18 Burst results for "Paul John Tucker"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tucker, that is your Bloomberg Business Flash, Matt and Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much, we appreciate that. Miller, Matt Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, broadcasting live as well on YouTube, so check out youtube and search Bloomberg Radio. Matt, I think me and you are the only ones that are not in Vegas for this F1 race. Yeah, I do feel like a lot of people are down there. Out there. It is, or out there, out and down really, isn't it? Is that an Ohio thing? I say it all the time, even if it's like in New Albany. But in any case, for me, I'm just not a Formula One fan, because I was a huge fan when they had V12s and V10s. I loved watching Shumi race, you know, and David Coulthard and a lot of the late greats. But this new drivetrain technology and the that feeling they just can't pass. The cars are too big, the safety restrictions are too serious and there's no passing. So if you get up front, you know, you're going to win. I don't like it. I prefer MotoGP. Wow. Hey, Mark Douglas, presidency of Mountain. You guys like you want to tell us about what you guys are doing there. Yeah, we starting at the race here, the Las Vegas Grand Prix, we're sponsoring the Alpine car. So we announced that early this morning and like it's performance meets performance. Performance TV on our side and obviously performance racing for Alpine and Formula One. So it's exciting. I'm here in Vegas right now. It's pretty exciting stuff. See, everybody's there. Yeah, no, it's like the biggest deal in the country right now and it has been huge ever since the Netflix series Drive to Survive, right? And obviously there's some very big personalities still in Formula One, not just the drivers like Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen, but also the team leaders, Christian Horner, for example, Toto Wolf. Mark, what do you think about the popularity of Formula One? Is it continuing to rise? I mean, you must have faith in considering you signed the partnership deal. Yeah, I mean, I think you nailed it in just kind of describing how big an impact the Netflix series had on the sport. Obviously, I mean, the Vegas is essentially now America's Monaco. That's what it feels like. I was literally out on the Las Vegas strip this morning. And until 6 p .m. tonight, like. I mean, it's an open racetrack. I mean, it's probably the smoothest road in America. and they have all of, you know, everything's up. I mean, you are literally driving down a racetrack to to get to a meeting. And so it's pretty exciting to have that here in America in particular, to have it in a city like Las Vegas. The suites here are just like everything is elevated. It's kind amazing. It's Vegas, baby. Mountain, you guys work with advertisers, you guys work with about, you know, linear and cable networks and streaming businesses for that advertising component there. there. And they work with Ryan Reynolds. And they work with Ryan Reynolds. Yeah. Pretty good actress. Creative officer. Is Is that right? I think so. Chief Creative Officer. And there's a cool helmet that Alpine the team now has. I think it has some relation to Deadpool. so it's a pretty cool item that's fair in Vegas right now. Dude, can you get a hold of one of those helmets? I've seen it, but I asked if I could drive a And like. I don't think a lot of people know this, but I'm actually this is kind of kind of interesting. I'm an like to be a Netflix Jet pilot. And so I know how to go fast, but they don't want to let me do that on the streets of Las Las Vegas, so it doesn't look like it's going to happen. Oh, man, you should be able to get a helmet, though, just like as a keepsake. Maybe Maybe have them make one extra one for you. Yeah, we'll work that out. I mean, you'd be surprised how much of this stuff is a surprise to me. Like it's not planned out months in advance. I just find out like this week. Oh, my God. Cool helmet. And I have to put my name in the hat. Will you do I mean, as as a partner, are you going to be able to watch the race like from pit lane? Will you be in the garage? Yeah, absolutely. So last night was the opening ceremony. Yeah, it was on pit lane. We were literally directly above the garage. Tomorrow, I'm going into the talking garage to some of the drivers. And, you know, what was most interesting about is this when we became part of the team, they interviewed us to figure out if we will winner like they they don't just want either like sponsorships, they want like a winning culture around the team. And it interesting was to see how much they take seriously like a culture of performance and the culture winning and and and like I didn't expect that it's kind of almost an added bonus to have a group of people that are just determined to to to perform like so that I'd love that. When is the main race actually? It is. It is Saturday in the US, which Sunday in Europe. So normally Formula One races are on a Sunday and it will still be on Sunday in Europe, but it starts at 10 PM and night on Saturday and the practice tonight I think starts at 830 and the qualifying I think tomorrow night is one in the morning. Like this is like it's not only in Vegas. It's like Vegas lights and it's it's it's and I can see part of the track from my hotel room and I mean it looks like a racetrack, you're but like looking out their hotel room. So this is obviously geared for the kind of the global TV market, the European TV market as opposed to the US TV market at this point. Yeah, yeah, I think the two of you have the worst time I think the the qualifying starts at like 4 in the morning. Exactly. Yeah. So like, okay, we'll take care of people in Vegas. They're still awake and people in Europe. They're awake. But those New Yorkers, I don't know. Forget about it. All right, let's go to your day job here at Mountain. What are you seeing in a digital ad space these days? Yeah, I mean, there seems to be a healthy everyone slow to make decisions, I think in every part of business these days. It could be capital expansions could be advertising, advertising, whatever it is, but you're seeing like the companies decide to grow. And so, yeah, we saw a Q4 kind of start out like just reluctantly the trains just kind of slowly leaving the station. But I think as the quarter is moving on, you see marketing budgets ramping up. And I think that's true both probably for linear TV, as well as like kind of performance TV that Mountain does on streaming. So, I mean, we were just talking to Laura Martin, a media analyst that need
Bloomberg Surveillance
Fresh update on "paul john tucker" discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"And treasuries right now rising in price traders are waiting economic readings for clues about whether the feds going to be able to cut interest rates next year and engineer a soft landing as Paul was just mentioned we get the job opening labor turnover survey that comes out at 10 o 'clock I'll bring you those numbers as soon as they come out all Wall Street's moves today a little milder relative to trading yesterday he had concerns about the being too fast in anticipating policy easing right now the S &P 500 down 15 points that's a decline of three -tenths of a percent 45 55 on the index the Dow Jones industrial average down 153 points that is a decline of four -tenths of a percent the NASDAQ 100 right now down 31 points that is a decline of two -tenths of a percent in the yield space as we see the treasuries are higher in price 10 -year is down four basis points right now that's at 420 the two -year and call that relatively unchanged in the yield at 462 and among the stocks on the move take to interactive those shares right now down six -tenths of a percent the company's games unit leasing the first trailer for the highly anticipated next version of grand theft auto analysts was a little disappointed by the lack of an exact release date and we check the markets for you all day long right here on bluebird radio i'm john tucker that is your bluebird business flash paul john tucker doing doing it all co -hosting business flashes uh... are you agree that the follow fan there you game of their uh... now the uh... one of the kids is and uh... i'd blame that for bob well of various and in the lack of parenting on my part exactly click some oversights yeah i've never uh... never seen uh... never played grand theft auto no not just that that's a great way to teach your still a car exactly right uh... yeah matt miller is the gamer here in bluebird radio art more more news coming uh... from the southern border uh... interest or in the bloomer terminal today gop push the block use of parole to release migrants lawmakers say they aren't eyeing ukraine and venezuela programs homeland officials lack capacity to detain all border crossings crosses there's a lot of issues down there on
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm John Tucker. That's your Bloomberg Business Flash. Matt and Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate that. Matt Miller, Paul Sweeney, live here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio streaming live on YouTube as well. So go check it out there Bloomberg Radio. You can search there on YouTube .com. I think the only thing between our next guest on the golf course is me and you in this interview. Barry Ridholtz joins us. He's a host of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. He's also the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer at Ridholtz Wealth Management. Barry, Federal your Reserve stayed put yesterday but still talking tough, aren't they? Yeah, welcome. Thank you. Thank you. are. We can disagree with them and we can argue with them but you can't say they haven't worn the street of their views and they haven't told people this is exactly what we're going to So, they still have two cuts priced in next year and I've been asking everybody today about, you know, where the Fed ultimately wants to be because they have a forecast for 3 9 % at the end of 2025 and 2 .9 % at the end of 2026. It feels to me like even though higher longer for is the current mantra, they want to be long -term low. Is that Is that the right way to be? They want to be long -term. They've said they want to be long -term high. No, no, they're forecasting 2 .9 % at the end of 2026. Like why? If they achieve a soft landing and the economy is okay, why would you want rates to be 2 .9 %? Isn't it healthy to have a solid I'm five? sorry, did you say 2026? Yes, yes. All right, so let's laugh about that for a moment and let me point out that the quarterly dot plot has been so wildly wrong for all of the past five years just looking out four quarters, just looking out a year ahead to think that anybody on this Federal Reserve or anywhere else has the slightest idea what the state of the economy is going to be, what inflation is going to be like, what interest rates are going to be like in 2026. It's not merely laughable. I would call it malpractice because you have to know GDP, whether or not we're in recession, what's going on with employment, what's going on with inflation, these guys can't forecast a quarter ahead, three