16 Burst results for "Richard Marles"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In an interview this weekend also from Singapore where it was the Shangri -La dialogue Bloomberg Television ran with Bloomberg Television Australia's Defense Minister Richard Marles says it's possible to be an ally with the US while also having a productive relationship with China Marles though did express concern with China's military buildup in the region especially without any reassurances as to why they're doing it Australia finds itself in a situation many nations do which is have a military alliance with US the while having to maintain ties with China's economic engine global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2 hundred journalists and analysts in over 120 countries I'm Dan Schwartzman and this is Bloomberg back to you Brian all right thanks very much Dan well Bloomberg opinion columnist Mohamed El -Erian thinks that there's an elevated risk of the Fed making a policy error his remarks follow the latest US jobs data and some of the recent suggesting communications that the Fed would pause or skip a rate hike at the June meeting here's El -Erian speaking with Bloomberg's Jonathan Farrow the US economy remains a major engine of job creation and that is good news we also know that the US economy is increasingly realistic between what's happening in manufacturing in general and what's happening in services and and all this including today's job reports complicates the Fed's policy challenge whether you call it a skip a pause or hike it's certainly complicated and I must tell you it's going to amplify already lot the high criticism about communication people are not going to be scratching their head why did they guide the market so strongly towards a skip ahead of this report and ahead of the next CPI. Governor Jefferson earlier this week skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming. Mohammed have we got Governor Jefferson back on the phone do you think the message would change? age I don't know I don't know I mean you know I smile a little bit because thinking that one month of data is going to make a huge difference is I think fooling yourself they have framed it that way and it's a shame because I think it's such a narrow framing John we all are now discussing is it a skip is it a pause when there are such bigger issues involved and that's the risk of being excessively risk excessively data dependent is that you get stuck in a in a sort of smaller and smaller corner and the data will pin you there and as the data becomes fluid it pins you there even more you've heard me say over and over again we need a strategic view of this economy from the Fed and they need to to to to know where they want to end up because right now they excessive independent you've complained about the Fed not taking a strategic view as a market participant can you take a strategic view on the direction of things so I worry that this Fed will end up pushing the economy into recession I worry that this will happen for the three reasons you know one is the lack not just of a strategic view but of a valid monetary framework two is I think they have the wrong inflation target and three they're trying to restore their credibility so that's the concern otherwise I think it will be easier to navigate but the risk of yet another policy error I fear is quite high before we had this data your expectation was rate hike in what is it now so if they are serious about that 2 % target given the data they should hike okay if they are true to their word they should hike because they are data dependent and the data has been hotter than expected the surprise index drawn is at levels seen for a very long time pointing consistently to stronger than expected data so if they are true to their word and true to their target they should hike I would not hike but then I have sort of broader issues as you know in terms of how I would be thinking of monetary policy here as Mohammed El -Erian the Bloomberg opinion columnist and the former CEO of PIMCO and looking at the bond market here at the moment the yield on the 10 -year US treasury is at 3 .72 % so up three basis points on a Monday morning the two -year at 454 this is Bloomberg. broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio in New York Bloomberg 1130 to Washington DC Bloomberg 99 .1 to Boston
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Hiatus of several weeks, that federal grand jury that is hearing evidence in President Trump's handling of classified documents is getting ready to meet again. Again, we keep hearing little leaks here and there of evidence. Could be pretty for bad the former president. Ukraine continuing to get ready for a widely expected counteroffensive to try to drive Russian forces out of their country as the army receives more and more Western armaments. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on cranes expected counteroffensive. There's no certainty in any of this and so we need to be prepared to continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. Austin was speaking as he concluded a two -day trip to the Shangri -La dialogue. In Next stop will an be interview India. this weekend also from Singapore with Bloomberg Television, Australia's Defense Minister Richard Marles says it's possible to be an ally with the US while also having a productive relationship with China. Marles did express concern with China's military buildup in the region especially without any reassurance as to the purpose of it. Australia finds itself in a kind of an awkward situation many nations are kind of facing, which is to have a military alliance with the maintaining US while ties with China's economic engine. India says a faulty electronic signaling system was the behind reason the country's deadliest rail accident in almost three decades. The number of dead standing currently at 88. Aditya Kumar Chaudhary from Indian Railways says progress is being made on repairing the rail lines. All the couches, capsized couches and wagons have been removed from site. Now the major part left is a distortion of track. An express passenger train colliding with a stationary freight train with them both being hit by another express passenger train which was traveling from the opposite direction. India's outdated rail system is one of the largest in the world. It carries hundreds of millions of people each month. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking at a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem says that Iran continues to lie to the International Atomic Energy Agency in regards to the nature of the country's nuclear ambitions. Back in March IAEA inspectors had raised an alarm after finding uranium particles enriched to 84 % levels of purity. That's just 6 % away from what's needed to build nuclear weapons. This past week the agency said it had no further questions of the Islamic Republic after accepting Iran's explanation. Netanyahu says the IAEA has shown ineffectual conduct towards Iran. Flying is going to be getting more expensive this summer. That's according to corporate travel manager American Express Global Business Travel which analyzed tens of thousands of client transactions on international flights to and from Asia. A typical New York to Hong Kong flight and economy class cost now more than twice as much as it did in 2019 and almost a third more than last year. A lung cancer drug from AstraZeneca has shown promising results. According to data released by the Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago, Tenriso reduced the risk of death by 51 % in patients with an early stage type of cancer after tumor
