17 Burst results for "Research Economist"

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:50 min | Last month

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Thanks, Tom. Now it is 9 50 a.m. here in London, so we have time for one more markets conversation with us and joining us now Rupert Harrison portfolio manager at BlackRock Mark T asset strategies. Also a former chief of staff for the former UK Chancellor George Osborne. You've also been a senior research economist at the IFS just to give you a whole CV. Thank you so much for being with us. You on TV just a moment ago. With barely 6 weeks into a new government in the UK is in crisis. If we get a reversal of the mini budget, how much does that help guilt and Sterling, how much does it restore Britain's credibility on the world stage? Well, look, it clearly is going to continue to help guilt. I think Sterling is, as you see this morning, kind of driven a bit by the dollar moves as well, but it should continue to support Sterling a little bit. I think we have now probably more than 50% probability of this U turn is now already priced in so I think the biggest part of the move may be behind us, but probably more to come if we do get that U turn as expected, possibly Monday, early next week. I don't think it completely removes all questions about UK policy. I think markets will still look forward to 31st of October. But I think it probably does buy the government enough time. And I think the interesting thing as well is you could see a switch from this sort of negative dynamic in gilt markets where rising yields force more selling to a sort of milder version, but in reverse where falling yields force more bike because I think there are going to be some funds out there that are probably under hedged underexposed and they're going to be people buying into a rising market. Yeah, three 99 on the ten year might look attractive to some of those funds on the ten year guilt. Yeah, exactly. I think there's a combination of probably of faster money looking for momentum, but also just sort of structural pressures within the system where there needs to be a bit of buying because they're probably some of the selling was a bit overdone. Andrew sentenced earlier telling us that there is going to be volatility leading up to the OBR doing the homework and checking the homework of the treasury, presumably you expect the same thing. I just wonder to what extent you think this is a longer term damage to the credibility. And again, UK assets. Yeah, look, I think there is going to be a risk premium for some time now in UK assets because I think some vulnerabilities have been exposed. I think there's an uncertainty premium now. I think the government can go a long way towards starting to reduce that by rowing back in behind the institutions behind the Bank of England behind the OBR. And crucially by setting out a plan on the 31st October that is seen as credible. I think in a sense that the test for this that markets are looking for is you want the sort of row after the publication of that plan to be a kind of conventional political row. Is it spending tax rises rather than a row about the feasibility and credibility of the measures themselves? Yeah, absolutely. And sentence also talked about the idea that you could just sort of snap snap and you'd get two and a half percent economic growth in the UK as being unrealistic was his view. But growth, the UK, I mean, are you a buyer that the UK does need to push up its growth, a substantially. What if any of just economics does that and what remains of the policy? No, I'm absolutely a bio that you need to keep pushing at structural reform in the UK to improve the way markets function, to improve skills, to improve infrastructure, to I think some of the issues around the planning system absolutely correct. But the realistic outlook is that it takes a long time for structural policy to have an impact on trend growth. I think it's possible, but it takes patient, consistent policy over a long period of time, and then you need to be realistic about the impact it's going to have. And I think that the crucially for forecasters like the OBR and for markets, this issue around structural growth has to be shown not tell. I think people are going to wait to see the evidence. They're not going to assume that results until they see them. There is this irony that when you work with jaws also on the course of the chance of these checker in the UK, you pursue what George Osborne pursued austerity at a time when in fact rates were very, very low and arguably you could have spent quite comfortably. And now we're at a point where the government is planning and wants to spend very heavily at a time when rates are much higher. I just want to take you back to that time working with George Osborne and get your views on how much of that work around trying to shore up the finances of the UK, which of course was the purpose of that. How much of that on work has been undone? Well, look, I think the issue is that when you're thinking about fiscal credibility and public finances, you need to take a very, very long term view. Because you can't turn these things around quickly, that's what we're seeing. And so back in the 2010s and that period where the UK had a very, very high deficit. The whole point was, look, we face vulnerabilities down the track. We can't be certain when they will come, but they will come. The UK has vulnerabilities about a current account deficit. It's very dependent on external financing. It had vulnerabilities in the banking system. We don't have a global reserve currency. These are all reasons to take a long-term view and say the UK can never take credibility for granted. You

UK Rupert Harrison BlackRock Mark T asset strateg OBR George Osborne Sterling Tom Britain London Bank of England rowing treasury Andrew
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:20 min | 2 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"19,000. That's a check on your markets at 90 minutes past the hour here in the UK Caroline. Our top story this morning, the pound hit a fresh record low against the dollar today before regaining some of those losses as the Chancellor doubled down on tax cut plans. The decline followed the release on Friday of quasi quantz growth plan, which detailed the biggest tax giveaway in half a century in the UK, asked about tax cuts over the weekend, quoting told the BBC there's more to come. There are growing fears that the Kremlin may soon ban some men from leaving Russia after president Putin's conscription plan sparked a mass exodus of citizens. People waited for hours in long lines, at land crossings into Finland, Kazakhstan and Georgia over the weekend, the Russian government has tried to reassure citizens saying that some students will be exempt small protests also broke out across the country. Meanwhile, in Italy, Georgia meloni is poised to lead the most right wing government in the country since World War II and become Italy's first female prime minister exit polls project a clear victory in yesterday's election, maloney's coalition will win about 43% of the vote according to rye, giving her a majority in the upper house, maloney has assured voters that she will keep the country's mammoth debt under control. Global newspapers a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and Alice in more than a 120 countries. I'm Caroline here good. This is Bloomberg Tom. It's remarkable isn't it normally the political risk here in Europe is focused on Italy and despite this significant historic change in the way that that country is going to be governed, the political risk is for acute here in the UK. UK markets looking besieged this morning guilt of plummeted, Sterling hit an all time low against the dollar as traders ramp up their bets on the pace and the size of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. Now the institute of fiscal studies has been scathing about the Chancellor's announcements on Friday, gambling with fiscal sustainability in order to push through huge tax cuts as IFS director Paul Johnson put it. Joining us now Isabel Stockton research economist at the institute for fiscal studies, Isabel, we heard the Chancellor at doubling down on plans to further cut taxes over the weekend appearing to brush off the ravaging of these markets. How long can they keep this going, do you think? Well, as you said, it is a big gamble. So on current forecasts, these sums are not going to add up. And the Chancellor's plans would lead to that on an increasing share relative to the size of the economy. In the long run, that is not going to be sustainable. Now, the government may get lucky and we may be getting much better growth than current forecasts are expecting, or there may be a concerted policy effort across multiple policy areas that is successful in bringing growth up that would indeed be incredibly welcome. But cuts in headline tax rates on their own are just extremely unlikely to generate that sort of push to growth that we would need to make these tax cuts sustainable by themselves. Okay, so skeptical about the government's plan to increase growth via tax cards. What could the government do then to restore confidence? Do you think that they will you turn or will they soften some of these measures? I mean, there did seem to be no hint of that on Sunday with quasi quantang speaking to the media. And it certainly doesn't sound like it. We did hear some sort of encouraging noises during the statement in terms of looking at a broader range of areas, a broader range of reforms where we would need something we would need to see some policy action. We would need to see some investment to actually have a decent shot at generating the sort of growth we would need to put the public finances on a more sustainable path. Now, so far, that hasn't been terribly detailed, but we hope that that will follow and that tax cuts are just one part of a wider strategy, which is really all they can be. Isabel, what is the inflationary impact of Sterling and the pound at these levels? Well, of course, it is concerning to see this sort of market reaction to the fiscal statement and it is not clear that the tax cuts that we're seeing would not have an additional inflationary impact. Of course, that is a very plausible response. And it is worrying that we are seem to be headed in a direction where monitoring fiscal policy are sort of working against each other. Okay, just very briefly, do you think there'll be an emergency meeting by the Bank of England this week? Well, I wouldn't like to speculate on that. Okay. Isabel, thank you so much for being with us. Yeah, I appreciate if that was an off topic question, but I'm interesting to get your views though on the market reaction really unexpectedly perhaps severe market reaction to the budget announcements by quasi quarte Isabel Stockton is research economist at

