20 Burst results for "Ned Davis Research"

How to Buy in a Hot Housing Market

Money For the Rest of Us

04:46 min | 4 months ago

How to Buy in a Hot Housing Market

"I recently got an email from listeners listening about six months or so has listened to well over one hundred episodes of the show. He writes that he's relatively new to investing. He's been investing for three years now, as he graduated from college in two thousand seventeen. He's been saving for his first home purchase in Austin. Texas. He writes the Austin Housing Market is very hot at the moment arguably one of the hottest markets in the country even with the recent effects of covid nineteen. He points out the median sales price in Austin has increased over eleven percent since this time last year, and there are forty five percent fewer homes on the market now versus a year ago he would like to buy a house in early twenty, twenty one. But after seeing the market conditions, he's worried that he might be entering the real estate market at the wrong time. He has heard of stories from realtors in home buyers about individuals and families putting offers of ten to fifteen thousand dollars over the asking price for homes that aren't even on the market yet only to find out, they did not win the bidding war. In short, he continues I'm wondering if you could offer some. Rules of thumb to look for as a first time home buyer in I. Hot Market such as Austin. I'm conflicted because I don't want to buy at the wrong time and potentially lose value in my home only after a few short years however at the same time if this market to continue at this pace for several years to come buying in the near future, I think might be the right move. He points out he's tired of handing over his money to landlords and would like to start building equity in a home to diversify his current return drivers. Austin is not the only hot housing market. There are a number of them in fact, nationally in the US housing is on fire. In August of two, thousand, twenty, there were five point nine million homes sold on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That's the highest number of home since two thousand six and it's being driven because the average thirty year fixed rate mortgage at the end, of August was two, point, nine, four percent. The median single family home price in the US is up eleven point seven percent in the past year ending August twenty twenty. That's the biggest annual increase in twenty thirteen. Sales of newly built homes are up forty, three percent year over year the highest increase since one, thousand, nine, hundred, two. There have been about one million new homes built in the past year highest level since two, thousand six. The market is being driven because of the low interest rate, which is pushing up the value of all assets. Plus there's a desire for many given covid nineteen to move out of their city, for example, out more into the suburbs or the country. So increased demand and reduced supply because of concern regarding the pandemic. Some. People don't want potential buyers traipsing through their homes. Others don't want to sell because they're not sure they'll be able to find something to buy. The frenzy to purchase homes has pushed up valuations if we look at the value of household real estate. So the total value of houses and condos as a percent of economic output in the US GDP, it's a hundred and fifty eight percent. Total value of all houses divided by GDP is one hundred and fifty eight percent that's up from hundred and forty percent at the beginning of the year the all time high was one, hundred, eighty percent in two, thousand, seven, and the recent low was in two thousand twelve of one hundred, fifteen percent. This is data from Ned Davis Research. The. So the value of the housing stock relative to GDP is approaching that all time high of two, thousand seven, and then if we look at the case Schiller Index, it has appreciated since nineteen fifty-three on a real net of inflation basis of about point seven percent per year. That's the trend line. So we statistically create a trend line again, data from Davis research that trend line increases at point seven percent per year, and then we can see well, how much do current prices differ from that trend line and right now we're fifteen percent above the trendline. In two thousand, six, US home prices were forty percent above the trend line and then by twenty twelve, two, thousand, thirteen, they had fallen two point, nine percent below the trendline.

Austin United States Ned Davis Research Texas
Are We Being Forced to Buy Stocks

Money For the Rest of Us

06:27 min | 5 months ago

Are We Being Forced to Buy Stocks

"Last week in the insiders guide email newsletter I pointed out the expensive valuation of US stocks. Specifically I showed that the forward price to earnings ratio the P. E. based on earnings estimates over the next year was twenty, two point nine. That's three standard deviations above its average of sixteen times going back to two thousand, three at data from Ned Davis. Research. In reply to that email, Andrew wrote regarding stocks being expensive on a forward e true but there's no alternative. What do you do with bond yields near Zero and the vanguard total stock market? Index. Fund. Yielding two percent. By VPI, the vanguard total stock market ETF. JASA forwarded to me a paper by Bridgewater says, which I'll discuss in more detail later in this episode. I had a similar question from a plus member in the money for the rest of US plus member forums. He wrote. So the Fed signals that it wants to keep rates low for three more years. Canada's pension. Fund is reevaluating bond-holdings and you've got an army of small and large investors bidding up companies like Tesla and snowflake to absurdly hype. All this combined to make me think are we as individual investors now forced to buy equities? Is this the mother of all bubbles in which there's literally no other things suitable for purchase. There is a lot of speculation in stocks right now. Jim. Bianco Bianca Research pointed out that small traders are dominating the options market. Bear most of the trades right now and seventy five percent of that volume is an option contracts expire in two weeks. So short term bets. Look at South Korea and article from Bloomberg pointed out that day traders in South Korea have accounted for eighty seven and a half percent of the total value of stocks traded in the first part of September. You. Some men chief strategist at Samsung Securities said retail investors appear to be seeking short-term profits after hearing their next door neighbors earned lots of money from stocks after the March selloff. Receiving a similar situation in India. The Financial Times reports that the number of individual investor accounts rose twenty percent from the start of the year, the twenty, four million, and they point out that around the world, an influx of investors are investing in stocks for the first time. Are. We in a bubble? Is it a speculative frenzy? Are we forced to buy these stocks because there are no alternatives with also? One of the things I like to do investing is think about what's different this time what's unusual? What what doesn't fit the pattern? I had two instances of investing this past week where something didn't fit the pattern Lebron, I were driving up in the mountains of Montana and a small bear cub really bolted right in front of us no idea what it was running from. My son suggested he was running from the year twenty twenty. And then few days later at our front door, there were seven cows drinking water from the driveway eating our bushes. There are no cows around us. We live in an area that nobody keeps cows but there they were right in front of my house. Turns out. They had strayed from the National Forest, which is not very far some outfitters have grazing rights and drop off the cows and leave them there all summer pick them up come late October, and they had straight down because some of that newly cut barley fields, but it didn't fit the pattern. Cows at your front door. Don't fit the pattern. What's different now on investing front that could justify more expensive valuations for stocks. Well, for the first time, ever US interest rates are near zero from short term out to ten years. This is known as a flat yield curve, which is an unusual. We've had flat yield curves in the past. But it's flat near zero. There was a flat yield curve where ten treasury bonds and cash for yielding similar back from two thousand and five to two thousand seven. But yielding four percent. And from two thousand to two, thousand, two cash and tenure treasures were yielding five to six percent. Today, the ten year Treasury yield is zero point, six percent and cash is zero. The Federal Reserve intense to keep it that way. The recent policy statement suggests that they will keep their policy rate. What's known as the Fed funds rate near zero until labor market conditions have improved. The. Unemployment rate has dropped close to to to maximum employment and that inflation has risen to two percent is on track to moderately exceed two percent. They included their economic and rate projections and all, but four officials on the committee. Expect the Fed funds rate is still be near zero at the end of twenty, twenty three. Rates are low across the board. It is a different investment environment than we have ever faced before. And that's what this paper by bridgewater associates was about. It was titled Grappling With the New Reality of zero bond yields virtually everywhere. It was written by Bob Prince Greg Jensen Melissa fear, and Jim Haskell. I. Discussed Bridgewater Associates Founder Ray dallies views back in episode three, hundred changing world order in this paper bills off that. Before we continue let me pause and share some words from one of this week sponsors masterworks. I've shared on the show how low interest rates are on bonds and yields and cash about zero money has to be invested somewhere in preserving your wealth is as hard as it's ever been. That's where masterworks comes in. If you're looking to diversify out of the traditional public markets, then take a look at masterworks. They make blue chip art investing possible works by artists like Banksie, 'cause and Warhol. Art is a one point seven trillion dollar asset class that has performed better than s five hundred by one hundred and eighty percent between two thousand and two thousand eighteen according to Citibank.

