10 Burst results for "Munger buffet"
"munger buffett" Discussed on Stansberry Investor Hour
"And comments and politely worded criticisms and I read everything you guys send me and I respond to as much as I can this week. We're going to start off with a from Rudy F. And Rudy F says Dan lately. I've been able to listen to all your podcasts. And have very much enjoyed them. My question concerns defaults and bankruptcies if a debtor defaults doesn't the money lost by creditors vanish effectively shrinking. The money supply the amounts about to be lost in the oil patch. Etcetera may pale in comparison to the amount being created by OUR GOVERNMENT. But is there any balancing at all? Thanks keep up the great work rudy. F- Rudy I would say yes. There's a balancing effect. But I think what we get here is a deflationary push- pushed downward globally. We've talked about it before in the program. According to Ray Dolly there's like a five trillion dollar funding hole in the United States. And there's a five fifteen trillion dollar funding hole. He caught it in income hole. But I think it amounts to the same thing outside the United States. That's twenty trillion. That's a lot of trillions that requires a lot of printing and basically the problem is this so in the United States. We can print the money to pay debts with right so the United States especially the government can can print all the money once and pay its debts. Us dollar denominated debt. Of course we have no reason to denominate them in anything else because we're the world's reserve currency but that puts other countries in a bad spot because they want dollars to and they borrow in dollars and they can't print so you know these deflationary episodes treat them really really horribly because they have demand for dollars can't print their way out with the Hell. Do they do so a lot of debt? Winds up being destroyed and really you know if it's a little deflationary for us or even a lot. It's a lot more for them so I think that yes. There's a balancing effect but I think it's way on the other side of this and for right now it's deflation city good question. Great question and great ongoing question. I hope you rudy and others continued. Ask it because we'll need to assess it all along the way this next one is from Ben F. And Ben F is referring to my discussion. Last week of the meat industry. He says the main reason for the animal depopulation is because of how terrible the meat industry is a normal animal that is raised. Humanely would not need to be killed a certain time. The animals being killed is because they are fed in such unhealthy ways in preparation for final slaughter that they would die from eating this way soon after. Enjoy your stuff but I really wish there were no bailouts because no one is learning a lesson from this except for the same lesson we've been taught for decades that government is there to save you. What a terrible and incorrect lesson to learn we have traded freedom for security and it is UNAMERICAN. Thanks Ben F. I'm going to say I have to agree with you. Been all over the place here because I want him to comment on the on the the meat industry just spot on and I think I alluded to that before but I just you know. You can't talk about everything all the time can't cover every aspect of every topic. I should say and as far as the bailouts go I agree. It's sort of like an addict right because you you know the addict he he gets addicted. And then you know the the longest addicted and the more you take the worse it is on your body when you try to get off right and I think that's where we are. That really is where we are. We and in fact you can hear it. You can hear this in the news reports. You can hear people saying things like well you know. The government learned its lesson in two thousand eight nine. And you know you go early and you go big with bailouts and stimulus and whatever you have to do and it'll halter out okay. Because it turned out okay. This time did it but I agree. Bailouts are are problematic in this particular case. I have some sympathy. I understand the impetus people watching your fellow. Human being suffer is really horrible but the suffering was by the government intervention right so and and people say well what else could we do? We had to shut things down or the virus Blah Blah Blah. I'm not so sure I won't say I'm sure at all on either way but I'm not so sure that a total shutdown was absolutely the only possible way to do this and it's such a giant complex situation. It's hard to say but I'll just leave you there thank you. That's a that's a great question. Actually a great comment. Next IS BILL T OKAY AND BILL. T says hi. Dan Longtime Fan hero when to thank you and the rest of the stanbury gang for recommending gold over the past year or so. I'm really glad I got in when I did question. What is the name of the law slash principal slash? Tra that that the longer something has been considered a store of value. Then the more likely it will be considered a store evalu- going into the future. I seem to remember mentioning this on a podcast. One time referencing gold. I believe but I've been unable to find the name despite many Google attempts. Thanks and keep up the great work bill to what you're looking for. Bill is called the Lindy effect and it comes from. I think it comes from anti fragile by Nassim Taleb but frankly all his books run together in my mind so I don't know which one it came from really but the Lindy effect is Yeah Gold's been restored value for five thousand years therefore it is likely to be one for another five thousand doesn't mean it's guaranteed it's just likely and this is a tendency. It's not a law of nature really. It's a tendency a general principle for example the practice of bloodletting was people like opening their veins because they thought it cured them all manner of illnesses that was practiced into the nineteenth and there may even been a case in the twentieth century of it happening. But you know well into the nineteenth century and for like you know maybe a thousand or two thousand years long time so obviously. Let's say it was like two thousand years at the one thousand year mark. You know you were spot on thinking that was Lindy right bloodletting but you know eventually we kind of got past that so it's a tendency and I think it's a very good tendency to assume with gold because of its track record is a store of value very good question very good principle and it applies to other things too like you know. We've been reading the Bible for a couple thousand years so it's likely that we continue to publish read it for another couple of thousand. We've been listening to great music by. I don't know let's just say. J S Bach from the middle early middle of the eighteenth century. Therefore we will continue doing so into you know the next couple centuries right. I hope we will. I Love Balk Good Question Bill. Glad you sort of gave me a chance to refresh us on that next one. And the last one for today's by Brian L. and Brian L. S. about another principal from the seem to lead which I wrote about recently but I he says Dan. Hi. I'm a new listener to your podcast and enjoy them. Well they've been a great supplements who my workout sessions at home. Some of your tips on being bearish on the market helped. Confirm a play. I made last April Thirty S. And then he says this little trade that he did with these vix. Etf something and it made some money for him. Good glad to hear it Brian. He says I recently read your article. The number one secret of investing in life which was a stands buried digest recently and I wanted to have a deeper context of the application of via negative. As you know in stands where there's a whole lot of information for a total portfolio or alliance subscriber. And if you were to apply the via negative thought. Would you already just omit from the get? Go looking into publications that don't interest you or is it still worthwhile to dive deep and each publication than only decide later what you want to admit. I just wanted to get clarity. A confirmation on your thoughts on this. Thank you very much Brian. L. So Brian. You're never gonNa hear me tell you not to not to take stands berry advice but via negative of principle for for those who don't know it's it's the negative way it's latins the negative way and and to lab sums it up brilliantly says the learning of life is about what to avoid all and all the great investors agree here. Warren Buffett says rule. Number one is. DoN'T LOSE MONEY. Rule number two see rule number one Charlie Munger. Buffett's partner says it's amazing. How well people like us have done by. Just not being stupid rather than trying to be very clever right. Avoid being stupid and other people like Ray Dolly. Oh he said some some good via negative stuff over the years. Most people need to know when not to take bet he says and he also says you know. I know that I don't know a lot right. He's negatively defining and I think George Soros counts too when he said you know the secret of my success is that I'm wrong. I'm always wrong but I fixed my mistakes. So they're defining things negatively in general and they're they're focusing on what to avoid right and that is the via negative and it's very powerful in fact the whole scientific endeavor as I see it strongly under the influence of Karl Popper. Here is an attempt to falsify to find out what's wrong more so than what's right. It's hard to you can't ultimately once and for all find out what's right but you can. Alternately wants her off for find out what's wrong. So falsification is a very important habit to get into important skill to have and it's important for investors there are whole industries that you probably want to stay away from. It's a really useful principle in life and in investing and Brian. Whatever you choose to do whatever stands very advice you choose to avoid just know this. Every STANDS BERRY EDITOR EVERYBODY. Giving advice is published by stands. Berry they all this exercise they all want to avoid risk. They all have the negative of built into every recommendation. They they make anyway so that was really what I was trying to say with it. Not that there are certain publications. You should avoid. That's for you to decide. Every investor is different has a different style. And you have to know your personality. That's how you determine you know what to focus on what to avoid hope that's useful for you. That's all I have on that but it's but I thank you for the question. We will be talking about via negative of probably for as long as I do. This show and that is another show. That's another episode of the stands Berry Investor. Our Hope. You enjoyed it as much as I did. Do me a favor subscribe to the show and I tunes. Google play or wherever you listen to podcasts. And while you're there help us grow with a rate and a review like US Release Review Us. You can follow us on. Facebook and instagram handle is at investor. Our and if you have a guest that you'd like to hear me interview I wanNA know about it. Email us with that information at feedback at investor our dot Com.
