18 Burst results for "Quill Intelligence"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The markets for you. Asian shares firmly in the red as the flight to safety across markets following rumbles around the bank SVB in the U.S. yesterday sent bank stocks tumbling and the overall S&P 500 finishing down by 1.9% so today in Asia the MSCI specific index is 2% lower, the hang seng in Hong Kong is now 3% lower tax shares among the lagging sectors in Hong Kong, dang seng tech index down by 4% this morning. You're a stocks 50 futures firmly in the red down 1.7% FTSE 100 futures down by one and a half percent more red on the boards for Wall Street futures two S&P E and E is down by three quarters of 1%. The flip side of that trade is we're seeing yields fall across the treasury curve, the ten year yield ten basis points lower this morning, 3.81%, the two year yield 9 basis points lower at 4.77. The dollar is flat in the Bloomberg dollar spot index, but the yen is four tenths of 1% weaker after corrode has last bank of Japan meeting. Now let's start with the UK, the economy grew by three tenths of 1% in January, month or month, that is a beat on the estimated tenth of 1% growth. Industrial production in January fell 4.3% though, more than the estimate and those are the numbers in terms of the UK in terms of every services sector that rises half of 1% beating the estimate of .3%. The UK managed to avoid a recession last year it does look as if now we're swerving away from that with January, GDP actually growing more than estimates. And some data from Germany, the February final figure for CPI, the harmonized rate 9.3% year on year that is in line with estimates. Let's get to our top stories. Top executives are Silicon Valley bank are urging cam as prominent venture capitalists advised businesses to withdraw their money. Peter Thiel's founders fund and others say companies should now limit their exposure to the startup lender, quill intelligence CEO and chief strategist Danielle de martino booth says markets are worried. The market has now begun asking two questions. Will there be a white knight? And what bank is next? So we've seen the largest move in spreads since last October, and we're seeing small and mid sized banks coming under attack and people are beginning to ask, how many banks are out there with similar levels of losses that they're sitting on that they can not move and the term will to martino booth spoke of their followed a surprise announcement from Silicon Valley bank that it was holding a two and a quarter $1 billion share sale after a significant loss on its portfolio that lender scrambled to prevent a bank run comes as silvergate capital announced plans to wind down operations after last year's crypto industry meltdown. While the S&P 500 financials index saw its worst day since the COVID pandemic meltdown as sentiment on Wall Street soured on the news, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase all slid at least 5%, ironically, many equity investors had piled into financial stocks to ride out the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Nat alliance securities head of international fixed income, Andrew Brenner thinks this move may change the Central Bank's thinking. Now, the question is will this Silicon Valley think have legs? And my answer is, yeah, to a point, but I don't think it's cause for contagion, but people are going to be scared about it. And I think it's going to send a message over the fed's bow. Now, market to watch us like Brenner have one eye on today's U.S. jobs data and another on potential defaults. The UK government suspects that Russians have exploited Britain's company register to launder money from the war in Ukraine. Sources have told Bloomberg that authorities have identified hundreds of sham companies listed under Russian names, they say these firms are trying to exploit the war in Ukraine for financial gain. The British government is in the process of strengthening laws to reform companies house and clamp down on financial crime. Now French president Emmanuel Macron, the British prime minister Rishi sunak will aim to turn the page on years of acrimonious relations later today with more from Paris, his our UK correspondent Lizzie burden. Here in the city of romance, France and Britain will today try to rekindle theirs as UK prime minister Rishi sunak heads to Paris for the first such state visit in 5 years after 7 years of post Brexit attack criminally. On the agenda will be defense, migration, nuclear power, and green subsidies, but above all as Russia looks on, the two sides are determined to present a united front on the war in Ukraine. In Paris, I'm Lizzie burden, Bloomberg, daybreak, Europe. A New York judge has ordered JPMorgan to turn over more rack awards from CEO Jamie Dimon to the U.S. Virgin Islands. The order is related to a lawsuit accusing the bank of facilitating Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking, JPMorgan has denied the Virgin Islands claim that diamond had a role in retaining Epstein as a client. The latest news comes after the U.S. lender sued former executive Jeff staley, whose relationship with Epstein is the focus of the lawsuit. Okay, those are a few of our top stories and foy this morning. I spotted this toy on the blue egg channel. It takes me back a little bit. So graduates in the UK, thanks to TikTok and now becoming aware that they're starting salaries, even if they're very good, are much lower than for their counterparts, perhaps in the United States, which to me doesn't surprise me all that much. The cynic in you, Karen. Well, I mean, what are you doing? But wouldn't it be interesting if things have changed and there had been upgraded shift to alignment of salaries? I mean, I know from my law Friends, shall I say, it was always a thing that the American law firms paid much more and that was the draw to go and work for them, even though the working I suppose environment was different. Yes, that's true. And that is, yes, to some extent the London law firms are having to compete, but I think that there is still a gap. But it's the issue around young people only just sort of realizing this and TikTok making it absolutely clear because of the sort of simplicity of the graphics and the images. Maybe it's new wage transparency, maybe this will provoke a change. I do think that that is really interesting and it just I sighed and I thought it was funny and sweet that young people didn't realize that. And then of course I remembered back to my own, I'm going to make an awful admission. I didn't really understand how much tax affected your first paycheck. I was quite shocked, saddened, disappointed when I realized how much went to the government in my very first paycheck I had not realized. I think my early lessons was that you can actually negotiate on salary, which I never didn't realize on definitely regretted not doing it at the start of my career anyway. Enough financial confessions for now. Let's move on to the story, of course, that markets are focused on today. This banking story that's ripping through markets, fears over the financial health of Silicon Valley banks sending bank stocks tumbling, depositors considering their holdings at the lander favored by startups. We have our investing editor Russell ward with us for more on this story Russell great to have you on the program. Can you
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Radio. So let's start with the market is pretty dramatic hours over in Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley bank shares tumbled 60% yesterday every bank in the S&P 500 financials index slumped on the back of that real concern spreading across the startup world, also the KBW bank index. That is closely watched. That closed 7.7% lower yesterday. The S&P had its worst day in a couple of weeks. Stock futures on the S&P 500 this morning are down 7 tenths of 1% stocks of absolutely slumped across Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific index is down 1.9% this morning. And European stock futures are also down one and a half percent and it's the bond markets that seem largely the beneficiaries of this treasury is extending a big rally yields down 9 basis points now to three 81 you have a stronger dollar, Bitcoin tumbling to 20,000 and Brent down Stephen. Our top stories this morning, top executives at Silicon Valley bank are urging calm as prominent venture capitalists advised businesses to withdraw their money. Peter Thiel's Vander is fund and others say companies should now limit their exposure to the startup lender, quill intelligence CEO and chief trash just Danielle de martino booth says markets are worried. The market has now begun asking two questions. Will there be a white knight? And what bank is next? So we've seen the largest move in spreads since last October. We're seeing small and mid sized banks coming under attack and people are beginning to ask, how many banks are out there with similar levels of losses that they're sitting on that they can not move the terminal to martino booth spoke of their followed a surprise announcement from Silicon Valley bank that it was holding a two and a quarter $1 billion share sale after a significant loss on its portfolio. The lander scrambled to prevent a bank run comes as silvergate capital announced plans to wind down operations after last year's crypto industry meltdown. While the sentiment on Wall Street soured on that news, of course, the S&P 500 financials index saw its worst day since the COVID pandemic meltdown, Bank of America Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase all slid at least 5%. Ironically, many equity investors had piled into financial stocks to ride out the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, threadneedle founder and berry as that today's jobs data could change the picture even more. I think