20 Episode results for "Norwegian Government"
Norway sees a future in giant subterranean data centers
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by pinata for businesses. And universities Panatta was everything YouTube isn't with enterprise grade security Bilton recording and live streaming and a unique search engine that finds any words spoken in any video Panatta was how professionals share knowledge and by WordPress. Build the website that can turn your dreams into reality with WordPress dot com with powerful say building tools, thousands of themes and twenty four seven support from real experts. wordpresScom lets you launch site that's free to start and is built to grow. With you. Go to WordPress dot com slash APM. For fifteen percent off any new plan purchase. That's WordPress dot com slash APM. We come from the land of the ice and snow and giant subterranean data centers from American public media. This is marketplace tech demystifying the digital economy. I'm jed Kim in for. Molly would. As more and more devices, get connected to the internet's and as more people get devices the need for data storage is growing exponentially. Because the cloud doesn't actually exist in the air it lives on massive fleets of hard drives and servers where to situate. This hardware is a strategic question. You wanna place that secure has political stability? And if you're a tech company that wants to look good has lots of cheap renewable energy. That's why Norway is making a big push to get companies to build data centers. They're Microsoft announced plans for two Norwegian data centers last year. Katie Prescott is a BBC journalist who reported on this from Norway. She traveled far north to visit a data center in a former mine, I can describe it as I could Norwegian fairytale. It was like the entrance to a trolls cave inside a snowy mountain and we had to drive down into the data center a mile under the mountain into. This old mine, which they put serves in. It was totally bizarre to be in this tunnel of caves, and they described it as an underground town. So it had this enormous beautiful down the middle and then to left and right with the service, and because it was next to this fueled and under the ground, it meant that just kept very cool and very safe. I mean, you unlikely to get many spies creeping around the fault of Norway. And if you did you'd probably notice them, so the Norwegian government is incentivizing the construction of data centers with tax breaks. Why do they want these data centers so badly? Well, they come with a lot of money and the other very exciting thing about data centers. And I promise you can't get excited about sending we need them so much. I mean ninety percent of all the data in the woes created in the lost two years. So suddenly, we need a space to put all these things. And the Norwegian government is looking beyond the oil and gas that is currently the big driver of the economy that and. Thinking, right. What's going to be the next industry, and then looking at data, which is often cooled the new oil thinking, actually, you know, perhaps that is the feature does Norway's kind of out of the way location hinder pudding in the data centers there in many ways. No. But it depends what sort of data storing if you putting Facebook photos, it's if you're talking about data that we need to trade, for example in financial services. It's too far away. What's called the latency the distance the data's to travel is to fall, why did think it was really interesting while I was there those I met someone who said our next challenge is to dig fiber optic cables under the North Pole from Norway to Asia and the west coast merica, if you think how data travels from Europe at the moment, it goes from side to side, they will say if we can go under the North Pole. We can go direct, and that's going to increase the number of people who want to come to Norway to put. Data center here. Katie Prescott is a journalist for the BBC that catchy idea that data is the new oil. It's controvercial. Sure. It may get mind traded stockpiled become on data is clearly not something wherever going to run out of. Now for some related links. What's making undersea fiber optic cables? More of a possibility in the Arctic, our friend climate change and melting Arctic ice if Norway does go ahead with plans to route Beiber optic lines through the North Pole. It will join just a couple of projects in the works. It can read about the current state of subsidy telecom in my favorite, the maritime executive the Arctic is attractive because it isn't already crowded with cables, and there's less risk of damage from say a fishing net or boat anchor our own Peter Balan and Rosen explained on this program Finland's plans to connect with Asia. If you want a visual of what such a fiber optic line? Looks like Peter you had a picture of one. He describes it like thick black liquorice the width of a tug of war rope, which as a non lover of liquorice. I gotta say you as Katie mentioned Norway's interest in new data centers comes as it tries to get away. From an oil based economy Norway's also moving away from oil in its trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund is looking to offload about seven and a half billion dollars in shares in energy companies fossil fuels may have made the nation rich. But now they're seen as a future financial risk or to invest it. I don't know how about tack jed Kim. And that's marketplace tech. This is a PM. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by evident, providing a simple insecure platform that lets businesses confidently know who they're dealing with without the risk and expense of handling sensitive personal data from identity verifications to background checks and everything in between. Businesses of all sizes can get the answers they need securely in easily with evident. Visit evident ID dot com slash tech to sign up and start running verifications in minutes. That's evident ID dot com slash tech.
How Smart is your Smart Meter?
"In. Yes, it's Friday again already Friday, the twenty. Eighth of September. This is the sustainable futures report an I'm Asti day. Welcome to all my listeners. Welcome to my patrons around a special, welcome to the latest patron, Tom desimone, thanks, Tom, Tom popped across to patriot dot com slash SF'er and signed up to make a monthly contribution tools. My costs in hosting this podcast, your unique novel, sustainable futures report batch is in the postal abashed like that could be yours too. Smart is your smart meter this week. I'll tell you about my PHD research into smart meters and why I'm not doing it anymore. I did learn quarterback as I should explain later. OPEC tells us that they expect all production to rise dramatically in the next five years. So if that's true, I presume we can kiss goodbye to the Paris agreement. Why not avoid oil and by an electric car, we Audubon last week, unlike other electric car owners, we won't be taking it to the Middle East. Why would we listen all you'll find out. The answer to hating Bush homes, and indeed homes in other countries could lie in the coal lines, but it has nothing to do with coal. First of all, let's talk about sustainability and survival specifically about the survival of food plants on earth. Deep inside a mountain on the remote island in the spell barg archipelago halfway between mainland Norway and the North Pole lies the global seed vault while above the Arctic circle, it's a long-term seem storage facility built to stand the test of time and the challenge of natural or manmade disasters. To see volts represents the world's largest collection of crop diversity there on the only two thousand gene banks will see banks across the world, but this fell bad facility is the largest aren't designed to be the most secure. Apart from everything else. It is so cold there that everything can remain frozen without the need to energy. The vaults is one hundred meters within the mountainside in an area which is geologically stable and well above sea-level even if sea levels rise significantly. If there is an international disaster, for example, a disease which wipes is a particular crop across the world. There will always be seeds in the volts to allow crops to be replanted. The other purpose of this collection is to preserve plant diversity when agribusiness is focusing on crops are fewer and fewer varieties. Even in this article, -cation climate change makes its presence felt and ABC news reports to the permafrost is weakening and because more rain is falling than previously. Water is leaking into the access tunnel. The Norwegian government is spending seventeen million dollars in repairs. The seeds in the volt have never ever been at any kind of front said Maria Haga executive director of the global trust. One of three hundred is Asians that manage the volt. We had a bit of water in the tunnel leading into the rooms where we've had the seeds but far away from the seeds. Norwegian polar institute international director, Kim Holman said, the pace of climate change in the Arctic was dramatic. We all see temperatures going up the wintertime temperatures to mend Asli. We see less ice on the ocean, no Eissa toll on the fields where they should be. He said, we see snow melting earlier in the spring glasses, city ecosystems changing. If you talk climate is changing, please visit the Arctic. It is changing very much here consistently warming. The only explanation of my scientific understanding confined today is that it is due to human juice change of the atmosphere. Didn't I read somewhere that burning fossil fuels to emissions, which caused global warming and climate change a fossil fuels like oil. It's a bit worrying than to read a headline in the guardian. OPEC predicts massive rise in oil production over next five years. That referring to the latest report from OPEC, the organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the world oil and cloak twenty forty. What the report actually says is that demand for oil is expected to rise to one hundred four point five million barrels per day by twenty twenty three, which is an average growth of one point, two percent per annum. And that growth rate is declining. By twenty forty hour twenty two years from now demand is expected to rise slowly to one hundred. Eleven point seven million barrels per day. Hardly a massive rise over five years, but the total rise over the twenty three years. Twenty seventeen runs to fourteen point. Nine percent, much of this increases put down to the growth in transport. And while OPEC believes that electric vehicles would affect the demand for oil. They do not expect ease to account for more than thirteen percent of the global vehicle fleet by twenty forty. Any increase in oil use is worrying when the Paris agreement calls dramatic emissions reductions by twenty fifty. Increases can only be held back if governments take action and simply depressing demand by taxes. Oregon will be politically unacceptable to say the least we need leadership to promote alternative fuels and alternative transport models. But for the moment, politicians are both sides of the Atlantic seem to be consumed by other things and to consider that environmentalists issues own low priority. Talking of alternative transport. We ordered an electric car last week. It won't come until December annul teddy all about it. Then. This week city. I am reported that car sharing service Chiro which matches renters with car. Owners hopes to sign up many of the UK's thirty million cars offering launched to the general market on Tuesday Chiro is already established in the US where owners can list add calls, receive seventy five percent of the fees charged for each journey. Chiro takes care of the insurance and responsibility of any damage and says it prevents or renters. It's a great way to make money are an asset which may be essential. But since idle most of the time. Initially Chiro UK will concentrate on London, Calcio, pres, but aims to expand across the country. I was going to sign my car up until I found they wouldn't list anything over ten years old. My previous will be thirteen next month and even more economical than ever. If you like electric cars, maybe you should sign up for the global easy road trip in the UAE undermanned in January next year. The organizers say during previous events, we have had tesla, the Chevrolet bowl TV. That's the OPEL Ampera e. Europe and Renos Zoe. Every year we bring on new models that are available in the market, and we aim to have as many as possible. You will have a dedicated car which becomes your car for the road trip. You will drive this car. However, you will have many test drive opportunities of all the other cars regarding comp preferences. It's first come. First served book your seat now so that you can select which call you'd like. The full trip costs just under two thousand pounds with your flights on top. I come help thinking that the emissions from the flight, so the loan will probably wipe out the savings from any electric car you might have at home. Let me start a new away. Just go to all of us dot EV RT Middle East don't call. Do send us a postcard. Energy of course, is not just about trinity in twenty fifteen. The total primary energy demand in the UK was two hundred two point, five million tonnes of oil equivalent and some twenty nine percent of this was used for space heating. Almost all of that was generated directly or indirectly from fossil fuels. In fact, all fifty percent of all gas used in the UK is used for heating and since two thousand and all we have a net gas imports. Last week, I was an event in Leeds where I met professor John guidance of Dharam university. He explained to me how together with a system professor shows Adams and team. He was working on the potential of extracting heat from Jeff will results. His in theory, geothermal energy is available to everyone because wherever you are in the world, if you drill into the earth's crust, the further you go, the halter again's getting the out, requires a fluid to carry it. Water is ideal. One source of wool. Water is flooded coal mines of which there are many in the UK coal mines tend to be near communities, the foam mining communities, so that he's can be easily transferred into district heating systems. Of course, the water in coal mines is not typically boiling hot. In fact, it's only about forty to sixty degrees c, but a heat pump. Raise the temperature to useful levels. If I were writing on page, I would put in a sign panel to explain what district heating and heat bumps up on. You could ignore this if you know all ready. However, I count do this a podcast. So bear with me while I remind those who may have forgotten. District heating is very common in the US in Europe, and particularly in eastern Europe and Russia. Very hot water mains are laid in the streets and Spurs led off to each property in almost every UK house. There is an individual Boya, but every house in a district heating scheme has a heat exchanger. Rallo one radiator inside another, where the very hot water heats water for domestic taps showers and radiators. I read somewhere that the system worked so well in the former Soviet Union that the only way to control he's in mid winter was to. I've been the windows, I understand that control systems have since been improved and that now using quite a lot less energy. A heat pump works like a fridge. It extracts heat pumps it out via radiator. Put your hand down the back of your fridge. If you don't believe me a heat pump, could power district heating system by extracting heat from a flooded mine. Typically, officiency yields for to one. In other words, every kilowatt of energy put into running the pump yields four kilowatt hours of heat. On the block. There's a link to an article by the Durham team explaining all about this. They also published an article, keeping wool, a review of deep, geothermal potential of the UK. Which appeared in the proceedings of the institute of mechanical engineers parked ain't journal of power and energy. Here's a quotation from the abstract. The consequences are developing a substantial part of the UK's geothermal resorts are profound. The baseload heating that could be supplied from low and for PGN feminine energy would cause a dramatic fall in the UK's emissions of greenhouse gases, reduce the need, a separate energy stories required by the intimate renewables, wind and solar, and underpin a significant position of the nation's energy security for the full see it will feature so lessening the UK's dependence on imported oil and gas investment in indigenous energy supplies would also mean retention of wealth in the UK. I will monitor this important story and keep you informed of developments. How small is your smart meter earlier this year? I started researching PHD at the Leeds sustainability institute over leads packing university are subsequently withdrawn from the course for reasons explained later. But in the relatively short time that I spent on this assignments, I did find out quite a lot about smart meters. The UK has a plan to install fifty three million smart meters into domestic and commercial premises by the end of twenty twenty some thirteen million now in place the project speed in progress since twenty twelve. So the chances completion on time also mall. A smart metering system consists on Electricite meter gas meter, a communications hob, and the visual display. The communications hub sets up a wireless network, allowing it to communicate with the gas and electricity meters. It uses separate wireless communications to contact the eligibility supply network. The visual display shows near real time consumption of gas and electricity. Either separately combined. This could be shown as kilowatt-hours financial cost or carbon emissions created for now today this week, this month, all this year. The user can stuff about budget, but comparison and the display will show green, amber Allred symbols, depending on how much energy is being used. There are two principal benefits claims. Small litas. The first is that consumers will change their behavior in response to information from the data displayed. For example, if red lights show. It is expected that they will reduce consumption. I switch things off. In other markets, not widely in the UK present. There are variable tariffs for different times of day. Consumption at times of peak demand will be more expensive, more red lights. So consumers will be encouraged switch things off this house generators to balance the national load. It consumers do reduce consumption peak times than generators can reduce the number of expensive pass stations Aisling for hours on standby just to meet a peak which may last only minutes at the moment. However, there is scant evidence that consumers do Cup consumption when made aware of how much they using exception section to this was shown by study of uses of prepaid meters. Such people, of course, are used to making every penny count. The second benefit is to both the energy companies and the consumer by using the meters to monitor consumption remotely. There is no need or cost to send someone to the property to read the meter. This means an end to estimated bills and fewer Kohl's the customer service to dispute them, consumers receive bills promptly an accurately on the longest apprised by massive estimated bills issued because the meter reader could not get access. So so good. The vast majority of the thirty million meters installed so far are called Smith's one of ocean called Smith's to his just starting to roll out. But at this stage, they number only in the hundreds. The British government urges consumers to request a smart meter and to take back control of energy costs. Also just consumers to seek the best deal switch from supplanted supplant. Unfortunately, if a consumer has smacks one-meter most people have and switches suppliers. The Mehta goes, dum counts and days. Does that new supply which now has to send someone round to read the meter again. The visual display no longer knows what tariff applies so can no longer show the cost of energy or accept a budget consumption per day per week per month or per year una goes back as far as the date of the switch. This is not a problem with Smith's two meters, and there are plans to upgrade the software on this Mets one liters to solve switching problem, but no date is yet known. Consumers in the UK do not have to accept smart leaders. They have the right to refuse. This is probably a good idea given what happened in the Netherlands. The Dutch government made smart meters compulsory, but the Dutch committee for the protection of personal data, advised that this was likely to conflict with privacy laws and the consumer says, yes, you publish a report that the rollout of the meters could infringe the European conventional human rights. There was criticism of the specification of the natives from the Dutch applied research institute on the whole issue, became a metro hot public debate. The government was forced to accept amendment to the legislation, allowing citizens the right to refuse. There is opposition to smart me just for many reasons. Concerns include that marketing organizations could use the data to profile and target customers all that within a household. One individual could closely monitor the activities of others. Consumers have also claimed bug LA's in possession of the data could identify unoccupied properties. Stalkers could track their victims. Law enforcement agencies could detect illegal activities or vanity alibis, or is it who'll evening and the information could even be used in custody battles, all landlord, tenant disputes. How realistic this is to question the meters, do not send data to the central system in real time. It is typically stored and uploaded uploaded once per day. UK consumers can request that it is uploaded only once per month, data protection rules. Prohibit the use of the data for any reasons apart from billing and management of the power infrastructure. If criminals wanted to access real time data from a meter to determine whether or not a property was occupied, they would have to hack directly into the smart meter unpersuaded to it to release information which would which would then how to interpret. Sounds difficult to me. Pressure groups determined to stops Monday, just like stop, smart meters, dot org, don't you came, they're concerned about dangerous radiation. And in the US utility companies have been hit with multi-million dollar Tross action, lawsuits from people who have had the meters installed in that homes and claim that the damaging their health others are concerned about the technical aspects. I'm with our influenced by the power factor too technical term. You'll have to Google it and therefore over record an overcharge. There's also a worrying report the two senior officials in regulates off gem, the office for gas on 'electricity markets, raised concerns about problems, including the smart meter project and with threatened with imprisonment. They allege, they will bullied treated unfairly and sidelined to such an extent, they felt compelled to bring their grievances to an employment tribunal. They say they would told they would not be allowed to reveal to the tribunal or anyone else. The concerns that. One said specifically, I was told that if I told the truth, my career with Jim, won't be finished. All is clearly not well with a smart meter rohnert if I can find. No, I'll keep you posted. Finally. So why did I give up the PHD? I wanted to study white climate change deniers, getting more attention from policymakers. Then scientists with very fine research. It was pointed out to me that this was not an appropriate study for a PHD in any case would be impossible to verify. It became clear that I had misunderstood what a PHD is. It's a training in academic research, which happens to focus on a very small area in very great depth. The area I eventually chose was the issue smart metering. I've come to the conclusion that I didn't want to spend a further five years studying this because my interest to say much wider. I'm grateful to my supervisory team at Leeds Beckett university who educated me about the scope and purpose of the introduced me to academe rigor and explained about plagiarism research ethics. I've learned that was no, how an opinion only facts which are derived either from the peer reviewed research of others all from one's own research. Actually, there is one opinion you're allowed, which is that further research may be necessary in this field. So that's it. Yes, that's eight for another week. I must make clear the all stories in these stable futures report has certainly been assembled without academic rigor. The message then as seen on many investment, self-help sides is d. y. o. r. that's do your own research. And as always I provide links to my stories on the blog at all the ws, sustainable futures dot report to give you a starting point. I'm on day many Sang's to you for listening particular. Thanks to patrons, supporting special. Thanks to Tom to Simone, becoming author, latest patron. You too can be patron if you hop across to patriarch dot com slash SF. Aw, that's p. a. t. e. n. dot com. Slash SF. That was the sustainable futures revolt and they'll be another one next month. In fact, they'll probably be another one next week because it goes next Friday is the fifth toba between now and then enjoy everything you're doing. And if you have any ideas, suggestions or comments, contact me at mail at Anthony dash day dot com. As a special offer just before I finally go, I have a special offer for you. You remember that I reviewed Catherine Wijkman's book on these secretary communist time. She's offering a special twenty percent discount to sustainable futures report listeners to Kogan page dot com. The fulling to he's on the blow, but you can search for it and find it in it out and use the discount code. So killing twenty. That's all capitals. Circular twenty which shows me makes an even Chica Amazon. I'm not really is all by alone.
Will Boris disappoint the lockdown hawks in government?
"Coffeehouse Schultz is sponsored by. Look forward the podcast from Rathbun's what the future might look like find out more at rathbone. Look FORWARD DOT com. Hello and welcome to coffee shops and spent his daily and sometimes more than daily politics podcasts. I'm Katie Bulls and I'm joined by phrasing. Alston and James was safe another. We can lockdown. But this time we have news of the prime minister is beginning to take on a rope behind the scenes but it comes to government decisions. James reports that Boris Johnson met with summit Messinia members of his team on Friday. Does this mean that we now have a prime minister back in a walking row? I wouldn't go quite that far. The way someone govern insider described last night is that the prime minister is kind of is in play so edgy. He is beginning to make his views known on issues. Such as the lockdown. But I get would be wrong to think that he is back in any way of working at full pelt or full capacity. They know that David he comes back to physically comes back to Downing Street. People will expect that to be the case. I will see him begin to have more and more influence on government policy. But this is all part of. It's going to face return. Where initially he takes decisions that only he can take before of coming back gradually to more at the normal pace and he was walking out before this crisis hit Fraser. One of the one of the reasons Torri. Mp's very keen for the prime minister to get back in ten street when he is well enough to is the question of an exit strategy. At the moment we keep hearing an public ministers refusing to get into it. They say the focus should be on the peak on the number of fatalities and had to deal with that. But there's been lots of reports in over the past week of which ministers at which ministers hawks and yet today we're hearing that. The prime minister is someone who perhaps very cool shis when it comes to the easing of the lockdown. What's the current state of play behind the scenes? Well there is still a lot of frustration in the cabinets that there isn't an exit strategy that the so-called five tests for exiting lockdown. Are there mainly to disguise? The fact that there isn't really any tested. Told you can end all arbitrary. It all depends on judgments and judgments made by quite often scientific advisers. Who aren't opened proper scrutiny. Also feeling that only the prime minister can come and sort out this mess now. The Cabinet members who are keen to end lockdown sooner rather than later mindful of all the educational damages doing of all the social damage in health damage. Liked to think that they're over the water. Boris Johnson is going to come back and he will have the moral authority that daring the Brio to say okay. I want us to be one of the most liberal countries in the world. Let's look at what's happening with Sweden. They've managed to get a downward curve now without doing lockdown so so then imagine that he is going to be the end of of liberal rather than the thorns area and when it comes down to that particular spectrum so that's why reports today are going to be a bit disarming from them that he is worried about seconds surge in covert and to the answer to what by the way to go. The hawks is quite simple. If Brazil does unwind lockdown quickly and all the sudden we start to see a surge again and we ended up with a problem we thought we had avoided this time which is the number of am. Cova cases in intensive care spilling over into the NHA's nightingale units then. It's going to be devastating for the government's credibility devastating for Britain and devastating republic health. So this is the thing that they're terrified about being the first country in the world to actually have the second curve crisis because they were too hasty in resolving the first Kovic crisis so I got a feeling actually the Boris. Johnson is not as bold as lots of the hawks in the cabinet. Imagine him being right now. James how much this is driven by public opinion because one of the things that we keep hearing from those in government and number ten is the sense that given the public's support look down currently by such a high margin if anything you keep hearing that there's a percentage of the population that be happy for it to be tougher it would go against the grain of public opinion to even try and ease lockdown and in the future. It was this view which is very very very strongly the soon as you start talking about the lockdown. Then people stop obeying someone said to me the other day if we said it was going to be over in three weeks it would have been over in too because in the final week. People would assaulted CEO Wallets. It's all GonNa end any way in a few days so I'm going to play football with my friends kind of thing so I mean that is the difficulty I if there is there is a question. Which is they're all things will remembering is just on no good options in this circumstance there is no palatable way forward because every single option is so heavy with risk as. Fraser said it would be a massive blow to public confidence and business confidence and investor confidence if you ease restrictions and then have to slap them back on perhaps even more draconian -ly of and they currently are but at the same time. If is lockdown is extended again then the economic damage of it will become even more pronounced and the social damage of it will become more and also this whole problem of how you solve a healthcare issue which stems from the fact that people aren't turning up to see the doctors about other medical issues phrase. Let's talk about some of the costs of lockdown continuing today. Would it be well? This week marks the return of the summertime in schools but clearly people's home and we've had ever put today suggesting owner third people's Carney taking online lessons which just that right now. We potentially have lots of people just missing out on any form of education. Yeah I think that when we come to damage report of lockdown something which in my opinion still isn't being done with anything like the seriousness. It deserves the damage. The permanent damage done. To Children's education will come top list. Now we've been doing it with spectator daily. Couva deals where we send out to those subscribe lists of interesting things happening all over the world and on Friday. We reported a study by the Norwegian government. Which is the first country in the world to look at the WHO impacts of school closures? Not just on the diminished earning potential mother but the diminished career prospects and permanent damage the irreparable damage done especially the primary school children. Who are going to miss. Potentially weeks of learning for Norwegian actually work out. That's going to stymie their life. Chances Stymie their chances of getting could university and Stymie. They're earning potential. They even put a figure on it. Something like six hundred pounds for every week missed of school. Now you can say that. These figures are exaggerated and over the region. Study claims conservative. But you can't really deny the Oliver Studies into for example effective truancy. The effect on school strikes shows that while the colonies might get back together. Children never quite recover serious absence from from the classroom now. This is why we're quite struggle. We're going to be leading our covert email today on the study from a certain trust sharing just one in three children have taken part in any online learning at all and exactly as you might expect. Is the private educated and people from the better state schools that tends to be making the smoothest transition to online learning where it is the deprived children who most of all need education as a ladder up and out into society. They're the ones least likely to be given proper online facilities now. The the reason is quite easy is really difficult for teachers to turn on a dial into work out. How exactly ever going to switch to online? Learning the Norwegian study says look. Let's no pretend the IPAD any replacement for teachers and there's grades of it. If you're an undergraduate where a lot of your learning is done at home in the libraries anyway it would affect you as much as it will if you're a primary schools pupil especially when we have special educational needs or vulnerable kids. Who is really looking to your school as a way of gaining not just an education but it's all sorts of other broader societal impacts. That are being denied. This doesn't trust. Report is the first one in Britain to follow the Norwegian footsteps. And say let's look at the huge inequality of this lockdown because the private schools will be able to have the resources to go pretty quickly into online learning the state schools. Don't averse resort has they're gonNA struggle and the most deprived students the ones who basically benefit the most from face to face contact with teachers are going to be ones who suffer the most so there is a lot to be said about this and I'm delighted this trust to start to see it now. On the subject of current problems for the government to solve there was a report over the weekend in Sunday Times by the days. Left in the papers was to the government sleepwalking into disaster in terms of corona virus. The governor issued an Bentley rebuttal last night to a number of the claims in the piece but the general picture is the idea that the prime minister is not pay significant attention to corona virus. Needed it his ministers and missed five Cobra meetings James. How much problem is this? Report to? The government clearly irritated for government and the length of the rebuttal. Shows that the amount of phone traffic there was about it yesterday. Shows that too I have to. I think one of the things that we know is the rams indeed nor attend those five covering teams that was reported at the time. I think it is fair to say that he skipped them in the. I think the promises don't waste attend these meetings. I there is a very interesting question here which I've been one of the things that the inquiry will have to look at. Which is if Boris Johnson was northland's was not intended as Cobra meetings? But I think it's also fair to say that it wasn't like The government's scientific advisers all the civil service was saying kind of prominence. That please please got to come to these meetings. This is really important. I don't think there was a broader failure to get what was happening and I think that failure is reflected across much of the Western world. It is clear that South Korea for example and Singapore's from other countries have done better by most western countries have in dealing with this crisis. And so I think there is. There is a lot to be learned from those countries at the end of his person. But I've been trying to make this into kind of Ponti political issue or about. Boris Johnson. Personally is loving bit of a stretch. I I think one of the things I'm quite struck by is. How is a lot of idea of how? The government was so distracted by Brexit that it missed always signs on speaking to people inside the government machine. Or I think it's fair to say are not finds the Brexit and certainly not fans of a no deal brexit who admit for actually some of the new deal Brexit. Prep has actually been quite helpful in terms of making government. Think about supply chains which has been useful at this moment as global supply. Chains also disrupted by the US. Now what is the issue is up in the piece rates? Tpp AND FOR EXAMPLE. The fact that some are sent to China. The government have responded to this by saying that China have sent a lot higher quality actually back since but phrases. There is an ongoing issue. Isn't that because we we keep hearing that some hospitals are going to run out of Ganz Wien days. The government said that they were having a large delivery coming from Turkey. But this is recent problem at that. Perhaps an issue preannouncing something for arrives. So is this the week? We're going to start to see those scenes were. Nhs staff potentially refused to treat patients because they don't have the protective equipment. I actually don't think we're going to see any staff refusing to treat patients. I think you're former more likely to see the scenes that we've seen in other countries shameful scenes of healthcare workers dressing in things they made themselves like. Pancho's have been liners we've seen in other countries. I think the any chance staff with a tremendous track record in putting their own lives in line to help others to think that in England. They would have to do so wearing ponchos that we've seen people were in. Spain would be a reputational disaster for the government's but then again I'm not entirely sure it would come to that. We saw for example pictures of the weekend off. Scotland which is apparently well-stocked equipment. Because it's less badly hit by couvert taking receipt of a massive shipments from China of equipment. One of the lines that jumped out at me in the room and the government's rebuttal to the weekend press. Reports was the news that China has already sent England. Something like twelve million pieces of now. It was a pretty depressing this morning to Oliver Thousand. The culture secretary saying that. He's hoping that a flight from Turkey is going to take off and deliver these things. Go to England you. Hope that the government's better supply chains sorted out. I like to think there will be a solution to this problem. But is one which is pretty well-flagged I also by the we like to think that if Scotland has got a surplus of things then there might be some cross-border cooperation as well but then again there's a lot we didn't know about this. We don't know just wants to defend covers so many items. We're not sure what exactly is going to be a lack of how much even if there is a surplus in Scotland's so I think we'll have to see how it evolves vivid next couple of days. Thank you Fraser. Thank you James. And if he would like to sign up to our daily corona virus email go to www dot spectator dot co two E K forward sash. Kobe deal coffeehouse. Shots is sponsored by the wrath bones. Look Ford podcast. Joined the world's leading thinkers writers and scientists discussing the future of our ever changing world in the latest episode historian. Tom Holland talks broadcaster. Andrea Catherwood on the future of morality. Find out more at Rathbun's look forward dot com.
