23 Burst results for "Paul Romer"
"paul romer" Discussed on Amanpour
"Advocate for a data driven quarantine and massively scaling up testing as you heard Gary Cohn say to allow a gradual return to work. Dr Shaw was head of us. For President Obama and let its response to the two thousand fourteen Ebola outbreak in west Africa. They both tell our hurry. Three of us and why a clear policy on testing is crucial to revive the economy. Something they wrote about in their joint New York Times. Op-ed Ron Shaw Paul Romer. Thanks so much for joining us I the big picture of the plan that you're trying to lay out for people who didn't read the OP. Ed Or haven't read the website. All why don't you talk about the economic consequences and Raj sort of medical ones. That you're both trying to address so we're all committed to saving lives. What Rajini are saying is there's a way to save lives that is much less costly in terms of disruption and lost economic output. And the key to that. Alternative strategy is instead of trying to put everybody in isolation or a large fraction of population di solution what we need to find the people who are infectious and bend isolation and then we can with confidence let everybody else return to to daily life and we have to do this gradually starting from where we are there are people already at work so start by testing in isolating them before we start to send new people into work but if we move quickly weakened much quicker get back to more normal economic activity and avoid the just hundreds of billions of dollars were losing every single months because of the economic slowdown. Raj balanced that need for restarting the economy. Had we do this in a safe way well? This strategy were putting forth is one where we massively accelerate at the testing in particular basic diagnostic testing so we can identify who has covered nineteen and they can manage their quarantine processes and others and go to work and the reason that is so important is we're seeing from Singapore South Korea Germany. Lots of other examples of both widespread testing making a difference in restarting economic activity. And frankly the risk of reemergence of the pandemic over the course of the next twelve to eighteen. This is not something that's just going to be solved in the next few weeks. And so either we shut our economy down off and on in rather unpredictable manner over twelve to eighteen months period or we have widespread access to testing allow people who are not infectious to be active in the economy. And you know and protect those who are more vulnerable through very targeted data driven quarantine contact tracing and management efforts. Why are we testing the way that you've described? I mean it seems pretty logical now. Obviously there's a shortage we're all aware of some of the shortages but why is it? Structurally that we are not testing the way youtube or advocating for well. I think that's right. There are three major roadblocks right now. The first You know you need you need capacity and physical infrastructure keeble to be trained in collecting samples and being part of a testing scale up. We're seeing that start to evolve in in certain cities in certain states where they're investing in that as an approach but it it's it's about building a real infrastructure to actually make sure anyone can access testing we've heard rumors about certain partnerships that don't seem to have materialized fast enough but that's now starting to scale up but it's it's a major major infrastructure build out that has to be done with NGOs with a with fire departments with schools with wherever you can offer testing access with with companies in their parking lots etc in a way that makes it really broadly accessible. I think the second is the traditional mechanism of acquiring test. Kits that have been approved sending the the the the data the material back for processing two labs that are part of the reimbursement stream of the particular health center. That does the testing people are doing what they always do. And doing it. In a way where they're going to get reimbursed based on the complex reimbursement system we have in place in the United States. And we need to rethink that. We need a different approach so that people can use university labs and might have more capacity right now.
"paul romer" Discussed on Amanpour
"And French. Troops were among those to pull out of Iraq. Recently they were there as part of the. Us led coalition against Isis Cove. In nineteen is now testing Iraq in new ways even as the country struggles with political turmoil and plunges in oil prices Baghdad has just appointed it stirred prime minister-designate in about as many months and that is the former intelligence chief who will work under Iraq's constitution leading the government but our next guest is under the constitution the president of your Barham Solly who's joining US exclusively from Baghdad. Good evening to you president. Saturday thank you very much indeed for joining us and we really want to know how this corona virus is beginning to move towards your area. Tell us tell us how you have been hit. While in denial coronavirus is cedar challenge to everybody and the Iraqis no exception. Perhaps in the case of Iraq is even more of a challenge. Our health infrastructure is not as developed as it should be however we have mobilized with the help of the United Nations and while to organization health authorities have mobilized early on and have imposed stringent measures including lockdowns. Fuse closing down borders. Suspending air travels these. I hope have helped delaying the curve or flattening the curve and we are working hard weeks have to be very vigilant remain vigilant not to be complacent about it but the impact obviously in terms of the economy in terms of the social dynamics has been quite huge and the and the ramifications of this disease is yet to be fully fully understood especially in countries like Iraq because the challenges are huge. But so far I would say. I'm very proud of her health sex ED and health workers. I met a number of them today. Young people who are really battling this and this is an opportunity to say to them and to work across the world. A big thank-you because they are truly heroes who are trying to save lives. I met one doctor young doctor today. Who was telling me that. He has not been to see his family for almost a month. Now these stories of courage that brings out the best of societies in these difficult challenging times. President Barroso I mean I remember very very clearly after the invasion of Iraq in two thousand and three those pictures where we saw everything being looted after the invasion including the hospitals. And we understand that you know with years and decades of sanctions before that invasion and now with the difficult economy as you say you really do have stressed healthcare system. What is your kind of nightmare scenario? Because obviously you have this big outbreak in neighboring Iran. You have an outbreak in neighboring Turkey. What what do you fear might happen to? Iraq perhaps because of concerns about the limited capabilities of our health say infrastructure. We have gone into high mobilization to enforce the curfews and the lockdowns and that and the closing down of the borders and limiting the movement of people between various cities and provinces Ecuadorian to not just the Ministry of Health according to the World Health Organization and others. These have been quite helpful. Obviously something also very significant Christiaan this heart of these Lama Quilt. Religious ceremonies have been suspended. Friday prayers being suspended I tell. Us astonished the Grand Ayatollah. The Maja in Iraq have come out within bay powerful statement that saying teething health regulations and directives is a religious duty it is out of situations of crisis and. I don't want again. Don't want to underestimate the challenge and I do not want to be complacent because we are still at the early stages of this terrible plaque about the best in society the best health workers the best in your security services have come out tweety to overcome the limitations of your health infrastructure and read some of the human stories that are told about. I see whatness is really just inspiring to inspiring Let me just ask you. Because you mentioned the holy sites and donny the Grand Ayatollah who has so much weight within the Shiite community. Not only in your country. But around the world you might have heard that the Iran's Iran's head of pilgrimages and Hodge has said they want Iran wants to start allowing visitors pilgrims to come to holy sites any rock your country in Syria given the outbreak. There in your. Are you going to allow that? This is a matter at the health. Ministry will be decided. I was with Health Minister. Today I think the indications that we have to be extremely careful we are not yet beyond the danger and we have to really assess the situation based on facts and evidence before making any any definitive judgment on this. There are lots of pressures on these and I know that the supreme religious authorities in Niger are keen to making sure that all the hell directives are at two because again as stated this is not on the health issue they considered a religious TIKI. And this is the writing to. Can I ask you about numbers? I mean you? You've praised your health. Services and the measures you've taken and according to Johns Hopkins with tracks the worldwide figures. You up until this week. Have Seventy eight reported deaths just over thirteen hundred cases. That's the official figures but as you know other news. Organizations have reported by talking to doctors and hospitals in your country that those figures are much higher and Iraq has suspended the journalistic license Reuters and find them. I what you think about that. And whether you're not a little bit worried the when you start the decision down on truth tellers you could have a situation like they had in China and things can just get out of control if there's transparency and I cannot disagree with you and the basic premise of your question because this has to be based on transparency and openness the numbers that we have from the eat health authorities documented cases. We have fourteen hundred of confirmed infections. We have had seventeen seventy eight deaths as he said and we have had so far. Seven hundred sixty six recovery. Today was quite an interesting case date. We have had no deaths. We have had forty four recovery's twenty two infections. I want to Ah said that. These are the documented cases as W. H. O. Has set a reported. Numbers or under reported cases is the norm in Iraq as well as in other countries because we have not been in a state of active surveillance early on we have started that a while back but the deputy show has also confirmed that has been absolutely no evidence of Deliberate Force affiliation. Of course you cannot hide the debts. He cannot hide the numbers of people who are being treated in hospitals as far as the suspension of Reuters license. It is a regrettable decision. This is a decision by the Independent Media Commission which is independent of the government From my vantage point you will not get me in a situation where I would defend that. I'm working together with our legal team to revoke that and manage the situation. I agree with you. This is not conducive to what we want to be. Transparent environment people distrust with the Reuters report because it implied a deliberate falsification of records by the government w United Nations agencies in their statement. They came out that absolutely not the case. It's amazing to hear you as president of the country. Say That and I thank you for looking into that because we're obviously concerned as truth tellers to get the truth out. So thank you for that Mr President. This is an excellent sports. You have there is going to be a strategic review. Obviously since the beginning of the year there's been a lot of trouble between Iraq and the United State starting with the assassination of the Iranian hawks leader in on your territory and then there was other action on your territory and the whole relationship between the. Us and Iraq has become very fraud. What do you think is going to transpire? Will the Iraqi parliament will the the powers that be decide that the US presence needs to leave or what? Where do you think this? This situation is going first and foremost. Let me put things in proper context? This has really uniquely challenging times for a country like Iraq. We have a political crisis. We have had our government resign for the last few months and we have trying to form a new government. We just appointed what people call the former head of intelligence with the head of intelligence of the country but this gentleman that has just been appointed was a former journalist a human rights activist and is quite quite well known in the human rights circle