39 Burst results for "Morgan Stanley"
Fresh update on "morgan stanley" discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek
"The economic data that we got earlier today. We spoke with Molly Smith who's economics editor at Bloomberg news. And she said, you can really look into this in the sense of like, this is what the fed wants to see, which was kind of surprising to me to hear because we did see the S&P 500 really move lower right when that manufacturing data came in softer than expected. But again, she said, hey, this is what the fed is trying to do. Yeah, got it. So a lot of folks, of course, looking at that economic data, you put it all together and you have a market that's basically just kind of hanging out if you will. Remember, a lot of those technical levels that were tested yesterday looks like that is going to be the main test, the main oscillation, the main push and pull here. The S&P down. Basically, we're actually higher by fractionally less than a tenth of a percent. Similar story for all the other major indices, if you're looking for any leadership both to the upside or the downside, you're going to have to keep looking. You talk about technical levels, 200 day moving average is where the S&P 500 closed at yesterday. It closed above that level. So we're just kind of bouncing around that level right now. And in terms of industry performance, completely mixed. Communication services and info tech leading the way Netflix is doing very well meta is doing well. Textures are also still continuing to rally after yesterday's big gains. On the downside financials and real estate investment trust, interest rate sensitive sectors are doing less well off by 6 tenths of 1% and half of 1%. Yeah, so some of the individual movers, Salesforce shares moving lower here on the back of their earnings. I also want to bring your attention though to what's been going on with black stone. The shares down about 7% right now. This on the back of that story, that the company is actually limiting redemption requests in one of its main real estate ETFs, a real estate ETF, the primarily focuses on commercial real estate. That also comes on the same day that we're generally that Wells Fargo is actually a reducing its workforce and its mortgage business and primarily residential mortgages. So a lot of cracks right now in the real estate market to keep an eye on Blackstone down 7% Wells Fargo guys down about two. And we go back, of course, do that economic data that we had a little bit earlier this morning. A lot of folks were focused of course on those PC numbers. They did soften and that is what the fed wants to see. But we also got a contraction in our U.S. manufacturing PMIs. And this was significant here. When you take a look at both the PMIs and the ISM data here in the U.S. as well as abroad, you now pretty much have full contraction across the board globally in the manufacturing sector, and that really right now. I think is what the market might be reacting to. The idea that the inflation fight may potentially be winding up, but ahead of us, we now have to deal with weakening economic conditions. Well, I'm going to say romaine is walls, don't despair because Mike Wilson over at Morgan Stanley, the chief U.S. strategist. He says in terms
Fresh update on "morgan stanley" discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"Price, can you attract customers and keep them as your price rises? Look at what's happening in the steel stocks, for example. You mentioned chemicals earlier. This is still a poke in their head up. And this is telling us we're an environment where inflation is not going back to zero. I don't think it's U.S. steel is still X I haven't looked at that in years. But people are talking, people are talking about how the real economy is getting its revenge. That has been the theme for 2022, and it's rearing its head and that's why you're seeing the inflation under underpinning some of these commodities sectors. How much does that mean that the other areas that got bid up and thinking big tech in particular can't really come back in the same kind of way and won't necessarily drive indexes to the same extent? I think you're onto it. We obviously seen it this past year, but I think going forward, we're going to have the same sort of issues. If your company that's operating only on unit growth, your unit growth is going to be really strong to get you through. And tech is mostly in a growth. So I think they will be a lagging sector again. What are your clients doing? You cross mark out of Houston and nationwide and all that. Are they loaded up their eyeballs in cash? What are they actually doing with their money? Yeah, so people are asking a lot of questions. Too many people are frozen. But they're making investments. You have to hold their hand and draw them to the worst of the water. Let it go. It's something like that. It's something like that. But they're doing some things. They're doing more educated and buying some alternatives, like we have an equity market neutral product. That's getting some attention. You have an equity market neutral product. Yes. Bob Dole, the great optimist. Thank you so much across Mark. All the best. Global. Thank you. Investments here. And Lisa, some optimism. I don't want to oversell a tape here right now, but off the economic data that gets us to jobs tomorrow. My key lectured me forget about year over year time we're moving too fast. You go month over month and those statistics and PCE deflate are actually pretty good. Yeah, you know, I don't buy it. I'm gonna be honest. I don't buy it. And this is the reason why, because you saw an upside revision to some of the data. So it came down less than expected, but it came to the same levels that people were previously expecting. Right now, you're seeing confirmation bias in markets, pretty much uniformly. People are taking this rally and running with it. I keep wondering whether anyone's actually pulling back from the pessimism that starts next year, they're basically just trying to get ahead of it. But this is a timing issue. It's not that people think that the clouds evolved. To be fair to you, I'm hearing that as people rationalize this bull market, including what you're from mister Wilson of Morgan Stanley, and that everybody's doing timing. Everybody's trying to figure out we're going to go up this and then we're going to go down and we're like this and I don't hear anybody like Bob Dole saying would you just buy amalgamated copper and hold it? I don't hear that. A lot of people actually are talking about the commodity sector because it has been under invested because of some of these secular trends that are going to boost them. Again, China reopening, cold or winter, recession. What's great about it is on this anniversary of Bloomberg surveillance and all that. Lisa Brown was John farrow in Tom Keene. We in strong with bob Dahl who actually knows what the Dow Jones Industrial. Fair. John isn't here to rebut that. Discuss. Rumor has it will be here tomorrow. What is dedication? The thing that drives me every day is dead is very un we call them day to
Fresh update on "morgan stanley" discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"Better revenue growth because of high nominal GDP, how does that redound upon margins? Yeah, this has been an ongoing debate. We've had a client since really April. We were out in front of earnings disappointing at some point into 23. But that does contrast with this idea that we live in a nominal world. GDP nominal GDP is probably going to stay positive next year, even if we have a recession. Ellen's forecast next year is for now the recession, but basically 0% real growth. So it's going to feel like a recession. But to your point, if you get an inflation still positive, you can have positive revenue growth. We have that baked into our numbers time. Our base case of a $195 next year. As soon as we still have positive revenue growth of about 3% due to not only GDP staying in positive territory, but it all comes down to margins. And this is the part of the story that we think is underappreciated by a lot of investors, which is inflation is what drove profits higher. And so as inflation comes down next year, as we're forecasting, we have inflation going back towards two, two to 3% by the end of next year, that's actually bad for equities. Good for bonds, but bad for equities because it's going to crush margins. And this is the story that we think is, once again, underappreciated, the negative operating leverage that we're seeing in business models is companies scramble for supply, 6 to 8 months ago, and over higher, that has to be run through the income statement now. And that's going to be that's going to, that's going to be what makes the low in the first and second quarter. So I would say where people are maybe catching up on the earnings story, I don't think they're bearish enough in terms of this margin degradation. Mike, you said that perhaps could be a trough of 3000 to 3200 in the first quarter of next year as we do get that reality check from earnings. Have the recent data with respect to the latest CPI with respect to some of the other metrics that people are seeing a softening in and that we're hearing a change in tone from the rhetoric of J pal, perhaps. Yesterday, have you changed that view? Does that seem further away in terms of that bare case scenario? Well, once again, I mean, the bare case scenario assumes we have probably a modest recession next year. And in that scenario, all that happens is revenue growth goes flat. Maybe slightly negative, but that will make the negative operating leverage even worse. And so that's a $180 in earnings next year. So with a $180 in earnings next year, 3000 is not really a stretch. So look, we don't have a crystal ball, unfortunately. I wish I did. In terms of what I'm most uncertain about is the timing of this. We thought it could have actually happened in the fourth quarter of this year, meaning these earnings revisions, and that's one of the reasons we flipped positive in October if we felt like it's going to be pushed down. And that's what's happening. Could it get pushed out further into the middle of next year? Yes. Do we think we can avoid it? No. So we think at a minimum we'll take out 3500. Sometime in the first half of next year. And yes, that bear case, unfortunately, is alive. And that's 3000. In the meantime, Mike, let's get one final call from you. What would you buy and hold right now guarantee your end? What would it be? And it could be away from the index. You tell me. Yeah, well, I think it's fun. I think that if you think about bear markets that are punctuated by either economic or earnings recession, we think we're going to get at least one of those. The earnings recession, the sort of order of operations is very clear. You want to buy a cat, you want to be cash first, then you want to buy treasuries, long duration, then you want to buy credit and you want to buy equities last. So we're already going to already overweight cash. So front end cash or you own backend treasuries. Now for a trade. We think it's NASDAQ or long duration stocks. We'll like that move in race lower. But that's more speculative. That's for the trading community. I think for the investment community and for asset owners, it's basically bonds. Mike, just phenomenal. Thanks for your time and let's catch up before yearend. Might Wilson of Morgan Stanley. Thank you. Hopefully. I think maybe in a couple of weeks time, there's a great piece. It's a fantastic interview with Mike Wilson and Bloomberg markets this month's edition. So check that out. You can check that out online as well. Tom, just phenomenal. Just a great call from Mike and the team and Mike would be the first to say this is a team effort, a massive team effort and Morgan Stanley. That's the clinic there in the heritage and I give Steve roach all the credit in the world for this. They argue like no other firm. It is part of the culture. You have an opinion, you state it and you're allowed to publish a different angle. That's the heritage of Morgan Stanley economics and it goes right over to their sell side debate from decades ago and of course the great work Mike Wilson's done. And that creates a fervor that you don't have at a lot of other firms. Equity futures this morning, elevated again, just a little lift here, Tom. Wilson moved the Mark? Up to 10.1% about that. Equity features. It's down a little bit. Now now, down to base point on the ten year three 59 80 from New York City. With Tom Keane and Lisa rabbit saint Jonathan farrow
Fresh update on "morgan stanley" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak
"I'm Nathan Hager, after yesterday's surge, futures are taking a bit of a breather this morning. Let's head right over to the first bird breaking news desk for today's morning call. Here's Bill maloney. Good morning, Bill. And good morning, Nathan. That's right, modest loss in the futures after yesterday's jump with Dow futures down 63 points has to be dropped three and a half and NASDAQ futures fall by 27. The U.S. ten year 3.6% gold is up 12 oil is in the green and Bitcoin is trading little changed. Japan rose .9% overnight while European markets are also trading in the green this morning and back in the U.S. on the economic front at 8 30 PCE and initi Jas claims at 9 45 manufacturing PMI and a 10 o'clock. I assume manufacturing after the bill of night Salesforce reported shares down 6% in the pre market and snowflake Q four product revenue forecast missed estimates. In deal news, HPE is said to have expressed interest in cloud from new tanks, and in other news, JPMorgan said U.S. stocks to sink in the first half of 2023, and Taiwan semi plans to make more advanced chips in the U.S. at the urging of Apple. Wrapping things up, Otis worldwide was cut to equate to Barclays, Capital One cut to underweight. Over at Morgan Stanley. Live from
Elon Musk Is One Step Closer to Owning Twitter
"Out. Let's get to Elon Musk because I think it's increasingly likely that this guy gets Twitter as much as it's driving some people in certain circles quite crazy. I detailed yesterday. I went through the SEC filing and I looked at what the actual financing looked like. There is a new development I'm going to get to that just momentarily because it looks like he's creating a holding company that could apparently be for maybe three companies. Anyway, let's talk about the money. He's got 25 and a half $1 billion from banks, led by Morgan Stanley, so Morgan Stanley, who is his adviser, investment banker in this. And they've gone out and worked with other banks to get him the financing 25 and half $1 billion lined up from the banks. Now, part of that is a margin loan against his shares of Tesla, 12 and a half $1 billion. Margin loan against Tesla don't forget Tesla has just been killing and earnings of 81% the other day. Not entirely clear whether that upside can continue only because of the supply chain problems that have been going on. But again, Tesla just really, really doing well proving, I would say once again, the brilliance, the brilliance of Elon Musk. $21 billion is going to come out of his own pocket. He's shelling out 21 billion of his own money for Twitter. This is how much he cares about this project, which makes sense. You look at some of the other things that he's been in and whether it be the EV industry, which has been obviously important to him, whether it's the SpaceX, another industry, clearly clearly very important. In his view, it is important to own Twitter because this is otherwise threatening in his view to democracy. He's described Twitter and did this the other day on a TED Talk as effectively the town square. And so he wants to edge on the side of allowing a lot of speech, a lot of diverse speech as opposed to immediately shutting it down and you know where I stand on that. So I think he's got a really good shot at getting this company. The flip side would be does somebody else say, wait a second, we just don't want him to have it. And so we're going to partner up and get all the money we can and make this absolutely impossible for him to take Twitter out.
