24 Burst results for "Neill Cruz"
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"And then how dangerous the depth of the lineup is, like where so many guys can change the outlook of a game with one swing in this lineup, and then things did click for alvarado and sir Anthony at the right time. Yeah. Well, and it's like you have Harper, you know, we don't want to overreact to a guy being on a tear, but like when he is recovering from injury and starts to show a capacity to do this, which is consistent with stuff he has done in the past. You feel like it's more meaningful than like maroon Eddie Rosario just changed the World Series last year and we were like, cool, you're having the best month of your life. That's great. And so it does register a little differently. I don't mean to pick on Eddie Rosario. He's a perfectly good player and he had a great World Series. But when it's a guy who was clearly compromised because of injury and then he was non tendered the year before. That's true. But when you have a guy like Harper where he was clearly compromised by injury and now is hitting like his old self, that's that has to be pretty exciting for Philly fans. Kyle schwarber also not tendered at a point. That's right. The cubs non tendered him. Yeah, I guess it'll be interesting. I assume that the esters will roster a left handed pitcher for this series. We haven't seen the rest of the episode yet. I don't know if they'll put Smith on there or what, but if not or even if so, the match ups with the big lefty Philly bats schweber Harper like those will be interesting because the stanek and narrow splitters are maybe neutralizers there. Right. Yeah, the ester is like heavily right handed pen, but lots of guys who can get lefties out, obviously, which, you know, you could say about Robert Suarez as well. And Harper took him out, Harper's just really good. But I guess it'll be interesting to see whether they do put a lefty on the raster and whether they actually use those guys, even though they're not maybe as good as some of the radius, just to get the platoon advantage or whether they just ride with righties, which is served them well thus far. Yeah, I mean, I guess, I don't know. I kind of like, I kind of want them to just leave all the lefties off and just ride with the radius they've had. And let's see how it goes. I kind of want them to do that. 'cause it's just a cool thing. Yep. All right, well, lots of interesting storylines surrounding the series as we have discussed and I just, I hope it's good and competitive and not another sweep and not a short series. I hope we get at least one long one that just goes 6 or 7 here because we have not had that thus far. Okay, so let's transition to some prospect stuff in some international ball. I did want to ask you one question that we got yesterday from someone who might as well have known that you were going to be on this episode because this is the type of question I like asking you. So this is from Marcus, who said, do you think Aaron judge and jar Carl Stanton success in the majors has had an effect on the way scouts and GMs view taller position players with the rise of O'Neill Cruz and prospects like James wood and Spencer Jones, it seems like they're more young position players who are 6 6 and taller, our front office is starting to value size more when it comes to drafting and scouting. Ultimately, do you think the average height of position players in MLB will start growing over the next ten years? I guess I should stipulate average sizes basically always growing red has grown over the long term. I think maybe the growth is slowed a little lately, I think last time I looked at least for position players, but people get taller athletes get taller. But for the extreme tall guys, do you think the success of judge were Cruz who I guess success spotty still sometimes, but is there more open mindedness for tall guys? It's an interesting question. I would be curious to know if the rate of growth is changing relative to our general population, I would guess probably not. There's going to be a selection bias, right? The problem with taller, longer levered hitters, is that their lever length tends to become a problem against growing big league velocity. It is just harder for guys like that to be on time. Sometimes, and I think with O'Neill Cruz, this will likely be true with LE de la Cruz and Ronnie Mauricio, who will talk about again at some point on this pod. It will be true. We're even when there's above average swing and miss. If there's enough else going on if there's enough power or there's sufficient power for the position these guys are able to play, you can get away with that. I actually think that, you know, the unknown variable here is how does no more shifting have an impact on the type of athletes that play infield will we see a return to a certain type of athlete one more akin to what we had before, like immediately before the current era of heavy shifting, which has been going on for about ten years, you know, more ray or done as types will they be around, is rains just enough of a factor on the infield. Again, that Xander bogarts doesn't play shortstop anymore. And do we see smaller athletes playing those positions again? But I think again, there's a selection bias, Aaron judge at his size has a very special ability to tuck his hands in, stay short to the ball and still barrel stuff on the inner third of the plates. And like for every one Aaron judge, who obviously is a size sort of on his own. He is like statistical noise because of how big he is. Giancarlo Stanton is not necessarily frond mill Reyes is not necessarily. So, you know, Louis Brinson is 6 foot four. The question surrounding him as a prospect was is this guy gonna hit enough with levers this long. And throughout the miners, the answer to that question was, yes, yes, yes. And then he got to the big leagues in. It was a resounding no, Monte Harris and same thing. So like, there are still plenty of hitters who have above average or better size who don't succeed who we are just not hearing about who aren't at the forefront of your consciousness because they're not succeeding. Carlos de la Cruz in the Philly system is like 6 foot 8. He's here in folly right now. I don't know what's going to happen with that guy like his size is freaky, the fact that he succeeded to the degree he has already is notable. But he is not like the
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"Also, he just was like, yeah, I was pretty amazing, but now I'm going to be more amazing. And I'm going to throw this 100 mph sinker that gets this ridiculous lateral movement, and then in his most recent start, he started throwing like a new slider variant that has different movement. He's basically is you Darvish now where he just will invent new pitches periodically and just add them to his vast repertoire. So that's been a ton of fun. And I'm kind of looking forward to him going into nexus with all of these extra weapons that he's added during this season, having them for the full year next year should be pretty fun. I say all this after the angels have been eliminated from playoff extension. So we won't have to talk about that. But Otani specifically been pretty fun to watch on the mend as well. Yeah, I mean. I'm not going to ask this in a gambling way, but like Ben. If you had to ballpark the odds, what are the odds are that shoyu Tony's in a different uniform come opening in next year? Oh, man. Well, the odds for opening day 2024 extremely high, the odds for opening day 2023. Gosh, what with all the uncertainty about ownership, it's hard to forecast now. Right. I got to think there is a significant chance. Like, I don't know if I want to go as high as 50 50, that seems maybe too high, just because having Otani is pretty valuable to your team, even if your team is bad and not contending because lots of extra eyeballs and sales and attendance and just interest in your team as depressing as the angels are imagine how depressing they would be without Cortana. And without trout, I guess in a way they would be less depressing because they'd just be a generic, terrible team. Right. Whereas now they're a team with two great superstars. So we're still not good. But they would be completely unwatchable all the time, not just when those two guys and maybe a couple others are playing so. I think there's a lot of incentive to keep him even more so than there would be for just your run of the mill really good player just because he brings so much intrigue and attention that a typical excellent star does not. So I'm in here and I don't really know exactly where to put the number. But I guess I'll put it at like 40%. Okay. That feels, you know, that feels kind of right, right? You know, I'm not advocating for it. I think angels fans have so little, even as they have so much. What a weird, what a weird team they are, right? They're just like, but the ownership thing, clouds the picture, and you're not quite sure, and you think about what how they can maximize return for it, but, you know, you have, in addition to having a new ownership group that's going to want butts in seats, they might, and I don't say this knowing anything or wishing that anyone loses their job, but they might bring in new front office staff of their own. They might want to have their own folks, right? And that might complicate a trade. I don't know, I've just been noodling on it. In my mind's eye, this winter, whose uniform should I picture him and it'll be angels until it isn't, but you know, I don't know that that will end up being quite right. Yeah. People have written in lately about the Otani FTX ad, which has been upsetting people for multiple reasons. In an FDX ads, which is a cryptocurrency exchange. So we have the umpires wearing FTX logos and we have Otani plugging that to we've mentioned that before it is one of his few imperfections, perhaps, but people are also upset because at the end of that ad, which has been on heavy rotation lately, he bets righty. And one shot. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if that's an error, whether they just reversed the footage. Yeah. By accident, which seems like it would be hard to not to do initially maybe, but to still be running it that way. We're just an oversight. I kind of like to think that maybe he was just messing around and actually hitting. I got to look at it more closely to see if I can tell if it was just reversed or if he was actually standing there, but I would think that as a right handed pitcher and a left handed hitter, how hard could it be for him if he wanted to be a switch hitter in addition to a two way player? Would that not be doable for him? I mean, he already has the ability to use each of his arms to do something pretty impressive. So can he just combine them? I love that you're like, I'm not satisfied with the unicorn I have. I have to make him a different kind of unicorn than he already is another magical unicorn. This one is not enough. I know that's not what you're saying. You love him with the whole part of your heart that is an occupied by your family, but I don't know if it's probably pretty hard. A lot of people who switch hit aren't very good at it. Yeah, but how many of them pitch at an elite level with the opposite hip? Sure. Sure. Not any, but I mean, just like, how many, how many things do you expect him to be able to do? A lot. Pretty much all of them. Until proven otherwise, I expect him to be able to do everything, except steel pieces at a high success rate, I guess. Or persuade you to trade crypto, apparently. Yeah, that too. He has not had a whole lot of luck. Every card either. You're not keen for us to take on like a crypto sponsor. Mayor him very much as a person as a player, but not so much as a spokesperson. I do like when we get those PR emails, they're like, we want to talk to you about NFTs, and I'm like, no, you don't. No, you don't. Well, you might, but it's not mutual. So I'm not suggesting that he should do that or that this is something that's missing from his game. It's just if you're going to put that footage in front of me. Sure. How can I not dream a wonder? Speaking of giant unicorns, I wanted to give an update on O'Neill Cruz because the thing has happened where we talk about someone not doing so well and then he starts doing pretty well. So we talked about him on an episode that was published on August 24th, I believe it was episode 1893. He had something like a 76 WRC plus through that point and the crux of our conversation was that he had really impressive tools and he'd been a statcast star, but he was sort of exposing that you need more than that to actually be a valuable baseball player because he was a sub replacement player I believe at that point and just was struggling defensively and was struggling plate discipline wise and it's just not quite enough to be the best in class at speed and throwing arm and power and everything if you don't also have these ancillary skills which turn out to be pretty crucial. Well, since then, he's done pretty well. Since that point, he has a one 52 WRC plus in 94 plate appearances with 7 dingers, not bad. Has he struck out upwards of 39% of the time? Yes. Yes, he has. Of course he has. Does he have a three 78 babip over that period? Also, yes. But he's been pretty impressive and he's always impressive, I guess, but he's been impressive in a slightly more well rounded way. He still makes his miscues on the field for sure.
