20 Burst results for "Mike Mckee"

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:31 min | Last month

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Global economics and policy editor Mike McKee as usual. So the fed first meets and then the job report comes a couple of days later. We know what the fed is going to do pretty much in the coming week, right? We do. We don't know what they're going to do after that. And to answer the question you didn't ask yet that everybody will ask me before that is will the fed see the jobs numbers before they meet and know they will not. So they'll be as surprised as all of us. Friday when the jobs numbers come out. And that's going to be the interesting dynamic here. Jay Powell say about the future path of interest rates, two days before a report that could influence the future path of interest rates. So it's going to be an interesting interesting news conference from him. Okay, so remind to everybody the linkage between fed policy and jobs. Keeping full employment is one of their mandates. The other mandate is price keeping price stability. Price stability. And those are pretty closely linked. The price stability target is, as everybody knows, 2% as measured by the personal consumption expenditures indicator. Full employment mandate is not defined. It's kind of when you see it, the fed tends to think it's around 4%. So at 3.5% right now, we're below that. Forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the October payrolls as it will tick up to 3.6%, but still very low, still very strong labor market that suggests people have money to spend and they're spending it and the feds trying to bring demand down in order to bring prices down, and that generally means you end up with higher unemployment as companies produce less stuff they need fewer people. And that dynamic hasn't kicked in yet, except perhaps in the real estate industry. Okay, but they also have to pay them when all those people are working. And paying people money, that's inflationary, right? I forgot that. Those higher wages. Well, it's the higher wages. It's when employees start to ask for more money because of inflation is high that the fed gets worried. Because then it starts a circular problem for them. And so they want to get ahead of that. Surveys show that people think that inflation is still mostly contained. Their views are, it's risen a little bit. And so the fed is pretty much certain that it wants to do at least one more 75 basis point move because they want to try to get ahead of that. They want to convince us, by the way, is three quarters of a half. They want to get ahead of any kind of wage price spiral and let people know that they are on the job. Is there evidence of, is there a threat of a wage price spiral that we like we saw on the 70s? We haven't seen anything like that yet. And the best guess is we won't have anything like the 1970s. For one thing you don't have large pattern union contracts as you did then where one union in an industry gets a new contract with higher wages and everybody else has to match it. So that will help hold down that whole issue, but even now we're seeing 5, 6, 7% raises over the last two years, earnings rising by that much. And while that's great for workers, then companies have to make that up somehow. So they raise their prices. The problem is is that they haven't been able to find workers. There is a supply problem of labor. And so that means that a, they're much less interested in letting people go, which relates to the jobs report and B, they've had to pay up to get them. And now the question is, does the labor market stabilize? Do they find enough people that they can they don't have to keep paying more? And the only way they can the fed can affect that is by reducing demand. The higher rates they are having an impact and slowing things down, certainly in housing. Certainly in housing, housing basically kind of in a recession. Residential investment in the third quarter, according to the GDP report from last week, fell by 26%. That is the kind of numbers we saw in the great financial crisis when housing all collapsed and back in the early 1990s. It's a sector that is in deep trouble for right now. It's cyclical though. We know that it comes worse perhaps right now than it has been in a while, but at some point there will be more demand for housing and it'll pick back up again, but right now it's leading the way down. Okay, so I keep asking this question, but do they have to torpedo employment to get to their goal of bringing inflation down? Well, at the same time, I don't know. Would that employment full employment goal too? To stick with your metaphor, they don't need they don't necessarily need to torpedo employment. They can just let a little air out of the boat, but the problem is you don't know when you've actually successfully done that. Bloomberg global economics and policy editor

fed Mike McKee Jay Powell Bloomberg
"mike mckee" Discussed on TuneInPOC

TuneInPOC

03:35 min | Last month

"mike mckee" Discussed on TuneInPOC

"I wished all our listeners and viewers, Mike McKee could see your desk where you just really holistically bring in all of the current research of our 12 Federal Reserve banks. Mike McKee are the PhDs at the fed's studying the impact of the new employers, Amazon target, Costco, the rest of them. Are they taking into account the new kind of labor that we're seeing in online warehouses? Oh yeah, that's become over the last couple of years is significant change in the labor force. We've seen, for example, department store employment go down employment in traditional stores for retailers has changed a lot and a lot more people have ended up in the warehousing and transportation areas. And one interesting thing that we may see come January when we get the January employment figures is seasonally, we expect people to be laid off from those warehouse and transportation jobs after Christmas. And that may not happen this year. So we may see a real shift in the composition of the labor force in January that will be make it a little harder to interpret. Thank you, sir. Looking ahead to payrolls Friday, Mike McKee of course, leading our coverage, just a couple of days away. Tom and your point on wages. I go back to that blog piece that essay from Neil kashkari, the Minneapolis fed president within that. This is a really well rounded point of view. And I think everyone should take a read of it. He talks about ways negotiations and long-term wage agreements and one company he spoke to reported that prior to the pandemic, it would typically sign three to 5 year contracts at a 3% annual wage increase. Now Tom, that contract, those negotiations sent it around numbers like 7 to 10% increases. And that's for him, a stark example of how even transitory high inflation could lead to a sustained increase in inflation. Just some insight into how the fed doves point of view is evolving in real time. You've absolutely nailed John February March and maybe even in April of this year. And the way I would frame it, John, is the minimum wage study that Paul Sweeney and I discussed yesterday on our other platform, John, I'm Bloomberg radio John, you could hear that in the 9 o'clock hour on Bloomberg radio. And what we addressed is the minimum wage right now calculated from Harry Truman would be $24 an hour. How rapidly are we going to get there? Tell him that's what the earpiece is for in the 9 o'clock hour on Bloomberg TV. I'm just listening to Bloomberg radio at the same time. I'll take the notes. TV, taking notes, Bloomberg, radio, Tom. Coffin, making noises in the background. Paul Sweeney making sense from New York City. This is Bloomberg. The Alzheimer's association and the ad council present the story of Tom and Levi. Thomas the smartest man I know. He's been a professor at two major universities been a teacher for over 40 years. One day, he told me that he was having problems in his classes. I think one of the students had asked the question and he didn't remember the answer. I also noticed that he was letting his class out earlier than they were supposed to let out. And he was telling them that he was doing it as a favor to them, but I think in reality he just wanted to give out of there. I was really starting to worry 'cause I saw something that's wrong. Levi and I talked about how it would change in our lives. But he was there beside me at my love for him was just a man.

