18 Burst results for "Michelle Gavin"

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

The President's Inbox

05:58 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

"Some cases have provided important financing have provided military equipment to some of the parties on the ground particularly two ethiopians that they might have influence and be able to send kenedy escalating messages. You've had recent reports suggesting that it's possible. The ethiopians have accessed the new military equipment from iran. Which if this is true. Obviously raises concerns for a number of international actors. but again there's lots of maybes. It's very hard to verify a lot of this information and you do have the ethiopian government in addis. You know suggesting that there are foreign hands involved assisting the teepee ls that their imperialist machinations afoot in again very difficult to find any evidence for this. Either you mentioned the diplomacy of us. Push l'envoi jeff feldman maybe michelle get you put your old innoc- senior director hat on in to speak to to question one. What are the us interests in this crisis. How are they affected in second. What is the united states can and should be doing sure well. The downside risks for the united states are significant right state collapse in ethiopia in addition to being a humanitarian disaster that would wire response means even more instability in somalia. Which is a you know a project that for decades at the. Us has invested in trying to bring some stability to that country in and get a handle on international terrorist threat that has emanated from somalia. it also complicates the transition in sudan yet another decades long. Us foreign policy priority to see a different form of governance in sudan when that is certainly not amenable to terrace now were spent even more importantly. There's a moment where sudan has the opportunity to move in a more democratic direction. So you have these longstanding stabilization projects at risk from this kind of fragility you have the potential refugee flows which will not be contained only within africa or the horn of africa that can again inflame sort of the kind of populace yetlis ethno nationalist sentiments in parts of europe conceivably. That are problematic. Certainly for the biden administration's overall agenda. And then have the opportunity costs piece of this. Where one reason the. Us was so enthusiastic about prime minister. Abby at the beginning was the prospect of an ethiopian that was not repressive which never looked sustainable..

kenedy ethiopian government jeff feldman Us sudan somalia addis iran michelle ethiopia africa biden administration europe Abby
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

The President's Inbox

03:32 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

"So you've got ethnic militia being mobilized from entirely new states that hadn't been a part of this conflict before the notion of kind of a mass mobilization all of which of course is a recipe for human rights disaster. These militias don't have a lot of training will and you know to be fair similarly on the to gray inside this sudden recruitment right of angry to granz who were shocked at the treatment they endured in the earlier stages conflict. These two are not professional fighters and you do recently have reports of communities having been raised by teepee l. fighters on the advance. So you're getting less professional fighters from more places with different agendas. It's not clear to me that prime minister abby can actually control all of these forces that he could get them to stand down if he asked them to and it's it feels very much like a conflict spiraling out of control. Let's talk about that. Spiraling ought to control one of the things that can happen. When countries are faced with great internal conflicts is someone comes along and tries to mediate offers. Good offices have. We seen any action on that front weather from regional neighbours or the africa union. Well absolutely you had recently. The sudanese offer to try and mediate between the two grains and And the federal government is was quickly rejected not surprisingly in some ways because there is right now a border conflict with sudan in chicago. There's a fraught set of diplomatic issues. That sudan ethiopian. Egypt are unsuccessfully. This point working through around access tonight waters but you also just recently had turkey. Offer to mediate between sudan-ethiopia and to try and assist with this internal conflict as well so i think that very few international actors can look at the prospect of state collapse in country hundred ten million strong in the horn of africa the twelfth most populous country in the world. That's right. it's a very large population in a strategically very important heart of the world that had for many years ethiopia for many years was an exporter of security right. Providing peacekeeping forces in south sudan in somalia and a real diplomatic heavyweight in the region now potentially exporting instability. There are many conflicting interests in the horn of africa. Many external actors in competition with each other for influence in access for this is in no one's interest. Michelle are we seeing any evidence that other countries other than eritrea are intervening in the conflict. You made passing reference to the tensions between ethiopia in egypt having to do with ethiopia's construction of the grand renaissance dam Have you seen any meddling by the egyptians were greatly threatened by the dam. Are we seeing any others. Who might be trying to put their thumb on the scale. In terms of what's happening in ethiopia. Well there are always rumors and accusations. There's a lot less evidence. So i would say this. There's a set of actors in the gulf who are important influential in the horn in ethiopia. And deniro atreya. And this is one reason i think why jeff feldman the new use special envoy for the horn has spent quite a bit of time talking to them rotties talking to the saudis and others in the hopes that these actors who in.

sudan granz prime minister abby ethiopia africa union federal government africa Egypt chicago somalia eritrea Michelle egypt deniro atreya jeff feldman
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

The President's Inbox

04:08 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

"That's right in the era are a you know. A group that the four to grain dominance enjoyed a lot of power in ethiopia. They're very important part right. Now of prime minister abe's constituency. So my son says michelle that the fighting early on really went in favor of the ethiopian military in its allied forces but that changed earlier this summer the degrades turn the tables. You sort of walk through how that fighting progressed. Sure will you right. Early on to grand suffered very serious losses can what was left of the dplf sort of melted away to to fight a guerrilla war and reconstitute itself in the mountains and there is a great deal of military experience in the tepe elf. They also appear to have had a lot of success in recruiting formerly civilian to gray ins. And you know the reporting suggests that this is because of the brutality in the atrocities that were seen in the first part of this conflict attacks on health care facilities widespread sexual violence in in rate. Just a really horrifying said if conditions that appear to have rallied within tigray more support for the teepee ellis. So eventually the teepee aleph appears to have been able to kind of turn the tide of this conflict and you had a few months ago a very surprising in precipitous withdrawal of federal forces from tigray. A kind of unilateral declaration of a ceasefire from the federal government. That appears to have been kind of a response to very serious military losses that federal forces had sustained a mind impression. Is that call for ceasefire. Didn't lead to an actual cease-fire in. I'm not mistaken degrade forces have now moved into both ohara. In the far if i understand the geography of ethiopia correctly the latter movement is potentially strategically significant because it gives the teepee aleph at least in theory. The ability to cut off ethiopia's rail and road access to djibouti in the sea. Where i believe something. Like ninety five percent of ethiopia's trade comes through which has led to a big argument about what objectives. Do the teepee left. Now have you have any sense of of where the teepee aleph is headed. Are they simply securing their surroundings. Or are we looking at the beginning of a march to addis. I wish i knew. But you're you're absolutely right in your observations. You know the the so called. Ceasefire also seemed to come with essentially a state of siege where there was no access to tigray for humanitarian or journalists was difficult for anyone in grade access banks so that the t. p. l. s. public statements suggest. You know we can't live in a state of siege. They claim that the push into a far is about ensuring that they will not be encircled in this way. But you now have reports that the dplf has made common cause with the joe l. a. The ramon liberation army which is another entity that's been declared a terrorist group by federal authorities. It's a bit of a splinter of romo opposition movement. It's difficult to see what that has to do with with seizure or fear of encirclement right and so there is speculation. The tepe elf may intend to try and unseat the current government of ethiopia. Which was of course elected just recently in elections at certainly were problematic in that they couldn't be held lots of insecure parts of ethiopia. It is important to note that the fighting tigray is not the only serious civil conflict in this very complex state so there appears to be a sense that they have the upper hand the appeal of believes it has the upper hand militarily that they're not going to stop now which is incredibly dangerous for us and now you have prime minister abby calling on all ethiopians essentially to take up arms. Join the fight..

