16 Burst results for "Mike Givens"
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Ultimately didn't get included in the measure that was passed so here we are with essentially a bridge to November 17 and no idea what happens after that so we'll just have Mike Dorning figure it all out for us Bloomberg Politics reporter Mike Dorning is with us here at the table it's good to see you survive the weekend that was I know you were working as well remarkable turn of events here and the speed with which this all went through sort of is all of us in Washington but we're about to go through this all over again aren't we the chances of a shutdown are still pretty high for November yeah and we've heard that they're even on the Republican side they are warning lobbyists that there's a very strong chance of a shutdown November 17th so we should all expect that once again as a probability but my gosh if you'd asked me a few days ago if we were going to shut down this weekend I would have bet on that for sure well and obviously what has to happen to avoid a shutdown between now and November 17th is to get 12 appropriation bills through both chambers and there's no or another continuing resolution I see Mike's given me okay theoretically though well they want to pass these single approach bills in theory that's what they would like to do particularly in the house on the Senate side maybe less so because it's more cumbersome to get each one through the Senate that they have these minibuses that take more than one appropriations bill but in at a minimum over the next few weeks there'll be more airing and debating and to ratchet out what exactly people want at least remember in this shutdown they could never even come up with a coherent set of demands on the Republican House side as to why they meant to shut the government down so if nothing else the Republicans in the on the house side and the bipartisan coalition on the Senate side hopefully will come up with what they want as a starting position and then you know we'll figure it out it could be anything it could be the individual appropriations bills it could be another stopgap temporary funding measure it could be some global resolution where you just pass everything at once Republicans like to ride the so -called omnibus you feel like we're in public transportation well we know Matt Gaetz is not a fan of any of these buses absolutely and or a continuing resolution he says he's gonna file this motion to vacate you know it's really interesting Kayleigh to hear from Mick Mulvaney earlier you can file the motion but if don't you call for a vote nothing happens so he could do that as a symbolic gesture but it seems pretty clear Matt Gaetz does not have the votes to fire Kevin McCarthy isn't that right well not if the Democrats in some way shape would it for the Democrats to save them I think if there's a strong possibility right now that that Gaetz could get four other Republicans to go along with them for the so -called hardliners that's all he needs for hardliners to go along with and them that in theory under normal practices would be enough to vote out the speaker that said we're not dealing with normal we haven't been dealing normal with for a long time we're well past that but all it would take is some Democrats hey you know missing the vote or voting present or even voting present or missing a vote on some parliamentary maneuver to block that by sending it to the table or a committee or whatnot but with it if he can get or more hardliners which is quite probable it would just take at least some Democrats tacitly helping to stop that but once that happens that's a really tough position for McCarthy to be in because if he has to rely on even a little bit of tasks that Democrats support to survive then every time he does anything he has to worry about either antagonizing more hardliners or antagonizing the few Democrats that he needs yeah I've read and heard the phrase coalition government it's thrown around a lot and the idea though Mike is that the Democrats would ask for something in exchange right some kind of concession concession maybe on Ukraine funding for example I mean what would that even look like I would assume they'd ask or maybe they'd be like Marlon Brando and the Godfather you know the day will come when I need the favor but I expect that they want some some down payment right away but you know it could be asking for at least a on -the -record vote on a Biden an impeachment inquiry so they could either stop it or beat the you -know -what out of the Republican marginal swing district members who vote for it or it could be some sort of understanding that you know maybe you'll at least not shut down the government we don't start small I guess yeah on the asks here this take could on a lot of different forms then obviously but the sticking points will remain the same the it's really same debate today that it was on Friday and we have no reason to believe that'll be different come November here it's the same debate but the thing about Washington is there's like an infinite number of combinations and that could happen you know you can tack just a little way in one direction or the other either in how you approach the motion to vacate or how you you know split the difference on some bills can we just return to the issue quickly of Ukraine funding which course of as we were discussing was left out of this package could be something that the carrot that Democrats need in order to save McCarthy this is something Biden pushed McCarthy on over the weekend yes we gotta do this we know that McCarthy was pushed on it we know that Democrats were some people like Michael Bennet yeah in in the Senate even held it up a little bit to try to get some formal commitment from the Senate and House leaders that they would do something now we don't know what exactly he's committed to and how McCarthy might interpret that commitment now like maybe he's committed to bring it up but he's gonna put all these border provisions on that are hard we just don't know the answer to that but what we do know is this is very important to the US our colleagues at Bloomberg broke the story that President Biden is going to have a call with world leaders to reassure them that the U US maintain will aid for Ukraine so he's gonna go and tell other world leaders that we're gonna get that done how that happens I don't know boy that's one thing to say we'll yeah but see I mean he knows more than we do but you've got got to think this is probably the last the last opportunity to get a supplemental request of that size though correct which brings us back to the conversation about the counter -offensive how much can you do with this money because coming back again and in the in middle of a presidential election cycle could be dicey oh yeah absolutely um and the republicans even the ukraine supporters among the republicans want biden to ask for enough money so that he doesn't have to come back to this well so they can just get it done and not have to revisit it before the presidential election yeah it just becomes a question of what it costs to get it done i guess who you're going to be able to wrangle because there will at least be a certain number of those hardline conservatives which is not a very small number a lot of them are already on the record voting down that's right more funding for ukraine and that just could create more headaches for speaker and the thing is the number of republicans who really don't want the aid to ukraine is much larger than the number of republicans who right now are willing to try to unseat mccarthy and he doesn't want to like build up that number um to be more republicans are that unhappy with him so he also has to you know not antagonize the republicans who are against ukraine aid too much so don't antagonize the opposition party because you might need them but also you can't antagonize your own party right tough spot better him than me yeah no doubt you've covered washington for a minute have you ever seen dysfunction like this uh... i can't say i've ever seen dysfunction like this some although you know there were certainly a lot of sudden changes back and forth in the prior administration in the white house back there in terms of uh... you know just the whole dysfunctional uh... but then you know in american history there have been tough times before i mean this is nothing like you you know congress before the civil war the vietnam era before our times our our modern era though this is a little i didn't see those i wasn't alive that's just like was not there he was he he was post post civil war threats uh... great to see you as always mike dorney bloomberg politics reporter to be a he's the best let's get a check world on national news now with nancy lions in the bloomberg newsroom in been talking about a florida congressman at gate says house speaker kevin mccarthy is violated to deal with house republicans by working with democrats to avoid a government shutdown gates urge transparency during a today so mister speaker just tell us just tell us what was in the secret ukraine side deal what commitments were made separate to president i didn't to continue the spending of president biden in exchange for doing things for for president by gates who has threatened to force a vote on asking speaker mccarthy today said stay donald trump is in a new york or truman today for his civil fraud trial the judges already found trump liable for misleading banks about his assets so today's proceedings involve six remaining claims in the amount of
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Okay. big Big deal. But right now, at this moment, the onslaught begins. We will see this Wednesday, Thursday in the jobs report in early September month data here on Friday to give us wisdom in perspective as the numbers launch. Michael McKee is us with with our end of August data. Michael, what do you see in the first look here on Wednesday? Well, we've got some GDP numbers revision to second quarter growth of down to 2 .1 % from 2 .4 % personal consumption, however, revised up from 1 6 to 1 7. So that will go into some people's estimates of what it's going to be like for spending in the third quarter. The GDP price index up 2 % on the year over year basis, quarter over quarter 3 .7 %, but those kind of get overlooked because we'll get the numbers for July tomorrow. But we do have some numbers also that bear on third quarter growth. The first round of stuff that comes in, advanced goods trade balance widened significantly to 91 .2 billion from revised 88 .8. Wholesale inventories are down a tenth. They were down seven tenths last month. So that'll be a contributor to GDP. Retail inventories up by three tenths. That's lower than the seven tenths gained the month before and lower than what was anticipated. So we put it all together and basically got a little stronger growth going into the third quarter, at least among some of the components that will make up those things. But it is only the first month of the third quarter that we're looking at. Mike, look at the revisions as well because we do have a market move. We got a lift in equities, which is tangential to a weaker dollar demonstrable in euro 109 .11, 1 euro strong here by three tenths of a percent. Yen has made the journey to its new destination Kaylee, we've gone from 147 level into 145. Seth Karpman is looking at me like, what is going on? 146 .01 on a stronger Japanese yen, even Sterling vaults out near 127 level. I look at the 10 year real yield, that's what we'll talk to Dr. Karpner about and the