Mike McKee fed Bloomberg Paul Sweeney Neil kashkari Tom Costco John Amazon Minneapolis Alzheimer's association Harry Truman ad council Levi New York City Thomas
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:03 min | 2 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Is your Bloomberg business flash. Hey Doug, thank you so much for that. A business flash really appreciate it. Well, I mentioned that each and every Friday, Katie greifeld has a newsletter come out. It's called the weekly fix. This week you wrote about a lot, including the potential of the U.S. going into a recession the way that Powell addressed that on Wednesday. But you also wrote about bonds. Yeah, I try to pay some lip service to other parts of the fixed income market. If I wanted to, if I was left to my own devices, I would probably write 1600 words straight on just what treasuries did. But there are some interesting credit stories out there and I was crunching some numbers, which is very difficult for me. I'm not a really good user of excel or even the terminal. But you love writing about bonds. Oh, I love it. Yeah, I have a lot of really patient strategists that I'm Friends with who helped me do things. But one of the numbers I came across this week was inspired by basically listening to Michael Collins. He's a portfolio manager over at pgim. He was giving an interview on Bloomberg television where he said that we're seeing bonds across the board across all our portfolios, trading at big discounts to par. And as you know, as long as they don't default, they end up back at par. So I went on a little journey to find out actually, if you look at the U.S. investment grade bond market. Is it a bargain bin? Yes, it's crazy about 88% of all the bonds in a Bloomberg index of investment grade bonds are trading below par. And if you look at that number, if you run that exercise this time last year, that number was just 4%. So it really speaks to this widespread this huge magnitude of a drawdown that we've seen across the fixed income spectrum, but particularly again, in blue chip bonds. So what does that mean for investors right now? Is it that means you've lost money? But does it also mean that if you're looking to get in, now could be a good time? If you're a brave soul for sure, now would be the time. Again, PJ made that point. He said Michael Collins, again, have portfolio manager at the firm that you have this really positive long-term opportunity and income, which we haven't had in well over a decade. So there are some brave souls, some dip buyers in the bond market out there. But at the same time, we're getting some pretty scary warnings about the corporate default rated super low right now, but you have the likes of UBS, Barclays warning that a wave of defaults is coming. Okay, can we talk about fed chair Jay Powell? Mike McKee's question. I would like to. I mean, it was what I teased, and then you told me during the break, it's not what you wanted to talk about. Well, you know, but I'm putting that man a lot this week, not Mike McKee Jerome house specifically. But to rewind back to Wednesday, what's your own pal set again? Like maybe a key told us, actually. I think it was yesterday. You're never going to hear the fed forecast a recession. It's just not something that they would do, but Jerome Powell did say no one knows whether this process referring to of course they're very aggressive rate hikes, whether that's going to lead to recession or if so, how significant the recession would be and he paired that by saying the chances of a soft landing likely to diminish to the extent that policy needs to be more restrictive or restrictive for longer. So that R word. None the less we're committed to getting inflation. So if you boil that all down, I think the message is pretty clear that they're going to sacrifice growth to get inflation again back down to 2%, which is a pretty far away at this point. I love this comment from seeing the shot of principal. She said that that Central Bank speak for recession. Okay, that's not a good thing, especially when we're seeing it play out around the globe and not just here in the U.S.. Okay, what else do you want to talk inflation, expectations? We could talk inflation expectations. I got a little bit schooled by Jason Blum. He's over at invesco. I was having a casual chat with him. We were talking about break even. As one does in a casual chat. Of course, we're talking about break-even inflation expectations, and he asked me, have you ever actually charted tips break evens versus actual inflation? And I had to say no, I haven't done that actually, Jason. But the point being is actually it's a horrendous forecaster. Inflation expectations, if you compare it to CPI year over year, it's breaking apart. It's not a really clean, correlation there. So that's interesting to think about when you think about how people will say that the fed really cares about inflation expectations. The fed themselves, the policymakers there saying that they really care about inflation expectations. And they do because that informs how people behave, that shapes reality that we live in. But again, if you actually look at inflation expectations versus the data, it's pretty terrible forecaster. Believe it or not, there are people out there who haven't signed up for the weekly fix. Unbelievable. How do they do it? So this is embarrassing. I don't know how you do it online, but if you're a lucky person who has a Bloomberg terminal, you can go to the weekly fix and click subscribe. On the upper left hand. That's how I would do it. Okay. Yeah. Are you subscribed? You better be. Does it count as being subscribed when you forward it to me every Friday? No, that is not a subscription. I need you to subscribe and I need you to open it from your inbox specifically every single morning. And if you could click all of the links in it too, that would help me out. So I'm guessing there's some sort of metric here that is important to you. I'll give it away. Okay, hey, before we go, what didn't make the newsletter that was interesting to you this week? Oh my gosh, there was so much. I wanted to talk about the Citrix debt deal. I feel like we haven't been watching one single issuers debt drama like that for a long time and just goes to show that it's getting harder to tap the primary markets right now. Everyone's nervous underwriters too are losing a lot of money. That's Katie greifeld. She is my colleague, get Bloomberg quick take and also at Bloomberg business week of radio, she's anchoring this afternoon. Co host BTF IQ on Bloomberg TV as well. In a Bloomberg news senior markets reporter. Sign up for the weekly fix. Let's get the world of national

Bloomberg Katie greifeld Michael Collins Jay Powell Mike McKee U.S. Mike McKee Jerome Jerome Powell Powell fed Doug Jason Blum UBS Barclays invesco Central Bank Jason
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:13 min | 3 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"On Bloomberg radio. In this retail sales Wednesday, that's what TK's calling it. Mike McKee is going to break down that number for you in just a moment. Futures going into it down 8 cents of 1% on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ 100 down by one full percentage point with the auto by 9 basis points. Call it ten basis points higher now with your economic data, it's Mike McKee. Good morning, John and Kayleigh, the fed is on the phone for you. You need to go shopping because retail sales come in flat for the month of July, no change in the retail sales figures overall. And the retail sales control group, that one hasn't come in yet, but ex autos up four tenths of 8%. And that is down from a 1% move prior month. And X autos and gas up 7 tenths. So I'm guessing and I'm just going to look quickly here that gasoline played a big role in this. Gasoline stations down 1.8% and we did see prices fall during the month and retail sales are calculated in dollar terms. So overall, that is good news, motor vehicles were down 1.6%. John, we'll talk a little bit about that on the open coming up. Furniture and home builders up just two tenths of a percent after a bigger gain last month. So it looks like reasonably healthy in some areas, building materials still up one and a half percent when we saw those good results from Home Depot the other day. Grocery stores just two tenths higher and clothing and accessories stores. These are the people who are not buying the balenciagas because they were down 6 tenths of a percent. Tom Keane helped out though, food services and drinking places up a tenth just a tenth time. You got more work to do. Food service and drinking places features down 9 cents or 1% Mike on the S&P and then ask that 100 down one four percentage point in the bond market. Seeing a bit of response to this. So the front end now up by 11 basis points to three 36 on a ten year yield by ten basis points to about two 90. Mike, I think the initial knee jerk reaction here is to trade on the figure X gas for good reason as you just pointed out. That comes in with a decent upside surprise, the control group as well a decent upside surprise. Mike, is that the right way of looking at this number, strip out the gas figure, month over month? Yeah, I think that's what the market is doing. The retail control figure, which takes out gasoline and autos and home improvement stuff is up 8 tenths of 8%. Those go into GDP and other areas. And of course, gasoline prices fell significantly. But the retail control group, which is basically all the other stuff that people buy was up. Reasonably well, the prior month had been at 8 tenths revised down to 7 tenths, but still the two months together show Americans still were shopping and that's why I think you're getting the higher yield reaction because people are thinking the economy may be a bit stronger. Of course, that means more work for the fed. Hi, Mike. Looking forward to your conference in the next day. We'll break this down. I'm Bloomberg TV as we run towards the open and bow Tom. Look at yields up 11 basis points on a two year on a ten year up ten basis points and this is what the street was focused on. The retail sales number ex gas because of what's happened with gas prices over the last month or so time. And we've got a decent upside surprise there. We have very quickly before steam guests, two ten spread reimbursed on a negative 47 basis points not through negative 50, but nevertheless that bears watching the real yield is a little bit of a higher yield and dollar resiliency dollar strength here as well. Michael dotted joins us, chief economist and macro strategist at mcam partners and what's wonderful about his work is how he synthesizes the economic view into the equity belief. Michael, I'm not going to mince words in my umpteen years of doing this. I've never seen the raging debate about the stock market linked to the mysteries of our economy. Do you feel the same way? Do you see record uncertainty out there? Well, Tom, one of the last times I was on in the dark days of mid June. One of my messages for your retail investors was not to get to negative, even though the S&P 500 was down almost 24% and the reason for that was it's notoriously difficult, probably impossible to time market bottoms. And what we were seeing with the big decline in equity markets in the first 6 months of the year was mostly a rate shock, the ten year yield going from one and a half to almost three and a half percent. But we're well off the highs in terms of the ten year treasury yield, even though the rates bumped up today with a good data. And the stock market is now up 17 plus percent from the lows. So the first 6 months of the year, the equity market decline really wasn't about negative GDP or recession or a big earnings crash. It was about a valuation adjustment as the ten year yield moved up. And that adjustment is now mostly in the rearview mirror. I look Michael at the view forward in the view forwards

