18 Burst results for "Rachel Reeves"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"As well here in the UK we are seeing the ten -year guilt yield field at about 448 we'll call it again higher by about three basis points a real turnaround for what you're seeing across the Atlantic German booms the ten -year they're high by one basis point at about 278 a quick check on the dollar strength there for the Bloomberg dollar index higher by two tenths of one percent a good chunk of that coming from euro five six is what we'll call it for your dollar 149 00 for dollar yen and that's Bloomberg your Business Flash Steven. Critty thank you so much well let's go back to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool today the day that Keir Starmbold making his speech there and Caroline Hepker is live in Liverpool for us this morning good morning Caroline Steven Critty good morning Keir Starmer says that the Labour Party is preparing for UK general election as soon as May 2024 we have of course Starmer's key speech at party conference in Liverpool later today he's expected to talk about what is broken can be repaired what is ruined can be rebuilt so setting out the party's stall a government in waiting Josh Simons is the director of Labour Together he's my guest this hour and of course Labour Together describes itself as a network of politicians thrashes and thinkers working to develop Labour's vision for the future of the UK I've given you the whole tagline that's on your website to explain why so it's important to understand your view you know you're advising the shadow cabinet and we're very interested in your views a lot of politicians business leaders acknowledge the UK needs a big change in order to achieve growth how to achieve it what should be the top priorities well I think there are two crucial things that you've heard from Labour in its argument about growth over the course of this conference and actually you know it's a sign of Labour's confidence about where we are as a party and the offer that we're taking to the British public that actually we have focused on the economy that's the issue that Labour would like to focus on and really there's been there's been two crucial pillars the first is to govern with stability and credibility and consistency such a long time in Britain businesses households and families have seen governments chop and change in economic policy chop and change as well and you know the first and most important thing is that Labour wouldn't govern that way okay and then the second thing is this crucial pillar of investment that Labour is you know going to fight the selection next on and that's investment not just in clean energy technologies but in infrastructure and housing too and that's what you'll hear from here today okay I'm interested in what you think here is going to talk about do you think it will have a sort of retail offer an offer to voters or is it going to be more of a big picture positioning of the Labour Party I mean we are still some way ahead of a next general election I mean talk of May or October but no one knows yet I think it'll be more of the big picture positioning and I think that's as it should be you you know we're not in power we're still a year away potentially from an election and it would be foolish for Labour to testing be sitting out retail policy offers at this point it doesn't know the fiscal situation and again you know I know that sometimes people find this boring but a serious party of government wouldn't set out you know a bunch of retail policies that slots cost lots of money before they know what the economic picture is like so I think here is going to be setting out that broad brush big picture argument okay he's being accused of being too cautious particularly on the left of the Labour Party I mean we're 20 points ahead in in the polls for the party but after sort of economic stagnation tax hikes cost of living crisis I mean it could be a point where much more radical well well first I would say there is radicalism in the offer that Labour's developing you know they're proposing to invest a lot of money in clean technologies and infrastructure and housing and that's you know that's a transformational difference to the Conservative Party that I think people sometimes underestimate but you know I think the more important point in a way is Labour are going to have to manage expectations about what happened if Labour win you know Labour can't going be around saying you know on day two of a Labour government your life will feel completely different because it won't you know there is no money and the fiscal situation is extremely tight and a credible serious party will be very clear about the voters whose trust it seeks to win. Okay, you advised Rachel Reeves globally interest rates are high for government financing to fund change that Labour wants. They'll have to raise new government revenue. How can they do that? Well there's two different bits of Labour's spending plans that it's thinking One about. is day -to -day spending and that will only be funded by you know taxation and so that picture will be very tight you know there will not be lots of extra spending giveaways you know. Nurses are not going to have big pay rises on day one of a Labour government that they promised haven't before the election but the second thing is this investment pillar and what Labour, what Rachel Reeves did when she tied that to the third fiscal rule which she said we will only invest in so far as it boosts growth in this country and we will let the OBR judge how well that is going over time so crucially if interest rates are high and borrowing is expensive then we will borrow less to invest we will only invest in so far as debt is falling share as a of GDP at the end of the last year. okay well what of the unions what of are their priorities essentially going to have to come second as Labour tries to court business and has to be very aware of bond markets and those sorts of borrowing costs? I think there's actually an interesting overlap between interests there you know raising productivity and wages is the central goal you know that's the first of Labour's mission to be the highest growing economy in the G7 and that is above all else in Britain productivity and productivity is about wages so I think Labour's plans to invest to boost productivity and to boost wages are exactly what business want but they are also what workers want and I think you know there isn't always is a a coincidence of interest but I think in this case there is I think that's interesting I'm going through the hall here looking at the stands of many many unions they're talking about you know not crossing picket lines productivity I'm sure not is the message that unions have got for their workers productivity is about skills upskilling yourself and it's also about investment in large bits of equipment that business can make order in to deliver that productivity are unions really focused on what has been an issue that has plagued the UK two if not three decades productivity yes I mean if you read a recent you see report on skills you know they're focused on productivity and they're of course the union of unions and the crucial thing about productivity is that we know wages and productivity rise and fall together you know they have done for decades and what's happened in Britain as you just mentioned is that productivity is flatlined and so wages have flatlined and what unions are talking about above all else is that millions of families across this country can't afford to do some of the most basic things and that largely is because their pay packets haven't gone up so I think they are talking about wages and if they're talking about wages in this country they are also talking about productivity. Josh I could ask you so many questions but a last thought are you worried about turnout because you also have a lot of expertise in terms of voter turnout? No I mean one thing about 1997 that's often sort of underweighted about it is that a lot of conservative voters were not frightened of a Labour government and so they stayed at home they didn't feel the need to come out and vote against a Labour government and that is an absolutely vital part of what Labour is doing at the moment. is you know you as it should reassuring not just its own base but the whole country that a Labour government will be credible will be stable and will be serious and if that you know means that conservative voters who frankly are fed up with the Conservative Party don't go out to vote against Labour that's a very good thing.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Battle lines have been drawn and Rachel Reeves, the Shadow Chancellor, has vowed to prevent a repeat of last year's disastrous mini -budget and that was under the Prime Minister of the time, Liz Truss. And we all know what happened during that time. And writing in the Financial Rachel Times, Reeves said this will be done by beefing up the powers of the UK's fiscal watchdog. That is, of course, the Office for Budget Responsibility. Now, in this piece for the Financial Times, she makes it absolutely clear Labour would change the law to guarantee that the could publish independently a forecast of the impact of any fiscal event which will contain things like tax cuts and spending measures above a certain threshold. So she's doing this to reassure the public that this disaster is not going to happen again because the former Chancellor Quasi Kuateng's mini -budget that was presented back in 2022 contained £45 billion of unfunded tax cuts but wasn't accompanied by the usual OBR forecast and this raised huge markets concern, a run on pensions and the Bank of England had to get involved. So Rachel Rees is basically saying I'm the person to trust as they do go ahead with the selection campaigning. I do think a word though on the OBR that's very interesting of course they don't have the mandate or the resources to track the opposition's fiscal plans they do for the government but that's their job but not for the opposition so yes let's see how long that holds that whole view. No and I agree with that and I just wanted to say one thing you know she's saying that she wants a fixed timetable for budgets which some people argue will be a difficult task to make because the OBR right sees them a little bit before and approves them but lots of things are going to change in this article she is outlining. Let's go to the Times next Leanne Warner Brothers expands Batman's base in Watford I didn't realise Watford was actually Gotham City. No well neither did I but Battersea Park was once because Batman was filmed there and I saw it when I was walking my dogs just for the record. Always first with the news. I wondered why there was a smoke machine at the fountain. Anyway the firm behind the Harry Potter film franchise and also Barbie movie is undergoing a massive expansion it will create 4 ,000 new jobs and give a real boost to the struggling film industry here in the UK so this is actually good news. Watford was also going to become the unlikely new home for Batman and Superman fans and this is all after Warner Brothers confirmed this expansion it'll all be done and finished apparently by 2007. Warners expects this investment