ethiopia tigray prime minister abe ohara michelle ellis djibouti joe l ramon liberation army federal government addis romo abby
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

The President's Inbox

05:33 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

"Country and this led to kind of an escalation in the angry rhetoric between the two entities where two grands claimed the federal authorities had no legitimacy because of these constitutional issues federal authorities claimed that whole electoral exercise was illegitimate. So it's getting harder and harder for these groups to even talk to each other as they de-legitimize one another and you start to see. Even before the fighting broke out in november of last year you start to see military movements. You start to see what looks like preparation for armed confrontation before we talk with the actual outbreak apostolis michelle. Can you give us a sense. To what extent ethnic or tribal differences figured into this growing separation between the central government. And tigray i asked because there's been a lot of commentary on the fact that prime minister ave is in ormeau and which is the largest ethnic group in ethiopia. But i don't know whether the evolution of ethiopian politics is really driven by these ethnic differences are not it isn't it isn't in the sense that because ethiopia has been set up on this kind of ethno. Federalists model a lot of grievances in sort of areas of political tension find expression right through ethnicity or regional basis. But it's not necessarily about identity so much as it is once kind of rights economic opportunities access to land in resources. A lot of that depends on kind of what part of ethiopia you sit in and how it's been carved off that usually is framed within ethnic identity may end as we're seeing now. All of these states have their own kind of regional militia forces which have now been mobilized as part of this conflict so you have regional governing leaders who've organized around ethnic identity. You've got armed forces that are organized. The same way and so almost every conflict and political pointed contention can find expression through this lens. But it's not necessarily not about deep seated hatreds of the other. It's you know it's about how opportunities gets spread out across his vast country so fighting breaks out last november. At the time it happened there was a lot of uncertainty about what it actually happened. The story from the ethiopian central government is that degrade enforces had attacked an ethiopian central government military base to take weapons. I'm not sure whether that's jury has been shown to be true or not. You should have just explained to us what happened originally how the finding early on well. That's certainly what was reported that there had been sort of preemptive strike the teepee aleph head attacked federal forces because they believed in attack on them was eminent. You know there are different now kind of revisions of that history. I don't have access to information that gives me confidence..

ethiopia ormeau tigray michelle ethiopian central government
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

The President's Inbox

04:09 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

"Because the cheap elf to grand people's liberation front was sort of the dominant actor in establishing the ethno. Federalists state of ethiopian. That we've known in understood for the last couple of decades that state was governed by a coalition. Eprdf right which is a big tent of a number of different largely ethically regionally based parties but there was very much a one dominant party among them in. That was the tps. So you're absolutely right. It's a minority population. But for many years they enjoyed kind of cried. Place first among equals in ethiopian political system in that that also filtered through into the security services you had much of the senior officer corps coming from tigray and also to some degree the economy. So you have this. Period of teepee elf dominance that was also characterized by fairly autocratic governance. Style there are a lot of unresolved political issues in ethiopia right now and under the teepee aleph when those issues would bubble up there was a pretty repressive state response to people voicing dissatisfaction or dissent with the way ethiopia was governed the way land tenure works access to opportunity so win the current prime minister of ethiopia abby off mid came to power it really represented a kind of decisive pivot away from this period of teepee elf dominance to becomes prime minister wen so abby. I'm ed came to power in twenty eighteen and had quite a successful in many ways kind of honeymoon period where he announced a set of political reforms. Political prisoners were released lots of very prominent members of the ethiopian diaspora who had fled the country at came back. To sort of help rebuild a a new ethiopia that was going to have more space more political space for dissent discussion. He made he steel with eritrea and ended up winning a nobel prize period of euphoria but as those underlying tensions that had existed for quite some time in ethiopia continued to manifest. You started to see more of the same repressive tactics but at the same time. Growing tensions between the t. p. l. f. and the center so as prime minister abby sort of removed senior two grants from important posts in government in the military. You started to see a lot of resentment a sense of disenfranchisement at growing estrangement and win. Abby formed a new political party the prosperity party so abandoning that old. Eprdf model it. Dplf declined to join. It is a pretty clear signal that these entities were going their separate. Is it safe to say. The prime minister ave was pretty effective in sort of ease in the p. l. f. out of the government. Yeah i think it is. I think it is certainly affected in that sense but perhaps less effective in doing so in a way right that kind of retained the capacity to work with its dplf. So i'm not interested in assigning blame necessarily for why exactly this political relationship foundered so badly but it certainly did. Then you had sort of some precipitating events so the cove in nineteen crisis caused a postponement in ethiopia's national elections the end. This was a bit problematic. In the sense that ethiopia zone constitution didn't really allow for this. You had a government in addis that was sort of standing on constitutional quicksand for a while there and the gray in regional government which is dominated by the teepee. Ls decided to go ahead with elections on time in defiance of federal authorities. What in september of last year. so yes. These elections went forward in tigray in september of last year while they were postponed right in the rest of the.

ethiopia Eprdf tigray prime minister abby Dplf abby eritrea ed Abby addis
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