so usually in the Middle East. You when you talk about a former head of intelligence it comes down with certain connotations Mostafa Kadhem is of a different kind. I want to think of him. As a journalist as the thinker as human rights activists one thing is also very important about this whole process. Iraq is a country in profound transition transition. And we have many many problems that we deal with day in day out. We have been trying to put this government together but we have stuck to the constitution and we have stuck to the parliamentary process. I'm hopeful this time. We're going to have a government very soon because almost a national consensus about it as well as international and regional support for the appointment of Mr Controversy. One of the big issues before him will be in June to stop the strategic dialogue with the United States. The United States has been involved with Iraq in very active manner. Definitely since two thousand and three. This relationship needs to be put in a proper context in a proper way we have the strategic framework agreement. That what we call we need to elaborate on these including the status of American Coalition Forces. That are present in Iraq. I am sure by June hopefully with the new government we will have a very very good conversation good dialogue that will be a respective of Iraq's sovereignty. And let me come to this. Very important issue is the end if you go back two thousand and three to today the PROB- probably the most important factor white Iraq has not been entirely staple has not been entirely at peace with itself and at peace with its neighbors is the lack of a strong sovereign state. Iraq. State that he's able to affirm a rule of law in the country and to conduct balance relations with its neighbors as well as the international community including the United States based on respect of its sovereignty. I hope this team will be what will be the guiding principle for our dialogue at the end of the day our strategic partnership with the United States would Europe with. Our neighbors are very important. This country has seen so much conflict over the last four years. You've referred to two thousand and three. Luton I can tell you. Iraq has been in a state of conflicts since one thousand nine hundred seventy nine sanctions genocide. You name it. This country needs a reprieve. And I would say also with Iraq stabilize in my hope is that this will be a catalyst for a much better ordering the Middle East and you would know that better than most Barham. Sally thank you so much indeed for joining us this evening. Thank you very much. Thank you now. Lockdowns hit every economy deeply. But what if there was a way to save lives and Limit Economic Disruption Nobel? Prize winning economist. Paul Roma and president of the Rockefeller Foundation..
"paul romer" Discussed on Amanpour
"Don't be fooled beneath the quiet. There is no peace here but rather a war that is being waged by one of Europe's largest armed forces deployed on its own soil against an invisible enemy. Some from start President McCone declared war on the corona virus launching operation resilience in late March. From you lose the focus of the French outbreak as he visited a military hospital erected on a parking lot next to the overwhelmed civilian one the first such facility ever to be used in peace time to lessen the burden on the heartache east fronts rail infrastructure has been mobilized with TGV trains transporting the six towards available issues. The army also evacuating critical corona virus patients with the help of planes equipped with intensive care facilities so far only ever used to transport the war wounded in Afghanistan and Kosovo on the seas. Helicopter carriers are being deployed to the southern Indian Ocean and to the Caribbean to help. France's overseas territories warships also ferrying patients to the mainland. The operation placing France's military in an unprecedented peacetime role. But even the mightiest are vulnerable. The French Navy's flagship. The shoulder goal aircraft carrier force back to port for disinfection on Sunday after nearly fifty onboard tested positive for the corona virus on Monday night Emmanuel macron spoke to that now universally felt sense of fragility. This moment reminds us that we're vulnerable. No doubt we had forgotten. Let us in this moment. Leave the World Jordan. Offs the ideologies. Not as all reinvent ourselves as I will first of all every evening Franz continues to applaud the real heroes of this crisis. The medical workers fighting an enemy. That has already killed fifteen thousand people in this country alone. Municipal CNN Pila fronts. As the corona virus pandemic has four schools across the country to close teachers are scrambling to get their curriculum and their students. Online I'm poppy harlow in this week on boss files I talked to. Two leaders are supporting those teachers students and their parents during this crisis Russia Johnny the founder and CEO of girls who code and Joe Holland. The CEO of teachers pay teachers. They talked to me about how their organizations are working to help the most vulnerable students during this uncertain time. You can listen to the latest episode of Boss Files. Wherever you get your podcasts. You're about to seize your Keel. O.`Neil like you've never him before this show about my life. Just because I have more than the average guy doesn't mean I'm better than the average Guy Jack like all new Thursdays at nine on. Tnt in response to the corona virus outbreak hauer industry leaders thinking about the long term health of their business. How are they ensuring the.
"paul romer" Discussed on Amanpour
"Give out three hundred fifty billion dollars of loans and we want him to do an instantaneous process. On top of that the large banks have substantial rules and regulations that they're having to abide by weather trying to implement these practices the Federal Reserve. And all the other regulators in the United States although they've done a spectacular job on providing liquidity for for the system. They haven't relinquished. All of the regulations that stand in the way of banks acting quickly banks are not meant to act quickly. Banks are meant to be very decisive and very deliberate in the way they act and we've put banks position where they're supposed to act quickly. That's now how banks are designed in this day and age right in the meantime though the National Federation of Independent businesses you will know this organization found that at least seventy percent of the small businesses. Who Need it who've tried to apply for these federal loans have a failing thousands and thousands of failing JUTA technical glitches? And the like. So if you were still let's I just address the elephant in the room getting engage in politics. But there's been a huge amount of you know. Gee whiz criticism about the way these briefings that the president is holding every are unfolding. At first. They were considered very good and very useful now. Even the Wall Street Journal has got into the into the issue here. Basically saying the briefings began as a good idea to educate the public about the dangers of the virus. But sometime in the last three weeks Mr Trump seems truth concluded. The briefings should be a showcase for him. The president's outbursts against his political critics notably off key at this moment. This isn't impeachment and cove in one thousand nine hundred and shifty shifty. It's a once in a century threat to American life and livelihood. So was your response to that. But most of the point given your economic advice. What would you advise that briefing to be used for at a time like this? Look I think the president does need to talk about how we're going to reopen the economy? And this idea of a date certain and this idea that we're going to have a big bang. I don't think that's written. I think the president needs to talk about how we're going to open the economy and how we're going to do it methodically and how every citizen is going to have a role to play and how we're all. GonNa have to be a little bit patient but if the more patient we have in the more with article. We aren't doing this the better. It's going to be for all of us. Look we're going to get certain stores open but we're only going to allow certain amount of people and so yes. You're going to have to wait outside. We're going to open restaurants but we're going to ask restaurants the run it. I don't know fifty percent of capacity so take half the tables out. Maybe take two thirds of the tables out and have a third of the tables and so people are spaced in the restaurant. And there's lots of space so you won't be able to going to table when you want. But at least the restaurant will be open operating. The president should be talking about those things and saying we'll run the restaurants and a third capacity for a month and after a month we'll go to fifty percent of capacity and after a month we'll go to another in the third month we'll go to eighty percent capacity and month four. We'll be back one hundred percent capacity and those are what the president should be talking about when he gets on evenings when he talks about the economy. I think the president has done a very good job working with Congress and getting appropriations done and getting money for US citizens. And so. I do give them very good. Good marks on what they've done to stimulate. You know the the spending ability people to stay home remember. We've asked ninety seven percent of our population in the United States to stay home and take themselves out of the United States economy. We are also going to ask them to reenter the economy at some point. But we're going to ask them to reenter the economy on a slow and methodical basis. And that's what the rise mentioned talk so while so to my my point. I'm still trying to understand what you how you analyze the performance up there because part of this is also from all the figures we're seeing is to encourage confidence in people people who've been under lockdown. Yes they're worried about their their own finances and the general economy but they're also going to be quite scared about the idea of getting back into the workforce I know you've talked about it and other business leaders have so when the president uses like he did on Monday night. The White House podium as a political rally ran a video that I mean. People are comparing to North Korea in their extreme commentary on it as a propaganda device is that what is appropriate. Is it seemly? Is it going to help the people who need the most reassurance from the White House podium I think we're at the point now where the vast majority of Americans understand the Kovic virus pandemic that we're living in and I think they understand their role? I think we understand. Stay at home I think. We understand social distancing. I think we understand flattening. Macara is. They're all new words that we we none of us had heard of the beginning of the year. Now we understand them and we have a vivid understanding of what they are. I think the president now needs to use his time in the White House. Briefing Room to talk about what's ahead of us and where we're going next. And He needs to talk about the slow methodical reopening of the economy that to me is what the Americans have not heard about. We've not talked about how we're going to methodically. Opened the economy. How WE'RE GONNA protect people how we're going to let the baseball season start? But we're GonNa let the baseball season start with no fans in the stadium. But you're going to have the ability to watch sports again. We might let the National Basketball Association play again. We might let football or soccer games happen again. But YOU'RE GONNA WATCH THEM ON TV. You're not going to go to the stadium but a month from now. We may let a thousand or two thousand and three thousand fans in the stadium. I think his time would be very wisely. Used to lay out. A blueprint a high level group blueprint on how we're going to achieve that. So do I mean you were former top economic advisor in the White House? Do you have a phone linked to him? Can you tell him this? You tell the secretary of the Treasury or other people in the White House who you may know on this issue you able to advise so I have made myself available to anyone who in Washington that wants to talk. I haven't talking to people in the White House and I have been delivering. My thoughts as openly and candidly even more can lead to them. As as I am to you. So Mike Bought. These are not secret is what? I'm telling you I'm telling them all right. Okay so I want to know what you think of. The one of the sort of rationalizations descriptions of the president has made about opening up. Who's in charge? He says the president has total power. He's got himself into a big Cathal with governors and his the sound bite. That's relevant when somebody's the president of the United States. The Authority is.