Mike McKee Bloomberg radio Mike Tom Keane Kayleigh S fed John Bloomberg TV Home Depot mcam partners Tom
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:05 min | 4 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"So I just like to describe this to you guys because I'm sitting here on my desk. Just before 10 o'clock this morning, digging into the jobs report and Katie comes running upstairs. She's in this amazing mood. And I'm like, Katie, what is going on? And she said, I'm so excited. It's jobs day. Yeah. To talk about it. Yeah. And I'm like, you're right. And you told me about this tweet that you had sent, which I thought made a really good point, and you kind of referred to it just now. Okay. When we were. The tweet is, okay, we're not in a recession. I want to get into this in the 4 p.m.. We're not in a recession now, perhaps, but the reason why good news is bad news and I hate that phrase is because, I mean, this isn't what the fed wants to see. This just means they're going to have to hike more for longer to get things under control when you think about them trying to crush demand or cool off demand is maybe a more polite way to say it. So this ultimately just means that there's economic pain to come. Yeah, and that's what I was getting at with Mike McKee, my question to Mike McKee earlier. And he made the good point that, look, yes, you're right, it's kind of a puzzling equity market reaction. He said, you know, how to traders are in the Hamptons today. But there's also a lot of data that comes between now and September. We also do here later this month from fed officials when they're in Jackson hole. So there's a lot that can happen between now and then, but for now, this is not what the fed wants to see. And you know that Mike McKee is probably going to be in Jackson hole with an amazing hat. I just pictured amazing hat. I want him to, is he going to let I'll just go, I'll carry his luggage. I'll go there. He's going to be fly fishing if he has times time to do it. And look what Becky Franklin told us from ManpowerGroup. She said, we're not seeing any softening right now. That's the thing. In this data to suggest that the data you can get between anecdotal examples of layoffs, like Robinhood laying off, you know, 30% of the company. So when you think about the data is still left to come between now and the next meeting, is there anything to suggest that it's going to cool probably not? This is why you're so excited today because we can talk about this. It's good stuff. You're listening to a Bloomberg businessweek and this is Bloomberg radio. Let's get to Washington D.C. now for world

Mike McKee Katie fed Jackson Hamptons Becky Franklin Bloomberg businessweek Bloomberg Washington D.C.
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:49 min | 4 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You can eat pasta sauce because you have acid reflux. I have debilitating acid reflux. Is it okay for me to talk about it? Yeah. Talk about it at work. Talk about it constantly all the time. To anyone that will listen. I know. The bigger issue, I mean, listen, I will fight through the pain for tomato sauce. The bigger issue. Can we slip you a couple times or something? And you can enjoy it. Have you seen my desk? No, I haven't. I have a lot of anticipation over there. I'm so sorry. I can't eat oranges I would eat two oranges a day in college. I love oranges. I can't tell you how much I love it. We're gonna get through this together. We're gonna get you to a place where you can enjoy the things you want coffee. Did you want to do actual news here? Yeah, I want to do a little notion. What I want to talk about is what you said about the jobs numbers tomorrow. That payrolls figure. And what our conversation with Mike McKee was all about just about an hour ago. I could have talked to Mike for longer. I love that man. I do too. And it's great that we get him here at Bloomberg news to tap into his wealth of super international economics and policy. And he gets it once a month. I know. He's going to be, you go home, he gets a ton of sleep tonight. He's got to wake up early and he's got to be ready for that payrolls figure. I would also say his Super Bowl is any time there's a fed policy meeting. Yeah. Actually, he has a lot of data points. Oh yeah, him and DCI those shots. Him in the room, taking Jerome Powell to task. It's pretty cool. He's just asking, he's just asking the good questions, Katie. Oh, man. What a guy. Okay, so let's talk about these payrolls tomorrow. We're expecting 250,000, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That'll be down from 372,000. We got the prior month. But Katie has Mike McKee said, this is exactly what the fed wants to see a slowing, right? So the big question is what happens if there's a big hit or a big mess? We're going to find out very, very soon actually. You're listening to Bloomberg business week Tim stanik and kitty greifeld on Bloomberg radio. Let's get

Mike McKee Jerome Powell Bloomberg news DCI Mike Katie Super Bowl Bloomberg fed Tim stanik kitty greifeld Bloomberg radio
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:44 min | 4 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You should see how fast Mike McKee runs into the studio to get ready to break these economic data points. It's just getting ready. Futures up 6 tenths of 1% on the S&P on the NASDAQ by about 7 cents of 1%. Mike knew the data would come out as a few seconds after 8 30 Eastern Time. It's out now. Mike, you've got the numbers in front of you. I don't. I'm having trouble saw signing into the machine. Break him down, Mike. All right. You break them down and I will try to figure out why this is not working. Housing starts month on month. Down about 2%, Mike, we were looking for a meeting estimate of two percentage points positive. We got negative two. Building permits month on month, we were looking for negative 2.7%. We've got negative zero point 6%. So making that what you will, Mike, housing starts just a little worse than expected. And I guess building permits a little better than expected. Yeah, but the building permits are down and that's kind of the overall question here is how long our builder is going to be able to expand, given the fact that demand seems to be falling off rather rapidly. So with building permits down, it does suggest that we're going to be slowing down and the question which will be answered later this week tomorrow actually with an existing home sales is when does all this have an impact on prices. Prices have been going up no matter what, which surprises people given the fact that mortgages are higher. And that is feeding into CPI and PCE and causing inflation on the core level to rise. So the question is, can we get that down, when does that start to go down? When do the higher mortgage rates and affordability start to impact the markets. But we did see a really, really bad drop in the home builders index yesterday. They're getting pessimistic, and you can see it in this data today. Mike, what's the nighttime typically between house prices coming down and rental prices getting hit? What's the relationship there? Well, it's kind of difficult. What the government does is they ask you what you think your house would rent for. And that's how they try to figure out what the cost of housing is. It's out rent prices are obviously available and we see rent prices going up, but you don't move every week. So you don't really notice the changes in the same way you do with gasoline. So it takes a while. It can take 6, 9 months to get into the system. And so the estimates are we're going to see this kind of change going forward for some months in housing. Now, we'll see other things maybe go down, but housing will still be contributing to inflation for a while. Well, to your point, Mike, on the home builder sentiment data that we got yesterday, the lowest reading since May of 2020 and the chairman of the NHD this quote to me just is fantastic. Production bottlenecks rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home. Are you surprised with how quickly things have deteriorated and housing sector that was so hot for so long? Not really. I mean, we saw mortgage rates rise, perhaps faster than anybody anticipated because they've been low for a very long time. And then they've jumped to rates we haven't seen in a while. And so the builders are looking out there and they're seeing demand fall off and we have seen the mortgages go down mortgage applications go down quite a bit. Now the next step is watch the employment numbers and we'll watch construction workers. If they start to lose their jobs, that would be the first sort of indication that higher interest rates are pushing up on unemployment and that's going to be key for the fed. The event you went to an Idaho is a precursor for Jackson hole. Link your Idaho event to what we may see the end of August injection. Well, the issue is really ejection hole. What is Jay Powell say? And that's going to depend a lot on the data. The general feeling at the Rocky Mountain summit in Idaho was that the CEOs and economists who were there really didn't know what's going on. They have a bad feeling about things, but the data are inconclusive because jobs have been strong. There's a mix between GDP and GDI gross domestic income that doesn't really give a clear picture of how the economy is doing. And yet inflation remains higher. Surprises to the upside. So the question is, what is Jay Powell say? And he probably is going to write his speech at the last minute given that we are waiting on the plane more. Even more inflation and jobs data. On the plane time. And give you a taste about the decision in September and The Wall Street Journal. Tom will be sitting next to him helping him. I did that with Corona once. How did that work out? I said, mister Corona picked him a room carpet. That's where we went. PH is up 7 cents to a better morning again. 8 cents or 1% on the NASDAQ 100. This is a great joy in perfectly time. He is Mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics and what you need to know in the absolute depth of O 8 O 9 world coming to an end GDP, doctor sandy was a lone voice saying there will be a recovery and we will get back to three ish and four ish GDP. And yes, there was volatility in quarter to quarter noise, but it was remarkable how he said patience will recover. Doctor sandy joins us this morning, Mark. Just as simple as I can. There's a lot of gloom out there, John talks about a mutual fund manager survey. You know the economic data as well as is anybody, can you look out to better times?