The President's Inbox

03:02 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The President's Inbox

"Welcome to the president's inbox and see if our podcast about the foreign policy challenges facing the united states. I'm jim lindsey director studies at the council on foreign relations. This week's topic is ethiopia's civil war. With being discussed the fighting in northern ethiopia between federal government forces in regional tigray enforces is michelle gavin. Michelle is senior fellow for africa studies at the council. She was previously managing director of the center from two thousand eleven to two thousand fourteen. She was us ambassador botswana where she served concurrently as the us representative to the southern african development community before that michelle was a special assistant to president barack obama in the senior director for africa on the staff of the national security council michelle. Thanks you being here. Thanks so much for having michelle. Afghanistan is dominated news. As we're speaking so i think a lot of people haven't heard or followed what's been happening in ethiopia. Maybe we could just start by laying out for us. How things currently stand in ethiopia. Sure well unfortunately the situation ethiopia has really gone from bad to worse so fighting that began last november between the two gray enforces in the state of tigray in ethiopia and federal government forces very quickly brought in additional armed groups that would be military of country of eritrea. But also some emperor militia what we have now are even more actors even more armed groups involved in the fighting and we have a geographics sort of expansion of the conflict beyond the borders of tigray itself into a far and amhara states that border on tigray so essentially you have more armed elements in the mix fighting over a larger swath of territory the humanitarian crisis. Which is captured so much of the world's attention persists and in some ways has gotten worse as the sort of chokepoints for bringing food and other types of assistance to people in need have essentially narrowed down to one. There is one way that we're getting humanitarian assistance to tigray and it's not getting in fast enough with talk about how we got to the stage later. We can talk about where we're likely to go. Potential for diplomatic mediation the rest. But i'm trying to understand why the fighting broke out in the first place. Now ethiopia's the country of roughly one hundred ten million people. I have seen estimates that ethiopia has as many as ninety different ethnic groups tigray estate in northern part of ethiopia tigrayans constitute about five percent of the ethiopian population. How is we ended up in a situation which such a small group of people is in a battle with the central government. Well you have to step back in ethiopian history. A bit history is going to be love history on the presence. Inbox great stuff..

ethiopia michelle tigray jim lindsey michelle gavin council on foreign relations africa united states southern african development c amhara national security council botswana barack obama eritrea Afghanistan central government
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The World Next Week

The World Next Week

08:50 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The World Next Week

"Org and on itunes podcast channel religion in foreign policy as always see if our takes no institutional institutional positions on matters of policy. We're delighted to have ambassador. Michelle gavin with us today to talk about the conflict in ethiopia's ethiopia's tigray region. Michelle gavin is currently senior fellow for africa studies at the council on foreign relations. She was formerly the managing director of the africa center. A multidisciplinary institution dedicated to increasing understanding of contemporary africa and prior to distinguished career in the government from two dozen eleven to two thousand fourteen ambassador. Gammon was the ambassador to botswana and served concurrently as a us representative to the southern african development community. She also served part that President obama and the senior director for africa at the national security council and before joining the obama administration ambassador gavin was an international affairs fellow and adjunct fellow for africa at the afar. So michelle. thank you for being with us today. it would be great if you could provide us with an overview of the conflict in tigray region of ethiopia. And talk about what's led up to it and policy recommendations as you see a what we can be doing here From the us vantage point or will thank you so much for inviting me to join you today and thanks to everyone is taking time to engage with this issue which is wine that genuinely does keep me up at night And i think is is keeping a lot of people so this is a conflict that broke out last november but had frankly been along time coming. The ethiopian state had for a decade been governed by a coalition a coalition of political parties. But there was one group that was kind of first among equals that was dominant in this ruling coalition and that was the tepe elf and the tigrayan people's liberation front at so the to which make up about six percent More or less of ethiopia's population there is a theo. Pia is a federation so there are states demarcated on maps with a different kind of local government and sometimes local defense forces as well. The tigrayans had been kind of dominated. Federally intel really at the rise of the current prime minister. Vip prime minister. Abby op-ed who is not great in he is a from is a romo ethnically although his background is is mixed which is true of many ethiopians and also a mixed religious background. Interestingly his father's slim his mother in ethiopia orthodox christian himself is pentecostal so as president. Excuse me prime minister. Abby a Power kind of reform agenda because indian all observers inside and outside ethiopia agreed at that time the ethiopian state wasn't really working. There was a great deal of popular dissatisfaction with the federal government with the center. A lot of political contestation and so he unveiled a reform agenda much of which was celebrated domestically and internationally designed open up political space in the country but part of the reform involved and eliminating some of the kind of preferences and the the sort of first among equals role of the left. So you have to gray in a senior to grains who had long enjoyed very influential roles in politics but also in the economy in the military Finding at some of that power being stripped away and it set up at a fairly antagonistic relationship now over time at the prime minister's reform agenda stalled in some areas. They're still a great deal of discontent in contestation. any theo. Pia aside from in tigray but things really came to a head with the grants around the question of elections so ethiopia in june just completed elections but those elections had been delayed so be original. Election date was postponed because of cova nineteen and the difficulty of of campaigning of organizing the midst of a pandemic. the grands chose to go ahead with elections in their region in defiance of federal authorities. And this really kind of set up a standoff and then the it was you know both sides were clearly mobilizing forces for actual conflict that the spark that lit the tinder was a preemptive attack on the part of two grey enforces on some federal forces in the area. And then what you had was a a devastatingly costly conflict where you ended up with four different armed groups. A in the mix in tigray and civilians suffering. You had the federal ethiopian forces you had the two grain forces pushing back but aligned with those federal forces and very much complicating the picture you had eritrean forces who crossed the border to to support prime minister abbey in this campaign against a teepee aleph and worryingly you had militia forces from 'em hara another very large ethnic group in the country who claim. Some of the land that on maps had been considered not so this devastating conflict which has been accompanied by clear mass atrocities Use of sexual violence as a weapon. Refugees have been attacked health. Care centers have been deliberately destroyed which is a war crime across have been deliberately destroyed and in fact hundreds of thousands of two grains are now living in fan conditions. people have begun to die Because of famine it's a man made famine in tigray. So you have the conflict you have atrocity crimes and you have this devastating lack of food and access to healthcare. We're almost there. Were almost up to the president but something very interesting happened last month. Where essentially the two grands who a more or less have been fighting as a guerrilla force You know they kind of those who weren't immediately killed or captured kind of melted away regrouped in the mountains at the trains ended up reclaiming a great deal of territory from the federal forces. Federal forces then withdrew from the two grain capital for most of tigray and prime minister. Abby announced a unilateral ceasefire. It didn't really meet it. Didn't look like what ceasefires usually look like right with arrangements for communitarian access etcetera but there was this kind of Inflection point in the conflict outwear appear the to grandparents had gained an upper hand. The ethiopian federal forces withdrew with rain did not accept at a ceasefire unconditionally. They wanted the or trans out. They wanted those emperor militia out. Essentially the ceasefire is gone now. A fighting has resumed and has in fact spilled out of teague right into a neighboring region..

