20 Episode results for "Philip Elliott"

We Are Watching a President Process the Stages of Grief in Real-Time

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06:27 min | 2 weeks ago

We Are Watching a President Process the Stages of Grief in Real-Time

"Presented by the salvation army in a year with fewer red. Kettles helped rescue christmas for the most vulnerable to give ask your smart speaker to make a donation to the salvation army or donate at salvation army. Usa dot org. Donald trump is starting to catch on that he lost. Maybe by philip elliott the most curious head space in washington right now belongs to president donald trump as a nation. We are watching a president process the stages of grief in real time as with many things trump. That hasn't necessarily been linear the last several days. E seemed to swing between denial anger and back to denial again with a fleeting moment or two of acceptance thrown in the mix trump lost his reelection bid and voting. That ended a little more than two weeks ago on november third. He has brief flashes. And at least one tweet of recognizing that former vice president. Joe biden is coming back to the white house on january twentieth but more often trump seems defiant in the face of all the available evidence and gentle nudging from fellow republicans. That biden has defeated him. Trump has largely kept a low profile since newsrooms in near unison said on november seventh that all of the numbers they had seen showed biden. The clear victor aside from his usual late night tweets and some bizarre press stunts from supporters. Trump didn't speak again until late. Friday when he extensively was updating the country on the coronavirus pandemic but accidentally betrayed his own doubts during the briefing trump. Seem to slip saying whatever happens in the future. Who knows which administration it will be. I guess time will tell a day later. He rerouted his motorcade routes to his golf course in northern virginia to drive through a pro trump rally full of supporters who insist trump will remain in power for another four years. The signal from the white house to trump's fans was as clear as it was during trump's first debate with biden standby for what comes next yet a day after that trump seemed to acknowledge his loss in a tweet that drove newsrooms into overdrive. He won because the election was rigged. Trump tweeted was that what passes for a concession. Twenty twenty apparently not. We soon read as his timeline continued to push false theories of voter fraud manipulation and fabrication by evening. He was once again promising. He had bombshell evidence of electoral fraud. That he would soon produce and with so much of trump's bluster. It's always a stay tuned message. That never has its loop closed. Republicans in washington and beyond are ready for this to be over. Gop support has started to fray in recent weeks for trump an unconventional politician who forged unusual coalition for his adoptive party. Many politicians facing reelection down the road were wise to remember. Just how deeply trump holds grudges and can marshall his supporters to exact revenge. Still there is growing weariness with the whole drama of the trump era privately. They're ready to turn the page. I expect joe biden to be the next president of the united states. Arkansas governor hutchinson told. Nbc's meet the press on sunday. It's important that we accept. The outcome of the election after saying trump has every right in a democracy to challenge results in court. Ohio governor mike dewine told. Cnn's state of the union that. It's clear that certainly based on what we know. Now that joe biden is the president elect for the country's sake it's important for a normal transition to start the next morning trump was taunting to wine with a seemingly menacing tweet about a primary challenge. Who will be running for governor of the great state of ohio. Will it be hotly contested. A group of thirty former lawmakers from the gop wrote to trump last week urging him to knock off his allegations of voter fraud. We believe the statements by president trump alleging fraud in the election our efforts to undermine the legitimacy of the election and are unacceptable trump advisers are telling. Cbs news that he's already mulling rematch. And twenty twenty four. Some expect as reported by the new york times that trump could launch his third presidential bid as soon as the electoral college certifies by as the winter. Doing so would avail trump campaign funds to cover the cost of post white house political staff travel and merchandising he already has launched a political action committee to keep involved in electoral fights win or lose his son. Donald trump junior warned potential twenty twenty four contenders to pick up their megaphones. To support trump now still tweets and tantrums. Don't win electoral votes lawsuits. Don't necessarily help either. Trump has lost the election. He seems to know it. Even if it's taking him longer than most to accept it some like john mccain in two thousand eight were speedy and what most political practitioners point to as the textbook concession speech immediately urging unity for the country's sake others like hillary clinton in two thousand sixteen waited until the next day and of course faced criticism for not giving her speech in the immediate hours after a devastating loss. Even years after the two thousand twelve concession call between mitt romney and barack obama there remains a dispute over the actual wording romney used and whether it had racial overtones still though there was a call there has always been a call usually arranged on the sidelines of a debate between the traveling age to each candidate. This time nothing. So far the fact that president. George w bush. The only living former republican president congratulated biden before trump says just about everything you need to know about the man leading the republican party for at least the next nine weeks if not the next four years in exile.

trump salvation army Donald trump Trump biden philip elliott joe biden washington white house united states republican party two weeks mike dewine four years white house virginia hutchinson golf marshall Nbc
Republicans Log Wins in State Legislatures. Democrats in Congress Should Worry

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04:19 min | 2 weeks ago

Republicans Log Wins in State Legislatures. Democrats in Congress Should Worry

"Presented by the salvation army in a year with fewer red. Kettles helped rescue christmas for the most vulnerable to give ask your smart speaker to make a donation to the salvation army or donate at salvation army. Usa dot org republicans log wins in state legislatures. Democrats in congress should worry by. Philip elliott think the current map of congressional districts is ridiculously gerrymandered in a way that gives republicans. Unfair favor brace yourselves. It's about to get worse a week. After voting ended in the presidential race that ascending joe biden back to the white house. A look down. Ballot shows democrats did fairly poorly at best democrats claw their way to attack. The senate assuming voters in georgia give winds to both democrats campaigning. Hard there and deep-pocketed republicans. Don't block that. The house is democratic. Majority narrowed prompting internal recrimination polling messaging and blame republicans picked up. Another governor's office in montana on a national map that's already awash in red. But it's the state legislatures where the dc brief returns today. Because in most states these are the local officials who actually draw the district maps for the us house of representatives every ten years after the census states redraw the boundaries of each of the four hundred and thirty five congressional districts in the country. The underlying idea is that every district should have roughly the same number of people in it so this way larger states with greater populations can offset their disadvantages in the senate where every state regardless of size has two votes in most states. Whatever party has control of the legislature will have control over the redistricting pen and the future composition of the house for some states like montana. And it's one house member. Drawing the line is simple just circle the whole state and move on for others where partisans can carve about advantages here in script irrelevant there. It's a make or break moment can decide which party has a lock on control of the house for the next ten years. A housing project here and a cul de sac. There can determine whether a political party has any viability to even recruit candidate to make a stand at the hyper local level of state legislatures where winds can be decided by dozens of votes democrats fared poorly facing electoral shutout week. They now have zero say. In how texas. North carolina and florida draw the borders of battleground districts. Democrats fought hard to hold their control of chambers in colorado minnesota and maine blocked a supermajority in wisconsin and picked up some majorities of their own in delaware and connecticut. But both chambers of the new hampshire legislature flipped to republican hands efforts to flip iowa michigan minnesota north carolina pennsylvania and texas all seem to have failed in arizona. Republicans appear to be on a path to keep their majority to final. Tallies are still coming in. So the full picture of democrats. Drubbing isn't yet clear. But after millions of dollars and unprecedented attention to get back in control of redistricting the outcome is clearly disappointing to a party. That started at a disadvantage. In terms of numbers. Democrats had only five percent fewer seats in state legislatures than republicans. But those three hundred and eighty four seats were in the right spots that allowed. Republicans to control fifty five of the ninety nine state legislative chambers in the country looking ahead this disadvantage is set to continue one study suggests when all the results are in democrats will be able to unilaterally draw the boundaries of just seventy six districts while republicans will be able to unilaterally. Draw one hundred eighty one. Even in virginia where democrats have the house. The senate and the governor's mansion voters last week decided to let a nonpartisan redistricting commission sketch the lines. As one hundred twenty. Four seats in congress are set to be drawn. Aside from politics. The remaining seats will be decided in state capitals. Where power is divided. Why does any of this matter aside from determining the future composition of the house if you hate partisan posturing it's likely to get worse. Gerrymander districts aren't just annoying in that they are explicitly designed to keep one party from winning they reward the worst partisan impulses if a district is drawn to be deeply democratic. Any democrat. Who tries to find compromise with the republican is vulnerable to retribution from the left for betraying the party. It's how alexandria ocasio cortez was able to run to the left of new york democrat. Who may have been the next speaker of the house and asked him. It's also what the republican party faced in the early part of this decade as the tea party ran primaries against less than ideologically pure figures on the right as with so much in politics everything old eventually becomes new again.

salvation army Philip elliott senate montana ten years joe biden new hampshire legislature congress us white house minnesota georgia texas legislature North carolina delaware maine connecticut wisconsin five percent
Despite Objective Advantages, Biden Campaign Keeping Optimism in Check

