1 Episode results for "President Michael Beschloss"

Presidential race tight as six states remain uncalled

The Beat with Ari Melber

51:56 min | 11 months ago

Presidential race tight as six states remain uncalled

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Nbc and get twenty percents off your first order. That's b. o. M. b. a. s. dot com slash. Nbc bombay dot com slash nbc. I want to send a good evening to everyone. Around the nation. I'm ari melber. Anchoring special coverage here on the be with ari melber as america watches six crucial shapes to see when we will get an answer to the question will be the next president united states. This is all about the facts. Not opinions or timing. We'll be tracking the facts for you tonight for as long as it takes. A joe biden is in the lead numbers suggest. He's on the cost of winning the presidency. Because of these facts he leaves most of the six states. That are still uncalled. He's taken the biggest lead here of the week in pennsylvania today now that one win if he got it alone. Put him over the two hundred seventy electoral college votes. He needs right now. We're tracking about forty thousand more votes left to count from philadelphia which is a democratic stronghold. Then let's take you through it where officials say new numbers could be out this hour if they are will have them for you. We also have a new. Nbc decision desk characterization of nevada it is simply quote too close to call with biden leading. Then there's more bad news for donald trump in georgia longtime red state. Where biden has pulled ahead by a razor thin four thousand votes. Wow that has officials already prepping for a recount under state law. Now take it all together here. And you have joe biden up in these remaining and bluer states like pennsylvania and up in other battlegrounds while donald trump only leads in north carolina. That state alone by the way would not get him to victory and there have been many twists and turns today and there are signs. Some signs of joe biden may have been preparing for a speech. Tonight there in wilmington but the biden team is saying at this hour that they're not taking anything for granted. It is unclear from our reporting if we would hear from tonight or not so. Many elections are of course called on election night. And it may seem sometimes like america's just waiting around now but let me be clear with you tonight before i turn to our experts. This is not a weight. This is work. Elections officials are working all around the nation right now and tonight as our observers who represented by both parties in all these different states to keep counting to inspect to recount. Yes when provided by law and to provide facts and transparency there is no political or media deadline for that process which is of course as it should be. There are later legal deadlines under state law in the constitution but those are ways out and the outstanding states are well ahead of those deadlines so let me keep it very simple. We will keep working. We will keep counting and we will keep reporting for as long as this takes this time for facts and reason and no time to lose our cool now. We turn immediately alley. Who is of course. Host sean. Msnbc but more importantly is filling. The big shoes of steve kornacki at the big board under the shift work that we have on a very very long running election night. Turn into election week alley. We saw a preview of some of those numbers. Walk us through the rest. Yeah let's talk about the second. This is the path to two hundred and seventy two hundred and fifty three to joe biden at the morning at the moment two hundred and fourteen electoral college votes to donald trump. Let me tell you why. We're also obsessed with pennsylvania. Because if i put this into joe biden's call them. It gets the to seventy-three if pennsylvania goes to joe biden. He wins the whole thing. Let's take it out of his column for now and let's put it in donald trump's call them. Let's say we go read. It doesn't get donald trump to seventy he's gotta pennsylvania. It's gotta get north carolina. Gotta get georgia is gotta get alaska. That's going to be a while before we figure that out north carolina's going to be a little while still two hundred sixty eight so he that point. Donald trump still needs to get either nevada which got through to seventy four. Or let's just give them arizona for second. Take nevada way which got some two to seventy nine. So that's number one. If you look at the pats victory right now based on what's available. Joe biden has nine combinations. That will get them to do. Seventy donald trump has three combinations. That'll get him to to to seventy all of which there's number one there's number two number three. They all have to have pennsylvania. So that's why pennsylvania is important as it is. There's one path by the way that results in a tie. A tie goes to congress but the way it works is that a tie would probably go to donald trump. So that's not. What a lot of people who are looking to see. Joe biden winner looking for pennsylvania too close to call right now with ninety six percent of the vote and we are continually expecting more votes to come in including some from right here in philadelphia county. Ninety five percent of the votes are in philadelphia county. Joe biden's by about eighty one percent to eighteen percent. He's got a lead of four hundred and twenty eight thousand in philadelphia. We may be getting thirty or forty thousand more votes in this in this area and if they break the same way these are breaking than that'll be interesting we're expecting votes. I've been sitting on this for a while. allegany county. Where pittsburg pittsburg is. We've got ninety five percent in their hundred and twenty eight thousand vote. Lead for joe biden. That's not in the other two issues we've got across pennsylvania are that we have mail in ballots probably about one hundred thousand of them to count right now. They are breaking heavily toward a joe. Biden's that should increase his lead. It's only fourteen thousand in the state right now with ninety six percent in however and there's a very active discussion going on on twitter. There are probably a simile number. Similar number of what's called