20 Episode results for "Paddy Hirsch"
The American Dream And The Children Of Immigrants
"N. P. R. and everyone this indicator for planet money I'm Cardiff Garcia historically immigrants to the United States face a lot of professional barriers I once they arrive here a language barrier lack of contacts restrictions on where they can work and more and on the whole poor immigrants to the US typically have not caught up to the professional success of the people born here which sounds like it contradicts the American dream but what if we brought in the concept of the American dream to include the children of immigrants imigrants well then you get a different story a group of economic historians has just released a big new study of past cohorts of immigrants and their kids and it found that the children of immigrants into the past have actually shown more economic mobility they've climbed higher up the income ladder than the children of poor American born parents and it also found that the children more recent immigrants are assimilating into the economy just as well as those immigrants the past so today on the show we're going to speak with Dr Leah boost on one of the authors of this new working paper who reveals what its findings tell us about the American economy today that is coming up right after the break this message comes from NPR sponsor capital one Margaret Mayor leads the technology teams building. Iino the intelligent assistant from capital one. The goal is to answer customer questions to help customers we created Enos language model based on actual conversations Sion's our customers had stay tuned after the episode to learn more about how Margaret and her teams are training E-e-e-e-no to understand customers banking questions in all their variations percents doctor Labou Stan thanks so much for being on the podcast thank you for having me so in this new working paper you in your co-authors I studied three different cohorts of immigrants and their children and you studied how well they did in terms of their incomes over their lifetimes why don't you start by telling US talk about the three cohorts you studied our first cohort are immigrants who are already living in the US in eighteen eighty and our second cohort were immigrants who are living in the US in nineteen ten those groups are pretty different from each other actually immigrants that were in the US eighteen eighty were primarily from northern and western Europe so the UK Germany Ireland and so on by nineteen ten there was a much wider set of immigrant sending ending countries including countries from southern and Eastern Europe like Italy and Russia and Poland and then our third cohort are the immigrants that were more familiar with today today and those are immigrants from all over the world but especially from Mexico from Central America and from Asia Okay and what did you find even even though immigrants themselves are pretty slow in increasing their earnings their children are doing remarkably well so we focused on comparing the children of immigrants grants to the children of American born parents people who are in the lower middle class into the working poor and we're looking at households that during the parent your generation are earning around the same amount and then asked how are the kids doing thirty years later and all of the kids were on average doing a better than their their parents but the children of immigrant parents were doing notably better than the children the American parents yet that's fascinating were you surprised surprised by any of these findings by the way we were surprised by our findings in two different ways I we were surprised at how similar the success of with children of immigrants were between past and present and what we found was that immigrants today in the children of Immigrants Today are doing just as well as immigrants in the past at achieving social mobility and moving up the economic ladder and then the other thing that was surprising as we were able to break down down our data by the country of origin of the parents we thought well maybe there are some countries that are driving driving our results in are responsible for the fact that we're seeing such successful mobility it turns out that the mobility patterns are present they are for art immigrants from almost every sending country in the world yeah that's interesting too because it at least suggests that the countries of origin the places were immigrants came from don't really matter that much for how well their kids similarly right exactly if you look at historical politicians politicians and commentators they would point to the southern and Eastern European groups that were new at the time and say these immigrants are not as successful as immigrants from the past and and we should start to restrict immigration as a result and what we found is that that was not true that southern Eastern European kids from those backgrounds were just as successful full if not more successful at achieving social mobility and then the same thing is true for today we were able to look at forty seven different sending countries the Caribbean Ian Central America Africa Europe various parts of Asia and we found that with only three exceptions the children whose parents parents hailed from all of those forty seven countries where cheating more social mobility than the children of American born yet in your paper also includes a kind of who'd you've done section where you and your co author is trying to figure out just why the children of those earlier poor immigrants those immigrants from eighteen eighty and nineteen ten just why why they're children had more social mobility than the kids with American parents and a big part of the answer was place and specifically that the places within the US that the immigrants moved to were also the places with strong labor markets with a lot of opportunity jobs whereas the American born parents were not always willing to move to those places can you kind of just take us through that so there are certain states and then within state certain cities and towns that seem to be associated associated with higher social mobility for children are question was if we were to take an emigrant and an American born household located in exactly the same place may be right down the street with their children look different and the answer we came up with was no so all of the differences that we find in the paper between the children immigrants and the children of the American born can be traced back to where immigrant families choose to locate and a lot of that actually in the past was really a north-south Arthur south divide the country at the time was fifteen percent foreign born but the US south was around two percent foreign born so very few immigrants grants chose to go to the US south at the time and south was a place with low social mobility opportunities for kids so because immigrants avoided the south and even outside of the south were selecting areas that had opportunities for upward mobility for their kids that was the way that emigrants were able to help their kids move up the ladder yeah that is so intriguing because there is a modern conversation going on about the importance of place and what that means for jobs availability for how much money people make and opportunities for their kids and there's suggests that place is in fact a very powerful determinant for how successful people are and how successful their children are exactly exactly and it puts more of a role on place than it does on the sort of ineffable immigrants work ethic or immigrant culture so you will often hear about immigrants doing well because they try harder or because they care more about education or that they have a family based culture that supportive supportive we don't want to take away from those possibilities for the present because that's not something we were able to look at but at least for the past it seems like geography perfect is far more important than something intangible about being an immigrant yeah in terms of the modern conversation the idea is that as the economy evolves that a lot of jobs might be created in cities or certain urban centers and that if people are willing to move to those places that's that's were they'll have a lot of economic mobility but that Americans people who were born here understandably might have very close ties to where they're from to the places places where the jobs are being created or don't pay as well and so there's GonNa be some friction there that people might not move in immigrants don't have those ties ties to a US place by definition they're coming from another country it sort of goes to show the importance of place in that regard and it also kind of informs the current debate debate even though the data from the past well one thing that's special about immigrants as a people is that they have revealed themselves as willing to leave home and that's already eh quite a big step as you said I mean it's already taking risks and striking out on your own and so that might be the feature that allow immigrants grants to succeed don thanks so much for being on the show thank you. This episode of the indicator was produced by Jared Marcel. Our intern is not Louis our editors Paddy Hirsch indicator is production of NPR the following message comes from our sponsor capital one either my name is Margaret Maher I lead the technology teams that build are intelligent assistant the goal for is to answer customer questions to help customers so for me people really underestimate the power of understanding it's one thing to look at the words right and say oh I know exactly what that means but you know that meaning because a lot of experience that you've had so one of the things we've had had to do is train e-e-e-e-no a ton in order for it to get context and understanding in the banking domain in banking you know it's all very specific Pacific so when you're asking about your account information we just want to understand those meanings in terms of providing great customer service people can ask a lot of different questions in people will always surprise us they'll ask different things in different ways and we're really looking to make sure that has a broad understanding of different ways customers can ask questions so as much as hostile were accurate in returning the answer to the question the customer wants to meet Iino the intelligent assistant from capital one go capital one dot com slash iino.
Ready Your Wallet For Thanksgiving Dinner
"N. P. R. and John Newton. You are the chief economist of the American Farm Bureau Federation. Welcome back to the show. Thanks for having me second year in a row. Yeah I yeah no and John First of all. What does the American Farm Bureau Federation do exactly? We're the largest general farm organization in the United States. We have six million members farmers armor you represent farmers we represent farmers every state in America and Puerto Rico. Farm Bureau members. Okay and you're here with us today to talk about the cost of changing in cost Thanksgiving dinner but first of all man. I got a bone to pick with you all right. We started getting into an argument last year that we kind of left hanging. I was saying the Pumpkin Pie. Is the best Thanksgiving dinner dessert. And you were starting to make an argument for pecan Pie so my question for you is how can you be so wrong. Whoa of changed my views really the best desserts now? Macaroni and cheese. Yeah that's dessert. That's sweet it puts me right to bed. Yeah Fair enough to each their own anyways so John The reason we've got you back on the show. Is that the American Farm Bureau Federation every year ear. Does this kind of informal survey of all the ingredients that go into a Thanksgiving dinner for ten. And you calculate the cost and you look at how the cost of Thanksgiving giving dinner has changed over time so after the break John. You're gonNA tell our listeners. Exactly what the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is and Dan how it's been evolving this message comes from. NPR sponsor sponsor state farm. Why do you need state farm renter's insurance because it helps protected this stuff? Landlords don't like your furniture that gets drenched by broken pipe state state farm renter's insurance find agents or get a quote at State Farm Dot Com John Newton. Let's talk about this survey that you and the American Farm Farm Bureau Federation do every year. Okay first of all. How's IT conducted? Well we have volunteer shoppers around the country that go there local grocery stores and survey and evaluate. I wish the price of all the ingredients that you need for that classic Thanksgiving meal so they're checking prices of Turkey pumpkin mix milk whipping cream etc.. And we've been doing this for thirty four years. Yeah and and you send like what two three hundred volunteers out into different stores. All throughout the country right. Yeah all throughout the country. Think this here we are thirty. Eight states represented we had over two hundred and fifty volunteer shoppers from around the country. Go their local grocery store. See how much Thanksgiving causes here. And they're looking. I'm for the biggest bargain like the cheapest ingredient they can find. We don't ask them to do that. We ask them to make sure that they're looking at the prices that are not on promotion not on sale because you know as we get closer to Thanksgiving a lot of these prices of these items do change and we're not trying to see what the promotional prices we're trying to evaluate. What the real cost of this dinner is going to okay so I take it that a big Turkey is one of the ingredients in the survey? What are some of the other ingredients will Turkey's about forty percent of the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner? Thank most folks realize that some of the other stuff obviously You know for a family like yours. That prefers Pumpkin Pie. We've got we've got that on the menu we've got sweet. Potatoes stuffing whipping cream. Zeke Pula whipped cream on your pumpkin pie. CRANBERRIES peas green beans. Dinner Rolls All the fixings that you need for that good. I'm salivating already like right. This second I can't wait one week away. Yeah Ah Okay so sum it all up so you do this survey everybody goes out to see what the cost of these items is. And you tally it all up so dinner for Thanksgiving for ten people. How how much does it cost? It came in this year at forty eight dollars and ninety one cents. I was up one penny from last year and the price of the Turkey came in a dollar thirty pounds down about four percent. So a sixteen birds GonNa cost you twenty dollars and eighty cents this year again. That's below what we saw last year. Okay and I should know now that I think a lot of people are going to be surprised is it. It's only forty eight dollars and ninety one cents for a dinner for ten but again we're talking about shopping and all the different states we're not talking about the whole foods in Manhattan where it would be a lot more expensive than that. That's exactly right. I believe the you know the Turkeys in Manhattan probably come with Valet parking fancy like that. This is a national the average and and we have again. Thirty eight states represented a volunteer shoppers around the country. So this is a pretty good representation of what this meal costs across country okay and so basically the cost of the meal did not change from last year. I mean one cent more expensive basically the same price and we've seen food price. Inflation has been relatively flat that for a number of years. You know farmers receive about eight cents dollar but foreign prices been low really since two thousand fourteen. That's led to some stability in this price of the Thanksgiving giving dinner. Yeah and I gotTa Tell You I was looking at past surveys. That you've done. It looks like the cost of Thanksgiving dinner when you adjust for inflation has been pretty much the same for about three decades it stayed within a range of roughly forty seven to fifty four dollars. There hasn't been a tremendous amount on of fluctuations but of course in that time the amount of money that households earn has gone up and so this share of overall family incomes. It's gone to Thanksgiving Wchs giving dinner. has been kinda falling gently over the last few decades. In fact Americans are the leader in the percentage of their budget that they spend on food they spend less than six percent percent of their disposable income on food. You compare that to Nigeria where they spent over fifty percent of their income on food. We're we're very lucky in the United States. Yeah Okay so let's talk about individual items from Thanksgiving Dinner Looks like the cost of stuffing Pumpkin Pie. Mix and Turkey. Key does all went down right and one of the things to know about the Turkey You know the wholesale price of Turkey's actually GONNA this year but but but many retailers are gonNA use the Turkey to try drive foot traffic in the store so I think that's probably why we saw it actually go down in our survey in Turkey. You pressure probably going to get cheaper. As we approach the holiday some of the other items the the stuffing the you know you. You see those prices fluctuate throughout the year. The big item you know we added Ham and fifty percent people. Ham on Thanksgiving and ham prices actually went up Sixty three cents for a four pound ham this year in terms of the Turkey. You mentioned that some retailers were keeping the cost low to drive foot traffic. I mean do you think that the reason Turkey prices haven't gone up more even though the wholesale price has has gone up is that there's more competition between grocery stores not in DC. It's still three dollars a pound for Turkey near near my house but yeah I think that's. That's the case. Swimming Competition To get consumers into your stores across the country is very real and I think you know during the holiday season. It's so important to get consumers in the store again. Some some items did have their prices increase. For example dinner rolls sweet potatoes and milk. What's going on? There will only on the milk side. You know we've seen gene milk. Prices paid to farmers have gone up this year and and whole milk prices have followed that. So they're up compared to last year by about eighteen cents a gallon for gallon of whole milk Sweet potatoes we've seen supplies sweet potatoes Titan across the country a little bit this year. So that's GONNA lead to a thirty six cent increase in the price of three pounds for for sweet potatoes and really. That's the supply and demand dynamics of these agricultural markets workum John Newton chief economist. The American Farm Bureau Federation. Thanks for being on the show. Thank you this. Episode indicator was produced by Lena Sons. Gary fact check by Nadia Lewis. Our Editors Paddy Hirsch an indicator is a production of NPR. I want to resolve this pumpkin. Pie versus pecan Pie. Yeah let's resolve it. All right squabble. I don't want this to be hanging again for next year. All right. There's some sympathisers for you all right. We we did an additional survey and in one of the items Car of that people do add to their cell to celebrate the Thanksgiving meal. That's not included pecan. Pie is on the list that comes in a number five Importantly that's behind macaroni and cheese. which is number one? So in addition to the menu items that we we asked them about What are some other items that you typically serve on Thanksgiving in so number? One was macaroni. Number five was the pecan Pie. Okay but that's still way behind Pumpkin pie right It no Pumpkin pies traditional. It's the king thank you. I just wanted to say that just once.
