17 Burst results for "Priya Mizra"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow, are just about four hours away from the open of U.S. trading. Let's get you up to date in the news you need to know what this shower we begin in the nation's capital where tensions between the U.S. and China continue to heat up. Now the head of the Senate intelligence committee, Mark Warner, will introduce a bipartisan bill allowing the U.S. to ban Chinese technology, including TikTok. We've got to have a systemic approach to make sure that we can ban or prohibit it when necessary. And Virginia, senator Mark Warner made the comments on Fox News Sunday heard here on Bloomberg radio. He says China presents a bigger threat to the U.S. than the Soviet Union. Well, along with that Bill Karen, The White House is closing in on an executive order to ban U.S. investment in parts of the Chinese economy, Bloomberg Steve rapaport joins us live with those details. Good morning, Steve. Good morning, Nathan and Karen, sources tell Bloomberg the restrictions include investments in technologies that could enhance China's military and intelligence capabilities, currently U.S. companies can invest in China's tech sector all they like some have put money into projects that have national security implications like artificial intelligence and codebreaking. The White House wants to set up a so called outbound investment program with the Treasury Department, President Biden is expected to request funding for the program this week in his fiscal 2024 budget, live in New York, I'm Steve rappaport, Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Steve, thank you. Meanwhile, this weekend, the national People's Congress kicked off in China, president Xi Jinping vowed to boost high end manufacturing in the face of U.S. pressure, Beijing also set an economic growth target of around 5% for the year after missing its GDP goal last year by a wide margin. Back here in the U.S., Karen investors are going to be monitoring fed chair Jay Powell's testimony before the Senate tomorrow. TD securities head of global rate strategy period mizra says, after this month's expected increase, the fed's rate hike path could extend longer than the market is pricing in. I think the goal 25, but if they don't see a slowdown in growth and inflation, I think they could keep going well into July potentially September. Priya mizra TD security says she expects the fed to engineer a hard landing. In Europe, Nathan shares a credit suite down more than 1%, one of the bank's biggest backers Harris associates has sold its entire stake in the firm. Chief investment officer David harrow says he has questions about the future of Credit Suisse. And another banking news out of Europe we're learning UBS cut its employee bonuses by 10% last year. We're also being told Citigroup is preparing to almost double its staff in Paris that comes as city and other firms grapple with the fallout from Brexit. And futures this morning are little changed to all S&P Dow and NASDAQ futures. They're all little change. The Dax in Germany is up to tenths of a percent. The Kaka prayers up a third of a percent in the FTSE 100 lower down four tenths of a percent. Ten year treasury up ten 30 seconds, you have 3.91% that yield on the two year 4.83%. Nymex crude oil is down 1.4% on a dollar ten at $78 57 cents a barrel. Comic schooled up to tenths of a percent, up $3, ten cents, at 1857 60 announced, and a Euro one O 6 three 8 against the dollar. Straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines, plus, a check of sports, and this is Bloomberg. Right, Karen, thanks, it's 5 31 on Wall Street and John Tucker's here with more on what's going
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I think the way the fed is pursuing policy here is it's kind of smart. I know the fed gets a hard rap because of missing the early rate hikes with 25s from here is quite smart. They got to keep on 25s and level off and at a certain point in time this degree of tightening has got to hurt you. If you are part of global Wall Street, it is my requirement for the day. You must listen to our entire part garvey interview with ING financial markets, find it out on all the social that we do. I really can't say enough about the sophistication of the gentleman from Dublin with ING again over where we are and certainly his modeling of a new regime of inflation speaks true to the short term data, Lisa abramo it's the ten year up 7 beeps, the 30 year bond up 7 beats, we're seeing huge moves in the bond market. 6 months ago when people saw these kinds of levels, they said, bye. And that's why in November, we saw these levels. And then we saw yields come down. This is the key question for today. Are we watching the persistency of inflation that suggests a new regime that means that 4% for a benchmark bond in the United States is actually fair value for a longer period of time. To put things into perspective, I'm going to do that right now, Priya misra and Lisa bramlet are far far too young to remember when bob Redford stood outside the Plaza hotel in the way we were in with Barbra Streisand. They said memories, I guess what? Productivity dynamics are back to 1974. Someone who has been expert it measuring this over to our financial bond market is Priya mizra of TD securities and she joins us this morning. We're looking at the history of this and we're also looking at your brilliant call and inversion, although some have been brave recently and said, look, higher yields, I get a coupon along the way. I want to be brave here in February and March of 2023. Did the bravery the courage did it slip away this morning? Thanks for having me on. So no, I think you have to be patient. It's hard to pick the absolute top in yield. You're talking about having confidence. I don't have a ton of confidence in the front end because we know inflation is sticky. We know all services ex shelters driven by wages. It's a very tight labor market and companies are holding labor. So it's possible that inflation remains persistently high through the year and the fed, we think in 25 basis point instruments may have to keep hiking. Maybe 5 75, maybe 6%. So that very front end of the yield curve I think is very driven by data in the near term. The long end, that's your view that's your neutral rate view. And I think the data is strong on the consumer and the labor market, not because policy is restrictive. We are in restrictive territory. It's because the lags have not worked through. I mean, the fed fund rate cost 4% only in December. You have to give the economy more than two months for it to kill over. And I think that's why the long end is selling off. People expect that interest rates don't matter. I think interest rates matter. They just take a while to show up in terms of business investment decisions or spending decisions. Free, I want to go to the it takes a while. If I've got a 7 standard deviation move from very low 30 year yields out to very high 30 year yields stunningly out above the great moderation and I go back to whatever the new center tendency is, how long does that take? Is this a matter of 6 months or is it a matter of 6 years to get back to normal? So economic theory suggests 12 to 18 months from Montreal policy to work through. I mean, you could argue maybe it's a little bit shorter, maybe it's 12 months, 9 months. I will say something that may be making the lags longer this time. Is that the consumer entered the hiking cycle with a large amount of accumulated savings. Now, those savings are running off. We're tracking by the end of this year. We're thinking in the third quarter those savings are largely gone. That's when the consumer has to start to reckon with higher interest rates, tighter financial conditions, maybe a job market that's not as strong. I mean, they may not be a lot of firing, but job openings start to come off. So I think it's more later this year that we think consumer spending slows down the job market starts to weaken. So I don't think you're waiting 6 years. But we are watching those savings numbers. And the savings continue to come off. But today, if I have a job and I'm making 5% wage growth, wage gains and I've got savings, I'm spending. I think we're just saying be careful in extrapolating that because those savings will run out by the end of the year. How much conviction do you have Priya to load the boat on tenure to load the load the boat on 30 year treasuries? So