Elon Musk Sweetens the Deal for Twitter
"It. So Elon Musk, sweetening the deal here. He says he's come up with the financing, which is really pretty significant. He's been clearly working on that Morgan Stanley was his banker. Morgan Stanley, as well as a group of other banks, they have lined up the financing with him and he's got, he's got the means to do this. He's also got the means to actually sweeten the deal by about three $1 billion. So 25.5 billion in financing is coming from this group of banks, as I said, led by Morgan Stanley, including a 12 and a half $1 billion $1 billion worth of margin loan against Tesla shares that Elon owns. The rest of the money is actually coming out of Elon's pocket. $21 billion is going to spend right out of his own pocket to get this done at three and a half $1 billion more than the original $43 billion offering. So translation here, this guy is serious and it's going to be increasingly hard for the board to turn this one down. There is a board meeting coming up later next month, Jack Dorsey, his term is actually expiring, we'll talk about that in a little bit. But this meeting is going to be pretty
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Can not continue The White House says Trudeau promised quick action to enforce laws and restore the open passage of crossings between the two countries I'm Brian chuck And I'm Charlie pellet At Bloomberg world headquarters Risk assets added to weekly losses as the UK and U.S. advised citizens to leave Ukraine as tensions with Russia rise a down week with the S&P falling 1.8% in addition to Ukraine ongoing questions about inflation the Federal Reserve and the pace of interest rate increases Emily Roland is co chief investment officer at JH investments So we actually think that the fed comes into this year like a hawk and leaves this year like a dove as we see growth the accelerating We see inflation coming off the boil Yes it's very elevated right now We've got to bring it back to those base effects Remember in February of last year CPI was only 1.7% Emily Roland of cage investments now what about the number and size of those rate increases Seth Carpenter is chief global economist at Morgan Stanley The fed is likely to front load hiking How much they continue with that at the end of this year and at the beginning of next year we'll depend heavily on how those month on month Friends look in Q four of this year Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley so where to invest Sam stoval is chief investment strategist at CFR research If we do fall into a bear market if we do have as a result of an inverted yield curve then defensive sectors are called defensive not because they rise in price but rather because they lose less than the overall market So I think it's more a matter of relative outperformance in underperforming absolute environment Sam stoval of CF RA S&P 500 Index down 85 points today down 1.9% the Dow down 503.1 .4% NASDAQ down 394 down 2.8% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie pellet This is Bloomberg.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
"Automotive revenue a little bit higher at 27% share of the combined operating income, which would have been just over $11 billion would have been 59%. And remember, we spent a lot of time talking about a lot of factors that suppressed Tesla's operating income in 2021. As Tesla's market share grows and their scale grows, their economies of scale grow, their profit share should grow even faster, especially as transitioning away from internal combustion engine towards electric vehicle is likely in my opinion to put pressure on the profitability of these other automakers. Jonas opened this note by talking about how some of these things are hard to see. Well, if even the top line is hard to see, then I guess the bottom line would be too, so we'll use a Tesla phrase here and say that this is not well understood. That could pretty much be Tesla's tagline at this point. Anyway, the other bullet in this Morgan Stanley note that I think drew some headlines today was Jonas saying that they expect Tesla to surpass a $300 billion revenue run rate by late 2026 at which point they estimate that would surpass both GM and Ford's combined global revenue. For context here, they are saying late 2026 but just to give some semblance of where they're at for that time period. Morgan Stanley is forecasting 4 million vehicles from Tesla for 2025. So that is a little bit higher among the range. I would expect there probably low for 2026, but it's not like they're one of those analysts out there at two and a half million for that period of time or something like that. Lastly on this note, they did include a little chart of how they expect unit share as well as revenue share for GM and Tesla to compare over time in the United States only. And where they see those inflection points happening. All right, next up we've got another Tesla recall this is going to be an over there update as well. So hardly worth talking about, but some headlines obviously anytime this happens. 800,000 vehicles here being the headline number. The issue was with the fasten seat belt chim possibly not chiming when starting a vehicle that is required by nitsa so Tesla learned of this made the determination that they would need to do a voluntary recall filed out with Etsy and here we are. Next we've got a quick update on Giga Texas, a new permit application filed yesterday has been found that is from Tesla. And this is for a project with the program name of cathode, and this is for an industrial use facility on 32 acres that Tesla's got there in Austin. So there shouldn't be too surprising. I think we've seen some of the drone flowers kind of allude to this previously, but either way, we definitely have heard Tesla talk about cathode production back at battery day, so good to see this permit application file. Next, we've got a report on the solar roof. This is coming from electric who says that they have learned that Tesla has informed employees that supply chain issues are now impacting the solar roof. Apparently they have written quote, most of the solar industry has been experiencing supply chain delays. These constraints are beginning to impact soil roof as well..
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"All right coming up in this half hour we're going to check in with Seth Carpenter Morgan Stanley chief economist Talk to him about U.S. economic outlook for 2022 amid inflation and interest rate hikes plus we're going to also speak with Chanel Vasa Bloomberg news Wall Street quarter talk to her about all things Wall Street I think I'm going to start with bonuses how good are they going to be on Wall Street this year but first let's go to Greg Jerry My business plan what Paul we're well off our earlier highs still in the green but off the earlier highs stocks climb It's about solid economic data that is getting the dip buyers going after the sell off to put the equity market on Facebook's worst month since the onset of the pandemic And we are still up as I said the S and ps up 8 tenths of a percent of 34 The Dow's up 9 tenths of a percent of 309 in the NASDAQ's up four tenths of a percent up 57 The ten years up 1530 seconds the yield 1.81% West Texas intermediate crude is moved into the red down three quarters of a percent at 86 70 a barrel comics goes down 1.7% At $1800 an ounce even The dollar yen is at one 1542 the Euro a dollar 1142 in the British founded dollar 33 78 Netflix by the most in a year after hedge fund magnet Bill ackman acquired more than 3.1 million shares in a vote of confidence following a recent collapse in the streaming giant stock price right now Netflix is up 6 and a half percent That is a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues now Pretty good to end all swing All right great Jerry.
