17 Burst results for "Nile Ferguson"

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

Between The Lines

05:49 min | 2 weeks ago

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

"I think to argue that. We're not in something that looks a lot like a cold war with china. Neil as you wrote recently in the uk spectacular story given all this you'd expect us leaders would do their utmost to distinguish the liberal free market system from that of communist china. But you'll point in the spectator is administration. The baden administration at times seems to be following in china's footsteps. How this is a curious phenomenon. The we've seen in the past the tendency of of a free society to stop becoming a little like it's to taliban enemy in the course of a rivalry that the first time this really struck me was when people started frantically saying that we need a central bank digital currency in the united states because the chinese have got one and then i realized that lockdowns had been in many ways modeled on what china had don nafta january twenty third and in its own Its own country. And and the more i look the more i realized that curious. Kind of Imitation complex is developing least in some quarters belief belief that that china handle this crisis so well that we should regard the china multiple something worthy of imitation. And you probably encounter this australia to the china. The china envy syndrome people who go to shanghai and come back and say i've seen the future and it works. I will never be able to compete. With china if we have high speed railways and And and the same kind of surveillance system that they increasingly a deploying throughout the cities in my view is this is entirely the wrong way to think. Hit by our rivalry with with china. We call possibly go down the road of simply imitating what they do if we do that. What's what's the point. I mean what's the difference between a surveillance state run by season ping and one that is in effect run by by the big tech companies in silicon valley. I think we need to be reminding ourselves why it is. The a one party system like china's is not desirable and the answer. And make this point dume. Is that the thing that caused the most excess mortality in the twentieth century without question was to talibanism and the reason it caused so much damage whether you look at stolid hit loma was taliban regime's when it comes to the crunch or amazingly wasteful of life And so the last thing you wanna do in competing with china is to start building your own version of totalitarianism at home. We need to emphasize individual liberty. Yes but notwithstanding all those points are you sugar. Coating america's very real problems is the american empire unraveling. I'm of the view that the american empire certain frailties that make it different from say the british empire of the nineteenth and early twentieth century. It doesn't have a large number of people who want to go and spend large amounts of their lives in places like iraq and afghanistan. It does of fiscal problem. And there's also the fact that the american public has a kind of attention deficit disorder when it comes to foreign conflicts. But i'm pretty sure that the weaknesses are internal rather the next. In other words i definitely. Us is going to lose a war with china or for that matter with russia. I think the problems that trouble me about the united states and twenty twenty one aren't tunnel and ultimately use can see when you look around you more and more parts of the american system being run by people don't seem that committed to individual freedom a toll final question. What is all this main for australia. Been to our shores many times you will know that china is our largest tripod..

Neil shanghai afghanistan iraq australia twentieth century uk january twenty third silicon valley first time one party china nineteenth and early twentieth central bank one united states russia stolid america baden
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

Between The Lines

02:53 min | 2 weeks ago

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

"The second volume of his biography is indeed my next book and should be out in a couple of years time to coincide. I hope with his one hundredth birthday as you can imagine. The relationship with china is pretty central to that. I'll just to say that. Because this july july marks fifty years since kissinger's secret visit to china that of course set the scene for his boss president richard nixon's to communist china in early nodding sydney. To now you just mentioned kissinger views on china. He recently remarked. Neil that this is the biggest problem for the world. This is kissinger quote because if we can't solve us. China relations than the risk. Is that all over. The world economy cole will will develop between china and the united states. The question he neely's why are we witnessing a new cold war which by the way the pandemic. You've argued has mealy intensified. But i asked pakistan both at a conference in beijing late twenty nineteen if we weren't a new cold war which i'd been arguing for some time and his reply was wearing the foothills of a cold war that was twenty. Nineteen i think in twenty twenty we got out of the foothills into some of the higher slopes because the relationship between the us and china got lot worse last year. Not least because of the way in which the chinese handle the initial outbreak in and then debate continue to stand in the way of a clear investigation as to will happen. But i think also the chinese in their attempts to sort of push back against the criticism. They faced embarked on an extremely. Ill advised by of wolf warrior. Diplomacy that ended up alienating more people than persuaded. I'm not talking just about americans. I'm talking also about europeans sentiment on china and australians especially nails up well i think straightens led the way here in many ways. When i started talking about a new cold war the audience that was most receptive back in twenty. Eighteen was ustralian because it was already obvious to many people in australia. Joining the government. The that china was engaged in an extremely aggressive combination of of technological conflicts espionage influence operations plus the standard geopolitical moves like building airstrips on islands in the south china sea. So australia be paying closer attention to this than americans and it really took of old people. Donald trump to waken americans up. And i think now sentiment has shifted right across the western world and not the western world. Think of the way in which. India has become a great deal. More open to the idea of strategic partnership with With the us australia and japan and the so-called quad so the geopolitics of this pandemic of beaten have been remarkable. A now. it's harder and harder..

Donald trump australia Neil beijing last year richard nixon second volume fifty years one hundredth birthday Eighteen sydney both late twenty nineteen kissinger India south china ustralian president Nineteen war
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

