4 Burst results for "Muhammad El Irian"
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"muhammad el irian" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Reviewed like journalist coverage of that time and people were fairly critical of the fed. And in fact, the set announced I believe they're going to do QE in November of 2008. And the market didn't actually bottom until March of 2009. In the last cycle, the fed kitchen sink every single facility had on March 23rd, which also happened to be the exact date that the stock market bottomed and that bond yield started declining. What happens if people start questioning whether central banks are infallible and can actually make mistakes no longer know the future and no longer control the destiny of markets? I think that that's again in the set of concerns I have, it's the notion that we're really used to the fed being able to address any risk off. Some are huge, and some are important, but maybe they're more vicks of 30 or 40 type events. So you can go back to August of 15 with China, early 16. There was an energy price crack and some issues in the high yield market. We certainly seen some risk offs along the way. But during each of those, the fed was able to say, well, listen, inflation is below target. We've typically run one and a half percent trying to get core PCE to 2% and we've been consistently low. And so the fed's been able to say, well, now we've got this risk off the vix has risen, financial conditions have tightened. That's sort of a policy tightening in and of itself. And so we're going to try to talk the market off the ledge. And because we're below target, we can do that. This is different. This is, okay, so now, if and when you do get the next risk off, and it's inevitable, it doesn't have to be a financial crisis. But it's just a different set of circumstances when inflation is running so far above target. There's not the same flexibility to ease to try to execute some form of forward guidance to try to juice things back up. It's a much trickier environment. And so on the credibility question, I do think that there's a lot of talk these days around that. You see Muhammad el irian is especially, I would say professionally critical for him. Larry summers has been saying a number of things Bill Dudley just published a piece. There is a lot of very, very thoughtful folks who have seen this before. Questioning whether this is the right track for the fed to go down. And I think at the heart of it, what I pick up on is this sequencing of, okay, we've got to do this first..
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"muhammad el irian" Discussed on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
"Is rising quite quickly and we could say inflation is a closet default or a kind of creeping default on risk free assets. The important part is that both of those assets and the performance of them has had and have huge implications for other asset classes. And yes. What happens if the market starts losing faith in central banks? And the reason I ask is you brought up kind of the financial crisis. And I recently reviewed like journalist coverage of that time and people were fairly critical of the fed. And in fact, the fed announced I believe they're going to do QE in November of 2008. And the market didn't actually bottom until March of 2009. In the last cycle, the fed kitchen sink every single facility had on March 23rd, which also happened to be the exact date that the stock market bottom and that bond yield started declining. What happens if people start questioning whether central banks are infallible and can actually make mistakes no longer know the future and no longer control the destiny of markets? I think that that's, again, in the set of concerns I have, it's the notion that we're really used to the fed being able to address any risk off. Some are huge, and some are important, but maybe they're more vicks of 30 or 40 type events. So you can go back to August of 15 with China, early 16. There was an energy price crack and some issues in the high yield market. We certainly seen some risk offs along the way. But during each of those, the fed was able to say, well, listen, inflation is below target. We've typically run one and a half percent trying to get core PCE to 2% and we've been consistently low. And so the fed's been able to say, well, now we've got this risk off the vix has risen, financial conditions have tightened. That's sort of a policy tightening in and of itself. And so we're going to try to talk the market off the ledge. And because we're below target, we can do that. This is different. This is, okay, so now, if and when you do get the next risk off. And it's inevitable. It doesn't have to be a financial crisis. But it's just a different set of circumstances when inflation is running so far above target. There's not the same flexibility to ease to try to execute some form of forward guidance to try to juice things back up. It's a much trickier environment. And so on the credibility question, I do think that there's a lot of talk these days around that. You see Muhammad el irian is especially I would say professionally critical for him. Larry summers has been saying a number of things Bill Dudley just published a piece..