it's completely discombobulated 'cause I think that we're going to see the market just hang in limbo until we see those numbers come out and they will dictate whether we expect a 25 or 50% basis point hike. If we see a very strong labor market set of data come out tomorrow and as a result, the fed's been very clear they're going to be hawkish. I think we're going to see a real creator in equity values going into the last couple of weeks of this quarter. Okay, well, cratering. Now, market watchers like berry have one eye on the data today and another on potential defaults. Here in the UK, the government suspects Russians have exploited Britain's loose company register to launder war money, sources told Bloomberg that law enforcement agencies have identified hundreds of sham companies listed under Russian nationals. They are that the companies are trying to exploit the war in Ukraine for financial gain, the British government is in the process of strengthening laws to reform reform companies house and clamp down on financial crime. French president Emmanuel Macron and the British prime minister, Richard will aim to turn the page on years of acrimonious relations later today with more now from Paris his our UK correspondent Lizzie burden. Here in the city of romance, France and Britain will today try to rekindle theirs as UK prime minister Rishi sunak heads to Paris for the first such state visit in 5 years after 7 years of post Brexit acrimony. On the agenda will be defense, migration, nuclear power, and green subsidies, but to above all as Russia looks on, the two sides are determined to present a united front on the war in Ukraine. In Paris, I'm Lizzie burden, Bloomberg, daybreak, Europe. A New York judge has ordered JPMorgan to turn over more records from CEO Jamie Dimon to the U.S. Virgin Islands. The audio is related to a lawsuit accusing the bank of facilitating Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking JPMorgan has denied the Virgin Islands claim that diamond had a role in retaining Epstein as a client the latest news comes after the U.S. lander sued former executive jazz daily whose relationship with Epstein is the focus of the lawsuit. Right, there's a few of our top stories this morning, look, we are tracking the SVB story in depth and we'll discuss it in just a moment with our tech and startups editor who follows the scene in San Francisco so closely for us. But just a word on some light and use this body that I was reading about. The new obsessed by property prices. Do you live in London by any chance? I know, I'm sorry, I'm such a Brit. I'm such a londoner, what can I say? London's most in sport, apparently, is now rumford, giddy park, and how old Woods do you know why? Well, I can stab a guess. Anyway, is it to do with the Elizabeth line? It is. Rather luxurious, the speedy and the extremely quiet Elizabeth line has really kind of shrunk the distances in London and so this part of London that is way east that has been pretty cheap and not all that popular is now incredibly accessible to the city and to central London. So apparently house prices there are hot. Yeah, the median price for an existing home in havering was 462,000 pounds in November. That's compared to 417,000 a year earlier, so a pretty big jump there. The only other bar that saw double digit highest price rises in the same period was the one next door barking in domino. Yes, absolutely. Okay, and there's a really nice piece about this on the blue bag terminal, of course. Right, so let's move on though and talk about the banking story that is ripping through these global markets. Fears over the financial health of Silicon Valley bank have sent bank stocks tumbling and depositors considering their holdings at the lender that is, of course, favored by startups. Bloomberg's a tech and startups editor Anne van der Mae joins us now for more from San Francisco, really good to have you on the program this morning. Now tell us first of all, though, what exactly happened to SVB? Well, it started on Wednesday. When Silicon Valley bank said, it was taking steps to shore up capital, citing losses from the larger tech downturn. That's looking really banky, the favorite among tech startups in those tech startups have really been struggling in recent months. So this ignited panic and on Thursday, people in the tech industry really started worrying and some venture firms even told their portfolio companies to pull the money out of the bank. And that, of course, just made things worse. How do they not have this ripple through the market and how bad is this sell off? Does tell off was quite severe. Silicon Valley bank shares fell about 60% on Thursday, which is almost $10 billion in market value. They then fell another 30% in after hours trading. And this was bad news for the whole industry. Every bank in the S&P financials index was down on Thursday and the index had its worst day since mid 2020. People are clearly wondering if this is the start of a bigger problem. Okay, so how is Silicon Valley reacting? What may happen to SVB next? There was a general panic in startup circles today on message boards were lighting up. People were texting each other. They were calling each other. A lot of people were asking, should we pull our money out of Silicon Valley bank? Maybe the most significant thing here is that many venture capital firms were advising their portfolio companies to take cash out of the bank on
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Now. And it's not just the jobs report where I just see inflation report as well and I'm wondering what that crucial Monday trading session really looks like because you're going to have the hot potentially hot numbers. I think it was like the last ten payrolls reports have been positive or big beats other than the numbers which is great for the people getting employed, but not so great for chairman Powell. Yet you have inflationary numbers that are clearly decelerating. And the margin of that has been coming down further and further, which is great as well. But those are two very different messages. On Monday, what should chairman pal pay attention to? Gosh, I mean, a, he's in a cone of silence, and he has a miraculous leaking moment. But, you know, I think he's, I think he's got to pay closest attention to what the trends are telling him. And not what something, you know, it's income tax refund season. So we've seen a pickup and used car prices. It happens every single year. People get their money directly deposited. They go put it down payment on a car. But pay attention to the fact that they can't afford the new car, as I said earlier, and instead they're having to substitute and you go to the use because they can't afford this $800 a month payment. And by the way, there's a 90 month car term car loan term that's out there. So the U.S. households in delinquency rates rising New York fed they release great data on household stress. We're seeing delinquencies rise there to bankruptcies are going up. So he has to pay attention to some of the nuances in not just what the headline is saying. All right Danielle, thank you so much for joining us, giving us a preview of what we're going to hear, potentially from fed chairman Jay Powell today in front of the house, Danielle di martino booth, CEO, and chief strategist at quill intelligence joining us live here in a Bloomberg interactive broker studio. Let's head to John Tucker and get a Bloomberg business flash. All right, the major stock average
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Com. It is always good, folks, to speak, to Cameron Christ. He is what we call a global macro strategist. He has a new title Paul. He's chief of ambiguity. Okay, here at nailed it. Bloomberg and our ambiguity officer shows up with us. I've never seen this. I just ran by Chanel basic our chief financial correspondent in the halls. Okay, excuse me. Up in the food court. I should say Cameron. And next to the cheez its. And Cameron, I'm sorry. The, from a microeconomic standpoint, the ambiguity of the macro picture now, I've never seen. Do you feel that way? Yeah, I mean, clearly, it almost feels like we're in sort of a wile E coyote type situation. On the Nobel Prize. Yeah, so global central banks have had in particular of hiked rates, a heck of a lot over the last year. History sort of common sense dictates that that should eventually have a significant impact on the economy. But to date, it doesn't appear to be playing out quite as we thought. So in a sense, it almost feels like we're the coyote, maybe he's just still on the cliff. Maybe he stepped off the cliff, but he hasn't yet tumbled down to the canyon below. And we're kind of in us and the central banks or in sort of data watching mode and sort of in football terms kind of read and react. So Cameron, just looking at the eco data today, I'm looking at my eco go screen on the Bloomberg terminal. I mean, I've got core PCE higher than expected. Yet, I've got a strong labor market. If I'm chairman pal, I can sit back and say, hire for longer, no problem, right? Yeah, I mean, that seems to be the risk management philosophy of the fed. I mean, I think so many people who are sort of my age, I'm kind of half a century old, and younger have never lived in a world, professionally at least where the fed viewed higher inflation is the primary risk. It's always been growth that's too low inflation that's too low. And so risk management considerations mandated airing on the side of easy policy. That's no longer the case. And so risk management dictates erring on the side of restrictive policy and that is a difficult sea change to accept if you sort of build an investment strategy in predicated on a never ending flow of easy money. But the easy one is gone and this is the real, I think, for all of our listeners across this nation, this is the heart of the matter. There's