to indirectly contribute to an extra 200 million pounds a year to the UK economy and it will also really boost the film industry across Europe which Jeremy Hunt the Chancellor is saying is such a good thing planning permission was granted earlier this year and you know the site in the mid 90s was actually a disused airfield and the reason why it actually became famous is because it's where Bond filmed all night so this was the start of this and now obviously loads of things have been filmed their House of Dragon, Game of Thrones and Barbie which I very much enjoyed. One of the UK's big sports of course, cultural assets. The Telegraph has this headline move in and get a free Tesla say desperate developers well well well a new house and a new cars often the dream isn't it now you can make all your dreams come true no a developer started offering Tesla's to buyers of new builds and really this is an effort to attract interest in the evaporating housing market so even though that sounds good there is an underlying concern builders that are really struggling and developers are not shifting their properties. Yeah really interesting stuff Leanne Garrens thanks very much for that review of the newspapers this morning. Now Saturday will mark a year since Liz Choss's government announced the so -called mini budget it was billed as a radical shift in fiscal policy for UK the to stimulate growth and investment but investors balked at the announcements from the then chance the quasi quartet they sparked a crisis in the gilt market sent the pound plunging close to parity with the dollar ultimately and led to the resignation of Liz Truss as Prime Minister we thought we'd bring you of a reminder of how it all played out I will deliver a bold plan to to cut taxes and grow our economy the markets are watching and probably more so than at any time since the referendum in 2016 today we have cut stamp duty we've our allowed businesses to keep more of their own money to invest to innovate and to grow we have cut income tax and national insurance for millions of workers the biggest tax -cutting budget since 1972 we didn't expect the rate to be cut from 45 to 40 P that is something that the Tories have wanted to do they just never felt bold enough to and I mean you've got to say that it's remarkably brave mr. speaker it is unprecedented to have a fiscal statement of this scale with no independent forecasts from office the for budget responsibility never has a government borrowed so much and planes so little look at the pound 110 o9 we're we're pushing lower and lower and lower as the day progresses down two point two five percent unbelievable I can't remember seeing these of kinds moves and we certainly haven't for decades what I'm totally focused on is on delivering on the mini budget making sure that we get growth back into our economy I'm not going anywhere we need to act now to reassure the markets of our fiscal discipline I have asked Jeremy hunt to become the new Chancellor now I recognize we have made mistakes I'm sorry for those mistakes but I fix mistakes can you explain to the public why you think you should remain as Prime Minister given you've jumped a key tax cut that led you to be elected and got rid of your Chancellor Prime Minister but given everything that has happened what credibility do you have to continue governing? I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party so that Liz was Truss announcing her resignation on the 20th of October last year after just 44 days in office Well a year on from those events we've been discussing them with one of the architects of Trussonomics Mark Littlewood first met the former PM at Oxford University in the 1990s and is now the director of the libertarian think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs many of the ideas espoused by Truss were supported by the IEA when the mini -budget first was announced Littlewood called it refreshing a year later we asked him what went wrong? A million things went wrong I think and not all of them are specifically to do with the mini and any budget a lot of them are to do with politics not economics. On economic bit grounds I think there was very good basis for cutting abolishing indeed the top rate of income tax the 45p rate I don't use a complete game -changer I don't think it would boost the economy alone but I think it would be helpful to tax rates at that sort of level I doubt any revenue overall they disincentivize the most productive people in the workforce and it was worth scrapping it. However politically it almost turned into the hill that Liz Truss and Kwasi Kuateng chose to die on because they didn't have sufficient support from the Conservative parliamentary party to go through with it you might blame them for not consulting enough with their parliamentary colleagues there was a lot of questions about the optics of it the politics of it if you like not the economics of it a backbench rebellion began to brew the markets start to judge that the government isn't and then you get into a sort of death spiral if the markets think that the government's going to collapse that makes the chance of the government collapsing higher still so I liked the thinking behind the mini -budget I basically agree with the Liz trust analysis that the biggest problem in our economy has been a lack of growth and that that lack of growth has been because the state's big taxes are too high and the rest of it but you might say they tried to do in the name of a of the Oscar winning movie everything everywhere all at once and a more patient approach might have actually yielded better okay it's interesting though that you don't think that the markets were making a judgement on the nomics of it that they were thinking about the politics about simply the stability of the government I'm sure any bond trader would say no it's about the ability of the government to meet its fiscal obligations and to deliver economically yeah that's fair and I think actually on the fiscal side of the ledger where I was critical it didn't specifically go to the the mini budget but of the trust administration was the colossal size of the energy bailout package I mean it was priced that possibly I think up to 200 billion pounds in fact it hasn't turned out that way but that didn't seem to spook the markets it wasn't expanded upon in the mini budget the mini budget itself carried out the changes that trust had said she would carry out if she became conservative leader namely reversing the corporation tax and the national insurance tax rises then that did add in a bit more as I say the 45p rate there was a 1p reduction on income tax but these are not big ticket items in the overall round of things I mean even the most static of economic models just top that rate the tax would have only cost the exchequer 2 billion pounds and if you build in dynamic effects it probably cost at anything all so then you I think you've got to ask yourself the question if it wasn't content was it communications and and here Caroline I think you might be on to something but it wasn't just the mini budget the Chancellor then sort of appeared on television and said you ain't seen nothing yet and they hadn't really produced any apparent workings of their own on sort of what they
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Morning, everybody. 8, 21 here in London, I'm Anna Edwards, we check the markets all day long here at Bloomberg, so let's get straight to the European equity session. It is 21 minutes old, of course, and we're up by 8 tenths of a percent on the stock 600, the FTSE 100 up, a similar amount. The cake roll doing a little better as is the zetro Dax, both of those up by just over 1%, making up for some of the losses on Friday, in fact, because European equity markets actually suffered worse losses than U.S. equity markets we closed at the session low for U.S. stocks, so we had to recoup a little bit of that perhaps maybe the losses on Friday were overdone here in Europe, but that said, U.S. features also pointing higher so E mini is up by three tenths of 1% NASDAQ features up four tenths of 1%, so it does seem as if we're set for a bit of a rebound from the PCE shock that risk assets got on Friday. Energy stocks are by far the best performing sector here in Europe, so up by 1.7%. And in fact, all sectors are in positive territory this morning, not one of them, is weaker, telecom and healthcare are the weakest, but not in negative territory. It's not driven really by the oil price either 83 17 is where we trade so pretty flat actually for the Brent price compared to the previous close, just checking the U.S. two year we saw a jump in that during Friday's session as a result of that PC print from the U.S. that measure of inflation, 4.81% is where we trade now, the dollar is flat to negative after earlier strength in keeping with the risk off session that we saw during the Asia session that's turned around as other dollar declines, the Euro is at one O 5 54 against the U.S. dollar are actually quite a bit weaker than we've seen in recent weeks, and the pound at one 1960 up one tenth of a percent against the U.S. dollar. That's your building big business flash. Now can prime minister Rishi sunak triumph and deliver a deal on post Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland, an agreement expected to be announced today resolving a hangover from the UK's 2019 withdrawal agreement from the European Union, joining us now for more is our UK correspondent Lizzie bird and Lizzie. We are it is a day of events. What events are we expecting on modern orders that they happen in? Yeah, I know the Brexit day, Steven. We've had two weeks of false starts to live underlying though and riches soon affect to me in Berkshire today, home of the royal castle of wins there around late lunchtime. We don't know whether she's going to meet the king. There was a cost controversy around whether that would be bringing him into politics. But the UK government has said that the prime minister wants four things to ensure that any deal, first of all, fixes the practical problems on the ground in Northern Ireland. Secondly, that it ensures trade flows freely within the United Kingdom. Thirdly, that it safeguards Northern Ireland. Please in the union and force that it returned sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland. So if they can do all that, there's going to be a cabinet meeting in the afternoon where the prime minister of the foreign secretary and the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland given update on the talk. Then the prime minister and Ursula von der leyen will hold a joint press conference. Then the prime minister will head to the commons to make a statement and we're not expecting about to come today, but when it does, it will be a three line whip and Anna and I were speaking to the shadow Chancellor labor's Rachel Reeves earlier. She said that labor will lend the government because it doesn't want to be seen as getting in the way of the good Friday agreement. And I understand that we've actually got a clip of Rachel Reeves Lizzie speaking to us about that. But give us the broader context of what labor's role is here before we hear from that sound bite. Well, in a sense, if you look at the politics, Keir