Wells Fargo Launches Passive Bitcoin Fund for Rich Clients
"Wells fargo has registered a new private bitcoin fund with us regulators. The fund is operated in partnership with the breakdown sponsor night gig as well as investments who've worked together on other funds such as i believe the morgan stanley bitcoin funds. According to a coin desk source the new wells fargo fund is passively managed earlier reports had suggested it would be an actively managed fund for wealthy clients on top of the wells fargo news j. p. morgan's passive bitcoin fund. Also a partnership with nine was also filed with the sec. Today so if you wanna know what people think of bitcoin just keep watching what they do not what they say next on the roof today. These scars of past crypto winters run deep according to a report from the wall street journal coin. B.'s has a pretty significant cash reserve at the end of june those reserves stood at four point three six billion dollars. That's up from one point. One billion at the end of last year quinn basis. Cfo lsu haas said we want to ensure that we maintain those cash reserves so can continue to invest and continue to grow our products and services in the event that we go into crypto winter. She also said that part of it could go towards acquisitions. I just want to point out that in a market that so many think is absolutely batty because it's disconnected from fundamentals. Queen base as a company is not only profitable but is keeping a large number of cash reserves on hand in the event of a rainy day. Something which basically no other companies do. So i don't know. Man maybe crypto has something figured out that other industries have forgotten last on the brief today. Brian quinn tens is stepping down from the cftc. Brian quinn tens is one of the most vocal advocates for crypto among the us regulatory ranks. The commissioner's term technically expired. Last april and he had previously planned to step down by october twenty twenty but ended up sticking around which he's legally allowed to do until the end of this year. He has been fierce about giving crypto a fair shake in policy discussions as well as advocating for the cftc's role in regulating crypto. According to the wall street journal he'll be gone by the end of the month and headed to the private sector where he intends to quote keep innovation particularly related to crypto currency and defy relevant to my career
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"Emergency away. One car breaking down away from complete economic instability. And at the same time. We don't have child care system. We don't have an elder care system. We don't have the infrastructure for all of it and so we think what the pandemic did was it just revealed how precarious all of it has been. We did in fact have a childcare system wants in the us during world war two. The government realized that if it was gonna make rosie a riveter they have to figure out who was going to look after rosie's kids so the government gave grants to community groups to run nursery schools and daycares for the war effort. Ben we're fighting the war. They needed someone to work so they actually wanted women to work therefore they created the system so that women could go to the factories that rosie the riveter could be out there making weapons. Basically what you're saying is within the society and the government valued women working. It addressed the problem. I think that is what i am saying. Yes but when the war ended so did publicly funded childcare then along came the nineteen fifties images of the happy housewife that were sold really pro actively sold advertising as this is the right thing and then you also had pop science and kind of junk science telling you about the only way that you can successfully raise a child that the mom is there right. So we've internalized all of these different pieces and we continued get conflicting messages about it where women do feel the sense of responsibility in the sense of guilt over. Not figuring it out in for not being able to do it. All in the early nineteen seventies when women were entering the work force. Congress passed the bill that would have funded childcare across america. Fifty years ago in december president. Nixon vetoed the comprehensive child development. Act and that is the last time we came this close to having a comprehensive childcare and early learning system now the birth rate is the lowest been in forty years and it is not hard to imagine why part of the reason people aren't having kids because they heard the story. They know how hard it is to do. All the things that they need to be able to work and have a family and they're they're not having it but they might reconsider. If childcare wasn't such an obstacle. It's the scaffolding that holds everything else up. It's just that it's been invisible for so long. We need to have a childcare structure. That's what enables there to be productivity. That's what enables people to hold jobs and show up every day for work and when it comes to scaffolding and stimulating the economy julie sees caregiving as an infrastructure investment. You can't build out the important infrastructure we need. You know roads bridges broadband if workers are worried about their families and so the economy is really about making sure that from the time a child is born until the time that you are in your older years or that your aging or l. That there is support for you and to that we need that care system so that women and parents could equally participate in building the roads and bridges and broadband. So i think it's kind of all comes back together. That way has this. Pandemic pushed us to a breaking point where something has to give something has to give doesn't it. We can build a fighter jet and also a submarine but we can't seem to do that and children's issues or social services or human services issues. But i cannot leave on that note. Because i am an optimism. I don't think we're gonna sprints went up. Julie does not think that we'll screw this up. But even as people and corporations are waking up to the importance of the care economy so much depends on every sector including government coming together to create a childcare system that everyone can use. So what's going to happen with this real moment of well one of the things we've learned in this series and over the pandemic there are so many opportunities to do better when we think about. What's next can we imagine a world where well i don't know you don't have to remortgage your entire house to care for your elderly parent pay for childcare. Heck i can imagine a shopping mall. That didn't
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"Is not cheap. A year of daycare can cost upwards of eleven thousand dollars per child. It is a huge issue. And i actually go through the county or assistance and it helps out a lie. It goes by your income. If i did not get that assistance through the county. Might kids wouldn't even be able to go to this day care center and then what was sonia. A working single mother do. Many parents are watching at this moment to see what happens with president. Joe biden's proposed one point eight trillion dollar american families plan it would fund education paid family leave and childcare. Now it's still has to go through congress but it calls for a system where low and middle income families with paid no more than seven percent of their income for daycare for kids under five it would also raise wages and provide training for childcare workers now congress is gonna do what congress is gonna do but this announcement signals a huge shift for wealthy country. The us is way behind when it comes to women in the workforce and it is not good for anyone. Here's a number for you. Fifty seven billion dollars. One study found that. That's what the. Us economy is losing every year because of the lack of reliable childcare options. I asked you if she thinks. This is a hopeful moment for mothers especially women of color a deal. I think that you know you have janelle jones as the economist at the department of labor who coined the phrase black women best. Which is this concept that if black women are doing well everyone's gonna be doing better until sonia is just going to have to keep going..
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"Sometimes i feel like i can't do it anymore or i'm overwhelmed and i feel like it's just too much. My husband has an essential job so he was outside working all the time. I mean i cannot tell you the number of times that i called him crying and then i get to the point where sometimes i do break down and cry in privacy. You my own room. Because i was like. I don't know if i could do this. This is so insane. Sunny mcdaniel and sierra mall are two of the working moms on our show today. Sorry really loud right now julie. Cashman is an expert on women and the economy and she's the third. Why does it take having women in the legislature to get movement on an issue as important as childcare..
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"One of the women turned on her phone and started playing mariachi music. All of the staff came out and lined the driveway and they were singing. She was the queen latina like our psyche. She was the queen of the house here and they pay tribute to her by playing one of her favorite songs as she left. Who was very touched that this is what it looks like. When we value our elders sylvia was able to make the best choice for herself and her mother just like. Irene and iris fu so taguchi made a different but equally good choice in hawaii because well they had good options.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"It's not going to work out for everyone for some of us a nursing home. Maybe our final destination over the last year. The prospect became a lot less appealing to a lot of people. So what can we do to make these facilities safer and more invited so i'm really so I lived in new rochelle new york. And i worked as a registered nurse at the hebrew. Hopefully each is one of the biggest nursing homes in new york city and despite the unprecedented challenges in the last year rudy gets into the elevator at work every day and pumps themselves up so that when the doors opened on his floor. He's got his game face on. I'm there were skates ready to go. You know so they give a report letting me know what's going on the floors on quarantine somebody's started. Id glove cultures if they gotta get swabs. So it's like is exciting at the same time on. I'm like pump ready to go. You gotta be. I can't go in there feeling depressed and feeling. Oh my god. How am i going to do this. I go in there with suzy. Everyday day with the best. I can do. Even in the middle of a pandemic even the middle of the pandemic and this pandemic has been pretty brutal for rudy in early spring last year he caught cove it from one of his residents one of the fifty residents in his care at any one time. I just had a face mask on. And when i gave him the medication she spit it. Back out onto my face and i could feel going into my eyes and i was like kind of scared at the time win. Washed it out this route. She died at the hospital couple of days later. I i really don't get sick. I started literally getting like one hundred and three. Fever thousand chills. I was reading for like three days. It was kind of hard for the and agreed to. My mom also got sick. She works in a healthcare field and she was sick for like maybe three months. I was trying to help her out with different things. My uncle contracted it he died. She's i'm sorry for your loss. Yeah so i mean and then my patients also you develop relationships. I had at least at least ten. I can remember that passed away. So i've been working woman twenty four years. It's going to be twenty four years now. I'm maybe we'll look at you. You don't look like you've been working anywhere for twenty years. What can i ask. How old are you yeah. I'm forty forty one next week. So he's seen a lot in those twenty four years and you might think with all he's seen in this past year alone rudy. Wouldn't want his own loved ones in a nursing home. Well think again his mother and his aunts care for his grandmother and he's watched the toll it's taken on them and it's very difficult or what the nursing home. You have a lot of different resources. You have the doctors the nurses during the aids. There you know you have physical therapy. This food. their desire titians. There's a lot of different services that we provide for residents and it takes the burden off the families. You know so i. I don't see a nursing home as a bad thing. I see as community but rudy often struggled especially over the pandemic to give his community of seniors. The care he felt they deserved even pre. Kobe would happen every so often that you'll be having one nurse for fifty patients. I'm telling you during this time right now. Recently last week was three or four days. I was working by myself with fifty patients with four. Cna's and difficult let that sink in. How much can one registered nurse and four certified nursing assistants or cna's do for fifty patients will crying out that we need more staff because we have more hands on deck were able to tackle the heart situation. Here's one thing that could make it easier. This past spring the new york state legislature passed the safe staffing bill. It requires homes to have enough staff to make sure each resident gets at least three and a half hours of one on one care each day plus the state cap the prophets for nursing homes. Which means they'll have to spend a least seventy percents of their revenue on caring for residents and forty percent of that on staffing. It's hoped that these changes will improve the quality of care for residents and working conditions for caregivers like rudy. But these changes won't solve the problems of low wages or shortage of workers. A recent study found that nearly three quarters of homes had difficulty finding enough staff to cover shifts but rudy is more committed than he's ever been there to take care of these people who've been through their lives ready already to like this is like there's sunset they're like you know. I don't think you can just like sometimes abandoned ship. I'm the union delegate. So i'm there for my residents and my coworkers are are you. Are you hopeful. I wouldn't be here. I wasn't hopeful. That's why i'm sticking around. I i don't know maybe i'm too optimistic or too much enthusiasm but that's how i live my whole life anyway. So if you wanna change the sunset years as rudy likes to call them then we have to value the people who care for the elderly. They've been essential to getting through this crisis and while rudy and his union advocated for better conditions for his residence and co workers. There's another revolution happening. The nursing home and caregiver industry is beginning a huge thing of the facilities themselves. Now if you close your eyes and imagine your standard nursing home you probably see something that looks like a hospital floor long hallways rooms with two or more people in them. A nursing station medical carts in wheelchairs. Iv's modern nursing homes resemble hospitals. Because well they grew out of hospitals after world. War two the. Us government shifted funding away from welfare homes for the elderly to facilities that gave medical care to the elderly. Now many of those facilities were built and managed by hospitals and when medicare arrived in the us in nineteen sixty five seniors with low incomes. Got money to pay for long term care homes. Then by the nineteen seventies the number of us nursing homes had more than doubled while there have been efforts to tighten regulations and improve the nursing. Home industry not much has changed in the last fifty years that is until a global pandemic encouraged us. So look around and see if there's a better way of doing things hello sylvia. How're you doing fine. thank you scenario. How are you today. i'm all right. I was Well i i. I have to say i'm sorry for your loss Well thank you very much. Sylvia's mother we bay mendoza died. In february she was ninety one years old and survived. Cancer had dementia and diabetes but sylvia literally beans when she talks about her mother as a young woman. She kind of looked like live taylor instead of the purple. Is she had green. Is she would wear her little gloves. In the early fifties and sixties and as she became older she'll always matching pantsuits. In fact one of the instructions she had for the funeral directors a little rouge a little pink lipstick part my hair to the side.