I have much more conviction on the ten year and the 30th than I do on the front end. I don't know about loading the boat. I used the word I used, I guess, some few weeks ago when I started to lag in, I would like in some more because I think you're at we entered some around three 80. We went to some more longs at 4%. I think the fed's telling you that they have to engineer a hard landing. They're not going to say it's because it's very hard politically to get that through. But how do you get inflation down without a rise in the unemployment rate? So the fed will have to engineer rise in the unemployment rate, then these 4% ends will look really cheap, but it's for the peak of four ten. Now maybe it goes to four 25. So I think you want to have some dry powder to keep adding to it. But I think these levels in a long-term sense, I don't think our star is higher or the neutral rate should be much higher. I think the fed is committed to 2% inflation and we've seen productivity. I don't think the economy can handle very high real rates in the long run. Priya, this is such an important point, and it goes against what poorer garvey was saying where he said, listen, people think we're going back to the same kind of regime we were in prior. You're saying we are going to go back to that regime. What gives you confidence other than just the fed is committed to a 2% inflation regime, especially if a 2% inflation regime is different from the prior ten years, which it wasn't a 2% inflation regime as Tom mentioned. It was a sub 2% inflation rate. Right. So I think there are some structural factors that might be moving inflation a little higher. So if we were sub 2%, maybe the next ten years will be a 2% number. But I think inflation does if the fed thinks they want to get to two, they're going to keep policy restrictive for a while. They're going to keep that
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Futures are little change this morning I had a comment from Jay Powell. The fed share takes questions at the economic club of Washington the afternoon, but Priya mizra head of global rates strategy at TD securities says it will be hard for investors to gauge fed policy from his remarks. I know there's a lot of focus on comments by chip power, but I think their data dependent and it's very hard for the market to get exactly where the end point is. We're going to have to watch the economy and inflation, our view is it's going to be sticky. And so you'll get a series of 25 hikes as the fed ends, but they don't end with the market was pricing in. Priya mizra, a TD securities said the fed could raise rates through June, stick with us for complete coverage of J Powell's comments today will bring them to you live on Bloomberg radio and television around 1230 p.m. eastern. On the earnings front this morning, Karen shares of BP are up nearly 6% after posting record profit in 2022. BP's boosting its dividend and will buy back an extra $2.7 billion in shares. Well, Nathan Credit Suisse is the laying bonus talks with employees, sources tell us directors are managing directors at Credit Suisse being told meetings on compensation set for today are being canceled. It's unclear exactly why Credit Suisse is pushing back conversations on bonuses. The bank is declining to comment. Well, turning to politics, Karen President Biden will be commenting on the State of the Union. Tonight, Nathan dean, senior policy analyst at Bloomberg intelligence says the president will discuss debt ceiling negotiations. This is a must pass piece of legislation. You may hear language from President Biden essentially saying we want to clean debt ceiling raise Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy is talking about how we need to cut. There's going to be some type of negotiation with the debt ceiling is important. Nathan dean with Bloomberg intelligence says House speaker Kevin McCarthy is also focusing on the debt ceiling. He made remarks last night at the capitol. Join us for live coverage of tonight's State of the Union on a special edition of Bloomberg's balance of power coverage begins 8 30 Wall Street time this evening on Bloomberg radio and television. While turning to geopolitics now, Nathan, The White House says it's looking forward to getting whatever data is recovered from the Chinese balloon that was downed in the Atlantic, former defense secretary Mark Esper says the president could have shot down the balloon sooner. My view was always that we should try and capture it first. When it first entered our airspace in the aleutian islands near Alaska or whatnot, I think that's where it should have been first shot down as then. And former defense secretary Mark Esper spoke with our Washington correspondent Joe Matthew
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Jobs and their income have been affected. So their consumption will also take some time to recover. Until they get jobs getting. Okay, one Wang Tao head of Asia economics and the chief China economist at UBS, thank you so much for joining us here on daybreak, Asia. Closer look at market action on the way. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, the conversation with Priya mizra of TD securities. If we find that inflation is sticky, wages are staying strong, then I can see frontend rates going back to the upper bound of the range, maybe even moving higher because we realize the fed's not cutting. We have a lot of cuts priced in for this year next year. I think they can start to get taken out that terminal rate can go higher than where it is right now. Just about 5%, we can get to 5 and a quarter. So the front end can absolutely sell off. The ten year does get tricky because it's a longer year to view over the next ten years. What's going to be the impetus for the cut? Great question. So I'm going to go back to the fed's dual mandate. Inflation and growth. So our view for rate cuts. We've actually got a lot of cuts penciled in for next year because we're looking for a recession in the base case. And we see inflation, I said it's the key, but by next year, starting to get within the three two and a half percent range. So cutting for both sides of the dual mandate. But let's say we get this, what we're calling immaculate disinflation scenario. Where inflation continues to fall soft landing every risk asset to the moon. Even in that scenario, I can see the fed cutting rates, which is embedded in their dot product. They've got hundred basis points next year and the year after, that's not for growth reasons. That's for inflation reasons. And because the fed wants to get rates away from restrictive into let's say neutral territory. So if inflation gets back to two and a half by the end of the year, I think there's a case for the fed starting to cut because fed funds at 5 or 5 and a quarter is too high. We should be closer to two and a half or 3%. So that's the reason to cut. Get more of this and other conversations on the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Value for our shareholders in whatever way that happens. And we work every day to try to figure out how to create more value. So things are on the is anything off the table. Nothing's off the table. Never off the table France. Never off the table for actually we look at everything. And we're determined to make sure that we get the most value for our company. It's such a pleasure. Vicki always good to see you. It's been a long time in person. Thank you so much, Vicki Holland CEO of accidental. Back to you. All right, Alex Steele there talking with the CEO of Occidental she is betting on a premium for zero carbon oil, which I think is just such a fascinating concept and talking to Alex a lot about these DAC costs getting them down to a hundred to a $125 dollars a ton. So really pushing the green angle there of Occidental. And of course, the drive behind any gains in the shares will be the buybacks, which she said that they're very focused on. So interesting stuff their oil in general has been, I think, fascinating. Last week we saw an 80 handle on WTI and now we're at 73. So we've really seen a drop in expectations. I guess for demand or is it just you think that the dollar has risen in value? What's a little bit of both, right? It's the fact that the dollar made a little bit of a rebound. It's also the fact that the Chinese reopening is taking longer. But it's also refining capacity. That's still a big hot topic when it comes to President Biden. So