20 Episode results for "Piper Jaffrey"

Virginia Piper Pt. 1

Hostage

37:59 min | 2 years ago

Virginia Piper Pt. 1

"Have you checked out my new podcast survival yet, if not you're really missing out, it tells high intensity stories of people in life or death situations and explores the strategies they use to stay alive search for and subscribe to survival wherever you listen to podcasts, and please don't forget to rate and review. This episode features discussion of kidnapping and extreme violence that some people may find offensive listener discretion is advised especially for children under thirteen. Forty nine year old Virginia piper never expected to find herself at gunpoint least of all in her own home where she didn't even bother locking the doors at night. But now she found herself staring down the barrels of four guns ever the consummate hostess, she tried to play it cool after all. She's Ginny piper. She can talk to anyone even burglars though. Admittedly, too large nervous men, waving guns were not ideal houseguests they asked her where her husband was. And she admitted he was at work at this. The two men grew enraged, but Ginny didn't react. She's simply smiled swallowing her fear hoping to put them at ease. She had one priority to get herself into her house staff through this alive. She invited the men to rifle through her jewelry and assured them they were welcome to anything in the house. She wasn't expecting them to take that literally one of the men withdrew a pair of handcuffs as his partner aimed as gun MRs piper. He said you're going with us. This is hostage on the par cast network. Every Thursday, we tell the stories behind the most captivating hostage situations and the people inside them. I'm Carter, ROY. And I'm Irma. Blanco will also cover the psychological tactics used in hostage negotiations and what the human brain does when held captive park assist. We are grateful for you our listeners, you allow us to do what we love let us know how we're doing reach out on Facebook and Instagram at par cast and Twitter at par cast network. And if you enjoy today's episode the best way to help us is to leave a five star review wherever you are listening. It really does help we also now have merchandise head to park cast dot com slash merch. For more information. This is our first episode on the kidnapping of forty nine year old socialite Virginia piper. From her home outside Minneapolis, Minnesota in nineteen seventy two on the afternoon of July twenty seventh Ginny as she was known was working in her garden when two masked gunmen kidnapped her in the ensuing. Forty eight hours her family and the FBI tried frantically to follow the kidnappers demands and pay the ransom hoping against hope that she'd survive this week will look at Virginia piper and her family the events surrounding her abduction and the initial response of her family, the FBI and the public next week will track how her husband Bobby piper and the FBI work to satisfy the detailed ransom demands. As Ginny fought to survive captivity. We'll also delve into the psychology of. A tense hostage situation and look at how this became one of the most unusual kidnappings in US history. In nineteen sixty eight four years before Ginny piper was taken a terrorist group known as the Popular Front for the liberation of Palestine or the PFLP hijack several airplanes flying around Europe in the Middle East. They held crew and passengers hostage in the hopes of getting both attention for the Palestinian plight and the release of hundreds of their fellow fighters. This event inspired a pandemic of kidnappings worldwide as desperate people seeking money freedom attention or even transportation to another country realize they could capture the world's attention by putting other people's lives at risk from their kidnappings and hijackings fill the news on a seemingly nightly basis. Db Cooper, Patty, Hearst, the October crisis in Quebec the normality store robbery in Sweden to name, but a few in fact, it became so common. And for planes to be hijacked and rerouted to Cuba that airlines began equipping each plane with flight paths to Havana in the likelihood they would eventually need them in the early nineteen seventies anyone in a position of money or power knew they were a potential target. And yet the piper families seemed blissfully unaware that they're wealthy socialite status. Put them in the line of fire after all they lived in Minnesota things like that just didn't happen there until they did no one actually knows who kidnapped Virginia piper shortly before the statute of limitations on the case ran out the FBI charge two men with the crime Kenneth Callahan and Don Larsen, but they were ultimately exonerated. And in many ways, they were never very good suspects with the only piece of evidence against them seemingly doctored by the F B I to frame them. What we do know. No is there were at least two men involved. And that they were both hefty middle aged guys who seemed to be of a working class background judging from their manner of speaking during her capture Ginny asked one of her captors questions about himself and the plan and she said, he volunteered some information. But admittedly, she wasn't sure if anything he told her was true, what he told her painted a picture of a Man Who Wasn't a career criminal who probably didn't even have a criminal record, though, he likely had friends who did he also made? It seem like there was a mastermind behind the whole operation controlling every moving part to keep them from getting caught. Ideally without anyone getting hurt. But whatever their reasons one thing is certain these re people who knew the piper family and their dealings intimately someone who felt wronged by the wealthy family and was eager to settle the. Score. And unfortunately for Jimmy they weren't picky about which piper. They took. Virginia piper was born on November twenty fourth nineteen twenty two the second of five glamorous sisters from a well-to-do Minneapolis family while the sisters were regular fixtures on the Minneapolis Saint Paul social scene, they didn't seek attention. They were so called accomplished young women of the inter war period who played musical instruments, Rhode horses played upper class sports and danced. Although they also went to public high schools in were raised to believe that giving back to their community was the most important thing they could do after getting married, even among this group Virginia always stood out. She was friendly and outgoing happy to talk to anyone in share her opinions. She had a magnetic quality after being chosen as homecoming Queen at our high school. She went to a two year women's college in Massachusetts on a music scholarship in nineteen forty. And when she returned to Minnesota two years later at age nineteen she married twenty four year old hairy piper. Whom everyone called Bobby Bobby a Princeton graduate. Also from Minneapolis seemed in many ways to be Jimmy's, antithesis, quiet and reserved. He avoided public attention and barely shared his emotions and personal thoughts with even his closest friends after serving in the army air corps in World War Two he returned home in nineteen forty six to join his father stockbrokerage piper Jaffray and Hopwood colloquially known as piper Jaffray when his father retired. Bobby became CEO of piper. Jaffray in grew it into a major investment firm that Jenny and Bobby where a team she was a crucial part of the landscape at piper Jaffrey, and in addition to advising Bobby on business matters often accompanied him. On business trips while she didn't have a job she joined the board of nearby northwestern hospital to which she dedicated a tremendous amount of time and energy, but despite Giannis, outgoing nature and dozens of close friends she enjoyed her privacy. She didn't want to be in the public eye any more than her husband did gossip and tabloids were for celebrities athletes and public figures, not for private citizens, however, wealthy or philanthropic. So they bought a five bedroom house on seven and a half acres of land in the quiet suburb of orono just outside the twin cities there they raised their three sons Harry tad and David I'm Jeannie loved working in her garden, and while many of their wealthier neighbors hired fulltime staff, the pipers never did they weren't ostentatious people, and they didn't even think of themselves as especially wealthy though. Oh, they did consider it important to give what money they did have back to their community. It never occurred to them that the comfortable life. They were developing would one day make them a target. Next. We'll see how Ginny went from housewife to hostage. Robin Hood is an investing Abdallah to buy and sell stocks ETF's options and cryptos all commission free. While other brokerages charge up to ten dollars for every trade. Robinhood doesn't charge any commission fees. See can trade stocks and keep all your profits. Plus, there's no account minimum deposit needed to get started. So you can start investing it any level. This simple intuitive design of robinhood makes investing easy for newcomers and experts alike view, easy to understand charts and market data and place a trade in just four taps on your smartphone. You can also use stop collections such as one hundred most popular with Robin Hood, you can learn how to invest in the market as you build your portfolio. Discover new stocks track your favorite companies and get custom notifications for price movements. So you never miss the right moment to invest Robin Hood is giving listeners of hostage of free stock like apple Ford or sprint to help you build your portfolio. Sign up at hostage dot, Robin, Hood dot com. What would you do to stay alive? Would you drink your own urine? Would you? Wait through snake infested water, which you cut off your own arm? Any of those things you might be surprised at the lengths you'd go to in order to stay alive and every week my new show survival tells the high intensity stories of people in life or death situations and explores the strategies they use to survive survival. Also, examines the lasting psychological effects of living through a traumatic event, and what it's like to return to normal life. You won't want to miss the astonishing story of one survivors heroin escape attempt from a North Korean internment camp. And there's the amazing account of a pilot and a passenger who were stranded in the snowy Canadian Yukon after a plane crash. Their stories exemplify the human spirits ability to triumph over deadly adversity. New episodes come out every Monday search for and subscribe to survival wherever you listen to podcasts again search survival or visit park cast dot com slash survival to listen now survival. How far would you go to stay alive? Now back to the story. By the time the summer of nineteen seventy-two rolled around. Bobby Ginny piper. Where a well. Established part of the Minneapolis. Saint Paul gentry the forty nine year old. Ginny would be called a socialite serving on the hospital board and regularly hosting events. Now, fifty four years old Bobby had a seat on the new York Stock Exchange board of governors in addition to heading piper Jaffray, the pipers were known for having an open door policy at their house in the well to do suburb of orono the front door was rarely locked as the neighborhood was generally considered safe and friends and relatives were constantly dropping by for Coffey a cigarette or one of Jimmy's famous cocktails the most regular visitors. Were Ginny sisters and their families all of whom lived in the area her four sisters, Charlotte. Carol Dana and Gretchen were all active in the Minneapolis social scene, though, it was Ginny and Charlotte known. Shy around whom the family congregated. And then there were the pipers three sons in nineteen seventy two the oldest twenty eight year old Harry see piper. The third held a degree in economics from Harvard. He had also completed law school at Stanford before taking a job in the Justice Department's civil rights division. He and his wife. Valerie had recently decided to move back to Minneapolis with their young son. Harry had spent the last several months studying for the Minnesota bar, which he took that summer wall. Harry was the oldest piper son and felt a tremendous amount of pressure from his parents who is also quite different from them and always felt a bit removed, especially from his father, a young man in the sixties and seventies. He was a progressive democrat while his parents were traditional Republicans. He also didn't share his parent's desire for privacy while in his twenties and thirties, he ran. Friends campaign for state office and considered running for congress himself. He would later go on to become a part time journalist and creative writer unafraid of putting himself out there. That summer was also the first in a while that Ginny had all her sons back in Minneapolis their youngest David age nineteen with whom Ginny was especially close had just finished his freshman year at Whittier College in Los Angeles. He was already planning to go to law school like his brother. But in the meantime, he was working summer job as a lifeguard and enjoying the break from school. Finally, the pipers twenty five year old middle son Addison known as tad had recently moved in along with his wife, Louise, whom everyone called weezer and their two young children. Tad had also studied economics and undergrad though at Williams College in Massachusetts, he followed in his brother's footsteps by going to Stanford for his MBA he promptly went into finance joining piper Jaffrey and settling into life in Minneapolis that summer tad in weezer were remodeling her childhood home. Which they'd recently bought from her parents. In the meantime, it made perfect sense to stay at tad's. Parents five bedroom house in orono. They already spent so much time there anyway for Ginny. It was a dream to be able to have her family all around her. The house was always lively and fun friends and relatives dropping by only added to the convivial atmosphere. David going away to college had been harder on Ginny than she'd intimidated while she'd always had plenty of her own activities going on having her youngest child leave the nest had prompted a lot of self reflection. Of course, her husband, Bob, you would never let on if he had felt the same crisis. But around the same time he enrolled at union feel article seminary in nearby new Brighton. He had no intention of becoming a minister, but he'd always been interested in philosophy and theology and wanted to chance to explore his interest further if Ginnie thought he was grappling with middle age and his kids growing up. She didn't let on she was relieved though that he didn't want to be a minister, she had never been religious. And this was one area where they couldn't connect. In fact, she found herself somewhat resenting, his dedication to the course, he threw himself into his studies with the same all consuming dedication that. He did all his work and interest from golf to the office to the exclusion of their family life Jimmy resented, how he prioritized his interest over her. Leaving her to manage everything else in their lives from the kids to the house to their social obligations. She tried to be a good wife, but she had a strong forceful personality in suppressing her feelings didn't come naturally when she finally tried to talk to Bobby about it. He didn't seem to understand or even want to of course, she knew he loved her. But he didn't get that. She also wanted to be able to explore her own goals and interests without having to always subsume her personality to his Jimmy reached her breaking point not long before the summer of nineteen seventy-two their son hairy later told journalist William Swanson that his mother threaten to leave his father in the heat of the moment. She went so far as to pack her bags and drive away showing Bobby just how serious she was. Ginny came back after cooling off and the two of them tried to work it out. But genie's resentment still simmered beneath the surface. Bobby tried to be more thoughtful, but he was traditional in his views of marriage expecting her to manage the bulk of family life while he was free to pursue his own work and interests. Ginny knew that he was never really going to change his stripes, and that she would never be a priority in the relationship, but that summer, bobbies classes and studying didn't bother her quite as much as usual since she had so many kids in grandkids around the house as the summer wore on Ginny settled into a nice routine. The extended family often had breakfast together. And Ginny enjoyed spending mornings playing with her two young grandsons. She worked in her garden a lot and had friends over for drinks and lunch she and her sister has dropped in on one another for catch up some coffee. She went to charity events hosted dinner parties and spent a lot of time working at the hospital. She didn't mind that Bobby had to go to New York for meetings every few weeks. In fact, she even. Chose not to go with him. Because there was so much going on in Minneapolis all in all it was a good summer. Thursday, July twenty seventh nineteen seventy-two started like any other Thursday after Bobby left for work Janin's two cleaning. Ladies Bernice Bechtold in Vernet Zimmerman arrive for their weekly. Visit Janie went to her hair and nails appointment in the nearby town of wise deta, then returned home for her standard peanut butter sandwich lunch. She had a board meeting later in the day at northwestern hospital. But until then her plan was to work in her beloved garden. It was a warn- languid summer afternoon. And the glamorous twin cities socialite was relaxed as she plucked dead flowers out of her garden, which made it all the more startling when shortly after one o'clock Bernice hurried out the back door flustered an upset. Ginny had no idea what was going on. But Bernice 's demeanor scared her. Her had something happened to one of her kids or grandkids. She hurried inside as soon as she stepped inside. She saw two large heavy set. Men identically dressed in dark clothes their heads covered with strange black and red masks, and they each carried two guns. One of them had a gun trained on Vernet the other cleaning lady and the other walked towards Ginny guns out. He ordered her to get Bernice back inside Janine kept her cool calling out the door to Bernice telling her it was okay. But when Bernice came back inside the men sat her in Vernet on dining room chairs in tape them down with clear packing tape. Ginny watched helplessly, then the men turned to her. They demanded to know if she was MRs piper, which she confirmed one of them asked. Where's your old, man? She told them he was. At the office. Ginny wasn't sure why they'd expect Bobby to be home some Thursday afternoons he'd go to New York for meetings or to the United theological seminary for his theology classes, but he was always out and about town bobby's absence seem to upset the men one of them rant at his frustration. Blaming the mistake on someone called chino, then they turn back to Ginny. And demanded to know where the safe was the pipers didn't have a safe. But Ginny worried that the invaders would be even angrier at that information told them she had a few pieces of jewelry upstairs that they could have the masked men weren't interested. Instead, they told her no MRs piper, you're going with us they handcuffed her and marched out the front door the barrel of a gun pressing into her back as they passed her purse. The man pushing her forward rifled through and took the six dollar bills in her wallet. The other man placed a white envelope. Labeled family atop the desk next to the living room door as they left the house. They told Bernice in Vernet to stay where they were in not to call. Anyone the men marched Ginny across the driveway to a green two door car? It took them a minute to figure out how to flip the passenger seat forward to allow Ginny to climb in the back seat before they drove off one of the men gave Ginny a pillowcase one of her own pillow cases are stomach turned as she realized that before making themselves known they'd gone into her bedroom. The man told her to put the pillowcase over her head and to lie down on the back seat. She didn't dare disobey him. According to a hostage negotiation specialist at UK firm, a FINA intelligence. This is the right approach to being kidnapped. They explain that a hostage is best chance of survival is to be passive and compliant, though, not submissive are weak Jenny's innate skills as a people person helped to recognize from the beginning that she shouldn't antagonize her kidnappers less. She anger them or give them a reason to hurt. Her Jimmy felt the car pull away from the house turn right at the end of the long driveway. And they were off she tried to follow the turns and keep track of where they were going or what roads they were on based on the car speed. But she quickly lost track of where they were the men barely spoke. Instead listening to what she assumed was a police radio, which she could barely hear what the men did say referred to police cars and road. Blocks when one of them started smoking Ginny realized how many hours it had been since her last cigarette and wish she could ask for one. Finally, the car picked up speed. And Ginny realized they were on a highway though, she had no idea what direction they were going, nor did she have any idea. How long it had been since they left the house all she could do was assume that Bernice and Vernet had managed to raise the alarm and hope that Bobby and the rest of her family had started looking for her. She just hoped she wasn't too lost to be found. Next will follow the first few hours of genie's captivity. Now back to the story. On July twenty seventh nineteen seventy seventy-two forty nine year old for junior piper's life changed in an instant one moment. The Minneapolis socialite had been gardening. The next she'd been marched out of her house at gunpoint. And now she was lying in the back seat of a car a pillowcase over her head has her kidnappers drove her somewhere, she hoped desperately that the two cleaning ladies the kidnappers had tied up in her house had managed to raise the alarm almost as soon as they heard the kidnappers car. Pull away Bernice Inver Neta started trying to escape the men hadn't taped them up. Very well and Bernice was able to pull her arms free and help Veneta do the same terrified that perhaps the men's accomplices were monitoring the phones or the house. The two women jumped into Vernet car to go for help the drove Jew. Genie's sister's house, which wasn't far away. The two women also cleaned house once a week four Jenny sister shy Morrison. So they knew and trusted. Her was the one who raised the alarm, I she called the Hennepin county sheriff and the whys at police then she called Bobby at his office as soon as he had all the details. He called the local F B I office, and then headed home to meet them and the police the FBI's jurisdiction in this case was technically questionable kidnapping only becomes a federal crime. If the hostages taken across state lines, however with the large number of kidnappings that had been happening in recent years, the FBI had become the defacto authority on handling kidnappings and their experience suggested that kidnappers often do take their hostages to other states, plus kidnappings require a rapid response for the best chance of finding the victim wasting time deciding jurisdiction. Would be a no one's best interest which meant that the FBI essentially ran cases from the beginning. After notifying the FBI, Bobby headed straight home to join the law enforcement officials and get straight to work the police set up a perimeter around the pipers property as well as checkpoints throughout the area. When Bobby arrived home at around one forty five pm, they finally found the white envelope. The kidnappers left with the ransom note inside. In the meantime, it took a while to track down the pipers three sons tad was at work at piper Jaffrey, though, he actually learned of his mother's of duck shin from his father secretary he was immediately concerned about his wife weezer and their two small children. Who would normally have been at his parents house that day by chance weezer taken the kids over to their new house to check up on the remodeling, thus missing the kidnapping entirely the youngest piper son, David had spent the morning working as a lifeguard after that he? I went to the DMV to get a motorcycle learner's permit. He only learned of his mother's abduction around three PM while he was driving home when a radio station broadcast in a -mergency bulletin reality sank in as he pulled into the driveway and saw all the cop cars, the oldest son. Harry was on a fly fishing trip in Montana. No one had any way of reaching him his wife and their son huddled with the rest of the extended family and hoped that he was okay. The ransom note was typed on a sheet of notebook paper, a surprisingly long, and detailed all caps missive that the F B I felt indicated a high degree of competence and planning on the part of the kidnappers. It started by stating that the ransom amount was one million dollars adjusted for inflation. That would be over six million dollars today. According to the FBI agents, this was the largest ransom demand ever. Made in the US up to this point the note went on to specify that the ransom money must consist entirely of USD twenty dollar bills divided into four separately wrapped packages of two hundred fifty thousand dollars each those four packages were to be put into a large draw string canvas or duck bag in a Brown or all of color and the note stressed the money and beg would be checked for tracking devices markings radio-activity and any other possible ways for the authorities to locate or trick ransom IRS if anything was found the hostage would not be returned. The money would have to be delivered tomorrow night by someone closely associated with the piper Jaffray firm that kidnapper would verify his or her relationship with the company before accepting the money, the note continued with a series of very detailed instructions as to how the delivery. Must take place including that, the delivers car must be registered to their home address that the money must be in the car's trunk that the car must have a full tank of gas, and that the deliverer must carry at least two hundred dollars on him as well as at least five times all of this would have to be prepared by nine thirty PM tomorrow night. When instructions for the delivery would arrive at the pipers house after that the person making the delivery would need to set out. Immediately kidnappers warned that police radio frequencies would be monitored. And if they suspected any foul play, they wouldn't complete the handover. In fact, if anything throughout the intricate delivery process deviated from their instructions, not only what the handoff not be completed. But the kidnappers would not be in touch again should the delivery be completed as described the purse. In making the delivery would be safe. If all went according to plan, they promised the safe release of the prisoner. It's six AM the following morning. Both Bobby and the FBI agents recognize the sophistication of the instructions in the note. Clearly, the kidnappers were familiar with the firm of piper Jaffrey and had specifically targeted the family. They may have originally hoped to kidnap, Bobby. But the lack of names in the note suggested they were prepared for an alternate hostage. If need be the FBI agents on the scene were concerned, they felt sure they were dealing with professionals hardened criminals, whom they needed to catch and stop less. They strike again. Despite being a pretty stoic, man. Bobby was scared. He didn't have a million dollars despite his job in finance the pipers weren't especially wealthy. And though he tried not to show it the clinical precision of the kidnapper. Demands sent a chill down his spine. But there was no way he was going to let them kill Ginny. So he decided right. Then that he would figure out a way to follow the instructions to the letter if that's what it took to get his wife back the FBI agents tried to explain to him that catching the kidnappers was just as important as rescuing Ginny. But Bobby wouldn't hear it? He wouldn't do anything to jeopardize Ginny safety, even if that meant losing money, he didn't even have and letting the kidnappers go free this frustrated the FBI agents who wanted to send their own men to do the drop off or at least lay a trap for whoever picked up the money. But they knew that if they pushed Bobby too hard. It could backfire their jurisdiction over the case was tenuous with no one actually knowing if the kidnapping was a federal crime, and they didn't want to risk getting pushed off it. The agents decided to choose their. Battles. Meanwhile, Ginny and her kidnappers continued their drive lying handcuffed in the back seat pillowcase over her head. She had no idea where they were or how long they'd been driving. She was getting stiff and asked for permission to roll over which one of the men agreed to if only she could ask for a cigarette to after a while one of the men told her to sit up they had to make a tape recording for her husband explained telling her what to say he made a repeat it back to him before sticking a small microphone under the pillow case for her to speak into she told Bobby that she was fine. And that the men were taking good care of her and that he needed to follow their instructions, and then she laid out the specific instructions the man had given her for what Bobby should do tomorrow when he heard the recording. She repeated them once again for good measure when she finished the men told her to lie. Back down and the drive continued Jenny didn't really know what to do. There was no way she could escape the best. She could hope for was that. If she followed their instructions, she'd be okay, and hopefully, Bobby would follow whatever ransom instructions they left. She also hoped that the ransom wasn't too big thinking of their savings account. She figured Bobby wouldn't be able to find more than fifty thousand dollars or so, of course, Ginny had no idea just how much more than that. They'd asked for she wasn't really afraid though, the men hadn't heard her at all and hadn't seen cruel. But then after what felt like ours the car slowed and turned off the road it stopped in the wheels seem to spin as if the car was stuck possibly in mud. Genie's head raised with possibilities of where they might be a farm or the middle of nowhere somewhere. No one would hear her scream. That's for sure. The men pulled her out of the back seat by her arms. The pillowcase still over her head. She stepped into wet grass that went up past her ankles, it was raining lightly. Ginny started to shiver one of the men led her forward up a hill through the wet grass. She slipped in what felt like mud her garden. Sandals. Unable to get traction as night fell the light leaking through her pillowcase seem to fade and she felt far colder than she had before. Ginny had lost all sense of time. How long it had been since the gunman showed up at our house to the drive around in circles or were they hundreds of miles from Minneapolis. Even now the walk seem to stretch on though, she felt they couldn't actually be going that far where were these men taking are to their boss some criminal mastermind to a hideout to her death wordlessly? She trudged onwards tepidly truck. Getting the man leading her. Although to what ends she did not know. Next week on hostage will follow Ginny. As she awaits her fate trapped in the wilds of Minnesota with one of her kidnappers will also track the lengths to which Bobby went in order to satisfy the kidnappers demands. And we'll take a quick look at how the kidnappers somehow managed to get away with the kidnapping. You can listen to hostage and all of par casts. Other podcast on apple podcasts. Spotify Stitcher, Google play cast box tune in or your favorite podcast directory ruby back next week. In the meantime, don't take your freedom for granted. Hostage was created. By max Cutler is a production of Cutler media, and is part of the par cast network. It is produced by Maxon Ron Cutler sound design by Kerry Murphy with production assistance by Ron Shapiro and Paul Moller additional production assistance by Maggie admire in carlee Madden. Hostages written by Kate doormen in stars Irma Blanco and Carter, ROY. Don't forget to listen to my news show survival. It looks through the eyes of the world's most resilient survivors as their self preservation instincts are pushed to the limit shirt a search for and subscribe to survival wherever you listen to podcasts, and please don't forget to rate and review.

Ginny piper Bobby Bobby Bobby Ginny piper Minneapolis FBI kidnapping piper Jaffray Minnesota Jimmy Jenny Harry tad David I orono piper Jaffrey Vernet Virginia Bernice Virginia piper US
Wall Street Breakfast November 1: Jobs Day

Wall Street Breakfast

06:47 min | 1 year ago

Wall Street Breakfast November 1: Jobs Day

"Welcome to seeking Alpha's Wall Street breakfast your daily source of market news and analysis subscribe you're in Market News and analysis I'm Rena Shirbow in for Steve Brown and green and five G. Goes Online and China leading today's news October down from one hundred thirty six thousand in September with the unemployment rate taking show a contraction for the third month in a row factory activity has been at the heart of recent stocks across the globe are back in the Green as a surprise bounce in Chinese manufacturing it came in at fifty one point seven for Tober the fastest expansion in more than two I have pulled ahead by point three percent the e cigarette industry's fortune have sales while marketing campaigns across the nation will be brought to a halt once seen we are moving ahead with the US Mexico Canada Trade Agreement Making Progress Mexico has already ratified the trade pact but Canada has not Christine Lagarde Day begins her new GIG atop the European Central Bank today at a time when persistently Mario Draghi drove interest rates deep into negative territory and pump trillions of euros who back this policy and those are losing faith in further easing doing trade war with the US that has turned into a battle over tech supremacy innovation networks China Telecom China Unicom and China Mobile Shen including price and a lack of five G. capable handsets Dylan Chevron Exxon has been in a series of lower lows and lower highs for quite some time chevrondelo ignition at Piper Jaffrey the two stocks have come under pressure this week as the rest of nine thousand barrels of oil have spilled from TC energy's keystone crude pipeline in north of oil pipeline development TC energy has faced many regulatory and environmental wrote down its investment in jewel by more than a third Thursday recording a four and a half billion pretax risk from the market as well as e cigarette by cities and states around the US altria headlines to watch for on seeking Alpha US oil production shatters monthly record the shake-up continues at Nissan Motor Samarco set for restart after look for non-farm payrolls at eight thirty that concludes today's Wall Street breakfast. Hod Cast soundcloud spotify stitcher. You can sign up for other podcasts behind.

US Market News China Telecom China Unicom TC energy China Mexico Christine Lagarde Dylan Chevron Exxon China Mobile Shen Piper Jaffrey Mario Draghi Nissan Motor Samarco Rena Shirbow Canada Steve Brown Tober European Central Bank
Mac OS Ken: 05.02.2019

Mac OS Ken

16:18 min | 2 years ago

Mac OS Ken: 05.02.2019

"Yeah. This is MAC OS, Ken. Wall Street reacts apple earnings Aref idea of what apple paid Qualcomm and saying goodbye to a couple of apple products. It's Thursday the second of may twenty nineteen. I'm Ken Ray. And this is news from mecca west Ken brought to you by yours truly and sponsored by Mao aware bites. Visit malware bytes dot com slash moc for your free. Download and fourteen day trial. This show is also sponsored by express VPN giving you back your internet privacy. I hope you use a VPN when you use your MAC or I o s Tobias on public wifi. If you don't please try express EP n without a VPN any number of interested third. Parties could be tracking what you're doing online. Maybe even intercepting sensitive data, a good VPN can keep that info. Safe and express VPN is a good VPN express PPO and has easy to use upset. Run seamlessly in the background of your computer, your phone, your tablet, and yet it doesn't let security slow you down. I've used in the past that slowed online activity to a crawl express VPN is surprisingly speedy. Protecting yourself with express VPN cost less than seven bucks a month. It's rated the number one service by tech radar and it comes with a thirty day money back guarantee. Protect your online activity today and find out how you can get three months free at express p dot com slash MAC. OS can E X P R E S S V P, and that's Xpress. BBN dot com slash Moco. West Ken for three months free with a one year package. Visit express VPN dot com slash MAC. West Ken and the big thanks to express VPN for sponsoring this week show. What a weird day for apple shares or maybe not under. No yesterday. I told you that shares jumped ten dollars and nine cents an extended hours trading on Tuesday that would put their starting price at two hundred ten dollars and seventy six cents on Wednesday, except that's not exactly how that's tracked for some reason. This might the rise on Tuesday. After Apple's earnings report. Apple's official opening starting price on Wednesday was two hundred dollars and sixty seven cents with an immediate ten dollars nine cents jump. So officially apple shares closed Wednesday up nine dollars ninety five cents and the day at two hundred ten dollars and fifty two cents in my head. That basically means up was unchanged off fifteen cents from Tuesday's extended hours lift, but checking the New York Times the Wall Street Journal. Title barons and investor's business daily. They all agree. How I think things should work. Doesn't matter. For what it's worth those publications. Probably don't care how financial analysts think things should work either. But people do pay attention to them, apple and cider rounded up a few reactions to apple second quarter fiscal year. Twenty nineteen earnings report Cowen and company likes this services story likes. The fact that iphone is not in a free fall. And appreciates the fact that apple could have made more money on max if it had had enough processors to go into them seriously, though, the firm really likes the services story Cowan use Wednesday's no to reiterate its overperform rating on apple shares. It also raised its price target on the shares from two hundred twenty dollars to forty five Rosenblatt security says Tuesday's results were not a surprise. That firm. Still worried about earnings for the second half of the year Rosenblatt has a neutral rating on apple shares and they seriously underwater price target of one hundred. Fifty bucks. JP Morgan heard the high confidence expressed by Apple's management. The firm's got an overweight rating on apple shares a price target of two hundred thirty five dollars MacQuarie said things like solid quarter and noted better than expected revenue for iphone and guidance that was better than veered still apple insider says the growth of services is slowing faster than the company expected with concerns around core drivers like the app store licensing, apple care and others. Still remaining the rose margin is also weaker than MacQuarie wanted to see with the ramping up of investments ahead of it services launch also being a potential issue for its finances. Still if I phone and China concerns dissipate mcquarry thinks the stock will react, positively. They're also looking for a sort of super subscription combo similar to Amazon prime for now though there. Kind of waiting. See the firm's got a neutral rating on apple shares their price target of one hundred ninety bucks business insider had news of notes one from Goldman Sachs one from piper Jaffrey and one from Wells Fargo. Goldman Sachs heard what apple management said they expect growth this quarter from everything except iphone according to the firm based on management's commentary on non iphone seasonally headed into the June quarter, and the actual reported segment level revenues. We believe the two percent bead versus our estimate is primarily due to ipads, max, watches and other non iphone items while the iphone performance remains largely in line. With our previous estimate. We believe the new ipad mini air updates max and air pods should be particularly strong in the third fiscal quarter to June, Goldman Sachs. Has a neutral rating on apple shares and the price target of one hundred eighty two dollars as for the other two business insider has piper Jaffray expecting limited excitement around the iphones. Apple will launch this fall, while Wells Fargo worries that untypical of five G I phone and twenty twenty could impact up grades one of the loudest megaphones and bells and buzzers and other sound effects and financial talk also weighed in on apple on Wednesday. CNBC had Jim Cramer hitting the networks squawk on the street. Singing a song of stickiness nothing. King gay. Quoting Kramer, a lot of people gave up the stock because they just Butte as a handset company. Obviously what's happened is in the last eighteen months is it's becoming much more of a subscription stock one to get a person in the apple ecosystem that person just spends spends spans apple has been trying to position itself as a services play and Kramer is into it the way he sees it people are now looking at the company as much more of a service stream because by twenty twenty we will see a subscription growth of say five hundred million people. Well, apple started and ended the day relatively unchanged. It did see a bit of movement throughout the day cult amok says were at least a time that movement put apple back in a market cap of over one trillion dollars early in the morning, the sight Rhode apple is currently trading at two hundred thirteen dollars and twenty cents giving a market cap of over one trillion one imagine it'll be flirting hard with that market cap for the next little while. Apple's not the only company with quarterly earnings this week and Apple's not the only company with quarterly earnings related to apple apple insider says Qualcomm 's out with its quarterly numbers. According to the report the settlement deal between apple and Qualcomm previously secret on that the chip maker between four point five and four point seven billion dollars. According to regulatory filings issued on Wednesday. It looks like apple and one assumes other companies have killed or at least blocked or right to repair Bill and California another piece from apple insiders as California state assembly members, Susan talamante zag men, pull the Bill from consideration that she introduced in March. The report says the withdrawal came following pressure from lobbyists, including a last minute play by apple a piece from the verge identified. An apple rep who'd met recently. With California's privacy and consumer protection committee and an attempt to block the Bill shortly thereafter Agnew announce the bills withdrawal saying in the statement, while this was not an easy decision that became clear that the Bill would not have the support it needed today and manufacturers had sewn enough doubt with vague unbagged claims of privacy and security concerns. While done for now, the measure is apparently not done done, not dead. But mostly that as miracle. Max might say the peace as the withdrawal gives tech companies opposing the legislation a one year reprieve. More news in a moment. But first of word from malware bytes, targeting the threats targeting your MAC, if you're not running malware protection on your MAC, why you wear a seatbelt, even though you're not usually in a car wreck. You lock your front door, even though people don't usually try to break in you may get lucky never encounter, malware. But the really want to rely on luck. Good security software, just make sense software. Like, malware, bytes Melwert bites detects and removes viruses ad where and other malware automatically. So you're protected without even having to think about it. Think about a free trial though. Visit malware bytes dot com slash moc for your free. Download and fourteen day trial of their premium offering stay protected with mal wear bites. Visit malware bytes dot com slash moc for your free. Download and fourteen day trial their premium offering and the big thanks to where bites for sponsoring this week show. As it leans harder into services. Here's something apple probably doesn't wanna hear cult. Amac has the brand consultancy MB L M looking at brand intimacy for absence social media last year, apple music was tops in that category. This year. It's number five perhaps worse than the slip though is who's in second and third. Those would be Spotify and pen Dora respectively. Running down the top ten apps and social media Pinterest is number one Spotify. Second Pandora's third. Instagram's fourth apple music comes in at number five Facebook as sixth snap and seventh Guber eighth. Airbnb is ninth. And then MO round out the top ten commenting on the slip. Mario nutter Ellie managing partner at MB. L M told cult amac notwithstanding apple strong business performance. I think both the parent brand and its products and sub brands like apple music, maybe suffering from similar challenges overall brand and gadget fatigue and lack of excitement or relevance with jen's e. Sort of seeming to counter that assertion MB LM's overall brand intimacy list running down that top ten Disney's burst. Apple is second. Amazon third Chevrolets fourth net. Flicks fifth Harley Davidson six PlayStation is haven't YouTube is eight Ford is ninth and Chick-fil-A rounds out that top ten. Apple's next flagship stores opening berry soon and gadget says the Cupertino companies retail location inside the historic Carnegie library in Washington DC is set to open on Saturday the eleventh of may and finally today apple sending a couple of faithful old products to go live on a farm where they can run and play with other deprecated or vintage products to their hearts content starting on the software side tech crunch says apertures set to officially bite the dust calling it a great application for editing photos back in the day. The piece points out that aperture hasn't been supported for years. But it does still run on the latest max once we leave Mojave, though, the aperture will close for good. Tech crunch has apple explaining on a support page burst. Cited by macrumors that protect Nicole reasons. Aperture will not run and future versions of MAC OS after MAC OS Mojave on the hardware side. It's apparently time to say goodbye to pad to macrumors says that's landed on the Cupertino companies vintage an obsolete products list. According to the report apple defines, vintage products as those that have not been manufactured for more than five but less than seven years devices on the list are no longer eligible for service at a genius bar or apple authorized service providers. No longer that is unless you live in Turkey or California local laws in those places require apple to keep servicing ipad to until March of twenty twenty one ten years after the tablets release at that point ipad to will. The move from vintage to obselete worldwide. Macos cotton. Brought to you by me and sponsored by express VPN. Take back your internet privacy today and find out how you can get three months free at express BPM dot com slash MAC. OS? Can this show is also sponsored by malware bytes? Visit malware bytes dot com slash moc for your free. Download and fourteen day trial advertising handled by backbeat media online at backbeat media dot com. You can reach me a couple of ways in fo at McCoy west Ken dot com or call seven one six seven eight zero four zero eight zero. We will talk again tomorrow until then that is news from co Wes, Ken. I'm Ken Ray. Chow?

apple Ken Ray West Ken twenty twenty Amazon Qualcomm California Goldman Sachs Tobias Aperture Cupertino Mao JP Morgan China CNBC Aref Rosenblatt
Mac OS Ken: 10.23.2018

Mac OS Ken

13:24 min | 2 years ago

Mac OS Ken: 10.23.2018

"Yeah. This is MAC OS Ken. Analysts is up phone. Ten are bears will be bears. Then gas buddy turns less than friendly. It's Tuesday, the twenty third about Tober twenty eighteen. I'm Camry. And this is news from Moco west. Ken brought to you by yours, truly and sponsored by molecule, the air purifier that actually destroys air pollutants use offer code Moco west Cam for seventy five dollars off. Your first order at m. o. l. e. k. u. l. e. molecule dot com. This show is also supported by people like you patrons through. Patriot find out more in that your support that patron dot com slash MAC OS cat. Last week, DM securities analysts Mingji quo predicted that orders for iphone ten are would be stronger than orders last year for iphone eight this week. He says, last week's prediction was correct nine to five. MAC had young m. c. issuing note on Monday after a weekend of watching the pieces quo says the demand so far has been greater than what apple saw with the iphone eight, eight plus last year. Even though there's launched availability for the ten are from apple and just one to two week, wait times for most carriers and other retailers. Well, there was launch day availability when he wrote his note though, that's gone away more on that in a moment. Another piece on the note from apple and cider has the analyst saying the iphone ten are will not only boast iphone sales for the holidays, but keep sales up into the first quarter of calendar year twenty nineteen, which is next quarter which is likely to start me hyperventilating quoting his note, although the demands of iphone ten, our is lower than ten s after the initial preorder in sale. The overall ten, our ship momentum is more stable because of ten hours better replacement demand than that of iphone eight series. Last year also seems to have wanted to allay fears that the availability of phones for launch day meant nobody wanted to buy phone. Ten are the way he sees it iphone ten, our buyers or a bit more casual than I phone. Ten s buyers. Tennis buyers or sort of super fans. While ten are buyers or general users who are used to operating s in his estimated the more casual iphone user buys from carriers, not directly from apple as such. Apple watcher shouldn't worry that there are still phones available for launch day or again, there were when he penned his note round midnight on the east coast macrumors ran a piece that launch day delivery for iphone ten are in the US and several other countries was a thing of the past according to Monday night's report all colors and capacities for all carriers or listing delivery. Date of one to two weeks with new orders made today set to arrive from the fifth of November to the twelfth of November scheduled in store pickup was also done for phone. Ten are the side guesses that apple is holding onto any remaining units for walk in purchases online. Launch day teen to buy phones at new record. So says by Jaffrey PJ analysts, Michael Olsen and young Kim have continued their firms tradition of bugging kids about what they plan to do with their lives. According to people insider eighty six percent of the quiz. Kids say they plan to get an iphone amazingly. That doesn't leave fourteen percent for Android, it leaves ten percent, which makes me wonder what the other four percent are planning to get the peace doesn't tie the intent to buy the apples recently, announced devices, savor a blip in spring of twenty fifteen says the peas apples draw of the teen market. Both an ownership and intent to own has steadily risen over the past five years. Last year, for example, eighty two percent of teens plan to own an iphone of figure that was at the time, a new height for the brand. Overall wrote the Anna. A-List. We've you the survey data as a sign that Apple's place as the dominant device brand among teens remains intact piper Jaffrey as a twelve month price target on apple shares of two hundred fifty dollars. While most analysts seem tickled pink with apple, an iphone right now bears will be bears. Another piece from apple insider has Rosenblatt securities analyst, June Jiang, staying weird. A lot of his pessimism seems to have been based on relatively ready availability of iphone ten are for launch day delivery. Of course. We know now that that the liberals dried up. Additionally, though the peace says, he wrote his note after one day of preorder 's which means he's been his weekend having no fun unless trying to make it rain on Apple's parade is his idea of fun. None of that weird. By the way, as I said before bears will be bears the part that is Jiang staying weird his by rating on apple shares at his price target of two hundred dollars. Apple cross two hundred dollars at the beginning of August. It's currently sitting at two hundred twenty dollars and change going against the grain on Monday was Bernstein research analyst, Tony Saginaw gay. While most of his apple analyzing compatriots were writing about iphone. The sack nature was writing about apple services. Specifically, search ads found in Iowa's. CNBC has the analysts saying he thinks those alone could generate revenue of two billion dollars annually for apple by twenty twenty four times the five hundred million. He thinks generate this year two ways. He thinks apple could achieve that more locations and more ads after he appeared. On CNBC's halftime report. The site said, he's said that apple search ads or not yet offered in China, representing a huge opportunity for growth. Unlike search ads on Google and Amazon apples or currently limited to one add on the first page of results, leaving it more room to include more ads in the future. More news in a moment, but first word from molecule, the air purifier that actually destroys air pollutants, the doctor who developed the technology molecule, did it out of frustration, his son suffered from asthma and the air purifiers available to offered no relief for his son symptoms that led to twenty years developing a new and affective way of removing indoor air pollutants multinational, air purifiers trap larger pollutants and filters molecule destroys pollutants that are as much as one thousand times smaller than those caught by traditional solutions. I told you yesterday about one friend who was breathing easier an hour after he turned on his molecule and another molecule customer who says she was able to breathe through her nose for the first time in fifteen years. Once she gave molecule, try if allergies or. As MMA are problematic for you or someone you love. You should give molecule a look. Learn more at molecule dot com. That's m. o. l. e. k. u. l. e. dot com. Read more about the science behind it. Take a look at the device itself. Then when you're ready to breathe easier, use offer code Moco west Ken for seventy five dollars off. Your first order visit m. o. l. e. k. u. l. e. dot com. And our offer code o. west kinda checkout and save seventy five dollars on your first order. Molecule, the air purifier that destroys pollutants and a big thanks to molecule for sponsoring this week show. The gas buddy app seems to have turned unfriendly for some over the weekend. Macrumors ran a piece on Monday saying, apple has identified an issue with the gas by the app that may result in some iphone eight. I've eight plus I've owned tan iphone ten as an iphone tennis max devices becoming unresponsive according to an internal announcement shared with apple stores today. That of course means yesterday because that was then this is now or something. It's unclear how many people were affected. Also unclear what caused it, whatever it was. Gas buddy has issued a replacement up. Of course, if you're stuck in the re spring loop, you'll need out of that for you can update the probably guests how to do that according to the report of a customer reports. The issue at Napoli store. Apple has instructed its genius bar employees to force restart. The iphone and then ask the customer to uninstall the gas by the app affected user should then be able to reinstall the app with no worries. Monday night macrumors ran update saying, gas buddy has returned to the app store with an update that resolves issue that was causing some devices to crash. If you're looking for Tim cook, you'll wanna head to Europe. Macrumors says, that's where you'll find up will c. e. o. ahead of his speech at a privacy conference in Brussels, this week, cook as in Europe, visiting app developers and filmmakers who work with the iphone according to the peace, and he's boasting at least some designed titties on Twitter at Tim, underscore cook. If you wanna keep up and follow along. The CEO of AWS is joining Tim cook, not in Europe, but in calling for Bloomberg to take back its supply chain server hacking story. I told you yesterday of Cook's assertion that Bloomberg BusinessWeek should retract what it had written now, Amazon web services, CEO Andy Jesse is saying, yeah, but with more words in a message on Twitter, Jessie said, Tim cook is right. Bloomberg story is wrong about Amazon too. They offered no proof story kept changing and showed no interest in our answers unless we validate their theories reporters got played or took liberties. Bloomberg should retract. And finally today Apple's got something big going on and millipedes us or something for which the gummy needs a big space. The MAC observer says, the Cupertino company has signed a ten year lease on three hundred thirteen thousand nine hundred seventy eight square feet of industrial manufacturing space and mill pitas California TM mo- seems to think apple will use the space for itself driving car initiative, though decided knowledge is it could be used for manufacturing research and development or warehousing needs. MAC OS can brought to you by me and sponsored by molecule there. Purifier that actually destroys air pollutants use offer code Moco, Wisconsin for seventy five dollars off. Your first order at m. o. l. e. k. u. l. e. molecule dot com. This show is also supported by people like you patrons through patriarch, find out more and that your support that patriot dot com. Slash MAC OS can advertising handled by backbeat media online backbeat media dot com. You can reach me a couple of ways info at Muko wiscon- dot com or call seven one six seven eight zero four zero eight zero. We will talk again tomorrow until then that is news from go west. Ken. I'm Ken Ray. Chow.

apple apple analyst m. o. l. e. k. u. l. Ken Ray Tim cook Moco west Macrumors Europe Tober Amazon Bloomberg Tennis Cupertino Wisconsin CNBC Michael Olsen
Mac OS Ken: 09.26.2019

Mac OS Ken

13:18 min | 1 year ago

Mac OS Ken: 09.26.2019

"It is Mac. Os analysts on iphones today's and tomorrow's an annoying message from apple and the plucky. I iphone in the world. It's Thursday the twenty sixth of September Twenty nineteen. I'm Ken Ray and this is is news from Mac. Os Ken brought to you by yours truly and sponsored by fixit save ten dollars on your next fifty dollar fix wchs at I fix at dot com slash. Moco West can this show is also supported by people like you patrons through through Patriots on find out more in that your support at Patriot one dot com slash Mac. Os Cab remember when Wall Street thought apple should make a low cost iphone to grab market share guessed what Wall Street is worried about now. Bloomberg has word of note from Deutsche Bank that firms concern that average selling prices for iphone or headed for precipitous dip analyst Jill real long things. ASP's will fall between four percent and six percent in fiscal year twenty twenty that drop will be driven by two factors actors and estimate the lower cost of iphone eleven at six hundred ninety nine dollars versus last year's iphone ten our price up seven hundred forty nine and the even lower cost of iphone eight and iphone eight plus both of which are still out there according to the report on noted that cheaper prices could yield higher unit sales although we do not yet have a strong enough sense of how pricing in conjunction with the new feature sets of the new. IPHONES will impact overall unit demand. Even if there isn't uptaking units sold. He's worried it won't be big enough to offset the Kleinen. ASP's ASP's Ong's not alone in his worries over iphone average selling prices Bloomberg points to notes earlier this week from both Piper Jaffrey and Rosenblatt securities that expressed similar concerns of course Rosenblatts June Jiang seems to have a wheel of concerns around iphone spin it see where it stops and write it up as a worry. I'm sure that's not what he does. Just how it reads jumping back to Deutsche Bank Bloomberg's as the firm has a whole grading on apple shares. Mr Price target on the shares is two hundred ten bucks while some analysts worry over this year's iphones. Others can't contain their excitement over phones. We won't see for at least another year. Apple insider had Kyle mcneely the new guy following Apple Jeffries issuing a note earlier this week saying people just don't get how big the iphone five G. will be not physically of course rather he and his the street underestimates the benefit apple gets a heading into the five G. Cycle in a year he rented the benefits of a five G. iphone with the zeal of the recently recently converted Jeffries has a positive rating on Apple Shares McNealy said the twelve month price target on the shares of two hundred sixty dollars one of the highest targets among apple analysts according to the report a new move from Apple. That's sure to rile the right to repair side ride. macrumors has word of a new apple support document that says apple will let people know if their screens ever replaced with displays from a company besides apple according to macrumors report. Apple's iphone eleven iphone eleven pro and iphone eleven pro Max will offer up a new warning warning if a repair technician ever uses a non genuine apple display when repairing a broken device unable to verify this iphone. The phone has a genuine apple display will show up in the general about section of the settings APP. If we're a pair shop uses an unverified display component as nagging goes. It seems like this could be worse while the notification will show up on the lock screen. It'll only be there for the first four days. After the repair meanwhile notification in these settings apple hang around for fifteen days after that it will be limited to general about about in the settings zap well. It'll also go down in your permanent record. According to the report and additional notification may also be displayed letting users know that apple has updated the device information but the iphone in question the notification means that apple has updated the device INFO maintained contain for the IPHONE for service needs safety analysis and to improve future products apple's doc also warns of the dangers injures of getting a repair from a non certified technician using a non genuine repair part macrumors has apple arguing that part's not provided by apple could good result in degraded multi touch performance broken true tone functionality unintentional battery drain incorrect color correction non uniform brightness and more or you know less the good news apple's move one affect device performance apple says that the warning is informational only and will not affect the ability to use your iphone or your display according to the report I fix it has had a look inside the latest apple. Watch apple insider says the company noted for taking things apart and putting them back together has had a go at Apple Watch series five. The most notable feature appears to be a slightly larger battery though I fix it says longer longer battery life on the chronometer has less to do with the battery than it does with this year's display technology. There's also a new layout and new connectors. Here's which means parts for the series five are not swap -able with parts per earlier generations of Apple. Watch as for reparability. It's a little bit better than middle of the Road Apple. Watch series five scores a six out of ten with ten being the easiest fix and here I offer the same disclaimer. I offered earlier this week while I fix it is sponsoring this week's Mac. Os Ken. I'm not talking about the apple. Watch tear down because they're a sponsor the tear downs or things that I've told you about for years and will keep telling you about regardless of their sponsorship status us and now a word from our sponsor more news in a moment but first a word from I fix thickset making it easy to repair your apple products yourself is the battery in your Mac running down fix it with. I fix it if you're tired of dealing with the ball and chain charger on your Mac switched the battery out yourself. I fix it can show you how to swap the battery we out on any. Mac Book even retina models and supply the parts and tools to do it. If you've got a cracked screen or a bad battery in your iphone phone or even your Apple Watch. I think that makes that easy to repair yourself what they're all in one six kids and step by step guides again. Dan supplying the parts and tools. You need to make it go as small as an apple. Watch or as big as a Mac book. You can thickset set I fix it can help and right now. The whole thing can happen for less visit fix dot com slash Mac. Os can look for the code at the top of the page and save ten dollars off your next fifty dollars fix. Give your old stuff new life with I fix it visit. I fix dot com slash Mac. Os Ken look for the code at the top of the page and save ten dollars off your next. I fifty dollar fix. That's ten dollars off your next fix kit of fifty dollars or more at affects dot com slash Mac. Os Ken and and the big thanks to affect said first sponsoring this week show another software where update from Apple Cultivar has apple on Wednesday updated its apple music for ANDROID APP too big features for the update. I the peace as apple music subscribers get chrome cast support that let them more easily stream audio from the APP to their TV's connected speakers and other devices the second big feature dark mode because everything gets dark mode. Would the update is free. It's available now in the Google play store and finally today. I broken the screens onto iphones in my twelve plus years of owning them both times. They dropped from a height of about three feet. Give or take a few inches us so it is with clenched jaw that I say I am happy for the guy who dropped his phone from a plane than founded in working and condition over a year later. I'm not really jealous. It's actually an amazing story. According to a piece from I'm more photographer hawkers talkers noticing was flying over South Iceland. He stuck his iphone six. s out of this small plane's cockpit to grab some video of a flood below. Oh when he lost his grip on the communicator dropping it to the ground below that should be where the story ends but it's not not less than two weeks ago over a year after the IPHONE was dropped. Snorrasson says a couple of Icelandic people were walking in the area area and saw the phone just lying there. They contacted the landowners and realized it was my phone when they connected it to the computer and it said how occurs phone yeah. It's still works mostly. The peace has snorrasson saying I can still go on the Internet. I can send photos and video like the one of the fall the only real damages that I can make calls but the other person can't hear Germay. How did all this happen. Well a couple of factors working. The phones favor first snorrasson was flying fairly low and second. The phone landed on Moss rather than the flood waters. He was trying to capture. He wait a second. Did I say video you like the one of the fall indeed I did. You can see for yourself online. What's funny about it. Is the phone landed with the camera facing up while you can't see the plane in the video you can hear the plane as it flies away sounds like the start of a pixar short Mac. Os can brought to you by me me and sponsored by Fixit save ten dollars on your next fix at fix dot com slash macos can this show is also supported by people like you patrons through patriotic and find out more in that your support port that Patriot fan dot com slash Mac. Os Cap advertising handled by backbeat media online at backbeat media DOT COM. You can reach me a couple of ways info at Mac. Os DOT COM or call seven one six seven eight zero four zero eight zero we will talk again tomorrow until then that is news from Mac. Os Ken. I'm Ken Ray Take Chow.

apple Mac Apple Jeffries Ken Ray Bloomberg Deutsche Bank Bloomberg macrumors technician Deutsche Bank Mr Price Kyle mcneely analyst Jill Google pixar Bloomberg
Money talks: China jitters

The Economist Radio

16:23 min | 2 years ago

Money talks: China jitters

"Amazon started as an online bookstore, then moved to dominate online retailing and cloud computing will it now change the game for digital advertising? It's going to be the largest player in digital advertising in America. This year overtaking telecoms giants varieties in an AT and t. and we get back to basics. Join me captain sensible on my economic policy tour of London. We're standing by a pothole, a sign warning of some maintenance to come indeed, maintenance spending on infrastructure is the first boring sensible recommendation that we have in this week's economist. Action shine at the economist and you're listening to money talks. I to China where the government is worried about the state of the economy, China's stock market is one of the world's worst performing stock markets this year and GDP figures released last week revealed a slowing pace of growth. In recent days, though officials have stepped in to sues investors on Monday. The stock market had its best day since March twenty. Sixteen Simon Rabinovich is our Asia economics editor. Hello? Simon. Why has the stock market done so poorly this year, the talk market in China is very immature. So the day-to-day movements, I don't wanna put too much emphasis on there being kind of a fundamental reason for them. But there are some big concerns about the state of the economy about the the impact. The trade war will eventually have on China, and also a lot of smaller private companies had pledged their shares as collateral for loans as the stock market fell. I fourth lenders to sell off their shares which exacerbated the sell off. So all these things kind of play together and have led the stock market to fall about thirty percent this year, which does in local currency terms, make the Chinese market the worst performing in the world. And what have China's officials been doing to push up confidence. Over the last week, we've seen a series of senior officials come out and basically talk up the market, say that the economy is actually fundamentally in good shape and the market beat even better. So four top officials, including the central Bank governor came out in a coordinated facts and last Friday to do. So they've also announced some specific measures to try to deal with the share collateral issue that I was mentioning. I'm so for example, telling insurance companies to provide loans to some of the private firms that have been the hardest hit. I this clatter problem. So compared to the kinds of rescues we've seen them stage in the past. This is still relatively mild, but very clearly they're trying to to intervene to stop the market from sliding and you mentioned concerns about this slowing economy. We already seeing evidence that the trade war is hurting China's economy. So one big caveat I about this long economy. People may have seen headline. China's growth was at its slowest and a decade or nearly a decade last quarter. That's true. But you know, it's still growing six point five percent year on year, which is very good for an economy that's as big as China's thirteen trillion dollar economy. And you know, the indicators are really mixed bag. Investment is slow quite a bit, but retail sales are still quite strong so far. In fact, the economy you know, other, it's slowing it still hoping up fairly well. The real concern is what the picture is going to be like next year. And that's a twofold concern one, because the trade wars are going to start to have more of an impact. The American tariffs are going to take a real bite out of Chinese export growth. And Secondly, as growth slows, there's concern about how the government might respond. They're still dealing with the overhang of their big stimulus after the global financial crisis and two thousand and eight thousand nine. And so you know, there's concern that the government might do something like that again, which the short. There might be good, but it would only build up, you know, a bigger problem for for them to try to clean out Simon. I know you've been traveling in south East Asia recently. How do you think the trade will will affect the region? It's a really interesting question because there's, you know, definitely a lot of downsides and that the region is very integrated. A lot of the exports flow through China and therefore of China suffers, you know the region as a whole suffer as well. But there's also some upsides because as companies look to move their operations away from China to get away from the American tariffs the best candidates to replace China or other countries in Asia. So you have a lot of countries, especially a little below China value chain that are looking to pick up business from China because of the trade war. I'm so I was in Vietnam and manufacturers. They're very optimistic that they'll be able to move into some of the space that's being voided by China signing. Thank you very much. Thank you. Next since it launched in one thousand nine hundred nine. Amazon has gone beyond just retailing into online video, electric books in cloud computing. Now, the ecommerce giant is becoming a big player in digital advertising, which will have consequences for both brands and consumers. Alexander switch bass is, are you s tech editor in San Francisco Alexandra? How is Amazon getting into the world of digital advertising? Amazon's incursion into the digital ad space is really significant because so far it's been a duopoly. A Google and Facebook have controlled the digital ad space for several years advertisers like to go where consumers spend their time. And so people are increasingly starting product searches on Amazon and to advertisers are spending more and more on Amazon as a pop for him the way that these ads look different. An Amazon's advantage is they have a lot of. Data about users and their intentions when it comes to purchasing and they're able to know immediately whether someone's at works, whether consumer has bought a product after seeing an ad. So advertisers are becoming really favorable to the product and are increasingly shifting their spend to Amazon just to give a sense of it. Some analysts are forecasting that in twenty eighteen Amazon's at business. We'll have eight billion dollars in sales, and although it's just about four percent of the US market behind Google thirty, seven percent and Facebook's Twenty-one percent. It's going to be the largest player in digital advertising in America. This year overtaking the telecoms giants, Verizon AT, and t. and we'll Amazon's advertising more effective with consumers than advertisements on Google Facebook. It's very similar to Google search advertising advertisers on Amazon are able to. Did on a key word that people are searching for. So someone is looking for running shoes. An advertiser can bid on the term running shoes, and someone will either see a banner at the top of their search or sponsored products throughout their search. And it's really interesting how quickly Amazon has pushed into advertising. It's a very distinct proposition for consumers because consumers are actually looking to purchase something, so they're primed to accept the advertising and find the advertisement beneficial. So I think that they're in a really unique position versus Facebook. For example, when ad is an interruption, an distraction from what they're there to achieve, which is to distract themselves or be entertained or connect with friends Alexandra, how will Amazon's rising at business affect the rest of the company? So analysts are betting that this ad business is going to be a significant new business that highly. Profitable unlike retail, where Amazon loses money on its traditionally commerce, business advertising has huge margins, and so by twenty twenty one analyst at piper, Jaffrey things at the profits from Amazon's ad business are going to exceed those from Amazon web service, AWS cloud computing arm. The reason this is really significant is that Amazon is going to be able to shift the profits from its ADB is much like it's done with AWS to help it expand into new areas, whether it's new geographies or new business lines. So this ad business is going to give Amazon a huge advantage when it comes to expansion and outpacing competitors. For example, it could choose to subsidize prices or new items or push into new areas. I'm and that's an advantage that other competitors do not have and how does zones entry into digital advertising affect traditional retailers? The main losers are going to be traditional retailers and in particular gross. Shree stores. Grocery stores have traditionally sold sponsorship and product placement to advertisers. They'll pay for prominent placement or for promotions like two for one deals to get consumers attention. So that trade spend is going to shift to Amazon. And so one of the most interesting things about Amazon's rise is how this is going to doubly disadvantage. Traditional retailers where traditional retailers are losing out on sales to Amazon, and they're also going to lose out on promotional spending to Amazon. So they're doubly damned. And as a result of its greater involvement in in online advertising, do you think Amazon will start to attract more regulatory scrutiny? So far regulators scrutiny has been focused on Amazon's use of data and how it might disadvantage. The third party merchants who sell different wares. On Amazon site. I think in the near term that is where attention is going to be focused. But of course, these probes will take on the shape and life of their own, and it's entirely possible that European regulators who are starting an initial investigation into Amazon will start to find other information that leads them to the business. I think it will depend on how comfortable consumers are with Amazon's data collection practices ad targeting so far consumers find it useful, and so there's no complaints. But Amazon, unlike Google and Facebook does not give controls to users so that they can turn off the amount of data that Amazon is collecting an Amazon, a huge amount both in terms of purchase intent, how people are spending their time location tracking. And then of course they have whole foods on. So increasingly, they'll be able to integrate what people are doing in the physical world and buying physical stores into their targeting and behavioral advertising campaigns. And so I think it is in time. Highly possible that there will be a consumer backlash that will incentivize regulators to probe and look more closely at Amazon's digital ad business Alexandra. Thank you very much. Thank you for having me. Finally on money talks, we regularly throw you with debates on unconventional monetary policy. The merits of fiscal stimulus and innovative structural reforms, but other areas of economic policy may lack the same sense of excitement. Well, don't captain sensible is at the ready. And we are economics editor domed on the Pence tights and Cape to explain to us that seemingly boring economic policies can actually do some good. Here in the city of London. Withstanding a hole and a sign warning of some maintenance to come on. Indeed, maintenance spending on infrastructure is the first boring sensible recommendation that we have in this week's economist. It's not something governments very good at doing politicians prefer a fancy new bridge or flamboyant you project today can put that name on the country's typically as a result spend too little on maintenance Mesa's also something the countries aren't very good accounting. Only Canada has figures. They reckon they spend about three point, three percent of GDP. One reason is difficult to count as firms a lot of maintenance themselves in house, but because of the costs imposed on you again. And again, if you're infrastructure isn't good, if you'll driving hose damages your car. Every time fixing these sort of things is an easy win for the economy. The potholes haven't prevented me for making it to the second stop on our tour of slightly boring, but very sensible economic policies in London. I'm now majesty's treasury. I'm hey, because in slightly less than a week, Britain's budget, the treasury's going to unveil its review of assets that the British government owns and how it intends to get more money from these acids. Now, this is something that a lot of people are interested in the International Monetary Fund's has just said that if governments manage to increase the yields on that assets on what they own, they could raise new revenues equal to three percent of GDP which is roughly corporation tax raises on average enrich economies. Now, lots of rich governments, feeling cash strapped, and looking for new ways to raise money as that populations age. The hope is that if they get more from what they own things like utilities, postoffices financial assets and investments held by public sector pen. Funds. If they increase the yields on those things, they wouldn't need to raise taxes so much cut spending so much to bring that budgets into balance. Now will move onto the third stop on sensible policies, tool testing. Once again, the transport infrastructure. In my captain sensible Cape, no, really. I'm now at the site of Southsea house in the city. Now head the Reuter Charles lamb said that he saw the shade of some canton te with visionary. Penan air would flip by me, stiff as in life. And indeed accountancy is the third boring, sensible suggestion where the economists have, but we're not talking about private sector accounts. The type that businesses would be concerned with which looking about the government's accounts, which is what matters to tax payers. Now, governments actually aren't as good as accounting as they could be. They tend to focus on cash flow money in money out on the annual deficit that usually remains. But of course, when the government builds a bridge or some other piece of infrastructure, they gain an asset. If you look at the balance sheets as an accountant might were then show up on the acid side. But because governments don't think about the wealth that they creating all Baha destroying. They don't prioritize investment and maintenance of infrastructure in the way they otherwise would. One of the accountants lamb saw here at Southsea house was Johm tip who apparently Fulton County the greatest character in the world on himself. The greatest accountant in it. Well, as a high words of praise, I'm not sure we'd go that far, but a little more counc- in the public sector would probably be a good thing. Henry Kerr, otherwise known as captain sensible, you'd be listening to money talks only columnist radio. If you'd like to get in touch, you can contact us on Twitter economist, radio who e-mailers at radio at economists dot com. If you want to read more, you can subscribe to the economist, economist dot com. Slash radio offer for twelve issues for twelve dollars. That's this episode of money talks. I'm richness Sean book in London. This is the economist. These days bringing drug to market is getting tougher and tougher it cintos health. We're changing the game. The result of merger between INC research and invented health city owes health is the company purpose built to create biopharmaceutical acceleration by allowing the clinical and commercial disciplines to work together from the start sharing critical data insights and knowledge. Senio health works to eliminate traditional obstacles and smooth the process at every step along the way. Cintos health is focused on a simple and goal, shortening the distance from lab to life to learn more, visit Cineas health dot com. Slash podcast.