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05:40 min | Last month

Despite Objective Advantages, Biden Campaign Keeping Optimism in Check

"Brought to you by the so-fi daily podcast reaching financial independence starts with having the right information every weekday morning. So keeps you up to date with important business news stock market happenings, and how they affect your financial life search for S-o-f-i S. O. F. I wherever you get your podcasts. Despite objective advantages biden campaign keeping optimism in check by Philip Elliott. You'd be forgiven for sensing a disconnect between perceived reality, the political rhetoric coming out of Joe. Biden's high command this weekend it's not an accident even as national polls show Biden leading President Donald Trump and head to head surveys by ever-widening margins. There are still viable paths towards the second term for the president when the election ends on November third sure Biden raised more cash than trump for the final report, before election, day and is swamping him on the airwaves but trump has proven a Predator natural. Survivor Democrats have a clear advantage over Republicans when it comes to early ballot returns. But the Republicans have always shown more adept at voting on Election Day Republicans have spent the last four years adding gop partisans to the voter rolls while pershing Democrats. If we learned anything from two thousand sixteen, it's that we cannot underestimate donald trump or his ability to claw his way back into contention in the final days of a campaign. Biden campaign manager. Jennifer o'malley Dillon wrote in an October seventeenth memo to supporters. In an email to his fundraising friends bundler Alex later told his list that same day to resist complacency he warned of voter registration imbalanced trump's potential non-acceptance of the results and a scenario by which the pair ties and the House sends the White House to trump. What does this mean? Don't bed wet act slater road. The Biden campaign is refusing to allow anyone to be tempted to coast on the good polls toward November third and instead actively projecting the need for a round the clock efforts until the end for the rank and file campaign staff that's translated into something of an internal miasma they look like they're part of a winning team but are being told to feel like they are running. Behind, most of the staff was hired after top Biden hands decided, it was too risky to keep everyone packed into campaign HQ in Philadelphia Team. Building is happening via zoom and slack, but it is way less fun to run on four hours of sleep a night when the all nighters are done solo and without bad cold pizza on folding tables in the break room separately Democrats familiar with private surveys conducted for. The Pro Biden unite the country Super Pac show Biden well ahead in trump twenty sixteen states like Michigan by six points and Pennsylvania by five. But Not by more than some surveys showed Clinton, winning four years ago most polls are impossible to compare apples to apples ways but nervous Democrats were quick to note that twenty sixteen is still haunting their party. We should be feeling good says one democratic consultant who is? Close to the Biden team who blames 2016 PTSD for the caution if you're abiding supporter, there's no reason you should be feeling this bad. The campaigns approach to reaching voters in the final weeks before Election Day has also left the Biden team feeling insecure Biden's team has been outspending trump on the airwaves by almost a quarter billion dollars in six hard-fought states of Florida Pennsylvania, Michigan North Carolina Wisconsin and Arizona only. North Carolina is trump slightly ahead in spending dollars in the final weeks. Biden has the airwaves almost to himself in places like Ohio and Iowa. Trump has also bailed on some TV ads in Minnesota new, Hampshire and Nevada and online biden spending on facebook by week has been ahead of trump's twice as often as trump's has bested Biden's Labor Day. According to data compiled by Bully Pulpit Interactive a democratic digital firm. But in the field trump's team is at a clear advantage. His campaign claims there knocking on more than a million doors each week whereas Biden's team had largely conceded. This tactic arguing that Biden is the candidate who was taken corona virus seriously and doesn't want to risk staff volunteers or supporters with the door to door campaign. Biden's team only recently started to engage in limited on the. Ground organizing most polls still show Biden uncomfortable shape against trump in national polls. He's consistently on more solid ground than Clinton. Ever was in terms of favorability the size of the lead his standing with seniors and without a threat from a third party vote as NBC news notes in it's excellent analysis but national polls are largely irrelevant to how we pick presidents state by state contests determine those. Outcomes and there are notably tight races such as Florida and Pennsylvania polls show Biden in a more comfortable position than Clinton ever really enjoyed in Wisconsin and Michigan the path to seventy electoral votes has many options for Biden. But fewer for trump but rationality alone isn't calming. The hards on team Joe as the Biden campaign brands itself campaign for the White House are inherently emotional affairs and. Team Joe feels under siege despite a spate of proof points that should calm worries about making rent the polls show Biden ahead where he needs to be yet their chief is saying not to imagine victory just yet the television buys across the country are lopsided shade of blue that was once unimaginable. Biden has never been talented fundraiser whereas trump's reelection bid called its fundraising machine a death star. In hindsight, there may have been a fatal flaw with that analogy no one on team trump had apparently ever watched the star wars films until the end when the death star's always are nukes by the resistance.

Biden President Donald Trump Michigan Joe White House Clinton Philip Elliott Philadelphia Team Jennifer o'malley Dillon gop NBC PTSD president Wisconsin Pennsylvania
A Presidential Coronavirus Diagnosis Is On-Brand for 2020. Dont Panic.

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03:58 min | 2 months ago

A Presidential Coronavirus Diagnosis Is On-Brand for 2020. Dont Panic.

"The Presidential Corona Virus Diagnosis is on brand for twenty twenty don't panic. By Philip Elliott. This. Article is part of the DC brief times politics newsletter. By now you've heard that the president of the United States has tested positive for covid nineteen making him. Perhaps the most prominent person on the planet to be personally impacted by a pandemic that shows no mercy for fame or power nationality or partisan identity coming a little more than a month before election day it's merely the latest reminder that as much as any presidential strategist can game out the final. March to the ballot box. There are still variables that lurk just outside of the frame. If you don't think this year can get any more unpredictable. I will remind you that the calendar began with an impeachment trial of the president saw global travel screech to a halt and is proceeding with Kanye West on the ballot for his own bid for the presidency. Don't tempt the gods on what can go astray. The late night disclosure by President Donald Trump that he and first lady Melania trump had tested positive sent the already tumultuous race for the White House into a tailspin. Top White House aide. Hope Hicks had tested positive for the virus on Thursday and reports indicated that she'd been showing symptoms Hicks one of the original hires on trump's twenty sixteen campaign had traveled with trump in recent days and is close with vonk trump and her husband jared Kushner both. West Wing hands in addition to being family members reports. Friday also indicated the president was showing mild symptoms the news all but paralyzed the White House on Friday as trump's inner circle confronted their new reality. What does a campaign look like when the incumbent president is stuck on the second floor of the White House like patient zero it's been the reality challenging Democratic nominee Joe Biden who on Friday announced his cove in nineteen tests came back negative since March. For All of the rightful hand wringing about the president and his prognosis, a corona virus confirmation is but one of the many variables in how the next month will play out starting. Next week, we'll be using this newsletter to outline the elections most likely scenarios. The one most people are worried about is that this chaotic few weeks devolve into our democracy, somehow going off the rails and yet for all of the upheaval in this dumpster fire of a year for all of the unrest in the streets over a country that. has never lived up to its promise on race for all of the struggle in an economy that's tanked by pandemic. America has always shown a strength that outpaces it circumstances for any number of reasons. The environment has never been determinative of the United States future, and in this, it's worth taking a deep breath and recalling that the history of this country includes slavery civil war bigoted internment, it surveillance and persistent divide between classes rooted in race. While wall, street may panic main street still has an enduring faith in this country. So as the president and first lady quarantine and recover, it's worth putting on a second pot of coffee setting. Aside, the smartphone on which you're listening to this right now and considering this on November third Americans will have a chance to chart their future for the next four years. The pandemic is terrifying. The economy is in tatters and injustice is around every corner even with all those disadvantages. Is there any doubt that this country will emerge eventually with any less pluck than when this calendar year began with a cloud of impeachment over it? It's an optimism that seems naive but one grounded in both history and fact.

president Melania trump White House Philip Elliott United States White House Kanye West Hicks twenty twenty jared Kushner Joe Biden DC America four years
Republicans Have Been Registering More New Voters. Heres What That Could Mean in a Few Key Swing States

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05:56 min | Last month

Republicans Have Been Registering More New Voters. Heres What That Could Mean in a Few Key Swing States

"Brought to you by lucky charms. Magical mission at a little fun to your family's morning and joined. Lucky the leprechaun on an interactive adventure through eight magical charm lands to restore magic available on your smart. Speaker just say open lucky charms, magical mission or search for it wherever you listen to podcasts. Republicans have been registering more new voters. Here's what that could mean in a few key swing states by Philip Elliott. Voters yesterday lined up before dawn to cast some of the first votes. In Miami. The lines at polling stations in Philadelphia have been out the door since September and last week the numbers on the first day of early voting in Raleigh were crushing those from four years ago. While analyses of early voting numbers suggest Democrats are foreign away banking more safe ballots in these key swing states and other reality cannot be ignored all three. Were read on election night in two thousand sixteen despite Democrats, apparent advantages that year and polling roles and organizing. Now Republicans have narrowed those advantages by ramping up voter registration efforts in these and other states over the last four years. They still haven't erased Democrats upper-hand, but they've been chipping away at it giving the party. A reason to think trump could eke out another slim win in the critical states of Florida Pennsylvania and North Carolina. How many voters are registered with each party in a state is hardly predictive of a racist outcome but it can show you how close of a mark you're starting with while Democrats appear to be dominating Republicans and early vote numbers nationally by thirteen percentage points. They had roughly the same lead for years ago and it proved insufficient Republicans say they've made improvements on the margins to make. It even tougher for Democrats now, because elections are a series of processes administered by individual states, there is no uniform way to accurately compare who is eligible to vote or who is showing up across all fifty states and the District of Columbia at this moment or against this time for years ago for instance, Ohio Michigan and Wisconsin don't report party registrations as part of their data but. There are signs that trump's inroads may have made it easier for him to replicate his win from four years ago take for instance, Florida the voter registration numbers show narrowing gap to a one point three percentage point voter registration advantage for Democrats for years ago Democrats were ahead in voter registration by party by twice that and still lost Florida by one point, two percentage points in two. Thousand Twelve Democrats had five point six percentage point registration advantage when the networks painted blue for Barack Obama just point nine points in the vote. Now, Biden is heading into Florida ahead in the polls but with only a one percentage point registration advantage for Democrats as the election starts, there are reasons to believe Democrats didn't totally fall asleep at the wheel in the sunshine state in vote by. Mail requests this year Republicans have requested one million ballots to Democrats one point three million according to the secretary of State as space that typically is a Republican stronghold four years ago Democrats trailed in the final vote by mail tally by about sixty thousand votes according to state reports by the same token Democrats for years ago lead in in prison early voting by about one hundred and. Fifty five thousand votes according to the same reports. I. A numbers suggest the trend may continue registered. Democrats. CAST forty percent more votes some Republicans on day one of early voting according to the nonpartisan US elections project. There's been a shift towards new Republicans on voter rolls elsewhere in the country to in Pennsylvania Republicans have been making inroads and adding new voters at a faster clip. Than Democrats. As a result Democrats advantage shrunk ten point four percentage points in two thousand, sixteen when Clinton lost by point seven percent points to seven point eight percentage points today still at advantages half of what Obama ran within thousand eight when Democrats had a fourteen point two percentage point leg-up over Republicans and squeaked by with a ten point four percentage point win since two thousand eight Republicans had. A net addition of one hundred, thousand votes to their roles more than Democrats and North Carolina Republicans remain bullish on keeping the state in the read column. Come November third trump carried the state by three point six percentage points in two thousand, sixteen despite Democrats nine point three percent point advantage since then Republicans have successfully added more than one hundred thirteen thousand new gop voters to the roles. That doesn't change the share of how many people identify as Republican, though some thirty point, two percent, of North Carolina voters identify with the GOP even after a three point eight percentage point swing away from Democrats from this time four years ago Democrats still have a five point five percentage point leg-up according to state elections data, but it's a far cry of the thirteen. Point four percentage point advantage. Democrats enjoyed back in two thousand eight when Obama became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in nineteen seventy six to turn the state blew. There are equally as compelling arguments and voter registration data that this is slipping from trump's grip in New Hampshire for the first time in ten years Democrats Outnumber Republicans although nonaligned voters remain the granite state's largest block in Arizona Democrats have cut the GOP advantage of registered voters by half between four years ago and August to a narrow two point four percentage points. Nationally Democrats are also expecting nontraditional and first time voters to offset Republicans advantages and women and seniors. Groups that have fled trump have been returning their ballots clips according to analysis in the swing states. Still it's clear that Republicans. Are. Flexing the muscle of incumbency Democrats appear receding in crucial states polls offer democrats reasons to be bullish but ron number suggests that advantages for the invite list to polling stations don't translate to actually shows up or guarantee how they'll behave when they take their seats. It's Republicans despite a president bent on thwarting himself and fellow Republicans still are holding out hope that they'll retain power early next year fading democratic advantages may be so well baked into the math that Republicans can ignore the antics of a president determined to fritter away for years of the quiet banal work of signing people up.