ethiopia Michelle gavin tigray africa africa center obama administration Abby southern african development c council on foreign relations Gammon national security council botswana gavin Pia President obama romo michelle us
"michelle gavin" Discussed on CFR On the Record

CFR On the Record

03:11 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on CFR On the Record

"This event is presented by the council on foreign relations. Welcome to the council on foreign relations social justice in foreign policy webinar series. I marina asking vice president for the national program and outreach you'll see afar as a reminder this webinar is on the record and the audio video and transcript will be made available on our website see if our dot org and on itunes podcast channel religion in foreign policy as always see if our takes no institutional institutional positions on matters of policy. We're delighted to have ambassador. Michelle gavin with us today to talk about the conflict in ethiopia's ethiopia's tigray region. Michelle gavin is currently senior fellow for africa studies at the council on foreign relations. She was formerly the managing director of the africa center. A multidisciplinary institution dedicated to increasing understanding of contemporary africa and prior to distinguished career in the government from two dozen eleven to two thousand fourteen ambassador. Gavin was the ambassador to botswana and served concurrently as a us representative to the southern african development community. She also served part that President obama and the senior director for africa at the national security council and before joining the obama administration ambassador gavin was an international affairs fellow and adjunct fellow for africa at the afar. So michelle. thank you for being with us today. it would be great if you could provide us with an overview of the conflict in the tigray region of ethiopia. And talk about what's led up to it and policy recommendations as you see a what we can be doing here From the us vantage point or will thank you so much for inviting me to join you today and thanks to everyone. Who's taking time to engage with this issue. Which is wine that genuinely does. Keep me up at night And i think is is keeping a lot of people so this is a conflict that broke out last november but had frankly been along time coming. The ethiopian state had for a decade been governed by a coalition a coalition of political parties. But there was one group that was kind of first among equals that was dominant in this ruling coalition and that was the tepe elf and the tigrayan people's liberation front at so the the to which make up about six percent More or less of ideo pius population. There is a theo. Pia is a federation so there are states demarcated on maps with a different kind of local government and sometimes local defense forces as well. The tigrayans had been kind of dominated. Federally intel really..

Michelle gavin council on foreign relations s council on foreign relations ethiopia africa tigray africa center obama administration marina southern african development c national security council botswana Gavin gavin President obama michelle us Pia intel
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

The Lawfare Podcast

10:51 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast

"Let's turn to the big boy on the block in the southern part of the continent which of course south africa in your episode on south africa. You address both some of the long standing issues that have continued to linger from the united states constructive engagement policy into the nineteen eighties but then some of the more recent crises that involves particular leaders. And i'm wondering if you can contextualized for us where south africa is in. Just how much of a priority. The biden administration policy wise should be putting on the new leadership in south africa versus building in civil society or trying to tackle both south. Africa is an extraordinary part country in sub saharan africa. And in the world right. It's a member of the g twenty. It's important voice in the g. Seventy seven it's the second largest economy It's often on the un security council. It's often having key positions within the african union and the relationship as we described it and we talked to embassador michelle gavin who had been president obama's first senior director at the white house. The relationship is often what we say is cordial but not close. And there's a lot of prickliness about that relationship. So i'll make one point at the top and then i can talk about the current leaders. The point that i'm just adamant about is that you don't get to pick and choose which countries you like In you are going to deal with. Just because they're practically and i feel like for for the last couple of administrations because south africa is difficult. It has a very strong view of itself in it. you know isn't a big fan of whoever's the hegemonic power globally that we've kind of thrown our hands up with them and that's not a luxury that we have in india right. That's not a luxury that we allow ourselves in other major countries. So the first is that we've got to do. South africa's consequential country period. But the interesting thing is that we have a moment of an opportunity. Here south africa's last president. Jacob zuma was very corrupt. He's actually now just going to jail essentially contempt because he wouldn't appear at his trials around these corruptions and his successor. Sierra rama poza. I think is one of our best openings for a strong and more vibrant and were productive relationship serum poza is kind of the best of all worlds You know career. Anc guy of the party and he was in the labor movement's early in his career. He helped negotiate the end of apartheid and then he went into business so he started represents all of the different facets of a very complicated party which is the anc. He has been a vocal actor when it comes to cova nineteen and dealing with the crisis both in terms of his own country but making sure that other countries have debt relief or that they get their fair share of vaccine so he's incredibly important for the us. and i'm i'm hopeful that the biden administration will take him seriously in a way that i think previous administrations just found south africans to be too frustrating. We had i think a better partner cyril ramaphosa but even when things are gonna get a little sticky and they will. That's what happens that we need to persevere. Good news is president. Biden has talked to a rama poza once on the phone. In between his election and inauguration president biden's election nomination inauguration and then he had pull aside with him recently at the g seven. And that's you know. There are a few african leader so far that have gotten that kind of attention from the white house. I know that you're trying to to focus on the bilateral relationships between the us and each individual country. But i have to ask when it comes to some of the countries down in the southern part of the continent whether it is maybe our malawi but even east martini through botswana zimbabwe. How much do the policies of the united states toward these countries really rely on how south africa itself is evolving and relating to the us. I think they absolutely do. First of all let's talk about Economic investment most us companies in the ranges anywhere from six hundred eight hundred are based in south africa but have a regional new. So that's their headquarters in south africa. And they're launching pads to engage with the other countries that we just mentioned We look towards south africa. As the most important country in the regional body known as sadak the southern african development community to shape responses to whatever the crisis jurors south africa is right now playing a really critical role in the sadeq response to the insurgency in northern mozambique south africa. Your dominates many of their neighbors economies. Some of their currencies are tied to the rain. And which is south africa's main currency or the Depend on the technical know-how of south african nationals. So you have to look at south africa as south africa but then you have to think about its economic security and political influence in the southern african region. I but then again sort of across the continent and then again at the global level. Because if you're gonna want an african perspective on a global challenge right whether that's internet privacy or climate change or even thinking about strategic competition. The south african voices going to hold a lot of weight in. It's going to be representative. Maybe not every country in africa loves that but it will represent many african views. We've discussed before and certainly nothing. In recent months has changed this perhaps even accelerated it that one of the primary prizms through which us policy makers c. sub saharan africa in the countries within it is the prism of great power competition with russia and in particular with china. One of the fascinating episodes of forty nine that i listened to was the one on angola because one of the points that you in conversation with with nicole in your guests make is that angola could actually play a really interesting role here because the chinese influence in particular Russian as well. They manifest themselves differently in each country but in the end goal in case. You've got some inroads. There that could provide the us and actual opportunity to use angola almost as a go-between with russia in china concerning issues related to potential conflict. And at least tension in the continent talk through that a little bit. What could angola serve in this regard in. Is that a model for anyone else in africa. Yeah really interesting. Parallels here to both namibia into south africa. But here's a country where we were on the wrong side of history again. Supporting the rebel group unita Whereas the current government the mp l. a. had the backing of cuba. Russia took us very long time until the end of the cold war to have a strong relationship in fact radioman have an embassy. Cnn gola until the nineties and the relationship with the longtime leader He had been in power since nineteen. Seventy nine was again. Maybe not even cordial just cold. But the new president azul lawrence o. Came to power in two thousand seventeen kinda surprised everyone by a throwing. A many of the dos santos family into jail for corruption and saying very affirmatively that he wants a strong relationship with the united states and so far. He's doing many of the things that we would want to see in goal in terms of anti-corruption at least pledges of of diversifying the economy. Being a little stronger on on foreign policy engaging his predecessor hadn't and so the thing that i that i think is really interesting about angola is that because of its history with the russians with the cubans and china's a huge trading partner for them particularly terms of their oil sector. Is that when things get heated. What is the opportunity for a country like angola to serve as an interlocutor. A safe space. I guess it's one of my big things about africa policy. Dave is that africa policy. Seems to be just for. Africa policymakers right. And that's again something that i think is unique and unfair exceptional and productive. How do we integrate the foreign policy towards sub saharan africa in a global perspective. And when we're talking about great power competition. It shouldn't be just about constraining china's maligned influence on the continent. It should be thinking about how african countries can help us. lower the temperature address. Some of these challenges. I one of the things that i would like to see. African governments do. And maybe this won't be angola. Maybe this'll be a country like ghana. For example or kenya is not just say. We don't wanna choose but to say affirmatively. These are the things that we expect from our foreign partners. China otherwise and create a set of standards around transparency environmental protection and trade and investment lending. Then we can go and say we're gonna buy buy them beijing your move and so. This is the kind of ways that i think that african countries can play a critical role in great power competition and actually helped shape the battlespace so to speak building on that. Which countries in africa do you think are to put it bluntly underperforming internationally. And by that. I mean which countries do you think with the right motivation and the right encouragement from the biden administration could be playing a more productive role in international organizations with peacekeeping missions with global economic institutions. And in a sense starting to punch at their wait outside of the continent itself. Yeah great question. Let me talk about a little bit about Who is already punching above their weight. Or maybe just share with your your listeners. How many africans are now in key positions in global institutions. You may know that the head of the. who is dr ted dress and ethiopian. You may be aware that the head of the wto.