Starmer seems to be trying to coax Rishi sunak into CheckMate. He's been saying that he's weak for weeks. And if he manages to make the prime minister rely on the votes of labor to get a deal through because the prime minister may not be able to with his own brexiters in his party and the democratic unionists opposition, then kiss Dahmer would be able to say, look, you needed us. You can't go in. It's time for a new government. But here's the shadow Chancellor telling us how labor would support the government. We hope that the deal improves upon the Northern Ireland protocol and we've been very clear, labor of the party of the good Friday agreement secured 25 years ago. We'll do nothing to put that in jeopardy. We're not going to play party politics with this. Okay, so that's Rachel Reeves speaking to Lizzie and to Anna a little bit earlier as well as he will check in with you as that story develops. We are looking ahead to that potential deal being announced later today. That's our UK correspondent Lizzie burden reporting there from Westminster for us this morning. Okay, now time for the London rush where we come out time to highlight UK businesses making announcements in London. Joining us now is Bloomberg's breaking news editor Leo Ken Sherpa good morning to you Leo. Let's start with the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Smoked salmon and scrambled eggs offensive as they're calling it continues seemingly successfully. I thought it was very interesting. The conversation between Rachel Reeves the shadow Chancellor in France are from scene LaCroix. Francine asked her about strikes. She asked her about the tax situation as we've just been talking about. And the answers are very similar to what the government's giving. She says she'll get round the negotiating table with the union. She says she'll cut taxes once the economy is growing. But the difference is, labor's in Davos and the Tories on. Okay? Really interesting. Thank you so much to both of you for joining us at Bloomberg's UK correspondent Lizzie Burton and our senior UK economist Dan Hansen. Yeah, for rapping really all of the top business lines when it comes to the UK. Let's get a bit of a roundup though and an update on our top news stories with both Louise moon, hi Luis. Hi. Thank you, Caroline. Let's start in the U.S.. The fed needs to continue to raise rates if it wants to get inflation onto a sustainable path. That's the view of two of the bank's top decision makers who say price rise data is still coming in too hot. The cryptocurrency lended genesis has filed for bankruptcy. The latest firm to collapse in the aftermath of FTX downfall. The company filed for chapter 11 protection in New York, according to court documents. It said in a statement that it plans to use the court process to try to sell assets or raise money. Adding that it would use $150 million of cash to fund itself during bankruptcy. And Bloomberg understands that JPMorgan has set aside at least $10 billion to back its foray into the lucrative world of direct lending. The sizable bet
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Now the paper review on Bloomberg daybreak Europe. The news you need to know from today's papers. All right, let's get to the papers, and for a run through Leanne gerrans joins us. Good morning, Leanne. Now the Financial Times has the headline Jeremy hunt warns not to expect tax cuts in the march budget. I think we should soon access he wants to do the do them at some point, doesn't he, but yes, this is too soon. Too soon, Anna, yes, absolutely right and happy Friday to you. So some conservatives want to start reducing taxes now, but the Chancellor has told MPs that this would be completely irresponsible to do so in as much budget at a time where we have high inflation. The newspaper says Jeremy hunters hoping that by next year inflation will be coming under control, which will allow for a pre election giveaway, which is expected in autumn 2024, so maybe trying to whoo some of those voters back from the Labor Party. However, Tory strategists have also told the newspaper, the path to victory in the next general election is steep and narrow. And as you said, Anna, where she sooner yesterday stressed his desire to cut taxes, but warned voters, they would have to wait because of the COVID-19 crisis and also Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So the Chancellor and the prime minister on the same page. Okay, let's turn to the times next, which says the super rich are falling out of love with Britain. Oh, what a shame mass in it. I always think there's the latest exodus continues. And this is after a trend that really began during the Brexit vote in 2016. This is when thousands of millionaires Stephen, they did choose to leave the UK for greener pastures, dozens of well paid bankers were forced by their employees to relocate around Europe and according to data from Henley and partners a further 1400 high net worth individuals. Now, these are defined of having as wealth in excess of $1 billion so they all left Britain and this was really because of the fallout of Brexit and we saw seeing the hangover effect of that. So if they don't love the UK, where are they going? They're going to the Middle East and Asia apparently. They're not greener but drier. Yes, Sonia. Yes, yes. I should say it's a $1 million as though this is what's being described as a super rich here. And a wealth of excessive a $1 million. Let's turn to The Guardian next, though Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves fill a vacuum in Davos charm offensive, it says. Yes, indeed Steven, so Kia starmer and Rachel Reeves we did see them head off to Davos yesterday and they've really taken advantage of the fact that Rishi sunak and his Chancellor Jeremy hunt did not attend the World Economic Forum, and according to the newspaper labor's top team were there to show the world the party is back to the political middle ground and also probably more important get their message across that. It's now a pro business party. The prime minister, where she sunak may have been missing out, but grant shaps was actually there talking about his plans to scale up Britain and he had a lunch of grilled vegetables and roasted chicken breasts, and this is where he said the UK government had growth strategy. Okay, Leon guerin, thank you very much for that review of the newspapers. This morning, let's turn to matters here in the UK next and these latest UK retail figures showing some 5.8% the headline drop in 2022 our UK correspondent is a burden is with us in studio. Lizzie, these figures are bad, how bad? Well, let's take the monthly figure, first of all, retail sales fell 1% in December, but economists had been expecting actually a gain in retail sales because remember this was the first Christmas without the restrictions of COVID since 2019, but for all the discounting people still tighten their belts because of course this was the month of transport strikes, postal strikes, so that's bad for both in store and online shopping. You also had the cold weather, the cost of living crisis, and you can see the impact of inflation in the distinction between sales and volumes, sales were 13.6% higher in value terms in December compared with pre COVID levels, but volumes were 1.7% lower. In other words, people were spending more buying less. And if you look at this on the annual basis as you originally said, because we've now got the full year of data, this is the worst year on record for UK retailers. So I'm sure many of them are glad to see the back of this race. As measured by the drop in volume of sales so that that full year picture dropping by 5.8% in terms of volume of goods sold, so that's where that statistic comes from. It feels as if we've mentioned all the UK's greatest hits then. There's a feature of this retail sales print then Lizzie strikes, snow, football, so there's weather, the sport, there's everything in there. Despite all of that though, we have employers looking a little more optimistic in January or are they? Well, the recruitment and employment confederation says that job ads were up by a quarter in the first week of January compared to last year. But what that suggests is that firms are having to hire because of the labor shortages, which is why in this week's jobs data you saw that wages were rising at the fastest pace on record outside the pandemic. This is at the same time as you've got the lowest consumer confidence falling for the first time in four months, and the reason for this low confidence is, again, inflation is swallowing those pay rises, but the good news if I can give you some Decision makers who say price wise data is still coming in too hot. Was supported by New York fed president John Williams, who said officials have yet to complete their aggressive tightening campaign. Now the cryptocurrency lender genesis has files for bankruptcy, the latest firm to collect in the aftermath of FTX downfall. Yesterday, the company filed for chapter 11 protection over in New York according to court documents, genesis said in a statement that it plans to use the court process to try to sell assets or raise money. And Bloomberg understands that JPMorgan has set aside at least $10 billion to back its foray into the lucrative world of direct lending, the sizable bet puts JPMorgan in competition with established private credit heavyweights, including Blackstone and also Apollo. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Jan kerens, this is Bloomberg. Steven, I just want to say I added in what grant shaps was eating because that's when he told people that the lunch. I think it was released. If he'd been eating something sensible and saying something sounds about the same time. No, no. All right. Thank you very much. Coming up next with more in the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Financial Times. It's headline is starmer to tell Davos he wants to fix post Brexit relationship with the EU. Stephen good morning to yes so Keir Starmer and Rachel Reese have been giving this drawing interview to the Financial Times and this comes as a head off to Davos today. Now starmer told the paper that the Labor Party would rebuild the UK economy on The Rock office fiscal and financial responsibility. Also that he wants to improve Britain's relations with the EU because the post Brexit trade deal is damaging the UK economy as every day passes. Now Steven, we've heard this from Keir Starmer before. This is nothing new, but he's almost doubling down on his rhetoric. Now the two senior labor politicians have really criticized Rishi sunak in this article to the newspaper two for missing the forum this year. Now Bloomberg will speak to Rachel Reeves, she is of course the shadow Chancellor at 3 p.m. UK time today, but I also feel this appears to be a big shift for labor as I embrace global capitalism, a bit of a difference from when we saw Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the party. I wonder if the current leadership had attended Davos. I wonder how many in the opposition might have suggested that they should be back home dealing with the dealing with the strikes and the cost of living. But anyway, that's not the feature of the story, Leigh Anne, let's get to the times front page, leveling up