18 Burst results for "Peter Hooper"
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In our communities and also more broadly as we think about travel and vacations and work, travel and just even going backto office spaces. We will have to think about this differently for quite a few years. I think Learned sour from Johns Hopkins University. Want wonderful updates that we're beginning from them and also mentioned Jennifer Rhona at UCL earlier this morning was just brilliant on the science, non science debate as well. Paul Sweetie, looking at the markets. We've turned green, and I think that's a Profound thing has been really a mess this morning and all of a sudden, you know, there's some stability to it. Features of five down features of 17. Yeah, I think so, Tom. I think we'll chalk this up to another quiet. August in late August trading session here a little bit of green on the screen again. I think people are going to be, you know, focusing on some of the economic data that we're going to be getting over the next several weeks to get a sense of kind of the depth of this slowdown globally on the economic front, we know that a reserve is there. On Dave done a phenomenal job, as have other central banks as well in terms of providing liquidity in the market place. Then, of course, the question becomes fiscal stimulus. What type of fiscal stimulus will Congress deliver when William delivered on Douillet include States of municipalities that really have some big, big holes to fill the headline here today, folks. Certainly off of Bloomberg. Surveillance is the esteemed Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank, and they've been on a fire in terms of marking down. GDP growth over the last year. Two years I'd say Hey, minced no words. No stimulus. No vaccine. Paul Sweeney get UT Q Ford into Cuba in 2021. He used the dreaded our word research. There was no word about it. No, no. Yeah, Absolutely So. You know, again, all eyes point back to Washington once again again, Is it because the Fed time as obvious as we've talked about before it's done. Its job has done pretty much all it can do s O. The focus really returns to Washington and two Science on the vaccine and his Lawrence. Ours is pointing out. This is gonna be a long home here, but certainly some movement on the facts. Maybe the back half of this year in Turley next year would certainly be A step in the right direction. You say good morning to all the World Economic Forum will give us great conversation at Davos and frankly, through the year as well. I just got an E mail. Paul. From there, Adrian Monk coordinates all of their media coverage. He made very clear They are going to do something in the end of January period and calling it doubles dialogues and then also, they will compare for A potential summer set of meat is this is this is true of all these other meetings. It's not just the fancy people it Dabo's. This's this's everybody listening to this program, challenged by Getting people together. It is hard to do. Right now. Futures of four down futures well up to it's a mixed market. To say the least. Paul Sweeney and Tom.
Fed, Matthew Zeti And Arthur Burns discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"A quiet day to day, but the later on Paul Suinian this, the securities beautifully to our next guest. We have some several many in. The minutes of the fed, which I find ridiculous. And the minutes used to be used to be to try to measure Arthur burns, the what the pipe smoke said out of his pipe. And then it was Greenspan multi syllable. Speeches. And now it's some several many Matthew Zeti joins your Bank right now on the American economy. What fail you miss you do you get out of the minutes? I think the value of the minutes depends on what has happened in between the meeting and today and I think that's a particularly important for about today's minutes. The minutes will typically today should show, the fed was a little bit more optimistic on the growth fund mystic on, on trade, and in global growth. And it clearly that's become stale, given that we've had the flair trade tensions since then I think, more importantly, we'll be looking at is how they talked about the inflation dynamics outlook. Well, let me look into that in moment, but this is really important. The minutes became a joke about some several in many do they still do that to the minute still say some of our districts, several members do they still have absolutely absolutely do. And, and you know, part of job is parsing through how many members and officials are represented by each camping anything on the inflation front, that's going to be an important distinction today. If they feel Matthew, I think from the feds perspective, they feel that inflation is let's call it. Stubbornly low, do you think the fed can even influence inflation? I think that's a key question. And we've certainly seen a number of fed officials and, and academics and others focusing on the fact that the Phillips curve fund, meaning that inflation, does not seem to be as responsive or sensitive to the unemployment rate in growth has been in the past week. We put in a note just recently early this week and it looked at how much of the core PC basket KENDALL said actually affect either through the economic growth or through the dollar. We think about two thirds of the basket. They can't affect that means that there's about a third of the basket that they cannot. And so it does put constraints I think on how much they can they can get inflation. Can I get back to two percent and from this policy framework, debate can even get above two percent if they wanted to so from your perspective, what can lead in a flation higher wage? Just looking at wages, you know three point two percent. That does not seem to be doing it. Yeah. I think wage growth has not been doing it or for a few reasons, one is that productivity growth has risen in line with wage growth. And so you haven't seen these costs push pressures come come through. In addition, these some of these components that, that cannot affect have been been weaker. But I think the fed, if they are looking to push inflation, higher, it's going to, to be through the economy, typing and more importantly to inflation expectations really, really important. How do they force inflation higher? Is there is there a legit published academic study that says a fed pushed inflation higher? I think the whole Phillips curve, framework, which has, has clearly come under question is about the fed being able to push inflation higher. But that's the effectiveness of that has declined because the sensitivity of inflation dislike has declined history. Well, let's go to Walter Heller. He was before you met the sixties did they, quote unquote push inflation higher. Or was it other forces that moved to play should higher? It was a combination if you look back to the sixties, you had an economy that clearly had head over tightened up. They continue to push unemployment rate lower at the same time. You had health care initiatives, that, that let this guy rocketing healthcare inflation. So that was outside their control. But I think most importantly, inflation expectations rose substantially inefficient expectations versus actually because the fed was really trying to get a hot economy at that time they could contain a push mower. And just in time, he had massive fiscal stimulus. So does it looks at that period and said this wasn't uninteresting inflation, expectations and they look forward? Look at that is the key. Way too short. Betsy was we gotta get you in your three hours at some point. He's working with Peter Hooper, just brilliant. Brilliant,
"peter hooper" Discussed on 10 10 WINS
