20 Burst results for "Nber"
"nber" Discussed on Simply Bitcoin
"But in the meantime, you might miss out on a pretty face ripping bullish run in equities and especially in Bitcoin. Does that mean that Bitcoin bottomed? Do you believe that we hit the bottom? At this point, I do, yes. In fact, and just so you guys know, I made a bet with Anders of toxic happy hour. I said that it hadn't bottomed yet. This was, I think, in December or maybe early January before I had pivoted. I said it hadn't bottomed yet. He says it had. I think I'm going to lose that bet, and I'm going to owe Anders a beer at Bitcoin Miami in May. And I hope to see you there as well. Doctor Ross. So interesting, very interesting. So what would it take in specifically in your indicators and what you're looking at? What would it take for you to change your mind? Because I'm hearing also, I think it was a coin coin telegraph article I think it was Lynn that was mentioned in it where she was making the case that, hey, hold on to your horses. And she referred to the 2023 recessionary environment and how that was going to be terrible for what the market views as risk on assets. What are your thoughts on that? Well, first of all, it confuses a lot of people because what people sometimes fail to realize is that the markets are different than the economy. So the economy may be tipping into a recession, but the markets respond differently. They usually front run it actually. And so I would say that throughout 2022, the equity markets and Bitcoin were seeing what was coming. They were seeing the writing on the wall that the economy was slowing. We were heading into contraction mode for manufacturing and then now services, housing, rolled over all that kind of stuff. So those are two different things. So they can be on two completely different schedules, although they're sort of related over time, but they just sort of feed off of each other a little bit differently in the markets always look ahead. I would say that a recession is definitely coming. It may actually already be here. We don't know until the NBER blesses it and says that we are officially in a recession. So who knows? We find out from them later what the answer is. Which is kind of funny. I don't really care about that. I care about what are the markets doing and what is price action doing. And again, so even if the economy looks like it's getting weak and I think it is, I mean, earnings recessions look terrible. They're layoffs are starting to increase. It's hitting big tech the hardest, obviously, but it's starting to spread out further into other parts of the economy where layoffs are starting to happen. So we should start to see unemployment numbers start to rise. All of that stuff still is ahead of us somewhere. But again, to my point, unless there is some sort of major event like a credit event, it's unlikely that the fed will be forced to pivot and start lowering rates. And until they do that, it's most likely that risk assets will continue to catch a bid and Bitcoin, which is not a risk asset. But it does catch a bid with alongside of other risk assets. Bitcoin is the great absorber of liquidity. So as long as liquidity is expanding and all these metrics are pointing upwards, Bitcoin should do pretty well. What will I watch? I'll watch all the things that I just mentioned.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Late 90s, early 2000s. So you don't think we're in any sort of situation or scenario or on the precipice of any scenario that is. That could be that bad Lorraine. No, I think when we look at what the NBER looks at as far as a recession is concerned, we see some softening most definitely, but the only area that's negative year over year is industrial production. So while we do see and we look at the leading economic indicators are negative. So we have to know that a recession is probable, but it's not here yet. And I would say to investors that remember that the market goes ahead of a recession. So most likely a recession in 2023, but the market will be ahead of that and we think that we still have optimism in 2023 as far as the markets are concerned. Talk a little bit more about that forward outlook because I've talked to a few people who basically said the recession, that's basically yesterday's story, whether it happens or not, the sort of immaterial because it was already priced in. And now everyone sort of looking past 2023 or at least past the first half of the year. And maybe even deeper into 2024, let's assume we get to that without a major recession, or at least anything that really sort of just drives us off the cliff. What does sort of the new normal look like on the back end of that? What is investable? Right. Well, we still like value. Most definitely overgrowth. And sentiment would concur with that as well. So I'd say to investors to be leaning towards value stocks, they're paying dividends. That's good. And then also looking at international again. When we look at the dollar kind of rolling over now, we see opportunities, both developed markets as well as emerging markets. And especially emerging markets, as we now see, it looks like China is reopening. And of course, we want to wait and see if that's more permanent or not. But we do see opportunities in emerging markets. How do you determine if China is really reopened permanently? I think we have to wait and see most definitely. And then now with the news about the U.S. and letting people in with COVID tests. So all of that has put a negative slant, but the positive side of it is China does in fact reopen the consumer will have more of an ability to spend. Okay. Well, if the consumer has more of an ability to spend, obviously, a good thing. But concerns about what the Federal Reserve does in 2023 in response to what you're saying. I mean, what do you anticipate the fed is going to do? I think we still have more rates to come, at least one, perhaps two. 25, 50 basis points. What are you thinking? I think 25. I mean, we'll see in February is 25. I think it's going to be 25. It'll be 25, two 50. But I think the fed at this point is seeing that slowdown. When we look at inflation expectations going forward, they've come way
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And the market will take that in a favorable view. But I don't think that they have the room to actually cut. I think that's more of a 2024 story. Megan, if we could price down and yield up and whatever the first and second derivatives are of that action, what does it do? How does it redound upon the American economy? Unfortunately, just from the economic standpoint, housing is going to remain weak. Consumers are going to really start to feel the pinch of the higher interest rates next year. I think you've seen a lot of resiliency in the consumer. But when you start to see credit card rates where they are, auto loan rates where they are. And this is going to cause a significant slowdown in spending on the consumer side and possibly even on the business side. So I think you'll get that pullback from the economic standpoint in the first half of next year. I look at the you mentioned the credit card numbers and well. And I guess it comes down to just retail spending in that. I mean, link in your Bond call into what it means for the tangible consumer because a lot of people are telling us solid stable buoyant consumer. You're pushing against that, aren't you? Yeah, I think if you look at the consumer spending, how are they spending? They're using credit card debt. And we're seeing that grow on a double digit pace over a year over year basis. That is not sustainable. In an environment where you're also seeing those credit card rates increase. It can't be sustainable into next year. I think when just the consumer, if you look at confidence as well, that's also been a big disconnect. Consumer confidence has been very weak for very long. Typically has some correlation with spending and we haven't seen that yet. So I'm making you think inflation could be sticky that the mission won't be completed next year for the fed, the fed fund stays elevated, growth, gets a little bit softer. I know where you are on treasury yields higher. Where are you on risk assets? So I think right now going into 2020 of three, it doesn't hurt to actually maybe get a little cash back into the portfolio. Maybe reduce overall risk in the portfolio from the risk asset side from equities. But have that dry powder ready to go because when that fed does suggest that they're done. And I do think that they're going to be able to suggest that they're done in the first half of next year, not saying they're going to be able to cut rates, but they can say they can stop where they are. That's going to lead up to what could be a really nice rally in the second half of next year. You're not alone on that one. So I'm the first half second half split that I keep