7 Episode results for "Neil Brodie"
Going into the Homestretch
"Welcome to this week's episode of Blue Skies Tragedy Group's Canadian podcast. What you need to know about this week in in Canadian politics? I'm Cam from a consultant here. Blue Sky and joining me today or Neil Brodie fights president lines himself with the Blue Team and Jeff Aft- Turner Senior Consultant Who's closely following the liberal campaign. All right well here. We are the end of the end of this big week. And as of today voting has begun with advanced polls now open and threw out the long weekend. There are a lot of undecided voters out. There we'll start off with this wondering here. We'll Canadians Canadians. Come out this weekend to vote or will people wait the twenty-first to make up their mind. What do you think Well I know the I think the trend over the last couple of years is people going to advance dance polls to avoid the crowds on on election day I think the The question this time around will people want to go out and vote There have been no the change in the numbers in the polls since the beginning of the campaign which kind of reflects the No big winning issue. No big winning in plank For any of the parties It's kind of the Seinfeld election. It's really about nothing even though there have been some some large policy announcements by all the parties. Hardee's I I don't I don't know it's Thanksgiving weekend. If the weather's nice and people are with families they might stay home and the twenty-first but I think it's only I think that's it's only a a result of the weather. I think the bigger question is will people want to own vote this this time. What you Jeff? I don't think the proverbial undecided voter person who sort of ascribing identifies as unidentified. We'll go out this weekend. Because those types of voters tend to play chicken with the polls they go right to the very last minute before making up their mind I've been to lots of doors on the day before Election Day. Where people are still telling you? They're undecided so I don't think that's who's going to go out to advance polls weekend but that's not who is supposed to go to advance. Polls as far as campaign when is concerned Campaigns are working this weekend as many election day. First and foremost it's a way of warming up your machine for the big show on next Monday but secondly it's a way. AM getting the people you know or suspect highly are going to vote for you to the poll to effectively deposit that vote into the bank. So you can focus on the rest of the people on your list for the remainder of of the week. So that's that's what's happening this weekend. I think people are going after As far as campaigns are going after. ID voters to try to get them to go early. There are some voters who just naturally know that they're are gonNA be busy or they're traveling or town or it's not convenient or maybe. This weekend is more convenient than a Monday afternoon. So you'll definitely get those types of voters who may not be coming because as they are particularly strongly politically aligned or other things just convenient for them So I think The truly undecided voter which is who were talking about in this question I think they're sitting down over dinner or family engagement this weekend. And they were having that proverbial Thanksgiving conversation may not make up their mind but it will substantially advance. That and I think by next Monday they'll be ready to go. I think there are two factors really play into this. One is over the last couple of federal election cycles. We've seen more and more people get attuned to the idea of strategic voting and and that idea of trying to stop the lesser to whatever that may look like and therefore I've gotten more used to the idea of going at the last minute letting things play out see what happens at the polls for alternate jumping in because we face stories in two thousand eleven of people are saying oh I voted liberal to stop the MVP and Jack Layton surgeon. I feel terrible. How can I help you? And and I saw the opposite opposite in in in two thousand fifteen and I think you're seeing people are wising up a little bit and thinking okay. I'm GonNa wait a little bit longer to do this. The other thing though. I think it's interesting plaintiffs additive so well advanced polls open. Friday universities had polls open all week. And what's happened with that youth with that university vote at the did they actually get out to the act and AH obviously those votes are already now in the bank. That's the big thing I agree with that. You're saying Jeff at this point in the campaign you WANNA Walk People in as best you can and this an opportunity to do it so the people if they if they are feeling your way and you can get him out to vote now because it wasn't they change your mind will will cast. It doesn't matter anymore but I think it's going to be interesting when it comes to the polls calls we start to see some movement in the last couple of days especially in the personal approval numbers for Mr saying. I think the question is that does that continue play. And I think that's one of the things that keep people who are undecided undecided on the sidelines. This weekend is why does he does play out wanting to see you know it is. There is another option for me. If they wait they wait ten days. I'll have a better idea of where things in stand now. The other big thing this week we had we had. Both the official commissioned debates Monday night on on on their last Thursday night in French and quite the spectacles new formats live audiences. All this lovely stuff built up around so I wanted to get both your overall impression on this. Who who want who lost? Who looked good? Who wish they'd stayed home? Jeff Yeah I think. The format lost I think that was the unanimous. As far as the English language debate was concerned I think that was unanimous amongst no matter what your partisan stripe And that was just a bit of a shame because I think people were looking forward to this as a bit more of a neutral space jason bit more of a different format than before in past campaigns and I think a lot of people were disappointed with the election Debate on in English. The French nice to be made a lot of changes. I don't know whether that was always their plan. or whether the producers went into a bunker for a couple of days to really take the the sort maelstrom around the English debate and turn it into something better in their own production So either either Kudos if they did it. Better from the GECKO or Kudos if they turned it around in a couple of days for what was arguably a much better format I think we actually heard the leaders able to communicate they all. I think the leaders and the party certainly got the message that viewers and Canadian for frustrated by this kind of scrabble talking over each other in in those sorts of things in the first debate because they were all very polite. They're all very very accommodating if you will of other people's Time on the microphone and so I thought the French debate did a better service. So it's the it's the Canadians across the country. Hopefully should've watched. Unfortunately that won't be the case in in in English Canada I think in terms of just a answer question who who sort of broke through. Didn't I think it's it's it's fairly. Well accepted Jagmeet. Did have a pretty shiny day a on the English debate. I think in part that was because First of all he's obviously a fairly positive guy. That's his brand that's his. That's his His way of doing politics and I think that was contrast especially this year coming out with a giant bludgeoned right off the bat. I think set sing up perfectly to be that Middle Guy. Hi who he was to say. Okay well you guys are arguing. You look at me while I say something. That's universally accepted by whoever hears it. It's easy to be the Nice Guy Candidate when you have nothing to lose. Yeah and no disrespect intended but Justin Trudeau was the same way in twenty fifteen. He had nothing to lose. They were the third party. He'd come in and say anything he wanted me. Obviously there's a different dynamic in play when you're a liberal the Liberal Party leader But it's nice when you're in that third third position where you can come in you. You really can't do anything wrong and I was just thinking I mean in terms of Jagmeet in this sort of this moment that seems to be lifting him a little bit in this week and I just find it interesting and maybe this is a partisan comment but I find interesting. That that he's he's he's sailing to become a very important person or A. You know a winner of this campaign by losing half of the seats. It really is this awkward dynamic of Catching Fire while the ship is burnt while the ship is sinking. It just is this dichotomy. That is hard to figure out. And it's accurate. I think he is. He is catching on. He is reaching people he he is you know sort of having that actively to frustrated voters but the stark reality of the of the of the chess pieces on the map is he's GonNa lose half of all of those things where they are today. We've got another week. We'll get into that. Neil your views on it. I will Second Jeff's opinion that One of the big losers. There's was the debate itself Having both debates in Ottawa. With at least the English language debate with five moderators Did a disservice to the National campaigns that people are running that there's only one debate French and English autosomal. There should have been one in Halifax I'm partial because I've got a very good friend in Halifax there should have been wind. You Know Edmund. Ten or or or Vancouver Just to show that this is a big country and there are different Political imperatives across the country. That that that that the regions care about My take away from the two debates is the liberals and the Conservatives fought to a tie Which I think was the best that both could hope for This is the winners. Were the smaller parties. Who who had a hard time Getting their message through up until the debate. So yes Mr Sing Mr Blanchette for awhile. He's he's now burst onto the national scene as the next Great Bloc Quebecois leader a and and Ms May of course you never know as the fifth or Sixth Party in the House of Commons. She never gets much airtime so Getting whatever where. She got twenty minutes in the debate. To talk about. Her issues is is always a good thing My my understanding. I didn't watch the french-language take did of my wife's Twenty Ninth Birthday Just catching up she can. She's catching up to me. I understand I watched the English debates Mr Single All. I understand Mr Sing Kinda ran out of talking points in the French debate. I don't I don't know whether that will hurt him in Quebec But if this is going to be a minority government which it looks like it is to your point Jeff. He may be the most important person in parliament. Y losing a quarter a third a half of a seats. Yeah I have to say. I found interesting using the frontliners debate last night. Some of the most heated exchange was actually between Andrew. Scheer and bloodshed. Like they. Actually were fairly viscerally going after each other More than just on policy points. It was a little bit personal which I find interesting because the you know. The minority speculation is that the only possible partners the Conservatives have their minorities minorities the Bloc Quebecois or piecemeal with the Liberals. But that's unlikely and I don't think that's going to be interesting to come out of this. This this last week of a campaign comes in these playoffs. Playoff the debates is that you're starting to see where the pressure points are coming whereas Mr Singh spent a lot of his time last night in the French debate going after Mr Trudeau even though when he wasn't matched up with them He went after him. You saw you saw sheer going. After blanchette you saw Bernier going after sheer like e you. You're seeing where everyone's pressure points are and where this is really going to play on the next week. I think the thing that I found very interesting about about both debates again aside from the format which. I'm hoping they take some lessons from this and learn from to me. I think the big thing comes I take away from. This is going to be the importance of campaigns and the importance of debates. We've seen this doesn't happen all the time but we've seen it again again. We even the situation where things have been deadlocked had moved and this was the thing that shook it started shaking Lusa bet and the value of having more of these debates. I agree with Neil. I think one of the sad things about the English debate was that it happened at seven PM Eastern so four. PM on the on the on the west coast it happened at eight pm on the East Coast. We're huge country with six timezones. You're not gonNA in a find a perfect way to do this. Between that's all the more reason maybe maybe why you do an east won a West one bring your topics at folks in the region bringing journalists from those areas to actually actually drill down on it. I think there's actually good value and same thing in French too. I appreciate that. Obviously the MO the largest frequent ovulation candidates in Quebec and. I'm glad that the consortium brought in from outside of Quebec this time but I think there's something to be said for doing for having that maybe Quebec debate outside anyway. Let's toby in violent agreement. That debates can be better next time. I think let's just not let's just not hopefully see the debate commission kind of wither and fall apart as a result of this this is their first tryout and I think we can we can hopefully see them become more ambitious as a result of that failure and hopefully be more ambitious. We've talked about by doing things. I I agree entirely. It's a big country Patrick so onto the last points starting to run out of time so we're into the final week of the campaign rendered the homestretch. Everyone's going to have Turkey this weekend. And then after that we're into the last seven days where do you see the different parties focusing all star. Neil well parties are going to go to their target ridings For everybody that means Southern Ontario Quebec and the West Coast Those are the areas that are in play So the campaigns will focus on that What I'm looking for if the polls stay fairly early tight I look forward to the last week. Commercial that liberals will drop I remember fondly the two thousand and four campaign with the Darth Vader esque liberal commercial. It's Mr Harper was going to put the army in the streets That I know I was. That was the line fine By look forward to what there will be a push for votes over the last week both are on the ground with the campaigns over the airwaves as well and I'd be interested to see where where the the parties go with their over the air attacks. Jeff Yeah I think for every party in every campaign that last week is choices in contrast so you know that sort of rounding up the back end you need to make a choice. It's now Speaking undecided voters or people who are waffling and and and the primary way of doing that There's already been for or what about four weeks or four months of trying to promise things to people to get them on your side now as well that hasn't worked for you. Let me let me show you the alternative or let me show you. Who so you think you might be voting for and why you might WanNa think about that again so choices in contrast has always folks do and for the Liberals I was just at the Justin Trudeau Rally in Ottawa? Why this morning? He was obviously thanking mostly volunteers and partisans who were there and say I'll see you on the flip side. I'm about to go across this beautiful country for the next ten days and and so we'll see what is it certainly will be key writings and major media markets and great photo ops. And all that stuff. But I don't WanNa let neal's point get lost. I think I think the last week is going to see. A ton of air were advertising from all accounts the conservative at by has been heavily back loaded. There's a lot of a lot of speculation that it will go negative particular McCain the conservative side but doesn't preclude the liberals from from doing that as well. They seem to have been doing more positive ads. But we're GONNA see a lot of clutter and noise on that we're GONNA see a lot of leader saying you know really think twice about voting for this person because you're going to get that person or really think twice about wearing for that person because they're not gonna be good for your interests well just to wrap this up. I think for the orange gene in this can be very interesting to see what happens to the polls the next week because we are certain. See this surge coming from your side if it continues. I think it's going to be Kavak on this. And it makes me think back to two thousand fifteen gene when the MVP campaign did not really have a plan B.. When things start to move you could see it from the outside and the last ten days of the campaign is all about Stop Harper? Stop Stop Harper literally the MVP had orange stop signs and all their Rallies Stop Harper. Stop number and what's the message worked. Because they went to stop they went to vote for the liberals those who were in the position actually stop them. That's part of what could blow up in the in the liberals face this time on the other side if play the strategic vote. Carter said we have to. We can't we can't habit. Doug Ford Jason Kenney Name Conservative kind of government in Ottawa. They may sing. Is your option and decide to make that flip I think buffet for the MVP one of the big things in in this last week. It's going to be very strategic. Because obviously they're the party with the least resources but they've had some of their best fundraising days year so far in the last week and they've actually raised more money in this campaign gene already than they did all twenty eleven in the big leagues and breakthrough. So the question will be. Do you take that extra bit of resources and put more money into the air war or do you try to get to a few more places. I think it's going to be very interesting to see. Just how strategic they use the reward resources. They've got or how much they're hoping to be able to use their social media game and earned media to push through the door so anyway thanks everyone for coming on. I wish you a happy Thanksgiving and we will do this again next week. The last one before we all vote on the twenty-first I saw this weekend. I I. We're we're we're beavers here. That's what we do day so eh. Thank you all for listening tuning into the blue skies. Tragedy groups team political observers for this week's can Canadian. podcast what you need to know about politics this week. Kadam Blue Sky Strategy Group is one of Canada's leading public affairs firms for government relations lobbying and strategic communications advice across Canada. visit us at blue sky. Strategy Group DOTCOM into blue sky strategy. Group is a proud member of the Global Communications Alliance.