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Many were actually killed in the protest nor has it accepted any responsibility for the tragedy Indonesia's defense minister Prabowo Subianto has proposed a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine that features a demilitarized zone operating the two sides the zone would consist of both sides pulling back 15 kilometers from their forward positions where the gap being filled with United Nations troops Western security officials along with the Ukrainians have criticized the plan while China has praised the idea global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2 ,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries I'm Dan Schwartzman and this is Bloomberg back to you Rish all right well let's at have a look defense chiefs from around the world as they gathered in Singapore for Asia's largest security forum is the III Shangri SS -La dialogue discussion centering around major threats in the region as tensions rise between China and the West now we did hear from the Australian defense minister Richard its economic and security relationship with China while maintaining its long -standing defense alliance with the United States small spoke to our very own as in the army obviously we want to see and more dialogue and dialogue matters which is why the Shangri -La dialogue I think is so important and so being enduring over the course of its history but I would say you know the common waters international waters international airspace are there for everyone and the United States is operating in accordance with its rights within those waters and it's important that those be maintained as open waters because because it's important that the global rules -based order be maintained in this region and certainly from an Australian perspective when we think about where our interest lies our interest lies in the rules of the road and that means freedom of navigation it means freedom of overflight and it means that in a place like the South China Sea for example where most of our trade transits so I don't think there's any other message than the need for the rules to be applied to every country. We heard from Prime Minister Albanese urging countries in the region to avoid getting caught between the US and China I mean until recently one would be forgiven for thinking that Australia is firmly on the side of the US strategically is Australia trying to get to the middle in terms of US -China relations. Well we have an alliance with the United States which has been in place since really since the end of the Second World War and formally since the 1950s. It's central to our national security and it's central to our world view and we're very committed to the Alliance and none of that changes. We are obviously a country of the region and our largest trading partner is China. We value a productive relationship with China and to we seek deal in our relationship with China on its own terms and I think it's complex that relationship because there are security anxieties that we have in respect of China. We are seeing a very significant buildup of its military and that's happening without a sense of strategic reassurance to us but to the region and the world about its purpose and we've got our issues. That said, we do have a significant economic relationship with China and we want to manage that as well. Ultimately this is actually the reason why dialogue matters. you How navigate those two things is complex, it's not obvious, it requires discussion and we want to have it. But the question is whether or not Australia can be seen as a neutral party when defence ministers before you have said that it is inconceivable that Australia will not defend Taiwan should China attack it. Well firstly I suppose in terms of Taiwan our position is that we don't to want see any change to the status quo across the Taiwan Straits. That is our very firm position and that's in the context of having a long -standing one China policy which has been the bipartisan policy in Australian politics going right back to the the mid 1970s. So that's where we stand in relation to Taiwan. Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles there chatting with Bloomberg's Haslinda Amin. 28 minutes past the hour this is Bloomberg. Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg active broker studio in New York Bloomberg 1130 to Washington DC Bloomberg 99 .1 to Boston Bloomberg 1061 to San Francisco Bloomberg 960 to the country Sirius 6M to 119 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloombergradio .com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. We are counting you down to the start of the trading day in Asia for the trading week. I'm Richard Sullivan and I'm Brian Curtis here in Hong Kong and we're looking at Asian equity futures all broadly higher morning. this Nikkei futures at 32 ,020 and we closed at 31 ,500 change on Friday so you can see this scope for a big move to the upside although S &P E -minis are trading just up a tenth of one percent. More on the markets coming up but for now some of the top stories of the hour. Well we had another winning week for stocks S &P 500 index beginning the new trading week above 4 ,200 let's get more on the earnings backdrop from Bloomberg's Charlie Pettis. The frenzy over artificial intelligence had investors pouring money into
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The debt ceiling legislation without a ceremony in the Oval Office that averting a potential debt which could have plunged the country into recession the deal limits federal spending for two years and suspends the debt ceiling till after the 2024 election the bipartisan plan was hammered out in negotiations last weekend between the president and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy Democratic Congresswoman Mikey Sherrill of New Jersey says that bipartisan a approach is what people want we've come out of some of the most partisan times in our nation's history and the majority of the country I think senses that that is not how to things get accomplished that's not how Congress should work. Congresswoman Sherrill was speaking to ABC. China's Defense Minister Lee Shang -Fu struck a defiant tone while speaking at the Shangri -La dialogue in Singapore blaming Washington of stroking confrontation through its support of Taiwan while building military alliances in the region Lee's comes on the heels of a dangerous situation in the Taiwan Straits when a Chinese warship came within a reported 150 yards of colliding with the US destroyer. Lee also mentioned once again that Taiwan is part of China and that the country's military would not tolerate any incidents that would lead to a divided country. Lee though did strike a softer tone at the end of speech his saying that quote the world is big enough for countries including China and the US to grow together. interview In this an weekend from Singapore with Bloomberg Television Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles says it's possible to an be ally with the US while also having productive relationships with China. Marles though did express concern with China's military built up in the region especially without any reassurances as to the purpose of it. Australia finds itself in a situation many nations do which is to have a military alliance with the US while maintaining ties with China's economic engine. India says a faulty electronic signalling system was the reason behind the country's deadliest rail attack accident excuse me in almost three decades. The number of dead stands at 288 with crews clearing the mangled wreck the off tracks. An express passenger train collided with a stationary freight train with both then being hit by another express passenger train which was traveling from the opposite direction. India's outdated rail system is one of the largest in the world carries that hundreds of millions of people each month. Thai Airways is preparing to begin talks with aircraft manufacturers to purchase 30 new wide
