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The Paradox of Dick Cheney (with Adam McKay)
The interview was taped on 2/5/19. Adam McKay is an Oscar award-winning director and screenwriter. He was a writer for Saturday Night Live and one of the earliest members of Upright Citizens Brigade, a renown improvisational and sketch comedy group. McKay’s films include The Big Short, Anchorman I and II, and Stepbrothers. His most recent film is Vice, a biopic of Dick Cheney. Preet and McKay discuss: McKay’s extensive research into Dick and Liz Cheney’s psychology and presentation The lasting effect of the Bush presidency on American politics and policyHow Cheney carved out an unprecedented role for the Vice President, using his subordinate status to command control McKay’s background in comedy, and how it influences his craft From the Q&A portion of the episode: Jeff Bezos’ post in Medium, “No thank you, Mr. Pecker.”The non-prosecution agreement between American Media, Inc. (AMI) and SDNY.An article in The Daily Beast reporting that Michael Sanchez, the brother of Bezos’ mistress, is the leaker.A report from NBC News on Senator Burr’s comments concerning the possibility of collusion between Trump campaign and Russia, plus Senator Warner’s dispute.An article in NYT on El Chapo’s trial and verdict. Presiding Judge Cogan’s response to the El Chapo jury verdict. From the interview:McKay’s movies: Vice (2018), Anchorman (2004), Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (2006), Bad Blood (upcoming)Michael Bay’s movie, Pearl Harbor (2001)Alfonso Cuarón’s, Roma (2018) Fox’s Tucker Carlson 2018 segment on “Sex-Crazed” Pandas Jane Mayer’s book, The Dark Side: The Insider Story of How the War on Terror Turned into a War on American IdealsBarton Gellman’s book, Angler: The Cheney Vice PresidentMichael Isikoff and David Corn’s book, Hubris: The Insider Story of Spin, Scandal, and the Selling of the Iraq WarRon Suskind’s three books on the Bush yearsGarrett Epps' analysis in the Atlantic on the Unitary Executive Theory originChristian Bale’s 2019 Golden Globes speech where he thanked Satan An article in NBC News on Cheney embracing his Darth Vader nicknameAn article in The Atlantic on the relationship between Presidents and think tanksStay Tuned with Preet interviews: Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and journalist John CarreyrouFRD’s 1936 speech announcing the Second New Deal, where he famously said, “I welcome their hatred.” Read his full remarks here. George W. Bush dancing on Ellen (watch the opening) Documentary, The Act of Killing (2012)An article in The Atlantic recounting George H.W. Bush’s and Ford’s respective criticisms of Cheney and Rumsfeld An article in The Hill reporting that Cheney still has not apologized to the man he shot (though the survivor has apologized to Cheney)An article in NYT recounting Cheney’s proposal to bomb Syria in 2007 An article in Time on President Bush’s decision to not pardon Scooter Libby Shakespeare’s King LearA retrospective on the history of the Upright Citizens Brigade An article in NYT on Director Mike Leigh’s unconventional method of screenwritingAn article in NYT on the different phrasing used by political parties, i.e. “estate tax” vs. “death tax” Do you have a question for Preet? Tweet it to @PreetBharara with the hashtag #askpreet, email firstname.lastname@example.org, or call 699-247-7338 and leave a voicemail.
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Seventeen. Come welcome to put quiz seven hundred and twenty seven I have a couple of thank yous before we start first of thanks to pay pelton. Karen? And also thanks to Martin who came up with the idea foot round two. Round one. It's an annual anthem's music this week. So there are full pieces of music, listen to food which I would like artist and title and number five is the year in which they were all first released a singles. Chains western one. Shouldn't you trouble from the Burs kids had your wide on what they open? Shred. Trash. Because. Understand. No again. June. You wouldn't have apple apathy? Said there's an. Question. Three. Bijan for the phone is accurate bided. And. One is the the crash. Have bins? Question five thi-this the year in which all of those songs were first released as singles it was the same year as the Winter Olympics being held in Vancouver. Round to run to is on George H W Bush. Question says, what was the first name of George H d Bush's wife? Question seven who succeeded Bush as president of the United States in nineteen Ninety-two? Question. Eight Bush died at the age of ninety four years five months and eighteen days making him the longest lift president in United States history. Who is second. Question nine what to Bush's initials h w stunt for? Question ten in which state was George H W Bush born? Round three three is on movies. You're about five shield clips from movie trailers Antony each case unlucky to tell me the name of the film. Question eleven. Tops of Gotham. The perfect anime comes to life. I am. The only one who can save this city. Creature of the night question twelve. Slave. Barbarian? Warriors. A man of great strength. Freshly stakes of they are. Two thirteen. Why are you doing city? We'll find it. The biggest thing. These