UK Russian government maloney Italy Caroline Bloomberg Tom institute for fiscal studies institute of fiscal studies Georgia Isabel Stockton meloni Putin Kazakhstan Isabel Finland rye Bank of England Paul Johnson BBC
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:55 min | 2 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Yeah, I mean, it's been pretty brutal, hasn't it? To be honest with you. And I think to be honest, it's quite surprising because much of what was in quieting budget had already been trailed. We knew about the CT cut, we knew about stamp duty. We knew he was toying with the idea of this basic rate cut to income tax. But I think the broader message Caroline used to sit it there with what the IFS has been talking about as well. I think it's just the tone that he came out with and the way it came across. The fact that there were no OBR forecasts, there was very little focus on fiscal sustainability. And it's just clearly really, really spooked the market and Thomas, you've mentioned that it's going to need something from both, I think, the Bank of England and the government to calm the market down. Well, we put that question to the former NPC Bank of England member Andrew sentenced just earlier this morning. He was pretty firm, he said he did not expect an emergency meeting from the Bank of England. He highlighted just how unusual that would be. Historically, will we hear from the Bank of England today or from the governor or some of the others? Or indeed from the government to try to soften the message? I think I wouldn't be as firm as that to say that won't be an emergency meeting, but I think it's a reasonable base case is that over the course of the next 24 48 hours you're going to, I think you're going to hear from the bank, Bailey's not scheduled to speak this week. I would expect him to come out and say something. I'd also expect something to come from the government as well. Because it's a two pronged approach. It's not just all you can't do something like this and expect the bank to come in and write to the rescue, the government needs to think seriously about those thought about what they want to do with tax. If they really want to cut taxes as they say they do, they need to think about spending because what worries people is borrowing. So it's the gap between the two. So they really need to think there's a fiscal strategy and what is the fiscal strategy we heard again from quoting over the weekend that's GDP going to be on a downward trajectory, but over what time horizon, when's that going to happen? And I think we've just really need to hear something on that front as well. And that's part of the critique, the Bloomberg economics critique of this of this policy mix. If we get a get a point and a markets, we touched on this pricing in a 150 basis points by the BOE by November, will debate whether that they're getting ahead of themselves on that. But clearly higher rates seem to be coming down the pipeline as consensus now. What is the drag on this economy from rates at the two year 4.4%, ten year comfort to be a 4% now? What does the economic pool of that kind of rate action from the BOE? Yeah, so it's a very give you a very, very rough guide. So every hundred basis points the bank increases interest rates. It knocks sort of .3 .4 of the level of GDP after about a year and maybe about .1 maybe .2 off the level of inflation. So it's not huge. But you have gone from the point at the beginning of this year where the idea of bank rate being at one one and a half percent was almost laughable. And now we're talking somewhere between sort of consensus economists is between four and 5% probably now. It's moving to that. The markets, you said Tom, between 5 and 6%. So you've had this massive repricing and to be honest, I think we might avoid or have a very shallow winter recession because of what the government's done through fiscal policy. I think the bigger risk now and the increasing risk is that recession hits in 2023 because the bank has had to pull so hard on the economy to bring inflation back into check. I wonder what you make of this debate, you know, the language around the UK being an emerging market than Larry summers, you know, talk about it, the UK submerging itself even further from there the pushback came from Gerard Lyon, who is also on the program on Friday and on just earlier this morning. He is both an economist and now an adviser to the prime minister, so really important voice. Sort of highly critical of U.S. economists and their view of Brexit Britain as it were. What do you make of this? I mean, I know it's only a phrase, but it's obviously one that's being attached to the UK increasingly emerging market currency. Well, selling is a high beat currency. We know that. And I think over the course of now, if you think back from 2008 to now, we've had at least two and we might be in the middle of a third enormous moves in Sterling. You head off to the financial crisis. You had about a 25% depreciation. You have Brexit, you had another ten, 15% depreciation. So we do get these big moves in the UK. And I think what worries people the most, it's that rate expectations are going up and they're going up aggressively, but it's just not providing any support for the pound and you're getting this negative correlation between Sterling and between rate differentials. And that is an emerging market dynamic. I don't think we're there yet. Definitely not. But it is a worrying sign. And the big worry, I think, the thing we haven't spoken about is this current account deficit we have in the UK as well. We rely as Mark Carney used to say on the kindness of strangers. So we've just got this reputation as being a serial borrower. And that's what spooks speak to the markets. As you say, markets pricing in a 150 basis points. And yet there is no guarantee that that would do enough to shore up the pound. And then you have to weigh up across that inflationary impact of a week about. Currently a one O 7 on Sterling, so as we touched on at the top, pairing some of the heavier losses at the start of the training session currently down 1%. Dan Hansen Bloomberg economic seen at UK economists. Thank you, as ever for the analysis. Yeah, so interesting. And perhaps that issue around can't account deficit is the thing that we can unpack next Isabel Stockton research economist said the institute for fiscal studies will be joining us about how Friday's mini budget can we still call it that will impact UK public finances and is impacting

NPC Bank of England BOE OBR UK Caroline Gerard Lyon Bailey Andrew Thomas government Larry summers Tom Britain
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:02 min | 3 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Tomorrow, PPI and initial jobs claims data too, and guess what, the San Francisco fed president Mary Daly, she'll be on Bloomberg television. And in earnings, I just do this with Stephen because we all need to stay awake on a Wednesday after the bell today will Disney be waltzing after the company will be reporting its earnings and guess what? It just doesn't slow down so on Friday we'll be rounding off the week we'll get UK GDP data. We've been waiting for that, haven't we? We're going to see what's going to come and also Euro area industrial production. So lots of key points this week and sorry Alex and I were literally half asleep in the beginning of that sector. I also want to make it clear that I also understood your exceptionally strong Disney joke because he's called Walt Disney, therefore waltzing ha ha. I thought that was so good. Did you not think? So good that we deserve to hear it again. For three days in a row now. Leanne, thank you very much for that. Well, let's get back to one of the big stories here in the UK and you study by the institute for fiscal studies saying that government departments will need an extra 44 billion pounds to cope with the effect of soaring prices. The think tank says that inflation will wipe out more than 40% of the planned increase in funding for public services over the next three years. We're joined now by benzer anko senior research economist at the IFS and author of this report Ben good morning. Thank you for being with us on Bloomberg radio. Can you explain how did you come to this 44 billion pound figure? Absolutely. The 44 billion pound figure is a cumulative number for the next three years and it's basically an estimate of just how much less generous the government's spending plans have become because of higher inflation because higher inflation means that public service budgets which are set in cash terms just don't go as far when energy prices are high of food prices are higher, staffing costs are higher because you're having higher than expected pay awards, you simply more expensive to run a hospital or a school or a prison. And so I produce some new estimates of just how much it would cost for the treasury to compensate departments for that. And as you say, it's about 8 billion this year followed by 18 billion each of the next two and a B worst affected. Well, I think the way to think about it is departments that are particularly big consumers of energy are going to be especially exposed. Now we know hospitals and care homes, it's important that they are kept one for obvious reasons. But the biggest component of costs for most public services is staffing. And when the government set out its plans for the parliament last autumn, it was all predicated on P awards of something like two or 3%. Last month, the government announced that multiple accepted workers will get something more like four and a half, 5% varies a little bit. But they're not riding any extra money. So the departments are being asked to meet the cost of those higher pay awards, but without any extra cash. And so they're having to make very difficult savings elsewhere at the same time as their energy bills are going through the roof, food bills are going up, you know, feeding a hungry lot of soldiers in an army barracks are suddenly just become more expensive. And so this is causing some real headaches right across the public sector. So those are the kind of how the departments be affected, but what sort of knock on effect could that have then on services the public are using? Well, if the, for example, the NHS has to meet all of these costs with an existing budget, something's going to have to give. If it's going to have to meet 5% pay awards, pay more to heat hospitals, something that we're going to have to give. And maybe that's reductions in headcount, maybe it means, you know, and it just doesn't set up a community diagnostic hub. It will hit services eventually. It might mean schools cutting back on a number of TAs, teaching assistants, a matter of fact, the quality of learning for some students eventually whistle feed through into lower service quality. But the candidates in the conservative leadership campaign have been very, very keen to talk about all the tax cuts that like to implement in this trust's case, perhaps immediately, there's been far less attention paid to their plans and their vision for public spending and public services and heading into what could be difficult winter. I think that's a gap that needs to be filled. Beyond sort of cutting public services, is there any other action that can be taken than any other way of sort of squaring this circle? Well, the way to square the circle would be for the treasury to provide additional funding. It's clearly the case that with higher inflation and higher nominal earnings growth, tax revenues are going to come in higher than expected. So for example, when Rishi sunak announced last year he was going to freeze income tax thresholds, he expected that to raise about 8 billion pounds per year by year four. That's now going to be more like 30 billion because of much higher inflation than what was expected at the time. So Bridgestone tires just rolled into Midas. And if you roll in, we've got an exclusive deal for you. Get $70 back and Bridgestone rebates, plus a $50 reward card with paid installation. Shop Bridgestone tires at Midas dot