"paul romer" Discussed on Amanpour
"Our health heroes. How World War? Two veteran went above and beyond by going round and round. Welcome to the program. I'm Christiane Amanpour reporting from home in London. The world approaches two million corona virus confirmed cases. Now it's a new milestone that comes as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns that the United States outbreak could peak this week. Meantime a worrying economic diagnosis from the International Monetary Fund which is predicting the world economy could shrink will shrink by three percent this year. The IMF says the quote. Great Lockdown will cause the biggest downturn since the Great Depression of the nineteen thirties before a partial rebound might be possible in two thousand nine hundred twenty one well. President trump is vowing to reopen the world's largest economy the US potentially by May first a time line that Nobel prize winning economist. Paul Krugman told us on this program last night would be crazy and Dr Antony fouled chief of course is on the president's own rotavirus task force says may I would be overly optimistic. So let's discuss this joining me now. Is Gary Cohn? He's formerly the chief economic advisor to President Trump. He also was president of the banking giant. Goldman Sachs Gary Cohn. Welcome to the program. I hear your phone television. These things happen. We're all we're all in difficult situations but let me ask you first to react to the president saying that. He wants to reopen the economy. You heard him say with the Big Bang hopefully soon may I is their target you heard what fouled she said and Krugman said what do you think about a May I target Christiane first of all? Thanks for having me. I don't think there's a big bang here. I think we have to approach. This is a very incremental approach. First of all we've got make sure we can test and I think testing is the key once we start reopening the economy. We're going to have to make sure that we can test people and test people quite aggressively because the minute we start seeing early signs of infection. We're GONNA WANNA make sure we can capture that and capture that early so we don't get a re- spread or reinfection of the whole economy and half the shut it down again. I think that's imperative next. We're going to have to be very incremental about the way we reopen the economy. A small store a neighborhood with one or two employees has one or two customers in the shop at time. They're gonNA take one approach a large company that has twenty thousand people coming in. It's building riding elevators up and down. They're going to have to take a completely different approach. They're going to have to segment their workforce where certain people come in on a Monday in the morning. Certain people come in Monday in the afternoon and a different crew comes in Tuesday morning Tuesday afternoon and then the Monday crowd repeats on Wednesday. So they make sure that their workforce is safe and if some of their workforce get sick. They're not cross contaminating. The rest of their workforce. I think this is going to be very incremental. The way we open up our economy. But that's a pretty you know important prescription. We've always thought about this. And I mean the idea of relay races so to speak as you've laid out first of all that's a lot of workforce right or or war or they're going to companies are going to have to make all sorts of decisions about people. What do you think is going to happen to the nitty seventeen million who signed up for unemployment in the last three weeks alone so people have signed up unemployment because they need basic wages and basic income? Replacement THE CARES. Dak which remember was introduced on March twenty second and only about half the money to small businesses out today if we get the money out into the economy. We're going to take people back off on employment and they're going to re rejoin the company that they were working for which is really important. We need that attachment back to the companies. They were working for so people know their catch their companies. They will know where they're going back to work. That is really important that we get people back at tach. Their companies we get their wages replaced. We get their healthcare replace. So they can buy food. They can buy their necessities. They can pay their rent. They can pay their utilities. That's the first thing that has to happen number. Two we get. We get testing in place which has to happen. And we've got a big backlog worldwide that we have to catch up. We have to catch him the backlog and we have to get front leaning on testing number three weaken. Then start working on getting people. Back into the workforce. But it's not that hard. A company can stagger their workforce so people comment on staggered shifts so AF. They're riding public transportation. We're not forcing a lot of people into public transportation. All at once so people come in at six people come in at seven people come in at eight. It will come at nine people coming to ten. It will come in at eleven and then people start leaving by two or three. And you stagger the workforce like that. This is not that hard to do and by the way it's much better have people coming in even on staggered shifts and even working four days a week or three days a week then not working at all. That's how we're going to have to get the on me back. We're not GONNA get everyone coming in at eight o'clock or nine o'clock in the morning on the first day piling into buses and piling into subways and going into taxes. It's not practical. It's just won't work. We will probably reinfect so many people they'll have to go shut down the economy again and that to me is the worst case outcome right. I mean that could cause an even worse economic crisis than the one. That's facing right now but I wanNA pick you up and ask you about one of the things you said just now this this money. That's meant to help people small businesses etcetera. It's apparently being very slow to reach the people who need it and the mechanics of trying to get trying to apply for. It is very very slow and people are running out of money now and small businesses running out of money. Now what would you say and advise the White House the government to speed this up since his? You put it very high opinion on your list of what has to happen now. The government has to figure out how to get this money out and get it out as quick as possible. I've been saying this for the better part of a month just because we pass legislation doesn't fix the problem. This execution problem is not a legislation problem anymore. We've legislated the money. We appropriated the money. The money is there now. We have to get the money into the hands of hard working Americans so they can live their life. They can buy their groceries. They can buy their essential. There are easier ways to do this. We have made this more difficult than it needs to be. We are forcing banks into very uncomfortable situations by forcing them into the small business loan mechanism. Many large banks have never been hard..
"paul romer" Discussed on Marketplace Tech with Molly Wood
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by. Indeed, are you hiring with? Indeed, you can post job in minutes set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist. Qualified candidates using an online dashboard get started today and indeed dot com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace. And buy evidence evident provides a simple secure platform that lets businesses confidently know who they're dealing with without the risk and expense of handling sensitive personal data from identity and credential verifications to background checks and everything in between. Businesses of all sizes can get the answers they need easily and securely visit evident ide- dot com slash tech to sign up and start running verifications today. Wanna know how an economist things will get more privacy from big tech taxes from American public media. This is marketplace tech demystifying the digital economy. I'm Ali would. This week. Google showed off lots of new privacy oriented, tools, and products and user agreements at its big developer conference Google. I o apple is marketing privacy Facebook as promising privacy. Eventually federal regulators are still trying to figure out privacy laws and regulations, but Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Romer says company promises and even regulations won't actually change anything because the ad supported business model is what's broken? He argued in the New York Times this week that the US should tax revenue from targeted advertising, we called Paul rumoured to talk more about this idea in quality assurance the segment where we take a deeper look at big tech story. He says companies need to creatively. Evolve their businesses boo ad model was very important it made possible. The emergence of Google and Facebook and supported open source software. So it was very valuable it a crucial point in time. But we've outlived the usefulness of this model we need to move. On what we're stuck in right now is a bad equilibrium. And we got us think creatively about how are we going to get back to the vision? And the optimism that many of us had when we first saw the potential of digital. Well, then tell me more about the creative solutions that they might come up with to change the business model one of the models. That works is a subscription model. People pay to have access to a music service to game supplier of this lots of workable subscription models. If you tax Adra eventually it'll be in the interest of these firms to develop subscription models. The other thing that is if you make that tax on the ad revenue. Progressive what happens is you're gonna end up with a version of the remember the marriage penalty onto p with income get married and their total tax Bill goes up with progressive taxation. We want a marriage penalty in the market because if two firms joined together, we want their total tax Bill to go up because we don't want more big firms would actually. Like to have lots more small ones. So really creative innovative firm that keeps you know, developing new products, it can just off independent firms get the value when it when it's been those off and keep the total tax Bill though by not letting any one of them get too big. There is I wonder what you there is. Also, an argument though, that subscription models are themselves kind of inherently regressive, and that increasingly actually we're finding that access to good information is almost based on your income level. And I wonder what what your responses to that? If this would put information services out of reach. I'm sorry. I just have trouble with this idea that these firms her in jeopardy tens of billion dollars for a relatively small number of people were doing this as a an effective policy for redistribution. Just I just don't think that that argument you passes the left. That's not what I'm arguing. I'm just saying that a lot of information is now stored within these platforms that people may no longer be able to access if they have to pay for it. But but look I mean who who really provided the world's information to everybody on earth Wikipedia. Right. And if you're asking what could we do to make the digital world work for people? You know, the Wikipedia model is great. It's a donation model a subscription model would work a combination of subscriptions and donations on all of those things are possible. This ad model is not helping the users and or they wouldn't be called users. And it's not helping the most vulnerable users. Either is the business model the problem here. Or is it the scale is that the size of these companies always both, but the point of progressive revenue tax is that you create incentives both for breakup, you can allies. The acquisitions and you encourage the development of models where the customers are customers. And they know what they're giving up and they can compare that with the services they get back. I'd rather live in a world where firms don't have these enormous incentives to spy on individuals. So if we had that at advertising model that didn't involve all of this, you know, deep surveillance of individuals. I'd be more comfortable with that. I still think a firm that's collecting revenue on that scale is probably not a healthy thing for a society where we want to have competition and free discourse. And you know, freedom to take unpopular stands Paul Marilyn the Nobel prize in economics in twenty eighteen the union has also been debating at three percent tax on digital ad revenue for big tech companies.