south africa biden administration angola saharan africa united states michelle gavin Sierra rama poza poza Anc cyril ramaphosa sadak africa african union un security council Jacob zuma sub saharan cova Africa china white house
"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

06:53 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

"The Brits have crowns, and the Crown is a popular television series produced by Brits. Their movie and TV industry, though, is going through some other kind of drama will explain next time on marketplace. And you can hear marketplace that's coming up at four o'clock this afternoon. It's 2 49 and the world continues on KQED Public radio. Marco, where manure with the world The civil war in northern Ethiopia has taken another turn to gray and rebels pushed into the neighboring Amhara region on Tuesday. Now the Ethiopian government says it's ending a ceasefire. And going on the offensive. It is a complex chessboard with quickly moving pieces. We turned to Michelle Gavin, a senior fellow for African studies at the Council on Foreign Relations to try and make sense of things. My colleague Carol Hill spoke with her earlier today. Michelle. The Ethiopian government says it's ending the ceasefire with two ground forces and going on the offensive. Why did they make that decision? Well, it's clear that the two grey enforces intend to try and recapture territory that used to be understood as part of Tigre and that since the fighting broke out last November, has been taken over by AM Hora Forces, another ethnic group in Ethiopia and Claimed as part of Amhara. So though there has been a unilateral ceasefire on the part of the government, the fighting has not actually stopped to grain. Defense forces have continued to try and reclaim territory, so this appears to be something of a red line or the federal government. Orient me on this. We hear about the Amhara to dry the Ethiopian forces kind of who are the players and where geographically, do they? They sit here. So you have the two grand forces. Then you had the federal forces of Ethiopia. You also had Eritrean military forces crossing the border and assisting those federal Ethiopian forces. And finally, you had and horror essentially militia forces. Local Forces from the Amhara region, which does border Tigre. And there's long been tension about whose land is whose, particularly in that Western part of what on a map you would see as teak, right? The Tigre enforces. Having you know, recaptured a great deal of their territory from the Ethiopian federal forces have pledged to sort of continue their campaign to reclaim territory and to push out All of these armed groups that were essentially aligned against them. That means the Eritreans and it also means those Amhara forces. So should we understand at this point that since Prime Minister a B Ahmed has has Ended the ceasefire that he's going to again sand Ethiopian federal forces in to try to kind of quell this mess well, it certainly looks that way. It's very clear that the Amhara are not interested in relinquishing the territory that they had gained control over without a fight. There are reports even that other forces perhaps some Romo armed forces, who are not typically part of the federal military might also be brought into the fight to push back on the two grands. So it's it remains to be seen exactly what Prime Minister Abby can muster in terms of a coalition to re engage this fight. But what is sort of painfully clear is that the violence is by no means over. Okay, let's look at the to grind rebel forces for a second, you know, after really being diminished by Ethiopian government forces and also those who came in from Eritrea, they then regained their capital medically. I mean, to be kind of blunt. Why weren't they satisfied with retaking the capital of the region and just being done with it? Well, I think there's a tremendous amount of resentment in Tigre about atrocities that have been committed during this campaign. I certainly am. I'm not suggesting that any of the parties to the conflict are completely innocent in terms of war crimes, But it is very clear that some truly horrific crimes have been committed against the tea green people against to grant civilians. Sexual violence, war crimes by any definition. And so I think perhaps there is also a sentiment integrate that is intolerable essentially to allow any of the forces associated with those crimes to continue operating on what, what they believed to be two grand soil. What are the chances for a peaceful resolution here in your mind? What has to happen to kind of stem this from growing into something really, really tragic. It's clear the air a trained forces have to get out of of Ethiopia. That's just a a toxic element to this equation. You know, Ethiopia just came out of federal election process that was not inclusive entirely of because obviously there was no voting in Tigre that wasn't voting in some other restive Parts of the country. It's going to be important to acknowledge that that electoral process was insufficient right to address this kind of underlying Political tensions, arguments about the autonomy of individual regions. These are incredibly important issues that at their heart are political, so there has to be some kind of political process, rule governed process to work through them, and that's particularly difficult right now when You still have a situation Where that the Tigre ins are considered terrorists by the federal Ethiopian state. It's very hard to engage in a rule governed process with a group you've totally delegitimized. So there are a lot of roadblocks to what ultimately, I is the only avenue out of this mess that I can see which really is about political dialogues. Michelle Gavin. Thanks so much. Thanks for having me. That was Michelle Gavin, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, speaking with my colleague Carol Hill's about the conflict in northern Ethiopia. Finally today, a tale as old as time. That's how musician Marvin Brooks starts his latest track. One breath really saw this time myself is told so all the told itself more..