Looking for a New Leader
"The welcome to this week's episode of Blue Skies Strategy Groups that Canadian. podcast what you need to know about this week in Canadian in politics I'm Alison Fair and joining me this week. My colleagues Tim. Barbara Cameron Hallstrom and Neil Brodie Low happy Friday so there were a lot of things that happened this week in Canadian politics but I think the big story story That took us all really by. Surprise was the resignation of Conservative leader. Andrew Scheer I want to get your thoughts. Neil I On his sudden resignation was the timing right. Well first off. I think everyone needs to thank Mr Sheer four running for as an MP running as Speaker running is leader of the Party and running for prime minister that takes mental amount of personal commitment And commitment to the country to do that and so that That part of of his public life should be should be acknowledged. I'd I'd say it was a surprise. I don't think anybody saw coming Usually leaders decide Very quickly after a after a failed election attempt went to resign right away. You know Mr Mr Martin did that. Not shortly after his defeats Mr Harper to that actually after his defeat I can't actually remember about Stefan. Giant Michael Acknowledge it but I think they were quickly after their defeats ten. So It's a surprise that he may have tried it. Wh what are we coming up on two months now. I figured since he got through the first month month and a half after the election he might go through to the New Year and trying Ryan put forward a new plan for The Conservative Party but Some accounts say he's been thinking about this for a little while. Some accounts say that was decision yesterday. The full story will come out to in in due. Course strategist though good move. Good timing or should he have waited till April or early. You'RE GONNA go go as soon as you think you're gonNA leave a position. Don't don't mess around just get drawing it unnecessarily is is never good for anyone. I was a bit surprised that He announced that he was stepping down as leader but staying on his interim leader. I'm not sure if that survived arrived evening I know there are some s caucus meetings last night That was an odd odd occurrence. Usually when you still tells us step down as leader and allow someone else take over. The reins unanimously accepted him. To stay on you know. That's what I heard which we can new podcast. Some S. T. stories. I hadn't experienced with that one. Yes you do tim from the Liberals Perspective how does this play out for them. Well I don't think anyone's restaurant election and I think that I think liberals are sending back in and watching very carefully with the national executive of the Conservative Party candidates going to do in terms of Jamaica April the leadership race or not. That's kind of an abbreviated version of it. Yeah I mean I ah my observation is is that you know sheer ran a reasonably good campaign right but there's a whole bunch of issues that he was just unable to answer so oh did he deserve to to stay on. That's an open question. I it's kind of a moot point at this point but you've basically lost two months of a leadership race that could have been so that's kind of my view. Is that you know he was dead. Man Walking like within a within two weeks of the election maybe even five days after the election real election night perspective and there was a ton of people that I spoke to conservatives at namely conservatives that of Ontario that never liked him to begin in with whether they're with Max burn or not. That's the whole other issue. But they weren't that enthusiastic but his leadership. I think the election campaign showed there was a lot of questions he just didn't answer for and then I mean the US citizenship business business around was he credited Insurance broker whatnot. It just was a little half ass and then the latest one which we've now found out and just shows how many leaks are is that potentially some of the money raised Within the conservative fund was used I private school for a for his kids So No I. It's it's bad. It should have. I think he should have left a while ago. as liberal I started the HASHTAG liberals for sheer. I did think he deserves a second. Chance was dead. Men Walking ship is held the camera thoughts on his resignation. And what it means for the MVP in all of this well. I think in the long term. The biggest minority parliament is. Is that this discussion. A lot of Very easy life because at this point and we used to be seen this in the past when Mr Mr Dion on stepped aside. and Mr Step aside. You didn't see there's no fight coming from one party. So it makes the the actual governing agenda much easier. I'm of the mind that Leadership Shapiro partisan come to the summer at the earliest just logistics of actually getting a leadership up and running and getting the voting. Everything's it's it's it's a big task to do for any organization organization to try to pull it off over basically more than three months. I know the Ontario Tories did it an extremely difficult circumstances last time but I think this different different kettle of fish. And I think there'd be a lot of pushback from certain members of the grassroots if it went too fast but that being said I'm really taken aback not so much that had happened but how it happened I agree. I agree with the sentiment that if you're going to step aside you you do it on your own terms and you do it under your own control and Dan. I'm sorry I know what Mr Shears Sate what he said yesterday but when all the other stories came out it became pretty clear to me. This was not on his own terms because if it were on his own terms the the the school story doesn't come out to be. That's the kind of story. It's not just Mr Sheer. That's damaging to people within the party. That's GONNA raise a lot of questions with members about how they're don't donations are being spent. That's the kind of story that will have ripple effects going forward and to me. That's more of a nuclear option to pulled out. That kind of tells me that there might have been a sentiment within some who really wanted to see Mr Shiro. Becky wasn't going to go because we even saw some someone's language or wasn't doubling down in the approach for a while and it made you kind of wonder if some people felt okay. He's not going to walk away. Gracefully from this he needs is be pushed in pushed now and having lived through the Tom mulcair experience within the MVP and how that played out. I think there's A. There's there's privacy concerns. It's good that it's over with now. I don't know if what how what was happened is going to help matters but it's happened. It's there and now you move into onto the next phase of leadership race and the hope that comes from that. So maybe this was a case of these reviews of some ripping off the band aid aid even if it took a couple of layers of skin along with it but it seems to me that the one thing I wanNA doubt Mr Sheer in his veracity and what he's saying but it doesn't look like this was just him deciding to go and walk away because I as one colleague put it to the other day or yesterday people who walk away to spend time with their family. Don't tell people that they're going to spend time with their family. They just go do it. Neil your thoughts on that extra story of the funds funds for his children's private school as a conservative is that does that irk. You listen you can make any arrangements for employment employment that That you can or want The disruptive part is you had the executive director of the the party come out at some point in the afternoon yesterday saying that yes. This is all above board and approved and then later in the day you had contracting stories from the conservative fund The the board of the conservative fund that that manages them essentially the money. The party every every party has one of those Coming out with a different Statement thanks They didn't know anything about these expenditures. it's still very early in the process of the first twenty four hours of of what's going to be a story How it plays out We'll we'll tell a lot of boat. How quickly we go into a leadership contest if there are significant changes at the party level because of this A leadership contest may be delayed while they sort out. The internal administration of the Party of if funds were dispersed. And you're saying though then this could be a big story in the fact of how that was managed and then that could delay the leadership. Could it depends how quickly the the the expenditure of funds on if there were funds. It expanded on public school private school. Pardon me And if they were expended inappropriately or without the proper authorization than yeah this is GonNa be A ripple through the party apparatus the the the administration of the Party the political party but the administration of of the Party Apparatus which is the part that that helps manage the leadership process? Okay so tim what what do you think now goes forward in terms of the liberals they can they sit. Just sit back now and take it all win and just see how the cards play out in my mind so think to combat minds one is talked to Neil but this yesterday for the Conservatives Sir looks at the border you do not want a twenty percent. We talked stage. I don't know how you would go down the field. Maybe it's it's a positive half a million dollars or whatever. It cannot be sixteen people on stage the leadership to replace harper with seventeen people now for off walked off in the thirteen on the ballot and it was a mistake. So here's my concern. Just if I may on an liberals and I'm beginning to see it is that they're beginning to believe they have majority and that is actually very dangerous. Because I think there's been a number of cases of really sloppy behavior I thought we had dropped the virtuous virtue signaling. It doesn't appear that we have. I still think that. HR is the biggest at the Christmas party the other day. The thing that I hear is staffs are not in place. It's just a mess and continues to be a man. I'm hearing that you know to handling staff to is not very bad mary. But here's my thing. Is that you still bill. Have Minority Government caucus matters more than ever. And you can't just say it. You have to actually do something about it. And that's my concern is that you look at the chaos. If you look at it with all due respect to Jagmeet Singh you know he did not win. It's a small group. He's in nourished I hold an election. There's this kind of chaos across across the aisle. That doesn't matter. You could still lose a vote. You still have to be really cautious of what you're doing in the house and in committees. I mean so so. I'm willing not to get cocky. Oh my God no no that. That's my biggest concern and Trudeau does that. I mean he's amazing. They follow that. Follow that Cam. I just terrific. Tim said I think this is the thing I think if I if I were the government. This opportunity put the pedal down a bit in advance some policy but but remembering that the government may not fall but there are lots of places a minority government to lose votes to have bad consequences and committees namely being one of them. They to me that that's a big danger. I think that if they fall asleep at the switch there that you really run into some issues. It's interesting interesting. You know talking we the season going to gatherings you know catching up with old friends and colleagues. I did the same myself this week. mcadoo fee France and one of the comments. What's I heard coming back? A lot from. People was the difference in tone of the field from at this post campaign between nineteen versus twenty fifteen. And how how some members of the caucus made a very deliberate attempt to try to set a better tone because as one as one per one former call you buy and put it to me. Two Thousand Fifteen felt like a funeral star starting to never stop finishing no never stop feeling that way and felt like a lost period of time whereas is this group is realized. Okay we're not in the greatest position but this could be a lot worse we're going we're we're GonNa we feel for those we've lost but we're not going to let those that have come in in the door where we're gonNA give them make them feel good and try to build a team so it's interesting. Is that walking into that space on this week with my former colleagues. I've got a very positive not a whistling past the grave. You're kind of like a recognition of okay. We got work to do. But what's what's the work. That jug meat has to do that does he. What is your advice to him as we have the conservatives who are struggling to you now find a leader and the liberals who are in a minority situation? How did you meet sing? Use this to his disease this to benefit Eh. Well see to me that this becomes part of the problem now and you started to see a little bit of it right after the throne speech when the block came out and said well we're supporting it and it left Jagmeet in this position where he was trying to tease a bit. More out of the throne speech say. I'm looking for details. Even though thrown speeches and release the spot you get details trying to leverage the power they had and the block pedaling down undercut that. Now you've got the Conservatives on the sidelines for at least a little while not patent but this getting he has to figure out how to work in that space now where yes. He has about power but really the other. Two parties aren't necessarily look into wheel their power this point right. So how'd you advance things and be effective when really your power has been cut for the next little while while still looking reasonable. I think this is something that they need to dance with figure out what. I'm hoping that Giovanni does and the Greater Progressive Movement in general does is take lessons from what they've seen route notre share but also look what happened in the UK yesterday. With Jeremy Corbyn I last night I was watching that coverage and I could not help but be struck by the parallels between what we saw could with the Conservative Party in this campaign versus Jeremy Corbyn in that campaign and just the tensions within the party of whether being drug in different autopsy different directions but whether other being dragged in different directions and the internal impact but the idea being that you leaders who felt they were not wrong and what they've done were absolutely right right and even though ideas are pushing were not generally accepted are open to the public whether be social conservative values or for the social studies idea being. I think there's ars their words of worrying there for the MVP the realize okay. What can we do that could reach out to the broader section public? Not just necessarily be real. Feel good things all right. Finally before we go quick thoughts from each one of you. Neil who do you see running for the conservative leadership I think the natural literal To be able to win you know if the if the whole goal behind removing Andrew Shears leader was to find somebody who can beat Justin Trudeau. Then you need somebody with either with a national pre existing national profile or somebody who can raise that type of profile in a very name name. Ask anybody on the street. They'RE GONNA use. They're going to say Peter Mackay or run. Ambrose ambassador members because because those people have pre existing national profile Erin O'Toole is known in the and if you're gonNA in a win you're GonNa win through the GPA. I heard on the TV. Mild bosses named Michael Taping banded about who could Pick up probably more seats in Quebec than a Eh Becker whether he has the ability to go across Canada. You know he's smart enough whether he wants to or not I guess another name Okay all right Tim. I'm not gonNA give you a name but I am. I hold on. I'm going to give you a prediction okay. Revert is has to be able to hold together either. The the conservative coalition. That Stephen Harper held together and that that Brian Morning held together. And those are the last two examples of to broaden national coalitions that there are social conservatives within the movement there are pro resource development people within that movement there are anti climate change inge people within that movement and that is a big tent to hold together and Right now the liberals are occupying the kind of center of the spectrum and away and I would argue that kind of center left spectrum which jams at the DP and it kind of holds at bay certain elements of the Conservatives but whoever it is has to be bilingual lingual has to be pretty frigging dynamic. I completely agree with Neil that instant name recognition matters. Yup I cannot be a Newbie and I do think a central central Canadian. Maybe it's Erin O'Toole You know I keep on hearing that the maroons are kind of hovering caroline's already said No. Whoa no but mark sorry? There's there's others and so keep it might all right cam final word. Well honestly I well. The name that comes to mind for me is is Rona down but I ah to me. I read Kim Thunder here you need. I think the prisoner that ultimately successful needs to be able to hold that coalition Together. I think in what we saw in the last scholarship race you saw people who came from certain ends of the spectrum. Brad chose the one that comes to mind right away who rose quickly in that race because they were able to activate a certain ends of that spectrum and leadership race tends to bring that out. I don't think you're gonNA see the The big seventeen person field this time but I think that's because you're going to receive real big names. Get in. That was scare those people when he said we see by bestowing up to my mind there has to be someone there who's whole that together got part of what Tim and I were talking about yesterday. yes was raising the the the buy end to be enough that you get serious candidates who can raise a lot of money across Canada Ed and the other one is be able to enunciate a national vision for what Conservative stand for in twenty twenty I don't think think our message has evolved since two thousand six really And there's a new. There's a new narrative out there that can be can be a leveraged by conservatives to to be able to sell them as a as a national governing party you've got. I got one morning and I wanted to throw I think's going to do with. I think should do it. Would be interesting. Bernard Lord to my mates someone with governing experience to be I'd have to. I'd love to see how that would play within that bilingual speaker Acre. Tim Show Doug Ford for a guy who says Oh yeah now a great piece of irony the mailbox. Yesterday was the merry Christmas joy in oil car from Mr She got nice. We very nice well on that note. I just want to say personally to Mr Sheer As a journalist it was absolute pleasure to work with them. I think he got rough ride. Unfortunately I think he's down to Earth A really nice guy and his family's fantastic on that note. I wish you all the best. I wish the Conservatives all the best and thanks guys for joining me again for another great discussion thank you and thanks to you listeners. FOR TUNING TUNING INTO BLUE SKIES STRATEGY GROUPS team of political observers for this week's Canadian. podcast what you need to know about politics this week in Canada Lou. Sky Strategy Group is one of Canada's leading public affairs firms for government relations lobbying and strategic communications nations advice across Canada. visit us at blue sky. Strategy Group DOTCOM Blue-sky Strategy. Group is a proud member of the global. Communications Alliance
Protests & Persuasion