Mike Mike McKee Jay Powell NHD Idaho S mister Corona Rocky Mountain fed Jackson The Wall Street Journal Mark zandi Corona
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:17 min | 6 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Equity stand about 1.9% on a S&P on the NASDAQ down by 2.2% waiting for some economic data in the United States of America jobless claims coming any moment now which is Mike McKee It means he Mike McKee's ran from Washington D.C. to New York to jump into the studio That's amazing It's just incredible time Not for words Morning Mike Good morning John Well we're back in that situation where every data point counts and bad news is bad news as we try to figure out whether the fed does 25 or 50 or 75 at the next meetings And we've got some numbers here that will be interesting to the fed but don't look like they're going to make a lot of difference Jobless claims numbers come in Surprisingly unchanged from last week There are two 29 initially reported as two 29 last week It's actually was two 31 so you end up with a decline in jobless claims The fed is looking to see if that's a harbinger of if claims are a harbinger of softness in the labor force Apparently not yet Housing starts and building permits Jay Powell said yesterday the fed's rate increases are having an impact on housing and boy did they down 14% 14.4% last month although the prior month was in April revised from a two tenths decline to a 5 and a half percent gain So maybe we're about 9 percent difference Building permits though fall 7% after a 3% decline so building permits are falling It does look like builders are starting to pull back and we did see that in the builders survey yesterday Finally we've got the Philly fed number out there People watching these regional feds to see how business is going around the country Not so good in Philly down 3.3 Bundle of joy Yeah I'm a bundle of joy Which is down from 2.6 the month before So problem for the fed in that the Philly fed suggests manufacturing lightning up housing starts certainly being affected But still nothing in the jobless claims numbers As somebody put it today anec data that companies are starting to announce layoffs but at this point we're not seeing a lot more people who are looking for work And out of a job Let me just quickly look here A number of employees in the Philadelphia fence survey goes up So go figure There we go The losses in equity stigma so not much change in there with down about 1.9% Something does fat though It's the gain of the treasury yield up now by just 12 basis points to three 40 Bramo those housing starts That's pretty ugly You get the feeling that's the start of more to come here in that part of the economy This is one of the fastest moving markets I've ever seen in terms of the 6% mortgage rate What does that do to demand when you look at the all in costs and how unaffordable housing already is How much do we revert back to bad news being good news for the markets because it signals that you're getting that weakness that could potentially prompt the fed to stop raising rates as much and as quickly as they seem to be forecasting Housing market is a key one especially given where mortgage rates are and especially given the run up in prices that we've seen John Try sat in that one Tom At least I think that's such a hard sell for people The fed back in a way because the economy is rolling over an inflation is going to persist Well not necessarily backing away but not raising rates as quickly as some people are projecting And this is the reason why some people actually are still holding on to conviction with risk assets because otherwise what's the wager If the fed's going to really go to 4% by the beginning of next year Yeah that whole debate about September the pause so I'm with you Just I hate the idea that bad news is good news You've got to think about why the fed would have to back away Inflation is coming down more quickly because you get this massive supply side response without a doubt that's bullish this market But if you've got a back away Tom because the economic data is dreadful and they're going to have to tolerate much higher inflation for longer That's a problem Michael key with a rude question yesterday Let's review that right now Nominal versus real data in the chairman sort of stumbled over your study of nominal versus the real economy how the economy should go about this Help me here if we have tepid real GDP but then you overlay on substantial inflation that's a high animal spirit for the country Is that factored into the analysis right now Well it does because the fed is supposed to target headline and headline numbers keep getting pushed up by things the fed can't control The fed would like to look at the core rate of inflation And in terms of trying to figure out what policy they'll make they do But the problem then becomes what are they say to the average person who's still filling up their tank and paying $80 a tank And then they're confidence level goes down and they stop spending money Jonathan thought once again McKee was ignored by chairman Powell Oh I thought he asked him a zinger It was such a good question It's a trend Mike was such a good question What did you make of the ass just briefly Mike You asked him basically whether he'd keep chasing headline inflation which ultimately was being fueled by what happened with crude and I think you were pretty blunt about it You're going to chase the oil market here Yeah and he said you know we don't want to but we may have to because that's what consumers respond to And I think the whole overhang of the news conference was the fed is thinking it's going to have a very tough time bringing down inflation because so much of it they can't control and that just that answer kind of fed into it You know Esther George better than anybody in the business You voted for years with Jackson holt coverage and all that Were you shocked by your descent We were all surprised There was a question when we were in the lockup but I wonder if anybody dissented And then it was like of all people But it probably came about because she didn't want to upset the forward guidance that they had put in place before the meeting I don't think seriously thought there's not an inflation problem My thank you my McKee there The other interesting question was The Wall Street Journal Journalist Tom asking a question about whether he should have thrown in the town on his guidance when ultimately the feeling that The Wall Street Journal Journalist was briefed on.