DeGrom fans 13 over 5 innings, Mets sweep Pirates
"The Met scored four runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to beat the pirate 7 to three to sweep the four game series and remain in first place in the national league east one game up on the braves Met pitches had 20 strikeouts which tied a major league record and impressed met skipper buck showalter I think the thing I was most proud of the fact we didn't walk anybody No it's Alps for Alps but when you think how hard how hard it is to do and how infrequent has been it gets your attention Jacob de Grom had 13 strikeouts but left in the 6th after surrendering a three run Homer to O'Neill Cruz Mike mancuso New York
"neill cruz" Discussed on Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney
"I'm good. I'm getting a lot of texts these days for my Mariners fans out in Seattle. They're very hyped up and I've been watching the mets lately, buster, what's going on there, huh? Yeah, it's not good. And in fact, just before we got started, breaking news. The mets be reporters, I'm sure getting the information from the mets PR staff that max Scherzer is going to the injured list, of course, spent 7 weeks in the IL earlier this year because of an abdominal issue. He had to come out of his last start after only 67 pitches because he had fatigue and the same area, data, look, I think this is absolutely devastating for a team that woke up today tied for first place in the national league east because even if you put them in the injured list and give them some time to be a little bit more healthy the next time he returns the mound. The bottom line is he's not going to be right the rest of the year. What's your take? Yeah, no. I mean, huge, huge concern. Obviously, we don't know the extent of the injury and how long he's going to be out, but there's not much time left in the season. So not a lot of time to bounce back if he does return for the playoffs. A terrible few days, you know, those back to back losses to the nationals over the weekend, 7 to one in both games. The pirates hammer and last night and of course the braves once down ten and a half games have tied them. I think you gotta pick the braves at this point doing that division. I've been sticking with the mets all along until these last four days and I gotta go with the braves now. Yeah, I just want to pause the mets braves conversation to ask you about O'Neill Neil Cruz's home run last night and the Allegheny. Have you ever seen a home run like that? Because when I watched it live, I was like, what? Are you kidding me? It was, it felt like about a 430 foot line drive. Yeah, although we had admitted buster, it wasn't even the longest home run of the night last night. Maybe I'm sure you mentioned Christian Yelich is 499 foot home run in the highlights, but yeah, O'Neill Cruz, look, we know he's got a lot of improvement in his game, the work on it. If it comes together, this kid is going to be unbelievable because his raw tools, the power of the arm, and we've seen all the highlights throughout the year. Man, I hope he just learns to play the game, improve the strength zone, all those little things that will help him become a star, because he's got the ability. The phrase used in the home run call was cruise missile, and that's exactly right. I mean, that's the perfect description for that. All right, back to mets and braves. Look, you know, this is going to be a test of the metric strength of schedule. I think going down the stretch because on paper, the mets have a distinct advantage. The braves face 13 teams going forward with records over 500 or 500 or better. And the mets phase 16s with records of 500 or better, but you noted, the fact that the mets in recent days they've lost the nationals, they've lost to the pirates. So, you know, folks in baseball, I think don't look at strength of schedule as say when we look at the NFL or when we look at the NBA because on a given day in baseball, you just never know. What do you believe in the strike, the schedule metric? Yeah. So I do. I look at it a lot. I probably obsess over a little more than I should. It is important, though I know all the guys that crunch the numbers and put that into the computer, say it's not as important as we think it is. As you said, buster, it's not easy even to go in and sweep a bad team all the time, series after series. But it's a factor that is a slight advantage for the mets. You know, these last few weeks, but it's not a tell all. It doesn't mean the mets are going to win the division. But it's just another factor to look at. Yeah, and I talked on the podcast yesterday about, you know, when the history of this division race is written and the braves actually do wind up winning the division, I hope no one writes that the mets blew it. The way we would write if the Yankees blew it, because that's not at all accurate. This is a case of the braves playing out of their minds, I recently in a related story, I think last week or yesterday about being in the braves Clubhouse for Sunday Night baseball walking up to one member of the organization saying, look, I think on paper, you guys are a better team than you were when you won the World Series last year. And without pause, he goes, I completely agree with you. Because this team is phenomenal right now and really has been since June 1st and really has been since promoting Michael Harris the second to play center field and putting Spencer strider in the rotation. Yeah, I was just going to bring those two guys up, that's exactly when that turnaround began. You know, Michael Harris called up May 28th. Yeah, brave only one 88 games last year. They got hot, obviously in October with all those outfielders, a bullpen that hadn't really been that great during the regular season was lights out in the playoffs. This team much deeper,
Odorizzi Ks 7, Harris homers; Braves top Pirates 2-1
"Michael Harris the second's two run home run in the 5th proved to be enough as the braves beat the pirates two to one Harris opposite field shot was his 13th long ball of the season Two three years in the minors I don't think I had ten added up so I have 13 now I'm really surprised I'm just trying to go out there and make hard contact J go to rezi toss 6 innings of one run ball striking out 7 as the braves won for a 12th time in 14 games O'Neill Cruz hit his tenth home run for the pirates ronzi Contreras allowed just the two runs over 7 innings but took the loss Josh Valtteri Pittsburgh
Orioles run winning streak to 5 with 6-3 win over Pirates
"The Orioles picked up their 5th straight win by doubling up the pirates 6 to three Pinch hitter Ryan McKenna provided a two run double that put the birds ahead 5 two in the 5th inning Brett Phillips hit an RBI double that made it three zero but the bucks pulled within a run on a two run Homer by O'Neill Cruz Baltimore won for the 21st time in 28 games after entering the day one and a half games out of the final wild card birth Winning pitcher Austin both allowed three runs before the O's bullpen tossed four innings of shutout ball JT brubaker fell to two and ten reached for three runs and 8 hits in four innings I'm Dave ferry
Reynolds' leadoff HR in 9th powers Pirates past Brewers 8-7
"Brian Reynolds launched his solo Homer 425 feet in the 9th inning as the pirates walked off the brewers 8 7 Reynolds had three hits including the long ball keeping Derek Shelton's team away from extra innings in a bullpen game Off the crack of the bat it was like we're gonna play in about 12 hours and we just we just saved a bullpen arm because we went through our entire bullpen today so that was my first thought O'Neill Cruz hit his 8th Homer of the year for the pirates Willie Adams drove in four runs for Milwaukee which leads the NL central by a game and a half Josh rowntree Pittsburgh
Phillies extend win streak to 4 with 2-1 win over Pirates
"A fielding gamble allowed the Phillies to beat the pirates in ten innings two to one Rhys Hoskins led off the tenth with a sharp grounder to Michael chavis at first base rather than step on the bag javis tried to cut down ghost runner DD Gregorius as he ran from second to third the throw handcuffed third baseman could Brian Hayes and rolled away into foul territory allowing Gregorius to scamper home JT real Muto had two of Philadelphia's 6 hits including his tenth Homer of the season leading off the 6th Corey Ken Abel worked two scoreless settings to get the win picking off O'Neill Cruz at second base to start the tenth I'm Dave ferry
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"But the idea is just through some combination of data and my opinion and some cross checking with teams. I would say a variable amount over time. What are the best trades, chips and baseball? If everyone was put up on a trade auction tomorrow, who would people be willing to trade the most for? It is inherently pretty speculative. Teams don't actually probably have this list because why would they? It's not particularly useful for them. It just doesn't matter where José Ramírez falls now that he's not being traded. And I think it kind of happens on a case by case basis with teams like, oh, this guy's available. Let's see how good we think he is. That kind of thing. But it's fun. It's fun to put everyone on one list and yeah, that's basically the point of it is to put everyone on one list like, hey, if your guy could have this guy on his team could have this guy in his current contract and you get one, who would you want? And okay, like, is this guy better than that guy? Everyone loves saying is this guy better than that guy, basically. And that's the genesis of the list. About my process, so actually, I want to tell you about a new method I invented this year. I think it's really solid and that more people should use when making lists in general. Okay, so the first thing to do is do a lot of data gathering and research. So in my case, I cajole dens and giving me 5 year zips projections for the top. I don't know a hundred, 110 or so players in baseball. I took a bunch of projections that I found various places. I used some research I had done on average arbitration payouts to make kind of an expected salary grid. And I used that with some random weightings, not random, but some was weighted in terms of whether a player would deliver excess value relative to the free agent market. Some was how good they're going to be next year because I think teams care about that. And the better you are next year, the more they're willing to give up. Some was length of team control and that matters a lot as well. So I blended those and came up with a kind of a metric space first pass. Okay, so this is the important step. The next step was that I drank two beers. That's actually really key to this. And I ranked them. One through 50. And then I saved that in a spreadsheet, and then I forgot about it for a weekend. Actually, one on vacation to Hawaii. I'm liking a lot of the parts of this process. I'm going to Hawaiian sounds great. That sounds great. Then I came back, and without looking at that old list I'd made. I made another list of 50. And then I looked at the comparisons of the two, and I think that gave me a good like, hey, why did I think this about this guy? Why did I think that about that guy? And they mostly agreed. They agreed in large part and the top was the same and the cuts were in roughly the same place where it's like these guys are incredible. These guys are pretty good. These guys are top 50 trade values, but very clearly not in the top ten. But the difference is really kind of helped sharpen my mind and also I feel like when I'm making a list, there's some path dependencies right word where because I put this guy here and then I put this guy here. But if I had looked at them in a different order, I might have put them different places. So by doing it twice and not completely remembering the first time, like being a little buzzed in a different state of mind, that actually helps. I think quite a bit. Can I ask who benefited the most from two beers? Do you remember? I'm trying to think. I think O'Neil Cruz benefited the most from two beers. That's great. It's just so big and fast. There was a comment this week that you gotta look skeptically at some of the guys who don't have good statcast metrics and the majors so far look on your cruise. And I was like, what? What? He's mister stack gas. And from there, I sent it to some people that we know who worked for team. Listen to some people we know who are baseball analysts in the public side. I sent it to the fan graft staff, kind of just socialized the list around and had them tell me what I was being stupid or when I was overrated or underrated someone by a lot. We tried to figure out names I was missing because it's just, there's just so many baseball players. Yeah. There's so many. There's so many good baseball players too. It's fairly clear. I think our greatest fear