NPR News: 03-21-2020 3AM ET
"Live from NPR. News in Culver City. California I'm do a psycho towel. Bipartisan negotiations are expected to continue Saturday morning on a one trillion dollar economic. Plan to try and stabilize the US economy this as more than seventy million Americans across the country are home. Many not working as ordered by at least three states to try and avoid getting infected by the corona virus on Friday Senate Majority Leader Mitch. Mcconnell a Republican from Kentucky was hopeful to reach agreements with Democratic lawmakers. The goal is to reach agreement on each of the four components of the legislation by the end of the day senators. Here we're working and we're going to deliver. The bipartisan bills. Reportedly greater than the two thousand. Eight two thousand nine bank bailout and Stimulus Senate intelligence committee chairman. Richard Burr is facing criticism after. Npr reported that he told well-connected constituents three weeks ago about how bad he believed the Krona Virus Potomac would become a subsequent report from Propublica. Showed the senator dump stocks while telling the Public. The country was prepared for the health crisis. And PS TED. Mack has more public. Financial disclosures. Indicate that Senator Burr sold off between six hundred and twenty eight thousand dollars and one point. Seven million dollars worth of stock. On a Single Day February thirteenth burs office released a statement saying that he shared the public's concern about the economy but provided no additional explanation. Burr took steps to try and limit the fallout Friday morning in a personal statement. The senator said he relied on information from publicly available news reports in particular. Cnbc's reporting out of its Asia bureaus. He added that he understood. Quote the assumption many could make in hindsight and ask the Senate ethics committee to open a probe into his own conduct to Mac. Npr News Washington. The World Health Organization is continuing to offer extensive testing around the globe for the corona virus. Npr's Jason Bobbin reports the WHO says that even as health systems become overwhelmed with corona virus patients countries. You continue trying to identify who exactly is infected isolate those cases in quarantine contacts so the virus doesn't spread further. Mike Ryan the. Who's head of emergencies says? In many countries the opportunity remains to blunt the impact of this virus but he says some people are still downplaying. Its Severity. This is not normal. This isn't just a bad flu season. These are health systems that are collapsing under the pressure of too many cases even if the projected fatality rate for covert nineteen one percent Ryan notes that among elderly patients admitted to hospitals in Italy. It's currently twenty percent Jason Bobbie-ann. Npr News restricting travel over there. Busy shared borders. You are listening to. Npr News Country Music Legend. Kenny Rogers has died in a tweet from his official account. Statement says the Rogers family is sad to announce that he passed away late Friday in Georgia. He was eighty one years old as more states. Consider millions of its residents to stay home across the country. The number of people killed by the Krona virus. Globally is now over ten thousand in California. Governor Gavin newsom predicts more than half the state's population will become infected his deploying the National Guard to help with food distribution at foodbanks. Many volunteers have stopped going there fearing possible infection of the illness. The Norwegian government is it should be grounded emergency powers to circumvent current law due to the crow buyers pandemic TERI Schultz reports. There is huge outcry against the proposal. Norwegian prime minister earn a sober is promising citizens. Her government would not abuse the new emergency powers. At seeking the bill proposed Wednesday night would allow the government to set aside all existing laws except for the Constitution and human rights legislation and remove the need for parliamentary approval. The move has sparked a massive debate in the Norwegian. Press today with some lawyers arguing. It goes too far. Norway has imposed strict measures to try to curb the viruses spread. Citizens are banned from visiting their vacation homes in the mountains where the health facilities in the small communities would not be able to handle a major outbreak of Kovic nineteen. Violating quarantine can be punished with fines or even jail for NPR news. I'm Teri Schultz. And I'm Doin' hulley cycle tell. Npr knees in Culver City.
Tall Stories 128: Y-Block
"The. Imagine talk, you're listening to stories twenty four brought by the team behind the show all about the cities we live in this week. We head to Oslo to hear the story of a former government building cooled, the wipe locker due to twits shape. Its future has been left in limbo since two thousand eleven when it was hit by a car bomb during Norway's terrorist attacks. But as the city considers whether or not to demolish it, many are arguing in favor of his architectural value, especially because of the large mural on its Assad designed by public Picasso, intrigued, let him or is designer to Nolan. Giles. On a snowy winters day. Last year, I find myself trudging through Oslo city center. When I saw building of such a striking nature. I was halted in my tracks a curved concrete brutal structure. Some five stories, high wrapped its way around a quiet corner of the city centre with a nod to the nineteen fifties built UNESCO headquarters in Paris, and more than a hint of the busiest style thrown into the design makes a new. I was staring at a modernist marvel on close inspection. The meticulous detail of its architectural makeup became more parents. The concrete that clambered around wooden window frames was given warmth by a rich, pebble dash texture, and on one facade stood at giant fresco. In a simple line drawn style. It was unmistakably work of all work very much inspired by Pablo Picasso and it scaled writer into the sky. Humbled by my discovery at dash to my appointment with the Norwegian architect who revealed that. Indeed, the mural featuring local fisherman casting their nets into the sea was Picasso's and the building itself known as why blocker or why block was formerly part of The Hague's q. of the Norwegian government, an architectural masterpiece from the nation's modernist era by Arlington Victor. But why were the windows boarded up? I asked and where were the hordes of architecture appreciate is snapping its fine walls on their phones. And then I learned the tragic story of Vic Shas and Kosovo's masterpiece in two thousand eleven just one month after government. Consensus was reached to preserve the nineteen sixties building and its system building the hates block the car bomb attack that marked the start of the nation's most horrific terrorist incident ripped through the two buildings. All story around three thirty. Friday afternoon in Oslo Norway explosions from a car-bomb rock, several government buildings, including the offices of the prime minister, killing at least seven people and injuring dozens more. The bomb killed eight of the seventy seven people who were murdered in the bloodiest day in Norway's history. Since the second World War while both buildings were left structurally sounds security fears and the haunting memory of that day. A two of the reasons why the why block will soon meet the wrecking bowl as the Norwegian government plans to rebuild a new hedge on the sites, but many Oslo and far beyond a fighting back for the y block. And when you dig a little deeper into its architecture history, it's obvious why they're doing this. Despite those more conventionally minded seeing the building as a bit of a brute it's designed is in fact a true homage to the nature of Norway that pebble dash concrete. So warm in character was in fact a material pioneered by Vic, which he called his natural concrete and it features, thousands of small stones gathered from the nation's streams and rivers. The materials contrast against the sandblasted elements which would designed to be used as giant campuses for autistic works is so beautiful that when Picasso I saw pictures of the proposal, he dashed straight out to his garden elated to show his gardener just what could be achieved with concrete. It's a building of art and architecture and Victor even took reference from the storied stave churches of Norway in its design. These timber churches manage to be both marvelously ornate and practical in form and went Carter off the architect, how long his building was going to last. The reply was about one thousand years after all. Some of these stave timber churches are still standing despite being older than a thousand years. But while people like Siri Hume from the society for the preservation of Norwegian ancient monuments and other local action groups continue to raise awareness for this buildings, profound design plans to destroy it. Motorola heads that will be at least a concerted effort to somehow preserve the giant Picasso mural from the building. Yet this works real value was in bringing both artist and architect together to create something more powerful than both of disciplines could muster individually to simply chop the mural off the building and place it somewhere else as a monument would be a disservice to both, but Casio and fixture today, pressure mounts quickly on governments in reaction to terrorism to offer safe solutions citizens, and these decisions are not always the best ones for the city. The y block can no longer be seen as a safe building, but the debate surrounding its destruction points to one of the greatest challenges of our city. Manners those in office need to make us feel safe enough cities, but maintain urban fabrics that give us a sense of place, highlight history and promote the civic pride. We all crave. Listen to tool stories among twenty four production. I thanks to note in Jarl's for today's episode, remember to tune in every Thursday for the full thirty minutes. Addition of the. Good. Bye. Thank you listening. Explore the original brilliant hardback volume from the writers and editors behind monocle magazine. The monocle guide to cozy homes is available at a very special price exclusively for urban listeners to buy the book at half price, just twenty pounds plus postage visit monocle dot com. Slash urban est book offer. That's monocle dot com. Forward slash urban est book offer monocle keeping an eye and near on the world.
How lockdown threatens to widen the education gap
"This month the spectator the first magazine in history to print ten thousand issues. And we'd like to celebrate with you. Subscribe to The Spectator for twelve weeks for just twelve pounds. Plus we'll send you a bottle of commemorative spectator gin absolutely free. Go TO SPECTATOR. Dot Co dot. Uk Food Slash. Celebrate Special Saturday edition of Coffee. House shots on cables. This week offered in the week. When people's returned to school for the Fest Tab off the Easter Holiday instead parents having to get to grips of homeschooling as a corona virus lockdown goes on each child's experience will be different and for many a prolonged periods. As the classroom could bring many problems a study by the Sutton. Trust released earlier. This and that two thousand children have not taken part in online lessons during the look. Dan to discuss the findings. What ought to come next. Android by phrase Nelson and the Chief Executive of the session. Trust James Tanna. James could be stopped by to him about that study. I just mentioned what humane findings. Yeah so we've got a big concern while young people are not school. This attainment gap is going to widen between disadvantaged students. And everybody else. We know that when kids go on some holidays for example disadvantage kids off behind over the six weeks away than when they were before the holidays. And so we were interested in how online tuition remote learning is reaching these poor students. And is it doing some things to mitigate the impact of school closures and we found there were big inequalities in access to remote learning so that was in terms of the likelihood of poor students actually engaging in home learning or online learning in the first place but also the time they committed to it and also the quality of the work that teaches got back? Say if you're an independent school if you're an affluent state school you're much more likely to be engaging in a substantial way with the sort of online learning fraser. We often talk about the hidden costs of Lockton and it seems that education perhaps the gap is going to be one of those stories that increases as time goes on. What does the things in? The study was the fact that people's at private schools are more than twice as likely to receive daily on Nine shu-shen and do you think enough is being done to address at the moment. No muchly quite alarmed by how little research is going on here. It's like we assume that people who are working from home but first of all how many households are lucky enough to have a laptop per kid in this not very many will and also sort of tuition do you get. I've seen some private schools. That are giving pretty good tuition online. The forever less than twenty minutes speech by the Teacher. Kids get asked questions randomly throughout lesson to make sure they're paying attention whom work is scanned in a lot of to do that. Private schools have got resources. But then again you here. By contrast state schools where the day's lesson is just something on the website. Saying he go- kids. Here's your homework today. Good luck with it now. This isn't across the whole state sanctuary. This is just anecdotal but it's an example of just how much variance there can be in home schooling and online education between the schools. Kids have lots of resources to do well and the state schools who've never been in this situation before now of course hardly any teachers have been in this institution before this bit. Some of them are better equipped than others and my main concern here. Is that a lot of things that are going to come back after this lock down. The economy is going to recover probably quite quickly a lot of things going to be repaired to what we're seeing. Now is children losing irreplaceable days of education and there was a fascinating study done in by the Norwegian government where they pointed out that every day they miss. Now we'll take away something like hundred sixty euros off their lifetime. Earning potential this time. They're never going to get back and that's something. We should be worrying about a lot more. I think than we are James on that. We don't know when pupils are going to attend. Schools Summit will came about halftime. But do you think moving? He needs to be done about how to address what is going to be. Perhaps the education gap between those children who are more privileged in some ways in terms of the household. They're staying in right now and as you just said not getting that level of support. Yeah absolutely I mean I think what we do. The next few weeks or months is going to have a legacy for these young people for years to come. We're GONNA see wash through the education system in the economy. So I think trying to do something. Immediately to try to mitigate some of the issues that caused by school closures and then also think about. What can we do when school's Daego back whether that's gene September? Whenever it is to help these kids were already behind. Of course help them catch up and give them the extra resources they need. So they're not as far behind. I think we need to think very seriously about this. Because this phrase said there was this big gap between water. Presen- poor students are getting at home as from better off backgrounds of getting phrase there as I mentioned that that is quite love. Uncertainty right now is to lots of things and it comes to any return to normality. We've had the chief medical officer. Chris Witty suggests this week that social distancing will continue in some form that's quite significant form fully calendar years. So where do you think? Schools are in terms of cabinet view on importance of what should come fast. When it comes to you looked anything personally. I think Britain is going to be behind a lot of other countries in grasping the extent of the educational damage. We're inflicting on children right now. It merged yesterday for example. The Norwegian health advisor advised the government not to dispel the schools as a result of the virus. Because simply there isn't much evidence to show that doing so would significantly slew the virus in the government's pandemic planning that was also the assumption assured if a virus particularly affects children like the nineteen fifty seven fluted but this one's specifically seems to leave out children. There was even a study in France during there was a a guy who's young boy about nine years old who passed one hundred fifty people and didn't pass it on so children are not particularly susceptible to it. There's nothing disabled. They are particularly contagious. Either in carriers of disease and yet we are still disbanding the school's out of a reflex really with very little thought and when you look at the studies that have been done in this. This has been games time and time again for the last Hundred Years Studies have been done. Asking was the cost benefit analysis of disbanding schools. And each of these studies says that it doesn't make very much impact on the spread of a virus but it makes a lot of impact on the life. Chances of children and the majority of studies have shown that you need pretty extreme circumstances to deprive children off the education. Those circumstances are simply not met with corona virus. Children's should be going to school as the are in Sweden and as they are now doing in Denmark. And when lockdown ends resumption of school I think should be the very first thing that we do James undeserving but McCleary living in imperfect times when it comes to the options are available so I wanted. I mean we've had the BBC have come forward with some learning tools. Nick this stash in yesterday talking about people's might return to school but one thing that would have to be done potentially social distancing in a classroom is the best west case scenario right now. Do you think that the gap is likely to grow Canadian? Ready be dealt with when people's physically in a class or that of a things that can be done. Well I think the gap is going to grow and the question is. How can we make it grow as little as possible? I think more we all stuck with schools being out. It's not a hopeless situation. I think some of the evidence to show that remote learning can be as effective as face to face teaching. But the key is the quality of is not constant. It's not throwing the kitchen. Sink THE ISSUE. It's doing sort of tailored personalized lessons where there's actually an interaction. I think that's what we need to be able to support schools to do more in this environment but then as we look forward to when school's going back. I think we're going to have to be quite imaginative about how we're going to help. These kids catch up. Say we need to be looking at things like the staggered return to school? Which prioritises the poorest is there some role for some schools or some schemes Jordan July August. To help the poorest catch up. We may have to put in ongoing tutoring some of the most effective interventions medium term for these students as well. Because we're not going to be able to get over this in the matter of a few weeks or months. It's a year long more endeavor. I'm not sure that I would agree with staggered returned from school and the poorest. I think you should children should go back immediately. It was going to be staggering. It should be done by age. We knew for example that the damage at its worst amongst primary school children. Once you get to be in sixth form level more. You can do by yourself. I don't see why we should really be waiting. Also not quite sure how you would even judge the deprivation of schools to save. They can go back. And meanwhile other instant things that can be done. I think the schools inspectors for example should be moving quite quickly to ask. What kind of tuition is being given an online circumstances? What proportion of schools even primary schools operating my teacher out on video or having homework done every day there ought to be some basic guidelines. Because right now there is hardly anything. The most the inspectors said is that they're going to stop inspections and during the luxury of course they are but they should be moving very very quickly to be making clear. What's the minimum standard? Ought to be fraser just on the move vulnerable peoples. We're talking about not the government should say people's should go back to school but ultimately there is another issue here. Which is the government have actually been surprised at something you've written about. At a low level of uptake. In the sense that there are now a very small percentage of school population going to school and Actually Mukherjee could have moved people see would be categorized as vulnerable taking up the offer of going to school snap but then not so potentially that could be made him anymore interaction if there was a better way of targeting. Do you think you're originally. The government. Thought that twenty percent of children would still go to school as the children of key workers and also hugely unfortunately those categorized as being vulnerable in other words children who actually are at risk if they're kept at home as it turned out just two percent of children turned up. Now why is that? One of the reasons was that the schools are actually pointing out different guidance to the government a lot of schools were saying that you must only take your children to school in extreme circumstances. If there's absolutely no way you can educate them a home. That wasn't what the government was saying. The government was saying if you're a key worker. Please do send your children to school. But the government wasn't very clear either. The government should have said that is really important if you can send your children to school than do send your children to school now as a result you get the children when the school. What do they see? Do they get tuition a lot of them? The answer is not really get plunked into a room and given an IPAD and towards you get on with it themselves. Well this is a situation might as well do it at home. Induced a classroom. So again was lots of questions to be asked as to what education children of vulnerable and key workers should be guessing also special needs children as well a very difficult to give them the extra care they need online. So it's of the many things the government should be doing but the very minimum that should right now between what the intended to do in the first place? Which is to make sure. There's one in five children arguing back to school especially the children categorized as being vulnerable. Thank you phrase. Thank you James and while I have you here from those adults in lockdown who have perhaps beginning to feel the limits of the current setup. Do check out the latest episode of the Bulls. Podcast where I speak really wax. The comedian right to a mental health campaigner and that includes some lockdown tips.
Moving Cargo In The Arctic
"Warming temperatures in the Arctic mean transportation routes for cargo ships are slowly opening up that is something. Shipping companies are watching very closely but there are very few ports roads or railway links in the polar region. NPR's Jackie Northam visited a town two hundred fifty miles above the Arctic circle to meet a man trying to change that. And there you see this is the peninsula. It's called terminus about more than ten kilometers. Rafael looks out across a foggy. augie harbor towards a strip of rocky land jutting out from the Coast hearing cure keenness. He's the mayor of this town of three thousand people. In the far northeast Corner Noor of Norway close to the Russian border. Rafael Sen says cure keenness is known for its views of the northern lights. And for the hurt grooten. A popular wheeler coastal steamer. That meanders from here to Norway's fjords down to the southern town of Baragan very nice view especially in the summer when you have midnight sun is going down in the horizon. You can see the subtle four hours. There is no sun on this bleak frigid day. Most people looking out over this desolate solit- harbor would only see gray Arctic waters and ice but mayor Rafael Sen sees opportunity. This peninsula has the possibility to be a huge Arctic Elson wants to build a deep water port warming temperatures mean more cargo ships will be plowing the Arctic sea route between in Europe and Asia. Raphael says the goal right past Kirkenes. He also wants to build a rail line to neighboring Finland to move the cargo from the ships ships into Western Europe Solo Plan. Is that if you go ten trains from us every day and We should have about one million containers align would need buy in from the Norwegian government but Oslo has nixed the idea. A steady founder simply wouldn't be enough cargo to warrant the cost that's done little to dampen Rafaelson's enthusiasm born and bred and kickin this the balding square-shouldered bear is a diehard booster of his town so he started looking elsewhere for investors promoted it a lot in China and has been here to look at the possibility. They're interesting to see if this is possible. Rafael has visited China several times to meet with government officials and businessmen. His municipality signed a friendship agreement with the Chinese city of Harbin this year the annual winter festival was called Kirkenes. The world's northernmost China town the town was for stupid with Red Red Lanterns and the Chinese ambassador paid a visit but Rafael says not. Everyone in town was happy. With the festival's theme people agree now listening. That should not be Chinese. But it's engage people that's that's a Rafael since hopes to create a logistical hub has backing from some businessmen in the area area but Thomas Nielsen who covers Arctic issues for the independent Barents Observer. An online newspaper says he doesn't see cure knish as being the new Singapore thing apart from Norway is one of the biggest shipping nations in the world and not even ownership incompetent so looking to her kid. ICUS to invest in harbours Mark Line tain an associate professor of political science at Norway's University of Trump's. Oh doesn't think Rafaelson's plan is to far fetched. He says China has identified. The Arctic is an area of growing economic importance and wants to create a so-called polar silk road by developing shipping lanes investment vestment opportunities across the Arctic China has really starting to open to the possibility of expanded shipping throughout the Arctic. And it really shows that China wants to be taken seriously as an Arctic player. China is already sailing ships through Arctic waters. Rafael believes. It's only a matter of time before it want to be involved in a logistical hub. Jackie Northam N._p._R.. News Kickin us.
#651: The Salmon Taboo
"Just a quick note. Today's show, originally ran in two thousand fifteen. I didn't know in a sushi bar since I was a little kid. But in all that time, I have never been on the other side of the sushi bar. I've never been back with chefs stands last week. We made it back there, thanks to chef Tim out Ichikawa at the sushi restaurant drooled Baako in Manhattan. What's the most popular fishy? Cell. Fishy and tonight here. To now they've got lots of tuna second undo is and no under someone. The second most popular he's been a sushi chef for forty years or so. And as you'd expect he has served and eaten basically everything sea urchin. Of course. He's eaten sear poisonous blowfish. He's got a special license in Japan to prepare, poisonous blowfish. But in all his years as a sushi, chef he's never ever, had a single, byte of raw salmon. I'm not too soft on. Never I never eat on the someone. You know. So never you never even take one bite of raw Rossum. No. Can we get you to try it today? Tomato. Not that long ago. Everybody in Japan was, like Chicago. Nobody ate raw salmon. It was like eating raw pork or something. It just wasn't done, and then a few people halfway around the world. Launched a plan to change. Hello and welcome to planet money. I'm Jacob Goldstein. And I'm Jay today on the show. How hard could it be to get a nation of sushi livers to eat raw salmon pretty hard? Support for this podcast and the following message come from SimpliSafe home security who believes fear has no place in a place like home. That's why they made a completely wireless home security system that can be self installed in under an hour, simply safe's sensors are built to protect every points of access to your home, including doors, windows and garage more than three million people have already protected their home with SimpliSafe, get free shipping and a sixty day money back guarantee at SimpliSafe dot com slash planet money. There are so many different labels on food. These days organic non GMO, fair trade cage, free hand gathered. It's overwhelming, I sometimes jokingly referred to it as the nas- carring of our food life kit has a new episode making sense, the food labels. Find it and war by searching life kit, all guides in apple podcasts. When we talk about international trade, we oven didn't talk about things like tariffs and quotas. And there's this idea that if you get rid of those things get rid of those barriers than new products, just come rushing in across borders. But clearly that is not always the case, I mean, sometimes you have to spend years and years and years, working, and begging and trying to convince an entire country that whatever thing you have a lot of whatever thing you want to sell is something they should want to buy like take, for example, salmon in Norway. Hello Kushner, komo's the most is they can can you hear us the other day we were trying to connect to the studio in Trump's at on this little island in northern Norway. And we overheard them talking about us in Norwegian public rooms on motorcycle, new meals something. Mooney Mooney planet. Hello. Hello, says planet money. Translate as Mooney. Planet. Isn't that right? Yes. Yes. Yes. This is Bjorn eighty Olsen. And when we talked to him, the other day, he told us that back around the time he graduated from college. This was a few decades ago, Norway had a problem, the government has been subsidizing the Norwegian fishing industry for decades at basically, they'd been paying people to fish. And of course when you subsidize something you get more of it. It's not very clever way of using on because the more you use the worst situation gets they government says, okay? Let's wind down these subsidies, but we're not going to screw over our fishing industry. Let's figure out a way to get the rest of the world to buy our fish. They look around the world and they see one country in particular that really loves fish and that needs to start importing more fish. Yes. Japan at the time. Salmon sushi is not a thing not in Japan. Not in Norway short. It's cured or smoked, but a hunk of raw, salmon, no. And in fact, the idea of salmon sushi, just began as this tiny little little thing at the Norwegian embassy in Tokyo. They were just playing around with ways to serve Norwegian products in a Japanese style. They just try. Let's try to have a little bit solemn raw just into into embassy. Try that and shit funded ambassadors. This takes quite quite nice around this time. Bjorn gets hired by the Norwegian government to sell fish the Japanese he used to be a fisherman. He speaks Japanese. He's kind of the perfect guy for this mission any figures. Yeah. Sure. We could sell salmon cheap in Japan people in Japan already salmon grilled. But when people buy fish to use for sushi. They're willing to pay a lot more for it sometimes people pay five times as much for the same kind of fish, if it's going to be used for sushi. So if he can get people in Japan to eat salmon sushi. It'll make all that Norwegian salmon much more valuable. So Pierre goes to Tokyo. And he gets a bunch of Japanese fish industry, executives into a conference room, and he unveils the next big thing salmon sushi on this say, darkly over the table is impossible, we up on these do not eat some raw. Well, yes, but it's good. It tastes. Good. Now, they say it doesn't taste good. They say the color is wrong, also it's too. It's too larger should be rather, say it has a smell and also because the new the shape of the Solomon, and they said that the head has the Bronx, rape, and the Gillis look wrong. Everything is wrong. So everything wrong, everything the taste the smell the texture that the, the color, everything. What did you think when they said that this, this, this completely crazy because we we're Uman beings, we we're not chapel knees. But we, we have tastes than we have feeling in most, and it's delicious. And I think every Japanese also must. Feel the same as I do, of course, what you taste when you bite into something isn't just like a chemical reaction. It's not just the fundamental molecular properties of the thin, you're eating you taste all the baggage you're bringing to it. The more started to dig into the more, I became aware of the importance of percents Bjorn's big challenge was this. He was going to have to change the perception of an entire country of people people who thought the color or the shape of the head of salmon was all wrong. And if you want to change perception, if you want to get people to buy something what you do is not a mystery you launch an ad campaign, and so- Bjorn and his colleagues figured. All right, we'll start doing some TV commercials. Maybe have a cute cartoon character, did you have a mascot like a dancing salmon, or something we hug? But it was it was very silly was Weiqing a Viking. Yes. Yes, it was a Weiqing with a helmet. An and it was like funny drawing with. Big head. And it said in the weekend, seafood. He actually sent us a picture of the Viking of the mascot, and I have to say it's like if you were to imagine what some outsider trying to pander to Japanese audience would come up with. It's kind of that, right? Like it's this super cute. Little boy, Viking with this great big head and like big is a huge giant fork. Yeah. Like as tall as he is. And so the Viking surprise didn't work, partly, because there was this really bigger problem about getting Japanese people to eat raw salmon. And that was they were afraid that raw salmon had parasites people in Japan were used to eating this kind of salmon that tended to have parasites in it, and would make you sick. If you ate it raw Bjorn says the salmon from Norway was totally different parasites just weren't a problem, but it's not like Bjorn could just run an ad in Japan. That said, don't worry are salmon is parasite free with didn't want to mention it all because. If you if you said that my, my fish is has no poisoned than you say it's no pilot site is no is no bad things in it. So then people will associate that. Yeah. The first thing I'll think of if there, there's poison. Why do they say this? They keep saying this. So, so we didn't say that all we concentrate over information to consumers about the cold pure Norwegian seawater. And of course, just put putting the pictures of the fjords mountains is and traditional fishing boats. And then, then you gave the impression about something that is pure and fresh, pure and fresh not enough to get Japan to start eating raw salmon after years of ad campaigns. Norway's salmon still hadn't taken off in the Japanese sushi market, and the country's fish industry, the wholesalers or the supermarkets and distributors, they just wouldn't buy it, it didn't matter. Whether ordinary people were worried about parasites, or whether they loved the Viking mascot or hated the Viking mascot, if the big companies that controlled the fish business weren't convinced then salmon sushi wasn't going. Go anywhere in Japan and back in Norway there. No region. Salmon industry was getting desperate. The glut was getting so bad, that they start filling industrial sized freezers with tons, and tons of salmon Japanese wanted to buy some of that salmon, but not for sushi. They wanted to sell it cheap for grilling. There was not so confident that wanted to sell it on owed on the market for, for grilling cetera. And they said, no, we don't want it there. Buren says there was a lot of pressure for him to give up to just sell this to whoever would buy it. But he thought he just needed one big deal, one company, that would believe in his idea of salmon sushi in a minute. Bjorn gets a break. Support for NPR and the following message. Come from capital. One's business credit card, the spark cashcard offering unlimited two percent cashback on everything you buy for your business Capital One. What's in your wallet? Visit Capital, One dot com. For more information. When's the last time you had a really good workout? None of you vice apps. But if you'll brain I'm Sean Covey dot com. Host of hidden brain. Listen every week. And flex your mind. So Bjorn is trying to find somebody in Japan to buy into his dream of Japanese people eating raw salmon. And there was this one company called Nishi Ray that he'd been building a relationship with for years. Everybody in Japan knows this company, they're like Kraft, or Stouffer or something in this country. They sell frozen food. You know, dumplings chicken nuggets, squid Bjarne told them, I will sell you five thousand tons that frozen salmon for really cheap. All you have to do is sell it in the grocery stores as sushi. Just try it Nichirei said, yes, you're in how to deal. It was a day of happiness. I remember that on the. I mean being in heaven, if you see what I mean just the happiness. I mean that was shared you have a history of money, one hundred years of sushi consumption in Japan. And, and this Salman was not the part of it. There was a feeling of making history. Once need you race start selling salmon first sushi, the idea of salmon, sushi, just seems more normal somehow, it would be like, if I don't know if in this country say Dan, started selling yogurt with raw pork at the bottom. I mean, you know, look, think about it, this say, like I look at it and think, okay? Definitely not something I would have come up with, but I've been eating Dan yogurt. All my life never made me sick or anything. So, you know, whatever maybe I'll just throw one pork at the bottom in along with my strawberry. Banana my shopping cart pretty soon. Salmon sushi start showing up everywhere in Japan, especially in those conveyor belt sushi restaurants. Those kind of mid tier Applebee's of Japan almost everybody is trying, Russ Ammon. Tadashi Ono is a sushi. Chef he's fifty three. Now, the first time he tasted salmon sushi, it was about twenty years ago and it did not go. Well, it was good. Yes. So I couldn't need enjoy. It wasn't needed courteous about how it tastes. I was more thinking about home. I. I going to get sick. Oh, the kind of stuff he didn't get sick. And he wanted to understand why everybody was so into Ross Emmett. And so he kept trying it I, I was the single die, maybe third time. Okay. In slowly lie started liking it's actually know buttery creamy melt in your mouth. It's creamy and it melts in your mouth is that young, I it is in a way you know, it's very soft, meet this really is a testament. How malleable our tastes are our tastes in food tastes in fashion. Whatever. So does she know he told us there was a taboo against eating raw salmon? Ev even touching. You don't touch it. And then like a few days later, he's in love with it. It's like we imagine that we would never ever eat something or wear something. And then we do I'm very stubborn guy. So it's like if my mind is. It's hard to change. But you changed your mind in this case, I did why. Because the ingredients is good. Tadashi says salmon sushi is his teenage daughter's favorite, and she had no idea that it used to be taboo not long after the Nichirei deal Bjorn moved back to Norway a few years later. He was back in Tokyo visiting on business, and that was when he knew salmon sushi had made it one day he was walking around, and he noticed these little plastic sushi, replicas in the restaurant windows of then some sort of Solomon, though. Plus, the compass presented in the sushi shops. I could see our own in Tokyo. And then I thought this is really a breakthrough in the years since then, sushi has spread around the world. And Buren says he thinks salmon was a big part of that spread you know, it's, it's easy to eat. It's mild. It's fatty kids like it for sushi. Salmon is like a gateway fish. Though, doesn't want PC's. Okay. Just I think you should hit that. I I'm just one way. In very shocked. That was delicious. That was that was really, really good. And it's very simple. Tell us what you think of this show, numale planet money at NPR dot org or tweet at us at planet money. Planet money has an Email newsletter. It's once a week. It's short. It's a smart essay about economic ideas, this week, we looked at arguments over the best way to pay teachers, you can subscribe at NPR dot org slash planet. Money newsletter. Again, NPR dot org slash planet. Money newsletter special. Thanks today to Yuki Ghomi, a Japanese food writer in London. And to shift each Mura today's show is produced by Francis. Harlow the rerun was produced by Rachel Cohn. Darrien woods if you want to support planet money. Please recommend the show to a friend. This is NPR. I'm Jacob Goldstein. And I'm just Jiang. Thanks for listening.
