35 Burst results for "Odd Lots"

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

05:03 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"So for me. My target audience is mostly institutional clients. Right folks who actually are trading tips and who are treating the fixings so in that respect the is really sort of a. I would say there's kind of three main elements one is the actual forecast for me. Luckily i've been doing this long enough where i've got a reputation. I've got a track record in history. That i can present a clients and say look what i'm trying to build. Here is the best in class forecast that you will get on the nsa index or what matters tips. Here's my history of that and that's the goal is to have that be the best in class forward. The second is just the detailed analysis. Making sure that everyone understands. What's going on and the timeliness. I think also matters quite a lot so you know the stuff that i put out typically will be well in advance of anything. You're going to get from the south side and it will give you an opportunity Agree with my view. For example that will give you an opportunity to actually traded in the market before the cpi comes out whereas right now a lot of sell side research. You know. it's coming out. Forty eight hours before the number prince and that's really not much of an edge but it's the detail now says the timeliness and then finally i i would say i'm probably on the horn with s if not daily. You know at least once a week. Even though i've been doing this for a long time it is honestly just a constant kind of learning process. I mean there's there's about two hundred eleven indicators go into the cpi there's over seven thousand basic item area indexes that you could look at and so it's just kind of a constant learning process and it's you know for for me i've always had this Luckily good rapport with with the folks. There who i think are incredibly helpful in terms of learning about the components and so on and that's sort of the kind of i think you know the kind of knowledge are not really going to be able to get most other places so now i have to ask how specific you can actually get when it comes to The inflation basket. So this is a really weird question but i went on like a massive tangent a couple of weeks ago because there was a restaurant in north carolina that that guy was quoted as saying that he was spending two hundred dollars more per week in mayonnaise because of inflation and so of course everyone started calculating while how much mayonnaise is a restaurant actually buying based on cpi and then. I started going on bloomberg and looking at the components in cpi and it turns out. Mayonnaise comes under the salad dressing and spreads basket. And so i. I guess i'm just curious like how in the weeds you go and can you give me like a quick Quick read on. What's going on with with salad. Dressings yes so i. I don't know if i can pull up a salad dressing forecast now but you know i would stake when you get to that level. You have to make choices right. I mean like. I said there's there's over seven thousand. Mary index says there's over two hundred eleven sort of broad components in the cpi..

nsa north carolina bloomberg Mary index
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

05:16 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"And jump have been doing as much of the work behind the scenes just not as loudly well on the totally in kind of a fantastic discussion. Really appreciate both of you joining us and thanks for coming on odd lots. Thank.

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

04:57 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Hello and welcome to another episode of the odd lots podcast. I'm joe weisenthal. Tracy alloway so this is a. This is a fun time. I is a real treat last week. Of course we got to speak to Dallas fed president robert kaplan. And even since then though we've had plenty going on including a very big jobs report yes like a powerhouse of jobs report really i think come. I think payrolls climbed by. I think it was nine hundred. Forty three thousand in july which was much much higher than economist. Expectations of about eight hundred seventy thousand. And of course the unemployment rate keeps drifting lower. I think it came in at. What was it five point four percent which is basically the lowest since the pandemic started. And we're not quite where we were before the outbreak of covert nineteen. But we're certainly getting closer. That's right so of course in the early part of the summer. If i recall or like two reports or economists were looking for big things i go million plus jobs and they didn't really materialize and there's all kinds of concerns. Oh a totally back. The labor market the last two data points however have been quite strong nearly a million each and no signs of slowing we see the headline unemployment rate Coming down pretty rapidly now. So i would say some of the labor market healing that Maybe people thought would come a little sooner beta just the spring. It seems to be kicking into gear. Of course the delta way of the ongoing pandemic notwithstanding the of course the question is what exactly are policymakers. looking for when it comes to employment. And you've spoken about this quite a few times now but it does seem like the definition of full employment has changed to something much broader and inclusive and. Everyone's trying to wrap their heads around exactly what that means at the same time that they're also trying to wrap their heads around average inflation targeting and things like that yet. Exactly right like so. We know that the fed has seems to be a. I think a big part of the framework. That was unveiled. Basically a year ago..

joe weisenthal Tracy alloway Dallas fed robert kaplan fed
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

06:44 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Hello and welcome to another episode of the odd lots podcast. I'm joe weisenthal. And i'm tracy alloway you know we haven't really talked about sort of the pure like markets in a while. We've been talking a little bit about crypto who've been talking a bit about macro we've been talking about Supply chains a lot. Obviously but the other big story for the last year to have has just been this incredible boom in trading. I'm going to ignore the subtle. Dig at crypto. They're talking about markets except for sir but yet no you're right so it feels like so long ago but really it was only six or seven months when we had the game stop phenomenon The big boom in retail trading and wall street beds in this idea that everyone was suddenly pouring into stocks. It feels so long ago. It's weird yet. And of course you know like so i personally. I started getting interested in markets. Just as a thing. I was interested in like in the late nineties and high school under the dot com bubble going on and at that time it was trading retail trading takeoff but also just really became part of the culture. People were talking about the stocks were trading and what they were bullish on and so forth and then it went filled. Felt like that basically went into twenty or hibernation and then whenever one was Locked in their homes with the krona virus crisis for the first time. It a really came back. Yeah so. I remember writing about this earlier in the year. And i think the way i framed it was flows before pros. So this idea that if like if you have this. Immense buying momentum from retail traders or retail investors then may be like if you're retail person you're in a better position to judge that momentum than someone with a professional background you know say a sell side analyst at a large bank. Someone like that. Who's looking at fundamentals. And i think that was kinda borne out At least temporarily by some of the meme stock price action but it does beg. The question of what exactly is the difference between a retail trader versus a professional trader absolutely. And there's also the question of course you know we've had all these people come into the market prior of them have done really well like probably people have made a ton of money and made multiples of what they make of their daily salaries. And because it's been this bull market which means some are going to be tempted to like go pro on some level not necessarily go work for a bank or a fund but say oh like. I made a ton of money. I could do this. Why would i go back to my job and some people will be thinking about. Do they want to make trading their fulltime vocation. Yeah and again. The question is whether or not the past six or seven months have been extraordinary in one way or another. I think we all agree that the experience of kobe and the market during that time have been somewhat unusual on and whether or not their success over that short timeframe can carry on longer term. Right so people are going to be asking themselves a do. They have what it takes to be a traitor and be if they can how to win so today. We're going to be speaking to a guest who knows a lot about trading a longtime veteran and he can. He will tell us whether you have the stuff whether we him. The stuff with the listener has the stuff to make it as a pro trader. And if they do go into it How to win at all right. Let's do it. I'm excited a very excited. We're going to be speaking with brent. Donnelly he is the author of a new book alpha traitor the mindset methodology and mathematics of professional trading. His a longtime veteran for over twenty. Five years he's worked at hsbc new mara city. Very excited to learn from brent. Brandt thank you so much for joining us. Hey guys great to be here. I'm a huge fan. So thanks a lot for having me so i guess i guess the first question i have is what is a traitor. What do you. How do you define traitor. Because some people invest some people sometimes reallocate. Some people are moving in and out. I guess day trading but when you talk about a traitor. What does that mean well. So that's a great question so in the course of writing the book One great thing about writing a book as you get to talk to a lot of random people because people diem me a lot on On twitter and lincoln and your question is a really good one. Because a lot of people i can tell by their questions to me. Don't really know themselves whether they're an investor or trader and to me I'm biased because my whole experience has been trading but my belief inefficient markets is that On short timeframes markets can be kind of inefficient and on longtime frames. They're pretty damn efficient. And there's a lot of research that supports that as you guys know passive versus active. I mean charles. Ellis was writing about that in the seventy s With data showing that that passive beads active. So then. i think you really have to know what you're doing and know that you're what you're doing is trading and then you might have a specific edge and i think really the difference is i mean the obvious differences timeframe to me trading is is something probably less than one or two months and then you can call it kind of call like two months to one year swing trading but that's getting closer to investing and much more fundamentals but i would say the definition of real- trading is something that's that you're doing that's short term where you have a solid risk management process and you have an edge that you can identify and you can explain to somebody who's not an expert in in the business. I definitely want to ask you about The risk management aspect and also the idea of an edge in trading up before we do just. Because i think this will help maybe Conceptualized the idea of a traitor but over the past ten or twelve years. Basically since the two thousand eight financial crisis. Would you say that's been a good time to be a trader or a poor time because we've sort of heard it both ways so there were people who argue that valuations are completely based on momentum and inflows and the more money. That's flowing into something. The more valuable it gets and it doesn't really matter about you know things like price to book ratios.

joe weisenthal tracy alloway hsbc new mara city brent Donnelly Brandt lincoln Ellis twitter charles
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

