2 Burst results for "One 51.8"
"one 51.8" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Take it. All right, John is your Bloomberg business flash. Thank you very much, John Tucker. We appreciate that. Just freaking kidding. Star power. Star power. Rifle joins us here on a Bloomberg interactive broker studio. She covers all the markets for Bloomberg news. Katie, how was your long weekend? Oh, it was so great. Okay. Breathe sweet dream. It's hard to be backward. It was such a quintessential start of summer weather. It was beautiful. Did you see Gus? Oh, big time. Gus is the horse. Gus is the horse. Big horse. Yeah. He actually got a bath. He used shampoo and conditioner. On that horse so he is shining like the sun. Good job. All right, what else? What are you looking for here in the markets here? It's kind of all over the place a little bit of a little bit of red, a little bit of green. Yeah, I know Katie's looking pretty coolly at the debt ceiling in kind of the correlation with particular stocks that have been moving. Yeah, I feel like a little bit patriotic over the weekend. We finally got a debt deal, whether you know what passes remains to be seen, but you are seeing reaction in the market. Of course, in the treasury bill space, so I'm seeing seeing some pretty dramatic rallies there, but it's an interesting you are seeing some reaction in specific stocks as well. At the index level, of course, we're just being driven by Nvidia and that AI boom. But then you take a look at names such as SoFi, you still look at names such as equitrans, and you are seeing some pretty substantial pops there. There was a great note out from BTIG this morning, specifically Isaac bull tansky, I believe he's joining TV later today. He singled out SoFi's potentially getting a lift from this deal potentially passing from the debt ceiling being raised since theoretically we're going to see student loan payments resume, that would be good news for SoFi. The big reaction that we're seeing is in equitrans holdings. So I have to say this is not something not a stock that I was tracking that closely, but he points out that basically there's a section in the deal that would expedite approval of the mountain valley natural gas pipeline in West Virginia and Virginia. That would be good news for its lead developer, which is equitrans midstream the stock right now is up 33%. So clearly the market agrees. Yeah, looking at SoFi, take a simple SO FI up close to 6%. So this would be its best day since not that long ago, May 22nd. So there's been a moratorium for student debt holders, right? And this is a pandemic thing. For federal student loans, okay. So that's going to start up and presumably that will result in more activity going through the SoFi. I believe it's supposed to end probably in August. Boy, that was a good thing. That was a little years. That was a good deal for folks that have the students. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And I mean, again, it's interesting to see the stock actually reacting to that. So if I currently up about 5 and a half, 6% or so, but you're right. So this would end that student low pause theoretically. I mean, Isaac does write that they caution that the student loan saga is far from over, but that would be a positive for this personal finance company. What about when it comes to H and R block? I know that's another name that they were talking about as well. Yeah, so you take a look, it's less of a reaction, but still pretty much a straight line up from the opening bell H and R block currently up around 1.7% right now. That's because there is about $80 billion worth of new funding for the IRS. It's going to be reduced by $20 billion. So a bit of a haircut there. But BTIG writes that this reduces the likelihood of the IRL's building out in expansive E file competitor basically. So that's good news for H and R block or it would be again. There's still a lot that has to happen to actually ink this deal, but just parsing through the details as clearly people in the market are. There are some clear winners here. Yeah, it's interesting talking about on the political side that we were asking Jack Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg earlier today. Was there any real winner here, the Republicans are the Democrats and not really from that perspective, but I think just getting taking that off the table, which most people believe was an inevitable bit inevitability, just taking that risk off the table is good for the markets. I think it's interesting on the political side too. I think we flipped this question to a few people on Friday who are the losers here. The U.S. defaults, does this look worse for Republicans or Democrats than the answer we kept getting was it looks bad for everyone involved that they wouldn't be able to get a deal done. So maybe not too surprising to see what was it Saturday or Sunday that we got that news. I feel like that was later later on Saturday Sunday. After a three day weekend. Time is a circle. All right, so Nvidia just got a note pass as $1 trillion market valuation has only been 9 companies that have done that. They're the first chip company, but that's, I guess, kind of news. It is news, and I mean, again, it's interesting to see Nvidia up what another 