35 Burst results for "Norman Swan"
What if we vaccinated everyone in poorer countries first?
"Hello this is corona cost a daily podcast all about the coronavirus. I'm health reported teigen. Thailand and opposition journalist alter norman swan is tuesday the ninth of march two thousand and twenty one. So let's talk today about who gets vaccines when and let's talk about it from a global perspective because we've been talking a lot in australia about phase one a phase one b and all that sort of thing but really we have virtually no virus. It'll in australia. And it's running rampant around the globe and as we were saying yesterday when the virus running rampant in poorer countries. there's a high likelihood of variants popping up. That could cause problems with vaccines that we've got so ruth is ask us. Would it be betta for australia to vaccinate ourselves first and then turn our attentions to helping. Poor countries get vaccinated all to prioritize vaccinating people in poor countries first and then vaccinating australians. Second well there is a way through this but it's politically fraught one is that you could really go and make sure that all workers. That's everybody airport. Workers airport catering workers airline crews etc and their families and households are all unionized and preferably with the pfizer. Vaccines works quickly and his high performance. Hopefully against the variance and higher performance than astra. Also if you were to immunize. Australians before they come back home harder much harder to do then serious pretty well protected with our contact tracing and so on. And we've got time and therefore you could in theory divert two countries around us at an earlier. Stage the problem there is we would have to actually go into those countries and help them implement. It's not enough just to jump. Fis are at their door and hope that it actually gets there. We would have to devote resources to helping like we did with hiv by the way to helping. Those countries implement prevention and implement immunization campaigns. Many of them are pretty good at it but the probably need help to do that. So it's not just. The vaccine is the services in order to do it and the cold chain which is quite considerable so the issue could and it makes public health sense internationally if you could suppress this in countries where it's running rampant and have fewer variants being thrown off. Then you would actually make a big difference. But if you think of indonesia it's a huge country with a vast population and it would require concerted international effort to make sure indonesia it's enough doses and implements them and then you've got the pacific islands some of which are very competent. Doing this sort of thing and some of which might have problems. It's not straightforward australia's a rich country. But it's not particularly be country on the global scale would estimating vaccines really make that much of a difference. Mchugh difference to the pacific islands where the populations are small and we could certainly deliver enough vaccine to really get great coverage and places like fiji to value solomon islands and so on because the small populations and we can certainly devote enough vaccine there to get really great coverage the issues indonesia which is going too fast population as i said and chaotic health system in some parts and some of the islands massive cappella ago. So the question is what do you do. But indonesia howdy helping to nesia the sort of those. We could give would be a little bit of a drop in the ocean which require other nations to help out am and other suppliers to help heart.
What makes a variant a variant of concern?
"Hello this is corona cost a daily podcast all about the coronavirus. I'm health reported teigen tyler. An opposition and journalists culture. Norman swan friday the fifth of march and give it into the second year of corona caster. But it gives you the year it's two thousand and twenty one. It still hasn't anyone even though time is both flying and travelling at a snail's pace but normally one of the things that we keep hearing about over the past few weeks and months is variant. So we we were all very critical of donald trump when he was talking about the china virus and the wuhan virus. But then since then we've been talking about the uk strain in the south african strain. And then yesterday all this week we've been hearing about a russian variant. That's popped up in queensland. So firstly what does it even mean and secondly doing it a better way of naming these virus variance where we're gonna way of naming them. It's just pretty obscure so. The russian variance so called is has the numbers three one seven at the end of it and it is a bit unfair naming them according to where they were i noticed or discovered so britain said africa brazil. New york california russia. It's not very helpful at all because it just sparks. Fear yet. A new variant. What does it actually mean. There's lots and lots of variance. And if i can take us back. Just a little less than a year is that even then there were variants developing and people panicking about them at that point and the bedford lab. Which was really one of the first labs to get into sequencing the variance in tracking them. Globally they found that in fact there was very little change in behavior between the variants. It was more. The people change their behavior but not the virus and that's only recently changed and it's only changed with two or three variants so it's changed with the south african variants. It seems to probably be more Contagious and certainly more vaccine resistant. The brazilian variant. We still don't know enough about that but that looks as if it's more contagious. And certainly also look. Civic could be vaccine partly packed vaccine resistant. The uk one. It's more about contagious. Nece and the american ones so far just not sure what their behavioral changes so more and more. We're seeing various but for every one of these variants you're seeing that are lots and lots of other ones which simply track the evolution of the virus and don't really mean anything and reportedly this variant which is three one seven being called the russian variant. Just seems to be one of these variants which has been thrown off by the virus through replication. And probably doesn't mean very much at all so one of the other pieces of lingo that we've been hearing this idea variant of concern and some of the naming conventions have the are see in them as well as like there's the be one one seven top naming convention and then this other naming conventions which just makes it even more confusing. What makes a variant of very of concern versus just add variant of not concerned. Just curiosity is. I'm sure that that is actually standardized internationally but it would just mean that. There is evidence that it's transmitting more than other viruses muscling other viruses out the ways so for example. The uk barely has muscled other variance out of the way. It's presumed to be more contagious. But probably less contagious than we originally thought the brazilian very. We've talked about it on a corona cast. It seems to be infecting people who were previously infected with the let's call it the wuhan variant which is really the regional virus to come out of china and the south african variants is also almost certainly able to reinfect from the previous one which also and there is evidence of reduced vaccine. Efficacy is gets this concern label when there's evidence that it is behaving differently and potentially dangerously
Are we going to meet our vaccination target or what?
"Hello this is karina. Cost a daily podcast. All about the coronavirus. I'm health reported teigen thailand physician and journalists dr norman swan. It's wednesday the third of march and norman. We're already more than a week into our vaccine. Roll out here in australia. Which makes us old hands at it now but there were reports over the past few days. That strategy hasn't quite met the targets that i was expecting to in terms of numbers. Vaccinations delivered in this first week. And we've got a pretty big target for october as being sort of the end of the roll out the end of the first big sizes of the rollout. What are some of the issues that have cropped up. I mean it's such early days. It feels a little unfair to stop critiquing the performance when we're on the awakened but what are some of the issues that have been identified as maybe slowing us down a bit. So far rove is clearly been a major cities of hiccups with the commonwealth rollout in aged care. As we've been saying in current cast in fact the main game is boorda. Workers airport workers flight crew and hotel quarantine workers and what we should be doing but we're not as their families in households. So that's the main game securing our borders. And doing that hyper quickly. And you've really got to do that with the vaccine because it's going to take you twelve weeks to complete it with the astra and it's not going to be as good coverage with the with the new variant possibility so there's been a cold up in aged care because the commonwealth doesn't run anything have his own services therefore they've got a contract they probably should have contracted it to the states. But they've going into private providers and been cups which have been well publicized so it's to take the commonwealth a bit of time to get their act together and also some of the states have been a little bit slow so this combination of supply of scene. But also as marion kane or imply. Just today the bookings haven't gone quite as quickly as they imagined. And they could cope with more bookings. And i think there's been a hint of that in some other jurisdictions so people have got to come forward when they're booked and have that but around the world there has been a problem with people. Not turning up for bookings people don't turn up for their appointments and that means that you have a system in place where you've got people on standby people that you can take a. We've got jobs over. can you. At five o'clock in unexpectedly get your vaccine. So we saw we had the new south wales primary gladys and yesterday criticizing the maybe lack of communication between the states and federal government. Is there improvements. That could be made there. Probably and the minister of sought yesterday to have a press conference which is probably in part induced. By the new south wales premier having criticized the federal government for not being clear with the doses. And how they're going to arrive. I mean i think some of the surprise here is that if i had a long time to develop this. And it's still not clear how the next phases are going to be rolled out how people are going to be told what booking system is going to be like. Gp is still not clear how they're going to work into it. They've had their letter saying they've been accepted as a as a center for you know the practice to deliver vaccines but even then the ph primary health. Networks are often not clear whether or not the four thousand six hundred practices are indeed the ones that will end up doing it. So there's a fair bit of uncertainty another area of uncertainties that third pretty good administration stopping doctors commenting on the relative efficacy of vaccines. Because they're calling it. Advertising saying the vaccine come to my practice sits behind that there's a lot influx. We'll get our act together. We're good immunizing country. People will come. Forward is just that. We don't want to lose momentum.
On the front lines of Victoria's vaccine rollout
"I'm health reported teigen tayla opposition and journalists ultra. Norman swan is tuesday. The second of march and of course we know the vaccine rolette is happening all across australia and to give us a bit of an insight of how it's going in melbourne. We have a special guest today. Welcoming back professor marian kinda who's head of infectious diseases at western health. Thanks for making time. For us marian. Good morning so marian. Just give us a sense of what you've had to do and what you're covering and and the challenge at western health. We are responsible for the tolerant. Airports border on staff including flight crew as well as the hospitals in our catchment area. So that is. The pack will campus as well as western health and some other hospitals as well. You talk them at the time. Precious that have been anew with just mobilizing for these vaccine. Rollout lots of people in our organization have described as doing six months of work in three weeks. A lot of people put in a lot of effort to get this up and running. And i'm just so proud of what we have been able to achieve. Now we've heard a lot about training. How different is dealing with this pfizer. Vaccine from pooping call for measles australia. One of the major things which is different is one. This is an ultra. Low temperature require the cold chain requirements at different and in addition we have to use multi. Does files and in australia. Multi smiles have not been used much at all and this is a very very precious product and so we want to make sure that we maximise the number of doses that we can get out of a multi file so for the fis vaccine. That is that we aim to take out six doses out of fat multi file which is a challenge because we constantly do not have what a cold low dead space needles overloaded space syringes. That are family style absolutely great and they are able to reliably get sixty six out of multidex files. Solo did space. Needle is nato where. There's not a bit of a minimum amount of vaccine. That's left in it after it's been completely delib is correct correct and so we want to make sure with. Everybody gets exactly the dose that they need. And if you don't have a low dead space being you have vaccine that is lifting the end. The person does not get the full amount or you cannot get the full dose of the vaccine pulled out of the multi vile and you've got to go to w. correct so. This is a complex process. So i'll pharmacy staff. They spent one week specifically training for this to make sure that they abide by be cold chain requirements which has significant in addition to make sure that they use the proper aseptic technique. So that they don't have any contamination of vile that occurs and then they practiced and practiced and practiced to make sure with dummy vials to make sure that they could get the appropriate number of doses. Out of that multi vile.
Will vaccines make a difference responding to the next outbreak?
"I'm health reported teigen tyler and physician in journalists alter norman swan. It's the last corona cast of summer fridays. twenty-six yes. We are on the last current cost of summer. And i feel like i am. Maybe potentially jinxing us by talking about an outbreak. But let's talk about the scenario norman. Where if there was another outbreak in australia. Now that we've got vaccine in the country vaccine which we know is quite effective at preventing disease and infection. Would that change the way. We've been responding to outbreaks in the past year. Yes would and in fact. I think we were probably the first out. Let's talk about. It was called ring vaccination. And it's now part as far as i understand it over the national immunization or vaccinations strategy. So what you do is as you do your contact tracing you would ring-fence vaccination around the person who's got the disease and the people that have come in contact with and maybe even the people that they've come in contact with so primary contacts and secondary contacts and you would do that with the pfizer vaccine because you've got a strong response early and is only three weeks between doses so within three weeks you're fully immunized rather than the astro which might take twelve weeks to get up to that sort of level of antibody response and so a and it's a race against time so that you because the incubation periods five to eight days but what some of the research is showing is that you get an early response to particularly the pfizer vaccine. Maybe even the astro too so you get a pretty good resistance there early on so that would be a good way to respond to outbreaks prior to very large percentage of the population being covered. So when you vaccinate sometimes depending on the disease some vaccines take a couple of weeks before you get an immune response. But then there's other vaccines like rabies. Where if you get bitten and you think that there's a chance got exposed to rabies. They give you a vaccine then. Do we know what the fires a shot does. Whether it's the sort of vaccine that you can give after exposure and give you some protection while it is all about the maths which is the incubation period versus the time for the vaccine to work so smallpox that's how they controlled. Smallpox control smallpox by massimo. Certainly helped but in places such as africa they controlled it by ringfencing and controlling the spread from that and so they find they find a case a main they ring vaccinated around the person with smallpox. So that in for anybody who might have contact come in contact with that person was protected and in that case the vaccine for for the smallpox vaccine worked faster than the incubation period of smallpox. In this case it's lying ball but it's worth doing because it's likely that you would get a responsibility and you're doing two things by this ring. Fencing are ring vaccination. I should call it. You are protecting somebody against severe covid. Nineteen disease the second thing you'd be doing is trying to prevent transmission and you'd hope those two things go hand in hand is a bit of evidence from israel that they do but it's not strong
When will I know when I can go and get a vaccine?