Between The Lines

03:33 min | 2 weeks ago

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

"My guess is neil ferguson author of doom now talking about predicting crosses across seas one aspect of the covered pandemic also seems cle- and painfully saw neil for those of us who believe that true prosperity and liberty can only really come with a small state that sticks to the basics of governments. I'm referring to the excessive increases in public spending that most governments in the developed world chose to make to fought the virus. They clearly show signs of becoming permanent. Boris johnson's budget a few months ago. The recent australian budget the baden budgets these massive spending stimulus. How worried should we be that. Western governments are borrowing at astronomical levels and increasing the size and the skype of the state. Well we should be worried. That emergency measures that were appropriate really to offset the impact of lockdowns being continued. Long after the worst. The pandemic's over. I was supportive of what was done. in the us the uk. Australia in the thick of the crisis. If you tell people that they can't work and at home what are you gonna do. They come subsist on airs on points is now becoming permanent as the pandemic stock wine. That's the problem. And the biden administration the worst offender here because the scale of the spending envisaged by the bill. The biden administration's brought forward this year. Sorry ryan five even six trillion dollars. Now this is on an economy. That's already rapidly recovering because mainly vaccination the fact that the pandemic is receding so you'll really pouring kerosene on the barbecue at this point and we should be worried for two reasons one in the short run. It's very likely to be inflationary. In fact ready is inflationary. We can see that the second reason is that if this expansion of government becomes permanence i think it ultimately will have negative impacts or on growth so we confusing an emergency measure with something that is becoming a permanent fixture and that is going to be costly mistake where repeating some mistakes of the past. It was a problem in the twentieth century that after world wars it was hard to roll back. The expenditures and taxes to peacetime levels will. This is very similar. I think it's going to be hard because part of the problem is intellectual. We've allowed ideas. Like universal basic income and the modern monetary theory to become mainstream and in fact. Those ideas are up a poorly supported in economics literature especially in the way that the being implemented today. We we ran this experiment. Once before we we thought in the nineteen sixties the canes have shown us a wonderful way of maintaining full employment. You just had served spend spend spend that the came off the dock seen many countries in the sixties. And that's the reason we add the inflationary problems of the nineteen seventies which then had to get fixed very painfully in the nineteen eighties. Now if there's one thing doom is trying to do is to say you could learn from history here people and if you want to rerun those decades fine by all means but don't be surprised if you go from the supposedly roaring twenties quite quickly into into a stagflation re period and the by the way. I don't think it'll take ten years to get into that situation. At the rate we're going neil ferguson's other bestselling books include kissinger nineteen twenty three to nineteen sixty eight..

neil ferguson ten years Boris johnson six trillion dollars twentieth century nineteen seventies two reasons second reason uk sixties today nineteen sixties this year nineteen eighties one thing Australia skype world wars one one aspect
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

Between The Lines

03:55 min | 2 weeks ago

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

"The quarantining of super spreaders as people who interact with far more people and must therefore applying outsize role in spreading the disease but in han sought if countries in march april. My last year did not go into lockdown. Wouldn't the cross spain a lot worse. Yes there's no question that. By mid march to take one example set being debated right now the uk had to do something pretty drastic to stop the spread. The counterfactual that the alternative strategy that would have been preferable would have been to act as the taiwanese and south koreans did early get testing up and running very rapidly and then use contact tracing trying to identify the infected and the potential super spreaders. So we blew all that in europe and we blew a latin in the americas by mid march. It clearly was too late to do that kind of thing. we did. A lot of sydney's stuff that probably really didn't make much of a positive difference and may have done on balanced harm for example. I think it was a major a state to have the schools closed as long as they have been in california. Basically an entire school year has been lost. Which has been extremely hard on poor kids who who don't necessarily have the space and the technology to study remotely. I saw all things considered i. We now better off at predicting the next disaster than we were. Say you know. We twenty twenty the key point about disasters. It's not predictable the disasters in history whether the man-made or natural if that distinctions even meaningful don't follow any kind of pattern allows you to predict them and that's a very very major problem for us as a species because we love to predict things in truth. You can't really see the next big earthquake in california coming and you can't really know how big the wildfire problem will be in australia. Knicks knicks time. That season comes. All you can do is be quick on the draw when a disaster begins. That's the most important takeaway from the book really. It's it's better to be broadly paranoid. That is to say be aware of all the different things that are out to get you from pandemics to wildfires earthquakes to hostile power and be ready to react quickly when you see the first signs of danger. Unfortunately we learning that lesson. I think we'll actually continue to repeat the mistake of meticulously preparing for the wrong crisis and and be caught out just as we were In early twenty twenty by this this new virus the thing about what happened was on paper. The united states in the united kingdom were the two best prepared countries for public health emergency in the world. That was the finding of twenty nine thousand nine survey that the economist intelligence unit published an truth that these these preparations existed on paper but would really worthless when the rubber hit the road. This is a point that dominic cummings has been making. He was a key advisor to boris johnson. Last year subsequently they fell out and cummings is critique of what happened last year in london to be is very persuasive that the bureaucracy had a plan but the plan was rubbish and they took far too long to realize that i mean the uk had essentially open borders for months. So the lesson is you'll bureaucracy will want a have a very detailed preparedness plan for whichever disaster they Focused on and whatever. The disaster is strikes next. I fully expect the same kind of pathologies to reveal themselves unless we radically rethink the way we do. Think about.

australia london europe march april mid march california Last year americas twenty last year united kingdom boris johnson twenty nine thousand nine one example first signs sydney two best prepared countries twenty twenty latin Knicks knicks
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

Between The Lines

02:22 min | 2 weeks ago

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

"Just the pandemic that's exposed this problem. The financial crisis did it too. And so did hurricane katrina and so if you go all the way back did nine eleven. We have a fundamental problem and is confined to the united states that we are getting less nimble in our response to disaster and we continue to delude ourselves that we have disaster preparedness because the bureaucracy has a thirty six page plan that is not the. That's not real preparedness that pseudo preparedness on. Iran is between the lines with tom. Switzerland neil ferguson is author of the politics of catastrophes published by penguin. Press now neil you. I spoke and publicly about the rausing probability of a global pandemic long before most western journalists. So this is light. January twenty twenty. The deitz are important. Now you would traveling. Cg got sick. We were superspreader. I'll never know if. I actually had a covert in that. I if i did then i may well have been a superspreader because i certainly traveled enough and so enough people in that time and i i wanted to admit that at the beginning of the book tillis straight a really important point in the face of disaster even when we kind of know the situation's not good. Our initial response is denial. I didn't really want to face the possibility that i might have this thing. An rather than take precautionary approach and say. I'll play safe. Stick stay home. I did not do that. This is a problem that i think is innately human. We at i don't wanna face it then quite often when we can't escape it any longer we panic never got to the panic stage exactly but i do remember at the end of february saying to my wife up. We're leaving california. And we're going to the most remote place. I can think of in in montana. We'll spend the pandemic there because you wanna be in a very thinly populated place in time of plague. So i suppose. I did switch from from complacency to panic like lots of people one of the concluding listens for the pandemic yusei. Neil is that lockdowns do great economic damage and i should be avoided in favor of more precisely targeted measures among them..