6%, right? Today, but now you kind of get what people are crying about when they say that breath is so narrow. This is such a narrow rally. Because even with another big rally from Nvidia, you look at the S&P 500 only up about two tenths of a percent or so. If you take a look at how many stocks are actually rallying now in that index, apparently I forgot how to do that, but it goes to show that even when you have a big rally in one of these names unless everyone's participating, you could get a muted game on the index, which is kind of what we're seeing right now. But that's definitely been a theme of this equity market. If you look at X SPX up about 10% year to date, that's not bad. And then you go SPY. Which is equally weighted. It's basically negative 0.5%. So it just shows you the handful of stocks pushing the S&P 500 higher. Yeah, and I feel like chess is probably already done that, but it'd be interesting to look at how big that divergence is. So they're actually, it's the fourth widest in the history of the mega cap divergence. I knew you had all the data. All right, Katie, thank you so much for joining us here on our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. Katie crypto cheese across asset reporter, giving us the latest on these markets again. The S&P up about two tenths of 1%, the Dow off about four tenths of 1%. And NASDAQ still holding on to that relative outperformance up 7 tenths of 1%. We had some eco data, some consumer confidence data and I guess there's a pre get the funding deal, the debt ceiling limit level of expectations and confidence and then the post, but Audubon also drum. He joins us here. He's a director. He does all that stuff for the conference board. So autumn, we had some consumer confidence out there. It looks like the, for the May, it came in better than expected, but perhaps down from last month. So how should we kind of think about that? Yeah, well, the consumer confidence numbers in May or down from April. Despite being better than expected, I think what was noteworthy is that president situation index looking at the current environment decreased to one 48 .6 from one 51.8. And president situation had been holding up and so it was, I think, interesting to see that even there consumers are starting to feel a little bit more pessimistic. Of course, expectations has been dragging down overall confidence and it's continued to decrease and that expectation index has remained below that 80 level, which is associated with recession within the next 12 months. So overall, consumers remain gloomy. And they're also becoming a
"one 51.8" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bianco research, tough today in the FX market, bonds on the move, currencies on the move, and it is a strong dollar. It is weaker bonds across the world yields up Tom things it feels like are starting to break around the edges with right now the Japanese yen at one 51.8. We're going to dive into this with Steve major in the next half hour, but to take 30 seconds of steel of the Met ludlow on Twitter right now, we are at a moment here. I can't say enough folks looking at the Bloomberg terminal, the critical breakage points here on the Bloomberg dollar index, which shows I'm going to talk pro talk here because it's that important. Short term convexity and Bloomberg dollar index taken log, I see rather the yen breaking out with new velocity towards a one 52 and Sterling with all the politics going on, Lisa, is absolutely textbook, short cable. Textbook chart, short cable right now. But how much is this really being driven by the dollar story on the yield story? And I say this because yes, UK has been a train wreck in terms of the political turmoil. However, we're not necessarily seeing this just only isolated to Great Britain. It's also the absolutely global and I got a stagger back to one statistic here before we get to Twitter 1.81% on the U.S. ten year real yield that is moving. That is almost to the phrase leaping logarithmically up in from a one 61 to a one 80, maybe that's the one statistic that helps. We're talking about how quickly yields are moving on the flip side of the dollar, the dollar and the real yields, the nominal yields, four points. Points to 3% for the ten year treasury. At what point do we end up with something that really is a game changer in terms of longer term expectations? Keep your breasts to the center course looking in the foreign exchange is the deepest part of the market. The deepest part of Elon Musk's market is, well, maybe it's not going to work a number of items out this morning saying he may have another cash call to finally get this transaction done Edward ludlow joins us right now. Expert on all this. I think there's four Musk stories this morning which one matters for his ability to get this transaction. Yeah, the Bloomberg report that D.C.'s antagonized by him. This is about Biden. Yeah, so Bloomberg reported that according to sources, his recent behavior and commentary around the war in Ukraine about his brief threats to remove the Starlink connectivity services that he was providing to help the efforts in Ukraine. And also just simply the deal to buy Twitter, our sources tell us that across a range of government agencies, they're thinking we might take a look at