35 Burst results for "Peterson Institute"

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:06 min | 6 d ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Wall Street week. I'm David Weston. We spend a lot of time on Wall Street. We're talking about higher interest rates. And are they here to stay? How do we adjust to that possibility? Some people suggest maybe that's not the right thing to be looking at, that the higher interest rates may be temporary. There were the longer term, we will have lower rates. One of those who is asking that question and talking about the possible consequences is doctor Olivia Blanchard. He is the former chief economist for the IMF and he has written a book about this question, which is fiscal policy with low interest rates. So doctor Walsh, thank you so much for being with us really appreciate it. Why is it that you think we may be on a long-term cycle of low interest rates? We're continuing this cycle. We've seen in the past, but you think it may continue into the future. Yes, I think what we're seeing is a blip and due to the need to fight information. So for the moment, we're all obsessed with high rates of other incredibly high but higher than they were. I think this will come to an end. I think we'll basically win the fight against inflation, probably within a year or two. And then we'll go back to something a bit like where we were before COVID before the inflation. And before the inflation, when it happened for the best of 35 years, is that interest rates, what we call real interest rates corrected for inflation. Instead of declined in the U.S. in Europe and Japan, we were in the world. And my sense is we probably going to go back to something like this. I think the trend preview information episode was a very strong trend. I see no particular reason for it reversing. So I think we'll go back to something not unlike where we were in 2019, which means very low rates. We already close to zero. Lower than growth rates. And if I'm right, then this has very substantial implications for my click policy in general, but fiscal policy in particular, which is what my book is about. Okay, doctor bell John, thank you so much for being with us. Once again, this is a terrific book I really recommend it to everybody. It's fiscal policy under low interest rates. That's doctor Olivia Blanchard of the Peterson institute for international economics

David Weston Olivia Blanchard IMF Walsh Japan bell John Europe U.S. Peterson institute for interna
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:04 min | Last month

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe we judge that interest rates we still have to rise significantly at a steady pace. We expect inflation to start falling more rapidly, probably from the late spring onwards. But there is a risk that it won't happen in that way. Things aren't what can properly in the UK. The question for the government isn't only how do you resolve these disputes. But how do you get Britain working properly again? Bloomberg daybreak, Europe, on Bloomberg radio. It is 7 30 a.m. in London, good morning to you if you're just joining us, this is Bloomberg daybreak Europe. I'm Stephen Carroll on the markets. Today we are seeing the hindsight moving higher in Hong Kong, generally the way Asian shares are trending slightly lower MSC I specific index as a tenth of 1% weaker this morning. You're a stocks 50 futures flat to the downside now. Clung back some of the earlier losses, so we are seeing perhaps as having a little more flat into the open and half an hour's time, S&P many future is now three tenths of 1% higher, so we're seeing that strength also playing out in U.S. futures as well on the European barn space and not a huge movement in bond yields today, but of course this is something we saw a huge sell off yesterday. The German ten year yield holding steady at 2.51% this morning, the Italian ten year yield 4.61%, that's holding steady as well. Of course, we have seen a big jump in Australian bond yields overnight linked to the China reopening story as, of course, markets are worried about the inflationary impact that might have. So those are your markets. Let's get to our top stories. The United States is said to be considering new precautions for travelers coming from China as Beijing abandons its COVID zero policy and prepares to reopen borders in early January. Bloomberg's Brian Curtis reports from Hong Kong. China is experiencing the world's largest COVID-19 outbreak, raising concerns among public health officials worldwide. According to estimates from the government's top health authority, almost 37 million people may have been infected with the virus on a single day last week. Yesterday, Japan announced steps to acquiring a negative COVID-19 test upon arrival after Beijing said it no longer would subject inbound travelers to quarantine from January 8th. U.S. officials are now understood to be weighing similar steps amid growing questions over the transparency of data from China on the spread of the virus. In Hong Kong, Brian Curtis, Bloomberg, daybreak, Europe. Tesla's tumble has accelerated with the stock falling by 11% yesterday on Wall Street. It's now on the longest losing streak since 2018 and down from 70% in 2022. The latest plunge follows a report, the company plans to temporarily halt production at its Shanghai factory, the three Kindle fears about the demand for its cars, Tesla has now fallen out of the top ten most valuable companies on the S&P 500. Former Bank of England policymaker Adam posen says that U.S. inflation will drop to around 3% by the end of 2023. President told Bloomberg that the pace of price rises is already slowing due to improvements in the supply chain. Wage inflation out of step with productivity growth is the big trend driver, even if it's lower than the rate of actual inflation, meaning a lot of workers are seeing real wage declines. That's ultimately where you see this going on. That's not imposing. He's now president of the Peterson institute for international economics in November, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation the personal consumption expenditure index was running at 4.7%. Transport officials in the United States are investigating the extraordinary number of flight cancellations by Southwest Airlines over recent days. The low cost carrier scrapped thousands of flights affecting tens of thousands of passengers in what's expected to go down as one of the worst airline meltdowns in U.S. history. Transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg says the weather is no excuse. It's a shocking and unacceptable level of disruption, combined with passengers being unable to get anybody on the phone to help them. And the airline indicating that they're actually not able to fully keep track of where their own flight crews are. President Biden tweeted that his administration is working to hold airlines accountable as calls for compensation grow, city analysts estimate the chaos could shave three to 5% from southwest's fourth quarter earnings. And Steve Mnuchin and Mike Pompeo briefly discussed removing president Trump using the Twenty-fifth Amendment after the attack on the capital on January 6th last year, but according to a transcript of the nation's testimony to the House committee, the pair rejected the idea, the amendment allows for the vice president to assume the powers of the presidency if the president himself is unable to perform his duties. So those are our top stories on the program this morning coming up next. We're going to be bringing you our interview with the CEO of advertising giant Mark Reed, WPP, he's the CEO of. He's been speaking to Francis LaCroix at his career and the future of the advertising business. It's the latest leaders with LaCroix will bring that to you next. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg surveillance podcast, a conversation with Matt maley, Miller tayback chief market strategist. Even though people have become much more bearish, they're talking about things dipping further. They think, well, don't worry by the end of the year, it'll be fine. I'm a little concerned about that. I mean, I do think the worst, I mean, what won't happen by the end of the year to have somewhere in the middle of the year, but the biggest problem I think that we face is that whenever the market gets to an extremely overvalued level, like it did at the end of 2021, this time last year. The bear market always lasts longer than just a year or so. It's usually the last 18 months or even a little bit longer. That's number one. Number two is that the valuation levels. I mean, again, when you get to extreme valuation levels that we have, it takes a lot bigger decline for the market to get back in line with what would be a natural level of evaluations. But I don't think that's the case yet. Give us a number. Yeah, what is fair value in a world of now four and a half percent interest rates instead of zero? Well, that's the thing. I mean, we had to give you a number. I at least 3500, and that's assuming we don't have a recession. That's just something we don't get a decline in earnings in 2022. And every bear markets in every recession since World War II has given us every recession not every bear market. But every recession since World War II has a decline in earnings. So if we have a decline in the next year, that takes us again something below a 3500. I mean, people have to forget that people have to remember, I'm sorry that when you don't have zero interest rates and you don't have QE, you don't have 18 to 20 times forward earnings. You have something more like 15 to 16. Catch more of this in other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe to Apple

Brian Curtis U.S. Europe Bloomberg radio Stephen Carroll China Hong Kong Bloomberg Tesla Former Bank of England Adam posen Beijing Peterson institute for interna
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:50 min | Last month

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Peterson institute on Beijing's rapidly spreading COVID outbreak and how it will affect the economy. I think a lot of people on the ground are trying to figure out what to do. Of course, for many people, the illness is not severe, does not require hospitalization. The big wild card is going to be people over the age of 60. Many of whom do not have a third vaccine or third shot. And it's just a gigantic wild card as to how what kind of protection they actually have against this surging virus. As I said, Mary, you really know economics in China, particularly well. What are the possible ramifications for China and the China economy? If in fact, even after let back out of their apartments and their houses, they can't come out because they've gotten infected. Yeah, I mean, it's a tough story. I think, you know, one of the motivating feature of aspects for the Chinese government was to get the economy growing again. The economy had slowed down tremendously. And that's a very difficult balance between public health and economic health. The November numbers are quite start line. They show that the Chinese economy is continued to slow, retail sales in November shrank by 6% compared to a year earlier. Industrial production growth dropped to a 6 month low. Production fell in very important industries, including autos. Electronic devices, chips. So the government had some really stark economic conditions to deal with. Catch more of this and other conversations on today's edition of the balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app Bloomberg dot com and anywhere you

Peterson institute China Chinese government Beijing Mary government
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:40 min | Last month

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"A conversation with Mary lovely of the Peterson institute on Beijing's rapidly spreading COVID outbreak and how it will affect the economy. I think a lot of people on the ground are trying to figure out what to do. Of course, for many people, the illness is not severe, does not require hospitalization. The big wild card is going to be people over the age of 60. Many of whom do not have a third vaccine or third shot. And it's just a gigantic wild card as to how what kind of protection they actually have against the surging virus. As I said, Mary, you really know economics in China, particularly well. What are the possible ramifications for China and the China economy? If in fact, even after let back out of their apartments and their houses, they can't come out because they've gotten infected. Yeah, I mean, it's a tough story. I think one of the motivating feature of aspects for the Chinese government was to get the economy growing again. The economy had slowed down tremendously. And that's a very difficult balance between public health and economic health. The November numbers are quite startling. They show that the Chinese economy is continued to slow, retail sales in November shrank by 6% compared to a year earlier. Industrial production growth dropped to a 6 month low. Production fell in very important industries, including autos. Electronic devices, chips. So the government has some really stark economic conditions

Mary lovely Peterson institute China Beijing Chinese government Mary government
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:39 min | Last month

