19 Burst results for "Paul Karen"
"paul karen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tom and Paul Karen. Thanks so much. I got open our early today, which for me is like I think Paul was going to sleep or something besides getting up. And I did so to read in globally on this pandemic, I really would use the word grim on air. We're not in the business of editorializing. But what a groom weekend Ireland lock down on Thursday and then all sorts of challenges in Europe. The mathematics of the northern part of the American Midwest and into the mountain states as well. We get an update from Joshua Sharfstein of Johns Hopkins. Well, it is extremely concerning because it's obviously not just cases we're seeing. We're seeing a lot of people in the hospital. I was just looking at the stories about field hospitals being built and With content and other states. Taxes have to be used in military hospitals, Utah sending patients all over the country because of all those air, really, concerning time. Anyone who thinks that that increases because of tapping and completely wrong because we're seeing sort of build surgeons and hospital care weaving it surges in patients that need to be mechanically ventilated. And when that happened, there's going to be an increase in deaths. Now the rate of that meaning of the people who got sick we can. We can take care of them better if you were going to die, But that means overall because there's so many cases more and more people are going to die. So it's really cold comfort that that You know, there's a little bit of a last chance of in any individual dying. There's just so many more individuals. So this is a really serious time. And I think the projections that we could go 1000 to 2000 Day or not unrealistic. Do you have an extrapolation to the number of deaths out there? That's the one thing I couldn't find this weekend except from pundits, punditry and On a medical basis. Looking at the literature can you extrapolated out the number of deaths in the United States? And that's something that I do. But there are people who do that kind of models and kind of models that some of the pundits are fighting and so you know, based on the anticipated spread, you know come Ingles B from the jump Falcon for Health Security, was quoted Over the weekend, saying something which I think it's true the cases they're going up and we're not really doing that much to bring them down, so we can expect them to go up for a while. And when that happens when people get sick, and that's what's driving the projections. That more and more people dying just when you look at, you know the race to the vaccine there a couple of things that moved over the weekend. First of all, we understand that AstraZeneca vaccine actually makes a nought immune response in the elderly. We also understand that J. J. Johnson and Johnson said the first batches of its shot could be available. As January. Is this much needed good news. Yeah, I think there is some good news out there. And I think the evidence vaccines can create immune response to Napoli is a good step. We don't know for sure that that means people protected. So we're waiting for the studies to find out that the study should be reporting soon, so You know, I think that's good. I still wish that we were learning a little bit more about what was going on with the trial. From regulators around the world, but Hopefully, they'll be able Tio find their voice as these child come to a conclusion. Just readjusting this Johns Hopkins University will be important conversations in the coming Days. You know, Paul, There's all these distractions. There's an election. Did you know that eight days out seven days, six days count down in the middle of it is like, okay, just Mr Biden sound, Mr Trump's sit down. There's tech earnings like you know the tech earnings hearing. I read Jim Super this morning a wonderful report from Citigroup on Apple, and you know it's the product mix thing. We're all stuck at home. Paul sweetie alone bought for home Apple products, actually, right, and it's time to upgrade my air buds there. Whatever whatever I need, I need the noise canceling. He's big on those, you know. I'm gonna get some tech earnings this week. Tom and you know, hopefully they'll be supportive of the market here. But you think about the Apple story. It's just such a rich story as it relates to their Howard, where they haven't You know this five g may or may not be a super cycle for the irony, but it but it's big and it's a two or three years driver those handset sales and then you've got A ll The other wearables, which I know you got your watch and your air pods and all that stuff. And then there's that whole services business, which is, you know, 20. Okay, so John Butler knows all about this folks. We live in a hermetically sealed skyscraper here, the only one allowed to have smoke and flames as John Butler. He's got us fire next to his desk doing smoke signals. Trying to figure out what Apple's going to dio. How did the sell side Paul figure out what the product mix is going to be? They have, like spies in China or something. The old Channel checks is you're exactly right. Thompson Channel checks on the manufacturing side. Their channel checks on the retail aside. On and that's kind of where they go to get a sense of. And of course, they've got all their big financial models in unit price is and how many units are sold and all those types of things, but it's become a You know they have so many products within the Apple story. It's not just the phone, although the phone is the big driver, but but they model all that out. And I think they get a pretty good sense of kind of where things were going. And you know that the new business for Apple has been The surface is business. You know, it's a new business. It's a high margin business, and it's something that the company continues to invest in. And a lot of folks think that that's going to be the long term. Play for this company going forward, so lots of moving pieces there. Fortunately for Apple, Andi shareholders, most of the pieces are moving in the right direction. You know, the middle child jetted out to l a this weekend to find yourself or whatever. So we watched La LA land. If I pay whatever I paid Apple for La LA land. What's the gross margin on that, like 92%, That's pretty high. It's It's pretty high, so they given you know, I should just write a check out to Tim Cook, right? Exactly right. And you do that. You know, I think we all do that more times. And then we carried it to think. But Yeah, so it's something for them. You know the Apple plus the Apple TV business. It's not that big a business for them. They arguably on the entertainment side. They need to figure out if they want to be anything more than a middleman. And to date they've chosen not to. They haven't bought it. 21st Century Fox. They haven't bought Time Warner when it was up for sale, So I think I know it seems like I'm very content to just kind of be taking the toll toll taker if you will, from the likes of you and I the nice over Paul Sweeney. I will get to quickly here in a moment. I've been dying to talk to Paul about that..
