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CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from SBF TRIAL: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried's Trial Defense Episode 2
"The most important thing is, you know, just because a lawyer tells you something is okay, that's not a defense. Geez, he said it. He seemed to think everything was okay. Yeah. That's not an advice of counsel defense that negates criminal intent, that's an excuse. In part two of our series digging into SPF's defense, we dissect Sam Bankman -freed's claims that his lawyers played a larger role in FTX's collapse than he did. It might sound like a stretch, but there is legal precedent behind it. SPF also says he was pressured by counsel into turning FTX over to their hand -picked successor. In this episode, we sit down with Mark Litt, the prosecutor who took down Bernie Madoff, Travis Kling, a fund manager who still has millions of dollars tied up in FTX, and Mr. Purple, a pseudonymous crypto investor and fellow FTX victim, to see if there's any legitimacy to SPF's claims that lawyers who were there for FTX's rise are now primed to rake in hundreds of millions of dollars in legal fees. Money that SPF says should be used to pay back depositors. I'm Zach Ousman, you're listening to the SPF Defense Podcast, a coinage investigation. SPF's position is that FTX would have made it through the crisis if not for his lawyers, which conspired to steal the company out from under him, cover up their role in its operation, and siphon hundreds of millions of dollars in legal fees from the bankrupt estate. SPF even names one lawyer in particular, Ryan Miller, who joined FTX US from the law firm's Sullivan and Cromwell, and planned on returning there after his time at the exchange, according to an affidavit from FTX's top lawyer. SPF says Miller conspired to hand the company over to Solcrom and their chosen agent, John J. Ray III, who also handled Enron's bankruptcy. And whether you come to believe Sam's claims or not, Solcrom and Ray clearly won. If FTX's bankruptcy process takes the two years like Enron's did, it's on track to cost over $800 million. And Solcrom's relationship has already been called out by more than just Sam. It's even been raised as an issue by senators and 18 state regulators. But could SPF be right about Ryan Miller and Solcrom's nefarious motives? And even if they did do some evil lawyer shit, will it be enough to get SPF off the hook? To fully understand this defense strategy, it helps to start with SPF's story behind his attempt to plug the now notorious multi -billion dollar hole at FTX back in November's collapse. As the story goes, he was preparing to handle the liquidity crisis by courting Nomura, Japan's largest investment group, and the crypto company Tron, who had pledged billions of dollars in liquidity to FTX, while other investors were still deliberating. SPF had said he planned on giving away most of his equity in the company, and therefore most of his wealth, in an attempt to make customers of FTX International whole. SPF has always maintained that FTX US remained completely solvent right up to the end. But SPF says his rescue plan failed because Ryan Miller and Solcrom agents at his company, including Tim Wilson, another FTX lawyer with a past at Solcrom, pressed him repeatedly to sign the company's over to John Ray in bankruptcy, and even implied that if he refused, they could have him arrested and quote, change control in order to authorize a proper insolvency process. SPF said he changed his mind within 10 minutes of signing, but it was already too late. And he says his lawyers reneged on their promises to let him select a board share, blocking him out of his accounts and refusing to communicate further. As soon as John Ray was installed, he chose Sullivan and Cromwell as FTX's primary counsel. To be fair, SPF actually has a point when it comes to the sketchiness of that process. Even outside legal observers have taken issue with Solcrom being tapped as the firm to manage FTX's bankruptcy. In fact, a bipartisan group of two Republican and two Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, sent a letter to the judge overseeing the case, urging him to appoint an independent examiner rather than Solcrom, which worked with FTX and Alameda before the collapse, bringing in $8 .5 million in legal fees. The senators argued, quote, given their longstanding legal work for FTX, they may well bear a measure of responsibility for the damage wrecked on the company's victims. Regulators from 18 states echoed that issue, saying appointing an independent examiner wasn't just right, it was also legally required. But back in February, the judge in the case threw out those requests, saying it would cost too much money, though we should note FTX's lawyers also charged the bankruptcy estate $21 ,000 over 20 days just for meals, which apparently isn't too much to spend. And if you ask the victims in FTX's collapse, this is all pretty important, considering it's their deposits and claims at stake. And if their money is being drained in broad daylight by a law firm who also helped FTX pre -collapse, that might not sit any better than Sam spending it. We talked to Travis Kling, who lost his crypto investment fund in FTX's collapse, and asked him to weigh in. If you ask me at the very beginning, do you think this is going to be one of the most expensive bankruptcies in U .S. history, I would say yes. Yes. You know, it's enormous. There's a ton of fraud, and it's magic internet money. Trying to kind of Monday morning quarterback this and say, oh, Sam would have been better off not filing for bankruptcy. That's not something that I feel very strongly about. And Solkrom's outrageous fees aren't the only reason for concern. SPF also claims Solkrom gave a clean bill of health to Alameda's trading accounts on FTX in a report with the CFTC just months before the collapse. Furthermore, in his affidavit, Dan Friedberg, who was both FTX's chief compliance officer and Alameda's general counsel until he stepped down following the crisis, says Miller only included FTX U .S. in the bankruptcy proceedings precisely because Miller knew it had the funds to pay Solkrom for its work, which backs up what SPF said about how FTX U .S. was never insolvent. So this may be a case of the fox guarding the henhouse. Solkrom denies any of this, of course. The firm's top bankruptcy lawyer, Andrew Dietrich, who told other lawyers FTX was rock solid in an email just days before the bankruptcy, said he only spoke with SPF twice. The FTX debtors also countersued Friedberg to seek damages, alleging he breached his fiduciary duties. We can't say much more beyond that because Solkrom never got back to us when we asked for a comment. But one thing is clear, what guidance Sam's lawyers gave him, and particularly what they knew about the business, will become integral to SPF's defense at trial. Even if you asked Ryan Miller before the collapse, the laws are pretty simple for any business, crypto or otherwise. Here he is explaining that concept at an MIT Bitcoin meetup in July 2022. Don't do fraud, don't lie, don't release materially incomplete statements. That then creates a basis for liability, liability from a criminal authority, be it a Department of Justice or liability in a civil context. Yet according to Caroline Allison's guilty plea, they had trouble following even those rules. In her sworn testimony, she said, quote, I agreed with Mr. Bankman, Fried and others to provide materially misleading financial statements to Alameda's lenders. Could Miller or any of SPF's lawyers, for that matter, be one of those others? Sam's other allegation that Miller contacted the DOJ to turn over documents that led to his indictment days before SPF linked, which controlled the company, makes Miller start to look even sketchier. But even if Solkrom really does have a true conflict of interest, could SPF really use their role in everything that happened to get an acquittal? Given that I'm not a lawyer, we pose that defense to Mark Litt, the prosecutor who took down Bernie Madoff. Can a lawyer be a criminal? Sure. Yeah. Can a lawyer be part of a criminal enterprise? Yes. Do they often go down? I don't know a lot of reputable lawyers who are going to bless lying to investors, lying to banks, intermingling funds, lying to auditors. If he happened to find one who knew all that was going on and blessed it, then maybe as a defense. But I tend to doubt it. You can't think of it as, well, oh, well, you know, Sullivan and Cromwell was involved or a former Sullivan and Cromwell lawyer was involved and, geez, he said he seemed to think everything was okay. That's not an advice of counsel defense that negates criminal intent. That's an excuse masquerading as an advice of counsel defense. Advice of counsel defense is very specific and narrow. You need competent counsel and they'll stipulate that any lawyer at Sullivan and Cromwell is competent in the subject area that they're being asked about. Second, every material fact has to be disclosed to them. Third, you have to seek their legal opinion on a subject. And fourth, you have to follow the advice. So if the defense can make out those elements, I would think they'd be able to present the defense and it might have a shot of winning. So Sol Cromwell might not be saints, but as we covered last time in episode one, SPF isn't exactly facing a trial over FTX's collapse. He's charged with a lot of things that led up to FTX's collapse. Arguably, what's alleged to have happened post -collapse matters more for FTX's victims. And if you ask them, the reviews are mixed on exactly what's played out thus far. If I'm going to judge Sullivan and Cromwell and John J. Wray from my purview of being someone who's seen these things in bankruptcy, I would give them a very low grade because you can say, oh, this is crypto, it's difficult, but it's not that difficult. And sometimes the devil you know is better than the one you don't. I will say that these debtors are extremely bad in my professional experience. That was Mr. Purple, a pseudonymous crypto investor who has experience following bankruptcy proceedings. For former FTX customers like him, Sam's spat with Sol Cromwell matters very little, as long as the firm can help achieve a meaningful recovery of their funds. And despite the fact that legal fees are stacking up, the bidding market for FTX customer claims is showing a growing hope they might not be stuck with pennies on the dollar. Another way to frame it is, you know, there's a claims market for FTX claims, trade claims, trade actively. There's a little niche of traditional finance that all they do is go around to different bankruptcies in all industries and they buy claims. This is this is a, you know, a subsector of of investing. And this is a huge bankruptcy. So this has been a very big liquid market. Right. And the first, you know, we're a very big creditor in this. So, you know, I'm in active conversations in this claims market. First, first bid we saw was in Thanksgiving and it was like six cents. That was the first bid. Six cents on the dollar, six cents on the dollar. And now now it's like 40 cents. And so it's gone from six to 40 cents. So then I'm like, OK, well, that feels quite good. Yeah. And OK, these guys are charging a load of money for that, but they have taken us from six cents to 40 cents. With both FTX's bankruptcy case and SPF's criminal case unfolding in real time, one may very well impact the other. We filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the CFTC to share the report. Sam says Solkrom filed to support that FTX's structure was above board. The agency denied our request, saying it's unable to share documents that, quote, could interfere with the conduct of federal agency law enforcement activities. And of course, as long as Solkrom selected John Ray is running the show at FTX, it's unexpected anything comes out to support SPF's case. FTX, too, didn't get back for comment. So unless SPF has direct evidence of lawyers being aware of FTX's shaky financials and helping for years to cover it up, it's hard to judge SPF's advice of counsel defense or the idea that he thought he was in the clear leading up to the collapse just because his lawyers said it was fine. As Litt said, that sounds more like an excuse than a defense. As a community owned Web3 media outlet, Coinage will be breaking down everything we've learned together through this series and curating still unanswered questions at Coinage .Media. I'm Zach Guzman. This was the second part of Coinage's investigative series covering SPF's defense. Stay tuned for episode three, where we'll explore another pillar. Of SPF's defense. You've been listening to the SPF Defense on the Coindesk Podcast Network. Follow the Coindesk Podcast Network to get all the Coindesk shows in one place and head over to Coindesk .com for all the Sam Bankman freed coverage. Thanks for listening.
Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
A highlight from 1406: Bitcoin Will Hit $4 Million, Rising 100x - Peter Thiel
"In today's show, we'll be discussing Bitcoin Bollinger Bands hitting a key zone as Bitcoin price fights for $27 ,000. In breaking news just in, Bitcoin hash rate hits a new all -time high. Let's go. And quoting Stacey Herbert, Bitcoin is pumping on the news of President Bukele's speech to the UN tonight. Can't wait. We'll also be discussing Bitcoin Adoption Fund launched by Japan's $500 billion Nomura Bank. That's right. The Bitcoin Adoption Fund will have long -only exposure to Bitcoin and be available to institutional investors. We'll also be sharing Sam Bankman, Fried's father, dragged his mother into an FTX US salary dispute. You can't make this stuff up, folks. Also in today's show, Bitcoin gearing up for a post -having parabola, according to crypto analysts. I'll be sharing his very bullish all -time high target. We'll also be discussing crypto asset market cap should explode 5 to 10x during the next bull cycle, according to investor Raoul Pal. I'll also be sharing Peter Thiel's $4 million Bitcoin price prediction, and we'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market. All this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good crypto fam? This is first and foremost, a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at cryptonewsalerts .net. Again, that's cryptonewsalerts .net. Welcome everyone just joining us. This is pod episode number 1406. I'm your host JV. And today is September 19th, 2023. We have lots to cover as usual. Massive shout out to everyone today in the live chat. Please let me know where you're tuning in from. And at the end of the show, I'm going to be reading everyone's comments out loud. Let's kick off today's show with our market watch as we do each and every day, the entire crypto market back in the green with Bitcoin back above $27 ,100 and checking out coinmarketcap .com, the current crypto market cap on the climb at $1 .08 trillion with roughly $27 billion in volume for the past 24 hours, Bitcoin dominance at 49 .2 % and the Ether dominance at 18 .4%. And checking out the top 100 crypto gainers of the past 24 hours, we have TonCoin leading the pack up 5%, trading at $2 .57, followed by GMX up about 5%, trading just under 36 bucks, followed by Conflux up 4%, trading at $0 .12. And checking out the top 100 crypto gainers of the past week, virtually 95 out of the top 100 cryptos are in the green. Some of the top gainers include GMX, GRT, as well as CRV and NEO. And checking out the crypto greed and fear index, we're currently rated at 46 in fear, same as 37 in fear. So there you have it. How many of you are pretty stoked for this most recent pump? And how many of you agree with Stacey Herbert that this pump is due to Bukele's speech scheduled for this evening? Let me know, fam. And now let's dive into today's Bitcoin technical analysis. Check out the charts and what's popping with the king crypto. Bitcoin could see fresh upside volatility as the price action and the strength revisits a key level according to a classic metric. In a new post, John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, says Bitcoin was positioned for a breakout decision. That's right. After hitting new September highs the day prior, Bitcoin has been challenging resistance levels out of reach since mid -August, according to data from Cointelegraph and TradingView. Now for Bollinger, the signs for Bitcoin are encouraging. Bollinger Bands use a standard deviation around the simple moving average to determine both the likely price ranges and volatility. And as Michael Saylor once said, volatility equals life force. Now, currently Bitcoin is putting in daily candles that touch the upper band. And when this happens, it can signal an imminent reversal back to the center band, or conversely, an inbound fit of upside volatility. Now narrow Bollinger Bands seen on Bitcoin recently lend weight to hopes that the latter scenario will now play out, quitting him here. And then there is the first tag of the upper Bollinger Band. After the new set of controlling bars were established at the lower band, he commented alongside this chart, the question is now, can we walk up to the upper band or is it too early to answer? What are your thoughts, chat? Let me know in the comments below. Now Bollinger characterizes the current mood among seasoned Bitcoin traders and analysts on the short -term timeframes. Despite the strength seen this week, caution abounds as various trend lines previously acting as support remain above the spot price. Now discussing the situation, we had on -chain monitoring resource, material indicators share the following. We have heavy technical resistance overhead at the key moving averages and support at the lower low. It is quite possible that we round trip the range. And with any luck, we'll see a legit test of the RS levels that will give us some clarity on where Bitcoin goes from here before the end of the week. And they also shared here in update number two, as noted earlier, it appears the Bitcoin bulls are gaining some momentum, but things are not always as they seem and goes on to share that sometime after last night's candle and close open, we've seen a new trend precognition signal develop on the daily chart and it seems to be bullish. I mean, we are breaking out. We are above 27 ,000. So let's freaking go. And also more strong foundation on the technicals. You can see Bitcoin hits yet another all -time high, which virtually means the network has never been this strong and this secure. Now I'm pretty stoked to tune into President Bukele's speech to the UN this evening. What do you think he has to share besides? I told you so. Let me know, fam. And again, welcome to everyone just joining us for the live show. Lots to continue to cover. So let's continue breaking it down. Next, let's discuss this adoption fund, which is a pretty big deal coming out of Japan. Let's go check this out. Japan's largest investment bank, Numura's digital asset subsidiary, Laser Digital Asset Management, launched the Bitcoin adoption fund specifically for the institutional investors. Bring it. The official announcement noted the Bitcoin -based fund will be the first in a range of digital adoption investment solutions that the firm plans to introduce. Now Numura is a Japanese financial giant with over $500 billion worth of assets, which basically that's half a trillion, baby, offers brokerage services to leading institutional investors. The Bitcoin fund launched by its digital asset arm will now offer investors direct exposure to BTC. The Laser Digital Bitcoin Adoption Fund offers long key exposure to Bitcoin. The financial giant has chosen Kamanu as its regulated custody partner. The Bitcoin fund is a portion of Laser Digital Fund's segregated portfolio company that has been registered as a mutual fund in accordance with the Cayman Islands regulatory authority. Now, Laser Digital Asset Management head Sebastian said the Bitcoin is one of the enablers of this long -lasting transformational change and long -term exposure to Bitcoin offers a solution for the investors to capture this macro trend. Now, the Bitcoin adoption fund might be the first of its kind launched by Numura and the digital asset arm, but the Japanese investment banking giant has been investing in the digital asset ecosystem for quite some time already. In fact, September of last year, the firm launched its digital asset venture capital arm to stay at the forefront of digital innovation. And also won Dubai's virtual asset regulatory authority license to operate in the country. The long -only Bitcoin adoption fund for investors in Japan comes amid a growing discussion around Bitcoin -based investment products from regulated and mainstream financial giants. The United States SEC approved two Bitcoin ETFs, even though there is a delayed decision specifically on the spot. Bitcoin ETFs. What's up with that, Mr. Gensler? Just saying. And apart from the US, Canada and focused investment products over the past couple of years. So there you have it, mass adoption, let's freaking go, especially on the institutional level. How many of you are in Japan? I know we have some in our audience out there. Let me know. And have you ever heard of this company before? Any plans in investing through them? Let me know how you guys feel. And now let's break down the latest. It gets more surprising and shocking every day with what all is going on with Bankman -Fried and FTX. Now his parents are involved. His parents are being sued by FTX. And it's just a nightmare of a mess, to say the least. So let's break down this latest story regarding SBF. Now, Joseph Bankman, the father of the former FTX CEO, Sam Bankman -Fried, complained to his son about the salary he was receiving during his employment at FTX US, turning the issue into a family matter. In a September 18 filing with the US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, FTX debtors filed a complaint against Bankman and Barbara Fried, alleging that SBF's parents misappropriated millions of dollars through their involvement in the exchange's business. And according to the court documents, Bankman's contract with FTX US should have provided a $200 ,000 annual salary following a leave of absence from the Stanford Law School in December 2021. However, Bankman seemed to express