21 Burst results for "Piper Sandler"
CNBC's Fast Money
"piper sandler" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Back to fast money, big problems for big cities, for NATO realty, Boston properties, JB, G Smith property, seeing massive losses over the last year as a return to office trend, hasn't quite materialized a new report shows remote work is costing Manhattan more than $12 billion a year. Are these post pandemic problems here to stay? Let's bring in Alexander Goldfarb, a REIT analyst at piper Sandler. Alexander, great to have you with us. Mondays and Fridays, there's no traffic here. I can speak personally. It takes me 15 minutes to get to the studio in 15 minutes to get back. Tuesdays, through Thursdays, it's different story. This is a trend that has lasted much longer than we all thought. How is this actually impacting though leasing, et cetera? Well, first of all, thank you, Melissa for having me on. Here are piper Sandler on the REIT side. We've been early to be talking about the theme that you're bringing up, which is, I don't think early on in the pandemic, people really thought that for everyday people work at home, that's a 20 percent hit to midtown GDP. No different if you go to San Francisco, Boston, LA, wherever you are, it's a 20% hit. It's not just the transit systems. It's the bodegas. It's the coffee carts on the corner. It's the restaurants, the bars, it's everything, and it's a real issue. So what's interesting is when you look at office utilization, it's back to around 60% in New York. You know, it's lower. It's like 30, 35% out west, a bit better in Boston, but on the other side, you have the federal government that is still most of the federal employees are working from home in D.C.. So it's a mixed picture all around, ironically, New York is sort of leading, but either way, unfortunately because of onerous COVID lockdown policies that were extended in the big cities, plus quality of life issues, a lot of people discovered that you know what? Working from home coming into the city only a few days a week is a much better way to live and I think a lot of companies realize that it's an easy perk to give to people and especially for the employees that know who are working hard. It's something that they can tolerate. So they try to have that Tuesday to Thursday shift and you're right. Monday and Friday become sort of definitely a lot lighter, certainly Friday for sure has become a lot lighter on the commuting to work side. Is this all reflected in these REITs though? That's specialized that have heavy presence in the big cities. It is in the sense that all the management teams have been very upfront, you know, we just got over a week of earnings from the different companies, whether it was SL green, Boston properties, some of the West Coast names like Hudson Pacific or Douglas summit. Tornado just reported tonight. I haven't had a chance to go through it. But all these companies are talking about on one hand, there's a lot of leasing going on. On the other hand, the office markets are soft. So let's take SL green, for example. They've really built around the Grand Central submarket. So a one Vanderbilt, the other new skyscraper next to Grand Central. It's complete success. One Madison. They already have a significant amount of pre leasing done, including IBM, Franklin templeton, on the flip side, if you're a generic office building or you're an office landlord out west, it's really tough. Right now, would I want to be a landlord and Lower Manhattan or up at let's say 59th in lex? Probably not. Would I be scared if I'm a landlord around Grand Central? I'm not worried at all. So it's really a bifurcated market and what you're seeing is in Boston properties has spoken about this where the top tier properties are leasing and continuing to grow share. The generic and more pedestrian assets, they're losing and unfortunately, there are two ways in life to spend a lot of money or to lose money, I should say. One is to own a boat, really expensive. The other way is office buildings. They require a lot of CAPEX, and that's what these companies are talking about, but that's why the top tier assets are winning the day because they have the amenities, the proximity, and the tenants want. Alexander, thanks so much for your time. We'll have to have you back. Alexander. No problem. Now we weren't censored. Too early. So you just went crazy. What was your trade? Oh, sorry. So when you a couple of years ago, retail space was thought to be going out of business and everyone feared that. Now the new fear is that office space is going to be going out of business. I don't think it's going to be going out of business, but the problem is work from home as Alex pointed out. And that is not going away anytime soon. So you have a real problem with office space. Yeah, so the man who was working from home. A guy Tommy, final trade. Steve was channeling his inner Travis Kelce NOC mounts. Steve.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Higher just above $76 a barrel gold is also hired about 1880 and ounce, Bitcoin. It finds a bit out there. Boy, now trading above $17,000 per token so sub movement over the weekend. Let's get some more color on the pre market equity trading. A little bit more markets correspondent for the credit. What are you looking at? Well, we'll start with a company. I feel like we don't do a lot of coverage of Ally Financial. Okay. That's a former General Motors acquisition from G Mac or whatever. Oh, is it? I think. Well, it also a couple of months ago was the one who really warned about credit cards to be car loans, kind of turning over. And that whole concern nevertheless, they got upgraded to neutral from underweight over at piper Sandler saying their headwinds are now priced into the stock, shares rallying off that call up about 1.7% this morning ALL Y is the ticker there. We also got to look at a favorite Bed Bath & Beyond. We know the carnage that it went through last week, specifically. And remember, it is reporting its earnings on Tuesday as well. B, B, B, Y is the ticker. It's up, Paul. Get this by 18 percent in the pre market. So a lot of pain here from last week that seems to be a little bit of a rebound. Remember, this comes as her really looking at a potential bankruptcy on their hands. I remember with the going concern warning from last week. The other one I want to pick up flag to you is Lululemon. Are you a little? I'm a huge fan of Lululemon, the brand. And the product. I don't necessarily wear it myself. But a fan, a little less. So Lululemon shares the taker down about 10% in the pre market. They actually made forecasts that gross margin for the fourth quarter would decline 90 to a 110 basis points Okay, so this is on just rising costs. But here's why it's like taking such a hit. It's 90 to 110 relative to 20 to 20 that they have forecasted. Before. So a massive massive hit there are, of course, meeting with analysts investors of this week, but as a result, there's a little bit of trading and sympathy there because Lululemon, like I said, down about 10%, Nike shares also under pressure, nk down 1.2% and Under Armour as well as the one you want to keep an eye on you, AA down about 2.2%. So a little bit of contagion when you're looking at the retail space. Yep. Absolutely. Athleisure, Tom. Good morning. Athleisure. Totally on top of that. Well, imagine we say good Monday morning to moving to the inflation report on Thursday, really being front and center, but all of a sudden it's an incredibly active
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Here's some outperformance for you. Once again, the semiconductor names, which have really been on a tear since about mid October, the group overall up about 26%. If you pull up the Philadelphia semiconductor index, it's up almost, just shy of 2% today. A big reason why analog devices, which is up 5%, top of the NASDAQ 100, it's one of the largest makers of semis used in industrial equipment and cars. They put out a bullish forecast for the current quarter. So you're talking about first quarter. Their fourth quarter also beat. So certainly some positive momentum and video also a top performer up about 3.8% Tim. Okay, there's some outperformance. I got some underperformance to show you. Once again, I go to the NASDAQ golden dragon index. Chinese stocks listed here in the U.S. down 2% today. Again, following the COVID story and Scarlett you made the great point yesterday is as far as COVID numbers. It's just what we hear from China. It's what they're reporting. But they did record 27,300 cases for Monday. That's just shy of the previous record of 28,900 reached back in April. We currently have 48 cities in China, subject to some form of district level or widespread movement restrictions. According to Nomura, that affects nearly one 5th of China's economic output. Yeah, well, I want to stick with EM and EM assets for a moment here because we're also seeing EWZ, which is the ETF that tracks Brazilian stocks falling after jayar pulsar's party is now questioning the election results. So we'll be keeping an eye on that, especially as the real sinks to session lows. Yeah, of course, one of the most important economies in the world with a lot of political instability right now. We go back to the U.S. markets here. And we've been talking a lot here about just how wild the volatility has been all year long with an S&P 500 that has had gains or losses of more than 1%, dozens of times this year, but over the last 7 sessions, not much. Here on day 8, it looks like they could break that up about 1% here on the day, but still stuck below 4000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average also up by about a percent. The NASDAQ composite also getting in the mix with similar sized gains on the day. Well, typically, Thanksgiving week is kind of bullish. Piper Sandler has a crunch numbers and found that there's a dip on Monday and then 68% of the time improves around Thursday and data going back to 1950, so it's kind of playing out right now. We have energy stocks as the best performers up by 3% and last I checked all the members in that group are higher. This follows two days of being the market's worst performers. Over the last couple of hours, materials are doing well as tech as well. Consumer discretionary romaine is right in the middle there and of course we're seeing some of the best performers are retailers and some of the worst performers are retailers Best Buy being on the upside, Dollar Tree on the downside. All right, well let's look at some of those retailers right now. We talk about the moves that we're seeing in Best Buy. They did raise their profit forecast. A similar story that we're seeing right now for abercrombie and Fitch and both of those names are getting a very big boost in the shares 19% on abercrombie. 