with this exercise is not that we have like wildly misjudged the value of a player, but that we have forgotten someone entirely who should be on there. Like that is the thing that keeps me up at night before we go live with the honorable mentions. Because once that happens, we're locked in to a population of people, right? Yeah, so it's not one for one a list of the best players in baseball. There's no Aaron judge on this list, even though he is on pace to hit 63 home runs, which is ridiculous. That would be the American League record. I am looking forward to following that over the next couple of months, but those couple of months are the only months that stand between him and free agency. So if the Yankees were for some reason to decide to trade, Aaron judge right now, which would be quite controversial, I think we have intermittent attending now who needs Aaron judge. Yeah, I don't think it works that way. But if they thought, well, we can not re sign Aaron judge. We tried to sign him to an extension and didn't work out, so we're just going to deal him. Well, you wouldn't get as much as you would for the players you ranked, even though he is unbelievable and is in the middle of this incredible record chase. He is about to be a free agent, so a lot of this skews toward team control years. And so O'Neill Cruz is a good example, right? Because you noted in your blurb for him that it was really hard to place him and that's because it's hard to figure out what O'Neil Cruz is going to be and we talked about this when he first came up. He had that great game where he just like ran really fast and hit up all really hard and threw a ball really hard and all those things were really impressive, but as we noted at the time, like they don't undo his weaknesses and vulnerabilities as a player we know he has these great physical skills and tools, but he also has some issues with his game and those have shown up because he's actually been a below average MLB hitter so far this year. So like how do you decide where to put him? Because he's so talented and he's just so under team control that you have to have him somewhere, but he could end up being one of the best players in baseball or he could end up like making you look silly a few years down the road because it turns out that he doesn't have the plate discipline or whatever to actually be a star. Yeah. I did a few things to try to account for that. One is I look at past trade returns and see the styles of players at teams tend to covet the most, which is to say like, I think teams want big
"neill cruz" Discussed on Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney
"I grew up with a balanced schedule and so the teams that I would follow, I would listen to they would play the same number of games against teams that they weren't rivals with. And I just, I wasn't wild about it. Reggie at baseball Yoda weather writes and buster, you talked about how the reds would not want to move a Luis Castillo in division to the cardinals with the bound schedule coming in 2023, the number of divisional series drops from 6 to four, which in my view creates more reasons to do a divisional deal as bob nightingale also pointed out earlier in the podcast. Yeah, and look, personally, if I were a general manager, my feeling would be like, I would love to do division. I would have no problem doing a division deal. In fact, if you follow the logic, you're feeling would be like, you know what? I'm going to have enough confidence myself to make a trade where I'm pulling prospects out of your organization moving forward for that player. I think I can win that. It's like, you know, one on one duel. But you know where that really comes into play is that the ownership level, like bob castellini, who owns the reds, he's got past connections with the cardinals and that could be a place where he injects himself into the process. And that's pure speculation where if the reds are sitting there, they have an offer on the table from, say, the Dodgers from the Yankees from the Cardinals wouldn't be surprised to see bob castellini say, you know what? I like the offer from one of those other teams. I don't want to put them on the Cardinals. Up next, we've got tango at N den 42 rights. And Jordan walker is rated higher in the prospect rankings than mason win, but with the impending cap on number of roster spots for pitchers would clubs value a guy like win more because he could give his team some relief innings without claiming a pitcher's spot on the roster. Some, yeah, I think some, but I don't think it would be a big number. It wouldn't move it necessarily. I think teams value flexibility, especially the end of spring training. A couple of regulars here to close out the bleacher tweets, PK Steinberg writes in, is there typically more pressure on the first base coach or the third base coach. Third base coach, because the third base coach, you know, has that decision whether or not to wave a runner home or to stop the runner and there's much more focus on that where some of the times when a first base coach might make it make a mistake. I don't think people really even notice it or even talk about it, not like they do with a third base coat. I mean, shoot, you remember last year in the wild card game in the American legal conversation around Phil Nevin, should he have sent Aaron judge who got thrown at an own play by Xander Bogart that that is not something that's going to be said about the first base coach. Literally lost his job over it. Yep, Mitchell at tigers of Detroit writes in. Do you think the podges will, I'm sorry, do you think the pirates will offer O'Neal Cruz, a similar deal to the one they cut with cabra and Hayes, which potential free agent signings do you see them making to compliment the young core, or do they still have a little more tanking to do? So I know internally some of the feeling among the pirates folks are that there's enough progress there that they feel like they have a chance to contend next year. I don't think they're going to tank. That doesn't mean they're going to spend a lot of money. But I don't think they're going to design failure for next year. And one thing that's a little bit different. Yes, I'm sure they'll try to sign O'Neill Cruz, but one difference between the two is that Hayes has had these series of injuries which I'm sure has made him feel a little bit more insecure and maybe grab for that offer in a way that I don't think as O'Neill Cruz necessarily would. Mister jakey RS writes in the athletics have won 5 of 7 and back to back series this muddiest thing some more do you think what this turnaround do you think the a should be buyers or sellers? I think he's kind of messing with us, you know, the question. Come on, mister Jake. Feels like a little sarcasm. Yes? Yes, it gotta be. Come on, they're sellers. And if you think otherwise been screw your head on straight, last one for today, Gary Carr, my guy, he writes in the Orioles have a better record than the Giants. I am fairly certain. No one had that on their July 27th bingo card. No. Chewed. How many wins do they have now? The warriors. They have like 50 wins now. 50 years of yesterday. Yeah, I think the over under that I was saying, I would definitely take the under, was like 62 and a half. So that's not looking too good. I would agree with you, Gary. All righty, that does it for bleacher tweets hashtag bleacher tweets on Twitter while you're watching games this week and don't forget Tim and buster on ESPN's YouTube page on Monday's episodes. You should listen to the episode, but you can watch them wave their arms around and we're going to deliver that information to Tim about his speech. Yeah, that'll be fun. All right, that's it for today. That's it for this week. My thanks to Carl, bob hambo, Sarah and Taylor, have a great day everybody. Thanks for listening. Stay safe and remember hating it and quality based on skin color or something we need to fight against. Every single day. Derek Jeter was in a fish bowl from the minute he arrived in New York.
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"Season, but it was in the Australian guys like they come over here and especially when they're young and they're getting their feet under them in terms of being like a pro athlete. So that was going on. Obviously everyone knows about how hard mason win can throw now, which is nice. I was going to ask you about that because that was like everyone was obsessing over O'Neill Cruz with his 97 point whatever it was and then mason wouldn't just flows that away with 100.5. I know he was drafted as a two way guy, although he's been a position player in the minors thus far for the Cardinals and shortstop, but like I had to watch that clip a few times because I thought like it skipped a frame or something or like I was watching it sped up and it was funny too 'cause like he didn't have to gun it over there like that because the runner was out by like several steps and it was just like I am showing off for the scouts and the fans here, which hey good for him but like if you could do that and granted like he had time and he took a few steps and he gathered himself but like if you could do that what can you do off a mound? Like should he be pitching? So I was sitting with a GM and an AGM and a pro director during the futures game and they looked over at me and they were like, is he still pitching? And I said, no, and they all scoffed. So when was actually kind of tough to scout during his showcase summer and part of it was because he wasn't really pitching and so there might have been some injury stuff there. It wasn't really clear he was drafted basically as a shortstop. So I haven't done work retroactively to see what was going on there but when he was pitching on the mound as a 17 year old he was a ridiculously athletic three to 6 with a hammer breaking ball. He's just a wee guy. So I think there were durability concerns and the fact that he didn't throw very much at times was feeding into that or maybe there was something that was causing it, but his end zone contact rates in his chase rates are very good. He's a disciplined hitter. He still, in terms of the measurable power, his peak exit velocities or like a 30 on the scale, but during BP, it's closer to like 40, 45 looking raw. But he's a baby in double-A, so maybe that's part of why the exit villas are not so he is obviously you can see what he can do at shortstop. Having an arm like that will cover up some other ills for some guys and this guy doesn't really have anything like that going on. He's rangy and athletic and all that other stuff. You hardly need range if you can throw that hard. It's just like you can stay back. I think off the top of my head there are like four or 5 guys on the board who have 80 arm grades entering the year. So it was O'Neill Cruz, mason wynne. Who make a scene like really aired out? Yeah, jeez. Megan, I read Mariners White Sox spring training game and he hosed. He hos the runner tagging from second to third from the warning track and basically dead center field. It was pretty spectacular. It was one of the better throws I've seen. And then one of the guys who the royals called up as part of their ten unvaccinated Canada trip. So Nathan Eaton, who's I've seen play like third base and right field. I think that guy's got an 8 arm as well. So people should be on the lookout for that guy. Nathan Eaton, he's an interesting kind of utility type in the royal system. Anybody else in the futures game really blow me away? I mean, young kensi Noel in The Guardian system, 21 year old third base first base, probably first base. He's had some of the big race that he lives in the miners for a little while now, but he's also been much more physical than the players. He's typically played against at the lower levels of the miners and this year he's finally reached the upper levels. His batting practice was kind of ridiculous. Bobby Miller, the guy who started for the NL team Dodgers prospect, was sitting a hundred plus plus change ups through one really good curve ball at 80 miles an hour, a bunch of good sliders at 86. Fastball shape is not the best, it's never really been the best. But there's just enough going on there that he's quite good. I want to say that that's about it. I got to figure out what I want to do with Taj Bradley with Tampa Bay. He's in that Spencer strider area where I believe in this fastball, it's meant to upper 90s with huge carry, his delivery is super athletic and easy, he's just pumping fastballs past everyone. And he's got this like upper 80s cutter thing, which sometimes is pretty good at other times sucks. And that's basically what Spencer strider was until basically two or three starts after I saw him here in Arizona when all his secondary pitches got harder by about three miles an hour. I don't know if he's just throwing the crap out of them or if they actually made a change.