are the men. Nothing. Very unusual about them suburban guys like you or your neighbor. Nothing. Very unusual about women to obey decided to spend one weekend, canoeing down the Huda. Wasi river. Western fourteen. Good cold evening, gentlemen. Dr king Schultz kinda doctor. And just amongst your inventory of led to believe, it's a specimen. I'm keen to acquire. What's your name Django? Exactly the women looking for no sale. Very well. No. Question. Fifteen K. Jan what's come double homicide? One male one female killers male white forty seven from until. You wonder arrests with future murder of Sarah marks Madison. Future can be seen. Oh, we have to run on her the images, they produce. We see what base. It hasn't been murdering six years. There's nothing wrong with the system. It is perfect. I agree can be stopped. Rome four and the fun round. This week is the natural world. Question sixteen the Bob still flying FOX and Pippa Stroh all kind of animal. Question seventeen which of the following big cats does not normally have spots, Jack Uwe leopard Tiga. Question eighteen what nine is giving to plants that once mature and dry detach from their roots? And are carried away in the winds. Allowing them to spread the seats. Question nineteen which type of bio occurs when tree growth is hinted by low temperatures and short growing seasons. Leafing vegetation composed of two of shrubs. She's grasses mosses antigens. It's xts in three times Arctic alpine and Antarctic. Question twenty which country has the largest area of rainforest at one point eight million square miles. Three minutes after nut. Bush city limits by T fences. Mad? One was Bruna mouse with CRA Nate. To was baby by Justin Bieber. Number three was need. You now by lady antebellum is. The full. My name. Riyan? The two thousand. Round two. Let's see was George H W Bush and the answer to number six. Bush's wife was cooled Barbara. Seven Bush was succeeded by Bill Clinton. Eight the second longest lived president in United States history is Jimmy Carter. Benign the H W stands for Herbert Walker. And number ten Bush was born in Massachusetts. Round three. Three was movies and the answer to number eleven was man. Returns of the mate. The twelve was Conan the Burien. Nothing. Very unused. Thirteen was still difference. Canoeing river, number fourteen was Django unchained. And number fifteen was minority report. Round four the fund round was the natural world and dance. Sixteen stuff flying, folks. And pip stroll our old bats. Seventeen the big cats that doesn't really have spokes as the tiger. Eighteen those plants that detached from their roots and uploading the way are cooled tumble. Weed. Nineteen. That's why on that occurs. When treat with hinted by temperatures is tundra. And some twenty country with the largest area of rainforest is Brazil. Got sit put quiz seventy seven. Thank you very much listening before I go, I would like to thank some of the listeners who donate every month. Patriot dot com slash put quiz. So thanks to Alphand us. Rebecca, Autry, Brandon, Chris Mackey Katcha and Mike. Okay. I'll be back with another twenty questions next week by now.
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The Perot Effect
Hey, there wasn't hers. Gaylon droop. Here. Earlier this week Nate Perry and I discussed Howard Schultz's possible independent run for president. We talked a bit about past third party candidacies. And I mentioned that we did an audio documentary on Ross Perot and his affect on the nineteen Ninety-two election. So we thought we'd reupped the episode in case you're looking for some weekend listening. This originally aired in October of two thousand sixteen so a couple of the references may sound dated. But in any case, it's still helpful understanding the role that third party candidates play in a two party system. All right here does loss borough absolutely cost, George H W Bush reelection in ninety two the idea that Perot cost Bush reelection in nineteen Ninety-two if supported by everything but evidence. What the Clinton people say they are only saying that because they want to see President Clinton won outright. But he he did not have majority mandate that there are people that are going to go to grave leaving earth or six years old all at Aachen do is say with Dallas. That's James Carville owes chief strategist for the nineteen Ninety-two Bill Clinton presidential campaign, and Mary Madeline. I'm a steward. Herbert walker? Bush's deputy campaign manager in nineteen ninety two they're married and actually dated while working on opposite sides of the nineteen ninety two presidential election him for Clinton her Forbush. It's an election that still divides people today not so much because of Clinton or Bush, but because of the other guy Ross Perot? Now before I start I have to use Mobudu stick again. And this is a simulated alligator crawl on blue steak. This is the third installment in fivethirtyeight series of audio documentaries made in collaboration with ESPN films. Re examining what we know about past campaigns. The time has come to talk about Ross Perot. My name is Jody African and I'm Gaylon droop. Some people like Mary Madeline insists the third party candidate a former Republican spoiled the election for