17 Burst results for "Rich Miller"

"rich miller" Discussed on WCPT 820

WCPT 820

02:08 min | 5 months ago

"rich miller" Discussed on WCPT 820

"Playing music music playing music playing music rich miller stephanie it's like this and like that and like this and uh it's like that and like this and like that and uh it's like this i like that like this and uh drake creep to the mic like a fan well it's like this and like that huh this is stephanie miller show is 57 minutes after the hour uh really quickly let's go to uh tanya in ohio tanya i've only got less than a minute hey tanya hi how you doing today i just wanted to say what f of hakim just please woke up and said he's a black panther would they know what racism was today if marjorie take election chain open waters up a chapter of um blm they know what racism is it can be being such hypocrite i'm going to judge robert justice robert says that racism is over i want to go into this neighborhood and just see how many blacks are there i'm not talking about the one with college children i'm not talking about the ones long the most he's talking about the people that are minorities in his neighborhood how many minorities graduated with his when they went this is dr anna pelic from total dentistry in palatine and streamwood i want to talk about empathy empathy plays a vital role in the dental profession everyday patients come into my clinic filled with anxiety sometimes it's visible sometimes it's not but i know it's there because i've experienced the same anxiety either in another dentist chair or during medical leaning procedure back in a chair with your mouth wide open and bright lights beaming down on you can be very scary i train every one of my team to be sensitive gentle and reassuring i remind them to recall a time when they were worried or anxious and how they would like to be comforted a practitioner can be professionally trained with academic accolades but if they aren't empathetic they're not serving their patients at total dentistry we give you what you need to feel comfortable more explanation, more time to relax, medication, or just a kind word because we've

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:28 min | 10 months ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Turn on the radio. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh, no. No, no, no. Honey, please. I'll do the driving drive on. I want to drive It's a question for drivers. This is the drive to the clubs. On Bloomberg radio. All right, everybody, we got about 17 minutes left in the trading session, keeping an eye on those markets. It does look like stocks taking another bit of a leg up, but it looks like for the most part, we've got 1% gains as we heard from Charlie on each of your major equity averages. Really, the NASDAQ, once again, the outperformer up about one and a half percent. All right, so let's get to it. Our drive to the closed guest is Dave Donna beady, and he's chief investment officer of CIBC private wealth management. They have roughly 93 billion in assets under management and he joins us once again on the phone from Baltimore Dave. Nice to have you here with Gina and myself. So what's top of mind for you when you think about what investors need to be doing or where the markets and asset classes might be going from here? Sure. So I think that the good news is that by year end, we expect higher equity prices. I think, though, that we have a bit of a challenge here over the next couple of months as good as the momentum has been so far in 2023. I do think that we have a likelihood of a recession coming probably later this year, which tells me that at current valuations, markets don't quite have that priced in yet. So we do see one more potential down leg in this bear market in the short term. So some caution is appropriate. I think today for investors, but we do think we're setting up for a beginning of a new bull market in the second half of the year and interestingly what is likely to prompt that is the recession itself. It's found strange sometimes to be talking about recession and new bull market in the same rent, but that's actually usually how it works. And we've done the work on that going back over the last ten recessions. Dave, can you talk to us a little bit about how inflation and the broader inflation landscape plays into your strategy? I mean, I think the market is definitely very captivated by the will we are will we not fall into recession, how deep how long, but certainly inflation has played a really big part in the equity market outcomes. How do you see inflation playing out in terms of its equity market impact over the course of 2023? Sure. So we had actually a commodity hedge in place starting at early 2021 right through late 2022 because we believe that we're going to see this inflation acceleration. We took that out of our asset allocation models because we believe inflation is peaked and is on a downward trajectory. I expect that to continue here for at least a few more months. One of the things we need to look out for is kind of what happens next. In other words, inflation has come from 9 to 8 to 7 to 6 point something, probably where the CPI will be when it's reported tomorrow. Year over year. There's a chance that we go down quickly below 4%, but that inflation kind of gets stuck. And it doesn't go down to two or two and a half like the fed once. So that's a potential dilemma for the fed kind of later in the year that we have our eye on and we'll probably not be terribly well received by either stock or bond markets. And if inflation does get stuck in that three to 4% range, do you see that as consequential for your strategy longer term? Does that mean you lean into value? You lean into small caps. What are your thoughts on sort of a broad market strategy in a stuck kind of inflation landscape? Yeah, I think in a stock inflation landscape obviously income becomes more important. So we would emphasize dividend growers, not necessarily the highest yielding stocks, but the one that are going to be able to grow their dividends year in and year out and keep pace with a somewhat higher trend rate of inflation. And then I think around the core and then around that, you look for opportunities that are just inexpensive and today, small caps would certainly fit that definition, at least for a small allocation. And then the other area that's both cheap and where you can find more yield are in the international equity market, particularly the developed international markets which many of which have higher payout ratios than the S&P 500. Hey, you know, one thing Dave rich Miller, a Bloomberg business we wrote a story about, you know, forget the harder soft economic landing. Meet the rolling recession and this whole idea of you're going to see different segments of our world and our environment go through recession. We've already seen it with housing, right? Because of higher mortgage rates and that it'll move on to another recession. If we get that kind of recessionary environment, if you will, a rolling recession, does that change your thoughts about kind of the market maybe taking another one leg down and then getting ready for a new bull market? Could that impact it if we're in kind of a fuzzy, okay growth not a clear cut recessionary environment. Sure, but they growth recession. It would change it somewhat, but not a lot because we're not just interested in GDP and whether it's growing an artist is how does that translate into earnings? And as much as the earnings estimates for 2023 have been coming down over the last couple of months, we think they're still too high. And even a let's call it a growth recession or stagnation environment, something short of a recession were to happen. It's still probably going to translate into a down year for earnings. And we've looked at that possibility of the rolling sector recession and it could happen, but there are so many leading indicators that indicate a more general recession that it's kind of overwhelming. We've had an equity bear market. That's a very strong forward looking indicator. Deeply inverted yield curve. Obviously, tighter liquidity from a number of sources and even the old index of leading economic indicators has tilted way into negative territory. So it's possible. We don't have a statistical recession, but you have to very much build a this time it's different argument to say that. What are the biggest concerns within your client base right now? Are they also mostly concerned about recession or are they still talking inflation? You know, it's some of both and where those two things converge, obviously, is what is the fed going to do, right? How are they going to process inflation risk versus recession or so we get a lot of questions about how many more rate hikes and is the fed going to raise rates a little bit more and then pause or are they going to start cutting rates right away and our view there is that we've got probably two more rate hikes and then a multi month pause from the fed. So there may be a little bit of disappointment that the right from the last rate hike to rate cuts, which historically that happened before. I just don't think the circumstances we have now one because I don't think inflation is going to come down quite fast enough for the fed to be able to. So point being, we're going

