35 Burst results for "Purdue"
AP News Radio
Florida Atlantic end's Fairleigh Dickinson run for Sweet 16
"It's Michigan state of Florida Atlantic moving on from Columbus. Florida Atlantic as a 9th seed ended 16th seed fairly Dickinson season with a 78 70 win after its first round upset of Purdue. The owls who got 29 points from Jonah Davis are heading to the school's first sweet 16. We've been talking late nights after the game at the prices all this time are we really, we really can make it too much manners and make some noise. We've been saying this since day one of the summer we got put out last year. 7th seed Michigan state got by number two seed marquette 69 to 60, Tyson walker let the Spartans with 23 points. Tom mccabe, Columbus
AP News Radio
Florida Atlantic edges Memphis 66-65, 1st March Madness win
"Fairly Dickinson 63 58 win over Purdue is just the second upset of a top seed by a 16th seed in tournament history. The knights held the boilermakers to 35% shooting and got 19 points from Sean Moore. They go make runs and they're a very good team. So we just got to dig in, be greedy 'cause we're small, but we use that to our advantage. Athletic, fast, and we just use all the two advantages and just do what we can do best. After you will play Florida Atlantic next after the owl slip by Memphis, 66 65, Michigan state advances following a 72 62 win over USC and it was marquette 78 Vermont 61. Tom mccabe, Columbus
AP News Radio
Trying to buy NCAA men's Final Four tickets? Here's what to know about going to the championship game
"Win over Texas a and M in the SEC championship game is the number one overall seed in this year's NCAA tournament and the crimson tide will begin south region play close to home in Birmingham. Houston is the top Midwest seed, the cougars are 31 and three, but were upset by Memphis in the American athletic association conference tournament. Defending national champ, Kansas, a 27 and 7 is the number one seed in the west, and its 29 5 Purdue taking the top spot in the east.
AP News Radio
Edey's 30 helps No. 5 Purdue hold off Penn State in tourney
"Zachary, who was named the tournament's most outstanding player scored 30 points as Purdue won the Big Ten title 67 65 over Penn State. I'm just kind of out there trying to make plays for my teammates the same way I always have all season depends on how team of gardening obviously they lasted teams wanted to try to leave me one on one. And then my job is real simple when people do that. Give the nitty lions credit, they trail by 17 with 6 minutes to go, but battle back to within one and had a chance with a last second try, but it wasn't to be. Purdue will be the number one seed in the east in the upcoming NCAA tournament. David Schuster, Chicago
AP News Radio
Pickett, Penn State beat Indiana 77-73 in Big Ten semis
"National player of the year candidate Zach Edie scored 32 points to go along with 14 rebounds is Purdue moved into the Big Ten title game with their 80 to 66 win over Ohio State. Edie was feeling it Saturday. I just kind of stuck with it. The game plan, I just tried my best to score the ball every time I touched it. Purdue, the number one seed in this tournament will play Penn State in Sunday's final, Penn State the number ten seed defeated number three Indiana 77 73 and has now beaten three teams in three days, all seated higher than them. David Schuster, Chicago
AP News Radio
Jackson-Davis, Hood-Schifino lead Indiana past Maryland
"Mason Gillis scored 20 points as Purdue, the number one seed in the Big Ten tournament defeated Rutgers 70 to 65. Purdue coach Matt painter. We had some guys have some good games built on it. We had a couple other guys that didn't have the best game. It's all right. You know, it's all right when you still advance, right? Purdue will next face Ohio State and Saturday semifinals as the buckeyes down Michigan state 68 58. The other semifinal will have Indiana and Penn State, the hoosiers defeating Maryland 70 to 60 and quarterfinal action, while the nittany Lions needed overtime to upset the tournament's second seed northwestern 67 65. David Schuster, Chicago
AP News Radio
No. 5 Purdue tops Illinois 76-71
"Number 5 perdue saw a 24 point second half lead evaporate, but held on at crunch time for a 76 71 win over Illinois. Brandon Newman had 19 points to lead the 26 and 5 boiler makers and says this type of win is good preparation for tournament games. Obviously it's march, you know, it's a good time of year, beautiful time of year. And it's going to be a lot of close games. It's going to be a lot of back and forth. Pointing at 11 Illinois held Purdue to just 29% shooting in the second half. Matthew Meyer led the align I was 16 points. Tom mccabe, West Lafayette, Indiana
AP News Radio
Edey, Big Ten champ No. 5 Purdue outlast Wisconsin 63-61
"Zack Edie had a double double as 5th ranked Purdue upended Wisconsin 63 61. Edie had 17 points in 19 rebounds, helping the boilermakers improve to 25 and 5 overall, 14 and 5 in the Big Ten. The center was one for 6 from the line before hitting both ends of a one and one, putting the Big Ten champs that had 58 57 with one 45 remaining. That ignited a game ending stretch in which Purdue was 9 of ten from the line. Fletcher lawyer had 13 points for the boilermakers who damaged Wisconsin shattered an NCAA birth. I'm Dave ferry.
AP News Radio
Hood-Schifino helps No. 17 Hoosiers sweep No. 5 Purdue
"Indiana freshman Jalen hood chicano had 35 points as the 17th ranked hoosiers have set in state rival Purdue for the second time this season 79 71. You come to Indiana and you know Indian anniversary rivalry and everything. So, you know, I knew 5 a big time game. I can go down as you know, one of the big time in the end of play. So, you know, it was definitely great to have a performance like I did. The 5th ranked boilermakers were outscored 45 33 in the second half in losing for the fourth time in 16 games. Zach edi had 26 points for 24 and 5 perdue, while Indiana in peruse to 20 and 9. Tom mccabe, West Lafayette, Indiana
AP News Radio
Edey has 21st double-double as No. 3 Purdue tops Ohio State
"Number three Purdue got well in a big way against Ohio State. The 24 and four boilermakers had a 44 to 21 rebounding advantage in an 82 to 55 win. Producer Zach Edie led the team with 26 points and 11 rebounds. We take a lot of pride on the controlling the glass, you know, getting those offensive rebounds. A lot of times, coach pain says, when you take a good shot, a good thing is going to happen, like we got to get offensive rebounds like that. The 11 and the 16 buckeyes have lost 8 straight while Purdue maintains its hold on the top spot in the Big Ten. Tom mccabe, West Lafayette, Indiana
AP News Radio
The latest in sports
"AP sports on time area, three of the top four AP college basketball teams play Thursday night. Number two, Houston easily defeated SMU, but number three Purdue lost by 15 at Maryland, and number four UCLA barely got past Stanford. NBA, Giannis Antetokounmpo will be one of the captains at the NBA All-Star Game Saturday, but he may have to sit out the game after spraining his right wrist in a bucks win over the bulls. The clippers and wizards also won. NHL, the bruins added two more points to their league leading total by blanking the predators 5 nothing. The hurricanes continued to win two, blowing past the Canadian 62. Golf Tiger Woods played his first rounds on the PGA Tour since his devastating car crash two years ago this month. Woods finished with three straight birdies for a 69 in the genesis invitational, 5 shots behind the leaders. Baseball lost one of its most familiar voices on Thursday. Tim mccarver, who was the color commentator for 24 World Series on three different networks, died at the age of 81. I'm Tom merriam, AP sports.