Pirates hit 4 homers to beat Brewers 8-6, win series
"The pirates homeward four times and taking the rubber match of their three game series with the brewers 8 6 Rookie O'Neill Cruz hit a tie breaking Homer in the 6th inning and Daniel vogelbach added a three run blast in the 9th to make it 8 four Michael chavis and Kei Brian Hayes also went deep for the bucks with chavis tying it in the 6th Andrew mccutcheon belted a two run Homer in the night for the brewers whose lead in the NL central is now two and a half games over the Cardinals Louis Syria has had two RBIs from Milwaukee I'm Dave
Gamel HR highlights Pirates' 4-3 comeback win over Brewers
"The pirates put together a four run 7th to pull out a four three win over the brewers Brandon Woodruff was leading three zero and working on a one hitter until Pittsburgh broke through Former brewer Ben gamble capped the rally with a two run Homer two batters after O'Neill Cruz sliced an RBI double that chased woodroof Milwaukee had a chance to tie it in the 7th but will he Adams was thrown out at the plate trying to score on a bouncer to first The outcome keeps the NL central leading brew crew three and a half games ahead of the Cardinals I'm Dave
"neill cruz" Discussed on Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney
"Now, AJ preller is willing to move guys that you wouldn't think he would move and go after guys who you wouldn't think he would go after. And yet I look at the Padres and it feels like they need a bat like a Brian Reynolds would be perfect for them. I still don't think Brian Reynolds is going to move because I feel like the pirates are maybe on the verge of something. They're not there yet. But with O'Neill Cruz who looks at every bit the star that his tools say he can be. With Brian Hayes with Nick Gonzalez coming with Jack swanky, having all that power in the outfield and Reynolds there with some pitchers on the verge as well. I don't know, Pittsburgh feels a little bit like where Ken just city is, which is that you need to start adding guys to this core that you have in place. And you need to start spending some money. So preller loves to go for moonshots and Brian Reynolds at this point feels like a moonshot. But if he's willing to give up CJ Abrams, you know, at that point, the pirates have to at least listen. And he's been willing to give up top prospects in the past. I'm fascinated by the decision the Orioles are facing because they obviously this has been a year of progress. They're playing better. They're nudging toward 500. And on the other hand, this is their play in the American League east. They're probably four teams are going to make the playoffs out of the east. The oils are almost certainly not going to be one of them. What do you do? If you're the ownership and you feel like you're turning the corner and you have all these marketable players. I got to say, I kind of dig watching the Orioles, you know, just some of the reclamation projects there. I've seen Jorge Lopez fail a number of places and now he's throwing 99 with nasty breaking stuff in his first real full run at the bulb. But I trade Jorge Lopez. Trey Mancini is a superstar human being. And a great addition to any Clubhouse and a leader in Baltimore and someone who's been the Paragon of consistency. And I probably trade him too. Because the Orioles are getting to a point right now where I think they need to start running themselves like they're going to be here soon. Like all of these high draft picks, whether it's adley rushman, Colton cowser, we have seen heston Kerry stag come back finally. It's getting to the point where they have to start to try and win. And they're not there yet. So you remain, as long as the rules are in place, here you remain in asset building. Hate to say it, but not like they got a ton of fans turning out right now who they're going to scare off with this. And it's been a pretty grim situation there for a while and frankly, you gotta see the plan through. But we're getting close to not cutting time. They're in Baltimore. They need to start trying to be competitive, we've had enough enough tankage going on for franchise for a while. I wonder about Cedric Mullins. I think he would be, for example, a great fit with the Astros. You see where
"neill cruz" Discussed on Big Time Baseball
"Keep Ryan fantastic defensively especially. O'Neill Cruz is quite a talent in terms of in terms of tools and take Otani out of the picture because I mean, it's not fair. I mean, he's got the greatest tools of all type probably. But among the regular players, scouts tell me that O'Neil Cruz has as good a tools as anybody. He's got the great arm, he's got great speed, and he obviously has great power. So, I mean, this is one of the most talented guys in baseball right up there with tatis and the other superstars of the game. One interesting note that I was pointing out to me I didn't realize he's actually believe it or not older than once Soto one Soto is three weeks younger than Cruz. So I'm not giving my apology to Pittsburgh yet because I suspect I kind of suspect he should have been in the majors by now. Yep, seems like it absolutely seems like it. But here's the thing right now, he's shot up to the top of the NL rookie of the year futures as far as the gambling lines go. Do you think that do you think it's a little inflated because I think this is Mackenzie gore's award to lose? Yeah, I mean, I'll go with a guy who's really done something to this point in Mackenzie gore is pitching like an ace and he's probably second best pitcher on that team to must grow up right now, but pitching like an ace or a team that's right in the thick of things. I mean, you know, he's got a 65 game head start and so I know Neil Cruz, you know, guys have won and a half a year. Willie mccovey was this before you were Cody. But he won The Rookie of the year and a half a year. It's possible to do it. Can be done. It's been done a couple times. It's not that easy though. So I think the future is maybe getting a little ahead of themselves on that one. I would go with gore. We'll see what happens here. I agree with that. I do think the future's got a little ahead of themselves. Although, you know, 6, 6 straight games with an RBI to start your career is not a bad way to start. Boston Red Sox. You mentioned them surging. The AL east in fact currently, every playoff spot, it seems available. They currently have at hand. You can make the argument best division in baseball. I personally think it might be the NL west, but you can make a very good argument for both of these divisions. Red Sox. I mean, how real are they with the pitching that they currently have? Can they sustain this? The rays are going to start getting a little healthier, water Franco coming back. Hopefully get a few more bodies over there, but do you think this team is real and can sustain this second place spot? Well, don't ask me about the Red Sox. I come back and forth on them. I had them as a playoff team to start. I gave up on them. I cursed myself out on Twitter for picking them to be in the playoffs and now look at them. They're in second place. So they've done it quickly. They have great hitting. They've got three guys getting way over 300, two, three, and four in the batting title race in the American League are Devers. And JD Martinez. So that's a big advantage to have that kind of hitting right there in your lineup. So, you know, I think there are good team, which is what I thought to begin with. I think they're a little short of pitching. I've been seeing shale comes back healthy, that'll be a big plus, but that has been really good. I'm a big faith that involved still a little shaky with that bullpen. You know, doesn't feel like anybody's really going to challenge the Yankees or the Astros. They just saw that series this weekend, those teams look but the best to me, but Boston certainly a playoff team. As I predicted and then of course went back on. I like this team. I do think if they can get a, it's the arms that scare me more than anything else. I think they're offensively, they can go toe to toe with just about anybody, but they just, there's something about their inconsistency. You mentioned how they go hot and cold. That hot and cold streaks just scare the living hell out of me. That makes me think that the rays can just get the spot back. Not to mention the Toronto Blue Jays man. The Blue Jays, I think on paper, I thought they'd be the best team, obviously the Yankees are the best team. You know, I think Toronto, Rios is not quite what he'd been, you know, I still feel like with manoa gausman, even with Rio out, I think they're going to add in our, you know, they got a great closer in Romero, Romano. I just feel like the Blue Jays are the second best team in that division. And in the end, I think they'll finish second, but to me that's the best division. I probably went away from them when the west was doing so great for a long time, but I think the alias is the best. Now that I see Baltimore beating up on teams outside of the division and, you know, to me they're not bad. And the other four are really good, so I think that's the best division. I think Toronto's probably the second best team in there. I have a theory, and it's about the Minnesota Twins. That one way or the other, one way or another, the Minnesota Twins will sneak into the playoffs. They're currently leading their division, but I kindly look at them that they're not a real first place team. I mean, I look at other teams. I look at the Astros and we're like, yeah, that's a first place team. The Yankees. That's the first place team. I just don't feel the same way about the Minnesota Twins. But isn't this how it always happens? A team like this kind of sneaks into the playoffs and they face a juggernaut like the Yankees who have a history that it's almost like in the twins bylaws that they have to lose to the Yankees and the ALDS every year. Don't have to play the Yankees again. The record in the postseason against the Yankees. They won a game. It's ridiculous. It's not fair. I hope they don't have to do it, but yeah, I'm with you. I understand what you're saying. But based on this, doesn't this just seem like I was watching the twins last night thinking, is this the year with the twins that I truly don't think there are real first place team and the Yankees who everyone, including myself agrees might be the greatest team ever that somehow this is the year that the twins get past the Yankees in October, I can't imagine, but no. It would be a hell of a story. No, I hope for this sake that they get to play somebody else and I think we'll see how it shakes out, but at this point I don't think they would have to play them in the first go around, but as things stand now, the Yankees of the Astros would get the buy, but even the next round, as things shake out, it doesn't appear they would, but you never know how things go..