fed Mike McKee Washington D.C. Mike Good John Well Jay Powell John Try United States of America Philly Tom
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:43 min | 6 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The jobs report in America ten seconds away the price action coming into it looks like this Futures negative 7 tenths of 1% on the S&P on the NASDAQ 100 down one four percentage point with your jobs report in America Here's Mike McKee Anticipated John 390,000 jobs were restored last month The forecast have dropped to three 18 after that 80 P number the change in private payrolls even better than 333,000 Of course both of those are down from last month Last month we'd seen 428,000 and 406,000 for private But manufacturing payrolls come in up 18,000 Those numbers from the prior month down 22,000 we've had a revision lower So it does look like the economy may be slowing down just a little bit The unemployment rate stays at 3.6% We had anticipated in the Bloomberg survey It would drop to three and a half in part that maybe because the labor participation rate didn't move all that much It does tick up to 62 three the expectation from 62.2 But we'll have to go underneath the numbers to get a better picture of what happened on the household side Average hour earnings that's the big number everybody's watching come in weaker than anticipated Three tenths of a percent higher for the month 5.2% on a year over year basis which is down from 5.5% Now this kind of upside down world that we've seen guys this is probably good news for the fed the numbers are weaker than expected but still strong So they do show maybe signs of a decelerating economy and decelerating inflation pressures without suggesting that the economy is going to fall off a cliff This one won't settle any arguments Let's push this through this market Futures recover just a little bit still negative a half of 1% on the S&P if you look at the bond market yields with a lift by a couple of basis points at a front end to two 65 further along the curve by three or four basis points to two 94 no major changes TK off the back of this one They're not but I'm going to do some math here John and I'm sorry with the revision up in the last 60 days John We've created an average of 413,000 jobs per month And I'm sorry It's a job formation machine Neil that's for an ice on macro calling it Goldilocks ish Mike McKee does that resonate with you No I think that's a fairly good way you could describe it given the situation This is only the beginning of what is supposed to be happening but we've talked about this and I know you guys have talked about it with some of your guests The idea that because the markets have front run the fed a lot and have pushed rates up You look at the whole yield curve It's above where they think neutral is maybe we're seeing transmission a little bit more quickly into the economy And that would be good news overall for the fed The biggest change that we have seen in terms of the employment data seems to be in leisure and hospitality Again up by 84,000 for the month food and drinking places up by 46,000 Now of course we're getting into the summer season when there would be more people going into the leisure business We'd see some of the amusement parks and things open up So there'll be some seasonal questions about that But professional and business services still are number two at 75,000 higher That suggests that companies are maybe starting to take on some part time workers or contract workers to see how it goes And if they need to continue Transportation and warehousing adding 47,000 jobs that's a category that we've only really just begun to watch because of the shift from buying in person to buying online Construction 36,000 it had been unchanged in April So the construction industry still strong in the month of May but we are seeing signs that that might be starting to roll over So all in all paints a picture similar to the base book that the economy is slowing a little bit but not falling off a cliff Mike McKee thank you Great work as always Let's talk about the ish of the Goldilocks ish Tom You've got an upside surprise on a headline number and to Mike's point you go through this the unemployment rate at 3.6% it didn't drop any lower You didn't see an upside surprise in wages You have seen a tick higher in the participation rate And when we spoke to an enzyme of mork and Stanley I said pick a number any number I can give you now which one would it be She said the participation rate just a little bit of a lift there Tom It's not a massive move It's not dramatic But if you were sitting here and you were the Federal Reserve what you'd like to see over a series of months was just for that supply side story to improve time without that inflationary experience being exacerbated by much time to labor market I'm going to give you no drama I'll get it Let me round it up here You go from two 92 to a two 95 ten year yield You're on your way back to that 3% number All of a sudden with that song We've had a move of I think more than 20 basis points now on the week on ten year treasury put together with what would happen with a German ten year bund which is up about 30 basis points It's been a big week for yields Random cross there were the first observations here Of course for the booth school of Chicago the former fed governor Randy I want to talk about what the fed actually does around the table at the eccles building with this report Do they value an analysis of the inflation adjusted wage Does the real wage matter Or it does Because they're looking both at the inflation to see where expectations are what is happening in the labor market And then they look at adjusting for inflation our real wages exploding There's certainly not exploding We've got inflation that's much higher than the 5 roughly 5 and a half percent growth of wages And so I think as you were saying the fed is going to take this as this is kind of what we were anticipating that we're not seeing an explosion on the wage side We're not seeing a collapse of the economy either I mean these are still very strong numbers Unemployment rate of 3.6% is still an extremely strong number It's very rare that the U.S. economy has a sustained unemployment rate below 4% And so I think it's very much consistent with the fed's forecasts and so that means there's nothing that's going to stop them from continuing this march of 50 basis point increases and is my former colleague from graduate school They're going to be marching through at least September in those 50 basis point rate increases Well that's exactly where I wanted to go Randy Does this jobs report give credence to the idea that they could go 50 basis points three meetings in a row and then follow it on with another 50 basis point rate hike even though last week some including Rafael bostic we're talking about a pause So as they always say their data dependent we have to see how the data come But if you get reports like this is going to give fed the confidence that they are doing the right thing that there's certainly didn't have a little bit of an impact on inflation And hopefully once they get in the two and a half 3% range they'll have more of an impact Inflation expectations have not gotten out of control The short term expectations are super high but that makes a lot of sense But the intermediate to longer run expectations are really not much out of the range where they've been over the last decade.

Mike McKee fed John America S Bloomberg school of Chicago governor Randy Neil Tom eccles building mork Stanley
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:33 min | 6 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Mike it's only May 31st Yes but it only what really matters is what the CPI is doing in November Not to be cynical about it But for the folks in Washington I mean we'll see it continue in theory to go down unless there's another round of COVID or something expands We'll see higher gasoline and oil prices from the ban on Russian oil this weekend But that'll work its way through the system And we should start to see things come down How will it work its way through the system just in the last 30 seconds that we have with you Because if we think about it from a transportation context and from a food context these high prices go through all of those things Yeah they do And oil is a primary component in the making of important chemicals And so you will see if prices are sustained and we're at a point where a company can't absorb it in its margins it'll raise prices But now that prices are up will they continue to go up Call the after the OPEC plus meeting this week to see if they had more oil to the market 20 seconds round that you have That's all it's left Jobs report is going to show some weakness or what Not witness but relative weakness It would be weaker in the 300,000s compared to the 400,000s last month It's just been moving down as we sort of run out of people available in the labor force and companies decide whether they really need to keep hiring if the economy is going to slow Oh Mike McKee you're so incredible Michael McKee international economics and policy correspondent after Bloomberg news that's after a long weekend where I'm still like just trying to finish my coffee This is have.

Mike Washington OPEC Mike McKee Michael McKee Bloomberg news
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:25 min | 8 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Of their subscription service And the share is reacting negatively down about 5% Cut the price of the bike but look it's all about the content guys Talking of content let's bring the content that everyone wants on the day like today Let's go to where Tim's dreams are made of at the moment because for 20 gets into that number And we are currently seeing quite the roller coaster ride for Twitter shares up until this tumultuous week almost two weeks now since must started to disclose that 9.1% stake We have popped higher We have got near that red line for our radio audience We're marked on this chart where 54 $20 offer price currently looks But it is far away from that record high that we reached back in March Yeah you know what you guys it makes me curious about all the investment bankers out there Are there phones ringing saying okay now I want to look at Twitter like I just wonder if there's more interest So we shall certainly make humans point right Right exactly exactly All right we're talking about Twitter There's so much to get to but we got to talk about what's going on in terms of the market psyche when it comes to inflation and the fed be more aggressive with interest rates because it's definitely playing out and it explains a lot of the trade today John Williams president of the New York fed catching up exclusively with our own Mike McKee here at Bloomberg headquarters And he talked about the fed Check it out The economy is strong The labor market is basically back to a close to where it was before the pandemic with the unemployment rate around three and a half percent and other indicators showing that we have very strong demand for labor So I do think from a monetary policy point of view it does make sense for us to move expeditiously towards more normal levels of the federal funds rate And also move forward on our balance sheet reduction plans The fed to act expeditiously We're going to be talking about that word for a while Of course that's the president of the New York fed John Williams talking exclusively with our Mike McKeon I know you guys are going to play a bigger chunk about it but it does feel like there's kind of a pig pile when it comes to what we will get at that next fed meeting I feel like half a point baked in at this point Yeah it seems like that's the case It was a question that I put to Mike McKee a little earlier today And he said yeah the question that people are asking now is really what happens at the meeting after that And what that road looks like to get to that neutral rate that Williams says is within a range of two to two and a half percent He said two to two and a half percent is a neutral rate Yeah that's what he said A neutral setting is being somewhere in the range of 2% to two and a half percent Well that's a lot lower than what we've heard from some other fed members here So looking a little bit closer at 3% and who knows what bullard is that right now What is that like Like Tesla four 12% or something right now.