ignorance about the terms of the contract, claiming to both FTX US and his son that he was expecting a $1 million annual salary. What about all that property in the Bahamas, fam? What about all that? Hundreds of millions worth of properties? Just wanted to throw that out there. The complaint states that Bankman was putting Barbara on this, suggesting that SBF's mother may have been able to persuade her son to follow through with the salary change. Things get even more interesting. So according to the complaint, Bankman's influence paid off, with SBF later providing his parents $10 million from Alameda Research. Can you talk about commingling? A 16 .4 million property in the Bahamas, funded by FTX Trading, the ability to expense roughly $90 ,000 to FTX Trading on the island nation in the Bahamas, and options to purchase company stock. Now, when reached out to the legal team representing Bankman and Fried, but did not receive a response at the time, unfortunately, the legal action brought by the debtors was the latest in the bankruptcy case involving FTX and many of its subsidiaries filed in November of last year. Bankman Fried also faces 12 criminal charges to be spread across two trials, starting in October of 2023, which is right around the corner, fam, and March of 2024, right before the halving, scheduled for April of next year. And since the federal judge revoked his bail in August, Bankman Fried has been largely confined to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. Where's Brooklyn at? Before the start of his October trial, then on September 19th, a three -judge panel heard an appeal from SPF's legal team requesting the former FTX CEO to be released from jail in order to prepare for the trial, citing the lack of internet access and first amendment issues. All I got to say is this, I mean, how many people realistically have access to the internet in jail? Why should he? Million dollar question right there. But what are your thoughts, fam? How do you think this is likely to play out? And do you think that Bankman Fried's parents are just as guilty as SPF himself with the commingling and the fraud of going up north of $30 billion, making it the biggest scam in history that we're aware of? Hence why we call him Mini Madoff, because he made off with billions of dollars worth of investors' money, and Gary Gensler and the SEC was protecting him behind closed doors. So it's going to be very interesting to see how all this is likely to play out. Now let's discuss post halving. We all know there is a halving scheduled roughly six months out. We all know post halving, the price action is most likely going to reach a new all -time high and enter price discovery mode. Well, this analyst shares a very intriguing target. So let's break this down, shall we? And welcome to y 'all just joining us. Say hello in that live chat. Let me know where you're tuning in from. I stream live here seven days a week from Puerto Rico. Synonymous analyst Rhett Capital tells his followers on X that Bitcoin can rally above $80 per ,000 coin in the months following next month's event. For the halving, send it. Let's go. The Bitcoin halving cuts the Bitcoin miners' rewards in half, as we all know, expected to take place in April of next year. And while Rhett Capital is a long -term bull on Bitcoin, he notes that it is possible for Bitcoin to continue its downtrend before the halving, putting him here. Hang in there and make the most of any deeper downside in this pre halving period. You won't see the post halving parabola in the outlines here in this chart. It shows you in the yellow, the pre halving period, then in the pink, the post halving resistance, and then in the green, you can see the post halving parabola when we hit those new all -time highs. Now, Rhett notes that Bitcoin may repeat its 2019 bear market cycle when it traded within a triangle pattern before breaking out and starting off the bull market, as he shares here, if Bitcoin continues to form lower highs, could Bitcoin fill the CME, which is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap, at $20 ,000 later this year or in early 2024? So it makes a good point. There is currently a gap sitting at that $20 ,000 psychological level. And he continues, if so, the possible path could be consolidation to the apex of the black triangle before finally breaking out to close the halving. And you can see that triangle right here in this chart. Now, looking at the chart, he seemed to suggest that Bitcoin will confirm the triangle breakout in April of 2024, followed by a rally towards his long -term target. Now, let me know your thoughts, chat. How many of you agree that Bitcoin is likely to break out to a new all -time high, entering price discovery mode in 2024, the year of the halving? Let me know. And what are some of your targets? I'd also like to point out that the Stock the Flow model and Plan B, creator of that model, he suggests a $100 to $1 million range price for the King Crypto post halving. We also have some very other bullish predictions, which I cover on a daily basis here on the channel. But I'd love to know your personal prediction. I think we reached the cycle peak personally sometime in 2025, but I think 2024, we enter that price discovery mode. But I'd love to know your thoughts and your opinions in the comments right down below. And now let's break down our next story of the day and discuss the latest from the macro guru, Raoul Pal, who is suggesting that the Bitcoin market cap and crypto market cap as a whole does something between 5 and 10x for this upcoming bull cycle. Now, you do the math. We have a crypto market cap right now. I'm going to ballpark it at a trillion. We have a Bitcoin market cap. I'm going to ballpark it at a half a trillion, which is 500 billion. So hypothetically, if we were to 10x Bitcoin in and of itself, we're talking about a 5 trillion dollar Bitcoin market cap, which would be half the current market cap of gold. Now, with the entire crypto market cap, we can potentially hit 10 trillion. Now, also note, back in November of 2021, when we hit that all time high of 69 ,000 in November of last year, the total crypto market cap was just north of that 3 trillion dollar market cap. So he's so let's break this down and shout out to Raoul Pal. Here we go. Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal says the next bull cycle can bring an explosion in the market cap of all of the digital assets. That's right. In a new interview with Altcoin Daily, the macro expert says he expects a huge increase in the adoption of digital assets, and that can cause the total market cap of crypto to skyrocket as much as 900 % from its current value during the next bull market. Quoting the analysts here, obviously, I think we'll go well through new all time highs. I think the whole ecosystem of crypto will go from 425 million users where we're at today. And I think at the end of this cycle, there'll be a billion users by that kind of use cases in which we have talked about. And let's not forget, we have got central bank digital currencies that are known as CBDCs and stable coins. There is a lot going on still. So if this entire space is going to grow 2 .5 X in the number of users, well, the market cap of the entire space is five or 10 X. Send it. Let's go. Pal also says he is closely watching development of layer two Altcoin projects for new use cases, which could boost the value of their individual market cap, quitting him again. And then let's see how people value layer twos in this. We don't really know how layer twos accrue much value. Do we have to have a massive amount of transactions in which case then you need stuff like Ticketmaster with millions and millions and millions of transactions to drive value to those chains because they batched them and batched them down to Ethereum. So there you have it. And to watch this interview, he did Raul Pal, the macro guru with Altcoin Daily entitled best cryptocurrency investing strategy into 2024. Check the show notes, blow the video in the description and let me know your thoughts on his personal prediction. Do you feel post having that the market cap for the entire crypto market can likely 10 X from the current valuation along with Bitcoin surging 10 X to roughly a five trillion market cap? And hypothetically, if the macro guru is correct, where do you think that would likely take the Bitcoin price? Well, let's run some hypothetical math. Bitcoin was the 10 X from the current price action of 27 ,000. Well, that's $270 ,000 per coin. Take that. And as we all know, Bitcoin rises like that, the entire crypto market cap would go along for the ride, including the altcoin. So please let me know in the chat, fam, which altcoins, if any, are you most bullish on in the crypto market? And what are your thoughts surrounding Raul Pal being so bullish on Solana? A few months back, I read in an interview he shared that 80 % or more of his portfolio was specifically in an altcoin called Solana. So I'd love to know your thoughts. Obviously, he has a high risk tolerance as I look at that particular cryptocurrency to be very risky, especially with all that went in with the venture capitalists and SPF and FTX exchange pumping that particular all. So I'd love to know how you feel regarding all of that. And with that being shared, fam, now let's discuss Peter Thiel and his $4 million price prediction, as well as rumor has it, and I'll be covering this as well, that he dumps most of his Bitcoin position at the top of the market practically 30 days before the crash. So let's break this down because Peter Thiel was actually one of the keynote speakers at the Miami Conference for Bitcoin. And here's what he had to share as I transcribed his speech, and then we'll discuss him reportedly making $1 .8 billion cashing out on his eight -year bet around the time he was touting these all -time high predictions. So here we go. He says, the enemy's list is a list of people who I think are stopping Bitcoin. He says there is a lot of them. They tend to have nameless, faceless bureaucratic perspectives, which of course is one of the ways they hide. He goes on to share, we are going to try to expose them and realize that this is sort of what we have to fight for Bitcoin to go up, 10x or 100x from here. Now, just FYI, to give you some perspective, at the time he made this prediction on stage at the Bitcoin Miami Conference, Bitcoin was trading at roughly $43 ,000 per coin. So you run the math. 43 ,000 times 100x is over $4 million per Bitcoin. So you know that? Let's continue with what he had to share. The central banks are going bankrupt. We are at the end of the fiat money regime. How many of you agree with that statement? I agree there 100%. The first person on the list is Berkshire Hathaway CEO, Warren Buffett. Thiel put up a picture of Buffett with two of his most famous quotes about Bitcoin. One was rat poison and the other, I don't own any and I never will. I also like to point out now since then, Warren Buffett has much indirect exposure to Bitcoin through Bitcoin mining stock companies and etc. So go figure. If you can't beat them, join them, right? And he goes on. He opined, I think the direct in it. Yeah, and I say also Charlie Munger goes along with him. Now, feel further noted that Buffett has a bias and makes him long on fiat money system and money managers who follow the Berkshire Hathaway executives advice will pretend it's complicated to invest into Bitcoin. I think we call that FUD. Fear, uncertainty and doubt. Now expect nothing less from one of the wealthiest people in the fiat money matrix Ponzi scheme. You know what I mean? So just saying. The next person on the list of Bitcoin's enemies is the one and only JP Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon, or as Max Kaiser calls him, Jamie the tapeworm. They'll put diamonds picture up with the following quote. I don't call them crypto currencies. I call them crypto tokens because currencies have rules of law behind them, central banks and tax with authorities. Now you guys already know how I feel personally about JP Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon. So I won't go any deeper there. But anyways, we know he's an enemy of Bitcoin and always has been. The next picture he put up was of the BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink, with the following quote. I see huge opportunities in a digitized crypto blockchain related currency, and that's where I think it is going to go. Now just FYI, Larry Fink is the CEO of the largest asset management firm in the entire world, which owns a large share in virtually all the companies in the S &P 500, and that is BlackRock. They currently have over $10 trillion in assets under management. And for a long time, he was spreading FUD regarding Bitcoin. But guess what? Like I mentioned earlier, if you can't beat them, join them because they just most recently, a few months ago, they submitted their application for a spot Bitcoin ETF, which ultimately means they're going to be introducing this to the institutions which have trillions upon trillions of dollars as there's currently north of $700 trillion in total addressable market, and they want their piece of the Bitcoin pie. So he goes on to share, the PayPal co -founder added that Fink's quote is somewhat representative of the whole genre of Bitcoin attacks that need further context, stating that pro -blockchain is an anti -Bitcoin term, very typically. Feel then brought up the environmental, social, and governance, ESG standards, elaborating the following, the label they have come up with, and perhaps the real enemy is ESG. I think that ESG is just a hate factory. Also like to throw out there, Elon Musk, he stopped taking Bitcoin payments for Tesla, and he says it's because of the FUD regarding this ESG, and we all know it's not more than FUD, and it's already been proven that Bitcoin is more than 50 % clean energy. So the million dollar question, when will the world's supposedly wealthiest man, Elon Musk, when will he start accepting Bitcoin payments again for Tesla? Isn't that a great question, and wouldn't you love to know the answer to that? Maybe you should ask Elon and tag him on X and see what he says. Anyways, feel stressed. You can always ask the question, what's the difference between ESG and the CCP, the Chinese Communist Party? Well, when you think ESG, you should be thinking of CCP per H. Now, he also goes on to share, it is the finance gentocracy that runs the country through whatever silly virtue signaling or hate factory to them, just like ESG, the billionaire concluded. This is what I would call and what you have to think of as a revolutionary youth movement, and we have to just go out from this conference and take over the world. So there you have it, fam. What are your thoughts surrounding Peter Thiel's prediction that we are likely to 100X, and along with his enemies list, as it seems, a lot of the enemies have come around and now have direct exposure to BTC, but it doesn't stop there because around that time he was making this $4 million Bitcoin price prediction. He allegedly dumped most of his position cashing out and with over a billion dollars in profits for his fund. So let's also break this down as this is also very relevant. How many of you were able to watch the speech he gave at that Bitcoin conference? It was epic, to say the least. I recall it now. So here we go. Check it out. Peter Thiel's venture capital firm reportedly made $1 .8 billion closing out its crypto positions around the time when he was an early Bitcoin bull, still predicting the token's price to surge by 100X. And again, from 43 ,000 price action, 100X means over 4 million. Founders Fund had cashed out almost all of its bets on digital assets by March of 2022, according to the Financial Times report that cited people familiar with the matter. But Thiel was still backing Bitcoin, obviously, when he spoke at the crypto conference in Miami the following month. He went on to share where at the end of the fiat money regime, he said, adding that the token's price could increase 100 fold from its level at the time, which was reported at $44 ,000 per coin. That prediction was proven false and as rising interest rates and failures, the high profile firms like Celsius Network, Three Arrows Capital, FTX, Terra Luna dragged the crypto sector into the prolonged bearish winter. Now Bitcoin plummeted by over 60 % in 2022 and was trading at under 17 ,000 by the end of the year. And I believe the bottom currently for the cycle is 15 ,700. How many of you feel that that bottom is in? Let me know, chat. Founders Fund first started pouring money into crypto all the way back in 2014, when Bitcoin was only trading at roughly $750 per coin. So by the time Bitcoin reached its all time high in November of 2021, it had surged 8 ,500 % from that particular level. Not too shabby for a seven year run, wouldn't you say? Now Thiel has a long track record as one of Silicon Valley's most prominent tech investors. He took early stakes in startups, which include Facebook, Elon Musk's SpaceX, and ride hailing app Lyft, and even co -founded PayPal back in 1998. Thiel is also a high profile supporter of the Republican Party and continued to voice his support for Donald Trump since the former president left office in January of 2021. The fund held around two thirds of his portfolio in Bitcoin at one time, but now not has significant exposure to crypto according to FT's sources. So there you have it. Fam, what are your thoughts surrounding his prediction and him cashing out at around that time he was making those all time high predictions of 100X? Let me know, fam. And don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts .net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. HODL.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Hints of Green Shoots After the Crypto Winter With Host Noelle Acheson
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Tuesday, September 19th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Cryptos Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about hints of green shoots after the crypto winter, going by recent announcements of crypto funds. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto volatility certainly does seem to be coming back, judging from price moves over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, we talked about how prices were rising. Well, around about midday Eastern time yesterday after we recorded, they fell sharply, with Bitcoin dropping almost 1 .7 % in half an hour. Early today, they rapidly climbed, with Bitcoin again breaking through $27 ,000. Then there was another sharp drop and another climb. And well, you get the picture. At 10 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was trading at $26 ,975, down just over 1 % over the past 24 hours. Ether was trading at $1 ,638, down 1 .2%. Bitcoin does seem to be leading the market here. Last week, I talked about Bitcoin dominance, which is Bitcoin's percentage of the total crypto market cap. Another metric worth following to gauge market sentiment is the ratio of Bitcoin and Ether prices. Simply, Bitcoin's price divided by Ether's price. When it is rising, Bitcoin is outperforming. And when it is falling, Ether is outperforming. Over the past month, this ratio has risen by more than 6%. In traditional markets, investors around the world are braced for a slew of central bank rates decisions this week. The announcements kick off with the U .S. Federal Reserve's decision tomorrow. And throughout the week, we will get announcements from 10 more, concluding with Japan on Friday. In the U .S., as we mentioned yesterday, expectations are for a pause. Tomorrow, we also get updated economic projections in which we could see the FOMC Committee signal even higher interest rate expectations and a pushing out on the calendar of rate cuts. The inflation data we saw last week showed that core inflation is still, at 4 .3 % year -on -year, more than double the Fed's target of 2%. And headline inflation for August showed a higher -than -expected uptick while the latest jobless claims continue to show employment strength. There is little reason for the Federal Reserve to even hint that rate cuts might be coming soon. Concerns about some tough language from the Fed tomorrow, as well as the impact of rising oil, have pushed U .S. stock indices lower in trading so far today, with the S &P 500 down almost 0 .4%, the Nasdaq down almost 0 .7%, and the Dow Jones down almost 0 .3%. Over in Europe, the FTSE 100 is up slightly, as traders await a U .K. inflation print tomorrow. This is expected to show an uptick to back above 7 % year -on -year, a figure which could influence the Bank of England's rates decision on Thursday. Eurozone indices also appear to be in a wait -and -see mode, with the German DAX down less than 0 .2 % and the Euro Stoxx 600 flat in trading so far today. In Asia, Japan was down almost 0 .9%, as investors sold chip stocks after Taiwan's TSNC, the world's largest chip manufacturer, signaled slowing demand. In China, the Shanghai Composite was more or less flat today, as traders await a decision from the central bank on the benchmark loan prime rate. At the monthly fixing tomorrow, the central bank is expected to leave the rate unchanged, as economic stabilization and a weakening yuan are easing the pressure to relax monetary policy. The Hang Seng index was feeling more buoyant today, rising almost 0 .4%. The relief may be the result of good debt restructuring news from the troubled Chinese real estate sector. In commodities, the Brent crude benchmark continues its climb, almost reaching $96 per barrel earlier this morning. It has since retraced, but is still up over 1 % over the past 24 hours, currently trading at around $95 .40 per barrel. The rise continues to be driven more by supply constraints than by strong demand. On top of the production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, we now have lower production likely in the US. Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration said that output from the top US shale -producing regions is on track to fall for the third consecutive month in October to its lowest level since May. Gold continued to inch higher, up over 0 .6 % to trade at $1 ,935 per ounce. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at hints of a new season for crypto funds. Meet the all -new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned, modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Not investment advice. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated. The unpredictable nature of the crypto assets market can lead to loss of funds and profits, maybe subject to capital gains tax. Welcome back. After a long, empty crypto winter, it looks like activity in crypto funds is finally picking up. Yesterday, Coindesk reported that blockchain capital has raised $580 million for two new crypto funds, one for early -stage companies and protocols, and another for late -stage investments from Series B onward. This is notable, given that most of blockchain capital's investors are traditional institutions such as university endowments, private foundations, financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds and US pension plans. While they may not be ready to buy crypto assets directly, institutions are investing in the industry. Also this morning, we heard that the digital assets subsidiary of Nomura, Japan's largest investment bank and brokerage group, is launching an investment vehicle for institutions called the Bitcoin Adoption Fund. The fund offers long -only exposure to Bitcoin, with custody handled by Comainu, which was founded in 2018 by Nomura in partnership with crypto companies Ledger and CoinShares. Those aren't the only significant signs of increased activity we've had over the past week. We also heard that Electric Capital is aiming to raise $300 million for a new fund, Cassie Kornbank, the largest traditional bank in Thailand, has created a $100 million fund to invest in Web3 and AI startups, crypto platform BitGet has established a $100 million fund to invest in the trading ecosystem, and investment firm Reverie has launched a $20 million crypto venture fund. All this over the past seven days. Green shoots, maybe? That's it for today's show. You can reach us at podcasts at coindesk .com. Do also please send us questions you'd like us to address on the Spotify Q &A. Follow us. And if you like the show, please leave us a five star rating on whatever platform you're listening to us on. Markets Daily is produced and edited by Michelle Musso, with executive production by Jared Schwartz. I'm Noelle Acheson for Coindesk. We're back tomorrow with more market news and insights.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Hints of Green Shoots After the Crypto Winter With Host Noelle Acheson