california January twenty twenty neil ferguson Neil neil tom montana thirty six page Switzerland united end of february katrina of penguin nine eleven one yusei Iran tillis
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

Between The Lines

03:49 min | 2 weeks ago

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

"To say that. The pandemic disproportionate home in countries with populist rulers least because donald trump and jibal scenario not to mention boris johnson or andrew. Mody made mistakes. And the critics in the media. Didn't hang out and pointing those out. But i think there are two points that needs to be made before we conclude that the key to avoiding future disaster is not so elect populists. The first is that there were plenty of countries that did just as badly if not worse than those countries and that they didn't have populist as belgium for example did not know nor did easily and just as badly in twenty twenty is the uk and there are other countries in in latin america that have done worse than brazil. Peru for example. And it's it's hard to claim that there's a clear. Correlation between having a populist leader in having really high excess mortality. That doesn't seem to work the other thing that's really important. And this is the broad humi- of doom is that when you look closely at disasters. Although it's very tempting to blame the person at the top usually the mountain top that can distract you from the real points of failure because in reality. Although trump made a great many mistakes in twenty twenty and list the mole. And i'm not sparing in my criticism. The failures did not happen in the oval office. The real failures were the centers for disease. Control completely screwed up testing. There was no serious effort by big tech to make contact tracing parts of the the us response and there was a really woeful lack of effective isolation of infected people in protection of vulnerable. These things that were done right in. Taiwan and south korea to a large extent in australia new zealand And so blame those failures of donald trump. is i think to misunderstand. The way government works ultimately does the public health bureaucracy. It's their job to coal. A pandemic and to take the right actions and unfortunately the public health bureaucracy in most western countries did very poorly if we say to ourselves and let me put it this way tom. A joe biden had been president. A year early. None of this would have happened. We wouldn't have had excess mortality than we're kidding ourselves. Because i think even though trump made some difference in the margin in practice whoever was president i think the public health bureaucracy would have done quite poorly and we'd have been looking at significant excess mortality. So we can't be naive about this much as one wants to criticize populace when they make mistakes if we draw the wrong conclusion from this. The knicks disaster will go just as badly because there's something much more profound and systemic. It work here. i think so. All things considered blind the health department's bogged down in bureaucracy. That's more important in explaining this crisis than the populist. I think that's right. Because explains why so many countries regardless of whether they had populist leaders not did badly and if you want further evidence up just ask. Joe biden's chief of staff ron plane in two thousand and nineteen claim admitted that if if in two thousand nine swine flu had been as bad as covert in terms of its infection fatality rate than the. Us would have had just as big a disaster on its hands. It's had in the last year and that was under president obama. I think everybody knows who's really thought seriously about this that there's a problem with the way the public health bureaucracy and the bureaucracy reacts to disaster. It's not that they don't have pandemic preparedness plans. They have them up the wazoo. I mean they have any number of pandemic preparedness plans in there any number of agencies that can show you the powerpoint deck that went with it. It's just that went. Actual pandemic happened. None of these plans works. And that's not the first time we've seen this and this is a really important argument that i make in doom..

Joe biden andrew donald trump australia boris johnson jibal trump Taiwan last year south korea two points first latin america tom two thousand uk brazil obama first time joe biden
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

Between The Lines

05:41 min | 2 weeks ago

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Between The Lines

"Purposes of history is to use the time between events and the moment when those events are recalled to reflect on what those events really meant. Well it's probably still too early to draw. Serious conclusions about the political and economic consequences of the covid pandemic. However as our guest today makes cle- we can still place the pandemic in the broadest possible context in order to gain a proper perspective on it. That's the mark of a true historian. Nail ferguson. he's one of the world's leading public intellectuals. His new book is cold doom. The politics of catastrophe is published by penguin. Press and available in all good bookstores across australia. Now doom has been widely reviewed in the t the economist the guardian the new york times the washington post just recently in the australian and extracts have a paid in the wall street journal now new as many of you not out now is a historian and a senior fellow at the hoover institution at stanford university california. He's been a guest on this program several times and it's wonderful to welcome him back to between the lines get. I knew. It's very good to be with you again. Some summarize succinctly or lightest faces dumas's a general history of catastrophe which i felt might come in handy. Is we try to navigate all way through the covid nineteen pandemic which is after all not over and basic argument. is that old disasters. Even the ones we coal natural disasters are some level made in other words. If a novel pathogen tons up it doesn't hit each society equally hard. Some think of taiwan. Do really well against it and some think of the. Us brazil do really badly and it's the same virus Even if it does throw up new variants so that illustrates a general point. That even those things that seem like natural disasters ultimately become disastrous in large measure according to human decision making even a volcanic eruptions only disastrous. If you decided to build a bloody great city right next to the volcano and then rebuild it after. The volcano had erupted once. That's the broad arguments. And i think it helps to understand the politics of catastrophe because of course there will be other disasters. History is basically one dam disaster after another well talking about disasters seeking historical analogies. Full these chronic ours. The conventional wisdom refers more often than not to the spanish influenza of a century ago. So this is nineteen eighteen. Nineteen nineteen yusei. This is quite intriguing. A bitter analogy is the pandemic of fifty seven fifty eight which.

australia Nail ferguson today fifty seven fifty eight a century ago california taiwan spanish stanford university brazil nineteen eighteen new york one dam disaster one each society street australian The politics of catastrophe penguin Nineteen nineteen yusei
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