incumbent president, George H W Bush others argue the Bill Clinton wanted on his own merits, the Perot who got nineteen percent of the popular vote took votes evenly from both sides. We talked to people involved in all three campaigns pollsters, and researchers and dug through the archives to get a picture of what the campaign looked like. And why it turned out the way it did? Galen took the lead reporting the story Gaylon take it away. Nineteen Ninety-two should stay. If you're Whitney Houston's bodyguard album became the best selling soundtrack of all time, the country's largest mall mall of America opened in Bloomington. Minnesota. The American economy was also in the pits. Welcome to the world class of ninety two and good luck. Finding a job waiting for them just off campus. The toughest job market in two decades. I think it was a time where people really scared kid at jobs. They were scared of the changes that we're going to. Fred Malik was the campaign manager for the George Bush nineteen Ninety-two reelection run through scenes establish institutions going bankrupt. And I think they were concerned for their future. While the candidates for the democratic nomination were preparing to face off in Iowa and New Hampshire and early ninety two President Bush was fielding questions like this them. Now, you economic Besser all. Besser all. Three years ago. Do many people would say today. No, if you said economically because I think there is a lack of confidence out there across this country abroad. However Bush had scored what was seen as a big and easy victory. Jubilation city after seven months of a rocky occupation forces have cut off all the state for a rocky truce Saddam Hussein comes up with still another offer. Been the president who of course, who had taken the United States into Kuwait take Iraqis out, it would quite a heroic expedition and successful tradition, and as we moved into the screen of ninety one he was right in very high eighty percent plus approval rating. Indicate this war finally is coming rapidly to a close Bush's approval rating peaked at eighty nine percent after the Gulf war in nineteen Ninety-one. No surprise his team decided to make it the focus of his campaign. If I'd listen to the leader of the United States Senate, George Mitchell Sadam Hussein had being Saudi Arabia, and you'd be paying twenty bucks a gallon for gasoline. Try that one on. He was very cuffing for reelection getting sick and tired. I every single night here in one of these carping little Liberal, Democrats jumping all over my, you know, you know, what working strategy was emphasize the success of the presidency. We had hit a recession. But you always do hit that the cycle. We're coming out of it just fine on the other side of the race. Was this man? We want to put the forces of the status quo and short-term greed on notice the party's over. We're in for a change we want our country back. Team so natural. He was so charismatic also play to our worst vulnerability, which was generational not long ago. George Bush said he'd do whatever it takes the elected and Bill Clinton. He may meet his math that said. Allegations of marital infidelity, finally surfaced in a supermarket tabloid since then for better or for worse, governor Clinton's private life is become the overriding issue in the democratic presidential campaign. We look consistent meshes counry. If the economy stupid was a smart thing, but base that his personal character evidence by series of women that the American people probably are not going to go that wreck Shen. So on one hand, we have a recession riddled, but once very popular wartime president and on the other young charismatic governor now invalid in a scandal. An in walks this guy, I grew up in Texas, five blocks in the Arkansas border Ross Perot before I start I have to use voodoo stick again, he was slim and about five five with short cropped hair at the time. He was sixty two and he came from Texarkana the place where Texas Arkansas and Louisiana all meet, and he'd address the country holding a black pointer he called his stick. And this is a simulated alligator crawl on Lou steak imagining my first trip Arkansas where one of the things you can go see this before Disneyland. Go see the alligator his entry was absolutely preposterous. Caricature of a crazy person actually, a billionaire. Who made his money in tech some data processing system that suffice it to say got him super-rich and earned him a name and Texas. Guys in Texas knew each other and John comedy. He would call me every now and then talked to quite a character in trying to figure Perot out James. You got to stay on Ross. Just stone ask crazy, you can't figure him out Ross Perot had an everyman touch for someone who is a multi billionaire, and he was one of the richest Americans at the time his business pro systems was so incredibly successful. That's Frank blunts. The guy from the TV news focus groups at the time. He ran internal polling for the Perot campaign. But that wasn't his title. I was the director of research, and the reason why is that he told reporters that he didn't believe in polling her focus groups research was okay? But polling wasn't. And so I was director research Perot was down homespun kind