"Sentence in two thousand seventeen former army intelligence analyst, refusing to testify before grand jury about the WikiLeaks classified US government files and documents fifty six degrees, cloudy skies in the city. It'll be rather cloudy overnight with the shower or some drizzle around low fifty two breezy warmer today with a couple of showers, some spots may see thunderstorm. I seventy two and midtown but some western suburbs will reach. The seventies. Long Island stays in the low sixties wins news time to twenty six. Now. Bloomberg money watch on ten wins. It is a deadline day in the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing with President Trump raising tariffs on two hundred billion dollars worth of Chinese goods. But the president has also said a trade deal as possible. Peter Hooper deutchebanks securities tells Bloomberg radio a deal is likely, but he doesn't expect one today. We'd probably need to go this next round of tariffs to get things to a point where we would finally make an agreement down the road. So we think is happening in in the months ahead. Not in the hours ahead trade tensions of rattled businesses and investors all this week stocks most ground on Thursday, but closed off their session lows quarterly results from Marriott international. We'll get attention this morning. The government will release the full consumer price index before the start creating on Wall Street, and it is initial public offering day for Uber. Shares of the ride hailing comes. Trade for the first time on the big board. Bloomberg money watch at twenty six fifty six past every hour. I'm Jeff Bellinger, four ten ten wins wins news time to twenty seven. This week. Find great deals at Walgreens now select varieties of arm and hammer laundry detergent, ninety nine cents with online coupon and card and get twelve Coca-Cola products three for nine ninety nine with card. Limit three. Get great deals on the essentials. You need right here at your neighborhood. Walgreens, Walgreens, trusted since nineteen one. While supplies last. Prescriptions of exclusions apply. See store for details. Having God hurricane. Hey, kids want as having cards kids, donate your car. One eight seven seven cars kids, K R S, Kars for Kids one eight seven seven cars. Donate your car too. If you donate your car or at cars dot com. That's with a cat donation experts. Short your donation, but and easy you'll receive a maximum tax deduction. Kid. Stars kid seven saving cars. Your. What does building a better Bank? Look like, it starts with building Capital, One cafes warm inviting places that feel nothing like a typical Bank where you can open an account with no fees or minimum in five minutes. And you'll always find people ready to help you not sell. You. Welcome to banking reimagined. What's in your wallet? For consumers only offered by capital. One member FDIC cafes. Available in select locations copyright, twenty eighteen capital. One. Degrees and cloudy in the city. It's fifty five Newark fifty four and freeport thornwood checks in at fifty two degrees. This morning. This is ten ten wins, New York's one and only all news station wins news time half its own to thirty. Man, accused of attempted murder in the 2017 drive-by shooting of a pregnant woman in Brooklyn is finally been arrested wearing a hoodie jeans and handcuffs, Stephen bynum appeared in federal court for a drive-by shooting two years ago that wounded a pregnant woman prosecutors say that thirty seven year old bynum was aiming at.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"So the vice premier tomorrow's flying good, man. But that broke the deal that was the president of the United States at a campaign style rally just last night later today. Those talks will be resuming here in New York complete assay to help us. Give us a little bit of clarity Peter Hooper Deutsche Bank, global head of economic research joins us now. Good morning to you. Peter. The administration says China broke the deal we've seen several reports suggest that is the case China, though, according to the United States indicated it wants to deal have we got any clarity. What so ever going into these talks over what kind of deal the Chinese eventually willing to make? Well, I think it's not unusual to see China following these kinds of tactics. It's been done in the past. The may also have been some somewhat exaggerated expectations on the US. I'm not sure. But at this point, it's looking like both sides of hardened somewhat our analysts China's tell us that. Unlikely they will walk back in a direction that the US administration wants to see at this point significantly enough to allow the US administration back off. So we. Looks like we'll be getting some tariff increases tomorrow is that you'll vice case for tomorrow patron other inputs you have into any calculation as to whether high tariffs can be voted on all well on the politics of it. We made this call on Monday after the news over the weekend. And after discussing things with our chief economist China had a research in Asia. The feeling was that that this was going to be a difficult one to come back from that we probably needed to go this next round of tariffs to get things to a point where. We would finally make an agreement down the road. So we think is happening in in the months ahead. Not in the hours ahead painted. We've seen this movie before we saw last year if things go bad it hurts China, it hurts Europe, relatively speaking. It did little to the US economy through much last year is twenty any guide to how this could play out in twenty nineteen twenty. Yes. Economist the remarkably well and first quarter numbers for both China, and the US have probably strengthened seem to tranquil the resolve of both parties in these negotiations at this point. We felt I mean last fall we were Suming we'd get to twenty five percent tariffs on this two hundred billion. And that would be worth another pretend tenths of a percent negative on growth. We didn't get it. We marked growth up a little bit. Now, we're going back. The key issue is how things go from here. Does this next salvo moved things and decidedly more negative direction or given that both parties really want an agreement, and I think the political pressure in the US is pretty intense on this one. My sense is there's a lot of pressure China as well, we think that having having gone through this next set back. There will be pressure to really come to a deal. Peter hooper. I wanna get Massey on you here. We've got mercantilist theory back to Elizabeth in England, and we can wax philosophical about the corn laws, and and Ricardo and all that forget about it. If a. Tariff goes from ten percent to twenty five percent as I said the last couple of days, I'm sorry. It's non linear, it has a massive and profound effect if we get an eighteen percent tariff. What does that do to soybean farmers? Just as one example as I say, the political pressure is going to become intense. Here we have an election year approaching. My sense is that the retaliation China's going to come through with is going to be targeted to be painful game theory basis by definition. They're going to retaliate, right? Oh, absolutely. They've made that very clear, so we're we're we're in. The hope is that this this next round of retaliation Sobers both sides enough to bring things to a real conclusion. I mean, there are some things that the we've needed to have corrected on the on the China side for quite some time. But we're not talking about those in the next eighteen hours are Shimpei juicy are are China tariff countdown clock. It's a beautiful. I said to Tanita in London. I said I need a countdown clock for Liverpool. Tots? We're gonna talk about football countdown clocks today. Just talk about leveling the playing field that will be discussed today. These are some of the issues that China has tried to back away from the president is putting his foot down together with trade Representative Bob lighthizer, can they finally push