AP News Radio
Young's 20 help Maryland surge past No. 3 Purdue 68-54
"Jameer young led three players in double figures with 20 points as Maryland upset number three Purdue, 68 54, handing the boilermakers their third loss in four games, a technical fall against mason Gillis with per new up 8 helped spark the terps to a 29 to four run in the second half. Young says that's when the game turned around. Just trying to limit them to one shot, get out and transition. That's when we play our best balls, so the crowd was into it. They was bringing energy and, you know, we was taking good shots on our end. Braden Smith and Zach giddy had 18 each. The turps out rebounded the boilermakers 35 to 23. Craig heist college park Maryland
AP News Radio
Chiefs edge Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII thriller
"8 piece sports and Mike Reeves, the chiefs win the Super Bowl in a thriller correspondent Greg eklund has the story. Harrison butker kicked the game winning field goal from 27 yards out with 8 seconds left to the game and the Kansas City Chiefs edged the Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl 57, 38 to 35. After a Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay, two years ago and losing in the AFC championship last year, chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was named the Super Bowl MVP. I appreciate it because of the failures. I mean, the failure of losing a Super Bowl and losing AFC championship game and it gives you a greater appreciation to be standing here as a champion. On the college hardwood men's top ranked Purdue falls at northwestern 64 58 with the wildcats getting 26 points from boo boo. It's finally starting to show what the real answer is and I'm just super excited that we were able to get this win tonight and show everybody what we could really do. On the women's side, number one South Carolina gets 17 points by ziya cook as they down number three LSU in a battle of the unbeaten 88 64 in the NBA, Derek white's 23 points in ten assists leads the Celtics past the grizzlies one 19 to one O 9. I feel like when I have good energy, whether they're in or not. I'm able to do some good things out there. So just
AP News Radio
Buie, Audige help Northwestern beat No. 1 Purdue 64-58
"Using a closing run of 17 three northwestern upset number one produced 64 58. It was 55 47 with under four minutes to go before the wildcats led by boo boo is 26 points pulled off possibly their biggest win ever. It's finally starting to show what the real answer is and I'm just super excited that we were able to get this win at night and show everybody what we could really do. Zack Edie had 24 points for the boilermakers, but this was the wildcats day as they recorded their first win ever against the number one team in the AP poll. David Shuster, Evanston, Illinois.
AP News Radio
Braden Smith leads No. 1 Purdue past Iowa 87-73
"Purdue freshman brayden Smith played more like an upper classman in the boilermakers 87 to 73 win over Iowa. Smith had 24 points as number one Purdue improved to 23 and two. Shots just fell and kind of just play how it went. So with shots being able to fall, obviously confidence goes up a little bit. So that's what was happening. So it just felt good to make a couple shots. The boilermakers saw a 21 point second half lead cut to 6 with 6 minutes left, but it was all Purdue after that. Chris Murray had 24 points to lead the 15 to 9 hawkeyes. Tom mccabe, West Lafayette, Indiana
AP News Radio
No. 3 Houston denies Temple 2nd upset; beats Owls 81-65
"Third rank Houston avenged the January loss to temple by beating the owls 81 65 in Philadelphia. Jared walker dropped in 23 points for the cougars and Mark assassinated 13. Sasser's team took over after trailing by four at halftime. Really just come out when you know what a lot of energy and really just try to get a run. My goal is to make them call time out. And I think we did a good job coming out in the second half of high energy. The cougar scored the first 13 points of the second half, putting them in position to move back to the top of the pole on Monday following losses by number one Purdue and number two Tennessee. I'm Dave ferry.
AP News Radio
The latest in sports
"AP sports, I'm Bruce Morton. They stormed the court in Bloomington after number 21 Indiana held on to defeat top ranked Purdue 79 74. Trace Jackson Davis. We honestly just played hard and we played together and we really feed it off the crowd and a lot of the second half didn't go away, but we still fought through and found a way to win. Another game, another in state rival upset, 6th ranked Virginia, fell to Virginia tech 74 68. Hokey coach Mike young says this when elevates his program. The term was the abyss and we were there. Let's hope that we can continue to move in a positive direction. At Kansas state, tenth rated Texas escaped Manhattan with a 69 66 decision over the 7th ranked wildcats. Longhorns interim head coach Rodney Terry said this was no garden variety victory. To come in on a home court against a top ten team and have this kind of performance again, I'll stack it up with one of the best ways I've been a part of in 30 years of coaching. Another heavyweight versus heavyweight action. Number two, Tennessee outscored number 25 auburn 46 43, and it was number 13 Iowa state over 8 ranked Kansas 68 53. Rounding out the Saturday top ten winners club were number four Alabama, 5th ranked Arizona and number 9 UCLA. Pro basketball, the bucks were able to outlast the heat one 23 one 15. Milwaukee coach Mike wooden holtzer could only marvel at Yanis and racked up 35 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists. It starts with him being aggressive, him drawing extra defenders and his teammates got to make plays around him and we did enough of that. Had enough defense, particularly in the fourth quarter. To grind out a win tonight. Hockey at the NHL All-Star Game final, the Atlantic division bested the central 7 to 5. Bruce Martin AP sports
AP News Radio
Jackson-Davis, No. 21 Indiana beat Edey, No. 1 Purdue 79-74
"Indiana held off number one Purdue over the final two minutes to hand the boilermakers, their second loss of the season, 79 to 74. Purdue had pulled to within a point late after trailing by 15 at the half, trace Jackson Davis had 25 points for the 21st ranked hoosiers. We played together and we really feed it off the crowd and a lot of the second half didn't go away, but we still fought through and found a way to win. Zach ED led Purdue with 33 points and 18 rebounds, Indiana is now 16 and 7. Tom mccabe Bloomington, Indiana
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"Again as it relates to these france. What is the relationship of these futures contracts times early and market year are seasoning burr. Free harvest right earlier in the year. those spreads tend to be a little bit narrower. So if you look back in say a may of this year that our webinar. I think on may fourteen. The spread between the december. The july futures contract was about six cents so that july twenty two futures contract trading six cents higher than similar twenty one contract back in may and again. We've done research in this area looking at how those breads ch- change over time. And they tend to widen as you move or expiration a december contract rising towards artists essentially as what we can see that this year that is followed that patterns gone from six cents a premium between that December july interest attracts. Now we're up to about fifteen cents. In typically we see that uh spread region widest really in the fall at or near expiration of december contract. And so you know they're certainly you look at kinda average spread between those contracts. Maybe somewhere that twenty cent range. So there's a little more to be have right if you think about. What if if if. I'm one of these folks that have made some some hedges do Simple futures should. I be rolling contracts. I think we're definitely add to a level where that would be reasonable. I think there's also potentially maybe another nickel in there in terms of that winding barada point in the year really paying attention closely to those spreads again again there's a lot of affecting these markets in That could go either. Way typically expect it's wide maybe just a little bit more over the next four to six weeks you really want to stay on top of that because rally point where he picked up easily. A dime If you will ordered you would lock That spread as features. This is another example though. Of course Decent pricing in spring. Usual be looking closely at making those hedges in the new crop sutures which would be the diesel case of corn and we'll talk about slim beings but and then look for an opportunity if you want to take advantage of your storage facilities of rolling that hedge forward. This is a case in boy. Were obviously place hedges. Back in maine looks pretty. Good submissively Vice movement standpoint but also you have this opportunity to captivity proven in the spreads. So keep that in mind. Another example of how 'bout strategy has played out twenty so he took a quick look at march corn futures. in the said what's was march our furnace. Yes oh we just took a quick look at kind of maybe a strategy looking at making some sales After the first year right. There's probably some folks that are obviously makes him sales for things that they can't store here at harms. But there might be some folks that are trying to i an income into Twenty twenty two. What are the. What are the alternatives. What are the opportunities. As maybe looking at a relatively short term guinness through harvest into the first year what would not rising opportunities be so if you look at Today march twenty. Two hundred futures are a five twenty one. I went to the crop basis tool at central indiana and looked for what i expected. Basis to be Based on the historical basis levels january. Let's typically about five under and that's you know that's much weaker arts day but again i think we would all agree that expect basis and weaken here over the hardest period But if you look at the historical average five cent under would be normal in january that what is that a cash price of five dollars and sixteen cents which is Nobody reasonable price. I think by by any means Again you need help or potential storage cost. I have not account for that. Here's he needs to deduct three or four months or the storage cost depending on wind harvests would be for you But really the point is as you think about strategies here over the next three months All research has shown they're they're pretty. They're very low risk associated with storage strategies through the end of the year as you look further down the road right. There's there's a lot more that can happen but in the short run as you look over you know between now and the end of the year Storing on whether you were to take a vision of the future market we're just stored on hedge a at least a portion of the crappy store that's really not terrible strategy. You want to be paying attention. There's a lot on these markets If you wanted to store some or through the end of the year in mounting position the future market. I don't think that that would be a super strategy based on where we are with carryovers but You know again. You want to stay on top of that So i think you know when you look down. I think what thirty or thirty two years in history On average the risk of of that being a bad stretch is very low as long as you were looking at moving the corn by either december maybe early january so a lot of our viewers probably thinking milk ad made some born sales given. What's happened with prices. You're less esta will months make it in which they'd sold more but still obeys some born sales and are asking themselves you know what about their remaining the crop which should i do it Star a good bit of that It's pretty longer strategy which leads you're looking at moving neck for december january right. That's kind of recent changes in fundamentals are as you mentioned but the risk would be the yields wind up being are higher the risk would be that exports drawing up. This would be that we have been less of in the us economy and they lusted adverse number for small so there are some this factors a could make that strategy. Now turn out well but historically that's been a pretty good strategy and so mama reasonable to think again which you are l. Let's turn our attention to soybeans from it So as you look at the changes in the september's electrified estimates on last year's balanced shooting. Twenty twenty bob. The deputies sleeping. I by fifteen million bushels and that helped push secure over from the twenty twenty year into the twenty twenty one year up two hundred. Seventy five million bushels. That's equal to almost four percent of looking at the soybean crop bounce sheet twenty-one Push the yield up about six tenths of bushel. Two fifty point six portals break that have pushed production up by thirty five million. Bushels did reduce the estimated crush full one fraud that they raised exports same time so the ending stocks estimate bottom line went up to one hundred eighty five billion bushels being very of the twenty one year into the twenty twenty two year and that's equal to about a over four percent of usage so both of those numbers are hired. We're looking at earlier. You're not there on the world's side no change in the other brazil's or genus estimated production for the twenty twenty one twenty twenty two years and no change in china's projected imports from all sources. Not just less. So i'm the yield side. I mentioned that they went up to fifty point. Six bet me quotes that estimate of very close to most people's turn light estimates on. But i think the real question was will let you go up again october. The chance if you look at 'em foods in weather conditions that we saw showing up on those drought maps earlier in the program That's probably more significant with respect to possible. Impact on soybean yields and foreign yields sites typically about improvement in growing conditions. Late august is september. Evan good potential have some it back on soybean yields and i'm not sure that boiler we fully captured the impact of that improvement of boisture dishes on symbol on states. Michael you took a look at the nation state by state basis on. This report.
