17 Burst results for "Preston Pysche"

"preston pysche" Discussed on Bitcoin Audible

Bitcoin Audible

05:42 min | Last week

"preston pysche" Discussed on Bitcoin Audible

"Air conditioning. And better hours and better vacation time gets easier and easier. that is the natural deflation and that not only. Do we definitely want that. We don't want an economy does anything but that that's the whole point of an economy if you if you don't get the reward of being able to make more stuff and having better quality stuff the halloween doing it. It's not like we go to work just because we like to work. Point is to make your life better. Thank god we actually have bitcoin to potentially transition us which is what we are seeing back to real prices and now this is already gone too long. This is where this is where the really interesting thing happens. And i really want to actually reached out to preston pysche To come on the show. Because i want him to break down this concept of the over collateralisation and the real interest rates. Because this is something that. I've been thinking about for a while. But i don't think i know the intricacies of The debt markets in the the collateralized loan markets. Well enough to kind of articulate this right now. But i want to do some digging. I'd love to be able to ask him some questions about it. So if you wanna Bombard him on twitter and helped me out to get breast and fish on the show. I would love you. Don't don't annoy the snot out of him. Bought him pass from a little bit but the the fact that will actually get like we have horribly horribly manipulated interest rates right now right and the price of time is one of the most critical prices in the economy. So if you manipulate the price of the interest of the price of time the price of capital you spend today versus actually producing and saving for the future you manipulate you manipulate and corrupt the value of everything. Everything is dependent on the price of time. The interest rate is one of the most important prices in the economy. And you describe everything if you just start arbitrarily dictating what that is so and even more is the interest rate cannot go up on. This was actually a for the for the us government. It cannot go up. There was.

preston pysche twitter one today halloween
"preston pysche" Discussed on Bitcoin Audible

Bitcoin Audible

03:22 min | Last week

"preston pysche" Discussed on Bitcoin Audible

"Place. You'd like paris london. Tokyo newyork seven cisco many former residents. Like chicago's black. Middle class have left to make their future elsewhere. Many who still work in those cities or forced into intolerably long commutes as the middle class dwindles. It leaves behind a marginal airlines population. Who depend on the city for a livelihood but often can barely get by but likely no longer and of course wherever this high skilled newly mobile capital cu labor re congregates. All other forms of work will be viable as well. This need not be understood at surface level as an elitist prediction but rather as baby steps toward feasible localism. At long last physical capital still matters clearly so does cultural capital. These are so obvious as to be weird to need to point out but those in a position to extract protection rinse physical capital likely with the lure of cultural capital will need to adjust to this new reality. Sticks are out. carrots are in. What are you gonna do about it. Build a wall. Good luck with that. A tweet from swan bitcoin. Miami mayor francis soiree says quote. We're looking at creating a regulatory framework that makes us the easiest place in the us to do business in cryptocurrencies. We are looking at being able to make payments in crypto in bitcoin in particular being able to pay your taxes re tweet from preston pysche the race amongst jurisdictions to attract bitcoin into their local domains is upon us. Most elected officials haven't realized they are in a race of epic proportions. But for those who have big benefits in the remarkable essay economic consequences of organized. Violence historian frederic lane emphasizes the importance of sovereign competition in using and controlling violence in an era of more mobile capital than we are used to today quote if all the tribute was used for conspicuous consumption. The term which seems particularly appropriate for the court of prince of the ancient regime growth was slowed by lack of investment merchants. Who gained protection rents from trade and colonization. Although not entirely inconspicuous consumption probably had a lower propensity to consume. If so lower profits for governments and higher profits for trading enterprises meant more capital accumulation and more growth mcneil similarly observes that in the wake of the eleventh century upsurge of venetian and genoese private commercial activity in the mediterranean quote rulers of old fashioned command societies were simply unable to dominate behavior. As thoroughly as in earlier times peddlers and merchants made themselves useful to rulers and subjects alike and could now safeguard themselves against taxation and robbery by finding refuge in one or another port of call along the caravan route and seaways where local rulers had to not to overtax the trade upon which their income and power had.

preston pysche eleventh century today francis soiree paris london Miami genoese Tokyo newyork venetian mayor mediterranean frederic chicago bitcoin cisco seven
"preston pysche" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

07:05 min | 2 weeks ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Bigger and bigger so one of the things that i was expecting you to talk about when we were thinking about games that was his whole intergenerational thing. 'cause that was a that was an undercurrent that you saw there I don't watch all the capitol hill stuff. I don't know how much that was on display. But this whole sort of like you know. Not only is it demand that we're sticking to but there's this sense that You know boomers. They made out like bandits. And you know the millennials. They're getting stuck with the with the the bag of talk to me about that. Would how how. How do you see that in the whole game. stop thing. Yeah there's there's a great chart the other day Which was boomers on majority of of assets. Right it's no gen xers on like a tiny bit more than oils on like nothing. And it's really the same thing on the micro structure level as it is on the macro level where you're cornered the market assets in leverage in if rates rise. You know that's all blows up. But they what happens at the end of cycles. Everyone's like what happens with boomer sell what happens what we expect. A crazy euphoria when the flow is this big like the incremental causes in a symmetric. Eighteen times move in market cap. You you think there would be a blow off top and then retail would lever up chase it right. We're we're kind of seeing that now in. I never thought it would get like a ymer level but now like we're getting there like it's kinda crazy when you look at the amount of debt in the narratives change to if you look if you what you're reading all these articles people now. No okay keisha recovery. This is completely unfair. I don't know how we change this. And they just keep doing the same thing. And there's this underlying contingent of people if you if you're paying attention they're like they. Now get why cryptos in i. I'm really if you even dig deeper. Preston pysche said something mind. He's like if you actually look at the interest rates you can get in crypto by essentially like are being buying spot in selling futures like an easy riskless fifteen twenty percent and he goes what happens if what if that is actually the real market interest rate of where things should be really fascinating thought experiment. The fed is basically stomped at all riskier. But in this completely free market over here with finite supply and increasing demand you can manufacture like really yield there. And i think that's just the giant arm and who does the best model sailor. He issues debt to unfunded pensions at zero percent rates. In then buy something with such finite supply that has a genuine yield with incremental dollars. Moving in. he's he's a twenty first century bank issuing debt to unfunded pensions and buying something. That's highly inflationary sensitive. I mean that. That's brilliant. And i think a lot of people are going to tag onto this eventually. This is where it actually undermines the us dollar at some point. People do this forever. But we'll see this next decision by the fed is the biggest decision ever. It really is would look. What would meeting are you thinking about. It's either like the next time eating. I don't know the exact date but it's either euchre control in you. Just say we're gonna just make inflation happened inflated with the debts or you say we have a free market and i think they're not gonna choose a free market. It's not a free market. Everybody like it's. it's so obvious. It's not a free market at this point. If pockets of little capitalism happening for the most part it's not market so this next one will will be china. Are we going to be america. And i think they're gonna choose china so let me unpack this for one second outlet. I'll play devil's advocate so We went to war against the the nazis and japanese Italians one but there was a huge amount of debt associated with that and then there was also the You know the demobilisation the bed. That's when they first came in and they did yield curve control. They said that's it. You know capping rates at that. Point knowing batted in. I back then. Everyone accepted it for what it wasn't no bad things happen. We had the the the baby boom. That's when the baby boomers were born. Why don't we go back. Is it possible that. That's the future of for america is going back to another boom like we had the it's conceivable and i think you have to incentivize the entrepreneurs in the real the real people in in your pockets capitalism because that's happening certain places in there there is real innovation but on on the whole growth is stagnating in my opinion. And that's why you see. Basically everyone is forced into at the end of the cycle. Last growing thinks it creates those bubble leg hurt wightman tallies. But i think we could. You know if if the entrepreneurs are that good and the money flows to to the venture guys. We'll see they got to come up with something pretty good with the baby boom now. We have a baby the baby rolling over it right so we'll see that. Join our question and it's literally the chilean because that's what all this backs are all about basically We'll see what they come up with. I'm not that hopeful either. So i'm with you there. Yeah i mean there's great things happening in there that things happening on take with a grain of salt but no we get extremely narrow vision to think about this next big fed meeting is going to be a doozy. So before will good tyler. Thanks for putting those three issues in perspective. I hope that things get better down there in texas for you and appreciate you coming back along. Appreciate it thanks. I didn't shower today. So that's why. I got the backwards hat on. No water.

texas fifteen twenty percent Eighteen times today twenty first century three issues china Preston pysche keisha zero percent first america japanese one second outlet tyler one of things chilean lot of people nazis
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