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"Her mother irene. You fuso ran it for decades. After he died she would get up to thirty in the morning. Go to work. Get the bakery all setup and at seven o'clock she would come home and pick me up and bring me back to the bakery and feed me my favorite pastry which was a butter horn. Fresh couple orange juice which i had every day for at least fifteen years of my life. And that's why. I look the way i look now but she did that. And then after i ate iris's mom blended two fulltime jobs into one single mother and business owner and a tool club. Do it all over again. You don't get a sense at any flower landed.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"Hello i'm scenario clinton. I've been thinking a lot about this conversation. I listened in on recently. Beat lauren right and her father. Willie right thirty degrees. I'm thirty three. I am getting older. And i'm having to do adult things. Like talk to my father about him getting older and being his. What's it called catty. I'm here power of attorney s and that's that's all you everything. Is you so as to reality of living as it. Were you know we have to be prepared to leave. We have to prepare to die. Listen i know this sounds like a dark way to start a show but let's face it. We're a year plus into a pandemic that has been deadly for elderly folks. We're all thinking about how we ourselves will spend our senior years. And if we're lucky we're having conversations just like this with love humor and a bit of francs. I told you can't die. And i will. This is a weekly conversation for lauren. And willie right. It's a conversation that feels more urgent because of the pandemic right. now willie loves living in cleveland. God bless him where he's a program manager for the national caucus in center on black aging. But he's getting older. He lives alone far from lauren. And he has diabetes. He thinks about his future every single day. I don't wanna be in anybody's nursing hall thing that's just not my. I saw not an option like and you're also not like ninety but eventually that will be ninety god willing and but what does that look like for me. What is what is what is seventy five. What is eighty look like. What does that look like for me. Baby boomers like willie right are redefining. What the golden years can look like or lease. They're trying they're going to live longer. That could also mean. They're living with more health complications. Like dementia the pandemic has forced us to reckon with how we treat in value our elders and the people who care for them. So how can we make that care better if we tackle that. Now what could seventy five eighty or fingers crossed ninety. Look like for willie right for our parents or even for us. He's just like a beacon of light. When you have that program. Like i spent on debbie get through high can finally get her in a place. That has a private room where she does have some dignity and respect. I'm scenario clinton and this is now what's next an original podcast from morgan.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"Where <Speech_Female> <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> <SpeakerChange> <Music> <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Male> we are <Speech_Music_Female> restaurant <Speech_Music_Female> startup phase. <Speech_Female> We're not able <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> to employ a <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> hundred carriers fulltime <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> but <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> that's the job of the co <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> op and <SpeakerChange> the worker owners <Music> will party. <Music> <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Male> In addition <Speech_Male> to the food stores united <Speech_Male> co op. jennifer is <Speech_Male> leading gig workers <Speech_Male> united. That's <Speech_Male> toronto union. <Speech_Male> For all at <Speech_Male> base careers <Speech_Male> now. Is that just <Speech_Male> couriers. Unionizing <Speech_Male> in canada <Speech_Male> and the us workers <Speech_Male> have been organizing <Speech_Male> industries previously <Speech_Male> not <Speech_Male> known to be union <Speech_Male> friendly in january <Speech_Male> more than six <Speech_Male> hundred google employees <Speech_Male> in the us <Speech_Male> voted to unionize <Speech_Male> while workers <Speech_Male> at an alabama <Speech_Male> amazon <Speech_Male> plant voted <Speech_Male> against a union. <Speech_Music_Male> In april after <Speech_Male> a protracted <Speech_Male> and very <Speech_Male> expensive campaign <Speech_Male> and a <Speech_Male> recent gallup poll <Speech_Male> shows the <Speech_Male> highest support <Speech_Male> for unions in the <Speech_Male> us in <Speech_Male> almost twenty years <Speech_Male> at <SpeakerChange> sixty <Speech_Female> five percent <Speech_Female> in that we <Speech_Female> we stand at <Speech_Female> a precipice of <Speech_Female> change for <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> labor rights for <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> workers. <Speech_Female> Are we going to maintain <Speech_Female> <Speech_Female> the same standards <Speech_Female> that we have or <Speech_Female> improve on them <Speech_Female> or are <Speech_Female> we going to see ourselves. <Speech_Female> Go back to <Speech_Female> you know. Maybe <Speech_Female> what work was like <Speech_Music_Female> in the early nineteen <SpeakerChange> hundreds <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Male> think of the <Speech_Male> decades though centuries <Speech_Male> that workers pushed <Speech_Male> to shorten work <Speech_Music_Male> hours in the first place <Speech_Male> jennifer sees <Speech_Male> her work as <Speech_Male> an extension of <Speech_Music_Male> that movement. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Female> <Speech_Music_Female> I <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> think and i believe <Speech_Female> that
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"I'm jennifer scott and mckeag worker and deliver food and groceries on my bike for apps. Like uber eats enjoyed ash in fidora. And i am president of gig. Workers united fighting for workers rights. Jennifer has been a bike courier in toronto for over four years and rode many miles before becoming an organizer but one thing that has stayed consistent. Well there is no consistency. I think about you know what it means to like. Have a forty hour workweek and have weekends off. That sounds kind of like a dream. Because i never know how long i'm gonna be out working. I never know if. I'm gonna spend my weekend trying to make up for the rest of this week like a lot of people come to get work. Jennifer had a fulltime job before but she more money by delivery with something. She knew she could start right away and she recalls one of her first shifts sitting on her bike ready to go but no orders. Come in not and i remember like i. I still do this now. Is there something wrong with my phone. My phone get shut off. And i just i remember sitting at this intersection and it's hot and i'm thinking about how i will make up this money that i'm not making for this ended up being an hour and a half later just sat there waiting for an order and there there was just there was nothing i could do to make one come eventually. Jennifer lost her time job so she turned to the part time job. She already had food delivery. She found ways to make the system work better for her but still after years it's unpredictable even on a good day and so if i go out in the morning on a day and i say okay. I'm going to work for six hours today. And it ends up being busy and consistent. Then i'll stay out from maybe ton. Because i can't guarantee that it will be busy and consistent tomorrow or next week but it is today and so i should keep working and that's where things get a little bit scary scary because she'll push past her physical limit to make as much money as possible that day and all that uncertainty has an impact on other parts of her life as well. It can result in precarious access to food or precarious housing. Because you know no matter how hard you try. Not guaranteed income. And you don't quite know what it's going to be before you earn it. Remember celeste hadley. When her work life became unsustainable she may changes to control it. Workers in jennifer's position though don't have that option and yet is the very promise of flexibility that makes gig work attractive flexible immigrants to the gig. Economy is such an interesting word is the word that apps always used and the idea of what that means is what draws us to this work. But you know we learn that. The flexibility that we experience is really how flexible we are to work within the confines of one it is lucrative to work. And so you know foot working full-time gig worker can honestly mean clocking between fifty and eighty hours a week and when you're working eighty hours a week i mean like that's not great for you. It's actually really horrible. But it was The sort of promise of opportunity that prefer for jennifer and many other gig workers. It's more than the promise of money that keeps her going. Jennifer remembers a recent delivery that stands out and i can see this woman standing on the porch and she has three children who all seem to be under the age of six and they are just like so excited to see me and also she looks very tired and run out to me. And they're like do you have our burgers to have my milkshake like yes they do. There's so much joy. In that moment. I feel great making these kids feel happy and they're so excited like i want to enjoy that. She sees her work as a necessity for the office. Workers who start at five. Am and get a hot breakfast delivered for people who are genuinely homebound. In fact during the pandemic many places designated by couriers as essential workers and there is a feeling of pride in supporting your community and the knowledge that delivery work like this is a form of care work and so i think a lot of the reason that we stay in this industry is because we think that it is meaningful and we think if there were some changes to how it works it would be a good job in february of two thousand twenty jennifer and other by couriers who worked for the fedora. App won a precedent setting case. At the provincial labor relations sport it ruled that couriers by jennifer. Were not independent contractors. They were dependent contractors more like employees than freelancers that ruling opened up the possibility for canadian gig workers to join a union setting the stage for their us counterparts. Now if they wanted to careers could work together to bargain with apps for better working conditions and they wanted to incredibly. It's eighty nine point six percent in favor of a union. That's a feet. That's a huge percentage of people voting in one way the day that we found out. That workers voted. Yes for this union. Fidora had already declared bankruptcy and actually had already exited the country it was a bittersweet moment for jennifer and her fellow organizers but then they saw an opportunity and so not long after i i left in the summer and we had a few general meetings where we talked about like. What if we were to build a co-op what would that look like. Workers co ops have been around for a lot longer than the forty hour workweek. The idea here is workers own. The business the co-op jennifer is helping. The bill would partner directly with restaurants and retailers without the use of the big apps their main aim is to provide a livable wage and it predictable sustainable way of making a living. Now co ops are popular in food service healthcare. Even the tech world co ops are a very new thing for gig workers. Yeah so today.