provisional ballots eighty five thousand one hundred thousand. I'm hearing that. What happens in pennsylvania ari. Is that if you called. If you ask for a mail in ballot then you decided you weren't going to mail in that ballot because you were worried about what would happen and you go to vote in person but you didn't bring not only the ballot but the envelope. It came in and the security envelope. They would give you a provisional ballot. Those are getting counted last and there are some people who are saying that those are breaking for donald trump in a heavier pattern. They're breaking for joe biden. We don't know this to be true by the way. That's anecdotes evidence at the moment and i'm hearing all sorts of things so that's what the issue is in pennsylvania. Does joe biden's leave. Go from fourteen thousand up as we get those mail ballots in or down as we get the provisional ballots in and we just do not know the answer to that but we get pennsylvania the ball over if joe biden gets it. If trump gets it he's still alive right as just reinforce even with other states outstanding. It's so vital to the few pass that trump has left because just that rich right that rich hall throw. Votes allie allie. I've worked with you for a long time. I've seen you do a lot of different things. You're good at this. But why not wear the khakis. If steve's out why not where the let me tell you why. There's a whole lot of why not steve. Kornacki is now a national institution. All my only role is to try and keep him sleeping for a few hours. When this really gets hot matters he's awake to be back with us so i'm not even going to pretend to be a little bit. Like like steve kornacki. Well we think you're both doing great For as long as it takes. Allie val checking in with you all night. Thank you we turn now. Nbc's jacob soboroff live in that crucial state of las vegas nevada. There and we're joined by someone who knows exactly how to plan for these paths cornell. Belcher was the chief pollster. Victoria's obama campaigns cornell. I want your view and what we just saw the map. We begin on the ground in nevada. Jacob are a little bit of trouble hearing you but let me just lay out where we are as this moment basically We have a large pool of votes. Here that are still yet to be counted. We expect another Trench say ballots. Come at around four o'clock local time seven o'clock eastern time so not that long from now this morning we got about thirty one thousand later today. We don't know actually how many we know that there are about sixty thousand outstanding Vote by mail ballots. That were dropped off or either mailed in The margin was eight thousand yesterday for it. Went up to twelve thousand. It's now around twenty something thousand just over twenty thousand And the beyond those In counts there's provisional ballots so When i was out brian williams earlier we were talking about who these folks are. That are in line. Why is it looked like a line of people as if it were election day. Several days beyond election day and the answer is to To answer as a matter of fact here secure their balance and that means people who they have signed about a signature didn't match and what contacted by the local elections officials were asked to come in and verify that it was indeed them. The other group is the provisional ballots. That's sixty thousand additional sixty thousand people who voted but didn't necessarily You know made all the rules and regulations on election day and the parties have received. A list of those provisional ballots had been contacting so when i was with bryant we heard from republicans are also democrats in line and the the actual party apparatus here has called them instead. Look if you don't know for sure if your vote was counted you can show up. You can show up in person and double check and make sure wanted to know as many of the people that are in line right now and are going in our walking out saying hey the good news is my vote was counted so While i did say that it's you know it may appear concerning once people come out the door. A lot of people are having their issues resolved and by no means are the amount of people in line greater than this merging that we're looking at right now for joe biden really important context as we really see the process. Play out jacob soboroff. Thank you so much as mentioned. We have obama pollster cornell with us and we're bringing in new york times columnist michelle goldberg. Who has been a big part of our coverage at this whole year. Cornell has promised i turn to you first you see that many combinations on the map iv reemphasize something we said even before tuesday night which that tuesday versus friday is not a constitutional or electoral difference. It may have other feelings and everyone's entitled their feelings but as you look over the time whether we get more calls tonight or into the weekend and next week what are you see in the coalition that is assembled there and is it too early to say whether or you see an obama biden coalition resuscitate. That's a good question Clarification is partly bryant obama team. I was not chief pulse. Apartment very brilliant team with good people. You're gonna try to To share the credit which we always appreciate. How about you just call you. Ceo of victorious obama polling looking poster attacked by on my friends The coalition is you. Remember that in two thousand and eight. Obama garnered forty three percent of the white well on his way on his way to victory. It looks like joe biden is going to garner around forty two percent of the white vote so in some ways This his his coalition is wider than the less than obama's two thousand eight coalition. And when you see the states that are coming online and safe like georgia. They're sort of key central to to to what's happening right now. Those are also states. That are that are very very diverse states. So in certain ways a biden's what's lewis is gonna be a winning coalition. I suspect he's going to garner out fifty two percent of the vote his winning coalition is gonna be even more diverse and more dependent on diversity. The neat little brock obama's was in two thousand eight really interesting. Michelle will look. I think that one of the most interesting things