04:57 min | 4 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"The purpose of these types of shows are to conduct deep dives into individual companies. So we can learn about the important aspects evaluation and the competitive nature for businesses in its sector. Today's discussion will be for a deep value pick and that's Charles Schwab. So without further delay, here's our chat with the reef. Listening to the investors podcast while we studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Welcome to the podcast I'm your host Dick Bros and Ns always unaccompanied by my co host Preston Pysche. I am very excited about the stock that we were talking about today because with inflated asset prices everywhere our guest my have found a stop the trait as a really attractive price to value rate you this doug is Charles Schwab answer help us analyzing that stock. We have our Korean with. US. Welcome back on the show riff. Hey Dig. I really appreciate always get to be on your show. Great to talk. We definitely love having you a rift like set. There will be talking about Charles Schwab. The ticker is S. C. H. W. it's one of the cheapest high quality picks out there, and we'll talk about the intrinsic value at the end of the episode. But first things first, could you please provide an overview of the business? Charles Schwab has been around for. Gosh almost fifty years now it was established or founded by chuck, Schwab back in the days when in the US at least brokered is regulated. INC is still regulated, but commissions were regulated by I guess agency the government, and there are at a high price point and really at the time for the average investor to be able to trade stocks, you paid very high commissions because the trading a was a manuals, a bunch of people forming a market but be it was bundled with Wall Street research, and so all that was kind of embedded in the cost of trading and Schwab was a guy who busy wanted to..

Charles Schwab US first things first Preston Pysche Dick Bros chuck
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:17 min | 6 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Vision TV ED is an expert in investment banking. He's a former diplomat and technology executive. Ed is an incredible host at real vision and conduct some of the most exclusive discussions with the world's most influential thinkers and finance. So we're really excited to have on the show to talk about the current market conditions in various investment ideas in the third quarter of twenty twenty. So without further delay, here's the talented Ed Harrison. You're listening to the investors podcast. Well, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires. The most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Welcome to the podcast I'm your host Bros and as always accompanied by my co host Preston Pysche. Today's topics are value versus gross stocks, the economy in the coronavirus and last but not least, we are covering the US dollar and the euro. We are super super grateful to have it Harrison with us here for the very first time. One of the top thinkers right now at welcome to our show. Thank you. I don't know if I can live up to your billing one of the top thinkers but I, hope that I can provide some insights into the sorts of things I'm thinking about. Modest I like that and I just want to say for the record Edwards started this into Outon tweet is so I, mean he of all people before the just speaking Swedish because apparently, he knows how to speak Swedish probably the person in the world who should be leased modest. Putting, a lot of pressure on you there. Yes and you know the reason I. Speak Swedish we're talking before is because Danish was too difficult for me to learn. Swedish instead. Our Aso a wanted to kick this into off with the discussion about growth and value because whenever people here gross stocks, these most people think about thank stocks and they relate their outperformance to accelerated total world. Now, you have a very interesting but different thesis of why growth is performing better than value right now what is that? The macro view that I would posit is is that we're in a very low growth low inflation environment, which means that nominal GDP growth is lower result. It's lower both on the inflation front and it's also lower in terms of the actual GDP growth, the real GDP growth itself. So if you look at cyclical terms in the past said, for instance, in the one, thousand, nine, hundred eighties, you got this massive jolt up in GDP and then the cycle continued higher both on a real GDP basis Annan inflation basis. So that means nominal GDP growth is low and when you look at companies throughout the indices, the S. and P. Five, hundred, Russell two. Thousand, whatever be in some senses you can look at them as a proxy for GDP. That is that companies in aggregate are not going to out perform drastically what the nominal growth of the economy is doing. So as a result, you're seeing a lower trajectory of earnings growth, and that means that to the degree that people want to hit their earnings hurdles. That is they wanna hit their hurdles for investing seven percent eight percent whatever it might be they're going to have to go to the companies that are going to have the highest growth and so to me that's one of the key factors driving growth over value at least since the great financial crisis. So, you're doing some amazing writing Ed and you have a very interesting equation. You have momentum equals growth growth equals long duration in long duration equals secular stagnation. What does this mean? How do we complete the equation? So I wrote a post very recently flushing out these ideas. So if you take what I was just talking about it and you move forward to what's happening right now and you look at nominal GDP growth across a wide swath of countries being lower this particular go round just as they were in the last financial crisis, the last recession that we had what you see. Is A need for yield? What you see is that we're seeing the yield curve compress in a way that you have a flattening of the yield curve with interest rates at zero in the short term in the rest of the core flattening towards zero or even in negative rates in Europe and so what that definitely means is that you're gonNA need to have some yield. Pickup somewhere else. So to the degree that you need, you'll pick up the question is where can you get it and why is it that it's there. If you look at it, let's talk about it from a discount Victor Perspective if you look at the discount factor because of the yields falling then that means that companies that pay their investors based upon prospects that are. Five ten twenty years down the line those companies whose prospects are more interesting in a low yield environment because the discount factors mean that those earnings are relatively speaking more valuable than they would be in a five percent yield environment or seven percent yield environment, and so I'm looking at those growth companies which are the companies that actually pay investors. Let's say the Tesla's of the. Or the what would be a good example of that I think it's the Nikola is another great example that similar to Tesla? Kinds of companies are going to pay much further down the line and those payments that they're going to get or the prospects of those payments are worth much more. So you're actually getting a long duration play. It's a bond proxy if you will as a result because you wanna go to the longest duration and this is what you get. When you get a growth company is you get a long duration play and that is what's GonNa win in a low growth environment. So Ed, what do we do as investors to position ourselves based on this information that you just shared with us? So I think that the real problem is you can look at it from a portfolio perspective I look at it the optionality that if you look at two thousand or the run up in the Nasdaq in the one, thousand nine is up two thousand. What you saw was that some of these companies that had the prospects of great profits down the line when two zero. The Boston they went out of business so. Perhaps if you took a portfolio approach and then you had the Amazons in there, you had the ebays in there as well as the pets.com in those portfolios you would make out as well. But I think that what people are doing today is that they are saying to themselves not only do we want to have the Nikola Tesla portfolio that don't have any proven profitability but because the world that we live in is different now where the companies that are going. To IPO actually have profit more and actually the companies that have moat and that are going to give us profits five ten years down the line are bigger like the facebooks, the Amazons, the apples of the world were going to invest in those. So I think that it's a barbell strategy if you will, that is combining the growth companies of today and the growth companies of tomorrow together. So Amazon and Apple, and the one side Tesla and Nikola on the other side. Audience are primarily value investors that sort of like of the very root of where.

Ed Harrison Nikola Tesla US executive Boston Preston Pysche Amazons pets.com Edwards Europe Russell Apple Tesla facebooks Nikola
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

05:32 min | 7 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"You're listening to Ti pay on today's show. We bring back a guest by popular demand Mr an for meagerly an has over twenty four years of experience in real estate private equity startups in. Trading as the CIO at crowd street Ian has over four hundred offerings with over thirteen billion in commercial real estate. On the episode, we talked about the structural and infrastructure impacts for all types of real estate that cove it is having and what to expect moving forward. So without further delay, here's our interview with an for meekly. Were listening to the investors podcast while we study the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Welcome to stay show I'm your host brought us and always accompanied Bamako host Preston Pysche today we have one of our most popular guests with us, and that is Ian for meagerly chief investment officer at Croft Street, and he's with us for the fifth time. Thank you. Ian For joining us here today on the masters. PODCAST. Sticking president to push back on the show today and I must say the environment a little bit different than the last time that we spoke by cycles, our cycles, and so eager to talk about what's changing right now. You definitely righty and things are very very different. I guess that's sentence that we tend to say a lot more these days. We talked about how one of the strength of having commercial real estate in your portfolio is how uncurling this to other assets an external shocks to the Magi in general and think that we use the example that it was more important with store that opened the store than whether. Would see it in the trade with. China. For instance. So this kick this interview off this question, how commercial real estate performed so far in twenty twenty given everything that has happened. Stig. You're absolutely correct and we've previously talked about the importance of microeconomic drivers on commercial real estate values. I think what's interesting right now is that we are currently experiencing how a pandemic effects commercials state value. In the performance of the overall commercial real estate market in twenty twenty has really varied substantially by asset class and the performance of each asset class has strongly correlated to the effects of the pandemic so far however, regardless of the pandemic, the underlying common denominator here is demand both current and perceived future demand. This concept goes back to some of our first conversations on commercial real estate in that the ultimate driver of value in real estate is demand relative to its supply. You just can't get around that and right now the pandemic is exposing this concept yet once again..