Mike McKee Twitter John Williams Tim Mike McKeon fed York New York Williams bullard Tesla
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:22 min | 8 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Are we with the jobs market in the United States It's a pretty tight market It is a pretty tight market We haven't seen a lot of change in the market and it has finally occurred to economists that maybe we aren't going to Until they have a better idea of where we're going with this Forecast for what we're going to see is pretty much the same every month in the 405 100,000 range And that's what we have for the march number 450,000 is what's expected which would put us in line with where we've been for the last couple of months We've pierced 600 in four of the last 6 months So the surprise could be to the upside The trend continues higher Are we back to where we were before the pandemic struck Not quite we're still about 4 million jobs short of that but we're getting there and we're getting there at a faster pace than people anticipated We're looking at unemployment falling to 3.7% which would take us very close to the three 5 three 6 We were at before the pandemic began And as far as the weekly jobless claims how does that stack up Well it's interesting because we saw this last week the lowest jobless claims number since 1969 Jobless claims came in last week for the week before at 187,000 which is a crazy number when you think that this is not population adjusted and there's a far more people in the labor force than there were back in 1969 It just shows you companies are not getting rid of people And if you want a job you can probably find one right now You couldn't fog a mirror you can get a job That's the sign will put up in the storefront Hey a lot of people have been complaining about the economy the expansion isn't what they thought it was going to be Just remind us this economy is still on fire isn't it Well it has seen growth slow a little bit but the question is is that a trend or is it a kind of a one off Because we saw inventories rise as long delayed shipments came into the United States in the fourth quarter which just reminded us that that's a proxy for what It's a basically tells you that when inventories count as production in the U.S. but if they've already gotten here then imported inventories aren't going to add anything for this quarter So we've seen a bit of a slowdown there It looks like consumer spending is stronger than expected though and so that tells you that we're still in pretty good shape But everybody's miserable And I guess I'm going to chunk that up to the rate of inflation Well that's the big question ahead is how soon well even can the fed bring down the rate of inflation We'll be watching in the jobs report The average hourly earnings numbers which don't tell you exactly where we're going but it would give you some idea of whether things are slow That's an important point So let's divvy this up for a moment Inflation we attribute this to there's gasoline prices of course because of the war in Ukraine other supply chain issues et cetera because of that But how big of a component to the overall inflation number is wages What you're getting paid and what the employees are forcing it to pay you to attract workers Well it would depend but what matters is the stomach of economists On one hand on the other hand what matters is the growth of average hourly earnings now they've been distorted for a couple of years by the pandemic We are seeing people get bigger raises though now as companies try to attract people back to work The question is are they paying them once They're saying we'll raise the pay in this job or do they come back and have to keep raising pay because people are saying hey inflation what you're giving me isn't keeping up That's what the fed fears that wage price spiral as they call it We are looking for a significant increase in average hourly earnings on a year over year basis to 5 and a half percent in the month of March as the labor market continues to be strong and as you noted from the jobless claims figures there aren't many people out there The higher wages are employers passing that on to their customers in the form of higher prices for the products that they produce We assume they are We don't have complete proof of that You get anecdotal reports when companies report their earnings But one would assume that they are passing along as much as they can so that they don't have to take a hit to margins Again the question becomes do companies keep raising prices and then employees have to come back to the company and try to get more money Indications are so far that hasn't taken hold but again it's something the fed worries about and that's one of the motivating factors for them to move even more quickly than they had planned Mike McKee thanks very much we appreciate it Our global economics and policy editor And just.

United States fed Ukraine Mike McKee
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:40 min | 10 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Don't know I'm not up to speed He strikes me as a very different character I just don't see that happen Maybe I'm wrong And by the way we had this conversation back in 2018 about the growth figures that we had a similar move I remember on Facebook do I know anybody I'm not even on it Mike McKee got off like a ton of people still on Instagram Lisa Well yeah I mean basically and then they moved from TikTok and then there's discourse that they're all Discord that they're all on now messaging each other And then soon it's going to be messaging through something else how much is this a company that's becoming obsolete versus just simply going the way of a steady revenue Do you think at least for an apologies for jumping in Because with time and time Don't you think that that's the hope people have And it colors the conversation a bit that they want this company to go out to go away You know perhaps although if you look at the demographics and this is what Facebook was outlining that they really are not getting that younger demographic in the door How long can they last with just the sort of boomer demographic This is the question you know how much can they really generate enough to sustain them versus just becoming the AOL of 2021 Is it just full of articles on GE and the doubt in the market section Because in the news feed I'll do some I'll do some market research Features on the S&P down about 1% on the NASDAQ 100 which I'm buy two Mo is from now in about 5 minutes where to Frankfurt Germany and catch up with president of the ECB a news conference that could be interesting given what we've heard from the fed going into March and given what the Bank of England has done in December into February hike then hike again as seemingly they've got no interest in doing the same Euro dollar negative two cents of 1% at one 1281 Mike mckees dropped into the studio because before we go.