"Hello this is corona cast a daily podcast all about the coronavirus. I'm health reported teigen tyler physician and journalists culture. Norman swan choosy the twenty third of february the second day of national immunization. That's right and we've had saw so many questions from audience about how the vaccine role it's gonna work how you're gonna know when it's your turn in the queue and rather than us answering those questions we thought we'd bring in loren roberts who's a health report at one of our colleagues in the abc science unit because lauren's been looking into the vaccine rolette and how it's gonna work and she's here to answer your questions. Welcome lauren thank you good morning. Carl orange relief is test. Somebody on carcass cass. She knows what they're talking about talking about. I'm talking about the okay. Whatever lauren. let's get straight into it. We've got dolores asking. She's just by heggie practice and they have no idea how the vaccine is going to be rolled out. They waited eight weeks for their flu vaccine last year. What are the logistics. That are involved in the vaccine. Rollout will because there's lots of different phases when not certain about how people are going to be notified through the light rollout. So we're talking about rollouts gonna happen in the latter half of this year. We do know that people that are included in the phase. One eight of the vaccine rollout. So that's i care. Workers people that are currently living in h care. Quarantine workers a lot of these people. They're going to be told by the employer and have the coronavirus vaccine lined up by their employer and then probably get the vaccine at work so people that can h care for example. They'll probably get their vaccine de but it's the latest stages that we're not too sure about. We know that there's a good chance that will eventually be up to register online to get the coronavirus vaccine. I'm but at this stage there is to register. It's a little bit of a white and say so just to be clear. Lauren and give us a flavor as well. In israel people were contacted because they had the electronic health records in the insurance public insurance companies. You're saying is that this whole strategy is going to rely on us registering and then seeing how we qualify at. What stage of the priority list. But it's important thing now to just make sure your medicare details up tonight And if you can have it linked to you my gov and then we know that the federal government has spent about thirty one million dollars in a public information campaign and a lot of the details about the light of rollout which moisture israeliens going to be included in is going to be coming out there so it'll be posted. tv campaigns. That'll be a lot of information on the website but right now it's just that fight that we really nari. They are going to be getting their vaccine soon. We know that they can probably be finding out through their employer but everyone else. We're kind of just going to have to wait and say
When might we see more cases in WA's outbreak?
"Hello welcome to khurana. Cost a daily podcast. All about the coronavirus. I'm health reported taken tyler physician and journalist alter norman swan. It's tuesday the second february. That's right and the second day of perth and surrounds his five die lockdown which they've gone into because arto quarantine worker has tested positive for. What's now being confirmed to be the strain of coronavirus. That's being called the uk strain and so norman. Seeing a five looked down. We know that it takes longer than five days for the virus to incubate in. Someone's body so i can. We talk about what you do when you're trying to control of virus in its very early stages where you'd have to say first of all five days. He's actually at the lower end of the of the incubation period. So it's almost one incubation period. Not quite so. The there are key elements of control. I is social. Distancing and lockdown is an extreme form of social distancing where you don't know where the viruses remember. This farce is not spread evenly. Eighty percent of people don't spread the virus twenty percent do and they do through clusters so this man has been all over paris. he's been may lands. Which is where he lives. He's been joondalup far north. He's been in the city and so at any one of the so he might not be a superspreader himself but he might have spread to other people who then pass it on a super spreading environment like we saw in sydney. So that's that's the problem is that you get these clusters. And the classics stay underground for a while before they burst out and reveal themselves. And that's the prospect so what they're doing here is the right thing is that they're clamping down on social distancing so the virus cannot spread any further than it already has or you minimize that so. That's one element. The second element is testing and testing has got to be in really large numbers of west australian tens of thousands. So that just in case you there's a case out there that you're not finding you just want to be sure that you're really massively testing in chance that something is out there in a random way and people have caught it where we're at surprise not just in the contact areas where you might have been in coz in mayland or or wherever so. He's talking about testing nine omen but we have seen a lot of testing and they haven't been any more cases least as of yesterday. And i think that this man might have been infected around the twenty-fifth so we're may be getting into a timeframe where we could be saying positives. Yes but the testing rates are just gathering in numbers so the weren't that many tests yesterday for a city of six million people so it got really multiply to maybe ten times that number of tests. I think there were three thousand or tests reported overnight. So that's that was only in half a day so the numbers of just got to ramp up. Then the next thing is that which is about contact tracing so the already got onto the contact tracing identified sixty or seventy people so far context. Those people have got to be quarantined regardless of their status. Because they're the most likely people who are going to become positive and in the northern beaches of sydney a very significant. I can't coach the numbers. But a very significant percentage of people who became positive in that in the clusters that remarriage from the northern beaches positive in quarantine. They were already isolated for fourteen days. So you don't want people becoming positive and about you wanted to become positive when they're home in quarantine or hotel quarantine so those are the elements of control and if it goes size the strategy or queensland then there won't be any more cases they'll have identified them under control and it may not be necessary to go the full five days but it just allows you to get things under control contact tracers to get on top of it and five days is much better than a grumbling. Thing which you really paralyzes the city for for days and days and days if not weeks which is what happened in was the under control done a great job but it lasted a long time and right through christmas so it is looked down. When are we gonna have good indication of whether we're good or whether it's more of an outbreak large testing numbers. Not finding anybody. So let's take some questions from our audience This person saying they've heard that a vaccinated senator in the us has been infected with covid after getting shot. And we know that there's a proportion of people who become infected that have ongoing health issues. Do we know whether someone who's had the coronavirus vaccine is more or less or the same amount likely to get long term health problems from covid. We don't know that yet. there is an right. There is a relationship between severity infection in vancouver but people who get mild infection do get it as well so we don't know the answer to that question. We'll only know as the months go by often when people get infected is after the first does the second does. And that's been the situation in israel as well so you do get partial protection but not for protection so that we don't we just don't know the answer to that question
Is WA overreacting by locking down so much?
"Hello this is. Corona cast a daily podcast. All about the coronavirus. I'm health reported teigen. Tulloch position journalist alter norman swan. It's monday the first of february. That's right and yesterday. We were mocking the longest stretch. Nationwide without any luck transmission since february last year was fourteen consecutive days. But we've seen that stretch broken With a case announced in western australia yesterday norman male cortel quarantine security guard in his twenties. Who was working at the sheraton four points quarantine hotel and w i has not surprisingly jumped really hot on the web announced a really tough five lockdown basically. No one's going anywhere for five days until they figure out what's going on so one case and a really tough five day lockdown. Is this an overreaction. Or is this the right level of reaction. No i think it's the right level of reaction and the mandatory masks as well and they've just done everything to get this under control. It's one person but this person's been to a lot of different areas potentially a lot of contacts. Luckily so far his flatmates were are negative and they would be the people most at risk so the may well be very little if any spread here. But you just don't know and it's possible that he's got the uk variant of the virus since the uk very was on. That was on the floor of the people. He was speaking after him so one of the things they're doing is they're canceling weddings for the next five days like you say this Mosques are expected to be in place and a lot of other measures that have been put into place in norman. You've said basically since the very start of this podcast. If people can bear the cost him on set far back that the way to get on top of these fires is to go in hard into going to ease their limit to the hardness and early. Nece that you are prepared to endorse. This is still within your your realm if you want to control this virus. There's only one thing that works when you really when you when you don't know where the virus is and that is a longtime which stops people coming in contact with each other and running the risk of spreading the virus. You got to keep the virus away from other people. So the lockdown is what works now. There's no question. As new south wales has shown that guerrilla good contact tracing high testing ritz contact tracing. An isolationist required does make a difference and can get under control. But that's taken weeks in new south wales when there's been no uk variant the uk variant as people listening to chronic will know eddie homes on from the university of sydney a little while ago. Is that the wuhan. Virus spreads from one person to about two point five the uk variant spreads from one person to about three point four. That's probably the best way of thinking about it. Robin the percentage is a fifty percent or seventy percent more contagious so it is a lot more contagious and remember. This is a virus that spreads in clusters rather than evenly spread through the community. That's why these venues are so important to come to actually pin down get tested. Who were at those venues at those times published by the west australian government so it could be like southeasterly korea and queensland where it turned out to be a fisher on nice vizner to have and they're able to lift the lockdown early and that's great but a three four or five day locked on is much better than some stopping and starting not controlling the the virus which is what they've done and look what happens and the other problem and w. unlike new south wales and unlike victoria is they haven't had any community spread for ages knives since early be early last year and so people had returned to normal soon. Can't expect them to kind of do half of a social isolation process. You've really got to pull the whole population back. And then just your sees it up for five days and the you know the good news is likely to be that there hasn't spread but it's possible has in which case just got to give under
The huge coronavirus challenge facing America's new President
"I'm health reported. Teigen tayla journalist alter norman swan. It's thursday the twenty first of january. That's right and early this morning at least australian time joe biden has been sworn into office the new president and before he took office he was really clear that he wanted to be very tough on coronavirus but the scale of the pandemic in that states is just massive. Yesterday they passed a mall. Start four hundred thousand deaths. The pace of the spread really isn't slowing down. Is it actually possible to for joe biden to get the pandemic under control and if so what is it going to take well as going to take a lot and we just should not in passing. Yesterday's really moving ceremony at the mall commemorating the deaths or honoring the deaths of of the more than four hundred thousand people who've died of covid nineteen now and you'd have to say that's a number that's been largely preventable To a very significant stint of america had got its act together early on and just a very brief run through of the disaster that unfolded in the united states where they knew it was coming. Were in contact with the chinese. It didn't have a test that worked. The cdc was insisting that people use their tests. The food and drug administration was being very slow in approving new tests. People in washington state public health officials in washington state. Were tearing their hair out because they knew it was spreading in washington state and they had no national coordination of testing over testing infrastructure and just spread and spread and spread under the radar. People didn't know how much there was around and there were unreasonable restrictions on who could be tested so all on top of fragmented system with no leadership president trump constantly trying to minimize the problem and avoid it and undermined the people who were advising him and they jettisoned at the beginning of the trump administration. The jettison the obama pandemic plan win the game plan to pandemic in two thousand and nineteen year or so before the pandemic they found that it was wanting they didn't they. Were not ready for it. And the national stock pow was depleted. You can't imagine a bigger cluster of problems than they had in the united states. So what can biden do so. The first thing he's intending do is amp up vaccination rates considerably by creating you infrastructure for vaccination around the country remember. There's no infrastructure of general practice of coordinated healthcare systems in the united states. So you've got to set something up in parallel. So he's devoted a lot of money to that because apparently of the thirty million doses that have been distributed in the united states. Only a fraction have actually been administered extrordinary situation again with very restricted rules about who can be immunized not an does it does reports of doses going to waste so even dozes. They're supposed to being given have not been given an actually have been thrown in the bucket. The other thing that he's going to do is create a national testing infrastructure. Sin factory coordinator testing nationwide. Don't believe it or not having have have at the moment and then there's mass mandatory mask wearing in federal property which is really the only power i think that the president has and to encourage mask-wearing around the country. But reality is that only a severe and very long lockdown we'll get this under control while the pandemic spreads and it will spread for a long time while they are immunizing. It's going to be a long time before this is coming. This comes under control. So essentially the biden administration is doing nothing. Fancy is doing stuff that's just basic controlling pandemic starting on the back foot really like in some ways the trump administration they were the ones that have allowed the vaccine to get up in such a short amount of time but so many of the other parts of the public health response there have have put them in a disadvantage. Now yes you can see that and we confronting this as well in australia. It's not just enough to have the technology the vaccine you've got to have the means of distributing it
The great big coronavirus balancing act of Christmas 2020
"I'm health reported. Teigen tyler physician and journalist author norman swan. It's the twenty fourth of december. Christmas eve and in new south wales at least looking at some slightly revised restrictions over the next few days for christmas which depending on how you look at it as a welcome reprieve for people who really want to see their family and friends or an opportunity for the virus to spread. Yes i mean. That's everybody's fear that. Christmas is a sporting event. Will it is if it's the viruses circulating so what they've decided to do as anybody. Listening on the northern beaches will know is. They've divided the northern beaches area in to a southern region and bet scott's slightly lower restrictions that are similar to greater sydney. Except that they're they're not allowed to leave but people can come in for christmas day. Boxing day on the twenty seventh but with the northern beaches There's still nobody going in and out of people are coming round. It's only people from a from that area from the northern part of the northern beaches and they're not re- relaxing restrictions on greater sydney. So yep we are letting things go a little bit but not a lot you balance the risk of the virus spreading with giving people freedom to go and celebrate christmas as they want to like. There's going to be places where the risk of the virus spreading is hire and other places where it's low and maybe it's not fair to just look everyone up in this under the same tough restrictions out of an abundance of caution well while most cases are traceable back to the northern beaches outbreak there are still cases in the eastern suburbs of sydney in the northern suburbs and the western suburbs and those cases grow albeit slowly. So there's there's actually a fair question to ask is why restrict this to Northern beaches when there are problems in other areas and i think the statistic here is how much unknown spread. Is there in new south wales. There's not very much but there is a bit so there's a risk elsewhere so they can't let up too much and there is a calculated risk in three days of slightly lower restrictions in order for people to circulate by the trying to limit that circulation in terms of high risk areas in northern laura's carriers but the still a potential for a super spreading event which we would only find out about five to ten days after christmas so this the toughest restrictions are in the northern beaches northern part of the northern beaches. Like you just said norman. But is the risk confined to that area because we've seen cases popping up in other parts of sydney as well though. The risk is not confined to that area. It's just highest risk. Just makes sense that there's more most of the viruses circulating circulating in the northern beaches. And what they're saying is circulating in the northern part of the northern beaches but viruses circulating in greater sydney each day there are more cases outside not very many more but there are few cases in the eastern suburbs of sydney. There are some in western suburbs and in northern suburbs so they just slowly grow still linked. But i mean for example if you take one. Daily is an italian deli stroke cafe in paddington called elementary. There's already been a secondary case from there. So now you've got a chain of transmission in that particular cafe which has gone from what i understand to be a hairdressing salon to somebody who worked in that cafe who then has inadvertently spread that to somebody else. We don't know whether it's a customer or a staff member
Four leaks in three weeks - what's going wrong?