"munger buffett" Discussed on Animal Spirits Podcast
"Right the companies who actually did the buybacks outperform the ones who did the research and development so maybe this gets back to the fact that were obsessed with shareholders and stock performance. What if more companies actually did what was less capital efficient and they quote burned money and rnd but out of a lot of failed projects that never came to fruition that led to the iphone or the airport or anything like that. What if all of these failures built on top of one another and we got some miraculously discoveries because it was being built on top of previous failures? So what if it was bad for the individual in this case the company but beneficial for society at home? But don't you think there are a lot of companies that are doing? That Amazon has failures all the time. They tried to put out a fire phone. That didn't work. Google hasn't done anything besides their search program forever. They and they throw a ton of money. You think those things are just not as well publicized because they are failures in people latch onto the success stories. I think you're one hundred percent right because I guess the way that I was talking was as if our D- doesn't exist but we've shown charts from. Mary meeker previously where Are India? Tech companies actually is through the roof so all people want to talk about our buybacks and the fact that are indeed is it happening is just completely false so maybe. I just contradict what I said five seconds ago but she also she meaning Mary Meeker had some charts over the weekend. Talking about the size of the stimulus bill compared to what we do to those nine and compared to the new deal and obviously than the new deal needs to be adjusted for inflation. But this is so much bigger so so much bigger than what we did in two thousand nine thirty in particular and it's only going to get bigger from here which again this should make people understand. The stock market a little better. I think just the fact that maybe it's not what those dollars are doing where they're going. It's just that maybe the market quote unquote or the investors. Feel like the government actually understands. We have to continue throwing money at this. And maybe that would be the impetus for a huge leg down if the government screwed this up a little bit and turned off the spigot instead. Alright this is it. You're on your own now. I could see that being a reason for another big leg. Down in the market of the government starts screwing stuff up and not helping people in businesses where they potentially should so I saw chart last week. That Karl Anthony tweeted. I think. Tell me about this how the top fifty stocks and I should say the biggest stocks the ratio charter them compared to other companies has absolutely gone parabolic. It looks like bitcoin chart from two thousand seventeen. And so James. Bianco has a chart showing the largest stock and the S. and P. Five hundred the largest five semester. Five hundred. And Right now. It's at the highest level as it was since the mid seventies so the big are getting bigger and look at Exxon Mobil. For example in the early nineties was the biggest I for years I want to wear. It is now. Is that even in the top ten right so I think. Ge Enciso were two of the biggest stocks in the two thousand G. I think it's probably out of the top fifty cisco stolen there. I looked at the Russell. Three thousand which includes small and mid cap stocks. But that's only an extra ten percent so the top thirty stocks in the Russell. Two thousand make up roughly forty percent of the total the Russell. Three thousand is a good proxy for the entire stock market. Just not some OTC stocks and pink sheets and microscopes. But it's like twenty eight hundred stocks the top thirty make up forty percent of it. So that's what if you want to know why the stock market as a whole continues to rise? It's because those biggest companies are doing much better than everyone else. And they're holding it up so you mentioned earlier. If you were long short energy would have been the best performing manager. The Sierra so Michael. Dan Callahan did this. Really good research report and ended chart. They included the dispersion of dispersion. And right now we have the largest dispersion and stock since two thousand nine and he took it a step further he looked at. What's the difference between the stocks? The next best and the bad and the very worst so for example in two thousand nine hundred and the top half performers in the Russell. One thousand sixty seven and a half percent and the bottom half of outperformers were up thirty percents of the dispersion of dispersion for the winners was thirty percent so he did that again for the bottom which is and the bottom. Is like not off the charts? But it's extreme so the difference between bad stocks and the worst stocks. This year is ridiculous so my guess would be because it seems like the winners coming into this have been the winners going over so far if you were outperforming as a manager before you're probably stopped performing but the portfolio managers who held the stocks. That have been performing. Well you'd assume they would be the ones who continue outperform and that'd be whoever growth or fad chasing investors in the ones who underperforming would be value where people who are tilting away from those so it's almost like the composition of that hasn't changed. It's probably just gotten worse since it's been those big companies in so if you have tilted away from them at all you've been in some pain it's worth mentioning that oil is crashing. I saw that prices in Canada. I think for some futures contracts in the future went negative. Not a thirty percent today or something. I made the joke today. That the monthly cost of the Middle Ground Netflix subscription is more than a barrel oil. Today this is insane so the energy in two thousand eight when oil was one hundred fifty dollars a barrel energy stocks made up roughly seventeen percent of the five hundred. I look today. It's like two point seven percent of the S. and P. Five hundred which is crazy and again isn't all of this. Just maybe this is just because this is the way things are working out. But doesn't this show why it's so hard to beat the market because this handful of stocks can completely carry the day. You have all these other hundreds and thousands of companies to choose from and if you chose any of them or most of them. You're underperforming if you stuck with this one group or just held the S. and P. Five hundred you're doing better than the majority of investors out there who tried to pick something different it just shows market cap investing that the winners rise to the top and even when you have losers like Exxon and energy stocks that get hit you of these other winners that come up and take their place and it just shows why this has been such a difficult period for active managers. These saying the market is hard to be a little bit. But I mean you're saying this is the best chance stock pickers of head. Don't you think that the numbers probably aren't going to bear that out in terms of active performance? No because when you look at what I mean I'm saying that like using air quotes even though it's true when you look at where the dispersion is coming from it you're right it's basically as long as you warn in airlines energy and cruises. You're fine but although I will say exo pay which is the oil and gas exploration companies up one point six percent today. So maybe maybe the bad news is all price. Then you look at some very weird. Etf that I've never. This is not a weird ETF. I don't know this is like the third oil. Etf that you've mentioned energy ATF. In the last couple of weeks that I've never heard of before well you're targeted guy. Radars target date funds are doing fine today. Yeah I just think this'll be a painful period for active managers. I'm just guessing when the numbers come out and check out because there hasn't been a change in leadership again. Maybe it happens when stocks truly do bottom. We have a shakeout but as of right. Now it's just not happening so Jason's Wag Got Charlie. Munger on the phone and people have been waiting to hear what Berkshire is going to do. Because they have all this cash and he didn't really help anyone else audit all he basically just said. They're being patient. They don't know what's going to happen and they just they're not ready to deploy quite yet. I thought there was supposed to be greedy when others are feel for what's going on. They're confused and others are competent. I don't know do you think so. Monger is what ninety five ninety six buffet is so munger ninety six. Buffet is eighty nine or ninety. Obviously they're getting. I think. Buffet is ninety. They're both getting up there. Do you think that instead of just rushing to put all that cash to work. They're saying you know what if we do something now. This is our last big deal. And what if we put in something that it just works out horribly in blows up in our face? Do we want that last deal to be like this? Why don't we just sit on our cash? Maybe we'll buy back some shares of company and not do anything so they never put it out there. Is it possible to guys like this to see the risk profile change? Because there's so much older I think so. I mean I know this might offend a lot of the Munger Buffett accolades but monger said quote. We just want to get through the typhoon and we'd rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We're not playing. Oh goody goody everything's going to Alba's plunge on two percent of the reserves into buying business and quote but isn't this what they've always done in the past like why is now different. That's