11% here on Best Buy, we should point out, though, comp sales, at least on an annual basis, it's still going to be negative for both of those names. Now, the better sort of, I guess, a picture you're going to find in Burlington Stores. They came out with earnings, and they were phenomenal, actually. They really beat here, and that's sort of reiterates. And I guess they're all reinforces the idea of a trade down by some consumers here into some of the discount space, those shares up by about 21%. However, that's not actually helping out Dollar Tree Dollar Tree shares down about 8%, though we should point out. Dollar Tree has a lot bigger issues that have rather than just the macro course still trying to integrate and best position that Family Dollar brand within the umbrella of that company there. When we talk about leadership in this market, we always look to the apple's Microsoft and videos of the world they are helping to do some of the heavy lifting on this day, but take a look at this next chart here because I was taking a look at what the equal weight S&P 500 was doing right now. And it's outperforming, not only in this day, not only on this week, but in fact, the majority of weeks this year that S&P 500 equal weight index, which, of course, strips out the bias of the large micro cap companies. That's actually outperformed here. I think about 30 times 30 weeks out of the 47 weeks that we've had this year. You compare that to the last couple of years where it only outperform fewer than half of the weeks during the year. Yeah, that's interesting. Outperformance there that you're talking about. And you do wonder whether companies are saying, wait a minute, we're going to start to see the fed stop in terms of its aggressive rate hikes. But I got to say, the fed drum beat continues and today we heard from Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland president Loretta master, she, again, coming out there saying that she and her colleagues, it's all about those economic price pressures and reining them in. She spoke at a virtual event that her bank hosted, check it out. Given the high level of inflation, restoring price ability remains the number one focus of the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moskow. We are just about four hours away from the open of U.S. trading. Let's hit you up to date on the news you need to know what this shower will begin in the nation's capital where much of the focus will be today on former president Trump is returning for the first time since leaving office and the Federal Reserve's two day meetings kick off today. The Central Bank is set to raise rates as it looks to tamp down inflation. Well, U.S. futures are lower this morning Karen as markets get ready for the feds next move. Lisa Erickson, senior vice president with U.S. banks, says she's preaching caution on stocks. We are more defensive right now. Again, while in the near term, we see some of that underlying fundamental strength that we came into the year as preventing the worst case scenarios. Lisa Erickson with U.S. bank says the U.S. will narrowly avoid recession as inflation begins to recede. Well, turning to oil now, Nathan, crude is advancing for a second session signs of a tight marketer offsetting concerns about an economic slowdown and checking prices right now and I'm excrete oil at 1.7%. Up a dollar 63 at $98 30 cents a barrel Brent is up 1.4% at a $106, 63 cents. My corporate earnings are in focus as well Karen shares of Walmart are down almost 9% this morning after the company lowered its forecast for the second quarter. Bloomberg's ronita young joins us live with details good morning Renee. Good morning, Nathan. Analysts say Walmart's warning gives more insight into the health of the U.S. consumer. That's likely to signal more pain ahead for retail stocks as they take on food and gas inflation. Morgan Stanley cut its price target for Walmart and says it challenges the broker's view of the retail giant as a safe haven play. City analysts didn't think Walmart would be hit as hard as others. And say the news is a sign that marginally higher income consumers are feeling the pinch from inflation. But piper Sandler says it's too early to take a more constructive view on Walmart, so analysts, they are waiting on a more broad earnings reset industry wide. Live in New York, I'm ranita young Bloomberg daybreak. All right, we need to thank you over in Europe, UBS reported weaker than expected profit for the second quarter. The global market sell off kept wealthy clients on the sidelines as a Swiss bank saw outflows of $12 billion, and UBS shares are down more than 5 and a half percent. And we get earnings from Microsoft today. Here's Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. Bloomberg intelligence notes that half of Microsoft's total sales come from outside the U.S. that makes the software giant more susceptible to foreign exchange movements and the stronger dollar may have weighed on the company's bottom line. Sales of consumer PCs may have slowed, but BI expects to hear that overall sales increased 14%, Jeff Bellinger, Bloomberg daybreak
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This Some of the notes I was reading BlackRock standard chartered TIAA and piper Sandler that sort of all of the economists and the strategists And I think in the past a lot of the narrative we heard is things are bad but the consumer still so good And finally today I was like oh there isn't a lot of butt and the positives And a lot of that's being left down A lot of this is like the fed is behind the fed needs to move Hard to get a soft landing It's sort of the more bearishness when we think about some of the sentiment and not really highlighting a lot of those positive set or laughs And just think about where we came into this I mean you could have tapped the moon music late last night 10 p.m. when you really looked to the crypto market It's absolutely figuring out that don't work in 3 a.m. I wish merrily asleep other than like others in my family But there was definitely a deterioration there and whether there is that correlation effect where there was that spillover effect of this is ugly there and then what does that mean for tech stocks What does that mean for broader market sentiment overall Yeah and you just wonder how much of this continues right through the mid week fed meeting right Everyone's sort of keyed up now for what's the fed going to say on Wednesday Will we get 75 basis points And then a follow of more 75 basis points to come or are we stuck at 50 What's the language going to be in the presser I think there's just so much uncertainty with respect to Wednesday coming that we might be in for a lot of this in the near term So we could get through that meeting at the very least Right like how much is priced data How much can the fed say at this point to surprise certainly when investors and maybe take markets down another leg So we shall certainly see all right guys that's going to do it for this moment We're going to be back in.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg business app and at Bloomberg quick take This is a Bloomberg business flash We have positivity in equity trading in the apac region and we're seeing a lot of positivity among information technology shares Certainly that was the case here in the U.S. today where the NASDAQ composite jumped 2.8% within information technology the chip stocks were very strong and that's continuing to be the case now in Asia We had the Philadelphia semiconductor index jumping 5% That was after piper Sandler said the chip makers should be bought after recent weakness The information tech group right now in the Tokyo session is higher by about 2% and that's helping to lead the nikkei up to again of something greater than 1.2% in Sydney information tech helping to send the ASX 200 higher by about 9 tenths of 1% also seeing strength in Australia among material and industrial shares and the cost be is better by just about four tenths of 1% We'll get trading in Hong Kong and on the mainland in China at the bottom of the coming hour today here in the U.S. we had a rally in those U.S. listed Chinese shares This was after Chinese state TV reported top officials reaffirming support for Internet companies in the U.S. we had the NASDAQ golden dragon China index up by more than four and a half percent We had a big move up in yields across the US Treasury curve during the New York session Little bit of stability right now with a ten year at two 98 and a two year down ever so slightly in yield terms to a level of 2.68% We'll have another look at markets for you in 15 minutes Denise Pellegrini next with a look at global headlines Denise All right thank you Doug and we're watching all the primary elections today Pennsylvania North Carolina Idaho Kentucky and Oregon Pennsylvania especially closely watched with the state's Republican Senate race.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It It feels like a bear market It looks like a bear market If you measure it it's a bear market on the NASDAQ You take some big names the likes of Apple they're almost there Equity futures this morning down a third of 1% on the S&P on the NASDAQ down by 8 tenths of 1% And that's like 100 down what 27% year to date brutal Something's changing in the bond market though Yields aren't higher bonds aren't lower Trace rates are rallying again Four straight Sessions Yields lower by 8 basis points now to two 83 71 higher the week three 20 backed away half the year two 85 on twos backed away That was the last Wednesday We're down another four or 5 basis points of two 59 21 And it's not just stateside it's Europe too The bond market rallying four straight sessions yields lower came close to one 20 on a ten year bund this week now back down to about 87 basis points in down 11 or 12 basis points on the session alone Want to finish on foreign exchange One zero three 88 the lows on December 20th 2016 Right now one O four 22 We are not far off That currency pair Lisa down 9 tenths of 1% That Euro weakness is biting hard You said it really well earlier basically if they raise rates if the ECB raises rates it's your weakness if they don't do enough it's also you're a weakness It sort of damned if you do damned if you don't there And that's been honestly the common narrative for a while A loose loose right Sometimes that's when narratives start to shift the other way but I'm not sure I want to be the person that tries to call that I won't go there The ECB next monthly so I think they've got one of the hardest decisions going as a Central Bank because the downside risk the growth is right now It's materializing It's not maybe in the future It's happening at the moment The inflation rate is too high What on earth do they do Especially because this is inflation that's all the wrong kind In the U.S. we look at the wage inflation We look at rent inflation It's coming from services People are able to charge more not the same in Europe where it's very much energy very much imports And the fact that Euro has depreciated the degree that it has Did you rather be president legado chairman Powell I think I'd rather be with chairman Powell Yeah because I've got a second term French tail told me that I would Well there you go If he gets confirmed we think that's going to happen today That's a very good answer Let's just cross that price section let's get some single names and moves and say good morning to remain Good morning Hey good morning John Will you talk about bear market We've been in bear market territory on an individual basis and aggregate basis Now roughly for some time now and you take a look at some of the price action that we're seeing in the pre market here That's going to continue I thought it was interesting yesterday you had the NASDAQ composite Not only is it down just about 30% from that all time high at 30% drawdown But if these