United States Federal Reserve Jim Haskell South Korea Ned Davis Bridgewater Bridgewater Associates Financial Times Andrew Bianco Bianca Research Canada India VPI Tesla Bob Prince Banksie
"ned davis research" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:24 min | 7 months ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You so much. You are listening to Bloomberg. BusinessWeek. Going to be a big week. It's going to be a big weekend. The markets it's going to be a big week for earnings. Let's understand where we are on this Monday by setting the business week agenda with Gina Martin, Adam's chief equity strategist for bluer intelligence on the phone from New Jersey, along with Dave Wilson, Stock Center author the chart and stock the day he also joins us from New Jersey. Gina, I want to start with you. Set the table. This is a big week. It is a zoo. Matter of fact, it's the second biggest week of earnings. The biggest leak of earnings will be next week, but this is the second biggest week of earnings. We've got roughly 18% of market cap of the S and P 500 set to report Microsoft Intel in Verizon or some of the headliners this week. You know, I think that there's a lot of making up to Dio for somewhat disappointing financials reports, a financial beat generally beat second quarter earnings plastic 80% of the companies that have reported earnings so far have actually beat expectations. But That wasn't really enough for a market especially sensitive to what's happening with the outlook as estimates moved down for 2021. So what I think we need to see this week is some of these big tech names confirmed the optimism embedded in prices and at least confirm that the Alec for 2021 is pretty strong for stuff that continue to move higher, right We need Gina, like, give me something, right? You have something other than a modest bto. A horrible second quarter expectation is definitely what the market means. I have to say, because I've had a bunch of conversations over the weekend with people in different industries, and there's a lot of pessimism out there. Real concerns about what the economic backdrop is Dave Commodity in on our conversation, talked a little bit about the trade today because it really is tech driven. Absolutely. I mean, if you talk about such say the fan mag stocks or the Big Six, however, you want to refer to them and we're talking an Amazon Apple. Google their owner. Alphabet. Microsoft, Netflix, Facebook, probably out of order, but that's okay. I mean, basically, that's it. That's the entire gain in those six stocks. In fact, it really comes down to you know, Amazon, Microsoft Apple on Alphabet Pretty much I mean, it just goes to show you You know, there's been so much we'll focus on these larger tech companies, and they really are carrying the day at this point. The anticipation that they're already is going to look better than what we're going to see from a whole lot of other companies, presumably is part of that. I mean, you look at the stock indexes and you see, you know, the consumer Discretionary group is leading the way and that's the retailers, but it's all Amazon. Yeah, that's sort of how it is right behind them of the tech stocks and, you know communication services, which is Facebook and alphabet and everything else out of the 11 main industry groups is lower. Just goes to show you how things are setting up a this point as we await second quarter results. Yeah, Gina, I don't know You've seen so many market cycles. You know you have such great insight. I know one of the things that everybody is reading on the turmoil. Today's about Ned Davis Research kind of changing their tune when it comes To the market outlook and thinking more like changing. I think it was their They're bullish, really? Just abandoning their bullish calling us equities. What do you look for? Who do you also like to follow? That gives you a good idea of kind of where we go from here? Yeah, I mean, so I think you do look for the rate of change in economic momentum is one of the bigger drivers of potential optimism emerging for stocks going forward and the fact that really the economic the perception is that the economic momentum is going to stall over the next couple of months as we have had every new spike an infection rate, and that's that's one of the things that certainly is holding back a lot of confidence, a lot of sentiment toward the album and we probably need to see that removed to get people coming back to equities and mass. But I do think the other side of the story is the Fed has re inflated tremendously. There's a pretty reasonable prospect that we're going to get another fiscal policy package out of Europe. We may get another fiscal policy package supporting the U. S economy as well in the next couple of weeks and That's most likely going to surprise. He's really sort of Graham expectations to the upside because it is liquidity. It is money that's going to help support the economy's directly in some way, shape or form. Maybe it's not the most efficient money put it his money. On. I think you do need to price that in. I mean, I I take the point that Sang is driving a lot of gains when we look at the Big Five column saying of family sorry, and you do see that. Those evaluations relative to the rest of the S and P 500 are extremely high. However, this is not just a U. S story. This is something we wrote about last week, too. If you look at bat, the big tech stocks in China, the gap there in valuations is even bigger. Then the big tech gap here in the U. S. So this is a global phenomenon. This is a global tech concentration that I do think is somewhat at risk. But nonetheless, it keeps defying everybody. Every skeptics expectations that continue continue to go. Just a clarified that we're talking about by do Alibaba and Tencent Correct. Correct. Go alright. Continue exactly Thank you so much. Gina Martin, Adam's chief equity strategist for Bluer intelligence from New Jersey, as was Dave Wilson, Stocks editor for Bluebird Kelly back with US at 3 30 just after the close, Carol Man we've so much to cover over the next few hours, Jason, we're going to the latest on the virus. There are a lot of headlines whether it's vaccine related or treatments. We even interesting guest Dr Lisa Danzig. She is the chief medical officer at C E. T. F. It's Koven, 19 early treatment from Basically it's a team that has been put together to work and repurpose ng drugs to treat the virus. And I think this is going to become a much more important story as we move forward. Yeah, the therapeutics are something that maybe we've not thought as much or not talked as much about as we can. One thing we are talking a ton about getting back to school back to college in the fall boat in college President Clayton Rose is going to be a long interested to hear the perspective from that very good school. We've also got the chairman, President, CEO and founder, a blue energy That's in big news last week that moved the stock. We're going to get to them IBM earnings after the bell and someone who said it's time to start thinking for yourself. There you go. You you always have. All right. It's time for the Bloomberg BusinessWeek by the day one number that tells us what his number is..

