20 Episode results for "Monmouth University"
43 - 'Polling Revisited' with Monmouth University Polling Expert Patrick Murray
"From Kurkcu media coming on the show. If we see you know Joe Biden's ahead by ten points every poll in Michigan then yes. Joe. Biden is ahead and if he loses at the polls were definitely wrong. But if we see Joe Biden ahead by four points on average and Donald trump ends up being able to squeak out a win by ten thousand votes in Michigan then the polls were not necessarily well, it's only the depiction of the polls. The media was saying Joe. Biden definitely going to win this based on a bunch of polls only had him up by three or four. GonNa do about. That was Patrick Murray founder of the most respected polling institute in the country. Monmouth University. As we crawl toward this election, we're all going to be inundated with newscasters quoting poll after poll pre debate post-debate about this issue or that candidate we watch incessantly while these newscasters tell us about our own collective opinions. They give us impression that the poll is a picture of likely results on election. Day. But we all remember two, thousand sixteen with an election night surprise between Clinton and trump. Polls are just a snapshot from yesterday. Voting plans change at the very last minute. So thanks to our producer Aj Moseley. We're revisiting Patrick Murray and his clear view of polling, how to use them and how not to be influenced by them. Where do all these statistics come from? Anyway how were they sourced counted? Kept honest. I can't think of a more appropriate subject to revisit for this episode of politics meet me in the middle. I'm Bill Curtis. Patrick how did you get started in this racket while the story that my grandmother tells us that? I started when I was about four years old a riding a bus into Philadelphia and I sat at the front of the bus and I asked everybody who got on the bus if they like the bus but I learned my first lesson about how you buy us a poll by following up that question before they answered was saying I like the bus. So I am telegraphing to them with the correct answer is so automatically. From from the age of four I was learning how to ask questions and how not to ask questions. But seriously, the most formative experience that I had, which was I was I was doing semester in Washington DC as an undergraduate, and then I saw this ad in the city paper there and walked in and it was a pollster Peter Hart was the Democratic pollster know whether Democrat Republican I had no idea what I did know. was that I was calling and talking to voters in Hawaii and Michigan and Wisconsin, and Arkansas and whole post of interesting places asking them questions and I realize I was pretty good at that. And I went to Rutgers University where they had one of the foremost state level polls at the time the Eagleton poll which started in nineteen seventy one. And I walk over there one day and said I'm interested in practical politics I'm interested in this stuff when I read it in in the academic literature got anything for me to do. And they said yeah, we got this little project. We just need some help with you WanNa do it and that was it from that point on I wasn't going I was not going to be a political science professor going to be a pollster what happened was as I progressed as upholster that experience that I had as an interviewer talking to people and Understanding the interaction that you have when you're trying to get people to tell you their honest opinion informed me much more than any of the academic work in many ways that I did along the way. How could You tell at the time Patrick that you getting an honest opinion as opposed to the opinion they thought they should give you a how do you create a control for people that are not actually giving you honest answers when you realize that you're getting kind of a load from someone because they're telling you what they think you should be hearing rather than what they're thinking that the yeah. That's social desirability bias is important. That's one of the things that I said, you really need to develop an ear to understand that you know a question that you ask may not be as. Innocuous as as you think, are going to give you an example from pull that we just released, which is before Kovac's hit. Were you planning to take a trip for summer vacation seems innocuous, right? Yes or no answer. So we got a number sixty three percent that was in line with numbers that had gotten from past years, and of course, we you know we ask follow up questions. We find that that fewer people are actually going to take that vacation. That was the purpose we ask him when we actually looked at how the responses were given. By Party Democrats were significantly more likely, seventy, six percent or so Democrats said that they were planning a vacation which was more than we'd seen for Democrats in the past. But by the same token, only forty, some percent of Republicans said, they're planning a vacation which would mean before cove it hit two thousand twenty. What's going to be the lowest year for Republicans taking vacation in a year in history? Now that there's no way that's true. What happened was we were asking that question within a series of other questions asking about the impact of Kobe. This is a huge problem that we've been facing and it's been growing over the past decade. Is that almost everything now is viewed through a partisan lens so that when you get a question you I are thinking about, what does this say about my belief system rather than simply you know of Going to do this or not going to do this and so Republicans who want to defend president trump to say, hey, I wasn't planning a vacation because you have to let you know that cove it hasn't changed my plans I add cova. There's not been a big Mbacke where Democrats say I did plan a vacation and covert and and the response of the Republicans and president trump are what caused me not to be able to take this vacation. Now when we actually drilled down, we had a bunch of questions by the time. We got to the follow up questions about what you actually going to do that partisanship disappeared because we're now anchoring it and real behaviors that they said they were going to do tomorrow interesting. One of the things I think distinguishes me from another from other pollsters is that I go out there and I actually talked to people I listen in on conversations. This is like how you understand how people talk about things not by imposing your academic view on how the world should work, but actually how people talk about the vernacular use. And I found that when I go out to places like Iowa New Hampshire in the throes of these presidential primaries, I am able to get people to come out of their shell because they don't know what I think. I'm able to present in a way that whatever you're about to tell me I don't have a judgment on or maybe you even think that I probably will agree with you. I found people. Staying things to me in those situations that they probably would not say if I had walked with a TV camera where they were automatically going to say, well, I have to defend president trump or a half to knock president trump and defend the Democrats whatever it happens to be. So let's dive into a polling situation that we all remember what lessons did we learn from the two thousand Sixteen Clinton trump election. What one of the things that I learned is that. The media doesn't really understand the error associated with polling. And one of the things that I looked at is the total error particularly in the states that were competitive. And so let's say we have fifteen states that are the most competitive states while the error in two thousand, sixteen across the states was no different than the error was in two, thousand twelve and overall the in two thousand, sixteen at the state level was only slightly higher than had been on average. What happened was what the error was off enough in a few states that it changed the electoral vote outcome whereas in two thousand twelve, it did not do that. So the Arizona inherited the polling did not change what our expectations were going into the election that was the key the same. Amount of error was there it was just our expectations were held up even with the Errand Twenty twelve but they were expectations were not met in Twenty Sixteen when you polled for Twenty Sixteen, did you whole based on the electoral college or did you pull based on popular vote? We pulled based on popular vote. If you're going to do electoral college, you do a fifty state poll, which means you have to have large sample size and all fifty states. So you're focused on those fifteen states but what happens is that the so fifteen states that are most competitive are close than the pulling errors. Potential areas are going to be exacerbated, and that was the problem that we found. The public had shifted in terms of how they voted based on their educational level in the past the difference between voters with a college degree and voters without a college degree didn't matter all that much now starting in two, thousand, sixteen, it mattered, and because we didn't have a proper way at our voter lists to wait educational auto pollsters wait. Bhai. Education. But that only account for about one or two points of the total error with a four point ever overall, we found that more of our likely voters who said they were going to vote for Hillary Clinton decided to stay home. then trump voters and that accounted for a point or two these things that you can't predict in a poll in the and that was my big problem with the pulling error in two thousand sixteen was not so much about the polling it was about the number of articles out there that use the word predict. Holes don't predict anything polls. Tell you what things are at the time you take the poll. Now, the fact that Paul's fairly accurate in terms of elections is because very little usually changes between the time of polls taken and the election. If you're talking about a poll taken within a week of the election that pretty much the die is cast and that's why polls are accurate not because they're predicting what will happen is because what was the lay of the land on the day the poll was taken didn't change by the time we got to the election. and. That's why polls aren't, and then in an himself predictive it is they just tell you what is at the time and as long as. Volatile in the last few days, and that certainly was not the case in two thousand sixteen. Then you're not going to get changes and what happened is we had a volatile election. We had enough people moving around and we had a number of polls that had the race in these key states within five points and all that said was Well, this is going to be a close race and it looks like Hillary Clinton ahead but you shouldn't put all your money on that because we know that things are going to be changing between. Now than we took the pole an election day is it possible that in two thousand sixteen people weren't really willing to admit out loud that they were thinking of voting for trump There were some of those people and I, looked at my poll particularly Pennsylvania. What we discovered was in urban areas and suburban areas which made up about two-thirds of Pennsylvania. We had the results dead on when we compare results in in those counties versus what we had an Opole they were dead on where we are off was in the rural part of Pennsylvania. Well we've found is not people were people weren't lying to us about who they were going to vote that the Democrats who are going to vote for trump or the lean democrats who are going to over trump weren't talking about it. So there are less likely answer poll than they had been in the past and what we found from doing our follow work was it wasn't just about answering poll questions. They actually weren't talking to their family members. About how they're going to vote, they didn't want to hear it. We are seeing there's some of that still exists today we have to factor that in but as I said, it's only one percent. Now, if we're talking about a couple of different factors that are one or two percent and they add up to four or five percent, but you don't know which ones are play at which particular time. The key thing that we need to do is to get the media to start saying when when a four or five point poor bunch of four or five point pulse come in is that saying they're still around this looks like it's leaning towards Biden or leading towards trump. There are still enough around this that we can only characterize this as a close election. There is unknowns there are there's error and unknowable 's inherent polling and we need to be more cognizant about the talk about that a little bit more look if we see you know Joe Biden's ahead by ten points in every poll in Michigan then yes, Joe Biden is ahead and if he loses. At the polls were definitely wrong. But if we see Joe Biden ahead by four points on average and Donald trump ends up being able to squeak out a win by ten fifteen, thousand votes in Michigan. Then the polls were not necessarily wrong. It's only the depiction of the polls at the media was saying, Joe Biden's definitely going to win this based on a bunch of polls only had him up by three or four points. We're going to take a quick break and when we return, I'd like to talk to you about that particular subject and how you're dealing with twenty twenty when the people who actually vote are GonNa be a little up in the air. We'll be right back. On medicine, we're still practicing join Dr Steven back and Bill Kurtis for real conversations with the medical professionals who have their finger on the pulse of health care in the modern world available on all your favorite pod casting platforms produced by Kirk Oh media. We're back with Patrick, Murray Monmouth, university polling institute, and Ed Larsen, and Jane Albrecht so Patrick. What happened in two, thousand sixteen, and now as we get to twenty twenty, there are a lot of interesting factors that you've probably not been dealing with before like the pandemic, how it's going to affect people actually leaving their homes and voting where you can have a mail in ballot and we're the mail in ballots might not happen. How Are you controlling for that? We don't know yet because I'll be honest with you. We, we stopped our state level polling as the pandemic hit We are pulling in the Democrat primary We pulled Michigan in early March, and then Arizona and Arizona Michigan our poll was great but Arizona what happened was between the time we polled and the time the election happened, which was only a couple of days between them is that there is a huge shift in people not showing up to vote on person. because of the unrolling pandemic and more people voted. By mail or by drop off then had voted ever before. But the people that we had in our poll many of them who are going to vote person just simply did not vote. And so we dropped our our polling at the state level because of that, and so the larger question is okay. So what are you GONNA do about? This is a part of it was we don't know yet because the states haven't told US exactly how they're going to run the election November because we we already know from our past bowling in March that this is going to be a big issue. What can we learn from the polls? How can we use what you learn? As a way to change our actions so that we can make sure that this is more of a longterm change rather than this week's Fed. While what we do know about how people behave is that they close off their willingness to engage in new discussions when fear is involved. And that has been the case in every past situation as yes this is a problem, but I need to protect myself. While the president's rhetoric plays on that fear it has had actually had the opposite effect. Because he hasn't done what other past politicians dumb. which is acknowledged that there's some sort of ephemeral problem out there and we're going to do something unnamed to address it but the violence that these people are using to express their their point of view will undermine your safety and security in the neighborhoods where you live. What trump is saying is their behavior is bad and everybody's behavior who's supporting them is bad. So they're putting all these white people in the same boat with with the black people who are protesting and other people of color were protesting and so white people are now saying wait he's calling me the enemy. So he's not having the effect of promoting fear among them. He's actually promoting pushing them into solidarity ironically probably one of the things that that can happen here is for trump to continue what he's doing in this rhetoric because it's it's pushing those people who are willing to have said that they're willing to to engage in this conversation to continue to engage in this conversation. Now, the thing that you you don't WanNa do is you want to divert attention as I mentioned don't want to divert attention in Balut. What this is all about. This is about systemic racism which has been a scourge for our country since slavery and so if you want to make sure that you continue to concentrate on that. Can you tell us how your pulse have? The effect of the pandemic on the next elections and have you been able to test that at all? Less about predicting what's going to happen in election versus what we actually saw in terms of moving the needle. trump got an initial bump in his approval rating in March. Because there's this rally effect people want to be able to rally around the leader. Again it goes back to fear when when there's an attack on us, and this pandemic is an attack on our security and our safety, and you want a strong leader to be able to do that was interesting was why he got a bump he got nowhere near the bump that our state governors got that other a foreign leaders got in their own countries because the opinion about trump is baked in. So, what we found is there's a lot of polling out there that said Oh older people who are more susceptible to the virus turning against trump because of his response to covid what I when I looked at the police that well known these chain. These differences existed before Copen, what they're only doing is reinforcing. What people already thought about President trump whether you like or dislike them. It had a reinforcing effect. You know the impression I think a lot of us have is that funding. Can Affect a polls outcome. Does. It matter WHO's paying for the poll I. Guess I mean we don't do paid polls. So it's not so much they. They're polls when they do that. But when you're dealing with a client, it actually comes out and the and the questions that you ask and the questions that you choose not to ask. That is where Tennessee the bias is not in the in the in the results themselves. But in let's avoid this part of the issue seems to be the bigger bias. That's interesting that you said you, you don't charge for your polling so. How does mammoth university get funding for this? So mom at the university is doing this a public service. This is one of the areas we have a number of other research institutes. Something the Urban Coast Institute for example, that does research on the urban environment, the interaction of public policy and science. and. We do that in order to take the expertise that we have inside the university and share it outside the university. So this is one of the things that mom does. Now obviously, it also helps to give monmouth publicity people here, the Monmouth name, and that's always good because every college spending money on marketing and communications. So this is one of the ways that we do some of that as well. Interesting. So being that, we've only got a few minutes left I can't help but ask you if right now you had to lay down a bet based on the polls that you've put out there and the trends you've watched over the last two decades. Can you call our next election? President. Not. Absolutely you're not even gonNA take a stab at and no way, and then in fact. Don't take this personally bill but I'm a I'm a by that. Because I this is this is this is my bugaboo is at holes do not predict don't predict I don't have a crystal I don't know what's GonNa Happen I, get these questions from from reporters all the time. Well, what does what happened yesterday mean for four months down the line I have absolutely no clue because if I did I'd be using that money to go bet on the horses or are you know? Play the lottery not not said do polling. Patrick Mind if we do just rapid fire asking your opinion of the following subjects, I'd like you to rank them one to ten ten being highest whether or not. You're polls have revealed that these issues may or may not affect state or federal elections. I'll try race black lives matter. That's about a eight right now handling of covid nineteen it's either a five or ten depending on how you look. People won't react to it's specifically, but it's the undercurrent of what they think is going on in the World Supreme Court. To accept a main. In the main Senate race, I think the Supreme Court could play out with Susan Collins. Other than that, it's going to be too about women's rights to choose. Again one or two specific Senate races main being one of them other than that not an overarching issue. Not. An. Issue that's going to change minds. So I would say three or four LGBT. Again I I look I take this from from the forty thousand. FOOT VIEW ABOVE For many people, individuals, that is a very important issue terms of effecting this election and changing this election it's a tour three. Okay lies. To because you believe what you're gonNA believe history of womanizing abuse me too. That's going to be a tour three in terms of changing the outcome international relations, China and Mexico two or three barring something happening pro-business at all costs, oil and someone. That could be a six or seven environment at all costs I think before. The events of the past couple of weeks that could have been a six or seven I think it's down to a four or five now economy versus economy because of a pandemic, the economy is going to be a nine or a ten but not necessarily the way that you think. Well, then you gotta give me a little color and then all right. So a lot of people are looking at. The economic issues in terms of. Employment rates or GDP or? Our stock market and those don't matter as much. Again, about is perceptions of how people feel that they are doing relative to everybody else and right now people are feeling that relative to everybody else they're doing. Okay. Even if they're suffering from short-term layoffs and so forth because they believe those layoffs are going to be short term if those layoffs become long-term in November then that's going to shift the equation interesting health care for all. As of right now, it doesn't look like it's going to be as much of an issue as it would have been a month ago. So maybe I'll say seven or eight. Okay. How `BOUT PRESENCE ABILITY TO PRESIDENTIAL Ten. And it's not changing anybody's mind. But that's why people think what they do up down trump right now and as long as Joe Biden doesn't jumps himself to be unpresidential I think. He's going to hold onto that as well. Goodbye that that is going to be extremely important interesting Patrick. This has been a pleasure and enlightening for me. You've been a good sport. Thank you. My pleasure anytime. Take care. This is politics me in the middle comeback and see again. Until next week, don't forget to hit the subscribe button. So you don't have to hunt around to find meet in the middle of next week. And thank you to our producer Aj Moseley music for meet me in the middle is composed and performed by Celestin Eric Dick and the executive producer for this episode, his Stewart how. Room Kirk. Oh media. Media for. Your mind.
Special episode with a special guest
"You are listening to. A. podcast. PODCAST. If you haven't heard about anchor. It is the easiest way to make a podcast. Let me explain first off it's free second authors creation tools that allow you to record, edit your podcast rate from your phone or computer. Second of anchor will distribute your podcast for you. So it can be heard on spotify podcast in many more now out of them do that they no but anchor does you can make money from podcast with no minimum listenership. It's everything you need to make podcast one place. Donald. So go ahead and download the free anchor APP or go to Anchor FM to get started by. Hey log on back to the PODCAST. Brianna. Hey, thanks for having me. Your welcome connor will be joining in just a minute. Awesome. I'm excited for today Dame with me. Set to join. Guys I'm sorry if you. Connor or wait now if you guys journey like screaming or anything that is my parents they when they're not was need I'm homely. Screams me. So. Connor. Hello. Today I've been coping questions to ask you. So. How old are you? I am currently twenty four. Okay when did you become successful? I'm still working on that part but our last single forever's balloon pretty well we release that June of last year. Very good young seen that. Go ahead. Give you channel, right that's where you find it. Yes. We actually just released an acoustic cover of a forever as well. Nice. So. That was amazing. Actually I watched it. Thank you so much. Yep. Have advice for other like musicians. Helped him get started. Yet definitely practice practice practice. Always write new music even if you don't like you know a song or two you wrote you may find a couple of new ideas from it. practice your instrument practice in front of a mirror And just make as many connections you can go out and meet other musicians play with musicians You know just just get out there and stark. Is always my motto Yep. Okay car you've questions, right? Yeah. So How long have you been doing this? So I've been playing guitar since I was six I took a little. Yes, go a little bit of a break and started playing soccer but picked back up in high school but I've only really been singing and performing live for about two years now Nice. So I. Did. Some research and it says you're very good at is it tracked? No I'm terrible at check but I had a good couple of years playing soccer. Nice. Any more. Questions Connor. Did you go to a certain college to play music. Yes I went to Delaware State University to pursue my music degree in wound up finishing it at Monmouth University. All right I think that's all right. Yeah, that's all my questions is well, thank you for joining us today so much. Thank you. Guys so much. Had A great time. Have a good de. News well. We'll be right back after this advertisement. Thank you for listening to the special episode on E. Say podcast. If you haven't already go ahead and follow Brown in Moscow on all her social media platform. She takes part in including apple music.
31 - Polling, Politics, And Predictions with Patrick Murray, founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute
"From Turku media. We've all heard seen in read a thousand times about how this or that. Politician or candidate is polling predate post debate about this issue that issue and we watch incessantly while news announcers give us their organizations reflection of well our collective opinion, or at least today's collective opinion. It seems that our society's opinions change about as often as my socks do. Yes, I mean daily, but. Where do these statistics come from? How are they sourced? Counted kept honest today we're going to deep dive into our own opinions with the help of one of the most respected posters in the country. I can't think of a more appropriate subject for this episode of politics. Meet me in the middle. I'm bill. Curtis our panel, firstly are co hosts Pulitzer Prize winning Historian bestselling author, worldwide lecture, and the widely quoted socially distant and zoomed in authority of everything, historical and constitutional professor at Larson. Hey, you doing it. I had to be back with you and glad to be with Jane and Patrick Murray. What a treat! Also zooming in Jane Albrecht She's an international trade attorney who represented US interests all over the world. She worked with high level government officials in countries, and she's been involved in several US presidential campaigns hey Jane. Nice to remotely see you, too. It's always delightful to be here and honored to be here with Patrick Murray as well. So as you've heard monmouth university is one of the most respected polling institutes in the country. We're fortunate that MONMOUTH. Founding, director Patrick Murray is here with us in the middle today. You'll recognize his voice of course because you've heard him so many times doing exit poll, analysis and commentary on CNN, Msnbc Fox News PBS NPR, and all the major networks. And since two thousand five, he's focused monmouth polling on. You can imagine from presidential state and local elections to business studies nonprofits TV viewer segmentation, even something close to my heart magazine reader surveys. Hopefully podcast next. He's a commentator on politics and public opinions, and that's where we'll be focusing our discussions here on politics meet me in the middle, so Ed is polling a new thing or did our founders take voters temperature back in the formation of America. Good politicians have always had a knack for knowing what the voters think and what they want. Aaron Burr was a master of it, but former polling is really relatively new. At least within the last century. It started with the growth of the modern newspapers. Newspapers it was only in the nineteen thirties that elmo roper and George Gallup tried to develop a scientific method of polling where you try to get a representative sample of people now those representative samples went very good. blacks were almost entirely excluded. You can look back now, and it's almost comical how their collections were and how bias they were now there are literally hundreds of organizations taking thousands of Poles with every election cycle, and with having Patrick Murray on. We've got one of the best. Well, speaking about one of the Best Patrick Kennedy get started in this racket while the story that my grandmother tells is that. I started when I was about four years old, riding a bus into Philadelphia, and I sat at the front of the bus and I asked. Everybody got on the bus. If they like the bus, but I learned my first lesson about how you buy us a poll by following up that question before they answered was saying I like the bus, so I am telegraphing to them with the correct answer is so automated from the age. Age of four I was learning how to ask questions, and how not to ask questions, but seriously on most formative experience that I had which was I was i. was doing a semester in Washington DC as an undergraduate? And then I saw this ad in the city paper there and walked in, and it was a pollster. Peter Hart was the democratic pollster. I didn't know whether Democrat Republican I had no idea what I did know. was that I was calling and talking to voters in Hawaii and Michigan and Wisconsin and Arkansas, and a whole post of interesting places, and asking them questions, and I realized I was pretty good at that. And I went to Rutgers University where they had one of the foremost state level polls at the time, the Eagleton poll, which started in nineteen, seventy one. And I walk over there one day and just said I'm interested in practice. Politics I'm interested in this stuff. When I read it in the academic literature got anything for me to do. And they said Yeah. We got this little project. We just need some help with if you want to do it. And that was it from that point on, and I wasn't going I was not going to be a political science professor. Who's going to be a pollster? What happened was as I progressed as upholster that experience that I had as an interviewer, talking to people understanding the interaction that you have when you're trying to get people to tell you. Their honest opinion informed me much more than any of the academic work in many ways that I did along the way how? How could you tell at the time, Patrick that you getting an honest opinion as opposed to the opinion. They thought they should give you. How do you create control for people that are not actually giving you honest dancers? When you realize that you're getting kind of load from someone because they're telling you what they think, you should be hearing rather than what they're thinking that the yeah, that's social desirability bias is important. That's one of the things that I said. You really need to develop an ear to understand that you know a a question that you ask may not be as. Innocuous as as you think I'll give you an example from poll that we just released which is before covert hit? Were you planning to take a trip for summer? Vacation seems innocuous right, yes, or no answer so we got a number sixty three percent that was in line with numbers that we had gotten from past years, and of course we ask follow up questions. We find that fewer people are actually going to take that vacation. That was the purpose we ask him when we actually looked at how the responses were given. By party. Democrats were significantly more likely, seventy six percent, or so of Democrats said that they were planning a vacation, which was more than we'd seen for Democrats in the past, but by the same token, only forty, some percent of Republicans said they are planning a vacation which would mean before cove hit twenty twenty. What's going to be the lowest year for Republicans taking vacation than a year in history? Now, that's there's no way that that's true. What happened was we were asking that question? Within a series of other questions, asking about the impact of Kobe this is a huge problem that we've been facing, and it's been growing over the past decade. Is that almost everything now is viewed through a partisan lens so that when you get a question you, I are thinking about well. What does this say about my belief system rather than simply you know. I'm not going to do this or not going to do this and so Republicans who want to defend president. Trump wants to say hey. I wasn't planning a vacation. Because you know to let you know that covert hasn't changed my plans. Cove, there's been a big Mbacke. Where Democrats are saying I. Did plan a vacation and covert, and and the response of the Republicans and president trump are what caused me not to be able to take this vacation now. When we actually drilled down, we had a bunch of follow questions. By the time we got to the follow up questions about what you actually are going to do that. Partisanship disappeared because we're now anchoring it real behaviors that they said they were going to do tomorrow. Interesting one of the things I think distinguishes me from another from other pollsters. Is that I go out there and I actually talked to people. I listen in on conversations. This is like how you understand how people talk about things, not by imposing your academic view on how the world should work, but actually how people talk about the vernacular use. And I found that when I go out to places like new, Hampshire in the throes of these presidential primaries I am able to get people to come out of their shell because they don't know what I think I'm able to present in a way that whatever you're about to tell me I. Don't have a judgment on, or maybe you even think that I probably will agree with you. I found people saying. Saying things to me in those situations that they probably would not say if I had walked up with a TV camera where they were automatically going to say well I have to defend president, trump or a half to knock president. Trump defended Democrats whatever it happens to be so let's dive into a polling situation that we all remember what lessons did. We learn from the two thousand sixteen? Clinton trump election. One of the things that I learned is that. The media doesn't really understand the error associated with polling and one of the things that I looked at is the total error particularly in the states that were competitive. And so let's say we have fifteen states that are the most competitive states while the error in two thousand sixteen across those states was no different than the error was in two, thousand, twelve, and overall the error in two thousand sixteen at the state level was only slightly higher than it had been on average. What happened was what the the error was off enough in a few states that it changed the electoral vote outcome, whereas in two thousand twelve. It did not do that, so the Arizona inherited. The polling did not change what our? Were going into the election. That was the cake. The same amount of error was there. It was just our expectations were held up even with the error in two thousand twelve, but they were expectations were not met in two thousand sixteen when you pulled for two thousand sixteen. Did you poll based on the Electoral College, or did you pull based on popular vote, but we pulled based on popular vote. If you're GONNA, do electoral, college you a fifty state poll, which means you have to have a large enough sample size in all fifty states, so you're focused on those fifteen states, but what happens is the so fifteen states that are most competitive. than the pulling errors are going to. Potential going to be exacerbated and that was the problem that we found the public had shifted in terms of how they voted based on their educational level in the past, the difference between voters with a college degree in voters without a college degree didn't matter all that much now. Starting in two thousand sixteen, it mattered, and because we didn't have a proper way in our voter list to wait. Educational Auto pollsters didn't wait education, but that only accounted for about one or two points of the total error. We're talking about a four point ever overall. We found that more of our likely voters who said they were going to vote for? Hillary Clinton decided to stay home. then trump voters and that accounted for a point or two of these are things that you can't predict in a poll and that was my big problem with the polling era. In two thousand sixteen was not so much about the polling. It was about the number of articles out there that use the word predict holes. Don't predict anything polls. Tell you what things are at the time. You take the poll now the fact that polls. Polls are fairly accurate. In terms of elections is because very usually changes between the Time poll was taken and the election. If you're talking about a taken within a week of the election that pretty much, the die is cast, and that's why polls are accurate, not because they're predicting what will happen is because what was the lay of the land? On the day the poll was taken didn't change by the time we got to the election. And that's polls aren't and then in an himself predictive it is they just tell you what is at the time and as long as things aren't volatile in the last few days, and that certainly was not the case twenty sixteen. Then you're not going to get changes. And what happened is we had a volatile election? We had enough people moving around, and we had a number of polls that had the race in these key states within five points, and all that said was. Well this is going to be a close race, and it looks like Hillary Clinton ahead, but you shouldn't put all your money on that because we know that things are going to be changing between now than we took the pole and Election Day. Is it possible that in two thousand sixteen people weren't really willing to admit out loud that they were thinking of voting for trump. There were some of those people I had looked at my poll particularly in Pennsylvania, What we discovered was in urban areas and suburban areas, which made up about two-thirds of Pennsylvania. We had the results dead on when we compared results in those counties versus what we had an appeal, they were dead on where we are off was in the world part of Pennsylvania. What we found is not people. Were people weren't lying to us about how they were going to vote that? The Democrats who are going to vote for trump, the lean democrats who are going to vote for trump weren't talking about it, so there are less likely to answer pulled, and they had been in the past, and what we found from doing our follow up work was it wasn't just about answering poll questions. They actually weren't talking to their family members. About how they're going to vote, they didn't want to hear it. We are seeing their. Some of that still exists today. It's a factor that him, but as I said. It's only one percent now we're talking about a couple of different factors that are one or two percent, and they add up to four five percent, but you don't know which ones are play which particular time. The key thing that we need to do is to get the media to start saying when of a four or five point polar bunch of four or five point pulse come in as saying they're still around this while it's leaning towards Biden or leading towards trump, there still is enough around this that we can only characterize this as close election, there is unknowns there are. There's error and unknowable inherent in polling, and we need to be more cognizant about and talk about that a little bit more. Look if we see you know Joe Biden's ahead by ten in every poll in Michigan then. Yes, Joe Biden is ahead. And if he loses, the polls were definitely. Definitely wrong, but if we see Joe Biden ahead by four points on average and Donald, trump ends up being able to squeak out a win by ten fifteen thousand votes in Michigan than polls were not necessarily wrong. It's only the depiction of the polls. If the media was saying Joe Biden's definitely going to win. This based on a bunch of polls only had him up by three or four points. We're going to take a quick break and when we return I'd like to talk to you about that particular subject and how you're dealing with twenty twenty. When the people who actually vote are GONNA be a little up in the air. We'll be right back. On medicine, we're still practicing. Joined Dr Steven Back and Bill Kurtis, for real conversations with the medical professionals who have their finger on the pulse of healthcare in the modern world available on all your favorite pod casting platforms produced by KIRK CO media. Asia. The we're back with Patrick. Marine Monmouth University polling, institute and Ed Larson Jane Albrecht so Patrick. We were talking about what happened in two, thousand sixteen, and now as we get to twenty twenty, there are a lot of interesting factors that you've probably not been dealing with before like the pandemic how it's going to affect people actually leaving their homes and voting where you can have a mail in ballot, and where the mail in ballots might not happen. How Are you controlling? Controlling for that, we don't know yet because I'll be honest with you. We stopped our state level polling as the pandemic kit we in the Democratic primary We pulled Michigan. In early March, and then Arizona and Arizona Michigan poll was great, but Arizona. What happened was between the time we polled, and the time the election happened, which was only a couple of days between them is that there is a huge shift and people not showing up to vote on person? because of the unrolling pandemic and more people voted in. By mail or by drop off than had voted ever before, but the people that we had in our poll. Many of them who are going to vote in person just simply did not vote. And so we dropped our polling at the state level because of that, and so the the larger question is okay. So what are you? GonNa do about this as part of it was. We don't know yet because the states haven't told US exactly how they're going to run the election November. Because we, we already know from our past bowling in March that this is going to be a big issue. So over the weekend I, think you tweeted. RARELY DOES A poll results? Surprise me because I'm open to whatever the data will reveal changes, usually either incremental or momentary, but there's something fundamentally different in these results in you're reflecting upon results were almost sixty percent of the people that you polled said that police officers, facing a difficult or dangerous situation would be more likely to use excessive force if the culprit is black, compared to the one third who say that police are just as likely to use excessive force against a black or white culprit. You were pretty surprised by that. Yes, I was because it was a significant change. It just four years ago. Only about a third of the public said that. Now close to six and ten say that that's a big chip, and I have been asking that question for a couple of years and There are other incidents, our Gardner and so or Change all that much. It was incremental and his opinion is changing among white. and to me as somebody's been measuring public finisher for twenty five years, there are certain things that stand out to you that you say this is different than I've ever seen in a poll before in terms of his shift, and that was one of them, and that's that's where your understanding of so sociology and psychology comes into play. So what? What are some of the other ways that monmouth university polling is trying to understand the black lives matter movement. It's resilience or lack thereof. We. We're doing that polling. Just as the protests were were starting with the George Floyd murder and what we're finding, was that the initial violence. People were saying Oh, I don't like the vines and we've gotten that all along, and usually what will happen is particularly among white respondents. See the violence and say well that undercuts the the a validity of the cause, and we were finding in our questions was. If he has a separate question, they said well. We don't like the violence, but. We fully understand where that anger is coming from, and that's key difference that when the next song before with the Black Lives Matter Movement have we actually gotten to the point where we're going to take it seriously in live long term, or could it qualify for that momentary content? I put it this way because I as I said I've seen something different in this number something that is something that has a harder change, more and more permanent change, but because I see it as a permanent change now doesn't mean a will remain permanent. Say is I've seen a window open. To a discussion about race and systemic racism that we haven't seen in the past, and so the question is, does that that window stay open and depends on how that conversation develops, but the potential for that staying open. That conversation continuing is at a level that it's never been at before. What can we learn from the polls? Can we use what you learn? As a way to change our actions so that we can make sure that this is more of a longterm change rather than this week's Fed. Well, what we do know about how people behave is that they close off their willingness to engage in new discussions when fear is involved. And that has been the case in every past situation. As yes, this is a problem, but I need to protect myself. WELP the president's rhetoric plays on that fear. It has had actually had the opposite effect. Because he hasn't done what other past politicians have done. which is acknowledged that there's some sort of ephemeral problem out there and we're going to do something a unnamed to address it, but the violence that these people are using to express their their point of view will undermine your safety insecurity in the neighborhoods where you live, which trump is just saying as their behavior is bad in everybody's behavior, who's supporting them is bad, so they're putting all these white people in the same boat with with the black people who are protesting and other people of color were protesting and so white people are now. Now saying wait. He's calling me the the enemy, so he's not having the effect of promoting fear among them. He's actually promoting pushing them into solidarity. Ironically, probably one of things that that can happen here is for trump to continue what he's doing in this rhetoric, because it's it's pushing. People are willing to have said that they're willing to to engage in this conversation to continue to engage in this conversation now. The thing that you don't want to do is you want to divert attention as I mentioned. Don't want to divert attention in Balut. What this is all about, I mean this is about systemic racism, which has been a scourge for our country since slavery, and so if you want to make sure that you continue to concentrate on that going back to what you just talked about Patrick. The fact that what's happened has opened a window to discussion in a way that hadn't been opened before, but people tend to close off such discussions when fears involved. Do you have any sense yet? For how the Moniker defunding police could feed into that? It's not just trump playing on the the fear of violence of the protests. I don't think that will get that far, but because defined the police. If you know what's behind it, it's really. Really about not reform of policing, but the moniker they chose is a radical and seem extreme and I could see people saying hey. I really think we should address this situation of systemic racism and police brutality but I. don't know if I want to trust the Democrats do this because they would defend the police. So how is that going to play into this ability to move forward Jane you read my mind because that that's the key. That's what I'm talking about. In terms of his conversation open. It's not whether the public fully understands what De Fund. The police means is what their perceptions are. People Act based on their perceptions of reality. Not what reality is and that's something that polling Ken measure. We can't measure in-depth analysis of of people thinking about solutions for racism, but we can measure is the things that are going on out there in the world. How are they reacting to them? And is that going to potentially have an impact on their not only their attitudes, but their behaviors is defined the pleases. That's something that can stoke fear. Or has the conversation moved enough? That people feel Oh. I know what that really means, even if they don't know exactly what they're really means their perception. Is that yeah, I know it doesn't mean fully that, so that's do we get a tipping point where that pushes that too far? We don't know and that's. That's why you need polling. Can you tell us how your polls have gauged the effect of the pandemic on the next elections, and have you been able to test that at all? About predicting what's going to happen in that? Versus, what we actually saw in terms of moving the needle. trump got an initial bump in his approval rating in March. Because there's this rally affect, people want to be able to rally around the leader. Again this goes back to. When when there's an attack on us, and this pandemic is an attack on our security and our safety, and you want a strong leader to be able to do that. With interesting was why he got a bump got nowhere near the bump that our state governors got that other foreign leaders got in their own countries, because the opinion about trump is baked in. So what we found is there's a lot of polling out there that said. Oh older people who are more susceptible to the virus turning against trump because of his response to covid what I when I looked at the point, well known th these these differences existed before copen. What they're only doing is reinforcing. What people already thought about President trump whether you like them or dislike them. It had a reinforcing effect. Let's talk about some of the more detail aspects of pandemic and see if you've pulled for it for example, the opening of the economy versus the health risks and potential for a bump and and hospitals having more issues. Have you tested those points? Yeah, we get by about two to one margin. People are more concerned about opening too quickly because of the health impact, and they are concerned about opening too slowly because of the economic impact and that's. Pretty stable throughout this last interesting is that nationwide or is that state by state? That's nationwide. You know the impression. I think a lot of us have is that funding can affect a pulse outcome. Does it matter WHO's paying for the poll. I guess it does I mean we don't do paid poll so? It's not so much that they biased their polls. That but when you're dealing with a client, it actually comes out and the and the questions that you ask the questions that you choose not to ask. That is where I tend to see. The bias is not in the in the results themselves, but in let's avoid. This part of the issue seems to be the bigger bias. That's interesting that you said you. You don't charge for your polling so. How'd does mammoth university get its funding for this? So, mom at the university is doing this as a public service. This is one of the areas. We have a number of other research institutes. Something called the Urban Coast Institute for example that does research on the urban environment, the interaction of public policy and science. And we do that in order to take the expertise that we have inside the university and share it outside the university. So this is one of the things that mom does now. Obviously, it also helps to give monmouth. Publicity and people here the MOM's name and that's always good, because every college spends money on marketing and communication, so this is one of the ways that we do some of that as well. Interesting so being that we've only got a few minutes left I can't help but ask you if right now you had to lay down a bet based on the polls that you've put out there and the trends. You've watched over the last two decades. Can you call our next election? Knows it internally. Absolutely you're not even gonNA. Take steps in no way in fact. Don't take this personally, but I'm I'm offended by that. Because I this is this is my bugaboo. Is that holes do not predict. I don't predict I. Don't have a crystal ball. I don't know what's GonNa Happen I. Get these questions from reporters all the time. While what does what happened yesterday mean for four months down the line. I? have absolutely no clue because if I did I'd be using that money to go. Bet on the horses, or are you know? Played a lottery, not the not said do polling Patrick. Can you explain a little bit of the difference between what Mama's does? And the the pollsters that the presidential campaigns employ my understanding? Is that at this stage? The presidential campaigns will have very capable pollsters, and they will be pulling down to the district, but if you could explain a little the difference between what you do, and what someone even top holster working for a presidential campaign would do these days. Right I've said that our polling. Industry is pretty open terms of sharing information with us one area. That's not as open or the campaign pollsters. They play everything close to the vest because what they're doing at this particular stage of the race. IS THEY'RE TESTING MESSAGES? They say I have this information about. My opponent and I have sixteen different negative pieces of information mellowing opponent, which one is do I think is going to be most effective in with which group of voters. If so because you're only going to target that group of voters with. Online ads or TV ads, or whatever it is these messages, so which message is going to be most affected do that. That's called message testing. So, that's what these pollsters are doing. The other thing that doing is then looking at these different groups and saying okay if we can move this group. Over here and we can move X. percentage of them. How does that attacked our likelihood to win that state? And that's what those we're not doing that. Because that's not, that's not our. That's not our mission. Our mission is to simply say this is what on the minds of the voters. This is what they think is is the lay of the land today. This is what they care about. Their mission is to say. How do I how do I help? Win The next election for my client and I do that by figuring out. What messages are GonNa work best for them. Were they spend? Spend the resources, and also where do they spend the resources getting out the vote in the hopes that this will push them over the top in close elected Patrick do you mind if we do the rapid fire asking your opinion of the following subjects, I'd like you to rank them one to ten ten, being highest whether or not you're polls have revealed that these issues may or may not affect state or federal elections off dry race black lives matter. I think that's about an. Eight right now handling of covid nineteen. It's either a five or ten depending on how you look at. People won't react to. It's specifically, but it's the undercurrent of what they think is going on in the World Supreme Court. To accept a main. In the main Senate race, I think the Supreme Court could play out with Susan Collins. other than that. It's going to be a to how about women's rights to choose. Again one or two specific Senate races main being one of them other than that, not an overarching issue. Not An issue that's going to change minds so I would say three or four. Where do you say it's going to be an issue? In could be an issue in Maine the Supreme Court. Would it help Susan? Collins or hurt her? which way is cut her now because of her? Response in. Dealing with the CAVENAUGH appointment. That's going to hurt her. Because even though she personally is is pro choice the steps that she's taken along the way and our explanation are very weak explanation for what you did in the cavenaugh. Hearing keeps undermining itself so for example capital was one of the dissenting votes on the the LGBT ruling the Supreme Court ripe sell every. That's GonNa all. Just feed into Susan. Collins is not Susan. Collins is anti-gay, but that Susan Collins are anti antiabortion, either one of those, but that Susan Collins really is is not effective and as being played, which leads us to the next one LGBT. Again I I look I take this from the forty thousand. Foot view above. For many people individuals that is very important issue terms of effecting this election and changing this election. It's a tour three. Okay lies. Hm. A, too, because you believe what you're going to believe, history of womanizing abuse me, too. That's going to be a tour. Three in terms of changing the outcome, international relations China and Mexico, two or three, barring something happening pro-business at all costs, oil and someone. That could be a six or seven environment at all costs I think before. The events of the past couple of weeks that could have been a six or seven I. think it's down to a four or five now economy versus economy because of a pandemic the economy is going to be a nine or ten, but not necessarily in the way that you might think. Well, then you gotta give me a little color. Okay, all right, so a lot of people are looking at. The economic issues in terms of overall employment rates or GDP. Or stock market, and those don't matter as much again. About is perceptions of how people feel that they are doing relative to everybody else and right now. People are feeling that relative to everybody else. They're doing okay, even if they're suffering from short-term layoffs, and so forth because they believe those labs are going to be short term if those layoffs become long-term in November, then that's going to shift the equation interesting healthcare for all. As of right now it doesn't look like it's going to be as much of an issue is. It would have been a month ago so maybe I'll say seven or eight. Okay how `bout presence ability to appear presidential? Ten. and. It's not changing anybody's mind, but that's why people think what they do up. Donald trump right now and as long as Joe, Biden doesn't chums off to be unpresidential. I think it's. Going to hold onto that as well. This is good, but that that is going to be extremely important interesting Patrick. This has been a pleasure and enlightening for me. I hope you'll come back and join us a few times before the election because I got through about a third of my questions. You've been a good sport. Thank you. My pleasure anytime. Take Care Jane, Albrecht. Thank you very much. An Ed Larson this is politics. Meet me in the middle. Come back and see us again. If you like what you hear. Please tell your friends and let us know how we're doing by leaving a comment. It really helps if you give us a five star rating, and we really appreciate it. You can also subscribe to the show on Apple PODCASTS, stitcher, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcast. This episode was produced and edited by Mike. Thomas Audio Engineering by Michael Kennedy? And the theme music was composed and performed by Celeste and Eric Dick. Thanks for listening. Room Kirk Oh media. Media for your mind.