this. Now, by the way, public service announcement, The White House has this morning said that it's not aware of any review of Elon Musk's security clearance or any security review of his businesses. But clearly they're thinking about it. This isn't the first time this happened 2019. He goes on the Rogan podcast, smokes marijuana. He also leads the biggest private space. Oh, come on, come on, you're not gonna equate marijuana with a guy who builds technology which helps Ukraine in battle. I'm not all I'm saying is that this discussion around Elon Musk's behavior and his security clearances remember SpaceX provides services not just to NASA, but to the military and The Pentagon. But also, he's a big contractor, right? And they simply said this is not the behavior forthcoming or fitting for somebody who had this level of security clearance. The bigger issue around the deal is this. Ironically, we'd reported things going pretty well. Bankers on both sides working, the banks getting ready for the debt called come in, right? And then this comes out and it throws the deal into doubt and you see that reflected in the market. This is a distraction. Let's be honest, because Twitter has been an ongoing distraction. A story unto itself with the Elon Musk kind of hubbub. But it masks the real story even at Twitter, which is that they were planning cuts at the company even before he got involved, that this was a company that was really struggling. And you're seeing that not just with Twitter, but the social media facing tech companies more broadly as we saw from snap. I mean, how much have we seen the reset already take its course versus have more to go? Back to what Jim Bianco just said. Exactly. The shock is greater than we expected. Actually, we thought the as softness in the advertising market was done with. After the war in Ukraine and in Europe in particular, we had the commentary from Alphabet parent of Google. We had to commentary from snap actually already. But the wording in their earnings statement was so specific, a pullback in spending by advertisers. They're decreasing budgets and all of these names are fighting for a small pool. Why is it important? It's actually a pretty good lens into the macro picture. Advertisers pull back their spending because consumers aren't spending why they're hurt by inflation. People are probably not interested as much in tech right now because they're looking at markets. And they say, hold on a second, and they see yields moving dramatically. But this is part and parcel of potentially a similar story. The free money is over and the tech is going to be reeling and that is what we're seeing right now playing. My eyes didn't just because I'm interested in tech. I'm trying to justify my existence. But I take city, for example, they have this cool where they're overweight global tech. Why? Look at the specific names, the one with the strong balance sheets with the entrenched market positions when you're trying to work out what to do in an earnings season and where earnings on an EPS basis will hold up better than other corners of the market. There is a thinking that actually yeah, of course, apple is going to fare better here. They're more nimble, they've got the cash to flex. They're smart about how they handle the economy globally. So there is some optimism out there around global tech being a better play. Almost like a defensive stock. Do you buy that theory? I don't know, but there is some corner of the market that believes that. Well, perhaps find out Ed ludlow, thank you so much of Bloomberg will find out perhaps on Thursday with the earnings right now, stocks and bonds very much on the move yields higher. And the dollar really preeminent Tom around to other love. Well, when Bruce Gilbert tweets sentences time, give me a DXY quote. I don't have my Bloomberg where they Bruce good morning to you. DXY one 13.86 out to one 14, one 15 is an unimaginable print. And I'm going to go right back to the IMF meeting where on camera and off camera, it was the same thing. They're watching swap lines, which is the borrowing of overnight money, think Friday, between major countries, including Switzerland, its confusing, its advanced, and critically the nations that do not have available the ability to go out and borrow gazillions of dollars overnight that don't have swap lines. And I'm going to say that these are the shadows cast right now by the rumors, the speculation Lisa about the unknown of swap line discussions of the IMF and all the major central banks. You suggesting that there's some sort of battle. There's no. No, I'm not saying back wrong. I'm saying, I'm looking at the Bloomberg screen on a Friday and it's given me all sorts of information that there's something going on up there. I don't know what it is. I think that there is something going on. There is yields a higher and there's a dollar. Markedly stronger and even more so as the moment goes on. And I do have to keep coming back to the yen. We had expected intervention. It has not come yet at least to the satisfaction of markets with a pervasive weakening in the currency as they stick by the real purpose. Their goal is control there and the way you get control is Saturday, Sunday, into their morning, stay with Asia and Bloomberg radio and TV