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Tuesday, September 19th, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. My name is Noelle Acheson, CoinDesk collaborator and author of the Cryptos Macro Now newsletter on Substack. On today's show, we're talking about hints of green shoots after the crypto winter, going by recent announcements of crypto funds. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. Now, a markets roundup. Crypto volatility certainly does seem to be coming back, judging from price moves over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, we talked about how prices were rising. Well, around about midday Eastern time yesterday after we recorded, they fell sharply, with Bitcoin dropping almost 1 .7 % in half an hour. Early today, they rapidly climbed, with Bitcoin again breaking through $27 ,000. Then there was another sharp drop and another climb. And well, you get the picture. At 10 a .m. Eastern time today, Bitcoin was trading at $26 ,975, down just over 1 % over the past 24 hours. Ether was trading at $1 ,638, down 1 .2%. Bitcoin does seem to be leading the market here. Last week, I talked about Bitcoin dominance, which is Bitcoin's percentage of the total crypto market cap. Another metric worth following to gauge market sentiment is the ratio of Bitcoin and Ether prices. Simply, Bitcoin's price divided by Ether's price. When it is rising, Bitcoin is outperforming. And when it is falling, Ether is outperforming. Over the past month, this ratio has risen by more than 6%. In traditional markets, investors around the world are braced for a slew of central bank rates decisions this week. The announcements kick off with the U .S. Federal Reserve's decision tomorrow. And throughout the week, we will get announcements from 10 more, concluding with Japan on Friday. In the U .S., as we mentioned yesterday, expectations are for a pause. Tomorrow, we also get updated economic projections in which we could see the FOMC Committee signal even higher interest rate expectations and a pushing out on the calendar of rate cuts. The inflation data we saw last week showed that core inflation is still, at 4 .3 % year -on -year, more than double the Fed's target of 2%. And headline inflation for August showed a higher -than -expected uptick while the latest jobless claims continue to show employment strength. There is little reason for the Federal Reserve to even hint that rate cuts might be coming soon. Concerns about some tough language from the Fed tomorrow, as well as the impact of rising oil, have pushed U .S. stock indices lower in trading so far today, with the S &P 500 down almost 0 .4%, the Nasdaq down almost 0 .7%, and the Dow Jones down almost 0 .3%. Over in Europe, the FTSE 100 is up slightly, as traders await a U .K. inflation print tomorrow. This is expected to show an uptick to back above 7 % year -on -year, a figure which could influence the Bank of England's rates decision on Thursday. Eurozone indices also appear to be in a wait -and -see mode, with the German DAX down less than 0 .2 % and the Euro Stoxx 600 flat in trading so far today. In Asia, Japan was down almost 0 .9%, as investors sold chip stocks after Taiwan's TSNC, the world's largest chip manufacturer, signaled slowing demand. In China, the Shanghai Composite was more or less flat today, as traders await a decision from the central bank on the benchmark loan prime rate. At the monthly fixing tomorrow, the central bank is expected to leave the rate unchanged, as economic stabilization and a weakening yuan are easing the pressure to relax monetary policy. The Hang Seng index was feeling more buoyant today, rising almost 0 .4%. The relief may be the result of good debt restructuring news from the troubled Chinese real estate sector. In commodities, the Brent crude benchmark continues its climb, almost reaching $96 per barrel earlier this morning. It has since retraced, but is still up over 1 % over the past 24 hours, currently trading at around $95 .40 per barrel. The rise continues to be driven more by supply constraints than by strong demand. On top of the production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, we now have lower production likely in the US. Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration said that output from the top US shale -producing regions is on track to fall for the third consecutive month in October to its lowest level since May. Gold continued to inch higher, up over 0 .6 % to trade at $1 ,935 per ounce. Stay tuned. After the break, we'll take a look at hints of a new season for crypto funds. Meet the all -new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned, modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Not investment advice. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated. The unpredictable nature of the crypto assets market can lead to loss of funds and profits, maybe subject to capital gains tax. Welcome back. After a long, empty crypto winter, it looks like activity in crypto funds is finally picking up. Yesterday, Coindesk reported that blockchain capital has raised $580 million for two new crypto funds, one for early -stage companies and protocols, and another for late -stage investments from Series B onward. This is notable, given that most of blockchain capital's investors are traditional institutions such as university endowments, private foundations, financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds and US pension plans. While they may not be ready to buy crypto assets directly, institutions are investing in the industry. Also this morning, we heard that the digital assets subsidiary of Nomura, Japan's largest investment bank and brokerage group, is launching an investment vehicle for institutions called the Bitcoin Adoption Fund. The fund offers long -only exposure to Bitcoin, with custody handled by Comainu, which was founded in 2018 by Nomura in partnership with crypto companies Ledger and CoinShares. Those aren't the only significant signs of increased activity we've had over the past week. We also heard that Electric Capital is aiming to raise $300 million for a new fund, Cassie Kornbank, the largest traditional bank in Thailand, has created a $100 million fund to invest in Web3 and AI startups, crypto platform BitGet has established a $100 million fund to invest in the trading ecosystem, and investment firm Reverie has launched a $20 million crypto venture fund. All this over the past seven days. Green shoots, maybe? That's it for today's show. You can reach us at podcasts at coindesk .com. Do also please send us questions you'd like us to address on the Spotify Q &A. Follow us. And if you like the show, please leave us a five star rating on whatever platform you're listening to us on. Markets Daily is produced and edited by Michelle Musso, with executive production by Jared Schwartz. I'm Noelle Acheson for Coindesk. We're back tomorrow with more market news and insights.
Crypto Banter
A highlight from "DO NOT Buy Bitcoin Now! Here's WHY..." | Gareth Soloway
"I'm back and we're one day before the FOMC Bitcoin still at 27 ,175 now Gareth says Gareth Soloway He says that Bitcoin can get back to $30 ,000 But then he also says that even though Bitcoin can get back to 30 ,000. He wouldn't actually buy it. Listen to this Now interestingly enough, let's talk about how high can price rally right? So, I mean, let's let's talk about it So if you're someone who's saying wow, do I buy Bitcoin now? Honestly the answer is no now But he does think you can go back to to $30 ,000 So listen, what we're gonna do is we're gonna get Gareth on the show a bit later on He's gonna talk to us about what he meant when he said he thinks Bitcoin can go back to 30 ,000 level But he wouldn't actually be buying Bitcoin right now and that's ahead of the FOMC now. Remember it's a big FOMC why because we haven't heard from Jerome Powell since the 25th and 26th of July, so we haven't heard anything from Jerome Powell since the 25th and 26th of July and Remember that since the 21st and 26th of July we've had two very big inflation readings So the big question is what is Jerome Powell going to do tomorrow? Is he going to engineer a soft landing that is one thing that he could be doing or or or is he going to Fly the plane like that plane that got lost I think what we need to do is we need to spend some time talking about this because honestly Honestly, honestly, honestly I Mean, how can anyone? Lose an 80 million dollar plane even the Biden administration. Like how can you lose an 80 million dollar plane? No one can lose an 80 million dollar plane. Not even the Biden administration So this we've got a lot to talk about today. We're also gonna talk about finance We're gonna talk about finance in the SEC. They did go to court yesterday There was a little bit of FUD that came out of the court case yesterday Usually as you know, I don't really pay attention to the finance FUD But this time it's coming from the same people that warned me about Celsius and they were right So I took the side of Celsius and they were right So as I said, I don't usually pay attention to finance FUD because I think it's like usually just bat And I think there's too much finance FUD But I do think we need to talk about what came out of the hearing yesterday. So listen, I'm back We've got a huge show today one day before the FOMC. Let's go guys I Mean we have to laugh we have to laugh Not only did they lose a plane But then like to make matters worse they want us to help them Find the plane now. I mean, this is a true story They lost an 80 million dollar plane and they want us to help them find a plane That's the type of discussion that I usually have with James like I lost the soundboard James. Where's the soundboard? I lost it on the way to work. Anyway, we'll talk we'll talk about the plane later. There's a lot to talk about Listen guys, I'm back. I'm back in the studio. We've got a lot to discuss today Got a big show ahead of the the FOMC Also, I want to talk to a little bit about Asia I want to talk to you about Binance I want to talk to you about altcoins because we are getting bounces in the altcoins as you can see right here on the bubbles But it seems like it's stuff going up one day and down the next day Which means that there's no new capital coming in we know that and what that also means is that we're getting Asset money rotation between between one place or another and then also as a city later on gathers Garrett's coming on the show So we've got a lot to talk about we're a lot we're gonna be here together But let's talk about remember if you haven't yet subscribed the channel help us because one of the things that I realized in Singapore Was the bigger our channel the bigger the guests we can get on the channel the more attention they pay their pay to us And so when you guys subscribe to this channel when you like this content And we get the content out there and you subscribe to the channel That helps the channel grow that helps us bring more bigger guests onto the channel. That's why we need you I'll bring you the highest alpha per minute show in the world every single day and You will just like the content and then everything's fine. Everything works. It's a symbiotic relationship. Anyway, let's talk about Where we are right now Let's go to the charts what we can see when we look at the charts is that Bitcoin is above 27 ,200 one day before the FOMC meeting now, I heard rumors earlier That the reason why Bitcoin was actually rising is because the mount gox trustee may be forced to delay the distribution of the mount Bitcoin 2024 till that was actually written up by the blocks I heard the rumors much earlier today and then the block wrote something about it They're saying Bitcoin bounce may be due to mount gox delay rumors, but still targeting 22 ,000. That's a fan manager called QCP bitcoins price is largely due to rumors of delay that mount gox may drag their payments into 2024 that's actually exactly what I heard earlier today. So it could be that we may not be getting the mount gox Bitcoin hit in the market. Now you ask yourself. Why would that happen? So you very simply why would that would happen mount gox was hacked in 2014 this this this story took place in 2014 The liquidator like the FTX liquidator earns money on The longer this drags out the more the liquidator and it's almost like think about it like a lawyer Okay so the more this thing drags out the more money that the liquidator makes and it looks like the liquidator is going to continue to Pressure the side of the year now, let's go back to the charts because I want to show you something back on the chart So then if you remember but Kyle dupes said something very interesting. He said look when we get this death cross What will happen after the death crosses, but Bitcoin will go down But then Bitcoin will go up back to the price of where the death cross happened, which is twenty seven thousand seven hundred so so far Kyle's little I don't know if you want to call it a prediction is is actually playing out and playing out exactly like said Gary says we can actually go even to 30 ,000. I actually think that both of them are wrong I think that we may at some point soon this year this this month this year We will break that 30 ,000 everyone. I've been saying it for a while I don't know if you remember but I did say at the beginning of September when everybody was completely bearish about Bitcoin and everyone said oh September's gonna finish down because it finishes down every single September. I said no guys I think September's gonna finish up so far. I'm up five point five two percent So so far it feels to me like like like like I'm gonna look I'm gonna Get this but you must realize what's actually happening here James. What what's for lunch? Scacra doesn't talk but he's chewing here. I can hear the chewing going in my one ear and out and out over there Anyway, what we are seeing here is you need to look at the open interest on Bitcoin and what you realize is that the open? interest is just Completely tracking the price which means that price goes up open interest goes up price goes down open interest goes down That's what's going on here, which means it's just short term Ups and downs so to speak that are happening in the market and it's not real volume or real buying coming in So we still I'm still not convinced that this is the pump that's gonna take us over 30 ,000 But I am convinced that bitcoins gonna go north of 30 ,000 end of September Maybe even early October and I think shaldino shares the same the same sentiment as me because he's just opening lungs and lungs and Lungs and you should I think today you opened another long on the show. Did you guys did you guys watch Sheldon show today? scarecrows Scarecrows don't talk but the children open along yes or no scarecrows He opened us a line along. Okay, so say he did open a lot the guys got big big big kahunas I think the same thing was happening with alts when I look at the alt coins It looks like we're just getting a shift from one old coin to another old coin So yesterday roll, but was up today roll, but is down yesterday rune was up today rune is down and that's exactly what's happening There's no big moves. Let's just quickly check on the one hour time frame. No big moves. No big moves in all coins it's basically just a rotation of Many the good thing is that the fundamentals of Bitcoin and I said I don't say this likely but the fundamentals of Bitcoin have actually Never ever ever been stronger and what I mean when I say the fundamentals of Bitcoin have never been stronger So there's two parts of the fundamentals. The one part of the fundamental is the research So what does the research say? What are the fundamentals behind it? The other part of the fundamentals is something that is unique to Bitcoin and unique this asset class Which is the on -chain data because if you look at other asset classes, they don't really have on -chain data Bitcoin has on -chain data So, you know like when we say fundamentals we can actually just go to the chain and we can just say look Well, what is it? What does the chain say? What is the the data on chain say and here this is where it gets a little Bit exciting so it gets very exciting. The first thing is long -term The supply held by long -term holders up to the highest that it's ever been so you can see the percentage Supply that is held by long -term holds the Bitcoin never ever ever been higher that is Also evident here where you can see that 80 % of all Bitcoin have not moved in the last six months so what we're seeing here is long -term holders keep growing and then when they lot they hold they They hold for forever because it hasn't moved for more than six months What we also see is we see the short -term holders have been capitulated. They're out of the market. We don't see them anymore They were here. They they were good tourists and then we said bye -bye and they were just sending their money back to exchanges When I look at the unchain The unchain data right now and I said I don't say this lightly the unchain data right now looks the most positive that's ever been because the coins are sitting with the people who ain't gonna sell the Coins and when I say anchor solid coins, they holding the coins for for six months plus The sentiment is also very good. And I saw this tweet by Chris Paniski and he He shares the same sentiment that I shared in Asia He was struck by how incredible and what the buzz is that happened in a token 2049. You can see his his These guys are killing my ears Thanks guys. Thanks for thanks for destroying my eardrums. I used to have eardrums now they're gone Anyway, that's his version of what happened at token 2049, but he's been around for a while He says contrasting token 25 20 49 to the first bear market conference. I went to inside Bitcoin in April 2015 the worlds are completely different and that's true because Even though from a pricing point of view, we're in a bear market I'm gonna show you something very very very interesting about where we are in the market The other thing that's happening now, which we haven't seen in Bitcoin for for for a long time Since I got into Bitcoin people have been promising me that the institutions are coming into Bitcoin. It's always been the narrative It's like look we've got to prepare ourselves got to prepare us off Because you know what the institutions are coming in when the institutions come in The price of it coins gonna go to the moon and every time the institutions never came in They launched a Bitcoin futures and bang the the price collapsed So I've always been hearing since I got you That the institutions are coming into Bitcoin when the institutions come into Bitcoin They're gonna bring all the money with him But it's been this letdown because it like as much as I've been hearing about it The institutions just haven't come but they just didn't arrive now the institutions are undoubtedly undoubtedly undoubtedly here So we have got Citibank. They are now Unveiling their own Separate blockchain which is going to which which they're going to start piloting you got this is old news But you got the LSE looking to tokenize assets in the line the stock exchange As your as you will recall if you saw my video about token 2049 in Singapore I thought hey said big bull market he predicts and if you go watch that video see what he said But he basically how he breaks down why the bull market is gonna happen in 2024 he also breaks down that AI is gonna be the narrative that's gonna lead it and then he says, okay Well, then you need to you need to be buying file coin Then a German banking giant will be able to hold a number of crypto currencies for its clients So you can see what's going on here. You can see exactly what's going on Yeah, this industry is becoming more and more institutional Deutsche