of Aww, shucks guy. You just happen to own a cigarette boat that goes one hundred eighty miles an. Our and the helicopter that goes one hundred eighty miles an hour, so before he'd come into the campaign headquarters on occasion, he and his son would raise the helicopter and the boat. I mean who does that except Prospero Ross Perot wandered into the race seemingly by accident. During an interview on Larry King in late February of ninety two is there any scenario in which you would run for president who number one had a want it. You know, if you're serious you the people are that series. You register me in fifty states. And if you're not willing to organize and do that then all toll. Are you into the ordinary folks if you're dead serious? Sweat, basically, he said, no. But maybe and show me that you really mean, it the notion that you could just get a bunch of strangers to the process to get you on the ballot sinned unfathomable to us lo and behold just a month later now he says he'll spend fifty to one hundred million dollars of his own money to run for president. If an ordinary American signed petitions to put his name on the ballot in all fifty states Perot's name already is on the ballot in Tennessee and this weekend voters in Texas signed petitions to get him on the ballot there, we thought his funding my own campaign on behold into nobody. I remember it's guy we thought that would be very discordant scored two Americans one of the hold it running around making fun of it. It turned out that people trusted him more precisely because of his own personal wealth. He had that thing. Every politician wants the outsider appeal he would talk politicians didn't talk before and Blaine, Texas talk. It's time to take out trash and clean up. Barnard? It's going to be to, you know, a lot of his appeal when you do focus growth, he was not a typical politician really shake things up in Washington. If you want your car fixed, you'll get a first glance mechanic, and you don't get somebody selling aluminum siding. That's that's Washington right now. And that's the reason none of these problems address. I just don't know what to do. Ross Perot who never held elected office could credibly critique the political class during a time when according to ABC an overwhelming majority. Seventy nine percent say they are dissatisfied or just playing angry about the way the federal government works by April two months after his Larry King appearance. He was pulling in third four points behind Bill Clinton the Democratic Front runner. Our ABC news shows that as of now or road going to twenty four percent of the vote in three way race with Bush and Clinton, and tens of thousands of turned out in meetings like this one in Charlottesville Virginia. We're going to send a message to Washington aren't we that we're fed up? Where matters hell we've had enough right? He didn't just have the outsider appeal either. He also had an economic message. That resonated the messages the deficit and the debt are destroying America that your kids are getting screwed. And he's the guy is going to do something about it. Here's the picture on our country's debt. How? Look at how it's grown over the year that is a staggering load for our country hopes in Washington financed long term problems short-term keep the interest rates down that suicide in business. That's suicide in your personal life that suicide. So we had outsider status an economic message. The only thing missing a media strategy and lucky for his campaign. He loved the television cameras are for people to remember today. Nineteen Ninety-two being the last of the normal media campaigns were were driven by not the twenty four seven cycle. But the network news with the possible exception of Larry King so favorite format for Ross. Perot was to go. Larry King pro was an early darling of cable news election coverage. And he didn't just do TV interviews either thirty minute ATs, thirty minutes infomercials with the most boring charts that looked like television from the nineteen fifties. One of the things he's best remembered for are these ads? Where of course, he used his voodoo stick tonight Ross Perot plain talk about jobs debt, and the Washington he would buy thirty minute blocks of network airtime sit down with the stock of charts and talk his first ad attracted sixteen and a half million viewers. We've talked a lot about the importance of having the American people fully informed. So that they can make intelligent decisions is this country in effect. This is our first townhall connected on TV because he was usually demand. Could stay on message. He had a message, and you could stay on message and Ross Perot didn't just put out one of these infomercials he had a whole collection, including Ross Perot on balancing the budget and reforming government Ross Perot on how to build a business and create jobs an hour long biography on Ross Perot part one the early use part to business success and leadership, and of course, chicken feathers, deep voodoo and the American dream. And these infomercials weren't just an ego trip. They were part of a plan could not jam Ross Perot into traditional thirty second spot you needed something bigger, again, Franklin's Perot's, internal pollster outside