Dave Donna beady CIBC private wealth management Dave Bloomberg Gina Dave rich Miller Charlie Baltimore fed S
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:43 min | 10 months ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Looking at the disinflation, but saying things could go back up. They're looking at what we are seeing for the forecast for the CPI that it's going to rise again after being subdued in December. And they want to make sure that people in the markets don't start pricing rate cuts and don't start thinking that the battle against inflation is one. They want people to understand they're going to raise rates again. And they're going to hold them there at a high level until they're sure we have disinflation that gets down to 2%. Tom barkin is coming in on CPI day. And so we will get his reaction to the CPI report and get a kind of feel for what the fed thinks about the numbers when they finally come out. Inflation definitely passed its peak, remains elevated, and it will remain elevated for some time. Is there a time frame he has given or you've seen from some of the other fed members about how long we can expect 5%. There's whispers now on Wall Street that it's going to be a 6% federal funds rate coming up. The whispers there, I think, are just sort of one off bets on the possibility that inflation goes back up and the fed has to react more strongly. We have a lot of data to CPI reports before the next fed meeting. So we'll get a much better handle on inflation. They will have better data to make decisions on. But at this point, the fed has forecast their last forecast was in December. The fed has forecast will get to around 3% inflation by the end of this year. Some on Wall Street think that it could come down much faster inflation swaps are pricing 2.4% by the end of the year. So it's absolutely true on Wall Street. You pays your money You take your choice. But the feeling is inflation is going to come down. It's just a question of how fast. Now, inflation coming down, also coming down. We're at more than 50 year low for unemployment. How does the fed reckon this robust jobs market with, you know, their efforts to lower inflation. How can they do it? Yeah, that's a problem for them because their whole model for the economy is based on the Phillips curve when unemployment gets very low. It's hard to find workers and you have to pay more money to attract people to come to work for you. So inflation goes up. But we're seeing inflation we're seeing some disinflation. We're seeing prices increasing at a slower pace and unemployment going down. Now those two things aren't supposed to happen at the same time. So that's why the fed is worried about a turn in inflation based on services prices. But it's very hard for everybody to figure out what's going on because the old models don't work. It's a totally different economic situation following the pandemic. First, it started with the tech sector, which apparently over hired during the pandemic. But just this past week, we saw Disney, the biggest media company in the world, 7000 jobs. It looks like it's going to go across several sectors, all these job cuts. Is that something good in a way? Well, it could be. There's an interesting story out this week from Bloomberg's rich Miller. It talks about the idea of rolling recessions that we hit a recession in real estate right away when mortgage prices shot up and mortgage bankers and realtors lost their jobs. And now we're starting to see it go into other categories. It went into tech and maybe it goes into manufacturing, but we're seeing mortgage rates come down. And so if homes sales start to recover, then that business recovers at a time when another one is falling, and you don't get a recession, you'd get the series of rolling mini recessions that keeps us above zero and makes things not so bad. Not so bad. We'll take it. Well, thank you, Michael Bloomberg's global and economics policy

fed Tom barkin Phillips rich Miller Disney Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:01 min | 10 months ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And you takes your choice. But the feeling is inflation is going to come down. It's just a question of how fast. Now, inflation, coming down, also coming down. We're at more than 50 year low for unemployment. How does the fed reckon this robust jobs market with their efforts to lower inflation? How can they do it? Yeah, that's a problem for them because their whole model for the economy is based on the Phillips curve when unemployment gets very low. It's hard to find workers and you have to pay more money to attract people to come to work for you. So inflation goes up. But we're seeing inflation we're seeing some disinflation. We're seeing prices increasing at a slower pace and unemployment going down. Now those two things aren't supposed to happen at the same time. So that's why the fed is worried about a turn in inflation based on services prices. But it's very hard for everybody to figure out what's going on because the old models don't work. It's a totally different economic situation following the pandemic. First, it started with the tech sector, which apparently over hired during the pandemic. But just this past week, we saw Disney, the biggest media company in the world, 7000 jobs. It looks like it's going to go across several sectors, all these job cuts. Is that something good in a way? Well, it could be. There's an interesting story out this week from Bloomberg's rich Miller. It talks about the idea of rolling recessions that we hit a recession in real estate right away when mortgage prices shot up in mortgage bankers and realtors lost their jobs. And now we're starting to see it go into other categories. It went into tech and maybe it goes into manufacturing, but we're seeing mortgage rates come down. And so if homes sales start to recover, then that business recovers at a time when another one is falling, and you don't get a recession, you'd get this series of rolling mini recessions that keeps us above zero and makes things not so bad. Not so bad. We'll take it. Well, thank you, Michael Bloomberg's global and economics policy

fed Phillips rich Miller Disney Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:55 min | 10 months ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Count down to the close, Bloomberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage ahead of the U.S. market close, starts right now. This is the countdown to the close about 6 minutes left to go here in the trading session on this Friday afternoon romaine baskets here. Scarlet poo is here and we're joined right now by our colleague Carol masser, who is here. And well, she was alone yesterday, but for some reason they decided she can not work alone. Katie, Griffith, apparently drawing the short straw. You do. Bloomberg audiences across Bloomberg television radio, we welcome you as well as those folks streaming on YouTube. Carol. We love you here. Give us some sense here of the market because we've been talking a lot here about the big rally that we had to start the year. And the idea that maybe that was kind of a bear market trap maybe is starting to Peter out here. If you have a sense of this market, then good for you, 'cause I really don't. We just talked with rich Miller on Bloomberg news. You mentioned his story about rolling recession, but there's just so many different ways we're thinking about kind of how we land here. Soft landing, hard landing, rolling recession, no landing. It's hard to make sense. So what do I do? I'm going to look for sectors that really are a standout. And we're seeing that in the energy space. There are some fundamental macro reasons why. And you know what it is. Russia planning to cut its oil output by about 500,000 barrels a day next month. They are following through with the threat against western energy sanctions. So we saw oil prices move, we also saw just the overall sector. So the S&P 500 energy sector up almost 4% Valero is at 5.6%. You've got a Apache up about 5.8% and marathon also up about 5.8% and Katie, these are some of the top gainers in the S&P 500. So energy definitely a clear winner today. So, I mean, that's one way to make today sound exciting. When you look at the energy space, are you excited? I am excited. Look at the overall S&P 500 though, it's barely moving. And stuff like a tenth of a percent. But then you look at the bond market and there's a lot of fireworks there. I'm looking at what, ten year treasury yields up 8 basis points. They're up like 20 basis points for the week. Same thing if you look at two year yields, you haven't seen that volatility spill over into the stock market. You wonder how long that dynamic can hold? Well, you are seeing a little bit of volatility here on the day. The S&P has been oscillating between gains and losses for a good portion of the day. Now, poking back into the green up about a tenth of a percent here, the outperformer on the day of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up about four tenths of a percent, and a few more chicks higher would actually erase all of its losses for the week. Not necessarily for the other indices, no matter what happens, and then unless the NASDAQ rallies, like three or 4%, it is going to finish the week in the red. It's down about 7 tenths of a percent here on the day. Russell 2000, Scarlett, up. Two tenths of a percent on the day. Even after even as the major indexes have flipped around, the performers in terms of best industry groups and worse industry groups has been pretty consistent. Carol mentioned energy star performer here, but then you look at utilities, healthcare Staples, these are your classic defensive stocks that flight to safety. And on the flip side, your growth of your names like communication services, tech, down in the red, off by 8 tenths of 1%, also consumer discretionary, which covers retailers, automakers and home builders, weaker by 1.3%. We call course we talk about the big surge that we've seen in a lot of those energy names. Carol, you were just talking about Marathon Oil representative of that up about 6% here. But I think it's interesting. All the hype that we saw over the last couple of weeks over chat GBT and AI that of course then sort of reversed. And we saw Google Alphabet down hard for two straight days and it's down again today here, but now Nvidia getting caught up in the downdraft here. Remember, those shares have been bit up over the last three days on the back of that. Now down 5% here on the day. Another bright spot for the week and really for the year has been Tesla, which is almost doubled off of that early January load that it hit 52 week low. Now down about four to 5% here on the day. And the biggest decliner, at least among the more notable names today, belongs to lift down 36%, we covered this yesterday after the bill when they came out with those earnings or rather lack thereof. A lot of investors running for the hills here, not liking what they see. Meanwhile, you go back to the broader market and you kind of wonder if investors there like what they see. We got the University of Michigan sentiment numbers and specifically, one particular number that Dan Curtis saw one of our producers at honing in on, and that's actually the value of stock ownership that these folks have. We had actually seen that number spike in the most recent prints, but that came down pretty hard in the latest print. And remember, this is primarily retail investors we're talking about. So some retail investors appear to have maybe sort of, I guess, move to the sidelines. This is backward looking data. We should point out, so things can certainly have changed over the last couple of weeks, but it gives you a sense here of just some of the oscillations we've been seeing on the retail side as well, Carol. Well, I think everybody's trying to make sense of, you know, kind of the way forward. And our David Westin caught up with former US Treasury secretary Larry summers. He has a warning for investors about not being too complacent when it comes to inflationary concerns. And what the fed needs to do. Here's what he had to say.