03:33 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Hello and welcome to another episode of the odd lots podcast. I'm joe weisenthal salloway. Tracy you hit a great piece. I want to say this morning For blog about some of the interesting dynamics happening in the economy right. Now thank you. I really appreciate that you know. We're we're in this weird moment. Were obviously at least on the headline basis. The economy is still still seems to be growing very rapidly out of the pandemic delta various aside and we'll see how the effects that those have on the other hand we are seeing inflation in a way that we really haven't seen in years and there significant Debate about why that is. The degree to which policy is contributed to that inflation that degree to its policy should millions that inflation and of course as you sort of discussing a very big picture framework in that piece. There's just these sort of like these bigger questions about supply-side capacity and the various log jams in supply chain bottlenecks. That we're seeing really all over the place right now totally so i think i called it. The choke point economy In that piece and the idea is that even though on an absolute level You know economic growth looks pretty good. There's a lot of stuff being produced in the economy on an absolute level. But on a relative basis you can see these blockages shortages showing up in lots of different things And in ways that are not always productive or helpful to society or the wider economy. And so the question then is do governments. And policymakers start to step in to try to relieve some of those blockages. Yeah and there's so many interesting policy things and you know this is of course something that we've talked about a long time. There is the fed's new framework seems to be much more willing to tolerate some periods of higher inflation in the pursuit of full employment. Do is the massive amount of fiscal spending. The likes of which we've never seen before in twenty twenty there's further There's a further infrastructure. Bill being debated so amid all of these sort of moving pieces in the real economy. We're also sort of. I guess you could kind of say uncharted uncharted policy territory as well. Yeah i got that. It's a cliche to say that things are uncharted At this point in time but it's true the economic shock that we just experienced in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one was very unusual and in many ways unprecedented and now we have an unprecedented period of fiscal stimulus. And also that's coinciding with this new framework from the federal reserve in new ways of central banks really thinking about monetary policy and how it works with government spending. Well i think that is the perfect segue into our guest. I am absolutely thrilled to get to speak to our guest today. It's a real treat To have him on a odd. Lots that he'd come on we're going to be speaking with rob kaplan he is the president of the dallas federal reserve Been in that role since late. Two thousand fifteen. So he's seen a lot and he's in the thick of it with all of the policy choices that have to be made right now president. Kevin thank you so much for joining us. Great to be with you. joe tracy. This is really a real treat to have you on. Thank you so much. Let's start Very big picture..

joe weisenthal Tracy fed rob kaplan Bill dallas federal reserve joe tracy Kevin
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

02:51 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"They can't buy leads us. Run out dollar spy and they might have another three hundred million dollars in their bank account or in other exchanges. That didn't help them by that offer. Anybody take a day to get the dollars over there. If there's new marching that that also makes it way harder for marketers. Fried deep liquidity is again like it's the capitol efficient for them to eat. Seventeen billion dollars of reserves of every plausible currency on every possible exchange. Right because in the us you have to in like us acuras. You need to put orders on every exchange put in crypto to do this. You need to like actually capitalized like your maximum order. Exactly and this is the flip side. This is a drawback today. The crypto system work. I served described the vehicle earlier of life one integrated product. And so you did so much efficiency out of like you know you just have your funds there and do anything you on the exchange and like they're no intermediaries. Everyone can do it. You've like there's no like stock loan business. Being completely dislike separate in a separate company is ever timescale from like the trades. He needs to be doing you. Get a ton of efficiency of this but the flipside is you don't have one central prime broker. That's capitalizing simultaneously all exchanges for you with the same. Topical separately capitalize each one which is super super expensive. Especially if they don't allow margin successively one issue that you run into which isn't an issue with overall crypto market like if you're looking like the blended average bitcoin race thought a huge deal but if you're looking at like blowouts of one particular venue that like okay short but like like your that like let's see she's average. Bitcoin races across all major changes. Do not worry too much about like yes. If there's like divergence generally wants to. Bitcoin i like you know. How much is that diverge it. You know it's better than it was three years ago. The markers are massively. That are licensed than they were three years ago on to. I think something you saw on this draw in may from like sixty to thirty k. It was like very very orderly At fifty percent drop in like a one day period but like there's laws liquid nations like there there weren't massive illiquid france markets remain liquid and in in wurley more or less impressive extent given the volatility contrast that with a year ago in march twenty. Twenty when stricter dropped from nine to four k. And like today period people freaking out there that like they're gonna be systematic failures in the industry and like you think about it wasn't like r. k. Goes people worried about it. Was two thousand eight it was a chain of liquidations of businesses started by a few in thoroughly people going around saying we have no idea. Who's underwater care like through the every. Watch the boston. Businesses.

us france boston
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

04:14 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"System from scratch and you kinda went in design the system from scratch right like you started like a big exchange in a in a product universe. That is not really beholden to any traditional like rules or customs. And i'm wondering like are there places where you like like what we do here at janus reader what we do in the stock market has really dumb. Like if i were doing it. I do it differently. Were you actually went and did that at at fte x. Totally and. I do think the answer is really serve. You look at each place near like. Who's doing it right. You know sort of like the crypto dorm crack food strange dorm or like the traditional exchange. Sometimes it was wanted sometimes. It was the other suli some examples of places where i crypto highs. Like at least in argument for doing it right now. I personally think they've probably are one of these is moving funds around is obviously one of the first things that comes up with crypto but i at least just assumed it was easy to get your money wherever he wanted a before. It ever tried to do that but as soon as i. I tried to ever move money around. I realized how difficult was anyone who sent an insurance in leg. International wire transfers immediately regrets having to do it and then you look like ach and credit card payments they take months to finalise and so either these all these limits huge zaandam so many plots system. Because like there's two months of fraud race. They're just doing things like funding your account or what he would that even needs to find your account on traditional exchanges is like very messy and can take a while whereas entrepreneur like the goals to make. It is clean as possible when you're sending cryptocurrencies and that's obviously basically On of you know the the wire transfer timescale like even with with the emphasis is like anyone whether you're you've two hundred dollars. Surname were here. The world's second-biggest shift firm you can go to the website. Kyc info crete count directly with the exchange. And then there's like the deposit but and it has like as many options as possible for how you can find your account as usually get massively easier process and you know when when you serve incorrect. Do what you quickly realized that you never want. Npr hardest thing to do and like everything gets some stable. If you get away with it another thing. I'll bring up is the different nature of the products. So we think of what he's like. Niger seeing the or something like they're mostly matching outfits like they they serve batch bids and offers from a few institutions against each other. But they don't do anything else. The trade faucets right. There's like separate companies that do custody clearing anal. Kyc customer on boarding branding advertising mobile app website. Api all of.

janus Npr Niger Kyc
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

04:25 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Schedules vessel berthing windows priority lists and how they physically wanna move cargo in and out while working very closely with the international longshore warehouse union for the dockworkers truck drivers warehouse operators cetera From the financial perspective we lease out property to these private sector companies and we make our money by every container that is moved over these stocks and that revenue stream. Then as i mentioned those back into three major segments of port infrastructure both physical as well as digital art community efforts on public access retail dining entertainment public infrastructure and then thirdly environmental strategy that has been in place now for the better part of seventeen years which is witnessed a reduction in diesel particular matter by ninety percent over that time what is a the market share when we think about the biggest ports entering the us. And i know there's you mentioned the port of long beach is another big one. Can you give us this. Sort of distribution of Major sort of entry way for imports. How much share does the port of los angeles have. And i guess is a sort of a two part question you know we think about okay. The ports are jammed and we obviously have this issue. Is this an area that would be right for potential further public investment. You know there's this big infrastructure bill. They're debating in dc. Is there an opportunity to expand our import capacity. So that we don't have these issues in the future. Sure both are good questions Brought picture on the on. The market share percentages many while both ports long beach and los angeles or municipal agencies of the respective cities of most in the industry observers users of the customer is in and transport service company's all see this as one port complex and this complex represents forty percent of our nation's imports and about thirty percent of our nation's exports. Now the interesting take here. Joe and tracy is that before two thousand and two. We had fifty percent of the nation's Imports we've lost about..

international longshore wareho long beach los angeles dc us tracy Joe
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

04:23 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Hello and welcome to another episode of the odd lots podcast. I'm joe weisenthal. And i'm tracy alloway tracy. I think we're actually getting to the point where we've covered a lot of the supply chain finance..