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"It'd be using <SpeakerChange> cover crops <Speech_Male> more acres <Speech_Male> and it's a good point <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> We did ask them <Speech_Male> why they choose <Speech_Male> to plant cover crops <Speech_Male> so if you plant cover <Speech_Male> crops. Why do you do <Speech_Male> it. And the most common <Speech_Male> responses <Speech_Male> in order <Speech_Male> were number one <Speech_Male> was improved soil. Health <Speech_Male> number two was <Speech_Male> improved erosion control <Speech_Male> and <Speech_Male> number three was improved. <Speech_Male> Water quality <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> Those didn't surprise <Speech_Male> me too much. <SpeakerChange> How about you. <Speech_Male> Not <Speech_Male> really i me. <Speech_Male> We had crop yields <Speech_Male> in there <Speech_Male> in worded <Speech_Male> in an another question <Speech_Male> so it <Speech_Male> wasn't a common for <Speech_Male> people to say we'll <Speech_Male> slow health and <Speech_Male> You'll higher <Speech_Male> crop yields and <Speech_Male> so that was a fairly common <Speech_Male> response but soil. <Speech_Male> Health was <Speech_Male> overwhelming <Speech_Male> overwhelmingly. <SpeakerChange> The <Speech_Male> most common response <Speech_Male> and of course. That's <Speech_Male> how it's being promoted most <Speech_Male> heavily so it wasn't <Speech_Male> too surprising to get that <Speech_Male> back as a response <Speech_Male> so <Speech_Male> One of the <Speech_Male> options out there though <Speech_Male> was And we <Speech_Male> wanted to learn more about <Speech_Male> this was the relationship <Speech_Male> of usage <Speech_Male> of cover crops <Speech_Male> to carbon <Speech_Male> sequestration <Speech_Male> contracts <Speech_Male> and those carbon <Speech_Male> contracts requiring <Speech_Male> the use of cover <Speech_Male> crops. That's a pretty <Speech_Male> new phenomenon that's <Speech_Male> only been around for a relatively <Speech_Male> short span of <Speech_Male> times. We weren't sure <Speech_Male> how many people would tell <Speech_Male> us that that that <Speech_Male> was an issue for him. <Speech_Male> Ten percent <Speech_Male> of the people said <Speech_Male> that that was one <Speech_Male> of the reasons why they chose <Speech_Male> to plant cover <Speech_Male> crops and given. <Speech_Male> how new that <Speech_Male> is. I was <Speech_Male> a little surprised that <Speech_Male> we got that many responses. <Speech_Male> How about you. I <Speech_Male> didn't think it'd be that high. <Speech_Male> There must be people <Speech_Male> planning cover. Crops <Speech_Male> thinking <Speech_Male> That they're going to under <Speech_Male> some kind You <Speech_Male> know carbon contract <Speech_Male> and the next one <Speech_Male> to two to three <SpeakerChange> years. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> Well i <Speech_Male> i would probably disagree with <Speech_Male> that because if they do before <Speech_Male> they sign the contract. <Speech_Male> They're they're gonna <Speech_Male> fall into a trap <Speech_Male> there. So i suspect <Speech_Male> those people that they <Speech_Male> may be <Speech_Male> signed a <Speech_Male> carbon contract <Speech_Male> at least <Speech_Male> on a small portion of <Speech_Male> their acreage. You know <Speech_Male> one of the farms. We had a chance <Speech_Male> to work with this summer. <Speech_Male> On the farm management <Speech_Male> tour here at purdue was very <Speech_Male> interesting <Speech_Male> They <Speech_Male> were in that situation. <Speech_Male> They had signed up <Speech_Male> a portion <Speech_Male> of their acreage <Speech_Male> under a <Speech_Male> carbon contract <Speech_Male> and they were using <Speech_Male> cover crops on <Speech_Male> that portion of their <Speech_Male> acreage in fact <Speech_Male> it was a <Speech_Male> kind of a <Speech_Male> combination <Speech_Male> decision for them. They <Speech_Male> were interested in and <Speech_Male> using cover crops <Speech_Male> and sign. The carbon <Speech_Male> contract was a <Speech_Male> way to get an incentive <Speech_Male> to actually put <Speech_Male> carbon cover crops. <Speech_Male> In right let <Speech_Male> me reword. What i <Speech_Male> what i met. Maybe they're trying <Speech_Male> to try to <Speech_Male> use cover crops <Speech_Male> to see how this would work <Speech_Male> if they sign <Speech_Male> a car a <Speech_Male> contract <Speech_Male> you say carbon contract. <Speech_Male> You don't have to do it on <Speech_Male> every single acre <Speech_Male> and so i think <Speech_Male> there is some experimenting <Speech_Male> going on <Speech_Male> Just just <Speech_Male> related to <Speech_Male> these carbon <SpeakerChange> carbon <Speech_Male> markets. <Speech_Male> Well <Speech_Male> that wraps up our discussion <Speech_Male> today. So <Speech_Male> for more details <Speech_Male> about the producing <Speech_Male> me group. Economy-barometer <Speech_Male> go to our website. <Speech_Male> Purdue dot edu <Speech_Male> slash <Speech_Male> barometer. <Speech_Male> Encourage <Speech_Male> you to join us for our next corn <Speech_Male> and soybean outlook <Speech_Male> webinar following the release <Speech_Male> of usda's <Speech_Male> september <Speech_Male> world eggs supply <Speech_Male> demand estimates. That <Speech_Male> comes out. I <Speech_Male> think the <Speech_Male> tenth of september <Speech_Male> in our webinar will <Speech_Male> be on september thirteenth <Speech_Male> So the report <Speech_Male> comes on friday and <Speech_Male> we're doing the web or on monday <Speech_Male> that'll <Speech_Male> be at twelve.