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Fast Money 08/09/2019

CNBC's Fast Money

23:22 min | 1 year ago

Fast Money 08/09/2019

"Smart is open open is smart. We're combining the industry expertise of ibm with the open source leadership of red hat. Let's unlock the world's potential hansel. Let's put smart to work learn more at i._b._m. Dot com slash red hat at live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york's times square hi. This is fast money and i'm tyler mathisen tonight for melissa. Lee are traders on the desk or tim seymour brian kelly. Dan nathan guy adama a it was a friday fade eight folks wall street closing out a turbulent week in the red. So what can you expect for your money. In the week ahead. We will break out our crystal ball. Plus hungry hungry for opportunity investors continue to chow down on those food stocks but will this session and badly nice nice right and it is mall madness time. We're going to break down a few retail names should be on your shopping list ahead of their earnings earnings next week in that sector sure but we begin with that wild week on wall street it all started with a monday market meltdown followed by a turnaround tuesday then more wild swings throughout the week and in the end stocks closed out the week in the red so are the wild swings here to say stay wild swings wild things and if they are what guy is an investor like tyler up here high in order to say next hour zone wild swings wild thing of of course by the one of their only saw you remember that back in your date number to the name of a reliever i think is mitch williams coming out of the bullpen charlie see in major certainly now we're completely off the rails early story but volatility. I believe the volatility is here to stay. I'm shocked that the week was at worst but i'll say this again. You weren't here wednesday but wednesday. This day was the turnaround day that everybody was hoping for on tuesday. We got it on wednesday. If nothing else i'll reiterate this the lows put it on wednesday in a number of stocks and the s. and p. Five hundred specifically gives you something to trade on the long side against with that said next week is one of the potentially most dangerous just weeks for stocks in quite some time why why we'll think well we're gonna talk about all the headwinds and all the macro things going on around the world. I want to save that but i'll just say this. It's not a currency. War and brian will back me up on this. What's going on is a currency crisis. War implies that somehow it can be controlled by the participants participants crisis means. It's out of control. That's where we are and if you want proof positive. The gold market is telling you everything. You need to know listen. That's the thing that we talked about on monday sunday. Is this a currency war. Is this a currency crisis. No matter what asset class you're investing and that's what you have to answer and were quickly morphing into the crisis phase of it. We can avoid it china. It can avoid it but there's things that have to go awfully right and we've got a lot of things going on the run. So you ask the question are we are. We still in for this volatility absolutely lutely. I think we're into this volatility until the election because i think what the market's pricing in is the fact that we're going to have a trade war until the election. The equity market is pricing that i think the bond market already priced in months ago. I'm feeling very out of place because you guys none of you. Guys have a jacket on so i'm going to take i looked at the hell out of here jacket so listen so so pierre navarro just in the last hour says that china deliberately devalued its currency ten percent offset the upcoming ten percent tariffs and if they do more we will retaliate we will not let it go unanswered. What is our answer. I think yeah when we're talking about this volatility part of it is there's not great messaging out of washington so you know the president says one thing in the morning. Larry cudlow says something else in the afternoon. A tweet said something different and it's really not helping it. We know that we are not going to devalue the dollar in any material way. We just don't have the the mechanisms to do that. When you think about the chinese central bank it is controlled by their police controlled by the president for life so we're playing a different gain. There's a lot of people who think that we can really control the narrative this sort of thing. I think i think tuesday showed us or what was the day the fixing was it wednesday morning news actually actually tuesday night that had us down six hundred. I just think that was just such a shot across the bow. I don't think it might have been manipulation. It wasn't a devalue value. <hes> you know what i mean and so at the end of the day i think until we get the rhetoric and in a more i'm saying place i think this is going to go on that so sane is a good word for me to drop on because if if you think about where markets have been i think we've been all over the map and if you know we're we're we're less than one hundred s._n._p. Points off of all time highs if you think about where repositioning has gone on in terms of both wolf volatility but more importantly bear expectations you often hear me talk about the a. i. Bull bear readings and i think they're important to understand really where the sentiment for investors is. I i think at this point cinnamon is quite poor. I'm not telling you there shouldn't be concerned out there but i do think we we've actually gotten to a place where people are very aware of global growth risks. They're very very where the trade front. It's also very clear that the administration sees a market at all time highs and it's often when they come out and shoot the gun and i mean obviously they really. I believe sediments that poor we just said how far we are off from the all time highs i think back to last september when we were we had there was a lot of trepidation about the fed's rate hiking hiking policy and and obviously about trade war and the market was making new highs on september twentieth twenty-first or something like that well we went down twenty percent over the next two and a half months and you know you can say that sentiment was just really complacent back then the thing that makes me nervous collar. We're up sixteen percent on the p. right now and i think we're pretty complacent. I think excitement is way too up. Sixteen percent is that charter showed year today but if you go back and look at where we were a year ago. What are we three or four per strike eight marginal. Maybe br we've we've gone absolutely nowhere and is because every two weeks you have to price in a different scenario and we've talked about this currency again if you're thinking about what what the president's doing dan talked about multiple different multiple different messages coming out the most important thing right now is the u._s. dollar if the u._s. dollar goes higher. It's global wrecking wrecking ball so the government the the station has to keep the u._s. Dollar lower the way i look at it as a you know you talk about this a lot. Dan carter comes on and talks about it but you the other side side of that is marcus have done absolutely nothing so the point is with all the volatility and there that's a terrible risk adjusted trade but you can make an argument that we're back in october of two thousand seventeen in terms of small caps. We're back below january or january twenty eighteen in terms of overall market where you actually have seen earnings growth. We haven't been in an earnings contraction. Rates are actually lower. You can make an argument that global central banks are the backstop that none of us want to see theoretically because we know it's a it's a race to the bottom of nowhere but for markets it's a backstop and for markets markets reaching out the risk curve tells me that it's not unbelievable to think that equities could go higher at some point one thing quickly. I mean you mentioned this but you know mr navarro. Who's i'm assures they brilliant man much smarter show who said the chinese. Are you know the chinese these have been currency manipulators except that they've been propping their currency higher. Your for the last eighteen less isn't that the manipulation isn't co. Oh yes accepted other. People say that manipulating it lower so yes. They've been trying to play nice in the sandbox road the last two years right now. They're so you know what maybe we don't need to play nice. That's probably let's be clear and i don't want to segue into our next segment but we're getting there if you think that china is going to mess around with their currency when they spent the last ten years trying to engineer themselves into a global reserve currency and settlement of commodities and s._d._r. A of greater waiting and m._s._c._i. Weightings they're not going to. They're not going but they may not want to but that's the key point. We know that china needs u._s. Dollars we know they've had three banks that have gone under and have now been nationalized. We know that they need dollars to run their economy. They're short of dollars so that's why this currency war can quickly slip into a crisis and that's where you start to get the knock on effects. Let's move on to some really scary stuff why not repping up a wild week for the markets here in the u._s. and there could be some major global threats on the horizon three international hot spots on our radar that you need to watch this weekend folks chiefs. I is hong kong. Anti-government protests escalating today. Demonstrators are over. There packed hong kong's international airport. Many of them were dressed all in black doc wearing masks second italy the government. They're on the brink of collapse. I'm a little cynical here. What else is new happened. A few times ladies and gentlemen the italian prime minister now facing confidence vote as fresh elections their third of course is iran the tensions there continue to rise along the oil oil strategic straight of hormuz so let's talk about how investors should navigate this starting with hong kong which yesterday steve eisman on our air i said was the one and eisman being the guy who foretell the mark a break back. A decade ago said that that hong kong is the thing that worries him to death. You should because because the p. l. a. the people's liberation army the largest militarized force in the world and god forbid. Something happens there then. It's then it's a bilateral agreement here in the united states so we can't do anything going forward with the chinese. This situation with china gets worse and i think it probably strengthens the u._s. Dollar more which president trump it doesn't want and it weakens our stock market more so god forbid something happened. Erin appears or so something may that to me is the worst. I think the key for hong kong is what you saw. The chief executive carrie lam came out and said today these protests are hurting the economy and we're going to have to take bold actions when you hear a government official whether it be a central banker. Thanks a finance minister or the chief executive that means something big is coming right. That's that's a government talk for. We are going to do something so is it going going to be some sort of forceful squashing of the protesters or is it going to be something that they do with the currency. Maybe the hong kong dollar moves and breaks a peg over the next week or i saw but if you think about the the political side of this and obviously relates to the big forces out there <hes> u._s. and china china is accusing if you read in the china daily read all the state media media sources. They basically think that the u._s. air accused of doing u._s. Foment and this is all coordinated since the trade were ratcheted up and if you wanna believe that obviously that is only driving a bigger bigger which by the way you know this is something that is not uncommon for the administration not just this administration but others. I mean think about the role. We played in russia where we've gone into their backyard and i'm not saying thing. We're doing this in hong kong. I'm telling you if you want to really get the ire up of some of the biggest geopolitical forces in the world you go into their backyard where they think it's their sphere of influence influence and you start playing politics and frankly that is something that at least the chinese are accusing u._s. of doing and it's not gonna help the trump. No i need to worry about hong kong. I know i need to worry about in iran. Do i need to worry about italy. I think two thousand eleven twelve thirteen told us you do not have to worry about southern europe. I mean listen. We've been talking about this all all the time. Just look at european banks telling you that europe has been in a constant state of financial crisis since our crisis ten years ago. Look at all the negative june you were auburn well. What i'm saying is that the banks banks are being destroyed and i agree with that. I know but with naked yields. You can't support a banking system when the banks are being crush. I think the point is we're all kind of giggling that we change our socks more than or or italy changes governments more than we change our socks other than brian <hes> but i mean i think you have a case here. It's just to be clear. I don't wear wear socks structure around. Let's let's pivot now and talk a little bit about brexit exit. Which is the pound getting pounded on growing fears that you could leave the e._u. Without a deal so what is next for sterling carter worth is here the chart master take us through the town it sure is pounded dollar and and i don't think the pounding finish but let's draw some lines so here's a chart last three years no judgments annotations by me or anybody but i think certainly you could say this in two thousand eighteen. You would have virtually perfect double top. You also of course have a virtual perfect trend line break in trend. There's no way around that at all happen. Let's get rid of the minor. Look at more intermediate or major setups same chart and what we know of course is that having worked itself into the apex of this formation. We have now finally broken broken so that reference point is also common gone next reference. Point is the lows of two thousand sixteen close today at <hes> once about two two of three. That's about one one eight and i think it's just a foregone conclusion that we at minimum to that level now. The really big level courses the all-time epic low so here's the minor formation that we just looked at. Do we get to that low. I would think so but this is the plaza court right when the world got together weaken the dollar. <hes> expound was of course the reciprocal. That's basically parody. That's per pound per dollar. Can we head there. Why not pounded like can nice veal milanesi generally so look. Here's what i'd say. I think people don't think about the u._k. Is being a pivotal economy for the world however <hes> if you think about what we were all talking about in the summer of two thousand eleven is ultimately that <hes> the beggar-thy-neighbour approach to who <hes> how european politics are playing out is something that that really probably leads to more protectionism rather than less if you look at footsie stocks <hes> who have actually i think ultimately ultimately historically benefited from a weaker pound sterling with a five percent dividend yield. I actually think that they're very cheap at this level. I realize that it's not a very exciting place to be investing when you've got heavy bags a few industrials in their braschi connie contracting contracting but the stocks have pulled back almost ten percent in the last but don't you think the biggest takeaway. It's kind of not too different than we've seen here across europe. You've seen this kind of right-leaning populist movements. It's very nationalistic and we're seeing that being played out in these different economies. We're seeing it in ours. It's one of the reasons why why we are now. All of a sudden starting to contemplate global synchronized slowdown and now you're seeing this race to the bottom is far as yields are concerned and i guess my only point bring it back actively s. and p. five hundred that's where we started this. What does this all mean for your money. I think there's a lot of complacency. You could put up when he board. You want a lot of scary little things iran in hong kong. They're all oh proxy situations for other stuff. That's going on and i can't tell you in the last ten years back. Remember a time where there was so many hot spots where geopolitical standpoint very very very fair very fair product and if you look at it right you think around the world okay. So what do i do with my money right. I'm in britain. I'm in europe on hong kong. I'm in asia. What do i do with my money camp any of those currencies. So what do i do. I buy gold i by u._s. Treasuries and i buy bitcoin and we've seen them all rise equity and possibly u._s. Equities very you know there's a possibility yeah. You know what scared me. The most of those little eyebrows that carter just drew over the top top top eyebrows timm's point about and u._s. Equities because that is what you will see for a while until we see correlations correct go to one when we have some some sort of global sell off across multiple risks. It says we're just getting started but now we're almost finished here fast money. Here's what's coming up next. It's mall madness. We're gearing up for a big round of retail earnings how you could bags of discounts ahead of those reports but first whereas my say <music> it's a full blown food feast on wall street investors chowing down food stocks but have they had their fill where digging in we're live from the nasdaq market doc excited new york's times square more fast money right after this at fidelity you get value. You won't find anywhere else decisions. They're clear costs. They're lower than ever and account fees. There's zero so you can invest with zero trade. Offs offs open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading zero account minimums in zero counties apply to retail brokerage accounts only expenses charged by investments such as funds managed accounts and h._s._a.'s as commissions interest charges or other expenses transactions may still apply see fidelity dot com slash commissions for details fidelity brokerage services l._l._c. member n._y._s._e. All right welcome back to fast money. Wall street's fast food. Feast continued today mcdonnell tertiary tyson japodlay all fresh all-time highs in today's session in these names adding some tasty gains already baked into the year so what's driving the investor appetite for the food stocks guy. I'm not sure what it is. Maybe the running their businesses better. Maybe people going down the food chain. No pun intended but i gotta tell you a couple of stocks stick out timson this mcdonald's for awhile to poli one person's percents got it right in the call regan at piper jaffrey but the one we've been talking about here for a while is shake shack. Everybody says hundred ten times forward earnings. It's impossible to maintain this valuation but you go back and look at the quarter and their comps are up significantly year over year. They're doing everything right. There still growth and it's dan nathan will tell you tyler alert any stock. The prince eighty-eight is going to dan. Yes it is that's wow i'll tell you what so we. We spent the first part of the show talking about all all hotspots everything that's negative out here. The one positive thing we have seen here in the u._s. is average our hourly earnings are going up so americans are making a little bit more money the u._s. economy me is still strong so you wanna stick with ones that are somewhat cedric which brings you to like a chipotle mexican grill now. It's already had a really good run but if you're looking for someplace to kind of hide out the relative strengthen that is pretty impressive food the reasons this is happening talk to me me or a combination of the fact that digitalization in <hes> online their loyalty programs are leading to first of all <hes> higher ticket prices <hes> they're getting actually a more loyal fan base or more loyal customer. You have a dynamic mcwethy guys talked about really to who their consumers and the consumers actually doing better <hes>. I think these are companies that have mcdonalds. Mcdonalds is growing six seven percent in terms of their mazing that might as well be amazon okay and and for this company relative to itself when it's actually changing and rehashing its image one in fact to me. This is one of the top global iconic brands that explains juan willing to pay more for it especially in zero-rate environments at the tech thing kind of age out at some dominos for a couple of years. This thing was a massive performer. People were talking about all the improvements that they're making obviously understand the technology. Now you're seeing that earnings growth is massively decelerating. The stock is not doing what mcdonald's are or these others are doing it. I think it's down probably twenty percent from its recent highs and some of that is just this is a stock trading mid twenty five twenty six times growing all the sudden at mid to low teens and then all of a sudden. You say all all right well. We've got that leverage. We kind of move this thing forward. I don't love the tech team. I think it's i think it's transitory as the fed and they're giving me a rap. You can get boldly quick of next our final traits. I'm david favourite join me croak into aena and jim cramer for the opening bell our of c._n._b._c. squawk on the street the podcast subscribe for free wherever you listen and you can always catch us live weekdays. It's nine a._m. Eastern c._n._b._c. fresh news just in and you probably saw it down there at the bottom of the screen. North korea has fired two unidentified projectiles projectiles of all the hot spots we just talked about we did not mention north korea but it remains one to keep an eye on this isn't related to the trade war slash currency urgency wars where interfering with hong kong north korea is distracting us from what else is going on so i don't think this is a coincidence you see that one hundred percent hundred hundred percent and it happens on a friday when the market's closed gives you something to think about over the weekend. I'm going to be a conspiracy theory yes because they're usually right to having said that. I mean think about the distraction than north. Korea has been for market players. North korea has been almost irrelevant every time we've thought about it as geopolitical risk. I don't wanna be overly naive. We've to the tensions that are in that part of the world but this is not something i'm trading on in fact. This is the second headline like this this weekend but hold on another front though in this war that we are having having with china that's going to go on for decades. That's really the point here. This is a multi-front war at this point. Which would kim be doing this if he did not have the tacit permission of beijing. No no no. That's that's exactly the point so you know tim's more. It's not a catalyst that you're gonna monday morning a trade on but you need to be aware that we are in this kind of economic slash currency war. These type of things happen all right. Let's get to our final trade. Show that who's gonna go first your i am from what happened. So i want to go to mcdonalds. I think steve easterbrook is phenomenal job not only on u._s. Constantly changing the image of this company digitizing. I stay in this trade. Despite this valuation evaluation to me right now does not matter became so. I like to talk a lot about the dollar but i'm gonna talk about different currency tonight g. l. d. you buy that one here all right sir sir. Yes stick around for a show that comes up right after yeah. That's going to be talking about cisco. I actually think this is probably one of the most important earnings prints of this cycle right. Now the cycle going to tell you how to play it. You gotta stay term. I the the fact that you just threw that jacket off. I mean i it was that was just right. Hold the sunset on-site to roll bracelets. I might stick around for that and chen. We talked about it last night. While you were having avenue blue plate special there denny's we were talking about him and my final trade where is she is amanda north carolina for future considerations not yes you got there. She is the been toasted and roasted all week. We've loved having with us. We wish you good. She is going only on the pursuit of happiness tour north carolina. We wish all the best kind of mess her tab. You will be much missed. That's fast money but don't go anywhere because was options. Action is next who knows what i'll take off brought to you by fidelity where decisions asians are clear and costs are lower than ever learn more about our industry leading value and open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services l._l._c. member n._y._s._e. S._i._p._c.

hong kong china Mcdonalds president iran europe brian kelly Dan nathan italy fed new york tim seymour Dan carter North korea tyler mathisen ibm Lee mitch williams
Phones are cheap, but iPhones keep getting more expensive

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

27:33 min | 2 years ago

Phones are cheap, but iPhones keep getting more expensive

"This. Marketplace podcast is brought to you by Amazon web services ever wonder how we're streaming millions of movies on demand. Amazon web services is how with the broadest functionality and the most experience leading enterprises trust the AWS cloud. Learn more at AWS is how dot com slash podcast. Ambra navy Federal Credit Union their flagship rewards credit card offers three times points on all travel purchases and two times points on everything else. You also get other benefits. Like a statement credit for global entry and TSA pre check up to one hundred dollars twenty four seven stateside member support and access to navy Federal's online shopping center checkout, navyfederal dot ORG for more information and to apply now. Get back toward people the economy these counting on you from American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles. I'm KAI Rozelle. It is Thursday today. The first of November good as always to have you along everybody, you know, for all the good economic news that is out there. And there is plenty from GDP growth two jobs to consumer confidence. There've been two things that have been stuck for the better part of the past decade pay is the first we talk about it all the time wages have just recently started to rise and then related worker productivity. The most recent report on which we got from the Labor Department this morning output per hour, as they measured or in layman's terms, widgets produce per hour worked rose just one point three percent in the April-June quarter from a year ago, and it has been stuck near there as I said for the past ten years that's exceptionally low. But why and really what does it matter? Marketplace's Sabrina shortage is going productivity matters because it basically determines how rich we are as a country. It is a huge healed because we want to maintain robust economic growth in the long run. The only way. That we're going to be able to do it is with significant productivity growth. Lebron sadder teaches economics at Carnegie Mellon. Now as you heard. We are not becoming more productive as a science as fast as anyone would like there are some short term reasons for that says, Nick bloom and communist at Stanford most recent cool to the investment home is actually very pool if companies invest in workers, they'll become more productive. They'll have the latest training our latest equipment. But bloom says investment has been lacking recently that centrally in itself warring because just a lot of businesses. Don't see the current boom losting, but big picture longer term. We don't actually know why we aren't getting more productive as fast as we used to. But there are theories the most depressing one is that is just hotter and hotter to come up with big new ideas, the combustion engine the computer, the iphone the pace of mind-blowing breakthroughs has slowed in some of the latest innovations haven't had that much impact on productivity those pizza. Ceos famous quit. We wanted flying caused instead be good one hundred forty. Characters finally more optimistically, it may be that. There are a lot of innovations that are about to make us more productive. But they'll take awhile, for example in the eighties. Productivity growth was week. Even though computers were popping up all over the place says LeBron stutter what we now know what's going on is that US firms were figuring out how to use all those computers. So it may be that we just need time for the newest technologies a nanotech to revolutionize the workforce all over again. But it could take a decade or four to do that in New York. I'm revenge. Sure for marketplace or four oh, good. But listen, let's take what to hit and run with it for a little while here because even with lousy productivity growth the economy overall, as I said has been growing and pretty robustly President Trump and his advisors like to say that that growth is going to keep going, but they don't have a whole lot of company among more objective economists because in part of one of the side effects of a strong economy. Marketplace's Amy Scott explains the tight labor market economic growth. Conundrum. Here's the dilemma think of GDP as the economy's output to keep it growing at three percent. A year. You have to have either more people or the people who are working have to become a lot more productive. Lakshman? Asha thin is co-founder of the economic cycle research institute, a consulting firm. We already heard from Sabrina about productivity and with unemployment now at a near fifty year low of three point seven percent and the labor force barely growing. Atchison says there just aren't enough people to do the work put another way. Imagine the economy is a coal mine as miners keep digging the vein gets thinner and thinner economics. Professor Lawrence white at NYU says to keep getting more coal, you either need more workers more productive workers or you. Discover that oh you went a little farther, and suddenly there's this wonderful new seam of coal that you hadn't realize. Used even without such a discovery dean Baker with a nonprofit center for economic and policy. Research says we haven't hit the limits of growth yet because there are still people if prime working age on the sidelines. Baker says right now, the labor force participation rate is about three percentage points lower than it wasn't two thousand corresponds to run four or five million people. So we definitely have some room there. Maybe not three percent worth but still room to grow. I Amy Scott for marketplace Wall Street day traders started the month, November up the mystically. You might say we'll have the details when we do the numbers. You can pick pretty much any financial measurement alike, campaign fundraising outside political money television ad dollars. And as we sit here five days out from a mid-term election. We are blowing through spending records in every direction all told by the time the votes are counted the final tally is expected to top five billion dollars. But here's the thing. Even with time running short and billions already spent candidates are still sitting on huge piles of cash, and they are facing some hard decisions on at a spended or maybe not spend it. Marketplace's Kimberly Adams has that one. Madison County held its twelfth annual trick or trunk festival last night in central Virginia kids, and parents were lined up early to collect handy from the cars and booze ringing the high schools parking lot, including one booth where live goats were dressed up as. Figure trunk is about the candy. But it's also a good PR opportunity for local businesses civic groups, and of course, political candidates, go just your Catrine you go. Also, there you go. By the way, Enver Riggleman as a Republican in a very tight race for an open house seat in this mostly rural district that includes the city of Charlottesville. He's handing out candy from the back of a pickup truck decorated with campaign signs and hay bales. Do it man. I got I got vote for gender rappers. And all these all these candy. So you got to you got to be creative Riggleman joking about the custom candy wrappers, but his campaign probably could have afforded them. Lots of candidates are headed into the final stretch with a record amount of cash on hand Republican strategist Kris Jankowski says they're going to need it while the week before the election. You wanna be at your maximum spend level to reach voters who may just be tuning in as last minute as if they could tune out, Tim Duggan's, a local pastor says he's being bombarded nonstop billboards signs phone calls and forget TV just feels like, you know, every commercial break or every poser. It's that more than buying sponges for mister clean. A lot of those TV ads are for democratic congressional candidate Leslie Cockburn who's challenging examination. Summation I care deeply about the land. And I care deeply bring you better government to district. Cockburn is trying to flip a district that last elected Republican by a wide margin. She's raised and spent more than two million dollars twice as much as Riggleman and with the race. So close both candidates have to make some tough spending decisions. Molly Allen is a democratic consultant and fundraiser, they don't wanna be left with any money on the table. Because if they ended up losing they've got money in the Bank. You know, what else could they have spent it on to in order to turn out the vote. She says at the same time candidates. Don't want to take on debt and win by a big margin or worse. Take on debt and lose. It's all a gamble that the campaign manager at the consultants and the candidate I'll have to make together and understand the risk. They're taking Riggleman thinks his team has done the Right Math for the final week right now. I think we're within about fifty thousand dollars of being sort of hitting the. Nail in the head. But sort of leaves a lot of room for error. Republicans dredges Jankowski has seen many campaigns. Missed the Mark over the years and says some candidates, especially a few GOP incumbents are under spending this cycle. You're going to see some surprise upsets there probably not spending enough money right now. But they don't know it, and they won't know it until around nine o'clock on election night. There's a lot we won't know until nine o'clock on election night in Washington. I'm Kimberly Adams for marketplace. Google's CEO soon. Darva child is a bit back on his heels at a conference in New York this afternoon, reacting to a question about today's employees walk out from the company's offices all over the world employees protesting Google's policies and practices on sexual harassment. Gooby said a very high bar and be clearly didn't live up to our expectations. And which is why we felt it was important experts are support for the employee's today. And you know, the first step you taken these things as to knowledge and apologize for past actions. The pain they cost we sincerely did that to the company. Secondly, woods alone aren't enough on you know, you have to follow up with actions. It has been tense year in that regard at the advertising and search company. Kate congre covers technology for the New York Times. We've got her in San Francisco, kqei welcome to the program. Thanks for having me. So the proximate cause of this walkout was the article in the times last week about the ninety million dollar exit package that Google executive. God even after credible sexual harassment investigations. But it's not it's not the company's first brush with this kind of thing. Right. No. It's not I you know, there have been issues with gender based harassment at Google for a long time employees have brought up issues around pay disparity and equality in the workplace. And this was just I think more of the final straw, then the impetus for the protests, what is it that employees want? What what do they want the company to do about it? The employees have put together a list of five demands. In among them are an end to forced arbitrage in for sexual harassment and assault as well. As the appointment of an employee Representative on the board of directors. They're also asking for increased transparency about compensation. There's a great line in your piece from I believe, it's the woman who organized the walkout the protests. She said Google, which is supposed to have this great reputation for employer relations, and culture is not even meeting basics of fairness and equity. It seems fairly damning. Yeah. It's clear stable to in the women that you're quoting has worked at Google. I think for eleven years, so she has a really long history. The company has seen this go on for a long time. They exert gives have made some comments internally and made apologies to the employee is. But I think the feeling is that it's too late. And I think employers want to see more than an apology. They want to see actions being taken can we back up for a minute and talk about tech sort of writ large. There has been an increasing trend of employees activism, it companies like Microsoft, and and Amazon and Facebook goule now the latest it's kind of interesting that this is all coming to ahead at a very interesting moment in in politics, and our society angry. I think for tech workers. There's been sorta this awakening in the past year in throughout tech. Really there's this idea coming too late where people are wondering what responsibility they have for the products that they're creating I think, you know, for a long time tech was just really focused on building new features and making fun products and Dow in the last year or so. We've seen a lot of the consequences of that sort of uninhibited growth, and employees are really trying to step back and say, you know, what responsibility. Do I bear for this one wonders if the executives are having those same conversation one does. Okay, kid, congress, you covers technology of the New York Times. We've got her in San Francisco getting the car. I'm sure pretty soon to get outta amount of you Guba walkout K. Thanks a lot. I appreciate it. Thank you. Coming up. They've never used any technology like this, and along comes device that they can speak to remember what having the internet in the palm of your hand was amazing. Yeah. That in rural India, but I student numbers. Here you go down throws up to sixty four one percent. Twenty five thousand three eighty NASDAQ picked up one hundred twenty eight points one point seven percent, seventy four thirty four the S and P five hundred founded self twenty points. I are one percent ended things at twenty seven forty just because I can't I'm going to say, I don't think I use the really happy music here. Chemical company DuPont up. Eight percent that reporting solid results has joined by strengthen cosmetics paint and packaging products aerospace company. Boeing heavy equipment maker Caterpillar led gains in the s&p five hundred Caterpillar advanced two point seven percent today. Boeing gain two and three tenths percent insurance. AIG remember them. They found four and four tenths percent today reported smaller than expected losses after natural disasters in North America. And over in Japan. Allstate dropped six percent today. You're listening to marketplace. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by pay pal. Linda wants an attorney transformed her resale hobby into a thriving luxury consignment company called Linda's stuff as a company specializing in high end previously owned goods, Linda has counted on pay pal to help give customers confidence and protect her business from fraud. She's counted on papal every step of the way when it comes to growing your business. Pay pal is your payments partner. Visit pay pal dot com slash growth to set up a business account today m by lions for lifetime income. Did you know it's possible to receive protected monthly income in retirement. There are many income strategies but annuities can provide protected monthly income for the rest of your life, keyword protected and knew what he's a smart way to ease the risk of outliving your savings because you know, you'll be getting a monthly income you can count on for the rest of your life. What you'll receive from your savings investments and social security, and what you'll actually need in retirement, maybe two very different numbers. So at retire your risk dot org. You Andrew financial advisor can see how annuities can help fill the potential gap. So you can make the most informed decisions regarding your retirement. Whether you're a season investor or just beginning to plan, your retirement, find out if making annuities a vital component of your portfolio is the right choice for you. Protect your income retire your risk. Learn more at retire your risk dot org. That's retire. Your risk dot org. This is marketplace, I'm KAI Ryssdal. We talked yesterday about pricing power. And how companies are just now ten years after the financial crisis starting to get it back. You know, who's always had pricing power a whole lot of pricing power. Apple that's who apple role that a bunch of new gear in Brooklyn the other day. I had pro macbook air mcminn whole bunch more one thing they all have in common prices like twenty percent higher than the generation of the vices. They are replacing marketplace Jenna Bevan looks at apple strategy of price. Really as product. Apple customers are famously loyal to the companies versions of smartphones, laptops, and tablets UBS. Analyst Timothy curious says, that's one reason why apple can keep raising prices be replacement product for an iphone is that I felt and the only question is when there are tangible reasons why apple products are getting more expensive. According to the company apple keeps adding more advanced features in its lineup like four power. Chips, plus people are keeping their devices longer. So in a sense apple is replacing volume with price. And while apple has a range of prices for its devices pricing strategy consultant Rafeal Muhammed says the company is really good at pushing people to its highest end products. I'm an economist and fairly thrifty person. And even I but the excess max that's one of Apple's newer iphones, and it starts at eleven hundred dollars. So how expensive can apple actually go analysts? Mike Olsen at piper Jaffrey says there is a limit. We did a survey of fifteen hundred iphone owners who said they did not up grade to the iphone ten and thirty one percent of them said the reason they did not have grade was it was too expensive Olsen says that's proof that not everyone is willing to pay more for an iphone just because it's an iphone in New York. I'm Jenny Bevan for marketplace. So as I said, we talked about inflation and rising consumer prices on the program. Yesterday. I had gone out yesterday morning on Twitter, and as people what their price increase breaking point was here is some of which y'all had to say if the price of my favorite twenty dollar wine becomes twenty two. I am definitely not buying an extra Butler wine. My husband, and I gave up cable TV over three decades ago too expensive, my kids, and I love movies, and we go to dinner with my son comes home from boarding school. That's about twice a month. If dinner in a movie costs more than one hundred thirty dollars for the three of us. We'd be more on our subscription channels for entertainment, when Fuji pack foam one from ten dollars to forty dollars. I stopped buying it right away. If the price on dating apps goes up as opposed I'll be out to not have to try to meet people over some discretionary overpriced coffee eyelid probably limit. What I would spend on fresh fruit from out of my area, strawberries, from California blueberries from South America, Amazon prime might have to get. The axes. Well, if the price of automobiles goes up ten to fifteen percents, I would definitely put off a purchase. Wait a couple of years and just drive what I've got to kind of interesting, right? But along with those answers where people saying that there are those things that no matter how high the price climbs, they still gotta have it should be ticket items like appliances that doesn't really feel like you have a choice. So even if the price goes up twenty or thirty percent, you can't not buy them two things. I'll never give up though are organic half and half from my coffee and good fresh North Atlantic salmon alcohol for the house theater. Tickets streaming services and whatnot milk whole creamy milk. There's no price too high to pay for good stuff like that my local delivery of the newspaper. It went up about thirty percent, which was a huge hike. But we're paying it extra special for KYW. I'm going to buy at least one pumpkin spice slotted this year. No matter what it costs. All right. So number one cut it out number two just for the record pumpkin spice. Lot days are like four and a half bucks for the small one this year. That's like twenty five cents more than you paid last year. I'm just saying you heard from David Romer in Denver Nesto from Chicago. He didn't want us to use his last name, Michael Devitt, and Boise Idaho. Kaya price Denison, short pump, Virginia, Ellen Murphy, and Kansas City, Sudip Chatterjee and San Francisco Kelly Reynolds in which Kansas Chelsea lately and the Moines Iowa and Laura Judson in Alabama, South Carolina. We are going to do a little reporting over time with those folks find out whether they have the break off with any of their special consumer discretionary products will let you know what they had to say. There are according to the mobile industry group G S M A more than three billion mobile internet users on the planet now. Yes, a new iphone as we just heard is more than a thousand dollars. But there are smartphones out there that you can have for less than one hundred bucks, which means a lot of people in a lot of emerging economies are getting access to the internet going from zero to fully online in a hurry. Thanks to cheap. Smartphones. Ravi Agarwal is the managing editor at foreign policy. He's got a new book out as well on how those smartphones are changing India, and it's a Konami this called the India connected. Welcome to the program. Thank you very much. I think maybe what we ought to do. I is is just have a primer I suppose on the Indian economy in Indian society. Right. It's largely rural. It's a little old fashioned in many ways. Right. That's absolutely, right. And you know, this is a country that despite everything you hear about in the news. Of it being a big rising economy, which it is it still overwhelming the poor. I mean, the average Indian is making one fourth when the average Chinese is making and one twenty fifth what the average American is making. So everything that's going on in the west around the world when it reaches India, it intensifies, and yet it is now being introduced to the internet via these devices, we hold in our hands as opposed to the way a lot of other countries did which was dialup modems, and then DSL and broadband, and we sort of got used to it now India's being plunked down in the middle of the internet via smartphone. The year two thousand only two percent of Indians had access to PC's and telephone lines and therefore the internet. This one device is getting hundreds of millions of people online in a way that was is just unprecedented in the world. What's it like when you get out of say, Delhi or Mumbai and out into the countryside, and you pull your? Your iphone, you know, eight or ten or whatever it is out of your pocket and show the people what's it like that really is for them almost like a magical mystical thing. They've never used any technology like this and along comes a device that vacant speak to and it speaks back to them. And it shows them videos. It is also their first camera. It is also their first MP3. player in walkman. It is a first of everything the first alarm clock and on the one hand, that's good. But it's also overwhelming you may not know how to use this device, you could be more susceptible to being addicted to it. You could be more susceptible to pornography. Too fake news to rumor mongering, and there's a whole bunch of things that it is unleashing an India. That are quite dangerous. Will look we gotta be honest, right? We are now seeing certainly in the United States in the past couple of years the way mobile technology is contributing to the spread of misinformation about many many. Things I imagine in India the potential for harm is even greater really is for people who discover the internet in the late nineteen ninety s used to receive chain mails on Email. Remember emails saying, hey, if you don't follow this to ten people you'll be knocking off, and you know, we fell for it. Do it a few times? And then you learn and then you build your own sense of what to do and what not to do in. India? People didn't go through that people can be more gullible to it because they're not used to looking at the internet is something that you don't necessarily draws one imagines that over time the benefits of smartphone technology in a country of one point three soon to be one point four billion people most of which is rural and poor one imagines was beneficial even out over time. But in the short term who've winning is at the foreign. Companies is that the upper classes in India who's getting the benefit I would say net net. This is a good thing for now. I think for the Indian middle class and the lower middle class they are being able to communicate with each other. They are being able to look for jobs in ways that wasn't possible before they are more efficient. They can use maps. And this is something that growing up in India. It was hard to project forward and imagine that this would happen that aid device would be in. Everyone's hand of any sort. This is revolutionary and that is a good thing. It's a book called India connected about smartphone. Technology on the union economy society, also the world's biggest democracy by Ravi will probably thanks. Appreciate your time. Thank you very much. The spinal note on the way out today, which is definitely not a sub tweet made for radio saw this in the New York Times today. This is the date. I remember the first is the day that Finland publicly discloses everybody's tax returns. They just open them up. There are goods and bads, of course, and that kind of transparency, but interesting idea, right? All right. We gotta go. Let us just say up on Wall Street today. Can we say that down dust rose up to sixty four one percent? Nasdaq up on twenty eight one and seven tenths percent S and P five hundred twenty eight points to the good that is one percent misguided though. The very happy music was Jeff Buckley Epstein, Stephen, Gregory, John, Gordon, and Betsy Streisand are the marketplace editing staff, the managing editor is dear to depth GAM Chi Rozelle, we will sit Amar. This is APN.

India Apple New York Times Google San Francisco New York Amazon Enver Riggleman Sabrina shortage harassment Lebron KAI Rozelle Kimberly Adams United States Los Angeles Virginia Nick bloom Ravi Agarwal Ambra navy Federal Credit Unio
Housing Starts Fall to 3-Month Low: BofA Earnings Recap

P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

29:53 min | 1 year ago

Housing Starts Fall to 3-Month Low: BofA Earnings Recap

"World leaders are listening. They're listening for solutions to global challenges ensuring that future generations have everything they need world leaders and CEOS like mckechnie Bunny Martin Lau Nandan the Connie Hank Paulson Janet Yellen and Likud Don Quixote are waiting to hear your ideas. If they like your idea it may become a reality you and your idea could join them at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing learn more at Bloomberg Dot com slash solutions welcome to the Bloomberg P._N._l.. PODCAST I'm Paul Swinney along with my co-host this Abramowicz each day we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for you and your money whether at the grocery store or the trading floor find the Bloomberg pl podcast on Apple podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts as well as at Bloomberg Dot com well the market appears to be pricing in three rate cuts for the remainder of two thousand nineteen. I guess the only real question is at the next meeting will be twenty five basis points or fifty to get a sense of what to look for when the Fed does meet a we welcome Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro research ahead of economics there neil thanks so much for joining us so what is your sense that when we when the Fed does meat on the thirty first will they cut by twenty five or fifty. What is your sense Neil <hes>? My son says that they cut by twenty five <hes> I think I <hes> you know historically. If you look at it <hes> you typically quickly get fifty basis point cuts going into recession or we have some sort of <hes> you know crisis on our hands <hes> we don't have either of those things at the moment <hes> so. This looks like a twenty five basis point cut is is probably <hes> what's more likely at the same time I mean if you just sort of read the <hes> The fedspeak that we've seen I mean you have the most dovish members calling for twenty five basis point cut so if you can't convince them of a fifty basis point moves <hes> and you know I think it's pretty unlikely so I think the first goal is probably a twenty five basis point cut at the end of the month so now I'm curious what your impression is just generally of where we are in the economic cycle because we are getting these bank earnings and they show a very strong mm consumer yet a relatively muted capital markets activity. Is there some kind of leading indicator that you see in their of businesses perhaps slowing some of their big moves while the consumer stay strong right now yeah. Maybe I mean I don't I can't speak <hes> Lisa specifically to <hes> to bank earnings but <hes> I mean my my sense is basically that <hes> you know these issues that we've been talking about a lot in the macro space trade tensions attends <hes> you know week overseas activity <hes> you know my sense is that probably impacts <hes> you know medium and large sized firms more than it does domestic consumers and so <hes> and you're seeing that largely reflected in the data <hes> business fixed investment has been quite sluggish but consumer spending has been quite good now of course <hes> you know at some point something's going I have to give a final demand is holding up reasonably well. <hes> you know then businesses are going to have to play catch up and <hes> and that means that you know you you may see sort of a pickup in an investment activity as <hes> as firm sort of realign <music>. I'm well the final Neil I mean you could go either way here. So businesses may have to play catch up with the consumer and invest more or you could say the other way around that consumers will have to catch up with the businesses if businesses aren't investing and aren't necessarily surly hiring more people are even cutting in the face of some of these trade tensions right. I mean I it could go either way. We had that work in two thousand fifteen and twenty sixty. You WanNa make that mistake again. I mean I think consumers ultimately are the sort of main and driver the primary driver of <hes> dynamics. You know I mean consumer spending tends to lead investment <hes> even when you look at you know sort of just changes in in growth dynamics so <hes> and <hes> you know even when you look at investment spending in the U._S. U._S.. It's it's <hes> I mean compared now <hes> to to how it was when we actually did have a cap extra session which was in Twenty fifteen twenty sixteen kept backs is holding up reasonably well all things considered I mean we we're here talking about <hes> you know how terrible things are <hes> in the global economy with the stock market at all time highs and you know all this trade a trade uncertainty and even then <hes> you know investment spending still holding up reasonably well so you know the fact that U._S.. Investment spending is doing so much better than. Than many other places in the world tells you that there's already something going on with respect to those companies responded with respect to firms responding to final demand so <hes> you know you're not seeing big declines in employment <hes> you're seeing a plumbing continued to expand. I was <hes> intending to spend money and that filed a man that firms ultimately have to respond to so one of the things that the Fed is looking at is inflation where we right now with the inflation outlook in the U._S.. <hes> <hes> I think inflation is running persistently below the feds target <hes> you know I think if you have like if you look at it you know very very near term I mean it's pretty clear that <hes> you know the feds transitory story that they had been sort of pitching for a few you months there. I mean that's actually kind of worked out. I mean inflation has core inflation as popped up a bit but it's not enough to kind of you. Know change the underlying story about inflation. <hes> inflation has persistently below two percent and that means that <hes> you know in my view at least <hes> you know the benefits of the Fed doing something here in terms of accommodating <hes> outweighs the cost so you're bullish. You're very bullish. It sounds like and I'm curious. When you think that things you're welcome right? I mean I love it absolutely love it. It's happy Wednesday. I do want to look at though and wonder you know when you see this credit cycle perhaps aging because people have been saying we're the ninth inning for the past six years and I'm just wondering from your perspective what will actually take to get there. What in terms of credit I mean <hes> the business cycle I mean what are we actually see a downturn where things going to be looking less rosy <hes> well? I mean I think when you have a <hes> sharp upturn in real interest rates <hes> you know then I think that would be something that would that would concern me <hes> but at the moment I mean you still have you know nominal donald growth running well above the <hes> level of overnight interest rates. I mean that that's that's reasonable. Indication as any of the business cycle still has room to run. <hes> you know you have <hes> you know when you take a look at sort of the the kind of classic because sort of check boxes that people have when they WANNA make a recession call <hes> not they're no. They're not and <hes> and so <hes> it's GonNa be a while yeah and I just think that the housing market in the U._S. is recovering and it's really unusual to see <hes> you know some kind of a big downturn in the economy without Sean with residential investment accelerating Neil Datta. Thank you so much love having Yamile Todd ahead of economics for a renaissance macro research joining us seeing positive signs ahead well well. It has been obvious for some time. The president trump is not a fan of the Federal Reserve in its chairman j Pal the question is whether the president's tweets and other commentary influences the Fed to get some analysis of this. We welcome our next guest Christopher. Konin Christopher is a reporter for Bloomberg News covering the Federal Reserve Chris. Thanks so much for joining us from Washington so let's go to the big question to what extent if any do you think President Trump's commentary gary and tweet about Jay pal about the Federal Reserve influences the Fed at all. I really don't think it has that much influence. <hes> the Fed has a pretty clear process it goes through a very rigorous intense process <hes> to prepare for each of the F._o._M._C. meetings they happen eight times a year and it's a it's a big deal in the participants have to really have their act together <hes> when they come and make arguments at that table about what they should to do with policy and <hes> by all accounts <hes> current members former members people who understand this process staff people politics just doesn't have a place in there now at the same meantime. We have to grant that you know these are human beings. They don't sit there talking about the president's pressure but it they must feel it. They really see the tweets they see the news about it and if anything you know former our senior staff have told me it may actually make it harder for the president to get what he wants. When a decision is a real close call so let's hold on go ahead before we get into the idea idea that they might try to rebel against him and show that their independence by not doing what he wants in on the margins I wanNA talk about moves at president? Trump could actually make that economically would create a better picture for a rate cut or further rate. eight cuts and i'm talking about tariffs because president trump's cutting out now coming out now in threatening additional tariffs in china saying he can levy them whenever he wants and a lot of people are saying you know is this perhaps an effort to push the fed into cutting rates even and more ahead of the two thousand twenty election in other words that the fed would be compelled do so from an economic perspective even though it's a politically driven economic perspective does seem like a bit of a circular of not sure how strategically he thinks about what the f- he wants the fed to do when he considers imposing tariffs on china there's a whole other agenda there obviously with respect to our trade relations with china and what's he what he wants to achieve their <hes> that may be putting too many pieces pieces in play at once it certainly is true that the fed has to deal with the reality of those tariffs in the extent to which they hurt the economy they certainly are hurting business sentiment and the way companies companies think about investing and hiring that seems to be showing up so it is factoring in to their analysis of whether the economy may need a rate cut or not that's for sure so chris one of the issues i think is probably maybe even more <hes> potentially impact on the fed than tweets is kind of an effort on part of the president to arguably quote unquote pack the fed with phnom with people that are more amenable take his easing of federal policy gives a sense of kind of where that stands within the fed have how are they doing that is that it represents a big turn of events that happened gradually and i'm told that has upset folks inside the fed much more than the barrage of tweets and comments attacking the fed over monetary policy it represents a serious potential threat in a couple of ways first of all it could be a direct <hes> away way to get political partisans inside the f._o._m._c. <hes> you know of course that he trump made <hes> a number of nomination some of which they cut through that were entirely conventional and have support helped the fed <hes> but this year the the nominations for the people considered for nominations has changed <hes> currently we have a couple of people <hes> and one one person in particular represents this kind of change her name is judy shelton she has been in economic advisor to trump during campaign <hes> she's a she is <hes> i would say a classic libertarian thinker and author <hes> has been a long standing <hes> advocate of the gold standard now she's been talking despite that pack background strangely has been talking about wanting to lower interest rates so that makes people at the fed think she represents just a sort of partisan loyalty to the president and if confirmed that puts that partisan political agenda potentially right inside the rate setting meetings and second <hes> she also <hes> just really does not seem to agree with the fundamental mission of the central bank of the united states she does not think they should be setting a the benchmark interest rate to guide the market well <hes> but in fairness right now a lot of people in the market are very unclear of what the feds mandate actually is because it was on one at one point <hes> inflation at one point it was employment at one point people are speculating it's just keep the markets propped up well the law is pretty clear they have dual mandate to keep prices stable through their inflation target and to maximize employment employment in a sustainable way <hes> it can't be much clearer that it is in the law <hes> and of course as finding as <hes> economic and financial conditions change <hes> the fed focuses on one area and other if they're meeting one mandate then they they look at the other and how they can try to guide the the economy back to a point where they're meeting both of those targets <hes> and of course when it comes to you know <hes> judy's argument i'm in about the market should be setting rates it i don't think it can be reasonably said that the fed just sets rate and expects everyone to fall in line actual borrowing costs are kind of a result of a dance between the fed and the markets they're very much listening to each other <hes> so her her thinking is a bit more fundamentalist i think and does Bite the fact that the pressure is rising from president trump cris conde of Bloomberg News World leaders are listening. They're listening for solutions to global challenges ensuring that future generations have everything they need world leaders and CEOS like Mu Cashew Bunny Martin Lau Nandan the Connie Hank Paulson Janet Yellen Ellen and Alec Odinga. Tei are waiting to hear your ideas. If they like your idea it may become a reality you endure idea could join them at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Beijing learn more at Bloomberg Dot com slash solutions well. We have read on the screen as Greg reported. Let's see where the action is in small caps APPs with Bloomberg stocks editor Dave Wilson Day when you look at I'm looking at more red than I'm seeing with the larger companies that's for sure the Russell Two thousand index stand seven tenths of a percent the S. and p. five hundred slower by just three tenths of a percent while one of the Russell's steepest declines belongs to beyond spring whose ticker is B.. Y. Sl the cancer drug developer's fallen more than fifteen percent after raising thirty five million dollars in a share sale representing more than an eight eighty percent stake in Oviedo form sued Nichols Ticker Iron. Oh was dropped fourteen percent. The drug developer ended research on a bladder cancer treatment and said its workforce would be reduced by twenty eight percent as part of an effort to cut costs loss now in Croat ticker M N K's lost about nine and a half percent. The drug maker ended the study of its biggest selling product H._p.. Act Thar Gel as a treatment for Lou GEHRIG's disease now the Russell's biggest game inbox two avro bio ticker av are pro. These stem cell therapy developer has risen more than sixteen percent agro bio raised one hundred and twenty million dollars by selling the equivalent of a twenty one percent stake and may come technology solutions to guarantee SL as a more than eight percent the chip maker raised equivalent by from neutral at Piper Jaffrey David Wilson. Thank you so much for being with US Dave Wilson always with those great updates make America shares up a little a little bit about four tenths of a percent after reporting earnings that had good had bad you basically could plug in the name of a number of different banks this earning season and have the same story told Allison Williams joining us here. She is the hardest working woman in at Bloomberg these days of Bloomberg intelligence senior financial analyst so alison what's the deal with so <hes> net interest margin miss guidance coming down. That's similar to what we saw across the big four banks that that I cover the differentiator has been costs and so for Bank of America basically they had said <hes> they expected cost to be flat this year now they're saying there may be some opportunity for those to come down so offsetting the net interest margin Paine Webber. Let's back up for second may have opportunity to reduce those costs. Is that another way of saying we can cut jobs well it. It depends where the costs are coming from right so to some extent. They don't want to be cutting jobs in in certain areas right because there's a pickup in opportunity so mortgage banking is an area actually where you might be seasom additions across some of the Companies Wells Fargo yesterday also sang that was an area for for higher our costs they're also saying they're not gonNA cut tech spending so that's something that you don't WanNa see banks during especially given sort of the battleground in some of the U._S. companies winning on that front but you know in terms of other areas says cutting back you know <hes> Paul you can remember the days when you go through the department and everybody gets a little bit more focused on where you know. Certain expenses are coming from and everybody just sort of keeps an keeps a closer eye in terms of what you're spending what travel you're chuckling necessarily. Where are you guys going out for lunch? Those days a number of black cars that are lined up outside the Investment Bank so you guys have lived a different life than I have. It's like it was a different time so that yeah so there are some expenses that vary vary with revenue and then there are some where you can be a little bit more efficient so technologies we. We've been talking more recently about technology helping on the revenue front but that's also help us helping. <music> on the efficiency right so a mobile deposits are great experience for the customer but they're also like three cents on the dollar for some of these so allison when I worked on the street the big trading desks were really drivers of profitability. There's a fixed income trading desk the equities commodities are we ever going to get back to a time on washer where they can be consistently profitable in really drive some of the returns for these big global banks. I think that one of the big changes is really the electronic vacation and again you know Pauline I've been tortured by this throughout our careers in terms of seeing what's happened on the equities front right so <hes> a business that has really shifted over time to be more <hes> to be traded traded a lot more through the electronic venue and we're seeing a lot more progress on that front on the fixed income side so I think as volumes continue to go electronic that does <hes> you know obviously has has an impact is thing go low touch versus high I touch and in general the volatility there are some cyclical factors that may get better in terms of volatility and quantitative easing but the other big pressure is the pressure on customers right so passive versus active. You think you know inactive customer is doing trades. They're providing flow for desks. A passive customer is generally not and so I think that's you know had hedge. Funds are another area where we've seen a lot of pressure. Less fees broadly for the industry industry is less revenue. If your customers have relax revenue to pay that's less opportunity for you. Just real quick here. We talked earlier. <hes> perhaps year or two ago that the banks would have to pass along. Some of the increase in interest rates to their depositors was earning talk about that this time around the increases that you've seen so you've seen increases in in two businesses the wealth business and the <music> commercial small business side of things right so that's where you get people were sort of the shopping around is going to pay off so it when you have you know ten customer. Let's let's say ten customers with one hundred dollars. There's versus one customer thousand multiply that right so someone with a million dollars is gonna shop around whereas someone with like a thousand dollars isn't likely so when you look at the core franchises. You're still seeing things pretty sticky there air but you are seeing a pickup in terms of <hes> as I said the wealth small business you know city group also had sort of a notable pick-up. They're building digital so when you're going to go digital again you're probably paying up for those deposits Alison William. Thank you so so much alison covers all things banks four Bloomberg intelligence joining us in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio funds are having a very good year by historical standards although I will note that Equity Funds are still lagging the S. and p. five hundred the broader market market here to get a sense of which strategies are performing better. We welcome Don Steinbruner. Don Is the chairman and founder and C._E._O.. Of Age o-of partners John Donne joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio Don. Thanks so much for joining us again. Just give us a sense just kind of six months into the books for the year. How are the hedge funds broadly defined doing so from an absolute standpoint? They're doing the best they've done. In ten years. The average hedge it's fun for the first six months of the year was up seven point five eight percent <hes> based on the H. F. R. I. Index and that significantly better than the acid weighted index it is dominated by large hedge funds smaller hedge funds outperformed large hedge funds for the first six months of this year so here's my question and this is going to be the question that everyone's wondering which is to in twenty worth it. I mean it's not really to in twenty anymore. The fee structure because it's come down dramatically but but if these hedge funds are performing the best and absolute level and still underperforming the broader market is it worth it so when you think of first of all relative fees. I don't think anyone should pay to in twenty unless unless they find just an absolutely fabulous hedge fund manager. There's no reason to do it. There's a lot of hedge funds that are offering founder share fees one in ten fees matter and if you're analyzing a hedge fund you should focus on fees all things being equal always go with the manager manager that has less fees but looking hedge fund performance you know hedge funds are fun. Structure Not an asset class so you really gotta look at what the strategy is and what the underlining benchmark is that specific strategy and although I think most hedge funds. And are not very good. There are lot that have outperformed indices and I think add value so yes. I think there is a place for hedge funds in sophisticated large institutional investors portfolios so what are some of the strategies ladies that are particularly performing well here in the first half of the year. Well obviously anything to do with the equity markets did very well. The average long short equity manager was up nine point. I went for four percent but what I think is really interesting is for the first time in a long time fundamentally oriented Hedge Fund did well the average fundamental manager and you gotta remember they only have about half the exposure of the of the broad market were up ten in point eight eight percent and they significantly outperformed systematic launcher equity managers at rolling up about six point nine one so fundamentals for the first time in a long time worked. It'll be interesting to see if they work going forward. You know some sectors within the long shirt equity area sector managers did pretty well those focused on healthcare technology rupp over eleven percent and from a regional perspective managers have focused on China. Were up thirteen point one percent. I can touch on a couple of others. If I've time I want to actually ask something about what you said. Earlier which is there are good fund managers out there and if you find them they can add some real value to your portfolio. How do you judge? How do you determine termine whether a fund manager is good or not because it's not just past performance? It is definitely not past performance so I think you gotta use multiple factors in analyzing ahead Sean. I got thank you need to look at the organization and make sure the institutional channel quality you gotta go to the office. Meet the people there. I think you need to look at the people managing the portfolio. What are their BIOS look like? What is it what edge do they have to implementer process? You need to listen to what their investment processes. This is can they articulate what inefficiency in the marketplace or trying to take advantage of and clearly explain how they're able to take advantage of that inefficiency. You need to look at risk control as far as performance goes. You need to decouple it. You need to really really understand. That was her performance. But why did they do what they did. And how is that going to strategy going to do going forward for example you know this year. There's been broad rallies of the fixed income marketplace. You've had the the ten year treasury rally by over sixty basis points. You've had high yield spreads. Come down almost one hundred and fifty basis points the more risk you took into fixed income portfolio the better you did but that doesn't mean you're GonNa do better going forward so you need to understand why performance was what it was and also have some idea of what you think. The market's going to do going forward and how that strategy in stress tested environment will do going forward so it's interesting so they don't outperform so the Equity Equity Hedge funds about half the S&P is done on the upside this year. How about when we have a down market do they do better than the market because I'm wondering what I'm paying for again? I'm not getting performance on the upside but am I gonNA are they gonNA protect me on the downside what well first of all on the upside I do think dirt when you start looking at niche oriented long shirt equity strategies that focus on more inefficient markets. I think they've done a better job. Beating whatever the relevant benchmark is for example you go to Asia managers of focus on Asia or China <hes> have some of them have outperformed their indices by very large margins over long periods of time if you're talking about U._S.. Equity Managers that are focusing on you know the apples and the very large cap stocks I mean it's really hard to get information advantage and most of those underperformed formed yeah but just real quick here we just have thirty seconds and listener is writing in who does manage a lot of money and is in charge of determining what vestments there are and he was asking how long have a track record you require. I think the longer the track record to better and I I would wanna see you track record at least three years and you just need to make sure that when you analyze a track record you understand what attract record is. There's a lot of discrepancies as far as showing net performance and what fees people are using to show performance versus what their normal benchmark is Don Steinberg. Thank you so much for being with US really appreciate it. Don Steinberg is age cross partners founder and C._E._O.. Joining us here in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studios thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P._N._l.. podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer on Paul Sweeney. I'm on twitter at P._T.. Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz. I'm on twitter at Lisa Abramowicz one before the podcast. You can always catch US worldwide on Bloomberg radio. World leaders are listening. They're listening for solutions to global challenges ensuring that future generations.