The Problem With Toy Guns And Princesses
"Step on them in the hallway. He showed him back in the closet. They keep coming back to take over your living room. What are we talking about today, Corey we're so talking about toys? Learn whereabout them we went to the heart of it all the annual toy fair, New York. That is the bungee gallery. They didn't remained the comes packages slide two different colors of slime. There's little button on her back rather girls can put the slime inside. And it's squishy. You can feel that it's in there, and you can take it out and change the color. That is unsettling. This is the one second soaker. This is the first real innovation in squirt guns in about twenty years. Legos cabinets and NPR education reporter and the mother of two girls, and I'm Corey Turner and NPR education reporter and the father of two boys, and we're coming to you today from toy fair New York, the largest trade show of its kind in the sphere. And this is life kit for parents with sesame workshop, we're here to help you through the tough conversations with kids things like death divorce and the question for today. We're calling it the toy problem led to do when you start asking for stuff that makes you feel kind of uncomfortable as a parent. Just like anything. He's got a row rotating barrel, and it's a full auto so kids just load up the belt drop it in power on. I'm standing right by a really amazing display. It's a giant. Both this partner jet, and I'll just say for the record as a mom that farts are not funny, and I don't wanna hear farts at the table. And I don't want to hear about an Injia that says silent but deadly UT. That's not a funny joke. Okay. Today. The toys that make us cringe. And what to do about them right after this? Support for this NPR podcast and the following message. Come from Lincoln learning, which offers over thirteen thousand online courses to help you achieve your goals. You can take a course like managing stress, and you can learn from experts about the importance of mindfulness identifying your triggers, creating a nightly ritual for sleep avoiding burnout and much more Lincoln learning videos are short so you can fit in a morning lesson in kick off the day with a clear mind and life Kate listeners get a month of learning free. Start your free trial at Lincoln, learning dot com slash NPR. Okay. Toys for some parents a gun in their kids hand is a little concerning other parents might be freaked out by stinky slime whereby the site of their child covered in sequins and sparkles. We're all different. And so our toys feelings, so we're going to help you figure out when you should really be worried and what you can do about it. After the toy fair. We sat down with rose Marie truly. Oh from sesame workshop, I didn't know about the farts inches, and we also reached out to Lisa Danila. She's from Monmouth university gender studies professor who has one of the most fun areas of research. We've ever heard of I actually study superheroes and princesses. Lisa started studying toys and play because she was originally interested in how he choose careers, and she traced the origins of those career choices all the way back to toys and playtime. In fact, Lisa says there appears to be a connection between what our kids play with how they play with it. And the people they grow up to be. Yeah. Here's one example. Lisa says, a recent study of kids use aggressive toys, like toy guns. The researchers found pretty startling pattern. So we're guardless of whether they were a boy or girl if they were playing with aggressive toys when they were little they were more aggressive when they were teenagers. Now, the study is not the last word on the topic. Researchers have been debating this a long time about whether toys or violent video games cause aggressive behavior or whether they are just a sign of the violent impulses that are already in our children. But still this is a big study. And it's food for thought here's a different example of how play can really stick with us into adulthood. So a few years back Lisa and her colleagues surveyed women in college shockingly, we found that thirty three percents of our undergraduate women in our sample said that they identified themselves as princesses now, that's not inherently bad. I mean who doesn't wanna feel a little special and sparkly every once in a while. Corey do do. But these princesses had a few things in common, a kind of Princess mindset. Yeah. Lisa found they were more likely to say that they valued their mates physical, attractiveness and earning power. There were also less likely themselves to wanna get jobs after college. This is in twenty thirteen and here's the clincher when the women were given a series of really tough puzzles to measure their persistence, the prince's actually, quit faster than the women. That said that they were not princesses. Wow. Yeah. Again. Now, Lisa study doesn't exactly prove that little girls who dress up like Snow White will all go up passive and week and tricked by poison apple. But it does suggest that this Princess mindset. It comes packaged with some not very positive beliefs and behaviors. Core. I just wanted to go through my house in Ripa Bala Titas, are you? I wanna go through the house and pick up all the toy guns. It sounds like what we're hearing is. Yes. The toys that our kids play with do have some kind of connections. Even if they're not totally clear with the kinds of people that grow up to be. And so quite what are we supposed to do about that? Well, luckily, we have both Rosemary and Lisa. And so now we're going to run through six clear takeaways from our chat on toys with both of them. Takeaway number one. Where's Murray says he can't just ban every toy that makes you uncomfortable or rip up all the Tutu's? I don't think banning anything is the answer. We can't eighty-sixth those super girly or super violent or super gross toys altogether. And Rosemary says there are a few reasons for this in her case as a mom she was uncomfortable. When her son Lucas wanted one of those foam dark guns, we had the role no guns in our home. She had a ban, but she realized that all of Lucas's friends were playing with them in the hallway of our apartment building. And she was worried that Lucas would be left out. And verse Murray says that group play and the friendships that come with it. They're all really important for kids. And for me to have this stance on no was not very beneficial for my child, and so she decided to allow the gun with conditions. I do remember coming home with that first gun and yes, sitting him down and saying, okay. This is this is how you go in to play with this gun. We're going to be very mindful of where we aim the gun. You know, we don't want to hurt anyone. And I remember him actually saying mommy's going to be okay. And it was okay. You know? And there are other reasons Rosemary says outright ban just won't work for me. I don't really like my seven year old tour make up, but then the other day she came downstairs with vaseline and baby powder to smear it all over her. And it was the same story in my house with toy guns. Children are really creative in innovative. How often do you see child? Just take the finger and getting. Right here. I know they'll they'll they'll make it up. Plus, let's be honest. Anyone who has kids knows that? When you say, no, you can't play with that. It kind of makes want to do it more. And there's always going to be a friend or a grandparent or a neighbor somebody who's willing to see? Yes now. Lisa is also a mom and like rose Marie while she's not wild about twenty guns. She didn't ban them either from her house. Instead, she says she tries to strategically downplay them, I'm never going to say, hey, we've played with those Nerf guns a lot lately, let's get those out, and I will admit that I have on a few occasions, maybe even misplaced the. So if we're not supposed to ban toys, what is the strategy when our kids want something that we don't love. It's our takeaway number two. Rather than rushing him with Allah reactions, stop look and listen because more important than what they're playing with. Lisa says the way that they're playing when they're engaging with these toys, you know, apprentice can can be all by being pretty or it can have a totally sophisticated plot or a foam gun battle could be all about strategy in cooperation, you can be really really aggressive or you can just be shooting targets. And I mean, you can hit your friend over the head with the doll. That's right. That's exactly right. So some of it is just monitoring how they're playing one red flag. Marie says is when there's no variety to a child's play. What I would be more concerned about is the child whose play is primarily comprised of aggressive behavior. And you don't see your child engage in a range of play. We wanna clarify. This may says in some cases, children who have been through trauma or abuse might after. A reenact. Some pretty scary scenarios in their play. And they might even be encouraged to do this as part of their therapy. And in other cases, for example, children on the autism spectrum having a really focused or what's called a restricted interest. Let's really comment. Right. Still in general. Rosemary says play prepares us for life. And we want our kids to dream big. It's okay for me to like pink things and pretty things in frilly things. But it shouldn't define who. I am. And it shouldn't define what I will be in the future. Anyone who is singly defined doesn't make a really interesting person. And that gets us rate to take number three, which is sexism is a very real thing. So parents need to take active steps to counter those messages. Unfortunately, we live in a very gender stereotyped world. Rosemary says books movies ads apps? Adults other kids they're all sending powerful messages to our kids about what toys they should be choosing. Why they enchanted by all of that? And you have to think about what is shaping their interests and their motivations. Researchers have shown by looking at toy catalogs over generations that even as our societies become more equal in some ways toys are actually more gender typed than they've ever been before. Lisa says kids. Learn these stereotypes before they're even out of diapers. They're learning about what it means to be a little boy and a little girl really early on. So. Between eighteen months and two years old is the first time that we're starting to see their awareness. It's so early in fact that sometimes it feels to parents like these differences are totally inborn. But Lisa says, that's not entirely the case. So the research actually is a bit mixed on this. And and it isn't just one or the other it isn't just nature, and it isn't just nurture. And an EMMY case, she says tweet companies they take advantage of the nature and the nurture to sell more stuff in a way that gives our kids fewer options. Yes, elisa's research has gotten at this in a few different ways. She done some experiments and how gender branding influences kids choices. So for example, in one experiment. She painted all the toys white so that the signal colors for gender like blue didn't scream out to the boys and pink didn't scream out to the girls, and without those cues, which he found is that both boys and girls picked more of the stuff that was just fun Plato at sketch. In another study. She gave little kids pink monster trucks, and baby dolls in camouflage onesies, so she used traditional color patterns and flip them on their heads. Yeah. And the title of the study summarizes what she found which is pink gives girls permission. There's a bigger barrier. Two boys playing with girl things and acting like girls than there is for girls to be able to venture into some of these cross gender plays. So in other words, it's almost like little girls have more options. And she says you see the difference in how hard our culture still comes down on the little boys who apprentices and sparkling things. So these trends that we're seeing in terms of deciding certain toys R for girls or for boys really just limits. They're fun. And we don't that's not what we want. We want kids to have as many opportunities as possible. If you need more reasons to expand your kids play options. Lisa also found in her research that lots of toys teach really important and unexpected skills when we see tea sets, for example, that actually has been shown to teach cognitive sequencing of events, which is a fancy way of saying the beginning the middle and the end of a task, and you can see where that would be really important for boys to be able to motor. Absolutely. It is coating in other words, you can help your child boy or girl. Learn the foundations of computer coding by throwing a party. Yeah. Who knew so Lisa's? Guessed that when we're toys shopping, we should strive for the gender-balanced and the gender neutral whenever we can. And she says we should tell her kids something like this. You can play with toys. That's a great choice. Can we get it in the white version? So that all of the kids when they come to our house complete with it. Instead of just the pink version that would be one suggestion. Our words really do matter and little tiny changes like making sure that you aren't only encouraging them to do the thing that matches with their gender group is really important. And this gets us to take away. Number four. We can talk to our kids directly and share values around toys. So you can say this dress up toy that was given to you. Although it's really sparkly. It does really talk to you about being pretty, and I would rather you spend time trying to get smart Marie helped sesame tackle this in an episode where baby bear likes playing with the baby doll. But his friend makes him feel embarrassed. So y- ends up talking all this over with one of the humans on the show. Gordon? I'm a boy in Dow's for girls says who this no reason why something should be just for girls or just for boys is not no look at this shirt. You know, there are some people who think that the color pink is just for girls. No, I I like to wear pink, you know. And there's nothing wrong with that. It does not the what was missing your cheeks. Oh, the great thing about this moment is it's not just about pink. Gordon connected to something even bigger playing. Daddy to your baby doll is great practice for when you get older and become a real daddy bear imagined. That me a we daddy bands. Right. I love them so much slow. Do I so Corey people can't see this. But you got a pink shirt on right now. I do have a pink shirt, and I have had this very conversation with my six year old he'd looked at the shirt, and he said, why are you wearing pink? And I said because I like pink score one for gender equality and Lisa says, it's not just pain kits toys. It's it's everything in my family. We actually have the saying there's no such thing as girl's toys and boys toys, there's just toys and Kim. Kids. Okay. So this gets us to my favorite. Takeaway of all takeaway number five. Join in your child's play. Yes. So Anya, let's say there's a shootout in the OK corral also known as your kitchen, and it's getting really out of hand, you have to intervene and you have to explain why you intervened. Right. So you don't intervene and say, you know, that's wrong. And you know, you're punished go to your room. I mean, that's not going to do anything. You you have to help children take on the perspective of others. So how do you do that? You maybe you take on the character role, and that character role is the character who is going to stop this type of of aggression. I got this Corey you can be the new sheriff in town, the one that gets all the outlaws, but down their goods and say sorry in hug and talk about the problems around the campfire with some beans. I'm gonna take the recording of you doing. In that voice. And I'm gonna make the ringtone on my phone because that was awesome. I also have to admit that my wife. Rachel got me a Han solo belt and holster that I can wear whenever my boys are playing with toy guns in the house and things get a little out of hand. So I can jump in and maybe redirect. We do some target practice tone it down. I like that a lot. Yeah. So actually reminds me another researcher. I talked you had an idea about a dad who played princesses with his daughter, but he would get out the firetruck and get the Prentice out on rescue mission. I love that. I mean, it goes back to what Rosemary told us time and time again, it really is up to parents to help expand their kids sense of what's possible. Parents have to provide these other opportunities because kids play what they see if you could see it you could play it. And then one day, you could be it. And the good news here is we don't have to do this all on our own the culture's changing a little bit too. In one of Lisa's study. She asked preschoolers both boys and girls to describe themselves and also to describe what they knew about princesses. Yeah. And so for princesses, they gave a pretty typical girly girl needs to be rescued. I. Okay. And then the researchers showed the children video clips of more recent Princess characters like the movie brave and frozen where they're taking action in their being powerful. Here's a tiny sample of what they played for the kids. How do you mall of you standing around decided by future? I am not apprised to be one. He he. A meta and shootin far own. Yes. So here's what so interesting. Watching those images change, the children's perceptions apprentices. And also Lisa said, they changed their own self perceptions. Right. So after soon princess's being powerful, both the girls and the boys described themselves as more multidimensional. So they will say that. I am strong. I am powerful. I am a leader. But they'll also say I am carrying and I take care of of people, and I share let's take this infirm, Corey, you know, when kids wherever they are in the gender spectrum when they get a chance to spend time with characters who more complex through play or through pop culture. It actually changes the way they see themselves. I mean, my love that. And let's be honest like it's not just true for kids. It's true for all of us. We really have to look for more complex characters in books and movies and everything that we do. Now, finally on you. Yes, we're coming to my favorite takeaway trailing on the end here. A piece toilet paper on your shoes. Kind of stuck there? Kind of on the bud. End of this audio guide little awkwardly kinda like booger on your fingers. Can't. Takeaway number six six it's about gross toys, those sparring Inge's poop emojis, the Booker board games. You know, we're talking about we know you know, what we're talking about. Because we talked to Steve preserve he's president. And CEO of the twin sociation he helps run the toy fair we were at and he told us this, you know, lashed year for some reason poop was in. So there was all these Pook theme toys, and like all good journalists on we had to fact check this claim to potty. Hot humid. I usually do. Joe? He's a really good armpit farther. Learned I'm lake farts, which are two pants on Whoopie cushions. I think the news I did to my mom. So we're Moore says there's one simple reason for this boom economy, and PU play children are fascinated with how the body works and while the far fund can get tiresome for us grow. You never get sick of it, quite I don't. But I know that you do Marie says we can turn that negative into a positive these kinds of toys give you an opportunity not only to talk about how the body works. Why do we burp? Why do we far why do we vomit? Oh. In other words because science exactly and we can't say it enough kids. Learn through play. So don't poop who the power of pooh-pooh to teach them something about their bodies. Yes. But rose may also says which is more to my liking that we can also use this potty humor to teach manners even on Sesame Street. When cookie monster burps after eats, a cookie, he says, excuse me. So it's an opportunity for parents to talk. Talk about these social norms and to have your child have manners. Maybe when they're playing with these toys, remind them lying with who is fun playing with poo fun. But remember wash your hands after you, you wiping. And if you burp zeke's use me on that note, I think it's time to wrap things. I think it's just about time did. Yeah. Here's a quick. Refresher of everything we talked about about toys number one banning it isn't the answer. I don't think banning anything is the answer never to take a deep breath press. Pause and your big feelings about a toy and watched how your kids play with it took away number three sexism, Israel, and we can fight it in the playroom with different toy choices. You already have four of these dolls is their chance that we might want to get one more doll. But also one more truck take number four talk to your kids directly about your values in my family. We actually have the saying there's no such thing as girl's toys and boys toys, there's just toys and kids took away number five juuling in your child's play. If you think your child's to recive with a gun play or a little too beauty obsessed with the Princess play. Don't you shut it down relics leasing get in their partner? If you could see it you could play it. And then one day you could be. It. And finally number six the stuff that puts the toy in toilet staffy wishes flesh. Consider these things a golden opportunity to dig into science of our bodies and to talk about matters lack with that Corey. And that's all for this episode of life kit for parrots. Thank you so much for listening special. Thanks to Lisa Danila rose. Marie truly. Oh. And all our friends at sesame workshop, and the other awesome, toy researchers. We talked to for this episode, Rebecca Haynes, pay Ornstein, Jeffrey, tropic Smith and Julia Delap. For more NPR life kit. Check out our next episode. We'll talk about how to tell your kids about a divorce. If you like what you hear make sure to check out our other life kit guides NPR dot org slash life kit. And while you're there subscribe to our newsletter. So you don't miss anything. We've got more guides coming every month on all sorts of topics and as a 'let's here's a completely random tip. This time from NPR listener, Marie Richter of Menominee, falls, Wisconsin. If you have an aching muscle or an injury. It's nice to have some type of a heat pack, and I find I can make my own at home. I take any type of white rice and clean dry tube sock. Put the rice in to the tube sock. Then you put the rice bag into the microwave and microwave it usually initially about a minute. And then I'm ready to go. If you've got a good tip or parenting challenge you wanted to explore please. Let us. No, Email us at life kit at NPR dot org. Life kid for parents is edited by Steve Drummond and produced by Larmag. Jackie Sylvie, Douglas, Lisa's car, say and Chloe whiner with special hop from. Jessica, your Muskie, Meghan Kane is the managing do, sir. And our digital editor is Carol Richie music by Nick to pray and Brian Gerhard. Our project manager is Matilda appeared Neil Caruth. There's our general manager podcasts and the senior vice president of program is on your aggrement on Corey Turner. And I'm on the cabinets. Thanks for listening. Again. God what is happening here? I degraded on your I can't I can't give it up and I've given away all of my Sanders. Okay. The future of edible insects life found in duct poop, boy, boredom is anything but boring and how our brains handled something so cute. We can't even I'm Mindy Thomas NPR's well in the world podcast. And if you have a curious kid in your life, check it out laugh and learn together find wow in the world on apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Support for NPR and the following message. Come from Lincoln learning, which offers more than thirteen thousand online courses to help you achieve your goals. It's short video tutorials, cover business, tech and creative skills. Employers. Look for at every level all taught by experts and new courses are added every week. Plus Lincoln learning is personalized recommending courses based on your interests and life kit listeners get a month of learning free. Start your free trial at Lincoln, learning dot com slash NPR.
Poll's open-ended question reveals Democrats' true feelings on impeachment
"Welcome to the lead from meet. The press. I'm carried in some questions are more useful than others useful. Questions are which way to the bus stop. Would you like fries with that. Will you marry me. An unuseful question is are you going the era that because the answer is always yeah. I guess you're going to eat it because you're asking me about my food and pointing to it right now. Anyway i wanna talk about a new poll out today. That asks some more maybe useful versions of a question that you probably find very familiar and the questions are about the impeachment meant the president of the united states different pollsters have asked about this in different ways but many of those ways to be honest. Don't take into account all of the complexities complexities of this issue so if you were to ask a poll question for example and i don't recommend this that was simply should president trump be impeached and that's the whole question you might get data. That isn't really all that useful and the reason why is that not everybody interprets that question the same way. Some people are going to hear that and think should the president be removed from office. Tomorrow and other people are going to hear it and think well should there be an inquiry and then maybe a vote in the house and some might hear lala blah blah blah donald trump good or bad because let's be honest some people here the president's name and they have a pretty immediate reaction and and of course there's also the political reality here which is at the republican party controls the senate which means that even if the house wants to pass articles of impeachment the senate would have to ratify defy them to actually remove the president from office and republicans have two words for you about that which are mitch mcconnell. All of this is why i i like what monmouth university did in their latest poll which looks at this question from a few different angles. The first question they asked was this one. Do you think president trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency on that question. Only thirty five percent of americans said yes then they asked do. Do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea for the judiciary committee to conduct an impeachment inquiry into president trump that may or may not lead to impeachment forty-one forty-one percent said yes to that so it's a little bit of an uptick and by the way that includes more than seven in ten democrats then they asked an an open ended question about why people think there should or should not be an inquiry hold that thought more on that in a second and then they walked people through the impeachment process itself noting that both the house and senate have to vote and they asked people how likely they thought it was that the president could be successfully removed from office and just twenty percents said yes and then finally stick with me here. They asked this so if it's unlikely for the senate to vote to remove trump is it a good idea or a bad idea for the house to conduct impeachment proceedings and the share saying it's a good idea anyway with all those conditions being met is thirty seven percent so the upshot of all of this is democrats aren't fooling themselves about the likelihood of trump trump actually being thrown out of office but they want to go through the process anyway and why remember that open ended question that that i mentioned earlier the people who said they wanted to see an impeachment inquiry gave a lot of different reasons but the plurality of them were related to things like the rule of law or transparency or checks and balances for these people for these mostly democrats. This process is about the process not not about the results so all of those useful questions got at least for me. Some useful answers about who wants wants an actual impeachment effort and why particularly in light of the fact that is most likely a non-starter so yeah. That's what i got. Only one question left to ask you. You're gonna eat that. That's a live for us. If you'd like to hear more audio briefing you can always download us as a free podcast <music>.
Female 2020 candidates catch fire in new poll as abortion debate heats up
"Welcome to the live from meet the press. I'm Carrie Dan guys. We've got another horse race poll. But I'm going to talk about something else. That's part of it. I know I know it's a new national poll from Monmouth university, and I would tell you about the recent movement in the leaderboard that was outside the margin of error, which means. No, it's all within the margin of error. So I will just tell you that. Yes. Joe Biden is still leading the pack by double digits. But here's what's most interesting in the poll to me that Mon this own folks are also pointing out today, there's something that seems to be happening with the female candidates in the democratic race to review. We here on the lid have talked quite a bit about the curious fact that while pulling particularly around the twentieth eighteen midterms show that a majority of all voters, and particularly Democrats thought the country would be better off with more women in elected office. The female candidates in the twenty twenty race really haven't caught fire yet. I'm talking primarily about the top women here. Comma, harris. Elizabeth Warren, both are well known well funded and well-staffed Harrison Warren, come in third, and fourth place in this new poll respectively. But that's not necessarily, what's most interesting here. What's more noteworthy to me is that those two female candidates, and let's toss Emeco bitch are in there, too. Even though she's a bit less. Well known they've all seen their favorability ratings with Democrats. Take up back in April Elizabeth Warren's net. Favorability in the same poll was positive thirty two points, that's up to a positive forty six Harris's net approval is up nine points club jars is up eight. Now, these are not huge earth shattering changes, but they're notable and they come by the way, as the top male candidates. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buddha, JR. Aren't seeing the same boost in favorability. So what's going on here? Why do these female candidates seemed? To be getting a bit of an over their male counterparts in this new poll Monmouth pollster, whose name is Patrick Murray suggests that this could be linked to the fact that potential restrictions on abortion rights have been so much in the news while this was in the field and female democratic candidates have been so outspoken more so than their male counterparts in talking about that issue. That's one hypothesis. We can't know just from this poll, but it's fair to say that it's an issue that's been on voters minds. Okay. There is also other data out there that's kind of inconvenient for this hypothesis. But indicates the majority of democratic voters overall say the gender of the nominee in twenty twenty really isn't super important to them on its own a pew survey also out today found that about two thirds of Democrats said it, wouldn't make a difference to them. Either way, whether the nominee was a woman or not. But thirty percents also say they would be more enthusiastic about a female nominee, and that's a much higher percentage than those who say the same thing about. Candidate who's a racial or ethnic minority, or one who is LGBT. And by the way, there's one group that released stands out here as being unenterprising among Democrats, about one in five of them say they would be actually less enthusiastic about one particular kind of candidate, and that is white men. I think there's a Shania Twain song that can take out here. Let's give it a go man. A fee lag womon. That's a liver us if you'd like to hear more of this free air briefing. You can't add meet the press the lead to your flash briefings on Amazon Alexa, devices, or just download us as a free podcast.
Biden favorability takes a hit as Reade allegations go public
"Welcome to the live from meet the press. I'm carried in a new worthy thing. Happened in the twenty twenty presidential contest at the end of last week. Joe Biden responded publicly for the first time to an accusation by a former staffer. Tara Reid who says that Biden sexually assaulted her in the early nineteen ninety s in an interview on morning. Joe Biden unequivocally denied that accusation. Saying point blank. It never happened for more on what we know. And don't know about this entire story. I highly recommend my colleague. Mark Murray's LID podcast from Friday laying out all the facts. It is fair to say though that without a bunch of conclusive evidence much of the fallout. At least based on the facts. We have now is likely to come down to whom the public beliefs now for the first time. We have some reputable national data about that very question. Monmouth university is out with a poll. Today that found that eighty six percent of voters have heard about this allegation against Joe Biden and as for who they believe. Well it's a split verdict in the poll. Overall thirty seven percent. Say they think this accusation is probably true? Thirty two percent say it's probably not true and the remainder say they just don't know now. There is a partisan splits about half of Republicans. Say they think the charge is true? Another twenty ish percent of Republicans. Say they think it's not. It's almost a mere image for Democrats though about half of them. Say they think this accusation against Biden is not true. About twenty ish percent. Say it probably is. So that's the backdrop. Most Americans have heard about this allegation against Biden and there are about evenly split overall between saying it's probably true. Probably not true and just done. What's does all this mean for? Joe Biden's chances of beating Donald Trump in November. All of this of course is not happening. In a vacuum the president is trying to manage the fallout from a historic pandemic in president. Trump has also been accused. It must be noted by multiple women not just one of himself committing sexual assault according to this new monmouth poll by has taken a little bit of a hit in his favor ability since the accusation. Became well publicized. His support is pretty soft for presumptive nominee. And he's still got a major issue with young voters. Who by the way are more likely to believe the accusation than their older counterparts? Our Butts in the same poll. Trump's favorability is also a little bit down and Biden's lead over him in. This particular poll has grown a bit since last month. This monmouth poll finds. He now has a nine point lead over trump in a head to head contest and that's compared to a four point lead last month. Now plenty more open with this story. Another accusation could come out. New Facts could come out. We just don't know where this story will end and obviously a lot more those are going to happen with krona virus as voters continue to assess the White House's handling of that crisis butts where we stand now. This accusation of assault is one. That is obviously not good news for Biden. But it's also not a revelation that has fundamentally altered a twenty twenty race. That still seems very much a referendum on the man in the White House right now. That's it for us if you'd like to hear more of this free audio breathing you can always download us on your favorite podcast APP you.
Breaking down polls: Who's REALLY up or down?
"Live from meet the press. I'm Kerry Dan. How's everyone doing today. I hope that today you're running on a a better night's sleep than the members of the United States Senate and maybe some more peace of mind than some very nervous. Twenty twenty candidates and I hope less overall confusion infusion than the octogenarian law makers who had no idea what representative Hakeem Jeffries was talking about last night when he evoked these immortal words of the notorious. Let's be ID on the Senate floor. And if you don't know now you know but speaking of what we don't know and speaking about nervous twenty twenty candidates it is certainly hard to know exactly what the latest crop of twenty twenty national polls really mean. CNN came out with their latest. As Paul this morning and it shows Bernie Sanders at the top of the pack but again within the margin of error leading Joe Biden by about three points and then everyone else is at at least another. Ten percentage points below those two that got people's attention because sanders was up. Seven percentage points from the last CNN poll and and this survey also gave Pro Sanders folks a counter argument to sort of the CW floating around that sanders might be a controversial nominee even among Democrats because he had the highest overall sheriff folks saying they would be comfortable with him. At the top of the ticket then monmouth university was also out with a new survey of Democrats that found Biden at the top by seven percentage points and maybe even taking his lead over sanders up a smidge since last month and all of that is not to mention some online polls and some additional surveys. That actually don't NBC's Methodological Standards Butts Show everything from a super close race to Biden up by double digits so what to think seemingly every candidate can find some poll number out there that makes them look like the candidate poised to be the winner in twenty twenty so yeah let's start with the basics and repeat after me polls are a snapshot Snapshot in time not predictive and you gotta keep the margin of error in mind for that. CNN poll the margin of error for the Democratic and democratic leaning independence pendants who were registered voters who are asked about their preference in the primary was plus or minus five point. Three percentage points which means the pollsters acknowledge knowledge the true value of their top line number. Let's say the twenty-seven percent who backed Bernie Sanders in that poll could be about five points higher or it could be five points lower in the MONMOUTH poll. The margin of error for the same group of voters was similar. Plus or minus five point. One percentage points so in neither pull can you confidently say that one candidate is definitely certainly bet the farm on it totally certain that they're leading another thing thing to keep in mind. Every pollster has their own secret sauce for what they think. The electorate actually looks like and they wait their samples to match. So one pollster for example may think the democratic electorate includes more or fewer registered voters who are actually independence but are probably gonNA lean aimed towards Democratic candidate. That might seem like a small difference. But when you're talking about the sample that's only about. We say five hundred people who are supposed to represent the entire country. Sorry the way that sample is put together is a really big deal and of course polls don't predict the future typically the working assumption in American politics has typically been that the candidate who's viewed as the victor in the Iowa caucuses is positioned for a big momentum. Bump which in theory could scramble all of these numbers once voter start voting on February third. But there are certainly folks out there now. Who would say? It's unwise to assume from that. Any past assumptions about anything should be still in place at least these days. So yeah there's your twenty twenty polling refresher for the day hopefully. There's a little bit of helpful context somewhere in there and if you don't know now you know. I mean within the margin of error and everything. That's good for us if you'd like to hear more this free audio briefing. You can always download us your favorite podcast APP. Hey It's Chris as you know sometimes it's good to just take a step back from the day to day onslaught of news and take our broader. Look at the issues. That's what I'm doing each week on my podcast. Why is this happening. Were exploring topics ranging from school segregation. Gatien to climate change. Well the way that I think of it is. Climate Change will be to the twentieth century. What modernity west of the nineteenth century it'll be the central subject of questions about economic justice. Justice everything you care about in the world will be affected by climate and digging deep with guests uniquely qualified to analyze issues from mass incarceration to race relations. As you know for the first time in in our history at the national level whites are on the verge of losing their majority status in twenty years. And I think it's no coincidence that our politics are getting more tribal. Join me for. Why is this happening. New episodes every Tuesday. Wherever you get your podcasts.
The O'Reilly Update, May 12, 2020
"Bill O'Reilly here Tuesday May Twelfth. Two Thousand Twenty. You are listening to the O'Reilly update. Here's what's happening. Across our nation polls show Democrats Republicans split on the country's virus response. President trump tells America. The Nation has prevailed on testing inmates in some Los Angeles prisons deliberately trying to contract the disease some British pubs face. Extinction following the contagion. Also ahead the future and your money but I knew polls show Americans mostly split down party lines. On the country's response to the pandemic Monmouth University Finding Democrats have been more personally affected while Republicans drastically favorite reopening the economy now forty seven percent of left leaning voters. Say they know someone affected with Kovin compared to thirty seven percent of conservatives. That's because more liberals live in big cities like New York when asked how fearful they are about the illness. Sixty percent of Democrats said very twenty-five percent of Republicans and thirty eight percent of independence. Feel the same way conservative. Voters are also more optimistic about the economic recovery eighty percent of GOP. Supporters are hopeful. America can reopen the country soon compared with just fifty three percent of liberals some of them don't want a quick economic rebound for political reasons. President trump telling Americans. A country has prevailed on testing and effectiveness. Mr Trump saying quote numbers are looking much. Better going down almost everywhere. Despite that the White House says all staffers have to wear face masks inside the West Wing. Some jail inmates in Los Angeles deliberately trying to contract cove it L. A. Sheriff's confirming. The prisoners are intentionally exposing themselves to cove it as a way to get out of jail or be admitted to a hospital. British pub struggling stay in business during the country's lockdown leaders from the UK's beer and pub association say fifty percent of the nation's saloons will not survive. Boris Johnson the Prime Minister confirming this week. The bars will not be serving any L. or efficient ships or be or anything until August in a moment. The future how you can make some money right back. Our world is obviously changed. When you venture outside face masks are everywhere and the kind of mask that you use matters. We all WANNA mass gives great protection like medical professionals get with their n nine five masks the boomer naturals. Thirty Day facemask provides ninety two point. Two percent antibacterial protection. It's comfortable easy to breathe in and to speak with and the mass come in both adult and children's sizes not only is the boomer naturals mask highly rated but it is affordable less than thirty cents a day these boomer natural mass can be used up to thirty days by hand washing them with soap and water. I recommend you order yours right now at boomer naturals dot com use Code Bill Twenty checkout save twenty percent every time he shop plus free shipping on orders over fifty dollars. That's Code Bill. Twenty at boomer naturals DOT COM TIMEOUT. Riley update message of the day went up to forty million. Americans have job insecurity. You have to get smart economically. Big changes are coming. I the stats the unemployment rate in the USA. Right now about fifteen percent the highest level since the Great Depression in one thousand nine hundred thirty three during the depression the unemployment rate was twenty five percent. We may get close to that. More THAN THIRTY MILLION AMERICAN JOBS VANISHED SINCE MARCH. The hardest hit sectors oil the price of oil down to twenty four dollars a barrel gas prices per gallon expected to hit a dollar certain parts of the USA. I never thought I'd see that shares at Exxon down thirty eight percent in the past two months financial services banks hurt by falling interest rates with loan payments a major source of income for congressional stimulus packages aim to stabilize banking which they will manufacturing goods from Caterpillar deere car manufacturers down at least eleven percent since January auto production mostly suspended during the national shutdown. If you have some cash this is a great time to buy a vehicle. Airlines devastated traveled down more than ninety percent. Most planes plying at twenty percent capacity. A third of millennials have now lost their jobs harvested states the same as those the highest number of infections New York New Jersey Massachusetts Illinois California. The GIG industry hit hard that includes contractors photographers. Caterers musicians consultants. Sixty million Americans work in the GIG market. That's largely cash for services. So what should you do if your job is at risk? Well you have to anticipate the worst and then you have to get temporary employment if you sitting on your butt in my town on Long Island. Toronto need people delivering food. Pools need people to clean and maintain gardeners need people to do their jobs. If you are willing to work hard you will get paid. And it's temporary so in the long run. How should you look at your employment? Well what do you like to do? That's the key you wanNA make a living. You WanNa make money in America by doing something you like. And you can get trained on the Internet while you're sitting at home. There are literally thousands of college courses Highschool Courses Degrees. You can get on the net. These schools are desperate. They want your money. So you can work on stuff during the lockdown. Check IT OUT. And then there's the personal attitude. Adjustment Life is hard unexpected. Things always happen. That's the pandemic. What a message this is and you can't do anything about it but you can always money in the USA again if you're willing to work hard. I'm Bill O'Reilly and I approve that message by actually writing it for more news analysis. Please visit Bill O'Reilly Dot Com for honest and incisive pandemic coverage in a moment. Something you might not know we are all using lots of hand sanitizer these days but it can be hard to find if you need a reliable hand sanitizer from a brand you can trust. I'd like to tell you about real time. Hand sanitizer time offers the best sanitizer I've ever used. It contained seventy percent. Alcohol doesn't dry out my hands. Real-time hand sanitizer. Skin conditioner is infused with nature's ingredients including Aloe Vera and vitamin E. conditioning. Your skin as it cleans. Real-time hand sanitizer does not contain parabens. Artificial dyes are fragrances. Real-time sanitizer formulated and packaged right here in the USA. By the makers of real time pain relief. Best of all it's in stock right now. So for a limited time you can save five bucks on the twelve ounce bottle of real time hand sanitizer when you use the coupon code bill again. That's coupon code. Bill please go to our T. PR RTP ARE DOT COM. Now the O'Reilly update. Brings you something you might not know? The global pandemic has introduced a new terminology into people's lives flattening the curve social distancing and heard immune not medical experts say the virus will not be completely defeated until the population reaches quote. Herd Immunity. So what's that basically enough people contract and defeat the disease so the bug runs out of new victims. Scientists say about seventy five percent of populations must come into contact to vanish the virus. The USA has already achieved herd immunity for a number of diseases including measles mumps polio and chicken pox. There are just two ways to reach the seventy five percent threshold. The disease runs wild through the population killing the vulnerable while the healthy survive or the more preferred option. That's a nation. Methods like social. Distancing can slow the spread but once the folks leave the. House infections go up Sweden pursued herd immunity from the very beginning of the pandemic leaving. Its economy open while isolating the old and the sick. The results in have been mixed. The country has twenty six thousand cases of the virus and thirty three hundred deaths. Finland six thousand cases in two hundred and fifty fatalities similar statistics for Norway Denmark. All those countries locked down unlike their Swedish neighbor recent testing shows twenty five percent of the Swedish population has now been exposed to the virus. And here's something else you might not know. The United Kingdom also tried to pursue herd immunity back in March but bailed after infections in hospitalizations. Went off the rails. Great Britain has more than two hundred and fifty thousand cases and thirty two thousand fatalities on March twelfth. The Same Day France close schools businesses. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said quote. I must level with you level with the British public. Many more families are GONNA lose ones before their time ultimately the UK abandoned. Its plan to quote keep calm and covert op back after this two guys kyle and Josh. We're both losing their hair. Which was no surprise to either. Since they knew male pattern baldness ran in their families. The way they dealt with their hair loss however couldn't have been more different. Kyle put it off losing more and more hair. Josh went right to keeps DOT COM to learn how to keep his hair keeps offers generic versions of the only two. Fda approved hair loss products out there. The genetic version Save Josh. A lot of money and the consultation was simple. He answered a few questions online and snap a few pictures of his hair. A doctor then evaluated everything and recommended the right. Fda approved hair loss treatment for Josh. It was shipped discreetly to his door keeps. Lets you save your hair without ever leaving your home. Please go to keeps K. Eps DOT COM slash bill to get your first order of keeps hair loss treatment. Fifty percent off half off that's keeps dot com slash bill keeps dot com slash bill. Thank you for listening to the O'Reilly update. I am Bill O'Reilly. No spin just facts and always looking out for you.