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"A little bit about the margins. Now that they're going to be seeing going forward so farmland value expectations Pretty strong Both the short term index and the long-term index rose by four points this month. And i i don't wanna too big a deal about the month to month movement in these Farmland value indexes. I think the key point is the both of them are hovering near not exactly at but pretty close to the all-time highs and both of these indexes right. We certainly safe to say. There's a lot of optimism with regard to the farmland market. And i think. I think that optimism is warranted When you look at the low interest rates the The probability of having higher than higher inflation than we've seen for a while strong crop returns all of those things translate into upward pressure on farmland values and if you look at the index now here in august of twenty twenty one versus august twenty twenty. The change is pretty remarkable right a year ago that short-term farmland value expectation index was at ninety five this month that was at one forty six. And you know we're seeing that we just Had united the webinar with todd keith. A few weeks ago Looking at land values from the land value survey that purdue conducted in the month of june and those values in indiana were up From june to june twelve to fourteen percent and expectations for further increases the rest of the year. So think you know. The the index is reflecting reality and This rally and farmland values is probably not over based on what we're seeing right. That's definitely the case and again as you said jim it's short term and long term typically long-term the the the index does not change as much as it would short term as you'd expect but there's a lot of confidence even in farmland values going out five years which is what the long-term farmland value expect- expectations index is is is tracking and it's august. It's close to the record. And if you compare the two indices the one difference is we've seen a big rebound in that short term value expectation index compared to this time last year There's a rebound as well in that longer term index. But as you point out it was never nearly as negative It was always much more positive even last year. At the height of the pandemic concerns it was stronger last year than it was than the than the short-term index We've been asking people about cash rental values particularly corn and soybean producers. We've been asking about that going back to may asking them what they think. The farmland cash runner rates will be in the twenty twenty two crop season versus the twenty twenty one crop season and there has been somewhat of a shift Particularly when you compare results these last couple months to may in may people were really thinking that these Cash roman rates were really going to take off. I think forty three percent of the people expected to see an increase in rates which was about half of the survey said they thought the increase would be ten percent or more People aren't quite that bullish about what's going to take place now. They've dropped back this month. I think Of the again among the people that expect to see her and rise in rates third thirty three percent of them say the rates are going to go up ten percent or Michael you've looked at cash. Rental rates a lot especially here in indiana. How often do we see a ten percent increase or more and farmland cash rana rates. It's a lot rarer than it is with land values if you look at land values Since two thousand seven for example there's been six different times in indiana where were land land values of went up over ten percent In in a single year. That's only three times for cash rent. So it's a little rare to see these large increases in cash rent One of the things..
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"Jim mentor director of the center for commercial agriculture. Joining me today is michael. Langham are professor of economics. Purdue we're going to review the results from the august purdue university. Cme group economy barometer survey of farmers from across the nation each month we survey four hundred farmers from across the us to learn more about their perspective on the economy and this month's egg economy barometer survey was conducted from the twenty third through the twenty seventh of august. So michael looking at the results. We saw a very small change in the economy. Broder moved up four point reading of one thirty eight. That was up from one. Thirty four last month still leaves us quite a ways below where we were last spring when we had some readings up in the high sixties and even broke through. I think one seventy one month. What's your take. yes i think. Prices are still below what they were back in may for example and so i think that's part of the reason why specifically corn soybean prices. I think that's one of the reasons why we are lower today than what we were. Back in may It did pick up a little bit though. An and as you said the report jim i think one of the factors was some timely rains In the corn belt and planes. And so i think that helped a little bit and i think whether conditions and crop conditions in particular can be very important as we move forward. September october november Talking about the economy barometer index. That's a good point because when you look under the hood and look at the index of current conditions in the index of future expectations. The biggest driver that small improvement was really next to current conditions. That from a reading of one forty three last month to reading one fifty two this month and you know even though prices are lower than they were back in. May i think people probably did feel a little bit better about their revenue prospects and corners sweeping country particularly because of some improvement and maybe yield expectations And those prices..
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"India's thing So even if it's short it can be. Farmers can have withstood like brief challenging period before. But it's never fun to do. So and the other factor that you took a look at michael was the liquidity and you might want explain that your definitions there a little bit. What are there's settled over ways to measure liquidity but to keep this very contemporaneous What i'm what i'm using to talk about. Liquidity is some survey done with the federal reserve bank of chicago that looks at loan demand and loan repayment as what i'm what am indicating here if a loan demand has been dropping rapidly in the last couple of quarters and loan repayment has been increasing rapidly in last two quarters as some using that information to suggest that improved dramatically The fact that people are are repaying loans. These they have the money or the wherewithal utter repay the loans. The fact that they're not demanding more loans compared to you know the previous year for example means these if they have liquidity they have working capital. There they don't need to borrow as much from an operating standpoint. So and so i found that very interesting when When todd was talking about all those factors that are positive towards land been awhile since liquidity has been a positive factor on a. He's been very tight. I and i'm in production agriculture. Since since about two thousand fourteen two thousand fifteen. So this is a dramatic change. I and and really does a great more optimism with regard to buying land again as you think about what might happen over the course of the next year. That's another positive right definitely. I think you're looking at least one one more year of of of of of increases in liquidity and then if things level let's say things level out that means liquidity would stay about where it was in twenty twenty two. That would still be very positive compared to what we went through from two thousand fourteen two thousand nineteen or we saw some pretty serious deterioration in in in working capital on forms. So todd you mentioned at the outset that you collect information that allows you to talk about regional variation and farmland not just the state level information from the state of indiana so share with us. Some of those regional results is so When i am here is the is broken. The state gets broken into six regions so In the clusters of counties We usually see the best number sort of come in at the west central and central regions of the state This year we've seen it particularly on the high end We've seen a lot of growth in the southwest portion in the southwest high high productivity. Land is now. Where we sort of the highest value breaker. So if you think about it. And i'm looking at your percentage changes here. The percentage changes in for example southwest indiana. Quite large of top quality. Land in twenty twenty one was up almost twenty eight percent average. Cloudy land up twenty percent. you compare that to the central part of the state central part. The state quality was up about sixteen percent. So that's a pretty big gap between what was going on those two regions but the other way you like to look at farmland. Bao's is the value her bushel of estimated corn productivity right. Yeah in in in those It it it held relatively sort of stable across those regions Maybe you could say that. Southwest is kind of catching up to the other parts of the state But you know it in terms of sort of Return per eight or return per bushel of corn produced They're held relatively close in with the With the other productive reason state so what. What was that number. So if you think about Price as a function of of corneal. How many dollars per bushel was forty. Eight michael w forty eight to fifty would capture central west central in southwest The other regions would be a little bit lower than that but I elderly at the but the main point here is is the southwest is similar a central and central. And so it in my mind that means that things are out of line in south west. I mean as todd said. It appears that there was just catching up to perhaps west central and central. Yeah i think that's also kind of a useful rule for our viewers to to think about in terms of looking at individual property and thinking about the value of that property. These got a good grip on a productivity. You can use that dollars per bushel of corneille as waited to collaborate across properties right. Yeah you're the wondering and you don't know the corneal. That's something you definitely want to ask your operator in. What is what is your crop. Insurance corn yield because that is one way to do a back of the envelope calculation not only for cash rampant also for labbe in the other one is thinking about commodity prices. Same time essentially. How many years to pay off You know just on the revenue side at least How many years of revenue would it take to capture them before my point. So are the questions you ask. People is what he thinks going to happen to farmland values in the next six months right. So you've got some information. What happened from december to june of this year. And then you ask him okay. you're in. Your survey was conducted in june. So then you ask them. Okay what are you. Thanks can happen from june of this year to december of twenty twenty one and share those results this time yes so They expect the growth to continue But at sort of a moderate pace. In fact i was mentioning this earlier when we were three of us. Were talking but have some work with a graduate student now that we recently are working through publication But looking at these expectations over time going back to the seventies generally speaking respondents pharma experts. If you ask them about what's going to happen in the future They get the direction right but there are always a little bit more cautious right so they don't wanna Sailing over to get double digit again. Right. it'll be even if you think there's gonna be double digit. Usually kind of respond of you know pie but not crazy high so It it it shows that there's positively there's There's belief that what we've seen over the last six months is going to continue But again with the idea that there was a little bit. More cautious about west can happen if you as-as rates of Increase the expecting which roughly four percents wouldn't be surprising than based on history to actually exceed that. Especially when you think about the fact that people are indicating that virtually all the factors were positive. Essentially we had you know over the last six months from december to june Closer to eight percent so almost twice what they're expecting and so they're expecting to sort of like have it again but in half so the purdue land value survey is really good information source for farmland is your indiana and some other states. Do something similar. I know iowa. Does something similar. Those results will be released later in the fall. But usda publishes some numbers as well as the lake collects information. There's some differences in terms of how usda collects data versus. What you do. And maybe what. I was stayed does so.