declines that we're seeing in the pre market now hold through the close it's actually going to exceed the drawdown that we saw back in March of 2020 and a big part of that reason is well all the major members of that index they've been in bear market territory for quite some time One of the outliers was actually Apple Apple shares had been down about 19% from its all time high as of yesterday's close If the 1% decline that we're seeing here in the pre market holds through the day then that would put now apple down about 20% joining the likes of Amazon Tesla Microsoft and a couple other names that I'm forgetting here That's the flip side here with the I guess what you would call sort of the more stable companies the companies with real gap earnings real growth and more importantly are actually real margin ability to grow their margins here The flip side of that of course John are the names that of course didn't have that You have zoom which is down 80 90% here getting into downgrade today over at piper Sandler Those shares moving lower and beyond meat came out with their fiscal first quarter earnings and they weren't good at all The bloom definitely coming off the roads Those shares down more than 20% Disney has been struggling Those shares kind of been up and then they were down overall the numbers weren't bad but some of the guidance that bob chip gave on the conference call not really encouraging here a sign that maybe there'll be a little bit of the slowdown in growth particularly in that streaming business and to concern about a year from now with that parks business is going to look like some concern about a pull forward one of the reasons why you're seeing a big bump here in the most recent quarter that may not hold going forward And then there's the EV space Interesting no doubt by the folks at Wells Fargo downgrading Ford and GM because of the added costs to their EV vehicles They actually had some interesting estimates They said that higher raw material costs are adding about $13,000 to the price of the Chevy Silverado EB that they're making and that for Ford the Mach-E and the lightning vehicle that they're making about 5 to $8000 in added costs adjust from raw material costs alone whether that gets passed on to the consumer whether Ford eats it That's a big question And then rivian of course which is trying to stay the course with its push into the EV space says it's still going to meet its production targets for the year Those shares believe it or not higher by about 4% I remain a point you've made repeatedly on the close If you don't have any earnings there's no way to make up the PE You've got a problem right now haven't you Yeah Big be a big problem right now and you're seeing that reflected in the sell off that we're seeing In a massive way remain looking forward to the close a little bit later coming up later on on Bloomberg TV and a little slice to that on Bloomberg radio two Tesla down 30% year to date lucid down 63 call it 64 rivian Brahma rivian down 80% year to date Just sort of shocking talking about the bubble bursting and Ford actually sold some of those rivian shares recently at a discount which only spooks people more and we're just seeing that play out Joining us now Christian look listen manages director for portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs Christian is this a bubble burst thing Listen I think you definitely are dealing with a significant valuation reset here There's no doubt about it.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Thank you it is 6 37 on Wall Street time to take a look at stock some of the names moving in the pre market Bloomberg radio and TV markets correspondent creating Gupta is with this morning pretty looks like stocks as a whole or moving a bit lower What's got your eye this morning Moving a little bit lower but Nathan remember this is totally normal the day before the iPhone C meeting investors tend to go risk off into those fed meetings at least that's been the trend in the last two years or so And that's just an impact of simply the expectation of the removal of stimulus So we'll see if that continues That makes it underneath the hood there is some action here Kellogg for example the letter or the ticker I say is just the letter K is moving down 1.2% Tyson TCS and excuse me is the other ticker up 1.4% Both stocks cut to underweight from a neutral over at piper Sandler The analyst citing shifting consumer habits caused by inflation pressures and valuations ahead of their historical averages Nevertheless you are seeing a divergence in those two stocks this morning Nathan Kellogg like I said down about 1.2% and Tyson up 1.4% I'm going to stick with this kind of spending theme here and look at an earning story this morning MGM Resorts the ticker is MGM up 3.6% this morning And earnings beat analysts had been expecting the company to report an adjusted loss per share for the period Instead they reported a beat So good news there for MGM Remember we've been talking about the travel space a lot even airlines have come in and said well there are seeing a lot of demand or assumption but also they're able to turn that and turn it into profit turn it into margin and those hotels aren't exempt from that theme Speaking of earnings we talked about Clorox here very quickly CLX unchanged this morning but keep an eye on this because the company lowered its outlook for full year earnings amid stubbornly rising costs So once again we're coming down to the margin story showing up in Clorox earnings Yeah I see that analysts are keeping an eye on a major tech name as well Nvidia the heavy weight down three tenths of 1% NVDA keep an eye on this one as well because like I said it is a heavyweight so it can move the market Morgan Stanley resuming their coverage when the recommendation of equal weight that isn't exactly the vote of confidence that you might be looking for from a major bank They cited concerns about a deceleration in gaming and the company's high valuation and Nathan we should mention when we're talking about valuations for these tech names they're actually back to pre-pandemic levels So that is for the bulls out there that is the case to say well maybe the sell off is overdone But for the bears out there what were the conversations we were having in early 2020 and in 2019 overdone tech stimulus growth slowdown a lot of the same concerns that we're right now So is the sell off enough is going to be the question for a lot of the bears Yeah it has been a huge debate in recent days Bloomberg radio and TV markets correspondent critic Gupta with us this morning and as we take a look at stocks as a whole before the open and before the fed meets in May futures taking a leg lower We got S&P futures down 12 points down futures down down a 104 NASDAQ futures are lower by 42 points Ten year treasury with a bid up to 30 seconds yield 2.97% yield on the two year right now Two.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With Esther George and mister brainerd of the Federal Reserve's also speaking here today because do that Miss Brennan I'm sorry I were Jersey U.S. interest rate strategist for Bloomberg intelligent As you take a look and you hear the various members of our Federal Reserve speak how do you think this fed is going to play out in terms of its raising of interest rates throughout the remainder of the year Yes So even we're joking around in one of our chats with customers right now that even the most dovish of members of the fed are now hawks So clearly the Federal Reserve wants to get inflation under control So they will be hiking and hiking pretty aggressively I think while brainers comments as the vice chair of the fed she has a very important role to play clearly and has a big voice around the table And she mentioned that as early as May we could also get announcement of balance sheet runoff So basically you have a double whammy potentially coming up at the May meeting with a pretty high probability of a 50 basis point interest rate increase along with announcement that they'll start to reduce their balance sheet So do the quantitative tightening So that I think will have great additional market volatility And it's not dissimilar Maybe to what we're seeing today with interest rates up ten year interest rates up almost 13 basis points right now What is quantitative tightening look like How will we see it in the market Yeah so we actually put out an updated note today because we do get the Federal Reserve minutes tomorrow And Jay Powell told us two weeks ago that we were going to get some more detail about how they're going to actually conduct their balance sheet runoff in the minutes that come out tomorrow So we think that ultimately start relatively small but over three months ramp up very quickly to allow runoff at around $90 billion a month Now what's interesting about that is that for the treasury market they could run off at a pace of around $60 billion a month with just technically using T bills and what's maturing out of the treasury portfolio But the problem is going to be how do they get to $30 billion in mortgages because if you look at their mortgage portfolio most of it is not going to be refinanced over the next couple of years But you guys interest rates now are double where a lot of people got their mortgages right So why would anyone refinance So they're not going to have any kind of pay downs that are on any month that are going to be anywhere near $30 billion it looks like And we note that in our piece too So ultimately I think they might say later this year that they're going to start some modest sales maybe of mortgage backed securities And that could obviously have significant pricing impacts in that market as well which just the talk of Q of quantitative tightening has already had a pretty significant impact in the mortgage backed securities market It will be interesting to see if they can actually achieve any reduction any meaningful reduction in the balance sheet Certainly last time they tried it didn't work out well They came off a little bit from the 4 trillion that they'd piled up And didn't about face and went up to 9 Yeah well briefly though Matt you know that's an interesting point because there's so much liquidity in the market now Like we have to remember that realistically the fed probably should have really stopped buying assets This time last year And instead of doing that they continued buying assets for another 9 ten months Longer than they should have So why Remind me remind us why Quite frankly they were scared They thought that maybe both markets and in particular the economy needed a little extra nudge and with interest rates at zero that was their way of continuing to continue their easy money policy But they really didn't need to And that's why the reverse repo facility that's now 1.7 trillion And look just to preview some stuff like we think it could go much higher And in fact in a note that we'll have out tomorrow we'll tell you how high we think it can get But it's important because the reverse repo facility is basically the mopping up all of this extra money that's in the financial sector right now And with money market funds gaining a lot of assets and with short term interest rates going up you have even more money probably flowing into money market funds It used to pay zero and now they pay not a lot But more than