Talking Politics

01:46 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

"We'll be talking about england. Join us for all that. My name is david runciman. And we've been talking policy and yet the resources capability to deter china. Hang on this is this is like a little. Oh version of liz. This is the disaster. That i knew before me. I want to throw them boldly as it is the great. The moment was in the car alarm. Went off at an issue caught up. I'm going to have to let me try. And could you please. The court cast powers. The world's best podcasts. Here's a new season. And we recommend robert durst allegedly murdered people over the course of nearly four decades according to prosecutor. john lewis. Kicks the murder of morris black and the murder of kathie durst for inextricably woven into the murder of susan firm instead of telling you the narrative behind major trial. After it's finished we're going to present this story surrounding trial for the murder of susan burning as it is happening. I know she asked you for money. What will the jury decide. We're going to find out together. Jury duty the trial of robert durst season two from crime story media and a cast half months..

john lewis david runciman half months morris black robert season two england kathie durst liz robert durst china four decades susan
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

Talking Politics

04:33 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

"So how then should we think about the risk of a war between the united states and china because for all the reasons you said we find that really difficult the scale of it on some level the unlikeliness of it but of course it's not that unlikely. And if it goes from coal to halt its apocalyptic on some scenarios and yet petitions tight this kind of thing seriously and we do tend to think that it's in that power to decide how should imaginatively. How should we be thinking about that. Prospective the next few decades a war is a much more and present danger than climate. Change a major war a big war. Us china type. War would be far immediately disruptive than the relatively slow burning problem of climate change. And we're much closer to such a war. And i think most people appreciate. I spent a lot of my career. Studying wars including the two biggest was and the reason was broke out in nineteen fourteen and nineteen thirty nine. the key reason was the dominant power. Which in those days was the british empire failed to deter the rising power germany from taking a major strategic risk. We talk the talk. But we really won't prepared to walk the walk in terms of conscription before nineteen fourteen rearmament before nineteen thirty nine and i think the united states is well positioned to make the same mistake with china its commitments vogel and otherwise aw global. It has a commitment to taiwan which has become more explicit on the trump anti biden administrations. But its capability of deterring china compared with say the nineteen ninety s has diminished drastically because of china's increased economic and military capability. You could sink a us aircraft carrier with a chinese missile. If you wanted to now and so there's a really serious risk that the us gets us into a position rather like britain nineteen fourteen the chinese decide. They don't really up to this. We can risk it. We can invade. Taiwan the americans say hang on we actually taught let that happen and therefore like britain in nineteen forty and they start from the weak position of having to scramble to recover lost ground. And you end up in a really big war. The people who know about this stuff. Like jim steve. Readers who has a new book is about say that in that scenario that would have to be american bombing of chinese mainland targets to disabled china's air capabilities if that happened expectation as you would likely escalate to nuclear weapons quite quickly. So that's that's a real imminent disaster. Which i think could happen if there is going to be a crisis over. Taiwan could happen next year. Could happen after the the winter olympics in beijing and the question will be does. The biden administration do a great many democratic administrations. Have done all the way back. To woodrow wilson come in with a bowl domestic agenda and end up in a really big war. Remember that happens also to roosevelt's it happened to truman. It happened to kennedy johnson in vietnam or does the by station essentially blink and if you'll sectors states called blinken the headline writers are waiting. And simply say okay. China you on number one in the indo pacific and you can have taiwan without a fight. That's a very imminent disaster scenario in my mind. Is that the thing you think. We should be currently most worried. Yes wars particularly wars involving one party states were the biggest cause of disaster in the twentieth century. They really were bigger than pandemics. And if we don't careful weekend to repeat those mistakes and still in my view. It salsa great allison's view in his book which he called destined for war when published several years ago. And i remember saying grandma you show you want to call it that but he was right. He was right that we were heading for one of those classic incumbent versus rising collisions. And that i think is is really a scary prospect in climate change. Though i know was supposed to think the climate changes the bhagwan neil ferguson book is out. now it's cooled doom. The politics of catastrophe gets it. Wherever you get your books from independent booksellers coming up talking politics. I'm going to be talking to another historian. Linda colley about different kind of history. The fascinating history of written constitutions and we have one more episode the final episode in our series about the future of the union of the united kingdom. The big one when we haven't talked about yet.

vietnam jim steve next year indo pacific twentieth century allison beijing kennedy johnson trump Linda colley roosevelt woodrow wilson one more episode winter olympics truman several years ago nineteen fourteen two biggest next few decades germany
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