that's going to come out of this election. Is that what you see that. When some of these sunbelt states go blue they it happens. Very rapidly right. It was not that long ago. That virginia was republican state than a purple state. Now a pretty safe blue state You can say something. Similar about colorado arizona years ago it would have been unsinkable for arizona to have two democratic senators birthplace of barry goldwater. You couldn't imagine it and now. I think you have the beginning of something similar happening with georgia on at the start of donald trump's administration in safety abrahams without. They're saying that georgia had this potential. But i don't think a lot of other people saw and now you have georgia. Even though joe biden's lead very narrow georgia looks like it's gonna be in the blue column at the senate race that has to senate races are two senate round-ups coming up that could determine control of the senate and the beta. Joe biden's presidency right and that goes to what what that coequal branch ultimately Staff like michelle. There was a lot of concern. About what donald trump would do if he was losing with the government. And what i've been reporting legally is not only the brick wall he's added into but we should note not that it's something he gets a cookie for rewarded for but there hasn't been any great strategy of trying to use the white house counsel or the doj or federal agents and public. Anything like that. And then you have people like mitch. Mcconnell who using rhetoric that might play both ways basically saying things that would seem to lead to donald trump's ultimate potential loss which is count the votes and move on. Here was mitch mcconnell today out a statement on tweet twitter this morning that i think you all garden and beyond that. I don't have anything to say on that. I think this is ultimately going to be decided. Exactly what i said in my tweet and the tweet michelle just said every vote should be counted. Look i think so. Far even though the votes in the swing states are very narrow as the count goes on. Their trump is not really within cheating distance than that was what people were worried about. People worried about for example if the vote in pennsylvania came down to you votes that came in during this three day deadline after election day. Bad republicans have challenged you know and there's an attempt it goes votes proved to be decisive than you would see a lot more scope for action From trump at the justice department and potentially from the supreme court. Right now there just hasn't been any Group about Ballots that they can credibly challenge or threatened to seize because again even though biden's lead right now is narrow. It's it's kind of. It's normal it's not coming from provisional ballots not coming from questionable ballots. It's coming from you know just sort of the ordinary counting ballot all really good points. Michelle goldberg thank you as always cornell come back later in the program let me tell folks what's coming up. This is special coverage. We have a breakout of trump's legal strategy with the ultimate supreme court litigator. neil cacho. Also we're going to show you what's actually emerging today. Something we didn't know days ago. What's historic about. Joe biden's current edge in the total votes in america and new sourcing trump world discussing an angry and despondent president. Michael beschloss heather. Mcghee join us live. I'm very excited to hear their perspective right after this break. Welcome back welcome back. I remember with our special coverage right. Now we've been counting the vote in these six states. But i want to turn to something we haven't gotten to yet. Did you know that. Joe biden has now secured the highest total vote in american history. If you count it up. It's seventy four million votes and growing donald trump's roughly sixty nine point nine million that would be of course as well the second highest total vote. Ever think about it this way. Take a look at the popular. Vote percentages that presidential election winners have gotten in every cycle since nineteen ninety two. This is pretty important. Because i'm gonna you through a clinton beat an incumbent. President bush just forty three percent of course three way. Race with perot in two thousand george w. bush came in with just under forty eight percent. That was less than gore. Got but he won the electoral college. And you get up to away which we were just discussing with cornell belcher you had obama's super high number there fifty three percent of the boat and in sixteen donald trump was backed down to just forty six percent also last and hillary clinton the total vote but won the electoral college. So i want to show you this context and take a look at this reveal. Joe biden right now with fifty point five percent of the popular vote. Why does that matter well for one thing. It's one of the highest. We've ever seen a candidate get in this. Modern era of the last thirty years against an incumbent and it suggests a strong mandate from here for context. I want to bring in michael beschloss. Nbc news presidential historian and heather mcghee from color of change michael. There's many things that we're still waiting on. We've all emphasized that in our reporting but the total vote also matters a great deal and whether you whether you count in analysis as a reflection of huge support for joe biden or huge antipathy for donald trump to two cycles running. I'm curious if you as a historian can put in context what it means to see that high vote share. It means just as you've said already that there is a big mandate for the man who looks as if he's going to be the new president with that kind of a vote that looms so much larger than anything we've seen before in american history and the other thing is that look at the turn out on tuesday everything we are hearing suggests that this may be the most or at least in modern times close to the most people voting turning out of eligible voters that we've ever seen the last time that happened in modern times nine hundred and sixty kennedy versus nixon height of the cold war even four years ago. You'd think that hillary clinton versus donald trump lot of people would have turned out. It has