The Economy Inside Your Head
"I looked up indicates or for you on the way here, which is always appreciate it. When our guests come up with an indicator for us that American adults are now spending eleven hours at the consuming media and media is the ultimate embassy real good at something that really, please, please within your hands. You make is triggered by something site, but really all of the benefit that you get all the enjoyment. You get as insights your minds that was a Communist League Caldwell these been working on developing a branch of economics known as cognitive economics, which she defines as the economics of what happens inside your head. So for example, think of all the different stimuli that might be competing for your attention in a given moment. Like, let's say you're at home and the television is on. But also your kid is asking for help doing homework, but also you had a plan to get some work done in your quiet den. Or maybe you're feeling sluggish and you want to exercise while how does your brain end up choosing? Which of these stimuli will. End up getting your attention, your concentration, your mental energy Lee wants to develop models to answer questions like this using research, not just from 'economics, but from psychology, and neuroscience and other disciplines and then to better understand how the decision making process inside our brains has consequences in the real world outside our brains. I'm Dan the indicator from planet money my conversation with Lee Caldwell about cognitive economics. Support for this podcast and the following message come from zoom when you can't be there in person zoom zoom is used by millions to connect face to face one easy platform for all your communication needs. Visit zoom online to set up your free account today. Meet happy with zoom. Support also comes from. Hello monday. A new podcast from Lincoln's aditorial team about the changing nature of work and how to get the most from Monday and your career find Hello Monday on apple podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. Trying to sort of connect cognitive economics to more traditional definition of economics. Which is the study of how people make choices in a world. Usually that means the physical world of scarce resources, and it seems like within cognitive economics. A lot of this has to do with attention, which is really scarce. Exactly. There are couple of other resources like energy. And concentration and focus. But attention is really the key. The key thing here we instead of seeing in a traditional economic environment you've certain amount of money and you want to optimize it by buying the best combination of products. You have a certain amount of time and attention in your minds and you want to optimize by spending on the things are most enjoyable to you the things that give you the the most reward, but like isn't part of behavioral economics explaining how so often I fall into a trap of not optimizing for those things, right? In other words, that you know, I'll be led to distraction or I will run out of energy, or I'll just be, you know, kind of lazy for a little while and watching TV, and so those other things won't be optimizing for anything that I really prize. I have just been led there either by circumstances sometimes deliberately or by like the flaws in my own head. You know, what I mean when we talk about optimization would we really mean, they're so up to my. Nation happens at a given moment. The you don't really you can't really Altemus across your whole life or even cross a whole day and say I'm gonna plant out every moment of the day to give myself the maximum return. What you do as you optimize right now. So right now, there may be something on your screen. There may be something in your pocket. Maybe something in your mind that you can think about and those small number of alternative stimuli will one of them will pull your attention more than the others. And so you're you're doing a very short term local to my station, and if you're lucky, and if you set up your life in the right way, or if you train yourself in the right way than the things that draw your attention moment to moment will be consistent with the things that you would want to spend your time on long-term. But sometimes they're not that that seems like another analogy we can draw to like the economy in the physical world, which is when we talk about competition, we usually talk about companies competing. With each other or entrepreneurs competing with each other to come up with product in our minds, it's different stimuli competing for those scarce resources of tension, and energy and concentration and all that's going on in our heads. We don't conscious of it. But it ends up directing a lot of where those resources and up going. Yeah. Yeah. I think that where the the research in cognitive economics meek goal as in the same way. As in the physically Konomi, we have developed understanding of win that competition between companies or competition between people has positive effects for the whole economy. And I think we will develop these kind of theories and cognitive economics as well to understand. What are the conditions? We should set for themselves to make sure that the moment by moment. Competition of stimulus ends up making us happy in the long run shirt. There's another concept that I keep thinking about which is delayed gratification that. It seems like that would play some kind of a prominent role in understanding cognitive 'economics and sort of how we manage short-term has long-term goals. If by definition in a given moment or focused on a short term goal. So how do we align? The short term and the long term when the long term goal doesn't have appealing short-term stimuli. You know what I mean? Yeah. Greek question because this was actually part of my inspiration for getting into cognitive economics or getting into the psychology behind. It was understanding exactly that trade off. How are we capable of acting on behalf of future self when our future self, well doesn't exist? You yourself control me and tell me put away some money for my retirement or don't eat donuts because you'll regret later and. The mechanism through which happens is essentially some mental simulation. So I am able to simulate in my mind. Now, what my future self might feel like and by doing that, I can gain an EMMY or I can gain a version of the reward that my future self will experience of my future self will be happy than I will be happy. No by being able to imagine the future self and this actually maps across to empathy with other people as well. So if I imagine you're feeling imagine how my family members feeling they're happy than I will be happy to. So we have a way through this through mental simulation of both delaying our own gratification. But also cooperating with other people in society. Okay. Now that we have some understanding of cognitive economics is when it tries to do what do you think or some of the potential applications to our lives? What do we? Would you investigating within the realm of cognitive economics that you think could have an impact like what are some examples? So like a lot of economics. You have applications that are for the individual and applications that are for companies and businesses companies and businesses can use. This research for to inform their advertising, if you are one of those companies that wants to influence someone's preferences and influence how they won't spend their time. They in designing your marketing designing the user interface for your products to maximize how you capture people's attention as as important application. Conversely as an individual you might wanna fight against them. So by understanding, how your attention shapes and understanding how you can train yourself to focus your attention onto the areas that are most valuable to you not most valuable to Facebook or HBO, then you you may end up better off on your terms. So there's there's developing tools for individuals. There's -veloping marketing strategies for businesses, and then even out the public policy and the governmental level there's been lots of talk in the last decade or so about things like gross national happiness. The idea that governments might not just want off to mice the GDP levels in economy, but my actually want to and legitimately trying to help people to be happier. Their populations to to be to have greater well-being. And so I think that will be an important area in the future. There are there are valid political questions about do we want our governor. Getting involved in those questions, but fundamentally governments do try to me because happy just usually trying to through economic growth, and and other kind of the tea real policy levers, so it's inevitable that they're going to try to do it through psychologically was to. This episode of the indicator was produced by Dr is Ravi on an edited by paddy Hirsch, our interns will Rueben and the indicator is a production of NPR.
Is Everything Awesome In The Economy?
"Hey, one it is Stacey and Cardiff the Oxford English. Dictionary defines word do monger as chiefly appreciative a person who predicts disaster or misfortune case anyone's curious about how we spend our time here. Of course, the more informal urban dictionary has a different definition. It defines do monger as quote, possibly the most annoying kinds of people that one can think of oh do mongers they're already mongering doom. And now, they're annoying on a very extreme scale. A Beasley do mongers. You know, they're people who are always portending terrible things seen the worst and everything. Everything's going down the tubes. Things are getting worse. You know, the apocalypse it's on its way. We don't want to be that. No. We don't wanna be annoying. We don't want to be du mongers. At least. Has a strong do monger section. It hard not to be an do monger. Especially in the first three months of this year. When some important indicators about the us economy really were disappointing especially those indicators about people's jobs about how much money they spend. And also about how the economy and the rest of the world was doing, and you know, communists, were not really saying that we were gonna go into recession or anything like that. But you know, the chances of going into a recession or things starting to slow down did seem to be climbing. But but in the last month economic indicators have improved they've have quite improved to the point where we can say that everything, you know, is awesome. Like in the LEGO song in the Legos on. You can always play the song. But I think we can say that everything is not not awesome, right? Very rely overly optimistic, but we're also mixed me nervous today on the indicator from planet money. We are going to share three trends that are making us feel not not awesome about the economy so far this year. And you know, so that you cannot accuse us of being do mongers earliest you can't accuse me into another story. Open to the accusation. Everything is cool. This message comes from NPR sponsors snowflake. The only data warehouse built for the cloud unlock. Deep data insights with the instantly scalable, cloud built data warehouse. Start your journey towards data driven decision. Making at snowflake dot com slash NPR. Support also comes from NPR sponsor linked in jobs when it's time to hire for your small business. You wanna find the right person for the job Lincoln jobs can help learn more at Lincoln dot com slash indicator. Terms and conditions apply. Okay. Three feel good issue indicators to lighten the mood. Yeah. There we go. There we go. There's the Cardiff gercy. I know exactly I up initial jobless claims unemployed workers are of course, eligible for unemployment insurance benefits, and when unemployed worker I files for those benefits. It's called an initial jobless claims the Labor Department keeps track of how many initial claims are made from week to week. And in a strong economy, you'd expect the number of initial jobless claims to be falling because a lot of jobs are available than fewer people should be filing for unemployment benefits. But in the last few months of twenty eighteen up until February of this year, the number of initial jobless claims had actually been going up, and we were concerned because when jobless claims are going up, it means that there are some parts of the labor market where people are struggling to find jobs. So they're filing for unemployment, but that is not happening anymore. No, it isn't not anymore. Initial jobless claims have been plummeting since February. Everything is not not awesome. Oh, that's going to be. According to the most recent update there have been two hundred and one thousand two hundred and fifty initial jobless claims per week in roughly the past month that is the lowest level in almost fifty years, and it is also today's first planet money, indicator and most importantly, it's a sign the labor market is still in very good shape. Okay. Reason number two that the economy's not not awesome. Our next feel good ish. Indicator of the one point six percent retail sales were one point six percent higher in March than they were in February. And that was a strong number stronger than analysts had even expected and retail sales. Are basically what they sound like, you know, it's things that we buy from stores or online or at dealerships like cars and furniture and clothes and all that kind of thing. Interestingly enough also includes bar tabs. Yes. Cardiff interesting that you point this out. True, though, retail sales numbers also include what people spend at bars and restaurants under category called food services and drinking places snappy little name bars, and you know, in a growing economy retail sales should also be growing from month to month and from year to year because as the economy grows, people get jobs and make more money, and so they can buy more stuff more retail goods. But from last July all the way up until February of this year, retail sales were basically flat, and it really still is not clear what was going on. Because during most of those months wages were still growing at an increasing pace. People were getting bigger raises at work. They just were not spending more on retail goods. And the worry was that if that trend had continued or even if it had gotten worse if people had started spending even less money than it could hurt the economy 'cause remember if people are not spending money that eventually companies will make less stuff to sell which in turn means it companies don't need as many workers. And they might even start laying off those workers, but things changed in March when retail sales finally started growing again, and even though we have only one month of growth that we are looking at right now at least, you know, the stopped the trend of flat retail sales, and it could be a sign that maybe just maybe Americans are ready to go shopping, again, not not awesome by ever heard would make things even more not not exactly losing track of the double negative. Finally, here's the third indicator that suggests things aren't quite as bad as people had feared earlier this year. Three point three percent. That is how much the global economy is expected to grow this year. According to the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund. Now that is a slower pace of growth than last year. But we were still relieved because given just how much the global economy was slowing at the end of last year, the estimates for this year could have been even worse than they ended up being instead the IMF economists now say that they actually expect the global economy to improve in the second half of the year and into next year. And the reason is that policymakers in a lot of different countries like the central banks and the politicians have been responding to the global slowdown by taking steps to keep their economy stimulated. And this matters global economic growth does matter for the US economy when the rest of the world has a strong economy. It means that people abroad will buy more products made by American companies. And those American companies can then better afford to keep hiring American workers to make those products. So there it is three indicators that the us economy is in less danger of falling into a recession than people thought just a couple of months ago. She likes to say three not not awesome indicators, and in fact in the past couple of months, economists and other forecasters have raised their estimates for how fast the US economy is now growing, and we should say Cardiff is a nod to you know, all the me. Host. There are still a few parts of the economy. The do not look, so great some not awesome parts of the economy. And maybe the best example here is the housing market, which has been sluggish for more than a year now. But guess what you found out just yesterday that in March people bought new houses at the fastest pace of any month since November of two thousand seventeen not not awesome. So there you go card if not not awesome yet, again, even I was breathing a sigh of relief on that number. So yeah, it's true. That just because the odds of recession of gone down does not mean that everything's awesome. But it also does mean in a nod to my co host that everything is not catastrophic either. And that folks is that as optimistic as I and round here. It's economics optimism is just not. This episode was produced by are very optimistic producer could stand the guy Ardo and edited by paddy Hirsch, our fact, checker is will Ruben and the indicator is a production of. Everything is. Also, just attack something on here. Quick footnote for the wonky types out there, just so we don't get emailed about this. Because I know you're firing up your laptops, right now. Okay. For the initial not not. The initial jobless claims we're using the four week moving average. And even though it's true that initial weekly claims are at their lowest point in about fifty years. It is also the case that the requirements to qualify for employment insurance benefits have changed. So the comparison across all fifty those years is not perfect. If you want more from the planet money universe. You should subscribe to our newsletter. It's fun. It's free. It goes in your Email every week to subscribe, you can go to NPR dot org slash planet money newsletter. One word that's NPR dot org slash planet money newsletter.
Oil Storage Wars
"N. P. R.. Has Been on a wild ride in the last few months. West Texas crude start off the year costing about sixty dollars a barrel, then corona virus head, and the oil industry got hammered yet people were not driving or flying, and so demand for gas was way down by April. The price of oil had dropped to fifteen dollars a barrel, and then in late April something crazy happened. We begin with an historic collapsed in energy prices, oil falling below zero dollars a barrel for the first time. LA- hit an all-time low on Monday plunged into negative territory. The price settled at get this negative. Thirty seven dollars per barrel negative thirty seven dollars a barrel. It's kind of mind blowing. How can something be worth negative money? Especially something that we use every day that makes our cars and airplanes go. That makes plastic bottles and fleece jackets and air conditioners refrigerators. How could that be worth nothing? The reason was storage. This is indicated from planet money. I'm Cardiff Garcia. And I'm Stacey van man today on the show, the oil storage boom as demand for oil fell demand for oil storage has gone crazy and right now it's having a huge domino effect on the industry. Planet? Money, talk it's economics but relatable. What was it originally planet money to Talk Radio for your is? Short. That's the best one. As Cova nineteen re tactic on the US economy. Nobody wanted to buy oil oil companies had pumped all of this oil out of the ground, and they couldn't sell it. They had all this extra oil on their hands and oil as a hazardous substance. You have to take care of it and store it properly once you've pumped it out of the ground in April nobody could sell oil and everybody needed to store it. David bomb is an oil analyst with Cowan an investment bank. It's not something that you can just keep sitting around like in someone's backyard. Companies, they were looking out and basically saying hey, in the month. I'm not sure that I'm GonNa have placed the put this. And I think there was just a fear that we would run out of storage space. Oil is normally stored in these giant tanks tanks that hold more than half a million barrels of oil each, but all those tanks they started filling up, and so the people who owned the tanks started raising their prices prices to store oil doubled, tripled wind up by six hundred percent in some cases, so for one day of oil storage, instead of paying one hundred fifty thousand dollars a day, which is usually what it costs to store. Oil Oil companies were paying practically a million dollars per tank per day to store. Their oil would be like. If all of a sudden, your Internet, though is like seven hundred dollars a month, and you're like wait like that was just something I thought was gonna stay like seventy dollars a month now seven hundred. At the same time profit through drying up and debt collectors were knocking an oil companies literally could not afford to have oil. They could not afford to store it, but they couldn't sell it either, so they started getting creative. Some companies like has bought enormous oil tankers, and filled them to the brim with oil and push them out to see other companies just went bankrupt. They couldn't their oil and they couldn't. Couldn't afford to store it, but of course this was an opportunity to. If you could store oil, you could make a lot of money and people did start seeing opportunities, people like Sean Lovely President of well-water Solutions Rentals, or headquartered actually of Evansville Wyoming right in the middle of Wyoming. Shawn's company builds big storage tanks for water. You know. Have you seen those above ground swimming pools, just I mean. Take that out and make it two hundred foot, and and then make the sidewalls twelve feet. That's that's what it is. Sean the price of oil storage, going crazy and thought wait. We could start oil in our water tanks, and we can charge a lot for that. Sean realized he could make forty thousand dollars a month storing oil in one of his tanks, and still be really competitive pricewise, so he plays a couple of ads online thought to get a few calls boy, it was it was crazy there at the beginning him Outta, calls and thanks. It was absolutely bonkers just. Just, getting flooded with calls, and we had some people saying. We want one hundred tanks like Dang. All kinds of companies jumped into the oil storage business companies that normally store wine laundry detergent shampoo. They were all jumping into oil storage, and this is how the free market is supposed to work right when there's big demand for something, the price of that thing goes up and when the price gets really high, people get excited and think hey I should get into that business, and so before you know it, the supply increases and eventually there's not a shortage anymore, so the price goes down. Yup Supply and demand economics went one yup, and in fact, oil analyst David Dukla bound thinks that is going to happen here. The oil storage boom, not long for this world. I don't know what kind of jeans you wear, but whatever your jeans company is like making facemasks like they're probably stopping do that now. You know okay, so it like this sort of Jerry rigged. Oil Storage is like the face masks of the oil industry. Yeah! The ones that like a barbecue at your house. No, Hey, you should, you should let people store oil. You know like Oh. Yeah, that's all about that. Divas as soon as the economy gets going again and demand for oil goes up, companies will not want to store their oil. They will want to sell it and make money off of it, so demand for storage will go down, and the price of storage will go down. In fact, we're already seeing that. A cities across the US started to reopen oil prices started rising again and demand for storage started to flag Sean lovelace of well-water. Solutions, he noticed. Where we were getting probably. Three four or five big calls a day. I mean like because I mean. We might get one a week now. so yeah, it's It's died down quite a bit with the oil prices hopping back up and that could continue in a big way. There's even been speculation that oil prices could spike as countries reopen, and the demand for oil goes back up. Because with so many oil wells switched off and so many oil companies going out of business, there might end up being less oil. Oil available than there usually is so if oil demand does come roaring back, there could be a shortage of oil available, and that would end up pushing the oil price backup still David Dekel bound. The oil analyst does not see that happening anytime soon. He does not think the US economy or the global economy will bounce back. He thinks it will probably be more of a shuttle. If you've seen the airlines commenting that likes they think. Air travel is going to get back to normal two thousand, twenty five. That's five years now, and even when the economy does recover David does not think oil will ever be the powerhouse industry that it used to be. Because for example there's the rise of alternative energy and also more fuel-efficient vehicles and move away from plastic and so far this week. Oil prices have been edging down on news that Corona. Virus cases are rising in the US, and if that keeps happening, it could just mean that the US economy will be growing really slowly for awhile, which could further mean oil prices? Themselves will also stay low for a long time, and that might mean that companies could need more storage soon. And, if that's the case, Sean lovelace water solutions will be ready until then. He says he's just going to focus on his regular business on storing water in his big above ground tanks, they actually store a lot of water sixty thousand gallons, which is about the size of six backyard swimming pools. Yeah, no, we can. Now we could have a big party with some big freshwater tank somewhere if we wanted to big big pools. Pool Parties John's. Yeah. Be there. Bring your mask. Bring bring your jugs. If you want to get into this oil storage, business yourself, you know. By the way don't do that in all serious that. Don't don't do that. This episode of the indicator was produced by Camille. Peterson and Brittany. Cronin the indicator is edited by Paddy Hirsch and is a production of NPR. Whenever you face a choice. It helps to think like an economist and this week on planet. Lenny summer school will start off our course. Economics with ink workout for your brain how to decide what's something truly costs? Planet money from NPR.