what I'm saying if buffet was thirty five or forty and obviously it. Maybe it's just because they're companies so much bigger now and he was seventy-five right. It does seem. Maybe they're just so big trying to move the needle. It's really hard for them. Whatever they tried to buy wouldn't wouldn't move the needle and doesn't make any sense for them. Yeah so ted. Side is really good. Piece in institutional investor the day of reckoning for private equity why of management in the public markets battle withdrawals fee compression private equity managers escape scrutiny. Generative Returns Massive Fund commitments followed then came the virus. So He's wondering like obviously leveraged buyouts. There's a lot of leverage that they are. This is a crazy stat. Eighty percent of all companies rated triple beer backed by private equity right so a lot of the Dan has written about this. The fact that a lot of a lot of hedge funds actually were created in invested in a lot of his credit. So it's kind of like a circular thing here where maybe these companies get some lifelines in the short term. But he's saying listen. Their borrowing costs are GONNA go up. They have so much leverage. That's GonNa hurt them on the way down are a lot of these companies. Just going to be toast. It makes sense again. I think because they have that one or two trillion and dry powder waiting for them by the way I have to triple B. What I meant was be three which is basically. It is definitely very speculative it's below investment grade right. He's our junk bonds for the most part and so I'm guessing they're borrowing costs are going to go up even though or it's GonNa be harder for them to borrow so I think people confuse these things of they see that the Fed has lowered interest rates and they see that like ten years down and they assume that it must be easy forever to borrow but a lot of these places a lot of banks are gonNA make the standards harder for them to borrow so even if interest rates are low if credit is not loose. It's going to be harder for these PLACES TO BORROW. And so having them roll their leverage overs. Probably be harder to so basically. What are we saying? There's nowhere to hide. Probably Right. I guess what tied was saying is the way that hedge funds image was forever tarnished after the Jeff say same thing's going to happen with private companies when all the Dust Settles. I could see that the only difference is because it takes a long time to see the results for private equity companies. I think they can string this out in. You're not going to know for seven or eight years probably and I think that's why we're the hedge funds you know right away. They had a bad quarter a bad month with private equity. I think it's GonNa take a long time. And I think a lot of these investors these endowments and foundations and sovereign wealth funds and. Pensions AREN'T GONNA know. They got a raw deal for a long time. And they're gonNA look back in a decade and go. Oh my gosh. This was awful this huge Albatross for.
"munger buffett" Discussed on The Stock Podcast | CEO and CFO Interviews
"He's added to the business. But the point is even arguably the best investor in our lifetimes his company has underperformed the S. and P. Five hundred on her twenty five percent of the time on average the years he's underperformed underperformed by I think sixteen or seventeen percent a year big under-performance swinney underperforms big outperformance when outperforms and obviously over decades he's dramatically outperform. But you know. Oh you're gonNA have those really tough periods. Sometimes they're it's GonNa make sense. Why why you're not doing well? Sometimes it's GonNa make absolutely no sense. Why why you're not doing doing well? The question is do you think you've bought good values for the next ten or twenty years not not. Do you think you've bought good values. It's going to be recognized by the market in the next twelve months. There's people that do that and I think there's a few people that actually do it pretty well but I don't know how they do it. I know oh I can't do it and just the stress about thinking about how to do. It is counterproductive for me and so I take the underperformance in stride again. It's it's really hard. Twelve months is a pretty long time when you're living it but ten years from now like you know twenty nineteen eighteen for me will just be a drop in the bucket kind of and it'll be a bad performance year on a relative basis and you know from I really long term track track record. It's it's just not gonna be all that meaningful. It'd be different if I were down. Fifty or sixty percent or something like that that's impairing capital but all potentially for the long term especially when the market's up twenty five percent plus but but that's not the case it's kind of just investing investing in things that continued to be hated but that also kind of goes back to my own philosophy in my preference for companies that either pay a a lot of cash out as dividends or companies that repurchase a lot of stock or companies that use a very high free cash flow yield to to change the balance structure of the business. And so there's a shift between that holders equity holders in the EV equation. Because that gets you through those tough period rates and so again if you can be right on the economics in either getting cash shrinking assure count or lowering the risk profile of the balance sheet. You'RE GONNA come through those periods periods. Much better off. But it doesn't mean you're GonNa you're just GONNA go straight up into the right and so it's really just about having perspective and trying to think about if if the fundamentals of your investments have have changed at one or two or the last couple years where I think. I've just been wrong the by-in-large I just think it's value compression and a lot of the names I on so you mentioned some big names there. And I've had the fortune of hearing you talk about some of the investors that you look up to over the past several years that would like to talk about Arctic. Here who who who in the investment world has had a big impact on you has influenced you as an investor in who do you look to as an investor. Well I think it kind of goes back to the question. Why do I got into investing why I wanted to be an investor and there's a couple of names Some of which people will know some of which people won't let one of the lesser known names would be Helen Young Hayes. I've actually never met Helen. That are at a cocktail reception number of years back. But I've actually never met her but I remember reading about Helen in the Denver. Post believe in ninety nine hundred ninety three or eighteen ninety four. I think I was a sophomore in high school. And what she was doing with the overseas fund at the time and it may have been the worldwide fund at the time and it was just it was a great profile of Helen. And what great work she was doing. Yeah that's kind of my first memory of reading about an investor and be like. Wow this is a profession. That's pretty crazy. And then from there like a lot of investors investors a lot of most value investors general. My junior high school I remember this distinctly of Walden books in the mall. Picking up in the making of American capitalist the buffet biography orphee and just staring at this thing and reading the back cover and like realizing the richest guy in America was a dude who were pajamas around his house in like worked out of this House essentially the first decade of his life or his career. And so I bought that book and just consumed it in probably two or three days and that was the spark. Like that's when I knew do. That's what I wanted to do. Because it was just so interesting to me. And then the unlimited upside on his earning potential was like nothing. I had ever seen her before in so that that got me really kicked off on investing in which took computer lynch stuff. Obviously you know of course force read everything by buffet mongers. Well you know which took me to the kind of the more modern value investors like set Clarkson Airman So those guys are kind of foundation for you know like how you view the world. It's like how you viewed the world just didn't know it because either get it or you. Don't I think in I just agreed with ninety nine percent of the way that that somebody like buffet. It looks at the world's can somebody like Carmen manages. A portfolio looks at the world aside from from those people to lesser known. Her probably lesser-known lesser-known investors. That I really look up to our Paul Reader at park capital. He's done an amazing job. And you know from what I understand about Paul. I just love the way that he manages money. I love the way he conducts himself on. I really look up to him. And his firm and the Nicholas Sleep who used to be marathon asset management and then was was a partner asleep. Sakaria Kinda disappeared off the map a number of years ago and ended up closing down as fond in just paying. His fundholders does my understanding at least paying his fundholders kind and stocks that he had owned for decades and he was just inactive and pretty sure he wasn't going to trade much and didn't see why people should be paying him a management fee for owning sixty percent of his portfolio in Amazon Costco in Berkshire Hathaway in so this was like before one of those stocks when absolutely parabolic Cosco's done great berkshires. been just fine and rather than make money off all these people he he just closed down the fun and said don't ever sell these stocks so admire his performances an investor. His writing is off the charts. Good and then just his morals is to actually do that and say you know what makes zero sense for me to