Bank one step closer to launching a digital asset custody service You've got Japanese banking giant Nomura launching a Bitcoin adoption fund for institutional investors You see what's going on here the institutionals the institutions are here are finally actually getting here but we are in a very very very unique time now because this is What Michael Saylor described when I interviewed Michael Saylor last time you'll remember it if you watch the Michael Saylor discussion This is what he said about where we are now about the unique time that we are now in In the cycle able to pick up the phone and call your broker and buy 50 million dollars worth of it Right. So we're at that stage where we know it's coming but We really haven't plugged Wall Street into the asset yet We're in this in between period which in my opinion is the best time to be it's like, you know the future No one else can act on it. If you if you have a crypto account with a crypto Exchange to buy Bitcoin right now So so you hear what he's saying he's saying if you we know they're coming they just it's like it's like it's like this Imagine a concert, you know, the concerts gonna start everyone's waiting at the door, but the gates aren't open yet You know when the gates open everyone's gonna come in and go to the car the concert you have the inside information But they can't act because the doors are still closed. That is where we are. Now. The institutions are coming in this morning I saw that blockchain capital Which is one of the original og funds in crypto, these are like, you know, these are two brothers original og og og funds in crypto raised 400 and say five hundred and eighty million dollars for two new funds now if you read where did they get their money from? most of the firm's limited partners are traditional institutional investors including University endowments So they've got five hundred and eighty dollars from all of these sovereign wealth funds and guys I mean if you were here in 2017 and you were here in 2018 and you were here in 2019 and notice it you look You know in next year or in two years time you're gonna get five hundred and eighty million dollars Given to two brothers in the United States Who have got a good track record and the money's gonna be given to them by institutional university By university endowment private foundations the writing's all over the world. All you have to do is You just have to Act because it's inevitable. It's completely completely completely inevitable And I know like a lot of you may may be sitting here and going yeah But you're not crypto is full of scams and you know, you know We spoke about keeping our customers happy and how every time we get the big names in crypto coming into our into our industry We destroy them, etc, etc You need to remember that every single technology goes through the cycle and I want to read you something which I saw earlier today which made me smile and and again affirm that I was in the right direction so Visa seemed like a disaster when it was first launched the kind of people who attack new things would have been all over it from From the Wikipedia article it says listen to it says they're talking about visa However, the program was riddled with problems as Williams who had never worked in a bank's loan department had been too earnest and trusting in His belief in the basic goodness of the bank's customers and he resigned in December 1959 22 % of the accounts were delinquent not the 4 % expected the police departments around the state were confronted by numerous incidents of of a brand new crime called credit card fraud Both politicians and journalists joined the general uproar against Bank of America and its new fangled credit card Especially when it was pointed out that the card holder agreement held customers liable for all charges even those resulting from fraud Bank of America officially lost eight point eight million dollars in on on the launch of Bank of America card But when the full cost of advertising and overheads were included the bank actually lost around 20 million dollars I mean if you change the word credit card there and you replaced it with the word blockchain you'd say hell them This is exactly what's going on here.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Fed funds rate. Let's listen. It could actually deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, as well as pause its QT as well. The argument is really about ongoing financial uncertainty potential flight of deposits still. Looming financial stability risks. In fact, the idea is that there is still so much uncertainty. He said lack of confidence that perhaps there's a need for the fed to actually cut rates and show it's backing up the markets, certainly not just with their lending facility. They've launched over the weekend, but another step that could make a difference. And I think this idea of halting quantitative tightening. Remember, you do quantitatively easing. You buy bonds when you want to put liquidity in the system. And when you sell them, you're taking liquidity out. Now is the time to keep the liquidity there. That's a very powerful and important part of what Nomura is talking about. And of course, you can see financial conditions have tightened very sharply and the idea could be well. Maybe we're not going to raise rates as much. Maybe we're going to pause. Maybe we could cut because we've got this added stimulus. Now, on the other side of it, BlackRock investment institute saying no, the fed should move. This is not 2008. We do not see a structured credit falling apart. It's not spreading the way it did then. In fact, it's treasury bonds that have changed in value that is what's bringing down someone like SVB. And that's a stable liquidity security. You don't have to worry about that. So they're arguing for the 25 basis point hike to go ahead as planned
CryptoNinjas
Nomuras Laser Digital invests in Infinity, an Ethereumbased money market protocol
"6 p.m. Wednesday, February 15th, 2023. No more as laser digital invests in infinity and Ethereum based money market protocol. Japan based banking giant Nomura announced today that its digital assets subsidiary, laser digital, has made a strategic investment in infinity and non custody interest rate protocol built on Ethereum infinity's wholesale exchange, the first of several planned infrastructures, provides inter exchange clearing, fixed, and floating rate markets, as well as enterprise grade risk management utilizing hybrid on chain of chain infrastructures. The post Nomura's laser digital invests in infinity and Ethereum based money market protocol appeared first on krypton ninjas.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Traders balancing the reopening of China, which appears to be a huge positive at the moment up against fears of recession for the U.S. and Europe this year. There's still plenty of room for optimism that Hong Kong and stocks and then Chinese stocks can rally JPMorgan Chase, Nomura, and Goldman Sachs, all argue that there is room for stocks to gain. Goldman strategists also see opportunities to play the theme beyond stocks. We have the MSCI Asia Pacific index, and the MSCI emerging markets index both entering a bull market showing gains of more than 20%. But we did have a couple of comments from fed officials that remind everyone that interest rates are going to stay high for some period of time. The S&P 500 tumbled from large gains in the day to finish down one tenth of 1%. And we have the NASDAQ finishing up 6 tenths of a percent while the Dow was down three tenths of a percent. Fast forward to Asia, the DK rallying 9 tenths of a percent. The ASX 200 down about three tenths of a percent and the cost be has moved into positive territory here with the gain of a couple of points. Dalyan won 32 O 9, the yield on the ten year treasury 3.54%. 43 minutes past the hour, it's time for sports. Let's get to Dan Schwartzman Sudan, a Welsh winger, calls it a career. Yeah, and that is primer really, really good one. Star Gareth Bale announced his retirement from football on social media at the age of 33 the winger played for Southampton Tottenham Real Madrid and LAFC of the MLS now bale finishes his whales as all time leader and appearances with a 111 in goals with 41. Meanwhile, French captain Hugo loris retiring from international football, leaving le BLEU as the all time leader in appearances with a 145. The Tottenham goalkeeper led France to a win at the 2018 World Cup, as well as the win at the 2021 Nations League. Bloomberg U.S. Bloomberg reports that Qatar sports investment is looking at the possibly buying a stake or making an outright purchase of either Manchester United Liverpool or Tottenham. Sources say that after what was considered a successful hosting of the World Cup
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ since November 10th. You'll remember November 10th because that was the CPI report and we had a monster move that day. November, delivering gains of about 5% on the S&P 500 futures, this December morning, down not even a tenth of 1%. On the NASDAQ 100, we're down by 0.11 percentage point. Outside of that in the bond market, yields lower through November by more than 40 basis points. You can add two more to that. We're down about two basis points on a ten year this morning to three 58, 88 on a two year basically unchanged at four 31 81, a theme of November, deep, deep curving version will pick up on that in just a moment. A famous November also a weaker dollar much, much weaker dollar through last month. The DXY Tom, you can pick out the Bloomberg dollar index if you like as well. Biggest monthly loss going back to 2010. A lot of people, John, the dollar is underplayed by the equity market shock. People are sort of reeling from, I guess, another bull market off the June rally as well. And there's people talking about going through 200 day moving average. I'm not a big believer in that. But in the dollar, there's becoming some technical veracity that wasn't there two or three weeks ago, it wasn't there. At the beginning of November, where you say, is this a trend towards weaker dollar that discussion is a December discussion. You know what happens when everyone's on the wrong side of the boat and people start running to the other side very quickly. Things happen. Shake up. We saw that in exchange. Jordan Rochester of Nomura caused somewhat offside with some of his calls as well. We're going to catch up with him later. A little bit later this morning. And how much do people get caught off sides when all of a sudden you start to see natural gas prices ticking up in Europe, which you have over the past couple of trading sessions and a little bit more colder weather. We can discuss that as well with Jordan Rochester. Just want to give you a couple names that I'm looking at this morning. Software shares. People were trying to hide out in software companies saying that a lot of big businesses were going to continue investing. They are not as much as people had expected. And you're seeing that in snowflake and Salesforce with both reporting worse than expected expectations. I find that really interesting because this had been one area that people thought was a lesser bad than perhaps some of the other big tech names, so flake shares down nearly 6% Salesforce down 7.4%. We almost named your dog there. Snowflake, I think that you would have good snowflakes. Credit Suisse shares also we were talking about that earlier today in pre market trading by more than 6% after 13 straight days of losing the longest streak ever. Those shirts are down more than 66% so far. Listen
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The markets are really focusing on the fact that the fed is likely to decelerate the pace of hikes. We're looking for 50 basis points in December. So now the 50 basis points. 50 for December. Focusing less on the promise of more hikes into the future and maybe a higher terminal rate. Waiting for that moment when the fed is likely to pivot. Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? We think they're about 70 to 80% done with the tightening cycle. They're using financial conditions keenly focused on the labor markets. Now more than ever is about growth. They are going into restrictive territory. It doesn't matter what they say because now there is going to continue damaging growth. We worry about the fed or other central banks going a bit too far. The fed see a greater risk reward in over tightening and still going to go hand in hand with considerable market volatility as investors are looking for guidance. Our guests on Bloomberg TV digesting the fed's latest minutes and talking through the next steps for policy tightening a gauge of global stocks is headed to the highest level in more than two months of dollar has rolled over heading to the lowest level. Since August, so what does go into western global head of asset allocation at odo VHF asset management make of that? I'm joined to a couple of different lines in this set of minutes from the fed. And the one which seems to have settled on is various policy makers see the peak rates higher than before. Now, this word variance is not often used, it's used to create ambiguity I'm given to understand. But various policymakers looking at peak rates, higher peak rates down before So does that draw your attention to 5 or beyond 5% as the new terminal rate. Good morning. Yeah, good morning. Actually, the tone of the minutes were a little bit more dovish than I thought. But I wouldn't be too excited here. Actually think that makes sense. To slow down the pace of hikes and then go for a pause. Somewhere in the first half of next year. And probably determine the rate will be a little bit higher than we thought probably a little bit higher than 5%. And then they are going for, but I don't think that's what the market is pricing in. For pivot, I think they will pause and see how the economy digests all the time. I think we already had. And this is the debate, isn't it? When will the pivot come? So let's get your first thought on that. And a little bit earlier I was in a Ginger and Euro dollars pricing and a 112 basis points of a cup between June of next year and during the following year. Now, that would be quite a significant pivot if it comes. So when do you think that they will be forced to pivot and what scale of pivot could you envisage? Yeah, I think the economy is still a little bit more resilient than we thought. And actually, the market thinks that there might be a soft landing, in my view, the odds are quite low for that. Given the historical performance of, let's say, only three instances for that over the last decades. So I think there will be a recession at some point, but it might come a little bit later than you think. So maybe they start cutting rates and 24 or late 23. But I don't think they will actually cut rates already and let's say in the second half. So it's starting starting in May or June has the money market is pricing in right now. So in a non soft landing scenario, does the borough market rally in equities run out of steam in the U.S. and in Germany, I'm sort of playing to your strength, obviously, the Dax is up over 20%. It's binds by 20%. I should say. So, you know, we've had this relief in some of the cross assets, haven't we? Is that misguided? I think so. I think the market has gotten a little bit ahead of itself. It's surprising and I would say goalie looks scenario with inflation falling, meaningfully, was central banks nearing a pause or even the pivot. It was economies and the Eurozone modeling through somehow and the soft landing in the U.S.. Actually, that might be a scenario, but I think the probability for that is quite low. And so we remain on the defensive side. Well, I take it then as a backstop, you don't want to buy any German football shirts, do you. Then not exactly be selling like hot cakes. Will they after last night? You got it. Actually. But I still think we have a chance, but I have to admit it's my hope that anything else. Well, that's a bit like a soft landing, isn't it? It's more hope rather that rather than reality when you look at when you look at some of the data. But so I had to get that in, but as an Irish man, I don't think we're even in the game, so don't take it too harshly. Given the scenario that you've just outlined from the fed, what does it mean for Europe? I mean, I was sort of tongue in cheek, the Dax and sponsor by 20%. China's not even reopened. We don't know where that's going to go. Nomura's downgrading the growth trajectory for China again. Then it's going to be sub 3%. Do you concur that they great European relief is inextricably linked to China or is it more linked to a less aggressive ECB? I think it's more linked to some positive news flow over the recent weeks. For example, gas storage is at 100% gas prices have declined nicely as has oil. So there's better relief and then we have all those fiscal programs and Germany stop on gas and oil and so on. So there is a better and use flow on that has certainly helped markets to rebound and also the shots. But I think it's a little bit too much what we have seen here. And what I want to see is first that growth momentum is really bottoming out that we are very close to a pause and I also think that earnings expectations are still too high and we are going to see some downgrades here. And if this falls into place, I think there's a good chance for a real rebound and a real turn of the trend. But we are not there yet. I'm afraid. Okay, which maybe delays the dramatic drop in the dollar rather than denies a drop in the dollar. I'm going to leave it there. We'll pick it up again. Hopefully in the next couple of weeks, that's going to western. You never know what Germany will do in the next football match. But tragic against Japan are sympathies. Go to western global head of acids allocation at odo beer chef management in Germany. This
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Less than three weeks away. Let's check in on the markets in Asia and how they're holding up Juliet Sully. Joins us from our Singapore studio with a birthday gift. And now that October baby use of all right, well, as you mentioned, we are on track for a 6 weekly decline. Are we oversaw while the RSI certainly showing that, but have a look at the seat of red that we are seeing here in equities and in the FX space as well and of course as we continue to see bond sold off similar to what we saw on Wall Street, you can have a look at the yield on Australia's two year after yesterday's holiday jumping by some impressive 26 basis points. It is about the investor nervousness we also had concerns about China once again weighing through into that market. But we are waiting to see whether or not Hong Kong is going to ease quarantine restrictions. So that could give a little bit of a boost to the reopening stocks in the afternoon trade when it comes to the FX space, though, another day of a stronger than expected fix from the PBOC, not doing much to support the yuan. It is leading some of these declines amongst a.m. FX today, Yusuf. I want to zoom in on China for a moment because we've got downgrades for the economy. What are some of the notes saying? Yeah, absolutely. We're talking yesterday about Goldman Sachs. They're cutting their downgrades, cutting their focus, I should say for China's growth for 2023. So if they get about this year, they're now forecasting that COVID zero is going to impact next year too. And today Nomura doing the same. They have actually cut their growth forecast to 4.3 from 5.1% again citing COVID zero. At the same time, you have Morgan Stanley saying investor sentiment for China's a shares has reached a new year to date low, but you could see a little bit of a technical rebound on a more sustainable recovery. That's dependent on the macro outlook and of course what we hear from the party Congress. They do though say there could be a little bit of caution next week as we look ahead to those national day holidays. Let's flip the board and have a look at what we're seeing in some of these technical indicators because the MSCI China index has a near 6 year low insight. It's on the verge of testing that 2016 support line. And we're talking earlier about China's CSI 300 index looking prime for a potential rebound it's led to a four month low and the RSI suggesting that the selling there may be excessive use of. George, thank you for highlighting that chart, very interesting. Juliette Sally there with the roundup. I want to stay with some of the progress being made on the fiscal side of things. And this part of the world, because Egypt is hopeful that it can reach at least a staff level agreement on IMF assistance within the next couple of months. And the government is also exploring options that include affordable loans from China and from Japan. The finance minister Muhammad bin spoke to Bloomberg in New York. We are working with them, we hope one to two months, we can finish negotiation with IMF. And the size of the deal? Not yet. Give us a range. I can not. I can not because it