"I'm health reported teigen thailand physician and journalists dr norman swan. It is wednesday the twenty third of december a couple of days from christmas and at least in the greatest sydney area. A lot of people are looking at the christmas that they were planning. Obviously we're watching the case numbers in the northern beaches of sydney really closely. But let's just zoom that for a second and look at what's been happening in the last three or four weeks in that area because it's been more than one leak out of quarantaine. There's been four leaks in three weeks as far as we can see but before we get onto that what we want to say. Corrina cast is. Take our hats off to another wearing hats right at this moment but really dolph our caps to the contact tracers in new south wales. I mean they're just unbelievable. They've got this dying to eight cases yes there are still fairly significant issues. Were pressed upon. Because it's christmas coming up but it's it's an astounding. Effort really is incredibly impressive. As we come with christmas we should just anybody who lives in new south. Wales should really just be thanking the contact tracers for such a fabulous job. They're doing and they're really onto this and the miracles that diamond diamond class contact tracing. I'm sure that that's right. It is really really impressive. Diet hug contact tracers but definitely give them the covid safety stints round of applause if he can absolutely so. Yeah something is going wrong. There's no question about that. There are no as you say four cases so what are. There's the man who drove the bus at the airport with an overseas aircrew from the airport. There's now a nurse who caught it again zoll all going on report a transporting people who were on well third case. This is not necessarily chronological order. Who was not law. Who was right about the time of the van driver to cleaner hotel again. With aircrew in the hotel she was the first and then there was the. There's the the northern beaches outbreak which almost certainly is from somebody who came in from overseas yet to be determined aircrew. Somebody who left hotel. Quarantine booster positive. Who knows what that was. But we don't know that yet so four things going wrong and the genomics. There is showing that they are different points of entry. Yes except as we record current cast. We don't know what the genomics were or was sure with a singular plural on the on the nurse so we don't know what the source of battle laws be presumed that it was different from the others so yes there are different viruses causing this probably from different places from the bus driver and the nurse looks as though the The transportation is high
Why are we still waiting for travel bubbles?
"I'm health reported teigen tyler and opposition and journalists filter norman swan it's choosy fifteenth of december and for anyone who has loved person who lives overseas. Which i think is most of us. where all kind of wondering when we can open up the borders again yesterday norman. We heard that new zealand is okay with having a travel bubble relationship with ustralia. But there's still some other hurdles that they want to jump through i. What's the delay. And why aren't we seeing. Travel bubbles opening up with more countries where we could. Interestingly china could be one of the countries that we do. Singapore were done at very low levels. Taiwan not south korea anymore Once upon a time you might have thought south korea so there are a few places in the world. The pacific islands who desperate in indeed of our tourism dollars so there are a few places which have our virus or very very small amounts of virus circulating. I don't know what new zealand is waiting for. I mean we've got virtually no disease spreading in the community nor infections spending the community hotel quarantine. Yes but they've got quarantine to maybe they just wanna see us being tested again for a little while just to see how we were going case. We're lax about hotel quarantine that might be what's going on there with new zealand but we could open up right now at an incredibly low risk. The problem is is that it's a bit like sex ak go on next to party talk. This is my now so we what we're talking about here. Is this the all sorts of sexually transmissible diseases. When have sex with somebody. You actually having sex with everybody else. They've had they've had sex with and the virus got something else. You can contract that. That's the problem here with travel. Bubbles is wayne you get into bed sexual analogy with a country. You're getting into bed with all the countries they've got a relationship with in terms of air travel bubbles or how they do it so new zealand is is pretty safe. There's strict as we are in terms of who's coming in and going into hotel quarantine and therefore you can be pretty sure that their border is not is not loose and therefore at risk. Singapore is another issue and the pacific islands are if they're not careful about their borders or somebody's not transit. Here be careful. somebody's not just transiting through. Singapore and singapore becomes a way station for people trying to get into australia. The back door and that requires just filthy. Mine teagan just to yourself. I stopped analogy a while ago. And you're just key ongoing planet to say to him ahead anyway. That's the that's the risk to be sure that their border controls because essentially it's only as safe as their borders and if their borders are open effectively. You're opening the borders to australia vibe. Whatever country we have the bubble with so it's pretty safe with new zealand pretty safe with the pacific islands. There's probably a lot of negotiation before you do it with singapore. I would thought very safe with taiwan very unsafe with almost anywhere else in the
It's coronavirus do-over time. What would we do differently?
"I'm health reported teigen tyler an opposition and journalists alter norman swan wednesday the ninth of december. And it's episode. Two hundred of the corona cast so when we hit the one hundredth episode. We buy setback and went. Oh my gosh. We never thought we'd get to one hundred two hundred. I know it was like two hundred years two hundred days. Well it feels like a silent day to answer these questions from dane. Who says what do you think is the most important thing we've learned about. Nineteen in the last year and if we had a time over again what would we do differently. Well let's do something different. You answer that first to you. Know what i think. At an individual level we would have been more mentally prepared for the challenges of these. See the personal challenges of these see but from an infection control perspective especially in australia Harto corinthian outbreaks notwithstanding. I really do think that we have done an incredible job of keeping levels of the virus incredibly low in australia when we say overseas. What could have been here in australia if we hadn't taken that really hard stance from the beginning. So here's what. I think we would do differently. So the first thing. I'll start is internationally and this is a wishlist. I wish that we had had a more cooperative world when the virus hit if we'd had a more cooperative world you know. This is just wishful thinking but we had a habit of world without authoritarian fragile leaders in china russia and the united states. This would be a very different pandemic. in fact it may never even escape from china because they would have dealt with it transparently and they would have controlled it than they would have told people about it and they're told people about it in december. They're abroad in international help into wuhan market and checked where come from and the world would have pulled together on china's behalf and helped china out but we came into an environment where nations were operating by themselves and it was every state for themselves. And that's the sex. The ground for the pandemic so do differently do international relations differently. The biology of a pandemic organism is almost the least important part of that organism of the pandemic loss of different organisms can cause pandemics. It's human behavior that causes the pandemic so the way we live the way we act. Politics works so international travel works. That's what creates a pandemic what we would do. Differently is have a world that's more pandemic aware and aware of their behavior and aware of the broader implications beyond beyond the personal. That's what i would do differently than international level. The wild thing about that is that if we had done that we never would have nine. What scale of crisis. We would have averted but we do know that. This isn't going to be the last pandemic pathogen that if we ever encounter and saw are we need to take these lessons going forward so that the next pandemic is a fisa like this one should main. I'm a comeback to something. We said on corona cast probably in march march april the of the beginning when prevention works. Nothing happens and so the most important thing we've learned we should have learnt is or if you went back in time is that the general community knows that when you actually have prevention working nothing happens. So that's a lesson for everything and we're facing catastrophe with climate change but it's a slow moving catastrophe and if we actually act on climate change not very much will happen and that's what you actually want to happen. So people talk about all paul early in the seventy s sixty s and seventy s doomsayers population and. so on. The are all wrong because nothing happened. Nothing happened because people did some stuff about that sort of thing and of course nothing happened. So what we learn from this is successful. Prevention is dull and boring because nothing happens. There's no drama.