enough gray hair between the three of us to remember when interest rates were tangible and fabozzi like normal. Okay, great. We had a 13 year interregnum. Is that correct? Yes. Yeah, thank you. Neil, how you guys are killing Cameron's kill with me. I mean, I can think that he can pronounce it's even better. But Cameron the point is the free lunch is over. It's not money for nothing anymore. What do you perceive will be our macro behavior given that it's not a Dire Straits economy anymore? Well, ultimately, it should be a higher level of risk premium across across asset markets. There is an important step to take between now and then, however, which is that the fed itself, I think, has to acknowledge that the world has changed. And for all the discussion of higher for longer, ultimately, they haven't done that yet because the dot plot still has the long-term dot at two and a half percent. The implication being that our star is sort of mythical neutral real interest rate is still only 50 basis points. Back pre GFC in the 90s even that was thought to be two and a half percent, a neutral real interest rate. So I think one of the real key things to watch moving forward is any discussion about whether that are star level, whether the long-term neutral rate, policy rate has shifted higher. And I think the longer that the economy remains resilient in the face of what the models would say is extraordinarily restrictive policy, the more likely it is that they have to acknowledge that maybe neutral is higher than they thought it was. Maybe 6 to 9 months ago, Danielle dimartino booth from quill intelligence said to us that one of the agenda items from mister Powell is to permanently take out the fed put the pal put. Do you think that's that was a focus of fed chairman pal in his fed and if so, have they achieved that? What do they want to permanently remove it? I think is up for debate. I mean, certainly tactically they've wanted to remove it because they've been trying to engender tighter financial conditions. Which again goes back to this idea of that's something that most people have never seen. Prior to last year, the fed actively trying to engineer tighter financial conditions. Whether that proved to be the case in the ultimate fullness of time, 5, ten years from now, on the I think it's too early to say. And to some extent, dictate is going to be dictated by again. The level of neutrality and how the market trades risk premia around whatever the new normal is from entrepreneurs. Cameron, thank you so much, Kim and Christ, Bloomberg global. Macro strategists with our news in New York City here's Michael
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Your background and experience, what should they be doing at this point? I think what few people are talking about and hats off to Rubenstein for bringing it up. It's the jet ceiling. And it was yesterday it was Powell saying, I'm not stepping into anything. Good luck. I'll see you on the other side. People are not talking about this ticking clock. In the background and the parallels to 2011, which was really a bad time for markets. And we've already had two rating agencies come out and say, if this really does go down to the wire, then we are going to be potentially flirting with another downgrade of the sovereign debt of the United States. People just are not, they don't know where they don't know where to couch it. They don't know where to put it. And so I think that that is the thing that so few were talking about is that we could have a sequel of what markets look like in 2011. And that would not be a good thing. Was that really his remit? I mean, he's monetary, not fiscal. Or it's going to bleed out. I got to look at 20 seconds, of course. I asked him. No, no. But there are ways for monetary to come to the rescue of fiscal. And yesterday Powell said, not on my watch. That's your takeaway. Danielle di martino booth. CEO and chief judges over at quill intelligence. We thank you, as always, on a crucial day, of course, we're going to get a lot of fed speak. We got John Williams speaking earlier in the day, kind of saying what we thought he was going to say, right? But you all still have silicon commas from bostick cook. As Danielle just mentioned. That's a lot of talk. There's a lot of talk in a lot of messaging folks stick with us. The S&P 500 down 6 tenths of 1% NASDAQ down 1%. More ahead, this is Bloomberg. With progressive's name your price tool, you can find options to fit your budget. Because giving you options is the right thing to do. Oh yeah, like when I hold the door for someone. Sure, it may be weird if I don't time it right and they're a little too far away and now they're running and we're both asking ourselves, is it worth it to run instead of just, you know, letting them open their own door? But still
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And the rally, here is Charlie. All right, thank you very much. Lots going on. If there was ever a day to keep it locked into Bloomberg radio, this is at meta platforms. You mentioned that Carol up 27% but the year to date number up 62% now on meta right to the numbers here we had the now positive moments ago down now by one point little changed, S&P up 74 up 1.8% of the big story, the NASDAQ composite index now surging 446 points up by 3.8% that has stacked 100 index outperforming up 4.1% Russell 2000 up by 2.4%. Ten year yield 3.39% with a two year yielding 4.08%, spot gold dumb, 1.7%, 1917 the ounce and West Texas intermediate crude oil up four tenths of 1%, 76, 71 apparel on WTI as for the overall market backdrop following yesterday's J pal news conference, Danielle Demi martino booth is chief strategist at quill intelligence. Financial conditions have given back everything all the way until February of 2022. It's as if the fed has not hiked up one basis point. Forget 25 or unusually large 75 times four plus 50. Plus 25. But he did say that he anticipated that in time ultimately financial conditions would reflect his restrictive stance of monetary policy. Again, yes, it was just wishy washy. Nothing wish we wash you about meta platforms up 27% right now. And by the way, coming up three 30 p.m. Wall Street time major interview here on Bloomberg radio, which you can not ignore. Bloomberg businessweek interviews arc investments, Kathy wood, no doubt will be asking her her thoughts on Tesla, her biggest bet, the ark innovation ETF surging today we've got arc up now by 8.8% Tesla by 7.3% arc by the way up 45% year to date. And that is a Bloomberg business flash. Write
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Always, let's get back to it. It is fed day and we've put together an all star panel in studio Neil Grossman former CIO of TK and G capital and Danielle dimartino booth CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence and joining us on the phone. Priya misra global head of rates strategy, managing director of TD securities. We've got the fed coming out with our statement of 2 p.m. Wall Street time, a little press conference two 30. Michael McKee's down in D.C., he flies. I tell him to take the acela, but he flies down to D.C.. He likes. He likes getting the points, I think, is kind of what we're all about. Wait, you know what? Did Daniel Mark, did you work with Priya? Did you guys wear you freshman together at yeah, I was saying this year in the break Priya that when we were both starting out in the industry when we were teenagers and you were at Bank of America and I was at the fed that you were one of my closest contacts. So it's good to be on with you. I've enjoyed lots of Ed conversations with Danielle. So let me ask you about something that Danielle mentioned during the break, which I wasn't really thinking about. But all of the big hawks on this fed are rotating out and they're gonna be replaced with either doves or cash carri and like who knows which way he's gonna go depending on the politics. But what do you think that means for February 1st? Are we gonna see another 50 basis point hike after this or are they gonna step down to 25? Yeah, and the market I think was about 50% priced for it. I think it's actually fair because we've had two CPI misses. So we get another week CP and other point to a .3. I think they can step down. I do think then they can keep going at 25 for a few more meetings. But it's interesting. I think the divisions at the fed will sound less unified. And whether it's because of the rotating members to your point or the fact that I think inflation and growth will point in different directions next year, much more than this year. This year it was one trade at high inflation. So they were all very unified. But next year is inflation goes down, but not all the way to 2% and growth starts to slow down in the labor market more importantly starts to weaken. I think you'll see the fed sounding a lot more divided. And the voting members won't help either. So yeah, I think it's going to become a lot harder to call the fed next year. When do they stop? When do they ease? What happens to QUT? And the fed will sound, I think, more divided on this. Danielle, we've got a function on a Bloomberg terminal DOTS the whole dot plot thingamajig. I don't know what the heck it means, but it looks like it's going down starting in 23. Does that make sense to you? And again, as you raise the issue of the makeup of the fed, does that make sense to you? Hang on, the dots, median rises in 23. Settings on your oh yeah, after 23, then it goes down to 24 and 25. Right. Yeah, and I think what you could actually see today in the dot plot is that some of those dots might move down in 23. So you might see a shift onto the Devi spectrum in fact, well, I'll be looking for today is maybe the widest disparity that we've ever seen to Prius point. It's going to be much more contentious. I think that Powell is going to be facing multiple