Gina Martin Microsoft New Jersey Bloomberg Amazon Facebook Dave Wilson BusinessWeek Adam Google Dave Commodity Stock Center Europe IBM Fed Dio President Ned Davis Research consumer Discretionary group Verizon
"ned davis research" Discussed on KMOX News Radio 1120

KMOX News Radio 1120

07:47 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KMOX News Radio 1120

"Newbold? Dave Simmons and more dollars above voice of Saint Louis. KOMO ex. Have you break your New Year's resolution yet? Heavy two weeks. Why not right? Just having fun. I'm not a big New Year's resolution guy. I just I don't know that I've ever done one. I if there's something that I want to change your try. I don't care if it's July October, April, whatever, I I think when you focus on okay, I'm gonna get my act together. And starting starting after Christmas man starting after new years. Okay. I'm really going. I'm really gonna do that. I I don't know. I think you set yourself up more for failure. Why why not start December fourteenth? Why do you have to wait till January second? That's just me though. I'm reminded of that is I went to the Y today, and I couldn't swim. I mean, I eventually did. But I got there. And I I will not be one of those third person in the lane kinda swimmers. I just can't do it to per lane fine. But the pool was so crowded, and they were three to Elaine, except there were two lanes at had to 'em like, no. So I went down to where all the kitties play and the deep end where there weren't as many people, and I got on a little belt, and I did a swim. Jog for twenty five minutes. Gallo sweat going. And by then the pool cleared a little bit. So anyway, if your resolution was to exercise and get out to places like that, man. More power to you. Stay with it. Stay with it. All right, one more thing on that global recession. I love reading Ned Davis research NDR, I think there is good as anyone with some of their global market out watch, and they also use proprietary models, and they use indicators and all that. And I'm I'm reading here verbatim. With now. More than half of the indicators in our global recession watched flashing negative signals that gives us a high confidence at the global economy is currently in a sustained slowdown. But in the absence. Here's the key is what I was talking about in the absence of a you. US recession the global downturn will likely be less severe and along the lines of the last two global slowdowns. We saw in two thousand eleven and two thousand fifteen that's exactly what I had just been saying. And I think two thousand nineteen actually late eighteen in nineteen is going to sort of follow that pattern. No guarantee of that. I'll continue to talk about that. And update everyone including on the weekly Email commentary. But this final point point is is I think is very important to understand. After the eight cases in which at least half of the bear watch indicators reach their key levels. So it it just happened in the previous eight times the median drop for the US stock market was twenty point four percent now in that uncanny because we fell nineteen point eight percent. So Ned Davis research says the last time or the previous eight times when their proprietary model shows that the global economy is contracting. But the US does not join in that contraction and stays out of recession the US market on average. During those previous times falls on average twenty point four percent again. That's averaging sometimes it fell fifteen other times twenty five twenty six. Well, we just fell nineteen point eight or nineteen point three. I think when you look at the closing day were right there. So I get back to the point that folks, I do believe, and this is someone who said I think we're falling twenty percent last fall. At least twenty percent. And I'm not changing that I'm not updating and say well now, I think we're gonna fall thirty. I believe the majority of the decline is likely behind this. I'm not predicting anything about what I think we may. Or may not actually see and returns this year. I just don't think we're halfway through this horrible bear market in alternately is gonna fall forty percent. We are very data driven at the Simon's court is group. So we are only going to go by the information. That comes across our desk us history and also extrapolate look folks at like Ned Davis research who have all the boots on the ground and can feed us. This kind of information that we come to our own conclusions and base our models on that at this point. We believe without any other black swan event coming that the majority of the decline is be hind us. Now, we do have the government shutdown. Typically, and historically, this has never meant a hill of beans for the market. You have to know that. And I've talked about that. I think actually wrote that in a commentary couple of weeks ago. Government shutdowns have had no impact ultimately on the stock market. I don't know about this one. Because now, it's the longest in history. The longer it goes, then it will finally start to matter. This is interesting from SNP global ratings. They kind of get down to the weeds. But basically they have concluded that if the government shutdown last another two weeks, which means we'd be about halfway there. The total cost to the US economy within exceed the price of building the border wall in that interesting. I quote from the report here, according to the estimate by SNP global. It will take another two weeks to cost the economy more than six billion exceeding the five point seven billion that President Donald Trump. Wants to fund his proposed border wall. Quote. We estimated this shutdown could shave approximately one point two billion off the real GDP in the quarter for each week that the government is closed. That's from SNP's chief, US economist, Beth and Bovina. The firm came up with these figures by looking at costs related to the shutdown including loss productivity by furloughed workers and a decrease in sales for contractors to the government. So there you go bottomline. I know this is folks this gets frustrating for all of us as Americans doesn't it? I mean, I I know that most of us in this very divided political age, we all kind of take our spot, and we put our feet in the cement and say this is where I am. We look across the line and say you're wrong get with the program. I understand that. I think we could all agree though. No matter what side of the fence that were on politically right now, we all know that this just ain't right, man. I mean. I'm not offering any solutions here not gonna do it not on this show. That's for other political talk show is but as a as a certified financial planner who's in charge of hundreds of millions of dollars. It certainly is darn important of how this thing plays out. We have really not paid any attention to it. Because our research has successfully show that it has not had an impact on markets in the past. And really it hasn't this time either the market has moved on other factors you have to trust me on that. But the longer this goes on it's finally going to go from the back burner to one of the front burners for us, and we'll have to manage accordingly at this point. Not sure what that looks like. And I don't we're not planning on doing it anytime soon, we are hopeful hopeful, I know hope is not a strategy. But nonetheless. We remain hopeful that at some point there is some negotiation. I hope both sides understand. They can't have a hundred percent of what they want. And that's the last thing. I will say about that.

US Ned Davis KOMO Newbold SNP government Dave Simmons President Donald Trump Saint Louis Gallo Elaine Simon Bovina Beth
"ned davis research" Discussed on KMOX News Radio 1120