you're starting to see a lot of the underlying not enough. Not enough supply, basically. And refining capacity has to be difficult to build up. In any case, we've also seen big moves in yields as creating and we're talking about big jump on the front end of the curve. But even to four 41 on the two years, even the ten year has rocketed up, I think 13 points on Friday and another 9 basis points today to 360 one and change. Let's bring in Priya mizra. She is managing director and global head of rate strategy over at TD securities. Priya, what was your take on the incredible roller coaster ride that we had last week after the fed and the non farm payrolls? Sure. Thanks for having me on. It's been quite a week. So I think the market is dealing with both uncertainty on the economic outlook and that's what we saw with both payrolls as well as ISM. Very strong numbers. We're not seeing signs of slowdown there, at least in the labor market or even service demand. I actually was more interested in ISM services because I think that's going to be a leading indicator and so far not really seeing moderation. But then the other source of uncertainty is the fed. And there's a clear lack of urgency from chat power from the fed to keep hiking. And he was very non committal. I mean, I was surprised a little bit with the reaction on Wednesday because I don't think he was dovish per se, but he didn't push back on the easing of financial conditions that we've seen since December. He was very noncommittal on the end point. Like, where do they end hikes? And sort of left it to the data. So I think it's going to really come down. I know there's a lot of focus on tomorrow's comments by chip out. But I think their data dependent and it's very hard for the market to get exactly where the end point is. We're going to have to watch the economy and inflation. I think there's a lot of optimism that inflation will keep declining and our view is it's going to be sticky. And so you'll get a series of 25 hikes as the fed ends, but they don't end with the market was pricing in on Wednesday, just one more high we expect two more hikes, possibly chance of another 25 in June. If inflation sort of flat lines here and doesn't keep declining. Let's put some numbers on that here, we're looking at ten years map pointed out higher by about 9 basis points, 360 one as the bond markets factoring everything you just laid out is it kind of being a little wishy washy and just kind of sticking into this trading range. Why aren't we seeing it break out? I think that Daniel is really tricky, right? Because that's your view on fed funds in a way over the next ten years. And so that incorporates a slowdown later this year next year it incorporates rate cuts at some point. I mean, even if we get a soft landing, the fed is not going to keep rates at 5 or 5 and a quarter. They're going to have to bring it down. So I think the ten year likely stays in a range. Three 25 three 75 is the range we're thinking. The front end, I think, can break out. If we find that inflation is sticky, wages are staying strong, then I can see frontend rate it's going back to the upper bound of the range, maybe even moving higher because we realize the fed's not cutting. We have a lot of cuts priced in for this year next year. I think they can start to get taken out that terminal rate can go higher than where it is right now. Just about 5%, we can get to 5 and a quarter. So the front end can absolutely sell off. The ten year does get tricky because it's a longer year to view over the next ten years. Why do you think the fed is going to have to cut if we're adding jobs at such a fantastic pace and we don't see such a huge drop in earnings. I think right now we're looking at a 3% drop in earnings last quarter. What's going to be the impetus for the cut? Great question. So I'm going to go back to the fed's dual mandate. Inflation and growth. So our view for rate cuts. We've actually got a lot of cuts pencil in for next year, because we're looking for a recession in the base case. And we see inflation, I said it's sticky, but by next year starting to get within the three two and a half percent range. So cutting for both sides of the dual mandate. But let's say we get this, what we're calling immaculate disinflation scenario. Where inflation continues to fall soft landing every risk asset to the moon. Even in that scenario, I can see the fed cutting rates, which is embedded in their dot product. They've got hundred basis points next year and the year after, that's not for growth reasons. That's for inflation reasons and because the fed wants to get at that point rates away from restrictive into let's say neutral territory. So if inflation gets back to two and a half by the end of the year, I think there's a case for the fed starting to cut because fed funds at 5 or 5 and a quarter is too high. We should be closer to two and a half or 3%. So that's the reason to cut. The timing, the pace would depend a lot, whether it's a recession or a soft landing scenario, but the read cuts is just if inflation comes back down whenever it does, I think the fed then starts to signal rate cuts. All right, Priya, thanks so much for joining us Priya mizra their managing director and global head of rate strategy over at TD securities. We love to get her take on the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"At curve inversion. Now a negative 80 basis points off the vanilla spread, the two ten spread. I first thing I did pretty when I walked in today, I looked at the three months 30 year difference in yield, the T Bill out to the 30th that used to be the old benchmark. I see. Before your time. And it's a record level back 30 years. It's record record record craziness. I don't really know what to make of it. This is a jobs report. It's a jumble. I think it's interesting that, I mean, I can't speak to the three 30s but I can speak to the twos tens. The negative 80 is enormous because ginormous. Priya mizra had said that, look, this could sound eventually get to a hundred negative a hundred as well. We're getting closer and closer to that. And that's a level we haven't seen going back to, well, the 80s. It was negative 200 basis points. Far back. Further back, the 80s. Thank you, Craig. What do you mean in my place? This morning. Right now we're going to look at them and it's complex. The markets are complex. So let's look at something more simple. Which for global Wall Street is a future of Goldman Sachs and also the venerable Carlisle as well. We should point out that David Rubenstein of Carlyle has a huge commitment to what we do here at Bloomberg news to make that disclaimer as well. And of course, there's no one better. To help us with Days of Our Lives in global Wall Street and China basico joins us this morning. What a weekend. My head is spinning. Let's sum. New York Times talking about disco and Sullivan. William Cohen, writing in the FT, our Goldman can regain its swagger. I will mince words. The back end of the essay is really quite terse about mister Solomon, bonus round, Carlyle tries to regain its swagger this morning with Harvey Schwartz, who, if you weren't paying attention in season three, was thrown out the door. When Solomon took over. Here to explain the latest soap, finale Bassett. Yes. What's going on? Yeah, so Harvey Schwartz was co president of Goldman Sachs. He left after David Solomon, got the top job as you're saying. Let's fast forward 5 years later. You have Carlisle with a stock that is lagging all of its biggest rivals. Big time. And Harvey Schwartz coming in to save the day for Carlyle, hopefully. Remember the Carlisle founders, this is their second try here to try to move past the fathers, which still owned 25% of the firm, listen Tom, people don't realize Carlyle while it's a small firm by market cap, it employs across its portfolio companies about a million people across. I did not know that. Yeah. The impact is large. Very quickly here. Get out on New Jersey Rutgers. He is first job out of school as a firm that I remember well, JB an hour stumbles into the blank fine shop J Aaron ends up at Goldman Sachs. What is mister Schwartz's skill set? Right. That allowed him to move off the phone deck at Jay Aaron to essentially running the show. Yeah, well, remember, because he rose to CFO, COO, president of gold, and then that leadership experience is one thing, but he was really shooting through the ranks of the sales teams at