"neill cruz" Discussed on WTOP
"At 15 and 45 powered by maximus. Moving people and technology forward. That means it's time for rob wood fork. All right, they're kind of going in the wrong direction over there at national spark, let's get alive update from Dave Preston live to the ballpark. Well, the wrong cruise went yard. Rob nationals trail chew nothing now in the 5th inning, Pittsburgh padding their lead with the home run by O'Neill Cruz a two out Homer in the 5th Josh van meter sack fly in the second putting the visitors on the board. Nats have had their chances, but have left 6 on base. They fit into a pair of double plays Eric fetty night likely done having thrown 100 pitches, 55 strikes the third most of his 15 starts this year nationals trail the pirates, two zero in the 5th. Thank you, Dave, the Orioles, they'll get started a little over an hour and a half from now with my math is correct. They open a three game series in Seattle at ten ten, the red hot. Tyler wells set to pitch opposite the Mariners George Kirby ahead of NBA free agency, which is slated to kick off Wednesday. Kyrie Irving told the athletic today he's exercising his $36.5 million option with the Brooklyn Nets for the upcoming season, so that would take a sign and trade off the table, the nets though could still ship him off as an expiring contract and the football world is mourning the loss of one of the greatest NFL players you perhaps never heard of. Marlon Briscoe, the first black starting quarterback in the AFL, that lost his battle to stay in that position, died today at the age of 76, you can read more about him on WTO dot com. Rob woodwork WTO sports. The top stories we're following for you tonight on WTO, Amtrak officials and the NTSB are responding to the scene in northern Missouri where a passenger train derailed this afternoon three people are dead dozens more are hurt. We'll continue to update you on the situation out of Missouri here on WTO and WTO P dot com. In a surprise move, the House select committee looking into the capital insurrection has set a hearing for tomorrow afternoon that will feature what it calls recently obtained evidence last week the panel adjourned until July and the Supreme Court has ruled in favor of a high school football coach from Washington state who lost his job for praying at midfield after games. The 6 to three majority said the coach's prayer was protected by the First Amendment. Stay with WTO for more on these stories in just minutes. The White House is set to resume its full public tour schedule after a series of pandemic disruptions. Donald Trump canceled the tours as the pandemic began and then resumed them in September 2020 in a bid to project normalcy. They were again suspended once President Biden took office and had been held on a limited basis the past two months. The White House says the free tours will resume a normal schedule next month, with tours Tuesday through Saturday, except on federal holidays. The administration says that will watch the COVID situation and things could change again. Masks will be optional, but available for anyone who wants them, Sagar Meghani, Washington. Traffic
"neill cruz" Discussed on Behind the Bets
"Tonight. You can watch on ESPN2 from 6 to 7 p.m.. And I know one of our producers sent us an email asking us for some Major League Baseball futures plays that we like. Is there one that you're eyeing right now, Chris? Well, yeah, the one I'm Michael Harris to a nationally rookie of the year. The best numbers obviously are long gone so if you didn't get in on him at the 30, 40, 25, 2050. The numbers consistently drop, but the fact that O'Neill Cruz now was up for the pirates means that the number is probably going to stabilize a little bit, but Harris play is playing every day. He's an unbelievable guy, defensively and center field. He's still hitting wall four hours at the bottom of that braids order. He's in this for the long haul. And I think you can still get him around 5 to one in some spots. Harris for national league rookie of the year, I think is something that I would take a good long look at. I am looking for the World Series matchup of the Yankees and the mets. I can't find it anywhere. I'm searching for it. If you find it Chris, let me know. That's where I want to put my money. Can you imagine a Yankees in mets World Series? Talk about a subway series beyond. So you could probably go down to the corner and Hoboken, you could probably find something for you. You're absolutely right. You know, we know how great this Yankees team is right now. And I'm expecting Brian cashman and the Yankees. Knowing where they are right now to be, as I like to call it active and attractive is we get closer to the trade deadline at the beginning of August and keep in mind this is a mets team. They're winning. And they've got the best record in the national league. And they don't even have their two star aces who are expected back next month. At some point in time in July. So Scherzer as well as de Grom expected back, who knows shores or might return on Tuesday against the Astros. Look out for that. So that's where I want futures bet. That's where I want to put some money. I'm curious. I'm looking for the exact World Series matchup Yankees against the mets. You find that anywhere. Let me know, Chris, I'm all over it. Before we go, let's talk about Wimbledon. You know, across the pond, give me some strawberries with some cream, give me some of your give me some of your place for today. Yeah, I think the order of play is a little messed up that on a slight little weather delay before. So I'd be looking at taking Turner Daniel. I think he's around plus 100 plus one O 5 against Sebastian Baez. That's a later in the, in the afternoon, Daniel, I think it's a much better grass pedigree than Sebastian Baez does. And then on the lady side, I think there are a couple of potential women that you can open up a money line parlay with, including Austin Panko, Maria sakurai, begu, I think those are three players that you can either put those three in a money line parlay or Angie kerbal as well will be another one I don't know what time that matches going to start. So I take a look there, you need to put open up something, just play those. Today, tomorrow, there are a couple of things that I looked at as well. I like the over 39 and a half games in the Dennis shop of all off Arthur rigger tech match, two guys with big serves. I don't think there will be a ton of breaks in that match. And then over ten and a half games in the first set of the Maxine cresty Felix auger alias C match, you can actually get that a plus one O 5 again, two guys with monster servers. I think it will take a few games or maybe even a set for their for each other to kind of get a feel of the other serve. Again, I think that first set a really good chance that thing goes to a goes through a tiebreak. So over ten and a half games first set of Crecy FAA that is tomorrow. And then a money line parley for tomorrow, it's an 18 or 300 plus one O 5 or so. These are just straight money lines to win all on up. All on Tuesday, Simone, Petra kvitova, Petra kvitova, Harriet dart, I'm gonna add any some of Rafael Nadal, stephanos TCP pass, Mario bartini and Alex dimen who are. So those 8 coming in at around plus one O 5 or so. So that's what I got on the grass for you. Before we sign off, I'm just looking bigger picture here. I put some money on barattini to win, you know, he's been so far this season. He's two and two on grass. And you can get that at 6 to one. Why is bet there, Chris? Yeah, I think if you're looking for anyone to beat November picture who was a little sluggish today in his opening round match against the luquan, he certainly someone who has the big serve and it may be a later in the tournament that could have maybe a checker which is a little off his game and you have to always wonder about the health of Raphael on the dollar and obviously he's on the bottom part of that draw. I do think there are a couple of guys in that draw though that potentially could give baritone problem. We got two very mercurial guys and Nick curios and Dennis shot a ball off who are capable of beating anybody. On the best day I have very little confidence in stepping us TT past the like prefer. Martini to him as well, but of all those players bertini has the best weapon. So I think at that price to get to the final and you're holding a plus 600 ticket, you're in a position at the very least to be able to play around with that if you don't think that he can beat Novak Djokovic, maybe he can play around with some. Derivative type markets in there. And last but not least, Serena Williams 18 to one. To win on the female side, as we know she's looking for her record setting 24th Grand Slam.
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"It's perfect. Yeah, it doesn't give you the aspect that the Hawkeye challenge system does in tennis where there's kind of like a collective spectator aspect to it where you see the little graphic and you can all see where the ball hit and whether it was out or not. In this, it's just relayed right away, but if you're concerned was that it would slow down the pace and it would take too long. Well, this certainly helps with that. So I am more persuaded than I was initially and I should have listened to you all along. Yeah. That's, you know, it's like that and then boss, I'm ready. And you know, last week, rap Manfred talking to the press seemed to pump the brakes a bit on the timeline for the automated strike zone in the majors. He said that it hadn't yet been presented to the league's competition committee, which would have to happen for it to be implemented in remote B not that he's any less resolved to do it long term, but probably not next season. It sounds like, and I wonder if part of that is because of this challenge system. Maybe it's because they just want to work all the kinks out and make sure that the system is fully baked when they finally do introduce it. It's also possible though that they're so intrigued by the challenge system that they want to evaluate that more and figure out if that is the solution that they want to advance. We will see. So I mentioned O'Neill Cruz, we did get a glimpse of him. He did debut in the majors last year he played a couple of games. But then he got sent down, most likely for pirates related service time E reasons, although he did struggle initially at triple-A before turning it on, but he's back Riley green also got promoted with the tigers, who was maybe the highest ranked prospect in the game when he came up, although I could see when I saw that news was, oh, Riley green, the car shield spokesman. That's how I think of them now. That's his claim to fame using a car shield ad. But he is up and he's done pretty well, but O'Neill Cruz really just stole the show and put on a statcast clinic in his first game with the pirates. I mean, he was showing off tools left and right. So he threw a ball from shortstop to first base at 96.7 mph, which was the hardest tracked throw by any infielder this year, and I think any infielder other than Fernando Tatís Jr. on record in the statcast era. He also hit a ball a 112.9 mph and he had a 31.5 feet per second sprint speed. I think all of those things immediately set 2022 pirates records. So the span of a few innings, he bested every other pirate in all of those respects. So he showed off the arm, he showed off the bat, he showed off the wheels, not that any of that is a surprise, I guess, like we knew he had those tools, but to show them off in quick succession like that and that throw. I mean, to basically throw as if he were a pitcher throwing from the mound, but do it from shortstop without a mound or a wind up or anything. That was just an absolute laser. So I guess the concerns, any misgivings that people have had about O'Neill Cruz as a shortstop are not like he's too slow or he doesn't hit the ball hard or he has a weak arm. So whatever nitpicks you could make about him as a player, I guess these don't directly address. I guess the bigger concerns would be about plate discipline or strikeout rate or range, let's say, but he seems to have held his own in those respects to at least in the minors and he played mostly shortstop down there even though they were talking about getting him acclimated to left field. He ended up not playing all that much left field fortunately because I want to see the 6 7 shortstop play short stuff and not be short at all. The tall stop. So he's up and he is flashing impressive skills left and right. So kind of awesome to have him not only come up but make an immediate impact and all the high real solid ones. Yeah, I mean, that was just like, you know, I imagine that there aren't a ton of games where you can necessarily say this, but what a lovely evening pirates fans got to have. It was just very cool time because he wasn't the only player to debut in that game. And so they just are getting to see, you know, some, you get some glimpses. You get overshadowed to bly Madras, right? The 26 year old rookie who is the first MLP player of palauan descent. Yes. I believe the small island in the western Pacific. Yeah, and so it's like you both got hits, they both had impressive defensive plays like there is definitely a reason that Eric has an 80. Cruises arm, you're right to say that the concerns around him being able to stick there are not related to his arm, his arm is quite excellent. So I think that, you know, there are just days where you get to see like, hey, if it all comes together, right? If the young guys all sort of can gel and play up, then you might have something exciting here, and that doesn't mean that crews won't have struggles later, and that some of the stuff that was causing him to sort of scuttle in the early part of the season for him in the miners won't resurface. And I think that other than his arm, there are still some times where you can see like the sort of limitations of his frame playing short and start to say that that stuff won't manifest, but it sure didn't yesterday. So that's pretty exciting. It is just very cool to get to see the future potentially manifesting and we love is here's a question for you. So oh no, Chris, a beef boy? Oh, I think he's too wiry. Yeah. I think you're right. Yeah. I mean, he's giant, obviously. But he doesn't have the girth that we not yet. And if you want him to stay at shortstop, you probably hope not for a while yet. Right, so he's just, he's so tall. He's so tall. So it's just like a cool thing, and I hope that it continues to play to the best potential outcome. He was a guy who had and I think probably still has a good amount of variance in terms of what his future role might be, but if he keeps having games like that, then we'll all feel very smart for having had him on the hundred. Yep, right? And I guess in with the new out with the old, just a quick little salute to Lorenzo Cain, who hasn't officially retired as we speak, but was DF aid by the brewers, although that seems to have been a mutual thing and they seem to have kept him just long enough for him to qualify for ten years of service, which is nice. Everyone loves her and it's okay in and enjoyed watching him during his career, especially during his time with the royals, but pretty good hitter and just great glove and good runner and just really entertaining player who everyone seemed to really like and surprised everyone and surpassed expectations as someone who got into the game quite late compared to most major leaguers. So just a good story, a good career if he doesn't catch on somewhere else than happy trails to Lorenzo king. Yeah. It wasn't so long ago that he looked like really, really good. And so, you know, time comes for all of us, but it does. Yes. Waiting until he had hit the ten year Mark, which has like, it has pension implications or nothing else. That's good. Good. All right, ending here with the step blast. If I saw something again as well we'll be as close and then the teaser to take it to discuss it.