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"In eighteen. Seventeen manufacturer robert owen proposed breaking the day into three equal parts. Eight hours for work eight hours for play an eight hours for sleep over about one hundred years that idea too cold but slowly finally it was in one thousand nine hundred eighty six after last global pandemic after decades of fighting by labor activists that henry ford was eventually convinced that workers were more productive when they didn't work until the breaking point an eight hour workday allowed him to run three shifts in a manufacturing plant two shifts to make the cars one for maintenance and in one thousand nine hundred forty. Us congress standardized the forty hour. Work week that was essentially the end of the movement to short workout. Back to celeste. Who came to a point when she realized something had to change okay. This isn't sustainable. So i'm gonna quit my day job. And i'm gonna focus just on the writing and occasional journalism and i think i had this idea that a big part of the stress and overwork was because of my job or my boss and it wasn't because when i did that it got worse it got so much worse. Many of us cannot quit our day jobs. But many of us can relate to what made this situation worse for seles. Especially if you wanna fantasize about working from home and then you found yourself doing that during the pandemic only to realize that when you work from home you're not working from home you're living at work. Sound familiar cova. Took the work anywhere anytime. Ethos to a new annoying extreme. It just meant that works started to claim every single corner of lives. People would get tired of working at their dinner table or their desk and they'd get up and take their laptop out on the porch not realizing that what you're really doing is training brain to think. Oh the porch is also a place for doing work. I mean you can see. It's just led to a situation in which ray are never relaxed. Its my my example would be my nephew closing his work laptop and then opening his personal laptop. Yeah that's like a that's not a transition brother. Exactly exactly says we have to remember that technology is just a tool and if it's stressing you out that simply means you're using it rights user error what everybody hates to hear from their. It department right. It's just user error and you just have to fix the way that you're using it. Our brains have simply not evolved to allow us to in a healthy way. Have our hands on a tool. All day long celeste. Points out that our brains can't really distinguish between work and play when it comes to how we use our devices that means that slack. Sedova coup merge into one creating untouchable time away from work away from electronics. That goes a long way to relieving stress when you're doom scrolling for updates or just on instagram keeps you in sort of a heightened state flight or fight for me. I often go on long walks. And i try not to listen to anything or anyone. It's so great so glad that you said this pretty much everybody does or close to everyone can find five ten fifteen minutes and let those minutes untouchable and those are for you and you alone for no intrusions by as you say the news manmade sounds anything else. Let them simply be free from electronics. Just you and the world but time isn't going to solve a hall of our overtime problems for a lot of us working more sustainably which means not burning out means understanding the pressure. We're putting on ourselves. And why something. I kind of know firsthand. It was around my forty six. Th birthday that it was like oh i'm not an underachiever literally lake. You had thought before that that you were yes. My entire life and celeste camera late. Yeah i mean. I i feel you hard because you know. My grandfather was the dean of african american composers. He's like genius with a capital g. My great grandmother was born in slavery and then went on to have her life story. Read into the congressional record. So yeah i also was like i just. I just work a job. The idea that's west is getting to is that. We're not allowed to feel burnt out because our elders didn't have it is good or because we think that the work we're doing just isn't as meaningful or important and you know what honestly it was thinking about my family that helped me you forgive myself and also realize that i was doing it wrong because when i started reading like my grandfather's journals and stuff he did a lot of nothing now by nothing. She means he grew vegetables. He had hobbies. He did things other than work and was still extraordinarily successful. So what's going on with us. Celeste says it all goes back to what she said. At the start our culture makes us feel like we can't stop grind it. This is all working on our subconscious. That when you sit down and watch a movie or check your social media feeds or any of the other things that you do. You should feel guilty. This makes me think about children when my favorite questions to ask kids is what they want to be when they grow up. And you know what's funny. They almost always rhyme off some job. Like pilot dr astronaut. Here's an idea. What about being no happy. We need to really examine our goals because most of us are living by means goals and their means to an end. And we've lost sight of. What is that end. Is it to be happy. Is it to be healthy. Is it to have a loving family. And when i'm talking about how monumental this task is. That's what i'm talking about like this is reorienting your life reorienting. Our lives rethinking. How and when and why. We're working hours we do. Sometimes it takes a personal health crisis to start asking those questions. Sometimes it takes a harrowing national experience like nine eleven sometimes well seems like it takes a pandemic and a strange as it may sound the breaking point so many of us have reached working through this past year. That's exactly where seles finds the hope. I think globally and especially in the united states people are daily coming to that realization. I had in that plane. And they're thinking. Oh god i can't keep doing this. I can't keep doing this. I can't keep doing this. And that means that you either have to give into it. Which i hope nobody does or you have to think. How do i change my daily life so that this doesn't happen again no matter who you are what you do. You've likely asked yourself some version of that question. Over the last year and that personal question has led to a lot of difficult conversations row. Childcare family leave paid sick days and a new focus on mental wellness. All things we've talked about already in this podcast and yet most of us don't have control over our work hours and kansas clock off when we've had enough but as joe maria can attest that doesn't mean big sustainable work life. Changes are possible changes.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"You have to kind of go in with open eyes and understand the the monumental task ahead of you that you're literally have been brainwashed and you have to be deprogrammed. Celeste headley journalist and author is talking to you and me and she's talking about the forces that keep us all grinding to the point where we feel like if we're not working. We should be ashamed of ourselves. That if we're not productive we're not valuable all right. I've been there. She's been there is good chance. You've been there yourself celeste. Experience led her to write a book called. Do nothing how to break away from overworking overdoing and under living now. Do nothing sounds enticing. Especially for those of us addicted to the grind culture. You know that guilt you feel the need to keep working just a little bit longer thinking that may be it will be better tomorrow. I mean scenario. When was that actually true. When you worked the extra two hours and then the next day was to our shorter ever never know. So why do we keep doing it before. The pandemic are workdays. Were already long and too often. They were getting longer the so-called forty hour work week for many of us was stretching to fifty sixty seventy hours. We were already in such an epidemic of burn out globally that the w. h. o. Had recognized burn out as a an actual health risk in a syndrome for a lot of us. Things just got worse this last year people working from home saw the edges of their workdays gets even blurrier parents trying to fit zoom calls and slack messages around naps virtual school and those sacred hours after bedtime frontline workers powering through their days after nights after days. Then there are those of us who lost jobs and had to turn to the gig economy with this unpredictable. Ncaab hours actually unpredictable. Everything to be honest. This past year has been hard but it has forced us to examine how we work. And why we've been doing it like this for so long. We're going through life. Like people watching a movie with a doritos bag and at some point it just becomes mindless to constantly get another dorito out of the bag and then you get up at the end and you're like oh why do i have a stomach ache on this episode of now. What's next at original podcast from morgan. Stanley we are going to put down the doritos bag. And we're taking stock of the forty hour workweek and turning the people who thought long and hard about making work more sustainable from personal shifts. And when i'm talking about how monumental this task is. That's what i'm talking about like this is reorienting your life cultural shifts. The made the bold announcement to the company. We're going to move to the four day workweek two shifts. That could change the whole economy. How do we use the economy to create for ourselves. Sustainability and ownership and empowerment. I was scenario glutton. Let's go to work. I found myself at some point so over scheduled so over committed and just so unhappy and sick so for me. It didn't start as a book. It was just me trying to figure out what was going on. And how i could solve it celeste. The author of do nothing hit breaking point after a speaking engagements. She just couldn't cancel even though she was very sick. I was just like gripped with fear that i would lose my voice that i would sleep through the gig. 'cause sleep very well when you have bronchitis and so i was just pouring whatever over the counter drugs. I could get into my body. Just try to get through the next day and give that speech. She did it but pushing through actually pushed her over the edge and on the plane ride home. She felt awful. I started thinking. Why like wh why is my life. Why did i set myself up. So that i can't take a sick day and that's when i realized i have to figure out what's going wrong so i started researching. How she got there and she quickly realized she wasn't alone so many of us have crazy. Work lives that are simply unsustainable. It would help if we pause for a moment to get into the.
Wall Street Giant Morgan Stanley to Bar Unvaccinated Staff
"Stanley has a new policy. No covid vaccination, no entry to its New York City area offices starting July 12th. If an employee or contractor
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"Now. The group somewhere. Don't wanna frisbee the wobble but we have this to while we have to come party on the yard come on did not go to choir college staff while a new version of the electric slap on electric five. That's dr brenda allen. She's president of lincoln university in chester county. Pennsylvania is a public historically black university. Where all the students in normal times live on campus. Now dr allen taught at yale and smith she started in administration at brown university. She wanted to bring what she learned in. The ivy leagues back to lincoln her alma mater. I'm telling you i loved it here. I loved every bit about it. And again i tell. My students mini the skills. I use today in this job. That i have. I began to hone those skills on this campus. Planning balancing work in school. Listening doctor allen. I can't help but wonder how things might have been different for lassana if she had gone to a black college. What really matters. I think is how a student feels on campus. And i think it's also what they may need both personally and professionally so it historically black colleges one of the things that really important about this environment is that it's a very supportive environment. And i think that's consistent across most hughes now. Let's face it when it's the right fit a college. Campus can be transformative if not downright magical but during the pandemic well. It's been empty and that quiet has given us time to look at what's working. And what isn't i. Want to find out what doctor allen learned from this past year and how she saw the experience of college changing she says skill specific training like what lassana had has its value but for dr allen the real value of college in person not virtual is that it introduces you to ideas and whole possibilities. You could never have considered. I don't think you can take the place of for example. A student just wandering through our student success building seeing a sign the talked about study abroad and just wandering in and the next thing you know. They're spending the summer in ghana or in egypt or in ireland or something like that. The is serendipity sort of things that can happen. I think in a real environment is harder to do that in the virtual world. I mean i really wonder about this because you don't with the move to remote learning in some ways doesn't open up the question. About how much of that serendipitous experience do i need to. I need four years of it. S so again. I think that there are some people who will make the choice. In can thrive in a partial environment. Are you know do some years online. Do some years on campus on people do community calls i and save money. And then transfer and finish their baccalaureate degree at a four year college and for many habit for years on campus can be the most transformative experience that they can have also was a statistician for a while. And i look at this. From the perspective of data and that the online environment is the same but disproportionate. Numbers of african americans have gone to online schools and the graduation rates. The completion rates for them is just not as great. You know what. I can't help thinking about that. I keep thinking about the students and graduates all over america carrying a crushing one point seven trillion with a t dollars in student debt. A number that goes up every single semester and some of those students. Just like with sean. That end up with debt but no degree now. No one felt good about paying full or even discounted tuition for zoom courses over the last year but any signs that a year of remote learning is making colleges rethink the return on investment. They're offering not counting scholarships and financial aid a new student at georgetown. The private university. Where dr graham teaches will pay around seventy five thousand dollars for a year of tuition room and board and a year at lincoln a public university so full cost of attendance. Tuition fees. Room and board is about twenty two thousand dollars so in the scheme of things. We're still pretty affordable but but then you think about it though every night. Twenty two thousand dollars saying deputy. That's a lot of money. Well you know it's really. It's really about the total experience. These are good questions because these are things that people are really grappling with right now. So surely you can probably deliver education much more cost effectively if you do it. Virtually but it's really not the same. And i think as a residential campus. We offer a special experience that really our data shows helps individuals to go on and become very productive citizens so lincoln university for example is number one in pennsylvania for moving students from the lowest socioeconomic level to the highest they graduate and are able to be employed and earn at the highest socioeconomic ladder. That's social mobility mobility transformation belonging employment. There are no easy answers when it comes to evaluating the impact of college or a higher education on the quality of our lives is there. Of course. I should have asked you now that you were hard. You're pushing me. So you know i appreciate that. I think walking away really still committed to my about the importance. But you got me thinking about some other things that i need to consider this as well so i appreciate that growing reconsidering our ideas. These are all things that are supposed to happen in and around college but they happen off campus as well. remember jacob. My friend's son who opted to step away from online college to become an emt. Well he's going back. I think post pandemic life for me is ideally. It's you're finishing school. But i think it comes with all these experiences and understanding that this little bubble that i've existed in that i want to go back to is so small compared to all of the whole world the irony of that is knowing you a bit. I feel like it's leaving school for you to grow up. You're like a grown ass man. Now i think so. I think so and for me there are so many things that college teaches me that i could learn anywhere else but college.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Morgan Stanley Ideas Podcast