answer is 1 .83. Kaylee's a little bit different than where we were three days ago. Yeah, well, a lot has changed over the course of the last 24 hours as we see these movements in the bond market, Tom. The continuation of yields moving lower off of the data back of that would suggest that it's playing into the doves at the Federal Reserve's favor. Mike, GDP price index 2 .2 % is 2 .0. That's a demonstrable lessening there. What is the GDP price index? Well, it too is the deflator. It's the price index they use to deflate nominal GDP constant to dollar GDP. And so it is coming down. But again, that's a quarterly average as opposed to a month by month. And the Fed wants to look at month the by month to see what the sequential progress is. I might mention here, this is the first GDP vision that gives us profits for American companies. And this is not all just public companies. This includes private companies. And profits decreased 10 .6 billion in the second quarter, which sounds terrible. But in the first quarter, they were down 121 .5 billion. So there was a lot of talk going into this year about profit recessions. Looks like we had something like that in the first quarter and things are getting better now. Well, and I hear a lot of talk in Washington where I usually am that the reason we're seeing inflation, at least this is the argument on the Democratic side, is because of price gouging and profiteering on the part of corporations. Just quickly, especially Mike, given that last week Chairman Powell was talking about above trend growth and the risk that it poses to the fight against inflation, how much does a revision lower in GDP help to maybe ease concerns around Well, I suppose it eases some concerns, but this is always a question of what have you done for me lately. The Fed is going to be looking at what the third quarter numbers are and the Atlanta Fed, they come out with a new estimate update tomorrow. The Atlanta Fed is at 5 .9%. So nobody thinks it's going to remain at 5 percent. The math is you've got to bring it down a lot to get to trend growth or below. Mike McKee, thank so you much. Greatly appreciate it. Again, we've got equities of a little bit of a lift. Yields mix, red and green on the yield screen as well. Again, the real yield 1 .83%. Brent Crude, I've been watching here, 85 -88 pulls back a little bit from the 86 level. He wasn't a Jackson Hole. He should have been. He would the have done 31 -mile paintbrush divide hike. It goes way up in the tundra there at 12 ,000 feet. Dr. Carpenter darkens the door with many years of experience at the Federal Reserve System. Seth Carpenter is with Morgan Stanley. You have to corral Zentner when she's not in some trout stream trying to catch trout. What is the Zentner mood now, the Morgan Stanley recession meter? Have we just discarded recession? So I wouldn't say that we've discarded it wholesale. There's always a risk. As I like to say, bad things happen to good economies all the time, Tom. But since the beginning of this hiking cycle, we've tried to say a soft landing is the most likely outcome. The economy is not going to go into recession as a base case forecast. And so far, that view has come true. I mean, it was not, I have to say, the most popular view with our clients three months ago, six months ago, nine months ago. On the other hand, things haven't slowed down quite as much as we thought it would either. Mike was like was talking about the GDP data, the downward revision sort of pulls things sort of along the slowing line, but it's still a pretty punchy number. 2 .1 % is above, I think, most people's estimate of potential growth. So we still have a ways to go. We still think there's more drag from monetary policy in the line, but inflation's coming down. Job growth is slowing. We'll get another print on Friday. Our number is, I think, around 155 for private payrolls. So that'll be another lower tick in terms of job demand. We saw the JOLTS data that had a market reaction as well. Things are cooling off a bit, but they're not cold. The hallmark of Morgan Stanley economics is invented by Stephen Roach and Richard Berners. Everybody fights like cats and dog. What is the point of conversation around the desk at Stanley? Morgan What's the thing everybody's arguing about? Gosh, right now I have to say every corner of the world has its own quirky story. I mean, I think we, for us in the U .S., there's definitely the slowdown, the soft landing, but boy, the data are surprising to the upside. In very stark contrast on the other of side the world, I'm always in conversation with my team in Asia. China, we had come into this year pretty bullish on China. The first quarter was super strong and now things have slowed down a great deal. And so the question is, when do we get enough of a policy response from Beijing to pull things back in? So that's where we're, those are two of the main topics where we're really debating. Yeah, and we've talked about China a lot in recent weeks because it just seems like piecemeal, one thing after another, they're doing things to try to stimulate that economy, just to return to your soft landing thesis and the avoidance of a recession. Are we really talking about a recession entirely avoided or one that potentially is just pushed off, just further delayed out into the future as we think about these lagged effects kicking in in a way they have not yet fully? I mean, I think that still remains a key question for us. We still think it is a recession avoided. That's been our view for a long time. The trough, though, in terms of economic growth does seem like it's got pushed off a little bit. We think things will come down further from here. And there are things besides monetary policy that are a downside risk for the rest year. of this I mean, student loan moratorium, that has gone away. If you look at the daily Treasury Statement, you can start to see some of those inflows going. So that could weigh things down on Ellen's team. Sarah Wolfe is our consumer specialist, and she's been all over student loan debt repayments as a really key downside risk for the fourth quarter. So are there still risks of a recession? Absolutely. There always are. But we don't think that's the main story that the labor market slowing, but still resilient. Yeah, in October, that's definitely going to be something of concern.
"mike givens" Discussed on WLS-AM 890
"Cut for here is the worst press secretary hands down in and the history of the United States. By the way, hat tip. I don't know people get it from this show or not. I don't care. don't I need a footnote on it. I'm not that stupid because she is the worst. But other people picked up on this now. I've heard other hosts calling now her, in fact, the worst press secretary in the history of the United States because she is for a good reason. What do you mean? How could you be the worst for a good reason? Jen Psaki was a skilled very liar. I'm not sure that's a compliment folks because it's not. She's really good at lying. She's almost like sociopathically good at it. Jen Psaki could lie like that. She was witty. She was sharp. She was a good which liar makes her a good press secretary because they have to lie a lot. Karine Jean -Pierre is a bad liar. That may be a compliment, a backhanded one, but it's true. She's just not good at this. She is horrible. Watch how she sets herself up. This is glorious in this one clip. Here's what happens. Let me just tee it up for you. You never want to create a sub -question within a statement that questions the premise of what you're about to say i .e. if you know you're about to change a story like she's about to change the story about Biden and his business dealings with The Sun. You don't say in advance my story's never changed because it highlights the fact that you changed the story. It's the classic when did you stop beating your wife question. I didn't beat my wife. And then they're like well why is he saying he didn't beat his wife? Did he beat his wife? You get what I'm saying? This is what she does this to herself here by saying oh no I've answered this this a thousand times the story hasn't changed. But it has. Take a listen. Chairman James Comer today says that the oversight committee has evidence that the president in the past communicated directly with foreign business associates of his son Hunter Biden many times. I'm curious if the White House and the president still stand behind his comment that been involved in has never even spoken to his son about his. So I've been I've been asked this question a million times the answer is not going to change the answer remains the same. The president was never in business with his son. I just don't have anything else to add. Oh my gosh she is so bad at this. Listen I don't know how to say this without sounding terrible like I'm trying to manipulate you because I'm not But let's just say four years of a B .A. in psychology. what's Mike the rule about citing education. You cite your education. You're probably a toolbox. Mike do I get a waiver on this one. OK. Mike's given me it was just for the folks just give me a waiver for a moment. Anyone who cites their education is usually an idiot and a moron but for a second I promise I'm making a point. Four years psychology in school. Two years of graduate school in neuropsychology and behavior learning. Then business school where you learn a lot about the psychology of economics and finance and how people think and rational maximizers. Then a year in secret service training in the federal law enforcement training center. And then four years on the street prior to all that with the NYPD talking to people every single day. Let me tell you something you get really really learning good at how to take a conversation let's say in a certain direction. Maybe that's why the talk radio show seems to be doing really well. I don't know. I'm just winky winky nod nod. Don't ever do that. If you want to change a story. Not telling you to I am just telling you if you want to manipulate and contour a story people do it all the time. Don't ever set it up by highlighting the fact that the stories never change because the first thing the person thinks is the story about the change. You're not doing what you think you're doing. But Corinne Jean -Pierre is such a hooky and frankly a really stupid person. She's just not smart. You can tell how she always gets caught making up words and all this other stuff. She's just not smart enough for this. Don't do that. When you know you're about to kind of fudge it a little bit, you don't want to say and this is the exact thing we told you with the last quarter's earnings. Except it's not. Because then they're thinking why is he emphasizing this? Is he about to change something? And that's exactly what she She did. flubbed it and she screwed it up because now the story's changed to, oh, he was never in business with his son, the president. But that's not what they said. Mike, we got to squeeze this in. Here's what they said. Cue up for me. Cut five. Here's Biden. Flashback 2019. And he said this multiple times. He denied doing any business with his son. Zero, as he said. No evidence. Here, listen to this. Look, what I agree is with that there's not a single anyone voluntary thing said that was done wrong. I don't discuss business with my son. I didn't know that was the case when in fact I found out after the fact. And because I don't discuss things with my son or my family because I don't want to have any knowledge of any. I don't want to be accused of, well, you talk with your son or you talk with your whomever. And so the fact is, though, everybody's looked at that. He did nothing wrong. Zero. Period. I never discussed business business with my son. Now the stories change. So I've never been in business with my son. Ladies and gentlemen, those are two completely different stories. And again, I'm not here to teach you how to lie. You after probably 10 plus years of advanced interrogation interview and you get really good at. Contouring the direction of a dialogue, let's just really good. Never do that. If you're about to change a story, then just change it. Don't change it and emphasize how you're not going to change it because then they know you're going to change it. Rookie ball, rookie ball. All right, I'm going to get to this next. Please don't go anywhere. I got a big show ahead of you. Big show. The biggest stooge in this whole thing. Stooges are two by two people. One Obama seconds, a group of people, the media, but one in particular who is really, really been horrible this whole time. This Ann Applebaum. Don't miss this. I got more coming up next. We'll be right back. Bunch, you know. Dr. Gawker here and you know me. I am very cynical about products, especially those that claim to help people suffering from pain. So when I tell you that