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Love about FX analysis right now and that was Jordan Rochester of Nomura. They're not talking about the ECB next week, Tom. They're talking about Nord stream one coming back online and how much gas comes through it. That's where you're basing your Euro dollar call on right now. In defense of these guys, when it's quiet, it's quiet and when you get big figure moves, which is what they're getting. One full figure, whatever the pair is, they all get lathered up. I mean, I like what she jukes and socks and said about it yesterday. You know, parody, okay, great. Can we move on? You know, it's just a number, but to George, let's be clear, mister Rochester has been dead on. I saw, I think it was zero edge quoting him yesterday, quoting namara yesterday. He's been fantastic, and I'm not criticizing them. That's just what the FX call on the Euro comes down to now is gas supply. A run through things quickly, futures up a third of 1% on the S&P on the NASDAQ of four tenths of 1%. 41 minutes away from CPI in America, yields in a basis .295 76, crewed bouncing back from ugly losses yesterday at 1%, 96, 80. This from city, moments ago, Tom. They're looking for 0.6% month on month core headline year over year 8.9. 8.9 investor attention to upside risk to inflation rather than downside risk to growth. From the America, Andrew Holland horse. This is important. We need to summarize this for those that don't keep score. Holland horse has been way out front on this. He has been in market economics leading the way on a higher terminal rate and nudging, as I said before, to puja, 8.8 out to 8.9 is not a small tenth of a percentage. He's not alone on 8.9 some. There's a couple of banks looking for the same. City at 8.9 HSBC at 8.9 TD at 8.9 golden at 8.9% Deutsche Bank at 9 Lisa. I missed that. There you go Throw Deutsche Bank into the mix Tom. CPI Wednesday. I'm excited. Let's save ourselves with pretty goop to an uncharted of the day. What do you have? Well, it comes down to that exact theme, except in the FX space. Let's take it outside of the United States and talk about the ultimate carry trade that at the end of the day is based on the inflation data I'm talking, of course, about the worst performing currency, the Japanese yen, and the best performing currency, the Brazilian real, that is, of course, if you exclude the Russian ruble and the capital controls there, my chart of the day Tom shows you that ultimate carry trade going back 20 years in the cyclicality of it for our radio audience. Imagine kind of just this ebb and flow, essentially these waves almost that you are seeing over 20 years. The reason I bring up this particular chart is not just because of that carry differential, which of course has been a trade that's been at play in this market in the last I want to say two years or so, but also because this specific currency pair it's now approaching levels we last saw in 2017, which marked a major pivot point that you saw in this major economy. What's interesting here is this time we're hitting that pivot point. And the calls aren't for growth the way that they were back in 2017. Yen real? Unreal. Yeah, in real. Never looked at it. Jeremy stretch has, we'll move over to Jeremy stretch right now. I had a G ten FX strategy at CIBC, Jeremy. Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. How do you bring this inflation report over to your study of foreign exchange? Well, you're actually right. The inflation print is going to be the defining factor as far as today is concerned. And it really comes back to how much of an aggressive reaction function you're going to price in from the fed, and of course on base case scenario is that until we see a definitive and durable peak in inflation, their markets are going to remain fires towards the left hand end of that dollar smile so that keeps the dollar relatively well supported against the bulk of the major currencies. That includes the Euro and of course that takes us back to that whole debate about parity, whether it's relevant or not. But also, I think we will continue to see the dollar remaining well bid against not only the growth orientated currencies, but also some of those that are related to commodity revenue. So I think it's an overall bias that if we are going to see an upside surprise of inflation, I was just listening to your discussions regarding which houses are looking for an upside surprise. If that is the reaction function, then I think we will continue to see the dollar remaining generalized fair well bid. But Jeremy, we started this segment talking about how a lot of FX strategists have to pay more attention to the dynamic in gas pipelines than they do to the rate policies of different central banks. How important is Central Bank policy at this point given some of the other concerns? Well, Central Bank policy is always important, but I think certainly when you're talking about gas supplies and in effect, we're talking effectively about what's happening in the Eurozone and just listening to those comments and not streaming one. I think those are very relevant. So in a sense, I think from an ECB perspective, we're assuming that there needs to be effectively pre committed itself to its policy narrative as regards next to me. Next week's meeting. So I think it will be an extreme surprise that needs to be able to do anything other than the hype and by 25 basis points. So in a sense, that leads us back to looking at the other key differentials of the key reaction functions in terms of the Eurozone and clearly gas suppliers and evidential concern because of course, no doubt in the army worried about supply, but also we're looking at prices because of course we've seen a substantial uptick in terms of gas prices. So even if supplies come back, we're still going to see competitiveness of the users on manufacturing stocks are being compromised. And that's still labors into that negative Euro narrative, which seems likely to persist over the course of the summer period. Jeremy what are rate highs from the ECP actually achieve? Well, I think from a century bank perspective, you have to remember that what a Central Bank aiming to achieve and particularly those that are predetermined in terms of targeting inflation. It's all about managing or attempting to manage inflation expectations. So in a sense, the ECB has been very late to the party in terms of both ending bond purchases and also looking at to adjust the policy in terms of graduated tightening. But what needs to be our attempting to achieve is to signal to the market that they haven't given up on inflation, inflation expectations still matter. And I think the one point that I would point out in terms of the ECB's favor as we go into next week's meeting, if you look at those inflation expectations, when you're looking at the Eurozone 5 year 5 year inflation swap, that has come back from the sort of extremes that we were seeing a month or two ago when we were well in excess of that 2% target threshold. So we have some inflation expectations remaining relatively anchored and that's partly due to the market anticipating the ECB will
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg daybreak, Middle East, your top stories this morning. I think the risks of a 2022 recession are significantly higher than I would have judged 6 or 9 weeks ago. Investors weigh recession fears against inflation as markets enter what shaping up to be a turbulent second half. Your suit is retreat while bonds advance at the start of trade. Commodities under pressure amid growth risks and war in Ukraine JPMorgan say oil prices could reach a stratospheric $380 a barrel. And shimo fails to pay a $1 billion bond note. Adding to record year of default for Chinese developers. So these markets are moving. We've got 4th of July people will squeal that we haven't got the liquidity. Let's see what Juliet Sally presents as her reasoning for the markets this morning. Jill's. Well, still a lot of these growth concerns, and that's very much weighing into a lot of the EMs. Have a look at Jakarta's market today Madison Indonesia, the JCI falling the most since May and certainly a laggard in the region. I guess that equity index really not reflecting the full picture though because as you mentioned a few minutes ago, we asked you're seeing some upside in the likes of Australia, the likes of Japan as well. And that is actually sending the regional benchmark index higher for the first time in four sessions, but you can see a lot of weakness in the likes of the Thai X extending. It's bear market Hong Kong also playing catch up because you remember it was closed on Friday elsewhere. We're seeing a little bit more upside coming through in some of these currencies particularly one up there by about a tenth of 1%. Jeffrey is turning more bullish as many are on the overall China story and certainly on the CSI 300 when it comes to the commodities market. We've heard that call on Goldman from iron or it is dropping by more than 4% today and then of course we're watching bonds being beard particularly in Australia ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow, not expecting 75 basis points to market though, certainly expecting that we will see a 50 basis point hike from the Central Bank. And that will be the first time on record that we've seen two back to back 50 basis point hikes from the RBA Manus. Well, I mean, we're both grappling with what recession is and we're asking guests that same question. Nomura warning, many major economies could a recession next year, but when they talk about it, what sort of shape and scale of recession are they referring to duels? Yeah, absolutely. And they're saying it is all going to be on the fact that we're not only dealing with these rising prices, but because central banks are earning too much on the side of tightening. So they're saying the depth of recessions will vary amongst nations in the U.S. they're forecasting a shallow but long recession of 5 quarters starting from the final quarter of this year. In Europe, the slump could be much deeper, of course that relies a lot on what we're seeing between Russia and Ukraine and if Russia entirely cuts off gas to Europe. When it comes to some of the economies in this part of the world, they're also forecasting some downturn for the likes of South Korea, Australia as well. Risk of deeper than forecast recessions if interest rate hikes there really trigger burst to the housing market as well. Japan, though forecast to have the milder recession according to Nomura and of course, as we know, China is a different story altogether. And we heard from the securities journal as well today suggesting potentially more stimulus coming through from authorities in China. That will, of course, continue to aid the overall economic picture there, Manus. Yeah, and that could well be what saves some of those commodity and lotions that we're seeing at the moment. So thank you very much to it, sunny day with a very latest course and direction on the Asian markets. With computation between Iran and Russia to sell crude oil to China, it's heating up both countries are trying to export more oil to the east as the U.S. sanctions impact their ability to sell to other markets Bloomberg small foxman has more on the details. So Simone, this is a question of how much can you discount your oil and that's for Iran to China, but that's going to spark a few reactions maybe inside OPEC, isn't it? Yeah, absolutely. And certainly when we look at the magnitude of the discounts, the traders have told Bloomberg about they've in fact doubled for Iran since the invasion of Ukraine. So they were four to $5 a barrel now they're looking like $10 a barrel against crude futures. And frankly, there are limited markets overall for Iranian crude in particular, but for Russian crude as well that seems to be impacted by these U.S. sanctions and a lot of this specific oil going to what are called Chinese teapots. They're independent refiners. They can't take a lot of their product outside the domestic market and therefore they're very sensitive to price. So worth understanding that this is sort of a small piece of the market, but as you mentioned and as you alluded to Manus, this could have broader implications for the traditional trade ties between consumers and suppliers, Russia surpassing Saudi Arabia in terms of providing the most crude to China for the first time in May. I think if you're in the goal for if you're even Iran, you're looking around and saying, hey, wait a second. This might be reshaping the global crude market as we know it. And what do we have to do to respond to that? Indeed, and you've also got veto kicking in there with a peak demand or a demand destruction at kicking in on the crack spreads and the products. Let's pivot and talk about inflation. It's never far from our agenda. Is it in turkey? We've got the data today. What are we expecting? Another tough reading. Yeah, and even worse reading than we saw for the month of May, we're expecting 80% year on year inflation for the month of June, that indicates if 5.7% increase in prices on a month on month basis. Deutsche Bank describing the situation as spiraling inflation, saying that it sees no anchor for prices, so only escalating as we head into the month of July. And likely to add to this dynamic going forward. So we're not going to see this in June, but we are likely to see it in July is the announcement of an increase in the minimum wage by 30% 29%. Just over the past couple of days, 40% of the workers in turkey rely on this minimum wage. So that could continue to boost prices, but right now it just looks like there's no end in sight for this period of perhaps hyperinflation, turkey could have one of the worst inflation readings for the year according to the IMF. And then what does that do to the Turkish lira, which is we can substantially against the U.S. dollar this year? And finally, that's rounded off monetary policy decisions. We've got the RBA tomorrow. We've got jobs report on Friday and then mixed into the middle of all of this. We've got the Israeli decision. What do we expect there? We expect yet another aggressive move by the bank of Israel, a 50 basis point hike. This unseen in more than a decade. And really continuing sort of an aggressive pace of hikes. The Central Bank kind of confined by two tasks here. One, try and keep up with central banks elsewhere in the world, which are even moving more quickly in part because they have higher inflation readings. We'll look at it and Israeli inflation of four plus percent year on year. But the second one is actually very interesting in terms of what happened politically in the country last week with the collapse of the government. So the bank of Israel no longer going to be aided by fiscal policy. So essentially going to have to carry this burden of trying to keep inflation under control by itself. Typically we've seen markets not really react to Israeli politics. There's just been so many governments coming through there in the past couple of years that we haven't seen a major move, but now we're looking at a shekel that's the weakest against the U.S.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller Are there some sectors that you want to have more or less exposure to We've got to vaccinate the whole world analysis of the days Wall Street action What's the thought on apple here from Bloomberg intelligence Bloomberg opinion and influential newsmaker The bond market was the boss Bloomberg markets with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller Subscribe today and Bloomberg radio dot com the Bloomberg business app or iTunes This is Bloomberg law with June gross from Bloomberg radio I've been talking to UCLA law professor James park about a former Nomura senior bond trader who was found not liable by lying to them about the prices of commercial mortgage backed securities Number agreed in 2019 to repay customers $25 million to resolve claims that it failed to supervise traders It seems striking that the government in these cases has basically been unable to get convictions or convictions that stick True I think that the defense might say a corporation like Nomura has incentive to settle cases with the SEC which is regulating it in a lot of different areas whereas individuals have more of an incentive to fight charges and I think it's something that the SEC is not always correct And individuals of course have a right to make their arguments sometimes they succeed sometimes they don't Overall I think it's a good thing when the SEC is challenged in litigation and occasionally has to bring cases to trial So I think certainly defense attorneys are well within their bounds in litigating these sorts of cases And there have been some losses but there have also been a few wins to a lot of individuals have also bee bargained or settled cases by and large and the second circuit that day in one of those cases involving another creator at Nomura that these lies could be material They could be material It's just an issue for the jury And so it's a legal matter to me This is a sound legal theory And just because the FCC lost this case and maybe a few others does not necessarily mean that it's a bad theory The other interesting thing about some of the earlier cases is that they were criminal cases Criminal cases largely brought by the U.S. attorney's office in Connecticut And that's a higher standard of crew And so one of the interesting things about the M twiddle is that this is a civil case with a lower standard of proof And so I could see why the SEC would bring these sorts of cases under that lower standard And then I think it's a significant thing that even under the lower standards that the SEC lost this particular case And so that is a significant loss for the SEC But I still think that these are good cases that the government should have brought even though they could be challenging to win each and every one of them Do you think it's a waste of money and resources for the SEC to keep bringing these cases I don't think it's a waste of money I think that the SEC should take cases to trial when this has to One of the criticisms of the SEC is that it just settles cases whether the 7s do not admit or deny wrongdoing and they just pay a penalty And I think that there should be cases where you go to court and go in front of a jury You might have to defend a decision in front of an appellate court And when the court weighs in on a legal theory that provides valuable clarity to the SEC and the industry as to what the law is And so I don't think it's a waste of money for the FCC I think that they should build up this experience even though it does take a lot of time in terms of attorney resources the more you try complex cases in federal court the better you'll get at And I think that's something that the SEC needs to continue to develop that expertise But it is costly in terms of time and resources But I think it's worth the cost Because of this crackdown where they're changes made in the industry are bond traders not engaging in this now The main change which is evident from some of the papers I read in the case is that banks like Nomura now have fewer policies about lying in transactions like this And I suspect that that is something that is very clear But in this very case even after Nomura has the policy which I think was after the lit back case which you referred to this defendant continued to lie And so that's probably that's probably to me that you have this sort of misconduct potentially continuing I hope that it is an aberration And I do believe that the vast majority of folks who work on Wall Street are ethical artist people And especially when there's a clear policy on an issue they will understand that there are certain lines that can not be crossed So I don't know if this market has changed but I'm certain of that The banks are more aware of the issue and I hope that they are taking measures to ensure that this sort of misconduct does not continue On a scale of one to ten how damaging would you say this verdict is to the government's attempts to rein in questionable practices by bond traders I would rate it about a 6 I think that it is one case on the other hand it does raise some problems in the SEC theory on materiality and what is material It also raises issues about the protection of sophisticated investors and it's plausible that the jury thought these are sophisticated investors who should protect themselves and they should not just rely upon these statements There's also the challenge of bringing cases with respect to conduct that might be sanctioned by industry norm It can be very difficult to challenge that sort of conduct as being illegal when it is the industry norm I do think the SEC should try and I think it was right for them to do it in this particular case And so I think you know the occasional loss is going to happen when you are bringing cases like this and to me it's the loss and it's significant but it's not a terrible blow to the SEC work You know it's interesting to think about how the prosecutors and enforcement attorneys and the bill hwang cases we talked about a week or two ago my view this decision And I said that they're a little bit nervous about this result It's a Manhattan jury It was a case brought with a lower standard of proof and the jury found that these were lies but they were not material because they were directed at sophisticated parties And that to some extent described some of the misconduct in the Bill fong case with respect to lies about the positions on funds was taking and the amount of leverage that it had because these are sophisticated banks On the other hand I think we can differentiate this case because this is not a case that the M case is not one that shook the stock market or the bond market These are live that enable Nomura and its traders to earn a little bit more in commissions and it didn't have really a huge impact on third parties whereas the Huang case is one where the lives allegedly facilitated manipulation that literally shook the entire stock market Thanks James That's professor James park of UCLA law school Coming up how to spot dishonest lawyers This is Bloomberg but I know about Take.