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bonds with the United States by bringing our alliance into the 21st century. Now this comes in the wake of what the U.S. State Department says, Chinese ships carried out what it describes as a dangerous maneuver coming within 50 yards of the Philippine boat leading to near collision, it says an armed attack on Philip armed forces aircraft or naval vessels will trigger U.S. defense commitments, Beijing has said maneuvers were professional and restrained and says the U.S. must not interfere. Australia's defense minister Richard marles of citing economic coercion and a motivator as a motivator for a revamped military. The threat is not that we are about to be invaded. But our exposure to economic coercion and to coercion from an adversary is greater and the potential for that coercion going forward is much more significant. And that's where the threat lies. Morals on ABC Australia says a nation has to be prepared as trade with China has increased in the recent past and is more and more reliant on fuel from Russia. So he says a decisions will be difficult but defense has to be focused on protection at this point. Here's a chance that Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and U.S. president Joe Biden will be on the sidelines of the meeting of Pacific leaders in Papua New Guinea in May, both have been invited the U.S. and its allies have so far avoided any pressure on India over its close ties with Russia. Russia is a key supplier of weapons and energy to India. Age, Biden, White House, is age a part of the problem. Does he have to fight it? Democratic senator Chris Coons says politically, not a promise, not a problem at all. I think Joe Biden is agile is capable. His record of leadership both at home and abroad makes him eminently qualified. And we should be focusing some on the wisdom and experience he brings to the job in addition to the accomplishments he's had. Now coons on ABC has heard on Bloomberg says compare his mental acuity to Donald Trump and Trump comes out the big loser. Chinese authorities reportedly have been preparing to release journalist fang bin who disappeared three years ago this after public public release videos of overcrowded hospitals and bodies during the COVID-19 outbreak relative of Fung said it was due to happen yesterday, there has been no confirmation of any kind. In San Francisco, I met Baxter this is Bloomberg, right, Paul. All right, thanks very much for that Ed do stay with us. We're going to be joined by
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"App. This is a Bloomberg business flash. Well, a Mazda modestly positive tone in the markets in Asia today, even though we'll have limited action, strong earnings lifted Wall Street at the end of last week that seems to be feeding through, investors watching with interest though news of a bid for first republic bank will report that as soon as we get it, many Asian markets closed today for the May Day holidays, Australia and Japan will trade. Australian future is up about three quarters of a percent. Nikkei futures are actually down a little but still trading at a surplus or at a higher level than what the cash flows was but we might expect a couple of hundred points of upside once Tokyo starts to trade. In China, it's worth noting the big divergence between the services and the manufacturing sectors that was borne out by the weaker manufacturing PMI of 49.24 April while the non manufacturing came in at 56.4 on the services side, tourism and consumer activities rose sharply on the first day of the 5 day Labor Day holiday. The railway operator expects traffic to rise to a record 120 million passengers for the extended period, and that would be up 20% from the same period pre-pandemic back in 2019. And China's home sales rose for a third month in April, adding to signs of recovery, the value of new home sales by the biggest developers rose 31.6% from a year earlier. So if you think about that, you might think that, well, the default position would be the news better than expected. However, we do hear from Chinese leaders they came out on Friday from the polar beer with a cautious approach and the need for more policy stimulus. So that must mean that the net reading. It's perhaps a little on a negative side in terms of growth. And that is a check of markets. Let's get headline news now 42 minutes past the hour. Here's Ed Baxter, and all right, thank you, Brian, Australia's defense minister Richard marles deciding economic coercion as a motivator for revamped military says emphasis on protection, ahead of president Ferdinand Marcos junior visit to the U.S. State Department has put on a statement saying that the U.S. will defend the transit in the South China Sea from a Chinese attack. Republicans are calling on president but Joe Biden to come to the table and talk about debt ceiling and spending. Democrats say a weakens a fight against opioids cuts child care, closes social security offices, restricts healthcare, reduces efforts to bring back jobs from the U.S. to the U.S. from China. And Chinese authorities reportedly have been preparing to release journalists fang Ben who disappeared three years ago. He publicized videos of an overcrowded hospital and bodies during the COVID-19 outbreak. Japan's prime minister fumio Acacia is approval rating has surged by 8 and a half percent to 46.6% the last month. This is a Kyoto news pole. Global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and over 120 countries in San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter and this is Bloomberg and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"News is next. The U.S. is reaffirming its commitment to protect the Philippines from any aggression on the part of China at Baxter has more from the Bloomberg newsroom in San Francisco. Yeah, that's it, dog ahead of president Ferdinand Marcos junior visit to the U.S., State Department has put out a statement saying the U.S. will defend the transit has a video of an incident in which the Chinese ships carried out what it describes as dangerous maneuvers coming within 50 yards of the Philippine boat leading to a near collision. It says an armed attack on Philip armed forces aircraft or naval vessels would trigger U.S. defense commitments. Beijing has said maneuvers were professional and restrained and says the U.S. must not interfere, by the way. President Marcos is in the air on the way. Australia's defense minister Richard marles is citing economic coercion as a motivator for a revamped military. The threat is not that we are about to be invaded. But our exposure to economic coercion and to coercion from an adversary is greater and the potential for that coercion going forward is much more significant. And that's where the threat lies. Morals on ABC Australia says the nation has to be prepared as trade with China has increased in the recent past and is more and more reliant on fuel from Russia. So he says decisions will be difficult but defense has to be focused on protection. There's a chance that Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and U.S. president Joe Biden will meet on the sidelines of the meeting of Pacific island leaders in Papua New Guinea in May, both have been invited the U.S. and its allies so far have avoided pressuring India over its close ties with Russia. Russia is a key supplier of weapons and energy to India. Age, Biden, White House is age part of a problem for him while democratic senator Chris Coons says no problem at all. I think Joe Biden is agile is capable. His record of leadership both at home and abroad makes him eminently qualified. And we should be focusing some on the wisdom and experience he brings to the job in addition to the accomplishments he's had. Cones on ABC has heard here on Bloomberg says compared to mental acuity to Donald Trump, and Trump comes out the definite loser. With President Biden's announcement to run this week, former democratic foe, senator Bernie Sanders is out in his answering questions about the path part of going forward, Sanders on CNN here. It's the Democrats and the president have got to be stronger on working class issues. They've got to make it clear that we believe in a government represents all not just the few. Take on the greed of the insurance companies and drug companies, Wall Street, all the big money interests and start delivering for
