24 Burst results for "Nate Silver"
Democrats' momentum puts Senate majority in play
"So can Democrats flip the chamber this time we asked five thirty eight's Nate silver do you buy that as we're using back in the politics this is a pretty easy question at least for me yes I totally by the Senate is in play in the Democrats have a chance at winning let's start with the basic math Democrats currently control forty seven seats that means I need at least three or four pick up depending on whether Joe Biden Donald Trump as president in January by Doug Jones's Senate seat in Alabama maybe the rest of the country and Jones trails potential Republican opponents such as the timing cover in recent
Biden holds huge 24-point edge over Sanders in Michigan
"And news is breaking just out the Detroit Free Press poll Biden holds a huge twenty four point edge over Sanders in Michigan take it with a grain of salt though Hillary had a twenty five point lead over Sanders in Michigan last time Sanders ended up winning Michigan's primary by one point four percent so you know could could Bernie have another miracle he better because if he doesn't well it could be a bad thing cut number eight it is I do think is his campaign has two weeks to live no proof that it's viable in the next two weeks Michigan and Ohio being to me the two biggest S. he's got it right that's Chuck Todd friend of the show giving about a fortnight to show that he's not a complete loser but again as of yesterday there really wasn't much polling had no you know I was almost I think Nate silver was on Twitter complaining about that and then we get this thing twenty four point a lot of Bernie loses Michigan anywhere north of twenty points that's a that's I don't think he gets a fortnight hi yeah I I think I don't think you walk there because he's got people like AOC behind about it let's cut one Michigan we have a Goliath in our country today the life of the fossil fuel industry the Goliath of big pharma the last the a big money in politics yeah I hate those guys you've made our life good and have saved our life I hate them so much that's Bernie Sir here here's the problem with Bernie Sanders people they are not bright they're just not socialism who's the guy who still think socialism is a good idea will Bernie Sanders and his followers now the Democrat party understands the establishment understands of Bernie Sanders is a disaster that normal Americans are gonna look at this question comic curmudgeon inside all heck no actually I might not say hack but I'm trying to remain SEC compliant he would he would make Walter Mondale look like LBJ over Goldwater he just got trounced so of course their salaries if we need to go by then they like to bind because he's frankly completely out of it and would be a wonderful popped for the establishment of the Democratic Party he would do what they say they they run the country he be on the rose garden chasing chasing that uppity squirrels who keeps looking at him through the window the yeah I feel Bernie Sanders supporter how are you feeling right now the feeling good feeling respected because I gotta tell you you've been broken and humiliated you have been betrayed you've been lied to yeah the establishment has made sure that the fix is in your voice has been silenced by Donald Trump though you're told Donald trump's the cause of all your problems but by your own party and what are you going to do but what about it are you are you just gonna take it are you going to let the establishment the corporate Democrat party because you know that the idea of Republicans as the party of big business cannot cannot all these fortune five hundred guys they all the top the politics of their second wife they're all Democrats and you you are going to obey the corporatist part that's what you're going to do Bernie Sanders is going to have this election stolen from him again when you gonna cry in warning and then you're going to obey exactly you are going to do what your commander because you're not smart because you support a socialist and your weak and cowardly I'm just gonna try to call names I'm just calling it like it is you're going to be abuse and then you're going to come back
Joe Biden has 18-point lead in South Carolina, new poll shows
"But we begin at this hour for with your update from South Carolina now everyone including me sort of precipitously declare Joe Biden's campaign debt that's because he finished horribly and I will finish horribly in New Hampshire barely finish second in Nevada and so the the sort of going wisdom was that he was gonna collapse in South Carolina as well there's a new polling data out and it's showing that maybe his bat on that South Carolina firewall maybe he wasn't entirely wrong there two new polls out today one is from East Carolina University initialed by number eight thirty one percent to twenty three percent for Bernie Sanders and a second poll from Clemson University that shows a Biden up eighteen percent eighteen percent say blow out for a bite and that follows hot on the heels of a public policy poll that shows that that Biden is up fifteen percent which means that the new poll average in South Carolina she was a big spike for Biden it shows Biden is according to FiveThirtyEight shows Biden at thirty one percent in Sanders a twenty one percent if Biden would blow out Sanders in South Carolina in fact there's a new poll that shows the tenders actually running below times tire in South Carolina believe or not if Bernie were to finish third in South Carolina and buy more to clean up in South Carolina this radically region there's the race in a serious serious way why will suddenly it appears that Joe Biden is a living human being and that is a massive thing because then we move on to super Tuesday and once we get super Tuesday remember South Carolina has a lot of delegates I don't want it all gets once you get to super Tuesday if Biden is cleaning up in the southern states and Bernie is cleaning up in the northern states in say California you could very easily end up with an incredibly close race sirtuin allergies that are out about this today they're worth checking into because maybe this race isn't quite so over as we were expecting depending on what happens on to everything comes out of Saturday okay if Biden doesn't win in South Carolina the suckers over Sanders the nominee if Biden wins and very very close Sanders is still likely the nominee if Biden wins it just blows Sanders out of Sanders completely collapses in South Carolina if he gets going in South Carolina suddenly this looks like a race because you could end super Tuesday with a very close race in terms of delegate count and then it is a two man race Sanders and Biden down to the wire with presumably Bloomberg continuing to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into anti Sanders ads and all establishment money moving over by these bad really hasn't picked up a lot of money yet because frankly he's a corpse so five thirty eight has an analysis they're looking at super Tuesday so super Tuesday they're a bunch of states that our programs are California Texas North Carolina Virginia Massachusetts Minnesota Colorado Tennessee Alabama Oklahoma Arkansas Utah Maine Vermont and American Samoa those are the the states and territories that are open on super Tuesday but a late check out daily wire would have live coverage all evening long on super Tuesday Sanders is widely expected to do very well in California the polls are showing that right now in Texas Sanders and Biden running neck and neck but if Jenner is Barbara blowouts Anderson South Carolina that obviously changes things rather radically in North Carolina Sanders is running slightly ahead of iden but again if I does real well in South Carolina that may change radically in terms of North Carolina right now Sanders expected to do well in Virginia began that could change radically Massachusetts Sanders will win handily walking away Sanders is expected to compete pretty evenly with club which are in Minnesota is expected to win handily in Colorado in Tennessee Alabama Oklahoma you should expect a big bite and boost if in fact Sanders were to collapse in South Carolina the same is true of Arkansas probably true in Utah probably true in in major American Samoa but that's like four four votes in in terms of delegate count five thirty eight as it should be a good night for Sanders delegate wise just as it should be in terms of votes for forecasting and to take on five hundred eighty seven delegates but remember that's in the average model running some runs he gets more others fewer but by name Bloomberg are also forecasted to get three hundred and five and two hundred eleven delegates now this is something you noticed Bloomberg is dropping precipitously in state polls he is dropping precipitously in national polling so the flavor of the week is done those last two debates have not how Bloomberg he's looking credibly week warnings taken out Bloomberg basically which means maybe that those voters go back to Biden if Biden shows that he is not a dead human in South Carolina warrant bridging club which are far bar far behind judge not significant number of delegates only out of California club which are from Minnesota and warm from California Texas Massachusetts in the five thirty eight numbers but here is the key says Nate silver at FiveThirtyEight these numbers could and likely will change they're still just under a week before super Tuesday plenty of time for the race to shift as we had a debate on Tuesday night and South Carolina but Saturday even small fluctuations in vote share can greatly affect the number of delegates each of these candidates gets that's because in order to be eligible for any delegates from a state or district a candidate has to get at least fifteen percent of the vote there and many non Sanders candidates are hovering right around fifteen percent in many states California is a good example on average they say we're currently forecasting by twin fourteen percent seventeen percent of the vote there warns when fourteen bluebirds went thirteen judge when ten because California is what so many delegates who gets fifteen percent is super important if the numbers were right only Biden Sanders we get a share of California's a hundred and forty four statewide delegates but minor variation could really scramble the picture so it's a mess it's a mess again those polling numbers in South Carolina and it's not those late breaking pulling numbers out of South Carolina it looks actually quite strong for Joe Biden going into the election the last three pulls out of South Carolina how Biden up average double digits eighteen fifteen eight K. N. Biden's got some momentum in South Carolina James Clyburn this was a very influential congressman from South Carolina particularly with the black community in South Carolina he came out today give a big speech about Joe Biden why he's endorsing by his club endorsing Biden I am fearful for the future of this country favor for my daughter's in the future and the other children the children's future the countries of the flexion point it is time for us to to restore
Dems go on attack at fiery Nevada debate
"Man so many things to take from this debate I would say though out of this season I don't know if this is the best debate I forget who it was that you read from the best of a jump yeah ever but but certainly if if it's up there on the books you know it's of of this political season it's the best so far no doubt but it makes you wonder what Bloomberg was thanking you know you look at the delegate count here for the primary they change the way the super delegates vote at the convention after twenty sixteen because you have these pre I'm essentially pre pledges by some of the super delegates going to Hillary and the day date so the Democratic Party changed that to where the super delegates won't vote unless there is a a second round or there's no doubt that what what the first round unless there is no doubt of a winner in other words Bernie would have to get nineteen hundred and ninety one or more of those delegates right now he's in the lead that's what we say burning but you go to Nate silver's forecast and it has him hundreds right now hundreds shy of that nineteen ninety one mark I'm it is a it is a very odd very odd position for the party to be on extremely extremely rare but you look at the idea of a brokered convention anybody believe Bloomberg's going to just drop out before super Tuesday that's not gonna happen we don't know for such an high on my vitamins good gains if if now where do you know he's blown he's got at least see how he does well it or Zachary even though you've done yet whether it was like laying down about walking away from the table you're not gonna do that until you spin the wheel but the the whole thing with with blackness is all right Bloomberg's following it let's say there's a falloff goes where you and I were discussing this during the break some of the go to burning and you made a good point that you know people get on the Bernie bandwagon because they see him as the winner okay I want to be somebody who is with the winner I'm or they go back to fighting do they go to boot a judge I think you'll probably see that support drop but it won't drop is zero four but before Bloomberg it's not gonna drop zero so he's still remains the spoiler going in this super Tuesday I was so I was just reading this was an article yesterday before the debate mauling Mollie Hemingway from the federalist dot com fox news contributor talking about this was not how the twenty twenty race was supposed to be the end talking about Bloomberg even if he can buy the democratic nomination he's not what their base voters want a talks about that you know what the establishment was trying to do and after looking at the options and all that the plan was to give Joe Biden president Obama's vice president the nomination the media did their part suppressing negative messaging about the seventy seven