zero you will probably see people move money out of deposits and into money market mutual funds And that will have a significant impact on liquidity So I think the Federated made kind of many policy mistake in that it didn't it didn't need to raise its balance sheet but it kept doing that So now it has to unwind that And it will happen pretty quickly They'll be able to run off without a $1 trillion pretty easily over the next year And then that just gets us back to twice as much as we were before the pandemic And maybe they could have thought huh we've had fiscal spending of $6 trillion No need to be scared right After the sharpest rebound from a recession in our lifetimes Anyway let me get to Esther George was talking to Michael McKee moments ago and she said conditions easily argue for going faster than before But we're going to see GDP step down And fiscal policy waning And then she said that we may have to go above neutral to bring inflation down Now it gets a little bit into the weeds of this whole idea of neutral rate And whether you're talking about real or nominal whatever but I keep thinking about Roberto perli from piper Sandler The other day he tweeted out really cool chart that shows the fed funds rate and his estimated nominal neutral rate Now to be fair I don't know it's estimated nominal I don't know where he got it But every time the fed funds rate hits or crosses through the neutral rate we go into a recession And especially if GDP is already slowing down and fiscal spending has dropped off a cliff like the size of Mount Everest Esther George must expect that we're going to the fed's going to put us into a recession Yeah well I think the fed the fed always talks about trying to engineer a soft landing right So be able to kind of slow the growth enough that they don't that we don't go into a recession but at the same time get inflation down And it's quite frankly it's never worked So soft landing doesn't exist The bond market is telling you right now we will be in a recession in the second half of next year So the market is already pricing for that eventuality.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A relief rally than a technical correction Exactly by the name It seems to be the theme of this morning at least we'll see if it lasts through the open What's interesting is that you're actually seeing a big tech stocks in particular lead the rally this morning kind of mixed in with some earning stories and of course those oil names And you have this two sides of the trade essentially that defensive tech trade that of course has the heavy weightings on its side but then you also have the oil piece of the equation which we know time and time again have continued to rally given those geopolitical tensions and driving or kind of I should say following up Brent's march up to $100 barrel WTI's as well So now you are of course seeing some of those names once again trickling at the top of the leaderboard this morning though when it comes to volume is AMD and Intel I should mention at the close yesterday AMD of course the chip maker Advanced Micro Devices reaching a $188 billion in market value surpassing its major rival Intel for the very first time both stocks are up over 1% this morning Nathan Well apart from all the geopolitics of course we still have a lot of earnings including this morning creedy A ton of earnings Let's start with Lowe's here LO W is your ticker up just shy of 3% rising on a sales fee and increase in a full year outlook a little bit of a divergence from what we heard from Home Depot yesterday where they're saying they're actually going to be a little bit of a deceleration in that profit growth going over 2022 A similar story when it comes to Apollo alto of course a cybersecurity stock PA and W is the ticker up 7.7% this morning after their second quarter results impressed the analyst beating most expectations in even getting an upgrade to neutral over at JPMorgan oscillators is the other one STA is your ticker there The carmaker up just shy of 7% in the pre market targeting double digit adjusted operating income margin and positive industrial free cash flow That's a lot of jargon for a really good quarter essentially And getting with it some good commentary from analysts as well The results the analysts saying that the results were quote much above expectations quote even the most bullish ones like us So good news for Stellantis I'll end here with Marathon Oil We started with oil I'll end here with piper Sandler upgrading it MRO to overweight in a note on the exploration production sector and reiterating its overweight weightings on dev and energy and pioneer natural Once again a good bit on oil MROs your ticker up to shy of 2% Nathan All right Bloomberg radio and TV markets correspondent critic Gupta with the daily pre market update and as we take a look at stocks as a whole Ahead of the Wednesday morning open futures are moving higher We have S&P futures up almost 24 points now Dow futures up a 150 NASDAQ futures are higher by a 126 points Ten year treasury is down 7 30 seconds the yield 1.96% Stay with us You're listening.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stan shower thank you to 6 37 on Wall Street time to take a look at stocks and some of the names moving in the pre market with Bloomberg radio and TV markets correspondent Cree Goethe creedy I see where starting off with a bit of earnings news this morning Yeah we absolutely are Nathan we're starting off with DocuSign ticker DOC you falling after the E signature company's quarterly revenue forecast missed analyst estimates stoking concerns about slowing growth after the COVID-19 pandemic fueled a surge in demand in 2020 Nathan though shoes are down 32% It could be their worst one day post earnings decline ever on history I guess people just aren't going and signing those documents Virtually anymore doing it in person Moving on to Nvidia to your nvda Those shares are down 6 tenths of a 1% after the U.S. FTC the Federal Trade Commission said it's suing Nvidia's acquisition of arm from SoftBank on antitrust concerns Remember they just got out of this litigation with the UK regulator and now they're having to deal with it here at home moving on to novavax take your NBA those shares are up Just shy of 6% saying it's developing an omicron specific vaccine construct while evaluates its existing vaccine against the variant remember this is up for a second day now And I'm going to end here with grab shares up after losing more than one 5th of their value on their first day of trading yesterday in its record breaking merger with a special purpose acquisition company or spac as we so lovingly call it This is the super app that's seen as a combination of Uber DoorDash and Venmo all in one those shares are up 7% in the pre market to your GR AB All right so some of the big names reporting this morning What else are you looking at Yeah some big names but then some little names were relatively some maybe perhaps lesser known names I'm going to start off with a sauna down after results to your ASAN down 15% after key being cut the software firm's price target on a reset in the stock's valuation piper Sandler saying that the slight deceleration in revenue and billings growth could also be disappointing investors I'm going to move on to marvel technology to get MRV This is not the filmmaker that makes the superhero movies This is a semiconductor company those shares are rising 19% after they actually beat their fourth quarter earnings estimates Morgan Stanley noting quote an exceptional quarter with surprising outperformance from enterprise networking strength in 5G and in cloud This is a big deal for a semiconductor company which we know has been struggling to meet that capacity I'm going to end here with an analyst change over at Deutsche Bank peloton up 3% or PTO and getting initiated at Deutsche Bank the analyst giving it a buy rating and a $76 price target saying there's more upside scenarios than downside scenarios Interesting so a little bit more of a stay at home play perhaps All right Bloomberg radio and TV markets correspondent creedy Gupta with us on the Friday morning pre market roundup and taking a look at stocks as a whole as we get set for the release of the November payrolls report futures are moving a bit lower with S&P futures down 9 points down futures down 58 NASDAQ futures down a 30 points the ten year treasury up 5 30 seconds yield 1.42%.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Thanks 6 37 on Wall Street Now time to take a look at stocks some of the names moving in the pre market this morning Bloomberg markets correspondent creedy Gupta is with us on a morning of big losses led by big tech creating Yeah Nathan absolutely those big tech earnings rolling in and Apple and Amazon reporting after the bell last night Let's start with Amazon missing Their fourth quarter forecasting its entire fourth quarter profit could be wiped out because of a labor and fulfillment cost surges So really impacting that holiday momentum that we were hoping Amazon would actually come through with Apple similar story also missing the revenue estimates this time iPhone Mac revenue all down iPad revenue though a pretty good The kicker here though was that they missed $6 billion in sales because they can't meet demand for its products and could lose even more next quarter So those shares are down 3.7% in the pre market Amazon shares down almost 5% in the pre market not to mention those post market losses yesterday and sticking with big tech We have to talk about Facebook up pre market Yesterday's big name change announcement Now it's meta Facebook shares or what will be meta shares in December up 8 tenths of 1% I want to throw this in here Nathan Medical materials Take her MMA sword as much as 32% People thought that was the name change For our listeners though mvr S will be the ticker for the new meta brand starting December 1st Yeah so put that in the calendar for sure That was a very interesting move What are you looking at outside of big tech though Besides meta material It's hard to get away from metamaterials But yeah I mean listen there's so many other earning stories Let's kick off a Starbucks too because you had this kind of reopening trade expected in a Starbucks actually said well that's not helping our business so much Their third quarter sales missed estimates saying those looser COVID restrictions aren't helping the company as much as they expected They did announce $20 billion of new dividends and share buybacks over the next three years Starbucks shared ticker SB UX Here's some about 5% in the pre market Then you have skechers Of course fourth quarter forecasts missing estimates saying it will consider a $1.5 billion IPO among other options for its Asia business I want to hit Chevron though because they just came out with really strong earnings here ticker CVX So strong that it's debt to capital ratio essentially how much debt the company has falling below is target the CFO saying it could increase those share buybacks We also have Exxon reporting a little bit later this morning Chevron shares up 2% in the pre market And lastly I want to get to a really big story here And that of course is zendesk in particular they boosted their full year revenue forecast This is a company that was talking about buying survey monkey and actually got downgraded by three companies Jeffries piper Sandler and Oppenheimer those shares are up a whopping 20 or down excuse me a whopping 20% of the free market All right Bloomberg markets correspondent pretty Gupta with us this Friday morning as we take a look at stocks as a whole ahead of the open after the Apple and Amazon misses.