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

02:22 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Hello and welcome to another episode of the odd lots podcast. I'm joe weisenthal. And i'm tracy alloway so tracy obviously one of our big themes so far for the podcast and i guess for the economy overall has been the sort of like shortages and bottlenecks that People have experienced across across business across supply chains in the wake of the crisis bottlenecks everywhere in everything feels like sometimes and of course one of those bottlenecks is in the labor market. Yeah exactly right like this. Is i would say the one other sort of like big thing that we we've yet to really talk about. Which is that numerous businesses largely in leisure and hospitality. But not just that area have voiced. I i don't know. Frustration is the word but have certainly found hiring to be much more difficult to be expected especially coming out of a downturn and even much more difficult than it was pre crisis at economists of all kinds of theories for why of but it's clearly a phenomenon of this environment that makes this moment Distinct and is posing challenges to various managers bosses and companies. Yes so. I'm obviously not in the state so i've sort of been watching this issue from afar. It's not such a big thing in hong kong. As far as i can tell. But i've seen some of the anecdotes about this like you know signs on the front of fast food restaurants saying that you can't open today because they don't have enough employees or some of their employees didn't show up i also know it's a very heated issue at the moment with you know it's sort of like a classic labor versus capital kind of issue at this point with a lot of the companies blaming workers and saying they don't wanna come back to work because they're afraid of getting cove it or because maybe they're getting unemployment benefits through the government and so they don't feel compelled to go to work and then the workers saying wow if you really want us to come back. Why don't you actually do something to encourage us and raise wages. I mean that's the obvious thing for them to do so. Yeah it it's an interesting one. And i'm very very intrigued about this particular issue and how it's playing out over in the states..

joe weisenthal tracy alloway tracy afar hong kong
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

02:07 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"So tracy obviously one of our big themes so far for the podcast and i guess for the economy overall has been the sort of like shortages and bottlenecks that People have experienced across across business across supply chains in the wake of the crisis bottlenecks everywhere in everything feels like sometimes and of course one of those bottlenecks is in the labor market. Yeah exactly right like this. Is i would say the one other sort of like big thing that we we've yet to really talk about. Which is that numerous businesses largely in leisure and hospitality. But not just that area have voiced. I i don't know. Frustration is the word but have certainly found hiring to be much more difficult to be expected especially coming out of a downturn and even much more difficult than it was pre crisis at economists of all kinds of theories for why of but it's clearly a phenomenon of this environment that makes this moment Distinct and is posing challenges to various managers bosses and companies. Yes so. I'm obviously not in the state so i've sort of been watching this issue from afar. It's not such a big thing in hong kong. As far as i can tell. But i've seen some of the anecdotes about this like you know signs on the front of fast food restaurants saying that you can't open today because they don't have enough employees or some of their employees didn't show up i also know it's a very heated issue at the moment with you know it's sort of like a classic labor versus capital kind of issue at this point with a lot of the companies blaming workers and saying they don't wanna come back to work because they're afraid of getting cove it or because maybe they're getting unemployment benefits through the government and so they don't feel compelled to go to work and then the workers saying wow if you really want us to come back. Why don't you actually do something to encourage us and raise wages. I mean that's the obvious thing for them to do

joe weisenthal tracy alloway tracy afar hong kong
US Businesses Struggle to Fill Jobs Even as Hiring Picks Up

Odd Lots

02:07 min | 1 year ago

US Businesses Struggle to Fill Jobs Even as Hiring Picks Up

"So tracy obviously one of our big themes so far for the podcast and i guess for the economy overall has been the sort of like shortages and bottlenecks that People have experienced across across business across supply chains in the wake of the crisis bottlenecks everywhere in everything feels like sometimes and of course one of those bottlenecks is in the labor market. Yeah exactly right like this. Is i would say the one other sort of like big thing that we we've yet to really talk about. Which is that numerous businesses largely in leisure and hospitality. But not just that area have voiced. I i don't know. Frustration is the word but have certainly found hiring to be much more difficult to be expected especially coming out of a downturn and even much more difficult than it was pre crisis at economists of all kinds of theories for why of but it's clearly a phenomenon of this environment that makes this moment Distinct and is posing challenges to various managers bosses and companies. Yes so. I'm obviously not in the state so i've sort of been watching this issue from afar. It's not such a big thing in hong kong. As far as i can tell. But i've seen some of the anecdotes about this like you know signs on the front of fast food restaurants saying that you can't open today because they don't have enough employees or some of their employees didn't show up i also know it's a very heated issue at the moment with you know it's sort of like a classic labor versus capital kind of issue at this point with a lot of the companies blaming workers and saying they don't wanna come back to work because they're afraid of getting cove it or because maybe they're getting unemployment benefits through the government and so they don't feel compelled to go to work and then the workers saying wow if you really want us to come back. Why don't you actually do something to encourage us and raise wages. I mean that's the obvious thing for them to do

Tracy Afar Hong Kong
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

05:42 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Emanate insights. Hello and welcome to another episode of the odd lots podcast. I'm tracy alloway joe. So joe i feel like we're definitely still working through the economic reverberations of the corona virus crisis. Right we've had this massive recovery but it still feels like there's further to go. I mean absolutely..

tracy alloway joe joe
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

05:40 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"So tracy you know. It's been obviously an incredible year for crypto overall for bitcoin for a bunch of things going on a theory defy an of tease etc. But i feel like in some sense. Some of the narrative enthusiasm has moved away from bitcoin. At least feels like in the last few months. Oh absolutely. I mean part of this i think part of this is because obviously you and i in financial journalism. We're talking with people who are in the financial industry quite a lot but it feels like the enthusiasm from traditional financial players. You know. I'm thinking bankers and traders that has squarely moved on to defy to things like a theory. Am to places where there seems to be a lot of innovation and a lot of changes happening around what you can actually do with technology and with a wider pool of crypto whereas like i gotta say the bitcoin maximalists. Sorry you got me going out but the big knots. Melissa are sort of like they've turned into like the gold bugs of the traditional market. Right like everyone kind of makes fun of them. A little bit They seem a little bit old fashioned and they're kind of just like watching while all this new stuff happens around them yet. Then def definitely seems like the popular narrative you know. Obviously there's a lot of adoption overall or interest in wall street. And i think the story is like yeah bitcoins cool. And it's a know it's a store of value and if you worry about inflation and buy it or if you're an emerging market it'll hedge against currency collapse or something like that believe you want to do anything that sort of like very familiar to people on wall street like trade derivatives or create things that resemble equity or debt or anything like that. Then they're all like super-hype done building on like a theory or solano or something like that like that is sort of like we're the zeitgeist is right now. I would say absolutely. I guess you could boil it down to an open. Question of whether or not crypto is sort of outgrowing bitcoin. And whether or not you can have this massive crypto slash finance ecosystem that's built on an asset that's ultimately supposed.

tracy Melissa solano
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

05:23 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Covered under these understanding of law. Tom so great to have you on odd lots. I feel like that. Lived up to the hype that you are going to be able to explain these things in a very clear way and i feel a lot smarter. Well i really appreciate.

Tom
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

03:44 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"Risks. And i think that That is probably has been the case if they become much larger and i think if in particular we have points of contact with the conventional financial system in particular with a conventional banking system. The not kind of assessment may need to be in may need to be reassessed but as long as the The activity is very much within the You know within this crypto sphere. Probably the dangers of financial instability. Probably going to be Going to be less this us. I think May have more to do with the usual kinds of conduct issues consumer protection And other conduct issues. So that's more the area of financial Regulators rather than central banks wearing the hat says as the guardians of the monetary system. But clearly. This is something that we need to be You need to be monitoring very closely. So i mentioned earlier that the bi says one of a number of economic institutions which has been writing about central bank digital currencies and in fact You're out with a new report this week as part of your Annual review it's called cbd's and opportunity for the monetary system. There's a bit in there that caught my eye and advance apologies any bitcoin maximalists who might be listening but The the exact quote was by. Now it's clear that crypto currencies are speculative assets rather than money and in many cases are used to facilitate money laundering ransomware attacks and other financial crimes. Bitcoin in particular has few redeeming public interest attributes when also considering it's wasteful energy footprint so that's pretty damning from the bs in my mind. Do you wanna perhaps walk us through your thinking around the original cryptocurrency bitcoin. And why it's not necessarily bowl to you're when it comes to wider central bank digital currencies. Tracy i think you've you've cooled the one paragraph on bitcoin in the pool so we'll hold on that i think so we were we. Were not gonna spend win spending that much time on on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in this report because the focus of the report is very much on. How can central digital currencies you know build on on the current payment system to to make it To make it better but the idea behind that particular paragraph was just to point out that That you know. Bitcoin isn't that much use transactions. It's it was a time when there was a discussion about whether this will that whether bitcoin would be used for transactions on a daily basis. I think that that debate. I think is probably closed. more about You know whether. Bitcoin conserve as Crypto acid as it were and an older focuses on. How much You know they can be pulled and sold using using a conventional money so that was the point that we will making you know. Of course we devoted a lot more space to this a couple of years ago when we wrote about cryptocurrencies. The and back. Then we pointed out that There were problems of scale ability problems of.

this week couple of years ago bank one one paragraph Tracy banks bitcoin
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