IFS Bloomberg benzer anko Ben good Mary Daly Disney UK Leanne government Walt Disney Stephen San Francisco Alex treasury parliament
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:39 min | 3 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Benza ranco the senior research economist at IF IFS at 7 30 this morning on that very story. The FD has some details on trust is planned to take the Bank of England to ask. Yes, indeed, so trust is facing an early fight with a Bank of England should she succeed in becoming the prime minister. Now this is according to the FT Alex, as you said, the paper said she is vowed to press ahead with plans to give ministers powers to overrule regulations of the financial sector if they are seen to hold back a post Brexit reforms. The plan was originally proposed by her rival Rishi sunak so this is a rare agreement before the two and trust also questioned the BOE's use of quantitative easing as its impact and its impact on and inflation. We have seen that route between her and Andrew Bailey kind of on the sidelines but Bailey is of course saying no, the BOE is an institution that needs to be protected. And as well as Leanne, you have been looking at Serena Williams on the front pages of some of the newspapers this morning. Yeah, she's on a lot of the front pages and on the times today she's with her daughter Olympia as she posed on the tennis court and she says I'm evolving not retiring and those are her words so 23 time Grand Slam singles winner and she's also one of the greatest ever athletes has hinted the U.S. open may be her last tournament. She was writing in Vogue and the champion said she's moving towards other things that are just more important to her now. You know, she's been chasing Margaret court's all time record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles and it breaks my heart that she hasn't quite made it because I'm a massive fan of tennis and I feel like Serena Williams, she revolutionized tennis in so many ways. I remember I'm not far off her age. I'm not going to reveal. In fact, remember switching on the TV one day and seeing Serena Williams and she had amazing jewelry on and great clothes and I think the excitement she brought to tennis and the way she's transformed the game has just been absolutely exceptional. So thank you to Serena Williams for being an absolute great. Okay, and those are where have you seen the best version of that photo? Times I think one of them today. Yeah, the bit. There's lots of lovely photos I love the one of her with her daughter who joined her on the tennis court when she won a Grand Slam and she has the medal, but also she looks great in Vogue, Serena Williams. She looks amazing, both have done an absolute justice. So impressive in so many ways. Okay, Leanne Garrett, thank you very much for taking us through all of the newspapers. This is Bloomberg. Markets

benza ranco Bank of England Serena Williams FT Alex Rishi sunak BOE tennis Andrew Bailey Margaret court Leanne Bailey Olympia U.S. Leanne Garrett Bloomberg
"research economist" Discussed on Skimm This

Skimm This

05:40 min | 4 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Skimm This

"Hi, everyone. It's Blake loomer win. Associate producer on skim this. We're doing things a little differently this week. First, I'll be taking the micro Alex for the next 5 minutes, and we're also focusing on one big chunk of headlines from the week. Everyone's favorite topic, the economy. We're going to start with this week's report on the country's gross domestic product. And remember, GDP is basically a measure of the overall size of the economy. To help us skim the report, we called Catherine Edwards, an economist at the Rand corporation, and a friend of the show. The U.S. economy shrank slightly in the second quarter for the months covering April to June. It had also shrunk in the previous quarter January to March, and this time around the second quarter, it was not as big of a contraction. Look, we know you've probably seen the word recession, plastered all over your news feeds. And that's because one general definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So are we there yet? Well, Edwards says there's some nuance here because the various parts of the economy, which is made up of household spending, government spending, the investment of businesses and net exports don't move in the same direction all the time. Parts of the economy can grow, while other parts shrink. In terms of this GDP report, consumption still grew last quarter, but it grew at a slower rate than it normally does. Two thirds of our economy is household spending, and it grew this past quarter. That's a really good sign because it's about the largest part in the part that tends to reflect household well-being the most. What fell was one part of business investment that comes from inventory. And it fell a lot because businesses had stocked up at the end of last year, and so they've reduced how much they're buying right now because they have so much in their warehouse. And that's not typical in the U.S. economy businesses tend to keep their supply really tight. Jobs are another factor in the equation, and they're looking pretty okay right now. Unemployment is at a low of 3.6% and job openings are high. So that means we have a very strong labor market occurring as this contraction is happening. So this declaration of recession or nods can't just be about the one number, it has to be about the components they're in. I mean, we have some headwinds coming our way. Hopefully we can get around that. Basically, we're flirting with a recession. But according to Edwards, and other economists were probably not there yet. And we should note there's actually an official group of research economists from an organization called the national bureau for economic research, whose responsible for making the call on whether or not we're in a recession. And it can take months for the group to decide as more data on the economy is released. Whether or not they'll say we're in a recession remains to be seen. But one thing is clear. Parts of the economy are slowing down. And that should make the Federal Reserve happy, because it's been trying to rein in one part of the economic machine that's growing way too fast. Inflation, it's been doing that by raising interest rates. The latest hike came this week at another three quarters of a percent. The whole idea there, make it more expensive for people to borrow money, so they spend less, which keeps prices from shooting up. There's one other piece of the economic puzzle you're going to be hearing about. Corporate earnings. The latest reports are starting to roll out from some of the country's biggest companies. And already, it seems like a slowdown is in the works. But not across every industry. The drug company Pfizer beat Wall Street expectations in this last quarter. And Ford's profits were up too. But tech companies might not be looking so hot. Meta already reported its first ever yearly decline in revenue. And Google's parent company, alphabet, also reported a drop in profits. We're at a pivotal moment in which we're transitioning from coming out of the pandemic and all of its incredible economic consequences and moving back into a post pandemic economy that transition has not been always smooth or flawless or without issue, but the question is, can we pull it off without having to go through a recession first? So, did the economy shrink? Yes. Are there reasons to worry about it? Also, yes. But economists think it's too early to say, we're headed for a huge downturn, and Edwards left us with some tips if you're stressed about the economic outlook. Never judge your own economic security by the status of others. I think it's easy to feel intimidated or feel like you're doing something wrong because someone has saved more than you or your Friends graduated from college when you did, but now they have a house and that really erodes your sense of self. So don't let that enter your mindset. Make your decisions about you. If you're afraid you're going to lose your job, Polish your resume, get your LinkedIn profile up to date, just plan out what would you do if you lost it? Like, where would you go? Would you move in with somebody? Would you sell something? Start thinking about that stuff now so that if the worst does happen, you've thought about it. You don't want to be caught flat footed. Focus on