Here we go again? More problems with hotel quarantine
"I'm health reported teigen. Tayla journalists dr norman swan. It's friday the fourth of december and norman. Just as we felt like we were getting on top of the south australian outbreak and everything was coming towards what felt like it could have been an even keel in australia. We've heard that there's been another case of hotel. Quarantine being transmitted to someone who isn't in hotel quarantine this time a domestic worker at a hotel in sydney. How do we deal with these scholley. That just an inevitable part of leaving during a pandemic so how do we deal with them when they happen. So far starts new the caveat that the time of recording this corona cast. We've only got partial information. More information will know marriage but this is going to happen from time to time. Not just in new south wales but elsewhere initially. It sounded disorders persons working across two facilities. It may just actually look located facility. You'll remember in victoria. People are strictly working in one. They are going to genomics just to work out. Where exactly this person got up from. Is it hotel quarantine order. They get it from the community again by the time you just as we the answer to that question nonetheless when you test workers in quota quarantine regularly you will pick up positive cases and you might pick up positive cases that are relatively mildly symptomatic or symtomatic. The otherwise card. So it's a good thing that we are detecting them and hopefully we're getting onto very quickly and they are testing the context of this person so we just need to see what happens here. But it's going to a car and we're bringing people overseas with coronavirus. This is gonna is gonna occur in all jurisdictions and nobody can look done new south wales or victoria or anywhere else. This is now going to be part of covid life moving forward and presumably as long as we are surveilling. That really closely. There's no need to go into full lockdown mired if you're picking up those cases very close to the source that's right and you wills has had outbreaks and quite significant outbreaks managed to bring them back down to zero. So this is going to be the same thing i can't. I can't imagine that this is going to be a problem of the dimensions. Of say. The purview cluster in south australia. But who knows. We'll see that. Knock allowing the premier. Wis necessarily did say that he wouldn't hesitate to close the borders again. Norman you give up on your dream of seeing caucus no. I'm still hoping that Run a me hotel. Quarantine new south wales or not. Well the other big coronavirus news. It's that in the last thirty six hours or so is that the uk is going to roll out the final vaccine really exciting to have real life people getting real vaccine at the end of this really really long pandemic approval so it's not a proper approval obviously just on a dive to make sure there's no major safety issues and the risk versus equation given how many cases get the uk favors just using this vaccine. They reckon the risk is low but they they will not have really looked at the data from the trials in any great detail. This point so it looks as if it's safe will it prevent infection. We don't know that yet it. May it certainly will prevent covid nineteen disease which is great given. You've had so many deaths in the uk and for us. It means that we shouldn't be rushing at all. We're not in an emergency situation. We'd almost no virus in australia apart from hotel quarantine and we can wait and we can let the british to be blunt. The british and the americans make mistakes learn how to distribute it double check that it's safe when they've given it to millions of people over the next few weeks and we will will put us much better shape from when we implement so the approval for the visor vaccine. Maybe some of the others will be over the next six weeks maybe longer. And then it's that we will do it properly. We actually talked about that in a bit more detail in yesterday's episode of corona cost. So if you're interested go back and check that one out. The other thing. Norman that i could say a very popular new story yesterday about someone who'd had sips associated with covid nineteen and he seemed to have a really dramatic recovery because of a massive dose vitamin say. What do we make of this not march. We'd be my first response was fantastic for the patient. It's a one off. There's no randomize ation here. People will argue that. You don't need a randomized trial with a parachute in other words. Prove parachute works. You wouldn't do a randomized trial parachute works. You try it out. So here's somebody that they thought was gonna die. Didn't die from mega doses of vitamin c. They'll think that they know what. The mechanism is presumably. They'll say that it's because it says potent antioxidant and it's doing something for the free radicals that may not be the case. Very high doses of vitamin c are actually pro. Oxidant and i suspect that if this works they haven't got a clue why but it might be a signal that you would actually test this out in people over on a larger scale to see what's going on so
As restrictions lift, some tips to stay COVID free
"I'm health reported teigen tayla and journalists daughter norman swan it's thursday the third of december and it's really ex- encouraging to say all around australia. Different restrictions is starting to lift. We sort of feel like we're coming into a different phase of this weird pandemic that we've had but when not out of the woods yet away so what sorts of things are we. Okay to sort of go okay. We're not going this hard on these restrictions anymore. And what things should we continue to do. Well the first thing. I'd say is to coronas listeners. We'd love to hear from you. What do you think once covered nine thousand nine hundred over. What will stay with you in terms of change behavior. Will you wear masks outside. We mask when you've got cold symptoms when you don't have to be tested anymore. We're gonna elbow each other. Ravin shake hands or we kissy kissy to complete strangers. You'll tell us what's going we'd love to hear from you. What changes you think you're gonna make in the long term because the memory of this pandemic will live with us forever and one of the weeds. Silver linings about this year has been that while we've been very distant from each other and there's been a big shadow over the year. We've also had less of the other diseases that we would just consider to be normal especially threat. Uinta wireless calls and flew seem to be circulating these ca compared to previous is so then the question is what do we do. Before fully immunized assuming immunization prevents transmission and that could be a year from now. It might take a long time or could be remarkably fast but nonetheless. We're still got a few months to go. We are not going to get vaccines probably to march being brought rolled out. We don't have the urgency of the united states and in person might come back to that a little bit onto more on tomorrow's current cast so kind to your question. I think at the moment if you get symptoms. You should be coming forward for testing. That's gotta stay with us right through and we're all fully immunized that can't change. I think that's not getting into spaces. That are too crowded unless you really have to being wary of poorly ventilated spaces. Indoor spaces i'm talking about those are things that are going to as you say to prevent getting the com code prevent is getting flu and we'll protect us. In general we certainly need to continue with a qr codes are in those jurisdictions that have them. That's going to be a very important part of our insurance in case there's an outbreak and i think that just prudent social distancing with people that you don't know you don't have symptoms and if you've got any symptoms you stay away from the people until you've got tested was would be the main things i think hygienes important question that you keep on washing your hands regularly trying to touch your face. That's very good hygiene advice. Which should last beyond the pandemic being careful off surfaces sneeze into your your elbow. Those are the sorts of things that will stay with me moving forward. So we've actually got a few questions about this nominee one of them's from someone in new south wales saying we allowed to hug yet or should social distancing still the norm. We can sit next to each other at restaurants but not hug which seems conflicting. Well i have to confess that with almost no virus circulating in new south wales which is where i'm based. I've started to hug. Shoot me down in flames. I've started hug. And it's only recently though confessions coming to go back to the jim and i'm still a little bit nervous in the gym because people are breathing heavily and washed on things very carefully to stay away from from the others as much as i can. I've started to hug but that trusts that. Somebody's not going to any symptoms and kind of know the person that i'm hugging a stranger and i'm not kissing so don't kiss people. I don't
The COVIDSafe app is back. Will it work better this time?
"I'm health reported taken tyler. An opposition and journalist alter norman swan. It's wednesday the second of december and with us. Today we have a special guest Technology reporter james patil. Welcome hello sorry. Jane spec in april we had high hopes for the covid safe at that. It was going to be kind of the answer to contact tracing in australia. And it was rolled out and it didn't really land the way. At least the government wanted to but they releasing type two point are the wake can give an update on what happened before. And what the new app. The new version of the app is promising. Australia's sunscreen right. That was the phrase back in april. I think it was twenty eight that it launched and at the time we were told it was the key to us being able to reopen and to be on being able to live our lives. Covid safe uses bluetooth signals to exchange little packets of data with other phones around you using that app as well. Yeah it didn't land so so well. There were early concerns around the app. Not working so on on iphone not working so well when the when it was in the background or the screen was locked. There were privacy issues as well and although there was strong downloads in the in the first few that's sort of type it off. Seven months later were now download downloads. Which is well below that forty percent target. That scott morrison sit back in april. How effective has it been even with all those problems. Has it detected any cases where we recently heard that there were seventeen. People not identified by manual contact. Tracing that covered saif was able to identify. We heard that in senate estimates just a little while ago as to how effective it's been it's actually quite hard to tell because we have very little data we don't know how many active user so that seven million donald's figure it's actually quite worthless because it could include a whole bunch of people who downloaded it and then deleted it or who don't have it actually running actively on their phone. Can we talk about the updated version. Then what what's the tech community's take on it now if people have got the app or they want to download the app is the new version going to address the concerns that were expressed at the beginning. I was speaking with the tech community recently Shortly after the announcement of the died and there was a mixture of surprise and despair. I think many of them had been working very hard to provide bug fixes into point up problems with the app and the very experienced senior members of the community and they heard about the update through a news article. So those a sense that i tried so hard to help out and then just being sidelined. It's true that they had been the duty had asked for feedback when they announced it. But you know the overwhelming response from the tech community was if we had been asked we would have said. Don't go with the system. Go with the apple. Google exposure notification framework. Which is also a bluetooth technology system but has been developed specifically by apple and google four contact tracing on on phones that run the the operating systems and many other countries are using it now and that's important for two reasons. I suppose that there's more proof that it is more sort of testing of how it works but also if there is a global standard means that can be international contact tracing and the great promise of that say you can reopen borders international borders earlier. And so have you got any fix on the current changes whether they'll make it more usable and more people will find it useful. The chinese are about how the phones actually exchanged bluetooth signals. So it's a small part of the overall game. The has taken a protocol code herald from third party which is called vm. Ware means that the phones according to the more efficient or they they're bitter Exchanging signals so before you know it didn't work so well on iphones didn't works so well knows locked. The saying those problems been solved. They've found work arounds and so on. There's a big caveat to that. Which is that in the past. Those kinds of also been made but it's light been found out that there are problems and that the work arounds aren't perfect. You know much earlier. Version of harold with something that the us and the uk. We're looking at using for their smartphone contact. Tracing but back in june. I decided against that and i went with the apple. Google i so no other country in the world is using the herald system so any idea toll. Why they didn't. What's the downside of the apple. Google system privacy. What what's the complaint. That's interesting because i actually had an email from the government media liaison after my article went out and he reaffirmed. That strategy has no intention of using the the apple approach. He argued that the problem with that approach is it. It only notifies the person if they've been exposed doesn't notify notify central health authorities. So you know. There's nothing to guarantee that the person's actually going to go and get tested
Why are health authorities still struggling to communicate?
"I'm helter for teigen. Tayla and opposition journalists daughter. Norman swan tuesday the first of december and this time a year ago there was a virus circulating in hubei province just starting to reported probably sprayed from mid-november and things are just gathering pace under the radar one year ago. We'll have to deep dive into the early days of the virus. But not today norman. Okay hold myself back well. The last couple of days have been a role ride again in adelaide. Norman we've heard about a man who was out and about with covid and there were question marks about whether he should have been an isolation or not and the communication seems a bit messy. And it's been a bit hard to know what he was expected to do. Or whether he understood what he was expected to do. And even now i can't really make sense of what he was expected to do whether he knew it or not. How do we make sense of these sorts of things and if we can't communicate it well then. How do we know that people actually know what to do. Yeah i think what you're seeing here is an early forgetfulness. If you like of the key message from this pandemic throughout deploy doesn't matter really what country you're in is that if you've got consistent messaging from the leadership in other words political leadership and your public health dealership then people trust that and the follow it and hopefully that advice is solid and australia by large. It has been solid. So that from prime minister to brandon murphy and from dana andrews and brett sutton and alan chang and so on so in other words. You've you've had your good synchrony. We've had very policies in australia in terms of lockdown okay. They've been controversial. But communication has been fairly consistent now in toria the data looked they were transparent but the actually weren't that transparent sometimes very hard for us to make sense of what they were actually saying. And i think that reflected robin name being deliberately obscure. It just reflected the fact that they're contact tracing was in a bit of a mess and therefore the really have good data to pass on. So now you've got this situation and it's very important to remember this because support for the next pandemic important if the coronavirus comes back in australia. Such as you've had in south australia is that surfaced jones behaviorally well differently. They've come forward to be tested however a wobble like this does create a problem for community understanding because the temptation here of course is to victim blame. Oh there's this guy and he's out in a boat and probably even imply that yesterday on corona cast. He's been out of the boat. What a decayed during this and so on and so forth it turns out. He's actually behave quite well. And if there was confusion over communication that confusion has been all levels the understanding. We seem to have got yesterday. Was that he in fact was a casual. Contact was told to wait until he was tested. He was tested. And i said we got the result. The result was negative so he wasn't in quarantine and then he was told to get another test at eleven days which apparently was positive and it was while he was positive that he was out in a boat. I'm not sure that the nudity was positive but he was out in about roundabout that period of time. So it's just another example where you're creating danger when you're not sure of your facts and and you jump in people us we jump into and but we are assuming that the information is accurate. Not making any excuses about this is just another lesson that how the authorities communicate is essential to the control of the pandemic and to this one. Because it's not over yet
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"The coronavirus. I'm health reported. Teigen tyler an emphasis in journalists daughter. Norman swan it's monday. The thirtieth of november and norman. Everyone is continuing to scrutinize the oxford astrazeneca vaccine which just me awakes ago. Felt like how best chance at a vaccine for card and it's it's come up with results as we talked about last week. That looks really promising. And then on closer inspection. They looked a bit. We'd there was a thing where a small group of people in the vaccine trial received a half toys and they had better results. But then now there's questions about whether they would give him a half dose by accident. How do we make sense of what's happening with this vaccine trial. It's actually really hard. So we we signalled all this. I think last tuesday on corona cash. So it was quite clear then. The they done something unacceptable which was tried to average two very different trials and one going to sixty two percent result effectiveness result of preventing covid nineteen disease. Which if it'd been the first vaccine to report cited pretty good because the registration level is fifty percent effectiveness but came after a visor moderna with well over ninety percent effectiveness. And then how. They got their average of seventy percent. Sh- really sounds like confection. Which is that the got in another smaller trial. A result in people who have does food or following had got ninety percent effectiveness. And all this goes back to pharmaceutical companies making scientific announcements by press release. We could talk about this til kingdom come. There are rumors circulating this confirmation but apparently they're rushing to publish this and that there's a report of the financial times they will publish this in the lancet thursday so thursday of this week british time. We should know a bit more about this trial and remember. This is a vaccine. The promise not to make profit side of that is cheap. And they've committed to giving very large doses. i think something enormous like a third of the world's doses of vaccines are relying on astra any so. This is a lot riding on this vaccine. So six effectiveness is better than nothing but hard to justify spending money on if you other vaccines around that are ninety percent but if there's nothing else around than what do you do so they may have to repeat the trial With a half does fall by food if you remember. There is rationale for that. Which is that. The chimpanzee virus that takes genetic material into the cell in theory generate an immune response in other words you immunize to the chimpanzee virus so the second vaccine does that you get the bodies kind of immune to actually the carrier for the vaccine so it doesn't prove to be effective the russians get round this by giving you two different carrier vaccines first. One is a different carrier. Virus from the second vaccine doors has a different carrier virus. Antibodies to the first one won't affect the second one but the the reason they chose. The chimpanzee virus was in the theory. That the human being wouldn't generate an immune response to a chimpanzee vars. It would be kind of invisible which is maybe wishful thinking about. They have studied this chimpanzee adenoviruses before so really we can talk about it. A lot on corona cast but will know hopefully the end of the week an awful lot more than we know now. But i suspect they're going to have to go back to the drawing boards and try a half those trial just to see whether or not they can get a ninety percent efficacy so we have some questions from the audience about this..