Carol Hill Michelle Gavin Michelle Marvin Brooks Ethiopia Tuesday Eritrea last November Council on Foreign Relations AM Hora Forces today four o'clock this afternoon two ground forces KQED Public two grands Tigre Eritrean Amhara northern Ethiopia two grey
"michelle gavin" Discussed on PRI's The World

PRI's The World

06:30 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on PRI's The World

"Hito all right here we go. Wow okay i'm not saying i'm ready to give up the real thing but really it was out of this world for the world. I'm lydia mainly due in athens greece. The civil war in northern ethiopia taken another turn to grey rebels pushed into the neighboring. I'm horror region on tuesday. Now the government says it's ending ceasefire and going on the offensive. It is a complex chessboard. With quickly moving pieces we turn to michelle gavin. A senior fellow for africa studies at the council on foreign relations to try and make sense of things. My colleague carol hills spoke with her earlier today. Michelle the ethiopian government. Says it's ending the ceasefire with to grind forces and going on the offensive. Why did they make that decision. Well it's clear that the tegray enforces intend to try and recapture territory. That used to be understood as part of tigray and that since the fighting broke out last november has been taken over by 'em forces another ethnic group in ethiopia and claimed as part of them hara so though there has been a unilateral ceasefire on the part of the government. The fighting has not actually stopped its grain defense forces have continued to try and reclaim territory so this. Here's to be something of a red line or the government. Orient me on this. We hear about them how to cry. The eighth ethiopian forces kind of who are the players and where geographically do they sit here so you have a two grand forces. Then you had the federal forces of ethiopia you also had airtran military forces crossing the border and assisting those federal ethiopian forces and finally you had 'em hara essentially militia forces local forces from the horror region. Which does border tigray. And there's long been tension about whose land is whose particularly in that western part of what on a map. You would see as right. The to gray enforces having recaptured a great deal of their territory. From the ethiopian. Federal forces have pledged to continue their campaign to reclaim territory to push out all of these armed groups that were essentially aligned against them that means the eritreans and it also means those forces so should we understand at this point that since prime minister. Ahmed has has Ended the ceasefire that he's going to again. Send ethiopian federal forces in to try to quell this mess. Well it certainly looks that way. It's very clear that the am hara interested in relinquishing the territory. They had gained control over without a fight. There are reports even that other forces perhaps some romo armed forces who are not typically part of the federal military might also be brought into the fight to push back on the grains. So it's it remains to be seen. Exactly what prime minister ib can muster in terms of a coalition to re-engage this fight But what is painfully clear is that the violence is by no means over. Okay let's look at the to grind rebel forces for a second. You know after really being diminished by ethiopian government forces and also those who came in from eritrea. They then regained their capital mecklai. I mean to be kind of blunt. Why weren't they satisfied with retaking the capital of the region. And just being done with it. Well i think there's a tremendous amount of resentment in tigray about atrocities that have been committed during this campaign. I certainly am am not suggesting that. Any of the parties to the conflict are completely innocent in terms of war-crimes but it is very clear that some truly horrific crimes have been committed against the grain people against to grade civilians sexual violence war crimes by any definition. And so i think perhaps there is also a sentiment in tigray that is intolerable essentially to allow any of the forces associated with those crimes to continue operating on what what they believed to be to grain soil. What are the chances for a peaceful resolution here in your mind. What has to happen to kind of stem this from growing into something really really tragic. It's clear the eritrean forces have to get out of of ethiopia. That's just a toxic element to this equation. You just came out of federal election process that was not inclusive entirely because obviously there was no voting in tigray that wasn't voting in some other restive parts of the country. It's going to be important to acknowledge that that electoral process was insufficient right to address this kind of underlying political tensions arguments about the autonomy of individual regions beezer incredibly important issues that at their heart our political so there has to be some kind of a political process rule governed process to work through them. And that's particularly difficult right now when you still have a situation where the. The tegray ins are considered terrorists by the federal ethiopian state. It's very hard to engage in rule governed process with a group. You've totally de-legitimize. So there are a lot of roadblocks. To what ultimately. I is the only avenue out of this mess that i can see which really is about political dialogue. Michelle gavin. thanks so much. Thanks for having that was michelle gavin senior fellow for africa studies at the council on foreign relations. Speaking with my colleague. Carol hills about the conflict in northern ethiopia. Finally today a tale as old as time. That's how musician marvin brooks starts his latest track. One breath thome old. The marvin brooks tale.

tigray ethiopia michelle gavin carol hills ethiopian government hara council on foreign relations lydia airtran athens greece Orient Michelle africa romo Ahmed government eritrea Michelle gavin Carol hills
"michelle gavin" Discussed on The World Next Week

The World Next Week

07:49 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on The World Next Week