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Indeed some government exerted shutdowns fourth quarter China like for like sales down 7% but that's slightly better than the market have been expecting and they have an adjusted earnings per share of $1 This is a company that is still seeing perhaps the U.S. not opening up as quickly as we had anticipated 22% growth in U.S. like for like sales the market wanted to see 24% as we all got back to the office with our coffee in hand So weakening down 3.8% after hours also announcing 20 billion in new dividends and share buybacks over the next three years Well China ever grant has made another bond payment sources telling us some holders will receive or did so and overdue interest rate payment on Thursday That was within the 30 day grace period which was to have ended on Friday Now this payment comes a week after ever granted narrowly avoided defaulting on another bond That payment likewise came just a day ahead of default We're also getting indications that China ever grant has pledged a house for a lone made by China construction bank The home is owned by evergreen chairman quica Yan It is about 500 square 5000 ft² I should say it's on a peak in Hong Kong the value here $38.6 million being held as collateral We won't get trading an evergreen shares for about another two hours when the market in Hong Kong is up and running At the top of the hour we'll get trading in Tokyo and in Seoul right now the action in Sydney has been a bit choppy here in the early going right now A minor loss for the ASX 200 were well I am bespoke were actually higher by about a tenth of 1% right now We've been fluctuating between gains and losses here in the early going down under stateside we had records for both the S&P and the NASDAQ comp the S&P today up about 1% an all time high 45 96 NASDAQ composite at a record 15,004 48 by the way the game there was about 1.4% The strong earnings continued to power the market higher Today we had Tesla climbing 3.8% it finished at a record Piper Sandler today raised its price target on Tesla the firm is expecting higher gross margins and is also projecting increased unit volumes in the long-term Now in terms of the earnings story caterpillars profit was above estimates stock pop 4% Ford soared nearly 9% today after lifting forecast and resuming its dividend after the bell though we heard from both Apple and Amazon disappointment on both of those fronts Amazon with weaker than expected earnings and revenue and the company also gave very disappointing guidance If you look at Amazon shares right now in the late U.S. session those shares are off by just about 4% similar loss for shares in Apple in late U.S. trading We'll talk more about markets in 15 minutes Paul All right it's now ten 35 here in Sydney 7 35 in Hong Kong in time for a check of global news And China has dealt a blow to climate talks It Baxter has details It updated package shows no improved carbon plan It says it's sticking to existing targets to zero out of missions that it has to Glasgow What it does.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Dot com the Bloomberg business app And at Bloomberg quick take He's a Bloomberg business flash It was an earnings driven push higher for the U.S. equity market and we had record highs today for the S&P 500 in the NASDAQ comp by the S&P up 1% NASDAQ composite to picks up about 1.4% today Intraday the Dow actually was in record territory although we pulled back chest a bit we ended New York trading higher by about 7 tenths of 1% just shy of a record The numbers from caterpillar were above estimates on the profit side shares were up 4% Ford sword nearly 9% after lifting forecast and resuming its dividend and we had Tesla finishing at all time high Piper Sandler has raised its price target on the stock the firm is expecting higher gross margins for Tesla and the firm is also projecting increased unit volumes over the long term Interesting day in the bond market a bit of a turbulence here on one hand we had the U.S. GDP number coming in weaker than forecast an annual growth rate of 2% in the third quarter but as separate reports showed weekly jobless claims at a fresh pandemic low ten year treasury last quoted in New York at one 58 Now holders of some bonds on China evergreen did receive an overdue interest payment Thursday China time and we are told the payment happened within that 30 day grace period so I guess you could call it a sigh of relief and Coke is close to buying a controlling stake in the sports drink maker body armor we are told a deal with value body armor at about $8 billion We got a weaker dollar now as we get set for trading in Asia We'll take another look at market action for you in about 15 minutes An update on global news next Ed Baxter is in the Bloomberg 9 60 newsroom in San Francisco Ed All right thank you Douglas said U.S. president Joe Biden has reached what he's calling a framework for his spending package he believes can be quickly passed by Congress House speaker Nancy Pelosi says she may get.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's a company with a market cap in excess of $25 billion in late last month You might remember piper Sandler came out saying it was a top pick heading into the fourth quarter We're talking about the infrastructure software and data platform company Splunk where Teresa Carlson serves as president and chief growth officer Her background is pretty impressive She previously led Amazon Web Services public sector business for more than a decade And in just 6 months at her new company she says her work with clients to access use and secure data more important than ever There's no literally customers that I talk to people where I came here that didn't tell me that their use of black citizen is mission critical for their business And I think it's demonstrated through the tax of customers We work with which are really the fortune 100 90 plus of the fortune 100 customers work with us But it's going really well We are amazing to the clouds very quickly and that's one of the reasons I came over here to continue to have our customers move to the cloud and take full advantage of quant cloud How much was that move to the cloud accelerated during the pandemic And again I know you've only been there for 6 months but I know that you know about what's been happening there over the last 18 months during the pandemic I know that you have 93 of the 100 fortune 100 companies using the product How much of that how much was that accelerated during the pandemic and how much more room is there to grow Well we grew our annual cloud revenue over 70% for the tenth straight quarter And so it just continues to show you the acceleration of the cloud And I will share some my previous experience that AWS has given this because I ran our public sector business and industry's groups at AWS and during COVID we saw acceleration within our customers like two years to three years of acceleration to the cloud during the pandemic because they could not get into their data centers They could not give in and take advantage of their application So many of them had to port or rebuild those applications very quickly So especially if you're talking in mission critical areas like government and healthcare financial services telco areas that really the world can not do without They have to keep going So we had to figure out how they got use of their technology when many of their employees could not go into the data centers So you saw the growth of cloud computing really moving fast and I heard so many customers say it was such a differentiator for them in their business and their mission during that time And it also accelerated the use of cloud skills And of course one of the primary things that is as a data company the customers need to be able to take advantage of news or data as a result of that customers really started banking themselves How do I make that move more rapidly You guys think too And you have such a great perspective Theresa because you were leading the Amazon Web Services public sector business for more than a decade And then you of course are now at Splunk but I am curious about data democratization Is that truly achievable And what there always be some entities or parties or countries China for example that will have access to more and better data And so there will always be some kind of imbalance and power plays or power powerful components when it comes to the data universe Well I don't know about better data but efficiency of these to that data And there's still no company that drives innovation more rapidly than U.S. companies I mean if you look at the youth and the growth of cloud tools you know AWS that kind of started from scratch They are data They are web services from day one when nobody really even knew what cloud was And then you have Google you have Microsoft And you have this explosion of startups as a result of cloud computing And the company's in the U.S. and around the world that are developing as a result of cloud computing the access and lead that they have with data is quite amazing But I would say the most important is the ability to take advantage and use your data And one of the big key trends that's happening is open-source data that's out there can be utilized in massive ways to actually understand a problem set And you saw this as an example happening during COVID where you saw crowdsourcing going on So people could solve the problems faster or what was going on and have deeper understanding Right In terms of the data elements itself I would just say if you look at all the company like talent to your confluent and others have gone public you're seeing companies that are truly data driven and they have slices of the way they use their data and tag it that allows these companies to really do things that they never thought of doing Now I can throw their data in somewhere and it gets organized I don't have to put it in all these tables That's Teresa Carlson president and chief growth officer at the publicly traded software maker and data company Splunk You're listening to Bloomberg businessweek coming up next We pick up on our conversation from last week with the founder chairman and CEO of Dell Technologies None other than Michael Dell including his thoughts on the next big technological breakthrough and facing down Carl icahn Gotta say in the book he talks about having dinner at Carl icahn's house and misses icon cooked for them It's a great read And that's another addition of Bloomberg businessweek talks.