"Welcome to this week's episode of Blue Skies Strategy groups a Canadian polly cast. Would you need to know about this week in Canadian politics? I'm Alison Fair and joining me this week. My colleague Neil Brodie and Cam Hallstrom okay. Welcome guys it's break week on the hill there's seems to be a lot of disruption out there we've got the protests on the coastal link taking over kind of pretty much every news program across this country and I wanted to get your thoughts on it First of all cam you may T- descent and I would like to know what your thoughts are on On what is taking place Thanks Alison I. I have to admit this is not been the the best I've ever had and it's mostly because to me. The there is no real quick explanation for it's happening but the best that I can come up with this. A lot of chickens better finally coming home to roost in an absolute cluster. Bleep of situation. And I say that. With all due respect everyone involved because Frankly the hereditary chiefs they have legal ground to stand on the elected council have legal ground to stand on the proponent. I can't say has done anything wrong in this case when I look at how thou reach. They've done the consultation. They've done they've acted. They acted in good faith This is not a situation where someone's come in and tried to force their way through and mess. Everyone over an act like a bad corporate per actor in this case. We've seen those in this country. This isn't it and this isn't a case of where. The community is vehemently opposed. We know what that looks like in that territory because that's where the northern gateway pipeline also. I had to go through and it was shot down the blink of an eye in a in a very strong unanimously within those communities and usually in the absolute opposite this time and that's because it is confusing it you do have support on both sides. I can't give you the exact breakdown but it's much more closer to equal than I think. Some people want to admit and honestly it comes all back down to a very basic principle. I for some people. Put it this way. We'll who speaks for the West suits and who who is the ban council is it the hereditary chiefs. What is it and honestly part of it? Is this talk about reconciliation and coming back and trying to move forward from our colonial past this can be example and we do have to remember that before before the French the English and others arrived here. Just nations were here. We had governance structures. We had we were just kind of loosely group people kind of dinner. Our thing we had we had community structure and nations that were built within our culture. And when you saw the Indian act imposed in the in the eighteen hundred when you saw the residential schools brought in all these things part of the part of that was to undo a lot of these garden instructors structures you saw the enact put it in band structures and lake with many things when it came to that period of time whether it be language culture anything else. Some some nations held onto these things. Better others didn't Others had a complete wiped out In the case there were certain their criminal governance structure survived to their credit but now for in the messy work reconciliation. And really the word. Reconcile is the perfect word for this because in in that territory there is no treaty. There's actually a supreme court decision in. Douglas actually said flat out they never. They never surrendered their title. It's ever been extinguished so it's been said okay. This is your land. This is it but there's never been the treaty process to see it through so when it came time to for for the for the with Sutan themselves decide who speaks for us. And how does this look? That isn't that that's just been left out. There is an open question. There seems to be a lot of conflict within that and there is and unfortunately the the structure isn't in place to help really saddle it looking at other. Modern treaties like initiative. Right next door. You don't see this conflict between band council and hereditary because along because Nishida actually eliminated the Indian act in their territory. There is an Indian act bands in that territory in northern Quebec. The same thing. The Indian Act was eliminated in those territories therefore they have communities but it's within their own structure so now they when when they speak the government or when proponents. Come in or you deal products whatever it is. The rules aren't groundrules sat so to me. This is the hard work of reconciliation. That's been punted and honestly governments of all stripes liberal conservative end EP. Bbc Everyone owns this. Everyone has to wear this. I believe what's happened is at other other groups whether it be the environmental NGOs or whether it be some on the far right groups taking on the cause as a honestly it's both sides both sides I I I just as much on on some environmental NGOs I put on someone like Erin O'Toole rule of law rule of law but the point is it's become a proxy for a bigger discussion and I think that does a disservice. What's happening and speaking of that yesterday? The Prime Minister Traveling in Senegal Was asked the question about the protests and I want to just quickly before go to you. Neil say he recognized. We recognize the important democratic right and we will always defend it of peaceful protests. This is an important part of our democracy in Canada but we are also country of the rule of law and we need to make sure these laws are respected. I am encouraging all parties to dialogue to resolve this as quickly as possible Do you agree with the Prime Minister? Neil and is this something that we need to as Cam said. Bring all the groups together and have a formal discussion while the prime minister finds himself. is Cam said in a bit of a pickle He has said on many many occasions that there's no more important relationships than that relationship between the crown and indigenous peoples in Canada and he's also said on more than one occasion. I believe that he'd like to balance the economy and the environment He went so far as to appoint to indigenous Sorry ministers for indigenous Topics minister of indigenous services and a minister for Crown Indigenous Relations And it's good that he wants people to come together and talk about this I'm heartened by the announcement this morning that I believe it's Mr Miller sent a letter or an email to Indigenous communities asking them to come together and talk As editorial side. I thought that was Kirwin. Benefits job has credited relations minister by regardless There's been some some outreach from the federal government as opposed to some Talk over the last couple of days about this provincial provincial enforcement in the provinces provinces are the only ones who can deal with this accepting that that there's a federal role to play in this In an old boss of mine wants us to save and we were presented with large issues to solve. How do you need an elephant elephant? One Bite at a time And I I I couldn't The first Bite Neil. I like on the government side the government should get together and talk amongst itself about what is important to the government the first nations indigenous groups Whether it's though it's one or the Mohawks or Whoever sit down amongst themselves. What's important and one thing here to discuss? I would actually separate set aside. What's happened with sweat and directly and the other training because we've seen solidarity actions really the end of the day. What they're doing is kind of tied to the other enough and I I would separate those out. They're the ones who went. Who are directly involved in the coastal gasoline project Get together and find out what what is that they're looking for. And then at a predetermined date you know. Take two weeks to discuss amongst yourselves. And then come together and try to talk this I've seen firsthand Governments and And chiefs worked together to achieve benefit for indigenous people under their in their communities The chiefs I've worked for were fully cognizant of the fact that you don't get everything but the something that you do get is is real when it's real and meaningful you should take. That doesn't and they've always said that does not preclude the fight for other Stuff later on But when something is in front of you that's tangible and real you take it and then continue discussing about the other issues that you have So I so I hope that That between the federal government has the the parental government Alberta and An NBC ABC CBS. And the the affected communities along the coastal gasoline a path They can come together and work this out but I do I I do want to separate the first nations indigenous issues from the environmentalist issues. I do feel it's disingenuous of the environmental movement to piggyback on The indigenous rights Movement These are two two separate things. I do agree with Mister Kenny. That for the environmental movement. This is a dress rehearsal for the Trans Mountain and If Tech Frontier Mind gets gets approved the these are dress rehearsals for bad that actors to become involved In a in a completely separate issue to further to point Would say the same that Mister Kenny. In his government in this case because they've made no bones about backing digits rates for certain groups when it suits their needs and I think to me that's the one thing I would like to see completely removed from this because at the end of the day the goal should be when it comes to reconciliation and we talk and the irony is that some people in thrown under in this and I. It bothers me some help. The Darn Bill. Three times in the House of Commons. It bothered me because really into the date. The whole right is it's right. That'd be all doctors say nobody will say yes a straight to choose the right to make an informed choice. I have a problem with what I saw at the legislature. Nbc A couple of days ago because to me it's like look. I HAVE NOT SEEN. I've taken full disclosure. I've taken part in more than a few indigenous protests in my lifetime. One of my one of my proudest moments working on Parliament Hill was being a part of the more protests up on that on Parliament Hill with the tens of thousands of people that were there. I feel very different about this. I do about that because in I would say that time. Allies were allies behind the indigenous people. Supporting us in this case. I'm seeing some people who claim to be allies on either side putting themselves and their own interest front and forward yes. Last night we saw it grow the protests to inside Justice Justice building It took over an intersection in Toronto intersection in Vancouver and like night an intersection in Ottawa. Are we going too far with the protests? Neil who's a tough one People should have the right to freedom of assembly. You Know Freedom Association But people also have the freedom of consciousness and the freedom of of of Mobility I don't even the most ardent labor unions only block access to two places for a few hours at a time. They open up and let cars through a truck Saturday. Whatever happens to be To stand in front of a a a legislature and not let reporters or politicians remember the public walking in the legislature to me. I don't think anybody. I don't think anybody really realized that Rideau in Sussex's have been shut down last night Because our auto maybe sleep here. Then that's exactly Toronto Vancouver Might be different. I know the other day. I think everyone saw the video of a gentleman trying to get to work early in the morning and Vancouver when a when a bridge was. Shut down The what is trying to be accomplished here. Which is to achieve some Some solution between though it's wet in parts of the whatsoever and first nations that Are opposed to the the the the pipeline and the pipeline. Proponents I don't think those causes are helped by going. So far as to blockade things That turns public opinion against you. That perhaps probably seen as Completely unhelpful to the situation. Is it time to get rid of the the blockades and and well? How do you do that? Me It's tough. I've certain minister's office when tough decisions. And how do you do it do you do you send in? Jack booted Arms of the state to drag people away and and be on the front page of the paper or or do I've seen a couple of different Videos Yesterday today reasonable minded people from authority in. Try to talk with a demonstrators. And get them to step down and allow. Why would call regular people through and you know what an exciting? This is. Where I think I I empathize with different layers case. The prime minister's comments will provincial. Authorities is right because the end of the day the PR the federal government can't be dictating the RCMP. Go here go here. Go do their school do that. They're supposed to be that separation and that's one that's supposed to be there for our good but we also have to have the rail lines moving all right. I agree and I I agree but I think the one thing I'd point out here in this. Yeah Yeah I'm not saying this is inconvenient but when you look at the sheer scale of it I think. How long do we let this go? How long do Canadians everyday Canadians and politicians let the blockades disrupted meal? Well let me let me Let me Spin another little anecdote. deputy former deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister that I served under once said you know candidates wanted to become MP's MP's them WanNa be chairs of committees chairs. The committees that. I wanted to become parliamentary secretaries. Promise you secretaries. I WANNA become ministers and when you become a minister you want to sit on the priorities and Planning Cabinet Committee chaired by the Prime Minister. And once you get there you call in every week and asked to be excused from that because you're traveling somewhere You know how long does this go on for a while? This is a this is a this is a question that Justin Trudeau has to answer. He he wanted to be prime minister. He put his name on L. leadership ballot. He ran for leadership of the Liberal Party. He won liberal the Leash Ability Party. He ran to elections to elections As as Liberal leader became prime minister this this is what the job is. This is what the job is I hope he takes some time to talk with Whoever his senior advisors are on this whether they're ministers or political staff or Friends outside the political sphere that he knows who good good guidance for him. I hope he talked to them on the flight back from Africa. 'cause that flight it'll be a long flight and is able to land in Canada with some definitive answers To how the government's GonNa take care of this I go back to my original My original comments. He has said that there's no more important relationship between in the government then they relationship between indigenous peoples and the CAIN government so come out come out and say something give a date come in and give your your objectives You wanted the job you got it and it allows one with add to that to me at the end of the day. The underlying problem is you have not dealt with the underlying tidal issues at the end of the day that falls squarely on the prime minister. That's on the federal government to take the lead on the it's not for the federal government to toss off to others. Say here you deal. That's on him. And the fact of the matter is that as you mentioned before he's staked his self on this. He is made reconciliation. Such a piece of his brandon who he is and honestly twenty and fifteen. There are a lot of us in the community. Who heard that? We're hearing all the right words and were extremely hopeful and frankly a lot of people feel dash and all right. So let's see if he does. He is as you mentioned Neil on his way back from Africa his It seems to be basically. That's Africa coup Surra Kuwait Athens Takhar Senegal correct. Just took it the whole all the stops in correct and I think. Actually he's going to build them right after Senegal as well. Excellent and then Halifax Barbados there. You Go yes. That's true So but his travels have brought into the fact that this is the next topic is the UN Security Council seat and it seems that he's got one vote down The president of Senegal macky Sal Told reporters in the delegation yesterday that he would vote for Canada and encourages other African nations to do the same an uncomfortable position for the prime minister knowing human rights policy of Senegal. And is this a good sign for Trudeau in terms of gaining the seat? Neil Well let me start off this section of it Pursuing pursuing seat on United Nations. Security Council by kickback and relies one FI Saying I believe it was obi-wan-kenobi who said of the UN you'll never find more wretched hive scum and Villainy Some of you may think that strong words to the UN. Other others of you will laugh. It was meant Was meant tongue-in-cheek Yeah listen at. This is a noble noble effort I won't to discourage Furniture from getting a cannabis some recognition on the world stage. I do a question. His Desire to be at the Security Council When in his four plus years now The government has participated in one peacekeeping mission to molly which saw six helicopters two chinooks and four Griffin's Arriving country for twelve months to assist with medical evacuations. They performed exactly eleven Medical Evacuations. That's one per month And then they left I I would like to go back to his His boilerplate mandate letter language That he's distributed to all ministers in two thousand nineteen in two thousand fifteen that talks about and they're all posted online Canadian Canadians More important for for ministers to To unite and build stronger more inclusive and more resilience Canada to raise the bar of openness effectiveness and transparency and governments Committed to evidence based decision making that takes consideration impact policies on canes fully defend the Charter of rights and freedoms Young engage with the media in a professional and timely manner. And that you help. Ensure that's all gender identities indigenous peoples. Racial is people's persons with disabilities in minority groups are reflected in positions of leadership I would put forward that. It's probably a better thing for him to to push for Kennedy on the United States Human re Human Rights council There are a number of human rights laggards on that council and I would say the fit Mr Trudeau's narrative a lot better if he was pursuing a the human rights on the Human Rights Council So this pursuit of National Security Council. Fine whatever But but his focus on diversity inclusion Means that I think his efforts in his brand would be better served being on the Human Rights Council. it is disheartening that He spent a lot of time effort. Getting one vote per as you said. President Saul from Senegal to to support Candidates Position On the Security Council I would note that in Mr President. Sol's congratulatory tweet to Mr Trudeau. He thanked Mr For the partnership between Senegal Cata On mining oiling gas and working With Justin Trudeau on these on developing these resources And then reports go on to say that Mr Saul still supports Homosexuality being illegal in his country Listen as as as Cam said when he sat back and relaxed. Lisa's fingers behind his head. I could go on for half an hour about this but it wouldn't be it wouldn't be fair to my fellow panelists to go on and on it. Listen it's noble. You know you never cheer but you never cheer against Canada in the national stage. But here in Canada I scratch. My head is to to his fixation on the seat on the Security Council when their other venues there are other institutions other than the UN to get involved in and even at the other parts of the UN that I think would be more beneficial than the Security Council Cam. Do you agree somewhat I? I'M NOT GONNA lie I don't think that the Security Council has the cachet or the the half of what it was an actually neil kind of stole my thunder with the last bit there. I think there are a lot of other forms out there that you can get involved in the. You could really do a lot of good work and there's not. There's more than one place to do that. Not to not to diminish the Security Council but I I. It's just not what it used to be that being said when it comes to the trip I think this really speaks volumes to what the really the importance of the trip. The fact to me the most important thing about the trip was that raptors GM Messiah. Jerry was on the trip other pitching for Canada. The fact that you know. That's helping to keep them. Keep them in place not you know he he the Nixon try steal me but you know what he he's he's not he's not. He's not lobbying for Security Council. It's an Africa with with Donald Trump. No that's not happening. He get that here but the fact that his his involvement in that which I think is awesome but the fact of. That's the big story that's me and my big takeaway when I when I hear this fact that he Supposedly Mister Jerry. Now's Katie and citizenship. Congrats outweigh the God. Kind of slipped out through this whole thing but the fact that to me that is the big takeaway from this. It's it's if you look at the real cynical ends it's as government in a microcosm so to my mind. I don't care for going after it. There's something to be said for being on the stage but the stages in what is I think on. Ironically the timing of this I think frankly there's this the two stores we've been talking about. They really do melt together. Because for every I I've seen it in my my social media more than a few and each has activists and leaders point what they view as hypocrisy. The fact that Mr Trudeau's overseas trying to win votes the Security Council talking about human rights when what's happening in northern BC is happening so it's like an in this this candidate age that's not unnoticed either. So you know what it. We'll see how place out Honestly I think for this. Pm This is what he does best not a number. I don't mean that as a knock I mean it. Just hey you work with the skill set you have gotten. This is what he does bassin. He's out there doing it but will it make a huge difference where we stand. I don't think so if anything I think it just puts us in a greater position to be a target for Donald Trump. He's present for maybe another eight months. Maybe longer who knows fingers crossed but the point is that just puts us out there that much more to be criticised by others and maybe four flash points in in this uncertain age. I don't know if there's a certain value in that one thing the real win would have been if Justin Trudeau had gotten the raptors charter plane to fly them across Africa as opposed to the prime minister's Airbus. No no I feel. Pm Get them all scarves. Do you get them all scarfs. That's a big thing with the raptors right now scarves. Ibm Style it's art. Believe the end of the Raptors fifteen game losing streak on the prime minister. No let's let's find out what takes hold next week when the House returns and I am sure. The protests will be top of mind of everyone in the House of Commons. Neil Cam thank you and thank you to the listeners. For TUNING INTO BLUE-SKY STRATEGY GROUPS team of political observers for this week's Canadian. Podcast what you need to know about politics this week in Canada Lou. Sky Strategy Group is one of Canada's leading public affairs firms for government relations lobbying and strategic communications advice across Canada visit us at Blue Sky Strategy Group Darker Blue Sky Strategy Group is a proud member of the Global Communications Alliance.