"paul karen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"S and stocks this morning opening higher the S and P 500 up half percent or 16 points at 34 36. DowJones industrial average of 4/10 Percent, or 110 points in 28,413 and the NASDAQ's up 7/10 percent or 81 points at 11,445. 10 Year treasury of 5 30 seconds. He'll 300.76% yield on the two year 20.14% 9. Next crude oil's up 2.6% of a dollar three at $40.98 a barrel go makes gold up 6/10 Percent, or $11.30 at 1902 10 Announce the euro 1.1743 against the dollar, the yen 105.926 Tom and Paul Karen, thank you so much. There are days where you go. Finally. And the patients that is required for equity investment. Maybe comes into play IBM justice one example. People waiting and Paul my right on that way too young and waiting and waiting for IBM to reorganize and go after Amazon and a ws cloud and, you know, I don't know as much about it is an Iraq is interact. Joining us, Paul I don't know. I think he's controls the next hour. Raising your next. See they wake up. They doesn't want to talk to me. Rather talk funny, miss part of them exactly. Actually, I'd like to talk to Bonnie quit Anyways. We're 1 31 on IBM up $7 a swell Listen. Saunders has seen all this. She's a Charles Schwab. She's a chief investment strategist. And she's been preaching constructively patients for years where there's like reorg in combinations and things get done. But you gotta wait to get it. You can't guess. Two mated. Over three weeks or four weeks. Listen and this news cacophony worrying right now. How dowe I maintain a Schwab like patients. It is tough because we're just bombarded with it every day. And you know, some of the headlines can be market moving, particularly on interday basis. We've certainly seen that with regard to Stimulus. I'm not suggesting that is noise. You just I just don't think you could trade around it. What I find interesting is that the cohort that has been most active and most dominant terms of driving Mo mentum and Driving sentiment, the women's day traders trafficking in the options market. I'm not sure they're doing it for the Liu's related items. I think they're just pressing the same momentum bets and we're seeing it again recently with the decline in the call ratio, but we're not seeing it across the spectrum. Of investors. You're not seeing it in attitudinal surveys like a I. I actually think there's also an age component that's at play here in terms of where the speculative froth is. And where the skepticism is there isn't expanding process is on the younger end of this. I'm shocked. I know, but so listen how much of this is retail? This Robin Hood is a function of maybe the pandemic and being locked in and there wasn't sports for a long time. Lot of people are suggesting that you know this stock market trading is This kind of an offshoot, a little bit of the pandemic and being locked in. Is that something you see yours or something more fundamental. No, I think that that's part of it. Let's hope that this is something more fundamental, long term because I think that there was this Perception, certainly throughout the entire last bull market cycle phone natural crisis that the market was never going to attract the attention of younger investors that they were going to sort of poo investing in Wall Street. So way, maybe seeing speculative frost here. But if this is the first step to get a younger generation interested investing for the long term I think that may be a silver lining that comes out of some of the risk associated with their speculative fervour. But I do think it is tied. You listen to interviews with some of these folks, and they do say it's a function of lack of sports, betting. It's the Gamification to some degree of trading. It is being home and not having To be a boss looking over your shoulder and time on your hands, So those factors have all come into play. So Liz and I are so we're less than four weeks away from the election. The news Is just going to be coming fast and furious between now and election Day. What do you suggesting to your Charles Schwab clients? How they play that or not play that? Well, don't play, and I never actually used the word play because I don't think investing in the game. I think investing should be a fun process over time, and never, ever about gambling on a moment in time, and I think tried trying to trace the election. Certainly, if you're if you're thinking and although nothing terms, you know, get out before the election and get back in after That's just not a winning strategy. I just heard about this. On Monday, we'll in history back to 1900 of presidential elections of combinations in Congress. Um and what it means for stock market performance, And there's really not much there. There where there is a relationship is more in the opposite direction of what people think. I think what goes on in the market. The economy impact elections more than the other way around. And I actually think the person in the White House in terms of the stock market may be slightly less important than the person sitting at the Federal Reserve. All right. So listen. Fiscal stimulus. It doesn't appear that we're going to get anything in the near term. How does that factor in to your catalyst? What do you suggesting to your clients? They think about when I think about fiscal stimulus. You know the analogy have been using is that we all sort of got in a car ride on our way to sort of Helen. We're happily back, but we're not all the way back and we're running out of gas, and I think the fiscal similar represents some of that gas. I think maybe the hope expressed him with the market's doing is that Maybe we get something in a piecemeal basis. But it's hard to envision a scenario where absent some additional fiscal relief, especially given what we're seeing with permanent job losses, relatively temporary job losses and long term unemployment. We don't struggle in the economy without some additional fiscal relief. Listen, What are you seeing in terms of people's mood? I mean, I've brought this up with your time and time again. You have a radar. It's Schwab of what people are actually doing. Not talking about. What are they doing? Well, it goes back to the company and made about maybe demographics being a factor in diverging sentiment conditions and I would say our investors, they're still there's definitely more concern expressed in questions than there is. Of opportunism on DH, and they can't be big macro concerns, not specific market concerns. Obviously the election Is a big topic of question. The number one question continues to be. Is there a disconnect between what's going on in the stock market? The economy and if so, worry debt and deficit questions are always popular. So in an environment in Washington, where Now there's bipartisan support for kicking the can down the road. I would say our investors still have that near the top of the list of longer term concerns. So listen, there's been a little bit of a push pull in the marketplace. It seems like between those folks that are saying, Hey, let's stick with these big tech names that have proven top line growth stories. That are going to work. No matter what's going on the world versus those that are saying, Hey, I'm willing to look past this pandemic to the other side where I think I'm going to get some economic improvement and therefore maybe it's time to rotate its more cyclical sectors. Where do you and Charles Schwab come out in that discussion? I would say we come out sort of in the middle. I think you need to be really mindful of paring back gains in those high momentum names. I don't see quite the extremes. Of where we were in 2000. Yes, the largest five stocks represented at the recent Pete 25% of the S and P versus only 18% in 2000, but the average E of the top five stocks today. Is and I put on Lian only 32..
