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India Tomorrow part 7: what Narendra Modi's landslide victory means for India

The Anthill

42:09 min | 1 year ago

India Tomorrow part 7: what Narendra Modi's landslide victory means for India

"One in eight people in the world is an Indian under the age of thirty ultimately, if the people of Indian Kashmir decide that they do not want to be about of India, then all bets are off in terms of what Buxton will do as well all political parties will try to indulge in some sort of spinning, and some sort of fake news while. Politics, Hiber, nationalist shares with the current hyper-nationalist moment, which is being Costa word. He's representing the people who believe in and stand for a unified strong nation. Hello. And welcome to the final part of India tomorrow, a series from the conversations and poke cost in this episode we will be setting the results of India's twenty nineteen elections. I'm out about blowing from the conversation and I'm joined this episode our series co host injury. Roy let lettera in politics at the university of York. You get thank you. And we've also got Nikita sued associate professor of development studies at the university of books on the line. Hi, and joining us from India Mucci, Raymond assistant, professor at Jamea Milia Islamia university in New Delhi. We are recording this on Friday morning, UK time, the results nearly Oland not quite Olen. But it looks clear, the Narendra Modi's BJP will secure more than three hundred of the five hundred forty three seats in India's lower house of parliament. So it's a landslide victory vendor. Modise securing a crushing defeats over the congress party in today's election returning him to power for the next five years ago to. Riveria rua. Dr him, Don date. A heroes. Welcome at the BJP headquarters. What Narendra Modi has achieved has not been done in sixty two years. A single party winning consecutive term, increasing its margin house apprised. Are you by these results house? We could start with you, as someone who's been looking at these elections for a while. We were told that moldy will win, but I think I'm very surprised with the scale of his victory and the crushing defeat is imposed on his rivals. So yes, it's the scale of the victory, the fact that on its own the BJP secured over three hundred seats. That's commendable to be honest. It's, it's, it's remarkable that's also apprising and Michio your joining us that what is the sense on the ground? Well, you know, certainly got all of us, computer annoy s not just in terms of what was to fissile visited different parts of indebting, this long campaign talking to people, and also kind of mislaid by the media in the media did not get the scale audit. The question is not about winning exceeds, but the huge margin to his there manage to beat the begun. Here's defeated their nearest rivals that, so that is a huge surprise and watch. Most of us could not figure out that BJP last time but teddy one but devotes this time they have offered almost seventy eight but to devotes their kitty. So that's onto enter the prize that the vote said go up extent. So listen button to do other things that I found computer surprising less in a manner that the demand is too. To enlist their assaults on the alliance's different is, and some of the new stage that they were trying to enter into make inroads almost extent the planned investment ball, any notice sur in both stairs, manage to reach the targeted almost, and they're now to parties waiting to conquer this to state, government's the only thing that is not surprising that, that they could not succeed in the sudden project in instance like this. Caroline damn. Do we have to have not been able to enter about unit Cates, a, the extent of your surprise at this landslide victory? I'm surprised like all my academic trends, but I was in India, intra lem talking to a range of food in north India and western in and across NAS and the job get the goodies. I spoke to. Professionals in job of Luke on the workers and owners them absolute than for the states that belong to a head-on. You be go might ask that would be was coming back, and they were not talking about dead financially candidates about Dan local issues. But they were talking about this big on now who had when I was talking to them. This apron present aftermath of woma acts and the Beila supposedly dentition by Cassini, SP's, bombed, supposedly what over dentist organization, and that had changed the these be rented will be divisible does or not said they felt that this had been the done in point and movie was coming back and very much more. The discourses about him. I think that's an interesting point to hone in on it felt like a presidential election in lots of ways. And how, how significant do you think it was the that Mody managed to make the selection kind of all about a on his leadership? Then that is taking us back to nineteen seventies India where, you know, the snow good was ended up on the internet is India and India's data. So that was the NAS time Basan this daily for status but dissenting pundits. And it is to be commended that we are on, on the agency that we're back to this vary in person Centric, on the dick sweat, every constituency people don't think about movie when, now that is a known entity inventive, for teen people testing. But now that is a known entity. I think this of. Personalities entrance can go both raise because he perhaps been more on the desk as a as a need, though, than he has been in the first fight because everything nonce does even more on him. Especially after this, tempting. You know as much as it spin about Mody to what extent is also a failing