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Budgeting | Road to Revenue and Happiness #37

The Playbook

22:15 min | 4 months ago

Budgeting | Road to Revenue and Happiness #37

"Today's episode is my appearance on the success. Shorts podcast with earl. Snell irwin iowa. Discuss the most important trait you can possess. Kindness and using gratitude is the guidepost to get their join me. Live every friday at eleven. Am pacific two pm eastern for my free free free training. Don't forget to join my texts community. Nine four nine two nine eight to nine five and you can always email me directly at david at d. meltzer dot com. This is entrepreneurs the playboy. I really wanna thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to join us and before we kinda jump into things you're in a really unique space doing what you do and i'm just kinda wondering you know. How has this new cova did normal impacted you and have you learned anything unique about yourself during this time so i think it will packed in me like it as everyone else because a portion of my business is always based on the backdrop of mass gatherings you know not only was i Very very involved in the biggest events in sports the super bowl provo masters kentucky derby all the award shows like the espy's emmys oscars grammys. But i also was involved with thousands of charitable events and beyond that just utilizing my own speaking career in all the different stages and travel. I was traveling two hundred days a year and my life changed within a day. But luckily i had also built a digital platform. And all that. I did was shift the skills the knowledge in my desire to the capabilities that were doing well during the pandemic that were stabilized during the pandemic and then just making preparations for the emotional rebound to the things that aren't doing well like mass gathering sporting events award shows in charitable vets Using that strategy. I've been able to learn a tremendous amount. I've learned one about efficiencies in all the waste that i was creating in the traditional world by excessive expenses. That were unnecessary We talked about being busy. I believe in being accessible busy. Someone that is not accessible being active in accessible as much better than being busy. I've learned how to be more productive how to provide more value how to be more accessible but also to access what i want in a better way and of course most importantly lessons about practicing ending fear about being able to have a lens of gratitude to find the light the love and the lessons and everything that i'm doing and being honest in humble about where i see improvements one of those areas is i have been lying to myself for years and years and years on spending an adequate amount of time with my children Especially in those teenage daughters. I have. I have three of them my ten year old son but the three teenage daughters who were forced to be at home with me over the last four or five months the value of those family. Dinners to me. I could get invited today to go to the masters the super bowl. I don't care who they are but of my three daughters wanna have dinner with me at home. I'm staying home. That's the greatest lesson i've learned. I tell you. I mean you're just said is music to my ears from the efficiencies and productivity and accessibility on the business side just the additional caring compassionate wanting to be there for the kids at those reminding to take ways to not necessarily to the level. I wasn't traveling nearly as much as you are. But taking the negatives out of it for the time being just focusing on the silver linings. It's a really beautiful thing to hear. You say that in the appreciation you have for that time with them. I'm sure they feel it and it's wonderful to hear how genuine it comes through from. You know you're feeling it before. We dive deeper. I would like to just kind of minutes. Allow everyone to have an opportunity to get to know you a little bit. So we're going to have a little bit of fun and we're gonna play the all day game two truce ally. Are you ready all right. Let's hear what you got so number one. The movie jerry. Maguire was based off of me number. Two i was born in the same hospital as lebron james and steph curry and number three. I was the ceo of the word world's first smartphone. Company alright. I think the jerry maguire. One is true. Just going off very cursory digging. That i did on your background. And if you're from northeast ohio. I'm pretty psyched. So i'm hoping that the lebron james steph curry one is because i know dell curry played for the cavs so i think that's very possible so i'm going to say that the ceo on the last one is the lie. So you fell right into my trap before. Yes i was born in the same. i was born in akron. Ohio lebron james and steph curry born in akron general hospital with me and not with the same which means i'm destined to be the nba commissioner someday. But the funny thing is everybody gives me credit for for the movie jerry. Maguire i was the ceo of the company that they made the movie about lee. Steinberg is actually the person that they base the movie jerry. Maguire about it's one of the most common fund things that i have. It's great pr for me. This is a great part of this is a lesson for everyone. My biggest difficulty of being. Ceo of lee. Steinberg's or to containment. Is i always felt as if i did. All of the work. All the negotiation everything at lee would get all the like. I would go through months of business meetings and he would walk into the conference room for the closing to sign the agreement and everybody was like. Oh my god lee steinberg. He's genius so it's the way the universe works that i actually am getting all the credit for the movie jerry. Maguire but lead deserves it. That's it works in mysterious ways. And i'm glad you're getting the credit and i appreciate the story is i was the ceo. The world's worst smartphone. It's called the pc dash even samsung's first windows ce device. Google it in nineteen ninety nine. We went best of comdex. And at that time i thought that was gonna be my entire career working in the phone industry. Never would i have said the you at that time at thirty years old that i didn't of the ceo the most notable sports agency in be such a sports icon within the industry in twenty years. And i tell you. Your background dazzles me and the fact that you're from northeast. Ohio which is where i'm from as well. I grew up east side of cleveland. So don't Moved to cleveland a little later. Oh most definitely. I know might be hamburger in the world. I tell people. My favorite deli is in indianapolis. It's caused you in my favorite hamburgers in northeast ohio. God swinson fantastic while like this little on that we all of a sudden have so as i was mentioning like one of the things that dazzles me is that you have this ability to kind of survey and you go across different industries and you have a really robust background. So there's so many things that you could speak about with us but when you think about what specific trait kinda defines you and success across the different avenues of life so be it. You know emotionally and spiritually or work related. What would you say is your defining trait kindness. Easy kindness kindness. Let's the best one in put. Honestly you're one of the first people to speak about this and this is something that i try to instill in my kids every day. So i'm really excited. The you chosen to go down this road. I know on the surface level. It's very easy to kinda see kindness as being so important life but at what point did you realize that. It was so much bigger than just being nice. And how did you continue to foster that as we kind of age and become a little bit more jaded in still kind of keep kind of set the forefront so the first was the world that i grew up in northeast ohio of not enough where i was a victim that i felt everything happened to me. And even though everything was happening to me as a victim in world very scarce world where there wasn't enough food there was an of money wasn't enough cars was an of beds in all those places that i lived i still was kind and i knew the importance of people were kind to me. And then i moved in became a millionaire nine months out of law school and i moved to the world of what i call just enough where there is just enough for me buying things. I didn't need to impress. People i didn't like is the best way i can describe it but once again. Kindness was my guidepost and i was still learning the lessons of how to deal with kindness. I believe the more. I gave the kinder i was in the more i would receive because i was kind kind. Kindness went from being a shield into being a negotiation or a trade. I would be kind to get something right and so you know. I'd give a down payment to a hauser be everything was a negotiation or trade. And until my wife and best friend and my dad and my mom kind of re-engineered this vision of the world of not enough to the world of just enough into this world that they always lived in which was the world of more than enough world of more than enough that blended not only the currency of money and object of energy that you put into the flow but the currency of faith and i gained my faith that there was always going to be enough for me and everyone else. That's when kindness went from being a shield to protect me from trade and it goes to get things into an abundant philosophy of everything that included gratitude forgiveness accountability and inspiration. That i decided that no longer. Would i live in the eagle based consciousness. There was no need to be right. No need to be offended. No need to be superior no need to be inferior separate. Nonni be angry anxious frustrated angry resentful guilty. All those different needs could be replaced with one. Need the need to be kind. And i'd rather be kind than any of those other things. And when i feel those other things because i'm human i'm a hypocrite when i go down the wrong path of eagle base consciousness when accelerate my life in the wrong direction. I know one means. Put me back on track. I know one means that allows me to be a ferocious buddha to stop drop roll into peace into neutrality in onto bigger better expanding accelerating things in that is kindness. That's really something. And i try to do the same thing with gratitude You alluded to that. Whereas if i'm if i'm going down a negative slope i try to make that my guidepost in if you're my ex wife and you're listening to this she's probably thinking what i where we're at now when after all the work that i've done like that's to me that's what i try to go back to 'cause i was very negative and i was a bit skeptical and cynical but like once. I learned how to embrace that. That was a driving thing and then kindness. I think they're part and parcel. In a way. You know they really feed off of each other and just trying to live life through a kind lens just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean you can't be kinds of the person who's conveying it or whatever. The example is especially in this very social and political environment that we find ourselves selves it. Now if we can navigate through a lens of kindness. I think that could really go a long way. So you have this. Guideposts is at your core so when you think about the way life is played out for you you went from leesburg to create your own agency. I believe your partner in that with warren moon which is really amazing. I remember how many times he beat the browns as i was growing up. But obviously you've had. I'm assuming along that road. There have been roadblocks. There have been so mountains that you had climbed. Can you think of some times when you've had to use kindness to help you push through to the ultimate success in those scenarios. Yeah i think most building my tv show called elevator pitch there. So many egos involved. There was the producer from undercover boss. There was the director from the osbournes. There were the people that were the actual producers with the studio then. There were the partners from piper jaffrey as to the large magazine to the big carrier in sponsors. In all these different parties with diverse interests and i was the catalyst delays on between everyone trying to separate throughout their own scarcity and create an abundant that ended up. You know five seasons of very successful highly impactful show called elevator pitch to help entrepreneurs helping as well myself in the long run building in accelerating my brand to a different level but i use kindness as the true negotiation tool to look at the kindness. The light the love and the lessons in all the disparity and bring a unifying force to get the deal done. This has been one of the greatest mechanisms that i've used on individual and a corporate basis to focus in on that lends a productivity accessibility but especially the cohesive bond that is created with the lens of kindness and gratitude. Light the love and the lessons and everything that we all share when you head into a conversation around corporate success in all that and you think about kindness not that. I don't think that it's necessarily difficult to find the link but the way you just explained. It's like wow. Without kindness there would be so much harder to accomplish. Any of that seems so simple. But it's such a powerful aspect that i think a lot of us may underestimate when it comes to long term sustainable success for ourselves in any pursuit in life. So i'd like to kinda just necessarily change focus for a second of just of go down a little bit of a path so you're obviously in a very unique industry where you're representing a bunch of different clients doing a bunch of different things in a very public environment and over the past half a year. We've gone through so much from everything. That's happened with kobe. In how that shaped our lives to the massive social unrest. That took off after. George floyd passed away at the police officer now obviously a lot of athletes. A lot of public figures have very strong personalities. Alpha's than they wanna be able to do something or say something in these spaces. What experience have you had during that time in working with them to help them navigate kind of this precarious emotional time so that they can have the outcome that they want and have a voice but also to make sure when it comes to who they are that they're communicating effectively. In the right way. I think it has to do with complete control. People are trying to understand things. They can't control which is always present in our lives. So when i have people do is understand. In focusing on what. They can't control in the things that have them focus in on is number one their mindset right we can focus in on our mindset of how we perceive through gratitude forgiveness accountability and inspiration to heart. Set people in your hearts at heart set is how we feel. You have complete control of how you feel about things. I get into trouble the time. Because people whether the millennials or my kids or my wife they tell me that i heard their feelings from the way that i've articulated my intent and not what i say is what they hear and i can't control the way they feel but i can't control that and it really bothers them when i tell them you have control your feelings. I don't write. Whatever i said defines me as someone that would say that but how you react and how you feel defines you so. I think that was a major thing to get people to understand. Hey you got to take control of heart set as well as your mindset which a lot of people are talking about the the mindset side and then of course take control of what you think say do here especially here so many people are hearing the wrong things. they're inundated. They keep the news on all day. Long well for me. There's certain stable data that. I need from the news. I seek it once or twice a day. There's something called google and it has a great search engine. You can seek the data that you need. You don't need a hundred and seventy thousand in one people died. One hundred seventy thousand and two people died like are you kidding me. You've got to control things they do believe in here and so when we know that we take control reminds at our heart set in that aggregate of those things they do here and say we can take control me feel in control. Utilizing a lens is productivity of taking advantage of. What's doing well today. Accessibility of helping others and receiving what we want. And of course we've mentioned a few times kindness and gratitude if you just have that mindset of finding the light the love and the lessons and everything look there's a certain percentage that always suck. I've been around the biggest larry's athletes entertainers everyone who everyone desires to be the wish i was so and so warren moon the hall of fame quarterback i without him now is life has the same percentage of sock that years. He's just been able to look for the light the love and the lessons in the sock and increase his spirit of excellence to reach in attain his potential. Such a mindful approach to it. Finding the positivity in the sock like you said the same percentage as what we do with it how we approach in how we let it impact us. i encourage. it is hard when coming. Use the term heart set. It is hard to have that conversation with others because you're in a different space than they are in sometimes. It's a little bit difficult for them to hear what they don't want to hear so it's something we should pursue and its authentic if we could just continue to try to work on how we communicate with with our loved ones when we're trying to convey those things i think that's that's going to go a long way so i wanna kind of bring it back to a little bit about what you're doing with really helping others foster the sense of accomplishment and go for whatever their goals are and you do this through this friday training that you offer. Then you've been offering for quite some time that you used to do in the office and now you're bringing to the masses but what. What is your goal with that end. What does that look like yes. It's basically just emailed me. David meltzer dot com or text. Me at nine for nine to nine eight to nine zero five and you can join every friday. Eleven am pacific two pm eastern or i replayed on my podcast in youtube. So people are really watching. You know of course just like netflix. It can binge watch all the trainings. The idea of the training is this. I'm going to teach you pragmatic ways and spiritual as energetic ways to enjoy the consistent every day persistent without quit pursuit of your potential. I'm gonna take you through a process of pragmatic and spiritual things that i've learned to make nothing into a of mathematical advantage. Teach you how to make that possibility of probability in your life which is another mathematical advantage and then even take that probability and make your reality or your perspective to the true success that you're looking for. I'm gonna teach you that you may not be where you want today. But i'll teach you you to angle towards where you do want to be an end up somewhere better. Basically you're helping people maintenance being successful in any part of their lives from work to personal development and emotional development mall that that's really something in your experience. I can't imagine anyone better doing that. So just to kind of bring it back to wrap things up a little bit so we been speaking about your pursuit of kindness in the way you deployed in your life and for those listening. They're gonna be anywhere from a really great mental state of mind in a great place emotionally and financially to someone who feels like things were kind of piling up and it seems a little bit hopeless into be kind kind of tough because there is a little bit of necessarily resentment or whatever else is kinda clouding that vision. How would you recommend to someone who has things a little bit heavy right now to take kindness and let that be their guideposts. Starting today. great point in people tell me all the time i makes us depressed. Or even suicidal. What's the one thing. I can do said beyond seeking professional help. Would i always tell people is do good. Deeds do good deeds. Not just helping someone else directly because a lot of people will tell me when they're depressing. Be around people that want to go down to the homeless shelter in volunteer. The boys club or whatever it is will let me. Just tell you this. Doing good deeds helps people this. Oh if that means going and picking up trash if it means putting a shopping carts back of it means just looking for things to make better being your own chief betterment officer in your life And it will better your situation by these famous quote my favorite quote which is always. Be kind to your future south. Do good deeds. I have an opening for a chief betterman officer so if you want to apply thank you is the best. i actually have one in his entire just. So you know. Is the walk around the office. Talk to everyone to see how they could make their jobs. Better goes in. the bathroom. Could make the bathroom better. The hallways better the carpet better. The doors better entire employees in that he is the most profitable of all my employees for me as fantastic. I love that david. And i just want to say it's been an absolute pleasure. Thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us. This has been really great. You're amazing man. I appreciate the opportunity. Please join me on. Fridays gave a d. meltzer dot com. Thank you so much opportunity. Be kind of your future self. Do good deeds. Hey podcast listeners. You for listening as always today's episode. I know you've been enjoying the road to revenue episodes. They are downloading at record paces. And i am so grateful for you joining me. Not only on the podcast but live every friday at eleven. Am pacific time two pm eastern. Make sure you email me at david. Di meltzer dot com or text being at nine four nine two nine two nine five. Thank you so much.

steph curry Maguire jerry Snell irwin emmys oscars grammys two hundred days lebron james Steinberg lebron james steph curry dell curry akron general hospital lee lee steinberg ohio swinson meltzer cova Nonni espy cleveland
The #1 Trait You Can Possess | Interview on Success Shorts

The Playbook

22:15 min | 4 months ago

The #1 Trait You Can Possess | Interview on Success Shorts

"Today's episode is my appearance on the success. Shorts podcast with earl. Snell irwin iowa. Discuss the most important trait you can possess. Kindness and using gratitude is the guidepost to get their join me. Live every friday at eleven. Am pacific two pm eastern for my free free free training. Don't forget to join my texts community. Nine four nine two nine eight to nine five and you can always email me directly at david at d. meltzer dot com. This is entrepreneurs the playboy. I really wanna thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to join us and before we kinda jump into things you're in a really unique space doing what you do and i'm just kinda wondering you know. How has this new cova did normal impacted you and have you learned anything unique about yourself during this time so i think it will packed in me like it as everyone else because a portion of my business is always based on the backdrop of mass gatherings you know not only was i Very very involved in the biggest events in sports the super bowl provo masters kentucky derby all the award shows like the espy's emmys oscars grammys. But i also was involved with thousands of charitable events and beyond that just utilizing my own speaking career in all the different stages and travel. I was traveling two hundred days a year and my life changed within a day. But luckily i had also built a digital platform. And all that. I did was shift the skills the knowledge in my desire to the capabilities that were doing well during the pandemic that were stabilized during the pandemic and then just making preparations for the emotional rebound to the things that aren't doing well like mass gathering sporting events award shows in charitable vets Using that strategy. I've been able to learn a tremendous amount. I've learned one about efficiencies in all the waste that i was creating in the traditional world by excessive expenses. That were unnecessary We talked about being busy. I believe in being accessible busy. Someone that is not accessible being active in accessible as much better than being busy. I've learned how to be more productive how to provide more value how to be more accessible but also to access what i want in a better way and of course most importantly great lessons about practicing ending fear about being able to have a lens of gratitude to find the light the love and the lessons and everything that i'm doing and being honest in humble about where i see improvements one of those areas is i have been lying to myself for years and years and years on spending an adequate amount of time with my children Especially in those teenage daughters. I have. I have three of them my ten year old son but the three teenage daughters who were forced to be at home with me over the last four or five months the value of those family. Dinners to me. I could get invited today to go to the masters the super bowl. I don't care who they are but of my three daughters wanna have dinner with me at home. I'm staying home. That's the greatest lesson i've learned. I tell you. I mean you're just said is music to my ears from the efficiencies and productivity and accessibility on the business side just the additional caring compassionate wanting to be there for the kids at those reminding to take ways to not necessarily to the level. I was traveling nearly as much as you are. But taking the negatives out of it for the time being just focusing on the silver linings. It's a really beautiful thing to hear. You say that in the appreciation you have for that time with them. I'm sure they feel it and it's wonderful to hear how genuine it comes through from. You know you're feeling it before. We dive deeper. I would like to just kind of take few minutes. Allow everyone to have an opportunity to get to know you a little bit. So we're going to have a little bit of fun and we're gonna play the all day game two truce ally. Are you ready all right. Let's hear what you got so number one. The movie jerry. Maguire was based off of me number. Two i was born in the same hospital as lebron james and steph curry and number three. I was the ceo of the word world's first smartphone. Company alright. I think the jerry maguire. One is true. Just going off very cursory digging. That i did on your background. And if you're from northeast ohio. I'm pretty psyched. So i'm hoping that the lebron james steph curry one is because i know dell curry played for the cap so i think that's very possible so i'm going to say that the ceo on the last one is the lie. So you fell right into my trap before. Yes i was born in the same. i was born in akron. Ohio lebron james and steph curry born in akron general hospital with me and not with the same which means i'm destined to be the nba commissioner someday. But the funny thing is everybody gives me credit for for the movie jerry. Maguire i was the ceo of the company that they made the movie about lee. Steinberg is actually the person that they base the movie jerry. Maguire about it's one of the most common fund things that i have. It's great pr for me. This is a great part of this is a lesson for everyone. My biggest difficulty of being. Ceo of lee steinberg's or two payment. Is i always felt as if i did. All of the work. All the negotiation everything at lee would get all the like. I would go through months of business meetings and he would walk into the conference room for the closing to sign the agreement and everybody was like. Oh my god lee steinberg genius get so. It's the way the universe works. That i actually am getting the credit for the movie jerry. Maguire but lead deserves it. That's it works in mysterious ways. And i'm glad you're getting the credit and i appreciate the story is i was the ceo. The world's worst smartphone. It's called the pc dash even samsung's first windows ce device. Google it in nineteen ninety nine. We went best of comdex. And at that time i thought that was gonna be my entire career working in the phone industry. Never would i have said the you at that time at thirty years old that i didn't of the ceo the most notable sports agency in be such a sports icon within the industry in twenty years. And i tell you. Your background dazzles me and the fact that you're from northeast. Ohio which is where i'm from as well. I grew up east side of cleveland. So medicines you don't Moved to cleveland a little later. Oh most definitely. I know might be hamburger in the world. I tell people. My favorite deli is in indianapolis. It's caused you of my favorite hamburgers in northeast ohio. God swinson fantastic while like this little on that we all of a sudden have so as i was mentioning like one of the things that dazzles me is that you have this ability to kind of survey and you go across different industries and you have a really robust background. So there's so many things that you could speak about with us but when you think about what specific trait kinda defines you and success across different avenues of life so be it. You know emotionally and spiritually or work related. What would you say is your defining trait kindness. Easy kindness kindness. Let's the best one in put. Honestly you're one of the first people to speak about this and this is something that i try to instill in my kids every day. So i'm really excited. The you chosen to go down this road. I know on the surface level. It's very easy to kinda see kindness as being so important life but at what point did you realize that. It was so much bigger than just being nice. And how did you continue to foster that as we kind of age and become a little bit more jaded in still kind of keep kind of set the forefront so the first was the world that i grew up in northeast ohio of not enough where i was a victim that i felt everything happened to me. And even though everything was happening to me as a victim in world very scarce world where there wasn't enough food there was an of money wasn't enough cars was an of beds in all those places that i lived i still was kind and i knew the importance of people were kind to me. And then i moved in became a millionaire nine months out of law school and i moved to the world of what i call just enough where there is just enough for me buying things. I didn't need to impress. People i didn't like is the best way i can describe it but once again. Kindness was my guidepost and i was still learning the lessons of how to deal with kindness. I believe the more. I gave the kinder i was in the more i would receive because i was kind kind. Kindness went from being a shield into being a negotiation or a trade. I would be kind to get something right and so you know. I'd give a down payment to a hauser be everything was a negotiation or trade. And until my wife and best friend and my dad and my mom kind of re-engineered this vision of the world of not enough to the world of just enough into this world that they always lived in which was the world of more than enough world of more than enough that blended not only the currency of money and object of energy that you put into the flow but the currency of faith and i gained my faith that there was always going to be enough for me and everyone else. That's when kindness went from being a shield to protect me from trade and it goes to get things into an abundant philosophy of everything that included gratitude forgiveness accountability and inspiration. That i decided that no longer. Would i live in the eagle based consciousness. There was no need to be right. No need to be offended. No need to be superior no need to be inferior separate. Nonni be angry anxious frustrated angry resentful guilty. All those different needs could be replaced with one. Need the need to be kind. And i'd rather be kind than any of those other things. And when i feel those other things because i'm human i'm a hypocrite when i go down the wrong path of eagle base consciousness when accelerate my life in the wrong direction. I know one means put back on track. I know one means that allows me to be a ferocious buddha to stop drop roll into peace into neutrality in onto bigger better expanding accelerating things in that is kindness. That's really something. And i try to do the same thing with gratitude You alluded to that. Whereas if i'm if i'm going down a negative slope i try to make that my guidepost in if you're my ex wife and you're listening to this she's probably thinking what our where we're at now when after all the work that i've done like that's to me that's what i try to go back to 'cause i was very negative and i was a bit skeptical and cynical but like once. I learned how to embrace that. That was a driving thing and then kindness. I think they're part and parcel. In a way. You know they really feed off of each other and just trying to live life through a kind lens just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean you can't be kinds of the person who's conveying it or whatever. The example is especially in this very social and political environment that we find ourselves selves it. Now if we can navigate through a lens of kindness. I think that could really go a long way. So you have this. Guidepost is at your core so when you think about the way life is played out for you you went from leesburg to create your own agency. I believe your partner in that with warren moon which is really amazing. I remember how many times he beat the browns as i was growing up. But obviously you've had. I'm assuming along that road. There have been roadblocks. There have been so mountains that you had climbed. Can you think of some times when you've had to use kindness to help you push through to the ultimate success in those scenarios. Yeah i think most building my tv show called elevator pitch there. So many egos involved. There was the producer from undercover boss. There was the director from the osbournes. There were the people that were the actual producers with the studio then. There were the partners from piper jaffrey as to the large magazine to the big carrier in sponsors. In all these different parties with diverse interests and i was the catalyst delays on between everyone trying to separate throughout their own scarcity and create an abundant that ended up. You know five seasons of very successful highly impactful show called elevator pitch to help entrepreneurs helping as well myself in the long run building in accelerating my brand to a different level but i use kindness as the true negotiation tool to look at the kindness. The light the love and the lessons in all the disparity and bring a unifying force to get the deal done. This has been one of the greatest mechanisms that i've used on individual and a corporate basis to focus in on that lens a productivity accessibility but especially the cohesive bond that is created with the lens of kindness and gratitude. Light the love and the lessons and everything that we all share when you head into a conversation around corporate success in all that and you think about kindness not that. I don't think that it's necessarily difficult to find the link but the way you just explained. It's like wow. Without kindness there would be so much harder to accomplish. Any of that seems so simple. But it's like such a powerful aspect that i think a lot of us may underestimate when it comes to long term sustainable success for ourselves in any pursuit in life. So i'd like to kinda just necessarily change focus for a second just of go down a little bit of a path so you're obviously in a very unique industry where you're representing a bunch of different clients doing a bunch of different things in a very public environment and over the past half a year. We've gone through so much from everything. That's happened with kobe. In how that shaped our lives to the massive social unrest. That took off after. George floyd passed away at the hands of the police officer now obviously a lot of athletes. A lot of public figures have very strong personalities. Alpha's than they wanna be able to do something or say something in these spaces. What experience have you had during that time in working with them to help them navigate kind of this precarious emotional time so that they can have the outcome that they want and have a voice but also to make sure when it comes to who they are that they're communicating effectively. In the right way. I think it has to do with complete control. People are trying to understand things. They can't control which is always present in our lives. So when i have people do is understand. In focusing on what. They can't control in the things that have them focus in on is number one their mindset right we can focus in on our mindset of how we perceive through gratitude forgiveness accountability and inspiration to heart. Set people in your hearts at heart set is how we feel. You have complete control of how you feel about things. I get into trouble the time. Because people whether the millennials or my kids or my wife they tell me that i heard their feelings from the way that i've articulated my intent and not what i say is what they hear and i can't control the way they feel but i can't control that and it really bothers them when i tell them you have control your feelings. I don't write. Whatever i said defines me as someone that would say that but how you react and how you feel defines you so. I think that was a major thing to get people to understand. Hey you got to take control of heart set as well as your mindset which a lot of people are talking about the the mindset side and then of course take control of what you think say do here especially here so many people are hearing the wrong things. they're inundated. They keep the news on all day. Long well for me. There's certain stable data that. I need from the news. I seek it once or twice a day. There's something called google and it has a great search engine. You can seek the data that you need. You don't need a hundred and seventy thousand in one people died. One hundred seventy thousand and two people died like are you kidding me. You've got to control things they do believe in here and so when we know that we take control reminds at our heart set in that aggregate of those things. Say here and say we can take control me feel in control utilizing the productivity of taking advantage of. What's doing well today. Accessibility of helping others and receiving what we want. And of course we've mentioned a few times kindness and gratitude if you just have that mindset of finding the light the love and the lessons and everything look there's a certain percentage that always suck. I've been around the biggest larry's athletes entertainers and everyone desires to be the wish. I was so and so warren moon. The hall of fame quarterback i without him now is life has the same percentage of sock that years. He's just been able to look for the light the love and the lessons in the sock and increase his spirit of excellence to reach in attain his potential. Such a mindful approach to it. Finding the positivity in the sock like you said the same percentage as what we do with it how we approach in how we let it impact us. i encourage. it is hard when coming. Use the term heart set. It is hard to have that conversation with others because you're in a different space than they are in sometimes. It's a little bit difficult for them to hear what they don't want to hear so it's something we should pursue and its authentic if we could just continue to try to work on how we communicate with with our loved ones when we're trying to convey those things i think that's that's going to go a long way so i wanna kind of bring it back to a little bit about what you're doing with really helping others foster the sense of accomplishment and go for whatever their goals are and you do this through this friday training that you offer. Then you've been offering for quite some time that you used to do in the office and now you're bringing to the masses but what. What is your goal with that end. What does that look like yes. It's basically just emailed me david. Di meltzer dot com or text me at nine for nine to nine eight to nine zero five and you can join every friday. Eleven am pacific two pm eastern or i replayed on my podcast in youtube. So people are really watching. You know of course just like netflix. It can binge watch all the trainings. The idea of the training is this. I'm going to teach you pragmatic and spiritual as energetic ways to enjoy the consistent every day persistent without quit pursuit of your potential. I'm gonna take you through a process of pragmatic and spiritual things that i've learned to make nothing into a of mathematical advantage. Teach you how to make that possibility of probability in your life which is another mathematical advantage and then even take that probability and make your reality or your perspective to the true success that you're looking for. I'm gonna teach you that you may not be where you want today. But i'll teach you you to angle towards where you do want to be an end up somewhere better. Basically you're helping people maintenance being successful in any part of their lives from work to personal development and emotional development mall that that's really something in your experience. I can't imagine anyone better doing that. So just to kind of bring it back to wrap things up a little bit so we been speaking about your pursuit of congress in the way you deployed in your life and for those listening. They're gonna be anywhere from a really great mental state of mind in a great place emotionally and financially to someone who feels like things were kind of piling up and it seems a little bit hopeless into be kind kind of tough because there is a little bit of necessarily resentment or whatever else is kinda clouding that vision. How would you recommend to someone who has things a little bit heavy right now to take kindness and let that be their guideposts. Starting today. great point in people tell me all the time makes us depressed. Or even suicidal. What's the one thing. I can do said beyond seeking professional help. Would i always tell people is do good. Deeds do good deeds. Not just helping someone else directly because a lot of people will tell me when they're depressing. Be around people that want to go down to the homeless shelter volunteer the boys club or whatever it is will let me. Just tell you this. Doing good deeds helps people this. Oh if that means going and picking up trash if it means putting a shopping carts back of it means just looking for things to make better being your own chief betterment officer in your life And it will better your situation by doing good. These famous quote my favorite quote which is always. Be kind to your future south. Do good deeds. I have an opening for a chief betterman officer so if you want to apply thank you is the best. I actually have one in his entire just so you know the walk around the office. Talk to everyone to see how they could make their jobs. Better goes in. the bathroom. Could make the bathroom better. The hallways better the carpet better. The doors better entire employees in that he is the most profitable of all my employees for me as fantastic. I love that david. And i just want to say it's been an absolute pleasure. Thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us. This has been really great. You're amazing man. I appreciate the opportunity. Please join me on. Fridays gave a d. meltzer dot com. Thank you so much opportunity. Be kind of your future self. Do good deeds. Hey podcast listeners. You for listening as always today's episode. I know you've been enjoying the road to revenue episodes. They are downloading at record paces. And i'm so grateful for you joining me. Not only on the podcast but live every friday at eleven. Am pacific time two pm eastern. Make sure you email me at david. Di meltzer dot com or text being at nine four nine two nine two nine five. Thank you so much.

steph curry Maguire lee steinberg jerry Snell irwin emmys oscars grammys two hundred days lebron james lebron james steph curry akron general hospital ohio swinson meltzer cova Nonni espy cleveland lee Ohio jerry maguire
Richard Branson Is Taking Space-Tourism Unit Public

P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz

33:36 min | 1 year ago

Richard Branson Is Taking Space-Tourism Unit Public

"World leaders are listening they're listening for solutions to global challenges ensuring the future generations have everything they need world leaders and ceos like kashem bunny martin alone non millette connie pulsa janet yellen and legal don't go j are waiting to hear your ideas if they like your idea it may become a reality you and your idea could join them at the bloomberg new economy forum in beijing learn more at bloomberg dot com slash solutions welcome to the bloomberg pnl podcast on paul sweeney alongside my co host lisa abramowicz each day we bring you the most note worthy and useful interviews for you and your money whether you're at the grocery store or the trading floor find the bloomberg pnl podcast apple podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts is wells at bloomberg dot com we are awaiting a conversation with a virgin atlantic ceo richard branson and social capital ceo tim us a poly have put g and he is coming to speak with a bloomberg money planet and guy johnson talked about in new venture to take space tourism public a that is a virgin galactic effort to bring people to space who want to just experiencing it experience at how there could be initial public offering and raise equity in it it'll be interesting to see whether there is eight big profit to be made here as well as what the links will be between v a the public venture and be private a and the private endeavor it a try go to space end v a the nassau type of a agents in the government in other words how much will you es sort of lean on a private companies are in this case public companies to influence influence their decisions with respect to a with a with a respected decisions with respect to space exploration joining us now to talk about that as christopher jasper transport aviation reporter for bloomberg news christopher what are we expecting here in what have we learned so far that richard branson's virgin galactic space tourism trickle in public 'em well it is using some unorthodox method to do this rob and going down and i peo route a he's gonna accomplish a listing through a merger wave listed shell company in new york a which will hungover four forty nine percent stake in large group and raise about eight hundred million dollars a tight the project further a that seems to suggest that a maybe and i peo might not being a good idea they're still quite a lot of skepticism out that prompts about whether 'em space tourism really come work we know he's got about six hundred people signed up having a paid eighty million dollars in in depose it's a to travel a but the whole plan a suggests a by his reckoning that there may be millions of people a who would be interested in flying to the edge of space if the price can be brought down enough a and if you're gonna invest in a virgin galactic long term then that's really you're taking would you wanna go to space but i would like to go to space absolutely vote i think people need to understand that this isn't a trip to the moon right it's not it's not even a trip into higher sobat a while you could see the entire planet beneath they seize essentially to the edge of space where you get to see the cubs trivia and experience weightlessness for a limited time but you know you're you're not gonna feel like you're in apollo eleven or the or the international space station which perhaps is what people are looking for christopher jasper thank you so much for being with us christopher jasper is transport and aviation reporter for bloomberg news we are going to hear from virgin atlantic ceo himself richard branson as well as social capitals ceo ceo they're going to be talking about this joint venture space tourism going public with an appeal take a listen now are bloomberg radio and tv audience a billionaire richard branson's virgin galactic is the coming the first ever space tourism ventured hit public markets this after receiving an eight hundred million dollar investment from the publicly traded social capital joined now by richard branson i'm social capital cofounder john off polly healthy sia gentlemen thank you so much for joining richard how did this meeting about i know that you had been in talks with the likes of saudi arabia and possibly other players is well you pulled out of those after the death of journalist jamal khashoggi for example and not fall into this meeting exciting origins of this investment well when we had they couldn't go ahead with the saudis on a i decided that i would finally virgin galactic to profitability myself through through virgin group and and then i got a call from somebody who and said that he was keen to look on and he went to see all space people spend some months looking into it and let's the kyri unfamiliar slow i mean i i've been in meyer of the business from afar and then we had a bunch of mutual friends who early customers 'em subs always wondering what's really under the hood and when i got to see the business i was pretty for quite honest about what they built and the quality of the business said it would be coming so it took us nine months but we got here and you're going to chairman of the board is one hundred million dollar personal investment is out so richard did you talk with other funds digital other factors in asia example you know 'em where we 'em at yeah as i said the we did have the deal from the saudis that that was not possible and and i and if you know if we would just trashy take this public house sells it would take a long time so i think the some us approach seemed to work very well chris shaw math is this the lost roll the dice you my understanding the fund would have had to return on investment money in september 'em rich and talked about the fact this is being nine months in the gestation i it was it was you will find one you a i don't think so you know we met more than two companies a over many many countries over the last two years and it does it did take us nine months to do the diligence required to really get under the hood and understand what they've built and feel comfortable across all aspects of the business could we have done a another one sure could we have invested in something else yeah but i think that we found be absolute best company something that'll thrive in the public markets and frankly something that's gonna capture an enormous amount of consumer interests giving the average person a chance to own a bit of space and i think there's a frankly nothing more exciting that should be average person's gonna wanna debate of space when it's the first flight electron nail that down on now there were a public company i'm gonna have to very circumspect circumspect in what i say and so what's happened what's happening at the moment is we're moving the whole operations in new mexico and and i and that's where the space force is on where we're moving rockets that we were moving spaceships that were moving up a mother ship staff and then will do a few a final test flights from new mexico and the new in the new situation on and then i'll go out and then and then we'll on the public will go up and i'm not gonna give a specific date 'cause i'm told that not allowed to and vets where where you know we've had two very successful flights into space recently and we've made five astronauts the first five astronauts to be made in america since two thousand nine so where were you know after fourteen years of hard work guessing there's a wifi were on the verge of something very special and that's very exciting because you specialize in sub orbital flight slightly different from jeff bezos is outside and also eat on musk's outfit they're looking at like other segments of basically like fifty six miles above earth and three times the speed of sound which is now hits you did say you go up in twenty nineteen when he's i if a b if a if a brave test pilots ready to say to me they they've now tested the kroft through and through i will i will go up when they tell me to come up on bedtime whether it's whether it's by the end of this year or slips into next year will see how many customers have paid a quarter of a million dollars flips it up town so we we closed out on a booking people five years ago 'cause we had a six hundred customers regard eighteen million dollars owned opposes on since the test flight we've had two and a half thousand more people saying they want to come in and and you know a research indicates that there there's a very large number of campbell is a this is incredibly capacity constrained markets 'em just servicing the customers we have will take two two and a half years once you convert some of these twenty five hundred people the first three or four years of operation is a forty mostly spoken for okay but let me just kind of i'm gonna try and kind of off of what you just said what richard said i'm gonna nail down a little bit will be settled when this is gonna happen he's other closes in the deal he struck with richard about when that first flight test happen no the model that we're operating from operating model around which were building the business shows that were gonna be in commercial operations within a year in the first half of next year is one will start to see the really ranting of of customer flights of revenue generating flights we expect profitability and mid a two thousand and twenty one and it's a business that frankly a should achieve real scale a by twenty twenty two twenty twenty we will leave it up in the draft richard struggling thank you very much indeed good luck we've been listening to it conversation with virgin atlantic ceo richard branson is ceo of social capital about their venture to take v space tourism business of virgin galactic public as an increasing number of people seek to pay tons of money just get a glimpse of edges the space there is a big question today how best to adapt apt to the radical changes currently that are happening in technology and frankly every single field whether it's the consumer goods industry when we see with amazon healthcare a or beyond joining me now i'm so pleased says thomas evil he is founder chairman and ceo of c three eight long time innovator in the technology space he's also the author of a new book digital transformation survive and thrive in an era of mass extinction high drama emma thank you so much for being with us at tom i i wanna start with why did you write this book well it i've been in information technology industry for for decades in the last decade i've seen as they go from boardrooms in shanghai paris rome new york the ceos and the chairman are all talking about this mandate for digital transformation and candidly i couldn't figure out what they were talking about and like as opposed to what analog transformation and a so i spent about eight years thinking about it and in talking with these executives about what they were thinking about and then the last two years writing a modern to distill what the essence of digital transformation is all about any answer well as we power into the twenty first century we have a new step function of information technology gutter becoming available including elastic cloud computing big data internet of things and artificial intelligence and this takes a look at the convergence of this technology of these technologies we find this phenomenon called digital transformation the changes everything about the way the companies operate the way they manage themselves the way they produce products in the way they serve customers and we see innovators in this field like amazon he's using hey i i o t n cloud computing completely revolutionized retailing or tesla hey i i o t on wheels revolutionizing the automotive industry or air bnb doing the same thing the hospitality industry or you know robert no cars no drivers and yet they're you know drastically change has a transportation and so 'em companies that seemed to be adopting these technologies are gonna be in a position to thrive in this century and those the don't will go the way of general electric and westinghouse and put draws it seems like a lot of conversations we've had on the show a lot of executives understand this and are highly focused on artificial intelligence cloud computing that is where the energies are going but do you think the people are thinking abstractly enough about it in other words how to deploy some of this information or or do you think they're not applying it enough i think there's a recognition that it's urgent and a weather and then we see leaders at companies like real dead shall or and now in europe or a cat or three m or even united states air force the same don't understand stand it and get it or taking a very concrete steps to realize the future and then there are nine out of ten companies they're still floundering where they haven't quite figured it out yet and mathematics thanks in part 'em i think out of us nine out of ten companies probably a sixer seven out of ten of figure it out and three of four will go out of business so you're company c three dot ai is working with baker hughes which is eight g company on adventure to use artificial intelligence and the energy space can you talk a little about that yes we've former joint venture with baker hughes which one at least one of the world's largest oil service providers to bring in a tire debris ayako teach the entire value chain upstream midstream downstream of a petrochemical a an chemical exploration a production and delivery in a way to increase safety lower cost increase reliability and decrease environmental impact so one thing i was struck by a that you highlight in your book is you actually think the big companies have a leg up when it comes to innovation in this space because they have access to the money they need to put into it as well as the deta and i'm wondering during how you think that will skew things going forward if sort of the small startups don't have as much of a chance to succeed or single small startups are very well positioned to really prosper by providing enabling technologies for these big companies to realize their vision when we get on the air hi you know data is the life blood of they are okay and the more data they have the more the more the more powerful you couldn't be more precise you could be in in using it to customers have spanish to society says vantage until they environments advantage so i think there is a win win here there's winfrey small companies to develop v enabling technologies and the big companies have the data and the ceos of the management teams with the will end the vision i think everybody wins so it's one thing when we talk about corporations but what about governments what it we're are say were what's the government of united states doing in terms of trying to adopt artificial intelligence and how that's gonna shave their policies sees a certainly well i think the most extreme case in most important cases probably defense and there is i mean we are candidly at war today with china in the first front is hey i got an alex seller of sorry bladder putin's said whoever wins the battle and dominates the world and it's true and it won't be russia and so there is a dramatic acceleration going on between china the spending between twenty billion dollars a year now and sixty billion dollars a year soon tune in this kind of top down celli terry in command and control state to a a really advanced effort events purposes in the united states were doing the same thing in a much more mess year way because we have a free market economies sure this is happening in garages in silicon valley in storefronts and bronx but you know leaders like heather wilson the secretary of the air force or ryan mccarthy the secretary of the army i mean these people get it i mean they they know air john murray the head of the army futures command they get it they know exactly what they're doing and a they're applying ally in in very effective ways to increase efficiency lower cost 'em a more efficient a logistics to be able to engage in cyber defense and in fact cyber war if we have to one thing i'm struggling to understand is what sort of the next generation of transformation disruption is happening we we talk about amazon and we talk about the retail apocalypse that ensued based on the fact that they became less relevant because of the online marketplace is there some other industry that you think is next to be disrupted ebay similar level due to be increasing use of artificial intelligence i think there's no end is see that isn't disrupted traveled transportation financial services government services 'em up police services retail i mean you name it there's no there's no industry a a bit isn't affected this is say this is a quarter of a trillion dollars suffer a market in twenty twentythree its entire place in the market for everything that's happened in the last thirty years enterprise application software so there's no industry that is not bad is there a is there any truth to the idea that with increasing use of artificial intelligence will make human beings less relevant as employees oh no i think there'll be more opportunities for the four people there'll be more interesting jobs okay i think things will change just like jobs change when we moved from horsedrawn carriages automobiles but more jobs were created not less and i think more jobs will be created here but they will be different kinds of jobs and there'll be more interesting jobs but were not marginalizing humans there's just i mean the idea that you know they were gonna have you know these you know killer robots that are gonna be embedded in europe frigerator they take all over the household you know i i think this is pretty far fetched i don't think we need to worry about that anytime were not were not heading to a full doctor who type scenario 'em i i do wanna i wonder what you think the government should be doing she talked about the army in the united states and how they seem to be very aware of eighty s i wore there at with china i'm wondering whether there is more that should be done whether it's in the united states or europe or in china to fund different artificial intelligence incubators or a other other factors that would actually give give people like you feel like there's enough of an investment right now and a government level do you think they should be more involved but i don't think there's any problem of shortage of investment in china xi who they're doing it and i think that the free market take care of this in the united states and in europe very well i think a proper role of government however released a social media i think what's going on in social media is very troubling okay and these these companies are not regulating themselves they're misusing using a personal and private data in in kind of very nefarious ways they are controlling the nature of speech and the internet they're controlling what's news they're allowing these systems be weaponized by bad actors and you know this this just a very fundamental issues like whether or not worry about conducted a democracy so i think this is a proper role for government government government does not regulate i we're gonna have a problem tom siebel thank you so much for being here tops evil is founder and chief executive officer of c three dot ai a base in california but he joins me here in new york he is author of digital transformation survive and thrive live in an era of mass extinction where they forward by honorable condoleeza rice world leaders these are listening they're listening for solutions to global challenges ensuring the future generations have everything they need world leaders and ceos like kashem bunny martin alone non neil economy tanked pulsa janet yellen lieko dumbo j are waiting to hear your ideas if they like your idea it may become a reality you and your idea could join them at the bloomberg new economy forum in beijing learn more at bloomberg dot com slash solutions another soup company is in the news or boutique investment banks piper jaffrey saying today it was agreeing to buy sandler o'neil neil and partners for four hundred and eighty five million dollars what does this mean for the boutique broker dealer space joining us now i'm so pleased to say it's chris wayland chairman of wailing global advisors chris i just wanna start with what you're first impression was when you saw the piper piper jaffray agreed by sandler on yeah well i i think it's a great transaction for both firms i've worked with sandler for many years going back to when i was a crowbar ratings a they came in and were able to execute multiple transactions i think well over a hundred per small to mid size banks we're writing it krld leads for banks had no chance of being rated buddy other agencies and once they came in and they actually earned an investment the grade rating they could sell that to insurance companies and the guys have sandler jumped on this opportunity they hit historically been really inequities shop and they came in in very effectively a pursuit that they have wonderful research in that sector both banks thanks reads small nonbank financial companies and i think i i hope that the guy said piper gonna build that business 'cause it's an area of the market that is not well followed is virtually nobody writing research about small banks and i think it's opportunity for them so one thing when i'm struck by is back in two thousand twelve two thousand thirteen actually two thousand eleven going back as far as than a there was a wave of consolidation in talk of much more to come among smaller broker dealers and it was sort of eat what you kill kinds of shops start it up outside of the in the aftermath of of the crisis and i'm just wondering that kinda taper down an order we left with here i mean do we have another wave of emanate a but you're expecting the seat and some of these smaller broker i think the consolidation has to come in part because it's you know the business is extremely competitive and the larger firms have been just hammering tong in in combat over larger mandates because that's how they survive five they tend not to chase the smaller deals but over the past few years you've seen the goldman's and you've seen the j p morgan sexually chasing teal said five years ago ten years ago they wouldn't have even looked at so i think this is good because again if they can take what they built it sandler about the research and execution capability in investment bankers in grow that they have the space to themselves will the small firms a eventually after compete with the larger firms yes wants a deal sizes get up in the hundreds of millions of dollars but if you're doing a hundred and fifty million dollar of subordinated did issue a triple for small bank you're pretty much up the coast yourself i'm wondering what you're expecting in terms of potential path there any firms that and you're i dynasty whether they might i joined forces were among the smaller ones they're all private first off so you don't have a lot of visibility into them the boutiques tend to fall into a couple of different disciplines just pure investment banking with no execution because that's a relatively easy broker dealer to run once you start touching money and you have customer accounts and you do sales trading it's much more complicated business and it requires capital so it it really depends where you're gonna focus i think did visory business is gonna remain a boutique because you know people like myself i'm affiliated with a little a broker dealer new york called j b b a securities part of conan company and i focus on the mortgage market that's just my specialization through a lot of other boutiques in the in the market to do the same sort of thing but the execution side is hard to such a particular profitable easy you've covered this you know is anybody out there trading a fixed income willow and that's and that's actually what i wanna ask you i mean given the fact that we have pretty narrow spreads i in credit when you're talking about potential for profitability and then you're also talking about increasing use of electronic platforms and in other conservative game what's left well that's exactly right beat the boutique sitting in some of the larger independence both equity in fixed income have been giving their market share taken away by the platforms but you know platforms platforms can't make markets platforms don't sell and i can't tell you how many times i've had clients who've been trying to use a platform come to us and say hey can you help us solve this because there's no one there acting user agent that's the difference so i think there there's a role for the street but the technology is changing rapidly in a lot of people get lured away would be illusion that they're gonna get liquidity off of passive platform that's just a bunch of investors facing one another and i think the reality is you need help if you wanna sell the concept so security you have to have somebody to make the case for it who's knowledgeable enough to convince investors say yes and that's a role but i think is gonna remain thank you so much for joining us today which whalen is chairman of wailing global advisors earlier on the show we were speaking with thomas siebel a v author of a new book digital transformation survive and thrive in an era of mass extinction which raises the question of how does one invest in these upcoming wave of transformation stemming from artificial intelligence and cloud computing here to give us a sense of at least from one perspective is bill studebaker he has president and chief investment officer of robo global a with its flagship rowboat e t f investing in some of these companies behind robotics and some of these technological advancements that are increasingly popular seville i just wanna first describe what it is that you're trying to identify in companies in terms of how to decide what to invest in okay good morning 'em simply put were trying to identify the companies have the highest revenue threshold the corresponds directly the selling technologies and robotics and sore going basically to the gold rush these picks and shovels caesar's are the technologies they're unable in this revolution the habit were looking for companies we think of high revenue purity important we also have you know i hide technological sort of a moat around their business in in doing this we employ eight specific industry focus on robotics may i we have team this focus exclusively on this we also have seven phd thirteen the who's who in robotics may i please look at a website rebel global dot com to get more inside a but these are people that have created technologies that have done research in academia for the better part of decades but having amazing perspective on industry this gives us a real competitive moat around are business we plying yes she filters to due process after that so this part of the index constitution is very industry research driven fundamentally focused okay then we pass on to a calculation asia the middle except for more passive filters minimum market cap exchange rate eligibility and we get no no more than five percent the free flow pops index now of eighty eight companies they're dome a salad and fifteen different geography is and the fun thing about this is less than two percent of these companies are md s and p and most recently the seas abusers your investments that investors don't don't own yet yeah but i think they're gonna wanna have a stake in as we go forward so you're making a pitch and you're you're making a strong i'm sure a lot of people a listen because right now artificial intelligence and robotics certainly some of the biggest buzzwords out there i'm trying to figure out how some of v a trade war landscape and they check war between the us and china affects us i'm looking right now if you're biggest holdings ocean nearing a international is a houston based energy company and then you have a human technology nology which is based in taiwan that is a company that i don't even know ball screws maintains balls grows and linear guide ways is the discussion here i'm trying to figure out i mean does it affect anything well clearly does i think there's a short term impact that there wasn't adjustment that is we were accepting the end of two thousand eighteen early nineteen and there wasn't impact there clearly this produce some slower economic activity a roughly sixteen percent of index is industrial so there was a clue slow down some capital spending they're having said that we think the focus here must be on the long term okay i'm sort of indifferent to what's happening in the market on any given day if we got her in a world where there's a resolution here these companies are really gonna take off however you know the situation where there's more isolationism that goes on on countries are gonna have to employ more automation to supplant you know what they would have been imported from before so there's gonna be continued investment in robotics hey i regardless of what happens a politically that's my perspective so i'm looking at you're robo each cfl which manages they believe has one point three billion dollars of assets management 'em in northern indoor in north america i i'm just i'm wondering whether an e t f rapper is the correct rapper if you're view is the long term well we definitely think so i think the active the management has struggled for the last decade really because people sell it works there so it doesn't work unstoppable force in between okay a when you look at it this evolution of were seeing i think everyone always looks back in hindsight look at the internet how mazing disrupted that was people that you know want it to pick what were the obvious winters like back in the late nineties two thousand companies like aol netscape an inconvenience some of these companies aren't even around we know look at you know all the fan companies with a lot of envy going how and why wasn't there so it's easy to sort of recognizer winters after they happen you know we think as you look at the index here were at the front end of the most transformation period of time in the history free of humanity and typically obvious winners and losers right now we think is really difficult i think the key is getting invested in staying invested in looking back in three of five years i think investors are gonna be very well rewarded thank you so much for being here a q bill studebaker is precedent and chief investment officer of robo global shares up of that fund particular find the robo a the ticker is robot r o b o a up nearly twenty percent year to date thanks for listening to the bloomberg pnl podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews at apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer on paul sweeney i'm on twitter at pt sweeney and lisa abramowicz i'm on twitter at lisa abramowicz one before the podcast you can always catch us worldwide on bloomberg radio the world leaders are listening they're listening for solutions to global challenges ensuring the future generations have everything they need world leaders

paul sweeney lisa abramowicz ceo richard branson janet yellen bloomberg beijing apple tim us guy johnson virgin galactic nine months five years two years eight hundred million dollars eight hundred million dollar eighty five million dollars one hundred million dollar eighteen million dollars
Fast Money 05/20/19