03:28 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"And i'm joe weisenthal joe. I feel like it's an interesting time to be central bank. I mean yeah it always is. But i think particularly interesting right now because the the scope of new challenges new economic conditions new forces on sort of like how banking and money and markets work. Lots of new stuff right now. Lots of a new territory. Yes so not. Only are central banks responding to an exceptionally unusual economic crisis in the form of a global pandemic which basically led to the shutdown of the entire economy last year. But they're not now Reacting sort of differently to the recovery. So for instance. We saw the fed coming in more hawkish than expected last week. But it's still on hold for the foreseeable future. You have brazil delivering successive rate hikes to deal with inflation. China's sort of winding down. Some of its easy monetary policies. The ecb hasn't even started tapering or even talking about tapering at this moment. In time so you have all these central banks sort of off and doing their own thing trying to respond to this very new environment. And in the meantime you also have some very interesting ideas floating around on the nature of money so sort of like the very fundamentals of being a central bank. Yeah that's true. I hadn't really thought about it Sort of those kind of crosswinds. You're absolutely right like Sort of like unprecedented. You know. i guess there's a sense in which the cova crisis hit everyone the same way at the same time basically like a kind of had this big shutout effect but the recovery is very different with different conditions. So it's like okay. Everyone turns off everything for a few months in our trying to turn it back on again. And some countries different fiscal policies. Some countries have had different trajectories of the virus itself. Some countries have like different underlying economic conditions that changed the nature of the recovery. So there's that and then you get the splintering of policy outcomes as you talk about plus again you know the the rise over the last year of differed thoughts about money particularly crypto currencies. We have The chinese digital currency which is like people talk about for a long time but does actually out. That's raising all kinds of new questions. So yes just numerous things all hitting at the same time. Yeah it's a lot for central bankers to wrap their heads around but We are going to try to do exactly that today. And we have the perfect person to discuss These broad themes with the for central banks and also how central banks are dealing with new approaches towards money including crypto currencies. We're going to be speaking with hyun song shin. He's the economic adviser and head of research at the bank for international settlements and also a previous thoughts guests. So y- thank you so much for coming on. It's really great to be back. So i guess just to begin with a wanted to zero in on the central bank digital currencies idea because it does feel like over the past year. This is an idea that is gaining a lot of momentum. We've seen a lot of banks Issue papers about it including the. Is one of the things i.

last year last week hyun song shin today one brazil ecb chinese past year China things bank
How Exiting the Pandemic Is Affecting Central Banks

Odd Lots

01:26 min | 1 year ago

How Exiting the Pandemic Is Affecting Central Banks

"Joe. I feel like it's an interesting time to be central bank. I mean yeah it always is. But i think particularly interesting right now because the the scope of new challenges new economic conditions new forces on sort of like how banking and money and markets work. Lots of new stuff right now. Lots of a new territory. Yes so not. Only are central banks responding to an exceptionally unusual economic crisis in the form of a global pandemic which basically led to the shutdown of the entire economy last year. But they're not now Reacting sort of differently to the recovery. So for instance. We saw the fed coming in more hawkish than expected last week. But it's still on hold for the foreseeable future. You have brazil delivering successive rate hikes to deal with inflation. China's sort of winding down. Some of its easy monetary policies. The ecb hasn't even started tapering or even talking about tapering at this moment. In time so you have all these central banks sort of off and doing their own thing trying to respond to this very new environment. And in the meantime you also have some very interesting ideas floating around on the nature of money so sort of like the very fundamentals of being a central

JOE FED Brazil ECB China
"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

Odd Lots

02:27 min | 1 year ago

"odd lots" Discussed on Odd Lots

"My understanding is that there's a lot of turnover among drivers too. So you know trucks might get worn out after three years. Drivers might get worn out in even less time and leave the industry altogether. Could you maybe describe. How desirable is being a truck driver as an occupation. At the moment so joe and i talked about how we both have this sort of romanticize view of it could you may be <hes>. Tell us what it's really like. And how it stacks up against the money that you're actually being paid to do it. At the moment the realities are quite different in your romanticized <unk>. Of the it is a tough job. So if you're an owner operator you'll make in this market because the demand is so high you quite well. You probably would net one hundred thousand dollars as a employee driver. You're probably going to be making about fifty five to sixty thousand dollars as an employee driver per year and you're going to be paid on a per mile basis. You're gonna you're gonna run your trot kurt or drive or work about fifty six hours on a given week. It's not a forty hour week. Actually working fifty six hours. But here's the reality is. You're not at home every single night. The vast majority of the driver attraction out and so while you may not be on duty that fifty six hours in a given week. You're you're still at a truck <unk>. You're still dealing with over the road. So it's it's a really. It creates a lot of strain on families <hes>. A lot of strain on people. It takes a special kind of person to want a life where they're out in the road. It's it's a job that's very dangerous is one of the most dangerous jobs in america. It's a job that has very a high occupational issues in terms of health. You're sitting in a truck for you know you're driving for eleven hours a day. You're sitting which you know drivers have high incidence of obesity diabetes so it's not a great lifestyle <hes>. And for all those reasons. It's not a desirable job for for a large percent of the population. And unfortunately the industry salaries have not kept up with a lot of the competitive industries which they compete for labor like warehousing construction other types of industries which sent a poll the same labor force

Amazon amazon Joe next decade fedex two carriers twenty years one hundred dollars a mile two thousand thirty five thous today twenty nine states puerto rotterdam twenty nine united states degel republican tommy highway one
What It's Really Like to Be a Truck Driver

Odd Lots

02:27 min | 1 year ago

What It's Really Like to Be a Truck Driver

"My understanding is that there's a lot of turnover among drivers too. So you know trucks might get worn out after three years. Drivers might get worn out in even less time and leave the industry altogether. Could you maybe describe. How desirable is being a truck driver as an occupation. At the moment so joe and i talked about how we both have this sort of romanticize view of it could you may be Tell us what it's really like. And how it stacks up against the money that you're actually being paid to do it. At the moment the realities are quite different in your romanticized Of the it is a tough job. So if you're an owner operator you'll make in this market because the demand is so high you quite well. You probably would net one hundred thousand dollars as a employee driver. You're probably going to be making about fifty five to sixty thousand dollars as an employee driver per year and you're going to be paid on a per mile basis. You're gonna you're gonna run your trot kurt or drive or work about fifty six hours on a given week. It's not a forty hour week. Actually working fifty six hours. But here's the reality is. You're not at home every single night. The vast majority of the driver attraction out and so while you may not be on duty that fifty six hours in a given week. You're you're still at a truck You're still dealing with over the road. So it's it's a really. It creates a lot of strain on families A lot of strain on people. It takes a special kind of person to want a life where they're out in the road. It's it's a job that's very dangerous is one of the most dangerous jobs in america. It's a job that has very a high occupational issues in terms of health. You're sitting in a truck for you know you're driving for eleven hours a day. You're sitting which you know drivers have high incidence of obesity diabetes so it's not a great lifestyle And for all those reasons. It's not a desirable job for for a large percent of the population. And unfortunately the industry salaries have not kept up with a lot of the competitive industries which they compete for labor like warehousing construction other types of industries which sent a poll the same labor force

JOE America Obesity Diabetes
Why the Trucking Industry Is Such a Mess

Odd Lots

02:04 min | 1 year ago

Why the Trucking Industry Is Such a Mess

"Going to be speaking with craig fuller. He is the founder and ceo of freight waves which Which is kind of like the bloomberg terminal for our transport could be said they cover Transport from a new perspective they also data all that stuff and he is going to tell us all about domestic truck industry. And how stuff gets around after. It's unloaded from the port. So craig thank you very much for joining us. Joe tracy great to be here craig so excited to talk to Obviously there's lots to cover and of course we're going to get into all of the supply chain messes that we're seeing right now but is always you know. It's sort of helps. I think it's especially true in trucking to talk about what the pre crisis environment look like. Because if i recall from seeing the reporting doors a lot of like very intense boom and bust cycles just in the last few years leading up to twenty twenty period where is very good period where it was week. How would you describe this. Sort of health of the industry pre-crisis so this is an industry that runs on very thin margins as if you take the industry average in terms of profitability typically goodyear. The industry will generate three percent gross profits so it is not an industry that is typically very profitable. There's a lot of very very few berries of entry and it's very cyclical industry and so it's reasons of when the market's good aguero costs go up significantly because the input costs go up and win. The market's really bad. Obviously revenue dries up with the economy is sputtering and so because all those reasons. It's a very second goal. I industry so as you mentioned over the past five years. We've had to freight recessions in the past five years and two big boom cycles and that was pre kohout

Craig Fuller Joe Tracy Craig Goodyear Kohout
Dan Ariely on How To Win Big by Betting on Human Capital