KMOX News Radio 1120

09:28 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KMOX News Radio 1120

"Stuff. We can still have a good friend. Free thirty-six in Saint Louis. Alright a little bit more on this oil slumped. What's been happening on the over supply side? This is really fascinating numbers. Geeks like me. So what you've got going on really or two things Saudi Arabia. Has well they came out with a target number back in two thousand sixteen OPEC did for all of its members and said, here's what you guys need to produce. Here's the cap that you guys need to produce and the Saudis have been overshooting those targets by oh just a million barrels a day. So people have talked about how the Saudis are. Now, we're going to cut back. They're not cutting back. They're going back to where they were supposed to be. From the agreement in two thousand sixteen. It's it is what bugs me about politicians to when they say, well, you can't cut that program. You're cutting spending to that program. No you want to increase spending by five percent. And we're going to approve a two percent increase. Don't go out and say that it's being cut by three percent. Man. I wish some voters are a little bit more informed of that stuff. It happens all the time. So you gotta do your own research on a lot of this. A lot of these talks that when they discuss cutting back spending is just cutting back a big increase, but it's still a net increase. Well, that's kind of what some of the analysts are talking about with the Saudis while they're going to cut production. Well, yeah. Only back to where they were supposed to be. And then you have the good all Americans. So do you know that American output oil output his about doubled since the start of two thousand twelve that's mainly due to fracking doubled. And this made a little bit of headlines. I was surprised it really didn't make bigger news. I did talk about it on the show back in one of the few times. I was on. This was more at the end of the summer, but US now has surpassed the Saudis and Russia as the largest oil producer in the world. Did you know that for the first time since nineteen seventy three? Before OPEC really got going. And remember we had two significant times in the nineteen seventies of those long gas lines of I Kurt in seventy three. And then again in seventy nine seventy eight seventy I think it was seventy nine, but the first was seventy three. Or the embargoes and all that. And that was the last time the US has been the leading producer of oil. In the world until now two thousand eighteen so you have the Americans out there just turning on the spigots and the Saudis, increasing and no wonder you have an oversupply at the same time. When you have folks worried about the global economy slowing down, and that means demand is going to come down at a time when you have oversupply is there any wonder while why crude oil prices slid seven and a half percent on Friday alone. Largest one day drop over three years pretty big. Now there are some benefits. Of course, it's like a tax cut for consumers. Right. As we pay less at the pump. It's amazing every time I see a buck something for just regular unleaded somewhere. Buck seventy five I saw somebody online saying that they found it at like one sixty five somewhere. And then he goes back up to two fifty whatever I always wonder is that the last time we'll ever see in under two, and then we get one of these little cycles again. So there are some positive benefits to to speaking of a global recession watch folks, I know this gets they can get a little esoteric times worrying about the rest of the world and their economic data. But it's important. I'm telling you, it's important, it affects your portfolio, it affects your big planet affects your 4._0._1._K defects, everything you have to know about it. Ned Davis research. I quote from that August group frequently there some of the best analysts in the world and the big institutions pay some pretty good money to get their insights just this past week. Actually, it was the week before the the date. Here's November fifteenth Ned Davis research, officially declared that the global economy has entered a recession now that is their opinion because there is no governmental data that has officially declared that and normally we don't get that until well after the fact if you know the history of this what typically happens just here in the US, for example. The government will issue. A report to say we are now officially in recession, and it started six months ago. So they have to be very reliant on backward-looking data what analysts like Ned Davis research is to try to cut that out and say, no we're looking at the data right now. And we believe that six months from now, nine months, three, months, whatever. That the government folks from around the world will look back and say, hey in November actually the global economy tipped into recession. Please hear me. That's we're not talking about the US. We're talking about the US as part of the globe. But were really one of the few bright spots in the economy. So the rest of the world not so hot. So what they have here. They have something called the expectations index. Slumping to its lowest level since early nine that was the end of the days of the great recession. They basically have these Ned Davis research, kind of has these ten proprietary indicators. And when five I think it's five or six of them turn negative than they say, it's a recession. Well, they just hit their fifth. And I think they said the six would I forgot what that was what the six they said is inevitable is gonna hit that area. And so they went ahead just declared it November fifteen we are in a recession. Now in the second hour. I'm actually going to spin that a little bit to a positive say really how can you spend that to to positive would hang on the second hour. We'll get to that. Because one piece of data associated with that tells us that perhaps we've seen the majority of the pullback connected to that information. I just gave very interesting. Now, let me talk a little bit about just the emotional makeup of the market, folks. This is what I find the most fascinating when I actually do research. I can look at the hard data. We are also subscribers to Ned Davis research. So we get their insights among a lot of other folks that we spend our own personal money on and look at their stuff, and then we come up with our own conclusions on it. But one of the things that I really enjoy outside of the hard data is just the personality of the market the emotional makeup of the average investor. And one of the telltale signs of a market that's hitting bottom after a major correction crash bear market. Whatever is that. The average investor is throwing in the towel can't take it anymore. Get me out. We saw it in early sixteen. We saw it during Brexit. We didn't get a chance to see it during the presidential election because that was all overnight stuff when the market was crashing when it opened it basically opened flat, and we just went off to the races. But we saw it at times. Earlier this year. So back in two thousand fifteen when the market was relatively flat. We did see some panic selling we saw it also in the consumer or rather investor sentiment. Polls. Befriends? This one's different. We're not seeing it as much. We haven't had that that panic selling. We haven't had a throwing in the towel mentality. At this point. That capitulation. You also get a lot of high downside volume. A lot of shares coming in. We've had these days as you know, when the market's fallen four or five hundred points, but it's been orderly. And one of the things that we look at is something called the Vicks and the vix is kind of a volatility index. Yeah, it's up and it's up rather significantly. But it hasn't spiked like we normally see when I can say, I think the markets about to hit bottom. We haven't seen that. So that's another reason why thank gosh. I just don't know that we've that were through with this thing yet. You can't be a hundred percent certain. But those are the kinds of things that I definitely look for. When I'm a little bit more ready than to say, I think we're through this which I have in the past. I don't think we're quite there yet or am looking ahead at some of the things that I want to get to. So all right folks will take another break here. We'll talk a little bit more about this kind of the bearish signs that I see. But once again, please don't go anywhere. We'll flip that on its head and talk about how we might change. Our minds potentially could change our minds with a few just small little tweaks here and there which we'll.

Ned Davis US OPEC Saudi Arabia Saint Louis Kurt producer Brexit Russia six months hundred percent million barrels three percent five percent
Buffett's Berkshire doubles profit, repurchases $900 million stock in third quarter

Bloomberg Businessweek

00:30 sec | 2 years ago

Buffett's Berkshire doubles profit, repurchases $900 million stock in third quarter

"Wall Street analysts were looking for AT and T's political action committee is pulling its support from Iowa Republican Steve king. It's the latest corporate down here to end to contributions to the congressman over his embrace of white nationalists and for rhetoric that has been denounced as racist. President Donald Trump's newfound zeal to resolve his trade war with China risks hitting some familiar obstacles. And that includes himself people familiar with the matters that he directed his cabinet to draft potential terms for a trade deal. He could agree to at the conference in Argentina later this month. But pessimism remains. Ned Davis research is turning bearish on global shares for the first time since two thousand nine the year. The bull market began the story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. Tim Hayes the firm's chief global investment strategist says investors should sell stocks and bonds because the equity decline is only halfway done. He cut the recommended allocation for stocks by five percentage points to fifty percent below the fifty five percent level the firm considers its normal allocation, he says investors should earmark forty percent of their money to bonds and ten percent to cash Charlie Pellett. Bloomberg radio. Global news twenty four hours a day on air and it ticked up on Twitter. Powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm Susanna Palmer. This is Bloomberg.

President Donald Trump Bloomberg Charlie Pellett Congressman AT Steve King Tim Hayes Susanna Palmer Ned Davis Iowa Twitter Argentina China Fifty Five Percent Twenty Four Hours Fifty Percent Forty Percent Ten Percent
"ned davis research" Discussed on 790 KABC