"So i i got my hands on a commodore sixty four. That was used in john from one of my mom's family rents and it. It really started getting interested in electric's general and computers specifically and then. That's when i was told about how people go to college for these kinds of things will. Shana grew up in east. Saint louis and her mother had her at fifteen. The shana was the type of kid that in fifth grade. She had already won her first scholarship for years. She knew more about computers than teachers. She got accepted to all the colleges. She applied to and a recruiter convinced her to choose a college in northern michigan. That was well aware that this was supposed to be the gateway for me to not be poor anymore not to be in the projects anymore. College was her ticket out. That's what they told her but when she had trouble with coursework and asked instructors and classmates for help. She kept hearing things like this. Maybe you shouldn't do this major at all and at the time. I didn't know what implicit bias was. So i didn't know that at the time they were saying that because i was black because i was a black female trying to be something that was stereotypically white male. But that's pretty much has classmates lasana. The only black woman in her program was at a loss and she turned to counseling where she was told. This is what discrimination as and. That's what you're going through. And i had to do all of this learning. I'm what seventeen eighteen nineteen years old Away from home for a long time for the first time. And i had to figure all this out and then finally talking to my counselor. And she's like you're out of money. You are stressed out. You're going through discrimination. You need to possibly considered leaving. So i did. How did that moment feel for you. Leaving college Our felt like giving up. I felt like i failed. Lake if you could paint a scarlet f. on the front of my closer on my forehead. That's what like even though you had been in school and one black girl in the computer science program. I mean even after the therapist tells you. Hey look this is what discrimination. You still felt like you had failed and not you know your teachers or desist. Found me yeah. My mom was actually very supportive of because she knew how depressing this would be for me but from within my community was like. Oh you're leaving. you're never going back. You're just going to be a dropout. The spider strong skills and three and a half years of college as well as experienced doing an office internship without a degree. Las shauna kinville get an. It job what she could get a job driving high school students to an after school tutoring program. She somehow managed to turn that into tutoring and then eventually with a lot of work a job at a different college as the it helpdesk manager. And i i kinda got the same spill again. You know you are really good at what you do but unfortunately you don't have a bachelor's degree so you can't move up certain ranks so i said you know what. Let me sit down. Take some courses. The shauna was back at college. This time in saint louis sixteen years after she left six credits short of graduating shanas. Instructors noticed her skills immediately and told her to apply to a new apprenticeship program called launched code. It did not take long before she got noticed. There's this facilitators like winking you start and i'm like start. What susan witkin you start your apprenticeship program to be a systems engineer at mastercard and i was like what are you talking about. Just two months after leshan started as an apprentice at mastercard. They her a fulltime job. Seven years later shawna is now the director of it at give and the ceo of her own consulting firm. Her experience her that traditional college is definitely not the best fit forever. I would be remiss to kind of still send people collar down a path that could end up in financial ruin for some when there are other viable. pass that. I with launch code. I paid zero dollars. And i didn't pay anything apprenticeship actually paid me. I was paid at that time. What fifteen dollars an hour. Which ironically was more than the job that i had left and i was a manager at that job now for her. The apprenticeship program was life changing in more ways than one. Let me wrap up with just the example of one person A woman named lana lewis in twenty fifteen president. Barack obama invited leshan to washington for the launch of tech hire a talent initiative that built on the success of launch coat and as she sat in the audience he suddenly called her by name worzel shauna. She's here today. There's a shot points me out in audience. And i stand up in the whole entire room like ranches and looks at me. I blink out. Because i was just like everything is kind of a slow motion so we got to create more stories. Like la- shops the tech hire initiative was all about pipelines helping people like shannon get pass barriers them out of the tech industry. Now companies like google apple. Npr ibm no longer require all applicants to have degrees especially protect jobs. Kind of going through that whole entire process. The first thing that comes to my head is that people to me. They lied to me about all of these things that they need. And the type of person that i needed to be in order to to get to this level you know and it made me feel sad you know still kind of tear up at this point to say twenty years of just going through all of this and what i knew was actually more than what i needed to know to do. The job that i was doing these days. Shopping sits incredibly important to share her story with kids. And when i tell kids the story. And i tell them. The obama story. I say i get. They're using traditional ways because we need to let people know what our stories are. So i tell them whatever you're doing as long as you've taken the time to think about it and explore options i say to keep going when you think of how much leshan had to push through to keep going. You gotta wonder about all the people who were chess-like her who did who couldn't or who were told not to have to think about. Also how much we all lost and yet the us still lags behind when it comes to earn and learn programs like the one that launched leshan but there is some hope after winning bipartisan support in the house of representatives the national apprenticeship. Act the twenty twenty. One is now working. Its way through the senate. Now if passes that means three and a half billion dollars would go to creating one million new apprenticeship opportunities.
Carrots Lead to the Right Outcomes
"So give me a little bit of background about you kind of outside of that world maybe on how you kind of got into the business and in the role you're in now and board involvement etcetera. We'll so you know i'm I'm a partnered up from ventures in a invest heavily in enterprise offer and And in southern california everywhere and with a focus on cloud and really cyber native cloud native cyber. And so i you know. My background is pretty evenly split between investing so i spent about a decade on the investing side but kind of book end of my career coming out of college. I worked first at morgan stanley in there then private equity group and then at battery ventures for five years and And then i went into operating roles for about a decade working big public companies as well as starting my own startup. a which upfront actually funded. So i have done the both sides of the table. And when i sold it i join them As a partner. But i think my early days kind of back up battery morgan stanley. It's funny because it was in a lot of ways. It's a lot of the same stuff that i invest in now. It's just like you know. Concepts like cloud didn't exist and it was. We're talking about moving data for mainframes into servers. But it was you know moving data in storage and security and you know communications infrastructure in the light. We talked a lot about all the different. Osi layers and stuff. That will make me sound. You know fancy from back in the day but the reality there is nothing else to fund back then so but yeah i mean. I've been you sitting on board. Since i was probably far too young to do it. So i kind of learned in the trenches at battery during like late nineties and early two thousand. And then i got to you know. Go get a real job and actually try to build things much much harder
Elizabeth Warren Spars With JPMorgan Chase Head Jamie Dimon on Overdraft Fees
"The nation's top bankers taking some serious heat today on capitol hill see. Jp morgan citi goldman wells. Fargo morgan stanley and bank of america. Kicking off two days of testimony before congress. And if you wanna taste of how things went down. Check out this exchange between senator elizabeth warren and j. p. morgan ceo. Jamie dimon mr diamond. How much did j. p. morgan collect an overdraft fees from their consumers in twenty twenty. Your i think your numbers are totally inaccurate but blessed temporary public. I also want to point out. We did not overdraft. Can you just answer my question. John anymore than over and how much in fact to jfk mortgage collect an overdraft fees from their customers in two thousand twenty the number. I don't remember in front of me. I actually have. Non exceed three billion dollars. We waived the fees for customers upon request if they were under stress because cove it. But you can fix that right now. Mr diamond will you commit right now to refund a half billion dollars you took from consumers during the pandemic. Not pretty
Dominican Catholic Sisters Help Create Climate-Friendly Investment Funds
"Catholic sisters and nuns live quiet lives of prayer but some are wielding influence on wall street. Pat daly is part of a group of dominican catholic sisters who set out to make sure their congregations investment funds reflect their catholic values they to find a fund that supports climate-friendly projects that also help vulnerable communities. We wanted to make sure that we weren't just investing. Let's say a tesla bond but that the investments were really focused on getting green energy into villages and areas on the planet. They didn't even have energy. But the sisters could not find an investment fund that took this kind of holistic approach. So they teamed up with morgan stanley to create two new funds one public and one private that invest in solutions such as clean energy for sub saharan africa and small businesses in india. Sixteen congregations seated the funds with more than forty six million dollars which then attracted tens of millions more from other groups daily says the public fund has shown strong returns outperforming the market so the investments are doing well while also doing
Chinese Lithium Giant Agrees to Three-Year Pact to Supply Tesla
"Everybody rob now. We're here today. We were talking about a potential new battery supplier for tesla. Also we're going to take a look at two b s next delivery timelines some updates. That are happening. There tesla expanding to a couple of new countries and we'll take a look at the updated situation in china as well. We've got no morgan stanley discussing that. Calmer waters for tesla today. Seems like people were really looking for a green day and we got that today. Up three point. Two percent to five hundred eighty nine dollars. Seventy four cents. The nasdaq was really strong today. As well finishing up two point three percent super-quick correction from yesterday and apartments. Were not gonna talk too much about bitcoin today. Only about thirty seconds here. But yesterday i did mistakenly say that tesla started their bitcoin position. Mid march i was thinking of when they sold. A small portion actually started their position either in january or february and announced that on february eighth so just wanted to clarify that and one other thing that i wanted to point out. Just because i've seen a lot of discussion on whether tussles decision making here would influence institutional investors and things like that. It's probably worth remembering that when we talked to alex potter of piper sandler back in february. I asked if he had been getting a lot of calls about tesla investing in bitcoin. In the first place he said quote not a lot to be honest and then added quote. It's not as though we had us have been coming questions on bitcoin after this announcement and so just worth a reminder sometimes when things are happening people point to them as a reason for x. y. or z. Happening things can tend to get and feel very amplified but sometimes that doesn't necessarily match the not trying to say that the discussion about bitcoin and cryptocurrency as it relates to tesla is not important but sometimes in the day to day. Those relatively smaller pieces of the big picture can feel like they're just dominating the discussion and in those cases sometimes it can be helpful. Just have like cleanse and revisit. Some of the things that are relatively more important. So that you don't get or feel bogged down by the smaller details. So those are my thoughts on that and that is the last. We'll talk about bitcoin for the day and for the week pending ilan tweets while recording.