News in Brief 2 May 2019
"This is the news in brief from the United Nations. A senior year NFL has warned that harsh drought conditions currently affecting southwest state in Somalia unlikely to trigger a major humanitarian crisis if version actions, not taken George Conway acting U N deputy special Representative for some Malia issued the warning while he was assessing the effects of the prolonged drought on vulnerable populations. In by doa, highlighting the underfunding of this year's humanitarian response plan. Currently only nineteen percent met. Mr. Conway said on Thursday. It would require strong advocacy with donor and financing partners to avoid a crisis and stop it. Increasing potentially over the edge into more disastrous conditions, according to the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs ocher drought conditions during the two thousand eighteen nineteen rainy season have led to an increase in the number of people designated food insecure since October of last year, Mr. Conway was accompanied by members of the Norwegian government's which is already supporting a number of projects in the region. Thursday is world Choon a day which serves. To highlight the importance of this valuable food resource to the marine ecosystem and the global economy says the Iran established just two years ago the day raises awareness about the importance of tuna, a staple of the seas and serves to promote more sustainable fishing practices, highlighting that junior and Tina like species are very important economically to all countries and a significant source of food the UN wants that Younus threatened by an overwhelming demand, especially for traditional canned tuna and Ashim and sushi confirming that approximately seven million tonnes of tuna landed yearly the UN food and Agriculture Organization FAO emphasizes the whole aquaculture sectors role in the cheating, the twenty thirty agenda for sustainable development in particular, sustainable development goal, fourteen to conserve the ocean and its resources and sticking with the global festival of action kicked off in Bonn, Germany on Thursday, aiming to inspire SDG campaigns to scale up and broaden the global movement and make the seventeen goals reality. Organized by the UN SDG action campaign the groundbreaking event runs until Saturday providing an interactive space to showcase the latest innovations, tools and approaches to SDG advocacy, bringing together more than fifteen hundred political decision-makers activists experts business leaders and creatives from over one hundred and thirty countries the festival is expected to motivate not only organizations, but also individuals in the push towards twenty thirty. My wells UN news.
Inside GitHub's Arctic Code Vault
"We've this Amazing Advisory Board of you know anthropologists and historians and linguists, and so forth, and one of the interesting things that they mentioned us which I found fascinating is that you look at existing archives of like the Renaissance and it's full lists of like that wealthy and important people almost all the men of course, because the fifteenth century you know these are the important books that should be preserved for therapy and apparently you know we have. So many of those we don't know what to do with them generally care about them what we really want from that era to really understand. How the air worked is ordinary people's shopping list in almost none of the survived because they were considered important at the time. So you know we thought it would be more democratic, more inclusive and also possibly more important and give them more complete view to be as broad as we could. Yeah. Isn't that amazing that what we're not after some official narrative right? We're we're after Snapshot View into the daily lives of the people or the things they were doing or what they were thinking during a time period to construe reconstruct our own view of what was going on at that time. Law is provided by fastly learn more at facet dot com. We move fast and fix things here change law because a roll bar check them out at robot I calm, and we're hosted on cloud servers and Leno Dot com slash change log. Deciding on a cloud provider is hard enough in figuring out pricing and projected costs that should just be easy and that's exactly why. Has Transparent and predictable pricing, and also an awesome pressing calculator that not only makes it easy to figure out your costs per month but it also compares that cost against Aws Google, cloud and also. So had a digital ocean dot com slash pricing slash calculator to play with the president calculator, and then had a deal dot co slash cheese two tribes version for free with the hundred dollar credit. Again, digital dot com slash pricing slash later the play with the president calculator in do dot co slash James Log to get your hundred dollars credit and play with. All right welcome back everyone. This is the change like a podcast featuring the hackers, the leaders and the innovators in the world software. I'm out of the Kovach editor in chief change log onto Daesh. Oh, Jerry went solo talk with John Evans about the archive program and how the preserving open source software for future generations on February second twenty twenty, this year John and his team of archivist took a snapshot of all of the active projects on get up and sent them to eat decommissioned coal mine in these all Archepelago we store for the next one, thousand years, and today we dig into the why in everything that makes that possible? John You have a long list of credentials and Experiences Urine Award winning author. Journalist. appeared in the Guardian wire tech crunch amongst others. Your world, traveler? visit over one hundred countries and you're a software engineer. Just, like one of the things doesn't fit in with the others, but maybe it does you tell me. It's kind of a weird grab bag. I mean the engineering came I. Did my degree of that and then set I wanted to go dancing around the world and then decided I wanted to write. So I used to describe myself as easily board which is. Kind of fit together. There's so took five years off to be a full time novelist and then returned to the warm embrace of the tech industry. Are you staying busier? You getting bored again or are you feeling? I'm staying pretty busy. I have a couple of different things I'm working on I am actually writing a novel so. We're all staying fairly endorse these days. So it's mostly interior projects weight version no doubt. No doubt. So back to writing your also the CTO of Happy Fun Corp, which is a software development and product agency works with startups and enterprises. But most Germane to this conversation, you're the founding director of the get hub archive program, which is exactly what we're here to talk about today. I would love to hear how this program started. The way it started for me was Nat Friedman the Sea of known for some years reached out to me. Saying he was interested in archiving software particularly open source software, which is you know get hub main I don't know but made focused but certainly main interest for net in myself and he wanted to look into the possibilities for that, and so we kicked around a couple of ideas and decided. That the best dude to actually go ahead and launch a program under the auspices of of it self. So I took a sabbatical from Happy Fun Corp Hfc came on to work fulltime get up on that last year. So Nat came to you why you why? John. E You have a history of archiving things. Are you friend of his? Why did he select you for this? Stuck with explicitly. But I think the notion was that he wanted someone with enough technical depth and background understand the nitty gritty of how actually to get all the code into whatever very long term storage we were talking about. Non. Process. But also you know sense of imagination and they willingness to work outside of the usual thinking and I guess the history of writing novels buzzing around the world spoke to that to some extent. So. He took a sabbatical and you decided well, we're going to archive this under the auspices of get hub, what were the first steps or like go find the coldest place on earth or get a file format down what your first steps with restrict. We're obviously to see what other people were doing in this area, which was actually super interesting. There's a project called the memory of mankind built on in a salt mine in Austria for instance, which is. Perhaps the oldest working mine in the world has been worked since probably three or four thousand. And they are writing down data to ceramic tablets and putting it in this ancient salt mine in the Alps and then the salt slowly moving accumulates over time, and so this is going to be sealed off by this giant slow wave of salt as a time capsule for future, which is a fascinating idea didn't really fit with what we're doing as it's hard to fit terabytes of code and ceramic tablets it turns out and also stealing stealing off a time capsule with a giant wall of salt isn't the most That was interesting there there's. The Art Project which is actually dropping copies various things on the moon is the plan to just crash land various archival facilities. Drives, and so forth onto the moon again very cool idea not super useful. In case you want to access it anytime in the near future or a whole bunch of possible futures, and then we found that there is a Norwegian company called pickle Pi Q. L. Little software joke for the relatively few who get a disproportionate number this podcast. which had just recently in cooperation with the government mining company owned by the Norwegian government. A vault beneath an Arctic mountains fall barred. That was obviously of some interest. So we proceed with them and it turned out that was going to be a pretty good fit, which is good because building an entire sort of you know. Elaborate superstructure apparatus for our cable is obviously a non trivial job. So it was someone else. They don't want that work for us. So that's ultimately where you all chose small barred archipelago. Have you been there personally or was it merely a satellite images? Yeah. Yeah. We went last year although I should probably mention that that was course. That's the most charismatic charismatic mega fun part of the archives thousand year part in that press the wacky out of the box thinking but there's also sort of more day to day prosaic ongoing. Programs that were doing with the Internet archive and the Library of Alexandria hopefully. Librarians and soft. We heard your foundation and so forth, and so we wound up being a much larger thing of our cutting on week to week month to month basis, and also the very, very long term Arctic mountain under the permafrost one. Right. So let's leave the permafrost for now and let's talk about some of these warm store. So you're GonNa have this warm to cold storage strategy where you have dailies weeklies or whatever it is. You can lay it out that go to these different places. So of course, like you said, the frozen Tundra is what gets all the press right and of course, it's the coolest part about it it it's like the video is not going to be of. The. Way Back machine but back, machines involved tell us about all the things you're doing to do the warm term storage and in fairness, the machine doesn't feel cool. I don't know if you've been there but One Cup of the way back machine sits in the ARCO headquarters in San Francisco, which is a former church, and they have these walls of hard drives in the back of the former church with little lights blinking whenever somebody archives them. So there it is cool. Certain dramatic effect goes on there but there's I mean part of archival is things available the people and in particular something like that, which is like A. Tool that people use and his critical aspects that people want to be able to access it's useful to have other backups that at their and so the Internet archive is currently sucking down a bunch of hub public repositories with the intensive making them available as get reposed on the way back machine. So you can you know points, your command line, t the Internet of Your L. and pulled down you're you're not package from there. If need being the future. So those are effectively get clones that are synchronized. And a larger perspective. So we were sort of inspired by Stewart brand long. Now Foundation, you may be familiar with they're the people who think that we have this may fly ish attitude towards history which one in fact history it turns out as a very large thing when they give the year, they preface it with zero to reinforce this. So we're in the year zero, two, zero, two zero right now. Which is sort of a fun. Little I, razor that they do he shows their perspective. Yes. Yeah. Exactly and brand this piece of pace layers of how certain aspects of a society or a civilization move very quickly and other aspects move quite slowly and it makes sense to sort of look things point of view, and so we kind of adopted that into archiving pace layers we have very very slow under the ice for thousand years, but we also have the sort of more dynamic faster. Let's grab changes as they occur several times a year. which sort of maps a software to you know? Obviously everything changing iterating but you still have your baseline of the tried and true technologist everyone uses and then you have the new stuff that people are you know playing around with and changes are coming thick and fast? Yeah. Exactly. So when you look at the way back, machines version is that effectively. Thing week-old thing how old are those snapshots synchronized in real time? Will they're working on a couple of test president right now, the objective is to get the snap shot several times a year. So you know it'd be never even more than three four months old. The actuality of that I mean, they're still working away on it, but they are very good at what they do. So that's our hope expectation and that's effectively a backup is the point of that. Disappears. At least we have way back machine. I mean get could disappear through some sort of BSD hacking rate like pieces of the Internet could vanish for a day. Ca someone with best because it's sort of BG. Peanut PSG. Insecure Protocal so nice to have that handy if for whatever reason, by P numbers aren't accessible in your country at that time that sort of thing and you know more generally it's useful to have another copy around. You can go back on the of that if needed, there's also G. H. Archive, which I, think it lives in big query is that right? We use it for our chains nightly newsletter which queries query. And it's the events that happened on but there's also source code involved in that as well as that part of the program or is that a separate project altogether? Affiliated with us, they predated the program that we were sort of reached out and tried to incorporate into that. There's them. There's also suffering heritage were doing much the same thing. In except they're trying to get all source code everywhere and keep it in one single of their own. They're based in in Russia in Paris and they have their own sort technology and scraping and so forth. So you know as with all backups, multiple copies you have it doesn't exist in three places it doesn't exist right? So that's the warm storage together G. Talk I associated you have the foundation which associated and then you have this long term, which is a snapshot you all did the Snapshot. February second twenty, twenty, I believe was this all public get Hubbard Hospital at the time or is it like you picked your favorites? Pick the most relevant repos? We talked about that very early on of whether, we wanted to be sort of editor of what we picked Joe's and we decided to avoid that to the extent possible of the. Yes. I mean, some of the reasons are obvious in the row are less. So we've this Amazing Advisory Board of you know anthropologists and historians, linguists, and so forth and one of the interesting things that they mentioned us. which is fantastic that you look at existing archives of the renaissance and it's full of lists of that wealthy and important people almost all the men of course, because the fittings entry, you know these are the important books that should be preserved for charity, and apparently we have somebody that we don't know what to do with generally care about them. What we really want from that era to really understand how the air worked is ordinary people's shopping lists in almost none of the survived because they were considered important at the time. So you know we thought it would be more democratic and more inclusive, and also possibly more important than give them more complete. View to be as broad as we could. Yeah. Isn't that amazing that what we're not after some official narrative right? We we're after his snapshot view into the daily lives of the people or the things they were doing or what they were thinking during a time period to consider reconstruct our own view of what was going on at that time. It's amazing. Yeah. Exactly and it's like if you're deciding what's important than you're passing judgment on what's important and maybe our judgment isn't so great. Maybe one, hundred, twenty, two years. Now they're going to look back and think what we really care. About are the hello word APPs the hello world stuff and where they came from what times. That was the most interesting things to us right now. So if you had public code on get hub. On February seconds of two, thousand twenty then you have code in this archive is that correct? Yeah I can prick Dan. For more detail. It was a little more complicated because we did have space restrictions so. Any repos with any commits of any kind regardless of how many stars or anything between the date of the program announced. That was universally nineteen. That was November I think, and the Snapshot Data in the eighty days before the snapshot and All of those reports were captured. So active projects somewhat active. Any repose with any stars at all and you can start your own report and of course, from the previous year before the Snapshot We all do don't we? Yes. Exactly. So. I've been snare mine I'm not gonNA live. So for the full year, anything with the commit for the full year before this was also taken and anything with more than two, hundred, fifty stirs regardless of commit date was captured. So if there's all stuff that the community thought was important, but you know hadn't been updated in some years, we grab that as well because we figure too if disturbed was a pretty significant. Indicator that somebody thought this was okay. Obviously, this is some level of judgment because we limited space, but we tried to keep to minimize that the extent possible and be as inclusive as we could with. Setting criteria. So let's talk about the space required then A. Snapshot how Big Was it in Layman's terms that we're gonNA Stanley terabytes pet abides whatever. twenty-one terabytes and that's compressed. It added up. And you know how much it would have been. If you were just said all public repose, even the old stale ones would have been ten x one, hundred x that. I don't really know we looked into a number like that's going to be more than we probably have space for. I. Don't Tennessee seems high to me but not super high that's gut feeling I. I don't really have the numbers of answer. There's. So when you say that we have space for, are you talking about terabytes or you talking about physical space in this vault? You'll have so much. Surface, area in their volume that you can fill is that correct? I mean, the volt is a former coal mine. So in terms of cubic meters or Keith feet, there's little terrier, very alert event space. Now, dennison stuff on earth right. Eight, but we had you know a limited amount of tapes that regenerating into one, hundred, eighty, six, I, think it turned out to be an each of those has a limitation of about one hundred and ten gigabytes which you know on the one has actually fairly for something which was written to like a visual format. But on the other hand, you know when you're accustomed to one terabyte USB sticks and so forth seems a little worrying and something you have to recalculate around. And so a quick number listener. If you're curious, do I have code in the e get Hub Arctic Vault just go to your profile. They've added now a badge for everybody who does And if you were active during that time period at all, then likely you do but you can be sure and they'll even list if you hover over that, they will list which repose a shortlist of the ones that you contributed to which yes. Do have code in the article. Very cool. When Adam and I we're looking at that because we started to notice this badge on some people's reposing we were thinking it was just Like if you contributed to ruby on rails, go programming language or N. P.. M. Or these very important repos than you might be a Arctic code vault contributor and then we both realized we were both Arctic contributor. So cool. So it must've been that because we aren't contributing to those large projects and it's very interesting to hear that that decision was made. I think it was a very wise to say if it's active. We're GONNA Snapshot Because of that's. SMART. For many reasons actually not everyone I've co workers it happy fun. Court feud do not have the badge because they're professional softer delivers, but they worked in private repos day in day out and so forth and I got a couple of comments like told us John could have mentioned that this was happening so. They missed the boat. Against the train or an airplane I don't know. What's up friends? When was the last time? You consider how much time your team is spending building in maintaining internal tolling, and I bet if you look at the way, your team spends his time. You're probably building maintain those tools way more you thought, and you probably shouldn't have to do that. I mean there is such a thing as real. Have you heard about Rachel yet? Company door. Dash brags plaid and even Amazon the US retail to build internal tools super fast, and the idea is that almost all internal tools the same. Tables drop downs, buttons, text inputs, search, and all this is very similar and retool gives you a point click drag and drop interface the makes super simple to build internal you is like that in hours not days so stop wasting your time and use retool check them out at retail dot com slash teams log again, retool dot com slash teams We were talking about storage format. And many of us have rain into the scenario where you think you back something up and then you wait a few years. and. You realize that there's nothing in the world that can read that anymore. Whether it's Betamax or it's been damaged CD. ROMS. are still out there, but you go hundred years in the future there may not be any. CD. Readers out there that will work. So I'm sure that was a huge consideration when you're trying to shoot for a thousand years absolute that format is super important. You. Run and that's one of the reasons of the archives to document things like file formats and so forth for the future, and fortunately, this is a thing which the format that we're using which sort of. Heard Microfilm as an oversimplification, but it's not see much oversimplification easily for because openly to just get basic information out of a piece of film, you need some source of lightens magnify magnifying. So each of those one hundred and eighty six reels is actually in and of itself, a self contained archive starts with human readable, visible sort of text and pictures explaining. In several languages, what is on the real and how to access as and how to make sense of its contents and an index of the things which are on it before to the more encoded sort of Qr code ish visual data including the. Manual. Yes. What's the physical medium? The physical medium is a silver haloed on polyester film which the. Rates for five hundred years but pickle has special hardened film which they Norwegian military has done some initial tests with in A. Should be longer than that big things. It could be good for up to two thousand years were saying a thousand years. You know what seems like a reasonable abundance of caution, right? Yeah. How do they do that? You know this thing last two, thousand years we've tested it for three months. Artificial testing sort of flick heat treating in the other forms. But to an extent, the only way obviously, you can actually test or something last for a thousand years is to leave it at for years that said I mean as the will tell you this stuff silver-haired polyester is widely considered. Be One of the most stable formats Iran is going to be going anywhere anytime soon, particularly stored and these are in boxes and the boxes limited film and the aluminum films in steel vaults in the vault columbine in the coal mines Arctic Mountain. It's seems pretty condition. Yes we we'd like to think so. Until a meteor hits that mounted that particular mountain. Well, there, there's actually another backup. We're taking a couple of reels with the fifteen thousand most starred repos on get hub, and also a random sampling of just all other reports because we still wanted to include some of the. Democratic everyone thing even in the super on the greatest hits versions and we're going to give those to libraries. So were intending to give those to various you know. More traditional archives and libraries and other locations around the world, and that's interesting because I did read from some of your marketing copy. You say this This protects the price knowledge by storing multiple copies on an ongoing basis across various data formats and locations, and I was like an locations. So I thought maybe this Arctic storage vault is just the first of multiple locations but is that referring to like the way back machine and these other libraries or do you think you'll say well, we got one an art in the Arctic. How about the Antarctic about the equator that'd be a bad place but we'll yes to all of those, maybe we don't really have a fixed. You know formal plan for the next step. Shot but I personally expect that there is going to be an ex snapshot. You know five years from now maybe working with the project silica, which is this kind of amazing Microsoft Research Project that uses Fem to second lasers and five d polarized light technology to story number of data on quite small platters of glass. So that's a possible format of the future that's theoretically good for ten years because of the fascinating is good enough. We have to yet, but it's a little uncertain what neck snapshots will look like. But the general idea is that another way to get redundancy is to have multiple snapshots in multiple different locations. So, potentially more locations coming what was the process to get them out to this particular place? You mentioned it was second twenty, twenty snapshot taken yet one, hundred, eighty, six sls put in boxes were these just. Slap, a Fedex shipping label on them or how do you get him up there? Originally we were going to go with them, and in fact we went we being a small small team of people went last year to sort of investigate the site put an initial real with six thousand repos in. A. Proof of concept pair for the announcement that sort of thing. So we did get a small bar, go to the coal mine and so forth, and the plan was to return for the extra deposit this year. But then the pinch democ broke, which as you might imagine, kind of confused the whole international logistics per of operation. Fortunately pickle is based in Norway and Norwegians at the time only Norwegians could go to solve art, which is still covid free. By the way, there's not been a single case and it's famously quasi illegal to die on small birds. So that's good. Quasi illegal to dive please unpack that tell me what that even means. I think this is kind of an apocryphal maybe a too good to check kind of story but they don't really have any facilities for for death on fall break. You know there's no mortgage bury anyone in the permafrost and so forth and said only when there's a serious medical condition, you get back to the mainland one way or another that's hilarious. But interesting. So in this particular case. In partners wrote the data to film and then they're Swoboda's mark sensible than people might think it until recent drawing significant tourist destination in their flights there a couple times a week still. So it flew in the belly of the twice weekly flight to spell bars on this I think roughly the size of a Toyota Prius for some reason, the unit, the volume unit we started using. The archive is about the size of a press. They basically packed this pre us into the belly of accuster playing the flute up to small barred, and then sent it up to the mind himself, which is actually not far above the airport. So kind of overlook the runway, how many people live up there three thousand it's variable because there's a university there and so they're sort of an occasional university population but three thousand things a bit right. It's certainly by far given its latitudes the largest thing. North of seventy degrees. You can't die there but could you visit the mine and you know see the boxes or at least a sign that says, get hub lives here or something that you can visit the mind the full itself is locked and sealed off but believe they do run loose. They were running tours to the mine itself. So you can reasonably close similarly the famous global seed bank is right around the corner. You can walk from where the other it's been a mile distance between the two. From the mind to the bank and vice versa, you could do to for survival tourist destination familiar with the seed bank as. A bunch of seeds for things, the global scene. So every country has a seat bank to sort of maintain seeds of the various agricultural plants that they used, and then the global seed vault is the backup to the backup for the seat banks and it has the superior dramatic wedge shaped building. Bird. Yeah I have seen the picture of that building. Very cool. So there's no you can't do any bug fixes though so you can't go up there extract your code fix something real quick because that's that's an history for every. Now I'm sure I have bugs in their definitely do. Fixed when I actually thought. The little tape Lewis. No Eternal. There's so yeah there's one of my personal repos the gut happened to get captured up there. I guess that's part of the appeal. To look back and think you know in these ANTICI. Today's of software developments still had folks. They didn't have a are of Mickley fixed them other working how fascinating something like that and I think we don't know who this jared Santa fell is but he was A. A real bad programmer. Well speaking of that I, guess can you opt out? Can you say yeah, not for me this code is just as public, but I don't want to be in perpetuity you can opt out Utecht you could between the announcement and the Snapshot We very, very few up requests forget how many but it was. Fingers of one hand something like that. But it is possible and there's an option on your settings Beijing get up somewhere. Now to opt out I don't think it's I. Think most people are mostly opted. They like the idea of their stuff going into the future and the idea of the broader perspective of capturing you know not just the open source which society relies. So that's obviously crucial as well. Isn't that president may be of. medium-term practical use, but being part of this big capture of not just software but kind of the tech community in June extent a way of life that is being snapshot and put up there. Would you imagine somebody finding this or unpacking it a thousand years from now? What would they do this archive? Would they? Read the code and try to figure out what we were like where they try to run the code executed or they are they trying to restore from backup because something crazy what do you imagine i? Mean we've we've talked about this a lot. I think the most likely thing that it's Going to be primarily historic value I think people might try and run the code again especially, if there are since there are some games there of the in America if you can go to the back machine right now or at least at Oregon, play the initial Prince of Persia for instance, which is very popular in I. Think you know the eight bits. became a word of weird aesthetic not SALONGO. People will want sort of craft emulators of today's. indicated computers and run software used to be in the old days in the same way I don't know. People builds nineteenth century trained setzer mock transit's Day. There's also the possibility that. This'll. Be Useful. Thing that people don't realize necessarily that sufferers surprisingly ephemeral like it's all on hard drives hard drives don't last that long. You know like years maybe decades backup tapes also good for decades and over the long run we kind of expect everything to get copies next door medium and the next storage medium and so forth and probably most of it will but also you're. They're going to have losses along the way. So easy to envision some of industrial software that suddenly you know something vital has been running on for the last forty years anyone noticing suddenly we need to patch or some data format that suddenly important for some high profile legal cases something that we need to be able to access that sort of thing and someone going back and saying we where's that code from twenty seventeen describing this obscure data format that looks good idea at the time for about two years in the. Small bars. Victory. The begin an Indiana Jones movie. Right? He's got to go to. Find the thing I mean could be sort of a resent a stone if there were other code that was found that they did know how to interpret it how to execute it because this has those instructions that maybe there's a opportunity there to find the run time that that ran against her. Fixed that dependency problem K. is all of N. p. m. in here me we can actually all these dependencies. That's what I think about it comes to execution because a lot of the code up there. You're not vendor in your your dependencies in your repo right. So a lot of the source code is there you taking binary to execute? -able code or read everything has to be built from source. In this hypothetical situation someone's trying to restore something other some binary third the reapers with a lot of stars getting got buyers mostly it's just source i. m kind of curious myself just how many copies of node modules we want to cash ring because I thought is curiously. The archive but I decided not to in the end. And you can that might have some value. You know sort of implicit sort of snapshot of the various dependencies along the way and how those changed Ziff wouldn't shock me. Greatly, if you know there are a lot of node modules just rob their duplicated over and over and over again but that might be useful as well. There is also going to be a master index So in principle assuming everything's on which you know most open source is these is not some sort of private repo than you should be able to. Get computers sort of reconstruct most the dependency tree for any given project. What's up friends? Are you looking for a way to instantly troubleshoot your applications and services running a production on Cuba Netease? Well, Pixie gives you a magical API to get instant debugged data and the best part is doesn't involve co change and there are no manual you is in this all lives inside Cooper. BONETTI's Pixie is an API which lives inside your platform. It harvests all the did he need and it exposes a bunch of interfaces that you can pay. To get the data that you need in it's essentially like a decentralized swamp is he programmable edge intelligence platform and a cat metrics traces logs in advance all this without any co changes in the t behind pigs is working hard to bring it to market for broad use by the twenty twenty. But guess what because you listen to this show? I'm here to tell you how you can get your hands on the Betas Day by going to Pixie lab thought. Links are in the show, check them out to click through the Beta in there slot community. Once again, PIXIE LABS DOT A. And look forward to eat pixie day coming. Soon. One of the things I read about in the documentation around this is this idea of a tech tree and maybe already described this with the manuals. But it was like a capital case t capital case t tech tree. And I wasn't sure exactly what that is can you describe what the Tech Tree, how that concept plays into the archive sheer yet neglected Princeton is a distinction. It's not the same thing as the manuals, the Guide and the sort of instructions for decoding on every real that turns every real into its own self contained archive. The tech tree is a real possibly to we're. Still compiling, we're GONNA added to to the mass once it's done just of sort of larger higher level explanatory stuff mostly works in a pre existing works books and so forth too. But to clean what software engineering is one of them is what a computer is. You know what how you'd hook together transistors op AMPs, and so forth to form a Nand Gate how Nand Gates would. you know ultimately a small microprocessor that sort of think. So in theory, there'd be enough information that you couldn't reconstruct a fair amount of modern technology from the information. On those various books. Now, this is a very romantic and compelling image. I should mention also in all honesty advisors were like this is cool but we are living in what is going to be the best documentary to area in all of history already like it's very unlikely we're going to have a future in which these books many copies of these books already exists sitting around had many physical libraries that are kind of easier to get to but we figured it'd be useful as. Context, in general understanding for the for the source could goes with it as well. So did you end up packaging that's up our? This is an idea that ongoing it is going to be packed it up. We we actually just released it for public commentary last month and I've been sort of incorporating put requests into issues on that recently. So we're going to compile this books. We're going to put visual copies. This will human readable not encoded for obvious reasons. Get. Sort of the background to begin with except for Wikipedia because that's too big but we're going to put a snapshot of Wikipedia. How? That would be easy button for this just put. Up there and you're done. One of the highest rates comments on the video when we first released the video of last year was. Store overflow next door. But stack overflow is also creative comments. So we are in fact. Of Quick Overflow and drop it in the tree as well. Elected wikipedia. Yes. That's what else going in there which area of other things and list with the two hundred books mostly but not exclusively technical all which is available on the Archive Program at Gab. Hub Dot com slash get slash archive DASH program. Smashed up in. Lincoln for those interested in seeing all the things inside the are you guys taking suggestions? We are actively taking Justin's right now incorporating some of moment. We still have to work with publishers since were literally making a copy copyright becomes an issue obviously So have to figure out to the racers with punches and set forth, which is why one reason it's been a little slower than the rest of the project that we are actively working on compiling adding into the bowl. Okay. Very cool. Yeah. I found it and you have it broken out into different areas. Such as hardware architectures, a development electron of components and you have books, you have an article assume. Written Modern soffer development then there you have these different books. That are GONNA be included. So that's very interesting. What's the next iteration of this? Then it was the timing I guess he said the pandemic has changed timings was a hoped be once a year you'd ship another thing to the Arctic or would it be every once in a while? When would you be updating this? The ball I? I. Think we're still figuring out the road map. I wouldn't expect every year that seems a little. You know I don't think we need that. Mackenzie the. First Deposit captures the last twenty, thirty years of software. I. Could see every five years. And I could see a different data formats again for each one as. Redundancy through variability that kind of thing the tech tree is also a thing which I think will it rate over time like the romantic image, the tech tree, and one that we do aspire to like an actual manual for rebuilding technological civilization from Scratch The v one as the long now as for civilization is existing works but I could see of things being constructed for this purpose kind of courses over time that is hypothetical summit Guy Staffer. Now, run road the Road Map at least one that I personally haven't mind is snapshots every five years or so. Including wishing areas well. That's correct. Yes. Story here looking at all the. Pretty big tech tree got a lot of. A lot of copyrights to get figured out here. Don't you. I guess you speak to each publisher once and you probably get all the permissions you need for that publisher. I, mean, we've got some already home some extremely helpful like O'Reilly. Pats they've been great into having trouble. You know just sort of working the whole list publishers. There's quite a long as we go through them. But we'll get them one at a time as time goes on. Hopefully. So somewhat interested Lee related with regards to the cultural and technical context of the time period. All of change log and our whole networks podcasts transcripts are source on get up and so they are undoubtedly also in there. Yes. That's true. Everything up until February second will be recorded word for word. So you have thousands of conversations of technologists through the years. Associated with that kind of stuff that I think is interesting as well. What were people saying to each other? Yeah and actually that's one of the things that I. Don't think but it's you know there's a lot of source code source very important. There's like the fundamental paintings of open source, which is a cornerstone of technology civilization as we know what that's critical as well. But also as we all know people give for all kinds of weird things. You know there's recipes on their books on there. There are sort of random notes of they're all over the