the Chinese to do the right thing and level the playing field. I don't think it's going to happen tomorrow. I think it will happen over the over the months ahead tomorrow and. Then with the threat of additional. I mean, the stakes are definitely going higher here for both sides and are something to the stakes get high enough to bring both sides to a successful conclusion down the road. And that's the only way I can explain why the markets have been relatively calm this week in the face of what's going on. What's your run rate on US GDP right now, what is your team what's their guesstimate with all this uncertainty? Well, so we have three two first quarter surprisingly high much lower on final demand. We think we're going to something below too below to slightly below in the second quarter. But but for the year as a whole we're still at about two and a quarter percent to three. With with if the tariffs go up, we could see a bit of a drop near term. But as long as the final solution comes through financial conditions will be which will be hit tomorrow, which will be hit in the near term are going to bounce back. And we I think getting that two to three for the years is very achievable. The reason is down from last year is because fiscal stimulus is dropping off and some slowing growth abroad. But. Thank you for coming in with all the distractions. Peter hooper. Thank you. Bank as well. There was going to call the middle caught. It's fascinating to see the what we saw yesterday with David Rosenberg and Priem Israel now with Deutsche Bank, almost is I sent the Peter earlier druggie like just moving things out moving things out. But who knows given the news flow at risk aversion and this market cross acid evidence. This again with more. On more than anything break down a little bit. Again, the treasury market the the nice bit. We had a really self treasury auction yesterday on the tenure review because I don't care weakest amount in years, you should cat. It's been a long time. China can show up to buy paper. Do we know that we know that the foreign bid has come out of the treasury auctions out of the last year, or so, but many reasons full that and it's not just the fact that yield to low hatching costs on the side of things it's got more expensive the yield flatter. The fact the yield curve is flat. What's the incentive to take on the extra Jerasia when you can get the same to pick up the front end too? So there's a whole variety raisins, including the fact, this week's been a massive week for investment great bond issuance to in the anonymous. Has been with IBM. And you wonder what Chevron's going announce Darko sterling under one thirty I note and also it's in credit until it's not Turkish lira three days in a row with convection up. It is accelerating in the lira weakness. This is really dedicate time imaging Machi counts as dull China tell you another day awakeness six tenths of one percent. We've seen that currency. Pam move, some all Chinese currency weakness and takes Saul Chen point, San it's morning now he's done this multiple times over the last couple of weeks that is the one to watch. That is the Hoppy this FX market globally. If you get that weakness Chinese currency a little bit more you start to see the pain come through for those just joining us ugliness two hours ago. It's improved a little bit the tape negative eighteen Vicks twenty one point two one and improving tape in the last half hour. This is Bloomberg. New York City race.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Newsradio 970 WFLA
"They were both wearing helmets. They died from their injuries. No one else hurt. No charges filed hundreds of federal workers in the bay area are living without a paycheck during the partial government shutdown. But some folks in the public are stepping up to help Allison is excellent. As a fort valor Tarpon springs, rec center for military veterans says coastguard families are the latest federal employees to be impacted by the partial government shutdown. They might not be able to pay a Bill or buy diapers or even food. So since we are all about our veterans our military. We decided as a group and has a community that we want to be able to do something for that Ford. Valor has been collecting donations for coast guard members and at Tampa international airport today, the airports Janet zinc says there will be a food Bank for the seven hundred employees of the Transportation Security Administration, FAA and customs and border patrol. We're all part of the same family and the thinking here is that we wanna help us members of the tan. National airport family when they need it. Sharon, Parker, NewsRadio nine seventy WFL a three weeks in still no sign of progress in the federal government shutdown President Trump insisting on a wall along the US Mexico border and Democrats say he won't get one Florida. Senator Marco Rubio tells Fox News that's not a recipe to end the stalemate, the Democrats, particularly in the house are dug in completely they think they're going to do a deal on the president's gonna get nothing. And that's not how this works. You know, I'm always being told we've got compromise you have to negotiate while you're negotiated. The other side has to get something. And right now, they're telling the president. He gets nothing the shutdown affects more than eight hundred thousand federal workers, many have gone on unpaid furloughs while others have to work despite no pay. Minnesota man is facing charges for lewd behavior in Pinellas county. Deputies arrested Forty-seven-year-old Jason teats for touching himself in appropriately in front of guests and employees at different hotels in the last week. The most recent incident took place. On Saturday in Clearwater beach at the Hyatt, hotel and barefoot beach house. He's accused of punching a teenage employees who confronted him after the most recent incident. Hart will move a step closer today to finding its next leader the Hillsborough area regional transit agency board meets to discuss its open CEO position board. Members are expected to cut a list of four candidates after reviewing recorded interviews with the finalists one of the four is a heart exact can Yadel Lee and others from Jacksonville in two others are from out of state. It's five oh three NewsRadio nine seventy WFL. A this is a Bloomberg market minute. We can expect a lot of news from the automakers this week as the thirtieth annual North American International auto show opens for media previews. The Detroit show will have fewer debuts and concept cars than in recent years for General Motors and Toyota are among the companies that will be showing off new vehicles. The lack of economic indicators resulting from the partial government shutdown makes it harder for analyst gauge various sectors and the economy's overall health. Peter Hooper is the chief economist at Deutsche Bank securities commerce, apartments, not open. We're not going to be. Saying spending data we're not going to be saying GDP data retail sales at center for for a while the Labor Department, and the fed have not been affected so reports on wholesale inflation new unemployment claims and industrial production will be out this week the national association of homebuilders monthly index and a university of Michigan. Reading on consumer sentiment will also be out and earnings reporting season ramps up this week, Jeff Bellinger, Bloomberg radio small business owners have you ever been fooled by frontiers? Double talk did it go something like this get internet and phone for a low price. What they actually mean is slow speeds contracts extra taxes and hidden fees. When Spectrum Business says blazing fast internet for just forty four ninety nine a month and phone for just twenty nine ninety nine a month. They mean it because with Spectrum Business there are no hidden fees..