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Former Nomura senior bond trader was found not liable for defrauding the bank's clients by lying to them about the prices of commercial mortgage backed securities James M who led the firm CMBS desk from 2009 until 2014 was accused by the Securities and Exchange Commission of securities fraud The jury verdict is another blow to the government's attempts to rainy and questionable practices by bond traders Joining me is James park a professor at UCLA law school Dark by telling us what were the charges or the allegations against James M James then was a trader a bond trader who worked for the bank Nomura And the basic allegation is that he lied while facilitating a market for trading in bonds backed by mortgages and his case mortgages on commercial properties and really there are four or 5 instances identified in the complaint where him would basically buy a bond for $70 and then you would claim to someone else that he had paid $75 for it And so he would then mark up the price of the bond based on the fall $75 price as opposed to the lower $70 price and basically get a higher markup for himself and Nomura and the SEC basically argued that this was security fraud He took the stand in his own defense and he admitted to lying to clients but he said that everyone did it It is remarkable It is remarkable that he did not deny that he was lying and the thing that's interesting about the case and the result here is that even if you lie about a security transaction it doesn't necessarily mean you violated the securities laws There's a requirement that the lie has to be about a material matter Something that's important to the investors decision making process and I believe it's argument was that because of the industry practice the investors who bought the bond from him would have known not to believe him and therefore those statements were not material and could not constitute securities fraud There are responses I think that one can make to that argument but I think that's the gist of what he argued and the defense was successful Tell me the responses because the prosecution has not been so successful in these cases I think the best response is well if it was not important to investors and investor decision making why does the defendant have to lie in the first place Why did they misrepresent the price that they bought the bonds at And you know what in and some others in these cases have argued is that these are sophisticated investors who rely upon valuation models to determine what the price of the bond should be and that they're relying on the valuation models And if they don't want to buy the bonds they can always walk away from the transaction that they think that the price is unfair But you know valuation models are very imprecise and the best evidence the value of a bond in a particular point in time is the last transaction at which that Bond traded at And to the extent that M lied and in others did as well then that to me is certainly arguably material And on the issue of the industry defense it's just very hard to know what the industry practice really want And I have some doubts about to what extent was this really pervasive among all bond traders and was it everyone or was it just a few bad apples I'm skeptical that it was everyone who felt the need to make such specific lies about the price but you know in the end I think that SEC may not have provided sufficient evidence on the industry practice So I think there are responses to the defense but they obviously failed in this particular case before this jury The defense attorney equated what M did basically to a car salesman apparently that did catch the juries imagination but I mean is that a good comparison I wouldn't want a car salesman that lied to me about the price that he or she bought the car for And I think that par salesman of course will exaggerate their imbalance They may use some puffery They may use a little bit of a pressure technique to get you to buy the car but to me I think it would be extremely problematic if the car salesman lied about specific things about the car and its condition And I think that you know in my view I would not want to do business with a bond trader who was making specific lies And I think there's a distinction between hard negotiation maybe a little bit of embellishment exaggeration and lying about something that is very specific Coming up next on the Bloomberg law show I'll continue this conversation with professor James park of UCLA law school and we'll talk about what this defeat does to the government's attempt to rein in questionable practices by bond traders And later in the show how to spot dishonest lawyers They're probably playing a game Remember you can always get the latest legal news by listening to our Bloomberg law podcast wherever you get your favorite podcasts I'm June grosso and you're listening to Bloomberg The.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Thing is when she talks about yourself landing recession avoiding it This is not an exact science And this is something we have to keep remembering as we kind of dissect fed policy They're going to try and make the right calls but it's not perfect Yeah speaking of calls it's been incredible to watch the calls around what the fed is going to do not just at the next meeting but in June and July change just in recent days I know you all saw that Nomura note that now says it's expecting the fed to lift interest rates by 75 basis points at June and July meetings So talk about a shift in the way that we think about this Well I love that one of the notes and B of a was 75 is the new 25 Incredible And maybe not 75 every meeting but it's more than 25 It could be 50 as you have a Federal Reserve that's really trying to map out a path forward that's aggressive And it gets to the idea that we talk about that neutral way where the fed ends up And now you have a market that is actually pricing in what A 200 basis point So basically two full percentage points over the next four meetings here The idea here that by the time you get to the end of the year will be at that neutral rate a lot faster maybe than some people expect it Maybe that's a good thing for the fed I don't know Certainly in the short term that's not going to be a good thing for the market But I think a lot of people want to know not just how many rate hikes we get by how fast we get to them and how fast we come to an end Yeah what is a good thing anymore That is a great question Romain If you look at the market the declines are good thing for some people who want to be spending some money at these lower valuations You see it in private equity but the vix going up like that I'm not sure that that is a good thing Once that starts to happen and if it happens at a greater rate you start to stifle capital markets activity again and that's investment Hey Tim we got a big week coming up next week He's coming right A lot like a 180 companies out of the S&P 500 I mean what's that going to do for the market I mean obviously some of those companies will do well But my guess is there's going to be a lot of advertisers People try to dissect how these corporate earnings are holding Oh okay so the question is is it going to be a Netflix story with these companies Or is it going to be a story of a company like Procter & Gamble or the airlines that we saw that are able to weather these price increases and pass along those operating costs that they're seeing increase to consumers And also get a good idea of the consumer Hey we got a good idea from the consumer about from AmEx earlier today that they're getting out there and spending still All right so more earnings to come Hey.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That may have greater growth potential Try IBKR global analysts today and IBKR and dot com slash GA For now let's take a look at the Asian treading day ahead limbic spine Curtis is here Brian All right thanks very much as coming up on two minutes past the hour Let's take a closer look You mentioned treasuries rallying with ten year yields dropping ten basis points here at Bank of America Nomura asset management even others seeing buying opportunities in bonds here Bank of America said that it has turned long on ten year securities Most U.S. stocks rose but tech got slammed a partially on the Netflix disaster We told you all about that yesterday Netflix was down 35% in the session today Earnings very much in focus we'll get to Tesla in a moment United Airlines gained after posting its results It said it expects to be profitable this year And CEO Scott Kirby said the demand environment is the strongest it's been in my 30 years in the industry That was quite surprising to hear that Alcoa declined as its sales of aluminum were weaker than expected the boomer commodity index was down about a quarter of a percent We mentioned the yield on the ten year now 2.83% the two year at two 57 The dollar was a little bit weaker and the yen fell Dolly yen right now one 27 89 we were tracking in the high one 29s yesterday Equity futures are mixed here at the moment We have Hanks index futures down 7 tenths of a percent S&P E minis are up FTSE China a 50s or up and Australian futures are up about four tenths of 1% Doug to you All right Brian thanks Well here in the states after the bell we heard from Tesla record quarterly profit on the bottom line earning surged a 147% from last year If you look at the top line quarterly sales were up 81% So this revenue figure that we got was nearly a $1 billion more than estimates Now these results came despite the lockdown in Shanghai and the factory there along with the continued supply chain challenges that Tesla faces on the earnings call CEO Elon Musk said the Shanghai factory is back up and running and the outlook remains strong We remain confident of a 30% growth in vehicle production in 2022 versus 21 I think we actually have a reasonable shot at a 60% increase over last year So the market seems to be enjoying what it heard and shares right now in Tesla up 5% in late U.S. trading Cause And staying on Tesla dark CEO Elon Musk has defeated an endpoint investors to make him stay quiet about an SEC lawsuit the case stands from his tweets in 2018 about securing funding to take Tesla private earlier this month a judge sided with the SEC and wrote the tweets were false and misleading since then Mars has publicly complained about the SEC shareholders asked judge to restrict mosques commentary until the trial in January they argued the comments threatened to taint the jury but the judge disagreed and ruled a gag order is not warranted Coming up on 5 minutes past the hours we update global news Russia has says it has fired a new nuclear capable ICBM to send a message to the U.S. and to NATO at Baxter covering it all from.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It faces a big dilemma The RBI has surprised markets with its easy monetary policy and that's even with inflation breaching its limit of 6% for two months Now investors appear to be divided into two camps one says the RBI is underplaying inflationary risk and might have to tighten much more aggressively later The other camp believes there are no real demand side pressures on inflation and the RBI is on the right track Doug and I asked ruchi bhatia Bloomberg's economy editor in New Delhi to join us for some discussion Richie thanks very much for being with us What makes this even more difficult perhaps and unknowable is the supply side Rising commodity prices And that's where the war that is still ongoing What are you hearing about Whether or not the RBI will change course Well not really it looks like the RBI in their Central Bank is headed for maintaining its longest pause even though inflation has now become a cause of worry The chorus seems to be growing louder now within the Central Bank itself that inflation perhaps could be more entrenched than what they had earlier believed However the RBI may not buy the bullet instead it could once again look to support growth focus on a durable recovery for a longer period of time fearing demand destruction The RBI believes that current inflation is largely due to supply side constraints and raising rates perhaps may not be the answer for that You know India is a member as we know of the so called quad alliance along with the U.S. Australia and Japan and yet it has declined to publicly take sides in the war in Ukraine has the west in some way and I would include let's say Japan and Australia and that's not literally the west has the west underestimated the extent to which India is reliant on Russia for trade Yes I know Let me try and explain this for generations India's grand strategy has been dealing with great power conflicts that has consisted on India really sitting on the fence and so far India has been following that strategy through the war in Ukraine as well India has made it very clear that economic interests for them are at the forefront of their foreign policy for instance India has not outrightly condemned Moscow's attack on its neighbor saying that Russia and new pain should end hostilities and seek a diplomatic solution through a dialog going forward We know that one of the big challenges for central bankers globally has been the pandemic What's the situation in India right now At the moment some of the pandemic related curbs have been eased in the country and that of course goes on to show that India's nascent recovery could finally start picking up pace but this is of course coming in at a time that one can not really ignore what's happening globally in the Ukraine crisis will certainly have a domino effect on the economy Remember Russia's invasion of Ukraine is of course coming in at a time when the country has just come out of a repeated virus waves and at the time like this rising commodity prices such as crude oil metals will have a bearing on everything from economic growth to inflation to taxes to budget gap and that is something that will need a lot of attention of policymakers What are some of the immediate effects aside from the supply side and commodity gains What are some of the effects of the Russia Ukraine war on India Well let me break it down for you Doug and Bryant in 5 points so the Ukraine war is going to have a large impact of domino impact For example let's talk about economic growth every 10% rise in oil prices will lower the GDP by as much as 20 basis points according to Nomura and that is going to lead to growth uncertainties as a country really navigates through an uneven recovery oil prices if they sustain the current levels that could lower the GDP going forward by almost 50 basis points As far as taxes are concerned are the Indian government in the month of a November last year had already undertaken some excise duty cuts on fuel will they go ahead and once again announce duty cuts is something that we have to wait and watch out for There is also a possibility that we could see India's current account deficit come in at a decade high of close to 3% of oil prices continue to stay at the current levels and lastly it is going to make life tougher for monetary policy makers given RBI's dovish bias The Central Bank will have to sooner than later go in for a policy rate Richie thank you very much for your insights Ruchi bhatia Bloomberg's economy editor on the line from New Delhi I'm Brian Curtis along with Doug cruzer You can catch us every weekday here for Bloomberg daybreak Asia beginning at 6 a.m. in Hong Kong.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To consider the impact on the workforce in NHS and social care settings especially at a time when we already have a shortage of workers and near full employment across the economy That was due to come into effect four NHS staff in England at the beginning of April Onto the latest on tensions around Ukraine the UN Security Council voted to halt an open hearing on the issue despite moves by China and Russia to block it The U.S. and UK said they would sanction oligarchs close to president Vladimir Putin if Russia invades Speaking to Bloomberg Estonia prime minister kaja callis said NATO's unity and confronting the potential threat against Ukraine has indeed been key NATO's article 5 is a very important article saying that attack on one is attack on all And this declares from the details the Russian aggression to our country for example Meanwhile Boris Johnson will travel to Ukraine later today for talks with prime minister Vladimir zelensky Moscow has repeatedly denied its planning to attack its western neighbor And finally in earnings news this morning Nomura has posted a 39% slump in third quarter profit after the firm's trading business posted a lackluster result adding to science at the heightened market activity spurred by the pandemic is slowing Japan's biggest brokerage said revenue from the global markets division fell 13% year on year the results extended a tough financial year for namura after it was shaken up by the archegos collapse Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists Santa analysts in war than 120 countries I'm Leanne guerins This is Bloomberg Anna I just wanted to wish you happy lunar new year As I heard you say that in your markets reports a year of the Tiger so it's my year Well excellent my year to leann There we are That's important detail Right let's stick with earnings and turn to another bank reporting this morning UBS was hit by a $740 million charge in the fourth quarter related to a French tax case but the bank will buy back up to $5 billion of shares this year almost doubling its total buyback program UBS also lived a key profit and efficiency targets after net income and revenue beat estimates Bloomberg anchor Manus granny spoke with the UBS CEO Ralph harmers and began by asking him about the bank's buyback plans We have a model that keeps generating capital our growth is capital light We don't need a lot of capital to grow We want to keep a strong balance sheet However we do have surface capital If you have surplus capital it doesn't need to be used for further growth Then you should redistribute it to your shareholders And that's why the message is there today Progressive is the word that's used to run the dividend and pay in terms of how the market sees you Are you trying to push out ahead as the payout bank of choice Not necessarily I think what we are looking at is literally our strategy So the market was waiting for okay where is the strategy going Our strategies to build that global ecosystem for investing Now building that ecosystem with all clients with new contributors does not need a lot of capital to grow We grow it It will grow an income It will need some capital It generates a lot of capital Now the general is a lot of capital and it grows You can do two things You can continue to pay a handsome dividend and really dispute Jewish shareholders If you have a capitalist or a situation And that's what we can market says for 5 rate hikes What do you believe they will do What do you believe the market can take in terms of rate hikes without a major implosion It's exactly that number I think So otherwise the market will be expecting it It's almost a logic reasoning in itself But I actually think it's about just because of 5 to 7 You're going for 5 to 7 rate hikes This is four to 5 four to 5 That is exactly what is priced in the market as we speak And I think the market can take that And I think the fed is just waiting for the market to have really assumed and absorbed that And then they may do it or they will do it So basically they are signaling it will be coming the market is adjusting and then they will do it And then clearly maybe towards the end of the year depending on how the inflation actually develops they may either do more or less From an inflation perspective I'll actually think 2020 will be a year of two halves In the first half year still high inflation but because of the hopefully decreasing tension in the supply chain decreasing tension in the labor markets and a more balanced between the demand coming from COVID savings for example From that perspective hopefully also supporting with some monetary policy there that the inflation will be down and under control towards the end of the year So I think it's going to be a year of two halves here Let's see how that plays out but inflation plays out in wages Christian saving is seen an increasing war for talent Are you I think we're all in the same market here So where we see some pressure on our on our workforce We see it in the U.S. we see it in a bit in wealth Asia Pacific because we are deleting a wealth manager in Asia And we see the investment banking across the globe in the banking sphere Now clearly we pay competitively We pay for performance We have the talent to make our plan and to the extent we need to pay up We will do so as we have done so last year I haven't said that We have a very good and attractive culture to work in as well So I think there was more recipes than just pay to make sure that the people stay But if I look at the bonus pools around the world Deutsche Bank up 15% Goldman JPMorgan 40 to 50% up What kind of percentage do you see the bonus pool at UBS rising this year I can't give a percentage yet But it is increasing We're 2020 was up by 24% Yeah it is not as much as that this year It is about paying for performance That is what is important And if people perform they get paid well If they don't they don't clearly the market has done really well We have done really well in the market So the pay is up Are you paying to hire I'm thinking well the sign ons in investment banking and wealth management I'm just curious are you paying more I haven't really woken up Until I've had my McDonald's breakfast deal and I know this is true because before breakfast I put my phone in the refrigerator and couldn't find the keys that were already in my hand Nothing gets.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nomura" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Across the region around about the three tenths of 1% area the nikkei is now up 87 points with a gain of about that about a third of a percent similar gains in Sydney and at the moment the Hank sing index is up about a tenth of 1% but the Hanks and tech index is down another 9 tenths of 1% We feature the ten cent story It's going to give away almost its entire $16 billion stake in JD.com to its shareholders But there's a few things about the story that some investors don't like one it's reminder that the regulatory crackdown is very much there the thinking is that Tencent probably wouldn't be doing this unless it's being forced to take a hands off position In any case the shares of JD.com perhaps because of expectations of less of a partnership with Tencent going forward A down pretty sharply off about 10% Now to the other story that we said we'd feature here It's been a pretty tough year for Chinese property firms but it's going to get even harder in the coming months On top of increasing offshore Bond bills developers and their contractors need to pay 1.1 trillion a 173 billion U.S. in deferred wages to migrate construction workers and that has to happen by the end of the lunar year And that's according to Nomura estimates In 2022 that falls on January 31st China has made it clear that failing to pay workers on time is not an option given the risk of unrest just before the Beijing Winter Olympics So that's all ahead for the developers Yield on the ten year 1.45% WTI crew now 73 O 7 a barrel And that is a check of markets Ten minutes before the top of the hour thereabouts news for that Baxter in San Francisco All right thank you Brian China's president Xi Jinping according to the government has told Hong Kong chief executive Carrie.