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Peterson institute on Beijing's rapidly spreading COVID outbreak and how it will affect the economy. I think a lot of people on the ground are trying to figure out what to do. Of course, for many people, the illness is not severe, does not require hospitalization. The big wild card is going to be people over the age of 60. Many of whom do not have a third vaccine or third shot. And it's just a gigantic wild card as to how what kind of protection they actually have against this surging virus. As I said, Mary, you really know economics in China, particularly well. One of the possible ramifications for China and the China economy. If in fact, even after let back out of their apartments and their houses, they can't come out because they've gotten infected. Yeah, I mean, it's a tough story. I think, you know, one of the motivating aspects for the Chinese government was to get the economy growing again. The economy had slowed down tremendously. And that's a very difficult balance between public health and economic health. The November numbers are quite startling. They show that the Chinese economy is continued to slow, retail sales in November shrank by 6% compared to a year earlier. Industrial production growth dropped to a 6 month low. Production fell in very important industries, including autos, electronic devices, chips. So the government has some really stark economic conditions

Peterson institute China Beijing Chinese government Mary government
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:39 min | Last month

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The Peterson institute on Beijing's rapidly spreading COVID outbreak and how it will affect the economy. I think a lot of people on the ground are trying to figure out what to do. Of course, for many people the illness is not severe, does not require hospitalization. The big wild card is going to be people over the age of 60. Many of whom do not have a third vaccine or third shot. And it's just a gigantic wild card as to how what kind of protection they actually have against this surging virus. As I said, Mary, you really know economics in China, particularly well. What are the possible ramifications for China and the China economy? If in fact, even after let back out of their apartments in their houses, they can't come out because they've gotten infected. Yeah, I mean, it's a tough story. I think, you know, one of the motivating aspects for the Chinese government was to get the economy growing again. The economy had slowed down tremendously. And that's a very difficult balance between public health and economic health. The November numbers are quite startling. They show that the Chinese economy is continued to slow, retail sales in November shrank by 6% compared to a year earlier. Industrial production growth dropped to a 6 month low. Production fell in very important industries, including autos, electronic devices, chips. So the government has some really stark economic conditions to

Peterson institute China Beijing Chinese government Mary government
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:53 min | Last month

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"By more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Nancy Lyons, this is Bloomberg. On the latest edition of the balance of our podcast, a conversation with Mary lovely of the Peterson institute on Beijing's rapidly spreading COVID outbreak and how it will affect the economy. I think a lot of people on the ground are trying to figure out what to do. Of course, for many people the illness is not severe, does not require hospitalization. The big wild card is going to be people over the age of 60. Many of whom do not have a third vaccine or third shot. And it's just a gigantic wild card as to how what kind of protection they actually have against the surging virus. As I said, Mary, you really know economics in China, particularly well. What are the possible ramifications for China and the China economy? If in fact, even after let back out of their apartments and their houses, they can't come out because they've gotten infected. Yeah, I mean, it's a tough story. I think, you know, one of the motivating feature aspects for the Chinese government was to get the economy growing again. The economy had slowed down tremendously. And that's a very difficult balance between public health and economic health. The November numbers are quite startling. They show that the Chinese economy is continued to slow, retail sales in November strength by 6% compared to a year earlier. Industrial production growth dropped to a 6 month low. Production fell in very important industries, including autos. Electronic devices, chips. So the government has some really stark economic conditions

Nancy Lyons Mary lovely Peterson institute China Bloomberg Beijing Chinese government Mary government
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:42 min | Last month

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Our podcast, a conversation with Mary lovely of the Peterson institute on Beijing's rapidly spreading COVID outbreak and how it will affect the economy. I think a lot of people on the ground are trying to figure out what to do. Of course, for many people, the illness is not severe, does not require hospitalization. The big wild card is going to be people over the age of 60. Many of whom do not have a third vaccine or third shot. And it's just a gigantic wild card as to how what kind of protection they actually have against the surging virus. As I said, Mary, you really know economics in China, particularly well. One of the possible ramifications for China and the China economy. If in fact, even after let back out of their apartments and their houses, they can't come out because they've gotten infected. Yeah, I mean, it's a tough story. I think, you know, one of the motivating feature of aspects for the Chinese government was to get the economy growing again. The economy had slowed down tremendously. And that's a very difficult balance between public health and economic health. The November numbers are quite startling. They show that the Chinese economy is continued to slow, retail sales in November shrank by 6% compared to a year earlier. Industrial production growth dropped to a 6 month low. Production fell in very important industries, including autos, electronic devices, chips. So the government has some really stark economic conditions to

Mary lovely Peterson institute China Beijing Chinese government Mary government
"peterson institute" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:38 min | 3 months ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

"In Baltimore, I'm Amy Scott in for Kai riz Dahl. It is Thursday, November 10th, good to have you with us. Okay, prices are still rising overall, yes. But the consumer price index out today is better than expected. The annual inflation rate, 7.7% last month is the smallest increase we've seen since January, some big categories, fruits and vegetables, dairy, apparel, and airline fares fell. And all this suggests those higher interest rates may be starting to work. Marketplace is sabri benicar fills us in. The level of inflation in October was mildly good news. We're starting to see the initial signs of a slowdown and inflationary dynamics. Gregory daco is chief economist at Ernst and young. Goods prices, not counting food and energy, fell four tenths of a percent, which is tied for the largest contraction outside of a recession since the early 1970s. Yes, if you measure year over year, goods prices are still up 5%, but that's a lot better than the 12% they were up earlier this year. Eric winograd is chief U.S. economist at alliance Bernstein. I think we should take some comfort from the idea that the supply chain is healing and is healing quite rapidly. Used car prices drop sharply and have been falling consistently since July. Food prices still rising, but more slowly than they have in months. The price of services seasonally adjusted actually fell in October. On the other hand, you never want to put much weight on one month of inflation. Alan deck Meister is an economist at UBS. A lot of people got really excited about the slowing back in March. A lot of people got excited about the slowing in July. And neither of those turned out to be a sustainable slowing. That Meister says a lot of categories whose prices are driven by wages, think haircuts or restaurants, prices there are not slowing down. That said, he is optimistic that we are past the inflation peak finally. Joe gagnon is at the Peterson institute and says this would mean the fed could soften its interest rate hikes. Another month like this would certainly support us slow down to 50 basis points. Or even 25 pretty soon. Still he says, on inflation, there is a long way to go. In New York, I'm Sabrina shore for marketplace. Wall Street was thinking more short term today. Happy would be an understatement. We'll have the details

Amy Scott Kai riz Dahl sabri benicar Gregory daco Eric winograd alliance Bernstein Baltimore Alan deck Meister Ernst Joe gagnon UBS U.S. Meister Peterson institute fed Sabrina New York
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:35 min | 3 months ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Go outside of your normal zone here, you're an economic policy guru. And this is political, but given where we are and there's virtually, as you said, nothing left of what she campaigned on for prime minister. Can she keep her job? Do you think? I think it's very doubtful in my opinion. But basically, I mean, there was a poll out today in the UK that showed that if there was an election today, the Conservative Party would get one. And I repeat one a single member of the newly elected parliament. So basically, you have a Conservative Party that has to choose between plague or cholera. You know, it can either risk an election right now and maybe get only a few numbers, but yeah, it's plagal color for them. Yeah, it's something to remark about. Okay, thanks so much to Jacob Kierkegaard of the Peterson institute. Coming up, we're going to talk about whether President Biden has to decide on whether to run for a second term with Jonathan Bernstein, a Bloomberg opinion, and this is Bloomberg. Why get your financial news of Asia from some secondhand source? The Asian trading day gets underway. Business news of Asia. Firsthand, direct to you. The regulatory crackdown has been a very big issue in China hero fleet. We do have energy stocks bleeding the nikkei hire Bloomberg daybreak Asia. Tonight at 6 eastern. China has vowed to consolidate the country's EV industry. On Bloomberg radio, the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com. This is the story

Conservative Party Jacob Kierkegaard President Biden Jonathan Bernstein Bloomberg cholera Peterson institute plague Asia UK China
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:37 min | 4 months ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"In academics. What's a single chart our audience needs to know about? Figure number two, figure number two shows the micro financial downside risk at the moment. And when you look at that chart, it's only in acute crisis that that downside risk has been more elevated in the past 20 years. What does that mean for Jerome Powell? Is he central banker to the world then? Well, I am very much in favor of the kind of policies that have been announced by the Federal Reserve, and we think this is the right path going forward. But if they move 75 basis points, whatever it's clearly non linear as we move to neutrality and restriction not to go back to green spanning and measured approach, but are we going to see a more measured major Central Bank not only us but England and particularly ECB? Are they going to be more measured because they're told to be more measured? My expectation is that they will want to see inflation coming down back toward target and at that point it's going to be time to be more measured. So I'm now folks. You get to bias Adrian in trouble. Let's do that. Olivier Blanchard had the courage in these buildings to say we need to consider a 4% run rate on inflation. Adam posing at the Peterson institute says, well, maybe not 4%, but 3% is the end outcome ten years from now, or 15 years from now, we reset from 2% out to some form of inflation of 2.4