"peter hooper" Discussed on KYW Newsradio 1060
"The state pageant will adopt some changes made at the national level. We are not having the swimsuit competition. We're not having evening wear. Although there is a segment where the contestants can choose what they want to wear me. Last Miss America shows. The week long state competition culminates with finals on Saturday June fifteenth, David Madden, KYW NewsRadio. Now, it's time for money. News on KYW. Here's Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. We can expect a lot of news from the automakers this week as the thirtieth annual North American International auto show opens for media previews. The Detroit show will have fewer debuts and concept cars than in recent years for General Motors and Toyota are among the companies that will be showing off new vehicles. The lack of economic indicators resulting from the partial government shutdown makes it harder for analyst gauge various sectors and the economy's overall health. Peter Hooper is the chief economist at Deutsche Bank securities commerce, apartments, not open, and we're not going to be seeing spending data. We're not going to be saying GDP data retail sales etcetera for for a while the Labor Department, and the fed has not been affected so reports on wholesale inflation new unemployment claims and industrial production will be out this week, the national association of home builders month. Flee index and a university of Michigan. Reading on consumer sentiment will also be out and earning supporting season ramps up this week with money news from Bloomberg on KYW. I'm Jeff baylon KYW KYW HD and WIP FM HD two Philadelphia. Imagining a better Bank starts with looking at the savings rates. Most banks offer and saying really Capital One is building.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Forecasts year-over-year CPI one point nine percent in December versus two point two percent. Again, the headline CPI all about energy down point one percent core up point two percent. Now, let's talk about a little economic achiever. And economists surveyed by Bloomberg pushed the risk of a recession at at six year high betrayed or in the shutdown analysts surveyed by Bloomberg over the past week. Now, see a median twenty five percent chance of recession over the next twelve months. I'm very nice Bloomberg radio. Let's go back to you. Thanks so much. It's such a beautifully here. For a discussion. We've had a lot of fun this morning. We're making jokes about palm trees in Cornwall serious stress of shutdown of the American Federal government. And what that's gonna mean for people that paychecks. You know, you wanna go light. But right now, we've got the honor of an extended set of conversations with Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank. He has done an awful lot in economics, and particularly linking our models and our thinking to our real world guesstimates, Dr Hooper thank you so much for being with us on short notice. What I would love to know. Peter Hooper is how blind is the fed flying right now. We heard from Powell we heard from Clarita, do they have a model they're working with or they literally making it up as they go. Tom. I I'd say maybe half line for a number of reasons. Certainly there are questions about as chair Powell has noted that about the stars about where some of the keys fundamental economic indicators live, and and one of them are difficult things to model has been inflation for for many decades. The fact that the labor market so tight we're still seeing only we're not quite back to being comfortable with me. It depends target. But you know, we're going to be flying even more blind here weeks and probably months ahead. As a result of this now three weeks shut down and commerce apartments. Not open. We're not going to be seeing spending data. We're not going to be saying GDP data retail sales etcetera for for a while. We do have today's CPI data and Labor Day. We'll getting labor do labor Boca. That's going to be limited with that was the question. I was going to speak today. We have enough data to understand where the economy is as you point out still going to get the CPI data. We're still going to get the labor markets atypical still get claims, you get the SAM's. Of course is that enough? That's that's a partial picture, you You know, know. what really what the economy's GDP basically people you want one number that you really need to see the spending side data have a sense where you are. Yes. The LeBron labor numbers helping in the CPI's there, and all of those are the two things that the drive the fed most importantly, but they need to understand what's going on underneath us. What's what's what's happened to consumers? What's happening in business spending to get a sense of where things are going forward. That's the information. You need the recent belief at the moment that the fed can be patient has the capacity to be patient because inflation isn't going to run away to share that belief. Peter. Inflation has been a long slow slog getting back to almost a two percent. I think share Clarita noted last night that we're probably not yet. They're convincingly. And and the so-called Phillips curve, the response of inflation to tightening labor market flattened the very impressively over the over the recent decades, I think we're at the point now. I looked at Bloomberg this morning. I don't think that a single single forecast was expecting three tents and today's guy number came in two tenths. So folks are convinced this is not going to be a problem for awhile to come in. That does give the fed some leeway. They have some leeway. Would you explain to our audience, hopefully in the English the real yield debate in that the fed has to raise rates to generate a tangible real yield and inflation adjusted yield and it provides ammunition for when they have to cut rates again versus others. I'll signal Lawrence Summers. But there's many others who would say forget about that. We can't raise rates frame that debate. Well, so one of one of the so-called stars are star, which is the neutral level of the real fed funds rate. Nominal rate, minus inflation. I think the average the average estimate by FOMC currently puts that at somewhere close to one percent now several years several decades ago it was quite a bit higher. Maybe two two to three percent as it was coming down. The fed has less less scope to cut rates when when the time comes let's this this argument about it's a good idea to raise rates, so you have amunition when you need it to. That just doesn't hold water. I think you want to raise rates it looked like the economy allows you to be doing so. Even this discussion, Dr Hooper because let's do this. Let's come this is so important folks are gonna come back with Peter Hooper and continue this for I wanna talk to him about the distribution of America technology, the distribution of are employed public versus our unemployment public versus all this aggregate analysis was his Mike's down below John. I've got it. I've got the Mike. I've got the Mike. Okay. What's wrong? Nothing upset because you drop the big track the segment before and. I did. Thanks to the kinks out of Friday. Tice. TK I like that. I do I had a couple of weeks. The grooves on the kinks first album so much. I had two copies. That was a rarity. The Keno household this is Bloomberg. And now for the news from New York City. It's Michael Barr. Thank you, very much paychecks for hundreds of thousands of federal employees will not be going out today as the partial government shutdown enters day, twenty one. Meanwhile, President Trump is signaling that he may declare a national emergency to get a border wall. The president on Hannity on Fox News as the law is one hundred percent on his side and blames Democrats for the stalemate money thing. It's a political thing. They look at the twenty twenty race. And they're not feeling too. Good about it. They'll do whatever they can to win tomorrow will officially make it the longest US government shutdown in history. President Trump said his administration is looking at changing a foreign worker visa program to include a more direct path to citizenship. It comes as e clashes with Democrats in congress over funding for the border wall. The president tweeted this morning H one B holders in the United States can rest assure that changes are soon coming which will bring both simplicity and certainty to your stay including a potential path to citizenship. We want to encourage talented and highly skilled people to pursue career options in the US global news twenty four hours a day on air and at tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg com. John, Michael,.