hearing about. Megan, thank you, Megan, hold on there, Vernon's capital advisers. This goes back to that sufficiently restrictive question of the last week or so. The ECB president Christina Gardner, what do you think sufficiently restrictive is? I have no idea. How far away from it? How do they know? We are, I'm going to say the financial media is at fault here. Why's that? Visible, we're out there. Everybody's watching. We know that. Thank you for watching and listening every day, but you know what, John, it's about just over analyzing gaming short term and I just, I have too much respect for what I don't know to game out where inflation is January 12th or February, whatever it is. I haven't looked at the data. You know the lesson of the last two years. Are you getting embarrassed every time you make a forecast? Yeah, you do it. And we take great respect. I mean, ling is going to be on here. Trophy taking, for institutional investor, his value every day to his clients at BMO capital markets. But I'm sorry, John, even for a guy as smart as lingan, this is brutal guessing. A Bank of America have got a nice note out. Please. How to talk to your family about the economy over the holidays. It's a list of questions. They give you the short answer in the long answer. They say, are we in a recession? Didn't we have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth this year? I imagine this would get very political very quickly around the dinner table. Short answer is not yet. Do you want the longer answer? They give you the NBER. Technical definition of what I actual session is. Is that what people are going to talk about around the Christmas table? I get yelled at holidays. Oh, you talk about recession. The definitions up. One day I brought the FT to the Thanksgiving table and that got that didn't go over well, you know? Over. Yeah, I had to finish a brilliant article. And I had to finish reading it. I looked you out at the recession discussion at the table and they'll go the recession. And they go, yeah, we're pulling back. Let's lighten up them, bottega venata, and that's a very cool idiosyncratic. It might be unique to you. But I think it goes to retail sales as we were talking to Megan about it. I mean, it's a mystery. It's remember 6 months ago. Christmas is gonna be terrible. We're all gonna die. Is it? I remember omicron was 12 months ago. Yeah. On my chrome. And now in China, we talked about it on that number. 211,000 jobless claims. That's the one that people struggle to explain. And chairman Powell said there's the number. He said that. Coming up from BMO capital markets. That's next
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Week. Even though it's sort of a dead heat in terms of what the polls say. We still could have 53 Republicans. We could still have 52 Democrats, 53 Democrats even. Jonathan Bernstein, on the midterms and the final furlong. And later, Stephen M on what political scientists have discovered about the correlation between midterm voting patterns and economic conditions. But first we still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected. The fed chair Jerome Powell there, Bloomberg opinions, Jonathan Levin joins to discuss a possible fed tilts this week. Jonathan two of the statements that jumped out to most analysts were the fact that the chair sings the path to a soft landing is narrowing, and that the terminal rate may be higher than we previously thought. Well, I think it's a done deal. It will be higher than we previously thought. I think post task here was to thread the needle. He needed to prepare markets for the fact that he was going to slow the pace of rate increases, potentially at the next meeting in December, but almost certainly by the time the first meeting rolls around in 2023 without letting financial conditions loosen. And so the key to all of that was a stroke of communications genius. He did that at the same time that he said that we are probably taking the terminal rate higher. Maybe we're talking about 5%, 5 and a quarter percent instead of four 75. But as a tool for communicating, I really thought that it was a stroke of genius pairing the higher endpoint with the ratcheting down of the pace. Well, it's redundant to point this out, but we'll have November December and January data before the January 31st, February 1st, meeting. Will that data be enough to show activity reacting to the fed's increases? Possibly. So I think the fed's reaction function at this point becomes a combination of things. They have left some room in the language where they say we are conscious of the long and variable lags, but we are also reacting to the data as it comes in. So that allows them to say a higher inflation print, for instance, does not automatically lock in 75 basis points. And vice versa, a lower inflation print should not lead the market to interpret this idea that maybe they're going to do nothing or they'll immediately switch to 25 basis points. So what would happen in that scenario if the NBER came out somewhere in all of this and said the economy is in recession. It seems like Jay Powell is preparing us for this idea that they're going to keep pushing ahead. I thought it was interesting. He talked again about how they think about risk management. And he sounded much more concerned about this idea that they may take their foot off the brakes of the economy here and then inflation shoots back up and then you're in a bad position in inflation expectations may have become unanchored at that point and it becomes a lot more difficult to get inflation back where it needs to be. On the other hand, he said we have the tools to address a market downturn. If we go there, he seems to be suggesting that his tools work a lot better for an overshoot on the upside with the policy rate than an undershoot that is doing too little. Well, he acknowledged the fed could be done with hikes before inflation hits 2%. What data points do you think would allow them the leeway to be done? I think a key thing Nick Timur was over at The Wall Street Journal brought this. So a very simple way to think about Taylor rules is just is the policy rate above some forward looking measure of inflation expectations. So when you see the policy rate sort of comfortably above where we think inflation is heading, then the fed will probably think that it has the dial set just to run. How concerning was that the fed chair thinks the path to a soft landing is narrowing? Yeah, I mean, you got to think that that's just an acknowledgment of reality, right? So the median expectation among economists surveyed by Bloomberg is that there's something like a 60% chance that the economy goes into a recession in the next 12 months. I think that economists generally get slack for their miss rate and predicting recessions, but I'd like to remind people there are usually wrong insofar as they fail to predict recessions. They very, very rarely call a recession that does not occur. Oh, chilling, Jonathan chilling. The sufficiently restrictive are we definitely talking about something with a 5 handle now? Yes, I think that's clearly the case. And I think that that's pretty consistent with the framework that we talked about earlier whereby in a very base understanding of how Taylor rules work. You want to see the policy rate above inflation. I think slightly more elegant way of thinking about the same thing is to say, again, not where is inflation right now, but where is inflation heading and are you going to see that policy rate cross that path of inflation at some point? That's obviously moving target, but the fed is hoping to hit it. It was interesting to see the market reaction because clearly not everything the fed chair said was priced in. We did see a subtle inequities. We also saw yields on the two year rising, what are the market not priced in? For the two year, it's fairly understandable, right? We're now pricing in something perhaps a lot closer to 5%, maybe 5 and a quarter, maybe even a little higher than there. But it's not a huge change in expectations. On the other hand, I think it's really hard to make the argument that stocks were well priced heading into this. I think a lot of people could have made a reasonable argument that bonds were maybe not cheap but fairly priced. Stocks, on the other hand, I mean, man, you've really seen equity risk premiums come in quite a bit in this little rally recently. And as we get past earnings season, which in sort of a strange way has been a little bit of a tailwind for equity, it really seems like you're going to see some of that deflate again. You've actually written about the path to a soft landing running through earnings, so I guess you have that to look forward to. Yeah. Yes, indeed. So the point of my recent column is that C suite executives seem to be doing a rather elegant job. Not unlike J pal himself in slowly slowly guiding expectations down into a sort of recessionary mine frame. And in a sense, if you're Jay Powell, that's exactly what you want to see. You're really, really trying to avoid this cascade of negative sentiment that could itself catalyze a recession in this environment. You want to see asset prices slowly come down, but you really want to avoid that financial accident. Bloomberg opinions Jonathan Levin. Stay tuned, Jonathan Bernstein next on what to consider pre