year old who has never won a presidential primary or caucus they pushed an impeachment designed to suppress president trump's numbers heading into the election year and instead it blew back of them gonna help trump and hurt the Democrats and when Bernie Sanders seemed poised to win Iowa they drastically limited news coverage about the caucuses and she actually references to the the actual research that was done leading up to Iowa and how as they got closer thinking burning was gonna win that the news coverage actually on the networks just drop the stories on the actual well I will call causes but Biden underperform their than under performed in New Hampshire coming in an embarrassing fifth place you may do better in Nevada and North Carolina but his path is looking more like a slog when but Biden faltered the media looked at others in the center left field Democrats have two lanes essentially the Bernie Sanders lane and the center left lane sometimes misnomer by liberal journalists as a moderately pain despite none of the candidates in that lane being politically moderate sure the establishment would take Amy Klobuchar or even put people to judge or Elizabeth Warren over Sanders but if they're being honest with themselves they're worried that those candidates don't have what it takes they spent years getting high on their own supply about Biden's strain and trump's weaknesses but now they're coming out of their narco haze and they're panicking they're so desperate that they're willing to sell the party nomination to Mike Bloomberg of all people while his views are at odds with many of the Democratic Party base voters it's hard to get more establishment than Bloomberg who made billions selling his terminals to Wall Street this week the establishment is really amping up its flirtation with the wi New Yorker the billionaire businessman has not won any votes yet and isn't even on the ballot in the next two states holding elections but he has won support of many of the major media figures The New York Times yesterday had eight stories about Bloomberg on the politics page of its website compared to zero nine for the delegate leader and young mayor but a judge that is not an accident last Sunday's political shows featured nonstop questions and commentary about Bloomberg not the current odds on favorite to win the most delegates Sanders up until and unless he crashes in the debate or underperforms on super Tuesday there's an argument to Bloomberg should be presumed to be the front runner because he is the establishment's clear favorite of the remaining contenders and in the Democratic Party the establishment support means a great deal Bloomberg is spending on herds of amounts of money to essentially purchased the nomination he has spent more than four hundred million dollars in advertising get this now compared to eighteen million for the next non billionaire candidate mmhm he's providing ridiculously fancy food spreads as voter events and he's hiring people and good salaries through November regardless of whether he wins the nomination or not it's unclear how many people are simply agreeing to be bought and how many think his wealth is his biggest comparative advantage for defeating trump perhaps it's a combination of both but even if the media and democratic establishment are more than willing to be bought off our Democrat voters that pathetic possibly but there is reason to think the voters won't be as cheap a date as their leaders are proving to be so there you go let's note that some analysts are already comparing him to trump himself apparently on account of them both being brash New York billionaires Bloomberg is to be sure far wealthier than nearly every other human being on the planet but trump has charisma a base of support built around his brand and an actual agenda that is coherent in easy to understand he took on the establishment wing of his own party and legitimately excited a base that was sick of not getting his way on illegal immigration analysts interventional ism and trade agreements they deemed unfair trump hits on issues GOP voters a lot of it he won most of the votes in twenty sixteen most of the delegates and has extremely strong support inside of his party Bloomberg lacks charisma has no base of support and his campaign messages Mike will get it done and our sisters to claim it says nothing of substance in fact it is similar to Hillary Clinton's self focused I'm with her slogan down rather you guys how to read parts of it yes okay she goes on and talks more of you know about it there but I've you know you you think about that today and so you wonder what the response will be from the establishment media today that was putting their hopes in in in Bloomberg it look it was a terrible performance yeah I was horrible by the optics alone I mean he just looked it looked angry he looked fully unprepared because he was fully unprepared he looked you you said earlier deer in the headlights totally on so many things it looks
"nate silver" Discussed on 760 KFMB Radio
"Again this is the forecast not a it's not a poll and Sanders is second with thirty seven percent chance of getting the nomination getting above which is about fifty percent of the delegates he's got hit fifty or below the well otherwise they go into a a brokered convention and he must be seeing some internal data or something some you know that not just Nate silver's forecast but other data that shows that they are you know probably similar data that tells him the chance of a brokered convention is very real hi here it is from the Atlantic bind its current column here many in the party elite remain deeply skeptical of the Vermont sinner but rank and file voters do not sure that has a station in judging by media coverage in comments from party luminaries you might think Democrats are bitterly polarized over Bernie Sanders presidential bid last month Hillary said nobody really likes the Vermont senator into talks about car last week saying that he was scared to death of the Sanders campaign which you like and we'll call and all that but polls of democratic voters show nothing of the sort among norm ordinary Democrats Sanders is strikingly popular even with voters who favor his rivals he sparks less opposition and in some cases far less than his major competitors on paper he appears well positioned to unify the party should he win its presidential nomination so why all the talk of the civil war because Sanders is far more divisive among democratic elites who prize institutional loyalty and ideological moderation than democratic voters yeah I actually don't have well that you maybe some of the DNC met maybe that's a DNC I I can't tell you whether that's the case or not if they do if they're viewing ideological moderation it's not because that's what they want or that's what they believe the country should go a Tom Prez is as absolutely as liberal as you can get right let's not fool anybody Tom press is not a moderate now the only reason they may be promoting I'm that we need to be more moderate is the fact that they don't think Sanders can beat trump right gets down to that yes they're goal they're goal as to whether it's Jahren sear the DNC is to do whatever they can to ensure that their candidate can win right that's what they're about as a political party winning is number one right the reason and you and I took to task last week whether was Chuck Todd whether it was a a Chris Matthews mobiles the other one that was out there in the media and in order to have a car James from OJ yeah James James carvel out there we said look the moderates no no moderate set all the only that they weren't screaming six months ago the only reason they're screaming now is because they realized that Bernie has a great chance of being the candidate they see him in action and they say he can't beat trump this got nothing to do with their political ideology it has to do with the fact that they don't think he can win which is why you when I said from the very beginning we said one of the last things we said last night before we left is the only reason the Bloomberg is where he is right now is because he hasn't been vetted yeah right and and Democrats just like we saw in impeachment just like we saw in Russia collusion just like we sit you see on every single issue out there once the issue is debated one search cross examination and they're vetted they lose every time yeah it is some interesting you think about a brokered convention because their darned if they do their darndest to default if they don't go and is so they're going to a brokered convention right and it ends up it's not burning well you look at that and because who knows what kind of horse trading is going to be going on with the super delegates you know after they go through that first round and he doesn't come away with the nomination well you're going to lose whoever comes away with the nomination is gonna lose they're not gonna get to the far left is going to be angry the ones who are that that because whether he gets to fifty or not the the only campaign right now that has any energy at all is the burning campaign so you go into a brokered convention and he doesn't get the nomination then those I don't know I can't measure it but you could say a significant portion of those people will stay home the the rise of Bloomberg came only because of your panic of Democrats yes and they and they see in the under performance of Joe Biden and I'm gonna be as Biden was the so called moderates or whatever you want to say the the the the non Bernie and when Biden just started falling apart on the campaign trail is under performance not just been in Iowa and New Hampshire but I mean on on the road buying look better on stage last night the Bloomberg but yes there there is an that says a lot there's great disappointment in Democrat ranks right now yes they were hoping Bloomberg's the guy that's going to come in we said yesterday we've sent an across the board that when Bloomberg's is B. starts be be cross examined on the things that we he has said and we started playing the audio cuts over the last couple of days and said look you can't win right by saying this as a Democrat right it's impossible to do it well when you had the cross examination done by the other candidates and they're the members of the NBC and M. S. N. B. C. yesterday of course he's gonna flame out and of that and that's that's what happened now whether he believes he's going to spend another couple hundred million dollars on commercials to try to save this and what will be the response all I know is he lost big time last night and any Democrat to watch that when what's he doing on our state right exactly why is this guy in our stage this guy should be debating trump in a primary right why is he here with us he's everything and give you what I talked about this how many times think about it he's everything that the mainstream Democrat hates yeah he's a billionaire yeah do we have to go any further than that he's he's he's a billionaire he actually does believe in aggressive policing he's lying when he says he doesn't own but he believes an aggressive law enforcement right all right now he is to the point of saying okay we need just hand out of towners free stuff he's also one that narrative to but the fact is he represents the rich and Wall Street and profit making up and billionaires he's everything the Democrats take the fact that he even got to this particular point and was getting fifteen and in some states twenty percent right shows you how desperate Democrats are but the only reason you got this far is because he was invented early on no and so where did they go because those that don't want burning are split between basically right now Bloomberg and biting and biking just isn't performing I would not say what I would not put Biden on a stage against trump ever and if you want to know where the Democrats are right now if you want to know what their mindset is and by the way none of this is over the top hyperbole it's where they are in their own words we can play the state of the state from California and governor Gavin Newsom when you're ready all right here we go this is were I believe mainstream Democrats are right now healthcare and housing can no longer be divorced after all what's more fundamental to a person's well being then a roof over their head doctors doctors should be able to write prescriptions for housing the same way they do for insulin antibiotics that's for Democrats are now right housing should now be a prescription that you get from a doctor within social food association wind and water so waterfront housing right net transportation because again running without transportation right everything should be provided to you from the government he's a former mayor would you tell all the cities they need to they need to give free water they don't pay for water water is a necessity water water water is a bigger necessity that housing yes absolutely a B. water food housing yeah everything right then then and so that that point it includes everything and then if you need to be a productive member of society you'll probably need transportation needs to be provided to Iraq but the riots already going on in the big cities we've seen it New York City we shouldn't have to pay for the subway right so that's happening to this is where they are give me give me give me give me give me everything everything should be provided by the government that's where the Democrats ads are right now yeah they don't want to hear from a billionaire now talking about capitalism in calling them **** we're not communist we just want everything to be we just want all of our needs to be taken care of by the government right well we we want the government to control in history we were not communists we want government to control the means of production and all the capital yes but we're not communists quit calling is communist eight six six ninety redeye with with only radio toll free at eight six six zero.