Is COVID-19 seasonal after all?
"Hello this is corona cost a daily podcast all about the corona virus. I'm health reported teigen tyler. I'm physician and journalist alter norman swan. It's tuesday the twenty four. Th of november cinnamon one of the questions that we've gotten a lot from people about over the course of this pandemic so far is whether it's seasonal and on one hand yes. The melbourne second wave happened in winter. But it's hard to really taes out. What's the difference between seasonality and a new virus in globe of susceptible people but in the states which is going into its wind up and also in in other parts of the northern hemisphere was seeing a really straight upwards curve a really scary looking curve. so what do we know about the season -ality or otherwise of coronavirus were joining the first wave. It was said that there was so much corona virus around swamped the effects of seasonality. Although most people expected this to be a winter virus a seasonal virus but they couldn't guarantee it and you just weren't necessarily seeing the effects of it on this week's health report podcast. I've been talking to chris maureen maher. Who's these of health metrics and evaluation in seattle and they've been doing global modeling now on the covid nineteen pandemic which has turned out to be pretty accurate so for the world for different countries and for the united states and they say that when they look at the big data they do find a seasonal effect and they. It's actually quite strong and the fascinating thing is that they predict that the virus in the united states will start to peak deaths from the coronavirus will peak roundabout inauguration day and tail off towards the end of january into february without any vaccine. You'll see a natural peaking and tailing off. We won't go down to zero but it will start to ebb away so in the joe biden was like trump. he would take four credits on day. Two of his presidency for turning around the pandemic. but it'll be natural. What's the driver for it to pay them. Is it that people interacting with a set number of people and you just kind of run out of context. How does how does that pay. Start to come down again. No it's obviously a little bit of an effect of natural museum that but even by january you still not going to see the majority of americans infected with the covid nineteen virus so a little bit of an effect because what they say. Is that even twenty percent coverage of immunity associated with some social distancing cooed tailing off. Now i think they it's simply how their virus response to temperature and although it's still in the middle of winter and pretty cold there are plenty of viruses that have most of their fates in autumn early winter and seem to die way in midwinter and influences a bit like that where influenza unistrokes tends to hit more in autumn than winter depths of winter. Not that we have much of winter. So yep they think it's seasonal tending often and if you are lucky with the vaccine the vaccine does prevent transmission then have an even more dramatic faked as the year goes through. Yeah i suppose they were some early nickname mention. It starts came out earlier in the saying that the virus survived longer at lower temperatures and in low humidity are. Maybe that's the season thing. But what does it mean for us australia. Coming into next year's winter if a vaccine isn't widely available by that time well if we've kept our international borders secure and we haven't had too many outbreaks and we're still social distancing to some extent when we need to enroll able to control then maybe not very much because the won't very much virus around but if there is a significant say outbreak from hotel quarantine for still doing it at that point. Then you could see a major takeoff and victoria. Tasmania parts of south. Australia would be vulnerable to that. So i'm trying to cross my mind that because we have talked about season on corona's before and i feel like we said that it wasn't safe no so will be wrong or is this just more information. I think you feel the wrong thing. T very different. I remember that people saying that probably was a season paper. You couldn't see it. In all the noise of an strength of the pandemic the pandemic was so strong it was masking a seasonal fake underneath the name what they thought was as the pandemic turned into an epidemic and the virus became endemic in other words. Steady in the community and keeping on recurring. Then you would see the effect of seasonality which might mean then you'd see a surge as the goats colder. I like that vision of memory. Yes yeah but no doubts kirk listeners. Who got a much better than either you. Army will fix us up. That's the lately and speaking of other research related things that we've talked about before and we now have more information about Antibodies on the only thing in our immune system and this nearly such out of monash university that shows that perhaps immunity to the coronavirus is long lasting than we feed. Yes so little bit of physiology. Here there are two elements to attack or threaten sweep elements to attacking a virus delicious. Talk of two of them for the moment. The first wave is really the antibody those chemicals in the bloodstream that attach to the spikes of the corona virus and stop it docking with tissues in our body and hopefully kill the virus as well and they're called neutralizing antibodies. now they'll come out of nowhere. They're produced by white blood cells white blood cells that produce antibodies b cells and some b cells have memory for the antibodies. They need to produce. It was a waste of energy then producing antibodies. All the time to a virus that they're not seeing but if avars enters the body they wake up and they say oh hello. I've seen this one before and they start manufacturing. Antibodies and this study identify found a way through using monoclonal. Antibodies to actually attach themselves to these b cells. Identify them they to twenty five people in march who had corona virus and follow them through to september looking at these b. memory cells and what they showed was that they maintain themselves in other words. You can still find b. Memory cells at the end of eight months so that suggests that the body retain the memory and the ability to produce antibodies to the coronavirus sars cov e to. This is not a peer reviewed study hasn't been published in a major journal yet but it is an interesting finding very sophisticated study and great needs to people who've had coronavirus but also for the quest for vaccine. That's absolutely right
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Hello this is corona cost a daily podcast all about the coronavirus. I'm health reported. Teigen tyler an emphasis journalists dr norman swan. It's wednesday the eleventh of november. And we've had some really exciting coronavirus news in the last couple of days. Norman fiso the drug company has announced that their vaccine that producing maybe ninety percent effective in stopping the virus. Do we all just pack up corona costing go home now to. We don't need it anymore. No because has doesn't operate on press releases scientific papers that have been pure reviewed where we know what's going on you'd have to say pfizer's a bit out on. Its own here at least so far. Anyway they've announced this <hes>. Interim analysis but it's not been peer reviewed and it's quite hard to work are exactly what's going on both fighters the one who hasn't actually joined the same platform of some of the other vaccine manufacturers. Who are out in trial. And they've got their data safety monitoring board which looked the analysis of this raw. The common one is what the monitoring board is being shared by. Some of the vaccine manufacturers. So it's not entirely transparent. There's also see you have to say also commercial element in this that they want to get a jump on it and the water here is that they're going to push for emergency use authorization before their presumably earlier than the other vaccines but the question is. Is it too early to know absolutely for sure that they're safe so they sort of questions to ask here are well. What does it mean. They've said nine more than ninety percent. Effective well you gotta read between the lines. Because it's not entirely clear from their release but it's been something like ninety four covid nineteen disease cases so this is not infections. Forty thousand people yep in the boats so this is these vaccines are not designed to pretend to fiction as we said many many times on corner cast they're designed to prevent covid nineteen disease which is fair enough because if you've protect against nineteen disease then all the sars cov to becomes is a bad cold. Let's assume that we talking about which is that has been ninety four cases thereabouts. I think that's what the announced and that they're more than ninety percent effective. It's should probably mean that something like eight or so of the cases of covid nineteen occurred in the placebo group and the remainder are six or seven or whatever it is six occurred in the vaccine group. But we didn't have those numbers. Stay away from visa. We don't have those numbers but you can assume then that from from that crudely of that ninety four percent ninety percent or more occurred in the placebo group and ten percent or fewer occurred in the vaccine group. That's what that means. And therefore is a significant gap between the two groups which is protection against covid nineteen disease. That's what i assume an endless things. No major safety issues. The ninety percent number <hes>. A lot higher than what we've been talking about on corona causton in all of the full out around this announcement. I heard a lot of experts. Say that's amazing. That's a really big number much higher than we expected. So that's good news right. What's what's much higher than the regulators were willing to approve. Everybody was hoping it'd be much higher than fifty percent because fifty percents pretty disappointing and so this is really great news. If it's all right and you get superior review study of the data and goes on long enough to have a proper analysis and it's really good news for the other mini. Vaccines are just just to be clear. What this vaccine is and just a little bit of a revision on the vaccines the so the oxford vaccine and this vaccine and the moderna vaccine three scenes around the are the lead. They do the same thing in the end. Which is they put a genetic message into the cell to tell the cell to produce part of the spike protein of the corona virus and that goes into the bloodstream and the immune response the immune system reacts to that creating immunity. How the vaccine does it is uses a chimpanzee virus to take the genetic message into the sale and what bio and take the pfizer vaccine does and the moderna vaccine is. Is that parcells up amorini. Which is a parcel of genetic messaging and it goes straight into the salad self and tells the cell to produce the part of the spike protein. So this is a name are a vaccine and it's really good news because there's another mirani vaccine on the blocks which is the moderna vaccine which isn't too far behind the problem with these vaccines is that there are very low. Temperatures to transport around minus eighty of madeira. People say there's may not require that depth of temperature this makes it a very impractical vaccine for poor and middle income countries and also does make it a bit impractical even for countries like australia. Where you're going to have to coaching at minus eighty on the coaching standard frigid temperatures and the university of queensland vaccine for example will only require an a standard vaccine fridge province minus eighty. So they are vulnerable it. They do first mover advantage so that they can get out there because they know they're vulnerable to other vaccines. That might come along. Which don't require that cold chain infrastructure.
"norman swan" Discussed on The Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove
"This is from norman swan anyway. He said that the first generation vaccines all they do. Is they prevent the disease. They don't stop catching it side. That was what i was concerned about. Was that actually. Stop the spread of the disease. It stops the disease actually forming. I heard the software that they said. it does. Stop transmitting the disease to somebody else. I can't maybe it does. i couldn't do. i don't understand it will either. but anyway.
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Coronavirus. I'm health reported teigen tyler. Opposition journalist alter norman swan is friday. The six of remember. That's right and we already had a couple of vaccine agreements in the bag with the federal government so none of the vaccines that are in the pipeline have been approved for use yet. There's a few that are kind of front runners. And we've we've now had another two agreements be signed by the federal government to give stralia access to the vaccines when even when they become available. So that's four now potential vaccines that are struggling to gain have access to norman. What's the benefit of having a couple of horses in the race for australia. Double of reasons for this just to quickly run through. There's the university of queensland vaccine which has yet to go through the sort of final phase trials that the other three are going through. So it's a it's a bit behind so essentially. This gives us a choice of three in the near town and allows us to have a supply. So you're varying your supplier. She's something happened with the manufacturing process. So that's the first thing that happens. Secondly we're varying the technology that we're backing so others three four different technologies that were backing here with vaccines that gives us some insurance about which ones might succeed or not and it's not just if they fall over and they don't make it to approval it's also some may be more effective. Remember these vaccines will get regulatory approval if they're fifty percent effective at preventing nineteen disease not infection covid nineteen disease so if one of these vaccines does that seventy percent. Well that's pretty good and we might have one of those in the in our back pocket one of these vaccines might do it at sixty percent bought prevent as well. That would be good to have in your back pocket so really clever thing to do is to back. Different technologies for all those reasons falling over effectiveness and securing supply. Should the manufacturing process fall over and just to recap so the initial to agreements. Where between australia and the university of queensland back saying that you mentioned still a little bit further behind in its prices..