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"It's hard to pull him back. It's let your chart does suggest they can come back right yes We saw a large reduction break even price for core for example going from thirteen. All the way into twenty. It dropped about fifty cents per bushel. A lot of that was cash ramp. There were also some help Related fertilizer costs a coming out of thirteen. And so i and so The break even price can't come down But right now. We're on the upside break even price for corn soybeans. Eight to ten percent higher Twenty two compared to twenty one That know if you look at korn We're looking at four thirty. Beat a relatively low break even prize. I've seen some budgets and other states as high as four fifty And i'm more marginal soil. We're looking at break. Even prices closer to four seventy five so even prices dramatically higher than what they were last year but just to reiterate we're looking at some pretty good prices even even looking at the november and december futures You know for corn and soybeans. And so it's not like we're not. We're not seeing some good mart. Yes some margins there. It's just that the margins aren't as good what they are this year. looking at soybeans We were down to ten dollars below You'll break your price for soybeans. We we probably dropped break even price dollar a moving from two thousand thirteen and into two thousand twenty now going the other direction We're looking at a break. Even price closer to ten fifty attend. Seventy-five i've seen some break. Even prices from other states are closer that ten twenty five ten fifty but the point is is the break even prizes a are are are are substantially higher. I in twenty two compared to twenty one. So you've kind of tossed out those numbers a little bit on the next slide. I think you've actually got the breakouts so you can actually look at your cost per bushel for our viewers. Maybe it's important to look at those numbers versus their own numbers for those same categories. Right is particularly important to look at at land. Does your land cost per bushel as higher than what we've what we're presenting today That's something to look is that that's important for your negotiations with with the landlord but also machinery and labour two of the clause. That berry tremendously across operations are labor machinery. And so compare those free on on your own form. Your for example labor alley have approximately twenty cents a pro bowl bushel for corn and about sixty cents for soybeans. That could be double Some farms so tips so take a look at that but also the machinery side The machinery side could be can can range a substantially of reformed form. And so and so rather just looking at the break even and getting excited about that. A your break-even lease do that I encourage you to look at the benchmark. Use the numbers that we provided today as benchmarks. And compare a your bet. you're you're a forbes information to these benchmarks. So michael for some clarity listened to work through a couple of these so on your land charge you took the cash rent vita by the productivity number right now and so right. Now that's about a dollar thirty Yo for corn it's about four forty For soybeans yoga land causes more important for soybeans typically for soybeans land represents thirty five to forty percent of all the costs whereas corns closer to two thirty to thirty five percent The fertilizer in christian radically about ninety cents of core by dollar forty for soybeans The third largest costs for record about sixty cents per bushel for machinery. That's variable and fixed that's ownership portion but also fuel and repairs on by dollar savvy for soybeans and and so i- we've got other estimates for sea vessel size and labor. The other one. I wanted to focus on was labor. Did you compute that with i. I try to look at some of the form for management information from illinois and other states. Take a look at what the what the labor called. What the The the family living withdrawals the average family that withdrawals in those other days. And that. i i i That i look at my case far And and so us both of those pieces of information how many acres case far. How much money is on average is being withdrawn for family living expenses. I do the calculation using that using that information but as i indicated Labored does very a lot of among forms particularly amongst forms of different sizes You know some time. This is one area where The smaller and medium-sized forms are at a disadvantage typically Their labor cost per. Bushel is typically higher than the larger form since but there's larger farms would also i have to take a close look at labor. And so i. I'm glad you a reiterated Yoga or asked a question related labor. Because that's when you definitely want to take a look at it on your own operation so the way way you did it just to reiterate you looked at the owner withdrawal used for family living expenses divided by the number of acres and the operation and divided it back by the bushings rate. The case forum does have hired labor. And so i'll also use some some higher labor estimates. Usda young and subservient formation from kansas. And then just for again for clarity when you say. High productivity on corn yields are you using corn looking at the twenty two bunch. That's about two hundred and fifty bushel. Core obviously the yields could be higher than that in that will impact the break even The two hundred twenty five bushel corn with the same cost structure your break even gonna be lower Soybeans you sixty five bushel There's people that with with higher Higher tran yeltsin that So it support to to put in your own train yields When you're doing budgeting don't highest your you ever got if that's twenty one. Don't put that number into the budget. Put the yield so good information and good good homework. I think for us to think about break. Even i know that's something a lot of people enjoy but it's really important. So that wraps up our discussion for today. I want to point out to our listeners and viewers that you have another webinar coming up just two weeks in the day. We'll be talking about the india and farmland cash. Rent value survey results survey was done. The month of june report was just released here at the tail end of july. And we'll be discussing those little detail with the the reports Author dr todd keith. Member of our faculty so that's next. Friday artists twentieth twelve thirty pm. Our next outlook webinar is scheduled to be the day after the world. Egg supply demand estimates of new september crawford a crop production report. Come out that'll be on monday. September thirteenth reports. Come out on friday afternoon. We'll do the web on monday afternoon. Met also be twelve thirty. Pm eastern daylight time details for those will be available at our website dot edu slash commercial ad. And without i wanna thank Are my kowa partners in crime here today. Dr mason thompson and dr michael langham iron on behalf of the center for commercial agriculture..
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"One fifty five is pretty much right in line with where. Usda is coming out with twenty twenty But that leaves instead that at at about three and a half percent of stock in twenty one marketing year. Going into the twenty twenty teeth crop season at twenty twenty estimate a chart that three point five is a little larger than what we were showing last month. We were actually below three percent on last month's chart so it's it's a little larger than people were anticipating but if you look at it from a historical standpoint those are really tight end in stocks estimates. Right i mean we're pretty much talking pipeline supplies or maybe just a little more than pipeline supplies not much wiggle room there on either the production side or on the demand side So a volatile situation ahead of us. I think in terms of sleeping prices. If you look at the world's standpoint on not exactly the same what we saw in foreign but overtime on particular going back to two thousand eighteen. Those ending stocks estimates from a world standpoint had been tightening so of course in two thousand eighteen We got up on a worldwide basis up thirty three percent. Were pulling it down since then down to twenty five percent. It's not as tight as it was back in two thousand eleven and twelve and thirteen. But it's not too much above that either white. Those numbers were in the twenty to twenty three percent in stocks estimates range and were sitting just touch over twenty five percent So again very tight. Supply situation misleading side relatively usage so with that maytham will look into sobe basis. Yes we'll start off here with soybean basis here in central indiana again. I'm looking at this relative to the september slovene futures contract for the entire crop marketing year. In we have The black line current years sleeping places level in the blue line being the two year historical average is somewhat similar to corn. We've seen basis will back the difference for soybeans. That that's been a much more steady in a much more obvious trained on a moving reverting back to that kind of in store average so we had a swimming basis again relative the september futures contract of as much as two dollars forty two cents above the historical average back at the beginning of the summer and that has kind of lindell down to really only being able a forty four cents above the historical average. Basically we've seen so basis deteriorate you know about two dollars. Bushel Between beginning of summer and now in again how you calculate that is Affects what that number books like. That number might be shocking. Some people but it based on you know That september futures contract relief seen soybean basis really Decline moving towards the historical average and again You know that's probably A little bit interesting to think about as being about where basis is going to be fall so again when i look around at ford contract bitch. Football delivery acis appears to be right in line with that historical average in so even with the tight supplies we haven't seen Folks lining up to the bid up soybean prices this fall That may change. We've already mentioned what happens between now and harvest and have a big impact on sleeping yields. And so and again there might be some local effects so again on the next slide here just for a relative comparison. I pulled soybean basis in north dakota again using cantu states basis again. Don't forget the presentation of information here is very different than what you're looking at. On the purdue crop bases charts so again we're starting not at the could september but instead elect inside of charges starting at j. first week of january on and again on my chart showing that september contract-based this year We're looking at this on your by basis. That's that's kind of how they have their calculators. So this smear slogan basis continuing rolling on without hereby uterus andre as always you see is again we volatility there and against some of that has to do with roles between different futures contracts but nonetheless We've seen strong sleeping basis on their north dakota brought marketing year at least a calendar year given the way this is set up. But what's really interesting to look at is kind of where we are today So that last week on the chart they're you know their basis for soybean is sixty one cents above where it would normally be and again based typically very negative basis there in the northern plain states. So you know looking at the chart there somewhere you know. Dollar under is not abnormal for them But now they're looking at basis the baby only fifty cents under The the interest contract and so again given crop conditions in that part of the world. I i would expect to see Their basis Be a little bit stronger At where ours is continued to kind of decline But but time will tell in as far as you know again moving soybeans used to last and what the needs are going to be able to get the crop harvested so nathan when i look at these charts and i think about some of the things that we set on these webinars. Few months ago I'm humbled a little bit because we thought there might be some deterioration basis but we also recognize that some prior years with these tight supplies we had seen some pretty good pops in late season basis. And that did not materialize this year. And i guess. I'm wondering thinking about the export values if that was the big driver if you think about those prior years when we saw some some real positive strengthened basis late-season. It was in part because of very strong export demand. Mets simply did not materialize this summer. And i i suspect probably what led to the collapse and basis assembly. Didn't that export demand uber. That i think i agree and again you know there's kind two sides there one production while You know varying in different geographies. The national production air appeared to be relatively good But then i agree. I think that the main driver there was little. We have decent overall production what what is the demand side of it in export demand clearly At least leveled off or declined there as we move on disarmament where we didn't see sleeping moving much did there in the early part of the year so i think that definitely was the driver there we needed to see those big pops we needed to maybe have some production issues combined with you know some some big buying on the export market in we. Just we got kind of the complete opposite right. We got relatively good.