Blake loomer Catherine Edwards Edwards Rand corporation national bureau for economic r U.S. Alex Federal Reserve Pfizer Meta Ford Google LinkedIn
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:24 min | 4 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Of support. And that's fairly well targeted at the bottom end protecting low earners and low income households. We think at least able to weather the storm. But with support across the board as well. So like universal money energy bills, for example. And I'm sure he would say I've already provided substantial support. It means that low income households should be at least no worse off on average than they were last year. I don't think either of these candidates have actually proposed anything further on cost of living. So if you're the candidate for proposing cuts to fuel duty and so on cuts to vat, I think these two are more focusing on the longer term vision right now, but that may change when they come into Downing Street at the same time as off gem increases the energy price gap, then maybe pressure for more to be more financial bills, more council tax rebates. I mean, we've got a dozen hustings between now and September. Look, cut through all of this for me, Ben survived then. What sort of Conservative Party member do you think is going to vote for Liz trust versus Rishi sunak? What is going to be in their minds economically when they're thinking about choosing between these two candidates? How would you describe them? There's all sorts of metrics on which people may make these decisions. I think if you'd be thinking about economic policy, I think the key division here is do you want to be sort of a more cautious approach with careful stewardship of the public phalanxes put first, saying, yes, I would love to deliver tax cuts but only when we're sure that there are and we can do that without compromising on our ability to bring down government debt or do you want to see a Big Bang of tax cuts straight away, even if that means higher borrowing. Perhaps that's worse than the public balances with a gamble on what that maybe might mean for growth. I think that's the choice between the two. I think one is perhaps the more known often trodden cost of action wanted a bit more of a gamble. I think that's the way to frame the choice set facing conservative members. Well, that is very clear. So careful and cautious or a Big Bang of tax cuts. Ben, thanks so much for sending that up for us, though. So that's a neatly that's been Zoran senior research economist at the institute for fiscal studies. Yeah, very interesting. You're listening to a big daybreaker where life from London. Markets, headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day. The Bloomberg business out there. Quick take. This is a Bloomberg business flash. From Bloomberg's European

Rishi sunak Conservative Party Ben Liz Zoran institute for fiscal studies London Bloomberg
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:31 min | 4 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe. The governing council took further key steps to make sure that inflation returns about 2% target over the medium term. Russia is blackmailing us, Russia is using energy as a weapon. We just don't know yet whether Boris Johnson is going to come back reincarnated as Rishi or Liz, but they're both responsible for every single economic error that has been made under the Johnson mill. Bloomberg daybreak, Europe. On Bloomberg radio. It's 9 30 a.m. in London ten 30 a.m. in Frankfurt. I'm you and Potts And I'm Caroline Hepburn. Welcome to Bloomberg daybreak, Europe this morning. So in terms of the markets, we're up by four tenths of 1% for European stocks delivery hero, although it's cut it, gross merchandise value for 2022 its share price actually sawing and also boosting others in that sector. In terms of bond markets though, close on Italian BTPs this morning, trading at three 36, so plunging some 18 basis points German yields are also down by 14 basis points one spot zero 7 U.S. yields at two 82. The Euro slumped 6 tenths of 1% one spot zero one 6 two. So that is a look at the market. It's just breaking on the term law UK July manufacturing PMI comes in actually above forecasts 52.2 is the manufacturing PMI, the services PMI is at 53.3. So that from the services and manufacturing PMI. Yeah, a little bit more robust than the Euro area figures we had earlier. Those show that the Euro area basically flat over the course of July Germany both manufacturing and services showing in contraction. Let's get to our top stories now. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years that announced a new tool to combat disorderly moves in sovereign bond yields. Bloomberg's max Ramsay has more from Frankfurt. Well, the hike was guaranteed, but what was not was the size of the move from the ECB and it came in decidedly hawkish at 50 basis points double the consensus 25. It was a unanimous decision from Christine de guard and her governing council as the Eurozone tackles, of course, not only high inflation, but also crises that range from energy security to Italian politics. The other mystery that this meeting sheds some light on was the Central Bank's anti fragmentation to its designed to ensure markets don't push up borrowing costs to aggressively invulnerable economies. We know more now about the conditionality, the eligibility and also the scope potentially unlimited is not restricted X anti. In Frankfurt, max Ramsey Bloomberg daybreak Europe. Or the new tool to fight Bond sprays came as Italy endured a fresh bout of political turmoil Italian prime minister Mario Draghi resigned as p.m. yesterday triggering elections to be held on the 25th of September. Meanwhile here in the UK sawing food and fuel prices and rising interest rates have kept consumer confidence at a 48 year low, according to the latest monthly research by JFK, all of the measures that make up the confidence index remain deep in negative territory. One bright spot though, UK retail sales, The Office for national statistics shows that they are down .1% covering everything in pound terms that sold in shops and online. Well, Bank of America CEO Brian moynihan has told Bloomberg that U.S. consumer spending remains healthy in the face of inflation and geopolitical turmoil. He also says the bank is sticking to its original hiring plans even as other big corporations pull back. I don't think it's peaked yet. Our economists would say it's peaking. Our team basically says that the fed will continue to raise rates and actually Candice browning pipe that research team at Bank of America has the year end recession, which they made a call on a few weeks ago. But it's a slight recession and a recession is not accompanied by high unemployment, which means it ought to write itself and come back out. But it's more impact to the fed raising rates and slowing economy. So it's peaking that's probably more appropriate than peak. Probably 100, that's the Bank of America's CEO speaking to Bloomberg. The comments come as Goldman Sachs says it's slowing the pace of hiring to reign in expenses while reinstating annual performance reviews to weed out the worst performing staff. Also, in U.S. politics, former president Donald Trump took no action to stop the storming of the capitol building. That's according to the congressional committee investigating January 6th, Alex holder, filmed the last TV interview that Trump gave in The White House, he asked the former president directly if he regretted what happened that day. In Mar-a-Lago about January 6th, he said, so he does start off by saying it's a sad day. But I don't believe that he's referring to the tragic events as being said. I think it was a sad day in the sense that he didn't get what he wanted. He had made it very clear that his last hurrah essentially. The last thing he could do to maintain his control and remain the president was to intervene in the ceremonial process on January 6th to stop the counting of the Electoral College votes. Well, we'll be bringing you more of that interview with Alex holder later in the program, the January 6th committee are trying to build a case that Trump acted illegally by holding more hearings in September. And BlackRock is launching investment products designed for female investors. The story from Bloomberg's Charlie palette. The world's largest asset manager has created model portfolios that take into account gender discrepancies around life expectancy, time in the workforce and income. One major difference for women is that on average, they live 5 years longer than men and spend around a year out of the workforce to care for family. In New York, Charlie palette, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. Right, those are our top stories for you this morning. Now to one of our key interviews, we're down to two candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party and therefore prime minister will find out in September, both will face those significant economic challenges from higher energy prices, record inflation, to the longer term pressures from an aging population in Britain moving us to a net zero economy. So many challenges, joining us now to discuss is Ben's or ranco senior research economist at the institute of fiscal studies, Ben great to have you with us. You've been looking at the programs as much as we know them from Liz truss and Rishi sunak. We know obviously more about the former chancellors economic plans, but you say that actually they both do represent very different offerings. They both want tax cuts put on a different time horizon. What do you take away from trust and soon acts economic agendas? I think we know a great deal about what Rishi sunak's economic policy gender might look like because he was of course Chancellor for the last couple of years. He had lots of chances to set out his stall and I think we have a fairly good idea of what things might look like at least over the next few years. Liz trust has indicated a bit of a more shaking things up a bit more change of direction. She's promising large scale tax cuts, that's partly just reversing tax rises that have already been announced that are already in the books. And she's promising to relook at the Bank of England's mandate. She's talking about changing the government's fiscal rules. She's talking about almost a much bigger shift in Britain's economic policy. And I think that the key dividing line between the two for me is Rishi sunak is prioritizing safe stewardship of the public finances, prioritising getting inflation down a public fences and a healthy position before he's willing