place and you know the extent to which is towards the future will find this weird unexpected treasure trove is kind of appealing. Yeah. All the things you'd find in there will be quite a interesting thing to dive into exactly what about the issues so lots of conversations go on get hub that are about the source code is get up issues going to be involved anywhere. We didn't eat also pull the issues and the issues are in there. So how'd you decide which issues to Paul of the Repos you decided you just took all the issues. Issues that are not that spacious. They're mostly text right? So yeah, the issues were quite compact that we're not really a significant figure, a the sizing and like all the comments on the issues as well. I'm just enjoying the fact. There's there's so much drama around spend more to live. In the Arctic Code Vault. Developer drama. was actually just thinking that the future might look back into. This was a testy easily aggravated. was wrong with these people. Or they might look back and think man they were so civilized back then. They were tax cuts. Cared. About their bugs. What's what these two dimensional imaging you these four dimensional. We got the codes healthy Mojo in there as well. So I look forward to history looking back on those the guys I mean with some translation does I mentioned two Arabic Spanish simplified Chinese and Hindi most of it in the tree is an English at least this integration and certainly not changing fugit rations but a thing which surprised me and I thought people might be interested in is that we have this great linguistics consultants quarter Columbia, and he said that people assume that since English has changed a great deal in the last day she met it will change a great deal the next years. But he thinks. The the evidence shows that's actually quite unlikely. His estimations English is more or less stable. Now, you know people learning younger friends more interconnected connected. It's not like in little islands evolving off on its own and so the expectation is that English many hundred years. It'll be different from today as like Jane Austen's English. Is some ours a little weird little courtly, a little formal, but not that different. Quote was as an cool as it may be. You'd be all right with Justin clash. That's interesting. I assume that it would move. So I mean it's such a long time to suit a move to where at least be difficult to understand but. It was to me as well. Actually, we did cover our bases by by after all adding these other five translations of you know most significant languages we also in fact, just to be on the safe side, each real begins with the united to Universal Declaration of Human Rights in every known language in unit code. So that's several hundred. So even if only some obscure bask or Pasquet, a language survives, then we do in fact, have a Rosetta. Stone for that in on trialist. Well, I wonder if there was a sense of dread when it came time to actually ship because in software, we have the advantage over most disciplines of just shipping iterative improvements at all times and I remember talking with folks who wrote code for NASA and stuff where it was like this had to work. This was our one chance in like you ship it to you know some satellite or you know some orbiting thing and Just, like even back when they had to package up software on a compact disc and put it into a box and sell it to you in a box. Like that idea of like this is the final. Will they call them gold? Gold master I don't remember back then but like that was like the version and sure patches maybe but they weren't gonNA get in for three months. This is like you get one shot at this snapshot. Putting the declaration of rights and stuff like these things like what else should we have in here? Did. You have that moment where you're like, no, we're gonNA close the vault. We're just gotTA. Stop shoving stuff in or was it difficult? Not only did it was It was difficult. Say Okay, this is it. It was useful that we actually had a fixed date like this is going to be the snapshot you know and we set that fairly early on that was good. It actually called back. So my background may degrees in electrical engineering and I did a couple of CO OP terms that went to Waterloo in Canada does co up. Of chip designs at Nortel and at Hewlett Packard before I went into software and spent the entire rest of my career after graduate software hardware being much too forgiving in permanent. But the chip design you know was a lot like that. You know you've you're working on the speech dl and you get it working in the test working you think and York she's send it out to be fabricated somewhere and birds. And if like there's nothing that can go. Yes. and. So it reminded me of that for the first time in a very long time that. You were committing this to the world whether you like it or not as its offer developer US seem that you've forgotten that feeling because don't we have the freedom right now just not really worry about that. It was pretty unusual this sort of the feeling of property the irrevocability. been a long time since itself that professional permafrost. Yes excellent. Excellent Permit. That is really cool. Anything else about the program that we haven't touched on I haven't asked about that. You would like to discuss it's really awesome and really appreciate you. Sharing the details of this program and all the work he did the archive, these things anything we haven't touched on that. You think we should I think we have captured most of the things I want to stress just how how important, and how useful our partners have been the archive software heritage Stanford the boldly and Etcetera Etcetera I'm sure I'm leaving someone off now who really shouldn't be left off this is inevitably the way when you try and let people but. I think it was important that we cast a broad ten tried to work with as many of these organizations the long now the long great having conversation with anyone the long now was always a mind opening experience. It's. Relatively simple one in Patrick Silica. Hopefully long but you know. It's I. Think it was important to treat this as sort of not as a thing that one company is doing for one company. But that a broad consortium are doing, you know hopefully general goodwill thing I mean this is this is not a project which has an Roi. This is a project which we think is actually important you know or could be important. It's sort of a weird project. Hope it's not really that important in a perfect world you will. All this data will be anyway you know in grab it off the Internet assassinate years from now no one will care if it right but you never know. Exactly. Even who works on backups knows it's important even if it's not used. So you say to know Roi on this, what was the magnitude of the I at least you not to share specific numbers but like was this a large investment is like is the is the mine is the is the rent high on the mine how much would into this kind of project I mean I'm pretty sure I'm not supposed to share numbers but I can't say I think it was more economical than people assume and in fairness pickle. To the of really should've mentioned in the Arctic World Archive were very understanding and working with us in realizing that this was a beneficial project more than A. Private to benefit project, and there's no sort of rent which would have paid upfront for storage in perpetuity in the World Archive which is. Useful in his probably quasi eternal as much as things that are each one of these days it's owned by the Norwegian government. This lowered archipelagos actually has its. Own legal structure. It's quasi even anyone who got fall where you don't need passports to go there anyone can work there. It's governed by its own special tree, which was signed after World War One which made it a place officially free of war and sort of free habitation for any human being can get their. Auburn then underneath will it's definitely Norwegian but has its own special legal. Status as of extra national territory as well. I mean I'm not a lawyer. My wife is learning I'm sure will be very upset at me misrepresenting. The legal step out here and get back to us. That was my crew to laymen's takeaway from the strange legal status. Twelve has which is kind of an international zone of peace freedom in availability. So it's sort of optimal place to store or something. It's not likely that. Confident break there anytime soon right it's optimal for storage but sub optimal for a living, which is why only about three thousand people there and they don't need their no. One's breaking down the doors even though it's a one hundred percent covid free. That is correct. Yes. Awesome John. So I guess a story career you don't a lot of things as a very cool project and I would think a highlight of your career at least and it was my career be highlight of my career eggs. Yeah. What's coming next for you? Then can you top this one or you go back to bill offer products? What's next? I mean I m going back to building the software I think it's important to keep doing the things that you care about i. do think software's important. I'm working on a new novel who knows what will come up with that this year has been pretty bad for plans in general as you may have noticed. I've prince calling the great reset here. So we will see what happens twenty twenty one, but I expect to stay involved with the program. Indefinite. Basis and. Hope that we're connected rations I bit as well. Awesome. Well, thanks for coming on the show and tell us all about it. We appreciate it. Very much talk. That's it for this episode of the law. Thank you for tuning in. If you haven't heard yet, we have launched change plus plus it is our membership program lets you get closer to the metal, remove the ads make them disappears me say endure supporting us is the best way to directly support this show and our other podcast guarantees on dot com, and if you've been to change dot com you. Should go there now again, join plus plus directly support our work and make the as disappear check it out at dot com slash plus plus of course, used as or partner. Get it fast Li Lin owed and roll bar. Also thanks to break messes cylinder for making all of our beats and thank you to you for listening. We appreciate you. That's different this week we'll see you next week.
Risky Business #541 -- NSO Group makes global headlines. What next?
How Innovation Works, with Matt Ridley
"Today the author of the Marvelous New Book how innovation works the journalist Matt Ridley or as he is known in the House of Lords. The right honorable. The viscount Ridley a graduate of Modlin College Oxford with a degree in Zoology Matt wrote for a number of years at the economist. Spending some five years here in the United States. He's the author of many books on science and technology including his classic work. The two thousand ten book the rational optimist since two thousand thirteen viscount. Ridley has sat as a conservative in the House of Lords Matt. Thanks for making the time and welcome to everyone for to this special plague time addition of uncommon knowledge with Peter Robinson. Ready to join you. I'M LOCKED DOWN. In Palo Alto in Europe. Northumberland correct assembled in the north of England and It's beautiful weather here about. It's kind of Palo. Alto weather actually childless sky today and you and your family are well. You've escaped this things everywhere as well. So far will come to the book in a moment. But there's a kind of mandatory question for you. This is not Ridley writing recently in the spectator quote until this year. I thought this kind of infectious pandemic could not happen today. The defeat of infectious diseases as a cause of death has been so complete as to seem invincible plague smallpox typhoid measles. Polio whooping cough and many more eradicated or nearly so it turns out that I and many others were wrong. How did you miss it? Well two reasons one is. I got so used to people crying wolf and being wrong that of course. I didn't pay enough attention to people who were crying. Wolf from were right and actually there are out there. Some very prescient warnings About what's happening in Chinese wok markets about what's happening in terms of understanding the infectivity of Corona viruses in bats in China turns out they can infect human beings without adapting. I don't need to go through an evolutionary phase. It can go straight into us. That's a discovery that I'd missed but it was made for five years ago So I think a big part of this is that we've been looking in the wrong direction. We've been Panicking about climate change as a World and we should have been worrying about pandemics This specific argument. I made in that paragraph. Was that every other pandemic threat from a to saws to swine flu bird flu but proved to be a overblown and they had disappointed. If you like SPANDEX and iphone dot was because on new genomic knowledge of these viruses was so fast and so good we could read their genomes in in hours that we would be able to mobilize the work of science against them And it turns out that vaccine development really has lagged behind other forms of innovation and actually I found it very interesting article from last year before the pandemic by Wayne. Who's the head of the Global Vaccine Project in New York saying We really need to get better at making vaccines. It's far too slow. It's far too old fashioned very little being done about it and I think he was right so if I'm a hopeless Lehman so you're just going to have to talk some baby talk to get me through this map but is it correct to say that vaccines are still developed. The way most drugs used to be that is to say hit or miss these days as I understand it. Our knowledge of molecular structure has reached the point where you can effectively. Well this is an oversimplification. But you can use the computer to design the drug that you want and then go off and you've narrowed very dramatically. The number of different outcomes. So you've you've shrunk cone of trial and error so to speak but with axes for some reason it's still the old fashioned way. You just try this damn thing and if it doesn't work try another. It's like Edison. To whom will come in a moment. Edison trying as you note six thousand different fibrous plants before he hit on the right filament. Light Bulb is that so well yes and no. I think I think it's You're not wrong that that there's a huge amount of hit and miss and trial and error. In Vaccine Development. There is still in drugs to And as that example of Edison shows one of my arguments is that we must take way the space for trial and error. Because actually. That's how we've always done innovation. It's a hugely part of innovation. You never get it right first. Time your your. Your brilliant insight isn't count. It's honing that incite through trial and error. So I think that's really the problem. The problem is it. Just the the Once you've got what you think is a vaccine. You have to test animals You've after expose the animals to the disease that takes time you then have to try and Find out that it's safe and human beings Once you've done that you're GonNa have to give her a bunch of human beings and hope they come in contact with the disease. I saw an otherwise. You don't know if it works. You know there's no other way ready. So it's very time consuming and The the example of Bowler is very interesting because firms did develop it. Bola vaccines in fourteen. Fifteen when the pandemic epidemic of Ebola is happening Africa but by the time they got them going the epidemic was and there were not enough volunteers to come forward to test it so it never in the end got probably tested and that is a nice example of why vaccines on profitable for the drug industry. The very specific they only deal with disease. If they work they do themselves out of business. Very quickly And even if they don't was disease usually goes away very quickly because the kind of things are dealing with a ten to to come and go so unlike statins which you go and giving people the year after year. They're just not very lucrative and recognizing that problem the gates foundation. The Wellcome Trust. Did something rather good a few years ago? They got together and together with the Norwegian government and the Indian government set up something called the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation which all about speeding up vaccine vaccine development. But it's only really just going now. My question is why on. Earth didn't the World Health Organization do that twenty s before Why didn't governments of the world with our aid budgets Look into doing that. You know why did it take As as Gates has done quite often. Actually what did it take gates to come along and say here's a better way of spending the money To achieve this 'cause I think vaccine developed is something that could be speeded up. There are lots of new avenues but for doing it. And they need to be tried you are trotting out one of the themes from how innovation works and I suppose we need to introduce the book before we come back to that theme but you note in the book. The at large organizations are seldom the right place for innovation and I have to suppose that argument applies to governments and world health organizations and so forth all right the book itself. How innovation works quote. Innovations come in many forms but one thing they all have in common is that they are enhanced forms of improbability. I love that phrase. But it's certainly needs to be explained. Yes well the. The world tends towards more chaotic and improbable structures. In other words. Your your bedroom gets less tidy if you do nothing about it. You need to put energy into make your bedroom tidy when you've done. So you've made your bedroom less probable more improbable very im- I mean every single one of the books behind me it is incredibly improbable arrangement of atoms. They not only to make the structure of the book but to make the pattern of letters in the words in the book. These are unbelievably IMP. They couldn't come about by chance. And that's what energy does for us we have to put energy into this to reverse entropy that is to say to to Reverse Kale and create order and improbability. And when you think about it everything. Useful in the world has a of improbable structure. I mean it's it's very precisely designed and that's what we human beings are in the business of and by the way so mother nature. I mean that's whatever Lucien is doing is creating improbable structures like you know bodies in braids and we're in the business of creating improbable structures buildings and media conferences these improbable ways of reorganizing. The atoms of the will. And that's in the end. What would doing was searching other improbable outcomes that are useful to us An inducer we have to apply energy. And that's why I stopped my book with energy because I think it is actually very important and I. I used the beautiful analogy from my old friend. Douglas Adams the author of the HITCHHIKER's guide to the galaxy. Who write this rather Baba's phrase in one of his books that one of the book of the Hitchhiker's guide that Iraq it was driven by an infinite improbability drive so I say that human civilization is an infinite improbability drive which I think is what Douglas was getting it is. It is a wonderful phrase one more quotation from the very beginning of the book which feels like a terrible admission at the beginning of a book about innovation and it reads as follows. Yes brace yourself but you are. The one who wrote it. Surprising truth is that nobody really knows why innovation happens and how it happens let alone when and where it will happen next closed quote so it is the nature of innovation that always contains an element of surprise. Well it's partly that we don't know where it's GonNa Flare. Up in terms of which technologies are going to be subject to innovation? People think all innovations speeding up. That's not the case. I mean think about transport I I flew on a seven four seven the other day the other day but a couple of months ago at that was an airplane invented fifty one years ago in nineteen sixty nine magin using computer invented Fifty one years ago you know. It's impossible to imagine. So computers and communications have speeded up incredibly in my lifetime whereas transport is hardly changed the toll and when I was born felt the opposite was going to be the case. All the Futurology of the nineteen fifties is about how we're going to see personal jet packs. Jared Copters for commuting routine. Space travel supersonic. Eilon is all that kind of stuff? None of which happened instead. We got amazing computers and communications which they didn't see coming. Mostly they thought we were gonNA use landlines by now so So in that sense unpredictable it's also unpredictable. Globally in the sense that it's hot. It's it's you can come up with good reasons why. California has been the center of innovation for the last fifty years. You can come up with good reasons. Why Italy was in the fourteen hundreds. You can come up with good reasons. Why China was in the ten hundreds. But it's it's all a bit random. It's all a bit spontaneous. It's all a bit unplanned and of course that's very much my point is that this is a a precious plant that grows in the ground. And what you gotTa do till the ground and make it ready rather than plan an outcome. You can't really plan innovation. You cannot say I'm going to go in UNCREATIVE. Exactly the following innovations because we're fantastic predicting the future in technology As I pointed out in the book you know we don't we didn't he said change. It's coming as an import hunt. You for example. One last brief quotation from the very opening how innovation works in this book. I shall try to tackle this great puzzle. I will do so not by abstract theorizing but mainly by telling stories. Now of course for a layman like me. That's wonderful because you've got what a couple of dozen fascinating stories there. But why did you adopt that technique? Why are you telling stories? It's because I like reading stories. It's taken me a long time to get to this realization. You might think but actually what what what we human beings light reading stories tales about people's lives about who they were why they did things and what happened to them and this to some extent contradicts the theme of my book. Which is that people. Don't not if Thomas Edison had been run over by a tram. Lightbulb would still have been developed. We're twenty one different. People came up with the idea of the light bulb around the same time as it happens. He was the one who made sure. Who's reliable and affordable kind of thing so in a sense Edison doesn't matter But in another sense he math is all because if the if anyone can do it then it's clever of him to be the person who does it by telling these stories about people that I sort of bring out the themes about the technology this this being vid cast morning here in California. But it's evening where you are. We don't have time for story after story after story. People have to buy the book for that. But can you just tell us? Tell US briefly then. The Story of Thomas Edison American sick. They know that but when you read the story and how innovation works you realize you don't you don't know that story briefly the story of Edison and why he why that story if not personally but why what that story tells us that's important. What dozens Biography really tells us is the importance of trial and error. He was someone who spotted the way to do innovation and well. I think he spotted was that you could set up a factory to produce innovations you. Could you could actually set up a a plant. Whose job was to find new ways of arranging the world. The light bulb the nickel battery. These kind of things and you did it by trial and error. You tried and tried and tried six thousand different plant materials as you mentioned before. He came up with Japanese. Bamboo for the Filament of of a light bulb so his approach was very much a as you might. Call it a brute force approach of of just trying everything you can think of and his his labs and his workshops were full of books full of ideas full of things said that everybody was just working really hard he made people what really hard to produce these things and he said That it is a. I think he wants said that I. It's not that I've failed. I've just found fifty thousand was done work Oil is other famous. Quotation is that it's one percent inspiration and ninety nine percent perspiration and I think that's that's the key to the distinction between invention and innovation in my view. These I make that argument in the book that that you can have a bright idea you can invent a prototype but turn an invention something that people actually adopt that is reliable manufacturable that is affordable. That's actually the hard work. And so someone like Jeff. Bezos is a Multan Edison in the sense that he took the idea of e-commerce which we rule capable of playing with attorney something that worked and he did so by failing by failing again and again and again to the succeeded. I mean I'm not. I'm not dissing him that he says the same thing that had to be a lot of failure to get to our success at Chroma to the virus. Who's in the United Kingdom and in all but seven states six or seven states? I'm not sure I can't remember the cow here. In the United States the government has shut down the economy an order to salt remain in our homes and this country. We've got over twenty five million people out of work. The GDP seems to have dropped by five percent in one quarter between four and five percent. A figure that would be much larger if it hadn't been for a huge government infusions of liquidity and even during the first and Second World Wars neither your government nor minded. What they've done now which is close all the schools. How is this? All terrible overreaction. Should we have had I tried to get to? I'm thinking out the rational optimist but the rational optimist says be optimistic and be rational and it feels as though. There's a mechanism here. The press is in the business of exaggerating. Every story to sell newspapers and politicians are in the business of enjoying the limelight. They just like it and exercising power. So you can see the way. The incentives may have distorted. What do you make of it all? What do you make of it? All twelve point. I I have become more. And more of a lockdown skeptic because it's young's phrase I think it has been a huge mistake and I think that the The example that proves the rule is sweet. Sweden has not looked down. Its economy It has a courage to people to work from home. Encourage people not to gather in large gatherings. It has encouraged people to WASH THEIR HANDS INTO NOT SHAKE HANDS. And all that kind of thing. It's done all of that voluntary stuff but without slamming on the brakes on its economy and it will still suffer. It still has a relatively high death rate I than some other countries in Europe But not as high as in Britain and sending no higher than most European countries. So I'm afraid it is proving that the that many of these measures would not necessary now. Some measures were necessary. I think it was right to ban large gatherings. I think it was right to own. The hill goes down travel and loaded public trounce. Bolt I think it was right to encourage people to work from home as much as possible and to Know selfies Layton distance show at Cetera. But what what has been added by closing schools seems to be very little indeed. What is benighted by cutting down? Most workplaces seems to be very little indeed because the more we find out about this fires the more. It's clear that it's spreading an enclosed spaces. It's not spreading out of Dole's It's not spreading through young people very foster tool. It's possible for young people to give it to people and that's one of the big problems but it's it's relatively rare I mean there's a there's a kid who quoted skiing in Switzerland who came back to London who they've traced one hundred and seventy of his contacts A not one of them got the corona vars from him. Both his siblings got the cold. He had a few days after a. That's much infectious. So how how did countries in Asia escape better and to some extent johnny? Germany did do a full. Lockdown announcer is testing. It's it's now abundantly clear. That testing makes a huge difference. If you test everybody who thinks they've got it in the community as well as in the healthcare system from the start then you can keep on top of it. Why should that make the difference after all the test is not a kill and by the time you take the test you might be feeling ill? You might have already pasta dawn. You'd think it wouldn't make much difference. Well the answer is I think the This is only coming clear but recently is testing allows you to prevent it getting into the healthcare system. I think the real tragedy Italy in Spain France and Britain has been That it's got into the healthcare system and in America because once doctors and nurses an awful lot of people in the healthcare system already of honorable. They've got underlying conditions which make the vulnerable and if an people coming to all spills coming to clinics are on the whole sick people and if they pick it up the then they get sicker and so there's been this bushfire gone through the hospitals. In Britain we sent patients home from hospitals to cavs to clear the woods for an expected wave of corona virus patients. Well actually some of them were in oral radio infected so we gave it to the comms so I think it is a disastrously. No so Komal epidemic. That is to say hospital a quad. And that's terrible news in some ways but it's good news in other ways because it means that if it's going fast through the hospitals it must be going that much slower through community and and therefore all you need to do in the community is more. Chauhan's keep your distance an older sort of reasonable voluntary things as it is. We've we've done terrible harm to the economy. We've looked people down and we've got an awful lot of people who are quite happy being locked out their own government salaries or their own now government-subsidized salaries and they're saying in Britain. The teachers say the one saying we don't schools reopening require happy. Thank you still getting out salaries. We're at home. So that's a real worry right. So here's here's the sort of underlying question rational optimism. How innovation works in both of these books. You argue that things get better and better and better you just unleash. Human creativity and although the process is unpredictable over the longer term the material circumstances of our lives get better and better and better and we ought to appreciate that. Anyone who reads either of your books does do so on the other hand there does seem to be something in us that likes to be frightened. Why else would the press? Overplay the story overplayed this and every story. There is something in us that would rather be told what to do this. Tolstoy and the or does in the legend of the grand inquisitor being free is in some way hard work. We find this difficult. There's something in us that wants to be told. Go into your home and we'll let you want to save to come out so I guess what I'm working you must. This must be a kind of the permanent dilemma of Your Life. That I don't know. How does one describe it? And what do you make of it is? Are we talking about the frontal region of the brain versus the reptile brain there? We are the strange animals that can be rational and duly optimistic and yet loved to be scared and told what to do. How do you handle that? Well it's it's a truly difficult puzzle that because there is something called L. Tourism gap which is the fact that although people that are extremely pessimistic about the fate of the planet very pessimistic about their own countries pretty pessimistic by their own towns. They're optimistic about their own lives. They don't have this pessimism about. They think they're gonNA and mold than they do. They stay married longer than they do. They think there's all sorts of ways in which people actually unrealistically optimistic about their individual lives. An unrealistically pessimistic about the bigger picture. Why is that well? It's very simple the media and John Tinian Ray bomb us to discuss this in the new book Whose name of temporarily forgotten but it they discussed the point that The media tells them to be pessimistic about the world. It doesn't tell them to be pessimistic about their own lives where their inexperience counts for much more than than the bigger picture. So that's part of it now. Why is the media circus mystic? Well if it bleeds it leads. A bad news is more salient. It's more interesting. Bad News Sutton good. News tends to be general gradual whereas good bad news tends to be sudden and deep within us there is undoubtedly a psychological bias to pay more attention to bad news and good news and it probably made sense back on the Savannah United Woking to the waterhole use a identing we should go this way. The Mafia line behind that rock and I say no. Haven't you read Matt Ridley's book? Everything's getting better. It's all GonNa be fine. I'm dead your genes are in the next generation via my girlfriend right right right right all right and just on that point. The there's a beautiful point made by chance Rowsley. The late hands Rozenich News. One of the godfathers of rational optimism. But when people put me onto the these ideas Because he did a poll of a thousand people in the US and then he repeated it in the UK a number of countries and he said in the last twenty years has the percentage of the world's population lives in extreme poverty of Donald. Stay the decide which of those things correct and in the UK and the US about sixty five percent of people think it has doubled only five percent think it is hard to five percent a right and the sixty five percent role. That's striking enough. But he then says hang on if I read those three answers on three bananas and I threw them to chimpanzee. The chimpanzee would pick up the right answer. Thirty three percent of the time not yet five percent of the time. It would do six times as well as human beings in answering a question about human society. That's the measure of how much we've indoctrinated ourselves into global pessimism. You Must Have Known Bob Conquest. You remember Robert Conquest to switch. No I didn't know personally but I did not. He was a colleague of mine here at the Hoover Institution. Bob's Bob had conquest rules and one of the rules was that everyone is conservative about what he knows. Best which is another formulation of this. I think where you're experiencing back to. How Innovation Works China quote? There is little doubt that the innovation engine has fired up in China. Silicon Valley's will sputter on for a while. This was a bit painful reading this where I sit but it is likely that in the coming few decades China will innovate on a grander scale. And faster than anywhere else. Close quote China will lead the world in innovation. Why well I'm basing this on empirical facts which is that. China is way past the stage of catching up with Western economies by doing cheap manufacturing for them and emulating that technology eighties innovating. And you can see that particularly in consumer behavior Consumers don't use cash in China. But they you qods either. They have gone full commerce. It's basically these little things that you pay for everything menus of children to cash to a taxi driver and build up your phone in the transaction. That's that's yeah And how is that possible given that this is a repressive centralist regime? That would do justice to the Ming. Add power in terms of its Authoritarianism and the answer that is that the system. Deng Xiaoping created which has persisted is in. My view is surprisingly free at the lower levels but extremely on free at the top level in other words as did Deng Deng Xiaoping succeeds mile and in Nineteen seventy-nine. He begins talking about socialism with Chinese characteristics and he opens begins the open to the market. Or It's just just Deng Xiaoping now long dead. But he's the man in the seventies seventy nine through the eighties who begins the market revolution in China Carry on sorry. Yeah and well. Xi Jinping is much more authoritarian figure the that on the whole what his Communist Party is doing is insisting that there be no innovation in politics. So you can't start political party. You CAN'T DISAGREE. You can't start a free press But what you but as long as you don't annoy the Communist Party if you want to start a business making a widget and in doing so you need to build a factory. In in building factory you need to reclaim some land than the rules in ranks. You've got to go through to do that or the rules and rigs. You've got to go through to produce an innovative product. An order of magnitude less than in America. Or your see I send. That's my hypothesis. I've only been to China a couple of times. I read a lot about it but I haven't been often enough so I don't pretend to be an expert but my argument is that it's sort of an exception that proves the rule because it it's an exception to the idea that you need freedom to innovate but the free the freedom is that it's just below a certain level Now I don't think that compromise can lost forever. I mean that it feels very uncomfortable if the world comes to rely on an innovation engine that is run by the Communist Party. That does not feel like a a sustainable future. So that's why I'm desperate for the west to rediscover the genius of innovation and indeed for India which is of course the other merging giant here. Which is an innovative country and is a country addicted in a way to spontaneous order. It is always been the best example of how society is a sort of a bottom up phenomenon rather than top down. One will bathe. It doesn't look very ordered when you're in a traffic jam in dead but it's know it's sort of That's that's where it's coming from. I feel in the long run. India will save us if American Europe. Don't may I tell you being you? You probably are completely aware of this. But I'd like to see how you respond to as like your advice for this country. Here's what's happening right now. I feel this. I confirm it in one conversation after another. I can't prove it but you'll see the point. The old Cold War Ronald Reagan is elected on a platform of standing up more resolutely to the Soviets but after a decade and a half of detente the polls indicate that the American people are actually not all that anti Soviet and then the Russians shoot down a Korean airliner double o seven and in forty eight hours the polls turn and the during the election campaign. One thousand nine was after was elected would have been eighty three. I was working there right. I think it was early. Fish first term and suddenly the public support for his policies slid right into place and something like that feels to be going on right now. Donald Trump is hardening toward the Chinese but the public is confused the business community here in Silicon Valley. Which of course is interlaced with Chinese. We they invest in us. We invest in them. Up and down this valley's Chinese students get hired out of Stanford too much more complicated than the old Cold War but now with this corona virus where it seems unambiguous that that the minimum Zheng understood what was happening long before he he informed the West and at a minimum he shutdown Wuhan internally but continued to permit international flights to infect the rest of us that much now seems at least that much seems unambiguously clear and the public opinion against China is hardening up. Now this is a this is. This is what this is a disaster for all of us. Some somehow we're now going to begin disentangling even that is the wrong way of putting it. I suppose because whatever the they have their part of our supply. This is so different from the old Cold War part of our supply chain. They've invested in companies all over the West. We've invested in them. The best figure I could find the other day when I was searching for it. Was that three hundred and sixty thousand. Chinese students are studying in the United States right now and yet and yet there's a new cold war taking shape bad news. Good news what are we to do? I think that's a very acute analysis. I think you're absolutely right that this is a moment which public opinion could easily switch the fact that Donald Trump has been banging on about it for three years implies. It public opinion was ready to switch on a lot of this. That that yes. The economic trade war had already primed the public And of course I'm not with him on that. I'm a free trader. I don't believe the tariffs of the way to go about this kind of thing but I I think that in this crisis even those of us who had no illusions about Xi Jinping's rule have been deeply shocked by the behavior of the Chinese government. Not just the things you mentioned but also the disinformation campaigns the blatant attempt to exert propaganda into west media The attempt to blame the virus on the US military visiting Wuhan lack of transparency about the origins of the virus. And what is known about it? The Wuhan Institute of Virology Stories which While I I seen the the evidence that I've seen the molecular biological evidence does not support the idea that this specific leak from the Wuhan Institute of our Olivetti is a tool likely as the souls. There is another institute in in Wuhan which was also working on bats with a security level. It was working on local bats and it will be a local back because we know that the unanimous bats being looked at the virology institute are two different. It's not impossible that a accidentally might have been responsible. The only way to to prove to us that that's not the case. Mr G is to open up. Bring the scientists out in the open. Tell us exactly what they were doing. With our experiments exactly what the protocols were and bring them before the world's press so we can answer them and that's not happening and therefore conspiracy theories are growing including ones it might have been a bio weapon which ident- believe for a minute. I don't believe anyone let even at Chinese scientists cover enough to build bioweapons So I think you're absolutely right that this is a critical moment