Carol masser Bloomberg Carol Katie rich Miller Bloomberg news Griffith Valero S YouTube Peter U.S.
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:44 min | 10 months ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"King Jonathan farrow and sabbatical right now. We have claims and I want to take you back to that spring of 2020 when claims jumped from one 99,000 to 878,000. That was the beginning of the shock of the American labor economy. We're looking for a suitable jump today. Michael McKee joins to brief us here. And what we're going to see in claims survey one 90, that's not a jump Mike, is it? The survey would not be a jump. And it doesn't jump very far. We do come in over expectations, 196,000. But that is still very low. So we're not looking here at a major change in the initial jobless claims numbers. Continuing claims do rise a bit while million, 6 88 from 1 million 6 55. However, that is not a significant jump either. It looks like what is happening is we are hearing layoff announcements that haven't completely happened yet, and then also a lot of people are getting jobs very quickly once they lose jobs because that continuing claims number doesn't jump up a significantly. So I think at this point, the jobless claims numbers aren't telling us a whole lot except for the fact that this is a very strong labor market and it just goes along with what Jay Powell was saying the other day about. If you think labor is cause of inflation, they got more work to do. When we have a layoff banner and it can be Disney today or whoever. How long is it until those numbers enter the Michael McKee world? Well, it depends on the company's plans. First of all, they may cut a lot of jobs through attrition. If they are actually doing layoffs of people may be offered jobs in other parts of the company, but also they have to give what they call Warren notices 60 days notice. Sometimes honored in the breach, but that does push out some of the actual departures. If you get severance and it's more than you would make in jobless claims and you're not eligible for jobless aid until you're severance runs out. All this tends to delay the arrival of the layoffs. And I don't think we're going to see Mickey and Minnie in these numbers for a couple of weeks, if not months. Meanwhile, we are getting much reaction in markets, which is, I guess, as you'd expect, considering these are somewhat noisy numbers. And it's very much in line with what we were expecting. What do you make of the belief in immaculate disinflation that seems to be sort of pervading markets, the sense that the feds rate hikes as baked in are sufficient to bring down inflation to the 2% target despite the robustness that we see by every indicator in a labor market. Well, it is a theory that's out there and it was originally proposed as sort of a sarcastic idea that how could you have immaculate disinflation. Now it's beginning to look like they might be able to do something like that, but it's still way too early to tell. I will tout today rich Miller from our economics team has a story on the Bloomberg about rolling recessions. And I think this may explain something that a lot of people have been wondering about. You go back to the 2015 era when we saw a recession in manufacturing, especially the oil industry, but it didn't show up in the overall numbers, but a lot of layoffs there. And this may be happening now. We're seeing layoffs in the real estate sector. In the mortgage sector. That may move on to other sectors at a time when real estate then starts to improve. We've seen some signs of that. Michael McKee, thank you so much. Always eventful. He'll be with us through a very busy week staggering out to Valentine's Day when John Farrell will pay a lot of money for roses and people will offer you gifts. As well, futures up 33 NASDAQ up 1.2 percent, Lisa, we have an important point here before we get to Luke Tilly, we have moments ago, new curve inversion and the vanilla, twos ten spread, let me fully explain this difference in yield between the two year and the ten year printed 85 basis points. It breaches through what we saw in early February. What's interesting about this is where that inversion is being driven by. And it's being driven by a rally in the ten year treasury. It is not being driven by increasing expectations for fed rate hikes. In other words, people are seeing even more value in buying ten year treasuries for 3.6%, which are yielding the least relative to two year treasuries going back a long, long time. We're back to December 7th on that. We're not through that. Maybe we'll breach the December 7th level of last year here in a minute. On the American economy, I looked till he joins his chief economist, Wilmington trust. Luke telling the state of the American labor economy, it's a jumble to me, claims odd jolts odd, everything odd. What do you and Wilmington trust make of our job economy? Yeah, it's obviously an incredibly tight labor market as Mike was just saying the low level of claims really syncs up with what we saw with job growth in the month of January. Interestingly, if you look at the non seasonally adjusted numbers, you usually get 2.8 or 3 million lost jobs in January. This time around this past January, you get a loss of 2.5 million jobs. Of course, the seasonal adjustment pushes that higher. And what we really see is in this tight labor market employers are holding on to their employees. We know how challenging it is to hire people. So it's really more of a story of wanting to hold on to people. That's the story behind the strong jobs number. For January and we're also seeing that with the claims this morning, we think that the job growth obviously is very strong, but it's more about the differential. You just referred to the adults jumped up on a one month basis and looks a little bit fishy before that it had come down more than 10%. But it's really the mismatch that's going to matter more than total job growth top. Is wage growth is going to cooperate so Lisa can see her immaculate disinflation? Well, we've already seen I hear people talk about is it possible to have this immaculate disinflation, it's easy to point out that we've already had it for three months, right? We've got this is not just a one off. You've got three months of much slower inflation. While you still have the strong wages and the tight labor market, we think that it's going to get much more challenging when you get to the middle of this year and beyond because the labor shortages are going to persist. We also see supply chain challenges and then also the energy transition is going to keep some upward pressure on inflation. So we expect it to keep coming down in the near term. We're encouraged that average hourly earnings actually were pretty mild with the 0.3% increase. And if you look at production and supervisory workers, the slowdown in wage growth from last year into this year is even more encouraging. So if you do get some noisiness, but you do get this sense of disinflation, just based on the year over year composition. Of the way that the data is drawn up, how do you then get confidence? How do you give confidence that there's going to be a stickier inflation later in the year when all anecdotal evidence is speaking to the other? Yeah, what we think that it's going to be keep coming down on a year over year basis, as you point out, you've got those base effects. We just don't think it's ever going to really come back down to what we saw between the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. We've got higher inflation on a trend basis now between two and a half and three and a half percent on a multiyear basis going out. It could get pretty low in the middle of this year. We know what's going on with shelter. And even if we just see the shelter numbers flat line, that would imply some very low inflation numbers. Willing to trust were much more focused on 9 and 12 and 24 months out. And those higher inflation numbers are going to keep rates higher and actually offer some opportunities for investors. So it's not a whole lot of confidence, Lisa about what the month over month or even to the

Michael McKee king Jonathan farrow Jay Powell Luke Tilly Mike rich Miller Wilmington John Farrell Minnie Mickey Warren Lisa Disney Valentine treasury
"rich miller" Discussed on History That Doesn't Suck

History That Doesn't Suck

03:44 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on History That Doesn't Suck

"This required eliminating all color options apart from black starting in 1914, but he did it. Other companies in industries followed suit and soon, mass production was everywhere. It probably brought you the very device you're using to listen to this podcast right now. In short, Henry played a sizable part in building our modern world. Hence his boast. I invented the modern age. Henry is also the tycoon of the people. The boss who doubled the working man's pay. Yet he felt those wages gave him the right to press into the personal lives of his employees. And in a somewhat ironic twist, this fiercely independent man nonetheless clashed hard with unions later in life. So Henry is quite complicated on this point. And finally, there's the one great stain on the brilliant mechanic's legacy. His anti semitism. Yes, for better or worse, or maybe for better and for worse. All of this is Henry. The Henry who, during the progressive era, changed the world. And with that, we close the chapter on yet another turn of the century tycoon. But we aren't done with inventors. It's about time we met two brothers who, like Henry, are interested in transportation. Just not on the ground. Ready to get airborne? We'll see if that's possible next time. When we meet these men of the sky on North Carolina's coast. At a place called kitty hawk. History that doesn't suck is created and hosted by me, Greg Jackson. Young sunnyside Washington boy read by special guest Alexander jacks, episode researched and written by Greg Jackson, additional research and drafting by Diana Abram. Production by airship. Sound designed by Molly bought, being music composed by Greg Jackson, arrangement and additional composition by Lindsey Graham airship. For bibliography of all primary and secondary sources consulted in writing this episode, visit HTTPS podcast dot com. HTTPS is supported by fans at Patreon dot com slash history that doesn't suck. My gratitude to consoles providing funding to help us keep going. Thank you. And a special thanks to our patrons whose monthly gift puts them at producer status. Luke antioco, Roberto Cindy, and Anne Avril, Paul boroski, Christopher Beckett, Victoria Bennett, James black, boosh, Amanda kelsea Bragg, Henry brunches, Thomas bug, will Caldwell, bethan christiansen, Christopher cottle, Jason carstens, Charles and Shirley Clinton. Matthew corley, David defazio, Charles devier, John frugal dougal, Kyle decker, bob drowsy, Joe dos, Mark Ellis, Michael and Rachel herculane, Paul go ranger, Lee Goldman, Brad Herman, Jennifer Houston, Mike healey, Noah hoth, Melanie Jan. Dex Jones, John Keller, Kristen Kennedy, Todd keim, amber clanger, Sue Lang, art lane, Aaron la palace, Chris Mendoza, rich Miller, Matthew Mitchell, Janie mccreary, Liz McNeil, doll more, Jeffrey moots, nicknamed Fox Osbourne, Sean peppery, Christopher colman, Sean Reagan, Nate Robertson, Jon revin, John schaeffer, Shannon Stewart, David and Alexander sharp. Scott slaymaker, dorante Spencer, Thomas Stewart, Bill Thompson, Sarah tray with TJ walker and Geoffrey watts. Join me in two weeks, where I'd like to tell you a story. Hear that. That's the sound of a patient whose health data is protected from a cyberattack. And that, that's the sound of a financial system that's digitally secured from bad actors. Right now, there's an invisible war being fought on a digital battlefield that impacts what we do every day. That's why it periton, we do that can't be done to help protect the vital systems we rely on because if we don't, the alternative is unimaginable. Periton.