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"Have some timely rains across the corn bill. Yeah it's important to remember. These yields estimates are effective as of approximately august. One and of course already had a couple of weeks a- weather but as you point out we've got a couple more before the september one estimates than you know if you think about the weather impact he'll probably all the way out so at least the middle of september right so let's see the point here. Jim is the record yields in both indiana and illinois and illinois as sixty four bushel average. My goodness that's that's a as a high average and so It'll be interesting to see whether that whether that actually happens for our viewers. Yesterday we had the crop. Report down at the indiana states. There a press conference in one discussion points with our soybeans specialist shawn to steal from purdue was What's been the impact of early planning soybeans. And i think gun somebody's Eastern corn belt states in particular. We're seeing some of that. There was really an emphasis on planting sleigh beads early this year in fact for the first year that i really remember seeing a number of people plant soybeans and leaving their corn planting the yard Because they thought it was too early and Early planning soybeans has really turned out to be profitable movie that i'm a farm management. Were earlier this summer uncle so again you took a look at the crop condition. Ratings on the saving side when my skip the slide. Sorry so So if you look at the production estimate. Four point three four billion bushels. That's up about two hundred million bushels compared to last year and that was very very close to the report estimates so no big variation there. It's kind of interesting yesterday when the report came out. We did see ensure run. We did see cantopop marketplace but it seemed like after people looked at the report. A little more closely. They realized that this really didn't differ much. From what the pre release estimates were unsolvable sudden prices kind of came back to where they were before the report on the before the market opened that they actually not so much before the report on. So michael again. You've taken a look at those crop conditioner ratings. Yeah there's a very similar story. what what what what. We talked about Vis-a-vis corn indiana's looking well above the five year average of percent of of the of the soybean crop rated good to excellent in indiana at the. Us is the opposite story. Twenty twenty one Is below the five year average. And that's why. I say there is a band around that a us soybean yield. Because when you look at the comparison for both corn and soybeans a us us 2021 a compared to us five year average is a similar story. I remember the corneille was was very low. Cup compared expectations were the you'll lead. It came up right about the mill of a a free report estimates of that soybean yield and so we could see i could see a a deterioration in the us soybean yield in the next production estimate think our viewers kind of pick it up on the fact that we kind of take. The drought august is million apps. More back than its yield story is i mean. I'm just you're saying there is there is. It is an open question yet. Back towards local Let's take a look at the export situation so If you look at it sleeping exports this summer especially china will really pretty darn slow And as a result. Usda's pulled back their export projection Still a pretty good number from a historical standpoint. Obviously at a two point one eight billion bushels but a little less than what we're anticipating earlier in the year and of course china continues to be extremely important. You can see that on the chart if you look at the export projections coming off the world. Egg supply demand estimate report. And look at where we're at so far we've exported ninety six percent of what your stays fourteen allston. Well that's partly because they keep going back to the expert number right so as we've gone through the summer they've kinda gradually pull that number down a little bit and as result. Yeah i think we're gonna hit the target But not confident that if you look at the recent numbers. I don't think we're going. Whoa through it either. So then as you start looking at the ending stocks. This is a pretty interesting story. It's it's a little different story than what we saw. In porn in porn the stock sentiments pete fac in the beginning of the marketing year. On actually before the beginning of the marketing year and then we kinda pull them down pretty much continuously. Throughout the course mark media soybeans looked pretty similar up until the sprint went. All the sudden it beginning at the export numbers would start in slowdown. And if you look at the change since may on two occasions now. Usda has raised twenty twenty ending stocks numbers so a period of about four months in a row where the energy stocks estimate was sitting in about one hundred twenty million bushels than back in june. They bumped it up to one hundred thirty five this month. They bumps up twenty five lane bush's to one sixty. That's still very tight. End the stock estimate but in the futures market and the commodity markets. It's always change today. Relative yesterday or ms case changed this month relative the last month and so two changes going. The wrong way weren't using as much as expected and as a result that explains some of the softness that we've seen in soybean prices this summer if you move ahead and then start looking at the forecast for twenty twenty one marketing year so far no been sitting at that one hundred fifty five million bushels going back to june report. Didn't change that. It'll be interesting to see if that changes on september report. And let's if there is a driver of teams are going to be on the yield side so If you look at specimen hysterical standpoint that.
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"To see those ethanol production numbers and you're going to have to see better margins and that probably is going to be related to. What's going on with dan in terms of the rate of recovery. That we each durance so i'll pause there kind of turn over to nathan nathan you've been looking at The basin situation here in the form ball. Yeah so just. Start out with a quick look at. What's going on with basis here in central indiana So here we're looking at korn. Basis and central indiana using the center for commercial agricultural crop basis tool. I'm looking at the current years faces. Which would be the black line and relative to the historical three your average blue line and we're looking at this relatives of september futures for the entire crop mark where we're at the end of the crop marketing year looking at nearby basis to be a little deceiving so we're just going to look at it relative to the september futures for the entire crop marketing year to kind of get a better idea of what the trend has been there Of late. what you can see is that you know back Early in the summer months be well throughout the crop marketing year. Be relatively strong basis in that really got To its peak there in the early summer months where we were as much as a dollar forty above where we would expect to see based on that historical average basis so very strong basis levels there early in the summer monks. That has kind of pulled back a little bit but You know. I wouldn't say that it's had a steady or a trend of decline. It's just kind of a little bit out of time. We'll back and really flatten off your of late. Where currently we have basis levels. That are in the ballpark of dollar above that historical average Which for this year. We would expect basis somewhere around zero meaning. Cash writes the same but instead we have you know a dollar basis right now and so you know as we look forward to what to expect you know. Obviously the report. Yesterday the big news was Corneille being brought down at a national level but as has already been mentioned right In the state of indiana corneal is projected to be record highs and so basis being inherently local concept. You know we have to think about. What do we expect seeing of corn basis here in indiana where we're likely to half ample corns Supplies until. I think if you look forward a little bit and we'll talk about this just a second and a little bit more detail but you know those ford contract bids for new crop delivery or currently at levels. That would be more normal with normal being a very dangerous word when we think about what's happened in in the last several years but more in those normal levels as opposed to seeing how to continued strength in basis going forward so to kind of give a slightly different. I look at you know. We expect basis levels corn based in particular to maybe revert to those Seasonal normal this fall you know. What in state of indiana what what might be happening other places. So we've talked about at length and of some of the production issues that are being had in the northern plain states so i'm went our counterparts act. Kansas state university have a basis tool that similar to what we have at the center for commercial agriculture but within kind of their geographic scope. They include north dakota and so i thought it would be interesting to look at what goes corn basis levels In north dakota look like and then again kind of think about what what they might do. just kind of an interesting exercise provokes that might not be in indiana this to be useful information a couple of caveats just about what the of set up for the Tool that kansas state has where our tool hop marketing year starting in september on they can use more of a calendar year. And so what we're looking at Starts the first week jamerson. Very left hand side of charges the first week of january and then moving forward so for example weeks twenty would be last week of may right so the fifth year four weeks year. And so what you can see again. You know in north dakota Horn basis. This is for individual location. That's kinda in the center of the state. Their basis has been above what they would typically see is far as there through your average basis in order plain states tends to be much more negative see here in eastern cornell but again the red line being the current years corn basis has been above. That are green line. We saw that dip There in the middle of slide which is a shift from his again this nearby basis we were looking at deferred basis on that september contract for our tool here. We're just looking at nearby basis that dip roll from one contract for the next as far as look futures contract work comparing to really wanna wanna focus on is what's happened hearing last four weeks or so as it relates to corn basis. There north dakota and that is it's it's similar what we here's pretty strong right so a dollar above that three year average in as opposed to what i said as it relates to indiana and thinking about You know while nationally yields are down. We're gonna see record year yields here in indiana. We know that they're going to take a pretty big hit on yields on notre plain states. And so i would expect that the strength that we're seeing in basis year in discharge will likely continue as opposed to eroding like. We're probably going to see in the eastern hormonal stage where we're crop. Conditions are better. You're gonna be interesting something to keep keep an eye on and track but just the idea basis being local. That's what's going to happen. We've seen this in the past. I with for example. The planning issues that we saw in twenty nine thousand basis is the tool that get used to move grain right north south east west and so as we keep an eye on. What basis does Route the twenty one twenty two crop marketing year. It's likely that we're going to be pulling grain. You know from the eastern corner belt maybe toward some needs more in the western. So that's an interesting point amazing. There's been a couple of times in recent years. Twenty fifteen come to mind and twenty nineteen comes to mind where the opposite was true basis levels in the eastern corn belt. Here in indiana in particular. Were stronger than elsewhere because of shortfalls in production in our part of the country. We were having a pull corinth west to east. This crop year is shaping up the opposite. Let's going to be. I think something. For producers particular eastern bill to keep in mind with respect to making sales we might not see as much strengthened basis this market year as we haven't some of those barriers because of the fact that we're looking at record yields were those other states are actually below tran particularly true minnesota. You'll minnesota's a very large corn soybean a producer and the fact that they're prop is as bad as it looks like it's going to big There's definitely a core have to move up toward minnesota.