of the opposition to, to of counter his narrative, it would seem to observers late me that the opposition dupage is out of the Begic playbook from the anti for dinner election. Nj them and really weight off the option agenda and the foul of, you know, aircraft, the more the incentive and Indian, the defense minister have been less of a plan. A big business house in India on led by unbinding got the contract, for building fight the jets never having built any in a fight agenda, military with before and the opposition. But to me, the congress yearly focused on that with this Logan jockey bag Joe head. However, what seems to have gone wrong for them. Opposites easy foster. Now's it respectively. You know, I have. Sympathy for the congress dishes on giant, what seems to have gone wrong is that has not peaked win a need the ground vandy is saying jonky Jordan, because Moore has been done back and said, even your father was a p he neutrally had these kinds of slogans in his inaction dandies. So, you know, coming from an elite on the dish in the corruption and being the peeve slogan did not work as when as the soak on jostled on mission. More the his support does saying that any dug up ambient this north them. So what in rinky for dean was driving in nineteen by other actors and it hasn't booked and, you know, the opposition needs to be looking for other people's yet. I mean how significant was the raw Gandhi lost the kind of long longtime family seat of, of the congress party? In a messy MiG, maybe I could bring you hit. It's enormous enormous as Nick said, I just wanted to that, that is really not be victory. It is since this victory, and we'll be has the ability will detri- for in two thousand fourteen now that again field anybody and get that guy elected. So from that point of Uganda's have lost NAS that ability to give people elected because of their own Stecher, or that on work on history, get a small, so this particular defeat doubts that, that Ghandi's have gone win by themselves. So, so the defeating amenity of round on the is, in that sense, massive. Bacchus because of that reason Bucky, also it signals neck, that they are on most non-energy today in the northern again politics, the heartland of invalids, because he has a huge victory in Gabriella. But in the north that almost in on entity now, so amid team is surprising to extend, but journalists on the mound in this have been writing about how the nineties have neglected amid t- and more entity on me was again, the two one in amid t have unique into the seed with government programs. You know, when federal Rams the building of the building of forms will be proved in disaster deadline around event to a media new, one in the dialects in gamp in that is his opponent one literally says death for months and visited this. Constituency to out the five of the last five years. So this is a big Jim more, but they have also written work in particular constituencies with the vetting dock of the game land, it symbolic that they have defeated drown vanity, and they have worked on it for five years to this, this week Dunn's that big Jim, but that's not the next and I think what we've seen in these elections, is some kind of consolidation of what you might now be considering a foam of Hindu feminism man, ideas of Hindu in the cetera are, of course there. But alongside you have vide- clearly sort of dog date Ben fetish programs on the ground pains that such as constructing join leads providing houses, providing credit for, you know. Of people let cetera these things that have really that seemed to have worked on the ground. Now, we may debate about the quality of services provided, but on the ground, I think there has been much more than what critics have given credit full these peace seem to have reached a people, but in specific constituencies, but I happen to be talking do you know, the person who's of heads at home, and in daddy, and she said she would go back to home invest, Bengal to boot, and we generally chatting ASTA will devote flying. She said, of course, moldy, of course BJP, and of course, she was using saying both the NB together. So she knew me the man. She also knew the party and we said, why because West Bengal is not traditional JV sort of Dan, she said, whether they've given us holes given us joy. It's provided us credit and these three things in that although seem to be working for her seem to have worked in Mantilla's Makiko just mentioned, perhaps, worked in many parts of moving could you just explain briefly the significance of, of the result in Westman golden as you said, West, Bengal doesn't historically BJP stronghold. Yes. West Bengal has historically bid stronghold of the list of full since the nineteen seventies left from ruled west. Bengal uninterruptedly for thirty five years in two thousand eleven the left was dislodged from its preeminent position by a visa potty state specific body, led by Mamata Banerjee. Joe Bengal has been the stoop, body state, which, you know, where the conflict the competition has been between the left and Mamata Banerjee in these elections. The BJP seems to have broken that too. Buddy system. It's completely dislodged left from West Bengal, politics together, on the month, banner bandages sort of electoral position remains strong, the BJP's, demolished left, and has emerged as the challenger investing goal. And I think in some ways this reflects the stage that the in, in the of, of India, where they've really sort of main inroads into constituencies into areas. Fanta, did not have a presence before demolishing a lot of the parties of that in Bihar, which is among India's poorest states, but also stayed that sends a significant number of