The New Federal Cabinet
"Welcome to this week's episode Blue Sky Strategy groups a Canadian. podcast what you need to know about at this week in Canadian politics. I'm Alison Fair and joining me this week. My Colleagues Jeff Turner Cameron Holmstrom and Neil Brodie Good morning everyone. Happy Friday morning all right. I can't wait for the discussion Russian because this was the big story this week. The new Federal Cabinet Lots of rumors beforehand especially amongst us in the office and the leafs also one loss. Okay Shelton KIEF. Oh Yeah but you lost your coach this week anyway so we got new faces faces We had not some of the faces that we thought. We're GONNA come in there but so i WanNa talk about the good the bad the ugly about so this announcement that Trudeau made on Wednesday. Let's start with you Jeff was there some good. The came out of this. Yes oh I think I first of all as the nominal liberal and government person at this table. I'll just point out that good bad and ugly as a two-thirds negative construct in and I'm not going to really jump right into that. I'm going to frame I think. Mostly in the the good the. Let's see in the fair criticism in terms of how those things and we certainly weren't hearing lots of rumors. I think it bears was talking about just off the top that You know the good old adage in Ottawa or any capital is always true which is usually those who know. Don't talk and those who talk typically don't Know No. We heard a lot of rumors. But we started to see the actual leaks. Come out I would be more know about a week and a half an advance putting putting to rest any speculation accusation at the Minister of Finance. Obviously the most senior in central minister in any government was staying put. That was. Obviously they'd had enough of that rumor and put that out. Ah Pretty quickly and I think I'm sure Mr Moore no appreciated that and then we start to see the leaks around and particularly the ministers about three or four days in advance and and those all turned out to be. I believe if not one hundred accurate Mo- mostly ninety nine percent accurate But we were also hearing rumors and this is always a challenge in our line of work to what are you. What are you flow through to clients Hanson or or or your your network or talk about on TV program or a podcast and and not to for example? We heard rumors where it turned out to be true. That minister was not going to be was GONNA move out of a portfolio but then we heard was being moved in was just at the end of the day completely wrong and so so it is always a challenge to sort out the speculation at the end of the day. It doesn't matter for regular Canadians or even our clients. Really what matters game so to answer your question the good out of this. I think there's no question. Question that Christina Freeland was the story of this cabinet shuffle. I think Even if you set aside the Alberta Angle corker St And embraced the performance and the capability. She's demonstrated in her role as foreign minister both on the global stage where most important in the US stage dealing with challenging personalities and challenging issues. And doing it in a way that I think everybody no matter. Their political stripe appreciated in those times. I think it's a great shift to see her now facing premiers as well as the United States. It seems that will remain in her in her wheelhouse in terms of relations and they've got fits for Kansas closest neighbor and ally in the same way that speaking with all the provinces and the municipalities cy yesterday by the way that the prime minister and Miss Freedland met with mayors yesterday in the same way. They've been meeting with premieres and I think that will be very important in the coming term. And so she. She's excellent there. I think to get into the sort of the. Let's see side even though that's the story in in auto are in any government. I mean the political capital inside of a cabinet or a caucus and in terms of what role you have is. How much money do you have at your disposal as a ministry? So for example is Said said huge right and got tons of money yet programs. You Got Policy Levers you've got resources you've got huge staffs you have the political capability to be present present or to be able to receive information from almost every part of this country and every part of the civil service that serves it. In the ministry intergovernmental affairs typically doesn't have that kind kind of support do you have the Privy Council office as your ministry They are not an operational ministry their Their cabinet organizing ministry and a sort of centralizing of of information ministry and typically for example Dominic. Leblanc's office only a handful of staffers in it and I mean a handful which she have a lot more just because of the roller per being deputy prime minister w prime minister typically as a ceremonial title. It doesn't come with anything It comes with whatever they wanted to come with. And so I think the proof in the pudding here for both the Prime Minister and his staff in the coming weeks as those offices or constituted demonstrating that she has those resources and and I think the first way that I as an inside will be looking at who who in. How many go into her minister's Office does she have very senior? Communications people does your very senior political L. problem solvers people who know what is going to work well and what is not going to work. Well does she have a person on every provinces desk let alone region right. Does she have have a point person. WHO deals with every provincial government? So in that contract. We're talking about a minister's Office of North of twelve to fifteen maybe even twenty people that's an asset level minister's office and I think if that's what's GonNa be would be useful for her and I hope that the PM Oh and and others they probably have to break down bureaucratic barriers to make that happen then they should. I have have a quick question because I did read it in the Global Mail this morning and this can be anyone can jump in on this. You say. Christopher Nolan good good choice. There's actually AH opinion saying that. They should have not have moved her that because of the CO current global situation because she was so strong in that portfolio. She should've just I remain there. Anyone agree with that or Christie. Good I'll drop it on this point because I think jeff kind of touched on it to me there's nothing to preclude clued someone if you're deputy prime minister from jumping on anything. That's kind of the point so I don't see it as you know you've not precluded from doing the things of anything. She holds the sway of being the deputy prime minister. So in theory if you take if you take it for that meaning there's only one other person who is more important than that's prime minister himself so I I. I think that you don't lose any of that. In fact I think it allows for this important. This cabinet is for more people to draw bring their experience in and to build the team. I think going into the campaign that might been one of the weaker points for the liberals going in was that it was very much seen as more of a one person show and less of a team and I think it's important that the fact that there are some very good performance on last in the last parliament team had been formed. And I think it's good to put them out there and give him an opportunity to grow as a team I want. I don't want to preclude neal if he has to say but I'm I'm just GONNA add. I'm just I'm just going to add Let's let's let's get right down to brass tacks there are. There are two would have been finally Ferris because that obviously is a very a very important portfolio and be a very important time but let's still there are really two issues to issues. US NAFTA hopefully mostly wrapped up. which and she she got that over the over at least five yard line at this point? We're not over the goal line yet. In China. Those are the two. Those are the two things that Christopher Nolan probably. Would've you've had to continue to focus on in that role and that's not to say that a new minister can't do those things and in fact in at least one of those situations a new minister might actually allow for a new kind of conversation to develop on one side So but yeah but I'm on the on the. There's nothing that says that she. You can't move into this new role and I think if what it says the Prime Minister and she have agreed that actually this domestic priority is priority and I think I think Minister Champagne is gonNA and do an excellent job where he is so I i. I think they've got a good ben strength there but really the only reason to keep her. There would be those two reasons and one of those reasons. Mostly she's going to continue working on that and the the moments pass and we're in that moment where we're going to see if the China issue starts to develop in a different direction and and this could just be a milestone whether it's a good one or bad one K.. And Neil did you have anything on that comment from the Gober. Go To camp for good knows I listen. It's the prime minister's prerogative would have to build a cabinet as he or she sees fit Miss Freeland I think has shown herself to be the most trusted adviser to the prime minister. stor in this in this parliament If Jerry Butts is is definitely gone from the Prime Minister's office not there on a day to day in the the day-to-day capacities. who was before? Miss Freeland becomes the new senior adviser Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister He will go to her for thoughts thoughts and suggestions and help on any number of files and I think she's proven that she's capable of doing that she carried Arguably the most difficult file bill in the previous parliament through to a successful conclusion That is she opened up Nafta rearranged it and put it all back together That's not to be discounted Getting free trade agree with Panama's hard getting free trade with the United States is even more difficult for our economy because of the interconnections sounds and our reliance on on on the US and on their side just the sheer size of their economy. Trying to fit Our free trade desires into their economy is is as difficult as well. Time will tell whether it was Whether it's a good deal or not. I know people have opinions on that. But you won't know for ten years And so miss freeland confusing comes in as as Cameron and Jefferson. Deputy Prime Minister she will be maybe the first. Stop other ministers before they go to Mr Trudeau Oh She will likely be as Intergovernmental Affairs Minister she will be. The person goes across the country and talks to various constituents institutes across the country to try and get them represented in the Prime Minister's office. If that's just a ceremonial role. That'll be a problem. If there's actual results or actions taken you can have that role Then that will be good for for the country. A perception is reality so she has to actually make it look like this prime minister's offices paying attention or carrying about provinces or regions And if she still has a hand in foreign affairs All the better she. She proved herself quite capable. There The other good This may be good for some people. Not so good for other people but the representation of Quebec Montreal in in the at the cabinet table I'll probably get more into that later in the podcast but I think there's eight ministers in so that may be representation comments of Montreal ministers because there are others yeah. There's ten total eight Montreal. The girls whose incumbent pat new that's that's an overbalanced conduct. So I hope they understand understand What they're getting out of this Cabinet Cam You did you see anything good in this. I'm going to war over from Jeff's approach okay. 'cause I'm just a believer in the idea that especially at the hop. I don't think there's very rarely any really bad choices or bad decisions when it comes to making a cabinet especially this early early on and there's no one who's his cabinet. I could say it was a real awful terrible batch choice so but when it comes to the good of the I've been watching a few specific portfolio's further obstacles importance in policy-wise coming up which is also part of the discussion house. Minority Parliament will work. Who ended up there and for me environment? Climate Change Angels your top of that list because of not just the government's policy goals but also of opposition parties like the block. And the end EP. Who are going to be both whole balance of power in this parliament and be looking for things and in those in the area so for me having seen Jonathan Wilkinson being put into that role? I've found onto a very astute choice very interesting choice partially because of my experience dealing with him. When I was still back on the hill I found him to be extremely collegial? Someone who would work across who who worked across party lines even the majority when he could have is told to go pound sand and leave him alone. I found we were actually. It's policy stuff done with him in our office where he really most circumstances would have zero incentive to do so but we brought a good idea he thought it was the right thing and also. It's interesting because of his political political history is that he was at one point in time past life the president of the Sasketchewan. ADP Youth Wing and and he was actually an adviser to Premier Roy. Romeo so this is has that prairie background even though Vancouver. MP but also the fact that he comes from Frankly the other party tradition. which is not Admiral Perry to see for Manitoba? And and that's Scotch one seeing Democrats eventually becoming liberals federally but I think it's interesting to see how that work within the the dynamics of this parliament and to that point the one they want to add to that is I conversely on the other hand I found it interesting Especially coming from Quebec in the NGO community regarding the appointment of Stephen Bilbo to our heritage. I AH my advice to my my friends and NGO movement is simply calm down. Please calm down. Feel was one of two rookie cabinets tr one or two rookie. To be named cabinet. There are a lot of very good talented rookie. MP's in this government who did not get the cabinet. Who won't even get to be parliamentary secretaries? The fact that he was elevated as as as my colleague pointed out he's one of Eight. MP's from Montreal. You know that that aloen criminal very good reason to keep them out of cabinet just for regional balance alone. But he's there and if you thought that he was GonNa go straight environment portfolio. You know what it wasn't wasn't going to happen so don't sit. There and bellyache too. Oldest is a betrayal. They're hiding him. The fact is you're back. MP Heritage is a huge which portfolio. I know some people have Bernard Granville. WHO said well? He didn't go to Ottawa. Talkable the Netflix Tax Oak Tree Company. There's there's an Beckham Peo- everyone doesn't care about the issue in particular. Jeff talks about levers and money heritage as a lot of levers in law which is why I just on that point. Why does why what is heritage Leverage Listen People may write in and curse me for this but the arts arguably mean more to Quebec back then the rest of the country and it can be seen that the Ministry of Heritage the Department of of heritage flows a lot of money into Quebec and and that was a huge part of the blocks. Exactly the thing is the want ads of this. Is that the fact that people are saying that. Somehow I mean that that they named Mr Jones named to environment was not environmentalist. Sorry Jonathan Wilkinson has very good environmental credentials. He worked he ran copies in the Green Tech. Sacher he has been in that he's got his his space and to me. He's not someone who's been dropped into the into environ pro. He's someone I think really wants to be in that portfolio. Sorry let me just. I think it's important also just to remind not that we need to remind are very very smart listeners. Cabinet ministers are not islands. They don't get dispatched from the center to go do whatever they're gonNA and come back in four years and tell us how you did. They sit at a table for three plus hours every week and they hash issues and I can tell you from sitting on those rooms from time to time. Every every minister has an opinion about every other minister portfolio and they and the whole purpose of the institutions like secrecy and confidence and solidarity and other conventions that including conventions conventions that have been taxed a little bit in the last year. Are there for a reason so that people that may not be in a portfolio can freely and and you know Candidly share their opinions across. That table. Also doesn't mean that ministers don't outside of that formal contract talk to each other and ask each other and get an also roundup support from each other because if off an individual has support outside of the government that they can help deliver. Well that's useful to administer who needs that support. Look so this idea of constructing a monolith that is either going to push the buttons or isn't going to push the buttons is just a fallacy and you know what if I remember correctly Correct me if I'm wrong. But the last Cabinet Shuffle Wilkinson's sends name was actually being thrown out to replace Catherine McKenna at the time when the whole climate tax was causing an uproar across the country and they thought not about the name for me amongst US journalists at the time. Were saying that he can go into environmental was interesting. He did go to fisheries at that time right and he did a good job auburn that role. I think this is the thing right to have a face from BC on that portfolio were obviously transmitted. It's going to be a huge issue. Someone who's who's been scotch on. Who has kind of sensibility to him? And who has environmental credentials. I I don't know who else could have picked. who had been a better fit for that role in this government? We actually just danced around what I think. Everybody was constructing advance. Which is we have Christina Freedland Alberta born and reared and a fearless fearless Captain Canada? WHO's GonNa go and have that conversation as her first priority with the prairie provinces and administer environment who AH comes from scratch? Juan originally in his work schedule on and who is also the Minister of Environment who is arguably the prairies number. One target so here you go. Oh you've got two very important people with two very important portfolio. Who are those people that we were all waiting for? Which are the Alberta wrapping this on inside the cabinet table as imperfect as they are because they don't have actually represent those constituencies but those backgrounds? They have those relations and have a little bit more on that next segment okay. So let's go tie Ryan there then I'm going to bring the bad and the ugly together And just because of just common their neal I was there anything bad or ugly about this Cabinet announcement I'm going to say I'M GONNA I WANNA talk about. This knife. Unfortunately lumped into the bad ugly portion. And I don't mean to put it there But something can