"nate silver" Discussed on 760 KFMB Radio
"Has the morning off eight six six ninety right I just looking here at the at the head Nate silver's FiveThirtyEight forecast remember this is the forecast it's not pulling and Eric has been all over the the last couple of days and I just was reading before I came in tonight I was just reading about how he you know how he does the forecast and and look yeah and any look you meant to say look at the forecast in the forecast changes all the time based on you know what might happen in a particular state for example in New Hampshire what happen in Iowa and you forecast out based on models even from previous elections as to what happened so you're taking a lot of liberties in the forecast I understand that but it does give you I think like most polls do you know Bernie Sanders I was supposed to win by seven or eight he didn't he didn't win by seven or eight in a percentage points but he still won and so we did give you an indication it did give you an indication the poles of buying was dropping so I just I find it I've looked other people are playing fantasy football and things like that right with whom we play fantasy politics but it's changed again since last night Sanders and thirty seven percent okay who will win the the for this is the forecast will when the twenty twenty democratic primary Sanders right now according to the five thirty eight forecast thirty seven percent no one which means a brokered convention thirty six percent the biggest mover Biden sixteen percent he's done a couple of points but a judge four percent Bloomberg four percent worn of of a three percent all the others one percent as you notice of clover sure doesn't even appear in there and then they start going to the forecasted outcomes Sanders will end up with one thousand five hundred and forty six delegates by nine hundred and thirty seven Bloomberg five hundred and seventy but a judge for seventy five Warren three hundred and forty two in clover shark ninety four that's the forecast interesting thing is I think I'm gonna take a copy of this and keep it and see what the actual results are just this is the first year as he is saying as as he's made known that they're using and doing this type of forecast they said this is brand new so let's see how well let's see how close it is just take a snapshot now maybe take a snapshot in a couple of weeks and then really taken the snapshot after after March third and super Tuesday well kids easier at that point doesn't eight six six ninety right I it's time for your national forecast this very potent storm system brings yet another round of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms across the Deep South and mid south today and then later in the day we'll see some clearing some strong storms could be expected today and of course the flash flooding concerns are there the steady rain across the southern Ohio valley will increase flooding concerns as well now on the northern side of the storm we are continuing to see snow this morning from Chicago into Detroit that'll start winding down later in the day but a good portion of the day filled with snow from Minnesota Illinois in northern Indiana and most of Michigan across I ninety near Cleveland and into New York you'll find some icing in a narrow band that extends up through northern New York now west of the Mississippi things are mainly dry today some clouds along the west coast will bring in some rain for Washington and Oregon coast on Friday a look at your national forecast from red eye radio I'm meteorologist John trout are you looking for your mom or dad but don't know where to send you been lied to like two by Washington politicians in the Wall Street propaganda machine hi I make magazine bestselling author bright kitchen and if you're over fifty five with an IRA or four oh one K. I want to give you a free copy of my new book wealthy on Wall Street because according to time magazine Wall Street for one case of failed millions of Americans after losing thirty five percent in my IRA in the crash.
President, Washington Post And ABC discussed on Overnight re-air of day's programming
"Our presidential campaign what is the beginning have an opportunity in Congress with a new perspective shaped by the lives that in our campaign throughout these last three months to bring about the kindness of America all that was congressman Eric Swalwell of California ending his run for the White House earlier this week but with one candidate out another one is in billion or liberal activist Tom Starfire officially join the twenty twenty race Stiers best known for his ad campaign calling for president trump's impeachment and now he thinks there's room for another democratic presidential candidate we asked five thirty eights Nate silver do you find that the door by the Democrats the more candidates well Tom star would be during the most crowded field ever he knows that but his challenges not just the field as crowded but as crowded with Canada Democrats really like one pull back in March found that sixty eight percent of Democrats said they were satisfied worth using gastric with their field and if this has only grown since then the top four candidates Biden Sanders warning Eris all have now we're going to raise a plus forty or higher among democratic voters what is really like those top four five candidates next being a billionaire might help Donald Trump when the Republican nomination but Democrats you have always with warm Bernie Sanders campaigning against the one percent I'm not sure it helps so much a democratic primary fire can emphasize impeachment and his anti Washington corruption message although only three percent of the public overall supports impeaching president from sixty one percent impressed you according to latest ABC news Washington post poll but the rush investigation and aftermath is it really a top issue for voters according to Gallup it's just the eighth most important issue for Democrats to vote in a twenty eighteen mid term someone more thing I don't want to reduce everything to race and gender but it is worth noting that only about twenty five percent of democratic primary voters are white men and yet about sixty percent of the Kerr canning so far are white men so if we can ever gonna make a big splash running for president I might that on someone like George is Stacey Abrams instead
"nate silver" Discussed on The Young Turks
"He says, oh in the primary, it was hard to predict because he's going up and down actually he was fairly consistently. Number one. That's why back in June of twenty fifteen. I said he was definitely going to be in the top three and then by October of twenty fifteen before months before any of the voting I bet that he would win the nomination now. I what did I base that on my gut? No, I'm not an idiot like a TV pundit. I funny enough base it on the pulse. I also base it on how he was campaigning in the mood of the country. Now. In the general election, totally consistent numbers. Really, let me show you the polling Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump. That's real clear politics average of polls. Does that look consistent? You forget the left side of that, that's into primaries that they're not head to head. It's cetera. But look starting around April. Right. Who what the hell's consistent about those numbers Hillary Clinton's got a big lead? Donald Trump dips than he rises. And then he rises more than he passes her. And then he dips again what part of it is consistent enough for Nate silver to say that no, that's it. Well, let's wrap this election. Hillary Clinton has an eighty percent chance to win. Wrong again. And that did prove to be wrong. But again, I want to give context here Nate was better off than the New York Times having the post and almost every other outlet on election day, the only people who were saying that Trump had a better chance of winning the silver as far as I could tell on the national scene was us, and that is why the and there's plenty of famous videos about that floating around on the internet with lots of us were Ben an Icee brace for impact and because Trump can really win this thing. But I remember having impose Hillary Clinton's chase a winning at ninety eight point four percent. And they said, no, that's not true. His chances are higher, but not that high. And, and so he's a little off their or significantly better than the rest and that's really important. Got a cough here. But I want to get clarify the difference between right wing critics MSN, critics of Nate silver in us, the right wing doesn't care about facts at all. So they look at numbers and science, go. So, you know, my God, other words, Donald Trump doesn't believe in numbers. Okay. I mean, how do you have a conversation with people who don't speak the same language? So, by the way, don't just learn English. Learn math. So then you've got the mainstream media, who says Nate's a nerd and, you know, he's just focusing numbers and no by gut. My gut says I went to a cocktail party at all my millionaire friends said, the tax cuts for the richest really unpopular countries really sent a right. And they don't like that. Or you can look at a poll, and it says seventy six percent of the country wants tax increases for the rich, but everybody on TV's rich..
"nate silver" Discussed on The Young Turks
"So we can say new emails about the exact venue, the time, etc. And we will announce those between now and June eighth. So, but I got to see you there if you're not there, none of this is going to work if you are there. We can change the world. And I don't think it's hyperbole at all. I remember a scene from knock down the house movie about a OC and other just Democrats and longtime civil rights activists is in the room when they they're first starting out and they're young candidates. A lot of them. Have never run for office before. And it looks around the room and he says, someone in this room is going to change the world and he was right. So someone in that room. Mm-hmm. On june. Eighth is also going to change the world. So TY dot com slash rally. I need army there. That is an army of democracy. An army of truth, the T warranty army. So come, join me, and we together, wouldn't bark on an adventure, that just might change America. Right. That's fun for everybody. All right now, let's go on and eight silver. So Nate silver attacked us the other day by that's fun. Okay. And he actually. Was a little over the top to say the least I'm not at all fended by other people might be. In fact, I'm fairly amused by it, it was like he was trying to thump us or something like I'll show the bull ears will find out who the bully is, we'll find out who's right? But he was full of vigor. Let's put it that way. Okay, here, I'm gonna let you judge for yourself. So he talked about on this podcast that he later tweeted it like the quote, you're about the year. So he wasn't playing. He wanted to get our attention. Here's what he said. Let's start with the basics Nate. What does it mean when you see N slash a among a particular demographic group and a Paul's cross tops, we'll start with the basics? I mean, the young Turks are full of about this, and I hope that people see that and then the curious about why. Who are you in my grill? Okay. Ben Mankiewicz who I started the show with once said to Anna actually, who was trying to beat me in a race. She started out fast and she said, I was trying to intimidate him in the beginning and Bensaid. You're trying to intimidate the intimidator. Good luck Nate. Okay. So now let's see the substance of this, so we covered a, a CNN poll on the show just last week in John gave the background. I'm gonna show you exactly what he said to show you that we are right natives wrong in, and there was different categories, age groups, very normal in a poll, and there was a Representative sample in the older demographics and Nola demographics generally, like Joe Biden, the younger demographics. They did not have a Representative sample, but they do actually use a multiplier on that. And, and so neat explained that in this podcast I'll come back to them in a second. But it said any as it not applicable. We explain that to our audience that, apparently, is what set Nate and he's calling off because they thought we did not do a good job of explaining that again in a second. I'm going to show you the video. So you'll have absolute proof that they are wrong, but I more chest thumping from Nate silver, if you're implying, dear audience at your expert in these areas and you're just wrong about stuff then peop..