representatives, we've seen this probation, which is India's largest editor state, so to speak. Where we, it's a relation of regional bodies that had promised to take on the BJP together. But, you know, when you look at the vote shares the Bs one, these massive chess leading a complete decimation of the reason bodies across the north. It's really being a huge command slides, and we're going to see a second term of, of the J P ruling as a majority in government, moving on now to kind of what we what we can expect to see over the next five years, and the significance of this of this vote. I mean perhaps, we could just thought by asking Nikita house can efficient. You think it is that we are returning to another majority in the nine days of seem like the Adra of one. Fifty was over and economic writing about this thing that time of coalitions, and many of us that relations warm, democratic resent many more constituencies in just groups than, you know, single, especially if it's about the night of Egypt, which dumps to our on this Hindu-nationalist agenda by that is very much the end. In now, the Baxter, this would love of contested as Borden on the jets used to be the congested. The nineteen fifties on it, does now the BJP when people were looking at the run up to the governor, the next Sion's felt the BJP will probably come back to power, but with the juice majority forced to get into collision arrangements with regional parties with identities parties, and that would make them, you know, listen to the of India, not more not just to go constituency, what we are going to see courses the BJP has got into people alliances and it will, you know, another the nineties, nor doubt who is going to be calling the shots. It's not just the Bijan be more the and the president of the body amid show of with the dominant duo in undented over the. Nas fai. And this election result has Jensen bands. We went to see a flood the centralization of our and that is things we need to be vigilant about in the diplom-, I think, in his tree speed motive Ouled to build a strong and inclusive. India now in lots of ways. This election has been seen as a kind of vote on, on the BJP's identity politics, and it's I did of Hindu nationalism Majid's. Maybe I could bring you hit to talk about the significance of, of the vote along density lines, prime minister or the astronauts, the train, started suggesting that he was going to come back to our. He ridge is said, he would like to build an inclusive in there and the first week just speech that it Denver the evening there. He made fun of. Secularism doxycycline. And said that we would like to abide by the constitution but at the same time, he made fun of secularism. And he said, people who have been talking about secularism for last so many kids in this elections there. No at Besim, and that badge has lost its mini. How can you say that, that you're going to abide by the constitution on the one hand, and then abandoned, secularism secularism is considered to be the core values of constitution? So that, in fact, legislative questions in what sense he was going to look at the issue of minority riots or lot of issues, who have proved poison political parties to dig at him. This vector say, what would happen in last five years with lynching that other uses. So I'm not to show that, that whether Mr. is going to interpret this particular as adult as something which is also attempt to repeal manned him. Which got to lynching on all of that stuff with that he was going to come out with spatial law to deal with it. So there will be massive ramification with respect to Muslim politics, minority rights in India. I just want to read out that is nice write-up today in express by one of the Geno, secondary's also room Dinara, says by Rama so if any if any do threats that he has an most at least on the liberals and secularists that you, you're saying your days are over and is, they're, they're going to be taking care of that many of the five years. So we did actually have a question from one of the listeners of poker series. Someone could's Indira governmental. They wrote in about this issue of secularism and seem to seem to say that previous is the congress party and other regional. Altis woods would talk a lot about secularism, but he felt that it was not as big an issue in this election of twenty nineteen. I don't know if you would agree with that, all if it was, maybe not as over a debate, will, you know diamond again, police indeed this norlander, campaigners invidious dividend discussions and debates that I have followed. They did mention about secularism in a social harmony all diseases dividers. What did not do is this? They did not been presented more the as a community leader or begrudging leader. But instance, nothing but night, what he says Jeep ministered interview when he was asked, how you look at about about your Vigia p do consider the government body did say that is a comic party, but I would to Bauchi Lee because ablation bodies did. Not do not really make keys of saying that, that, that are return of Mr. moody, or BJP would threaten us also fabric and all of that, that kind of an autumn it was not made. Instead, they focused on, on more the as being corrupt as the men's and jockey dot Giora argument on all of that. So I would not say that, that, you know, they do not pay attention to it. But do not come out in a very prominent way this election soul. So the controversial figure of practicing tackle being elected, how significant was was higher election. It's very significant because it is sending out a signal about who the next generation is in who're going to Jim wanted in this five thirty. I'm not the dose of dries