go bad something can go. Ugly is Ms Ms McKenna's appointment to infrastructure she was the target of Anti Trudeau elements in this country for four years as environment minister. Now she's going to be tasked with Doling out tens of billions of dollars in infrastructure. Money at a time when the Liberal Party needs fifteen seats to win a majority There are are places to invest that money where the political returns are greater than other places in this country and if it appears that MS McKenna is and the government government is using infrastructure money to buy votes in this country. I can see again. I Call Them Anti Trudeau elements targeting MS McKenna for Despicable attacks I hope that doesn't happen but You know investing ten billion dollars of infrastructure money in the prairies might not give them. The seat returned that they need and so investing ten billion dollars infrastructure money in other regions May and if that if that actually actually comes to pass I can see getting The ugly rhetoric that we thought we could we could put behind US rearing. Its ugly head The other thing is here is not so much McKenna. It's more she unfortunately will be the lightning rod and and the same again for her. Mr Oregon Nothing bad to say about Mr Reagan. I I'd love to go for an all expenses. Paid vacation to Bahamas too But he's going to be the lightning rod for four Anti Resource Development Constituents in this country unless he can demonstrate in two years or less action and unfortunately in the resource sector large projects. Take more than ten years to two years to build and so Even though something may occur in in that portfolio the natural resource portfolio. He may become a target just because things are moving fast enough in it really and truly an industry where things don't move fast anyway. Actually you know it's interesting because that that was the other. Mr Regan was actually the other person I did want to get into because to me in this and what I found interesting Typically when you look at a cabinet new Cabinet Avenue look at who rises who falls who should get shuffled right out and I had in Oregon was one of three names that I looked at his Melanesia and Miriam Monsef three ministers ministers in the former cabinet who are now under third ministries. Frankly did not have shining successes and had their own issues in the two previous ministries. They were all in and and they've not I kind of use this as the last chance for them to really do it. And for a region in particular I find it a choice that means boomer bust it either work great or it will fail utterly because to me you had to find somebody to beat to represent that role who had a real vested interest in the the oil and gas sector who could credibly portray that and being an MP from Newfoundland the other large oil producing province in the country. I think bring some credibility special. Let's face it. The number of people from Newfoundland. Who Do work in the oil patch in the energy sector who go back and forth like to me? You taken a minister from downtown Toronto throwing that portfolio it would not it it it it would have been a huge target. You could on the same thing with Montreal but by putting him in that portfolio he has the potential. I think to use that. If he's able to be effective in the role so too interesting I think he could in talking back to his ability if he does well it could be a bit of inspired choice to have gone that way but the track record we saw him in his previous roles isn't exactly setting him up so great for that. So that's what I'm watching for that reason. And ironically I think for those who are anti development. I I could see where we can be just as much as a relief as a target because because it was passed work in past roles they may look at him and say oh you know what odds are. He's not gonNA be able to to hell with this. You know who've thank you. You put the Guy who has failed to ministries in that portfolio. who were safe now? So if you over achieves then they might be upset but I think I think it's it's interesting to put someone in that role who comes from that background. Who actually buying? Because I think that's one of the harder things for the Jason Kennedy's and Scott Mos of the world to say shame until Regan while you don't so you don't support the oil and gas sector you don't care about it's it's it's livelihood because he can demonstrative no I do because my constituents work in that sector by province depends on that sector actor. I have just much skin in his game as you do and I think that's something that even so he who I thought did a good job in that role he couldn't even. Let's see that to that level. I think I think for him. It's easier to make that that push point and Jeff. You're good or bad and ugly but I know yeah. Let's see and fair criticism so I think on the seaside. I'm GonNa note that there are obviously. It's an expanded ministry. There are new ministers in there. There are new titles and there are a plethora of titles that straddled apartments or that are associate style and it's not uncommon especially with liberal governments to appoint ministers of issues. I think that's actually probably a progressive government government thing because they want to show that priority To the public and show there is a point person and show that point person as a seat at the table and that that's the of the table also has a year of the prime minister stor when the prime minister ask those questions etc but Sort of like my initial comment about you know. The power often comes with strings and policy. Levers there's an associate minister of thing that straddles four ministries is going to have to put it optimistically challenging time organizing those departments to who do what they're asking them to do or to get the kind of advice on. What can I do that I can do without having to check in with other minister that you also report to so that there's GonNa be some bureaucratic gummy nece in that system? When you have a bunch of ministers who kind of Straddle Department or whose departments are now again as often happens and governments reorganizing themselves under these titles and coming up the government? Listen to every cabinet had a slightly different Combination of the of the acronyms etcetera. So I'll we'll be watching to see how that works out also going to pick up on Neil's point about Not just being seen to be a spokesperson slash a senior console. Tater listening frazier show sneak. You can argue so you can argue that. It isn't as I said that. Their voice at the table. They're they're they're taking that input there bring it right to the most senior decision making tables in the country But if if those same ministers are Are Not having as easy a time showing that there's a certain piece of the puzzle. That has been shepherded by them or that as directly. Come out of that stuff that they've heard from the people have been talking to the issues. They've been working on. That will start to set the dynamic of well. Are you just listener and chief or are you in fact minister who has the ability to push buttons and do things and then how does that also break out internally when you have a senior minister ultimately will sign off on that thing and relatively. Junior minister are who's associated who who have to not only go to bat with their stakeholders with the civil service but then also go to bat with their senior ministers office or their associate whatever ministry three they're associated with To get the final sign off from the minister who actually signs the paper. At the end of the day I have just before we wrap up. Go yeah go ahead Ed ugly and also I I think a lot of satirists out there have had a lot of fun with one particular portfolio that was named in this cabinet and I think we can't ignore the conversation and I think it's unfair to this measure that they've been kind of tagged with they missed the the big piece but the minister Our our new minister for Middle Class Prosperity The beaver tins attends gone to town. On this is one of my favorite satire sites. Walking Eagle News and Tim Fontaine. There had a beautiful threat on it talking about the legend of the mid the arrival. I believe the minister of the middle class prosperity. And it'd be the new buffalo on the land. And she made which Tim Brevity written that. I was rolling over laughing but that being said I think people need to kind kind of calm down on this. This is not a bug in the system now. This is a feature because everybody does this now. I looked at before coming onto that looked at some of the block. Have the critic roles out and I just a name. Some the critic roles they have put in place for there's they have critic for Social Solidarity. They have a critic critic for living together. Viva also homeless specifically They have a they have a critic for the team to stand around the Saint Lawrence Seaway. They have a critic for medical aid for dying. They have critic for for Pardon me for supply management and this has been done before even my former boss in the forty first parliament. He was named minister for Intergovernmental Aboriginal Affairs. And when we did that I remember we had to explain to everyone what it was. It was an idea and frankly the current government picked up on it when they split indigenous affairs and a two part into two parts but at the time it was like what are you doing so you know what everyone does this now and I guarantee you the appeal again the Conservatives will have something in there and everyone has it so people need to relax and calm down. It doesn't mean that it's been made up. It's it's trying to put a priority on something and try to put away of doing and the fact that Ms Forte has been named Associate Minister of Finance. I'm sorry don't look past the shuttle. Don't get screwed over by the shiny thing over here. Look at the big thing. Associate Associate Minister of finance the fact that you put a brand new cap brand new cabinet minister in that role tells you a lot about what this government things individual and her. What her abilities and how? She's proved herself herself. So you know what everyone. I guess. That is my advertisement as calm down relax. It's awesome. Yeah we'll just see I find my final thing before we go and just anyone jump in. This is what about the fact that they got rid of sports science western diversification in elect electoral reform. Yes you know that for me is my bad and ugly for me. Is that those certain ones where removed. Ah Find Sports interesting. An Olympic year. Two well we've got two Olympics coming up and then you know. Hopefully somebody's getting the trip to Tokyo. Thought they were again. I think the bread is is more important than the circuit right now And I mean these things change I think maybe not directly related what you're talking about but one of the things in this this time that we're in and what we do By time I mean a cabinet appointment time there's so much criminology that happens right. WHO's in WHO's up WHO's down? Where's going really that you can look at it that way but Komo from everything I've ever heard from people who actually assembled cabinets and who go through those decision making processes as you know? It's less Kremlinology. More Jigsaw puzzle right you you WanNa move one person somewhere and what that does force you to move six other people to fill that gap And so you know I I point that out because we often. It's not a vacuum. You can't just put exactly who you want exactly where you want them. All the time in fact you can put exactly who you want exactly where you want them in probably about four or five places and the rest of it is just a shakeout in terms of like the best case. Scenario of this person has certain strengths or certain representation that we need to but I just you know it's not a perfect science and sometimes things like sport will fall by the wayside science. They're still going to do a ton academic funding out. I said there's going to do that. They just don't have a minister of it. It's interesting the fact that even though you had a cabinet that grew were trying to find place for for people at those things fall aside because it'd be natural place to bring someone into cabinet meal exactly kind of introduce them to the space like autopsy. The size of the cabinet wasn't so interesting these are. That's all right You know they're still minister of science. It's Nafti beans. There's still a minister of sport. It's Mr Gibo Back in our our time in government We had administered steed for Small Business Administrator Steve for tourism. I'm trying to remember what other late late legacy see little bits and pieces we have You know naturally as as a as a government grows older and this is the Second Term Mr Trudeau's government you need to put loyal people somewhere or people who have helped you somehow somewhere And so you know science and sport drop off but then you get Diversity Diversity inclusion in youth you get middle-class you get digital government you get Equal Gender Equality I. It's it's just a an ebb and flow of the Times The the the main ministry is there and as I forget which one of you said it's The the parts of the platform that are important for the prime minister to have action on you put you put a minister and you put somebody notionally in charge of that part of the platform by making the Minister of Minister of State or associate of selling ten tastic. Oh Great Oh yeah ugly ugly. Yeah well. It's the it's a fair criticism of I'm going back to my original contract and I think if it's fair criticism at it could be ugly especially for this government so we have have a female chief of staff. We have two senior female advisors brought into suggest cabinet appointments in an McClellan in France. We have obviously a government that is I will well are you of course. Bona fide feminist Other people say that's true But here you are. The fear criticism emerged after this that on the whole it looks like the men got the economic portfolios and the women got the carrying portfolios. And that I just find actually just surprising and I don't I don't know if it was an oversight or if they just thought it was kind of good enough for you know or they just said well we're all together and it's great but I i. I've found it surprising that with all of that kind of systemic a commitment and besides commitment just the the political sensitivity and awareness including political sensitivities that the government has built upon itself that they that they are have opened themselves to this criticism and did not in fact elevated some of those folks and so I found that critique that came very quickly to be fair comments and I I would see how they address it continues to come as the lone lone female around this table. I actually didn't see it as a huge concern. I think think I think the fact that you have Christopher Nolan in that deputy prime minister role squashes all who had an. I think you've put a strong woman there. The lot of strong women around that table and I really we look forward to to seeing what plays out in the next two years give or take at least at Lea. Excellent at the cabinet table. Excellence at the cabinet. Table is not gender-specific. That'd be interesting to see how these these appointees shake your and you know what we look forward to keeping an eye on them over the next two two or so years. So thanks guys. I appreciate that discussion. It was great as always and thank you to the listeners. For Tuning into blue-sky Strategy Groups Thima the political observers for this week's Canadian. podcast what you need to know about politics this week in Canada. The Blue Sky Strategy Group is one of Canada's leading public affairs firms for government relations lobbying strategic communications advice across Canada. Visit Sir Blue Sky Strategy Group Dot Blue Sky Strategy. Group is a proud member of the Global Communications Alliance
The Final Push
"Welcome to this week's episode of the Blue Sky Strategy groups Canadian. podcast what you need to know about this week in Canadian in politics. I'm Neil Brody Vice. President here Blue Sky in joining me today consultant. Ken holmstrom favorite colors orange and Rafi brass also senior consultant. I'm here at blue sky. That has read flowing through his veins. Good morning to you both. Good Morning Mike. Thanks for having me here. The final Friday. The campaign is here. It's hard to believe that September eleventh was that long ago. Any thoughts on the campaign this morning. Cam while it's it's it's been a long one. It's it's felt longer than actually it's been but I I. I don't think anyone saw what came. That's the big thing that we all had our preconceived preconceived notions as to what this campaign was going to be all about and it surely hasn't delivered that it's taken aikman's totally different direction to a place where. I don't think we've seen any time in recent Canadian history. No we're at a point known today all three major parties within about twelve points each other no party pulling above thirty to thirty three percent. This is kind of unprecedented. The return of the block. Who knew who knew? And and yeah I I I think this is GonNa make for very crazy Monday night and I think some pretty interesting Splits down the road so the first thing I'd like to note is that you know in spite of all of the mudslinging and you know bringing up Unsavory past behavior from candidates on all sides. And there's been plenty of that. This election has been devoid a policy policy to steal in line from Neil here. It's been a Seinfeld election about nothing really to me. That actually tells me something else that actually says that after four years of liberal government went Canada's really good shape. The economy is strong job numbers of GDP is going down and canes are beginning to earn more. Have more take home pay now. That's really bad for a bumper sticker. So and it's going to be hard for the it's while Liberals WanNA campaign on that. The voters will decide died on Monday based on what the parties pledged to do in the future and not flying past successes. So the big thing it's going to it's going to surprise no one that this campaign has been a a lot more challenging for the liberals than when the than anyone thought when the drawn Aside from the major trudeau scandal. I don't think we really thought that she. twenty-one was GONNA have such prominence which everyone through Quebec and except for the block who and it's going to be really interesting. Come Monday to see how well they do. and to see The government's tried to use them to cobble together. A coalition as it will be the cheapest date to the dance. Nevertheless we're GONNA see. The Trudeau team continued to crisscross the country and and To activate remind voters had every opportunity that the he the only choice for progressive government not a progressive opposition For me there's two things on the campaign that but have surprised not surprise me but I've noted about the this campaign or more so than others perhaps is the role of the media. The media is essentially reporting the party talking points. There's no there's no depths to the the reporting nobody's Delving into analysis