Talking Politics

07:56 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

"At yellowstone or all somewhere else on a scale that we haven't seen during human history. That wouldn't be an awful lot that we could do about it. We certainly wouldn't be talking about manmade climate change anymore because volcanic made climate change would be entirely dominant one of the things that striking about history of disaster in human history is that we haven't had any big ones. I mean asteroids just missed us when that sense quite lucky species so far so there are clearly some disasters about which you can do nothing. If they would've southern change in sunspot activity of the attack happened in history we would be in no position to do much about it. What we can do with our scientific is these make preparations for the eventualities suddenly increased volcanic activity. What strikes me off for that matter disasters earthquake quake. I'm struck by the fact that prompting that well prepared for these scenarios. I say probably because or can't really be sure until the point of contact but my sense is that if the world be a really big earthquake where i'm living here in california of the so we haven't seen in more than a century that would be auto pandemonium and the problem of fires. That's already very serious. You because of all the combustible would would be probably as bad as the immediate impact of the earthquake. We've only just created an alert system. A neat in the last week or so that will send all californians a text message if there's reason to believe the big one has happened so my instinct is that we probably about as well prepared for that disastrous scenario as we were for covid nineteen. But you're right clearly. There's a category of super disaster which is truly truly exults. Truly something that we can't be expected on the path to deal with well and of course in abyan invation would come into the catholic. Haven't had one of those. But i suppose it can't be ruled as in todd. I'm pretty sure. What does it say about us that we do build settlements on foot. Lines on the edge of volcanoes mitzvah. It's a striking feature of the human psyche. The human condition that we do this or we complacent we is it about the paulo thing that origination are well geared towards mid level events. That should we struggle with things that only happen very very rarely but when they do they're absolutely disastrous and also planning to get around that in politics. Democratic politics is primarily about dealing with mid level challenges. What does it say about us that we just keep doing that. I think there are a couple of reasons. One reason that we keep building. Cities near volcanoes. Faultlines is that they have all kinds of appealing features apart from those geological risks terrific vacations for trade for example olek place to tremendous arable land. That's positive explanation. Another part of the explanation as you suggested is that which argued covetously at s- dealing with risks in the domain of uncertainty which we call it really attach probabilities especially when the disasters happen infrequently enough that it sort of wants a century and as relatively few of make a study of history of than in the most casual way scored easy just to forget. The there is this risk and that it's it's frequency is not once every thousand years i think finally a maybe most importantly in all time the incentives for politicians to address long run threats and randomly distributed disasters and strong. Because if you want to read prepare california for the big one. You have to make all kinds of expensive investments. In improving the buildings people live and working. And that's expensive and one of the things. I learned from writing a very different kind of biographies henry. Kissinger was what he calls the problem of conjecture the problem of conjecture states that if you are statesman the decision maker you have a choice between doing. The line of physicians dune as little as possible or taking expensive measures for fear of some future disaster. And the problem. Is that if you do nothing and get lucky than you win if you successfully preempt disaster route successfully prepare for disaster. You don't really get thanked for it. The payoffs of very asymmetrical and so. It's quite tempting for particularly for democratic leaders who maybe four or five year time horizon up to worry about that expensive stuff and this is the central problem that global warming has revealed. The it's one thing to make a speech about the terrorist of climate changes and other thing to do in the thing that bites that sweetie meaningfully impact the The average temperatures so. I think that's a long winded answer to your question. It gets us back to the fundamental problem. That disasters are not things we well up to deal with. The question is whether we were it and one of them will control. And things i say in the book is that in some ways we have despite a greater scientific knowledge. I was just going to push you on this question. Was i think what. I'm gonna say sort of fits with what you've just said an be interested to see whether you agree. Which is the very good about thinking practically about risks. So what we do is we do two very different things at least in the west that we do two very different things which in the one hand is simply to get on with doing the things that we want to do is if the risks from niger Really exist your example of like his carries on in california at the same time in our my generations. We have all kinds of apocalyptic fantasies. Essentially an apocalyptic dreads finish the book with these different stories that had been science fiction over the last few decades. What we mentioned to be able to do. And i think the way we start with. Climate change does fit into. This is to be pragmatic about the subject. I think you absolutely rice. One of the oddities about human nature is that we're fascinated by the idea of the end of the world catastrophic disaster. It's all over. Popular culture is central to science fiction. I was fascinated by stories about people in new york in the early stages of covid nineteen watching the movie contagion. And that sort of sums it up there we are in the real pandemic watching a movie about a war swung on the other hand. We don't seem able to think in a practical or pragmatic way by type two Better option eventuality. I think the fact that we imagine these things is much worse than they all paralyzes us. So there's a sort of sense of well at the end of the world is coming in twelve years. I think it's down to ten years since andrew coaches gave us twelve. So you know what the help might as well. Just get the gas guzzler. Were done anyway. And i think therefore part of the point of writing. This book was to say it's not the end of the world. We really have to reckon with. It's a series of really pretty disruptive changes they were gonna follow from rising every temperatures and. We should probably do something about that. The program is in the case of climate change. The what happens. Is we give speeches. We love grand gatherings one in glasgow will be but the chinese continue to build a coal burning power stations such clip the our efforts to reduce emissions really have no impacts and as being a continued increase in emissions since the paris famous powers agreement china accounts for forty eight percents of the increase. So what are we going to do. The reason that writing about cold war to at the end of the book is the we have a fundamental problem. If we if we care about these issues that we have to constrain china if we can't constrain china we're not going to avert rising global temperatures. An older will follow in their train..

new york twelve ten years twelve years california forty eight percents last week Kissinger five year four One two one paulo last few decades chinese yellowstone cold war more than a century One reason
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