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"piper sandler" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's a company with a market cap in excess of $25 billion in late last month You might remember piper Sandler came out saying it was a top pick heading into the fourth quarter We're talking about the infrastructure software and data platform company Splunk where Teresa Carlson serves as president and chief growth officer Her background is pretty impressive She previously led Amazon Web Services public sector business for more than a decade and in just 6 months at her new company she says her work with clients to access use and secure data more important than ever There's no literally customer that I talked to before I came here that didn't tell me that their use of things that is mission critical for their business And I think it's demonstrated through the ties to customers We work with which are really the fortune 100 90 plus of the fortune 100 customers or with us But it's going really well We are moving to the cloud very quickly and that's one of the reasons I came over here to continue to have our customers move to the cloud and take full advantage of quant cloud How much was that move to the cloud accelerated during the pandemic And again I know you've only been there for 6 months but I know that you know about what's been happening there over the last 18 months during the pandemic I know that you have 93 of the 100 fortune 100 companies using the product How much of that how much was that accelerated during the pandemic and how much more room is there to grow Well we grew our annual cloud revenue over 70% for the tenth straight quarter And so it just continues to show you the acceleration of the cloud And I will kind of share some of my previous experience that AWS had given straight at this because I ran our public sector business and industries groups at AWS and during COVID we saw acceleration within our customers like two years to three years of acceleration to the cloud during the pandemic because they could not get into their data centers They could not give in and take advantage of their applications So many of them had the port or rebuild those applications very quickly So especially if you're talking in mission critical areas like government and healthcare financial services telco areas that really the world can not do without They have to keep going So we had to figure out how they got used of their technology when many of their employees could not go into the data centers So you saw the growth of cloud computing really moving fast and I heard so many customers say it was such a differentiator for them in their business and their mission during that time And it also accelerated the use of cloud skills And of course one of the primary things that black is as a data company the customers need to be able to take advantage of news or data So as a result of that customers really started saying to themselves how do I make that move more rapidly You guys think too And you have such a great perspective Theresa because you were leading the Amazon Web Services public sector business for more than a decade And then you of course are now at Splunk but I am curious about data democratization Is that truly achievable And what there always be some entities or parties or countries China for example that will have access to more and better data And so there will always be some kind of imbalance and power plays are power powerful components when it comes to the data universe Well I don't know about better data that efficiency of the use of that data And there's still no company that drives innovation more rapidly than U.S. companies I mean if you look at the youth and the growth of cloud tools you know AWS that kind of started from scratch They are data they are with services from day one when nobody really even knew what cloud was And then you have Google you have Microsoft and you have this explosion of startups as a result of cloud computing And the company's in the U.S. and around the world that are developing as a result of cloud computing the access and lead that they have with data is quite amazing But I would say the most important is the ability to take advantage and use your data And one of the big key trends that's happening is open-source data that's out there can be UIs in massive ways to actually understand a problem set And you saw this as an example happening during COVID where you saw crowds or some going on So people could solve the problems faster if what was going on and have deeper understanding Right In terms of the data elements itself I would just say if you look at all the companies like talent to your confluent and others have gone public you're seeing tempting that are truly data driven And they have slices of the way they use their data and tag it that allows these companies to really do things that they never thought of doing Now I can throw their data in somewhere and it gets organized They don't have to put it in all these tables That's Teresa Carlson president and chief growth officer at the publicly traded software maker and data company Splunk You're listening to Bloomberg business week Coming.
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
Tesla Teases AI Day and Partnership With Famed Roboticist
"Let's talk about this news on. Ai day overnight. We got this tweet from dr dennis. Hong who is a professor at ucla and the founding director of their robotics and mechanisms laboratory. Anyway he tweeted out. This photo of some beautifully rendered computer hardware. Sang tusla a day. August nineteen twenty twenty one at palo alto california five. Pm pd so we had a date now. Looks like we also have a time and a location for ai. And we're left to speculate on what this hardware is and why dr hung is tweeting this out. Dr hong certainly enjoyed stirring up that speculation. He's got a number of tweets. Replies here as well as likes on other tweets that have encouraged speculation. I would say one of his first replies since that original tweet was to question asking if the ucla lab was now associated with tesla and fasd. Aung san can't say anything just yet with a couple of playful emojis at it. Of course we've seen tesla partner with academic labs in the past for research. Great example of that on the battery fronts being with jeff. Don somebody brought that arrangement up and reply and harm replied to that saying dot dot dot or something else dot dot dot blowing a kiss emoji if we dig back a little bit further we can actually see that this tweet that does have this photo rendered in. It isn't the first time he's talked about his involvement with tesla. It does go back a few days prior. So i found this tweet from july twenty ninth and it's in korean but it doesn't include another post from hong. I believe on a different social media platform. That's also in korean. So i translated the immature. But you can see hong talking about the secret project that he's involved in with tesla. Apparently there was supposed to be an announcement scheduled for the twelfth of august and that he's finding out via twitter that it's delayed till the nineteenth referencing eons tweet where he announced the date for at
WORLD OVER
"piper sandler" Discussed on WORLD OVER
"Matters a lot too. Because it's it's their dad's it's their people in. They're not there to fight for right and you are. Well you got that right. Now is jimmy dunn co founder of sandler o'neill and investment firm. That was headquartered. In the south tower of the world trade center on september eleventh armed with his faith and business accurate he rebuilt his firm and the lives of the families who lost loved ones on that terrible day. He joins me tonight to talk about how his faith sustained him through this trial he also made headlines recently for his commencement address at his beloved alma mater. The university of notre dame. Please welcome vice chair of piper sandler. Jimmy don thanks for being with us jimmy. First off some graduated from notre dame last week and as you know and your commencement speech was one of the most powerful. I've ever heard no filler. All lived experience. And i'm glad you're with us today. I want to start with what you did. In the aftermath of nine eleven. Your firm was devastated. Your partners are gone. And you're on a golf course. What happened well you know i had. We had an unbelievable firm and we at great partners and we an executive media crisp black mission. Herman santa that would just incredible and it was funny. The date not funny but the the day before her said you do. Don't call it in the morning. We'll be fine crystal. Be here and i'll be here and i was trying to qualify for the menam. I was called in get involved the trade and get distracted so he was zipping about not doing that. And so i actually didn't call in which was very rare for me and then I was on about the fourth hole and a man came out. had sick. had to call your office. He was clear about what it was. And by the time driving back he said a plane had hit the world trade center. I made the assumption. It was a small plane. I'm head couldn't envision what happened and then i gold. I couldn't go the office. Obviously because the phones were not working. I called my house and a friend was there and she said you know real plane like a seven forty seven and you better..
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
Chinese Lithium Giant Agrees to Three-Year Pact to Supply Tesla
"Everybody rob now. We're here today. We were talking about a potential new battery supplier for tesla. Also we're going to take a look at two b s next delivery timelines some updates. That are happening. There tesla expanding to a couple of new countries and we'll take a look at the updated situation in china as well. We've got no morgan stanley discussing that. Calmer waters for tesla today. Seems like people were really looking for a green day and we got that today. Up three point. Two percent to five hundred eighty nine dollars. Seventy four cents. The nasdaq was really strong today. As well finishing up two point three percent super-quick correction from yesterday and apartments. Were not gonna talk too much about bitcoin today. Only about thirty seconds here. But yesterday i did mistakenly say that tesla started their bitcoin position. Mid march i was thinking of when they sold. A small portion actually started their position either in january or february and announced that on february eighth so just wanted to clarify that and one other thing that i wanted to point out. Just because i've seen a lot of discussion on whether tussles decision making here would influence institutional investors and things like that. It's probably worth remembering that when we talked to alex potter of piper sandler back in february. I asked if he had been getting a lot of calls about tesla investing in bitcoin. In the first place he said quote not a lot to be honest and then added quote. It's not as though we had us have been coming questions on bitcoin after this announcement and so just worth a reminder sometimes when things are happening people point to them as a reason for x. y. or z. Happening things can tend to get and feel very amplified but sometimes that doesn't necessarily match the not trying to say that the discussion about bitcoin and cryptocurrency as it relates to tesla is not important but sometimes in the day to day. Those relatively smaller pieces of the big picture can feel like they're just dominating the discussion and in those cases sometimes it can be helpful. Just have like cleanse and revisit. Some of the things that are relatively more important. So that you don't get or feel bogged down by the smaller details. So those are my thoughts on that and that is the last. We'll talk about bitcoin for the day and for the week pending ilan tweets while recording.