Stocks sink at open, with the Dow off more than 300 points, after horrific GDP
"Bonds climbing after airport show the world's largest economy had its sharpest contraction on record in the second quarter, and separate data highlighted another increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits. We check the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg, the S and P 500 Down 1% or 33 points at 32 25 DowJones industrial average down 1.5% 386 points at 26,155 and the NASDAQ's down half percent, or 49 points. At 10,492. 10 year Treasury of 8 30 seconds. He'll 300.54%. They yield on the two year 20.12%. Nymex crude oil's down 2.4% or $1.40 dollars, 27 cents a barrel. Comex school, down about 1/10 of a percent on the dollar, 30 in 1975 30 announced The euro 1.1797 against the dollar. The yen 105.7 Qualcomm Among the stocks were watching today, up 10.5% gave a strong sales for cash for the current quarter and announced a new licensing deal with China's well way technology's Procter and Gamble, up 1.6% of posted a certain sales this spring is higher at home consumption of laundry detergent and dish soap. Was continued stockpiling gave the consumer staples giant a boost. And that's a Bloomberg business. Flash toman Paul Karen, Thanks so much negative
"paul karen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Oil's down for 10 percenter 17 cents at $40.39 a barrel, and Comex gold is up 9/10 percent, or $15.70 at 18 17. 80. Announce the euro 1.1344 against the dollar. The yen 107.23 Tom and Paul Karen, thanks so much will continue to work somewhere because clearly the opening ofthe is greater than what we saw. With the future's activity earlier, but I've been trying to do is speak to experts, not pundits, not people speaking with not a lot of authority and what you do when you want to talk vaccines, you talk to a physics major. We do that now. Matthew Harrison joins for Morgan Stanley. He's got parchment from yellow and physics, and that has prepared him for the physics of biotechnology. And vaccines is well, Matthew on a given weekend when you're not surrounded by institutional investors hanging on your every by holding cell, and someone waxes philosophical about vaccines. What's the number? One thing? The public gets wrong right now about this search for a silver bullet. I think the biggest thing that I hear concerns around mutations and the time that it takes to make a vaccine. I think there are two different things that are happening right now. One is that the key part of the virus that we're trying to go after the spike protein to create a vaccine has been relatively genetically stable. We have not seen any significant mutations there yet. That gives me a positive view on the potential to make a vaccine. And then the second thing is While the timeline here dramatically faster than what we've experienced in the past, the flipside is rarely have we done so many items in parallel as we're doing now. So, for example, just with manufacturing, you would never invest the amount of money. Make supply of vaccine available after phase one.
"paul karen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The dollar the yen one ten point five nine Tom and Paul Karen thanks so much greatly greatly appreciate it the market open here we got a nice pop above futures dial four hundred seventy point twenty thousand one hundred twenty six of six comes in a solid two points twenty two point six three this is joy this is the derivatives angle we've been taking the dynamics of the market that we've been seeing over the last number of days and now we advance the discussion Damien says over called up teams surveillance is that just shut up and speak to him we do reserve them guard read as active EM I believe that's emerging markets out of the Carnegie Mellon complex in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Dan sikap it's joins us right now with that vanguard there's a point the current email and where the mortals like they take quantum mechanics and they don't move on from there in others foolish enough stakes stochastic calculus too and then advance derivative models how does all that brainpower help you when you go down thousand Dow points well I think the the danger of too much brain power in the markets is that to be get investor you have to be basically exactly one step ahead of the market if you too many steps ahead you never make any money because you get stopped out before the trade works so you got to be careful this got to be careful is you have to re hedge along the way this is a huge idea that if you establish a belief you had yet and you you sort of get your wrists in order and then you have to redo it and redo it do you have a mood now that we're all getting too cute in our derivatives strategies with the great bull market and we we just got a little too smart for ourselves yeah I think there it is are there is a tool and I think a lot of times we tend to blame tools for problems but yeah it's the it's what you do with those tools as the problem the tools themselves allow me a precision Ristic king and rightly so you have to understand the risks of any instrument use whether it's a division of our bond or equity but you know we are users of derivatives because it allows us to isolate what we see are the most attractive risks in the market and not take risks that we don't find it attractive it was a clear penalty Lewis with the sixty just BC of London this morning and he was looking at flows and say look for ex number of years we really haven't seen the enthusiasm and equities even though prices drive higher he is humility in the derivatives space right now do you see people making dumb moves or is everybody still humble off of the ball to you have a few years ago so I'm I'm a bongo I suppose a little more bearish I'm a little biased there what I would say is that the markets are flush with cash and that's something that's not going to change in the near future even the virus is going to change the virus is not going to use the cash amounts so it it's it's inching dance so you know I'm looking at the M. S. CI emerging market index were down about five percent this year where if I wanted to allocate some money take a little bit of risk here say Hey the markets pulled back maybe a little bit of value I want maybe get a little bit more aggressive think about emerging markets what would you suggest I go so what we seen until we've seen up to this point is that you've had a number of problem areas pop up you know in in the bond market we've seen trouble in Lebanon Argentina Ecuador in a little bit tricky more recently but because the markets are flush with cash as investors eggs in those markets they're simply recycling and the risks to other opportunities in asset class so you have the winners get richer while the losers at this point have to re price our view this year going into this year was that it was not going to be a market about picking winners it was gonna be in the market where you can serve with losers and you know while we focus on fixed income yeah I would be surprised if that was any different from equity markets as well I think this is where you look at the economies where the imbalances have been built up over a long expansion and if you are underweight those key names you don't have to be as defensive in your overall portfolio and that saves you a lot of money there seem to be in Q. four and talking in the equity space finally international equities soared to do better is your sense that this virus in the supply shock that we've seen in all the GDP and economic data you shifted your EDM world permanently or is it a one off over time frame were you gonna see a solution to it and we'll get back on the EM recovery I mean I'd be careful about putting the entire emerging markets under one umbrella certainly a lot of the markets have benefited from the growth in China that's been the case to the rest of Asia some of the commodity exporters in Latin America have benefited and Eastern Europe and central Europe have benefited through the connection through the German up production costs of production engine but that said you still have a lot of economies in the end that are very close the condom is like Brazil Argentina you have a condom is that are more linked to the U. S. such as economies you know Mexico is a good example not of Central America and you have other economies that are have benefiting from secular changes in Eastern Europe has really been outperforming Germany as production shifts from Germany to hungry to answer be to Romania and that has been keeping them afloat so I don't think emerging markets necessarily that much more at risk from this particular threat to global growth then anything developed world part of this is the what we don't know what they're what doctor Larry don't call the unknown on loans I think a Sanford Grossman and Joe Stiglitz years ago talking about the mysteries that are out there what's the what's the misinformation or lack of information that you have now the concerned you what's the thing you don't know it's