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Absolutely, this is a day where we've got holidays closing down a lot of markets, but we'll still get some interesting reads today. The equities that will trade looks at to move higher today after we had strong earnings boosting Wall Street at the end of last week. So those numbers, the S&P 500 up 8 tenths of a percent feeding through. The futures for a lot of markets, even though don't trade today are in the green. And also pushing hang seng index futures back up over 20,000, but again, we'll be looking at selected trading throughout Australia and Japan will trade nikkei futures at the moment. 29,075, that's about 200 points above the last cash close in Tokyo and Australian futures trading up about three quarters of 1%. We did have a little bit of strength in the Bloomberg dollar spot index. And the latest read on dollar yen, one 36, 26, so considerable weakness after the BOJ meeting on Friday. One of the notions there is that they've launched this review that will take one year to one year and a half. And that kind of suggested that kind of review isn't really tied to a result. And so thinking weakness in the yen likely and that's what we saw over the past couple of days of trading. The last yield on the ten year treasury with a 3.42%, the two year at 4%, WTI crude $76 and 33 cents a barrel down about 6 tenths of a percent in the latest trading. So interesting to watch what we see having relation to China today, given the mixed state of the weekend. We'll get you more on that in about 15 minutes, Doug to you. All right, Brian, thanks. Well, in the states we're waiting for word from federal regulators on a solution to address the problems at first republic bank we are hearing, the FDIC has asked banks including JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services and Citizens Financial Group to submit their bids if no agreement is reached. Regulars would still have the option of seizing first republic, taking ownership of the bank. Now, democratic representative ro Khanna is district includes parts of Silicon Valley and the Bay Area. He weighed in earlier today on CBS face the nation. I think that the FDIC needs to look at the lowest cost alternative. That's their mandate. And right now they may need to work with banks and private capital to save first republic. I mean, that is the state we're in. That is ro Khanna, U.S. representatives speaking earlier, heard on the Bloomberg by the way a possible option for republic is for regulators to use a bid for so called open market solution that would avoid formally declaring first republic of failure. Now the stock has declined quite substantially leaving the firm with about $650 million, $650 million in market value, and that has made such a takeover somewhat somewhat a little more feasible. Federal Reserve policymakers meet this week with another interest rate increase considered likely Bloomberg's Larry kofsky reports. The fed steepest rate tightening campaign in decades is nearing an end. Officials will be considering how much more pain they need to inflict to restore price stability while trying not to send the economy off a cliff or push an already creaking banking system into crisis. The fed's two day meeting begins Tuesday, similar deliberations are likely as officials at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet over the next two weeks. I am Larry kofsky, Bloomberg daybreak Asia. We go to China next where economic data seems to be sending some mixed signals we have more from Bloomberg's Bonnie au. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted last month. The official PMI for 51.9 to 49.2 in March, and growth in services and construction slowed more than expected. The non manufacturing PMI came in at 56.4 down from 58.2, but as the 5 day Labor Day holiday begins, China's tourism and consumer activities roast sharply. Data showed major retail and catering company sales jumped 21% from a year ago. The conflicting data show is still unclear if the recovery can be sustained. In Hong Kong, I'm Bonnie L Bloomberg daybreak, Asia. Australia's defense minister Richard marles is citing economic hit coercion as a motivator for a revamped military. At Baxter has global news now in
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"News home. Yeah, that's exactly right, vani, thank you ahead of president Ferdinand Marcos junior visit of the U.S., State Department has put out a statement saying the U.S. will defend the transit. It has a video of an incident in which one of the Chinese ships carried out what it describes as dangerous maneuvers coming within 50 yards of the Philippine boat leading to a near collision, it says. Now, says an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, aircraft or naval vessels would trigger U.S. defense commitments Beijing has said that its maneuvers were professional and restrained and that the U.S. must not interfere. Australia's defense minister Richard marles is citing economic coercion as a motivator for a revamped military. The threat is not that we're about to be invaded. But our exposure to economic coercion and to coercion from an adversary is greater and the potential for that coercion going forward is much more significant. And that's where the threat lies. Morals on ABC, Australia, says the nation has to be prepared as trade with China has increased in the recent past, and it's more and more reliant on fuel from Russia as well. So he says decisions will be difficult but the defense has to be focused on protection. Well, there's a chance that Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and U.S. president Joe Biden will meet on the sidelines of the meeting and the Pacific leaders at the papa New Guinea in May both have been invited. U.S. and its allies have so far avoided pressuring India over its close ties with Russia, Russia is a key supplier of weapons and energy to India. Age, Biden, White House, is age part of a problem, well democratic senator Chris coon says, no, it's not a problem at all. I think Joe Biden is agile is capable. His record of leadership both at home and abroad makes him eminently qualified. And we should be focusing some on the wisdom and experience he brings to the job in addition to the accomplishments he's had. Coons on ABC has heard here on Bloomberg says that compare his mental acuity to Donald Trump and Trump comes out the biggest loser. With President Biden's announcement to run this past week, former democratic foe, senator Bernie Sanders is out in answering questions about the path of the park going forward. Now, this is a Sanders on CNN. So Democrats and the president have got to be stronger on working class issues. They've got to make it clear that we believe in a government represents law, not just the few. Take on the greed of the insurance companies, the drug companies, Wall Street, all the big money interest, it's thought delivering for working class people. You do that. I think Biden is going to win in a landslide. Sanders is not a candidate at this time around. And Republican senator Tim Scott says he'll make an announcement about his decision to run or not for president on May 22nd. In San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter and this is Bloomberg, right, bunny. All right, thank you. We are waiting on news about first republic. We think we'll probably get something this evening before major U.S. markets open in the morning, but also. Given that there's many vacationing
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Do. Thank you very much, Doug, Australia's defense minister Richard marles, is citing economic coercion as a motivator for a revamped military. He says, emphasis on protection. Ahead of president Ferdinand Marcos junior visit to the U.S., State Department has put out a statement saying the U.S. will defend the transit in the South China Sea from any Chinese attack. Republicans are calling out on president Joe Biden to come to the table to talk about debt ceiling and spending Democrats say that their package weakens. The Republicans package weakens the fight against opioids, cuts child care, closes social security offices, restricts, healthcare, reduces efforts to bring jobs back to the U.S. from China. Chinese authorities reportedly have been preparing to release journalists who disappeared three years ago. He publicized videos of overcrowded hospitals and bodies during COVID-19 outbreak. And Japan's prime minister fumio Keisha's approval rating has surged by 8 and a half percent to 46.6% in the last month. This is a Kyoto news poll. Global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries in San Francisco. I met Baxter and this is Bloomberg. All right, Bonnie. And thank you back with in just a little bit. Joining us now though is Adam Hague Bloomberg finance editor we want to talk more about the latest developments on first republic and we're waiting really for the latest developments Adam reports suggesting that JPMorgan and PNC this is different reports. They're both reported to be in the lead on bidding, and then there is the third option, which is that FDIC just puts it into receivership. What's the most likely outcome now? Well, I think what we know now is that those options are on the table. There's obviously quite frantic work going on behind the scenes with the authorities who are involved in trying to negotiate this process because you had such a precipitous decline in the stock price on Friday that this became such a brought the issue to a head so quickly. So they clearly do want a resolution before U.S. markets open on Monday morning. Of course, they've got like a little bit less of a challenge in Asia with some of