Henry Greg Jackson Alexander jacks Diana Abram Molly bought Luke antioco Roberto Cindy Anne Avril Paul boroski Christopher Beckett Victoria Bennett Amanda kelsea Bragg Henry brunches Thomas bug will Caldwell bethan christiansen Christopher cottle Jason carstens Shirley Clinton Matthew corley
"rich miller" Discussed on History That Doesn't Suck

History That Doesn't Suck

03:44 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on History That Doesn't Suck

"This required eliminating all color options apart from black starting in 1914, but he did it. Other companies in industries followed suit and soon, mass production was everywhere. It probably brought you the very device you're using to listen to this podcast right now. In short, Henry played a sizable part in building our modern world. Hence his boast. I invented the modern age. Henry is also the tycoon of the people. The boss who doubled the working man's pay. Yet he felt those wages gave him the right to press into the personal lives of his employees. And in a somewhat ironic twist, this fiercely independent man nonetheless clashed hard with unions later in life. So Henry is quite complicated on this point. And finally, there's the one great stain on the brilliant mechanic's legacy. His anti semitism. Yes, for better or worse, or maybe for better and for worse. All of this is Henry. The Henry who, during the progressive era, changed the world. And with that, we close the chapter on yet another turn of the century tycoon. But we aren't done with inventors. It's about time we met two brothers who, like Henry, are interested in transportation. Just not on the ground. Ready to get airborne? We'll see if that's possible next time. When we meet these men of the sky on North Carolina's coast. At a place called kitty hawk. History that doesn't suck is created and hosted by me, Greg Jackson. Young sunnyside Washington boy read by special guest Alexander jacks, episode researched and written by Greg Jackson, additional research and drafting by Diana Abram. Production by airship. Sound designed by Molly bought, being music composed by Greg Jackson, arrangement and additional composition by Lindsey Graham airship. For bibliography of all primary and secondary sources consulted in writing this episode, visit HTTPS podcast dot com. HTTPS is supported by fans at Patreon dot com slash history that doesn't suck. My gratitude to consoles providing funding to help us keep going. Thank you. And a special thanks to our patrons whose monthly gift puts them at producer status. Luke antioco, Roberto Cindy, and Anne Avril, Paul boroski, Christopher Beckett, Victoria Bennett, James black, boosh, Amanda kelsea Bragg, Henry brunches, Thomas bug, will Caldwell, bethan christiansen, Christopher cottle, Jason carstens, Charles and Shirley Clinton. Matthew corley, David defazio, Charles devier, John frugal dougal, Kyle decker, bob drowsy, Joe dos, Mark Ellis, Michael and Rachel herculane, Paul go ranger, Lee Goldman, Brad Herman, Jennifer Houston, Mike healey, Noah hoth, Melanie Jan. Dex Jones, John Keller, Kristen Kennedy, Todd keim, amber clanger, Sue Lang, art lane, Aaron la palace, Chris Mendoza, rich Miller, Matthew Mitchell, Janie mccreary, Liz McNeil, doll more, Jeffrey moots, nicknamed Fox Osbourne, Sean peppery, Christopher colman, Sean Reagan, Nate Robertson, Jon revin, John schaeffer, Shannon Stewart, David and Alexander sharp. Scott slaymaker, dorante Spencer, Thomas Stewart, Bill Thompson, Sarah tray with TJ walker and Geoffrey watts. Join me in two weeks, where I'd like to tell you a story. Hear that. That's the sound of a patient whose health data is protected from a cyberattack. And that, that's the sound of a financial system that's digitally secured from bad actors. Right now, there's an invisible war being fought on a digital battlefield that impacts what we do every day. That's why it periton, we do that can't be done to help protect the vital systems we rely on because if we don't, the alternative is unimaginable. Periton.

Henry Greg Jackson Alexander jacks Diana Abram Molly bought Luke antioco Roberto Cindy Anne Avril Paul boroski Christopher Beckett Victoria Bennett Amanda kelsea Bragg Henry brunches Thomas bug will Caldwell bethan christiansen Christopher cottle Jason carstens Shirley Clinton Matthew corley
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:06 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You know, it's incredible. When you look through it, it's like 90 central banks have hiked and more than half of them have hike by three quarters, some of the more than that. As you say, everybody's trying to out hook each other, right? And there are some people worried with everybody going in the same direction to both going to tip over and to global recession, right? So that's one thing. And the other thing is when they raise rates, you first see it in the stock market, stock market, we can then you sort of see it in the housing market, the housing market sales. And it comes at the very end it comes into inflation. But as you say, if they're myopically focusing on inflation, that means they are probably going to overdo it. And that's going to push us into recession. Maybe your recession, all around the globe. The rich and we're talking millions of jobs here as you write in your piece analysts at BlackRock are reckoned that bringing inflation back to the fed's 2% goal would mean a deep recession and 3 million more unemployed. And then also hitting the ECB's target would require an even bigger contraction. All that right now is spelling out a global recession, something that affects the entire globe. So what does this look like when it comes to economic growth? Translating that 3 million unemployed into like growth, you probably have two, two and a half percent contraction in the economy in the U.S. economy. An actual contraction as opposed to sort of the sort of phony contraction that we got earlier this year when it was mainly because we were importing more. But this would be actual contraction. And the pain would be in the labor market. One of the questions is the politicians have with the most part except for senator Warren. That sort of cheering the fed on. Inflation is bad. Go ahead, fed, raise the rates, but once you start seeing some pain and gay powers, promise us, you wonder whether the politicians will change their tune. Which were already seen pain. And it made me want to ask you about lag effect. What is it really? I mean, we're seeing it already on housing, but the successive and cumulative interest rate hikes by global central banks, right? All of a sudden I feel like it's like when you know you've got a clog and you're pushing through, nothing's happening. And then all of a sudden it comes flying through. I'm waiting for that. Is that what's going to happen? I mean, that is the danger. And that's in the past why the central banks, when they did raise rates, they'd go in small steps like 25 basis points. So you go you go slowly and you see you have a little more time to see what impact your rates we're having. So but when you're going, when you're galloping ahead and like 75 basis point chunks, you don't have as much time to sort of gauge how the earlier hikes were affecting growth. And as you say, housing is kind of in the crosshairs here. But if housing weakens and people are buying lesser appliances, people feel that their house prices are going down, then they're going to save more. And that just has ripples. It just takes time, but as you say, it could sort of be like an exploding toilet, right? Good splash right into our faces. I didn't see that correct. Wasn't that a cover of Bloomberg business? The barf bag was a favorite. Might need to dust that one off. Look for the passenger next to you. You can get there back too. One of the things that I thought was a little bit frightening that I hadn't totally appreciated was the growth forecast charts in your story. U.S. goes down pretty dramatically when you start to look out Euro area worse UK. Man, that looks really bad in 2023. And from the sense of the folks that you talk to and the data that you're looking at it, is it starting to feel like there's that pit in the stomach that's like, oh God, this is going to get really bad. Truth be told, the U.S. we've held up surprisingly well. The labor markets held up pretty well. The problem in the U.S. is we've got this embedded inflation problem. The stronger the economy is, it means probably the fed's going to have to work that much harder to slow things down. And that's when you get risks that they slow it down too much and we go slipping into a recession. Rich real quickly just got about 30, 40 seconds here, is inflation still a supply problem or is it now kind of more demand problem? And that's where the fed can do something. Just quickly. I think in the U.S., it's probably becoming more and more demand problem, particularly in the labor market with the wages are going up about 5, 6% a year. And to be consistent with the fed's target, they have to be going up three and a half percent. So I've got a long way to go. That's why people think unemployment is going to have to go up a lot. So workers finally get a break and now it's like, I'm sorry about that. Yeah. It's not a good thing. We won't blame you, rich. Don't worry. Or we can. It all started here because of rich Miller's excellent reporting. He's in D.C., so there's nothing you can do. That was Bloomberg economic editor rich Miller, along with business week editor, Joel