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Anne Marie, thank you. We basically heard that from months ago of BlackRock on this program in the shower, what 15 minutes ago, Tom? It basically said the same thing about next year. The recession is already begged in. That's what you're going to get. Or at least a slowdown. Do we need a recession? I mean, I've always been in the camp John if you have 1% GDP that's not good enough for a huge body of Americans. I don't need an NBER recession. What I have here is doctor bovan mentioned, is a massively restrictive set of central banks guessing into an economic slowdown. This is their goal to engineer the slowdown. Isn't that the problem? Politically speaking to Lisa's question. But the price is to death. I mean, the Columbia yesterday, I'm looking at the ten year United Kingdom piece here now, and it's basically, it's basically back 13 years. I mean, it's a whole Disney. It's a whole new world. And they said there's been some big losses in this market to pick up on the Disney and the fairytales. It's been Addison one that markets for a long long time. And we're trying to step back from that and it comes with paint. Well, and this is to your point, Tom, you said that there's so much pain in the bond market. And yet Jean-Paul is not buying treasuries yet. He sees yields going even higher because we still have this inflation. We're just 5%. Yes, in Citigroup to Andrew Holland harsh, just put this out, saying that home price data is going to show you do see a decline in housing prices, but the wage data that we get on Friday could show upward pressure on inflation from wages, indicating that wage spiral. So this is the sort of push pull of where we are in inflation right now. But can you make the argument that we've priced in the bulk of the rate hiking cycle? If you look at pricing of 5%, then I guess you can probably make that argument. Can you make the argument with price in the consequences of that rate how you can cycle? Tom, I don't think anyone's making that argument right now. We're also going to do a lot of recession and analysis while we're talking. Nowhere else. Nowhere else. You're the only 7 standard deviation. That's possible. And UK yield. You just ignore your colleagues. I do ignore him. Rishi sunak has a 6 standard deviation ten year. He told him that. I told him. Not completing high school is more of a social thing than it was an academic thing. I came out in the 11th grade. Nobody was embracing you. Kids were cruel. It was very difficult to be gay. Even though all these years have passed, I still had that longing to have my diploma. The hard part was determining that I was going to do it. But I definitely didn't do it alone. At age 30, with the help of her mentor, Carissa finished her high school diploma. I have a mentor, Maria. She convinced me to continue my education and finish what I started to get my
Newsradio 970 WFLA
"nber" Discussed on Newsradio 970 WFLA
"Now, we've entered a recession. Technically we are in a recession. Right now it seems that it also depends on who you ask as to whether it's a software session, if it's a deep recession that we're heading into. A lot of different opinions on the economic front these days, but technically, if you look at the two quarters, we are in a technical recession. Now, politicians, they're split along party lines, the president, the treasury secretary, the fed chairman, say the answer is no, we're not in a recession, but are they being honest? Are they just locked into that answer because they're trying to avoid any negative political consequences, the midterm elections are coming up? Now, economists again are split. Now because if this is a recession and there's plenty of evidence pointing that it is a recession from a technical standpoint, then it is a little bit different of a recession, at least early on here. We just don't see recessions when the economy continues to add hundreds of thousands of jobs every month. You know, that's just not the way typically recessions have worked historically. A lot of the alignment has nothing to do with economics, but everything to do with semantics. But one thing is inevitable. Negative economic factors are conspiring in an attempt to derail your retirement plans. And for many retirees, the biggest challenges are investment volatility that accompanies a recession. And for those who haven't retired yet, the biggest worry tends to be losing your job. But if you know what to expect in a recession, again we're just entering one technically, is it soft? Is it a hard recession, the things get deep? I mean, all this remains to be seen here. But what should you expect in recession? If you know what to expect, you'll know how to survive. So let's go ahead and take a look at what recessions are and how you should handle them. Stabilize it. Let's start with the basics of what a recession is. So I heard you really clear I'm the only thing I can think about is an honest politician. That's called an oxymoron. Like jumbo shrimp. And honest politician, that is also an oxymoron. But I'm listening very carefully and it's so well said, and all I could think about wow, an honest politician. So most retirees have lived through several recession, and it's known not terribly pleasant phenomenon for them, but typically you'll see a recession describe as, and I'm going to say it very slowly, two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Period. Right. Not what Joe Biden is saying and I'm going to say it, not what Joe Biden is saying on economic progress. It's far from it. Yeah, I mean, why do we have descriptions of things? I mean, can you say a stop sign is something that occasionally you should stop at? Are we going to rewrite the definition of everything now? The bottom line is we know the recession is in session. Call it a soft recession. Call it a hard recession. What have you, but the fact of the matter, like you just said, we are in a recession. The official, you know, recession, or the officials of this, the national bureau of economic research, NBER, is a private nonprofit group made up of economic research and gross domestic product or GDP is just one of the indicators used to determine when a recession begins and when a recession actually ends. So the group also looks into employment trends as well, right? Industrial productions and of course retail our trends as well. The official definition of a recession is that a significant decline in economic activities. So we're seeing this right now and it spread it spread across the whole economy and of course the last four the last few months. Joe Biden is calling it an economic progress, and this is just irritating me so bad. Right? But, you know, it's said, hey, it's an election year. Midterms right around the corner. So they don't want to admit that, yeah, we are, in fact. In a recession, things are not real good. I mean, in practical terms, a recession is a period of increasing unemployment, business failures, general, economic, distress, with insanely high inflation and interest rates on the rise. I've said it many times. The fed is back from the vacation. They're working this year, and they are aggressively raising interest rates, but it almost doesn't matter about the low low unemployment rates holding steady at about three and a half percent, 3.6, 3.7%. The economy is still squeezing consumers considerably. Things are pretty tough to pay for. Thanks to inflation. So I, I'll say it again, schnitzel, the recession is in session. How do you survive a recession if you are planning on retiring soon? Maybe you're in retirement already. What if you're getting close? What if you look down the end of the road, you see retirement coming? What plan should you make right now to survive a recession so it doesn't really broadside your retirement plans. 727-228-6449 is
Techmeme Ride Home
"nber" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home