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Week after week after week. The latest from you, given the events of the past few weeks, we think guidance is looking more and more unrealistic and equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates ahead of any hard data changes. Mike, given that you've been saying this for a while and given the fact that we have continued to see resilience in equities that refuse to go down. How do you push back and say, you guys are going to wake up. It might not be yet, even if we get disappointing earnings, but you will. Well, look, we try to navigate that inside the equity market, right? So last year, we saw a pretty big degradation in multiples, but as we pointed out again today, all that was due to higher interest rates. None of it was due to higher risk premium, which is the part of the multiple that is pricing in what growth is going to be. Now, I would push back on the pushback, which is that the market is starting to revamp value or devalue what I would say, the companies that are most at risk of missing estimates, as I mentioned earlier, lower quality companies, more cyclical companies, smaller cap companies that are going to have a hard time with what's going on in the regional banking I think there's some appetite for that view. That's not our view. Our view is that there's going to be probably be more cost cutting in that space because the mala investment which is so egregious and the over earning was even worse. So I think it's just going to be kind of a drip drip drip. You know, my suspicion is markets tend to figure this out ahead of the actual numbers coming down and because the bond market just repriced itself overnight, we think that risk pretty equity market is elevated now more than it has been for the last 6 or 12 months. Mike, you've been labeled a bear and I know what it is to be labeled to bear, then people think that everything you say is bearish, no matter what. I'm just saying, even when potentially you do get constructive, are there any areas that you think have sufficiently repriced, where you're starting to see opportunity? Well, looking financials have started to reprice in a meaningful way. Now all of these companies are going to have problems that we're seeing in some of these. So yeah, I think it's happening. Another thing I would just point out is that financials tend to lead the overall market, but that's one area for sure. Some of the retail, some of the consumer areas of reprice, they've been repricing for years. We just added a name to our fresh money by listening. It's a retailer. So I think there are definitely areas where markets go through these periods with a rolling bear market rolling perspective. And we've kind of, I think, came out with that view a few years ago. Now people have used it, but that's the way it works. And anyway, we're looking for opportunities now. The stock level, but at the index level, it just is now like attractive to us. Mike Wilson, the thing that's different this time around is the pile of money in what's called private equity, private markets. Can they be a catalyst for a not like milk and years ago, but can they be a catalyst for a roll up of all these troubled companies? Well, look, I mean, first of all, I don't think there's that many troubled companies. I think we have a situation where evaluations are out of bounds, and we need to correct that. I absolutely think there's tons of cash out there where there's private or public money, public money that meaning asset owners that can come in at the right price and it will. So whatever we're going to get here in the next three to 6 months in terms of finally resetting the valuation appropriately getting estimates down. I don't think we're going to stay at very, very low price levels for very long time. And we're not in the camp that we're in secular structural bear market as they cyclical bear market has some completion to it. And your question is really around. Is there enough cash and investable funds out there to kind of stabilize things? And I think the answer is absolutely yes. Okay, Mike Wilson, thank you for the brief this morning. Hugely valuable. He is, of course, with Morgan Stanley. I thought you were vulnerable. I thought doctor Wilson provided wonderful Monday there. Thank you. I try. I try to get it everywhere I get it. Now I think it's important to note. He's not looking for some sort of structural bear market. And the opportunity is potentially banks. I think is fascinating that he was highlighting it. This will be a discussion to continue and we will do that. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg surveillance on radio on television. Now the latest news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. Tom Lee said new witness testimony
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Or so as well. Pretty depressing stuff. But on the short and shallow stuff, I have to say, think about how the consensus has shifted through the year. Do you remember what we were never going to see a 50 basis point hike, then we were never going to see 75, then we've never seen two 75 basis point hikes. And surely rates wouldn't go through four, a 5 handle absolutely no chance. Here we are. And now it's all recession short and shallow, the overwhelming consensus. Right. And as you've said, is this the new transitory. The interesting thing is, nori orbini, I asked him, do you get a lot of pushback? You're always bearish. So why should anyone listen? And he said, from people who actually are in the know when they read this, you're laughing at me. And he said, no, because he said, I feel like you're asking a friend. Do they ever push back against you because they push it back against me all the time? Well, you're asking for yourself. Do we have a guess? He said, people agree with him, which I think is interesting. He has some good points. Okay, cool. I'm going to get to Mike right now. Thanks, good. Mike. You just won, and I'm happy to say you were just rank the best portfolio strategist in the latest institutional investor survey. Mike, I know you're well. You'd share that price with the hole of your team. Mike, can we start there? Can you walk me through what is really given you and the team, the edge this year, as you've worked through a really fast moving economy and a tremendously difficult market. You know, thanks, John. I appreciate that. And you're right as a team effort. I mean, a lot of effort goes into this ranking. A lot of it has to do with just client service. If anything else, our calls have been right, but clients pay us for what clients really want from us is critical thinking and holding their feet to the fire on kind of what's happening. And I think what's allowed us to maybe get ahead of the curve a little bit is I go back to three years ago and you know our research well, we first started talking about the recession itself that was going to be really nasty, but then to be shaped recovering, we said the next cycle will be hot urban shorter and so having that framework right recycle analysts a little different in psychoanalyst, but we're cycle analyst and we look at history. Yeah, well it's similar. And it helps us understand kind of, okay, well, what is this period look like? They're never the same exactly. But having that context, a historical context, we spend an enormous amount of time on that, plus I'm a little bit older. So some of it I lived through. And we understand when we see something, okay, it's different this time. And that helps us sort of stay ahead of the pack. Not always, but I think in this year in particular, we saw early on, this is going to be a shorter cycle. The fed was going to have to move faster than people expected. That was going to curtail expectations on profits, ultimately, the fire and ice narrative has played out. And so just being willing to kind of get in front of the pack, I think, is really helped us not just this year, but in years past as well. And of course, when you do that, you run the risk of being wrong. And we were wrong, occasionally. Not always right. But you have to be willing to go there. If you're willing to take a shot and get away from the consensus. Mike, given the historical perspective that you do bring to this, where are we in terms of the ice and short and shallow and this question of, okay, if it is deeper, how long will it last and how long can inflation remain prolonged? When you take a look at when you start to find optimism in the equity markets, perhaps early next year, is that predicated on this idea that we are not going to be in some sort of high inflation environment for a very long time. Yeah, I mean, here's a great example where we're just, we have a view that is not consensus. And we have more conviction in it. We've been actually thinking about this for four or 5 years. If you go back and look at our research, we didn't just pull it out of left field. We think we're entering the end of financial repression in the end of secular stagnation and actually the pandemic is what's the catalyst to kind of break us out. Now, of course, we're experiencing this first wave of inflation, which was spectacular. And more than people expected. But we think we're into what we think is a boom bust environment. It's very similar to the post World War II period of 40s and 50s, where we had more frequent recessions and inflation was volatile. So it wasn't higher and then stayed there. It was high, low, high, low, and in the trend is up. So we have no sort of naive belief that we're going back to the way the world was, lower for longer and the fed can continue to keep rates at zero or lower. That's not we're never going back to that. It's going to be something different. But we also don't think it's the 70s, we're going to have this cost push inflation. We've always said that we think it's a demand pull inflation. And that demand is waning now as supply picks up. And so that won't create the ebbs and flows. And what we really think we're in is a volatile economic outcome, which includes inflation and includes nominal GDP, includes all the factors, and it's just going to be a lot more volatile, and that's just a different environment. And if you understand that, you can be quite profitable if you understand how to trade it on both sides. It might just fun a question from me then. Does it tell you anything at this point? And how does it influence your thinking about future leadership in this market after a decade of growth dominance on the S&P? Yeah, we're not in the camp that is just going to be one or the other. We think it's going to be a broader kind of market where you get broader participation. Kind of like 2020 and it was broader. Small caps led, right? We had growth and value working together. I could tell you this, the days of, you know, ridiculously priced gross stocks. And by the way, it was dumb to begin with. So that's good. You take that stuff out, and then but that doesn't mean all gross to actually do. It just means you can't overpay for it the way that you could when rates were negative. So we're not going back to that environment, which means you have to focus on companies that can actually operate efficiently in this more volatile economic environment delivered the goods on earnings and then pay a reasonable multiple. You know, it's kind of back to basics. You know, that's kind of the way it was when I first started in the business, you know, getting out to get the training wheels off the bike and learning how to ride again. Hey, Mike, just wonderful to catch up and send our best to the team, what you congratulations. Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley there. Lisa, the best portfolio strategist in the latest institutional investor survey and