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"So there's a lot of other MLB action we could discuss. I guess we could touch on the Phillies come from behind victory over the mets on Monday because was that what prompted you to tweet about being a fan of the NL east and just how demanding and mentally taxing that seems at times like this was what we thought the Phillies were going to be. Coming into this year. This fulfilled all the expectations. It's like this team is going to hit and this team is going to give back a lot of runs on defense and they did both in this game. I guess technically the three errors that Alec Bo made maybe did not lead directly to runs, but Alec bohm did indeed make three errors and also reach base 5 times in a game the Phillies came back to win against the mets 5 four. Alec bohm speaking of viral tweets, he was also caught saying that he was not a huge fan of the playing for the Phillies experience more or less people were able to read his lips as he said I effing hate this place and he did subsequently apologize after the game. Philly's fans famously forgetting, so I'm sure that they will all give him a pass on that. But rough day for him and rough day for the Phillies that turned into a fun day for the Philly. So yeah, you know, we're only a few days into the season, but this is pretty much par for the course. I'm pleased to satisfied with my Phillies watching experience so far. Yeah, so I'll say a couple of things here. The first of which is thank goodness they won that game because the other one would have had a much harder time. I mean, we've all had a hard day at work, right? We all sat there and thought to ourselves hated here. Even when you really like your job, you have days like that because it's your life, and work is work. So sometimes it manifests in less pleasant ways. I would like to point out that when the Phillies made their signings and I said, I had no notes. I did acknowledge that for Philly fans. This would probably be a very taxing experience, but that for the rest of us, it would be delightful. And so far, as you mentioned, they've really, you know, they've held true to my prediction. J jaffe is going to write about the Phillies defense for us, not in a way that puts any significance or meaning into a week's worth of defensive metrics because don't ever do that. Just don't ever do that. But you know, I think that wieners do sometimes watch the games and you don't need you don't need easy art to tell you that this isn't going great. But as I said to him, the unstoppable force has met the immovable object when it comes to the Met's met sing and the Phillies defense. I don't know which of them it is. I thought you were talking about the Shawn Murphy clip. Goodness. What about? No, so this isn't going great for them in some ways, but it's going well in others because they are, as you said, scoring runs even as they give them up. But I do worry for the stress level of all of the fans of the NL east. And when I tweeted about that, there was a braves fan who responded to me with a picture of the World Series ring, and look, you get to be sassy when you were a fan of the defending champs, but I've seen the way that some of those games have been closed out in recent days, and I think that you are inviting disaster, courting it as you will when you have had the stressful experience of both Janssen and Smith. So just everybody try to calm down, engage in breathing, exercises, maybe especially Alec Baldwin perhaps could use change of scenery that could mean any number of things for him, I suppose, but this is what happens when you assemble a team of DHS and then you're like, hey, go play the field anyway. You know, it's going to result in some taxing days at work. But even your worst days at work can result in in winds, that's a reality of working too. Yeah, and that game, the 5 reached pace, three error game. It doesn't happen a whole lot. And our friend Michael bauman put out a call on Twitter asking for precedent for that. How many times has it happened? And effectively wowed frequent stat blast consultant, Ryan Nelson, doing some freelancing here, stat blasting for others, he answered Michael and found that it has happened 14 times since 1900, but not since 1993. Move on was the last to have done it, which I guess checks out. Move on did it on April 29th, 1993. He had three errors at first base and also reached base 6 times, actually. So this does not happen a lot. It's been almost 30 years, and it hadn't happened since 1970 before then. So yeah, you know, we're talking twice in half a century or not even actually. So the Phillies already making history with this kind of game. It has happened most often with short stops, 5 times with third basement. I guess that makes sense. And I just look forward to what other feats of unprecedented defense and offense combined the Phillies will treat us to. This season. Yeah, and you know, it's like we got the Phillies being themselves. We got the mets being themselves within the mets being themselves. We got them being further themselves because poor Taiwan walker had shoulder bursitis and is going to go on the ten day injured list. So we're all just, you know, we can only ever be ourselves. Some of us are doomed or blessed to become our parents, but even that's just us being ourselves except older. So we alluded to the pirates in O'Neill Cruz earlier and it hasn't been a banner week for them and just for owners in general. They've not covered themselves in glory. They often do. But in the annals of nutting this week, we got an in depth report from the Pittsburgh post gazette, which took them years and public records requests and litigation from the pirates objecting to this information being revealed. So kudos to them for sticking with this investigation. But they came out with some numbers that basically seemed to show that the pirates MLB payroll costs over the past a good while. This was a report by Mark belko of the post gazette. The pirates payrolls at the major league level have basically been covered by their ticket and concession sales. So this stuff just has to be disclosed, has to be reported. The post gazette obtained these records and found that basically the pirates have covered their spending on major league players just with ticket sales and sales inside the ballpark, which means that all of that extra revenue that they're getting, the revenue sharing and all of the national broadcasting money and the ban payments and all the rest, that is just seemingly going into pirates owner's pockets. That is basically the conclusion here. I think the pirates disputed the numbers or at least the characterization and said something about how MLB payroll is not the only expense that a team incurs and that they have to pay coaches and minor leaguers and so forth. Yes, okay, sure, there are other expenses and your front office and everything. But that kind of pales in comparison to what you're spending on the big league team. And in the pirates case, that's not a lot. Only Oakland is spending less on its MLP payroll right now and this just kind of confirms what we all thought, what we all sort of knew and rob means wrote about this and broke it down further at baseball perspective. So I will link to both of those reports..