the closures today, but they obviously want to get this resolved. And I think to that point that we're hearing from our previous guest there. The most likely option at this point seems to be some kind of seizure of the bank and then assail to a willing bidder, but clearly there's not a huge cue of private enterprises who want to take this on. But of course, any asset at some price has a value to a business. So clearly they will get they do want to get this done and that seems the most likely option. But there are other options still. And maybe at the 11th hour, you just get a straight sale to one of these bidders. So it really is watch the tape at the moment. The next two or three hours I would suggest it a fairly critical and of course we'll keep you updated that. One thing that's still puzzling and none of us are there, so it's very hard to know and to offer a lot of insight into what's happening real time. But one thing that is puzzling to me is why we haven't seen more Asian banks in the same kind of predicament in that most banks have a lot of low yielding loans. And on the books, maybe you hold them, but they're not worth much. Obviously it's hard to move them. We haven't seen that really in Australia in plenty of other parts of Asia, have we, Adam. No, indeed, it's a very good observation and one that's been that people have kind of gone. Well, why is that the case? What have they learned from going all the way back to the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s, some of the repercussions of how regulators reacted here post 2008. A lot of these banks as you quite correctly identify are sitting on some fairly large paper losses. I mean, if you think about some of these Japanese banks that have huge holdings of treasuries and fairly plain villain government bond securities from other places around the world, they've been significantly hit over the last 12 months as rates of ramped up around the world. So clearly that that part of the equation is a problem at many lenders, but what we haven't seen here is depositors running for the hills. And of course, that's been one of the main reasons that's exacerbated the issues that are plaguing the U.S. regional lending environment is that those depositors in a very short space of time over often left and left en masse and that's not what we've something we've seen in this part of the world. That is a very good point. Out of time, but this is a story that will be with us all day today. I'm sure Adam, thanks very much for joining us this morning live. Adam Hague. Bloomberg finance
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Next. With Dan schwarzman, is Donald Trump about to be arrested, Dan with the details. Well, Michelle, that's the $1 million question, but according to Donald Trump, he claims he will be arrested on Tuesday. The former president calling for protests on social media as he claims Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg is going to have him arrested. A potential rest will be in connection with Trump's alleged hush money payment to porn star stormy Daniels to cover up the alleged affair. Now reports say that city state and federal officials have been meeting in regards to security measures if Trump is indicted and brought to New York, senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts says if there are protests she hopes they're peaceful. Violence is never the right answer. And I always worry about it. But this is another case of Donald Trump just trying to advance the interests of Donald Trump, not of the rest of the nation. Let's be clear about what's going on here. No one is above the law, not even the former president of the United States. Warren was speaking on ABC this week earlier today. Chinese president Xi Jinping arrive in Moscow Monday to be in a three day state visit Beijing has been trying to characterize it as a quote visit for peace. She's going to be meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in his first visit to the country since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began last February. The Kremlin says the two leaders are going to sign declarations, strengthening the relationship of the countries, along with your strategic partnership. She is then expected to hold a video conference with Ukrainian president Vladimir zelensky after he meets with Putin will be the first meeting of any sort between the two. Did Australia promise to support the U.S. in any military conflict involving Taiwan, Australia's defense minister Richard marles telling ABC that is not the case and that the country did not promise the support as part of the August submarine deal. The U.S. is selling three to 5 Virginia class nuclear attack submarines while Australia and England are going to build a new subclass together. Marl says that the U.S. did not even ask for support if a war was fought against China over Taiwan. President Biden speaking with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier today by an expressing his concern over the government's plan to overhaul the Israeli judicial system, which has led to weeks of widespread protests. The plan would roll back the independence, the judicial system and Joyce from the country's political system. Reports say Netanyahu told Biden that Israel remain a quote strong and vibrant democracy. Shazam fury of the gods opening number one in the box office, but did not do as well as the original Shazam, which opened back in 2019, the sequel pulling in 30 and a half $1 million compared to the original. That opened with a gross of 53 and a half million, just three years ago, finished in second this weekend, scream 6, they brought in 17 and a half million creed three rounding at the top three. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over a 120 countries. I'm Dan Schwartzman and this is Bloomberg, Brian. Dan, thanks very much. The time here, 9 minutes past the hour let's get to our guest, Vanessa Chan, head of Asian fixed income investment directing at fidelity international and with us right here in our studios Vanessa. Thanks for coming in. One day to do it. I guess, you know, this morning we've been talking a lot about faith versus fundamentals, normally we like to focus on the fundamentals, but you have these periods where you have to focus so much more on sentiment. So this deal that was done over the weekend, the resolution to Credit Suisse. Does it shore up confidence in your view? Or in a way, is it almost the reverse? I think let's take a step back in terms of what's happening in the global market so the financial markets for the past week or so. So we have to be SVB. We also have credit Swiss. Both event does increase the volatility across the financial markets. And it naturally raised concerns about the financial stability of the financial system. And if you really wanted to ask what is the key driver behind us, is actually to tighter policy that would be in the experiencing from fed, be it in terms of the kind of liquidity as well as the higher rates, which naturally will means that some of the cracks is the ability of a system will probably be exposed. And that's where we start seeing increased risk of the financial stability. We do think that the overall financial sector, particularly the larger banks in the much better shape now compared to what happened back in 2008 and 2009. And I think we have to really see that regulators and government have come shift into intervention to kind of instill new confidence in the market. So hopefully to deal that between UBS and credit wills will bring in a bit more confidence across the financial markets, but we'll need to see the kind of reaction that we can get today in the next few days as well. Vanessa, let me ask you about part two of what I'm seeing as reasons for calm this morning, hopefully. I was three years ago that the fed made similar swap lines arrangements of course we see these come in times of financial
AP News Radio
China says AUKUS on 'dangerous path' with nuclear subs deal
"China's foreign ministry has set a deal involving the U.S. and the UK in which Australia will buy nuclear attack submarines is a sign the three nations are traveling down a dangerous path. In a daily news briefing, foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wei bin said. The latest joint statement issued by the U.S. UK and Australia shows that the three countries have gone further down the wrong and dangerous path for their own geopolitical self interest in Canberra, Australia's defense minister, Richard marles, justified the arrangement. We are witnessing the biggest conventional military build up that we have seen since the end of the Second World War. And it's happening within our region. And it is not Australia, which is doing that. And we need to respond to this. A failure to do so would see us be condemned by history. I'm Karen Chammas