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"I'm health report, a teigen tyler, an opposition journalist Alter Norman Swan is Tuesday the thirteenth of October the advice on masks has changed a lot over the course of this pandemic. Hey at the beginning, we were getting some mixed messages about where the mosques were effective at all whether perhaps they could do more harm than good and then over time and we have talked about it a lot on this show already and you acquire vocal quite early on. In the pace that mosques are fictive and that they should be made mandatory in the heavy made mandatory in Victoria. The lightest that we know about what types of face coverings provide the most protection against carbon. So let's just do a little bit of the history going back to the can remind ourselves in the beginning World Health Organization and expert groups such as ours in the study were down on what's called Aerosol Spray..
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Salman one of the things that we get a lot of questions about is whether the coronavirus ease mutating and we know that it ease and one of the big reasons why this is concern is. . Because with all over the world, , scientists are working on vaccines and treatments against the virus. . But if it mutates and the parts of the virus mutating other parts at those treatments targeting than, , they might not work. . So CSI rise put out some new research about the g strain of the virus, , which is sort of the dominant strain now and whether the vaccines. . That are currently in development still going to work against these dominant strain. . That's right and the reason why this particular strain if you want to call it, , a strain of virus has survived the full name of it is the D six, , one, , four gene mutation defy but turns you on Cadillac yeah, , it's probably more transmissible and it's a mutation that's tended to. . Survive around social distancing. . So we've socially distanced the Wuhan version of the virus at the beginning was probably controlled by social distancing, , which preferentially allowed mutants of the virus which were war transmissible walk contagious to survive, , and this is one of them and it seems to be comedy certainly dominating in Australia. . There is another strain on top of this that's dominating <unk>. . Aware. . which is also probably more transmissible out. . The fact is that this mutation is on the spike protein as you'd expect it to be because despite protein is the docking mechanism if you like for the virus to get into our bodies by the h two receptor sceptre, , this lock and key mechanism in the body. . Now, , if this was in an area, which , is also targeted by the vaccine, , because the vaccines do target the spy proteins. . And the spike protein has changed too much than the vaccines might not be effective against the. . Six one, , four gene mutation, , and that's been the worry and particularly with other mutations on top. . So as an accident of evolution, , could it be that despite protein becomes resistant to vaccines and what they did in this study was a study of ferrets in the Csiro where the exposed this to a vaccine which has got similar viral backgrounds in terms of covid nineteen. . To the other vaccines around and they found that in fact, , neutralizing antibodies where generated numbers the sort of antibodies that could kill the virus, , which generated two forms of the virus that have the D- <hes> six, one, , , four, , g mutation. . So that's good news. . The also did some modeling on that and they found that from their modeling that supported the fact that the. . Vaccine was going to actually cover this new strain as well. It . doesn't mean to say they won't be mutations in the future that could mutate around the vaccine but at the moment we seem to be okay. . Yeah. . One of the things that was kind of comforting for Australian context at Laces they will look you that we're looking at a stray leeann isolate. . So USTRALIAN samples of the virus that are actually currently circulating hia and the research was done here and so far it's still seems like so good in terms of the vaccines that are being developed us, , right so The exposed the ferrets to viruses within without the <hes>, , the mutation, , and the also did it in the modeling. . So another thing that's come out research wise in terms of protection is that they've studied Tasmanian healthcare who had the virus a few months ago and they found that they don't have antibodies after about three months. . Is this a worry attempts of how long were immune to the virus? ? If we do catch it that's A. . Matter of strong debate amongst immunologists and infectious disease experts around the world. . The current thinking is no. . It doesn't matter what matters is has the body's immune system memorized the virus and memorizing the virus happens in t cells smell former white blood cell, , not the white blood cell that produces antibodies. . So you don't need to have antibodies for the body to have memorized the virus. . So the real question will be is whether or not. . No antibodies protect them against future infection and we'll just have to wait and see on an international basis and it's been unclear from the reinfection you've seen overseas with this relates strongly in one way or another to the existence of antibodies over the long term because in some of these reinvasion cases, they , don't have an accurate assessment of their antibodies. . So the presence or lack of antibodies isn't a wire in and of itself. . But it could hint at the fact that immunity isn't very long lasting. . So I think that the lack of antibodies don't know what that means and we won't know what that means until we've looked at reinfection rates and the results of vaccine trials and whether or not. . It really matters whether you've got antibodies in your bloodstream or not. . It's really whether or not the T. cells of memorize the virus that will be seen in. . Whether or not the vaccine lasts and whether or not people who've had covered nineteen disease stay immune to reinfection so far there haven't been that many reinfection internationally give them that we for tens of millions of cases, , but we'll see. .
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Taylor and opposition journalist Obser- Norman Swan is Friday the ninth of October Salman one of the things that we get a lot of questions about is whether the coronavirus ease mutating and we know that it ease and one of the big reasons why this is concern is. Because with all over the world, scientists are working on vaccines and treatments against the virus. But if it mutates and the parts of the virus mutating other parts at those treatments targeting than, they might not work. So CSI rise put out some new research about the g strain of the virus, which is sort of the dominant strain now and whether the vaccines. That are currently in development still going to work against these dominant strain. That's right and the reason why this particular strain if you want to call it, a strain of virus has survived the full name of it is the D six, one, four gene mutation defy but turns you on Cadillac yeah, it's probably more transmissible and it's a mutation that's tended to. Survive around social distancing. So we've socially distanced the Wuhan version of the virus at the beginning was probably controlled by social distancing, which preferentially allowed mutants of the virus which were war transmissible walk contagious to survive, and this is one of them and it seems to be comedy certainly dominating in Australia. There is another strain on top of this that's dominating Aware. which is also probably more transmissible out. The fact is that this mutation is on the spike protein as you'd expect it to be because despite protein is the docking mechanism if you like for the virus to get into our bodies by the h two receptor sceptre, this lock and key mechanism in the body. Now, if this was in an area, which is also targeted by the vaccine, because the vaccines do target the spy proteins. And the spike protein has changed too much than the vaccines might not be effective against the. Six one, four gene mutation, and that's been the worry and particularly with other mutations on top. So as an accident of evolution, could it be that despite protein becomes resistant to vaccines and what they did in this study was a study of ferrets in the Csiro where the exposed this to a vaccine which has got similar viral backgrounds in terms of covid nineteen. To the other vaccines around and they found that in fact, neutralizing antibodies where generated numbers the sort of antibodies that could kill the virus, which generated two forms of the virus that have the D- six, one, four, g mutation. So that's good news. The also did some modeling on that and they found that from their modeling that supported the fact that the. Vaccine was going to actually cover this new strain as well. It doesn't mean to say they won't be mutations in the future that could mutate around the vaccine but at the moment we seem to be okay. Yeah. One of the things that was kind of comforting for Australian context at Laces they will look you that we're looking at a stray leeann isolate. So USTRALIAN samples of the virus that are actually currently circulating hia and the research was done here and so far it's still seems like so good in terms of the vaccines that are being developed us, right so The exposed the ferrets to viruses within without the the mutation, and the also did it in the modeling. So another thing that's come out research wise in terms of protection is that they've studied Tasmanian healthcare who had the virus a few months ago and they found that they don't have antibodies after about three months. Is this a worry attempts of how long were immune to the virus? If we do catch it that's A. Matter of strong debate amongst immunologists and infectious disease experts around the world. The current thinking is no..
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Yesterday Norman the world clock devote one million deaths from covid nineteen since this began less than a year ago it's been reported by the Johns Hopkins University. . Dashboard, , which is a pretty morbid side that keeps keeps an eye on all this sort of stuff apart from the one million deaths we've got thirty three point three, , million cases in counting. . And it's amazing to think that this all started from one person probably about less than a year ago. . Yeah. . Ten months ago November, , that's the smart money is one person in China from a Bat Or Bats and moved into on ESPN. . Is, , an extraordinary number. . And this is not necessarily going to slow down as many countries go into the second way. . So we're at one million. . What's the chance? ? Do you think we'll get to two million? ? Oh, , I think that we'll get to two million without too much trouble unfortunately. . We've got view of the United States figures on that Hopkins sites the United States numbers are going back up. . There were going down a couple of weeks ago or through a few weeks ago and other going back up. . Second Wave Solidifying in Europe France, , not come back to France and a minute. . So I think that we will get to the the the second million sadly tragically and low to middle income countries are really just getting going with this and there that just don't have the medical facilities that we do into in terms of helping people who've got severe illness. . So unfortunately, , this is going to go on. . So when you look at also where the number of deaths really have. . occurred it seems like about ten countries account for more than seventy percent of the debts. . Obviously, , the US is the big one there nearly a fifth. . That's about two hundred and something thousand followed by Brazil India Mexico the UK Italy, , where do you think that the new deaths will likely come from? ? Where is the the virus currently growing? ? It's going to come from those countries probably because they're the one seeing second wave in the second wave could well be worse than I. . I wouldn't be surprised if that looks pretty similar. . In some other countries, , you're not necessarily going to know what's happening because they're not doing enough testing to really be sure how much corona virus they've got many people are dying of it. . So I think it's in countries with doing testing that you're going to see the effect and it's likely I mean you see a million? ? It's likely that it's seven to ten million in reality. . Because we are underestimating the amount of coronavirus around. . So one million is just what we know about seven to ten is probably what the real figure actually is, , and that's really scary. . You mentioned the the second wives coming through a lot of countries and where in Europe, , in particular saying a lot of cases suddenly jump up a lot from where they were. . But. . We're not actually saying the death toll yet follow. . Why do you think that is all and do you think that it's likely that that's going to continue that trend so one reason you see a delay in the deaths appearing is that it takes a couple of weeks. . People become seriously ill, , and then we can be seriously over quite a long time. . So that's one reason why it's a delay. . There's probably a reduced death rate as well because the getting better at treating people in intensive care with decks meth zone, which , reduces death rates by twenty percent nursing tummy not using ventilators and also the older people are so socially isolating themselves wearing masks. . So they're tending not to get infected, , and so the bias infections towards younger people who tend not to die of covid nineteen of Ova can get long-term effects we've spoken about. . On Kurna cast before and you mentioned <hes>. . France before what did you want to say about France? ? France. . Is reporting an upsurge and the authorities there are really getting worried in its report there that for example, , one of the senior doctors and France as told newspapers that <hes> they're worried that there's going to be enough medical personnel to be able to deal with the the record number of cases that are appearing in France and that they may run out of intensive care beds. . And it's patchy and it's also into an underprivileged areas such as Marseille where there's a lot of overcrowding and there's the worry that the capacity of the French hospital system to cope with could be welcomed a very good hospital system. . So you mentioned testing before and there's been quite a few announcements recently about testing the other day we saw one from the World Health Organization about rapid testing and I think we also saw demonstration at the White House by President, , trump what's the rapid testing? ? All about what what's it hoped that it'll achieve take overseas before we get to Australia, , what the World Health Organization has done through the gates. . Foundation is purchased one, , hundred, , twenty, , million test kids rapid test kits. . and. . These test kits. One . of them in particular is a bit like a pregnancy test where you do a swab, , you shake it in some liquid and then you Putin liquid on a test strip and you went fifteen minutes into the. . Shows the line or to bend your positive for the virus and it's pretty accurate. . It's not quite as accurate as the PTR tests the wonder doing the moment but you don't need the artery. . You don't need cars to take your samples to a laboratory then get an Aq- and wait for the results. . This is done on the sport fifteen minutes. . You've got an answer. . So it's a way in resource poor environments to get an answer and it is cheaper than doing the PC artists. . In countries like Austrailia, , these tests could be used as a way of controlling the pandemic moving forward. . What are we going to do in states like Batori and you South Wales even Western Australia with US tonight breaking the ship off the coast of port hedland where everybody's vulnerable to new infections coming in from overseas in particular? ? HOW ARE WE GONNA? ? Make sure there's no virus circulating that we're not aware of and mass testing particularly where people gather in large numbers is one way to actually see whether it's almost like screening the population see if you're missing any virus. . And you can't really do mass screening with the existing resources because you're just going to clog up the system. . If. . It's instant testing people are more likely to agree to it because they don't have to hang around. . They don't have to isolate themselves until they get a positive result. . And it's a way of quickly finding out what's going on in an affordable way. . Do you know any plans by the Australian government to get any of these rapid testing kits and and instigate that that type of program with therapeutic goods administration has stralia has approved several of these I think it's four or five of these rapid testing kits so that all they're already available in Australia. . The one ones that w chose bought, , which is like the pregnancy test. . By Abbott, , his is still under consideration for approval and there's no reason why wouldn't be approved. . So the the tests are available here and available affordable price. . The ideal here would be one that self contained. We . don't need a little machine sitting on a desk some of them do you have to put it into machine? This ? one is a shake squeeze onto a strip and just wait for the result and there are others do that as well. . So there's no reason why not? ? No in Victoria the DAUGHERTY institute is testing a way of doing mass testing using the PR test, , which is the old test if you like the accurate using using saliva and they're testing that in the thousand members of the police force just to work. . Out, , what is the most efficient way of collecting the saliva? ? So you could mess testing with the old way of going about it, , but the rapid testing is probably more flexible, ,