Odd Lots

02:17 min | 1 year ago

Dan Ariely on How To Win Big by Betting on Human Capital

"We're going to be speaking with den orioli his famous behavioral economist at duke university and he is also the co founder of a firm called irrational capital. This formed five years ago. And it pursues the idea of looking at a company's human capital factor as a as something that could drive out in an investment to. I don't even know. The human capital factor is. But i'm excited to hear Dan talk about it and what he's learned in five years dan. Thank you so much for coming on odd. Lots my pleasure to be here. Well first of all. I love the name irrational. I love the name irrational capital. It's perfect but i'm curious. What is the founding story of this the funding stories. I'm a university professor. I do research on few things but among them human motivation and in my academic career. I've from time to time. I go to company and i change things around by change bonuses. I tried to increase productivity. Tried to get people to care more about work in my my experience has been. It's always been very easy to come and improve what people do in increasing evasion because most companies. Just don't think about this very carefully if you think about age ourem. Hr is usually a function that is about legal issues in. I don't know training modules. Yeah but but it's not really a function that says let's just get the best out of people just think about. How do we motivate people. How do we get people to come happy to work. So i've been doing this for a long time and it's it's easy to do and it's it's it's helpful but when i met david my partner me whether i think that we could also look at something broader the consent of one company to time whether there's some way to look at companies see how they treat their employees how the employees feel about the company. And whether this could predict stock region. And i said i don't know what the answer. I don't know this the standard answer but we can try it out so we went on the hunt for data to see whether this hypothesis would albano not and it turns out it holds very

Den Orioli Irrational Capital Duke University DAN David Albano
Ever Given ship freed in the Suez Canal

Odd Lots

00:55 sec | 1 year ago

Ever Given ship freed in the Suez Canal

"Ever given ship. That was stuck in the suez for six days. As of right. Now we're recording this march. Twenty ninth New york time seven pm new york time has been a. It's been free. it's floating again. The thing that i really loved about. You know this very special week where we were all focused on this one. Containership stuck in a canal. Was that first of all. Everyone suddenly took an interest in global shipping and transport and global trade. Which is something that usually people don't necessarily think of that much or at least they don't think about how stuff actually gets to them. People think about global trade but not necessarily the infrastructure in the industry that kind of underpins it to last week was a really good one for everyone to sort of sit back and consider how globalization actually works and how the the flow of all these goods is actually affected.

New York
Why the Climate Change Discussion Needs a Markets Perspective

Odd Lots

01:50 min | 1 year ago

Why the Climate Change Discussion Needs a Markets Perspective

"Despite the fact that every bank in the world seems to be really high on. Espn right now. And certainly you. And i are on the receiving end of you know tons a press releases about what banks are doing in the space. You actually don't see that. Many people talk about climate change from a markets perspective which is kind of weird. Because if you think about the battle the climate change battle right now so much of it is about estimating the costs and the benefits or the cost versus the benefits of actually tackling this issue. And if you think about how you calculate cost and benefit. That's basically a market question right like you have to consider how the market is functioning and at what rate. The market is actually rewarding action. Any moment in time in order to come up with those kind of estimates yeah. I think that's right. I mean. I think this is where like i sort of like struggle with some of this. There is this widespread station of like ongoing. Environmental degradation potentially more economic and environmental catastrophes. Horrendous things That will happen. That may be associated with climate change on the other hand like from a market standpoint. It still seems as though for the most part most of the things that get priced whether we talk about priced in are more on the sort of like regulatory side a doesn't feel like there are many examples of the Of the the environmental risks directly themselves manifesting in price just yet more about pricing in the sort of regulatory response or policy respond to this sort of ongoing threat

Espn
Why Music Back Catalogs Have Become a Red-Hot Asset Class

Odd Lots

01:12 min | 1 year ago

Why Music Back Catalogs Have Become a Red-Hot Asset Class

"Sir tracy. We don't really talk about it that much on the show. But if there's one thing i know about you and your career you're very into sort of like weird asset classes weird incomes that get packaged and resold a lifelong fascination of yours. Yeah i guess. I guess you could. Broadly say i'm interested in the financial is ation of various assets but in recent years there have been some pretty amazing ones. I think one of the weird things about this. Is that nowadays when you hear it. It doesn't actually sound that weird but when these things were happening used a couple of years ago it was really strange so i remember for instance. There was a solar panel securitization a few years ago. Everyone thought that was nuts. 'cause bankers were securitising sunshine into an investable bond. But nowadays that seems very very normal and then some of the other ones that have come up our franchise rights and sort of a brand values from restaurants who had a bunch of those and The latest one that everyone is kind of going not sober is a music rights.

Sir Tracy
Zoltan Pozsar on What Just Happened with the Treasury Market

Odd Lots

05:46 min | 1 year ago

Zoltan Pozsar on What Just Happened with the Treasury Market

"So joe. it's well. There's been a bit of drama in the treasury market once again. Yeah i noticed. you've got to do one of your tracy. Loa signature things. Were you talk about a move. That happened that's supposed to happen. Like once. every three billion years yes I love talking about those because it really gives everyone the opportunity to show that they've read to books by saying that the world isn't normally distributed but of course out we did see some pretty big moves in the treasury market so first of all the ten year yield jumped up to one point six percent. This was in the last week of february but the really big move came in the five year. And i think that one had something like a seven or eight standard deviation. Move one of those things. That's supposed to happen in like ten million years kind of things and really i know people make fun of standard deviations in sigma events. But really we're talking about the world's most liquid market and stuff like this keeps this. Is i think the fourth big bout of treasury market chaos that we've had in just a couple years so i'm thinking back. We had one in What was it. september twenty nineteen. We had repo madness. Then we had the march joss in twenty twentieth delivered. Us t trades boeing up and then we had a mini rates blowout in october twenty twenty. And now we just had the most recent incident so something is going on and clearly. There is a persistent issue in the us treasury market. There's a lot of things going on at once these days because there seems to be ongoing structural issues questions about liquidity which is weird in a the world's most deep and liquid market and be a market in which the fed is actively supplying a lot of liquidity or very active in the market. And then of course it's interacting with the economic situation nine policy situation because we have this fed that said we're not going to raise rates until the economy hits these benchmarks. Everyone's watching to see the fed's credibility we also have a very rapidly improving economy. We have people warning about inflation for the first time so all kinds of things happening once but yes to your point the big action we've seen we've seen rates at the long end year. Thirty year yields have been rising for awhile since the middle of last year. But it's really the action at the shorter end at striking here. Yeah and of course one of the weird things about last week as you mentioned the economy but we had this big tantrum in bond year yields without a corresponding taper. I guess so. We kind of had a temper tantrum because not that much changed last week. We didn't have fed speakers talking about rates rising or anything like that but we have this huge move in the bond market so a lot of focus on micro structure at the moment a lot of focus on liquidity ease of trading and the overall or of the treasury market. And we have a perfect person to talk about all those things. We're going to be speaking with zoltin. Pose are from credit suisse. I care wait. Let's do it yeah So zoltin i should say in addition to being a strategist over credit. Suisse has also been on the thoughts podcast multiple times. So we will be getting you that tote bag Any day now zoltin. Thank you so much for coming on. Gotten thank you very much for having. I should say one more thing. Which is that every time. There's any volatility in the rates market. Someone ibiza. it says you guys gotta get zoltan on get. It happens every time. Anything takes higher on screen of like overnight funding rates. Whatever like when you have exultant back on the episode so this is a lot of requests for this one. Sorry go on okay. Well on that. No i mean why. Don't we start out with the big question. So every time. There's some sort of chaos in the rates market. Joe gets an ib asking for you to come on the show. There have been a lot of those over the past couple of years and as we were discussing that something you wouldn't necessarily expect for the world's must liquid market so what's going on here. And why do we keep getting these sort of Mini blow ups in rates. I think people get taken out of their positions all the time I mean just to just set the set the stage for the conversation. I think there's there's a number of things that are happening That has happened last week for a number of east now and really since the The democratic when and the blue sweep the treasury curve has been steepening quite remarkable. I mean relative to The slope of curves in germany and france and japan. You know the. Us treasury kirk has gotten quiet. Steve per a number of reasons you had you had The blue sweep. You have the vaccine rollouts. Which is you know happening in the us More rapidly perhaps in other parts of the world you have The market starting to price in recovery The market trying to price in the inpatient and the market is getting Excited about the idea. That book surely comes some fed action and that that is going to try to chase down version of keep it in check and to all of these things. I think have driven the steepening of the curb. But you know the the interesting thing. Is that the steepening of the curve. Has been fairly ordered. Okay and so what happened. Last week was a little bit plumbing related but again the the underlying structural driver of rising yields has been more fundamental.