Jerome Powell Federal Reserve Central Bank ECB Olivier Blanchard England Adrian Peterson institute Adam
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:32 min | 7 months ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Bloomberg television. Here's francine LaCroix. What our next guest says, he's interested in three key thematic areas, technology, inflation, and the energy transition. Well, we're now joined by Evie hambro. Global head of thematic and sector investing at BlackRock. If you look at the themes and these are longer, more protracted kind of changes in the economy that we'll see. But will they be upended by some of the short term volatility? It's been a very difficult last few months for many of these areas. And I think the last few years has been a pretty consistent source of returns from these themes. At the end of the day, the thematic investing is about backing the growth companies. And we're seeing an enormous de rating of companies that we're delivering that growth, a combination of inflation and interest rate and uncertainties around recession. But when you look at the underlying businesses, these are very long-term trends that are going to support consistent growth through cycles. So you look at something like the energy transition. We all know that we have to move to a lower carbon intense global economy. There isn't a choice around that government have to make that decision. Society wants it regulation once at businesses are moving in that direction. It's going to completely transform the commodity intensity of the global economy. Think about a wind turbine array. It's a hundred times more commodity intensive than a gas turbine for a thermal power plant or something. Here, more conversations like this one on Bloomberg television, streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings. Earnings season is coming. So low park and get to work. There are bargains out there to be at Bloomberg is fastest with the numbers and analysis. Conflicting and complex crosscurrents. Strap yourself in for this earnings season. Bloomberg. The fastest numbers and analysis you trust. You got to take this seriously of market is genuinely very tight. I'm more of the persuasion. You look at the numbers if they don't make sense. Is there something wrong with the numbers? Adam post him there, the Peterson institute, the president, and of course the former Bank of England policy committee member, a special thanks to everyone that was with Tom and I just yesterday, Kate, great roundup of guests down in Washington, D.C., big effort the team to put that together. It was really successful and to go down there and sticking hot 95° or whatever. I think we got to make we got to make it a habit to really get down there more often. Every quarter time I think. Yeah, I think I like that every quarter. Every three months. Hey Adams overlooking The White House and overlooking a nation's politics into the end of 2022, in particularly heating up to 2000 24. His jobs economy this morning will heat up. We begin our coverage here into 12 maybe 11 minutes from now with a frequent guest. We are honored to bring you the former fed governor at boost school of Chicago Randall krasner, where any Adam posing just on looks for a new inflation regime where flat out, we don't get back to 2%. What kind of job economy do we have if we get back and stay at a 3% inflation run rate? Well, obviously the job market is still quite hot, even if the numbers aren't so strong today. The unemployment rate is still under 4%. We've been generating an astonishing number of jobs. So I think the job market probably will weaken, but well, I think it's undoubted undoubtedly the case there will be weakening, but it's still relatively strong. The issue is going to be, what are inflation expectations? Are they entrenched? Will wage demands continue to be high? I look Randy at the linkage here into wages as well. Are we even as Powell talks about a strong economy? Are we anywhere near a wage spiral? I don't think yet. I mean, certainly, people's expectations in the short run are very high for inflation. And they should be because inflation has been extraordinarily high. The key is, will that persist? Will it be over three years or 5 years that even as the economy starts to slow down even as the job market starts to slow down? Do people say, hey, you know, the reason I have a job is not just because I want a job. It's because I want to provide the best possible for my family. And no matter how hard I work, I'm just not getting enough money, so I need more money. That's the psychology that they have to worry about. And that's why they're trying to move so expeditiously now to avoid that happening. Randy, $1 trillion question. What makes this fed pause? Where does that come from? I don't think they're pausing anytime soon, because I think inflation expectations are at the upper end of the ranges where they've been short term Churchill expectations much higher than they have been. I think they want to make sure that they really stomp out the possibility of inflation expectations. Moving up and I think Powell has made it very clear that he's gradually dialed things up soft landing softish landing. Now inflation fighting inflation is our priority, even if that means slow down. So I think it made it pretty clear that it's going to take a lot for them to pause. Randy, when Tom and John were in D.C. yesterday, they talked with Stephanie aronson of brookings, and she was saying the indicator she's looking at isn't jobless claims because if you're starting to see the economy slowing down, it's not that companies are going to start firing people. They're just going to stop hiring people. So you're going to see it in jolts and job openings first. How close are we to that point where companies look around and say, okay, we haven't been able to attract workers. We can't afford to pay them enough to get them in the door. Those jobs are just going away. Well, not clear yet whether the jobs are going away. But we've seen some of that over the last few months. Sometimes the jobs number has actually been a low expectations, but it's not because the job market is weak. It's because people, the firms can't hire people, and they're unwilling to push the wages up enough to get them to come in the door. So I think we'll have to see how things play out over time. But I do think that the job market is going to be is going to be weakening. If we talk about a weakening job market to what extent will the fed tolerate that weakening, what do you think the threshold is between softness and the labor market that the fed wants to see that it's actually trying to achieve and that which causes the fed to second guess itself? Well, I think the key thing that they're going to focus on, I think, is pal has said they really kind of pivoted to focusing on inflation. And so the key thing will be inflation and inflation expectations. They understand that the economy is going to be slowing. And I think this is exactly why they need to be moving so fast now. The unemployment rate is still below 4%. So the political pressure isn't so strong yet on them to slow things down. They're not quite getting the blame for a slowing economy because at least as far as the job market is concerned, it hasn't slowed. So that's why they need to move now. Those consequences will come later. And hopefully they won't have to go too much higher too much later. That economic data is 7 minutes away. We'll get Randy's response to that as soon as that number drops. Mike McKee is going to break it down for us. It's back in New York. He's in the studio. I'm Mike, what are you looking for from that number in about 7 minutes time? Well, the headline number is expected to be two 65, and I think it's going to be an interesting question about what Randy was talking about with the Kayleigh, the idea of whether companies can find workers or not. Anecdotally in the beige book and in the ISM surveys we've heard that it is still tough to get workers at least trained workers for the jobs that are available. So that'll be one interesting thing to watch. And then I'll be paying attention

Bloomberg francine LaCroix Evie hambro Adam post Washington, D.C. Hey Adams boost school of Chicago Randall krasner Randy BlackRock Peterson institute Powell fed Bank of England Tom Stephanie aronson
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:24 min | 10 months ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Catch the program weekdays at 5 p.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio When we turn to the markets now Nathan the selloff and bonds continues this morning In fact the ten year treasury yield is trading at its highest level since 2018 Right now it's at 2.81% Bloomberg cross asset editor Joanna Austin says analysts expect yields to keep rising 2.83% on the ten year treasury that's about where it peaked out today That's where the yield would breach a long-term trendline that started in the early 1980s But a lot of people do expect it to happen right You have JPMorgan asset management MUFG security seeing a move past 3% And GS FM expects it to test 3.5% So we are seeing most people kind of expecting it to continue Bloomberg's Joe went out and reports a Bloomberg gauge measuring total returns and treasuries have slumped almost 8% this year That's on track for its worst annual decline since at least 1973 When consumer price data do later this morning may push shields even higher Karen economists are forecasting an 8.4% annual gain in marches index We get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee It's a week of economic data focused on inflation with today's consumer price index report Well it's hard to call it a highlight The forecast headline would be a scary one indeed the highest inflation since 1982 when the nation's benchmark interest rate was 15% Energy food and housing costs are putting continued pressure on prices while oil prices have fallen a bit in recent days That will show up in the march CPI What higher prices may mean is lower consumer spending on things outside of those three categories will get retail sales figures for march on Thursday Michael McKee Bloomberg daybreak All right Mike thank you as investors brace for the CPI report more predictions of a recession this morning that Peterson institute for international economics says the global economy is set for a step back by the end of the year and recession risks are elevated against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and COVID shutdowns in China The Peterson institute predicts global growth was slow to 3.3% this year and next compared with 5.8% in 2021 Well the recent surge in treasury yields has taken a toll on tech stocks We get that story from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet The NASDAQ 100 stock index dropped 2.4% adding colossus sustained last week that have erased over $1 trillion in market value from the tech heavy benchmark in the past 5 sessions Microsoft was down 3.9% Its worst decline in more than a month chip maker Nvidia sank 5.2% extending losses sustained over the past 5 sessions to 20% the stock has not had a 5 day run this bad since March of 2020 In New York Charlie pallett Bloomberg daybreak Thank you One of the tech stocks not involved in the sell off was Twitter speculation still swirling on the impact Elon Musk may have at the social media company and we get the latest live from Bloomberg's raida young good morning Renee Good morning Karen Now that Elon Musk is no longer accepting a position on Twitter sport he may acquire additional shares of the company Wedbush securities analyst Dan Ives says it's highly likely that Musk takes a more hostile stance toward Twitter and further builds his active stake in the company Musk currently owns 9.2% of Twitter and is its largest individual shareholder And since he's not on the board he's not required to keep his stake below 15% Life in New York I'm renita young Bloomberg daybreak All right we need to thank you It's now 5 O 7 on Wall Street We are at 50° with rain in Central Park and we have an accident under The Bronx band edge of the RFK triborough bridge details coming up in traffic first Michael Barr with more on what's going on in New York and around the world Good morning Michael Good morning Nathan New Jersey regulators approved 7 facilities that already saw medical marijuana to also sell recreational cannabis The specific date wasn't set at the New Jersey cannabis regulatory commission's vote during a remotely L meeting the facilities must still pass a regulatory inspection of their operations and be issued new licenses Retail sales for the general public would start in 13 dispensary's operated by the 7 treatment centers across the state Officials in Philadelphia reinstated the city's indoor mask mandate It takes effect next Monday amid rising COVID infections Philadelphia's health commissioner Cheryl better go I'm announcing that we have reached the threshold for moving out of the all clear COVID response level And into the mask precautions level Simply put that means that we're reintroducing the mask mandate in Philadelphia Commissioner Bengal says the city is averaging a 142 new COVID-19 infections a day The U.S. government ordered all non emergency staff at its Shanghai consulate and their families to leave the Chinese city due to a surge in COVID cases Most of Shanghai's 25 million residents are subject to tight movement restrictions that keep them in their homes making an unable to obtain food or necessities A 23 year old man who falsely accused a black teen of a woman who I should say who falsely accused black teen of stealing her cell phone at a New York City hotel avoids jail after pleading guilty to a hate crime May upon settle then attack the teen at the Arlo Soho hotel in December of 2020 after the hearing defense attorney Paul D'amelio spoke for his client.