Top takeaways from Michael Cohen's testimony
"Today, he answered questions about Trump's communications with Roger stone relating to WikiLeaks about hush money payments to stormy Daniels about possible tax fraud about his own personal credibility and plenty more. So let's break down. What's new what's an actual legal liability for Trump if anything, and of course, the politics of it and here with me to do that our editor and chief Nate silver comes down. It's going well here in spent all day watching television. I guess it is my job. Yeah. Yeah. How was it? I'm one of those people where I like go to a museum like after the first hour, my eyes start to glaze over here. He lose concentration. Well, I think actually part of the problem is I think it got more interesting at the end toward the end because in part because you have all these old fogies who like are not asking show. Questions or grandstanding right toward the end. You had from I think both Republicans and probably more. Democrats more sharp lines of questioning more interesting things to say more differentiation. And so I think people should tune in for the for the second half. All right. We'll get more into that momentarily. But also here with us. Our senior writer Perry. Big junior Perry. How's it going? Hey, good to be with you. Thanks for joining us. And also we have five thirty contributor and legal reporter Amelia Thompson devoe him Melia. How's it going? Alan let's start with you a meal of the person who's helped us track. What kind of legal liability is on the table for Trump? Did we learn anything new regarding any possible criminality in anything that Trump did as either a candidate or as president today? Well, see we did get a clarification on one important thing. Which is the question of what happened with Michael Cohen's testimony previous testimony to congress, and whether the president directed him to lie there had been reporting from BuzzFeed saying that Trump had told him to lie to congress, which is a crime. And then there is a sort of immediate question about whether that reporting was true, and it seems based on Cohen's testimony that it was sort of partially true. Trump didn't come up to him and say, hey, I want you to light a congress. So it's not clear what my role was. In the Trump Tower Moscow deal at at a moment when it wouldn't look good for me, politically, but he sort of told Cohen to do it and not so many words in an indirect way. And the question the center, which that is illegal little bit more up in the air, but it's important to have sort of that clarification, at least based on Cohen's testimony. And then there were a couple of really interesting moments where Cohen got asked questions about the investigations in the southern district of New York. And those are the prosecutors that folks may remember had initially charged Cohen with campaign finance violations and other crimes back in August and cone, which sort of stop, and I can't talk about this because it relates to an ongoing investigation. And he even indicated that he's he's still cooperating with prosecutors in the hope of potentially his cooperation lessening his. Sentence in the futures. So that was really interesting sort of suggested, we know that prosecutors in New York are looking into the Trump organization's role in those payments or potential role and the inaugural committee. And so it was interesting to know the Cohen is still working with them. And of course, raises the question about what he might be telling them. So those are the headlines in terms of legal liability for Trump, which is I think perhaps what the Democrats were most interested in today pair, you've also been following these investigations what stuck out to you either from a legal standpoint or a political standpoint from a legal standpoint Amelia's hit about some things that might be different threads. But nothing jumped out in terms of the with the New York prosecutors investigating or in terms of Muslim militant getting imparted that think at times Cohen hinted. I can't talk about certain things because they're still in legal limbo. I think he was limited in that. In terms of the politics of are. Or the health? Congress handle that I was struck by two things. One is not shocking. But the Republicans members below time attacking Cohen calling Cohen Aligarh, and pointing out how much he had lied didn't really Cohen has some great detail in criticizing the president's behavior and conduct. That wasn't a lot of pushback against that. The Republican members themselves seem to concede a fair amount of it. And then on the democratic side. I did get the sense that they they they didn't really use the time very much. I didn't think to any new details to our overall understanding of the Russian story or Trump overall. I'm not sure that I think Cohen calling his former boss racists. And a conman cheater was interesting, but I'm the Democrats. Nestle told us much new in in the last four or five hours. Once Coen's opening statement was given what's your top line? Takeaway. Can make a non top line point. I yeah. About the BuzzFeed story because
"nate silver" Discussed on Who? Weekly
"I don't know what the overlap is between who listeners and fivethirtyeight podcast listeners. But I'm sure you've got other calls about their cold open latest podcast. I'm just wondering if you agree with their now. Sis is Bernie Sanders. The only them of the democrat Democratic Party nominee candidates so far. All right. Thanks so much good for. So the overlap is a bigger than I expected I'll say that the anecdotal evidence that we can let a tweet saying. I just heard you on the fivethirtyeight podcast weird. But who knows how many maybe that was only like six people. But everyone who heard it was like weird. But then like your the one hearing it so late. Clearly, it's not that weird. Like, you listen to both listen about you, are you are in the middle of Ben diagram. It really weird ven diagram political pockets wants us our genius framework to help them figure out the election. Then you know, what who am I to judge? I'm not using that framework to judge the the, you know the election. But either I think he the only them I think so right. It's so tough because it's like Coppola Harris, California them, you know, right? And also like within if you pay attention to politics, you see the same names over and over again. So you do know who they are. But like precision Brin, maybe I think sure like until easy answer. Yes. He's the only man because he's done this before. And he. Nearly was the nominee last time. But I hate talking about politics. I hate I see to get like mad. But I guess it is just like for their purposes. He's the I like big deal big name to jump on. That's not somebody. Who is you know? I guess it's like has this person run from president before or are they famous right? Like, Trump wasn't a hu when he jumped on the I mean, he was a who in many ways, but people had heard of him when he when he ran. So that's kind of what I think they're trying to say or what are we trying to say or they join. I don't know why it's still very funny that what did Nate silver say whenever he was like, that's cool. He said, that's cool. The concept of who weekly is that there's a dichotomy in public life between who's and them's a who is aiming naming like who is that. Then as you hit. You're like oh that the divide between celebrity and celebrity. That's fun thing. Nate silver, Nate, silver who made over to. Sorry, Nate Bigalow who Harvey. He just colon regarding Carole Radziwill. So her husband actually died of cancer. I think weeks after urine Caroline who she says where their best friends as they got on the plane crash. And when Carol was on how Henry show channeled. Caroline beset was like I'm getting a reference to an individual who died really tragically young Intel's like oh my God. Oh, God allow and then he literally described Caroline basic xactly. She was just griping any proud or article about her ever and online have to watch it because Carol's talking head of the ended just too much, and I love that. Instead of channel, you know, her deceased husband, he channels her much more Ronan and best friend, also Jackie soul or Stuttle from. Okay. Good form. Both I stole aerosol noises. It's really funny. Yeah. Also, I love that. You're so right. The ghost that appeared on Tyler Horry's sorry on Tyler Henry's not at all fake show about ghosts. Was the ghost to get the better TV ratings? The ghosts to get better TV ratings. What is that ghost? The Caroline beset. Kennedy ghosts, not be her dead ex husband ghost. No one wants to hear from Radziwill people want to hear from you know, Caroline do. We want to play the next goal, you're I'm not touching that. I wanna I still want. I want to leave out too. Well, I mostly just obsessed that like Jackie stole Aristotle. This next. Call really gets into it, hyper is our Runtime. You just about wrestles death on the show and smart outta that more power to that. I love all things indicating family. I think everything's fascinating..
"nate silver" Discussed on The Axe Files with David Axelrod
"The axe files with your host, David Axelrod. Who is Nate silver? And why does everybody in politics care so much about what he thinks? Well, it has to do with the fact that over the last ten years he's been one of the most accurate forecasters data analysts writing and speaking about politics, he came by the university of Chicago last week, his alma mater to talk about data, and politics and sports, and I sat down with him to talk about how he ended up being who he is. Nate silver, a living legend, it's great to be across the table from you and welcome back to the university of Chicago. Where all began I am a UC graduate. I'm still a huge fan of of the city of Chicago. You know, I've been in New York for like almost ten years now, and it's like a little bit of a weird interval when you come back to a city, it's kinda place Chicago university of Chicago. And then lived Chicago afterwards. Like kind of where I came of age, basically. Yeah. So it's a little bit. Like, you kind of get this like rush of like memories and emotions and like now, you kinda see the city Moore's outside or even though it was kind of your home city. So, but it is always great to. So I have the reverse I grew up in New York. Yeah. And go back there, and I have all these warm memories. But I do feel like a like visceral tell you I came out to Chicago to go the inverse, Chicago and thought this is sleepy little town. Yeah. Yeah. Coming from New York. But now. Now, I'm a thoroughgoing Chicago. And so I can give you the whole chapter numbers case for Chicago over New York. So now that all my relatives are gone from there anyway. But that's not where you started. You started in east Lansing Michigan. Tell me about that. Tell me about your folks. Yes. And my dad is a political science professor. And so I guess it's very on brand for me to have have gotten into politics and covering politics. Was he and impure or what what was what was his how he was? Originally, Sylvia talent when there was a Soviet Union. And what he would do actually look at lot at Soviet demographic data which sounds like it's boring, but it's not because a lot of it was fake. It's like China now or something as he trying to figure out like what's the real story behind abortion rates birth rates or death rates or GDP or whatnot in Russia and somebody I should say when the government is trying to look good and is trying to fudge the numbers, basically. So he worked with data and statistics. So this is not like a this wasn't a surprise that you should gravitate that. I mean, he encouraged me to to major in economics if it was going to pick pick something in in this arena, generally because it is especially you see very quantitative in very rigorous not at the other disciplines, aren't so I don't all that often listened to my parents by did this time and majored in economics at the university of Chicago. But for sure I mean, I've always, you know, part of my fascination with with baseball sports also comes from the fact that like they're lied numbers, obviously to analyze baseball and basketball particular those, and so and so yes, it all it all kind of makes sense in. I I wanna talk to you about that in a minute being a fellow sports. Fanatic, your mom in my noted says, she's a she was a community activist. Yeah. So what what what not manifest itself, it meant that she would attend a lot of city council meetings organized campaigns to to instill more like stop signs and things like that. Right. Which always used to annoy me as a cat. We're driving around on the stop sign with Rex make things slower. But I'm sure you mind when it stopped many accidents and save lives, and ultimately and so on and so forth..