Goldman. So what does that bring him now? He has relationships with the biggest sovereign wealth funds in the world. This is a time where fundraising for private equity, credit firms is lagging. So the hope here is that Harvey Schwartz will come in with a humongous roller deck and help Carlyle bring in assets to bring investor confidence. Save me for my question. I'll look at my rolodex when you do talk. So do you want to look downtown that a Goldman because I think the point you're making here is Harvey Schwartz, the second act here, over at Carlisle, banker turned private equity executive is a very rare thing. So that's what I was going to get to. They were looking at internal candidates as well. So this is a very big deal. From the Carlyle perspective. And you look over at Goldman Sachs, and of course, the pressure is mounting. So you have a Goldman partnership down in Miami now. It's their kind of annual meeting here that they don't, you know, annual retreat, if you will, of 400 or so partners. And yeah, the pressure is on, the morale has been hit, of course, because they had a big wave of layoffs. The scuttle is really that over at the other banks, they laid off fewer people, but they took a bigger hit to pay. So it's a tradeoff that Goldman made, you have to hope if you're a Goldman banker and if you're at the top of Goldman that that was the right choice, they're heading into investor day in a couple of weeks from now. They're planning, we're planning very little hints on what they might say at that kind of an investor day. Are they going to create new targets that are big and snazzy or are they going to say a lot more of the same, which is that consumer is shrinking and that they have to change with their balance sheet looks like, which to the point that Tom was making is the point that they're making here in that William Cohen essay in the Financial Times over the weekend. And earnings as well coming out tomorrow and I believe Thursday as well for Apollo and Aries. What are we expecting? So yeah, the big week for private asset firms. Tomorrow's Carlisle and KKR, the Thursday is Aries and Apollo. People forget Aries, founded by Tony ressler. He it's bigger than Carlisle by market value now. I would have never guessed it. It's because you know what? After post 2008, these private credit firms have created such a big presence. Credit markets. And it's largely going on noticed. Let's assume that Schwartz has a paragraph in there. I haven't talked to mister Rubenstein. It says you can't go back to gold and if the slot opens up, is John waldron, who I've never heard a negative word about full disclosure, does John waldron just the heir apparent at Goldman or can that be a more complex study? You know, I used to be more complex. They used to say that if David loves sooner than John would be the person to take over and the bench under John was really big, but think about it. Things have changed so much recently. The rack of people under John has shuffled a lot and there's a lot of questions about performance and a lot of those businesses. John is the absolute heir apparent. I don't know how else to put it. I mean, he's one of the most well-known and most recognizable bankers across Wall Street and across the globe. He's the person that is absolutely in London, meeting with the government officials in Asia. He's flying around the world constantly. So, you know, John is definitely somebody to watch. He was somebody that was approached for the Carlisle job as we've reported. And is certainly amazing. The second rank of all these banks, whether it's John cruzan, John waldron, Mark mason, they are becoming extraordinarily interesting this year, and that's Morgan Stanley's former COO that left Citigroup's chief operating officer into the president of Goldman Sachs. Right now his basis, Lucas in commodities, Goldman Sachs, and lawyers in compliance. You should hear him. You have
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Real travel revolution that we need to wait for? Well, I think all of these technologies are happening The pace at which they happen. I think actually is going to depend a lot on the regulatory authorities. The Joby tech in terms of flight range in terms of sound is extraordinary. I got to experience it myself. And obviously the certification process is going to be the most important factor in bringing this technology to bear. And with aurora as well, we're thrilled to be working with them both on the trucking side and the rod share side. And I think it's about safety first and the technology leaps that we're seeing there are super encouraging. So these are two best debris teams along with lime, who is the leader in terms of e-bikes and scooters in the world. And we have strategic investments in each of these very important areas. And we love our investments because we've made the investments in what we believe are the best teams at the leading teams in each area. Shahi there from Uber, coming up on the open, we're gonna get back to rates as we watch the ten year continue to climb right now at three 81 28 Priya mizra joins us of TD securities, gerson distant feld of alliance Bernstein and Andrew slimmon of Morgan Stanley on the open. This is Bloomberg. Now with your news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. Kayleigh, Matt, thank you very much, President Biden as approved a state of emergency as
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Brian as I always am so delighted to do from Bloomberg world headquarters in New York City. So I'm going right back to you, mister Brian Curtis, because I want to know a lot of different forces hitting markets. It's the last part of the year, but there's still a lot going on, even if the markets are quiet. Stronger than expected GDP, a big revision, that hit U.S. stocks. What does it mean for the Asia trade? Well, let's focus first on what happened in the U.S. because we had a number of data points initial jobless claims rising less than forecast in the latest week. So to strengthen the labor market, reflected there. Third quarter GDP revised up to 3.2%, personal consumption revised up as well, advancing 2.3% in the latest report compared to an earlier estimate of 1.7%. And then on top of that, we had the key inflation gauge, the PCE price index, excluding food and energy rising and annualized 4.7% in the third quarter, and that was also higher than the previous estimate, and it just sort of ushers in the point even further the fed will likely stay higher for longer, so the S&P 500 down one and a half percent, the NASDAQ with all its tech stocks that are supposedly because their long duration stocks or assets much more much more in trouble when you see higher interest rates. Anyway, the NASDAQ was down 2.2%. That's fed through to Asia. The EK off 1.4% at the ASX dropping 1.1%, the cost down 1.7%. Some new markets just opening up the straight times index is trading 17 points lower. The Thai X is down 226 points, a drop of 1.6%, and China futures are down right around 1% or so, hangs in index futures down 2.1%. So it's a rough day, a little bit of give back. We did have some pretty decent gains in Asia, particularly in Hong Kong and China yesterday, and today's day to take some profits, I guess. Kathleen, to you. Well, let's get a little bit more kind of on the big picture view of what happened in the stock market today as you sing. They fell down. And kind of surprising in a way because you got good data, right? Oh, good. Economy's doing better. Why not buy stocks? Well, if you're worried about the fed tightening and not being forced to cut rates and when and if a recession starts, it was not a good day. Data released on the labor market on growth in the third quarter showed signs of a resilient economy. And that just goes to show the fed may have even longer to go with these rate hikes keeping them high longer to get inflation finally down. TD securities head of global rate strategy Priya mizra says that despite these fears, the consumer still has power. Today's data as well as other data we've had is suggesting that the consumer is still very strong. So I think that that tells you that the fed may have to keep hiking. I think they're going to slow down the pace. And I think it's unclear whether they go another 50 or do they downshift to 25, but I think today's data is telling us that the consumer has a lot more strength than I think what the market was pricing in. To be specific, initial weekly jobless claims rose less than forecasts if they didn't rise as much as you thought it shows they're still strength in the labor market and GDP was revised to 3.2% in the third quarter from 2.9% again firmer consumer spending. So a big move up from what was reported before, Brian. Yeah. Well, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is looking to crack down even further on companies that do not abide by its rules, SEC chief Gary gensler spoke, saying the agency's patience is wearing thin. The remarks came just hours after the watchdog sued two more individuals associated with the FTX collapse. Genzler warned of a number of practices in focus for the agency. The biggest being crypto firms financial record keeping, which he says falls short of the disclosures needed to protect investors. All right, Brian, let's get a look now at global news, luckily, on