descents. One of the things that has been on his side, which has been surprising to me, given John Williams came from the San Francisco fed and has traditionally been a dove, is that John Williams has been so loyal to Powell throughout this, and I think that's going to be critical next year because between bar at bar being one of them, Williams, Powell, and Waller, he's not going to have that many more voters. In his camp, we forget that Powell suffered full blown mutiny in the very end with not a single person until Wayne angel changed his vote back years and years ago, but I think it's going to be a much more contentious fed and I think the dot pots are going to widen out a lot. What do you think, Neil? I'm looking at four 62 right now in the dot plot. So basically four 75 is the upper range. And I'm going to take the other side of that that Danielle. I think they're going to four 8 or 5. Well, I think that's possible, but I think the other interesting question is going to become, again, it lower the ultimate peak rate, the longer I think they're going to end up having to maintain that level because I think again, it's going to become a question of sort of tug of war between the stimulative effects of not doing enough and the potential impact on prices. And their ability to ultimately push prices down low enough. Again, one of the things you might ask yourself is we just went through two years. Well, as of next month, we'll have gone through two years over 7% inflation. So we've already started a process of wave process of pushing the consequences out. And so if it's going to take you, for example, you're hearing people talking, we'll get to 2% at the end of next year. I find that hard to believe. But if it takes 5 years or 8 years to get you to 2%, it's very different than if you can get to 2% say in two and a half years. And keep in mind, mister Volcker, even with 20 some odd percent rates, it functionally took a generation to get to an ambient level. A lot of them. I mean, I put together a Ford F one 50 and I'm looking at $90,000 for an American pickup truck. That's just not, that's the most repossessed vehicle in America, and it's the 21 and 22 models that they're repossessing the most quickly mats. Yeah, because everything has big payments and they are a friend who goes to auction if you're ever interested. Yeah, I'm definitely interested. So I'll tag along. What do you think? I mean, the terminal rate, I guess, is important. And I think Neil brings up a great point. If they don't get higher, quick enough, they're going to have to be stuck at their relatively low late rate for longer. Right. And I do think that next year, despite the market really begging for the fed to ease, I think they're going to sound very resolute and not ease or even push back against some of the market pricing of cuts. And I wonder, I hope Chappelle's asked about that if you can lobby in a question to mister McKee to ask about the rate cuts is a market in the last month has priced in a lot more rate cuts in late 23, 24. And while I think they're going to have to cut in 24 because the unemployment rate will rise a lot, I struggled with the cuts in 23. Now on the dots, I think the media is going to move up for 23. It's a fair point that I wish we had a mid 23 dot because that would be a clear median or to clear estimate of terminal, but we don't have a mid 23. I
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Let's get an update at world and national news. Nancy Lyons is the Bloomberg 99 one newsroom in Washington, Nancy. Thanks, John. Retailers are in the middle of what has traditionally been a major shopping day to kick off the holiday season, Bloomberg surf chat and has more from Washington. Not to worry, former Federal Reserve economist Claudia son sat in a Bloomberg interview. Consumers have delivered this year. We have had a very steady pace in terms of overall spending and the labor market is great. People when they have income, they spend it. Americans have income. Inflation is moderating son said, thanks to the resolution of supply chain issues, and if much of the spending is by higher income Americans, that keeps the lower income people who serve them working. In Washington nerf Chapman Bloomberg radio. The number of Americans carrying guns every day is on the rise. An estimated 6 million adults carried a loaded handgun with them daily in 2019. That's double the number of those who said they carried a gun every day in 2015. That's according to a new study that was published in the American journal of public health, with two mass shootings this week, President Biden has said he wants to try to pass a ban on assault weapons. European countries are scrambling to help Ukraine stay warm and keep functioning through the bitter winter months. The country has pledged today to send more equipment and support that will mitigate the Russian military's effort to turn off the heat and lights. Officials estimate around 50% of Ukraine's energy facilities have been damaged. At the World Cup today, excitement is building for the game between Team USA and England this afternoon that slated for 2 p.m. Wall Street time already today, Iran defeated Wales Senegal beat cutter and the Netherlands and Ecuador are tied at one apiece. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Nancy Lyons. Now back to you, Carolyn Paul. Nancy, I've got a couple shekels on the Netherlands, so I have a interest in this one. So keep us up to date there. We appreciate that. All right, here, so it just seems like every fed president speaks all the time. Is that always been the case? It just seems like more and more, every time we turn around when they're not in the quiet period, we're hearing from a fed. I guess it's not. The only person I care about is Jay pal and I guess we're going to hear from him next week. And so when I want to get a sense on what's going on at the fed and on the economy writ large, we turn to Danielle, demartino booth. She's a CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence, former adviser at the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas. She's our go to voice on this stuff. So Danielle, what is my fed chairman going to tell me? Next week. I think your fed chair come Wednesday is going to be resolute, even though reading through those minutes on Wednesday, it revealed that he is increasingly alone in standing up against the doves. By the way, it is Friday. So I've got the some people have the clock running down to New Year's Eve. I've got the clock running down to blackout, which is 7 days from now, which is when those set officials. No, that's a really good point. And it did feel like the minutes, you know, even though they were a few weeks old at this point, there was something almost for everyone, Danielle in that. Maybe we'll see smaller increases by the FOMC, but still we're talking about a higher ultimate fed funds rate. So it did feel like there was something for everyone. What could Jay Powell say when he addresses the brookings institution in Washington on Wednesday? He's going to talk economies going to talk about the labor market. He's going to take audience questions, brave man. What could he say that could change the thinking about fed policy? I think as long as Jay Powell sticks to his narrative that going from 75 to 50 is still unusually large, right? We didn't have 50 until 1994 before this, there were still at twice the magnitude. And that he sees nothing on the immediate horizon that suggests that the fed has achieved returning to 2%, meaning we're not accustomed to the fed, bringing the fed funds rate up and keeping it there. And I think he's going to reemphasize his idea of until the job is done. And that is going to fly in the face of those who are expecting some kind of easing in the near term. I'd say near term meaning 6 to 9 months. I think he's going to refute that idea. So the bull case out there for risk assets, I guess Danielle, this predicated to some degree that, hey, the fed has already raised interest rates pretty substantially. And lo and behold, it's actually working, whether you look at the housing market or maybe look at some of the commodity prices rolling over. Is a reasonable thing, but you're suggesting that's not where our fed chairman is. It's not that he doesn't remember. He's a lawyer. He's not a PhD. Economics. He follows the real-time data, probably more closely than a PhD in economics who would follow only seasonally adjusted long data series. He knows what's happening in the market. But again, financial conditions remain very loose historically speaking. And I think that that is more of his target is trying to flush out this whole speculative nature that we've had in the markets for the last 40 years. I've been maintaining. He's got a grander plan. He's trying to put monetary policy making back in the hands of the people that officials at the Federal Reserve as opposed to the market making monetary policy on behalf of the fed. The tail wagging the dog. But it is hard for to be fair for the fed it feels like Danielle, especially when you do whether it's the pandemic that causes all of a sudden unprecedented stimulus to be out there, you know, we constantly see when we run into trouble that it does feel like lawmakers in Washington are quick to kind of help out lend a hand and that changes kind of the liquidity story and does make it trickier for the fed. It does. And to the point of some St. Louis stead research, we inject it 43.2% of GDP into the economy inside of 12 months. That compares to the entire new deal or a 41 40.1%