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"China is warning the United States in the strongest fashion yet over the risk of war over Taiwan particularly use of the Taiwan straits Let's get to it back to he's got the story in Yeah that's exactly what it is Brian China's defense minister a wave function saying that it is up to the U.S. to improve the bilateral relationship saying they're at a crucial juncture at this point Bloomberg Steven engel reports the defense minister's language is stronger than it has been Now it has been long that Beijing's a surgeon that Taiwan strait is part of China's exclusive economic zone However we're hearing from military sources that it is rarely brought up in military to military talks as a main talking point But increasingly now with the rhetoric ramping up the Taiwan strait is increasingly being called on as a no go zone for the United States by Beijing authorities And that is alarming U.S. defense officials Yeah U.S. has sailed straight for years U.S. seeking support in Asia over the weekend reassuring nations they do not need to join a coalition against China defense secretary Lloyd Austin saying the country should be free to choose free to prosper free to chart their own course He said there is no need to pick sides Australia seems to be taking the same tact defense minister Richard marles and talking with Juliet at the shangri la summit in Singapore says Australia is seeking a path If we engage with energy if we seek to place the interests of the Pacific people first and there are lots of challenges that the countries of the Pacific face in terms of development and Australia is in a unique position to assist If we do all of that we will be the natural partner of choice for the countries of the Pacific but it's not something that we get by right We need to earn it Miles tells Juliet the new government is working very hard in being fully engaged in the Pacific South Korea says it will boost its defense capacity to boost its defenses against North Korea defense minister Lee Jong soup saying that the situation on the Peninsula poses a global threat and he says he wants to work closely with U.S. and Japan U.S. Senate is apparently found a compromise over gun safety at least something that can pass the Senate Democratic senator Richard blumenthal and ABC has heard here on Bloomberg says it can save lives We can build on it We can move forward with other common sense Hopefully bipartisan proposals after this one is passed our focus right now is making sure we have the legislative language and the 60 votes we need to pass it Now the bill includes giving grants to states to implement red flag laws which could potentially allow courts to remove guns from potentially dangerous owners and it could provide for more school safety as well as provision to improve background checks for younger gun buyers look into records of domestic violence abuse convictions and restraining orders It does as of now have the support of ten Republican senators which is needed to get it passed Beijing and Shanghai have resumed mass testing as COVID cases rise planned reopening of schools in the capital just days after the two ended social curves have been put in place for a month now back on Hong Kong cases are rising still as well Latest count day to today more than 800 U.S. House January 6th committee holds a hearing a hearing two is what it is tomorrow in the committee member Adam Schiff on ABC says the focus of this one There are connections between these white nationalist groups and some in Trump's orbit Yeah chef says it'll move from there to the documenting the chance of hang Mike Pence and whether Donald Trump contributed to those thoughts In San Francisco I'm Ed Baxter This is Bloomberg right Brian All right thanks very much Ed 38 minutes past the hour It's time for world sport So let's get to Dan Schwartzman sword but he worried about spending by consumers but for the big football clubs no problem in spending.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Kong on the other hand is going in the opposite direction with infections reporting out the highest tally in 6 weeks over the weekend 515 new Now it is the largest number of cases since April 23rd and Bloomberg's Emma O'Brien says that number may not be true And you've got to remember that that's probably just the tip of what we're actually seeing in Hong Kong with a lot of people probably not reporting Their infections particularly given the atmosphere has soured a little bit in Hong Kong with concerns about them rolling back home quarantine for people who diagnosed with new variants And those cases by the way most of them uncovered in a cluster at four bars in the city Australia says one of its surveillance planes was cut off by a Chinese fighter jet and international airspace over the South China Sea It says the RAAF P 8 was on routine maritime surveillance when it was interrupted by a J 16 fighter that resulted in a dangerous maneuver which they say caused a safety to their threat to their safety Now Australian defense minister Richard marles says the J 16 fighter had flown very very close side to side That's threatened the safety of both the Australian aircraft and crew Yeah marl says it then accelerated and cut across the nose of the P 8 settling in front at very close range He said at that moment it released a bundle of chaff under which contained small pieces of aluminum some of which were ingested in the engine of the P 8 miles says Australia was operating completely within its rights under international law And we're not going to be deterred by this incident from conducting those activities in the future because it's fundamentally important to Australia's national interest Yeah he says the government has filed a complaint with the Chinese government and this will not deter those missions North Korea has fired 8 short-range ballistic missiles over the weekend pushing it to a record number of launches in a single year North Korean military officials say they came from four different sites including an area very near Pyongyang's main airport and Bloomberg Stephen engel reports the south and U.S. apparently have responded now The South Koreans and the Americans jointly tested their own 8 missile tests this morning ground to ground tactical missiles at about four 45 this morning Monday morning for about ten minutes I assume in retaliation as they were test firing of course but in retaliation for those 8 tests by the North Koreans The Japan by the way are saying the North Korea tests fell into international waters U.S. suffering from more mass shootings over the weekend in Philadelphia popular tourist area police commissioner Danielle outlaw says three dead and more injured there An additional 11 victims were struck by gunfire These victims range in age from 17 to 69 years old Their conditions range from stable to critical The shooter is still at large in Chattanooga earlier 14 people were shot at a bar near a music festival in the U.S. the gun violence archive says more mass shootings this year than number of days U.S. president Joe Biden plans to head to Saudi Arabia just transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg on ABC has heard on Bloomberg says the oil companies are contributing to the problem of gas and oil shortage It's been very striking right now to see these oil companies who have become almost ridiculously profitable And you hear these oil executives on the record talking about how they're not going to increase production He says they have to step up and help at this point Japan's prime minister fumio should have considering attending a summit of leaders from NATO late this month to spur cooperation with the west over Russian invasion of Ukraine And Chinese astronauts have blasted off on 6 month mission to oversee a pivotal period of construction of its space station the final modules for the station are due to be launched in the next few months In San Francisco I'm Ed Baxter this is Bloomberg I'm back to you guys Thanks so much Ed Let's get now to