Democrats Republicans trump Barack Obama trump Florida North Carolina Philip Elliott Raleigh Pennsylvania Miami US Philadelphia GOP District of Columbia president Jimmy Carter Biden
In the Fight for Pennsylvania, Donald Trump Comes Up Short on Empathy and Resources

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07:10 min | Last month

In the Fight for Pennsylvania, Donald Trump Comes Up Short on Empathy and Resources

"Brought to you by the so-fi daily podcast reaching financial independence starts with having the right information every weekday morning. So Fi keeps you up to date with important business news stock market happenings, and how they affect your financial life search for S-o-f-i. S.. O. F. I wherever you get your podcasts. In the fight for Pennsylvania, Donald Trump comes up short on empathy and resources by Philip Elliott back in nineteen eighty six. Now Fable the Democratic Strategist James Carville was working on Bob Casey Seniors first successful bid for governor when the ever quotable Cajun observed that Pennsylvania was basically Philadelphia in the east. Pittsburgh. In the West and Alabama in between left unsaid, it's a very white rendering Alabama carvills is. A phrase that has rubbed Pennsylvanians raw since, but it's become sort of a shorthand for political operatives and journalists alike in fact, the part that doesn't fit neatly around the two major cities forms something of an upside down top hat winning the t has been the Republican playbook for decades while Democrats try to run up the score in the cities then the parties routinely scrap over a few swing suburbs. That seems to be playing out once again in twenty twenty as the DC brief continues our national tour of swing states and what the campaigns are facing on the ground. It's time to unravel one of the three typically democratic states that broke for president, Donald Trump for years ago cracking Hillary Clinton's insurance policy of the so-called Blue Wall that has traditionally stretched from Saint Paul to Philly like Michigan and Wisconsin Pennsylvania broke a lot of hillary hearts for years ago. Trump is trying hard for a sequel but he's done himself few. Favors in the keystone state by suggesting two women that his work on the economy was to send husbands back to work and alienating voters of color with seemingly every utterance with less than a week before votes start to be counted on November third and with close to two million ballots already cast in Pennsylvania it looks instead like trump is trying to close a persistent gap with Biden in polling early voting advertising, and maybe even enthusiasm trump apparently believes the contest can be one over the fracking industry in the state if you've been. Confused, by the President's frequent mentions of fracking during the two debates during his visits to Pennsylvania, it's a strategy designed to appeal to the state's energy workers who enjoyed a boom during the last decade but are finding harder times as energy prices. Dip Trump has noted repeatedly that Biden has said, he opposes the extractive practice which is criticized by some environmental groups, but there's one problem Biden dipped his toe back in the state on Monday to tell reporters trump. Had It all wrong that he understands fracking has value in the present but. Isn't a long term solution to America's energy needs and in survey after survey voters say they believe Biden is the more honest and trustworthy candidate perhaps more importantly, Biden appears to be well ahead of trump on the question of caring and in the suburbs, the compassion quotient is what motivates female voters who have been moving away from trump in droves among all voters in Pennsylvania sixty percent say biden cares about average Americans and forty five percents say that trump does even Republicans say they think Biden is acting in good faith among Republicans. twenty-five percent say Biden cares among Democrats only eight percent safe trump does in other words trump has an empathy deficit in Pennsylvania and it's not clear. Hydraulic fracking can fix it. Trump has never overtaken by in their rolling realclearpolitics average of Pennsylvania polls in the last twelve months the closest trump has come is a two point gap. Now, there are a handful of more recent small slides that should have Republicans worried according to Quinnipiac University polling of Pennsylvania voters who in the latest survey favor Biden by eight percentage points, there's another bit. Of Movement in this arena for years ago had a seventeen percentage point advantage over Clinton among white voters without a college degree according to exit polls this time Biden has cut it to thirteen points. Pennsylvania airwaves have been a brutal slog for months more than two, hundred, twenty, five, thousand, seventy, five, political ads have run in Pennsylvania. Media markets between January first October eighteenth according to an analysis of Kantar Sima data by the Wesleyan media project. An NPR analysis of data from the tracking firm advertising analytics finds only Florida has seen more. Presidential level spending. In this year, a combined almost one, hundred, ninety, six, million dollars on keystone airwaves alone. But these days most of that spending is coming from Biden's camp trump pulled down about two million dollars of plans spending from the state in September as his campaign hit fundraising skids he stopped running ads altogether and Pennsylvania and Michigan soon, after given Biden's lead Pennsylvania is a lot like a case study of what happens when a campaign takes its eye off the ball in a state that is a cornerstone of electoral strategy still. Don't put a blue magic marker and Biden's passive boiler room just yet Biden's lead in the RTP average in Pennsylvania never topped the eight point five percentage points. He saw the end of July when trump suggested, he could send federal troops to quell protests over racial injustice the US past four, million confirmed covid nineteen cases and trump refused to pay his respects for civil rights icon and Congressman John. Lewis a week before Clinton lost Pennsylvania by about forty four, thousand votes. She was up six percentage points over trump in the polling average. Republicans have also been making inroads in the state by adding new voters at a faster clip than Democrats. As a result Democrats advantage shrunk from ten point four percentage points in two thousand, sixteen when Clinton lost by point seven percentage points to seven point six percentage points today since we first crunched the numbers in swing states on October Nineteenth Republicans have narrowed their Pennsylvania disadvantage by another point, two percentage points an infinitesimal margin but this could be a tight state and finally the current unrest in Philadelphia where lines to vote. Early have been long and mail in votes are coming back at a quick clip could offer elite campaign boost for keystone state residents who might be swayed by the president's appeals for law and order. The violence may be far from the T. but coverage of it is not and trump is doing his solid bus to scare rural voters into his coroner. The riots in Philadelphia are the most reason consequence of the liberal. Democrats war against the police. The White House said in a statement released just before one I am today. One thing that certain Pennsylvania is a state that shows up in two thousand, sixteen, seventy percent of registered voters cast ballots according to state officials compared to the national average of about fifty five percent. This year Pennsylvania Democrats have already cast one point two, million votes surpassing the sixty eight thousand votes cast at this point in two, thousand, sixteen according to data. From target smarts analysis the democratic. Data firm also found at five hundred twenty eight thousand Pennsylvania Republicans have cast ballots versus the seventy eight thousand who had logged their ballots by this point four years ago. That means Democrats appear to have raised the GOP early vote advantage in Pennsylvania what used to be rough parody has now tipped to a two-to-one Democratic advantage.

Donald Trump Pennsylvania Biden Democrats Hillary Clinton Trump president Philadelphia O. F. Wisconsin Pennsylvania Republicans. Fi Pittsburgh Michigan Philip Elliott James Carville Quinnipiac University Alabama
How Old-Fashioned Letter-Writing Became 2020s Campaign Innovation

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06:28 min | Last month

How Old-Fashioned Letter-Writing Became 2020s Campaign Innovation

"Brought to you by lucky charms magical mission. Let lucky the Leprechaun take you and your kids on an interactive adventure through the eight magical charm lands to restore magic available on your Smart Speaker just say open lucky charms, magical mission or search for it wherever you listen to podcasts. How old fashioned letter writing became twenty twenty campaign ovation by Philip Elliott. Tory trowbridge has a little trick that she uses to keep things loose as she tries to get people to vote on November third as the twenty nine year old actor rights to swing state voters she switches up her target state, every twenty addresses. So she doesn't fall into a Rut this switch which comes about once an hour gives her a quick break to read up on a new place where she'll send her next batch so far she is completed more than three hundred, seventy handwritten appeals for total strangers to vote. In. A world where I thought I'd be canvassing this election. It's hard to find something to give when we can't take to the street. She tells me by phone from Chicago I am able to channel my exceeding anxiety into a prolific blue pen and write letters to underrepresented voters and hopefully having a heart felt simple message that reaches their doorstep can empower them to make the decision to vote in an election where they might feel overwhelmed. Trowbridge is part of a decidedly old school campaign designed to boost turn out on election day while tens of millions of dollars are being spent on digital ads and polished television spots. One group of grassroots activists has been busy with pens stationary and packets of fifty five cents stamps by Thursday. They had banked twelve million individual letters that will start arriving in voters mailboxes just before Election Day. The original goal announced back in April was ten million last week that target went up by five million more a separate. The postcards to swing states project hit its own goal of fifteen point seven, million pieces of mail as well. Welcome to the big send a joint effort powered by groups like swing left indivisible and people for the American way. While the effort is officially nonpartisan, you won't find many Red Make America. Great again hat said they are virtual letter writing parties organized by vote. Forward the nonprofit coordinating the flood of mail yes. They have letter writing parties via zoom some groups in Texas like to bring in local political candidates and musicians for a scaled down show to keep volunteers pens moving along every week it's been some nice background music. For Wild people right says Meghan Ross of thirty, one year old volunteer in Austin. We found nice rhythm these past couple of months nationally, the effort has drawn its own series of civic activism meets entertainment evenings the cast of Hamilton including Lin Manuel Miranda hosted a session for letter writers. It drew fifty thousand RSVP's a gilmore girls reunion coincided with another evening of action corporate allies like pay pal and Patagonia are backing the effort that on any given day right now sees roughly two hundred, fifty, thousand new letters stacking up. This snail mail effort is giving frustrated voters who want to do more away to let off steam while they can't go door to door during the pandemic, a lot of our traditional options that were in person canvassing and even getting together for phone banking and other lit drop type of events. Those were all taken away and so letter writing was really exciting and a bit of a lifeline to continue our get out the vote efforts in very challenging circumstances says Luke getting a thirty two year old volunteer in Austin. This is the new reality where the traditional tactics of gathering at campaign offices to phone bank or head out in pairs to knock on doors can't happen in the absence of organizing that creates communities of like minded neighbors every election cycle this is standing in as a substitute gone or the sheets of pizza ordered to keep volunteers from wandering out for food arrived are lists of low propensity voters who might need a little nudge to show up on November third for most of this year, Biden's campaign has been strict about shutting down large gatherings and door knocking it. Is after all tough to blast president donald trump for not heeding calls to keep distant and limit travel while dispatching volunteers. But this weekend as election day nears Biden's team is going to try to get into the field and test their version of a machine Republicans have fine tuned over the summer. But with next week's debate shut down because trump who tested positive for covid nineteen last week didn't like the remote format and Biden increasingly ahead in the polls. This weekend might be more of a toe dip in to get out the vote waters then a Canon Ball. Many skeptics who initially scoffed at the letter writing approach have come to see its wisdom. The letters can be assembled for months building up an arsenal of persuasion necessarily feel political organizers emphasized volunteers should right personally and maybe not follow us set script if they can help it the resulting stockpile of letters can then be sent on mass in the coming weeks in a show of. Force no get out. The vote door knocks could match in such a short time. We've actually been working on this for the better part of the year, our volunteers of been writing letters and holding onto them with an eye to sending them in October. Says Scott Forman. The Executive Director of vote forward the group coordinating the volunteers you can't hold onto phone banking or door knocking.