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We appreciate it. Thank you as always. Neil Grossman former CIO of TK and G capital management. He's here. Danielle dimartino booth quill intelligence. She shared in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. Second segment with these folks because when we get them in a room, we gotta get as much out of them as we can. So Danielle, are we going to do a recession here? I just had a bunch of transportation companies saying, they don't see it. But boy, everybody else seems to see it. Well, it's ironic that you say transportation companies because truckers are going out of business at the fastest pace since 2018 right now. And transportations in a pickle. But no, I don't think that there should be a debate anymore about whether or not we're going into recession when the conference board queries CEOs and 98% of them say that we are almost in a recession and thereby, you know, therefore they are in cost cutting mode, I would point out that the ISM services survey that just came out a few minutes ago showed that employment actually contraction last month. So if the employment caboose is finally going to come into the station, I mean that's the final nail in the coffin of the recession debate. I'm confused, Neil, when it comes to what you're actually supposed to do in this environment in terms of the trade itself because it kind of felt like the bull case for the equity market and arguably for yields as well was the idea that the terminal rate would stall out at 5% and that was going to be the peak policy rate. But it keeps kind of shifting higher and higher every couple of months. So it kind of feels like there's this consistent upside risk that just doesn't go away. What do you trade in that environment? Well, a couple of things right now. I think number one from a dollar perspective is probably still raises the strength of the dollar at least in the short term. You're seeing, for example, commodities come off today, I think, probably commodity prices have some pressure, which of course is what they what they want. I've been having a rougher time trying to figure out what I would do with the yield curve. I'm looking for a point where I can actually put on a yield curve steep in her. I think the long end of the yield curve is still too low. But you're still fighting with the adjustment at the front of the curve. And from a broader perspective, what I like in this environment, I use, I use optionality because I think with higher volatility prices, even though we have had the haven't had the explosion in volatility that you might like to see, volatility is still high enough that you can put on trades with very, very favorable break-even. So that's sort of what I've been doing. Hey, Daniel, you know, I'm a simple equity guy, and I get the inflation talk. I get the recession talk. I think I've got that. What else am I missing? What's the thing out there that you think maybe investors or people in general are just not talking about enough or thinking about enough? So I think what is getting left behind is any talk or discussion of what's happening in the credit market. You've seen rates volatility. The vix is subdued. Yes. It's buried under a rock. But rates volatility viewed through the move index has just gone ballistic. It's at the highest level since 2007. And it's basically saying there's a credit event lurking out lurking out there and we forget that in 2018, the last time we were trying quantitative tightening that it was a credit event that actually bled through into the equity market at around this time of the year heading into Thanksgiving in the holidays that caused that Christmas Eve sell off in 2018, which by the way prompted the first Powell pivot. Yes, that's right. That's right. So Neil, I mean, again, I'll put it to you. What am I missing? I'm a simple guy. Well, it looks like. Let's go two things for going back. Let's go back to the fed for one moment. There are two things they're watching, employment. And inflation and the employment one is beginning to rise in priority because the unemployment rate is so low. You have to understand, if you went back in history up until COVID and what happened afterwards, the single highest 12 month average job creation was about 330,000 a month. Even after last month's number, we're still at 451,000 a month. So, and historical basis, the general view has been that a hundred to a 150,000 is a static employment market. Now, we have a very low participation rate and so if you can get a large jump that would help bring push up the unemployment rate. But if we're not going to get that to get a four and a half percent unemployment rate, which is talking about is going to take a lot of work. And even that, well, you just have to look at the numbers. It may happen next year this time, but it's not going to happen easily for 6 months. You're going to have to lay off. You're going to have to have losing jobs 200,000 a month for 6 months. Net, to get there. So I'm going to push back a little bit. If you look into the weekly jobless claims data, which appears to be benign on the surface. You'll see that in early September that jobless claims nationwide were down 49%. In the subsequent weeks, up until this morning's data, now they're down 23%, continuing claims bottomed out in early May. They have continued to quietly march upwards, continuing claims this is the one that you should follow more closely because that's people actually week after week collecting unemployment insurance. So that's an early May, low point. I think there's an unemployment rate shock building in this system right now. Just what the economy needs. All right guys, thank you so much for spending this extended period of time with us. We really appreciate it smart discussion. That's what we try to do here. Neil Grossman former CEO of TK and G capital and Danielle di martino booth of quill intelligence both in the Bloomberg interactive broker studio. They are not mailing it in so you guys, you get gold stars here. All right, let's head down to Washington, D.C.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker that is your Bloomberg business flash. Matt and Paul. All right, JT, thank you so much We appreciate it. Well, this week we're gonna get some economic data, particularly some inflation data. We have CPI tomorrow, PPI, Wednesday, and we also have a Federal Reserve, which is adamant in fighting inflation. So a lot of moving parts here that are going to play into what we may hear from the Federal Reserve next week. And when we talk Federal Reserve and interest rates and policy, we need to go to Danielle de martino booth, CEO and chief strategist for quill intelligence, former adviser at the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas. Danielle, thanks so much for joining us here. Again, a lot of inflation data. We're going to get today, what do you think the Federal Reserve is really going to be focusing on? Well, I think that they're going to go ahead and fade what they see in the headline CPI. I think that that has been so well broadcast across so many different channels that they're going to, they're going to have really have their eye more on the stickiness of the core. And whether that is as expected kicks up to 6.1%. My buddy, ivy Zelman, who's been a longtime veteran. The housing industry, she sees housing shelter both OER and rent. She sees that peaking at 7% in the fall. Year over year. That's a good 150 basis point above what it was. Yeah, ivy's the best. I used to work with ivy back in the day on the housing biz. So if you're the Federal Reserve, I mean, 75 basis points as we get to next week. But I guess that's baked in. Is it more just kind of the body language we get about whether we pause and see if this stuff actually works, or whether we just keep moving higher? Well, I think what we're going to be focused on are the things that are less in the fed's control. And that would be what are food prices going to do. I was seeing a report on the terminal last night that really, really hot blazing temperatures out west. That's affecting how much we're paying for produce. I think a lot of it's going to depend on how sticky rents are. Rents have begun to peak out. But even in a shorter lag world, which I argue. And I think that's one of the things that people should be paying close attention to. The effect of lag has been compressed, monetary policies working faster. But that being said, if Fannie Mae figures, it figures it takes 5 quarters to see shelter inflation move its way through the CPI, we still got high housing inflation for several more quarters. So I've got a listener writing in Danielle and asks, is if we get a 5% print, is that high enough to get the fed to continue hiking into a weakening environment or what CPI print matters in terms of the actual numbers. Look, until the job is done, I mean, how much more explicit can Jay Powell be? I don't think, I don't think board is going to be acceptable. So until we're until we're back headed back down towards 2%, which I guess we all interpret as three is headed towards two, right? Yeah, well, I mean, that's kind of what the European Central Bank alluded to with communications last week is that three might be the new two. But in order for us to get there, most of the work that's been done shows that you have to have an appreciably bigger bump up in your unemployment rate and I think that's where the focus is and it's intriguing that only lael brainard so far vice chair has said there are risks if we begin to slow the economy too much. You had to pay pretty close attention to what her comments were last week, but that's what she said. Otherwise everybody's just a bunch of former doves who are now bulls in Chinatown. So Danielle, I mean, aside from the fact that we've already had two quarters of negative GDP, what is your recession outlook? And maybe what are some of the parameters that kind of kick in to recession or maybe keep us out of it or maybe make it deep versus not deep? How do you think about that? Right now, I think about the recession in terms of it being long. And what people don't appreciate is that the