Mike McKee Facebook AOL GE Frankfurt ECB S Germany Bank of England fed Mike mckees
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:58 min | 11 months ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Music Oh my God thank you so much But let's get to it Let's get to the market drivers report because there's a lot going on That set the business week agenda We've got a dynamic duo of Mike McKee international economics and policy correspondent Bluebird news fresh off his interview with Loretta mester And kriti Gupta Bloomberg markets correspondent at Bloomberg news on the phone in our New York City bureau Mike I'm going to start with you because it really is We were all focused on Jay Powell and that is certainly given some support to the equity trade What do we need to know about his hours of testimony today Basically this was a job interview not only testimony about what the folks teach are monetary policy is going to be Although that's what it ended up being questions about that But he's speaking for himself here rather than for the committee And he's trying to make no news and make nobody unhappy because he wants their votes And so it's a little bit less than we double the Humphrey Hawkins kind of testimonies He said yes if that is probably going to raise interest rates but he didn't say well and he didn't say by how much And he said yes they'll think the balance sheet but he didn't say well I think by how much these are all things that are out there And he said that right things you would say is a fled chair that's concerned about inflation and they're not going to let it get out of control and they want the economy to grow So everybody's benefits So come by our hearing for the most part So Mike do you think he passed the job interview Get the job I think he passed it just fine And one of the funniest lines of the whole thing was when Cynthia lemmas the senator from Wyoming who is a Republican said please give me a lifeline here because I want to vote for you I am looking forward to a job interview where the person says you know help me hire you here Yeah right right Yeah exactly Hey we want to get to your Loretta master interview in just a moment but come on in on the trade Why is there a bullish slant to today's trade Especially when it comes to the tech stocks which everybody is like no no Run away run away Yeah well let's put this in the context first about just kind of what we've seen This is a testimony essentially or job interview as Mike said that came into a market environment where you had seen some consistent selling in the NASDAQ and in Texas in particular So the market was already poised for a bounce back You saw futures higher this morning and then a little bit of hesitation at the open And then chairman Paul's testimony kind of turned things around specifically the line where he said they're likely to allow balance sheet runoff later in 2022 That has been a choking point sticking point for the markets that if the first rate height comes in March does that accompanied by say quantitative tightening or any other method that are going to kind of slim down their balance sheet Because that would be a lot for the market to digest And right now he's saying well that's actually a problem for a couple of months down the road So that was actually kind of the initial catalyst to see stocks getting bought Mike McKee come on in Loretta master president of the Cleveland fed She actually caught up you caught up with her earlier And she had a lot to say Here's a little snippet of that interview Let's play it for everybody If the economy in March looks like it does today and the outlook is similar And of course there's uncertainty around that But if it does and I would support moving the funds rate up at that meeting and starting to move back from some of the extraordinary accommodation we needed earlier in the pandemic All right let me master president of the Cleveland fed catching up with Mike McKee Mike It's been a feta palooza Lots of fed speakers What's key about what she had to say Well the most important thing to recognize with an investor today is that this year she is a voter on the open market committee So the idea that she is ready to raise rates in March matters The fed is collegial institution and they don't want to have big public disagreements And I think the fact that she said that and also we were supposed to hit the Jim bullard today has speech was postponed but he had said last week he was also a voter that the club should start raising rates in March And Esther George who is a third voter sent today we should start raising rates in mind So you've got a fairly strong group of people already signing on to the march move And while Jake Paul didn't want to be specific it's kind of looks like that's the direction that the fed is going Well that's what we get out of the best The fed has an idea of what it wants to do It's like you know when you're a kid and you're like I'll stand around the pool and then you're like one two three everybody in the pool Like that's what we feel like all the sudden There's always there's always nail kashkari right This may be a little bit hesitant It didn't say when but they should right wait Everybody in the pool All right guys we gotta run and it created I know you're gonna be back a little bit later on with something catch near and also the chart of the day Michael McKee catches full interview with Loretta mask You can find that at the Bloomberg and of course creedy is Bloomberg markets correspondent at Bloomberg news Now let's do the Bloomberg business week of bite of the day It's one number that tells us a lot Today's number Carol is 132 It is India falling or I should say failing also falling in its efforts to improve its toxic air quality 1232 cities now have pollution levels deemed below national standards up from a 102 and 2019 The center for research on energy and clean air saying I have to say I was in Indio ten years ago a long time ago but I do remember staying in Delhi And being a very nice hotel and then looking at the pool and I'm like what's on the top of the pool and it was just the air sediment Yeah Just settling in Same thing happened to me in Shanghai about 5 years ago And I was realizing when I went outside my throat would start hurting and Shanghai's not even one of the bad cities in China when it comes to pollution The developing world so important in terms of getting control of climate and air pollution in general All right folks we're just getting started on this Tuesday Carol master Tim steno Vic let's get an update on.

Mike McKee Loretta mester kriti Gupta Bloomberg Jay Powell Humphrey Hawkins Mike Cynthia lemmas Bloomberg news Loretta Cleveland fed Mike McKee Mike open market committee Jim bullard New York City fed Esther George Wyoming Jake Paul kashkari Cleveland
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:22 min | 1 year ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Keane drum roll Mike McKee made the ring walk We need to record that ring walk as Mike McKee enters the studio might be the key looking ahead to play the role data just a few minutes away Give us the guide Mike What are you looking for Well we are looking for something in the range of the consensus 550,000 the whisper number on Wall Street only a tick higher than that Although the entire street kind of leans that direction I think at this point it's going to be a checklist for the fed report rather than anything that is decisive If we get something what people are more or less expecting for jobs unemployment and for labor force participation the fed can just say you know check we're done and move on to increasing the speed of the taper And the 47 pages you read and nobody else reads Mike there'll be a paragraph on holiday employment Amazon hiring 4 million people in all that Are there going to be some goofiness in this report like Amazon target the others We're not expecting anything but everything over the past year has been goofy these numbers are seasonally adjusted so they take into account the holiday hiring Although the interesting thing is with the difficulty we've had getting people to take jobs we've had more people more companies announce holiday hiring numbers than ever before Can they find those people The one thing if you are one of those people who looks at the 47 pages look at warehouse and couriers That's where the numbers Yeah that's why the numbers show up because that's where all the temporary deliveries So who would have thought warehouse Well and how much more they're getting paid and this really goes to the hourly employment just real quick here What's the whisper out there We're seeing 5% as the estimate globally in terms of the year over year wage increase What do you think it is a potentially going to be That's probably as good at estimate as any that would imply a four tenths percent increase on the month which is about what we have been seeing The fed would like to see that continue to rise but maybe not at that rate And if we are getting more people into the labor force that will take some of the pressure off it It's all things they've got to consider They got to put all this together and make sense out of it I'm a sit tight with four minutes and about 15 seconds away from the payrolls report in America full reaction with my key Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock looking forward to that 5 50 is your median estimate the number comes next from New York.

Mike McKee fed Mike Keane Amazon labor force Jeff Rosenberg BlackRock America New York
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:42 min | 1 year ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Think this is a definitely a win for Biden at least in the eyes of economic history books for safeguarding the institutional independence of the fed But sorry Go ahead please Okay You know one point that Mike mentioned about 5 being pointed as posture I think that there's also something there because the vice chair pose for example a rich clarita how he made of this post She was basically the architect intellectual heart architect behind the new average inflation targeting framework And the next policy framework review could be as early as end of 2023 Right And perhaps brain art who probably is the one who chose to who prefer the spice chair pose rather than the supervision post maybe he is thinking that she wants to leave a legacy of fed and in the next policies Got it Can you push for a climate change or create digital currency And we gotta run Thank you so much Bloomberg economics chief U.S. economist down a Wong along with Bloomberg news international economics and policy correspondent Mike McKee You're listening to Bloomberg business week You were going to continue covering the feb but we're also going to talk a little about COVID certainly key to our economy This is Bloomberg This is a Bloomberg money minute Hello this is discover and we take customer service very seriously We know that if you have a question or concern about your credit card that's a serious matter And you need to talk to a real person about it so we offer around the clock access to seriously talented representatives.

Biden Bloomberg clarita Mike McKee Mike U.S.
"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:36 min | 1 year ago