Biden Tory trowbridge Executive Director of vote Austin Leprechaun Philip Elliott Texas donald trump Scott Forman America Meghan Ross Chicago Lin Manuel Miranda Patagonia Luke president
Herman Cain Helped Define the American Black Conservative Movement. He Also Set the Stage for Trump

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06:15 min | 4 months ago

Herman Cain Helped Define the American Black Conservative Movement. He Also Set the Stage for Trump

"Herman Cain helped define the American black conservative movement. He also set the stage for trump by Philip Elliott. Herman. CAIN remembered the nineteen ninety-six moment that changed his political trajectory as clearly as any in his life. The businessman was advising Jack Kemp's vice presidential campaign and accompanied the boss to the iconic Sylvia's soul food restaurant in Harlem for an event a man in the crowd shouted out to Kane and colleagues Black Republicans, there's no such thing. The. Same Man in canes telling called them Uncle Toms. The episode. So angered Kane that when he got home from that campaign swing, he switched from a registered independent to a card carrying member of the Republican. Party and over the next quarter century, the child of the segregated south became one of the best known black Republicans in the country briefly rising to be his party's presidential front runner for the two thousand twelve nomination and remaining one of the most quotable stars in conservative media. So committed to his party's stick it in the I e host was Cain that he flew to Tulsa. Oklahoma for President Donald, trump's first return to the campaign trail after one hundred thousand US corona virus deaths despite dire warnings from public health experts at that endure rally on June twentieth the stage four colon cancer survivor posed for pictures without wearing a mask and sat in the packed stands with fellow fans of the president on June twenty-ninth Cain tested positive for the corona virus. On July second, his aides announced he had been hospitalized while fighting the disease his twitter account continued to criticize mask wearing and to promote unproven endorsements of hydroxy. On. July. Thirtieth CAIN aides announced he had died from the White House trump attributed the death to the thing called the virus cain among the most prominent Americans to die during this pandemic who was seventy four In many ways, Kane and trump were cut from the same cloth neither had been elected to any political post before running for the White House, both delighted in needling the Republican Party's establishment and the mainstream press they shot from the hip campaigned in slogans and didn't much care to learn the details. Both men were dogged by allegations of sexual affairs and inappropriate behavior, and both denied the allegations they proved disqualifying for Kane who ended his bid in December twenty eleven under intense scrutiny. But they did not derail trump just one election cycle. Later, they were also both savvy exploiters of the media. In saying things they knew would provoke outrage and thus amplify the celebrity at the core of their bids indifference toward if not hostility against what had come before was a cornerstone of their strategy, not a flaw. CAIN was born in Memphis in nineteen forty-five to a domestic worker mother and a janitor father when his dad was hired to be the chauffeur for the head of coca-cola, the family moved to Atlanta where cain would graduate from Morehouse College. He then completed his graduate studies at Purdue University after civilian service in the navy from there Kane moved from engineer to executive with Pillsbury and its subsidiaries of Burger King and Godfather's pizza where he would be its CEO. In nineteen, Eighty Eight, he oversaw Godfather's. From, Pillsbury throughout the same time yelled positions with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. That part of his resume lead trump to consider cane for a position in his administration a move that drew dissent from fellow Republicans who were not eager to revisit the allegations against Kane for three years. Kane led the national. Restaurant Association a lobbying arm for the industry that paid settlements to at least two women who detailed canes unwanted advances. His was not a typical career in his post. CEO Years Cain became a sought after motivational speaker and unsuccessful presidential candidate in two thousand and a Senate one in two thousand four. As, the tea party movement started to organize after Barack Obama's election to the White House. Kane emerged as one of its strongest spokespeople when the twenty twelve election cycle began kane decided to run the scrappy est of campaigns focused on untrue additional travel schedule that often seemed more like a book tour than an organizing effort. His novel nine, nine nine tax plan proposing a nine percent corporate business flat tax, a nine percent personal income flat tax and a nine percent national sales tax drew I rolls from economists but curiosity from voters. Antipathy toward front runner Mitt Romney proved sufficient to give cain a chance to rise in the late summer and fall of twenty eleven until his personal life just proved too much. But he didn't shrink from podcast life. Instead he became a ubiquitous voice and reliable critic of Democrats Hill. Perhaps remain best known though for his tax plan that made little sense to most economists even with his death, the nine, nine, nine sloganeering stayed on the front burner on twitter. Took one. Last Good Natured Jab at the tax plan saint. Peter will soon here nine, nine nine.

CEO Years Cain Kane trump CAIN twitter White House Pillsbury Philip Elliott Jack Kemp Republican Party trump Oklahoma Mitt Romney Barack Obama Tulsa Harlem US Godfather
Donald Trump Is Looking for Votes in Americas 1970s Suburbs

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04:20 min | 4 months ago

Donald Trump Is Looking for Votes in Americas 1970s Suburbs

"Donald, trump is looking for votes in America's nine, thousand nine hundred seventy suburbs. By Philip Elliott. The White House's move this week. To eliminate a fair housing rule seems like it came out of left field until you take a look at the rhetoric behind President Donald Trump's reelection bid trump cast the repeal of the housing rule as his step against overreach, but the political message was one of suburban grievance and white. Flight! The soon to be scrapped Obama era rules to name and shame areas that warrant keeping pace with the diversifying population by requiring communities to identify patterns of Racial Discrimination in housing and remedy them. Since coming to office, trump has cast the regulation as a threat to white suburbia in two thousand eighteen. He ordered the Department of Housing and Urban Development to suspend its enforcement of the rule heading. Heading into his twenty twenty reelection bid, he ordered purged entirely in a way that leverages the power of the presidency to his political advantage. When the president changes such a rule, it's more than just a press release. It's a serious policy shift that no one else in the country can match pound for pound with serious consequences for families of color, and what roofs are available over their heads. The rhetoric trump has used makes it very clear. He sees this as a favor to his mostly white base in June thirtieth tweet, trump said the fair housing rule was not fair to homeowners at a moment when black homeownership rates are at modern era, lows, and questions of racial justice are at the four on July. Sixteenth trump said that Democrats wanted to abolish our beautiful and successful suburbs and eliminates single family zoning destroy the value of houses and communities already built in a follow up tweet on July twenty third trump warned his presumptive democratic rival former vice president, Joe, Biden would destroy your neighborhood and your American dream by forcing housing fairness, the explicit target audience for the message the suburban. Of America! Trump's reelection campaign has made fears in the suburbs, a cornerstone of its strategy, and with good reason, strategists expect suburbanites to comprise half of the electorate this fall justice. It was in two thousand sixteen in Broadcast and digital ads trump warns voters that their personal safety hinges on him. Winning a second term, they are naked appeals to white voters, fear and trump equates those voters with the suburbs, and that could a miscalculation with. With disastrous consequences for the president polls show trump with softening public support, especially among women, and they are the deciders in the suburbs and ABC News. Washington Post poll released July nineteenth shows trump trailing among suburban women by a twenty four point gap among all suburbanites, Biden and lead by nine points in the ABC post-poll and Biden led by twenty five points, according to a marist NPR poll released in June. It's quite the. The shift from two thousand sixteen, when trump carried the burbs by four points, according to exit polls in trump's vision of the country, the suburbs, our full of voters who fled the cities as part of a white flight migration in reality, the idea of the suburbs, being a safe space of majority, white neighborhoods is a myth. Straight out of the nineteen seventies. National Trends have shown. America's suburbs have been diversifying for years while. While retaining high levels of education that often correspond with higher incomes, trump's tactics have insisting on out out-dated demographics and trying to whip up a rivalry between suburban white voters and urban black and Latino voters is familiar to anyone who watched his two thousand sixteen campaign, but given a double digits swing in suburban voters poll answers, maybe trump's message of grievance and walked back of civil rights aren't as resident as they were before. A version of this article first appeared in the DC brief times politics newsletter.

Donald Trump White House President America Department of Housing and Urba Biden Philip Elliott Obama ABC News vice president Washington Post ABC NPR Joe
Republicans Have Been Registering More New Voters. Heres What That Could Mean in a Few Key Swing States

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05:52 min | Last month

Republicans Have Been Registering More New Voters. Heres What That Could Mean in a Few Key Swing States

"Presented by the Salvation Army in a year with fewer red kettles help rescue. Christmas. For the most vulnerable to give ask your smart speaker to make a donation to the Salvation Army or donate at Salvation Army, USA DOT ORG. Republicans have been registering more new voters. Here's what that could mean in a few swing states by Philip Elliott. Voters yesterday lined up before dawn to cast some of the first votes in Miami the lines at polling stations in Philadelphia have been out the door in September and last week the numbers on the first day of early voting in Raleigh were crushing those from four years ago while analyses of early voting numbers suggest Democrats are far and away banking more safe ballots. In these key swing states, another reality cannot be ignored all three. Were read on election night in two thousand sixteen despite Democrats apparent advantages that year and polling roles and organizing. Now Republicans have narrowed those advantages by ramping up voter registration efforts in these and other states over the last four years they still haven't erased Democrats upper-hand, but they've been chipping away at it giving the party. A reason to think trump could eke out another slim win in the critical states of Florida Pennsylvania North Carolina. How many voters are registered with each party in a state is hardly predictive of a racist outcome but it can show you how close of a mark you're starting with while Democrats appear to be dominating Republicans and early vote numbers nationally by thirteen percentage points they had roughly the same lead four years ago and it proved insufficient. Say, they've made improvements on the margins to make it even tougher for Democrats. Now, because elections are a series of processes administered by individual states, there is no uniform way to accurately compare who is eligible to vote or who is showing up across all fifty states and the District of Columbia at this moment or against this time for years ago for instance, Ohio Michigan and Wisconsin don't report party registrations as part of their data but there are signs that trump's inroads may have made it easier for him to replicate his win from. Four years ago take, for instance, Florida, the voter registration numbers show narrowing gap to a one point three percentage point voter registration advantage for Democrats for years ago. Democrats were ahead in voter registration by party by twice that and still lost Florida by one point, two percentage points in two thousand, Twelve Democrats had five point six percentage point registration advantage when the networks painted blue for Barack Obama by just point nine points in the vote now Biden is heading into Florida ahead in the polls but with only a one percentage point registration advantage. For Democrats as the election starts, there are reasons to believe. Democrats. Didn't totally fall asleep at the wheel in the sunshine state in vote by mail requests this year Republicans have requested one million ballots to Democrats one point three, million according to the Secretary of State as base that typically is a Republican stronghold four years ago Democrats trailed in the final vote by mail tally by about sixty thousand votes according to state reports by the same token Democrats for years ago lead in in person early voting by about one, hundred, fifty, five, thousand. votes. According to the same reports I numbers suggest the trend may continue registered. Democrats. CAST forty percent more votes than Republicans on Day. One of early voting according to the nonpartisan US elections project. There's been a shift toward new Republicans on voter rolls elsewhere in the country to in Pennsylvania. Republicans have been making inroads and adding new voters at a faster clip than Democrats. As a result Democrats advantage shrunk from ten point four percentage points in two thousand sixteen when Clinton lost by point seven percentage points to seven point eight percentage points today. That advantage is half of what Obama ran within two thousand eight when Democrats had a fourteen point two percentage point leg over Republicans and squeaked by with a ten point four percentage point win since two thousand eight Republicans have had a net addition of one hundred thousand votes to their roles more than Democrats and North Carolina Republicans remained bullish on keeping the state in the read column come November third trump carried the state by three point six percentage points in two thousand sixteen despite Democrats nine point three percentage point advantage since then Republicans have successfully added more than one hundred thirteen thousand new gop voters to the roles. That doesn't change the share of how many people identify as Republican though some thirty point two percent of north. Carolina voters identify with the GOP even after three point eight percentage points swing away from Democrats from this time for years ago Democrats still have a five point five percentage point leg up according to state elections data but it's a far cry of thirteen point four percentage point advantage Democrats enjoyed back in two thousand eight when Obama became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in nineteen seventy six to turn the state blew. There are equally as compelling arguments voter registration data that this race is slipping from trump's grip in New Hampshire for the first time in ten years. Democrats Outnumber Republicans although nonaligned voters remain the granite state's largest block in Arizona Democrats have. Cup the GOP advantage of registered voters by half between four years ago and August to a narrow two point four percentage points nationally. Democrats are also expecting nontraditional and first time voters to offset Republicans advantages and women and seniors. Groups that have fled trump have been returning their ballots quick clips according to analysis in the swing states still it's clear that Republicans. Are Flexing the muscle of incumbency Democrats appear receding in crucial states. Polls offer Democrats reasons to be bullish but raw numbers suggests that advantages for the invite list to polling stations don't translate to who actually shows up or guarantee how they'll behave when they take their seats. It's why Republicans despite a president bent on thwarting himself and fellow Republicans still are holding out hope that they'll retain power early next year fading democratic advantages maybe so well baked into the math that Republicans can ignore the antics of a president determined to fritter away for years of the quiet banal work of signing people up.