50 - "Polling It Together" with Founding Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute Patrick Murray
"From cargo media. If you're anything like me you spent most of your time and twenty twenty either dealing with the pandemic and all the nations or devouring the news mostly about an election with writers broadcasters quoting poll after poll under the guise of predicting how candidates will fare voters voices. Reality is that most of these new sources are misusing these polls as a form of news entertainment or maybe a way to stretch and failed or twenty four by seven program. Which of course is designed to keep our attention for as long as possible. Now once again we're condemning pollsters for getting it wrong way road so we brought back one of the most respected pollsters in the country. Patrick murray founding director of monmouth university polling institute to give us a perspective will defend pollsters. Ooh perhaps will you apologize. Well maybe we'll see but let me ask you listeners. In this case can you honestly state. How many of your friends or co-workers voted trump. And that's just a few dozen. Can you imagine trying to accurately called a millions strangers or one hundred million strangers not so easy especially when it comes to donald trump. Sure news sources and polling institutes need to our trust but in reality. We're all gonna forget again by the next election. We'll get sucked into the next news outlets misuse poll. So they can look with our you know. The definition of lunacy is doing the same thing again and again expecting a different results. This is politics. Meet me in the middle. I'm bill curtis where here once again with our favorite coast first pulitzer prize winning historian arthur worldwide lecture and beloved pepperdine professor at larssen. How you doing ed. O bill and jane albrecht an international trade attorney who represented us interest to high level government officials in washington europe russia and then some and jane has also been involved several. Us presidential campaigns. Jane thanks joining us again. Always a pleasure. Bill and now for a guest on the hot seat. Monmouth university is one of the most respected polling institutes in the country and must founding director. Patrick is back with us again to discuss what happened with polling again in this election. Thanks for coming back with his. Patrick i see you quoted all over the press and it's great that our listeners get to hear from the horse's mouth so to speak. It's my pleasure good to be with you all at. Let's start with you. Less than patrick was here. We started by asking you if pulling was a new thing or did our founders take voters temperature you explained. The polling has been around for a good long time. the question. this is a bit harder have the polls in the past been an accurate reflection of election day results modern survey techniques. Start around the thinking thirties. During the depression with organization. Started by george gallup and roper. They've had a mixed track record. They can do along those early races. Link and not call roosevelt winter down to his vote then after he was gone. Probably my favorite. Was that amazing election between dewey and truman when the press was calling it for do indeed. Just before the election gallup famously declared about pulling we have never claimed infallibility but next tuesday the whole world will be able to see down to the last percents point how good we are and then he proceeded his dui will win strongly so they did find out down. The last percentage point did they weren't very good. They were the ballpark and when you had landslides such as run up they get those right though. The numbers wouldn't be very accurate and so it goes. It's a bit of a guessing game so getting down to this election patrick. Sorry if you're just too hot there but the new york times article by cohen and he talked about how. The poll systematic understatement. President trump support was very similar to the polling misfire. Four years ago. It might have acceded. So patrick in reality pulling lost some credibility in two thousand sixteen then had years of trump attacking the polls as rigged incorrupt. Now at least appear that pollsters even yours miss the mark in this election by quite a bit. What is up with that as a guiding. Donald trump. I think is our our best hypothesis. You're you're comparing this to twenty sixteen but you have to also remember. There were interim elections elections in seventeen states. There are midterm elections in two thousand eighteen all which ended polling normally does. There's always a margin of error involved polling but you actually did pretty well in eighteen. I believe we did. We did everyone in eighteen. Wasn't that we were missed it by that much in twenty by a little bit more. Twenty there was a consistent polling era. It wasn't like some polls missed it by the states and others didn't they were all often basically one direction. We actually don't have that as much this time around look at the polls out there and there are people out there trying to capture this shy trump though by making all these mythological tricks asking people who thought the rest of their social circle was going to vote for and then using that as a surrogate for their actual your own boat. Yeah one of the things you talked about. One of the articles was waiting. Can you explain how that works. Waiting is just the fact that we know that nowadays that we don't get the proper number of people in each category that should be in the electorate and we have to do. Is we have to make an adjustment for this. We've been doing this for years and this is not been a problem. It's only a problem win. The group that you're waiting say for example white men under the age of forty without a college degree. And you're waiting into the proper proportion but the in your sample were under age forty without college degree. Don't have exactly the same type of political leanings as those who didn't interview then you end up with an hour. That waiting cannot fix because there's something else going on other than those demographic factors that you missing your polling this is that idea. The trump vote is that there are certain types of white male voters under the age of forty without a college degree. who won't talk to pollsters. They support donald trump. and therefore that's one of the reasons why the polls may have been often. Tell us a little about how you reach people general because i know when i get a call from a phone number that i don't recognize i don't answer the call and frankly probably wouldn't take the time to talk to a poster. And how do you find people who are actually willing to talk to you and then how do you take into account that. You're only talking to people who are willing to talk to you. It's tough one of the things. Since i got into polling over twenty five years ago it was a response of people are less willing to pick up the phone. When i started. There is no such thing as cellphone. Those things caller. Id if your phone rang you pick it up off because to know was on the other side get it to stop bringing and one of the things was gone from a university baseball to you automatically had instant credibility back then. One of the things that has changed significantly now is not only the people. Don't wanna be bothered enough. Pick up the phone and particularly. Don't recognize the number or even doing things by email. All sorts of other methods of using to reach out to people. Were just low. What we need to do is make sure that we have an accurate representation of the sample. And if you can't get the right people into the sample regardless of what method that you use. That's where the problem lies. We have a bigger problem here than just typical polling elections. We still have to actually figure out what happened with his legend. And we won't know until we actually get the information back from each of these states that you pulled in terms of who voted who didn't from our samples can start. Mashing them up trying to figure out how much of it was a demographic next systematic thing that we could fix. And how much did it was something that was inimical to a change. In the entire political social interactions that we have the country that means that polling cannot be quite as accurate as it has been in the past so that being said it's understandable. One of the things that jane has talked about a number of times on our show is the idea that polling now has to deal with people whose communication methods social media. They don't answer the phone ever let everything. Go to voicemail. Maybe they call back. Texting seems to be their thing. How you dealing with a whole generation of people whose communication style is filtered in that way to testing out textiles for example doing texted polling on the cape for doing a pole. And this is why we've always had concerns about how accurate positivity being elections is that you need to know the population is before you even start polling and when we're pulling election we don't know the population is we don't know until after they actually voted is different than when you're pulling say election in sweden or australia where everybody votes because they have to. When you say you know the population as you mean. You don't know who is the universe of people who will actually vote in that election right. we don't know that we're taking guesses. The universe of people who are eligible to vote in the election but we only got two thirds of them even in high turnout election like we just had to actually shut the vote. The question is is the one third that doesn't vote skewed or if we go from an election where we one hundred thirty five million people for years ago to one hundred sixty million people in this election. What does that extra point. Five million people look like because we don't know who they are after the show up and if they skew direction from what we estimate them to be then the polls are going to be off and going to be because they tried to do something to try to predict future and this is something that has always been true. There's nothing to do with current trends. Go back in the history of polling. There's always been this problem and how you predict what the who's gonna vote in different elections and you know one of the issues that we should consider is really polls due to different things. They survey public opinion and separately. They forecast elections at. Why do you feel like posed forecast. Election people ask them to do they ask them to serve as a way withdraws into watching television joe's and listening to podcast because they're predicting they're forecasting what they do going back to the introduction here. It's partially because the media misuses these polls. It's kind of like using a fork to eat your soup. Do they really misuse them. They do they use them as an entertainment method as a way to look affirmative and giving the listener or reader the impression that they're predicting the future of that election and it's not what the polls are made for right. Patrick yes you're you're asking about the technical mechanical aspects of. How do we deal with people who are changed the way that they communicate. That's easy peasy stuff to be honest with you. I mean we have to think about. We have to deal with the reason. Why calls have been accurate as we've gotten technically better at doing polling is because elections tend to be fairly stable in the last week an election if you pull in the last week or not forgiving. What's gonna happen because nothing changed between the time. The poll was taken and the election happened. And that's my forecast. Good if things change very radically that happened in two thousand sixteen was one of the key reasons why we found out that polls raw. Lotta people change their mind at the very last minute literally in the last hours before going to vote. That had a significant impact weather spells. Were wrong three sixteen. Guess what if you do a search. And i do. These searches all the time whenever we're pulling a new electric different reason. A different state s issue questions. The questions one out of forty questions. I asked him whole. But it's the one that always gets reported so when i do a search for issues in that state. I can't find them because almost all of the media hits that i get are who's the head of the or who's got more money right so i agree with you but the media has not taken proper role in this has nothing responsibility. Forced the forecasters use our polling data that we provide to them for free to create their models of predictions to have not done as well if he's prediction markets. Now and that's the problem the media itself they don't wanna look at the issue questions and because that's boring who's the head of new zealand. Well because it's an entertainment medium clearly and so patrick. Monmouth is the rolls royce of pollsters. So i'm gonna talk about some of your results this election and i'd like to understand from your perspective. What happened in. We're gonna start with an easy one that you called right but the numbers were way wrong day. Before the election with announced the biden had a five to seven point lead over trump in penalty. of course it turned out to be a point at the end. This is an one because you called it right that just the numbers were off a bit. What happened in pennsylvania. We don't know the transfer that for example. When i called penalty for years ago i didn't know the answer to that question till months later. We got our results back that show that a lot of our likely voters that we had thrown into this model. That polling is not perfect doing a lot of those hillary clinton voters that were stayed home so we won't know that until we can get a verify who actually go to who that didn't talk to us actually voted to see if there was a shot trump of there so we don't know the answer to that what happened in florida south florida as the results are coming in on election night county by county and i'm looking at this results i think it looks An dade came in. And did you guys miss miami and your polling. We had a significantly higher for joe biden in that part of the state particularly polling latino voters and so forth is very difficult in that particularly in south florida. But that's where the most we don't have exact. Did you say polling. Latino voters in south florida difficult. Yes there are among the most difficult to get on patrick's defense here in terms of resources spokesman. I've heard aila who is currently a congresswoman from that area but lost in this election and g reported that among her base it turn out with seventy five percent among her opponents base the with eighty five percents that accounted for the entire difference in her winning versus loose so it was turned out and of course pulls a no way to know that the cuban boat was gonna turn out in such huge numbers. Patrick before we continue. We're gonna take a thirty second break and we'll be right back on medicine. We're still practicing. Join dr steven and bill kurtis for real conversations with the medical professionals who have their finger on the pulse of healthcare in the modern world available on all your favorite podcasting platforms produce micro media about the whole idea to this. Podcast is to try to figure out how much responsibility we want to give to the posters. And how we went away this kind of information in the future. So what i wanna know. Patrick is there were issues with florida back in the two thousand sixteen election. What were the changes you made in your polling methods between sixteen and twenty to take into account the miss that you had four years ago. One of the things that we were looking at was the difference between cuban voters. And what are. We can voters and voters of other latino origins because we go differently. I mean there's no such thing as a monolithic voting block. The mrs seem to happen most significantly in areas where we had a large latino so that we south florida that be texas. There's also misses in the textiles as well. We didn't miss it as much in arizona for example so we have to look about why that was different but that was the areas where a different than the area to the big area that we missed again was in rural parts of the midwest from pennsylvania on west so if you take the polls that we did and section them out regionally within those states there are parts of the regions of the saints where we were. We were right on the money and our other regions interstates where we weren't and those the regions that were heavily populated by these different talking about the latino voters in south east or these white working class voters in rural parts of the of the midwest. Okay so patrick. Clearly it was evident in this particular case that there were some really tall walls that differentiated voting that was happening in cities and voting. That was happening in the rural areas. You probably knew coming in right to this election. So what were the adjustments. You made a little early in the program. You were talking about waiting now. I always am scared with the concept of waiting because that means we know what we want the decisive than we make things differently so that the results say what we want. Maybe you can tell us how you waited. Cities versus rural areas. And how you might change that in the future. What we start with the base of all registered voters in the state that we had a registered voter deadlines so we know who the registered voter demographics. Where before we started. That was the key so we knew whether their party registration wasn't states that have party registration we age gender. The race was we had to ask about. Education is one of the things. We have to provide an estimate for because of our us with educational attainment. But those are the things that we make sure that are represented correctly. The problem is that we might have the right proportion of a certain group of voters but the individuals within that group that we have in our sample even with waiting may be different because of a bigger difference ever now experience pulling with people being willing to take part in polls that the certain type of person might not be able to parts that we have them represented demographically but they are skewed because politically people who don't want to take part in polls in that particular demographic group are more likely to support trump in the sport joe biden. We're doing this autopsy on the twenty thousand. That is not the big problem that we're facing. The problem is a problem. I've been playing all on others and appointing which is questions that we ask the things that we do that. Hold up a mirror public on issues that tell us about who we are as as a people. We can't get honest answers to those questions anymore because people are interpreting questions through a lens partisanship in a way that they never had before. And i'll give it to this questions which is right now only finances. Are you struggling stable or getting ahead. That seems like streetwear question right. Nobody's willing to getting ahead right. We started seeing over the past few years that that starts correlating more with their partisanship and it does with other s such as have you lost your job cova noise. Your income level of kobe and people will report that answer. The question about the general overall financial picture in a way that reflects on what their partisan views are. We even ask question about the plan to take a vacation. That you're just stand question we've been asking forever about sixty percents sixty percents at this time around accepts. We got a partisan differences time. There's never a partisan difference planning ticket vacation. We got seven democrats saying that the clinton take a vacation only forty five percent plan to take a vacation because he wouldn't question which is the canceled because koga and so what we had is a number of lying and saying that they were planning ticket vacations they blame donald trump for having to and we had a number of republicans lying and saying they plan on taking vacation because they didn't want to get the blame for them having to cancel it and then we ask further questions argue actually taking a vacation this year than the partisanship disappeared. So we're findings. We can't ask these kind of opinion questions of what. Do you think how you think things are going to ask these more specific behavioral questions to get answers. Patrick going follow up on what you just said because you were accusing these people of lying now. Isn't it possible they just proceed differently that these democrats said yeah. I was thinking about a vacation. But i couldn't go. Because trump and the republicans just the opposite that is that it's not really lying was just they actually did remember and proceeded can take a stab at that. Patrick patrick you referred to the shy trump voter at the top of the show. Clearly there was a large number of people who really didn't want to admit out loud that they were planning to vote for trump. It's kind of like if if if i hired you guys to do a survey on where you were going into the markets and asking. Everybody how much do you weigh. The chances of you getting answers a question like that. It's pretty challenging. I guess my question that stems from ed's question is does this mean that you know poor baby pulling his difficult and we should feel sorry for you but we should ignore your polls in the future or guy's gonna do something to get your arms around this thing and convince us that by the next election. We can rely on the information we receive. No i don't. I'm not asking for any sympathy whatsoever. What i'm saying to you folks were asking these questions about what happened in twenty twenty and the answers. Donald trump. i'm saying to you. We have a problem that you need to be paying attention to send some cases by focusing so much obsessing on what happened in twenty twenty race is you're playing into that media portrayal of polls that rousing. We have a bigger problem here. If polling can't do the job it's supposed to do elections because if not the job is designed to do and if we can't get on it answers to those questions and so you know you're putting people in terms of how they see something. They might filter it a little differently. That's the problem is that they are filtering in a way that people can filter these questions before some trent questions transgender applying because people are not filtering it through a lens that they never used before. Here's what i'm worried about. Particularly trump if that turns out to be a very significant factor. What happened in twenty twenty. What is that saying to us is that we've entered an era of authoritarianism where people distrust institutions so much not about distrusting polling. It's about distressing the media distressing government-owned cannot operate in that kind of environment and be accurate. It's not about pulling pulling requires a policy and a and a social construct where people feel that they can express their opinions about what's going on in the world honestly without facing some type of a downfall because of that and that's what i'm worried about is that we may have entered a situation where we can't you can't pull accurately authoritarian country. I think i think it's more hyper partisanship than the authoritarianism. I also think that distrust institutions extends to polling companies. i think also there's a certain element of the trump. Vote that bills that a lot of people don't want to admit they voted for trump. And secondly the other part is i think there's a certain percentage of trump supporters who voted for him. Because they did want to bring down the institutions they wanted to destroy things and pulling companies impose a part of the credit institutions. So if they lie and they get results basically. They'd like yeah. I think so. I mean you have a presidency pass for years. I've been promoting chaos. This is what i'm concerned about. Is that point where people distrust us enough and not just polls this is. What i'm saying is is this the reason why the polls were off then probably isn't polls. The problem is our political culture. It's a bigger problem because we don't trust me and you don't trust government itself. How can government stand. What does the consent of the governed actually mean with us public institutions. Actually because we might get to the point where we don't have that anymore if that's what polling missiles off in two thousand twenty. That's a huge problem for the republic. John adams is my big hero of the american revolution and the one thing that he did wrong is wrong with aliens. snacks. But i'm going going on right now. And i fully understand the motivation of a new president and being worried about these forces that are working to undermine our system. The other thing you haven't quite touched on it's been happening is for four years you've had a president who's made lying the norm and you don't think about that but it just makes it socially acceptable to not tell the truth. Patrick i i do have to say that i can certainly understand how the donald j trump factor could mess up a pole. But that's not the only place where we polling wrong. Downstate was a real problem. Perfect example was in iowa. Monmouth university said the democrat tower. Our had a fifty two to forty four lead over republican ashley hinson and of course the results word exactly opposite the republican same thing with rita heart held a nine point lead in your estimates over miller meeks and the exact opposite happened. There were a lot of those in the downstate market. Do you say trump had something to do with those polls as well. Why did we call the house seats. I think so. I think what we found was by the way. Those campaigns internal polls both republican also showing very similar numbers And not just in those. You mentioned by across the country. So wasn't just the posters ever off the only positive beyond was donald trump's poster into what he claims so this is industry wide. What happened was if you take the shot trump voters and they're going to come out and we're missing them in the polls were also missing them voting straight ticket down ballot so you just add numbers to everybody down ballot. Patrick can you explain the difference between the public posters and campaign. Pollsters obviously very research and information during campaigns is extremely price confidential. Can you give us a sense. For what is the difference between the posters and the presidential campaign pollsters in particular what we do as politicians public record. And you you can go and you can. All you want the private schools. There's nothing criticized cultures and say the wrong and we had it right but by the way we're not showing you aren't data so you have trust us on that. Do they pull in much more detail down to districts down to precincts statewide poll for whoever their clients so if they're pulling a house races for the house district but even presidential polls at their polling subgroups within states that are important to them to figure out. Can we move this. What kind of message. This is what they're doing is they're asking here. Are some messages that we could test. Which ones are more likely to move our voters out and get them out to vote. You know the message that they attest that was successful was caller joe biden socialist in spanish language appetizers for cubans insofar until these are kind of things that they say how how effective is going to be and the polls tell him that then they use a modeling that jessica. How much can we move these folks in win this election if we can do that so they use multiple modeling when they're doing internally so you don't know exactly which course number is their actual number that they started off with because ask the first question multiple times him out that poll to see where things are moving so they might say how we do this. We move it this way. This is what we think is going to be problems. Have asterik historian. I did want to mention that polling. This year is no better or worse than it's ever been. I mean it just like atlanta was going to beat roosevelt or it was going to be. Truman can just go right through the years and this sort of results have always happened. And i'm wondering if it's tied to the historical view going all the way back. Nineteen thirties one. Problem with getting surveys is a lot of respondents. Tend to say they think the pollster wants to hear and is that just another version of saying the shy trump voter is that they think they don't wanna hear voting for trump so just the old historical problem that they thought the posters wanted to hear that they were respectable and therefore voting for a week or respectable and not voting for rabble rouser roosevelt. Isn't that same sort of thing. And i think it's even worse than that. I mean we have techniques that we use to get around to make sure that whatever your opinion is for con it's equally as valid. Donald trump has changed that equation. Will you answer question about trump. and that's more than just talking about dewey. Truman who whoever in the past is not what you approve or disapprove of a certain presence job approval. Is that when you say you approve of disproven. Don't trump it's reflective who you are as a person that's where we are in society now an object of opinion that is well beyond just as distant president it is actually reflection of us in fact we had a significant number of people who said they know people who won't talk about supporting trump because they'll be called racist because being donald trump is a determinative. Are whether you are racist society. Which they know is bad. So yes the issue is that we hit this this social desirability pro which polls have problem with if we ask something of a sensitive nature that is going to be very difficult to get an honest response. That has not been an issue in the past about. We're gonna go on vacation or your finances are but suddenly it's turning into donald trump because donald trump himself has now become an object. That colts have to worry about in terms of desirability bias. In the way people answering the question in a way that no other president has before you. Don't patrick have to admit under some challenging circumstances you know i think polls to me or like it's the first thing in the morning and i can't help it and i'm always going to be following your polls because among pollsters you guys are the best so i can't ask you about some current event issues because i'd like to know what you're seeing for example. What do your polls say is happening with. Two senate seats in georgia now. I don't know because we haven't pulling towards them. I won't be pulling georgia because what are you afraid. There's also in fact georgia's one of the better robert in no i've been i've been much more concerned about the direction of the republic right now to be quite frank with you. This is the pulse should be doing is measuring those concerns. And that's what actually doing over the past month is spending my resources on that rather than try to help you folks who are junkies for questions about. Who's gonna win georgia so that being said then feeds right into my next question. Have you asked people any people. If they truly believe. Trump's delusional election fraud claims. I have not asked that in that way whether you're delusional. But we do find that. That three quarters of republican voters do believe that joe biden one only because of fraud that they have to that that number is regardless of whether that's a number of belief fraud or just simply being on team trump. That number is way way way too high for the health of the republic. That's what we need to be concerned about. Patrick moore your sport letting us grill you with all of these questions and i'm sure have been haunting your last month. I appreciate you joining us for letting us grill you so clearly monmouth and you are trying to do the right thing. And it's going to be some interesting thought that goes into realizing some of the things you said like we've got a bigger problem. Yeah but thanks for that. It's thought provoking show. Patrick when people want to follow you. How can they do that. yes they can. Follow me personally on twitter. At pollster patrick or at monmouth poll for polling institute or monmouth dot. Edu slash polling for our website. Where that we do is out there. Transparently you can look at our meeting. The hope tobacco's right there. That's what i do want to say in closing that with your deeper comments about the republic. You're using polling exactly how it should be used. You're getting beyond simply forecasting elections looking at what this means and what your findings mean for the health of our republic. Thank you for doing that. My pleasure patrick. Murray monmouth university. We certainly hope that you come back and join us again. And we really do need. Perspective like the thought-provoking comments that you gave today. Thanks again to ed larson. Jane albrecht appreciate you coming in today to our producer. Aj moseley sound mastering spice brickyard music for me in the middle composed and performed by celestin. Eric dick and our executive producer for this episode is helping wait. Wait hold the music for second. You know it's like that feeling when the hurricane is left your town and now major cleanup is required in a weird way. You sort of miss that terribly destructive storm because it was kind of a multi car pileup on the freeway. It's hard to look away. It's gonna be weird waking up in the morning after january twentieth turning on the news again thinking that will see some new outrageous idiotic move our delusion est and chief today designed to test our collective sense of decorum and realizing that the storm is gone. The sun's out again. Cleanup may not be exciting. But it's better than cnx. Make everybody media media for your mind.
Politics with Amy Walter: How North Carolina's Electoral Process is Unfolding
"Support for the takeaway comes from hint water. Hint is water infused with fruit essences like watermelon and blackberry no sweeteners no calories in stores are delivered direct to your door from drink hint dot com hint water with a touch of true fruit flavor. Listener supported. W NYC studios. His politics with Amy Walter on the takeaway. The bedrock of our democracy is free and fair elections. But it's not a given. It requires a lot of us the system itself is built on trust. Now, the president has been sowing seeds of distrust throughout the course of the campaign using his bully pulpit spread conspiracy theories about the integrity of absentee ballots. And it's having an impact. A recent monmouth university poll found that almost forty percent of Americans don't believe that the elections will be conducted barely inaccurately. Majority of Americans in that poll said, they think the trump campaign will try to cheat if necessary to win in November. While thirty nine percent say the same thing of the Biden campaign on top of it all of course is a pandemic. That makes going to the polls or staffing those polls a serious health risk for many. All of this has meant that state election officials are under an unprecedented level of scrutiny and pressure. and. That's why over the course of the next three weeks will virtually venture to three swing states to hear how election officials in some of the most watched states are preparing. These conversations are part of a series. We're calling every vote counts and this week brought us to North Carolina. Myself. Anita shirl. North Carolina. Hello everyone. It's great to be here at UNC Greensboro. What a great North Carolina Day North. Carolina, it's a state full of wise voters and I can truthfully say Nothing. Could be finer than to be. Carolina. Aside from Barack Obama in two thousand, eight, the state hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter in one thousand, nine, hundred, seventy, six but polls show President Donald Trump and former vice president joe, Biden, neck, and neck. Also on the ballot is a hotly contested Senate race that could determine control of that body and voting is already underway on September fourth. The state began sending out mail in ballots I sat down with David Sir Kosta Chair of the North Carolina State Board of elections. Find out how it's going. Now unlike many states, North Carolina's election process is overseen not by a secretary of state but by a board of five, I started out by asking him how the board with three Democrats and two Republicans actually functions on the board of elections. There's five of us and not one of US think of ourselves primarily partisans. The Republicans aren't there to look out for Republican votes and I'm not there to look after democratic votes. We do a good job of making sure that all votes count we're we're the plumbers of. Democracy all we're trying to do is make sure that our pipe flow that everybody can get to their polling place or vote by mail or early in do it in a way that makes sure that their vote counts. So there's a partisan played to be made by others, but on the board itself, it's very, very nonpartisan in fact, one of the Republican. Members and I we co authored an op Ed right when the pandemic began about voting in the pandemic and how we all need to work together to make it happen. So if we have a very, very close election in North Carolina, you expect no matter what that this process is going to be carried out in. As open transparent and nonpartisan way. Possible even if you see, for example, the president way in or other political figures way in Talk about the pressure that you may feel your your colleagues may feel. The pressure. Really I mean obviously partisan actors are going to do what partisan actors do. Our job isn't to decide who north. Carolinians vote for our job is to just make sure your vote counts in. That's our North Star at the board of elections. So I don't see any pressure and I don't see any opportunity for that pressure to have any effect on what we do. It's it's boring in most years obviously, there's a lot more attention being paid to voting into voting in North Carolina this year, but but the job remains the same and that's just to make sure that we get it done. Right? It's not glamorous sometimes, it's exceedingly. But that tediousness is for reasons so that we can make sure that we get to count actor. Let's look at your preparedness for the fall. We know that there's a record number of absentee ballot applications requests that have come in talk us about. The preparedness at the local level and what this would mean from small town versus a big urban center and everything in between. We Kinda got lucky in twenty twenty. This was the first year in which we conducted our primary election during Super Tuesday. So the actual first case of covid nineteen was on primary election day here in Wake County So our our big election in the spring didn't that didn't happen before the pandemic. Had, a smaller congressional, primary second primary. So we got a little bit of a taste of what we would need to do to make sure that our election here in the falls going to operate. Well, here's the good news. Election administrators don't just work one or two days a year they're at at three, sixty five and lately it's been twenty, four seven. We learned a lot from other states we've been on top of all the processes that we need to make sure that it goes smoothly and we've had some built in advantages that were in our law well before covid nineteen. So a good example of that is how we Prepare your absentee vote by mail in order for it to be counted. First things. First, we were the first state in the Union to start sending those out. We started on September fourth, and we're very proud that almost seven hundred thousand haven't checked today absentee ballot requests went to us and we're getting those out as we speak. Not only do we have the opportunity to get out early those ballots out early but when they come back, we can do everything but the tabulation in the weeks leading up to the election. So a group of bipartisan board of Electors Review each ballot, the envelope in the container, and make sure that it's sufficient in secure, and then we do everything except tabulate those. So come election day, we'll be ready to go with all of our tabulation work and we'll be able to get many of. Our results out right there November, third for all the people who voted absentee by mail all the people who voted early and then as election-night rules on after the polls, close will start tabulating those votes as well. Well, I'm so glad you walked us through that because that was one many questions that we got from your state was when will vote by mail be counted. So what it sounds like you're saying is you can get the process all set up, make sure that all the absentee ballots are. Valid and then the day of the election. Starting. At. What time can they actually start saying Okay Adam up? So we don't tabulate until the polls close in the reason we don't do that as we don't want anybody to know beforehand what the results might be going into election day. But we can do everything beforehand ready to go. So as you said, we can review the absentee ballot. It's called the absentee ballot container, which is the envelope in which your ballot comes in. Make sure that's ready to go. We can get the ballot ready scam it get it in the tabulation machine, and then on election day every ballot that came to us before election day we will tabulate right. Then when the polls close there'll be some late breaking ballots people who the. Mail their absentee vote by mail in late. We will count those. So long as they're postmarked by Election Day, we'll count them up to three days after election day. So we'll get all of those those done, and then any balance there was any question on needed to go through a curative process will count those as well. But the overwhelming majority of our ballots will be counted on election day and into before sunrise if you will on on Wednesday morning, we'll have. Done that's not the case everywhere, and we're very proud of that here in North Carolina. You make a really good point though it needs to be postmarked by election day. We know there's been a lot of back and forth about the role of the postal service in this election if the is really really close, will you know how many ballots you expect to still come in? After Election Day. All certainly have a rough idea because you have to request your absentee ballot and we'll know how many outstanding requests there are. Some of those people might have chosen to go vote on election day you're allowed to request an absentee ballot and so long as you don't try and vote ballot, you can go in and vote in person, and so we'll have a rough idea of how many outstanding ballots there will be. It's really important for people to understand that our job is to get it fast. Our job is to get it right and we're GONNA do everything. We can to move as quickly as we can. But this is the middle of pandemic. We are anticipating a huge surge in the number of voters who choose to vote absentee by mail and those take more time to process. So we're GONNA ask the public for some patients and we're GONNA ask that everybody just sit tight and take a breath I think here in in twenty twenty a little bit of everybody just Kinda relaxing a bit is probably a good idea for all sorts of reasons. And we'll get done. It will get through it and we'll get through it together. Do you have an expectation for what percent of the vote you think is going to come early absentee versus in person internally we've been looking at. Anywhere between twenty and forty percent of North Carolina voters choosing to use their vote absentee by mail. We also have had a good history in the last decade or two of early voting and a lot of voters using the roughly two week period from October Fifteenth Talk Tober thirty I to to vote early so. There's a good chance that. North of seventy percent of our voters will have cast their ballot before November third. Well. So. Let's talk about that in person process Obviously what we saw during the primaries where a lot of. Places that normally had been open. For. Voting were closed either because they didn't have the poll workers to staff them or because they were in places that quite frankly weren't safe. During a pandemic senior centers schools, etc. What is the in person situation going to look like in? North Carolina at this moment and do you think you're going to get the number of poll workers and the number of polling places that you need? Well? On both fronts. I'm optimistic about poll workers for two reasons one in a bipartisan fashion. The General Assembly passed a bill that let's pull workers be from in the county in which they're registered, not simply the precinct which registered. So that will give us a little bit more flexibility in how we staffed polling places. We have over twenty five, hundred election day polling places as well as almost five hundred early voting, a places to vote, and that's a lot of stacking that we need to do. We're anticipating a need for nearly thirty thousand election workers in order to achieve the election. The reason I'm optimistic that will get those thirty thousand election workers as we've seen North Carolinians step up. We ran something called a democracy heroes campaign said not all heroes wear capes some work on elections and what we did at the state level is we opened a portal that let anybody. Know their interest, and then we're sending those interests forms to the county so they can use that in there already. Staffing preparations we've had seventeen thousand North Carolinians. Fill out an interest form that's on top of all the work that the counties are doing. I'm an election nerd I've been around this work for a long time and it nothing warms my heart more to see that people are taking the real interest in making sure that their friends and neighbors can vote and vote in voted away that's convenient and safe and accessible, and so I am optimistic that we're going to have our polling places fully operational and that we're going to have everybody step up. To do that work so that people can vote quickly on election day and during the early voting process and frankly during the mail in process, which also takes a fair amount of staff North Carolina and voting as you very well know been in the news recently thinks some comments. The president recently made encouraging voters to vote by mail and then go in person to make sure that that ballot was actually counted. Can you talk about that for a minute about what that would look like? Certainly. The first thing I'll say is in regards to the president's comments we sent out a statement earlier on that specific incident but generally speaking what I wanna talk about is the notion of double voting. If you. Attempt to vote twice fraudulently in North Carolina that's a felony in you will go to jail. And believe me we know how to catch you. If you're trying to simply verify your vote, you're doing a disservice for a couple reasons. First of all, we give you plenty of options to verify your absentee vote by mail. You can do it without leaving the comfort of your own home. You can do it online. You can call Your County Board of elections you can send an email and we can certainly verify whether or not. Your vote has been received in tabulated. Secondly, when you go to the polling place having already voted what you're doing is you're taking the spot of somebody else who hasn't voted in that line in you're gonNA, make it more challenging for your friends and your neighbors and other people knew who need to do their civic duty and that that's discouraging for lotteries and so I will say the everybody one if you intend to defraud us. You will go to jail to there are plenty of ways to make sure that your vote counts in three. Make sure your neighbors have the opportunity to vote as well. David I have to say that the number three is the thing that I kept thinking about is what happens. When two hundred people show up at seven thirty in the morning at the local polling place all asking these poll workers to double check and make sure that their vote was cast. Meanwhile, there's a long line out the door if people who still are waiting to vote in this creates gums up the whole works is that what you're thinking as well I'm concerned about that I want to. Assure, everybody that if you vote absentee vote by mail up, we're going to count your vote. What I will suggest to all voters. Is Make a plan. and. Make your plan as early as possible. So if you choose to absentee vote by mail request your ballot Arlen and get your ballot back in as soon as you ready. If you're going to early vote, we've got a seventeen day period in which to do it. Typically, the first day is really busy and then the next ten, there's plenty of room, and then it gets busier and busier as as the last few days approach. So if you're going to early vote. Do that early and if you're going to vote on election day, I would suggest you do that as early as you can you know making a plan and having contingencies. So if the babysitter doesn't show or something comes up at work, you've already done your civic duty I. Think it's just smart planning on everybody's part, and I hope voters will do that when it comes to how they choose to. But let me ask you this question if we got one of these from. A listener. I, think it was a listener from Raleigh who was saying, what if? I do request ballot, and it hasn't come like how how nervous should I be that I haven't gotten my ballot yet it should be a week. Should it be? Days. What's what's the process in which you would say to a voter? You know what? Cash that's that you should definitely would say one give us a little bit of time especially in these early days. But if you don't hear from us the middle of this month than certainly check in with us and see what's going on I would say to you if it's tour towards the end and it's crunch time and you're still waiting for a absentee requests ballot, you still have options during the early voting period. And during the election day I know people have some concerns about Kobe nineteen in in being safe? Let me tell you going to vote is going to be safer than a trip to Walgreens we have secured enough P for all of our election workers as well as our voters We're doing a social distancing where keeping people space and we're moving through relatively quick. So we don't anticipate you being indoors all that long so. There's plenty of ways to do this, and if you don't hear from us on your absentee vote by mail request to give us a little bit of time, and if you're still concerned, you still have other options here in North Carolina. Are. You getting those same kind of questions I'm curious in it's not just the president's remarks but. The issue of absentee ballot and early vote and safety being talked about constantly. What are the sorts of questions that you all are fielding at your office from from North Carolinians one of the thing that we election nerds election administrators have to remember is that while we live and breathe this stuff every day most north, Carolinians don't think about the election process all that often. So it's understandable that there are lot of questions. People really are trying to figure out what's going on I will say that, yes, we're getting a lot of the questions that you've asked and I'd say the one of the most important things you can do when you're seeking answers about your election process is go to trusted sources of information. So obviously us at the North Carolina State Mortem Elections B. E. DOT GOV is our website. We'd completely revamped it to make it more friendly. There's a trusted source of information go to to new sources that you have trusted for some time in check a couple of different news sources in case somebody. Got It. Wrong. The fact of the matter is it's a lot of information. The process is very demanding. If you're not familiar with it, and so what you WanNa do is make sure that we make it easy for you. In the way we make it easy for you is by sharing as much information about it as. Beforehand, and being as transparent as we go ahead and count the votes, how worried are you speaking of trusted sources of information that they're either through nefarious means this could be. Russians or other foreign. Governments. or through just you know the kinds of conspiracies that start out as US facebook post, and then somehow make their way through the viral process. that that really is making what you do so much harder and that some of these conspiracy theories or whether again whether they were placed there intentionally or not are going to deter. People from voting or impact. How people vote? Over the last couple of years you mentioned a Russian interference. There's been rumors going around somehow the voting apparatus or the machines are not secure and I can one hundred percent guarantee you that the hacking of elections will not happen because somebody's able to hack our machines in North Carolina everybody will have a paper ballot in whether or not you mark that paper ballot with a stylus or using a ballot marking device, and we spit out a ballot for you that you can review. Everybody's got a paper ballot so we can go back and audit these things if we need to. The machines themselves are not hackel what is tackle. Is. The mind of the voter and that's what the Russians did in two thousand sixteen and that's what nefarious folks will try and do again. The thing you can do to protect protect yourself from being hacked is being very, very intentional about where you get your information I want to cast aspersions on social media, accounts and social media feeds of one at the State Board of elections but the best sources of information are going straight to the source itself or two trusted a longstanding news organizations. The news organizations that have been in business for a long time have a