Bloomberg Michael McKee Bloomberg radio Joanna Austin MUFG Peterson institute COVID treasury Elon Musk
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:26 min | 10 months ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And this is Bloomberg This is the It can not be business as usual in any for Russia in any of the financial institutions or goal from the outset has been to impose maximum pain on Russia while to the best of our ability shielding the United States and our part is of undue economic harm I am sorry folks for me she will always and forever be cherry cow in the secretary of treasury there managing the message for the Biden administration We welcome all of you on radio and television Lisa Brandon Tom Keene with a very special treat The gentleman from the Massachusetts institute of technology the International Monetary Fund and with Adam posen at the Peterson institute Olivier Blount char joins us this morning professor blond chart Thank you so much for joining us You were just out at Washington University with all of the heritage of Murray white and bomb and all of the optimism of Washington University and growth Can you be optimistic about the American economic experiment at this time It depends which one but the current one when we all thinking about it somehow we're going to basically decrease inflation and get back to a low level in that I'm not as optimistic as most people I still think it's going to be very very tough I think inflation has a lot of momentum I think wage growth is a very tight labor market which is very strong The fed is going to have very hard time slowing down the machine And it has to admit that it has to store the machine a lot And we don't want a recession But there's this term called goal recession I think that this will have to come with some increase in unemployment And maybe some increase in rates beyond what is currently priced in With all of your work in particularly with a fire powered MIT in the 70s you lived the dismal 70s in the debate over trench entrenched inflation You have a chart at Peterson institute of the 7 or 8 year battle to extract ourselves from 1975 Is that our future out to 2030 No it's the past It's not the future But it's a warning You know basically what happened is that the fed just delayed doing what it had to do and Paul Volcker came very late in the game And just went at it that you had to increase raised by 1300 basis points to actually get to where he wanted We're not going to go there That is much smarter facial expectations about his bad But the hope that we can do all this by having rates going to 2.5 or even three I think is a hope not in my book of forecast The hope is underscored by the mystery of some of the tools that the fed is using and I'm faking most importantly if the Federal Reserve's balance sheet possibly reducing it by $1.1 trillion over a year how much do we understand how this reduces inflation Well it's likely to make for long rates a bit higher than they would otherwise be So to the extent that long rates affect activity that's going to basically slow down again the machine And that's the way you reduce inflation is basically about making the labor market less time than it is Now hey exactly how it works I think when it comes to the policy rate I think we have a some understanding of how it affects the economy When it comes to QE or QT now I think we know much less And if I have a further with denounce some path but not feel that I'm committed to it if it turns out to be the stronger weaker than expected Do you think we're heading into a period of time where inflation is structurally higher than it has been over the previous few decades because of de globalization and because of some of the shifts that we've seen that were accelerated during the pandemic No I don't think so I don't think there's any close link to say between productivity growth or globalization or any of these structural elements and the rate of inflation with the economy has The rate of inflation can be anything You just have to have it flat You basically have to apply the economy at full employment but hotter than that Colder than that But you can have any rate of inflation you want Olivier you have lived the vogues and the religions of the moment You and I remember where the world stopped I believe it was on a Thursday afternoon at 3 p.m. and we'd all count M1 M two M three There's been any number of other religions of economics What's the religion right now that we need to be aware of that we need to fear well I was never kind of in the M1 M two M three religion I always felt that it was a religion and not science I think the way to think about how it could possibly work is to have you look at the yield curve And some of the economic activity depends on the short end of the curve Some of economic activity depends on the long end the mortgage rate And basically the higher yield curve the more tightening I think that if I had to choose one object as opposed to say I'm one of them to whatever I would say just look at the yield curve And the yield curve I think it's telling us weights are going to go up for a while then maybe they'll come down a bit at least in adjusted for inflation And I think that's that's the tool that the fed has In the old days it only played in the short end Now it plays all the way through the yield curve but that's the object I think we have to look at What's the tool of real yield Olivier And I talk about this as the real yields the inflation adjusted yield on ten year treasuries moves to the highest The least negative I should say going back to march of 2020 Yes I mean you have to realize that we're still in an era of very very low real rates And the short end of the yield curve real rates are very large negative and the long end are less negative than they used to I think they are getting closer to zero I think that's what's needed to get the economy going in the long run We don't exactly know what the long run equilibrium rate if you want to call it this way is but it's far beyond zero at this point So if we were if we are cruising along with no more inflation than target then I would say zero is probably the right number But we have before we get there we have to get inflation down So we have to go above zero in terms of real rates Olivia we've got to leave it there Thank you so much Really looking forward to your work with the Peterson institute particularly on the new inflation level Professor Blanchard of course always and forever with MIT Lisa did you see there on M1 M two M three I believe Blanchard of MIT He just flat out trashed your Chicago He just tore to shreds The Chicago of the 70s there I didn't really hear the incredible animosity and drama but let's go there Just absolutely riveting The critique Honestly though his points are really well taken And the point on real yield I want to pick up on that that idea in a perfect world of equilibrium It would be zero right There should be a baseline understanding that yields in their absolute represent some sort of long-term inflation expectation He thinks they're going to have to go above zero which a lot of people think Lee Farage among them is going to have a real effect on risk assets Out of the great financial crisis Olivier Blanchard folks with some other people including Joseph diggle's lead on the debate of over where the new inflation level is his colleague at imposing his center tendencies we better get used to 3% and not 2% Part of the raging debate that will take to the ECB meeting on April 14th and on to May 4th through the fed all that wraps around where we are Futures at negative 8 the VIC-20 two.

fed Biden administration Lisa Brandon Tom Keene Massachusetts institute of tec Adam posen Olivier Blount char Murray white Washington University Peterson institute of the Peterson institute Russia Paul Volcker Olivier treasury United States Blanchard MIT Lisa Chicago
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:52 min | 1 year ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm David Weston Markets are still absorbing the sky high inflation numbers from last week And anticipating how the fed is likely to react for his analysis of where we are Welcome now Adam posen He's president of the Peterson institute for international economics So doctor posen thank you so much Always love having you here I think it's not exaggeration sky high for high as some 40 years I think inflation numbers last week what should the fed do I got to get on with it They took a reasonable gamble in my opinion David which was that since the ten year bond and long-term inflation expectations seemed stable They would push the economy as far as it could go But now it's clear they got to play catch up The question they're having to debate is not just when they start or how fast they move But how much they have to move and total what they central makers call the terminal rate what they're getting to And that's where they're still in So let's talk about that just a little bit because it seems to me you've been a central banker when you were with the BOE but how does it work Because on the one hand they got to get going at the same time they don't want to startle the markets presumably I mean let's talk about rate hikes in between meetings Let's talk about 50 basis points within 25 How do they strike that balance that doing it fast enough and enough of it but not really freaking people out The straightforward answer is communication which J Powell of chair Powell and the team I think of late have been doing very good job I mean if you look at how far market expectations have moved based on fed comments basically since Thanksgiving it's a long way And it's happened with a little bit of a correction stock market which may have been associated with nothing to do with this So I think they're doing a fine job I think there's nothing that says they can't move fast As long as they tell people So there's phrases out there like if the market's giving them 50 take it I think doing a move between meetings would be a mistake I think that is something you say for when there's an imminent financial crisis But I think 50 or 25 in the next meeting and saying that they're going to keep going for a few meetings is perfectly doable So Adam would you say they should get on with it You've been saying that for a while actually At the same time we hear from chair Powell and others There is a lag between monetary policy action on the one hand and real affecting the economy Sometimes people say it's as much as a year Is it likely they would take that long before inflation really responded to whatever the fed does Well I think there's two things that are going to make it a little easier than that The first point is that there's a bunch of things that are going to take inflation down from the 7 7 and a half percent to probably below 5 without even the fed had to act or the fed to actually have an effect I mean there are except for semiconductors there are supplies coming back online There's what you've talked about with me and other guests and sort of bullwhip or ketchup bottle effect that we're going to suddenly have a lot more supply And you're seeing that in some of the components of inflation So there'll be some downward pressure even before the feds have impact But the second thing is that what really matters again isn't the inflation itself this year It's the path that it's on and whether people believe it's going to be coming down And so if they start down this path and then say the ten year not only goes down a bit or that the yield curve flattens out then it's okay Then if it takes a year and a half two years to get inflation back down the target that's okay And we've had any number of economists on who say it is very difficult to do what the fed is doing right now In part just based on history The number of times the fed is really height rates in order to get inflation under control And not going to recession are few and far between since World War II What is the likelihood of a policy mistake in your judgment right now Well.

David Weston fed Adam posen Peterson institute for interna J Powell chair Powell BOE David Powell Adam
"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:58 min | 1 year ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"It's primarily a matter of expectations I mean we're not in the 1970s We don't have indexation of many government programs We don't have wage indexation We don't have very strong unions We do there's a lot of debate about how much pricing power large companies have in this economy But that's more about the long-term dynamism of the economy than about inflation So there's a lot of things that suggest the only way inflation gets entrenched is if expectations get out of whack I want to stress though that there's a difference between persistent and entrenched So as you know David I've been arguing that people like to be able to turn away summers for an arguing more strongly that inflation was going to be higher and last longer than the fin and many others were forecasting That doesn't mean I think it's eroding the long-term anchoring it doesn't mean I think it's awkward and spiral from here necessarily But it means that I do think we're going to be well into 2023 before inflation returns sustainably to target levels Have we inverted the paradigm if I could put it that way Adam for the longest time you and I were talking you say part of the problem is you're shooting too low on the explosion expectations You're saying 2% you should take it to three three and a half maybe even above that At this point do we need to turn that around and say no no no we don't want three or three and a half percent We're going to get back down to two I think we still would want that to be perfectly honest And that's an unpopular position now but I think it's still the right thing if the soft landing could land us at 3% and leave it there roughly I think we would be better off going into the next recession whenever it comes I think we would be better off with the labor market adjustments that are on the way But the fact is and this is where the hawks have had a point The unpopularity of inflation deeply felt and expressed by people in working class jobs and lower income jobs is an important thing And the way that people reacted to the inflation we've had I think is something the fed has to take into account They're there to make the choice even when it's unpopular But the fact that people lower income people have reacted the way they have to inflation even when it's the first inflation and forever and even when it is accompanied by wage growth is a message the federalist Is there anything at this point that the administration can or should do or perhaps not do Should they just sit in their hands fiscally right now given where we are I think that would be wise I mean obviously if they were still pumping in fiscal stimulus the way they did in the first quarter of 2021 they would have to lean back on that But as your viewers well know and you've covered the actual fiscal state of now the stimulus is in reverse has been since roughly midyear 2021 and they don't build back better if I pass this is a very small thing in short term So it wouldn't worry about that But they shouldn't be doing any more short term status Now that that's already the case I think the biggest thing the administration can do is manage expectations of contribute to the fence manager expectations It should be honest and forthright inflation is unlikely to come down very quickly They should be honest and forthright that the fed is going to have to tighten and they support that And they should be honest and forthright that inflation in part is because the economy overheats They don't have to say that American rescue plan was a mistake They don't have to again They should not say that they don't want to do investment but they should recognize reality and have forecasts that are in line with reality If it turns out inflation falls faster they can declare victory Okay it's always so helpful to have you with us Thank you That is Adam posen He is president of the Peterson institute Coming up former.