Democrats Republicans Barack Obama trump Salvation Army trump GOP Florida Pennsylvania North Car Florida US Philip Elliott Pennsylvania District of Columbia Raleigh Miami president Carolina
New Voter Registration Numbers Suggest Momentum for Democrats

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03:16 min | 4 months ago

New Voter Registration Numbers Suggest Momentum for Democrats

"New voter registration numbers. Momentum for Democrats by Philip Elliott, the threat of Corona virus. The economic slump and demands for racial justice have brought some unexpected good news to Democrats. They have narrowed the voter registration gap against Republicans in some states and overtaken the GOP entirely others. It turns out many Americans are paying attention to the federal response to this moment and deciding it's worth their time to get involved in politics. This could complicate President Donald Trump's reelection. Reelection plans and Republican efforts to defend the Senate majority in a big way. Nowhere is this more evident than Iowa in March Republicans enjoyed about a twelve percent point advantage voter registration according to an analysis from Democratic consultants at target smart. As I have evidently become more frustrated with what they've seen. The number of registered Democrats have tipped the scales logging twenty percent point advantage. That's a problem for trump who in two, thousand, sixteen. Sixteen carried Iowa and it's six electoral votes over Hillary Clinton by just nine points. The state is also home to what is shaping up to be a difficult reelection campaign for incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst elsewhere on the map. There's been a similar flip in Montana where another marquee Senate race is underway Democrats started march down eight percentage points and ended June up five points. Trump easily carried the state by twenty points four years. Years ago. So there's less at stake in the presidential race than for incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines who locked in a tough fight against popular democratic governor. Steve Bullock voter registration numbers are notoriously non-uniform. So making comparisons among all fifty states is almost impossible, but the early indications based on voluntary disclosures suggest a crumbling though still standing red wall of support for trump, there has been a fourteen point swing in Arkansas a sixteen point. Point. Swing in West Virginia and a thirty, two point swing in Oklahoma Democrats, don't dream of winning electoral votes in any of those places. But it suggests they're continuing efforts to put red states like Georgia and Arizona on the map aren't pure folly. There is already evidence in Georgia that the multiple national crises are translating to new. Democratic. Voters for their June primary. Georgians mentally remade the electorate at the exact moment Atlanta began protests. Protests over the death, of George, Floyd before the demonstrations, black voters cast about thirty, five percent of the early in person ballots. After the demonstrations found footing that number rose to forty seven percent. The turnout of young people also rose in Georgia from about seven percent of ballots cast by those under the age of thirty before the protests began to sixteen percent a week later in the primary to be sure being black or being. Being young doesn't translate into being a Democrat. But there are clear trends that suggest there is some wisdom in those assumptions, a fraying Republican Red Curtain, showing signs of Democrats successes at expanding the electorate. At the precise moment, Republicans are banking on mobilising their base and few others. The numbers coming in to this point suggests big potential Democrats if they can both continue without republican counteraction and translate voter enrollment into actual votes by November. November still, this is all taking place in a political environment in which trump commands the biggest bullhorn in the world. There is no reason to believe. He won't try to use every bit of it for his advantage. Just look at his Thursday morning tweet suggesting that it might be worth delaying the November election. Until the pandemic passes, it will fall to these newly registered Americans to demand their right to cast their first ballots.

Donald Trump Georgia Senate Iowa Senator Joni Ernst Senator Steve Daines Philip Elliott GOP Hillary Clinton Steve Bullock President West Virginia Arkansas Montana Oklahoma Atlanta Arizona
Roaring Crowds Are Gone, But NBCs Lester Holt Says There's Still Convention to Cover

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10:00 min | 3 months ago

Roaring Crowds Are Gone, But NBCs Lester Holt Says There's Still Convention to Cover

"Balloon drops, out roaring crowds gone but says NBC's Lester. Holt. They're still convention to cover. By Philip Elliott this article is part of the DC brief times, politics newsletter. We're only a few hours away from the first virtual political convention being gaveled into session and it's already clear. Things are going to be very, very different for one the journalists who normally crowd the convention hall for the Big Moments are going to be dialed in from their kitchen counters and living room couch is like other Americans still stuck at home in the middle of the pandemic. There won't be rogue delegates to interview or random chance from the floor to 'cause embarrassing off brand moments there may still be surprises, but they're likely to be the kind that have been scripted and executed by the convention's producers. For, veterans of past conventions, the all remote setup is just the latest hiccup in this year's election season as the world grapples with Corona virus both parties have almost entirely switched to streaming schedules and cut way back on the hours of floor programming the Democrats Convention starts tonight followed by Republicans show this time next week news organizations will still treat the evenings as the political ground zero that they are, but there's just a lot less sizzle in the offing as the very campaign trail has turned into a very long facetime. There may be some upside to cutting back on the hours and hours of speeches, a quicker and less inefficient night of political preening. Ahead of the Convention Start I caught up with NBC News Lester Holt the first man to be a US network newscasts solo anchor. He'll be leading the network's coverage of the conventions during the ten pm hour with ratings up for flagship newscast across the networks we've talked about how he's been framing the colliding stories of a pandemic racial justice and a presidential campaign that politicises everything including masks for the next two weeks. Holt will be reporting from NBC's midtown Manhattan Studios a spot. He's only seen a handful of time since March. Our conversation has been edited for CONCISION and clarity. Time you're about to anchor a global event while not there. What's that like Holt? Well, it's particularly strange for me because one of the hallmarks at nightly news is that I like to take viewers to the story I WANNA talk to people I want to bring a personal connection to the story, and of course, we've lost that ability on a lot of things that we cover part of the conventions are the conversations in the hallway. It's the people you run into, you pick up little nuggets along the way. This is going to be very different watching in a studio people who may be giving speeches from their living rooms or their kitchens. This is kind of terrible on a personal level isn't it? Oh, sure it is. It's just one thing that we took for granted that's being taken away from us from a personal level. I had a lot of expectations. This summer I was going to be covering the Olympics I was going to be covering these two conventions traveling to wherever the debates are none of those things are happening, but the process of electing a president goes on like so many Americans and so many businesses we're figuring it out as we go along. This year has been a rough one for our business. You mentioned the Olympics, which is an NBC institution that's off the table. For the moment we've got no conventions no campaign road warriors. How do we as an industry make it through this while also continuing to do exceptional journalism The candidates simply aren't traveling I mean the president has been traveling some and within the White House bubble, we've had some access in Delaware to Joe Biden but you're right. We're not able to cover things the way we used to thank God for Zoom and some of the other technologies we've been able to employ but I'm not gonna lie it's hard to replace that one on one contact that ability to cultivate sources and just listen to people and voters and decision makers about what's happening. Your audience is used to a visual medium. We're going from balloon drops and pandemonium to what's basically zoom happy hour. How did you get your audience ready for that? The speeches will be the speeches but at least with the Democrats, you're not going to hear a crowd roaring its approval or reacting in any way I. Guess in this aspect, we're going to be really focused on the words themselves because the performance art that's part of conventions that part is going to be missing the imagery is so different. You mentioned a hall with balloons dropping. We're going to see somebody's toaster in the background. Might we actually beginning to a point where we're looking at the ideas instead of pageantry I think. So look at four years ago, lock her up became a mantra for some of candidate trump supporters at that time those moments we probably won't see, and so we're going to be forced to focus on the messages the timing the words as opposed to how the crowd reacts or those surprise moments in the crowd or the demonstrations I would argue that we're not going to have as many distractions that we might otherwise have. If, this whole thing is scripted from the start. Why bother with it? They bother because they know that they're going to get the television coverage the you and I are old enough to remember the days when it was wall to wall convention coverage on the networks that's not happening anymore but it still valuable real estate on network television. So I can't imagine either candidate even considering for a moment not doing a televised convention it still part of the process. Where will you be physically sitting during this? I'll be in studio one, a the today show studio with Savannah Guthrie. Of course, we'll be physically distanced Andrea, Mitchell Chuck Todd will be in a studio in Washington DC. So four of us will navigate through the evenings on the personal side being able to go to the studio and sit next to Savannah is a huge upgrade I've been sitting in a spare bedroom for the last several months doing nightly news by myself every night it's been a lonely existence I'm not complaining obviously, there are a lot of people going through tough times, but the ability to come back to thirty rock and sit in the studio is something that I'm personally excited about. have. You embraced with the rest of us have during this a suit tie and at leisure below the desk I'll be honest I'm usually wearing jeans but I gladly put on that jacket insured and tie. Now having said that I've gone out to do interviews for nightly news pieces and dateline. So I'm not inside all the time but in terms of anchoring, it's primarily been from home. We're in the middle of three major stories converging at once and the story on race has been one where you've been pretty frank. Do you have a platform that perhaps Norah O'Donnell and David? Muir don't. People look at me. They expect me to have an opinion order to be affected by these things that doesn't necessarily show a bias, but it is a recognition of who I am as a person people come to this broadcast presumably because they trust me and they respect me if I didn't say anything I think it would be disappointing now I choose my words carefully but I don't think it's a bias to want this country to live up to its ideals that it's a bias for this country to be fair that it's a bias for people to want their police to function in service of people. This might be the biggest story of our career. The whole mantra is journalism is a first draft of history. You have a say in what goes in the history book what makes the cut? I wrote the Intro to broadcast last night we just come off another weekend of huge crowds of people openly defying local and state regulations. This didn't air, but it was something to the effect that when the history is written of why this country failed in dealing with this pandemic volumes will be spent on our inability to do the simple things like wearing a mask and social distancing. That's a paraphrase but it's pretty close I think it's appropriate sometimes to call it like it is. This is an important time for journalism. This is an important story and when it landed at our doorstep I thought. All right. You, know we've taken three and a half years of a beating of people trying to discredit us. But this is a story that everyone has to pay attention to that people will recognize the importance of a free press that happened but then the politics creep back into it I guess I was a little naive i. didn't expect that I thought this could be seen for what it was a health threat that we all shared instead suddenly it became seen through the Lens of blue and red again that was crushingly disappointing. It worries me about our future that even something like this has been marred by politics. Can we purge the politics from it or is it too late I? Think it's too late most people get what it takes to fight this disease they understand masks and social distancing. This has become almost the new global warming the planet is getting warmer. That's not a political statement, but it is for some people. Covert is spreading because too many people are crowding together. That's not a political statement, but some people will see it as such. How dare you embrace science in fact? The thing is as journalists we obviously have to report the body of science on this, which is huge in the direction of social distancing and get that mask wearing. We don't want to be caught up in a political debate. I don't want people to think I'm being political. When I say we should all be wearing masks unfortunately that's what the environment has. kind of led us down the road to.