"nate silver" Discussed on The Ben Shapiro Show
"So the same left that is deeply deeply concerned with free speech issues. We'll get to that. In a second is also cheering this blacklist that is now being used against Tucker Carlson. It's been used against everybody on the right, really everybody. They tried to Rush Limbaugh. They've tried to get Michael Savage. They tried against Mark Levin. They've tried against Sean Hannity. They will always try against people on the right and left. Cheers on. It's amazing to watch people at CNN or in the same boat as people as they may not know it because the right is more polite about this stuff because the right doesn't generally try to pretend that we're going to boycott advertisers. But the people at CNN are more than happy to watch their opponents boycott. I mean, it's just been dick crap. I I have to handsome credit here too. Nate silver Nate silver came out yesterday. And he said, listen, I don't like these tactics. I think these tactics are very bad, which is amazing because Nate silver is definitely on left. He says here's what here's what he said. There was an article by Jack Shafer over at politico, then Jefferson, I don't like the organized advertiser boycotts against Bill O'Reilly. I don't like the ones. Against Tucker Carlson and Nate silver, the leftist commentator and five thirty eight and elections analyst hero, Jack is right. The logical end points of deeming advertisers to have endorsed the political messages of the shows. They run ads on is that only milk toasts both sides with a pro corporate Ben will be advertising supported if any political content is ad supported at all this. Exactly, right because advertisers, will just go to the New York Times daily, which is considered safe content as opposed to anything with mild controversy associated with it. Not even like, somebody says something terrible, but mild controversy then again, do norm Ornstein Robak. I disagree. This is not a boycott because of political viewpoint. No calls for boycott of Hannity. This is set up boycotts because of disgusting personal behavior and discussing racism, very different and silver said who he's a leftist from memory. I tend to agree that Tucker is racist or that he convincingly plays a racist on TV. However, I don't want the PR department of Applebee's deciding for us, all what's racist versus legitimate acceptable, political speech, and then somebody else responded to Nate silver and said, but they're not really deciding that. Sooners are using capitalism as a lever to force them to make a choice. I don't particularly care whether PR departments agree or not. They're just responding to market pressures. Nate silver said, so they don't have to vet the merit of the claims at all anytime vocal minority of consumers organizes, a boycott, the advertisers. Just pull itself off the show that seems like a bad equilibrium and one that can and will be gained by people who politics don't match yours. And then the best part of this is sleeping giants were just terrible people. They wrote back to Nate silver. And they they basically accused him of being a corporate show. They said you're speaking as a publisher not a citizen if your person of color or a member of the LGBTQ community or an immigrant. These companies are literally footing the Bill for you to be vilified every week bigotry should not be deemed political. That's a big part of the issue and civil Robak guys. I'm gay, and I'm just old enough forty tra- member when a conservative groups, urged boycotts of advertisers networks who are seen as promoting TQ or other non traditional lifestyles this strongly influences, my views on the subject, this is exactly right. So good for Nate silver. That's exactly right. We need more folks on the left to acknowledge this basic truth or. We're going to end up in a position where advertisers pull out of all political contents, and the only political content you're going to be able to find is going to be left wing political contents, which of course, is the entire goal of this spiel from the very beginning at the outset. This was this is always the goal. Meanwhile, have left pretends that they care deeply about free speech. So they're very very upset with what they call anti PD S laws..
"nate silver" Discussed on Jesse, Jordan, GO!
"Radio sweethearts Morris Boyd tech. And hi, this is Chris gathered aka head Headley. That's fun. That was another one another one from the youth. You don't what Headley was more vice school era? One head had a little more. I was old enough to enjoy that one. All right. All right. It's pretty it's pretty good. It was more. My friends Razan me that one. I mean, Chris, let's take a look at the facts here. Never won a handsome, man. I don't know if I agree with that. But thank you number two. You've you've gotta fun wife. Incredible wife credible wife that is a big boat. That's that's a good check Mark in the positive column. Number three. I think we can project. Current projections suggest I just looked at five thirty eight dot com. Okay. Current projections suggest that your dad loves you. Well, Nate silver, really has sort of famously. Now. My dad is the best. Yeah. I know. I know for a fact my dad loves me just won't side off on it. Number four, your success in show business. Chris there's no doubt about it. You've had television programs television specials successful books. You have a two comic memoirs one of which is going to help a lot of people. It's weird. It's funny because I recognize that. But it's it's it's one of those situations where the more things I do the more. I realized that accomplishments don't solve your insecurities and your problems, you know, I still feel although I can admit now that I'm a success. I'm no longer the the I realized that it was a little disrespectful for me to keep pushing the idea that I am an underdog. I had to move on from that. Jason Manjoo Casse pulled me aside. It was like this underdog thing people. Yeah. Yeah. HBO special dunk rate talk from men suitcase gives it to. To be let's focus on what's important wearing the same clothes every day. And really cultivating. The perfect crazy is tick. Yes. And and just a real aggressive style of yellow. Aggressive yelling. I just a couple a few weeks ago watched the. Now, legendary episode of your television program the Cris coauthored show where meant to and sheer, and you there is a dumpster onstage with something inside it. Yeah. And the theme of the episode is trying them trying to guess what is inside the dumpster? Thank you for watching proud of that don't I would say don't. Because this is this is up on you can watch it on your. Yeah. And it is it's just one of the most delightful episodes of television you could ever enjoy. Thank you. It is truly magical. I watched it with my wife. My wife doesn't know from Chris gathered. I mean, she doesn't have a problem with a lot of people don't Chris gathered, a lovely guy, and she could shoot probably tell you what you walked onstage and showed some of your ad lib charm. But she doesn't she's not. She's not a fan. What is the point? Yeah. But she sat down with me to end with you called him. Kicking this dude? Due to down with me. And we, yuck. It up for this solid. Forty minutes of television. It was a joy. So I recommend if anybody out there is not sure about good. They don't know Chris gathered from a hole in the ground buying again. That's a great place to start a many people know you from a whole it's a great place to start. Thank you. Yeah. I'm proud of it. It's funny because the show got cancelled, and it was definitely time. And I'm not upset about it was not always a perfect show. And it was often often missed that was part of the that we are willing to let it be bad sometimes, but I will say that that episode. I'm like I did make that I did always have that. And you know, Seth Meyers is very nice and said, it was the best episode television. He saw that year and mental out to me, and it's a cult classic and proud of it good-looking sexual dynamo. Yeah. Definitely. Wrestling. Okay. I'm a blue belt. It's not. It's the second at white. It ain't white white white. Yeah..
"nate silver" Discussed on Rob Has a Podcast
"But it certainly is by no means guarantee AJ high. So you tweeting about that sixteen one upset to Nate silver this morning. Yeah. Nate silver gets a lot of criticism because people don't understand math. And when you know, he says, somebody has an eighty percent chance of winning an election. Just because they lose doesn't mean. He was wrong. It could have been upset. And I think people don't necessarily understand percentages like that. Okay. All right. And I know in the fantasy sports industry, you also get a lot of that where hey, you said this guy was going to do good. What happened? Yeah. You get that you get a guy who scores twenty points in a week, and that could be good and be number one one week. But this is the week where everybody scored so he ended up being the twentieth friend quarterback this week. And you say you idiot you he finished twentieth. Yeah. But we said, it's twenty points. No, no. You said he'd be the best. You got a lot of people who live and die by this stuff. It's it's it's just fantasy sports people. Okay. All right AJ. So we are going to go through your archetypes. And then we are going to continue this tradition where we're going to do our draft where you and I are going to draft our teams of six people each one person will go to ghost island and not be drafted. And then we will have our results tallied at the end of the season to keep up that tradition as well. Okay. So thirteen archetypes coming up AJ will reveal them in the order of life. Likelihood that the archetype will win the game not necessarily the player and AJ will also set up what each of the archetypes are as we go along. I'll tell it's like a plan. Okay. AJ? What do you recommend people? Do that people. I think sometimes will write their own archetypes. They I know who the fresh meat is going to be. I know who the ninja is and they like the play along. Do you want to see what people are doing also or they can just go ahead and file these their their own archetypes someplace where you never see it. No, I'm absolutely happy to discuss at Twitter at AJ bass, happy to discuss it. You know, the the theory is mine the rankings that I'm going to give here today, or the, you know, the assignments are mine, I'm not wrong, because it's my opinion, you can have a different opinion. And that's fine. This is just another way of looking at the game. It's supposed to enhance your enjoyment. Not you know, they're so boring archetype here. So no one should really be all that upset. Yes. Okay. Well, of course, being called boring is the reason the biggest reason anybody should ever get upset. Right. Absolutely. That's right. Okay. We learned that lesson the hard way age. I okay. So here we are with thirteen archetypes. What is the thirteenth most likely archetype to win the game? All right. The the one that is least likely to win the game is as you said fresh meat. Meat and fresh meat is essentially the one person left in the cast certainly at the beginning of the season. There are lots of candidates fresh meat, and they usually will get picked off several of them because these are the people you just wonder why did they bother applying? Why did they bother getting on the plane? What were they doing out there in the extreme case fresh meat has no idea what they're doing? They've never seen the game. You know, they just clueless. Yes. AJ maybe as as we go along here. I could give the archetypes in the survivor rotten coconuts fantasy football league of who fits of this archetype in the survivor fantasy football league that I plan. Oh, fair enough. Go for it. Although there's only just people don't criticize my new friend Dalton Ross though. No, I already know who he is. Okay. All right. So yes. So the fresh meat is that they seem to be maybe out of their depth or just by comparison. I mean, if everybody is you know in if we're talking about an all star season. Everyone's you know, played into the final three near the one person who just barely made the merge, then you're going to be fresh meat just by basis of that. So it doesn't necessarily mean that you're a bad player..