on the radar some might my concern okay my concerns are really much more about the markets and how they behave when you have real risks to growth but you still have this abundant liquidity the risk there is that you don't get a lot of warning when something goes wrong you know the market can be bullet proof up to a point but once you start cracking the armor of liquidity you could have much larger move to the downside so that for me is the biggest unknown it's not about the economy I think the economy is actually much more transparent a we think it is we just tend to look at everything through the prism of the market and the market distorts what we see because the market so flush with cash this is Paul this is a fundamental thing we heard this from UBS yeah really pound the table on the wall of money up one seventy now up ninety six is sort of the opposite yesterday we had some gloom yesterday in the tape got better in the nine thirty hour and today we flip we go optimism we've pulled back yeah certainly for those who are optimistic the overnight price action was not particular constructive because Asian made an attempt to rally U. S. treasury yields sold off equity futures went up and that rally simply didn't hold one when they came in what's your correlation right now full faith and credit bond yields to the equity markets are they in step they acting separate well I think the the the question is is strong you know bonds tend to you know rally in risk off at this point and they tend to sell off in response but the both benefit from this wall of cash the wall of cash actually keeps bond yields lower than that would have been otherwise and the wall of cash he's keeping equities higher than the whatever that was so Dan when Damon comes in and sits in that seat statement says our does emerging markets for Bloomberg intelligence to get me to buy like Lebanese sovereign debt and all this craziness I'm not ruling that go a little EM on you but talking about something closer to home Mexico Brazil have to think about Latin America here you know Brazil has been a great story in terms of reform but unfortunately that reform is not yet translated into growth so that's something that we are becoming increasingly concerned with even though we still remain constructive you know Mexico is a story where a lot of political risk has been priced in and some of the worst case scenario did not materialize but we still see risk down the road we see risks to the potential rating all of the state owned oil company that may not be able to stay in the best rate territory that will result in some selling so we like Mexico softens the credits as part of our offering quality view in the market right now but it's also price support you had at their currency risk when you go to some of these markets this year when we take a local market exposure of phones we have the option whether we want to take or not take the currency exposure we have felt in the last couple months the best value was actually in the rate markets are not in the currency markets so we have been hedging out most of our currency exposure when we do get involved in local bonds for denture coverage thanks so much for joining us we really appreciate your thoughts vanguard senior portfolio manager and head of active emerging markets they do have active money vanguard Tom to do a good designs of those huge huge success story Malvern Pennsylvania thank you so much up one seventy of the down there we come down to a ninety six orchard in there right now he does come in a little bit off of maybe the real estate which was on survey is all here's a headline you know you talk about it's been a quiet virus warning without that many headlines this is the headline off the Bloomberg Paul Italy hotel in lockdown after woman tests positive to virus yep I think I have no idea what that means no but I just think we're gonna see more and more of those and the question is are they could be confined to Italy organ starts singing in other countries and I think that's kind of where the you know the the market right now how quickly will this spread globally that's kind of question the day it seems like with the news in New York City as Michael Barr John Paul thank you very much president trump told a news conference in India today as he gets ready to wrap up his two day trip there the.
"paul karen" Discussed on The Emma Guns Show
"And he immediately pulled out. Chiro Dover Stop Moaning gonophone and he went and stood in the corner and carried on light fluffing himself to stay hot for the next shot and that was the turnabout moment is the second he went caught. The Guy News to pull out and that she would not want him in there anymore right because I'm busy if he says that means emails by altering emails and everything he's An and was on the phone as well in keeping himself and like. Oh they don't even sit next But they didn't even stay. They didn't even talk. They just stopped God and I think the every sort of over randy fourteen year old boy that starting to think that everyone wants their face. Come on threaten whatever should be given McCartan back experience. I see so it's giving people. The false reality of that could happen in a consensual natural experience when actually that is orchestrated orchestrated lately. It's literally choreographed. There's a script and there's nothing wrong with Bela giving someone a fancy but that's what we need that's is the missing link is. We need to be teaching people that this these people are what this is fun to say. This is choreograph. Enjoy your fantasies exploited fantasies. But don't unexpect- Paul Karen to take on the phone salmon penises just because someone whose job it is also did it. That's the missing this. We're not talking. Look into to kids about it and saying so. You're going to start seeing this ship. You're going to start saying this is not real this is not what real sex quote unquote looks like. It's real in terms of the body parts during the thing and if you do find upon you WanNa have sex like that was the flip side which conversation comes in. That's fine if you WANNA I wanNA take on the full salmon's you did you know you do it but don't because you think that you should yeah you know that's my whole point is it's a complicated thing it's never going to go away. They're literally cave paintings with boobs on them. Wasn't it.
"paul karen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Forty eight cents to sixty dollars seventy one cents a barrel call my school that'll change at eighteen at fourteen eighty three ninety announce the euro one point one zero eight six against the dollar the yen but nine point three seven lease on Paul Karen thank you so much we really appreciate that here we are December twentieth certainly it time to look back one year it's been equity markets up twenty seven twenty eight percent on the S. and P. it got investment grade bonds up close to fifteen percent the question now is as we look towards twenty twenty what kind of encore can the markets give us our good friend Margie Patel joins us she's Wells Fargo a senior portfolio manager he joins us on the phone market thanks so much for joining us again and we owe a great a great year for a lot of the financial markets out there how are you framing twenty twenty as you look ahead I think twenty twenty is going to be a continuation of the great trends we saw this year and in fact I think there's a chance we may see the economy because G. P. this morning two point one actually begin to accelerate so we could actually see the equity market do even better than say mid high single digits which I'm expecting and twenty twenty Margie how concerned are you that that is the solid consensus that people expect the economy to keep improving it not go too crazy to the point of igniting inflation and having a bond sell off but everything will just continue to do well all be it perhaps not as not as well as this year well I think a lot of people are nervous because after you've had basically a decade of the market dancing people are naturally nervous but to me the big changes the fed is fundamentally change how they operate we can count on them not slamming on the brakes when they have previously and as long as the fundamentals are solid which they are I think the market should expand the only knock on next year is I do think that the absolute returns will be more modest than yes here another word low single digit for equities mid single digit for fixed income only OR into potter fixed income rather than what turned out to be a truly spectacular year for the bond market was because Margie Patel Wells Fargo senior portfolio manager also awaiting some comments a press conference for the post launch news conference from NASA and we coming from the Kennedy Space Center will bring some of those comments to those in in moments but market let's think about twenty twenty you know it's a look back to twenty nineteen it seems like we had a couple of periods where people were rotating in from the growth to more maybe conservative defensive sectors