years. It's hilarious. We've got three hours of radio here. My question is really just, is the bias now right to try and get back down to zerp? Is that where we want to be? Over the last 50 years, we've averaged like 4 .6 % on the Fed funds rate. Isn't that healthy? Or I guess it depends on where our start is, but isn't it healthy to have the rate real of return like around 5 %? Let's start with zerp, which is a great place to begin. Zero interest rate policy actually traces back to 9 -11, but really, it's a post -financial crisis, emergency footing. So if the Fed is at zero, your assumption should be, hey, something is either systematically wrong, systemically wrong with the financial system or we're in the midst of a really, really bad crisis or recession. So zero should be off the table. What we want to do is get to neutral, which is the English way of saying our English way of saying we're not encouraging inflation, we're not discouraging inflation. We're at a balance. The problem is the economy runs hot and cold. I don't mean recession -wise or bubble -wise, but some quarters are better than others and you kind of have to allow a little bit of inflation. You don't want to cause a recession. When we look at CPI now, a lot of this all comes back to the 2 % inflation target, which as former Fed vice chairman Ferguson showed, is really a hit made up number that goes back decades and doesn't correlate with anything. So the focus on 2 2 %, I think is misguided. What we want to see is stable prices and % and as close to full employment as we can get, I think the Fed sometimes gets so wrapped up in their hurdles, they forget first principles, prices stable, full employment. From there, what the Fed actual funds rate is, whether it's 4, 4 .5, 5 is almost irrelevant. Hey Barry, I know how you hate throw away terms that people use all the time, like it's different this time and there's cash on the lines, things like that. But how about the one discussion I hear a lot of is soft landing, hard landing, no landing. I don't know. True. What the heck does that mean? I don't know. How do you think about just where the is economy heading and how to describe it? I love that question. Listen, the things first first, do you have a job? If you have a job, okay. So things are pretty okay. Are you getting paid enough? Are you seeing regular raises? Are you keeping up with the cost of living? That's where we all start. When we take it to the next level, we want to know what are consumers spending, how much is the broad economy growing, are and we investing in our future? So it's a little more complicated than just, you know, are we in a recession or are we in an expansion? One of the things that I've liked that this administration has done that we haven't seen in a couple of administrations, is a little bit of industrial policy and a lot of infrastructure spending.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Has been function for JPMorgan. There's a lot of people there. A lot of people I know, a lot of people have some good tenure there, so interesting just to think about JPMorgan in the light of the James foreman news. This is Bloomberg. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg dot com and the Bloomberg business app. This is Bloomberg radio. This is Bloomberg markets. With Paul Sweeney. I'm looking at just brutal losses in the fixed income markets. The big question is how much these companies should be investing in this? How concerned are you that this labor market may start to show some cracks? The most interesting corporate finance stories. Breaking market news and inside from Bloomberg experts. Banks have to either or shrink their balance sheet. Pricing power remains strong. The best way to predict what the fed is going to do is think about what they should have done a year ago. Jay Powell's never going to say never. News breaking down all the market action out there. This is Bloomberg markets. With Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg radio. All right, coming up right in just a couple moments, we're going to go to Jay Powell, he's having a fireside press conference with Ben Bernanke, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve. First, let's go to John Tucker, get a Bloomberg business flash. All right, Paul and shanali major averages they've turned mixed a little change that NASA 100 lower, but still on track for a fourth positive week in a row being dragged down in part by consumer discretionary and information technology, Lululemon, part of those groups that stand two and a half percent and Applied Materials also contributing to the decline down 2.7%. Right now, the S&P 500 up 11, the NASDAQ 100 down 7 Chanel and Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. Right
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Business flash, Matt and Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate it. All right, our last guess, Kyle. Line ball was a little bit. Lyle heimbach. Thank you. I hope Lyle's not listening right now. I know, sorry about that, Lyle. A little bit conservative, outlining some downside risk. I think our next guest might be a little bit on the positive side. David Katz president and chief investment officer, matrix, asset advisers, David busy, busy week here, lots of earnings, lots of economic data. Kind of, how are you guys positioned over there at matrix? So you're leading with exactly right. After a miserable 2022 for stocks, we think stocks are poised to have a very nice bounce back year. We think they bounce back higher than their historic average returns. And we would be buying on dips. We think that the market ends the year nicely higher. So you get a day like today where certain stocks are off to 3%. If you like them, you want to pick them up on the declines rather than chasing them after the rallies. So what's the big driver of this? You think the fed is just done? Well, we think that inflation has definitely broken lower. So inflation is going to be less and less of a problem as the year progresses and that's going to take more and more pressure off the fed to keep raising rates. We think whether it's going to be one, two or three times that they will eventually pause and the rate increases this year will be significantly less than last year. And as a result, we think people are going to then focus on the economy. And we think the economy will either be in a mild recession or quite possibly a soft landing. And if that's the case, we think stocks are pretty reasonably priced and you can get some very good businesses that attractive prices. So what's your economic call underpinning all of that? David, I mean, are we looking at material recession or maybe something less? Definitely not a material recession. We think you could have a modest recession and it's important to remember if you look at history, stocks go down 6 to 9 months before a recession and they bottom out when the recession is generally called or in the early stages of the mid stages of a recession. So we think that a recession in the forecast is conducive to a upbeat outlook for stocks. But we definitely don't believe that it's going to be a deep recession. Businesses are in very good shape inventories are low consumers have very strong balance sheets not a lot of debt. There is not excess inventory in any areas. So we think that it's going to be a modest recession and that investors are going to start to look beyond that sooner rather than later. So this has got to be priced in already, in fact, right? I mean, we've already seen a pretty nice rally. And that's why stocks have sold off as much as they are. And they're just starting to look beyond it. But you're going to still have pretty negative news when stocks are going up. And that's generally the norm. David, one of the questions I've had for professionals, money managers like yourself is kind of, can we still look to the technology space as a leader in this market? I mean, when we do get a more concerted move higher in the market, we are in the midst of one since the lows of October is can that still be the leader? We do think that technology after a horrible year last year is going to have a very significant bounce back. So we think if we're right that the market is going to do better and it is going to be led by technology. There are a lot of very good technology businesses that have moved down to like 15 times earnings. So they have a very favorable outlook in your finally buying them at reasonable prices. So we're looking favorably upon tech. We think that if you look at what did poorly last year, we're expecting a lot of those areas to do a lot better. Technology financials and we look at some of the things that did very well last year like consumer Staples were expecting them to slow down. That's not going to be a place that leads the market this year. So we're looking for a lot of changes in leadership. What do you think about fixed income, by the way, David? I mean, we were just talking with Ted Oakley. He had a ton of cash and it is holding this last year and he said, look, rates made it possible for us to make some money doing nothing. So for the first time in a very long time, we're very upbeat about short term bonds. You're able to buy a three month to three year ladder portfolio of treasuries and get about a four and a half percent yield. We think that's great. So we still are wary about long-term bonds with short term bonds are great. We think a balanced portfolio, which had its worst performance since the mid 70s last year. The 60 40 mix is going to have its wind at its back this year with bonds doing better and we also think stocks contribute as well. One of the names I see on your list is a name we haven't talked about in a long time in general in this program, which is General Dynamics. I mean, this is a classic defense company. What's your call there on GD? So GD has a very favorable near and intermediate term outlook. There is going to be a significant increase in defense spending, a lot of the equipment that's being used right now is being used out of inventory rather than new orders. So we're expecting new orders in defense globally to pick up over the next 12 to 18 months. They just reported earnings and gave a pretty disappointing outlook based upon logistics. So 2023 is not as good as expected. However, we think that re accelerates into earnings growth next year and the stock incorporates a lot of the current bad news, but we think they have a favorable long-term outlook and intermediate term outlook. Unfortunately, the world is getting more and more dangerous and folks like General Dynamics are relatively Harris are going to be beneficiaries of stuff like that. So that makes sense as much of a bummer as it is. What do you think in terms of the Chinese reopening? Is there anything you buy on that? Well, we think that's going to be something that lifts all boats in a rising tide. We think the China reopening is going to help the global economy. We think it's going to help companies that had logistics problems. Inventories are much, much better maintained. So we think that's going to be good for the overall economy. Semiconductors, which have gotten beaten up on a slowdown in demand probably are going to be a bigger beneficiary of stuff like that. But we wouldn't try to handicap and play a particular stock or sector on it. How about the financial space? I know Goldman Sachs is a name on your list. We've got the and PayPal and PayPal. Does it count in the financials? I think it's a FinTech company. So talk to us about how you kind of think about the financials there with your golden pick and your PayPal pick. Sure. So financials did poorly last year in terms of the stock prices, even though the businesses did very well. We think that continues this