life league that the turnout on tuesday was much larger. That means enthusiasm for joe biden. It also is a really big sign of health in democracy. And that's a good thing. Yeah democracy and heather so much of this becomes personalized or even cartoonish in the narratives. We talk about who presents well or who's beloved or who has a sturdy base even if it's a smaller base. I'm curious what you think about in cornell alluded to the diverse and multiracial coalition that biden build according to what we can see and again. We're not calling those six states but in the total vote heather when you see a level of support that's higher than trump right now higher than trump last time higher than the bushes higher than bush years. I mean higher than bill clinton. Yes in a three way. I'm curious what that tells you about that. Emerging national majority. Well i think you should also peel back and look at what this overwhelming majority this multiracial majority That draws from people of all ages that really reflects the diversity that is this country's greatest asset. You also need to look at. What are the policies. That joe biden ran on right. I'm those are also ones that. Get six in seven out of ten voters support things like taxing the wealthy a big green jobs program to address climate change putting care. Childcare paid family leave at the center of our economy and yes racial justice issues about police accountability like ending qualified immunity for for cops who abuse the badge in. so it's not just about blue versus read it's also about one. Vision is sidey and that is clearly. The democrats clearly have an edge in having been able to articulate a bold vision certainly in contrast to to the republican vision which so far has been you know cutting taxes for the wealthy and you know bundling pandemic pretending like it doesn't exist leading to hundreds of thousands of people losing their lives. Yeah and this also goes to the writing on the wall. Michael because we've seen republicans here not rushing into help. What some see as quoting reporting what they see as it potentially losing gambit washington post trump turns angry despondent as possible defeat looms some in the present orbit including his family incensed that more republicans were not echoing his comments and publicly fighting for his reelection. Of course what. We're hearing from some republicans and other conservatives. Michael as they fought for his reelection they fought hard. They think they're losing and they're not necessarily interested in passing certain lines for something that is on the way to a loss again reporting where they're at they're also watching a range of of data and sources as we do which include for them fox news which has also at times reported on what's coming in their view take a look it's agonizing for the president. He sees a elite of seven hundred thousand dwindle every single hour. I think this was so you're talking about the popular vote and joe biden once again We'll we'll win the popular vote. We know that for sure if you make a call for joe biden a to sixty four. The math is pretty obvious in pennsylvania that would give him two hundred and eighty four and he would become. The president elect of the united states. That is correct. Michael well i think what donald trump is going to have very quickly in the next couple of days as the experience is going to be like picking up a telephone and there's no dial tone is used to everyone. Jumping is used to everyone being afraid of him. He's used to being able to intimidate members of congress. He will be absolutely astounded at how unintimidated people are of him. You know the party is over for him. It's going to be a big emotional shock for him is probably having that already. It is for almost. Every president who's defeated for reelection doesn't happen that often but for donald trump who buy everything that we hear has been living for four years nearly a world with delusion where people are giving him. You know folders of material that suggest that is more popular than he really is. He's been living in a dream world and the dream for him has just turned into a nightmare. Starkly put i wanna thank michael beschloss and had them mcgee. We're moving on a little quicker than plan because we have some news from the big board alley. She we said we'd go back you if we had anything new and we do. Go ahead sir. It's not a lot new but it's beano at this moment when we were looking for little bits of information to come in particularly nevada and arizona where joe biden currently has lead. We've got ninety three percent of the votes in in nevada. The difference is elite of about twenty two and a half thousand by joe biden. We're really looking at two counties here we're looking at the county in which reno exists and the county. I'm sorry this is The clark county where las vegas clark county. We just got some numbers and we're still only at eighty eight percent of the total. We got about six thousand votes in eighty seven hundred votes in most of them went to joe biden's his lead in clark. County is increased. Seventy seven thousand seven hundred and forty two about twenty nine hundred votes went to donald trump. There i want go to neighboring neighboring arizona. Right now tucson pima county. We also saw about nine thousand votes. Come in we've got about ninety five percent of the cow in right now th this was actually a bit of a split but thirty three hundred votes went to joe biden thirty six hundred votes going to donald trump here so it narrowed the lead a little bit. Joe biden still ahead though by a lot in pima county ninety seven thousand eight hundred eighty eight hundred and sixty-six votes but bottom line hasn't changed the map much. We still do not have decisive numbers out of nevada. Arizona georgia north carolina pennsylvania. Of course alaska. We're gonna be waiting for a while so no major changes right now but there have been some updates. I will tell you. We are waiting for more updates out of pennsylvania where we have ninety six percent of the vote in. We're probably looking for about two hundred thousand more votes here about half. Roughly our mailing about half are provisional. These are very rough numbers making up. Remember this is really