790 KABC

07:39 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on 790 KABC

"Online to money matters dot net. Stimulate. Diamonds are forever. And we are back. This is money matters with Ken moraif. And of course, I am your host Ken moraif. Thank you diamonds are indeed forever. I think they should be right. Hardest known substance isn't that? Right. But you know, what I think that financial planning ideas that help you to achieve your goals or even better than that. Because if you do it, right? I think it's possible that you could buy yourself a few diamonds here and there anyway, we are back. I am Ken moraif host of money matters with Ken moraif, and I've been a certified financial planner professional for the last twenty marvelous wonderful and very exciting years, and all of the ideas that we talk about on this show. These are the very same ideas that we talk about with our beloved and most value clients, and we are a firm that specializes in retirement planning. So we primarily work with people that are over the age of fifty who are retired or retiring soon. And we now work with over eight thousand four hundred families in forty three states, and we are honored and blessed by that and financial times named our financial advisory firm moneymatters, one of the top three hundred registered investment advisers. And this is now for the second time. And, you know, thank you Jack for that little Tiffany there. But you know, what without without our clients. We would be nowhere. So clients listening right now, and those of you who are not listening. We we adore our clients, and we are so grateful, and in fact, you know, I wanna share with you something and want to ask you, ladies and gentlemen. Over since October the eighth. May have noticed that the market has been very volatile. In fact. That first week October the eighth the Dow went down thirteen hundred points that we remember the eight hundred point drop day. And then it followed it up with more and more. And we it's been down pretty much every week since then and over the last three weeks the market has gone down quite a bit. And my question to you would be how much communication have you gotten from your financial advisor? Okay. Because I think when times are rough when it's getting scary out there. I think that's when we earn our keep we have two goals for our clients. One is for them to have financial peace of mind, and peace of mind, I believe comes from communication if you know what's going on. And you have confidence in what's going on. Then you have peace of mind, in my opinion. And so since October the eighth we have sent three videos, which I produced and we sent to our clients to talk about what we thought was going on. And what we're going to do about it and all of that with the purpose in mind for them. To have a direct contact with us via video where they can have peace of mind where we can set their mind at ease that we're on top of it. And we're watching things and they don't have to worry about it. Okay. I don't know if it worked it did. Hopefully it did. But also we've had three emails as well. I think it may actually be four where we talk about conditions situations our portfolios and all that kind of stuff with our clients. So over the last three weeks, we've had six, and I actually think it's seven I'm just reading from my notes here. But I think it's seven communications with our clients regarding the volatility in the market, and again, it's because our goal is to give our clients peace of mind and our second goal is for their money to last as long as they do. That's also important the peace of mind is important too. So I would ask you do you get that same sort of thing if you don't then maybe you should consider making a change. I don't know. And you can go to our website. If you want to learn more about us. It's money matters dot net. And when you're there, you can look through and see what you think and click on meet with an advisor if you'd like to do that. But let me ask you a question now because we are we primarily work with retirees and people who are going to retire soon. We are defensively minded when it comes to how we manage your money for you. Okay. So what I mean by that is that we believe that you have to preserve your principal to be able to provide you with the income to enjoy all the things that you want to do during your retirement, and we call your retirement your second childhood without parental supervision. Okay. So we want you to go play and have fun, and whatever that looks like to you. We want you to enjoy it to the hilt. But you know, what if you lose half your money in a bear market. It's going to be very difficult to do that. Right. You could lose the ability to do it. So let me ask you a question. The average bear market, according to Ned Davis research is a loss on the SNP. A thirty seven percent. Thirty seven percent is the average now back in two thousand eight it went down fifty seven percent and in two thousand. Thousand it went down forty nine percent. So those were bigger than normal the average the average is thirty seven. So the question I would ask you is this would you prefer to lose thirty seven percent of your money. If you had to obviously prefer not to. But if you had to lose it. That's not an option here. You're gonna lose thirty seven percent. Okay. So when would you rather do it when you're sixty or when you're seventy five now, interestingly, I've asked quite a few people that question and the answer they've given me is I would rather have it happen when I'm sixty because if I lose it when I'm sixty I've time to recover it. I've got time. But that's actually wrong. We've done studies where if you lost thirty seven percent, and you take an inflation-adjusted four percent out of your money. And as soon as percent return on the market. What would happen if you started when you're sixty and you lost a big chunk right off the bat you'd actually run out of money by the time, you're eighty however, if you if you lost that same amount when you were seventy five then it would take a while before your money runs out, and it last up into your nineties, and therefore guess what you probably won't run out of money. So the answer is you want the farther out you can put losing that money. If you have to lose it the farther out, you you push it, the better the earlier, you it happens the worst, and we talked about that in our in our second segment with the research on how market risk and affect your retirement. So the big point of that conversation. I just had is that the five years before you retire and the five years after you retire we consider that ten year period to be the most important period of your entire financial life. Okay. Because no matter how much money you've accumulated over the course of your lifetime. You spent thirty years. Doing it. If you lose fifty seven percent of it in the year before you retire. That's going to hurt persistent Bill Graham, I am Duke very persistent. Now, the other side of it is that if you retire and within that five years, you lose fifty seven percent like happened in in in two thousand eight or even thirty seven percent, which is the average then that also could significantly cause you to have financial difficulties and not to be able to enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision. So we believe that protect your principal. Having a buy hold and sell strategy is very important. And that's why our strategy told us to sell to get our clients out of the stock market to tell our clients to be out in November of two thousand seven and to stay out during the entire crash of two thousand eight. So here's what I want you to go to.

Ken moraif advisor principal moneymatters Jack Bill Graham Ned Davis Duke thirty seven percent fifty seven percent five years three weeks Thirty seven percent forty nine percent four percent thirty years ten year
"ned davis research" Discussed on 790 KABC