the story. Tell it Frank. We were finally allowed to go to research early June. So I've been on since April maybe the end of March beginning of April and finally in early June. They said go out to TAOs sessions. See how people react and let me know what you find basically figure out how to sell Ross Perot to Americans. We had at the time VHS tapes, and there are three different types. One is Ross Perot speaking to an audience when he uses all those really weird phrases like the ants in the attic and the check under the hood knowledge things that used to say the second taper endorsements of him. And the third tape was biography of him. The normal way that we would show it his that we begin with the biography, then we would have the endorsements and then we show him speaking. But lunch was traveling on the road and after one stop he forgot to rewind VHS tapes. So when the next city the order was mixed up, and we got to Colorado, we showed him speaking. I then we did the endorsements and then we did this bio. And if you don't know his background, but you hear him speak. You think he's a little off weird people in that focus group didn't respond to the same way as previous groups. So in the next session. He switched tapes back to the original order, the biography, then pro himself, and then the endorsements and you could not tear people away. Once they supported rope. You could not move them. That presentation in that order, no matter what negative information I gave them afterward. They were unmovable tell people first and foremost that Perot was down-home self made businessman, and they'll be on board with the rust, and it just blew me away from that point on. I knew how he needed to be introduced to the American people which was the beginning of them deciding that they're going to do communications that aren't thirty seconds long. Going to be a minute CI minutes even half an hour. Good morning Ross Perot, Texas billionaire undeclared candidate for president our special guest here to take your calls today. Thursday, June the eleventh nineteen ninety two. Ross Perot was pulling ahead of Bush and Clinton with thirty nine percent of the vote. And good morning everyone. Welcome to today on what figures to be a very interesting morning. We are joined as noted by Ross Perot, who if you believe most polls will be very formidable candidate for president all of a sudden the next thing, you know, he's running. I we're running third in the span of four months Perot had gone from using about running for president on Larry King to leading the two major party candidates. But as he climbed in the polls the same media attention that had hyped his campaign turned increasingly critical. Here's Peter L. Kind of the Dallas observer talking to ABC in one thousand nine hundred two now it's more important than ever obviously to look into his past to look into what he's done because while he says what you see is what you get. There's a lot in this history that offers contradictory signals in late June. The Washington Post reported that Perot had hired a private investigator in the eighties to try to uncover damaging information about the family. Of George Bush who was then vice president Ronald Reagan. Put it this way. If. He was having my children investigated that is the end the pale leave my kids alone. I'd say they're good, honest voice. The daughter good honest girl trae continue to attract criticism into July at an N W C P event, he referred to the black audience as quote, you people. This added to previous missteps like when he told Barbara Walters on twenty twenty that he wouldn't appoint gazed his cabinet in order to avoid controversy as the pressure mounted conflict arose within his campaign in the office. There was a little bit of intrigue. But it was more about the challenge of managing Ross Perot. He ignored his staff's advice and chose to deliver his own speeches over the ones. Written by consultants staffers began to leak to the press, the only four people he talked to Perot would have these meetings with those four people and within twenty four hours, it would appear in the Wall Street Journal. And he would be apoplectic. They could not stop leaking. According to polls fouth night Ross Perot undeclared candidacy seems to be losing some of its steam recently today's Paul lease with thirty five percent row has slipped five points behind Clinton. A close third. This poll was the first put Perot in the lead that was just one month ago day after day Perot continued to slide further down in the polls. So at that time, we as everyone else did somewhat of a political version of a Roman candle shot up framed and. Claimed and they had was but that didn't quite happen. Either. Eighty news election night command center in New York. This is the ninety two vote once again, David Brinkley and Peter Jennings going to make another projection now, we project the Bill Clinton is going to be the next president of the United States. We projected Ohio has gone for governor Clinton. Let's take a look at the big board on election night. I remember not being that surprised by the results that can actually a little closer than I expected. Bill Kristol chief of staff to vice president Dan Quayle about a five point race. But