"mike mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Seen joining us now to talk about it Bloomberg economic senator Mike McKee Mike when introducing the jobs report I would always say it's the mother of all economic reports Is that still the case That's still the case although it's adopted a step sister in the past couple of months The CPI report has the fed worries about both inflation and unemployment But unemployment is still their target So this is why the jaws report gets all the attention it does Okay you brought up inflation so I'll inject this question how important are jobs to the inflation picture IE wages Well the concern among central bankers is if we see inflation continue to rise then at some point people are going to expect inflation to keep rising and therefore go to their bosses and ask for more money and that starts a wage price spiral That's what we saw in the 1970s Now we don't have unions with the same kind of power they used to have and big pattern bargaining So it's less of a risk but that's the concern that they would start to put some pressure on the wage side We know that wages have been going up because companies are trying to attract workers as they try to reopen But for now it appears to be a one off That's why we'll keep an eye on the jobs report and the earnings numbers to see if continues to increase I think it was Paul Volcker the former one of the former fed chairs he used to have in his breast pocket a printout of the latest labor agreements That's how important the wage pressures were in making decisions at the Central Bank as opposed Yeah you used to have all of the major unions the steel workers the auto workers and many others who would engage in pattern bargaining where they would go into one company and reach an agreement and then all the other companies in the industry basically had to match it Now you have still have that in the auto industry but contracts for three to 5 years and the other industries don't follow the same pattern as much and are much smaller as manufacturing jobs have gone away So it's less of an issue When you and I got our jobs we were asked about qualifications Nowadays when somebody goes in for a job interview I suspect the first questions do you have a pulse It is very hard to attract workers these days A lot of people left the labor force during the coronavirus pandemic's worst months and they've been much slower than people anticipating coming back In part because they maybe still worried about COVID exposure in part because a lot of people who were of retirement age the baby boomer boomers just decided well if I'm gonna be out of work I'm just gonna take my social security and take my pension if I have one and retire And so that's left us with a big hole in the labor market that companies are struggling to fill Are you seeing that reflected in different industries like if I'm in the service industry a waiter waitress or a job like that That's the hardest job to fill in part because it's consumer facing You're in people's faces all day and if you're worried about COVID that's a concern It's also hard work and low pay And so a lot of people who were in those jobs may be found something else to do during the pandemic when everybody was locked down in the restaurants were closed and don't want to go back They may have gone back to school or they may just be sitting out right now There was a thought that maybe the generous unemployment benefits were keeping people sidelined That'll be something we'll watch for in the September payrolls report We get a big jump in some of the areas in which people would have made as much or more on unemployment than they would at their job and restaurants are a key part of that So if you were a single mom and you're trying to find child care and those jobs aren't filled people who would normally take care of your kids while you're at work that also has got a figure into these numbers as well right Some situation like that Yeah and child care workers as you mentioned have been slow to come back as well again It's another exposure question And so for parents of young children it's particularly hard If your child is in elementary school or higher you may be okay except that there's still a lot of concern about whether schools are going to end up having to go virtual if we get an outbreak of cases so maybe the mothers are still somewhat reluctant to go back The impact of this jobs report on the fed's decision on the tapering back its extraordinary stimulus What is it Well the fed of course has two goals They wanted substantial additional progress on inflation Over their target and Jay Powell said last week that they had reached that they believe that with inflation where it is that has been satisfied and the other question is maximum employment we had three and a half percent unemployment before the crisis and they'd like to get back closer to that We come into the September jobs report with unemployment at 5.2% It's definitely going down but not there yet So we want to see how far unemployment falls but Powell said they have made enough progress that a moderately good jobs report payrolls report would be enough to trigger tapering Mike thanks for stopping by today Appreciate it Michael mccabe Bloomberg economics editor.

senator Mike McKee Mike fed Paul Volcker Bloomberg Central Bank Jay Powell Powell Michael mccabe Bloomberg Mike
New home sales rise in December

Bloomberg Businessweek

02:39 min | 2 years ago

New home sales rise in December

"Sales. We talked about this. With Mike McKee rising in Summer, the first time in five months. It's captain the best year since 06 signaling that record low mortgage rates continue to drive demand for sector That's really been a bright spot in the U. S economy. So another story on the Bloomberg about Hamptons home sales are at a record in the fourth quarter, people continuing to leave New York City head out to the Hamptons. Meantime, even as The pack of chapter 11 filings in commercial real estate have slowed amid easy access to funds summer still telling us that the real estate industry is quote facing an existential crisis of what's next. So let's see what Gil Brock has to say He is the U. S presidency of Collier's international. He's with us on the phone from Los Angeles. Guilt. So nice to have you here. How are you and How is your world? And how does it compare from kind of what we saw over the last year? Michael. Nice to talk with you again. Look, I think we're doing fine. It's been a long year for all of us or long, 11. Months on guy think that You know, sort of where we are. We're closer to the end than the beginning. That's the good news right to the vaccines are rolling slowly, but they're rolling on. I think that most people are quite encouraged by that and encouraged about The fact that we should be returned to some sense of normalcy by the middle of the year and into the back half of the year and so things are looking up, and they didn't end as badly as some might have predicted. Sort of When the crisis hit us in March and April last year, there was activity on there was some sense of optimism. You know, again toward the end of last. Clearly we didn't perform last year like we did in 2019. But things did gradually start to get better. And that trend seems to be continuing that true around the world. I mean, I knew you focus on us properties. But you guys are international eyes. It kind of the same story everywhere. It depends on the market. I mean, I know real estate is location, location location. Very local story, but I'm just curious. Yeah, I know. Everything I've heard and read from my colleagues you know, across the ponds is that they're feeling sort of generally the same way there is enthusiasm. Activity is picking up. On Has really been the opposite of most other effort types because of the economic growth. Are you seeing any

Mike Mckee Hamptons Gil Brock U. Collier New York City Los Angeles Michael
Steady Fed sees no more hikes in 2019

Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe

01:16 min | 4 years ago

Steady Fed sees no more hikes in 2019

"So lot of central Bank news coming through today. Of course, the fed front and center and fed chairman Jerome Powell said interest rates could be on hold for some time. That's after officials slash their projected interest rate increases this year two zero from two with more. Bloomberg's Mike Mckee reports from Washington the pause continues with no change in the feds target rate. But if you believe the dot plot policymakers think they're done for the year. The median dot now calls for no rate hikes this year, just one next year. The fed will also begin tapering its balance sheet runoff in may reducing the cap on monthly redemptions. Fifteen billion dollars. They'll stop altogether at the end of September with about three and a half trillion on the books in Washington. Michael Mckee, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. It was taken really dovish Lee. Certainly by the bond market. Interestingly we saw Kerr flattening on the twos. Tens was steeply up a little bit today and the chances in the market of a rate cut this year have increased as well off the back of that meeting. So really to me all the fed did was actually bring the dot plot to where the markets were already pricing. But then immediately the bond market starts asking for more on the flip side. We didn't quite get the rally inequities, you might have expected from a dovish no perhaps some concerns regarding growth going forward as the Federal Reserve also downgraded its growth forecasts for two thousand nine hundred ninety two point one percent is what it's now predicting for

Bloomberg Federal Reserve Washington Mike Mckee Michael Mckee Kerr Jerome Powell Chairman Europe LEE Fifteen Billion Dollars One Percent
U.S. stock futures hit record high following speech from Fed's Powell

Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe

01:20 min | 4 years ago

U.S. stock futures hit record high following speech from Fed's Powell

"Really now European stocks finished Friday. Little change this morning. We're seeing the futures rising though your stocks fifty futures higher by four tenths of one percent. Racing dachshund futures high more than half of one percent Asian equities getting a boost. As well investors digesting the Fed's symposium in. Jackson Hole perhaps it orchids meshes message. From Thatcher Jerome Powell than expected investors also. Digesting moves by the c. Scene tilting towards. A stronger Yuan the Shanghai composite on. The back of that rising by one point, seven percent the Hang Seng bomas two. Point one percent and. In Tokyo the Nikkei two to five Shut up shop with a gain of run about nine tenths. Of one. Percent. The Bloomberg dollar spot index little changed as I look at it now a dropped on Friday remember we are, seeing euro dollar under a little bit, of pressure here at one spot sixteen zero seven I mentioned the u on it is also, coming onto, pops, a. Little bit of pressure only marginally so though as I look at. The on shore you on down by about, a tenth, of one percent against the dollar trading at six. Point eight one seven five we are also keeping, an eye, on. The Turkish lira this morning it is now down by almost one point seven percent the Turkish lira under. Under watch hair as Turkish domestic. Markets are getting back online after a week long

Thatcher Jerome Powell Bloomberg Jackson Hole FED United States Boucle Mckee Bloomberg President Trump Elon Musk Mexico Paris Frankfurt Hang Seng China Petroleum Wall Street Journal Jason Scott Scott Morrison Yuan Tokyo Nafta Mike Mckee