"nate silver" Discussed on Yeah, But Still
"Say to the last segment in there. And I just wanted to say like our lives to be really simple. We used to enjoy yourselves watching the wedding singer. We watch the Bryan singer. Yes. Yes. To anyone go to Times Square like all New Yorkers love to do. And just say that to somebody. I think together we can end pizza gate. Let's yeah. Let's have a moment of silence for pizza real cook. Let's all Donald Trump. Let's put our hands together. Let's do this. Yes. Yes. Silence. I'm it's a silent blows. All right. We're good. All right. Let's do just like I I was imagining applause was supposed to do. Plotting in my head. If you don't know how to applaud soundly vote. That is true. We're doing we're doing an election night pod coming up, which is in hindsight. A bad decision. Yeah. That's one of the decision. You know, you guys are going to sell their. But it just going to be like every guy's gonna take off his work three-quarters bolo put on his casual one he's going to be looking at the New York Times warned commuter all night. Interrupt you and be like, oh, no Trevor Babcock is lose. Goodness, suck dude. You're gonna have a bad time. Imagine that like nobody going to that show is expecting updates. Because like, what am I going to be on like real clear politics on the side? And it'd be like, oh, guys. Well, looking bad over in Vermont bring anyway, how Ben Shapiro has sex. Probably. Let's yeah, we bring on Nate silver, just name Nate silver. But it's just. Yeah. Just like boobs. Probably dude it's fucked in our country. I'm pretty sure you ask me politics is like choosing between shit asshole folks in which. Wow. This guy's weight dumber in real life. I mean, that's what. Yeah. Yeah. Let's see the Joe Rogan experience. It's just like he brings people on dude. Politics is fucked up man, dude. They're just like, yeah. I'm high. Yeah. Sometimes I feel bad for just being a dumb poster on the talks about garbage. But then I'm like, I'm at least glad I'm not a person that just post the news. But then like at the end there. It's like, yeah, we're fucked dude like this is all fucked. Just like, oh, just quote, just this is not normal. Yeah. Yeah. I lo-. That's no, I'm no. But I'm like, I'm I'm a little more noble because you know, I'm not I'm not just a podcast. I'm also a stand up comedian. And you know, oh, you're the guys I've seen plenty accounts. Stab on Twitter. Hey, my in funny accounts. No, no, funny accounts is all guys named Gavin. Steve who have one hundred fifty thousand followers and right for late night show, and they're under phony post. It took a thousand days for this ball of hatred and misogyny. Yes, redefine our definition of truth fucking vote. It's like, wow, I'm laughing. I love hitting the search tab, and then it's funny accounts. And it's just like Johnny son being like remember to drink water. Whoa. This is a funny account. Like, it's like that's like, that's what fucking sucks about Twitter's. You hit you hit the search tab to just search whatever dumb shit or whatever. And then it's all just like you just like inundated with like news that you don't care about where it's just like, it's just whatever the last thing Davidson ditch. Yeah. Just like want to search something. And it's just like Pete Davidson worry supreme shirt. Yeah. Let's hard there. Because it'll be like thirty people die in like arson fire by a white supremacist and then like right below. It will be like Arianna Guerande throws shade with her new..
"nate silver" Discussed on WDRC
"A prospects. You know, other headlines reading up. In fact, I was reading drudge earlier the other headlines were favoring Democrats. Let me see a silver eighty-five percent Dem's now take the house. Well, you know. Okay. So that's Nate silver's rise thirty eight cook cook, Charlie cook, eight Morehouse, you know, a racist. Sorry, again, it's depending on and you were and it may be it may be too complicated to to go through on the air. But you were telling me before about when you look at five thirty eight. Yeah. The Nate silver website, and and sating an stadium. Wait a minute. And you were you were talking about one district, and you said all they're doing is looking at the population. Well, they look at the population, and they look at their expectation. Their forecast of you know, this is the the websites forecast of how many people in that district are gonna vote. It was Texas thirty two Pete sessions, and then based on you know, again, the leaning of that the makeup of voter makeup of that district, which is nine points in favor of the Republican. And then they go to the poll and the most recent poll goes back a long time. I mean, it's it's pre- Cavin on. I think it's mid September September thirteenth or something. And again, but what they're what they're trying to what they're trying to give some certainty to and and again, it will be proven on election day, whether he was right or not, right? But what you're trying to do is in a very uncertain time. With variables that have not existed that I. I have not seen in a midterm, right? Right. That I've not seen since I've been covering politics really the late eighties. Yeah. Which is really Cavanaugh and the uniqueness of Trump. I think you throw everything out the water because what the pollsters are attempting to figure out is not where people stand, you know, not not, but who is more excited, and you know, you quoted to me on on that particular district the number of people they say are gonna come out and vote, and I'm thinking to myself, that's a complete guess, how do they know? How do you measure? And and this is the the hardest thing here when you're talking about these house races. His how do you measure, you can look at presidential elections, and you can have an idea based on other presidential elections. All right. How many people might come out and vote, you know, in this particular of a election. But when you start talking about these particular districts and the uniqueness. Number one of the whole cavenaugh hearings, which I think is unprecedented as a late September surprise, right? Is just un- unprecedented. And Trump himself is an unprecedented. President and has broken all the rules of trying to figure out what's going to happen. Right. You know in in a in a race. I just I don't see the certainty that they claim to be making. I know where they come out with right certainty that or or anybody's buying the certainty that their attempt because I would still say, and again, I'm not a pollster, and I don't have my own methodology. And by the way, I give a lot of credibility to five thirty eight on many things in terms of Allegra election coverage and things they've done in the past. It's just that. I don't know that you can blend all of these formulas, which they have to make their own essentially proprietary blend of a prediction models. I don't know how you know again. I would love to sit down with them and say, okay, tell me why you believe this works, and why this is a better model they may be right on now. Again, this is about the overall, you know, eighty-five. Five percent chance that Democrats will win the house. That's an overall that. They will get right. You know, at least, you know, to you know, that magic number and and have more than more seats ultimately down the Republicans, and that could be the case. But I here's what I question is. We're not seeing recent polls even in some of those high profile Senate races like Ted Cruz, and and and battle Rourke. I mean, you have to go back. It's it's been a week. I would think you would have another poll that would have come out, you know, word to Wednesday morning, and maybe we'll see one today or tomorrow. But I would I would like to see one for you know, for measuring this. I think if you're going to get into accuracy and get closer to accuracy, I would expect to see one every few days. On the house races. I mean, it becomes on some of these races. You got it's it's impossible because you go. It's all pre cavenaugh all pre caravan it.