Squawk Pod
US Withdrawal From Afghanistan Complete
"Us military though completed its withdrawal from afghanistan ending a twenty year war. major general. Christopher donahue is the last soldier to board the final plane that left kabul yesterday and jeffers joins us now with more morning aiming good morning. Joe yup america's longest war ended yesterday at three twenty nine pm eastern time and unfortunately joe. Us officials acknowledged that there were americans who were not able to get out who were left behind in afghanistan. Anthony blinken secretary of state yesterday said that there were under two hundred americans who still wanted to leave who remain in now the. Us now has suspended. Its diplomatic presence in kabul. It's transferred operations to doha cutter. So for now. The diplomatic operation will be from a distance in terms of dealing with afghanistan. The us is going to work to reopen the kabul airport for civilian traffic as soon as possible and the commitment he said to get. Our afghan allies out has no deadline. So that mission is going to be ongoing. How they're going to get out. Though is the trick blink and explained yesterday what's going to happen next. Here's what he said. We're also working to identify ways to support. Americans legal permanent residents and afghans will work with us in who may choose to depart the overland routes we have no allusion. Any of this will be easy or rapid this will be an entirely different phase from the evacuation. The just concluded now. General kenneth mackenzie. He's the head of centcom said yesterday in a briefing with reporters at the pentagon that there was a logic to why the united states decided to leave even as there are. Some americans still left behind. Here's what he said. There's a lot of heartbreak associated with this departure. We did not get everybody out that we wanted to get out. But i think if which stayed another ten days louis. We wouldn't have gotten everybody out that we wanted to get out and they're still would have been people who would have been disappointed with so the calculation was for force protection that is the us soldiers and afghan soldiers who regarding that airport ultimately the risk of taking on more casualties overwhelmed. The potential benefit of getting any more americans out as general. Mackenzie said
The Savage Nation
The Economy in a Nutshell
"On great to talk to you thanks for coming on the show thank you for having me online so when we start with a a quick review of today's economic report obviously a fairly solid jobs report came in a little bit under what people had expected but at the same time we are saying the stock market reaching new highs across the twenty nine thousand threshold briefly earlier today what what do you think we stand in terms of the broad American economy right now a global economy in the US economy is in a good place look for growth rates to be at two OO somewhat above the level of last year we have an amazing labor market crew that created two point one million jobs lost here which is a very high number of full so let him in the economic cycle don't forget this is the longest expansion in history the big puzzle ban is while tweeters crowing foster giving that unemployment is at record lows that that's a wheel puzzle for economists but otherwise the economy is in a good place so when we look at the future of the economy as an article yesterday suggesting that people think that we may be entering an economic slowdown do you agree with that because obviously the United States has experienced some sort of recession depression basically once a decade for the last hundred and some years so did you think that an economic slowdown is anywhere here on the horizon or is it just going to be sort of another blacks one like we had in two thousand seven two thousand eight this is a really hard to push the economy into recession unless you get a huge a policy mistake or a massive market accident it has too much momentum to go into recession anytime soon in particular the consumer has too much momentum we could do better however business investment in particular has been disappointing but for that you need some pro growth policies you need to add to the deregulation and the tax cuts impact we have we've had you need an infrastructure effort for example so we can do all locked to increase world but otherwise will continue to be powered by the consumer and hopefully business investment respond at sometime Dr Mohamed el Erian chief economic adviser and I only us so that there's been a lot of talking it was a lot of talk in the last couple years that president trump's trade policy obviously trump seem to bounce between two perspectives one was his sort of long time perspective that tears are inherent good and then there is the perspective of some of his economic advisers which that can be used as leverage to actually lower other countries it seems like the latter perspective maybe the Tory as we can we can help over all has drums trade policy been damaging to the economy or do you think has been beneficial to the economy so it may have been somewhat damaging initial term but dad damage who would be the minimal compared to the benefits of a fairer trade system I think the big quake under this administration has been weaponized being economic tools and doing so in a way that other people didn't know how to respond to but it's become clear to economic partners that the US has a relative strength of the U. S. is saying enough is enough so we are getting more concessions I would say less treating from others than we had before mine is still the big question mark we have a phase one deal we don't have yet to face to deal and all the important issues will be interfaced to deal so that remains to be seen but I think that was given a very clear message to the rest of the world that we should participate in if we put too much fairer trading system well well well things seem to be going pretty well economically certainly for the United States and globally as well there there's been some worry expressed by I think you express this worry that if the United States if the goal were to enter a recession at the central banks may have already given away all their leverage to exit recessions well things seem to be going well right now the central banks have been lowering interest rates in some countries all the way down to zero or even below zero what what tools are available if in fact the economy should take some sort of unexpected downturn not enough money tools from we rely for too long on central banks that's true in Europe where they haven't had the deregulation they haven't had tax cuts so they rely excessively on central banks the C. B. the European central bank has become ineffective if not counterproductive when it comes to economic growth so that's a major concern and is a major concern because as good as we look in the west the west of the world is much more fragile Europe could easily be tipped into recession hi Tina it's trying to navigate really hot translation so I do worry about the rest of the world ban and don't look for central banks to come to rescue because they are becoming less effective if not counterproductive and this is one of the questions moving forward is it seems as though the United States fairly well structured for the foreseeable future at least until all of our outstanding debt comes in hits us sometime down the road which certainly will happen it's already happening in Europe so if you were to forecast the next five to ten years with regard to the Europeans how likely do you think it is that we see a really serious economic contraction in Europe due to the fact that the fiscal policy of the tribes Muskerry policies but they certainly have not gotten anything under control in terms there that that's right I mean think of a team that that is suppose foreseen that's supposed to be playing in the major leagues and the five key players all old completely distracted which is watched what's happening in Europe the U. K. still focus on brexit font is dealing with protests industry I need to go into a political transition I mean it's early yet to form really stable government so you five key players the one that would move the needle all distracted when it comes to poll growth policies and in