Lester Holt NBC Olympics NBC Philip Elliott president Savannah Guthrie US DC Savannah Delaware NBC Joe Biden Norah O'Donnell Washington DC Manhattan Studios Muir
Republicans Add Funding for New FBI Headquarters to Pandemic Relief Package. Just Dont Expect Them to Vote For It

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03:49 min | 4 months ago

Republicans Add Funding for New FBI Headquarters to Pandemic Relief Package. Just Dont Expect Them to Vote For It

"Republicans add funding for new FBI headquarters to pandemic relief package. Just don't expect them to vote for it by Philip Elliott. Back in March Republicans summoned all of their outrage when Democrats tried to attach money for voter protection, airline, air quality standards, and clean energy incentives to Congress's most recent corona relief package. Now, four months later, the same Republicans are sheepishly trying to tack on almost one point eight, billion dollars for a new FBI headquarters in the follow up piece of legislation. The first two point two, trillion, dollar corona virus relief package was extravagant but widely deemed necessary including an unprecedented small business bailout a lifeline for the airlines and generous unemployment benefits that saw many workers actually increase their take home pay after losing their jobs. The second round is shaping up along similar lines though some fiscal conservatives in the Senate are showing signs of balking a rare defiance of Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell. But the inclusion of one point seven, five billion dollars to spend on the new FBI headquarters buried one hundred eight short words on pages, eleven, and twelve of the appropriations committee piece of the offer rankled Republicans up and down the leadership ladder when it was included in the draft of the relief plan released on Monday at first it seemed McConnell was not aware that the draft legislation included the new headquarters for the nation's top investigators when I questioned about it by reporters, McConnell denied it when corrected the Dry Kentucky and only told his audience to look for answers at the White House you'll have to ask them why they insisted that be included he said. The timing could not be clunky or for a Republican Party at risk of losing its majority in the Senate as President Donald Trump's reelection grows shakier. While all GOP lawmakers with the exception of Mitt Romney found ways to excuse trump's behavior that led to his impeachment in the House and acquittal in the Senate back in January, the ground has now shifted. A number of vulnerable senators have started to distance themselves from trump as his approval ratings have tumbled with the arrival of the pandemic. The Justice Department is now more than a year into its own internal investigation into why trump scrapped well laid out plans in two thousand eighteen to move the falling. Apart F.. B. I. Headquarters from downtown DC to the suburbs amid speculation that the current plot of land could be ripe for redevelopment as a hotel. Lost on. No one is the fact that trump's own DC hotel is across the street from the current headquarters and may refer to keep feds and not rivals as neighbors. So bold was the attempt to squeeze a replacement for the dilapidated FBI HQ into the draft bill that the chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee could only respond gruffly as to why the spending was included. Good question senator. Richard Shelby. told reporters on Monday at the Capitol never mind that it was his committee staff that included the terse spending provisions in the proposal, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee that has oversight of the F.. B.. I.. EQUALLY READY TO BOOT new headquarters from the proposed legislation, it makes no sense to me Senator Lindsey Graham said on Tuesday with a fractured caucus like this. It's little wonder McConnell is looking around with weariness. There is little optimism that anyone will draw plans for new FBI headquarters based on the legislation being passed around the capital right now but because trump demanded it senate republicans have to at least pretend they're considering it and to take the lumps that come with looking like hypocrites on wishlist add ons.

Donald Trump FBI Senate Mitch McConnell Republican Party Senator Lindsey Graham chairman White House Philip Elliott Appropriations Committee Congress Mitt Romney DC Judiciary Committee senator Kentucky Justice Department President
McConnell Says Local Budget Offices Are Hoarding Cash. They Say: Malarkey

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05:02 min | 4 months ago

McConnell Says Local Budget Offices Are Hoarding Cash. They Say: Malarkey

"McConnell says, local budget offices are hoarding cash. They say Malarkey by Philip Elliott. It was one of those comments that stops Washington insiders cold in their tracks on Saturday Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell was telling an interviewer that his home state of Kentucky among the worst at responsible budgeting had only spent about six percent of the money congress had sent it to deal with the economic pressures of the coronavirus pandemic. McConnell was trying to make the point that Congress should wait until states spend what they have. In their pockets before shoveling more cash to help local budgets in the next aid package, it seemed an impossible claim. But sure enough the Senate's top Republican was right very little of the emergency dollars meant to help his or other states has been going out the door according to a July twenty. Third Treasury Department Document and Kentucky isn't alone in sitting on, it's piece of the one, hundred, fifty, billion dollar highly conditioned bail out. Just as jaw-dropping as McConnell's assertion was, it's fast dismissal from outside the beltway in all seven partisan associations representing governor's state fiscal officers, mayors, and local elected leaders started a systemic and clear-eyed rejection of McConnell's claim that states didn't need more money to stay afloat within a day of McConnell's interview which aired on Greta Van Susteren Sunday show on gray television. The joint lobbying effort got a second wind to bail out state and local governments. The advocates goal a cool one trillion dollars. Whether or not treasury should send another bail out to local governments is the latest faultline to emerge congress is trying to marshal a response to the coronavirus pandemic that has tanked. One of the US economy sent tens of millions of Americans onto unemployment rolls and shattered stability for all sectors of the country for weeks. Washington has been deadlocked over just how read the latest budget will glow in debt based spending unions and advocacy groups have been blanketing the airwaves with ads urging Congress to pony up for public health, workers, teachers and civil servants whose paychecks are all cut at the local level. Most states to run balanced budgets legally, they can't go into debt when times get tough local governments like county cities and townships have a little more leeway but not a ton they can borrow cash but banks aren't rushing to lend a lot of these places cash as they confront their own dodgy ledgers, which means Washington is the local commissioners funder of last resort. To that end Congress set aside one hundred, fifty billion dollars in emergency aid for state and local governments during the most recent round of pandemic help. But it hasn't been flowing freely for a couple of reasons. The first round of cash went out in late, April for one, hundred, ten, billion dollars. But much of it got trapped in bureaucratic inaction because most budgets start fresh on. July first there writers held off on any major changes until then the treasury department documents cited by McConnell and his allies account only for cash through June thirtieth. At the same time many states set into motion a system whereby cities counties and tribes would be reimbursed for programs and it's not like many of these local governments had robust accounting offices ready to file forms for pandemic relieved spend now seek reimbursement. Later in other words the I. O. U.'s simply haven't come in yet on top of all that the Treasury Department hasn't been clear in its rules for spending this money at first, it was only meant to be used to cover health costs and not to patch budgets but that seems to have shifted and McConnell has hinted that local and state governments may use the money how they wish going forward. The timing of McConnell's assertion though is one of those rare moments of serendipity where the local leader may have a shot to force Washington to listen to what's really needed on. Wednesday. More than forty governors are expected to join a remote summit of the national. Governor's Association. It's handed the moment Republican governor Larry Hogan. Maryland. Is No lapdog to trump at the same time. Local officials are hardly hiding their own peak in A. Survey of members of the International City County Management Association fifty five percent of respondents said they hadn't yet received the promised aid add onto this an expiration of a six hundred dollar federal supplement to state unemployment insurance and the end of an envision moratorium. The pressure cannot be ignored. Congress may not like it. But America is not eager to see it streets full of homeless jobless and sick neighbors accounting spreadsheets cannot justify that tableau.