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Council. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a fed roundtable with Neil Grossman, Priya mizra and Danielle dimartino booth. Some of the frustration with the fed, I think, remains next year because we're going to look for the fed to eat and I think they're going to struggle to be with inflation still high next year. Speaking of frustration with the fed let me bring in Neil Grossman here. And first, let me say, you got to differentiate between how you feel about the fed what the fed should be doing in your take and what you expect if that actually to do. Very fed up by the way. And in a couple of things. First of all, as you know, I don't think they've been hawkish. They barely done anything in the way they should have, because I call it, as you know, infinitesimal incrementalism. They haven't even done one Volcker yet as far as I'm concerned. Paul Volcker raised rates 4% intermediate on a weekend. That would have been something. And I'm sorry for you, but they don't haven't done quantitative tightening either. Letting something slowly drip drip away. After they bought a 130 billion a month for ten years, is not tightening. So I mean, yes, there are effects, but to be honest with you, I would stop tightening now and announce this afternoon that I'm going to start selling bonds at a clip of 50 to a 100 billion a month. That would be effective per se. Now, what are they going to do or not? I'm not going to disagree too much. Other than I think the thing you need to watch or consider is the liquidity. I'm going to push back as hard as I possibly can about quantitative tightening not taking place. Now, there's something called the employee retention credit in the 9 months through November. It injected a 120 plus $1 billion into the economy, so there is still stimulus money running
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That's a Bloomberg business flash. I've never seen bremo so fired up for a fed decision. Yes, I'm so just unreal. It's just unreal. The countdown to the fed decision. That's right now. It's one 32. This is a special edition of Bloomberg surveillance with Tom king, Jonathan bell, and Lisa ronalds. Bloomberg surveillance, the fed designs. Life from New York City for our audience worldwide good afternoon, good afternoon, the countdown to the fed decision does begin right now a chairman pound news conference just around the corner about 60 minutes from now. Going into this equities down 6 tenths of 1% on the S&P, Thomas, the most important fed decision since the last one. And so the next one. Let's get serious about this, John. There could be a bombshell your markets could move. We'll have all that over the next good two hours or so, but we really got to drive to December and frankly, I'm through January to February 1st. I love what Michael McKee said moments ago with curti where he talked about strategic ambiguity, that perfectly captures what we're going to see. This is the challenge, isn't it, Brahma, we've talked about it over the last couple of weeks. How do you signal you might be stepping down in the size of your interest rate hikes from 75, perhaps the 50? That's implied by the dot plot anyway. So I'm not sure how big that will actually be. Without triggering a premature esca financial conditions before you've really become convinced that inflation is on its way back down to 2%. Maybe they're being too cute about this. I was actually thinking a lot about this. And how quickly they've raised rates. And I went back to the 1980s when they actually were raising rates at a similar type of pace. And in one month alone, in November of 1980, they raised rates by 4.25 percentage points in just that month. So why are they not just going big and then going home? Why are not that just going big and then stopping? Why are they sort of like dripping it out and all this communication? Have they done that already? To be honest with you. They've done 300 basis points from March through September into October. We're looking for another 75 today. Tom, we went and looked at the dot plot the last time they came out with projections. Across the board. No projections this time, Tom. You'll have to wait until December for that, but they've done a lot in a short amount of time. They have this goes back to Arthur burns. We had Greenspan measured 25 25 up down sideways, whatever, mostly down mostly lower rates within the realm. We've gone back to what some like Richard Clare to study, which is Arthur burns with substantial moves. And then, of course, the idea is we come off that at some point, where at some point. Try not to have 6 tenths of 1% on the S&P, let's whip through it. I'll get some P 500 negative 6 tenths of 1% on the NASDAQ with down about one full percentage point. In the bond market shape and up as follows yield to totally unchanged, Lisa, just north of 4% on a ten year 4.036% right now. Who wants to get ahead of this freight train? Who trades on fed days? Let's be honest. I mean, who's going to say, yeah, whatever happens. Let's get ahead of it. Okay, how many? You trade on fed days until you lose money three fed meetings in a row and then you never do it again. So you think that no one would be trading because it's always the wrong response. Am I wrong? What you want me to say? How many people are trading on fed day? You think I've got nothing. A lot of people. People are in its hazardous year portfolio. It is difficult. Do you like to go through the promo? Because we're leaving the former fed vice chair. All right. Let's coming up. We do have someone who has got a lot more illuminating things to say than I do. Former Visa fed chair vice chair rich claret elbie joining us momentarily currently at Columbia University. Tom will tell us all about his bow tie and how it connects to rich clarita coming up. We also hear from TD TD securities Priya mizra. She will be joining us and they will both be taking us up to the fed rate decision at 2 p.m. eastern followed by immediate reaction by KPMG's Diane swank and Guggenheim's Scott minard and finally breaking down the chair's news conference with some post it Powell commentary, Bank of America's Michael gapen, evidently was not scared away from earlier this morning. And BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg, a fantastic lineup, and I'm really excited to hear what rich clarita has to say, Tom, not only about what to expect coming up, but also about the mandate of the Federal Reserve in a moment where inflation is at the forefront of the concerns. That's where we want to go to the mandate right now. There seems to be front and center, although doctor Clare has much more to say, he is a former vice chair of the Federal Reserve system. And of course, associated with Columbia, rich just for you today I wore a gift from Ned Phelps from years ago, a Columbia University, bow tie, as you leather economics program, which Claire, I'm going to cut to the chase. You are footnoted with senator Warren in other worries about a single mandate fed. There is the single mandate of inflation. There is a published dual mandate in Steve roach would say there's a triple mandate, which is the idea of asset size. How many mandates does your own Powell face today? Well, well, thank you for having me on. There is a dual mandate, but the point being is that inflation is way too high and it's the chair and other members of the committee has indicated the only way to have sustainable maximum employment is with price stability. And so I think as long as inflation remains elevated and