important. Because joe biden leads pennsylvania by about fifteen thousand votes right now. So how those remaining two hundred thousand votes break is going to be really important. The mail in ballots tend to be breaking very heavily toward joe biden. What we do not know and there is disputing analysis about. This is how the provisional ballots are breaking. Are they breaking the same way. Are they breaking roughly evenly for the for the candidates or they be breaking toward donald trump. Lots of opinions out there. I don't have any evidence. Well and big picture to your point. It's heading into friday night on the east coast. That is the biggest margin that joe biden has had yet all week in that crucial state of pennsylvania. So that's big just just if we want to top line the takeaway number bigger number than four hours ago bigger number than this morning and i look at it. I'm just looking for numbers to come in. They haven't come in allegany county. That's pittsburgh where. Joe biden has one hundred twenty eight thousand lead and we are looking for about forty thousand votes to come in from philadelphia county. Ninety five percent in joe biden has a four hundred and twenty eight thousand vote lead. Then i will tell you. Philadelphia county has been very very consistent. So the idea that there are forty thousand more votes to come in. Look at how these are generally breaking eighty to eighteen so that lead may increase those numbers. Right as you say. We're we're watching something that gets higher and higher stakes for donald trump. This is bad news for donald trump. Because he is looking to make up the count so the longer it goes the few votes that are left with him. Having to turn what you're showing their on those counts. That's tough for him. But anything can happen now. Before i before i cut away. Let's go back to nevada and just give us the full top line statewide nevada. Because as you said it was a small update but every little bit matters right now. I'm curious show a statewide ninety. Three percent of the votes are in and we think there may be another one hundred thousand to come in. Joe biden is leading at this point. Look how closely this forty nine point. Eight forty eight the lead right now. He's twenty two thousand six hundred and fifty seven votes so again when you look at the various paths to victory if things go down the way they are right now. Joe biden maintains his lead in arizona and nevada. There you go. He gets right to two seventy without even thinking about pennsylvania. There is no path to victory left for donald trump without pennsylvania which is why all of our energy is there if he doesn't win pennsylvania job a donald trump cannot be reelected president. Joe biden doesn't need pennsylvania to win all very clear at the big board and as mentioned we're going to keep coming back anytime you get numbers alabel sheet. Stay close up. Next to trump insider dubbing the legal effort at this point of quote clown show. We have a fact check at a very special guest the one and only late neil kochav former acting solicitor general arguing before the supreme court bringing those insights to you right. After this break this holiday season more people will be mailing stuff than ever before that means. The post office is going to be busy. You don't have time for that stamps. Dot com brings the post office and now ups shipping. Right to your computer simply print official. Us postage twenty four seven for any letter any package any class of male anywhere. You wanna send once. Your mail is ready to schedule a pickup or drop it off. It's that simple with stamps. 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No matter where you're hiring from ziprecruiter does the work for you. Ziprecruiter's matching technology scans thousands resumes and profiles to identify the most qualified people for your job. And if you're really interested in candidate you can even invite them to apply for your job with one. Click ziprecruiter sends them an email for you. It's no wonder that four out of five employers who post on ziprecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day one day. And right now you can try ziprecruiter for free at ziprecruiter dot com slash nbc. That's ziprecruiter dot com slash. Nbc all you need is wifi to try it for free. Just go to ziprecruiter dot com slash ziprecruiter. The smartest way to hire. I think what the president needs to do with franklin put his big boy pants on. He needs to acknowledge the fact that he lost the mayor of philadelphia today telling president trump what to do when it's over respond to the president's false claims last night about this race which are drawing headlines like these today rebuking those falsehoods fact checking the actual count. Even the fox news sister publication of new york post hit trump as downcast and making baseless claims about fraud pushback matters because today trump backed off a little bit in a written statement saying he'll use every aspect of the law to guarantee. The american people have confidence in government in the election. And any candidate may. Of course requests recounts within the required margin or file suits about the process. I want to tell you to more trump lawsuits. Toss today for lack of evidence in michigan and georgia which may be a problem for trump's pending suits in nevada which only offer arguments about signatures but lack much evidence. Then there is one case that might matter in theory about mail ballots pennsylvania but here trump got very bad news in that state's new numbers it turns out even if trump were to win and get those ballots. Toss the number ranges to about five hundred ballots in larger counties. in fact top. pennsylvania explained it as you see quote unless it's super close. It won't be making or breaking this one way or another. So that's a challenge to a few hundred votes per county when biden leads. You see here by over fourteen thousand votes. That official update underscores how these cases turn on law and votes pennsylvania officials stating that even if trump would prevail on the law an outcome. That might even be hard to imagine. He would still lose. Because of the number of people voted against him to paraphrase sean carter. We don't believe you you