cash, favors southeast over red war, give us the latest. Yes, of course Anna, so the problem of leveling up is back. This time MPs are accusing the government of making a mockery of leveling up. Now this really comes as the southeast will be handed more regeneration money today than the northeast Yorkshire and also the west Midlands, so 111 communities across the country are going to be benefiting from the second round of leveling up money by the government. But apparently 52 Tory constituencies will benefit, and that's more than twice as many as those represented by labor's MPs. This round has been criticized also by Tory MPs and seats in the north and the Midlands, who are missing out on this cash and really accusing Rishi sunak of giving all his favor to the south. Now Rishi sunak will unveil this 4.8 billion pound of leveling up money today to the successful bidders. He will also give a press conference afterwards, so be watching out for that. Okay, so that's in the times today. The telegraph lead story reads Dyson. Stupid short sighted policies is holding back the economy. Well, I'm glad he's not holding back his opinion, you know, that's all. Well, James Tyson, the billionaire entrepreneur. He's really written bluntly and exclusively in the telegraph and he says growth has become a dirty word and tax rises and also red tape. He warns at the short sighted and stupid economic approach of rashi sunak's government is keeping Britain in a state of COVID inertia, sir James heavily criticized the burden of regulation and increasing tax on companies. Now, this attack really comes from one of the most prominent brexiteer businessmen ahead of the budget that we're going to see on the 15th of March, some speculation there to what I'm thinking. And I also want to say another interesting point when I was reading through this whole interview is Dyson also said the government is badly damaged to the country's self belief and work ethic, and that's by not getting workers back into the office Caroline. No, Anna. Okay, which works for everyone. She is in the office though. Can't relate to the office. Adam is here with me. And I just think that's an interesting line seems to want people back in to the office. It is. I mean, we've heard it in a number of places, haven't we? I mean, I was always told not to use that word, that S word. It's not very kind. Thank you very much. Thanks to the anger and for bringing us the latest on the newspapers. Well, let's turn back to what's happening on markets today. It appears an important market dynamic may have been broken bad economic news is now bad for risk assets, at least that's how markets were trading yesterday's poor retail sales data from the U.S. falling by more than expected 1.1% in December. Let's bring in our markets reporter Valerie titel for more on this story. Valerie, what happened then with the market reaction to this data? Yeah, it picked up steam definitely after the retail sales data yesterday around one 30 London time. They fell more than expected, contracting for a second month in a row and it fell the most in a year, but most importantly, this is the last big data print before we get the February fed decision on February 1st. And so far, a lot of the growth survey data, even the services, PMI, the manufacturing PMI, they're all pointing to some sort of softening in the U.S. economy and that really fueled the S&P to drop 1.6% yesterday. We also saw sharp rally in ten year treasuries yields dropped to a four month low hitting three spot three 5%. And look, that's versus almost three 90 over X over Christmas time, so it's really come back, it's been quite a sharp rally in treasuries. The one thing I'd say about this is look, we are seeing a lot of weak economic data, but the labor market is still holding up surprisingly well Yeah, so it's interesting the way that the market responded to the data then yesterday, as if that yesterday, luxury last year's rules are all out the window, and now we're focused not on inflation, but on recession risk, and that's good for bonds, bad for stocks. We'll see if that if that loss. Now, how does that data then feed into the fed conversation because we heard from boulard from mester we heard from harker? We've heard from a number of voices, haven't we, at the fed, but to your point, Valerie, this is week data, but it's not maybe the weekday to they're looking for, how does it all factor together? Yeah, so yesterday we heard from two of the most closely followed hawks that's bullard and mister and they repeated the same lines as we heard before saying, we want to go above 5%. We're not quite there yet in terms of being in restrictive enough territory when it comes to the fed fund rates. And perhaps their comments are carrying a bit more weight now that we're seeing this poor economic data. Markets are hoping for some sort of concession or some sort of acknowledgment from fed members that the slowdown is being recognized and maybe slightly concerning. But so far, we're not seeing any of that language, but no, those were the two most prominent hawks, I'd say. So they're probably unlikely to give that kind of concession the market wants. But Anna, we hear from the two most prominent doves this later today are this evening brainerd and Williams. It would probably be coming from them any sort of acknowledgment that the slowdown is being recognized, it would probably come from these two dove speaking tonight, so I'm going to be listening very closely to those to the Q&A after those events. Barry, what could spur a stocks and bonds correlation to return than? The stocks and bond prices falling with something that we saw for 2022, but is there a chance I could come back? Yeah, I mean, I think the catalyst for that would be if we get a fed maybe later in Q one who really tells us that they're determined to see inflation on a two handle and won't be happy with something in a three to four area. That tells me that they are really determined to create some sort of slack in the labor market. And in that case, we might see the terminal rate shift shift markedly higher. So right now it's around 5%. If it then shifts higher to 5 and a quarter, 5 and a half, perhaps you'd see bonds having losses alongside stocks. But even that argument, I still see some rooms for bonds to rally because if we keep getting this economic data, which is pointing to some downside risk or some possible risk of a hard landing, you can see ten year bonds farther at the curve rally. So we probably get this inversion still happening in the bond curve. Loss is more in the front end alongside equity market losses. And just briefly Valerie, what is the latest thinking on whether we can achieve a soft landing because a lot of this bond buying is all in the assumption of some sort of downturn, but how soft or hard? Well, look, I think the hopeful thing is and I hope that some of the fed members acknowledge this tonight are
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Disrupted around the capital. The UK economy expanded in October as businesses recovered output lost following the death of the queen. GDP rose by half a percent from September, which included an extra public holiday for the monarch's funeral, the Chancellor Jeremy hunt says the public should ready themselves for more economic pain in the short term. These figures confirm that this is a very challenging economic situation here and across the world. And it will get worse before it gets better. But we have a plan that will more than half inflation over the next year. And if we stay the course, we can get back to the strong economic growth that we need. The Chancellor's assessment was rejected by his opposite number, Rachel Reeves, though, she says the figures underline the failure of the conservative government to grow the economy. COVID is rapidly spreading through Chinese households and offices after the country's pandemic rules were dramatically eased last week, despite pleas from state media and health experts for people to self medicate and recover at home, many citizens are flocking to hospitals. Mark Matthews head of Asia research at Julius Baer says there are many things we still don't know about the rapid policy shift. They could rejoin the world and have a very rough experience with their second really big wave of COVID, but who knows what's going on in the inner sanctums of the Politburo and I think we've found out the hard way that speculating on that is tough. Mark Matthews spoke to Bloomberg as anecdotal evidence suggested the caseload and Chinese hospitals as many times the government's official tally and a reading our colleagues reporting from China this morning lines and a lot of cases people were waiting to get tests or to try and get medication. It does seem like the situation has changed. And a lot of questions around how much you can rely on the data around how many cases there are because of course if you test less, you find less as we all know very well. And so then we look to hospitals. We look to see whether there are signs of hospital infrastructure being overstretched our colleague Rebecca Jung Wilkins pointing out that if things are difficult in Beijing and Shanghai, then they will be very difficult elsewhere where provision of hospital infrastructure
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Dollar trading at one O 5 18 one 22 O 8 against the pound. Looking ahead towards European trading session later, you're a stock 50 futures are flat now. That's index or your stock 600 rather has had four days of losses of interest to see whether or not we're making a 5th day in a row, Wall Street future is flat to the upside S&P minis are a tenth of 1% higher now features a tenth of 1% higher as well. Of course rather concerns over the state of the global economy feeding into that as well. Oil prices also stronger this morning brand crews at 1.4% at $78 and 26 cents. That tibia and Brigadier business flash back to you Caroline. Thank you so much for that now and let's talk a bit about what's happening here in the UK labor will today launch an assault on the ruling Conservative Party's claim to be the natural party of business. They will present a growth plan focused on the industries of the future and it's going to be led by a former a Tory minister journey now for more is our UK correspondent Lizzie burden. Lucy great to have you with us. What are we expecting then from this business conference by the Labor Party that takes place today? Yeah, good morning, Caroline. Well, I should say when I was at the CBI's conference, I asked the prime minister Rishi sunak weather. His party can still claim to be the natural party of business after all the disruption of Liz trus mini budget, but he said unequivocally. Now labor is going to give its answer to that question and it's expected to be a plan to grow the economy, post Brexit that focuses on startups. As you say, it's led by a former tour victory minister just to result in the wounds. Lord Jim O'Neill, and this conference in canary wharf is going to bring together 350 business leaders, the likes of the CEOs of aviva, SSE, HSBC, and essentially it's the shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves version of the prawn cocktail offensive, which I'm sure you'll remember was Gordon Brown's way when