being surprised by rose members Perot was running as I recall around ten twelve percent in the polls about a week before election day ends up with nineteen percent. Nineteen percent of the vote almost one in five Americans voted for him. Dotting february. You did something that everybody said couldn't be done. Millions of you came together to take your country back. It was the best performance by a third party candidate since nineteen twelve back when teddy Roosevelt ran with the Progressive Party after having already served two terms in office. A laser like message to listen to the people. We arrive where we began unequivocally to my grave Ross Perot cost George H W Bush's reelection in nineteen ninety two a former Republican with a conservative economic message winds almost twenty percent of the vote leaving neither major party candidate with a majority. President Clinton f forty three percent of the vote was hard to see him getting past forty three percent. Maybe forty four percent. But that remaining vote from forty three to fifty percent. Plus one was not going to Bill Clinton, and the theory of Ross Perot spoiling the election for George H W Bush is born. Here's the plan. We're going to check out this theory from a few perspectives. Let's start with the man who did Perot's internal polling for me. Do a survey late in the campaign to test number of different items. One of the questions was if voting for Perot were not an option who he wrote for and it was fifty two Bill Clinton forty-eight, George Bush. The campaign's internal numbers showed that it was an even split and external numbers backed that up exit polls as people who would your second choice have been if Perot running Nate silver editor in chief of fivethirtyeight, and it split about evenly between Bush and Clinton official exit. Polls asked that question on election day itself the day after the election, the New York Times cited those polls writing quote, the impact of Mr. pro supporters on the campaigns outcome appears to have been minimal five away. If Bush had one sixty. Scent of the Perot vote. You can do the math you somewhat of lost the electoral college by pretty good margin. So both internal and external polls pretty much agreed. But there's also further evidence to suggest Perot was not a spoiler. Natural experiment because Perot out of the campaign for big chunk of the race. Sorry. We never got to that part. Ross Perot actually dropped out of the race in the middle of July after his numbers in the polls began to slip throughout this effort. We have said repeatedly then armed Jack is to improve our country. Not disrupt the political process, basically, he said if he were to run probably none of the three candidates would get two hundred seventy electoral votes. Meaning the election would be decided in the house of representatives and pro said that would be bad for the country. So therefore, I will not. For the record. There's little to suggest he would have forced the election to the house even with twenty percent of the popular vote. He didn't get a single electoral vote, but then on October. I just a month and three days before the election. The sixty two year old billionaire Rafer cost the American political landscape like a Texas tornado while summer before dropping out, but he kept paying for Perot organization and today cashed it volunteers and all fifty states have asked me to Ron candidate, France, the United States. Jim Stockdale vice presidential candidate and honored to accept their request. Ross Perot was election. Ninety two's tuber surprise he got back in the race after being on the sidelines for two and a half months. The whole episode boosted the narrative, the pro was just stove. Af crazy you can't figure him out. But it also gives us a two and a half month window into what the race would've looked like without Ross Perot in it. And what happened when he dropped out during that period Clinton's was actually larger over Bush in the polls, not smaller? He was leaving my fifteen twenty points at one point Bush had been pulling ahead of Clinton before Perot dropped out after he exited Clinton shot up to the mid fifties while Bush remained in the mid thirties and the pulse remained there until pro back in the race in October. Get it Perot cost Bush reelection in nineteen ninety two is supported by everything but evidence vote he took from them. He took one from us. That's the argument for Perot, not spoiling the election for Bush, and it has been studied by political scientists, and they've arrived at the same conclusion Perot support split equally both ways, but I think that understates the importance of Perot damaging Bush in the dynamics of the campaign again Bill Kristol who was working for vice president Dan Quayle, bro, traditional Republican someone who was very socio it with Reagan Bush administration's of businessmen that at all the things that could note the voters out there legitimate, Republican conservative Perot takes on Bush. I think it affected the dynamic of the campaign weakened Bush much more than than Clinton crystal makes a point that's hard to quantify sure on election day itself Perot, support, ma'am, split fifty fifty but throughout the campaign Perot hurt Bush more than he hurt