NYDIG Partners With FIS to Offer Bitcoin via Hundreds of Banks
"Bitcoin in your bank account fintech firm f. Fis is partnering with digital asset manager. Dick to bring about an industry first customers at hundreds of us banks will be able to purchase hoddle or sell bitcoin directly within their bank account without having to go through an exchange such as coin base or payment obligation like paypal ni- dig will handle custody insecurity. The program has already enrolled hundreds of smaller institutions as reported by cnbc night big is in discussions with several of the larger banks in the us. About bringing them into the program. Morgan stanley and goldman sachs have already announced that they will offer bitcoin funds to their high net worth clients with j. p. morgan repeatedly mulling a similar product. Perhaps the decision of smaller banks to train front run. Bitcoin adoption for the everyday customer will pressure the larger institutions to follow suit for their retail customers
Dow Climbs More Than 160 Points to Another Record
"Closing highs today with blue chips pacing the events. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 164 points to end the week of 34,200. Blue chip index down in the fourth straight weekly game theme S and P 500 moved up 15 points also to a new high, the NASDAQ composite added. 13 points, Morgan Stanley reported first quarter profits that more than doubled and revenue that jumped 60% to record levels. But huge trading losses related to the hedge fund. Archie goes, weighed on Morgan Stanley's stock. Shed 2.8% U. S. Oil prices fell slightly halting afford a streak of gains make crude slipped 33 cents to settle it. 63 13 a barrel Still, though it logged a weekly rise of 6.4%, that's your money now. In the
Forced Liquidation of Archegos Positions Is Creating Chaos
"The forced liquidation of $20 billion in holdings linked to build banks investment firm. But he brought to market this morning. No stress for single names. Yeah, thanks. Credit Suisse over in Switzerland. Tom in Zurich Down by 13.8% brutal moves their journalistic 15 seconds of the anticipation this morning, a block trade of Viacom. Maybe through Morgan. Stanley. What? The billions number there is, we don't know, and you've got to look for debris from these other prime brokers. Is they unwind this busted trade operative phrase they had that you use Tom. We don't know It's still a lot. We don't know this morning. Yeah, There's no question about that One monitor
World stocks advance on optimism over pandemic recovery
"World stocks have advanced on optimism over a pandemic recovery she is also stronger in Europe all of the gains in Asia driven by hopes for a strong recovery from of the corona virus pandemic Paris London and Tokyo it belongs and U. S. futures also will hire investors appear to be shrugging off a resurgence all cases in many areas and focusing on signs the economy is on the mend and use little portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley investment management says there's a good chance the recovery could be surprisingly strong with little interference from the federal reserve I'm Charles Taylor this month
Analyzing The March Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
"Is the fed's federal open market committee meeting today. Ray now the market is getting nervous because they see the economy heating up and they just don't believe that the fed is going to be able to keep interest rates at zero for as long as the fed. Says they're going to how that's showing up in. The numbers is the ten year treasuries at its highest point in a year. The thirty year treasury is its highest since two thousand nineteen growth. Stocks are down and inflation. Expectations are the highest in twelve years. Then what does the market want to hear out of this fed meeting to me. It seems like they basically want more details. Powell has said over and over that they're staying the course and then he has pointed particularly to their employment goals and just how far they have to go before they reach them but again like i said market seem not to really believe that and i think they want chairman powell to outline exactly the circumstances that would make the fed change its tune and change its policies. Frankly i'm not sure how much detail powell is. Going to be. Willing to indulge right now when we're not actually in a crisis were just seeing stock prices that are finicky insensitive to the that they might be extremely
January China iPhone shipments reportedly grew over 150% versus 2020
"Apple insider is how to look at a note to clients from morgan stanley analyst. Katie huber d. According to that. Iphone shipments in china grew one hundred fifty percent in january of twenty twenty one versus the same month a year. Earlier and boy is that growth going to be hard to beat. The of course in january of twenty twenty people in china weren't buying a lot of iphones what they're literally being locked down to stop the spread of corona. That said credit should also go to iphone twelve. Which is faring. Well with consumers the cording to the report apple is second for smartphone install base and continues to hold on to that position despite wall weighs continued increase in users over twenty twenty apple accounts for twenty point. Three percent of the chinese install base in wall way accounts for thirty two percent. Apple has seen five consecutive months of china. Install base gains up to january. Twenty twenty
Alex Lieberman and Austin Rief Discuss the Origins of Their Company Morning Brew
"Year was quite easy me. Because i didn't have to re- recruit for any jobs. I only take two classes and two other than playing a lot of fi fi. nhl and other video games. I was like. I need to do something to pass the time and keep myself sharp for my job. All right so started helping other students prepare for job interviews and i would always start my mock interviews by asking the question. How do you keep up with the business world and the answer to that question was typically something along the lines of the wall street journal or cnbc etc. And i would dig a little bit deeper. I say why. Do you read these things and the students would say something along the lines of you know. I read it because that's what my parents told me to do. Because it's a prerequisite saying while reading business but it's dense and dry and i don't have enough time in my day to read the journal cover to cover and so at some point i was like this is crazy. These kids are working their asses off to have careers in business yet. They don't have content. That story tells the business world in a fun. And engaging way right and so i started writing a daily newsletter at the time was called market corner. It was a pdf that i'd put together using microsoft word and then exported into a pdf. The logo was bearable in a bullfighting literally. Took it off google. It had the watermark going across and send it out to a serve every day over email. One of the early readers. Was this guy named austin reef and austin revealed me and was like. Hey i have some ideas for how we can make market corner better. Can we chat wow. We met up for a conversation and quickly. I didn't think to myself. Wow this is my co-founder because it wasn't even a business. It was lobby. Yeah i thought to myself is. Everyone is really good at telling me. I'm doing a great job with this thing. Edit is wildly unhelpful. To actually make it better. Austin was the only person that i had spoken to who actually gave constructive feedback on. How market corner could get better. Yeah that's when i knew. It was a complementary brain to mind somebody who thought linearly objectively and so. I brought him on his. Let's call it like a partner at the time and one thing led to another and we ended up launching morning brew together in march of twenty fifteen. I think austin. You're also a student right at of michigan. Both you guys were there right. Yeah so most people initially reading this right university of michigan and you were just alex. You're just writing short newsletter linking bigger articles about the specific topic basically. Yeah it was. It was basically like fifty one hundred fifty word blurbs with link out to the full story and then kind of this other brain food related to business right like investor of the day stock pitch of the day. That's what it wasn't the beginning. And austin you come aboard near like hey you can really do this a lot better. And here's how so. When did you decide. Like how did you get to the point where the two were like. You know what forget about our jobs. Let's jump into this newsletter thing. It wasn't an easy decision. So alex had the job lined up at morgan stanley. I was interning at molson and company. Which is a investment bank in new york city and very quickly. I realized that that wasn't the path for me. And so we wanted to be entrepreneurs we had an idea and so we thought why not give it a chance and we saw growth. We saw this grow from michigan to other big ten schools to ivy league schools to i think the big inflection point is when we soul older people reading. We thought there's something for college students when we realized this could actually be read by anyone. That was a big moment for us when we thought wow. This has potential to be read by tens of thousands but a
Institutions still underweight on AAPL despite strong 2020 growth
"Institutional ownership of apple. Shares is near an all time high according to morgan stanley analyst. Katie huber d but it is nowhere near enough and harassed mation could be helpful at this point to find out what institutional ownership is according to the site investo pedia institutional ownership is the amount of the company's available stock owned by mutual or pension funds insurance companies investment firms private foundations endowments or other large entities that manage funds on behalf of others. The site goes onto. Explain that once those institutions get into a company. They tend to stay there for a while. Not only this pulling shares out of circulation raise the value of shares outstanding. Their decision to get in can lead other investors to do the same despite being near all time highs institutional ship of apple is still under weight according to a note from hubert to clients posted on apple three not. Oh the way she and hers. Apple is likely to see revenue growth of twenty two percent in fiscal year. Twenty twenty one and earnings per share growth of thirty six percent. That's based on a few numbers. That i wish i understood but i sadly do not
Interview With Emma Grede
"Emma thank you so much for coming on the show. Welcome to skimmed from the couch. How i thank you so much for having way and mary excited to talk to you about everything that you've done but first let's jump into skimming your resume so my best job was when i was like twelve and i had to pay around and it gave me my best taste of cash. Which was just wonderful pitches stopped working since then. I went through the hosted in my life working in retail. And i had always weighty being about sasha i loved that world i come from place where you know. It was really devoid of any kind of fashion obama. So i found was really gravitating towards you. Know just the beauty and the supermodels and the brands you know. As i was growing up it was all about the saatchi and chanel and families that working in designer stores in and then my first proper job of coming out of college. I studied business at the london college of fashion and went straight into fashion. Show production avow myself in this really all. Its little niche because in london guests there. Was this amazing. You know london fashion week. Where all of these brilliant designers but nobody really had the money to put on this show. So i ended up in this strange donation of sponsorship and kind of creighton bronze collaborations with the great and the good of the british fashion industry. And that's weighty. Where taught my teeth. And i think that when i think about what it is today and where i've found my success it already started in those early days of being a production company and really learning how to bridge the gap between the creative businesses that fashion all and and more commercial bronze. And so. yeah. That was it for me. That's that was the beginning of it when something that people would be surprised to know about you. Oh i mean. I guess he will probably be surprised to know like how much about makeup i am. I guess maybe that's not something that you always associated with. Somebody who's an entrepreneur like my favorite thing to do is cooking and making things nice at the house. I'm an absolute festive fruit. Like the idea that. I get thanksgiving on top of christmas. Now i'm living in america could not be a need better. I'm not get to do that. Twice is at christmas participate so right now. That's all i think about is that. What is my thanksgiving menu table. Go look greg bat. That is my job. Elevate okay so. I love opening up our questions with entrepreneurs like yourself by talking about your childhood because our childhoods shape all of us and informs ultimately who we are in in how we make decisions. I want you to paint a picture for us about how you grew up in how you think that's shaped you. Yeah it's a great question on a great more. I failed so much of may an how i behave. How i treat people have chosen to comes from my childhood and you know i had a reedy great childhood. I grew up for e kind of a poll basically in east london very deprived area. And i say it so blatantly as that is because you know. It wasn't only devoid of glamour. It was completely devoid of opportunities. Everybody in that community had lived there their entire lives and you seemingly could get out of it. It was a huge jack of opportunity. A huge lacquers education and i saw for myself in my mother who really kind of broke through an managed to create something else for. She was a single mother with four children and my mom found herself. You know working in the stock exchange becoming a trader having a job for twenty plus years at morgan stanley. And that for me was you know it was just like a gateway sunday could see that you know you could create with with a lot of hard work and today and if you really did that you get rid of that to pay off then you could really really really change your outlook very very early on i. I really believe that the harder. I what the more likely would be to get myself out of. Why soares a pretty kind of dire situation but of course when you live and you grow up like that doing something you know. I could understand it if you're a doctor lawyer or going into banking fashion just didn't seem like a way out to me and so there are times in my life where i definitely thought. Oh am i on the wrong path which is ultimately why. I went and studied business at the london college fashion. Because i believe that. If i could set that foundation in business and have this specialism fashion that at least it would ground me that if all that fun bit didn't work out. I'd still have the basics of business. And i could go and run construction company. Also something
Is $50,000 BTC the Beginning of a Bitcoin Supercycle?