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
Q And A With Alex Potter And Rob Maurer
"Everybody robbing our here today, we are joined live by Alex Potter off Piper Sandler Alex Cover Tesla for a long time, we've had him on the podcast a couple of times. So today we're just going to go through. You know everything that has changed in the last few months with Tesla. Alex. is on a lot of research autonomy on energy and then we're also gonNA talk a little bit about Battery Day We are GONNA be doing Q. and A.. So on Alex's side, they have their investors pepper sandler investors are going to be asking some questions and on my end If you WANNA, ask questions on Youtube feel free to do that. We're going to select a few of those to you also go through So thanks for joining Alexander Smith, and you want to add to that Andrew. I don't think so very much looking forward to it. As Rob mentioned I'm analyst at Piper Sandler. I cover Tesla and for our institutional clients were dowd right now you can. I know there's a Q. A. Function. So Jessen corporate access watching that, and if you have any questions, you would like test me or or rob. You can either use that function or you can send me an email I've got my emails up here. as well. So maybe I don't know what do you want to I'll ask you to do an intro. You introduce yourself I my audience understands who you are and then all of the same. Sure. Yes. Oh. My Name's Roy Moore. I have been a retail investor in Tesla since two thousand, thirteen I started doing the Tesla daily sort of. podcast back in August twenty seventeen the reason I did that was just because I saw a lot of misinformation out there in the media and I thought a lot of investors were having trouble getting good accurate information in a timely manner I felt like I can help with that just because I was doing so much research on the company every single day. So just on a whim, sorta started Tesla daily as podcast, and since then it's grown, I took a fulltime last year on Youtube and over the last year of we've gained about one, hundred, thousand subscribers. So a lot of people definitely interested in Tusla and interested in it from an investment perspective. and I'm lucky to be joined by people like Alex Lincoln, help us understand that. And also has more or less has a monopoly on the question asking. Comes to the quarterly earnings calls as well. I might add so if Obviously the test approach during these earnings calls is is atypical, but for institutional investors and another sell CIDERS You know when we started seeing this say dot com stuff it was sort of Sort of jarring a little bit odd. But for those who are unaware. that works by vote process. So people like rob and others they submit questions on behalf of retail investors and then they get up voted and rob because of the quality of his questions and get basically. Five out of five or something. Questions while you're limited so only. I've cut myself down to two because it's you know everyone should have an opportunity and not everybody else audience. So. That's generous. All right. Okay. So how do you want to do this route I? This is this is going to be the third time that Robin I've had discussion. That's been sort of a an interview. Interviewer interviewee sort of a a a setup but I think this time and we can do it that way as well. I know that we've got some topics we want to get through but then after after that, we can open up to Q. and A., and if nobody has been accused or as than Robin Top, we'll ask her own questions. Yes I think I want to start off with just your last couple of notes since we last talked again as did the the big updates deep dives on both the energy business and the economy business, and that's something that particularly retail investors have been frustrated with. I don't know if it's you know institutions or Wall Street or analyst in general, just not really modeling for those things and so I just like to you know go through what your models are sort of showing and the thought process that you approach them with I don't know that's a broad question. So I guess we're GONNA Kinda start wherever without. So I think it's. It's not just retail investors that are frustrated with it. I mean I think that investors in general are frustrated with IT A. Topics in particular software autonomy, self-driving row taxis. But then also the. Stationary storage business energies are or the. Batteries. Gigantic Mega Pack, Grid scale type batteries a lot of people they approach these topics without really knowing what to do with it like how'd you build a model? in the first place, it's not like the auto business where we're getting tons of data from lots of different regions market share pricing you know people are tracking these things on a daily basis and you can. You can track Tesla's progress. You have a much harder time doing something similar in the stationary storage business like if I was to ask you. How many megawatt hours of stationary storage were installed last month and what Tesla's market share within that in Europe was. People would be like I have no I don't I don't have any of the Ammo to answer that question, but they answer those questions daily for the auto business. Right so partially, it's a question of you know data availability partially, it's also a question of PNL contribution like these topics aren't a big enough needle mover today in terms of what Tesla's going to do in any given quarter. So people just don't devote as much bandwith to it. but that being the case. Especially, the bigger the market cap gets hired valuation goes the more you have to consider. Pieces of the business like this that you know at least if you're GonNa believe, you must take him at his word that these parts of the business. Core right and potentially at one point going to be as large or larger than the automotive business. If that's even the right zip code, then you can't just continue ignoring them. So you know we firstly published a big sort of deep dive on. On autonomy and The soffer opportunity. Then we did a note that wouldn't know that I would call it a deep dive on the energy business because we're still sort of getting our feet wet there But. Yeah. I. I don't know if you had an opportunity to read them that. They get a little bit detailed But. It was educational, one way or another, and at least now we have a framework for thinking through You know how big these businesses could potentially be, and
Equity
Equity shot: What's going on with Tesla's stock price?
"An equity shot is when something happens that we get really really excited about and then we realized which taken off of slack and put it on to the podcast. Today we're going back to the very beginning of the show. We're talking about Tesla which she asks. I know it's not a private company. But if you go back episode one of equity. We're talking about Tesla reason too much of money because fascinating firm. I Have Danny Crichton with me. Danny how are you? I'm doing good although I think we should call it an equity shot. It's more like an equity joint because I am so high on this high stock price. The I did not see that joke coming. But I'll take it. You'll unless of course famously. Smokey joint on some podcast. I forget what it was called. But we're here today because Tesla share price is up yet again looking like it's going to close at an all time record. High currently above nine twentieth share up over seven percent amd we're going to go through the kind of bullish take care the bearish take care. What's going on and I'll talk a little bit about the fundamentals behind the company and how they've really honestly improved so any rate time ready as we said before the show if you go back in time to roughly. I think it was last June. You could buy Tesla for about one hundred. Eighty five dollars shares magically masterfully. They're up to nearly a thousand dollars a share and you know when you think about Tesla and its financial improvements over the last couple years. It's had some but certainly not to the extent of rescinded share price. Changing my impression is that there's enthusiasm going on here. That may not be tied to fundamentals with autism. It's all multiple expansion here so I think people are getting really excited about the potential electric cars. Certainly not as in the United States but around the world to for instance I think Singapore just last week said that they wanted to be the first country to only have electric vehicles. Mean like the next decade or two right. So there's these huge initiatives around electric cars and then you've got batteries. You've got a lot of the supply. Didn't stuff that that Tesla's in and then you have just the general called marketing stick. I mean I think we we used to follow invidia. Quite a bit early is to focus on. Invidia quit a bit and retail shares stocks called a Robin Hood share right. Everyone who has a Robin Hood account is like following video news day to day and I think that that's been replaced by Tesla Tesla for sure. Amd will also hot for a long time back. In the CRYPTO currency boom. There's been a lot of companies that are kind of come and gone but I think Tesla's probably the kind of the granddaddy of them all from that perspective but more data about the trading world. This isn't actually Tesla's all time intraday high it. My research holds up that was actually back in February fourth when Tesla had an insane range of eight hundred and thirty three dollars a share to nine hundred sixty eight I think kind of sets the stage for understanding Tesla's price movements which is at their wild and they seem to be based on competing warring religious cults people that are obsessed with Tesla and the future of battery tech and electric cars and getting off a fossil fuels and you know loving Elon. Musk and then people who care more about fundamentals even as Tesla's windmills have honestly improved over the last eighteen months quite a lot. You know absolutely and I. It's crazy is if you look at it. Post Two thousand thirteen from twenty thirteen to twenty nineteen that the stock was essentially flat. I mean they're gonNA has ups and downs and typical gyrations but it was sort of a a wait-and-see stock I mean what's grits. Nuts is just in the last couple of months like four months. It's gone from a low of just below two hundred dollars a share to now we're looking at it as a recording it at two. I'm sorry nine twenty eight and so I mean we're looking at a four X. in three month return profile. I mean look we talk about South Thank Vision Fund on equity all the time but this this is sort of what they were looking for right. It's like literally it's not even a private company. It's a public company. Just bought again with Robin Hood. I don't think you can actually open a Robin Hood Account. Though the hundred billion in cash that would play break. Something in the Robin Hood Landscape but just put this in perspective. Everybody of what we're kind of thinking about. We pulled up. Tesla's financials and so we're going to bore you with a couple of numbers and then we're GonNa talk about what can driving hand today's movement but the reason why this price movement feels so fantastic and so fascinating to watch is because even though Tesla has improved. It's it's profitability. It's cash position it's cash flow. It hasn't grown that much. And if you go back in time looking at the year ending. December twenty eighteen Tesla had total revenues of twenty one. Point five billion