Talking Politics

06:40 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

"Failure at the level of public health. To see i think the lessons of saws and us. That's part of it. I mean the south. Koreans had subtly full salat as taiwanese sauce and muslims with the original corona virus epidemics. They never gone global because those viruses was deadly but they thought through the implications and i think unfortunate public health bureaucracies in the western world prepared for influenza pandemic. they'd have to sort of draw iran in two thousand nine with swine flu. Which haven't really been a biggie. And they were. I think therefore not ready for the particular form that this pandemic took so size wasn't really the key. I think it was more whether you were quick. On the draw and the countries that have reasons to feel paranoid standout as among the most successful with uneasiness notice specially paranoid places it well in new zealand. Remoteness definitely helped. Is i mean that was the remoteness in size question. I think though straight is big and did pretty well. It's big geographic dyslexia thought. Many people must bear in mind but he is unquestionably. The case that controlling travel was the kind of thing you had to do a home for it to work and very few western countries did thought australian museum in dade the uk. Didn't the us did it in a half assed way because trump said january. We have to stop people coming from china and the media Racism xenophobia and it was done in a way a couple of weeks too late with too many exceptions to work and they didn't retry people who were coming in so i think there was a way of doing it. The that repressed disease the current thinking. Which i think is right is that it was the best idea just to this thing off. Try to stop it. Guessing started to let it spread into society and then do lockdowns. The that was the right response. Course once you've done that repression strategy. The chinese of course did it in their way. Although i think many people in the west idealized that by thinking that the lockdowns they did in china from late. What the right thing to do. I don't think that was the conclusion it's any event. They did repress it but any country that successfully prevented large scale infection now has to do vaccination on a larger scale than those countries that allowed lots of natural infection for the obvious reason the population of australia's even over that matter. China is launching a virgin population. That very few people who've natural muncy got vaccinated. He pushing people before. You can reopen That's created its own set of problems. So there's east asian and australasian countries. Talking politics is brought to you in partnership with the london review of books. I think that a link between small is beautiful and paranoid because partly about power. Noise is in this case. Anyway being able to focus on multiple risks at the same time and smallness particularly in geopolitical context encourages you to think about multiple at the same time because they objectively exist attach too much importance to state structures and borders in a pandemic because the virus doesn't see those writing about the great pandemic of the room in age. I initially thought well you have this. Enormous empire with very high levels of trade going home. Of course it was vulnerable to pandemics. But then i got to the black death in thirteen. Forty s when europe's completely fragmented and probably will fragmented than at any time in its history with lots of little statelets and it. Still spreads tremendously rapidly through that politically fragmented europe. So i think the temptation of political science is always to sit there playing with political units north. Sure that especially since interesting enough. The size of policies follows a power law to we. Don't have an average state. We have a handful of really big ones and lots of ridiculous little ones and so much of this questions. Many of these questions particularly fruitful in the end its network structure that matters in a pandemic in any form of contagion. It's the thing itself. The pathogen will the beam. If we're talking about the internet and the social network that it attacks and that social network can be tali ordorless if you have. An era of globalized travel of the salt that we had achieved by twenty nineteen in which enormous numbers of people will flying very long distances every day. So that the Flights landing several times a week from wuhan in new york and london in san francisco when you allow new pathogens into that globalized world. It doesn't really matter whether you are little. Big state doesn't care in one of your themes across the book is that we tend to distinguish between natural disasters and the natural. But you want us to think that almost all disasters have a very strong non natural human made element that they are all at some level political. This is really the key theme of the book. That's why the subtitle is the politics catastrophe. Because the distinction in some ways as a as a false one we want to believe that a pandemic to natural disaster an awards manmade but in reality the scale of the impacts of covid nineteen. Oh the asian flu is really a function of how we collectively or our leaders make decisions and even a volcanic eruption has a political character. Because it's not. A disaster of volcano erupts on an uninhabited island. But it is a disaster if if you've built a city right next to us and we have a strange habit as humans of building cities nia volcanoes and full lines and then rebuilding them after the eruptions. That's one of the things that i was kind of fascinated by this tendency just to kind of carry on as if not too much has happened so i think if one looks this distinction it ceases to be informative because it doesn't really explain enormous differences in outcome that part of the central theme of the book. I think even the natural disasters have this political construction put on them. And it's the decisions made before during and after that determine how big disaster is measured in terms of excess mortality. what about if it was yellowstone volcano. Surely there were some things where all the human interaction with. It is very secondary.

new zealand san francisco australia wuhan china trump new york january europe east asian twenty nineteen london one thirteen taiwanese australian nineteen things two thousand nine chinese
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

Talking Politics

07:06 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Talking Politics

"Here yet. Two points prompted by that. The first is maybe one should explain to listeners. Water power law is but that's common parlance yet. the key here is just the distribution. Now if we look to human height soul road accidents there's a kind of normal belka of distribution as an average human height little quite close to it and the frequency of automobile. Accidents is also say quite ex-ante predictable tone. Sure as make their money but things like pandemics all wars or earthquakes or wildfires aren't like that if you bought the distribution of pandemics you don't get the bell curve if you actually use lower the skills you get a straight line meaning that there are a very small number of of huge pandemic and lots and lots of things that are so small. They better figure in the historical record and the same is true of of wars. That's an immediately obvious. Point when you think about the distribution of wars in the last couple of hundred years to massive was the world wars and then lots of little wars with really quite small accounts so this is the challenge that we face most disasters are distributed according to paulos and that makes it impossible for us to attach probabilities anti to the probability of a colossal earthquake. Niran sitting on the senate andries hotline. We just call know the second point. Is that when we're trying to assess the historical impact or the political impact of a disaster. The body count is not actually the most important thing strange though that may see if you take the nine hundred fifty seven fifty eight asian flu killed about the same proportion of the world's population covert has so far which is no point four percent. But it's not really remembered and even the people who lived through it had so the hazy memories of the experience and that suggests that the body can't isn't reading the key. I will killed a lot of people more than covid but i don't think its historical. Significance was the the number of deaths on the battlefield. Its historical significance came from all the consequences. That cascade of other related disasters must obviously the bolshevik revolution the followed from it. The disintegration the empire's on the side of the central powers. And i think that's the way to think about this. Historically disaster can kill a lot of people and somehow be forgotten if it doesn't have a cascade of consequences. The titanic was not the worst shipping disaster in history by any means but it's the best remembered because consequences the way in which it was reported the way in which it became popular culture made it historically significant titanic's and interesting example because in itself. The sinking of that ship didn't actually really have consequences. It's the dramatic story of the titanic. The the humbling of the ship on its maiden voyage that was priced Beyond syncopal because it in telling of it seems to catch something about the human condition. Whereas i wasn't instance whereas you say it's the huge economic geopolitical political four out of it that turns it into something that becomes entrenched in consciousness. I think the power with the pandemic is it does take on the one hand it looks to us in the west anyway like a story about all hubris because it's not something that we had on a radio or many people i should say on. That writer could happen even though some people clearly did understand that it could but then something will say about the collective experience of lockdown that means that it will stay in. I think everybody's consciousness he's lived through it. I think that's right. I mean we will remember not so much. The mortality as the experience of lockdown because the mortality will infighting of affected a relatively small percentage of most societies but everybody was affected by the lockdowns that i think is part of the story to say nothing of the fact that the lock turns had a great many unintended consequences. Which i think we haven't fully figured out yet. I mean the impact on young people who are especially at risk from the disease will turn out. I think to be one of the greats. Unintended consequences of the pandemic the psychological ill-effects. Larry david cutler. Did this paper was the end of last year where they tried to work out what the actual cost of cove would be and they came up with a figure wolf of ninety percent of us gdp. This is the cost to the united states alone. And that's factoring in things like long covert and and the other costs that that's a much bigger hit than the contraction of the economy that cud last year which is only about three point five percent so i think the early stages of doing a full accounting for this disaster. But when we do we'll find that lockdowns had a great many causse as well as the obvious benefit that they had of slowing down the spread of the virus. And that's why. I think historians and economists and i hope the public health officials will spend a long time picking over this this disaster and trying to figure out what we got wrong. Because i'm pretty sure that we got things wrong. It's just that we have to figure out what those were and there's another scout question here you talk about this that the response was most successful this point anyway smallness of scale seems to be an advantage. I mean is not universally true of course but relatively speaking smaller nations. Some smaller nations did veteran. We are now seeing some of the largest nations china of cosplaying. The exception done particularly badly is their relationship. No in terms of the scale of the disastrous self but the response the means that small is beautiful. I wondered about that early on. It wasn't back greater correlation. That was a thesis that i remember being tossed around a year ago did help to be an island that turned out to be meaningful made taiwan and south korea which is actually quite a a big country and israel successful because israel was pretty successful except for a spike loss. Summer was that they are for reasons generally paranoid. They have reasons to worry about a lot of different forms of threats from their neighbors. And that i think is why they quick on the draw. Taiwan was terrific identify. The threat. didn't believe beijing's assurances that there was no human to human transmission had in place a plan to ramp up testing at full about contact tracing and was able to act with tremendous nimble nece in response to the crisis i think the countries of the western world democracies regardless of their size. Were pretty slow to realize what was happening and shared to varying degrees a common fate and it didn't term matter who was president or prime minister..