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate that. Well, this Federal Reserve has been clear this year about raising interest rates to fight inflation, rising interest rate environment has had an impact on a broad variety of industries, not the least of which is the housing industry. The housing manufacturing business really filling the brunt of that so we want to get some color as to how that business is dealing with this new environment. We turned to Brian Fairbanks. He's a CEO of trek's, it is a New York Stock Exchange listed company, TRE X, not surprisingly, is the ticker to put into your Bloomberg terminal. They manufacture non wood decking alternative products. The decking railing, all that kind of stuff that people do to their homes. Brian, thanks so much for joining us here. Really appreciate it. Tell us about your business. How is it faring? I know, I'm just looking at the chart, the stock's down this year is one of those many are. But one of those sectors that doesn't really do well with rising interest rates, but talk to us about the state of your business. Hey, good morning, Matt and Paul. Thanks for having me on this morning. The consumers for outdoor living products have remained remarkably resilient over this year. Past couple of years, we've grown quite significantly as people have been spending more time expanding their existing living areas. As we moved into this year, of course, we've seen inflation start to catch up with the consumer prices of our products have gone up as well. But what we've seen is rather than growing this year, the volume sold by our company is about flat with the prior year. And given the kind of growth that we've seen, we're pretty pleased with that. So inflation is definitely been an impact, but consumers are still flocking to the tracks brand. What about the stock? I mean, the chart is pretty amazing to behold. As Paul said, you know, a lot of companies got to run up in the reopening push at the end of last year and then cratered this year, but what happened in October, November, I mean, it just took off from like 80 to one 40 in span of a few weeks. We were absolutely a beneficiary during the pandemic run up as we moved into the later stages of the pandemic. We announced significant sales growth and then adding additional capacity in Little Rock Arkansas and with that, the market may have gotten a little bit ahead of itself. And the back half of this year coming out of our second quarter earnings, we announced that we would be reducing the back half of the year by about $200 million to take into account inventory that had been built in the channel. You heard me mentioned earlier that our sales to consumer have been flat year over year, but our channel did build assuming that they would grow 15 to 20% in 2022. And we felt that we should be aggressive, get that inventory normalized so that we can start with the right level of inventories moving into 2023. So talk to us about the competitive nature of your business here. How fragmented is it? What is your position? How do you think about market share in your business? Composite decking and railing is a very unique business. There are three major players in the marketplace. Brex has about 50% market share, the number two competitor has about 25% market share and the number three competitor has about 15% market share. So it is a consolidated industry and all three of the competitors understand the value within the industry itself and we each make the other better in the industry. So the sustainability side of it is that a benefit that consumers are into. Absolutely. Thank you for asking that. Trex is very unique in that 95% of the content that we use in our deck boards is recycled and reclaimed. At deck board is made of roughly 50% recycled plastic and the other 50% is from reclaimed wood. We get that from furniture, flooring, and other manufacturers that have wood scrap. So it's a very unique manufacturing environment where we have a lot of variability going into the plant with our raw materials. But our manufacturing technology allows us to strip out those that variability that comes through in the raw material and create a very consistent high value added product at the end of the line. What does that chain look like? It's so fascinating to me because, well, right now, we've just come out of cop 27, right? Or maybe people are still there in Sharm el Sheik. Talking about this global plastic problem. And here you are, you found here in the U.S. at least. One small solution doing your part. Where do you get the plastic? You know, what are the prices like, how do you how do you put that all together? Brex has been using recycled content in our product. Since day one, we've been in business for over 30 years now. So part of the culture of this organization to be doing green solutions. The push for ESG over the past years has been a benefit where more
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And I'm John sucker in the Bloomberg news room with this Bloomberg business flash this on a day when we've got some more hawkish sonic TED Talk speaking in New York that fed vice chair said the U.S. Central Bank will need to keep interest rates high for some time to come to bring down inflation. S&P 500 is higher though, that is up 8 points at the sell off of two tenths of a percent. The Dow, 40 points slower. That's now a tenth of a percent and the tech heavy NASDAQ 100 bought the best levels of the session. 41 points higher right now that is up four tenths of a percent. We check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the treaty day right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker That is your Bloomberg business flash Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate it. We are awaiting remarks from President Biden from The White House remarks regarding hurricane Ian and the federal response. And when he comes up to the podium, we'll bring those remarks to you live. In the meantime, let's check in with Brian Sullivan Bloomberg whether reporter he's been busy this last few days. Brian, it looks like hurricane Ian is left Florida, but it's not done yet, is it? No, we're going to have another landfall this afternoon probably after 3 o'clock on the South Carolina coast. All right, so yeah, okay, Brian, still there, bud? Yeah. Okay, so all right, it's gonna look like it's gonna hit South Carolina, right? Yeah, so it's gonna come in at South Carolina. It's gonna have a storm surge on the good news. If there is good news about a hurricane hitting the United States, you said it looks like it may spare Charleston, South Carolina, some of its worst. Damages. Right, Brian, give us some of the updates from Florida. What's the damage like there and how are people coping? The damage is really catastrophic. There are in the process of doing a three part search for survivors and people who are injured or may have died as well. They are in their second phase of this three part search and so far, it looks like the deaths are around 20 or a little higher than that Property damage is really catastrophic. As you saw, probably the pictures of the water up over the roofs of these houses, it's going to take probably weeks or months to figure out just how much it costs, but it would be north of $70 billion probably. Just to clarify the president will be speaking this morning and we'll bring that to you. The remarks this morning will be in the east room for the Jewish new year celebration. Remarks regarding hurricane Ian will be at a time later to be determined. Brian down in Florida here, I mean, the damage is obviously extensive here. Is there any sense as to estimate for kind of how bad it was because it just seems historic some of the images we see on the screen. This was a historic storm. This is probably the strongest storm to hit southwestern Florida in recorded history, which goes back to 1851. It is one of the strongest storms to hit the United States. In general, in any terms, since 1851, the damage throughout that area, especially in Lee county, looks overwhelming. I mean, you have whole roads that are just completely washed away. Bridges out to some of those barrier islands that are impassable. So people are trapped out there. There's just it's like I said, it's going to take months to figure this out. Brian, let's look forward to this evening in the rest of the weekend. What is the expectation that Ian does for the next couple of days? I'm reading on the Bloomberg that the impacts at least today Friday are not going to be to the extent that we saw in Florida in recent days. They won't, it's not as powerful. It came into Florida as a category four and it's going to hit South Carolina as a category one, which is significantly weaker. The damage will be, though, it can still push 5, 6 feet of water up on shore and that's a very flat area down there. So you can get a lot of inland flooding. And then on top of that, you may get up to a foot of rain through most of South Carolina right about a half a foot of rain through North Carolina and Virginia and that includes some of the mountain areas. So as you know, The Rain hits the mountains and that turns into massive flash flooding and so we could still see some damage all the way through tomorrow. Brian, talk give some perspective on this hurricane season. How has it been year to date? And how much longer do we have to deal with this this year? So the hurricane season was pretty strange, actually. We've had a few we had a few storms very early in the season and then we just went into this lull that lasted all the way through August, which is very rare. And then we had a burst of activity, especially in the last ten days here with Ian and then earlier we had Fiona that hit Puerto Rico and the Canadian maritimes. We are probably in the last week of the most active phase of the Atlantic season. So we'll get through next week and we should be in good shape. And then it just starts to trail down. We'll get storms, obviously we'll get storms in the Weston Caribbean. And that's not to say we can't have damaging storms because sandy was a late season storm. Everyone should remember that. A lot of your reporting Brian's about the impact on energy on power right and folks staying connected. What is the kind of recovery efforts and also forward planning to mitigate some of that? So it looks