Adam David hawks fed Adam posen Peterson institute
"peterson institute" Discussed on The President's Inbox

The President's Inbox

01:31 min | 1 year ago

"peterson institute" Discussed on The President's Inbox

"Were serving in our fiscal discussion. We have to move from talking about deficits and debt to talking about investments and interest rates. We have to be talking about actual bates of which programs are gonna pay off in which not and that's much more important than some arbitrary number about the deficit or the debt at any given time as recent events on that note. Close up the president's inbox this week. I guess has been adam. Posing president of the peterson institute for international economics. I highly recommend that you read his article in the may june issue of foreign affairs entitled the price of the style show america's self-defeating economic retreat adam. I could go on asking you questions. Have to bring it to an end the thank you for enjoyable and illuminating conversation. Thank you so much jim. I'm really proud to be on the presence in boxes be publishing foreign affairs. I appreciate it. Please describe to the presence. Inbox apple podcast spotify. Wherever you listen in levers review they help us get noticed. It improved the show as always opinions expressed in the presence inbox solely those of the host or guests not far which takes not institutional positions on matters of policy. Today's episode was produced by zoe. Call this was senior producer. Jeremy sherwood. Zoe also did double duty as a recording engineer. Thank you so special. Thanks tamara gach for her assistance. This jim limbs egg. Thanks for listening..

peterson institute for interna adam america jim Jeremy sherwood apple zoe Zoe tamara gach
More Than 4.93 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

The Indicator from Planet Money

01:31 min | 1 year ago

More Than 4.93 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

"Host of trade talks podcast. At the peterson institute. It's been wild. There's been a lot of international news. So i'm very curious to hear about your indicator of the week so my indicator of the week is about vaccines and it's five billion. Okay and five. Billion is five billion doses. And that's about where we are at the moment in terms of how many have been administered globally around the world of the world's population is that good or bad. Or what is your take on this indicator so it's both good and bad. I mean it's amazing right so if you think back to mid december twenty twenty we didn't have any cova doses being administered yet so in kind of eight short months we've gone from zero to five billion. The bad though is is probably twofold one is we have seven eight billion people around the world all of whom need to receive this in most of the vaccines that are being given required a two dose regimen. So that means we need fourteen billion doses so at a minimal level work on a nine billion doses short of getting the world vaccinated and then we get news like this week that all of a it seems like folks might need boosters and so now it's not going to be a two dose regimen. It's going to be at least the three dose regimen and so now we don't need fourteen billion doses we might need twenty one billion doses and so the goal posts seemed to be moving as well. So we're making progress but the finish line seems to be getting farther and farther

Peterson Institute
Child Care Effect On Unemployment?

The Dan Bongino Show

00:40 sec | 1 year ago

Child Care Effect On Unemployment?

"And the new lie is it's definitely childcare. Here. It is, while Street Journal editorial board the other day I've been trying to get through this story seriously for three days now it's called the childcare excuse for unfilled jobs. So you would think they had some data on that the left when they said child care was the reason nobody was going back to work. They don't Here's a quote the Peterson Institute for International Economics on Monday. Released. The study on parents in the workforce told Childcare was a problem. It would affect parents, right Study was lead by former Obama administration economist Jason Furman. Studies suggest that child care isn't the main factor keeping workers at home or even a significant one.

Street Journal Peterson Institute For Interna Obama Administration Jason Furman
A Climate Bomb in the Amazon

Why It Matters

04:54 min | 2 years ago

A Climate Bomb in the Amazon

"We read about fires in the amazon frequently. So how are they started. Are they sorta like the california wildfires or is it something completely different so actually quite different from wildfires in other parts of the world because the rain is wet. This is dr. Tom lovejoy a senior fellow at the united nations foundation and a professor at george mason university in virginia. He's worked in the amazon. Since nineteen sixty five focusing on scientific research conservation and policy whitening strikes. Don't start fires. In the amazon people start fires and to give you a sense once. Somebody is cut down some forest. They have to wait for five days without a drop of rain before it is dry enough to set fire to get rid of all the stuff that's between the firebrand and turning it into some kind of agricultural project. Nine countries share the amazon but roughly sixty percent of it is within brazil's borders which means they have a lot of control over its fate and today across this vast territory. Small groups of people are intentionally setting fires in order to dry out the land for logging and to clear it for agriculture way of clearing land for whatever activity you want to do is very damaging to the soil. So what happens is that if later you want to reforest that particular patch of land it becomes very hard to do because the soil changes as soon as you clear it out because it's now sustaining a different kind of environment which is not rainforest like and then you can't really grow a rainforest back in that sort of setting. This is monica to bowl. A senior fellow at the peterson institute for international economics and a professor at the school of advanced international studies at johns hopkins university. People refer to amazon a lot as the lungs of the world. But that's not really what the ham was on is what the amazon does is that it keeps a lot of greenhouse gases from getting into the atmosphere. So it's not bad. The forest breathes for the world. It's that once. The forest is standing all of those greenhouse gases which are in the soil there kept. They're they're not released into the atmosphere and as soon as you start cutting down the forest. Those greenhouse gases start to go into the atmosphere started to be released. It's sort of like a climate bomb. And as soon as you start cutting down the rain forest. Bob bob is released. So how big is that. Carbon bomb really big. Scientists estimate that the amazon stores sixty to eighty billion tons of carbon or roughly twice the total amount released from fossil fuels in twenty eighteen worldwide. Losing the amazon would accelerate warming with harmful impacts felt around the world. The other issue is these hydrological patterns so when we say that we're referring to the rain cycles and it's not just local. Because given the size of the amazon again it creates a micro micro-climate but a sort of macro climate within the whole of the south american region even affecting a bit of central america as well given that the amazon is so far north. And so what happens. Is that the rain cycle patterns as you cut down the forest. They change and sometimes they change really dramatically to the point where you destroy people's lives because they can no longer grow the crops that they used to grow because the rain cycles are completely different. That has already happened. In many parts of south america that have felt this direct impact and this is only going to get worse if deforestation continues. Hydrology is the study of the movement and distribution of water because the amazon is so large and so wet. It's hydrology has a huge effect. It supplies water to almost every country. In south america and in fact according to nasa deforestation has already been linked to reduce rainfall in the region and then on top of all that you have the issue of amazon tipping point. So you get to a point. Where if you go beyond that point in terms of deforestation. The rainforest is no longer self sustaining. It's going to turn into savannah. Simply because of the ecological dynamics of how rainforests behave and there's a lot of concern that where the amazon is right now is dangerously close to this tipping point

Amazon Tom Lovejoy United Nations Foundation Peterson Institute For Interna School Of Advanced Internation George Mason University Johns Hopkins University Virginia Bob Bob Brazil California Monica South America America Nasa Savannah
China postpones Ant’s colossal IPO after closed-door talk with Jack Ma

All Things Considered

02:42 min | 2 years ago

China postpones Ant’s colossal IPO after closed-door talk with Jack Ma

"American markets are not, of course, the on ly markets and Chinese investors had been planning something of a celebration this week, the world's biggest initial public offering ever. To be set in Shanghai and Hong Kong, the company going public and I think we mentioned this last week is Ant Financial, a giant in Chinese fintech financial technology. That was the case until this morning. That is Chinese regulators kind of out of nowhere suspended. The I P o not happening at all. Not clear what's going on. But his marketplaces Scott Tongue reports. What we do know is that the Chinese government is still very much in charge of the world's second largest economy. Aunt group is no small insect in the Chinese economy. It's phone APP is used by 700 million people. Martin Short's MPA is with the Peterson Institute for International Economics in China. They don't use credit cards. They link their bank account into this digital wallet, and then they scan barcodes everywhere to pay for things. They can also shop online through it taken by gold and investment products. Get loans get insurance two weeks ago and controlling stake holder Jack Ma blasted Chinese financial regulators for red tape and for not understanding companies like his into many, Jack Ma crossed a line and the government is assumed to have struck back by freezing the AIPO for now. China market analyst Fraser Howie is the author of Red Capitalism. The status pattern made by the party is proud of me. Even though Jack's a member of the party business cannot be devolved from politics in China. Social media in China is now filled with cracks about Aunt's getting crushed in this old movie clip of Jack Ma, playing a kung fu master apologizing to the cops always says The lesson for international investors is beware of the China market in the interference of the state. Imagine, he says, You're like the risk manager at some $100 billion Midwest Pence and fund and last week, someone said, we've got again to China. Look what's happening. You're gonna turn around and say, turn around and say no way. Another cautionary message has to do with Chinese innovation, Martin Zampa says in the US it's normal for a tech CEO to tell Washington bureaucrats to back off. But when Jack Ma says that in China he's put in this place. The pendulum continues to swing towards control and away from the freedom. Which encourages innovation, he says Chinese authorities fear that Aunt group could make borrowing too easy and put the financial system and risk. I'm Scott Tongue for marketplace.

Jack Ma Ant Financial Scott Tongue Chinese Government China Aunt Group Peterson Institute For Interna Fraser Howie Martin Short Shanghai Hong Kong Midwest Pence Martin Zampa Aunt Jack Washington United States
Has Globalization Undermined the American Working Class?

Intelligence Squared U.S. Debates

04:51 min | 2 years ago

Has Globalization Undermined the American Working Class?