Brexit: It's Complicated
"N. p. r. brexit great britain's exit from the european union brits voted to do this back in two thousand sixteen and since then brexit has been nadia lewis our editor is paddy hirsch the indicator is a production of n._p._r. which had been set for halloween prime minister boris johnson was not happy about the delay he's been pledging to get brexit done brexit of course has enormous economic implications the european union essentially functioned as one country with one set of immigration laws trade deals and rules for business brexit changes all that it will probably won't different things that are hard line brexit is who would just be delighted to have the most catastrophic visit zoom online to set up your free account today meet happy with zoom support also comes from american express say yes from zoom zoom is used by millions to connect face to face through a single app for videoconferencing phone calls group chat webinars and conference rooms payment flexibility and card choices including ones with no annual fee don't do business without it rates fees apply learn more at american express dot com calms of brexit the UK parliament has already rejected a number of brexit plans and tomorrow they'll vote on the latest put forward by prime minister boris johnson the vote issue oskoui cautionary tales in economist oh yeah that well it's relevant to our purposes and so indefinitely complicated dan show what's going on what's at stake and what is the economic impact of all the delays tom slash no annual fee my name is tim harford i am a columnist at the financial times and the presenter of a new keeping up to be very tight and brexit could end up back at square one this is the indicator from planet money i'm stacey manic smith brexit start let's start with i mean it seemed like this might be there've been lots and lots and lots of delays and it seemed like this vote i mean boris johnson's hole exit there was a big vote and what happened yeah well yeah we still asking ourselves that question i mean where do you want and disruptive exit possible although they don't seem to think it would be catastrophic and disruptive but it it clearly obviously would there were people who the UK has to negotiate hundreds of trade deals and international business deals and immigration rules probably because the UK and the you still have to agree to the he said i was dead body he said he would rather die in a ditch than send a letter to the european commission asking for a delay he has sent a letter to the european commission asking for thing the prime minister boris johnson's whole saying was no more delays we're going to do this thing rip the band aid off brexit's going to happen i think he's over his dead body would there be another delay yes and no border checks for goods and the single market is more about and common standards for services like banking media insurance and support for this podcast and the following message tips in place with with countries and allow maybe some of the businesses that are kind of operating across countries to continue absolutely i mean yeah northern ireland is part of the united kingdom but there are communities in northern ireland who would rather it was part of the irish republic and up until recently i mean people were people killed quite a long and not just the border but and and and free movement of people and so there were proposals to stay in the european customs union their proposals to stay in the european single market ice oh i mean that's the first time the prime minister said something that turned out not to be true i mean just a lot of different people their proposals to stay in both proposals to leave both just to complicate all of this it also interact with the situation in in northern ireland would like have very very soft brexit because that would respect the will of the people would not be economically damaging there are people who are some of the trade relations who moving parts to that there's a customs union as the single market they sound like the same thing but the customs union is is more about fiction list trade in goods in union and the republic of island is in the european union a now that that nice convenient situation that's going away and so these negotiations between the UK and the european union have been heavily influenced by the question of what's going to happen on the border between ordinary citizens and businesses you do at some stage wants to know what is likely to happen so delaying is that if you don't like what's been agreed you might be able to get something that you prefer so a lot of this strategic but purely from the point of view of well well very much depends on your point of view i think clearly the the advantage but recently there's been a a piece in the piece has been based on the fact that well look the UK's in the cons of the extensions like what are the pros of continuing to kind of extend that to continue to delay bombs in though bonds in london that would i there was a bomb threat mild oxford college when i was there bombs in manchester bombs in birmingham people got killed okay you're thinking oh i want to make some decision i want to make some investments maybe build a factory and as i contemplate my decision if an island in the republic of ireland that that's where we are why do you think the delays keep happening it's been like three years it's been a long time move to the next stage of the negotiations we agree the legal basis for leaving the u. but then we have to negotiate the future trade relationship so there's all this it's pounded the timetable was never terribly realistic i mean even even if we agree deal now it's not that anything's going to be done we all kinds of decisions that people make from booking holidays to studying for degree to building factory and the trouble with the the brexit v note we originally voted in june twenty sixteen and of course there was uncertainty about what the vote would be then once we had the vote there was uncertainty about can emotional thing for you well i'm trying not to be emotional because people are very very emotional about this it's very polarized basically evolved into the longest slowest most confusing break-up in history over the weekend parliament voted to request to delay the brexit deadline again it certainly does slow down economic activity it does depress investment and if you look for example at investment in the british economy relative to investment the the bitterness and the distrust the whole argument has brought yeah well tim thank you so much for would happen next there was uncertainty about who was going to be the next prime minister and it just goes on and on and on meanwhile lots of people who could spend in the american economy in the german economy and it's it's not a pretty picture no one's investing everyone is just waiting waiting waiting this i mean my wife is a portrait photographer and she has a new project of trying to get people who disagree with each other to hog on camera i think to myself you know it would be better to wait why would i commit not decision when i'm going to no more in due course and that's true for all decisions while they wait to find out more do spending decisions while they wait to find out more so so that's the theory of it but there's lots of good empirical evidence as well so far she has not managed to get any levers and remains to hug each other at all it's got really personal and that's and that is it's very worrying because in the end i think this deal is is great for the country but what is more damaging than any particular deal is he's never gonna stop so so yeah that's been slightly frustrating attempts yeah what are the economic like i would love to look at the pros and brexit i appreciate it it's it's delight and you know i'll i'll be back tomorrow is she liked to explain what's happened next because it's it's a fast moving story you any good in the opposing
"N. P. R.. Everyone Stacey in Cardiff here is indicated from planet money and today's episode is garbage guarded. Wait No, hang on a second. That's not where. You have to there. You're supposed to pretend like you don't know it's garbage. Misread conclusions. Yeah, no, it says here. This episode is actually about garbage partly, so it's a key phrase there about garbage. Yes, it is and part of the reason for that is that one of our wonderful listeners asked us about garbage? That is right. It is time for another episode where we answer your questions. Yeah, and let's get right to it. Here is the garbage question from Listener Michaela in West Virginia, I have a trashy question. Now that we're all staying at home working from home, eating at home more. How is this affecting the distribution of waste and how our waste management companies handling it I? Love this question. Michaela! I've actually been thinking about this a lot, because not only are a lot more people at home throughout the day, but also a lot of restaurants and bars are still closed, so people are eating at home a lot more as well, and all of that means that people are now throwing out a lot more trash at home in their residential neighborhoods. Yeah, and just how much more trash is being thrown out of homes because of krona virus kind of depends on where you live but to. To Take Philadelphia's and example, the volume of residential trash during March April of this year was about twenty five percent higher than it was. During March and April of last year and estimates for other parts of the country have varied, they range from five percent higher all the way to forty percent higher, but whatever the case it's a lot trash from households is usually collected either by local sanitation departments, or by privately run waste management companies, and those guys are just in demand like crazy right now. They're really overwhelmed even to the point where other services like recycling pickup and street cleaning have been cut back in some places, because there is just so much trash pickup from homes. Yeah in the trend goes in exactly the opposite direction for trash that gets collected from commercial buildings from offices that is way down and these waste management companies that handle commercial trash are struggling just like other parts of the economy demand for their services has fallen because so many of their customers have closed their doors. Some of these waste management companies have even furloughed workers, and they are running fewer routes, but Cardiff I have a question about our garbage question, which is this yet? WHAT ABOUT OVERALL GARBAGE? If you combine the waste from residential homes and businesses is our overall trash upper down. I would assume. Assume that it would be down because so many businesses are closed But what is the verdict on over? Always? Yeah, that's definitely possible. I gotta be honest. I looked all over the place for a nationwide estimate of just overall trash accumulation trash volumes since corona virus started I could not find. One might not exist just yet, but if any of our listeners have seen such an estimate, then by all means feel free to send it to us at indicator at NPR dot org, and there is a little side note on our garbage story by the way a workers who collect trash there about one. Twenty thousand of them throughout the country, they are not just categorized as essential workers workers who have kept doing their jobs throughout the pandemic. This is also really dangerous work, so we wanted to give them a little shoutout. Little Shoutout, yeah! According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the share of people who die on the job while collecting trash or recyclable material is the fifth highest share of any occupation in the country and the most common reason for this vehicle accidents, but the work itself is also physically taxing workers potentially. Potentially expose themselves to chemicals and toxins every single day, and now of course krona virus has added a new element of danger to trash collection. Because the trash they're picking up could have been handled by someone who has covid nineteen, so a lot of the workers have to take these extra precautions like wearing an extra pair of gloves or having their trucks disinfected things like that and thanks for that question Michaela, we really appreciate it, and after a quick break station, I will take two more listener questions about different topics. Support for NPR and the following message come from Zen desk, making customer support software designed for speed and agility, now offering a six month complimentary remote support bundle that comes with everything you need to stay connected with your customers. Go Zen desk dot com slash indicator. Okay next listener question comes from rob in Brooklyn New York on Social Media I've been seen a great push. Encouraging people to support black businesses I found out that there's an index fund that is specifically composed of minority owned businesses. How does a fund of minority owned businesses work? Most importantly could investing in a fund like this actually be a way to support black companies. Thanks for that rob and yeah, there are two parts to this question one is. How does this fund work and then second? Is it a good way to invest in black owned businesses, so we'll take those questions in order so I. The fund that Rob is referring to is called the impact shares nwpp minority empowerment fund, but we'll just refer to it here as the fund. That's the only fund we're talking about the fund and here's how the fund works. The Fund says that it will invest in companies that have quote, strong, racial and ethnic diversity policies in place and quote. But, of course I, it has to identify those companies, so the fund worked with the N. W. C. P.. The civil rights organization to come up with a list of criteria that could be used to judge whether a company has a good diversity policy in place in those criteria can include things like the quality of companies, anti-discrimination policies or its efforts to diversify its own workforce, its employees and there are ten criteria in all, and if a company scores high enough on these criteria, then it gets placed into an index. The fund does. Is it invest a little money in all the companies that make it into? Into the index and it this by purchasing shares of those companies in stock market, which means that if you invest in the fund itself, which is what rob is asking about. You're buying shares of fund that itself own shares of a bunch of other companies. It's kind of like a sampler platter of stocks, and as for which companies to fund is invested in. They are mostly big companies big enough to trade on the stock market, so for example the companies that the fund has the most money invested in our Amazon, Microsoft and Apple, but rob about investing directly in black owned businesses, and that is just. Different, from what this actually does, which is to put money into companies that meet certain criteria for policies on racial and ethnic diversity? Yeah, that's right, and so basically we looked around and there just seems to be no shortcut that we could find for investing directly in black owned businesses, most of which are not these huge companies that trade on the Stock Exchange so you have to. To try to find those businesses and weigh the risks of investing in them about the possible rewards, just like other investments but all that said there are some very useful lists online directories that can help discover black owned businesses. These are on sites like a block Wall Street DOT COM and we'll post them. Other links in today's show notes at NPR DOT Org. Slash money. Our final question comes from Kathy in Florida. The unemployment rate doesn't measure how much the GIG economy contracts is their way to measure that so cathy. The short answer is no. We do not know exactly how much the GIG economy has either grown or contracted because of corona virus mainly because the GIG economy, itself is really hard to measure yet. Most people think of Gig work as uber drivers or someone who delivers you groceries that you ordered on Insta- card. Card, the APP or the handyman that you found on task. Grab it big GIG. Work can actually be any kind of work that people do that is not done as part of formal employment for business. It can be someone who makes homemade baskets and sells them. Online is a hobby or can be graphic designers who freelance by making web pages as their main job, though we should note that only about one out of five people who do Gig work in. In the US, do it as their main source of income, but the point is that some of the GIG economy could be seeing more demand like food delivery drivers while other parts are seeing less demand, just because overall economic activity has fallen so much. Here is what we do know now roughly fourteen million gig workers are claiming unemployment insurance benefits because their work has been affected by corona virus in some way in fact more than two out of every five. Five people who are now claiming unemployment benefits are gig workers. Now that so many other people have lost their jobs non gig workers, a lot of these newly unemployed workers are themselves trying to Gig work to make a little money, and this means that people who were doing gig work before the pandemic started now have more competition, so he might not get paid as much as they were getting paid before. A lot of gay workers just really are struggling. Thank you Michaela and Cathy for your questions, and of course. If you have a question for us, we would love to hear it. You can email us a voice memo that is indicator at NPR. Dot Org and we might address it in a future episode. This episode of the indicator was produced by Camille, Peterson fact checked by Britney Cronin. The indicator is edited by Paddy Hirsch and is a production of NPR.