and cycling back into growth as we think about twenty twenty how out there on the risk spectrum do you think we should be in terms of you know growth versus maybe more value I think we still have to stick with growth because gross will be slowing down and so those companies that can produce some kind of take double digit earnings growth will be more and more valuable so I'm not looking to find the undervalued areas certainly it's frustrating when every good company you look at that you don't know this probably up forty percent year to date so naturally people want to look more at the bottom of the barrel but I think it's better to stick with sock a gross at this point are you will be the worst performing asset class in twenty twenty I think commodities are going to continue to be disappointing on balance because where you don't have inflation where you don't have explosive growth from China that period stuff I think commodities will be rather disappointing emerging markets I think you know one area that people are suggesting is emerging markets has been a chronic under performer and maybe get some type of trade deal even if it's a phase one deal that might be the catalyst for merging markets broadly defined when you think well virtually all emerging markets are commodity based so I don't see that there's really any drivers they are to accelerate that in particular because a commodity based at that very dependent on China China's growth is clearly slowing down so I'm at because even lesson lukewarm on emerging markets say spent the last ten years doc doubling tripling their death internally they have to make fundamental changes in their economy now you have commodity price and demand flatter going down so that's not an attractive picture for me Margie this year at the sixty forty portfolio is amazing it crashed it on every level there was von really there was a stock rally sixty forty would absolutely have been at the right way to go why would not not be the case next year but it sounds like we're setting up for more of the same albeit less high well I would say when you just look at the bottom math is how much price appreciation can you have won a lot of bonds are running into their call price at the specially problems in high yield the absolute coupons are very low two three four percent in other words right on top of equity dividend and and I think that even if the stocks are only up no se eight ten twelve percent they'll still be better than any part of the bond market can produce just because of low coupon and the lack of price appreciation when you talk about high yield debt I know you've been cautious in the past about it I'm wondering do you think that given the call price and where we are does this seem like an area that's right for for correction or do you think that just cap cap attention upside I think the big criticism of high yield two things actually one is he just are going to be able to make double digit returns next year just because of the local pawn and so many bonds already trading after call prices total returns three four five six percent of the maximum that you could make their is secondly there's actually rather scarcity of good quality high yield bond prevented that's going to be the big challenge next year is what to buy this acceptable quality a lot of the lower cheered even some of the good names but socks off into the low market they finance and private equity and so the the demand is very very high and I think next year the supply of these names will be very limited so that'll be the challenge for investors mark tell leveraged loan market is it too much risk here the risk reward is not there how do you think about that market again levered loans have pulled off a lot of the bottom tier supply in the woods because of the high yield market they bought the lever glow market because I got much better terms even lower coupon rate and so if there's a risk of the fixed income market and I think that the very very modest I'm looking for not looking for a big explosion I think the lover loan market might be disappointing because of some of those lower tier names that turnout have too much leverage don't have a great business model thank you so much for being with us and happy holidays to you marquee Patel is Wells Fargo asset management senior portfolio manager joining us by phone interesting to see how the consensus really is solidifying heading into twenty twenty this that the response is going to do pretty well not as well as they did this year some concern about how much bonds can rally given how tight spreads are certainly on the credit side as well as the treasury side this sort of I don't know if the tension here is not seeing a big spike in yields while also seeing all of this positive stuff on the other side I'm just a that's rooms I'm so I'm trying to square that the exactly I think it's some of the expectation is the assumption is that the fed is on the sidelines it the assumption is kind of two percent GDP growth global GDP growth and their deception is that trade is going to be of relatively benign issue as we as we go through the year that's kind of pretty solid and so that kind of I guess the worry is what's gonna upset that yeah and and again I'm I'm looking right now at the yield curve the two ten gap and it's the steepest since November I'm just trying to understand you know it was there was a time when people thought the bond market was sending a signal to equities right and it is a signal now sort of disconnected and and bond yields are gonna remain really suppress but if if the feds holding the front and lower I just have to wonder could that be the big surprise what if we get pollution what if we get inflation we just have not seen that and the fed has not seen that and that's one of the reasons I think they're kind of sitting where they are but it'll be very team to see the fed we believe is on the silence and that's the key thing right now let's get the news we have our own Michael by Michael Lisa phone thank you very much bowing to starliner capsulas all scores in orbit after blasting off on its first test flight today's.
"paul karen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Point one zero seven eight against the dollar British found one point two nine nine six in the yen went away point six seven and that's a Bloomberg business slash common Paul Karen thank you so much really try to squeeze in your conversation with the always interesting murder Patel Margie Patel with wells capital management on a high yield on coupon in this year decidedly on total return we await the president of the Republic of France and the president of the United States in London we're monitoring that now across all of Bloomberg radio market Patel good morning is been a double digit year did you get your fair share yes we did amazingly even in the high yield market double digit returns or were given so it's a great you're all round stocks and bonds what happens after a great year in bonds I would guess our listeners in me eighty nine point seven percent of my focus is on the year after in equities what happens after a bang up your in bonds well I think the will basically look for just the return of the coupon income and not select capital appreciation so mid single digits kind of the best scenario for two thousand and twenty so market we saw you know with the sell off in the fourth quarter last year if you're not a lot of people have cash on the sidelines and willing to jump back in if you take a look at the performance in twenty nineteen if that's the case this year as you talk to your clients do they have cash and maybe they're just waiting for a pull back in the market that maybe we got like a lot a year ago yes cash and hoping for that big pull back I think this is a replay of last year a big dip the great topic jumping on because the fundamentals are still pretty good so if I were to jump in I guess the question is how much risk do I want to take away one of you know go into defensive sectors with its real estate reads consumer staples running take on a little more risk say in technology or some of the industrials well I think of Barbara approach I think the interest rate sensitive sectors like utilities like some of the reach are going to do well because we had little rate push up I think we'll see rates push down against next year in the equity market I think we have to still look for grossi sustainable growth sectors because he called me a lot slower next year is the dividend gross a yield equivalent it looks very bought like to meet Tom because returns are about where you'll get an investment grade bonds what do you model for dividend growth do you have a caller that you work with like if it's too high dividend growth your radar goes up and certainly if there's not enough diverting rolls you don't like it is Margie Patel collar to that statistic no I like to look at total return and you know the capital per a gross is a dog in the dividend you really detail so I don't like to put too much emphasis on this CSA level three so market appears