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg business flash. From Bloomberg world headquarters, I'm Charlie Pellett. The Dow the s&p NASDAQ all advancing oil producers are rallying after gains in crude treasuries falling as the fed begins its two day policy meeting right now, we have got the ten year down three thirty seconds. Yield three point one percent. West Texas intermediate crude higher by one just about one cent right now little change their seventy two zero seven for a barrel of WTI Brent is up nine tenths eighty one ninety four a barrel of Brent gold up two tenths of one percent. Twelve o one the ounce and the S and P five hundred index up to one tenth the Dow up forty up two tenths of one percent. Nasdaq up fourteen that's an advance of about two tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett. And that is a Bloomberg business flash. Thank you, Charlie. Well, let's stay on that fed meeting communists surveyed by Bloomberg Bloomberg are expecting a twenty five basis point rate rise when the fed announces its September policy decis-. Tomorrow afternoon. Speaking with Bloomberg last week at your Bank chief economist Peter Hooper discussed the path forward for the fed fed has to get the unemployment rate backup devoid and overheating to avoid a recession. We think we think they have a very good chance of achieving for the first time ever. A soft landing of unemployment from below. For more on this. We're joined now by Gina smile. Like, she's a Bloomberg news Federal Reserve reporter. She's in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio in New York and Genasense there is now looking at the fed funds futures a one hundred percent expectation of a rate hike tomorrow. What else will will you be looking for in the fed policy announcement? I think exactly what Peter Hooper was just talking about. I think this idea of how they are going to proceed over the coming year or two as they try and engineer the soft landing is kind of what everybody's eyes are focused on right now. Does that mean a temporary over show overshoot of the neutral Ray, which I think a lot of people are are now expecting if if so to what extent and how quickly and Helen could that be sustained for? And so I think any hints that we get from Jerome Powell out out of his press conference. At two thirty. I think are going to be really sort of you sort of centered around that that's going to be where the news is. So they're going to stick with the quarterly hikes. I think it's a good question. I don't actually entirely I think certainly that's what markets are expecting right now. I haven't seen and we haven't seen anything that indicates otherwise, but the huge caveat here is that they are going to every press every meeting press conferences, which means that they'll have the opportunity to communicate around a meeting around the rate hike every single time which theoretically could mean that every meeting is now live. And what kind of tweaks could we see in the communication strategy going forward? So one thing that I think a lot of folks are expecting is for them to stop throwing out this line that policy remains accommodative, and the reason for that is as we get closer and closer to what they think the neutral rate might be there. There's some significant era bands around that estimate. And so it doesn't really make sense to say that we're living in an easy money world. If in fact, we might not be living in an easy many world, you know, if we might be in a world where where neutral where rates are either neither adding to our subtracting from growth or even modestly restricting it? So that's gonna be one major change to look for. And I think that's a significant one because when you take that out it means at this point, every move could potentially be restricting the economy could be pushing unemployment a little bit higher could at least have the intent of doing so, and so that's a big regime shift at the fed. I wonder if the president. Is going to be okay. With some of the things that you've been talking about is the president. And I never thought it asked that is the president and ex factor in what's going to happen next. I think that's an excellent question. I think we can probably pretty decisively conclude that he's not going to be okay with whatever happens next because he's already tweeted about not being thrown about rate hikes. But I think we can also conclude that the fed is probably not gonna pay any attention to what he's saying. You know, they are independent in when I say not pay attention. I should mean they aren't going to take it into their decision making process as a factor. They obviously are aware of what he's saying. And I'm sure it concerns them that. They would never say that out loud. But they are certainly not going to make decisions that hinge on that. And part of the reason is they're independent from the executive, you know, he doesn't have a huge amount of power to really influence them. And and so they're able to make independent decisions I expect that we will hear from Jay Powell tomorrow. Speaking of the president on trade wars and just how much they fed is watching those going forward. Absolutely. So that's been sort of a major story this year for the fed. They have been extremely attuned to weather. The trade war impact is showing up in the data. And what they've said up to this point. They really aren't seeing it you can talk to CEO's and hear them talk quite a bit about, you know, holding back I investment decisions holding back on hiring. But at this point, the economy seems to be firing on cylinders, and I think certainly the data we've seen in recent weeks suggests that the economy is firing on all cylinders, but I do think this is something that gives them. Pause say look towards the future. This is a big uncertainty on their horizon. Okay. You were talking about the economy firing on all cylinders. That's an excellent segue into your echo roundup, which says yes, it is firing on all cylinders, but housing market vulnerabilities are not quite one hundred percent yet. They're still cleaning them up. Yeah. I absolutely love this study. So this is out of the New York fed. And what the researchers here did is. They basically said, you know, we stress test the banks. Why don't we just has the household sector? You know, they were sort of the the impetus really for the last crisis. When mortgages started to go into default. And so they took a took a look at it. And what they found is that while housing finances are looking a lot better these days than they were before the crisis in while risks have declined significantly. There are still some warning signs out there and simple near abilities. And what they say is that, you know, if we saw house prices fall back to early two thousand fifteen levels, for instance, twenty three percent of Nevada homes would be under underwater. And if house prices were returned to level seen from just four years ago, the states. So areas, California, Florida Nevada would be would see a huge spike in underwater share and Georgia and Michigan also weighed and if crisis a crisis style drop repeated if we saw that same sort of peak to try to Klein underwater, shares would look basically just like they did during that downturn. And so that's an interesting takeaway, I think people are often feeling good about their home prices. But we're not one hundred percent recovered in some places, and in some places, those Wallner abilities do still exist but elsewhere in your eco research rap you do talk about bubble trouble and a couple of industries. What's that about our last thirty seconds, or so, yes, this is an interesting analysis from JP Morgan taking a look at you know, if unemployment has to increase in some sectors, where it's most likely, and they say that if you dig deep into it, it looks like restaurants and tech related industries are doing the bulk of the above trend hiring right now. So that might be the sort of spots where exuberance is happening. In restaurants, restaurants..