Bloomberg Europe Frankfurt Johnson mill Caroline Hepburn European Central Bank max Ramsay Alex holder Christine de guard Bank of America Russia max Ramsey Bloomberg U.S. Brian moynihan UK Charlie palette Boris Johnson Candice browning
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:04 min | 8 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Day wins For odds and more information this VA lottery dot com Put out the full report on the Bloomberg terminal this morning From latterly BNP Paribas They have really quite an extraordinary report out talking about how housing and child care costs coupled with wealth inequalities risking social unrest in Britain Protest and extremism is what they talked about They said for example that the UK did worse even than Latvia That this is the kind of core promise of a capitalist democracy that this generation young generation between 26 and 40 are going to be worse off than their parents Put this into context for us I mean I do think this is a kind of an extraordinary moment in Britain where households are just under so much pressure and there could be significant consequences People face that hit today incomes I think that's right As you alluded to in the introduction expecting now a hit to real household disposable incomes of more than 2% next year the worst we've had in any single year since the late 1950s So we just don't have experience in recent times of how the public are going to react to such a squeeze on the living standard It's not something very accustomed to There is a generational element to this one of the things that's going on at the moment in the last few months of government has announced change to the student loan system which basically amounts to an effective tax rise to low to mid learning recent graduates the vast majority of whom are young And then we also saw yesterday the Chancellor saying well the national insurance rise is still going to go ahead That's a tax on earnings It's not paid by those who receive their income from pensions But then I'm going to cut income tax in the middle of this decade which will benefit those pensions So it's effectively we're paying for a tax on pensioners by increasing the tax on earnings So the exacerbating those generational goals I think that I wouldn't build perhaps so far as to predict social unrest But I think we might also worry about the potential for industrial action and strike action particularly in the public sector where for low inflation pay awards seem a certainty That's going to be tricky to wear for lots of public sector unions doctor nurses teachers et cetera So yes it could be a very difficult few months We shouldn't underestimate just how big the economic challenges are Yeah the two you see the trades union Congress general secretary Francis so Grady saying that we did not get the urgent help with sawing bills that families need that was her quote In terms of the reaction So then I suppose my question again Ben is what could conservative MPs what could this government think about doing differently I mean the leveling up agenda is there it sort of answers some of those issues around pressure on households on generational change on areas that are not performing well But we didn't get that much in terms of the leveling up agenda if anything from this spring budget So just a brief word on what the government might need to deliver in the autumn budget the big moment in September I think I will be surprised if it has to come back before the autumn Given the reaction to this and given how badly we know households are going to be squeezed Do you remember that a lot of this hasn't happened yet Gas bills households I haven't even gone up yet The tax charge hasn't kicked in yet It's going to be next month when things start to be felt And I think that the klamath is my help is only going to grow He might for instance want to come back with more Yesterday you have the poultry 500 million discretionary fund to the most vulnerable He might want to come back with more as it becomes more apparent just how hard these number households are being hit Those households have cost concentrated in some of those poorer parts of the country that government is so keen on leveling up He might also need to think about the fact that he's talked about public services being key and like supporting local government as being key or leveling up Well higher inflation means that spending plans are now less generous in real terms as you're going to provide a top up to maintain the generosity of those Is he going to think about the fact that public sector employment makes up a much bigger share of local jobs in potential at the northeast than it does in London Is he going to think about how squeezing product sector paying and posing the 5% real pay cut will help those local economies So I think he will have to come back perhaps in my health in the autumn But ultimately we are as a country now as an energy and partner in the face of global energy prices Just we are going to be worse off They can't protect us from that forever but he could certainly do more to help those at the very bottom if you so wished Ben thank you so much for your time lovely to speak to you Ben taranco is senior research economist at the institute for fiscal study So rather dissatisfied with what the Chancellor had to offer yesterday it was overwhelmingly welcomed though as a spring statement by conservative MPs of course.

Britain BNP Paribas Francis so Grady Latvia UK Ben Congress government Ben taranco London institute for fiscal study
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:43 min | 8 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Households cuts to fuel duty and national insurance in his spring statement Global news 24 hours a day on air and at Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Laura Wright this is Bloomberg Caroline Thank you so much Laura for our top stories Well let's continue then The discussion around the cost of living crisis really hitting home here in the UK the verdict on the Chancellor's spring statement As you mentioned he had to defend his package of tax cards saying that he's making sure I'm on people's side But sawing energy bills and inflation mean that Britain's are still facing the worst squeeze on living standards in at least 6 decades the OBR the independent budget watchdog says that households face a 2.2% decline in disposable incomes just in the coming fiscal year Joining me now is benzo anko senior research economist at the institute for fiscal studies Good morning Ben thanks for being with me What did the Chancellor do and what could he have done more The Chancellor took what is a largely improving situation for the public finances driven by higher inflation chose to bank some of it perhaps in the help of using it for pre election tax cuts and he chose to offset some of his existing package of tax rises with a smaller package of tax cuts mainly to try and burnish his reputation as a tax cutting Chancellor And what you chose not to do is to provide anything in the way of substantial support for lower income households of the pensioners If you're a pensioner who doesn't drive off so many relies on looking at its benefits during there was almost nothing in the way of support for those households and yesterday's statement So it was quite brave in the face of such a large squeeze of living standards as you just alluded to But the chance that seems to have one eye on perhaps later this year about because of the election very really wants to be able to cut taxes and in the meantime he's willing to households take a really substantial hit the living standards as part of that But I suppose he gave his explanation which is that the outlook is incredibly uncertain I mean you say that public finances are looking okay now but the issue is about whether they'll stay that way borrowing over the next fiscal year forecast at 99 billion pounds 16 billion higher than previously predicted debt interest costs hitting a record 83 billion pounds The point of those figures essentially Ben is that the public finances could get a lot worse We don't know Absolutely And the OBR highlighted just how uncertain things are at the moment Clearly this is a particularly precarious moment not just for the economy but for the global economy And we don't know how things are going to pan out particularly in terms of how long this surgeon energy prices will last how long inflation will take to get back to something more like what we've come to know as the new normal And what that means for the government So yes you could say that it's just being prudent and it's perhaps holding some of this money back in case you need to in case things do turn out worse I would say that that isn't the rhetoric he was giving He was particularly emphasizing the tax cuts and the fact that he wants to make more tax cuts that readers seem to be the direction he's going and I think that also it says a lot about his priorities He was willing to spend about half of the windfall he received He chose to spend that largely on things that benefit middle earners and particularly drivers Rather than those at the very bottom and most vulnerable those would be most effective and those are more struggle to weather the storm I think we could learn something about his priorities It's not just about such an uncertain environment There's also political choices that he made there He could for instance have chosen to increase benefits in line with a more recent measure of inflation so they're currently going to go up but they're not currently they're going to go by September measure of inflation just over 3% It could have said okay we'll take the January of February measure that would actually cost anything in the long term but he's chosen not to do so on households but we do have to think about businesses too He promised to cut taxes for business investment but not till the autumn So the reaction from the CBI the big business lobby of course Tony dankers say that it's not enough to tackle the current challenges facing firms I mean this is the other issue isn't it If we don't get firms to grow and high paying jobs for the UK then again that's going to be a hit to living standards So there's pressure to do more for businesses surely How much did he give There is definitely pressure to do more for businesses and the chunks of those indicators That's a key part of his economic vision in his economic agenda I mean we didn't see much of that Yes basically said you're here for me again in the autumn but you gave a lecture recently in which you talked about the importance of trying to boost business investment which has been historically quite in the UK So yesterday there wasn't much in the spot for businesses We may see something come around in the autumn and I'm sure business would like to see something sooner but there will have to wait And that's sort of a broader package here There's a broader pattern which is that it seems to have tried to be just enough to tie them over the next few months And it's going to come back in the afternoon with all the big substantial policy decisions I think he was hoping not to do anything at all this time around but his hand was really forced Okay There is another please walk Sparky for me No way I'll throw in a caramel frappe Oh Make it a large deal.