he was Chancellor of charming, executives. So what do we know then about the plans that are going to be announced today? So it's called the startup scale up review. The point is to bring together institutions and venture capital firms to close the 16 billion pound investment gap. But of course, the government is also announcing a raft of city deregulation tomorrow, which it says is its way of capitalising on Britain's post Brexit freedoms. And the government is also announcing tougher action on the unions because the strikes are holding back growth of course, and it's expected to ban ambulance workers and paramedics from striking. So the question for labor really is, what's it going to offer on both of those points? Strikes and the city. Unfortunately, we'll be speaking to labor's shadow chief secretary to the treasury pat mcfadden in about 20 minutes on Bloomberg TV. Yeah, I think that will be really interesting. At a time when the outlet for the economy is really pretty difficult and we were talking about the recruitment and employment confederation survey of businesses slow down in hiring the long-term concerns around the size of the labor force about post Brexit Britain. I mean, even if labor were to win the next general election, she is tired, it's going to be a very difficult time. A very bleak inheritance, indeed, all the forecasts from the Bank of England, the office for budget responsibility, the OECD, the CBI, all the acronyms pointing to recession along one. And so it's up to whoever is in charge to limit how deep that recession will be. But the government has actually toned down its language about city deregulation, which was supposed to be one of the ways to grow the economy. It had been pitched as Big Bang two, so trying to replicate the Big Bang, of course, under Margaret Thatcher, but we hear that the city minister Andrew Griffith is actually going to move away from that sort of language tomorrow in recognition that the scope for speedy change is really limited. So the sorts of measures that were expecting include a repeal of this cap on bankers bonuses, which of course is a legal and HR minefield, adjustments to the ring fencing regime, which might not go as far as something hope. And lots of other corporate governance reforms, but ultimately Caroline, it's a far cry from the reforms that we were hearing about when Les trust was prime minister. Okay, so rowing back then on the language around deregulation, we'll see what the Labor Party comes up with today. Our UK correspondent Lizzie Burton, thank you so much for being with us. Well, let's talk more about the economic outlook for the UK's we're hearing there from Lizzie, things looking bleak on many fronts. At least 705 companies filed for insolvency in the week ending the 2nd of December. That was an increase of just over 8% from a year earlier according to noses filed to the gazette, the CBI, the biggest business lobby group in the UK has warned of another last decade of growth without government action joining us now as Julie Palmer partner at bagby's trainer, the business recovery and advisory group, Judy, thanks for being with us on Bloomberg radio. What is the picture for insolvencies? How many companies do you expect to fail next year? It's very difficult to give exact predictions. I think what we expect to see, though, is there is going to be a market increase in terms of the number of businesses failing. Some of the early pandemic statistics were actually really alarming that we're talking about maybe as many as 800,000 companies failing on the back of the pandemic. Obviously, we've stemmed up tied by all of the support measures, but we're now seeing the effect of some of those support measures, the money printing that went on in terms of soaring inflation, and that adding to what looks like a very bleak outlook for the economy at the moment. And we already begin to see that in terms of increased inquiries increased failures. I think probably it will be a gentle incline increase that begins to accelerate rather than falling for UK businesses right now. Is it a lack of confidence, the CBI pointed to that? Is it the rapid increase in interest rates in borrowing costs? Is it sort of post Brexit issues? What do you think of the big challenges now for UK businesses that are pushing insolvencies? You've mentioned three of those, there are some other factors as well, obviously. Inflation we're waiting to see if when that can be brought under control of the national really harming consumer confidence at the moment. We've had the shock of the energy price increases which I think people are really sort of beginning to reel from at the moment and is creating a real issue for businesses. We have that really unusual economy as well with everything being so difficult. There's been real wage pressure on the back of a skill shortage everywhere I think that might begin to use a little bit because I think unemployment figures will begin to rise and that will soften the skills shortage that we're seeing across pretty much all sectors at the moment. So this sort of 6 or 7 sort of factors going around in the melting pot at the moment and there just doesn't seem to be an awful lot of good news on horizon. It's just coming up to 7 30 here in the City of London. You're listening to Bloomberg daybreak, Europe. We're speaking to Julie Palmer, who's a partner at beg beast trainer, the business recovery and advisory group. We're discussing the prospect of what the outlook is for UK companies next year. Julia I'm interested to hear
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"12 years. People simply can't cope, you know, we've got kids going to school with holes in their shoes. People doing key jobs, important key jobs as we saw during the pandemic that can't afford to raise their families. So of course, this is the last resort, but I can tell you that the workers I've spoken to have a quiet determination that they are not to pay the price this time. Okay, Francis, this was a question I put to Rachel Reeves. So maybe I can get your views on it. Clearly, one way to get growth in this and this economy and to approve growth prospects would be to rejoin the customs union and a single market. Would you be lobbying? Will you be prepared to lobby the Labor Party to change their views on Brexit? Well, the country took a decision, as you know, that you see campaign. But polls have changed. France's polls have changed. The data is there. The people are changing. Joining the single currency, joining the single market and the customs unit would be a clear benefit to this economy and your members. Well, what we certainly need is a first big step is a much better and closer deal with the EU. And certainly, from a TSC perspective, what we're interested in is how do we protect jobs? How do we protect public services? How do we protect economic growth for the future? The EU is our single biggest trading partner. And of course, we had a big interest because we've seen this government saying it's going to attack works rights, attack unions, ability to organize collectively and to take strike action. Writes that were protected in the EU in a protected internationally, we are very keen to uphold. So of course it makes sense to get a much best closer deal with the trading partner that's geographically closest to us and our most important one. I think the government has made huge mistakes on that front playing with fire over the Northern Ireland, you know, it's time to stop that nonsense and get decent deal. Okay, Francis, thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate you coming on Bloomberg radio. Very important voice to hear from Francis o'grady, the general secretary of the British trades union Congress. I mean, I think this line with household incomes dropping the way that they are, the conservatives crash the economy is that who voters are going to blame. That's going to be key. Yeah, absolutely. And to what extent you arguably, this is a Chancellor who's taken a lot of the play and a lot of the policies from the Labor Party to what extent does that disarm the labor parties we lead up to that election in two years and will it help the conservatives close the gap we'll see as we face up to this recession and further pain, of course, across these households. Okay, coming up next, we'll be talking about the markets, gimmer, felicis, who is investment at strasse that pgim will be joining us live here on Bloomberg radio. This is Bloomberg. Markets, headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day. The blooper business our path quick take. This is a Bloomberg business flash. 9 46
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Now the paper review on Bluebird daybreak Europe. The news you need to know from today's papers. Let's get to today's papers then James Walcott joins us with a briefing James walk us through some of the reactions yesterday's budget. I mean, as David's point out, it's a very bleak outlook and a lot of the papers agree with him to eat some of the headlines because they are stark Anna. You've never had it so bad. Meters on tax, they're from bad to worse, is what The Guardian says about that massive drop in living standards. And that's picked up by the eye as well, who call it the UK's lost decades, FT lead on years of pain, the times have years of taxpayer head with this amazing photo of Jeremy hunter as school yesterday because obviously he said to be pro education pro growth, but some of the school kids faces might say they disagree for their pro education or not. It's all quite grim. The daily mail have a picture of Jeremy hunt soaked by The Rain saying soak the strivers, this idea of the rich being overtaxed in their view and that they have Sarah vine their columnist says there was me thinking we've voted in the conservatives, so it's all quite negative. What about the FT's take on this? So they're quite mixed even in that they, like I said, years of pain is what they say, but they have some of the most scathing messages because they say that sort of things like the apprenticeship levy weren't mentioned. The idea of cutting the generosity of R&D is an odd way to boost this sort of idea generation. So they kind of say that this budget is better than the classic quantum budget improves stability improves credibility, but in terms of taking serious decisions about the future of the UK economy, they argue that it doesn't make difficult decisions, which is something that is echoed in the telegraph by David Frost. He writes that the concerned mind likes talking tough while avoiding hard choices. There's a lot of talk about the back loading of those difficult decisions to after when an election would be. How is this budget get seen as playing into the next election then just briefly, according to the times? I mean, that is the big question. And John Kurt is the famous pollster has said Rachel Reeves has set the tone. The shadow Chancellor, when she said, in response to Jeremy hunt, when the public asked themselves how they feel after what you've said, are they better off after 12 years of conservative government. And John has, if that is the question, the next election is fought on and there's every indication it will be, the conservatives are in for a drubbing. Okay, James wilcock, thank you very much for that review of the paper is coming up next we'll be hearing from the shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaking to Bloomberg for her reaction to the autumn statement as we look ahead of a very grim economic outlook for the UK. Stay with us for that, this is Bloomberg. The Alzheimer's association and the ad council present the story of Tom and Levi. Tom is the smartest man I know. He's been a professor at two major universities been a teacher for over 40 years. One day, he told me that he was having problems in his classes. I think one of the students had asked the question and he didn't remember the answer. I also noticed that he was letting his class out earlier than they were supposed to let out. And he was telling them that he was doing it as a favor to them. But I think in reality he just wanted to give out of there. I was really starting to worry 'cause I saw something was wrong. Levi and I talked about how it would change our lives. But he was there beside me, and my love