Ian meagerly Ti CIO Preston Pysche Bamako chief investment officer president China twenty twenty
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:14 min | 7 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Multiple investing books in a regular guest on Bloomberg and major financial news outlets on the show. Today we talk about the current market conditions in various trade ideas for navigating this landscape so with that let's get started. You're listening to the investors podcast while we study the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Will come today's show. I'm your host, Bros Ns, always I'm here with my co host Preston Pysche. On today's show, we'll be talking about equities inflation and what to expect in the financial markets. Therefore, we also excited to bring back. One of my favorite guests Colin Roach calling. Thank you so much for joining us today. Guys thanks for having me. So Colin talked a lot about the potential of new monetary system. Here on our show, we discussed this scenario of fear. Based system with the US dollar is the most important global research currency and the probability of having that system for at least a few more decades and I mean that's basically the system we have today, and then on the other side of the spectrum, also discussed the the opposite scenario with a new monetary system that might come sooner than most people expect. And I guess you can even say for listeners. For three hundred episodes we talked of everything in between, but we really curious to hear how you see this. How do you expect the monetary system to look like in college five years or twenty years from now? I've thought about this a lot especially with the rise of Bitcoin in the whole concept of decentralized money. My view basically is that it's never going to be an either or sort of scenario that plays out. My thinking is that people want something that is more decentralized that they have a little more control over. They have a little more anonymity over and something that is really more convenient for online and appeared here transactions, but here's The bay, and here's the big thing that I have trouble with something like any decentralized form of money. Is that the reason we use centralized forms of money, likely the US dollar to a large degree. This is one of the big drivers is it's backed by government that enforces it. I don't mean men with guns. I mean people are able to take other people to core basically so. From the beginning of time all money is credit. What I mean by that is that all money is basically an agreement between two parties. In the ancient times! The monetary system was basically develop for agrarian agreements where a farmer for instance would agree to lend a certain amount of seed. Somebody else. You needed to grow some crops and they would have this. Agreement between the two of them to next season deliver a certain amount of seed back to the far so for instance you need one hundred acres of corn grown. You would land the amass. To make that doable in the agreement would be that in the future that other farmer has to deliver even more corn seed in the future or something like that, and you'd have this unwritten agreement back then that over time essentially evolved into written contracts in the thing that makes government somewhat essential in all of this is that if those two parties ever have disagreement, farmer, a can take farmer a court, and he can enforce that contract, and it makes the money more credible so. So the debt contracts that we all create between each other in forcible, and that creates an inherent amount of trust inside of the money that we use because you know that it's good. It's good because it's enforceable. You know that the valued is something that you can recoup in the future if the other party just you know tries to nullify the contract for some reason, and so that's the thing that I have trouble with a lot of decentralize money. They don't have that. Degree of trust in them because there is no real way to enforce the contracts if there's ever a problem, that's the thing that I think somewhat hard to decipher with something like bitcoin is, that ultimately is very hard to create debt contracts from because a is not very stable, and be it somewhat hard to enforce, so I think what will ultimately happen is that they're still going to be too man for these other forms of decentralized money, but I think that it's. It's very hard to see a future where something like the US. Dollar or the centralized based types of money goes away just because I think that the legal system in the enforceability of these contracts is such an important part of the structure in any modern economy, and it's hard for me to see that going away in the future, so I could see the two systems kind of running parallel to each other, but neither one necessarily going away or overtaking the other. Thank you for the insatiable response, things very interesting that you it's not an either or would say this to a lot of people, but we can have two systems. You see that all the time even in today's system I. Mean You have a lot of nonfinancial firms that create things that are sort of money like I mean even dachshund. Bonds are issued by. Corporations are very money like I mean they're just financial contracts. Just like any a monetary contract isn't all of these systems are created by the private sector Kinda. Run parallel to the US dollar system in essence. So call in to continue issuing death. The US has to convince investors that the debt will not only be paid back, but that the buying power of the return currency will be retained. What are the arguments for and against investors continuing to trust US treasuries? The way that I like to think of treasuries, is that treasury bonds or really? Most government issued what we call debt. They're really money like instruments. So for instance. What's the big difference between a one month treasury bill that yields zero percent and the cash. No, it really is not much of a difference between these two instruments. The treasury bill in my view is almost as close to cash. Cash as the actual cash notice in the spectrum of money nece along which all of these instruments exists is just a matter of maturity duration basically what the interest rate is on it so a thirty year treasury bond is just a really ill liquid form of cash, basically where it's just harder for us to. You can't go to Walmart and buy with a thirty year. Treasury Bonds So. The degree of money nece in that instrument is relatively low compared to a cash bill, but I think the kicker is that it all comes back to inflation, and what is the level of trust? What is the level of demand for these things so I oftentimes see people say that there's a low demand for treasury bonds or that the US government debt probably can't be trusted in the future and to me. If that ever happens the way you'll see it, play out, is you'll see play out? Out as an increase in inflation, so the way I think this is that if the government were go out and try to finance a whole bunch of spending by just printing cash, they could dump a whole bunch of money on the street. People have to.

US Colin Roach Bros Ns Bloomberg Preston Pysche Walmart The bay
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

08:08 min | 9 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"You're listening to t I, P. Hey, how's everyone doing out there? I think you guys are going to really enjoyed today's show. We have the talented Reef Karim. WHO's the senior investment analyst from ensemble capital management with us in the first part of the show, a reef talks about how he is adjusted his portfolio on the impacts of covid nineteen, then in the second half of the show reef provides an intrinsic value pitch for the fascinating medical, technology company, intuitive surgical finally at the end of the show, we a question from the audience about how the market can possibly be attempting new highs. Even though we're seeing all time, unemployment numbers in a devastated workforce so without further delay. Let's get started. You're listening to the investors podcast. Well, we study the financial markets and read the books influenced self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Let's take a quick break and hear from today sponsor. If you're in tech, you've been there before fueling the pain of hiring a freelancer or new employee for design development owner to find a month later. That's not a good fit and those type of mistakes aren't cheap. Instead Machel Mobile. APP Digital Technology Consultancy uses the process developed over the past ten years, delivering over six hundred projects to ensure fast and beautiful mobile. All wet APP is finished on time, and within budget, mutual mobile has built. Ask for numerous companies. The has been quiet such as euro quite by Emerson, flex drive acquired by lift and map. My fitness acquired under armor. You get a dedicated team to help you with your tech project from start to finish from ideation to project shipment to maintenance everywhere in between mutual mobile designs and builds beautiful mobile and Web APPs that increase the value of your business. If you had to sign them developing these schedule free thirty minute consultation at mutual mobile dot link slash billionaires to get started. That's Mu T., U., L. M. O. B. I. L. E. Dot L. I. In key less billionaires to get started with your free consultation today all right back to the show. Welcome to the S podcast. I'm your host brought us as always accompanied by my co host Preston Pysche. Today's main topic is investing through covid nineteen, and in the second part of the interview Arif is also pitching a stock for US intuitive surgical. Which I think you will find very interesting. Are If welcome to our show? Hey thanks again. Thank you for having me I appreciate having chance to chat with you. I can't help, but kicked this episode off by talking about all the volatility that we have experienced especially since February, but it has been a almost unprecedented time just looking back. It seems like it's been decades, but it's only been a few months. I have to ask. How has it been for you and your team to menace a billion dollars, and then you see the size that portfolio just plunge, and then only to see the market having the largest fifty day trading rally ever and now we're close to an all time high. Can you talk through some of the emotions that you've gone through over the past few months? It definitely has been an unprecedented time have. Out of the I in our careers delivered through has been really interesting and dramatic. This namic obviously started in China and one of the things that perked up. Interest was when I saw after lunar. New Year in the second largest economy in the world basically shut itself down. That was an amazing thing to see. And while very fewer concern about it here. That got me interested twitter. Amazing platforms I started following frontline workers in that they anything reports Taiwan Hong Kong by people hearing things out of China epidemiologist started tweeting about things going on there virologists for interests trying to find the people who would understand more about what's going on in China on the ground, and try to get data from them I, just kind of fell. What happens there? How the dramatic steps that society to the government took, and then kind of follow that into Italy as well right Kennesaw how the spread their happened so long story short. We were following what was going on in the market. Here took about A. A month after started China shut, itself found to react and so going into it, we were to some degree prepared we had thought about our portfolio was physician. What kinds of implications we have under certain scenarios, and so although we are long only we don't generally take back robots, we can make tactical changes in the portfolio to make it as resilient as possible to whatever may come, and so while we generally physician the portfolio that way for all seasons of course, when you speak information about an impending storm, you try to mitigate damage from the storm by best your portfolio for that store. Having said that you know in general as we think about investing. We're humble the fact that. The world is complicated. Lots of surprises happen on a fairly regular basis, right? Each surprise might be new or a Black Swan New in our lifetime, but the collection of surprises happens. Answer were always prepared emotionally for ourselves, and we re clients as well. There is surprised to the upside good things in this rise of the downside, and we have to kind of take them. Them as they come all the while remembering that our portfolio has to be positioned in a way that lives and thrives post any sort of crisis, and so the drought was large, it was fast dramatic. Obviously, it's not easy to see, but at the same time entry it in a way where we're very confident about the positioning of companies that we all and the portfolio. So we're, we've talked to us a little bit more about this. You're not shorting the market. The timing is very tricky. But how did you specifically change your portfolio covid nineteen hit? For us, our perspective is that over long arc of time the market has returned something on the order of nine percent a year, and that's you know with big ears and big down years right? That's to be expected so to the extent that you can have a long-term focus on the value being created by the companies that you own and their resiliency. That's really important, right? Right so when Warren Buffet talks about never lose money. Never lose money in other words from a permanent loss of capital perspective, that's a perspective that we take which is that we only want to own companies where we have strong sense for the resilience and Competitive Advantage, so that going through episodes like this, we have a very strong conviction, their ability to survive and thrive afterwards. Afterwards having said that in front of any crisis and we were to some degree fortunate that we read the tea leaves right and saw this. What looked like potentially a big Su- Nami our way we did the things that any normal investor would do which is, we've thought about our companies? Powder balanced restructured. What kind of financing they would be needing the next three to five. Five years. They have access to the markets. Will we the revenue? I mean one of the companies that we own. Our portfolio is booking dot com, which we think is that great business men a resilient business by obviously it was going to be in the hearts of this pandemic right, the travel industry just gotten clobbered, and so one of the stress test scenarios around with booking. How much of a revenue declined, would they have to see for the start losing money? And our conclusion was that it would have to be somewhere on the order of seventy percent they will be able to survive the resilient enough, and there was surviving out of this hotels of even more dependent on booking to help them gain customers again, so they are competitive. Andrew be strengthened in. In addition you have to look at other things such as what is the probability that.