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"So perhaps a few of these guys would not have made it otherwise and also you don't have 40 player rosters in September anymore. And so maybe fewer guys debut at the end of the season and we'll shift toward the beginning of the season, but still, I think it's a good sign. And they didn't adapt the most stringent anti service time manipulation measures that they could have. There's no punishment for doing it really. It's just an incentive based system where if you bring up certain guys who meet certain criteria and then they go on to finish high end certain awards voting races, then you can get extra draft picks, that kind of thing. So it's an incentive. And maybe I don't know, does the 12 team play off format have something to do with this? Like maybe it won't necessarily incentivize teams to spend if they feel like there already decent enough to get in. But if you happen to have a good prospect who's already around and you know this is going to be a tight race and we actually have a realistic shot now. Maybe you do bring that player up on opening day instead of waiting a couple months and missing out on that production. So I don't know at the very least it's been extremely fun to see all of these players. And it's encouraging. So I think Kwan, you know, there's always someone in the beginning of the season who's just totally on fire, right? And you can get unreasonably excited about that player and then sometimes it turns into Chris Shelton in 2006, right? But always. Dare you. No, I don't suggest that that is happening with fun. I am a believer to a certain extent. I like the skill set, obviously, just because it's different from the norm right now in that he does not strike out. And thus far, as we speak on Tuesday afternoon, he has not even whiffed. Yes. Technically he swung and kind of offered at one pitch and it looked like it was going to be a whiff and then it was a check swing. So even now, he still has not swung and missed at a pitch. He has swung at 26 of them, I believe, has not whiffed he has seen 82 pitches and of course he had a 5 for 5 game on Sunday. He's been on base constantly. He has reached base 15 times in his first four career games, which surpassed the previous record of 13 times. So unbelievable, and I don't know whether to get unreasonably excited about him. Obviously people were excited about him coming into the year after the season he had last year at double-A and triple-A and you just have to hope that he can make this high context skill set work because there are a number of players who have that skill set and the question is if it doesn't come with power is always will this translate will the bat get knocked out of their hands at a certain point, will it be like a Kevin Newman skill set or maybe a dare you? At David Fletcher 2021, skill set where it's like, okay, this is kind of fun and putting the bottle and play and everything, but will he actually drive the ball or will he go a whole season without a single barrel like ledger did or be the guy who we are waiting for O'Neill Cruz to replace in Pittsburgh and Newman's case and I don't know, like Quan, he hit 12 homers in less than a full season last year. He slugged over 500 and that was new for him and that led to that aggressive fan graphs ranking right. So he's not a bean pole. He's not a tiny guy. He's not a big guy, ether, but it's not unreasonable to think that he could have a little pop, so I'm excited to see like, I don't think he's going to completely collapse or anything. I don't know whether he's going to be well above average long term or whether he's just good enough to get by and be a decent contributor. Yeah, I mean like look, we definitely don't want to overreact to these things because, you know, the guy has had 19 play parents in the big leagues. So it's always, it's always challenging when you have a prospect who you do genuinely really like and expect good things from and then they start off like this because you don't want to overreact, but you also have them ranked where they are for a reason, right? Because they are really good or you expect them to be. So look, I didn't expect that when we wrote his TLDR as Kwan doesn't swing and miss that he literally wouldn't have done that yet. That is perhaps exceeding expectations. But he has a 3.3% swing strike rate since entering pro ball, which is the second lowest in the entire minor leagues among guys who have at least 650 plate appearances and magical is the only ahead of him. And you love Nick madrigal. That's the other one, right? The question has always been with him. Will he be able to drive the ball and, you know, I don't care if he does. I mean, I hope he does because I want him to be good, but even if he's just who he's been thus far, that's fine and it's fun because it's a different skill set and we can play in about the lack of baseball biodiversity these days and that we want to see you different combinations of skills. And so Quan and madrigal, they're giving that to us whether or not they're stars, I think it's still useful and fun to have players like that in the mix. Yeah, and you know like some of his profile is coming into focus not because of what he's doing, but because of other moves the guardians have made right, so like Kwan has the capacity to play a very good center field, but with the guardians having just extended miles straw, you imagine that he's going to be in a corner so like you have that sort of piece of the puzzle falling into place, but you know, when we were watching and chatting on opening day at fangraphs, he had an at bat and I don't remember who it was against, but he made it was later in the game and he made a mid flight adjustment to a breaking ball and then hit the fastball in the next pitch and it was just, you could see the mid flight adjustment. And so when you're talking about this guy having an incredibly discerning eye, it's cool to be able to see that stuff in action as he's doing it. So do I think that he is going to continue to hit 6 92 the rest of the way? I mean, no, I don't think that. I don't think you'll have a three 75 WRC plus, but I think that this is a guy who hasn't 80 on his hit tool for a reason, or at least for us. And so it's really cool to get to see what he can do. And we'll kind of take it as it comes, so I hope I have sounded appropriately measured here, because you can't, you can't cry about this stuff too early. Like that way lies madness. And what's the point of being, you know, gauche like that anyhow. The reason this is exciting isn't because we had him stuffed on our hundred. It's because like Steven Kwan's a really good player and he's shown us that. And it's really cool and those guys blossom at the big league level..
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"And I'm not going to say that we do it right or they do it, right? It's not as if MLP teams have figured out how to keep pitchers healthy or anything. So maybe they're up to something. I don't know. Historically, maybe they have overworked pictures as pitchers were overworked here, but that was just not something you would ever see here. So that was notable, and also after the game was over, the celebration was somewhat muted, I would say, for a 19 strikeout perfect game that hadn't happened in 30 years with 13 consecutive strikeouts, there wasn't even like a catcher leaps into his arms or vice versa. It was, you know, they were happy, but there wasn't a big dog pile or anything. So maybe that's just kind of a cultural difference in Anfield celebrations, but also there is a tradition where the marines line up on the baseline after the game and just basically take a bow and kind of thank the fans for watching and participating in the victory, which is something I think they do regularly, not just after historic extraordinary games, but that was a kind of a cool tradition too, I thought. Yeah, that is a cool tradition. Anyway, check out roki sasaki if any of you has the chance you can, of course, subscribe and watch those games and just follow along with them. People have called him the next ohtani, which doesn't really make sense to me because he's not a two way player, but he is that kind of talent as a pitcher, if not even better. He threw even harder than Otani as an amateur. And so he is just incredibly talented ton of fun. But he has breaking balls too. He didn't even need his breaking balls really. He was just throwing fastballs and splitters. He has a slider. He has a change up like he just didn't really need them anyway. Just kind of incredible. Probably the best player performance I saw since we last spoke. But impressive performances in MLB as well that we can perhaps discuss here, but I did want to note we talked last week a lot about the fact that it seemed like a lot of top prospects were making their MLB debuts on or immediately after opening day. And I ran the numbers on that as did Matt Eddie at baseball America separately. And it is true. We were onto something there. It is historically notable that we're seeing weird and who your Rodriguez and torkelson and Abrams. And on and on and on down to Stephen Quan, not that we're down to Stephen Quan, he should be at the top of that list at this point. But he is a top 100 prospect, Ben. At one site, at least. Which is looking good right now. Looking pretty good. We feel smart. But there have been 11 baseball America top 100 guys who have made their MLB debuts so far. I use baseball America just because it goes back the furthest to 1990, so it gave me the biggest sample. And I also looked at quality and quantity just kind of combining the ranks as well as the number of top prospects. Anyway, the takeaway is and I will link to this on the show page if you want to look at all the numbers and graphs. But this has absolutely been by far the biggest year for MLP debuts in the first week of a season, except for 1995, but 1995 is an exception and outlier because the previous season was suspended and ended in mid August. And so there was no September rosters did not expand. And so the prospects who probably would have debuted at the end of the 94 season, there was a big backlog and they didn't show up until late April 95 when that season started. So I think that accounts for that artificially inflated total. Right. And if you put that aside this year is by far the most and this year, even just having four top ten guys, that was a record. That's unsurpassed. And it could have been better because Riley green probably would have been yet another one if he hadn't fractured his foot at the end of spring training. So between that between the fact that baseball America didn't even include Kwan in its top 100, so he wasn't even counting toward that total. Adley Richmond got hurt, although maybe he would have started in triple-A anyway. But it's definitely as notable as it seemed to us. And it's notable also because the trend has been away from that in recent years, fewer guys getting called up early in the season, what with service time manipulation. So the question is, is this some sort of weird blip and it's cyclical and some years more of the top 100 guys are ready right now and for some years more of them are further away. So I don't know that this definitely marks the beginning of a long-term trend or suggests that the new CBA changes that are intended to curtail service time manipulation have worked victory, mission accomplished, probably too soon to say that. It's an encouraging sign and it's definitely been super exciting to see these guys in action. Well, I think that, you know, we'll need probably not only a couple of years of information to really say, but definitely more than a couple of months because there's being on the opening day roster and then they're staying on the big league roster. So we want to reserve judgment, but it's certainly an encouraging indicator in the early going and the fact that some of these guys are either playing on clubs that have sort of explicitly stated that they view them as part of an opening window of contention or that are performing super well in the early going. We don't want to we don't want to get too big for our britches, right? Stephen Quan's great right now, he could go over 50. We just don't know, but that there is this kind of performance and that they are on the particular clubs that they are. It's just a very encouraging sign. It's exciting when you have young guys who are coming in and forcing everyone to be like, who's that guy? I gotta get to know that guy. What's his deal? You know, to have that as the predominant narrative in the first week of the season rather than, well, it sure would be nice to be seeing X, like with the exception of O'Neill Cruz, we don't really have a guy right now where you're looking at the big league roster and saying, well, they're not putting their best 28 on the field. I mean, they wouldn't have 28 on the fields at a time that would be against the rules, but in the ballpark. So it is a welcome departure if only because as we learned in the course of the lockout and as we are seeing in the early going, when you can be excited about baseball players do in baseball stuff, it sure beats having to grouse about things. Yeah, and it's worth noting that there are 28 player rosters right now..