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"From the purdue university center for commercial agriculture. I'm dr brady bruin. I'm an assistant. Professor in the department of agricultural economics and joining me today are members of produce farm transition team. We have dr maria. Marshall who is the director of purdue institute for family business and rene wyatt farm business management specialist here in the department of agricultural economics and dr julia valiant of indiana university down in bloomington and she was a research scientist with the ostrom workshop. Today's podcast is a another episode in our farm succession series and the topic of today's episode is transferring the farm to a non family. Member so julia. You are new to this podcast. I want to give a brief moment for you to introduce yourself and also to remind the listeners that sometimes purdue and indiana university do work together even though we're rivals on most of the sporting fields. We do do a lot of great collaboration. So jack to introduce yourself to the listeners. Yeah good morning and thank you so much for having me on today and brady. It's really nice to meet you. I remember being at the lenders workshop..
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"Produce center for commercial agriculture. In joining me today is michael. Langham are is a professor by economics. Here purdue going to review the results from the june purdue university me group egg economy barometer survey farmers from across the nation each month we survey four hundred farms across the us to learn more about their perspective. A mega economy. This month's economy barometer survey was conducted from the twenty first through the twenty fifth of june so the economy barometer declined pretty sharply this month michael declined to a reading of one thirty seven from one fifty eight so that was a a twenty one point drop and if you look underneath that was really driven mostly by decline in turn conditions the index occurring conditions fell from one. Seventy eight to one forty nine so that was a pretty big drop Twenty nine point drop. The index future expectations fell as well. But it didn't fall nearly as much itself reading one forty nine. Md once every two thousand seventeen point drop. What do you make of that coming in. I wasn't surprised at went down. But i was surprised. It went down is much as it did when he said that was definitely the case with me. I thought maybe it might weaken a little bit but not as near as much as it. Did you know given the strong prices. I thought that would hold. It will be index of current conditions up there little bit. But obviously i was wrong. I i think there's some i think there's some underlying concerns related uncertainty a crop prospects and some parts. Some parts of the corn belt and gray plains is probably entering people's mind Your prices have been extremely volatile And so i. I just think this this general notion of uncertainty and possible possible price inflation. I is concerning to respondents. You mentioned prices. I guess i'm going to disagree with you a little bit. If you think about our may survey versus the june survey prices were significantly weaker. Especially on corn. Soybeans and hawks You know if you think about the peak in soybean prices for example versus the prices the week that we conducted the survey..
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"You're looking at twenty million acres over twenty million acres so approaching twenty five percent of all. Us soybean acreage is in those three states and again The ratings on the swings in those three states are very low. Particularly for north dakota south dakota so we had a sharp reaction to the reports today released on the report but also grain stocks report corn up july twenty five but the september and december contract's up forty cents soybeans a I think on what. July and august ninety cents november up. Eighty six cents So really interesting. In terms of the impact that we saw with respect to What's taking place there and that reaction Not unexpected. I guess given what took place in the reports but boy it sure points out in spades. What kind of volatility were experiencing in these markets right. this has been bouncing back and forth For several weeks now Really interesting with respect to what's taking place there again looking at crop conditioner rating michael. You know you kind of mentioned this again but as you look at the middle part of the corn belt the central corn belt eastern car belt crop conditions like pretty good. The problems all seem to be in the upper midwest. And and i guess you know a lot of our listeners. Probably wear some of the rainfall pattern took place over the weekend and maybe weren't picked up things like the drought monitor but as you look at it Some of those regions at least based on the reports. I've been able to pick up. Didn't get very much moisture out of some of the storms that were moving through so even though here in eastern in the west central indiana. We've got a lot of rain here Parts of illinois got lettering missouri. Missouri's got a lot of rain. There's still some dry spots out there right. So let's keep our north south dakota and minnesota and and if anything crop ratings for soybeans are actually worse in those three states than they are for coal and so and so again they represent a substantial proportion of the of the us acreage and so and so the market will certainly be watching weather in those three states. So if you look at ending stocks projections and of course us. Jay did not update their supply and demand estimates today. They'll do that mid-july when they released the update updated world eggs supply and demand estimates report. But if you take the balance sheet and simply plug in today's acreage estimates and then hold everything else. Constant in other words used to same yield estimate. Use the same demand projections that. Usda had last month it pushes the ending stocks for the twenty twenty one crop up about one percent compared to what the trade was expecting coming in the report so coming into the report you jay was projecting ending stocks at the end of the twenty twenty one marketing year which would be the end of august of twenty twenty one. Excuse me end of august of two thousand twenty two. They were at about nine point three percent. Today's report suggests that's gonna bump up to a little bit over ten percent to about ten point four percent so about a one percent move still a pretty tight stocks situation and corn relative. To what the. Maybe the trade is expected coming in today. If you look at what's been going on with respect to exports and a lot of people paying attention to that if you look at cumulative exports your through last week Through the third week of june we've exported about seventy eight percent of usda's projection for the twenty twenty crop year And obviously a big chunk of that. Going to china. I think Total exports all destination so far about two point. Two billion bushels about six hundred..
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"The the people who are buying these permits the confidence that they are getting a high quality Permit or offset in exchange for their money so an analogy there might be what. Usda has done with respect to organic agriculture right There are people talking about producing organically for a number of years but there was always the lack of confidence in terms of what the practices were. Usda came in and wound up establishing set of standards. And if you meet the standards you get the label. You can convey that to consumers and that created some consumer confidence with respect to those production practices. This might be a little bit like that and push that analogy too far but it could be a little bit like that. It's a good one So that could potentially set the stage for carbon says row crop agriculture being used not just in the non-regulated but maybe even in the regulated markets. That's right yes. So so one theory that people play with economics on the on the academic side. Is that a lot of these voluntary. Sustainability efforts are geared towards avoiding regulation in the future so one one pessimistic way of looking at this might be a lot of these companies are seen climate regulation. Come come down the pipeline in. Maybe it's not too far fetched. I mean the biden administration. Well biden was in the white house at one point already When he was there under the obama administration they were the most aggressive climate regulators. Our nation has ever known and so people logically. You're saying well he's back in the white house..