Nobel economist Paul Romer says the path to tech privacy may be taxes
"Week. Google showed off lots of new privacy oriented, tools, and products and user agreements at its big developer conference Google. I o apple is marketing privacy Facebook as promising privacy. Eventually federal regulators are still trying to figure out privacy laws and regulations, but Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Romer says company promises and even regulations won't actually change anything because the ad supported business model is what's broken? He argued in the New York Times this week that the US should tax revenue from targeted advertising, we called Paul rumoured to talk more about this idea in quality assurance the segment where we take a deeper look at big tech story. He says companies need to creatively. Evolve their businesses boo ad model was very important it made possible. The emergence of Google and Facebook and supported open source software. So it was very valuable it a crucial point in time. But we've outlived the usefulness of this model we need to move. On what we're stuck in right now is a bad equilibrium. And we got us think creatively about how are we going to get back to the vision? And the optimism that many of us had when we first saw the potential of digital. Well, then tell me more about the creative solutions that they might come up with to change the business model one of the models. That works is a subscription model. People pay to have access to a music service to game supplier of this lots of workable subscription models. If you tax Adra eventually it'll be in the interest of these firms to develop subscription models. The other thing that is if you make that tax on the ad revenue. Progressive what happens is you're gonna end up with a version of the remember the marriage penalty onto p with income get married and their total tax Bill goes up with progressive taxation. We want a marriage penalty in the market because if two firms joined together, we want their total tax Bill to go up because we don't want more big firms would actually. Like to have lots more small ones. So really creative innovative firm that keeps you know, developing new products, it can just off independent firms get the value when it when it's been those off and keep the total tax Bill though by not letting any one of them get too big. There is I wonder what you there is. Also, an argument though, that subscription models are themselves kind of inherently regressive, and that increasingly actually we're finding that access to good information is almost based on your income level. And I wonder what what your responses to that? If this would put information services out of reach. I'm sorry. I just have trouble with this idea that these firms her in jeopardy tens of billion dollars for a relatively small number of people were doing this as a an effective policy for redistribution. Just I just don't think that that argument you passes the left. That's not what I'm arguing. I'm just saying that a lot of information is now stored within these platforms that people may no longer be able to access if they have to pay for it. But but look I mean who who really provided the world's information to everybody on earth Wikipedia. Right. And if you're asking what could we do to make the digital world work for people? You know, the Wikipedia model is great. It's a donation model a subscription model would work a combination of subscriptions and donations on all of those things are possible. This ad model is not helping the users and or they wouldn't be called users. And it's not helping the most vulnerable users. Either is the business model the problem here. Or is it the scale is that the size of these companies always both, but the point of progressive revenue tax is that you create incentives both for breakup, you can allies. The acquisitions and you encourage the development of models where the customers are customers. And they know what they're giving up and they can compare that with the services they get back. I'd rather live in a world where firms don't have these enormous incentives to spy on individuals. So if we had that at advertising model that didn't involve all of this, you know, deep surveillance of individuals. I'd be more comfortable with that. I still think a firm that's collecting revenue on that scale is probably not a healthy thing for a society where we want to have competition and free discourse. And you know, freedom to take unpopular
"paul romer" Discussed on KCBS All News
"KCBS news time nine twenty one. Saying big tech platforms like Facebook and Google have created a haven for dangerous misinformation and hate speech that has undermined trust in democratic institutions. No by Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Romer is proposing taxing big tech revenue from targeted digital ads in an op Ed for the New York Times rumor says the tax would give the company's real incentive to change their business models to discuss this more, Mr. Romer spoke with KCBS, STAN Bunger and Susan Lee Taylor, why will attacks work better than antitrust law or regulatory actions as others are proposing. I we know that people respond to incentive. Something or they try and avoid the tax witness case with mutant pursue a business model that doesn't involve these targeted digital the problem with and regulation are that. They're just not working, and they're also leading us to talk about things like who's going to be into sensor which are assigned to something's gone terribly wrong. If I'm reading you correctly, your suggestion is that what the companies would do to keep keep making money would be to switch over to a subscription model. But we've seen so far that free generally trumps everything when it comes to the internet. How would you deal with that? How did that happen? Like complaining about socialism. Talking about taxes and transfers, but like, you know, what what happened with the idea that the market works because people pay for things that they that they want. So I think we gotta get back to the what the foundation of what what make markets work, some of these companies are so humongous. What if their profit is greater than the tax? And they just, you know, saying, okay, we'll pay the tax. Well, then it depends on how high the tax rate is. So this is this is what we call one of those big ideas. Right. Do you think this can happen? Or is this an attempt of spur conversation around the value positive or negative of this targeted digital advertising? Why do I have to choose a fair question? I want to start this conversation. But I also think it's actually entirely practical part of the value of this idea is that a single state could tack these targeted digital ad revenues from their own citizens. So we can have the the power of this. You know, the using the state says the laboratories of democracy, let different states try methods one try this tax another ca try some kind of like legalistic prohibitions, which which works better. There's a sizable contingent in the United States that automatically recoils when they hear the word tax how he can win those folks over. Well, look, the good thing is I'm not running for office. I don't have to worry about my popularity tanking which I'm sure it will. But it is worth emphasizing that this is a case where you don't want attacks to collect revenue in the best case, there's no revenue collected from this tax because firms stopped doing the things that we want them to stop doing. And there's two ways they could avoid it under this system. They either switch to subscriptions or they break themselves up, and you give a zero tax exemption for up to a billion in revenue per year in it. You don't pay any tax. But you got a company that's getting billion a year. Well, then it it might wanna break itself up into some smaller firms that don't that's Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Romer KCBS news time nine twenty five MoneyWatch Jason Brooks trae jitters weighed on stocks for the second straight day, the latest trigger for market uncertainty comes from US Trade Representative Robert lighthizer who says it appears China is reneging on prior commitments in the negotiations. This comes with China's lead negotiator coming to Washington for two days of talks on Thursday and Friday and under the threat of higher tariffs from President Trump. If there isn't significant progress in those talks, the Dow plummeted four hundred seventy three points to twenty five thousand nine hundred sixty five the NASDAQ brought one hundred fifty nine..