need more people join me now is neil kochav the former us solicitor general in the obama administration. Neil walk us through the facts and the law starting in pennsylvania. Okay so i think you know he needs more than people. Ari mean legal scholars. From time immemorial have studied claims like these from blackstone dolores hale and i think they described these claims what the technical legal term butkus. That's got here. Basically so with respect to pennsylvania claim is that the pennsylvania legislature sets the ballot deadline. And they said it for tuesday in. It's only the pennsylvania supreme court that extended it to today and somehow they've got a theory that violates the constitution. It's a terrible theory. it's never been accepted by the supreme court in more than two hundred years. But your lead up just said the real problem with that. Is the facts here. Because even if you toss out all those ballots from tuesday on which aren't part of the pennsylvania accounts that were looking at on even still. It's not even nearly enough to make up the difference. So i think lawyers basically say if you've got the facts on your sift if you don't have the facts on your side pound the low if you don't have the law on your side pound the facts a problem for trump is he's got neither the law nor the facts in pennsylvania or frankly anywhere else many other lawsuits that have been filed or really at the edges. They're like tossing out fifty three ballots here because they weren't on a particular table or things like that they're technicalities biden has right now the force of the american people behind the force of the voters and what trump is doing is trying to send his lawyers to go in and say stop counting. Stop do the style. Don't those people. It's a very very tough argument. One a lot of americans. Neil are watching this tonight and this week but not necessarily tracking this all year. They've heard the donald trump puts three people on the supreme court and one term and that there's a republican appointed majority on the court and so they don't necessarily think about it the way you do it. Someone who's literally argued dozens of times before that court that while yes there are times where ideology and background may matter. I i would say. Can you walk us through. Why the supreme court regardless of party sees itself as a last resort on this stuff because if you only heard donald trump this week and plenty of people get their information from him. He seemed to fancifully wrongly believe. It's a first resort that the supreme court wants to come in and deal with all this yes and the whole concept of law is exactly that that it's not politics something else so we set the rules in advance and we apply them evenhandedly. That's why lady. Justice is blindfolded. And why americans now have that view. Ra because of people like donald trump's legal advisers who yesterday went on tv and said oh. Donald trump put three justices on the court. We knew you know. We're hoping amy barrett comes through for us and things like that and you know apart from this election apart from everything. Trump has done the idea that you have a president and his advisors out there and saying this is our supreme court our pocket and things like that it is so corrosive. And that's why the chief justice rebuked him a couple of years ago and said look through. Our trump judges are obama. Judges are just judges in america. That's the greatness of our system. And i know people are watching it right now and thinking. Oh you know these political supreme court justices are gonna do something now. You gotta have a viable legal claim. Trump has again these legal term butkus. Yeah neil koch. Aw the clarity and that rarefied experience of having argued and won and lost cases before the high court. Thank you sir. Be calling on you in the days ahead. I have to fit in a break but we have a lot more including going inside bein. World tonight with a special guest who has been at his side as the numbers build towards not a call but a lot of optimism there on the cost of the presidency. Hey i'm andy if you don't know me it's probably because i'm not famous but i did start a men's grooming company called harry's the idea for harry's came out of a frustrating experience i had buying razor blades. Most brands were overpriced over designed and out of touch. At harry's our approach is simple. Here's our secret. We make sharp durable blades and sell them at honest prices for as low as two dollars. Each we care about quality so much that we do some crazy things like a world class german blade factory obsessing over every detail means we're confident and offering a one hundred percent quality guarantee. Millions of guys have already made the switch to harry's so thank you if you're one of them and if you're not we hope you give us a try with this special offer. Get a harry starter. Set with a five blade. Razor waited handle shave gel and travel cover offered just three bucks plus free shipping just go to harrys dot com and enter five zero five zero at checkout. That's harrys dot com code. Five zero five zero enjoy. I'm ari melber. Welcome back to our msnbc special election coverage here you go live pictures from the biden headquarters in wilmington delaware. A joe biden was at one point today. Expect to speak tonight. That was reported campaign. Officials are telling us now tonight. It is unlikely unless they're independent calls making him the projected winner of the electoral college and the white house. The biden transition website also launching this week with reverence to the pandemic the economy climate change and racial injustice. Of course you can't have a transition. Tell you the president-elect right now. The race is not formerly called not nbc or anywhere else that trump team also saying they're not preparing any concession yet. Either i want to get right to some special guests. I'm joined by paolo. Most who is a former assistant. Vice president biden's chief of staff and a former special assistant to dr jill biden. She knows her way well around that family and their work and we're joined by cornell belcher from the obama team as well. Both of you have a firm understanding of what kinds of pins and needles. There can be on a night