But you're also right that we are horribly dependent on Chinese Jane and as you mentioned on Chinese students the U. K. academic sector has become utterly dependent on Chinese students because they bring a lot of money with them And you've seen we've seen in recent days some surprisingly craven remarks by the new Vice Chancellor of Cambridge about how we must be Nice to the Chinese not discriminate against them in this kind of thing of course. I don't want to discriminate against them. I just WanNa get at the truth about things I tell you it's very interesting. I was in Hong Kong Japan in late twentieth. Eighteen so year and a half ago and I came with very surprised. By how strongly anti-china sentiment was in Japan? Again and again I was told. You cannot underestimate what they're up to. You mustn't overlook the degree to which cyber particularly they are on a war. Footing was the way Japanese were saying to and I was amazed. I had not heard this view. I then went to Hong Kong where I talked to. Somebody who had spent twelve years in Beijing was now in Hong Kong journalists and he said Yeah the the Japanese rights and we are heading for wool and I said. What do you mean wool wool real show? You mean trade world. Cyber law a wool with guns. Who With who they going to attack said? That's easy Vietnam and I said why. And he said because they have a grudge against Vietnam cool whip their ass in the juice whereas I got but who damaged them in a war in the nineteen eighties And they want revenge and they also know that America is not coming to the help event now in the second time Not that's not how it turned out this time but I am considerably met me. I put the problem this way. Your thank you very much. I thought that I was going to get some really lovely answer from you about relaxed. Irrational optimus this is all going to work out and you're frightening me even more. The reptile brain of Little Robinson here is on full alert right now but let me put this well. Nineteen fourteen but nobody talks. So here's what incidentally as to as to Vietnam a colleague of mine here at the Hoover Institution is Jim Mattis. Whose former secretary of defense and during his not quite two years the secretary of defense the Vietnamese got in touch and said by the way. Could you Could you produce some sort of show of friendship with US and Jim? This is his account. All Its in the public record. Engine gyms what do you mean? Well could you just send us a ship on some SORTA? Have an American ship put in here so Jim Madison Anthem and aircraft carrier and the Vietnamese were thrilled. But but at least if Jim Madison Secretary of Defense Vietnam falls within the perimeter to which the United States at least pays close attention. These days are but here's the here's the way it goes basic thinking on the American military. They outnumber us. They've got us. Their their economy is huge. It may already be bigger than ours by some measures but soon enough. It's likely to be bigger than ours not per person of course but still overall output bigger. Here's where we retain the edge and where we must retain the edge because it's the only edge we retain innovation. We can stay if we are very shrewd about innovation and then transferring innovation from the startup. Firms all happens into our military if we do it quickly and well and more securely than we've been doing we can sustain a permanent edge and let the diplomats keep talking over the coming decade or two and now. Matt Ridley says OBE. They're already out innovating US they're the engine of innovation. And so this is actually a question of state could arise in your present chamber so my noble Lord a short of surrender to these people. What are we to do well and the answer is unleashed the innovation engine in our own economies. Again and for me. It's for me. The number one thing is speed of decision making by government I see it on a very small scale. If I need a permit for something trivial in my garden I see on a very large scale if my country needs a new runway for. It's my nap court decisions on taken in lethargic manner with absolutely no urgency and. I've come to the conclusion that the problem with bureaucracies not that it says no to innovators but that it takes a very long time to say yes. I am and during that time the money runs out. You give up just take diagnostic devices full. Eg DNA tests full of viruses. And things like that topical subject. It takes on average seventeen months in Europe to get a new diagnostic. Sorry zero seven zero months to get a new medical device Licensed under the European medicines agency in the United States takes twenty months. Much better but still pretty Yes I mean it should take a week. Frankly you know maybe not awake but in the current crisis it is taking a week. You know people are coming forward with new versions of ventilators new versions of of Dna tests all sorts of things and they are being rushed. Approval and safety is being assessed. And they're being put on the mark. And now how many entrepreneurs thought you know what I might go often invent. A new hand held device that will test full viruses in the field in ten minutes There's no reason I can't achieve that by miniaturizing polarized chain reactions and applying them with electrons consumer electronics. I could do that. How many people were deterred from doing by knowing that? The regulatory hurdles were huge Announcers a lot. I think yes. And you see this in spades for example in the nuclear industry where it has been impossible to innovate because regulates take so long to approve. A new design that Yo- broke before you Even break ground And so I think. Speed of decision making is the key thing but we need to address But there are lots of other things and we tend to take top down view of innovation particularly in this country. The way we think that it's about putting money into the universities and hoping that We come out the other end of the pipe and that isn't the way it works. I mean what are the points that I tried to make the book is that the Linear Model Discovery Leads to invention Application is wrong. It's not always wrong but sometimes right. But it's just as often the other way round just to give you a very nice example by the crisper the genome editing technology. That is Very exciting development of ten years looks like a purely academic discovery if you read the conventional accounts account it and it's all about whether Berkeley deserves the patent so Mit deserves the buttons. But actually when you drill down further into it where does it come from? It comes out of the Yoga Industry. Because if you're growing yogurt your bacteria are sometimes get sick so you need to send for the vet to kill them and one of the things that you do. Is You put money into understanding the Bacterial Immune System. How bacteria don't get sick and viruses? So you need to understand what their defenses are against bacteria viruses and it emerged from work done actually with the help of the Sultan Industry in Spain Fund. Enough that There were these wits sequences in bacteria that might be something to do with that system for defeating viruses. That's exactly what it is. It's sort of library virus. He considers that the bacteria keep on filed. Saying if you see this sequence cut it out because it's a bars And so all. This comes out of a very practical problem in industry how to solve bacterial cultures going sick and But ends up getting into universities where it gets retooled as a genome editing tool and it comes back into industry now as a potential device for both getting people have concert and giving us better crops for agriculture. So it's a very nice example of the two way flow between science and technology Between universities and business and for me we need to understand that much better if we're to unleash innovation again in the West Matt you toward the end of innovation works. You produce a number of predictions where you think. Bundles of innovations might lead us by twenty fifty and again we don't even we don't have time for your couple of dozen of absolutely fascinating stories. I'd like to take a couple here of your predictions of which you make half a dozen or so quotation by twenty fifty innovation will make it possible to fuel prosperity for all with far lower net emissions of carbon dioxide thrilling sentence. Probably you continue. That will mean new forms of nuclear power. Oh well matt politically we already know. That's a problem and I just if your theme great theme is look at what humans are capable of doing let us. Rejoice I guess my my kind of counter pose is Matt Human Perversity. You really have no. You're just not giving it adequate. Wait here if nuclear power represents the hope for the environment that you and many others tell us it it is. Why does the green move it? Movement utterly oppose it. Yeah well this is one of the great tragedies of a era and The the the degree to which the environmental movement was born in an mood and then became anti fossil fuel and refuses to recognize that the only technology that can deliver low-carbon energy own a sufficient scale without damaging huge swathes of the planet by putting Rondo solar panels or wind up is new Kepa because of its concentrated form its potential to be very affordable etc as long as it can innovate that refusal is is ultra disappointing. I agree and to understand it. You you have to understand this. This deep-seated resistance to innovation that that. I right L. Chapter about because it's just not true that people love innovation always adopted. There is huge resistant to invasion. I talk about the resistance to the innovation cold coffee. When coffee came into Western Europe in sixteen hundreds there was huge resistance from the wind industry. Which didn't want competition but also from kings. They didn't like people sitting running coughing as coffee. Coffeehouses talking about how bad the king was running the government and so Even something as simple as that had a real struggle to get adopted and we now have extremely well organized extremely well funded businesses whose job is opposing innovation and technology. And they're up. Their opposition to nuclear power is basically that it's industrial and we. It's quite easy for people to dislike editing industrial which is where Michael. Moore's new film planet humans to so interesting because he's punching the wind and solar industries a very industrial to they know the mining a lot of equipment and so it might be that we have to as it were throw fishing under the bus and move onto fusion before we can win this argument light route. It's a bit like in in my country. We have to sort of abandon all hope to do conventional genetic engineering and try and win argument for genome editing. Saying look this even if you don't like genetic engineering there's no reason not just there's disliked you know magic so to some extent one has to admit the ones lost the battle on like soldiers these days and fusion is showing real promise. Now we've heard that before we've heard that forty fusion has been forty years away from forty years is old joke And it may yet. Before two years away but the development of high temperature superconductors and particularly the involvement of the private sector in the industry is making a spectacular difference because instead of a rather leisurely the angle towards some kind of goal in twenty fifty the private sector is saying actually we want to build a working fusion reactor this decade And we think we can now And if that were to happen you know. The fuel of this thing is water basically The radioactive output is extremely low in extremely short lived so regulation should be different in the long as we regulation right then. Just imagine what we could do if you had a fusion reactor the size of a you know a large closets powering every city every town Producing as much interest as you ever want For decades on end with no fuel having to go into it except a little bit of water every now and then what has to be done into tritium and allow. There's a process involved but it's the footprint is tiny compared with any other technology we have and then we'd have lots of energy and we've got lots of energy then we can do all sorts of everything. Yes yes a few final questions map. I can't not ask you about Brexit. Because you are one of the very few supporters of Brexit in the upper chamber. I was going to correct you. There and say fifty. Two percent of people supported Brexit in Hausa village. It was very very lonely due to take. Yes yes so your argument if I can summarize your argument as I gleaned it from looking at juice. You'RE ALL OVER YOUTUBE. You know you stand up and and your colleagues actually wake up. Sit Up and take notice when you speak. So your argument is Brexit Brexit Brexit amounts to a reassertion of British sovereignty and a reassertion of British sovereignty bringing the rule of the nation back from Brussels to Westminster opens the opportunity for Britain to restore the traditional rights including a much freer approach to life in all kinds of ways than is typical on the continent. I think roughly speaking your. You're much more backward-looking version of my argument than I would try to make. In other words I would say this is liberation a leap out into the world and a rejoining of the world as a traditional trading nation which Britain always walls a maritime trading nation rather than a province of an and that's what it has increasingly felt like very centralized system with harmonization where all the rules must be the same and Wishing new equivalence is the way to go if something safe in your country we'll regarded to saving us if you don't have to have the same rule about how you decided. It was safe. that's-that's called equipment. That's the way we deal with America. We recognize your Regulations and you recognize us but we don't have to do them the same so this is very much. I mean the the extent to which the Brussels machine has become at the None of center of an important with very top don ways of working very slow ways of working very anti innovation ways of working is underestimated in America. People don't realize it we asked for full. We refused any form of reform. Atoll which point I became a right? Well if um change will go. And I it. It's a book called changes go And I never thought we'd win but we did We then had a terrible three-year period when we said we'd go but the political cost in Stu said they kept doing their best to sabotage aren negotiating position. So are you now or up and now you're time for the whole thing collapses because of the crisis in here's here's the here's the actually unsure you can anticipate this but Prime Minister Johnson gets you out and the very next day he wakes up and says oh by the way. Here's what happens next vast spending by this government. We're going to launch one crazy infrastructure project after another up north. We're moving the House of Lords from Westminster to York. That seems to have gotten dropped helped smothering. That was just a wind us up. I think reprinted. So but we've got. The the notion here is that instead of rejoining the world and pursuing the Ridley path of greater freedom the current government heroic in some ways who but Boris Johnson would have been crazy enough to stick with brexit for year after year when all the polls seem to be against it when the whole ruling class. And I think it's fair to use that phrase of the lead in London. These days the whole ruling ROIC effort on his part and the moment brexit happens he wakes up the next morning and says from right done from now on. We're going to do everything wrong. Well it's a slight exaggeration. There's a lot of libertarian rhetoric. Coming from some of his ministers to I mean let's trust. The International. Trade Minister is a standard bearer for the liberal open view of are. We should be doing this but it is true that somewhere along the line Boris has allowed sort of nationalist invest public. Money in a country That's the way to grow line to And it will be a difficult argument to win for example his chief policy advisor. Who's a friend of mine? Dominant Cummings is very keen on DOPP on muddle leading a an institute on top and some of us are trying to find out to dominic. That actually has great success. Doppler was set up in reaction to the sputnik sky but it's great a branch of of the of the Pentagon of the United States military which invests in technology and is credited again and again and again with the creation of the Internet. Although well you'll tell us the truth and it it's really When people leave Darpa and go-to Xerox and also when the Internet escapes from DOPP catches that it really takes off so it's a misreading of history to think that the government is behind the digital industry to the extent that people like to claim. Yes it's involved. But then given the government is spending forty percent of the country's money then it better spent some of it on digital innovation. Right Matt last last question for you. How innovation works quote quote innovation? Is the child of freedom because it is a free? Creative attempt to satisfy freely expressed human desires innovative societies our free societies close quote and. You've already explained how although it doesn't seem that way to us even in China where freedom applies is where creation innovation takes place. Alright how innovation works is appearing at a moment when your government and mine are engaging in the most comprehensive suppression of ordinary freedoms since the Second World War and pretty arguably ever again as I mentioned early on even during the first and Second World Wars even during the Second World War during the blitz and London when children were sent to Canada or up north. To where where you are to get them out of London. They were still sent to school. The schools remained open and we have in China under Zhang Ping a movement toward authoritarianism. And I don't know enough to argue with you on this point but it does seem at least a kind of counter to your earlier argument. This social credit business that people are ordinary citizens are being tracked on their phones and by cameras on every street corner. And if you if you jay walk the government knows about it and makes it more difficult for you to get a good hotel reservation or to borrow from a bad alright so Matt Ridley Matt Ridley says freedom. Freedom is is a good in and of itself but it's also essential for us in the West to preserve our way of life. We must remain free because we must innovate and it feels as though Matt Ridley as brilliantly championing beautifully giving voice to a lost cause well wouldn't be the first time in my family. One of my ancestors was burnt at the stake for championing lost cause but I talk me out of it. There is a huge battle to be fought as we come out of this pandemic to regain the freedoms that we have surrendered in a flash. We've passed some horrendously illiberal legislation through parliament in the last couple of months Likewise in Congress and not only that we've seen The police in this country. I'm doing the most ridiculous over interpretation of the rules that have been paused. And you know we had a senior police officers stand up and says I'm not saying we've been inside the supermarket and we've looked inside people's pockets and on the whole that doing the right thing by non essential items but if they start so we will don't don't be afraid of it we will go in and we will arrest them what I mean. Where did that come from? How do we know the people like that in our society who even thought like that and there's a lot of people who are not in the place who are any too happy to tell neighbors L. for walking down the streets to slowly? Are you taking exercise or are you go shopping? You know you're wondering look that's not allowed. You know the petty Bossy -ness of society. That is a merged in the last month and a half is really frightening. And if there's even a hint that at the end of this we say well I spent about to keep some of these rules so need them then I and others pollen will be doing on. Dont to prevent happening but it will be not bill struggle but I will say one thing. It's ten years since the rational came out in every single one of those years I've been interviewed at some time or other but the thesis of of that Book and every single one of those years people have started the questions with well. You might have been right up until now but look at. What's happening now does it? He Bowler epidemic a war in Ukraine. Those are war in Syria. This euro zone crisis. Whatever it is that people have thrown at me and said see. It's all going wrong and we got past those we will get past this. We'll restore liberty. We will sail on into the Sunlit uplands of the twenty twenties have a very innovative time and Do great things. Do you have your diarrhea on your desk. Because I'd like to make an appointment to interview you again in a decade. Just you've I take that as a challenge Matt Ribiero. You're on too. I'll be careful. Careful you and I are the same age within a matter of a couple of months. I reckon is that wrong but the other I wanna live to twenty fifty I'll be ninety two because the so many predictions about wealth will be liked by twenty fifty most of extremely pessimistic. And I think that'll be a great year to say I told you sir. Yes yes all right. Well I'll be on oxygen. Mitchell will walk into the studio on Walkers. But we'll do that. We'll do that. We'll do that. Let's make that date turning twenty fifty. Yes exactly exactly exactly Matt Ridley author of how Innovation Works and also of the classic work actually how innovation works is is it will. Is it classic itself will become a classic of the soon to become classic Innovation Works? And if the already classic the rational optimist. Thank you very much Peter. It's always a huge pleasure to talk to you in a very very interesting as a way for the Hoover Institution uncommon knowledge and Fox nation. I'm Peter Robinson Talk.
As oil demand sentiments diverge on a national and an operator level, are production plans evolving to keep pace?
"Welcome to the daily brief, the world oil podcast network daily review of Market News, emerging trends, new technologies and the people who are advancing the oil and gas industry. Here's Cameron Wallace with your top news stories of the day. Hello and welcome to the world of daily brief podcast. Cameron Wallace and today is Wednesday July the first, and as we move into the first day of July we seem to see quite a bit of action. In different parts of the world, with regards to production and production strategies in particular, there seems to be somewhat of a divergence in how major players see the market evolving, and how that difference of opinion. Opinion is impacting production plans on a national and a corporate level. So today we are joined by Kurt. Abraham editor in chief of world oil magazine. Help US take a look at these different ideas, and how they are kind of diverging of forming maybe two separate camps, and what that means for the oil price, so kurt thanks for being on the show today. Get Cameron and once again roth to an interesting week. We are never at a loss for interesting weeks around here Kurt. I think we're fortunate in that regard at least. One thing that catches my attention is you know OPEC, plus and its allied not members, but associated partners I guess you could call them are doing their level best to try to hue to their most recent production cuts, and that means a few different things few different producers. Norway, however has taken a little different approach. They've got Johanesburg or online, and they have the pedal to the metal with their production output out of that field. That's very true and you know they. Set a record for crude loadings from that field, and at four point, four million barrels of four hundred sixty five thousand barrels a day in August. That's what they're setting this four that would compare with four hundred twenty nine thousand barrels, a day expected in July. Ecuador, which is we all know is partially controlled by. Norwegian government apply pledged to slash production from Johann, spiritual up by twenty percent as a country moved ahead with. Oil output cuts in cooperation with OPEC plus but this seems to fly in the face to that. Yeah, it sure does an. It's an interesting opportunity that they're taking because they seem to be trying to sort of have, have it both ways and they're producing flat out yet. They say that they're interested in complying with their OPEC requirements, but maybe the the opportunity to have a piece of the market for their very specific type of crude up there in the North Sea. Which is China at a chance to get that into Chinese markets is a little too much for them to overlook these days. Well apparently the way that this OPEC agreement or this OPEC plus agreement works is that if companies produced less than their quotas allow, they may roll the difference forward from June up to the third quarter, and so you know. Let's say. You're able to pump or under the quota four hundred sixteen thousand barrels a day, and you decide to cap your volume. It's very drop at three hundred seventy six thousand barrels a day. So that's forty thousand barrels a day. You can shift over, so that may be counting for part of this ramp up than we see because you're going from three hundred seventy six thousand barrels a day in June, two, four, hundred, twenty, nine, thousand in July, two, four, hundred, sixty, five, thousand in August, so that may be where part of the equation sits right now. Yeah I! Don't pretend to understand what Norway strategy would be or something like that, but I imagine that it has something to do with the. Gap in the market that the other OPEC. Members are leaving with their reduced production, and the price increases that they're pushing through However, this is a topic for another day. I suppose, but there do seem to be some some cracks in the facade of China's surging demand as well. While I will say one of their thing here about Norway, and this is just a little bit of an exclusive tidbit, but we are in the process of serving and gathering data for our summer drilling forecast for the remainder of the year and I can tell you that we have heard something early from Norway through the government. And based on what they're telling us. It looks like the number of whales that'll be drilled Norway. This year will only be down twelve percent roughly from what they were last year, so there's a little bit of a look ahead and I find that very interesting in itself a look forward to seeing more about that. When the forecast comes out later on in the summer, now begin of OPEC and production targets. Libya, which has been a member of the OPEC for since the beginning, and in the past was a major contributor to OPEC's production capacity has been really taken almost completely off line. In the course of this civil war they've been. Struggling with past several months, but it looks like there may be some light at the end of that tunnel for Libyan people, and with that a chance to bring on ring back online some of that oil production. Indeed, there was an announcement that that there might be some resumption of the oil production from eastern Libya the tribes as they're referred to over there. have said that there's been some negotiations between regional governments in that country and the US mediating to try to help a restart some experts from the country It does say here that those tribes are backing that rebel commander Khalifa half tars Libya national. Army has negotiated with the UN over distribution of oil revenue. This announcement also came after National Oil Corporation. Acknowledged that it was in talks with the. UN recognized government in Tripoli. Along with the US and some other middle, eastern countries, so this is an ongoing situation It obviously is not nailed down yet, but if you're looking for experts to resume from Libya, this is a hopeful sign. It's the first decent news that's come out in a while. Yes it looks like their exports, said Vaughn to less than one hundred thousand barrels a day from down from one point one million barrels now. The catch of course is the fact that those fields have been left. Fallow this entire time prior to the blockades that some of the opponents of half our had set up for the in in the ports for the oil tankers. The different forces were turning valves on and off to start and stop flow to the ports. So one can only imagine what sort of sorry shape the Libyan structure is in I I'm sure it's not going to be as simple as everyone agreed to turn the taps back on, and then everything's back to normal. That's right and You know the problem being unlike a lot of the fields in us that are predominantly shale we're talking about mostly conventional wells over Libya, and those are a little trickier to bring back on a lot of things can start to go wrong with a well once. It should information about six months so I dare say there's GonNa be some remedial work in a number of the fields that they're going to get that right back up. Yonder kind of closed the thought on OPEC. It looks like Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad bin. Bin Salman has had to take it upon himself to do a little bit of arm, twisting to keep some of their more recalcitrant members in line with the OPEC plus a production cuts, I guess he got his counterpart the President of Nigeria on the phone yesterday, and they had a chit chat about what it means to be a member of OPEC, and how to comply with the agreement. Yeah wouldn't have just loved to have been on the line when this conversation went on between these two the crown prince. is not known for being subtle. So we can only imagine what was said to the the Nigerian president, but it's in Nigeria's best interest to find a way to try to comply as much as they can As part of the greater picture here It says Nigeria should pump about one point three seven million barrels of crude oil a day next month to meet as OPEC quota, but exports alone that have been set up for the month of July are already at one point three eight, plus then you've got whatever else is used for domestic consumption so Obviously, they've got to narrow the gap and I assume that's what the message was from the Crown Prince yesterday You've got to get those exports down from at one point three eight million day. Nigeria has we have mentioned his. You know regularly strayed from its Plus or OPEC quotas over the last several years they've had a number of problems with the economy over there. It's very weak. hard share of and economies, depending upon oil revenues, so on the one hand the earn Klina pump as much as they can to generate revenue on the other hand. They need to think about the fact that if they would just throttle back a little bit, you would get the price up enough that they would make up the difference and then some, but you gotta wonder if they really run that equation. Well you know I. think that this the timing of this call may be auspicious because I know that the Nigerians have been. Going through some challenges on the the banking side of the House with their sovereign finances, and they've been able to to straighten that out, so they were indeed physician to where they had no choice, but to pump as much as they could just to raise hard currency, but they put a number of different policies fiscal policies in place to help remediate that so I think it. Is a good a good thing for them that they're having this conversation now in a month ago because it would have ended merck very much differently so hopefully they're in a position to adhere to that and keep everybody in the OPEC plus alliance satisfied for the time being at least. Reliance ride in one of the thing that's worth mentioning is the fact that. Overall implementation of the OPEC plus a cord has been fairly good at standing about eight seven percent as of last month so if they could get Nigeria to cooperate a little more, you could easily get that implementation rate at ninety percent or above, and that would be almost a record. I think for anything that hope is ever done, so that's worth noting yeah absolutely. So! That's the side of the house when we think about on a national level. What are these countries? OPEC or Trying to do with their own production rates, and there's a little bit of divergence among them there, but also on an operator level there are some different strategies. Taking place and Kurt there seemed to be a couple of them. They're taking place right now. That show two different sides of the coin on what a company may do, and they think about the current oil prices and oil demand with pandemic et Cetera et Cetera. so kind of Philips is the first one we saw real. Yeah, that's right and You know really. This is a situation where you'd literally have to go company by company and look at what the situation is with each of these companies, because there are so many different factors. And differences in their producing portfolios and in different places in executive attitudes. In what kind of strategy is they want to implement so? We take Hanako Phillips's is just an example here or they've decided to restore some their curtail production now going to bring back output in Alaska They're also going to bring back out in some other states and then they're Canadian. Production will come back in the third quarter. So You know we've we've had already. Continental Resources said it would bring back some portion of its curtail production in July We've also had statements from Parsley, energy and Eulogy Resources All of them are going to bring back at least a portion of their output during the month to July. Now how much remains to be seen? CONACO did say it would pump the equivalent of nine, hundred, sixty, thousand, nine, hundred eighty thousand barrels a day during the quarter that ends at ended on Tuesday. On June thirtieth so We'll have to see how much more they go above that. But yeah, you really at this point. We have to go company by company, and our comments have to be geared specifically to that company. Because you, each one is a little bit different right now. Yeah, yeah, and current. What is Conoco's exposure to You mentioned they're going to bring production back online and Alaska and Canada. That's not the Permian or the Balkan. Do. They have a lot of exposure there, so they'd be sort of following the same playbook as the companies you mentioned like continental etc or Are they really sort of a a separate entity from from those types of companies. We'll let that's exactly what I was talking about. In terms of each company is a specific case, all its own in a case of CONACO Phillips. They're not quite as depended on shale production as some the other companies. We've just mentioned, so you've really got a portion of the company that is shield oriented, and you got another portion, as is the case with Alaska and Canada where it's not so much, you know it's not. She'll oriented so in their case, it's more of a hybrid strategy. You've got two distinct. Pieces of their output. And as opposed to somebody like continental, that's heavily heavily dependent on shale. Right, Gotcha okay, thank you for that. So, that's sort of what the the company's again the she'll. Types of companies are thinking about restoring production dialing back in their curtailments, conical Phillips following that to a degree with some more conventional plays, and then you have shows big announcement on Tuesday about some multibillion dollar writedown. They're going to explore due to declining demand for crude. Thanks for the coronavirus. Yeah, we've got a situation here. This just phenomenal Royal Dutch Shell announced on Tuesdays. It's going to write down between fifteen billion and twenty two billion dollars in the second quarter alone as a company tries to figure out how to deal with You know what's happening with demand from the grow to virus as well as of course, market, pricing and You know They're. Here to here really tells the story. Oil Products sales in downstream obviously. Those volumes are only going to be three point five million to four point five million barrels a day in the second quarter that is down from six point six million barrels a day of product sales a year ago. Wow, so that. is at the heart of this, but it's more than that is. Just you know obviously lack of oil and product demand is number one thing here, but there's other problems as well in the market pricing for upstream operations is been rather hideous. Shell said that it's upstream unit. which is what they say, traditionally, the company's core business will suffer a loss in the second quarter. That's not a surprise This division is strung out all over the globe. Literally you've got North American shale. You've got Brazilian assets. You've got production over in Asia in in places as diverse as Brunei. literally got production all over a number of comments in so. As a whole other going to take an impairment charge four billion to six billion dollars. That's out of the fifteen to twenty two billion toll. This this alone is gonNA. Come out of the upstream. So really drastic action by one of the Super Majors you can see it in their stock price which has been flying now. It's somewhere in the mid thirties per share. that's it significantly from where it used to be just really a rough time for one of the premier. Companies in the industry. And, they're one of the premier offshore companies in the industry, and that's one of the oil and gas based Kurt. That doesn't get talked much about these days is what is happening with these longer term high-capitalization cost projects in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere Kurt. What is your take on all that? You're probably in a unique position to have an opinion on this? We talk a lot about what she'll. Companies are doing, and and what's going to happen with these land operations. How is all this tumbled going to affect offshore oil and gas exploration? All the one thing that the offshore has going for it is that all of those projects are longer term of propositions so once you get them going. It's hard to stop them completely now we've seen cases of some field development projects underway, where because of corona virus, concerns among the workers work was literally stopped, agreed example, being the West White Rose Project off Newfoundland where the operator of put a stop to construction of. Of A gravity based platform at least temporarily, but no, it's It's it's a problem. Particularly for the expiration side of things that that's probably the easiest to stop. You know you can sail K.. We're going to drill a well at such and such a date in as the circumstances have declined they get to the point and say okay, never mind. We don't need that rig right now. We're just gonNA forego that well. of course then you get into the whole thing about what the contractual obligations are with individual rigs, and if you've got to pay a penalty and how much all that but. yeah, it's It's easier to stop the expiration. It's harder to stop the field development projects, but they can at least slow them down. A string them out a little bit. and. you know as far as the longer term I still think in the longer term that if we have enough production knocked out in various countries. That were actually going to have at some point later on a supply squeeze and then all of a sudden. You won't see everything ramp back up. Unfortunately. There's no way to time this out especially with this corona virus. It's just impossible to know, but in the longer term at some point, you're going to see a ramp up of activity again. Problem is in the meantime. Things are really really thin. Particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and other offshore basins around the planet right now. Yeah we on Sunday. We talked about what the rig count was mean for. The ability for the industry to respond in the longer term, and so when I think about you know how long these big offshore projects take, and how much effort goes in before any actual work happens offshore. I have to imagine that this is such a long tail. The by the time we see it start to wag, it'll be. It'll be too late to turn things around so I guess we'll be just have to watch and see what happens with the offshore side. Maybe if things recover swiftly enough, it'll happen so fast that there won't be any time for the offshore side of things to downturn too much and just continues on, but we must be Kurt approaching the inflection point to where this start having some really serious long-term effects on offshore side. Or less were wiki thinking, and of course the meantime you've got to be very concerned about the health of number of the drilling contractors It's conceivable that if we don't get at least some uptick and some improvement pretty quick here. The at some of these companies may not be able to continue, and that would really be a sad loss of capability and infrastructure especially if you're going to need it. Somewhere down the line here so. You know one would hope that governments in several countries including the US would be paying attention to that, but given some of the other things going on right now who knows? There are a few things happening in the world as for sure. But we'll keep an eye on on that side of the house, and then when we catch up again on Sunday will look at the latest rig count looks like we had been seeing. The the recount has been continuing to slide, but it's it's kind of leveling off a little bit, so we'll see on Sunday how those numbers look, and maybe there'll be some positive information there, and then we'll also just see what is developing with our friends and OPEC and then the related companies as they try to sit their strategy for the rest of the summer. So with that Kurt thanks very much for joining us on the show. Today and look forward to talking to you again real soon. All right, thank you cameron. Thanks for listening to the daily brief on the world oil podcast network. If you have any questions or comments on the program, please email editorial at world, oil, dot, com, and check. The show notes for more information about today's episode. Don't forget to subscribe either on Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcast, also be sure to visit world oil dot com for more information about today's stories and sign up for our free daily newsletter.