"neill cruz" Discussed on Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney
"Above double-A, so there is some justification for sending them back down. On the other hand, is he their best shortstop yes? Is he one of their best 26 players, of course he is? You know, he should be on the major league roster. I think he's ready, but certainly not a surprise. Yeah, to your point, you know, there is some incentive in theory with the new CBA to keep these potential star players on opening day rosters. You can get rewarded with draft picks if they fare well and awards voting. But it's a very small incentive. And I'm with you. The real small market teams like the pirates and the rays, the a's, they're not going to change the way they operate, because you want that extra year of service time. Yeah, and do you really or do I really think that there are people in front offices who are going to be sitting there going, well, you know what? Not only a cruise. You know what? Let's keep him in the big leagues because those baseball writers might give him The Rookie of the year. Right. Yeah, yeah, let's do that. That to me, there's as much chance of that as a front office spending, it's all. It's money on lottery tickets. Yeah, it's not enough. I'm with you. I think the one good thing about the new CBA is the draft lottery, which if you lose year after year after year, you don't get rewarded. You can't have a top 6 pick more than two years in a row. Or one year in a row if you're a big market team. So I wrote down the tigers, the last four drafts. They've picked one first, 5th first and third. That's not going to happen in the new CBA. So at least these teams that are tanking year after year won't be rewarded to the same degree with high draft picks. I think you framed the question of whether or not O'Neill Cruz should be in the big leagues perfectly in this regard. The question of whether or not he's one of the 26 best players in the organization. Yeah. Is he the best shortstop? And I really hope that between now and the next labor agreement and then I apologize because we just got the most recent one. I really hope that you get people on both sides of the aisle who come together owners leadership of the player association saying, look, we need to fix this because this really stinks that if you're a prospect in the pirates organization, you've probably or the raise organization or one of these teams that tanks, you probably have less of a chance to be promoted in the big leagues when you're actually ready versus let's say you're, you know, drafted by a team that promotes players based on that concept you mentioned that philosophy you mentioned that is he one of the 26 best players. We'll get to one of those in a second. That's what needs to happen in baseball. Yes. Yeah, and I don't know how you work around that if you change the service time, which the owners were steadfast. Obviously against changing, if it's 5 and a half years or 5 years, it's going to be the same thing just with a shorter span, but I just feel that. If you're a fan of the Pittsburgh pirates, okay? You got Brian Reynolds and cabril Hayes, and that's about it. And then you have Neil Cruz to get excited about, and now he's going to be in triple-A. And maybe it's only two weeks, but maybe it's two months. We'll find out. But now you're just even a little more discouraged. You have yet another reason not to watch your team. And that's bad for the sport. Oh, and by the way, from the player's perspective, it's another reason why you don't want to get drafted by one of these teams. Yeah. If you're a college junior and you think, okay, I get to the big leagues. I'm going to be promoted. Nope. Sorry, I got drafted by a team that's going to hold me down the minor leagues as long as possible. To maximize my return when I come up, which reduces my chances for making a living in baseball, that really stinks. That's awful. And here's my solution has always been start to service time clock from the moment that someone joins an organization, which could actually incentivize a team like the pirates to get a top prospect to the big leagues. Yeah? And that used to be the way teams operated. You wanted to get your best players up as fast as possible. And I realized the game is hard now. There's more talent, but you want to get your best players to the major leagues. That should be the goal, not all service times 7 years down the road when the GM making that decision probably won't even be the GM in 7 years. That's exactly right. Speaking of one of those organizations that does promote their best players, the big leagues when they burn that right, the Kansas City Royals have the guy who I think should be the slam dunk selection to be the American League rookie of the year and that is Bobby witt junior who, you know, I was talking to an evaluator this week who mentioned that wit reminds him at a young age of a young Chipper Jones in terms of the full range of talents, they hit capability, the power, you know, the defensive potential and Bobby witt is a plus base runner besides having plus speed. He's a plus plus base runner. I think he's going to have impact right away. In fact, I kind of think he's an X Factor in that American League central race. Are you buying Bobby witt? Yeah, hey, you know, I love the tripper comparison. I'd argue that Bobby witt junior is probably even a little more athletic. You know, you mentioned the speed on probably any other team. He's a shortstop, the royals have some pretty good defensive shortstop, so he's going to play third base. But the power, the athleticism, we got to see about the hit tool he did strike out a lot in the minors, but he's been tearing it up in spring training. Yeah, to me, rookie of the year candidates, he's won. I put Riley green of the tigers in my book as a strong number two. But yeah, Bobby witt junior, he's got it all, and let's hope he's on that opening day, roster. And I like the fact that when we talk about the roles because in the past, they've had conversations with David Moore, heads up their baseball operations about the concept of tanking, he hates it. These outspoken about it, how he feels like it's absolutely the opposite of what professional sports is supposed to represent, that you're supposed to compete. And he hates when teams just lay down. And if you remember, you know, when Eric Hosmer, when Mike mistook us, we're rookies, there wasn't any conversation about whether or not they were going to be held down in the minor leagues just to get past a particular date. Dayton's feeling was, he had an obligation to promote those players when they were in that right. And you wish the teams evaluated it this way. Again, I get it why they don't under the current system, but for the sake of the sport, let's get to a point where they actually do that, you know? Right. And there's two things here. You got to separate teams that are rebuilding and have young players and they might not be very good. And the royals, they went through that in the pre World Series years. And they went through that again and 2018, 2019. But they weren't trying to be bad. They were just playing young players. But I don't ever understand buster is it's okay to me if you're O'Neill Cruz to be in the major leagues and maybe you struggle that you're learning. Aren't you learning more facing major league pitching than triple-A pitching or double-A pitching?.
"neill cruz" Discussed on Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney
"Covers baseball for ESPN. Dave, how are you doing? I'm good, buster. This would have been, you know, the initial opening day march 30th and I just would like to point out I'm walking my dogs yesterday here in Connecticut, wind chill of 10°, the Red Sox were supposed to open at home today against the Tampa Bay Rays. So that would have been one cold game at Fenway. So maybe it's okay that the season's starting April 7th. Yeah, I think if Chris sale, of course, is a product of Florida. Chris sale heard about the lower temperatures. He probably would have had another stress fracture of a river. That is not baseball weather. So maybe in the end, this little delay we're going to have at the start of the season might actually make for better conditions. One guy who's not going to be on a major league field on opening day is O'Neil Cruz, who we found out yesterday when the pirates sent of the minor leagues that he is going down for more, quote unquote, seasoning. And look, you know, I know the pirates people who work in that organization and I'm sure they're earnest. But this to me is a classic case, not necessarily. I don't think it's as egregious as service time manipulation like we saw with Chris Bryant. But I do think it underscores the fact that we did not have a change substantive change in either service time manipulation or tanking because I think probably from the pirates perspective, their feeling is that under the current system, from their perspective, they need to maximize the return of the top prospects that they have when they're actually within their organization. And because the pirates are not close to competing, that means keeping a guy like O'Neil Cruz down in the minor leagues, much as the Tampa Bay Rays have with so many of their pitchers and it just kind of drives me nuts. What was your reaction? Yeah, I think so. You know, I don't really want to defend the pirates here, but we should point out O'Neill Cruz has only 6.
"neill cruz" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"O'Neill cruise and then LA dela Cruz and sort of how you guys think about the spectrum of boom to bust when you're ranking these guys? I'll leave cruise to Eric, Eric's the cruise. Which cruise, they're both cruises, Kevin. I'll leave the O'Neill cruise down here. Eric is the O'Neill cruise cheese ball and God bless them for it. I like them. Ellie Dil cruise is fascinating. And maybe the most fascinating prospect on this list, this is not a guy who came into professional baseball the ton of hype. He wasn't like, this is the international dude. He wasn't one of those at all. And all of a sudden he went from normal size to not normal sized. So he's a 6 foot 5 shortstop with plus plus wheels, potentially 80 power, and an absolute rocket are. The tools city, baby. And at the same time, like all those tools are on display at times and games, but we've talked about the bus potential and Eric and I have talked about this. Like when you go back on old lists and you're like, man, that guy busted out. What happened? And so, so, so often the answer is the approach was a mess. And because of the bad approach because of the bad swing decisions, this player could not actualize what his physical skills projected, and Ellie dela Cruz is a huge approach problem. In the sense that he doesn't have one. And so it's not just a poor approach. It's a bad approach. And so there's all sorts of potential ranges here, like if it never gets fixed, he might just athlete his way to the big leagues in kind of a utility role. If it gets fixed all of a sudden, he might be a monster. And then there's even bigger disaster scenarios where it just doesn't work out at all, and he does absolutely just bottoms out in the upper levels. And so on just a tools level, this guy sits or exceeds a lot of the players that we see literally in the single digits of these rankings. He's that impressive. It's just at the same time this might not work at all. And those guys are exciting and terrifying at the same time. And then O'Neill Cruz is the version of LE de la Cruz that has performed at the upper levels despite the approach issues. And grown three inches and stayed at shortstop. There's real risk in both these guys. We're trying to find a range high end and a low end and not just like go somewhere in the middle, but get a feel for where along this range of outcomes these guys are going to tend to fall. And the fact that O'Neill Cruz, he was 6 foot 7 at age 2021 and then we were like, I mean, this looks okay at shortstop now. But for sure, when he's 23 24, he won't be able to play there. Let's figure something else out. And well, that times arrived. And he's still playing shortstop and it still looks okay, certainly as okay as some of the teams are willing to run out there. Now, it's not any worse than Paul young or even Marcus semi in when he was trying to play shortstop and boba shit's not a great defensive shortstop guys. There are plenty of other examples where just because this guy hits for so much power, he's a viable defensive shortstop at all, then he's probably a four plus win player and I just think that that is clearly in play here and of all the guys on the list. On your cruise is one of the few who, if you told me they would become an 8 or have some 8 seasons where they're worth 7 plus wins, it wouldn't surprise me. And so I want to have a guy like this, especially one so close to the big leagues who's done nothing but performed at this point. Again, there are yellow flags, if not red flags. About his willingness to swaying and guys with levers this long tend to fail. But then Aaron judge happens, right? And you wonder why he was only 75th. Right. On your prospect list. Yeah, and it's just so weird just because he's such a unicorn and talking about O'Neill now just in the sense that I think so much I think really good prospect ranking in really good evaluations come from having a good database. And I mean like a database in your head and having a history and an understanding of players so you can look at this guy and go, I know what this looks like and that's what guys who look like this become. I think that's the play a huge role in how you do this. And he's tough. I don't know what 6 foot 7 short stops become. I've never seen one before. And so he's such this very strange strange thing that it does create a challenge. One broader question about catchers, Richmond is the headliner, but he is not the only one in his test noted in her piece. There are 12 catchers in the top 106 in the top 30. That's a lot that's more than usual and sometimes you can look at these lists and just get too obsessed with the details and you end up doing the close encounters. This means something, this is important as you look at the positional trends and sometimes it doesn't mean anything and it's just sort of cyclical, but is it anything different happening with catcher development now or is this just a coincidence and who are some of the non regimen names to know here? Because for me, at least on the eve of the position, possibly being nerfed a little bit at least defensively. It's disappointing to me that we have this potentially historic crop of catchers coming along because I want to see what all these guys can do in every aspect of their game. At least for me, I've been juice and catchers for the last little bit, like I'm just looking at the 20 19 and 2020 top 100s right now, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and I've got ten and 12 catchers on those past couple hundreds as well. And kyber Ruiz, who was part of the masters or deal barely exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2021 and would just be in the top 20 of this list where he eligible as well. I just think that this is a random swell of talent in some ways and then also the way I try to value this position on the universal prospect continuum. They're just aren't good big league catchers who hit. It is a position of need for everyone. Now that the universal the H is coming, I think catchers are the position on your roster for which you are most likely to want to pinch hit during the course of a game. And having three catchers on your roster, especially potentially expanded rosters, seems pretty smart. And that the industry need for this position is going to increase maybe by like 20%..