Laura Wright Bloomberg Caroline OBR benzo anko Ben thanks institute for fiscal studies Bloomberg Laura UK Britain Tony dankers Ben CBI Sparky
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:08 min | 8 months ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And at 6 30 a.m. here in London a very good morning I'm Caroline Hepburn Welcome to daybreak Europe Now in a moment I'm going to be taking a look at the spring statement from Rishi sunak He had a defend the amount of money that he spent helping households amidst an energy and food and fuel price squeeze We have now the highest tax burden since 1949 here in the UK We will be speaking to the senior research economist at the institute for fiscal studies Ben This of course the president Joe Biden is in Europe for back to back meetings NATO G 7 and EU meetings around the war in Ukraine and trying to cement a deal to help Europe wean itself off Russian energy how quick and easy might that be As for global markets this morning bond market stemming record losses so we see U.S. yields right now two 35 up 5 basis points We've seen a sell off in stocks that continues in Asia MSCI Asia Pacific index now down a quarter of 1% but actually futures have turned positive for U.S. stocks 50 futures up two tenths S&P 500 even many features up four tenths of 1% Also keep in mind of course that Vladimir Putin has demanded that quote unfriendly countries pay for energy in rubles to the ruble sword yesterday although it still 31% weaker than it was on a year ago versus the U.S. dollar even if it got a 5% boost And Brent crude prices trade now at a $121 at the barrel We also saw Nat gas prices in Europe as surging 30% yesterday That's a look at the markets then and the Bordeaux overview Let's get to our top stories now but it both Laura Wright has the details Good morning Caroline president Joe Biden has touched down in Brussels ahead of key summits with NATO and G 7 leaders later The alliance will consider a packet of new sanctions at once placed on Russia Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story Along with a show of solidarity the U.S. wants some even stiffer penalties placed on Russia and national security adviser Jake Sullivan says enforcement is very important to agree on.

Caroline Hepburn Rishi sunak Europe Ben This institute for fiscal studies U.S. Joe Biden NATO Ukraine London Asia Pacific EU Vladimir Putin UK Laura Wright
"research economist" Discussed on Science Magazine Podcast

Science Magazine Podcast

03:42 min | 1 year ago

"research economist" Discussed on Science Magazine Podcast

"That might yet be undetected? Our results suggest that upwards of a quarter of this group of non native species, the hemiptera species may not have been discovered at the end of our study in 2012. That's a substantial portion. It's about 250 species compared to at that point we had discovered about 700 species. One of the goals of this paper seems to be to model the relationship between trade and invasives and figure out what the main drivers are that disconnect them, what lessons can we take away from this? I think there are a couple of lessons. I think for targeting inspection efforts, this can provide some really great background information. We see that the marginal risk changes pretty dramatically over time and it changes across world regions. What this means is that we may have a relatively risky trading partner that then the risk from their imports decreases over time in contrast. Some imports may become more risky over time. The other thing that we found that was extremely interesting was thinking very carefully about how to account for some of these really important mechanisms in the discovery process was really helpful. So we have a nice proxy for search effort in here. What this means is that how hard are we looking for the bugs? It's very hard to measure. This can be done by academic institutions, governments, individuals, just about anyone can look for bugs. So it's really hard to know how much search effort is going on. So we use discoveries of native amateur species to proxy for those. And that really helped us to identify a very important part of the establishment and discovery process. And I think that this can open a lot of new avenues for thinking about how to use your existing information to answer the questions that you're looking at about non native species discoveries. Is it possible to take this approach, making a model like this, looking at the history of discovery and helping other places in the world model their invasives influx and maybe help abate that? I'll stay away from the policy implications of it. But using similar information, we could certainly study the establishment and discovery process in other contexts. There's nothing that's necessarily unique about the U.S., other than we have some great data resources that allow us to look back at trade into the mid 19th century. And that we have an abundance of species records to draw from. Thanks, Matt. Thank you, Sarah. Matthew McLaughlin is a research economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, economic research service. You can find a link to the science advances paper we discussed at science dot org slash podcast. Stay tuned for the next installment in our series on books at the intersection of race and science. This month, host Angela saney.

Matthew McLaughlin U.S. Department of Agriculture U.S. Matt Sarah Angela saney
"research economist" Discussed on Science Magazine Podcast

Science Magazine Podcast

08:22 min | 1 year ago

"research economist" Discussed on Science Magazine Podcast

"This is the science podcast for October 29th, 2021. I'm Sarah crespi, each week we feature the most interesting news and research published in science and the sister journals. First up this week we have, why brainless animals sleep? Jellyfish, Hydra, roundworms. They all have a version of sleep. Liz ponisi is a staff writer for science. She talks about what we can learn from these simple sleepers. Next, we're gonna look at centuries of alien invasions or put more simply invasive insects moving around the planet with trade. Matthew McLaughlin is a research economist at the USDA economic research service. He wrote in science advances about how long it takes us to realize an invader is already here. Finally, a book on racism and search algorithms. Angela saney is the host for a series of interviews on race and science. This month, she talks with safiya noble about her book. Algorithms of oppression, how search engines reinforce racism. Did you know that jellyfish can sleep? Brainless creatures, like Hydra, roundworms, these things seem to need sleep, or something like sleep. This week, we have a special issue on sleep, and there are a ton of open questions in this area. Liz ponisi is a staff writer for science. She wrote about what simple sleepers can tell us about the big sleep questions. Hi Liz. Hi. I love the way you open your piece with these really existential sleep thoughts. How can something without a brain or even neuron sleep? And why do they need to sleep? My favorite, though, is this idea of sleep as the default state and that wakefulness is the evolved state. Can you expand on that? For a long time, people just thought about sleep in terms of something that you need for the brain. And now recently they've been finding sleep like or sleep behavior in ever simpler creatures. And that's led some researchers to speculate when sleep evolve and to think that it evolved in the very, very beginning of life. And so there's one idea out there that life started out as a pretty dormant thing and that wakefulness. In other words, the ability to respond to the environment and adapt to the environment is a secondary state, whether or not this is true, I have no idea. But it's an interesting way to think about it because it kind of puts the burden of wakefulness on us rather than the burden of sleep when we're trying to figure out how it evolve. Exactly. If we start with brainy creatures, maybe it's a little easier here. How do we define sleep in animals with brains? The definition of sleep has shifted over time, depending on the technology we have for measuring sleep. So of course, early on, it was just what happens when you go to sleep. You lay down. You become oblivious to the world around you. You wake up noises, but you might not wake up if someone walks by you. So what they call unresponsive to stimuli. And another key thing is if you don't get the sleep you need, you have to make up for it. So that was one definition that held sway up until the 50s or 60s. Then researchers developed ways to put electrodes, which measure electrical activity on their surface of the brain or the scalp. So, you know, you can think about those little wires attached by little adhesive tape. They attach electrodes to the surface of the head and they watch what happens in the brain and they notice that when people sleep, they have two kinds of sleep that have active sleep or rem sleep and then quiet sleep or non rem sleep. And so for a period of time, that's how researchers really knew that people were asleep and really defined sleep in that way by the electrical activity in the brain. So what happens after looking at the brainwaves? What have we done new things since then? Since then, people began to think about, well, maybe something besides mammals sleep. For the longest time we thought only mammals and maybe birds went to sleep and needed to sleep. Because they have big brains and they always brains need to rest and rejuvenate. But then at the turn of the 21st century, some researchers started looking at fruit flies and lo and behold, found they sleep. But because they didn't have electrodes to put on the scalps of these fruit flies. So they turned to the older definition of sleep, which is based on the behavior laying down, stopping moving, becoming unresponsive, needing to have makeup for deprived sleep. And using those criteria, they figured out that, yes, fruit flies sleep. And so do crayfish and octopus and roundworms and a whole bunch of other things. How can you even detect sleep in something like a jellyfish, which I think is one of the examples that you bring up in the story? They focused on a behavior and started videoing whether or not that behavior changed. So with these jellyfish, which are called upside down jellyfish because they hang out with their tentacles facing the surface of the water. They notice that they tend to spend time at the bottom of an aquarium say if you watch them in the lab where the bottom of the shallow area where they're saying. And so they realized since these jellyfish sort of stay put in are not constantly floating around. They could actually video them over a 24 hour period to see if they change what they did and what they watched is how often the jellyfish pulse and move their tentacles in a uniform way to get water to pass over them. And what in a video them over the day in the night, they noticed that the pulse rate changes from about 60 beats a minute to about 39 beats a minute. And so they thought, okay, that might be sleep. So to further test that, they then looked at whether or not the jellyfish were unresponsive. In other words, like you, when you're asleep, you don't notice when somebody walks by. This jellyfish notice when you do something that might disturb them. And the way they tested that is they made a false bottom in their aquarium and basically pulled the bottom out from underneath them. Now during the day, as soon as you do that, the jellyfish swim down to the nu bottom. No hesitation. But at night when they're posting only 39 beats and are maybe asleep, it takes them quite a long while to sort of recognize that they're not at the bottom anymore and move back down. And what if you deprive them of their slow beat time? Then what you notice the next night that they sleep the sleep more soundly. In other words, they pulse even more slowly and they pull slowly for an ever long period of time. So I want to sense they're making up for lost sleep. Can we call that sleep or is this just a circadian rhythm? Is this just syncing up with the processes of the world that are all synced up to the sun and the darkness and the light periods? Well, you know, that's a difficult question and there's some debate in the research community about whether jellyfish.