The Business Of Police Surveillance
"N. P. R.. To WanNA, petty can remember exactly how the green light project started in Detroit it started with about eight or nine flashing green light cameras They were at gas station and you know there were staying open late in order to deter crime. The idea was to put these cameras in place in high crime or risky areas speech well in the course of three years. We now have over seven hundred and they are now in. Places Medical Centers Grocery Stores Community thinners low income housing some religious institution. Twenty is with the Detroit. Community Technology Project, and she says that a lot of locals really liked the cameras. The cameras made them feel safer. But to WANNA was worried about how the cameras were being used in the last few months, some of our fears were realized well. covid nineteen thousands of tickets have been issued to residents using project greenlight surveillance to target for not social distancing. The citations given out for not social distancing came with a fine of a thousand dollars and twenty points out that the median income in Detroit is about twenty nine thousand dollars, and not social distancing isn't actually a crime and one is worried that this kind of thing it's just the beginning companies and police. Departments have been partnering up to Create Surveillance. Systems over the US Microsoft and Amazon. They've been giants in the field along with dozens of smaller. Smaller companies studies show that surveillance cameras can be really effective at reducing crime. A study from the Urban Institute founded in Baltimore Crime Drops significantly and stayed down after the city invested in hundreds of cameras, but privacy advocates are worried about how the technologies being used a lot of police departments are using the cameras in conjunction with facial recognition technology and using that to monitor people who participate in protests or don't social distance and track them around city. This week calls for reform had been coming fast and furious, and actually they've been coming from the companies that developed a lot of technology IBM publicly announced this week that it is getting out of the facial recognition business, the company CEO expressed worries about how the technology was being used for quote, mass surveillance, racial profiling, and a violation of basic human rights and freedoms. Microsoft and Amazon followed suit also announcing that they were not gonNa make their software available to police. This is the indicator from planet. Money I'm Stacey Vanik Smith I'm Cardiff Garcia to down the show. Police surveillance police departments have been partnering with Tech Companies For years on surveillance and facial recognition technology. It's big business and very lucrative for the companies. But ironically enough some of those very same companies are now the ones who were calling for reform and oversight. Has A TIKTOK she remake one for like really really the parents who don't understand tiktok passed economics tiktok it's the platform. Your kids do not want you to be on the money to talk. No seriously. TIKTOK! The surveillance partnership between tech companies and police departments goes back years here in New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg worked with Microsoft to develop a network of cameras and license plate readers, the track people and cars all over the city, and they developed this pretty interesting business. As well on held is a lawyer. At the Brennan, Center for Justice and it was developed in partnership between the city of New York and Microsoft and part of that agreement. Is that anytime? That Microsoft sells that technology to another city. New York is a cut of those prophets. Microsoft just announced it will stop selling facial recognition software to police, and the company's been calling for Federal Regulation on the technology for years. But on those says there are plenty of companies still in the business and police departments are often in a budget crunch in creating surveillance systems with big companies has proven to be a cost effective way to reduce crime locate abducted children, and even crackdown on human trafficking, but the tracking technology is being used for a lot of other things as well, and it is incredibly widespread a report from Georgetown's law school a few years ago found that photos of half of us. Adults were in a database. That police could search using facial recognition. Also as part of these partnerships, police departments will sometimes handover citizens data to companies. That was the case with IBM now. IBM is now getting out of the business, but years ago, got a bunch of free surveillance data from the NYPD. NYPD helped develop IBM's video analytic system by giving the company access to its surveillance footage. So if you're a New Yorker who ride the subway, footage of your ride may have been used to train IBM's video analytic services, which until recently had a feature that said it could identify people based on their skin, tone or hair-color. On houses right now we're in the midst of a deadly pandemic national protests, looting and shutdown cities, so police departments can make a strong case for extraordinary tracking measures, things like drones and infrared cameras. The problem is is on how those tracking measures are not likely to go away when the extraordinary circumstances do. So we know from for example. The Post nine eleven world that a lot of temporary measures that were set up to respond to the terrorist attacks. Resulted in technologies that lasted for much longer than that are still in being used today. Some cities have put bands in place on the use of facial recognition technology. These cities include Cambridge Massachusetts and San. Francisco Boston is considering a ban, but those are wealthy cities, and on how worries that many low income communities and many communities of color just won't put those initiatives in place, and so the people living in those cities will just have less privacy as a result, and they'll be more at risk of being tracked, and maybe also of wrongful conviction yet facial recognition technology itself is notoriously inaccurate especially when it comes to identifying minorities, and that could lead to a lot of wrongful tracking and arrests especially since the technology has gotten so widespread Amazon one of the giants in space. Space reportedly recently made a pitch to ice immigrations and Customs Enforcement. Many big investors did try to pressure the company out of that business, but it didn't work. In fact, Amazon has said that it's not entirely sure how many police departments or even using it or we're using it. Amazon just said that it is now banning police departments from using its facial recognition technology for a year back in Detroit Towanda petty says she is glad to see big companies backing away from this business, and she is hoping to shut off of cameras that have gone up in her city as part of Detroit's greenlight project. Twenty says people feeling like they're being watched and tracked. It's just bad for community. Everything that he's awesome. Opportunity to revisit our priorities as city government, our city government's priorities and pull back on this heavy-handed reactionary way of dealing with quality of life crime and start to invest in the neighborhoods more. To look out for one another to see each other to not watch and track and report on each other. Twenty says the technology is expensive Detroit he spent millions of dollars on these cameras. She's hoping this could all open up a dialogue about the cameras and about other ways that communities could spend that money so that the money would help deter crime and keep president. This episode of the indicator was produced by Camille. Peterson back checked by bringing Cronin. The indicator is edited by Paddy Hirsch and is a production of NPR.
The Great Potato Giveaway
"N. P. R. Ryan Cranny runs cranny farms in Oakley. I'd how it's a little town in southern Idaho about eight hundred people. We've been here in. This valley are farm on the same land for one hundred and thirteen years. Read their office window. You can look out and see the mountains on both sides and big old wide open. Fields Ryan grows russet potatoes. Those are the really big brown potatoes with the skin. If you've had French fries. I'm sure you've probably had our our potatoes before. A lot of our stuff is up in McDonalds and burger king. Wendy's Red Robbins Ryan says. Potatoes are great crop. The prices steadied. Demand is basically always growing. Because you know French fries up until the covert thing then. All that change rand had all of these potatoes he had just harvested and nobody to buy them so. Brian decided to give them all away. Maybe two million potatoes million potatoes crazy. This is the indicator from planet money. I'm Stacey Mannix Smith Today on the show the Great Potato giveaway why Ryan cranny gave away two million potatoes. Because a giveaway doesn't seem to make that much sense right now not when supermarkets are running out of everything and millions of Americans are struggling just to get enough to eat still right now. Farmers like Ryan all over the country are pouring out milk plowing their lettuce back into the soil. Trashing their potatoes and eggs. So what's going on as it turns out the food industry is kind of the victim of its own success support for NPR in the following message. Come from capital one with the capital one quicksilver card with quicksilver you earn unlimited one point. Five percent cashback on every purchase everywhere. What's in your Wallet Support for? Npr comes from Newman's own foundation working to nourish the common good by donating all profits from Newman's own food products to charitable organizations that seek to make the world a better place. More information is available at Newman's own foundation dot Org Ryan. Cranny has been in the potato business. All his life is potatoes. Go all over the world. He grows around a billion potatoes a year. A billion potatoes at about ninety percent of them. Go to restaurants Ryan's two million potatoes. The ones he gave away were set to sell around seventy five thousand dollars but you know. Suddenly no one wanted to buy them and those potatoes that he paid to plant and grow and harvest were going to earn him nothing. I felt panicked. I felt extremely nervous. You know several days where I didn't sleep. Well I just super anxious I take it very seriously when you know something is going to throw them or family in our haired is and as Ryan was grappling with these huge questions. There was this more immediate question he needed to answer. Which is what to do. With all of these potatoes they were already harvested. They were going to go bad so he and his team just dumped them on the ground in this giant pile. It was huge. Nearly two stories high and Ryan just stared at this huge pile of potatoes that he could not sell. I looked at him for a couple hours and I kept thinking to myself. What what can I do it? These we could get some good out there and I couldn't think of anything financially that would be beneficial that no way to sell them other than maybe cattle feed which is just peanuts and so it does seem to me. Why don't I try to give him away and let people come gather them up? I knew that the potatoes somewhat been hard to find in the grocery store and so all different giveaway Ryan took a photo of the great potato pile and posted it on his facebook page with the note that read free potatoes. We started dumping potatoes today as we have no home for them because of this Kobe. Nineteen disaster if you'd like if you bags come on by an Oakley Idaho. It's kind of the middle of Nowhere Ryan figured you know. A few of his friends. Few locals might show up and took off like wildfire about three hours later. We had a steady stream of traffic cars. Were lined up to the potato pile. People are filling up their truck beds and car trunks and crates and bags ranch. A lot of the people were volunteers. Getting carpools of potatoes for food banks shelters or elderly homes. Thousands of people showed up from as far away as Kansas Nevada. Somebody called from Ohio. Which is I mean. It's like twenty four hour drive and the Times. We counted over thirty cars at a time that we're there. Here's the thing people need food right now. Unemployment is likely near twenty percent. Millions of people have lost their jobs. Food banks are flooded with requests also. Supermarket shelves are empty. People are paying really high prices for things and at the same time farmers are trashing their crops so what is going on Daniel. Sumner is an agricultural economist. At the University of California Davis. He says the problem boils down to two things. How streamline and specialized things Daniels is the food chain in the? Us has gotten incredibly efficient. In recent years. Growers grow exactly what a certain restaurant or certain company needs. They grew food for that company. They package it for that company. They ship it right to that company. Farmer will be linked directly to the restaurant customers and grow for that restaurant in San Francisco or New York City or a somebody growing exactly the kind of lettuce. Mcdonald's needs for their hamburgers. That's been great system fast cost-efficient less waste fresher food for everyone still. Daniel says because the food growing industry has gotten so specialized when the system gets disrupted. There's not much flexibility. It's hard for growers who grow for a fancy restaurant or a giant fast food chain to pivot to selling in a supermarket. They're so specialized. They can't adapt right away. So you end up. In this weird paradoxical situation it causes consumer prices to go up and shortages appear to consumers and at the same time the demand for the farm product goes down. This is exactly what's happened to Ryan cranny with his potatoes so ran. Normally ships is potatoes to restaurants in fifty pound boxes or two thousand pound bags. Now he's trying to get his potatoes to supermarkets but he cannot find a way to pack them. We aren't set up to pack small bags at a very fast rate while we have one little antique bagging machine that we shipped to the grocery stores of well. Now we're trying to shove every potato. We have into this little antique machine. When people that I will let you know what you said you know the big boxes to the grocery which we had some big box grocery but then the consumers kind of kick back against it because there was too much even a big family like mine. We're at five children even even us. We couldn't get through fifty pounds of details before they go bad. Some farmers are trying to sell fifty pound boxes of potatoes on Amazon for around one hundred and fifty dollars a box but mostly the potatoes are just rotting in fields. Or if they're new they're just grown they're sitting in storage. We have six million dollars and potatoes. That are in storage right now. Ryan is grown all of those potatoes for specific buyers. There presold still. He's worried that those places will not be able to pay for the potatoes. They ordered all those months ago and you'll have hundreds of millions of potatoes just rotting and no income. He says the potatoes will keep until about August and if they go bad he says his farm will be in. A pretty dire situation is going to be scared a few months. Still in the midst of all the scariness Ryan says the potato giveaway has been this incredibly rewarding bright spot. He's people have so grateful and he's felt so great. No in the district are going to shelters and food banks and helping some people who are in the greatest need. I had a conversation with a man of out the potato pile last week. And you know he'd come up and he was teary-eyed and Kinda tried a little bit. Yeah he just saying that you know this is. Oh this is so wonderful. Wish people would give you know like you are and I'm like what do you mean like I am like you're doing the same thing you're you're giving just the same. This is such an amazing experience that whatever we donated it was it was more than worth no question. This episode of the indicator was produced by Camille Peterson. Fact checked by Cronin. The indicator is edited by Paddy Hirsch and his production of NPR.
Why Do Diamonds Cost More Than Water?
"N. P. R.. It is Friday. You know that means time for another one of our summer Friday economics lessons indicator summer school means yes. In this episode, we look at an economic paradox and speaking of webster definitely been a lot of paradox ish things happening lately like say home sales are setting records even though unemployment is the highest, it's been since the great. Depression that's paradox issues and the let's get started on the stock market. But maybe the very first economic paradox ever tackled in an economic way was by Adam Smith. One of the fathers of the field it is called the diamond water paradox. This is the indicator from planet money. I'm Stacey Vanik Smith I'm. CNN The show the diamond water paradox. This episode first aired in July of two thousand eighteen. What's like a diamond? Though Cardiff I liked things you're going their economics lesson in this story is forever. You went there I went there. Yeah. I did not apologizing. This message comes from NPR sponsor Microsoft the world has changed and Microsoft teams is there to help us stay connected teams is the safe and secure way to chat, meet, call and collaborate to learn more visit Microsoft? Dot. com slash teams. I. Am from the West I'm from Idaho and in the West, we are obsessed with water and a group with this kind of innate defensiveness around water. Somehow. I. Always had this feeling that Californian's like evil Californians were coming after our water I think the Both I and our listeners are delighted to discover this kind of emotional water-based insecurity on your part, and the reason for this is agriculture is really big idaho i. mean the potatoes and many other things A. and most of the water for those crops comes from aquifers and rivers and streams. It does not come from rain and so during droughts, some farmers would have their watershed off in the middle of growing season and they would lose their crop. So water is a big deal. It's very emotional. And that is probably why I've always been fascinated by the fundamental question economics called the diamond water paradox, and in fact, this paradox is one of the first economic conundrum. There was ever formally articulated by Adam Smith founder of economics into better understand it. We called up Lynn you. Hello, I'm Linda you. Honest at the author of what would the great in do? How twelve brilliant minds would solve today's biggest problems. And one of the brilliant minds is in Fact Adam Smith. Yes. Deep probably on, you might say the father of economics. Adam Smith you might recall believed in the power of the market the so called invisible hand that guides our economic interactions, every single day, and he thought that the free market was really good at placing the right value on things. The right price on things the for Smith there were a couple of thorns in the side of this elegant theory and one of them was the diamond water paradox. Okay. The diamond water paradox. Here it is. We need water to survive. We absolutely do not need diamonds to survive. So why is it? The diamonds are so expensive water. So cheap why do we value diamonds so much more than we seem to value water, which we literally cannot live without and yet diamonds are price more highly important thing that prices and vow you don't quite a and this is a real conundrum because when Adam Smith put forward his theory about how we should leave it to the market is on the basis that the market can efficiently price based on supply and based on what we demand and implicitly within that, it's also reflection of the value. and I. Really struggled with this, the first good old fashioned supply. There's water literally falling out of the sky gushing down from mountain peaks just sitting in big open lakes, and then there's diamonds which do not fall out of the sky there unfortunately deep underground or gently how Terrible. Surrounded by rock so hard to get too hard to get out of the ground and that especially applies back in the seventeen hundreds when Adam Smith was writing pink away on fifth began to view it is that diamonds are more scarce than water and could explain some of the paradox but not all of it Linda says, scarcity does not quite solve the diamond water paradox because water is not always abundant. The minute you start to realize that actually in some places of the world at water is scarce then the supply that begins look more like diamond. So then you would expect a higher price butts is Linda. Usually don't really get higher price and even if the price of water does go up, it does not typically get into diamond price territory witnesses that another solution, Adam, Smith and other communists have considered. Was it maybe the value of diamonds versus water had to do with the amount of labor involved in getting them like maybe we value things based on how hard it is how much work we have to do to produce them. But that wasn't really quite they're either that one also wasn't watertight. Watertight sorry guarded just looking at Labor wouldn't explain the Diamond Water Paradox because yes don can be hard to mine but water can sometimes be hard to get his. Well, if you live in for instance, a Desert Linda says Adam Smith died in seventeen ninety never having truly cracked the diamond water paradox and for one hundred years economists were wrestling with this question but the paradox it wasn't really fully explained until the neo-classicist emerge. So I'm talking specifically about Alfred Marshall Alfred. Marshall famous economist He. was at Cambridge and he was very much in the school of Adam. Smith in the tradition of Adam Smith and the way that Marshall cracked the diamond water paradox was by recognizing that the way we value things is not totally fixed. It's not the absolute price with the absolute level of utility that matters. It's the marginal utility. The idea is that when you said a price for something like a diamond or barrel of oil or a gallon of water, you don't just price it according to how. Much, you value it writ large how much you value its very existence because in that case, water would trump diamonds every single time I mean you literally needed to stay alive instead, the value of something is dictated at least in part by the extent to which you want that thing where you need that thing in a given moment. Exactly. So Okay Cardiff up say that I have all the water I own all the water and you need water. So the first gallon of water the value. For that is going to be really high. I mean you need it to survive. You would probably pay me anything I asked to get that I count of water the second gallon also very valuable. You could use it to brush her teeth or wash your dishes, all kinds of uses. But what about the Twentieth Gallon or the Fiftieth Gallon I mean how much would you pay me for those? It's more than you can use, and now it's just taking up space in your apartment and you know. Maybe, apartment that is that becomes a problem by the Fiftieth Gallon. In fact, you might not want that water at all anymore, it is not valuable to you, but so you won't pay me anything for it at all its value for you has now dropped to nothing right because like I started by using it for the thing that I vitally needed it for to stay alive to hydrate. Right then I started using it for some things that were luxuries I guess like taking a shower brushing, my teeth whatever. And beyond that I start to get a diminishing amount of information -ment from the added Gallon of water. So yeah. That first. Gallon. GonNa pay you all the money the last gallon. I might pay you anything and just pass it up exactly. But now imagine that I am selling diamonds. That is a different story. Yes. So you can imagine you get one diamond Maybe you get another dime in pair of diamond earrings. If you get another few diamonds, maybe make a bracelet all of a sudden Cardiff's all bloomed out. And showered. So the first time I get awesome the twentieth Diamond Still Awesome the, fiftieth diamond still actually kind of awesome The value of diamonds has less of a relationship to how many diamonds I've already got. So I'd probably pay close to the same amount for the fiftieth diamond is I. would for the first impart because I would expect those diamonds to hold their value in that might be why bought them in the first place? So we can say that the marginal value of diamonds, the extra value get another diamond is higher than the marginal value of water exactly more diamonds more value more is more more water not necessarily more value more is relative diamond water paradox solved. It is funny. The way we value things it it is. It is confusing. It's good to know that also Adam Smith struggled with this. Well he when economists struggle with something, they call it. Can't be. Not Confused they're struggling with the paradox. This is the nature of what it means to be in. This episode of the indicator was produced by Nick Fountain. Our editor is Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is production of NPR.