Mitch McConnell congress Washington Treasury Department Kentucky Senate Philip Elliott Greta Van Susteren US Governor's Association America A. Survey Maryland Larry Hogan International City County Mana O. U. fifty billion dollars
Washington Grinds To a Halt, Leaving Americans Mounting Problems Unsolved

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03:05 min | 4 months ago

Washington Grinds To a Halt, Leaving Americans Mounting Problems Unsolved

"Washington grinds to a halt leaving Americans mounting problems unsolved by Philip Elliott. There are times when everyone in Washington puts their best face forward and projects optimism as unemployment insurance drops out from under millions of Americans evictions are no longer banned and even post offices have become an endangered species. This is not one of them. Lawmakers are locked in bitter and increasingly personal negotiations over what comes next to help struggling Americans staring down a pandemic. No. Solution is in sight a federal supplement to unemployment insurance expired a week ago as did a ban on kicking renters out of homes, they can't afford at the moment the postal service soon to be the chief elections administrator amid the coronavirus pandemic is a new battleground for lawmakers who are about to head into full-time reelection mode with their deliberate inaction looming in the background. The August recess is poised to start when America's elected officials will go home to ready the fall campaign season with face masks says the new yard signs, the optics of going home as health economic racial crises are entering a six month is the equivalent of pouring a bucket of iced water on a cardboard cutout of lady liberty put simply anyone telling you Washington cares about people like you is fibbing to be fair lawmakers are exhausted senators on the ballot. This fall told McConnell to park colleagues in. Washington. So he can save his grip on the gavel beyond November's elections White House chief of staff mark. Meadows is taking his first turn as the administration's leading hostage negotiator and he and treasury. Secretary Steven Mnuchin have been schools on the details of policy repeatedly by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate majority. Leader. Mitch McConnell aren't talking to each other all the while millions of Americans are in their first week of sharply reduced safety nets meadows a former House member who was a leader of the burn it down Freedom Caucus signaled he was losing confidence in the potential for a deal before a self imposed Friday deadline to fix is Friday a drop dead date no, he said but my Continues to diminish the closer we get to Friday, and it certainly falls off the cliff exponentially after Friday. Another bludgeon of honesty came during Senate, majority leader Mitch McConnell's interview on Wednesday with The New York Times chief Washington, correspondent, Carl halls during a conversation between the to Capitol Hill veterans McConnell offered this blunt assessment as to why he wasn't part of. The negotiations about the next round of pandemic relief unfolding among Pelosi Schumer Meadows and MNUCHIN. It eliminates sitting there and having to listen to Pelosi and Schumer's talking points which gets in the way of serious discussion. It takes someone unlike halls to elicit that level of candor from the notoriously Sphinx McConnell. But in the words of the president, it is what it. Is. There's no easy fix to this moment. Washington dysfunction is running high distrust among the parties not to mention between the Chambers is soaring when lawmakers can't agree on the fundamental need for postal workers to keep doing their jobs through snow rain heat and gloom that signals a fundamental breakdown in what America expects of its government when tens of millions of out. Of. Work. Americans are told to trust. Washington that suggests Washington doesn't see what it's actions look like beyond the beltway and when voters who don't have a place to call home come election day are asked who should represent them in Washington don't count on them to side with the folks who led a fiction start up again might be time to start recalibrating.

Washington Mitch McConnell Pelosi Schumer Meadows America Senate Chuck Schumer chief of staff Philip Elliott House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Schumer White House administrator Steven Mnuchin Carl halls treasury Secretary
Mike Pences Lecture to Kamala Harris at the Debate Isnt Likely to Help Trump With Women

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06:02 min | Last month

Mike Pences Lecture to Kamala Harris at the Debate Isnt Likely to Help Trump With Women

"Mike Pence's vice presidential debate lecture to Kamala Harris isn't likely to help trump women by Philip Elliott. Even before Wednesday night's slow boil of a vice presidential debate in Salt Lake City the reelection bid of President Donald Trump and vice president. Mike Pence was in trouble with the one demographic on which elections hinge women. Then with condescension and contempt pence sat with Senator Kamala Harris California. The first woman of color to be on a major presidential ticket and lectured and sidestepped when moderators Susan Page of USA Today declared that the debate would be civil pence visibly smirked. He knew better. Senator Harris it's a privilege to be on this stage with you. Pence says the evening started he later praised her history-making candidacy and thanked her for her public service. It was UH venire respect that he didn't necessarily practice during the debate repeatedly refused to heed time limits or even answer the question being asked to be sure dodging questions was the order of. The evening for Harris to although far short of the acrimony of last week's debate. It was a steady reminder that the trump campaign recognizes it is on the ropes and in desperate need of a reboot when asked if pence had spoken with trump about plans for a transfer of presidential power as the president was treated for covid nineteen pence was utterly evasive. Pence steadfastly refused to engage and instead scolded Harris without evidence for undermining public confidence in science. After she expressed skepticism about trump's push to Russia Cova, nineteen vaccine into production it is unacceptable. Pence said when asked about how trump's? Plan would address individuals with pre existing conditions. Pence demanded Harris answer an unasked question about packing the Supreme Court. Evasion is an art when pence was asked if voters have a right to know more details about presidential health records, pence praised Harris's groundbreaking nomination. So is a pivot. Harris. Used the same question to raise questions about trump's taxes which are still a mystery because he has broken all post Watergate norms of transparency. Anything known about trump's finances are thanks to New York Times reporting. That's not to say Harris was a passive participant in the practice of politics when she asked about her discussions with Vice President Joe Biden about presidential power she outlined her own ceiling shattering biography. When page tried to tell Harris to wrap up. Harris. Simply demanded equal time he interrupted and I'd like to finish Harris said. In terms of style, Harris gave as good as she got. She has mastered the side I as much as pence as control of his dismissive shake of the head. Her Mama identity and it's moment. Later, when asked about the death of Brianna Taylor, she hit back at pence for implying that she didn't trust the US justice system. Will Not sit here and be lectured by the vice president about what it means to enforce the laws of our country Harris shot bag. When Harris criticized trump's tax cuts pence shook his head and rolled his eyes. When asked about abortion rights pence used his time to criticize Harris's conduct on the Senate Judiciary Committee and to talk about an assassination in January of an Iranian general. Mr Vice President I am speaking I am speaking Harris says pence interrupted her answer on Biden's tax plan. If you don't mind letting me finish we can have a conversation. The evening was nothing approaching the chaos that unfolded a week earlier when trump repeatedly interrupted Biden and the former vice president responded with name calling and what was generally panned evening. It would have taken a circus tent of animals crashing into the socially distanced. In Utah to create anything approaching that threshold. Each candidate had clear task at the four of mine pence was performing for an audience of one who was watching from the White House as he recovers from covid nineteen hence, the Ad Hominem attacks against the media when challenged about trump's refusal to denounce white supremacy last week's debate. Harris by contrast was there to cast her candidacy as a safety blanket for voters worried about Biden's age and what comes next for Democrats. As the debate entered, its second hour pence seemed determined to further erode the GOP tickets standing with women by embracing limits on abortion rights four and five women in the country support abortion rights according to Gallup's polling. The surveys find fifty three percent of women identified themselves as pro choice as opposed to forty. One percent of women who call themselves pro-life. However, given an opportunity to say abortion should be outlawed if an Amy Coney Barratt supported Supreme Court majority overturns Roe v Wade. Pence. dodged. In Two thousand sixteen trump lost women by thirteen percentage points according to exit polls he has done little to bring them back into the fold trump's unfavorable rating with women has grown from fifty percent in January of twenty seventeen to fifty seven percent last month the gender gap is staggering strategists from both parties are bracing for that number to climb to more than twenty points absent a major change in a sizable block of voters who reliably show on. Wednesday evenings debate did little to change that in a dismissive tone. Thrice pence used a variation of Daniel Patrick. Moynihan's famous quote that Harris is entitled to her own opinion but not her own facts. That's not a good way to win over women who as they did in two thousand eighteen tend to side the results on election day.

Mike Pence Senator Harris Donald Trump Vice President Joe Biden vice president Senator Kamala Harris president Harris Supreme Court Susan Page Mr Vice California USA Today Philip Elliott Brianna Taylor Salt Lake City New York Times Utah
Fauci Shows Washington How to Win With Facts

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02:58 min | 4 months ago

Fauci Shows Washington How to Win With Facts

"Dr Anthony Fauci shows Washington how to win with facts by Philip Elliott in a city famous for studied misdirections, cynical spin and outright lies. There's one man who has refused to play the typical Washington. Games Dr. Anthony FAUCI. The Director of the national, Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has gained millions of Americans. Trust this year with his frank assessments of the Corona viruses threat to the nation, but his boss President Donald. Trump doesn't love vouches winning streak from the beginning of the coronavirus crisis FAO. She has been fairly transparent about the challenges. His role comes with. He's the. The Nation's top hand on infectious diseases a post he has held since Ronald Reagan's first term in the White House from the early days of HIV AIDS TO SARS and Ebola. There has seldom global crisis summit. Where felt she hasn't had a reserved seat in VIP box of government nerds at seventy nine. He's well past the Washington. Worry of needing this job so that he can get his next. He has notoriously honest and studiously apolitical. He doesn't mind saying when the bosses wrong regardless of party, but he will never give critics the Zinger that makes it to the attack. Attack Ad polls show. People feel FAUCI. She twice as trustworthy as trump. A man whose reelection bid is at best uncertain, unsurprisingly the tensions between foul the White House the president who wants a return to normalcy as soon as possible before November have become legend in recent months in Washington White House aides last week. Anonymously circulated a dossier on FAO g meant to discredit him. That was as thin as the best feel. Dojo. Top aides have reupped memes against him. The president's trades are even published an op Ed against him FAUCI recognizes the paradox of his circumstances in an. An interview published this week in the New York Times thoug- openly acknowledged that he has a choice between telling the truth or staying in trump's good graces. Would you want me to say something that's directly contrary to what the president is doing. That's not helpful. Then all of a sudden. You don't hear from me for a while. He said for his part. The president continues to say he had a good relationship with algae before adding that, the doctor made mistakes from the beginning voucher has showed little interest in providing cover for the trump administration when it has fumbled. President suggested that sunshine and bleach could provide an elixir to the virus. FAO stuck to the science and didn't out who his boss. While White House aides stammered and rationalized vouch. You just cited the science, saying unlikely that corona virus will ever be eradicated. Voucher who signed on as a fed in nineteen, sixty eight knows the ropes. He understands the political knife fighting that stains, the halls of bureaucratic cafeterias well back when we had cafeterias, and he quite simply doesn't care all he can do is correct the record when asked I can't jump in front of microphone and push him down. He told Science magazine at the crisis is start. Start on Thursday. Ouchi is set to open the Washington nationals season albeit in an empty stadium, and with little of cheer that accompanies lobbyists favorite day to flex their corporate box muscle for those outside the beltway. The crack of the bat signals a return to what passes for normal inside the beltway thought she's minute on the mound screams that in some places meritocracy still matters.