I guess chilo is senior investment strategist Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas asset management on the line for us from Hong Kong I believe Correct me if I'm wrong but we are seeing I think that's what you're based We are seeing stocks open a little lower today because we had that robust U.S. jobs report leaving the door open for the fed to maintain this assertive stance on inflation I guess just what is the big conundrum here in terms of we've already heard these aggressive hikes tabled by the likes of lael brainard and how markets can kind of assess this Well indeed the in the short term I think the market will still be affected by the hawkishness of central banks in the developed markets areas led by the U.S. We are not likely to see inflation peak on two and other months maybe two So I think that the market is trying to price their aim So that's bad for the market bad news for the market But on the other hand there's this new concern about all these rates recently will push the U.S. economy and some other big economies in the recession later this year into next year So that recessionary concerns is also constraining market movements there So these are the bad news And then if you put a two bad news together we've got this so called stagflation which is very bad news for the market And I think at this point the markets are still trying to find its footing in assessing how likely recessions deflation are going to happen in the next few months while inflation is pretty much priced in The base case is that hopefully inflation will peak in the next two months or so and then the hawk is hawkishness of the central banks will come down and then the markets will be able to find its footing But before that happens we are likely to see more volatility with the downward bias in the major stock market Well I think to me the problem with your argument is that sure inflation can peak But the fed's not going to be satisfied with the peak The set that's got to see in fact evidence evidence is what read a master president Cleveland fed said on Thursday the day that low brainard said that would be a hard to see slowing down the pace of rate hikes by September I think that's the problem that he can peek But the fed wants to see it coming down The fed wants to see evidence behind the picking of inflation And that evidence have to come from a weakening or losing momentum in the labor market which is quite tight right now And the economy which is still quite robust So something has to give and this something is likely to be the economy the labor market which we have to soften in the coming months to convince the fact that the rates have delivered the expected impact on taming inflation So that's why as I said in the next two or three one or two months at least we won't see any Changing in policy direction by the fed It's still likely to be very hawkish We are still pricing in 50 basis point high in July and in June and July And the fed communication last week made it very clear that a great high pose in September is over the question And the pace of rates after July is still uncertain So that's the big thing that the market is facing She just very very quickly how ready are assets for the global tightening wave I mean it could be a doomsday scenario for currencies for example I think it's still going to be volatile with the downward bias currency wise we are likely to see the dollar remains strong because of the divergence and policy direction between developed markets led by the U.S. and the developing markets led by China which is an easing cycle So that's pretty much we are going to see in the next month or so All right We'll continue the conversation and talk more about China and Asia in.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Kong on the other hand is going in the opposite direction with infections reporting out the highest tally in 6 weeks over the weekend 550 new cases It is a most case count to the biggest largest case count I should say since April 23rd many of those cases covered in a cluster of four bars in the city Australia says one of its surveillance planes was cut off by a Chinese fire jet in international airspace over the South China Sea It says the RAAF P 8 was on routine maritime surveillance when it was intercepted by a J 16 fighter that resulted in a dangerous maneuver which they say caused a safety threat Australian defense minister Richard marles says the J 16 fighter had flown very close side to side That's threatened the safety of both the Australian aircraft and crew And marl says then it accelerated it cut across the nose of the P 8 settling in front at very close range at that moment than it released a bundle of chaff which contained small pieces of aluminum Some of which were ingested into the engine of the P 8 aircraft Miles says Australia was operating completely within its rights under international law And we're not going to be deterred by this incident from conducting those activities in the future because it's fundamentally important to Australia's national interest Yeah he says the government has filed complaint with the Chinese government will not deter those missions North Korea has fired 8 short-range ballistic missiles over the weekend pushing it to a record number of launches in a single year How South Korean military officials say they came from four different sites including an area very near Pyongyang's main airport And Bloomberg Stephen engel now reports the south and U.S. apparently have responded The South Koreans and the Americans jointly tested their own 8 missile tests this morning ground to ground tactical missiles at about four 45 this morning Monday morning for about ten minutes I assume in retaliation as they were test firing of course but in retaliation for those 8 tests by the North Koreans Yeah so I'll see your 8 missiles Japan by the way as saying the North Korean test fell into international waters The U.S. is suffering from a more mass shootings over the weekend Philadelphia popular tourist area police commissioner Daniel outlaw says three dead and more injured An additional 11 victims were struck by gunfire These victims range in age from 17 to 69 years old Their conditions range from stable to critical The shooter still at large and Chattanooga earlier 14 people were shot at a bar in their music festival in the U.S. the gun violence archive which tracks shootings says more mass shootings this year than the number of days in the United States As U.S. president Joe Biden plans to head to Saudi Arabia has transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg on ABC has heard here on Bloomberg says oil companies are contributing to the problem of those shortages It's been a very striking right now to see these oil companies who have become almost ridiculously profitable And you hear these oil executives on the record talking about how they're not going to increase production He says companies have to stop Japan's prime minister fumio kitchen is considering attending a summit of leaders from NATO late this month to spur cooperation with the west over the Russian invasion of Ukraine And Chinese astronauts have blasted off on a 6 month mission to oversee a pivotal period of construction of the space station the final modules for the station are due to be launched in the next few months In San Francisco I'm Ed Baxter this is Bloomberg all right back to Singapore and Juliet Thank you so much And let's get to our guest a ten is Morgan Stanley Asia economist joining us on the line from Hong Kong so we're hearing Beijing will be rolling back more of its COVID-19 restrictions Shanghai has been gradually reopening Does this mark a positive turning point for the Chinese economy we're looking out for the ty shin PMI service numbers and composite numbers for may today Yeah I think it's certainly marks a turning point In fact if you look at the MBS PMI which came out last week we have seen a marginal improvement but they still probably would remain below 50 which will still be in the contractionary phase I think all in I think the worst part of the economy trajectory is probably in second quarter of this year as we go into third quarter and as the reopening proceeds we should see a recovery but however that's it we will caution that this is likely to be a subpar recovery in that quarter before a more evident recovery is seen in fourth quarter of this year And this is predicated on our view that the COVID zero approach probably wouldn't be going away until fourth quarter of this year until we see a sufficiently high level of vaccination rate particularly amongst the elderly group of people You have cut your GDP forecast to tell us what they are because this likelihood of 5 and a half percent growth target very much seems out the window now Yes so we have actually revised downwards our GDP growth forecast for China this year to about 3.2% this year And next year we expect a 6.2% growth Now this really takes into account the view that second quarter we would see Q and Q decline of close to 3% year on year growth of about 0.5% and then a sub par recovery in third quarter as I was mentioning earlier on in a more evident recovery in fourth quarter of this year Now I think what we would be seeing going forward is that it appeals that policy makers are prioritizing production resumption And minimizing supply chain disruptions with all the closed loop management as well as the COVID testing So that part of the growth equation will come back earlier by given the lingering restrictions on mobile team and also non-essential services.