Treasury Us Treasury FED Zoltin Boeing JOE Suisse Zoltan United States Kirk Germany France Japan Steve
Economist Scott Irwin: How Chinese Buying Is Causing a Boom in Agricultural Commodities

Odd Lots

03:44 min | 1 year ago

Economist Scott Irwin: How Chinese Buying Is Causing a Boom in Agricultural Commodities

"We're going to dive into the whole issue of food price inflation as well as the new dallying hog futures contract by poplar request. We're going to be speaking to scott irwin. He's an agricultural economist at the university of illinois scott. Welcome to the show be here. Cisco in addition to being an agricultural economist. You're also an actual farmer from iowa. Is that correct. Well try technically speaking. I don't actually get much tractor. Driving and physical participation but i. It's an interesting situation I from the landlord's side of my family's farm out niwa my eighty five year old mother and i provide the management and do all the marketing of the crops. So i lived through the epsom downs of the grain markets. Like everybody else plus a get to try to work the market with my card playing eighty five year old mother that sounds extremely satisfying. And fun right now. You know sort of mentioned this rally that we're seeing as pretty intense across various soft commodities agriculture commodities. What are you give us the sort of basic big picture of what's going on what's driving This bid china perfect is that is Sixty does the yeah. It's not the only factor of course but in the market that's the number one driving force we've seen a Justice explosion in a grain exports to china basically started about last july and as shown little signs of cooling off some of that related to their phase one trade agreement that was negotiated. A in the previous trump administration Some of it also related to rebuilding of their hog her because of the african swine fever and then some of it is also Related to just their desire to rebuild some of their reserve stocks as well. But that's so one thing. I always wondered about you. See these headlines that china is building up its grain reserves. And i don't know i i can kind of see. Why countries would do that. But i i always wonder how useful those reserves are over the long term and how they actually use them. Can you give us a sort of like potted summary of what building up reserves actually means well classic example of something a sounds good in theory and rarely works well in practice. We have many decades of experience with different kinds of reserve schemes. Here in the us They've tried it metals grains and all sorts of commodities soft commodities over the years so they're called buffer-stock. Ski seems and the problem. Is you know the idea. Is you build it. You know it's kind of the seven fat years seven lean years a biblical example put in practice and so that all sounds good in theory but it all becomes very political and Governments have tendency to not want to release the buffer stocks when they really ought to to You know maybe calm markets down because farmers are mad because you're driving the price down So it's just it's a deeply political and it rarely works as a well as it sounds in theory.

Scott Irwin University Of Illinois China Cisco Iowa Scott Fever United States
This Is How the World Ended up with a Shortage of Semiconductors

Odd Lots

04:32 min | 1 year ago

This Is How the World Ended up with a Shortage of Semiconductors

"Show tracy long time ago now feels like we had the joke about. Should we just turn this into a semiconductor podcast. Yes and you've you've really run with that joke okay. The thing is is he can't escape it like we keep things like know we liked. I started talking about is like this is like an interesting topic for us but it turns out little. Did we know when we first started covering this story on the podcast which i was last october last november that actually it would blow up into this huge issue. Semi conductor manufacturing became like essentially. Nash topic of national news. Far outside the sort of like the niche audience right. Semiconductors secretly rule. All our lives. And i'm i'm joking. Obviously but nowadays everything is so high tech that there are a lot of appliances that you wouldn't necessarily think of that have chips in them So smartphones computers things like that obviously but also lots of cars And i saw one headline float by. I haven't had a chance to read it yet but something about aluminum producer's warning of downturn So chips are everywhere. And i think were really starting to realize how important they are and also how important chipmakers are of course as we've been discussing there's a limited number of Right so anyone who sort of listened to our series. We started talking about the decline of intel. We talked about why. Us manufacturing in general is sort of Gone away and we talked of course about the dominant role of taiwan semi. And it's like almost like again. It was not intentional. But now there's like this huge thing and everyone is waking up to how dependent we all are on taiwan semiconductor and a few other major Fabs and it's a it's become a legit. Us national security question. We know the biden administration is looking at it and you know looking at different ways to reduce us dependent so we really can't get away from the story and obviously we're going to be talking about it again today and i bet it won't even be the last time we talk about it. Thank you might be right on that one. So i'm really excited because actually we're going to be Going back to our very first guest to Gave us sort of great overview. Some of the best Clear english descriptions of the challenges of chip manufacturing and it was the first one everyone should go back. And listen to that one. Then talking about the decline of intel. But we're going to zoom out a little bit and look at the acute that the world is facing right now. Why are so many companies struggling with their ability to source chips and then the longer term issue of this is scarce capacity is scarce and even if we get through this current phase there is going to be still this sort of perhaps a dangerous over reliance on a few manufacturers that our capacity limited so a very excited. We're going to be speaking again. Second time on the show. Stacey raskin his managing director senior analyst. Use semiconductors at bruce dean research Stacey thank you so much for coming back on lot at stake. Tastic be back. Thank you for having again. What's it like you know. You're like a star now. Because one point semiconductors were just like this thing that maybe investors mostly cared about but it really does feel like an you know. Correct me if i'm wrong but it really does feel like in the last few months. Everybody is now obsessed with this story. I think i may have mentioned this last time. I was on but i. There's one reason. I love this space. It's literally ground zero for everything that's been going on. And it's it's you know it's not just the last few months the trade and that briar s and then the the the burgeoning geopolitics and now obviously the shortages. And everything else like. It's and you remember. I mean like the global electronic like enterprise. I mean it's like a four or five trillion dollar industry worldwide. If you add up all the pc's and and and and all of the consumer electronics and then all the services and software and everything that goes with it trillions and trillions of dollars in it all rests on semiconductors semi's or the fundament of all of that like we don't have any of that without semiconductors and so i think it's a phenomenal place to to spend time and it's job security for me so that's yeah that's that's the most important

Biden Administration Taiwan Intel Tracy Nash Stacey Raskin Bruce Dean Research Stacey United States
A Value Manager on How Most Value Managers Are Getting It All Wrong

Odd Lots

05:27 min | 1 year ago

A Value Manager on How Most Value Managers Are Getting It All Wrong

"Tracy now one of the things that we discussed number of times in twenty twenty but also maybe before it just sort of the. I guess you'd say permanent state of crisis that you call it in so-called value investing. Yes it's it's certainly been a long running team has an and i feel like we've done quite a few episodes on it at this point up but twenty twenty didn't exactly turn things around for value investors either. No definitely not. And i think like there's really two strand. The tend to emerge in our conversations. And i i would characterize him as this one is that there is some cyclical element to value. Investing in this psychologist. Hasn't turned around yet. So it's like we have this sort of long multiple expansion kind of low growth fed driven economy that sort of creates this permanent bid for growth companies at the expense of value Week gdp growth cetera. Just like certain industries are going to thrive in that environment. And then i'd say the half. is that no. The problem is that we are not good at defining value in their people have sort of taken more accounting approach and say traditional measures of the stocks. Cheapness like say price to book value. Just these measures don't work in a world. where so much value is intangible right. This is the idea that as companies well the sort of successful companies nowadays are investing a lot. They're investing a lot in things like their brands. And other intangible assets that just aren't captured by price to book value and so a company that's positioning itself for a really good future performance. Might not actually look that way. If you're just glancing at something like price to book you know like it's sort of a joke and i think we've talked about it with on local mobilizing Last year woodard. But it's like you can rescue value investing if you call netflix value. Stocker if you call facebook values and someone would say okay. These companies don't have big like factories that can easily be measured. But if you could somehow put a number on the value of the facebook network as an asset then you could then you could theoretically imagine a world in which some traditional values screen facebook comes up right. I mean the thing that still makes me uncomfortable about value. Stocks is that you're you're still investing in something on the basis that the market has somehow mischaracterized. Its future which. I think you touched on this with your narratives but i think in the current environment where we talk a lot about flows based Investing a lot of momentum trading things like that it feels like the market is quite consistently directing capital to you know a few firms. And then it just keeps doing that and those firms overvalued in overvalued in overvalued and if you're not in that cycle i don't know i just feel like it's unlikely that you're going to get back in it and the longer it takes you to get in the more you're sort of losing out in terms of valuations but anyway sorry. I'm going on it. no no. it's great. I mean the other thing and i think it's sort of related to your point. Is you know it's nice to say like okay like there's some intangible value that we if we could only measure at netflix's or facebook or whatever it is but it seems hard to know in advance that it's there and so it's like okay if you have some like factory than you can say okay. This exists and historically speaking it will Project over the next ten years. It's going to throw this cash and that's a good value. It feels like a lot of these sort of like backing into the value approach. That it's very much easier to say. In retrospect or ex post facto. Oh this turned out to be a very valuable asset that they have which is sort of nice. I guess for maybe an intellectual standpoint but it doesn't really help you like pick stocks today which ultimately care about these discussions great to say okay to facebook network is worth a lot of money but you know. I wish you had told me that. Six years ago now but it does help Different investment companies. Come up with the different strategies factors to come up with different definitions of value. That always work when they're back tested against historical data right so i guess the question is that sarcasm is coming through on the podcast. But i gotta tracy the looking for is the approach that works in advance. That's not just back tested. And some you know some approach that can help us identify sort of deeply under a company undervalued companies today using some something whether it to metric whether to screen whether it's some other intangible measure something that doesn't just helpless rationalize the past but can you know help Help me Retire a few years earlier. Yeah and also maybe even explain why value investing as it's commonly understood has performed so badly For so long.