fed senator Warren BlackRock U.S. ECB Bloomberg UK rich Miller D.C. Joel
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:24 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Let's get to the store that is the Bloomberg big take today. It's also among our most read on the Bloomberg terminal and it will be in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg business week due out later this week. It has to do with what Tim many would argue is our biggest story of the day certainly for the Bloomberg audience and it has to do with the global race to hike interest rates and how that is tilting economies toward recession. Yeah, this is a piece by rich Miller. It is Bloomberg, the Bloomberg big take as well. It's about the global race hike rates tilting economies toward recession Carol as you mentioned. It's not just the United States Joel Weber and rich. That is the entire world dealing with this right now. Rich Miller is economics reporter for Bloomberg news. He joins us on the phone from our Washington D.C. bureau. Joel Weber is the editor of Bloomberg business week he's with us in the Bloomberg interactive broker studio. So Joel, we were talking a little bit earlier about President Biden on 60 minutes last night. He was also asked about inflation. And one thing that I thought of when I was listening to his answer is that this is not just something that's happening in the United States that the U.S. is dealing with. You got pretty much every Central Bank trying to get interest rates to a place where inflation comes down. Yeah, and it's almost become as rich rates here. A competition. And let's see who can hike these rates faster. Rich, remember what money was cheap? That was fun. It's going to get more expensive. And here in the U.S. and elsewhere, right? And among everything that's happening, I think one thing that's really interesting here is it does seem like with interest rates, central bankers are just becoming myopically focused on taming recession taming inflation at all costs. And that increasingly starts to look like recession. But it is a global one, not just a U.S. story, so even though, you know, we're going to hear from Jay earlier this week. How is this manifesting itself elsewhere? Yeah, well, as you say, I mean, it's incredible. When you look through it, it's like 90 central banks have hiked and more than half of them have hiked by three quarters, some of them more than that. As you say, everybody's trying to out hook each other. I'll compete each other. And there are some people worried with everybody going in the same direction to both going to tip over into global recession, right? So that's one thing. And the other thing is when you go, Milton Friedman monetary policy affects the economy with long and variable lags. They raise rates, you first see it in the stock market, stock market regains then you sort of see it in the housing market, housing market sales. And it comes at the very end it comes into inflation. But as you say, if they're myopically focusing on inflation, that means I will probably going to overdo it. And that's going to push us into recession. Maybe a recession, all around the globe. We're talking millions of jobs here as you write in your piece analyst at BlackRock reckon that bringing inflation back to the fed's 2% goal would mean a deep recession and 3 million more unemployed. And then also hitting the ECB's target would require an even bigger contraction. All that right now is spelling out a global recession. Something that affects the entire globe. So what does this look like when it comes to economic growth? Well, I mean, basically, no growth, the economy is a contracting, right? So. I would think translating that 3 million on employed into like growth, you probably have two, two and a half percent contraction in the economy in the U.S. economy. An actual contraction as opposed to sort of the sort of phony contraction that we got earlier this year when it was mainly because we were importing more. But this would be actual contraction. And the pain would be in the labor market. One of the questions is the politicians now with the most part except for senator Warren. That's sort of cheering the fed on. Inflation is bad. Go ahead, fed, race the race, but once you start seeing some pain Powell's promises, you wonder whether the politicians will change their tune. Which were already seen pain, we were just talking about the housing market with Patrick Clark, right? Those high mortgage rates. And it made me want to ask you about lag effect. What is it really? I mean, we're seeing it already on housing, but these successive and cumulative interest rate hikes by global central banks, right? All of a sudden I feel like it's like when you know you've got a clog and you're pushing through nothing's happening and then all of a sudden it comes flying through. I'm waiting for that. Is that what's going to happen? I mean, that is the danger. And that's in the past one of the central banks, when they did raise rates, they'd go in small steps like 25 basis points. So you go you go slowly and you see, you have a little more time to see what impact your rates we're having. So when you're going, when you're galloping ahead in like 75 basis point chunks, you don't have as much time to sort of gauge the earlier hikes were affecting growth. And as you say, housing is kind of in the crosshairs here. But if housing weakens and people are buying lesser appliances, if people feel that their house prices are going down, then they're going to save more and then that just has ripples. It just takes time, but as you say, it could sort of be like an exploding toilet, right? Good splash right into our faces. I didn't want to be traffic here. Wasn't that a cover of blueberry business? It was a favorite. Might need to dust that one off. Passenger next to you. You can get there back too. Rich, one of the things that I thought was a little bit frightening that I hadn't totally appreciated was the growth forecast charts in your story. U.S. goes down pretty dramatically when you start to look out, Euro area where UK oof man, that looks really bad in 2023. Just from a sense of the folks that you talk to and the data that you're looking at it, is it starting to feel like there's that pit in the stomach that's like, oh God, this is going to get really bad. Yeah, I mean, truth be told as the U.S. we've held up surprisingly well. The labor markets held up pretty well. Most of the concern right at the moment is it's based on Europe where in the UK where they're getting hit with these incredible net gas price shock and at the same time you have the central banks raising rates and the problem in the U.S. is we've got this embedded inflation problem. And the stronger the economy is it means probably the fed's going to have to work that much harder to slow things down. And that's when you get risks that they slow it down too much and we go slipping into a recession. Rich real quickly, just got about 30, 40 seconds here, is inflation still a supply problem, or is it now