CNBC's Fast Money

45:22 min | 2 years ago

Fast Money 05/20/19

"Brought to you by fidelity, where decisions are clear and costs are lower than ever. Learn more about our industry leading value and open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading. Fidelity brokerage services, LLC member. NYSE SIPC. Bass money starts right now from the NASDAQ market site. Overlooking New York City's Times Square. I'm Melissa Leo traders on the desk or Tim Seymour, Mark teff work tougher. Dan, Nathan and guide you check chairs tesla. Take the hit today, briefly dropping below two hundred bucks a share of the electric vehicle maker faces of mountain of issues. So what can save the stuff. We've got some details. Plus tech stocks getting crushed today as tensions rise between China and the US. And Rebecca Patterson says this could be just the beginning of the tech, Cold War. We start right there with the trade war tech pain. Check out some of the carnage today as alphabet and the chipmaker's pull away from Chinese tech giant flyway, the chips, getting flush Qualcomm broadcom both down six percent. Apples down three percent of HSBC says, there's more trade war pain ahead for the tech giant. So with tech caught in the crossfire. What do you do right now guy, you think the market's going to continue to go lower? I could see go to healthcare you go to energy, but the sort of this is the market double topped, and the s&p at twenty nine forty we've talked. About that a number of times. I don't think the vix is nearly high enough to, to acquaint with what's going on in the world. And quite frankly, if you think there's some U S China trade deal that's going to be struck and the eleventh hour, I don't think it's going to happen. And I've said this for a while. I don't think I think the Chinese have been stringing us along. I think they've been preparing for this for months, if not the last year, and I think there's more pain ahead for the broader stock Mark the semi's along for the past month down about seventeen plus percent here. So we're getting the swipe of just the general trade war hitting the broader sector, but also the specific hits because of while way and obviously, as we see Google begin what's going to be an exodus of US companies from doing business with way you have this sense of this is really happening. I don't think people guy talked about the Chinese may be been planning this for a long time. He may be absolutely right. No question. The market has not been planned for this, and the reality is what what's gone on here. Is it looked like we're going to cut a deal that seemed to me based on all the details? We had of this deal, which was going to be a great deal for China. So actually. I if you wanna put your American flag on right now I think it's not a bad place for pushing back on a trade war that I was not going to be solved based upon the rhetoric. We were hearing up until we heard it got nasty the bottom line. Here's that markets really didn't price this in. And if you think about the, the Genesis of the trade war last year really led to this place where CEO's began this dialogue of uncertainty that began to dominate the headlines in that is leading indicators, and that is a context context of where, you know, let's face it think about the places we would be all most concerned on this desk. If the world really slowed down, we'd go to Europe. Well, guess who's got the biggest export economy? It's affected Europe and they're going to suffer a lot more than we will. So a pullback a four percent in semi's is, is dramatic. And in fact, it's cascading. It's not getting better here and I just think that markets, which on the headlines and maybe even to the administration, appear and not so bad as down a little bit. Obviously, you look at emerging markets where at all time, lows all time lows on a relative basis to the SNP, meaning they've been absolutely. Underperforming in their worst level ever. Yeah. So it's interesting, we've mentioned, the semi's a couple of times here and we know that, you know, two thousand eighteen was a really weird year for this component supplier to all of these major OEM's, which while way is a major Android OEM. They make almost twenty five percent of the handsets on Android. It's really important. Remember because we talk about apple versus Android, Android, has, like, eighty five percent market share globally. So when you think that that has twenty five percent. This is a really interesting time for the supply chain on the smartphone market at a time when we know that we are seeing a plateauing of demand. We've seen actual smartphone units drop your every year for the last three years here. So what's really interesting to me is that the estimates the that's tracked the semiconductor group is down about seventeen eighteen percent from those recent highs last year when this was very an omnipresent threat to the supply chain and smartphones. We had almost a thirty percent peak to trough decline, so yes, it's gone down in a straight line. Seventeen percent is there. More to come. Possibly this is going to be a drawn out thing and let me just tell you this is not really a big positive for apple for a whole host of reasons. We know apple is down three and a half percent. This is actually huge for South Korea's. Samsung, I've been very obvious. Yeah. So I mean, typically during periods of political uncertainty that ends up being contrarian indicator. So the way I feel right now there's just a lot of market noise right now. And if you're able to tune out the market noise, and you still believe that the uptrend is intact. It gives investors and opportunity to identify some positions that they like to be in possibly. It's very attractive entry points. So when we talk about tech yes, semi's are getting crushed. But there's still a big opportunity within software. So a lot of the software companies, you know, you're talking high margin revenues recurring, revenues on a subscription basis, so companies like Salesforce, Microsoft. I think there's some great opportunities to get an great prices within those stocks a tune out the noise when it comes to sectors, that are not being directly hit, correct. I mean, it gives you an opportunity to find good value to tune out the noise within semi's sectors that are direct. But here's the really listen, all those, those recurring, high recurring revenues software and if they actually haven't gotten hit. It'd be five hundred is not even four percent from those highs you're looking at a high growth area like once I growth area like seventies down seventeen percent. I think the dip your tone the water right here down four percent with Microsoft down just a few percent from the highs, you might be a little early and it really depends on your time horizon. You know, Salesforce is another one high valuation high growth. But if we do have a protracted Trig where what really that means is, we might see enterprise spending. And that is going to be software and what he's going to be cloud. And some of this was already getting to a place where we are starting to hear some pushback in terms of demanding, cloud, and depending on who you are talking to despite the fact that, that it's been the driver of Microsoft's outperformance, it's been restored since for Intel, I think these are places. So I, I would agree with Dan, at least that I think the enterprise spent is riskier. I think we haven't gotten a fresh downgrade of global growth because we just don't know yet, and I think what's going to be really interesting here is you could make an argument that the fed the essentially the impact of the fed hikes is not been fully felt by markets yet and added in a stronger dollar and you really have another tightening condition. I mean, that's the argument of UBS strategists, who has twenty fifty price target on the S and P five hundred is not hikes that have had happened last year have not been felt yet. And so we're still waiting for that to hit as we potentially are getting into the slowdown, but in terms of. Enterprise spend are you worried about that? Should I am worried about enterprise spend, but I do feel like Salesforce is one of those companies that's insulated from it. I mean, what Salesforce does is they provide a, a CRM program to businesses that improve profitability, improve efficiency, and I think when the economy actually slows down, there are going to be a ton of cost get cut way before they anyone cuts their CRM program. I mean, you'll you'll drop employees, you will drop advertising costs marketing costs. You're not gonna drop the engine. That drives your business. Listen, we've loved Salesforce on this for quite some time we've talked about it. But in this environment is stock is trading close to fifty times earnings to dance point at a certain point people will look and say, you know what valuation is too rich but start getting out of these some of these high flyers I don't think they'll be I don't think they'll be protected from that, in my opinion. But Mark, your analysis is not wrong by any means. It's really a matter of timing. And I think it's really important remember that we have these. Zac, sames concerns in Q, four when these high growth Danes were getting nailed. They had thirty forty percent peak to trough the client. So my view is that Salesforce, you know, was trading at one sixty five now it's one fifty five on a three and a half percent. Move from the highs in the S, and P five hundred you may want to be a little patient, as saying it does matter time highs in matters when you do at tech more broadly, well field about tech and given the environment and given that, you know, higher multiple names could get hit the hardest. I think we've seen this at different if we're going into maybe a second half of the year where you're going to start to get downgrades on global growth beyond what we've already endured, I think we've seen that the market the high multiple names don't perform. And in fact, there are under attack, and you can make an argument that actually the damage, technically, I'll leave this for all those great charters we have on. But something like Netflix is resting really right on top of a level that it rose up to after the downdraft of December. And in fact, is getting very much nearing his two thirty level. And Netflix means you fall off here. And there's some big multiple names that I think run into. Some trouble. So I think if you're playing defensively here, it's probably in the bricks and mortar of tech and it may be an even an in video at least where you've gotten recent data points and you, you have companies that maybe have carved out a moat in terms of their core business, and their chips. Right. Your eye Invidia, right, Mark. Yeah. I love and video. I mean, I'll tell you what if if this stop pulls back a little more, if we can get it in that one thirty two one forty five price range that falls into our lap. We'd be buying shares right now. I mean in my opinion, it's a best of breed. Ships dock it gives us exposure to autonomous vehicles gaming data center, all the places we want to be, and I think it's almost priced right? I think it's fair to pick levels. And I think that's what you should be doing if you're watching at home. But one thing I've saying of the broader market, the S and P made all time high within the last couple of weeks. The Russell never verified. That, by the way, it's a matter of fact, the IBM did get anywhere close to where we saw over this past summer, which to me is troubling. So again, you look at the five hundred mile. My world at a major double top at twenty nine forty forty five pick your poison and it doesn't sort of Bo. Well, especially with the Vicks at sixteen and a half, which to me speaks to the complacency that's been in this market for the last decade. All right. Our next guest says, even if there is a trade deal, this tech Cold War between the US and China is just getting started. Let's bring in Rebecca Patterson chief investment officer at Bessemer. Trust Rebecca always great to see you. You're overweight technology though. So how does that square with this notion of a tech Cold War? Well, a lot of the conversation y'all been having on the desk already with some of the organic growth that we think we're going to continue to see whether it's an attend center, Alibaba in China or something like a Salesforce here in the US. We don't think that's going away. Whether there's a trade war, not, there's going to be a lot of noise and volatility in the single names. But as a trend we still like that trend, but the whole concept of the tech Cold War, which we start writing about a year ago is the idea that just like we saw when the US got nervous about Japan in the nineteen eighties. The US is now. Having similar, not exactly the same nerves about China today that China as its goes on its growth path could become the largest economy in the world on a number of different fronts in our lifetimes in our career, but it's not just the economic strength that makes us nervous. It's about what they do with the technology that could translate into geostrategic, strength and military strength. And so five G is just an example, while way is an example of the tech dominance that I think makes you fearful. And it's not just a Republican party issue. I think there's bipartisan nervousness around this. And that's why I don't think the tech Cold War goes away. I think there is a good chance. We'll get a trade deal. I don't know when it is. And what the details of the deal are. But even if we get that deal in some tariff levels go down over time this nervousness, and the limitations our government's going to try to put around tech to protect the US economically militarily is here for a long time. So how do you extrapolate the five G build out to other sub sectors, within technology? So you have to think about. If the US is going to make it harder for us to partner overseas with certain economies and vice versa. So where does the capital go? We're going to see companies relocating. We're going to see companies changing their supply chains overtime. I'm dying about years, not months or weeks. So this is slow it's going to affect capital, flows. You have to think who's going to be our ally, who will America partner was so does. Do we see more money going to Scandinavian countries that are making telecom equipment? Do we have certain allied countries in Asia, we prefer to partner with? So you have to think long term where does the capital flow, where to the trade flows go? You're going to have winners and losers from that this is not even a long term play. This is ultra long-term play. But I think this is some something everyone should be starting to get in their heads. When they're thinking about making investments for the for the medium or long-term in terms of sectors, technology, certainly, but it's going to feed through a healthcare right now. All the biotech, that's going to be hit by this. You're going to see a number of different sectors impacted. I think over time. So do you think it's just been a false? Scenario when you talk about a trade deal that, you know, the force technology transfer and the IP theft has really been at the heart of this. And when we think about it to your long trade, but on the near term basis it seems like we're just focused on this trade deficit. And if we do have a deal about the trade deficit that tariffs are going to become more prevalent, as a compliant sort of mechanism going forward, and we might have just greater volatility with trade with countries like China going forward. It's a really good point. I think that the investors have kind of confounded these two issues. Right. The tech called war and trade, their parallel pass. These are different issues that just overlap to a degree. So in the trade deal included that China had to change its laws on tech, that's where these two things collided. And where the Chinese, I think, said, you can't tell us to change our laws. That's our country's right? But I think to your point, you know, the government is realizing that tariffs can be effective political tool. There's, there's bipartisan support in a lot of friends for, for going hard on China, not necessarily the trade war, but going home. On china. So I think tariffs are told that may be with us for a while, and the longer it lasts back to your point earlier Tim on Europe. So the longer the tariffs are in place, the harder and longer the hit the manufacturing sector globally. So you look at the manufacturing sector PM is you look at places like Germany that are exposed to this the longer this goes on it's cumulative effect those countries can't bounce back. So, so many companies across sectors. We're looking to China in that area of the world for growth. And if you eliminate that were severely cut that expectation back should multiples, be capped then in the long run. I mean, people are still going to want to do business in China. I mean, even if growth slows in China it's still it's a big pie that still growing, and you've got this amazing consumer base, that's getting more and more mature and sophisticated about what they wanna buy. So I think you're still going to see capital there. You're still seeing businesses that want to go there. But if you have that incremental dollar that marginal dollar do I want to invest it in China or Vietnam? Or do I. Want to invest it in China or maybe a Scandinavian country if I'm telecom. Now you have a conversation before it wasn't a conversation. It was a done deal. So now, I think you're going to see more diversion in companies as they're making those longer term decisions especially if they think this is going on for the foreseeable future project. I thank you Rebecca pattern Bessemer trust. We appreciate it. Your incremental dollar. Where does it go these days since you're looking at the world? Well, she she brought up a tent sent in an Alibaba, some of these names. I mean I just I don't think that these are trade were stocks in the way they are treated. In fact, I think you know, we talked about, and I think Mark even talked about places where you're going to see some extreme opportunities to be by like, I think apple one hundred and eighty dollars is getting to be extreme. I think certainly if you look at the move from one ninety five down to one sixty on Alibaba, almost like that fact that we probably closed through that. So I think you have an idea where where I think, companies that are true tech players that are not necessarily relying on global global capital flows are going to be at risk. I think you have to really be careful about data as the new oil. And this is this whole Cold War concept that she's talking about thinking about where we were ten years ago and how protectionist we were over resources every country in the world is going to be doing this right now in tech. I think quickly, I think the microscopes and be off healthcare healthcare, actually hangs it pretty well. You look at UNH. By the way, quickly up eleven and a half percent over the last couple of weeks. And I think that continues to go higher. But mentioned Tim, MSCI, Mr. Rebecca, say this in terms of the EM thirty eight and a half better hold that was the low back in October. Recent low, again, breaks thirty eight and a half and things get very dicey very quickly. So I think there's some huge opportunities you mentioned healthcare. So I think there's some huge opportunities within medical devices. Medically quit a few names. We like intuitive surgical. I think there's great opportunity there. You're seeing more and more surgeries nowadays being done by or with robots and they're really one of the leaders in that industry. Another one we like his Abbott labs, you know, they're doing great stuff with diabetes management. So I think there's good opportunities there just mentioned that, you know, apple obviously China's been huge for them, but it's also been a huge source of volatility. And then also when you think about global growth for some of our tech behemoths. They've been unable to get to China and they may never be now. That's facebook. That's Amazon, that's Google, and it's over, you know, so the list goes on, and on, and on, and you have to. How do you price incremental global growth of China's not going to be a part of it? All right. Coming up at tesla hitting skins breaking below two hundred dollars a share today before pairing some of those losses just how low can tesla go. The traders will weigh in. Plus check out this mystery start this stock is up fifty percent so far this year. But the chart master says this name has come too far too fast for down the trade and later, we've got a slew retail earnings this week, the traders, tell you the names. They are shopping, the names air-dropping ahead of those big reports for your life from time swear in New York City, much more money right after this. Hey, I'm John Harwood. Host of CNBC's Speakeasy podcast. Listen into my in depth conversations with political decision-makers folks like John Delaney. The first declared democratic presidential candidate for election twenty twenty along with Senator Sherrod Brown. Senator Elizabeth Warren. And Stephanie shrieks of Emily's list. Those interviews and more on the Speakeasy podcast. Subscribe today. Welcome back to pass money. Tesla shares hitting the skids, again today after Wedbush warned the clouds or getting darker for LAN musk and his company the sock briefly dipping below two hundred dollars at the day's lows for the first time since late twenty sixteen Philibeaux joins us from Chicago to breakdown Tesla's breakdown fill 'em Melissa, as you look at white tesla tumbled today. Again, ninth day, I think, in the last ten where it has moved substantially lower. Let's start first off with the Wedbush note. It wasn't just that they cut their price target for tests. I think they dropped it down to two hundred thirty dollars, but the language in there where they questioned the demand for the model three and they said, look, it's going to be like a Kilimanjaro hike in order to achieve profitability. Well, that had people saying what exactly can we expect from tesla? When it comes to the financial performance, their estimates have been plunging. How quickly have they gone down? Go back to December thirty first of last year. And when you look at Tesla's the consensus, that was out there, according to the facts that back in December, it was at what six dollars and forty. Seven cents February. It was still holding up pretty well, people expected a profitable year for two thousand nine hundred five sixty eight then the first quarter deliveries were disappointing it dropped to four twelve and April is just a disaster. That's when most of the analysts said, look, they're going to lose money this year. And now the expectation is for tesla to lose a buck fifteen for two thousand in nineteen. It is down almost fifty percent from its fifty two week high, which was set back in August. That's what we're showing you here. Go back to August. Seventh the stock was up at three seventy eight three seventy nine dip below two hundred briefly today guys down forty eight forty nine percent since August, and that was around the time of hunting secured for twenty tweet, right, Phil. Right. And, and one last thing Melissa, I've had people say to me, well, what would it take in the past Elon Musk would tweet or say something, and that would move the stock higher? His levers, the levers, he can pull. There are a lot more limited. Now look, they already went to the capital markets, so they can. Get more money. So they've got liquidity for a little while in terms of new models, they showed you the model y they showed us, the pick the semi truck will, what can they show us next to make people say? Wow. I see the future. I see what's coming up for tesla. We're in a period here where you're waiting to see if the demand is truly softening for the model three or if they can come through with the guidance that they have put out there in terms of deliveries into skepticism really got ramped up fell when they came out with guidance and ramp from sixty three K to as many as ninety to one hundred K in the following quarter. I mean, that's twin eyebrows started getting raised really on the street writings, right? And everybody's saying can you really deliver what ninety nine thousand per quarter for the rest of this year. There's a lot of skepticism there fell. Thank you, villa bottle on tesla Phil didn't mention, but of course, the autonomous event, also Winnie on must promise a fleet of autonomous taxis that would take to the streets, and that's also didn't. Bring the stock higher. Well I mean you were off last week, but we mentioned a video a TV game called nowhere women's remember that show here you here for thank you for remembering my presence about them. But I say press, your luck in Tim spent pressing his luck. And you know what good for Tim has been spot on? I'll say, again, one eighty was the low November two thousand and sixteen. That's where it said it to. And again, it feels as though it's overdone to the downside probably still has more room. How far are you pressing? I tell you what I mean, we, if you just think about market dynamics you've got a lot of margin calls in here. You've broken all support. You've lost all institutional support, what might be traditional oversold conditions. I don't think so. And I would just get back to what you said on deliveries look. Let's let's be clear on a couple of things. First of all, they pulled four two and a half years of backlog demand, and the model three and cranked, a lot and pulled a lot of demand for because a tax credits, right? For the end of the year, the demands just not there and to get ninety to one hundred thousand each quarter for the rest of the year, you really believed they believe that. And if they. I'm not sure how we prove this. But again, it gets into this whole dynamic here with this company, where, you know what is what constitutes these guys not being truthful, and you can't tell me that they can't look at, at their order cycle right now and their delivery cycle for the second quarter and have a better steak on that. So, again, I get back to demand to get back to balance sheet like it back to credibility to get back to corporate governance. And I don't know who buys a stock here. I agree. I think this thing's headed for about one hundred bucks a share how its value each higher than that. No. Okay. But I do think it goes lower. I think it's going to continue to go lower. We've been barest for a while. I do think demand is waning. You had a lot of pull forward at the end of last year to take advantage of the tax credit which was cut in half. The, you know, in the past, they were competing on quality now, they're trying to compete on price and quality suffering. And what this Tusla really do. I mean, jack-of-all-trades master of none. I mean they're doing electric vehicles. They are doing insurance. They're doing robo taxi spaceships. I don't know what they're doing. They're not focusing and they're not executing on their core business today, credit markets. You look at the five year. CDS it's up spiking. You saw their twenty twenty-five convert is down trading near all time lows. So the credit markets definitely taken notice. You're just mentioned this though from an equity standpoint open on the lows closed on the highs on big volume. So again, when we sit here as a desk, and I was wrong last week by saying the same thing, it's really hard to press. It, it seems like it's a universal short. And there's the person to buy it are the shorts I guess, and that's how you get them skipping over each other on a near shorts peas her mind, tesla. And what's next to the stock had over to trading nation dot CNBC dot com. I'm melissa. You're watching Nancy NBC first in business worldwide. Here's what else is coming up on fast. They were going shopping. Yep. And Buster's are heading to their favorite stores, this week as a number of big retail stocks report, earnings blue tell you the names that traders are shopping, plus it's opinion that we've gone too far as it is. That's right. Chuck master says a number of stocked with under this world moves this year that come to bar to fast. He'll give us the names there's much more best money after this. We live in a world. That's creating a enabled everything a world with more. I o t devices than people today. Technology has never been smarter. But smart only matters when you put it to work where it matters when we put smart to work, we can help save species increase crop yields and make progress, but not just for a few of us for all of us. So let's get to it. Let's put smart to work. Find out how at IBM dot com slash smart. Welcome back to pass. Monday despite the recent market turmoil. The S and P five hundred is hovering just four percent below all-time highs, as we approached the halfway point in twenty nine thousand nine are, Bob Asahi's live from the new York Stock Exchange with more on the markets biggest winners. Hey, Bob low Melissa, the SNP is still up thirteen percent this year, but it's come off its historic high of several weeks ago, as you mentioned, as trade issues with China, once again, the single largest source of downside risks to the markets and take a look here. This year's percentage leaders are a very diverse group. It's really not represented by any particular sector. Some are merger related so Anadarko, for example, that's up on the oxidation deal. So are market leaders in their own particular space. So, for example, cosmetics giant, Cody is rallying on good earnings, and a very strong, e commerce platform. And by the way, very heavy short base there. That's leading to some short-covering. Recently Hess, is one of the very few strong performers in energy this year. But it's got a new. Pipeline of low cost discoveries very critical particularly Aghia that it's going to fuel oil production growth for them over the next decade. Chipotle, eat recovering from its food safety incidents of last year. It's been outperforming though, other fast casual restaurants, on superior management, that simple menu pleasing restaurant designs and some very strong digital efforts that seem to be paying off finally perennially challenged Xerox. This is just a tough lousy business. It's imaging equipment it's bit in structural decline for years as the workplace become more digital and rivals, like Hewlett Packard, and canon, grow their market share. That's been a very big issue. But the company's earnings had been growing up thirty percent year over year in the last earnings report Melissa, and they're one of the most aggressive buyers of their own stock out there anywhere in the SAP. They've reduced their shares outstanding by about thirty percents twenty twelve and Melissa. That makes them a buyback monster in my book back to you. All right. Thank you. Bob Bassani at the new York Stock Exchange. Tam do like any of these market leaders while tell you what I mean, if you have a case, where you look for stocks to continue to perform an environment where growth is challenged. I mean, I think you have to kind of stay with what's been working. So, you know automatically. I think you wanna find EPS growth in the tech sector and that's probably where we go. Yeah. Mark. How about you? Not really. I mean, we talked about Cody last week, so code as one I'd be staying away from I think their debt levels are way too high. They're like five point eight times net debt to EBA. They're, they're really struggling in that mass consumer market, bringing on PNG's beauty business with covergirl. I just think it's kind of a situation that's not really going to work well for them. Hess, is at a huge move at a trade set of big valuation. But if you look maybe they've turned things around that you say thirty five times four hundred and that's crazy. Yeah but I don't think it's play. It's maybe they've actually figured it out after a decade of floundering. So I think out of all the names, Mitch and Hess might be the most interesting one. Well, Cody and has and the rest of the S and P five hundred high aren't the only names tearing it up in two thousand nine the chart master says, there are two overlook names that maybe about default earth after soaring start to the year over the plaza to break it all down. Hey Carter, so just pick it onto names that have been impervious. To all things. Just classic it using credit growth names. But they seem a little hot. A little ahead of themselves names that you might know planet fitness, one of the fastest growing, sort of workout joints, if you will, to put it in a not very pleasant way. And then wing stop. It speaks herself. They sell wings to your charts. This is an incredible kind of thing. Great runs are what they are. But they have setbacks. And sometimes they have end of the great run now just to put this in context. Let's look at this compared to well, the mighty Microsoft and visa, you're talking about stocks that have doubled and tripled, both these great winners, which they in turn have tripled to performance of the NASDAQ. So just in a two year period, a lot of money. He's been drawn in. I think they're a little hot and at a minimum one's long, take some profits and then with a little fortitude. Get short. Now, Wall Street, of course, is a cheerleader kind of thing, very few stocks are rated cells, and you see it here for planet fitness. They're all buys. There are three holds hold is a euphemism. For cell means, wink, wink cell, but they're no outright, sells you don't wanna offend the bankers. This speaks for itself. That's go onto what we see here for planet fitness. The average price target is seventy nine hundred eight but it closed Friday at eighty so even though no one's got to sell the current price target for twelve years out is below where it is now. Well, how about the next one so planet fitness where could it go at a minimum, I think you check back to trend. So the betting here is that we're going to get this, this that brings you somewhere down in here. And then for wingstop, eight buys actually, sell their seven hold so little less euphoric, but still the principle is the same and here to average price. Target is seventy seven it closed Friday at seventy nine so according to the street, it's supposed to be by, but it's supposed to go are all little bit muddled. Wingstop. The betting is we come down to trend. And so if that's the bet it's put in our arrows and. Make that bet. I would trim them both if you're long or. By puts do something. All right. Carter come on over to the desk. Lizzy is going to bring the chair in Evan is out there. He is here. Thank you was he just in case you at home or wondering where Evan was. All right. So you don't like wingstop you don't like planet fitness. But how some of the names of Bob had mentioned that also had strong starch to year, Hess, Cody and a. Stuck that it was being pressure. Bankruptcy aren't just come off the, the bottom because of perspective deals or some sort of sale, and so forth. I think the thing about these two stocks, just in particular, that we know that fads take on a life of their own restaurant. Business is a disaster. There have been all sorts of things like Boston chicken, and cozy. And think about the other names, Einstein bagels and rubies. It goes on basically, they get very popular Kona grill noodles and company. Benny hana's goes, then, then what happens, they all fall down, or if it's very hard to get into pantheon of the restaurant business, that would Starbucks McDonald's, and a few others basically chuckling. So the fed can go for a long time, but it never goes forever. And then the, the gym thing I mean it's the same. I'm just going to switch gears because I am not interested in either of those names. What about a Cisco that had this monster rally last week? Okay. It's sold off with the SNP over the last couple of weeks. But then they had news, and they gave better guidance and people. Expect it in that huge rally on violent, you want to buy a stock like that in a market like this, that's feeling maybe a little dicey right here on any pullback. Well so Cisco has the trajectory of the market bottomed on the twenty fourth. It peaked drew down eleven percent and then gap on its earnings just now is pulled back, all things held equal. I'd rather something that just kept up on its earnings than something that didn't I want to just quickly mention so wingstop, I've never been and car mission. Never go. For your health. I'm just telling you. That's fair. But, you know this weekend was the Preakness stakes in Baltimore Carter's aware. And sometimes you don't bet on a horse. You bet on the jockey. What are you what are you telling thank you mentioned my point now? Who has gotten CMG, right? Supposedly not none, but Nicole Miller Regan at piper Jaffrey. Yeah. Why don't we mentioned that guy? I'm glad US because she just initiated wingstop with a by an eighty eight dollars price target, if you look at their quarter very strong cops almost double what the street is looking for. Maybe she's onto something. So as much as I love CBW, and I do it can't go. But it's about shake check. They all almost all end the same way in tatters on the floor, tatters Carter. Thank you say artifacts coming up big box retailers on decks report, earnings this week. We'll tell you which one's the traders are shopping, and which ones they are dropping plus t mobile hitting its highest level in more than a decade today its merger with sprint gets one step closer to reality. But some are betting the rally could be short lived. We've got the details when fast money return. Welcome back to fast money, a slew, big retailers, such report, earnings this week, including names like Home Depot. Lowe's. Kohl's target best buy in wit locker so ahead of all the big earnings releases. We thought it'd be a great time to play shot it. That's right. Shopping or drop at one of her favorite games here pass money. We kick things off today with Kohl's down five percent. This year set report tomorrow. So Tim, first contestant up shop it or draw the gauge clear. Sometimes these games are hard. I'm dropping this one. I just think you're not buying, and you're selling up selling like. Sure. People at home on dropping, dropping making it Adami basket, and I'm throwing it back up because I think Kohl's is one of about nine big box stores that are under a lot of margin pressure from labor. They're going to be under major margin pressure from from import prices that are going higher. And I think at some point, we are so far over stored in terms of floorspace per capita in this country for these types of stores. That's why they're all beating each other up on competitive forces. I don't want to own it here. I really just clarified that for guy. So when he plays the under all know I like music, and when all the artists drop things they dropped their music, that's a positive thing. So if you just in the music genre, and when you're shopping, something like the Mets are probably shopping ninety percent of their team. That's a bad thing. So I mean you can understand how I'd get confused. I would, I would know they reports them all before the bells you meant that the stock is gone from seventy six down to sixty two sixty was the low, I would say over the fall, I would shop it. So put that graphic up and say, you know what? It's had a huge move to the downside. Everything Tim talked about. It's probably priced in. They report tomorrow hope it flushes to sixty then you shop that sucker Mel ark. I'd be shopping this one. So I think they've got a huge pot positive catalysts that's out there right now with their, their partnership with Amazon, so they do have the ability, and they're going to be adding that the stores over the course of the next few quarters. They're going to have the ability to accept returns from Amazon, which is going to drive foot traffic right into their stores. I be shopping next stock footlocker of four percent this year. Dan shallow drop it Mel, I'm shopping this one and, you know, I'm just gonna kinda channel my inner Karen, Thurman, if I could who's a big name with her for a while here. This thing is actually really cheap just looking at it. They report Friday morning before the opening trade is about ten times. Earnings per share expected to grow ten percent this year mid to low single digit sales growth. They just made an investment in the goat at guy. You know what the goats all time? Yeah. Well, that's, that's a sneaker. Marketplace also owns flight club here in New York and in LA, and these guys are doing a partnership with them. I think that gives them a certain amount of credit within this demographic, that's growing in the sneaker university to me. I think you could see them actually by goat. At some point, this would be a very interesting online, offline combination in my opinion. I think it's a cheap stock. I think it's going on here. You like Nike F L. I like Nike. I'd rather have through Nike. I don't think F L ultimately, I think they have a place, but I think the valuation needs to be the multiple should be moving lower therefore, I would be wrapping not shoveled, did you look up on your interest funny, because somebody put that on like a hashtag goat on the on the Twitter machine? And I saw looked it up then. And the first thing it said was like the animal. Goat. And I said it can't be that boy on Saturday Night Live. That was one of the best. Yeah. Shopping for locker I wouldn't you know what drop it? I know Dan a shop at a profit. I mean look, this is at a huge move off. The Los was thirty dollars stock year and a half ago. It's at a huge movie thing. A lot of it's priced in. I would what I gotta do drop it your ET last week. That set me off retail. Money. Oh, but I've been buying kicks on the goat app, and I think it's pretty cool. And I think that's one way to get kids wanna show us what you're wearing right now. No, please fancy sneakers, we're gonna move on. Now. Lows reporting Wednesday Mark Tepper shop or drop it. Yes. I'm gonna shop this one. So the consumer is still strong in existing home inventories, are low, which means more and more consumers are going to opt to fix up the homes that are already living in and I do prefer lows over Home Depot, and they with their new CEO in place. It's more of a turnaround story. So I'd be shopping this one. I like that. Would you rather within shop at our drop it? That's a game within a game. Very complicated. And so and let me use a metaphor. The ops guys used a Mets metaphor on shopping, and how about the accuser probably shopping for a new third baseman because their third basements out for the year. So if I'm going to Lowe's, I'm also shopping this one, because I do think it trades at a discount Nico, people might say, because of what's going on in the housing market. What's. Going on with taxes and salt states and whatnot that actually people be under pressure to invest in their homes. I think rates falling through the floor people are taking out fresh home, equity loans, and they're going and reinvesting in their homes. Next stock L brand drop it guy. Now in a vacuum. I drop it. But in aggregate, I drop it and we've been steadfast on brought fishing. Talked. We sit what your this thing hunt was that means we said stay away from this for years, despite the fact that we play the gratuitous footage, which you all like I'm not a fan of we've said, stay away, and that's why don't you write it? I just don't like that. We don't need to do that things family show. I mean it just it makes no sense on so many different levels, if it rallies after earnings to sell it again. Fila had video game socks getting slammed today, the software among the worst performers in the S and P five hundred we'll hear from the CEO of one of these companies next plus sprint and T mobile soaring today as get one step closer to a merger. But one, trader says, don't get hung up on a deal because it could be a bad connection Tuffah. We're on that went fast money return. Welcome back to the SCC and the DOJ battling over major merger between sprint and T mobile FCC Commissioner Ajit pie saying today he plans to recommend approval for the deal, but the DOJ still reportedly leaning against allowing it to go through the options market isn't convinced. Either Dan is over at the fossil. With more Dan. Today. Obviously both these stocks gapped up sprint a lot more than Tim O will, but put volume into mobile was two times that of calls a lot of positioning for this deal. There's obviously no certainties about this. And I think in the instance, that we're gonna talk about one trader when the stock was about eighty bucks was a buyer of a thousand of the June seventy seven puts paying a buck sixty eight for those, those break even at seventy five thirty two on the downside in a month and guy would call this. Maybe it's like the FCC won't let me be trade. Right. So if this thing doesn't go through, maybe this trader is looking for some protection to the downside, because they are long, the stock hoping that the stock continues to rally, let's just kind of look at this. It's obviously been consolidating. This is t mobile, but one year chart over the last few months, you have this big breakout on big volume. This is the break even level. So if you're long, maybe it's one way to put some short term protection in this thing, here's the thing, we know that t mobile has been a rumored acquirer, maybe your query over the last few years, this is the tenure. Chart? We see this after this very long consolidation. We had this breakout another consolidation here. One way or another team mobile is in play there either gonna get this merger done with sprint or maybe a big cable company buys them. I would not expect too much downside, if this deal doesn't get done a lot of socks move on the back of, of all this news surrounding this particular deal. Verizon AT and T were up, but also of the cell tower stocks were up as well. Could you go? Go back to t- Mobile's April sixteenth. I think the news drop once again, to use that term on this show, DOJ said probably unlikely for this merchant happened to stock traded below seventy on the show that night we said, t mobile is too cheap by the stock, twelve percent higher. Here we are John legend CEO's a stud. I think that's play continuously despite the move TM US the upside. All right from Robson's action. Check out the full show. Friday five thirty PM eastern time. Coming up, check out the Kramer Cam there. Jim talking to the take to CEO's Strauss down after that stocks sank today. We'll bring you a sneak peek of that interview. We are live at the NASDAQ and Times Square much more fast money still ahead. Welcome back to pass money video game socks taking today amid a shakeup surrounding activision, popular, call of duty franchise report over the weekend, saying lead developer sledgehammer and raven will no longer be in charge of the latest edition of the game due to ongoing conflicts between the two but the game is still expected to be released on time in two thousand twenty take to see you Strauss. L Nick sat down with our own Jim Cramer moments ago to talk about the east sports. Boom. Sports are already watched by two hundred and fifty million people and one hundred and twenty five million people. Consider it a primary entertainment vehicle. That's watching people play video games, competitively. The NBA two K league is in its second season. We have twenty one teams participating we're off to the races. Here's the take two electron arts and activision all down more than twenty percent off their high. So is today's move assign. A more pain to come Tepper. What do you think? Look, I like e sports. I think it's a trend that you have to be a part of I mean viewership growing at forty percent year over year. They're selling out the staple centers for three straight days where people watch their league of legends championships. So I think this is something you have to be a part of I am concerned about activision really replacing developers on their key franchise. But hopefully this ends up being a great buying opportunity, because the long term thesis, still stands intact, the, the issue here is everything. Strauss, says, is true, everything. Mark says is true. Terms of the sector and the growth in the excitement. But, but the valuations in the multiples in this in the space or clearly, undergoing a reassessment. And so, I like and I own Electronic Arts, I think the apex legends franchises, something that's going to jump start their fourth quarter. But what do you pay? What's the multiple? I'm still not sure I know quickly, I think, take to is the best of breed. I think they have the most that the highest play games for sure. Twenty times earnings for them to me. It's not that crazy. I think they've gotten caught up in sort of the rest of the selling with the rest of the space. So if you force me to choose would you rather? It's. T. T. W. O. Milne saints. Would you rather be sure to check out Jim Cramer's, full interview with take two CEO, Strauss Zell Nick, that is coming up at the top of the hour? Coming up next final trades. Welcome back to fast. One eight family is growing checkout, baby. Shameless markan Doyle born Saturday, may eighteenth, weighing in at seven pounds, four ounces. A big congratulations to our line producer Brie and her husband, Ryan, on their bundle of joy, lookout, cute. Look, China soon. Chime. Assume time for the file trade Tim baby boy, you know what you need to do. You need to go to Home Depot and buy that kid at crib. That's probably you probably already have one anyway, I do think these earnings are something to buy into Home Depot Mark Tepper, TJ Maxx, so off price continues to be one of the strongest areas within consumer discretionary. Dan, nathan. Yes. So this lockers down from sixty five to fifty five I think it holds here. Tell you what you do for the kid first office stopped playing the song because it might be the worst song of all time. It's probably crying. Who was this planning the cyanide dance awful? But I'll say this, the holes reports in the morning by it against sixty bucks that doesn't prostate back here tomorrow, five more fast mad money starts right now. Bieber dude. Bieber. Dude technology today has never been smarter. But smart only matters when you put it to good use. Together, we can build a smarter future for all of us. Let's put smart to work. Find out how it IBM dot com slash smart.

China Tim Melissa Leo US Mark Tesla Dan Salesforce apple CEO Rebecca Patterson Europe sprint New York City Alibaba Microsoft
Fast Money 07/23/19

CNBC's Fast Money

46:02 min | 1 year ago

Fast Money 07/23/19

"Since eighteen ninety six S._N._p.. Dow Jones indices has been the leading source for index innovation. We've always been committed to leveling the playing field with solutions for all investors as well as the cutting edge research and realtime information investors need to navigate the markets confidently our solution spend all major asset classes in developed and emerging markets globally we leverage leading trends like E._S.. G. And factor strategies to anticipate these changing modern day dynamics six get our latest insights by searching index on the web fast money starts right now from the Nasdaq market site overlooking New York City's Times Square. I'm Melissa Leo Traders on the Nascar Tim Seymour here and firemen mark tepper and guide Dommie check out the big after for our actions you probably snap visa Texas instruments all on their move as the conference calls gets underway will break down the big headlines for you and U._p._S. is upping its delivery game the company just announced that could deliver big time for investors and to infinity and beyond gone beyond meat hitting another record high today's session so can anything stop the stock we are digging in but we begin with breaking news out of Washington the Justice Department launching a big probe into big tech. Let's get all the details with Ilan Roy Alon Melissa. We have just confirmed that the Department of Justice is indeed announcing a broad antitrust review of big tech and that's likely to include facebook Amazon Google and apple in a statement assistant attorney general making del Rahim said that without the discipline of meaningful market based competition digital platforms may act in ways that are not responsive to consumer demands. You went on to say that the department's antitrust probe will explore these important issues now. The focus of this new inquiry will be whether companies have reduced competition Titian stifled innovation or harmed consumers and the review comes as big tech is also under investigation by Congress. The companies were forced to testify on Capitol Hill to defend themselves against allegations that they are monopolies just this afternoon the congressman leading that effort David Cellini criticized their answers as evasive incomplete or misleading now the Justice Department is launching its own Review Melissa. This is not officially an investigation of any single company but it could certainly lead to that back to you any LAN. <hes> you know a couple months back or maybe a month ago. We heard news at the F._T._C. and the D._O._J.. Were basically giving up what we consider big technology this specific release though says dominant online platforms which leads you. I think that apple may not be included in this group. Well it's unclear at this point. They don't name any specific company names in the release <hes> but one thing that was decided on earlier we thought was who would have jurisdiction over these companies. These are a big reviews be companies complex issues and it seemed that the regulators had agreed to split that up now this review appears to go beyond that and be bigger than that are there going to be turf battles that could perhaps <hes> jeopardize the speediness genus of these reviews and inquiries we will certainly have to see but clearly the Department of Justice now making this on the top of the agenda all right along. Thank you Illinois in Washington Marshall Cute she'll keep us updated of course and we're seeing declines across the board most sharply and facebook Amazon as well as alphabet which are each down more than one percent Guy Daami. You're an investor in these names as many people out there are what do you how do you trade well. I mean the one that scares me the most well. It's scary number one for the three names that you just mentioned are all down and make sense of throwing down and probably make sense it apples I would imagine down small if not unchanged but you know Amazon into earnings on the twenty six now with this headline go back and look where it topped out. Look we're traded down to look where just retested they save yourself from my plan and the deep end of the pool so you know I don't know if earnings will necessarily matter now for Amazon facebook and Google still think facebook sets up well but I mean these headlines and I'm going to try to read through the press release. I mean that's got to be a little bit frightening. I would think talking just yesterday about how to trade headlines sort of amorphous bad news headlines sort of factor that into the here we are leading the biggest staff marketing headline. How do you think about this? I think <hes> this is going to be irritating for a really long time right. I don't know how we don't know so we don't really have much clarity except that there's a more formalist to it right. The thing that I hate about investigations like this. It's they go on and on. They are a tremendous Mendes distraction right so you need to staff up for it. You need the attention of very senior people plus. I don't know how many additional people don't need now. They're all being companies and they can afford it but the distraction of management time is is a little that's unfortunate because the you know this is what they do. They don't do these kinds of projects so I you know I think guys ordering of looting to it. I think earnings can be okay if they're good and if they're bad bad right so I think it sort of takes some of the upside away from good earnings e draw this out to the worst case scenario and that would be some break up. Is that the worst I don't I don't I don't know I'm just thinking of one scenario and there is is an argument to be made that you break up some of these companies and actually they might trade higher because you're unlocking sort of a pure player on knocking value and all of a sudden you'll have parts of companies that will trade US pureplays although I if you think about the part that is is the engine engine of concern for F._T._C. D._O._J.. Don't forget about House Judiciary Committee <hes>. I don't know you can break up Google search engine i. I don't know that you can really break facebook's platform yes you can you could break out instagram. You could break out yeah you could break out youtube and some of the parts I do think we would find this action to be a very interesting exercise especially for Google and possibly for facebook <hes> the only other thing I'd say about this very ironic that this is coming full bore from all sides they figured out there lanes. They're coming at it. At a time when we're essentially fighting China's desire to build superpower national champions that will dominate the world like these companies are tax paring down our biggest and best companies at the time we're fighting. This battle <unk> over global supremacy makes no sense. I think this is just a lot of headline noise. I mean typically in the past. These have been great opportunities the by the pullback. There's no company specific target right now <hes> quite frankly. I don't think there's really much to do with with regards through a break up of Amazon and when I look at Amazon you know the long term thesis is still intact right. I mean this is a great company. You look at their high. Margin businesses like cloud in advertising that are just growing like crazy. I I still love Amazon by the way on that big full screen that we're showing of all the stocks we didn't have twitter of their twitter was sort of the last move is now down by one point two percent so may not be big in terms of size compared to some of these others but in terms of what it does it does have sort of dominant position. I mean nobody else really does Winston live breaking a yes. I understand maybe twitter's collateral damage. I don't I wouldn't lump them in. I mean I look I mean we can say right now. You mentioned the three companies and absolutely the three companies that are clearly in the crosshairs for a number of different reasons many which Tim alluded to our facebook Amazon and alphabet and those the ones you have to be concerned about you know if there's ancillary damage to a twitter. That's to me an opportunity but I understand what mark is saying but you know this. This is pretty draconian. Headline you gotta read through some of the stuff but to Cairns point. This doesn't end in day this lasts for quite some time for more on this. Let's bring engine monster of loop ventures. He joins us on the Fast Lane Jean. What do you make of this news Melissa? I the truth is GonNa lie several layers below what these headlines are and I think it's important to note that I had some plash back to May fifth when the the trade war escalated the tensions updated with China and we tried to extrapolate Appalachia some of the impact of apple for example and and <hes> took months to figure this out. I think it's similar here is we need to just take a step back and look at what are kind of the the anchoring themes here and there are three of them. The first is privacy's important orden second is this concept of antitrust in the third is consumers need to be better off and those three are difficult to get to balance. I think for regulators to try to balance <hes> all three of those <hes> is going to be difficult to have any significant changes on these companies absolutely agree facebook and Google are the prime targets here apple. Even though it has trades at a discount in multiple is the company that has the least risk here but <hes> if I was he's GonNa guess how this plays out it does have a nominal negative impact on the multiples of Google and facebook over the next several months and I suspect <hes> that <hes> ultimate some changes in terms of privacy shared but just want to emphasize one last apiece here on that <hes> consumers better off component is that's really hard to pull off consumers love three products like <hes> instagram and Google Search and <hes> the question is will regulators want to break some of these up or or further regulate them that may cause <hes> fees or more advertising around that and I suspect that that's going to be difficult hurdle to bring all three of these together so just to take facebook as an example since we are expecting facebook earnings tomorrow after the bell so it's sort of in focus it also had a huge run up so far this year more than fifty percent Jean <hes> if you think about that. Do you think that an ongoing investigation like this could hamper any efforts for facebook to ramp monetization of some of these other platforms <hes> absolutely yeah. I think that that is <hes> you you need to look at this judiciously and I think facebook is in Google has some about how they give their search results displayed their search results but those two are the most obvious ones and I think most investors investors will <hes> there will have a negative impact on the multiple now the results tomorrow are going to have a bigger near term impact but undoubtedly this'll be as I think Karen was talking about a hang <hes> overhang on these shares for months to come so if we are the thing that monetization of what's happened. Instagram for instance is pulled back or at a standstill whatever term you want to use at this point and maybe even the roll out of libra given all the backlash. It's already faced. <hes> is also delayed. What kind have discount evaluation do you put on facebook that had been banking on all these things happening at some point in the future I think when you put it all together and if they cannot pull off or better said if they can't accelerate some of these other monetization opportunity you just outlined you go from what's the twenty five percent growing company today to closer to ten percent the multiple should go from twenty one times next year to probably closer to ten to fifteen times and so I think it can have a material negative? I don't think <hes> just want to be clear. This isn't going to happen overnight but as if <hes> that would be I think the one end of things don't turn out well for facebook how that would play out in terms of the stock which company would be the most damage from your view or is the most also most vulnerable. Do you think undoubtedly facebook. I mean that if I was defied ten points distribute who's at most riskier I would I would give five of them to facebook <hes> three of them to Google and <hes> two of 'em dams on bureau to Apple. I think there's no risk apple all right Jeanne. Thanks so much for phoning in we appreciate it. Thank you gene months revolu ventures giving us is <hes> analysis on this carrier facebook shareholder. Your alphabet share share. What do you think of genes awesome great? I loved that multiple would be cut in half was basically what it basically seems a little much but there's a lot of money to lose between here and there right so I don't know I really got to think about this and <hes> do i. You know this Susu two separate things we've earnings and we have this which is bigger at the moment <hes> earnings. I think just for the very short term we had this conversation in our good bad and ugly yesterday because these were the names James and and and so if I look at facebook <hes> the other thing. Let's remind yourselves that June third was the day that we really had the shot to the ballon these names and the facebook that seven and a half percent Google six point three percent since that low by the way that low was the market bottom that was a dramatic moment for the market when we had all that bad news market has gone on to set new highs just just know that in terms of how the market could respond to news like this. I realized it's the second or third shot facebook's up twenty six percent from that point Google ten ten so we can we can tell already suffering under the weight of not only their own issues but I think a bigger regulatory hassle. If that's a term we can use facebook to me is absolutely from a traders and fundamental perspective with that kind of move into earnings with two big bright lights on them in terms of Lieber coin and privacy and and then antitrust facebook. I'd stay away from Mark <hes> look. I think a lot of it's just it's it's all headline noise headline risk that could compress the multiples a little bit over the short run but these are things that take years to play out in court <hes> these are still solid companies. I would still be buying them. I think earnings are more important right now. That's what I'm focusing on earnings. No hope he's right. I mean earnings are more important. I think the fact that will take such a long time. I mean that casts a bit of a shadow for a while. Look I mean it's about trying to figure out what the opportunity is to Tim's point. These talks about tremendous runs at least Amazon and facebook and you look at Amazon into earnings exactly really have to wonder do you WanNa try to play from the long side in earnings with this headline risk out there and it's interesting quickly Jean said facebook's five points out of ten which I sort of get talking about stifling competition. I mean that's been Amazon for long a long time and that's one of the headlines that I'm reading to Steal J. Political Jesus you think with this administration A._T.. And T. Time Warner when it was such an obvious loser that there's some other here right facebook by the way <hes> at after our session lows down one point seven percent coming up apparently snap visa all on the move in the after hours their conference calls just getting started. We'll break down all the big headlines straight ahead plus Texas instruments soaring in the after hours the stock heading a new all-time high after reporting a blowout quarter order one top strategist called the Chipp back in May but he's back now with two more parts of the market that are ready for breakout. We're life and Times Square in New York City much more fast money right after that Hey I'm John Harwood host of C._N._B._C. speakeasy podcast listen into my in depth conversations with political decision-makers folks like John Delaney the first declared Democratic presidential candidate for election twenty twenty along with Senator Sherrod Brown Senator Elizabeth Warren and Stephanie Shrieks of Emily's list those interviews and more on the speakeasy podcast subscribed today. Welcome back a number of earnings movers after hours. Gotcha police snap and visa but one of the biggest movers is Texas. Instruments had an all time high in the afternoon session. Let's get to Josh Lipton with the very latest on those results Josh so Melissa check with Chris Roland of Susquehanna he was his take on the court said listen there was pent up fear heading in but generally in line print said gross margins are actually better than expected at sixty four point three percent Q.. Three guidance acknowledges a bit below the streets estimates but better than feared first real semi reporting this earning season he says and it's a decent report on the call interesting executives giving some historical perspective here they just completed their third quarter of year on year declines and they say cycles are always different but typically you would see four to five quarters of such you on your declines lines before growth resumes trying to forecast they say cycle but simply offer some historical perspective there they were asked directly about Wa way on the call and they know that why does represent about three percent of revenue of role for the company said over over the past core they had halted shipments when the order was given but then resume shipments of products that they determined were incompliance so things came in as expected. They were asked about five G. as well so they saw some nice growth in their five G. products of course they're rival. There's analog devices Vices Melissa back to you josh thanks Josh Lipton and San Francisco and Texas Instruments Guy. What do you make a tech operating margins where I looked at me not very much came in almost forty over forty one percent? The street was looking for thirty eight point eight percent. That's really encouraging now. The problem is is in my opinion. If you really look your revenue is down depending on what you look at in lock down twelve percent embedded processing down twenty one percent again straighten care with micron clue doesn't care here. The good news is operating margins higher. The bad news uses the guide wasn't great and the other thing would concern me is this isn't cheap at now close to twenty one and a half times forward earnings that said everybody seems to be in love with the semi's right now. I'm not sure that all the negative stuff matters Roland from Texas could be valuable. I think it's I think it's very valuable and remember Texan was was kind of the grim reaper on the last one so you know we were we were we were talking about. We're all in the in the dark on what you're supposed to be doing in the semiconductor space and if there there was one report that really sent the pall over the entire sector was this one and so the fact that I think the guy was a little bit better than expected at least so I think the streets expecting one thirty eight mid range of where they the new guidance has yet one forty me too that has to be encouraging again vis-a-vis where these guys were what's wait and get more. You know more news out of out of the postscript but I think it's it's positive all right our next guest call the chip rip back in late May and now he's back to tell us where S._M._U.'s are headed from here plus two more areas of the market prime per breakout kind of off charged with Chris Around crespigny looking at we'll see yeah well. Let's start with the chips and what I think is most notable about the semi chart. This is the socks basically had eighteen eighteen months of total indifference. You started to flirt with new highs in March and April you came right back to support the two hundred and just the absolute ricochet off support to new highs here I think speaks to the fact that this is still a secular bull bull market in chip stocks and when you look under the surface what we like it particular one hundred percent of chips right now are above their two hundred day moving average so the internals are still very firm. It reminds us a little bit of this breakout that we saw from the ships coming out of that two thousand Fourteen Twenty fifteen twenty sixteen lull where they broke out and went on for another two years so what else has these characteristics of an improving group maybe add a consensus and it brings us to the trucks and this has been one of the areas of the market. The streets been pretty negative on over the last couple of years. We actually see some reasons for improvement here. These are the trucks slowly start to make some higher lows. When you look internally again you have about eighty percent of trucks actually back above there tuner day average? That's the highest reading we've seen in almost two years so the internal set up here is getting better so chips could trucks improving. I would put banks on this list or at least I would start to entertain the idea that these banks are starting to improve and what's been so notable to us over the last number of weeks. Even as bond yields took that last like lower about two percent the financials have quietly started to outperform over the last four weeks banks outperform the utes about eight hundred basis points so despite lower yields a better tone chips trucks banks. We think that's the new leadership starting to really show up here Christmas. You come back over here to the death. Jonah will bring the chair over as he does so well. Thank thank you Jonah Chris Chris. This is really good. I mean these are indicators right for the overall markets chips trucking banks come on right. I think it's more a reflection that after four five six months of with some pretty tepid leadership the fabric of this market starting to change a little bit now. We can't say that you ch- working staples working was bare because the mark was up seventeen percent in the first half of the year my point is it's just changing where you're getting paid. What wants defensive is now becoming more pro risk? I think ultimately it's a good thing it's not just distinct to the U._S.. We're seeing in Europe and we're seeing the M subtly these more pro risk or cyclical groups are starting to take some share here so these go higher what happens technology. One of the relationships we always looked at for message on cyclicality is semi's for software right that started to inflict here over the last couple of weeks. I think software is ultimately fine but it's rich. It's it's overbought and semi is on the meanwhile. It's starting to reaccelerate a out of this base so I think in terms of playing cyclicality you're GonNa get more bang for your buck into the second half of the year owning semi's over software yeah Chris. What are your favorite names within? Sammy's well the one today I mean massive breakout cout T._S._N.. You could push this thing up to one fifty one sixty. I would encourage you to look at aml global bellwether Taiwan semi global bellwether Kalay tencor these are good stocks spent eighteen months of indifference now resolving higher so looking at ones that have been indifferent or bad that might be where do you. What do you think the industrials you know what I think what's going under appreciated over the last couple of weeks deers back to the old highs caterpillar quietly has a better tone about it? You're seeing with the trucks here. Here's well some of these modest terms the airline of broken out. It's hard for us to be too negative when the pie of what's working seems to be getting a little bit better. I'm not sure industrials or leadership yet but when you're laggards have at least stop going down. That's a better framework <hes> than the alternative so we like the group here. Did you notice guy. All the chip stocks that Chris Likes in the semi conductor index big base along the base. He's a disciple of the greater they Salonga the base. The higher space spinal tap song wonderful night. He's listened Kudos to Chris for that question in Texan absolutely is broken out now above one nineteen. I don't know if he gets a one fifty but clearly people love in this report quickly. The airlines do make sense senator. Tim talked about this but delta up almost three percent today on. What was you know decent day but I mean I think that's a pretty impressive form? Just at the very you know if you look at some of these bank moves they've gone under appreciated here like U._S.. Bank breaking out there's twenty eight. Analysts covered only seven have a bye on it. Things are under appreciated Goldman Sachs waking up for the first time in years. There's money there Chris Thanksgiving Christopher around stratego and you were noting the bank breakout today <hes> W or K B I should say one percent well. I was looking more at the money centers which I look at Nice to see them slowly creeping up a thought. I heard you say I love Jamie diamond but maybe that was me be but I did okay on an earnings triple. Play we were talking and big box burritos and bit emojis threes talks on the move and the after hours session later for county down facebook big report. What can you expect in the tech giant went to report results after tomorrow's close stick with us? You're watching on C._N._B._C.. We'll be back right after this quick break brought to you by fidelity where decisions are clear and costs are lower than ever learn more about our industry leading in value and open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services l._l._C. member N._Y._S._e.. S._I._P._C. Welcome Asa fast money. It is time for an earnings whip shares a snap visa and chipotle only all on the move after reporting results back team coverage K. Roger Standing by in Tripoli Deirdre Bosa digging in on visa but will kick things off with Julia Carson the latest from snaps conference call Julia While Most C._E._o.. Evan Spiegel says changes snap snap has made are working to drive growth in both users and Revenue Helso says they've laid the groundwork for that momentum to continue a redesigned application helps new snap cheddars adopt retentive behaviors like talking with their real friends are rebuild android application provides vastly improved experience across billions of devices and are self serve advertising business has driven accelerating revenue growth that can support a growing community around the world samples of guiding better than expected results in the third quarter including as much eleven percent year over year user increase now. That's a faster rate than snap reported this quarter now one source of that confidence is snaps investment in content as a result of our investments in our content platform total daily time spent by snapchat is watching discover increased by over sixty percent year over year while the number of daily viewers has grown by thirty five percent year over year. This was driven by the additional content. We added to our platform over the past year as well as changes we made to our platform to prioritize depth of engagement snaps big moves to remember it also gained five percent during the market day. This is all in sharp contrast to larger rival facebook as well as the other giants who we're moving lower on that report of a New Deed D._O._J.. Antitrust probe has snap says in the U._S.. It has more thirteen to thirty four year old users than facebook or instagram so right now. Snap is looking like a better option even though it is much smaller we're back over to you Juliette. Thank you Julie Borsen on snap again up eleven percent after hours it is up one hundred and seventy percent year to date and if some of the other big competitors are a little bit stymied by This D._O._J.. Investigation maybe snaps business looks even better remark. I mean it's up what ten eleven percent after hours so. They're doing something right now. I've been wrong on this one. I haven't been in it. I haven't liked it. I still don't like it and I would still pass on it here. They're still struggling to attract thirty four plus crowd. That's the cry with the deep pockets and until they're able to attract that crowd. I'm going to sit on the sidelines. I'd much rather be in a company like twitter where I feel like engagement is going to continue to be elevated at least until the presidential election next year. Let's go higher from here are higher a and we've talked about this well. Dan Nathan Kudos to him but to counter mark quickly are post Tim's fate while for user. Everybody traits traits came in better. They came in better than expected. You know daily average users. I hope that play those beautiful on the piano by the way anyway the metrics that good the people probably gonna continue to chase this name so yes. It's up eleven percent. I think it can still go high from here. The one thing I'd say is is the obvious which choose that I hold short interest is come down been cut in half <hes> the the kind of the easy run back into the market for people. You've actually seen some year over year at growth that's great their new lenses and their their gender blender and all this stuff so mean they're actually attracting the right audience as we discussed Split Fifteen bucks also a fair amount of resistance for the stock that goes way back so you know there's no way I can like it when I didn't like it before because I don't think anything has changed dramatically here even if the competition may be under more pressure all right next visa so that's all edging lower in the afternoon session. Let's to Bosa results. Dierdra Melissa will shares initially had a fresh all time high but now trading down by about half a percent Lisa Elyssa MOFFITT Nathanson says the reason it reversed course despite the good results is that payment volume growth was softer-than-expected Darren Keller Wolf Research though he says look expectations were so high. It'll trade backup tomorrow. Remember visas up nearly forty percent year to date. It's moving beyond traditional card payments and into digital wallets and the earnings call kicked off about half an hour ago C. O. L. Kelly said that visa is extending its partnership with J.. P. Morgan Chase until the end of twenty twenty-nine also suggested that deal signings than Europe are up this year. That should be positive for the company. So what else does the street looking for at least Ellis is looking for color on visa direct. This is it's new push payment product that is powering services like then Mo and Uber driver cash outs. She says that the service is small for now but a big future growth driver three three things Darren Keller is looking for one July spend and cross-border trans- to pricing opportunities three incremental partnerships especially in developing markets on libra. This is what we all wanted to hear about. At least I did both analysts. Lisa and Darren said that it's still early early days. Don't expect executives to say much on the call back to you. Melissa thank you did your Bosa Karen Visa Solo. I've long mastercard so it's going to be very similar dynamics. I think that they're both price for maybe not perfection perfection but a lot of really great things and those things are happening so I think in an okay tape. It'll it'll be fine. Mastercard seems to have a little bit more momentum recently cross-border really important for them as well <hes> I would hang onto either one yeah I i. It's hard to argue with argument on on evaluation is just the valuation for the last couple of quarters has been something that you know people tend to let past visa direct other kind of online initiative other or kind of electronic in central e payment solutions soot these guys right in with some of the most innovative companies in the world right now in a very exciting space so the multiple increase is explainable and I'm not sure we know what multiple should trade at. Would you rather guy to skim the would you rather can viewpoint. It's not a it's a thank you for the graphic rather. We don't have the pick your poison graphic not ready. It's under rats can't wait four swear you didn't you weren't expecting that right. I think there's the growth opportunity is clearly better in square so I'll say square although I'll say this quickly thirty times multiple for for visa this environment is a little rich which also concerns me which is why I would go square can I can I push. I mean where's Squares Valuation Different Ball. It's completely different so if you're concerned about valuation you default to the stratosphere. yes because if you look you don't have they don't i mean this snap is still a growth company visas no longer growth company and quickly company not not nearly like they were at and thirty times i think that's probably why it's down small small in the aftermarket but the one thing that would may be concerned me usually they beat on operation of operating margin since the first time i've seen them actually miss not quite a lot but they did miss let's get to aaa 'cause i wanna hear about their new menu items hitting all time highs in the after hours that conference call gets underway underway hey rogers back at headquarters with all the details gate i'm lisa talking about carney asada casey as a lot of things that had to lay out though with another strong earnings report for the second quarter the company beat on every metric same store sales or notably up ten percent but investor focus focus is likely going to be on digital once again here's ceo brian nickel on digital sales overall digital sales grew ninety nine percent year over year the two hundred sixty two million dollars during the quarter and represented eighteen point three percent sales the perspective this was more than we did in digital sales during all of two thousand sixteen delivery remains a key driver digital growth giving enhanced capabilities on our app and website as well as expanded reach in fact delivery now available for more than ninety five percent restaurant and remains highly proventil delivery also remains the fastest growing part of the business japodlay rewards its loyalty program launched in march now it has five million members that's up from three million last quarter nichols so they're starting to use customer data to more effectively target guests instead early results show that members are increasing frequency after joining that program he also talked about layering company digital initiatives from second make lines to pick up shelves now rewards and said that they're still in early today's and they have room to run when it comes to their growth the company also increased its guidance for cops to high single digits for the full year the stock is up seventy percent year today and up more than one hundred and thirty percents nickel took over as c._e._o. last march lots of questions from analysts on the call all about how long this digital growth can sustain but executives mateen that they are in early days melissa back over when they use the customer data to better target customers kate what did they target these customers with i mean are they discounts or offer i mean what what what are they doing so there are some teasing going back and forth between analysts on the call on who's gotten some of those offers i think that that's the plan that they're they're starting to gather data about who's using this and with what frequency and then they can target them with things like maybe a discount or an offer something along those lines but once again he said it's still very early days there are learning about these customers how they visit the store and they're going to target them appropriately so carne asada in nachos nachos yep that's right when they've got that test kitchen that i've actually been city yes so i think that those menu items are certainly coming down the line they tend to put them out in markets and in that test kitchen see how customers react so all right we'll look forward to that kate thank you kate rogers on japodlay i cannot wait do a taste test we haven't done taste things come out we're going put them to the test how do we treat you poorly i would be passing on chipotle i mean i think there's a lot of execution risk here this thing's really expensive it's priced for perfection i'd much rather be in a company like grub hub right you're taking advantage of food delivery which is a big grub hub that's a stock that's been cut in half it's fifty percent off its all time high but you saw the same thing happened back in two thousand fifteen when they were entering new markets it was wing on margins as soon as the new order started to flow in the stock snapped back i see the same thing happening with gropups i'd much rather concerned about these investigations by the new york city councillors into its practices charging small businesses i mean that's something that we're keeping an eye on we did just see a little pullback in the greater new york area but it seems seems to be constrained to just new york so it's something worth keeping an eyeball on but you're talking about a stock that's fifty percent off its high so there's a lot of upside there he is the one thing about you paulie even with one hundred ten p. e. <hes> again terribly wrong in terms of my view on the stock doc for the last three hundred bucks so <hes> brian nichols done a great job the cops right now are still well ahead of the street and that that means the street has at least be upgrading where where they are for this company as the market price set in yeah but <hes> there's no question to me <hes> the investment digital has come with a cost <hes> and it seems like it it's winning or at least certainly the market's willing to reward that eighteen percent extra chicken now being sick and no being so the medium sauce hot sauce i have issues with that as i go to the cadeau bore the chapel events like an existential question is a burrito without beans really a barista percent i i'm not sure in by the way that was today's earnings resolves a real blow out today a burrito blurry i would say it's a blowout i just want to mention the streets behind it and we mentioned her a couple of quarters ago and you gotta give people when people get it wrong we crush them when people get ready to give props nicole regan piper jaffrey had this one called and attempts point a lot of analysts have been backwards on this and a lot of us on our desktop as well but she's done a great job now with that said i mean cops were fantastic i mean this stockinged ohio cops were great and margins regrets it's it's it's a great story the thing that's interesting to me the delivery part is you alluded to that you know yubari to sort of uber as sort of put some of their future in ubereats we see how important it is to japodlay see the mcdonald's i mean maybe there's something to it doesn't burrito by uber but there's definitely something happened all right speaking of food beyond insane beyond meat hitting another record high today's session we will break down some staggering stats in this incredible run went past money returns welcome back to fast money i'm melissa lee beyond me it's unbelievable rally continuing today the sock hitting another all time high shares the plant based meat company now up close to seven hundred percent bent since it's may i._p._o. and check this out today's move puts beyond its market cap at nearly twelve billion dollars and that makes the bigger then under armor macy's jetblue domino's and marathon oil guy by july twenty ninth their reported earnings this move in my opinion is people that have tried to maybe short the stock saying you know what we can't be short in earnings release let's cover can speak to the cost of barring the stock fundamentally we can off conversations nations about valuation clearly doesn't matter it's the addressable market the people are looking at and maybe beyond me it will be the only fake meat company out there with the said you have to believe competition it's coming down at some point it's such dangerous gave me i checked checked on the borrow today noboro used to be three hundred percent now it's no borrow so i mean this is just this has nothing to do with beyond meat anymore it's just a Within real beef no it probably isn't actually might be worse when you look at it so look. This is something that I would steer clear up. Yeah I have to echo thoughts that have been expressed on valuation and also the competitive landscape is such that I I don't understand what you're saying right and and by the way is this company now basically equal to one third of Heinz craft in which is the biggest food company in the world. It's absurd to even think we're encroaching on this is cut type of of a comparison so no I'm out but you know Kudos to those who who've been in and I do think it you know. Sometimes you let your winters run and your long-term greedy. I think you're being greedy right now all right up next the delivery wars. They're hating with U._P._S.. Making big. He plans to shake up the competition. We'll tell you how to play the space. Take a look at shares a snap soaring off its earnings report one traders betting on a big breakdown for another social sock when reports this week. Don't go anywhere much more fast money right after this welcome back to pass on a U._p._S.. Announcing it will begin delivering packages seven days a week. Let's get frank calling back at headquarters with more Frank Melissa that seventy service for residential and business customers starts on January. I Fedex remembers that it would do the same thing in May Jack Atkins from Stephen says this is really expected from U._p._S. to capitalize on the growing e-commerce market actions adding. That's going to be attractive. The ECOMMERCE shippers ECOMMERCE is the key to growth when it comes to the U._S.. Ask the core ground business which is B.. Two B. is not growing as fast as e commerce. It's a function of building a building of density. The more density you build the more profitable it becomes David Verner from Bernstein a bit more skeptical. He says there is a perception in the market. There Marge's charges have been under pressure with ECOMMERCE and they've had a hard time making sixty a week work if the domestic results are good tomorrow then the markets will buy into the idea if they're challenged. It'll add to the perception you're adding cost to a business that has not been great U._P._S.. Reports before the bell last quarter domestic ground revenues grew by two point nine percent however next air revenues they fell by three point six percent and operating profit it fell by nearly twelve percent. Perhaps adding to the perception that David Vernon was talking about the company making some news announcing a partnership with Michael's craft stores increase in the number of retail locations for pick up and drop off to twenty one thousand in the U._S. including C._V._S. in advance auto parts stores another announcement involves medical drone deliveries U._p._S. already testing in North Carolina. The company says says it's applied for F._A._A.. Approval to fly over people at nighttime and even out of line of sight of the operator under a subsidiary called flight four at auto focus on these medical deliveries through twenty twenty. Here's a stats keep in mind just to see how big this drone delivery market it could be fifty two percent of the thirteen billion parcel shipped every year they can actually fit in your mailbox beck over to frank. Thanks Frank Collin Becca headquarters so U._P._S.. Beating Fedex the seven day delivery this is the perfect time to play a little game that we played before we'll play with these two new candidates here picnic be Monty Monty tens. What do you think U._P._S.? Fedex so on valuation it's it's a no brainer it's Fedex <hes> and and while we've talked about Fedex trading at a valuation at times that hasn't mattered <hes> I think Fedex is finally started to turn around. Would Fedex is priced in is a lot of international weakness and a lot of cyclicality that I don't think you'd be S. U.. P. S. has in their price so for me. I think Fedex is frankly a better run company. It's why I usually trays at a premium and it does not now. That's why I want to do. You think that there's continued European weakness to the point where Fedex would have to incorporate more of that. We guidance going forward. I think has been out front with it. In fact the market at times has been a little disappointed because it was not what what they had told him the quarter before notice Fedex gave a couple of quarters in a row where it's like hold on a second <hes> I think they were very much <hes> straight in your face about what was going on in your seven days good for ups <hes>. I don't know we'll see we'll see <hes> the reservation <hes> just you know I think <hes> frank talked about is adding revenue without or are you adding INEX- you know not profitable right revenue. So that's a question I agree with Tim on Fedex. I liked evaluation better. I think you know Fedex matchup. Their troubles have been self inflicted wounds and I do think that they will get it together. I don't know when but when they do I think it won't trade it this kind of discounted Mar I haven't both much more infects than ep or the would you rather doesn't really work with Karen Tepper as well so based on valuations definitely cheaper and it seems like U._p._S.. Is trying to play catch up to Fedex Fedex is in the lead right now but you know if the global economy slowing I'd really rather not own either of these and I also think right now Amazon is really a big threat especially if they decide to move more of their logistics in house. I know you're going to bring up your stint at U._p._S.. And you wearing the brown costume with the Brown socks pulled up to your knees but what what what is your just to play devil's advocate because I have an affinity towards united parcel service. I'll take U._P._S.. Yes I understand evaluation argument. That technicians will say you have a major double bottom around ninety two from the low in two thousand and sixteen recent recent low. You're too level now. We're kicking close above one ten on occurrence release tomorrow. It's broken out of a major downtrend so U._P._S.. Mel Why not and I worked there and all the guys and gals. They're in the spring. Did you break out the shorts because they early on him. Okay sign up facebook shares lower in the after hours after the D._O._J.. Launched a big probe into Big Tech Company reports results tomorrow we will break down what you can expect welcome back to fast recapping the big news from the top of the hour the Justice Department launching a probe into big tech the news coming on the eve of FACEBOOK's quarterly report options writers bending on a big trouble for the social media giant when they report after the bell tomorrow. Mike got all the details so facebook options are implying about six and a half percent move after reporting earnings. That's in line with the longer term average move after earnings of about seven percent although I would point out that over the last four quarters has moved considerably really more closer to ten percent on average that might be what one trader was targeting. The largest trade we saw was a purchase of over sixty eight hundred of the weekly one eighty puts those traded for just under fifty cents ultimately over eleven thousand of them changed hands and that trader it'd be targeting a move to the downside of ten percent or more by the end of the week after they report all right Mike thanks for that for more options action tune into the full show Friday five thirty P._M.. Eastern time up next final traits the final trade about leadership in the market that is banks about city. Excuse me back who America which sits right in the Middle Citibank and J. P. Morgan basic yes some good news today out of Stanley Emily Black and decker and Sherwin Williams needs the League Home Depot will be given we won't see it till next month but I like pepper united technologies and other beaten race today in defense spending one thing both parties can actually agree on they'll throw in blackstone there Melissa Elissa. Can I just quickly before we get milk duds. The most underrated candy nuts right there evacuate smart five more fast money mad money with Jim Cramer starts now since eighteen 1896 S._N._p.. Dow Jones indices has been leading source for index innovation. We've always been committed to leveling the playing field with solutions for all investors as well as the cutting edge research and real time information investors need to navigate the markets confidently.