reputation and a history of creating journalism verifying facts making sure what they're saying is true. And then we at the board of Elections a are only job is to make sure that you understand how to cast your ballot so. If. We're trying to prevent hacking. We need to worry less about the machines in which are used to conduct voting in more about people who are trying to spread misinformation, and in the best way we can inoculate ourselves against that type of hacking is to not trust anyone source of information and to make sure that we do our homework in who's talking to us. And how much work Damon are you doing yourself to knock down any of these rumors that start I mean, for example, I saw the Ohio Secretary of state on his twitter feed. He actually broke down what he saw on facebook as this conspiracy that was floating around that. Apparently you all send out different balanced different people can track who they're voting for. Right. You think it's a secret ballot. These letters here it means. They know you voted for a Democrat or Republican, and then someone can throw your ballot out. What I worry about too is people walking around the weeks leading up to early vote and Election Day with their. iphones their you know hand-held phones and and taking. Either photographs or videos of things that they think are nefarious whether that's with the postal office worker somebody they say is illegally harvesting ballots. How much work is the North Carolina Board of elections going to do to push back on every one of these at least the ones that make it into the social media at a at a pretty high level. Lot of people are watching it. Can say speaking of bipartisan bipartisanship I. Don't know the Ohio Secretary of state but I saw on meet the press he was on with our executive director last week, and he's doing an excellent job of pushing back against some of those nefarious misinformation campaigns here at the North Carolina, State Board of elections. We have the same job which is to push back in be speaking constantly to folks like you. We have a social media feed we've got a wonderful public information office. That pushes out as much as we can. It's it's incumbent upon us as election administrators to let the world know about what we're doing and let them see I mean every time we have an opportunity to show you exactly how we do this process of it's an opportunity for for you to see the job will be secure your vote will count, and so it's hard in a fractured media environment as we've had here for the last fifteen, twenty years, it's even more challenging. But it's it's a big part of our job and we take it seriously. Are I want to thank you so much for taking all of this time. Walking us through this process is really helpful. Thank you. For most of the last forty years North Carolina had been a rather reliable republican state. But since two thousand eight, the state has become much more competitive. Barack Obama. Nearly one here by less than point in two thousand, eight Mitt Romney. Carried the state by just two points trump. Won It. I just three? This state is big and diverse. It has fast growing urban centers like Charlotte in the research triangle, but it also has huge rural stretches as well. And reaching voters here is incredibly expensive because there's not just one may media market that encompasses the majority of voters. To understand a bit more about the political dynamics at play. In North Carolina, I spoke to Rusty Jacobs Politics Reporter W UNC North Carolina Public Radio and Michael Blitzer professor of Political Science Akaba College I asked Michael. If it's an influx of voters to the state that has made North Carolina more competitive, it is certainly in migration we are seeing more and more people registering. UNAFFILIATED that does not mean that they are independent or nonpartisan, but they are just choosing to go unaffiliated in the state because they want to have options. Particularly when it comes to party primaries, unaffiliated voters can vote in either one I would also add that there is a geographic in a generational dynamic that is playing out really that mirrors kind of the national dynamics I think. What we're seeing geographically, it's urban versus rural but in the suburbs of North Carolina, you have to kind of think about suburbs that are inside urban counties versus the excerpts, the surrounding suburban counties two very different dynamics playing out. There's also the generational component. There's thirty seven percent of our seven million registered voters are under the age of forty and so millennials, and now jen's ears. Are really going to reshape this stay and I think if they play true to the national. Dynamics week ago from center leaned right to center lean left in terms of north. Carolina politics moving forward rusty I. Want to get to you talk to us a little bit about the political environment right now in North Carolina when we look at national polls, it's the economy it's Cova did. A lot of issues surrounding, policing, and racial. Reconciliation. What is going on in north? Carolina. What do you think are the driving issues in? How do you see it playing out? Across the state that as Michael pointed out is so big and so diverse. Lot. Of those same things are happening. A lot of those discussions are happening just in the past few months I and my colleagues here at w UNC have covered protests really if you go towards the beginning of the pandemic public health restrictions that were imposed, there were gatherings outside the legislature by people who wanted to see some of those restrictions lifted and some of the economy opened the reopen a pro protests that you saw here in another states, but then after the killing of George Floyd Even bigger were widespread protests definitely with more diverse crowds with younger crowds and those protests continue. I would say if just comparing numbers. And and. You know broad array of citizenry the. Reopen demonstrations Kinda pale in comparison to the size and the volume of the demonstrations that have followed that ensued after. George Ford's killing. So in that respect, you've got this you know you've got the police chief of the demand for police reforms on the one hand and you've got You still got a loyal probably Republican electorate that wants to. See some of those restrictions lifted in easing or a in helping the economy get restarted, and you'll see that in the governor's race Dan Forest, who's the current Lieutenant Governor Challenging incumbent Roy Cooper is hoping that will help propel him. So you see in the governor's race certainly reflection of that debate economy versus continued public health restrictions and then of course. You know you've got a new A. New. Developments in the new cycle. That trump appointee leading the United States Postal Service has suddenly has his contributions going back a decade under scrutiny, and all of that is going to start factoring in the way people are are looking, and then one thing I'll I'll. Is that as Demonstra Kosta noted and is Michael Bitter will confirm some votes already being cast Wednesday it'd be cast are being based on the landscape now, not on whatever may happen in the next fifty days or so much. Yeah. I can't wait to get into that I wanted though follow up on your point about governor where Cooper who's up for reelection. His the lieutenant governor is a Republican right they run separately, which is how you can have a Democrat and a Republican as Governor Lieutenant. Governor. But my understanding was ray cooper especially in the beginning stages of the pandemic was enjoying some pretty good job approval ratings were right he was getting the public was supporting what he was doing how he handled the pandemic. Now that we're into September has that job approval that especially on that issue started to slip overall his policy in his approach and his steering of the State through this pandemic is is still supported by a majority of people that would be pulled. Ilan University, and Meredith College in Raleigh did polls recently and those indicated there were indications that. The not the plurality were not the majority of plurality of voter of registered voters expected voters do support a governor Cooper's decisions even though they council restraint and it's still there are still challenges to the economic. The economic commute or the business community that he does not seem to be damaged by those positions right and that they told debate back and forth between the president in the RNC and the governor over holding the Convention in Charlotte that doesn't seem to have hurt. The governor either does it would seem that Cooper is. Are. Viewed by. Critical number of voters it majority or plurality of voters in north. Carolina that he's making decisions based on what is best for the public not as what is best for him politically even though it may be getting cast that way by his opponents I'll know too that the cooper, the campaign hoover, the candidate, not the governor is trying to draw a lot of attention to the. Fact. That Lieutenant Governor Orest his challenger is holding in person donation into in-person campaign events despite the fact that those may present helpless Michael Let's get to the point that rescue brought up in that we talked a lot about with David Cer- Kosta about absentee ballot requests. You are following this more closely than certainly I think anyone in the country you send out wonderful gifts every day. Telling just what to expect from the upcoming trunch of absentee ballot requests. So here we are. It's September. What can you tell us about the voters who've been requesting the absentee ballots if you can break it down into the kinds of people? And the parts of the state. That requesting these ballots? Well. Typically for those folks who don't know much about care allina. A in two thousand, sixteen less than five percent of all the ballots cast came from absentee by mail in typically that vote method tends to be more Republican than the electorate as a whole. What we are seeing now is. Basically, ten percent of the seven million registered voters in the state have requested in absentee by mail ballot. That's seven, hundred, thousand, four years ago this same day the total number of ballots requested was a little over forty thousand. So basically, we are talking about sixteen times. What we saw this time for years ago we've already tripled the number of ballots that were returned. And accepted from twenty sixteen, and if we continue on this pace by the end of September, it looks like we could reach one point, seven million requests, which is a quarter of all the registered voters in this state. Now, the the breakdowns in terms of registration is really interesting because it is overwhelmingly coming from registered Democrats they are over a majority of all the requests. Registered unaffiliated or almost a third and registered Republicans that typically tended to dominate or only sixteen percent of all the requests. So something obviously is driving all of this. This is probably Cova infecting partisanship to a level that I haven't seen and I don't think. In North Carolina politics has seen this level of interest in terms of having a ballot in your hand. In case, something happens over the next two months how this plays out I'm not really sure the request are actually quite representative of the electorate religiously it skews older which is traditional, but it also very much skews to urban counties in particularly some congressional districts that are very competitive most notably the eleventh congressional district, Mark Meadows old district, which is now in open. Sea in the mountains of North, Carolina to rest his point, the I wondering if you can tell us what you think about how many of those ballots actually get returned in other words he made the point that well, if you were in the middle of this news cycle here in early September but in October, maybe something else happened that none of us can even assume Do you think that really does impact then the final outcome that people are going to? Be Voting at different times, and if Democrats have more of these absentee ballots in hand that it could. Benefit Democrats. You know I think in this environment anything goes and I think the the number of ballots that we will receive see returned this week remember just went out Friday I got my absentee by mail ballot. Today we have a federal holiday no mail came through. So I received my ballot today I think people who are returning in these first couple of weeks or the die hard power distance their minds are made up they're not going. To change their votes in. So the likelihood is we will get a flood of returns coming in the question is as I. Tell my students read the syllabus read the instructions you have to sign the back of the ballot envelope. You have to have a witness who also has to provide information and sign as well. If you don't do those things, the counties have the option. Of sending you an affidavit to attest to it or they will send you a second ballot saying your first ballot was invalid for these reasons make sure to do this read the instructions and then resubmit in two thousand sixteen. We saw about eighty seven percent of all the ballots requested return anaccepted granted also that some folks decided to vote in person that will automatically void the. Absentee by mail ballot. So there's no issues a Damon talked about of double voting, North Carolina because their records or so well kept, and I would also say in this state, the records are transparent. We know what's going on for those of us who studied this kind of dynamic one question Michael I'm going to start with you and then rusty I'm GonNa ask you about this. From Youtube. from Mary Cleanse who asked to talk about how the virus could be impacting student turnout specifically, college didn't turn out now that many are at home rusty obviously is in Chapel Hill, which has a lot of college students, of course. Michael. Blitzer, you're on a college campus. What do you think? I think certainly, a lot of students utilize absentee by mail voting they may be living outside of their hometown. They're attic college campus, they want that can. Be sent a ballot to their dorm. Often Times. What happens if if a college has closed down or they have to go back home, they will simply cancel that request void that request and then requested another one. They could also show up to vote in person as well. I, think for a lot of North Carolina voters who are probably requesting these ballots they can request the ballot and then return it in person to either early voting site or to their county. Board of elections. So as Damon noted, there's a lot of flexibility, but certainly, college students are a key, a group that is oftentimes targeted by grassroots mobilizing efforts, and if they're not on campus that really kind of loses the the punt shore, the impact trying to get them out to the polls we'll just kind of have to see how this all plays out in the data's we get over the next couple of weeks in two months I see what's going on. Chapel Hill Duke. Those schools obviously, that's a lot of students. What's the situation on the in person situation right now? Tumultuous I mean this. Is a great test case. They were one or two weeks into a semester where students were supposed to end actually attending class online and suddenly cases of Kobe's popped up and the school reversed course, and so those students aren't exactly the kind of situation you're conjuring with your question. You know if they had absentee ballot requests in and we're expecting to get them on campus, and now they're going back home. What can they do I? mean the best thing to do if anybody has a question is, of course, Chow Tat, contact the State Board of elections or their county. Elections Office or go online and issue another request but but you know it cannot be. Emphasized enough that once you have your ballot and that absentee ballots by hand, you don't have to mail it in. If you go in person to your county board of elections, go to an early voting site during that seventeen days or so of early voting but it's you know I it. There are the situation is complicated by the fact that you have an institution as big. As UNC had to reverse course and students had a group themselves and go back home because of the outbreak of Kobe's on campus right and I assume if you're a campaign that was planning on earlier this year targeting college campuses saying we're GONNA get on campus as soon as students are back in organize and get them registered to vote and turn them out for our candidate. Now what can they do? But my guess is they'll be a lot of phone banking and there will be a of cleanup by those groups I. Don't think any effort will be spared to make sure you know by organizations that Wanna see as many people load as possible. The question is just where do you reach them? Do you get the message time? My guess is, yes I mean again north. Carolina started sending up about sixty days ahead I mean the other states I think won't start for another two weeks or so forty five days out. So North Carolina has given itself a lot of breathing. Michael I want to get to this question too as the absentee ballot requests start turning into absentee ballots actually turned in what will that tell us if anything about the potential outcome in North Carolina. More, importantly, what can it not tell us? Well. I can't tell us until after seven thirty on November third right. You know those of us that watched the website for the State Board of elections are hitting refresh at seven thirty a one. To See, win these numbers get dumped, and oftentimes these early votes both the male and the in person early votes are the first numbers reported. We get a sense of how things are going in the sheer numbers but North Carolina has a unique dynamic in that in the past absentee by mail tended to favor Republicans. In person early voting tended to favor. Democrats. But then you switch back to Republicans on Election Day, and that's oftentimes what causes. This very competitive nature is that leads can be built up through these early votes, but then they get whittled down to competitiveness once the election day numbers come in certainly the dynamic of knowing is casting an absentee by mail vote get. The data we get the individualized information on these voters once they're accepted that gives us a little bit of a hint but I I'm you know it's twenty twenty? I'm not making any predictions whatsoever about what could happen over the next two months just based on numbers in the patterns playing themselves out here right. So don't read too much into this again if if indeed. Sets all seven hundred, thousand people turn those ballots in and they happen to be. More Democrats than Republicans at least by registration don't assume that means. Oh. Democrats. Are GonNa win the state exactly because we know from a lot of polling both nationally and starting here in north. Carolina. Democrats are preferring to vote by mail in Republicans are preferring to vote in person in. So that dynamic is really one to be careful in terms of trying to read the tea leaves. Rusty one other race I wanNA talk to you about because it's getting a whole lot of attention certainly here in Washington. That's a Senate race where Republican Thom Tillis freshman is in what looks like a by the polls very, very close race against Democrat cal Cunningham. Wonder if you can tell us. What your sense of were that races and whether you think that the fortunes of those candidates are tied to how well the top of the ticket does. So you're cal Cunningham, you need bite into win if you're Tillis, early need trump to win. Is. Certainly needs trump. And and needs need big turnout because he's tied his fate so closely. To trump and. You know she right now maybe beginning. Would say pulled under but snagged in the world pool of news. Again. Indications are from campaign finance records that Lewis. Joy. When he was running this company new breed and having some employees whether they were being coerced or not contribute to campaigns. Tom Tells was one of the recipients of money. That doesn't necessarily say anything bad about him, but it's going to require him to pay attention to that cal Cunningham is running a mainstream. Middle of the road democratic campaign very much like Joe Biden he's doesn't support of defunding the police. He supports reform he supports a public option with the ACA she's not making rat. He's not making radical pitches in terms of policy of he's running a very straight and middle of the road campaign and for him there's nothing much more to do than that. Right now, a lot of the work is being done for him by these new developments, a about campaign finance, and the fact that even Thom Tillis didn't wear masks at one of the aren't see eventually. Events when president trump spoke from from the White House. So again. You know the. For Cal Cunningham it's probably Stay keep cool and keep pushing very mainstream. Policies, and for for Tom, tell us it's playing a little defense. While while trying to hope again, as as bids said, ninety, five percent of the North Carolina Electric is probably decided I mean I've spoken to the most experienced political campaign consultants to out there and they'll tell you what it's coming down to his ten or twelve percent very small sliver of the people who call themselves on affiliate right and that's why I'm wondering if We're we're going to see the president come down there this week. I'm assuming at some point, Joe Biden's going to be coming down and how important do you think then the actual physical act of campaigning something that for the last few months Has Been Put on hiatus? It coming back is going to matter. Do you think? I. I'm surely speculating. If I. Guess if again, the candidates are trying to swing that lasts sliver of voters. HERB president trump to visit North Carolina and malign. A lot of people is probably not the best thing because the people who agree with him or already going to vote for him the people who are offended or put off by that that they're the ones who might walk away saying that he doesn't get now. Maybe Joe Biden doesn't get the person the vote from the person who doesn't vote for trump maybe that's just a a protest non-boat riding. Protest. no-show vote and for Joe Biden I think an appearance if again he doesn't get drawn into just or personal attack probably helps it. Again, for the few people who are undecided WanNa see him as close as possible right? Well, Rusty Jacobs Michael Bedser. This has been great. Thank you so much for taking this time with me. Appreciate it. Rusty Jacobs is a political reporter W. UNC. North. Carolina Public Radio Michael Blitzer is a professor of political science at Catava. College. And be sure to join US next Tuesday, September fifteenth for every vote counts Arizona. The event will be live streamed on our facebook page starting at six. PM Eastern. Many Credit Barack Obama's win in North Carolina in two thousand to strong turnout from African American voters. Exit polls that year showed African Americans making up almost a quarter of the electorate in North Carolina and they gave Obama five percent of the vote. But in two thousand, sixteen African Americans made up just twenty percent of the vote. And supported Clinton by a smaller eighty-one percent. To understand the role black voters will play in this key state and get a little context regarding what Democrats would need to do to win. We checked in with Kerry Haney a professor of political science and African and African American studies at Duke. University actually, think Democrats have a chance to win. Now in order to do so they need to have high black voter turnout. And they need to have in terms of two thousand and twelve where we saw record black turnout in North Carolina in election just over standing percent registered black voters turned out to vote for President Obama's re election. Now. In Two thousand sixteen we saw a decline in black voter turnout in North Carolina drop to get the thus far debate and Harris ticket has been using D. traditional means of mobilizing the black boat and ideas using churches and religious organizations. However, I expect in the coming weeks, we'll see a significant effort directed at historically black colleges and universities. North, Carolina has a large number of those and some of the Harris. Is. Proud alum of how university a historically black university and I suspect that connection we play well in. North Carolina is reached out to congresswoman Adams. She represents North Carolina's Twelfth Congressional district which includes Charlotte. I spoke with her about the role she'll play and turning out key voting blocs and how her constituents have fared throughout the pandemic. We've had businesses the close they are needing support not only for themselves and their families of also need a greatest support for schools and for our citizens city and county. So, people are weathering this storm, but it's been very difficult. It has been very difficult. We had a large number of of people of color to be infected by. Virus many of whom have died from the virus was we had issues from the outset in times of disparities already insists in in communities collar. Well I want to move to politics for a minute and I was. Reading a piece in the Charlotte Observer that. Said, you are quote expected to take a leading role in boosting turnout by urging early voting and you were taking a caravan of supporters to show up. Mecklenburg County Board of elections to turn in your absentee votes. Can you talk to us about what that means to be? Urging early vote turnout and how you're doing that and what you expect to be able to achieve. First of all, we expect to. achieve a large turn out here. Mecklenburg is I said before we have a large number of voters if you look at. What has happened with our early vote requests for absentee ballots. It is in my district we're looking at more than eighty thousand people who have requested. Absentee ballots and that suggests to me that people are very interested in this election. They believe that it is an election that will really determine the rest of their lives and I'm impressing upon people how important it is to vote early especially since we having issues with the mail service, can you talk to us a little bit about African American voters and their interest in this election and specifically their enthusiasm for this election what we've been hearing in different communities talking to different folks around the country is sort of a lack of enthusiasm for Biden but certainly an. Interest in seeing trump defeated I have not heard to any significant degree that African, Americans skeptical about by they're very excited about the possibilities that he brings to build back better So I think people are very excited about this election, and so I haven't heard that I would add is that we must get out to vote people are too afraid at this point not to vote an African Americans in particular because the president asked the question, what do you have to lose? We have a lot to lose and looking at these past four years with his president. People are just afraid of having more that for another four years We are very African American. Very excited. We also know that that they are this president is not truthful. I've been out here for a long time and I can tell you that from personal experience that the president has not been honest when he says that he's done more for Black America since president. Abraham Lincoln as a black woman who've been out here working I can say the biggest lies ever told I. Don't know if you watch much of the Republican convention. But if you did didn't one thing that we heard a lot about during that convention was support that the president was getting not just from African Americans but he featured a lot of African American men and the. Trump campaign does believe that they're going to be able to win over more African, American support in two thousand and twenty in part by winning. Doing better this year with African American, curious what you're seeing and hearing in North Carolina basketball. Well, I can tell you that. African American women. are going to carry this note. We. Have always done that and I think that the men are a little bit confused but you know you can always find a few I knew some of the WHO were. Who spoke at that convention? We've turned out for our Party. We've been the backbone of this party. We have been the ones who have sealed elections for many candidates who were maybe in a losing streak. So I, I, just believe the power of black women and the fact that we know what's at stake we're not to convince our men then when you look at it bill list. The president has not done anything even for the African American men and women. Now, we also know that he continues to Mayes I said before about what he's done community and I wanna just specifically mention the investment that he continues to say he's made in Hvac. See US he has not. He talks about the bills that we've passed in the Congress but those were bills that came through the Congress Future, act in specific that provide the kind of support for historically black colleges and universities which I have. A bipartisan caucus was not something that the president even pushed well congresswoman atoms I really appreciate you taking the time to speak with me please stay safe out there on the campaign trail. What thank you and I'm going to do that and. As. I said before you just watch as my Mama used to say you know Mark My word we want to turn the mother out in North Carolina. Adams represents North Carolina's Twelfth Congressional district. It's that time of year went summer fades to fall breath and under normal circumstances this would also be the time of year when candidates fluffed a battleground states political allies stump for them on the other side of the country. But nothing is as it was. So. As part of our continuing conversation about how the pandemic has changed how campaigns interact with voters. Checked. In with chase gates, he's a junior at North Carolina state and also the. Director for the North Carolina Gop the start of the pandemic we were doing all phone banking operations of virtually so that we could, you know prevent people from getting sick at the because when the start of the pandemic. We didn't have the personal protective equipment that was necessary to go out knock on doors. Now, that were able to get mask gig gloves were able to fall CDC recommendations and be able to door knocking canvas like we used to but you know with obvious new restrictions. So what kind of response do you get as you go to somebody's door? You know the I, think there were some expectations that you'd go to the front door and people would look at you like you're. Right. I would actually say it's very similar to what it was before a pre pandemic I mean people I? Think people see the after we go to to make them feel comfortable stepping six feet back wearing the mask wearing gloves it really shows through So no I I think people you know they'll give honest reaction. If if they liked the president, they're happy to see us if they don't like the president third low tech, the material usually read it over. So that's always a comforting thing. Yeah, and there's just a lot of enthusiasm surrounding the president this year I think one thing that's really got people's you know he's been here in North Carolina three times in the past three weeks. Sally we haven't seen Joe Biden in the last six months, Air North Carolina. So when you're talking to folks about trump, what what are the things that they cite specifically that there's The. Most excited about. I think they just love the way able to speak I mean the way he's able to speak directly voters kind of touch with their issues. The law and order aspect is so big in North Carolina I mean Santa's to say we've seen a lot of riding in the streets in the last couple of months and people want to see. Our country return back to normal where we're able to talk to each other conversation without you know fighting without being mad home Melissa people in law enforcement. So do you think that's what's changed? Let's say between I duNno earlier this spring and and now is the issue of some of the violence that we're seeing around the country. I it's just a mix of things I. Mean. There is a lot of turmoil going on with with the pandemic of course, and you know. With these protests recently I don't think I. Think Republicans. Especially I think we've been happy to see a peaceful protesting is just when things get out of place it's it starts to scare people really does I mean when they see I'll give you one example or local CVS that I used to buy weekly was burnt down. In Raleigh North Carolina. Obviously. North Carolina is in the news a lot and one of the reasons it's in the news it's one of the first states to. Mail out absentee ballots, and there's a lot of talk about the fact that so many absentee requests have already been submitted but many more of those requests are Democratic voters or at least people who are registered threats. So, are you concerned that Democrats may be putting more votes in the bank right now and that Republicans are sort of seating this. Kind of early vote to the Democratic Party counting too much on election day turnout. Right right now being sample in Chatham County where I'm from North Carolina I think it's doubled the absentee ballot requests doubled in just one county That's pretty astonishing but now I think we're making up ground. Has Been in the last few weeks we've. the trump campaign and a few other people have kind of asked people to request your ballot go ahead and do that I do think you'll have more Republicans voting at one site locations and going election night. I shouldn't have to do it. They like the the the feeling of voting on election day and seeing the results that night but I I will say in the past we've Republicans. Have One naps and team workouts North Carolina. So it's GonNa be interesting and I know there's still a lot of people North Carolina vote for the Republican candidate but are registered Democrats I think there's a I, know a burst probably about five in my family alone that do that same thing. So it's a, it's an interesting state and it's going to be interesting election. But I think we're making up ground we need to I think the the latest CNBC poll has president in the margin of error I mean that's in a way better than we were a couple of weeks ago. It seems as if nationally and in. North. Carolina. Republicans are doing much more hands on grassroots like you door to door canvassing type very few Democrats are doing this sort of operation they would be in the normal year. Kovin. Right. Do. You think that's a mistake I mean do you think that Democrats are missing an opportunity here and that they should be even doing maybe as you are doing wear masks put on gloves and? It does take a special. You know kind of person to be able to willing to walk around the hot sun with mass song gloves on, and you know doing all these different things to try to do that. But I think canvassing operations adds a special touch the campaigning I think touch from six feet away still but It is an interesting thing. I. Think the Democrats are making a mistake when it comes out. I think we had a voter goal and the Republicans of one million better contacts were at about eight hundred thousand now in the state of North Carolina, and that's just young Republicans. I mean, you've got field organizers for the trump campaign going on every day wearing the protective equipment going out knocking on doors I mean it's a it's an amazing thing. You've got more I. Think we're probably knocking on doors making more phone banking calls than we ever have as for any presidential candidate chase I want to thank you so much for taking the time. Thank you. Ma'am Take Care Chase gains is coalition director of the North Carolina Gop. And here's one more thing for me. I've talked to a lot of people recently who are nervous about casting absentee ballot. They worry the post office may not delivered on time that it could be lost in transit. For it could be stolen or alter. These are valid worries especially at a time when the president himself is casting so much fear and doubt. But of course of interviewing the people involved in the administration of the vote, actually feel a lot better. They know the challenges ahead of them and they're preparing for it sure. They'll make some mistakes. They're doing all they can to ensure a fair safe and transparent election. But. You have a rule in this too. If you WANNA vote by mail it, but don't wait until the last minute request her ballot as soon as possible get it in the mail and plenty of time before Election Day. Or drop it off in person, and here's the most important thing. Read the instructions if you have questions. Go to the website of your state election officials or give them a call. The way intimidation works is it gets you to doubt yourself in this process. Do not let that happen go out and vote. And remember, you can join me on Tuesday September fifteenth for every vote counts Arizona I'll be interviewing Arizona's secretary of state about the changes they're implementing to the election process in the wake of Kobe nineteen. You can rsvp at the greenspace dot org. We'll send you a link to the livestream or head to the takeaways facebook page and watch it live there on Tuesday September fifteenth at six PM Eastern. That's all for us today. Our senior producer is Amber Hall Patricia. Shakeup is our associate producer polly. Irungu is our digital editor David. Gable is our executive assistant. Jake Howard is our director and sound designer. Debbie daughtry is our board up. Vince Fairchild is our board OP engineer. Our executive producer is Lee Hill. Thanks so much for listening. This is politics with Amy Walter on the takeaway.
There may be too many Democratic presidential candidates for pollsters
"Welcome to the lead from meet the press. I'm Kerry, Dan. What's that old saying two's company three's a crowd and twenty is laughably difficult number of people to gather meaningful information about? Yeah. I know I'm kidding. At this point. We're running out of comparisons between the huge number of potential democratic candidates for twenty twenty and the real world. Let's just say there are now enough of them to put on a credible community theater. Production of grease the musical as long as you collapse. A couple of the baritone into one composite character, and oh dear God, I spent way too much time thinking about this. But this giant cast of candidates who let's be honest are mostly probably subpar singers. Anyway, right. They're creating giants problem for a group of people who are near and dear to my heart. That would be pollsters. Here's the thing as you may have heard me say over and over again horse race polls this early in an election cycle. Are not predictive. But the reason that we as a society just can't quit them is that it is useful to be able to separate candidates in a crowded field into different tiers of support. Do I care exactly how many percentage points, Joe Biden is ahead of John Delaney in the latest poll? No, do I care that at this moment, Joe Biden, appears better positioned to be the democratic nominee, John Delaney. I mean, sure, yes, I care. So polling gives us those kind of designations, and that's what Republicans tried to do when they were faced with a similarly crowded field back in twenty sixteen. They decided okay. Let's divide the field into varsity and junior varsity debates, and that turned out to be maybe not a great idea. Remember, those undercard debates with Rick Santorum, and Jim Gilmore actually don't answer that either possible answer is actually depressing, but those kids table. Debates looked at best a little silly. And at worst, like the Republican party and media organisations were picking winners and losers because they were sorting people into these two categories based on what seemed like an arbitrary cutoff. So Democrats are trying to make a couple of changes to see how their first Bates will be structured under the DNC's rules. A candidate can reach the debate stage by either reaching one percent support in three separate polls. Or by hitting a grassroots fundraising target the DNC will then divide those candidates randomly into two debates over two nights. But the problem for pollsters is so who do you include in your poll because if you're a candidate you can't get to one percent support if the pollsters don't acknowledge that you're running in the first place pollsters have to opt either limit the names in their presidential preference. Polls to only people who. Meet some other secondary criteria in which case the pollsters risk being accused of choosing favorites and not giving the underdog a chance or name everybody in the poll, which means that the list of contenders is so long that the people responding to the poll are almost guaranteed to get confused and forget their actual answer. Because they've just heard a whole bunch of names that mean absolutely nothing to them. You gotta draw the line somewhere. Right. So okay. Let's say the criteria to be included. In a poll is a presidential candidate has to have paid staff in a primary state brilliant. Right. Okay. Under that criteria spiritual teacher and author Marianne Williamson makes the cut and she did make the cut for two very well respected polls, recently the register and Monmouth university, and we how is that fair to this guy land of hope for all twenty twenty that guy is named heart Cunningham. He is also running for president. He's an entrepreneur, and he has spent well more than I. Quarter million dollars on a presidential run. That's almost entirely Facebook ads videos and a cool looking website, and it's all his own money. But it still technically more than a lot of other people have spent in two thousand eighteen so many questions. What's the cutoff who gets included who gets excluded? What is who in Castro's vocal range and how how these poor bombarded poll respondents pick the one that they want. That's a lead for us if you'd like to hear more of this free audio briefing, you can add meet the press the lead to your flash briefings on Amazon Alexa, enabled devices or download us as a free podcast.
Can Bloomberg "pull a Reagan"?
"Welcome to the lead from meet the press. I'm Melissa Holes Berg. Some surprises are great. Late in the game a buzzer author shot in overtime goal. or Max Scherzer pitching in the world series but if you're the chair of the Democratic National Committee Lee changes changes to your Democratic field aren't always welcomed. Tom Perez was asked back in June about the sheer amount of people running for president. I think the Phil we have twenty two twenty three people. It's clear to me that the next nominee is gonNA come from that group of people we're eighty three days is out from the Iowa Caucus and depending on who you talk to. The field is wide open or it's winnowing. To potential late entries. who had earlier sworn off? Presidential run aren't happy with candidates. They have left today former New York City mayor. Michael Bloomberg filed to appear on the Arkansas primary ballot. Even though Bloomberg hasn't officially announced a presidential run he's now set to be on two-state ballots and last night reports surfaced that former Massachusetts governor deval. Patrick is considering a run as well but the democratic electorate accurate doesn't seem to be calling out for moderate to stand in for Joe Biden. If he flails enter Michael Bloomberg or another governor from a blue state. Hello Patrick back in a new. USC La Times poll only four percent of undecided. Voters said there. Indecision was based on not liking their choices. That's not much wiggle room to make a lane for yourself. So what are they seeing that. Maybe voters aren't well. The electorate seems fine with their choices but they may not be energized about them if Iowa is any kind of bellwether a new Iowa poll from monmouth university can help us out. Only twenty eight percent of likely caucus goers are firmly decided which candidate Bill Caucus for that means many voters at least in one state eight are open to changing alliances. But that's not going to help someone like Michael Bloomberg who has already signaled heat forego early state contests. That's what it does mean. Is that the first state contest is going to be a toss up and late entry candidates and lower polling candidates. We'll be looking to see how split up the vote is. Pundits have been wrong before so late. Entry might be just the ticket after all Ronald Reagan didn't enter the nineteen eighty race until November thirteenth nineteen seventy nine and that worked out just fine for him. That's good for us if you'd like like to hear more of this free audio briefing. You can always download us on your favorite podcast APP
Democrats Praise Joe Biden For Being Only Candidate Able To Talk Down To Americans Like The Stupid, Slack-Jawed Dumdums They Really Are
"Oh He's the man. Democrats have chosen to take on. President trump come November. But just one was Joe Biden. The secret to winning the nomination here held the former. Vp was able to unite party support by treating voters like this stupid slack. Jaw Dumb dumbs. They know they are at later. Put breastmilk be turning the nation's Babies Toddlers and OPR investigation sinks. Its teeth thin and sucks out the truth from the onion public radio. I'm Lesley Brice said. This is the topical. We've got all the news. You need to prepare yourself for a long day of fucking around instead of working from home stay with us now that the Democratic primary is coming to an end political insiders are breaking down just how former vice president Joe Biden was able to win the nomination in such a handedly fashion and now a new poll from monmouth university suggests that the elder statesmen searched at the front of the pack so easily because he was the only candidate able to effectively talk down to the American people like the slack jawed dumb dumbs. They really are when he called that one voter a dog faced pony soldier for asking him a question. I was like yes. Joe Biden understands that the American people are all dumb donkeys. Don't WANNA candidate willing to engage with them on any ideological or philosophical level as what I knew. I was voting for him for more on why the Democratic primary shook out the way it did. We're joined now by OPR. Political correspondent. Dirk mullins Hello Dirk I Leslie. So what can you tell us about this new poll? Well it lays out a clear picture that Joe Biden was able to galvanize the Democratic Party by initially talking to them like they were imbeciles unworthy of sharing the same room with him take for instance an early encounter in Iowa when he called the voter. A quote Damn Liar during a town hall and then shortly thereafter. He flat out told voter to vote for someone else if they didn't like him and don't forget when he told that one auto workers in Detroit that he was full of Shit when the voter tried questioning him right. The poll found that the American people wanted to be a part of a political process that is consistently insulting to them and Joe Biden offered them that path once he developed that baseline understanding only then. We're voters more able to be opened his ideas which they found comfortingly vague forgettable. So basically what you're saying is people were drawn to the same old bullshit definitely. The poll made it clear that Joe Biden understood that the American voters mental capacity was low and basically dripping with inferiority. Yeah so he made sure to condescend to them and insult them both directly and indirectly at all times and this political playbook worked to not take supporter for example who. I met at a campaign rally in Michigan earlier this year. Listen I want a candidate who sees me and the millions of other Americans for the Goddamn Morons we are and that candid. It is Joe Biden. He knows that I don't want policies that are more than my little noodle brain can handle plus when he lowers his voice and does that little fake soft. Speak to pretend like he cares about bringing the country together. It speaks to the dense part of me that finds that bullshit genuine. And did you consider any other candidates now because when they talked it made me think too much but when Joe spoke zone out start thinking about what I'm GonNa eat for dinner interesting. I know I never really think about Joe Biden which makes my small piss brain feel better and more at ease. Exactly AMERICANS WANNA president. They don't have to think about. And the poll found. They could envision themselves never thinking about Biden on a weekly or even monthly basis whereas with trump. He's on your brain every fucking day and with some other Democratic candidate like a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth. Warren they would require you to pay too much attention to too many policy changes and requests for political participation. God you're right. People prefer to barely know who the president is absolutely and many other Biden supporters. I spoke with felt the same way. Have a listen. I knew I was voting for Biden after I went up to a town hall and asked him. Do you have a plan for tackling climate change and be right in the eye and reminded me that I'm an idiot. Who doesn't want to think about climate change or confront my- rolling. Then he called me a dumb asshole and told me to go lick my cousins. Dick like Joe in how about you. Man Yeah I liked the Biden. Doesn't insult my intelligence by pretending I'm smart and I'm actually seeking change. I'm dumb Horsh it and so we're all my family friends and neighbors. Joe Biden understands America. Please quit looking microphone. One scream so this leads me to ask. Dirk what happened with candidates like Bernie Sanders. Who flamed out fast and quick early in the primaries after a promising start. Couldn't he reach voters like the ones you talked to? The poll found that he never really connected with a wide swath of voters and of course in order to win a primary. You have to convince a large amount of morons to vote for you not just young lunatics lesson learned for sanders something to remember for next time. Thanks for the report. Dirk Sheriff. That's Dirk mullins back in a moment. I'll hello topical listeners. Sorry I was just shaving pubic hairs. Which reminds me I want to talk to you about. Manscaping the best in men's below the belt grooming now normally. I'd have my personal ball barber. Just do this for me but like many of you during these trying times. He's currently confined to his home. And my underpins is getting to be an absolute thicket but not to worry because manscaping new lawn mower. Three point zero is perfect for an amateur stylus like myself. Manscaping team of engineers voted eighteen months of the one life. They have on this planet to perfecting the greatest ball tremor ever created. It's cutting edge. Ceramic Blade is making manscaping accidents. A thing of the past with no nicks cuts or castrations. I've been deforesting my Amazon for about forty five minutes already with not a scrotum in sight. But that's okay because the lawnmower three point battery will last up to ninety minutes so you can take your time and right now you can get twenty percent off and free shipping with the code topical at Manscaping Dot Com. That's twenty percents off with free shipping at Man's gaped Dot Com and use code topical. All right gotta get back at it if this high top fade turns out as good as I think goodwill I might have to post it on instagram. Well it's almost time for me to head off to my favorite bridge to think about what it feel like to jump and finally feel free but before I do. Here's what else you need to know today. Despite the lapsing of many social distancing policies across the country the nation's doctors are still stressing the importance of not touching faces. Even if a blind lover wants to admire your beauty despite being the number one way for those with impaired vision to truly know the contours of a breathtaking chantrey doctors are reminding all citizens and forbidden lovers alike that it's also the number one way to contract corona virus. And that if you simply must know the beauty of your lover's face during the pandemic the most sanitary ways to have them describe it to you lustfully and passionately. In the town's highest belltower and zoom has announced. They'll be unveiling new cat channels. That will allow quarantined women to be arrest from home. Soom CEO. Eric you on announce the new feature today calling it. Just a small step toward providing some normalcy but he hopes that it can at least offer comforting sense of familiarity the women and their harassers alike during these trying times with more. Americans having to look for diy alternatives to their normal routines during shelter in place. John Hopkins is releasing a series of online videos today instructing people how to remove their own appendix which frankly is just in time for me. Because I've had this terrible pain in the lower left side of my abdomen. And thanks to Johns Hopkins. I don't have to wait for a doctor's appointment. I think your appendix is on your left side. Anyway it hurts like hell so I think it's about time I sliced myself open and see what the hell's going on there. Let you know how it goes and that'll do it for the topic today. I'm Lesley Brice. If you enjoyed today's episode topical you should shattered from your rooftop. Word of mouth really helps grow our audience. And there's no better way to do that then. Screaming my favorite Daily News. Podcast is the topic old. I don't care who knows it off the roof of your home at all hours of the day and night. Also you can subscribe to the topical wherever you get your podcast but frankly we don't even keep track so warm up those vocal chords in the CU. Hopefully all your neighbors right back here Monday. We'll see you then.