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From the Bloomberg interactive broker studios. This is Bloomberg daybreak and for markets this morning it is all about inflation. We are just about three hours or so away from the release of the August consumer price index, read that is going to be very important we assume for the Federal Reserve and its fight against inflation, joining us now ahead of the CPI print Michael McKee, Bloomberg's economics and policy correspondent for Bloomberg radio and television. Mike good to have you with us in studio this morning. You look at the eco screen eco go on the Bloomberg terminal, looks like we're expecting a drop in overall inflation, but a slight uptick in the core reading, what the fed really cares about. Why is that? Well, the car gives you a better picture of where inflation is going because of course the headline is influenced by commodity prices, particularly energy, which is a reason we're going to see dropped today probably is because energy prices, particularly gasoline prices in the U.S., fell significantly during the month of August 7.7%. So we should see a drop in the headline, but there are a number of categories in the core where there is still strength, including housing, the rental price cost that goes into CPI is likely to keep that boosted. Plus, there is a base effect, a high inflation last year. So at this time. So the fed is probably going to look at this as progress, but not nearly sufficient. Is there anything that there isn't anything that the fed can do about base effects? That's going to roll into the reading we get today. What can the fed do at this point to get more of a handle on that core inflation? Well, it's interesting because a lot of people on Wall Street are saying it's not what the fed does in reaction to this CPI report, but what the markets do. If the markets think the fed is going to back off and react positively to dropping the headline CPI, the feeling is that might be a mistake because the fed seems committed to 75 basis points at the next meeting and their view is going to be not necessary but not sufficient in terms of the drop in prices they're going to want to see continued progress and significant progress, particularly in the core. As to how they can bring that about, basically, by keeping rates high enough that demand slows some and then waiting. There isn't much you can do about the speed with which housing goes into. This API, it could be a year before we see the current declines in prices and rents start to impact the CPI report. So the fed's got to keep the pedal to the metal and keep their eyes on inflation and not celebrate too much. You talk to fed speakers central bankers regularly, Mike, have they given you any reason to think that if we did see a drop in the overall inflation print that it would give them reason to let up on the gas? Yeah, they're not saying that. They're basically committed to 75. Feeling at the fed seems to have shifted over the last couple of weeks to from reacting to the data on a month by month basis to deciding we're going to get to a slightly restrictive rate just some above neutral, which different members define different ways some say that's 4% some states just under. But the feeling is they're going to get there and then they're going to turn data dependent. They're going to want to have the economy contracting somewhat. Maybe not shrinking, but growing at a much lower pace. And that should bring down some of the other price pressures out there. Then they leave it there for a while until they're convinced that inflation is definitely going down towards their 2% target. Our last minute here, Mike, given all the factors that go into core CPI, what are you seeing? What are you looking for as the main drivers of core inflation and the reading we could get later this morning? Housing is going to be the main driver. It's 30% of the CPI, so it has a huge weight, which is one of the differences between that and the fed's PCE index that they tend to watch. It has a lower weight out housing. But also new cars prices are still expected to be rising. And then we'll have to see if there's some categories where supply chains are still causing problems. Fed's hoping that starting to normalize but hasn't so far. Yeah. Darkens back to that T word. We don't say anymore, right? Transitory. Our economics and policy correspondent for Bloomberg radio and television helping us get ready for the all important August consumer price index. The overall reading expected to drop four tenths percent according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg two and annual reading of 8.1% while the core that excludes food and energy is expected to rise just a bit by two tenths of a percent to 6.1 year over year. Looking ahead to the market open, futures are showing a little bit of resilience. You've got S&P futures right now up 15 points. Down futures up a 114 and NASDAQ futures are higher by 42 points, ten year treasury up 9 30 seconds the yield. 3.32%. This is Bloomberg. This is a Bloomberg money. Circle is bringing together developers and entrepreneurs from around the world. Join us in San Francisco for circles converge 22 from September 27th to the 30th to shape the future of money and a digital asset ecosystem. Go to converge
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'd say it has to be the BOJ. It's got to be the end. It's amazing. And you might say, well, it's not a butterfly. It's a giant, okay, fine, but it's huge and it's impacting markets and very unclear ways I think going forward. So we've had a lot of people have had a sooner or later coronavirus back away from these target on tenure rates, but the question is when and how. A basic question, Mike, and I say this with great respect for our audience of listeners and viewers. Why should Americans care about a stunning first and second derivative of yen weakness? Yeah, for a few reasons, time. One is that when the BIG moves, global markets feel the impact. And we've seen this a number of times over the years. In fact, even pre COVID has happened on a couple of occasions. So if and when the BOJ does back away from that 25 basis point target, you'll see a very strong ripple effect, maybe even more than that going into U.S. markets during the markets, et cetera. So that could have a pretty big effect. A lot of volatility push up longer term U.S. rates. That's the biggest thing. It also affects terms of trade, of course, but really I said the interest rate impacts the big one. My history of bike point for the BOJ is clearly not one 40 with through it. Is it one 45? Is it one 50? What kind of numbers are you thinking about? Yeah, John, it's interesting at this point, I'd say we're almost in another region, so it's pretty difficult to say, hey, we've been here 5 times in the last 12 years. Here are the sort of entry points that worked. Something north of one 45 probably makes sense, but confidence level right now is very, very low. So anyone who wants to scale in, I'd say, you emphasize that scaling. Don't try to pick the optimal point. You won't find it. Mike, given the concerns that people have about rates rising in the Euro region, particularly because of trying to finance the deficit of the issue in Japan that's going to lead to a lack of buyers for U.S. treasuries than the own U.S. inflationary issues. Are you pushing back against the consensus trade of a couple of months ago to buy duration? Yeah, we think it's prematurely, and it's interesting. And I think you do have to segment it market by market. So take a look at the pricing and the Eurozone right now, for instance, CCB is priced to hike something like a 170 basis points over the balance of this year. Sounds pretty aggressive. But I think is really amazing. And way off base is another 50 basis points in the first half of next year. Think about this scenario. Energy prices skyrocket, you've got a pretty nasty recession, the Eurozone, cold winter, a lot of very unhappy people, and somehow the ECB is still hiking. I don't think so. So it seems to us that's out of bounds. So maybe in that particular case, you could buy duration. But against that, think about the fed, we've got the terminal rate for the fed fund cycle now looking at three 85, three 90, something like that. Probably too low. I suspect that's going to be well to the force. So would not buy duration in the U.S.. And so perhaps in Europe, not in the U.S. case. So just let's hone in a little bit on what you just said. You think that the terminal rate is in the fours. And when do we reach that? You think it's going to be next year and how long will we keep it there? No, I think it's going to be this month. So in terms of the market price and for the terminal rate, the market will bump that up, probably after the set 21 meeting. But I think to your point, so how far out is the market think the fed is going to conclude tightening. It's probably somewhere in the March to June 23 range, but as far as the expectation that happens very soon, the reality of the fed pushing it there probably is 6 9 months down the road. Has this been priced into the equity market? Probably leave that to my colleague, Chris Harvey, but I will say that generally speaking, when you've got Central Bank site and pretty aggressively in QT, it's not a great recipe for risk. I love that when the bond strategist is just like, I'm not going to justify this craziness in the equity market. It's literally what he just did. Wells Fargo might go to catch up. Didn't we hear that from Bruce kasman from JPMorgan this morning? I was being so, so polite. Bruce was talking at the prospect of unemployment going through 5%. He was talking up the prospect of a much deeper downturn. I was sitting there just thinking, as he told Marco, this market calling, does he know this? At least are based on what Bruce kasman said about the economy. Are you saying that mark would just sit at a table by himself and everybody else? So the investment bank covered that. I'm just saying, Bruce casman was talking up 5% unemployment to get inflation back down. That's not bullish equity market fairytale. We've been told. In fairness, taking a step back, you are seeing disagreement within shops pretty pretty violent disagreement, which is healthy, considering the fact that it's really hard to know what's going to happen. And it's hard to know what's getting priced in. That said, hard to see how a four and a half percent interest rate in the U.S. priced in this month is really getting priced into the equity markets and let alone the credit markets. Well, you asked the equity market question, so let's stick on it. That's the U.S.. Let's talk about Europe. We're still off the lows of early July, as far as I can see, July 5th, still off the lows on the Dax, haven't retested them just yet, Lisa and I think we can all sit here and say that over the last 6 weeks, things have got worse not better. In Europe, relative to what people are expecting, 6 weeks ago. There has been some support from some of the energy producers in Europe, right that the shares have done better. And that's sort of something that is offset some of the pain in others, but it raises a good question, right? Are people basically already pricing in the bottom of something that hasn't transpired yet, even as other people say, we're looking at the worst case scenario. This is a really difficult moment for the Europeans, at least to build on something that my Schumacher said moments ago, Tom. If the ECB has to back away from rate hikes, I keep going back to this question and at least I've gone back and forth online offline about it in the FX market. Does that help the currency? Or does that happen? No,