"America's working class has been cheated is an assertion that has been getting a lot of currency lately are last presidential election went deep on that claim in both parties by the way and the culprit most often blamed for that. It's that monstrous five syllable word globalization, the philosophy and the practice of free trade which has been great for companies and for shareholders but has had a devastating impact. It is argued on the American working woman and. Man Well Economist do agree that in the past four decades the American working class, which we're defining tonight as people who lack a four year college degree. They have seen flat wages and a steady disappearance of good jobs. But is globalization a main reason that that's happening to those workers and for those workers is globalization entirely bad. Well, we think this has the makings of a debate. So let's have it. Yes or no to this statement globalization. has undermined. America's working. Class I'm John Donavan, and I stand between two teams of experts in this topic who argue for and against this resolution globalization has undermined America's working class as always. Our debate will go in three rounds and then our live audience here at the Saint Regis Hotel and Aspen Colorado where we are appearing in partnership with the Aspen Ideas Festival will choose the winner and as always if all goes well civil discourse, we'll. Also win a resolution once again, globalization has undermined America's Working Class Jared Bernstein you have debated with us before. So welcome back you're a senior fellow at the center on Budget and policy priorities. You were Vice President Joe. Biden's chief economist. The last time you debated with US interestingly Jason Furman who is your opponent at the other table tonight was your debate partner as a team you were formidable formidable I, almost want to use the French pronunciation. Formula, so are you planning to use your insiders knowledge of Jason's debate battles against him to very much am the way to do that with Jason is to make a lot of sports analogies because they repealing confusing. All right. Thank you and I see you detail to Aspen. You were a to aspen well I. Think the guy with the tie is the guy you want to listen to, but I'll let you decide. All right. Thanks very much. Jared Bernstein and can tell us who your partner is. This someone I've known for twenty five years she's a dear friend of mine and I consider her my mentor in this topic feely gentlemen feeling. Theo welcome to intelligence squared your president of the Economic Policy Institute. You've spent two decades as an economist for the AFL CIO, which is America's largest federation of unions. It represents some twelve point, five, million working women and men. You've spent twenty five years working on trade policy. So what got you interested in trade? Well, when I came to Washington in the early nineties I got drawn. INTO THE NAFTA debate the North American Free Trade. Agreement. And I realized pretty early on that. This was not some kind of a dry text book discussion about tariffs but it was a transnational battle over democracy good jobs, workers, rights, and regulation. So I was hooked because a lots at stake a lot is at stake. Okay. Thanks very much thelia once again, team arguing for the motion. And motion again, globalization has undermined America's working class. We have to debaters arguing against it, I Jason Firm. Welcome back to intelligence squared Jason you're a professor of the practice of economic policy at the Harvard Kennedy School you're a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, you were Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama tonight. As we said, you're going to be debating your former colleague Jared Bernstein on the impact of globalization. So is this the first time you to have debated the globalization issue with each other jared and I agree on I'd say about ninety five percent of economic issues and my goal tonight is to bring to one hundred percent. Thanks very much Jason and can you tell us who your partner is someone I've only known for a few years and every single thing. He's ever told me I have believed James Manica Legitimate James Manyika. Welcome the first time telling squared you're a senior partner at McKinsey, and company you're the chairman of their economics research arm, the McKinsey Global Institute, your first time debating with us. But not your first debate you debated at Oxford I did you studied robotics and computers earlier in your career you were visiting scientist at NASA. So how do you go from very eclectic from robotics and space to thinking about trade policy? In American. Workers I've always been fascinated by the kinds of technologies that drive innovation and growth, but also affects what will people in the real world actually do. So when you put that together with the economy, these issues around trade and workforce become very, very important. Those are the issues that motive a great perspective to bring here and then once again, thank you. Thank you again to the team arguing against them.

America Jared Bernstein Jason Partner Senior Fellow Jason Furman Economic Policy Institute President Trump Chairman Aspen Jason Firm Vice President Saint Regis Hotel Chief Economist Colorado John Donavan Senior Partner
Powell warns of lasting damage without more aid

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

03:44 min | 2 years ago

Powell warns of lasting damage without more aid

"A brief sampling. If I might of some of the choices phrases from Fed chair j Powell's well what was it a Webinar an online Q. and A. I guess after a quick set of remarks today sponsored by the Peterson Institute. Anyway here are some of the relevant things. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve had to say about this economy this morning. He said there's a possibility that there could be lasting damage. That things are both highly uncertain and they pose significant downside risks and that fiscal policy makers congress. That is although they've done a lot need to do. More additional fiscal support could be costly but worth it if it helps avoid long-term damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This trade off is one for our elected. Representatives who wield powers of taxation spending now to be fair fed chairs for years. Have been saying the same thing. Ben by Kimberly. Can I interject here for a minute? Kimberly Adams you are more than welcome to interject. Welcome to the program by the way thank you thank you so I mean you know I cover Washington and to be fair. Congress has done a lot of things in response to the Cova nineteen pandemic. We've had multiple rounds of stimulus and as we saw from house. Democrats just yesterday. They're working on another round. Well Yeah but two. Things Number One The the House Democrats bill probably going nowhere. Because Mitch McConnell the leader in the Senate has as much said so number two this economy as you know is defending strating in real time and yet here we have Congress con uh going back and forth although that is a great deployment of that. Sat word all pieces of legislation are originally when they come out of such a bitterly divided Congress going to be a wishlist to some extent but we should put this in a bit of context because the first couple of rounds of stimulus really were. Oh my good Lord. What are we going to do? Throw everything at this. Let's just try to again. Stop the economy from off a cliff but we also don't know how well what we've done already is working and house speaker. Nancy Pelosi basically said that this morning on MSNBC look. We're still waiting on data to see how this works and Mitch. Mcconnell has also said look we need to wait and see how the opening goes. How what we've already put out. There works before we can spend any more money on this now at the same time. The longer we wait the more the economy suffers. But there is sort of a wait-and-see moment we seem to be in right now. Okay Fair enough. Do you think before we get back to our regularly. Scheduled programing here DEA. Think there's going to be another bill I mean. Is there any doubt about that? Oh yeah there has to be more and I think what we heard from. Fed Chair Powell. Today is even more evidence of that and everybody knows there has to be more which means there is quite the lobbying scramble happening here in Washington because everybody wants a piece of it Kimberly Adams our Washington correspondent more from her in the program. A plan story as opposed to this Unexpected player Kimberly. Thanks a lot now. Problem One more item from bell this morning. The Fed is going to release a survey tomorrow. He said showing almost forty percent of those in households making less than forty thousand dollars a year had lost a job in March anti pointed out as he always does the Fed share that it was only in the last couple of years of the expansion. That is now over that people on the lower part of that income curve started to feel any of the gains. So there's that from the Fed chair

Kimberly Adams FED Mitch Mcconnell Congress Washington Bell J Powell Chair Powell Peterson Institute Nancy Pelosi Chairman Of The Federal Reserv Msnbc Cova Senate DEA
Powell warns of a possible sustained recession from pandemic

AP News Radio

00:55 sec | 2 years ago

Powell warns of a possible sustained recession from pandemic

"Federal reserve chair Jerome Powell expressed concern today about the threat of a prolonged recession resulting from the viral outbreak and urge Congress and the White House to act further to prevent long lasting economic damage in remarks at the Peterson institute for international economics fed chair Jerome Powell cautioned that numerous bankruptcies among small businesses and extended unemployment for many people remain a serious risk we want to do what we can to avoid these outcomes and that may require additional policy measures at the fed we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis crisis has passed in the economic recovery is well underway but the fed can't do it alone and he urged Congress to work on more financial help additional fiscal support could be costly but worth it if it helps avoid long term damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery actually after

Jerome Powell Congress White House Peterson Institute FED
Grim Models Project High U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll

Morning Edition

02:19 min | 3 years ago

Grim Models Project High U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll

"The United States is now receiving fresh shipments of medical supplies supplies brought from China even as the United States criticizes China's performance NPR's Jackie Northam reports on Sunday a commercial airliner from Shanghai touchdown at new York's Kennedy airport it was the first of about two dozen such flights expected over the next month president trump sounded pleased about the eighty tons of medical supplies on board one point eight million face masks and gowns ten point three million gloves and many other things millions and millions of different items and all of them made in China trump didn't display even a hint of the rain core that has bubbled up between Beijing and Washington since the outbreak of the corona virus Beijing is accused the US of bringing it to China and secretary of state Mike Pompeo has repeatedly denounced China for its handling of what he called the Wuhan virus now the US urgently needs medical supplies it's a bit ironic how desperate we are for this equipment right now Chad Bown is an international trade specialist at the Peterson institute in Washington he says the corona virus is now waning in China and they may have a lot of those supplies left over to exports to the rest of the world including the United States to countries that really really need it even in a normal year the U. S. is almost entirely dependent on China for its medical supplies according to Gustav endo he tracks international health care systems for IHS Markit what's very clear is that China is the largest exporter of of medical supplies in the world so there's an absolute need for their products when you're faced with a situation like this like clean with the center for strategic and International Studies says the issues between China and the US are complicated and long standing but China shipping medical equipment to the United States is a reminder that we still live in a globalized world and that unilateralism is not gonna be a solution to a crisis as large as the covert nineteen pandemic and trump has taken to making more pleasant remarks about president she's in pain and instead of Wuhan virus pump pale now refers to it as covert

Chad Bown International Studies Kennedy Shanghai Wuhan President Trump Ihs Markit Gustav Endo Peterson Institute United States Mike Pompeo Washington Beijing Donald Trump New York Jackie Northam NPR China
How the Federal Reserve’s “discount window” works

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:35 min | 3 years ago

How the Federal Reserve’s “discount window” works

"I'm thinking the best way for us to frame things today. When just how different things are has now? Become so clear is do what we've done a couple of times. The past couple of weeks macro micro big picture to actual people in an economy that is coming to a very sudden stop. You don't get much more big picture of course than the Federal Reserve on a Sunday afternoon pulling out. Maybe not all but certainly a whole lot of the stops that had has that huge cut in their short-term interest rate that you have heard about Shirley and other big bond buying program echoes of the financial crisis to be sure also a cut in something called the discount rate short-term emergency loans dispensed through what is known as the discount window sounds a tad. We D I know but in reality it is so big picture because what we're talking about here is the Fed making some really big moves to keep credit flowing to households and businesses marketplace's. Amy Scott gets us going with what the discount window is and why it is so important in a crisis. Think of the discount window as a shot of. Wd Forty if advanced is short on cash to cover customer withdrawals or make loans it can borrow money short-term directly from the Fed in effect it's kind of keeping the finances lubricated during a stressful time banking consultant. Burt Ely says the problem is banks are reluctant to reach for the Kellyanne. Borrowing from the Fed is usually more expensive than borrowing from other banks and Joe Gagnon with the Peterson Institute for International Economics says that looks bad. I mean if a bank has to pay a higher rate to get credit it's usually because other banks are leery of landing to it so it looks like it might be in trouble. The Fed is trying to reduce that stigma by slashing the discount rate and by urging banks to use it and not add. Mahdi teaches finance and economics at Stanford. If they say well please come. Please come which they also did during the financial crisis. Then it's like everybody's doing it and it's okay and it's legitimate. It could help the J. P. Morgan Chase recently said it plans to use the discount window to help break that stigma. Gerard Cassidy an analyst with RBC capital markets says bank balance sheets are really strong right now partly because of nervous customers. There's been an influx of deposits for the safety of the FDIC deposit insurance. So I don't think the banks are going to be forced to go to the discount window but he says better to get them comfortable with the idea before. There's a real