Trump campaign seeks conventions alternatives in states with Republican governors
"Welcome to live for meet the press. I'm Mark Murray. As we learned in the classic movie field of dreams. If you build something, they come. But what if they don't? Amid pandemic, that killed more than one hundred thousand Americans. And what if they do, but it makes people sick? Those the questions president trump and Republicans now face amid the news of the. GOP is canceled. Trump getting renominated in Charlotte North Carolina August. After a dispute over whether you can safely hold a convention with tens of thousands of delegates indoors during the coronavirus pandemic. My NBC colleagues Monica Alba Carol. Lee and Kristen welker report. The Republican officials are already on the ground in Orlando and Jacksonville Florida. In Nashville Tennessee. In Dallas Texas and in Phoenix Arizona. With the idea of trump, giving nominating speeches in multiple cities. A glorified rally is how one person familiar with the conversations. Put it to my colleagues. And, if you note all of those cities I named are in states with Republican governors while North. Carolina has a Democrat has governor. Now, it's possible if not likely that other official Republican convention business will still take place in Charlotte. But the trump's speech component. We'll be moved due to his desire for a well attended address. Of course this all comes amid polling shows an American public that's uneasy about intending big indoor events. According to a Monmouth University poll that was released this week. Forty seven percent of Americans, said that indoor arenas for sports and concerts should be closed for the time being. Another twenty six percent said that they could be open, but should have strict rules for attendance. Seventeen percent said that they should be open just with social distancing guidelines in place, and only ten percent said they should be open without any restrictions. Also this week. Ohio Republican Governor Mike Dewine. When asked the TV interview of his State would welcome big door convention rally from trump said it's such a gathering scared. The virus he said is still very much year. And while nothing been announced officially from the Democratic convention planners, the expectation is that Joe. Biden's convention has plenty of contingency plans in flexibility to be conducted in a far different manner than pass conventions. Do the corona virus. The big question here is whether you can make it safe from the indoor attendance to the hotel travel in restaurants. During the Republican Spew, Democratic Governor, Roy, Cooper of North Carolina. The Republican National Committee said they were proposing health screenings hand sanitizer in food service guidelines. But is that enough for nearly twenty thousand attendees? That was a sticking point for North Carolina and that still the central question for convention that still just a little more than two months away. Build it no come. Or will they stay away? That's good for us. Will be back on Monday. Be sure to download us your favorite podcast APP. Be well be safe and be healthy. Hey It's Chris Hayes. This podcast. Wise is happening. I'll be talking with Jesse Wegmann about his new book about the electoral. College and its flaws called. Let the people pick the president. Wouldn't you think that a sixty to forty split in the popular vote would lead to a six four allocation of electors so just to be clear, the constitution says nothing. It is a essentially a blank check to do whatever they want. Want in allocating their electors, the state lawmakers can give the electors out themselves. They don't have to hold a popular vote. You have no right to vote for president in the Constitution. There's no constitutional right for you or I to vote for president. There isn't even a constitutional right for us to vote for electors. That's this week on. Why is this happening? Surfer wise is happening wherever you're listening right now and subscribe.
Joe Biden In Free Fall
"Hey guys you've heard of the young turks podcast because you're listening to it right now but <hes> make sure that you subscribe to five star rating. If you like it thank you for listening. The young turks. I feel that this week is going to be enormously really active. Now you think like well. That's the worst prediction you've ever made way like stress russ levels. I feel it real active right now. No i mean news wise <hes> and i. I think that <hes> well isn't i mean. The trump era is in in every week. Insanity defined yes in fact we have stories about that <hes> in today's program but i feel something in there <hes> about this this week being particularly insane so let's see what happens buckle up everybody brace for impact. I wanna start off with some good news because there's quite a bit of good news today. Yeah oh no no. There's i mean you want shakeups. Okay we got great news and we will get trump's to sanity. There's a tornado of insanity that <hes> or hurricane of his sanity that we're going to get to <hes> <hes> but <hes> i also want to let you know that <hes> anna is going to be on cuomo tonight so that's a nine o'clock eastern and is going to be progressive versus moderates because of the story. We're about to tell you which is awesome anyway but make sure tree watches c._n._n. Nine o'clock tonight c. n. All right let's do it. A major poll indicates that both bernie sanders and elizabeth warren are now leading in the democratic primary now. This is a monmouth university. Pull the shows that they are beating joe biden who has been the front runner and they're beating him by one point. The monmouth university poll released monday shows sanders and worn deadlocked among democratic voters twenty percent with biden a point behind at nineteen eighteen percent. No other candidate cracks double digits that includes kamla harris who's in fourth place at eight percent or right. You guys ready. They do some gentlemen. We got him down goes right okay. I'm just kidding okay but the worst mistakes anyone can make to get too confident and i don't want people to convert with that said this is great news because there are giant changes in the poll results for these candidates so if you just go back a little bit ah the same polling organization <hes> found something very different just lasmo left so before we show you the massive changes that have come mm-hmm forward on a tell you to do afterwards one nate silver is decided. This pull doesn't count uh-huh hilarious. Larry is okay by the way if you don't know washington. You'd think like oh my god. That sounds so preposterous right. He's kidding or something right right. No no everybody in washington already been a couple of polls showing elizabeth warranty making huge strides bind falling back a lot. The other polls had sanders is rising a little bit or saying even now. This poll shows him rising as well. They literally don't believe any of those polls. I know people talking internally where where people in washington are like now. That obviously isn't true that because no one i know all my friends say it isn't true so americans are wrong okay so they actually this now. What does show you the massive movements and afterwards. I'm gonna tell you when they show you a fun told you clip. That's always hilarious right but i do want to say before we get too far removed from my down goes by joke largely joke but it's on its way. <hes> is that look in all seriousness. This poll is a statistical tie so you shouldn't say things that are so difficult ties only when it's to your advantage and a lot of the <hes> headlines do say tie now. Not all of them said taiwan bind was up by a point which happened recently but overall a lot of them did say tie it cetera and this poll does have a five point seven percent margin of error which is significant so it look look at the overall movements so don't be like nate silver not look at the overall movement and go see it. I don't see it. I don't see right his new excuses. Oh no it. It has to be after a major event otherwise the poll doesn't count yeah. I know we're gonna hold on sorry just finish up on that so but it does it definitely does count at the same time time it's of course not the end and be all it's one poll it is going along with the rest of the poll showing similar movements but it doesn't mean the they've taken the lead for good. We'll talk more about that in this. I agree with you. I think that the biggest takeaway from this poll is that the very same polling organization organization in late june found very different numbers for the progressive candidates so let me give you <hes> the past numbers again. This is the poll from june compared with the monmouth university poll in june sanders has ticked up six points and warren five points biden dropped thirteen points points from thirty two percent in june so he went from thirty two percent in nineteen percent and we're comparing apples apples. It's the same organization doing the polling and also <hes> biden is down fourteen points among white and non white voters. He's down would be everyone. It's i know it's really weird way of putting it makes sense because they say his strength is white voters with ed. Sometimes they'll turn around and say his strength is african american voters in places like south carolina and he's down was both across the board so there's nowhere to hide. He's he's lost in. Almost every category as anna will continue to explain exactly so he's down fourteen points among white and non non white voters. He's also down fourteen points among men thirteen points among women. He's down fifteen points among voters younger than fifty careers old which doesn't surprise me nine percent among voters fifty an older so across the board biden has seen a decrease in his poll numbers and it is fascinating to hear some of the moderates in the media tried to dismiss this type of polling and you know just going back to nate silver. I wanna read you his tweet in response to this because it was <hes> it was just fascinating. He says school graphic six the advanced skill in pulling analysis. Most people miss is that you should be much more inclined to believe there's been a significant shift in the polls after your big news or campaign events example debates and much less inclined to do so when there hasn't been so two things i wanna just mention off the bat first of vault there was a debate in june. I mean did he forget about that and secondly there were other things sprinkled throughout the last pull and today's poll and those things included biden saying all sorts of nonsensical crazy statements one of the latest ones that we haven't covered on the show yet he he gave a speech where he talked about the you know what would it have been like if obama had been assassinated like he has these weird moments that i think are really starting starting to hurt him. Politically i mean look. I'm worried about by and i don't mean that in like a fake kind of way like i'm concerned about him. Let's now you know we'll talk about how his mental state and bury him no. I'm worried about him as a person i if he was the candidate it'd be massively word for democratic party. He i mean look. He was just in new hampshire and he said you know what a beautiful state. Vermont is now. If that was the only slip up and say oh that's no big deal at all right and i always remember the <hes> in the theorists. Let's put them that way that thought that hillary clinton had an aneurysm and had brain damage and it was a lot of people on the right wing but also zone works on the left wing okay and that was never true and there was never any evidence of that and faced with overwhelming evidence that her mental state is fine now they still won't give because people lose their minds when it comes to politics and bias and cetera so with biden if it was just one data point okay but now guys he's done it over over and over again <hes> with so called gaffes and the poor kids can be like white kids and you you've heard at least half a dozen significant ones but on the vermont new hampshire one one. You're campaigning in new hampshire. New hampshire is one of the first two states confusing it with remind when you're that seasoned a politician and that is really weird and so he these so i i give you that in the context of what ana just said which is no neat all this has happened since the last night has been two debates and the polls move after the second debate clearly in favour warner sanders and more importantly against biden and then there was one poll that showed no biden had regained the lead and of course all the mainstream media is on biden side so they propaganda on his behalf twenty four seven after the debates for several weeks but then he kept making these huge gaps that are making big news so there's plenty of reasons to believe this poll and two others that are similar a to it are real but when anyone in this including nate silver sees numbers they don't like they just wish them away. He did the same thing with donald trump right about this time when i was saying look all the numbers are super real. He's going to win the republican nomination. People like nate silver say i was crazy. That's never going to happen. No one i know oh likes donald trump that doesn't mean a god damn thing and the reason i get more mad at nate silver is because his job is supposed to be numbers if he was a normal jackass pundit on television. I'd be like it's tuesday. That's all the american people say that millionaires should keep their tax cuts. That's i heard one night millionaire friends right. That's almost also but they can't even see number street. Yeah i mean look. I'm not really surprised. I think that his commentary his hostility toward progressive candidates is is well well documented but i do want to get back to some of the other <hes> findings of this poll and then i want to kind of give you my theory and jenkin brag about his predictions. Yeah i the waiting for the bus so here's some more findings and it's just fascinating biden also slipped eighteen points among democratic voters who describe themselves as moderate or conservative david and nine points among self identified liberals okay. Let's pause for a second self identified moderates. Stop supporting morning bhai according to the response from this poll and just quickly. I wanna give you my theory. Look biden. Yes there have been a number of gaffes. He's also been m._i._a. Eh when it comes to in my opinion important campaign stops rallies and and and you know in terms of strategizing and garnering more support port solidifying more support in the democratic base. He's been <hes> you know m._i._a. He's kind of ripping a page out of hillary clinton's playbook which i think is a giant mistake and and then you have the progressive candidates what they've been doing. They've been they've been making it rained with policy proposals right and their robust their bold old bernie sanders with his green new deal proposal actual legislation that came out last week and it was wonderful right and so they're coming out strong. They're hitting mitch. Mcconnell word hurts. You know we have a story in the rundown today where <hes> bernie sanders went to kentucky and he called out mitch mcconnell for completely neglecting struggling coal workers these are these are candidates who actually care about the issues and they're not afraid to propose a bold solutions to very real issues. Americans are facing today. I think when you combine all these different elements that is reflected in this poll the response from democratic voters is reflected in this point and so on clarify one thing them break <hes> so this poll was conducted between august sixteenth and twentieth so they hadn't seen the green new deal proposal yet but they're gonna i'd say the but he he had a criminal justice reform proposal that was very bold <hes> but it's one of many pattern i elizabeth warren had come out with a lot of proposals bernie now has doubled down in his number of proposals and so now if you're someone who's progressive you see those or just any democratic votes based on the numbers you will look they're coming up with interesting ideas and look like they're fighting for me and these are things that i agree with if you're in the establishment and i have to clarify this because both sides don't understand each other at all because living different bubbles and the establishment they look at those proposals by especially by bernie sanders and go. Oh no one would care about those. Those those are not big events because obviously those are unrealistic. Everyone in washington says so obviously we're not gonna do those that would hurt oil companies etc so and and they silver doesn't have to think about oil companies he just as part of the group thing and everyone in that toxic stew things. There's there's no way that the american people would be interested in progressive ideas nate look at the polling on every single issue. I mean i i've literally golf new dozens of issues that have been polled. The american people are sixty percent to eighty percent in favor of progressive issues the the number that keeps he's popping up in like half the polls six percent sixty six percent. That's two thirds of the country okay on massively progressive values in issues et cetera her but when worn is senators defend those everyone in the salvadoran goes. That's not a big deal. They can't be real now. Finally worn is broken through a little bit and they get oh she has a plan for that and so they've given some positive coverage but remember bernie still in the race okay so that finally to what i told you guys recently when the last set of post came out showing showing that warren was closing on biden big time and barton biden was fading. Here's what i said. The biden fade has begun gun so now we got a poll out of iowa. I believe that's fairly relevant state. It's starting line change balls and in uh uh new we've got leader. Elizabeth warren in fact joe biden's now tied with bernie sanders so depending on how you want to frame it these time for second time for third and fading and fading wore now has an eleven point lead in iowa against biden now. Here's what the usa okay. That's just one poll and you could talk about. Hey you know what is the credibility of that poet cetera but guys it doesn't really matter. Does anyone think that joe biden biden. After losing the lead is going to retake the lead. No-one knows politics things that once the fade begins its goodnight corrine and here we are ninety nine so maybe nate in joe scarborough and everybody else in washington thinks no binds it amazing using politician and he'll he'll mount a comeback. I'm here to tell you and i've been proven right about a thousand times over that. He will not make a comeback. He has no ability to make a political comeback wants to fade begins. Its terminal and it has already begun so i told you that ten days ago when the polling it showed what we thought it was gonna show based on what we know about politics and the reason why we do predictions yes. It's fun. Yes i get a big head over it but really really the main reason is so you know that we're not full of it. We're not monday morning. Quarterbacking it. We told you ahead of time and part of the reason we do that is because everyone everyone else in media says we're wrong so i say okay great. Why don't we test all tell you at a time what's going to happen. They can tell you at a time and let's see who's right and time. I am in time again. We're shown to be right on the show. They give us credit after we're pro yeah every time they've never once said oh yeah they were right. We were wrong. Among the most important part of that is we were wrong. Who cares about us being right. The phenomenon is what's important and so even though we told them hillary clinton is very defeatable double i saw lose weight is two thousand eight no no she can't be beat. No way trump has no chance no chance and okay. That's the past. Have you learned anything. No haven't learned anything all of washington and right now. They're like sanders says no jazz a winning. I don't know maybe come on really progressive. I mean none of our ideas years. We're gonna get implemented. Maybe it'll be cute that she'll win but we're not going to do any of those goddamn things and they really can't see that they're buys so one last one for you guys today that look. I think there's an excellent chance that biden doesn't even make it the iowa he's not even in the race when the voting begins because if this fade continues we're in august. He's gasping for air. He ain't gonna make it to january so you think he's gonna wanna get humiliated. Come in third fifth seventh. No there's an excellent chance he leaves the race before we have a single vote. Now on the other end. Donald trump is a certified lunatic and he he keeps saying things that are crazier and crazier every single day so i still believe i've said this from day. One and i still believe today. There's also very good chance donald. Donald trump doesn't make the election so the mainstream media for the last six months nine months have been talking biden versus trump. It might be neither i would argue. It's actually fairly likely to be neither so. Let's see what happens next year. <hes> i think i think trump is definitely definitely definitely going to remain in the race. I think you're wrong on that but we've taken a bet and we'll see how that goes by lose. I hope hope i lose that bet but we'll being quadrupling quadruple it. Let's do it. Let's do it. Momma needs a new bathroom. Okay i'm gonna do it. I'm going to do life she. No one goes me better than anna on these okay dollars jank. No no no. It's it's two hundred dollars or nothing because one hundred dollars because it didn't happen by the midterms okay then <hes> so went to two hundred dollars or nothing so that's double or nothing so we go to four hundred dollars or i win two hundred dollars. You see what i'm saying because that way. I see what you're saying. Okay now all of a sudden. She's thinking about no. I'm not i. I wanna win eight hundred dollars. There's a trade war so inflation with materials okay okay. I hear you all right so four hundred <hes> you win. Two hundred i win. If trump is not in the race right like does not finish his term correct act does not finish this. Let's deal deal all right here. We go again. I wait till you see the rest of the show. I don't know what happened there. Okay wait till you see the end of the show because there's a lot of news out leading omega but okay all right god bless. Let's go forward all right. We gotta take a break when we come back. We have bernie sanders man. This is one of my favorite stories. He's showing up to kentucky. He is calling out mitch mcconnell smacking smacking him in the face politically news. I love it not big news story though no not a big deal okay we'll do monsanto corporation continues and used to sell it urbicide called roundup but you should know that that herbicides a potential killer recent studies have linked roundup to significant increases in non hodgkin's lymphoma. That's it's a cancer that can be devastating to you and the people you love while roundup continues to cause cancer. Monsanto continues to make huge profits from the sale of roundup. They will not take it off the market. If you or a loved one are exposed to round up at work or home and then developed non-hodgkin's lymphoma. You may be entitled to financial compensation and it's important. I'm for you to take action now and hold monsanto accountable back in a church jenkin anna you guys as a portion of the show we do together so tracy writes in an-and cuomo. Get girl thank you shall. I just thought word that i'll be on with ana navarro. She'll be representing the moderates in the discussion fitting way okay. That's not pervy. Yeah that's right. If you want to vote for a republican us for the people anna navarro sports <hes> vote for democrats put the people land is supports <hes> so that's tonight at nine o'clock on c._n._n. Domus miss that ought to be fun brings it okay tommy too strong. Rates in progressives are pulling ahead versus. Everybody there ought to be a t-shirt. Why line glad you mentioned that tommy because there is a t shirt of course he knows that a t._y. T. dot com. I'm sorry shop t._y. T. dot com and a- actually it fits in perfectly got twenty percent off today. Presume because of <hes> <hes> back to school or something it's one day only so you you have to panic and <hes> you got these snapback now <hes> so they're pretty cool and bad ass and all that stuff so i'll go forward <hes> so twenty percent office shop t._y._p. Dot com tommy seriously. Thank you for mentioning that. I ever like when i wear my aggressors. Everybody shirt like yes okay anyway <hes> k._t. Nicole eighty seven says today was my first. Day of college had to share with my family. Well <hes> thank you and thank you for watching with us. Kebich on twitter says actor. Mrs is biden spoke. I think that the broke the camel's back she just couldn't sell her own husband with any authority poll taken actually before that so upcoming polls might be worse for by the vermont gaffe after the poll this the jill bye nafta the poll bernie's green new deal proposal after the impulse. Oh upcoming polls could conceivably be significantly better for the progressives are in the last one is on youtube super chat cardinal sin says impeach now democrats will look good for a change it would be wonderful if they fought all right and then i just want to remind you all on friday our power panel handle will be available to our members always <hes> what we're doing something a little different <hes>. If you'd like to watch <hes> you can watch and you're not a member you can watch through zumo jus- go to zumo dot com slash t._y. T. and you can experience the main show on that platform and if you're interested in becoming a member it's very easy to do so so just go to t y t dot com slash join all right. Let's do some more news here. In mcdonald auto stop walking legislation from public. That's bernie sanders calling out senate majority leader leader mitch mcconnell who has blocked votes that would increase the federal minimum wage to fifteen dollars an hour sanders also calling him out for his unwillingness is to help struggling coal workers in the state of kentucky <hes> many of whom are struggling with finding work and more importantly getting paid what they deserved for the work that they've already done here sanders calling him out carl. You got stuck legislation what we live in a democracy. The senate is entitled the baby back your it looks to debate the issues. I love watching senator. Senator sanders attack like this and i think it's important for him to do it. Because fighting really does get people to discuss what the reality is among politicians and and how someone like mitch mcconnell doesn't care about anyone doesn't care about doing the right thing and is actually incredibly undemocratic because he does block votes on the senate floor and the federal minimum wage is just the latest example of that so i loved it. <hes> sanders is calling him out. So what winds up happening is. It attracts media attention attention when there is a fight between personalities because the media is adverse to covering issues but when there's a catfight ooh okay we can freeman framing as you know this person versus that person and and so and we can say hey we're neutral to it but we're just giving you the fight and they love the fights right so then once you have the fight you're on in your moral high ground because you're saying the reality mitch mcconnell <hes>. You got coal miners in kentucky. You've got ripped off. Their last paycheck didn't even get paid to them. They've been out there for three weeks blocking this <hes> <hes> railroad right. Are you gonna fight for them. You're there senator oh you've done anything for them. Why because you're actually represent corporate interests that are against them so just own up to it. There's a fight any with a._t. And t. e. kentucky which side are you on as always mcconnell's on the side of the billionaires and corporations and then on the fifteen dollars minimum wage like he if you let them get away with it ah he'll bury it and the media will never talk about it again. We'll never have that vote but if you but i notice a revolutionary thought for other democrats in the country but it turns out you could actually fight back you actually talk and call him a coward and say hey you know what he's not allowing vote and what does mcconnell going to do. He's going to say well. No fifteen minimum wage is bad higher. Wages for people in kentucky is bad because they would hurt my corporate donors. He'll couch it in terms of like oh could hurt the economy which would eventually hurt you but i really really don't want you to have higher wages right awesome. Thank you very much. That's why you start that fight. That's why we want aggressive progressives exactly. I love that you just said that. Because <hes> you know a recent poll actually police today from monuments shows that <hes> both bernie sanders and elizabeth warren are tied at twenty percent in that poll and they're above biden at nineteen percent. I bring that up because this is the way democrats rats win they differentiate themselves as as fighters and individuals who care about the average american worker and they juxtaposed their policy proposals close to that of republicans whereas moderate democrats think oh let me just try to be a lighter version of the republican that i'm fighting against well. People aren't going to vote for you because they already have the republican. They're not looking for republican light. They're looking for someone who might be willing to actually fight for them and bernie sanders shows over and over again again. He's willing to do that now. Following the rally <hes> he put out a series of tweets that i want to share with you. He says over five hundred thousand workers in kentucky make less than fifteen dollars an our senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. Why don't they deserve an average raise of four thousand three hundred dollars. A year stopped blocking legislation to raise the current starvation minimum wage to a living wage of fifteen dollars an hour by the way real quick. I i do want to give rashida to leave a lot of credit because she's saying yeah yeah fifty dollars an hour. It's a good start. There's no reason why workers should get paid at least twenty dollars an hour so she's a fighter and i love it mitch. You don't wanna vote on fifteen. We can make it twenty right. We had that conversation <hes> and four thousand three hundred dollars extra for five hundred thousand people living in kentucky that ain't joke and what mitch mcconnell do he'll hide behind. Small businesses ain't got nothing to do with it. It's the giant business that are funny but okay then. Let's take one more issue here. So coal miners with black lung disease went up to washington and saying hey is gonna pay for our healthcare. Were literally dying because you told us to go work in the coal mines and you have our back now. Mitch mcconnell actually doesn't care about co workers at all not even one percent so he's like no. I'm not going to take care of you it. All you're going to sit there and die while i take money from the corporations that made that happen so let's put it out there. Let's emphasize it it because they pretend that they care about the coal companies because they ultimately care about the co workers but now it's been proven to be ally why you got black lung disease. Mitch mcconnell doesn't give a damn about you. You wanna get higher wages. Mitch mcconnell is going to block it and ended. Stop it because he doesn't care about the cold workers. I he cares about the coal companies that fund his campaign. He is the heart of darkness on corruption so it's a way way past time that somebody started fighting back and if it takes birdie santa's going down to kentucky to kick his ass how take it and and this is what energizes progressives and lisa electoral victories. That's the only way you're gonna beat mcconnell in kentucky. You're not gonna do it by being soft absolutely all right <hes> switching gears to some other news today over the weekend. The new york times published a lengthy piece about conservative operatives who are looking to find signed off position research on journalists who publish negative stories about donald trump and the reason why they're doing this is to discredit them and also also intimidate them to prevent future negative stories on trump. Now i think trump does a pretty decent job of putting himself out there in a negative light as it is but let let me give you the details on what the times found operatives have closely examined more than a decade's worth of public posts and statements by journalists only a fraction of what the network claims to have uncovered has been made public with more to be disclosed as the two thousand election heats up now they targeted to individuals already one of uh-huh already been fired. It was a twenty five year old photo journalist at c._n._n. Who had put out <hes> some questionable tweets when he was about fifteen sixteen years old so oh good job way to get him the photo journalist by the way didn't publish any negative stories on donald trump in fact this loose network of conservatives are targeting getting anyone who works at any news organization that has ever published anything negative on donald trump. The research is said to extend to members of journalists families families who are active in politics as well as liberal activists and other political opponents of the president in its targeting not only high profile journalists who challenge college the administration but also anyone who works for any news organization that members of the network c._s. hostile to trump no matter how tangent had how ten gentle changed gentle oh okay gentle tangential okay sorry about that no matter how tinged the job may be to cover to the coverage in his presidency and it is being used explicitly as retribution for coverage so there are more details but this is a purposely done to intimidate journalists journalists from doing their jobs period yeah so first of all the stories are negative because they quote donald trump and so it's not like it's op-eds attacking donald trump <hes> although i'm sure some of those organizations certainly have had but no they're like don't put donald trump because otherwise people realize he's an idiot so so any story they perceived to be negative about trump is usually just giving you what trump said or did which is borders on insanity and oftentimes verve crosses that border so <hes> and this isn't they always paint this as unusual and i get it for president. It's unusual but actually the right wing has been. I'm doing this for a long time. <hes> roger ailes at fox news. He had a binder on <hes> executives and hosts on other channels that were competitive with fox news when when i was a host on m._s._n._b._c. the p._r. Department told me about that and said be careful <hes> because i had done an article attacking fox news and they said you shouldn't do that and i said what are you were at m._s._n._b._c. Were competing with fox news there like they'll have a folder on you and attack you personally so the the republicans have been the bad bad guys on this forever. Ironically is the new york times washington post c._n._n. That won't tell you that they'll say well. Both sides do it what both sides were civil wings folders and attacks against people's families and so ironically these organizations do political correctness with false equivalences but but it's never good enough for the right wing. They attacked them anyway. The only upside to the story is that finally since it has affected the powerful they're paying attention. Listen because this has been happening online to folks who are the tip of the spear so they've attacked the young turks these same set of guys the same right wing wing the same tactics have attacked. The young turks sam cedar. <hes> i mean you name. A progressive hosts online. We've already gotten this. <hes> ten times is over a hundred times over because they know we influence people and especially the younger generation way more than anybody else does so they attack us first but when we're attacked the rest of the sabbath muster meteors like oh well perhaps perhaps not right both sides to it false equivalency now now. We'll publish the same tax. I mean there's no without ever noting hey. These are hatchet jobs. These are coming from a illegitimate source and hey. Maybe i should be careful about james. James o'keefe video maybe might have ended it like he did twelve other times etcetera but now that it touches them all of a sudden. You're like whoa whoa whoa what's going <music> on right yeah. I know this the same. We've been telling you for at least five years. Well okay so there are two things. I wanna point out first off. The right wing is unfortunately silently a well oiled machine starting with the executive branch and the trump administration going down the pipeline to the most questionable publications including breitbart. So what are the examples at the time times noted was when there was a piece published on stephanie grisham right so she is <hes> in the communications team four donald trump's. She's worked for melania trump for a long time. Apparently the times put out an article that did not shine a positive light on her work history and so the central player in this loose collective of conservatives is a man by the name of arthur schwartz and he is don jr. in your good friend and so he spends all his time digging up all this op research including a social media post dating back a decade ago and then he'll feed it he'll tweeted needed of course and then he'll feed it to publications <hes> like breitbart so let's go to that graphic the new york times published a profile on white house press secretary stephanie grisham which which included unflattering details about her employment history then in retaliation breitbart news published an article that documented antisemitic and racist tweets written a decade ago by <hes> tom right pure santi who was in college at the time and has since become an editor at the times political desk right so then head that story by breitbart gets re tweeted by members of trump's administration and his friends and then it starts building momentum and then what does the times times do they freak out. They started investigating. They haven't fired him yet but were his tweets or his social. Media posts put in context next. Are you automatically going to concede to the right wing and the hatchet job that they're doing like my point. Is they have a well oiled machine. They have a strategy and it's important four media to not fall for their games right not fall for their pressure and they do time and time again c._n._n. Fired a twenty eighty five year old photo journalists over a story that he didn't even publish himself. It's disgusting what they're telling his tweets when he was fifteen years old so let me get this right. Republicans say if you attempted rape in high school as cavanaugh was charged with it's totally irrelevant but if you tweeted the wrong thing in high school you should be fired immediately. Really that's your standard. You don't believe that you're just playing games and you're playing. I get your plan political games. At least we understand it for the new york. Times times is like genuinely shocked. Chagrin like turns out. There might be some bad actors on that side sherlock. I'm glad you've finally figured it out and glad you guys journalists journalists but they are genuinely like oh my god bad actors. No everybody has good in ten in both sides do it anyway. Look when when you look at the things that the other guy <hes> that they targeted when after he said look i was joking around with my friends and my you know i don't know what the racial racial and religious composition of his friends are and he probably doesn't wanna get them in trouble and in cetera but you gotta look at that context you can't just let's be like some wrong word was said if he actually meant it. That's a different story and how old was he. Was he a journalist. At the time. Those are all relevant but if you look back and go hey he might have said something joking to a jewish friend that was antifa that sounded anti semitic removed from that context and then you fire him over that because the right wing wants you to well then and you're an idiot okay and you're weak and and those fascist we'll steamroll you while you're playing patty cakes. It looks like look. Don't get me wrong. This is a positive development because it looks like for the first time the mainstream media's going. Oh oh this is kind of unfair. I you see what they're doing to. Which of course i replied of course you're just. There'd be no one to everybody but you until now so now that it touches you. You're like okay. Oh wow maybe i should look into this a little bit more. Of course you should and last thing on this guy's look. There's different levels of terrorism of the right wing does whenever there's something they don't agree with they issued death threats non stop. I don't mean shorts or trump. Etc trump threatens violence wants encourages violence regularly know they just release it too. They're the crazy people that follow them and it's called sto casting terrorism and so part of that is target your family. Now you know it might not be death threats. It might be different tricks. I don't want to get all the tricks okay but we've seen them all they target <hes> where you work may target <hes> you personally then they target you physically and then they send the death threats and so you have no idea the pressure sure that builds so random people working at those organizations. Maybe you're you know you're an accountant at the new york times and now you realize oh oh and this has been happening for a long time. Wait am i going to keep working at the new york times when they're threatening everybody in the building and they have a a great a number of madman on their side that actually have sent pipebombs that actually have done mass shootings etc and they keep encouraging them encouraging them and you know what it does after for a while it works and it gets count to be nervous and leave the new york times and then more and then more and then the terrorists win and so this is how the right wing is trying to terrorize is assault and it's a tough situation be put in the correct response is to offer all of us the stand up together and end the false equivalency and the out of context character assassinations and say. We're not gonna listen to you. I don't care what you found from a fifteen year old and what he said a decade decade or two decades ago. You're a hatchet man and you're you're a joke and we're gonna do real news but that requires courage so they've got to have the courage to stand up and say yes one side definitely does it more and we're going to stop feeding the trolls and we're gonna end this. It's nonsense. When we come back from the break. We are going to talk about the g. Seven summit and as you can imagine a donald trump just displayed his lunacy for the entire world to tick tick tick. We hope you're enjoying this free clip from the young turks. If you wanna get the whole show and more exclusive content while supporting independent media become a member of dot com slash joined today in the meantime enjoy this free second the back and young turks. Oh i forgot the the tweets okay so we got some very tweets for you guys and by the way a a little bit later in the program going to now something really exciting okay. The russells progressive says i love sanders. He's like the the only boomer politician gets millennials <hes>. I can only hope i have the same kickin my step when i'm his age look i'm forty nine. I think the same thing when i went around with them in california back in two thousand sixteen i was like how is this dude outstanding straight after all of this campaigning and that was just on the road with him one day he saw there are hundreds of days in a row amazing stuff anyway nasty habits. If the minimum wage had kept up with inflation it would be twenty two dollars a sixty five cents per hour right now exactly right and so they i mean we all got <music>. Screwed does wealth redistribution right there to the top. <hes> michael nathan on twitter says <hes> jank has never wanna bet against anna the big. I will never learn anna for the win michael. I love you dude. Okay yeah we agree to disagree but <hes> here's what i have to say to you. As a counter michael tick tick tick tick tick the last one last one <hes> seth jones says what do we think the odds are. The trump administration will be prosecuted after next administration comes in well normally the odds. Would it'd be interesting if it's a democratic administration but i'm on a war path. I mean you'll see it in the next story. We're doing but the guys the hundred percent criminal and if i've got anything to do with it and likely won't if i do <hes> i'm never gonna let it go. He has ties with the russians and god damn it will investigate it already well. We're gonna talk about that a little bit in the next stories. Let's get to it all right. Donald trump has been in france for the g. He's seven summit and as you can imagine he has been as cantankerous as you could expect him to be among our allies and what are the issues that he brought up was the fact that russia's no longer part of this annual event now russia used to be part of this annual event until the annexation of crimea me a happened in ukraine trump argued strenuously that vladimir putin should be invited or reinvited back five years after russia was rejected from then g. eight for its annexation of crimea now he makes the argument in the next clip. Let's take a quick look. A lot of people are smart a lot of people because they having russia which is a power having them inside. The room is better than having them outside the room. If i wanted to go strictly by politics it takes probably poll that and possibly i'd say oh gee i don't want i don't want russia and but i really think it's good for security of the world is good for economics. Remember their building a pipeline in europe going right up to germany and i said to allah who i had a great relationship but i said you know you pay russia billions of dollars and then we defend you from russia and i say how does that work okay so he wants. Let's put them back in <hes> the g seven for no apparent reason now. No one has his business ties. Russia muller did not do that at all at all. He thought it was outside of what he was asked to look into. He was asked to look into action so he looked only at the election. This giant business sizes whereas you just looming. They're both of donald. Trump's sons have said we got all our money from the russians for the golf courses so does he owe them. Something nope nope nope no idiot. Democrat wants to look into it there. So you know a plane pancakes with them. They won't even take take new york state taxes which newark has offered richard neal and richard neal the head of the ways and means committee in the house won't take it pelosi doesn't want it so nobody is investigating him. It's outrageous now the right way i get i. I don't even want to bother talking about bringing russia's awesome. The two strategic is brilliant. Okay whatever so now let's address the portion of the left wing <hes> that i disagree with to say at least really you're gonna make an argument that he wants to bring russia back into the g seven because he really cares about geo political circumstances in the world world and thinks that it will lead to more international stability of russia's in you really wanna die on that hill. That trump is doing this based on principles that he has about geopolitics and then he you just heard him say he knows is the popular but he wants to do it. Any when's the last time donald trump did something that didn't benefitted personally that would hurt him politically yeah. That's a great point. I look i don't know if this type of behavior would hurt him politically with his base but i will say look there are two separate issues first off what motivates trump. Why is it that he decided to bring russia up. I do not buy for a second second that he cares about geopolitical politics. I don't believe for a second he has any strategy in mind however if you just take trump and his ties to russia completely clearly out of it and think about it in a non trump context. I do think that russia should have a seat at the table. You don't know i think it's important to have them be part on this not to listen not to negotiate with putin and concede to what he wants but i do think that that is a it is a significant power in geopolitical politics and i think it's important to apply pressure both diplomatically and through through other means like sacred okay so tell me why are you so first of all on the substance. I'm not worthy mainstream democrats who are like oh russia's the boogeyman and we should start conflicts and them doing the election. Interfering is tantamount award. That's crazy talk okay. I want stability with russia. I don't want any <hes> conflict. I don't wanna starting new wars etc <hes> but that that doesn't mean they have to be in the g. Seven so they annexed crimea. They still have troops in eastern parts of ukraine. If you allow them back in the seventy rewards it rewards they're aggressive. You've military tactics which would cause them to potentially do more aggressive military tactics in other countries that actually destabilize the it doesn't mean they're not in the united nations doesn't mean you should never work with them. It is but we we don't have to let them into nato and we don't let them into g seven. They were ejected from g eighty eight for very good reason and this is not a conservative position. Bring the russians back in even boris johnson from the u._k. Is like no no no no no. We don't want the russians pretty amazing yeah so almost no backs trump on this. He's all alone because there is no principled position. There is no conservative -servative position. There's certainly no progressive position that supports it all. There is is trump going blood. What do you need what you need so look. We could argue about this until till the cows come home and i know i'm never gonna convince that portion of the left wing that is i think i lost my mind on it fine. Whatever i think you've lost your mind. Completely orderly you become so biased on that issue that you're not open to new facts so when trump ally blue comes and goes oh jeez. I need it right now. Even though it's going to hurt me politically yeah but that's okay because i care about a world <hes> civility and less complex and i really care about this because of the pipeline which got criticized war in germany really really really don't believe that old. I look and i'll even address look. I'm not questioning your intelligence because i know a lot of guys on that side of really smart but good. You don't believe that you know you don't believe that saying that is ridiculous. Okay wait. There's one other thing that i wanna pose. I want to get your thoughts on it because i think this is also a possibility so i agree with you again. I just want to repeat that. Trump doesn't care air about shoo political politics. I'd be shocked if you ever thought about it for a single second. However what we do know is that trump is motivated by his money <music> money and also russia money and there's one other thing that trump is motivated by and that's flattery. He likes to be around individuals who are complimentary complimentary towards him and he has done such a great job at demonizing our long standing allies members of the g. seven that maybe there's a possibility he he wants vladimir putin to be part of these meetings again these annual meetings because he knows that putin is going to tell him all the lovely fluffy things that he wants to hear about even vets that's not true because if you've noticed putting actually has barely said anything about trump he any unlike kim jong hoon and other leaders that have gone around kissing trump's ask at least verbally while doing other things in the background putin hasn't done that. It's not like putting in the press conferences goes. Oh i believe u._s. Intelligence rather than russian intelligence. I think donald trump's our great leader. His city any of that he just says comes to the conference goes trump. He'll and trump goes. Yes i believe the russians instead sort of my own government yesterday a lot of mir's a wonderful strong leader. You need strength. He's very strong right so re comes in and bows but i've never seen putin bow. I've i've never seen him. Give like big communists donald trump look. I think he's been very friendly with donald trump publicly when they have met and when they've done unlike joint press conferences but one other thing is remember. They've had a number of private meetings now. Of course why do they want those meetings private without any u._s. Officials does part of it without any transcript or any record of those meetings they could be talking about some of their shady deals or whatever look i. I just think that trump has this affinity toward dictatorial regimes. I think that he loves authoritarians. I think that he sees authoritarian rian. He feels this connection. There's like a love connection happened with detaille. It's happened with bolsonaro in brazil. I'm just i'm giving you. I know i get it. I'm giving all the possibilities and don't get me wrong. I don't deny that there are some business deals going on behind the scenes. That should be investigated did with that said i. I do think that if you do care about geopolitical issues applying pressure through economic means and sanctions is great. I would lean in that direction but i want russia to be part of the conversation and apply pressure that way as well. That's where i'm coming yeah. Okay yes so look <hes> he. There's dictators. He doesn't like i agree with you. He likes authoritarian dictators that are on his side but he doesn't seem to like the iranian leaders. He doesn't seem like like maduro so he's pretty selective about the dictators that he likes right him. You know well you could argue about whether my doors dictator and certainly trump thing so so there's there's fifty other dictators in the world that he doesn't love oil okay. It's always about the money okay. Last thing is you can think anything you like but you're wrong. Okay so no no no you are and i'm and so i don't care and you can cry about it all day long too so the the reality is you're ignoring obvious things he goes in to meet with the russian leader without an american translator. Let alone any american government initial like you can go and be like oh that was happened in eighteen thirty seven as well when there were no translate anyway. I'm having fun there but but overall like they're like oh. Maybe that happened once or twice before. That's not even true but you're trying to find excuses. His son say we got all the money from the russians. He does almost everything on behalf of the rush including weird out of the blue things like yeah. Let's put them back in the g seven no one else not even any other conservative agrees with that that okay and then on top of that he goes as secret meetings with putin where he doesn't want any american to hear what they're talking about. The answer is super obvious yes okay. He has business ties with the russians. They have leverage over him and they tell him what to do. If you wanna cry about that go cry somewhere else. I think trump is really honest about boone. He's this about everything else but he's really honest about beloved putin and russia. I think you're crazy for thinking. That mentioned mentioned one other thing. I i would feel terrible if i didn't so i'm going to do it right now. Look <hes> there was the foreign minister of iran who is not look iran is not part of the g seven however <hes> zarif who's the foreign minister of iran was invited as guest and so i don't know is there a possibility ability that having a an iranian presence there upset him to the point where he's like well. If you're august here that he out there we know this long ago and of course this no guys. You're trying so hard not to see the obvious russians own him. I can't wait to have any kind of power where we can prove that out okay so you can't say based on this obviously like i. I say i can say it all day long. I'm not gonna put somebody prison over our assumptions no matter how obvious they might be well goddamn prosecutor look okay tours business ties with russia. What is wrong with you guys. It's the most obvious thing in the world and don't tell me they they've looked into it because they haven't shown only the case where they looked into it. You don't have it. You just look at it so he must be guilty. Amos be innocent and if you're on the so called left and you keep insisting screaming from from the rooftop how innocent donald trump is even though you know they haven't looked into his business is with russia. What's your motivation and i think your motivation is that your to. You've dug a hole too deep and you can't get out so you've surrounded yourself with your own bias and you're like nope. Nope nope trump's totally innocent on russia totally innocent. No i don't i want to see i don't wanna see the hundreds of millions of dollars. Each took and i don't want to talk about whether he might be biased about money. His own personal interest is everything else but not this one on this just one his pristine. Okay okay well. How about cost make that argument and get mad at me but you're wrong and i'm right all right. I just wanna know one other thing for or anyone who thinks that we are in this weird echo chamber where we never disagree with one another but look we agree largely when it comes to trump's relationship with russia. I'm just saying in this particular context. He might have been motivated by other things. I'm just putting that out there. We got to move on. I want you to get mad at jake okay.