China Reef Karim investment analyst Machel Mobile twitter Preston Pysche Digital Technology Consultancy Warren Buffet Arif Emerson Kennesaw Andrew Taiwan Hong Kong Su- Nami Mu T.
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

07:46 min | 9 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"I go to is which company is giving me. The most earnings for the price that I'd pay on the market, right? That's the first thing I'm looking at, but I'm also looking at a lot of other factors in pulling them all together and I think that it's just important for people especially for young, people. People that are in college right now. That are learning about valuations right. They're learning about discount cash flow models about irr calculations all those things those are very important things in there's going to be a day when the person who's really good at those things is going to be extremely lethal. When the market I tell you the last five years. They have not been extremely lethal. It's maybe much more momentum based in order to have been the person who's really outperforming, but I think. Think once we return to some type of sound money and I. Have No idea the timeline of when something like that's going to play out. You better darn well. Believe Preston Pysche is going to be the biggest value investor on the planet by an up the picks that are kicking off. The biggest cash flows based on the price that I'm paying, but I really think that you have to have a sound money in place in order for that to be such a slam dunk. Dunk shooting fish in a barrel approach like it was for Warren Buffet for decades and I. Think you're starting to see wides. It isn't shooting fish in a barrel for Warren Buffett in the last ten years. You know at the end of the day I think. I'm just kind of a chameleon. In the way that I approach investing. I am trying to look at what works trying to look at all. The external factors and I'm trying to adjust if I was on a sailboat. The sale and a majestic the rudder in order to navigate where I WANNA go I. Guess That's all I'm trying to say, but anyway. Stiglitz Transition. Let's talk about what's next on our agenda here. We've got European markets monetary and fiscal policies. Let's do it. Let's take a quick break and hear from today sponsor. Although, we're value-based investors at heart. It has long been known among investors around the world that systematic or quantity strategies have become a highly successful way for professional investors to extract returns from the market in fact, most of the top ten hedge funds in the world today like bridgewater associates and renaissance. Discovered this decades ago and there's one podcast that covers this area in finance in great detail in its top traders, unplugged dot, com, and right now you can get a free book explaining how to systematically identify follow market trends as well as a comprehensive guide to one hundred of the best investment books of all time. Just go to top traders UNPLUG DOT. COM SLASH T I ip to get your books today again. Just head over to top traders unplugged. UNPLUGGED DOT com slash T ip. You'll be glad you. Did you know how it feels? When you find extra cash in your pocket? Now imagine you found five times that surprise money. That's the feeling with capital one. We're new savings. Account earns five times. The national average savings rate on any balance that means you earn more every day just for saving. This is hassle-free hardworking savings. This is banking reimagined. What's in your wallet capital? One NA member FDIC. Let's get back into the podcast? So, I'm going to come up with a very old school. Way of valuing Europe right now. No I'm just teasing president right now. So whenever I'm looking at European markets, and we're looking at the major markets. You know Germany UK and France. They haven't seen the same rebounds in the Stock Market Index as you say the S. p. five hundred, and so whenever I saw that to me, it was sort of like a signal to perhaps I should see if there are still some value to be found in Europe and then talkie bit more by what is happening over here. So let's talk about some of the somewhat comparable thing you know the ECB are growing their balance sheet to like person minutes before what they're saying is that the program is vital to ensure that especially southern Europe has been hit. The hardest by the pandemic won't see search in boring costs, and we recorded this a third of June. There's going to be A. A new meeting tomorrow June fourth, and the room is saying that the probably going to spend that program. That is what the market expects, and you've seen that in European markets here lately. That's been trying to factor N, and so I think what's interesting for American listeners to understand when there were they learn about Europe is that it's comparable and it's not. Not Whenever you look at some of those numbers. No one thing we talked about before is that the debt market in Europe is just not as deep as in the US so it has a dollar. A euro for that matter would just have a different impact, but it's also because of fiscal policies, and whenever I say fiscal policies as opposed to monitor policies. Policies where you were more controlling the monetary supply fiscal policies, that's a different way of spending money. If you're like might be government programs like unemployment, programs or fiscal policies can also be taxes so much more directed at consumers than the financial markets now in Europe. We don't have a central unit as you guys do and us to determine the fiscal stimulus. We have that in the sense that we have a long-term E. U. Budget, but in the states you also have something that is state based something that's fit based, but it's structured very differently in Europe due to store could reasons because we are still very independent nations, and so what the e U has been trying to do, and this is not the euro-zone, but the EU just to clarify that it's two very different. Different things man the country, the same, but different, and not all of them is that the German Chancellor Merkel and the French president. mccown has proposed a five hundred billion euro recovery package, and there are a few interesting things about that. The first one is that it's not a lot of money and so what I'm. Burnett five hundred billion euros. That's should be a lot of money, but it's not because fiscal policies. are a lot more comparable between the US Europe in the sense that it goes directly to the consumers, and so the death of the Magi are not different. Actually Europe and the US has a similar size economy, so it's a lot more comparable. Five hundred billion euros is not a lot whenever compared to what has been happening in the US and how much it's been stimulated there, so that's one thing. The individual member states can still print. But it's trickier situation because if you look in the US such because we have the construction that we have. All twenty seven countries had to agree and the sounds ridiculous. You have something where the rich northern European countries supposed to pay for the poorest on the European countries. Whenever you have something twenty-seven countries have to agree. You just bound to run into problems. which is also what you're seeing now so right now. The all European countries are saying hey, guys you to help us and all the European countries who are typically wealthier saying we're not going to you out because this won't be alone. This would be made as grand so it will be. Be Money raised all over Europe, but distributed to the poorer countries, a lot of countries are against. Since you have to have twenty seven countries agree on this is just very difficult, so that just tells you something about the inefficiencies of the European markets now what are the implications then for US investors like? How are we supposed to deal with those facts that are brought before? Well despite all of this I would still say that if you're too exposed in the US might consider diversifying into.