make money off all these people when they already have my best ideas. Let's let's just do that. And so those would be to lesser-known investors that I admire just as much as you know buffet monger Cormon and then when I came to Janice people that I actually got to work extremely closely closely with that. I really admired was Brent. Lynn Karan the Overseas Fund and David Decker who ran the contrarian fund In both them help shape me at arm's length just on how to go against the grain had to be very bold investors also do it with a humility and patience and understanding that a lot of times you can look pretty silly of all those people that you mentioned who who's had have the greatest impact on your investment philosophy. That's buffet but oddly enough I will say this is all buffet on new buff. And there's a big difference was the difference. There's Ben Graham Buffet. There's Charlie monger buff and it Kinda sounds stupid because Charlie Munger Buffett has probably been more successful and I don't know about that have to look at the numbers but char- Charlie Munger Buffett was required to manage manage the amount of capital. That Buffett was managing but Ben Graham Buffet. Nineteen fifty seven through nineteen seventy when he closed search fund that that investors been more impactful on me. Just because I'm not I'm not good about buying the high quality businesses at a fair a price. I I do hope I get better at it but I think it takes like obviously a major blow down in the general stock market to find those. I've definitely gravitated more towards a Scrappy bargain-hunting Cigar Butts in not even a cigar butts. Because the market's different to where you don't get a shot at those anymore but did you know when buffet put forty percent of his fund into American Express. Like back in. I don't know what it was. Sixty four sixty five like American Express. The time was a good the company. But it's not American Express of today and they had a real scandal on their hands and this guy just he had the guts to put forty percent of his fund in this thing when it felt it it didn't feel good like they had a potentially a real scandal on their hands like that's identify much more with that buffet than I do the buffet. Who's just accumulating relating high-quality business as an never never selling them but I think that's also been potentially his greatest trick of all time is preaching that philosophy lost fee because it's now put such a massive bid under all of his businesses because they're high quality high return on capital businesses that get bid to the moon and and you know it's helped his performance quite a bit? Yeah by far buffet though has been. And it's it's it's it's nothing unique. But he's been such a prolific writer and he's been around so long and he seems to have done it extremely just right and he's done it for the right reasons that it's hard to have it not be him. The next question I have for. You has two sides to it. I just be curious to hear whether or not you see opportunities outside of energy in airlines and then the other side to that question is is there a sector that despite screaming cheap valuations. You just would not invest in its definitive. No is there a sector. I would never invest in I just I can't. I'm just like a fly to to shit an stinks a lot. I love to fly around for some reason. I don't know what it is. There's plenty of industries. I probably shouldn't invest him. Like biotech is a perfect example. But if I if if I came across a plausible good value investment in bio bio tech. It it would be hard for me to avoid because you know I mean it's again going back to the honesty here like I just know that about myself is an and it's just a human kind of human psyche like you get comfortable thinking you know something and and I would more than likely fall into that trap now. The way to the way to mitigate a potential disasters obviously make it as a smaller physician and being aware of that. Like I trust me it. Would it would have to get to the ninth or tenth inning of that process before I'd make an investment because I just know that about myself but I'm also highly aware you get nine ten eleven inning in his still looks like a fat pitch to me. I'm probably going to make. It just won't be a big heavy cut. Ah at the ball. So now there's no sector I would I would avoid. There's GonNa be a lot that I avoid most that I avoid obviously at all times but It would be disingenuous for me to say I would avoid anything necessarily and then outside of energy in In Airlines things that are related. Obviously that I I think I would be able to get my arms around through time to develop that circle a competence. But I mean it's just GonNa come over time as I learn about other things and then it would would come at a time when I made that investment where I thought I couldn't make a lot of money and energy or or airlines for that matter and maybe there there would be some other sector that I understood that was actually chief but but by and large. That's not going to be the way that I operate. But you know to just close your brain offense. I don't WanNA look at X Y. and Z because it's not my circle of competence..
"munger buffett" Discussed on The Stock Podcast | CEO and CFO Interviews
"But but that's not the case it's kind of just investing in things that continued to be hated but that also kind of goes back to my own philosophy and my preference for for companies that either pay a lot of cash out dividends or companies that repurchase a lot of stock or companies. That use who's a very high free cash flow yield to to change the the balance sheet structure of the business and so there's a shift between debt holders equity holders in the EV. Equation it. Because that gets you through those tough periods so again if you can be right on the economics in either getting cash shrinking share count or lowering the risk profile of the balance sheet. You you're gonNA come through those periods much better off but it doesn't mean you're you're just GONNA go straight up into the right and so it's really just about having perspective perspective and trying to think about if if the fundamentals of your investments have have changed at one or two or the last couple of years where I think. I've just been wrong by large. I just think it's value compression and a lot of the names so you mentioned in some big names there and I've had the fortune of hearing you talk about some of the investors that you look up to over the past several years I would like to talk about it here. WHO WHO in the investment world has had a big impact on you has influenced you do as an investor in who'd you look up to as an investor? Well I think it it kind of goes back to the question of why why I got into investing asked him why I wanted to be an investor. And there's a couple of names Some of which people will know some of which people won't but one of the lesser known names would be Helen Young Hayes. I've actually never met Helen that SAR at Janus cocktail reception number of years back. But I've actually never ever matter but I remember reading about Helen in the Denver Post I believe in ninety nine hundred ninety three or eighteen. Ninety four I think I was a sophomore in high school and what she was doing with the overseas fund at the time and it may have been the worldwide fund at the time and it was just it was a great profile of Helen. And what great work she was doing. That's kind of my first memory of reading about an investor and be like. Wow this is a profession. That's pretty crazy. And then from they're like a lot of investors a lot of most value investors in general. My junior high school I remember this distinctly Walden books in the mall picking up in the making of American capitalist. The buffet biography and just staring at this thing and reading the back cover and like realizing the richest guy in America was dude. who were Jama's around his house and like out of his house essentially the first decade of his life or his career and so I bought that book and just consumed it and probably two or three days and that was the spark? Like that's when I knew that's what I wanted to do. Because it was just so interesting to me. And then the unlimited upside right on his earning potential was like nothing I'd ever seen or heard of before in so that that got me really kicked off on investing in which took me to some Peter Lynch Lynch stuff obviously and of course read everything by buffet mongers. Well you know which took me to the kind of the more modern value investors like Seth Carmen. So those guys were kind of the foundation for you. Know it's not like how you view the the world it's like how you view world you just didn't know it because either get it or you. Don't I think in just agreed with ninety nine percent of the way that that that somebody like. Buffet looks at the world's can somebody like Clarkson manages a portfolio and looks at the world aside from from those people to you. lesser-known are probably lesser-known investors. That I really look up to our Paul reader at par capital. He's done an amazing job and and you know from what I understand about. Politics loved the way that he manages. Money I love the way that he conducts himself and I really look up to him and his firm And then Nikola sleep who used to be marathon marathon asset management and then was a partner Asleep Sakaria in kind of disappeared off the map a number years ago and ended up closing down his fund in just paying. His fundholders does my understanding at least paying his fundholders in-kind stocks that he had owned for decades and he was just inactive and pretty sure he wasn't going to trade much and didn't see why people should be paying him a management fee for owning