Liz ponisi Sarah crespi Matthew McLaughlin Angela saney safiya noble USDA Liz
"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:18 min | 1 year ago

"research economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The UK will not be required to undergo isolation arrival from November 1st Now in Wales there are new targets under the government's COVID vaccine plans with all 12 to 15 year olds to be offered a jab by the start of the month It's hoped everyone eligible for a booster will have had a chance to get it by the 31st of November There are also a big push over in Wales a fort flew jabs this year too And the world's 20 richest countries will meet later to discuss their approach to dealing with the Taliban Now that they're in charge of Afghanistan the G 20 which includes Russia and China will gather after Italy's prime minister said they need to find a sharp objectives to save lives and prevent a terrorism Yesterday the U.S. agreed to send humanitarian aid to the Afghan people but continued to refuse to recognize the Taliban politically Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries and January this is Bloomberg roger Leon thank you Garrett with the latest global news Now it's time for Bloomberg green our weekly deep dive into key issues on climate and how it's changing business finance and politics This week the cost of making Britain greener than he report from the institute for fiscal study says reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is going to be much more expensive than it needs to be because of the complex inconsistent or nonexistent policies where we're joined by Isaac Zelle ASTRO whose research economist at IFS co author of the report Isaac thanks so much for being with us very good morning to you What about current UK climate policy is making the transition to net zero more difficult Yes morning roger So I think the place to start is to say that the classic economic textbook answer to problem like climate change is that very simply what you do is you impose a tax on carbon and that makes producing emissions more expensive and disincentivizes them So what we try to do in this bit of work is we've tried to do essentially audit of all the policies that are in place in the UK and try and see how those translate into affected carbon taxes in the UK economy So what we found is that over the last three decades or so governments are put in place an amazingly complex patchwork of different policy initiatives Many of those policies have been very well intentioned in all of themselves But when you take them together what you find is that there's really quite an incoherent picture ends up being painted in the sense that we're essentially very high carbon taxes in some parts of the economy and much lower carbon taxes in other parts of the economy once you take all these schemes together So just give you a few examples If you look at the carbon content of business electricity so the electricity consumed by many businesses or if you look at the carbon content of diesel and petrol those things have effectively quite high carbon taxes levied on them But then if you look at things like household gas burn for home heating obviously and if you look at things like a lot of long haul aviation you find that those things are effectively tax subsidized And so if you end up having this very inconsistent picture of how much your pricing carbon at the overall effect of that is going to mean that we end up spending a lot more than we need to to reach net zero is going to make it more costly and the less efficient transition is actually Okay so it's a real patchwork at the moment If you were in charge what kind of two or three things would you have top of the list And obviously this is in focus for Boris Johnson ahead of cop 26 Absolutely So I think one of the big focus is really has to be consistency So it's not necessarily about saying there's this one panacea policy that's going to make everything better that's going to fix the system I think the way we need to move is just to try and work out how we can increase this incentives to consume some of these things where at the moment we're really not providing any disincentive at all So I mentioned household gas That's a really important one Because it's a big it's a big source of emissions and it's also additions that haven't fallen very much over the last 30 years or so So providing a disincentive for people to use maybe quite as much gas or to switch away to more green forms of household heating would be a really good thing Now of course as we've seen recently there's been a great deal of political pressure on things like the gas price So they're probably would have to be gradual transition toward something like that And also it's really worth noting that there are these pretty complicated and very difficult equality questions here as well So one thing one thing we found in our research is that if you look at the poorest 10% of households each pound that those households spend is associated with about 20% more emissions than for the richest 10% The divisions in the country exist right across including in terms of working towards net zero Isaac.

COVID roger Leon UK institute for fiscal study Taliban Wales Isaac Zelle ASTRO IFS Bloomberg Garrett Afghanistan Russia Italy Isaac Britain China roger government U.S. Boris Johnson
"research economist" Discussed on Houston Public Media Local Newscasts

Houston Public Media Local Newscasts

02:19 min | 1 year ago

"research economist" Discussed on Houston Public Media Local Newscasts

"Oh <Speech_Male> california stocks <Speech_Male> gained ground on wall <Speech_Male> street. The dow one hundred and thirty <Speech_Male> one points. The nasdaq <Speech_Male> rose twenty one <Speech_Male> points. <SpeakerChange> Today this <Speech_Male> is. Npr <Speech_Female> live <Speech_Female> from news. Eighty eight seven <Speech_Female> in houston <Speech_Female> on guilt. Lauder <Speech_Female> <Speech_Female> data shows. Houston's <Speech_Female> apartment market <Speech_Female> is seeing a major turnaround <Speech_Female> from a pandemic <Speech_Male> slump <Speech_Male> and <Speech_Female> martin tells us it's <Speech_Female> partly because of the current <Speech_Male> challenges <SpeakerChange> of buying <Speech_Male> a home more <Speech_Male> than ten percent <Speech_Male> of houston's available <Speech_Male> apartment supply <Speech_Male> was vacant last <Speech_Male> year but vacancy <Speech_Male> rates are now down <Speech_Female> to pre pandemic levels <Speech_Female> and in fact lower <Speech_Male> than twenty nineteen <Speech_Male> texas <Speech_Male> a and m universities <Speech_Male> real estate research <Speech_Male> center estimates <Speech_Male> too low vacancy <Speech_Male> rate will continue <Speech_Male> across the state <Speech_Male> through at least twenty <Speech_Male> twenty three luis <Speech_Male> torres as a <Speech_Male> research economist who <Speech_Male> co authored the outlook <Speech_Male> he says one <Speech_Male> factor is historically <Speech_Male> low inventory <Speech_Male> of single family <Speech_Male> homes which <Speech_Male> leads many renters to <Speech_Male> postpone. Homeownership <Speech_Music_Male> abide <Speech_Music_Male> by <Speech_Music_Male> business. <Speech_Music_Male> Strong demand <Speech_Music_Male> as cost <Speech_Music_Male> increases <Speech_Music_Male> such a high rate. <Speech_Music_Male> Fortunately somehow <Speech_Music_Male> schools have <Speech_Music_Male> been out <Speech_Male> of <SpeakerChange> the market. <Speech_Male> Your personal torres <Speech_Male> says other factors <Speech_Male> for strong apartment <Speech_Male> market include <Speech_Male> the pandemic stimulus <Speech_Female> payments an increase <Speech_Male> in covet nineteen <Speech_Female> vaccinations <Speech_Male> which is enabling <Speech_Male> many to go back to <Speech_Male> work. <SpeakerChange> I'm flooring <Speech_Male> and martin in houston <Speech_Female> from beaumont <Speech_Female> this afternoon <Speech_Female> more than six hundred <Speech_Female> contract. Workers <Speech_Female> at exxonmobil's <Speech_Female> refine ray are <Speech_Female> still locked. Out of the plant. <Speech_Female> <Speech_Female> Mad herald says <Speech_Female> a company has turned down <Speech_Female> multiple proposals <Speech_Female> from the union <Speech_Male> which could <SpeakerChange> have ended <Speech_Male> the dispute. Exxon <Speech_Male> mobil turned <Speech_Male> down three proposals <Speech_Male> from the union in <Speech_Male> august which would have <Speech_Male> returned workers <Speech_Male> to their jobs. According <Speech_Male> to reuters <Speech_Male> the lockout has been <Speech_Male> underway for more than <Speech_Male> four months now <Speech_Male> in a statement. <Speech_Male> Exxon says quote. <Speech_Male> The union has not <Speech_Male> presented an offer <Speech_Male> that came close <Speech_Male> to meeting the company's <Speech_Male> objectives <Speech_Male> the oil and gas <Speech_Male> giant says they're installing <Speech_Male> a group of basic <Speech_Male> refinery <Speech_Male> operators for the beaumont <Speech_Male> facility. <Speech_Male> Some have already been <Speech_Male> recruited <SpeakerChange> and began <Speech_Male> training last <Speech_Female> week. Texas <Speech_Female> drivers are paying <Speech_Male> a little more for gas <Speech_Female> as week. <Speech_Female> Aaa texas <Speech_Female> says. The statewide <Speech_Female> average is two eighty <Speech_Female> one. And <Speech_Female> that's up two cents <Speech_Female> from last week. <Speech_Female> We have a slight <Speech_Female> chance of rain this evening. <Speech_Female> Overnight low <Speech_Female> expected to drop down <Speech_Female> to about seventy <Speech_Female> eight degrees <Speech_Female> some rain around the <Speech_Female> area eighty four <Speech_Female> on the u h campus <Speech_Female> <SpeakerChange> on gale <Speech_Male> daughter. News eddie <Speech_Male> eight. Seven support for npr comes from npr stations. Other contributors include.