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Mad Money w/Jim Cramer 11/09/18

MAD MONEY W/ JIM CRAMER

44:47 min | 2 years ago

Mad Money w/Jim Cramer 11/09/18

"Why mission is simple to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field, all investors. There's always work at summer, and I promise to help you. Find mad money starts now. Kramer, well money walking Kramer, wanna make friends under trying to make some money by jobs. Not just entertain but educate and teach you so call me at one eight hundred seventy three or tweet me, Jim Cramer. I am telling you I'm telling you we are trapped in bizarro world. Again, the world where people soon that oil going down is somehow bad for the stock market. Sign of global economic weakness that could be a precursor to recession. Or the Dell was two hundred two points. Pete backslid point nine two percent. And the NASDAQ declined one point six five percent. Oils. Decline wasn't meet at the same time. Yesterday told us that it's ready willing and able to raise interest rates because the economy is too hot. Something is reflected in the very high producer price index got thirty between the feds simultaneously titan with the world's slowly. Well, investors. Plenty of reasons. Also, I think the feds reacting to old news and commodity and place may actually peaked last month. No one saying that. So I'm just out there doing it. I read the declining oils initial of supply overwhelming demand not demand waning. And you know what? When that happens. It's terrific for both consumers and for business. You're paying less at the pump industries paying less on the big Bill. But the last time we'll swim. You know, what we're plenty of hedge funds who set machines. It's algorithms to sell stocks. Every time the price of crude takes lower. They figure that the oil bear market is all about a lack of demand not surf that of supply. If that is your thesis, then you have to believe that we're headed into a serious lowdown, and that will result in a lot of a lot of shortfalls. I am not at that camp. I believe the opposite. I think lower actually creates a virtuous circle thing that people are negative, and it happened last time where we weren't say that hey, cheaper fuels actually good for how about ninety percent of the S and P five hundred ninety as long as it's caused by excess supply when you consider it the US Preussen twelve million barrels day, I remember when it was at nine, and we went out to the Bachan and people said it could never get to ten now, twelve okay? Abc's from just fierce go. So it's really hard to lead to demand issue when you see the supply pump. So what do you do with your portfolio? Nothing. What this nonsense play out get ready to buy some high quality, stocks companies, Ben floral class times working kin provided the fed figures out that inflation is going down not up. There's no hurry now with that mine. Let's take a look at our game plan for next week. It starts with of all things a Chinese company at home now. Norm, I wouldn't cover these companies Chinese companies in America all the time, but get this. This is a giant online platform for finding out about course. And I gotta tell you I'm concerned, at least from the point of view, the stock market that the trade war is hurting the Chinese economy that it's actually down slowly big now, personally, I am and have been from the Peter Navarro camp, he's the president visor who believes this time to fight back. If your years of the PR walking over us, this is I had when. Larry cudlow chief economic adviser battled me every night for three years, and Kudlow and Kramer said this is not something new anyway when China slows that tends to freak out lots of money measures. So it's important to know how the People's Republic is doing. Fortunately, China's listen, so many companies here, we can't get a pre reading our economy Alibaba today sounding good, you know, what the last time auto home reported it painted a grim picture of auto sales in China. You know, what I think it's gotten even worse. I'm regarding this companies giving us a key piece of data. We need to understand the world mosaic of commerce Tuesday. We are from Home Depot with the stock. That's down three points from its highs. Gotta pay people something that's probably unusual zoysia cluster. Rattus? High doesn't make any sense. Most investors have come to the conclusion that Home Depot should trade not with the soaring retail contingent. But with the sinking housing sector, I don't know what they can do to change the narrative, sometimes you just can't fight city. All here's a good if the clothes. We get results from till? Right. That's large publicly traded company. They were on our show, and we'll get our first real book at what's happening candidate post legalization. I think the stocks too expensive here. But I still wanna hear what that say Wednesday. Macy's reports in the last time the company told you how it was doing. The stock was well, let's say it was an avalanche of selling punching from forty one to thirty five in a single day. She says shown pep of thinking back to three seven bucks change. And I think you could have sustained power, but that last quarter makes me a big gun shy to tell you go buy the stock. I'm gonna listen to commentary about how the Chinese are lowering prices for the goods Macy's buys their subject to tariffs in order to keep the in China. We know that many apparel makers retail operations of trying to move their manufacturing away from China. We will speak to one later in the show and at the Chinese are starting to offer deals, then it's terrific news for the retailers head of the holiday season. We get their intended goose to and I've liked this apparel play for ages. Even as I've lamented leaving the doctor's soon, I think Canada goose is developing a worldwide business, and it's doing it. Well. Might be worth owning. For some speculation. The close Cisco reports I think this internet of things tech titan is really starting to hit it stride as a safe secure connector to all sorts of debt works, including the cloud. We've been telling club members of accidents plus dot com. Cisco's doing credibly well and it hasn't trip. Magic team is led by CEO Chuck Robbins. I'm looking for very good number augmented by the decline in price for love opponents. They if you can get it around these levels because it really hit badly today. I think it's a good thing. I think I cannot wait to hear what WalMart has to say when Thursday morning ISIS spectacle, be good. Walmart's last was Spanish hit in the stock has never looked back. And that we get another one. I think they're all nine numbers will be excellent too. I wanna listen to see if they talk about tariffs they buy time merchandise from China. But the main thing I care about is one hundred million people shot there every week. So let's get read in the US detectives any softy member. I don't think that's happening. It swipe still favored December rate the clothes. Get results from two major company. Semiconductor equipment maker pick of the litter. Plot materials say lambs better than them. I see both great companies. And then while maybe the best manufacturer these days on earth. Invidia, you know, it's my favorite space text been sake for months, and you could argue that self began when Applied Materials told us about pause into man, it was back in spring with wealth to hear that the pauses over. I'm not going to give you that green light. I think the stock the video let's say that the narrative here will be difficult this company, which makes the best graphics chips on earth, which faster, by the way that Intel's chips. Can you ever believe that someone could be faster? They have some fantastic or freeze for gaming for the data center for artificial intelligence for times driving. I think the reporting quarter I'm concerned that Invidia might flag that they could be facing difficult product transition to a new set of chips may be too advanced for today's markets. Well, that's a high quality problem. But it's a problem the less, so maybe it's one of those because down on the news. And then boom, and you have to pick it up. Okay. That's probably the way we do it Nordstrom sorry right on top. But they report it the close I've got mixed emotions about the department store chain should be doing well, but its shares of just twenty points since the beginning well since middle there's been a furious till rally going on. So I say, let's wait and see right now. The most recent sold this to- club. Members of action was supposed to come. Don't agree. It's been such a big run Friday. We hear from one of my favorite companies Viacom now Viacom's, the sister company, the troubled CBS, and I think that five beginning clips at sister company when it comes to earnings momentum. I like, but by doing the monetize intellectual property, it's cable, he's actually doing much better than I think people realize, and they are giving you paramount the fabulous at one time king of movies for free. Here's when we see this entire mosaic of earnings reports, we should get a pretty good snapshot Sumer still a strong. She's been. But of course, hopefully, not so strong. That the fed feels the need to reiterate that it needs to burn down the economic village in order to save it nickel rescue neck. Hello, JIMBO ya. State. Thanks for taking my call. Of course, like to know your -pinion on CenturyLink CTL longtime older of level three. And as you probably know CenturyLink bought level every year ago on a lot of dead. They do pay night give it on the last couple of quarters have been positive. I know they reported yesterday to be mixed. So we never ever ever in Kramer reach for a stock in order to get a big dividend. If we think even for a minute that dividend could being questioned and I thinking for a minute that the dividends dividend question. And therefore, let's move on how Bob in Florida. Bob. It looks like I just heard the music so Bob we'll have to wait for 'nother show calls back next week. Should give us a good read on the health of the consumer head also the Chinese consumer hoping for Goldilocks situation, not strong enough spook the fed material. Right. Just right is the name of the game online. And Jen to see if the company can contend deliver healthy returns, then you might not think much about rox is a foot fashion choice. But I'll tell you how the stock is become quite a looker these days, and there's nothing fun about funk owes latest quarter can turn around. We'll let me just tell you this. I'm going to talk with this e out so stay with roemer. Don't miss a second of mad money. Follow at Jim Cramer on Twitter. I have a question tweet Graber tag bad tweets sin. Jimmy to mad money at CNBC dot com or give us a call at one eight hundred seven four three CNBC something head to med money. CNBC dot com. Not so hot tape for the averages. Minute to talk about Amgen. The gigantic tech tock that just kind of chugging along. I started recommending Hampton back in may when this is one of the most hated stocks on Wall Street now, it's it's up one percent for the year. Making me feel pretty good viewing it my chapel toss which can follow by joining the actual pasta conklin. What makes him so attractive? You're part of it is the slowdown thesis. If you believe the fed is going to tighten to aggressively and really put the KYW box on the economy as I do and exactly the kind of keep putting up good numbers even in a slow economy. But there are plenty of by Tech's doing terribly here. So what sets this one apart civil this is incredibly well run company that's taking control its own destiny and it shows. So let me walk you through it at the beginning of twenty teen. Ambience quoth had been slowing for years. The company was stagnating, and it was hard to imagine the company be able to do anything about it. Where at least that's how it looked the reality are not to be very different. Now, there's so much to like about this one. That I am out there pounding the table ought Amgen. Starters Hamptons been buying back polo to stock. Here's a ton of money. Overseas company has a stagnant growth, but still generates for the twenty billion dollars year revenues rising margins there's a lot they can do to turn things around while it may not be sexy engine has a ton of cash. They had forty two billion at the end of the at the beginning of this year, forty dollars but much of it was overseas at the presence big tax reform passed engine was finally able to repatriate a lot of that money. They had the largest of amount of money overseas to market capitalization of any companies be one hundred so come February. I the company now a truly gargantuan by ten billion dollars top of the four point four billion dollar purchase program. They already had keeping one hundred twenty company, but that wasn't even best part engine towards they'd be doing the buyback very very quickly feel its Dutch tender auction. Okay. It's auction tender and remember this was in early February when the whole market Gorman bananas fall, remember engine stocks. So Madge started buying right away by early March, the company repurchased over fifty two million shares for one hundred ninety two dollars per share retarding seven percents here cap in a matter of case. However, the buybacks impact seemed to be short-lived once ancient finish stock him right back down because the Baltics was just so torn aid. Yes. This was a used statement of confidence from management, which is why recommended tenant 169 may second since. Then it's fourteen percent gain far outpacing the rest of the market. Of course, a buyback alone. Even the huge one is not enough to that is not a reason to recommend a stock. If the company isn't doing well, you need some reasonably that business will get better otherwise that by Beckman to before and you'll feel like a moron for buying alongside them. Fortunately, now our series of very strong quarters. And we've got plenty of reasons to like the stock to them stand out. We gotta talk about them. So you know, why we're doing this piece? I was management so eager repurchase. Ten billion dollars stock in February. Because Amgen knew they were about the launch of powerful new drugs. Aim Vic now you're going to get the start knowing this term aim of this is a preventive treatment for migraines. Millions of people have ever seen FDA approval. Just emit may for those of you who are lucky enough not to get migraines. These horrible often blinding empower Leising headaches can be really tough to treat aim Vig uses a novel approach blocking in particular peptide receptor a protein that carries chemical signals from one cell to another that's associated with migraines. And the data we've seen Sommese half the patients who took this drug. So they're number of days with migraines. Reduced by fifty percent or more when they have to approval came down Amgen and partner Vardis ready. The drug was available to patients week later. Now, you need inject this thing, but it comes in its own auto injector and knowing stab yourself with at once a month. Ching. The costs about sixty nine hundred dollars a year. Which is a small price to pay help overcome a real disability, especially if you're insurance companies footing the Bill so far the numbers have been just off the charts. Fabulous Hwange, a reported makes hits best revenue growth since the end of twenty sixteen mashed raise the for your forecast with giving him a boost by the time. The company is third quarter results of a couple of weeks ago. We knew this drug was winter on the conference. Call Amgen's executive vice president global commercial operations said that amity, and I quote represents one of the strongest launches that I've seen in my experience of this industry both within this therapeutic area. And even more broadly end, quote, they've already got over one hundred thousand patients taking they give you a free sample the beginning. So kind of really like it. And we'll many of these people are still in the free trials engines benefiting from a huge amount of pent up demand because just aren't many treatments for migrants. Plus, the company tells us that wears the drugs still just ten percent ten percent of on patients who that might help. So there's still plenty of room to grow. And listen, I know I know him that works because I take it myself. I was averaging about twenty eight migraine days a month. Horrible. Now I clock in about four or five it for just four months. Tell you. This thing is saving lives. It's incredible. That's how I I got onto Jim store. At the beginning. You're everyone was pretty about. How I am. Jim would replace this law sales. Come the old drugs have come up against new competition. Biosimilars thank the last it because mile got a real good buzz similar that it's chip chipping at the stories about how Amgen's own drugs are performing though, that's a much better narrative second there's another one that I've tried to get frankly, it's, but this this is tougher to get into into the it's expensive. It's called repack them. But we can talk about the expensive second repairs as the company relatively new therapy that helps reduce LDL cholesterol. That's big a few years ago. There was this massive high stakes race between Amgen and the combined forces of Sanofi regeneration to come up with the next generation anti jokes. Because we have plenty tons of information shosha bad cholesterol, high bad for you, many investors figured that these things would quickly become blockbusters after all doesn't America have a horrible epidemic. But when repair and Santa Fe regenerates pro probably got FDA approval back in two thousand fifteen they were both pretty expensive costume. Fourteen thousand year now calling all the data. The new drugs are superior to old fashioned statins like the tour that I can't take frankly, more effective at preventing strokes and heart attacks fewer side effects. This should be a slam dunk but most generic these days, so they only cost a few hundred bucks. Here surprise surprise. Both these pricing new therapies ended up disappointing by thousand seventeen pathogen just three hundred nineteen million sales not bad naps Bill plus billion dollar blockbuster. It was supposed to be the future Amgen early. This year, though, things got worse when Santa femur general used to deal with Express Scripts be a signal to sell their next gen cholesterol drug at heavily discounted products up prices head we discount so repacked the sales quickly came under pressure. So Amgen cuts her own drugs prices by six percent recently to get roughly competition now, why am I so excited about a price which wouldn't normally sound like some active desperation, right? According to three quarters of Medicare patients never even fill the repair of prescriptions because it's so darn expensive out of pocket cost from now much much lower. And that should give this truck. A major boost you cut the price book expand the universe by so many people it's going to work. Why the announcement was that's why initially wins not got hit on the rally. We're going to begin here. A lot of good studies that say far more people should be on Ripalda because the data shows that everybody competitive for much lower big question. So let me the bottom line is pretty exciting story ended is taking Trovato destiny and with the stock to selling it thirteen times earnings thirteen I think this one could have a lot more room to run. Let's go to Bill in South Carolina Bill. Yes, sir. Jim bill. To you about ebbing. Yeah. I bought the shares back in February pretty close to the purchased more June. As it come down. Lots of good things. I read about the company, but their shares continued to deteriorate one big drug, and it's the biggest drug Abol time. Okay. And there are companies that are coming up with biosimilars that are challenging and they're they're cutting the price up. What you're absolutely right advocates great company, but because of the one drug that is going to have to tail off. I don't want you to buy it. I just don't want people into stock. Oh, darn it. I went to talk more about this. Anyway book, I think engines got more room to run because they've got some terrific things going cluding ambig- and the Pathan if you going to keep tightening and just the kind of company that kick will still show. Good results. Even if the fed crosses the economy, but it might add looking for the newest fashion brand tell you how fashion is making pretty profits for. Surprise. Then fun co might be known for his toys, but it's dropped today's no game. See you can turn it around. And what Norwegian Ralph Lauren and down to pot or in Konic, stay with Kramer. Surprised me? I thought I was hoping mind fell. But may when I see that crocs the company that makes these Oso stylish clog things has seen stock double in year including mammoth twenty-seven percent run yesterday. I'm almost speechless early. America crocs. These things have come back invoke all the crazy things that have happened last few years. This is the one that makes me think that we are indeed living in bizarro world. But I'm not going to quibble with consumer crocs selling the stock is either pulled back substantial today DEM with hip perset clue. No, arguing with taste. Still I keep getting calls about crocs, and I've been reluctant to answer. Because frankly, wasn't quite sure what to make of this companies miraculous resurrection the quarter. They're pretty yesterday, though, we need to address this thing had one understand for the better part of this decade. This talk of the written off and left for dead crocs for well kind of a joke. I guess got so bad even as as recently as last you people were concerned about the company's by ability as a going concern. And then the stock takes off at its lows last year, Cox was telling for less than six bucks. Now. It's twenty five. What's drive is incredible resurgence? I let me give you a little history list when the world was young and this show had just gone the air, probably about three thousand episodes of go, frankly. Okay. What happened is clocks came public and the stock really caught fire for brief period. They're comfy lightweight. We're looking shoes. We're extremely popular. I mean, I don't know if wherever cool ever not might apartment, but they. Were you BIC witness from the IPO two thousand six to the beginning of the fans of crisis the stocks Queen higher, then it plummeted back to earth during the recession. For stage, you mind recovery until twenty eleven but the sales started slowly and by twenty fifteen by twenty fifteen they were. Negative. The numbers have been terrible. And you can understand why everyone is soon the fat simply passed and crocs with more than a punchline as craters mortgages over in late two thousand thirteen black student got involved in an activist capacity Alson Ascione grabbing cheese, then Steve Cohen controversial measure took a major stake in the business in two thousand fourteen crocs a bit restructure again. The numbers were still awful. But the company started streamlining the business while closing underperforming stores. The thing is turn arounds as we know on this show can take very long time and Kroc spent a couple of years lost in the wilderness waiting for the turn to bear fruit. The numbers continued to stink. By March of last year. The board of directors is getting impatient they removed. Another CEO promoted crocs president Andrew reads to the top spot while mounting even more restructuring like in the store Cam from five and fifty eight locations about four hundred and cutting costs to the bone. Last spring Kwok's out a new ad campaign. Designed to beat new life into the brand including that big thirty second manifesto with John Senate and true Barrymore as well as Asian celebrities. Like Andy Lau from Hong Kong unil- in from Korea. Played really well the turnaround for started paying off the numbers eight improve albeit gradually by the time. The summer of two thousand seventeen rolled around. The stock was beginning to balance off its lows. And things kept going, right? Clocks built out a terrific digital direct consumer business. And as we seem from many other powerplays, including cutting out the middleman is great for your earnings when it's done, right. Insure Cox makes a lot more money when they sell us online at the store went the biggest driver of the comeback was I mean, honestly, it was about something beyond the company's control. Uglies back a gleese back in these plummets with Risa be athlete your business, by the way, Sarah Isan was at chronicle that well, more and more people are buying comfortable shoes. And clothes rather than you know. I mean, Google ones, I mean teve is our back birkenstocks they're really hideous there. And why may catch some plot for CEOs are back to an while. They haven't are conic. Look, let's just say there are a lot of people who think short for ugly. I think he's true for sixty seven percent. The sixty seven percent gain is paired Deckers had so far this year alone. Bazaar me like a mug monthly thanksgiving surgeons of substance over style sort sales stop shrinking and turn positive in the fourth quarter of last year up. Six percent, the martyr's creep backup. Heck the company managed to turn a small profit last year. And it's twenty eighteen is going on numbers. Just get better better and more company rolled out its new product. I one New Year's a softer lighter. Sandal called. White right selling by. Well, meanwhile, the company's been executing fabulously in may crocs liberty. Nice top Bottomley beat magic raising full year revenue guides. They played again, they reported Nagas suddenly became clear to shoot investors crocs are actually popular again. In fact, according to a survey conducted by Aaron Murphy's fabulous retail team at piper Jaffrey there could I'm not kidding teenagers. They love crocs. Can you among all teams? The Bram was ranked number thirteen up from twenty seven last full company really companies really doubling down on this demographic. Which is why they just signed a partnership with post Malone postponed. Right. The rapper with always tired tattooed across his face. I mean, LA if I don't shares ethos their limited edition postponed style clogs went on sale last week. How long's can talk how to our sold out ten minutes. Which brings us yesterday morning when clock supported phenomenal. I mean, really, and it was because they had an absolutely incredible back to school season. Company's supposed to lose two cents a share. Okay. Instead, they made seven cents. Sales increased by seven point eight percent year every year. The best growth rate at least twenty quarters guidance for the next quarter was stronger than expected there. Twenty five is they called from mean single digit growth now that may not sound like much, but remember your people one of clocks even had a few. Hey, they wouldn't even exist. Yesterday's results positive deters real. So it's no wonder this talk. Search twenty seven percent on the news. Of course, pullback ten percents, some people aside to ring the register. But what do you do? Now. It's timber. I've got a question about Kwok's Allen in Nevada. Okay. And I said I'll get back to but we were a little busy with that Tober mad this market fall apart. And all I ever rented stock was at twenty one Twenty-one. Now's twenty five I missed that move. I own that. But you know, what it's not crazy speculation crocs, even a pure. Although I sure you'd like to wait for pullback before you pull the trigger and don't even think about owning crocs, please with your tire money. This is the kind of thing only by with funds that you can afford to lose. Bottom on two years about a performance clocks back and forth. Suddenly popular a whole new generation consumers. I think the company deserves a lot of credit for this turnaround. But I wouldn't buy the stock crocs unless you're real dare devil because Betty teenagers. Will let's just say is always all risky proposition. Let's go to Bethlehem home state, New Jersey path. Cam yoyo bet what's up. I wanted to say huge eagles fan. Go eagle go backwards. So. Doc for one this week. I wanted to your opinion of the future of key j Mack. You know, what I wish everybody was put their stocks are so many companies that have no stock splits. Its crushing them. I think that TGI is going higher. Matthew. I think it's the one to own in the sector, and I've gotta tell you please companies that have hundred hundred clear four split your stock. So our investors who watch this show who watch this show can buy you these thousands dollars. Stocks derive ATS wrote rule split your stock thrive and sake. All right. Guess what's in? Uglies in which is good news for me and crocks. Now talk. But as any pair knows the tastes teenagers, always changing. So wouldn't buy the stock right now. I don't mind taking a little risk how there's so much tonight. I talked about a funk shares thunk talked twenty percent today load hidden come in case for self. I'm asking them, why are some stocks being treated like they just can't do anything. Right. I'm giving you my read on what the market's got war in this cycle. And which sucks should you be buying the pace of all this negativity and all your calls rapid fire. Tonight's digital lightning around and a look back at the week. That was he's are priceless. State. The the millier, but can these figures big business for bunko a month to forget, but for investors this DACA, collectible? A few weeks ago? I told you about a rapidly growing little toy maker called fun go that I got a call about Funchal makes lots of licensed, collectibles, figurines laid to movies and TV shows sports musicians, the numbers look good in this talk and pull back so dramatically from its highs. That gave me my blessing by speculation for the next couple of weeks stock search higher, but then last night Funke reported, and well, let's say the mortgage reaction has been very fun. Stop plunge a more than four bucks twenty one percent. But here's the crazy thing. The court wasn't that bad funk deliver better expecting sales earnings. They raise the full your forecast stance. Both the top and bottom line. So what is going on your well phone calls quotes, margins declined people's to worry about that? But this seems like it makes three move off. This news to me. Well, let's just say it looks good quarter or some heroin. Not perfect kind of thing that should raise twenty percent for stocks. Feed us out. So let's take a closer local Brian Mariotti. He's the CEO of Funke get a better sense of the quarter companies doing as we head into the holidays, Mr. Mariotti walking money. Thanks a lot Jim excited to be on the show. Brought I gotta tell you. I think first of all before we get into the actual the quarter. Guess what you do because people probably see your stuff. Didn't know you. Well, you know, what we're at index fund of pop culture, we connect fans to the things they love, and there's so much things out that are amazing sports music television movies video games. We are like a fast fashion company for pop culture. We hold more licenses any company on the planet. We connect those amazing different products to their fan bases. We do it on a global basis. And you know, what we love what we do. Now. For instance, people may not understand they think of babies could only be Hasbro, but you or Mattel, but you have a lot of Saint Disney licenses of evergreen properties. Yeah. Look, we are disruptive for a very different business model in the digital toys space, the idea that we can be the first to market with things that resonating use evergreen content with Disney and marvel and Star Wars along great things like Bob Ross, and golden girls and overwatch and fortnight in sports teams, very very different business model. We leveraged. I think it was close to five hundred fifty properties alone in Q three. That's a recipe for success that kind of diversity. I'd be five hundred and fifty one I happened to catch maybe your most bestseller for for the holiday seasons. And this is a pop mad money. See and there I think this ideal. Now, here's what how can you do these so fast? I mean, here's actually a me. And I am sure that you can do many of these this speed would seem to be taking out fast. You can do these. Well, that probably is the biggest seller that de Jim Cramer bad money pop this. This forget about fortnight big big tiles is probably you. It's going to be being the one on the on the forefront of everybody's mind for for Christmas. But you know, what we have an amazing team of passionate pop culture junkies at our company love working on what they do. They put their heart and soul into every one of their designs. And that's why we moved so fast. We just have a passionate energetic company. Okay. Now, I know in the conference call and tell me about what are you doing make obviously a lot of. In China half of it's made outside of China. You're talking about moving substantial part of your manufacturing out of China. Be more agnostic about where you make things. Yeah. I think we just realized that there's opportunities there outside of China to produce. And we're not really concerned about the tariffs. And that's not really our primary decision. Making on why we're moving it out there. We're looking for the best factories. The move the fastest the highest quality the best price the most consistent production. It just happens to be a lot of that is working outside of China. And we figure by the end of next year. We should be about seventy percent of our manufacturing should reside outside of China. It seem that I guess people were upset with the gross margins. But you made some very good points at the fourth quarter. You can have a really good relationship with WalMart. Lot of good things ahead. You had the movie scheduled for Disney X year. So maybe this is just a speed bump, we actually were kind of mystified by why the stock hurt so Bailey, frankly. Yeah. We don't really worry about that. Look we love what we do. We put our head down. We know we have a business model that works. It's been proven on a global basis we keep working tail off work at put our head down. And and not really be concerned about watching the stock. The last thing you need to do is be focused on what Wall Street thinks it's our job to meet and beat expectations on a quarterback quarter basis. Also to get out there to educate people what our company does we're relatively new company. We think we're doing a phenomenal job of doing that it we're gonna continue to do that continued to educate Wall Street on why pop culture is a business. They should be because our retailers all around the world believe they should be in that business. And the other thing is is just get people excited about what our businesses and how disruptive it is. We're doing a better job of educating Wall Street. What's most locked that? You do. Smallest quantity. Yeah. Yeah. I look we're not really concerned about spreadsheet analysis when it comes to making things that we know on the on the forefront of pop culture, great examples are golden girls and Bob Ross are just things that brought people back to things they love in their childhood or in their teens or in college years, and ultimately putting him in a format excites. People in the lights are in consumers. And what happens is they blow up. You know, you do something where you think you're making five or ten thousand Bob Ross next thing, you know, you're selling five hundred thousand Bob Ross pop that's kind of the recipe for success lead with the heart. Noah pop culture is about and then kick butt and how about the holiday season seem strong to you cost consumers buying. Yeah. We're we're really excited. We're in a great position, inventory wise with our retail partners sell through rise of retail partners better year over year than we were last year the appetite for our product is amazing on a global basis. We're in great position for q four, and we love what you. Thousand nineteen looks like how about four night. What are you doing? Well, we're the first one to grab a license for the first one to have the product in the marketplace in our categories. So we think we have a competitive advantage. There early sells through seem very very positive. I think it's I think this is going to be a great property for us. The always ask you about the lot was totally self centered. We're about to have our three thousand show and I wanted to get everybody at eight Jim Cramer. But maybe we could probably make something like that happen. All right. Thank you. I like your company very much primary Ottis CEO Funke. Thank you so much. Great to see you. Thanks for having us on. Hey, it's kinda cool. Come on. It it. It is. What? Lightning round is over Har you right ask that is the ninety watery Walter. Oh, yeah. Walter. Meghan. Homework and found out. They bought a company for like one point two billion dollars. And a warning what you're actually very much. But sir, I gotta tell you that we are in a house fair market that is even being made an exacerbated by j pan. So I can't even four percent yield say you should buy Johnny Kevorkian Gye. Jim, you know. Belly? I loved jock. He knows exactly used to live with Mike Clark. What's up? Exactly, we've been doing some homework caveman. And we think the of a big taping during these political things, what do you think of a p of? No. I like, I think the terrific. Understand. It's just good be stalled here until the tech gives us a little more direction. I to wreck economy. Let's go to Dave. Hey, Jim in west, Los Angeles. LA? I lived there too. Did I I quote where his PICO? Oh, yeah. And he stole from me. That's where I lived in Macari. What's up? I've got I bought a stock after I saw him as a guest on your show integrated device technology catching. You gotta take bit take that money off the table. Cashmere sweater how about Richie in New Jersey rish. Hey, jen. Thanks for taking my call. All right, relaxed insist to buy fifty crazy show being getting granted you. That. Thank you. And I'm calling about where bouncing around a lot in two months, you'd think at the good time to pay Rashid. Let me give you two square sisters square for the plenty of business person. And they are spending a lot of money to be able to win any arms race. And then there's this from the point of view of the stock people say they're spending too much money when the arms race. So what I'm gonna say is don't have time for another. I'm going to go to Matt and Georgia, man. Hey, Jim, this is from Atlanta Georgia weekend. Blue ya to you see the Super Bowl. Hey, I know you've been a big fan of cedar fair symbol F U N for the old gamers day haven't been much fun Lali. What's going? It's not they got to come on. Because Dr that group has gotten very very hard. But I gotta tell you. I still think plenty of money to cover the dividend. But it's not my favorite right now. And that is the conclusion. Sponsored by marriage. Money. What you kidding? Mistake. You're part of overall. Professional never he's hot for while. Fag. Candy. Then it's knee end. Sorry. This scenario results in dramatically slower economy. Then you just killed the MO Jo. I gotta get some chest. Sometimes the mortgage just asking to Dohrn much forgiving company starting to rankling we've seen so many great numbers this quarter in the market has yawned or even trash their stocks for no good reason. Other than this perception take yesterday. Okay. This Norwegian cruise lines good company new region cruise line holdings. Formerly reporting a terrific set of numbers told a solid story. We had the moon stock bench rally, buck and change least come back from the depths word trading. Fifty seven to forty one. The court. So this grower selling tickets ten times next year's earnings. Hearings and remains dam where the eight percent year what is crime. It's being viewed as a sickle company with the boom and bust stock and everybody's acting like we're headed into bust. I think that's playing wrong cruises are sold out all of its ships, including the portion of asleep for next year, sixty five percent of the overbooked for heaven's sake. Who is that kind of visibility? How can that sickle company Frank del Rio the excellency ios everything can to try to convince people stock as anything but cyclical but the Jackson's just keep on coming Jefferson number one. They can't make any more money can cost beyond the room. Totally wrong. Every week makes little more from Custer's with this onboard fees for different accoutrements, this kind of thing that people justified we hate but business perspective terrific, number two. There's too much capacity on in the industry prank will tell you he needs all that capacity. You say, okay, how about this? How about the fact that the Alaskan situation is just to me. Empirically true the fleet up. There has fifteen percent more capacity this year, and it's going to have a twenty five percent increase in reverence. That's impure data people. It's fine. Dad? Lots of new ships as long as to me in for them. Three dying industry. Only people Christmas dope. All the baby boomers are still the biggest money. Now regard cruises. They've been flocking. There's good repeat business younger people outta my twenty four year old daughter loves cruises in part because they're so darn inexpensive. Never four wall cost going up. And so their margins will be squeezed. Wait a second. Have you noticed that oil this longest streak down for you on this oil bear market thesis? The only copies have benefit from pungent oil prices. More lines are the airlines, but it doesn't matter. The industry wrongly has been written off the sickle to be fair. Yes, Anything relies so heavily on the consumers hostage to the business cycle. But in a lot less cool than we thought Dow DuPont. It's been regarded as totally coming even I could argue that it's three divisions. Totally specially operations with high growth. You don't deliver numbers that are up. Ten percent. You're you're in this environment. Where many can stocks are collapsing. If you're tickle, but do pine has collapsed more that any other. I think it said wrong walking specially too much from this company. I wish I could say these show me stocks. But the truth is they've shown they're doing great. It should be. Enough already stick with craving. Our big bedroom. Stay show on Monday. I'm excited about this. Huge guests, Kevin Johnson CEO from Starbucks. Kevin Mandy SEO from fire hoick as an air force veteran. This is going to be terrific. And of course, the studio audience that I'll be proud to have your debts. Their families active duty folks from all over the country, by the way, just before we go guy works Cuervo Micron. Wow. Semi's getting killed. I like say this audible worker. Just your money to hell.

China fed CEO Jim Cramer Amgen Kramer America Jim US WalMart Bob Ross FDA Los Angeles Disney Bob Abc Home Depot New Jersey
Tesla's Cybertruck: Win or Fail?

The Energy Gang

50:23 min | 1 year ago

Tesla's Cybertruck: Win or Fail?