at the you know the market's kind of discounting of one rate cut maybe in twenty twenty do you think that's enough to kinda support some of the riskier assets in the you know the credit side in the equity side I think the said having a steady state policy doing nothing or making a mild three cop because free to look a little on the high side compared to global rates and the slow growth but I think it's always a don't do too much the remarkable very attractive Bloomberg surveillance worldwide we bring your market Patel wells capital management we await comments by Mister McCall in Mr trump Paul sure Margie it you know it's interesting it's been such a great year for bonds for equities you know it's it's it's some of people it that we talked to were saying Jeez you can you really have to moderate your outlook for twenty twenty maybe even kind of a mid single digit return type environment cash is that's a horde Tom's case triple leverage cash what is your sense as to maybe expectations for twenty twenty well I think made due to return to teach us following after the what the return check out this year analysts inflation being low and interest rates being low so if it's a five percent year that will be bad it's will pause and the grossest all positive and he called me each year before the end of the year thank you so much for your support of Bloomberg surveillance in your wisdom and perspective on capturing a greater yield market Patel with wells capital management in Boston we're waiting for Mr McCall Mr trump we've got a camera for you looking like they're marching towards windshield us Richard frame this Paul this is Winfield house in it's really really famous it is off regent park ridge his muse off hi Susan the regent park I got it right north of Buckingham Palace away from Buckingham Palace it was basically feels and they tore down what was their ancient in it was the poor little rich your whole building the war is money a Frank will or so this is Barbara Hutton really ages ago Chris barber has change I rumor dying in nineteen seventy nine rather ancient and she was a huge deal in that social swing of the twenties and the thirties and all and she build a delegation Georgian yep manse with all the right approval said that it's got some architectural integrity but not as an ancient building then out of the green the ambassador Mister Johnson can worse gestures again play football exactly what's I mean it's a spectacular property so group excellent setting for this get together twelve acres here now the president with a busy schedule today he will move with self you did this morning rather I should say moving so who got a bit of a scrum occurring now is it looks like they wait the chamar impress wait to enter Winfield house to me stormy greeted by president trump and Paul a nasty Mr that was the word that was used this morning the amazing to see what kind of report these two gentleman can have today again at this NATO this set was supposed to be a celebration of the seventy years of the NATO but it's turning perhaps a little bit more political than some of the participants will care for we now have president trump beginning to speak if he is hosting a Mister McCall of France okay so I guess they okay they're not ready yet they're what they're doing for just kind of follow up now there's there's with the flags of America and the blue ball should Russo France as well both for intent of here now speaking is the president of the United States all conversation afterwards I wonder first of all before we begin I want to pay my respects to the great warriors.
Stephen Moore withdraws from Fed consideration
"Now, our main story this morning Stephen Moore yesterday, he withdrew his name for consideration for fed seat. That makes him the second person to officially withdraw after President Trump said that he would prefer to nominate them for a seat on the fed board to get the backstory Charlie Turner spoke with our reporter Paul Kiernan from Washington just a half hour after Paul was speaking with Mr. Moore himself on the phone, President Trump says conservative commentators Stephen Moore has withdrawn from consideration for position on the Federal Reserve Board. Mr. Trump tweeted, the news of Mr. Moore's withdrawal. But didn't say why Mr. Moore changed mind? Let's get details on this from Wall Street Journal reporter, Paul Karen who joins us via Skype from Washington, Paul first of all this came after Mr. Moore, abruptly changed his mind, didn't well, I dunno changed. His mind is the right way to put it. I spoke with Mr. Moore a little while ago half an hour ago, or so, and he actually told me that. He and Lawrence Kudlow, the White House. Economic adviser had basically decided to withdraw him from the fed candidacy last night.
"paul karen" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Dow Jones industrial average down a quarter percent as well down sixty six points to twenty five thousand nine hundred ninety three and the NASDAQ's down three tenths. Percent or twenty two points. Seventy five twenty seven ten year treasury is down seven thirty seconds. The yield two point six six percent. The yield on the two year two point four nine percent. Nymex crude oil is up two point one percent of a dollar sixteen fifty-six sixty six a barrel. Comex gold down a tenth of a percent on dollar forty two thirteen twenty-seven announced the euro at thirteen ninety the yen one ten point seven five, Tom and Paul Karen. Thank you so much electronics retailer best business. You would think so. But they reported very strong numbers this morning. People are still buying the electronics still like to go into the stores and browse around so best buy good quarter. They beat revenue they beat earnings this quarter. I think they gave a pretty good outlook for the next quarter to stock is up. Tom ten percent in the pre market. So let's dig into the details with Michael Michael is a senior research analyst at Wedbush securities. It joins us on the phone. So Michael what we're pretty good quarter. What are your takeaways from the quarter, actually think you guys are right? They probably eventually are going out of business. But right now, they're the last man standing and a half. Now, if you're on a sinking ship you want the best ship captain and crew that you can possibly get. And they've got it. How it gets it? So many people got this wrong, including me, how did best buy pull the rabbit out of the electron IX at. They've they've done a couple of things one one. The big thing is they've cut over a billion out of their cost structure. So, you know, big chunk of their their cost. Savings has come from. I'm sorry. Their profit growth has come from cost savings. The second thing is they've been super aggressive in buying back shares when who bears league got there. They had four hundred and seventy five million shares. They now have two hundred and seventy five million. So that drives a lot of earnings per share. He's been focusing their free cash flow on cherry purchasing. It smart. They then strategically they made a shift toward appliances. And they're picking up where you know, Sears is losing a tiny share. And they've added services which sounded really dumb to me when they did it. But if you think of best buy as the bastion of the internet incapable, and that's really who they are people who don't know how to the internet go to best buy it. They don't know how to look at TV's on online. They have to see them in person. These guys have value added service. They up sell TV's. They will come in measure, you know, in your house. They'll install the TV or the cook top. And those businesses have really been thriving for them. So Michael from fiscal twenty eleven through fiscal twenty seventeen sales on a pretty consistent downward trend. They seem to turn it around and fiscal eighteen is that just the internet. Got your term was. Capable incapable. They drive it the turnaround. It's that and it's appliances, you know, so appliances have been a big growth category for these guys. And you know, Sears shutting down a ton of stores has really helped and Sears having really bad brand. Now has really helped and where are you going to go? So these guys have done a great job with appliances. The biggest real the biggest switch for them, though, is is in home advisers and very knowledgeable sales staff on the floor, and they cross sell you stuff. They will actually talk to you. When you buy a TV about buying a programmable remote. And of course, you're up a lot. I you don't have to program the remote, they'll come to your house and do it and that drives high margin services, so they're really doing well with those categories, and that's good management. Let me get this out of the way by wholesale right now, how do you readjust after the six year run they've been on? I I haven't neutral after having a cell forever in the sixty. Five dollars price target. So they're right at my target. I would not initiate a position here. One out of businesses here. The thing the best ways allowing us sorry, Amazon's allowing them.