"This event is presented by the council on foreign relations. Welcome everybody welcome to this castle in our relations virtual roundtable on major power rivalry in africa. thank you for joining us today for those who don't know me. I'm post says senior fellow for conflict prevention council and directorates center fall preventive action. Today's roundtable is the latest in a series of meetings. We all night on implications of growing strategic competition between the major powers and specific regions which is being made possible by generous grant from the carnegie corporation of new york. Some of you may eventually tuned into early roundtables that we held on the middle east and asia. Today we're gonna focus on africa with a particular focus. I think on china's going presence and influence on the confident but we also going to look at other parents. Well we have two excellent Speak with us to discuss these issues with us. Let me first introduce michelle gavin. She is senior fellow. Africa's studies year at the council. She has many years of government service focusing on africa. I on capitol hill as an aide to send two senators russ final in kansas saw followed by stints at the nfc for africa in the obama administration off that she was appointed as us ambassador devout swan era where she concurrently served as u s representative to sack the southern african development community before joining the cat so she also headed up the africa center in new york. I would also be remiss in not mentioning that. She's just authored a report on major power rivalry in africa. Full of the council on that is available on the council's websites. And i commend you to read that. She has joined today by kobo. Who likes to go by just zoo. Thank you for that Dr globo he is the head of the wits school of governance at the university of Around in south africa where he joins us today. He was formerly in associate professor of strategy international business at ovitz business skull if all joining wits he co founded the center for the study of governance innovation at the university of pretoria in south africa and became its deputy director between twenty twelve in two thousand. Fourteen mizzou is also a member of the presidential economic advisory council in south africa. Having previously said is headed the division responsible for south africa's trade policy at the department of trade and industry. Welcome and thank you both for being with us today. So his typical tables. I'm going to engage in about thirty minutes of Discussion without fake us. And then i'm gonna open it up full. Qna from those attending the su- just reminded the meeting is on the recold will be recorded and posted on our website at a later date. Okay so why. don't we get started. Let me turn to you first. Michelle if you could just sort of set. The scene for awesome if a sense of how this rivalry. That's the right term for. It is is shaping up today in africa who the main axes over chinese one of the principal goals. What are they trying to accomplish. Points in contention if you could just sort of set sentencing for us. I sure i can try my best at. Thanks so much for having me. I think that you know to sort of contextualized this argument. That's very much part of kind of the mainstream debate about us. Africa policy right now of major power rivalry. What's important is is to understand that the rest of the world right is keenly aware of the importance of africa strategy writ large for a host of reasons for strategic reasons for economic reasons and but there has been kind of a trend in the us foreign policy community to think about africa as a sort of a place apart from maybe the most pressing foreign policy priorities at the time. I don't think that's the way the rest of the world Tends to see the continent. And so i think that's kind of an important backdrop when when we think about how the us engages this debate today at because you do have a really a host of actors with very active strategies seeking access seeking influence on the african continent and the the to clearly most at influential most sweeping in scope are the us and china but obviously european union has a very long standing complex deep and significant relationship with african states. You have the increase activity of gulf factors Not just in the horn of africa but certainly most prominently in the horn. At for many years. Japan has worked hard to try a establish a robust partnership with a number of african states. India plays a role. So this is. It's very much a global community right seeking seeking fruitful partnerships. What's interesting. I think this debate right now in the us is that you had starting with the trump administration is very express articulation that major power rivalry particularly rivalry with china. Although russia was was a part of this agenda as well should be kind of the dominant lens through which we understand our engagement on the continent and this was made sort of expressly clear national security strategy. But it's it's in some ways carried over into the biden administration was very different in many respects from the trump administration. But if you look at even the confirmation processes principles in the the biden administration. I'm you see this very deliberate and purposeful articulation of the notion. That at chinese influence in africa is problematic is sometimes even malevolent and that the us must work to counter growing chinese influence. All of the chinese are incredibly influential on the continent. The point i try making in the paper and then something. I'd like to talk about today. Is is naked at this is untrue. The chinese have for decades right had a a sweeping and complex engagement strategy that is.

michelle gavin Michelle africa today Fourteen Today two thousand south africa kansas twenty twelve globo trump Africa two senators asia Japan both ovitz business skull chinese kobo
"michelle gavin" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

05:22 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on KCRW

"In the client's best interest. Let's make a plan dot org's right now it is 75 degrees in Santa Barbara at 4 35 from NPR News. This is all things considered. I'm Ari Shapiro in Washington, and I'm Elsa Chang in Los Angeles. The U. S. Is imposing new restrictions on Ethiopian and Eritrean government officials. This comes as a six month long conflict in northern Ethiopia intensifies. Thousands have already died in the fighting there, and there are reports of possible war crimes committed by all sides as civilians and their homes and property are targeted by armed forces here with more on all of this is Michelle Gavin, a senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Welcome Thanks for having me. So what exactly are these new restrictions the administration has put in place. So Secretary Blinken just announced Visa restriction policy so essentially a visa ban. A list of names will be drawn up or has already been drawn up. Of individuals responsible, you know, in the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments responsible for the crisis, and they will be denied entry to the U. S. As their immediate family members may also be denied entry. Okay, well, now the Biden administration. I mean, it's previously expressed concerns about this conflict. It has put pressure on Ethiopia's prime minister, Abby Achmed to defuse it. Why is the us taking this additional step now in particular? Because the statements and the diplomatic overtures thus far aren't working. The conflict persists. Day presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopian territory persists despite Prime Minister Abby's a commitment that the Eritrean troops would leave. And the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen S. Oh, there's a real concern about famine in Tigre and the issues of humanitarian access that the international canoes been working on for months remain unresolved. But ultimately do restrictions like this limiting visas and so forth. Do they actually get results? It's a mixed bag. These kinds of targeted sanctions in some cases have seemed to influence behavior, particularly if It's not just the United States but becomes a multilateral effort to isolate certain officials on make how help a government feel that kind of international pressure. In other cases, these sorts of restrictions have done very little. It was certainly in the case of Eritrea. They have weathered much tougher sanction receipt regimes for quite a long time. In the past Eritrea a Ethiopia may be more sensitive Tonto reputational risk Well, if these new restrictions don't work, what else can the biting administration do you think Well, you know, I think it's quite telling that in the statement announcing these secretary Blinken did call on other governments to join the U. S. So I would say that the immediate step would be to try and make this action more of a multi multilateral one to the degree possible. Then there's you know the issue of assistance so the U. S has already frozen some types of economic and security assistance to Ethiopia. But we could also use three U. S voice and vote at the international financial institutions to apply pressure so there, you know a range of steps that can be taken. Well in the 30 seconds or so that we have left. What do you see? Are the consequences if this fighting does not come to an end soon. Well, it's devastating for the entire region. In addition to the human tragedy of people living in famine conditions, people who have been the victim of these kinds of atrocities the Ethiopia is at risk of coming apart at the seams. Tigre is not the only conflict zone in the country. Thies. This crisis has already spilled over. There's a border conflict with Sudan. Obviously Eritrea's implicated it has implications for Somalia, so there's a strategically important part of the Horn of Africa that it depends on a stable Ethiopia. That is Michelle Gavin from the Council on Foreign Relations. Thank you very much. Thank you. The U. S Supreme Court decision last year has changed law enforcement in the state of Oklahoma. That decision restored tribal authority to both police crimes and prosecute criminals. It's also lead to greater responsibility from a Scobie nation officers known as Light Horsemen. From member station K. O S U Allison Aditya reports on what that responsibility looks like on the ground. It's a Friday night and Miss coordination. Light Horse Police officer Amy Bennett is getting ready to go out on her shift. What problem? Don't be 97. Then it is sitting in her police car outside the river Spirit Casino near downtown.