"The energy gang is brought to you by Sun. Gro Son grow is the leading solar invert or supplier by volume in the world. And it's now leading player across the Americas with more than three gigawatts shipped in the last two years later in the show. You're going to hear a story about one of the people who's responsible for shipping out those converters and there's a lot of complexity when you got that much consume going out. You need to have the best people who are taking care of those logistics to find out more about son grows converters for battery systems and for Solar Systems. uh-huh go to Sun Gro. POWER DOT COM from Green Tech Media at. This is the energy gang weekly debates and discussions on the fast changing world of energy. I'm Stephen Lacey. Contributing editor for GTM. Welcome to the show. uh-huh truck buyers are historically some of the most brand loyal auto consumers recent survey suggests that loyalty is loosening a bit into the picture steps Elon. Musk ask who dropped the Tesla's cyber truck earlier this month this space-age pickup truck concept is truly Putting the shift in consumer preferences to the a test. It's also tearing a lot of opinionated people apart so in this episode. What is the cyber truck and where might it fit into the emerging electric truck market then some policy action action aside from impeachment hearings in the presidential election? There's a major tax bill in Congress right now that would be a boon to renewables. What are its chances and finally? What would we do with the million dollars? We answer a listener question in Washington. DC is Catherine Hamilton. She's the chair of thirty eight nor solutions. Catherine what is what is the chair. Do what is that. Exactly it It's for sitting on the chair. And just you know we I help God. The mission of the company in very close partnership with our managing partner Isaac Brown where Co Owners Arts and we work very closely together on making sure that we are aligned with the mission. What we WANNA do and what we want to get done and how we want to impact the future? Should we all be co CO chairs of this podcast instead of Co host and he would have to be co chairs I would call Catherine the beating heart of thirty eight. I feel like I'm the bleeding heart and my partner Isaac is is the beating heart actually Jigger Shah is. The president of generate capital Jagger. Does the title President does that. Come with any special perks when you're in the airport or at the grocery store no it's largely ceremonial right. Like the Free Lounge you get with your your credit card is always the presidential lounge right. That's the that's my title. Although I heard you cannot be indicted comes it comes with a couple of get out of jail free card by now. Most people have probably probably seen the Tesla cyber truck. If you haven't just go ahead and Google it. It'll make this conversation a whole lot clearer. It's a truck that looks like it came out of an eight bit video radio game or a retro future illustration from the seventies the design. 'cause a lot of strong opinions for and Against Alon didn't have the best. Reveal of the cyber Truck earlier this month just before Thanksgiving after driving on stage through flames and talking about how tough it is. He asked his design chief to throw a metal ball at the window to prove its unbreakable ability and it smashed the window not once but twice. Here's a piece of tape from that moment glassless. Aw by well. Maybe that was a little too hard that it didn't go through as a side by it. Really Okay Man. Go through watching this video. It's so embarrassing erasing. I cringe thinking about being up there on stage. At that moment you can see it in Musk's face Definitely not planned foibles. Aside Tesla's truck reveal has caused much debate over its place in the booming light duty truck market a market that will soon have a lot more electric models. So let's talk about about what the cyber truck means for the electric truck market. Generally I to the Tesla reveal Jigger first reactions well L.. I mean I'm not going to buy one but I think it went really well. I mean I think that that literally everyone is talking about it. Everyone has a strong opinion on on it. Everyone wants to you know. Make sure that their two cents are deposited in his Piggy Bank. And so in general I think he had had phenomenal phenomenon launch. And like I just think he'll like he's laughing all the way to the bank Catherine. What was your reaction to the truck? Itself said it's just a huge caveat for everybody listening. I'm not a car person so like I'm not the kind of person whose heart beats faster when I see anything like the roadster webster or anything like that just because I spent a lot of time on buses and you know we have like a very kind of just regular old hybrid vehicle that we use to get around so so like I looked at it and said Oh that looks like a homer or something. It looks like an armored vehicle but hoops. It's not really an armored vehicle because you can break it really easily And I just did not like the design because I you know but that's a personal opinion. I think that's totally athletic. I've heard from a lot of people who did but I don't think think that's even really the point. Jigger said the point was for him to get out there. Get some publicity and kind of get people jazzed. Because he wants to be on the edge of all all of this and that's good that's good for everything else in the industry if he's out there on the edge and puts out things that are just wild and different and interesting that that gets people thinking about it and talking about it and saying oh well maybe when I get my f one fifty electric truck. That'll be just as cool. Let me just read to you. From what what Piper Jaffrey said they said and the more. We looked the more. We began considering the possibility that all other pick-up trucks might actually be pretty crummy army. And the Tesla cyber truck is the only pickup worth ordering or at the very least it no longer seemed far fetched. The Tesla might sell two hundred thousand plus units per per per year in the United States. Like I just think that like the fact that Piper Jaffray would even write that in their investment briefing for the cyber truck is just like we've turned the page like a new dawn for Tesla. I mean there's a whole bunch of unsubstantiated reports that their their Taiwanese part suppliers already shipping parts for the model wise. So it's probably going to be launched six months earlier than Tesla believes. Probably Start Shipping in early You know twenty twenty and then separately. There's more data that shows that the model three is the third most selling car. You're in California. All of California. All classes of cars like down the model threes number three in all classes. I'm I'm just saying Tesla's doing pretty well right now. I don't know jigger so your gauge on whether this is successful is whether Elon Musk can be more like P. T. Barnum and just generate height. Well whatever I'm just saying like at some point. We have to acknowledge that like he. He actually makes money in the same same way. That Richard Branson makes money right. He is in a market where you normally spend ten billion dollars a year on advertising zing with the Super Bowl and everything else and he has said you know what I will be able to get ten billion dollars with the free advertising just by making things this crazy and he does whether he's calling somebody a pedophile and Thailand. Or whether he's actually like launching this weird ASS PONTIAC AZTEC looking king cyber truck right again. I'm not going to buy it. There might be other people who listen to this podcast. Who Love it either way? He got his ten billion dollars of free press. This will be remiss that the tech journalist wrote a really great piece about how this vehicle is just for Tesla lovers like it's a truck that came straight out of Elon Musk's head. He didn't do any background research. She doesn't care about what people think. What kind? What kind of consumers by trucks he just sort of threw out this design? And it's a trap for people who already love Tesla. If we're going to revolutionize the light duty truck space which is continuing to make up a greater share of automotive sales. We need something more than just a truck for Tesla lovers. But I don't think he's trying to be the answer to everybody's dreams of trucks. I think he's he. He puts things out there that he sees have some kind of desirability and for him this one seems like something he really wants and he did the same thing with the roadster and look where it got. Adam eventually got two models that other people could afford and I think that's what he does. He wants to put something out there. That's really different. The changes the conversation. It gets people talking about it and I don't see that there's anything wrong with that. I don't think he has to be the answer to the future of our trucks. Not only is there nothing wrong with that is actually by definition the solution remember. He's a lot more like Branson than he is like. Steve Jobs I get the fact that everyone wants to compare it to Steve. Jobs in because apple is now ubiquitous and all that stuff but like brandon has never been ubiquitous right when you think about Virgin Atlantic or whether you think about like virgin mobile he always says small market share but a better consumer experience in a more rabid consumer base. And he makes he's billionaire based on that and the same thing's true here he is a rabid base of supporters. So you have two point three million trucks a year sold in the United States and if he gets a hundred thousand or two hundred thousand trucks year on the road remember the Ford F.. One fifty is probably going to be electric three years earlier than they were projecting because of eline right Ribian probably got money from investors because because people wanted to compete with Ilan. So like like the again i. I don't care whether I liked the cyber truck right like I make lots of personal decisions. That people people find distasteful like I buy all my clothes brooks brothers people are like. Why do you look like Brooks brothers? I get it right. That's not your taste. I like to be lazy but at the end of the day like you know it's not about me. It's about the people who are going to buy his product and all the supply chain benefits from that come from that. All of the efficiency of the drive train like he's blowing people's minds every day around the minute micro efficiencies right just over over the air software. UPDATES increased people's range on their vehicles by fifteen miles right. That's crazy okay. So three brands in the. US control troll over ninety percent of the truck market. Do you think with this model Tesla can break in and start to move electrification in light. Duty trucks well. I do think that they move the needle even if everybody isn't buying their vehicles as jigger said because as they can force everybody else to do something so this morning. GM and LG Cam just announced close to two billion dollar venture to manufacture batteries stories in Lordstown Ohio for Levi's and it's a union plant. So tussles not unionized. And what is so cool is like it is really keeping keeping all of these other companies on their toes and I think then you're going to get a better outcome from the traditional car manufacturers than you would have had. If Tesla weren't there. I totally agree. I think Athens exactly right. And the other thing I would say is that I think it would finally allow the electric utility companies to get off their ass. It's amazing thing to me. How low percentage of their fleet is electric? And they keep complaining. That it's because we don't have any trucks will now they'll have like eight trucks to choose from and I hope they finally get on the stick and replace all of these fleet vehicles that they have with electric. I think one of the reasons why I had the somewhat negative reaction to this launch is not because I disagree with the idea that you need to push the envelope or come up with something new that gets people talking about trucks. It's it's back back to this fundamental belief that I don't think this is a truck that can get to the masses. I think it's four people who already love Tesla and who are already probably going to buy an electric vehicle and that's tapped tapped out market right. I mean you. It's it's people who can afford to already by an electric vehicle a high end electric vehicle. It's going to get pretty expensive. And with all the add on's and you're not necessarily reaching the class of customers who aren't paying attention to Tesla I wanNA reach. You know the farmer in Texas Texas or the construction worker in Minneapolis or whatever And I don't think that this cyber truck is going to do that and and you know what he of course must. It doesn't have to do that. I mean he can do whatever he wants and if he wants to push the envelope with great design then more power to him. I'm just saying that if you're looking at a market where seventy percent and of vehicle sales are light-duty vehicles. You're not gonNA move the needle if you're just building a car. That only rabid fans are gonNA love or truck. That only rabid but fans are gonNA love so Stephen. I think you have a point with that. The the pickup truck market in the US Is over just over. Three three million. And you're right that a lot of those are people who need to be hauling things as opposed to people who just like the idea of hauling things but I think what you're going to see is that with joint ventures like the G. m. l. g. m. l. g. Kim venture or Ford F. One fifty or the Ribian on partnership with both Ford and Amazon for a lot of their trucks. You're going to see lots and lots dozens and dozens of EV models. Coming out anytime between the next year and twenty twenty four and I think that's going to give people a lot more choices and let them see something that looks much more familiar and if it's like less expensive to operate eight and his much better performing I think people are gonNA start shifting. Yeah Catherine that brings us into a broader conversation about the electric truck market and where the cyber truck fits in so you. You said the the total truck market is about three million vehicles. We could see about two hundred fifty thousand electric trucks and production by two thousand twenty. One looks like demand might be only around seventy thousand trucks so I guess the question is will demand pickup and could something so different like the cyber truck actually increase truck sales. So I'm wondering jigger what you think about. What kind of models are in development? It meant We've got a model from Rivi 'em from Lordstown Motors GM and Ford pretty much all the major major auto companies and awesome startup. Truck companies are developing electric models. Do you think that this market will expand beyond this like conservative. -servative seventy thousand number by twenty twenty. One well probably not by twenty twenty one just because I don't think there's going to be that many models available by twenty twenty one. It's probably going to be a couple years. After after that but I will make a prediction. I believe that the cyber truck is going to take on escalade like cultural all significant and the people will be paying a hundred and fifty thousand dollars for tricked out cyber trucks. I think people are going to create an entire higher after market for the cyber truck. That has how culturally significant this truck will be and I think all the other standard options is Catherine talked about will be coming coming out in two thousand twenty one twenty two twenty three. Probably the last one to come out will be Chrysler because they seem to be nowhere. But like I think you will see A whole bunch of models come out and I think what you'll find is is that you may even have a lot of structural plug in hybrids so that you know you actually have both the engine and maybe forty miles of electric range so that people can get both. I'm still not giving up on apple by the way. Well if anything's GONNA make apple acquire this. This podcast is brought to you by Sandro. Sandro sells the most solar invaders in the world those inverted of the backbone of some of the biggest and most innovative projects and when you're putting such high volumes of power electronics in the the field. Every day you need people like Jill done to make sure everything goes smoothly. Jill is a project manager as Sandro caught up with her during a moment of downtime in the warehouse the time to Scott Pioneer. I didn't realize it was late already busy day already. Oh it all loses keeps it interesting. I guess Joe's job is to make sure everything in happens. Just the way it's supposed to that means converters are built to SPEC they're shipped on time and they fire up smoothly so if something needs to happen they go to you correct back. What's the consequence? One of those pieces goes wrong during commissioning. Luckily I can say that. I have not had any the central invertebrates during the commissioning. Not Turn on so I have not had Worry about that which is a wonderful thing. Nearly two and a half years that that Sandro and Jill has a completely clean performance record. That means she's in high demand with nearly three GIGAWATTS. Converters already booked for this year. Her schedule is packed. Oh Yeah I look at my calendar and my calendar of drew cue to an word of next year and that's pretty much all I can focus on it this time mm-hmm I don't WanNa look too much farther out at may scare me. I'm how much more is on there. It is shocking looking at it and it is absolutely wonderful looking at it at the same time with retard growth. You just need to be very organized and detailed and you can get through any project so maybe if analysts want to understand the growth of the industry. They don't have to crunch the numbers they just need to look at your calendar absolutely when you choose son grow and voters. You aren't just choosing best in class technology. Oh Gee you're choosing people like Jill who work around the clock to make sure those inflators are meeting the highest performance standards. There's a lot of steps involved you know. This is a very very intense a lot of stress a lot of pressure to get things done on time. The best part of this is being able at the end of it to hand off the report. The customer and you know have another successful project done so do customers feel like they can stand by the Jill done seal of approval. I I believe so you can get more information on Sun Gro Solar and storage and voters at Sun. GRO POWER DOT com. There are a couple of major pieces of clean energy legislation on the table right now in Congress one is somewhat realistic when his aspirational are. We going to get another major boost for renewables through the tax code. It's The bill the tax bill itself has got a lot of support from typical industry green groups but it also comes at a time and researchers are increasingly saying. Hey this kind of policy is great but it's not anywhere close to sufficient to drop in greenhouse gas emissions so while we continue to focus on the things that we we can get done in politics which is funding renewables through the tax code. We still lag in other areas of policy in terms of decarbonisation. So let's talk about the bill itself in the maybe we can. Broadly contextualize it to the tax bill. I Catherine what's in it. Yes so there. This is a house. Bill that the was introduced by Mike Thomson from California and he is on the very powerful ways and means committee. That is run by Richie Neil of Massachusetts and this Green Act as they call it extends the Solar Investment Tax Credit and offshore wind tax credit by five years. It puts geothermal and fuel cells back in it extends a sixty percent production tax credit for wind for five years and includes a standalone energy storage investment tax credit. It adds waste energy recovery to the bill. It lifts the CAP on TV's to six hundred thousand instead of two hundred thousand and puts a ten percent adder of in for for heavy duty vehicles. It includes some environmental justice programs and also has efficiency credits back in extending Assam re upping others So it's really a big package and yet I would say it's not a crazy package so it. The original tax bill offered earlier this year in the session had a lot of what I would call poison pills in them for the Senate like the learned income tax credit. A lot of things that were just never going to happen. This is actually a serious proposal and so Minority Leader Schumer and the Senate has something to work quest where he can take this to his leadership to Senator Grassley. WHO's the chair of Senate Finance Committee the Tax Writing Committee over there? And say you know. Here's where we are so now. Let's let's have something to negotiate with. So is this something that is like normal end of your tax stuff or is there something unique about this bill. Well we're at at a point where there are a bunch of credits that have needed needed extending for a while we've needed to do the storage Tax Credit separately for a while Senator Under Grassley is very keen on getting a biodiesel credit done and so we're at a point where there is a lot of will. Bipartisan will to get this has done It's not going to be a standalone bill. So it would have to be attached to one of the appropriations funding bills. That are going to go at the end of the year but we are at a point where maybe not everything in this bill gets done all at once but we can get some of these things have a really good chance of getting done and then the rest. What we're looking at next year is of course election year so it's hard to get a lot done until after the election when you have this? Lame Duck session where you may want to clear the decks for the president in twenty twenty one whoever that might be and so there's an opportunity now before the end of the year and then there's another opportunity in the lame duck session In Twenty Twenty Catherine what there's this net zero emission bill. That's been moving around the house. Yes so this is very different so this is messaging bill. This is really a bill to set the the Democratic caucus goals and to get everybody aligned and what it is is it's net zero by two thousand fifty. It's not one hundred percent renewables by twenty fifty it's net zero and everybody is aligned. So Speaker Pelosi is behind this Frank Pallone who is the Chairman Energy and Commerce Committee who has is going to be also introducing his own climate bill before the end of the year at least working draft and then Kathy Castor. Who is the chair of the select committee on the climate crisis is also she while she's not you? She hasn't co sponsored this bill she is putting out a report In q one of two thousand twenty on you know what should all the committees be working on on going forward on climate and this bill would really just gets everybody aligned. So that all the committees are looking at the same targets that they can they can t this up if the presidency changes to Democrats so that the whoever the incoming president would be would be able to pick this up and taken and okay all right. Here's something that we can start working with so it is a messaging bill but it's really important that they go ahead and set their goals and say here's what we want to get to okay so one of the reasons why we are talking thing about this because yes we have these pieces of legislation out there. Looks like we might actually get some action but we got some listener questions about as well and one listener and reached out and said Hey. Can you talk about this tax package and actually what I want you to talk about is that there are limitations to the way we promote clean energy and and there's actually like some renewed research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology this week that came out showing the way that we promote clean energy technologies grossly inadequate for solving climate change that despite the rise in renewables global missions are still going to go up. US emissions might right still creep up. This is not anything that our listeners didn't already know. I think we've sufficiently discussed this. But it's important to consider given that we we are once again only able to act on providing tax incentives for clean energy technologies and not doing something even broader to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels So Catherine what are your thoughts on the the importance and limitations of this kind of policy action. Yes so we're doing what we can right given the political construct in the Senate and people not wanting to take on huge climate positions in that chamber. But that doesn't mean I mean we can't still get some things done so getting this tax bill done would be something. We could do appropriations so energy and water appropriations that funds Department of Energy Energy and then there are other bills. Of course the fund other agencies can have some really important programmatic changes that help direct the agencies and fund blonde programs and projects that are going to be really useful to tackling climate change. But if you really WanNa get big things done what we should look to is chair air caster and her report coming out From the select committee on the climate crisis. That's going to look at everything and say all right. What are all these different things that we need to do? How do we tackle all sectors sectors of the economy and what are all the tools that we have at our disposal so one tool is getting rid of all the tax the hundreds of millions of dollars a year that we give to the fossil fossil fuel industry? Perhaps that's one way. Perhaps another way is to have this national climate bank that would be able to fund projects and and allow state programs to go forward. There may be additional tax resources. There may be like a renewable portfolio standard for the entire federal sector. There may be a lots and lots of things and maybe a lot of things that I did not mention but we can put all of those into you know in those ideas out there as long as we have the will on both sides of the aisle to do that in energy and Commerce Committee today as we tape they're having a hearing on decarbonisation to look at. What are all these different tools rules that you can bring to bear so at least it's in the conversation now? We haven't been able to talk about this for ten years and we are and so we are now and I think we are coming up. Put some new ideas and new solutions and I think that is really important. Yes always refreshing to hear the conversation. But it's GonNa still stay just in messaging documents. I mean there is no indication indication whatsoever that we can move on any kind of meaningful action aside from just simple tax extenders. And that's that's I mean that brings us to the problem that we identify each and every time the political moment just does not allow us to take the action that all these researchers and analysts. Tell us we need to take of of course when you do it but the political moment does not allow us to do that. I guess the question is let's assume you have some movement in Congress and you have a democratic mccracken president or a president who is more willing to accept the fact that we need to dramatically slashed funding for fossil fuels and dramatically ethically slash our use fossil fuels. That's actually quite different from the Obama years. If you'll remember Obama came in and was the first president to really promote clean energy and the way he did but he also was still a believer that we needed an all of the above approach and Tried to sort of incrementally influence our consumption of oil and gas And you know we saw oil and gas drilling explode in the United States under Obama. We're now in a position where we really need to reevaluate that in in a very serious way and do it extremely quickly so like in a world where we actually do have movement will a Democratic president. Come in of all the field. Will the Democratic president come in and actually make that hard series of choices. Yeah and that is something. We actually have to hold them accountable for because remember when Obama came. Amen we were in the middle of heading into one of the deepest recession since the Great Depression so he had a lot of things to deal with In addition to climate and clean energy energy in clean energy was one way he tried to help us recover. But we're in a very different place right now and you are absolutely right. We have to hold whoever it is. Whoever our elected officials officials are on either side of the aisle we have to say to them as a priority because otherwise they won't make it a priority right but I just think that we've got to make sure that we're clear about the fact pattern? I I what is happening is happening. Right remember Obama's energy policy was the same as George W Bush's energy policy or George W Bush introduced a thirty percent tax credit. He the actually like champion Wind Energy Texas so he was also all of the above he like passed an eight year extension of the IDC before he left office in two thousand eight in the Tarp Erbil and so Obama. Just carry that forward and the reason he did that is because making fuel more expensive to voters sucks in terms reelection. It always sucks and I know that the carbon tax people are like Oh but if we just increase the carbon tax and dividend money back to people. They're going to understand and sure they're going to understand but when they go to the pump and their gasoline is thirty cents more expensive and Exxon Mobil. You know damn well is GONNA put a fricken sign on the pump at that says your gasoline thirty cents more expensive because of the carbon tax. You will disassociate that from the thousand dollar check. You get at the end of the year from the government airman and so it is not surprising. The politicians particularly blue dog ones like steny. Hoyer for instance. WHO's like the number two in the house? It looks at the stuff and says why the the hell would we ever like. Shoot ourselves in the head with a carbon tax. Why would we do that to ourselves? This is why the the activists sewer focusing on this issue are gaining such traction. Because for those of us who've been following this in the policy environment feels like Kathryn who've just been deep in it for so long we understand the limitations of what you can get done in policy and you know we're at a point now where you look at you you can say okay well. This is what we can get done. There's compromise we can move the ball forward. It's fairly bipartisan. When we focus on tax issues? There's really not that much resistance Across administrations but we're at a point now where we need to up end. The whole system and the political environment does not allow us to even start to think about that. And so now we have all these other forces playing being a role in shaping the political conversation and that's why activists are now and that's why activists have such a major voice in this conversation at the moment but like but I'll I'll give you another way of doing it right so if you were to message this instead around healthcare costs right the national academy me of scientists has said Multiple Times that the US pays one hundred twenty billion dollars a year in actual healthcare costs because of the fossil fuel burning. If you were to say we're GONNA tax fossil fuels to pay for those healthcare costs. You might actually get that passed right because it's a direct correlation but I think that what the activists keep pushing for as we would like to tax this as much as we can within political constraints to get people to use less of it and that's just never never ever ever gonNA pass not in the United States of America. Yeah I think a much better strategy is to stop. The tax breaks that the fossil the industry is getting now. I don't think adding another tax layer to it is necessarily going to work. And you'RE GONNA get a ton of revenue from those those those stopping those breaks that they currently get but we are as at Stevens says we're we're at a tipping point where we can't just keep doing things incrementally and I've been having to live incrementally for a really long time and my policy push and yet I think we are at a point where something is going to shift and I'm hoping hoping given public opinion and that pressure is being put on our elected officials that the tide will change. We'll be able to do something big. I'm forever hopeful awful. I just think that so rod. Richardson and I wrote a piece for reason magazine this week on pushing clean tax cuts instead of a carbon tax which is basically being able to provide municipal bond financing for clean energy. So you get three percent interest money instead of seven percent interest money but I think thank you know. My sense is a lot of this is never going to get better at the federal government level and we need to stop trying in the same way. It's not going to get better at the EU level by the way the EU is just just as bad as the US federal government and so most of the innovation happens at the state level. We've had a great year this year. Right four new states past one hundred percent clean electricity policy. I think you see an amazing amount of movement and transmission rate now with the use of rail right of ways to be able to unlock unlocked transmission. We've got a tremendous movement electric vehicles. And you might actually see abandoned internal combustion engines in California in the not too distant future and so I think that when you think about you know where hope comes from. You Know California's like the fifth largest economy in the world and I think we all continue to. It'd be like well unless we can get all fifty states including a rural state like Wyoming and a very populist tech savvy dense stately California to to agree on one set of policies were failure. And that's just not the way the United States works and anyone who says otherwise hasn't studied the United States of America. So in in the meantime we're stuck with tax extenders Catherine your. What's your hope meter like for forgetting this across the finish line? Yeah it's pretty high And I'm also really excited that they may be able to do the energy and Water Appropriations for me. There's just a lot of really good stuff in there for A lot of innovators and smart programme smart modeling and analysis tools. I think it's just as important to fund the Federal Government and it looks like they're close to that now there's still still we have to have something passed by December twentieth. And whether that is you know a conglomeration of a bunch of individual agency bills is and then maybe an omnibus in omnibus format that would have a continuing resolution for all the others. I don't know what that's GonNa look like. In of course the president has been trying to make sure he has funding for a wall in there. That is very difficult to get done so I'm I'm hopeful that we can get agreement on some of these appropriations appropriations bills that then the tax piece will be easily attached to it. And I think that that's why I'm very hopeful on this. We wrap the show with a simple yet thought provoking question Russian from a listener. Where would we invest a million dollars to make the most impact on climate change? Here's the full question from Listener Eric. Emily I'm a financial adviser and yesterday yesterday. I got an interesting question from a client. If she wanted to put a million dollars into fighting climate change what should she do. I wasn't sure what got the answer so I thought you might take it up on the podcast. I think she's willing to buy ten people. Tesla's donated to charity private equity in everything in between she just wants the biggest bang for her buck. So let's let's answer the question question before we do answer that please remember. We are not financial advisers not meant to be financial advice. It's a thought exercise. I can tell you what I'd do. I'd buy thirty. Three Tesla cyber trucks. Cher you would maybe twenty five if I trick them all out. Yeah you'd be able to buy ten thousand deposits for cyber truck that's great. So where would you put the money well. So so in general When I'm mostly interested in is figuring out how to get more clean energy in my community so what I've been doing over the past I twelve years is Investing in like fifteen twenty fifty. You know kilowatt type solar systems in my community right. There's always a church or a school or a low income housing project or whatnot that wants to do solar willing to sign a PPA. Can't figure figure out a way to get it financed And so that's what I've been doing for years That's built up a pretty interesting sort of pension for me right now because they're going to pay for the next twenty years and it's at twenty percent less than they're currently paying and So I mean that's generally what I do And it brings me great joy just because I think there's a lot of projects addicts out there where people work hard to get consumers to say yes to something. That's pretty hard and complicated to say yes to and then they have a hard time finding financing there's a great company called Sun Wealth in Boston. And I think who's been trying to do this more systematically for investors But but yeah. No that's what I do. Yes so so. That's a that's a really good point about son wealth. You're steeped in this stuff I mean you were you were there. You helped create the first power purchase agreements. You're like one of the financial pioneers of this. So you know you understand where to start what about someone like this. Theoretical client. Who probably doesn't know how to get in the space in the same way? Would they go to a company like son well for they on their own. How would you get started while you? Obviously really I think would want to do it within your comfort zone right and so if you don't feel comfortable with the paperwork and the complexity then you do it through people like Sun Wealth if you're an active real estate date investor or you know somebody who does these kinds of things in other parts of your business than like you might feel totally comfortable doing it directly. But I think that whether it's solar or energy efficiency or you know for instance. There's a group that I just got contacted by that is converting their a a taxi. Fleet of four taxes into Tesla model. Threes and their local bank wouldn't provide them financing to do that right so I'm considering looking at that and so there are things like that that you know somebody with a million dollars could do in their local community and you actually would know the person that's that's doing it. You could meet up with the person so so you can size them up to make sure they're not cheating you out of your money but like these transactions are just so small but they're so important rate because like that is how this becomes commonplace in our society is by everyone having access to it. Catherine where would you put the money. Yes so I don't think a million dollars dollars is enough to run for president which seems to be what everybody else in the world wants to do but so campaign yet on onto. Ah You're not even a major channel So you know my impact brain of me is kind of where jigger is where I would probably look at a state State races that were you could really tip it on climate. If you made some investment in some of the candidates or a grassroots mission you know a grassroots campaign on a specific issue topic in a state. I think this could get you very far with something like back. It's not as expensive so I think I would look for something like that but if I were really trying to just make money with a million dollars I like a reach out to my son who does Ha is invested in this. ATF Exchange Traded Fund. Where he says you know it's very liquid it you get high? Dividends Lower Volatility and risk depending on what the president doesn't any given day and he knows that the funding is going to report folio of clean energy companies and there are a whole bunch of ETF's out there the do clean energy investment. So if I wanted to just try to make money that might be where it is. I mean I also I work with a ton of startups and as Jigger does has to and you know I would love to to fund some of them but a million dollars just doesn't covert far. The burn rate in these companies is so high. It's better to try to leverage the big guys to do some of that but there's so many good technologies out there that I would love to support. I think the average public service commissioner race is less than three eight hundred thousand dollars. Yeah Yeah so if you make a difference flip a public service commissioner in Alabama or Mississippi. Wow that'd be big so then an handover that million dollars Catherine to be your campaign chair and you can flip some races Yeah well Steve Annual Point well received. Yeah yeah point. Well received on a million dollars not being ton of money but still I think if I had a million dollars others to invest I would be looking at some kind of Angel Investment Strategy I would go to places like green town labs powerhouse. Bourbon acre the clean energy trust and start digging through their list of portfolio companies. And I would put focus on a places that are interesting thing to me. Whatever your area of passion is I would focus. Companies are like not too high tech that require a lot of capital Or a lot of scientific scientist breakthroughs. I would focus on companies that are looking at resource efficiency or sensors or drones or data. Plays robotics all these enabling rolling technologies that I think can help us deploy clean energy faster and could potentially offer a pretty strong return if you know one or a couple of these companies really takes off and so so You know Angel Investment would be one strategy of mine. The other is similar to Catherine's I I would probably focus on policy but I might focus on the policy influence of nonprofits or like environmental groups. So I have no idea what the politics of this client are. But I think it's very clear that whatever your politics are. This administration is dismantling some of the most important and fundamental environmental regulations of their time. And they are taking the environmental cop off the beat and one of our only lines of defense right now our our environmental groups with a lot of legal resources that are taking GonNa take the administration to court and so I know if I had a million dollars I might consider donating donating it to one of the major environmental groups that is leading the legal charge war to something like the Sierra clubs beyond coal campaign which is truly having an impact packed in both shutting down coal plants in helping local communities come up with a portfolio of solutions clean energy solutions to fill in the gap when those coal plants answer. Shut down so those are the two ends of the spectrum that I might focus on our like it. Yeah I like it too and it's funny because I'm always people think I'm a homer for energy storage which kind of am but there's so many interesting other spaces out there like water technology and AG tech and forestry that we really he really needs some good solutions on and I think you could find something. Pretty cool to do some Angel Investing in Stephen. Well if you you want to send that clients check this way let us know and maybe over the next year the energy gang can invest that money and see who strategy is best. I yeah and if you want someone to work on an issue campaign we do that all the time. That's right that's right free electrons now to close out the show Catherine what's yours. Yes so Zeke house father. I hope that's how you say. His name is a climate scientists at Berkeley and they just released a study geophysical research letter called evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. And what they did is they looked at the climate modelling from nine hundred seventy two two thousand thousand seven and looked at how those models were predicting climate change and then how what it really showed like how closer to reality and there's sort of two things that this relies on one is accurate modeling of the climate physics. The physics of climate and the other is blake like needing to have accurate assumptions. On what the future. Co Two emissions are going to or any other factors in the findings. Are that like. They're really accurate. That the these climate models have been really good predictors and their whole goal is to kind of to help resolve some of the confusion that has been created sometimes disingenuously over the accuracy of climate modeling. But it looks like a really good study for us to use for people like Greta Tonsberg to us who I says look at the science that our modeling is pretty. He good pretty good. It's really good. I mean this like brings tears to my eyes. You know if you look at if you follow what is happening with observations and climate science. It's pretty clear that we have matched or exceeded previous predictions. But when you see it like mapped out in such a scientific way to say look them huddles have been right and you compare that to what scientists are now saying about their models are telling them it is so terrifying. And it's just heartbreaking to I mean it's it it's just really heartbreaking. I agree but I'm always glad when I see that the scientists are right. Yeah but that that's a good and important important one Catherine Jigger. What's yours so in the spirit of Thanksgiving and you know the run up to the holiday I wanted to highlight an article. Oh by just into bowler in Eureka Street in Australia around dream consumerism. Being part of the problem and you know I think when you when you think about organic cotton and the clothing retailer Zara just saying they're going to use one hundred percent of its fabrics will be sustainable by twenty twenty five and apples gonNA stop mining being. I just think one of the things that I've come to the recognition of and and I try to practice pretty heavily that We just have to start buying less stuff you know with all of these like sort of clothing boxes and lots of other things. People are buying sixty percent more clothing today than they did. Fifteen years ago and so we are accelerating accelerating as consumers. And we're throwing more stuff away than we ever have. And I do think if folks want to do something this holiday season around climate change as an individual. You'll buy stuff. I like books myself. I love ask people books because you can hang onto it you can read it over and over again or or you can donate it to the library when you're done. I totally agree. I mean frankly. Have you seen that new library APP libby so you now can If you have a local nickel library card you can now download almost every e book in the country through all the local libraries. Well my free electron comes comes from Washington state so Jason Dane over at Green Tech Media wrote this story about how Washington state ferries which is actually the second largest ferry the system in the world. I had no idea how extensive it is but it makes sense now that I look at the geography of Washington State It is switching its fleet entirely from diesel to batteries batteries and That that is going to slash annual use of twenty million gallons of diesel They vary actually twenty. I five million people a year. That is the annual fuel consumption of a mid size airline according to a spokesperson for Washington. State Ferries I. I thought that was an extraordinary story. A I didn't understand how extensive the Washington state very system was and be if they can do it then. seems like batteries are ready ready to go for lots of short haul shipping. So we should definitely have a longer story on this. I know a lot about this and this is so one of the least ambitious announcements I've ever seen by why. Oh well tease us. Basically like there is a way to to convert all of the fairies in Washington state in the next three years and they just can't get out of their way. There's a union issue you have to use a local shipyard. You have to do this. You have to do that. And they just can't other ways so well we use a VW money to overpay for two conversions and a charging station. It's just the most infuriating fury aiding thing I've seen. I love Washington state I do and I love Jay Inslee as you know. But their ability to deploy in Washington state has been horrendous plot twist okay well noted and perhaps we'll pick this up in a future episode. I had no idea. The show is a CO production. Shen postscript audio and green tech media produced an edited by me and Daniel Waldorf. Our theme music is from Chad. Crouch give us a rating and review on Apple podcasts. Thanks to everyone who's done done that. Already send a link to your friends and family this holiday season and thanks a lot for being with us. We love having you here with us every week for the gang and and we will catch you soon.

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Tom Shannon, Mastermind Of Job Growth and Early Stage Companies  Episode 51

How'd It Happen Podcast

1:11:32 hr | 1 year ago

Tom Shannon, Mastermind Of Job Growth and Early Stage Companies Episode 51

"Welcome to episode fifty one of the podcast hosted by mike nella testa in this episode might welcomes uh-huh tom shannon the founder and CEO of bright star wisconsin a one of a kind nonprofit created as a unique entity to fill the early stage funding void by providing charitable foundations corporations and wealthy individuals with a vehicle to help fund job creation through capitol donation nation tom graduated with a finance degree from the university of wisconsin madison he started his first successful career insurance business and over a twenty year period tom help small business owners find execute the insurance and financial strategies they required to protect and grow their assets when he decided to launch his second career as a business owner tom search led him to a company called pro desa that had a technology for a rapid and reliable flu test he led that company company from humble beginnings to an eventual sale to a strategic partner for more than seventy million dollars tom is in wisconsin investor hall of fame and is an active board member in companies like oshkosh nanotechnology proxima diagnostics and samna therapeutics i'm joe ghanouchi mike's podcast producer blog collaborator collaborator and i've got a quick favor to ask if you like what mike's doing what this podcast please consider taking less than a minute to rate it as keppel podcast or wherever you like to listen and if you've got a little bit more time please leave a comment it will help us keep the show relevant and interesting for you thank you mike and tom cover a ton of great stuff in this episode including how he dealt with a cease and desist order from the FDA that turned out to be a huge blessing in disguise the incredible job creation and sustainable model that bright star his built and why he may be the least successful member of the shannon family early stage companies drive virtually all the growth of job the creation five hundred person company had to be one or two person company to begin with right so that's really not an argument you have to start somewhere this episode is is brought to you by hello water polo water is fiber infused with zero sugar five grams of fiber with five inspiring flavors a fun and fresh delivery system to help curb appetite and promote gut health smile laugh live love and dance your way to a healthy lifestyle visit helo water dot com to find a retailer near you hello water inspire health thank you for being a how did happen listener please subscribe mike mala tested dot com on apple podcast spotify stitcher or wherever were you like to listen please enjoy tom shannon hi everybody welcome back to the show will today i have as my guest tom shannon as you heard tom is uh extraordinarily successful person and i've hunted him down to be on the show he said no can't do it can't do it can't do it and finally he's he's here so tom welcome to the show thank you i think it was february we started talking about getting together and if i would've known that it was gonna take til now we should have booked something down to summer fest grounds or i've never been on a podcast i've been i've of course spoken to groups and film but never been on podcast yeah so this is sort of neat because the first podcast and he's referencing first day of summer fest as well so we're right near the end of june so it's taken a good four months to to get this scheduled and i i would suggest to like jerry seinfeld in comedians driving cars having coffee we do something with mala testa having wine on the pier so he could wanna change your venue for the summer i do have a studio in my house now by the way i thought it was easier for you to you come here i thank you so anyway tom welcome to the show i started everyone on my podcast the same way that's with a simple question how did happen for you yeah and that's sort of an open ended question i guess you'd have to define success what that is and then how you got there and what you what you did to get there and what it troubles you went through and what successes you went through it's interesting though i'm you know i'm not even the most successful person in my family i i should tell you about them properly during the podcast but boy i have two brothers and a sister that just are really really talented people so i think part of of my experiences growing up with three siblings that are all very berries very successful and talented and smart and all those things so it was a friendly competition within our household growing up even but yeah i guess i guess i'd go through two or three different phases sort of my life when i got out of college i went right into the insurance and securities this business and i was in that business for twenty years and i worked largely with small companies small businesses we we sold pension plans and group health insurance and those things and i saw these companies with you know that that that were growing an interesting and i just remember walking through the different plants with owners and really being interested in asking questions about what they did and how they got there and it was just all exciting to me so after about twenty years of of really being a manager with insurance and security charity's people eighty registered reps report to me i sort of got the bug to want to own my own business and do something on my own more entrepreneurial although i i really felt that the insurance curious business was pretty entrepreneurial there's lots of different ways of of selling markets to go into in i think i think that was really fun and interesting but i did want to do something myself where i had my own business and an area that i was able to grow oh something for my benefit so in coming back to milwaukee so for twenty years i was in insurance and securities sosa seventy seven to ninety seven and in two thousand and one i came back to milwaukee with the intent of getting involved in a company and that company could really be any kind of company didn't have to be in any special sector but i ended up finding a sector that ended up being something that i would really really enjoy in that's the early stage early stage companies and maybe be good mike to make a couple definitions about what those things are and so your so your audience can understand what it is so startups and early stage sort of synonymous and usually what they mean is a start up burleigh stage company is that certainly don't have prophets rarely even have revenues usually have some kind of intellectual alexa property or technology that they invented controlled so what i came excuse me when i came back to wisconsin anson from nebraska in two thousand one i was looking for a company to get involved with from an ownership position and also ABC oh and run it and i looked at me had deal flow going you know all throughout the city and many different types of sectors but but this early stage this early stage area startup area kept coming up and had interested you before you came back here or was it something you know you kinda fell into when you were searching you know really more fell into when i was searching because the company found was a company called pro desa and podesta was simply a pediatric neurologist from the medical college of wisconsin a man named kelly hendrickson who came up with a method methodology of that he had pads on of detecting disease such che's flew in so influenza pneumonias clustered difficile called seed seed seed if he was on the cutting edge in two thousand and one of DNA based technology where you pull out somebody's DNA and as you know with like paternity suits when that a paternity tests when that became prevalent people understood that they're almost one hundred percent sensitive so even even things like flu there were tests out there that we're only fifty percent sensitive so mike what good is that if if you're going to know if you have flu or not yes or no muscle flip a coin so kelly henriksen was really at the cutting edge of both DNA based testing for infectious diseases and he had a a second arrow in his quiver which he could detect multiple pathogens at the same time so it was called multiplexing so so we could take a sample and from that sample determine if you had are influence a influence of b. r. s. v. adnan virus virus so multiplexing so a couple unique things but then you say well what does tom shannon know about infectious disease disease diagnose i talked about the coming here from being in the insurance business for twenty years coming here looking for a company imagined in the insurance business you're mostly dealing with established companies first of all he come here and then yes it got us thinking exactly the question you just asked while i was wondering i was wondering also but but so remember have i'm very curious and be an insurance and securities business i had seen so many companies over those twenty years so there are just so many ideas it just happened that a number of things that were what i'll say affordable for me and a little investor the group put together and of interest and available were more in the early stage startup community again usually usually companies that were very young had some kind of technology or intellectual property that could be commercialized allies and then needed needed to have somebody financed the commercialization of the the product and or get it cleared by the FDA or some whatever type of regulatory organization was involved with that type of company so this is very interesting really i remember flying in from midwest express nonstop from nebraska to milwaukee we're building a home here and i had four or five meetings meeting scheduled for that day in and out same day and for lunch i was going to meet this for allergists from the medical coll-college a physician and he was late and he he didn't answer questions really to too much extent extent was you know a little bit different as scientists can be in any scientists listing here will understand what i mean and really didn't make a very good impression and i i i sort of blew that off and went on home a month later i went to a meeting of a newly formed group here at the time called techstars lame rostrum was the head of that and techstars was a at the time in two thousand and one was an organization formed by medical college wisconsin the metropolitan walkie association commerce UW green bay you wm there were actually five entities and they put five million dollars in a pot and gave it to lane and the idea being that he would try to incubating start these early stage startup companies and month later i went to a meeting of angel investors investors and then angel mike definition of angel investors is an investor who puts money into early stage startup companies again there then used to looking at companies that don't have profits rarely have revenues but often almost almost always have some mm type of what would be seen as differential advantage intellectual property technology something that can be commercialized so so angels are leap of faith tasty are they are a leap of faith although yeah and i know where that came from the word angel scribe and i don't know hopefully it doesn't have anything to do with just pre predestined the angel come i never asked the question be evan after you right now and we'll talk about angel investing don rose during during the podcast a little bit too but so i went to a meeting of angel investors i think it was a silicon pastures group which there's angel groups in the state i would say probably eight to ten to twelve organized angel groups and then there are probably now another dozen funds that are actually put together other to invest in early stage start companies would be i would call angel funds but but the time there weren't that many and who was on stage page one of the three presenters same person you know kelly henriksen but he was he he had lane bros from from techstars with him and the two of them presented and while i all of a sudden there was a business plan and there was a valuation and kelly had been schooled in that if he wanted to take money he might have to go patrol of the company and it was a whole different story so after that meeting i went up to lane and said had you know laying i'm looking for two things one to run something and with this company podesta do you have a CEO it doesn't appear you do you know kelly is a full-time MD at children's hospital moonlighting in his lab commercial little commercial lab with one hundred seventy thousand and revenues called podesta i said so i'd wanna run it and instead of an angel investor pudding twenty five or fifty thousand dollars into which is sort of the normal range of angel investing is twenty five to two hundred and fifty thousand dollars into a deal deal i'm instead of that i have a little syndicate of people that we would together then wanna take control of the company and so i had lane hadn't planned on somebody offering both the to run it end to fully finance it it and we did that in gotta deal done we negotiated them a license with a medical college and kelly became a great partner and he understood that though he could continue and should continue had to continue in participating in the science end that we were business people people that we're going to commercialize it so we did a deal with them okay so couple of questions you hadn't been here in wisconsin that long ago you said you came back so i don't know if that meant you grew up here or water you had a network already so ask you about that but kelly polishes up is thing lean helps them in the textile or whatever you happen to go to the meeting and see it again and then you mentioned so it gets interesting to you and then you mentioned that you put a little it'll syndicate together which is a group of people to help you invest so i'm interested in how you did that how did you find these people uh-huh because you hadn't done this before right and this your first business and it's it's a very risky did not like a normal i'm gonna go buy a machine tool company right this is a challenge right so with big out with a big potential i suppose what you saw it anyway how how did you yes so i had four or five different people including a brother who said hey if you can find something you've been involved in small businesses for twenty years you've run a somewhat of a substantial organization when you have eighty registered reps report to you shots you know yes we have some management experience so i don't think that in the back of their mind they fought while carte blanche stayed put money into just anything i found but there were certainly willing to listen to what what what what i was seeing and thinking might be a good opportunity in this case podesta infectious disease diagnostics actually was really pretty simple because though i wasn't a scientist and hand work with scientists there was a product and the avenue to sell that product was buried direct it was to lab directors route the country so these so we would produce and make tests that doctors would order and the hospital lab would actually perform the test so i knew right off that really what we had was a widget that would be sold through lab directors actors so say two three four hundred lab directors throughout the country and they congregated four times a year five times a year and so they whether it be at the clinical chemistry meeting or the molecular pathology meeting or digestive disease week they did to get together and it was a pretty easy sales path and although i was never going to know the science like did did i knew what the widget did it detected something and it detected at a DNA level which was almost one hundred percent sensitive in the marketplace waist needed that they needed the sensitivity and that kelly had also uniqueness that instead of taking one sputum sample and dan dividing it into seven and and having individual detections done he could multiplex and from one sample have seven outcomes for instance which was a differential advantage so would simultaneously do seven tests yeah yeah so it was a better mouse trap so when i looked at it was okay i don't need to exactly know how palmer's chain-reaction works an extraction from the DNA all the different things however as you would i guess figure out that at the design thank control meetings that are part and parcel to a science based company SEO i would attend those so through through osmosis i ended up becoming a bit of a nerd science nerd because we had to develop these products and ultimately they had to be cleared cleared through the FDA and to do that there's very stringent requirements all senator ron all centering around design controls and designing designing something and making sure it QC's and it works and how you handle it and you can't turn around without having to write a memo and put it in the development files so actually at at the end i i could pretty much i pretty much knew most of the science because i did that from two thousand one to two thousand nine we built that then from one hundred and seventy five thousand dollars in revenues in a small lab just doing the test ourselves and having samples sent sent into us to ending up having multiple different types of DNA based infectious disease tests sold all over the world and so it was a nice win people put money into a buck seventy two and we went out at twenty six dollars at seventy two million i'm so that was sort of you know when they they have heard the her have you heard the saying success has a thousand fathers but failure is a bastard well that ended up being a a winner and and the getting back to the network or the investor group that you put together you said you came back to milwaukee says i i suppose you haven't network already here people that you knew or when you came back from nebraska and wanted to buy this company you made yourself known when you're not attracted these other folks how did that come so i grew up here and went to the university wisconsin gotta finance degree and so oh excuse me during the first twelve years i was in the insurance and securities business here and worked with so you know and had a shannon financial associates brochure and we had corporate clients really throughout the city and state so so i i did know a number of people and it was coming back home and it was easy to slide back in again my brothers and sister are successful own companies and been involved in larger companies and so they're known also so so one of the four of us you would be known to you know most individuals at least through seven or six six layers of separation ration- with the so anyway so we did have a network here wasn't wasn't difficult to come back in and play plug back into it and as far as investors what you what you do i would recommend to any early stage companies CEO is that you you have three five seven ten investors and you immediately put out a quarterly newsletter doesn't matter there's only a dozen people receiving it but as you're out and about in your other investors are out and about you know or your newspaper article medical college licenses predessor wherever it might be people ask about oh gee i didn't you know that sounds interesting or oh and then you say well gosh you know we have a little newsletter if you want we'll put on it and quarterly news i'd love to you know in that that grows to a couple of hundred people well if you're informing a couple of hundred people every quarter what's going on what are the what are the strikes you're making building this company when when you when you go ahead and write one quarter saying well we need x. amount of dollars to fund us for the next x. amount of time some of those people say all you know gosh i've been following you now now for half a year year two years i you know i'm interested in fact i remember jeff rusnak who if anybody's listening to the podcast and is an angel investor as talk about angel investing in a few minutes would know jeff rush now you know he even he was last one in at mm-hmm at evaluation of fourteen million dollars so it was it was harder getting him he was in late and the valuation was tire but he made a nice what four or five time return within a year so people keep adding to the newsletter pot and then that's just a nice way of trying to make fundraising a little easier stay top of mind to right yeah that's good advice were there times along the way with predessor that you thought it wasn't going to work well what's really important it's at the does the science or technology work yes or no and when when as an angel investor during that time it presa asa i became an angel investor in other companies and went on other boards and got involved in that sector to a pretty large degree and specifically at odessa there were times it was concerning but more often than not and actually i'm going back up so it's really great having a business oriented person running a scientific company to to the degree that some of us won't put money into a company that has a PHD as the CEO it's just a different perspective for instance you know with the quality systems in in a scientific business our had excuse me head of regulatory and quality would take an inquiries a lab would say now that didn't work the outcome was wrong and we bring the specimen back in and have tested different ways and things like that and and almost always the lab had done something wrong in the process in fact always it i was really never a fault of the up predestined dessus product at all but the quality person would bring in any inquiry as a complaint and once it's a complaint it takes enormous amount of time and energy to run all the root causes down and things like that but even making a minor tweak that that reasonably reasonably an inquiry should not move to a complaint immediately until it was triage if you will because it might be a very simple thing all the lab technician left the specimen become ambient over a twelve hour period which is a no-no or whatever it might be so those types of things were troublesome that we needed to be effects overcome and this complaint thing that an internal thing come or is that something at the FDA the regulatory body monitors so you you you are your laboratory and or your manufacturing process good manufacturing process our our regulated and subject to inspection and you are things are self reportable so complete has to be locked take if you get if it's only and right now for forever so you'd rather have so things like that could could hurt you badly if they were mishandled so there were a couple of times where hey did our product work and what doesn't make sense census at the gold standard especially for the food and drug administration at the time were what are called rapid tests that weren't nearly as as a sensitive as a dna based test so what's a gold standard well the gold standard is a non DNA base test rest and you compare yourself to that and they're wrong you're not wrong but if the gold standard that the FDA is using is attested let's inadequate or not as sensitive as yours how do you show them that it's not so it's just really interesting so yes we had we had had one one big troublesome event and that was actually at a board meeting where we were going through the last quarter and i we had a great board of directors director some in the scientific field and we're some really good business minds intact kevin conroy who a lot of people was on our board who took okay exact well third wave but now exact science so exact science started with two employees or employees and and i've grown to who eighteen hundred i think it is something like that yeah i just recently huge number revenues climbing dramatic networks five point seven seven billion or something on kevin's a friend and was on the board and during that board meeting we took a break was an hour and a half meeting we took a bathroom break and in the interim a fedex package from the FDA and it said FDA on it and and as people were re congregating in our conference room i quit opened it and it was it was a cease and desist letter from the FDA eh saying that your you must stop you must stop selling product it's adulterated and under force of law you're getting a warning letter it's called a warning letter oh my gosh you know a couple of people that were in the room at the time and one in particular became very read and who was a general counsel for a publicly traded company at one time and so we we had our hands full because again we were cutting edge we were doing things at other companies were not able to do so the FDA was was unable to understand the wanted our products to become FDA cleared immediately will you can't clear them tomorrow you need you know upwards of six six months to a year to put to put together the clinical trials sign up hospital labs will use your curriculum if you will well if you use your instructions properly accumulate the data and put it into the FDA for clearance so we we weren't aren't doing anything wrong but very novel so that that was very scary took us what we held them off in fact it was funny money because the head of the head of the area oh i d- d- area so we asked four meeting and so we came in and we had washington based attorney and who worked with the FDA and i think we had never been on nervous mike we had eleven levin FDA people in a huge conference room with a big table and i'm CEO office at their office in baltimore the area i washington DC area and you look around the room and you know you're certain that you have the lowest mental throughput of the group is everybody i bring with me as a PHD up here they're all PHD's which is interesting too when we sold the house in front of a public traded company and their their whole group and all them deesor PHD's it was really pretty funny also at that point knowing i had the lowest mental throughput in the room room but none of them already made the determination that qualify run company so yeah so so could i talk the science lingo with them no but could i you know frankly run around them from a management situation yes so okay so you take a little all solution that but they're they're just really bright people so so it was interesting they had never seen in said they had never seen i had a big league poster and it said how do you make a house and it started with found so i i had pictures and a circle and you start with the foundation and you go you're putting up the walls and you're putting on the roof and your painting and things like this he had the different steps and then we turn it around and showed the same thing with our tests versus our competitors and we showed how we only provided certain pieces we didn't provide the re some of the reagents especially the enzyme which is very important we didn't provide instructions we provided pieces of the house not the whole house whereas some bar competition they hadn't sent a warning letter to provided the whole damn house so it was really interesting perspective that they didn't really understand what we were doing and it was really a huge blessing in disguise because basically we kept them at arm's length and and they didn't want to be the be to the point where they put us a small company out of business at doesn't really help the reputation either doesn't doesn't help us so they agreed to have enforcement held off as as long as we ran to get FDA clearances so in this space in this in this infectious disease diagnostics using something called real time thermal cycler so it's real time called real time and DNA diagnostics we were pushed to get our tests cleared and a huge barrier to entry from other companies right huge barrier to entry we were forced to do it we didn't want to do it but they left us alone we continued to so while we made nice progress got got them cleared and then our competition they're not cleared we're going hey send number warning letter became an an advantage it became bitter it definitely became a advantage so that was that attached to your question did you have any moments within that company that were ones where they could have been deal colors killers dealers there were a few but we were able to get through them and then then they became an advantage and mike if you remember do you remember swine flu in two thousand thousand nine so swine flu is influenza a. and we detected influenza in one of our one of our diagnostic kits so when fly swine flu hit there was no federal federally regulated swine swine flu test but we had our flu a had swine flu as one of the detections in it so all of a sudden we're sitting there with twenty five million dollars worth of sales because nobody else we got an emergency FDA gave us an emergency mm absolution if you will our emergency clearance because nobody else could detect it and all of a sudden all were you were on the rate arab all the publicly they traded companies because this company was the only one that could could produce a test and now is the catalyst the catalyst for sale right you mentioned you're nervous going in there and i just want to ask one more question about it into FDA FDA what what did you what did you think what were you what did you think the chances were like what were you were you betting the chances where you'd come out of there with a better outcome than you perhaps were facing acing when you walked in there yeah i mean the house thing that had to be the byproduct of you guys really thinking about how to explain this and and all and and division it and napa i'm curious i'd have to say we really had no clue and actually during the whole process we never got a letter mike that said if you do this we won't do that to you it was more for working with the oh i d- d- scientists within FDA an us continuing to say hey all right we'll make headway will make headway can we have some agreement on how to get that done at no time to the ever say we will not enforce we will hold an abeyance so they could have come in at any time and and actually actually with a sheriff and and taken our product we suspected they wouldn't want to be that harsh nor or should they especially with the uncertainty of their position and in the we had we had just gone beyond on their realm of expertise and regulatory expertise faster than so they just didn't keep up with the science i guess you mentioned your family a couple of times yeah you what was it like growing up shannon well it's more potion and you know we three years apart older sister by three years younger brother by three years and then a younger brother by four years and you know danza an a an executive with with f f i s and doing beautifully and is a senior person there my sister people know that was very helpful for me to people now susan angle lighter sharon against her coal in eighty eight for US senate and lost by one percent she was a youngest female legislator in the country at age twenty two i think that she owns right now as a majority owner of the largest female privately held company in minneapolis i could be wrong but i'm pretty close with their hundreds and hundreds words of billions of dollars in sales and a brother mike has private equity firm that has has had at least three two billion dollar raises for his fund so i mean i i'm the piker and the pike you're sure and we have had a couple articles written one one of the milwaukee journal and some others about the family and what's in the water but yeah we're just all i think think sorta nice sort of semi smart people that are competitive but not outlandishly so and have gotten into niches which is that they have found exciting and push things forward so it's just a lot of fun being involved with them and as the family we do a lot of things together although we're spread out dan and i are in the metro area he's on the board at bright star so i you know see him you know quarterly they are for sure plus you know family events in in mike sue are both on the u. UW foundation board so they they come to madison quite a bit from my sister who lives in minneapolis saint paul and mike and his wife mary sue are all over but but in palm springs denver a few other cities so they they get around quite a bit so you know i i believe it or not i we had some friends my father's friends in the insurance business that did well and didn't have anybody had to report to and i got a finance degree and i knew i wanted to go into that industry it ended up very quickly thankfully i went with the right company that all of on the wraps scott stockbrokerage licenses right away so we had all the arrows in our quiver we could you know sell anything from a limited partnership to life insurance to grow oh pensions to you name it but i i was very lucky because she's me the very very competitive product that this company the equitable which is third largest insurance and securities firm at the time in the world now they're called access advisors french based company now had a product mike there's nothing like there's nothing like a salesman that has a product that's really competitive i mean as you know is another bummer you've got something you know you sell this pen now what does this pan what differential oh advantages as pen have and you make penn calls all day and you can't sell anything but i was just fortunate to come out of school and the company had a product from and it was a special group health insurance product and it was formulated for fifty two hundred fifty employees you had to be in that range why wife more than fifty but no more than one hundred fifty so young aggressive couple of us you know we would just call the HR person every company that had about l. pat size and we just knocked them dead it was just wonderful very competitive product so i was just thrilled and from there blah blah about to once you're in and you excalibur automobile remember was one of my clients science you know you you sell their group health insurance plan but gosh they need to buy sell agreement or who's handling the pension or human life all you name it yeah yeah you name it so that might be dan that we have to turn off this marlee yeah i meant i mentioned very scalp abroad so i thought you know is advice is getting that was so it's a great problem there we go yeah it gives us a break to from the podcast right so so okay the the the sale predessor happens yup and that brings you i guess opportunity and freedom i don't know how long he stayed with the company if you even did thompson one day and how'd you make the decision on who who is going to business if there was headed a process well first of all they came to us in a couple of companies came to us relatively probably a at the same time so again we had been to these five major trade shows plus two in europe for you know four or five years i spent i spent i know five years in dusseldorf every thanksgiving because there's a the medika the biggest trade show i think in the world or at least medical products seventeen trade show halls it's unbelievable and so we became known in the circles of molecular diagnostics and mainly publicly traded companies lots of combinations going on there and actually i've just actually reached out to him yesterday one of the analysts for piper jaffrey in minneapolis we haven't talked to since two thousand nine when we sold desa i had a reason to hunt tim down and talk to him yesterday so it's good good timing but he was in front of a publicly traded company that has an analyst he reviewed and he gave out output output for for piper jaffray to their client base and he said why why aren't you talking to buying predessor there'a a nice match for you and oh gee officer i get a call from from gen probe which was really nice and you know we did that dance for about a month and a half and during that period to other companies called one most company that that i had had breakfast with c. l. in germany to medicos to duesseldorf trips in a row and wonderful person he said we get to this size and in this situation we'd be interested in you and i remember burke called and barent called and said this was pairs director of corporate development and barron called and said tom you know we think we would like to buy you may i come visit and i said barent you can but not until after october ninth and that was cody locked in lockup all my time i am too late and i said well possibly eh but i can let you to over nine so it was it was just sort of cute so but to segue there is you know what happened after pedestrian and i had already invested in a number of early stage companies of all sorts of make and model and i they get that time i had been on eight was on eight boards which is way too many never never go on that many what's the right number four you're really giving get time probably so started investing more intensely in early stage companies his and founded one son therapeutics medical college wisconsin along with two two of my co founders that aren't scientists and then the head of gastroenterology raises you care who's at the medical college so similar story to process over you had a a product yeah that needed needed development and then on clearances and then selling so that re route very very similar but others you know energy eh in fact today at four o'clock i have a board call with proxima diagnostics in sunnyvale where i'd been board chair um uh-huh and invested in but so that was two thousand nine to two thousand twelve ish then in two thousand twelve she's being two thousand twelve in reaction action to what i saw as a problem i came up with an idea for a nonprofit called ended up being called bright star wisconsin foundation and the problem was is that in in milwaukee and in wisconsin generally but milwaukee in particular there were way too few angel investors and way too many potential companies to fund and things were out of sync the out of of sync is that wisconsin has a billion dollars going through the university of wisconsin in research just UW in research i think was third in the country maybe now fourth or fifth but third fourth or fifth and country and money going through has really well educated kids it's coming out of college and relatively cheap labor force you know we're not in the coasts so here are all all these ideas high patents much higher than our size of our state would dictate that we have sore behind intellectual actual property high and ideas high education high in research too high in research dollars we have all these ideas and as a angel investor stor with a lot of friends is my my friends and colleagues being angel investors there were just too many ideas um and not enough money going into them and then as happens with early stage startups which always happens is that you need funding for a while and different tranches and we'd run out of money you know we angels would run out of money and we come to a point where it was no longer reasonable to continue putting more of net worth into the sector it was would be reckless and milwaukee as a as i think as has been known is a conservative city you and the the potential funders of angel angel are the potential angels and funders surly stage companies the likely suspects of one hundred two hundred three hundred people that are running businesses here are do not have the mental thought process that angel investing makes sense to them they were conservative here we want bricks and mortar we want prophets we sure want revenues and to consider senator something that has IP protection and is a new technology horrors right you know we wouldn't we wouldn't do that so we're you know being faced with somewhat non responsive investment community back in two thousand twelve four early stage and maybe there's one hundred angel statewide and probably a dozen or more of us that were very active we just didn't have enough money going into the space so i came up with an idea and it was somewhat novel in that that we we have a investment pocket that's pretty much used up as an angel but but we also have a charitable pocket and from charitable side if we could have people understand that early stage startup companies are were all job creation occurs marion ewing kauffman foundation and kansas city's pretty well known gold standard of entrepreneurism all their white papers talk about early stage companies dr virtually all the growth of job creation now there are people have said to me that they're they're correct that would say hey this five five hundred person company just became a thousand that's where all the job creation is well well no the five hundred person company had to be one or two person company to begin with right right so that's really not an argument you have to start somewhere in we had all these different ideas we're seeing people moving i remember a woman put it making a presentation and almost begging for money and you know she went out to the west coast got money right away and so clearly hear what wisconsin has is a bunch of philanthropic people right i think everybody would agree that all right if they're philanthropic where they giving giving their funds to well almost all are giving at least some of their charitable monies to their alma mater and of course in in wisconsin fifty percent of the that alma mater UW right so all right so here if there's a group if there's a group of people that every year i give him money to you w and especially back in two thousand twelve thirteen eighteen kids are coming out of the business school and not having jobs what good is being educated and abbott nicholson especially really who's very well known in the in the community and nicholas nicholas funds and abdai two years ago but when i read that ab who who is already given one hundred million or more to the u. w. was giving fifty fifty million dollars for are specifically scholarships for basketball players in the state of wisconsin if you're versity basketball player male or female in the state you can apply for tuition with fifty million i'm sitting there going my gosh of course ab and people like him don't wanna be angel investors they don't want to return they don't care about the gains they don't want to go to the dinners and do the vetting you know they're trying to get rid of their assets simplify simplify so they're they're they're ready willing and able to support things but i don't care about the financial return i thought my gosh if abc nicholas you know there's a harvard business school study that earns not study but when one of their white papers it said and at the time you'll and you know it's a little bit dated because talks about sears and when mike you walk walk into sears you're walking in to buy a whole you're not walking into by a drill and i thought of that and i thought abney the ad necklaces of the world don't want they don't they don't want the drill but they want the whole and if they're willing to spend lots of money to educate kids in wisconsin because they love the state and their philanthropic why wouldn't they go the next step and make sure sure that there's a job here they stay and they stay in wisconsin and so that was sort of my eureka moment i thought will you know if we could do something if if we could create a foundation that functions as a fund like an early stage fund but it's not a fund it's actually set up as a five three and it's a foundation and we solicit donors not investors investors so we have dough if we could have donors into a foundation that that function like investors into a fund we might have something here because that right hand pocket with people that have charitable dollars that would never become angel investors if indeed they saw a foundation that functioned as a fund for the benefit of job creation in the state they will give money and so i talked to my friend jefferson island jeff harris and brother and sister and some others and and i thought that went to the greater milwaukee walk foundation or greater milwaukee committee and talked to some other people and said if if we if if i take a couple years of my life to formulate a foundation and we'll do the fundraising to get enough money into the pot to make it meaningful would you people back it so we came up with eight co founders and the biggest hurdle of course was can you get an IRS designation goal nonprofit a nonprofit when all you're doing is you're not giving five percent away way you're not looking at a a economic disadvantaged area it's not a health care you know it's it's a it's people putting money and taking deduction if they can take the deduction they can but you know some earners can't dan because of too much now but but if they could if we can have a foundation where we put money into it and all we do is invest in early stage each company's that's all we do and then when those companies some are gonna fail but the ones that win cut money comes back into the foundation and just keeps it's growing and growing will that make a difference and we had a couple of different law firms and ended up reinhardt and tony hands look at amy barnes on a pro bono basis but the application in huge application and we thought okay how is this going going to work so we found a pathway that hasn't been used before were a function bright star wisconsin foundation is functionally integrated support support group of state government as a public charity so it's a pathway that hasn't been taken before so we were worried and could we get the IRS designation and in starting to speak to groups you know rotary has me and him MAC has me and and the nonprofit of wisconsin so i'm speaking in front of a bunch of groups and saying our applications nations in nobody really thought we would get it and low and behold we asked for we asked for fast track so so that was one thing that as a fairly imp inpatient impatient person i wasn't willing to do and that was is wait a year and a half for IRS to touch the application you know mike it takes awhile so we were able to work with both US senator tammy baldwin office and ron johnson's office to go ahead and get fast-track not improperly getting any benefit but properly based on the rigs getting a fast track designation because in the designation comes because dollars are at risk of not coming in and losing those dollars because of speed and so we got fasttrack hundred page application asian they came back IRS came back with dozens and dozens and dozens of questions had never seen this before so we basically said no bat bat those questions don't pertain because of this pathway we're doing this this this pertain and either knew that cincinnati where it came from was going to kick us is to washington and fight this or we might get lucky doggone it if we didn't put all responses back in the mail and two weeks later we got congratulations are weeks two weeks after that after the first first salvo coming back so we got one and so it's it's it's been really terrific it's so we've started applying money february two thousand fourteen and we'll have a press release the eighth on our last two companies that we funded in with a media madison and we have fifty two that were involved and with fifty to fifty two yeah yeah it's almost eight million that's been deployed so i said i'd do this for a couple of years and that was two thousand fourteen fourteenth and now it's two thousand nineteen excuse me but we so we're not relaxed the definition of a couple so we're so so really oh as long as i don't have to be the person out there knocking on everybody's door and and fundraising because that you know that that becomes tedious so were were really i hired a hired a woman laurie heineman in two thousand thirteen and we agreed that we'd go all throughout the state a- and talk to potential donors and she and i would lead that charge arm-in-arm and she did that for two years and now she had the milwaukee development or madison development inc after the two year contract we had with her so now we're sort of self funded we have thirty five forty investors are investor see now now mark we do need to tell them that the function is investors but they're not their donors so we the we were really very pleased we went up to wausau and green bay and appleton and lacrosse and gosh josh we have judd alexander foundation in wausau dudley foundation in los aw she's spend but have to take it out so it really it really has become a statewide there's a statement state state law dwight kuwaitis all the white linda davis foundation are what's strange is our minimum requested donation is one hundred thousand dollars which you know sounds ludicrous right i remember speaking in madison to a group of about fifty people in one of the attorneys said so tom are you saying that NFL wrote you a check for fifty thousand dollars you wouldn't take it and i said you know first of all that'd be a classy problem to have and of course we probably take we're just suggesting that if someone could afford fifty they probably couldn't afford one hundred and there's an what we can't do is have five hundred people give us a thousand dollars that just doesn't just doesn't work we can't we can't track it and so gosh we we have one gentleman who i've never met he he has a attorney in new york lives part time in madison and he has continued to give us checks like every year and it's sorta like christmas a little bit i think he's given us four hundred and fifty thousand dollars another in in nina sort of the same thing he wrote the initial check for fifty thousand and of course our little group goes was fifty you know we we need to take this of course and we did and he's written for more fifty eighty thousand dollar one so so our funding at this point is such that we are not actively soliciting donors because we you don't have the manpower to do that and we we don't wish to but if there are still people that do donate to us and put money indian somewhat unsolicited so however big we get though we're at the point now mike where with eight million we should be able to have if indeed the kaufman numbers work and those kaufman numbers say that an angel portfolio should return twenty one percent per year two point one times and if we can start doing that with exits will be able to to put money into more and more companies and make this thing grow SOS saying i i'm still enjoying it we're on muscle memory we have an investment in committee that's made up of eleven people they after we don't like doing deals on our own we partner with the fifteen fifteen other funds and angel groups and they help with a lot of the diligence and then we take package it so that it it it fits our i for our investment committee and then we vote up or down on it and i think we've put done six this year or close to that and so we'll just the the the foundation runs unbelievably efficiently from the standpoint of both money and people we just have one business manager portfolio manager i donate my time and eleven people had an investment committee and board of course donate their time so we're running eight million dollars and have a hundred and sixty thousand dollar budget that's all it is and we have we have a unique ability to get something called q. and be credits qualified new business venture credit so in the state of wisconsin an early stage company has has qualified with WDC scott's economic development corp as a basically early stage company that's looking for financing they can give they're investor twenty five percent credits state tax credits i can use for the first fifteen years now the the real key here is at bright stars a nonprofit so we can't use those credits but as a qualified fund and qualified fund manager we can get the credits so if we invest a million dollars a year that's two hundred fifty thousand credits we can sell those credits so we sell credits each year based based on our investments that are more than the whole entire expense of bright star so we're actually gaining money to put into the the pot so it's what's actually siggia pretty slick it works pretty well yeah and so never been done before it's so novel that you can get people just flipped their mindset right instead of being investors their donors they're they're engaged in in foundation now to fund right they're engaged in helping support the growth of local businesses startups keep the brain from occurring right key people here in this area of creating jobs creating new technologies creating momentum and sustainable to it which is and we've had a couple organizations contact us how did you do us and do this and packed one offshoot from marion you info ewing foundation we had fred go down and speak to them they had a they wanted to see how the birther of the idea how this worked and they they've created a fund that they actually call a fun but it is a foundation down there based on the exact same model and the the head of the foundation down there gosh you know thanks so much we've looked at a number of models and never seen this and we've used yours so hey that's that's great you know it's not a zero sum ska- on it's not like they're taking donors away from us well it's so neat how you to personally have gone from sort of the corporate world to i four prophet running running a startup the business have making you know helping to make it extremely successful and then transitioning again to not only something new novel but running a nonprofit conde's let me complete that though because what's really what's really going to be heartening for instance shine a medical greg pifer he's the CEO there that company has one hundred million now in funding in it's going to be huge and they're they're building three hundred fifty person building in janesville greg is said to me i wanna be a funder i was funded so i'm gonna be your first funded too nice yeah so wouldn't that be great ceos of fifty companies each gave us one hundred grand when they go out or more that was oh yeah so that really would that that would really complete things full circle the time shannon thank you so much for joining me on the show i'm glad you finally said yes and thank you for sharing your stories and for creating so many great stories here in the area area i mean it's well it's phenomenal so thank you very much thank you for having appreciate it glad i was here thanks thanks for listening to this episode of the how that happened podcast where we believe that success doesn't happen unless you make it happen you can subscribe to the podcast on apple podcast google podcasts stitcher church or wherever you like to listen and while you're there please rate it and leave a comment as well i'd love to hear your thoughts about the show ideas

university of wisconsin mike nella testa wisconsin tom shannon flu tom founder and CEO tom search business owner madison partner palm springs minneapolis saint paul mary sue denver twenty years fifty thousand dollars three years two years
Fast Money - 04/12/21