"paul karen" Discussed on WHAS 840 AM
"Over mike. Brett he's helped him got course around the launched yet. Rex Chapman is here to take your calls and comments one eight hundred sixty six four six three one eight hundred sixty six. Eight seventy five election Baker at BreX Chapman at UK sports network. We are getting set wanna hear from you about tonight about. Ron Franklin auto count data tip while show, for example. This is the Dan Franklin family of dealerships countdown to tip off on the UK sports network. Blue. Kentucky basketball is brought to you by. Nissan, Kentucky farm bureau insurance care source by Kroger. By Coca Cola by state farm. Kentucky basketball in Louisville is brought to you by your local Kentucky and Toyota dealers. For all Toyota offers, go to buyatoyota dot com. Toyota, go places by central Bank, sleep outfitters. And by Papa John. Catch the Wildcats in Louisville all season long on your home for Kentucky basketball sports network. Wildcat fans. When the cats win you win with Papa John's pizza get forty five percent off regular menu-priced pizzas. The day after a wildcat win using promo code cats. Forty-five at Papa John's dot com. That's right. The day after a wildcat win Papa John's to the Kentucky Wildcats team up to give us forty five percent off regular menu-priced pizzas. Just use the online promo code cats. Forty-five at Papa John's dot com. Valid participating locations. Better ingredients better pizza Papa John's. Hello. I'm Bill carpenter during the past forty five years, I've completed hundreds of investment real estate transactions in the area. Recently. I helped the family member close on a residential property. We chose Paul Karen mortgage to handle the financing a complicated purchaser Paul Karen Handel flawlessly. The next time you or your associates need mortgage financing. Contact Paul care mortgage view will be pleased with their professional and superior customer service. Paul Karen mortgage, powered by first savings Bank, member FDIC, equal housing lender. Paul Karen, mortgage dot com. My name is Catherine. I am the proud mother of Zachary a sweet mischievous two year.
"paul karen" Discussed on WHAS 840 AM
"Four Wisconsin over Nebraska, the final sixty to fifty one the badgers wanted second-half coming up on the UK sports network. Hello. I'm Bill carpenter during the past forty five years. I have completed hundreds of investment real estate transactions in the Louis voyeur recently. I helped the family member close on a residential property. We chose Paul Karen mortgage to handle the financing a complicated purchase of Paul Karen handled flawlessly. The next time you or your societas need mortgage financing. Contact Paul care mortgage, you will be pleased with their professional and superior customer service. Paul Karen mortgage, powered by first savings Bank, member FDIC, equal housing lender. Paul Karen, mortgage dot com. Since nineteen Twenty-three co-ceo charities his shoe children their potential instead of their obstacles. So they see the world is a place of possibility where great things can take flight when you support co-ceo charities you help elevate every aspect of a child's life together. Our kids an entire community can reach new heights. There's so much more. Join us by donating today at dot org forward slash donate. This is leave center with your hosts coach John Calipari and sleep outfitters founder Kim can off Kim for real success. A team needs local support the same can be said for business. Coach local merchants. Like sleep outfitters. Depends on local customers sincere UK grad, a Kentucky native and your company is headquartered. Here sleep outfitters is really Kentucky owned and operated and Kentucky crowd. Sleep foul fitters. Shop local local it's Toyota's all wheel drive season with ten all wheel or four wheel drive vehicles to choose from winter weather is no obstacle. Now through February board you can get a great deal on a new built in the USA Toyota truck, get one thousand dollars cash back on a rugged new two thousand nineteen Tacoma four fifteen hundred dollars back on the full size. Twenty nineteen tundra. Takes fluids. TR pro for all Toyota offers. Z or Toyota dealer or go to buyatoyota dot com. Toyota, let's go places NewsRadio eight forty W H shot twenty five percent..
"paul karen" Discussed on WHAS 840 AM
"Collective will on the other team. Absolutely. This team is good. All right last question. Last question before we let you go. Do you have enough layers? Are you good Christie? How long have you known me? How long have I been do never always feel like you've never have enough on? I don't know every time. I see you on the sideline I feel like it's not. And you don't look bothered by it either. And that activates me. Here's here's the key. If you're just handing their keep move. I think I got caught in and all the time I've done this maybe McCaw once or twice. But no, I got I've got a bag with all my my warm stuff and I'll change into it right before. I go down got the wool socks, and the key is my scarf. He thinks because he's a Packers fan that he inherits like, you know, like someone at Dick's scared of people from Wisconsin. Yes. Inherited. But when you buy you purchase. Owner not just a fan. He's an owner, Jerry. That's right. Well, we hate to cut you off. But where did you get the stock? It comes with. Oh, there you go. Yeah. Well, we hate to cut you off at my mom just brought by the the most enormous bowl of homemade caramel corn that you've ever seen. So no fence or that, we're we're gonna take. All right. Thank you so much. We appreciate it. We got more coming up including hearing from the headman Mark stoops that's on the other side. And the Don Franklin auto countdown to kickoff show on the UK sports network. The I'm Paul Karen with Paul care mortgage. So you wanna get a loan on the internet? Well, what happens if the closing gets canceled who are you gonna.
"paul karen" Discussed on AM 1350 WEZS
"See them my myself one good morning welcome to the paul karen gun club spring it finally arrived whatever show up it's here we wants to get outside and let's get some work done if you're beginning to see that you're getting broadleaf weeds like dandelions all of a sudden your lawn is beginning to turn yellow you want to get too early if you can get the weed killer on your broadleaf weeds like dandelions at this time of the year right now is going to be more effective if you wait until they're all in bloom they only stay yellow for three days and after three days they'll produce seed and you'll see this beautiful silvery colored mound of seedpods where the yellow flowers were once that happens though seats are gonna blow with the wind and they'll be all over your lawn so try and get a broad leaf weed killer on it now now bone i'd has a two ways they have we'd beat our ultra that's a liquid it comes with a builtin sprayer and you just walk across your lawn you wet the grass it will not hurt your your grasses they will only kill broadleaf weeds and within two days you're going to see that the stem where the flower is is gonna be all twisted and it's to be all misshapen that's telling you to weed killer is in it in any of the seeds that are produced will be sterling they also have a weed and feed product they will feed the grass and kill the weed at the same time and if you haven't fed jalaun rather than just put down the straight food by the bone i'd weed and feed and your local history has a discount program like a coupon date.