sixty percent of his portfolio in in an Amazon Costco in Berkshire hathaway in so this was like a four one of those stocks when absolute parabolic Costco's done great berkshires. been just fine and rather than make money off all these people. He closed down the fun and said don't ever sell these stocks so admire his performance as an investor. His writing is off the charts good and then just his morals to actually do that and say you know what it makes zero sense for me to make money off all these people when they already have my best ideas. Let's let's let's just do that. So those would be to lesser-known investors that I admire just as much as you know buffet longer Cormon and then when I came to Janice people people who actually got to work extremely closely with that I really admired. One was Brent Lynn Herani Overseas Fund and David Decker who ran the Contrarian Fund Uh and both of them help shaped me at arm's length just on how to go against the grain how to be very bold investors the also do it with a humility and patience and understanding that you know a lot of times you can look pretty silly of all those people that you mentioned who have the greatest impact on your investment philosophy Buffet easy but oddly enough. I will say hey this is all buffet on new buff. And there's a big difference was the difference. There's been grand buffet. There's Charlie monger and it Kinda sounds stupid because Charlie Munger Buffett has probably been more successful and I don't know about that have to look at the numbers but Charlie Charlie Munger Buffett was required to manage the amount of capital. That Buffett was managing but Ben Graham Buffet Nine thousand nine hundred fifty seven and through nineteen seventy. He closed his hedge fund that that investors been more impactful on me. Just because I'm not I'm not good about buying the her high quality businesses at a fair price. I do hope I get better at it but I think it takes like obviously a major blow down in the general stock market define those. I've definitely gravitated more towards the scrappy bargain-hunting Cigar Butts in not even a cigar butts because the market's different to where you don't get a shot at those anymore but you know when buffet put forty percent of funding American Express like back in. I don't know what it was. Sixty four sixty five like American Express. The time was a good company. But it's not American Express today and they had a real scandal on their hands and this guy he had the guts to put forty percent of his fund. In this thing when it felt it didn't feel good like they had a potentially a real scandal on their hands like that's identified much more with that buffet than I do do the buffet. WHO's just accumulating high-quality businesses and never ever selling them but I think that's also been potentially his greatest trick of all time is preaching that philosophy because it's now put such a massive bid under all of his businesses because they're high quality high return on capital businesses? Thank you bid to the moon and you know it's helped his performance quite a bit. Yeah by far buffet. Though has been an as it's it's it's nothing unique unique. But he's been such a prolific writer and he's been around so long and he seems to have done it extremely just right and he's done it for the right reasons that it's hard into have it not be him so this next question I have for you has two sides to it. Just be curious to hear whether or not you see opportunities outside of energy energy in airlines and the other side to that question is is there sector that despite screaming cheap valuations. You just would not invest invest in. I think it's a definitive. No is there a sector. I would never invest and I just I can't I'm just like a flight to shed and it stinks a lot. I love to fly around for some reason. I don't know what it is. There's plenty of industries. I probably shouldn't invest him like biotech. The attack is a perfect example. But if I if I came across a plausible could value investment in bio bio tech. It would be hard for me to avoid Loyd because again going back to two honesty here like I just know that about myself is an and it's just human kind of human psyche is like you get comfortable trouble thinking you know something and I would more than likely fall into that trap now. The way to the way to mitigate a potential disasters obviously make it as a smaller position and being aware of that like I trust me it would it. Would you'd have to get to the ninth or tenth inning of that process before I'd make an investment because is I just know that about myself but I'm also highly aware you get nine ten eleven inning. His still looks like a fat pitch to me. I'm probably going to make it. Just won't be a a a big heavy cut at the ball. So now there's no sector I would I would avoid. There's GonNa be a lot that I avoid most that I avoid obviously at all times but It would be disingenuous for me to say I would avoid anything necessarily and then outside of energy in airlines. There's things that are related. Obviously that I think I would be able to get my arms around through time to develop that circle competence but I mean I it's just going to Overtime as I learn about other things and then it would come at a time when I made that investment where. I thought I couldn't make a lot of money in energy or or airlines for that matter. You're and maybe there would be some other sector that I understood that was actually cheap but but by and large. That's not going to be the way that I operate. Operate but you know to just close your brain off and say. I don't WanNa look at X. Y. Z.. Because it's not my circle of competence. It's it's the rational thing to do but you're always trying to learn and you're always trying to measure opportunity set versus opportunity. Set is just going to take years and decades for me to feel like I have something else in that quiver the probability of me doing anything out of energy or airlines at least for the next five to ten years is under ten percent low probability. What are you most excited about right now? And and that can relate to either performance and are you more attended about that now than you are back then just pull months into it. What are you most excited about? I think most excited about the a five to ten year performance of the things I'm invested in on an absolute basis but especially relative to the rest of the world and part of that is you know comes back to being relatively smoked this year. It doesn't seem to be a lot of very interesting things in the world to invest in. And so I think if you can find a portfolio that you that you think can deliver ten to fifteen percent type of returns this annualized returns over a five to ten year period. I actually think that's pretty unique and I think you would be most indexes X.'s. For sure over a five to ten year period and so I feel really good about the relative value of my portfolio. I feel really good about the absolute value of my portfolio. But if I had to wait the two it's it's definitely on the relative side just because you know the markets up so much this year and it just seems like you know ten years. Here's end to you. Know the great economic expansion the US has ever seen one of the greatest bull markets us has ever seen it just seems like buying an index. Fine mm for the next five. Ten years is maybe ten years too much but five years is just kind of seems like it's it's GonNa be weighted towards not having a great outcome whereas I am comfortable and continue to invest in things that just pay cash or by back a lot of very cheap stock and in some point that will be recognized and I think it will turn out well for for the stocks that I own in the sectors invested in but Tom. That's probably the most excited about 'em also excited about the fact that I'm essentially done setting up the fund and have gone through. Do you know the legal process. And paying attorney fees and it's it's good to be beyond all that and just gabled one not write big checks and then to just focus on investing. That is a relief as well and having gone through a year of doing the auditing the tax work just figuring out the structure of running a partnership has been helpful. And I've probably done some silly things in things that have made my administrator or my attorney or some of these people just wonder what I'm doing because I'm just I'm just trying to figure it out. I mean it's server set this up before and so now I'm starting to get the the rhythm of just having this partnership open in what needs to be done to to run as successful partnership on the business side just investment side so I know that you read a lot and what for you is the most important investment boker talker investing book that you'd encourage everyone to read the obvious ones are there. I think the less obvious ones would be you. You know. There's two books written by marathon capital. I think it's capital returns in capital cycle. I think is the first one that came out. Those are good books just because they go year by year and it's kind of like just a collection of their investment letters that kind of talk about their philosophy which is Megan just money going into a sector probably a bad sector money coming out is probably connector via to boil down like. That's it's really all it is. It's obviously morning once than that but those are really good books. The outsiders is really good book just about good business. Managers Sat simply done a great job by their capital allocation decisions. And have even this book to a number of companies. CFO's company presidents that. Yeah I know trying to hammer that point home and most of them already know it but but they've they've also found it to be a great read..