Stacey vs Cardiff: The Fed Cut Throwdown!
"You're listening to N._P._R.. <music> hey everyone is stacey in Cardiff and this is indicated from planet money tomorrow on Wednesday the Federal Reserve the Fed only get excited I talked about it's very endearing. I love it when they do stuff in the Fed. Tomorrow is very likely to lower interest rates by at least one quarter of a percentage point fed ED share Jerome Powell and other members of the Fed have been signaling clearly that these lower rates are on the way and this moment is a big deal so the goal of lower interest rates is to give the economy a little help a little boost that is the point of lower interest rates they make it cheaper for people and companies to borrow money to take out loans and then they spend that money and all that spending helps the economy but this decision by the Fed is controversial because right now the US economy seems to be doing fine and the Fed helping the economy if it does not need help does bring some risks with it so in this episode Stacey Ni- are GonNa rhetorically throw it down. Yes we're GONNA argue you are about whether or not it actually is a good idea for the Fed to lower interest rates. Now we brought a boxing bell. We've got an announcer right now. I'm doing like mental jumping jacks to warm up yet. It's about to be <hes> skater. This message comes from N._P._R.. Sponsor K._p._M._G.. Revolutionize your enterprise with A._I.. K._p._M._G. can help you harness the power of A._I.. To unlock its potential and deliver growth more at read dot K._p._M._g.. M._G. Dot U._S. Slash N._p._R.. Support also comes from Microsoft snow. Leopards are very difficult to find researchers use use Microsoft to analyze thousands of remote camera images in minutes so they can find and study them more efficiently more at Microsoft dot com mm slash Ed should make that cut the Fed should lower interest rates and help the economy stacy is going to be arguing. The Fed should stay strong the Fed to leave interest rates exactly exactly where they are round one the maestro of the markets the Queen of commodities the ECON- dumb Stacey Vanik Smith and in this Khanna the yield curve and Verda bond market beserk alone without a wonkery call. Let's start this way Cardiff. Garcia the Fed needs to stay strong wrong and not cut interest rates because interest rates are exactly where they need to be right now and you know how I know this. I know this because the U._S. economy is doing just fine it. We just started its eleventh straight year without recession and more importantly it is creating plenty of jobs about one hundred and seventy thousand jobs every month which is a really healthy number for an economy that has been growing for so long. I hope you've got stronger punches than that stacy because I say the Fed needs to cut because even if the economy's growing at a decent pace now that growth is slowing down it was growing faster and creating more jobs last year plus there are storm clouds was on the horizon just like fed shared Jerome Powell said there were the trade wars are going to become a problem investment by U._S.. Businesses actually fell in the second quarter Sir because these businesses are worried about the impact of trade wars and because economic growth in the rest of the world is slowing down to other countries won't be able to buy as much stuff you've made in the U._S._A.. Are you wearing yourself out jumping at your own shadow. I'm winning. You're not winning on to Carter Garcia. You are ignoring the elephant in the room and that is the elephant in the room that is showing us that the U._S. economy is looking great and that is the centerpiece of the U._S.. Economy thank you very much consumer consumer spending. It is two thirds of the U._S.. Economy the biggest part of the giant chunk of the global economy. The rest of the economy always follows consumer spending thanks so the Fed does not need to help consumers with Ending might start to slow down because people don't keep making more money they might not keep spending more money are around three. I think you're you're forgetting something. Cardiff and that is that lowering interest rates is the way that the Federal Reserve fights a recession. The economy is not in recession and right now in case you had not noticed if you lower interest rates well. The economy is already growing. It is like wasting your main weapon. You will not have it when you need it. It's like shooting all of the arrows out during target practice and then having none left for the actual battle. It is like drinking five cups of coffee when you got nine hours of sleep. Why are you drinking all this coffee card because Stacey van Smith Yeah that is already worried that economic growth is weaker in future sure unless it cuts interest rates and slower economic growth would bring the economy closer to a recession anyways. Isn't it better for the Fed to us that firepower now and avoid the recession in the first place why risk it things are starting to heat up around four speaking of risk. You are ignoring another big risk. which is that lower? Interest rates can lead people and companies to borrow too much money and that just because lower interest rates make it cheaper to borrow money. You are more likely to charge that flat screen TVs your credit card. If the annual rate is really low but we all know what happens when people and companies borrow too much money member it happened ten years ago they can't pay it back and when that happens it hurts the financial system and the rest of the economy it can cause financial crises so the Fed should not encourage this behavior which is exactly what would happen if a lowered interest rates yeah. It's true that lower interest rates work by encouraging more borrowing but there is nothing wrong with borrowing money. There's only something wrong with irresponsibly borrowing too much money and making sure that doesn't happen. Weapon is a job for financial regulation. Not For Monetary Policy Monetary Policy which quick aside is just a fancy way of referring to the what the Fed does with interest rates. Monetary policy has to use the tools at its disposal to manage the economy in accordance with its main goals. Those goals are make sure that people people who want a job can get a job and to keep inflation stable. The stability of the financial system. I'm sorry is only a secondary goal yeah who cares about the stability. Billy the financial system okay excuse me for carrying more about workers and he's got are on the ropes this time round five stacey. There is another reason that the Fed should boost the economy only in the last couple of years have gained in the labor market really started going to workers in low wage industries. He's that's because his unemployment goes down. Companies have to offer more money and better working conditions to attract workers as we gotta keep the boom going so the society's most Volna real people can keep gaining more power and more pay. That's the definition of a tight labor market and we are not there yet so the Fed has gotta lower interest rates. Can you get us there. You know what really hurts the most vulnerable workers in this country inflation if the labor market keeps getting tighter and tighter there is a huge risk of inflation because you know it's great that companies are offering better deals to their workers and paying the more but if companies raised their wages too fast they will also start raising the price of the goods they itself fast to offset the higher wages they have to pay and then workers will ask for even more pay so that they can afford the more expensive stuff which leads to more inflation and that can devastate everyone in the economy especially the most vulnerable people and the Fed can lose control and we might be close to that point which is why the Fed should not lower interest interest rates. I am just not worried about inflation right now. So the Fed has a two percent annual inflation target. That's prices going up by two percent each year and it's thought to be a healthy healthy amount of inflation not so high the Fed loses control and not so low that the economy's weaker than it needs to be and for most of the past decade inflation has been below the feds target so if it goes up above the target for a while that's fine. It's just payback. The Fed has learned that the labor market can get stronger than it thought before we get to that inflationary point the relationship between unemployment and inflation has changed. Maybe maybe not economists will be debating this for a while. The Federal Reserve will make its call all one way or the other tomorrow but for now our debate is over listeners. You should send us an e. Mail tells you think one <hes> that is indicator at N._p._R.. Dot Org and let us know what you think. The Fed should do also this episode was produced by Rachel Tone edited by Paddy Hirsch fact check by
The Super Bowl: Key Housing Indicator
"This is the indicator from planet money. I'm Stacey van Smith, and Glenn do you want to introduce yourself? Hi, I'm Glenn Kelman, the CEO of red fin, and you were on the show a few weeks ago, and you mentioned something which is that the moment that you see is kind of the groundhogs day for the real estate industry is the Super Bowl weekend that you can kind of look at the success of home sales in that weekend and kind of gives you like some tea leaves for the whole year. Here's a Cup of that show. It aired on December twenty six and Glenn this is when you said that the fate of the housing market for the year for all of twenty nineteen would be revealed to us on Super Bowl weekend that weekend is though weekend where the housing market either goes crazy or it takes a nap in February yet sort of groundhog day for the housing market. What I'll be watching that weekend. Is just how many people are touring houses and on Sunday night. How many of them decide to make an offer that show has made my life miserable. Come up to me on the street on the streets and say the Super Bowl happened last week, bro. What's the word, and I can't say anything because of our earnings call. This is the first time that the truth can be revealed because we were going to have you on the Monday after the Super Bowl. But we couldn't keep explain why. Well, we have to keep a secret because we're announcing earnings, and we don't want everyone to know about our earnings until we say, so. I thought it was called a gag period. But you for me. Quiet today on the show the gag period is over so Glenn we hear from you about what happened to the housing market on Super Bowl weekend. This message comes from NPR sponsor air table. Whether you're building a product finding your very first customers or scaling your business. Air table is powerful enough to keep your team on track. Get fifty dollars in credits today by signing up at air table dot com slash indicator. Support also comes from wicks dot com with wicks you can build your own robust website and web applications set up your own databases with service hassle-free coating, go to wicks dot com. That's W I X dot com slash indicator to get ten percent off. So you were watching the Super Bowl with your family. I was my twin brother is a crazy patriots fan. And somehow he spent ten minutes with my son, my oldest son and turn him into crazy patriots fan, and they were like going crazy with each other on the phone about the game. And all the while. I knew I was going to have to do this interview. And I was worried about our business. So I'm looking at the numbers. As they come in. So all the Kelman's are gathered in the basement, you are like looking at the game and looking at your computer. Yes, there is a game within a game. So what happened on Super Bowl weekend with the housing market? And specifically what we're talking about? Here is the number of red fin customers toward a home and then made an offer. And this is compared to those same numbers from the end of twenty eighteen which were apparently looking pretty bad. You said so Glenn what did you guys? See the housing market is doing a little bit better. Really first of all should be clear that numbers of incoming in all through January. Yes, they're winter storms. There's a federal government shutdown eight so in the first three or four weeks of January. It was very hard to tell and then the week before the Super Bowl. Oh, looking good. And then the week of the Super Bowl. Oh, yeah. It's looking real good. I wouldn't say that were out of the woods yet. But demand significantly stronger. And what's really interesting and weird about this is just what knife-edge the economy is walking on right now rates have come down a little bit. They were at five. And now they're at four and a half. Right. So rates came down. Yes buyers came back. Yes. If you look at all the numbers that compare January two thousand nineteen to January two thousand eighteen January two thousand nineteen is worse. Wait. No. It is. It is. I know this stay with me. It's less worse in the second half of the year. Things were pretty bad. If you put a house on the market, it was really hard to find a buyer in the second half of twenty eighteen. Yes. And now if you do that, it's still not as easy as it was in January two thousand eighteen they were selling my cock cake. So we're bidding wars in almost every American city except for Oklahoma City. And now that isn't the case, but there's a lot more demand than there was in the second half of two thousand eighteen so there was a dip a little more than a dip. There were a lot of people who thought that sell their house for five hundred thousand dollars, and then they marked down to four eighty and then they marked down to four sixty. And then they pulled it off the market. And that's just something we hadn't seen in five or six years. And now, I think people are encouraged because rates are lower. They're at their lowest point since April two thousand eighteen they were up near five percent now they're down to four and a half percent. So the rate that you pay on a mortgage as down significantly. Yeah. Yeah. And inventories up by about five percent, which isn't so much that you're going to overwhelm demand and have all these price drops. But it's enough that people feel like I can finally buy a house having to get in a bidding war with twenty other buyers. Yes. And so we've seen some signs of life even coastal markets where I'd been pretty skeptical, but those markets are coming back to so I don't think it's on like, Don Kong, but it's better so groundhog's day for the housing market happened. And it looks like spring is coming maybe. Yeah. I think there's a feeling in the economy right now that the good times are here. But we're not sure how long they're gonna last and it's made everybody just extraordinarily sensitive to economic events, especially since the last economic downturn. The how the housing market was so embroiled in it. I think people are really jumpy when it comes to how how. Market's doing there's this dance between the housing market and the rest of the economy, it's huge portion of the economy. And usually the housing market goes down. I and it brings the rest of the economy with it. But sometimes the rest of the economy is just so strong shrugs it off if you've got. Low unemployment some wage growth incredible corporate earnings and a roaring stock market. It's just really hard for people not to buy a house. Between your brothers while of the patriots and your son's wild Levin. The patriots and the housing numbers coming in. And be it must have been like a it was a highly charged day. Good way because highly charged can go like that can mean anything, but in good way highly-charged. Can I tell you what it's like to be a CEO during earnings call. We were talking about this earlier, but you wanna sound like a DJ on a smooth jazz station. You do not wanna seem excitable or flighty or or definitely not a Centric. Today's episode was produced by Constanza guy Ardo. Our intern is will Ruben were edited by paddy Hirsch and were production of NPR. The world is complicated. And for many of us history class was a long time ago. That's where we come in. I'm run that I'm wrong tear Bluey, and we're the host through line NPR's new history podcast every leaf into forgotten stories from the moments that shaped our world through lies history. Like you've never heard it before.