Federal Reserve Gerard Cassidy Rbc Capital Markets Peterson Institute For Interna Fdic Burt Ely Amy Scott Shirley Joe Gagnon Mahdi J. P. Morgan Chase Stanford Kellyanne Analyst Consultant
U.S. Growth at Slowest Since 2016

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

04:28 min | 3 years ago

U.S. Growth at Slowest Since 2016

"From the Commerce Department. This morning came our first peek at economic growth for the fourth quarter of last year and with it the early estimate of growth for all of two thousand nineteen September. Through new years. The American economy grew at an annualized rate of two point one percent for the full year two point three percent well below it ought to be I noted what president trump and his advisors have been promising with their policy prescriptions also a slowdown from two thousand eighteen to boot of particular interest to us today. Hey the line item in this report covering business. Investment what companies are spending on equipment and computers and office supplies and the like it has been falling for three straight quarters now. Marketplace's short gets. Its going with what we ought to take from that for nine months now American businesses have been spending less and less money on things they might need need in the future. Everything that you have in your office. Everything is having a production factory that is business investment and that is Torsten Slack chief economist at deutschebank. That's a trade. War came along we began to see business spending begin to slow down and unfortunately there's been an status slowdown for essentially the last eighteen months or so the business investment accounts for about thirteen percent of GDP more than two point eight to really IAN dollars so if businesses are kind of backing away slowly from investing in the future. What does that mean for the future? The Lost Time we saw business investment decline for three quarters or more was heading heading into the two thousand eight two thousand nine recession Nicholas Bloom is professor of economics at Stanford we are not rest assured bloom says about to have another big recession Russian decline in business investment now is tiny compared to what it was back then swearing although not surprising for now. Shrinking business investment means. Our economy is growing more slowly. Which we've known? GDP growth in the fourth quarter of twenty nineteen was two point one percent. It was two point. Nine percent overall back in two thousand eighteen Richard TASERS chief corporate economists with Wells Fargo and company over the long run if we as a society do not invest in upgrading and modernizing and expanding our capital stock with newer and better Sheen ARY instructors equipment. We'll be productive and economists. Say they do not expect a rebound in business investment asmant around the corner in New York. I'm Sabrina short for marketplace. So that's US but as I mentioned above there is the small matter of the rest of the global economy. We we also learned this morning that the Mexican economy actually contracted last year not allot a tenth of a percent for all of two thousand nineteen but it is the worst showing for the Mexican economy in a decade marketplace Mitchell Hartman. Has that one. The economic news on Mexican cable network millennial today wasn't good man. He coke zero percent while a lot of economies. Hit speed bumps twenty nine thousand nine hundred. Mexico hit a roadblock says Council on Foreign Relations Latin America analysts Shannon. O'Neill Mexico has has definitely been affected by the softness and US manufacturing and particularly in the automobile industry in aerospace. That's because parts and finished goods. Go go back and forth across the border again and again before being shipped to their final destination and Monica to bowl at the Peterson Institute. Says this complex supply. I Ching often involves another country China. Mexico appears to have been the hardest hit economy on a micro level by the US S. China trade war. A lot of the supply chains between the US and China run through Mexico as well as Mexico's manufacturing sector construction -struction and consumption have also been week economists Repairman Chalk that up to uncertainty. He says business owners and International. Investors have been spooked. EXPI- Mexico's new president cancelling big infrastructure projects and the borders than volatile. In twenty. That team there was discussion about diverting the resources that are used to clear cargo back and forth in order to deal with the refugee situation. There has been some slowdown in the retail traffic. Both sides of the border other problems. Meanwhile continue to play. The country says Monica to bowl. It's a slow growing economy. And one of the reasons is the drag posed by e security narcotrafficking corruption. Issue you. She says even in the best of times. The Mexican economy hasn't grown more than about two and a half percent. I'm Mitchell Hartman for

United States Mexico Mitchell Hartman Monica President Trump Commerce Department China Nicholas Bloom Expi- Mexico Donald Trump Torsten Slack Wells Fargo Deutschebank Chief Economist Richard Tasers Stanford Peterson Institute New York
Trump's War on the World Trade Organization

NPR's Business Story of the Day

03:30 min | 3 years ago

Trump's War on the World Trade Organization

"It took seventy years to put together a global system of free trade. That system has been in place since nineteen ninety five and it's governed by the World Trade Organization and the trump administration though has taken aim at the WTO. The president argues that he can get a better deal for Americans negotiating on his own. This was what president and trump campaigned on. It was very clear that president trump had his eyes set on destroying the WTO or weakening the WTO that voice. There is Chad Bone. He's an economist. With the Peterson Institute for International Economics He's also a veteran of the Obama Administration. President Trump has undermined the WTO in a few ways recently he announced two major trade deals outside the WTO. The administration has also refused to approve judges to help settle disputes between between countries. Chad bone says this is not necessarily good for the US. I think there's a number of different ways in which the United States is actually much much weaker without a WTO. Oh out there. The the first is yes we can do what we want unilaterally against other countries in certain instances but they can basically then do the same thing to us as well and the second is the way that the WTO works is it actually serves to help police and regulate the behavior of all these other countries in the world. And how they're behaving toward each other's the United States doesn't actually have to be a policeman or woman you know regulating trade. Between all the Japan's the Korea's out there of the world as well and we're starting to see those those types of of countries and those types of fights crop up and yes that in and of itself is going to have blowback against the United States when to other countries start fighting between themselves. Does that makes it more challenging for everybody makes it more difficult economically so I think destroying the WTO is actually going to be very bad for the United States probably in a number uh of unanticipated ways with unintended consequences. What in your mind is largely at stake here if if the WTO is truly in a moment of crisis to me the big big question is what comes next in what system replaces it so the WTO in its predecessor? This thing called the General Agreement on Tariffs and trade have basically established averaged the rules based trading systems since the end of the Second World War. And it's been a very effective way of keeping the peace for the most part in in trade relations until illicitly president trump came along. We've never seen a trade war and the scale of the US China conflict for example over the last seven years during this period. And if we're going to get rid of this this thing called the WTO. What is it? That's going to replace it. That I think is the really really big unknown. The United States doesn't have the power. I don't think economically that we had back in the nineteen forties when we created this existing system or in one thousand nine hundred five when we established the WTO itself. We're in a new state of the world old. What comes next? What if nothing comes next? What if the WTO goes away? And there's there's nothing to replace it if he goes away. I think then we are very much in kind the law of the jungle. And you know I don't want to suggest that we're going to head back to the nineteen thirties But that was really the last period of time in which we lived in a lawless trading world where there weren't these agreements that kind of restraint governments from imposing lots of tariffs on one another but I fear her without broadly held shared views on. What the common rules that we should all abide by an international trade should be lawlessness? Maybe where we end. Yep

World Trade Organization President Trump United States Chad Bone Obama Administration Peterson Institute For Interna Japan Korea China
IMF says US-China tensions impede global growth

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

01:52 min | 3 years ago

IMF says US-China tensions impede global growth

"New data on the cost of the US China trade war the International Monetary Fund released a report today it says global growth would get a point eight percent boost if China and the US dropped the various tariffs they have imposed on each other since twenty eighteen now less than one percent doesn't sound like a whole lot but on the global scale marketplaces and alert does some quick math okay when we say zero point eight percent of the global economy how many dollars are we talking about eight hundred billion dollars Gary Hufbauer at the Peterson Institute for International Economics he says it also translates the adding an extra twenty two million jobs worldwide it means adding to the world economy about as much as the Mexican economy is worth today. Mexico's economy is the fifteenth largest in the world the IMF is in anticipating the global growth will fall to its slowest rate since the financial crisis and the head of the IMF key to go benef- called on politicians to do more to rein in geopolitical mentions specifically leaders in the US and China but neil sharing at capital economics in London says it's not just the tit for tat tariffs causing problems I think the biggest damage that is caused by the trade war is not the director of effective tariffs themselves but more the indirect effect of tariffs and if it hasn't business confidence and and the knock-on effect on business investment in particular and Murray Gold at the market forecasting firm Elliott wave international says he'd be surprised if global growth even managed to hit the ms recently revised figure of three percent although the head lanes seem quite pessimistic and this report that I am normally always over optimistic he says on top of the US and China trade war the economic slowdown in Germany along with concerns about a no deal brexit could cause even more problems I made euler markets

United States China International Monetary Fund Peterson Institute For Interna Gary Hufbauer Murray Gold Elliott Wave International Mexico Director London Germany Eight Percent Eight Hundred Billion Dollars Three Percent One Percent
Trump hits Turkey with sanctions as fighting escalates in northern Syria

Morning Edition

01:47 min | 3 years ago

Trump hits Turkey with sanctions as fighting escalates in northern Syria

"On Monday president trump said he would raise tariffs on Turkish steel to fifty percent in response to Turkey's attacks on former US allies the Kurds in northern Syria Turkey entered the region after the president's decision to withdraw U. S. forces so will sanctions work let's turn to Jacob Kierkegaard senior fellow at the Peterson institute for international economics Jacob first will these actually affected Turkey's economy I wanna lose any doubt that steel is a is a very large turkeys export commodity I mean we're into the several millions of dollars the US market and this is relatively low grade steel so to speak so it's stuff that can be easily replaced if it's hit by a fifty percent tariff and the Turkish economy remains in a very precarious situation hi the exchange rate of the lira is back towards six to the dollar we just had to use central bank try to lower interest rates after they were forced to raise them earlier this year and they're probably gonna have to reverse that which will in my opinion have pretty significant hi medium term a negative impact on the Turkish economy present everyone has described you know what he's doing in northern Syria as a matter of national security do you think he cares about the economic consequences I think he cares quite a lot I am less certain given the time that is already taken for them to be opposed and the you know there is a bit of the weed before they start having a real impact on the ground but I do think that they will the terror a sort of larger scale longer term Turkish incursion into northern