Joel Weber Bloomberg United States Washington D.C. President Biden rich Miller Rich Miller Bloomberg news senator Warren Patrick Clark Central Bank fed Milton Friedman Carol Joel Tim BlackRock
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:10 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Very much, Charlie palette at the Bloomberg business flash. Now let's get over to our chief correspondent for global macro markets Liz McCormick joins us to talk about what we're seeing happen in the fixed income on the fixed income side of things. Me and Paul are just dumb equity guys. So it's good to get slowly. Smart person's take. Yeah, please use small words for us. You have a story out today that jobs the jobs data that we see tomorrow is potential to push the fed towards a third jumbo hike. So a third, what? 75 basis point hike. If payrolls beat, right? Right. Even like you saw the ISM numbers today, the sub index unemployment showed it was decently holding in some strength. So if the jobs number comes out, especially if it beats like you said, I mean, the data just seems to be building that shows the fed has room to keep rising. Inflation is still a problem. Powell has said, I think the economy can withstand it. So while we get these numbers that kind of back that up for him, it seems to bode for that them going 75 basis points the next time. So yeah, there's a lot of eyes on payrolls tomorrow. You know, Vince ignore Bloomberg has a call here that basically the market's taken care of itself. It's taken care of inflation. And as a result, the fed should and is likely to pause after this next rate hike and that in and of itself is bullish for risk assets. The market's not sure about that. What do you think? Yeah, yeah, I think the market's in a quandary, right? There are some that we're saying, yeah, that's got to slow down. There's a decent amount that say, hey, the fed can get the funds rate to maybe a little under 4%. And then like Vince says they got to kind of slow down, pause. And then there are others that even our analog I keep bringing her up economics. She says fed goes to 5%. The folks at Bridgewater have said fed goes even higher. So I think it's like, I hate to say it, but the truth is in the data. It does inflation really keep rolling over. Does the economy start to falter or not? There's a lot of data that fed's got to sift through and decide. But there is a lot saying if they do another 75 bps that maybe they have to at least slow down the pace, you know? But we have to see. But what about turning around? Yesterday, master said, you know what, in my opinion, we're not going to cut in 2023. And that was kind of the fed's message checks and whole that to the market, like, hey guys, seriously, we're not going to cut next year. You are going to keep raising and then we're going to wait until inflation comes down. Kashkari has been extremely hawkish. And then yesterday, rich Miller had a piece out saying, Powell is now aiming for something much more painful for the economy. Somebody wrote in to me and said, the idea that one of the most powerful arms of the U.S. government is purposely aiming for pain. They're trying to put American people out of work. They're trying to raise unemployment is absolutely insane. If you see jobs starting to miss, if you see unemployment starting to go to 5%, don't they have to cut isn't the political pressure too strong? Well, you know, that's what Elizabeth Warren would say. She's been out saying, you know, we're worried about the fed is going to crush the economy, jobs. That's terrible. But the other argument, and I have to say, I kind of lean to that is what Powell saying is, you know, kind of inflation is a, let's call it a cancer attacks on everyone that if that lasts and it is strong, that's worse than sadly some people losing their jobs. So it's a bit of a push pull that the fed, of course, would love a soft landing, but I think, you know, through the months palace kind of moves away from that. Well, Liz, what's the idea? What's the consensus on how great a tool monetary policy is to fight supply side driven inflation? Well, of course, that's a lot of people say, not a good tool at all. So then what's the point? Well, the fed will say, well, if we slow down, we can affect what we can. That's demand, right? And let's say the supply stuff they have limited control over, fed is emitted that. But if they slow down the man, they'll slow what they can. So yeah, so if a supply issues and the sadly with the war and the energy crisis in Europe, if all that energy sector, all that remains sticky with inflation, then the fed may not be able to bring down that arm, but maybe sadly, maybe it's going to crush the part that they can, which is demanded from the U.S. consumer. So I guess the feeling is they've got to do what they can. But you're right. I mean, and I think they've admitted that. They can't control everything, but I think if they sit on their hands, they're in big trouble. There's enough of this macro stuff. I'm looking at the global ag here down basically 20% from its highs, right? And this month, we're just starting September today, Paul. Huge month for issuance. What's going on on the ground in the real financing markets? Well, first of all, companies need money, right? And summertime is usually a lull for issuance, not a good time. So they tend to come in after the summer's over. So they need some funding. And as bad as things are and it's pretty brutal where the ag has been, like you said, if rates are only going higher, you would kind of want to get now. Yes, get some fixed rates, three and a half may not be as bad as four and a half in a year. I don't know where it's going, but I think that's the thing. They need a certain amount of financing. It looks like rates are just at least for a while going nowhere, but up. So try to get in there when you can. All right, Liz, good stuff. As always, Liz McCormack chief correspondent, global macro markets for Bloomberg news. Matt, I'm looking at our Bloomberg video feed, it looks they are setting up Bloomberg businessweek at flushing meadow to U.S. tennis. These junkets, you know? Well, you could tear a master is the best at doing that. She is. She can interview anybody anywhere anytime, she was recently down at the Panama Canal of all places. And now wherever the cool people are, wherever the beautiful people are, that's where they send Carol and Tim. Well, and this is the place

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"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:48 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"1.4% Chevron down 1.2% EOG Resources up 5 tenths of 1% Pioneer Natural Resources down one tenth of 1%. Recapping stocks lower S&P down 5 tenths I'm Charlie Palatin that is a Bloomberg business flash. Thank you so much for that update Charlie pellet. Okay, if there's one term to describe the summer, maybe the spring, perhaps it's soft landing. The idea that the fed can pull the feet of taming inflation without ruining the economy. But Bloomberg news economics reporter rich Miller writes that we've got to forget about a soft landing. Instead, we need to be thinking about something called a growth recession. Rich Miller is economics reporter for Bloomberg news. He joins us this afternoon on the phone from Washington D.C.. Okay, a growth recession rich. We've got to go all the way back to 1972 to look at the origins of this term. What is it Well, it's kind of a hybrid, right? It's a protracted period of time when growth slows to basically nothing. Unemployment goes up, but we don't actually slip into a recession. As a sort of term, it's an oxymoron. As a term implies, it's a lot more painful in the kind of soft landing, which sounds like you're almost going to bed and going to sleep and having a nice dreams. This is something that's more painful. Okay, so soft landing, I agree with you. It sounds like you're gently resting your head upon a pillow, but this growth recession. You write that it's a protracted period of meager growth and rising unemployment. What about inflation? And how does this differ from stagflation, for example? Well, the idea of this is that by growing slowly you gradually sort of ring inflation out of the system. So where is in a recession, you kind of almost break through your leg like you pull a band aid off, right? But this is like more like a sort of slow motion. We had an economist probably somebody you guys have had on a Diane swank sort of say, this is like dripping water torture. Not quite a pillow, landing. Yes, not quite a pill landing. It's more like a nightmare landing, but it's not like you're getting dunked all the way in drowned, which I guess are restrained. This is maybe a torture which analogy, but that is more like an outright recession. But it's something painful. And I think we heard pretty clearly from Jay Powell that he's more and more coming around to the idea. We're going to have to go through some pain for this inflation problem that we got to be cured. We are, but I guess I'm one area that I'm still struggling with rich is when we kind of threw out the window, the term soft landing. When did we decide that that's no longer possible? And what was it that made that determination? Well, I don't know about we, but I think the collective way, the royal wheat, right? Exactly. I think it was clear from Powell's speech. I mean, he has been talking about a soft landing. He didn't mention soft landing at all in his speech. He didn't mention growth recession, but the way that the words he used effectively were sort of what a growth recession is. He said, we've got a we're going to have pain. We've got to have growth growing slowly slowly below what the fed considers its potential, which is about one and a half to 2%. And we got to have it going for a while. So. Effectively sort of abandoned the soft landing description and adopted the description of a growth recession. And so what does this idea of a growth recession? Does that set us all set us up at all for Friday's pay rules print, for example, does it sort of inform how we should be thinking about it, what sort of number to expect? Well, I'm not necessarily what sort of number we expect, but. It's indicative of the fed's thinking. So. Last year, of course, the fed was dismissing inflation is transitory. But now, I think it's worried that for inflation is going to be more protracted. And it's big worry is the labor market and that wages are growing too fast for to be compatible with its 2% inflation target. And that's why it wants to get unemployment up and that's why a soft landing is no longer something that it's shooting for. It's something that it needs to get unemployment up. So I don't know whether we're going to see that on Friday. The median bike of Bloomberg economist is I think the unemployment rates last I looked at unemployment rates going to stay steady at 3.5% and we're going to create about 300,000 jobs. Still a pretty strong labor market still probably not probably, but still too strong for the fed and liking. All right, rich Miller, we're going to have to leave it there. Thanks so much for taking the time and joining us this afternoon on Bloomberg business week. Rich Miller is economic reporter for Bloomberg news. He joins us from Washington, D.C. on the phone. Check out his story. Powell abandoned soft landing goal as he seeks growth recession. Well, let's stay in Washington D.C. now and get a check

Pioneer Natural Resources Charlie Palatin Charlie pellet Washington D.C. fed rich Miller Diane swank Rich Miller Jay Powell Bloomberg news Chevron Bloomberg S Powell
"rich miller" Discussed on History That Doesn't Suck

History That Doesn't Suck

04:08 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on History That Doesn't Suck