Melissa Dell On Security And Prosperity
"N. P. R. Everyone Stacey in Cardiff. Here this is the indicator from planet. Money Economists Melissa. Del was recently named this year's winner of the John Bates Clark Medal which goes to the best economist under forty who was working in the US. Winning that metal is right up there with winning the Nobel Prize in economics. It's just a massive deal last week we featured one of Melissa's most famous papers which explained how decisions made by the Spanish government. Almost four hundred and fifty years ago led to increased poverty today in parts of Peru the lasting effect of bad institutions is a really big theme in Melissa's work. Think that the main questions that motivate me are thinking about why poverty and insecurity persist and what society needs to do If they want to promote economic growth they WANNA promote security and to be clear by Security Melissa. Means actual physical security safety. I think that the thing that is sort of essentially those things together. Poverty Insecurity is that we can't have economic prosperity if there's not underline security of people don't feel on safe if there aren't government structures in place that allow people to get out interact and markets pursue economic activity. Melissa's papers have these really interesting lessons and cover a really wide range of topics and today. We're going to feature to more of them and both of them have to do with this relationship between security and economic prosperity yeah. The first paper explains how China's increasing participation in global trade for the last couple of decades led to more violent crime in Mexico and the second paper offers lessons about trust from the US bombing campaign in the Vietnam War. Those are coming up right after the break support for this podcast and the following message come from Microsoft teams where you can contribute to meetings from anywhere chat with coworkers and find all your files in one place ready to unleash. The power of your team open teams more at Microsoft Dot Com slash teams Greg. You're right the planet money news. A tell me what you're covering during the crisis price-gouging how to save jobs why the Fed is sending billions of dollars over the world. And why remote? Work Sucks. I miss our chat Npr DOT or exhaust planet money newsletter debts NPR Dot Org Slash Planet money newsletter. For the past few decades China has increasingly become a bigger part of the Global Trading System. Goods that were once made in the US or in other countries could be made more cheaply in China and then imported into the US. And if you're a person who buys those goods it's been great you've got cheaper. Tv's cheaper computers cheaper toys for your kids which meant you had more money. Leftover for other things but if you were a manufacturing worker in the US someone who wants made those goods that are now made in China you might have found yourself out of a job and this is the case not just for manufacturing workers in the US but also for workers in Mexico some goods that were once made in Mexico and imported to the US are now made in China says. Melissa del in a paper Melissa wanted to study the effect of that change on the places in Mexico the municipalities in Mexico where those goods were once made where Mexican factory workers had lost their jobs and so initially that would have been things like textiles as China gets more and more advanced it becomes municipalities that produce things like computers electronics right. So there's kind of a whole range of municipalities across Mexico that we're really hard hit by China being able to produce the same things cheaper. And so what we find. Is that in those places you see increases in crime and in particular you see increases in drug trade related violence in increase in drug trade related violence. So here's how Melissa explain what happened. When young male manufacturing workers in certain parts of Mexico lost their jobs because of competition with China they needed to find work somewhere else and they still to feed their families and without better alternatives. Some of these workers turn to the big international drug trafficking organizations that exist in parts of Mexico who have these pre-existing kind of drug gangs that are there transporting drugs on into the overwhelmingly into the US and they're an alternative economic opportunity and they actually paid pretty well by sort of Mexican standards. And so when you have this economic shock you can't get employment in a factory and a legitimate job that makes being employed for a drug game more attractive and then that tends to be associated with increases and violence becomes more lucrative for the drug gangs offering that location because it can access workers more easily in that leads to conflict related to the drug trade. Melissa says you don't see a similar response from workers lose their jobs in the US or in countries in Europe and one reason could be that the safety net the benefits that unemployed workers can fall back on is just more generous in those countries. So workers are less desperate less tempted to join a violent or illegal industry because those richer countries can just afford to provide a better alternative but the other reason is that these big drug trafficking organizations simply don't operate in those countries the way they do in Mexico. Those organizations have a lot of power and money to fight off law enforcement in Mexico where the economic institutions and the rule of law are weaker and Melissa's that really matters so it kind of combines. These old ideas that there's an economic incentive to crime with the idea that you know the institutions matter. The rule of law matters whether or not we're going to actually see that connection materialize. So that paper shows how economic hardships can lead to more violence if a country's institutions. Don't stop it but we promise to Melissa. Del Papers and the second paper is very different though. It also is about violence in this paper. Melissa studied how the US bonding campaign in Vietnam affected the attitudes of the people there toward the US government during the Vietnam War. Melissa did was to start by looking at neighborhoods or hamlets in Vietnam that were really similar to each other in a bunch of ways during the Vietnam War so these hamlets were similar in terms of their local economies similar in the politics of their local governments similar. And how safe they were and similar in a bunch of other ways. Melissa van compared the hamlets that were bombed by the US with very similar hamlets that did not get bombed by the US. Melissa good then see how the bombing campaign affected the attitudes of the people in the hamlets that were bombed I think that the view that very much predominated in the US and was behind this policy as will be really aggressive. Move on and then people in Vietnam are going to understand. Better get on board with the non-communist State. That's going to be very costly. If they don't and will prevail that is not what happened at all the bombing made people in those neighborhoods very much more likely to support the Viet Cong. It made them feel less safe and it made them less likely to participate in the society that the US was trying to establish in the country and so essentially every way we can measure. We find that this backfired in terms of achieving the US's objectives but that is not all that Melissa found in her paper. We look at another source of variation. We're in some places. The Marines schools and provided health clinics and tried to build support for the US from the bottom up and we find that relative to the top down aggressive approach. That that was actually more effective. People were less likely to attack U S troops. It was more effective and building support and so sort of the broader argument in that paper. Is that? It's very difficult to create a state by just truly imposing from the top down that giving people incentives to actually support and trust in the state is a much more effective way to create that stability human turn need to have economic activity and economic prosperity. In that right there is also a nice summary of one of the lessons. In Melissa's work that to gain trust to generate economic prosperity and just to be effective governments and institutions should consider ideas that work from the bottom up not the top down. Carrots not sticks you. WanNa see more of most as work we will post your papers at NPR dot org slash plenty. This episode of the indicator was produced by Camille Peterson and fact checked by Britain. Cronin indicator is edited by Paddy Hirsch. And it is a production of NPR. The news has been hard to escape so take a deep breath and join us for. Npr's all songs considered it's more than a music discovery podcast. It's relief with new episodes every Tuesday and Friday as we share the week's best new albums and lots of music to calm the nerves here. All songs considered wherever you get podcasts.
"N. P. R. Hey everyone and stacey here this is the indicator from planet money even before the coronavirus pandemic the share of people working from home in the US had already been growing but the acceleration that we've seen in just the past. Few months has been pretty incredible and the numbers can be hard to pin down. But at least according to one survey from economists the share of workers in the US that had been working remotely before the pandemic was about fifteen percent but by last month it was close to fifty percent. Roughly half of all workers are outside of their workplace now. So that's a massive increase in what we're really seeing is. It's a giant experiment with remote work to see how it goes for people. That is Adam. The chief economist at up a company that connects freelance workers with the businesses. Who Need Freelance Workers? And I think that remote work requires a lot of sort of what it comes called learning by doing. Which is that. You don't really know how to do it until you do it. Here is what Adam found in recent study of his. Let's say you compare yourself against another worker in a very similar position as yours so that someone around your same age same sex in your same industry your same level of education and even someone who lives in the same state but there's this one difference you had the option of working from home during coronavirus of the person did not well. You had about thirty three percent lower chance of losing your job then that other person because of course you could keep working and now a lot of companies like twitter and facebook are changing their plans for the future announcing that some of their workers will be able to work from home permanently even after the coronavirus pandemic passes and since they've been forced to do this experiment. I think a lot of them are GONNA learn. It works a lot better than they thought it would. And that we will see sort of an acceleration of a trend that was already underway for longtime time but aside from a few high profile announcements we just have not had much good data on how much the overall trend of working from home has accelerated because of the pandemic until now right after the break. Adam shares with us. The findings of his latest project released in fact just this morning hot off the presses and we take a look at the big effects that this trend bite have for how we work and even how we live support for this podcast and the following message come from Microsoft teams where you can contribute to meetings from anywhere chat with coworkers and find all your files in one place ready to unleash. The power of your team open teams more at Microsoft Dot com slash teams. You right the planet money news it. Tell me what you're covering during the crisis price-gouging how to save jobs why the Fed is sending billions of dollars over over the world. And why remote? Work Sucks. I miss our chat Npr Dot Org Exhaust Planet money newsletter debts NPR Dot Org Slash Planet money newsletter back in November of last year. Just a few months before. The pandemic started economist. Adam OATES AMAC. Did A survey asking hundreds of companies about their plans for the next five years back then. Roughly thirteen percent of workers at the company's he surveyed were already working from home and the companies were planning to increase that share to seventeen percent within the next five years. Then Corona Virus started shutting down the economy earlier this year and Adam saw chance to compare the plans of these companies right before the pandemic versus her plans by April a couple of months into the pandemic so basically it's at thirteen percent there were planning on taking it to seventeen percent and now they're gonNa take it to almost twenty two percent. This is the first big national survey. We've seen that tries to gauge. How companies have updated their plans for keeping employees working from home and what the survey shows is relative to what they had in mind before corona virus companies really have accelerated their plans to shift more employees to working remotely by quite a lot. It turns out but Adams findings included some interesting details on just which parts of working from home work going better than other parts for example when people work from home that means they do not have to have a long stressful commute and for workers it also means they no longer had to deal with like typical office distractions for example colleagues stopping by Your cubicle to talk about. Avatar the last air bender. I mean if certain colleagues would just listen and watch the series then we can stop talking about it. I'M GONNA call interrupt your work to talk about that. We're Golf Matt's between Tom. Brady and Peyton manning and those other two guys right after we talk about Avatar. The last air bender. You're on but there was one really positive. Finding and Adam survey that probably matters more than the other things. One of most important things was increased. Productivity overall there were more companies saying that working from home had made their workers more productive than there were companies saying that it made them less productive. Suggesting that working from home isn't just something. That's Nice for some workers. It can also be good for company's bottom lines as well but of course whenever something changes this quickly and this drastically leap. Not Everything is going to go smoothly. According to the companies in the survey one thing that is not working very well with employees. Stay home is technology. That is not a shocker. And anyone who's ever been on a conference call knows that you know these things never go his plans so Adams's these texts numbers will probably be fixed over time as people get more and more used to using these new systems from home so I actually expect that if you ask these same people who stuck it out. You know three six. Maybe twelve months down the road I think. Technological issues would probably declined in importance. The second problem which is just part of fix right now is it. Schools are not open so a lot of workers are just stuck at home pulling double duty work and parenting and that is a tough environment to do work. In but of course in the Post Pandemic Future Schools will reopen and parents working from home. We'll get that time back. Still Adam says there is a third problem with working from home. The is reduced team cohesion. This one is a big deal. The office social place that can satisfy a real human need for personal connection. The collaboration in jokes celebrating accomplishments together. All that stuff is hard to replicate on zoom chat and some of US really miss it but it also matters for economic reasons yes because when people are close to one another and can discuss ideas together new and better ideas can often come from those interactions. So you get more creativity more innovation. It's hard to exactly qualifier measure. But there's something in the air about being around workers who are working on the same sorts of problems as you are not just in the office but you know socially in the in the same geography and this is one of the reasons that so many companies set up their offices in densely packed cities where the workers can be near a lot of other workers who are just working on those same ideas the same problems in the same solutions so we'll companies risk losing that special magic by allowing their employees to be apart. Not just working from home in different cities but maybe even scattered all throughout the country or the world. Adam predicts that they will risk it now that they've been forced to try leading workers. Stay home companies are going to see that the magic in the air can be replicated by magic in the bites in the digital space and as an example Adam points to how this very podcast episode. That you're listening to right now came about it. Came about from a niece corner of twitter were Stacey and I spend a lot of time economics twitter because we are so cool. No denying that and we're one day many years ago we bumped into atom. You know economics quarter of twitter. There's absolutely something in the air and there are a lot of great ideas that come out of there and you learn a lot from being there and there are a lot of what you might think of his chance encounters. Do you come here often. Like three to four hours a day to be honest with you way more often than I should or maybe most cool bar at the moment. I don't know maybe both I don't even know and Adams's if enough companies are convinced these benefits of working remotely then. It could have a really big effect on the economy and on the country. The more Lauren things are that they're gonNA need less office. Space AND OFFICE SPACE COSTS MONEY. And also once you go fully remote you hire workers from anywhere in the country and that really opens up sort of were basically your labor market and it makes it easier to find the the right work for the job wherever they're located. It is still really in this big experiment. That companies are running in having their worker. Stay home and there are real trade-offs to working from home permanently that we'd might just not realize yet but if Adam is right and if more companies do allow workers to stay home then a lot of workers themselves will also end up having more options for where they can live. They won't have to be where their colleagues in their bosses are. They won't have to live in a place they might not like to do. A job. Do like today's episode of the indicator was produced by Lena. Since Gary Fat check by Britney Cronin edited by Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of NPR.
"N. P. R.. Hey everyone. It is Cardiff and Stacey, and this is the indicator from planet money today on the show GDP GDP stands for gross domestic product and it's basically a sum total of all of the goods and services that the US economy produces. It's often considered to be the measure of economic growth. Yep. GDP includes all the cars, an air conditioners in shoes and haircuts Uber Rides, and fish tacos and pedicures that the country is producing and buying. And so atypical GDP growth number is like two percent a year or maybe a really great year three percent. It's like soccer scores they never it never gets very. Stay pretty low and that's because the US economy is enormous. So even when a lot of things change the GDP needle doesn't budge very much at least it didn't used to. That's right. The GDP numbers came out today and for the months of April May and June that's the second quarter. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of negative thirty two point nine percent that is today's indicator negative thirty, two, point nine percent and I have to see if I saw this number I was like our economy shrank by thirty three percents I mean that is a third of our entire economy, right? I mean that can only happen a few times. It was really scary. So I called up Justin Wolfer as he is a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. And I was like wait a minute is the US economy like one third smaller? Did we just lose a third of the economy and so did we lose their economy? In. Okay. Okay. It turns out the way that Americans report the GDP. is a little more confusing than you might realize. What actually happened is in the second quarter, we produced nine and a half percent less than we did in the first quarter. You might think we should report that as a decline in GDP of nine and a half percent. Yes. What we do instead is we say if we continued to plummet at that right for an entire year. At the end of the year, how much lower would GDP? That's what thirty two point nine percents. it says if the economy kept declining at a right of nine and a half sin quarter after quarter after quarter after quarter four quarters later, a level of output would be good. Two point nine percent lists now that's unrealistic. This was the worst quarter. Probably. In American history. So. Yeah. Let's say you do not try to extrapolate for the whole year. Then what you're looking at is that in April May and June the economy shrank by about nine and a half percent from the first three months of the year, which is way better than an economy that shrink at thirty, two point nine percent. But. That number still makes April May and June. The worst three months in the history of the US economy. That's right but just in also is quick to add this GDP report is not like the other ones. Explain why right after a quick break? Support for this podcast and the following message come from Barracuda Khuda total email protection according to the FBI last year cybercrimes cost three point five, billion dollars get the free e book thirteen email threat types to know about right now at Barracuda dot com slash NPR. In April May and June, the US economy shrank by nine and a half percent it is the biggest drop on record. Dan swonk is chief economist at Grant Thornton. In Chicago, she says it when she saw the numbers this morning, she was not surprised. She had been making calculations for weeks and she kinda just knew this was coming but still these numbers really hit her hard. I've. I've literally felt my stomach churn numbers have come out and felt like I was punched in the Gut. Here is why Diane's is when she sees a number like negative nine, point five percent, GDP growth. She's a really see a number. She sees all the things and all of the people behind that number millions of people losing their jobs, their homes businesses, and you can't delineate the economic pain that we've seen every single number every single. Person that applies for unemployment insurance has a story and they have a life a life. Threatening, of being destroyed not just by the threat of a virus, but but I, also by the economic devastation caused and we know that economic devastation hurts people's health as well mental and physical health. So this is a humanitarian crisis the likes of which no one in recent memory has has any experience with. And this is an especially hard moment to see numbers like this. Dan says because right now a lot. The economic aid in stimulus that Congress had given the economy back in March is expiring. For instance, the extra six, hundred dollars a week that Congress added to unemployment benefits is expiring and that means millions of people will see their incomes drop in half overnight. Also, the moratorium on some evictions lifting, which means millions of people could lose their homes all at once, and that's what's so worrisome especially as we're on the precipice of everything from expanded unemployment benefits expiring to moratoriums convictions expiring, we could be talking about Food Insecurity and homelessness that are more akin to the Great Depression than any time in our history. But there is one big difference between the current crisis. In the Great Depression a difference it makes measuring this moment really hard. That's covid nineteen. Yes. The economic shutdowns across the country have meant that a lot of businesses were forced to close forced to lay people off but a lot of that could be temporary. Hopefully most of those restaurants, hotels, bars, hair salons, clothing stores. Will Open back up Rehire people and start selling stuff again when they do, GDP will go up probably shoot up because a lot of it will happen all at once really quickly. So Justin Wolfer says the real question he is asking looking at that negative nine and a half percent is how much of it is permanent and how much of it is directly pandemic in just Doesn't. It's temporary. We Ha- we Yes. It's temporary. It's a temporary downswing. The question is do we bounce all the way back to where we were halfway back? More lists and that has massive implications for how the subsequent. Playoff. For now, Justin says our economy is in this kind of suspended animation. And to really understand what covid nineteen has done to the US economy, we will have to wait until restaurants in hair salons and bars and offices reopened. In, the virus is under control and we can all start to get back to business. This episode the indicator was produced by Camille Peterson fact checked by Cronin the indicator is edited by Paddy Hirsch and as a production of NPR. Until, recently, admit Hong says he didn't speak out against racism because he was scared. Listen now on the codes which podcast from NPR.