Democracy Now! Audio
"nomura" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio
"Just all damaged station is illegal for them to continue the use of title forty two yen instead of doing the right thing if actually fighting right against really providing protection for the people that is why we mush push. We must push bat. We hired exhausted but we are here. We are here to let the migrant asylum seekers know that they are not alone would continue to fight for them who were to advocate for them because their lives matic. I wanted to the black the whipped by this officer. He's life matter so we must alternate to asking in urging the on the station to immediately stop all to petitions to haiti in view of what we have of what of what's happening. The world is watching america. I want to ask a jacqueline charles. About the latest news on the assassination of the haitian presidential vanilla. Moe's your recent. Miami herald article is headline grenade dropping drones paranoid president guards who ran latest on haiti assassination. In you write the night. Moe's was shot was actually the second time in a span of weeks. This life was in danger. According to testimony from one of the colombians custody one of the haitian americans as well two weeks earlier. A plan to arrest moe's using a bogus arrest warrant upon his return from a trip to turkey was thwarted when a signal to act was never given That's according to jana. Roberto carmona florez x. Colombian soldier now in custody. He told this to police another plan to employ disgruntled mass. Haitian police officers known as phantom five. Zero nine to the president was also aboard at according to People involved and use right according to this report What is phantom five. Oh nine who is. Joseph felix baio. And what role. May he have played in the assassination of president maurice. Is there a warrant for his arrest to find call nine is a disgruntled part inside the police. Some of them are active. Some of them are former number of them have been arrested in you know in recently but earlier this year he some of your viewers may recall. We saw the police in haiti protesting taking on the streets blowing up cars letting out prisoners had inside the police. Is this low morale people just feeling that they're working as police officers. They cannot survive. And we've been watching this implosion of a police force. in haiti. the united states government actually supports financially. The un has trained by. You know rebuild. But we've seen just crumble in front of us one of the things that i found in my investigation when i was looking at this reports in talking to people is that it appears that that low morale that struggle nick inside that he should national police found his way also into the presidential security apparatus there according to his wife. There should have been thirty to fifty police officers assigned to presidential nominees but on the night in question the seventh of july there were seven police officers that were assigned one of whom disappeared at four pm and did not come back until after the assassination this according to testimony this particular gentleman is actually a leader eighteen leader. So you had six officers that were. They are on the ground and what was interesting. Is that all of these officers who were interviewed whether they have been taken into custody for lack of action of alleged involvement or they had not been arrested but they gave providing right additional information. They told police investigators that other no circumstances that they were allowed in president job. Numb is house. So could you imagine you are part of the protection. A president being secret services nited states that they are not allowed in the in the private residence of president biden. This is what was happening here so in the name question. None of these guys and girls attempted to go inside the president's house where there wasn't evacuation plan. There wasn't a back door so for thirty to forty five minutes president of nomura eases hearing droughts dropping grenades. He's hearing automatic gunfire. He's calling the phone friend. Come come save me my life. Dangerous said reinforcements. Nobody showed up by the time you know a high ranking officer actually came. The president was dead is white seriously injured and these soldiers who insisted they were not there to kill. The president had nothing to do with it. They were there arrest him in and and to help to install. The new president is distorted. They're told they're telling along with you. Know to haitian americans who said they were translators. But you know there was this sort of firefight that was going on. But your is a former government functionary. He's been in the ministry of Of immigration is felton until may when he was fired for quote unquote ethical breaches. He worked in the ministry of the anti-corruption government unit. This is a guy who was well known in haiti's political circus circles. I mean in terms of people in power president. Moi's new gm. I heard the he at one point by joe was even shortlists for a job a job in the in the government and administration so he's described by police this report as quote unquote one of the brains of this operation. The is still juggling. Jacques fucked up. We only have about a minute left. But i just wanted to ask you in terms of the leak report. They've been over over forty people taken into custody but no indication of this in his report of who actually was the mastermind of this of this assassination. Police tell you you know. They're still saying that it was tunnel. was american doctor in pasture. That he's one of the masterminds or by jews. What are the brains. But the the but the report still does not tell us you know who finances will we have found. That miami herald are independent. Investigation is people in custody. Did not have the means financial means to finance this and so this is a job. The investigative judge now has the case. He has to continue the pro. And that's the question whether or not of the fbi h aside from the us weather now. We'll be able to find out who truly finance this very expensive and expansive operation to kill a press claim. How's the prosecutor was going to charge the prime minister area and so he fired the prosecutor and the judge was fired when he did this and under legal experts in haiti the prosecutor was out of his jurisdiction. A case has gone to an investigative judge. A prosecutor cannot melt in parallel investigation. And i think what we saw. This is an example in terms of how this case is starting to become politicized. You'll have judges who are in hiding with fled clerks or flat or part of the initial investigation. This is a concern in terms of whether or not they will allow this process to work the weights supposed to work at a country. That already has issues with us. Judiciary so the prosecutor Based on the letter that we got from the prime minister's office in and when it was dated he was already fired when he did this but legal experts said even if he was not fired he had no legal jurisdiction to try to mount a separate investigation against the prime minister are based on the fact that police were two phone calls from buys you of more than three hours after the president was killed and baio was conversations with a number of other politicians. There's walk calls. That we saw it on there where he was in inconsequential communication with somebody over two hundred ties conversations with his girlfriend. The night up in his apartment is right. There in the same neighborhood is the president. But we haven't heard anything about this other but you did hear about a fire prosecuted trying to go.
NEWS 88.7
"nomura" Discussed on NEWS 88.7
"Live from NPR News in Washington encore of A Coleman. Secretary of state. Antony Blinken is in Cairo for talks with Egyptian leaders agent brokered the cease fire between Palestinian Hamas fighters in Gaza and Israel. Lincoln held meetings in Israel and with Palestinians yesterday. Democratic senators are introducing legislation that would create federal requirements for safe gun storage. As NPR's Barbra's front reports. It's been an uphill battle for any gun measure to get enough support on Capitol Hill to become law. The legislation, known as heathens Law would require gun owners to keep their firearms in a secure storage device if a minor is able to gain access to the weapons without permission. It's named after Evensong, a teenager from Connecticut who was killed by a misfire from a gun that had not been securely stored at a friend's home. In a Senate hearing, Texas Republican Ted Cruz said the bill goes too far in mandating a federal rule where violators will be fined. The Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal pushed back, arguing that just like laws that enforced wearing seat belts, the purpose is to create a safer environment not to punish violators. According to a 2018 Johns Hopkins survey. 54% of all gun owners said they do not keep their firearms securely stored or disabled by a trigger lock. Barbara Sprint. NPR News, one of Japan's leading newspapers, has published an editorial calling for the summer Olympic Games to be canceled in Tokyo. The paper cites the pandemic. NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports. The editorial comes as Japan is under a state of emergency Prime Minister Sudha the editorials, headline reads. Please call off the Olympics this summer. The editorial in the Asahi Shimbun newspaper slams the International Olympic Committee for moving ahead with the Games despite the pandemic and overwhelming public opposition in Japan. The Asahi is the first major Japanese newspaper to call for the games to be scrapped. It's also an Olympic corporate sponsor sponsors they're nervous is Japan stands to lose an estimated $16 billion if the game's air canceled. But as a report by an economist at the Nomura Research Institute, points out if the game's caused more infections and another state of emergency, the cost could be several times that amount. Anthony.
WABE 90.1 FM
"nomura" Discussed on WABE 90.1 FM
"Washington encore of a Coleman. Secretary of state, Antony Blinken is in Cairo for talks with Egyptian leaders. Egypt brokered the cease fire between Palestinian Hamas fighters in Gaza and Israel. Lincoln held meetings in Israel and with Palestinians yesterday. Democratic senators are introducing legislation that would create federal requirements for safe gun storage. As NPR's Barbra's front reports. It's been an uphill battle for any gun measure to get enough support on Capitol Hill to become law. The legislation, known as heathens Law would require gun owners to keep their firearms in a secure storage device if a minor is able to gain access to the weapons without permission. It's named after Evensong, a teenager from Connecticut who was killed by a misfire from a gun that had not been securely stored at a friend's home. In a Senate hearing, Texas Republican Ted Cruz said the bill goes too far in mandating a federal rule where violators will be fined. But Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal pushed back, arguing that just like laws that enforced wearing seat belts, the purpose is to create a safer environment not to punish violators. According to a 2018 Johns Hopkins survey. 54% of all gun owners said they do not keep their firearms securely stored or disabled by a trigger lock. Barbara Sprint. NPR News, one of Japan's leading newspapers, has published an editorial calling for the summer Olympic Games to be canceled in Tokyo. The paper cites the pandemic. NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports. The editorial comes as Japan is under a state of emergency Prime Minister Sudha the editorials, headline reads. Please call off the Olympics this summer. The editorial in the Asahi Shimbun newspaper slams the International Olympic Committee for moving ahead with the Games. Despite the pandemic and overwhelming public opposition in Japan. The Asahi is the first major Japanese newspaper to call for the Games to be scrapped. It's also an Olympic corporate sponsor Sponsors they're nervous is Japan stands to lose an estimated $16 billion if the game's air canceled, But as a report by an economist at the Nomura Research Institute, points out if the game's caused more infections and another state of emergency, the cost could be several times that amount. Anthony.