"So what do we make of Ellis island? I think it's a special place. During its 62 years of operation, Ellis island welcomed an astounding 12 million immigrants. 12 million who sacrificed suffered and in some cases risked it all to join. If I may bring back Thomas Payne's words, this American brotherhood. 12 million who wished, if I may also remind us of the historian Rudolph the collie's expression, not to have their nationality defined by their dissent, but by their ascent. And in a sense to what here I'll quote historian Tyler and binder once more. Quote, for nearly all of them, the term liberty perfectly encapsulated the reasons they had come to America. Liberty from hunger. Liberty from fear, liberty from violence, liberty to pursue any occupation. Liberty to live where they chose and political liberty. These were the motives that had driven this extraordinary mass of humanity to the United States. And by thus assenting, those 12 million became the ancestors of 40% of 21st century Americans. To put that another way, if you're an American and this doesn't include your family, it's still probably includes the family of someone you care deeply about. But without minimizing the absolute beauty of these ideals, nor the United States success at fulfilling them to such an extent that so many would flock to its shores. Many who wish to assent to the American experiment are still left out. Sometimes despite being citizens. So next time we'll follow one such group and bear witness as the American brotherhood. It becomes a bit more of a sibling hood. That's right. Next time, we'll hear the story of a fight for a constitutional amendment, guaranteeing women's suffrage. History that doesn't suck is created and hosted by me, Greg Jackson, episode research and written by Greg Jackson. Additional research by Kelsey dines and will came. Production by airship. Sound designed by Molly bought the music composed by Greg Jackson, arrangement and additional composition by Lindsey Graham of airship. For bibliography of all primary and secondary sources consulted in writing this episode. This is an HTTPS podcast dot com. HTTPS is supported by hands at Patreon dot com slash history that doesn't suck. My gratitude to you consoles, providing funding to help us keep going. Thank you. A special thanks to our patrons whose monthly gift puts them at producer status. Luke Antioch, Roberto assini, and at Avril, Paul barrows, Christopher Beckett, Victoria Bennett bouche, Amanda and Kelsey Bragg, Henry brunch, Thomas bogg will Caldwell, bethan, Chris Jansen, Christopher Todd, Jason Carson, Charles and Shirley Clinton. Matthew corley gave difazio Charles dev year. John frugal dougal Kyle decker bob drowsy as Joe dopest Mark Ellis, Michael and Rachel Erdoğan, Paul goring jerk league Goldman Brad Herman Jennifer and Houston Mike healing Noah Hoff Melanie Jan Dex Jones, John Keller, Kristin Kennedy, Todd Tyne amber clanger at Sioux Lang art lane. They've long been a Aaron le palace Christopher Mendoza, rich Miller, Matthew Mitchell, Jenny mccreary, Liz McNeil, Donald Moore, Jeffrey Lewis Nick nebot, a fox Osbourne Sean peppered Christopher Pullman Sean Reagan, Nate Robertson, John schaeffer, Shannon Stewart, David and Alexander sharp, Scott slay maker, ronti Spencer, Thomas Stewart Bill, Thompson, Sarah tray with TJ walker and Jeffrey watts. Join me in two weeks, where I'd like to tell you a story. Hear that. That's the sound of a patient whose health data is protected from a cyberattack. And that, that's the sound of a financial system that's digitally secured from bad actors. Right now, there's an invisible war being fought on a digital battlefield that impacts what we do every day. That's why a periton we do that can't be done to help protect the vital systems we rely on because if we don't, the alternative is unimaginable. Periton.

Ellis island Greg Jackson Thomas Payne United States American brotherhood Kelsey dines Rudolph binder Luke Antioch Roberto assini Paul barrows Christopher Beckett Victoria Bennett bouche Kelsey Bragg Henry brunch Tyler Thomas bogg Chris Jansen Christopher Todd
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:48 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You know, I would argue too that just listening to our TV colleagues that we are going through kind of a reset to figure out what the economy is, post pandemic, and after all of the stimulus. And that we need a well, we're not. Presidents got it. But it's a function. Lawmakers are getting it today. But we can function, right? Right. Like it's not, you know, thank God. I think the hospitals, the hospitalization rates, have kept a little bit lower, or the people that are getting into the hospital have not been vaccinated. We have the tools Correct. And I just, I keep thinking about this reset and maybe we need forgive me and I think Gina and Caroline bring up that when we have a recession, people lose jobs. It hurts. And there's certain people that get impacted more severely, but do we need some kind of recession reset to kind of figure out what our economy needs to be on the other side. Maybe we don't even need a recession reset Carol. Maybe we just need a little bit of softness because especially when it comes to hiring. I mean, look, anecdote, I have anecdotal evidence, and I have the hard data, right? Anecdotal evidence tells me that, you know, speaking to friends who work for companies, they can still go to get competing offers and then bring them back to try to get a raise. I have a friend doing that right now. At the same time, he's a manager and he's having trouble keeping people below him because they're not happy with the salaries that they're getting. So we're seeing that still. The hard data for that, Carol, has to do with the fact that in the U.S., we still have what, more than 10 million jobs available, two jobs for every unemployed person. And we know that there are, I know an anecdotally, you probably do too. There are people who are not coming back to the workforce. They were either old enough could retire or they just said I've had enough. Rich Miller who you mentioned are a Bloomberg news, great story on the Bloomberg about the fed caused you more plane, but causing more pain. He said one of the key economic points and data points is the employment cost index. Let's see if wage pressures are starting to come down because that will certainly play into the inflation numbers as well. Let's get to world and national news for that we go to Wendy Gillette here at New York. Hey, Wendy. Thank you, actor Paul sorvino, famous for his roles in Goodfellas and Law & Order has died. He was 83 years old. Democrats have gotten another reminder of their tough math in the evenly split U.S. Senate, Bloomberg's Nathan Hager reports from Washington. Joe Manchin of West Virginia says he has COVID-19 and will have to work in isolation while he recovers from mild symptoms. Manchin is just the latest Democrat to be sidelined with the virus, Delaware's Tom carper and Tina Smith have Minnesota just announced their own positive tests last week. Vermont senator Patrick Leahy has been out for weeks, recovering from hip surgery. Democrats will need all 50 votes plus a tie breaker from vice president Kamala Harris to pass a drug price and ObamaCare subsidy bill before the Senate's August recess begins next week. In Washington, I'm Nathan Hager, Bloomberg radio. Former president Trump is getting ready for his first appearance back in Washington since he left office 18 months ago. He's giving a keynote speech at the America first agenda summit tomorrow night. He's not expected to announce he's running in 2024, but Bloomberg governments, Emily Wilkins, reports this will be a big test for the former president's support within the Republican Party. You've seen more folks begin to disapprove of him since March since the first of the January 6th committees revelations and news began to come out, but there is still a solid chunk of the population that proves of him that wants to see him run for president again. Emily Wilkins, and mega millions mega massive right now drawing tomorrow night for the $810 million jackpot. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Wendy Gillette, this is Bloomberg. When pole

Nathan Hager Carol Wendy Gillette Goodfellas and Law & Order Bloomberg Gina Caroline mild symptoms Rich Miller Tom carper Tina Smith Paul sorvino Washington Senate Joe Manchin Emily Wilkins Bloomberg radio U.S. Manchin Wendy
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:08 min | 1 year ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Bloomberg radio It does feel like everybody is increasingly throwing in the towel But I think it's also an acknowledgment that inflation is going to probably stick around We're going to talk about the oil markets with Javier blossom a little bit later on It's just a recognition of where we are and it's nothing that's going to change overnight And if the fed is going to have to be a lot more aggressive that's going to be problematic for the economy and likely to take us down to a recession Yeah and we're going to talk about that with rich Miller in just a minute economics reporter for Bloomberg news He's got a great piece out about Powell facing the choice between elevated U.S. inflation and recession I want to go back to the interview that we had with Arnold Donald a few minutes ago because despite what we're seeing in the macroeconomic environment and correct me if I'm wrong he seemed really optimistic About his industry And yes he didn't say it was recession proof He said it was recession resistant because people if they're working they do want to take vacations and he sees value when it comes to cruises But for all the talk of we haven't seen this in 40 years he says we do have periods like this We have inflationary periods We have high gas prices He's not seeing it the same way that some other CEOs are No and this is why I love to have conversations with people who have seen a lot of different market cycles right And this one is there are some unique aspects to it No data about it I mean coming out of a pandemic we don't know exactly how this plays out right And when you have such extreme swings so quickly right They're not spread out over three years or ten years right That they happen so quickly and we understand why they did You know you don't know exactly what the impact is longer term and how everything works its way out But I agree with you You know especially for the U.S. market you know people coming back there's pent up demand people want to travel to and they've saved money and maybe they're not going to go out and buy clothes or some other stuff or you know but they're going to go travel Okay neighbors weekend trip to Wisconsin to visit family several $1000 for tickets for free That's a lot of money But they're doing it They did it Their flight was canceled on the way home Oh I'm sorry Oh my God Enough All right let's get to a.