"paul karen" Discussed on WGIR-AM
"Good morning and welcome to the paul karen club eight five five six six zero forty to sixty one call if we can help you out with your garden problems and we've been talking the last couple of months about our trip to the christmas markets in europe and it's beginning to fill up and also by the beginning of the middle of june the two hundred dollar per person coupon will expire so it's something did you thinking about doing going to need to make your reservation sooner rather than later we have a limited space on this trip will be traveling through france we'll be traveling through a stray all year and through germany and the architecture of the homes the mountains and of course the christmas markets are absolutely beautiful and if you'd like to get some information on this trip that we've plan right down this phone number we're traveling.
"paul karen" Discussed on AM 1350 WEZS
"Good morning and welcome to the paul karen club eight five five six six zero forty to sixty one call if we can help you out with your garden problems and we've been talking to laugh couple of months about our trip to the christmas markets in europe and it's beginning to to fill up and also by the beginning of the middle of june the two hundred dollar per person coupon will expire so fix something did to thinking about doing you're going to need to make your reservation sooner rather than later we have a limited space on this trip will be traveling through france we'll be traveling through a stray elia and through germany and the architecture of the homes the mountains and of course the christmas markets are absolutely beautiful and if you'd like to get some information on this trip that we've playing right down this phone number we're traveling through large.
"paul karen" Discussed on AM 970 The Answer
"Exclusively on am 970 the answer conservative talk and finds mike gallagher days ten to one on am 970 the answer welcome back america the republicans have been arguing very ears that they should have the senate and house majority and the presidency so that they could repeal and replace obamacare a comes down to next week there are six or seven republicans threatening not to even allowed debate open i way rob portman model either baked open i know rob portman pretty well i consider my friend i think he will be fine i'm not sure about that sudan susan calder said now and if in fact she refused open debate i will remind everyone in my main audience that i have a few stations and main every day i don't think you want to governor like that a governor who lays down she wants to be governor entries bennett pretty good senator please a knife lady everybody likes remain about winning that way or are trying to maintain your popularity as american care collapses across the united states it becomes collins care it becomes rand paul carroll mackerras over rand paul karen collins care about to replace it if those to find one more to join them in blocking the opening of debate so everybody else and they're all pledged to repeal and repair replaced dean heller did it a thousand time he tells the vote for both times he really is an again they'll be people like me every single day reminding you between now and november dean heller a betrayed the republic ends don't know why you would vote from bettered ever democrat that you know where they stand but could lose control the sanity the only republican they're going to lose next year in the senate jeff flake is going to vote to open he's going to vote on repair one way or the other two big boats next week i'll be talking about them both by the way on my show tomorrow on msnbc at eight a m congressman ron dissenters chairman of the house oversight committee subcommittee on national security will be joining me to discuss among other than director james comey's memos and everything else with regards to the russia affair ronda santa's will be my first guest on them be joined by a ovik roy in page cunningham ovik right probably the preeminent policy analysts in the united states on the new senate bill and page cunningham.
"paul karen" Discussed on KHNR 690AM
"And absences listens to me to use the number of homes animas seven five four one five his daughter who uh who is lives people ninety he was not back america the republicans have been arguing very ears that they should have the senate and house majority and the presidency so that they could repeal and replace obamacare a comes down to next week there are six or seven republicans threatening to even allow debate to open a capili rob portman bottle our debate open i know rob portman pretty well consider my friend i think he will be fine i'm not sure about that susan collins a said now and if in fact she refused open debate i will remind everyone in my main audience that i have a few stations in maine every day i don't think he won a governor like that a governor who lays down she wants to be governor uh and she's been a pretty good senator plays a nice lady everybody likes remain about winning that way or are trying to maintain your popularity as american health care collapses across the united states it becomes collins care it becomes rand paul karaban occar's over rand paul karen collins care about to replace it if those to find one more to join them in blocking the opening of debate to everybody else and they're all pledged to repeal and repair a poor placed dean heller did it a thousand times he told to be done vote for both times he really is and again they'll be people like me every single day reminding you between now and november dean heller a betrayed the republicans don't know why he would vote from bettered ever democrats that you know where they stand they could lose control the senators republican it going to lose next year in the senate jeff flake is going to vote to open he's going to vote on repair one way or the other two big boats next week i'll be talking about them both by the way on my show tomorrow on msnbc at eight am congress eastman wrong dissent as chairman of the house oversight committee subcommittee on national security will be joining me to discuss among other than director james comey's memos and everything else with regards to the russia affair uh rhonda santa's will be my first guest on them be joined by ovik roy in page cunningham over quoi probably.
"paul karen" Discussed on WGIR-AM
"Six six zero four to six at now your host alter great at least is to us he good morning and welcome to the paul karen garden club us this morning we are being joined by cancun garage ski from the failure lawn in garden company and he's gone to tell you about the japanese beatles there and all these though the beatles the getting ready to invade our gardens their property and there's we talked about earlier in the program they eat their weight in foliage every single day and then you've got through ones underground and the ones that are meeting in laying eggs so is quite a process in cannes is the person that can help us out good morning cam warning all your radio club look through this morning it's great to have you around and enjoy the information that you give us because of the formation due to tell us it's solve our problems that this time of the year of here in may we haven't seen of beadle yet but i'm sure it's going to be the day what what back this year can i wish i could send you a garbage kind of the one that i have here we have japanese beatles everywhere are now in north carolina in that way for at least a couple of weeks the interesting thing when you through the first one and you don't want any more right and i have to admit with your introduction police found salamina that that he threw away their moody there for a long time they're it all very during there's no question about it the the one thing that the people need to understand irs with regard to grub under lawn is the japanese beadle is one of the grub who because your lawn but through probably eight other species them up on grub who could also be lawn the new might not be adult when i was a kid and maybe you're to paul when you were a kid data late at night as long as you are mothers would stay there's always a porch loyd onerous always people being against that torchlight of most of the species in number most of the species of of people that that have grubbed group stages are kind.