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"Com et is online. And you can go look in your county. What a particular practice would be expected to sequester or there are other studies that kind of put all that information in one place is kind of a meta analysis but what i think is useful is. It's one thing to to think about prices. Being offered multiple by sequestrating rate is another thing to think about all right. Well what would we actually have to pay farmers to adopt these practices. And that's something that people have actually looked at from from aggie con research point of view. And so we actually some colleagues here at purdue that did a survey several years ago where they were looking again at that point in time the carbon thing was much more hypothetical but they were essentially wanting to see. How much would they have to pay farmers in order to get them to switch from conventional till to no till and so again. This was a survey of farmers in the state of indiana and they basically estimated that for the farmers and their survey that the on average you'd have to pay them forty dollars an acre to make that switch from conventional tillage to know till which is an interesting number to know just to have some context there but if you wanted to convert that to kind of a carbon payment scheme you have to say okay. Well what does that translate to in terms of a carbon price so again you gotta make an assumption about that carbon sequestration rate so here just for easy math. I said okay. Well what if you could sequester one half or one metric ton per acre per year so that one metric ton would be pretty pretty ambitious half ton would probably be more realistic so that translates to a carbon price of forty dollars for the one ton or eighty dollars for the half metric. Ton of sequestrating would need it be needed in order to to incentivize the producer to actually participate. And so compare that right. Forty two eighty dollars per metric metric-tonne to where we're currently at ten to twenty dollars per metric ton and you can see. There's there's a pretty big gap there in terms of where that price currently is is when you do that sort of you know. Just kind of back of the envelope math. It shouldn't be too surprising to see that. Most farmers in our survey price just wasn't enough to get excited to participate. So that's kind of how i look at the price story there. So maybe the corollary to that is also think We've seen some some analogies here with respect to some other issues in agriculture. Going back a number of years. Think about a hog contracting for example in the early stages many of those contracts from a producer perspective were terribly attractive right and from the company perspective they were putting contracts out there and trying to determine how much interest there wasn't the contracts right. I suspect we're probably at that. Stage in these carbon markets where the companies are just trying to figure out. What is it gonna take to attract significant amount of interest. And we're probably going to see these prices change. Sure i mean who knows right up down sideways. I think the other thing too. I've heard it said this way and you think about the audience here with current commodity prices. We're looking at at korn. Revenue eight.
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"Welcome to produce commercial. Egg cast purdue university center for commercial. Agriculture is podcast featuring farm management news and information. I'm jim mentor. Director the producer center for commercial agriculture. And joining me today..
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"So they're saying <Speech_Male> they're very concerned. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> And truthfully if you had <Speech_Male> in the somewhat concern <Speech_Male> europe tomas <Speech_Male> artfully roughly ninety <Speech_Male> five percent of the people <Speech_Male> survey. So <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> <SpeakerChange> what your <Speech_Male> michael. <Speech_Male> This is a <Speech_Male> real surprising <Speech_Male> because if you look under the <Speech_Male> hood a little bit and we did <Speech_Male> some questions look <Speech_Male> under the hood a little bit <Speech_Male> if you look under the hood <Speech_Male> a little bit. There's several <Speech_Male> things that are being discussed. <Speech_Male> That <Speech_Male> would be very negative <Speech_Male> from an estate tax <Speech_Male> policy for <Speech_Male> performs and ranches. <Speech_Male> One of those <Speech_Male> is a <Speech_Male> reduction or <Speech_Male> elimination of step <Speech_Male> up in basis for inherited <Speech_Male> property. <Speech_Male> That would have huge <Speech_Male> implications <Speech_Male> on taxes. <Speech_Male> Also a lowering <Speech_Male> of the <Speech_Male> of the exclusion <Speech_Male> amount so <Speech_Male> smaller states <Speech_Male> would have to pay a state taxes. <Speech_Male> I and <Speech_Male> that's and that <Speech_Male> lowering could <Speech_Male> be substantial <Speech_Male> and so they're <Speech_Male> worried about that <Speech_Male> and also the <Speech_Male> possible increase <Speech_Male> in capital gains <Speech_Male> taxes. You combine <Speech_Male> all of those <Speech_Male> things and you're looking at <Speech_Male> a situation <Speech_Male> that's going to <Speech_Male> adversely impact. <Speech_Male> <hes> <Speech_Male> informs ranchers that. <Speech_Male> Wanna pass <SpeakerChange> on the farm <Silence> the next generation. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> I think one of the <Speech_Male> things. That <Speech_Male> policymakers needed <Speech_Male> understand. Is <Speech_Male> that this change. <Speech_Male> In policy <Speech_Male> and the state taxes <Speech_Male> could really have differential <Speech_Male> impact on <Speech_Male> agriculture. <Speech_Male> Agriculture <Speech_Male> is in industry. <Speech_Male> That's very asset <Speech_Male> heavy. The biggest <Speech_Male> class of assets <Speech_Male> for farms <Speech_Male> and ranches is <Speech_Male> land <Speech_Male> and <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> that capital <Speech_Male> intensive nature <Speech_Male> means by <Speech_Male> definition. If you change <Speech_Male> the way you taxes <Speech_Male> states it's going <Speech_Male> to be difficult much <Speech_Male> more difficult <Speech_Male> To <Speech_Male> to pass on state <Speech_Male> on and pass a farm <Speech_Male> operation <Speech_Male> onto the <Speech_Male> next generation <Speech_Male> so <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> what continue to ask some questions <Speech_Male> on this going <Speech_Male> forward. But it's <Speech_Male> pretty clear. <Speech_Male> I <Speech_Male> do things i think of <Speech_Male> one is people are aware <Speech_Male> of the discussions <Speech_Male> that are taking place <Speech_Male> and <Speech_Male> they're concerned <SpeakerChange> about <Speech_Male> it right <Speech_Male> and it has ramifications <Speech_Male> beyond <Speech_Male> just estate state taxes. <Speech_Male> Certainly <Speech_Male> if you have <Speech_Male> the state <Speech_Male> tax policy <Speech_Male> particularly substantially <Speech_Male> that also <Speech_Male> could impact land <Speech_Male> values and as you <Speech_Male> indicated you know land <Speech_Male> is by far and <Speech_Male> away the biggest asset <Speech_Male> on far balance <Speech_Male> sheet anything <Speech_Male> you do <Speech_Male> to impacted. Atlanta's <Speech_Male> particularly negatively <Speech_Male> does <Speech_Male> have an impact on <Speech_Male> the financial situation <Speech_Male> on the farm <Speech_Male> From a a solvency <Speech_Male> standpoint <Speech_Male> so there's <Speech_Male> ramifications even <Speech_Male> beyond estate tax <Speech_Male> policy <Speech_Male> only <SpeakerChange> under these changes. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> Good point <Speech_Male> well michael. <Speech_Male> Mecca wraps up <Speech_Male> our discussion of <Speech_Male> the economy <Speech_Male> barometer. So for <Speech_Male> more details you <Speech_Male> can go to the website. <Speech_Male> Purdue dot edu <Speech_Male> slash barometer. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> I'd encourage <Speech_Male> you to consider joining <Speech_Male> us for our next corn <Speech_Male> and soybean alek <Speech_Male> webinar. We mentioned <Speech_Male> the volatility. That's taken <Speech_Male> place there. We've been <Speech_Male> doing these webinars <Speech_Male> each month. Following <Speech_Male> a <Speech_Male> usda's release <Speech_Male> of the world act supply-demand <Speech_Male> estimates so <Speech_Male> that webinar will take place <Speech_Male> on monday. June <Speech_Male> fourteenth <Speech_Male> at twelve thirty pm <Speech_Male> and of course <Speech_Male> if you're registered for the webinar <Speech_Male> you <Speech_Male> can always watch it at your <Speech_Male> leisure. We <Speech_Male> court those and post <Speech_Male> them on youtube <Speech_Male> and our senators <Speech_Male> youtube channel as soon <Speech_Male> as we can within <Speech_Male> a few hours usually <Speech_Male> so <Speech_Male> you can register for the <Speech_Male> webinar at our website. <Speech_Male> Purdue dot edu <Speech_Male> slash commercial <Speech_Male> egg and so <Speech_Male> I encourage <Speech_Male> you to share the podcast <Speech_Male> with your friends and colleagues <Speech_Male> and on <Speech_Male> behalf of michael langham <Speech_Male> in the purdue university <Speech_Male> center commercial agriculture. <Speech_Male> I'm <Speech_Music_Male> jim entered. Thanks <Music> for
Purdue Commercial AgCast
"purdue" Discussed on Purdue Commercial AgCast
"Welcome to produce commercial. Egg cast purdue university center for commercial agriculture podcast featuring farm management news and information. I'm your host. Jim mentor director of the center.