Trump Dr Anthony Fauci president President Donald White House Ronald Reagan Washington Institute of Allergy and Infec Washington White House FAO Philip Elliott Director FAO Washington Ouchi Science magazine New York Times AIDS SARS Ebola
Long a Republican Safety Net, White Middle-Class Voters Are Slipping From Trumps Grip

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02:51 min | 3 months ago

Long a Republican Safety Net, White Middle-Class Voters Are Slipping From Trumps Grip

"Long a Republican safety net white middle class voters are slipping from trump's grip by Philip Elliott on Monday evening President Donald Trump stood at the front of the White House briefing room and uttered yet another proposal that lacked both specifics and any probability of becoming a reality. So we're looking very seriously at a capital gains tax cuts, and also at an income tax cut for middle income families. Trump said echoing a promise to cut taxes before the twenty eighteen midterms we're looking at expanding the tax cuts we've already done but specifically for middle income families politically, it makes sense some seventy percent of Americans consider themselves in the middle class in reality, the middle class makes up around fifty percent of the country although a definition is hard to nail down in an election year cutting or at. least offering to cut taxes can be appealing in the middle of pandemic. It's an even sweeter promise assuming you're not one of the thirty one million Americans who have already lost their jobs and have a lot less income to tax economic anxiety is through the roof and maybe the prospect of a few extra bucks in the wallet could ease some of those legitimate jitters but in trying to appeal. To Middle Class voters trump may have tipped us off to his biggest threat to a second term. Recent elections already indicate that the group has been drifting steadily away from Republicans in Two Thousand Sixteen Hillary Clinton carried forty nine percent of voters earning less than one hundred thousand dollars annually outpacing trump by four percentage points. Two years later Democrats. Boosted that support to fifty six percent to carry the. Midterms and recapture a majority in the house hours before trump spoke at the White House a bipartisan pair of respected pollsters released their latest polls taken in battleground states, their findings white voters in the middle class are defecting from trump at a pace that could send him into history books as a one term president, the bipartisan Town University Institute of Politics and public service slash battleground poll puts the. Slice of the electorate in the middle class around fifty nine percent a chunk you cannot ignore specifically, they found white voters in the middle class presently account for forty six percent of the electorate in that group deep problems look for Republicans who historically have banked those votes back in October. The pollsters found trump with nine point advantage over a generic Democrat among white middle-class voters by the first week. In. August. Biden claimed an eight point advantage over trump normally, a successful nationwide Republican campaign is winning a majority of middle-class voters driven by winning White Middle Class voters by twenty points Republican pollster Ed Goya's rights for many of the reluctant trump supporters who were willing to put up with his persona in exchange for economic prosperity. The current economic climate no longer upholds this bargain if that sentiment hold. Steady. It could mean a disaster for both trump and other Republican candidates lower down the ballot. Those middle class voters have been the GOP's insurance policy against rock ribbed support among black voters for Democrats with the electorate expanding the vote mail options and a new energy on the left over civil rights. Renaissance Republicans may need more than a phantom tax cut for the middle class to hold the line.

President Donald Trump White Middle Class White House Hillary Clinton GOP Philip Elliott president Biden Town University Institute of P Ed Goya one hundred thousand dollars fifty nine percent forty nine percent fifty six percent forty six percent
Early Numbers Suggest Biden Did Little to Win Back Democratic Defectors

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06:38 min | 3 weeks ago

Early Numbers Suggest Biden Did Little to Win Back Democratic Defectors

"Presented by raytheon technologies our nearly two hundred thousand engineers researchers and people with purpose are building the future today. We're pushing the limits of known science to go deeper into space advance aviation and build smarter defense systems that protect all of us here at home. That's the future of aerospace and defense learn more at rtx dot com. Early numbers suggest biden did little to win back. Democratic defectors by philip elliott at roughly. This time for years ago we political nerds were reeling at the unexpected election. A first time candidate whose previous credits included beauty pageant judge reality show producer and real estate hype man how we all marveled had this happened armed with maps and the election results. We settled on a novel thesis. Donald trump had prevailed because he had strategically appealed away counties that had backed democratic candidate barack obama in two thousand eight twenty twelve thus the term pivot counties was born as a way to explain these democratic defectors. Now as we watched the vote speed tallied in every last county in our electoral map colored red or blue. these pivot counties are getting another. Look the joe. Biden regain these crucial counties. That made obama a two-term president building on publicly available returns which are far from final and research from four years ago. The dc brief ransom very basic excel formulas. The early data say no while there are still many votes outstanding end. Final results are a ways off. What we know is this in. The two hundred six counties that voted for obama in two thousand eight obama in two thousand twelve and trump in two thousand sixteen. The incumbent president carried one hundred seventy nine of them biden reclaimed. Just twenty two another five have yet to report reliable data rendering a verdict impossible for years ago. According to ballot pedia calculations obama carried the pivot counties by an average of twelve percentage points trump for years later swung those counties by twenty percentage points to enjoy an average eight percentage point lead and this year. He appears to have increased his margins enjoying an average thirteen percentage point advantage according to our back of the napkin excelling. So what explains this wild thirty. Three percentage points swing between twenty twelve and twenty twenty trump really that good at connecting with voters in places like vigo county indiana that he tripled the intensity of support from four years ago were democratic. Defectors that persuadable. A couple of factors may be in play obama to be. Frank is a once in a generation politician. His skills at winning over even his sharpest political opponents are as formidable as they are legendary. I remember watching him. Go into deep red counties. During a sweltering summer two thousand eight bus tour through the midwest and witness skepticism melt as quickly as the ice in the water coolers another factor is that voters in those counties may have been sour on anyone who reeked of washington. Obama had spent again to be frank very little time in the us capital when he ran the first time. A first time senator. He hadn't yet come to embody what trump a decade later would call the swamp and contrast obama's republican opponent john mccain was at the time a twenty two year member of the most elite fraternity in washington the senate and at one point the most frequently booked guests own that most washington insider show meet the press for years later. Mitt romney. A polished professional politician hardly solved the problem. Obama had the trappings of the presidency but romney toured foreclosure plagued neighborhoods near las vegas in skinny jeans and trump. These democratic defectors found the ultimate outsider. No one will accuse trump being too polished to scripted. He's there to all the grievances of places like youngstown. Ohio where mahoning county went. Read this year for the first time since nineteen seventy-two voters there supported obama's two thousand eight run by twenty. Six percentage points narrowly siding with hillary clinton for years then backed trump by two points. This week that is a stunning twenty. Eight percentage points swing and a little more than a decade. For years ago. I listened to a lot of very smart people argue. That sexism was to blame for the twenty. Sixteen clinton peel off among democratic defectors. It made sense. Many voters in these counties wouldn't consider themselves particularly woke a lot of fallen on hard times especially those in the upper midwest. Cities like kenosha wisconsin where manufacturing has all but evaporated. It was easy for voters to say they had tried obama at and seen benefit. And now we're willing to go all in with the loud shoot from the hip guy who seemed to have the elixir. For all that ails their decades long decay. the smooth and easy answers proved irresistible. But there's a problem with this. Logic namely trump has had four years and he has yet to bring back jobs to these counties and the coronavirus pandemic has done little to boost confidence in his ability to manage a country of this size through a legitimate crisis. So why did millions of these democratic defectors not only stick with trump but double down on their support. It's too early to tell but watch this space. Political scientists armchair strategists and eventually when the dust settles and they get a chance to eat a decent meal and sleep for eighteen hours. The actual political pros will dive into the data for now. It's worth flagging that you readers should be looking around your communities for clues you probably can spot the trend lines among your neighbors far better than i or anyone else in washington can. My inbox is open at philip. Dot elliott at time dot com.

obama raytheon technologies philip elliott biden four years two thousand eight bus Donald trump twenty two year washington vigo county Biden midwest meet the press mahoning county indiana john mccain Frank Mitt romney youngstown romney
Despite Debacle, Bidens Team Says the V.P. Will Debate Trump Again

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05:02 min | 2 months ago

Despite Debacle, Bidens Team Says the V.P. Will Debate Trump Again

"Brought to you by lucky charms magical mission enjoy a new addition to family time with the leprechauns interactive adventure where you'll be jumping, running and singing to restore magic in the eight charm lands available on your smart speaker just say open lucky charms, magical mission or search for it wherever you listen to podcasts. Despite debacle Biden's team says the VP will debate trump again by Philip Elliott. Typically after a presidential debate, the top staffers and high profile supporters of the nominees engage in one of the more absurd practices in modern politics, they work the refs or try to shape the coverage spinning the reporters who will write the first draft of that night's history. But the pandemic nixed the spin room for last night's clash and send us all dialing into post debate conference calls during normal times debates wrap up and volunteers marched into the area. Where journalists have set up their workstations, these civic minded neighbors or children of VIP donors and super activists as is often the case are handed signs announcing the names of the designated campaign representatives reporters crowd around in a free for all and depending on how they're Ping in between campaigns. Ask some variation of the same obvious question repeatedly to work campaign hands who in turn dutifully repeat a variation of talking point that there is was the winning team. Now, we press one on our touch screens to ask a question. It was just a small reminder that what we all watched last night was like nothing I've ever seen or imagined as much as the pandemic, the footprint of the first presidential debate of the twenty twenty race, the incumbent shattered it the evening tested my own understanding of Bananas President Donald, trump interrupted vice president, Joe, Biden. So often that I was waiting for the moderator Fox. News is Chris Wallace to threaten to turn this car around if the fighting didn't stop trump was. Indifferent to the facts and still pressed forward as though nothing mattered. It was a shock to witness just how far expectations and scandal have moved the norms of debate. I, remember in two thousand four when an ill steamed jacket gave conspiracy theorists permission to allege President George W. Bush was wearing a wireless transmitter and being fed answers during one debate last night. The president of the United States was telling white supremacist groups to stand by if the results from November third aren't to trump's liking. This wasn't an evolution of debates. It was a mutation. But at least one thing remains the same reporters still get to ask the big question of these campaign reps and there was one enormous query hanging in the air after last night and night in which trump was. So belligerent that Biden eventually called the sitting president a clown three times on the post-debate call with the Biden team reporters brought. The most obvious question will the former vp a man who so tries to follow the rules of the game that he cut himself off for time and during his primaries put himself through that again. We are going to the debates guys. Biden's exasperated deputy campaign manager Kate betting field told reporters in the eleven pm hour. But when asked why the campaign would agree to another three hours of such a debacle? She said those conversations are always ongoing with debate organizers about remedies for continued bellicosity from trump. By mid-day Wednesday, the debate organizers publicly acknowledged the need for better guardrails against scofflaw treatment of the rules no details were immediately available, but it was clear that a repeat of the night before was not an option very little of the onstage exercise determines any part of what the American people ultimately render as their verdict on the debates winner. The offstage spin probably matters even less, but there are cornerstones to what campaigns should feel like this. Wasn't it trump repeatedly spoke over Biden made assertions designed to cut deep personally four Biden and generally commandeered the conversation with innuendo falsehoods and conspiracy theories. Biden during debate prep practiced what to confront in the moment and what to trust to the fact checkers. Later, Biden was judicious in his use of real-time rulings, not wanting to miss the opportunity to make the affirmative case for Biden presidency by spending all of his time setting the record straight trump tried for the opposite tactic seemingly determined to bulldoze Biden from the start. It was in the words of CNN's Jake tapper a hot mess inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck that was the worst debate I have ever seen. In fact, it wasn't even a debate it was a disgrace. Biden's allies did nothing to refute that. What had just transpired was pretty terrible. Instead Biden's press secretary. TJ Duck low deployed some of his dry gallows humor as he wrapped up the spin call with reporters as the clock ticked towards midnight. Sorry we can't see you in person he said before a quick turn maybe not that sorry.

Biden trump vice president President George W. Bush VP Philip Elliott President Chris Wallace vp TJ Duck United States Jake tapper CNN press secretary Kate Donald Joe three hours