CNBC's Fast Money

45:25 min | 1 d ago

Fast Money - 04/12/21

"Get an edge. Invest like a pro access. Cnbc's livestreams around the globe unparalleled access to cnbc. Experts actionable investor incite and ideas. Start your free trial today at cnbc dot com slash pro. Leeann this past monday. Tonight straighter lineup. Guide army tim seymour. Karen feinerman and dan nathan. Tonight on fast. Let's make a deal. Microsoft shelling out sixteen billion dollars for nuance communications. So that got us thinking what should be the next text tie up. Our traders have some ideas. We'll bring them to you straight ahead. Plus an all clear for alibaba. Why one of our traders calling two point eight billion dollar fine. The best news we've seen in a while and later time to ante up draftkings falling six percent today. The stock is now down nearly twenty percent in the past month. So she's your doubled down on this pullback for we start off tonight with a semi smackdown the gloves coming off in the battle of the giants. Invidia fires of direct shot at intel. Let's get straight to. Josh lipton with all the details josh so melissa ceo jensen wong is transformed into a true powerhouse. With that companies graphics chips these are processors that generate images and accelerate. Now video plans to make its own servers. Cpu to those are the primary brains in most computing devices in video. Also saying t. That's first quarter. Revenue is tracking above its previous outlook of five point. three billion. And that's doc posted. Its best day here over a month. Some investors clearly saw in announcement as a direct shot at intel with reported twenty six billion in revenue permits data center group in two thousand and twenty. That was a jump eleven percent. that's doctors had. Its worst day since late february. So how bad is this news. Though for pat gelsinger techy. Patrick moore had capturing that his copy still does both certain advantages invidia with his new service is targeting more of a niche market. Patrick says and intel's still the giants dominates about ninety percent of this market. No response from intel on that invidia news. There was also that big one chip summit today remember. President binds infrastructure plan does include fifty billion dollars to the american chip industry. Melissa back to you josh. Quick question on the niche market point. How big is this market. Or how profitable is this to make the such a big deal that they're going after specifically this narrow part of the market. You're going after what it's called the hp hp mortgage so that is a market that would include things like national lab laboratories like los alamos. That's why patrick moorhead. In his point was saying one. These are different. Intel as dominating about ninety percent of that service you market and patrick's point is that intel's focus is different. It's really targeting. More general business uses and cloud providers. But we'll see how it plays out and listen all right. josh thanks. Josh lipton felt the details. There guida me. It was interesting to see how infiltrated because as soon as that released crossed from nvidia stock. Dropped like a rock zero sum game. I mean not only in terms of intel's move qualcomm got downgrade today. Stockton trade well obviously. Amd really well. Texas instruments has been hanging in there with the market is saying is you know who's the leader here and who we gonna. Who are we really going to get behind in terms of growth in video has a huge valuation. I think we all agree. But it's also might be the most exciting or chip name case spoke about that in early march by the way about twenty percent or so ago i still think there's value in the name d. I am surprised at how well texas instrument traits eight percent. Eps growth at a twenty-seven multiple. And just for you playing stock market at home note that today's high in invidious six fourteen ten was basically the same how we made back in february and we did it on three times normal. You're trading it trading around at today's not a bad day to say some chips off the table no pun intended for all the folks out there who thought that pat gelsinger was going to mark the start of an intel turnaround. Karen does that that go away or does that become diminished in any way because nvidia is going after this niche market. I'm not sure because. I don't know that he's really gotten time. I know the market really likes him and is comfortable and he's not new to the company but this wasn't entirely unexpected. I don't know but we're also not going to see the effects for a couple of years and then it sort of makes you wonder what what else could do after that. So i mean the stock in tel is inexpensive. It should be relatively inexpensive but this penalty. I think i'm starting to get a little bit interested sort of evaluation when i look at video. Obviously nvidia is just kicking on all cylinders. They talked about every line of their business doing better than they thought when they had the five point three billion number they put out today. The stock reflects a lot of really great things intel. Not so much. I'm more drawn to that value proposition. Even though this isn't great news for them also isn't great news for amd but they're sort of in between the two in terms of valuation and momentum. Right this new grace. Chip that nvidia is going to make won't be on the market. Twenty twenty three so to karen's point a couple years in that period of time intel has some leeway to sort of prove himself. prove itself. Tim don't you think we know that the amount of money until told you the amount of money. They need to reinvest or invest in their business and innovation. So there shouldn't be a surprise. Now this is the largest chip company coming after him in space as we've said dominate over ninety percent so to the extent that there's expected to be competition. I e how could you not have expected something like this and look. Intel was at all time highs when that news hit so. Let's be clear. I actually think that the performance isn't that bad from a training perspective on on on a daily basis as a traitor i think intel had had very strong move off that gelsinger announcement off that that investor day. It's not surprising it needed a catalyst to pull back a bit. But i wouldn't be running from the stock. I guess this this really begs the questions. Most obvious segue into a game of would you rather at this point Part of nvidia's move was not jeff's this announcement of this new grace trip also that that first quarter was tracking ahead of expectations is firing on all cylinders when it comes graphics chips. Hey i got the kicker from crypto crypto menia. That's going on. So would you rather at this point. Invidia would seem to be firing on all cylinders with the wind at its back or intel. Where you have to bank on a turnaround. Yeah think rather. Amd right here. Guide donnie power-pitch weeks ago. And i really like the relative underperformance right now to the smh. And i think there's obviously some overhang about the deal and what that means for this company going forward so i'd rather amd here with guy. And i actually agree on the invidia that i think that you probably take profits at prior all time high rate here. I'll just make one point. You just said it. Now that these chips are not going to be on market until two thousand twenty three when i look estimates for nvidia going forward i'm expecting or at least the street is expecting low thirty percent. Eps growth and sales growth this current fiscal year. And then they're expecting it to decelerate to about ten eleven percent for both in fiscal twenty twenty three. Well that's the year that these are going to start hitting the market from a competitive standpoint. So it seems like this valuation about seventeen times sales forty five times earnings with that expected deceleration. Immediate needs to do something here so to me. This makes sense. But there's a lot of time that's going to happen between here. And then and i think intel. Amd probably trade okay in the meantime given the shortages that we're seeing right now in the space you please play my reindeer game. I guess. I like what dan did. He went off the board for five hundred. But the answer. Your question in terms of the way. You framed it. I i would rather intel and it's got nothing to do with what thing about everything to do with the stock traded today the run its hat off a four ninety five in fact that it traded up to and for day at least you know failed at that six fourteen and change level. I think tim's point about intel as right as cairns in terms evaluation so given today's price action where both stocks are the answer is intel and the game of. Would you rather thank you for that. Our next guest videos move onto in toaster makes a lot of strategic. Let's bring in jerry. Weiss fell tech sector specialists at jefferies jerry. Good to see you again. it's beer. Why is going after this niche market. So important well. I think it speaks to. What invidia is focused on over the next five to fifteen years right during the middle of acquiring are more trying to for forty billion dollars may know the ballot for the data center is at risk and by acquiring armed. They're going to get access to this critical technology but they don't need to they're showing the innovation that's occurring before they're even getting through this acquisition so you think about the benefits that they're talking about. They're talking about ten times improved performance utilizing their own gray. Cpu combined with their own accelerators. Their gpa us. That's a meaningful mullets meaningful amount. So you start with each segment. Like hp see high performance compute and a i artificial intelligence and then what you do. Is you build credibility before you start going into the larger total addressable market so it makes a lot of sense and it also makes sense that they're partnering with amazon. They're partnering with mediatek partnering with marvel as they're going through this regulatory process it certainly makes sense to get as many friends as possible within the partner ecosystem so it's only speaks to the long-term structural growth within data center and how they're attacking the market from an architectural perspective. Hey jared tim. Does this do anything or add. Complexity to the antitrust around invidia r. m. i mean. Is that something that you think makes this deal more complicated. Obviously not challenging intel orc challenge to intel and data center. That's welcomed. I'm sure on some level by the industry but to the overall dynamics going on between this as you said takeover. They're trying to get done. Do you think this complicates that. I think if anything it can speak to the fact that beer innovating so aggressively within the army ca system if your partner and you're seeing them innovate like this and deliver this kind of product about. You're going to be happy. And they're courting according department. And so i take that as an incremental positive in terms of just the progress that they're trying to make With respect to regulatory. I think the big carl is going to be china. Can they get samur approval. You saw applied materials and kokusai governor jetted from a few weeks ago. So i think you know this is going to be a long process. They laid out about eighteen month. Time line. so. We're still very early days. But i think it's an incremental step in the right direction as they secure partner ecosystem Jared it's dan. Thanks for joining us. Bud hey so as far as semi equipment stocks go. How would you see this. Changing any of the deck chairs that are set up. We know that. Taiwan semi keeps raising their cap bac. So there's some major tailwinds red hat right now. How an entry into this market and the closure of the arm deal. What does it mean for seventy catholic whitman stocks in particular. Either for sure you take a step back and you look at the semiconductor capital equipment. Landscaping including applied materials l. a. tencor et cetera. There in a very good position right now when you think about the fact that we're in a significant shortage. We obviously had the summit at the white house today with multiple executives from the automotive industry and the semiconductor industry talking about when they can alleviate that shortage it plays into the fact that you know we're going to be in for at least the next six to nine months so cynically during a very good spot but it's an interesting to them. Because from a structural standpoint you think about artificial intelligence in hp type workloads they're gonna be using and leveraging silicon that significantly larger in nature on a millimeter square basis. So what that means that demand for semiconductor capital equipment. The intensity is only going to increase. So this is no doubt a long-term structural positive for the entire semiconductor capital. It sounds like you think. There's more upside to semi cap equipment as opposed to semi conductors. Just in a very sweet spot right now not only cyclical benefit and if you listen to applied materials analysts. That was hosted Last week they talked about eighty five billion dollars in wafer fab equipment spent over the next few years. And you also have multinationals you have china. You have the us you. You're looking to ask acidy from a from a national perspective in terms of just nation-backed foundry so they've got very significant. Tell their backs all right. And while we have you. Jared got to get your quick thoughts on on microsoft for nuance. Think of this. So yeah listen. Sigmar that position in microsoft's history behind linked in and it's all about augmenting their total just market so augmenting microsoft healthcare cloud. They're doubling their town. Their total crystal market to five hundred billion dollars combining nuances. Ai algorithms with microsoft's leadership in zora on the cloud side and so not only are they attacking the healthcare market in a pretty meaningful way leveraging the existing microsoft capabilities but they're bringing very significant and critical i p towards microsoft teams so you think about microsoft teams which is the competitor to slack there microsoft's teams to the point. Where even sajjan adele's package is now based on team's performance so they're all in increasing and augmenting the capabilities from a team standpoint. And they're going to be able to integrate seamlessly with with new onset of makes a lot of strategic sense. Are jerry great to see you. Thanks for thoughts here at felt. I think that's that was interesting. In terms of the dallas compensation is tied to teams. And what would that mean to not just the slack but also to zoom. Let's say. Dan what do you think. Yeah i mean this is a pretty sneaky little acquisition here. Twenty billion debt. And everything like that. It's a rounding error on microsoft's market cap and even on their balance sheet. And i think jared laid it out why they're doing here. They're adding some capabilities. Azar is becoming more and more of a competitor. That's one of the reasons why microsoft's almost a two trillion dollar market cap so to me. This makes sense they can. They can basically do whatever they want. They were looking at the tiktok. They were looking at discord. There were looking at this one. It's literally one percent of their sales but it means so much more to them if it's done and gives them the access to some of these markets where they think they can flex with their cloud. Yeah they wanted to do something it was. It was very very apparent and karen. Maybe the the big tallies the movement or the lack of movement and microsoft stock in response to this deal right. Well if you think about it. An all cash deals so they had cash sitting on the sidelines. Basically earning nothing and they could buy this. Which is strategically important. They said it would be dilutive one percent in the first year and then creative thereafter. And it's still there would be no change in the company's twenty billion dollar buy-back so to dance point you know. They can do whatever they want this. This makes sense to me all right. Well this sixteen billion dollar deal for nuance scotus. Thinking who should be the next tech tie ups. We're gonna play a little game of. Let's make a deal tech takeover edition each traders come up with their perfect hair. Wanna kick things off with karen. What are you thinking. yeah. I got it perfect pair. So it's peleton and tonal. So i know that's not and you may not think of this. Of course it's tech. It's not just a bike right. It's a consumer tech product. They already have the bike. Obviously they have the treadmill they have the classes but what they don't have is serious weight training. And that's what tonal is and it just fits on your wall so dan. You could have it next to your your treadmill and it makes perfect sense that they would integrate all these aspects of being fit and have your own little gym. And if peleton buys tonal they can be pella. Tonal meant to happen well. The name is is pretty. Catchy so tunnel. Yeah dan what do you think since since you are a A peleton user. Well i'm obviously do the weights to you can just tell so. Yeah no i think that makes sense. I think we were talking about it earlier. The lulu mirror thing was really interesting. Obviously peleton is buying that precourt. So i mean they're looking to beef up whatever they have. But i've already be up here. I mean your suit will rip off your body if you continue to do what you're ten. What's putting you in terms of your tie up. What do you think yeah so mindset a fintech top and to me. This is square buying lending tree and and to me. This deal makes a ton of sense for Both capital markets reasons. And i think a fit ultimately squares cash app is the kind of the one stop stickiness. That's allowed this company to grow and ultimately means you never have to leave. Why not let you know layer in lendingtree which is a three billion dollar company. Well off ties had A lot of run into its last fourth quarter numbers frankly disappointing on margins disappointing on earnings. The stock has collapsed and yet this is a full suite of products and consumer finance. And you know whether it's lending whether it's insurance it's makes a lot of sense to me. I think for the profile that squares building again square in terms of that stock using that as a currency after effectively being three times where it was pre covid We know what they're doing in terms of this this overall strategy and i think this makes a ton of stops all right dan. You're tire. yeah so you know. There was a headline last week. That amazon is about ten percent of the us ad market right now. They're just a behemoth they're gonna do sixteen billion dollars in sales here. I think they're twitter and snap ultimately have to merge those two combined have about nine billion dollars in expected sales most of that is obviously digital ads. Right here now. listen. I used to think that an alphabet or a facebook or maybe even an apple might buy one of these guys but with the regulatory and some of those big social add names. I just don't see it so amazon. Coming up here. They're going to become a behemoth. And i think that you're going to need to see twitter and snap which really don't have overlapping products. I don't think that would be an issue with just regulators here. I think they need to be up. And i think that they could be a meaningful competitor to facebook and some of the properties that google has an interesting one guy. How about you look. I should say pick me monte for you odd couple fans out there. That's an whole mosh to mind. Paul number one number two all. These deals are fantastic but listen. They all integration risk potentially regulatory risk. You know they'll get past them. And i love the deals. Here's one that has no integration risk. No regulatory risk and this company would spend ten percent of their cash award. That would be apple buying the bitcoin and it's interesting you hear michael. Sale or from micro saturday's talk about balance sheets being basically turning a negative into a positive when they transform their cast positions into bitcoin positions. Twenty five billion dollars for apple. It's ten percent of their cash short. It's nothing and i think the ramifications would be huge not only for apple stock but for the industry as well so that would be my sort of off the chart tech. Wrap up or would you call it. Meet up or something amateur. We deal with the implication be. That apple eventually accepts bitcoin as payment or will use it. Maybe as part of its payment system with does that make sense. Isn't that seamless in terms of what they're doing going forward and listen to michael again. Go back and look at the some of the things that michael seller said about balance sheets into transformation thereof and for apple. It'd be a small foray into something be potentially huge. Actually think right coming up pal. Feeling the pain the softball in nearly three percent today but we saw something bubbling up in the options market. That suggests a turnaround is in the works. We'll bring you the trade the i if you don't own it by it you do own it five some more. That's the one of our trade. Says you should do with alibaba. Y two point. Eight billion dollar fine is actually great news for investors all that and more when fast money returns invest like pro access. cnbc's livestreams around the glow unparalleled access to cnbc. Experts actionable investor insight and ideas. Start your free trial today at cnbc dot com slash pro back to pass money. Alibaba the tape. Today the company hit with a two point billion dollar fine by chinese regulators as a result of an anti-monopoly investigation karen. You're saying that it's the best news we've seen for baba in a while. Why yes because you know. Basically they were think of them as a metaphor being on trial and the trials over now and they got the tiniest slap on the wrist. And it's over. That's it when we look at december twentieth stocks. Two hundred and fifty six and then. This announcement of this antitrust investigation was announced traded. Down to two twenty that day. Now if i had told you or me because i was a sad holder that day that there would be a less than one percent penalty and then the investigation would be over. I'd be pretty happy with that. So i'm pretty happy with this outcome and i think that we're the stock opened today. It really wasn't fully reflecting. i think it's on. its way back up now. We had also ant financial. Had some clarity. there is well. I do think ant financial the value has been somewhat diminished but not nearly as much as the overall stock in baba has so i bought. I was long going into today. I bought some more today. And i didn't quite get as much as i wanted and kind of took off a little bit but this is very very good news. Yeah we got to go to the ambassador as well for his thoughts on on baba tim and is it too early or too soon to say. It's all clear for for chinese tech. In general or is there still an overhang that regulators go after other tech companies. The guy this. At least from sammer i think this investigation is closed and as someone who's been investing in emerging market for a long time. I love to see these kind of settlements. What i didn't want to hear them say is actually. We dispute the findings of the anti monopoly group. And we're going to contest. This is the worst thing they could have done I love the fact that in fact the headline i saw said something along the lines of We thank them for their guidance and they will move on and they'll thank them. Thank you sir. Have another This is great news. This is what you want to see in a an emerging markets environment. Where big brother certainly can do what they want here. I also have said all along. I actually think that they are guilty. Of this. Actually think that what the regulator is doing in china to build a proper both support the tech industry to build an ecommerce industry. I think is the right thing to do. And and i also long alibaba and i think buying on this news is important guy. What do you think. Is this really. The all clear for alibaba. Or does this tell you that regulators can effectively come in and find you for anti monopolistic practices etcetera etcetera anytime. They want to could happen again. Right but the markets learn how to deal with it. I think karen makes a great point of love when she cites levels because that to twenty level that she talked about. If you go back to january twenty twenty you know the stockmen and all time high right around two twenty five and then sold off. Pretty precipitously so past resistance becomes support and we founded in the wake of two hundred twenty dollars a share. So i think you have something to trade against. And i do think the all clear so with this one for sure. What do you think a basket of chinese internet stature basket of the us. Internet stocks probably china here and and i think a lot to do with the fact that sediments really bad they perform really bad. But i don't know if you remember this bell we used to have this chart formation. Used to have a graphic. I don't know if they can find. Remember the triangle of death. This chart really does have the triangle of death chart now to twenty is clearly that neckline have you want to look at a one year chart and you look at the left and the right shoulder's guy you know that that left shoulder can't have to shoulders here so i look at that down trend. You might have clear sailing up to two fifty but if it gets rejected there you might see another re-test of the to twenty level and just watch out below it gets below that being said. I prefer the chinese internet because of the under performance over the last few months left shoulder to shoulder. That sounds pretty bad. Sounds awful sounds like an awful. We've got a lot more ahead. Here's coming up. buber shares. Try behind the ride. Hailing company post record bookings his this the ultimate reopening signal that trade ahead but first one top strategist as calling this market. The strangest he's ever seen one on phenomenon is he referring to now what's says playbook those details next. We've got that an a lot more when fast money returns. What exchange is now a podcast. I'm brian sullivan. Join me as we hit the biggest money stories from around the world breaking down the risks and rewards global trade. The news you need to know. What real world actionable advice and even a little fun and unique content. You won't get anywhere else like the most random but interesting thing you'll hear all day subscribed the worldwide exchange podcast today. They're welcome back to pass sox. Finishing the day in the red as investors gear for earning season and the setup has been strong the dow s and p five hundred sitting near record levels and our next guest is questioning the level of market. Exuberance calling it. The strangest melt appears. Ever seen julia. Manual is chief equity derivatives. Strategist julian good to have you with us. Strangest you've ever seen in your entire career. Why well basically if you look at the month of april it's an incredibly strong month and really almost straight up you know. Today was a tiny tiny pause in the uptrend. And when you think about that kind of melbourne tight action what you would normally expect is rising volumes. Rising enthusiasm rising call vines especially since Call buying on. The part of the public has been a big story. The last nine months we've got just the opposite and so it. It really is a puzzling on the one hand. We think it's actually a positive sign because what it says. Is that bigger picture. This isn't sort of the end of end rallies of what's only twelve months bull market when the average bull market lasts almost four years and rises one hundred fifty percent. We're up eighty five percent twelve months but at the same time. It's a little bit more cautionary when we think about the potential for earning season to be upside catalyst. That's not likely going to be the case in the weeks ahead gillian. It's karen let me ask you said about volume if the volume were much greater than would you be thinking. The market is reaching a peak. Would be thinking likely. There's more explosive upside given the fact that when you think about it We've overcome just a number of things Rises and falls in the mean stocks rises and falls in e specs solar stocks. All of these things. That essentially have been quite speculative but if we were seeing rising volume and rising price we would say there's more to it but that having been said with the vicks down around sixteen seventeen you're still looking to put on downside hedges in case the music stops and when the activity gets friends. You'd like that you don't ever know when the music's going to stop jill nealon must gassed. Kathy would have pretty pretty much rhetorical question. I think at least you knew the answer to us. Put it that way about market cap. The market cap over. Gdp doesn't matter. We had an interesting conversation last week about it. Does it matter because as we sit here you know. We're somewhere between one hundred and sixty five percent one hundred and eighty percent s&p over gdp Market seems not to care. Should we these when it comes to valuation metrics. What we've seen is the market doesn't care until it cares. The question is what's going to get it to care and if we go back to the beginning of the year. We've had these hiccups every now. And then when yield started rising perhaps a bit too strongly. Now we go back to chair powell on television last night. That's not likely going to be the case that we're gonna have yields rising strongly. What it says is that if you're committing new capital to the market right now. You shouldn't expect the prophet right away. What we've seen though is that when you've had a paradigm of the market's sustained valuation at this extreme for a long period of time again this early into the bull market cycle. What we're likely going to have it. There's a period of digestion before we move higher but it is the market saying that it expects earnings and particularly now economic growth to catch up with valuations in the notes that i got from our producer here. Julian were very interesting. Because it says that you were very very with a very very in all caps bullish on bitcoin. And so i'm wondering if if let's say somebody at home. Had you know some of money. Let's just say ten thousand dollars for argument's sake to put some place from now until the end of the year would that be in. Us equities or would that be in bitcoin. So here's here's our view on. Bitcoin long-term we think it's the. The story is very sound. we think that it is likely to become an increasingly more. Important percentage of someone's asset. We think for now. There's some digestion. To be done. There is a very important akiko coming out this week. We want to see how digital assets respond We would say that with both. Us equities and bitcoin. You need to think long term we do think both are going higher. We do think that. Bitcoin looks quite strong into next year. But don't buy it just because you think this. Ipo is going to be successful this week. Okay julianne thank you julian emmanuel upbeat for somebody who thinks bitcoin is going to be at ninety two grand next year. Tim sound like bitcoin me. But what do you make jillions assessment of this melt-up well. First of all april is is seasonally always a great month for the market always often is and may june often can be awful months. So look at the expectation of this. Earning season being remarkable Is is something that that. I am concerned about it. I'm more concerned about the point. In which analysts and companies themselves have actually started to talk about normalized earnings so I do think you have For example let's take the financials banks of rallied dramatically into this. I own money backs Do i expect the numbers to be good. I think they're going to be great I think banks follow the script that they followed and they typically follow or have in the last six or seven quarters. They're going to trade down on this news and it's going to take them three weeks into earning season for them to pick up steam again and i think that's kind of where we are with the market and by the way they always try it always seems like they trade down on earnings dan. That's the pattern. Do i think it's like tim outline. I think it's a particularly hard setup for a lot of companies that are especially sectors that have done outperformed mentioned one thing you know about. Julian's caution near-term about this. What feels like euphoria. It's really hard to find bear cases for the market right now really hard. He talks about in his career. He hasn't seen this or that. I can't remember a time. Where just the universal bullishness because of so many odd things that have happened specifically over the last year namely six trillion dollars in stimulus which is about thirty percent of the market cap that we have here in the us. And i'll just make one last point you know this year although we are up nearly ten percent the s. and p. five hundred. We've seen to massive dislocations in the market which is really actually should be very to a lot of people about market structure the first one in january about shorts and the other one obviously with our k. Goes about lawns. And if you think that is the only fund out there that has very concentrated very levered bats in stocks that have appreciated a lot. You got another thing coming. So if there is a reason for the market sell off then you remember that whole thing about total return swaps and the kind of opaqueness that we see there. You know this is going to be an issue here. so. I don't know what the reason i'm not calling for a big decline. But the market structure has been tested this year in both ways and i don't think it's really held up particularly well right now coming up best month ever uber. Driving in a record number of bookings for march you speed into this name. We got the trade ahead. Plus shares draftkings dropping. Stock is now down nearly twenty percent in just a month time to ante up stick around. We've got all that and much more when fast money comes right back. Welcome back to pass money. Shares of uber jumping three percent today. The company announcing record gross bookings in march assigned. Things might be getting back to normal in the ride hailing business. We've heard from uber. Ceo dara khosrowshahi. Cnbc's new show tech check earlier today. Here's what he said about the past profitability but we talk about adjusted across profitability. Getting there this year. We meet profitability after overhead on orbital basis so all in profitability and that will include businesses that were leading into like groceries where we will be losing money and investing just because the opportunity is so big and then we will have businesses like i'm ability business. That are a bit more mature where we have stronger margins essentially able to fund some of these growth businesses. What i thought was also really interesting. Dan was that it wasn't just gross bookings per rise. But it was also record bookings for food delivery because the premise had always been. Well it's going to do really well and food delivery during the pandemic and then when things change around that's going to go down. Yeah i've heard him speak in numerous times. He had a really great interview with care. Swisher a couple of months ago and they were saying. Listen some of this behavior that a lot of wall street was betting against you know and the in the throes of the pandemic has accelerated in tier to stay so. I think you can actually count on that food delivery. They've made some moves. They bought postmates right. So they're consolidating around that so you know i. It seems like they haven't firing all cylinders. I'll just tell you if someone who has been there the whole time during the pandemic it's still like a seven minute. Wait time to get an uber. So i'm just a little skeptical about that record rides number interesting. Should we draw any conclusions with lift. Just last month saying that ride levels have reached pre pandemic levels versus record levels whereas uber saying record levels. Tim look i. I i believe they were both see beyond cova demand as we get into the early summer not the late summer and i think the pent up demand means we overshoot and i think Like i actually love. Hearing uber talk about their investment into grocery must be a lot of amazon. I realize very different but low margin business Where at some point. That investment gives them a major mode at least a headstart other people And i think it's something that's worth investing in now. Wall they have gross bookings at record levels also across the business. So i i liked uber. Story here Like for both rideshare companies the dominant ones that the backdrop for reopening strong which one guy lift lift learned played that game so well that time didn't even hesitate can learn from mistakes. I mean i think lift has think they're pathway to profitability is clearer than uber's lift access and traded as well as recently but i think in earnings on may twelfth yellen lift uber. All right coming up a double dose of opportunity. First updraft going cold recently the stock down nearly twenty percent a month. Should you bet on this fullback plus pailin tears pulling back but option. Traders are betting on a turnaround happening very soon but right down the action when fast when it comes right back off activist time for today's buzzkill checkout draftkings dropping more than six percent. Lady luck not helping the sports betting sock recently. Draftkings is now down nearly twenty percent in the past month and we also saw some weakness mother of the recent today lulenar quantum scape virgin lordstown all sinks big losses on. Timmy flagged. This what do you make of well. I think draft kings has a couple of things. I'm long draftkings. First of all and the argument here is not you know profitability short-to-medium-term. It's about growing market share and some Some formulate reports of how they will participate in that The new york Gambling proposals the legislation coming through. It looks really cloudy at best very confusing. I think that's a negative look in terms of broader money into the stock market. If we wanna still call draft it is i think it's trading You know really on the fundamentals of the company not on spec fundamentals. I think Back land there have been a lot of issues with with essentially the pipes that are funding a lot of these backs really being the punctuation on on how impact investors have been on the deal or not and i think the pike market is going through some some pain right now. I think there's a lot deals out there. There's a lot of indigestion. There's a lot of folks that are that are pulling back. And i think there's a lot of folks in the capital market side. That are pulling back on those deals because they don't see an appetite. Karen you also you you all were talking about this on the call earlier today but karen. What specifically are you seeing. I'm seeing what tim's seeing which is the pipes which suspect they may sell shares to the public but then also they wanna have investors that they know will vote with them and those are called pipe investors. i think it's private investment in public entities. I think is the acronym and so they helped secure the deal and get more money and enable the sponsor to know that. They're going to get a deal done so. I think the word. Tim used indigestion is perfect so many of the pipe players have more than maybe more than they want given how. Some of the specs are trading. Now when they're all trading upgrade. Sure everyone's got up type for more but now that they're getting close in many cases to ten or even below ten. It's not as not as enticing. So i that indigestion needs to work its way through before we see more in the stock market and i don't know if this is. I don't know if it's fully thought yet this cold streak little more time. I think. I don't know if you guys caught the cover of new york magazine. But this seemed to me like a sign of the top win. Spec the acronym makes to the cover of new york magazine. Can i back my stunks with. Nfc's guy you say that to me knowing full well the response. You're going to get a stain. I'm gonna go. It's you wind me up. You wind me up right. You create this right and now it's in my head. It's going to upset me the rest of the night despite the yankee outcome tonight i'm now not happy. Visit is a top. We've sent a number of things like this. Should in theory be a sign of the top at the market doesn't seem to care just quickly. In terms of these pipes being clogged it would be fascinating to see. Metamucil rolled up in a spec. Think about that that would clean up those pipes in a second. I don't even know how to respond to that. I'm just going to let that go. Coming up is pound here. Prime to pop we Spider something today in the options market. That could point to a turnaround in the work. full break. i win fast. money returns. Welcome back pass money pailin tier pulling back today falling more than three percent but a lot of retail trader activity in the options market seems to be pointing to a very quick recovery. Let's bring in mike for more to see. Yeah so pailin. Tear option saw above average call activity today about ninety thousand contracts more than grades on average in the most action was seen in the twenty four twenty five and twenty six strike calls april that expire this coming friday. The twenty four strike calls for example trade about forty five thousand contracts trading. For just under seventy cents. A buyers of those are obviously betting that the stock could recover above twenty five or so by the end of the week. All right mice gonna stick around. Dan did you think of talent here. Well it's really interesting. Based on that other conversation we're having about smacks. This stock is down. Fifty percent from its all time highs out of the way down in the year versus the nasdaq and that's either up nearly ten percent. So i think this is another sign of just some enthusiasm coming out of some of these ones very hot parts of the stock market. Yeah if memory serves guy p in your hope. Trade was pailin tier and hope springs. Eternal and your memory is well served clearly into dance point and hasn't been listened after traded up to thirty nine and change stocks twenty three now and it has not been performed at all but cathy would keeps talking about how much she loves the stock and then she decided another million shares earnings on may eleventh. You buy the stock. Let's it's been very difficult. I get it. I think people are concerned. They can't scale down their offerings for medium-sized businesses. I think they'll figure out. And i think it's still worthy of the pe- in the hope trade harry michael. Thanks for that. And for the polls show transaction. It's friday five thirty. Pm eastern time coming up next year final traits checkout shares a chipotle mexican grill heading an all time high today gun upgrade also got a price target raves guy. You flag this one on our call. Because i'm a huge fan. I think they do wonderful things. It's talking about a great turnaround story. This will be in the harvard business review. You'll be reading about this twenty years from now how they turn what was really a dire situation and probably one of the best fast food companies out there. People knocking on valuation. Ray j just gave an eight hundred hundred dollar price target. I think nicole miller piper jaffrey as a two thousand dollar price target. You stay long this name into earnings. I believe able twenty-first real blow up. It is time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn tnc war. Yeah i don't think this news today. By and videos and blow out for intel in fact that the turnaround at intel really's about investment in their core businesses and i think cpu and server still remained so karen feinerman. Yeah my final is viacom. I think the dust is settled on k goes and i think we'll see some analysts who had to blow out during the whole craziness start to come back in. It's a good value at this price. Dan nathan yes so one game. I did play well for you mel was. Would you rather chinese center tonight. Stocks one way to play the chinese docs fsi excise. Some of the big names make up a big way. I appreciate it. That dan guy dommie. Amen that that whole thing. We did got me thinking. Am at all right. Thanks to watching fast money. See back here tomorrow. Five or more fast meantime. Don't go anywhere mad. Money with jim. Cramer starts right now. You've got to take a listen to this. it's squad that's right. Cnbc's flagship business news. Show is a podcast. Squawk pot control to is not just the show folks might be even better because it's only audio join me. Katie kramer as. I take you inside the squawk box control room and beyond the headlines of our tv broadcast with joe kernan becky quick and andrew. Ross sorkin every weekday. Subscribe to squawk pot on apple podcasts. Spotify stitcher or wherever you get your podcasts.

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The Interview w/ Raoul Pal & Marc Cohodes: When Megatrends Collide

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

1:15:18 hr | 6 months ago

The Interview w/ Raoul Pal & Marc Cohodes: When Megatrends Collide

"Support for this podcast and the following message come from American Express. Small businesses are what keep our community together, which is why it's so important to help them. Succeed. American Express has created a new platform that all small business owners can use to keep their dream alive stand for small dot Com. They brought together a hundred plus companies to provide offers and resources to help small business owners get back to doing what they do best following dream serving a community and employing America Stanford small dot com slash podcast powered by American Express. Mark Welcome. Back finally again to real vision, it's been a while since we caught up. A dull row was great ted catch up with you finally. Yeah. Listen you know obviously, you've got one of the best kind of twitter experiences in the world and I always follow what you do because you live in very different world. I'm a macro guy, you're a single stock guy and I. I've always fascinated and learning from somebody like you just approached everything. So differently in, it's always an incredible experience and I've noticed some strange goings on in terms of the things you're looking at the kind of blow me away stop me in my tracks and. I'd love to go through the overstock story because I think that's something I think people weren't imagine that it something you'd be looking at, but it's become a really amazing an incredible home run view as well thus far. So I'd love to hear your story of I was because you have pre story to this as well. Didn't they? All have a priest story, the real story I mean. So I go back with overstock probably to the year two thousand or something close to that. And back in my prior life couple lives ago I was in the Hedge Fund business and we were short overstock without the company was completely out of Control, mismanaged by Felony Patrick burned. And we thought the company was a great short. We thought this is about twenty. Stock went eighty guide APPS killed eventually there. burns accounting caught up to him stop blew up we got sued. For a wide variety of reasons all crazy a Sudas for billion dollars. David Rock retired from the business ended up settling it with Burnin overstock at the time for seven million, I gave A. A. Legendary deposition when overstock also who go Goldman Sachs in the prime brokers for naked shorting overstocked prevailed actually I think my deposition health. And it was doorman it was a dead issue. Closed the Hedge Fund in two, thousand nine. Not Well, known store that's that's been told. And Somewhere. In the two thousand seventeen timeframe I got a call from a lady who I like name Jillian mcintire and she said if you ever looked at overstock lately. I said it is a what, and she says is law. I said no why she said Internet's in cleaned up a cost her way down making little money but they have these various blockchain. They've got into which really interesting. So I. I'm not doing anything of that fancy stocks, around fifteen. And I call burn my old archenemy. But I always kind of liked burn kind of crazy genius. He's a three time cancer survivors always respected them. For fighting through that and he in, there are many stories out there about him. How he survived experimental drugs Eddie took. So I I really I've had a lot of friends dia cancer. Lately, so I really admire the fight that. He went through. So we sort of buried the hatchet told me the story. I thought he changed. On and I thought, he really put together some great assets on the blockchain side. And Retail. Or the DOT COM business. was very cheap and net net net net net since they've been in business since two, thousand Amazon and overstock on business same time. Overstock actually is not made money. So. I thought it was it was great. Thought it was cheap. I thought there were multiple ways to win. Bought the stock. Grants. that. October about. Thirty. Told people is going to go away the Cup went to about ninety and Burn basically didn't. Change his spots which I knew was a risk. And was acting crazy and reckless. Scotland, back down. Town crazy stories. About, the Russian spine, all this kind of stuff and. Basically wrote a letter to the board and got hold everyone I said he's basically going to ruin the company at this is allowed to go on. And I. said I think he needs to go and they are ready to burn. And I'll stop was. The Time Twenty, two, twenty, three, twenty, four, last year probably this time last year. So. When all the way back down. Earnings goes in cells all. His stock, it. Nineteen. new comes in Johnson Johnson who I like a lot. I call him Joe Gibbs Hall of fame coach of the redskins now. And I flew out to Utah to meet with them. October last year. And basically said that I think you have a great thing but you need to clean it up. We need to bring in your people you need simplify story in the to just flat out execute because people think you're just going away I don't think you are. You have great blockchain assets. and. You just need to make things simple. So he didn't say anything he just took it all in. Market falls apart. As we know with Kobe. Star goes to three. Is keep eye on. Your way through this. Bomb buying it from from one Johnson came in. It fifteen down to three. Yeah. And Johnson also buy stock. In the high twos in I think said were march of this year. And kind of the rest is history he had he got. Pat Com cleaned up. and. When covert hit it created an interest to what they do, which is basically selling. In a home furnishings and things on the web and their sales which were. Supposed to do a billion for this year. I The stock was so ridiculously cheap with cash wasn't even funny. I think now they'll do with a little. Tail. And I think they'll do two and a half billion. And the stocks basically gone from three it hit one, hundred, twenty, five, the other day I'll. Take Ninety s still like this thing a lot I like it a lot for a lot of reasons, and it's it's actually cheap compared to wayfair are executing at a high level. Sales were up one hundred and some odd percent last quarter than they're making money they're throwing cash it just raised pile money so. I think he's Johnson is dearest this company hugely. The a very big GSA contract or it's them Amazon Thermal Fisher. So I think overstock is now the Anti Amazon and doing business with the government and. I think the opportunities are huge but. I I'll say my son. Teaches. Me gives me perseverance. I always say never let go of the rope unless I'd take the rope to wrap around enemies throw. But it's important not to quit or give up if you think you're right and it's important. See. Thanks ruin. People can Sam people can say all sorts of things but I always say luck favors the well prepared. And, I think overstocked was well prepared for this environment and I. Think you know people like target were well prepared for this environment mean targets not involved in target I happen to be really good friends with the guy runs it in and it bothers me sometimes where people say Koga disco that Cova deaths, the people who benefited from what goes on our people who can roll with the punches and are flexible who invest in things like this for when a crazy things are a black swan events can happen. We had one and. overstocks been a win I. Think will still be a huge winner One thing is clear up but I don't think. The world gets back to normal anytime soon, took me about the block chain stuff. This must have been relatively new to that point. So you have to get up to speed and figuring out what the hell is and what it means when I short stock I tried to find many ways to win not just one because life changes and things change in company's Consol or create new issues on the flies. So I never liked being involved in single shot ways to win or loose I view overstock in the blockchain as. A wonderfully commerce business right now. and. You'll have their various blockchain businesses which I do as lottery tickets. I think you have the daily scratchers. which you may win or lose You got some some Lotto's and you half powerball. And I think part of those tickets are going to be ripped up or not worth anything I. Think they're GonNa hit on some Lotto numbers some big ones and I think there will on the way on hitting on some powerball. And we're an environment right now that if you hit a powerball as no stocks can go beyond linear I, mean they could be a nuclear fueled. Event and I think overstock has a couple of those not all gonna hit. They're not all expected to hit in right now Wall Street's paying zero for anything with with blockchain I think the The stock is is cheap compared to some of its peers on commerce and I think you'd get all their blockchain initiatives for free normally some like you would say, well, they're not focusing on their core business why they do it how did you get that hurdle to say? All right this is really a creative and it's meaningful and it really could be something all. This is the burns dilemma if you will I think Patrick had the vision. On blockchain, he had the vision. CRYPTO. I could really care less on Crypto crypto doesn't interest me at all in overstocks not a crypto play he had these visions. But. In Patrick's genus in his his genius. His failings are that of execution. and. He just didn't execute on these things. He has a whole bunch of assets. That basically are there. And are not. Is. I would say actively or properly managed and. Wall Street and others have given them zero evaluation. So if something is valued at zero and I, think a business or a concept or thought is intriguing in my mind, it's worth more than zero. It can be possibly life altering in. Crazy. and we're in an environment where. New Initiatives in wide open markets. With the proper management. Can really prosper in what I think over stocks GonNa do and what I think Johnson's GonNa do again he's an execution guy he's not classy pie in the sky type person I think he's GonNa. Do is partner some of these things off he can token is these assets can into that in a minute? And and he can really run something that my friend bravery safflower calls the fly will. Where people will then start to really dig into these businesses and say, wait a minute you know overstock owns significant part of a company called boats, which is blockchain voted now, if blockchain voting or votes was public right now or was in a spat or votes gets tokens, votes would be worth in my mind a hell of a lot of money. because. Part. In my mind of finding stocks that go way up like way the hell up is finding a solution. To a really big problem. And I have a friend Alan Hickok as a restaurant guy. Can is a brilliant consultant and he said it's not the guys who succeed with. ME. New Restaurants in new publicly traded companies restaurants with new. They never work the guys work in the things that work are finding a huge market and doing better. Being starbucks found the corner coffee shop mean back when you and I were young there was no starbucks you buy coffee at the corner diner coffee shop or whatever. And starbucks said, we can do this better. We can make a better cup of coffee or an espresso free standing store. They'd absolutely wiped out the so-called corner coffee shop used to be one word younger. There is Strawberry Vanilla chocolate ice cream than Ben and Jerry's came around then haagen-dazs came around non no one each strawberry vanilla chocolate ice cream the grocery store there's there's a ton of skews various things or again back when you and I were degenerates drinking beer there was budweiser there was. Miller. Schlitz. Pence what there was, and then when craft brew came along the Up and start cramming craft brews than taking from beer guys for the past forty years they've been taking share most famous one is Sam Adams. So it's finding. Big markets or big problems where he can offer a solution. And votes or blockchain voting in my mind and I think at some point in the near future blockchain voting is going to be a big deal named people can't stand ballots. For safety reasons, they think the males not safe. Well, hell. If you do banking on your phone where you can trade stocks on your phone, you sure can vote on your phone with three. Three encrypted ways to figure out who's who so votes is one of their portfolio companies that I'm excited about. Land Development with MEDICI. Is Important with titling in third world countries if something called bit, which is a digital wallet that they're working on Caribbean. They have something that you know that. That checks out your your health car your put your health on our or your diseases or medical history on the blockchain. I think that's really important but the one. To me that can be the Grand Slam over mollahs something called t zero. And t zero is there called ATS alternative `to consistent. It's an exchange. And they have patents up down and sideways you basically can token is assets in trade things on their exchange and Fleckenstein was by here think two three weeks ago, and he's a careful thinker and he's a brilliant mind and these are really good friends. And we started talking about it. And I'm not. I'm not rocket scientists in nodded engineer. I can't talk about Al, Gore rhythms in all sorts of crazy stuff. I'm just like a regular guy who tries to think through one. Basically think of the t zero, zero, eight t s sort of a chicken and egg. On a superhighway. So t zero and overstock owns eighty percent of it. Is built a brand new interstate from San? Francisco, to New York. Brand new. And there's nothing along the side of it. There's no buildings no hotels. No restaurants are three cars on right now. There's The t zero token. There's the Saint Regis of Aspen token, which is our hotel real estate property that just traded there, and they have the overstocked preferred on there. So they have three items and let's call those the eggs. Now, the chickens, the chickens are the customers who can go in trade on site. And Right now, t zero is in the process of. Becoming a broker dealer and I think that approval is at hand. I think that's shortly as in days. It's easy to use. It's easy to sign up for. But eventually. Morgan Stanley's going to be on it and Merrill Lynch is GonNa be on it and each rate's GonNa be on it and I'm thinking Robin Hood will be on it and Everyone will be on this thing. So when the customer, the investor has easy access to the token exchange. It. Is Up to the investment banks who right now we're doing nothing. To start coming up with items, securitising assets to be put on the exchange and I kid around with people at Piper or Wedbush or Needham said right now what the hell doesn't investment banker at Piper Jaffrey do all day other than nothing. All these investment bankers, it all these firms are sitting around looking at their naval doing nothing. So they can easily go out and start token ising the empire. State building. The Great Wall of China. the Golden Gate Bridge Yosemite anything that generates revenue that has an asset. As long as that asset pays out a portion of the revenue in the form of a dividend, it's. It's secure ties bowls flash token -able. And I think the market for this, it is going to be huge. And as I say, the said deflect in time I have no problem with Davide trader whatever that guy is a no issue with him whatsoever. But Joe six pack in the person at home who wants to trade stocks would love more than two trade various forms of assets. and. Let me just just give you one example. So I go to guys Piper and I said why can't Piper Jaffray or Wedbush or whoever else go to the NFL player Association and Start Tokenism Pro Athletes First Round draft picks you can token is trevor warrants in College Yuka token is Tom Brady. You can token is mahomes and there's a stand you have the speculative trading of is he gonNA get a new contract? IS HE GONNA win the Super Bowl. I mean imagine if you bought the Michael Jordan token when he was drafted out of north, Carolina and there's GonNa be hits unnecess- in there is going to be winners or losers, but the great thing with this with their token system. Is Everyone. If you buy a token, it's yours. It's not like a stock were the thing gets borrowed against margin re located out in. A hundred and ten million shares out in their four hundred million in the in flow trading around now this is one token. Kerr one offering. And it's same day settlement. And everyone knows were the token said and you have a regular market in this teaser market is irregular market in end I think. Token Izing of securities again, whether it's debt individuals, movie library. Song Library Sports Figures Real Estate Assets Kanye West could Kardashians run be teams, soccer teams, soccer players mean instead of Golden State Warriors, borrowing money to build a new arena which no one uses because of covid they could have token is they could raise money from the public as everyone would love to own a piece of the Green Bay packers but Boston Red Sox, the San Francisco giants, the Oakland Raiders and I think the market for this in the next. Three months to three years is going to absolutely explode absolutely explode agreeable. It's one of the biggest things I've seen it. So obvious particularly the world where we live with record high price valuations for equities and all of this kind of stuff. Right. But once you start tokens, the things that people want to own as you say sports stars, you can even token is supercars you can talk. Anything. Strange I mean, the world I'm going to is like, why should Exxon exist it should have like numerous tokens revenue streams one for it's real estate one for its. Slow one for its. Ecology business some for the upstream downstream you don't need corporation longer. Well you're not only you don't need a corporation the. Other than tragically hundred and eighty thousand American dying because of the virus in guy knows where the numbers go and people worldwide what the virus in what this has taught. Everyone is what you need in what you don't need. What what you need in what you don't in people have not been really thinking everyone's acting. And in a before I got like a real job, I used to countered boys' overnight camp, which was my favorite job ever in the camp director Bob. Mercer WHO's greatest man I've ever known. He always told me because he gave me the the weirdest kids. He always said one times or crazy. Don't just do something stand there because what you initially do is always the wrong thing if you stop and you look in, you see what's going on. You can then try to assess figure out the problem with a clear head in a clear mind, which is something I try I've tried to do in this time of covert is everyone's acting everyone's reacting everyone's reacting very few are sitting. There in really trying to think really trying to think what the next way is and I think the next wave as you said, is GonNa, be Tokens Ation because there's a lot of things people don't need in. It's not necessarily be sleazy for people to raise money in various ways and not have stock and have SEC filings and have conference calls in worrying about Wall Street analysts if I'm Patrick mahomes ago and token is myself. Agreed to pay ten percent of my future earnings in the form of dividend. Then a Navy Piper Jaffray wedbush gives me fifty million dollars up front because I just signed a five hundred million dollar contract with the chiefs. And the bed is what is he signed with Nike or General Mills or a beer company or what is next contract worth? And and the individual can understand that and as Fleckenstein said. It's very pure. You don't have to worry about earnings knitted Galatian. Conference call coming with a quarter that's better than or worse than expected. You can think you can token is Mount Rushmore and say our people are going to go and visit it or not. Visit Guy knows the government needs money God knows the deficits are huge God knows they pay you know GonNa raise trillions and trillions to to help people out which I totally get. But why not token I some of those assets to people who on a piece of Mount Rushmore. Frank and seem another interesting thing here in the cabins because a lot of the documentation, the legal work hand over here. So the first tokens were done here and stuff. So all the lawyers. alands pretty aware of this. One of the guys in the property business hey, came to me came in and guys said I'm thinking token is in real estate. I said why not? He said because we're getting a problem with the rich poor divide that the normal canyons can't afford the beachfront. And that's making the rich rich and the poor don't participate. He said scientists token is it. So anybody can never share. We can stick the local pension plans like Chris that solves a huge problem. It's house a huge problem. I'll get into how amish. Playing this and again what I do for myself, you know everyone's on their own, do your own work and figure out for yourself how implying it but if I'm right And this does turn in. To the kind of of deal I, think you know these these ways on planning that are gonNA be just beyond Grand Slams? It may it may not work but on the on the t zero exchange, there's something called the t zero token, which is t zero p where you get a percentage of their net their net. Revenue in term in the form of a dividend. So if this goes an six months ago, there was one. Product on this, which was the teaser token. Now, there's The t zero token in the overstock preferred not getting the bad in others burs the Aspen. Property as well. Now, if this thing begins to multiply and more things come on the platform, which I think is going to happen and is at hand. And customers port to this thing if I think it will be beyond the nuclear rocket ship. So I own tease. E.. R. O. P. They traded about six fifty. I love him I own my son owns them. I'm also overstock stock trades at ninety. And, they issued A. Preferred, that dividend out this this thing called Tko. Which gives you one share of overstock. It's worth one shore stock plus a dividend. Plus anything else they wished to do. And this with overstock I think trading roughly ninety this thing trades roughly sixty. So. You're buying overstocked it thirty point discount. Why is that? Well, because it's on a new exchange, it also trades fidelity in the pinks. The liquidity is not great right now I think that's going to improve with time. And there's no one talking about it. I'M NOT GONNA say it's orphan security because I think this comes to life. But if you're an investor why pay nine before overstock when you have the same rights, you can get at sixty. and. Reason I think this security is especially interesting is it's a digital security. It's the first one of its kind office stock. And I think would be a huge success. I think it's very interesting. And we're in a monkey see monkey do environment. Aka the specs. And it used to be packs were dirty word. I think the lowest TKO dividend. Which is essentially one share overstock plus plus. is going to be the start of a very big wave. And I think either that it catches up to overstock and Orson Pat surpasses it were steps will probably be taken by over stock to make that happen. So I like bad I like that a lot and then there's finally if you need to trade stocks and. Holding things for the longer term like Os Tko is not for you. I just like plan whole base overstock which has an enormous amount of optionality to it. But for now. I on the exchanges, the teaser which I own in the Os Tko which I am. Now, the cat. Now the caveat is houses all are gonNA work, and how can they pull this off I think on this plugged into overstock his anybody in I never heard as much of an inkling of their GSA contract with the government. They just one day announced it. said it's a six billion dollar. Deal it then Amazon Thermo Fisher six billion just on your one vertical. Make that very clear just on their one vertical. So, why can't overstock be in other verticals other than home furnishings? Why can't they being medical supplies? Why can't they do the same thing in industrial supplies? Why can't they do the same thing in office furniture? And their system is more comparable to shop affi- than it is to wayfair because you can do anything on that. This is not your grandfather's overstock on the ECOMMERCE side plus you get the blockchain assets that we talked briefly about. But. Knowing Johnson the way I I know him. He's GONNA partner up with people to make things happen. He's GonNa there. They know what their core competency is in a know what it's not. And I think this concept of sitting on powerball tickets. Is Huge. and. It wouldn't surprise me one day that t zero partners with a Robin Hood or partners with a citadel or partners with an alternative Wall Street firm where they say, Hey, Brian, we have the customers who will want to trade this kind of thing. We have the back office to make this work. Right. Let's let's by this platform or. On this platform. The people spoke to yesterday was the guy runs fidelity digital assets they're building out huge business. And I was talking to him about Tokens. He's like, yeah to- together it's coming. See this. This is where it's GonNa go in the overstock has patents up down and sideways, but I'm not naive enough to say they're the only game in town right now they are the only game in town and I think they have ninety percent of the all trading maybe higher there will be others at it but to me, it's like buying a six-month-old horse and if the horse makes it to the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby. I'm up twenty times my money on that six-month-old horse at Lake Forget, forget winning the Kentucky Derby with is totally within the realm of possibility or running well in the Kentucky Derby. But this is what I'm talking about in terms of how I try to find things or see things that can literally get Gargantuan Leigh Bit. Inner in there's there's risks with everything else but I'm comfortable enough in base overstock. Base overstock yet alone OS TKO which I is thirty point discount, which is just to me the best the best trade on the board right now in terms of buying something. But if any one of these lottery tickets especially the powerball ticket hits. Though. Planned interview for generations and and I. Have Enough trolls out there who can't stand me And if it doesn't work, they'll be planted for generations on what the best but I believe in my process I believe in my thought. The risk reward makes it worth taking and that's the point the upside so much larger than the downsides should. The risk award is is not only beyond insane. What you and I do know is it becomes a monkey see monkey do business, and when something catches on whether it's zoom today right or or you know the tasks lar- whatever phenomenon is there's no end in sight on where things can go in and where I was talking with Fleckenstein, which I think is important for your viewers to know because it's a sophisticated bunch I liken this to win the P. C. First came out. When I was a younger guy working at the Oregon trucks pc first came out it was a green monochrome screen. And, there are a few programs at worked on loaders one, two, three, maybe wordperfect maybe something like that but as things got going. You could buy shrink wrapped all this or adobe software. Had Software. Or Your Business Land there wasn't Internet back. Then you would literally go to a software store and buy box a shrink wrapped box of software for five hundred dollars on a five and a quarter inch floppy disk and plugged into your computer than it was a three and a half inch disk than it was a CD. Then it was a DVD. Now it saps. So what we're talking about with token ization while we're talking about with blockchain voting, what we're talking about all this other stuff is literally one point zero. Maybe, a year, it'll be one point, one, seven as t zero gets broker dealer as they partner up with people as more things get on the platform but you're literally right there and when people say it's pie in the sky. Hell Drexel Burnham in junk bonds used to be tying sky and although drexel doesn't exist anymore the concept of junk bonds is huge and when Drexel first came out with junk bonds everyone pooh-poohed pooh-poohed pooh-poohed it. They say this is garbage. Now it's it's standard fare when people came out with S-. Packs years ago everyone thought it was just garbage now everyone wants to do a spock and I'm I do not lack confidence in my ability, and I do not lack confidence in my train of thought. Someone somehow somewhere in the very near future is going to make this token ization. Concept. Work, and and Zeros right there I. Mean they are. They are right there. They blow it shame on them, but they are right there right now. Amazing. So listen I want to go onto the other thing which is the complete opposite. So he was talking about the future of the world and then the other thing you were involved in of notices camping world. What's that all about? I Love I love new this camping world I just I just love it and my pal Dave Abrams. And he owns some the raiders. So we're pals for a number of reasons. My son and I are out in Boston San, collective, soul about a year ago as intrigued with camping world because he owns a lot of stock. And we started talking about it in he explains to me what a great business it is because I thought they just simply sold RV's. And it's an enormous wrong and he and he said where they make their money, it's literally the Razor Razor Blade. Is They can basically sell the RV at not much margin, but they may not service they cannot insurance they make it on the club the lifetime value of their customer is huge. So the stock was about ten and then went to seventeen, and then Kobe went down to about four or five. And everyone was saying they're going to go broke. They're going to go broke worried about the consumer and I said, no, the guy, run it a felony Marcus Limo and I don't watch I. Didn't know he was a TV guy on. CNBC. I I noticed he was buying a ton of stock. He bought like two hundred, thousand sheriff's between six and ten in the stock was five. So I called them up and I just said people think you're going broke. He goes we're not going BRO, we have plenty liquidity. We have too much dad but when things get better that'll work itself out. But he said, let me tell you his voice was literally like cracking says, this is what I have right now this is all GonNa do camping is in my blood on completely focused this that and the other and I bought a bunch of stock and I was on. Grants podcast knows talking camping world I think the thing was five in the other day hit forty. Now let's just say thirty. And the stock selloff a bit because in his last quarter. Wall. Street was looking for them to make fifty cents. And he printed a buck fifty. and. They were looking for cash flow I. Think of forty, five million. and His. Number was. North at two hundred, it was just a crazy good number. And I tweeted out that. All of my ears which have way too many. Have never seen a company, earn in, A. Quarter. What Wall Street thought they were supposed to earn next year. Next year importer. So I think numbers are way too low. I just printed this out Marcus since August tenth his another eighty seven thousand shares in the open market and he's paid three million dollars for that stock. So even though the stocks gone from five to thirty, he still buying right here. I think numbers are way too low, and the crazy thing is you know the street has its head up. It's ass in especially this guy J. P. Morgan he has stock rated hold. He's been fighting this thing all the way up it's really like a cell. And I looked at his model the other day. and His share counters wrong. He's using a hundred and forty million shares in this model, and there's only eighty nine out. and. He says, the stocks fairly valued at thirty will if you use the right share count dumb ass eighty, nine, right you have a value of forty eight. So his math is so far off in his spreadsheet, he's using a thirty dollar number for started. When in fact, it should be forty eight in. It's just an outright embarrassment. But the sexy part of the camping world story with his Razor Razor Blade I think is on the com-. And I don't know anything. But SAPPHO OF PA research put out something the other day. And he said he thinks camping world is going to get into the AIRBNB for RV business. And and given how they make various forms of money on their touch points being insurance service, the club they have two point one million. Members of their auto club good Sam. They have five point four, million unique. People who've been to their website and or shop their stores. So. If Marcus goes in creates this airbnb for vs in it's fragmented business. You make very basic assumptions here in this guy can make a million dollars a day. Just just like that, he already has the customers. He already has the infrastructure. He already has the source in what would be let's easier than if you. And Your Pals WanNa go on vacation of the grand. Canyon he hit camping world or whatever the AIRBNB. Part camping world is you do a couple clicks you picked this thing up. At a luxury returned, he makes money on cleaning. It makes money on servicing. It makes money on the clock makes a fee on the putting my RV in the pool. It's just another way of this guy making money. And he is so driven right now, I can just see him literally chew and broken glass because he doesn't pay himself. Any money doesn't pay himself salary. He owns thirty seven percent of the stock in for him to be buying three million dollars of money. He's not even earning because he's not making salary to buy more stock here. I think something's up. So they have a analyst day September fifteenth. Which is two weeks I think from today. And I think he's GonNa come out swinging I. think numbers are too low thinker too low this quarter this year next year leverage isn't a problems pay down debt I mean he's going to do I think four, fifty need but this year five, hundred plus next year and it's a it's a great business. He's a great operator in a lack of a lot a lot of us. A. Little sense as well in this kind of post coporate world. But you said before before we jumped on the cool. He said you use an ave you around why would you know Ed being being ave? Is. Crazy the crazy thing is people who look down their nose at camping or the exact same people who never ever done it. And people say just because you drive around fancy our be two of them. But when I used to work in the summer that boys camp. I used to take thirteen year olds backpacking in the porcupine mountains of Michigan. This is true s store. So I said this to the game twitter first day out three miles in. We pat three miles in and I tell the kids because I'm trying to teach them. Put the Food Thai food up in in the bags tied together and lifted into the tree. So people and bears and people like that don't get. First night, they didn't do it raccoons and whoever else got in our food, all our food's gone. All, our foods gone first night of a five day trip in the woods. Mehan. Another guy with a bunch of thirteen year olds and you know what I'll never forget it I to camp whether it's an RV. A had I could sleep under a bridge if I had to. But people who look down on their knows it camping. It's going to be a long time till I. WanNa get on a plane and go visit my mother-in-law Spain or Italy or Greece in you know it's just the way the world is because there's so much misinformation out there about the pandemic or coming back I just don't WanNa fuck by I. Don't want to get this thing I don't want to give it to my hire some I don't want to give it to anybody right so at a minimum. Until people figure it out and that's just not a vaccine what you see is what you're going to get things may get better on the margin but I read somewhere on either in San Francisco the other day this great great great place that I like a lot they're closing for takeout in pick up because they said is hard as we work and as much as we want to do it until we get back to full capacity inside were not going to reopen. Well, California that's going to happen on the fifth of never. So folks what you see in my mind is what you're going to get. And is big as camping was this year I think kids can be bigger next year because they were constrained. By their only so many units out camping world. All in now is valued at three billion dollars and they do five billion in sales and their margins are twice that of the auto dealers in things it less than ten times next year's number. So with with Marcus buying stock. So if you're with me as I always say. Knock on wood. I. Love It I. Really. Want this? No capitalist 'cause you're Catholic. PERSON IF I if there's no AIRBNB I hope Marcus listens to this and does airbnb in the spring of next year. But but when I do think will happen is eventually eventually stocks catch up to their business right when overstock announced the GSA contract, the stock was thirty. It's now let's just call it ninety because they had a rip roaring quarter quarter was knock your socks off their businesses through the roof analysts are starting to figure it out and people look at their number overstocked me let's say ninety cents one overstocked could theoretically right from operations make three. To four dollars this year. Now, if they make three or four dollars, someone could say what were people thinking tender three or four whatever in the stock should never there it should never have traded their and ice amid camping world shouldn't be trading here because all I know if Marcus Lamotta Psalms thirty seven percent and is buying three million dollars worth of stock here. He made just say why why am I public I can easily be private and bring this thing out later. Why don't why don't we go private guys at forty five or fifty? He obviously likes it at thirty three obviously had the any. But stack this year at four, six, Ten, twenty, one, thirty, four, and twenty nine. So. Obviously, he likes what's going on in this world of insider selling all his stuff going on ATM's me insider selling ratio is huge right? This guy is buying an emmy he's bought his stock August Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth Fortieth. Seventeenth. Eighteenth Nineteenth Twentieth Twenty Four Twenty Fifth Twenty, seven, twenty thirtieth. seriously. I mean this is this is this is where he's bought. So. I mean if you were buying real vision stock every day and you were buying a year, we're going you're buying it. Now I'm saying this guy row will see something other people don't. There's reasons to sell stock lotteries insider a stock divorce state planning kids to school stopped to high committing fraud whatever there's only one reason to buy stock, and that's because I think it's GonNa go up. So. There's a lot of things out there. It's cheap he's doing well, he gets no respect. JP Morgan can figure out what fucking share account to us. If they used the rideshare count, it's the cheapest stock me Ryan Brakeman. When this comes out, I will send it to get off your ass in at least use the right numbers Mrs Embarrassing We guys on. Seeking. Alpha use use the right numbers P. Morgan. CanNot get the share count right on camping world and if he got it right, it's the cheapest his in his universe. And this is two thousand twenty we're talking I, mean this is not like back when I started this in the Stone Age where you had to go to the library, get an sap care she or value line I mean the error here is significant. So for all those reasons for all those reasons in the disrespect shown Marcus. I just think you know the next time we do this. This is GonNa, be this thing could be the greatest Sabir. So I'm really only long to situations campingworld and overstock overstock Oh teaser, and I'm not interested in really fucking around with anything else and and when people say. Say on twitter has spent four hours each day on over stock and they said, what do you do? Well, wait and see what I do and wait and see what comes from this thing and I'll update that I spent four hours on overstock before nine am Pacific Time. Because if if I am or others can pull off this these blockchain things or partners on t zero or partners on the exchange. Or real firms porting this thing. Again. You'll be People will be playing this for their grandkids you know, and that's what I do I. I view myself as an activist with our firm without filing thirteen days without blowing my own horn blow it enough on twitter. But these these situations are dynamic and they're not for the faint of heart main camping world is more for the faint of heart than the overstock mean if you're GonNa buy something put away my best shots the T. up but this this camping world for what it is is really special really special. So if you don't mind if you can give us an also an update arch-nemesis, my medics where where you are with that because that's been a huge ongoing saga for you and it's been exhausting where, where, where is that now? Glad. You brought that one up. Stories. It's On I mean it lasts track out when grant did is story on my medics with me which I really enjoy doing with him and he has the my mets license plate. He said I really resonated with me goes why don't you just cover your short and just fight the fight without being short so they don't say you're sure that you know you just want it to go down to make money. And I was thinking you know grant you have a point there. So I covered like ninety eight point, nine percent of it because I can't stand I'll know what my life would be like if I'm not short my medics some short this much my medics. So they can't accuse me of one to put him out of business for financial. Gain. So then the second I said, I've covered medics with the of this much. Any other the troll's GonNa take he's given up on the story. It's like, No, you idiots I'm just trying to write yet. I'm criticized with their some criticize that I'm just trying to like play it straight. So where are we? They have new management new management doesn't have a clue. I sent them emails. The crimes are still going on the fraud is still going on. A former employee I guess sends me this gift? Card. Right here folks this is not a this is real. Says American Express, my medics gift cards. It says congratulations might. Medics Group Inc.. This these are the cards used to pay off doctors. These are the cards it is still going on. A read you in your viewers something. From something that was said to me I assume this is GonNa be a lawsuit or something. And it says kickback scheme right I've always alleged there were kickbacks in that clown of Bloomberg. Joe Nocera who can never get anything right said I was making it up. I'm going to change the names to protect the innocent. Or guilty. Dr X. formed to implemented a kickback scheme. In order to increase his revenue from Medicare and Medicaid in early two, thousand, nineteen. He set up a company called Blank Consulting Inc encounter formula listed its address at blank. This address belongs to another company. A business own by Dr Access Medical Assistant. Assistant Blank. Dr X. Hidden ownership in blank I, keeping his name off the corporations formation documents, instead naming his receptionist as the CEO CFO Secretary and sold director. Ms Blank was a straw man. We believe the company was in fact Shell owned and operated by. X. For the purpose of receiving kickbacks in the form of commissions. Rather than purchasing tissue from blank a direct employee of my medics. Dr Setup Blank as a sham company to be independent agent were turned commissions on all Tissue Dr X. purchased from my medics. It is believed actor XS use of blank as an independent agent greatly increased his revenue from use of my medics tissue. assume blank kickback all commissions to Dr Acts. Kickback scheme was put into place Dr X. Drastically increase the amount of tissue he purchased from my medics and drastically increased his use of tissue at his office into hospitals. With blank no longer in charge of Dr XS account. Manager Blank, original sales manager became Dr XS contact at my medics blank was responsible for tagging tissue. Implanted, by Dr, axe these hospitals sometimes tagging tissue multiple times, which is a violation of FDA good tissue management. This elaborate tissue tagging scheme also kept unsuspecting hospitals in the dark as they were still purchasing from my medics. In this tissue tagging scheme at the back end was designed to avoid detection by the hospitals. It gets into various kickbacks in ripping off for Medicaid in this crap began in February of two thousand nineteen. So. For everyone including that s had Joe Nocera. Right who accuses me of saying the biggest fraud is the sellers on my mets. You're a lying sack of crap Joe, because this thing is a criminal operation up down and sideways the guys that medics no. This they knowing people can be brought in to prove it right in a needs to be stopped once and for all. Why Things stop now. Why is it? I'd this is what I don't get. Right. There's noise that somebody to do something about it. What is it good stones? The cut here's the crazy part and I ran this by my lawyer right before we got on here, they have a cooperation agreement with the DOJ. I am one hundred percent sure that the guys in my medics have this they have this they know what's going on. They know what's going on with the gift cards they know who the bad actors are and companies that are involved in crime, right? That's their core competency of their business and they know about this, they know about this and in this era of crime pain. Is. Great great great that Parker Pizza been indicted in one of these days is going to stand trial and hopefully get his ass thrown in jail. And you know we foyt. The FBI everyone knows about the FBI visit at the hands of Pete in Isaacson before the FBI. They tell us in their response. Stuff exists in all exists in all exists right and we'll get it to you. Between. Four months and four years. That's that's that's their aunts. And my attorney said is still be dead in four years and whoever perpetrated this crap at the FBI be well gone for years. They're sure not gonNA take for months. So I've sued right? We've sued the FBI and j just a very simple foreground were entitled to see what went down. I would think the public would wanNA know what went down it's either something really bad or something. Yeah. We didn't like this that or the other. So we sent some guys they are in told him to quit tweeting where they'll be consequences because the FBI has nothing better. In the crazy thing is. The government is fighting me on this. I mean it's it's not. It's not like care. We see your soup to good idea. Here's the stuff now goes ground. Now. It's like we have to make motions in federal court to get this foia stuff to come out. And in my nine of mines, if there was nothing there, they were just releasing. How much big do you think this is than just my Mex 'cause it sounds like it's something much bigger and that's why you're hitting such. I think it's huge and what people don't understand. In this really important. This is really important with what's going on in this world, right? I'm sixty. I take care of a thirty, three year old guy who's disabled love my wife loved my life. Right if I don't push back on this, this can happen to any skeptic out there. They can send people by Your House to tell you to shut up, they can corner wife in a grocery store they can block in a car they can do all sorts of stuff. Someone has to draw the line somewhere somewhere. Right all this is doing is costing me money, right? I'm the stock goes to zero I sure don't make enough to cover my legal fees from this thing, but the insane part is. People in the Senate or Congress or others should say what the fuck is going on in this world where a bribe senator from Georgia from a criminal shuts up a skeptic through the use of the FBI. I'm no fan of orange man trump i. am no fan of his whatsoever but he is definitely on to something with the FBI and I'm not one to cross swords with the government but someone needs to do something or this crap just gets out of hand and then when it happens you. Or someone else or another skeptic or they find someone dead or a whistle blower or what have you everyone will say, how did the world come to this? It came to this because no one ever push back against the man right in Ivan ask for this fucking bullshit but they brought the bullshit to me and I'm going to sit there and say, Hey, right. If, the thing I do I gotta push back against it now now, maybe they're in tight some federal judge in Oakland end the judge will this out or delayed or do whatever. But at least I gotta try it least I've gotta try to figure out what comes in and I think it's bigger than big I think cms with my medics take I think these. Guys are putting all this bullshit into vets, which is bad in it's an it's crime for profit right in and I told grant it's the last thing. It was my last deal. Everyone says kid I'm not kidding I'm serious can be I mean if you think you can go and take down companies and exposing this other. Look look at what got all those guys wildcard I mean he It got those guys I was involved in it and I think I helped cause but. They've ruined a lot a lot of people's lives. Just by speaking out in this is a real visions about this is what various podcasts are about. This is about what grant Fleckenstein or doing and and. I'm a believer in at least speaking out. or standing up if you can't stand up to this, what the hell are you going to stand up for? Right I mean if you can't stand up for criminals bullying guys who exposes bullshit around what are you going to stand up for people beating up women, people shooting guys on the streets I mean. and. I. I mean. It's your it's your patch right? This is the thing you've grown up, and this is why you were. Living and you want to clean up your patch because. I. Know that my stage alive I. can make a tiny bit of difference in a very small segment of the world right. But at least if I can prevail here and we can see what happened at least it will discourage some going forward to do this shed and say we don't WanNA end up like that guy. Parker. PETITES can get his ask thrown in the can for all the Shitty did and I'm thrilled about it did I have a hand to planet absolutely thrilled about it absolutely. Now I WANNA see the perpetrators who go and rip off cms rip off patients inject this crap. You know bribes, kickbacks, word I want to see these guys brought to justice I really do and and maybe a what happened right but I'll do my best to it and I have no providence center from it none now at providence from what we're stop I profit and senator from Tko I. Got Profit in San from T P and Providence Center from camping world right but that's just toweling what I believe to be. True. Using, facts and analysis this my medics thing hits home in this my medic centimeters. and. When someone sends me a Gift Card right this isn't like a picture of wine and this isn't a generic gift card. It says, right can you? Can you read it? Word says, Rach relations my medics group right now what what company right has American Express is not printing up a off base right? I mean there's gotTa Real Vision doesn't go to American Express and say, Hey, I'd like ten real vision Merry Christmas cards right? It's not like you know they're Santa in this motif. Reagan? Very easy to get immune. This is a five hundred dollar denomination. It's very easy to give a shoebox of these two doctors who were millions of dollars of your worthless product Jim it's not declarable. Yeah. I. Mean there's there's all sorts of stuff with this. Right is not declarable. It's here you. Tax evasion and everything else. But. Now I. Always, come this morning and I had a clear mind I'm a little agitated with this I met this this. Thing just really just really like Jacksonville some, but look. We're all proud of what you've done. Thank you. It makes a big difference to everybody and that's why he got such a huge following is because people are so inspired. By what you've done why you've done it? Now, I got lovers and I got haters. But you know the one thing is in you know people uses word too much held the key Jeffey this shit like Fox up your mind ribbit it really does and. Get help and you get counseling in this than the other. But you know I was never a paranoid person. Never. Apparently person but after you know you get the FBI showing up in in and you get some the wildcard stores. Guys are out to get you I. mean because the money is so big with these guys it's so big and it's just an organized crime that we'll see see that's that's that's just it and and the people who depend on me I'd rather be alive coward than a dead hero and I. I need to get killed over this shed. Sure would be refreshing to get to the end so I can you know? I'm I'm very close to get just saying like I'm done for now. So I'M GONNA write this book, but I need I, need the proper ending I need the. I can't have it. You know dot dot dot. com You. Know, I have to see it through. It's like you know with these overstocked guys. I have to see it through. There was so much. Hey, dished out my way on this overstock I have to burn all these guys once and for all I burn them pretty bad right now but I wanna see this thing become what I think it can be it's important in unlike This is my third year overstock I mean I've been long to sing three eggs right through the people. In of Mile don't hang around for three years. It's important to me to see things through to porn for me too. I got Bill Maher knows ass in Canada. At Guy who stops with your report with the Canadian money launderer he's Gone Solloway Gone Mark, Thompson's gone parked petites, GonNa go to jail I mean. It's important to see these things through. A final question female 'cause people. People hear this and you've written overstock up and down. How do you size a position like that? Because this is a question because everyone goes well, I don't know how to do that because I talk about long-term trades and most people don't get what long-term trains are. I've been long some great ones in my day I've been long some duds. You know. Nolan Ryan says greatest picture of all time. The majors all time in wins losses home runs given up. All the good and all the backs high seen it all. Haya size it it gets very hard. You know you sell too early but then they say bulls bears pigs. So you know if I own overstock at three in the stocks ninety if I sold some along the way. Yeah. I rent calls along the way now but I'm long on long right now. For more Os Tko. Then, hours ever long in overstock ever an any. You, like to be trade around a position a bit, and so if it goes up a lot, we'll connect I'm not trading around Tko. I've sold some I've sold some overstock at various levels and written calls on overstock at various levels fund os Tko purchases because I think oh, as t kale is really worth more than T K it's worth more than enough I combined into thirty point discount. It's bending at the waist and picking up money and if people don't like it because it doesn't trade I mean hey. The one store Alan lead people with his back when David Rocker and I got along and work together. We were short something called candidate will wind and it traded on the Amex the American Stock Exchange. Illiquid is fuck pardoned use the language, but it was liquid and we were short because wine cooler thirty recover the stock at eleven. The Guy who liked it at fidelity gets fired. Got Elected Harris Bank Neil Miller gets fired. We get a call one day in the stocks trading at five from a broker said, there's two point seven million shares of candidate will wind for sale. In this things trained four thousand shares day. And and we're we're long and I go like we're GONNA die. So I call up the guy who founded Marvin Sands. And I said Harris these guys have two point seven, million shares for sale. I think Neil Miller got fired in they're just selling the stock. He goes who's the broker said CANTOR FITZGERALD He goes. I'll buy them all and I, said, really. Goes Yeah I said. No, we want some too. So, so they traded this thing three and a quarter we bought. God. Knows what became like eleven percent holders my son who was just born he bought some put every penny. He had in this thing. He bought some couple pals in Marvin Sands bought the rest. He bought the rest I think there was early eighty eight. Early Eighty eight something like that and. The stocks, it's now constellation brands. The time had a market cap of one, hundred, million with debt and I think now it's like sixteen billion. And and. We sold the stock. The three dollar stock we sold somewhere between forty and seventy and I think the stock is now I mean I could have long State of Montana Idaho Utah North Dakota power kept the stock. So high you do it. I. Don't know you don't WanNa be greedy. You've gotTA watch taxes you. WanNa. Try to go long term. I was restricted in overstocked for wild because I was working on something on it. It didn't come to pass. I'm not restricted any name right now everything I've told you is. In the public domain, just my opinion. But but I think it's it's I think these things are going to be some I love Tko t zero and camping world I. Love Him I. Just I. Just I. Think they're great. I really didn't I. Love It. I. Love. The idea is a love how much work you put into them and how much you completely own your idea. All right and it's brilliant because so few people do and it's just an honor to talk to you about stuff on us. It's amazing. You're you're you're a good man I'm a huge fan. I think you're doing great i. mean I think I. Think you're doing great. grant split but it's better for both of you guys. I think I think you both just to our wonderful you you guys crack me up when he used to do your ended the year thing I think there's there's something there has to be I just want to put this out there for people and maybe smarter folks in I'll come up with something. There has got to be something on the network. That runs against CNBC whether it's online stock tickers going on the bottom whether two guys in on online saying where people get where you're constantly playing your contact and content and not marken hours, but there has to be something. Out there that thanking people can do and watch other than the cartoon network. The only problem is is doing that kind of live news tens people just talk bullshit. Shield. so much prefer doing stuff like this, but there's a way of streaming this and having other stuff I get it but literally. Cartoon our I can't watch the cartoon network because it's such a cartoon show but I have I, have great respect you and what you've done. Your Team I love your stuff and and. I'm a huge fan and I'll help you any way I can. and. We're huge fan of you and I am personally as well. If I said anything that offended anyone using bad language I apologize I tried to tone. Tom. I always swear habitual swear. Okay. Thank you. My friend. Take can't thanks ever so much and I'll see you again soon. Yeah. Look forward to it.