Europe US Warren Buffet Preston Pysche bridgewater associates FDIC Stiglitz president Chancellor Merkel Germany ECB Burnett mccown EU
"preston pysche" Discussed on The Bitcoin Podcast

The Bitcoin Podcast

08:44 min | 9 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on The Bitcoin Podcast

"Hear that they're talking to you? Yagi! Listener Him Yagi I know he's listening. so. All right, so what about as the head of education like? Where's the curriculum? Start at the University of Swan like Whoa. You know if I'm coming from one. Oh One SWAN WANNA. One two swan three Oh one I. think that's a college go. I can't remember obviously. I wasn't great at it, but. Once? was the start of the curriculum. So, we are reading. A book called the Gift of Bitcoin and we're reading it. We're dropping each chapter once. A month is going to be twelve chapters long. It's focused on taking you from nothing. No knowledge at all about bitcoin up through, you know. why money bit of Austrian economics and just like what money really is compared to know, sound money versus Fiat money the sort of optimism of bitcoin like kind of future that we hope that bitcoin will build for us. and then technology privacy You know debunking some Fudd and then just like a chapter of answering. Just you know we have listrik like eighty five questions, and we give like short answers to. We've created videos around. So that's all in the works right now. that originated with our kind of our sister products called give bitcoin which we launched last year, GonNa, Early Fourth Quarter for the for the holiday season. And Swan SORTA grew out of give Bitcoin we decided to. Create a separate products that was focused on dollar, cost, averaging and kind of focused at or aimed at bitcoins. And then also at moving people that gum through give Bitcoin, which are you know? Big winners will give gifts to their family and friends. We had a lot of users last year. Give gifts over the holiday season. And transition those folks over to stacking at Suon. That's sort of the way those things work together, so that's when we started writing the gift bitcoins whites called the gift of Bitcoin That's the start of it. We have big plans. I have big plans for building out just A. Very? Thorough robust, just education platform basically that like you said we'll take you through like one one and kind of be sort of a Swan University. He can go as deep as you once But right now we're also doing a blog. You have a nice blog at Samba com slash signal. We call it Swan Signal, also doing a weekly live show called Swanson Alive and bring guests on twitter youtube twitch facebook, and then we published at as an audio podcast as well. It's one signal podcast dot, com. and that's we pair up to big winners We had some without some amazing. Guests next week. We're having Preston Pysche. Who is a well-known investor with huge podcast and Adam back CEO. Bloodstream and cited in the White Paper So we're having kind of Combos of guests on that level and fun because. There's not that many shows out there that are like putting to Bitcoin is together that you don't really see together and play off each other and to hear their perspectives, and so it's been a lot of fun. We're. Done ten episodes so far those have been super valuable, so we get a ton of content of that and we just like. Chop it up into short clips, an quotes and Kinda just you know. Put all that stuff into into our. Our our books and you know the working on this SORTA sub site where you can just come in and just start learning like the Education Sorta Portal for Swan, so we're. We're just now starting to build that, but I you know it's I think it's GonNa. Take a while to really complete full vision but I'm really excited about it. This is exactly what I wanted to do. so I'm like superstock to have this job. Be Able to do this. That's a lot of quality content that I hope. People consume. But before I'm able to like. I kind of. Get my personal stamp of approval. Our Audience I. How Y can I trust? Platform to be a custodian of my coins, at least even in the interim of me, sending it to my wallet using her service. Yeah, so we do not custody the coins ourselves, so we're sort of A. Like a an application layer on top of our custodial partner which is Prime Trust? The same studio parties by by Nance Beatrix Hugh O., b. maybe Oak to I'm not sure about that one, but other lots of other exchanges so they've been in the game for a long time and really like. When, we were considering like thinking about how to structure the business. Toss like why reinvent the wheel you know kind of goes along with that idea of being laser focused on one thing providing one sort of service and. Adding in rebuilding a recreating a whole custodial service, was just. GonNa require a lot of work a lot more expense More risk, obviously tons more, so we work with Prime Trust very well respected very great track record. They store everything in cold storage. You know there's no like everything goes and cold storage every day. so there's very little risk on that front. We have a great relationship with them Corey's An incredible networker the best I've ever seen, and he has a massive network of. bitcoin friends just people over in corporate America in different industries and he's got a you know a few connections at a prime trust that really help us. just have a have a really really good pipeline, really stable and sustainable pipeline ensue their service We get a lot of you know quick responses from them and. yeah, so we have a great relationship. We believe that it's A. Very very secure place for the Bitcoin to be held, and we just interface API so when we make purchases, we basically everything's done through through prime trust, and then when we do with withdrawals, we make that request of the API and it's sent out from prime just. so we don't have. We're in forty nine states right out of the gate because we don't have to get mt and. Other licenses like that, so we're just. We do have to get a bit license in New York, so we're working on that. You! Know what I hear Corey. I'm starting to hear robustness. Saddam starting to hear robustness of the space. The guys came out of the space available in forty nine states that would been not the case three years ago exactly though. That's. Industries. Like you just said that's issues developed. This is we're now at a point? In. In bitcoin infrastructure where you can start to build financial services on the infrastructure that exists that add new services to individuals right you can. You can actually start to laser focus. On a specific use case that the integrates with the larger players that are already kind of giving you the quality of service you need to the laser focus on a single thing like doing this in the past was not nearly as easy because you had to do all of those things that he just said. We're relying on this company to do for us. I think that's a really big step in terms of the technology so. It's a huge step man, and this I mean this is how this kind of layered you know. Layers of specializations out economy itself is built. It's how the Bitcoin Protocol is scaling. You know like you have a base layer. The Internet scaled you know the a stack of protocols that sort of specialize and build off the more general lower base layer. so yeah, I mean it's tried and true You know just way that. Our. Grow disagreed it. Systems grow it. I think it really signifies. portends like A. You know maturation the space that is. really exciting I mean. One thing about one really important thing about timing Arum. Sorry about starting a company is timing. And I? Think right now. The industry is sort of like just mature, enough and just young enough to be kind of the sweet spot. It's a really started bitcoin only business so I'm. Obviously hope the timing's right, but I think it is. Well we'll wrap it up with our with our trademark question. In ten words less. CAN YOU.

Prime Trust Swan University of Swan Swan Signal Swan University Corey Preston Pysche facebook Adam New York Nance Beatrix Hugh O. Fudd Saddam partner CEO Fiat Swanson
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