790 KABC

07:41 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on 790 KABC

"Twenty nine thousand nine Subaru assent is now bigger than ever. Stimulate. Diamonds are forever. And we are back. This is money matters with Ken moraif. And of course, I am your host Ken moraif. Thank you guys are indeed forever. I think they should be right. Hardest known substance isn't that? Right. But you know, what I think that financial planning ideas that help you to achieve your goals or even better than that. Because if you do it, right? I think it's possible that you could buy yourself a few diamonds here and there anyway, we are back. I am Ken moraif, the host of money matters with Ken moraif, and I've been a certified financial planner professional for the last twenty marvelous wonderful and very exciting years at all of the ideas that we talk about on this show. These are the very same ideas that we talk about with our beloved and most value clients, and we are a firm that specializes in retirement planning. So we primarily work with people that are over the age of fifty who are retired or retiring soon. And we now work with over eight thousand four hundred families in forty three states, and we are honored and blessed by that and financial times named our financial advisory firm moneymatters, one of the top three hundred registered investment advisers. And this is now for the second time. And thank you, Jack for that little Tiffany there. But you know, what without without our clients. We would be nowhere. So clients listening right now, and those of you who are not listening. We we adore our clients, and we are so grateful, and in fact, you know, I want to share with you something. And when to you, ladies and gentlemen. Over since October the eighth. May have noticed that the market has been very volatile. In fact. That first week October the eighth the Dow went down thirteen hundred points that we remember the eight hundred point drop day. And then it followed up with more and more. And we it's been down pretty much every week since then and over the last three weeks the market has gone down quite a bit. And my question to you would be how much communication have you gotten from your financial advisor? Okay. Because I think when times are rough when it's getting scary out there. I think that's when we earn our keep we have two goals for our clients. One is for them to have financial peace of mind, and peace of mind, I believe comes from communication if you know what's going on. And you have confidence in what's going on. Then you have peace of mind, in my opinion. And so since October the eighth we have sent three videos, which I produced and we sent to our clients to talk about what we thought was going on. And what we're gonna do about it and all of that with the purpose in mind for them. To have a direct contact with us. Via video where they can have peace of mind where we can set their mind at ease that we're on top of it. And we're watching things and they don't have to worry about it. Okay. I don't know if it worked. I think it did. Hopefully it did. But also we've had three emails as well. I think it may actually before where we talk about conditions situations our portfolios and all that kind of stuff with our clients. So over the last three weeks, we've had six, and I actually think it's seven I'm just reading from my notes here. But I think it's seven communications with our clients regarding the volatility in the market, and again, it's because our goal is to give our clients peace of mind and our second goal is for their money to last as long as they do. That's also important, but peace of mind is important too. So I would ask you do you get that same sort of thing if you don't then maybe you should consider making a change. I don't know. And you can go to our website. If you want to learn more about us. It's money matters dot net. And when you're there, you can look through and see what you think and click on meet with an advisor if you'd like to do that. But let me ask you a question now because we are we primarily work with retirees and people who are going to retire soon. We are defensively minded when it comes to how we manage your money for you. Okay. So what I mean by that is that we believe that you have to preserve your principal to be able to provide you with the income to enjoy all the things that you want to do during your retirement, and we call your retirement your second childhood without parental supervision. Okay. So we want you to go play and have fun, and whatever that looks like to you. We want you to enjoy it to the hilt. But you know, what if you lose half your money in a bear market. It's going to be very difficult to do that. Right. You could lose the ability to do it. So let me ask you a question. The average bear market, according to Ned Davis research is a loss on the SNP. A thirty seven percent. Thirty seven percent is the average now back in two thousand and eight and went down fifty seven percent and in two thousand. Thousand it went down forty nine percent. So those were bigger than normal the than average the average is thirty seven. So the question I would ask you is this would you prefer to lose thirty seven percent of your money. If you had to obviously prefer not to. But if you had to lose it. That's not an option here. You're going to lose thirty seven percent. Okay. So when would you rather do it when you're sixty or when you're seventy five now, interestingly, I've asked quite a few people that question and the answer they've given me is I would rather have it happen when I'm sixty because if I lose it when I'm sixty I've time to recover it. I've got time, but that's actually wrong. We've done studies where if you lost thirty seven percent, and you take an inflation-adjusted four percent out of your money. And you assume an eight percent return on the market. What would happen if you started when you're sixty and you lost a big chunk right off the bat you'd actually run out of money by the time, you're eighty however, if you if you lost that same amount when you were seventy five then it would take a while before your money runs out and last up into your nineties, therefore, guess what you probably won't run out of money. So the answer is you want the farther out you can put losing that money. If you have to lose it the farther. Out. You you push it the better the earlier, you it happens the worst. And we talked about that in our in our second segment with the research on went how market risk and affect your retirement. So the big point of that conversation. I just had is that the five years before you retire and the five years after you retire we consider that ten year period to be the most important period of your entire financial life. Okay. Because no matter how much money you've accumulated over the course of your lifetime. You spent thirty years doing it. If you lose fifty seven percent of it in the year before you retire. That's gonna hurt. Of your persistent guys pilgrim. I am Duke very persistent. Now, the other side of it is that if you retire and within that five years, you lose fifty seven percent like happened in y in in two thousand eight or even thirty seven percent, which is the average then that also could significantly 'cause you to half an annual difficulties and not to be able to enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision. So we believe that protecting your principal having a buy hold and sell strategy is very important. And that's why our strategy told us to sell to get our clients out of the stock market to tell our clients to be out in November of two thousand seven and to stay out during the entire crash of two thousand eight. So here's what I want you to go to.

Ken moraif advisor principal Subaru moneymatters Duke Jack Ned Davis thirty seven percent fifty seven percent five years three weeks Thirty seven percent forty nine percent eight percent four percent thirty years ten year
"ned davis research" Discussed on 710 WOR

710 WOR

01:59 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on 710 WOR

"Of this report I actually tasked Ned Davis research with doing this couple years ago and and they're connected somehow to this report I think but six stocks are king, of the hill if we take Amazon Netflix Microsoft apple Google and. Facebook Out of it these, stocks, account, for, ninety, eight percent Of the s&p five hundred's return So I think the fed is seeing That this economy is shaky and. They are trying to, enhance their toolbox so think about this the, top three stocks as of July tenth this. From Jake Weber analyst at Maldon economics However okay the FANG leadership plus Microsoft is not a new one however the impact from a. Handful of stocks seems, to be getting more prominent this usually doesn't, end well so if you think about it Three stocks account. For over seventy percent of the twenty eighteen, return on the s. and p. and the. NASDAQ one hundred five percent of. The NASDAQ's return and, ninety eight percent? Of the return was due to six stocks so. If you didn't own, those six talks you didn't really have much gains this year you could be flat to negative so. Are, I, mean what is prompting the economy up is not the. Tax, reform act it's not the south the interest rates and the fed raising. Interest rates of anything that. Stone cold water on the economy It's these six stocks that are the king of the hill What do you think about that. Folks, give us a, call eight hundred three to one zero seven.

fed Ned Davis Facebook Jake Weber Microsoft FANG Google Amazon analyst one hundred five percent ninety eight percent seventy percent eight percent
"ned davis research" Discussed on KSFO-AM

KSFO-AM

03:34 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KSFO-AM

"Half years and that's according to ned davis research how long do the last again on average the smaller ones the the market fully recovers its value with an average of ten months and that's according to as odd asset management the average bear market lasts fifteen months with stocks declining thirty seven percent on average thirty seven percent on average the most recent bear market we had in two thousand and eight and when the market went down and p went down fifty seven percent which is larger than the average white uk of course was down forty nine percent so again larger and is a function of technology this exponential growth growth that we've all encountered because things are moving quicker than ever before ever mation is being disseminated quicker people panic more often but again like i said thirty seven percent is the average you don't want to take that type of beating and there i know when the market was off ten percent from its high when we evaluated our portfolios we're only down one point eight percent so again it comes back to that secret sauce what percentage of what you're buying early matters again it's at disciplined unemotional approach to investing is the key to all of this but when it comes to bear markets and this is where it gets a little dicey of what sets bear markets off generally speaking to things will do it the market gets too high the irrational exuberance the market runs in separates itself from fundamentals to a point where it doesn't make sense anymore that's why you'll hear people talking heads we talking about pe ratio but that's only one part of of an understanding of it oftentimes p e mart a pe ratios will be associated with value investing but what type of investor are you y two k was an example of were technology stocks rose two thousand percent but they they weren't profitable so there's no reason for it so that's why we had that correction in the marketplace then eventually fundamental win one could argue is at valuers growth which is a better way of going values had a horrible ten year run no different than this story from two thousand and two thousand ten were lost one percent over that entire decade you lost money if you just invested that one asset class eventually fundamentals will will win market recalibrate itself and then you're going to be in a more normal market again right now we're experiencing growth across the board whether it's in real estate stock market interest rates have have become more normal and where they were before but it's it's it's important to understand where you're at and what is your approach of late i've seen articles on how people are just quitting jobs because they could find other jobs unemployment is low people are emotion but what happens if if you're you're playing this game of musical chairs and all of a sudden there isn't an opportunity for you and you quit your job the market corrects itself what is your what is your exit strategy what if you need six months before you find a job or two years before.

ned davis thirty seven percent two thousand percent fifty seven percent forty nine percent fifteen months eight percent one percent ten percent six months ten months two years ten year two k
"ned davis research" Discussed on KSFO-AM