Economists On Screen, Episode 4: Stockholm
"Hey, one card if this indicator from planet money down the show part four of our series about economists onscreen a mini series called Stockholm premiered last year at the Toronto international film festival in its very first scenes, we learned that famous Israel economist obvious shy is a front runner to win the Nobel prize and economics in just five days. But there's one problem his friends just found dead at home in his bed in Tel Aviv. But there's a rule that you can't win the Nobel prize economics unless you are alive when the award is announced so as friends who were all roughly his age in their sixties and seventies try to prevent other people from learning that he's dead for the five days before the announcement. So that he can still win the prize after the break my conversation with no Yellen the Israeli author of the novel on which the mini series is based and who also co wrote the screenplay for the series. She joins us from t- Elvy one radio studios in Tel Aviv. Support for this NPR podcast and the following message. Come from wicks dot com a web platform for creating your own professional website. Join over one hundred twenty five million people already using wicks to tell their stories online. Goats w I x dot com to create your website today. Support also comes from UNITA budget their award winning app and proven method have helped hundreds of thousands of people gain total control of their money. Get out of debt and save more faster. Try it free at you. Need a budget dot com. All right know, what brought you to economics in the first place. Why did you start talking to communists? Well, I didn't know that. It's going to be a comics the first place there's many areas in which you can win in a bell price could have chosen literature and made my life. A lot is here. But I was looking for a subject we on one hand is considered Bihar core of academy like chemistry, and like other subjects, but on the other hand, it's something that has a story in it that I can tell a story and economy tells the story so the story Nabil's me also to have some relation to the story. I'm telling as the as artist as the person writing the novel I had to make it. So that the field in which his specializing which is a field that I invented would be something that would relate to the theme of the novel or two. Theme of the series. It's very interesting and the field that you're referring to you invented is power economics. So why don't you give us your own conception of power economics, and what it means to this character? These theory tries to predict power changes inside firms and bigger Guineas ations, and what he claims is that actually the very high end of the pyramid is the one that is always suffering. I because the very high of very high end of the pyramid will be completely eliminated from the firm and the people who are the lower class under the o or under the the the next level are safer. So the idea being that it's very volatile at the top, you're constantly endanger. Whereas if you're sort of mid ranking manager, you might have a stable job for quite a while. Although I should say this contrast quite star. Kley with the experiences of another character almost the one who's not dead and trying to help preserve occupies body almost as a happiness economist. It comes out as the series goes on that he harbors quite a lot of professional jealousy towards Avas shy. Even after she is dead. Yes. So his very jealous. And it's jealousy that he harbors for decades now because they both started the same year at the same faculty in the university and he's happiness economy, by the way, he's he's theory. Just the idea that happiness is correlated with uncertainty. So higher of uncertainty lead to higher rates of happiness as it was presented in the series. Yeah. That's true. So both theories relate very closely to the characters to the world. It was important to me that if I'm working and putting whole theory book than I thought it's crucial that it will have some relationship with. Dynamics between the people between the characters with things that go about. And can I ask you a question about the centrality of awards and recognition in the series? Because obviously at the very center of the series is this idea of the Nobel prize in the way bestows upon somebody that kind of ever lasting fame, which of course, is of no use to the person who is already dead. It is a thing that the friends say they're doing for him. But you get the sense as time goes on in the series goes on that they're doing it for themselves, and that maybe they don't even know after a certain amount of time people so often talk of what it's like to be friend in time of need in time of illness of their of the stress, and they talk about it. Because it's very nice thing to talk about. It's very pleasant to speak of how we are. Good friends, but they rarely speak of what it's. Like to be friend at time of success. It's the other end of the rope. You can't say anything, but I'm happy for my successful friend. Anything else is unsaleable, it's unthinkable. And then I started thinking about this and about being friend in time of success. And I started thinking of what can represent excess in the most even I would say brutal way Nobel prize kind of the symbols of the western world about prize is like God came down. He said this person is successful. That's my decision by I'm going back up. And all these discussion these philosophical discussion about what success really is and who decides successful. And it was not an all these relativism. The Nobel prize Putin into this discussion. And I started thinking what's happening when the spotlight is so powerful that it necessarily lights the people around you as will it likes them. And they find themselves in the spotlight, but it's not there for them. And because the Nobel prize is also something that you usually win at kind of an advanced age ultimate when you're twenty five then this necessarily relate also to the biggest questions in life like what I achieved. And okay, I'm seventy now have done what I wanted to do to have time to to to correct to change all these questions about where am I standing in comparison to other people questions that are just normally doesn't make you a miserable person. It just makes you person and thought these are such interesting questions, it seems like it would actually be twice as hard to get over feelings of jealousy. Like this especially for friend because on the one hand, it is a natural human impulse to feel envy. I think we all experience that at some point somebody has figured it out. And we wish we could be them. And that is an. Comfortable feeling on its own. But then you couple that with the guilt over having that feeling because societally I think the message is if somebody you care about is doing well, you should be happy for them. I can tell you that when I was writing the novel. There were moments Freising that I was a bit frayed. I was thinking, you know, people would read it, and I can call him almost individual all I want. But my name is on the cover, and I may come out of this just this horrible sculpting person. And you know, people read it and say, what is she talking about have never filled these emotions, but then I re reminding myself of something that I learned during my writing years, and which may be the most important thing that I learned and that is that I'm unfortunately, not a unique enough person to be the first ever. Has felt anything if and I know that if I felt anything ever than medians of billions of other people fell the same way. And when they would read it or watch it on scream, they would say, wow, I'm so relief that I'm not alone with with my on elegant and sometimes bit petty and disgusting thoughts, and I think this is the power of arth that it's gives it gives us company to our weaknesses. That's the wonderful thing about art. Thank you so much for doing this. Now, this was this was a blast. Thank you so much for having me. Episode of the indicator was produced by Dr as RAF Jaen edited. By paddy Hirsch, the indicator is a production of NPR. Sam Sanders here every week on my show. It's been a minute to journalists, and I reflect on the news and culture of the week. Because when the news is this complicated. It really helps just talk it out get up with us on it's been a minute from NPR.
The Fed's Sweet Spot For Interest Rates
"Folks, dropping bombs shell 'economics just doesn't always sound very dramatic. For example, here is Federal Reserve charity Rome Powell, dropping one just last week when we think our policy stances appropriate right now, we do we also know that our policy rate is now in the range of the committee's estimates of neutral. The beige bombshell. That's exactly right. It was good of chair Powell, by the way to provide his own sound effects. It was nice that we kind of knew going on. Yeah. Obviously joking sound effects were all us. I'm Garcia, and I'm Stacey Vanik Smith today on the planet money indicator. We explain that banal sounding statement from chair Powell why does not only not banal, but why potentially represents a big change for the Federal Reserve. And why it could also be a really big deal for the economy. This message comes from NPR sponsor male champ. It might sound like male champ only does Email marketing, but they can do a lot more to help your business grow with landing pages audience management and automating male champ. They do more than male support. Also comes from Cleveland Clinic ranked the nation's number one heart care, according to US news and World Report for information on the complex cases treated at Cleveland Clinic, or to get a second opinion. Visit Cleveland Clinic dot org slash heart care, if you're interested in watching what the Federal Reserve does. And really who does not wanna watch the fed. I mean, can I get a show of hands? A good way to start is by reading the blog of Tim, Dewey, and the name of your blog is Tim to his fed watch fed watch amid on the nose. Is not a complicated title. You know, what you're getting straightforward men in this story of what the Federal Reserve is up to actually begins last year in twenty eighteen through most of last year. The US economy was healthy and growing quickly. It already had good momentum going into twenty eight teen, and it also had some help from the US government. Tim says we also have a blast of fiscal stimulus come through more government spending lower taxes, and this helped supercharge the economy and with the economy growing quickly inflation also started rising, and this makes sense because when the economy is really good and unemployment is low worker start to make more money, and they'll often spend more of that money on the stuff that the economy produces. So the prices of that stuff goes up, you can think of houses is just one example, if more people want to buy houses than the people selling those houses can charge more money. So the price of houses will climb in the Federal Reserve does not want inflation to go up by too much. That is. One of its main jobs to keep inflation rising only at about two percent a year, maybe a little below maybe a little above two percent. And so when it looks like the economy is strong enough that inflation might just threaten to go up by a lot more than that. The fed tries to head it off it tries to slow down the economy just by enough to prevent inflation from going up too, much and the way the fed tries to slow down. The economy is by raising interest rates because higher interest rates make it more expensive for people and companies to borrow money. So again, think of houses if mortgage rates go up, you're less likely to take on a mortgage and buy a house and the same thing applies to companies when the interest rate is high on alone that company gets from a Bank, then that company is going to be less likely to borrow the money and spend it on equipment or factories or research, or whatever. Yeah. And overall when interest rates go up because people in companies are spending less money on all the stuff in the economy that ends up lowering inflation and last year, Tim reminds us the economy was growing fast enough that the. Fed raised interest rates a bunch of times because it was worried about inflation going up by too much four times to be precise. The federal short-term interest rates from roughly one and a half percent to roughly two and a half percent. But then towards the end of the year something happened that the fed did not expect inflation, not only stopped rising actually started falling. In fact, it fell below two percent. That's the Fed's target. So what was going on? We put this question to Tim. So what's been going on is really the there's been a bit of surprise that. We may be don't understand inflationary dynamics as much as we did. So that's one possibility. But the fed just doesn't understand how inflation works as well. As at thought, it did another possibility is that inflation started falling precisely because the fed has been raising interest rates so quickly. The thank that. It was weakening toward the end of the year suggests that yes, maybe the fed was a little bit more aggressive, or if they had continued to hike rates with end up being more. Aggressive in slowing the economy than the economy really needed. So there could be other reasons, and it might be a bit of a mystery just why inflation started falling near the end of last year. But the US economy itself did finish last year, quite strong, and the strength seems to have continued into this year in January. For example, the economy created a lot of jobs and companies are paying their workers, more and more. And so you would think that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise rates this year in two thousand nineteen just make sure inflation didn't start going up again and has recently as last December just a couple of months ago. The fed did in fact intimidate that it would raise interest rates two more times this year. But then a few things happened. So there's a number of factors as we got through twenty eighteen this started to I think shake confidence the Federal Reserve that they be able to continue to raising interest rates into twenty nineteen and among those is slower global growth particularly out of China, which should then. Way on the demand for US goods. There's also a lot of political inserting on the global stage right now because of the possibility of a hard exit from the EU for Britain, not only that but financial markets were also in turmoil for example, stock market fell by a lot which was a possible signal that the economy will grow more slowly in the future. Then a lot of people expected now with all of this background. We can now explain the bombshell. The beige bombshell that the fed dropped last week. So here again is the first line of that statement from fed chair Drome pow we have to break it down to really get into this. We took out the sound effects. This time we think our policy stances appropriate right now policy stance is appropriate. Sounds like. Sounds like. But when chair Powell says that the policy stands is appropriate right now. He's basically saying that interest rates are where they need to be at least for now. They don't have to go up until the economy gives them a reason to go up. So seems like he's going to keep interest rates where they are now. Okay. That's the first line. I part of the bombshell. Here is the second line. We also know that our policy rate is now in the range of of the committee's estimates of neutral, boom, really make an earn our keep I mean what I like lost. My attention drifted in the middle of the sentence. This one does require bit of unpacking. So the fed tries to estimate a neutral interest rate, you might think of as the Goldilocks interest rate. Just right. It's the interest rate that is high enough to prevent inflation from going way above the Fed's target too hot. Yeah. But it's also the interest rate that is low enough that the economy keeps growing at a fast enough pace that nearly everyone who wants job can get one more. Or less, and what chair Powell saying here is that the interest rate right now at close to two and a half percent might actually be that Goldilocks rate, which means that the fed might even be done with raising interest rates for good not just for now. Like, the fed may never raise interest rates again ever. Well, at least in this cycle that that might be it that the next time. It moves interest rates is if the economy slows, and then I'll have to lower interest rates. What are they even do though if they're not raising lowering interest rates heaping them where they are vacation? It is too early to know for sure if inflation suddenly starts despite higher than the fed would probably change its mind, but the mere possibility that the fed might not have to raise interest rates anymore. Even if the economy keeps growing and unemployment stays low that is just what is so shocking about chair pal statement. And this goes back to Tim's point about how the fed and economists generally might just not understand inflation dynamics as well as they thought they did it suggested another possibility, which is at the US economy can keep growing for a while, and creating jobs and paying people more without inflation getting out of control. If only the fed will let him in judging from what chair pal said, maybe the fed will. Like, we can have our cake and eat it too can ever growth and are low inflation to that is a bombshell. This episode of the indicator was produced by Dr RAFI on edited by paddy Hirsch, our intern. In fact, checker will Ruben and the indicator is a production of NPR. Hosa and next time on that your USA new heard about it plenty of times before and it's often being criticized its NAFTA, the North American Free trade agreement we look into its history and its impact in Mexico where the same people who used to buy their food at a local mid Gallo. Now, just visit the closest WalMart. That's next time on that the USA.
Sports Teams Need To Fill Stadiums
"You're listening to n._p._r. In sports has a problem ticket sales down major league. Baseball is hurting especially badly. Attendance is down eleven percent from a decade ago but this sales slump is happening across most major sports even college football with exception of the n._b._a. Who football taste ball hockey. They are all suffering in this sale. Slump is happening for a few reasons number one television or video at least z. way back in the day. If you're a fan you had to show up to the stadium to watch a game live but after multiple evolutions in technology of watching stuff on the screen there are now so many different ways you can see a game sling t._v. youtube and good old fashioned cable and for major league sports teams the money money you stand to make from a t._v. Contract it's just way more than what you would make just from ticket sales so t- management can sometimes be a little less worried about at selling tickets at live games and more focused on signing broadcast deals reason number two ticket sales slumping is that today's sports fan is changing. They are <unk> are younger like you and me cardiff. Yeah yeah just super useful. We are so young of course fans wanna see their team's win but these younger fans want you things things and not every stadium is giving them what they want. Today's season ticket holder doesn't want to have to sit in the same seat at every game they want lot more flexibility and that is not always possible and they want better food and better prices at the concession stand something i think we can all get behind and we know this is because not only have we been two games ourselves but also because we put out a call on instagram and we got a ton of responses at mrs pink coffee cake rights aloha aw stadium charged eleven dollars a domestic beer in a plastic cup yeah then there was at amy megan who writes. Why did i spend twelve dollars on a kid sized hot dog and subpar fries and still end up hungry should've gotten the adult size dog a that's a problem yeah reason number three that ticket sales are down at games god or the universe. I don't know some mysterious. Supernatural force may be doesn't want you to go to the game because last year it rained a lot and it was cold and the major league baseball association told forbes bad weather kept fans from melodic games. I'm and i'm sally herships on today's show. We look at solutions that teams are trying to sell more tickets the face of declining sales to their own fans wipe. This message comes from n._p._r. Sponsor fund rise innovating the way people can invest in real estate fund rise makes it simple to build a portfolio of high quality real estate affordably visit fund rise dot com slash built and get your first six months of advisory fees waived waived in order to cope with their problem of declining ticket sales sports teams are trying out a number of new and different strategies one strategy. I think that we can all agree. It's probably the most important if you want to sell more tickets offering better food and drinks and better prices. Yes please one of pet peeves. I will call this. One is is the price of water when you go to sporting event. A bottle of water is always some x. Factor of what you pay outside out of utility rob comstock is founder of riptide partners. He helps companies that run live events gathering understand feedback from the fans. He says the atlanta falcons skins have been doing an especially good job offering reasonably priced food and drinks at the concession stands and i know jack pricing there but another very fair impression across the board including a bottle of water just want to hydrate sally all right. I don't wanna pay half have my weekly salary just to hydrate and it's so frustrating because you have to empty your bag when you're on your way into the stadium and then you are forced to buy water inside right about two years ago the falcons cut prices on concession concession items by fifty percent and as a result the team says sales went way up so this spring the team lowered prices yet again you can now buy pretzel pretzel bites or a waffle cone for four dollars and fifty cents so strategy number one lowering the prices of food and drink strategy number two to it is one. You have seen elsewhere getting rid of set prices for tickets yeah. The clear trend is dynamic pricing which it's a it's a phrase you'll hear often often and it's really that ability to <hes> you know you remodel the hoover model one. We know well just like with buber. When there is less demand sports franchise can also lower prices to try to drive up ticket sales and if there's a day where there's gorgeous weather or a big rival team is in town and there is high demand the team can increase prices to try to take in more prophets but this strategy can also come with some risks six season ticket holders sometimes can't make all the games they bought tickets for so they sometimes want to sell their extras but an algorithm says prices too high there could could be a problem yeah. It might not be able to sell tickets that is right expensive and if all of a sudden they can't make a little bit of margin on that seat or worse than the loss on that. That's going to create some unhappy fans as well. It's kind of like oh. There's a lot of customers who will not take an uber if it's raining or whatever and the prices is go way up and then the fans who had those season tickets who can't sell them or kind of like uber drivers who now find themselves without people to ride in their cars is because nobody wants to pay those higher prices so if a baseball or hockey team sets price is too high then season ticket holders might not be able to sell their extra tickets either hi there in which case yeah everybody loses so yeah there are risks but for now at least teams are trying that dynamic pricing model that was strategy number two the next strategy teams are trying strategy number three get ready for it. It's exciting flexible seating going to a game and not having an assigned assigned seats <hes>. I don't know i feel about this. Not having it assigns these this is actually something i asked robert about our any teams actually doing that like letting fans come in and not having having assigned seats. It seems like the potential for like anarchy or chaos. There are some i mean when you think about the oakland a.'s that's a great example. They've they've done some experimenting with more of a membership type approach because they have a much larger stadium than they can typically fell. They have the flexibility to designate aac space that is more open allows for flexible seating as well standing room standing baram. Yeah i'll be honest. It sounds kinda stressful. It's like when you don't have an assigned seat for a plane flight or something and just have no idea where you're gonna end up. It's like the southwest airlines of baseball games yeah unless you're super dedicating their really early now navy but yeah flexible seating that is another strategy that teams are trying strategy number four the subscription model so if you are a fan of let's say the atlanta braves you can pay a flat fee every month about thirty nine dollars and then you can go to as many home games as you want. Although those seats feature also standing room only yeah i dunno <hes> still to be fair. A spokesperson for the atlanta braves says there are a lot of options available and i and the team is offering the service because it's what younger fans want. They want subscription models. I mean you can subscribe to almost anything now. There are subscription beauty products razors close. Even walmart has a men's grooming box. Subscriptions are really popular way for people to pay for things. It's now so why not tickets to a game yeah the oakland a.'s they also have a subscription program and the team says for now. It's working. Well and i guess that's a a good thing because for now while sports teams can count on ad sales from t._v. Deals there's also a whole lot of cord. Cutting going on two teams may end up having to count on live events once again you talk about a roll of the dice this. This podcast was produced by darius roffe on edited by paddy hirsch in fact checked by emily. Lang indicators are production of n._p._r. Hey it's money ain't a whole host host of n._p._r.'s latino u._s._a. The podcast that takes you inside the latino next conversation each week will bring you stories that will fascinate an often surprising. It's let's say listen and subscribe down.