of of policy points. They're just putting policy Z.. Points up on the web and letting that stand until the next day when they put the next days talking points up and and and not really doing in any sort of in depth reporting The twenty year old pictures of Justin Trudeau and black face have been in the public sphere for so long long and no no media organization found them. That's kind of disappointing and There's been a story circulating online. For a couple of days now at Blackhawks it's not a frivolous publication that Reporting that there is a liberal Fundraiser held in New York City during the election. And that Justin in Cooper the the gentleman who set up Hillary Clinton's private servers was part of this a fundraiser for the Liberal Party is going completely unreported in the mainstream media I would either like to see them. research this. And debunk it or report on it. the the media reporting I feel has gone downhill a bit The the other thing is Watching Mr Trudeau's Slogan from two thousand fifteen being used against him in two thousand fifteen he was all about Better as always possible. And and then he got into power and reneged on his first past. The Post This last election the first past the post system promise A few you know he hasn't he hasn't really lived up to his climate bonafide as by buying a pipeline and the only real actions done is impose a tax on hard-working Canadians Canadians. WHO FILL UP THEIR GAS? Tanker heat their homes or buy groceries and During this campaign Mr Singh has Out out better Mister Trudeau. He's Mr to come along and said you know you you you did nothing Justin Here's my vision of better is always possible and seeing seen being taken over by another party. Kinda makes me small. Well to me what's interesting about this is that haven't been through a few. These are all of us around the table. Have it's interesting. Is that this campaign probably going into its setup. Most strongly over the last fifteen years to be a red door blue door campaign with the MVP Carter being pushed off the side and amazingly this has been the one where it stood out where really arguments thrown in the trash bin because neither the liberals nor the conservative manage is to pull away. They've actually both come back down. And I think that's that's interesting piece of this dynamic. That hasn't happened before and that is thanks Mr saying. I think it's interesting about this when you're looking at argument that's out there and you start seeing some of the polling. That's come out. Innovative research had a pot a pullout Mcclain's last night the show that before China China Canadians and fifty seven percent of liberals wanted a minority government. Coming out of this. I think that's the thing that's thrown out very interesting in the last week with Mr Singh throughout the whole idea of of coalition minority government. Some people took that as A. Why would you bring that up? It's turned out to be absolutely it. actually it seemed to be vindicated. I using using the seinfeld analogy. It's been kind of summer of George approach do the absolute opposite and it's worked for singing. You see that. In the last night he had a rally in Brampton apt thinking. You've seen things that are interesting. The EP has done has never won a seat federally in Peel region and the I never went in front of. AP there any level was joke. Let me sing. You Go and you WANNA Brampton. And you've got fifteen hundred people in a room of overflow of five hundred. That's saying something about something. That's shifted the interesting on Monday we've seen we've seen the big national Horse race numbers and where that sits but like all collections is going to be as regional races. He smaller breakdowns doubts. I think that's where the real surprises are gonNA come in Quebec. You're going to see the block. Certain plausible bought will to some places where we didn't quite expect. We're going to see the Tories do do well. In certain places. We won't expect 'cause splits Santa and then for the for the Liberals it's going to be some seats are GonNa fall that maybe we didn't quite see falling whereas they might actually pick up some seats. We didn't see picking up. I think it's one of those races where Monday night is going to be very unpredictable and real literally just buy your TV and watch the whole night long. Have that laptop out Reno Ren- The sites and just try to figure it all out. Well Rafi that takes us to the next point is what do leaders have to do this weekend. Or is there anything that they can do in this weekend to to influence the outcome so trudeau will need to continue to drive from the message. And I know the talking point that everybody hates that the only choice for progressive of government is the Liberals and he will continue to say that at every opportunity between now and my I'd actually love to see account and how many times he says between now and then but and you're gonna see that a lot but it's weakened is also about local campaigns. It's about getting the Ground Game Ready and Well oiled and ready for Monday. Campaign offices is in all three hundred and thirty eight. ridings will be Burning the midnight oil to ensure that they are ready to go from Monday. Organizationally have vote The volunteers ready and have everything. Thanks for typically in place for Monday to work out for them will the liberals be buying carbon offsets for all the cars. They're using to drive people to the polls on Monday the well. I'm not sure I'll have to get back to you on that one but I knew that the least. We're buying in carbon offsets and we have an actual environmental plan. Not a not a pledge to help just over gentleman. Johnny come on Nevertheless either say. Hey It's all about ground game this weekend. The liberals do have the strongest ground game. And that's what wanted the election twenty fifteen and we'll see if they can actually get enough volunteers to win them enough seats in in two thousand nineteen welcome to me. I think it's interesting. I I have said this before. For one of my personal frustrations been on the ground in two thousand fifteen hundred. Ep Campaign was the fact that when things are slipped there was no pivot there was no plan B. it seemed and in the last ten days campaign The MVP ran around. Do with the vote splitting argument of you have to vote orange to stop harper and they literally had large or unstop science and had stop Harper on and at that point in the campaign the liberals have pulled ahead ahead and the voters took that mess of okay we'll vote to stop harper revolting ren said of orange. I think this is a kind of ironically. I think that message to progress actually has the opportunity to backfire on the liberals in the same kind of way. Because I think right now Mr Singh has built up such goodwill and such credibility in his Own Credentials. I think people look at him and say well who is the real progressive option as him or is it Mr Trudeau and I think that's the danger. Is that the liberal campaigns and run into now is there is a real plan to go to at that point for them. I don't think so I think you Kinda have to ride that horse to the ends. You gotTa flog it till it till it's dead but I think I think there is at risk that a backfires for Mr Singh. I think the big thing for them is that they've managed to run probably the best possible campaign. They could on the resources resources they had. You got three days left. It's very simple. This point don't screw it up. Don't make a big mistake that blows us all up because running forty big campaign campaign. That's relatively mistake is near impossible to do in this environment to have gotten this far and have done it so well. Yeah you're at the finish line. You're you're getting with finish line. Does run through it hard tired and don't mess it up and actually ironically this is where the reason the lack of resources kinda helped the MVP and a lot of the writings. They've got bigger ground game where they have strength but the interesting. The thing is that because of the financial restraints they find themselves under. Obviously they travel plans had to change our preferred. Pardon me so for them. There had to be in burnaby on Monday so they were going to be on the west coast anyway so it allows L- instead of trying to the and go after seats on the places but it kind of focused their their last few days and able to plan out how it looked so to my mind. That's going to be. The big thing is being out there just running through that finish line and keeping the positive tone because obviously people responded to it. I let me pick up on that Listen Mr sings done a fantastic job. the one thing he should do through the weekend is to keep talking about not supporting a conservative heard of government that way that gives licensed to progressives in Canada to vote for the MVP It's even better since sink in. Say He'll hold Trudeau Trudeau to account and stop the pipeline If Mr Singh waivers from that message vote start looking back to the liberals And A. and it'll be About about Oh come for Mr Sing but I I agree with you. Mr Sings done a fantastic job If he keeps going he he will do Head head and shoulders above what people expected him to do For the election Now are Greek producers telling me we're getting close to the end of our time time so let me go to the go to help. Canadians made up their mind. How do you see Monday playing out and do you expect any surprises? So I see the first thing. I'll be watching for the land to Canada to see trends coming from that. Obviously in the last election the liberals want all thirty two seats show. We'll be looking to see if at the end. EP are able to pick up one or two seats and how much the vote count increases in the province as well as in the in the region. I'd want to see if the toys got more than five or six. They're predicted today. If that's the case we can only make an assumption that it's going to be a very long night for the Liberals then we're GONNA go to I'll be we'll be watching Quebec and Ontario as the polls close at nine thirty PM. It's expected to see that the box to triple or quadruple their seats. But it'd be interesting to see for me if I've laid visits by Trudeau Sing and to the province have been able to stem tied at all I'M GONNA go out on a limb. NPR miming prediction that the liberals will outperform expectations in Ontario I think right now. They hold seventy nine in the province and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number even go up by a couple of seats for me I think Canadians haven't made up their mind. And you see that by the polls Cam said being around thirty two percent for for the front running parties. which is I think? The lowest going into a general election since polling started. I stand corrected on that. And how do I see Monday. Playing note It'll be about getting out the vote and I I sincerely hope people vote and vote Because that's a great civic duty but I see a lot a lot of people staying home because the no no leader has stood up and said you must follow me. I'm the best option for Canada in Twenty Nineteen So come Monday. People will get up and go to work. Nine o'clock eight o'clock in the morning get home five six o'clock and whether they go after dinner devote I I don't I don't know And I think that might be the biggest surprise on Monday. I I think for me the interesting a couple of things I'm watching for one is deterred piece because we did see record turnout the advanced polls I know more or more. Canadians have been voting earlier as a habit. But I'm kind of curious to see if that if that translates through especially in the youthful because we saw record turnout on campuses in this campaign so far in fact continues on but for me. The big thing I'm looking for is a few small factors on the on the edges. And I'm looking at for starters. There are some a few areas where. I'm looking being at for potential breakthroughs for the EP for me. One of those peel particularly Brampton. That was parked sings. Pitch was able to win seats in that part of the world old. We'll see if the liberal pull that off. I'm curious to see what happens with the Greens with the green vote in places like Atlantic Canada. Vancouver island the they had they were on the rise is they've since kind of fallen off question is do they actually grow their caucus or do they actually managed shrink back and the other thing. I'm very curious about is frankly Max bringing the PPC only because of this is that while they are not polling. Well we seem in the past where there's this phenomenon and pulling where took conservatives tend to poll lower than the actually rate the actually pull voted the end because there's some people frankly don't want to admit that they're voting conservative. I would suspect that a similar phenomenon might right exist with the PPC. And I'm not suggesting they're GONNA win seats but in such a tight race if they pull for four or five percent rather than two or three percent in a lot of tight races back could be the margin and I'm kind of curious to see if the BBC manages to play spoiler in in a few seats out there well in Quebec is certain places at certain places NBC in the nine five again. It's one of those things are at this point we're so close. Every vote counts and every vote. You don't get as one that's keeping you from winning so it's like. I'm very curious to see if that plays out great. Well thanks. Thanks to the three of us this morning for a week in the road this Rafi. THANKS FOR COMING OUT THE FIRST DIAMOND CAM my partner in crime for the last seven weeks on the Pali cast and especial showed to allison who behind the scenes making this all work as are fantastic producer and thanks to you. The listeners for tune into blue sky strategy groups team of political observers for this week's Canadian. podcast what you need to know about politics this week in Canada and Louis Guy Strategy Group is one of Canada's leading public affairs firms for government relations lobbying and strategic communications mutations advice across Canada visit us at Blue Sky Strategy Group DOTCOM Blue-sky Strategy Group is a proud member of the Global Communications Alliance.
Is Canada Broken?
"The welcome to this week's episode of Blue Sky Strategy Groups a Canadian. Podcast what you need to know about this week in Canadian politics. I'm Alison Fair joining me this week. My colleagues Susan Smith Warning Alison Morning Cam. Wholesome and Neil Brodie. Good morning all right. Welcome happy Friday. Let's start off with the protests. That's the story that just keeps going It doesn't seem to be going away. We've got meetings Continuing today in Smithers BC. With the Minister Carolyn Bennett and the BBC minister. I want to start with you. Neil National Post Poll. This morning came out. Sixty three percent of Canadians believed that Canada is broken. Eighty three percent in Alberta is the government showing that they know what they're doing here good strategy that they're going or is this just a fire that trudeau just can't stop. Well it's been I think. What four weeks? Now of protests three weeks or four weeks so that meetings are occurring is is is good The first minute we'll talk about this. I think the first ministry me a good move in the right direction to That will start the nation to nation relationship that Mister Trudeau has talked about four five or six years. Now This is you know last week. I saw Carolyn Bennett walking along a spark street and being grumpy old conservative I still almost went up to her and said you know good luck because good luck really and truly this is a. This is a tough one. I don't know what the right way. And why the right solution is nobody does. But at the sides are talking is good I would hope Th- There wasn't much of a readout from yesterday's meetings and Smithers The ministers and the the The first nations chiefs Came out and said we had a good essentially talk and we'll continue talking tomorrow What I would like to see is The the first nations chiefs come out tomorrow and say hopefully if this if if things go well command and say we've had productive talks. We will continue to talk and some expression of we thank everyone across this country for standing in solidarity with us but please in the sake of safety security the economic flow of goods. Would you please stand down? As part of the the the protests that are on rail tracks or Neil tracks near other transportation infrastructure. I I think that would go a long way for for a goodwill the start developing again in the Canadian public broadcasting public and absent thoughts This just becomes more and more of a problem for the government. I totally agree like I think we need to hear more from the chiefs Asking Canadians to to stop the book. Blockades Cam I want to go to you end EP former. Mvp MP. Nathan. Cullen is of this Discussions in Smithers What do you think we're going to see? Will we see as Neil said them? Come Out Make a statement. How do think The the talks are going so far honestly I take the fact that nothing has come out. We'll talk to be a good sign because to me that means productive things are happening and there is an attempt to show respect for either side to me. Typically when things are going bad. That's when leaks happen and trying to assess blame elsewhere and the fact that we signed onto that come out today. I last night. I think it was a very good thing to seem Nathan involved as well is something. Frankly heartens me. Because he he's from the region but he understands all sides of this issue so I think he really is able to come off as an honest broker in this. If people are expect honestly. I don't expect some grand statement to come out and say everyone stand down and not not because I don't think it should happen just because I think honestly the conversations just started. I suspect the Spectra Jalousie. If things are going well they'll be more talks to come in the very near future but to me I I've been pretty clear on this road all this one of my frustrations on this person. Who's SP- who is fought for indigenous rights his whole professional career and rode the under bill and participated more than a few protests in his day. this has been frustrating for me because because you have seen on both sides groups glomming on to try to push their own agendas. That's not all tapping. I know. Some people are trying to take that point. Blow it up and say well. That's all this is it's not. There's legitimate protest happening here but there are also people pushing their own agendas here. Well whether it'd be Jason Kenney Gr- glomming onto one side or the environmental groups glomming onto the other side. It's happened like that has to be accepted in this and to me. This is where the Rubber GonNa hit the road because to me. I look at the pro. The blockade that was in for example. The ones going on kind of walkie. Now they've been very clear they said when the hereditary chiefs tell. Step down where cool. We'll step down the question. What are the other some of these other protests going to do? Are they going to respect that as well? That's a true sign of if you're really in this for the right reasons or not and I suspect there's some better just