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"List of popular MPs, if any were popular at all, frankly, Liz Charles quasi quoting, how are they playing out with the public versus Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves? Yes, so you're right. I mean, as I mentioned, like Lee's trust when he's first came in, she actually had quite a high level of people on the fence about her, but now we're seeing around about half of the public thinking that she and quasi quantifying are doing a bad job. For loose trust, that's not that different to Boris Johnson when he was getting in his last few months for quasi quantang. That's worse than what she soon act was getting when he was a Chancellor. For Keir Starmer, he has taken away a lot of the negatives. He is slightly head on best prime minister that was something that never happened for Jeremy Corbyn or Ed Miliband. And the proportion of people who think he's now likely to be the next prime minister is growing. So he did have a good conference, overall his ratings are still sort of maybe lukewarm, they're not that much better than an average for an opposition leader, you know, they're not at the levels that say Tony Blair or David Cameron got when they went on to win. So there are still some doubts about labor. And just broadly, how are voters feeling right now? How is the British public feeling? We know that consumer confidence this year has been incredibly weak. You have a cost of living crisis, energy prices have gone up just this past weekend they went. Up even with the governments assistance, how do people feel about their job, their finances? So yes, you're absolutely right. Most people think the country is heading in the wrong direction around about 7 in ten think the economy is going to get worse. We're getting some of the lowest figures we've ever seen over decades in terms of economic confidence. So yes, there is a lot of worrying about that. Again, particularly around things like the cost of living, bills, rents, interest rates, those types of things. Okay. Emily, returning to you then, what happens if Liz trusts and quasi quark at ten effectively spend the next 18 months ahead of a general election? As you say, being pushed around by the party can, what does this mean for the conservative brand? But also does it mean for the UK and for kind of investors into the UK? That's a very tricky issue. Yeah, it's a terrible look. They wanted to start strong, which is why they had a quite audacious mini budget. They misjudged it. They didn't lay the ground for it as they trusted herself. And now, yeah, they look to be pushed around by their own party for a long time to come. I think they're just pinning their hopes on inflation going down and economic growth growing slowly. And by the time the next election rolls around, which is likely to be spring 24, that things will be feel slightly better and they can say all that down to what we did. But you know, it's a massive gamble and I think even the ministers themselves would say, you know, we're just kind of pinning our hopes on that happening. Yeah, very difficult position for them at the moment. It certainly is, we've got the local elections in May 2023, also a key barometer for the government too. Emily, thanks so much for being with us. That is Bloomberg's UK government reporter Emily ashen, who's here with me. At the conference in Birmingham has been over the past few days and Gideon skinner, thank you so much, lovely to see you in person head of politics research at ipsos, so joining us in Birmingham. Back to you, we've got we've had a great set of interviews this morning, Mel stride, Anthony Brown, MP, ipsos there, and whole host of our Bloomberg reporters and editors on the ground, but it's a very, very sticky wicket for the conservatives. Yeah, certainly isn't really interesting to hear the insights from your guests they are on where the conservatives go from here. Caroline and Birmingham thank you more from you later on
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Yet, so I'm still making my mind up. But I was impressed I have to tell you the candidates all I thought performed pretty well. Some performed very, very well Others just before very well. That was former Conservative Party leader in Duncan Smith there. So far candidates have focused largely on tax cuts, but the institute for fiscal studies, the resolution foundation and the CBI business group, well, they've all been critical of this later today, shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves will accuse candidates of taking quote a flamethrower to their own fiscal rules, labor claims the tax cutting plans would add 24 billion pounds to the UK's annual budget deficit. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy will grow at a slower rate than previously predicted, according to the International Monetary Fund, the IMF now forecasts that the world's biggest economy will grow 2.3% more than half a percentage point down on its previous estimate last month. Later today we'll see just how fast that prices are rising in America when June CPI data is released, pubic Charlie pellet has the details. Economists say inflation continued to heat up in June hitting a pandemic peak, but will keep the Federal Reserve geared for another big hike later this month. The CPI probably rose 8.8% from a year earlier, marking the largest jump since 1981, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, the May reading of 8.6% year over year was the largest in 40 years. In New York, Charlie palette Bloomberg daybreak Europe. Well, the challenging economic environment is increasingly also being reflected in the price of crude oil extended losses on Tuesday below a $100 a bow on escalating fears about an economic slowdown rippling through markets. Right now there were at 1.1% for breakthrough future, so we trade just the tart tad over a $100 about 96 92 for WTI. Okay, in corporate news, a Twitter has formally sued Elon Musk in a Delaware court over his abandoned $44 billion takeover bid, lawyers accused the billionaire of having buyers remorse. And should be forced and say he should be forced to honor his agreement, Musk abandoned the deal, citing concerns about the number of fake accounts and Bloomberg's Ed ludlow says Musk is going to have to prove this. What Elon Musk is going to have to prove in court is that the way Twitter acted, the information that it either did or did not share had material, adverse effect on the deal. In other words, they need to prove that it somehow altered the value of the deal that it punched a hole in the deal. But you look at past precedent, Elon Musk is going to have a really hard time doing that. The lawsuit says Twitter bent over backwards to provide mass with information and legal experts have debated whether the conflict over spam bots is enough to allow Musk to walk away from the deal. Meanwhile, Britain's largest airport he throw is telling allies to stop selling seats during the peak summer season as it attempts to control ongoing travel chaos, but in both Laura Wright has the details. Heathrow is limiting the daily number of departing passengers to 100,000 for two months while it replenishes its workforce in a statement the CEO John Holland case says carrying out key functions at the airport remains challenging after a mass exodus of workers during the pandemic. The forecast shows that around 104,000 people are looking to depart from the airport daily. The extra 4000 is the sticking point, the airport feels this is putting too much demand on staff and is asking airlines to scrap these flights in London and Laura Wright, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. Well, despite chaotic scenes at Heathrow, new newly released data from the travel website hopper has actually found that the airport is doing better than most in Europe, it rangs 15 for the worst delays this month, Brussels airport apparently topping that chart. Okay, back to the macro story then, and one 30 UK time today, the U.S. releases CPI data for June, with a median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of economists expecting prices to rise 8.8% year over year, which would be the highest in 41 years. Joining us to dig into what the numbers could tell us and the part that supply side factors are playing is Bloomberg's trades are Brendan Murray, Brendan. How much of this inflation then are expected to come through today is supply versus demand at this point. Well, some of the estimates that we've seen show that it's about 50 50, the breakdown between supply side, inflammation, area effects and demand side. So the good news is we're seeing some easing of the pressures on the supply side, shipping rates are coming down, other freight costs are coming down somewhat. They're still very high historically, but we're seeing something easy on the supply chain side of things. Whether that's temporary or not, we don't know, but it's a good time nonetheless. Is that a soft landing then for the U.S. economy, still at all possible? It depends on who you ask, but some economists will tell you there is still a possibility of that, although it's dwindling, it's a very fine balance that the fed has to have to have to strike between raising rates and tamping down this inflation and preventing the economy from cratering into an economy into a recession. So it's too close to call right now, but I know Bloomberg economics forecasts show an increasing chance of a recession either later this year or sometime by the middle of next year. And Brendan, when the IMF cut their forecast for U.S. GDP growth to 2.3%, they also warned that inflation poses quite systemic risks to the country in the global economy. What do they mean by systemic risks I think they mean that these costs have a possibility of just remaining high and not and creating sort of longer term or as they say systemic problems for the economy as a whole rather than the temporary hikes in prices that we've seen. So systemic risks, those could mean anything from affecting consumer behavior over the long term or. Hurting financial markets as we've seen stocks and bonds react rather than negatively in recent days to the chances of a reception. So just a longer term, a longer term damage, I think is what the IMS means. Brendan, thank you so much for being