that guessing topcoats was elected to the member, that fun in central India, where she fought from is considered a safe seat of the BJP. They haven't lost since nineteen eighty nine so they were putting this divisive ago in saves almost show that she would be elected, and that is meant to send a signal to their constituency. The same can be said this highly divisive twentieth who's been in Bangor, south constituency, he's one of the youngest candidates, he is, you know, very much in the morning off these highly divisive need those who go down Nov having these very communist speeches in the next. He has been elected, and he is going to be groomed along with impolite drag yet as the next generation. So, you know, Mr. Moore D as someone was mentioning. Have made this very inclusive stance when light to the statement about how this was going to be any who's of India and he made it a point to say he liked to his opponents along. But they're talking multiple languages for different constituencies. And therefore, we need to keep an eye on the different games that Nate. Just moving on now to some of the policies that we, we might be able to expect from this new kind of reinvigorated, Mody government. That was a motive tool cO for the Indian economy in over the election campaign, and a lot of people were saying that the policies like monetization, and the failure to increase the number of jobs, especially for young people. A lot of people said these could be election deciding shoes in the end, it seems that they haven't been how big a challenge Google this Spain over the next five years and will sort of policies, do you think we can expect from remote government? So I think we need to amend that these elections would most extensive that India has Emma had. And they came on the back of something called electoral bones, where corporate houses including subsidies of foreign. Companies and multinationals in by electoral bonds, essentially funding bodies, and we don't know who these, they can be bought anonymously and the kinds of figures that we have from the, from the state van were India of that in if through March, April twenty ninth in total bones would point five billion dollars would bought now these have been bought in large denominations. So we know are corporate business entities that have that kind of cash that buying them, and we convey showed that they will be expecting the Dunn's now that, you know, government is in power in twenty in teen in total bonds, ninety eight percent of them went to the BJP. So Johnson's are things continued along those lines, and the BJP has been a big beneficiary now that does involve it is being back dime. So they they had. Had allowed the that going on seven months. When this guarding the national green tribunal end up, giving away mining licences Najd of land to their business houses, or fought nauseam beacon expect that to continue all behind tuned as environmental agenda, something to watch out now if you know companies have been encouraged big industry mining, except dry, it would suggest that perhaps jobs will also be created a however, we have to remember that India, like many parts of the world is moving towards this. Jobless a group scenario where even if the GDP is roughly seven percent. The jobs that may be created a going to be very Kansas and contract bees, because we are increasingly moving automation in lots of sectors employment is going to keep being the problem like it was the last five years in Mr. moody game to violent. Fourteen promising that he would create draft need under in crawl jobs in, in Denver's or twenty five of crow jobs, a year, none of that happened. In fact, we saw a dissemination of employment rate, so foreign employment figures had gone down. And even the business might you know have a banana tanks to the famous. They have done the government. We cannot be shown that jobs will be created an employment issue in grow with which dates back to the micro, economic initiatives, the when finishing to that we were talking about earlier in the program. So the leaching out two constituencies on the ground through the building of housing, the giving Bank accounts gas connections, which the government also did inventive forty-nine in those kinds of things might continue. And that also means in the fiscal deficit situation needs to be watched because. Nuts. Something like two point five percent of the of fiscal deficit stood something like two point five percent of the GDP and that needs to be watched because innovators, this money went come from, do Abe's over dude, each out, the is that type of this government into power when the three of you look back on this election, when you potentially right? Your books about sit over the over the coming year. So what do you think will be the defining factors? Now we've talked about the economy. But we've also talked about Cal politics. We've talked about the issue of Kashmir, which was ready bag at the stall, the election campaign engine. Maybe I could ask you. I will of think will will be the defining thing that the people look back on the twenty nineteen elections. I mean looking at the election campaign looking at these sorts of narratives that will be. Presented to be done and looking at the outcomes. I think it's a classic case of you know what we might want to think about a gems of we might want to talk about something around the politics of fashion. I think the kinds of fashions that were aroused in these elections. And of course, our have have been about bashes minutes. It's not you know, he died a new pain. But I think if you look at the results, you just look at the huge majorities, that the BJP has one, not only at the country