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Markets are pricing in, obviously, a higher terminal funds rate of getting close to three and three quarters. So the question is, is the fed actually going to be able to engineer another 125 150 basis points of rate hikes from here. And that is not clear. I mean, I don't have a lot of conviction either way on that. I mean, even if goods inflation goes to zero and services inflation is at 5, that's still a three and a half percent core PCE or core CPI. I don't know if the fed stops hiking at three and a half percent unless growth is probably below two. So I think it's this balancing act between growth and inflation. I like to think about it in nominal GDP terms. You know, if you add those two up, if those two added up are below four, let's say maybe that's enough for the fed to pause. But if they remain above for, I think the fed probably keeps going. Well, John was talking about the work being done at the short end and where that leaves the two year yield is about 45 basis points above that of the ten year yield. How much further can this inversion go? What will the depths ultimately be and how does your assumption of what the height of the fed funds rate factor into that? Yeah, you know, that curve inversion has been, you know, not totally unsurprising in a world where inflation is sticky. Central banks all over the world are raising rates and growth is moderating and slowing. You do see these flat inverted curves. The question is, how deep can that inversion go? Negative 40 ish call it twos tens. Can it go to negative 80 or negative a hundred? Sure, I mean, if the fund's rate ends up at four this cycle. Negative a hundred months. Brian Weinstein and Morgan Stanley said the same thing last week too. Sure. I mean, we're actually thinking over the next, you know, we're long-term thinkers as you all know in long-term investors over the next three years, what is the curve going to look like? And I think it's going to be back to the old, you know, bull steep and over the fed by that point will be cutting rates and you'll have this big bowl steep in her butt in the meantime, you know, it's really unclear which direction that curved shape is going. We're pretty flat right now in terms of the current positioning because of the uncertainty. But yeah, I mean, if the fed keeps going, the curve continues to invert. So Mike, given that, what business to high yield spreads have been down at 400 basis points. Yeah, we are in the camp, you know, that you're supposed to really take some chips off the table here. I mean, he had credit quality has been sound. We've just started to see the first sign of some downgrades in the high yield market and some very specific sectors like cruise lines and healthcare, but by and large, the upgrades continue to outnumber downgrades, credit quality is good. These companies
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"More of it. Michael, the clear theme here, and particularly off the important panel yesterday, is the fed and other central banks are resolute. My reading of Meltzer and a Schwartz Friedman Richard Timberlake of the Georgia school is simple. That's baloney. They always succumb to the political zeitgeist of political pressure. Is it going to be the same way this time? I suspect the fed and the other central banks will feel a ton of pressure from the politicians time. It's almost inevitable, but the question is how quickly they I wouldn't say cave, but have that impact their decision making. And for chairman Powell, in particular, it's really a challenge because he's got to look at that wall down at the fed and say, you know what? Arthur burns worst chairman ever. William Miller probably a close number two. I don't want to be number three. I've got to fight inflation. And I think that that personal legacy is going to outweigh the politics for him quite some time. Michael Schumacher harsh today. Well, Mike, given that harsh view and given some of the bearishness that you have currently looking at this market, how do we get to 4% on a ten year treasury yield given that we are looking at such a pessimistic scenario that usually says people back in a bonds? At least it's really interesting. I think you've got to break it down into where does inflation in the cycle and what sort of real rate is going to be implied or expected at that point in time. So we think core probably core inflation that is and the cycle may be two 50, perhaps a bit higher. And real yields, at least in our view, Wells Fargo have to be one 50 plus. So that gets you to 4%. You might say, well, wow, one 50 with a recession. How can that happen? Think about the last cycle. Granted fairly mild, but still, at the end of that cycle, you have the real ten year rate about one 15. So one 50 with incredible inflation and really the fed wanted to take out insurance against that inflation Genie coming back out of the bottle. That seems pretty reasonable to us. That's how we get the four. What is 4% on a treasure yield for a ten year treasure yield to U.S. equities? That's a really rough ride. So I think if you do get 4% on tens, certainly speed manners, let's say it happens sometime around the end of this year. It takes stocks down quite a bit. I'm not sure if they get down toward 3000. I'll leave that to Chris Harvey, but it's going to be a pretty painful journey. We'll catch up with Chris later and ask him that. Mike, I just want to finish up with your reflections on yesterday. What was the big stand that thing for you? Listening to president Lagarde, listening to chairman Powell, listening to governor Bailey too. When I listened to those three central bankers, John, it strikes me the ECB has got the toughest job. Certainly it's most closely impacted by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. And I listened to Christine Lagarde and say, well, okay, so the ECB's history of rate hikes is not particularly great. And on top of that, you've got the question of gas flows. I would circle. I mean, circle and bold red July 21st in the calendar, it's the ECB meeting, and also perhaps more importantly, that's the day the Nord stream pipeline comes off maintenance. Will the gas go back on? How much that's going to drive policy for the ECB. So they're all uncomfortable, but I think that's a Central Bank. It's got the biggest challenge ahead. Fascinating stuff, Mike. My shoemaker there of Wells Fargo just finishing up on the ECB, their TK as you look at Euro dollar clinging to one O four. The limits paper, the global system certainly now real near a one 20 print, not a headline. I mean, I guess one 19s a bigger deal than a one 20. John, but I'm sorry, foreign exchange speaks volumes. What's not moving today? You know what? It's Japanese. Yeah, and maybe they've got the day off over there. I'm unsure. I don't have yen at one 37, but you got to triangulate. You can't just look John at dollar or at one pair like Euro dollar. You've always got to triangulate it with a second pair to pick up the three relationships and you do that today through Euro yen, which shows you, week Euro. Right now, focused on that ACP July 21, at least what a tough moment for the European Central Bank to my Schumacher's point. The ECB president wants to be gradual. We've seen the mistakes of hiking cycles in the past, going back to the last one in 2011, that didn't last long. Looking at this situation, she wants to come out of the gate gradually, 25 basis points. There will be some on that committee who are pushing for more. Especially in light of the gasoline prices that are getting a little bit out of control and can only be a dealt with based on reducing some of the demand. To Mike's point, George cereal is just publishing moments ago saying we are increasingly concerned that the unfolding energy situation in Germany is going to percolate over and could potentially present some real downside risk to the Euro, particularly near the end of the summer. And this is the dilemma that EM central banks have been facing for a long, long time, but defines the EM Central Bank in dilemma time. You have a choice. Do you support growth or bring down inflation? That's the tough one. You know, monetary one O one. Yes, I think that's the answer, John, but I'm going to go back to the dispersion of the pain President Biden flight while he's going to speak this morning, I believe in Madrid. John, what time is it? 8 o'clock. 8 o'clock. Okay, fine. Schedule 8 o'clock. In the middle of my opening of that hour, that's just, it's unfair. I imagine it'll be like some. Well, okay, thanks, I'm lucky. That makes me feel as a president ever been on time. That's true. Have I ever been on time? That's true, too. John is true. I'm sorry. They're going to adapt to the politics of the moment. They always do. Well, this central banker is not adapting to this market. And as my Schumacher of Wells Fargo said just a moment ago and this is probably the line of the morning so far. This is a feature. Not a bug. We're going to see more of it. Amy, get The White House on the line. I gotta talk to him. Futures down 1.35% on a S&P from New York. This is Bloomberg. Now the latest news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. Tom Lisa John, the January 6th