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm not going to give you exactly what I think because of course I haven't declared yet, so I'm still making my mind up. But I was impressed I have to tell you the candidates all I thought performed pretty well. Some performed very, very well. Others just performed very well. That was former Conservative Party leader Ian Duncan Smith, so far the candidates are focused largely on tax cuts, but the institute for fiscal studies, the resolution foundation and the CBI business group have all been critical of this later today shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves will accuse candidates of taking a quote flamethrower to their own fiscal rules, labor claims the tax cutting plans would add 24 billion pounds to the UK's annual budget deficit. The U.S. economy will grow at a slower rate than previously predicted, according to the International Monetary Fund, the IMF now forecasts that the world's biggest economy will grow by 2.3%, that's more than a half a point down on its previous estimate, which came just a month ago. Later today, we will see just how fast prices are rising in the U.S. when June CPI data is released, Bloomberg's Charlie pellet has the details. Economists say inflation continued to heat up in June hitting a pandemic peak, that will keep the Federal Reserve geared for another big hike later this month. The CPI probably rose 8.8% from a year earlier, marking the largest jump since 1981, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The May reading of 8.6% year over year was the largest in 40 years. In New York, Charlie palette Bloomberg daybreak Europe. The challenging economic environment is increasingly being reflected in the price of crude oil extended losses on Tuesday below $100 a barrel, as escalating fears about an economic slowdown rippled through global markets, a Brent just popping up above a hundred this morning, 100 spot 5 7 is where we trade on the Brent price. In top corporate news Twitter has formally sued Elon Musk in a Delaware court over his abandoned $44 billion takeover bid. Lawyers accused the billionaire of having buyers remorse and said he should be forced to honor his agreement, Musk abandoned the deal citing concerns about the number of fake accounts Bloomberg's ad ludlow says mosque is going to have to prove this. What Elon Musk is going to have to prove in court is that the way Twitter acted, the information that it either did or did not share had material, adverse effect on the deal. In other words, they need to prove that it somehow altered the value of the deal that it punched a hole in the deal. But you look at past precedent, Elon Musk is going to have a really hard time doing that. The lawsuit says Twitter, bent over backwards to provide Musk with information and legal experts have debated whether the conflict over spam bots is enough to allow Musk to walk away from the deal. Britain's largest airport Heathrow is telling airlines to stop selling seats during the peak summer season, as it attempts to control ongoing travel chaos, Bloomberg's law of right has the details. Heathrow is limiting the daily number of departing passengers to 100,000 for two months while it replenishes its workforce in a statement, the CEO John Holland case says carrying out key functions at the airport remains challenging after a mass exodus of workers during the pandemic. The forecast shows that around 104,000 people are looking to depart from the airport daily. The extra 4000 is the sticking point, the airport feels this is putting too much demand on staff and is asking airlines to scrap these flights in London and Laura Wright, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. Despite chaotic scenes at Heathrow, newly released data from travel website hopper, has found the airport is doing better than most in Europe it ranks 15th for worst delays this month with Brussels airport topping the chart. Those are our top stories now it's time for the London rush where you pick out some highlights from UK businesses making announcements in London joining us as Bloomberg's breaking news out of Charles cape, morning to you Charles. You're starting with BT Group, which is replacing some contracted workers at the full-time staff. Yeah, exactly, they're going to hire about 2800 new staff and about a thousand thousand of those will be in the UK about 1800 will be in India. And yeah, as you said, they're going to be replacing contracted workers who were previously hired to do various jobs in their digital armies. It's specifically hiring for their digital arm. But they will be full-time staff now and it will take the internal headcount of that arm up to 6300 by 2024, but interestingly there will be no impact on BET's guidance because the costs of hiring all these new people will be offset by the lower costs of not having to pay a company to contract out this work. And these roles are going to be in all sorts of things, engineering, data design, AI, and so it seems like quite an interesting move to save costs for BT. Yeah, I mean, good news on job creation, of course. But difficult in a tight labor market, perhaps we'll see how they manage. Something else that could impact on BT, the UK's competition and markets authority, investigating suspected breaches of competition law in a very specific field. What was the latest? Yeah, exactly. It's in sports broadcasting and I want to be very careful about this. So I'm going to read out exactly what they said because they were quite vague about it. And we aren't exactly sure what it is, but it's the purchase of freelance services that support the production and broadcasting of sports content in the UK. Now they didn't say which sport it was and they didn't necessarily provide further details. But what they did say is that they are investigating suspected breaches of competition law by at least BT Group, ITV and sky UK limited, as well as IMG media limited. So these companies are all potentially or they're under investigation by the UK's markets regulator. It's certainly something we're going to keep an eye on because I expect that could become quite a big story. Okay, an interesting one. And a quick word on pubs. Exactly. Well, it was a fascinating statement there from JD weatherspoon's now they expect the losses for the year to be higher than expected. Now that's as a result of higher spending on things like staffing costs, which of course have risen significantly, but also repairs and marketing coming out of that lockdown period where they may have had to moth ball a lot of their pubs. One of the most interesting comments actually is that they said the pent up demand which everybody expected in pubs after lockdown. I remember during the lockdown we were basically gauging how loose the restrictions are by what we could do in pubs. Could we drink outside? Could we have food? Do we have to have a scotch egg? Yes. Absolutely. And then there was the whole are you inside or outside thing, you know, intentions, shivering in December trying to have a trying to have a point. But they said that pent up demand hasn't necessarily materialized. The growth the recovery, the sales of draft, L's loggers insiders are 8% below 2019 levels, and that's a really significant chunk of their revenue, despite everything else spirits, cocktails, slot machines, food, hotels. They are up, but it's but it's just their ales, the loggers and the ciders that are dragging down JG weatherspoon. It's interesting about working my way to that list deciding which one of the ones that I'm spending more money on. And I think that I'm pretty much in line with those trends. I probably just that people want things with ice in them, don't they? Right now. So I think so I was wondering whether maybe it's a health thing, maybe people are moving towards a gin and tonic as opposed to her. Is that a good question? If it has a slice of lime in, I think, I think maybe we can get away with it. Okay, where this food shares are down 5.4% this morning in trading. That's the London rush with Charles cape. Thank you very much for more on these stories. You can read the London rush on Bloomberg dot com and on the terminal as well. Okay, let's get more now on one of our top stories. London's Heathrow is imposing a two month cap on daily passenger traffic to contain flight chaos. It's a dramatic response by
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Just not the conservative way Never mind how angry energy bosses are about all of this Yeah absolutely and the opposition of course talking about the government dithering dithering delay This is their kind of characterization isn't it of the government so you have Rachel Reeves the shadow Chancellor talking about that yesterday Yeah So a bit of a raid then on the oil and gas firms but where does the rest of the money come There's quite a big gap isn't there Borrowing in a word The package is going to drive government borrowing back above a 100 billion pounds this year and this is at a time when growth is weaker than expected so that's robbing soon I could have tax receipts It's also at a time of higher inflation higher interest rates adding billions of pounds to the cost of debt servicing so it's a nightmare really for the public finances But as I say growth would have been even weaker without it Yeah okay Lizzie interesting that we're looking at some of the other reactions to that announcement of the windfall tax from other energy companies as a story on the terminal takes in not only we were talking about BP but we've also got a statement from Shell and quest as well which produces more than 90% of its oil and gas in the UK saying it was disappointed with the implementation mechanics of the new levy so as you can imagine the industry in a bit of I suppose trying to react to all of that Yeah and also of course this choice quote from a conservative MP who's been on Bloomberg Westminster with us in the past Richard drax saying that the Chancellor is throwing red meat to the socialists I mean that's quite a kind of rhetorical phrase to use That raising taxes on business and telling them where to invest is not the way to do things Yes but when you see the opposition Labor Party and saying that the worst criticism is we'd have done it but we'd have done it more Yeah Okay And they weren't alone as well I mean it wasn't just labor to the S&P was also supporting this as well and of course a lot of that oil and gas businesses are in their own backyard Yeah I mean having said that I do think that there has been kind of a change quite a seismic change in terms of how the oil and gas companies have responded this time around And they were trying to explain that there would be there would be investment in the UK So they tried to get ahead of the story You're smiling Lizzie I'm smiling because people in the government are blaming the BP CEO Bernard Looney for previously saying that a windfall tax wouldn't affect BP's investment plans now BP says it'll look again at its plans in the UK so make your mind up Well and also look again is not a decision on withdrawing the money yet Anyway there's still a long way for this to run isn't there And you'll continue to follow it for us So really appreciate you coming on Bloomberg radio this morning That's our UK economy reporter Lizzie burden Yeah we're going to be talking a lot more about that Of course over the coming days with Bloomberg Westminster as well Of course as we speak to MPs every day here at midday on Bloomberg radio to get the latest political reaction to that too Coming up we'll be getting into the latest market moves we're about 20 minutes away from the start of trading here in Europe Euro stocks.