level, but in constituencies that they want, you know, they in a multi-party system to win mid sixty percent majorities fifty plus percent majorities pitted against you know, a number of oppositions. That's not possible. Unless you've you've touched fevers rots for good Radoman, that's different sort of issues. I mean, if I were to write a book or reward to sort of think about, you know, looking at India in comparative perspective bid. Tell ki- your Brazil or even the United States for that matter. I would probably sort of think of how passionate politics rather than populism or other sorts of things, which are a sort of twentieth, century concepts heading as to sort of look at what's going on for the, the kinds of actions that have been cited. So whether it's law or hate or entity, a whole, or any of these, you know, sort of emotions, I think that was sort of so much on display and the results short. I mean in the boss, we've had been binning with eighty percent of the vote. Even VJ visa in thirty percent of the at this time, you know, the scale of their victories in Indy constituencies. They won couldn't have been possible without the unleashing of actions. Ask you about the threat of distinction may be making between passionate populism because I guess a lot of people just being saying motives populace message. Just another 'nother, global election was seeing of the popular politician, coming to power. But you'll say there's a slight difference. Yes, I would I would sort of not rule out the populist element in the sense union the way in which leaders make direct connections with the people reach out to the people directly, which he does, of course, true, you know his what sack messages through his presence on the social media. But I think we have to also appreciate the distinctiveness of moldy visa, they say, Trump over scenario, but similar to maybe the in the sense, like the movie very much belongs to the political system. He's not announce cider he's he he belongs. He he was chief minister of state. He's a full-fledged member of the party. He was groomed by the R S, which is sort of ideological mentor of the BJP. So he's very much apart in Basel off the political system, and I do pink that these elections were, of course about moldy but it was. About the ideas that movie holes and the ideas that he's expressed bitch is something that, you know, his party, and the RSS have been working on for nearly ninety years. The idea of idiot being a Hindu nation and unity, sort of lacing of political narrative in the in the sense, populism would be about a person only and the person's direct v to the people. I think what we see here is these bashes being generated and dispersed to Potter's to committed Carter's through opinion, influences on social media through a party system. You know, Mondays very much part and parcel of the BJP. His big tree is victory for the party in a way, that maybe Trump would be said to have hollowed out the Republican party, MRs Gandhi, hollowed out, congress party image. I wanted to ask you, because he your book about the twenty fourteen elections, new new written about the rise of sufferin power. What do you think when it comes to twenty nineteen will sort of define the selection of what would be the focus view in ROY? Writing about it. You know, just to to watch in the sand. By responding to the Abdellatif that he deceived, using his victory last time in the voluntary meeting melanoma more the impetus, fourteen he became emotional. And he said, that, that is the party that has given me everything, but he is like my mother and become telei. And so I totally agree with within the job. That is somebody who is from the party on. He wants to go the body in the book. I suggested that, that Moore is the first in the right you, the in engine politics, who recognized an understand that in the TWA, the ideology, turn ideology cannot be a friend, Bill project has to be a backup project. And that is how he brought in hinder twat to the slogan of development of because in the last election, unin this election. However, he simply he tried to. Make a kind of a front door project and he has succeeded in doing that. So I would look at nineteen election results as legitimation of the military politics. And I always looked at BJ's being not as just one body, but it's an ideological movement, which has been working very hard since last hundred years to outsmart cyclists in the establish. Imagine volatility and, and to a great extent, this particular as has given them some, Greg of legitimacy and giving them a huge, huge opportunity to do. So I suggested in my book that the rider BJP was simply leading to what I said is from system in invalid IX, so in this election, that results, and I'm the coming years, would offensively legitimize, the political system has sufferin system where you have magic deadened politics. Operating in almost all organs coverage and was on engine does, but you'll have all constitutions in all of that stuff around westerly will not be able to figure it out that how to resist them once in a while that have been noise against it. But mostly it would be vegetarian system that kind of trade and legitimize voice of time and therefore causing discrimination vista things along with. See you wanted to pick up on, on something. And you mentioned when you were talking about the economy and you mentioned the issue of corruption, which is not something that we had time to really look in all poco series. But it is something, the one of our listeners wrote in about a gentleman could Jong slights into, to basically say, the India's is drowning in this country of corruption is an issue. He says his swept onto the map. I'm