Larry david cutler south korea five percent last year ninety percent taiwan first Two points a year ago second point four percent china nine hundred fifty seven fifty last couple of hundred years end of last year one hand one Taiwan united four
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Science Salon

Science Salon

03:40 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Science Salon

"In fact The person i make as roosevelt supposedly knew about the japanese attack on pearl harbor. Because look. here's all these pieces of intel. When you look at the big picture. Roosevelt had like thousands of pieces of intel. Because they broke. The magic broke the japanese code and so and and same thing with bush. He's just inundated with intel. Which is the right one. Well after the fact you go back go there. That's the right mammal..

Roosevelt thousands of pieces roosevelt japanese pearl harbor intel
"niall ferguson" Discussed on Science Salon

Science Salon

04:15 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on Science Salon

"But i've never heard a good argument for how it could be. I mean even if somehow al qaeda or isis or somebody got hold of a dirty nuke and detonated it in new york harbor and in a million people died. What's going to happen. The president's can hand the keys over the white house to the terrorists. I mean nothing like this is going to happen. I mean the only scenario maybe would be a total thermonuclear exchange of a fairly high ordered that that mom could extinguish every last human. Maybe maybe or even something like a black death but even that played itself out and you know there was quite a few positive changes after that. Some we recover and you know. There's there's a desire people that studied disasters. Show that even after hiroshima and nagasaki. I mean the japanese were like opening the banks the next week and cleaning up the streets and getting back to business fairly quickly. I was startled. When i delved into two noble one of the many famous disasters that i write about in the book by the low death toll. I'd certainly as many more people had died An in fact that the numbers are really surprising. These small including people who were interest proximity to the explosion of the reactor. The there was certainly are all kinds of radioactive material blown across europe but the The deaths associated with that pollution are extremely few and far between and i. This illustrates a really important point. You mentioned steve pinker earlier. And i think it's worth acknowledging point that he's made repeatedly week. We have a media ecosystem designed to exaggerate the scale and likelihood of doom Because it sells if it bleeds. It leads at this leads. I think to a tendency for each disaster to seem a unprecedented and be potentially apocalyptic. And i think in reality doom shows is that much fascinated by the end of days and every major religion has some kind of apocalypse..

new york harbor steve pinker europe next week nagasaki hiroshima one each disaster two noble million people japanese
"niall ferguson" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

The Lawfare Podcast

02:53 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

"Called on changing the culture in those parts of our system. Where can be changed and here. I'm a little gloomy. Because i think the education system is is an even more troubling problem than democracy itself right now. Our education system from the most elite universities down too many public schools in in many states seems obsessed with ideological issues that are entirely beside the point and we have a non sequitur. Who problem. It's quite a serious one that was revealed by the huge protests that swept another kind of contagion swept the country after the merger of george floyd in the midst of a pandemic. We suddenly became entirely consumed with the question of of police brutality. A question which we did not specify well in which we sought to address with a very scant regard for the data to outside is this was the craziest of non sequiturs to be having battle argument that points about policing in the midst of a of a pandemic. it's still strikes me as as a strange echoing almost the ways in which during the black death people sought to expiate The sins in waldo further Further divine vengeance so. I don't know how we how we can fix this man to express the cautious hope that in in business in the corporate sector. There's a strong suspicion that work is is not the answer and that the people are recruited from colleges. Today are ill equipped to do the jobs they're asked to do. I think they'll have to be some transformation of postgraduate education at some point soon so that people are actually equipped to deal with the problems. I'm discussing and you could imagine a master's course that would combine some of what i call applied history with network science and the proper grounding in statistics. You can train people. It's not rocket science to understand the problems. That i'm i'm talking about an above all else just to to to get them to understand that that history one dam disaster after another and they will be one at some point you will be confronted by a disaster and it will be the defining moments of your life and career. I'm not sure if that's a note of modified pessimism or modified optimism. But we'll have to end it there nehal. Thank you for joining us. Thank you very much law. Fair podcast is produced in cooperation with the brookings institution. Please share the podcast rate the podcast and share the podcast on the social media of your choice this episode is edited and produced by gen paci. Howell zachary. Frank was our audio engineer. Sophia yan performed our music as always. Thanks for listening..