The science of relationships, with Gary Lewandowski, PhD
"It's that time of year when drug store candy aisles filled with red hearts the price of a dozen. Roses seems to skyrocket and people's thoughts turned to the state of their romantic relationship or their lack of one for psychologists. Romance attraction and love are not merely the stuff of poetry their subjects for scientific study. What are the qualities of a successful relationship. Why do some relationships last and others fail. What do we gain from our relationships. And how do we know which ones are worth holding onto. These are some of the questions that relationship scientists delve into and the research can help the rest of us as we navigate this area that is so central to our lives. Welcome to speaking of psychology. The flagship podcast of the american psychological association that examines the links between psychological science and everyday life. I'm kim mills. Our guest today is dr gary. Lewin douse key. A professor of psychology at monmouth university whose research focuses on romantic relationships self and identity. He's published more than fifty academic articles and three books on research methods and the science of relationships including his most recent book stronger than you think the ten blind spots that undermine your relationship and how to see past them. Thank you for joining us today. Dr lewinsky and desk. Thank you so much for having me. Let's start with a timely question. By now many of us have been hunkered down with our partners for almost a year due to the covid nineteen pandemic when the pandemic i started. There were a lot of news stories. Some joking some not about how all of this. Covert stress combined with enforced. Togetherness was going to lead to a spike in the divorce. Rate or the birth rate. Your you've actually done some research on. How people's relationships are faring during the pandemic. What did you find. Well it turns out you. A lot of those predictions were just raw cynical. Negative outlook about relationships in the pandemic was going to affect them but as it turns out You know relationships are stronger than we think. In relationships have done a lot better than we thought and in particular. You know along with colleagues at monmouth university polling center we did a poll earlier in the pandemic in in may and when we asked people. How do you think the pandemic is going to affect your relationship. There's a lot of optimism. Fifty one percent said that they thought the pandemic was gonna make the relationship stronger and it's completely counter. Intuitive to what a lot of people thought at the time only one percent thought it was going to have gotten worse. One percent one percent rate is so it's like one out of one hundred. Thought you know this is this is going to be bad for us. and forty six percent thought it was going to be unchanged unchanged is is sort of a unexciting thing a lot of times but in the context of you know global pandemic in all of the other worldly stress that our relationships have had to endure the past year. No change is a pretty good thing for those people who do feel like their relationships are suffering right now because of stress due to the pandemic do you have any research based advice to guide them of people that are suffering. I think it's You know trying to rely on your partner as as much as you possibly can. I think it's you know one of the reasons why relations have done well. Is that for. Many of us are romantic. Partner is our best friend and by having to stay inside for pandemic. you're basically being forced to spend more quality time with someone who's your best friend which isn't so bad And so i think a lot of people are having some trouble with their relationship. It's more of a matter of you know changing your perspective a little bit as a famous quote that says a shift in perspective is worth eighty iq points and so shifting perspective and really just trying to focus in on all the good that is there that perhaps you're overlooking michael. A long way to help people do better during during these troubling times more. Generally what have you and other. Researchers found are the most important qualities or ingredients that make relationships work Some research done by ron balls iranian many colleagues Cleverly titled love in the time of covid found that you know covid has been very stressful for lots of people but what they found was when one of the partners was very responsive in so responsive partner. Someone who listens to you cares what you think and tries to see things from your perspective. It really helped mitigate a lot of the stress that cova has brought on so being one of those partners who really takes the time to understand. Bali in care for each other is really going to help your Relationship weather the storm. You did an interesting poll a few years ago where you asked people whether their partner was their best friend and you found that eighty three percent said yes a far higher number than in a similar survey twenty-five years earlier. Why do you think that's changed. I think we're getting better relationships. I think we're expecting more and rightfully so are relationships are one of the most important parts of our life. It's the source of lots of the good times lots of bad times in so compared to twenty years ago certainly fifty years ago. Our expectations are just much higher And i think by-in-large that's a good thing you know we. We not only are looking for someone to help. Pay the bills in and run the household in make just so our day to day. Experience work on the i mean those were more partnerships now. Were really looking to our partners to help us become better. People get a more fulfilling and meaningful experience. And you know i think largely people are able to find that You know we're waiting longer to get married so you know in some ways. We're making a lot better choices. And you know the divorce rate has gone down. So it's we're getting better at this. Which which is really nice to say. I'm gonna speculate here. Because i think there's no data but i'm wondering if you think the women's movement has had any effect on this because relationships are becoming more egalitarian. Absolutely i mean. I think the best relationships are the ones that are like you said he gal -tarian where partners share power in their equals in both partners. Get to be their own person and help each other. Become better people in. So you know when you have in automatic imbalance of power from the start particularly along male and female gender roles in stereotypes. It just going to bake in this automatic Incongruity and inequity between couples. That is just not going to lead to the Equality that we know. relationships need. Are there universal warning signs that our relationship is doomed. And if so what are they. I wish there were right. I mean it would make everyone's life so much easier if there were yet. Ding ding ding. There it is it is. There's the big red flag i need to avoid. It turns out relationship complicated. It's between two different individuals. Mrs n- not saying anything that people don't know but we're we're just not very good at reading signs and knowing what the right signs are to read and so you know if there is any one big sign. I'm not sure we'd even pick up on it if even if we knew about it you know. Relationships are filled with a bunch of doubt. it's just we have limited relationship experience In relation experience we have is not the same as expertise and so as much as we've had a few relationships here and there. I'm there's so many more relationships out there for us to learn from and that's where science comes in and that's really what i'm trying to do with the book is you know there's three hundred and fifty studies or more in this book In science has the benefit of relying on a lot. more people. One thing you write about in your book is that we're a lot less insightful about our own relationships than we think we. Are you describe a study where college students were less accurate at predicting how long their current relationships with last than their parents are roommates. Were why is that is is love truly blind. Yes so it's also a little deaf a little dumb. Yeah i mean. that's that's study shows. You know you ask people to you know. Look off into the future in which relationship going to be like. If you're asking the person who's in the relationship there. They're really confident about that. Answer it's your relationship. Who knows you in your partner better than you would. That study shows is that as much as the person in the relationship is the most confident. They're also the least accurate. You really can't ask for worse. Combination than being super confident about really inaccurate information. And really what happens is your parents. You know it's parents would is really mostly moms and your roommate have some other information that you don't necessarily in the sense that they're not in love with your partner and so when you're in love you're you're making decisions for more emotional side on your may see knows what you've told them but also sees some of the fallout. Perhaps of a bad experience. You had with a partner a fight or you know you perhaps crying in your room in those kinds of things. They have that inside information and so both particularly your mom and your roommate to to a large extent. Just want. what's best for you. They don't really care about your partner ceilings and so a lot of times in relationships we get really wrapped up in convinced that we're doing a lot of things that aren't good for us for our partner and that's only gonna be for the good of the relationship which is actually another one of the blind spots. I talk about the book that experiment with college students. What happens as we get older. Do we get better at this. We gain more wisdom and relationship experience. We do to a large degree You know we get a clear sense of who we are and so when we have a clear sense of who we are. It gives us a better chance to know what we want. When you're clear about who you are. You can find partners. Who see you as you see yourself and that that's important because we don't want to form relationships with partners who are only willing to love us if if we're willing to just change a little bit and similarly. We don't want to have to do that to other people as well and so you know as we mature and focus also in terms of our relationships more on the friend relationship that we have with our partner rather than the purely physical arousal you know that emea passionate love types of feelings you know we get a little wiser. We agent in realized that Being friends is really important. In fact studies talk about is a study with what they called. Expert couples these couples who are happily married for over fifteen years and he said you know what. What's the secret. How did you do it and the number one answer was my partners. My best friend. The number to answer was i like them as a person and so you know it's certainly passionate level gets married but it's the companionate love that keeps us married and keeps his happy. So what are some of the blind spots that you talk about in your book. So there's things you know the amount of how much sex you're having in focusing too much on the number of times you're having sex per week Trying to aim for perfection that you know setting your standards where you're looking for the perfect romantic partner on the idea that men and women in heterosexual relationships are completely different The idea that we need to be as close as we possibly can to have a happy relationship. That closeness is again should be taken to the extreme in some ways One of them is is that it's not okay to be a little selfish in your relationship and in fact that you being a little selfish is is a good thing I mentioned the idea about sacrifice that we should make all kinds of sacrifices for a partner things like we shouldn't argue things like my partner must support me in every way at all times Those are some of the mainland's over sacrificed when you've given up too much of of yourself. One of the things. I say in the book is at sacrifices. Ideally should be mutual and minimal in. So you know if you're sacrificing a lot. That's fine but just make sure your partner is too and so you know you should be maintaining a sense of equity there on the also minimal. A you shouldn't have to forsake major aspects of yourself and your interests in things that you enjoy for the sake of your relationship A lot of times people kinda take on this martyrdom about their relationship. Where it's i'm going to be the one that gives up all of this stuff Because they they they really believe that. It's going to help the relationship now. We know that when you make sacrifices your commitment dozen crease which sounds like a really good thing. I'm an by and large. It is but your commitment increases but your satisfaction. Happiness doesn't cheer becoming more locked into a relationship that isn't necessarily making you happier. We also known you make sacrifices for your partner. It doesn't necessarily increase your partner's commitment and that's seems odd rate. Is you know. I'm making these sacrifices. Because i want my partner is helping me buy into the relationship. It should seem linkage to help my partner byron as well but the problem that you run into. Is that partners. They don't notice everything that you're doing in fact a missed fifty percent of it and so if you're you're making a bunch of sacrifices and your partner can't be bothered to notice you really setting up this toxic mixture that you're just going to start hating your relationship partner more and more rather than you know all the sacrifice was supposed to help and it turns out the attorney so are you. Are you supposed to say so honey. Did you notice that vacuum today. How are you supposed to deal with that. Yeah it's it's actually. It's really tricky. Because you know i it's it's this needle. You have the thread because as much you want to make sacrifices. You're right you should. If you feel like you're really giving that much partners really not noticing. It's always good to bring it up. It's always be willing to engage in those uncomfortable conversations that that's a good thing but we also know that when it comes to support the best kind of support you can offer your relationship. Partner is invisible support support. The data will notice. And so you know if you're vacuuming and they're not noticing rather than trying to get credit for all the little things that you're doing chalk it up to invisible support and just know that you're doing things for the benefit of the relationship and in fact we do know that when people making sacrifices and they're doing it for that reason for the benefit of the relationship they work out much better than if they think it's about gatien or some sense of duty. What about conflict. I think we all know couples who are always bickering. But they've been together for a long time and on the other hand there are couples who almost never fight so how much conflict is too much in a relationship and is a possible for there to be too little. Yeah i'm gonna start with that last point. There's definitely such a thing as too little conflict. I think it's it's one of those larger blind spots where you know. I hear people say i know me good relationship because we have never had a fight and you know if you've been together week fine that's great Because early on you can get by without fighting but if you're to people who share power equally relationship you're gonna have your own opinions. It's almost impossible not to experience conflict and so too much fighting Perhaps it depends on how you're fighting In how you're doing it. I think But by large those you mentioned as couples that are bickering. All the time. Bickering is is a very low intensity kind of conflict. And that's a good sign because it means that when little things are coming up you're willing to engage in that allows you to address these small things as they say in. The book keeps small problems. Small in avoid them sort of compounding in growing into these large scale major all out wars on something i call him the book kitchen thinking that turns into kitchen sinking right where he throw the entire kitchen. Sink your part because you've kind of build up all these little things trying to let it go or whatever okay and then all of a sudden. It's the cap on a on a toothpaste ryan. They don't put the cap back on and you. So how do you know when it's really time to go. It's it's the million dollar question really. It's you know. People's relationships are filled with a lotta doubt One of the studies. I started off the book with. They asked people who are considering leaving the relationship you know. What are you considering. When you're thinking about staying in twenty seven things they asked. What are you thinking about going into. Twenty three things and people who are in these relations were headed an above average inclination to stay same exact people though had an above average inclination to leave and so it just shows like how hard it is to really decide But you know the thing that i advocate more than anything in this is gonna sound a little bit like a cop out answer is you know i. I say in talks to my students that in all the time Better data leads to better decisions. So you know there's not going to be one sign there's gonna be lots of size and you wanna make sure you're reading those signs properly and the way to reduce signs properly is to be as well informed about the potential signs as possible in the the way to do that is through the relationship science. That's out there because relying too much on. You know some of anecdotes. We've heard or family wisdom that's been passed down. May not be so wise as we talk about the end of relationships. You've done research on breakup. And you have a popular ted. Talk called y break-up stone have to leave us broken what did you find. What do you mean that breakup don't have to leave us broken so a lot of times. He know breakup one experiences. Where you know like to think in binary terms like things are either good or bad and know break. Up is always generally considered to be bad. And so when i was a grad student. I you know you kind of look into your life in. Think about how your life has gone in. Use that as a way to create some research ideas Thought to myself. As learning about break-up like enron i've had braves they're actually quite good They're tough at the time but very quickly. Wow that was necessary to get out of that relationship. And so i started looking into it a little bit. did some Some research in a lot of my research focuses on the south and found that when your relationship as it should help you become a better person when you lose that relationship you lose part of yourself so that that that's bad and you know so. That was the first thing i did. Because you know. We don't always looked at negative emotions. This was Negative impact on the south end definitely found that but i looked at the flip side of that coin. Which was what if your relationship isn't helping you become a better person. What happens next. And it turned out. That addition by subtraction. That because your relationship should be a main source of self growth. When you're with somebody who doesn't help you grow simply getting out of that relationship now. Frees you up to pursue other opportunities for growth and it's it's an important thing to realize because so many people miss predict how bad breakup going to be and think it's gonna be a lot worse than it is which leads to stay in something much longer than they should and so you know what we really want to make sure that people do is not that great relationships seldom fail but the bad ones do as they should but then when those bad relationships fail you have an opportunity to go find the great relationship that everybody deserves. You've done a lot of work on something called self expansion theory. Can you explain more what that isn't how it relates to relationships absolutely self expansion. Is this idea that we all have fun. Fundamental motivation to grow and improve ourselves. And so we can do that through through lots of different ways but one of the primary ways is through our close relationships and so know we seek out partners who help us have new and interesting can challenging experiences. We learn new perspectives new skills. Pick up new hobbies from our partner all these things you know when we start form a relationship with somebody we start taking on their characteristics and experiences around in so we actually literally experience in expansion or a growth of our sense of south and that you know our relationship should provide that force Now some of the research that i've done on the not so sunny side of things is that if our primary relationship isn't able to provide that sense of self expansion. One of the major consequences is that people are more likely to cheat now morley cheat cheating just doesn't happen out of nowhere. It's there's sort of a ramping up process. In one of the things they start doing is paying more attention to alternatives so the idea is self expansion in such a fundamental motivation particularly in the context of relationships that if you're not having that need fulfilled with your primary relationship you're going to seek other relationships that will fulfill need so relationships are as old as humans going all the way back to adam and eve what what is there left for us to look at. Don't we have this all figured out by now. Oh my gosh if you had it all figured out if you know it would mean that relationships are really really easy which which they're not It's a quiet you know it's sort of. Where can this go. You know the simple answer is we can always understand whatever we understand better than we already do. This has been really interesting. Dr liu and dusky i really appreciate your taking the time to talk to us. Thank you thank you. You can find previous episodes of speaking of psychology on our website at speaking of psychology dot. Org or wherever you get your podcasts. If you have comments or ideas for future podcasts you can email us at speaking of psychology at a p a dot work that speaking of psychology all one word at apa dot org speaking of psychology is produced by lee. Weyermann our sound editor. Chris gone diane. Thank you for listening the american psychological association. I'm kim mills.
Ep. 405 - Journalists Against Journalism
"The new york times is furious. That conservatives are reporting the news. They are demanding that the conservatives stop reporting the news. This is the new york times newsroom and there will be no journalism here. We examined the latest controversy and why the latest times temper tantrum has gone too far even for fellow left-wing outlets like the washington post and politico then joe biden support collapses in a new monmouth university poll. Young people are abandoning traditional values and the p._c. See left is furious over dave shells excellent new comedy special all that and more on michael knowles and this is the michael knowles show the new york times says officially come out against journalism. This is perfect. This is just it is a temper tantrum going through the entire newsroom of the new york times it exposes for once and for all the hypocrisy of the mainstream media yeah and of the left and of specifically the new york times which is the iconic newspaper in this country. We already knew they were hypocrites but this they really just throw their cards on the table no subtlety anymore we're living in the age of trump and he's making them do it. We'll get to that in a second but i support for the michael. Knowles show comes from our friends at rocket mortgage by quicken loans. I live in los angeles. It is not easy to find a home. It was easy enough. You find it you look and it's like seven zillion dollars and everyone's already bidding on it and it's all just a disaster. Fortunately i know that when i do find the house of my dreams finding the right mortgage will be easy because rocket mortgage makes it easy. I'm i'm a millennial. I never learned anything useful. I didn't learn how to balance a checkbook. I didn't learn any of the very complex aspects of getting a mortgage. Fortunately their their mortgage experts over quicken loans have their number one goal to make the home buying process smoother for you. They've industry-leading online lending technology rocket mortgage pitches there with award-winning client service and support every step of the way you know buying a home is for most people the most important financial decision they will ever make in their lives cbs. It's extremely complicated. Don't go it alone. Go in there with the best. Quicken loans is ranked the highest in customer satisfaction for primary mortgage origination nine years in a row. They've also ranked highest mortgage servicing five years in a row when you work with them you get more than just alone because rocket mortgage is more than just a lender gets distorted online at rocket mortgage dot com slash knowles candidate l._e._s. equal housing lender licensed in all fifty states nmlsconsumeraccess.org number thirty thirty rocket mortgage by quicken loans push-button get mortgage so the new york times officially comes out against journalism. They don't do this on page b seven win or z ten they do it right there on the front a one they are so furious at president trump right now that they are formally objecting to journalism because here's what happens the new york times reports on conservative figures conservative politicians conservative media figures sometimes on private conservatives in private citizens and that is apparently a good thing really good. When the new york times reports on conservatives now there are conservatives who were reporting on leftist new york times reporters that is very bad. It's good when we do. Journalism conservatives bad when we do journalism to to leftists. Why is that just because the new york times says so so we have to believe it. This is the article from the new york. Times begins quote washington. A loose network of conservative operatives allied with the white house is pursuing what they say will be an aggressive operation operation to discredit news organizations deemed hostile to president trump by publicizing damaging information about journalists. It's the latest step in a long running effort by by mr trump and his allies to undercut the influence of legitimate news reporting not that illegitimate news reporting that all those conservatives are doing but the legitimate it news reporting. How can you tell what's a legitimate news reporting well. It's win the new york times. Does it when leftist to do it when conservatives report the news that is illegitimate why because they're conservative and only leftist sir supposed to report on the news now. What are they doing. What is the damaging information because when i read that i thought you know it's a little it's a little tricky. It's a little crafty were they. Doing there probably digging through these reporters trash cans right. They're probably going in calling up their ex girlfriends and their ex-wives ex-boyfriends. I don't know i don't wanna be discriminatory or exclusive here. They're probably finding sex scandals right. They're probably going into their personal lives because that might might be a little bit too far. They do it to us. The left does us all the time but look. I think that's there should be a separation between public and private. Maybe that is a little bit too far except that's not what they're doing at all. Do you know what they're doing. The shadowy group allied with the white house discrediting real journalists. All they're doing is is reading through the journalists tweets they are. They're just combing the journalists public social media profiles the times goes on four people familiar with the operation described how it works asserting that it has compiled dossier of potentially embarrassing social media posts and other public statements by hundreds of people who work at some of the country's most prominent news organizations so they're reading the journalists public statements and journalists you will recall for their job for a living thing make public statements as what they do so they're so with the shadowy group is doing is reading the news and that is bad. The new york times is furious because people or reading the news kate reading the journalists public pages public statements than they are posting about the journalists public statements now how the new york times i mean this is. This is so absurd third. I'm surprised even the new york times could do this with a straight face. But how do they do it. How were they able to run this big story. It's bad that conservatives read post about the news. That's more or less the thesis of the stories. How can they do that with a straight face. Listen to the language that they use the times writes operatives have closely asleep examined more than a decade's worth of public posts and statements by journalists. The people familiar with the operation said you see it's not just people reading the news and posting about what if an operation who only a fraction of what the network claims to have uncovered has been made public so let's stop right there that isn't true. It's all been made public. These are all public posts. They haven't uncovered and it's just there. It's it's it is uncovered in order for something to be uncovered. It has to be covered in the first place but this isn't covered in the first place this journalists whose job it is to write things in public for a living writing things in public and then these people reading it and reposting only a fraction of what the network claims to have been uncovered has been made public the people said with more to be disclosed as the twenty twenty election heats up the research is said to extend to members of journalists families. Okay now stop right there. That's not good. I don't want people's families to get dragged into this. You know people have private lives. They private families that i would really be upset. If somebody started digging through my wife's stuff i i wouldn't do it to somebody else or someone's kids. It's just ugly. It's wrong. That's the journalists are the fair game. They're public. Figures public figures are totally fair game but the private low well hold on wait a second hold on we we gotta finish that sentence because the sentence in the new york times it goes on it says the research is to said to extend it into members of journalists families who are active in politics as well as liberal activists and other political opponents of the president so it the work of these shadowy right wing operatives isn't going into the family's private lives. It's only covering the family members who are politicians who are for public political activists who are already fair game by the way the fact that these journalists families are active in politics is a scandal in itself. I i mean i guess it's like if it's a commentator or somebody somebody who has is an obvious political point of view that they own up to you know. Let's say it's <hes> somebody on the sean hannity or so. Let's say if sean hannity's wife were congressman or governor something that wouldn't wouldn't be a scandal because hannity has a political point of view or banner. We're tucker if it were drew or if it were me if if our relatives relatives were in politics. You wouldn't say oh my gosh. I'm shocked to find out that this person holds a conservative point of view because we're open about our point of view but for journalists who are purportedly objective reporters too then we find out their whole families are in politics that is scandal reporters are supposed to have objectivity reporters are not supposed to be literally sleeping with their subjects. That's not good. I mean this has been something something. We've criticized the left for for so long. George stephanopoulos spends his whole career as a democrat political operative. He is actually the communications director for the clinton white house and then one day he puts on a different color tie and he pretends to be an objective reporter on network news. What are you what are you talking about and now he's their main political reporter order at a._b._c. This was the guy who masterminded the clinton. Propaganda strategy and you say that's just ridiculous. That is a scandal now. The new york times is upset that more four people are going to be exposed about that the all and end the only people that this shadowy group is going after are the family members who are already already public figures in and of themselves the new york times whining about this was so outrageous it was actually too much even for the washington post and for politico both of which are left-wing outlets. Here's what the washington post wrote about it. I mean really great coverage of it. Walpole writes quote. There is an incompatibility in the time story in the salzburger memo on one hand. There's an attempt to tore the motivations of the loose network of conservative operatives quote on the other hand. There's a stubborn admission that they have brought actionable information to public attention for decades. Now representatives of the mainstream media have answered conservative critiques by imploring judge us by the work we produce not by the fact that more than ninety percent of us were liberal democratic mainstreamers cannot have it both ways. This is the key mainstreamers could not have it both ways. He goes on cut. The idol and unverifiable talk about motivations. The tweets presented by a loose network of conservative operatives are racist or anti semitic or otherwise problematic take action if they're nonsensical distractions. Ignore them spot on at least this guy in the washington post is holding his side. The left leaning in in some cases hard left so-called journalists in the new york times. He's holding them to their own standards politico same thing political as an article quote the headline why journalists told tweets are fair game for trump new york times editors don't deserve herbs special immunity from scrutiny for bigoted speech totally right but that's what they want the new york times one set of rules to apply to them and then entirely different instead of rules to apply to the right. That's what they do and the thin skin at the new york times is not just on the hard left. It's even on what you would call formerly the center right now. In this case you call it. The never trump right politico started its piece about the new york times they started by quoting edward r murrow the the journalist with a cigarette he was portrayed by by george clooney in that movie good night and good luck very left wing journalist and the the line though is is journalists don't have thinned skins. They have no skins journalists very take things very personally. They're very sensitive and the person exemplifying this over. The new york times is brad stevens who used to be a right winger now. I don't know i guess he sent her left. You would go on now. It's kind of a hillary clinton guy at very anti-trump brett stevens yesterday. There was a story that was going around twitter that the new york times newsroom had bedbugs and you know it's in new york. Everyone gets bedbugs at some point new york. It's just a gross island and it's very compact and there are bedbugs and that's just the way it is so i guess some of these bedbugs got into the new york times. Some guy makes a joke okay. This is an associate professor of media g._w. His name is david karp and he makes a joke on twitter. He says the bedbugs are a metaphor. The bedbugs are brad. Stevens is is this sort of center centrist or centre left now columnist at the new york times and i don't know the professor could be right wing or left wing. I don't know what it is the left-wingers eh who read the times don't like stevens because they say he's too right wing and the right wingers don't like stevens now because he's do left-wing so that's that's what he tweets out. He makes a joke about how stevens is the bedbug ed buck. The tweet gets nine likes and zero re tweets so basically nobody sees this tweet within an hour brad stevens emails this guy directly and c._c.'s the guy's boss on the email. The is email says quote. I'm often amazed about the things supposedly decent people are prepared to say about other people people. They've never met on twitter. I think you've set a new standard. I would welcome the the opportunity for you to come to my home. Meet my wife and kids talk to us for a few minutes and then call me a bedbug to my face that would take some genuine courage edge and intellectual integrity on your part dude. Take a joke good grief some guy that no one's ever heard of i've made a little joke on twitter about a public figure and you are not only. Can you not take it not. Only you're inviting you. You got to your house or your all this passive aggressive email but you copy the guy's boss on the email like you're trying to get the guy fired actually even m._s._n._b._c. cold out brad stevens for this outrageous email. This outrageous attempt to get immediate. Professor fired the dinner today stevens answer. I also copied his provost. Provost on the note and people are upset about this. I want to be clear. I had no intention whatsoever to get him in any kind of professional trouble but it is the case is that the new york times and other institutions that people should be aware manager should be aware of the way in which their people their professors or journalists <hes> interact with the rest of the world. Hold on hold on you say. I had no intention of getting this guy in professional trouble. I e the email his boss to complain about him but i had no idea i had no intention of getting him in professional trouble but he should be in professional trouble and i called his boss loss. That's what he's saying. He's the butt completely negates everything that came before it in that statement brad stevens. This guy on top of the world is one of the biggest microphones in the world world new york times. Columnist can't take a little joke from a media professor at that no one's ever heard of g._w. So he sees the guy's boss and and obviously tries to get him in trouble if not fired probably tries to get them fired too because if you get an email like that from guys powerful as brad stevens at the new york times what are you. You're not going to punish the the employees for it of course not it's a joke. This is what people despise about the media the self seriousness. It's not that we don't like seriousness. We don't wanna be frivolous and flip and all the time glib or anything like that but we want people to be serious and not self serious g. K chesterton said the angels can fly because they can take themselves lightly. They're not always taking themselves seriously but they can take themselves lightly so they can fly lie. We hate self seriousness. You know this self seriousness in journalism really began. I think in earnest when the newsroom's replaced all the actual reporters with these over credentialed elite young people so journalism used to be kind of middle class job. You didn't really need to go to college if you did. You could go to a journalism program. Get out go work work as a reporter is very simple now being overnight shoulder not being a beat reporter or something. That's that's fine. If you want to be in commentary if you wanna pursue one political point of view over another if you have a a vision of the world and you're you're expounding on punditry or or something that's fine for reporters. Though that's not fun you see reporters. You need to just pursue the facts. That's it. It's it's a simple job typically. It hasn't paid that well. It's a honorable job. It's a simple job. You just do it and now because we've got these overly a self important people who actually aren't that good at journalism who aren't that good at reporting. They are just focusing on themselves. Journalists reporters. You are not a great defenders owners of democracy. You're not defending democracy in darkness. You're not preserving our country. You're you're not even especially good at being an arbiter of if the truth or discerning the truth right your story quit wining do your job. It's very simple. I was at the prager you dinner. The other night with micro micro had great advice that he passed along from a mentor of his and the advice was don't focus focus on how you're doing focus on what you're doing focus on the what not the how today journalists lists are only worried about the how had look. How do i sound. How am i being perceived. How many times am i being invited on television. However people on twitter talking about me. How did that guy told a joke about that bedbug all they're not focused on the what is their job which is reporting the facts. Do your job focus on the what worry about what you're doing. Let the how take care of itself speaking of thin skinned by the way there is an excellent net flicks special out that you have to watch and critics on both the left and and the right are assailing this net flicks special which is how you know that it's good. It's how you know that the comedian is hovering right over the mark. I'm talking about dave chapelle new netflix special so national review which is conservative publication gave this special bad review. The review of itself self was not very good but the the review talked about how this special took on too many taboo subjects that said to many taboo things up. You know we can't laugh again. It's not funny now. That's just national review. That's fine on the left. Virtually every publication all the coverage of it was saying that the specialist it was awful. It's transphobic at sexist. It's victim blaming. It's to all the p. c. terms all of the p._c. Jargon came out in these reviews and chapelle. Repel doesn't care chapelle is having none of it. He takes on every p._c. Taboo in the special he takes on the metoo movement. He takes on what he calls the alphabet people l._g._b._t. A q. elemental p whatever he takes on cancel culture here is just a quick clip from the trailer to give you an idea about how this show is going. I i want to see if you can guess who is doing an impression of all right. Let me get into character. You got gas who it is. Though okay here goes go. Hey there if you do anything wrong your life though and i find out about it i'm gonna try to take everything away from me and i don't care what i find out could be today tomorrow fifteen twenty years from now if i find out your canoe finished who who's there. It's you ooh. That's what the audience sounds like to me best. That's why i don't be coming out doing comedy. Found is the worst mother love to entertain in my it just absolutely spot on obviously there he's taking on cancelled culture and he's turning it on the audience a really brilliant way because he's talking about something that is so relevant right now which is that you know somebody told a joke thirty years ago and you've gotta like ruined his life now takeaways career takeaways house and banish him to outer under darkness where there is wailing and gnashing of teeth but he's also pointing out the hubris the self seriousness the arrogance of the audience not just the audience in that room but all all of us is the audience the twitter audience the social media audience we who all we do we wake up in the mornings. Oh aw that was a good sleep. Well time to get on the internet ruin. Everyone's life time to get on the internet and judge people. Oh yeah i got a busy day. I don't even know if i can fit in a cup of coffee free this morning because i have to judge people all day for their private remarks thirty years ago. I'm not even judging topics not even judging political issues because that's not what people are judging there judging a joke that some guy made in the nineties. It has no bearing on what was what's happening right. Now or political issues cultural issues or religious issues and chapelle is just totally flipping on his oh. You're you think it's trump that. I'm making in front of trump. He's the worst thing in the world right. Now it's you. You're the worst thing in the world. It's really great. I'm not going to spoil the rest of the show. That's just one bit in the trailer but there there is great stuff out there. He does a bit on abortion. That is the funniest most incisive abortion bit. I've seen since louis c._k.'s a few years ago louis c._k. There's another guy that no one's allowed to mention. He's now been one person because he had a bizarre sexual history and proclivity. He comes up in the show so i mean it's just terrific. Dave chapelle doesn't care dave. Chapelle is the honey badger and the honey badger. Don't give a damn. The honey badger does not care chapelle. Chapelle is not in my estimation. The greatest living comedian the greatest living comedian is norm macdonald but chapelle us up there chapelle pretty close. Dave chapelle is not the greatest living philosopher. I don't look to him for political commentary or cultural commentary or something. Some some comedians do this george carlin kind of became a philosopher toward the end of his wife in the end of his career. I i can't stand that. I can't stand when comedians turn their specials into philosophy. Perfect chapelle doesn't do that. Dave chapelle isn't a confessional comedian. I hate confessional comedy. It's the worst where it's just all mimi me me me. It's not what if she does. Dave chapelle writes crafts and tells jokes that are relevant that have bearing on the truth they tell you something about the world that most importantly make you laugh w- why are his jokes funny why at a time when there are so many clunker terrible netflix specials. I mean any schumer's thing a few years ago. It was unwatchable not even just conservative saying that because we don't like amy schumer the left was saying this. It was just not funny at all. The best example of this was net. Was that netflix special that all of the elite self-styled elite critics. Oh it's exchanged comedy. It's unbelievable that net comedy special that came out a couple of years ago barely had any jokes in it because what the way that she she changed comedy apparently was deter comedy and tragedy. She said i'm not going to tell jokes anymore. I'm not gonna make people laugh anymore. This is the new comedy. It's not the new comedy. It's the old tragedy city. The can't tell jokes left wasn't is not able to do that particularly because they are constrained by ideology and dave chapelle is not constrained by ideology he just isn't it's not like i agree with dave chapelle on everything i don't. I've never talked to him. I suspect you and i don't agree on every every single thing but the reason why he can tell jokes that make me laugh and i can laugh at the jokes that he tells is because i do my best not to be constrained by ideology and he he certainly is not constrained by ideology. This is a very important political point because ideology is different from philosophy. Ideology is certainly different from great religious traditions great from revealed religious truth. Ideology is is the formalized narrow abridged rationalized five bullet point manifesto and doctrine that purports to describe all of reality says what marxism and were communism is. This is what leftism is. It's here are the five bullet points that determine the world that described the world. The world is a history of class conflict and there is a science of history at the end of it. We'll have a marxist utopia as that's that's what more so everything that the left sees that marxists would see is through that lens of class a struggle and that's it. That's all it is. That is an ideology conservatives. Sometimes are tempted toward ideology. Particularly say libertarians have have more of an ideological viewpoint but traditionally speaking conservatives have resisted ideology if you can sum up the whole world and five bullet points then you probably don't know over a much about the world if if that's your vision of all reality. I don't need it because that's b. S. ditching ideology doesn't mean you. Don't stand for anything. Anything doesn't mean you don't have any basis of your belief. That's not even possible. Everybody's gotta serve somebody every belief. Every view of the world boils down to some beliefs so for instance me. I'm catholic. Christians broadly speaking believe in the nineteen creed. I believe in god the father roll mighty maker of heaven and earth. I recite that greed every sunday but i actually recited in latin so i don't really understand it which makes me even less ideological. That is what what i believe. I believe that crato day you know every christian church every actual christchurch recites that creed that the christian creed read. That's what i believe and everything else is fair game. It's why don't get exercised over tax rates changing so i don't lose my you mind over some new tariff policy. I don't okay one policy could be better than the other whatever i'm open minded because the the left punts on eternal questions such as that such as the basis of reality the basis of belief because they punt on those questions they basically basically embraced materialism secularism racism they make a religious idol out of political ideology that becomes the religion and as a result they can't laugh if if you make a joke about transgenderism you say you know i'm pretty sure i'm pretty sure that that big giant burly guy over. They got a big beard and like face tattoos and more muscles than i've ever seen him out. I'm pretty sure that guy is not a little girl pretty sure if you just make that it's not even a joke. That's an observation. They won't laugh. They won't agree with you. They won't rancho any premise they will frown. They will will be angry because you've contradicted. What more or less has become their religion as a result. They can't laugh. I mean you know we laugh at things because they're true you you know comedians or or pointing out the absurdities of life and so to us one example you say that giant burly dude over there with shaved head and a big beard and you know it's like chomping open on chewing tobacco or something. He's not a cute little girl. If you point that out that's funny. People would would laugh at that unless you're so constrained in warped by ideology that you can't can't that you can't even laugh at dave chapelle but you should you will laugh go. Check it out to really really great. Special got to get some twenty twenty news. Joe biden is he's tanking in the polls. We will get to that in just one second we will also we'll get to wideness tanking in the polls and why it was right. We'll get to the bigger the story the the basis of that which is a new poll showing that young americans values have radically changed their radically abandoning their traditional values. I used but i gotta let you know to tune in today seven p._m. Eastern four p._m. Pacific for our latest episode of the conversation. I will be there. It is featuring me me. I will be answering your questions live on air. My answers will dazzle you. They'll at least dazzle me and then you'll be there which will be very nice. The episode is free to watch on facebook spokane youtube but only subscribers can ask the questions so subscribe to daily wire and get your questions answered by me today at seven pm eastern four p._m. Pacific and join join the conversation. You gotta go daily wire dot com do it right now. We'll be right back with a lot more. We've got to look at twenty twenty and poor old joe boral sleepy joe. Oh is collapsing in his support. This new poll is coming out from monmouth university. It has him down thirteen points is he is now in a statistical dead heat in this poll with bernie sanders and elizabeth warren now. This is the worst poll from so far. Other polls still have him up a bit but salsa latest poll so it might not be an outlier. Just be showing us things to come. This is not terribly surprising for those of us who said that joe biden would pretty much peak at the very beginning and then kind of steadily lose support so long as other candidates were able to show that they had any chance whatsoever of beating donald trump even worse for joe biden in here is that his support is collapsing among every single demographic so he's down among whites blacks high school grads college grads men women and and voters over fifty especially bad for him is losing voters over fifty and black voters because <hes> those two groups are are group's that he had a pretty decent hold on among the democrats and you know if the democrats for instance can't pick up any older voters you know voters over the age of fifty cents. I think the median avian gung-ho rabid democratic voters like eleven that's why they want to lower the voting age but if they can't maintain support among black voters and voters over fifty there they're in serious trouble and joe biden is showing weakness there as well. Why is this happening. Three reasons first one is joe. Biden is obviously losing his marbles. This is not even to lob bomb or to be mean or cruel to uncle joe. He's just old and it's not to say that old older older people can't be president. Obviously president trump is not a spring chicken himself but biden seems to be declining mentally and physically. Here's a recent video. The of joe biden struggling to string a sentence together even one coherent sentence well talking about healthcare policy. We also have bananas control drug prices assist the it's not we're no longer using chemical base things all this thing re dealing with cancer and other issues related immune system whereby oriented we're in it. There are very expensive and we should set up a system. I propose which i will. If i'm elected president now allows the folks that h h the folks folks that health and <hes> the health department and the united states h._h._s. to be able to go out and bring them together outside experts and make a judgment when there's a patent being sought by drug company what that wh what it's worth what the ranges wha-wha-wha-wha-wha-wha-wha-what unearth is going on now in that video. He looks like he's struggling to come up with his thoughts either. That's because of permanent mental decline or it's because he's really tired and i'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and say he's really tired campaign trails or exhausting. I've been on presidential campaigns before it is unbelievably physically physically demanding any campaign not just presidential but congressional races run for dogcatcher. It's a tough thing to do and it takes a lot out of you even takes out a lot for young men. You have to be up to the physical aspect of that job. It actually gives you a lot of respect just on a physical basis for guys like trump and reagan you know when reagan was meeting gorbachev for the first time you have reagan the oldest president in american history at that time and he was gonna go meet gorbachev outside he was going to it was indoors. He was going to go down the stairs and meet outside in the winter so gorbachev gets out and he's wearing this big heavy coat because it's wintertime reagan ditches. She's the code. He won't wear the coat he comes out of the door and hops down. The stairs moves very quickly down those stairs and he just looked like a vigorous. A young man meanwhile gorbachev was younger looked like he was older looked like he needed the cote looked like he was moving more slowly and the optics matter the images as matter when you're talking about the leader of the free world when you're talking about any sort of politician same thing with trump i mean trump by all accounts. You can lob any criticism of him that you want. He's reckless gla he's impetuous. He doesn't read he doesn't this it all the all the typical attacks against him. The one thing that nobody not even his worst critic can say is that he doesn't have energy. I mean he pretty much got the g._o._p. Nomination because he contrasted his high energy with jeb bush's low energy trump is a high energy energy guy he by all accounts doesn't sleep very much every night. He's constantly working. He's constantly vigorous when he's not working. He's out schmoozing on the golf course he's it's just kind of moving around and he's like sort of a medical wonder because he doesn't exercise he brags about how he doesn't exercise eat fast food and drinks diet coke at this point. He's probably just so preserved by the chemicals that can move around. 