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Morning to you and thank you so much and let's start in China which is locking down Shanghai in two phases for mass COVID testing The city of 25 million people were first locked down areas in the east of the city including the financial district for four days starting today The west will close for the same period following that residents are banned from leaving home and public transport will also be suspended Now Ukrainian and Russian negotiating teams are set to resume in person talks and turkey later today This is President Biden says he isn't seeking a regime change in Moscow clarifying a comment he made at the end of the European trip that Vladimir Putin quote can not remain in power The BBC reports at president Vladimir zelensky says Ukraine is preparing to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal And HSBC has scrubbed references to war in Ukraine in its research report replacing it with language like conflict That's according to an FT report the word swap comes as a bank resist pressure to close its business in Russia Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in war than 120 countries I'm Leanne gerrans This is Bloomberg at Caroline Thank you so much I'm going with our top stories Now a far from a fleeting trend the UK tech sector is here to stay Manchester Birmingham and Glasgow are the leading UK tech cities outside of London according to the latest UK tech cities report from CBRE But continued regionalization and access to a skilled workforce are also crucial for the UK to sustain its edge joining us now is Mike geddy who is head of technology sector vertical at CBRE And who regularly produce this UK tech cities report Mike good morning thanks for being with us Why have these cities done well in particular Good morning I think it's a broader trend around talent If you were to examine the growth to tech sector originate across the UK it is predominantly driven by access to skilled workforce and access to emerging talent from universities And you can see a correlation between the cities that are thriving are those with the anchoring of strong education establishments that specialize in particularly computer science but other emerging trends and skills But Mike given we've got this work from home boom especially in tech how much will it even matter where workers are in the future isn't it a boon for cities that have a lower cost of living I think definitely affordability and the attraction of the city lifestyle outside of some of the major cities like London where affordability became constrained and people started to see choice But quite interesting that we've seen a mirroring in the UK as we saw in the U.S. where rather than a complete distribution of talent to anywhere in the UK we've seen a concentration of that movement and mobility into major cities So I think you'll continue to see an investment from major occupiers in major cities but not necessarily so focused on London as the primary investor in the UK How important is it in terms of we talk about regionalization and we know a lot the government wants this leveling up agenda how important is this that these cities are getting these jobs are they well paying jobs and how many of them are coming I think definitely the quality of the jobs and the salary levels are measured alongside those in London We're seeing good quality investment in quite high skilled jobs Leveling up I think instead we've seen in the media sector alongside tech growing in the regional offices clearly a beneficiary of that following on the heels of Manchester And I managed to continue to be the number one regional hub but closely followed as you've seen in the report by Glasgow And Birmingham and it's interesting to see some of the FinTech investment moving outside of London as some of the major banks seek to create regional hubs including we saw recently Goldman Sachs into Birmingham and we've seen further investment into Glasgow from JPMorgan and Buckley So it's the quality is high The distribution of talent and I guess the salaries related to these roles is measured alongside alongside the skills And Mike you mentioned FinTech we know Brexit has had a big hit to FinTech but how is Brexit impacted the rest of tech in UK cities Well essentially we've recently produced another report looked at gaming sector as a sort of emerging and fast growing sector And you saw a thriving growth in not just the major cities but interestingly in some of the smaller cities as founders of the gaming industry looked to grow their businesses locally rather than fill the need to move And I think if you look at other emerging trends around software around artificial intelligence the university is going to drive the next generation of the trends whether that's in quantum computing AI machine learning And I think that will be the growth engine alongside some of the more traditional tech sectors we've seen over the past Yeah Mike very interesting Thanks so much for joining us this morning It might get ahead of technology sector vertical at CBRE who have come out with their latest UK tech cities report In fact in a couple of weeks you've got tech UK.
"mike givens" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's a dance between the fed and markets The good news is that markets have been aggressively repricing future titer money supply and tighter fed policy This isn't one of those moments where there's so much uncertainty The fed wants to sort of get out and control of the narrative It's a dynamic economy It's not linear These are not linear decisions This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich The good morning everyone Jonathan farrow Alicia brammer since time keen on radio on television and historic day for economics indeed in historic day for the markets Mike Wilson will join us with caution on the equity markets in moments but John farrow the swirl that mister Wilson has to take in including history at the Bank of England What do you want to begin It's been 17 years since we had back to back rate hikes at a Bank of England We got one on threadneedle street 15 basis points last month 25 basis points this morning It could have been 50 That was not the 5 to four vote We were looking for four members of the MPC looking for a 50 basis point hike at the Bank of England and governor Bailey's saying something to him which I think is going to be controversial The living cost crisis would be worse without rate hikes That's what spooked them Inflation is higher than expected It could peak north to 7 in the UK sometime in spring That's where they want to move Others Danny blanche from our Dartmouth Tom he's taking completely the opposite one Yes He thinks you're hurting people more by making an interest rate move now The guard in 30 minutes in front for our man is currently will monitor that press conference and you'll see it on Bloomberg radio on Bloomberg television and hear it I should say as well And John what's so important you mentioned is 20 minutes ago You go from what the fed is doing including the testimony today to the long march maybe not in the Bank of England to the dreaded word transitory and Frankfurt Let's see what's on the Bank of England's ready to go They're moving The Federal Reserve's going to go next Okay the ECB thinks it's transitory still What's the difference between the Euro zone It's inflation dynamic The Bank of England its inflation dynamic the Federal Reserve its inflation dynamic in a word Italy The ECP has some different things to worry about We're not going to choke when it comes to European markets Tom we're not going to talk about BTPs and you can't eat those That's the problem for the ECB and that's been the problem for the asset purchase program and that will be the issue as they try and move away from very very loose Monetary policy Italy is a thermostat for England You know for Europe I should say Lisa I look at this and what's so non transitory is the politics the president will visit New York City today on domestic matters including crime that we saw on Fifth Avenue yesterday the services for a police officer here in New York dead in the line of duty and you know I look at all that's going on that economics finance investment is buttressed up against and it speaks volumes about the haves and the have nots Yeah an inflation really one of the polarizing debates right now And really to governor Bailey's point there is a huge divergence between the analysts who look at rate hikes as tools to prolong the cycle versus tools to cut off the cycle And there is a small distinction here that is vast when it comes to whether people are arguing for a tightening cycle or not At this inflationary moment Here's the data quickly to get to Mike Wilson John Facebook down and features down with it And that's that futures negative 2.1% on the S&P 500 down by one four percentage point yields are higher breaking back towards one 80 on tens at one 79 66 That's the treasury market Tom I can tell you when the guilt market yields a much higher particularly at the front end to the UK a two year guilt yield right now up 9 basis points to 1.1% 12 months ago in negative territory It will be interesting to see with short introduction Mike Wilson chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley He is cautious on the equity market Mike Wilson you're Ellen's edner has a negative 215,000 statistics for the job report Maybe it's a one off maybe it's not Fold in this American economy into your caution you walk away from the bull case Yeah look I mean I think that the whole case is always that Goldilocks would persist into this year and that was not our viewer Base case was that nobody will actually be challenged and of course the bear case is that you slide into something even worse than that And I would say if you're talking to this program last night we were leaning more towards the bear than the bull So what's going on As you mentioned you know we now have a negative forecast for non farm payrolls tomorrow The question is is it just an overcrowd you know kind of final pair back and hiring or is it something bigger We've had this narrative of fire and ice and we think it's gonna be icier That doesn't mean recession doesn't mean negative payroll numbers for the next 5 months But the idea that we're not gonna have some payback here from what was a spectacular kind of rebound during the pandemic we think it's naive and you guys were talking about something I think that's really being overlooked which is this bifurcation between the lower income cohorts and the upper income cohorts You know without the government transfers and with this inflationary burden they are the ones burying it And it's going to slow demand So I'm probably a bit more cautious on consumption in the first half of this year than my colleagues and also my peers around the street Mike given the team believe that fits over growth will overtake fear over interest rate hikes And I wonder how that separates you from the rest of the street when it just comes to sector allocation Beneath the surface of the S&P at the moment So I think most people would argue that if we're going to have a slowdown and you want to go right back into the high multiple gross stocks And the problem with that analysis in my view or that conclusion is that a lot of the gross stocks are also going to see a payback in demand You know I don't want to pick out one sector I think it's pervasive across a lot of different sectors But let's just take technology as an example Technology is inherently a cyclical industry You know I'm pretty old I followed the industry Industry for a long time And I remember when it was treated as such And for whatever reason now I think people view technology as being that it's nondiscretionary spending It's not And if we see companies start to struggle with margins there's going to be a pair back in spending and also a payback in spending from the overconsumption there too So I think the strategy that we're employing right now is high quality but with a more defensive bias than a growth bias because the defense of stocks the stability of earnings is going to be more protected And they're expensive too but they're not as expensive as some of the growth stocks still Mike how far have we gotten to your bear case given some of the pitfalls that we've seen the lack of a safety night behind the likes of Facebook and now at the sort of commensurate losses that we're seeing in PayPal and also Spotify Yeah I mean okay so let's get into it The fire scenario I think everybody's on board with that In fact people probably paying attention to much to that at the bond market's price for a lot of tightening And the equity market is somewhat priced for that I don't think that's the main issue It's now the slowdown And as I like to say there's a little bit of peloton in everyone Okay there's a little bit of Netflix in everyone There's a little bit of PayPal in everyone right And now maybe there's a little bit of Facebook and everyone So it's just broadening us I think if you would ask votes a month or two ago peloton was a one off They were covered beneficiaries But the reality is is that a lot of businesses benefited from this sort of pull forward during COVID and the stimulus So this is what we got to get through now This sort of reset on expectations for growth That's right Our bare cage look our barricade I rotate our base case for the year end is 4400 okay Not very exciting Our beer case is 39 I remember you got to overshoot the dataset So even in our base case we're going to probably trade 4000 pretty easily sometime in the first half of the year We probably can get more bullish on the index Jonathan surveillance question here Johnny's killing me Mike Wilson needs to understand there's no peloton in me I was wondering whether there was some peloton in your tongue I don't know what Mike thinks Thank you Continue with the barricades It might take me to my final question In conversations like these with you in the coming 12 months will we be talking more about single names with you away from just yearend price targets on the S&P is that where the business is coming at the moment for.