"munger buffett" Discussed on The Cycling Podcast
"It's like if if something it becomes normalized to you and it's something that you take pleasure in then is it. Extreme does does a monk live in extreme extreme lifestyle ask among not you know. And that's that's what I mean is like I think you find something you enjoy and for a lot of cyclists is that very methodical. Preparation is what they enjoy. So I think for them. It's not extreme. You know and they they may be totally blind to the fact that every normal person around them sort of observes this and they see it as extreme but like I said I think even in other sorts of very competitive environments. You know. Maybe it's not cycling. Maybe it's business. I think you witnessed that a lot and people are just absorbed in you know what they're doing. An example simple I would draw is like you know Berkshire Hathaway like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Buffett's eighty nine and mongers ninety five and they both go to work every day and what's buffet worth. One hundred billion dollars. It's like certainly doesn't need to work. I think he lives a pretty simple lifestyle but I imagine he just loves doing what he does. And I think for a lot of cyclists there in that position addition which actually I think is the rate is. What's that you'll love your eighth? No but but you're doing it because you love it you know and I think I think it's a beautiful thing I got an argument with my dad wants about who had a better job. He's an aerospace engineer. And I'm like well you're not that good and finally came to the point where I was like. Well okay. We're both going to get paid our current salary for the rest of our lives. You don't have to show up to work tomorrow. Are you. Go to work and I was like because I'm going to go ride my bike tomorrow and I'm probably going to ride and ride hard because it's just what I feel like doing. And he was like well no. I'm going to stay home and it's on the argument. Yeah do you guys. Is there a point in your career. Were you feel secure. I mean it's not secure sport. I'm bout de Reach a point where 'cause I guess when you want to say eighty three and a half years ago here you you still kind of in a way proving yourselves and on you know trying to fulfil your potential de feel more secure. Not necessarily because you've got long contracts wherever but just that you find your place and there's a security that comes with that I feel like none of us have really gotten to the place where we feel like we've actually really reached our potential.
"munger buffett" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"Goes. New buffet or old buffet. No. He did not. Yeah. And I said, what do you think that means? I know what it 'cause we continue the conversation. I said Munger Buffett, and he goes, right? New buffet. Oh, Munger Buffett is new buffet so old buffet means Graham buffet, yes. It's free. Charlie Munger, wonderful company at a fair price better than fair company to wonderful, price and Graham was all about fair companies at wonderful prices, and his is sort of technology for finding them is what runs through all of us that. That's what's where you're looking at specific things that tell you the value of the business, and then Graham would just buy a bunch of them right cigar butts, whereas buffet you buy a very small number and the vast majority of people including Tom gainer at at Marquel are buying a large number of companies. They're more toward value invested in gainer in these guys at Marquel are basically saying, yeah, we'll come in and turn around accompany. If we feel like we're Cape. -able of doing that, blah, blah. Whereas and were they get real involved in management. Where's buffeted Munger? Never get involved in management at all if they have to change management. It's like a big deal and that came up at the man as well. Yeah. With regard to three g and the Kraft Heinz deal come back to that. But I sort of finish my thought on Amazon real quick that he just pointed out that. What we're looking for. Now is that you get your putting a little money now. And you're getting a lot more money later. That's that's investing. Yeah. He said, we're not value investors. All investing should be value. Investing. Right. And so he was pushing back, and he said, our guys are absolutely value investors in the sense that we're buying something for far less than it's worth expected to make more money in the future. Doesn't matter about multiple doesn't matter about book value. There are no metrics that we look at us. Oh, these are sacred metrics here. What's sacred is or buying six person the Bush for one bird, and how long is it gonna take to get there? Yeah. That was really cool. That was really cool. How far away it is what the possibilities are in ten or twenty years. And then Charlie went on to say, we we're older and we're not so flexible. So something extremist internet happens, you know, others other people are gonna blow by you. Because they're a more on top of that is I don't mind missing Amazon. Yeah. Don't mind missing. Amazon is the guys kind of genius. He's a unicorn. True. You couldn't have known you. Absolutely. Could not have known that that book company was going to turn into what it is. Right. And the jolly goes, but I'm a horse's ass for missing Google. Those guys weren't they weren't dependent on being genius managers and operators. They had a way of seeing the search world and Charlie said it's so frustrating because we were using Google ads, and we were benefiting from Google ads with I think gyco or something gyco. Yeah. And we sought we use it every day, and we didn't see this investment. And I felt pretty good about that. Because I bought Google bought it after I was using. Oh, that's what's the deal with this. And you honestly, you had to have used their ads back in those days to understand that they were giving away all this stuff. They were going to be very hard to compete with all these things. Microsoft was selling they were giving away, and they had a different revenue model that allowed them to do that that nobody else had and it was genius. And I felt really good. I saw and I felt really bad that I saw it later. That's always that you sell things shall things would I should held onto. So I'm still learning you guys. It is true. It's interesting to see like what it's like to really hold something for how long have they had American Express like twenty five years or some seventies since the seventies. Because American Express went to zero or negative book value and everybody bailed out of the stock. And buffet looked at it and went this is one of the real breakthroughs in buffets. Investing is to recognize in that intrinsic value can include a lot of really valuable intangibles that aren't on the books, and that has changed everything. Right. So he bought American Express for its intangibles that he thought were very valuable, and he was right? So they've held it for let's say oh gosh. Forty years years. Yeah. Probably ballpark just held it. Yeah. Like think about how how much work is in that. Will there's another thing that Charlie said, which was if if you was at Charlie I I'm getting I know it's hard Charlie buffet because everything they're saying out here you guys for two days, just giant important. But one of them was talking about was Tom gainer. Again, he talked about showing his board. What it meant in terms of real dollars? Oh, yeah. That was to go through mart. Happened. What he did is he showed up at the board meeting with two thousand dollars or so in a briefcase stacked in one dollar bills wrapped up in in blocks. And he showed them the history of Marquel stock moving forward. He says okay here we are. We buy it where at eight dollars. They appealed it. Eight dollars pulled out eight dollars eight dollars on the table. And then we went to sixteen but what happened in the middle was we went to four eight to four then the sixteen and then we went from sixteen to eight to thirty two and over and over again this progression of doubling involved having. I think he said every single time he said every single time. I mean, I'm sure it's generalization, but he said every single time they lost half of the price before it doubled. Right. And he wanted them to really see what that looked like. So that I think they didn't have I don't know anything about my Marquel yesterday was the first time I'd ever really heard of. Them or Tom gainer or anything? So I have no perspective. But he said that last year wasn't such a good year. So I think that was his point to the board. Right. Because the stock went from get this case we're talking about eight to sixteen sixteen to thirty two Marquel? Is now at one thousand sixty five oh nice. All right. And he was trying to demonstrate to the board that this is a natural process. And I think it was genius and buffet, of course, tries to have people understand the same thing about Berkshire stock which came up in the meeting in terms of buybacks. I think it was one of the most important things that came up in the median is that people were criticizing him in trying to understand why he bought stock a little bit of stock a billion dollars relative to a hundred and I think he's got hundred and forty billion now in cash so a dip in the bucket ah toe in the water in the third quarter
"munger buffett" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"Podcast. Welcome back. We really excited that you're here learning about investing from the best investors in the world. Particularly Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, and we're deep into Munger and Buffett right now in the discussion that was started kind of couple weeks ago. Yes, as Charlie had his annual meeting now Warren Buffett's released his letter for the year, these become big events for the value investing community to take a look at what's the latest and greatest from these guys we've been talking about some of that to this point. And I think we'll continue diving into that today. What do you think I think we should? I mean, one thing that that really struck me about when Charlie spoke at the daily journal meeting was that he said, I think twice that if he had made some investment in the seventies his net worth would be double what it is right now. And I can tell me for him to even talk about something that happened in the seventies. That is a long time ago, and he still thinking about it. So I I mean, I heard him say that and I was like, wow. Wow. That really tortures him. I can tell not in any really bad way. But in a way where when he thinks about it. He's like I really wish I had that one back and. You know, one thing that he's known for is not doing much like we talked last time about how he's he. He just hardly ever has a transaction and his so stuck into the companies and the funds that he invests in and doesn't really make changes. And forget reason because he spends an enormous amount of time reading about the company he wants to own puts it a lot of work to to come to understand all the good things and all the bad things about it. As you would if you were going to buy a company, if you were going to buy a laundromat, if you're going to buy a McDonald's franchise, you you take the time because this is it right? I mean, if you're going to buy a house down the road, you take the time to understand if that things are good house. And that's what Charlie's done here is taken the time. And as a result. I think what he was saying was that he makes occasional mistakes of comission where you blows. And then you buy the wrong business. That's a mistake of comission. You you made a mistake. Every investor has done at you're going to do it to where you just think you've got it. Understood. And then it doesn't work out the way you hoped it would. Munger Buffett in particular makes that mistake like pretty often. It's kind of funny, actually, but the key is that you buy these things with a big margin of safety. You can pretty much assured of getting out of it without a permanent loss of capital. And so the mistake of commission if you've done it with a margin of safety typically works out where okay, I wish I didn't do that one. But I haven't lost my money. That makes sense. Okay money, but I haven't made any money. Yeah. We're done something differently. There. Now comes the one that Charlie and Warren do a lot of eyars in and that is mistakes of omission. I didn't pull the trigger when I should have. And I was sitting there with the information. I have the information, and I didn't buy the thing. And I don't know, you know, specifically, how many of these different things Charlie could go through. But one of the way you make a mistake of omission that I make over and over again, it's very painful, I hate it. And that is I want to buy this business. I've set the price to buy it. But the stock price doesn't come down to my by price. And I don't get to buy it. And I was right. It's a great business. It goes on like I was..