Bloomberg Opinion
New York's Cuomo to receive International Emmy for virus briefings
"For his once daily televised briefings on the Corona virus pandemic this past spring, the International Academy of Television Arts and Sciences announced yesterday it plans to present the award to Cuomo in a Livestream show on Monday. Nomura Holdings plans to introduce flexible work on a permanent
Odd Lots
Richard Koo Explains Why The Recovery Will Be So Difficult
"Again we'll be speaking with someone who talked to previous I knew who it is this time. It's Richard Koo from Nomura of Balance Sheet Recession Fame. And the last time he came on it was really really interesting discussion. And I think it's going to be absolutely fascinating to see how much of that. Balance Sheet recession idea. If anything at all actually applies to our current situation right so a lot of people myself included really discovered. Richard coups work during the last crisis. He wrote a fantastic book. The Holy Grail of macroeconomics lessons from Japan's great recession is talked a lot about the need for fiscal policy as tool to restore balance sheet health. And of course in this crisis there's been this. Widespread consensus that monetary policy alone is clearly insufficient to address the scale and scope of the downturn to replace all of the laws income from households and businesses. And although we have seen a lot of Fiscal action around the world. There continues to be a lot of debate about whether the tools are right and whether there is sufficient in what kind of recovery. We have so looking forward to talking to Richard. Now Richard Koo. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you for having me here. So let's start Big Picture or let's actually start in the US. We saw a fairly substantial Fiscal Action Perform Surpassed at the end of March. Today is April twenty third and we are expected to see another trench of more grants being made available to businesses to keep workers on payroll plus a few other things expected to pass this week. In your view how a sufficient or insufficient have the policy measures. That you've seen put in place in the US so far been to address the size and scope of this downturn well if we take a snapshot of GDP all these countries United States included. They're probably down quite substantial from what we consider normal levels but this is brought about by this external shock which is this coronavirus and so old. Mary measures like fiscal and monetary policies won't be Majel because just because we have a loose monetary policy doesn't mean supply Jane problems or lockdown problems. Go Away as though this time. Policies will be very specific to help those people who are affected by this corona virus which is airlines and Traveling Industries restaurants so the sexes and so horse and I think USS. John a very good job in coming up with these big policies very quickly. I understand that them. People already receiving payments from the government. Was you see your bank accounts a field with some some money from the government? People will feel that over. The government is is really Learning about myself and the economy and I think that has been very helpful in keeping people from becoming even more desperate or falling into despair. Because if you compare that with what's happening in Japan I am I'm usually am. They talked about in a law but very little payments have be made yet. And when you listen to the people there they say well unofficial start talking all these honesty's but we haven't seen anything yet Compared to that I think United States Germany out doing much better job but whether that's sufficient on that I think we need to know how long this thing is going to go on when the vaccine would be developed or some other ways we can. We are able to contain this. This current a virus and that's a medical question unfortunately not a economic question and so I think we have to be ready to getting more at us. It becomes necessary just to step back for the first second one of the things that I personally like about your balance sheet. Recession Framework is that there's a big focus on the psychological impact of debt crises. And there's this notion that people are so sort of emotionally scarred by the experience that they're afraid to take on debt for years to come. How much of the balance sheet recession framework applies to the current economic crisis? I can see maybe not debt being an issue here but I could see for instance people increasing their savings for years to come after the shock. Right right a lot of people out. There worried that with so much money into the system by the federal government also borrowing money. Massively inflation will be a huge problem once we come out of this recession but when you think about it those people who have savings that is companies and individuals. They probably quite well by me. sustained less damage than those people who didn't have much savings didn't have much retained earnings in companies
Mac OS Ken
Some Apple Card invitees are running into issues with their Apple ID
"While reviews for apple cart have been glowing for the most part. The rollout has not been completely without incident. I'm more ran a piece. Yes i missed tuesday saying some apple cart. Invitees are running into issues with their apple i._d. The cording to the report multiple users are reporting that when they they received their invitation for the apple card they're being asked by apple for proper email associated with the apple i._d. Even though they already provided it one rather than user john james jacoby says he put himself in for an invitation when it arrived the email he provided didn't match an apple i._d. However he says he has used that apple i._d. With the same email for nearly ten years john james jacoby his name is nearly my name to meanwhile. I'm more writer. Christine romero chan has had a similar issue though in her case she knows what went wrong. She says i gave them a different email. That isn't associated with my apple i._d. That was my mistake weird. Everyone else is getting the the same email though i just reentered with my apple i._d. I'm more says reentering with a proper email is easy to do though the side figures. It'll delay your apple cart invitation by a couple of days. There's a third issue mentioned in the eye more piece though may be the same thing that happened to j. j. jacoby quoting. I more again some users who did enter the proper apple i._d. Have been asked to provide it again by the same email response. If you receive one of these e mails from apple just provide your apple i._d. Again it's an issue. Many users have reported and apple is aware of it. It should not preclude you from getting getting an apple card early invitations apple cart or a u._s. Only thing right now even if you did get an email someplace else. The separate piece on i'm more from wednesday's says yeah. That's the thing that's happening. Citing a report from apple and cider the says apple users from countries trees outside of the u._s. Including canada england and france are receiving apple card invitations. Why is it happening. Only only apple knows they gotta figure. They don't actually know yet otherwise it wouldn't be happening. Apple is said to be aware of the various invitation issues news and is believed to be working on fixes goldman. Sachs obviously thinks apple card is a good idea there the bank backing it but some of goldman's compatriot's or questioning the decision c._n._b._c. had nomura analysts led by bill carr kaci issuing a note on the move on wednesday. It's the things customers like that seemed to have him concerned. That's things like the lack of fees the industry's lowest interest rate range for comparable cards and the mandate to approve as many iphone users as possible to koch. She's way of thinking the apple cart portfolio may generate lower revenues and face higher loss content relative to the industry average all of that plus the three hundred fifty dollars nomura things goldman is spending to acquire each new user might be seen as a calculated risk. If all goes well goldman will start to break even on each customer after four years according to c._n._b._c. but what if something goes wrong between now and then markets were shaken and stirred wednesday by son to economic recession the peace as bank bank stocks were hammered wednesday on the prospect of rising loan losses and tighter profit margins loan losses could come from charge offs which wikipedia defines as decision by a creditor that amount of debt is unlikely to be collected nomura indicates that goldman's product highly sensitive to rising net charge offs if the economy goes into recession and charge offs go as high as eight percent goldman will start losing money on apple card then there's goldman's men's lack of experience according kaci as a new entrant goldman sachs did not have the historical data or experience that lenders obtain when underwriting through a credit read it cycle by definition credit businesses are cyclical and we would expect goldman sachs to face its fair share volatility in the next recession
CNBC's Fast Money
Hong Kong Stocks Retreat Further as Protest Fallout Deepens
"Hong kong based milka resorts lost a percent today and m._g._m. Lost one and a half percent but over three months it's actually up eleven percent of course it has the least amount of exposure to and reliance on it's macau revenues hong kong a major port of entry for mccowan. A summer of protests is having an impact last week. We heard wind ceo. Mathematics on the earnings call blink cancellation of hundreds of flights for some of the softness in that v._i._p. Segment and that was before the entire shutdown of the airport gaming analyst. I harry curtis at nomura instant rights today while the protests in hong kong and the closing of the hong kong airport will likely have a negative near term impact on visitation tation to macau the impact should be transitory and visitation should recover once the airport reopens but of course trade tensions and a weakening in chinese economy are also creating headwinds
0 Show
Scott Morrison, Nomura Holdings And Australia discussed on 0 Show
"Australia's center, right? Government is getting straight back to business after it surprise election victory pledging to pass signature tax cuts to shore up a slowing. Economy. Prime minister Scott Morrison's, liberal, national coalition said it aimed to deliver tax relief for about half of Australia's twenty five million people when parliament reconvenes the wind by Morrison and the liberal national coalition means the Australian dollar is set to strengthen against the US dollar. Andrew Ticehurst rate strategist at Nomura Holdings says business sentiment is expected to
Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe
Japan's Nomura to cut $1 billion costs to revive wholesale business, shut branches
"So so also it's worth noting that the. Most directive send tones of cutting race in Asia. And so I to I Bank in Asia just cartridge twice this year. And so mainly two reasons down in growth and inflation largely meeting under control. Yes makes sense. So in terms of where we go from here all more rate cuts expected and I ask because interestingly if you look at the ten year yield where actually
Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend
Brexit: The incurable British headache that won't go away
"Marcus bulb. The road to next week's votes has been rocky for Theresa May. And the writing on the wall suggests that parliament will reject the prime minister's Brexit agreement with the EU as questions on our asked about what might happen. Next lawmakers all seen squeezing maze. Government in a moment. We'll talk about the market implications. But let's start with politics and Brexit editor Emma Ross Thomas. Hi there, Emma. So votes was actually sheduled last month writes in December. But Swedes may pulled it when it seemed obvious that she would lose might happen again much pulled his vote. Again, I suppose anything is possible. But it would be a very bad look indeed for may if she pulled she pulled it in December acknowledging that there were problems and she. Sort of had had a plan to deal with that. Which was to go to Brussels and tried to seek some assurance says. Now, she hasn't taught she sought any assurances so far anyway, e-, you officials say that perhaps they might might center talked about seeking those assurances she has an ear officials say they might send a letter. But in the either side thing that letter will will do the trick. She has also offered a few concessions again not enough. But she said that lawmakers will have a greater role in the implementation of this backstop toxic bit of the accord that nobody likes, but I think it'd be very unlikely for to pull it again, probably the strategy. She has to put the deal to lawmakers take the defeat and then go and seek some more concessions for from Brussels. And put the vote by parliament has been much talk about what Theresa May's plan B might be. Is that it then? Well, nobody really knows what resumes plan beers. That's been one of the interesting things. The government has said that they will come back swiftly to parliament. And indeed parliament is now forcing them to come back very swiftly with the plan. B? But it's not clear yet. What that will be almost certainly she will try to to ring something else from the EU EU as they do not want to reopen. The withdrawal deal. Let's bring in pull ups and into the compensation Imia managing editor for markets. Great. How you here as well poll? So a defeat for Theresa May it's seen as a given almost at this stage has not been priced in as well. I yeah. Two great takes. Then I think that that is now in the price in the expectation. Interestingly though, I think that there's a difference in the market now compared with where we were last time around, and that is the as Emma was saying, the the likelihood of the UK crashing out with a no deal. At the end of this process is is being more or less ruled out by the market as it were. So if you look in the options, Marcus, for example, the skew the bias the balance of risks between people betting on a week pound people betting on a stronger pound is that she shifted from people protecting against the over the possibility that the setting guy crushing lower to now people more pricing in the possibility of some upside I've the next couple of weeks in surveys one was done by NoMura. They found that if the deals rejected the pound will still probably weaken, but any by which is a long way from doomsday scenarios that people were talking about a full. And that speaks to this idea that the market is no longer really expecting also v of NATO, but more as Emma was saying factoring in the possibility of a delay or some next step in this process is that what's currently priced in essentially that are being delayed two to article fifty the United Kingdom possibly. Not leaving the European Union on the twenty ninth of March as Theresa May has always been talking about. Yeah. I mean, let's put it this way. Sending is by no means strong at the moment. It is still at is still historically pretty weak levels. So we'll be priced in full right now is some kind of continuing muddle through more unsaid since a, you know, not the kind of economic recovery that some real certainty of some kind of a Brexit deal. Could do not that kind of thing that there is a economic expansion. Just waiting to happen. If the Bank of England is waiting to be able to raise rates on a Brexit deal market isn't pricing in the idea that that's actually going to happen. The design the market is is not pricing in the the idea that the pound is going to weaken considerably from here. Emma, just back to you for for one quick question. That's probably quite difficult to answer who decides what happens next as a very good question. Because I think one of the things that's been emerging in recent weeks is that it won't necessarily be Theresa May who decides on the way forward as I said earlier has strategy has. Already been undermined by parliament parliament is increasingly assertive. A cabinet is divided on the way ahead, but increasingly their voices in her cabinet coming out to making clear. Dale people like amber Rudd in the cabinet have come out and said, you know, we need to work across the chain. But to find some kind of compromise will parliament, take control will group within her cabinet taken troll. It's not clear yet. But what is to is that the the weakness that has characterized Theresa May's last year or so in power is only becoming more accentuated? So the endgame ahead of Brexit. If it even happens, we'll be very
A Closer Look with Arthur Levitt
One tweet cost Elon Musk his chairman job at Tesla and led to a $40M fine
"Bloomberg has learned that the securities and Exchange Commission has reached a settlement with tesla. CEO Elon Musk in connection with those fraud charges. They settlement requires musk to step down as chairman of tesla for three years analyst Rome, meet Shah of NoMura Instinet spoke with us about tesla and Elon Musk before the announcement of the settlement was made by thinking alon- is everything. I mean, he built this company from the ground up. He's in charge of all the product groups engineering design, he's critical to their fundraising capabilities without Elon Musk. I don't think the company can survive on a standalone
Bloomberg Best
Amazon earnings on cloud nine
"I'm Doug krizner at Bloomberg world headquarters in New York let's check this hour's top business stories and, the markets. Earnings from Amazon crushed relative to estimates EPS of two dollars nine cents the estimate was for to forty nine and the company forecast more of the same for the current period shares in Amazon were up by more than three, percent, in late US trading after the, bell Intel, reported earnings above estimates however revenue for the company's data center business disappointed some and the stock was down by, more than five and a half percent in late New York trading earlier many of the semiconductor shares traded higher. Given strong results from two industry heavyweights Zeilinger posted first-quarter revenue above expectations while the company also. Boosted its annual guidance, though shares were up nine and, a half percent at the same time Advanced Micro Devices rallied after reporting its best quarterly profit in seven years shares were up fourteen percent and we had to Philadelphia Semi-conductors index up nearly two percent Conaco Philip says. Steel tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are driving a. Fairly significant increase in cost the company says prices for steel used in pipes valves fittings and other equipment are up, twenty-six percent. In the US since the beginning of the year in the Tokyo session Nomura Holdings is down by more than five percent this after the company reported profit plunged ninety one percent no Morris wholesale business lost money thanks to a, slump, in fixed income trading while the, domestic retail, operation lost steam we check markets every fifteen minutes here on Bloomberg Japanese equities are off their session highs given, relative strength in the yen vis-a-vis the dollar dollar yen one ten ninety eight the Nikkei is up less than. One tenth of one percent the kospi down two tenths of one percent hang sang is down. Six tenths of one, percents Shanghai composite he's off one, half of one percent global news twenty four hours a day on air and a tick tock One thousand nine hundred seventy two young entrepreneur named Richard Branson turned his mail order record business into, a brick and mortar store which. He named virgin records today.
Meet the Press
G20 calls for greater dialogue on trade tensions
"A whole foods in California I'm Mike. Moore And I'm Mark mills in the Bloomberg radio newsroom the world's top finance chiefs warned that trade tensions threaten global growth as, the engines of. Leading academies fall out of sync global growth remains robust in many emerging market countries are. Better prepared to face crises but risks to the world economy have increased according to g twenty, finance ministers and central bankers in a statement. Issued at the end of, a two-day summit in Buenos Aires trade. Tensions increased last week with President Trump's threat to slap import tariffs on, five hundred billion dollars. Worth, of Chinese, goods according to Gary Dugan of NoMura wealth advisors in Dubai, is such an escalation of the rhetoric that we've seen. And that's what the g twenty is fearing today, Fiat Chrysler has named Mike Manley fifty four year old Britain. As its new CEO succeeding Sergio Marchi Yoni the automotive. Icon who's been forced, to relinquish the post due to ill-health Manley has, been. Head of Fiat Chrysler Jeep brand since two thousand nine that's the name plate that's key. To the company's plan to double prophets in the next five years. To top oil.
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
Asian equities show light gains despite trade war jitters
"Radio well asian equities are showing light gains today even with the possibility of a trade war looming the nikkei is up forty points that's a gain of two tenths of one percent very strong gains in australia with the essex two hundred up one point one percent new zealand modestly higher and i mentioned a moment ago the kospi is slipping a little this morning let's get right up to beijing and get some of the details on what we can expect from the china markets today with bloomberg's emma o'brien good morning brian index teaches to the chinese market trading cautiously with the trade flight in the news again the trump administration is reported to be honing that tariff list too focused on the cutting edge technologies that china is trying to gain an advantage in that means tech manufacturer stocks will be in focus here today along with companies like afc technologies and lenovo computers nomura is keen on chinese property shares the saying developers shemale cc and future land could post record sales in june brian thanks very much yes the contracts are active now they've moved down from up the hang seng index futures down about two tenths of one percent and the footsie china fifties in singapore also down about two tenths of one percent so we'll keep a close eye on this there was some positive news if you're looking for cooperation between the us and china at least if you believe the story in the south china morning post and that is the chinese regulators have reportedly approved qualcomm zach an connects xp semiconductors investors seemed to believe it at xp gained as much as ten point seven percent in the post market the yield on the ten year is at two point nine two percent and the oil price just under sixty seven dollars a barrel let's get to san francisco ed baxter has the top news stories all right bryan thank you white house says it resumed tails what was talked about at the singapore summit at some point soon the us secretary of state mike pompeo after meeting with south korea japan and china says all three say that sanctions must remain on north korea until significant denuclearization takes place pompeo even said today complete use the word complete afp report a joint south korea us military drills have been halted us inspector general's probe and the.
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
Dow ends nearly 400 points lower as Italy’s political turmoil roils global markets
"In new york we're seeing some risk on the in the pac rim in early trading in about oh forty three minutes from now we're going to get the markets in hongkong shanghai and shenzhen up and running the nikkei is up four tenths of one percent in spite of the fact that we're seeing a much stronger yen where the dollar is concerned one eight fifty eight in the dollaryen so the is higher against the dollar by about three tenths of one percents the dollar kind of stable now after sliding more than one half of one percent in the new york session the big gainer was the euro we are trading a dollar sixteen fifty nine in the euro during new york trading the euro was up more than one percent against the dollar after the situation in italy showed signs of maybe the worst being at least passed us in the near term the italian president trying to avoid another potentially destabilising election and we're also talking about a successful auction of italian bonds us ten year treasury right now in the tokyo session giving back about one and a half basis points where to eighty four we were just under two eighty five in the new york session after that big day yesterday in which yields fell about fifteen basis points during the new york trade right now want to get you to beijing bring in bloomberg's emma o'brien she's going to be looking at what's likely to happen on the mainland and in hong kong good morning emma hi judy official manufacturing today here in china with expectations for the reading to stay wedged at fifty one point four still an expansion territory that along with the abating in italian was could both to the stock market which sold of quite strongly today on those concerns and the renewed trade tensions between beijing and washington when it comes to individual stocks hong kong listed software company king soft could see support morgan stanley says any correction in the shares are buying opportunity as i have a strong computer gaming pipeline meanwhile clothing make crystal international was downgraded by nomura doug from beijing we go to san francisco ed baxter is in the bloomberg nine sixty newsroom with the latest eddie.