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"richard marles" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The prior 72 hours the previous requirement was 48 hours Hong Kong on the other hand is going in the opposite directions with infections reporting out the highest tally in 6 weeks over the weekend 515 new It is the most cases since April 23rd many of those cases uncovered in a cluster at four bars in the city Australia says one of its surveillance planes was cut off by a Chinese fighter jet in international airspace over the South China Sea It says the RAAF was on routine maritime surveillance when it was intercepted by a J 16 fighter that resulted in a dangerous maneuver which they say caused a safety threat Australian offense minister Richard marles the says that J 16 fighter had flown very very close side to side That's threatened the safety of both the Australian aircraft and crew Says it then accelerated and cut across the nose of the PH setting in front very close range He said at that moment it realized a bundle of it released a bundle of chaff which contained small pieces of aluminum some of which were ingested into the engine of the P 8 Moral says Australia was operating completely within its rights under international law And we're not going to be deterred by this incident from conducting those activities in the future because it's fundamentally important to Australia's national interest He says government has filed complaint with the Chinese government and this will not deter those missions North Korea has fired 8 short-range ballistic missiles over the weekend pushing it to a record number of launches in a single year and we're not even half through the year South Korean military officials say they came from four different sites including an area very near Pyongyang's main airport all went into the water off the east coast This one day barrage as a largest in Kim largest in Kim's decade of power U.S. suffering from more mass shootings over the weekend Philadelphia popular tourist area police commissioner Daniel outlaw says three dead and more injured An additional 11 victims were struck by gunfire These victims range in age from 17 to 69 years old Their conditions range from stable to critical And the shooter is still at large In Chattanooga earlier 14 people were shot at a bar and music festival in the U.S. now the gun violence archive says more mass shootings this year than the number of days As U.S. president Joe Biden plans to head to Saudi Arabia his transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg on ABC has heard here on Bloomberg says oil companies are contributing to the problem of gas shortages It's been a very striking right now to see these oil companies who have become almost ridiculously profitable And you hear these oil executives on the record talking about how they're not going to increase production He says the companies have to step up and help me while congressman Adam Schiff says he doesn't think President Biden should go to Saudi Arabia Schiff on CBS has heard here on Bloomberg and until Saudi Arabia makes a radical change in terms of its human rights I wouldn't want anything to do with him Now I understand the degree to which Saudi Arabia controls oil prices I think that's a compelling argument for us to wean ourselves off of reliance on foreign oil and on oil More globally Schiff says he wishes the president wouldn't go Japan's prime minister fumio Keisha is considering attending a summit of leaders from NATO late this month to spur cooperation with the west over the Russian invasion of Ukraine Thai police have rescued 59 Rohingya refugees who were stranded on an abandoned southern island They were abandoned by people smugglers people smugglers close to the Malaysian border and at least 49 people have been killed in a container depot in Bangladesh It is described as a container blaze and as the latest incident that highlights the country's struggles with industrial safety In San Francisco I'm Ed Baxter This is Bloomberg Right Paul All right thanks very much Joining us this half hour We have Frank rabinsky He's chief macro strategist at Aegon asset management And Frank I want to start with that strong jobs report we saw in the U.S. has that changed the picture for you in terms of your expectations Around what we might see from the fed for the rest of the year Yes and thank you for having me back I don't think it really changes our expectation more than reaffirms And what do I say that It was still a very strong number I mean you look in right around 400,000 which is a very modest slowdown from where we were operating in kind of the four to four 50 range Job market is still very strong We're growing at three and a half 4% year over year which is I mean that's a very robust rate So we've haven't even started seeing the labor market come off yet And so I think when we have what that means for the fed we still see the fed two more 50 basis point hikes and then a couple of quarter point hikes after that And we see the fed at two 75 by the end of this year So definitely going into restrictive territory to get what share power wants is a reduction in aggregate demand to kind of help the healthy inflation picture out How much do you think that closely looking at the impact that we could have from the reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet here We're in uncharted waters and we had quantitative easing have a profound impact on asset prices Could we actually see a profound impact in a negative way on asset prices because of QT Great question And it's been extremely hard to quantify I mean there's a lot of academic papers out there that if you sum them up the difference is quite striking The way I look at it if QE was a tailwind QT is going to be a headwind So it's going to make it that much harder which is why we think there's a lot of recession risk in 23 because the fed I mean our view is that the neutral rate in the U.S. is around one in three quarters maybe 2% We have the fed at two 75 next year going into 3% the year after and the futures markets even higher than that And so if you put a three and a half three and a quarter three and a half percent funds rate on top of a massive QT which is starting this month that's a daunting prospect for an economy where you're already seeing demand destruction from higher prices and so we think it just makes the 23 very high recession risk and we think therefore you want to be kind of rotating into quality when it comes to where you want to be from an asset allocation perspective As rich pointed out we really are in on China borders when it comes to that balance sheet runoff have markets know it's coming but is it priced in Could there be more downside here for equities We think I mean not only from the QT side but just from the macro picture For Paul to get his clear and convincing evidence that inflation is retreating it's going to take a while I mean we get the CTI this Friday it's still going to be year over year in the high 5s but even on the shorter term of three month averages and stuff you're still looking at it probably a 5% rate But even the core PCE which is what the fed looks at because it's factors in substitution effect faster Even that's it at four 9 So you're still a very elevated rate and to bring that and we.