"There you go. Even worse. Okay, well, you know, continue. Listen, Noah, for our purposes, close enough. I can play an economist on TV better than Ben Stein king. If you play an economist on substack, so that seems good enough for me. All right, mister mister economist on TV, let's get the hardest question out of the way that the one that made us want to talk to you, but I've been talking about for two weeks. Are we in a recession? Yes or no, but then I have follow-ups. Well, I mean, recession, there's basically three definitions. There's does the NBER say we're in a recession and the answer is no. There's have we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which is sort of the folk definition, which the answer is maybe. We'll see when the revisions come out. And the third question is, are we producing at below trend level of GDP, which is probably yes, a little bit. So the answer is maybe we might be in a recession depending on how you want to define it, but we're not in the kind of downturn that really people associate with the word recession. They think of the Great Recession of 2008 and 9. They think of other downturns like the downturn in the early 90s and these big painful things that put a lot of people out of work. And so far, nothing like that is happening. And it may happen, but it's not happening yet. I'm going to reference pieces that you've written all night long, but I thought that was interesting, your piece on, are we in a recession, is the trendline, which is to say that when you're in a really nasty recession, lines go down, all the lines go down. And that's sort of what is perplexing folks like me right now is not all the lines are going down. And so, but what you're saying is that if you look, if you define a recession as an economy is generally going this way, the trend is going this way. And then it's not quite going in the direction that it was, but it's still going up, that could be a form of recession, is that what you're saying? I'm saying what I'm saying is that the term recession is there's no official government definition of that term. And there is, and there's no, there's no alpha. As they say, in knowing whether we're in a recession or not. The word, when there's a big painful downturn of the kind that we really care about, you'll
The Pomp Podcast
"nber" Discussed on The Pomp Podcast
"Gold price has been coming down, indicating that we think of the market thinks that inflation may be coming down in the long run as well. I think the fed if you listen to their commentary is very focused on employment and seeing employment numbers, the jobs report came in very hot last week. After the close of the month of July is throwing some confusion because if you look at the initial jobless claims or a few other indicators, they're starting to see employment start to turn down. In the crypto market we've obviously seen a lot of layoffs for everybody coinbase blockchain dot com every crypto lending player. They're all affected by this. The broader market is as well, especially in kind of more consumer spending sensitive areas, so as these things start to kind of cool off, bad for the economy. I mean, we've seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Technically a recession by most people's definition that apparently up for debate these days. And indicators that things are turning down to the point where the fed may change their tone turn more dovish less hawkish. And that's been good for both equities and crypto just over the past, I would say three weeks. So in the report, you guys specifically mentioned the fact that the two consecutive negative GDP quarters could cause some sort of fed pivot or at least change people's minds. Talk a little bit more about how important the technical definition of the recession is versus maybe some of the other metrics or things like the NBER and in some way officially unofficial labeling of is it a recession or is it not? How do you guys kind of put weight on the technical consecutive quarters versus maybe some of the other metrics? Yeah, I think for us I mean, we look at it definitely as two quarters of negative GDP growth is a recession. We've been thinking we've been in our session we're headed for one for a long time and so for our perspective, we think we're now by definition in a recession. There's a lot of things out there that impact who wants there to be a recession or not. If you look at we're in an election year, it's not good to be the economic leader or the political leader in a recession. So that's weighing on it a bit as well. But overall, if you look at consumer sentiment is at Lowe's since this hardback is the metric goes back to the 70s. The consumer feels like we're in a recession. And we're starting to see kind of some of the earnings reports come out that indicate that is slowing. Interestingly, there's this feeling of very bad sentiment, but at the same time, banks report strong consumer spending. So we maybe we feel worse than we're acting, which is kind of an interesting counter narrative there. And obviously, we've seen the inflation reduction act and a number of other kind of government proposed solutions, whether they end up being successful or not is up for debate. But it does feel like given that inflation is so high. And there's this technical definition of a recession. Policymakers, central bankers, they feel like they have to do something, right? It's almost like as humans, if we're doing nothing, then we're not in control.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The former US Treasury secretary Jack thinks the U.S. economy could suffer a deep recession. He told Bloomberg that this is an abnormal moment in history. We're gonna add an normal moment. We're coming out of a pandemic when the global economy shut down. We have a war in Europe, inflation is high and supply chains have still been slow to recover. I think that what you're seeing is the fed raising interest rates to fight inflation and seeing that very healthy labor markets are staying strong. I think that means the fed will keep pressing to get inflation under control, but we know that when you raise interest rates, it does slow the economy. So we will see a slower economy. That it should be expected. They're trying to manage a bumpy landing and so far it's working. We don't know for sure that it will work going forward. But I think they're right to be watching the data as it comes in and move in a way that makes inflation. The principle objective reducing inflation. But also being mindful of the fact that the employment consequences have very real impact and you don't want them to be bigger than need faith. So one of the questions we all have and you and I don't think know the answer to it, but we can only speculate about it is can we slow inflation down as much as we need to without going into a true recession, not a technical recession, but a true recession, the NBER thing. I mean, we hear conflicting things, frankly, economists, a lot of economists say we're going to have to get a recession. On the other hand, we see a lot of the markets indicating, no, no, we can back off before that. Yeah, I think the markets are getting a little bit ahead of themselves in the sense that they try to have instant awareness of where things are going when there's almost total uncertainty about where things are going. I don't think there's any reason to believe the fed will back off quickly if they see inflation that responding. But if inflation is responding in unemployment starts going up more than they want, you will see an adjustment. I know the macro models have assumptions about what the non inflationary rate of employment is. I think we've never seen an economy coming out of a shutdown like this at a moment like this when the world is in the kind of unusual and unique spot that it's in. I'm optimistic that this can be managed without having a full blown deep recession. But it's not out of the question. More key voices in the recession debate that's former U.S. 30 secretary Jack Lewis speaking with Bloomberg's David Westin, looking here on a live shot of Sydney as we reflect on the RBA decision we got a boost by 50 basis points at the market that is anticipated, but also we had this moving away from the preset paths and normalizing rates. It covers continues with Manus the rest of the team
"nber" Discussed on WLS-AM 890