"nate silver" Discussed on SuperTalk WTN 99.7
"Four five I like to. I like to empty the entire magazine on your folks. I don't I don't want any story that we have on show prep to go until and this one I got to tell you about this is a New York City, the New York police Burma, boss. This woman is a boss of Brooklyn precinct is a picture of her too. She's standing there with a nice little semi skimpy dress with a strap, you know, strapped dress, and then got her piece her holster on God, she's bad. Anyway. She's under investigation for allegedly stuffing a pair of her panties into a male colleagues. Mouth. He says. Well, what happened was sergeant and Maria or Marie gray era. Second in command of the seventy second precinct detective squad flipped out. According to the New York Post when detective Victor falcon complained about her leaving her underwear all over the unisex locker room there. FM plane she's alleged to upset and then shoved a pair of her panties and the falcons mouth, so. Wouldn't you want to work for her? Bud in Pensacola, you're up next, bud. How are you? Hey, Phil fan you since you. Yeah. This is cousin bud. Just like it. You do. Good. I'm glad to be here. I'm doing very well. I was just thinking if if Trump would just closed all border crossings for about probably wouldn't take twenty four hours. The mail going to Mexico money didn't blow through. Yeah. With the remittances coming with the money coming back from the United States, and Mexico that do it wouldn't it? Right. And then you shut the actual crossings down where the drug dealers can get their goods cross. There's so much. He could do. And that's what I'm thinking. But he's probably sitting around with his. With his vast staff, and his stamps, vast the mind, and this ain't going look what are our options now. And and these are there are many options there are so many things you can do diplomatically even before these folks get the border. I think they're trying to exhaust all that. But if all else fails, they're going to have to put some sort of military presence there to keep these folks are just streaming across the border. Thousand people. They may have helped from mother nature to there's a category. Five hurricane hit across there too. That makes that may solve the problem right there. Drench them out. Right, but good to hear from you pal. We have much family in on my wife's side. Great guy to Heather. Well, this is not. Okay. Heather you're up next. Could be Heather and bud. I dunno Heather, how are you? Oh, I'm doing great. You know, this whole caravan. Have they forgotten what got Trump elected it? What's the wall? Yeah. You go energizing his base. I mean, energizing it more than ever to look at all the people that are lining up for his rallies in for his campaign. What the one in Texas today? I think there's you know, people lining up outside they're having to put TV screens out there. This is energizing the base he ran on while he won on the wall. Just bro. This in our base right now in front of the election. It's gonna just put him over the top. Let's get on Trump. Yeah. Exam telling you, these these rallies, it's like two thousand sixteen all over again, except I think the crowds even bigger. I'm looking at them lining up in Houston. Covering the Houston Trump. This is Raymond Aurora Arroyo thousands outside and the venue is filling up. We'll file a report on the Ingram angle on Fox News tonight. Nate silver. Who is the big lib? But it keeps track of this. Poland stuff. He says weird day of Senate polls. I'd say more bad than good though for Democrats why? Because Democrats need everything to go right at this point. So good numbers in Florida and West Virginia. Don't offset the bad ones in North Dakota in Indiana. They need to win almost all of the competitive races. This is from five thirty eight. You're real clear politics does is to what I like about five thirty eight. And I know Nate silver is a big live. But they just I mean, they post the polling stuff, but what they do is. They rank the polls they give them a letter grade based on their track record of being accurate. For example. You got the Saint Pete poll, they give a b minus. And you got survey USA that they give an a Quinnipiac gets an a minus and on down this on message incorporating at a c plus so you look at these unique. Okay. Which ones have the track record? And which one, you know, which ones don't so you got now, this is strategic research associates. This is North Dakota. This is Kramer versus Heidi. Heitkamp Kramer's up sixteen the Republicans up sixteen you've got an a rated survey USA, and this is in Florida and they've got Nelson in that race against Rick Scott Nelson's up eight, but then you've got the Saint Pete polls. Which is a b minus poll they've got it even so I don't know whether one, but then you got on message Inc. Was a c plus poll. They got Scott up by five. So who knows what's real? I don't know. But he's looking at this and going somehow he's looking at all this insane. It doesn't bode well for the Democrats because they got to win them. All. Now, we're looking at one from strategic research associates, and they don't rank them a letter grade. I don't know they're not been around long enough. But they got Joe Manchin up by sixteen points in that state. I'm looking at some of the elements. All right. There's a b minus poll Shroff, Elden and associates. They've got Rick Scott up in Florida by two. So it's all over the lot. It just depends on who you believe an a minus CNN poll has Nelson up by five. But then there's an eight CNN folded has them up by four and they all take into same days. October sixteenth of the twenty. It doesn't make any sense. I'm just telling his all I know. This sounds elementary all will boil down to how many how many people turn out, and that's weird. The NBC analysis if it's accurate. May give you some. May give you some hope because they say in seven of the eight battleground states, the you know, the must win Senate races. The Republicans are outpacing the Democrats in early voting in most of the states by ten points. And Tennessee, it's by almost thirty points. Well, that's early voting and that's just early voting so far. And so you can't get completely go. I'm just telling you, I don't here's the thing. I don't understand. Why people don't vote? It's a relatively easy thing to do especially with early voting. You've got so many days to do. I think it just it's one of those things that it slips your mind. So maybe what you need to be doing is just reminding people, you know, you run into voted. Oh, man. I forgot about them you early voting. Go. Do it man. Go do it on the way home from work. Go do it before you go to work go, you know, whatever. Because if you wait and election day, and you go oh, man. I was gonna vote at lunch. And I forgot about I think that's what happens with a lot of folks that they just forget about it. I saw somebody interviewing. I don't know somebody who who's a democrat voters some young some young woman, and they were asking she says it's like so inconvenient. I'm going. Well, I like it is for more of the Democrats are the like so inconvenient. Mark in Florida. You're up next. The Phil Valentine show, Mark. How are you? Hey, great, fill eight getting back to Booker guy wants to give fifty thousand start up money to young people. Here's an idea. We'll give you fifty thousand dollars voucher for an American made car you go out and get a second. Look kmart. Hurricane market and people say, well, that's that's four steer league. No you're talking about hurricane. Mark said, look, we give them. I can't remember what he came up with at the time three thousand bucks for anybody. Who's on welfare now who who's had a bunch of children already, and they don't want any more to they you know, they say, they don't want any more children, but three thousand bucks cash if you have your tubes tied or or the guys have a Secta me. And you get the money's not forced. And I brought that out of the my God, I roll that out on one show many years ago and the liberals just went nuts like I was a Nazi when they get older and a little more responsible go reverse on your own. Well, there you go. Yeah. I know it's amazing ninety percent less abortions. Funny, but you know. It makes better fixing. Yeah. Because what you got look this is. Well, I I told this story. I mean, I've had about set for me. 'cause I had three kids. That's all we wanted. I mean, there's nothing wrong with it. Now, if somebody had paid me to have that you think that that would have been like four sterilization, no shoot. Somebody would pay me out have done it earlier. Don't tell my third kid. I'm just kidding. But the point being it. Oh, by the way. My doctor was doctor Concepcion. I swear to God. He's no longer. He's no longer pray. I think he's doing research. Now, I used to refer to them as no low Concepcion. But yeah, that was that was the doctor's name doctor Concepcion anyway. There is nothing sinister or or diabolical about going to somebody who is a serial, Dan. You know? This guy's got. He's got kids from four or five different women saying, hey, man. What would it take? How much do we need to pay you to stop doing this? I mean, you can continue sleeping with these women. But you're you're, you know, they're having children how much would it run name a price? How about ten thousand dollars perfect? You talking about the money. You would save from this guy. And and this is what happens. Well, they call it. Daddy, baby. You know, how many they got four or five, and this is not a black thing, folks. This is just this is a welfare thing blacks, whites Hispanics, Asians, people are on welfare, and they have a bunch of kids because they get more money per kid, which is a perverse incentive. Isn't it? So it's it's an interesting concept and you hurricane Mark came out with that good grief in the eighties. I guess and I was talking about on the radio in the nineties or low later. Oh my gosh. When I first brought that up on the radio the liberals. I mean, the the hate that came like, I was a Nazi. Nobody's forcing anybody to do anything. It just makes sense. These are the folks who were having too many children that they can't take care of wouldn't it make sense that they they had a vasectomy? Oh, here's where my friends. Text me said the two thirty today, they could not find a parking place at they're voting precinct. Their friend tried to vote in another voting precinct down the road. He said there were seventy five people waiting in line. I don't know if they're saying that the turn out in Tennessee is sixty three percent. It's Republicans to about thirty percent for the Democrats. When you see those types of numbers that does not look good for the Democrats. So we'll see again I voted last Thursday took me five minutes five minutes. Yeah. You must be one of those liberal precincts. That must be the Democrats aren't showing up in your. Could see when you live in one? That's that's every Republican..
"nate silver" Discussed on The Ezra Klein Show
"So the classic book that I was talking to people is thinking fast and slow by Daniel common who just it's the best tour. I think of of kind of cognitive bias sees and the various ways in which we're looking at data or complex problems that our initial instincts can deceive us. So that book I would. Recommend. So I recently read the book bad blood, which was about their nose and Elizabeth homes by John and my second straight John, Kerry you have you had him on the pike? I haven't, but but the book is great. The book is great. And like just the the degree of fraud that was occurring here and how many people were involved in it. I mean, it's, you know, and thinking about the the writing, it's very modest and steer almost newspaper pros, right? He's not embellishing a lot. And so he's kind of letting the actions speak for themselves. They got sold to be a documentary or movie. And so I'm sure that will be like a mortar Matic version of it, but it's like very straight, laced reporting, that kind of just let this crazy story speak for itself a little bit, the Olympic that kind of worked myself through like about ten pages at a time. And it's been going on for like a year or two because it's like really, really dense is this book superintendence, which was in two thousand fourteen by Nick Bostrom, who at university of Oxford and it's a take. It's kind of both mathematical and philosophical about. Artificial intelligence and what that really means. And frankly, reasons why we should be pretty worried about, are you persuaded to be worried? I am, yeah. And it's dense because a lot of it's both technical frankly, and it's kind of scary and so like, but yeah, you know, I would love to, you know, if we eventually get a slow period for politics, then I would love to myself kind of more time to thinking about what are official intelligence isn't what it means, but super intelligent book that not an easy read by any means, but like it's an important recommend. Nate silver. Thank you very much. Thank you. Okay, not. So thank you as always my producer burger. My engineer Griffin Hanner. Thank you for being here a one way to help the show and go give it a review on itunes or purview get your podcast, but but I tunes his help hold. The itunes has this weird algorithm where things get a lot of us. They go up in the feature less and then people can discover the show more easily. So if you're enjoying this, you can take five minutes and give us a quick rating on tunes on apple podcasts. It would be very, very helpful. Thank you for being here as always an, we'll be back on Thursday. I am thrilled to tell you about another podcast, and I think you'll joy. It's vox media's award winning podcast. Why'd you push that button by the verge? If you're not familiar, it's a show up at the ways.