Overstock Patrick mahomes Johnson Johnson twitter government Fleckenstein Marcus fraud GSA airbnb Amazon Joe Nocera Internet Hedge Fund FBI Robin Hood partner mets Joe Kobe
Gene Munster Founder of Loup Ventures Talks Voice SEO, Smart Speaker Sales, and Apple - Voicebot Podcast Ep 113

The Voicebot Podcast

1:02:21 hr | 1 year ago

Gene Munster Founder of Loup Ventures Talks Voice SEO, Smart Speaker Sales, and Apple - Voicebot Podcast Ep 113

"This episode one thirteen of the forest by podcast this week's cast gene munster managing partner of lou ventures. We talked voice assistant. I q global smart speaker sales and where funding going invoice voiced by nation. This is brett casella l. A. hosted the voice by podcast. Today's guest is from the research investment community gene munster offers a different take on the rise of voice assistance consumer adoption and how venture venture capital of us. This space bullet starwood this. Did you know that ninety percent of people who try to track their meals with the mail tracking app like my fitness pal for example they give up within the first week part of the problem is that entering food information with a touch based user interface like a mobile app is simply a bad user experience. This is a classic example voice in natural language can help as many of you heard me say many times before voices exceptional at complex input and simple output so the seems like a natural fit for voice for example. I salmon green beans a potato in water for dinner. Last night. I can see that <hes> and fewer than four seconds however it would take me many seconds typing with thumb swiping selecting if i was in a mobile app however there's been an issue with bringing voice to this problem in the past. There hasn't been a solution particularly a natural language understanding solution specifically designed for voice however there's a startup recently out of stealth. That's been working on this problem for a year. They have two million utterances from for twenty thousand real users. The company's name is entree. You can find a bit entree dot. AI if you're looking to create a voice experience related food definitely take a look. You can follow them on twitter at app food. API at food API like application programming interface food API and if you're looking to create a better user experience or just check out their demo my which is really interesting. You can type in a bunch of different things. It'll show you exactly the information terms calorie cow protein all the other macronutrients that you're trying branding track so if you want to check that out look at their. NFL you could entree dot AI forward slash voice bob so entree e. n. t. r. e. e. dot force last voice bot if you've got an entree dot. AI foresight voiced by you'll be able to check out their view thanks to chess weeding and the entire hire entree team for supporting voiced by podcast and enabling us to bring you great interviews like this week's guest jean monster is the managing partner lew ventures a venture sure capital fund focused on early stage investing in what they call frontier tack and voice. My friends is frontier tack from a venture capitalist perspective munster munster co-founded loop after twenty one years research analyst at piper jaffrey recovered familiar names such as amazon apple facebook google during his career he's name named top stock picker from forbes best on the street from the wall street journal and was widely fouled for his apple coverage in particular gene holds a bachelor's degree in finance and entrepreneurship herships for the university of saint thomas at luke gene rights nearly daily on a variety of topics and often these stories relate to voice now to this. Week's interviewed okay voice by listeners. I'm happy to be here once again again to share with you a conversation with someone who's really knows. This industry is actually making an impact. I gene munster managing partner. Lew ventures cheers welcome to the voice by podcast great demeanor all right well. I'm thrilled to have you. We've talked about this for a while. Having you on hasn't worked out in the past but perfect timing wing. You just have some new news around your voice assistant. IQ you just did a forecast smart speakers. We will get to all of that <hes> but i think i what we should start with. Is you broke away from piper jaffray. Just a couple years ago found loop correct. I did yeah it was a longtime sell side analysts and covering kendall large-cap tech names and decided with the team that had been with for or worked with for ten years research same research team to found loop ventures in so we are a small first time fund twenty five million dollar fund focusing on disruptive technology and were two and a half years into do it and <hes> having a lot of fun at researching and invest in the future. How many investments have you made. Since you founded loop. We have made twenty seven. Kevin investments comes out to about one a month. What am i okay so average. Check sizes half a million pretty close to that three hundred thousand thirty thousand okay so so early stage you're looking at it seed stage or participating in maybe sunday rounds yeah see weaving will go precede but that's evacuate those that earlier stage <hes> view. We have a really a hard line after a round unlikely participate there but <unk> definitely focusing on those earlier companies got it okay so you entrepreneurs listening to the voice podcast this week <hes>. That's one of the things you need to know it. Others certain people work early stage certain people work late stage always know that before you contact the BBC because most of them are pretty forthcoming about that. That's good for everybody to know so. Thanks for sharing that so. I'm interested a little bit on your time as an analyst. I want to get into more what you're doing now but if you think about that time when you were a financial anton analyst did that give you any particular insights that you thought or that led us thinking around these disruptive technologies in particular lawyer insights you had around the rise of voice in invoice. AI platform there there was one in a recall the when apple had announced siri integration for the first time i believe it was two thousand eleven or two thousand twelve and was at that event in went up and was talking into the team had a there was just making the announcement sonnet team no longer with apple but the <hes> i i heard of siri as a startup and asked <hes> you know is this effectively the series startup <unk> essentially acquire this technology in i remember the sense was that they were not comfortable with with the world knowing this technology that they the actually had acquired today apple today when feel very differently about talking about that it would it really got to me was <hes> this a new opportunity in what kind of started was this new way to interact with our devices. <hes> the the <unk> guess here but what the first killer feature of siri on the iphone was wanting guests with the first use case was <unk>. I'm going to guess that it was reminders. Reminders was definitely a available <hes> the <hes> the first use case was reminders was one of them but just simply making a call being able to write <hes> push a button in call <hes> so it started out slow and the promise there to answer your question about what the biggest companies are working on <hes> was really exciting and get a fast forward the story that apple ended up. I think underinvesting invoice for a few years and then of a so we had alexa which kind of changed the game but that that's the impact that my previous career hat on what we're doing today let sorta fascinating because i think back at the time when syria came out and there were a few people who knew that there had been a seri- app in the app store but almost none of the coverage talked about <unk> out that and certainly apple wasn't forthcoming about the fact that they acquired this company. I think blake now everybody would say that that's actually a badge of honor and i am it may be maybe the google acquisition of android sorta changed the way people think about this but this idea that they had <hes> they it didn't build it in house and that was sort of antithetical to the to perfection that that apple puts out in the market definitely a different viewpoint than we see today although apple's apple's still requires a lot of companies that doesn't say much about it right they more than you realize in any given quarter the acquire call it a dozen companies than those get folded into products and so it's still there the undoubtedly but i agree that just the view about how big companies now it is almost a badge of honor to make a smart acquisition in folded into their platform. So what did you think about the news that apple had purchased pull all string it kinda the same concept that i think that they need to continue to integrated. I haven't used the product as much in but but i think it's still representative of i think what is a little bit of a different apple. Maybe just to put some context on that a dozen or so acquisitions that they do <hes> per month now. You'll have excuse me per quarter a dozen per quarter. You know <hes> a decade ago that would have just been a handful and so <hes> when i think about just all their acquisitions i think it is a way that they can accelerate some of their product development which is one of the kind of key criticisms of of some investors investors. I'm a big believer that there's massive upside to the apple store in terms of from a stock perspective but i think one of the criticisms around innovation so tanzer question anytime that they can bring in acquire a company that can advance them whether it's syria pollster whether it's apple beats with apple music all that i think is a it's a plus for the future of the company even play overpay like they did for beats. Look at those numbers this week three plus billion <hes> did they overpay for beats. My senses <hes>. They paid a lot but i don't think it's overpaid when you put the context that really set in motion their music product at this point they have more pain subs than spotify just surpass spotify the US at least <hes> called thirty million subs in spotify just slightly less than that so at the time <hes> remember the headline that we had was <hes> sounds like a bad idea and i think <hes> here's later here. I think it's a good idea okay so well probably worthwhile to understand for most people that about two billion of that was actually for that for the hardware business in one billion was for the subscription business. Which had you know maybe a million users may be. I mean it was they were early on at that point <hes>. I think they could have been successful without it. But maybe maybe maybe that didn't really matter. It's like they're they. They were protecting their downside. Risk in throwing maybe eight or nine hundred million extra at the something based on what evaluation valuation probably should have been yeah a <unk>. Don't wanna get too off topic here but just one other piece that played into that too was that team and this is the first step that they had borne born to <hes> the deals with music companies. Get on the i tuned store but as far as this new model <hes> jimmy van who's who left apple i think in and a couple of years ago yeah but you know there was this <hes> hope also as part of the acquisition that that could start to get move apple into the more of a media company specific around video. I was dead wrong on apple ever coming out with a TV. <hes> i do believe that some of the things are beats did lay the foundation dacian for the company just getting smarter about <hes> playing not only in a music streaming service but also in this upcoming video service fair enough well this is this has been fun talking about apple apple. I have another question for you. The sort of related based on something. You decided minute ago when siri i came out if we look at it and we sort of look at where it is today. It seems it was really just voice navigation so we think about the idea of an assistant versus. An inner voice interface in the assistant has intelligence the voice interface essentially just allows you to do things you could do today by touching and swiping but you can navigate them by voice and although people who are on that team and develop the original series. I don't like it when i say this. I would say that frankly siri when it came out was really more voice navigation in anything thing there was a lot of intelligence baked in it was just allowing us to do things we can already do on the iphone but to do them by voice agree in its if you look at even our most recent study on <hes> the one we just published apple. Does i would put that category as commands in the star strongest in the commander of so would <hes> agree that they've definitely expanded beyond that but that's still kind of one of the core abilities and the way i think about that as any way we can take a little bit of friction out of our lives. <hes> is for the better now using voice is always <hes> reducing friction sometimes as we all know that can introduced friction but i think that the longer term is that in fact voice will be a new paradigm is a new paradigm making our lives slightly easier to control all these devices yeah and i think it's important to say it's when i when i suggest that syria was predominantly voice navigation. It's not like <unk> pejorative statement they they did a pretty good job with that eventually and most of the navigation tools are the command features you talk about that was really valuable and continues to be used if a big big user base of that is just it's a very different concept than actually having an assistant. That has some intelligence behind. It may be an ecosystem exactly for this <unk> to catch on. I think it absolutely needs to go beyond a command in some of the basic areas that people use voice for but the apple talks about <hes> their hiring and they've they've they've been on acquisition phase hiring phase of. AI towns event ed some big hires than last year. They talk about <hes> the the the different opportunities around. AI voices a key area obviously so i. I think that it is ripe. The good news is for people who use voice is it's gonna continue to get better for obvious reasons because there are big big companies that have <hes> budget's put behind this and believe in this is a new interface gift fair enough well and so we've seen john gin gin andrea command. We've seen in goodfellow joined more recently a sam joel jolla so they do they have made some of these outside hires hires. I don't think we've seen anything yet. That's come from that. Do you think that's fair. Do you think it's still the impact from these new executives new direction. We're still waiting to see that manifest itself yeah. I think we are still waiting to see that that it's accurate a i believe that there is a i that is doing subtle things around <hes> the products whether it's recognizing someone's phone number whether with the new apple card being able to identify where where transactions coming from <unk> add more transparency around that there's little things that have <hes> ensure improved because of that team what's important about. AI this is a very <unk> type of <hes> workforce in they wanna be where the smart people are than so <hes> i think that <hes> even beyond the headline hires ben and more hiring beneath the fold and but to the reason why i agree with you is that there hasn't been this <hes> eye-popping in a type of announcement. They have a products around to make it easier for app developers integrate but the mother of all projects <hes> is. Can you wanna take a guess at that <unk> apple. Says is the mother of a. I know you know go for mother's day. I tim cook says mother. I i is <hes> automotive mobility mobility specifically so that is going to be the point when we whatever they're doing out the car. I rather not wager. Guest is done some previous predictions of mine <hes> on what they're gonna do there but i think that endeavour <unk> undoubtedly doubtedly it will be significant okay. I'm not gonna hold my breath on apple becoming a car company without an acquisition of existing car company but okay i know they're invested a heavily and i wanted to go back to a comment. You just sat around the command features. Let's talk about that in terms of voice search because lou ventures right now for people who are not looking in the investment community but just like in the voice in the industry. It's probably best known for your digital assistant. IQ tests. I agree <hes>. Would you do twice a year so you're gonna keep you the smart speaker one towards the end of the year and then the middle of the year. You look at performance on smartphones. That's correct. That's right okay. So why don't you first tell us about the methodology like how do you decide what the questions are in then. How are you gonna then segment the responses to give this. IQ score so we ask eight hundred questions in when i say we really need to give credit to williamson johnson. He's does them all we think it's important that the same person administers all the <hes> the the commands across the board because then we have some consistency about how these are all scored <hes> it is a painful process <hes> but undoubtedly we get some insights around how these these products are evolving elving those eight hundred questions each assistant were look at we break it down into five categories local commerce navigation information in command and so <hes> the in terms of the the question is is evenly spread between those five areas in terms of how we get. Their questions is a part of it. We just try to take the approach of a user and we started with a set. When we started are doing this. I would say that the majority eighty five percent of the questions are the same today as we had a few years ago. We thought that that was important. There is some evolution on the questions if some new verticals are added some of these products for example new. API might be opened up to to add a a new type of example booking a ride <hes> through rideshare then we may add some questions around that we do get a lot of input from the industry about what <hes> changes should be made into our questions and we listened to input but we are pretty judicious in terms of implementing it because we wanna keep consistency in the test. Do publish your questions. Can't we do not have people. Ask you to publish your questions. We have had that request. As of i <hes> people always wanna i know <hes> so they can then game system. <hes> so what have you learned you've done this now four times and the two different services five times so he. ES basically over two years i mean just from a high level is that there's just been incredible improvements in these <hes> the intelligence of these over the last two years years in the improvements been pretty consistent across me. We think of the three majors google assistant syrian alexa. We do cortana but <hes> not anymore. But the the the improvement has been called eighteen percent they said consistent between all so i think one big learning is that <hes> these are getting smarter and the intelligence intelligence. If you're going to say what is actually driving that intelligence is a concept of adding new categories so even though our question said has remained in relatively stable the companies have added a new categories new verticals that they tap into in when they turn them on you can almost see when they get turned on when we do our test because you'll see lisa jumps in <hes> the the results so i think one big takeaway is they're smarter than <hes>. They've gained a lot in intelligence or last year's in probably smarter than you you think. I just want to quickly recap where the results are so. This is just simply. Did they give the right answer in. We define that as we ask a question in the the answers given back to us if we ask. This isn't a question and they say check out this website. That's not getting us the answer we actually want. They answered spoken back to us so in google assistant <unk> ninety three percent of the time in our august survey here siri was second at eighty three alexa was at eighty so ninety three eighty three eighty among were getting in google assistant case <hes> nearing one hundred percent a year improvements. <hes> google improves seven percent year reviewers five percent in alexa eighteen percent massive improvement alexa really across the board. I think we just saw more. <hes> categories is being turned on by alexa in this past year so <hes> what's the other takeaway. Is there's been improvement in in. They're getting really smart. I think most people people don't appreciate <hes> all the things that they can <hes> do with these today the questions they can ask that will be answered yeah. It seems one hundred percent correct active. People don't realize how much they can do so i'm interested in the improvement in alexa in particular so siri was was maybe improve the least a percentage basis of the of the three but alexa really closed the gap. Now a couple of things about that one is <unk>. Why do you think that that that jumped up so much. In terms of it was a specific domains they turned on was just they improved and the second thing is when you think about the command category can alexa ever match google and apple given that they're not the embedded at the OS level so the the answer that last question is no. They're not going to be able to ever really stack up on that command side this last survey called seventy percent of the time alexa alexa was able to get the commands right <hes> that compares to apple at ninety three <hes> <unk> syria ninety three percent of the time and so there's a big gap there and you're executive the vertically integrated hardware approach abba uses is going to allow them to continue to be good with the commands tend to question about where did it come from. It was largely the across the board but there was one segment that's slightly <hes> showed more improvement and that was around information and i think that the you know no <hes> <hes> alexa has been experimenting with different ways to get answers name about six months ago the chemo it's a crowd source of forget the name of the program but basically allowed people alexei answer you right guy to ask <hes> and i think that that may actually be having an impact on how they're doing on the information side and so <hes> a just give a team a lot of credit for that <hes> they may not want me <hes> <hes> to really emphasize this by one area that <hes> the alexa still surprisingly struggles with commerce and part of it is just i'm trying to figure that category out but even the basic like reordering functions sometimes don't yield the results that that were hoping for so in that case alexa was that seventy one percent versus like syria sixty eight in and a google assistant at ninety two on the congress front so <hes> if you're a <hes> asked me how can that gap between a lexical that etienne google assistant at eighty three because the the biggest opportunity surprisingly for alexis. I improve on commerce which should be pretty doable. They have the content yes have the content and a suspect as a function of time before that gap apple's sure well and it might be a function of organizational structure given that the the alexa team does not control the commerce function on alexa. That's a different division so they work together as partners on that and seventh there could be some friction there. Maybe some barriers to getting things to be moving forward aureus as smoothly as they would like what do you think the implications are of the narrow wing of the differentiation between the capabilities of the of the voice systems around this type this idea of IQ. I think you're gonna see more price competition than gun the extra hardware side. I think you're gonna see other ways that the platforms are gonna wanna get their digital assistant their voice out there alexis done probably the best job in terms terms of working with third party hardware to kind of expand that in also i think that there is going to be another step in voice in the ability lead you can <unk> or the things that you can do probably the most kind of cutting edge side of it. Today is around information <hes> being able to ask a question like for example. What are the side effects of cold medicine getting an answer the <hes> which does <hes> mostly platforms will do but i think the answer questions at the bar will just be pushed pushed further higher and while we may need to make some evolution around our tests of for example one area that is a pain point that could be solved offers around booking appointments whether it's a table or a doctor's appointment and be able to coordinate schedules the alexa business platform platform allows to do that <hes> but that within a kind of a walled garden so i think that there is an opportunity for tensor question for are these platforms to really continue to push for other ways that they can make our lives better and that's going to be the new benchmark yet fair enough the we should point <music> out that booking a hair salon appointments different than booking a doctor's appointment because booking that doctor's appointment is covered under a hippo regulations in the united states <hes> so you don't textually after have hip compliance to do that so you know the other thing. I want to ask you about the the recent search tests you did an in we should maybe differentiate this from what you've done smart speakers but google assistant syria much better than alexa local search and navigation both of those his companies have mapping solutions at that are embedded in the devices in that are designed to go places so do you think the amazon is going to need to invest more heavily in mapping or can they just sources externally in order to fill the gap there. I think that the <hes> <hes> you know when i talked about closing the gap. I think what's implied in that earlier. When i mentioned that is that the gap will be closed and i don't think that the gap will eventually they'd be close. I think that if we talk about the command futures earlier we talked about some of the mapping that it just doesn't make sense for alexa to to do those and i think what we're we're gonna see. Ultimately is probably where google is going to be a dogfight between google in syria can build a strong on case that just google's information web is gonna be able to in openness to work with other parties is going to be able to advance it probably would i would. It's going to be a long-term winner here. <hes> i think syria will be close behind in the know probably be a little bit of a gap between alexa for the reason you just mentioned. There are some i'm just <unk>. Fundamental <hes> structural challenges that alexa will always have. I think it would be a mistake for example for amazon to come mouth a mapping app or or come out with a line of hardware. Go back to the fire phone to try to advance what they're doing for the sake of voice yeah so the implications -cations of that then i think what you're let me make sure i understand what you're saying. You're saying that you don't think the amazon's ever going to be able to match google. Let's say in terms of just just pure raw information intelligence that set correct. I think that will be difficult okay so do you think that that's a long term. Structural advantage manage for alexa. I think structure vange or disadvantages yes any against a long-term structural advantage for google assistant in syria somewhere in between <unk>. How do you see that as having the impact on the future of consumer adoption at use of the different assistance. I think that <hes> <hes> there isn't a window for people to you know they may have a particular passion around a device that lets say alexa alexa ends up doing a commerce's needs you wanna talk about eventually they get that right and <hes> i do you may see families can of <hes> <hes> because they're used to use it advice in. They don't actually need to be at that cutting edge. There's some momentum within the current market share. Maybe around <hes> <hes> skills feels that that they do well. I think that longer term it is makes it more difficult for somebody like alexa to really dominate voice longer term arm. I do not believe we'll have bilingual homes when it comes to these assistance. I think that you'll see most homes will eventually gravitate. There are some today but most most people just take one in with it so you're in the camp that there's going to be one assistant per person yeah. I think one per person exact. I think that it gets yes. I'm annette camp okay i. I'm not sure i agree with you there so here. Here's my thesis. My thesis is that we don't use one mobile app and actually humans are pretty a good context switching through different types of apps because they provide different benefits and none of those mobile apps have the exact same design principles goals or navigation behind them. You bring different expectations when you come to them and so just like most americans have settled in on seven apps that they use on a regular basis acis and maybe another <hes> twelve fifteen they use occasionally. I think we very well could see that. Same thing happened with voice systems. Where maybe we have one that we use is more than another may be people favor instagram and their social media world but they do facebook sometimes twitter sometimes so it doesn't necessarily mean they're all gonna be equal but it wouldn't surprise me at all aw if people use multiple assistance given the specialization that would logically come come about with the assistance any thoughts on that but yeah i i thought the specialization conc- why people would want to gravitate to specialization the the one question i'd have is just in in the you know the command features in that idea that when you have to use a different <hes> awake command that to me at some friction about having you mean different devices of the same person <hes> is subtle is that is that would be people like to it's different. You don't have have to have a different gesture for example to open up these different apps but in the case of voice you almost need a different gesture if you will the the open up the app and i think that's financing friction yeah i think that's fair and there's a different mental model associated with how they operate and how to get the most productivity out of each one so i think i think that's that's a fair statement. Well we will see. I know there's some very smart people who are in the one one assistant category <hes> and then there's some of some of the rest most of us who are thinking well they've probably be several <hes> but i'll put jeff bezos in my camp and it'd probably self serving as world because he probably knows two for certain types of things people aren't going to abandon superior or google assistant just because of habit and convenience and all these other things and that he has to figure out a way hey that alexa can become central in these people's lives even if they're using other assistance make sense okay so when we talk about the the IQ work that you've done is there any specific difference you see on. The smartphones versus the smart speakers since you've done both those types of the evaluations. They're pretty similar. You know in day the backbone <hes> the platforms behind me the same. It's just a slightly different device what you end up seeing though is a more effectiveness on for example obviously navigations of doing better because you have a screen <hes> so there are some <hes> <hes> segments that tend to do better on this digital assistant on the phone survey that we're ross versus a smart speakers but more broadly the trends are the same okay. You've recently also done a forecast and smart speaker sales so i think the top line take away from the forecast that you wrote up a couple months ago was that you expect seventy five percent of us households who have a smart speaker by twenty twenty five and that would put put the smart speaker adoption at the level of let's say cable television penetration. Maybe still a little bit below smartphones but but you know getting in in that pervasive category what would the implication of that a when <hes> three quarters of all households have a smart speaker. I think wanted to be new business miles. It will be created in even though we haven't made investments in the area voice we we desperately want to but i think that one of the applications who have that kind of adoption it can create new ways to build businesses so i think that's one side. I think second is this idea about <hes> having different devices controlled by voice. I think it has more people have it. There may be more urgency for the big companies available to have these devices is a work with each other at the problems <hes> if you look at it today for example siri you'd argue apple's the best vertically integrated graded but there's a lot of times when <hes> you will have multiple home pods to home pods in a room and a couple iphones in your request <unk> you you don't better than anybody you you can get <hes> some confusion between the devices about who's going to answer and so i think one of the implications to is being able to kind of polish how how these devices all ultimately all work together at the most basic level is what that means is that voice as a way of interface caught on twenty twenty five will be. We won't even think twice about it as <hes> for a lot of us. We don't think twice about it but for the most people still something that's new and i think <hes> six years from now. It won't be felt that way will be just that's one of the ways that we interact with our machines right so eventually becomes pervasive and then just factored turned into our daily lifestyles exactly okay so you also in that forecast you look at google surpassing amazon massana annual global sport speaker sales but not until twenty twenty three so. You've just told me that you think there will be one voice. Assistant is sort of primary. The google has this long term structural advantage and yet for another three or four years. You do expect amazon to be doing better on the smart speaker front than google. How does how do you square that. What are the implications of it but it comes from one hundred percent market share in called two thousand <hes> <hes> fourteen fifteen for our alexa and that that trend is that slope is slowly coming down so the way i square that is that it's it's it's representative. It's in line with the thinking that google assistant is continuing to to gain momentum and even though the market is expanding. I think that from a market what's your perspective is is coming from such number alexes a declining number so <hes> that's <hes> i think that's consistent with this idea that we are gravitating towards one device. It's gonna take a long time because there's a lot of <hes> embedded market share when people at different devices a <hes> in in second is that alexa has a i think a better partner program for getting into the home but so i think the you know that's why just this doesn't fall off a cliff. There's a kind of a slow <hes> wind down. I do believe just to be clear is that there is a place for alexis syrian google. This is not winner. Take all aw but i do think people will be committed to one platform <hes> but <hes> the marketplace is a hole. There will be room for <unk>. Let's call it three different players so it's not a winner. Take all this is in a corporate office productivity software like we saw with microsoft oft the correct. It's not like that. This is not a winner. Take all type of situation. I think each assistant will kind of capture a single person but <hes> the other. There's there's gonna be room in the marketplace in you know we'll we'll see what happens. You know. There's some <hes> if you look at those numbers in this one area that's been a a particular disappointment is around home. I mean that is just bumps around next to no market share. There's some institution next month we will we'll get a lower price version of that but even if you take a lower priced version let's say conversions more or less three hundred dollars <hes> and bring it to two hundred were still not in a place were you can see measurable movement there. That would be the one thing. I'm looking at this kind of drifting talking about smart speakers now but in the next few years is to see will apropos apple tried to really put the hammer down in gopher with a fifty dollar <hes> i i wouldn't hold your breath for it but that's something that were <hes> keeping a close eye on yeah. I remember that maybe it was eighteen months ago that you may have suggested that own pod was uniquely positioned to win and the smart speaker market and i think you've revised that since then so do you believe that the only way they ultimately get strong position that smart speaker market is to break all all of their roles in provided entry level value segment device that <hes> i think breaking the rollout says they've been unbending it around apple. TV it's still kind of a premium versus some other boxes in it's just now starting to get integrated into television so there is a little bit of a a blueprint for how they could advance <hes> more of the <hes> syrian home the home pod type of a model <hes> <hes> so i think that <hes> i think there is hope that they'll get there and i think at the end of the day <hes> there's two things it really boils down to one is which one is is the smartest. I think google is going to win that game seconds which one integrates best with all your devices apple's gonna win that game and i think they're both going to be successful but apple apple needs to make a hard push to bring that price down because three hundred dollars or two hundred dollars is a lot of money when the market's at forty and fifty dollars for these devices yeah. I don't think they can i don't think they can get the air at this point in terms of mass adoption of in-home standalone device without putting out something and <hes> a very low cost and even then. I'm not sure that it actually works because they don't have the ecosystem around it. They have hundreds of smart home. Integrations versus thirty thousand for google versus sixty thousand for alexa and you could see that increasing pretty quickly and you don't really need that many to cover most of the market but <hes> it'll take them a significant amount of time. My guess is that they're gonna have to play this third party. Integration side that that siri ultimately would-be accessible through other devices which historically hasn't been the case but if they allowed syria to be addressable through other people's devices then then they might be in a situation where they could expand very rapidly a wanna. Maybe clear here is that i i think that like home pot the apple hardware it can move up from the current number was wrong on my prediction that this would be the winner. <hes> can move up from that three percent. Don't expect it to be a sixty seventy percent or forty percent type of market share in the next five five ten years. I think that <hes> really what apple wants to do. Is you know this better than anybody is. As you talked about. Some of the integration is create a more curated <hes> experience and so <hes> <hes> that has oftentimes at the cost of market share fair enough. I did notice earlier. I should point out the teepee link which is one of the big manufacturers. The smart home devices just dropped thome kit <hes> so that'll be interesting to see how they recover. I mean apple such a powerful brand and driver of product sales. You could see it doing doing well at some point where everyone gets on board but right now. It seems like the standard is i'm going to support alexa and google assistant agree. There's definitely work so if you think about the three platforms how would you summarize the voice strategy of each of the leading players so amazon apple google you can throw in samsung samsung and microsoft so would your is an analyst. What would your short summary of their voice strategy. Be all of them. Wanna get markets gain market share at the core google's approaches it is to be bested information. Take what they're violent. Concerto is around <hes> organizations or old information. Make mark sensible through voice apple will is other strategies to make a curated experience that just simply works in brings off your devices together. They wanna be a the the consumer staple technology technology company. They want to be a proctor and gamble of our tech needs in being able to bring all these together is their corn invoices. One one piece of that in alexa is in a land graham. They're there early. They've got some structural disadvantages but they need to go up in continue to forge partnerships whether it's through distribution or integration with devices to <hes> try to maintain some share because they know that when you're shopping a ah you're gonna ultimately want us. Voice is one. I find it for ways to engage you. What about samsung and microsoft i i want. I want to be respectful. We just haven't spent as much time with those two and in we undoubtedly well and maybe just leave it at that. Okay fair enough enough so to sum up some of the things you've been saying so if if if google has long term structural advantage and maybe to a certain extent apple does over amazon this idea that it's a it's a land grab it. It's a market share war right now. <hes> suggests that amazon's doing all the right things to get themselves in the best position possible to have footprint before some of these other things come to pass which make it harder for them to compete exactly fair enough okay all right great <hes>. I think i agree with a lot of those things not everything but a lot of that have you. When you think about who's going to win in the space. How do you weigh the sort of ambient technology smartphone smart smart home smart speaker a smart TV integrations schenn's versus smartphone integrations. I think having other hardware integration is important part of the future and <hes> you you know we have the devices but ultimately we're going to have these in every room and people may or may not wanna have standalone devices may not always have your phone with you. You really want to get to the point where like you said ambience. The right word is that <hes> voices always accessible to me and to be able to do that you you have to have a integration with the phone but with other third party hardware i think the TV is probably the biggest untapped opportunity around voiced oysters because it's central to a lot of rooms and has the capacity to have a great microphones phones on it. <hes> it will pick a the commands and also <hes> you know just a center place in the room. I think is <hes> so i think i think that is an important aspect around the future of <hes> voice just being seamless in our our living right so we think about it then this whole idea of smart speakers being new. It's it's just about it. Can you get people to adopt them. Put them in the home. You've got smart. TV's can you integrate to them because you know with this aside from samson. Most these people aren't gonna actually make TV's. They're gonna integrate into someone else's television. You've got the car which you need to integrate with because most people are not can become auto manufacturers the when it comes to mobile. It's the monopoly or the duopoly appellation say <hes> the duopoly mobile which ultimately is going to determine the fate of this next market. I mean you hit on an important topic there to just in the car and <unk> imagine <hes> this gets back to standard on one <hes> the voice and and once you know the future of the car the paradigm will be changed dramatically in it's it's supported through mobile phone today but the use case is still pretty pretty limited people approach to music aggregation today but you can build an argument that <hes> eventually in the car for example. You're gonna to be doing just ask the same questions you'd ask in a in a room as a cars get smarter and maybe don't have to pay as much attention to the road so <hes> this that just shows the complexity of <hes> how these three companies he could say five if you include samsung microsoft are approaching this as they need to think about all these layers in putting the the box in place so you can really have a seamless experience <hes> up and down on throughout your day yeah fair enough so in terms of shopping voice commerce. You mentioned that a couple of times. I noticed that you wrote. Maybe a couple of months. It's back about walmart needing to dump amazon's playbook and your focus there was really more about home delivery and not being able to compete in that space. I think if i'm characterizing that correctly what about both ways commerce what is walmart need to do to compete with amazon along those lines a lot i mean when it comes to voice congress that have the plays he's allowed into <hes> just the back end of ecommerce when we talked about that's an accurate summary of what we had written about a walmart art dumping amazon's playbook as they always seem to be kind of trying to follow their playbook but i think there are some experiences that while walmart do their unique thing targets been doing a lot of those experiences. This is n. It's working for him. <hes> maybe we should've said should dump amazon's playbook pickup targets playbook but the so i guess the answer question about what how can commerce more broadly be improved. I think that there's this <hes> still this <hes> hurdle natural hurdle around around <hes> information discovery when you're buying things people like to see things they buy in digital assistants or your phone still your phone works great <unk> digital assistance generally don't have a screen on him so i think that's natural hurdle and i think that's one of the struggles that we talked about with amazon within in congress but also now for two in we're hearing i can't <hes> mentioned it because they're still in a i guess a stealth mode but but some brands that are experiencing in may be were these two but brand are experiencing with just new ways to implement congress <hes> through voice <hes> specifically discovery and i think that's exciting because you can kind of go through some suggestions and then ultimately be served up through a screen down the road <hes> so <hes> really encouraging longer term <unk> but all the players target walmart and amazon all need to be thinking intensely about voice so you're bullish on voice commerce i am. I think that <hes> it's still hasn't incoming freshmen but just the concept of using voice at a minimum to reorder at a maximum product discovery is powerful powerful and <hes> think time will tell so in terms of monetization models. You think that voice commerce could work there others that you think in could really drive the economics of the space. This has been a struggle for us because as someone who invest in the future one of the reasons why we haven't made any bets yet invoices. We talk about a nose for revenue founders that have it always for revenue. I think one of the challenges within the whether some i'm the voice games in the revenue still hasn't played out in a there is a misconception venture capitals about solving a problem. It's ten years down the road. There needs to be a problem today. <hes> dementia the solution but there needs to be an actual problem today. I think the problem are on friction in discovery in in in congress invoice <hes> still acute enough to create. We haven't seen it yet <hes> businesses that are have potential to generate a lot of revenue so that's one area that i'm optimistic that <hes> that will find the right solution but that were and we have a struggled to make because of that in terms of specifically a discovery shopping commerce or more broadly. It's more more broadly. I mean we've talked to the the the game companies with great founders great teams some exciting products but you know i think that they're we're still at the most basic level. I think that there is still this education process that people need to in time. We'll solve that about the power of these devices vices <hes> but it has caused a monetization challenge across the board not just congress but i think with the games in other ways to monetize voice ultimately. We need those to continue to advance voice now. If you look at somebody like apple they have monetization window. Oh by creating a tightly knitted experience between different devices home kit sells iphones for example <hes> so that that path his <hes> or in google's case <hes> branding around <hes> information or even serving bads potentially <hes> was there's opportunities around advertising so those two actually have played out well but just as far as the application developer <hes> <hes> love love to see a few out there listening. You have a concept forest. We'd be thrilled to hear about ways that we can make money on these <hes> voice product yeah fair enough so i i think it's interesting you bring up games because if we think about games they've been around for a while. <hes> when we first introduced sort of digital games that was interesting we we have the the evolution to multi-player games online and then when we we came to mobile which gaming has been a key engine for the development of monetization mobile it was really a step change so people had some of these <hes> you know things like nintendo's that they could carry around with them but most people people didn't have the ability to play a game at all at all times and so they created the situation they really expanded the gaming category that people who are never interested did in console games all of a sudden we're playing games and so it was like this really big change or go to voice. It's almost like it's as you said. It's not a problem today. People have ubiquitous access to games. There are some situations where maybe a voice game is more convenient or maybe the only viable solution shen but it seems more like an edge case yeah. Maybe there is some experiences around games specifically. Look at that some <hes> a a problem around a i'll give you an example of a game problem that voice could solve for example of voice voice around education and games for for kids screens can be addictive and <hes> voice has a a little bit of a little bit of a comfort inn erected a little bit more on the visually in the real world in so. I think there are some. There's some pain points around that that are real problems. <hes> entertaining your kids when <hes> i think the easy way to do it is to put <hes> the screen green in front of them right but there may be a more productive way i think about games like even <hes> games around <hes> languages and and <hes> voice using that that's a real problem essentially trying to fight tech addiction but yet used technology for entertainment purposes yeah fair enough. I think that's that's interesting. Games that i think about like bamboo has done some interesting things where educational games most their multi-modal stuff is actually really quite good. <hes> and they've got some voice only so i could see all of that <hes>. Are you concerned in this space when you look at the fact that most consumers and the data that i'm saying are using a small number of voice apps skills and you know call it fewer than ten john. I've seen a couple of different numbers out there but once they've had the device for longer they sort of settle into a routine of certain things they use on a semi regular basis and that of that call it seven to nine voice apps may be half of them are native or first party. Versus third party is that one of the things factored into some of the discussions you've had with <hes> some of these companies that are looking to raise money. I think that plays into it and images alternately. We want someone who owns a customer to his into some of his working with third parties and so a concern. Maybe he's a little bit too strong word but it's something that we keep an eye. Sorry now you you think you talking about this idea of owning the customer and if you're going through google or apple amazon they the only customer you're riding on their platform. One of the things we've written about invoice insider couple of times maybe mentioned on this podcast is it all of the age figure you're in the higher funding deals for technology in the space. They do not rely or really interface in any way with leading consumer voice assistance. If so does this mean that relying on the platforms is only for small opportunities and the big opportunities are necessarily independent now. I think that they can coexist. I think that <hes> yeah. I don't see that as a strong of a link there opportunities i mean for example. There is a company that <unk> stealth mode that will own a customer of but they use their <hes> just say it's around education the education marker the backbone of everything that they're doing is just a a new way that the kids can interact with voice but the backbone of what they're doing is built on alexa on so <hes>. This is a perfect example of leverage in a platform. I'm for voice in creating a product for good and <hes> there is one challenge there though is that alexa has <hes> a lot of control over how you interact act with that and so <hes> you know changing some of the command module around that is i think if if alexa would be a little bit more free to open up <hes> ways developers could ultimately tie back and lau them to create a little bit more of a brand themselves specifically around the commands <hes> though in their own commands. I think that would be an opportunity for <hes> companies out there to leverage these platforms. Do you think there's there's an opportunity for some type of use case on these platforms to generate a hundred or two hundred million dollar revenue business solely soley working through electrical assistant we <hes> we haven't seen it today. In this gets back to when we do make a investment we wanna have some <hes> at least a vision towards a big business a multi hundred million dollar business <hes>. We haven't haven't seen it when i say we haven't seen it today. I think that that could be misinterpreted to. I don't believe in voice we strongly believe invoice in believed that this is a new paradigm but just haven't seen the clear path to <hes> those kind of revenue numbers yeah fair enough so maybe off the platform. It's it's a little more clear in terms of controlling their own fate although then they don't get the benefit of all the amazon and google and apple investment <unk> platform life-form so so a little harder to get started but potentially bigger and more lucrative on the backside if they can make it work precisely so what's the biggest gap in the space right down. You wish startups would start addressing. I i think the gap around scheduling <unk> bring up a a an important aspect of around with with hip a related but just think about like a friction point in our lives and <hes> just really attacked a friction point. No one likes <hes> senate. Appointments booking enables gotten <hes> pretty easy with an app today but there are infinite little things that we could do a newsflash. I have parking tickets. I get a lotta parking tickets. I it's just it's just like paying for parking while the thought that i had was <hes> it'd be nice if i could pay my parking tickets with voice right just end so little things like that would be <hes> <hes> <hes> but you just taking voice in integrating it into other <hes> <unk> think about the meaningless tasks we do during the day in especially especially trying to get a hold of people <hes> i think that is in scheduling think about all the the local commerce that we do this kind of broader <hes> scheduling scheduling but any sort of fixing things around the home all that it'd be great if you could just <hes> if our wish was their command demand and they could make it happen right so more the productivity and automation type of solutions to make lives easier exactly pocket me automation's fair enough so last question so we've seen a bunch of negative media stories around the big platforms. All of them have had this issue where contractors are reviewing recorded transcripts and that has <hes> that has led this may be some people saying hey private information might be getting out there. It's all part of a supervised learning. Thank process today and then we see some other. Maybe slightly negatives <hes> sentiment around other aspects around the business growth and start up opportunities as in the space. Do you see either for the privacy aspects in store news stories or through other types of discussions. Do you think we're headed towards the trough of disillusionment or maybe a pullback and people's enthusiasm around voice. You think we're still a ways away from that. Grow going upward. I think it's still growth growth in the underlying reason is that the devices are getting smarter. The are ultimately making our lives a little bit better in yes. There are privacy privacy concerns and i'm in the camp that we live in a post privacy world. The privacy makes great headlines but people actually don't change their behavior. They get good example sample. That is what's happened with. Facebook's numbers over the past three quarters is allowed of right <hes> negativity around that they have grown every quarter their users nine percent year over every year just mail it in and i think that says to me that people talk about privacy but actually don't change their behavior enough gene munster how can voice podcast listeners learn more about what you're doing it loo- keep track of all the great content. You guys are putting out on a regular basis. Check out a loop dot v. c. l. o. u. P. dot the sea and <hes> send us a message love to hear about all the great things. You're working on all right well. That's great deed must through. Thank you so much for spending some time with us today. I'm brett can sell your host the voice by podcast. I can be reached on a regular basis on twitter at brechin sela. LA you can see this stuff that we're doing the whole team voiced by. We've got voiced by research download data. Check all those things indefinitely. Give a look to loop dot v. we see i think some of the more thoughtful stories around frontier attack is being published by the loop team. These days gene munster. Thanks for sharing are your expertise with voiced by audience can't thank enough but five for now all right.

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