weigh above the fed's target, it's really going to be focused on getting inflation down. In addition, members of the committee, including the chair of indicated that there have been some post pandemic changes in the labor market and the level of unemployment consistent with price stability has probably risen. It's difficult to know how much. So I think for the foreseeable and future, so till we see progress on inflation, the fed is really focused on getting inflation down. Rich clarita, this is all operative off the Phillips curve from long ago and far away at the London school of economics is the Phillips curve. This relationship of labor and inflation is at operative today. Well, certainly Phillips curves are not laws of physics. They can induce shift around and I think likely we have seen a shift in the level of unemployment consistent with price stability. I think we've also seen evidence of a change in the slope of the Phillips curve. So certainly if I were back in my old job, I wouldn't be relying very much on that right now. Rich if you were back in that room over the last couple of days, can you help us understand how this fed would navigate this conundrum? Signaling you're open to smaller rate hikes without triggering a premature easing of financial conditions. How'd you go about doing something like that in the news conference? No, I agree it is a challenge, you know, John the way I see it is that coming out of the September meeting when I was fortunate enough to be on your set, you know, the chair delivered a hawkish 70 5. The dots also shifted up since then the inflation data is actually been worse. It's been higher than they would like. Including the employment cost index and the CPI. And so as a consequence, the market pricing for the terminal rate has shifted up. I think that's appropriate. I don't think he will push back on that today, but I also think the chair will want to have the option and the committee will want to have the option based on the data between now and the December meeting to downshift. So I think he will want to leave that option open, but I don't think he will push back against the idea that the terminal rate may be higher in this cycle because the inflation data has been worse. What are you looking for today, Rach, what do you want to hear from fed chair Jay Powell? Well, I do think that I do think right now coming into this meeting, they're probably not unhappy with market pricing in the sense that as I look at my screens, the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Necessary print for the fed, but it's not sufficient. We need to see a lot more. We are entering, I think, a new phase in the inflation debate. We have still relatively cautious given the ultimate outlook and trajectory for the economy. If the fed is expecting to bring inflation back down to 2%, growth is secondary inflation is in focus. This idea of peak inflation, that's just a math problem to us. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abraham always. Good morning, everyone, Jonathan Ferrell. Alicia brownson Tom Keenan radio on television after a bang up jobs report after obeying up CPI report a vix under 20 every strategist adjusts. Lisa, this weekend, the publishing is going to be fascinating. Especially pushing back against some of the expectations that the fed's going to back away from the rate hiking when the fed officials are saying, we're not going to back away from the rate hiking. So how do you get this sort of disbelief that you're seeing in markets that's helping to fuel this optimism? We have an absolute perfect guest for you if you're in the equity market and going Katie Kaminsky coming up here and Lisa, I'm going to leave with Michael pervis over at tall back in this morning. He says, look, an abrupt move to SPX 4400 so much of that yesterday were up futures up 12 right now. I mean, it's happening in real time. I know, and he's not alone. There are a lot of people who've been talking about how there are more potential upside, which raises an issue. Is this still the bear market rally that so many people have said, do people like this rally more now? Is there a more conviction behind it? Because it hasn't felt like a lot of conviction every single person has come on this show and said, Finn trading, not that many volumes. It's August. What are we doing here? Kayleigh Ryan's got the short straw here, no surprise with that. Kayleigh said, well, I'll follow the fed speak. I said, good luck. I mean, the fed dissonance with the market in our cayley's extraordinary. It's like they're in two different worlds, Tom, because you've seen the metamorphosis of Neil kashkari once a dove now a hawk saying he thinks they're going to get out to 4.4% by the end of 2023. They are not done hiking. Charlie Evans, agreeing with him saying inflation is still unacceptably high, indicating they're going to keep going, and yet the equity market seems like they're staring them down and saying, yeah, no, we don't buy that. I mean, I look at it, Lisa, look at what's published over the after the CPI report, I should say, and The Economist Ben emmons. I thought was great on strategy where he said, and this is your Wheelhouse at Lisa. It's a double barreled short squeeze, both bonds, price up, yield down and stocks, price up, are getting squeezed right now. I think this is remarkable. Can we say it's the revenge of the 60 40 that didn't work at all during the first half of the year? Well, I didn't think of that. That's right. And now it's working in reverse gangbusters, perhaps because people have gotten pretty confident on that side of the screen. Can you Kaminsky so important to the data check? Lisa's going to dash. I say dash to the brief here in a moment, fish is up 12 Dow futures up one 34. NASA green, I mean, I'm sorry, small caps as well. Russell leading the way up four tenths of a percent of 19.91 in the yield space, a lesser curve inversion, nevertheless, a big deal, 41 Priya mizra basis points, dollar weaker is of important note Sterling, a one 22 zero 6. We'll see on that. Lisa, with an auction brief. Something like that. And just to sort of reiterate what Brian Weinstein said from Morgan Stanley earlier that you could see a yield curve inversion in that particular spread that is a hundred basis points of inversion. That would be basically compared to the bulker era where you saw negative two 50 to 40. How much do we get back to that? So here's what we're watching. 8 30 a.m., we get a U.S. initial jobless claims. Do we see some of those layoffs? Continue to pick up as well as PPI for the month of July. This is the prices that manufacturers and the factories pay. How much do we see a lagging behind in terms of how much you get a softening effect in the PPI? In other words, our consumers paying less, but companies still paying more to manufacture the goods. This speaks to the margin compression that a lot of people are expecting to happen later this year. At 1 p.m., here it is, Tom. The key point of the whole day, the U.S. is selling $21 billion of 30 year notes. The distinction of 30 year notes from 7 year notes is that they last for 30 years and that they pay out rather than 7 year, but it also is a key metric of how much people have conviction that we're going to get that down to 2% level. And that it is a note of safety. Lisa, this is important, zero hedge led with this last night. A Goldman Sachs note of, I'm going to call it insatiable. I'm not knowledgeable enough. Lisa, in your world, is it insatiable demand for paper? Well, certainly yesterday, the ten year auction did suggest that. And there are so many people saying, it is a buy if you see yields above 2% at a time when the fed is really committed to getting inflation down there. And the longer we persist in this kind of environment, the slower growth we have going forward over the longer term. These are some of the issues that not only economists are looking at in traders, but also the fed officials who are coming out and trying to jawbone this market in a direction that it does not want to go. 7 30 p.m., we hear from San Francisco fed president Mary Daly. She's speaking in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg television and Tom, she has come out. She has said we have a lot more work to do. When does the market pay attention or is the market right? And fed officials are going to backpedal much quick work quickly than they think. This is really important now. We're going to jump to the equity markets here with Katie Kaminsky. She's chief research strategist at alpha simplex. And what's so important is you can't pronounce your focus at the Massachusetts institute of technology. Stochastic processes stomping rules and investment heuristics. I've