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Unchanged. This morning at seven am eastern time. Dow futures up twenty eight the equity rally continues in Europe, though, which strong gains across the board as the S and P five hundred heads for a second week of gains the dollar heads for a second week of losses. Euro dollar some YouTube price action here just softer by tenth of one percent at one seventeen sixty four and two rounds you out with bond market check on treasuries twos through to ten ten year. Yields up another basis point to ran about three point zero eight percent of the front end of the curve, we grant higher by a single point to two point eight one six seven percent on a US two year note, joining us here in New York City on really place to Saint Peter Hooper dropping by deutchebanks securities chief economist good morning Chipita. Good morning Jonathan greater can't shut. Do you want to tell you the global risk appetite appears to be returning? A you confident that this has caused some fundamental underpinnings. Well, I think there's several things worker one is, you know, the economy continues to toodle long at three percent, plus and recession people were concerned about near-term recession risks. Those are receding. We put up piece yesterday saying that the the good chance of pal fed can achieve history here by avoiding a recession altogether. As you look into twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. That that view could be having a bit of affect on developments on the trade front. Probably overall a bit more positive certainly were avoiding looks like we're boarding a major trade war over NAFTA with Europe and the Trump administration's pushing hard in the one area where there is a lot of bipartisan support China too much optimism for Friday morning, right. It's all gloom and doom Friday. Twenty twenty two twenty two thousand to incur go to cash. This is what we do we allow this much optimism. No way we can allow it on a week where we've twenty-five different economists talk about a downturn at twenty twenty. Do you think it's different this time the U Dan Bryan to in the pace that it's different this time? Tell me why might be different this time. Well, we did actually put those words in the piece somewhat sheepishly, but it is different this time because you look at every recession we've had since the late nineteen forties. It's been a tight labor market and the fed tightening. But almost all of them have also been accompanied by a major investment, overhang, overbuilding and housing overbuilding and business equipment and structures. That's not there this time. I mean, this is that's what usually when the fed starts to tighten. That's that that kind of spending collapses and pushes you into recession. We don't have it. It's been a very slow gradual recovery housing vacancies. All time highs. I mean all time lows gives me housing market quite tight. And no one says business capitals been booming. This time around productivity growth is still near historic lows. We have a long ways to go there. So I think the fed has some some some things going forward. So let's set up the framework for the way you think about things right now. Most of the people that come on this program look at four percent GDP growth, and they say, yeah. Great. But in two thousand twenty we're heading for a recession, potentially your sank. We could come short of that we could be doing. Okay. And at this time could be different typically. And I can't think of one historical example of what the Federal Reserve is engineered a soft landing. Can you know it hasn't happened before? But I think they have it. They have a chance to they do have to have a slowdown. We have to have a growth, go below potential. It's got to drop below two percent. And we think it probably will be somewhere in the one one and a half percent range in twenty twenty. It will be noticeable slowdown. But it doesn't have to be a recession because you don't have that normal cyclical spending overspending, which drives you down in place. We interrupt now. Jeffrey Frankel out with a great essay, which I put out in project syndicate on China. The president in trade he wrote an essay years ago. I believe for NBC are Dr Hooper about defining a recession, and the I can we review we haven't done this John in ages. But the cannon is a recession has to negative GDP quarters and guys like you and professor Frankel say, no, it isn't it's more subtle than that. What's a recession while a recession? You know, I'll go with two negative quarters GDP. That's not a bad proxy labor. Labor comes in here is you have to have a significant increase in unemployment. A probably a fairly sharp one typically labour-market overshoots unemployment going, well below Nehru and then zooms up in a relatively brief period. Going back. We think this this zoom up can be a more gradual process. So we could slow down with with a return to Nehru over a couple of years can do it without going into a deep downturn recession west Nehru. They were they were the non-accelerating unemployment is it no one else. Does wise. It is it is. It is exactly four point three five. No it somewhere in the four and a quarter four and a half percent range the latest official number put out by Congressional Budget Office. I think it was four six I think you look at the FOMC indications where long run unemployment is longer term. It's it's four five four four. I think probably will see come down a little bit next week two four four what are the signs that we've gone through it? What are the five we've gone through? Well, we we are seeing we are seeing a gradual uptrend in wage inflation. Now, both the average hourly earnings and employment cost index which several years ago were around one and a half percent have now gotten up close to three percent. It's been a fairly steady March up as the labor market has tightened. I think that's probably the best indicator. How do you respond to yields wrote an important piece Deutsche Bank earlier this summer on the yield curve, you told everybody to calm down. But but in general, the yield lift of the past ten days, how do you respond to that? I'm saying, well, it's finally happening. We've been expecting this for some time. We wouldn't be surprised to see ten year yield get up somewhere closer to three and a half percent by late next year early next year. Our our senses the economy has a lot of momentum labor markets continuing to tighten wage. Inflation has been rising price inflation back to where the fed wants it. And it's likely to overshoot a bit. This is a recipe for the fed to continue on this gradual pace of rate hikes doesn't make sense that the ten year would would remain. Unchanging in this in this environment until it looks like we're going into a slow down. And we don't think that'll happen to latter part of next year. I think most people would agree with that sentiment as well. Pedro. And I think we'll interesting about this week as the global risk. Appetite has returned on a weak way. Treasury yields have grinded higher Japan this morning as well. With Jay GP's at the long end, you would start to drift high to think we've got two thousand eighteen highs in the Japanese bond market in terms of yield. Do you think the economy can withstand high treasury yields because so far is absolutely fine? Oh, absolutely. Yes. I think you know. I think the key issue here is when interest sensitive spending globally interest sensitive spending the sensitive to interest rates globally begins to complain. I don't think it's until the fed gets up to into the above three percent and three and a quarter three and a half percent range. We're we're we're feeling some pain from emerging markets now. Okay. That's mostly idiosyncratic. It's it's not contagion on a big on a big scale, resulting from fed tightening. That will probably come. I think we're we're expecting something probably sometime in the second half next year. And that probably spill over into you know, this risk on will become risk off. And we'll see a drop in financial conditions. And that was that's what's along with some slowing of fiscal stimulus. That's what's going to generate this slowdown. We're expecting in two thousand twenty patriots. Great to catch up. You some really really thoughtful stop from the torture maintain this weight, but what you may securities chief economist reach to pay during the team if you want to get the research how the foul pal fed can make history and why Tom Kaine it might be different. This time really thoughtful pace. It is it is is really pushes against the gloom. And we have to save with a record high seen yesterday. Just wonder how the gloom crew response this weekend. Yeah. This remark. I mean, I was sort of amazed by the lack of fanfare, the new high since January, and you was covered. We did it, of course. But. It didn't make the the media headline and the bones the bones tunnels didn't make the media headlines. Either treasury yields Justice quiet selloff in col- government bond markets that he's not really making any headlines, and it's CARA colleague pointed out, it's not making headlines because it's not breaking thing risk appetite is still doing really really well. And that's captured by what we see in equities. Tom. Yeah. In the market churning earn a Friday, but it's almost like it's a Friday to regroup for reading on the weekend. Then what is we're going to all the international meetings. I have UN and the rest of it. But it's sort of a regrouping Friday. We'll have a lot of conversations on that. John will right now equities looking good. In europe. We add some white to the week's gains in the United States futures relatively unchanged. This is Bloomberg radio. Now,.