give or take and if you look at this last year it was twenty four point six so some growth to be clear but certainly not a lot and in q four q four. Eighteen Tesla had seven point two million in revenue and Q. Four of nineteen seven point four so just Mata Games of growth and improve profitability. Is the difference here so it could be a mixed shift in what they're selling. It could be optimism about the battery market. And there's a lot of possibilities driving this boom. I Tesla but I'm curious Danny. What is your favorite of the various hypotheses that are bouncing around? I think it's a huge expectation around future product lines right so if you look at the units delivered by Tesla over the last two years being Tesla really has expanded writer was just a couple of years. Ago Is under twenty five thousand units a quarter in Q. Four twenty nine thousand dollars. According to Teesta it was well over one hundred thousand one hundred. Fifteen thousand units were delivered quarter. So it has. It has sold more cars. You know four or five act so that that's part of the number here but I think you start to look at like cyber truck which is entering a much more higher margin part of the vehicle market in the mid to large size semi trucks. And the I think the challenges is like. There's there's this gap of like you know. Yes there were one hundred thousand or have cyber trucks were supposedly preordered Alex nor is a fifty eight billion based on how many tweets stupidity excitement. Yes yes but you know the challenges that those were not full deposits right like there are no cars to be sold and they're not going to be cars to be sold for a long period of time and so. I think there's just this huge which we saw the same thing with Softbank. Which is there's this huge prediction of like well look assuming everything goes right over the next four to five years then we will buy into the valuation as if everything was being sold in two thousand twenty three. Unfortunately there's so much risk coming up. I mean it was crazy to me. Is we talking about apple and Amazon? A bunch of others AIRBNB who've been suffering from chronic virus but tesla's a huge Chinese market. I mean we were talking about the Shanghai gigafactory or gigafactory for their new battery which just launched what two three months ago and is now sort of been hit? Hard by by the virus. What what other issues art is Tesla? GonNa come up within the next couple of years that that to me is a huge open question. Well the operating points pretty good if you look back. Tesla's latest earnings investor presentation for example You go to page eighteen following along at home. They show have a rolling twelve month delivery number and in Q. Four trailing twelve months of deliveries reached over three hundred fifty thousand for Unit. So they have always a hit material scale global scale. And so when you bring up these new models to me. They've actually proven their ability to do that. And at increase scale and all that a similar level of quality which means that they can watch model. Why cyber truck that really fast roadster that they showed for four minutes and never did anything with put that out please? I want to go bankrupt. So tell me one she please does. I want to stay married. That's more I hear. The roadster does super well New England winters. Yeah it's designed actually for Rhode Island's a narrow cobbled streets and I think the cyber trucks tank like atmosphere is what you're looking for for Rhode Island. Well especially the kids. I'll need those unbreakable windows. Okay but going back to today and what's driving this one day shift and Tesla's stock price drove us. Mad is looking at what's going on. There was a new analyst. Note coming out. Invesco strategist Tim. Horace Bra talked a lot. About how the Fed's decision learned. The quantity was helping drive momentum stocks of which is of course one. Alex Potter an analyst with the Piper Sandler raised his price target for Tesla to above nine hundred bucks a share. A little late given that already is but hey you know better late than having a one hundred ninety nine target which is what seen in business and then of course. There's also some rumors going around that In China to tinkering with a new kind of cobalt free battery which is supposed to be important. Even though I will admit I was a chemistry. So a couple of things confluence that I've picked up Enthusiasm momentum and this is the best for the Washington this is like the old bitcoin. We seventeen when bitcoin was hot. And you can watch it every day and it was fun. That's Tesla's stock today. I don't know what that means for the company but I'm having a hell of a time just watching this stuff happened absolutely and I think I think another statistic I would use on this front. Which would take into account allow this news which is the percentage of Tesla's shares held by institutions? Actually pretty low. I it's fifty five percent. Suit is a COP apple obviously pretty well known company at sixty three percent right and in many cases those institutions held for a long time so Tesla's largest shareholder baillie Gifford. We interviewed a Charles Plowden. Who HEADS UP THE PRIVATE MARKETS? Investing at Baillie Gifford for extra credit last year and they've been the company for more than a decade of our call and part of what I think the magic is for Tesla is you have this base of very long-term acid holders who believe in the company and have been holding a long period of time. And then you have this controversy in the retail market of people. Saying we'll do. Do I see two thousand going even higher right? And so the the debate between long and short ends up driving so much attention to the shares. That it's the dinner party stock conversation that you're hearing on. God's a bit of a carnival atmosphere to it you know Elon. Musk And grinds Elon. Musk and Joe Rogan Elon. Musk and this and that I mean he's become a celebrity in such a way that it's rare to see and the ruggedly buttoned up world of business. I mean I mean not to bring up. We were just you know owners Lee. Belykh Adam Newman had a touch of the celebrity to him in the semi that you must does. Though a fraction of what you Llaneras and normally we see people when they become wealthy and powerful retreat into their shells but like the Google founders. And how they kind of step back from the public light incrementally and now entirely from their company. Ilan doesn't give it you know dealing with throw. A rocket is truck and shutters. Window will just do it again. I mean talk a bow different. And that's that's the that's entertainment on a more serious note before we go to any One other thing we didn't touch on that could be driving enthusiasm. Sentiment and share price. Surges is Tesla's solar panel stuff. And I say stop because I'm reading today. That the solar roof that they brought out years ago and never really. Kinda put on the market is ramping up. And so we're seeing Tesla differentiate not in the automotive space but also outside of that in the in the ultrasound generation and storage space which some people believe could be a huge growth opportunity for the company. And I don't know how you feel about Ciller but I think that's probably true I think is probably the economics have gotten a better for solar and I again. I I think the magic of the share today is do you believe in each of the expansion opportunities for each of these different business lines and I think I think when you let me give you a comparison. Bordier a Canadian company who used to make snow. Mobiles expanded into planes trains jets and all kinds of other categories over the last couple years just this morning announced it was selling off its trained business to Allston French large Train manufacturer and really it was a story. overexpansion right. Here's a company that sort of got out of what it knew what to do. It got into jets trains and get it all these different spaces and so the question is do you believe in the musk magid. I mean that's sort of the bet that everyone has to believe in which is look. It's not just going from model to model three. It's not just going to cyber track. Meets still car at the end of day. Now you're getting into solar panels. Now you're getting into battery construction for not just homes but also at like a nation state scale kind of battery technology and I all. These are just technical. Risk that up like every single one of these is a completely new product. So I think you know. That's the bet that everyone has to make and that's why it's so exciting. Yeah Yeah Yeah. I totally agree with that but the all throughout there is that incomes tesla. It feels less of a musk better than it used to be. Because the company no longer bleeds so much cash at once. You stop bleeding. Cash and can begin to generate material consistent operating cash flow and free cash flow and more strict metric. You're willing Rome destiny and you have more space to make mistakes before it. Always only Tesla was on a tightrope if they missed this launch. That factory blew up. That tech. Didn't sell whatever that was. GonNa be the end of the company. They made a series of all. In bets of your poker player. Was My impression watching the company for years now with trailing operating cash flow positively and free casual Timothy. The company's kind of okay generated over the last four quarters over a billion dollars in free cash flow and just I believe did a placement of shares for a couple of billion at very high share price which is super smart. You know getting anymore taught so you know the first thing that we learned on this show was Jason Lincoln telling us that Elon. Musk is better at raising money than anyone else in the history of the world. He's that he's able to go out there and get cash and here again. He's doing it twice once running the company last and two from the share price surge. So Tesla is in the best shape it's ever been. I don't know if it's worth nine hundred twenty dollars. But the days of four twentieth funding secured certainly are behind us. And Danny. I'll give you the last word. I think the thing to pay attention to again as I think mosques the magic here but it goes beyond that I I do think marketing if you look at GM Ford you know. The large automobile manufacturers a huge part of their cost structure is marketing right. Like the amount of money you see it when you watch The Super Bowl. You'll see this when you watch different kinds of sports games. There's massive marketing budgets to push cars off the dealership at Tesla. Has this magic with a person who basically gets free advertising every single day on the business pages on the front cover of magazines or seeing must. You're seeing Tesla. All that is free business and so again you have cool cars. You have great marketing. You're not paying for any of it. You have free cash flow. It's clearly a more stable coming in. There was a couple of years ago. And there's this huge kind of expansion opportunities on the horizon coming up. You know that all up together I understand the lungs. I also understand the shorts but I guess we'll sort of see where it all comes together in the next couple weeks. Yeah and by the good call on the importance of free marketing. For Tesla as we're sitting here squeezing an extra equity episode just fine on Tesla because we found so entertaining so it's not nefarious per se is just if you care about financial markets and companies and growth. You can't not be watching