4 million Italians head back to work
"The first country in the world to order a nationwide corona virus lockdown eases restrictions. Live from London. This is the marketplace morning report from the BBC World Service. I'm Victoria Craig. Good morning an estimated four million people in Italy are heading back to work today. They can move more freely within their region. Go to reopen parks and get restaurant takeout. That's after the country recorded. The lowest daily rise in deaths on Sunday since lockdown measures were imposed two months ago. The Prime Minister warned Italians not to squander progress but as the BBC's Mark Lowen reports the shutdown is already leaving deep economic scars. The region round Naples has four times the unemployment of the north of Italy. And at least one in five work in the black cash-in-hand so have been crushed by the lockdown with taken there by the police three massive concrete and wires and broken glass it is really an image of social decay. This crisis has once again brought long standing problems to the surface of organized crime. Preying on hardship. These are the kinds of concerns that many other puppeteer hit areas far beyond Italy. Likely to face which we've risked everything to survive says Philomena. We already had nothing. They stopped us from working. They shot everything down now. What is left to die of hunger? This isn't a life carpenter F. I. L. tells me there's been lots more crime since the lockdown even kids dealing drugs and cars since there's no work and they need to eat across town and Fighting. The resurgence of organized crime is the NGO Tura working in a building seized from the neopolitan Mafia the camera. They may come boxes of food for those in need to stop the Mafia stepping instead. It's run by a priest. Luigi Mandala come on is taking advantage of this current vacuum. They've always exploited Italy's moments of weakness. They provide help to people but then ask them to deal drugs in exchange or give them money in the heart of old Naples musical gratitude from a recipient of social initiative baskets hung from a balcony. In which those who can donate food and those who need it take it out for free. It's run by and Jalopy Connor Component. We're just a temporary solution to fill the VOID BY THE GOVERNMENT. Which hasn't been present any still getting organized? If everything goes well it will take a year to recover how who live until then. This is a health crisis. That's become a social and economic one. Playing out is the Swan Song of lockdown. That's halted the virus but wounded this country. Mark Lowen reporting from southern Italy there will other European nations including Portugal Spain. Croatia and Greece are also taking steps to lift their lockdowns today. Small shops some schools. Hairdressers and restaurants can reopen. That's as world leaders turned more focused to finding a treatment or vaccine for Cova Nineteen. Today they're invited to an online pledge. Drive which is the brainchild of European Commission president or cylinder line the BBC Stephen Riot has more. Dr Vendor Lyon has set a goal to raise eight billion dollars for research and development of a corona virus vaccine and do you officials say she's been busy calling dozens of world leaders to ask them to pledge support. This event is backed by G. Twenty countries including the UK France and Germany. They're keen to boost scientific resources and expertise even further than at present but the US. China India and Russia are not expected to take part the European Commission. President has many other obstacles to overcome. Not least over tensions between EU countries on a coordinated approach to corona virus. What they are clear on is ensuring universal access to vaccine particularly for developing countries. The window donations now runs until late. May then the real marathon begins over. How money is allocated on the BBC Stephen Ryan for marketplace a quick check of financial markets. This morning London's footsie. One hundred is down two tenths of a percent as US stock futures. Slide one percent to head of the opening bell on Wall Street Continental European benchmarks which were closed for a public holiday on Friday are tumbling more than three percent. That's as fresh figures showed. Euro-zone manufacturing activity contracted in March to its lowest level since nineteen seven when records began. Meanwhile investors fear a flare up in tensions between the US and China amid controversy over where the corona virus pandemic originated and China's handling of the outbreak will months of lockdown restrictions have threatened the future of the airline industry and IT'S FORCED BILLIONAIRE INVESTOR Warren Buffett to sell all of his shares in four Major. Us Air carriers today though to European airlines have been handed lifelines the BBC's delegate reports Norwegian a- wants a pioneer of low cost long haul travel had come ahead breadth from collapse. The Norwegian government agreed to offer a financial lifeline. Worth two hundred ninety million dollars but only if the carrier could reach a deal with its lenders to reduce substantial debts. That's now been achieved. Although as a result the company will be largely owned by its creditors with existing shareholders maintaining only a small stake. Meanwhile the European Commission has given the go-ahead to a bailout plan for Air France. Klm which will see the French government provide loans and loan guarantees for the company worth seven billion euros Franz. Klm says the money will help it to overcome the current crisis and prepare for the future. Bbc's the alleged they're finally J. Crew has filed for chapter eleven bankruptcy protection today amid a restructuring day to day operations will continue. Shoppers can still buy through. E commerce platforms which account for half of total revenue and retail stores will reopen as health restrictions. Ease in London. I'M VICTORIA CRAIG. With the marketplace morning report from the BBC World Service.
Tax and snacks, overtime and 'prime' time
"This. Marketplace podcast is brought to you by the university of Florida Warrington college of business transform your future with an MBA from one of America's top ten universities. Learn more at Warrington dot ufl dot EDU slash MBA. Market players and many people looking for a job or a better job will be listening out for the government's big set of employment reports due in about an hour and a half. I'm David Brancaccio in New York. This morning's jobs reports will cover February after a strong January on average two hundred thirty thousand more people have been getting onto payrolls each month as marketplace's Mitchell Hartman reports among those seeing gains people in their prime working years. People aged twenty five to fifty four are in their prime earning and career building years now as massive layoffs swept the economy in the great recession their participation in the labor force plummeted says least Gould at the Economic Policy Institute and many people thought they were going to be these permanently sideline workers that would never make their way back. But as the economy recovered prime age workers did start coming back and since August with unemployment at or below four percent and. Lieber shortages spreading their participation has spiked back to near pre recession levels rising wages have been enticing. These sidelined workers back in and Michael strain. At the American Enterprise Institute says employers changing some of their hiring practices businesses are less likely to require drug tests for marijuana use. For example, they're hiring more people with a criminal record or disability as well. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. And we have a new jobs report page find out about the latest jobs data this morning and learn how those numbers are calculated consult marketplace dot ORG, which salaried workers are eligible to get paid overtime. Now. There's an ongoing debate about what the salary cut off should be the Labor Department has just proposed moving at higher. Marketplace's Eric barris is on the story today. Erica what's the current rule? The current rules say workers who make less than twenty four thousand dollars have to be. Paid extra for overtime. This proposal would boost that to thirty five thousand that that would cover just over a million workers in industries like retail fast, food, nonprofits. So if this rule goes through a salaried assistant manager who gets paid safe thirty thousand dollars would make time and a half or working more than forty hours a week or their bosses could increase their salary to get over the new cap, but remember covering this during the Obama administration. I think Yep. That's right in two thousand sixteen President Obama had a similar proposal, but for a higher amount about forty eight thousand dollars, and that one was pegged to inflation that was halted by federal judge before it went into effect. Ruling the White House didn't have authority for such a big increase gives a sense of the timeframe. So this is just a proposal subject to a sixty day comment, period. And then a final version would be written and sent to the office of management and budget for approval so sometime Eric barris. Thank you. Let's do the numbers. Dow futures are down four tenths percent. London's footsie index down. One percent. Crude oil traded in New York down one point six percent in part because the economies of Europe and China keep looking weak, and this business story isn't just irony. It's a trillion dollar irony. The Norwegian government has decided to divest oil and gas stocks in the country's trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund that wealth is in large part due to Norway's North Sea oil and gas business now the country's finance minister today. Call this hedge if someday oil prices drop and stay low Norway doesn't wanna lose both the oil revenue and the value in its investment portfolio at the same time. Hi, I'm Zach and I listened to marketplace in Arlington Virginia. I think what I appreciate the most about marketplace's their ability to take the economic news of the day issues such as tariffs rate hikes and tax reform cut through the political noise. And clearly and concisely explained not only how these issues affect our country and the rest of the world, but how they impact people like me he'll kill consider. Joining me as marketplace investor and donate today at marketplace dot org to help make their work possible. That's marketplace podcast is brought to you by with Sabi. Hot cloud storage. If your company's thinking about moving data storage to the cloud checkout, the company that's rethinking cloud storage with Sabi is less expensive than just the maintenance on your current on premises storage. Plus, it's eighty percent cheaper and six times faster than Amazon S three with no egress fees. Experience. It for yourself with free unlimited storage for a month. Go to Assab dot com. Click free trial and use the offer code Sabi. Sometimes Olga Erica and Peter here in the newsroom bringing gummy bears, but generally the marketplace New York bureau here is snack free. Not so other companies, which brings us to a discussion of cleric creativity and tax policy writer, Jamie, Lauren Kayla's wrote a New York Times piece about this. Welcome. All thanks for having me excited to talk about snacks. First of all good old American ingenuity, you found that clever workers figured out how to turn free nibbles to into meals. Yeah. So I was working on a temporary contract at vox the website. And this is my first time working in an office. I've worked freelance for about five years. So when I got there the biggest surprise to me was that I could eat all as many next. I wanted every day and figured out a bunch of different ways to combine them my colleagues who sat across the desk. She was telling me how she sometimes makes a pizza with things from the office. So she takes the free bread. And then she puts either like some Saracho, or if she has some tomatoes or pasta sauce, baby bell. Cheeses, those little wax, wrapped cheeses toasts it and then puts a little bit of parmesan cheese to make work pizza. She calls it you're talking to an Italian American here. I'm not sure it's that that's my idea of pizza. But look, here's the marketplace question companies can deduct the cost of snacks. But there are limits on deducting the cost of meals for the staff. Yes. So employers are allowed to provide meals for their employees, but they can't just give you free meals every day because that's for the benefit of the employees, and is basically a form of income that would be taxable. But snacks it turns out phone to this third category of perks condominum fringe benefits. And these perks are basically what the IRS doesn't tax because it's too confusing. The ad them up. So employers can create a tax deduction for themselves by offering free snacks, which then makes their employees happier. But also they can write the cost of the snacks off on their taxes in the big federal tax overhaul last year. Snacks got nailed. Yeah. I mean, it's sort of too soon to tell but under the tax cuts and jobs act. Act now employers can only talk half the cost of workplace snacks. And over. The course of the next decade that is going to be phased out. So employees are going to pay more for them. Now back to the question of why companies do snacks at all. You mentioned workplace morale. But would it be cynical as to suppose? It's because the boss doesn't want the lost productivity. If I ever leave the office for twelve minutes to get a bite. Yeah. I mean, you see these places like Google where they give you everything at working in a haircut, you can work out at the gym. Like, I think there's definitely an incentive to keep people at the office longer, but I can't speak for every employer. But like if motive is profit than it seems like you'd want to get as much as you cannot have your employees, right? Jamie. Lauren Kayla's has just written about snacks and meals in the workplace and the tax implications in the New York Times is Kayla. Thank you. Thank you so much for having me her time species called at startups. The free lunch is yours for the making our. Our executive producer, Nicole Childers. Our digital producer is Miguel chair us or engine near Brian Alison, I'm David Brancaccio with the marketplace morning before it. From APM American public media.
Falling out of love with ketchup
"This marketplace podcast is supported by indeed. Are you hiring with indeed you can post a job in minutes set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist qualified candidates using an online dashboard you'd get started today and indeed dot com slash marketplace that's indeed dot com slash marketplace this marketplace podcast is brought to capital one with the spark cashcard from capital one you're unlimited two percent cashback on all your business purchases think about it unlimited two percent cashback on everything you buy for your business and that cash back and add up to thousands of dollars would you can reinvest reinvest back into your business so you can keep growing learn more capital one dot com capital one what's in your wallet a blanket of thick smog has engulfed. India's he has capital making air quality hazardous live from London this is the marketplace morning report from the BBC World Service. I'm Victoria Craig. Good morning schools in Delhi have closed flights lights have been diverted due to poor visibility and a health emergency has been declared as hospitals tend to an uptick in patients with respiratory problems it's all due to worsening small conditions as the BBC's Vegas Pandy Explains Dili's one of the most polluted cities because of the number of cars and factories but it gets really bad in the month of November because farmers in neighboring states burn crops double and the smoke from those farms comes to Delhi and because of the low wind pressure just hangs in there what adds adds to it as the investment of value and lot of people set off firecrackers and there have been some measures that have been introduced to try to alleviate the smog problem from today day officials have launched scheme which essentially means rationing of Carso today's fourth which is an even date so only even number car plate can drive today today and tomorrow which is an odd day only those that have odd number plate contrive but then there are serious questions whether these measure can actually bring down pollution because this is not the first it has been done in Delhi now we've seen schools closed flights delayed people might have trouble getting to work today what kind of impact could all of this have on an already slowing Konami in India a lot of people who were outdoors in the informal sector people who deliver goods people who bring your pizza's homes a lot of that kind of work is going to get affected because people are simply not able to work out those that ABC's Vikas Pandy in New Delhi thank you thank you well from the environmental impact of fireworks and burning brush in India to aviation Va Shin now which accounts for two percent of global carbon emissions by twenty fifty the European Union wants to see the industry slash emissions by seventy five percent biofuels could could be key to meeting that target and the BBC's Katie Prescott reports Norway's Oslo Airport is leading the way also athletes one of very few places where planes Kham fill up with bio fuels the Norwegian government says that in the next ten years ooh planes refueling here lead to thirty percent of it in that tank ball we are central fueling facility at Lassen runs the Carbon Reduction Program for the Operator Avenue we've started that project in two thousand in sixteen when also wear became the first national hub in the world where sustainable jet biofuel was available on a commercial basis plants household rubbish even the dregs of the deep fat fry can all make a few it produces up to eighty percent fewer emissions than traditional fuel and and can be dropped straight into an airplane tank but because production so limited by fuel can be three or four times more expensive than fossil fuels the solution Scandinavian Airlines has come up with is to ask their customers to chip in my name is slow on the trigger head over sustainability so what you've done is Rav oven raised the cost of tickets across the board you put a little option when your customers check in giving passengers the option in the hope that a significant significant number of them will choose to pay the extra that will probably across but it means that you're not having to raise your ticket prices when your competitors aren't exacly in my position I would love to have it integrated into the price but I do realize that if we are ten twenty thirty percents more expensive than our competitors that will be a problem for our prophet relative and this shows just how expensive going green can be to achieve reduction in emissions of the kind that the industry wants we'll take the intervention of governments around the world willing to follow noise example that will create the demand for greater production but in the meantime the end of cheap Hafez is maybe the price that passengers have to pay in Oslo. I'm the BBC's Katie Scott for marketplace let's do the numbers the European bellwether stock six hundred index hit an almost two year high this morning on U. S. China trade optimism shares of McDonald's meanwhile are down two point three percent pre-market that's after the Chief Executive Steve Easterbrook step down yesterday for violating company policy engaging in a consensual relationship with an employee elsewhere Saudi Arabia state oil company. Aramco confirmed it will list shares on the country's stock exchange have you ever been at a fancy restaurant and caught in this situation you could just there was something missing so I reached my bag take out the only thing that we can completely point the whole welcome to stop that's British Crooner Ed Sheeran in an ad for Heinz Ketchup if you haven't guessed it already it was a big bottle of the red condiment he plucked from his bag and shook all over his fancy farm-to-table meal it turns out though not everyone feels about catch up the way Mr Sharon does global demand has been steadily weakening including in Canada the biggest import market Christina Nanny from IHS Markets Agribusiness Intelligence Unit explains why us was the main exporter of catch Ghana Dan and in a two thousand fourteen hanes decided to close a tomato processing plant in Ontario Patio and moved all the Canadian operation to the US Canadian didn't like much this move and some competitors in the country took advantage started marketing in campaign settling Tomato Ketchup made one hundred percent out of Canadian tomato so it's not that Canadians are eating ketchup they're just eating eggs softly acceptably so it's not about consumption. They are importing less but traits bad to side global demand for ketchup is still weakening yeah there is low donning demand on for automotive products generally and catch up is not an exception the problem here is just that tomato is not perceived by consumer says a healthy ingredients and this is particularly true for Ketchup there have been trend of processor placing on the market for example organic ketchup Oh catch up with less sold will we see more innovation in ketchup production because of changing consumer habits yes there is also another trend that in countries where there is still demand for catch up up there are some process rather than import catch up from other countries they import tomato paste and reprocess to meet demand within the domestic market Okay Christina Noni from the Agribusiness Intelligence Unit at IHS thank you thank you very much well healthier not. I'm still a big fan of catch up but what about you tell us with the Hashtag. BBC See marketplace in London. I'm Victoria Craig with the marketplace morning report from the BBC World Service this marketplace podcast is brought to you by the capital one spark cashcard offering unlimited two percent cashback on all of your business purchases learn more at capital one dot com capital one. What's in your wallet.
The Best of Tall Stories 2018
"Hello. I'm Andrew talkin. You're listening to the oven est or monocle twenty four. Now, we've decided to kick off the new year with the very best from twenty eighteen hardly any visitor will go more than a few hours without desperately seeking a moment of quiet inside one of the city's Rondi retreats. We take a look back at the best tool stories from the year gone by including thriving garden in the middle of the desert and a former government building in Oslo with the Picasso on its facade all that much more in the next thirty minutes with me, Andrew talk. Stay tuned. We started out to through some of the best horror stories of the past year and Morocco during spring Monaco's Kiara Ramallah took us to Marrakech to reveal the secret behind his plant filled courtyards, and as we found out the city in the middle of the desert could become a haven for gardens such as the peaceful Jadan secret. The road from Mara cash to the atlas mountains is about fifty kilometers long. It's an hour's drive more or less and one that zooms only straight through a rosy. Rocky doesn't seen from any of the city's flat rooftops. These mighty mountains may will look like a Mirage with this snowy tips, they seemingly belong continents away from the baking heat of the Medina yet. They stand proudly close enough to provide more than just an escape from unbearably sunny days. What the atlas have given our cash easy access do for the last millennium is far more important resource water without the city would not be very different from the baron land, which surrounds it. But inside it's courtyards and within its palaces walls, Marrakesh, hides palms plants and flowers that stubbornly defy the dry terrain. Marrakesh is gardens defined as city just as much as it's maze. Like roads. Hardly any visitor will go more than a few hours without desperately seeking a moment of quiet inside one of the city's from the retreats outside people scooters children bikes constantly rush through stalls Laden with pomegranates bread and all manner of vegetables, they whiz spas, shopfronts covered in plates teapots interest dot but inside the gardens the noise stops not much of them. The Russell of the wind and the soft pouring fountain. This stubs a sit down in the shade of a party. It was only because of the productivity of the atlas mountains that the imperial Amara. Vid dynasty decided to bring a system of irradiation Tamara cash the first kit thera, a network of underground tunnels and wells was built in eleven o seven to transport water from the aquifers on the Neath the mountains all the way to the city's only garden residents where ecstatic the water they said gave the city an air of sparkling brilliance mortgage. Fires were added Mogens planted an atmosphere of sophistication spread through the city. The system eventually grew to feed the city's mosques public hamams and fountains but for centuries having water flow into the grounds of a private home remained, prestigious privilege, an unmistakable symbol of wealth. Only Marrakesh is richest were able to afford it families like those who would come to inhabit the grandiose palace on ROY Moore seen in a nineteenth century one of the biggest in the. Whole medina. This. Majestic Riyadh had two courtyards a ham of its own and vast during pavilion at seventeen metoo stole its tower was almost as high as some of the city's minarets, but perhaps most importantly, it had a magnificent garden its owner, the Cade allege allow OB he didn't get to enjoy it very long suspected of political intrigue. He was killed with poison t his beautiful home started passing from one powerful hand to the other until in nineteen thirty four it stopped being looked after at all by two thousand and eight it had turned into a melancholy ruin only a few stubborn date plants still grew in its grounds. Yet. Life was not to stop flowing in these gardens that same year British landscape architecture. Tom Stuart Smith was called into rethink and restore them an eight long years later, the host finally reopened it stores with a new name the job on secret the secret garden, everything from stuccos, two tiles and walls whispery up, but the two courtyards returned the hoses deservedly central feature the so-called exotic garden was the host plants sourced anywhere from Mexico to Matt Augusta the traditional Islamic garden. Instead brought in Morocco's romantic bounty. Lavender Rosemary, fig olive and orange trees were chosen for this section. And even if the narrow channels running through these monarchial patches, no longer carry water flowing in from the atlas the system running between these basins is still the same ancient one of the buildings beginnings. If you look hard enough in some of the Riyadh's nooks and crannies you'll see. The pipes and reserve was that still ensure these plants survive in Marrakesh is boiling summers. Perhaps this is really is gotten biggest and most fascinating secret. Monaco's Kiara Malehda in Marrakesh stay with us after this is my turn to head south. Well, just south of the Thames here in London is the story of a brutal wonder built by the architect. Sudanese lassen. Why not take a wonder into the wonderful world of Monaco with an annual print subscription you'll receive ten issues of the magazine year plus are seasonal specials. The forecast and the escapist subscribes to our one year, plus and premium packages, also receive our new annual the Monaco drinking and dining directory, and that's not all age of our plans comes with a free tote bag delivered to your door. We invite all fans of the Ernest de-subscribe today and receive a special ten percent discount on any of our year long. Subscriptions, simply visit Markle dot com forward slash urban est. That's never been a better time to sign up Monaco, keeping an eye and an air on the wall. London's national theatre is perfection. In concrete is the work of the architect sedans last, and it was completed in one thousand nine hundred seventy six, but this story is about the recent fetishes ation of brutalism is not about the power of theater. Not only nor the role of the Southbank in London's cultural life. It's about light touch dark sanctuary and rare focus and perhaps an ice cream in the good. I've been going to the national for three decades and seem Shakespeare on time and numerous star turns I've mostly seen things I've loved occasionally plays have been sleeping juicing. And sometimes a play that shakes you against the sea of troubles. There's something about that theatre that no matter the quality of the production. Just makes you feel good safe and away from the world. It begins with me leaving my house or work and crossing over Waterloo bridge to reach the theater, you have to turn your back on the city cross the muddy depths of the Thames and leave at least some of the day behind. Then down some stairs. And there you are on the broad Southbank promenade where life somehow unfolds the more leisurely pace walking lock, Tom seniors or foot pumping skateboarders. Then into the nationals vast lobby where lip staining, red wine and flap jacks being consumed by a crowd. The crosses ages. Ready looks done up for night-out. Let's join them in a glass as we see the sun slink down through the epic windows. Tonight. We're seeing a play in the national theaters little space and hear those nice up hosted seats that you know. So well, there's just time to either crowd and guess at their lives when United here then phones off lights down and. Tonight is performance of network and the story of the news anchor gets angry. But there's something else. The fuck of a day is eased off like a discarded jacket people begin to laugh and move the gentle synchronicity, and you you're in a different world. Your mind finds a rare reset to clarity you are here. And in the dark all is good. In may Asia bureau chief urine Wilson to to the very heart of Tokyo to tell us the story of the Suziki Honganji or but his temple right next. What was one of the world's biggest fish markets, which is sad packed up and moved elsewhere. In the meantime, let's listen. If you were trying to picture, a traditional Japanese temple, it probably wouldn't look anything like squeegee Honganji and yet this Buddhist temple in the heart of Tokyo is rich in history. The story. Cagey Honganji starts sixty and seventeen when the head of the mother temple in Kyoto established a branch temple in Sakha in Tokyo, or does it was known them like so many buildings that first temple went up in flames in the great far of sixteen fifty seven, and when it came to rebuilding the shogun's had other plans for the site and offer the temple instead a dump plot of land on the shore which had yet to be reclaimed from the sea. The project was undertaken by the temples devoted followers and the new building which was finished in sixteen. Seventy nine was known as ski g Goebel ski g meaning reclaimed land. That area is still known as ski g and it is here that the temple still stands next to the world's biggest fish market. The main hall that was built for Honganji on the ski g site had a huge sloping roof. It was one of older does great landmarks and a beacon for shifts entering the port of Tokyo. That building was destroyed in the Great Kanto Earthquake of nineteen twenty three and was replaced in nine hundred thirty four with the current building a striking temple designed by to ITO an architecture. Professor at Tokyo University the abbot asked ITO to build something inspired by India. The birthplace of Buddhism. So today. It's catchy Honganji has all the features of a regular Japanese temple the main hall the tower the drum tower and so on but in an unusual guys borrowing motifs from South Asian temples. It has round copper covered roof granite walls. Carved elephants on the staircases and monkeys on the walls, the hybrid style continues with Lotus flowers and stained glass above the door and a German-made organ with two thousand pipes that was donated to the temple in nineteen seventy. The temple is a lively place of worship open every day from six AM, the smell of incense is unmissable. And if you drop by in the morning, you might cut your service with two dozen months chanting visitors are encouraged to take a seat sketchy Honganji is an important central. Put is learning. It's style of Buddhism is called judo Shinshu or true pure land. But is dates back to the thirteenth century today. Jodo Shinshu is one of the largest schools of Buddhism in Japan with more than ten thousand temples. Last year, a new information center and a Buddhist bookshop were added with a smart new cafe the deluge of tourists now flocking to the fish market has increased the numbers of visitors to Honganji two guests are welcomed warmly and services are held in English on the fourth Saturday of every month. A rarity in Tokyo, lunchtime organ concerts, feature everything from classical pieces to Buddhist songs and the free to all. Many visitors come out of ski station and make a bee line for the famous fish market. But if they pause for a moment, they'll discover there is another piece of Tokyo history right in front of them. If you're a regular set to multiple twenty four you'll know that we've just opened a new bureau in Los Angeles. So with that in mind, let's take you back to La Land. For this tool story proudly sitting in the downtown area of LA, the Disney concert hall is hard to miss in the shape of ships and sales the three and a half acre complex they fully at first. But it's sharp imposing stainless steel edges. But once inside the tone is change and the whole becomes warm and inviting opening doors in two thousand and three sixteen years after its initial commission we hear how the construction the console was anything, but plain sailing. Welcome to the music center and our Walt Disney concert hall. Mine. Aim is Howard Sherman. I'm the executive vice president and chief operating officer here. I also have the privilege of being the unofficial historian of the music center because I've been here for more than thirty years, and if a deep seated love this place. Villian disney. Walt's widow gave a transformative fifty million dollar cash gift to the music center in the late nineteen eighties with the understanding that this would build the fourth theater of the music center. A home for the LA philharmonic in the master chorale, which would be acoustically perfect and represent MRs Disney's love of gardens after an international search for an architect. Frank Gehry, although Canadian we like to call him are homegrown Angelino because he's lived in Los Angeles for so long won the competition and became the architect of while Disney concert hall. Thursday, April thirtieth nineteen ninety two world news this morning continues for my Schneider. More wants to get our top story. This morning comes from Los Angeles following the verdict in the four police officers who were accused in the beating of motorist Rodney King. They were found not guilty of all the charges. Newsroom there has been a major earthquake in southern California. We are getting reports of locks of bama's to the buildings and the roadways. There are reports of live spread power outages. Gas leaks and land flock petition was one Frank design the building and then in the nineties we had the earthquake. We have thrived after the Rodney King verdict and the city sort of came to an economic halt the county of Los Angeles had committed to and completed the garage on which Walt Disney concert hall would be built and then everything stopped because fundraising needed to happen. Although the Disney gift was incredibly generous and Balare gift of its kind of the time between escalation time moving forward and the brilliance of Frank URI's design, obviously more money was going to be needed to be raised so alternately after the economic downturns subsided. A trio of three incredib-. Leaders the mayor at the time, Richard Reardon ally. Brody who's a well-known Los Angeles philanthropist, Andrew van decamp, who's chairman of the board of the music center. At the time said we have to fix this L A has to come back and the symbol of its resurrection will be the building of Walt Disney concert. Construction began we raised two hundred forty seven million dollars to complete the building of this building and Togo of two thousand three it'll heralded as an architectural success acoustically, it's been loud throughout the world is being one of the most perfect halls to perform. In fact, there are many artists who are terrified of performing in this hall because it is so acoustically perfect that it's fairly unforgiving. And if you're not at the top of your game, you'll hear that you're not at the top of your game because there is no hiding what you do in this room. Shortly after the building opened we realized that a very small portion of the building was causing reflective glare into certain areas. Ninety six percent of the building is finished with a brushed stainless. But about four percent of the building is finished with a shiny reflective stainless. And naturally, that's what was causing the problem is we did a complete study with UCLA doing a son positioning study looking at where the sun was in relation to the shiny surfaces of the concert hall over three hundred and sixty five day period. We then determined which of the panels were absolutely the most egregious causing the reflection and then worked with Frank Erie to determine a system to dole just those specific panels. It was one percent of the building like forty or fifty panels that we needed to go ahead and do a hand brushed. Treatment to we invited. The press did a whole big thing about it. And some of it is being good neighbours. We are downtown LA, and we are in what is rapidly becoming an incredibly residential area. So we want to respond to the neighborhood. And some of that was making sure that we weren't disturbing our neighbors by glare and reflection. When MRs Disney gave her gift she said she wanted to honor her husband and she wanted to things in the hall. She wanted it to be acoustically perfect and she wanted to represent her love of gardens. So to that end. Frank broad doctor Toyota from the beginning to make sure the KU sticks. Right. But he also designed gardens that are hidden throughout the building the third floor of this building has a complete exterior garden that wraps two sides of the building that when you are in you are in a complete urban oasis, you have no idea you were in the middle of downtown, Los Angeles, the designer designed the garden such that there was always something blooming. What you forget is that you are three stories up in the air and actually over all of the rehearsal spaces that are backstage at Walt Disney concert hall. I think my favorite spot in the hall is in. In the terrorist view seats, which are one flight of of the orchestra and behind the stage on stage left and stage. Right there are these idyllic little pods that are not expensive seats, and because of the acoustics of the building the sound is the same everywhere. So we're ever you sit in that room. You're gonna have the same experience. But if you sit in those terrorist few seats, you get a view of the conductor, you get a view of the audience, and you get a view of this magnificent room for creating performance and because of my unique position when it's empty. It's also the most reflective place at the attendant to sit and think and reflect the good the bad, the ugly the day the problems, and that's probably my favorite place in the building. That was how Shum and executive vice president and C O of the music center, an special thanks to Sam Impe for that report. Now is almost time for us to wrap up a grand tour of the very best tool stories of twenty teen bump before we do this time for a more is the story of a form of government building in Oslo left in limbo since the two thousand eleven terrorist attacks in no way, cool the white block twi- shape. The building's future is now out for debate with many believing it should be demolished bump this strong case in favor of his off textual value manage to the lodge mural on its facade designed by Pablo Picasso designed to Nolan Giles explains. It. On a snowy winters day last year. I find myself trudging through also city center when I saw building of such a striking nature. I was halted in my tracks a curved concrete, brutally structure some five stories high wrapped its way around a quiet corner of the city centre with a nod to the nineteen fifties built UNESCO headquarters in Paris and more than a hint of the net. Cassia style thrown into the design makes a new I was staring at this Mabo on close inspection meticulous detail of its architecture makeup became more. Parents the concrete that clambered around wooden window frames was given wolf by a rich pebble dash texture and one facade stood at giant fresco in a simple line drawn style. It was unmistakably work of all work very much inspired by Pablo Picasso, and it scaled writer into the sky. Humbled by my discovery dash to my appointment with always an architect who revealed that indeed the mural, featuring local fisherman casting the nets into the sea was Picasso's and the building itself known as why blocker or why block was formerly part of The Hague's Q of the Norwegian government, an architectural masterpiece from the nation's modernist era by Arlington Shah. But why were the windows all boarded up I asked and where the hordes of architectural. Appreciate is snapping its fine wools on the phones. And then I learned the tragic story of Vic Shas and Pasos masterpiece in two thousand eleven just one month after government consensus was reached to preserve the nineteen sixties building and its system building the hates block the Cobb attack. That marked the start of the nation's most horrific terrorist incident rip through two buildings all stored around three thirty. Friday afternoon Oslo the capital of Norway explosions from a car bomb rock several government buildings including the offices of the prime minister, killing at least seven people and injuring dozens more the bomb killed eight of the seventy seven people who amid in the bloodiest day in Norway's history since the second world will while both buildings were left, structurally, sounds security fears and the haunting memory of that day, a two of the reasons why the why block will soon meet the wrecking bowl as the Norwegian government plans to rebuild a new hedge Q on the sites, but many Oslo and far beyond fighting back for the y block. And when you dig a little deeper into its natural history. It's obvious why they're doing this. Despite those more conventionally minded seeing the building a bit of a brute, it's designed is. In fact, a true homage to the nature of Norway that pebble dash concrete. So woman in character was in fact, a material pioneered by Vic, which he called his natural concrete and features thousands of small stones gathered from the nation's streams and rivers the materials contrast against the sandblasted elements, which would designed to be used as giant campuses for stick works is so beautiful that when Picasso I saw pictures of the proposal he dashed straight out to his Gaden elated to show, his gardener. Just what could be achieved with concrete? It's a building of off at architecture and Vic she even took reference from the storied stave churches of Norway in its design. These timber is managed to be both marvelously on eight and practice. Ical inform and went costs off the architect. How long his building was going to lost? The reply was about one thousand years after all some of these stave timber churches are still standing despite being older than thousand years. But while people like Siri Hume from the society for the preservation of Norwegian, ancient monuments and other local action groups continue to raise awareness for this buildings profound design plans to destroy it Motorola heads that will be at least a considered effort to somehow preserve the giant Picasso mural from the building yet this works. Real value was in bringing both artists an architect together to create something more powerful than both of disciplines could muster individually to simply chop the mural off the building and place it somewhere else as a monument would be a disservice to both because and show today pressure mounts quickly on governments in reaction to terrorism twelve a safe solutions citizens and these decisions not always the best ones for the city. The y block can no longer be seen as a safe building. But the debate surrounding its destruction points to one of the greatest challenges of city. Planets. Those in office need to make us feel safe in all cities, but maintain urban fabrics that give us a sense of place highlight history and promote the civic pride. We all crave. That's this week's episode of the today show was produced by call us Rabelo and was edited by David Stevens and pay you out this episode of the his flatland cavalry with tool city blues. Thank you for listening to love us. The band. Go down to the bar beach, drink too. John. Always in. Down. Explore the original brilliant, hot back volume from the writers and editors behind monocle magazine, the monocle guide to cozy homes is available at a very special price exclusively for listeners to buy the book at half price just twenty pounds plus postage. Visit monocle dot com slash urban this book offer, that's monocle dot com forward slash urban est. Book of monocle keeping an eye and an air on the world.