Facebook Tracy Netflix Woodard Stocker
How Monster Beverage Shares Soared a Monster 100,000% in the Last 20 Years

Odd Lots

03:19 min | 1 year ago

How Monster Beverage Shares Soared a Monster 100,000% in the Last 20 Years

"This has become one of your favorite companies. Not just because the story around bro. Culture is quite interesting right now. Lots of people are playing more video games. Were all stuck at home in. So maybe wanna drink more of this particular beverage while you're gaming but also because the returns on this one have just been absolutely stunning yet. Exactly right so. The company is a monster beverage. You've almost certainly seen them like at any deli or grocery store anything. They're known for their big cans of heavily. Caffeinated drinks sugary like super aggressive label labels on them. and it's like this sort of like very like macho. Frankly bro beverage and the stock has done phenomenally well but depending on exactly what Settings you use. it's it might be the single best performing stock in history or certainly over the last twenty or so years. I figured southlake eighty-five thousand percent over the last twenty years or one point it was like it's just unreal. We're talking like bitcoin level returns actually could probably put like bitcoin indie Etf to but we're talking like a bitcoin level returns for a company that sells a sh- sugary caffeinated beverages. Right and i think when most people think about the best performing stock of the past couple of decades they're going to think about amazon or google or apple or something like that. Not many people are gonna think about you. Know a consumer facing beverage company after. Tell you something. So i don't know much about monster I've never had one of the energy drinks. Although i am very aware of the branding and advertising strategy has been a big part of their success. And i'm sure we're going to get into that on the podcast. But i have to say in the course of doing some research for this episode. I found the most amazing anecdote on read it. Of course it came from read. It changes that perfect. What what what the anecdote. So i think it was on the financial independence retirement early board but it was some guy who said he invested ninety thousand dollars in monster energy drinks I think this was in two thousand ten. He posted and he said he'd invested five years ago so basically he had a five hundred percent increase on that ninety thousand dollar position which made him a millionaire in the space of five years and the best part of it was he wrote that in two thousand ten everyone on the message board basically said you are absolutely crazy. I can't believe you have this huge chunk. Appoint foley of your portfolio in a single stock. You need to sell it right now. And of course had he held onto it at. I don't even know what it would be worse now but like the big spike in monster energy came after two thousand ten so you can only imagine what ninety k. Invested back in two thousand five with look like after a fifteen year. A monster run in monster energy. It's really incredible. I mean it's like one of these charts where you just like slice it up. And you're like holy crap. These amazing returns and then you zoom out and looks even more amazing. It's just. It's just

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Cathie Wood Making Stock Picking Popular

Odd Lots

04:50 min | 1 year ago

Cathie Wood Making Stock Picking Popular

"So tracy here's something that i never thought i would see again so i i started following markets in the late nineties The dot com era and something that i never thought i would see again in my career after that ended was the superstar fund manager. Okay why is that. Well the actually totally true. What i mean is more the superstar stock picker because of course back. In the old days there are a lot of like star stock stock pickers fund managers. You know Peter lynch comes to mind some of the other tech investors back then but these days with et fs with online brokerages that make it really easy for individuals to buy stocks on their own. It really sort of seemed to me like that era had gone bright so i suppose there was this idea that the time of stock picking has come and gone and that if you want to make returns in the market you should just poor all your money into something like an s. and p. five hundred. Etf like a vs tax or something like that and just stick with it and don't bother trying to outperform the market because over a longer period of time. Even the best stock pickers had eventually underperformed. Right i think this mantra of don't try to pick stocks. A if you try to pick stocks. You're probably going to underperform the index and be if you come across a mutual fund or a fund manager. Who's good at picking stocks. Oh it's probably just luck it's not going to last too. You know even if even if there is someone who can beat the market. How are you going to know whether it's actually worth putting your money with them until like this idea that everyone should just index Trying to beat the market is kind of a lose lose proposition. It's really been drilled into people's heads. And i think like you know for years. They're really we just haven't had a sort of another new peter lynch or buffet. There's star quantum maybe some bond fund managers who are known but the idea of like someone who is just really associated with a great track record of picking individual stocks. Hasn't been a thing for a while and yet and yet a star stock picker emerges over the horizon. Yeah executive obviously that really That for the first time in a long time there is currently a fund manager a stock picker who is a mess and incredible track record an incredible following. And of course. We're talking about kathy. Would she is the ceo and chief. Investment officer of arc invest and there is a total fascination with our and this family of actively traded. Etf a phenomenally well in terms of returns but also ex Attracted an extraordinary amount of investor cash in the last couple of years right so the arche t fs. I mean i'm looking at their performance. They have five different semantic portfolios alone. Ch- that have basically doubled over the past year. Which is pretty amazing if you think about it. It's amazing enough for just one stock to double in price like that in just the space of twelve months but to do it across multiple is really remarkable and i think within their actual portfolio. There's a tiny tiny number of stocks that haven't risen recently. And i'm not even sure there are any actually. It's a really amazing. Performance is really sure to actually. I'm looking at the end of twenty twenty for twenty twenty their performance of a r k. Which is the sort of flagship innovation. Etf that arc has was up one hundred fifty two percent for the year Extraordinary returns and if you look at the holdings they're just all of the companies that have absolutely killed it in the real environment. Tesla is the biggest one but other names square. The payments company phenomenal roku huge winner. Zillow spotify tele doc. Which of course had an incredible year. Thanks to the rise of rome medicine and so forth so it is a Just extraordinary number of winners that this There's a fund and the related funds. There's a related fund for finance and Medicine that have That they've brought it. Just the triggers incredible. If anyone follows. Eric balchunas who's sort of bloomberg intelligence is etf analyst. I feel like three quarters of his tweets. These days are just about. How extraordinary this Family of funds and the performance of arc invest has been lately.

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How Galaxy Digital bridges the gap between the crypto and the institutional worlds

Odd Lots

03:26 min | 1 year ago

How Galaxy Digital bridges the gap between the crypto and the institutional worlds

"A very simple thing to ask you. Which is what is galaxy actually do. Because every time i see described. It's usually a really vague. Term like galaxy is an investment firm in crypto or galaxy. Works in the crypto industry. Never see a release specific description of it i. We're going to try to be much crystal player so we have four or five businesses. Did anyone to break it out. We have one business. Which is were you know or adventure shop direct investing and so we've invested in eighty companies. That are building out the crypto ecosystem from new protocols like one inch or luna token to exchanges to custody services so anything that has touched the crypto ecosystem or quite frankly the virtual world ecosystem we're investing in so we have a giant portfolio of of investments. We have inventory of bitcoin. Theory of another coins that i personally trade And so by at one is going down and settlers going up and so that's our principal activities. Then we have what you'd call a traditional sales let sales trading credits. We lend money to people that are participating in the space that's miners. That's that are just normal. Customers lending on margin we have a derivative business. Right were the second or third biggest a market maker in options and so you want to do structure product or sell calls against your position or by plus where there for institutions we have an asset management business where we take other people's money in raise it we have a bitcoin fund We have the bloomberg. Bitcoin crypto index We have a venture fund that focus on the virtual worlds stuff and we have an investment bank a group of people that have great domain expertise in the space and we'll give advice on mergers and acquisitions on on capela raziq and so and then we have a mining division right. We are minding our own crypto. And that's mining finance its mining derivatives in its us mining ourselves and so pretty broad and diversified it's been focused on institutions not retail. And so that was a painful position to be in until about april last year. With covid happened right. i said l. the 'institutions are coming in men. they were slow and then covert happened. And they went from walking at one mile an hour to trotting to sprinting. And now it's like ninety nine mph. You know just mad dash and so you've seen hedge funds insurance companies asset managers all entering the space since april and. That's why when we went through twenty. We went right to forty in bitcoin. Those institutions are mostly buying bitcoin. But the moment you make a little money in bitcoin yelich. What else is in this space. And you look into the theory amoeba system. And you're like wow that's pretty cool too. And so then. They're putting some money in theory and then the final spaces will wear the real disruptions to happen is in defy defy really simply put his taking a blockchain breeds in the financial system. Right it is creating driverless. Banks or driverless. Insurance companies are driverless derivative markets. And that while it still. I think in the sandbox right. It's still working out the kinks in beings. Lloyd it's growing so fast that you could see the guppies jump out of the sandbox and become frog's really