Sophia Frank Today george floyd gen paci. Howell zachary brookings institution black one
"niall ferguson" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

The Lawfare Podcast

07:03 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

"If you're a soldier one of my favorite ditties from world war one. Which i quote in the book is the bells of hell. Go tinling for you but not for me death. Where is thy sting alling. Oh grave victory. I mean that was sung by british soldiers in the trenches on the western fronton in world. War one in truth probability of being killed or mutilated was really pretty high if you were serving on the western front but it was very hard to to live with that thought so the bells of hell would tingling for someone else. I think all of this is how we cope. Psychologically with that imminence of catastrophe that is a reality of the human condition and it said was a much greater reality in the past. We we actually live much. More cossetted lives today than than our ancestors did but for them with the presence of of death really quite quite close at hand the the had to be some way of living other than living in fear so i think we combine a sort of insouciance Bells of hell mentality with a preoccupation. Through religion with some much grander end of everything. Which for some reason we find it easier to think about. Maybe because it keeps us from having to make some hard choices about resource investment for highly impactful but low probability scenarios like a disaster that rises to the level of a true catastrophe. That's right and kind of common misconception. Usually enjoys a surge of popularity immediately after disaster is the more should have been done. We should've been better prepared. We must learn to be better prepared for the next time. This happens and that usually means that you then prepare food. The last war right. And i'm sure we'll divert. Resources independent preparedness and then be blindsided by some of the form of disaster because i think the heterogeneity of disasters important theme of this book there were lots of different ways in which disaster can strike if you think only about one and currently. That's temptation because of the great focus on climate change within the global elite. You'll probably be caught her more than once by something else. It was bizarre. Be at davos in january. Twenty twenty surrounded by people who wanted to talk about climate change when it was obvious to me at least that a pandemic ready begun the planes with the virus were were into europe even as the conference was happening so i think understanding that disaster is multifaceted. And it's a mistake to be very well prepared for just one. Scenario is a part of of the books message and that that has a further kind of implication which is the it's better to be generally prepared for adversity than to be very specifically prepared for one or two forms of adversity it significant in my mind that amongst the best performers in the world in managing the covid nineteen disaster would taiwan south korea and israel. Israel had a rough some on the whole it's performances being very good and of course it was one of the leaders when it came to vaccine deployment. These are countries that have reasons to be paranoid reasons to be generally vigilant because their their neighbors pose existential threats and these can take more than one form. So i do think that if looks those countries. What striking is the nimble notice the speed with which they by contrast with the extraordinary slowness with which are bureaucracy out reacted even low ex ante on paper the. Us's was very well prepared for for a pandemic that was what it it seemed and it turned out not to be. I think it was not prepared for this particular kind of pandemic it was prepared for maybe a nasty influenza pandemic but when it when it turned out not to be that the system failed quite badly. I'm interested in that observation. About the relative success of taiwan in a south korea compared to so many others and in your relationship that to the presence of this existential threat this overbearing sense of something can go wrong therefore we will respond better when there is a crisis because there are other parallels here related to the other kinds of disasters that you look at. For example japan indonesia. There are others but japan indonesia standout immediately when i think about the probability of catastrophic earthquakes combined with the probability of major volcanic eruptions in soon armies and other natural disasters exacerbated by population location and things of that sort and yet not all of the countries that have a more i would say a more frequent experience with disasters of that nature responded as well as the south korea the taiwan and as you mentioned at least early in the pandemic and later with vaccine's israel is there some innocence carryover effect between categories of disasters that can help people get through ones. Perhaps that they didn't imagine or they thought were highly unlikely but certainly can come at any time. i think. In the case of taiwan and south korea it was the fact that they learnt the lessons of sars and mirrors. Where we really didn't the was important. You'll right to mention japan and indonesia. 'cause i spend quite a lot of the book talking about geological disaster something about which we've rather forgotten but which in those countries the remains a very keen awareness. I think the history of japan's attempts to manage earthquake risk illustrates the difficulty of getting it right because they really did. Try to come up with some predictive basis for dealing with the earthquakes in here. In their geographical location and again and again fell shorts with fukushima. Only the most recent example of of a disaster. They didn't quite take the anticipated form. And exposed the inadequacy of planning with respect.

january europe world war one Twenty twenty fukushima one taiwan more than once south korea nineteen disaster israel british japan today indonesia davos japan indonesia Israel more than one form two forms
"niall ferguson" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

The Lawfare Podcast

01:50 min | Last month

"niall ferguson" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

"To that individually. And i think you'd also say as societies we members of homo sapiens sapiens. Simply aren't that good at calculating in the face of uncertainty or acting in domains with largely unfettered predictable events like catastrophes instead. We essentially ignore catastrophic possibilities. Why is that. I think it's it's actually a smart response in many ways just to put the disaster out of mind and carry on as if it's never gonna happen during the cold war which i'm old enough to remember. All in theory lived under a potential mushroom cloud of of nuclear war. But in truth did we really think about it. As far as i can see working my way through the history of the cold war on other projects. Most people got on with life as if it wouldn't happen and we can tell that because behavior didn't radically change. When the cold war ended the was a nice theoretical prediction. That savings rates would be affected in the savings rate. had been depressed by the danger of armageddon. Why save we could all be ash tomorrow. But if that had been right than the savings rate would have gone up after nineteen thousand nine ninety one. Of course it went down even lower. So i think part of the story is that because you cannot attach meaningful probabilities to do to disaster. You therefore have to just carry on regardless the way people who live near near me in the stamps area.

tomorrow thousand cold war nine ninety one nineteen