10:55 min | 11 months ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Host Preston Pysche and as always accompanied by my co host Stig Broder Sohn. And we're back with you here for another Current market conditions. Were trying to watch these things as best we can and provide the best feedback that we can't so we've got a list of things that we want to go through today and I'm just on the throat over to stick to kind of kick things off. Would you see where this takes us? The first thing we're going to talk about is what's happened to the stock market since we record last time is two weeks ago since you heard from US last time about the conditions and today's April I I have to say before. The market opens like these days. Everything is so volatile that you almost have to say not just the day but like what time of day? It's absolutely amazing now. A few different things to the type of market environment that we're in right now which is quite unusual to say the least first of all. I think it's important for the listeners to understand that you shouldn't believe the newspapers too much whenever they try to explain what's going on in the Magi that's because most newspapers treated ass spores right. They want to put everything into one headline. That's just how the newspaper business works. They can't be a little more confusing than helpful from time to time. So if the market goes up it's always because of spending or at least that's the way the phrase it and if he might go down it's always because the market is worried about something new with Kobe. Nineteen and think that quickly becomes very simplistic. Not just the past two weeks for quite some time now. It has been known to the market that the virus is very serious. And it's also been very obvious that you would see major fiscal spending and we are likely not done so as a stock investor. I think it's important that you swim out and understand truly going on what you see right now is that we get more. And more data that democracy is trying to factor in and they're trying to do that with known unknowns and unknown unknowns and that's just a very volatile process that takes some time to adjust for which also takes me to the next point because in times like these and I just mentioned before that it is actually important to say which time of Day Recording. And by the way we recording this before the market opens. So what I've been doing some of these days as I've been putting out older is that I'm looking at the futures market and I usually never look at the future smoggy and if I do I don't do it for that day so I just looked it up here and we are looking at something like the Maga opening in minus three percent. Now the reason why I'm saying this is that we often here on the show talked about using limit orders and I still don't think there's anything wrong about doing lindores. But we've seen days where the market has been like down ten percent or ten percent so it actually makes a lot of sense to look at futures if you are looking at the modern day to day basis so let me. Just give you an example. So I say that you put out limit order of the S. and P. Five hundred. That right now is trading at twenty five hundred and you put it out to say twenty four hundred ninety nine. Dushi under normal circumstances. If that was bet you met a long time ago. You can say that's fine because the markets are so volatile right now because you see these major major swings he can actually make sense for you to pay attention to the futures and remove some of those risks because the futures especially short-term are very very efficient and in that sense you can go in and not take the worst beating fight after you make that position and that goes for bioresearch as well as sell orders but all of them that I also just want to point out when you look at the past two weeks we see some crazy things happening. Seventeen percent in just three days last week was the biggest rela since one thousand nine hundred eighty three. So if you're wandering last time we talked about TV finance on new tool. We talked about the momentum of the market and we talked about how tool call the February twenty six that perhaps now is the time to go out of the market. That hasn't changed instead. I just WanNa add that for people that may be didn't experienced two thousand eight two thousand nine and they're looking at the volatility that we're seeing in the S. and P. Five hundred index and seeing these ten percent swings or five percent swing in a day and they're thinking this is crazy. This is pretty normal for what it looks like when you're in a recession type environment a crash. This is how the market behaves. And so much of it goes back to some of the stuff that we mentioned two weeks ago with the derivatives market. Because I think the best way for people to think about why you're seeing such abrasive moves in the market is because you have everybody that has to come into cash. They have to come into Fiat money in order to make good on those derivatives. And so when you have that playing out and it's because you have people that are having margin calls because you had the biggest supply demand shock world has ever seen with this corona virus. And so when you have that taking place you have this four selling you have these liquidations at our massive on scale and so if you see it go down by ten percent and then see the next day. It's up seven percent. That is your normal volatility especially through the initial part of something that has such ridiculous shock to the system. So the fact that we've seen a bounce. I'm not saying that it won't keep going higher but I'm also not saying that. The bottoms in. I think that what we're seeing right now is standard volatility for the type of trend the long term trend that I expect to continue to see with the current market conditions. So it's easy for people to look at this and say oh my God it's up twenty percent from the bottom. I missed the bottom and now I gotta buy and then they step into the market if you go to any large downturns that we've seen historically and I'm not even just saying mother. Nineteen twenty nine one because that's the most notorious one that literally went on clear out to nineteen thirty three every time. You thought all right. It's hit its bottom. Let me step into this and buy something. Because it's up forty or fifty percent. That was the next interim top for a mega downtrend. And I'm not saying that's what's happening here. I kind of expect it to happen. More my personal opinion but. I think it's important for people to have that realization. That if you see a thirty percent up that's not necessarily symbolizing that you've had a bottom here and I think something else to watch very closely as the volume that you see here if you don't see a massive amount of volume it's probably just within the momentum trend that we're seeing in. I think the long-term momentum trend here is in a downward direction. At least that's what our T. Ip momentum tool is recommending still read on pretty much every single company and ETF. That were viewing so. I think that's important for people to remember. I think you bring up a good point there. Preston. It's easy to have too much of a narrow focus if you just look last week a different looks like we're on the way up but we talk about bull markets and bail mangas assets a linear process. Or at least that's the way can be perceived but that's not how it works. It's not like you have seven years and it just goes up and then you have for years only goes down if you do a case study on some of the crash twenty nine or dot com for that matter in two thousand and it didn't just go down. You have all types of interventions financial stimulus package monetary policy. That's coming into the mix and you see this spike and a lot of people think well now it's over and just continues going down so I think you're right. I can easily see this down more than you might see. A spike again might see the market rally and slide down again. I Reference Radio A lot. I know I do. But he has some amazing points on helping people understand how the markets work. And when you start getting into some of these margin. Paul's especially very large shocks to the system. It has a self reinforcing effect to it. And that's where I think people who especially have participated in the markets over the last ten years and maybe didn't experience the two thousand seven to two thousand nine timeframe. Just don't have that experience of seeing how these actions in this selling that we're seeing has a compounding impact and I would argue for how much upside we saw in the last ten years when you think of it like winding up something that Spring loaded when you wind up and wind it up when you finally are able to push it any further because maybe with the source that you're using the wind it is just not strong enough to wind it any tighter. When it starts to undo itself it picks up steam and a picks up momentum as it starts spinning the other way. And so you're seeing that right now the fact that you have all this capitalization and when I say capitalisation you basically have central banks that have continued to supply more and more liquidity into the market which bids the prices of stocks which bids the prices of all these different things as a capitalization above the earnings power. So if I'm a company and I made ten dollars last year. I might be capitalized evaluation at one hundred dollars if I make just one more dollar to eleven dollars. Now my capitalization. Mike jumped to one hundred ten or one hundred fifteen dollars and so the whole market is bid in a way that it's capitalized. Meaning it's there's this multiple effect off of the earnings so those earning start to contract that capitalization is moving in the opposite direction. And so that has a compound. Impact to the valuations of how other things are priced. So like let's say I went out and I was getting a loan on my house but it was based on my net worth and my net worth was based on a capitalization of one hundred and ten but now all of a sudden because the earnings power that that underlying capitalization is moved down to call it seven dollars and now the market cap moves from one hundred and ten down to poets seventy or eighty or whatever. It might be now. I can't afford to go out and get that loan that I used to be able to get because my net worth was capitalized at whatever. And I'm just giving a really really really generic example to show how those forces compound upon themselves as things like this unravel and so that's why you see these bursts in these drops and these bursts up and then further drops down because that wheel is spinning in the opposite direction. And that is a really important concept for people to understand that they're self-reinforcing on the way up but then once that momentum shifts and you get into a long term trend in the other direction itself reinforcing in the opposite way.

Preston Pysche US Stig Broder Sohn Mike Paul
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

07:31 min | 1 year ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"You're listening to T- IP on today's show we bring back a guest from five years ago. Mr Collin rose from pragmatic capitalism collins. Private an investment partnership was able to navigate the two thousand eight crisis with a fifteen percent positive return when the rest of the market was down more than fifty percent before starting his own investment confirm Colin managed to half a billion dollars for Merrill Lynch in the early two thousands and on today. Show we talk about contrarian ideas and Collins top down thinking for economic principles bulls so without further delay. Here's our discussion with Colin Roche. You're listening to the investors podcast. I well we studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires. Most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Yeah well constantly they show. I'm your host astigmatism. And as always I'm here with my co host Preston Pysche. We're here with Colin Roach from pragmatic capitalism Colin. Thank you so much for taking the time to speak big with us here today. Hey guys thanks so much for having me so calling again. Thank you so much for making time to speak with us. Because on today's show. We'll debunk different myth in economics and investing. But before we do that I wanNA talk to you about a very hot topic these days. I WanNa talk about this whole discussion about active Tiv- and passive investing and more funds than ever really invested in so called passive indexes than ever before and a lot of people talk about that creating a bubble but before we talked about that before we talk about. If it's truly passenger with a no you have an opinion about that I would like take a step back and talk about the very basic so perhaps you can. I explain the importance for the investors about the confusion. The term active and passive. Yeah I really tried to formulate a foundation for understanding the whole financial world that is very sort of operational in nature. Sort of looking at the world through the Lens of like an engineer would look at the way that he might construct a plane so you understand the basics of the dynamics of flight and then you can construct whatever you want that will actually achieve the goals that you want and from a financial angel perspective the active versus passive debate. It doesn't really make a lot of sense. I mean from from a strict. I think industry industry perspective. The reason these terms exist is pretty simple there basically just marketing BS. I think that the the passive community created the the term passive so that they could create an opposing side that they could demonize to some degree for marketing purposes. Press' so when you look at it. From a very sort of operational perspective it doesn't make a lot of sense to refer to anything as really active versus. Pass it because the reality is that everything we're doing in investment management involves a certain level of activity. You know this. It's really hit me over the head in two thousand eight. I was studying a perspectives. I'm the type of Nerd who will go through and actually read a full perspectives inspectors from a new. ETF and I'm sitting there reading perspectives from a new hedge fund. ETF One of the first few pages of it described the fund as a Passive Index Fund. And I was sitting there thinking to myself. Am what a load of garbage. This is a fund that is going to charge a three three percent. Management fee has super active underlying element of it that is invested in a bunch of sort of opaque and very the active strategies by any definition but they're calling themselves a passive index and it's interesting with the rise of ETF's that they kind of exposed this reality that nothing is really passive because an ETF is basically a it's a structure that takes an investment strategy and creates its own index and so by creating its own index. All it does is it tries to track that index so an example that your our listeners might enjoy is for instance let's say Warren Buffett wanted to start an ETF he would I mean. Warren Buffett is by no measure a passive investor. He's an active investor by any use of the word but if he started an ETF and he created the Warren Buffett Index and he tracked that Index Index. He could technically say that. He tracks a passive index. He is just passively tracking the index that he subjectively created in doing so he would be able to refer to himself technically as a passive investor. And that's what is happening. With a lot of these these index funds and passive funds funds. They basically create their own index fund or their own index and then they track it in what they refer to as a passive way but the the actual activity city of managing an index fund is highly active. If you look at the what's going on underneath the surface when someone goes out and buys for instance the Eh the vanguard S. and P. Five hundred fund which by the way the S. and P.. Five hundred is a very active fund. It's just a subjectively created set of five hundred companies beneath in a world of tens of thousands of public companies that are subjectively picked by the SNP indexing committee but when someone goes out and buys vise that index. They're actually what they're not seeing under. The surface is that there is a huge amount of market making activity and a a lot of action that goes on in the actual underlying management of the fund that investors don't see so one way to think of this. This is that if you were thinking of the end investor the person with the vanguard account as the person who is passive they actually are enabled bold by the market makers vanguard itself who was very actively managing the fund itself and so when you look at the totality of everything that makes that passive Passive Index Fund available and workable. There is no one side of the arguments very two sided perspective where you have to understand and the passive investor in that relationship is allowed or able to be passive because there is all of this activity on the other side the market making in the interaction with you know building the actual index in maintaining the index rebalancing the index. This is going on on every single minute of every single day. In these index funds these index funds are some of the some of them are the most active funds in the markets on a daily basis. This that exist in increasingly so as the grow in popularity so the distinction is more to me a marketing term for the fund management in companies than anything else in. So it's it's not as black and white people tend to portray it as so so call an I know you're a.