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm John Tucker. That is your Bloomberg business flash map, and Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate that. Good stuff as always. And guess you're just kind of flowing into the studio these days. So we're getting back to the old days, which is good getting people come in. We can get into some good conversations. Amy O'Brien joins us. She's global head of responsible investing at nuveen. Amy, it is, you know, it's climate week here in New York in addition to being the UN General Assembly, so I'm guessing this is a big, big week for you. How do you guys at nuveen kind of describe responsible investing? What's that mean to you? Well, responsible investing is our umbrella term for how we credibly embed ESG factors into investment decision making, how we use our influence in the market through our stewardship practices and how we measure and manage positive and negative impact. So we had a guest on here a few weeks ago, maybe a month ago. And he has an ETF out calling. He might have, I can't remember his name, but he has a DR IL drill. And each time basically, companies should just maximize profit. They should influence social policy. Their job is to maximize profit. And if that's buying an oil and gas company fine, policy makers will take care of all the other stuff. How do you think about that at nuveen? Yeah, I think that's a debate that's been going on. I mean, the field is over 5 decades old. And I think one of the realities, though, is the client interest in ESG investing in stewardship practices and impact strategies is stronger than ever. There are a lot of companies themselves who have committed to tackling different types of issues like climate risk and investing in opportunities. So while we certainly don't think that the whole world will just be ESG leaders tomorrow, we think that all the momentum around these factors and what's driving growth means that ESG is here to stay despite some of those some of those views. I'm old school Wall Street, my first job, my trade will just come up to me every single day my head trader and say, make money. Don't lose money. And then walk away. That was my pep talk. ESG investing, do I make do I get superior returns? Do I sacrifice some returns to do social good? What's the data show? ESG and responsible investing is all about making money. And that has been the approach that many of us who are based at commercially oriented firms have to take. We have to be careful about what we mean by ESG, as an ESG commitment, ESG outcome, there are the Devils in the details when we're talking about this field. But we're grounded in the views that these factors can help us manage risk across multiple asset classes. They're uncovering very unique kinds of investment opportunities that clients want. And based on where the policy environment is going, we're well positioned to meet the future demand from clients. So we were just talking with a head of ETF business at DWS and she pointed out that the E is a little squishier, right? The S is pretty easy to identify. And as well as the G but E is where you get a debate. Germans will say nuclear is horrendous for the environment and the rest of Europe I think just made nuclear green. How do you deal with this kind of taxonomy issue? That we're still trying to figure out. All right, look, I'll get down to data and taxonomy. But then it gets, then you have to add on what are the client's own views. And so we have to build out a robust system for which our investment teams can have access to credible ESG information across all companies, use that alongside the fundamental research. But increasingly, we're seeing clients come to us and ask us for very specific portfolios, separately managed accounts that do express your view. So you have to be careful about what clients get when it comes to ESG versus what across the board in terms of investment discipline versus what they're coming and asking. And many of us do have very customized beliefs depending on the region they're in and we have to work with those clients accordingly. And I guess probably number one conundrum is something like an oil company, right? Like BP is that an ESG offender because they are pulling oil out of the ground and causing environmental problems or is that a leader in ESG because they're looking at alternatives and trying to change the way we think of and use energy. Yeah, I think we have to also be careful not to have black and white views on here. I mean a lot of investors are working with large companies such as BP and others to map out what the transition will be to a lower engine working with ExxonMobil. And you've seen all a lot of proxy votes this year, shareholder resolutions on this topic. And so, you know, we aren't taking a stand at nuveen, energy good or bad. It's really about a case by case working with each company understanding what their strategy is for our views about the long-term transition towards a low carbon economy. And so BP could be used by different investors in different portfolios, but we have to be precise as asset managers about what our view is and when
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Matt and Paul, John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Nobody likes a good M and a trade more than me because again, the first thing I do is I go the MA page and I see who the bankers are. And my good friend Frank quatro advised the seller, so I know he got maximum price from this. So Adobe spin a software company, Adobe is down 16%. What is going on? I don't want ragana. He covers all things technology for Bloomberg intelligence. He's located. I have no idea where, but we haven't been to Bloomberg interactive broker studio here in New York today. On Iraq, Adobe, a great company, a big market cap, and this is a 150 billion market cup companies. Stocks down 16% on this, what's up? So you think about it when I looked at the deal, I said, okay, 20 billion, it must have good financials. They're going to do 200 million in annual recurring revenue. It's a private company. They're going to do maybe 400 million after that. So if you do a little bit of math around it, that means 50 times sales or sales, hundred times sales, cash flow. So I think that's what's happening here. The street is saying, why are you overpaying so much for an asset where the contribution to the top line is going to be very small and the bottom line is actually going to dilute your margins. It is insane to pay that much, especially now when valuations have come in, what are people paying for similar assets? So again, see, according to Adobe, this is a technology that they're buying that they nobody else has. So that's their rationale. The outside people are buying less than ten times sales right now for software companies. But once again, their argument is, this is the technology that can reshape the company. We published a note yesterday where we basically said that Adobe's long-term growth is not going to be like it has been over the past decade because it's coming to a mature business. So they really need to figure out what they do. And if that means acquisitions, they may do the acquisition. But we don't think that valuation is going to bounce back ever again like it was before the pandemic or during the pandemic. All right, so tell us what Adobe is in one sentence. Tell us what figma is in one sentence. And why Adobe wanted to buy figma and spend 20 billion large. The real killer app that Adobe has is their creative cloud product. Adobe Photoshop. All the photo editing tools that you need. Figma is a platform where people can collaborate, you are creators, you can use to exchange ideas. You can go there. It's a whiteboard all web based stuff and those two things marry very well for the next generation creator. Adobe is for sometimes it's the bane of my existence because I try and access files on my computer that I can't unless I'm subscribed to Adobe and then once I subscribe to Adobe, I found it impossible to cancel that subscription. They just suck me dry. Is everybody else or other consumers as annoyed, do they struggle to find another word do they hate Adobe as much as I do? You can open those documents using a web browser. So if you're just using a PDF opener to do that, that's a free thing. You probably downloaded a more expensive version and never deleted it from your computer, but we can talk about that another time. But so in a case, if you just want to read an document, it's okay. That's free. But if you want to signature on it, you want to go out and edit it and highlight it and send it to your teammate, then you have to pay for that particular software package. And that's the second piece of their business called a document cloud, which is all of PDF. But the real killer app is the Photoshop, which there is no graphic designer out there in the world that would not be using that for the work that they do. To me, that product is as powerful as Microsoft Excel. All right. And Paul, I guess you probably spent decades with Microsoft Excel as your number one back in the day. Most click tack in the day. And the analyst program. Sure. Absolutely. It was before it was before excel, actually. I can't remember what we had before excel. What do we use on our own? I don't know, WordPress. All right, I'm bringing up one of Matt Miller's favorite functions here. Comparative returns. Adobe over the last 5 years, not about 15% return, the S&P, about 11%. So it's done pretty well. I see a lot of buy ratings out there for Adobe 6 or 7 kind of hold ratings, no cells, so the streets still likes this name. What's the theme behind the bullish call here? So go back and FI 14 or 2014, 2015. The company went into a massive undertake of changing their business model. Went from a license model to a subscription model. Unbelievable success since then, very strong growth rate, 15% plus. In fact, I would say closer to 20%, margin expansion like you have not seen as of today, margins are closer to 45% adjusted operating margins for this company. So massive margin expansion, and that was an entire call yesterday that, okay, it's done exceedingly well in the last ten odd years or 7, 8 years. But now they're coming to a point that 20% growth rate goes to closer to 13 to 15 and there is no margin expansion