"You're listening to the Dan bongino show. Here he is, Dan bongino. Oh, this is just happened. I'm gonna get to the free Beacon piece, a piece I promise we've got more than enough time. About the government, okay, clear First Amendment violation clear. I'm gonna get to that. We got a lot of time, don't worry about it. But they said you saw this during the big gym. You know, Tommy Christopher from media, again. A man with no human dignity at all, a soulless vacuum of a human being, yes. Poor Tommy. So because Tommy is an avid defender of the communist regime. They had to go back ten years to find a clip on Fox of Elizabeth McDonald talking to Jenna Lee, Jenna Lee was great. She doesn't even work there anymore. And they're like, whoo. Talking about a recession. There's a safe way. Same way, ten years, ten years. I'm not even gonna play in the car. Just read the words. Let's make the McDonald's says, hey, listen, it's not just two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The NBER are the umpires who call recessions. Yes, Tommy, nobody disputes that, Tommy. We're telling you that when we speak and just common everyday language before the NBR makes a formal classification everyone, including the media, I just played the Montage, has referred to a recession as two negative quarters. Why? Because we live in the present. We can't wait a year for the NBER. We're talking about regular common language people have used for Tommy CRISPR. The guy really, Tommy, seriously. Do you have family? Do you have to do, do you have a mom and dad? Aren't you embarrassed? I can't. I can't. My mother in law came over before, right? My gas mirror, she's like, Joe Biden's getting to you. I'm like, yeah, how do you know that? She was, I heard you on the radio yesterday. It's like you can't take it anymore. I'm like, I can't. She's like, you gotta relax. You're not gonna make it I'm like, wow, wow, she prays a lot to the virgin Mary. She says a lot of math. You know something I don't because if they're telling you, I need to know about it. Oh, nothing at least anything. Nobody's saying anything. But she's like, I can tell they're getting to you. They are, in a way. I mean, I love my job and I love what I do, but on a very serious note, it is really, really difficult to have to watch this kind of stupidity. Just every day in and out to wake up in the one of the first things I do in the morning, which I don't recommend you do. It is a really stupid and terrible thing to do. I recommend you wake up in the morning and if you pray, pray in the more I pray at night. But don't pick up your phone right away. I do it. It's a stupid idea. It is. It's a really dumb idea. One, the light's terrible for your eyes in the dark. It wakes up my wife, who doesn't get up as early as I do. But I go to the phone right away, and I'm always in my heart rate goes up instantly. It's why it's such a dumb idea. My heart jumps. And because I got to read the stupid every morning. And this morning I woke up ridiculously sore, by the way. I was doing leg presses in a gym yesterday. I didn't squat yesterday. Yesterday it was leg day, I moved it from Saturday to Thursday because I was waking up Saturday morning with a headache. I'm not going to say why. I'm not going to say why, but I was waking up on Saturday with a lot of headaches. Maybe something connected to Friday night, I don't know. Their allegations unless you can prove in a court of law. I'm not interested. So I decided to move leg data Thursday. So yesterday, I went to the gym and I did leg press since I did widowmaker leg presses. You know, widowmakers are when you pick your ten set max and you do
The Charlie Kirk Show
White House Can't Tell You What a Women OR a Recession Is
"Believe that the masters of the universe, if you will, put that in air quotes. They are cheering for an economic reset. Very similar to the great reset. White House Jean Pierre cut 45 declines to define what a recession is. Let me just be very clear. They can't tell you what a woman is, they can't tell you what a recession is, what can they tell you, exactly? Play cut 45. And what is exactly The White House's definition of a recession. Again, we don't we don't I'm not going to define it from here. I'm just going to leave it to the NBER as we have stated of how they define recession. They have declared it one. I'm just saying that we're just not going to define it. We use the indicators that the NBER, the national bureau of economic research, have used. We've mentioned that a few times. I find this to be so funny. All the bureaucracies lean on one another. So if you went to the NBR, they'd say, oh, no, no, you have to go back to The White House for a definition. You know what that's like? That's like trying to get a passport. Every single government agency you go to tells you have to go to the other government agency. Social security administration says you have to go to the post office. They say you have to go somewhere else. Can I just go to one place to get all this done? No, you need this paper, stand by this person to go to this place. It's a never ending circus of bureaucratic referrals.
WNYC 93.9 FM
"nber" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Biden administration knows that's going to be a problem for them as for Democrats broadly as we approach the midterms. And of course, David my day job, I cover The White House. And so this week, the Biden administration, it seems went to quite great lengths to make sure that reporters keep in mind that even if we see two quarters of negative growth, that that does not necessarily mean we're in a recession. Yep. Oh, David Are you there? Yep, go ahead. You're back. Sorry, President Biden's advisers try to get ahead of this reports, but I guess we could call a pre bottle. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen appeared on NBC's meet the press on Sunday. A recession is a broad based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy. We just don't have that. And she pointed to consumer spending, which is continued to grow credit quality, how households are doing and a jobs market that is still very strong. In June, the economy added 372,000 jobs. Challenge for The White House is a majority of registered voters believe we're in a recession already given slow and growth and high inflation. And I head to the midterm elections Republicans are saying Democrats here are making a semantic argument when people are suffering. Well, what is the commonly accepted definition of a recession? This is tricky. There is no universally agreed upon definition, the official designation of a recession in the U.S. is made by a committee of 8 economists from a private nonpartisan group called the NBER. That's the national bureau of economic research. And that organization says GDP is an important factor, but they also take into consideration other economic indicators, income, for instance, how much factories are producing and the unemployment rate. You know, the problem with relying on the NBER's call is, it tends to take a long time. Many months for those economists to make that official determination. So there's a lag. It usually happens well after business leaders and the rest of us see signs a deep downturn is underway. So David, we have been speaking quite a bit here about the definition of a recession. And what economists say, but leaving that aside for a moment, how would you describe the overall economic health of the country? Yeah, in some ways, it's doing well. Again, the jobs market is strong, hiring is solid, the unemployment rate keeps falling last month. It was at 3.6%. That is really close to where it was before the pandemic, spending has held up. People are traveling. They're going out to eat. They're doing summertime things. However, inflation is still red hot. The worst that it's been in four decades, up 9.1% last month from a year earlier. That's wiped away wage gains, and it's having a real impact on living standards. Home prices keep soaring, so does rent the stock market has plummeted so retirement accounts have taken a big hit. And I want to come back to sentiment, how people feel about the economy right now. This matters. Can people afford higher priced food and gas? They have jobs, but are they good jobs that pay well? The answers to these questions are critical and matter more to people as but certainly at this moment than a highly technical definition. That's NPR's David gura, thanks so much. Thank you. It's hot in the Pacific Northwest. So hot that Oregon's governor declared a state of emergency across much of her
The Trish Regan Show
The White House Is Lying
"Yellen and President Biden are trying to get you to believe that no, no, you get to wait until then, you know, national bureau of economic research, the NBER comes out and defines what recession is. I'm sorry guys. You know what? I'm going to go buy again the classic definition the textbook definition. It's right here in the economics one O one book. Two quarters of negative GDP growth to quarters, consecutive quarters of a decline in total production is a recession. Now, goodness, I certainly hope it's not a depression. We haven't had many of those, right? You gotta go back to the 1930s. I mean, it would be pretty horrible, albeit somewhat remarkable if Biden were to bring that on. I hope that it's going to be just a recession and I'm hopeful that we can recover from it. But look, you just had policy failure after policy failure. After policy failure. Are you can't even make it up? It was so obvious, frankly, to anybody who had a couple of brain cells and yet these idiots, both at the fed and in The White House, chose to ignore why. I mean, I would just argue that for political reasons, they want to be more sensible. They should be more sensible because they ought to know that inflation is going to come back and bite them politically in ways that makes it simply not feasible for them to continue in office.