What is Alternative Risk Premia and Why are Investors Excited About It?
"This is exchange. Goldman Sachs were discussed developments currently shaping markets industries in the global economy, Jake Siewert, global head of corporate communications here at the firm in today's episode were exploring the question, what is alternative risk premia, and why exactly are investors excited about it to answer that, we're joined by Heather, Schimmel, and Tom leak Heather is head of systematic trading strategies distribution in the Americas, and head of this strategic cross asset solutions team Thomas global head of the systematic tweeting strategies sales. Strat team is based in London. Heather in Tom welcome to the program. Thank you. So Heather, let's start by defining, what we mean exactly by alternative risk, premia or AARP. What's the difference between AARP and smart beta, which is the term we you're throwing around a lot. Thanks, jake. It's great to be here. It's a real pleasure to be talking about alternative risk premia. So with regards to the definitions, I think actually. It makes sense to start with smart beta. And in actual fact what I'd say smart beta is the perfect name because simply it's about getting smarter or better exposure to the betas that you want in your portfolio. More specifically smart beta are long only strategies that are designed to outperform traditional beta in your portfolio. So as an example, the S and P five hundred by tilting going, overweight, or underweight that benchmarks constituents so with our S, and P five hundred example, going over or underweight the stocks in the S and P five hundred by some characteristic or factor such as carry value or momentum alternative risk, premia, or AARP, on the other hand are long short strategies that are designed to generate positive returns in exchange for an investor taking. Rhys AARP strategies are steeped in academia, there's an abundance of research on them going back to the nineteen fifties. And so these strategies are seeking to provide persistent exposure to these factors or resp- premia, such as Kerry value or momentum. So we think of an example, in the FX world you could have the carry risk premia simply put your going long. Those currencies with high interest rates and short those currencies with low interest rates. Another example is in the equity market. And there we could look at momentum risk premia, and that simply going long past best, performing stocks and short past worst performing stocks and other words buying the winners, sowing the losers. What's interesting is that AARP can be systematically, harvested across all of the asset. Classes, FX Eck. Equities rates credit and commodities and what's key is that I use the word systematically because alternative risk premia strategies or rules base. There's no active management, Nobels whistles. And in addition to that they're fully transparent. They offer daily liquid and the relatively low cost. So Tom review describe how the industry's evolved, Heather mentioned that has its roots in academia, what's happened since the fifties when this was really an academic field and not really practical, so pretty slowly, it took a long time to move from academic to practitioners cycles. And we really had a lot of basic stuff to understand the first key building block retyping in the sixties was to understand that that was the muck it return what we call beat a and then differences to the market return alpha prior to that we hadn't really separated different sources. Of return, what was coming from the Broad-market move. What was coming from yoga difference in your investment to that, that was done by pipe by shop in the sixties? He won the Nobel prize for following that there was a sequence of other academics, perhaps the most famous being paid by feminine. French who to find value size and a Cup of other factors who worked to define these factors premium they worked to find things that explained the cross section of the things that explain differences in returns between different assets and learned that some of these things had expected positive returns. They seem to do really well over the long run now that took us up to about the late nineteenth, and it wasn't really until then that the hedge fund industry, the first people to connote onto it started to think about it, and started to build failures using this stuff. But it wasn't that many hedge funds. It was quite a small group, and they did very, very well playing this type of thinking now that takes us up to the global financial crisis, and it wasn't until post-financial crisis. That big institutional. Investors started to see how they could apply this thinking to build new broad fighters. The Bank started to get involved in around two thousand twelve when the big institutions asking can you help us move, these bullfighters that's really where we started to get involved in the conflict. Why after such a long period in the academic community, and then in the hedge fund space and active managed space. Why take till two thousand twelve the last six seven years for this to get more practical really as a technology problem, you've got to look at a lot of data for a lot of different assets. Of course, a lot of different asset causes. And then you've got to apply that ten Gina systematic way relatively high frequency. We're not talking intraday. What you've got to be doing stuff periodically daily weakening, and so on, and basically, the infrastructure good enough to allow us to do it. The data became widely available that were databases that you. Could access electrically and the systems to the point where they could start applying this in this way. So it's really part of the tech revolution that we've had in the last twenty is, and it's really one aspect of the tech revolution being applied to finance the technology allowed us to what are the benefits of AARP, particularly for these big institutional investors. What are they looking to get out of this way of investing? There are absolute multitude of benefits for the institutional investor in this space. But I think the number one benefit number one reason for investing in alternative risk. Premia is for portfolio diversification. And specially when you think of the current environment of historically, low interest rates and high equity, valuations investors have started to begin rethinking their asset allocation approach, and looking for better diversification, and other high sources of return that they can achieve if you think about to how. Described alternative risk premia their strategies that are designed to exhibit positive sources of return. But they also exhibit low correlation to traditional assets. So when you add them to your portfolio, not only are you able to achieve lower overall portfolio volatility, but at the same time, you can get higher overall portfolio returns. That's the overriding reason, but there's a whole host of other reasons portfolio. Completion hedge fund replication, a form of liquid alz outperformance tool beta replacement, but one thing that I think is worth mentioning a little bit more detail is that as the AARP market evolves? What we've really seen is that one of the greater benefits is our ability to customize AARP strategies. And it's with that customization that we're able to work with clients and provide solutions. To their problems. So they might have a particular diversification need or some risk target vol, or correlation or draw down, and we're able to design the AARP strategy to absolutely meet their needs. And I think that that's really exciting and a huge benefit for clients you couple that all with the fact that you have the daily liquidity, you have full transparency, you have a relatively low cost, and I'd say, no surprise why so many are looking at AARP. So a lot of times when products were marketed as having low correlation to other asset classes at turned out not to be true, and we learned that in the global financial crisis. So are they really getting the benefits of the low correlation in real diversification? So it's a good question. I guess be easy if I could just answer it as yes, but I think there's two things that you have to think about when it comes to the diversification. The first is that AARP strategies are broadly uncollated to each other over the long term. So that if you add a basket of AARP strategies to your portfolio, you're going to achieve more portfolio diversification than if you just add a few select alternative risk premia strategies, and then the second thing to keep in mind, is that AARP strategies, especially a basket of strategies, actually exhibit low correlation to traditional assets. But I think what you're, maybe you're getting at is two thousand eighteen it was a pretty bad year for premia across the industry, so you can imagine at Goldman Sachs, we did a lot of analysis. And we looked at short term. Correlations over the year as measured by five day returns. And you know what they actually held true to their historical results. And so we looked at longer term correlations as measured by six month returns. And in actual fact, we found that correlations went up. And so that implies that the diversification went down, but I have to tell you Jake that in actual fact, two thousand eighteen was a really bad year for risk premia. So what we saw is a lot more risk premia strategies underperform and a lot fewer outperform over different periods of the year. And over the whole year we had very little diversification benefits, but I think what I'd say is the bad block. Is that if you look at all asset classes, they all performed badly. I mean really virtually except for cash, it was very difficult to find a positive performing asset in two thousand eighteen. So I think what investors need to keep top of mind is that adding a low or Ankor elated AARP to their portfolio provides valuable portfolio diversification. But what they can't lose sight of is that low correlation does not equal negative correlation therefore by definition. There are going to be times when equities go down and sodas rest premia. So Tom, let's talk just a little bit more about what happened in two thousand eighteen Heather mentioned that the industry had a bad year overall. But there was a lot of double digits in this space. What drove that in a lot of people talk about the crowding dynamic explain what that is. And what you found in the research about what happened last year. It's been a big question. And a lot of people have been asking, what was the underlying factor that explained what happened in two thousand eighteen what's the narrative that connects these things before we go into just two quick detour into behavioral finance? We as humans. Have this desperate need stories. We really want to have some story that makes everything come together and make sense. And in fact, we chase that need sometimes even when the statistics don't actually support it. And so we should just sort of give us elves the winning that we're about to construct a story about what happened which will probably make us feel better. But part of it is just us constructing story. It isn't necessarily really statistically rigorous and we need to make sure that we test us stories, typically so saying that the industry love stories, and there were three main stories. Illiquidity crowding risk pricing. So dealing with Meacham come to credit question, specific Jake illiquidity is basically the idea that markets have become less liquid so topa Voda book, depth the amount of liquidity available for people trading exchanges reduced the amount of capital. The broker dealer, providing on mock making gunned down more of the flow is driven by intraday traders and so on. So there's less liquidity, and that's a story that's going to lot of press. And there's actually some reasonable evidence to support that particular on an intraday basis, what we did in premium context, we took a universe of assets that we invest in so one hundred fifty hundred eighty assets we didn't do single. So we did everything else, and we actually looked the size of moves. We had seen over two thousand eighteen versus the size of moves that you see in a normal year, and we were sort of expecting to find that two thousand eighteen had lots of big moves. Because when we lived through the year sent. Felt like a year with a lot of videos and credit events. But actually what the statistics showed is it wasn't that bad? It really wasn't a big move yet. It had more than two thousand seventeen but less than fifteen and sixteen miles less than two thousand eight and that sort of rules out this theory that market's moving a little more than they used to because it's a great story, but the data doesn't really provide onset. What we did notice was headed mentioned with actually, the key thing that was different in two thousand eighteen was the very big shortage of strategies that performed really well. So the number is actually performed really badly was about normal. You didn't have loads doing really badly. But you had very, very few doing really well, and that's an interesting. And it hasn't actually happened so many times in history normally, have it pretty good distribution across different outcomes. And what you saw is the big draw down the happened in Q Foale lead to you being out to examine premier at the end of two thousand eighteen and one of the things we measure is we look at what we call the valuation spreads or the carry spreads. So let's take a carry strategy would just keep the FX example to keep it simple as you can look at how big is the interest rate differential between the things you alone and the things you're short. And this number fluctuates from time to time and what we saw is if we measured that. Our radio strategies across asset classes towards the end of two thousand eighteen both the carry spreads, and the valuation spreads. Go really, really white. So one of the things that teaches us is why strategies performing well is that they were getting cheaper and cheaper, essentially the embedded value in them was getting bigger and bigger. And that sort of suggests that there was this big risk repricing, people demanded a higher return to hold a set of assets and that sort of reasonable as theory, because it also connects traditional asset classes, and it's perhaps notice, a prize that might happen as interest rates stop coming off that floor. So I think the theory that we most like is the risk repricing theory, where people demanded a higher expected return beholding risk that translated into them needing wide a valuation carries breads to buy sets. And that's really what drove the returns crucially, that's the opposite to crowding, if something is crowded. You expect its value and carries Bradsby really pressed right? People buying it. So it's actually squeezing it, and it's a really good counterargument to crowding because it tells you that there isn't a lot of money flowing in the money would flow in with coal is things to converge. And so you'd see these stuff come down. You just don't really see that. And then interestingly in the first quarter of this year, we actually had a nice rebound assets came back, and some of those wide carrying values breads closed. So they moved from like ninety fifth percentile to seventy percent that type of member, so things are still a little bit cheap, but just not quite as cheap as they were at the end of two thousand eighteen. Okay. So Heather, you mentioned institutional vessels. That's very broad category. Who's investing in a are in? Is it a special subset of that investing group originally it actually was a special subset? The first movers were the Nordic pension funds, and the actual fact there's a pretty interesting story, as Tom says we all like stories to why that was true. So if you look back to two thousand eight the Norges Bank was managing the Norwegian government pension funds partly eight hundred billion portfolio. They had a whole slew of external managers and they thought they were pretty diversified. But guess what in the crisis? Everything went down together. So the Norwegian government pension fund commissioned, a study, and they hired three pretty renown professors from Columbia, Yale and the London business school to do a study on the active management portion of their portfolio and the result of that study was that ninety nine percent of the performance could be represented by these risk premia factors that were talking about that have been well written about in academia, so the Nordic pensions read this report, and they turn to the banks, including Goldman Sachs, and they said, hey. Can you replicate these risk premia strategies for us in a systematic liquid low cost and transparent way? And that was literally, the Genesis of the risk premium market. So soon thereafter, the sophisticated large Canadian Ozzy pension funds and sovereign wealth funds began investing in alternative risk premia. And then eventually it spread to the US to Europe to Asia across all the regions and in all of those regions. The first movers were your end investors. The pensions endowments Sovan well success tra-, but one of the things that we've seen here in the US, which is a little bit different is the big growth that we've seen in investors has been from the asset manager community and in actual fact that probably shouldn't be a surprise because so many of the end investors here in the US require reduce Sherry, to do their invest. Writing and the only other thing, I'd say, is that the market really is changing and becoming a lot bigger and a lot more accepted by a lot more type of investors if you go back, just to three years, and I'd be out on a marketing trip and say, we saw ten investors. We'd be lucky if five of them knew what alternative risk. Premia is today. There's hardly a client that doesn't know what alternative risk premia is now. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean they're all investing alternative risk premia. But all types of clients are now, investing not just the pensions asset managers does funded funds. Hedge funds insurance companies. So virtually I'd say all types of investors, and just Saddam. What are you mentioned factors? What are some of the individual factors in peace strategies often, we can make this very Easter Tarik and not specific, but we can make it super specific. And it's very, very simple. So let's do the three. The main ones, so value carry momentum value is basically buying cheap things selling expensive and you expect to make money if prices converge really, that's carry investing is buying high yield sets selling low yield assets, and you tend to do well, when the market is come if the Magas come you'll learn that carry premium and then momentum investing is buying assets at performing well selling us at that it before Ming badly as long as trends continue, you'll do. Well, so value, does, well, turning points, simply put carried as well if things as the same and momentum does, well, if trends continue is there anything really new there or is this just the logical implications of this research that we talked about this going on for decades? So I think the core is very old, not me how you implement and the details of your design choices, really do matter in any one year. The difference between design. Choices can actually make a very big difference to whether you make money or lose money. So I think the concept is to take very simple easy to understand. I did that have been around for a long time and stood the test of time we could say, and then really focus on how to implement them in a clean, low coast efficient way now separate to that. There is always this new search for more factors, and as being a whole world of new papers, trying to find new variations affected and you have to actually be selective, once you get outside the main academic ones about which ones you actually want to include in your pool. So does the core academic once and then there's a whole set of things which exist because a particular supply, demand imbalances in particular markets, and they're actually quite interesting because they can be very diversifying the other factors. They can be a little bit more technical to access, and some people do them, other people choose to, but they can add a lotta value to the poor for those are. I would call more new and less academic when you talk about these factors outperforming, they sound so simple. Why do they perform is the market, basically mis-priced walk us through that? So the families to spend a lotta time on this, because I think it's a money to. Why is that? Let's talk about the best well known premia the equity risk premium. So why does equity markets go up equity mortgage go up because being liquidity provided to companies and those companies generate returns and GDP grows for providing liquidity and funding people receiver return. So there's a cool reason why equity markets generate return, and we would cool that type of reason, a risk based reason people are investing that taking risk and owning a return other premium such as volatility selling the difference between implied and realize what or the premium from selling options again, that's a risk based Premio sending an option and you can earn a return from doing that. So risk-based premium is one of the main buckets of why these things. Exist. The second main reason the economic zone behavioral premiums, which is basically an explanation for why things work because people behave like people rather than behaving like fully rational computers. And some of the academic soggy, for example, momentum comes about because of the speed of diffusion of information in markets and that different humans reacted different speeds. It's a behavioral thing, and then there's an argument the momentum is driven by behavioral biases, and finally, there are structural premium which exists because the market has a structural affect. So one of the examples, for example, the low beat premier way you're invest in low risk assets, and you sell high risk assets that exist because there's leverage aversion, if people have a shortage of cash, then more likely to buy the high-risk, I said, so those things on average risk adjusted should return worse that more flow into them, so you can make a return to take advantage of that structural affect by buying the lowest selling Mahara so risk. Based behavioral structural. You talked about the devil being in the details and design of these portfolios, being very, very important. How's it done? You've called it a solution based approach. Explain what that means. So I think you got to I you have to design your premium. So how'd you actually capture that equity value that rates momentum or someone? And then the second step is how you then apply that to a clients for you. And I think one of the most interesting areas is, how as we understand the premium dynamics better picking up something Heather mentioned the customization way to provide. So it Clinton has a particular investment program, so that focused on my portfolio might do badly in this scenario, or I need something that's going to return. Well, when this happens, and what's nice is you or the new Egion case expi- thought I had diversification turned out. I didn't right? Yeah. And so, by combining the different premium together, you can actually build different types of failures. And as said, if you take a. Ruled pool area. It will have low correlation which doesn't mean negative. But if you pick such in premia, maybe you could build a negative correlation. Or maybe you could take a positive correlation if you want an equity replacement so you select your premium build a failure, and in doing that you try and build a particular investment outcome, which suits what the investor is looking for. So lot of people think we're in the late stages of cycle right now in markets. And there's been a lot of talk about how much longer can last, and we don't know the answers no knows the answers, but how is that shaping how institutional investors think about this particular strategy? So it's one of the big factors driving interest, essentially investors have nowhere to hide equities looking pretty expensive bones looking pretty expensive. There's reasons to believe that the nice diversification effects we've had between critise and bones for the last twenty years might Nope assist. Perhaps they could go down together. And so investors are looking for sources of return, which. Might be diversifying two scenarios now into premed isn't a panacea. It's not gonna solve all the problems, but it's one of the areas you can look to find an asset that will do well in different environments, and perhaps, you can build a pool that will do well, in that type in retirement, and that's one of the reasons investors focused on the space. Okay. So Heather, we talked earlier about the benefits obviously about investing in the space there, obviously, some practical challenges when it comes to actually implementing one of these portfolios. What are the questions that come up with clients? When you're talking to them about this. You now everyone's heard about it, but there's still some doubters you know, it's a really good question. And it's just leads back to the fact that there are so many benefits for investing and the fact that it's steeped in academia, and it's low cost, and it's transparent, so in actual fact, when we talk with clients the investment decision, meaning the decision what premium I going to put into the portfolio, and how am I going to construct that portfolio is actually pretty straight for. Forward where the challenge comes is on the government side. And that's where we get the most questions and we can have a client, who's made the investment decision. And so the types of questions that were being asked are so how does a r p fit within my organization. What is the best way to bench market home? I going to get my internal stakeholders to buy into it. How do I measure good outcomes? How do I measure bad outcomes, or just more? Basically, how do I measure success? None of these are simple questions. None of them are easy to answer what I could say is that for those investors who have successfully got AARP into their portfolio allocations. There's a couple of commonality that we've seen across those investors. The first is that when you're making your initial AARP portfolio try and make it a standalone portfolio. Leo, because then it's easier to measure and it's also easier for internal communication about what you're actually doing. The second thing is to think about the trade off between diversification and complexity the more AARP strategies you put into your portfolio more diversification. You're going to get. But at some point, you just might make it too complex. So you've gotta think about that trade off. And then the third thing is to try and build a governance structure around an investment that can be measured over a reasonable period of time. So one thing that we like to say is that everyone is a long term investor until they actually invest. And Finally, I think it's really important to be focused on post-trade operational processes, just as focused on that as on the investment. So when you pick your counterparts, make sure. Sure that they understand both the pre and the post trade risk controls all those things, I think can make it easier to get a p into the portfolio. So what's next for the industry, we've seen obviously a lot of growth in recent years, Tom, you mentioned that big data's been a big part of this. How will I and some of the emerging trends around machine learning changed these strategies? So it still no clear. I think it's still early days and the industry, still working out exactly how to include these techniques interest, interest premia, clearly, there's a lot of ways of using this techniques in quantum investing in general, and a lot of hedge from spending time trying to apply this type of thinking, but in terms of risk premium which is all about simple. Traditional transparent capture, it's a little bit less clear being a couple of interesting Akkad papers, particularly on the machine learning side, rather than on big data where they've found that you can use some machine learning techniques to combine premia in a more efficient way. Particularly if. Trying to use a multi factor approach, which is when you're building pull failure looking at a number of premia combining that information, and then building one Friday that some evidence that machine learning could be helpful in that setting in terms of data that sort of is a hint that there's other factors out that there are other things that can be explained in data that we haven't seen so far that will allow us again to go back to the original academic process and find new sources of return on new ways of explaining behavior. The challenge we have with, that is we run a couple of interesting projects. It's quite hard to build that with very large capacity. The data tends to be more nuance. Dole detail orientated and it's actually quite difficult to find a capacity big new data source, but I think it's a very early days, and there's lots of interesting what going on. So what do you both most excited about with how air pecan used as a tool kit for investors when I'm most excited about is how we've adapted are AARP platform to be. First and foremost, all about customization. So now, no longer are we going to a client with a set AARP pitchbook saying, this is a r p instead we're having, you know, two way conversations with our clients were figuring out, what are their problems? What are their issues, and then we're tailoring AARP strategies to meet their needs as a sales person. This is absolutely powerful, and it's the best thing for clients, because I just really love looking at this stuff every day. It's the most amazing space. We learn each month each KOTA. We find some new point of detail which will allow us to make the strategy better. And so we get to keep making us tragedies better. Keep refining improving them. And it's a great privilege to get to work in that academic type enterprise within a commotion environment to great environment to how. Get interested in this part of the industry to begin with I started in small Beata before, was premia came thing I was lucky in two thousand and full to work in one of the very first smut Beata startups that was like, three or four really small funds trying to set up different smugly to protect and that to me a lot about the space told me how to think about it didn't actually work out. Then. Banking and the passion for that type of approach, and that type of project and I used sort of risk premia type thinking a few places, and then I was very lucky to be part of a team that was actually contacted by one of those Nordic pension funds in two thousand twelve and that really allow me to take the thinking that I learnt from the days beat a, but also we had a great team put together to solve problems. And it came from that project. How about you? I started here at Goldman, twenty two years ago in the commodity business, and I helped develop and build our commodity investor business. The guy the Goldman Sachs commodity index was what we remarketing now back in ninety seven. When I joined, I don't think there were any clients that actually had a set allocation to commodities, there was no need to have commodities in their portfolio. But the reason we were successful building. The business was because we remarketing portfolio diversification. So now fast forward to about two thousand and fifteen I've been out of the commodity, business, and so nine and I've been in charge of the pension business, and I'm looking around Goldman and seeing what products we can be offering our clients. And I'm looking at this amazing pretty amazing AARP platform that were developing, and we've got really smart straps, working on it, and they're coming out with these really smart innovative products, but there was no marketing or distribution game plan. So what I did is I put a business plan together based on my GMC. I experience and what I found were some remarkable similarities. Well, you know what no one has an asset allocation naturally to alternative risk premia? No one needs to buy it. And the best marketing pitch is actually portfolio diversification. So. I pitched this head Avesta. What exactly? So, you know, I pitched it this head of distribution to senior leaders and here I am. And having, you know what just as much fun marketing AARP as I used to in the Mahdi space. So to finish off the Sepah sewed in one minute or less. Let's answer the central question the episode what is alternative risk, premia, and why are investors excited about it, ultimately the goal of all investors is to generate higher returns over the long run and the key to doing that is portfolio diversification, traditionally? They got portfolio diversification by diversifying their traditional assets today, they have the ability to diversify via risk premia strategies. AARP AARP is steeped in academia, there are more risk factors than there are asset classes. There was a lack of correlation amongst the various alternative risk premia strategies and together, they are powerful. Versa fire. Ask them to your portfolio increase returns lower volatility, awesome, Tom. You wanna take a stab or is that was pretty good? I would say is it's not panacea. It doesn't make money every year. You'll have badges and good Jews. But it's a really powerful took it. What I like to say to investors. No perfect it won't solve all your problems. I'm sorry. It's not that simple. But it's too powerful not to be part of your took it. Okay. Well, Tom and Heather, thank you so much for joining us today learned a lot. Thank you very much. That concludes this episode of exchanges of Goldman Sachs. Thanks for listening, and we hope you join us again next time. Despite cast was recorded on may twenty third two thousand nineteen all price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied distributed published or reproduced, in whole, or in part, the information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener, neither, Goldman Sachs, nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, or completeness of the statements, or any information, contained in this podcast and any liability, therefore, including in respect of direct indirect or consequential loss or damage is expressly disclaimed, the views expressed in this podcast or not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial economic legal accounting or tax advice, or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting, the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity.