KSFO-AM

02:49 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KSFO-AM

"And you need understand your enemy the definition of a bear market is that it's a decline of at least twenty percent from the previous peak a correction like what we had back in february as as more when stocks fall ten percent but not twenty percent so more than ten less than twenty how often do we have bear markets for nine thousand nine hundred till today we've had one hundred twenty four corrections which is again over ten but less than twenty we've had one hundred twenty four those about one a year we've had thirty three bear markets and that's one every three and a half years according to ned davis research how long do they last well the average correction again smaller ones the market fully recovered its value with an average of ten in months and that's according to assad asset management the average bear market last fifteen months with stocks declining on average thirty seven percent that's thirty seven percent so am i example earlier two years ago if you had a million dollars in you now have two million dollars and you lost forty percent of that what is that number roughly eight hundred thousand you've gone from two million back down to one point two million how's that gonna make you feel if that's if that's your number the most recent bear market we had in two thousand eight that market went down the s and p five hundred went down fifty seven percents so is bigger larger than normal one though the y2k of course was a forty nine percent or so that was bigger than normal you see a pattern here the average like i said is thirty seven percent but certainly you wouldn't even wanna take a thirty seven percent to two million dollars down to one point two million or that would that would be a little bit of now it'd be disturbing now wouldn't it even even even thirty seven percent as large so what's really sets off a bear market if we stop and think about what's going on economic and are you really paying attention to what's going on so do you so for you do it yourself out there what are the triggers that you're gonna pull one what happens so that you're going to protect your money and hopefully if you have a financial visor they have a strategy we have a strategy odonnellfinancialgroup but what is your financial advisor strategy.

ned davis assad advisor thirty seven percent two million dollars twenty percent forty nine percent million dollars fifteen months forty percent ten percent two years
"ned davis research" Discussed on KGO 810

KGO 810

02:56 min | 2 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KGO 810

"We could argue i could argue i could suggest that the bear market is your enemy and you need understand your enemy the definition of a bear market is that it's a decline of at least twenty percent from the previous peak a correction like what we had back in february is is more when stocks fall ten percent but not twenty percent so more than ten less than twenty how often do we have bear markets for nine thousand nine hundred till today we've had one hundred and twenty four corrections which is again over ten but less than twenty we've had one hundred twenty four those about one a year we've had thirty three bear markets and that's one every three and a half years according to ned davis research how long do they last well the average correction again the smaller ones the market fully recovered its value with an average of ten months and that's according to assad asset management the average bear market last fifteen months with stocks declining on average thirty seven percent thirty seven percent so am i example earlier two years ago if you had a million dollars in now have two million dollars and you lost forty percent of that what is that number roughly eight hundred thousand you've gone from two million back down to one point two million how's that gonna make you feel if that's if that's your number in the the most recent bear market we had in two thousand eight that market went down s and p five hundred went down fifty seven percents so is bigger larger than normal one though the y2k of course was a forty nine percent her so that was bigger than normal you see a pattern here the average like i said is thirty seven percent but certainly you wouldn't even wanna take a thirty seven percent to two million dollars down to one point two million oh that would that would be a little bit of now it'd be disturbing now wouldn't it even even even thirty seven percent as large so what really sets off a bear market if we stop and think about what's going on economic do it yourself out there what are the triggers that you're gonna pull when what happens so that you're going to protect your money and hopefully if you have a financial advisor they have a strategy we have a strategy owed odonnellfinancialgroup but what is your financial advisor strategy.

ned davis advisor assad thirty seven percent two million dollars twenty percent forty nine percent million dollars fifteen months forty percent ten percent ten months two years
"ned davis research" Discussed on 710 WOR

710 WOR

01:38 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on 710 WOR

"The middle class in the poor that often cannot move they are not as mobile so there's a lot going on here like rate cycles past the feds higher interest rate game plan will drive us right into a recession what john mauldin called the great reset debts the problem and rising interest rates are the trigger we will keep a close eye on the recession watch indicators which the indicators say we're not necessarily in a recession right now we if you look at the global recession probability model there's only fifty seven percent probability of recession which is rather low i mean if you go back to oh eight or some of these other signals they were up to one hundred percent so you know and they're not always correct by the way the the last time the global recession monitor was near ninety percent was somewhere around two thousand sixteen so there's a lot of concern here so we're right in between the middle range of a probability this is from ned davis research and the e c d a global recession probability model so there's a lot of other stuff going on here so give us a call eight eight eight nine at a josh if you want the free book when you schedule and keep your noobligation review and call us now if you have a financial question for us eight hundred three to one zero seven eight hundred three.

john mauldin ned davis research josh fifty seven percent one hundred percent ninety percent
"ned davis research" Discussed on KGO 810

KGO 810

01:45 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KGO 810

"The realities of old age we can talk about all that or we can talk about bm's that's right bear markets or one of the most important things you need to be aware of so why don't we get into bear markets what is bear market definition of a bear market is that it's a decline of at least twenty percent from the previous peak like we had a few weeks back is when sox fell ten percent but not twenty percent so more than ten but less than twenty is a correction how often do we have bear markets for from nineteen hundred until today we have had to have had a hundred and twenty four corrections which again is over ten percent but less than twenty percent drop in the markets we've had a hundred and twenty four of those about one a year we've had thirty three bear markets which means every three and a half years according to ned davis research how long do they last well the average correction again the smaller ones the market fully recovered its value with an average of ten months and that's according to zahed asset management the average bear market last fifteen months with stocks declining thirty seven percent on average that's thirty seven percent on average the most recent bearer we had in two thousand eight that went down the sp went down fifty seven percents so that was a larger one than our normal one earn average one y two k of course it was a forty nine percent or a so that was larger than normal the average like you said is thirty seven percent so you don't wanna take that kind of beating.

sox ned davis thirty seven percent twenty percent ten percent forty nine percent fifteen months ten months two k
"ned davis research" Discussed on KSFO-AM

KSFO-AM

01:52 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KSFO-AM

"The realities of age we can talk about all that or we could talk about bm's a trait bear markets or one of the most important things you need to be aware of so why don't we get into the bear markets what is a bear market definition of a bear market is that it's a decline of at least twenty percent from the previous peak a correction like we had a few weeks back because when stocks fell ten percent but not twenty percent so so more than ten but less than twenty is a correction how often do we have bear markets for from one thousand nine hundred till today we have had to have had a hundred and twenty four corrections which again is over ten percent but less than twenty percent drop in the markets we've had a twenty one hundred twenty four those about one a year we've had thirty three bear markets which means every three and a half years according to ned davis research how long do they last well the average correction again the smaller ones the market fully recovered its value with an average of ten months and that's according to his odd asset management the average bear market last fifteen months with stocks declining thirty seven percent on average that's thirty seven percent on average the most recent bearer we had in two thousand eight that went down the sp went down fifty seven percents so that was a larger ones than our normal one earn average one y two k of course it was a forty nine percent or so that was larger than normal the average like you said is thirty seven percent so you don't wanna take that kind of beating i don't think even with a thirty seven percent down that's gonna that's gonna hurt again won.

ned davis thirty seven percent twenty percent ten percent forty nine percent fifteen months ten months two k
"ned davis research" Discussed on Money For the Rest of Us

Money For the Rest of Us

02:29 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on Money For the Rest of Us