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Flash, Matt and Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate that a little bit of a lift to these markets today. We'll take it after yesterday's carnage. Let's check in with pretty good. She's a bloomer markets correspondent. She got a little macro minute for us. And we'll give her more than a minute. However long she needs. A whole minute. We'll give you as much time as you want. Yeah. What is this Christmas? You know what? Eric, let's blow the brakes, okay? We're just taking pretty for the rest of the show. What do we have? We have 57 minutes and 20 seconds left. Go. Wow. Are you gonna be here the whole time? Cool. Let's talk about the two year yield here. Three 77, the move is already what's only about I want to say two basis points right now. But I think what's interesting in the movie saw yesterday. Yeah, I don't know. Go ahead, man. I was gonna say. I mean, yesterday, it shot through the roof and it's pretty amazing to me what happened on the ten year, but the two year is at least this is what Mike McKee tells me, more sensitive to fed rate expectations. Far more sensitive, and it rose about 21 basis points in just one session. That's how big of a move it was. And this is the repricing that we were talking about earlier in the show. The idea that the market is now saying, well, you know what? It's not a question of 50 or 75. It is going to be 75 or potentially 100. I think you said it was 84 basis points at fed swaps are now pricing in when it comes to the rate hike. Obviously, we only go in either 75 or hundred, so the market expecting 75. I don't know why that's a convention they don't break. What's that? If I, if I were the fed chief, I would say, you know what? We're going to raise rates by 83 basis points. No, we can't do that. No. There's too much of a conversation. What's the deal with between 82 and 83? That's too much now. The ECB, I think once did either ten or 15 basis points. And also this is why Matt is not in charge of the Federal Reserve. Or this thing is exactly. One of the main reasons, exactly. But the two people now have three 77. Here's why this is important. I think the twos tens curve inversion is also worth talking about here because we're talking about that as a recession indicator. I'm just going to pull this up on my handy dandy Bloomberg terminal, the inversion is still negative 37 basis points here. So we're not at the 50, which is usually the recession signal. But inverted, nonetheless, and not getting any better. All right, critic Gupta Bloomberg markets correspondent. Thank you so much. We appreciate it. Let's go to Robert teeter. He's head of investment policy and strategy group at silvercrest asset management. Boy, Robert, yesterday. If you're in a head of investment policy and strategy group, everybody's looking to you at the 401k yesterday, what'd you tell your team? Yeah, it's a great question. And it was, as you've noted, one of the wildest days to the downside in a long time. I think one of the themes that we've focused on has been something we focused on, really from the beginning of this pandemic era, which is patients and taking some context. And I think as many others have noted, yesterday's move was really only a reversal of about one week's worth of gains in the prior week. And so that's something that we really focused in on and saying, yes, there's been a change here. Yes, the inflation number was worse than expected. Our work shows that inflation versus expectations is a really critical reading for forward returns in that month window between CPI readings. But overall, it really took us back just about a week in terms of where the S&P had been. And so that says that there was a lot of optimism built into that report. Didn't come through quite as planned. But I think the CPI print wasn't quite as bad as yesterday's numbers in isolation would have made it out to be really more reversal of the prior week. So again, this concept of patients and sort of looking through the numbers a little bit, things are going to take some time to settle down. Do you think there was do you think there were opportunities created yesterday or do we still need to Gary Schilling who normally is very conservative? He's very reserved. He's a very polite man. I've known him for 48 years now. Really? Yeah, I grew up with him. But yesterday or no, on Monday, he said, we haven't seen the market puke yet. Oh. And until that kind of regurgitation happens until yesterday. Average investor sells his last stock and says, I'm never going to buy one again. All right. Then you're not going to see this these drops can stop. What do you think? I think yesterday was a pretty good indication of that. You certainly had very high readings in terms of stocks trading down versus up near record levels. In my view to really firmly get into that camp of feeling that we're out of the Woods, it will take another two to three solid prints on CPI. Again, I don't think yesterday was quite as bad as it seemed. But it sort of resets the clock a little bit in terms of expectations. And I think CPI, inflation really is the most critical indicator on the short term outlook. I think as we think ahead to next year and things like that, earnings are a bit more important. But in the short term, it's all about inflation here. And all about that process of forward rates. We think there's a really strong relationship between the forward rate curve and expectations on the terminal rate versus how the market has been trading in the short term. And that's something that we've got a very close eye on as we look to these interim periods in between CPI reading. So it's really become the most important metric in the markets in the short term. How about valuation? I'm an old equities analyst. How do you guys think about valuation in this market right here, particularly after yesterday's sell off? I know a lot of people still have earnings concerns the back half of this year going into early next year. What's the valuation call for you guys? Yeah, do you care more about price book or price sales than price earnings? What are the metrics that you care about? Yeah, so I focus mostly on price earnings and thinking about forward earnings at this point starting to think about earnings for next year. I think consensus is around plus 7 or 8% or so, we're probably more in the camp of about 5% up on earnings just thinking that there's still some lingering problems here that markets are fighting through and there's still certainly some downward pressure to come on the economy because of the rate cycle. But purely in terms of PEs, these have come down quite a bit. So in terms of next year's earnings on consensus
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Well, it's here to stay. We have a lot of inflation uncertainty. We also have uncertainty around the fed reaction function. How does the fed respond to a high inflation low growth environment? So I think in the uncertain environment, volatility stays high. You think you lost money in the first half? Elon Musk's fortune plunged almost $62 billion. Jeff Bezos saw his wealth tumbled by about 63 billion, Mark Zuckerberg's net worth was slashed by more than half. All told, the world's 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of this year. That's a dizzying decline that marks the steepest 6 month drop ever for global billionaires. An Airbus winning one of the biggest ever orders for 292 airliners worth more than $37 billion from four Chinese airlines that's a coup for the European manufacture as it tussles with Boeing for dominance in Asia's largest economy. And Goldman Sachs surpassing Morgan Stanley to become the top underwriter of global equity offerings this comes as the value of deals fail 69% year to date compared with the same period last year. Right now the Dow 64 points lower. That's about two tenths of a percent lower. S&P 500 three points lower than NASDAQ is down ten points. The real action in treasuries with a ten year yield 13 basis points lower is down to two 87. We check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the treaty day right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker. That is your Bloomberg business flash, Matt and Paul. John Tucker, thank
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To Goldman Sachs history suggests the fed will face a difficult task in tightening policy to cool inflation without causing a recession they put the odds of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years As we look at the most active among them shares of Twitter right now that's kind of gyrating as Elon Musk his takeover battle continues and shares a Twitter right now about 1% and we check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the trigger Right here on Bloomberg radio I'm John Tucker That is your Bloomberg business flash Mountain Paul John Tucker you're John Tucker you're not Greg Jarrett You are the legend The pride of the highlands New Jersey Atlantic Don't get those two confused I know I know I know Who knows where Greg Jarrett is today He's writing another chapter in his book which we have yet to see right Matt I'm all in I pre ordered that Yes I pre ordered the Greg Jarrett bio book There's so many stories in there John thanks so much for joining us There John Tucker All right we've got I'm calling it nothing going on in this market I'm calling it officially for the S&P 500 Pretty good And she's down Zero happening nada Not it And that's okay It's a Monday after Easter That's okay We got plenty to deal with in terms of earnings Pretty Gupta Bloomberg markets correspondent Jordan says what are you looking at Gritty I'm looking at extremely low volume which would explain why there's a whole lot of nothing going on in the stock market That being so I go go I go and volumes down the S&P 500 fifteen percent relative to the ten day moving average Dow Jones 22% Where is everybody About 12% on a 5 day They're all in Europe enjoying the day off that we didn't get Yes What is up with Stay off air That's an instrument Yeah dude It's an important holiday for the Christian religion and a huge portion of Irish Catholic But I'm here at work Okay but maybe it's a little bit blasphemous Here you come in It might be All right Europeans just came out the Al from Jersey on that one Europeans just get way more holidays than we do I think there's something like 12 more bank holidays in London than they do They work hard The whole summer off too You can not get a meeting in Europe and August Yeah And even Joel let's be honest I'll just go ahead and say good I don't know when it became like the thing to work yourself to death This is Paul this is your generation right Yes Why is that something to strive for Like why not give us more days off Take off the month of August It seems so civilized It does Because if you're not killing yourself you are not being productive apparently Apparently Apparently I'm with you though I would love another day off That being said I think one of the things we should be keeping a track on in the market is going to be yields and I know I've been saying this everyone's been saying this forever and ever and ever but obviously inflation fed yada yada yada But you're looking at like two 83 on the ten year no major moves today also flat given low volume But I think what's interesting today and I'm going to plug in my chart of the day here is that treasuries now offer more yield than Chinese government bonds which I think is extremely important You never would have thought to put those two together Well it's important because right China is an emerging market So just by very very simple EM knowledge that I think Damian SaaS hour would be Would approve of is that simply EM is more risky more volatile Therefore it should be yielding more right If there's more risk you should get more reward in theory And for a very long time there has been a premium to Chinese government bonds and the yields that they provide only I believe today they are now offering less than what a ten year bond is And there's two reasons for this And I think kind of holds nicely actually into our TV colleagues question of the day which is what's the biggest threat to U.S. growth was actually China here right Because they're an expert oriented economy and yet you are seeing slowing growth you are seeing COVID lockdowns A lot of which by the way extended to American supply chains And although perhaps the Chinese consumer isn't as and I want to phrase this very I want to say consequential to the global economy as the American consumers given that they aren't export oriented economy it's still matters If China isn't growing they're not going to be exporting enough They're not going to be producing more at a time when there's a lot of supply chain issues And on top of that they were expected to ease on Friday and they didn't do that which is also a local concern because successor isn't enough kind of stimulative measures whereas here in the United States and I would say a lot of the west you're looking at hiking pretty aggressively So there is that policy diversions has kind of sending mixed messages and I think for a lot of investors who are saying do we want to be exposed to China right now They're looking at these bonds and they're saying well not really when you could get an even safer bet and then even higher yield right here in the US Treasury market German Matt I'm looking at the German two year and a ten year positive numbers The other pain they're paying interest on all of the debt they need So you leave the country and things just improve immediately I leave the country and investors are willing to sell the debt right They're willing to let go of the perceived safety of government paper Now right now it's interesting that we do see leadership in the markets you know there's not a lot of movement obviously on the benchmark indexes but if you look deeper you'll see energy is up right With crude rising one 2% today you'll see IT So tech stocks are big gainers today So you do see investors willing to take risk and let go of Look what the losers are pretty Healthcare consumer Staples real estate So investors are willing to let go of.