Mike Gallagher Podcast
Karine Jean-Pierre Can't Define the Word 'Recession'
"Look at the economy. They're battling over what a recession is. They're sitting there arguing about whether we're going to be in a recession when these disastrous numbers come out this week, the fed's going to raise interest rates again. As the interest rates raise, get increased, fewer and fewer people can buy a house. That's how they think they can curb inflation is the slow people down from spending money. That's the essential formula. Listen is CNN's Caitlin Collins and White House press secretary Karen Jean Pierre yesterday in The White House press briefing. And what is exactly The White House's definition of a recession? Again, we don't we don't I'm not going to define it from here. I'm just going to leave it to the NBR as we have stated of how they define recession. Until they have declared a one. I'm just saying that we're just not going to define it. We use the indicators that the NBER, the national bureau of economic research, have used. We've mentioned that a few times. But going to your question about how sometimes it's late. Look, I think what we're not even, I think, what the point that we're trying to make here is that we have a strong labor market, which you don't normally see in a recession. That is very uncommon to see that. When you see an average of 400,000 jobs created per month, when you see an unemployment at 3.6, which is historical, that does not, that does not define a recession. And so that's what we point you to, that's what we're looking at is how the economy is currently in this moment.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Our last question, which is when, if in fact, it looks like we're headed toward a recession. I mean, some people think we may be in a technical one already. We'll see from the GDP numbers we get. Maybe a tecmo, but it's not one that the NBER would say there's a recession. When do you project it's most likely we may be actually hitting a recession in the United States a real one. So our base case is the third quarter of next year. Obviously, that's a point estimate. And there's a range around that. There's a distribution of probabilities around that. It could be a little bit sooner, could be a little bit later. But we feel pretty strongly that this is not an economy that's about to kind of roll over. Because to get a real recession, you need to get a full blown layoff cycle and would typically triggers companies to really start laying people off in a significant way is, is that typically follow the period of margin compression, cash burn, and deterioration of corporate balance sheets that raises down great risk default risk. And that's why companies ultimately cut back because if they cut back prematurely, they risk losing market share. And I think just given the health of corporate balance sheets today, given the fact that margins are still basically at cycle peaks, it just does not look like this is an economy that's, you know, this is a corporate sector that's about to embark on a significant cost cutting cycle. I think companies are managing costs, you know, kind of around the edges, maybe not replacing employees that are quitting, but a layoff cycle still seems to be at least several quarters away. And then I think so much always enjoy having you on. That's an markovska of Jeffries. Coming up, former energy secretary Dan Britt
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"But given how the fed is likely to view these numbers, do you do you assess that the chances of a recession within the next 18 months are higher after these numbers than before them? So I look, I'm really not going to comment on Federal Reserve actions. But what I will say is this is if we look to the NBER, the national economic research, and their business cycle dating committee, they look at a variety of indicators, including the labor market, the employment situation which we know is strong. They look at industrial production, which also has been strong. They look at household finances, and that transfers, which remain robust. So looking at the variety of indicators at the NBR looks at our economy looks well positioned to deal with the challenges faced by the fed attempting to cool inflation and the Russia's war against Ukraine. But let's face it, we'll be watching and we will be monitoring and we are really going to be hoping that the fed reserve can pull off this soft lambda. You're an esteemed Colin and I kind of see you're the one who would tell me the NBER gets to decide whether there's a recession or not. But are you confident, doctor rouse that we are not currently in a recession in the United States of America? When I look at those indicators and I look at the way that I understand the NBR is likely to wake them up, I believe our economy remains robust, but I look, I'm going to be the first to admit that we have challenges that we face ahead, inflation is unacceptably high. Russia's war in Ukraine continues. But what I will say is one, we come into these challenges with indicators that continue to be relatively strong. They're moderating. We are seeing signs that our economy is responding to actions that the Federal Reserve is taking, which is what we welcome. That's what we need to see. And I just also this just underscores it really highlights how important is that we'd be making the important investments we need to be making so that going forward we have the economic capacity to be increasing economic growth so that we can transition to strong and steady growth that isn't afflicted by inflation and where we have wages that are increasing due to productivity increases and that those gains are more widely shared. Doctor Ross, thank you so much for your time and this very, very busy day. That's a doctor Cecilia Ross. She is chair of the president's council of economic advisers. Great to have you with us. And a programming note, Cleveland Federal Reserve bank president Loretta
Bloomberg Radio New York
"nber" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is Bloomberg. Welcome to Bloomberg opinion. I'm vani Quinn. This week. What we know is certainly sufficient for impeachment if he was still in The White House. And it may very well be invited. Jonathan Bernstein on the new house January 6th committee revelations and the fallout from the Supreme Court overturning roe. First to the markets, seemingly a little at sea this week and generally getting warier of weaker economic data. This, though, as fed officials continue to talk up rate increases and Terry J Powell talks about finding price stability in the new economy, whereas Jared dillion of the daily dirt nap and Bloomberg opinion. Hedge fund manager Michael bury, famous obviously for getting the big short right as the great financial crisis was unfolding. Send a tweet out this week suggesting the fed may actually pause or even reverse hikes because deflationary impulses are brewing in certain areas of the economy. We have seen a couple of people float this idea in recent weeks. Is he right? He is right. And what he was referring to in particular was this phenomenon where retailers are building inventories to record levels. And inevitably, if you're a retailer and your inventories are stuffed, then at some point you're going to have to discount, you're going to have to lower prices in order to get rid of those inventories. And that is deflationary. I mean, that's inherently deflationary. And the inventory's piece is just one piece of the puzzle. We're really getting a deflationary impulse throughout the economy. You're seeing in a lot of places like the manufacturing surveys, the regional manufacturing surveys that they're just dropping like wet socks and a chicken is one of my friends used to say. So this is something. I was moderating a panel of Credit Suisse this week with four different firms represented and the figures 70% and 80% were both mentioned in relation to the prospect of recession. So it seems like there are more and more people turning a bit negative on the economy. Do we have to have the NBER call it before we really know or before the fed even reacts? Well, we might actually be in recession already. I mean, the NBR uses a number of factors to calculate a recession and it's possible that as months go by that you'll see some of the data that we're currently experiencing. You'll see that get revised lower. So it's possible that we're already in a recession and then 6 months from now the NBR say, well, yes, we were actually in recession back in June. So I think it's totally possible. So is the fed then waiting for more data to come in before it does something and kind of continue to hike interest rates if indeed there is a high possibility that we are in a recession. Well, I think the one data point that's going to get the fed to stop hiking is the labor market. And really