basically accuses Indian democracy of being kind of saddled with, with the issue of corruption. So we'll extend you think that's fair and should issues of corruption on the mining people's faith in the end moxie the north has often looked at the south as the den of corruption. But what does get up should it's the use of public office for private benefit? And what we have been talking about in this indirect program is this complete blooding of boundaries between in what does the bus nullity of one politician was the party? Where does the party end the state begin? Those kinds of lines of blood, and I'm going to be even more blood in the years to come with this huge victory for one party on the back of one. So I'm not sure corruption is a head headful at the good v. I think it does in almost goody, but it does analytically not helpful to understand polities, which is India of we should be looking at why people approach that presented not to official channels, but through systems of patronage should this, the friendly, the nation's and that's because they might have found the state to be inaccessible or Nevada to move from that realities. And that's why they used these different approaches to reach the state understand also beaches out to them in these university. Findlay bitterness heavy biz, and what this government and what we have been seeing in previous governments as renders that Foti's become the sort of buffers between the sort of slightly removed above society state. And society. And to me that does not corruption that is just the nature of the state in India and many parts of the world with spins over these university rationalist kind of boundaries that we want to put the state in two. So I wouldn't on corruption, I would gone into blurring of lines between state society imponded takes, and if anything we are going to see more of that, and that does not something to condemn, but it is, you know, something to understand why it happening. And what does it mean for India and pundits? So just finally to pick up on another thread that we talked about in all in all series of the episode. One was all about misinformation as, as an issue in India. Imagined blurring of lines and the, the whole issue of fake news on misinformation is, is a global one injured. It pops bring you back in here to comment on the extent the, the. Misinformation was was an issue in, in the twenty nineteen elections still really issue. A main many think about misinformation fake news. I think it contributed sexually to the passions. That was talking about earlier passions of all actions of anger all those date. So, you know, misinformation about a cow's, be smothered, or people being kid on the negative side or how great and good, you know, certain politicians were, including, and obviously, Mr. moody, but also be in a such kind of misinformation was marshalled in favor of other politicians, as, as we discussed nobody mobilized bombshell, misinformation, and fake news. As effectively as, as, as the BJP's Cada did where it was the news about the retaliation for the Roma attacks. Whether it was a news about how Muslims were treating induce in areas where he dues. Minority, whether it was news of misinformation about how calls will be treated. And this is, of course, not only during the elections, but over the last five years, acting as. Had been doubled. So, yes, I think it's, it's something to look out for fake news has been been us, you know, for a long time, but I think the medium, you know, the fact that now we have social media, and so, you know, what's up sort of based platforms, which allow fake news to go via I can. That's what makes it and will continue to make it a an issue to look out for intruding over the next five years than undoubtedly that a lot of news of Debbie spread about how wonderful the government is wage upon those foods, and you may turn out to be not like the case. So it's, it's undoubtedly something to look out for not only in India across the world. Yes. Absolutely. That is something we will have to watch out for bum frayed, that is all that. We have time for this episode a big banks to Nikita sued from the university of offered cheap. Raymond from Jimmy Milia Islamia unit. Versity in New Delhi, and my India. Tomorrow series co host energy ROY from the university of York. Thank you for joining us. This is the most episode of our India tomorrow series. Do check out the rest of it. We've got some great episodes on the role of fake news in Indian society on Hindu nationalism and India's economy. Thanks to all of those who've listened and got in touch with us, and a massive, thanks to all the academics spoken to us for this series, lawfully it. Thank you so much. We couldn't have done it without you. Check out the conversation dot com for more coverage of the Indian election results from academics around the world. The ant hill will be back in the coming months with a new series that we're really excited about watch this space for trailer coming soon. Follow us on social media on her pulled and sign up to our newsletter by the conversation dot com, all the link in the show notes. If you've enjoyed this cost, please give us a review on ITN's over of you get your pocus. We'd really appreciate it. Unlawfully a big thanks to the journalism department at City University for letting us use their studios in particular, Dave Goodfellow and John cheetan for showing us the ropes the ant hill is produced by Gemma aware, and miata bo- boy with sound by Alex port Felix. Thanks for listening goodbye.

BJP India congress party Nikita house university of York Mr. Moore D New Delhi Narendra Modi West Bengal India Mucci UK Dan Denver Jim Riveria rua Don date