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Politics The shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves promised 28 billion pounds a year to tackle climate change if the Labor Party is elected to power promising to be the first green Chancellor Joining us now is professor Kevin Haines director of sustainable capital which issues green ESG bonds Kevin Good morning to you So pledges from the Labor Party around green investment What did you make of them I think it's very welcome I think it's essential that government steps up It works walk rather than just talking the talk And I think the kind of sums that we're talking about can make a very substantial difference This is a significantly larger pledge per year than the government is spending at the moment in terms of green technology I suppose you see it as problematic on some fronts though Yes I mean it's a party conference speech So it's only going to be relatively simple in terms of the messaging out I think there is a sense in which they've kind of picked them easy target I think there needs to be we need a short term action We also need medium and longer term actions and there's nothing in this at the moment that shows me that government is thinking about the longer term solutions that we need to the climate crisis and the kinds of crises either And if you've got a pot of money set aside you can spend it on all sorts of things and I guess the verdict on whether they see as money well spent will depend on whether this goes on what battery EV gigafactories the hydrogen industry offshore wind cycle paths planting trees home insulation where should the priority be That's difficult because they're all priority areas aren't they I mean I think that we get ESG the wrong way around I think it should be GES or GSE because we need we need governments to take action in the way that the labor potential government is planning on investing in green projects But we also need a much broader sense of governance We need them to be looking at partnerships between companies and universities We need them not just to be looking at a big corporations But at the SMEs that make up the majority of our economy we need a much broader governance strategy to see us through the current and impending pricing How do you think that the Johnson conservative government has done then Because the key criticism there I mean the head of the cop 26 climate change summit that is being hosted here of course is that there hasn't been enough of a concrete plan for how to reach the climate goals that the UK has even if there were the money Yeah I mean certainly talking a very strong talk There are a few examples where their actions don't match their words But I think the British government had an ambition to be internationally leading on some of these sorts of issues And I think it's difficult to chart a course when we don't know what that cost necessarily would involve But this is what we need government for Governments can't do this on their own They need to be fostering partnerships There's nothing in what the conservatives are doing or what labor's proposing that would create the kind of partnerships across public private sectors with universities and others to make some of these things happen That's about the international partnerships that just transitions that we need globally if we're going to make a difference here Kevin thank you so much for being with us That's professor Kevin Haines who's director of sustainable capital which issues green and ESG.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"rachel reeves" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Going to be a long election night That's for sure But it's also certain that many citizens have voted for the SPD because they want a change of government because they want the name of the next Chancellor to be Olaf sought But he still faces months of negotiation and uncertainty before he can make that a reality and la Chet insist that he'll also try to form a coalition Here in the UK a labor government would immediately cut business rates before eventually phasing them out completely if it does get into power The shadow Chancellor thinks of tax system is stacked against high street firms Rachel Reeves is giving her speech to the party's annual conference in Brighton later today And insulate Britain protesters have returned to the M 25 despite a high court injunction meaning they could be jailed or fined 52 people were involved in the action at a roundabout leading to Heathrow Airport in West London A spokesperson says the groups going nowhere and is calling for emergency action to tackle climate change Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries and Leanne guerins this is Bloomberg Caroline Thank you so much Liang garands with the world news coming up next top Bloomberg daybreak Europe Anna Edwards and myself are going to speak to Eric Nielsen who is group chief economist at UniCredit This as we see risk on markets this morning your stock 600 are by three tenths of 1%.
The Red Box Politics Podcast
"rachel reeves" Discussed on The Red Box Politics Podcast
"Now when the race looked to be between four candidates at the full being howard. Becker currently suspended from the labor party for tweeting. A pretty tell should be deported. Best known as a very aggressive tweeter united in house lawyer. Very close to that mcklusky. Basti is chosen successor. He has stayed in loathed by the writing center of the labor party and he dropped down because they didn't have as much support on his thrown his lot. In with steve turner. Now when how. Becky was in the race and gerald coin. Didn't look like he was going to get on the ballot people in case. Tom would say well. We can work with steve turn. He's going again a good industrial pedigree. He was again looking on. He was trying to split the difference. They much more measured but because there was a big thing on the left. There's three left. Candidates all enter talks because they were. They were slipping vote and let gerald coin. Steve tennis come to see change from a. I'm going to stand up for left wing values. But i'm also not going to be You know he's not gonna be megaphone. Diplomacy care not can talk in private. Now he's adopted wholesale basically how beck. It's more let's say colorful ideas including the the most one of which you know. I hate to say this to on times radio. But if i steve. China wins how that on your hands you not. Tv with i crashing stunned the twenty four hour rolling news operation in every region the union organizing. So have you thought. Gb news was something just finally case. Tom relationship with the unions. It was discussed the study with tim battle. As well particularly admit obama's really how involved with the toys really going on about and being in the pocket the unions and hope to the unions. Tim there have been a slight shift actually in public attitudes tools unions and maybe it wasn't quite the pejorative have been before. The war is kissed on his relationship with him because ultimately he needs to get money from some ways coming in from lots of the unions. Let's say look. We're not going to get involved in politics anymore. We're going to go. And so our members that leaves a financial hole but does it fleet up to sort of do more of what he wants to do. Well the question is who is kissed. The kissed on the leadership contender indication. Barrister was very closely was effectively. Not quite trading embarrassed. He was always interested in the right. Solve people to organize in their workplaces. The right of unions against big employers against the police etcetera etcetera. But now obviously he's surrounded by now he's boutrous by the function of the labor party. Aida blairite fashion labor party. Who would really like didn't did he. Love nothing more than to rip the union lincoln. Start again despite the name of the party being the labor party so it's very very tricky but i think actually as you say that's not soaring in public us shoes tools. The unions is k. And if you look at the stuff i mean. I don't blame people for not passing. The small prints of a rachel reeves is You know latches That she that she gives off a weekend. Which i do. That's what i'm handful. And rachel considered by many to be on the rise of the labor party now making very positive. Noises about unionized workforce So whereas. I don't think case. Tom vibe is gonna. He's going to be at the door mind gala old. I'm sure he might be He's not kind of unions by do thing we're gonna we're gonna hey qantas law subtly of the sort of general joining type. Not you know not they mine has gone is gonna banners but unions will be central to labor's policy over. I think probably go. Thanks much much all that times. Wet box of course. You can get michigan..
Today
Hamas Paying Protesters to Charge Gaza Border, Israel Alledges
"There were fewer than two hundred there's also been a worrying rise in violent crime linked directly to drugs gangs who often use teenagers as couriers the government says tackling county lines is a priority and has denied accusations that drastic cuts to youth services a partly to blame for the problem to parliamentary committees after damning verdict on the conduct of senior executive santa fail construction giant caribbean accusing them of presiding over rotten corporate culture where can pensions and business select committee of the board members were busy stuffing their mouths with gold before the collapse of the company in january the chair of the business committee rachel reeves told us mp's believed the uk's largest accountancy firm should be broken up after chameleons accounts were approved despite its spiralling dance you've got just four accountancy firms providing basically audit functions for pretty much every listed company every single of footsie100 companies ordered by one of the big four so you need reform there and we want the competition markets authority to look at that michael savage chief executive of the institute of chartered accountants in england and wales told us the industry needed to address issues of competition and quality in the market we long some three things into audit firms in the uk quality exists outside the big four and also the expectations of society regulators and politicians of changed we've got to stop hiding behind the fact that the companies acts as we do x an adjusted to do actually what society expects us to do today the israeli prime minister has accused him asset paying palestinians to stage anti israel protests at the border with gaza speaking after more than sixty people were killed near the perimeter fence during two days of violence benjamin netanyahu told us television network that amass was making a deliberate effort to incur civilian casualties a member of the palestinian legislative council said mr netanyahu was the.