national bureau of research economic economic research, they time recessions based on the level of GDP. S&P Global came out on Friday, they reduced their third quarter GDP estimate to .6%. I'm getting wonky here, but that means that it's not sufficient to offset the negative .8% they're anticipating we see for the final print for the second quarter. What that means is on a level, the NBER could come out and surprise investors who are like, woohoo. It's a happy we're seeing positive growth. The MB ER could come out and say, you know what? We're still in recession and surprise people because it gauged off of the level. That's what the arbiters, that's how that's how they do it. I want to finally ask you about political pressure. How much do you think Danielle the fed is going to feel if we start to get unemployment at four and a half, 5, 5, and a half percent, or I should say when we start to get unemployment around 5%. And how will that affect this independent body? Well, I think that the winds will shift violently from we're concerned about inflation to, oh my gosh, our constituents are losing their jobs. So it won't take the beltway crowds very long to go from point a to point B we saw knew that a Goldman that they're pursuing layoffs just this morning. That being said, this J Powell sounds like a different person and until something breaks in credit. And I don't mean just bankruptcies rising or defaults increasing. But until something fundamental breaks that threaten systemic risk, I see this J Powell was pushing forward. All right, Danielle, thank you so much for joining us once again. We always appreciate getting your perspective Danielle di martino booth. She's the CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligent and she's a former adviser to Federal Reserve bank of Dallas and she brings up that Goldman Sachs and his Goldman Sachs repairs for layoffs as soon as next week. That's according to The New York Times. Wasn't it just like a cup of coffee ago that we were talking about how much we have to pay these people to keep them? Yeah, well, I mean, you still have to pay them a lot, but it does look like at least according to The New York Times job cuts are going to affect employees across the company. Layoffs likely to be at the lower
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Vince on he can talk any currency any commodity any asset and he's traded it at some point during his career We're going to talk to him But first let's go to Nathan Hager and get a Bloomberg business naked A lot of investors to chew on right now Paul sweetie We had the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for the rest of this year By three tenths percent after an earlier drop in April we also got a warning from Goldman Sachs strategists that rising equity yields could be a continued headwind for equity valuations but you look at the tenure right now it's actually the yield there is falling now below 3% You got stocks moving higher The S&P up 11 points to gain a three tenths percent the Dow is higher by 42 points for a game of one tenth of 1% The tech heavy NASDAQ leading the games up a half percent up 63 points All eyes on next week's policy meeting from the Federal Reserve markets all but totally pricing in two 50 basis point moves This month and next we spoke moments ago with Danielle dimartino booth CEO of quill intelligence she says watch for what fed chair Jay Powell and company signal for the months to come I think they had their eye on getting to that third 50 basis point rate hike in front of us in September and achieving that almost $100 billion a month run runoff rate for the balance sheet I think they're going to try and communicate that in this coming weeks meeting Man right now stocks as I mentioned are moving higher treasury yields moving lower the barrel and IMAX crude is at a $119 45 cents a gain of 8 tenths percent their comb ex gold up 6 tenths percent of $10 60 cents at 1854 30 announced the Euro is at 1.0704 against the dollar British pound 1.2580 the end one 32.44 That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller All right Nathan.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Booth CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence some strong strong takes on these markets and this Federal Reserve At first let's go down and get Greg Jarrett We'll get the business flash from mister Jarrett I'm here for you Stocks are a bit higher in a week marked by the dip sell the rally price action It's been volatile Cinnamon got a boost after Chinese lenders lowered the 5 year loan prime rate by a record amount in an effort to boost mortgages and loans and made a property slump and COVID lockdowns Priya mizra TD securities tells Bloomberg there are some concerns the fed will overdo tightening she says they are walking a tightrope When we get to neutrals around two and a half on the funds rate does the fed at that point say inflation is too high and we have to get to three and a half four I think then a recession is very likely Or do they say that inflation is heading somewhat lower and therefore we can tolerate slightly higher inflation and they actually slow down the pace of rate hikes I think that's the big decision that the fed will have to make and that's going to determine whether we head into a slowdown or a full recession S&P is up 9 tenths of a percent of 35 now is up 6 tenths of a percent of 200 The NASDAQ's up over 1% up a hundred 16 the ten years down four 30 seconds the yield 2.85% West Texas intermediate courtesy of a half a percent of one 1272 a barrel coming goes down a half a percent at 1838 80 an ounce The dollar N one 28 13 the Euro a dollar 5 59 pound 24 86 Venezuela creditors are holding a rare meeting in Davos next week to discuss potential opportunities in the oil sector amid increasing optimism for investment in the country as the U.S. floats easing some sanctions The talks are being lubricated if you will by the global energy crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine That is a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets is on now Paul Sweeney.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg 99 one to Boston Bloomberg one O 6 one this inferences go Bloomberg 9 60 to the country Syria's XM channel one 19 and around the globe the Bloomberg business act in Bloomberg radio dot com This is Bloomberg markets All right coming up in this half hour we're going to have some more time with Danielle de martino booth She's a CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence Get her thoughts on this all important fed meeting this afternoon Plus we're going to check in with Eli parr's co CIO head of convertible strategies at kalamos investments get his thoughts on the credit markets a rough first four months for the credit markets But first let's go to Greg Derek Bloomberg business flashback Tech shares are taking the lead downfall putting pressure on the broader market ahead of the fed's interest rate decision which you will of course hear here on Bloomberg radio S&P's down three tenths of a percent down 11 the Dow's up at one tenth of a percent up 33 The NASDAQ's down one over 1% now down a 135 The ten year is down 7 30 seconds the yield is over 3% but barely West Texas intermediate is up three and a quarter percent of 105 76 comics goes down four tenths of a percent to 1863 20 Valerian one 30 ten the Euro a dollar 5 31 the British found the dollar 24 82 That is a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now pretty Gupta and Paul swing All right Greg Jarrett thank you so much We appreciate it here I'll just chatting with Danielle D Martin blue She's in the studio So whenever we get her understood I'd like to bender ear on lots of different topics Danielle so we have the fed today Are you in the camp that says the fed is behind the curve here is behind the market And if you are in that camp can they do anything about it I don't think there's any way to make up for lost time and I clearly I'm in Randy coral's camp as well Because he came out and said flat out we would have been acting sooner had there not been a crisis of leadership inside the fed And so I think that it is in widely acknowledged I think that the fed is in a pickle when it comes to continuing to ease credit by virtue of having such a massive footprint in the mortgage backed securities market And I don't think there's an easy elegant way out I don't think that there's a reasonable path that anybody can paint of a soft landing Really Wow All right so we're also talking off air about China Germany recession risk there And how that may drag the U.S. into a recession How do you think about those dynamics In fact there was some great math that Bloomberg economics did that they published yesterday that shows that if there's one thing that's going to turn U.S. inflation around it's of China stays in a funk And we fully anticipate that to be the case and so if this carries out in Beijing and I'm watching Bloomberg Asia every night when it comes on the air if this carries out from Shanghai into Beijing and we carry this through May that means that China is effectively in recession that Germany the world's third largest exporter is in recession So you tell me how the United States stuck in the middle of the world's second largest exporter how did they resist that gravitational pull of the two other largest exporting nations being in recession If we were to enter into a recession do you have any sense of how deep how long it may be Also a secondary question So it was interesting An interview from milk and yesterday on Bloomberg talked about the hopes this was a president Coke from Goldman Sachs The hope it would be a shallow recession I just can't say there are so many If you look at trend we should have 6 million more Americans in the workforce right now They need to do Where are they Had we stayed on pre-pandemic trend So there's already that initial drag.