"mike givens" Discussed on Straight Outta Vegas with RJ Bell
"So let's start it off with our hot place. Yes you got it. The hot plays for a week one. These guys may not be at. Mike's top five. But they're guys that you gotta get in your lineup this week because a favourable matchups maybe. It's just the right time of year to play the guy. Mike's given the a bunch of different names that maybe on the outside of that top five that are on the outside of that top five that you should consider playing hot plays for week one of the twenty twenty one season one of my favorite wide receivers to watch and curious because he's back and reunited and it feels so good look at the carolina panthers looking at robbi anderson against his former team. Look for some fireworks in. that means yes. I am bullish on. Sam darnold a new lease on life. I am worried about that offensive line. I'm not gonna lie There they're going to be some free releases And some problematic moments along the way. But gimme those two darnold A little less on the bullishness but robbie anderson certainly a guy. I want and how about trevor lawrence going up against those houston texans mentioned James robinson good receiver out of the backfield. So he'll be active there Trevor lawrence again. The offensive line. We got probably seven or eight teams. That that's my biggest curiosity in week. One not that. We're going to learn everything but the level of competence and for these young quarterbacks in particular like trevor lawrence the knowledge to get rid of the damn ball right as opposed to get bludgeoned as he did in the preseason. so we'll take a look at trevor lawrence. go on another hot plate jacoby myers..
"mike givens" Discussed on Tipsy Tales
"The investigators also found the knife a knife that had been purchased at the dollar tree and then it also had. Yeah so now. They're starting to think though. And now. This is like years after what assist six five or six years after betsy ms killed now. They're like starting to think. Oh damn hoops. And there's new people like in charge too so but betsy but she had knives from the dollar tree. She had the pens and paper and all of that was bought at the dollar trace another like. Yeah you fucking whore you. There was a swatch carpet. The was found by police appeared to have been positioned to protect a rug and hubs home from his buddy so police investigators were Anna that doesn't me okay. So on august twenty third hop was arrested and charged with first degree murder and armed criminal action upon being arrested. She asked to visit the bathroom. Where in the entire gatien room. They left her alone and should was a pimp a pen on the table And she knows there's a camera there so she thinks she's being slide and she kinda slides the pen with her water bottle and then she tucks behind in her pants like behind her and then they allow her to go use the bathroom and well while she's in there she's like feeling for the veins and her neck like so she knows where to she's gonna kill herself So she goes in the bathroom she you then hear them scream like pam bam bam get an ambulance pam. Because when she on the bathroom she starts stabbing herself in the neck and in the risks. Draining killer soft. So they're like. Oh yeah. that's not guilt right. So so in her mugshots. You see like these giant bandages on her neck. Her work don't work bitch anyway. So now assistant prosecutor phil rohan wedge. Growing a wedge. I don't know you know i'm terrible. I don't know described the acts of the contract with As a consciousness of guilt bail was set at two million dollars. On december sixteenth grand jury indicted up on the charges have appeared in court on january thirty first now they all were saying throughout all the news conferences and everything. This woman is never going to admit her guilt. She will never say. I did this anyway. She didn't elf guilty plea. So that means she never had to admit guilt But she did get a life sentence so but she's still never had and then there's phone calls than they have. You can also listen to those between her and her husband And she say she's all proud of herself like yet. No way i was. They were waiting. They wanted me to sam guilty. I'm mike given that satisfaction you superpower cocky bitch anyway as a condition condition of her plea agreement She doesn't face the death penalty to a sentence to life without parole in august. Two thousand nineteen she serving a sentence blah blah blah blah. Okay now let me jump to this part. So she's in there for life. Well home my god. I told you i told you. In september twenty twenty helps husband markup filed for divorce describing their marriage as era air retrievable. Broken that same month hub filed for motion to vacate and her conviction claiming. She was pressured to take a play. It was denied. The following march.
"mike givens" Discussed on Marketing Secrets
"Them. Because that's you know that's we're doing god's work at the end of the day so yeah and it's exciting to see other people involved. You know young men out there. So what grabs your heart on it. Like what was the initial. I'm gonna do something. I'm not just going to stand back. I didn't know about it like a volcano. A little bit. And so i remember and i remember going online and reading about in washington videos and stuff and i was like. Oh my gosh. I had no idea this was happening. And how can you not after you. You know i remember that i was blogging. I'm pretty sure that they have changed. The direction of life forever visibility. Yeah h how can you not. Your kid is taking. What would you do now. I can't imagine that someone says something mean to my kids. I'm ready to go to school. I mean. Do you think it's going to come to a point. I agree that they can come to. The world has shut down until we find these kids in other words crisis coming in. I mean honestly. Yeah until he comes again our best. Until but i'm talking about life where i'm talking about shutting not done about where we all say child comes up missing. Everybody in the community will come together to where we say. Okay for the next thirty days like every veteran every you know every person that believes in children and our future we're like going to use every ounce of like energy and focus to like find these children because there's gonna be away there's gotta be a ways if they're they just locked up or they just is it just too hard. I don't know the most of a tough because they don't like doesn't big fear initially got involved with timothy. Something still my kid. It doesn't say how it works. She's like it happens sometimes because the traffic is don't want to pick a high profile person with a bunch of money. You can search you and take you out. Raise the kids. they split because it takes ones. Don't have parents. The parents don't have money. They the resource they had taken the implications because they just want so the kid they make the money selling their product right. So it's like they're not looking for they're trying to the people go after people who don't have a voice they can't fight back and say that's where a lot of that stuff's happening and it's the the americans who were flying in different places different countries to where he can. Yeah that's messed up. They americans the ones who are you'll ever gonna mission or choose. We're we're planning on going. Why supposed to go over one this year. Covert hit been nervous. Like i watched it on film and it's horrible way ahead. Imagine seeing the kids. I don't know but it seems like you work. The village impact like we don't those impact. And then when i went there and and lake experienced it like a change in the became part of me. You know what i mean so probably wants to add because i feel like to help next level has to be able to figure out. Solution is hard of that is so. I think i will at some point Speaking of atlas by one of the things we're atlas. I felt that. Yeah yeah and you just wonder you know where you feel like you said you feel like you could do so much and then you look at your miyako billions on the white house sex traffic council. He his sister was rescued. He rescued after twenty six years ago. Something crazy great guy. But he's been fighting for a long time. I remember when we i. I got into it. He just like man. You can literally wanna do everything. But he's like you just have to focus on some part because there's so much to this you know and i did you feel that too as being involved because you feel like you're still powerful in the field despite what he was up in children and you say you are a thousand four or five thousand eight. Amazing does so there's still to maine's are really love yourself and it's really something evident in everything so just wanting to ask where that really comes from on in your one. Yeah i don't think it's true so Number two thousand dollars and what was happening late. Now it's weird one of the reasons. Why is because we give ourselves house. Mike given everything in the world made an something they do beets worldly. Don't get hurt. And like i feel like fight. Fight acknowledged the gifts. They dig lever the lake All as we especially entre but by two zero then working for the next step in the ideas that he's awesome deal. Mike i'm remembering and we're going. It's not my way never read about this. That said this was. The path is showing up. He answers there. This coming from right. And i don that were either That is badly can take into you. Something that he gets more no do something giving keeps before. And it's just like i think knowledge and things like i don't want to stop us trouble mission right even so big part of it on number two fit for me up. I wanna other. They're not scared the anyone. I didn't think more people from power to do it. And that's great because i think people should be a you know there's so much negative talkable talk about every other woman.