like this for a campaign. I wanna go right to you. Though paula on the on the biden's and specifically of course joe biden as the candidate in the lead. How do you think from your knowledge of him. He's approaching this and something even as as straightforward but as high stake says. When does he speak again. What does tonight look like if there's no call. What does this weekend look like against an unusual incumbent president. Who's behind right. I think a lot of people are have that question when his job. I don't speak and why isn't he doing it sooner. Why not now. We need this. Those are all valid questions. But i think the reason why people voted or joe biden is precisely because of this moment because in in moments of chaos and uncertainty he offers communist read in moments of division. He offers unity and i think the most important thing that people are looking forward. Are those promises that he made and what i do and again i mean i am now out of that world but i jerry. Different different aspect. But i can't say with certainty that joe biden is a man that keeps his promise right. He's a man that keeps his words and so the promises that he made many black and brown folks of creating a pathway to citizenship in the first hundred days of reuniting those kids a of passing the equality act. Those are all things that people are looking forward and we can't wait to see that happen and again these are things that joe biden is keep in mind but i'm assuming they're right now he's doing. What any leader should do which is take a step back in see what the country is telling you and looking at these states and understanding that it is black and brown folks that are propelling. I've only caught him in and i apologize. Because koernke's back at the big board pennsylvania up we gotta go to that. Steve take it away. Are we just got the Mail absentee ballot from north hampton county in pennsylvania. In the effect has been biden's lead goes up again. Sixteen thousand seven hundred and eighty four is the statewide lead for joe biden now again. These continuous incremental climbs for joe biden as this vote comes in from a parts around the state up to sixteen thousand seven hundred eighty four. Right now steve. That would be that at sixteen carry. That's the highest. I was saying this earlier in the hour. But it's higher now that would be the highest margin biden has had in pennsylvania yet. Yeah and you can expect it likely to get higher here considerably higher because again just the trend here of where the outstanding vote is where the outstanding mayo vote is the absentee vote that continuous streak here of that being heavily pro biden. You can expect that to get up there considerably the other question you know that we have been talking about then is. There's this other category of the provisional ballots in pennsylvania. And it's a topic that might be a little bit more complicated this year than it's been in the past used to be a much smaller number. Two traditionally a much smaller number of provisional ballots. We think there might be something in the neighborhood of one hundred thousand provisional ballots this year that's vastly more than you'd normally have in an election. There is a possibility here and this is i. Think one of the reasons why there might be some delay here in folks officially declaring winners in pennsylvania. But i think there is a desire to see some of that provisional votes start to come in and see if the the pattern would have to be when these provisionals come in it would have to be extremely lopsidedly pro-trump. I think there's some reason here to think that this provisional vote might be more republican than you would normally get with provisional ballots and we could get into the nitty gritty of why but it needs to take extra with biden running up the score here with the mail ballots. Right with the absentee ballots. It's going to put trump in a position where when they get to the provisional ballots he has to win them in lopsided landslide. Fashion overwhelming landslide. Fashion potentially some democratic areas where democrats are probably accounting for a significant chunk of the provisional valid ballot vote. So it's one of those things where you can see an advantage here for biden. You can kind of see okay. There's a complicated set of outstanding ballots. Here the provisionals. But let's be clear here. I think it would deal with take something pretty extraordinary in those provisionals. For trump to erode with biden's building. Here yeah very clear. Because when you're playing with fewer votes left the margin you would need out of that remaining bachelor tranches you put. It becomes higher steve. I know we. We rustled you up because this was big news. I want you to stay with me. I'm gonna bring in cornell belcher obviously upholster who's worked with the obama biden coalition before a cornell. I wanna get your reaction with seve's showing some and then steve will give us further analysis here. We have him up on the screen. Obviously at the big board sixteen thousand points sixteen point seven thousand largest margin date in a must win state for trump and a state that would put biden over the top. But he doesn't have to win at cornell. See if i were an environmental war room to cool war room and looking at at at that map in where the rest of the is still outstanding. I'm i'm i feel fairly confident that that that i'm that my lease not going to be overtaken now. The the x factor. It's visual ballot and historically provisional ballots has been something that outlet jiaxi a lot of minorities cast in. Especially if you look back georgia where these. A previous election cycle were allowed. Minorities casts casto's because something was going wrong at at the at the election plays couldn't find their name or something like that but this time around we don't know there may be more republicans doing it but again if i look at that big board and see where this is coming from. I think it's it's it's it's it's a it's a stretch to say that he's that trump can make this up but we gotta stay cautious and on that point one more cornell. Now we'd say it's a stretch that's forward looking. Let's look at history and precedent cornell. Have you seen a time in the modern era