"paul romer" Discussed on EconTalk
"This is this oughta make you worry. And I also think that in science the burden of proof for integrity lies with the individual not with me. This is not a case of, you know, a legalistic right to do a job until you know, the definitive proof that they're not qualified women in a certain pattern of facts merged that raised doubts in my mind about know, the integrity of some of the people involved minute is that in my job. As a scientist is the I have concerns about the integrity of this process. Now, let's pull back from the fact about what happened in Chile. What you know? How's the doing business report constructed? I mean talk about the way the Bank responded. They commissioned an audit. They described on maybe Simeon described as he was talking about that particular. This was for the again, November twenty seven. I think it was before maybe not. But yeah. Yeah. That was before you. So they commissioned an audit which has a report was by. Got him. We forget Randall Mark has a report the rental wrote, which is which is pretty reasonable, basically says we don't think rumors, right. But. But the Bank did not release the underlying work that Randall had done looking at the different indices like when I left the Bank. I actually taught myself python and put the code out on the internet and said, look, here's how you could construct the doing business index Chile without changing the components that go into the index. Here's how they actually do it noticed the difference that there's virtually no change in the extra chilly, if you don't change the components in the index. And so I didn't even take a phone call from Randall when they were looking at this because I thought they should do the report on everything I had done on this issue was publicly visible. That's the way it's supposed to work in science Bank wrote this report, which was the basis for a summary by Randall, which was the basis for PR, you know, a press release which said, oh, you know, roamers wrong. There's no problem here. They would not release the underlying analysis, and I just think that's. Kind of the. Indicative of all of the problems with the intellectual culture at the Bank. And I think the questionable value of the stuff that they call research that you know, I think you just can't trust if they're going to comply with the most basic kind of practices about transparency nothing sensitive about these numbers. And it was really just a question of how you weight them when you can prove these indices, and basically their criticism be chilly was basically, look it when you change all the components in the end ex all these countries are moving up and down all the time. So there's nothing unusual about Chile. I still was a little worried about the, you know, the direction -ality, but still there is a kind of a problem here. But the fact that they wouldn't release the underlying data is I think really telling point quick thing. I wanted to ask you before we when we're talking before about macroeconomics. Did you learn anything from the great recession? Do you think the professional learned anything? Well. I think the first thing is I think we've learned some humility. I think we we did not intimate the severity of the crisis. And so the confidence we had before the crisis was misplaced. We should have been more in a more humble about how much we really knew. I think we've also acquired more data which suggests that the financial sector is very dangerous and the cost of the world are extraordinarily high. I I mean, it sounds like a joke. But I actually mean it literally I think if you quantify the losses from the financial sector and set them along side the losses of nuclear power. The sector's done much more harm with its accidents. The nuclear power stunned, and why is it that we have such radically different presumptions about the role of regulation or these two these two industries the answer to that. Love quoting..
"paul romer" Discussed on EconTalk
"So you tell them what you know, you bring an experts who fill in the details that can be a very valuable function ended. It may have been critical to the path that China took towards the rapid gross that it's it's enjoyed. I should mention that you know, the other thing Deng Xiaoping did was create these special zones of which Sinjin was I think the most successful really the four only engine success which engine was a phenomenal success. And so having people who told them, this is how you manage inflation. If you liberalize and in this separate idea about we're going to try and reforms on those things where the the keys in them in China, but hug factor the Bank. The question is how many times as it actually served that function? There are lots of reports that keep the Bank. Use. There's a lot of talk about we have to be engaged and ongoing loan projects. Sure that somebody else could finance this bridge instead of us. But if we're engaged we know the context will be ready to provide advice, but I was actually very disappointed at how hard it was anybody to come up with a case where the pink actually provided useful advice, which changed the policy direction. And in a way that was that was benefit. We had two guests on. About a year and a half ago. Simon Jan cough and met Werner talking about the doing business report that the World Bank produces in. It's an attachment attempt to quantify the business climate the ability to cut through red tape. They -bility to open a business things that are basic, and you know, there's a one can debate whether those kind of the two it was Simeon. Yes. Thank you doing. And then Then. we wonder who's the head of the atlas he's not a World Bank person. He's the head of the atlas network which would. Free market think tanks outside the United States in the world. Okay. And their fans of that report. And and I'm I'm not in general fans of that kind of aggregate, and I'm not a fan of the freedom measures, particularly nice friends of mine work on those in God bless them. But I don't those are fraught with measurement challenges, and he's manipulated. And you got entangled with some of that. So talk about okay. Well to put this in the larger context, I remember I was ready to leave the Bank. I had a concern about a fact that I think needed to be out in the open and be transparent and part of how I when they said you can't resign. I'm just going to newspapers talk about my concern. And then they said, and then they said you have to resign. Well, that's what I wanted to do. So, but here was it was the fact I I was worried about the possibility. Ability that some kind of ideological political views had distorted the numbers that were reported a from in the doing business report in particular. I was very worried about a pattern in Chile where again could have been just random chance. But doing business ranking moved down, you know, every year when the party of the centre-left was in control and moved up every year when the party of the center right was in control. Clan policies. Right. Well, but if what what turns out is if you hold the mirrors of what's going on in Chile constant. I'm all those changes virtually all those go away. So it's like saying, okay Chileans are weaker this year because they can only do twenty push ups, and you say, wait a minute last year. You said Chileans were the Stringfellow because it was chips instead of push-up since while we're using push ups this year. And then it's, you know, it's, you know, it's like lunges your after they kept changing the the measures that went into this doing business ranking in if you just hold constant imagers, most of these changes went away. So good. Yeah..
"paul romer" Discussed on EconTalk
"And I think that is actually intellectually bankrupt. But I'm curious what you think Paul well bankrupt. I might attorney like distance myself from the like the judgmental or moralistic kind of on the table there. But the equivalent thing when we could say is that it it's unrealistic or it's inaccurate to say that the summaries that most people provide of data are free of beliefs about policy or free of beliefs about the underlying causal mechanisms. So I think we need to be skeptical of people who say oh my data summary. You know activities were, you know, penalty free model free. Policy free and just you can just take my results in work at work with them. I think we need to look carefully at all the steps in the constructions data and just basically look empirically to see what if a bunch of different people went through the same process of summarising, the data would they all come into the end. They were supposed to invest case they were working independently would they all come to the same results. And if not why not and then trying to figure out what what we need to do to reflect the lack of consensus about how to summer, it's well said, I I probably mentioned this before on the program. But I was once I don't go to many seminars anymore. But I was at one recently where someone made some rather bold claims about the magnitude of some relationship between say the financial sector and change ADP or growth rates, and I found them unlikely implausible, but that doesn't matter. I just but I asked that innocent question, I said, how many regressions did you run to get that result? I don't want an. I don't know. I don't want to hear why these are the right? Variables yet. It'd like to hear that too. But before we get there just like how many did you run? Did you run twelve thousand three hundred and eventually I know how and I asked how many of them found this result because it's okay? If if you do three hundred and two hundred ninety five show the same thing, it's just a question magnitude, and what else is in the in the soup. But otherwise, I kinda see it was in the kitchen. How did he take question? He or she. Hey, and he was shocked. Really taken aback by it. But I wrecked to all young economists out there listening in who would go to a lot of empirical seminars than I do. Please ask that question. Let's let's turn to the your experience. Two things one. I'm gonna make a plug for a book by a colleague colleague at Berkeley, Ted McGill, Ted and his co authors have a new book about really kind bring more transparency and reproducibility to to social science, and it's it's just coming out from Berkeley. And it's it's great because it's very practical and pragmatic. It just says here's some things we could do keep track of for example, how much you know, pre-testing has been done on the data. How can we, you know, reset our, you know, standards of significant in light of pre-testing, and I think with technology. There's actually a lot of ways to do do more on this on this stopping. So so I can't I can't remember the name of the book, but a hits coming out at your interested in your word. You know, people should be worried about these these issues. I think I at some point it could become a vulnerability for all of social science. If you know if we keep keeps coming out that there's weaknesses in our empirical methods, or you know, things that aren't reproducible then like the whole integrity of our, you know, our disciplined gets called into question. Here's a title, transparent and reproducible social science research who could be against that. Well, you know, a long time ago. Ed Lima wrote a paper called taking the con- out of a condom attracts, and it should have transformed Heracles economics and did not he's you know, he's still work at it. Can't hurt. I wanna turn to the World Bank. You were there for about a little over year year and a half or so you're a quarter..