'til outlive us all that matters. Nobody thinks of donald trump has doddering old man because donald trump has more energy the new ronald reagan had the same thing he was just a vigorous guy who was riding horses all the time while he was president and while and after he was president and it wasn't even writing western he was writing english. Bush is writing a even more vigorous style of horse. Riding job doesn't have that and he if he doesn't have that now. He's going to have it in a year and he's not going to have it if he were ever elected president. That's that's just the first problem going on with joe biden. The second problem is he didn't have many marbles to lose to begin with because he's always been kind of a doofus. He graduated toward the bottom of his law school class. He had to drop out of the nineteen eighty eight presidential race because of that it to drop out because he lied about his law school record and because he plagiarized arise to speeches. He's always been kind of duke a doofus two thousand eight. He was nothing he's really didn't do very much when he was in the senate other than that ninety four crime i'm bill which was a very good crime bill actually and it's the one thing in his career. He really has to run away from so he's losing it. He didn't much lose to begin with and third voters. Priorities ladies and values are changing is the most important part this is the biggest issue for biden and for the country ernest hemingway describes bribes going bankrupt as it happening gradually then suddenly as we're seeing here with the changing values of this country biden represents an old guard. I'm not saying thing is a moderate. He's not a moderate but he does represent something a little older for instance. He's patriotic he at least pays lip service to love of country and patriotism atri it ism the other democrats don't and this is this is changing. This is a new thing. They don't like the country now you might say. The democrats never liked the country and the left always aided the country maybe but at least they paid lip service to it at least hypocrisies. The tribute advice pays to virtue now. They are openly denigrating the country. Andy cuomo democratic governor of new york says america was never that great barack obama says i don't believe in american exceptionalism. I believe in the way the greeks believe in greek exceptionalism. You have other candidates now. Saying america's hopelessly racist hopelessly bigoted. There's no there's no way to ever redeem america you you have elected democratic. Politicians presidential candidates openly denigrating the american flag supporting supporting people who are protesting the american flag which is not just a symbol of one institution one aspect of the country. It's a symbol of the whole country the entire nation. There are openly hostile to american this reflects. A broader trend among younger voters. They're just following where their voters are going. In this election. Millennials else will rise up to possibly match or nearly match baby boomers as eligible voters now that doesn't mean they're gonna come out. Vote at the same rates as baby be boomers young young americans don't vote at the same rates as older americans so probably the boomers are still gonna vote higher rate but they're they're slowly and steadily gradually gradually then suddenly taking control of the country and the politicians that rely on them for votes or paying attention that spells trouble because millennials are are not as patriotic as past generations. Don't take my word for it. It's not just insinuation. This is according to a new poll out from wall street journal new york era wall street journal and n._b._c. a._b._c. Which shows american values are shifting dramatically gradually then suddenly this is from the from the article patriotism religion and and having children rate lower among younger generations than they did two decades ago and they rate much lower twenty one years ago they took this poll strong strong majorities of americans chose the principles of hard work patriotism commitment to religion and the goal of having children is being the most important to them now. The good news is millennials and gen z. still value hard work. They still like that but they're only other sacred held. Value is tolerance hololens tolerance religion patriotism even having children much much lower. This is a direct result of losing religion saint andrew breitbart. The patron of hollywood conservative said politics is downstream of culture and we know culture is downstream of religion. Colton culture are related words with the culture worships defines that culture and disc problem goes all the way to the foundation of society religion because when they you say tolerance they don't really mean tolerance. Tolerance is one of the most abused words in the english language today this story in the nineteen sixties when the father of the new left herbert markouzi wrote essay repressive tolerance in which he said we can no longer tolerate intolerance. Oh tolerance needs to become intolerant. This when we conservatives joke about the the so-called tolerant hollering left which is always attacking conservatives and shutting us down kicked off campus in some cases physically attacking us. They're obviously not being tolerant into being tolerant by this new definition of tolerance capital t it's it's the the value of secular religion what it really means is it's the value of multiculturalism capital m. and cultural relativism capital letters right they mean those ideas mean that nothing is true objectively flavor therefore tolerance and hard work or all that we can value the thing that's really troubling about this too because look we all like hard work. At least we can all agree that hard work is a good value you except in this case it spells trouble because it means that we we increasingly only value things that have to do with our will not not with our intellect hard work and tolerance or values of the will you can just sort of will yourself to do at grit your teeth and tolerate stuff you don't like that's the good version of tolerance or grit your teeth and tolerate only tolerant opinions and don't tolerate the intolerant opinions and kick your campus but you're still it's all about the will it's not about actually thinking. This is true and beautiful. This is better than this. This is this is more accurate than this. This is objectively true. It's just the will same thing when when it comes to hard work hard work just grit your teeth and do it right not because of any intellectual scheme reason scheme of reason but you just will yourself to do work religion patriotism or values of the intellect you can't you can't i can't even really will yourself into the intellect won't go with you. You you subscribe to a religion because you think it's true because you think god exists and and he has a son named jesus christ and christ instituted a church and you go to mast- for that reason and he instituted sacraments and you have the sacraments. It's there is an act of we'll obviously but it's part of the intellect that comes along to same thing with patriotism. You can't just will yourself into loving your country can't will yourself into loving anything getting really you can go through the motions but there has to be intellectual assent at some point. You have to really love your country. Why do i love my country because it's a great country. What do i love my parents because they're great parents. I mean it's the same kind of thing it's the same sort of filial piety. I will my love. Obviously i enact my love love country my patriotism but i- intellectually assent to that as well and we have undercut our own confidence in our faculties of reason season nothing is true with nothing can be believed this radical skepticism you i'll do me. I can't ever tell you. I can't impose my views. It's nothing stop. Stop being so judgy. These these kind of slogans he's kind of ideas are undercutting the basis of our politics itself itself the basis of self-government the basis of open debate the basis of true tolerance when you lose those things we're kind of living on the fumes of them were living right now. In the fumes of religion and patriotism once that's gone we have no reason to participate in our institutions to have reasonable debate to have open rhetoric to have open discourse in this country when it just becomes about the will then we will assert or will on others you see the left doing that increasingly they are. It's just all about wilfulness and what they want. They're going to get what they want because they want when they want. It is an unrecognizable country when you when you stop loving your country. Don't be surprised when you wake up in the country looks very different than you remember it. That's our show. We got a lot more to get to but we will just have to do it tomorrow. Tune into our conversation. That's coming up later today in the meantime. I'm michael knowles. This is the michael knol show see them if you enjoyed this episode and frankly even if you didn't don't forget to subscribe subscribe and if you want to help spread the word please give us a five star review and tell your friends to subscribe. We're available on apple podcasts spotify and wherever else yes you listen to podcasts also be sure to check out the daily wire podcasts including the ben shapiro show the andrew claybin show and the matt wall show the michael knowles show is produced by rebecca dob koets director mike joyner executive producer jeremy boring. Our senior producer is jonathan. Hey supervising producer mathis glover technical producer austin stevens editor danny d'amico our audio mixer is michael amina herron makeup by just over production assistant nik sheehan the michael knowles show is a daily wire production copyright daily wire twenty nine hundred. Hey everyone is andrew. Klavan host of the andrew klavan show you know people are saying that america has never ever been so divided and they can say all they want but it's completely and utterly untrue. What is true is that there's never been a time at least not in my memory when the elite establishment it has been rooting so hard against the country that has given them everything they have. I'll show you what i mean on the andrew klavan show. I'm from flavor.
441: House Hacking as an NFL Player? How Former Tight End Hakeem Valles Grew His Real Estate Portfolio
"This is the bigger pockets. Podcasts show four forty one an icon credit overcoming that traumatic experiences. Why and who. I am today. I'd not a day. Goes by where i don't think about it but allows me to frame my day to day against gratitude. Like you could lose. A deal doesn't matter. You're not dead you could get cut from. A team doesn't matter. You're listening to figure. Pockets radio simplifying real estate for investors large and small. If you're looking to learn about real estate investing without all the hype you're in the right place. Stay tuned and be sure to join the millions of others who have benefited from bigger markets dot com. Your home for real estate investing online. What's going on brennan. Turner host of the bigger pockets. Podcast here in the shed with my friend. Mr david greene joining me in the c showed live in hawaii. What's up man. Well the weather is beautiful. It is guest was awesome yet. The conversation was stupendous fant. And i feel like this. Podcast is gonna make a lot of our listeners. Some money so i'm in pretty good mood with a Amazing dude hakim chemo. The nfl player last name right. 'cause i don't want to completely dallas. Dallas or valley develops ballas ballot alice. Okay where your balance hakim ballots. A hacking hockey was nfl player. Who got really into real estate investing as well as business He does both real estate. He has some other really interesting Farming activities will have bet you figure what that means. Later he runs a social media consulting. Business it just super like mindset solid just gets it and everything. We talked about today like with so i felt. We can t shirt and a book out of every topic today. We make that joke later on today. Show you're gonna love it a before we get there. Let's get today's today's a quick tip is a body david green gulf. Today's quick tip is to think about real estate from a business perspective. Okay it's easy to think. Real estate is a one-size-fits-all thing. I buy a house. I rented out i repeat and that does work. However there's many ways you can make money with real estate. There's buying commercial buildings and renting out part of its yourself and part of its of other people. There's buying a house that you live and run out the rooms but you operate a business from your house. There's a lot more options and people tend to think about an akita has really kind of nailed that he understands how to look at an asset. And say what's the best choose. How do i take advantage of it. I think there's a lot of creative people that are not using their creativity when it comes to how to use the asset that we're talking about so as you listen to this as you think about your plans ask yourself what else could i use this property for other than just renting it out in a residential way right good quick tip and now let's get to the show sponsors. Today's podcast is brought to you by one of my favorite stores. The home depot and home depot pro for more than sixty years. They've helped pros do more by providing professional grade products and innovative business solutions. That address the challenges you face every day making an easier to manage your business find efficiencies and improve your bottom line with more than twenty two hundred stores in the us candidate in mexico. You can access more than a million products and dedicated services for today's show. Their your single source supply house for the products and services. You use every day the know how you deserve when tough calls come in and technology you need to keep your business moving forward. Unlock like exclusive pro benefits with pro extra. The home depots free loyalty program bill. Just for pros and joy exclusive access to timesaving business tools and money saving programs save time save money and get rewarded joined today at homedepot dot com slash pro extra. That's homedepot dot com slash pro. X t r a pay investors. So deal machine is already your top rated. Rei legion technology with four point. Eight stars and over two thousand reviews and they're continuing to make it easier than ever for investors to scale our business individually each deal machine engine helps you dominate a specific type of real estate lead generation so like st engine helps you scale of driving for dollars team to create the best niche list and the industry list engine pulls bulk. Litho scale of motivated sellers deal. Machine sierra. lets you skipped tricks owner and managed targeted direct mail campaigns. And now message engine. Lets you run text. Message campaigns from the same symbol app together deal machines engines. Help you build. An unstoppable lead gen channel to scale your real estate business as big as you wanna take it message. Engine helps you keep on the right side of the texting. Laws with fully. Tcp compliant design processes than unlimited litigator scrubbing allowing you to stay focused on real estate deals instead of becoming a legal expert. Bigger pockets listeners can go to jail machine dot com slash bp and use the promo code be to get a demo of message engine and manage five hundred thousand deal. Machines theorem for free and start bringing new deal than today. That's deal machine dot com slash. Bp and promo code bp. I big thanks our sponsors as always on now. I think we're ready to get into today's show. And then you add against we kind of covered it now. The scrapbook even bring him in our i. Kim welcome to the bigger pockets. Podcast mandated the main thing to have you here how you doing. I'm doing great brandon. I'm excited to be here on the show. Good well i pumped to talk to you. I've always pump attack about to professional athletes. I mean they're just co people but you've kind of a cool story and i've been digging a little bit And we're excited to introduce you to the bigger pockets world. So why don't we start at the very beginning And how did you get into real estate. Why real estate what. What was your entry. I think It takes you know. I was always set lifelong And my uncle had properties. When i was like super super young and i was cutting grass at one of his properties and i thought that was like the coolest thing in the world and you want that made it to college. I figured i wanted to get into real estate and monmouth university is one of the few schools in the country that actually offered a degree in business with a concentration in real estate. And so that was my major and by my sophomore year. The girl i was dating her dad had just started house flipping business and i honestly called the. It was a real life. Rich dad poor dad relationship. It was like mice. Schooling education was like poor. Data was learning how to be an employee at a big marcus miller chap cbre type of company and then in real life. My rich dad or my ex's dad was we were in the field every day. I was putting an offers on pre foreclosures. I hand wrote our direct mail pieces. I was knocking down walls putting down floors one time. I hired a couple of my teammates to come up of because we were putting a master bedroom in an attic and the stairwell wouldn't fit through the front door but had fit through a second floor window so we actually like you know. Lift stairwell through second window but that's where it kind of my each started. You know over about a three year period. We flipped around ten houses But when me and his daughter broke up that relationship kind of oh we ended so then the the flipping business went went. Went away surprisingly enough actually right before we broke up he literally started to offer me equity in business. It was And i messed up to you. Had you mess up you to think without talent i should have the right to be able to akeem. Don't worry about that. Question i did. I did think about that scene in friends where they're trying to move the couch. Up the stairs you're describing. Have you guys seen that one. You know what i'm saying. I watched trashy shows. Actually i have seen that episode harass keep saying pivot and they're trying to like get the couch stairs. That's a really. It's a mess but yes exactly. It was like we're able to do it from outside which was probably an insurance nightmare but it works some day. They'll make an allstate commercials that's awesome but basically you've got the real estate bug right and once you get it. We all know who have it. What it's like. You're not gonna stop it's gonna take whatever it takes to get there and something i think about your personality from what we know about you. So far is that you are definitely the type who wants you set your mind to doing something gets going to happen. You mind sharing a little bit about your background with how you got into the nfl. Basically like how you got into college and then how you transition that into the nfl what you did when you got there absolutely so my background. You mean. as an athlete. I was a bench player like in college like literally did not get my i catch until my senior year at monmouth university a made move from wide receiver to tight. End the only reason why i made the move is because i knew i wasn't going to be granted a fifth year which would allow me to get an mba for free. If i didn't actually play like not going to pay for the year. I was on scholarship for my four years but i read my freshman year a bench player and moved to tight end first game i have my. I catch second game. First touchdown started every game after that and that off seasons in the colleges and ended my little brother. I got drafted. Because he he dropped out of. Uva as a sophomore twenty years old and got drafted. Six round to the oakland raiders and that was like the one motivator of art. That's my little brother. We used to share bathtub. And if you can do it. I got into. The big brother doesn't want to get out shine by little brother aspect of your brain. That's where you're going to become a superhuman. That's that's a that's a that's a real life. Autopilot like like no shot even though i have three touchdowns in four hundred yards. I'm making it the frigging. Nfl and got granted a fifth year. that offseason. but we're really changed for me that offseason honestly changes my mindset. Moving forward with everything. I do as that offseason actually went on a missionary trip to haiti and our mission was give out a medicine in different churches and orphanages across the country. And while we were there essentially to make a long story short. Our compound was ambushed by a guys with guns shot through the front door. I was shot up blank range. Hog-tied blindfolded came to peace. With the fact that i was dead like it was a wildly traumatic experience. Happen may twenty ninth twenty. Fifteen and the happened thursday monday. We started grad school and like summer sessions of workouts for football from next season. And like i was a mess. Ptsd out of this world. And i credit overcoming that traumatic experiences. Y and who i am today like. Not a day goes by. Don't think about it but allows me to frame my day to day against gratitude. Like you could lose. A deal doesn't matter. You're not dead. You could get cut from a team. Doesn't matter if i'm working out and it's a hard workout like it's not as bad as being tied up in third world country so it's a that once i got that mindset shift. It's easy for my mind. Go there with any type of adversity and kind of bring me back to like the center and back to my true north. But that's what i credit to making it to the nfl and making it. You know t to the person who i am today any advice you can share on how you switch that from debilitating experience into an empowering one. Two things one therapy you know. I'd say in twenty twenty mental health is the real flex are look like if like if you can be cool in between your ears as if you figure out what your true north is like. That's what's going to help you. Essentially get through everything but therapy for me like when that happened that that's what helped me to adjust and reframe that mindset but when you can just try and frame. Everyone has not their version of that store. That's pretty extreme intense. But i think we've all been to the bottom now. I think in a twenty twenty world. A lot of us have been close towards the bottom especially in a mental state. Just considering you know what everything is like right now. I genuinely believe that if you can. You know i meditate on things but if you can meditate to the point of understanding that for me it's so simple of just like oh man this client is pissed off and they just fired me. We lost six thousand dollars of rev on a monthly basis. But it's like i can still. I can still eat. My child is safe. And i'm still not dead and like the for me. Whatever your experiences. That's how i try talking to a group of college students last week. I'm just trying to challenge them. Like we all have those moments but if you can kind of it's hard because we try and suppress everything that happens to us. That's bad but if you can kind of flip the switch and turn up a bitter experience into something sweet that helps your mindset. It's super valuable for me. I fell you need to write a book called. I'm still not dead. And that would the book but i. That's your book title right there. I like that or something of that. Sort i'm still not data. That or rt show will be a little easier but still that tissue. Somebody's gonna make a t-shirt shirt about and send it to you. I i guarantee it. Now that it'd be like fifty people. That's that's that's a crazy story. Dude like i don't know we could spend an hour talking with that but we'll we'll go onto real estate man. Gosh wow okay got into the nfl you got you got you started. Who'd you start playing with. So i started off with the arizona cardinals and from an nfl. Standpoint i actually. I gotta take you back. Six months to were bigger pockets actually comes into the picture i found when i found you guys. I'll be honest with you. I was pissed off. Because i didn't find you three years earlier when i was in the dirt handwriting. Direct mail letters doing stuff looking for properties on zillow like for hours on hours on hours. Unlike not knowing all these different tactics his knowledge or information was out there. But when i started training for the nfl. I made the decision. I literally watched my little brother when he was on. The oakland raiders. He got Cut from the raiders and signed to the bills like overnight but still locked in for six months like a three thousand dollars a month lease and eighteen. Grand like poof. Go into air. I'm like that can happen to me. If i make it and when i make it to the nfl. I'm figuring out how to get involved in real estate. Some way some shape some form and that was when i found the podcast like super super super early days of the podcast like i remember. Your hawaii. Trip was like a journey that all of your og podcast followers. Follow along that entire journey. But that's i literally had twelve hour days of training and four to five hours of downtime. Every day during that time i listened to every single episode of your podcast but then i also downloaded the audio books that every guest recommended like during your famous four and literally listened to the audio for six months no january through april four months straight. That's all i consumed. And i was like whatever city i'm doing real estate made it to the cardinals. It was two thousand sixteen in phoenix. I'm like this is a perfect city to do real estate in but then quickly realized you don't get paid until september comes around and like i also need actually make the team you know. A lot of people have a short cup of coffee and the nfl. Meaning just april through September not actually play. So i need to focus on making the team and then figure out what my angle was into real estate. Yeah i wanna make a point here. Real quick about people are listening to oh. Nfl player. You know you probably got drafted and making you know. Forty million dollars a year the first year or one hundred million dollars. That's the numbers that we hear on the news. But what is it like. What does the average athlete like actually make when they get in and maybe for the people that are not familiar with the sport world. How does that work like a lot of people get drafted. Only some of them end up plane and some of them. Will you make a little bit money. Like what's that like a hundred percent. So it's when you get in an april so for me for example i went as an undrafted priority free agent signing bonus with seven thousand dollars which was really like four thousand dollars after taxes and i then had a stipend of everyone gets a stipend of you get your signing bonus of your first round draft pick. You're getting anywhere from fifteen to five million dollars signing bonus all the way until the seventh round you're getting a fifty thousand dollars signing bonus but then if you go undrafted some people they'll give a signing bonus because you have the like. I had the decision to choose between teams as a priority. Free agent of what team wants to give me an actual contract but the cardinals gave me a bonus to incite me to come there. Seven thousand dollars in thousand bucks a week until september. So this is april and with that you know once you actually make the team so you're on tv. You're doing all that type of stuff. People think you're living life and it's hilarious because there's some people who like now trying to conform fit into the guys like there's a massive wealth gap in professional sports and september comes around. If you make the team you're going to be making a minimum of four hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year but if you also make the practice squad that's actually a hundred and ten thousand dollars a year after taxes off off after all of that can go into it. Why most players go broke. And the outside doesn't realize is most professions. People get paid fifty two weeks out of the year. The nfl unlike any other any other profession unless there's a lottery winner you're getting paid only seventeen weeks out of a fifty two week year. And when you're giving a twenty two twenty three year old who's never had a relationship with money because of ncwa rules. They weren't hustling and flipping houses like me when they're in college. They've never had a relationship with money. So now you're given that twenty two twenty three year old twenty six thousand dollars a week. It's very easy to spend ten thousand dollars a week and think that you just save sixteen and do that for seventeen weeks straight and then january first comes around and you're making nothing but you have those types of spending habits but like there's this massive wealth gap a guy like me is making twenty thousand dollars a week. The guy the locker over from is making seven hundred. Twenty one thousand dollars a week and it's like the guy next to him is making one point three million dollars a week and it's just like when you see that and when you're in the same circles and you're going to the same places around the same crowd. That's easy to conform into the wrong things. I would imagine that keeping up with the joneses. When you're in a locker room with the person making that much money versus you. How the pressure you feel. Plus how quickly burn through your hundred and ten thousand dollars trying to keep up with the guy who's making fifty million. It's real. I mean it's it's it's the realist thing you witness. Because people are everyone wants to keep up. Everyone's hang out. The most popular guys are also making the most money so everyone wants to hang out with those guys as well so it's like damn now we're at the club who's paying now. We're at dinner. Whose past at this saying now. It's but then it's this like this guy's wearing this these type of shoes i've never. I can't believe how much people spend on shoes shoes. Yes have you heard of that. Instagram account preachers preacher and sneakers. So funny. it's all they do is take pictures of like preserve and then. They showed a picture of their shoes and how much those shoes costs. It's the larry thousand dollar shoes that this you know panthers wearing. It is wildly incredible and watching that happen. And then there's a lot of gambling that goes on in the locker rooms as well where it's like. I've watched guys one of my buddies. He was the same same same. Pay grade as me when over to a gambling circle like four hundred bucks and turned it into fifteen grand and fifteen minutes and literally. I tied bought his first car. Like when we were here. Was the craziest thing to witness like. In in first person but the wealth gap the wealth disparity is staggering. And it's hard to for everyone to be on the same type of playing phil because you got one guy who's making four grand a week because he's on the practice squad and other guy making this much a week and another guy. It's a lot it's definitely well. Let let's take this and talk about it in terms of like People with initial thinking. While i'm on an athlete i don't have that problem but let's let's be honest right like we all do the same thing right like oh look at. That guy's got a really. He's got a new truck. I got a nineteen ninety seven truck. I'd really like a new truck. And so they go and you know their lifestyle a little bit. We felt income creep a bigger pockets. I wrote that in the book. How to invest in real estate it. How about this income creep is like you just gotta make a little bit more. Because that's what the next person doesn't you spend that much money. Then you make a little bit more than you spend that money and you're always trying to keep the jones and so before i just word awarding to people. Listen to this show right now. Don't just think oh. Nfl players look look at them idiots. That are trying to live this extra lifestyle. Let's like we all do it. Just the different degrees hundred percent. I mean eighty percent of america lives paycheck to paycheck whether they're making six figures or whether they're making minimum wage is. It's so simple not simple. It's so easy to slip into that type of gap. Or i mean just think of. I just always think of think of the lottery winner. No one feels bad for the lottery winner when they lose all their money or not feels bad. Everyone understands how or why it happens because someone who does not have financial literacy has now assumed a lot of money. And if you don't have financial literacy you will inevitably go broke it so man but there's so many people that are going through the grind and they think they're doing something wrong kids. It's hard. I see this all the time. I've literally heard people say. I don't think god wants me to do this thing. Because there's obstacles that keep coming in my path. I'm thinking like okay. Assuming that god is good. He would have to make it hard for you so you could carry the weight of what you're asking for. You know like this applies to everything in nature. If you wanna get a big body and you just go juice up on a ton of steroids and you can pump up your muscles really big but your joints didn't actually keep up with it. It's only a matter of time before you're gonna rip. Sounds an epic bodies not can build a to hold it wet. Wealth comes with wait. There's a gravity to that. You know it's very that's why you see these people that come across money so quickly and they never keep it. Professional athletes get example of that. No one's train them how to how to handle this incredible. I know what you want to call it like having a great weapon that you've never been trained how to use right. You're going to hurt people and you're going to hurt yourself with that so when you're going through the grind you gotta be grateful for the grind because that if you don't have it and you're a great example of that you're someone who weren't the first round draft pick that just stepped in there and said money was showered upon you and everybody was kissing your but okay so like you had to work to get in there. You had to strategize how to get in there. You had to go through some bad experiences. That unleashed a piece of you. That you probably didn't know that you had that made it. So you could do that. And you're the guy that if i could buy stock in a human. I'm like biden hockey right now. Where going he's he's ready to hold that weight and i know there's so many people that have that toxic attitude that if it's hard it wasn't meant to be that life should always be downhill road. The wind should always be at your back in the minute that the winds blowing in your face. You should stop. It means. you shouldn't do it and in my experience it's almost the opposite of that when it's come into easy you should be very afraid. 'cause you're not gonna have it for long. Your most vulnerable is probably when it's when it when it is the most easiest is definitely when you're the most born feel like oh man like i think the most issue the biggest issue is that people haven't really developed their true north like mitra north happiness. So like i don't need a million dollars a month. But if i'm happy and as long as is happy that i'm okay but it allows me to now with everything. I'm doing be wildly patient. Because i don't like i can work as hard as i can. I can set up my days to be as efficient as you want to be. But if you don't adjust your true north your true north is. I need to make x. amount a month like i think people got it backwards when it comes to reverse engineering process what their process is leading to. Because when you put money or objects or the next step on a pedestal you know the top is not that fun if that makes sense the processes which will look back on as to damn like. That's when it was. That was the best. I'm sure be. The greatest days are probably podcasts with those super super super early days like you guys are rockstars now But the process. I think is what we need to start putting on a pedestal. Yeah ooh but the process on a pedestal. Yeah it was looking out a lot of t-shirts being made you get bigger pockets Not t shirt. I dunno where this your store. Maybe i don't know that's awesome. Make these t shirts but we need some t shirts. I so let's get back to your story a little bit. See you decide. You're the nfl. You're making all this money in phoenix. But for the cardinal envy next. And i know the baseball team are saint louis. They are saying louis cardinals where the took a an animal as innocent as a little red bird. Said we wanna make that multiple seems mascots. There's a lot of bears. The cardinal inspires fear into the hearts of birdwatchers everywhere. I right so you. You are playing for the little red bird and decided what what that journey look like. How'd you get what your i deleted. Then yes so. It was soon as that season ended. Literally i gotta look back on the dates. But it's got to be anywhere from january first to january third like we didn't make the playoffs and like the last game was new year's eve. I believe against the rams. And i literally put a post on bigger pockets in the tempe new member introduction forums saying hi my name's hakim values. I'm a tight end for the arizona cardinals interested in multifamily real estate and house hacking looking to learn more networking with other like minded investors. It's probably pretty close if someone wants to pull that up at some point and look at like. That's exactly what i said. And i sixty seventy people responded to that and all wanted to meet for coffee. All wanted to take me on their property tours. Half of them wanted to pitch me some. Bs product or something invest into But it was. I literally spent january third or first to mid february every single day. I spent like four hours at the same starbucks. Literally people rotating in and out and just like all these people just pouring valued bouncing ideas back and forth. And then i finally met my like investor slash realtor which was awesome ryan swan. He's unreal. he took me around his property tour of of phoenix and tempe and got me set up on the mls and we got probably set up in march marches had properties. Coming in and out got preapproved for fha loan. And i knew. I was going to do a house hack and it's so funny it's something so small. I didn't really go foot on the gas. Like i was getting. I was getting all the pieces in place. But i was not executing until i actually talked to my dad about it. It seems like it's so small. But like i i had to pro this because it was honestly it was my unlock. I was doing everything. I just felt like until i my dad's kind of like my superhero to me personally. And when i called him. I was like dad. I thought i was going to say because he's always you know making sure i'm doing the right things whether it's investments whether it's opportunities but like told him like. Hey dad i'm doing. I'm trying to do some real estate. I think i'm going to house hack already. Preapproved already found. The properties are did like did everything. But i wouldn't put the offer and had a conversation. I didn't tell them about anything. And i was doing literally head down for two and a half three months and then told him and he was like freaking out like super excited. I was like oh my gosh. He's excited to. But the offering was a back and forth process. Didn't get the first property but an offering but the the property finally got was two hundred and sixty eight thousand dollar. Four plex in north phoenix had to commute fifty five minutes a day to the practice facility. I had section eight tenants living in the building with me. And i got the house hack a property and my property was it was it was it was awesome. Did they know you were an nfl player. That mistake i listen to you in your rental properties book you and your wife were of hiding the fact that i tried to hide it. Honestly at the beginning would happen was my car was like i had a. I bought a used car but matt out black so it looked pretty cool. Looked like a like a batmobiles a camaro and people. Like i would come back from practice and i have my gear on and a kid like a kid ran up to me and like ask me about it. He told his mom on top of that every morning like when the bus came all the kids will sit out. I was on the second world. War with like fifteen kids sitting out on the balcony waving at my ring camera like all the time and they knew i wasn't. I've talked to them through it. Sometimes i go out and sit out there with them but that was honestly. It was the big mistake. 'cause that it didn't screw me long term but it it puts so much stress on me in the long term. Like i i looking. In retrospect i tell everyone that i give advice to to house hacker buying a four plex is factor in property management. Act like you don't live there and literally just be attended of your own property because that one day when you decide to move or something happens is what exactly happened with me. Was i was doing cash for keys with the tenant and that same week honestly it was like everything came crashing down at once literally. The mother of my child and i had a miscarriage which was awful. It was terrible it was one of the hardest things. The hardest thing i've ever been through then i got cut from the cardinals after getting cut from the cardinals. I was doing the cash for keys with the tenant as well berry next day get signed to the detroit lions and now i'm literally in a workout for the lions went to detroit with backpack. My mother my child is dealing with. All the madness. Going back on in phoenix. Plus she just had the surgery from the miscarriage and then that tenant who casra keys wits. He tried to kill herself. I literally got a call from her daughter saying my mom tried to kill herself. I know she was moving out of the property. Bubble blah blah. I'll help your fiancee. Helped move out the stuff other property we go into. The property. Didn't even know this. She had a dog living in a back room that knocked over candle room. Caught on fire. Soot all over. It was madness but having to deal with the weight of all of that plus moving to a completely new city plus learning a completely new playbook plus just the social dynamics. It's like going to a new school as a high school kid of the new team and all of that was so much weight. Like obviously i got through it but man. I would recommend it. If you're gonna house hack four plex get a property manager and act like they're while well the things that are interesting to unpack their first of all Let's go back to minnesota ton of wanna through but talking to your parents. Why did that matters much richer dad why that matter so much to it was like an. I was always an entrepreneur. Like i was the kid can in college. I was the iphone repair guy. I fixed four iphone fours a day but like getting that like my dad's also at my dad's a former state trouper but he also has an entrepreneur hustler. Type background used to be in new york city selling roses and flowers on mother's day and stuff like that but getting that nod of approval. I don't know but that chemical feeling that. I can tell you i. I'm thinking about it right now. It gives me goosebumps thinking about it of him. Being excited over the fact that i was about to make this jump into real estate but i was also anticipating that he was going to almost say in slowdown. That you're doing too much because maybe subconsciously. I felt like i was doing a lot and should be just focusing on football once. He said like go. It was like. I could care less about what anybody else says that. That's hundred fifty percent was going through my mind when that happened. That's cool man Brennan have you had experiences where people realize too. You're new. you're managing the property and it went me to harder among many times. Yeah but Yeah i thought tell everybody right. The the reason. I say today that you shouldn't do. It is because it makes it an emotional decision later on. I mean i had people like people like when i wasn't home. Like tenants angry ten stop by pounding on my door. I talked to my wife because they were upset about. We gave them a three day. Notice to pay rent because they didn't pay rent like things like that and then like me feeling bad for them and thinking like ominous uptown there at the store. That's going to be awkward self-awareness. It's all right if you're good at that. I think you should do it. I know i'm not good at type of radical and the david david is good at it. Really you see your story be like yeah you pay me man. I would try to make it so my tenant was more afraid of seeing. If i love that you said is self awareness like that is not important. Any businesses actually real estate. If you know you're not good it just don't even start it. Just find the person that is good at it and double down on the stuff haunts. Because i mean once once they the people knew i was on the cardinals like then asking for two weeks later on rent. It's like you're like a super jerk. If you're not going to give me two weeks like you know what i mean so that was like oh yeah. Yeah awareness is everything that i mean. You learn that on a football team. Football team is designed to operate at peak performance at possibly. Can you could save money. Having your linebackers kick field goals. None of them do that. You can say the same guy. Can you get a specialist to be a linebacker versus a defensive end verses a safety and then even amongst linebackers you have specified types. You've got to middle linebacker. You've got an outside linebacker like if that's how the best teams in the world run their stuff we should be mimicking that same philosophy with our own bist. Very that's that's a really good point nother question for you. I want to get on with the four packs of what came next here But i wanna tell a quick story and then related to your question about it at costco yesterday. Shopping at costco and Some guy you know railway mass whatever but some guy comes up with a k. Your your your brand from bigger pockets. I'm like you. I am and i said you know you live here. He said yeah. I lived on maui because he'd love towards the come through obviously the gal here and he said we chatted for a little bit and he goes. I do jujitsu brazilian to Just got my black belt. And i said that's awesome and i do jujitsu as well. I just got my white bell like a joke right. And he said these words that like i feel like it's another book title. He said maybe this is like a thing. I don't know about in the world but he said yeah the white belts the hardest belt and like aw that's so good. The white belt is the hardest ballot in other words. Like go get just getting there. The first time is the hardest thing the white belt and is hardest belt which is now going to be a book title By like a good. But like that i deal is the hardest deal right the first deal the hardest deal how did you. Why are you different. A lot of people talk about real estate. Wanna get into it when we listen to show now for one year two years five years. They've not yet taken action. Why were you like what i'm doing it. i'm i'm in. I think one definitely helped witnessing my brother and what he went through. I knew i didn't want that to happen. And then i was paying too because be took to mitigate that happening to myself being locked into a least i was paying two grand a month to live in an apartment month and i'm like man. I just did the math. I'm like math. Is my favorite subject always and i was going to spend twenty four grand that year on air and i'm like now doing the math of this two hundred and sixty eight thousand dollar four plex three and a half percent of that was like nine thousand. I was like. I can put down even warren still gonna save money and have an answer that i can sell years later for more money. And it was just like that being logical impractical and then my thesis is shoot first and aim later like just just like the white belts the hardest by i think once you get that momentum going once you get going. It's just like a snowball when you try and build a snowball. It's hard to build the base. I was. I was in jersey that this past weekend with my daughter. We snow manage. Remember like once you got the base of going once you start to roll it. It just gets bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger than that momentum. Momentum is everything in my. I tell everyone is like you say everything. You're trying to do about getting into real estate. You say you wanna how sack you say you want to do all that. You still haven't gotten preapproved for. Fha minute conversation go it and that's where it's if you're not doing that then. Let's have a deeper conversation as to why you're not. Maybe you're not ready. Maybe you're not educated. Maybe don't really wanna do real estate. Maybe everyone else doing real estate. And you think it's the cool thing to do now and that's why you're hopping into it but you're not confident that you're