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Paul. I'm Karen, thanks so much to your yield up 20 basis points .20%. 3.24%, the curve inversion is extraordinary, good morning Priya mizra at TD securities. Absolutely nailed that call futures at negative 41. And what's so important is to understand it 8 three zero zero zero, this became our most important interview of the day. Yes, Mike McKee is now had time to filter in the stunning jobs report the opinion of people respect of all different opinions. Let's go to the Jackson hole ish like theory out there, which is Waller versus summers. What does this report mean for soft landing versus let's move? So we don't have a hard landing. It probably tips the scale a little bit in terms of soft landing, but the question is, does it tempt the fed to do more than necessary because they know they can? So you can make an argument either way in terms of the summer's Waller argument. It's a point in terms of Chris Waller because we saw the job openings rate fall, the jolts numbers fall, and then the unemployment rate fell instead of going up, which is what Larry argued. But if the margin. The margin this makes the fed's next move wicked easy is mayor. No. I would disagree with that. Because we don't know where inflation is going. We didn't have a drop in average hourly earnings. Not the best total measure of whether we're going to have a problem with inflation expectations, but we will get CPI next week. We'll have PCI at the PCE at the end of the month, and we have another CPI before we get to the fed meeting. The fed has to take all of that. Fire. Well, the job market is on fire. We have seen other indicators showing slowing in manufacturing and certainly in housing. I looked and it's a little complicated because they separate out mortgage bankers from real estate agents. The people who are attached to the real estate new housing mortgage industry, they lost a few thousand jobs. So maybe we're beginning to see the impact of the rising rates. I'm seeing some Goldilocks folks on my Twitter feed come out of their holes and say, hey, things are not that bad. Things are good. I mean, we've got a strong labor economy. I've got gasoline is only $4 and 11 cents a gallon down from 5. Things are pretty good out there. We'll have the fed's going to do what it needs to do for core inflation. But some of the other stuff is coming back and I got a job and my wages are going up and things are pretty good. Yeah, there's a matching dynamic at work here and we'll see if this feeds a week from today. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. And we'll see if it feeds into that and we see consumer feelings about how the economy is doing now and what the outlook is, go up in a political context, obviously good for Joe Biden if this is happening early enough, but what we've seen is people saying, my life's okay, but the rest of the country is going to heck. And now maybe they changed their minds. And start to think things are getting better. And then you start thinking, well, maybe that goes to spend more money, and then we have an inflation problem. A long way around back to what? It's not easy for the fed. All right, I'm coming in to work next week. But permeating this discussion might be key. Is if there's inflation and we're trying to get rates back to normal, the next move of 25 beeps or 50 beeps or 70 feet 5 beeps, just got a whole lot easier to do. They're not going to crush anybody with a September 1 rate increase, right? Unless we get a huge drop in inflation. Fair. But if we get if we get the kind of inflation numbers we're figure figuring, you're right. Well, you look at what the market's already priced in the 5 minutes after the jobs report there. They already said, well, look up to see where the feds terminal rate is going to be. Why are Jersey throw out the 4% number higher? And that's the first time I've heard that. I don't like you. You know, it's sweet. I mean, you know, the guy who said we got to go to 4% is Jim bullard, you know? Give him his props and he will be joining us when Jackson hole. Good. Maybe by that time he's in 5%. Of Bloomberg economics looks brilliant this morning. She's out. But Mike, I think this is just so, so important, all that matters here is Padres Dodgers. I mean, I'm sorry. It's the first series of the weekend. I'm staying up late tonight to watch this. Imagine that is actually going to be a very good series to watch. But I note that you have not mentioned another team that didn't do as well as the trade deadline and has been. Well, if the trade. Well, we've got lines. Marty Walsh is coming up. And my question was, are there going to be layoffs at the Red Sox? I don't know. I don't know if you saw, but the governor of New Hampshire said yesterday that the Red Sox need to fire the front office. You need to fire the manager to cover your political thing now in New England. That's how big this is. You stand up and go run and see John farrow in brief Farrell on this so he can get it right when he has very much the same thing. Secretary of labor coming up here with John Farrell always important he'll have a lot to talk about. Paul, in 30 seconds. I thought xav Lev, it Warner Brothers discovered yesterday was mesmerizing. Can he pull this cultural? I don't know. I don't know. It's tough. Martin pierce is a new Bloomberg opinion columnist at Bloomberg. He's had years, decades of experience at The Wall Street Journal and other things covering media. He's going to join Matt Miller and I later today because he's got a column out today saying, I don't know if mister zaslav has got it right here. This is the time to change here and it's all about streaming. And you're pulling content back? That'll be an important interview in the 10 o'clock hour for your living room in your streaming future. A bang up jobs report stay with us so much going on. This is Bloomberg. I was so we could we could fly. This is your summer. That means 6 flags in the taste of an ice cold Coca-Cola. We're talking thrilling coasters, delicious burgers. Real moments together and this. Coke is summer
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On the market. Breaking market news and inside from Bloomberg experts. Politicians almost always want lower interest rates. The fed's going to keep on fighting. It's the macroeconomic headwinds that are really worrying here. Value continues to break hard. Now people think of cash as being dirty. No one wants to touch it. This is Bloomberg markets. When Paul Sweeney had met Miller. On Bloomberg radio. All right, coming up in this half hour. We're going to take a look at Walmart stocks. That about 9% today we're going to check in with Putin Boyle. She covers all things retail for Bloomberg intelligence at the latest there. Plus Brad Evans, senior VP and portfolio manager at heartland advisers. We're talking about small cap stocks, active values of time to take a look in this market. But first let's go to Greg Jarrett, get a Bloomberg business match Stocks downfall, economic barometer, Walmart as you just indicated took a hit after the surprise cut to its outlook. UPS slumped as package deliveries are down more than expected, the tech heavy NASDAQ is continuing to underperform with giant Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet set to report their numbers after the market closed. Treasury yields are down and the dollar is up. Priya mizra TD securities tells Bloomberg to pressure is on the fed to put on the brakes and the market she thinks she's ready for that. I think the fed may be forced to keep going here, is inflation is still very high in the unemployment rate is still low. So I don't think they're going to signal that they are very close to being done with the hiking cycle. I think that's it's really the forward guidance or the messaging about future hikes that will be focused on. I think this 75 is essentially all priced in. The S&P is down 7 tenths of percent down 27. The Dow's down two tenths of a percent down 62 and the NASDAQ is down 1.3% at a 152. The ten year is up 1230 seconds, the yield is 2.75%. West Texas intermediate crude's up 6 tenths of a percent at 97 27 a barrel while comics gold is down in tenth of a percent. At 1735 60 announced the dollar Ann one 36 58. The Euro a dollar O one 33 in the British ground that dollar 20 51. That is a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now Matt Miller and Paul swim. All right, Greg Jared