"paul romer" Discussed on EconTalk
"But one of the frustrations over my career, and you kind of know these guys that were friends class. Mates. You know, I like them as people one of my frustrations has been this failure to engage win. Someone like me raises. The question about the logic of argument or the telling thing for me about the pseudoscience. Here was the in attention to data. They just stopped letting evidence be the, you know, the decider of what's going on in the world theory, somehow became the, you know, the definitive way too stylish what's going on. I felt like was I felt like there was just a unwillingness to even engage with will intended. Critique. And so, you know, the the assertion that this poll pattern of behavior was unacceptable and the use of sarcasm was my attempt to. To really coal attention to this in say, it's if I'm right? This is a very serious problem. We need something about it. I because it's it's kind of like somebody pulls the fire alarm if you do it, and it's a false alarm personnel to pay. And so I think there's a consensus that I was just flat out wrong and not just wrong. It's good macroeconomics. But I was wrong cues them. Not engaging science. I should I pay a big reputational price for that. I really think that just don't want this to be an everyday thing. But on the other hand, I do feel like I think, I'm right? And I think it's something deserves deserves some attention. And unfortunately, I think deserves attention even if it hurts the feelings or upsets people that I like in care about I think what we're doing is is more important than to start our feelings. And whether we get the right answers. Really matters. So I have a similar issue. And I don't I don't know if you wanna weigh in, and I'm just gonna mention it and a little bit of a confession my listeners who heard me bring this up any times. I think it's come to be commonly believed by the public and by vary sought journalists, and at least on paper, many, brilliant communists, that the average American has made no economic progress for the last forty years, and there's data to support that of course. And I argue that data's flawed in. That's an interesting question. You can debate how flawed it is whether the CPI's Berkeley measured the rate of inflation, the problem, I have is that there are other data that show progress, and that's I just doesn't engage. It doesn't put it in their paper might be an note they might say to play out. So and so has done made some different assumptions say about thinking about say the growth in. Equality? We quote, everyone knows is grown dramatically. And yet if you make different assumptions about family size, and how you measure non monetary benefits fringe benefits and other things you get a it's not like, oh, you know, it changes by ten percent. You get like a two-thirds reduction. So it really matters. And if you're scientists, you shouldn't just say, oh, they're other opt- their other paintings or data even mention them. You should be grappling with them and trying to understand why get different results in one of sumptious than another. And I don't want to accuse those people of having an agenda, and I hate that that's the ad hominem side. And and I don't even wanna cues them of of being wedded to their own series. Which is part of what you were writing about that after a while become religious about about the beliefs. You have about how the world works in which would be otherwise be a science. But it's it's scary because it matters. Well, I think the kinds of things when do any area is I try and do a kind of a census in NC. Do we think it's possible to have a consensus about the facts that we might wrecking? We don't have a consensus yet. But is that possible there exist facts, and we could reach a consensus about those. I think if people don't agree on that. Then you really got trouble. I think in this area. I think people would agree. I'm betting that in some cases..
"paul romer" Discussed on EconTalk
"Is a very funny effect on me because it sort of like hit me like a like a jolt of electronic which was. Yep. What are these productivity shocks? These things are just kind of like made up in the models. And so I started calling in the paper like flip phlogiston was like imagine anything in physicist referred to at some point. And it it made me realize that there was something really deeply wrong. I think with the style explanation their NFL responsible in some sense as macro-economists I didn't do business cycle theory. But I, you know, I have I'm a macro economist, I have some responsibility for the profession, I think others of should have been critical of the style explanation long before the time when this was assistant was was raised for me. So I shifted from my kind of critique that was specific to grow theory in math into critique of how macro-economists the, you know, kind of default leading a group of macro-economy profession were doing their work. And. Big made what what is a I think very harsh critique of their approach that it was not just that they were coming to the wrong answers. But more in a more fundamental sense. They were not following the practice of science. They had really departed from science. I called it pseudoscience. And I think this is this is really a version of ad hominem attack. You know, it's the kind of criticism you don't want to make lightly. You don't want to encourage, you know, easily. But on the other hand, if you think you've gotten to the point where this is what's going on? I think other members of the profession have responsibility to. You know? Raise their hands and say we need to stop. And and look at this. So in that, and I should be clear that paper I still haven't published because it was so critical. It's was in circulated draft form, but it still is out the journal much like the publish it. I think I need to go ahead, and publish it. But I only said that I think the problem macro is not just that the answers are wrong. I think they've stopped doing science and give some illustrations of what I thought about that. I also did something I've never done before the paper, and I generally disapprove of which is to use sarcasm as a way to criticize the results of this group to biding, hyper to a little bit acerbic not I've seen worse, but it's got a little bit. But I generally don't like that easy recourse. That's just like, I don't like at hominem argument. But one of the frustrations over my career, and you kind of know these guys that were friends class. Mates. You know, I like them as people.
"paul romer" Discussed on EconTalk
"So however, kind of go about their work, and what they measure what data they look at much the ticks, they consider and so forth. I think it would be good. If we could at least allow for the possibility that makes sense to say as the science. It would be good. If we could invest in more values of this type, like more, courtesy or more more value on a reputation for honesty. Now, it still leaves you with some practical questions like can you actually change values in a social context, it's hard? But you know, if one could and historically I think societies have sometimes it's important to be able to talk about the real benefits that could come from different sets of, you know, prevailing moral beliefs. I think they matter of time. And I think all that's correct. Except for maybe the last part, which is. Implication, we could do something about it. I think it's I think most people would agree that it's better to live in a world of trust than a world without trust. If people are generally, honest about trust each other. It's alternate. Right. 'cause cheaters explained that in the world of trust is great for cheaters. And there's two Peters the trust of apparatus. But I think most of us agree that those those intrinsic motivations are often much more effective than extra sick. Once. Whether you know, it's prices are punishment or very types of cost benefits that that we might impose on each other. I think the challenge is like you said we we don't really know how to get there from here. And we might disagree about what they are and so- civilization. It seems to me is just the attempt of what we would normally call market forces. But they're not typical ones their norms and social pressures, various kinds ideologies movements fiction, all kinds. Of stuff that affects how people get the world. And then things emerge out of that that some work better than others, the ones that were better tend to create better societies, but it's a pretty blunt system. She could have pretty functional society that works for a long time where the little trust and people struggling suffer. If they were relative to a different equa liberate right within their that culture. But is not much to do about. It's pretty hard to change. We don't understand better rate. It says we don't understand that process for. Well. If we did maybe we could do something about it. Well, I can draw link to charter cities for minute. This was part of it was on my mind. I was thinking about charter cities. And let's give what they Arctic examined. For people who don't. Okay. But but I set it up. So let's imagine let's take a people in Greece. After the midst of the crisis. It's quite possible that most people in Greece would say to themselves. I would really rather live in a society where everybody feels like it's right to pay taxes, and they feel shame. If they don't end if is uncovered that somebody didn't pay taxes, there's social, you know, disregard loss of status for that person. Now, a personal in Greece might type, but I don't live in that society. If I just try and pay my taxes and people find out they'll think I'm an idiot, and I don't know how to change them. And so they might say boy, there's nothing we can do about fact that you know. So it's everybody thinks you should pay taxes in Greece. They don't, but but what we have to think about now is not so much competition within one of these equal area but competition between people can move from Greece to Switzerland. We. We know that when you take somebody who had like the Greek values that hey, it's it's kind of a game to cheat. And everybody thinks you're cool. You move that person Switzerland and pretty soon they're going to think it's bad that she'd on your taxes, and they're gonna think you're supposed to wait for the light to say, you know, walk before you cross the street. So so I think you need to start thinking about competition between different social groups to think of these dynamics of of norms. Now, what was the idea of charter cities?.
"paul romer" Discussed on C-SPAN Radio
"I mean government is this radical concept is actually supposed to serve the people, you know, rather than the other way around. So there are lots of. Ideas, better ways to do things that come. But it does require. Not tweaking the system you can't go into a jungle with a pair of sheers and make it into a kind of a straight boulevard. Paul Romer, the recent Nobel prize winner is made this point that basically the only way you succeed with failed institutions is you create a new is to to you keep the constitution you keep the goal. She congress you keep congress, but congress by talking about congress, really. Needs to go back. One point committees had much more power. You have twenty people. And those twenty people could get together, and they basically have the authority to decide how something worked or didn't work. Well, that's a manageable number now all the powers in the leadership and the leadership is completely preoccupied with making the other leader, look bad. So nothing happens. Yeah. Come this past February twentieth for the powers author of the book. Try commonsense conversation with Nora Walker who's the president of New York public radio. More of this conversation is available on our website at C hyphen, spin dot org. WCS from Washington coming up next on book, TV and pan radio..
Nobelist Says System of Science Offers Life Lessons
"This is Americans sixty seconds science. I'm Steve Mirsky the benefits from science as they show up in our daily lives are just enormous, but I want to transfer you that right now science can do something for us. Give us a kind of hope that goes beyond just those benefits Paul Romer. He showed the two thousand eighteen Nobil will Morial prize in economic sciences. Romer spoke April night that the National Academy of sciences in Washington DC at an event honoring tenuous Nobel and Calveley prize laureates. Now, there's nobody who's got benefits as direct and his immediate as Jim Jim Ellison who was also there and who shared the two thousand eighteen Nobel physiology or medicine for his work that led to new drugs against cancer when you can show there are people alive now because of the discovering you've made that just you know, that trumps everything most of us create benefits in an indirect way. And they come. All steps. So they're harder to perceive warmer than cited. William Nord house with whom he shared the two thousand eighteen economics prize Bill has this beautiful paper that measures a particular type of benefit which is asking how much light and luminaires can somebody get from an hour's worth of work. And roughly speaking from say, the beginning of the Neolithic revolution up to say, the time of the founding of the National Academy. That's about twelve thousand five hundred years ago to eighteen sixty three that went up by a factor of twenty people just bump into things they discover things so twenty times more light. But from the time of the founding of the kademi until now it's gone up by factor twenty thousand so one hour of work translates into twenty thousand more luminaires of light than it did. The time this this institution was founded, so those benefits are just huge. And we need the by the way, it's it's the system of science that made those very rapid ones possible. Not just curiosity not just random search. So they're huge benefits. But right now, I think there's more anxiety about how we're going to interact with each other as people than there is about just can we keep having more material of benefits, and here thing science is maybe even more important because it's very unusual community of people draws on people from all backgrounds from all over the world and unites kind of common purpose, and we get things done because we insist on things like truth and honesty, and we can trust each other because of that instead insistence, and we welcome people in to that community. If you're willing to live by those those norms, and we ask you to leave. We don't pay any attention to if you don't live by those norms. And the goal is really one of offering benefits that can be shared by everybody. So if you think about kind of like the hope for humanity scientists model of what we can accomplish. But who we can be and how we can be with each other for scientific Americans sixty seconds science. I'm Steve Mirsky.