Clinton. Bush's deputy campaign manager, Mary Madeline agrees Ross Perot's. Presence gave Clinton running room that he wouldn't otherwise have in the tax that Ross Perot made on Bush hurt Bush more than Clinton could have because Rossborough credibility on those issues and Bill Clinton didn't every event that we found ourselves in particularly the debates with him caused President Bush to underperform Perot didn't hold back in the debates here he is in the first one also the first presidential debate to include three candidates. I don't like to see the country's principal violated. I don't like to see the people in a deteriorating economy deteriorating country because our government has lost touch with the people when you go to bed tonight. Look at your children. Thank dreams and ask yourself. Isn't it time to stop talking about it? Is it time to do it? Another example of crow hurting Bush is the way Perot dropped out of the race. Even Frank Luntz agrees Perot, if he wanted to defeat George Bush could not have dropped out at a better moment in when he did pro- backed out of the race literally hours before Bill Clinton took the stage at the democratic convention to accept the nomination. Fellow delegates and my fellow Americans. He pulls out all the sudden all the pro people like what do I do now and Bill Clinton takes the stage to livers, a very, remarkable, convention speech and Perot numbers collapse. And all these people moved to Bill Clinton, I still believe and a place called. Oh, God bless you. And God bless. And. You go from Bush to Clinton he was impossible. The differences were too great not just an issues, but in the persona of the people, which you could go from Bush to Perot and Perot to Clinton so Perot became a stopping point. And at the moment that Perot pulls out the Bush, people are insulting him the very moment. All these Perot voters twenty two twenty three percent are deciding what to do the Republicans the official Republicans are trashing and all these Perot people said, you know, what? Not sure about Bill Clinton. But I hate these Republicans, and they all moved over to Clinton. And you watch this surge. It was one of the biggest convention bounces in modern times. To be fair. Pro didn't only disadvantage Bush. He also attacked Clinton's record as governor of Arkansas and from a strategic point of view voters looking for a change in rough economic times had both Perot and Clinton to choose from instead of just Clinton, but let's try to tease this out. One more way. Let's put pro aside for without him in the race were there reasons to expect a Clinton victory for one thing. President Bush was extremely unpopular. He had an approval rating in thirties, then you had a recession. It wasn't the most severe recession, but a recession usually hurts the incumbent party you'd have the same party in charge for for many years. There was also this read my lips. George Herbert Walker. Bush said in the nineteen eighty eight convention read, my lips, no new taxes, and that's his blunt and direct and as tough as you can be. And then he goes and breaks it two years after read my lips Bush signed a budget that raised taxes. Some Republicans were upset enough to back. Challenger, Pat Buchanan in the primaries. Bush was struggling. Started that campaign with a ninety one ninety one percent approval rating, and there were those that thought that ninety one percent approval rating, which was the legacy of the first Gulf war was somehow static and permanent. And it was quite the opposite. It was fleeting was federal irrelevant Bush faced campaign hurdles that would have been there with or without Perot. And on top of that Clinton did have some things going for him Clinton, obviously is one of long with Reagan. And maybe Obama is kind of one of the most skilled politicians of the past forty years. He's a guy who number one is really persuasive. He got one of the biggest convention bounces. We call it of all time when he himself without go or to the public number two Clinton was running as a new, quote, unquote, democrat he's running on welfare reform. He's running on free enterprise. A southerner understands how to relate to people in different parts of the country, not just the northeast in the same year. George Bush made headlines for being unfamiliar with a modern grocery store scanner Bill Clinton, and Al Gore were well more than a running mate, he found a jogging partner the youth team without today looking for votes wherever they could find them jogging around Little Rock talking to folks in minivans with TV crews intoe. Play up with act that this is the youngest ticket ever to run for national office remembers the Konami stupid. But what there are other message was change not more change. It's time for a change James Carville famously said, and I'll never forgive him for it. When I look at George Hw Bush of last year's calendar after twelve years of the same party amid a recession a young challenger selling a new kind of politics entered the scene anyone. It's not shocking. Here's President Bush's campaign manager, Fred Malik. I wanted to believe that we would have won without Ross Perot. It would have been convenient to believe that and blame it all. And that after all that is what