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"As the NASDAQ declines semiconductors leading losses there on the other hand the S&P 500 and the Dow they are rising utilities industrials and financial to the best performing groups in the broader index a crash in Bitcoin over the weekend continuing this morning down another 2% at 48,265 per token Economist Dennis Garmin says stocks Well as far as he's concerned they are entering a bear market A bear market is required at this point we had an expansion for a long period of time And I think over the course of next year he or she who loses the least amount of money will be the winner The NCC opening an investigation into Tesla or wizard whistleblower claims on solar panel defects that's according to Reuters Morgan Stanley strategists say they're not that concerned about omicron as a major risk for equities Tapering may be a bigger concern for stocks they say And the online publisher BuzzFeed opening this morning after a spac merger it was trading at $11 41 cents a share Dow Jones Industrial Average of 468 points a rise at 1.4% The S&P 500 twenty four points higher a half a percent were at 45 62 that ends their composite index 39 points lower as down the three tenths of a percent of 15,000 48 and right now the mix volatility index 28 98 We check the markets we were every 15 minutes during the trade today right here on Bloomberg radio I'm John Tucker That isher Bloomberg business flash Paul John Tucker thank you so much we appreciate that Tom Kean appreciates the vix quote as well Mark drivers this morning is brought to you by with them More than CPAs they are trusted advisers offering smart business solutions to help companies innovate grow and stay secure in today's complex world visit with them dot com for more red and green on the screen NASDAQ that's in the red today so a little bit of concerns about rising interest rates I would suspect let's go to the expert Bloomberg markets correspondent credit group to create what are you looking at There we go Yeah one of the major stories is of course going to be this EV boom that went kind of bus sort of Tesla falling after a Reuters report of an SEC investigation And the reason I bring it up is because this is going to have a major market impact in terms of the index level So you can see that this is one of the companies that is weighing down of course the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 and it looks like it's after the SC is opening up an investigation on whistleblower claims on solar panel defects Here's the kicker though if the decline holds which I believe is down over 5% at the moment Tesla will have dropped more than 20% from its November 4th high There's the big B word bear market for that company So that's gonna be something that you hearing from a lot of companies last week about Facebook I believe there was at one point that Apple was continuing to see on its way for a bear market The question is at what point do you start to see that reflecting the index level And the answer is not yet Well we do see a lot of tech stocks falling today but the rates aren't enough that much I mean we're still looking at one 37 83 on the ten year right now which to me I'm still a little bit shell shocked by Friday's drop Why are investors not today but over the last couple of trading sessions piling into bonds if the fed is turned hawkish and is going to raise rates Don't you want to wait and buy the new bonds at a higher rate rather than buying these crappy bonds at low rates You should be a bond trader Matt I'm sure that's the exact jargon they use Well to answer your question that I mean you're seeing yields higher today You saw yields lower last week It keeps flipping from red to green And I know this isn't a very satisfactory answer but no one knows what's going on in the bond market right now until you get the FOMC meeting It's just not going to happen or until you get the inflation print later this week as well So right now you are quite literally seeing yields just kind of trade sideways from day to day There aren't these massive moves that are really dictating And that's why I think it's clear that tech isn't responding to yields right now It's kind of doing its own thing And these are mostly stock specific stories This isn't like a tech broadly selling off Facebook had its own issues with their own investigation with their whistleblower concern Tesla now dealing with their own SEC investigation Apple talking about the supply chain concerns in addition to the fact that demand might be coming down as well So these aren't this isn't a tech trade as a whole that we kind of have come to know in 2020 and 2021 These are stock specific stories And in some ways Matt I might get a lot of pushback for saying this But in some ways they're trading on fundamentals as opposed to some sort of broader theme I know I know I said the F word it's horrible So all right I need to go back to this Tesla story and this is going to be my cynical call of the day Is anybody calling out Elon Musk for selling stock ahead of an SEC investigation Oh I don't want to comment on that I'm not seeing anything out there but boy that's the first thing that jumped out at me when I see an SEC investigation then I read over the weekend that he sold over $10 billion But to be.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Have it the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange The opening bell report being brought to you by SEI challenges highlighted with one's character partnership and resilience set SEI they act as one community with their clients I see dot com slash banks After yesterday's one and a quarter point sell off in the tech heavy NASDAQ looks like that decline is continuing in today's cash market A bond yield has been on the rise again providing an unwelcome surprise to attack investors NASDAQ composite index out of the gate right now down two tenths of a percent 36 points lower S&P 500 down by just one point right now and the downturns of dust or leverage in the green up 47 points in the early going of a tenth of a percent at 35,670 which had the markets every 15 minutes during the trading day right here on Bloomberg radio I'm Jon Tucker That is your Bloomberg opening bell report Tom And Paul John Tucker thanks so much Year to date Dow up 17% There's a Boeing issue there We'll get to Boeing here in a moment Standard reports 500 small double digit year up 27% And I think way under discussed right now is the NASDAQ 100 with a month or two months it's had is up 27% Paul the NASDAQ 100 is outperformed the standard of poorest 500 Yep 11 months into the year No one knows so that coming I did not I was on my cyclical play Joining us now the only one that saw this coming Christopher sandy Chris you know the consensus 11 months ago 12 months ago was big tech okay that was fine It's done What happened Thomas interesting because there's a lot going on under the surface Yeah the NASDAQ 100 is doing great But do you know there's more new lows NASDAQ than there's been since March of 2020 And so if the risks are getting richer but boy these low earnings BioTech kind of high multiple stocks that we've seen blow up every day They're really getting slam I agree And to me this strange word folks breadth and Christy identify how you manage money given the lack of breadth that's out there It's just like 7 stocks going up We'll be honest and transparent answer Tom as we do the best we can But we for example we own Visa And we've gotten our head handed to us with Visa but we're buying more So I think there's some opportunities being created which haven't really existed for the last year or so And we're trying to take advantage of them So I think it's time to kind of Gertrude loins and pick your spots right All right so Chris I'm trying to pick my spots for 2022 It's Thanksgiving over the break I'll be reading a bunch of 2022 outlook notes from Wall Street I feel like the one thing I gotta get right is my inflation call How do you think about 2022 Am I looking at the right spot Yeah no you know you're looking at the exact right spot but the older I get the more I know what I don't know And this is going to be a tough call Paul because Mike I do think we're at peak bottleneck right now So I think that's going to ease The question is does inflation ease because of that or are wage gains starting to get built in in a real troublesome way And I honestly think the answer to that is yes So I'm concerned about that I'm concerned that the market will be concerned about that by midyear and anticipate a rate hike in mid or late in the next year So you're asking the right question I think yeah So Chris I've been told by pros like yourself that the only thing that or what really ends bull markets is a mistake and perhaps a mistake from the Federal Reserve could be in the offing for 2022 How do you think the fed is going to behave next year It's funny Well one person's mistake is another person's necessity to stop rampant inflation So yeah we never want to see a fed hike And the fed could turn from our best friend for the last 18 months to somebody who doesn't return our calls anymore So I'm afraid that's going to happen I don't think they're going to think it's a mistake Right Now I do think that the reappointment of power I think he will stay the course and he'll keep it lower for longer but then that becomes a double edged sword too because that means inflation might run harder than it otherwise would have run long-term So it's a lot of movement parts though Yeah a lot of moving parts here