"nate silver" Discussed on 106.1 FM WTKK
"Journalism just laziness is the name of the game in addition. To everything else But it's. There to know so ally continues. To be reported Nate silver since I. Mentioned it let's go listen to it we have about three bites here this is last night fivethirtyeight website. Politics podcast. Gaylon drew asking the editor in chief Nate silver about his forecast for the, two thousand eighteen midterms the question what odds does your forecast show for control of. The house in. This. Election it gives Democrats that three in four chance of winning the house Hillary Clinton's own it's. Very similar actually part of the reason we're, we're saying like three and four, and one in four for, Republicans if you play out this universe four times, they. Once on average basis information we have now situations bad but it's not so bad as to. Be hopeless hopeless it'd be like one in five hundred and they have like entirely reasonable shot at their, voters, turn out and the political environment becomes a. Little bit more favorable for Republicans between now and November and Democrats just lose. Of the tossups based on local factors it's not far fetched to think that, rubbings could hold the house, with that said you would rather be in Democrats, position. Okay now so what good is the seventy five percent chance the Democrats win if you then. Say it's not far fetched to think the Republicans can hold the house Out of those two go together seventy five percent. I'll tell you because they said the same thing about Hillary winning and look what happened They're now not trusting their data and the reason. They're not trusting their data is because they still don't know the. Trump voter they still haven't taken, time to figure. Out who you are they haven't taken the time to figure out what matters. To you They're still judging you and finding you as incompetent boobs But just like the, popadopoulos truth who. You are is there to be learned but they don't So seventy five percent. Chance that becomes the headline that's the big story, but the guy responsible for, it then whispers Yeah but. You know it's not far fetched and. Things are Republicans. Could hold the, house now for what. It's worth Dick Morris thanks, to Republicans are gonna hold house I'll go through. What is is is I saved it I had it for yesterday but. I didn't get to it and I saved it will. Go through that at some point for? The program ends today so the questioner here with Nate silver. Gaylon drew so so how should people look at this. I mean seventy five percent chance? Of Democrats take the house we have two and, a half months until the election how should people be looking again I, don't know any other way to put it but between the various ways in which the forecast could be off only it could. Be things, like different in November than it does now really nother way could be off as a pulse are off you know. Couple, of points, of Republicans being there polls could Aben very similar to two thousand sixteen really narrow win for them well you know it sounds like, this guy saying what I. Say a poll in. August doesn't tell you, much about what's going to happen in November It's still entirely possible that? The event or events that shaped the election in November haven't. Even happened yet it's still entirely possible do not doubt. Me on this now having said? That let me hedge my bets democrat turnout in, some of these blue states is off the charts FOX it's undeniable and, I would not be doing my my my just job here with you if I were not to mention this in Minnesota I. Took the, democrat farm labor state big Democrats day but the turn out there I mean it was I think the Democrats turned. Out, twice as, many people the idea that they're they're ticked off they're motivated and so forth that happened to look like the case in in Minnesota Those are. Primary elections and so forth and not cross party elections Did. A different turnout. Nevertheless but still these guys are hedging their bets they are not they are not what we. Call cock short at the Democrats are going to take the house When, they have to put their name and reputation. On the line. Notice all the hedging here now Kevin bacon the actor is married to the actress curious Sedgwick Keira Sedgwick big claim to fame was a was a. Show on TNT called, the closer which when, she retired from it then became major crimes and Kevin bacon will actor and, has a as a. Band is over then they are big Upper West side leftists which always disappoints me. To find out about that. People, whose work. I like I can't help it it, just, does I mean Karen secure, Sedgwick and and the closer was brilliant just fabulous I mean I've never heard, anybody able to maintain. A perfect Georgian Southern accent For eight seasons and she's she's not from anywhere. Near Georgia, I mean it just flawless Is that. What you learn these people are wacko left us at just disappoint anyway they're all concerned and while Nate, silver is out there. Saying a seventy five, percent, chance, in the, in the media saying, big Blue Wave coming it's in the bag Kevin bacon and curious Sedgwick have released video. Begging liberals in. Blue states to go volunteer in places where midterm seats are at stake you're like me you're wondering what. You can do.
West Virginia Election: We'll never know if the 'Blankenship surge' was real
"On those days where everything i've got here i want to start with and i don't know what to start with i haven't decided what i'm going to start with so i think i'm going to combine them all into one of a headline here's what's coming up because pretty much everything i've got here is worthy of lean status so just remember as you're listening today folks i can't get to everything in the first segment and i may not be able to get every well i know i'm not going to be able to ever do everything in the in the first hour so be patient here's a telephone number eight hundred two eight two two eight eight two the email address elrushbo at net dot us what happened don blankenship what happened to this guy in west virginia the polling data told us this guy was gonna do great that it was trump than trump that's what he was saying about himself and the drive bys and everybody was telling us that this blankenship guy he was going to run away with it because this is what voters think trump is and then trump goes out there and endorses everybody but blankenship blankenship barely shows up when the election returns or in he was not even a factor and here's our old buddy nate silver at five thirty eight internal poll supposedly showing blankenship surging may have been b s all along and driven a false narrative about the way you think you think somebody might have been making this up the network pollsters the polling units and the drive by media carrying the message forward you think it might have been fake tell me this how much is real we have two independent media analyses now media research center continues with there's trump's negative coverage ninety one percent the annenberg center the burks the shorenstein whatever it is this is i think at university philadelphia somewhere has concluded trump's coverage is negative ninety percent.
"nate silver" Discussed on News Talk 1130 WISN
"Got jammed phone lines armand i was going to call for help filling out my nc double a tournament bracket i've got it here this is the year i have absolutely no idea which is good this means i'm going to win every bracket i enter because i'm just basically throwing darts at a dartboard here last year i followed fivethirtyeight nate silver's advice and basically filled out his bracket i got salata i think i finished dead last i'm in with my brother and my friends one of his best buddies organiz pool through espn i've fairly certain i finished dead last thanks to nate silver he did about his well picking nc double a tournament games as he did picking the presidential election of twenty sixteen i wanna take villanova to go all the way virginia just lost their sixth man their best bench players out for the tournament with a broken hand so i want to cincinnati i like cincinnati do you like cincinnati arman i thought the american was kind of weak this year they're a good team but i'm not to impress what about arizona what's that what about arizona they're the best team money can buy i like arizona and ever since the shawn miller stuff they've been kind of an i don't know playing with a chip on their shoulder that's that's my point it's like it's against the world we believe our coach was as a victim of bad reporting from espn or or whoever was reporting he was caught on the wiretaps paying a thousand one hundred thousand dollars to get their superstar de'andre eight this kid watch he is going to be an nba superstar this he's got all the tools he is what what you're you're laughing at me no no it's definitely going to be good i he'd be he'll be the number one pick yeah you don't think it'll be it'll be this luca danni sick from what is it italy working is it's not it's not going on a limited say he'll be nba star my bold prediction no i'm saying he has the potential to be like an anthony davis i like north carolina north carolina they're gonna think they're going to sustain it yeah there are another team that always seems to i like xavier more than you know what is it you like save your more than i do i guess maybe because i wash them a couple.
"nate silver" Discussed on KTLK 1130 AM
"Seventy to ninety nine percent range i have i have made the point countless times that one of the biggest problems in politics is that people believe the media republicans to they believe all his preelection stuff they believe these polls but the people on the left really they are live they live in die by nate silver folks they live and die by him and they bought it whole line sinker they went into election night thing it didn't matter no matter what else the size of trump's crowds none of it mattered because they believed all the polls they believed all this data they believed all this expertise which easterbrook is right or it's nothing but really dressed up wild guesses and that's one of the reasons that i believe now that they are deal not normal i think they still are insane and crazy they trust the media implicitly that's why when i come along and question anything about it i am public enemy number one hated in despised they trust he hits gospel new new york times is goss bowl nate silver is gospel and they got not just wrong they were promising the left that hillary wasn't just gonna win that trump was going to be so embarrassed he wasn't even show up in concede in person child our humiliating defeat was going to be well we know what happened now they think the polling will still right but the russians stole the election for missiles how this stuff has a life they will believe the absolute we are just conspiracy theories conspiracy theories because they believe that what are wild guesses are actually advanced scientific proof they invest in it totally they invest emotionally this is key they emotionally invest everything they've got it this stuff in they can't handle a consequence when they are betrayed and they're still trying to come to grips with it gets a big factor whether it's suppress voter turnout a not who knows uh i've take a break but there is much more than learning beverage stops with a membership to rush twenty four seven if you do become a member you have access to a lot of things like dittocam access to archives at the white house with the size of encyclopedia prepared to stumble left with a voluminous knowledge you'll find at rush 247.
"nate silver" Discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics
"Thrive market is like cosco meets whole foods but all online you pay just sixty dollars a year and get wholesale pricing all year long the average customer saves about forty dollars per order and thrive market guarantees you'll save more than your membership fee in your first two orders in fact they will let you test drive the savings for free before you buy your membership five market is making healthy eating easy and affordable discover for yourself i four hundred thousand members and even oprah believe in thrive market test drive it for free for thirty days and get 20 percent off at thrive market dot com slash politics that's an extra twenty percent off right now at thrive market dot com slash politics while more time thrive market not wrong alash ruler okay show or or or or or or back and it is six months into the trump administration were going to explore an alternate universe in wish hillary clinton won the presidency will remember when i was trying to do alternate universe stuff during the election at room was laughing at me here and now nate silver rates of peace and it's the most read on the website and the internet's going crazy about it that's okay we're going to talk about it nate hey so i actually what you know that i am nate silver from earth too owing this okay yes so i am here okay in your world the little weird same name that's why i'm felt leisure i mean look same everything is not earth twenty four the sister or earth forty forty forty four think we're needed here is sliding doors strangling putra much neither in no universe ever seaman nate why write this piece and why right it now so the reason i decide to share my story with you people on earth sheets that's is to give you some perspective on i guess kind of how important.