because of optics and because the politics around unemployment and if unemployment were to go up significantly, say that unemployment rate goes to 5.5 and a half or 6%, then that's a severely lagging indicator, but then it would be absolutely clear that we're in recession. The problem with the fed doing that is that the problem doesn't really anticipate these moves in the economy. It really reacts to them after the fact. So if yes, it's probably true that the fed stop hiking now, but they won't actually probably for three to 6 more months. Yeah, and I mean, that's probably what we're seeing in the stock market right now, because it does seem a little at sea, no. I mean, we've had multiple days of barely any moves, but then sort of one random 2% drop on Tuesday. Some reasonably bullish on stocks. I think sentiment is pretty terrible here. I think sentiment is bombed out. And I'm actually expecting a rally. Really the worst the data is, the better it is for the stock market because that builds more of a case for the fed to pause rate hikes. Yeah. At the same time, the fed can't really pause relax until we see it in inflation expectations, right? I mean, it's actually targeting inflation expectations right now, which it said it is. But how do we even try to predict what the impact of that will be on stock and bond markets? Well, the interesting thing is, is we're getting a little bit of early evidence that inflation expectations are coming down. We got that the other day at the University of Michigan survey. That inflation expectations on a one year basis and a 5 to ten year basis had come down just a little bit. So even though they haven't really actually hiked interest rates a lot, they've done sort of this verbal tightening over the last 6 to 9 months. And it has been having an effect. It's been having a huge impact. So I'm going to quote from one of your pieces, you say, as laughable as it may seem, there may still actually be a transitory element to current inflation. That was a function of quantitative easing government spending and pandemic hoarding. You're really buying into this idea that we could see inflation coming down pretty precipitously soon. No, absolutely. I mean, I'm very confident that the 8.6% print we got on CPI. I think that's going to be the highest. I think the next point is going to be lower. The economy is slowed quite a bit since that last CPI print. So yeah, I mean, I think it's very possible that by the end of the year, we could have inflation somewhere around 5% or 6%. Jared, do we have to be confident in this Federal Reserve before we make it calculation on the economy though? I mean, I asked that because I'm not sure that even this Federal Reserve is confident in itself on this particular cycle. Well, I mean, Jerome Powell said that he isn't really he doesn't really sure what causes inflation or I forget his exact quote. But nobody really is. I mean, it's really a psychological phenomenon. And that's really the purpose of the rate hikes is to crush the inflationary psychology. And I think it's doing actually a pretty good job. And some have pointed out recently that in previous inflationary episodes, you had to raise fed funds above the rate of inflation in order to get inflation down, which would mean we would have to take fed funds up to 9%. I don't think that's going to happen. And I don't even think that's necessary. I mean, I didn't think you could raise rates to 3% and you're going to be able to take this down because of this transitory element. Everybody made fun of the fed calling it transitory and then capitulating, but I think it may in fact be transitory because of these one time factors. Yeah, I obviously we're seeing commodity prices coming down, which I'm not sure that many people would have predicted, even recently. Yeah, I mean, the CRB commodity index is down about 10% from the highs and the half in pretty quick. And I expect you're going to get a little bit more downside there. We continue with Jared dillian next. Have you on weather and how to perhaps time the market? Don't forget, do get in touch with opinions and comments. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie quin, or email, add vi Quinn at Bloomberg dot net. Numeric opinion is also available as a podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your
podcast – Lawyers, Guns & Money
"nber" Discussed on podcast – Lawyers, Guns & Money
"Paul Mende said, it will. It will very soon. So you should get a jump on it. And so I began handcrafting HTML and putting up files. And running them from the machine, burbling away at the corner of our bedroom. Economics never got its archive dot org. It did get NBER dot org, which because it was a gatekeeping, get gate kept organization restricted to members. Faculty research fellows and research associates. Caused, I think, a bunch of long run problems for economics. But economics never got its archive dot org. Nevertheless, I pushed forward, and come 1998. I was as one does picking up my new copy of foreign affairs. And going upstairs and reading it, not cover to cover, but skimming interesting things, finding two very useful thought and interesting articles by economists. One by jag dish baguette and one by Paul krugman. Paul krugman raved about how great I was. And about how insightful my work on economic growth was. Jag dish baguette denounced me as one of the most pig headed and short sighted apologists for global capital mobility. Both of them were people whose attention I very much wanted to get at that stage in my career. As some of the very senior princes of economics, as Nobel Prize caliber thinkers, they both are. Paul got his jag dish was I think cheated of his when they gave the trade award to a different bunch of people who should have gotten it, but that's not there. At any event, I looked at the quotes they had and the quotes weren't from the published versions. They were from the versions I had thrown up on the web. And I had the I thought. And I had this image of jagdish and Paul both under some frantic deadline from foreign affairs with the editor yelling at them on the phone. Wanting a quote to slot in in some place and their argument. And so desperately, there was no Google back then. I think it must have been Alta vista dot deck dot com or something, the digital equipment corporation's version. Googling and finding my quote and then sliding it in. And I.
"nber" Discussed on WLS-AM 890
"I have an interesting piece from Grover norquist over Fox business Where he talks about not just how the Biden administration is ignoring the problem but they are actively trying to make the problem worse He has an article called 5 problems with the Biden inflation plan I would argue they're not problems Again it's not a glitch It's a feature Biden wants to make inflation worse And norquist notes that Biden is looking to increase the tax rate corporate tax rate from 21 to 28% That's a great idea That's just delicious Now norquist notes in the piece that these tax hikes on businesses will not be paid by large corporations but will simply be passed on to working families in the form of higher prices He cites a 2020 study by the NBER found that 31% of corporate tax hikes fall on consumers The rest falls on the workers of the company So again just to be as clear as scotch tape here Joe Biden's plan for the inflation costing you more money is to take more money out of your pocket through tax hikes Sounds like Joe Biden to me Let's go Brandon I agree Sounds like Joey B You don't have enough money to pay for your food and shelter I use the Biden plan Give us more money through tax hikes And through those tax hikes let's make sure the rest of it impacts the workers so they're less productive So when they're less productive the company produces less stuff So when an inflation crisis marked by too much money chasing too little stuff let's create even less stuff while taking away people's money to purchase the stuff that's still around How do you vote Democrat You know again and again and again I will say this I am not suggesting by saying that that the Republicans are some panacea or other solution to all of your problems I get it I am simply saying by asking that question of people how do you vote Democrat That the Democrats are undoubtedly the cause of pretty much all of your problems right now So wouldn't you just take a chance Everything they're doing is compounding this problem and making it worse All right I got more on this coming up including how they're compounding the gas crisis gas crisis as well You have you know mister wonderful Kevin O'Leary from Shark Tank you ever see him He just nails Biden to the wall and what they could do right now to fix the gas crisis and they're not doing it It's a great segment got that coming up and then I got Dave bosky bossy coming up at the top of the hour We'll be right back.