Index Index Colin Warren Buffett Colin Roche Merrill Lynch Colin Roach Mr Collin rose Collins Preston Pysche engineer
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

14:45 min | 1 year ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"He was formerly the chief economist at Deutsche Bank he's worked at Goldman Sachs in the IMF and the Institute for the world economy so without further delay. Here's here's our conversation with Dr Thomas. Meyer you're listening to the investors podcast while we study the financial financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Welcome to today's show. I'm your host stick. Ns there's always. I'm here with my co host. Preston Pysche espy set their introduction. We have very excited to be here with Thomas Meyer. Thomas thank you so much for being with us here today today. So today's topic is the euro and I don't think we can find any better guest than you Thomas to help educating audiences and and us now Thomas I think it's hard to fully understand the euro without first talking about the history of Europe and the two World World War so let's go back in history and could you please talk to us about what led up to the creation of the European Economic Community that we today in a slightly different form. No s the European Union. Yes thank you see. I think they have to go back to World War One because I think this laws that affected Europe devoid of calls to end it the Always Time Senate. Broad view world by developing the Baugh who turned out to be a trauma for their it was also the end of the the war The Treaty of aside in Fashion T. Street. Got Court they went into a superior position and makes in the news so far as they could do. More damage was killing the news. Is that the guilty ones and the winners want to taking. The term was understandable from the time about Blair talk to very good because of the way. Wait for a lot of resentment on the part of the news though since Germany in particular which opened the door to a new national achieving. And then when you go for on time and you look at the depression. Duty Nineteen Thirties. Where the economy turned down? There was order find. Employment this facilitates they'll pay the way of the Nazi regime to exist intimacy so not to begin World War Two and defeated unfortunately but this time around the allies and in particular the French the Americans the British all into repeat the policy after World War One. It could treat you from. The science. Should be repeated because everyone understood that this brand you want so it was primarily French exiled politicians titians some of them living in Washington. DC that will also long That's told year one two years before the end of the war. And how to deal with the did you see trump and they came up with the idea that he would be much much better for the future to terminate into a security structure. Now this idea and they help off the Americans and the British and the post war post war more to politicians to build this classical full which wants to post war. Oeste the idea Boston coincide Germany especially with trump's but also the other I and to bring it in to a little community unity. It is no coincidence that the European Community started with Kuhn and steal again as a coal And deal community needs to economic sexist coming ruler of the members of this community notably crowns and other European why coal and steel because back then coal and steel very poor resource for waging law. Automate coincidence that it then progressed. So you're in common agricultural policy also interesting. Actually coach actually called. You need food too late war in your home country. COMP rely on imports of course because they cut you off from them on program. I'd be progress to European Economic Community. That grew up the country's closer together but also provided devices. If he'd been economic post it was everyone a big glass to be in there. Usually the prettiest interested join some other neither but because it was a very big success also the British came in the nineteen seventeen and how did the European Economic Community in both the European Union. which was again bro? Because no longer trusts to Kalani let me community but there are also areas of common structures happy to it in this sense of ending coming structures correct. We created a European exchange rate mechanism that exchange rate where types to each other and out of that invoice in your opinion monetary given but the euro another approach. That's came out of this. Getting together and going over. The original original structure of the European Economic Community was the single European market. Truly things in the market out so good answer recess. which was I I deliver newsroom and you think of it to be able to heck services in another country which basically meant that? The country intrigued by the services DOBA except the regulatory train book country where the Servers Ritchie made so beautiful they cooked mission. Regulatory Tori frameworks. And then of course we have the so called shaded area shaven. It's a small village Toyota excited to have pass cold free travel among the countries that belong to this to this agreement so we progress problem the two loss at Toyota Park one well to to the then basically removed Europe from it position as the global leading power so national strong these to war was never ever have in Europe again and to come closer together economically politically so Thomas. Let's talk about the.

European Economic Community Dr Thomas Thomas Meyer Europe European Union Germany Goldman Sachs chief economist IMF Preston Pysche Deutsche Bank Toyota Baugh Kalani Washington Blair
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

03:37 min | 2 years ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"I'm your host Preston pysche in his usual company by my co host, Stig broder Sohn. And like we said in the introduction where we covering everything. Peter till today for people that don't know Peter he was an early investor in Facebook. He was asked the question in reference to his early investment in Facebook. And he was asked why you should have a specific strategy for your business and stick to it. And this is how he responded tremendous amount written in the last number of years about Facebook and the crazy Facebook history. But I wanted to talk about one anecdote from the development of the company that I think was quite important, and that it's worth reflecting on a little bit more in this question of how and builds a great businesses was it just they stumble on this thing, and it happened to grow. And I think there was certainly some serendipity and luck around it. But I also think there was a tremendous amount of foresight. That I got to see firsthand in the company were already in the summer of two thousand four the were ideas about. How they wanted to build things out and how they envisioned this completely transformative social network that would be built over over many years aspects of that buried in changed over time. But in many ways, the outline of something much bigger was ready envisioned near the very beginning of of the company when I started to become involved in the summer of two thousand four when you have a company that get started. They often have a PowerPoint presentation. They will have a slide where they describe what the business is going to do and you have one type of company, which well, we can do many different things we can do a or b or c or d or e and you have a company where it's we are going to do a the company that says a through e is always worse than the one that just says a even though mathematically the opposite should be true. Not the medically you'd say eight three has to be better than just a. But when when you have a three it means that you've not really thought through any of these things, very, well, and probably they're all kinds of bad, and they have not been taught through. Well. Whereas if you have a specific idea, it's a. Dan, you can work against coordinating against measure yourself against and try to improve used to play chess a scholastically on junior high school high school in the US, and so one of the intermediate level chess. Thank you learn how to move the pieces and combinations. And how do get checkmate and things like that? But sort of one of the intermediate level things you learn in chess is that it's always good to have some kind of plan. Even if it's a bad plan, something you can measure yourself against versus having no plan at all. So what are you trying to do, you know, something recreate options for many different plans is an anti plan. It's a way an effect to avoid thinking about things the education question that Luda tune the opening comments that we've come to think about as I'm very much in favor of education. I think it's important. I think learning is important. But I think it's also very important ask why you're learning what is it for and and one of the strange paradoxes in the United States and many other countries educations, become increasingly status driven credential where you simply get it in order to get other things. And it is I think. The purist version of the indefinite future, and you can think of things like going to business schools. Maybe the most indefinite version of education, where why do you go to business school in order to become a businessman what sort of business doesn't matter? If you had a specific idea that would actually be seen as a bad thing because that'd be like you were too narrow to focused, and so we just create all these people who have these these very general backgrounds and you end up with this paradox. Where what do you do at the end of your high school years? Don't know you go to college. Would you do at the end of your call jeers? Don't know you go to graduate school. What do you do at the end of your grad school years? You don't know. But you get some sort of job not job you want to do the rest of your life..