"munger buffett" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"Bottle. If they just call it alcohol, and a bottle wouldn't have any problem with it. But they're calling it a cure for cancer. And they're charging you for it. This cure for cancer. It's mislabeled. Or with these books where the women used always take a drop of laudanum. And I always did know at laudanum was and it turns out, it's opium. It's like pure straight up. Everyone was drugged. Like on the regular just to get through life. Hey, you gotta get through the Victorian era Email you need some lot do. So this is your thousand percent, right. That's what he's doing. He's he's kind of taking up for everyone who's trying to be a true investor. And I mean, I read a tweet that said something like he's railing on people who are trying to beat the index to a room filled with two hundred people all of whom are trying to beat the index and think that they're the exception to the rule. And it's so true. I know number of the people in the room, and and I I've worked with a few of them closely enough, all the exception to the rule aren't they dad and the rule. Yeah, I'm not I'm. Are you? Sure. What are you doing teaching me? If you're not. I really think I'm the exception to the. I'm the exception to the but. Them. I think what you said is right. The rule that he's talking about is not the rule that frankly that I'm trying to follow. So. Yeah, I don't really care if. So in so diversifier is or is not the exception to the rule. What I care about is. Can I make good choices with very long-term companies? And with only a few of them just like what he says to do with Berkshire Hathaway with his own portfolio. I mean, he says he owns four investments daily journal stock. Berkshire Hathaway stock Costco, stock and investment with the fund manager Li Liu and he says, of course, I'm out performing everybody. Practically never have a transaction. And the answer is I'm right, and they're wrong to you want to be more like me or more like them. This is a room full of people who have forty fifty sixty stocks. It's not I don't know. Maybe it is people who have who have a small number. Are are pretty careful about it. I watched this interview with Monash pariah recently, which is a very old interview. So I don't know if it's accurate as to what he's doing anymore. I think it was from twenty eleven but it's down the line. Charlie Munger, I'm gonna tell you something. So it's twenty eleven right. So quite a while ago. He could have changed the way he's doing things, but it was with Steve Forbes, and it's on YouTube, and he says that he used to follow the ten by ten role, which is. Ten stocks. Yes. Thank you. So he used to his in twenty eleven he used to follow that. And then he started moving towards having even smaller positions than ten percent. And after the financial crisis decided he needed to because he was fully invested at the time. And he wasn't able to buy a lot. He said that was extremely frustrating. So now he keeps in twenty eleven he kept some good size portion in cash always. And then made his his his investments actually, a smaller percentage than ten percent and increased the number of investments so didn't do that. And then he didn't do that. What does that mean? Then he went out and bought a very small number of stocks. And I mean, even I mean right in the range of Charlie's four. Rining keenness up. He said in the interview. I know. So that's what I'm saying. It could've been a moment. Because it was a really bumpy time. And and now he's on top again. And and he's on top because he went back to the basic Munger Buffett strategy. He bought Fiat Chrysler loaded up on it. It's split to Ferrari and Fiat Chrysler and it made him eight hundred percent. And that wouldn't matter if you're in a portfolio where it's one out of twenty, but it matters a lot if it's twenty five percent of your portfolio, and I think she's back in the fold hundred percent. And right now, he's got he's got. He just bought Micron. I think but I'm not big you went in Fiat Chrysler. He still has a any Scott a bit. He's got a big interest in an Indian company, and he's got a bunch of cash. So my I think no question the lesson to stay in cash until there's a a real major crisis is a lesson that everyone who didn't do. It was learning from two thousand nine the good fortune of getting out of the market two thousand seven and was waiting to come back in. So it's and gosh, we did a class in Singapore that class just pick ten companies and ten years later. One of those companies has gone on on down almost zero. But the other nine did. Okay. Too. Great. And the overall return on one hundred thousand dollars was thirty two percent per year compounded in that hundred thousand became one point two five million compared to the five hundred which is one hundred became about three hundred thousand so Charlies. I totally buy it. It's one hundred percent, right. And then the question is just how. How close can you come to Charlie mongers level of certainty that he knows he's right? And the closer you can come to that on any given company Honey than the closer you can get to put it all in. Yeah. Right. So I'll give you another diversification. Quote that you're gonna like he says, and this is at about twenty four minutes in the YouTube video if you're following along. So he says an idiot could diversify portfolio or a computer for that matter the whole trick of the game is to have a few times when you know that something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge. And then if you get just a few opportunities that's enough. What the hell do you care if you own three securities and J P Morgan Chase owns one hundred you know, what's wrong with owning a few. Securities warrant always says if you lived in a growing town new owned stock in three of the best enterprises in the town, isn't that diversified enough? The answer is of course, it is if they're all wonderful places, and then he goes on to say. Later on. So the whole idea of diversification. If you're looking for excellence is totally ridiculous. It doesn't work. It gives you an impossible task what fun is it to do an impossible task over and over again, I find it agony who would want to do it. I love it. And you skipped over something there. I did I skipped over the fortunates formula part. Did you do that on purpose to keep that quiet in secret? No, I thought it was a little bit long. Do want me to add it in. No, I think we should just keep it, quiet.