"What's going on guys. It is tuesday february sixteenth. And today we are talking about. You know it fifty thousand dollar bitcoin and specifically whether it's shows that we are in a bitcoin super cycle so i the news after a week or so of threatening the rubicon was breached this morning between seven forty five and eight am eastern time. Bitcoin punched up above fifty thousand. Now it immediately met cell wall and had a six hundred dollar candle down in is at the time of recording closer to forty nine thousand but to me that technical response is far less significant than these psychological barrier of a fifty thousand dollar being breached so today's special early breakdown is all about that. I reached out to followers this morning. Asking what topics you all thought were important for a fifty k. Show i also popped into a couple of different clubhouse chats to see what people were focused on and overwhelmingly across both of those mediums. The thing that people wanted to talk about is whether this is another indicator that we're in a bitcoin super cycle. I'm going to discuss this. It's going to be the main focus of the show. What the idea of a super cycle is where it came from what it might mean and some different ways to look at it but first let's blast through a few of the other topics folks wanted to disgust. Let's try to start with something that if not negative is sort of dismissive to be honest. It's kind of hard to find those bitcoin stomping face but here we are peter. Brant tweeted fifty. Thousand is a nice round number. That means absolutely nothing. Technically trying to sound smart just sound smart helps to define dumbness now. Let's contextualized. Peter is speaking to a trading audience and that trader audience are not supposed to in their own estimation get emotionally invested in an asset or let narrative shape. What they do. So let's give peter the benefit of the doubt and assume that that's who he's talking to however if he is truly arguing that technicals are all that matter about an asset. The easy rejoinder is that markets are by their very definition a constant give and take between narratives and technicals and frankly narratives tend to reshape the bounds that frame the upside and downside potential of those technical indicators either way for the sake of completeness i wanted to include something sort of negative but i think we can move on next. Let's discuss michael sailor. Just doing michael sailor things about five minutes before fifty thousand was breached. Sailor dropped a new press release from micro strategy long story. Short micro strategy is offering another six hundred million in debt and all the words of the press. Release our legalese. Except for this. Little line micro strategy intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoins. Pomp summed it up perfectly when he tweeted. Michael sailor is carrying out one of the highest conviction investment thesis we've ever seen in public markets. Incredible to watch okay next. People are wondering how this happened. Or why will. I think the wise a little obvious. We saw an insane amount of positive news last week. Tesla b. and y. Mellon mastercard twitter. Deutsche bank morgan stanley. Every show for the last week has been about some type of crazy positive news. If you've been listening it's hard for that amount of positive news to not have an impact in other words. The specifics of win this fifty thousand dollar price was going to happen. Are for those technicals. That i was mentioning above to figure out but the overall momentum has clearly been in this direction. This actually gets me to another point. I was trying to articulate on twitter. We have this linear time bias. That when things happen quickly we tend to feel like that the thing that was before the you're comfortable with was the correct thing versus the new thing and the new change. That happened really fast. In other words. Bitcoin was between ten thousand. And fifteen thousand for a really long time so fifty thousand seems overvalued but what if instead based on what we now know. Bitcoin was in fact radically undervalued for that. Same ferry long time.
"morgan stanley" Discussed on Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
"Everybody rob power here and today. We're talking about a new note on tesla's stock from morgan stanley. They have increased their price targets significantly. Today after hours. We also have some news on the full. Self-driving beta report on monowai gross margins from china and some news that riven may be raising some more capital taking a look at the stock tussle. Today finished up zero point seven percent to seven hundred and thirty five dollars eleven cents that actually did trail the nasdaq which was up about one percent. But hereafter hours worth. Things have started to get more interesting. After morgan stanley released their updated tussle note. Tesla has jumped by about ten to fifteen dollars. One and a half two percent to read around seven hundred fifty dollars per share otherwise news on tesla was fairly light today. So we're gonna spend most of our time here looking at that note. And as i always say when we look at analyst notes a lot of this is just contextual and it gives us good jumping off points for discussion and things like this also gives us good perspective and insight into the kind of information. That's being circulated around the street. So right off the bat here. This morgan stanley note comes with a great headline. They title the no quote the chosen. One tesla industrializes internet of cars target two eight hundred and ten dollars and quote. That is a huge fifty percent increase over the previous price. Target of five hundred and forty dollars per share. They write quote. We update our forecasts and long-term assumptions. Following better-than-expected cue for deliveries sixty one percent year over year growth and five billion dollar capris raising twenty thirty volume to five point. Zero million units versus three point eight million and taking the price target two hundred ten dollars. Tesla is richly valued for a reason reiterate overweight and quote. Okay so what has changed. Here with morgan stanley's assumptions that has led to this fifty percent price targeted increase while they say they had better than expected volume this year. You four specifically. There's been a significant capillaries. And of course tesla was added to the s. and p. five hundred. So they beat morgan stanley's projection. They have risked and they've been added the s. and p. five hundred which has reduced the float effectively reducing the supply of tesla shares as for the actual changes to their model driving this higher price target. They say that quote the majority of the price target increase comes from the impact of our higher volume assumptions in our model and quote as i said they have increased their twenty thirty delivery forecast from three point. Eight million vehicles to five point two million vehicles and they say that they have now added to factories to their forecast for twenty thirty bringing their total tesla. Plant count to ten. I think that factory count is actually probably pretty close but that would only be you know. Five hundred eighty thousand vehicles per factory by twenty thirty. But it's become very clear. That tesla actually has ambitions of producing two million vehicles or so per factory per year. At least in the case of texas and dig your berlin shanghai. They've said one million plus so even just those factories plus fremont if can hit their production targets in those factories. Gets you to more than five. Point two million that jonas projecting here for twenty thirty as for their earlier year forecasts for twenty twenty one they have increased their projection from seven hundred seventy eight thousand previously now to seven hundred ninety two thousand and as a reminder just as recently as july they had actually been projecting just six hundred and twenty thousand four twenty twenty one so they've actually up that by about thirty percent in just the last six months for twenty twenty two the forecasting one point one five million. I'm not sure what that was previously for. Twenty twenty three. Then they are up from one point. Three five million previously now to one point seven million the fun thing about these increased volume targets from morgan stanley. Is that a few months ago. They did what they called. A great tesla rating. They started including things like mobility services as a recurring revenue from autonomy in their price target. So they're sort of having this ongoing opera moment this year. That as they now add vehicle volume into their forecast they now have to add additional services and revenue margin as well and that is where the game changes in terms of valuation for tusla. And the thing is you. Don't even need a fully autonomous robot taxi type of service to start adding that services revenue in when tesla's starts offering full self driving as a subscription. I think that is going to open a lot. Of analyst is to how tesla's business model is structured and will be increasingly structured going forward leveraging software. It's already easy to say. As i've said in the past that if you want to compare valuations show me another automaker that is selling a ten thousand dollar software option then we can make those comparisons but because that is all sort of right now lumped into the same revenue the same margin line on tussles earnings. People just aren't willing to recognize that yet as a separate line of business when tesla's starts offering full self driving a subscription even if they don't break that out on their earnings that forces a change in how analysts are forecasting and modeling tesla they have to start forecasting recurring high-margin revenue right. Now that's basically all just being pulled forward into that simple ten thousand dollar option which is great but it also makes it easier to ignore the other factor making it easier to ignore right now. Is that a big portion of that is still currently deferred revenue. So it's not actually showing up in earnings. But as tessa delivers more features this year less of that is going to be deferred tussles valuation in and of itself is playing a role here too because it has become so massive analysts have to cover this. They have to cover well. They're getting more and more resources to cover it. They're getting more and more questions as tesla's been added to the s. and p. five hundred those benchmarked funds managers. They need to know what to do with the stock so the coverage is just getting more and more intense and again because the evaluation hide they're going to be a lot of analysts running numbers sort of back testing against that valuation. Saying okay to justify this. This is what needs to happen for the company.