"paul romer" Discussed on KQED Radio
"I'm Joshua Johnson. It's the Friday news roundup with political journalist Todd's willik reporters, Shane Harris of the Washington Post and lily Jamali of California report before we move on from the weather and the climate lily. There was one more thing you wanted to jump. Yeah. I just wanted to to mention Paul Romer. The other guy who won the Nobel prize in economics this week talking about carbon taxes being the solution to to this crisis. At least in part. I think it's important to recognize that sounds punitive. But I think there is a positive message that he's trying to put out there. And that is if you commit to a tax on carbon not only are you dealing with this issue head on. But you're also in his view. Opening up the opportunity for people to make money investors to to make money off of this. Because when money's at stake, you're always gonna find alternatives people will naturally gravitate, and the economic argument is often on carbon tax that it's bad for business. California's the fifth largest economy in the world and Jerry Brown just signed an executive order committing the state to carbon neutrality by twenty forty five which I'm sure sounds crazy to people outside of the state, but that's actually very close to one of the policy prescriptions. The I the IPC set forth, it's kind of crazy until you do it, really. And California's very serious about doing. It is very serious about doing it. You know, Paul Romer talks about the problem isn't going to be solved until you build consensus and political will is really at the heart of that. There's there's really a huge divide in terms of political will not just here. But also, you know, I just moved here from Canada. Same thing there. You have prime minister Justin Trudeau. China impose a carbon tax across the country, and he's running into real opposition at the provincial level there before we move on. Let me get to one more comment. A few more comments on this. Not my economy tweeted, why are we still talking about the credibility of science when it comes to climate change? Good point, not my economy. I don't know if you listen to this program, but we are not questioning the credibility. That's kind of a done deal on this program. But I hear what you're saying. Larry tweeted, it's frustrating to hear criticism of citizens in some of the poorest parts of Florida for not upgrading their homes ability to withstand hurricanes, they may live where other people vacation, but they're mostly stuck. This storm will expose that. Contrast, Shane Harris. I wonder if you could respond to Larry on one hand, I disagree with him as a Floridian like the state of Florida has programs to help you hard in your home. And if you want to live in Florida that is a basil risk of living within yards of a rising coastline. If you wanna live there. You just have to absorb that on the other hand. I totally hear what he's coming from Mexico beach where the hurricane Michael made landfall had to be moved back from the coastline for safety sake. The town could unincorporated it's it's it's a tough one nowadays, really tough. And when we're thinking about climate change in sort of thirty to forty year are Todd and I were just talking about this during the break. There are existential risks that are posed not just to communities close to the coastline the one. We're talking about today, but large cities like Miami in Florida and other places that really in the long term are going to have to make serious profound. Choices about survivability about resilience whether people want to continue living there, and there is an element of risk that you take that also has to give people some agency. And what I think is missing from the conversation about climate change is a real honest discussion about long term risk, and what the responsibility is for people living in these places and their elected leaders both at the logo. And the national level. We are not having that conversation and Joshua Jimmy one small point just to end if you think that that risk and getting your heads around the risk for lower income or poor people here in America is something we need to think about Americans also need to think about what some of our international leaders generals. Like, Colin Powell advisors had been saying for years, if you think it's a risk in this country. Imagine what storms increased drought and conflict means for millions and millions of poor people around the world when they start to migrate when they upset the relationships between countries, and that becomes not just their problem. Terms of life and death. But America's problem in terms of keeping the world in order. We'll listen for those of you who are in an had been in the path of hurricane Michael. We wish you, of course, a speedy recovery. And we'd love to hear from you as you continue to deal with the recovery. Give us a sense of how you're doing. How the recovery is going. What your thoughts are? And how things are going how well fee. Is meeting your needs. State officials how well that's going. We always love to hear from you feel free to Email us one a ads WAM dot org. You can always leave us a voicemail at eight five five two three six one one. A we know connectivity is probably bad where you are. So be careful moving around if you have to find a cell signal, please stay safe do not put your health at risk for the sake of sending us a voicemail. But if you're able we'd love to know how you're doing eight five five two three six one a one a let's move onto the White House where another major official is leaving the administration. Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations announced her resignation on Tuesday. A lot of people.
Two Americans awarded Nobel Prize in Economics for study of climate change and sustainable growth
"And NYU. Professor Paul Romer initially ignored the early morning calls from Sweden. Correspondent Scott Goldberg has more Nobel people called Paul Romer twice at some odd hour to tell him he'd won their prize in economics. I didn't answer either one because. Some call in New York University, professor has done groundbreaking research on technology and how governments can use it to fight climate change. I wasn't. I wasn't expecting. He shares the honor with fellow American William Nord house from Yale known as the father of climate change economics and Nord house was cited
Nobel Prize, Paul Romer and Florida discussed on Bloomberg Best
"In Florida the Nobel prize in economics has been awarded to one American who has studied the economics of climate change and to another whose research on. Ecological innovation raised hopes that human beings are creative enough to do something about it. The one million dollar prize went to Paul Romer of
"paul romer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tawny clinics? Our prosperity is generated by trade. Euro-zone economy is doing better now in terms of growth investments, right now, the markets in terms of hedging costs a pretty cheap gresture should try to take advantage and see through these called Bloomberg surveillance with John and Jonathan Farrow on Bloomberg radio. Good morning, everyone Jonesboro and Tom Keene. It is an Columbus Day in New York. Bond market's close we don't care. It is Nobel prize in economics, Paul Romer, Stanford and William Norton house of Yale University. Thank you so much of CitiGroup for perspective here earlier, we'll touch on that through the morning as well on economic growth, John and really go away from climate change and all that climate control, whatever I'm technology on just simply technology is what I would be get very excited about this morning, something we haven't mentioned I've lost arrow salaries that big win in the first round by the right wing candidate in Brazil. Yes. Bolsonaro just falling short of getting enough votes to actually not even go to the second round. But we go to the second round. And it looks be market positive for now. Energy in so Paulo made clear he's a populist, but he has the support of the elites with Brazilian real stronger over the last couple of the support of investors as elite order investors, come on the same thing. John. Thank you. And I there everyone listening to this program than not elites, Tom. The people. The people Bloomberg surveillance this morning brought to you by the people at cohnresnick tax reform in place. How will it impact your business? Get insight from the experts at cohnresnick. Let's get going. Visit cohnresnick dot com slash taxreform. Cohnresnick advisory assurance tax. Our next guest. John out of the combine of Adam Posen monarchy develop the Peterson institute for international economics senior fellow joins us. Now. A monica. Let's talk about something really interesting for me. At least that's happening at the moment. Which is the world's second largest economy is supporting growth, the world's first largest economy is continuing to raise interest rates. What breaks? That's a good question. I'm not sure what breaks the the the the overall context is is in the world is currently all very strange because in the middle of all this. We've got this trade war that we don't know. Exactly, what kind of implications. It's going to have for the global economy on top of that we have investors wary of emerging markets because of rising interest rates in the US and because of own abilities in certain parts of the world notably Argentina in Turkey. But other places too, including Brazil, which we you were just mentioning a few minutes ago in terms of the presentation election that took place yesterday. So there there's a lot of unknowns out there. A ton of unknowns out there. But do you view the slowdown in China is something separate from the trade story monitoring to what degree I do? I do view view it as something separate from the from the trade story. It's hard to say to what degree because we have a very hard time. Very very hard time as intricate into integrating the trade stories with the overall macroeconomic stories. I mean, basically, our macroeconomic models are very are very we can't quite integrate our mockery cannot make models with our trade model. So we have a lot of difficulty quantifying, the effects of one on the other certainly there's impact and one of the great things here, and it could be Brazil more commodity based or China is goods, but the service sector, I mean, all these dynamics were dealing with no Monica are amended or adjusted because so much of the world. Dow is a growing service sector economy. Exactly, exactly. And this is one aspect that. We. Have been struggling with trying to understand exactly how these different linkages between goods markets and services markets, and in particular, the services, the services economy to all of the all of the things that are currently taking place. What's the dynamic that you this? Of course goes with the heritage of Peterson of Nick Lardy. What is the dynamic of a service sector trade debate between China and the US in the US