frankly are not so that to me is going to be worthy. Robbery starts hit the road. It's interesting you mention that national postal south region that to this morning and in that same poll there was a question of has gotten to our things too. Partisan has gotten to partisan and eighty three percent of the people not pull said yes so to me. I don't think I don't think I think the prime minister is between a rock and a hard place but I don't think other leaders have helped us at all. I think honestly everyone has their has their scarlet letter of shamed wearing this. I've been frustrated with Andrew. Scheer saying trying to direct the RCMP. One Way I've been upset with with drug meet Sane and trying to attract at the other way. I've been upset with these up. Shut for trying to do both at the same time. Somehow I've been upset with with Francois Goal for trying to insinuate their AK forty sevens with an okay. This is like everyone is got. Calmed up. Bleep down people like you do not help us ituen this by throwing crazy rhetoric. And you're starting to start spill out last night on social and this is really starting to have real consequences for people. I've got friends of mine who've received death threats in digital I saw last night. There's a group here in our young a group of young digits leaders here in Ottawa And they usually meet on Fridays. And they're they put had to have to relocate to an undisclosed location because they've received death threats. I think it's just getting to the point where a lot of people are just getting frustrated. And I think that's where this pogos is that they think it's broken because they don't see any progress blah blah blah blah. My point is this. The temperature needs to be brought down frustrated but you have still have those groups on the far fringes. Who are looking at this as an opportunity. We're looking at the chance to vent. Would they believe this is serious stuff? I understand people are frustrated but we really need to bring the temperature back out and starting to come out is the prime minister. Bring that temperature. How does this these talks? Bring that temperature down so that Groups are not feeling threatened and that we can have productive meetings. Well I don't think it's all on the shoulders of the prime minister. I mean it's a complicated issue and my colleagues have raised a couple of things. This is this whole issue has been like a pot on the stove and it's been boiling with a lid on it and the Lisbon rattling right and it was rattling a lot. I would say if the temperature was at nine on my stove. That's what makes things boil. I think we're down to about seven so there's still a summer. There's still some steam coming out but the the lid on the pot has stopped rattling for the moment and I think that is The credit goes to some of our political leaders. It goes to some of our indigenous leaders and it certainly goes to law enforcement by not coming in and by trying to find creative solutions to keep the temperature down on this the challenge with this With the issue is it's actually it's two issues and it's multiple issues it started. Let's remember with with sewage and chiefs of the hereditary chiefs and an internal dispute within the community about a WHO speaks for the community because there are people that support the coastal gasoline the project. They're tired of managing poverty. They WANNA manage prosperity or at least have an opportunity for it and the conflict within their own community with some some of the Teri chiefs. Who aren't happy with the pipeline. We've had pylon as my colleagues have talked about and there have been people There's been political pylon and there has been activists pylon and the pylons happened for a couple of second issue. As I said there's two issues. The second issue is one hundred fifty years of Canada getting it wrong and dealing with our indigenous people some of the pylon legitimate when it comes to that and some of the some of the the I'm not saying the blockades are legitimate. But I'm saying that the solidarity this type solidarity thing that's come. Forward is fine but the pylon from some of the environmental radicals the pylon from just the outright radicals. I'm calling you know there and some of the political won't call them radicals but there's a few arsonist walking around and I'm putting arsonists quotes there's political arsonists and there's some activists arsonist and in Canada. If you protesting legitimately you don't need to wear bandannas on your face to do it. And you shouldn't be checking palettes and lighting them on fire on rail transit so the protests peace and this is where I where. I'm really torn is that. I grew up in a generation where frankly has indigenous youth. You didn't speak out. There was a real sense of hopelessness and people didn't speak oaks. It felt. There's no note rea no reason to do it what I will no more. We saw that start to change. That made me feel good so I can't sit here in be mad at digital for stepping out. I know aren't checking. They're not checking gaslight on nobody. Here's here's the thing. It's a mixed bag. I'M NOT SAYING THERE SOME. That aren't but there are others. That are the point is is that. I can't be upset with that but I think the differences and this is where WH- agree with you and I've said this before during out in the more it felt very I felt very united. Everyone was kinda pushing the same direction. Regardless of where you sit on general issues in the community everyone was kind of pushing the same direction in this case. That's not happening. It's not happening at all. And I think the big thing at the end of the day for me and I thought the line I've been using very very very simple. This is about the rights of indigenous people for us to choose for ourselves. Whatever those choices may be and we don't. We're not asking for you to like the choices we make whether it be for a project against the project but it's our choice to make and what we're asking for you to do support that and the problem is is that what you have is you. Have you have some people either side who are going to support h choice? Some earn of sport in other choice. Not The right to choose and I think that's where we're getting into that's worth next up and that's where the long-term were cast to come right and this is the next thing and moving onto the FM because this is something that the one of the things that prime minister is doing right. And that's busting these back into two issues and enabling indigenous leadership to come to Ottawa and have a place and have an outlet for the reconciliation discuss reconciliation discussions. The other things that are upsetting the rest of the people who are on the line who it's beyond the Pale but kneeled here point on the net. I think what I hope to see happen in. The next few days is wet sweating community members and they don't have to be hereditary chiefs because they're probably not going to be hereditary chiefs but they need to be the majority voices in those communities. Come out and say we support the pipeline. We want progress at least and discussion to take place. Please stand down and stop choking off the economy the economy of the other country of the country. We recognize that. There are other issues from an indigenous reconciliation agenda. That must be talked about. But that's not what today's issue is about. Let's move with the first ministers meeting. Let's move other things to a different table. Let us deal with our community issues when it comes to coastal gas with the wet sweat and within ourselves here but it's time everybody else to stand back and let's get to the table and off the barricade and it. Neil I WANNA ask you a conservative member. Doug Shipley he said that this could be acts of terrorism based on throwing pallets at the trains and all that do agree with that or are we going pushing the button too far there. Well what actually happened was he asked Bill Blair Minister Public Safety. Asked Mr Blair at a committee meeting if Mr Blair thought. This was an act of terrorism You know and in in the great Way that the media has they conflicted that into All concerned remembers thinks that these are acts of terrorism or made made but the way to avoid that would happen to use the word terrorism words matter. Sorry legitimate question he he. He started the question with my. My constituents are concerned that and then went on and that's the role of a of a of a of an MP to bring the concerns and and represent his or her constituents in the House of Commons What I I. I don't know personally. I don't think it's terrorism. You know It's probably criminal. Tutti to definitely. Yeah no disagreement there too late a fire and try and through lit burning a cargo pallets under a train Diana video. I the trains not stopping. I I'm not an expert on the criminal code but I suspect somewhere in there you can attach a criminal code offence to those sorts of things But to wrap up I would just echo Susan's points that the that the temperature has to come down and I do believe that. The media has a role in that too. There was an article this week. Put out by Maclean's that was completely Completely out of control where the columnist wrote the seven point plan in deciding whether right wing activists are going to become vigilantes and take the law into their own hands. And whether they're going to go smash heads together and I was completely irresponsible That that that's a conde- throwing a match They're not helpful And the media has to understand its its role in reporting fairly not writing inflammatory decisions others. There's enough little small people in basements typing out things on their keyboard that are inflammatory but the mainstream media doesn't have to do that Report fairly report reasonably and and all of that is that I know of like the initial epic nation. This we put out a statement a couple of days ago warning its own. Sayed says to travel in groups and not be alone in and be careful. 'cause people are receiving threats? Why agree with you writing it and I I wrote read their peace and question and it went pretty far maybe a little too far but I think also too. There has to be some recognition. That tempers are frayed. Oh one hundred percent and we are seeing people do things that need to be called out for sure for sure but they're you know if you're GonNa right if you're going to be fair and balanced to not to use a tired Fraser phrase attached to a certain or a phrase. It ties to certain media outlets You know where the articles on a left wing climate anarchists Know some of us in this remote enough to remember Left wing climate environmental anarchists spiking trees on the West Coast so that when the logging the logging teams went through. They would snapped chain on the chainsaw and potentially hurt themselves here. This is again. It's separate and aside from the indigenous issues. There are other people who are latching onto this This movement who are not saying and in your home that whole situation Tampa it's It's blowing it out more so than it needs to be Let's hope the meetings Make some progress here making progress and I want to say first ministers meeting I know that the indigenous protests will dominate the agenda. But something else that might do dominate the agenda as well as the corona virus We're seeing continuously spread now. There's you know toxin and articles about it becoming. Is this a pandemic now? I don't think we're at that point but people are starting to think that Susan say ask you is. The government seemed to be communicating their concerns reassuring Canadians to this point in a in a good is their strategy. Good with the exception of with the exception of Patty. Hi Do telling people to stock up. I think we've we've kept the temperature at the right level for this I actually have confidence in the federal government's response. I think we learned a lot from SARS We have very competent public health. People across this country at the federal at the provincial and the municipal levels there is a very high level of coordination. Going on Right up into a you know discussions at Special Cabinet Committee at the federal level. So I do think our governments across the country are responding as they need to. I think it's up to people to do their part as well. Which is wash your hands cough into your sleeve. Don't cough it other people stay home. Yes all. The common sense stuff applies even further and I think ensuring that we that we are vigilant vigilant and aware without causing unnecessary. Panic is the right way to go and Cam. Do you agree are we. We're we're are we staying at the right course in terms of keeping Canadians reassured and not panicking that this corona virus. We're good. We're in a good place right now. I I I agree Susan about our about our officials here at home. My worry is more about frankly. Our neighbors it's other situations other countries. 'cause we will receive as things start to really take off it's Fr- when it happened. In China we did not get the full information. What's happening the cost of that broke out in Iran? The same thing the the. Who still believes that? It's much worse than it actually is and obviously were we have we have. Our American neighbors are who aren't exactly Studies ineptitude perspiring uninspiring confidence in me these days especially when basically well okay fair over. The point is is that I was watching on. Cnn on Wednesday. They had their destroy on Thursday morning that there had effective control Dr Coach. Go on and talk about basically. He was going to brief the president that day missing. Here's the things I'm going to tell the president right then. They do the press conference finals Wednesday the night before and after the press conference trump says all. Won't Vaccines Sooner Than Me Good? It's just like the go buy stock. Then Dr Foce comes up and said you know what? Here's what basically repeating what he said on air but base calling it out and then the next day. Yeah we're long. Officials will talk anymore. Situation like this information is the important thing to go up. You'll be informed so they can react and not overreact and having it from the people that actually know what they're talking about like a medical officials exactly and that's my worry here. It's not like there's only so much we can control within own borders when it comes to append a potential pandemic and the thing is too is that there's going to be knock on effects like we saw what's happened in the stock market. The last couple of days like the Dow Jones Estee had single biggest point loss in its history. Almost twelve hundred points on this alone and bats the thing you're seeing. Japan close schools for a month. We've seen In Switzerland the the Big Geneva auto show which the mass of auto show for all of Europe is cancelled now because of this facebook has their has their big annual conference of all their people in May in San Jose. They canceled it today. Because of this. So you're starting to see this. People people are making making decisions. They're making choices. And it's going to have knock on effects on not just the health of our human health but also the economical the country and we're that goes so yeah like it's it's it's it's this to watch and obviously as a middle powers government. There's only so much we can do within that. So it's driving. I take my hat off to the garment and this that they have been level headed and the fact that they've been trying to control what they can control within this environment meal. I want to ask you. How do we or have is the government in this in light of this? We don't have anything of concerns here but what we were concerned about is our economy and how this is going to affect our economy. What does the government what strategy they need to do to get the economy still moving and not crash corona viruses corona virus If it comes to Canada in Greek numbers We'll see the same things that can we're talking about you know raptors games being played an empty auditoriums. Vancouver canucks games played in empty. Arenas already are Dow gains release and HOBB's fans There's there's nothing that the the government can do this public health issue and if if the current various comes in a big way to Canada people will have to stay at people will have to Work from home people will have to take care of sick relatives And this The virus spread will will run. Its course The government I cast my mind back to two thousand fourteen when he bola in. Western Africa was running rampant The GOVERNMENT DIDN'T CLOSE BORDERS. Free Bola and it has a fifty percents mortality rates So I don't think they're gonNA do that for Krona virus with a two percent mortality rates. I would to see the government I cast my mind back to the SARS SARS Time in Toronto. Twenty comments the Minister of Health at the time of former boss of mine was out at seven. Am every money to depress her every morning at seven. Am So the day would start with the latest news. This government's out at twelve twelve thirty kind of gets lost in the daytime. Shuffle of news. Be Nicer if they could get out a bit earlier to to give Canadians and update I you know. How do you get get the Connie Rolling again? Will you get the trains rolling again? And that goes for Labour disruptions. That goes for shutdowns due to protesters. I I would say that's doing More more actual damage to our economy Then then the viruses even though I do You know looked at my are myself invested? Rsp stock Portfolio last night and saw big red number as opposed to a big green number I it will run. Its course like Susan said. Wash your hands coughing your sleeve. I do think Patty Hairdo type. You'll talk with just echoing. What the chief. Medical Officer of health for candidates said Wednesday night which was you should be prepared Not a not a hair on fire way but you should be prepared to take care of a sick relative who may be at home in quarantine for for three weeks and you know. How do you do that? You get Eighteen cans of chicken soup Gettin- cans of Spaghetti O's and you get some frozen bread and And hope that Whatever food delivery services available in your area is not swamped by home deliveries? Well I mean my kids. This yesterday asked me. Should we be scared and I said no unless you have been with someone that you feel has gone to China or done that traveling you can breathe and you're not gonNA get sick. You're not going to contain this anything. We need to keep getting that message out to Canadian. I agree I think the government is doing a good job at that We'll wrap it up there guys. Thank you very much for joining me today. Susan Cam and Neil. Thanks thousand and we'll do it again next week and thanks to you. The listeners for tuning into blue sky strategy groups team of political observers for this week's a Canadian. Podcast what you need to know about politics this week in Canada. Blue Sky Strategy Group is one of Canada's leading public affairs firms for government relations lobbying strategic communications advice across Canada. Visit us at blue sky. Strategy Group DOTCOM Blue Sky Strategy. Group is a proud member of the Global Communications Alliance.
Devil in the Details?