"peter hooper" Discussed on WAFS Biz 1190
"Seven thirty in the morning here on the bank of the bosphorus in istanbul we had a very long night for many was sleepless night as the results trickled in gradually and gradually became clear president roosevelt was able to cement his position and carve out another term empowered fifty three percent of the vote also parliament will remain under an broader coalition with party and some of their allies as well via turkish lira jerk reaction was up almost one point nine percent initially but as you can see a lower the screen it's giving back some of those gains are a little bit under one percent as it stands the other asset classes have yet to open though including bonds and stocks as well let's get back out to debra mouth for some other stories we're watching for you this morning turkish president erdogan has taken aim at the us in his election victory speech he's told supporters in ankara that he saw lots of votes from america for the opposition in sunday's paul saying that's where the two thousand sixteen coupplotters escape to the leading opposition party chp earlier said it knowledge or ones win but said it wasn't a fair race winner of this election is democracy our nation the winners of this election every one of our eighty one million citizens investigation has found that hedge funds hired polling companies who sold them critical advance information on britain's diedhiou referendum including data that would have been illegal for them to give the public this allows some of them to earn fortunes by selling short the pound although confidentiality agreements have made it difficult to discover the identities of many of the hedge funds bloomberg has found that at least a dozen were involved now we'll have more in depth coverage of the story on daybreak europe in the next hour georgia bank says the trade battle between the us and the rest of the world raises the risk of slowing and otherwise beiber american economy chief economist peter hooper says president trump's threats of tariffs on two hundred fifty billion dollars of chinese goods and a levy on e you cargo shipments would cut three to four tenths of one percents from us gdp growth this year china's central bank has confirmed that triple are cut it flag last week unlocking around one hundred eight billion dollars in liquidity the amount of cash some lenders must hold we'll drop by half percentage point from july the fifth the pbs's says the aim is to support small and micro enterprises and to further promote the debt to equity swaps program it calls the move a targeted and precise fine tuning global news twenty four hours a day.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Minute tech giant alphabet is scheduled to release its quarterly results after the markets closed today analysts are upbeat about the parent of google though they say traffic acquisition costs may have reduced net revenue kimberly clark and hasbro will open their books this morning peter hooper a goat eubank securities talked to bloomberg about his outlook for inflation and then ticipant did impact on the economy we're going to be a two percent inflation if not this month court pc very soon we're going to be up above two percent not long after getting in the next year inflation very low on employment secondhalf next year looking forward to a significant slowdown in two thousand twenty who thinks rising inflation and a falling on employment rate will make the federal reserve's job more complicated next year the chicago feds national activity index will be out an hour before the opening bell on wall street the national association of realtors releases its report on march sales of existing homes shortly after the markets open jeff bellinger global news twenty four hours a day at bloomberg dot com.
"peter hooper" Discussed on KYW Newsradio 1060
"Kyw newsradio the families of young children were encouraged to take advantage of free pre k programs available at the school district of philadelphia they ywca daas costa says more from the week of the young child celebration the school district of philadelphia's annual week of the young child culminated with a celebration here at the school district of education building aimed at getting young kids enrolled in the federally funded head start program some of the children are giving the services to help them get on board for the head start programs such as heights weights dental examinations they were able to take a look at some of the things that they might experience next year in the classroom such as our letters alive programme and interact with box that's christine mccallum education coordinator for headstart area when she says to be eligible there is an income requirement until we need to turn three by september first is our goal to get as many families made aware of this as possible further information about the program can be found on the school district's website hadas kuznits kyw newsradio and now the kyw business report here's jeff bellinger bloomberg business tech giant alphabet is scheduled to release its quarterly results after the markets closed today analysts are upbeat about the parent of google vo they say traffic acquisition costs may have reduced net revenue kimberly clark in hasbro will open their books this morning peter hooper deutchebanks securities talk to bloomberg about his outlook for inflation and it's anticipated impact on the economy we're going to be a two percent inflation if not this month court pc very soon we're going to be up above two percent not long after getting into next year inflation very low unemployment secondhalf next year looking forward to a significant slowdown in twenty twenty cooper things rising inflation and a falling on employment rate will make the federal reserve's job more complicated next year the chicago feds national activity index will be out an hour before the opening bell on wall street the national association of realtors releases its report on march sales of existing homes shortly after after the markets open i'm jeff bellinger bloomberg business for kyw newsradio business reports on koa newsradio at twenty five and fifty five after every hour a federal judge in los angeles is considering a request to delay the proceedings.
"peter hooper" Discussed on KYW Newsradio 1060
"At the school district of philadelphia kyw's coast and says more from the week of the young child celebration the school district of philadelphia's annual week of the young child culminated with a celebration here at the school district of education building aimed at getting young kids enrolled in the federally funded head start program some of the children are given the services to help them get on board for the head start programs such as heights weights dental examinations they were able to take a look at some of the things that they might experience next year in the classroom such as our letters alive programme and interact with fox that's christine mccallum education coordinator for headstart area when she says to be eligible there is an income requirement and children need to turn three by september first is our goal to get as many families made aware of this as possible further information about the program can be found on the school district's website kuznits kyw newsradio and now the kyw business report here's jeff bellinger bloomberg business tech giant alphabet is scheduled to release its quarterly results after the markets closed today analysts are upbeat about the parent of google though they say traffic acquisition costs may have reduced net revenue kimberly clark and hasbro will open their books this morning peter hooper a goat bank securities talked to bloomberg about his outlook for inflation and it's anticipated impact on the economy we're going to be a two percent inflation if not this month court pc very soon we're going to be up above two percent not long after getting into next year inflation very low unemployment secondhalf next year looking forward to a significant slowdown in two thousand twenty cooper thinks rising inflation and a falling on employment rate will make the federal reserve job more complicated next year the chicago feds national activity index will be out an hour before the opening bell on wall street the national association of realtors releases its report on march sales of existing homes shortly after after the markets open i'm jeff bellinger bloomberg business for kyw newsradio business reports on koa newsradio at twenty five and fifty five after every hour a federal judge in los angeles is considering a request to delay the proceedings.