"Yes this might work and it makes intuitive sense but to starting conditions are so low in terms of the yield for bonds particularly for tips right now that i i would have a hard time implementing it i think it would be hard for an investor to have such a high allocation to commodities commodities over the past five years dc has returned negative seven point eight percent annualized over the last five years seven point seven percent annualise for the ten years it's a very long period of experiencing bad times for commodities because we've been in commodities bear market and commodity is bear markets tend to last twenty years some data from ned davis research shows that the average commodity bear market is twenty years long with an average loss of fifty point nine percent the current bear market started in twenty eleven commodities of loss cumulatively thirty seven percent per only seven years in now maybe it won't be a twenty year commodity bear market but long long time commodity bull markets tend to last about sixteen years in the average gain is two hundred and seventeen percent the commodity bull market went from nine hundred ninety nine to twenty eleven commodities were up two hundred seventy percent and i have a love hate relationship with commodities because the excess return is so low and they're so volatile and they don't get any income to sort of mitigate some of that volatility but he is correct when you look at the data from ned davis research when the cpi consumer price index is over five percents so inflation is high and inflation is increasing commodities as represented by the snp gsi index every turn eighteen percent per year.

ned davis ned davis research twenty years five years two hundred seventy percent thirty seven percent seventeen percent eighteen percent eight percent seven percent sixteen years nine percent seven years twenty year ten years
"ned davis research" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

KTAR 92.3FM

01:43 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

"You know if the cost of living is going up faster than your investments that supported are are growing then you'll have to cut back at some point you know it could cause some damage they're also if you have if your taxes are out of control that could cause you damage so that's the second and the third which i actually think is the worst enemy of all of them is bear markets and if you go back in history and this is according to ned davis research and you look at the average bear market is a drop of thirty seven percent okay that's the average now the last two the one in y two k and the one in two thousand eight we're over it we're we're around fifty percent okay so those were bigger than normal but they seem to be you know these these ones that have a large gap between them tend to be the ones that have the largest false and the last bear market was two thousand eight right so it was ten years ago now so that's a big gap and the amount of debt we've accumulated and all that money out there that's been borrowed a zero percent interest rates is going to have to be repaid soon that i think is creating a huge issue hugh now it's talking to a gentleman and he was telling me that he bought and held through y two k through two thousand and eight and he said you know what can he says i am back to where i was in y two k he said i just got back there in january and darn it if the market goes down after january and i'm back behind the eight ball again and i said wait a minute eighteen years what do you mean you mean y two k he goes yeah he says in y two k i had one point eight million dollars and he said my adviser you know and all the tech stocks and all that i lost he said he turned one point eight.

ned davis hugh two k eight million dollars thirty seven percent eighteen years fifty percent zero percent ten years
"ned davis research" Discussed on KFI AM 640

KFI AM 640

01:43 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KFI AM 640

"You know if the cost of living is going up faster than your investments that supported our are growing then you'll have to cut back at some point you know it could cause some damage they're also if you have if your taxes are out of control that could cause you damage so that's the second and the third which i actually think is the worst enemy of all of them is bear markets and if you go back in history and this is according to ned davis research and you look at the average bear market is a drop of thirty seven percent okay that's the average now the last two the one in y two k one and two thousand eight we're over it we're we're around fifty percent okay so those were bigger than normal but they seem to be you know these these ones that have a large gap between them tend to be the ones that have the largest falls and the last bear market was two thousand eight right so it was ten years ago now so that's a big gap and the amount of debt we've accumulated and all that money out there that's been borrowed a zero percent interest rates is going to have to be repaid soon that i think is creating a huge issue now is talking to a gentleman and he was telling me that he bought and held through y two k through two thousand and eight and he said you know what can he says i am back to where i was in y two k he said i just got back there in january and darn it if the market goes down after january and i'm back behind the eight ball again and i said wait a minute eighteen years what do you mean you mean y two k he goes yeah he says in y two k i had one point eight million dollars and he said my adviser you know and all the tech stocks and all that i lost he said he turned one point eight.

ned davis two k eight million dollars thirty seven percent eighteen years fifty percent zero percent ten years
"ned davis research" Discussed on KTRH

KTRH

02:02 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KTRH

"Is there that we are i want to tell you something else and this is according to ned davis research we have a correction every we have one and a half corrections in a bull market every year okay so that means and a correction is a drop in the in the stock market of more than ten percent but less than twenty because if it gets over 20 than that's a bear market so it's a it's a tended 10 to 20 percent drop in the market usually they last about two months and then they recover and everybody forgets about him but they're scariest hack when they're happening and we haven't had a correction in two years we should have had three already we haven't had any and now we're seeing the market going up three hundred points and you know it then it's up a hundred and sixty and it's up another three hundred it's like it's dizzying in fact i'm calling it scary good bouquet this stock market is scary good so what is that all meat it means that in a normal situation an average bull market year we should expect at least one correction therefore i think we are going to have at least one correction this year and what that means is that the the s p the dow could fall by ten fifteen percent this year now what does that mean it means don't panic okay i don't think you should panic if it happens at why because tax reform all the stimulus in the system i don't see a recession in the forecast for this year and normally what causes bear markets is recessions and recessions i don't see happening this year so therefore if we do get a drop in the market i see that as being a correction and one that may actually represent a buying opportunity okay so i'm just kind of giving you a little heads up that expect a correction and then don't panic when it happens look at it as a buying opportunity okay and of course keep listening to the show because when we do get that a correction which eventually i think we will i'll be telling you what i think we should do and keeping a steady hand at the helm all right now i want to tell you that if you are over fifty if you are retired or you are retiring soon then we want you as.

stock market ned davis ten fifteen percent ten percent 20 percent two months two years
"ned davis research" Discussed on KFI AM 640

KFI AM 640

02:01 min | 3 years ago

"ned davis research" Discussed on KFI AM 640

"Out of the stock market for all of two thousand an aid and we didn't get our by signal until june of two thousand nine so for a a year and a half we're counselling as many people as we could stay out of the stock market yeah well i think so and those of you who followed my advice you were out of the market and you didn't experience those stock market losses so i think bear markets are are one of the most important things you need to deal with so how you have to know that an enemy so let's talk about a what is a bear market okay so the definition of a bear market is that it's a decline of at least twenty percent from the previous peak okay a correction is when stocks fall ten percent but not twenty so more than ten but less than twenty now how often do we have bear market swell from 1912 today we have had a hundred in 2003 corrections which is a ten over ten but less than twenty percent drop in the markets we've had one hundred twenty three of those about one a year and we'd had 33 bear markets that's one every three and a half years according to ned davis research okay now how long do they last well the average correction again which is the smaller ones the market fully recovered his value within an average of ten months and this is according to as bad asset management the average bear market last fifteen months with stocks declining thirty seven percent on average thirty seven percent on average the most recent bear market we had in two thousand eight that market went down the sp 500 went down fifty seven percent so that was that was a bigger than normal one and why to k of course was a forty nine percent or so is bigger than normal the average as i said is thirty seven percent so you don't want to take that kind of a beating i don't think even an average thirty seven is will hurt now what sets off bear markets there are two things that do that one is when the market gets too high he of irrational exuberance the market runs.

stock market ned davis thirty seven percent twenty percent fifty seven percent forty nine percent fifteen months ten percent ten months