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Was the date in 1983 when the movie was released in theaters I'm Brian shook And I'm Charlie palette That Bloomberg world headquarters Elon Musk is now expressing doubt about whether he will succeed with his $43 billion offer to buy Twitter in his first public comments about the blockbuster deal The billionaire entrepreneur said at a tet event in Vancouver quote I'm not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it Earlier today must made a controversial offer to buy Twitter Dan Ives is an analyst with web bush securities This is a Game of Thrones And obviously once the situation happened with Twitter and the board and must not joining this became hostile situation Dan Ives of Wedbush and speaking of stepping it up what about the pace and size of Federal Reserve rate increases this year Danielle dimartino booth is chief strategist at quill intelligence People forget that this is a midterm election year And if there's one unwritten rule at the fed it's that you don't appear overtly political during election year Danielle dimartino booth of quill intelligence The deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund says the world needs to be preparing for downside scenarios relating to COVID-19 Gita gopinath is the IMF's first deputy managing director and she spoke with Bloomberg radio We need to prepare for that And that's the part where I think more needs to be done We need another 15 billion in grants this year to get the right amount of preparation in place and then 10 billion every year before pandemic preparedness Gita gopinath of the International Monetary Fund Stocks declined today with the S&P down 54 a drop of 1.2% for the week the S&P was down 2.4% the Dow today down 113 down three tenths NASDAQ down 292 down 2.1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie palette This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That's getting to look I used to always make fun of Americans worried about high gas prices when I lived in Berlin because I was paying like 5 or $6 Per gallon No per gallon I did the conversion and I can't swear that I did it well But that's what I figured I was paying Now you're getting there So you're getting to European levels whereas it used to be that the U.S. was far less than half It's so bad It's so bad math that I'm getting out the skateboard and trying to remember how to use it That's what I was thinking Everybody just kind of biking to work I'm going to guess though Greg that you will not go electric You know I'm a little nervous about that Internal combustion all the way for Greg Jarrett all right thanks so much We appreciate that All right today is fed minutes day and here Bloomberg and radio We think that's kind of a fun day so we get excited about 5 minutes So does our next guest Danielle de martino booth CEO and chief strategist for quill intelligence former adviser at the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas Danielle what are you really looking for this afternoon when we get a look at those fed minutes Well I'm going to be looking for the cas And I use that word carefully The tacit concession made to the bears made to Christopher Waller the former research director of Jim bullard at the St. Louis fed who's now our governor and master and George and others who have been insistent that the Federal Reserve does not belong in the business of housing of the word we would use internally when I was at the fed was credit allocation So it's an inappropriate place for the fed to be and it has been for about a year and the only nod that we saw to them in the minutes was that they said specifically We're going to get out of the housing business We're going to get out of the business of mortgage backed securities and focus more on treasury So I'm interested in that conversation and how that went down because I think it's what prevented a descent Yeah a lot of people though are getting downright angry that they're waiting this long to make those statements And that they're waiting until the March meeting to make any moves Inflation is at a level where I'm getting I'm getting text messages from viewers who finally figured out my cell phone number And there are a lot of expletives in them What do you think about the possibility of an emergency meeting or a 50 basis point hike in March You know when I saw and I was actually I was gratified that Jim bullard stood by his position on Monday morning And because it at least seems to me that there are at least a few people inside the fed who are not insensitive And that's the word that I'll use So it's all good and well to come out with an emergency rate cut in March of 2020 when investors are being in the crosshairs But it's not okay to come out with an emergency rate hike to answer the plight of everyday U.S. workers And that's to me it boils down to being white and black It's as simple as that We will come to the rescue of investors We will not come to the rescue of U.S. households And the fed is mandated to make policy in the public interest and to suggest that when we've got the gallows humor going on about skateboarding and relearning how to do that and gas prices are hitting $4 a gallon It's just again the word that comes to mind is insensitive $5 a gallon We were talking back at $5 Good gosh So Danielle I mean when we think about inflation and the fed I'm not even sure the feds in that business isn't inflation this time around primarily supply chain driven So is this a good point Maybe it's something that the fed can't address Yeah How do you think about that You know I don't think it's supply chain driven We saw production this morning increased by .2% once you got rid of the costs for heating oil and gas So I don't buy that I think that the supply chain disruptions are coming undone We're seeing inventories be replenished And on the other hand 42 million Americans got a 25% bump up in their allocation for food spending on October 1st And that's why despite world food inflation being off the rails It's even more off the rails for your average American family because the U.S. government has put so much fiscal spending out into the economy So we have to look in the eye the fact that fiscal spending and there's been countless empirical studies done on this When you give people money directly deposit cash into the hands of those with the highest propensity to spend it they're going to spend it and they did And inflation is lagging So it's dragging down growth even as the fiscal stimulus has largely gone away Can I just ask you quickly about Sarah bloom Raskin What's your take on the kind of job she'll do If she's ever confirmed Well and I think I really do think it's a big if people don't quite understand the importance of pat toomey sticking to his guns and saying I'm self imposing term limits And so time and again he's been able to actually do his job And give the scrutiny that's needed to certain positions whether it was the fed's municipal bond facility that he insisted be shut down along those credit facilities in the December 2000 2021 at 2020 stimulus I think that there has been an inappropriate amount of disclosure And I think demanding questions as opposed to being placated with saying I'll sign a pledge that's never existed and.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Everyone This is Bloomberg markets with balls we need and Matt Miller On Bloomberg radio Good Wednesday morning from the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York City to our worldwide audience We have some green on the screen here for that sell off yesterday What are investors to do in a rising interest rate environment We're going to check in with one of our faves Danielle dimartino booth CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence He's got some informed opinions Plus David Dee's managing principle and senior portfolio manager gladstone bank what is he doing with his client's capital as we head into 2022 But first let's go to Greg Jarrett Bloomberg news and getting Bloomberg business flash Greg we've got a rebound going on treasuries have reversed their early sell off as investors turn their attention to corporate earnings The S&P has bounced back a bit from the one month low with all 11 industry groups advancing earnings optimism offset speculation The Federal Reserve may deliver more than a quarter percentage point in March interest rate hike to fight inflation Patrick Armstrong stronger of blew rimi wealth tells Bloomberg he does not think a recession should be an immediate concern following such a height We're still in above normal growth I think U.S. economy is probably going to grow about four and a half percent this year The fed inevitably has caused almost all the previous recessions Powell's talked about this And I think they're aware of that And the letting the economy run hot They did that all last year and now we're seeing what happens from that But I think they won't hike too far this time S&P is up 6 tenths of a percent of 27 the Dow's up three tenths of a percent of a 115 the NASDAQ is up 9 tenths of a percent of a 124 to ten years up 7 30 seconds the yield 1.84% which taxes intermediate crudes up 1.3% at 86 59 a barrel Comics goals of 8 tenths of a percent of 1827 60 announced the dollar yen one 1433 the Euro dollar 1347 in the pound a dollar 36 43 Home buyers willing to spend almost a $1 million for competing the most for a piece of the red hot U.S. housing market homes priced between 800,000 and a $1 million so the highest rate of bidding wars of 64.6% followed by 62% for homes between a 1 million 1 and a half 1,000,061.7% for homes above one and a half million assault according to December data from Redfin That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets is on now Paul Sweeney and Mac Miller All.