Two heads arent better than one: Venezuela
"Hello and welcome to the intelligence on economists radio. I'm your host Jason Vomit. EVERY WEEKDAY EH provide a fresh perspective on the events. Shaping your world this week. As the movie mogul Harvey Weinstein. Esteem headed to court to face charges of sexual assault in New York. More charges were filed in Los Angeles allegations against him sparked the METOO movement. We ask how it's playing out. And there's a conspiracy theory floating around Sudan that the deep state is working to discredit the fragile new democracy clogging the roads with vehicles. Traffic is appallingly bad but the reasons for that are probably simple economics. UH FIRST UP. Though today day Venezuela's National Assembly will meet but after a chaotic weekend. It seems at the country's only democratically elected institution has two leaders and it's not not at all clear which will be in charge one of them. One Bill has been in place per year. He had been widely viewed as the most credible challenger to Nicholas Maduro. Oh the country's de facto dictator. The other Lewis powder appears to have been handpicked by Mr Medeiros regime. Cuando Cuando emerged international prominence in January of two thousand nineteen when he proclaimed himself the acting president of Venezuela. Rooker is our America's editor. The reason that he did that is because the guy with the actual powers of the present of Israel Nicholas Maduro and got himself reelected elected in a rigged election. The previous may more than sixty countries agreed and backed Mr Guido including America. But that has done little to loosen. Mr Medeiros does grip on power. It's been pretty chaotic year. There was a very dramatic episodes in April where why though appeared outside an army base in summoned the armed forces to rebel against the dictatorial government Venezuela and defend the constitution. And that looked for a minute like it was going to be the moment. When the dictatorship was toppled democracy was restored but in fact the armed forces did not come out in support of Guido and current government remains in place and over the weekend it? It seems that government attempted to replace Mr Guido in some unusual proceedings. One by Dole was due to stand for reelection as president of the legislature. It just later now. What happens is that when he tried to get into the legislature? He was barred by government. The National Guard forces couldn't get in nor could a bunch onto other legislators and those legislators inside the building a kind of a rump of the legislature elected somebody else to be head of legislature. That person is Louise's pot who formerly a member of one of the main opposition parties but he was recently suspended by the parties because of allegations of corruption which he denies but quite Oh and his supporters regard that election being illegitimate the proceedings were held under the rules. And in fact what happened happen. Is it a larger group of legislators then convened at a newspaper and reelected Guido as the head of the legislature. I think something like one hundred deputies reelected Guido as the head of the legislature now the legislature has one hundred sixty seven seats. One hundred is a clear majority and you know. In the eyes of the opposition which controls the legislature in Venezuela and in the eyes of most of the international community one Guido remains the head of legislature and therefore remains the interim interim president the acting president of Venezuela. And so. What's your reading of that? What does that change for Mr Guidos political fortunes and that of the opposition while it doesn't change anything very fundamentally the National Assembly was the one democratically elected institution in Venezuela? All the others had been taken over by the regime. Gene and it continues to exist is not allowed to take hold of its premises but it continues to be regarded by much of the international community as the one sort of really legitimate institution in Venezuela. So the fact that quite does been dispossessed of the Chamber of Parliament doesn't mean that he's been dispossessed of the office in legitimacy. That goes with that office well as viewed from where we are I suppose but I mean where where does that leave us in terms of who is actually in charge and who can actually get anything anything done well I mean motto. The president remains in charge. You know last January two thousand nineteen when Guido assumed the interim presidency it looked it does if momentum was building towards Medeiros ouster. I mean Goydos. Assumption of the presidency was then followed by very harsh American sanctions on. Venezuela's is oil sales now Venezuela's economy in deep crisis. The one thing that has the cell to the world is oil. The United States was its main customer for oil. It stopped by buying oil and there was a hope that combination of public anger against the regime and sanctions would win topple the regime and would lead to a restoration Asian of democracy. What's happened in the past years that hopes for that occurring have been diminishing? The government has found ways to get around sanctions to some extent. It's it's also begun to sort of normalize the economy. So you know you're beginning to see Venezuela's a country that had very very high inflation but you're beginning to see the American American dollar replaced the bolivars as the currency The government lifted price controls. So goods are beginning to come back into the shops. So the government is taken up number are of steps to entrench itself and power both by providing a very modest easing of the economic situation at least for people in the capital and Dan evading sanctions and continuing to control all the effective levers of power the armed forces have shown no sign of abandoning the government and Madero remains effectively empower and quite oh remains an impotent. Interim President with the support of a number of important countries. But do you think that this attempts to marginalize him is kind of a symbol of the end of his plausible challenge to Mr Power. Well no I'm I'm not sure. How plausible the challenge ever was but why does remain in the eyes of much of the international community and in the eyes of if not a majority? Then a large plurality rally of Venezuelans the legitimate interim president of the country. His popularity has certainly follow enemy attempts to dislodge the regime of failed and people kind of disappointed disappointed and losing hope in the possibility of change. But he you know. He remains the most popular politician in the country and he will continue to be kind. The focus of the opposition's attempts to unseat the regime more important moment will happen later on this year when the legislative slate of elections are due to be held again. And there's a very good chance. The government will find a way to rig battle action and ensure that the legislatures no longer controlled by the opposition. That will make it more difficult for you to exercise kind of symbolic power. He wields but having having said that you know he does remain the figurehead of the democratic opposition in Venezuela and. I think we'll continue to be that until there's some kind of change of regime or some kind agreement to restore democracy and you say that he has from the start. Got The backing of a large number of largely western countries. What has the international response? Spend this attempt to defenestrate him. Most European countries the United States Have said they continue to recognize. Why does the interim president of Venezuela the so called Lima group which is a group of mainly Latin American countries that have been sort of working to try and restore democracy in Venezuela have issued a statement in support of Guido so the international coalition support of of Guido remains pretty strongly behind him? But you know the big questions whether they can do anything. Really effective to actually support reported cause of restoring democracy. You don't sound very hopeful about that. In the long run in the long run who knows in the short run it does look like the regime is more firmly entrench entrenched than it had been a year ago. And it's you know it's very hard to see where we're changes going to come from There had been a process of dialogue mediated by the Norwegian government. That's dead right now or at least it's in suspension. You know I think one of the reasons the government was ineffective able to take over or at least pretend to take over. Parliament is that some opposition politicians of kind of given up on the hope of a change of regime in Venezuela so things aren't looking good for democracy in Venezuela at the moment Brooke. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you Jason After nearly two years of foot-dragging the criminal trial of Harvey Weinstein and Manhattan has begun more than eighty women. Publicly accused Mr Weinstein of sexual misconduct doc or harassment including celebrities. Gwyneth paltrow and rose McGowan and on the same day that Mr Weinstein appeared in a New York court Los Angeles prosecutors charged him with raping one woman. Then sexually assaulting another woman the next night during Oscars Week in two thousand thirteen the criminal charges against Mr Weinstein eighteen all of which he denies Mark Dramatic turn in the metoo movement which was triggered when the accusations around the media mogul emerged. The economists public policy editor her sophomore novel has been reporting on the New York trial this week. Jury selection starts for the Harvey Weinstein Trial. And if Mr Watson is found guilty of who crimes he could face life in prison is the Weinstein denies all allegations of non consensual sex and has pleaded not guilty. There's been dozens of allegations of course but this trial specifically relates. The two alleged incidents one is related to do an allegation of rape in two thousand thirty. The other is related to another allegation of sexual abuse in two thousand six six added together. They're five criminal charges. That may serious of these charges is predatory sexual suits. He could face between ten years and in life in prison. And why has this taken so long to get to trial will miss. The one seems go through. Quantum number of Roy is to get to this day and all of them have done their very very best to have. These charges thrown out is highly skilled defense attorneys. You found all sorts of loopholes. Initially there could be cases related. The three women won't go along the way it's Pountney been lawyer skill. It's partly been that justice. Just come Sodhi at. How do you think this trial will play out? The leader has been long. I wouldn't be surprised if the trial itself would be quite long as well and that starts with jury selection finding a jury of twelve people who don't have some sort of agenda will be hard. This case is on the one hand narrowly. It's quite a difficult case to prove even though Mr why ceased been accused accused by dozens and dozens of women in the public sphere specifically the criminal cases just related to these two women and the defense attorneys will keep coming back to uh on the prosecution side on the other hand. I think there will be a real effort to try to show. This is part of a pattern and one thing playing in their favor is the fact that the judge has allowed additional witnesses to talk about other so-called bad acts that they are alleging Mr Weinstein did that could would strengthen the case of the prosecution facts in the case of bill cosby the comedian who is now in prison. An initial trial collapsed retrial in which the additional witnesses were committed to sort of show again. The allegations were supported by other women. Who say they going through similar things that seemed to play week he wrote in convincing the jury so we really interesting to see how that plays out in this trial? Certainly Mr Weinstein has become sort of totemic for the beginnings innings of the metoo movement. More broadly how do you think things have progressed. Since then how do you think the movement has fared since these allegations first emerged. That's a question. People are asking being right now and I'm glad you asked it because in a way it's tempting to just look at the Weinstein dry on said. Hey if this succeeds if he ends up behind point bars Success if it fails if he walks freely then it failed and of course. There's a much much water movement that's been happening in what places in college campuses and ultimately also lived in a smaller extent criminal goals the encouraging news. The good news is is that lots of women came forward far more initially than before to report rapes and sexual abuse to go into these stations at central to say. Here's what happened me. Sometimes it's very historic abuse. Bodley's is that the criminal justice system just on the whole hasn't really been able to keep up so most obviously in Brinson inland wells. The year March two thousand eighteen to March three ninety so only one and a half the sense of reported rapes leading to charges. Being filed desert in my opinion will rescue danger that over the medium term term when we think Earth Rago report that can be a very discouraging message in the workplace. I think there's a bit Google careful cools loss of employees are taking this stuff serious now only say they attain this stuff series now at minimum by doing some of the. Let's say easy Z.. Things like reviewing policies etcetera the move forward looking ones that I should say this. Is Daphne minority taking their own culture under the loop and really looking at it. What is it about our culture that may encourage people to sink that sexual harassment or worse is okay and it's not worth reporting the coming back to the criminal justice system which the systemic problem there is? A is a matter of accusers. Being taken seriously being believed or is the burden of proof to high. Why is that number so low pony because it is a very difficult crime to approve a Lotta of rape claims are about consent? So they're not too bad was was a sexual intercourse. They're about was it done with consent. Did both parties woke Mitt. And that just if you think of basic frenzy is much harder to prove the other half of it in my opinion is impact law enforcement and criminal. Desa just haven't put the dedicated dedicated resources to investigate in these fires inhabit necessarily been given the dedicated resources that they need to pursue these crimes. But also this it's just a low history of disbelieving women's allegations of right there's a real perception. That launched percentage of allegations Gatien's of Rape Sexual Abuse of fools. And that just is not correct and this has to do with the idea of right now. The cultural idea of rape is is that it's boy is strange. Who's wearing ski masks? He's got a gun. We now know that the legitimacy of rape is why people who know the victim does it does not involve any weapons and is usually done in the home of the victim or the home of the rapist. So changing the only did of breath looks like in public perceptions of good places and so all told a couple of years after these allegations against Mr Weinstein first emerged. I are things better off. Kind of across the board is the direction of travel in terms of bringing perpetrators to justice and The the the believing of allegations and the pursuing of allegations is is the scene. Just generally better. I think it's to Lisa. Tau I think the symbolism of Harvey Weinstein actually now going into a criminal code. What's is a good thing on the positive side? I would argue that. Almost half police forces in prosecutors are where they're in short comings things and are starting to grapple with how to overcome them. But I'm only half optimistic because most rapes still not report. It and we're living in a moment where where moving anytime before goes in women and boys and men who substance abuse of being courage to come forward with it if they then met met with essentially a closed door as in the criminal justice system. Really help I think that could have very damaging long term consequences. None of that means means that the burden of proof should be lowered or that the presumption of innocence student. Anyway change but it does mean that investigations have to become more Fara Thura move thought more informed more specialized. There's lots that can be done to improve this process. And I think Reagan started Sasha. Thank you very much for joining us. Jason in Sudan life after the revolution has improved all sorts of ways. Last April Omar Al-Bashir Oba sheer was forced from office after thirty years of tyranny. The new power-sharing government is negotiating peace in the war-torn our region has eased. The dress code for women has improved access for UNITARIAN organizations one area of life though has markedly deteriorated traffic. I I spent too many residents of Khartoum the capital traffic miseries. Tom Gardner Economist. Addis Ababa correspondent. One of them was a commuter called so also. Are we who I met at a bus stop in downtown. Khartoum as she and her friend would try to get from college back home. She told me that her journey used to take twenty minutes but these days he could take up to an hour and a half and she said she and her classmates attending up late to lectures every day because of this and it was getting worse and worse by the day. And this this rise in traffic this right and delays has been getting worse and worse since the Revolution yes so clearly traffic not a new phenomenon in cartoon but what everyone I spoke with agreed is that it has. It's got palpably worse. Since the fall of the regime and one thing they pointed to was that public transport has all but disappeared in fact the shortage of buses is so bad that the interim foreign government has decreed that vehicles belonging to the police and army be used to ferry wooden people about town but there were plenty of buses. Where did they go right right? So yes al.. CODA journalist published an explosive investigative report in September which claimed the bus drivers have been paid by members of the ruling party. The National Congress party to shirk work ought to take securities roots in order to clog the system that theories really everywhere and I even heard diplomat suggesting sitting in the idea is that the the deep state is trying to undermine the new government the transitional government by making life difficult for ordinary people so they become disillusioned with the transition and so that's the sort of dominant theory for what what's gone wrong at least with the public transport into thinks. Yes that's the dominant theories another. Is that a group of saboteurs are abandoning ending vehicles in the roadways to to cause congestion and some saying that you know that former members of the the NCP because the party oh nearly forty thousand vehicles vehicles. They could in theory caused chaos on the road if they wanted to like this. And so what do you make of these theories. Is there a coup conspiracy by congestion going on here. Look I I think ideas and stories like these are interesting because of what they reveal about the popular mindset in a society during a fragile democratic transition and. I do think it's true that the old guard still everywhere in India institutions and they can make life difficult the new government. The Khartoum State Transportation Company is one such institution which is still stuff for the former loyalists. But I do think it's probably best not to chase after the conspiracy for a full explanation. I think at route. It's it's more mundane economics. For instance state regulated fares too low to pay for maintenance of buses which run on shoddy poorly maintained roads. One bus driver said to me that a year or so ago there were one hundred thirty minibuses. The best is working his route now. They're only seven and he said he's he's owned busted been sitting outside his house for nearly a year. For this reason I think equally important if not more more is simply the legacy of corruption mismanagement in state institutions. There's been very little investment in public infrastructure over the years and there are several big projects such just an intercity train and a bridge across the Nile. which have been delayed for years and actually when I was in Khartoum in the new government launched this is trained which basically been sitting there idle for a year even though he was more or less ready to go so that's one thing the government has done to expedited solution and other is to extend roads and import many more new buses? So so this problem will be fixed. Reckon well it's GonNa take time and money and I think this is an it's an object lesson in the challenges facing Sudan's new leaders in dealing with the legacy of corruption and mismanagement bequeath by by Bashir in a context in which people are impatient to see. Real change will change in their lives and a suspicious that You Know No Defense Forces out there working against the revolution so it's really difficult context of reform the country. It will be tough but I think that should come as any surprise they will. If when next we speak you a little late all know why Tom Thank you very much free time. Thank you Jason That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. If you like us give a rating on apple podcasts. And you can subscribe to the economist at economist Dot com slash radio offer twelve issues for twelve dollars per twelve pounds back tomorrow.
Life in the fastest warming place on earth
"Today were in the sec west things changing fast and gary young why ivanka trump pad at the g twenty john since they were in they are six words slava so but it's a cluster of norwegian islands in the arctic circle and it's home to the most notably town on a warning so it is a landscape like non i had ever george rangers like a child donors in what is the global environment at the guardian and recently we traveled up together the cd island because it's all about is experiencing profound changes you're about to spend some time with us on are jenny meeting the people on the front line of this change in number well that very few people have witnessed this morning rate in having said he moved past fifty four years ago like the majority of the people in scope out she lives in the main settlement lumbia being when she may have had with a young family this place with a thriving in coal mining town the first year we came here it's very cold she described how the island east bay come of it now a ton defy fifty degrees mimes go edge change laws especially i send us your latest fee by the state has otit dramatically and she writes it before when the lights came back in in january or february then then you look down undersea as ice every other and see the slaying of these black spots everywhere so out one day we have been able to see latency yeah the now it's not going on in lockdown now an amtrak temperatures around the world have risen on average by about one degree celsius since the of industrial era indie optic the change is happening at twice the speed and with india take their hot spots this place is a canary in the mine when it comes to the climate connections they hope this of the hot spots is this snowy paradise where in it is warming five times faster than the label ethics from the guardian i'm index and today in fake ass what is lifelike insult but the foster heating place annette so living underneath this mountain you're darned to kind of check the temperature and see what kind of what's coming and the temperature of the data snowfall so if we have hot very cold period and you know there is a layer of ice on top of the snow and then you get like fifteen centimeters of new snow you know you'll have to pike you're back because it might be safe lena is a hotel receptionist on the island she's been had owned and offer nothing yes she loved that hopefully i don't have to move again i really liked this place but in the past yeah she's had to leave her home four times because of the new growing threat of launches in twenty fifteen the town so the most devastating of these avalanches well it was late so people were sleeping and a yeah it moved to houses quite quite far distance actually in and a lot of snow even came through the house is you have people who lost their life and everybody was taking in trying to get the people out and and this is only the beginning it was glad that this is becoming more frequent the local government had the act and built defenses up the mountain the many houses just couldn't be protected instead they had to be evacuated and soon they will be torn down so now it's a close tough for humans before she lost moved she left at number two twenty two weather have not been avalon says it'll sell landslides lena takes us briefly inside every what was once home to thousands of people has been completely attendant yes they made their mark of two they checked the house that it's m t is a big black x on the front of the door yeah i had my and my coffee and it's weird being by actually kind of gives me the chills if you stand in his own living room you could see evidence of this problem right across the valley on the other side you could see the white crosses at the cemetery which now needs to be amazed because of landslides and the kindergarten which is already closed because of the danger as things start to change the norwegian government needed to understand the scale of what they would now dealing with so they commissioned twelve scientific institutions look at the changes and the impact they would have the details it came back in february this year with deeply alarming first saw but hit me when that report plus percent it was a while this is something we can't handle a second thought this okay that this is the heart and brutal the truth we have to deal with it morton wet again if the head of the environment protection department in the governor's office he was in the rain when the report called the sold out two thousand one hundred reports the fest presented very quiet room when the when the graphs representative when you saw how it has been because it's a farmer change that's not only going to happen it has already happened and we're living in the middle of it the findings saturday island had already warmed by four degrees could justin at businesses usual scenario reached ten degrees in the next eighty heading we are i think moten texas up a hill to have a look at the time i came in january nineteen ninety six for the cooks i'm twenty years old and it's pitch dark and i had no idea what it's a very different kind of living kind of like and some people are not cut out for this contrasted wild barren landscape and heavy industry equal time to spoil the view but again it's important to remember where we are in the arctic we need we need energy supply not about having to adopt into the full last the climate crisis it also has to find a way of becoming sustainable itself because the town here is currently run on coal on diesel say that she had that problem kind of daylight tony yes you could hear the power plant and you can also hear the noise from the harbor as well but back in the old days that shift couldn't be here because of the ice we are now looking out the fjord filled with water on the surface there's no ice on the field that was on thinkable twenty years ago this time of year it will usually covered with ice this is the new normal what is it mean team having now i well for one thing for the for the community means that you can actually have boats coming in here for the whole year some from my point of view it's a good thing but for the wildlife so the seal stouffer supposed to breed on this ice for the polar bears who were supposed to hunt for these seals and living on this ice it's a disaster and the changes you mentioned that now the top official getting in the field a and around these waters is also changing what we have seen specious like called atlantic called a macro but just met more southern specious and then well sudden in wheaton trump's anyway which is good fish food were still regional fish used a dominant tell us what we call day they arctic called so the ecosystem is changing in in the in the in marine environment the changes the people witness they just me more logistical problems it's very classroom speaking to people that they have a deep psychological impact hey this is such a change of some such a huge scale that you sometimes i'm feel well how how can i handled this hocken i deal with this what can i do little me in this big picture that that and realize that well i contact say that's what whether it feels like an overwhelming challenge hundreds of scientists what on the island assessing the changes because despite sometimes looking like a parent wilderness foldout isn't island teaming with wildlife and not just the whales sales forces says impulse buys it is so famous for being a different small boats way with the clouds and vanessa ptc scientific method of by taking tourist a cd islands lacey is is looking at something much smaller but justice ignificant so my research and see ice ecology yeah look at the animals so the inside of us vanessa he's wearing the white picnic jumped that that seems to be will make the uniform around is passionate about and and the tiny subject says how mainly talking about the marine worms crustaceans copious notes i guess the cook report this a you could think of it like in oval that is filled with facts and one thing that's the easiest description marine sausage sausage food but i always think of it as the fast food of the arctic it's like it's a whale law bird dogfish wants to go to mcdonalds it's a cool people pretty important very important just in a way if the top changes so like if we see changes in the polar bear or other marine mammals it is most likely occur in because something is changing on the bottom sea ice across the whole optic is melting as a race has ten thousand tonnes the second as he ice melts and the closest all these people these marine sausages are in increasing danger but it's not just see atmospheric heats the quote in the decline at this habitat the natural cooling system of atlantic currents is changing as he ought to asian wombs we have some atlantic water flowing past the west coast and this is making wife as a woman current some of the gulf of mexico okay and i mean this water is relatively speaking it's warm free to forty degrees but that's already warming us even when it's mixing with arctic water to stumps he has some forming kind of like assembly just stan this morning like it's being woman from a tough on the bus in yes exactly but i think in a way be weird if the ice over the arctic ocean just melted trying to comprehend that this is a difficult it's not just the sea ice disappearing the laziest the cleverest sixty percent sold out of retreating everybody because i know mary so let's fill their hand like oh my god this place right hang on up to the tone that wow that is simply piece by cabin out not a jury yeah it's gone down a lot just tell me tell me what we're looking okay so this is my friend smart glacier depending on the amount of lights or the clouds in the sky the color kind of changes which is that special so this one goes back about fifteen kilometers in the front wall is about fifty sixty meters high as i stepped onto the deck i had you telling everybody that this is drinking yeah so out of all of the glaciers on fall guard a big percentage of them at least half are decreasing inside so i know the summer's has been getting a bit warmer each time the amazing a wall of ice ix something out game of thrones or nonni arrow credible side i know so kind of sobering think it was actually if several hundred pages further out just say not that long ago that he could see how many powerful impact on people yeah i suppose we just don't get to see ice as such a dominant president's if feels like it's another planet but actually it's it's just it's just part of our home does it does a really important job so the rest of the planet in front of regulating the volume in the ice up hey affects the sun at actively keeps a wealth cool it's impressive and peaceful but the more time you spend the more it feels like every inch is slipping away one of our final stocks is on board a different tourist attraction husks led by out insulting sofa tool bedded norwegian he's just had a baby cold so he's a trained up pick guide and runs the husky on the vapor hundred dokes much of that livelihood depends on the snow in this false changing and french outlined he takes dornan backed up to a rifle beating out about it just losing this would be i i'm not sure how it's gonna be but if fee but it's it's gonna break my heart says don't go out like this with the dog snow in the summer we have wheels carton swith we'll go don't want you to know it's fun but it's not the same guy amir changing to win now i will say that the snow comes later in the year and then goes earlier in the year as the temperature rises quickly now tech many see opportunities the money in the changing landscape lessee ice opens up shipping channels and opens the way for oil exploration and harris hobart more visitors can come thousands a day sometimes arrive on cruise ships good to the tourism industry that muskie fifty island itself is is very very vulnerable up here so in the summer for example if you if you walk in a marsh and you put down your foot a you you're ruining ecosystem that has spent decades case of just growing and its route go slower things need more time to recover from from the impact that we do i know most people in the city here are concerned about the changes were losing are way of living it's clear that long you'll be in his hot to adopt fast but ever since the sold out two thousand one hundred report landed it's been a new urgency to discussions of what needs to be done and did it could be done quick enough walking up through the town when i lost my info about the feature at this pace bailey was old but we could think about what kobe very annoying everytime i ask you this class give it so many times is enough gonna be done enough for showboat enough for the planet enough uhhuh anything something something in there won't be enough to stop climate change in climate disruption it's already stopped but every little thing that is done slows the process which is a community that we had ten years ago was almost in denial about climate change because the focus back then laws can reopen more coal mines and now it's a community where people talk about climate change over time and so i think that sense of issue forcing itself into people's minds because it becomes impossible to ignore is something that will happen to other places more and more the sooner that happens elsewhere the better jonathan what has written a lot about this whole about an even more about what's happening and they all take you could follow all of his wet at the guardian dot com where you could say see pictures of amazing coming up why has that been so much division if trump the president's at the g twenty now on the weekend video was released least by the french government as a group of world leaders deep in conversation at the g twenty and only adds to the circle donald trump's daughter ivanka is attempting to join it that's been an outpouring of criticism over her presence at the summit but what i see the problem with having that is the audience editor at large area so there's video which shows ivanka trump donald trump's due to trying to kind of become involved in the conversation with emmanuel mac home christina madonna theresa may and they a shit chesting i mean if somebody somebody could come in with some fear russia is that tennessee is a diplomatic event and release the center of this is that if trump is trying to to insert himself into this conversation and failing miserably the videos taken by see at least say machine the friends presidential machine which makes one thing but it's quite aggressive traveling by from all of america because it shows had a light that makes it look like she doesn't know anything in the she's kind of del no one's really listening to and she is not mix the metro timeouts but she's a fish out of water and a half at that said the response to the video has largely been mocking making the point that i fully understand she's you know she shouldn't be there that she is that i didn't being the president's daughter that doesn't qualify to be in a room with other worldly i understand all of those comments i'm kind of fierce fierce critic of donald trump i think you're supporting the way he has appointed his children and they're powerless to positions of authority who see serious questions about democracy what is this woman doing that those role very very legitimate concerns but i would say that to suggested that room at some hallowed diplomatic room wait great things are being discussed we have to just take a minute theresa may's in that room she's not that great we know that she says that she was elected she has some kind of democratic mandate in a way that bank doesn't know that's true that matches but one would argue i would argue christine without there's not many democrats demanding she massive amount of paradise lost under the country but nobody likes he's had to that position not roommates full of people who've been guilty of cows the most terrible crimes and mad is into said the notion that she somehow policing the room i kind of find a bit laughable not broom already had a lot of people he's done a lot of bad things in it before she came into that i'm frankly not allowed in the sharpest knife in the drawer and so there is an offer of haughty ness around around the notion that ivanka trump walks in the room and suddenly this room that was full of democratic mandates and decent people in small people eisenhart liberal conversations if suddenly rejects the british people have to take a minute before you start talking about kind of the president's daughter more qualifies had to do that we have a queen as the head of ass days the queen so that's a very big glass house which to throw stones americans wanna talk about these diminishing of america's kind of diplomatic reputation of as they iraq war days is well there's a range of things that america has supported before for trump that would suggest that there wasn't a huge amount of diplomatic cachet coming out of america to stop wave none of that shit detract from the fact that she shouldn't have been in the room but then what do we make of that room and what do we make remedy but she should require that's all for today my thanks the gary and jonathan watts an older people we met one small but today's episode it's produced by me i'm biased and week out by the sound design with by ellery stevens an executive producers are nicole jackson until may not will be back tomorrow