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"About the coronavirus. I'm health report taken tyler non physician. Journalists. Alter Norman Swan is Tuesday the twenty second of September. I guess in a podcast it's literally all about pandemics. It's not surprising that we talk a lot about vaccines on this show Norman but let's talk about them a little bit more today. We've had lots of questions about vaccines including why you've said a couple of times why second round covid vaccine would be more effective than the first ones that we see coming out where they've kind of got to be more effective is exposed the answer the otherwise you're just going to be world recalled and pharmaceutical terms me toos. Hopefully, the is are fantastic. You know ninety percent effective even really good but there there are problems with the first round. One problem is the coaching, for example. So it takes the MODERNA vaccine. The vaccine reportedly is less than minus one hundred. The Oxford vaccines got to be transported at minus seventy when normal vaccines are transported at frigid temperatures, which speaks much more practical. So the University of Queensland Vaccine, for example, should it be successful is transported a frigid temperatures. So you could call that second round vaccine because it's not it's not there in the front. Line in terms of nine vaccines that are being trialed at phase three at the moment, and if it can be transported fridge temperature then University of Queensland Vaccine Oh cremate because he's going to transport vaccines at minus seventy with liquid nitrogen, and for example, the Madeiran vaccines to be kept very low temperatures to just before you use it and you're trying to get new unions upon millions of doses out there such a very difficult practical step. Pharmaceutical manufacturer, you'd have to say, why would I bother investing in the second round vaccine? What's going to have an advantage over the first time? That's exactly what they're going to be asking themselves and only a couple of things that are going to be looking for we're one is safety problems arise in the first-round well are the safer in other words? Do we know why the frustration was risky? It was hopefully it's not will be more effective. Do we know why the first join wasn't? If indeed, it wasn't that effective because they'll get approved fifty percent effectiveness. And so they are significantly more effective than they're going to be more attractive and they don't need to be transported around liquid nitrogen or even worse or even colder than. then. That's going to be a huge advantage. So those are all the reasons why second-round nobody's going to invest in a second round unless they think they've got an advantage over the first round I also wonder if people realize that there's actually a lot of vaccine's that we have today that went the first one it's not like he just hit a winner in the very first time. Apoptosis vaccine is different. Polio is different to the original ones that came out there. They're improved versions of the original one and a lot of scenes recombinant, DNA where the manufacture the DNA and attached to what's called the edge, and that becomes the vaccine rather than the real virus. So. Yeah. Absolutely. Right. The vaccines do get for find. Pertussis was the first round of protest vaccine was thought to have side effects, sore arms and inflammation, and so on. In the second round, called the ACL because it had sales in his so they can run a cellular had fewer side effects in the arm and so on. However, probably a bit less effective because it wasn't generating strong and immune response because reaction..
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"This is an ABC podcast. Hello, this is Carolina cost a podcast all about the coronavirus I'm health reported taken tyler position journalist. Author. Norman Swan it's Tuesday the fifteenth of September and this is something that we've talked about on the shy before from Rod Beck at the beginning but we've now got data about it and it's about the number of people who are seeking diagnosis of cancer during Harvard and so there's been. This concerned that perhaps people were worried about catching corona virus if we're going to healthcare settings or perhaps because of lockdowns I felt like they couldn't access it but can't Stralia has today released them statistics showing that? Yes the has been a national reduction in a range of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The three of the most common cancers in Australia. Yeah. If you go back in the corona, cast. To. April I. Think it was we had professor Declan Murphy from the Peter McCallum center talking about Victorian data. So what what was known for the first three months of this year really just came from Victoria and what they found from Victoria is that if you compare the number of cancer diagnoses in their cancer registry to to explain a cancer registry, every state has cancer registry they vary a little bit but the primary thing that they do is major. Record cancer diagnoses and there were about thirty percent fewer diagnoses in for three months of this year in Victoria compared to the year before which strongly suggested that he will wear coming forward for treatment and there weren't any national figures. So what we've got now from cancerous Julia figures that don't talk about cancer diagnoses, but talk about the procedures. That doctors used to diagnose various cancers, particularly, skin breast and bowel cancer. So Bow Kansas are.
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Sino Men People Victoria had been working really hard for weeks and weeks now to try to get the numbers down there and they've gone from seven hundred ish new cases of Covid Day Dan to two hundred in about three weeks. . I'm sorry there's another three weeks before those restrictions are due to the stage four restrictions. . How likely is that going to be able to go back to a normal way of life at that time? ? There are a lot of variables I think is highly unlikely that people will be going back to a normal way of life in Victoria for a long time to come, , for example, , mandatory mass to be out there for a long time to come what's a long time I don't know the answer to that question. . But really for quite awhile, , and certainly it's going to be a help to have mandatory masks when they do start relieving restrictions I think we're going to be very nervous about lifting restrictions with anything more than zero spreads. . So that's what they're expected expecting but I think that's Unlikely, , in three weeks and people getting tired in D., , H. S.. . So you've got some incredibly hard workers who the contact tracing the testing who are running teams and they're getting really tired. . It's emotionally difficult for them. . They're they're doing incredible work as indeed are victorians under this lockdown you'd have to say so an since which those teams hold together manage to actually go the distance themselves and then are those teams really being held by the system. . So you've got h care that still a problem Victoria it's not at all clear the extent to which you've got healthcare worker problems in hospitals. . They were very late telling us about the role Melbourne break. . There were probably late telling us about the Franks hospital. . If to save face or political problems, , they're not telling us about hospital outbreaks and those continue and they're being spread to patients. . I don't know whether they are not one here's anecdotes, , but if they don't get in there and solve those very specific problems of high risk workplaces like food, , processing storage, , and so on. . And each care and hospitals then they could continue to be sources of outbreaks moving forward. . So has the department got the capacity to get in there and just as a matter of interest for you the that's not the responsibility of Brett Sutton chief health officer. . There are other by teen structure in Victoria, , and they have a chief medical officer who's in charge of safety and quality in healthcare and the and the bureaucrats obviously have a major responsibility here. . So let's hope that they can get on top of that to control the epidemic. . What's Christmas look in Victoria look they could be zero spread certainly by Christmas we. . Should be zero spread well before that but it's this ability to actually get in there and deal with that and deal with it transparency transparently and shine a light on where the problems and admit to it because admitting to it is not just taking flak in the press. . This is about actually the whole system being organized around with our full who points of the outbreak, , and we know that there are focal points already and just telling us what their efforts are in those areas and their strategy because at the moment I suspect some daughter are being hidden from us and we don't know and I don't think they're going to get zero spreading unless they can sort that out. . Well, , we've got some. . Feedback and some clarifications from audience and thank you all so much for talking to us and letting us know what you're thinking about when you're listening. . I'm recalling clarification corner that's right and so the first clarification to clarify is that we asked you guys to send in how long it was taking tests to come back where you live and we said that remote parts of Australia it was taking twenty four to forty eight hours and then in Melbourne in Victoria it was taking about five days and people saying that Nar, , lots of friends and family getting Melvin test results back in twenty four to forty eight hours. . True. So . maybe there was a bit of a self selecting bias there as a health. . And Science report is we should be on that but <hes> thanks for keeping us on ties with that one you guys ended no defense. . We did say it was anecdotal, , but that's not us being defensive. . We should have probably emphasized that and I have another question for clarification, , which comes from our episode where she can go back and find which is why vaccines mandatory and we talked about their research, which , showed the suggested what the order of symptoms where which started with fever went to cough and so on and quite rightly people have written in and saying that is not to be taken as Gospel absolutely is right. . The any of the symptoms that you get in any order it doesn't you don't. . Have to fever go and get tested. . So Muscle <unk>, , sore throat that sort of thing get tested fevers essential and another thing that we're getting a lot from you guys on is questions about vaccine. . So we thought we would do a quick fire Monday on vaccines and just try to cover up as many of your questions as possible. . So Norman you ready to answer some vaccine questions off too deep breath ready to go. . Now, , how is an unvaccinated person a threat to a vaccinated person? ? So I take it this comes from comments at government level where people are saying well, , if you're not immunized, , you won't get on a train or you want to go to an office situation and what have you What's the problem with that? ? If everybody else is vaccinated well. . The fact of the matter is that. . This issue of Herod Immunity. . and. . The more people who are immunized the less circulating ours you've got and the less have spreading it. . So a big reason why you want ninety five percent of kids in their first year of life to be immunized and a lot of the rest of us to be reunited as well as so there's not much around. . So kids who are vulnerable in the first three or four months of life don't catch hooping cough. . So in a sense you, , we are trying to remove the burden of disease in the community how they distributed, , but it's Unclear but I would imagine through general patches through pharmacies <hes> and also targeted immunization programs to healthcare workers and heath care centers, , and so on. . It would be very silver to try and create a whole new process. . For this, we've , got recognize immunizing the public and that's what we should use. . In this case just make sure it was just the right place because you're going to maintain a call chain. . So the viruses are active and effective when when you get to the point of delivering is there enough evidence to suggest that it's safe not yet. . Which is why those phase three trials. . So important, , it doesn't take that many cases to actually find out whether it works and human beings. . Maybe four hundred people need to be infected with covid nineteen in vaccine experiment so that the two hundred, , the placebo two, , hundred in the active group to find out whether it works but you gotTa do it maybe thirty thousand people to find out that it's safe just to be sure that rare side effects don't emerge. . The answer is no particular question on pregnant women will it be safe? ? Pregnant women? ? The answer is unknown at this stage. . It's known that the influenza vaccine is safe is very safe in pregnant women, , and in fact, , pregnant women must be immunized for influence because you do not want to catch influence when you're pregnant. . And you don't want to be to catch it two straight after birth. . So pregnancies. . A really important question to be asked. . So pregnancy and children and immuno-compromised those are the groups of people where you are going to have to test it and be sure it's likely. . It will be safe from past experience. . But some of these vaccines are very new technologies that haven't been properly tested in all groups. . In the community we do know that the Oxford style vaccine which is the chimpanzee virus has been tested. . In children in with other viruses <hes>, , it's been around for a while that technology and it was safe and children and effective with other viruses. . I can't quit you homegrown in my head at the moment but says some experience there but the Mr Vaccine from the United States or Germany those we are yet to be tasted in those groups will get the vaccine I while they say that what who get it are. . People who are older people complicated <hes> medical problems, , healthcare workers, , and high risk environments. Those . sorts of situations which will be is I, , but here's the problem. . If you don't immunize the poll population as quickly as possible, , the virus is mutating all the time and that if you vaccinate if you immunize than mutations of the virus which are not covered by the vaccine could escape. . And multiply if you don't get in there, , do it quickly and that's one of the problems of Mexico or wherever is taking up the Russian vaccine some countries trying out in a couple of thousand people. . You could actually get mutations of the virus surviving in countries like that and seaways antibody resistance, , and we could be creating a nightmare for herself by ourselves by another country. . Just little bits of immunization and we get viral resistance. . Well, that's , a real nice note to end on. . Thanks everyone for your vaccine questions and let us know if you lock these quickfire rounds and if so what you'd like us to talk about next time
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Norman Swan it's Monday the twenty fourth of August Sino Men People Victoria had been working really hard for weeks and weeks now to try to get the numbers down there and they've gone from seven hundred ish new cases of Covid Day Dan to two hundred in about three weeks. I'm sorry there's another three weeks before those restrictions are due to the stage four restrictions. How likely is that going to be able to go back to a normal way of life at that time? There are a lot of variables I think is highly unlikely that people will be going back to a normal way of life in Victoria for a long time to come, for example, mandatory mass to be out there for a long time to come what's a long time I don't know the answer to that question. But really for quite awhile, and certainly it's going to be a help to have mandatory masks when they do start relieving restrictions I think we're going to be very nervous about lifting restrictions with anything more than zero spreads. So that's what they're expected expecting but I think that's Unlikely, in three weeks and people getting tired in D., H. S.. So you've got some incredibly hard workers who the contact tracing the testing who are running teams and they're getting really tired. It's emotionally difficult for them. They're they're doing incredible work as indeed are victorians under this lockdown you'd have to say so an since which those teams hold together manage to actually go the distance themselves and then are those teams really being held by the system. So you've got h care that still a problem Victoria it's not at all clear the extent to which you've got healthcare worker problems in hospitals. They were very late telling us about the role Melbourne break. There were probably late telling us about the Franks hospital. If to save face or political problems, they're not telling us about hospital outbreaks and those continue and they're being spread to patients. I don't know whether they are not one here's anecdotes, but if they don't get in there and solve those very specific problems of high risk workplaces like food, processing storage, and so on. And each care and hospitals then they could continue to be sources of outbreaks moving forward. So has the department got the capacity to get in there and just as a matter of interest for you the that's not the responsibility of Brett Sutton chief health officer. There are other by teen structure in Victoria, and they have a chief medical officer who's in charge of safety and quality in healthcare and the and the bureaucrats obviously have a major responsibility here..