in the last say i'll call it fifty years. Where the kind of counties that is tracking that are turning in ballots of whatever nature provisional or not Would come back. Sixty forty seventy thirty republic. No but but we are at a different time in history. There was clearly a republican a donald trump surge on election day and so we got to be cautious and see what had that surge even impacted and change things Even in the provisional ballots. We don't know yet. Fair steve walkers through just there. Before i let you go to our special coverage and joy reed and everything coming up so the final question to you in this hour. Steve is for folks tuning in. Why is joe biden's lead going up. And and why is it still too close to call right so i mean it just continues to go up because we continue to get the reports of the male votes. The absentee votes. They're telling them what they continue to tally. Them up in philadelphia in allegany county. Where pittsburgh is as you just saw here in northampton county. We just got released. The votes that biden just got a minute ago to put him up sixteen thousand seven hundred eighty four. He was winning seventy three percent there of the mail in vote as entirely consistent with what we've seen pretty much everywhere biden doing extremely well every time they go and they open up mail in ballots and we still have a considerable number of mail in ballots. Yet to be reported out here. So that biden lead of sixteen seventy sixteen seven eighty four just when you get the remaining mail in ballots. It's pretty clear biden's winning them. At an overwhelming rate he is going to pad that statewide lead. And then as i say. There's that question of the provisional ballots and how to think about those it becomes this very complicated kind weeds e question but there. Are we think about one. Hundred thousand of those provisional ballots out there. You can make an argument for why there'd be a pretty solid democratic contingent to that you can make an argument for why it might be more republican than usual but i think if biden is building the kind of lead. It looks like he is building with the mail ballots with the absentee ballots than that provisional ballot would not be somewhere in between good for democrats and republicans that wouldn't be good enough for trump because trump would be fighting to erode a pretty big lead. At that point. It would need to be overwhelmingly for trump the provisional ballots. You make it very clear steve. I know you're always focused on the big board and the work. I know you're not focused on the personal. But i hope you'll permit me to say i don't think on the only american right now. That's glad that you were able to nap. Because you're going to be busy with these new numbers tonight. Thank you are although. I wish i had nap. Because i'm playing catch here. Well we're happy you're catch up. Looks right on the ball steve. Kornacki is going to be busy. I'm releasing him because you're going to see him. I think the top of the next hour cornell belcher with paolo row most want to return to you paula. Because we cut away as we promised viewers. We'll do anytime. There's new numbers you were letting us inside the mindset of the biden. Who used to work for. I want to read a statement that was punchy from the campaign here as there have been all this talk about what donald trump thinks and will even concede which is not legally relevant. The campaign says. We've said this. Before in july the american people will decide this election and the us government is perfectly capable of escorting trust. Passers out of the white house. I mean yes people think by then maybe playing nice right now. At the end of the day he playing the game as well right in something that he's been saying constantly the people will decide or so much that trump can do at the end of the day. The system will work in his favor and as we see these numbers knowing that she may win in in in a matter of hours. I think that he knows what he's walking into. An extremely divided country right. That is that is the challenge that he's up against. He's up against uniting assuming divided country in delivering on big promises to progressives and black and brown boats. And not. A lot of people can do that and i think that the reason why many people saw joe biden as the winner potentially is because he can do that apollo most cornell belts her with us for the hour. I want to thank both of you. Want to give viewers an update here on both of you want to give us a little bit the update when we came on the air tonight. We told you there are six states undecided. No calls at this hour. Those six states remain undecided. What's changed is a building lead for joe biden in pennsylvania. We just walked through that. With steve kornacki about those remaining and provisional ballots but a lead that has now grown to its highest of the week. Sixteen point seven thousand vote margin for joe biden in that crucial state of must win for trump key for biden but he has other paths. That's the update. i m signing off. Melber with the beat here. I wanna thank you as always for joining us. On this special time in american this elections coverage i would encourage you not to go anywhere though because jewelry continues our special election coverage next. Hi it's msnbc's vel she. You know these days. There's just so much news to wrap your head around. It's hard to know what's most important. That's why we're updating msnbc dot com with a special feature on our homepage called msnbc daily. It's a place where you'll find the same type of expert analysis. You're used to getting on tv. But now with a new written perspective section all neatly organized in one place so you can go beyond the headlines and get a deeper understanding of the stories that matter. Most you'll find perspectives written by people uniquely qualified to write them people. You're familiar with from our network. Barbara mcquade writing about legal matters. Dr kavita patel with on public health liz plank giving her take on women's rights and gender issues and i'm excited to share that i'll be writing some pieces of my own so visit. Msnbc dot com today and look for our new feature msnbc daily.

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