going to be successful in a genuinely think it's a do shoot. I aim later. I think it's the same thing keeps me from getting into like a jujitsu jim right. I don't wanna show up on my own. Not knowing anybody not knowing what i don't know but you go with a friend completely different. I go with you to the jujitsu gym. I work out with your person. It's way different. So if you're in that spot hit games talking about trying to figure out why. I'm scared to even call the lender find a friend who's done it. Have them make an introduction call and have them to sit on the call with you. so would you like. I'm too scared. Asses pursed the question. Won't whisper it to your friend. Your friend can whisper get that momentum going. Because i think i came what you're mentioning when you're talking about building momentum. I don't know that in today's environment. There is a better way to do it than how sacchi i just. I helped so many people getting started in the bay area with house aki because it massive to building momentum you get in for stupid low down payment. You're gonna get a better interest rate. You're already spending money on rent. That's another thing. People don't realize that two thousand dollars a month that you mentioned is just dead weight. You're getting nothing for that. And is dead that increases every single year. Durant's are going to go up. You get into buying a house. Not only did you take that two thousand dollars a month that you were spending on rent that you can actually included as income and in what you're doing right. It makes your roi projections skyrocket when you do that. And even better than income. Because you're not getting taxed on it like it was normal income but it's two thousand dollars you're spending you're not that's better than making two thousand dollars you would then get taxed on and every year that two thousand that you're now getting paid by the tenant it's going up for you when it was going up on you so you're getting a double win and then you move out and then you can rent out that space and now you're making. There is hardly any way to make an argument against how sacking other than it's less convenient. That's it that's the only thing that you're giving up to do this. So if a guy in the nfl can house hack. I don't see who doesn't have a who can possibly make an argument against it. It's very true. And it's i didn't spend millions of dollars i could could've spent. I spent thirteen thousand dollars in never paid a dollar again. Every repair funded itself everything funded itself and then sold it years later. Yeah yeah that's awesome man really good stuff. I mean i got summarized three quick points here This could be like maybe a youtube video. We may eventually someday or whole solo show but like why do people not get started like. Why do they not take that first step. Why why do the fear stop people. It's going to three things set number one. I wrote down here Start small so house hacking what you did. It's a very easy thing to do. It's very slow transition So how seconds. A good way to start it could be. Also i'm gonna partner with somebody on a real estate deal. I'm gonna invest in somebody else's you know fund or going to be a private lender to them. I'm going to just find little ways to like floss. One tooth your that analogy right. If you wanna fly. Get in the habit of floss in everyday floss one tooth. It's like a little thing. Little step Number to start. Small number two is take a friend with you or partner with somebody like find a way to going to what you said about jiu jitsu right when you and i do it together. It was a lot easier And then number. Three is the most when i call men's most important next step which is identify what the next thing is. And accumulates mentioned that a second ago. How you like. It's a fifteen minute conversation to get pre-approved but most people just they have not define what that next step is and susie define with the very like the most important next step is a big part of the whole intention journal we sell bigger pockets is like everyday like what's the goal of ao. Yeah you got to write down your hands everyday. What do you what. what's the goal. What's your objective. What's the next big thing like the weekly objective. And then what is the most important extent like. Is it picking up. The phone and call in a lender is it. Is it going to facebook and saying hey do they know good lender or is it a real front if they had any to lender. It's literally a five minute. In fact i would say there's like most tasks in life can be boiled down to a five minute or less like thing. It's a series of five minute tasks and that's it and so those three things. The overcoming fears the small. Take a friend with you or do it with somebody and then that Identify what the most important step is. That's three things. I kind of pulled out of your story. Heke meaning one added that. I i love that and i think something that helped me honesty with reverse engineering things like that. I think i don't know if you've had him on the show or not. But the one thing i know you guys that recommended that so many times on the show jay back on a little while ago. Yeah such a great concept of reverse engineering things to simplify. We have these okay. I'm gonna buy a four plex. That seems like a daunting task but putting on facebook posting. Who knows a lender takes. You can do it while. You're pooping like it's not that hard or you could just email me or message me and i'll say this is the lender at us. There's so many easy get started especially when it comes to that people totally over. Think this whole real estate thing. It's hard so maybe like you know we've been talking about. We covered a lot of stuff today. But i wanna make sure people at least get an idea of your like overall journey real. Say now so what what came next. What the next few years upsets eight today look like. Yeah so from there Told you went to the detroit. Lions and same exact thing happened. They had me a an extended. Stay hotel in detroit. And i quickly realized that you know was did. The math was twenty two hundred bucks a month of paying daily. Because you could pay rent by the day there. Because i didn't know how long i was going to be in detroit then realized i was going to be there actually. I didn't realize i was gonna be be for a long time. Crazy thing happened. I i put out the post bigger pockets of same except like probably exactly how that arizona message. Look one house hack. You're in detroit. And he brokers any. Whoever thirty forty fifty people responded met with all of them went to all their meet up groups all that type of stuff and finally found a broker who is also an investor found a duplex about ten minutes from the practice facility and lived in one side and airbnb the other side the rent in that market wasn't gonna work to actually counter the mortgage but airbnb brought in significantly more Because it was more or less long term tenants like two to three weeks at a time people staying there and with the nba. People on there. You can sometimes bang out a nice a better price by doing that. And it's a lot less of a headache of the daily constant changing of the sheets and all that type of stuff so we bought a duplex out there and it was crazy. Because i bought a close on that property on tuesday and on friday of that week the arizona cardinals just up the cardinals on the lions the car. Somebody got hurt on the cardinals on a thursday night football game very next morning. I literally got meetings like ten calls from my agent saying hey the cardinals went assign you to bring you back on the team on the fifty three meals on the practice squad on the lions and teams can poach you but some gm's give you the opportunity to say no and you can negotiate to see if you can get a higher salary and i i mean i just closed on his property on tuesday and i'm like man i got obviously make it work without you know but i i wanna make it i to see this through and i really loved my situation detroit. My agent was able to negotiate a a a a fifty three man salary. Salary-wise stayed on the practice squad which is super nice And allowed me kind of play that whole lot after all. Yeah so that's one reason you wanna have long distance real saint in your back pocket. 'cause you never know you may not even plan on buying somewhere else but you may buy somewhere than have to move somewhere else in the principles or the same and as you were talking i thought you know at the sounds like to me is a lot of the time. I'll make an offer on something for myself or we'll do it for a client and will lose someone else will will get the deal and we always make a task in our crm to remind us once a week to call that agent and say hey are you still in contract and fifteen twenty percent of the time. i'd say that like they. They fall out unless it's a super hot house and we are the first person to get that phone call. That's the same thing to happen with you. A key right like you were on the cardinals they let you go some get cert- get that guy back here. We need have right now. Like you re that person where we're supposed to close the buyers just backed out. What are we going to do and they come back to you and you're like i can close two weeks. Can you guys knocked twenty five grand off the price and at that point that make make sense to them to do so. Don't give up when you get cut. Don't give up when you don't get that deal. There's it doesn't hurt you to come up with a plan and say well let me. Just call that asian every week and see if there's any trouble in paradise does real. That's a subaru. What what what next g did not you did. Not end up going back to arizona. Arizona state in detroit negotiated a higher salary in detroit. Stayed there that next upcoming off season. I bought a forty acre cannabis farm in michigan so we were hedging that cannabis is gonna go wreck in november of two thousand eighteen. This is early twenty eight. This is like january february super early twenty eighteen. And it's so funny it's back to those broker relationship that David was just mentioning somebody. Who i i got into the candidate space because of bigger pockets like an introduction through your pockets that same broker. Who sold me my duplex. When i had my initial meeting with him. I always tell people if you wanna get into an industry put it out in the universe. Start talking about it. Don't act like you know what you're talking about but just say you're interested in whatever you're interested in and i i told that broker at the time like i'm super interested in the cannabis base. I wanna learn more about it. I know the real estate side of it's going to be very interesting as well. And i literally just out of the serendipity of it all get a random call from him. And i just happened to be close to his office and he was like. Hey i've got this cannabis guy here you'd love to sit down. We'd love to chat and talk xyz blah blah blah blah and. I'm like wow cool and we sit down. Everything kind of just makes a lot of sense about a four hour conversation. And they needed to buy this land with cash because he just couldn't buy it with the mortgage with our intentions being cannabis. And i wind up coming in as an investor on the group and eight months later when cannabis went wreck in michigan. We got an offer on that same patch of land for seven million dollars. We decided we have all this leverage as investors like while we sell the land when we know what the opportunity can be essentially the capacity to put forty two twenty thousand square foot warehouses on the land and grow up to two thousand plants within each warehouse so we kind of saw it as a real estate play and have spent the last two. And a half years. Touring the country of some of the best facilities in in growers across the country To partner with and growing orland crazy. I mean we've never talked cannabis here on the show before really at all like though is the real estate side of it but how does that. How does that work in terms of like those of us who are not familiar with the industry very much means land. You grow it like where the money come from. How do you get paid you sell were we. We literally are in the process of breaking ground and development. A great now. Just got our our our site plan. approved by the town Essentially it's it's multi-faceted like you can get like we own fifty percent of the first company that's growing on our land so that money that's coming in like were able to essentially what the market rate of a triple net for that square foot of space. We can get that in actual clean rental triple net type of money. And then the other fifty percent the rest of the fifty percent of that money essentially. We'll come in a lot of loopholes. I'm not professional. Nine account and not a cannabis account you know you got put all those disclosures out there a lot of loopholes with credit unions and things like that and how all the investors have to be a part of the same exact bank But we're looking long term like yes there's going to be a lot of revenues lot of cash flows to make out of this. You know we've partnered with a private equity firm On the the the Development side of it with the intentions of you know when we are revenues to a certain level and when it does go recreational nationwide We plan on going and intend to go public. Well not so. Would you buy it for a half moon and wanted to offer seven million. You said no explained that logic again. Like why would you not take that and run on your long term thinking because one largest one in large patches of land of of of cannabis of land that zone for cannabis in michigan. I mean just the ppo we got on his every four every warehouse we erect on the land. The value will go up by four million. And we've got the capacity on forty two of them on there Then when you're thinking when it goes recreational nationwide that values gonna. I don't know what that extra multiple is going to be. But it's going to be more than seven million in nonsense and back to my initial comments as entrepreneurship is a forever gaming. I've always been interested in the cannabis. Face so i. I own a media agency now as well we. We do a couple of different things. But were actually doing the digital side and the branding four or the candidates space with super interesting. Almost double dipped. And i'm an investor plus. We're now like i'm interested in the candidates face in the industry and the different verticals and the opportunities that are within it and real estate being able to be that initial avenue instead of just getting the land and cashing out a few months later like donovan a cool win but now the opportunities the introductions the different brands that were working with now in the people that we plan on working within the space like we have the leverage by owning land. That makes sense. Yeah it's kind of it might be a little bit of like flipping houses versus rental. Like you can flip a house or doing bur. You can flip a house. Make the make the quick thirty forty fifty grand. Yeah i did it. The government half their money in taxes. And then you're done or you're like you know what we can do. I can burn. Or i can hold it as a rental and then keep it for the next forty years thirty years. Fifty one hundred years and it's going to help my family. It's going to help me get contacts in industry. I'm gonna get it. Become a better investor spell sets getting up so it's similar to the real. I mean it is real estate but it's similar to the small level. What you doing on a large level just with the kevin percent. Yeah would it makes your kind of combining business with real estate. And i think that's a mistake. A lot of investors make as they just get into single track. I'm going to buy a house rent it out. I collect revenue in this one way. There's nothing wrong with that. But you're getting into element now where we use the real estate to generate revenue through a business. And you've got this hybrid where you become much more efficient. You have economies of scale and you have more than one way to earn revenue. So i think that that's a good thing to point out is there's ways to make money in real estate. That are not just by building. Rented out to tenants have a property manager. Move onto the next thing. That's a great strategy so really easy way to get started to learn the business. But what you've got that down. There are so many possibilities it open up to. You like this one absolutely. That's exactly what's kind of come out of it and it's been like i said it's been two and a half year journey now of like really navigating the space meetings of the biggest players in the space and now being presented even more opportunities in different markets that are also in the space Like potentially getting involved in new jersey potentially get involved in massachusetts potentially get involved in the whole bunch of different verticals in by just investment decks. I don't think i would even have the opportunities to see if i wasn't in the space if that makes sense. Yeah yeah that's cool. Hey let's take a quick break from this episode will continue in just a moment but first let's hear word from our sponsors. Hey everyone are you interested. In investing in out of state properties safely passive investing in real estate is one of the fastest growing segments in investment real estate and there are ways to invest safely securely impassively out of state properties. Chris clothier has contributed to bigger pockets for a longtime through blog posts and four times here on the bigger pockets. Real estate podcast. He's also an owner of rei nation formerly memphis invest and has written an excellent forty two page book record an audiobook laying out the specific steps that smart passive investors follow to invest safely and securely you could download the book and audio at rei nation dot com slash. Bigger pockets podcast again. r. e. y. Nation dot com forward slash. Bigger pockets podcast. Our nation in memphis invest have worked with pass investors. Like you for the past. Two decades billion portfolio value of over a billion dollars. Today they are managing over sixty three hundred properties for path investors and would love to share with you the steps so smart pass. Investors take to protect our investments. Download your free e book and audio today at rei nation dot com such bigger pockets. Podcast that's our nation dot com bigger pockets podcasts for your free e book and audio on safely and securely investing in passive restate today so what's your roster real set look like the rest of your journey. Obviously today's show is about a lot more than just real estate. But what's the rest of your your. It is investing story. Looked like and then. I wanna move on asking about the media business and i feel the things absolutely so soon as i retired from the league's i'm retired from the nfl after Couldn't be the investor in an entrepreneur. Who i wanted to be. I had my daughter the morning of game and that really put things in perspective from in the dad that i really wanted to be and plan the nfl at the same time So i walked away just unemotionally you know soon as soon as the twenty eighteen season ended I walked away from the game and just tripled down onto what i wanted to do. In the real estate space was actually right when this came out Enjoying that's awesome. Hey i bought the house playing for the giants and Within ninety days. I actually bought my last property that i bought which is smaller seven unit property in des moines iowa. It was a quick in and out type of property where we didn't actually make anything off of it We have to break even we. We had a few issues kind of going in with the historic district and couldn't do the repairs that we needed to do was like a super small quick value. Add and what the things that they wanted us to do. We're gonna gonna completely destroyed by So we wound up We had released prior relationships with other investors in that market. Who knew what are the best way to actually do what they could do with that property. And we Wind up selling it off to them and you know since then. I've been from a real estate standpoint. I've been on the sidelines. I think that a lot of predictions are happening right. Now i think we haven't seen the true residual effects yet of covid. My thesis of what. I wanna do with real. Estate is Raise capital to buy larger value out apartment communities in different markets. But i don't like to what i said i don't think the residual effect like we had our worst day in the united states. Like every day is the worst day so far it hasn't slowed down so the boulder predictions that come out every single day. Still do not logically make sense to me and a math guy. And like i said have been saying that. You know real estate and entrepreneurship is. It's a forever game so if it's five years from now is the next time i deploy capital. I'm super okay with that. But if it's twelve eighteen months. I'm also okay with that but i've been on the sidelines. Watch yeah yeah interesting. Okay yeah. I don't disagree. I don't think we've seen the full effect of the of the kovin mess. I think that the it's a crazy world and it's just gonna get crazier here. So what i find interesting is that you're doing so many things in terms of like the cannabis farm you got Some real estate stuff going on you still have properties right. Still on the duplex and still own. The the cannabis farm. We sold the four plex in july. Somebody was ten thirty wanting narcan. Say no to that offer. I was surprised that i got an offer that that's when i realized i. This is a damn seller's market right. Now yes i really is your cash on those ones. And then you the media business so let. Let's what is that. First of all. I want to ask you just how you manage your whole world. They're hundred percent so it's perspective global media One of my biggest regrets when i was playing in the nfl. I did. I was insecure was wildly insecure. The content like no one knew i was buying properties. Though a new. I was doing what i was doing in real estate. I was head down. Whenever i just simply just documented what i was doing. I know it brought a lot of value and the attention that would have been garnished. I would've brought value to all the things that i'm doing today would have been wildly amplified. Do i regret it. You know got hit by a bus. If i actually did it just considering how the universe works but when i retired i tripled down on my personal brand and got to quickly quickly realize what the effects of it was and what i did you know in real time i october of twenty nine hundred is like when we we started the llc. But how i did it. And where it's transitioned into what we do today. We started off just bringing value to real estate professionals investors in helping them with digital content whether it was creating content for lincoln and their facebook their instagram and running ads to whatever realm. They're working in. But i wanted to prove a thesis to myself that i could create an actual event out of thin air by doing one of my best pieces of advice for everyone on. This does listen to this podcast. I don't think anybody's like really broadcast it out in the world right now the best way to meet somebody and twenty twenty digital world is sending a video via lincoln video message. Most people. Don't do that like that's for my for my company. That's our number. One sales metric is the people we want to meet. Ceo cmo's of some of the bigger companies. It's if you can get them to actually accept your connection request if you actually say hey brandon. Love what you're doing so you're crushing edgar pockets. Notice you're on tiktok would love to show you a couple of tactical things could bring some value to your business because the rest of your inbox. On linked in is a bunch of copy paste s an automated software. Everyone trying to scale their thing videos. it's patterned disruption at scale and. It's just wildly incredible. So what i did was. I sent four hundred videos to real estate professionals in detroit and was able to get about forty people to show up into a an event up in at a wine spot in detroit and presented my thesis on the digital state of real estate and out of that event got about four clients To come out of it as the journey kind of continues to this is october of two thousand. Nineteen covert obviously came around by february march. Ish when covid came around we actually made a pivot and actually started to do podcast. Production work for real estate professionals and financial advisers. I realized personally that one of the best one of my best piece of advice for people for getting started in real estate outside of going on bigger pockets and making action happen is starting podcast. I like podcast for the networking affect and the the effect of everyone has a story and no one's listening and when you're the person who actually provides a platform it you know it. That person tends to love you forever. I say you're not going to be the next joe. Rogan the next gary v the next bigger pockets of the podcast space. But if you wanna learn how to invest in and by apartment buildings in phoenix arizona. It will be wise for you to start a podcast interview. Every single developer in phoenix arizona. Because it's going to be ten times harder for you. Especially in a covert world to sit down for coffee walk their properties but hopping on zoom call for fifteen minutes. It's the not so invasive way of picking someone's brain people don't like to get their brain picked people don't like to get a message saying hey brandon. Love what you're doing and real estate. I love to pick your brain over coffee. Probably not gonna happen but if that same person may be said. Hey brandon got this show. Called the hawaii real estate network would love to have you come and tell your story about the things that you're doing like that person has a fifty percent more of a chance of actually sitting down with you and i from a tactical standpoint. That's what i was hacking and reverse engineering. And that's what we're providing as a service as a media company. Well i'll i'll wrap the podcast thing with this is like the reason why is because when you have a podcast you are now providing value goes like. I want to take you out to coffee and i want like the value. Providing is a three dollar a cup of coffee. I want you to be on my podcasts. So that you can tell your story now. You're providing ego building. You're providing the ability for them to raise money than the fine connect with people to bring them deals potentially so by bringing people into a podcast. Yet you you're providing actual real value and it's kind of cool and unique. Most people are not invited to be a guest on a podcast. It's not a very common thing and so when there's that many we're not talking about trying to like land grant carbone or hakim. Here on a podcast. It's like hey that guy that owns at apartment building down there. He's been doing it now for the last twelve years in this town. He owns a two hundred units. Like get gyna- podcast especially like go do it in his garage. Maybe you'll set up everything. I think that's an interesting strategy. I'm actually trying to get jim carey right now. He lives jim carey. And adam sandler both live within a mile. Abi and like. I will come to your house. I will step in your studio you. You can come down in your under. I don't care the working on those guys. let me. But i think there's such value there and building relationships connections of people one hundred percent. It's a it's a way to exponentially grow your network wide just asking the questions that you genuinely want to know But that's what we were essentially reverse engineering but being self aware. I didn't order to produce a lot of podcasts. At scale i had to hire a lot of people. And i felt like i was becoming an hr rep and micromanaging every stage of the podcast production company. And not doing what i do. Best but at that same exact time. I was actually starting to post a lot on tiktok as a platform. And as i suppose on tiktok testing out a bunch of different pieces. What's working in every single niche. A slowly started to realize one. I really liked it but to i was every single person in my network every that was my business value. I could bring to anyone and quickly. But surely i was on an hour. Three one hour zoom calls a day showing other pro athletes other real estate people other Startup founders business people. Just how to get going and get going on on tiktok and just after having a series combo with my admin's we made a pivot. That's one thing. I'm not scared to do. Is pivot as a business and one gut became much smaller and now we focus on tiktok insulting so we work with larger brands to smaller individuals On helping them launch on tiktok and get going on tiktok whether it's from just strategy or some people we actually do the actual talent and post produce and put out all the content on tiktok account but yeah it sounds wild. It sounds crazy but man tiktok started an internal podcast with with my company called donald on tiktok. That's probably my favorite thing to say to. Everyone right now is don't sleep on tiktok. Yeah yeah i'm To twenty twenty one is miami. I'm emerged in tiktok. People have been hearing on the podcast forever. That i'd give like joking about it and then i was like am i gonna do it then. I'm like oh my phone. Which is i don't want to be obsessed with scrolling for our. The time doesn't mean. I shouldn't be posted and reach people and so i'm going to be hot and heavy. I wouldn't consume though so piece of advice for tiktok is take five to ten hours only consume real estate content on tiktok and the never consumer again understanding the nuances. The ins and outs of what matters what the contract like. How do i post contextual. Tiktok my first six months on tiktok. I did terrible. I went from zero to fifty five followers by posting my best content from lincoln and instagram just downloading and uploading down. I'd never watched anything. Just download upload doing terrible. And then i took five to ten hours understood the ins and outs of of like real estate sports and entrepreneur type of content. In a month. I went from fifty five to eighty two thousand dollars. And what's the secret there. I mean let let's do some consulting right now. Came girl my. I got i got. I think one hundred followers on tiktok right now and i want to grow this now. The reason why. I say for the people like i don't care about this thing. The reason why is a couple of reasons one It's it's fun to teach people stuff to That i wish i would have been on instagram earlier. And today i've raised twenty million dollars in the past year and a half and a lot of people are in my fund But the reason why been able to do that it's gonna take talk. I can i tucker and gm jeb Sorry instagram so. I did it through instagram. But what could i have done. I had a million followers on instagram. I now versus having one hundred and seventy thousand ten times. Whatever on a five times more ability to raise money to find a people to work in my teams to find deals for me. I mean we have the whole bring brennan deal things so in other words. I i- harness instagram. Very heavy right now and it's been a game changer. For me and i wish i would have started earlier and i believe tiktok is the next instagram. And if it is. I need to build that up. So that's just if you're listening. I don't care. Take my turn off this podcast now. There's a reason. Why the logical reason why this might be worth listening to so that said. Do you agree first of all anything you wanna add to that. And then how. What do i consider percent the biggest punchline. I shouldn't have more tiktok followers than you have one instagram right now. I think way bigger than that. That's the number one punchline but to is the like icy tiktok is real estate real estate investors if we all could be putting a time machine and go to the nineteen thirties and we're now in new york city and the opportunity to buy new york city real estate in one thousand nine thirty emptying your bank account your borrowing your money from your parents and your buying it all but i'm telling you this is the same opportunity accept. This real estate is free. And i if i'm posting about real estate. I'm taking away. Your market share of the brandon turner of tiktok if that makes sense and the beauty of of tiktok is one hundred million daily active users just here in the states. Forty percent are over the age of twenty five and now after having this internal podcast with my company called. don't leave on tiktok. it's given me contextual spots of. What's working in different niches. We had a guy come on last week. Who's a financial adviser and he sells a compound interest life insurance type of product. He is legit legitimately revenues. Going from five million to thirty million in this past year. And he's getting thousand inbound leads a week and his average client is thirty nine years old investing eighty five hundred dollars a year into their life insurance product annually and he's literally hired thirty five people spend nine hours a day now on tiktok because it's most important. Kpi like throughout his entire day and people are missing out on that opportunity because your target audience is there. The opportunity is no one's posting as they audit your top ten twenty friends who have a tiktok an audit how many are actually posting. We think of algorithms is just supply and demand of is how many is on the platform and how much content is being put in front of those eyes. And if you compare right now the data points of platform to platform to platform facebook daily average consumption time is twelve minutes a day. Instagram's daily average consumption time twenty two minutes a day and tiktok average daily consumption is eighty five minutes and tiktok has an unlimited infinite for you page. That's where the opportunity is that if you posted fifteen times a day on instagram followers can like brandon. What the hell you're doing too much clogging the pipes tiktok eighty percent of your content is being consumed on the for you page so if you can post five times a day you should if you can post ten times a day you should because like when i post five times versus two times a day i'm ending the day with more followers than not i can show you the data analytics of that posted five times as day two thousand new followers today posted two times this day. Two hundred dollars today because you're putting your valuable content in front of more people and when it comes to real estate and it comes when it comes to just tiktok has an algorithm. I was just on a call two weeks ago. For the public figures strategically as a platform tiktok has adjusted their algorithm to sway. Away from dancing. Tiktok has been known like it's been generalised as a platform is why would i go. There is money. Teenagers dancing there. They did not want to be generalized as that strategically adjusted their algorithm to more on education on store compelling storytelling type of content. I think that's hilarious. Like your job is to find all the dancers and downgrade their stuff. I think that. I don't think there's nothing wrong with the dancing. I think that your for you page is gonna look like whatever you consume. The thing that tiktok has done better than any platform is their algorithm has created this unlimited for you stream of content that is so wildly tailored to the things that you like. You do watch. Four girls do dances uranium. Watch it from top to bottom. You're going to feel a lot more of that in your feet if you watch real estate three times four times five times a day different. That's what you're gonna see all day in which which is exactly the danger of tectonics consumer we've been talking about is that it knows you and it knows exactly what you want. And it gives you amazing bits of vat over and over and over an unlimited amount designed to hook you and keep you coming back and back. So that's the danger as a user and at a creator it is a nihil opportunity. It's it's it's. I don't know if you remember five years ago and instagram win. Our our timelines went from seeing everything in chronological order to than a snap of a finger. It literally went to stagnated type of content. That's the the opportunity is right now. We're in the phase of seeing everything in chronological order like on instagram. When you can grow organically what's going to happen in the next eight to twelve months when there is a mass exodus of there's already people are hundred million people third the united states like it's happened so there's no questioning that but when everyone starts actually posting an people actually realize what's happening there it's like my two hundred. Twenty thousand followers are going to be more valuable a year from now than they are today. If that makes sense it's just back to real estate. So let's say you're listening to the bigger pockets podcast. You don't really like that. Tiktok snapchat stuff but you hear akeem talk and he seems like a smart guy okay. Maybe i'll give tiktok a chance. But i don't want to get stuck into watching dancing videos. How do they know who they should be. Following and what type of content is worth consuming. If you wanna learn about real estate. I would the guys. I follow his. Mikey taylor former professional skater. Yep check out his tiktok he. He's got over two hundred thousand. I just had my podcast. He runs a private equity commun- capital someone who raises capital model. His style of content. He's putting out but also consume his content. He's a very smart dude. Knows what he's talking about. When it comes to real estate. I would follow people within that type of round i would follow. Wind brandon starts posting his account. I i put out. Maybe one every three weeks some type of real estate type of content. So i mean. I wouldn't i wouldn't follow me for real estate Not gonna plug myself for that. But i genuinely believe that you type in hashtag real estate one. Learn for yourself because there's a lot of people in there who are doing really good who don't know what they're talking about and that's another opportunity for guys like you brandon like david to like watch out real quick the experts here essentially 'cause that's exactly what's going to happen when you guys come to the platform because everyone knows you talk but you're not there yet if that makes sense so that's why i was asking that question is if you're vulnerable because you don't know a ton about real stay and there's this really good-looking twenty five million you. I can teach you how to make millions. It quickly turns into. I follow this person thinking. I'm getting an education but all you're getting into it's a funnel where someone's going to upsell you on some program you. I like what you said is it shouldn't be the only place you go to for real estate. Investing you kind of have to know a little bit about it outside of that and then find the people that are giving you the same type of education and content when you're there so that you don't get sucked into the. I bought a house and rent out. Rooms my friends. And now i am a real estate god and you should be following me. And they're giving you bad advice. I would go as far as saying this. If you're a new investor just consume on bigger pockets. i would use tiktok right now. i would say it's dangerous because that can happen very fast. it's more advantageous. If you're a creator and you already are doing things in the or your documenting your journey in the real estate space. I wouldn't took. I only give advice that i take. I do not consume talk content at all like zero. The the fifteen seconds. I have after i post a video and its uploading is like the fifteen seconds out consumed before my video comes up and then i just live in the comments all day and i think that that's cool. I don't consume like because of that danger of you will be. You will get put down. Funnel you will get sold some type of coaching product. But if you are a good genuine type of person only that's between you and god at the end of the day put out good content. Because you're gonna get found. I think it's an accelerate to the truth. It'll be an accelerated that you're a snake oil salesman or excel putting out valuable real estate content and give opportunities of people to actually work with you. Here's another another reason Why i think creating com again. People probably go. Why would i not going to go. Raise a bunch of money. Necessarily right now and i'm not. I'm not that good at talking on camera. But just throw this out to people like your ability to communicate like everyone listening. Your ability to communicate is directly proportional to your level of success in life. I've really really believed that people who are really now are there. Are there people who are not going to communicate successful. Yes of course but by and large people. I know that are most successful. Tend to be good at communicating their points. They're not always wild and crazy. Like i might be on a tiktok video. But they can present their points. In a way that makes sense it gets other people on board. Gets people fired up. That's how you employ. That's how you get t members you fire people around you. It affects every area of your life from dating to a real estate to business to so. If you're posting on tiktok you're going to suck at it. Go watch my early bigger pocket videos on a bigger youtube channel. They're horrible. I'm stroking my cat literally in my hands. And i'm sitting on a chair slouching and i'm like whispering real estate exactly it's terrible yep and i don't know anything but you know what i have you post on tiktok every. It's a very quick way to get your reps in to communicate your points and then you get better and better at so then when you're sitting at a meeting with a private lender and the guy says well i don't really understand what you're doing with this whole burr thing you well let me tell you about the birth strategy and you've already had your elevator pitch perfected on tiktok and on instagram or wherever it is you're putting out content so some people if they don't think they're creative content you should be a creative content because that's how you You know what my best unlock was for content. Was that after. Having a child it was legacy. Like i care about the audience. 'cause i want to bring value to the audience but to be as honest as god honest as possible. I could care less. I'm thinking about my kids. My kids kids kids kids kids and their kids because our grandparents our parents never had this opportunity like right. Now i'm waving. Hi lucy because that's my daughter's name because one day she will watch this. I guarantee it because if you could watch your parents on every podcast on or your grandparents every podcasts. They're on or their great great great great great great grandparents and every show. Everyone's on they put out. You would watch and rewatch and rewatch every second of it. So when you're putting out content now think about everyone else like this. How i put my blinders on with everybody else. Because i don't care because the legacy you guys you guys are leaving. You're leaving a very wildly. Pr insecure version of yourself. That you're great. Great great great. Great grandkids will never know who the real. You're so i say just like gary v's document don't create style. I love it because it's documentary johnny. Because you're gonna be. You're leaving lessons for your kids and your great great great great grandkids that we could never leave before. I get the chills. Every time i say that because i know for a fact if i could see my great grandpa was doing when he was twenty eight years old. I would argue that. What i would do all day trying to learn more about myself to goldman but that will be unlock to now being so wildly unemotional about every piece of content. You put out. I could care less if this gets twelve us because my kids are gonna watch it. That's the punchline. All right well that was. That was awesome I we can talk about six acts of all day. But i want to move on to the last segment of our show and this is our famous all right so famous for the part of the show. We ask every guest the same for questions. You've heard our show before you know what's coming Zakim let's get to you though. Real estate related books i questioned the famous for. What's your current or all time favorite real estate related book honestly the oh gee. The original blue book of the book on rental property investing. I have extensive notes. I've given it to so many. I've given that book to fifteen probably fifteen different. People have gifted that book to nfl players. I've given to copy my notes on that book giving it to so many different people because it is that powerful of a book of. I'm just getting started. Just i was flipping houses with my ex done flipping houses of my ex. I know i wanted to real estate. Where do i go in real estate. Here's the seven five or x. Amount of spots i could get into. And here's an actual real life practical deep dive of how to get started. That was that's still to this day. My my my best favorite book. That's awesome man appreciate that. What's the link for that book. Bigger pockets dot dotcoms rental book. Thank and so book. Yeah thomas real estate. Investing book in the world be sadly no longer blue. Now actually change the cover and now it's like a white but it got a little blue on it. Gotcha gotcha gotcha. Yeah i know that i. I miss the blue action. But i design the blue on on my on myself like and i'm not a designers have like a good-looking cover. That's much better anyway. Number two david said can when the power ranger goes to the white power arrangements. A better power ranger i guess so. You're huge power ranger fan so that makes all right hockey. My question is what's your favorite business book. The go giver bob burrow. Yeah oh man. That's one of my dad's. I'll probably read that twice a year. Maybe i love it. it's It's my thesis on life. It's such a quick and easy. Read but i think it means so much. I think a lot of people don't understand giving what your intentions are behind giving you give with no expectations and what can giving do as business. Business tactic at the end of the day. Okay cool what are some of your hobbies. Ooh playing with my daughter and playing the saxophone saxophone really my biggest. Besides my used car in the nfl was an auto sacks. It was like two or three grand. I always wanted to play. The drums and piano growing up can ever afford a saxophone. And that was probably my one of my first purchases in the guy. I lived with when i first got to. The league was really good at the sax and every day when we we got home we literally just put on some music on youtube but it was kenny g. or whether it was something that was new and tried to play like sacks behind it and then when i left the cardinals and went to the lion's i started actually get like lessons In detroit. that's that's awesome man. Miracle all right well why Last question of the day. Then what do you think separates successful real estate investors. Those who give up fail or never get started was thinking about this one and honestly. I think it's following up the best piece of advice i've ever gotten from any one is the fortune is in the follow up. I think we're presented hundreds if not thousands of opportunities every single day whether it's an i always used the example of at the end of your episodes like i've dmz guests that you had on your show to see if i can get a conversation with them to learn more about them because they say if you want to hear more about me shoot me a text on so and so reach out to me on this or this email were that but how many times are we actually doing that. When we're listened to that episode man. It'd be really cool to actually talk to that person. Do we actually follow up. How many business cards that we follow. Honey stacks do we really have. I think that's where that separates a lot of people. Some people like the idea of going to networking events and doing all that type of stuff. But are you actually going to follow up and take action well on that vein for people that want to follow up with you. Where can they find out more about you. My website is perspective. Global media dot com Outside of that linked in is a great place just hakim keen first and last name. The social tiktok is hard because it's it's accelerating so fast. It's hard for me to give you follow me on tiktok. You're not you can't message people yet on tiktok unless they both follow each other which is kind of something that they they need to figure out but linked is probably the greatest place To reach out and find awesome man. Well appreciate having you on the show today. It was phenomenal. I love the advice on everything we talked about. We got like four hundred bucks to right now. A bunch of teachers to make so go show. Thank you for being here today. Brand david wildly enjoyed the show. Thank you so much for having me. I really appreciate it. You great job. This is david greene for brandon. The og investing book turner signing off. You're listening to a bigger pockets. Radio simplifying real estate for investors large and small. If you're here looking to learn about real estate investing without all the height you're in the right place should join the millions of others who have benefited from bigger pockets dot com your home for real estate investing online.
Many worries, but signs of optimism, in new poll numbers
"Welcome to the lead for beat the press. I'm carrying happy Monday. Everyone Monday Thursday zoom day. It's definitely a day. It is at least daytime. Notwithstanding the Pajama Pants. I may or may not be wearing but no matter what day it is in a time. When does it really matter? Another day brings more unfolding of the physical and mental and economic toll that the pandemic is having upon the nation as many in the country. Mark Their first full month of lockdown and a new poll from Monmouth University. Finds that people are feeling the effects of all of this much more than they were when that month began according to the new survey in the past three weeks the share of Americans saying the viruses having a major impact on their lives is up. Nine points up to sixty two percents in the share. Who say they are very worried about someone in their family? Becoming very ill from the disease is up twelve points in the last three weeks now. At fifty percent here are some of the other findings of this new monmouth university. Poll about one in four Americans personally know somebody who is contracted corona virus about forty percent. Say They've lost income as a result of the virus and about thirty percent. Say someone in their household has been laid off about half say. They're having trouble finding all of the supplies that they need a third say their daily life is less healthy. Meaning WHAT THEY EAT? And how much exercise? A QUARTER SAY. They are experiencing more feelings of loneliness and majority fifty. Five percent of Americans say their daily level of stress has gone up but there is good news in between all of that otherwise grim sounding data because despite all of that Americans remain very hopeful that they are going to be able to bounce back when it's all over first of all the share in this whole saying that they're actively struggling with their current financial situation. It's never good news. It's about a quarter but that quarter is the same as last month and it's actually comparable to the share. That said the same thing this time last year and the year before in seven in ten Americans say they are optimistic that they and their families are going to be able to get back to normal after the pandemic is over. Of course all of that is subject to change as the lockdown and the infections and on and on but at least for now even though we all may be a little bit more anxious a little bit less secure and maybe a little less likely to fit into pants with buttons on them. We've still got hope and that matters. That's good for us if you'd like to hear more of this free audio briefing. You can always download us on your favorite podcast APP. Hey it's crazy this week on my podcast. Wise is happening. I'LL BE TALKING WITH JOHN. Berry author of the book the Great Influenza about the last global pandemic we analyze what city is dead in nineteen thousand nine hundred and found that those cities which intervened early at a much better experience at the very least in terms of flattening the curb. If the Inter being too late the viruses already widely disseminated in your community and no intervention is GonNa have any effect if the enemy is already inside the home. It doesn't do you any good to lock the door. That's this week on. Why is this happening search for? Why is this happening? Wherever you're listening right now and subscribe.