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"The coronavirus I'm health reported Teigen. Tyler arm. Physician Journalists Ultra Norman Swan and say the twenty ninth of July and we're seeing a lot of cases of covid nineteen linked to age facilities now, which obviously a huge worry, because H K this lady's a high to very vulnerable people in terms of infection from the virus, and often the people who work there of vulnerable in different ways perhaps have less income security than they would like. So how do we manage this problem of in aged care? Become a political issue. The is largely in private age. CARE facilities in Victoria which come under the responsibility of Komo of government, the Commonwealth Minister Senator Kobe said well, there's really not this is not a systematic problem with these centers, sending in help to boast or furloughed staff, and so on, but the fact of the matter is, you can't have sixty age care facilities with problems and not have some sort of common issue across facilities, and it's likely to be although still to be shown I mean we've got an each care. Care Role Commission going on. Australia, we've had significant problems to do with residential care and complaints by residents and their families prior to Covid nineteen, and now here we have with covid nineteen, a very large outbreak in new, south Wales, and we not have multiple outbreaks or clusters or centers of infection in Victoria sixty more than sixty. In fact, so this suggests something common to these care facilities, and we're not seeing them in public facilities to the same extent in Victoria. So what is that about? And you can only speculate, and you can speculate that they haven't invested necessarily in expertise in healthcare support registered nurses in training in having PP available, and you're hearing rumors rather van concrete information You hear that h care facilities have their covid nineteen plan, but they've not implemented. It's just a piece of paper. In case, somebody comes around and checks or the not knowing how to implement it. Must indicate just cannot be anything other than an indication that there's something seriously wrong with the way the run H care residential facilities. What is the K. differences between public and private facilities? Do we know again? It's speculation, but what you hear is that public facilities residential homes in Victoria are more likely to have on staff are available to them. Some medical and nursing expertise, particularly nursing expertise, whereas private facilities may not, and it's about costs investments. May, be a situation where you can actually blame the individual home. If you've got across sixty, it may well be that the system of funding care is is at fault and that these age care facilities just unable to ride safe environments. If you're getting in one sector and not in another, there's something going wrong and we need to find that out. We've got the prime minister cutting short acquaint trip to come back to camera to get on top of this would-be hoping to see in the next week or so to start to change the. The the trend in aged care where you start to see no additions to the number of facilities already invaded. They would know what to do, so the problem is they don't know what the problem is is very hard for them to intervene. Yes, they can send an expert groups I think Estrin. Medical Group is being going in not group that deals with medical crises, and apparently it does it very well..
"norman swan" Discussed on Coronacast
"Teigen Tyler physician and journalist Norman Swan Wednesday the seventeenth of June, so as we've observed a bunch of times on this show, which seemed to be a pretty good spot in Australia at the moment when it comes to it, but that's certainly not the case elsewhere in the world. More than eight million people have now been infected by covid nineteen, according to Johns Hopkins University. It took nine days for the number of infections to grow from six million to seven. Seven million and less than eight days to get to the latest millions either pandemics, not slowing down. So what's happening elsewhere in the world nominee? Will it still going I mean? The United States tailed off a little bit, but that's largely because of New York state are lots of states in the United States which are now increasing, and there are some states that look as if they actually might be suffering from a second wave like south. Carolina and the league table of cases. Is America Brazil Russia India UK Spain Italy Peru. which gives you a sense of Latin America particularly, South America is a prominent source of new cases, which confirms what people already had a lot of which is Latin. America is a significant hotspot. As indeed is Russia, and Russia has had to revise its. Deaths reporting because it had all these eight, hundred, thousand, nine, hundred thousand cases and I think it was wondering reporting rows of handful of deaths, which made the WHO query their statistics, and they've rapidly revised that we oversee the far more deaths than they're admitting to. So that's the league table at the moment, and it is spreading, and you could argue that in some parts of the world are beginning to see a second wave. China's obviously worried about this outbreak in the. Food Market in Beijing and trying to control that very very quickly..
"norman swan" Discussed on This Podcast Will Kill You
"Right. I decided that I was gonna have to drink the bacteria myself. I thought I would just be having no symptoms for a few years after which I would have an ulcer and then Hallelujah. It'd be proven actually, I was very shy about this experiment. I didn't tell anyone not even my wife or Robin until afterwards. I asked my boss in gastroenterology Ian Hislop to do an industry for me, one day as he put the scope down me. He was saying berry, I'm not gonna ask why I'm doing this. And from around the tubing gritted out, just take the biopsy. So he took some biopsies from me and they were all clear Novak Titu, then I infected myself with bacteria that I'd cultured from a patient who did not actually have Alzheimer's, just indigestion and gastritis. I was able to radically his infection with some antibiotics. So Alrighty, I knew that I could if necessary take a treatment, which worked on this bug. I had some safety features built in I thought I drink the bacteria and. I, I was okay. But instead of being perfectly well, and having a silent infection after about five days, I started having vomiting attacks typically at dawn, I would wake up run to the toilet and vomit. And it was a clear liquid as, if you had drunk pint of water regurgitated, it straight back, not only that there was no acid in it. I remembered from my medical student days that if you have a meal where you drink so much beer that it's coming back up straightaway. It doesn't have any acid in it. I knew there was something unusual about vomiting and not having acid. And this is just one experiment on yourself. And you say, am I imagining this until I had another biopsy? I couldn't know for certain that I had the bacteria finally after ten days, I had the biopsy had another endoscopy and the bacteria were everywhere, in the lining of my stomach. There were absolute millions of the white cells that we call plus cells polymorphic, there was no acid being produced by my stomach. I was very uncomfortable without indus-, copy gagging and throwing up, but I'd proven that the bacteria could infect a healthy person. And cause guests rightous I'd proven Robbins disease. Really good on. I love that one. The words from the man himself air Marshall. So that was from an interview conducted by Dr Norman swan in two thousand eight for the Australian academy of science. Sarah didn't read it in an Australian accent. I'm not everyone will forgive you. They'll be thankful.
"norman swan" Discussed on The Science Show
"Community mental health services, which are clearly failing in some instances. And that's why it seems that as a kind of a final result of where people go in. They have nowhere else to go bring about it. After all of these revelations. There was a productivity commission announced by the federal government late last year. I guess that's kind of looking at it from an economic angle which might in some way surprise because you think well these people's lives at stake that should be enough. Rather needing an economic reason for it. But I suppose the good thing about this commission is that it puts it on the economic agenda of the government and get some. Look, the ideas how they currently spending mental health budget. So it's about nine billion dollars that goes into mental services each year at federal and state level. And so it's looking at how do we use that money? How do we use resources? And are we using the most effective way? I think it'd be unlikely that is cost cutting to be done. I imagine that might be the same. If not more probably more into community buy stuff in preventative services. So obviously crisis carries key. But how can we get in earlier? So we don't have the situation that is currently happening. Emergency department needing mental health treatment wrist before that another area where we saw a bit of a tide potentially showing signs of changing was the uptake of health insurance, which seems to be not quite as popular as it once was or at least the uptake is not growing at the right? You might expect. And Norman swan our colleague in the ABC science did a four corners investigation on this early in twenty. And here's a little piece from this chocks you. World, I suppose way you mainly care at universal funding. Go got private hill fund. Then allow behold you writing grainy at a pocket when you have one operation. I recall the reception assigned to me, I'll look I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by it's not going to be as much as you think. But then when it came out, I was oh my gosh. So if you people live facing big bills an expected, given the head insurance, and that seems to be one of the big problems here as you can still get a big Bill even with you might think you're covered wanted. This investigation revealed a lot of people have that experience with a have health insurance. They for whatever reason need to go to hospital have some kind of treatment done, and they find at the end of it. They he can be really significant out of pocket costs. And it kind of makes you think why do I have health insurance in the first place. And generally, the common reaction is to kind of blame the insurer Medicare for the rebates at provides. But what Dr swans investigation through four corners was looking at was actually finding that. In a lot of cases, the fault lies with rogue medical specialists who had charging extortionists face for specialist services. Call them rogue doctors wrote practitioners, or is this is this the system that we've gotten in their uprating within the law is that no laws been broken. That's the thing. They operate. In the laws as far as I know in strays, quite unique in the situation that doctors can essentially charge what they like. But certainly doctors and medical worries were I think came to point out that these are rogue specialists, and this is malpractice from a few bad apples, and is not a really widespread practice. But in saying that it's not good for the patients that end up with these exorbitant costs down about it. If it's not necessarily the insurance companies that are in control in some ways, the coverage is doing what was set out to do the fees are so high that they're not covered once the solution. If there is one well at the moment is and advisory committee looking at out of pocket cost, which is being shared by the chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, and that's looking at ways to ensure that people are better informed of fees before agreeing to treatment. But I think the key thing here is it's quite a complicated system, private health insurance specialists costs, and when I was looking at this story, I could not believe how complex it was. Just for me to get my head around gap cost schedule fees booking..
"norman swan" Discussed on The Science Show
"But one of the big stores of the week is being about mothers eating too much and the consequences for giving birth more on that coming up in the health report with norman swan but what about the brain i'm with professor christina jesoni in dunedin how much is the baby's brain influenced by what mother each because one has a separation between have sealed aegean the baby's physiology does in all there is but the separation is incomplete and so very early unjust station of course there's no separation in the sense that there is yet no placenta so very early in imbriani development the mothers physiology pretty much one hundred percent influences that of the embryo at that stage wants it becomes a fetus and there's a placenta on board than the placenta in some respects actors barrier between the mothers physiology and the baby's physiology but it's very selective barrier in the sense that it needs to pass some substances from her to the baby and what we're trying to work out is what passes and what doesn't and when the mother's physiology is abnormal one her body is not as healthy as it could be if that a causes substances that might be abnormal in her to pass to the fetus or if they might actually changed the ability of the placenta to act as barrier we're because alcohol does past doesn't it renault about that what about other matters do with diet yeah so alcohol passes and other matters to do with diet depends what you talk about now when people eat fatty foods for example then they have higher levels of circulating fats the free fatty acids which we sometimes think of his kinda bad fats.