Facebook Peter junior high school high school Stig broder Sohn United States Dan Preston pysche Luda
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

04:28 min | 2 years ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"We study the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most we keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. All right. Welcome to the investors podcasts as usual McCarthy. My co dig broder sin. My name is Preston pysche. Like we said in the introduction. We're going to be covering Michael Dell. And so we're just going to jump straight into the questions. Mr Dell was asked what was the story behind starting up del? This was his response when I was freshman with the university of Texas. I was going to school at every intention of going to school, and I was kind of playing around with this as a hobby while I was going to school. It was sort of a really fun hobby for me because you know, I was really interested in computers and kind of selling upgrade kits and, you know, Hansen computers, and, you know, my parents kind of go into this, and they were really upset because they thought that I should really only focus on going to college. My father's a doctor my brothers. Dr. What's doctors in the family? So I was. Going to be a doctor. And so they were very very upset with me, Michael, go, get your priorities straight. You know, so around thanksgiving of nineteen Eighty-three. My parents kind of made me commit that. I wasn't going to do this computer business anymore is only going to focus on my studies. And so for that lasted about ten days, and it was during that time that I decided that I was going to start a company actually, you know, my parents kind of telling me to stop doing. It is probably would cause the company to get created if they hadn't done that it might have just been a hobby, but what I kind of reflected on those ten days. I really love this, and it was enormously. Exciting tremendously fun. And so like any other eighteen year old who wants to do what their parents don't want him to do. You just don't tell them. That's what I did. I kind of went about path to start the company without really telling my parents. I kind of moved into a larger apartment that really high ceilings. So I could come to stack things up, and you know, manage to conceal it from for quite some time. I basically kind of came to arrangement with my parents. I said look I really want to go do this. And I know you don't do it. But I've checked with the university of Texas and the way it works at UT is that you can take a semester off and you can come back. And so I said we'll want you will agree to this all take the semester off the fall of eighty four no semester. And I'll go and do this. And if it doesn't work out go back to school, and if it does just keep doing, and so they they agreed if they hadn't agreed probably would have done it anyway. So may have eighty four I Inc the company and off ago. I just love the story. I don't really know what to say because the story till so much. I think my comment on this. This would be if you're a parent, and you have a child that is going against the grain, and you're trying so hard to push them in a certain direction. You might wanna just replay that story because sometimes the best way to exercise control is to provide free will right in this scenario the harder. The parents pushed the harder he went the other way. That's a cool story. I think for every time you would play a story like that the hit rate or the success rate might be one out of ten, and so I think that's hard for people to keep in their mind as well as like Stig, and I are providing an example of a success a major success like you couldn't get a bigger success. And that was a story, but we could probably go and record Joe shmoe who's now not owning his own business in working for some other firm who has that exact same story, and he wasn't successful. I think it's a great story. It's a cautionary story at the same time. But I think it's a common story that you see from the people that we study they almost all start out like that. It's really neat. Yeah. I also feel that s the Panera might be east for me to say..

Michael Dell university of Texas Joe shmoe Preston pysche McCarthy I Inc UT ten days eighteen year
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

03:26 min | 2 years ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Sin. My name is Preston pysche and were accompanied by our good friends. Toby Carlisle and Hari Ramchandra guys. Welcome back to the show. Great to have you here. I know I always really look forward to these mastermind discussion. So we're thrilled to have you back script to be here. Thank you. We all sent out our picks for this quarters mastermind discussion. Do we have any volunteers to go? I I know we always the beat over who's gonna go first, but anyone who's really excited to talk about their pick. I'm definitely not excited about mon-. But I'll take a swing at it. Because you guys a warm up and get nastier as we go along. So while while everybody's sort of still little bit nervous about the start of the co let me let me do Mon Mon HP Q HP the printing business of the oh combined entity before it spun out. So I bought this post spin in two thousand sixteen something like that. And it was trading for about eleven bucks. And that's. Twenty two dollars. So it's up a lot. And I haven't seen it for years for a couple of years, and it sort of flooded back into my screen. So I think it's kind of it's interesting thirty all billion dollar market cap price settings currently about six point eight which is shaped IHOP q-. It's been hired. It's been low the reason that it's a little bit cheaper this and compression and their EPS. So it's likely that had freed twenty-five next year. It's going to be low than that throwing plenty of free cash flow paying a dividend buying back stock just one of the reasons that I like this business, I think that the have a good attitude toward shareholders. So they do buy back stock that do pay dividends. And I think that you're gonna get a lot of the return out of this stock from shell the friendly maneuvers like that twelve percent of the return of the lesser uses come from those returns of capital, whether it be dividend ship back, and I think that will continue on because it seems to be throwing cash, and it seems to be doing pretty well frost settings at six point eight say is below the five year ever. Wjr. And at a pretty substantial discount to every stock in the index, and it certainly below where it was lost year in the before. So head some compression in the stock price as well. You know, many of their concerns about it. Pretty simple estate one of them is that it's carrying more debt than I would ordinarily hitch to you guys. So the balance sheet is a little bit weak. Then I typically like to see, and there's also there's just bowling that balance sheet, the book valley doesn't tell you quite how bad it is. Because some of that book value was goodwill. And so it looks like it's about a six hundred million dollar negative book value sort of six point six billion dollars of that includes some amid the six point six billion dollars that includes goodwill and other things that I wouldn't really count on the positive side of do think that it's pretty steady is this the risks just general sort of macro risks at something really nasty happens in the economy. But I think he's been around for a long time. They making princes hardware stuff that nobody really wants to be in any more. But I think that this is kind of a muddle. For a business. It'll just keep muddling through and you'll get I don't have great hopes for the returns. But I think that you can sort of make eight ten percent over the next five years because I think the valuation stocks currently trading at twenty two dollars a seat valuations around thirty five dollars, even assuming a little bit of demonstration in the UK going backwards for a little bit here. I just think it's too cheap. Where it is. I think that's about a fifty percent upside muddled for business with this sort of looking off the shells with the proviso that the balance sheets a little bit wake. And if we really say some nasty macro than have to revisit it..

Preston pysche Toby Carlisle Hari Ramchandra UK six billion dollars six hundred million dollar thirty five dollars Twenty two dollars twenty two dollars eight ten percent billion dollar twelve percent fifty percent five years five year
"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

03:26 min | 2 years ago

"preston pysche" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Sin. My name is Preston pysche and were accompanied by our good friends. Toby Carlisle and Hari Ramchandra guys. Welcome back to the show. Great to have you here. I know I always really look forward to these mastermind discussion. So we're thrilled to have you back script to be here. Thank you. We all sent out our picks for this quarters mastermind discussion. Do we have any volunteers to go? I I know we always the beat over who's gonna go first, but anyone who's really excited to talk about their pick. I'm definitely not excited about mon-. But I'll take a swing at it. Because you guys a warm up and get nastier as we go along. So while while everybody's sort of still little bit nervous about the start of the co let me let me do Mon Mon HP Q HP the printing business of the oh combined entity before it spun out. So I bought this post spin in two thousand sixteen something like that. And it was trading for about eleven bucks. And that's. Twenty two dollars. So it's up a lot. And I haven't seen it for years for a couple of years, and it sort of flooded back into my screen. So I think it's kind of it's interesting thirty all billion dollar market cap price settings currently about six point eight which is shaped IHOP q-. It's been hired. It's been low the reason that it's a little bit cheaper this and compression and their EPS. So it's likely that had freed twenty-five next year. It's going to be low than that throwing plenty of free cash flow paying a dividend buying back stock just one of the reasons that I like this business, I think that the have a good attitude toward shareholders. So they do buy back stock that do pay dividends. And I think that you're gonna get a lot of the return out of this stock from shell the friendly maneuvers like that twelve percent of the return of the lesser uses come from those returns of capital, whether it be dividend ship back, and I think that will continue on because it seems to be throwing cash, and it seems to be doing pretty well frost settings at six point eight say is below the five year ever. Wjr. And at a pretty substantial discount to every stock in the index, and it certainly below where it was lost year in the before. So head some compression in the stock price as well. You know, many of their concerns about it. Pretty simple estate one of them is that it's carrying more debt than I would ordinarily hitch to you guys. So the balance sheet is a little bit weak. Then I typically like to see, and there's also there's just bowling that balance sheet, the book valley doesn't tell you quite how bad it is. Because some of that book value was goodwill. And so it looks like it's about a six hundred million dollar negative book value sort of six point six billion dollars of that includes some amid the six point six billion dollars that includes goodwill and other things that I wouldn't really count on the positive side of do think that it's pretty steady is this the risks just general sort of macro risks at something really nasty happens in the economy. But I think he's been around for a long time. They making princes hardware stuff that nobody really wants to be in any more. But I think that this is kind of a muddle. For a business. It'll just keep muddling through and you'll get I don't have great hopes for the returns. But I think that you can sort of make eight ten percent over the next five years because I think the valuation stocks currently trading at twenty two dollars a seat valuations around thirty five dollars, even assuming a little bit of demonstration in the UK going backwards for a little bit here. I just think it's too cheap. Where it is. I think that's about a fifty percent upside muddled for business with this sort of looking off the shells with the proviso that the balance sheets a little bit wake. And if we really say some nasty macro than have to revisit it..

Preston pysche Toby Carlisle Hari Ramchandra UK six billion dollars six hundred million dollar thirty five dollars Twenty two dollars twenty two dollars eight ten percent billion dollar twelve percent fifty percent five years five year