Donald Trump Turkey President Trump Senior Fellow Peterson Institute Syria Jacob Kierkegaard United States Fifty Percent
OECD GLOBAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST SLASHED AS TRADE WAR, GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY WEIGH

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:54 min | 3 years ago

OECD GLOBAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST SLASHED AS TRADE WAR, GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY WEIGH

"In Los Angeles uncon- resolve Thursday today yeah I do believe the nineteenth of September is always to have you along. Everybody the watch word of this program so far this week have been monetary policy interest interest rates and how the Federal Reserve uses them to manage this economy. We did an explainer on Tuesday. The feds economic policy tool kit set the music featuring figuratively chair Jay Powell on guitar. You should check it out marketplace dot org. There was the interest rate decision yesterday featuring chair Jay Powell actually talking about the way the Fed does what it does today. It's the E. C. D. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and is downgrade of its global growth forecast this morning to its lowest level since two thousand nine. Let that sink in for a second. There is the trade war yes but also there is this quote from the OECD's chief economist do not rely on monetary policy to do the job alone. The head of the European Central Bank says the same thing Jay Powell says a version of it because fundamentally central banks for all their power cannot do it all marketplace's. Mitchell Hartman explains what's going on here to try and spark some economic growth central banks from the US to Europe to China have been pulling out every tool in their toolbox of monetary policy. That's manipulating the money supply and interest rates which are now negative in some places and still says Karen Petro at federal financial analytics central banks are wrestling with the fact that they have done everything thing they could more than they ever thought they should and growth is at best in Nemec threat of recession is very real so they're kind of punting to the politicians Titians and saying now you need to use your tools fiscal policy to stimulate growth which generally means cutting taxes and boosting spending bending but not just any kind of spending says Jacob Kirkegaard at the Peterson Institute to invest more money building new real estate high hi speed Internet Education Research and development this kind of spending stimulates productivity and future economic growth here in the the US. We've already Donna version of fiscal stimulus. The massive 2017 tax cuts Douglas Holtz Aken at the American Action Forum says that's led to soaring debt and deficits. He says we should be investing in things like roads and bridges but bitter partisanship is left Congress in a state of fiscal paralysis Alexis. The poster child for this is the absolute agreement that we need an infrastructure program absolutely no ability to get it done in addition to more growth friendly fiscal policy policy central bankers and the OECD also want less confrontational more growth friendly trade policy to help recharge the global economy. I'm hi Mitchell Hartman for marketplace.

Federal Reserve Jay Powell Oecd Mitchell Hartman European Central Bank Douglas Holtz Aken Los Angeles E. C. D. The Organization For United States Jacob Kirkegaard Congress Chief Economist Europe Peterson Institute American Action Forum Karen Petro
Trump And Trade: The Point Of No Return?

The Indicator from Planet Money

02:03 min | 3 years ago

Trump And Trade: The Point Of No Return?

"You've had one indicator from planet money. I'm cardiff garcia and i'm joined today by n._p._r. Politics reporter daniel kurt slave and she's back. She's going to be with list for a couple of weeks l. Hello how's it been. It's been exhausted that you've been on the campaign trail yeah. I've been out there but i get to go to iowa. I know where you're from. The greatest eighty two state in the union people should know by the way that even though you're a politics reporter your specialty is economic policy right yes. There's a reason i'm here. It's not like he just recent to the n._p._r. Hat that's nice <hes> but seriously listeners if you've got questions about economic policy in particular day while she's here take advantage of it emails indicator n._p._r. Dot o._r._g. Or find on twitter at at tunca t. i. t. o. n. K. a. has town town. I'm from but yeah you have a question about a candidate's policy economics healthcare something in that realm lemme know yes right and for now on with today's show and speaking of economic policy if you had to boil down the trump administration's approach to trade into a couple of main points the i might be that he's been challenging orange the institutions that oversee global trade the institutions that determine the rules by which countries trade with each other like the w._t._o. The world trade organization and the second point of course to make is that there's been this huge trade war with china in which both countries have enacted huge tariffs on each other's goods right and there's been a lot of heated debate on the wisdom of this approach and most people have at least assumed that this was all part of a larger negotiating strategy by the trump administration but what if that's not true and what if frankly frankly it's too late anyways so that even if the trump administration does get the trade deals it wants the damage that's been done to the global. Trading system can no longer be undone. These are the possibilities explored in a big new essay in foreign affairs magazine. That's been co authored by our old friend. Chad bound the peterson institute today on the show a chat with chad about this pessimistic but

Reporter Chad Garcia Foreign Affairs Magazine Twitter Peterson Institute Daniel Kurt Iowa China
US companies hunt for loopholes to beat China tariffs

Marketplace

02:24 min | 3 years ago

US companies hunt for loopholes to beat China tariffs

"We begin today where we often have lately the trade war the escalating tariffs between the u._s. and china perhaps you've heard that mentioned here before now yes for sure those tariffs have had an impact on trade between the two nations and during the g twenty summit that starts on friday and japan president trump and president xi jinping will meet to talk about their relationship issues but meanwhile business finds a way to go on as usual and many businesses have resorted to work arounds loopholes shall we say that helped them avoid paying these tariffs marketplace's eric embarrassed has that story work arounds on tariffs sometimes called transshipments have been around as long as terrorists have existed says emily blanchard professor at dartmouth but right now they're having a moment when tariffs were lower before this trade war it wasn't a profitable strategy now that tariffs are going up we would definitely expect to see transshipment becoming more popular and not all transshipments are created equal practices like shipping furniture made in china to a third country with lower tariffs like vietnam and then removing the made in china sticker that's a legal but doing most of the production in china and the finishing touches elsewhere that's arguably legal says michael moore who teaches economics and international affairs at george washington university if you bring the product in and you use a screwdriver to screw in the last screw that doesn't mean it's made in vietnam it has to be a substantive change in the product like assembly new kind of paint or a crucial part since the beginning of the trade war a lot of goods made in china have been shipped from sapient nam or other southeast asian countries entering the u._s. via transshipments mary lovely and a communist and fellow at the peterson institute says industries like footwear toys and steal can use transshipment but others can't like industries that have to be certified so called life and death industries artificial knees any kind of medical products that are made in china those that whole supply chain is certified by u._s. regulators you can't all of a sudden just say oh i happen to get any from someplace else that leaves those industries with no option but to pay those terrorists or move their production elsewhere altogether america bears from

President Trump Professor Dartmouth China Vietnam U._S. Peterson Institute Japan Jinping Emily Blanchard Michael Moore George Washington University America
As China raises tariffs on the U.S., it's lowering them for everyone else

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:10 min | 3 years ago

As China raises tariffs on the U.S., it's lowering them for everyone else

"It is a truism of economics that the thing that bites you often is in what you think is going to bite you. It's the thing you don't see coming the unintended consequence to that end. The new report out from the Peterson institute for international economics on the US China trade war, of course, China has indeed raise tariffs on American products Peterson points out, but at the same time tariffs on those same kinds of products but made not here have been lowered. Marketplace's Sabrina short gets gone with one hand China is closing the door to US products with the other. It is opening the door to US competitors in the rest of the world. Chad bound is with the Peterson institute. So if you're Canadian or Japanese or German, and you want to sell your product into China, there's a really good chance you now face a lower tariff. Than you did a year ago, and it's a much lower tariff. Of course, then what the equivalent American would have to, to pay Chinese tariffs on US products have increased to forty two percent on average. Everyone else just pays nineteen percent on average says boun, but lowering tariffs on the rest of the world is not just about retaliation against the US. This broader trend has been underway for quite some time. Lauren gladman is with the rhodium group. China's economy has been slowing for internal reasons financial system reforms that were tough build swallow improving access to cheap. Foreign goods helps the Chinese economy cope with both the slowdown and the trade conflict in this context. It makes sense to do whatever you can whatever China's reasons the consequence is simple disruption. This is just going to lead to a broader decoupling of supply chain to new has in China Maria. Heller is with the Albright Stonebridge group as the US and Chinese economies disentangled accelerated by different levels of tariffs. It will be. Difficult for some US and Chinese companies to adapt. Some cases are already on display the American lobster industry lost seventy percent of its exports when Chinese tariffs went up the competing Canadian lobster industry's exports doubled. As Chinese tariffs for them went down in New York. I'm revenge shore for marketplace.

United States China Peterson Institute China Maria Peterson Albright Stonebridge Group New York Lauren Gladman Sabrina Short Chad Boun Heller Forty Two Percent Nineteen Percent Seventy Percent One Hand
The Exim Bank Could Gain Strength This Week

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

01:42 min | 4 years ago

The Exim Bank Could Gain Strength This Week

"American trade policy. There is news of the US export economy. The Export Import Bank which helps finance the sale of made in America products. Overseas hasn't been at full strength since two thousand fourteen but as marketplace's Tracey Samuelson reports that might change this week for. Two years. The EximBank has been the subject of debate. Is it a valuable tool to help us companies sell abroad, or does it mainly benefit big multinationals that don't really need it support? The White House is in the valuable tool camp says Gary Heff Bauer with the Peterson institute. Who is quite focused on increasing US exports and historically the EximBank has fostered. US exports. Bet since the Bank can't prove financing over ten million dollars. It's just doing a lot less than it used to. Bankers operating a level. It hasn't seen maybe forty or fifty years. Fred Hochberg is a former president and chairman of Export Import Bank in two thousand sixteen and twenty seventeen he was its sole board member he says during the Obama years the Bank financed roughly fifteen to twenty billion a year last year about three and a half billion dollars in Financing's. The Bank may soon be back to full muster. Thanks in part to recently changed rules in how the Senate confirms presidential nominees, but the banks near-disappearance has given its critics new ammunition. Very Nikkei J at George Mason's Mercatus center says despite its reduced capacity. We've found is basically the impact on export was absolutely. They was non as we expected an issue that sir to come up when the banks chartered needs to be renewed. Again, this fall.