"mike givens" Discussed on KNBR The Sports Leader
"Feel where I'm going here? Well, I am And, you know, you think First of all, you got a lot of guys who have something proved guys who are at the last year, their contracts. They have something to prove. And and I think that's essential. But there, you know, you start talking about the nuclear supposing and felt Crawford. You're talking about us spying of this clubhouse for a decade. And now these guys were coming in, and they very quietly have taken upon themselves to answer the criticism. Are these guys still good? Are they still are they still work? What they were worth four years ago or two years ago or 10 years ago, and and they've taken the task to prove the naysayers wrong, And I think that's a very powerful thing. But see, I think, too. You know you have A lot of younger guys who are starting to get to the point. You know, you have a Gausman who's never been this good. And now he's coming into to the pinnacle of his career. And this guy looks like he's ready to go. You could say the same thing for fiscal funny. And and you've got young arms who are pushing for spots in the in the bullpen, and that's all positive. That's all positive by, so there's a lot of really good things they're happening and You know? Is it a surprise? Well, I mean, yeah, no way. But you know what? It makes sense when you start thinking about it. All right, which I did. So let's talk about this serious coming up here. My crooked joining us on the guest list. So here's the deal tonight. 7:10 P.m. little later. Logan Web versus Yu Darvish. Saturday. 5 40 de Sclafani versus Blakes Now and then Sunday, Kevin Gausman has been pushed back. A little growing tightness on hopefully is okay 1 10 and it said. TBA on one of the looks of the other one, said Joe Must, Grove might go the Mr no hitter, so we'll watch that. Here's my question. Mike. Given what you know of the Alfa competitive males of Major League baseball are the country's looking at the Giants differently because the project was obsessed with the Dodgers like, Oh, my God, the Dodgers and they quotes Mike, they're saying this is the Syriza of everybody in America is looking at this serious and Um, I guess my question is sort of to fold a have they have they perilously overlooked the Giants to their own detriment or be are they now ratcheted up for the Giants because the Giants took two out of three from them first time around. Oh, definitely. Yes. I think that the chance you're definitely on the radar. Now, I think before that the Padres look past him. And why wouldn't you? You mean there was? You know if you're listening to all the preseason prognosticators, you know your look players are scouts. They read the articles. They are aware of what's being said, and a lot of time they buy into it. And then you know you may roll into a serious early in the season. Don't take a team. You know as seriously as you should. And boom, you lose a serious well, the second time you see them. You look at where they're on the standings. You look at what they did the last time you played him. And they definitely have the attention. Now the Padres happy, you know they're paying attention to the Giants. So totally, but it's It's also reflective and how they stacked up the line. You're going to see basically the three best guys. And you know all those years when the Giants were winning world championships. You just kind of got used to team stacking up the rotation for you. So I think it's your ultimate compliment than organization can pay another organization, Mr Howe. Have a couple of days and then they stack up the best arms against you because they feel they needed to beat you. And to me, that's a compliment. And so from the Giants perspective, you know, go down there and when a serious I think that that makes a bigger statement than what you did The last time you want to seriously last one put you on the map. Now. Now you can validate you know where you are in the standings and I also like the matchup tonight. Logan Web is coming off of seven inning shut out performance on you know he was effectively why we talked about that in a show here about a week ago, but He gets a chance to go down. Take down an ace. He's patient. Yu Darvish right now, and Darvish is still on the ball. Great. He's turned into a glorified dukie balder and ah lot of sluts. Soft stuff kind of Ah, weird. A scenario in that he throws 95 plus, but it's an opportunity for Logan Web to take down an ace to get momentum. Take game one beat a good pitcher beat a great pitcher beat us. On opening day pitcher and that would mean a whole lot into that clubhouse. So there's a big opportunity in the next game. Yeah, it's going great serious, and this whole month to six with the Padres six with the Dodgers is gonna be awesome. A little bit on 10 teas just on the other team. He wasn't around the first time the Giants played him and just kind of what he brings the energy and our life force that he brings and always on the flawless player, But you know, the Giants have to pitch to him this time. They didn't last time. Well, maybe he got hurt in the syriza against them. And so they saw him in the first game, and that was it. He got on the shelf and later on the I held him. He's a great player. I mean, he is and he's fun to watch. I mean, I don't think if you're a baseball fan doesn't matter who your team is. You want to watch this guy play? I mean, he's that good. Interesting about the guy when you know he was trying to make the club is a rookie. They had just picked up Manny Machado and And they were thinking. Well, you know, Machado made a case for bad. Bring this guy up. He's ready to go. It's ready to go. Well, they thought that Machado would would take him under his wing. Well, he makes the team and it turns out that Patty Stakes Machado under his wing, which is an unbelievable thing when you think about it, but Here's a second generation guy who has a very good presence. He has a good humbleness about his incredible talent, and now he started to blossom. Every time you walk out there and watch the guy played yourself, miraculously with the Glover with the back. So, you know, I think too is you have you're gonna beat a team Betemit, their full strength. Yeah, beat them at their full strength. Make let every guy be healthy. Let every guy be, you know, stack up your rotation. Then I go out there and kick her butt. Then when you leave San Diego that would truly means something hate to be the best. You got to beat the best and seems like the Giants. They're fearless doing into these things from the big picture to the little picture..
"mike givens" Discussed on De RetailTrends Podcast
"Oh yeah and leers. Make an oprah show mashona who you're so comunicacion within weeks now and yeah the nassir. Slightest carpet nas to clone leo clone. Who vinko the fact look vicks and okajima velvet. Ding numeric advocate. Carter to not even not commissioning jerry. Often as kind of coffee do ship for bags. Domke excellent open the open barn accomplish you're gonna onslaught by scheduling manager at a is on them. And the sexy hooper bob. You are devoting antibiotic states for mike given the policy. You could not look at heart and super neutral on on. She don't neither is willing. You guys get refugee evoked. Dart vinca come forward. You can back. yeah now all of tobacco monaco's banning road soap mart vodafone hula hoop. And he'll appreciate there and exclusive night of equal passi dotted slight pause better. He the kospi premier and on boxing houston dotting all that last remains a now starter economical alcohol puget a marketing in costa the phone. From my life on sears and had clean veatch the malaysian maloka of mea. Usual nubrik edgy miniature. Ever stop all the ones are behind the voted out and in displays hanukkah pash in homage lauper antidote short. Titleist layers vimpelcom. Okay and and elson counter winkle through asia and dot dot the. They'll buddha no must also markelle velten an selling in the house my nash. Jorda fooling alka. Mon on dot may the in vehicle and on lisa carter three shelf onto for us and that they left the carpets admit beurre. I'd say the accelerator devoting day and medical Counter beta but the box walk the lease over on mir the donald tour and why the nevada ferrelli copa.