folks Turkish liras been the highlight today out for standard deviations against the Euro at one point A stronger lira off a meeting of Erdoğan with a Central Bank head 12.44 on lira was 13.50 So lira better in the last two hours 30 year bond 1.99% ten year yield 1.71 .64% two year yield comes in .64 100.61% as well And the equity market Christmas anti joins us now You know Chris I look at the split here in the companies that seem to be valued and treasured have shocking free cash flow including share buybacks Are there a lot of other companies like that or are they that unique Well there aren't we don't think so Tom Our portfolio is about 22 stocks And that's that big cash flow They have to be able to redeploy that cash flow at high returns not just this year but at least three to 5 years into the future So that gets you the FANG Stocks that get you a bunch of other things like we think Boeing will become that company again That gets you Disney because of the moat they have around their content But I do think those are going to be when things get tougher I think they will in 2022 Those are going to be the companies that kind of stand out and get appreciated by that And Paul this is totally agree with you What Chris just said It's important that he said there is 22 steps Remember the old days if you had anything under 300 stocks you were under diversified Exactly And that's why the Janice 20 fund always kind of stuck out to me as a big stock play there Hey Kris I know you guys have liked a Boeing And I can report that I took my first pandemic trip a couple weeks ago back and forth the Phoenix on a Boeing 7 37 max And I can report everything went well I feel like it's the safest plane in the air How do you feel about Boeing these days I feel really good because and here's why We look as I mentioned before for stocks with high returns on capital Boeing's right net Boeing right now has so much hair on it It's like sasquatch But that's exactly if you think they can turn things around This is the time to buy.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"John Tucker. And that is your Bloomberg business. Flash man, Paul John Tucker. Thanks very much for that. JT with your Bloomberg business flash. Now, let's talk about cybersecurity because we've seen so many of these ransom where attacks Colonial pipeline and JBs the biggest of late, um But we've also seen issues pop up yesterday. It turned out to be maybe a fat finger on part of Fastly, but it kind of freaked out markets For a moment We saw charts go a little bit haywire when the the Internet appeared to stop working for a moment. Shannon Wilkinson joins US founder and CEO of to Go Cyber And just just in in terms of what we saw. Yesterday, Shannon turned out to be nbd. But for for for a moment, it seemed as if something horrible may have happened. Is it possible that a cyber attack could just shut down the World Wide Web for a little while? Absolutely it would be interesting. And if you remember a couple years ago, the Internet went down on the East Coast due to another fat finger configuration error. At one of the domain registry services, So it's absolutely possible, either that a cyber attack or one of these engineer issues could absolutely take the Internet down, and even Russia had some issues with their Internet when they tried to do some sort of blocking of Twitter and some of the social media platforms that their ISP level They actually fat being heard or made some configuration errors and took down the Internet within Russia for about half a day. I think it was so it's key. It's key to point out this doesn't mean It's not simply, you know, no more cat photos on instagram. There are ways that the Internet works, um that in these times, you know that are vital to human life, right? Yes, absolutely. I mean, we live in a very connected world, and we've seen this migration to the cloud as well as digitalization of business, so everything is connected. Now, businesses are relying on Internet cloud providers to provide essential business services. And when those services aren't available, business stops Shannon. It just seems like it's getting so much more frequent here. Give us a sense of how much of this is just You know, knucklehead in a garage somewhere, you know up to no good versus maybe some state actors or organized crime. Where is this all coming from? It's definitely a combination of both the colonial pipeline and the JBs is. Those are more state sponsored affiliate cybercrime groups. And then you also have on the flip side. What is known as the script Kitties the You Know, a typical hooded basement dwelling hacker that you know is just going out there for fun and seeing what You know, kind of disruption or damage they can do so it's definitely a combination of both of those factors and businesses Just really need to, um, think about Their services and what they do and how much they rely on their technology for business in the colonial CEOs testimony to Congress yesterday we found out that they didn't even have a ransomware plan in place, even though they spend something like $40 million a year on cybersecurity. They never even considered what would happen if we got hit by ransomware attack. They didn't even have a two step. Security process. I mean, I can't even log into my computer at work without submitting my fingerprint, or, you know a code from a token in any case. Um Hmm. There's the opposite side of that, right? Like the company that runs crack, and we had a great story about them. They have gone as far as to make your kids eight year old kids sign end a agreements when they go to Company picnics and you've got to change into everybody wears the same clothes at work so that they won't be able to the bad guys won't be able to tell exactly who you are. You've got to kill all your social media. Um, profiles. How far do do companies need to be going, Jen? I think it's about finding a balance. Cracking might be going a little bit over the top on their security protocols, but I think it's about finding a good balance of what makes sense. And what is secure, so definitely ensuring that you have two factor Authentication. I mean colonial pipeline. We found out I think Bloomberg broke the news, but it was due to a single compromised account at Colonial pipeline. That was the factor that resulted in the ransomware attack there. So a single employee account allowed the ransomware to be activated on the network. So enabling two factor authentication having security. Protocols in place having plans for when incidents occur, and just really finding a good balance between what Will not disrupt the secure the operations of the business and what's a good balance for security at the business as well. So you know, kind of a marriage of business strategy and cybersecurity strategy, working together to make sure that the business can continue operating in this new digital age. Shannon. Thanks so much for joining us really appreciate getting your thoughts on insight on this rising issue of ransomware in corporate America. Shannon Wilkinson, founder and CEO of a tagger to go cyber Right now, let's head down to Washington, D. C. Let's get world and national news. We do that with Nathan Hager. Nathan Paul President, Biden is on his way to Europe for a round of talks with leaders of Allied countries, plus a meeting with Vladimir Putin. Bloomberg's Irv.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"John Tucker and bad Is your Bloomberg business. Flash Paul John Tucker, Thank you so much. We appreciate that. Well, a lot of commodity strategists air telling folks, particularly East Coast to get ready to pay more for gas, and it's not just because we're going into the summer driving season. It's because we're gonna supply problem here. Colonial pipeline. Shut down and that pipeline supplies most of the East Coast and let's get the latest on that. We're pleased to have J. Hatfield He's the founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management, J. Thanks so much for joining us here and again. You look at the map of the colonial pipeline and boy, it just goes right up the eastern seaboard suggesting that the folks you know on the East Coast are really gonna supply issues. What do you think? How do you think this is gonna develop? Great. Well, thanks for having me on well, one thing that's important to note about. Product pipelines is that they can be transported using service transportation. In other words, barges, um rail and truck. So we would. We were expecting a fairly muted response, which is what we're getting so far. So, in fact, if you want to look on the terminal C R A C K u only seeing about a 35 cent increase in the definitely crack To New York Harbor, which makes sense because, of course that could be supplied by European Refineries. Where were you just walk us through Jane, the crack spread. What is that? So just sit profitability of refining oil into gasoline in this in this case Until what we're not seeing on their screens. Wells a little bit weak and our barber the year Carver's moving up just a tiny bit, But what you can't see on the screens is areas that, um Are less liquid in there. There's no trading. But for instance, in Tennessee and landlocked South Eastern states, so there You're likely to get some increased, but it's gonna be capped to spy shipping or transportation cost. Other than maybe a few cases of hoarding. We don't expect any significant shortages, but I think it does point out the vulnerability and of the Energy infrastructure and in particular, um, more sensitive systems or obviously electricity until lesser degree natural gas, which is what he saw in Super Stone, Yuri where when you have The electric market goes out tends to shut down other things like natural gas production, whereas refined products like as I mentioned, can be shipped using alternative methods. Jay. What do you think the issue here is? I mean, you have any sense for the duration of this Shut down, And is there a point where it really does become a supply problem. Well, it Z. The key issue is safety, so it's extent that the heart gets into the operational software and you have explosive fuels. It's not like just bringing up Regular computer system, So it's not exactly clear how long it could go. But again, it's Other than some potential for recording. Shouldn't be like when the refinery shutdown hurricane we have actual supply problem. It's just the logistics issue so caps the The potential shortage by the fact that you can just move the product from different refineries, either in the U. S air overseas so we don't really see this is kept a catastrophe. Just perhaps some localized shortages. I've been trying to figure out all day in terms of the nature of the commodities market. Why can't we price in something like a demand shock or production squeeze ahead of The forecast Ex ante, so to speak. It doesn't seem like you know if we all knew oil was going to be a 80. By the end of the year. Why wouldn't it go to 80 now? Well, what happened when it happened was a commodity markets is they develop momentum either downward or Upward momentum. We saw the downward momentum last year We had negative $40 oil so usually they can tend to build and they're not going to really have that. Spike until we really see the demand specifically what we're watching. Is Europe. So Europe is about a month behind the U. S in terms of vaccinations, So we're really predicting global travel. Get in if they do catch up as we're expecting. And just the nature commodity markets. They don't They don't. They're not really good at anticipation, so it'll happen when it happens. Jairo, Quick, 30 seconds. What your call for oil here. We got wt. I crewed here. It's $64.50 where you think it is Your end. Um, we think that it'll trade in the 70 $80 range with the potential for super spike and the real reason behind that is where we're calling OPEC plus plus, which is constraint of the U. S producers, mostly due to the capital markets. So we think that'll drive presidents higher than they've been since 2014. Because ever since 2014 the U. S has been the swing producer Now the companies have moved to being more valued type. Stock, so they're not going to ramp up production, which gives us Chance for prices to move higher with if there is a supply disruption. I'm not so much as to transportation disruption we could see, you know, protect the possibility of a super spike during every during the summer. All right, J Thanks so much for joining us today. Hatfield there. CEO and founder of Infrastructure Capital Management. Get over Amy Morris. Now in Washington, D C with your World National headlines, Amy That we're waiting to hear from President Biden this afternoon he's unveiling new steps to get more Americans.