Wyatt Cenac On School Funding... And Thor
"Everyone. It's Cardiff today, the indicator something a little different. We've got the comedian Wyatt snack on the show he visited our studios because he's now promoting season two of his TV show called problem areas, which is on HBO in which looks at social issues in the US now on the show why it spends a lot of time interviewing people, but in his monologues. He also drops a fair amount of economic data points and other ideas from the social sciences. But of course, why it is also a comedian. So his monologues are a mix of social commentary and jokes delivered in his own cultivating style the truth is that teachers salaries have been stagnant. For decades. The average teachers savings is just three confiscated game boys, and a pack of stickers someone left behind over some break. So on the indicator today, why tonight tells us what he's learned about the economy since he started hosting problem areas his approach hosting the show, and he shares his best interviewing Tim. This message comes from NPR sponsor gained bridge. Gained bridge offers a new Witty's designed for the digital age. Simplified products with guaranteed returns that you can buy direct. Learn more at gain bridge dot life slash NPR. Game bridge is not available in all states. Support also comes from fund rise the future of real estate investing access private market real estate projects from high rises in DC to multifamily apartments in LA. Get your first three months of fees waived at fund arise dot com slash indicator. Let me start with this. You've done a few episodes that look at economics in the economy. You bring in a lot of economic data. As my first question is is there something about how the economy works? That is surprised you that you've learned in the process of making problem areas. I guess if there's anything that's surprising. It's both an over reliance and in under reliance on economic models to look at whether we should fund certain policies or do certain things when you look at sometimes the way that money gets spent I think there's some moments where the say, okay, well, historically, if we put money into schools and into something like education, we see net benefits as far as crime reduction or job growth things. Like that. Where it's like, okay. It seems pretty clear that these numbers play out time and time again, but will ignore those numbers. And so there's an under reliance in that way. But then it feels like there are these over Reliance's on economics as far as where this capitalist society that are focuses on profit profit profit profit at all costs and we use. Those cold numbers to kind of take humanity out of things. And so I think if anything surprises me, it's just how kind of fast and loose. We play with our allegiance to these numbers. Sometimes DC that as one of the goals of your show to marry those two things that you've got these numbers, you're not afraid to use numbers in your show, especially at the top of the show, and then the more human side, which is when you sort of get out into the field yourself with your team. And you interview people, you know, so often the national conversation around an issue is one that gets distilled into these talking points, and when you actually go to a city, and you see the human cost of it. All it changes it at least to me because it's very easy to say. Well, okay, you know, New York City spends X amount of dollars per student. Why Stuyvesant high school liar their students all doing well, academically and the school in the Bronx? They're students are Strug. Alling are we spending the same amount of money per student? And once you dig into the weeds, it's like, well, no, this it's actually different, you know, at this school in a lower income neighbourhood, we may be spending more money on school safety agents than on actual like stem training and things like that. And so what is that doing for that education when money's going to that? But you don't have the resources to sort of fill out the library or do any of those other things as a place like Stuyvesant just should know for our listeners is also a public school. Yes, why the kind of inequality between public schools here is kind of. I mean, we're not talking about like, well, one is just all like, you know, private school. So you would expect all the rich parents spend their money on it. And might be better school. We're talking to public schools. Yes. With dramatically different outcomes for their students. Right. And when you start getting into a definition of what is. Adequate if these two things are in the same public school system, what then becomes adequate when you can have an elite high school exist, and you can have one that has a crumbling infrastructure. A high turnover of teachers most of the students on free and reduced lunch lack of stem, training and other resources. How're those two things falling under the definition of adequate? It's hard to have those conversations in the those things when you're just sort of outside looking from that thirty thousand foot view that I get by being part of the national conversation. Qesku question about how you approach the craft of putting the show together as we've just discussed with a lot of Weiner. As we've just discussed. There's a lot of very heavy topics that you cover season one policing season, two -cation a lot of struggle and sadness in some of the episodes. But you obviously come from a background in comedy. And I'm wondering how you strike the balance between those two things between the fact that you're covering these sort of heavy social issues, but you also have responsibility to make it comedic to make it funny to be entertaining. I mean, I think in the sort of core of my understanding of comedy, that's always been the sort of delicate dance that happens. I think whether you're looking at what a show like mine is doing or even looking at the daily show or last week tonight or Patriot Act Jordan Clapper's gotta show. Kamau bell has a show. Samantha b has full frontal. I don't know that what we're doing. Is that new I think if you go back, and you look. That political cartoons of newspapers from the eighteen hundreds. There was taking comedy and using it as a way to get people to engage in big political conversations oftentimes about some of the same things that we're talking about. Now, I think you look at that. I think you look at stand up comedians. Whether it's Lenny, Bruce, or Richard Pryor, or digress or Joan rivers. There's always an element of it. That is taking something that we're talking about whether it's women's issues, whether it's raise whether it's politics and you're bringing those to a stage trying to wrap them in humor. But at the same time trying to get people to engage with them. And so that's always that balance that I think has been there in comedy. I gotta say the this style of your show seems a little different from some of the shows you just mentioned and even from some of the from the styles from this earlier comedians. Less acerbic, and in particular in your interview style, I guess it's because you're interviewing like normal people rather than somebody who would be the natural like target of a joke. Your jokes tend to be either self deprecating or not about the person certainly that you're interviewing and there is even especially in the teachers episode the kind of element of sweetness to it. Right. There's a lot of listening, and I'm wondering if that was a conscious decision on your part in terms of the style of the show to make it a little bit different from some of those other ones in my mind. I feel like I'm making a late night show. I've just chosen a different way to do it. I honestly think about it a little bit like like Conan when I got to go on Conan. I think one of the things I appreciated most was Conan is such a great interviewer. I think there was something in his approach as well as IRA glasses approach that I I was kind of like, oh, they treat their. Guests as people who are someone that they're proud to talk to and someone that they're excited to talk to. And so to me it was like, okay, I'm not talking to someone who's promoting and avenge his movie, but I'm talking to someone who is proud of the work. They're doing and. Okay. Yeah. This isn't I'm not talking to Thor. But could I talk to this person with the same kind of approach that I would if I was talking for treat everybody like Thor seems like a pretty good pretty good fruits interviewing. Yeah. And so that's that's the that's the way I've gone treat. Everybody like Thor. Yeah. Give me sell me. Your avengers endgame of in a form. Yeah. Why it's an act of being on the indicator around. No, thanks can tell you. We were super proud to have you on the indicator, and like, Chris Hemsworth, or buddy or longtime listener be a first time tweet her. This episode of the indicator was produced by Dr Raphael on and edited by paddy Hirsch, our intern will Ruben and the indicator is production of NPR.
The First Milestone In The History of Economics
"N P R mm-hmm do you ever wonder we're economics. Came from yes or is that just us might just be also probably yes so the first ever work of economics that we know of was an ancient Greek poem from the Eighth Century BC it was called works and days by the poet. Hess Yod and and it wasn't anything like the more famous ancient Greek poems from that time like the Iliad or Odyssey poems about war and conquest Trojan horses and revenge. And seafaring thing. Yeah Hennessy. It's works in days was a different kind of poem. Here's how Stephen Matama. Historian of economic thought. Duke University describes it. It's not an epic tale. The you know there's no adventure there's no you know lovely young maiden waiting at the other end of the journey. It's just has. She had lecturing his brother. Tell him to quit being such a jerk nagging. Lovely young maiden isn't waiting at the end of my journey. It's the worst. So here's what was going on. Has Kids brother. Percy's was like the original slacker. The two brothers had inherited this biggest state from their parents but proceeds had blown his half of the wealth and was coming after US S. yet half bribing local Greek officials to give him more of it. Just had responded by doing what any of us would do lawyered up. No he invoked the mears's ears use and then wrote a long poem about the virtues of hard work as my second shaming Percy's and those corrupt local officials. That's right a Greek Greek poet telling his brother to stop being so lazy. freeloader is the first ever milestone in the history of economics the very first place where the kind of analytical reasoning reasoning used in economics is found. Stephen says what he's trying to do in part at least is explained to his brother. Y work work rather than a life of idleness is the appropriate way to live in the world. That we've been left in Stephen Just wrote a new book called the economics. gimmicks book from xenophon Decrypt Currency Two hundred fifty milestones in the history of economics. And the first of those milestones is has the odds works and days and the ideas that has got presents in his poem representing obviously primitive form of economics. But those ideas are still recognizable as concepts that are fundamental to economics today this message from NPR sponsored show Bonnie out may taste taste just like milk. It's creamy frothy and great with coffee and cookies but without the dairy because it's not milk it's almost milk new Shabani Viney owed support also comes from you know the capital one assistant that catches things that might look wrong with your credit card. Send you an alert and helps you fix them another way. They're are watching out for your money when you're not what's in your wallet. SEE CAPITAL ONE DOT COM for details ladies and gentlemen a passage. From God's poem works in days formerly the tribes of men on earth lived remote from ills without harsh toils and the grievous sicknesses insist that are deadly to me. Yeah one of the stories that Halcion tells in works and days is about why hard work is needed. If men want to build up their wealth yes he was referring just to men and not a super progressive eight century so give him a pass but there was a former time according to this mythology when food and other things were abundant and the earth provided all that men could want but then prometheus a titan tricked Zeus King of the Gods and stole the use of fire from the gods so that men could use it. Zeus rights had responded angrily by sending to Earth Earth a terrible affliction to set against the fire. Shall you've been affliction which will all delight as they embrace their own own. Misfortune and his fortune was a woman. That's how I said he wasn't a super woke writer specifically a woman named Pandora who's jar or box unleashed terrible things upon all mortals. She opened it. One of those hardships. Was that for people to get what they wanted. They would have to work for it. Food for instance. Seattle rights was now concealed by the Gods so people would have to toil in the fields. If they wanted something to eat in other words the gods had introduced scarcity to the world and scarcity is the first team we're going to discuss from the poem. Stephen Magma EH author of Economics Book says that the Economics Definition of scarcity though is different from the way that normal people use it when they mean a shortage of something that might run out when the economist talks about scarcity. What he's really talking about is is available? Resources are limited relative to humid watts. Scarcity is economics is one. Oh one the idea that the world has finite resources so we have to make choices about how to use those resources like land is a resource so if you use land to ride forces or I don't know throw keg parties whatever your also choosing not to use as farmland and crops won't grow in here has yet is using the concept of scarcity versity unleashed by Pandora's jar to lecture. His brother Percy's on why hardwork is a moral virtue after Percy's had blown his half of the family money and perseus squandered. A whole bunch of that now has hit saying you gotta work. Not only that you should have been working before. We don't look kindly as a society. Heidi on people who just want to consume. You need to earn your way. He's arguing and if you don't you're not going to be well. Viewed by the people around you which brings us to the second economic theme and has the odds poem shame namely the role of shame in a market economy. Stevens says this kind of societal disapproval can help economy work better. If it creates social norms of fairness and trust and Pepsi writes about the importance of property rights the idea that if if you earn something yourself you get to keep it for yourself or you know you can also voluntarily trade it for something else. Without property rights. People might not work as hard because then the stuff they make could be taken from them. This was an early iteration of the idea that the law and also a sense of shame can reinforce good social norms and respect respect for property rights and this is good for a whole economy. That's true of countries to this very day. Stevens says Percy's has his brother is trying to cheat Hess. You've you've his own share of the inheritance right. He's not respecting Hess. She's property rights and so there's that sort of personal lesson to tell with the much broader more general implications which brings us to the third big economic theme in works in days the role of envy in the economy. Has He writes that when you look at the wealth of others and see that they have worked hard for that wealth then it might lead you to work hard to attain that same wealth has he had refers to this form of envy as strife and says it is good for mortals. But Stephen says economists know that strife by different name when he uses the word strife the economist reads the word competition. And there's good competition and there's destructive competition and what he's emphasizing here of course is is the good competition right so for Halcion the Vatian to work hard or at least part of it is. It's a keeping up with the Joneses effect right that I want half what that person has and so I'm going to work hard so I can be like her for keeping up with like. I Dunno Demosthenes Affect Jones of back. Then uh-huh Percy's was envious of Hessy's wealth and Hessy was trying to convince Percy's of a better alternative a more ethical alternative to satisfying satisfying his envy then to seize se. It's half of the wealth work hard build the wealth yourself and the Gods will bless you and this is an underlying theme in works and days as the peaceful competition is better than destructive seizing or conquest. This can apply to countries as much as it applies to feuding brothers from ancient. Greece has said writes quote vote. Violence is bad for a lowly man. Not even a man of worth can carry it easily. And it's an economically sound lesson but Stephen ads that economic growth. It can take a long time and a lot of work whereas theft and conquest or always tempting. 'cause they're easier you just take somebody take it and so there's something kind of sad about the fact that he had wrote all this back in the eighth century BC his conquest imperialism. Seizing unearned wealth. These were still the norm until at least a couple of hundred years ago and they are still with us now in some places. Oh yeah it took a very long time to learn that lesson And One can question if it's ever really really been fully learned or if it's just circumstances have you know sort of tamp down. The urge for conquest or modern weaponry has done so halcion. Sei economic analysis with all its references to the muses and the Gods was you know it was primitive because he was manifest time but in understanding the importance of stability ability and peace for economic prosperity. A lot of ways I think he was ahead of our time. This episode of the indicator was produced by Darius Rafi on our editor is Paddy Hirsch. Our intern in fact checker Brittany Cronin and the indicator is a production of N._p._R..