Bush's deputy campaign manager, Mary Madeline believes unequivocally to my grave, but after the election Malik checked it out for himself, everything we could see Ella polling. We did. Which suggests that we lost the election ourselves because we feel to address the economic concerns of the American people that even without parole in race. We probably would have lost it. That's what I believe. So pro probably didn't affect the outcome of the ninety two race in the way that some people claim, but there's more to be learned from that election. And they what does Ross Perot's experience prove in this sense. It's guy who read and then dropped out and got back in the race for weeks out with no wheel campaign structure at all got himself into the debates and searched at the end ninety percent. That's a lot of oats guy who pulled out and said, I don't want to run anymore and went away, and then changed his mind. One out of five Americans voted for him. That's remarkable by most measures of political wisdom Ross Perot had a lot of faults. But he also tapped into something powerful. Golly. You're taking your country. Can't go one election, stop when election staff one election stuff, they do not they're gonna continue if you really look at what would the attraction to Perot was. You can see the embryo onic state of what the direction to Trump is today. My pledge reads. I'm with you the American people. Your voice. Down is Jesus of dissident chatted displace non college white voters didn't Perot with John the Baptist of that thought it move. Now. It's hard to say anyone is quite like, Donald Trump the difference between Perot and Trump is often every different tangent. Pro did not start attacking gold star. Moms Perot wasn't telling second amendment advocates to take Justice into their own hands. Ross Perot is much more optimistic much more positive in this approach. Donald Trump is always on the attack. But it's also difficult to deny the similarities in my head. They blur. Because there were similarities between them in. This simplicity of the message and how powerful it resonated with so many people. Their political outsiders. Successful businessmen charismatic populists. They tell it like it is and focus on a simple message. This thing or that thing is destroying America the policy. Details are secondary written position paper on every little thing. Anybody wants to know about? Time and I will say right. I'm not the president everything is no matter what you say. It's gestion and their faults could be forgiven. I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose any voters. So it didn't matter if journalists doubted their intentions. Do you want to run for president? But do you want to be president? Or if they dabbled in conspiracy, even with this vicious of his former campaign manager, you cues me at one point in time of being a plant from the White House. I'm afraid the election's going to be Rick. I have to be honest people on their own teams spoke out against them like Ross Perot's former economic adviser Roth withdrawing as he did when he did raises doubts in anybody's mind about his temperament for for being president. No matter how many norms they broke the attraction was there. Crazy people in this country. I don't know what we're going to do. I've got a theme song Brad campaign. Just listen to we're creams. Until the twenty sixteen election. It's been easy to file Ross Perot away as an anomaly or incorrectly as a spoiler. But both of those now seem insufficient. The fact that nineteen million people voted from was a kind of a sign though, I think of the degree disatisfaction with the political class that had produced Bush and Clinton away maybe a bit of a harbinger for the next quarter century when that disatisfaction popped up all kinds of ways and maybe crew over those twenty five years or so and given that maybe it's even worth asking why Ross Perot didn't actually end up doing better than he did. Spite of a strong effort in really strike in court with a broad segment. American people that is very difficult for third party candidate to succeed. And this is a big lesson from Perot's campaign, even though Americans say that they're not partisan. They still have a home. They still start by being a Republican or democrat. And then they move based on the candidates in the environment of that election Perot waged his campaign outside the two party system. He got nineteen million votes, but not a single electoral vote, but Donald Trump has waged his campaign from within. He got thirteen million votes in the Republican primary enough for victory and enough to put him within striking distance of the White House. I am with you. I will fight for you. And I will win for you. The question people ask about Ross Perot is how would the election have been different in ninety two if he didn't run, but the more interesting question is how would the outcome have been different? If he ran as a major party candidate. At this point pods are Donald Trump will come short of winning the election, but like Perot, he'll leave behind lessons to be learned by the next charismatic populist and just as Donald Trump did better than Perot. Maybe the next charismatic populist. We'll do better than Donald Trump.