This Week In Google
"nber" Discussed on This Week In Google
"Show be devoted to Google IO. I really did. Maybe that's the look at the rest of the rundown is what you're saying. Yeah. Well, there's more. Oh my God, there's page after page. A whole lot more. Let's talk about this new EU what is your sense, Mike, of the direction that EU is taking? Is this a threat to big tech in the U.S.? I mean, some things like GDPR have been, I think, beneficial, yes? No, I don't think I would say that. Really? In fact, I'll have an article up, I think, tomorrow. I have to put the finishing touches on it about how GDPR is now actually being abused, often by Russian oligarchs in order to silence reporters. Oh my God. They're now claiming that if a reporter is collecting information on a Russian oligarch for the purpose of reporting that if they claim that the information is inaccurate, it's the same thing as if Google had inaccurate information about you and therefore they can sue you. Oh my God. There have been a number of these cases. It's like libel tourism now becomes GDPR tourism. It is worse than the libel tourism part. So I think there are some really, really serious concerns with it. And I think the other thing, too, is I think and I would argue this is true of most of the European regulations that have been put in place and that will be put in place is that unlike the U.S. that a lot of the politicians there are taking, I'm going to choose my words carefully here. A more thoughtful approach, but the end result, I think, is really, really problematic. And with the GDPR, I think we're seeing that very clearly. That's the one that's now been in effect for a few years now, where it's actually, it hasn't hurt Google or Facebook. It's really helped them, but it's destroyed a lot of the smaller competition. And there was there have been a few different research reports that have all come out within the last few months. There was an NBER report that came out a few months ago that just got a bunch of attention this week, even though it actually came out a few months ago. That showed that the number of apps that were available dropped tremendously, they had a way of calculating sort of innovation and they basically said innovation declined and also that the main beneficiary of the GDPR was Google. So basically a bunch of other smaller companies had a lot of problems and Google has helped. There's another study that effectively said the same thing, but we're looking at sales and profits. And basically said, for everybody else, sales and profits went down for Google and Facebook, they went up. And so you can argue about, and I think to some extent, the European approach, even as they talked about reining in big tech, they, in some ways, prefer that. Because if there's just Google and Facebook to regulate and deal with, that's easier than having to regulate a hundred or a thousand different companies doing a hundred or a thousand different things. And so they might prefer this sort of, oh, well, we just have to send in regulators to yell at and find regularly fine. Google and Facebook rather than having to deal with the small competitors. But from an innovation standpoint, as we just discussed, it kind of feels like Google is sort of reaching that stage of life where they're not so much the innovators coming out with the next big thing. And if we're killing off all of the new startups that might be more innovative, I don't think that's very good. And so that's my big concern about I don't think they're as fun the laws I don't think are as fundamentally ridiculous as Texas social media law or whatever. But I don't think that they've been successful. And I think they've created a lot of problems. And I think that there will be it'll take us a long time to sort of walk through and realize just how much innovation they've actually really stifled. It's a little disappointing to me because I do feel like. What we don't want is big companies regular self regulating, because they don't. They're going to optimize for profit. That's their job. So it's up to government regulators. In effect, proxy for society to keep these guys in line. So I'm very disappointed if this I think well intentioned and somewhat thoughtful effort has had such unfortunate dire unintended consequences is a little disappointing. It's not all well intended though. Well, I think much of the maze. I think much of it is. I think it's a mix of you have people who are certainly well intended, but maybe not very well informed. And then you have people who are not so well intended. And part of it is to me. But that's politics, right? That's all laws. If you really paid attention, yeah, but there's a question of how much of these laws are really driven out of trying to make the world a better place. And to do the things that you talked about, like not allow companies to be completely autonomous in terms of what they're doing. And how much of it is driven by spite. And I think that a fair amount of the regulatory focus is about spite. We don't like these companies. We don't like what they're doing. Therefore, we must punish them. Well, that's a lot of it. A lot of his prompted by competitors lodging complaints against these big companies, right? That's what stimulates a lot of these investigations and ultimately the laws. Well, what's your solution that if we can't, if we can't expect a legislative solution and we can't expect companies to self regulate? Sounds like we're out of luck. Well, I don't think so, actually. I think there are a number of things that we can do. And I'm sort of halfway through writing a paper, listing all of them out. So I'm not going to go through my entire paper right now, but I think that the reality is having more competition, having smaller competitors that can come up and say, you don't trust Google. You don't trust Facebook. You don't trust these companies. Here are alternatives and allow there to be real competition. That drives instead of telling companies how to run their business. Instead, prevent companies from using acquisitions to shut down competitors prevent companies from merging to form behemoths, encourage competition with your data about your impact, allow researchers to be able to see that. I think that's the Daphne Keller and they personally just testified before. I think it was the Senate Mike, I think. I think there's a movement toward transparency to research is the most sane next step that I too endorse. It's actually tricky. And in fact, the bills that are on tap right now that it was not technically testifying about those bills, but it really was because those are the only bills that are being considered right now. I think also do have a lot of problematic language. And this is what it gets to is a lot of this stuff is really, really nuanced and really, really specific. And poor language, even in well meaning, thoughtful bills can still be really problematic. And that's what we have a lot of. And part of that is it is really difficult to understand all of these different moving parts and how they play together. But also part of it is that these things all interact. And one of the biggest things I got at this in terms of what was happening with the GDPR is if you're talking about speech, if you're talking about privacy, if you're talking about transparency, and then you're also talking about competition, those things are often not very well aligned, right? You can put all these rules onto social media platforms. But again, the biggest companies are going to be able to handle that. And therefore, you're decreasing competition as you're apparently putting in place all these rules to deal with these things. And so looking at all of that combined and figuring out, how do we do this in a way that actually does increase competition and increase innovation without letting companies just run wild with all of our data and it's a really it's a really difficult needle to thread because those things work at cross purposes with each other, especially if you're not.