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Act and Bloomberg radio dot com. He's he's Bloomberg Markets. All right. I know we have some listeners who are still terrified of the Corona virus and worried about the vaccines, efficacy and the possibility of Still transmitting or getting the virus post shot, so we're gonna talk to Laurence, our Johns Hopkins University associate professor of emergency medicine on the latest surrounding Coronavirus versus Get over to John Tucker with your Bloomberg business flash part matching investors selling just before May here remains to be seen if there's gonna go away traders of sense in corporate earnings and also the economic data we got After yesterday's record close for the S and P 500 index down right now about the seven or 8/10 of a percent technology on the biggest drags on the broader market. Joe Quinlan and Bank of America is among those who say there is more fuel to power markets ahead. This economy is very resilient, and now it's working with private sector in the public sector. So you put those two together feels to me like a mixed economy, and I'm a free market diverted mixed economy, That's it. It's gonna get significant lift to growth in these new industries where there's five G renewable energies. Shares of Twitter, the biggest drag of the S and P 500 Decline of over 13% now as far as the earnings season. Maura US companies topping earnings estimates this quarterly reporting season with attack and financial sectors among the biggest winners of the 292 companies in the S and P 500 bad have announced results of the first one. Order 88% beat analysts. GPS estimates Compare that with 71% for the whole season in the year ago period. Right now we have the S and P five. Put it down. 29 points that a kind of 7/10 of a percent right now at 41 82. Down Jones Industrial average down by 244 points of a client of 7/10 of a percent of 33,815 and the NASDAQ composite index, 75 points lower. It's down, just about half a percent of 14,000 and seven way check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the trading day, right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm John Tucker. And that is your Bloomberg business. Flash Paul John Tucker. Thank you so much. We.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"paul john tucker" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is in the green of 14 points, but 10th of represented 12,902, and we check the markets for every 15 minutes during the trading day, right here on Bloomberg Radio. John Tucker. And that is your Bloomberg business. Flash tunnel. Paul John Tucker. Thank you so much reading, reading this screen again. Watching the vics and yield finally moves yields boring all day. Not now three basis points 30.94% of the 10 year watching carefully A few years ago. 40 Seven. Years ago. Hmm. A guy named John Maxie Change nonfiction writing. He's a name that everybody knows from geology and He wrote on the nuclear industry. The birch bark Canoe was a big story from reading in The New Yorker and his wonderful books taught us all about non fiction. He wrote an essay travels in Georgia. Which Paul to this day, I have tattooed to my brain. I literally I'm gonna go home and throw to the kids a pandemic crew and say, Shut up and read this. Emily Wilkens with us right now in Atlanta, Georgia. On what? John McPhee captured Emily. Which is we completely under estimate the sprawl self to North that is Georgia. How are these candidates doing as they consider the many Georges? Well, they're going basically all over the state. I mean, if your telly Leffler, the answer is is a private jet that she was using to zoom to seven different campaign events over the weekend. Of if you're a rascal worn off and John. Awesome. You have the benefit of having someone else on the campaign trail who has campaigned for you, So we've seen them all over the state we've seen off in Atlanta we found worn off in the South. Then you bring in the big guns, You know. Kamila Harris was in Savannah yesterday to buy the morphine Atlanta today and also trump and light pencil. He's coming to the state. They do their own event for rally. Different parts of the They're going to go where? You know they're Korea's. I get that. How are they appealing to the middle ground in Georgia? Or does that not exist? The middle ground definitely exists. But for the runoff, the name of the game is usually turn out for special elections like this. You're not trying to persuade people are convinced people you're trying to tell the people who are already in your corner. Hey, we know that you just got out No November 3rd and went through all this rigmarole, But you've got to go through all this rigmarole again. And so that's what really both campaigns have been focused on for this runoff election. So, Emily give us a sense of You know is the turnout expected to be big tomorrow. Absolutely. We've already seen early vote numbers for past but a lot of people were expecting. We've had three million Georgians go ahead and go early or vote via absentee. We know that a number of those air also coming from individuals who did not vote in the November 3rd election, So these are people who have been gotten engaged. Registered who had voted to have funded the whole process in less than two months since that election. So typically, you know, getting out the vote. The thought is that would benefit the Democrats is that's the belief within the state of Georgia. There is some people who believe that that is going to be the case. You've definitely heard Democrats take on Ah positive and optimistic note. But honestly, I was with both candidates the other day and various campaigns and really the message for everyone is turnout. Turnout turnout, Everyone is asking their supporters to not only make sure that they come out and vote but to call their family. All their friends. I mean, this time e heard it. Yeah, kind of family. I get it. They all wanna turn out. What is the observation Use really in the rest. See on this? I mean, who's Who's winning the turnout battle right now. I mean, I think the three million votes does speak very well for Democrats. But you also have to remember that Republicans traditionally come out and extremely present anticipated here. Does President Trump have to come out and read him the riot act? I mean, Trump is coming down today and he came down in December Pence is the new restricts the state's Republicans are bringing out the big guns on this one. They're not taking anything for granted in terms of getting their base globalized. Emily, are we going to know a outcome? Definitive outcome tomorrow evening or is this could drag on for days and or longer? We're expecting this to drag on for at least a couple days. I mean, it's just a lot of people. It's a lot of absentee bells to be counted, hopefully won't take quite a long as the 10 days that we need to call the general election. But one thing that just sort of keep in mind that stuff comes in. We are expecting because more Republicans tend to vote in person. We're expecting initially for it. Looks like Republicans have a really good sized lead. And then as absentee bells are, colonel, we do expect the Democrats to start to close that gap. Are you gonna be done there? April 9th for Braves Philadelphia Phillies. I mean, is that what this is Opening day in Atlanta? I mean, if they'll send me I'll go. Don't think baseball game surveillance coverage team coverage with Emily Wilkens Phillies Braves in Atlanta, April 9th. Emily, thank you so much greatly appreciate it. This could be fastening Kevin. So really, of course, doing a lot of work here and David Westin leading our coverage as well or impale to your, you know, important point. It's just assume we have no clue where we are saying 10 PM tomorrow night, right? Know, And you know you just You wonder what's happened. I mean, this is a relatively It feels like a you know, a more common phenomena where we don't have Close to real time voting and reporting like we have in past elections, But there's so much absentee voting as it relates to the pandemic resulting from the pan pandemic. That kind of makes sense that you're not going to get community immediate feedback that it may take a day or two. But you just hope it doesn't end up in the courts have to deal with all of that. I saw briefing this weekend folks and my puny brain can't process where I saw it right now, Paul You know, we do like to cite. We do like aggregate. Everything out there Parts I A nice walkthrough of Gwinnett County. And how it has changed from the time of Newt Gingrich, right, and it's I don't know. I mean, I'm sure there's a Northeast equivalent. But I don't know it. I don't know any time. I mean, you think about the growth that we've seen over, you know, decades in the sun belt, and no sin typifies that better than Atlanta. You've nailed it, and that this isn't about static demographics. It's about Dynamic demographics off of population boom, Whether it's Phoenix. You know you don't like the dumbest thing I did, Paul this year. I completely had no understanding of the number of congressional district. In Arizona. As I'm living back before Barry Goldwater where there was like, you know, like one district or two, and now it's like 11. I mean, we just don't sit in and Christmas sense is coming. I saw some blur a couple weeks ago. You know, six week vacation where you know there's gonna be a whole census change There is and all I know about Atlanta, Tom is Why is every street named Peachtree When I traveled down there? I get so lost because I keep street stream Kappa Nu Northeast. I mean, what is that nailed it. I have never, ever not been lost in Atlanta. That is that is a truce thing where the.