"Welcome to this week's episode of Blue Skies Strategy Groups Canadian podcast. What you need to know about this speak in Canadian politics? I'm Alison Fair and joining me this week. My colleagues Jeff Turner Camera Hallstrom and Neil Brodie Happy Friday everyone morning so we finally got all. The kids are back in Ottawa. Back to school and we kicked it off with the speaker of the House. A comments which I think all of us were quite surprised about We Will Miss Jeff Regan and then we had this speech from the Throne Jeff Let's start with you. Your thoughts on the overall overall content of the speech big day in Ottawa. Yesterday it is just Without a partisan hat on it's always really really sort of reassuring reassuring to watch. I think political science terms what we call the peaceful transfer of power in this case. It's transferring from the government to itself but we go through all this pomp and circumstance stance and we have these We have these protocols and these these sort of a royal prerogatives and all these things because it's a stabilizing force and I think it's always nice to step back in kind of appreciate that. Our system of government does a very good job of evening us out and finding compromises and that's a good segue into what what is this throne speech it is. It is a document intended to start the conversation on compromises and I think the biggest surprise at a top line fine. I wouldn't call it a shock but it's just something we weren't expecting as much of was a bit more specificity in terms of a few specific programs or or specific mentions I think this sort of wisdom going in was that the government was willing to Do what most own speeches do which is paint the sort of broad landscape of the challenges and opportunities facing the country in the years ahead and then proposing how to go about solving solving those and a majority contacts like we saw in two thousand fifteen with the throne speech of the incoming Trudeau government. Typically that that is a a rehash of the campaign platform and the game that everybody would play in. That would be. Hey where's that one platform item seems to have been forgotten and is that a signal that it has auden. was there anything forgotten in your point of view in this renting's forgotten because you you just simply couldn't put the liberal platform and the throne speech and pretend to be interested collaborating with other parties. Not because those things are anathema to those parties I think we saw. There's a lot of shared ground in particular with and EP Social the policy the Conservatives have been opening up much ground to share or a bridge to walk across. I don't think we'll get into that wanted. Eat Yup But we found out if if if there was an additional if there was a ninth were that said oil than Mr Blanchette wouldn't voting for this so I I think they struck balance so what. I was surprised to see us that there are a few more items in there which will lead into the budget conversation with those two potential partners. My sense is the government would prefer to work with the the the blocker back while on the budget But whoever wants to stand behind this throne speech as a declaration of values and priorities. I think every party can see some value in this the questions by these values in playing along politically and what we saw. Some people lead flexing last week because they know the block in the past the government is going to fall today but make no mistake. I mean the number one thing going. Into all of twenty twenty years the Conservatives can't go and find election right now they're leaders imperil And they're they're volunteer basin as a campaign organization would be in disarray. They had to go to the polls two months from now. I mean how many people are going to open volunteer. When you're going through internal party divisions the end EP has less than no money And fewer candidates and have had some serious bruising in different parts of the country although they are trying their best to show it the block wants to stick around as long as possible because their newly relevant relevant again so they they have an interest in sticking around to so and the Liberals have proven leader. uh-huh yes that's right exactly Cam Cam. Jeff brought in there. The word compromise is there enough in that throne speech and will allow the MVP to work with the Liberal Party government. Excuse me this is interesting because I saw your eyes go well couple of his comments commitment. This is interesting because I don't take too much talking. What leaders have to say directly after a throne speech a minority? Because let's face facts. It's just a in. The speech is a statement of high minded ideals for most part. Yes most people have a hard time to scream especially in a minority context. You don't want to get too specific specific and we saw that. There wasn't a lot of specificity. They're eating for a what was there wasn't like knock me over the head. I'm stunned to see this. They're kind of specificity. Starting points the for the MVP even Jagmeet Singh reply to it. Was You know what we wanted to see a bit more we want to see action with all deference prince to meet a throne speech is not where you see action. It's an a legislative piece after so this is part of the dance you see is that you can't seem to be too happy with what you've seen. You can't seem seem to be too upset. And where do you go with this. And Yeah one of the spanners in the works. Here is the fact that you have the block who are just it. I find interesting playing the role. The frankly you used to use Lusa play all the time where he just basically said. I know where I am. You know. You don't want to admit it but it reminds me of the debate us to say well. I know I'm not going to be prime minister to have you know the same right. It's the same kind of role where he can just kind of be how he is and you saw that yesterday. He's like well. I'm going to support it. So that forces everyone else to readjust fast and for the PA how you have to be to be pushing for the things you want to see without maybe pushing too hard. That's kind of the fighting this so I think in the end because the block lock isn't going to back the bill back. I think Mcginn little more room to go with but in the end. There's a lot of things in there that that frankly weren't in the liberal platform. I noticed right away. A federal minimum wage age increase. Something that he's called for a long time and and get heckled about over all the time because just how many people fall under the federal minimum wage get there was. You know there are things like that. And they're the MVP has called for. Okay you can say you've gotten something so there's a few more days to the peace of this as well as people need to kind of calm down the rhetoric a group of it. This is not one of these situations that we saw the last minority where you know where there are always opportunities where the tension was much higher. It's just not there right now. So yeah I heard he over like when we were listening to it yesterday and going over the words in the in the speech you You mentioned possibly that The the wording over handguns ends In in there might not get the reaction from the MVP that the Trudeau government might want the the reaction to past memories and experiences. I wish I could forget To be honest let's face it when it comes to hand when it comes to gun legislation nations general there's history and that's long registry in. Everything came with that and obviously the MVP when that was a big issue at the time it wasn't divisive issue within the caucus us and within the membership It's one of the one of those areas of get one of those cleavages. You could hit in if you really wanted to make life difficult on somewhat and when I when I read quote miles first reaction when I heard that then when I read a little more closely I looked exactly what was said. I Pol these enact handgun gun bandstand. EP called for that. This salt style. assault style rifle ban that something and even called for in the past and the idea of a buyback program. I wouldn't be a D- D did Nestle hit on those areas but again in a in a minority in a in a situation you look at these things are closely how might play out and I can see how constituents of certain MP's will react and the pressures that puts on them to act a certain way and just the unintended consequences. That could bring about. But what I will say is this is that Ah we saw this in the Harper government's because obviously the situation was very different. There wasn't a natural dance partner. You saw a lot more. I called poison pills throwing in their something that somebody had to swallow to get through which made it difficult and and created issues like that. You didn't necessarily see that. There is nothing in there that I would look at. Maybe outside of the The handgun ban for the Conservatives as like a poison pill that was. There's no way I could swallow this. So and so neil poison pill Was it specific enough for the conservative because Andrea Sherr when he afterwards was look quite angry once again and not too thrilled with the contents anti the speech I think sometimes people confuse anger with earnestness or or concern You know people people used to Say See that Andrew Scheer was to smiley and now they say too angry while you know what it's one or the other so Perhaps he's just trying to be more serious Listen Fund fundraising for the Conservative Party of Canada was never better than when we were fighting against the long gun registry That's crass politics but it's the truth Millions millions and millions and millions of dollars poured into the Conservative Party Beginning the day after the liberal government brought into effect the long gun registry Whether Mr Trudeau follows through on what he's placed in this In this speech from the throne regarding Firearm policy is is yet to be seen seen But if he starts down that road We will conserve party will be financially ready for the next election sooner than anybody else anybody else. Any other party in Canada With respect to the rest of the speech from the throne you know the old adage used to be the liberals campaign to the left and governed from the right right now. They're showing that. They are campaigning from left and governing even further left There's there's nothing in here that Sorry right there's not much in here. That appeals to a small C conservative voter The casual conservative supporter There's there's some long-overdue stuff concerns about indigenous health For One Easier access to family doctors Mental health standards in the workplace. That these are all good things That any can he can get behind But as far as a Cross Partisan support I'd be surprised if More than twenty conservative showed up for the vote. Or they're all gonNa vote against it one one of the other. So do you think because in watching the political show's afterwards And my F- My friend and former colleague Don Martin said you know in in all the eight years he he's been covering it in myself as well. We've never seen a throne speech that actually gets to specific. So why were the conservatives like Michelle rental looked like. She was about to a cry on television. Why did the curve conservatives and this is maybe a question for all of you if you're on the party in that in reading in the speech are you telling them to go out there and just be so dramatic on? It isn't a good thing for Canadians to see this drama after the throne speech when there's not too much details in the words start with you Neil. The opposition's Role is to oppose so no matter. You Know Mr Mr Trudeau could've come out and said he's going to increase pipeline capacity across the country by four times and He's going to make sure that every every family gets a a firearm subsidy or You know there's going to be roads built between EDMONTON CALGARY RED deer north battle furred and the Conservative Party. Still going to pose it. Because that's what they have to do. characterizing it as people crying overly overly emotional about it is i. Think a bit of a stretch But the the the message from The Liberal Party and Mister Trudeau and and miss freeland since October. Twenty second is we have to listen to all of all Canadians and we have to govern for all Canadians Canadians. And as I said are there. There's things in here that all Canadians can support which are good things but If if if those comments in the last thirty forty days were or going to speak more to conservatives. There's absolutely nothing here that speaks to large a couple of things first off before I came up. Here record. Tell was catching Mr Shears response the response to the throne speech in the House and he started off by talking about how Canadian sent a message. And how the prime minister said he'd heard the message and but then quickly went into but he obviously hasn't heard or taken it to heart of kind of paraphrasing. But then Mr Scherr continued on with commentary metairie which kind of also gave the impression he hadn't taken what happened to heart either because and I understand where he's coming from an agreement politics piece because there absolutely is that having been unofficial opposition piece that you have to you have to oppose. What's to a certain degree? I think the problem is is that it's remembering what it is you're dealing with and the devils come in the details. I think that's why when I watched the MVP response part of my concern was that you're getting too much into what's asking for details from this is not about details right. You're not gonna see that until until you see legislation here that's rising that's for sure it's the same same kind of thought. Well look yes you you need to show the happiest at the same time how far you go down that road and I think wanting to remember all this at everyone is frankly finding their own little battle right. Now and I think that's why for the for the government having a very nondescript throne speech worked because let's face face facts. We know that the Conservatives are going through some leadership challenges right now and let's face it the next real big vote outside yesterday. We'll be the budget and we don't know I know what the state of the conservative leadership will be at that point and that and that to me. That's where the rubber really starts to hit the road on this. But in the meantime it's one of these things where it's like. Look there's some there. There are things in that speech that I could easily see turning hard right on the on the MVP right away said about like Jeff made the point that the word toil was conspicuously absent but there was language is very clear about getting resources to market which means pipelines. We know that so what happens when and that actually starts hit the road and something extra Ford what's the MVP going to do or when it comes to the implementation like I know I already heard it from a couple new Democrats. The language on Pharma Care it didn't mention universal single payer. So what exactly does this look. Great again. So to me the devil's always in the details and that's where the fight really starts happened. So I I think the opposition parties need to kind of slow the role a little bit here and kind of wait for that piece to come. Jeff hearing the essence of your question. Try to stay contemporaneous with today and yesterday and people are welcome to disagree with me and especially people who may have a different weed. I'm getting this out of the way so that I can so who I can say my piece. which is I think in the risk for Mr Scherr in particular but Mr Singh is also dancing a fine line on this Canadians? Who are watching doing this? Because it's just been such a bruising kind of election campaign political times internationally and nationally are challenging. Canadians are tuned in and generally kind of frustrated with our political process. been so they're watching. I think closer than they may otherwise. And if if if I'm right and people as I said can disagree with it. I kind of see that the Justin Trudeau in the liberal. Government have made that pivot and it was quite a marked pivot two days after the election to kind of put away the really hot white hot rhetoric and and start to fill the role and duty of government as they are as they are entitled and want to do in the the campaign ended right and I think the risk that the conservatives in the end ep are are running right now is since October twenty second and up until today hey and perhaps for some weeks to come. The campaign is very much on like if I can paraphrase all of Andrews here it's like I can't believe thrones shouldn't have my whole platform in it. What the heck right right like? That's just ridiculous. Right and then missing is going on with a number of very specific items that are his platform and he has been telling people that I am here to deliver for you. That's fair there but all of these people are in its minority so we do know that the permanent campaign is an element of a minority government. But these two leaders in particular have been overtly the kind of electoral campaigning in this interim period as if the the full electoral campaign on and I I just I wonder under weather. Canadians are starting to see a difference. Evolving between these sort of opposition parties were continuing on that that higher pitch if I can put it that way rather other than trying to find into camps point the the common ground the working Taylor is GonNa come in twenty twenty. But that's the risk I see and I guess my only caution if I am looking forward and less than service because as I've said before and I believe I don't if they vote for one or two standalone pieces of legislation the next two years like that that is going to be about as much as they do. It's going to have to be right up their alley like a middle class tax cut. I mean if they don't vote for that bill on the premise that it gives does not attack people north of two hundred thousand dollars dollars. That's a pretty awkward political position yourself in. Maybe they'll be shared things around resource sector or other things but legislatively they're not going to be supporting much But on the end EP side they have to work they have to find centerpiece yesterday. They have to find the opposition. Nuts fit on the government bolts the whole the whole thing together because of the whole thing falls apart I would argue. The Liberal Party is in the best position to go into an election today versus everybody else And that's been sustained for a while and so if you're if you're betting the house you better be careful about how far you carry that bluff because if that bluff is called Or you're not willing to bend enough to just make it work The consequences can be big for a party with the MVP especially that actually some very serious consequences because if they went through an election like a month and a half from now they'd be bankrupt. They wouldn't they wouldn't be able to do it. How far's Taylor -sego both three writings your though if this thing were to fall? Apart in January march February we're not going to a campaign campaign the chance to form a government that's our system the G. G. which played us out a little further and something would happen if that ever came to that. I don't think it's going to buy like looking looking at past experience as a good lesson for how things may come and I remember very vividly the last minority because we kept seeing these shows rose from Michael Ignatieff. At the time of. WE'RE GONNA stand up or putting. I remember him in Sudbury. We're putting the Conservatives on nobody's holding them to account and then they backed down one hundred st votes and I remember the Rick Mercer piece when they brought out the whole the whole church choir sang backing down loving. It was one of the best piece of Canadian satire. Ever seen in my life but the point is is that it all comes down to that. Vote once rubber hits the road. That's when you'll see people really at and that's why I think in the minority. That's what we Kinda have to take Kosta back like yes. We're used to pay more attention. And everything going on but really pay attention to moments where he actually has to cast a vote in actually means something in that in that period. Sometimes we'd go ahead in our office. We work one block from where the House of Commons sits. Every day we view does any of this punched through to Canadians. Who Wake up every day and take the subway or the car to work Pick up groceries on the way home. Feed the kids does does. This is a speech from the throne today. Anybody wake up this morning start talking about in coffee shops. No telling you throw on. This is something we you talk about But it is. I just say that to bring us all back to reality that this is the speech from throwing the first step of To two maybe the three year process of the forty third parliament But as as a as a guiding document I do agree with you guys that it's a high level aspirational. There's going to be maybe five or six piece of legislation attached to Keep keep pillars in here And to your point Jeff as concert is the sole conservative in a room full of left-of-centre people trust me. ADP would disagree but that's okay to conservatives everybody conservative is a liberal. Don't worry her liberal supporters There's there's there's things in here that are good for the country and we all sit there. Let's hope let's hope we go into twenty twenty that you know everyone just gets along and I. I would like to see to be on his Andrew shears rhetoric and tone to come down a little bit more kind of seen happening. We've seen Jason Kennedy Scott Bowl covering the temperature. Ford we've seen the weird sight of Doug Ford being conciliator and all that I I think people have kind of realized that temperatures gotten hot and now time to kind of bring it down like we saw. I saw the news last night. Jason Kenny and the federal government agreeing on exemptions for industrial matters his car flex planes. This people need to remember. I think the important thing here is stone and this is where my word of warning to to the government is that the tone means everything when it comes down to a while in a minority you can try to squeeze the other sites. Hi It's until it's your fault if an election comes there's another person at that table and that's the person who's setting the tone and who's actually governing the place and make an easy like really. My argument is that Stephen Harper it could keep a minority got to minority government going over two years each with basically no natural ally. There's no reason why Justin Trudeau schnapp keep this going orange for at least as long. When he's got to natural allies sitting there there should be a much easier job if he doesn't get too high and mighty high on himself and you know what so far? He struck the right tone on but again the other parties. They could have to wait to see what happens and see what happens on the rubber. Gets the real on that note. I think we will have to see what happens. Look to see what happens in the twenty twenty honey. I really hope it. The tone does come down a little bit. I think for everyone across this country would like to see that we dealt with it in the election and now let's just get the job done so Jeff Cam Neil always a pleasure. Thank you guys and thank you to you. The listeners for tuning into blue skies strategy groups groups team of political observers for this week's a Canadian. podcast what you need to know about politics this week in Canada it loose guy. 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