"munger buffett" Discussed on Invested: The Rule #1 Podcast
"The. Everybody. This is feel town. And this is Dan town. Welcome invested podcast. We are learning teaching investing Warren buffet and Charlie monger style. And what that really boils down to is buying a few wonderful companies Charlie causes focused investing. We found out last week. Remembered pretty good. We're buying a few wonderful businesses, and we're going to sit on them, and they're going to compound our money and make us wealthier. And that is the idea and. Where do sign up. Yeah. The catch is not so much. Well, there's two catches. You got to figure out. What of the many wonderful businesses that are out there, which ones you can really understand. And you've got to find them when they're on sale, and that on sale thing is really a puzzle right now because man alive, it's the markets have been screamingly high for the last three years, and they are starting to kind of pop around now, and maybe start to indicate that might be going down. But bide companies at this level right here at the prices people are paying for them, especially if you diversify by a whole bunch of them have historically resulted in nearly zero percent rates of return over the next twenty years. And if that doesn't get your attention for your retirement and your potential for living. Well, I'm sorry. You're not paying attention you need to be paying attention. I think most of us are not paying attention. This is true. That's my own personal experience. Which is really really scary. I'm telling you really scary when you've got tension, then you don't get scared. If you know anything you don't get scared, then you just dead, you're just ignorant and happy You're gonna happy right until you get him by the lion. So I mean, that's horrible. You don't wanna do that? It'd be better to be knowledgeable and scared when you should be scared. Like that that famous things like, you know, anyone who actually understands the situation is panicked right now. Right. If you're not panicked right now. You simply don't understand. Yeah. So. So we're not there yet on the panic thing. But I will tell you this on a guy that I really hope you get a chance to read his book. I'm gonna earn courage. Everyone to read this book. We've talked about this book occasionally fuck it's called margin of safety, and it was written in the nineties by Seth Clermont. K L A R M A N says runs a twenty billion dollar hedge fund called bow post. He's got a phenomenal track record. And he's one of the most interesting writers about investing, you know, that warrant in. I mean, Charlie reads him, you know, I mean, he's he's a smart guy Clarkson, his book is available on EBay highly. Encourage you to read his book, not an EBay because it's out of print, really. So there's not enough demand for it. Well, there's not enough demand. Or Seth doesn't care to bother to go back in and mess with it. And so if you wanna copy the book at think, they range between one thousand and fifteen hundred dollars I will not be purchasing that book or you can download it as a PDF. That's terrible though. You mean somebody just ripped it, dad? Seth source a lot of money, and I think he's happy to have it out there or he republished it right and sell it for twenty. So I don't think it's a thing for him. I'm gonna take the chance here that he's not gonna sue me that I'm gonna just go Google, Seth Clarkson margin of safety PDF, and you can download it. Okay. Go look it up. At is a good book. It's really good at it. He invests the way I do the way Danielle's doing it. And the way we want you guys to do it, which is by wonderful businesses by their own sale know, what you're doing make sure they have a margin safety and go forward like that with a few things in focus so book, what does he put in? He put in at that. Did sound. But every time you read it from a different perspective. You get something different something out of it. But let me tell you. I brought him up because he just published a twenty page paper to his investors that is a little scary. And it basically is taking a similar. Position about the economy, and where we're at at the end of a long credit cycle with a ton of debt that we are pretentiously in for a real firestorm of recession here potential depression, potential wars potential riots potential a lot of a lot of really unpleasant things that happen at the end of a credit cycle when you simply have too much debt worldwide. Suggestions for that. Or is it up here? Let's all run around screaming. It's it's very much in the in the. It's an intellectual analysis of the situation. That says okay here, we are this thing then wrap. Yeah. It's a sit. Where did you get that? That's straight outta ranger training. It's come on. That's like a normal thing to say that from the army. All right. So sit rep. All right. Still everything dad. That's pretty good. That's the price to hear that coming from you. So anyway, this is a essentially someone who's knowledgeable about the will the woods that. We're in saying, you know, that sound that you hear that rumbling. That's a lion. All right. And it doesn't mean we're about to be eaten. But it means there's a lion right here. And we need to be aware that one of the outcomes of standing here near Lyon is that we get eaten. We need to take appropriate action. And I think Seth isn't writing so much for the investor as he's just writing in general this a macro economic potential nightmare coming at us. And I just think it's so interesting that he's doing that right on top of Ray Dalia doing pretty much the same thing. And these are to the best investors that I know of outside of Warren buffet and Charlie Munger could contrast that with with what Buffett and Munger doing. Well, it's not contrasted compare it to what Buffett and Munger doing Munger is hasn't bought stock in a while. And buffet is camped out after buying a bunch of apple he still camped out on over one hundred billion dollars. Double what he's ever had in cash in the history of Berkshire? And you know, you, you know, warns the last guy on the planet can say scary things about the market. But I think Warren saying scary things about the market. I think he's put it between the lines and saying that we have a rainstorm do it didn't come last year. It could've it could come this year. It could come next year. But it's coming so compares now got Dali oh buffet. I think Charlie would agree with Warren. I Charlie sitting up there while we're in saying this Stephanie and saying nothing and Charlie is not a guy to stay silent sort of hear all this stuff. And I'm like, all right. They think something recession, essentially. It may be a major one is coming like. Okay. Smart people think that like what what am I supposed to do with that getting cash? Yeah. But I've been hearing that for three years. Yeah. And that's right. It's the right advice because. You're in a market that's being substantially manipulated by federal reserves all over the world trying to prevent what is nearly inevitable. And that is the business cycle. They're trying to prevent it then and they're trying to a lot of reasons they probably kept us out of her depression back in two thousand nine so good for them. But now, you kind of wonder how much of this politically driven, right? When you got guys like Trump screaming from the rooftops to leave the interest rates alone. You know, because of what straight up politics, you know, you want success under his watch as every politician does. So you've got this basic macro issue that we've I don't think in the history of the country ever seen anything like the level of involvement in the market. And so there's there's very little time left. I think given what we see from Munger Buffett Dalia, Clermont and many other very good investors. There's very little time left. I think it doesn't hurt to be cash for three years. If you're in cash when it hits the fan, and you can take advantage of that. And that of course, is the is the goal is not that we think it's the end of the world the goal is to have capital available to invest when everybody else thinks it's the end of the world. That's what we wanna do. We want to invest in one thousand nine hundred forty two right? We want to invest in one thousand nine hundred thirty two we don't want to invest in one thousand nine hundred nine we don't want to invest in two thousand seven oh, you wanna do is exit. Then and invest in two thousand nine in
"munger buffett" Discussed on WHO NewsRadio 1040 AM
"The river in webster county also so for the cedar and west fork of the des moines river and blackhawk emmett humboldt palo alto and pocahontas counties our top national story in hawaii it's not the water it's the lava the national guard has been activated and evacuations ordered as lava continues to flow from the most active volcano on the big island lava flows from the kilowatt volcano have already swept through at least one neighborhood about seventeen hundred people have been evacuated authorities say extremely high levels of sulfur dioxide gas have been detected in the evacuation area it's all happening after scientists at the hawaii volcano observatory reported a five hundred foot long fisher that began erupting with lava yesterday evening they say the eruptions not over there just waiting to see what happens next a seven week old baby from eastern iowa is recovering at the mayo clinic after an overthrown softball hit her on the head do anything at first and then it was just a bloodcurdling sporty little mckenna holding gay was airlifted to mayo where she's being treated for bleeding on the brain her mom cassie and baby mckenna we're watching the game from the bleachers in waverly ball flew over the fence and hit her and her baby this happen union never imagined happening gm ever like i don't i don't even have words to describe everything that i've been through in the past not even twenty four hours sear finally calmness very reassuring she tells k wwl tv the doctors are taking it hour by hour they're not sure how long little mckenna will be in the pediatric intensive care unit billionaire investor warren buffett's getting set to host his annual berkshire hathaway shareholders meeting this weekend more than forty thousand people are expected at the three day event it begins today omaha the eighty seven year old will be at the center of the event along with his longtime sidekick ninety four year old charlie munger buffett will spend up to six hours fielding questions from investors the.