Galaxy Bloomberg United States Lloyd
The Story of How TSMC Came To Dominate the World

Odd Lots

04:57 min | 1 year ago

The Story of How TSMC Came To Dominate the World

"So obviously tracy. We've been talking a lot about chips lately. But for all the episodes we've done we haven't hit like what is sort of a. I guess i would say the elephant in the room or the gorilla in the room that keeps coming up over and over again. We've been going at a. I would say from a us perspective. Very focused on the trouble at intel. But we haven't really talked about the success story. That is taiwan. Semiconductor manufacturing company better known as t s emcee. Yeah exactly right so every episode that we do it sort of comes back to them. What a juggernaut. They've become and of course you know. The sort of basic story is that manufacturing chips is extremely hard It's extremely expensive. And it's very difficult to scale until Is one of the rare companies that designs and manufactures. Its own chips. But that for a lot of these companies that are sort of exploding ri- gaining market share there Having taiwan semi manufacture them and taiwan semi is getting extremely good or is extremely good at a manufacturing and maybe Pulling away from intel some extent in terms of its manufacturing capabilities. Right and i think they actually invented the foundry model which you know this idea of just manufacturing chips which keeps coming up over and over and over again in all of our conversations as one reason the entire semiconductor industry has changed and one reason why intel is struggling but the thing i find kind of amazing like in twenty twenty one. We all take it for granted. That tsmc is this massive player in the semiconductor industry in the world. Really but i find it really really noteworthy and you know somewhat surprising. In retrospect that what is a single company on an island has emerged to really dominate chips. That are now vital to all sorts of things so computers smartphones cars. Everything i think. Tsmc manufacturers little over half of the world's chips so it's not quite a monopoly but again like they are the juggernaut in the room as he put it absolutely. And it's such a. I mean it's such a pivotal company for a lot of reasons. I mean you mentioned cars. It was just a story this week recording this january twelfth by the way there was just a story this week about how car manufacturers around the world are actually running into supply constraints because they can't get chips because of the chip manufacturers decided to reduce their production of automotive chips during the crisis in the spring on the expectation that demand wasn't going to be there and now they haven't ramped up taiwan semi They're to actually reporting earnings. This week expected to be very strong. Earnings are soaring. stock is soaring. And then of course. Because it's in the strategic position end because taiwan itself is in this Uh strategic position obviously between the us and china and the roll over its status. It's just an incredibly central player and sort of necessary to understand the story right a big player in tech big player across multiple supply chains in a bunch of different industries. Uncertainly player geopolitics as well. So we really talk more time on semi and we have the perfect guest to do that. Someone who knows all about the company who's been covering them for a long time since long before they were the dominant player They are today. We're going to be speaking to copen. He is a tech columnist at bloomberg. Opinion has been with us a bloomberg for fifteen years and he's actually been covering The tech industry from taipei specifically for the last twenty one years Everything about Taiwan semiconductor where it came from this important player so tim thank you very much for joining us. Hey thanks time guys to talk to you tim. How would you describe the importance of taiwan semiconductor in the world right now well as you assess just saying they are so huge. Tracy pointed out the creates. Such a large share of the world saw chips. There's probably not a single device in the world that doesn't have. Tsmc somewhere but whether it's a car die. Fine of course famously. But even some really unimportant boring things like temperature sense. A hiya or some led lights array there. They do serve much of the waltz products. They're they're basically everywhere and so if that would've stopped production. Tomorrow i think the global technology industry would grind to a halt very very

Taiwan Intel Tsmc Tracy Copen United States TIM China Bloomberg Taipei
Why the Cost of Shipping Goods From China Is Suddenly Soaring

Odd Lots

03:09 min | 1 year ago

Why the Cost of Shipping Goods From China Is Suddenly Soaring

"So joe i have something to admit to you. Boy arrigo okay. I'm worried you're going to think less of me. There's no chairs of that. Just just home right tracy. So one of my long held ambitions in life is to travel via containership perfectly a long journey across the pacific. Yeah i think. I know someone who did that. I think i know someone who went from japan to the us as a traveler on a industrial Contender show yeah. It's something you can do. Or i should say you were able to do it before the global pandemic. I'm sure it's not allowed right now for many reasons Obviously you have restrictions on travel. You have border restrictions but the other big reason is that global shipping is kind of just a massive moment right that's related to the pandemic the supply chain disruptions. And of course they've been happening for about a year now but they don't seem to be Abating egg the general disruptions that we've seen i mean the world seems to be getting by and maybe we haven't had as severe shortages of things we might have feared last spring but are still all kinds of reports about how sort of messed up. Yeah and i think people were expecting it to get better so as you mentioned when the pandemic i started we saw a bunch of countries suddenly closed their borders and this meant that ships that were supposed to head somewhere and then head somewhere else were all sort of knocked out a place so it takes a long time to get them back into position and to get them on the routes that they're supposed to be going but now what we're seeing. Is that even almost a year on from the start of the pandemic at least in china. This problem seems to be getting worse. And i'm looking at a headline on bloomberg right now saying that surging. Shipping rates are new headwind for the global economy. So it's gotten so bad that we could actually feel an outsized economic impact from all of this. Yeah you know. It's funny like when when the crisis hit there. Were a lot of talk here in the us. About oh are we gonna start reassuring more of our manufacturing. We're gonna buy less from china over time and maybe that'll happen at some point. Who knows but in the meantime people are spending a lot on commerce. They're buying things. They're buying things from walmart. Dot com and amazon dot com and a lot of those things come from china so there is an extraordinary amount of demand for imports ship from china. I don't think there's as much going in the other direction. And i think that's sort of like part of the story. Is that although there's been this. Revival of economic activity is not the same patterns as it was before and so this sort of like equilibrium stability of global Global supply lines is has not been established yet.

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Cowen's Co-President on Why SPACs Are Having Such a Moment

Odd Lots

04:12 min | 1 year ago

Cowen's Co-President on Why SPACs Are Having Such a Moment

"Twenty twenty will obviously be remembered for a lot of things no doubt you know after the pandemic the all of the the political stuff that we saw the extraordinary sort of year in economics and the stock market and everything somewhere down the list. Maybe like down like fifty or seventy or ninetieth in terms of like the The things that people look back on i would say is kind of the year of the spac. Yeah certainly definitely if you're in capital markets is a year of this back and i think I'm trying to remember the latest numbers. But i think it was something like sixty billion dollars raised in twenty twenty which was more than the previous ten years combined. Yeah something like that right. So we've just seen this extraordinary surge for people who don't know the these vehicles where people buy into an ipo and then the company has some certain amount of time to then go out and actually acquire a company Bring it public subject to the approval of the people who bought into the ipo. We've seen a lot in the electric vehicle space. We've seen a lot and other technology other areas but just generally in a exploded and be you know once like many things in two thousand twenty not the type of thing. We expected to see in the first half of the year. I think like thinking back to march april. May we would not expect it to be such an extraordinary year in capital markets. Right and i think one of the reasons facts tend to draw a lot of attention. Is that most people are a lot of people associate them with these sort of pre two thousand eight financial crisis excesses so. There's this idea that there's so much money. Sloshing around in the system people are sort of desperate to put it to work so they'll just stick it into a blank check company not knowing what that company is eventually going to be just sort of hoping that their money will get deployed in one way or another so i think a lot of people look at it as another example of froth in the market but again as we discussed on a previous episode with someone who is actually running back. There's also an argument that this makes sense. The structure makes sense for a lot of companies in the market. Yes i think that's right for a lot of companies that make sense. And i think that's also a part of the change. Which is that. Not only were. I would say respects. Maybe associated with speculative excesses. I think they were associated with shady companies. That it's okay if you had a asset if you had a company that couldn't do the typical ipo route couldn't really withstand scrutiny. Maybe try to take it public. The spag and i figure it sort of like you know the they didn't leave a good Flavor taste in people's mouths and. I think that's changed and i think that one of the things that we saw this year is like more seeming. Higher quality assets came public that way more investors and banks with sort of a reputable or strong reputations willing to or eager to use this type of financing capital markets vehicle for this and. So maybe there are. They're shedding some of their previous reputation. Which was sort of not that these back stigma shedding this. That's well put shutting this back stigma. I mean we'll see. I mean who knows maybe twenty twenty-five we'll look back at the class of twenty twenty s bags and all have flobbed. There have been some flops. I mean like you know. Obviously not flops. But you know controversies. Nikola was very popular Spec that surged the moon for awhile and then all kinds of questions rose about its business and its ceo left. So there's still like a lots of questions about the type of companies coming public this way but it certainly a It does not seem to be going away anytime soon. Which means we need to learn more about Learn more about them.

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