and China? Well, that's a that's an excellent question. I mean, looking at it from just what's been going on between China, and the US it seems like that's not being really taken into account. We have been seeing terrorists back and forth on goods. But obviously all of these things are going to affect services at the end of the day. And so the big question to me is how much do we unhinge the services economy and by unhinging the services economy? How do we how much do we unhinge the global macro economy monochrome think would be a missed opportunity Tampa on the program and not talk about Brazil, given that I understand you might run. I'm American studies at Johns Hopkins University, can you walk us through Monica. What is happening in Brazil? Just a very simplified version from where I'm sitting is that we have a market friendly candidate in Bolsonaro is that market-friendly candidate that can be consistent of the next several years because it's also understanding that he actually admits he doesn't have much of an understanding of Ican. Comics and default to someone else on some of these big issues. Well, here's where the strangeness of this election comes in. So both scenario has definitely caught the market's attention as the market friendly candidate. Because of the person he appointed or has seems to have appointed as his economic chief so to speak. So that person is a US Chicago trained economist an ultra liberal pro-market person. But Mr. Wilson sonata his actual track record as a deputy in the lower house where he's been for the past twenty six plus years is that he's been voting consistently with the Workers Party with the PT. He was actually one of the very vocal anti stablization plan. The plenary Al that was put in place in the nineties to stabilize inflation. He was vocally against that at the time, and he has espoused views which are much more. Nationalistic and state intervention in a lot of state interventionism, then then markets seem to realize at this point, which is kind of strange because all these views are already in public. So here's the here's the catch twenty two question. The the fact that he has appointed an ultra liberal pro pro market, economists as his economic teeth does that mean that he's actually going to delegate every single economic decision to this guy as president given that he himself miserable. Son out has quite the authoritarian streak. I think it's very hard to wrap our minds around. I would say some of the EM, Taurus, I hate to insult some of the people that probably have gone, you look in Brazil over the last week this sitting here thinking that this is the view of Bolsonaro, can I just put it on the spot monitoring and ask you the question as to whether you think they are wrong. I do I do. Really interesting, Tom. This is really interesting because the market is really got behind this candidate. Yes. As if he is gone to introduce and implement follow through on some very market-friendly proposals. What does their fiscal take finally her Monica double what does the fiscal stance of Brazil? Can they afford on a debt in a tax revenue side to affect Bolsonaro policy? So the fiscal situation is very dramatic the fiscal deficit the nominal deficit is pretty high at around eight to nine percent of GDP. There's a two and a half primary deficit in place unless the situations fix. This deficit is likely to rise over the medium-term that ADP at the moment going by the IMF methodology, which is different from the Brazilian central banks methodology, obviously that one is lower the figures lower with the IMF has Brazil at about eighty five percent of DP. Debt public debt and the end up in the prospect is that over the next two years that number could reach as high as percent, so it's a fiscal situation. That's completely unhinged and unsustainable and the measures that would have to be put in place would have to be put in place rather urgently miserable scenario has not outlined what his plan for fixing the fiscal problems. Are we'll will be nor has his economic advisor, by the way who for the past three weeks has completely disappeared from public view view because he has clashed with Mr. Boston on a couple of important issues. One of them is exactly a financial transactions tax. He wanted to bring back. Monica thinking source doctors with the Peterson institute out of the London School of economics with us with a good briefing there? Brazil say it doesn't matter. But when you look at the scope scale of Brazil, and I know it's distant into the self. It matters. You get instability down there. Yeah. Matters to learn it matters to say matters globally, particularly that interesting, China what America South America dynamic is. Well, Stuart Wallis of Bloomberg commodities has been great. But what are you looking at over there? I mean, besides Yankees at the the joy of some equity market bulls that the bond market is shut today. Because last week was pretty big some of the most we saw let's review them. Glad you bring that up two point eight nine percent two year with curve steepening. Tenure yield at the three point two three percent closing on Friday the thirty year bond, which is the thirty year mortgage bond. Three forty three forty m. Sorry, it's a large number and there's a big move. And I think it's the right to change the speed of the move that is called a lot of people of God, Tom, and in some ways reminiscent of what we saw maybe on a smaller scale and the equity market damage was seen as well. I've gotta run through some of the price action s where because after this Monday morning, we down five the and p five hundred down by eighty two on the Dow in the FX market some trouble in Italy. The confrontation with Europe continues. That means a softer euro euro dollar down four tenths of one percent. And they stronger US dollar a lot to talk about with the news habit weekend as we set you up for another important week for the treasury market. This is Bloomberg. Now, the news in New York City. Here's Michael Barr. John Jonathan thank you very much manager of a store in SCO hairy New York says the intersection where twenty people were killed over the weekend has long been dangerous. She says that heavy trucks continue to run a stop sign even after Weiner section was redone in two thousand eight police say a limo with eighteen people inside failed to stop at a t junction and struck an empty parked SUV and to Austria's NTSB investigators are on the scene again today. China's foreign minister is told visit a US secretary of state Mike Pompeo that the United States should stop what he called groundless attacks on his country's policies. Weighing Ye said he told bumpy during a meeting today that a shadow has been cast over the future of China US relations, global news twenty four hours a day on air and tick tock on Twitter powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries..
2 Americans win Nobel for working climate, tech into economic analysis
"The Nobel economics prize has been awarded to to academics with ties to MIT Yale. Professor William Nord house and NYU's Paul Romer work knowledge for their respective work at integrating climate change and tech innovations into macroeconomic analysis. Both of them did their graduate work at MIT secretary. General Gordon Hanson of the Royal
"paul romer" Discussed on KQED Radio
"I'm David green. And I'm Noel king. Good morning this morning. The winners of the Nobel prize in economics were announced the price will be split by two economists. William Nord house and Paul Romer Nick fountain from our planet money podcast is with me now. Good morning, Nick happy Eka Nobel day before we get to the winners. We should clarify something or I know we will get e mails from communists. It's not actually the Nobel prize in economics. Right. Yes. I'm going to try to pronounce this right now. It's the spare keys Riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel, and that's for a bunch of political reasons. But also because economics really wants to be known as a science and with this year's pick. They went straight towards science. It's interesting one of the economists. William Nord house is known for talking about the economy and climate together. Right. He's an economist at Yale. And he's been thinking about how the economy interacts with the environment and climate for decades. Now this morning I called up Justin wolford's. He's an economics professor at the university of Michigan. And he explained his work to me the so size is if you leak markets alone, you won't get good outcomes on the environmental side. And the reason is simple every time you fire up your factory, you're thinking about your profits. But at the same time, you'll stink it up by greenhouse gases. And so north houses work is about how we need incentives to push us in the right directions. Like things like cap and trade, for instance, really interesting choice, and how about his co-winner Paul Romer. What is he known for? Right. Quick aside here. Paul Romer works at NYU. He got a couple of calls this morning, but he did not answer them. Phone calls this morning, and I didn't answer either one because I thought it was some spam. Call so I wasn't. I wasn't expecting the prize. Anyways, his work is about growth, and why economies grow? And his question is will they grow forever and just in Welford explained to me that his research says it's ideas that make economies grow holding. So is that the infrastructure creating new ideas is the injured Rubert economic growth, we need to pay attention to patents the number of scientists that are out there incentives to do science, and as long as we can keep generating new ideas, we can generate economic so in both of these choices in Nordhausen Romer, the Nobel committee. This year is saying this work about making governments think about how to make have the right incentives for people to do things that we want them to do to prevent climate change to continue to grow. That stuff is really important nicotine's worth noting the economics Nobel is celebrating its fiftieth year this year, and yet only one woman has ever won the. Price. Right. A lot of people thought that we might have another woman this year. The only woman is Elinor Ostrom Ostrom. She won the Nobel in two thousand nine and fifty years is a long time for only one woman NPR's Nick fountain from our planet money team, Nick, thanks so much. Thanks to L. Support for planet. Money comes from his Cox insurance, offering the Hiscox cyber readiness report to.
2 Americans win Nobel for working climate, tech into economic analysis
"Today to Americans have been awarded the Nobel economics prize. William Nord house of. Jail Paul Romer of NYU or acknowledged for their respective work in integrating climate change and tech innovations into macro economic analysis secretary general Goran Hanson of the Royal Swedish Academy of sciences making the announcement today. This year's price is about innovation climate at economic growth, both will share and a one million