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Church of Davos for those of you on radio it is a spectacular valley shot looking down to Italy and over to our east really quite close is Austria We are nestled down in the southeast corner of Switzerland Nestlé here as well or too many looking at the Sunday crises we face right now Last week a crisis in the market even yesterday afternoon in crisis where crisis free this morning a report from Kaylee lions Yeah no real crisis is evident at this point in the future session Tom but we have rolled over from the earlier gains Right now S&P 500 futures right around lows of the session down about 16 points or so You're starting to see as that plays out a little bit more of a bid coming into the treasury market the ten year yield down two basis points just shy of two 73 but you're definitely seeing some larger action taking place in foreign exchange It is a stronger dollar story today stronger against everything in G ten the Bloomberg dollar index up about four tenths of 1% As for some of the more micro stories that are out there of course the one that captured all of our focus yesterday was snap out with a profit warning warning on a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment weighing on advertising the stock was down 43% yesterday as a result It sounded another 6 tenths of a percent in pre market trading this morning Other stories that are out there include Nordstrom which actually raised its outlook showing a bit more resiliency for the higher end consumer in the face of inflation It's up 4% until brothers also getting a lift to the tune of about two percentage points even after cutting its deliveries outlook for the year commentary around the impact of higher mortgage rates cooling some demand from the unprecedented pace we have seen in the housing market over the last two years Tom Cary thank you so much Greatly appreciate it this morning A conversation that we would always have in New York and I know the global Wall Street leans forward when Priya mizra speaks She's had a global rate strategy at TD securities and within the calculus of full faith and credit finds a point where we are in what James bullard would call a new regime Priya what is our new regime So we've had a bunch of regimes actually this year I think the first part of the rate move was led by the front end was inflation Then we have the long end starting to get engaged which was because of quantitative tightening And what I'm arguing in a third regime because now the rates market is starting to price in growth concerns Which is why the yield curve has steepened interest rates have fallen led by that front end I think as people are seeing the tightening in financial conditions and we've started to see some signs of interest sensitive sectors slowing I think now the market is saying well the fed may be overdoing it And therefore they may not be able to hike much above neutral That's why I think cross asset correlations have come back and I think they're here to stay I think growth concerns are front and center The markets.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The sell off in U.S. stocks has resumed the S&P has now sunk 20% from January's high and it is set now to enter an official bear market the benchmark loss As much as 1.7% just shy of that definition of a bear market but it is there now At the end of another volatile week price swings are likely to be exacerbated by the monthly expiration of options tied to equities and exchange traded funds the S&P is now headed for its 7th weekly decline and that would make it the longest losing streak since the dot com bubble burst more than two decades ago it will be just its fourth streak of 7 or more weekly losses in the post World War II period That's according to bespoke investment group Priya mizra TD security tells Bloomberg there are some concerns the fed will overdo tightening She says they're walking a very tight rope When we get to neutrals around two and a half on the funds rate there's the fed at that point say inflation is too high and we have to get to three and a half four I think then a recession is very lightly Or do they say that inflation is heading somewhat lower and therefore we can tolerate slightly higher inflation and they actually slow down the pace of rate highs I think that's the big decision that the fed will have to make And that's going to determine whether we head into a slowdown or a full recession The S&P is now down 1.7% down 66 The Dow is down 1.4% down 432 and the NASDAQ is down 2.4% down 271 The ten year is up 1430 seconds with the yield of 2.78% West Texas intermediate crude oil is up two tenths of a percent at a $112 46 cents per barrel Comics gold is down at tenth of a percent of 1846 30 and ouch That's a Bloomberg business flash more balance of power in our David Westin on Bloomberg radio We.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Incredible rising price in oil comes a lot of talk about stagflation as well as recession We're going to talk in just a moment to Priya mizra She is the head of the rates strategy at TD securities And then later on in the program we're going to talk with Gary Schilling he is a Bloomberg opinion writer but of course basically started the job of chief market economist at Merrill Lynch about 50 years ago So we'll get his take on this Right now let's get over to Greg Jarrett with your Bloomberg business flash Greg Everything is going up I had some chicken vindaloo on Friday you know 25% increase from just two weeks earlier stocks are down Amid concerns about inflation and the recession possibly as the Biden administration is Wayne sanctions on Russians oil and energy products Let's take a look at the S&P down 1.4% down 59 The Dow is down 1.2% down 407 and the NASDAQ's down 1.6% down 218 The tenure is down 6 30 seconds the yield is 1.75% West Texas intermediate goods up 2.3% at a $118 27 cents per barrel comics gold is up 8 tenths of a percent at 1982 even per ounce the Valerie Anne won 1535 The Euro a dollar 8 71 the British founded 31 36 Nickel has surged as much as 40% of the one of the most extreme price moves ever seen on the London metal exchange as fears over supplies from Russia lead buyers exposed to this historic squeeze That is a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now Generally basic and Magnolia Greg Jarrett.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"priya mizra" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg world headquarters I'm Charlie Pelé best level of the day for the U.S. stock market the Dow the S&P nez stack all advancing S&P at a record of 31 points right now 47 13 on the S&P up by 7 tenths of 1% extending the year to date gain now on the S&P of 25.5% Stocks that are record after the biggest jump in retail sales since March results from industry giants Walmart Home Depot showing robust demand even as inflation squeezes purchasing power The bond market is misunderstanding the Federal Reserve by building interest rate increases into the short end of the yield curve starting as early as mid 2022 amid elevated inflation this according to Priya mizra TD securities USA was interviewed this morning on Bloomberg surveillance It's not obvious to us that the fed has to allow international civilians to be actually at the close rate hike much later than the time when the market's pricing is difficult You know the front end staying a lot more anchored but it's ultimately a view on the army and the outfit will be following me as we recover into this course Free on mister of TV security's USA We've got the tender down two 30 seconds ten year yield right now 1.62% spot coal down 7 tenths of 1% down $12 the ounce of 1850 West Texas intermediate crude flat 80 80 to barrel the big story though natural gas surging 4.9% right now 5 26 per million BTUs Bitcoin a dropping 5.7% 60,260 right now on Bitcoin Home Depot posted stronger than expected results in the third quarter assign increase North American spending on home improvement continues to stretch through the pandemic on the O share's surging 5.9% Walmart after earnings again down two and a half percent Stocks fire S&P up 7 tenths I'm Charlie paddle.