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"quill intelligence" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is now the CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence So we'll get her take on what to expect Right now when I get over to John Tucker he's got your Bloomberg business flash JT All right Matt stocks mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve decision Investors digesting solid economic data are mostly good earnings the major indexes closed at records in the last three sessions They're at a pressure ahead of this fed announcement today Just a bit What to expect from the Federal Reserve today we put that question there Alan ruskin a little earlier He's a Deutsche Bank We'll get first to the taper It's too early to talk about rates really rates going higher We'll mention inflation I think the word transitory will get ditched probably in the statement I think they'll accept that yes inflation will talk at least that inflation will be coming down We got data today from the payroll services company ADP private businesses they say hired 571,000 workers last month Better than expected figure and it comes ahead of Friday's important government jobs data for October Among the individual companies reporting results lift surged Activision Blizzard sank Zillow lost more than 15% at one point after it announced it was winding down its home purchasing company after concluding the business was just too volatile Right now we have the NASDAQ up 14 points just a tenth of a percent rise to S&P 500 Down four points the Dow 68 points lower ten year yield at one 57 of a two year at 2.48 that's a 108 basis point difference between the two And as we look at gold right now more signs that the economy is going along pretty nicely from those economic reports gold right now is lower down 25 80 an ounce at 1763 We check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the trade day right here on blooper radio I'm John Tucker That's your Bloomberg business flash Matt Paul All right John Tucker.
Bloomberg Markets
Data reaffirms expectation for a slowing in consumer spending
"More we are so lucky to have Danielle DiMartino both in the studio with us here chief executive officer and chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion column as a former fed employee in Dallas and you know I really want to focus on the consumer we got a number of data today I got a point consumer spending came in lower than expected and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index plunged the most on a weekly basis in eighteen years in eight years and yet Jake how this put all of his eggs in the one basket of saying we're not going to cut rates as long as the consumer hangs in there it's a big bet on his part I mean he really really is not diversifying fed policy let's put it that way all right so I take it just from that come along that you think that the fed you becoming more it's not so much the rate will look the economy is slowing and it gets tiresome to listen to these press conferences when Jay pals clearly in denial yes interest rate sensitive sectors actually let's just say sector because autos really haven't budged in fact auto buying intentions in the latest consumer confidence data are crashing so the only thing the only needle that's been moved by these rate cuts in housing that's it and and we're seeing as I was as I was just thinking least worst we saw in the bank earnings reports that the credit card spending rates have been coming down revolving credit has been a tremendous support for consumer spending we're seeing the saving rate take up we saw that this morning it took up to eight point three percent consumers are clearly battening down the hatches were seen deposits cash savings increase as well so I think the consumer senses that there's something amiss but again that's where Jay pals got all of his bass all right there are two questions implicit here first question well cutting rates actually encourage consumers to spend more no there it it's it's now I I don't think it will and that you know might mean he's been very good at press conferences about drilling him on this what are these rate cuts going to do I think the rate cuts have more to do with the plumbing in the financial system because the fed is buying treasury bills like there's no tomorrow and money market funds are arbitrage in this by parking their money at the fed where they get an additional ten basis points it's boxing the fed into where they have to continue to lower rates okay the second question that I have is regarding that credit card spending is the biggest banks I read the heard on the street column in the Wall Street journal about this and it was not that it is declining it's just that the growth in the credit card revolving credit has been lower right coming down and I guess they're two ways to read this you could read this as a tempering of the economy which everyone knows that it's slowing and you could or you could look at it as out waiting consumer confidence and a sign that things are gonna turn south which is the correct read I think that consumers know that there is slowing let jobless claims of barely moved by the breath of states that have increasing jobless claims has increased from about a third it hit seventy five percent in September we're running about fifty one percent now of state in the country with rising jobless claims and to your point about growth in credit card spending slowing the average weekly earnings will get new data out tomorrow morning but in June it was running at a four percent right in September it'd take down to two point six percent that's the paycheck growth it's not so much that income is declining it's that households know that their paycheck is no longer growing at the same pace so it's it appears a chairman pal and some members of the the dovish fed if you will are thinking about it it's all about the jobs and everybody's got a job on points at its all time low briefly tell off the sidelines a lot blah blah blah blah so tomorrow what's the what do you look at the cut through the blah blah blah tomorrow the jobs number so I'll be focused tomorrow on the sectors where we're seeing job growth if you looked inside the internals of the eighty P. report yesterday one sector financials that was the only one where you saw any growth of any kind and super large companies over a thousand place otherwise you name the sector contracting and you name the size of the business seriously slowing growth so I'm going to be looking at where jobs being created we've seen in the survey we've seen in the soft data that service and employment indices have come down with in in the case of market it's a ten year low so I'll be looking to see what types of jobs are being created dig into this consumer comfort data and you will see that the highest income earners their confidence has been coming down mom at a much faster pace than the people who they employ who still have high confidence are the is the consumer a leading or lagging indicator absolutely lacking every recession like sixty three percent of post war recessions we have been in recession with with expanding consumption it is not something that you look to to see where the economy is headed it is something you look in the rear view mirror to see post facto we're cooking what did you want to hear from chairman Powell yesterday that you didn't hear I wanted to hear a lot more about the repair facility I wanted to hear a lot more about why he contends that it's not quantitative easing just because it's at the at at the short end of maturity curve I don't think there were enough questions that were asked and I think that his intent and his Cinderella wish is to have a nineteen ninety five nineteen ninety eight redox and be Alan Greenspan to where the economy just continues to expand after three rate cuts but in ninety five we were at the beginning of an economic expansion in ninety eight we had a massive hedge fund blowing up these were idiosyncratic events were not there we're deep deep deep into this economic expansion and I would have preferred to have seen a little bit more about him saying no more rate cuts but by the way QB's blasting right king of the Martinez thank you so much for joining us really helpful Daniels the CEO chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion calmest giving us her smart thoughts on what we heard yesterday from chairman Palin the fed and what we might be looking for to what we need to focus on tomorrow with the jobs number of course Bloomberg radio will cover the jobs report in full as we