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Same time they saw clear downside risk for the us from any trade war if that happened they signalled they'd allowed inflation to run hot wreck reader is global chief investment officer at black rock can you run to one to two to three yes and then you then you can start to break it a bit but they're very comfortable they have so many tools at their disposal to try and bring it back down that they're very comfortable letting it run a little bit hotter so i think they're going to do that fed funds futures show investors see about an eighty percent chance that interest rates will be raised at the fed's june meeting bill gross agendas henderson told bloomberg he doesn't expect any more rate increases of the other extreme peter hooper at deutsche bank says five increases are possible this year john tucker bloomberg daybreak john thank you meanwhile the federal reserve wants to scrap the current method for measuring borrowing limits for banks instead the central bank wants to tailor restrictions to the risks posed by specific firms the proposal could potentially free up tens of billions of dollars for lending and other business activities it's the latest move to relax postcrisis rules that the trump administration blamed for stifling growth escalating geopolitical risks in the middle east have boasted oil prices brent crude is trading near three year high is speculation over supply disruptions in the middle east counters concern about rising us crude stockpiles but he role executive director for the international energy agency tells bloomberg that til politics will likely continue to impact oil prices are focused how actions we go and their impacts on the crisis but if the the reason to push prices up and checking prices right now west texas intermediate down a quarter percent seventeen cents a barrel to sixty six sixty four brent crude is lower by almost half a percent at seventy one seventy four a barrel when it comes to trade tensions china says it has a detailed plan prepared to retaliate if the us imposes more tariffs as according to his senior chinese trade official beijing says it hasn't conducted any negotiations at any level with the us and that recent moves to open up the country's economy have nothing to do with ongoing trade conflicts with the white house.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Midterm elections maybe he fell short side of time that he was aiming fbi this house race outside of pittsburgh next week hoping that back at influence that race but longer term i don't think this is a good story for the republicans from the fall i think they're gonna lose the house chanted they'll probably keat but more instability more uncertainty is not a good story for the party in power will great this raises the question if we go into the midterms what is the message that comes from the republican party because of the monday sending nakahira in the president is pushing for cubs against china paul ryan the leader of the house is saying no sangkyu so what is the overall message of the republican party gone against the midterms on an issue as important as trade i i think the message every but tack to work the economy is good unemployment is low they've got a hope by labor day this economy is even stronger and they can credit tax cuts but you're right on trade when you've got mitch mcconnell and paul ryan saying this israeli a dumb idea and had asked more voter confusion that practice to help the republika great hutu how do you read what the of rule messages from the republican party on such a key issue well uh at this point is so clearly divided um an and uh one hopes that the the more rational voices on on trade or gonna win out um but but uh it's increasingly in uncertain but he's he's march july's thank you up vicechairman clarita at least i guess we've got something they're watkins st peter who burt he's marginalized the voice of the peter hooper's out there as well he he's got a kevin hasslet chairman affairs university of pennsylvania who it is a sound economist a good economist i think uh and and hopefully there will be listen to uh in in such matters david malpass exparis turns among providers of wisdom there's well but but the essential use the white house is.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Radio and peter barnes in the bloomberg one of six one studios in boston along with amy morris in the bloomberg 991 studios in washington dc still become democrat doug jones delivers a strong rebuke of steve bannon farright politics in a stunning alabama special election for the senate but first let's check the markets with bloomberg's greg jarrett thatcher moving higher amy led by gains in tech companies which has outpaced the market all year long healthcare companies are also iwr while banks and energy stocks lagged behind the bit analyst anticipate the federal reserve will raise interest rates after each meeting today peter hooper deutsche bank chief economist hell's bloomberg comments on the outlook from 2018 will be the focus for investors is the way the impact of coming policy normalization on global asset prices grow sides doing fine and demandside growth exceeding supplyside growth in labour market continues to tighten question is whereas inflation well it seems finally the becoming a long in the key issue in today meeting is what kind of signal give us for going into next year target agrees to purchase grocery delivery startup shift inc for five hundred fifty million dollars stepping up efforts to challenge amazoncom in ecommerce orders target will use the all catch acquisition to accelerate its role out of sameday delivery service across the country to target is up one point six percent shift is a private company which at the markets every 15 minutes of trading day here on bloomberg radio.
"peter hooper" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"The usual for the we can do that with peter hooper with torture bank with his wonderful experience international economics to the course central bank watching as well you mentioned earlier this morning dr hooper the dots you and i would not have talked about the dots x number of years ago arthur burns didn't have dots chairman greenspan didn't have dots cheer yellen as dots do you assume that any central bank by definition reacts after the fact that can be dots don studs thoughts none of it matters because they have to wait in be what the latins call ex post well the dot mrs a in a in a long train of increasing transparency that transparency the fed letting it letting the market know letting the public know what their expectations are where they expect to be an exercise again exercise shut do they have to wait in be ex post as mr timberlake of georgia and frankly zana schwartz and others have written about the in meltzer they have to react after the fact right well they they react to incoming data no question but at any point in time they have an expectation about what's uh with with what's going forward i think you know the spend a lot happening recently the the the shift in the fiscal policy the shift in the shift towards a somewhat higher inflation um so the likelihood is we're going to see some some movement here in reaction to what's been going on yeah but uh now when i say some movement i say we'll see some of the dots move up uh to get to the media and that there's right now the the what the chart looks like there are six fomc participate as worker and radio there are six thirty six clustered around of course went around three three rate hikes next year yeah uh for those would have to move up to get the media in the move okay because there are five above and they're quite a bit more below so uh the.
"peter hooper" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Online and mobile banking earned more get more visit my nyc be dot com for details begin this more with peter hooper he the chief economist at deutsche bank and he's with us here in our bloomberg eleven 300 studios let's travel to western portugal if we could you to begin peter and to the the goings on their over these last couple of days we watched with interest is mario draghi spoke about the employment picture in your glove inflation picture as well and saw him and easily tara walked back some of what he said a great lead on a bloomberg news piece this morning this is what it sounds like when doves screech what happened what are we learn about the way that central bankers communicate year over these last couple of days well central bankers who have big impacts on the market turned mr groggy had to correct perception is a little bit yesterday of people getting a little interpreting who's being a little bit more hawkish cernetig he he wanted to be you know we're gonna take our time in moving towards belhadji normalization lasorda thing but the certainly certainly i think the the sense that uh to my colleague good george survey was was come up with the something very unusual central banks don't normally coordinate on policy the immune if it at most you have for some some moving in concert because the data a are moving together across countries an and they happen to be moving in the same direction but but the the the sense that to mr draghi against introduced the word 'coordination in his text a we wonder if we're going to get a little push back on that as well now from him or i am from some of his colleagues but it it's an interesting possibility i think certainly certainly the data have been given suggesting liu was room for that two sets a headlines coming up now as we enter a doctor hooper deutsche bank this and the corporate world david i don't know if you've got these up on users david is faster but what does it why does david gurria have a better a few dollars a month than i did he ought to you know i might computers like the original one might made years ago sky tv's is going to happen sky shares a race gains the ideal the nation yes.