"research economist" Discussed on Houston Public Media Local Newscasts

Houston Public Media Local Newscasts

02:35 min | 1 year ago

"research economist" Discussed on Houston Public Media Local Newscasts

"This programming is <Speech_Female> brought to you by houston. <Speech_Female> Trans star <Speech_Female> helping keep motorists <Speech_Female> informed roadways <Speech_Female> clear and <Speech_Female> live safe <Speech_Female> offering an app designed <Speech_Female> to alert drivers <Speech_Female> to real time. Traffic <Speech_Female> flooded <Speech_Female> roads construction <Speech_Female> and more <Speech_Female> available at houston <Speech_Female> trans <SpeakerChange> star <Speech_Male> dot org <Speech_Male> live from news. Eighty <Speech_Male> eight seven in houston. <Speech_Male> I'm matt hera. <Speech_Male> new state. data <Speech_Male> shows more. Kids are <Speech_Male> being treated for cove <Speech_Male> in nineteen locally <Speech_Male> and statewide <Speech_Male> compared to any point <Speech_Male> during the pandemic <Speech_Male> louisa. <Speech_Male> Stransky is in <Speech_Male> effect an infectious disease <Speech_Male> expert at memorial <Speech_Male> hermann and <Speech_Male> says there's a big difference <Speech_Male> between pediatric <Speech_Male> covert patients <Speech_Male> this year <Speech_Male> compared to last <Speech_Male> year though <SpeakerChange> outside of <Speech_Male> just how many <Speech_Male> there are <Speech_Male> no longer <Speech_Male> the she <Speech_Male> you know as we were <Speech_Male> initially academic <Speech_Male> Kids with <Speech_Male> underlying rigidities <Speech_Male> or <Speech_Male> developmentally <Speech_Male> shoes. We <Speech_Male> are not seeing healthy. <Speech_Male> Kids healthy <Speech_Male> teenagers <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> Which of your coed. We're <Speech_Male> seeing babies <Speech_Male> and <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Male> that is very <Speech_Male> disturbing. An average <Speech_Male> of two hundred seventy <Speech_Male> three pediatric <Speech_Male> patients were <Speech_Male> in texas hospitals <Speech_Male> per day <Speech_Male> in Last <Speech_Male> week according <Speech_Male> to stay data <Speech_Male> with coverted eighty <Speech_Male> six of whom were <Speech_Male> in the houston area. <Speech_Male> Houston <Speech_Male> apartment market is seeing <Speech_Male> a major turnaround <Speech_Male> after a pandemic <Speech_Male> slump <Speech_Male> as flora and martin <Speech_Male> reports part of <Speech_Male> it is due to the current <Speech_Male> challenges of buying <Speech_Male> a home more than ten <Speech_Male> percent of houston's <Speech_Male> available apartments <Speech_Male> supply was <Speech_Male> vacant last year <Speech_Male> but vacancy rates <Speech_Male> are now down to <Speech_Male> pre pandemic levels <Speech_Male> and in fact lower <Speech_Male> than twenty nineteen <Speech_Male> texas <Speech_Male> a and m. universities <Speech_Male> real estate research <Speech_Male> center estimates <Speech_Male> too low vacancy <Speech_Male> rate will continue <Speech_Male> across the state <Speech_Male> through at least twenty <Speech_Male> twenty three <Speech_Male> luis torres as <Speech_Male> a research economist <Speech_Male> who co-authored the outlook <Speech_Male> he says one <Speech_Male> factor is <Speech_Male> historically low inventory <Speech_Male> of single <Speech_Male> family homes <Speech_Male> which leads many renters <Speech_Male> to postpone <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Male> home ownership <Speech_Music_Male> also of <Speech_Music_Male> supply by <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Music_Male> phases. Strong demand <Speech_Music_Male> has caused <Speech_Music_Male> is is to increase <Speech_Music_Male> is such a high <Speech_Male> rate. Unfortunately <Speech_Male> somehow skills <Speech_Music_Male> have been <Speech_Music_Male> out <SpeakerChange> of <Speech_Male> market your personal <Speech_Male> torres <Speech_Male> says other factors <Speech_Male> for strong apartment <Speech_Male> market include the <Speech_Male> pandemic stimulus <Speech_Male> payments and an increase <Speech_Male> in covent nineteen <Speech_Male> maxim nations <Speech_Male> which is enabling many <Speech_Male> to go back to work. <Speech_Male> I'm flooring <Speech_Male> martin in houston <Speech_Male> and more than six hundred <Speech_Male> contract <Speech_Male> workers at exxonmobil's <Speech_Male> refinery <Speech_Male> and beaumont are still <Speech_Male> locked out from <Speech_Male> their jobs. According to <Speech_Male> a new report from <Speech_Male> reuters the company <Speech_Male> has already turned down <Speech_Male> three proposals <Speech_Male> from the union. <Speech_Male> The lockout husband <Speech_Male> underway for <Speech_Male> more than four months. <Speech_Male> I met <SpeakerChange> arab news. <Speech_Female> Eighty eight seven <Speech_Female> support for. Npr <Speech_Female> comes from <Speech_Female> npr stations. <Speech_Female> Other contributors include uma a cloud based phone service.

"research economist" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

01:38 min | 1 year ago

"research economist" Discussed on KQED Radio

"To tease out the effect of religion itself, where you'd have a control group and one or more treatment groups. Most religious charities, however, were not interested. David Sutherland could understand why too many of the faith based organizations weren't rolling to set up a control group because they didn't want to, you know, set aside a group of people that were going to preach to But Sutherland himself didn't think like that. If an R C T showed that our current program was not effective, I want to know that as soon as possible so that we can pivot to a program that is even more effective. And so it was that during that breakfast in Hong Kong, Dean Karlan realized that David Sutherland would be a willing partner in his longstanding desire to measure the economic effects of religious belief. I said, Would you ever consider removing the religion from what you're doing is that we can understand how that influences the outcome. Off your program, So we kind of take through all the boxes and in 10 minutes, I said, Yeah, all those things work for us. We're happy to do that. Dean Karlan is hardly the only American economist interested in how religion shapes our economic lives. There is the Association of Christian economists, the Christian Finance Faculty Association, the Catholic research economists, discussion organization credo. We know that religion is one of the most Important powerful forces in society. And so we just want to know what effect does that have on all sorts of things, including economic outcomes. That's James Choi, a finance professor at Yale. He works with Carlin on innovations for Poverty Action. Yes, The problem with doing economics of religion research is the lack of.

Hong Kong Dean Karlan James Choi David Sutherland Christian Finance Faculty Asso 10 minutes Association of Christian econo one Yale Carlin Sutherland Catholic research American Action