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"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:14 min | 2 years ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"C. It's all about Fed chair Jerome Powell's policy revolution. And how it was blindsided by the Covid 19 crisis. Rich Miller writes that when Fed chair chair Jerome Powell rolled out a new modus operandi for running monetary policy at Jackson Hole a year ago, the economy was just coming out of a pandemic driven nosedive. That was after a decade of disappointingly slow growth with inflation stubbornly Low target. Well, times have changed. Rich. What was the M o? He rolled out a year ago. And where are we now? Well, I mean, it's as you say, Times of change. We're at an inflation rate, at least by the feds measure, which is, uh, two times higher than they like that 4% instead of 2% were at an economy that's growing. Uh At a great that we haven't seen for decades and, uh, we've got we've still got a monetary policy setting. That's the same as it was a year ago. That's raising questions about whether the Fed is It's going to be, uh, too slow to try to rein things in and that we're going to either get, you know, housing bubble or some sort of financial bubble or or return of something like we saw in the 19 sixties, with inflation starting to creep higher. So Richard feels like the Fed is in a tricky spot because you know if they wait too long and stick to the framework, you know they could risk what you just mentioned that we could enter a multitude of different bubbles, but it feels like it would be difficult to back away from the framework without losing. Some sort of credibility. So I mean, what do you expect the Fed to do here? Do you think that they'll stick it out? Or do you think that they'll lift probably earlier than they might have wanted to? It's a tough question, but is the key question? I think for the first part they're going to they're starting and we're starting to hear that already is that their rhetoric is going to start that. Turn a little more hawkish coming and the aim of that is to keep inflation expectations in check. Um they seem to be well and check in the Treasury market because we have yields well down from where they were earlier in the year. But consumers seem a little bit more worried. And, uh so they want to keep those. So, uh, you're starting to see the rhetoric shift, and I would expect that chair Powell will give us a little bit of more. Insight not too much, but a little more insight into their plans for beginning the taper when he speaks at the end of this week at the virtual, it's a virtual Jackson Hole again this year because of Covid. I think that's an entirely new story on its own that we learned about late last week that the fact that the Delta variant is running so rampant that this thing that they thought would be virtual or wouldn't be virtual would be for a second year in a row. Which would be virtual. I wonder about the Fed's dual mandate here and to what extent that that is willing to let the economy run hot in order to satisfy its other mandate. Which is to get maximum employment. Like how hot is the Fed going to? It's going to let the economy run hot. Well right now, uh, you know, uh, they're focusing not so much on how high the inflation rate is, but for how long? It's going to last, you know, stay there, right? Their story and this is our story, and we're sticking to it is that you know, uh, the inflation we're seeing is transitory. So, um, I think, though, that Argument may get a little stale as we get into next year, and so that you know that maybe the time when when you might see them getting a little more, uh, worried or they make turn out to be right and you know, inflation will settle back down. We've already seen some, you know, subsiding inflation on some of the areas like rental car prices that have proven most troublesome so I would think if if you're still seeing pretty, um inflation. Like three. Percent or more at the end of this year. They might get start getting more worried and so rich. This is something I think about a lot, and it's kind of impossible to answer. But if the Fed had known this pandemic was coming if they had known the trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus were on the way You think they would have committed to this new average inflation targeting framework? I think. Well, they were going off What they sort of a history of decades. Right of you know this whole secular stagnation story of Larry Summers that you know, we we for decades we've seen, um A low inflation, low interest rates and slow growth and, you know, ever since they introduced their inflation target in 2012. They've basically been short. So they were going on that I think you know, you could argue that maybe they went a bridge too far in the forward guidance they gave And when, you know, not only did they have a framework that they have the Ford guides and they say, Well, we don't expect to raise rates right, so we hit 2% inflation. Right, Rich Miller. We're going to leave it there. Economics reporter at Bloomberg News. Joining us on the phone from Washington, D. C. You can read riches story and more like it from Bloomberg's.

Jerome Powell Rich Miller 2012 Larry Summers Richard 2% 4% next year 19 sixties Ford Jackson Hole this year Delta Washington Covid a year ago Powell Fed Bloomberg three
"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:42 min | 2 years ago

"rich miller" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And the Fed for Bloomberg. His piece out today on the Bloomberg suggests that chair piles policy framework has been quote blindsided. By the Covid crisis. So rich thanks so much for joining us. Let's get in the way back machine and go all the way back to 12 months ago, when Jay Powell proudly announced his new framework, explain what that framework was, and then we'll talk about whether it still makes sense. Okay with the framework was was, uh, a revolution in a way. That's not it's not. It's not not exaggerating to say it was a revolution. You know, the Fed for years and years and years have been aimed at, you know, controlling inflation holding it down. Now, they said, we're going to actually look to raise inflation and to raise inflation above our target. We've got a 2% target. We're going to let it let it go above that target for a while. That was number one on the number two. That sort of revolution was in the past. They they worry different unemployment started to fall too far. They worry that the markets the job market was getting too tight and that Wages were going to start rising and then we get inflation. Now, they say, we're going to let the unemployment rate fall as far as it can. And we're only going to worry about it. If inflation actually shows up. We're not going to worry about it if we think inflation is going to show up, so those were to like pretty dramatic changes, uh, in fed policy. And how does the economy look different today? Because if they were trying to get over 2%, they sure succeeded. At least as of right now. Congratulations, J. You did what you wanted to do, Right? Be careful what you wish for right go to the at least on their price gauge. We've got inflation of 4%, which is double of what? What? What they were looking for, and and Powell has himself admitted that you know, it's it's far higher than the quote unquote moderate rise above 2% that they were looking for. Yeah. The pictures a lot different, right? I mean, well, as you well know, Uh, Since you spoke to speak to Larry Summers very frequently, you know, he used to worry about secular stagnation about, you know. The economy mired in this sort of slow growth, low inflation environment. Uh, now you talked to Larry every week at on Wall Street week. He's worried about inflation, and we have an economy that's kind of doing very well. Thank you very much, at least. Growth wise, So the pictures a lot different from power for power on the Fed and They're going to have to be nimble here and the picture maybe underlying the surface. Also, there's another thing we talked with Larry about all the time is supply versus demand, because a year ago we were still pretty much hold up in our houses and nobody could get out. They couldn't spend money if they wanted to other than online. Now it's not so much a demand problem. We got plenty demand. We pumped all kinds of fiscal stimulus in the economy got the monetary that's really accommodated. The problem is the supply. Isn't there necessary of workers or goods? Exactly exactly. And it's not, you know, Supply is not something that readily, uh, responds to, uh, you know, the feds, elixir of low interest rates and quantitative quantitative easing. You can, you know, Uh, it's hard to you can't get more semiconductor chips by lowering the interest rate another notch or by pumping out more money. It's something that takes a lot longer in it a bit out of their heads hands. So what do they do? Because they did work hard on this framework. Would it be odd? If they just said we had this whole firm? We only kept it for 12 months. We're going to go to a new framework. Right? So what do they do right now? What is Jay Powell talk about this Friday? Well, I think one thing that that they were going to do and that they have started to do is that they've started to say, Well, we we We are concerned about inflation. Uh, yes, we did say we wanted a little bit more information. But as you said, this is this is a lot more and the aim. There is the Is this kind of weird thing called inflation expectations. Uh, if companies think their you know, uh inflation is heading higher, there will be quicker to raise prices. If consumers think inflation is headed higher, they'll be quicker to to buy things today than tomorrow. So what you want to do is make sure that inflation expectations Don't get built in up faster inflation, So to do that, you get at least change your rhetoric and say, Well, you know, all right, The frameworks a good thing, but we do realize that the situation has changed. And then and then the long term, I think they'll Powell is still betting that the whole secular sect stagnation after we get through this period that the secular stagnation will sort of reassert itself and that Inflation will come down, but that's you know, maybe a year away, And so in the meantime, he's going to have some rocky rocky times. I guess it really depends on what transitory means, right? But do you do you expect him to move markets on Friday? Ah, that's always tough because you always have predicting what Not only what do you say? But what the market is expected to say, right? Um, um, I wouldn't think it would be too much of a market moving impact. Don't play this. Take back to me. Uh, I'll play it back for Larry, who's one of your biggest fans tales in the minutes, Okay? Thanks so much for that big take today from Bloomberg's Rich Miller coming up what comes next in Afghanistan in the region with former U. S ambassador to the neighboring Turkmenistan that's.

Jay Powell Larry 12 months Rich Miller Larry Summers 4% Bloomberg Afghanistan tomorrow Powell Friday 12 months ago a year ago Fed today J. double 2% target Turkmenistan one thing