Ari Shapiro Elsa Chang Michelle Gavin Los Angeles Amy Bennett Washington Santa Barbara Oklahoma 75 degrees 30 seconds Abby Achmed U. S Supreme Court Council on Foreign Relations Tigre six month Horn of Africa Friday night NPR News last year Blinken
"michelle gavin" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

90.3 KAZU

05:14 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

"And I'm Elsa Chang in Los Angeles. The U. S is imposing new restrictions on Ethiopian and Eritrean government officials. This comes as a six month long conflict in northern Ethiopia intensifies. Thousands have already died in the fighting there, and there are reports of possible war crimes committed by all sides as civilians and their homes and property are targeted by armed forces here with more on all of this is Michelle Gavin, a senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Welcome Thanks for having me. So what exactly are these new restrictions the administration has put in place. So Secretary Blinken just announced Visa restriction policy so essentially a visa ban. A list of names will be drawn up or has already been drawn up. Of individuals responsible, you know, in the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments responsible for the crisis, and they will be denied entry to the U. S. As their immediate family members may also be denied entry. Okay, well, now the Biden administration. I mean, it's previously expressed concerns about this conflict. It has put pressure on Ethiopia's prime minister, Abby Achmed to defuse it. Why is the us taking this additional step now in particular? Because the statements and the diplomatic overtures thus far aren't working. The conflict persists. The presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopian territory persists despite Prime Minister Abby's a commitment that the Eritrean troops would leave and the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen. S so there's a real concern about famine in Tigre and the issues of humanitarian access that the international canoes been working on for months remain unresolved. But ultimately do restrictions like this limiting visas and so forth. Do they actually get results? It's a mixed bag. These kinds of targeted sanctions in some cases have seemed to influence behavior, particularly if It's not just the United States but becomes a multilateral effort to isolate certain officials on make how help a government feel that kind of international pressure. In other cases, these sorts of restrictions have done very little. It was certainly in the case of Eritrea. They have weathered much tougher sanction Rizzi regimes for quite a long time. In the past Eritrea a Ethiopia may be more sensitive Tonto reputational risk Well, if these new restrictions don't work, what else can the Biden administration do you think Well, you know, I think it's quite telling that in the statement announcing these secretary Blinken did call on other governments to join the U. S. So I would say that the immediate step would be to try and make this action more of a multi multilateral one to the degree possible. Then there's the issue of assistance. So the U. S has already frozen some types of economic and security assistance to Ethiopia. But we could also use three U. S voice and vote at the international financial institutions to apply pressure so there, you know a range of steps that can be taken. Well in the 30 seconds or so that we have left. What do you see? Are the consequences if this fighting does not come to an end soon? Well, it's devastating for the entire region. In addition to the human tragedy of people living in famine conditions, people who have been the victim of these kinds of atrocities the Ethiopia is at risk of coming apart at the seams. Tigre is not the only conflict zone in the country. On these. This crisis has already spilled over. There's a border conflict with Sudan. Obviously Eritrea's implicated it has implications for Somalia, so there's a strategically important part of the Horn of Africa that it depends on a stable Ethiopia. That is Michelle Gavin from the Council on Foreign Relations. Thank you very much. Thank you. The U. S Supreme Court decision last year has changed law enforcement in the state of Oklahoma. That decision restored tribal authority to both police crimes and prosecute criminals. It's also lead to greater responsibility from a Scobie nation officers known as Light Horsemen. From member station K. O S U Allison Aditya reports on what that responsibility looks like on the ground. It's a Friday night and Miss coordination. Light Horse Police officer Amy Bennett is getting ready to go out on her shift. Want five? I'll be 97. Then it is sitting in her police car outside the river Spirit Casino near downtown Tulsa. Well, we already have a call. So we're gonna head that way. What's our call.

Michelle Gavin Elsa Chang Los Angeles Amy Bennett Oklahoma 30 seconds Abby Achmed six month Council on Foreign Relations five Horn of Africa U. S Supreme Court Friday night Tigre last year Abby Light Horsemen Blinken northern Ethiopia Allison Aditya
"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

04:40 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

"Tend to our top story. Now there's the world's biggest economy who leads the U. S matters not just to the health and prosperity of the United States but also to other nations to and that's even echoed in a text from Stephen Any who's in Bama in Sierra Leone. Who says President Joe Biden is not just president. Put the U. S, but also for the whole world While joining us now is Ba Hello, Kenny Window. She is an economist and former minister of investment, trade and industry. And she's now managing and managing director off Kelly Window on defies every greetings to you. And thanks very much for joining us. You may have heard the gun in P opposition MP. They're saying that he believed Donald Trump. Didn't do much for Africa for the regional body echo us all for his own nation Garma and believes that Joe Biden has much to do in terms of repairing relations with the continent. What is your view about The trump legacy and what you hope that Joe Biden may do differently. Right, Well, first good morning, and I would have to agree with the gun Ian member of Parliament, mainly because Trump's legacy has been very insular Unilateralism, America first and truly the destruction of multilateralism. And so when I talk at a more global space before I come to Africa, we've seen that with draw off the Paris accord. That delayed appointment of judges at the apple it body of the W T O blocking nothing. Bo zero closure you Ella, as, uh See if the wt O, which was also part personal to Africa, on golf course who can forget when President Trump called African countries able countries on but that is part of his legacy and in Africa, remember in 2019 when the U. S wanted to launch that New Prospect Africa program Invited all these heads of states and on Lee for them, too. Not even bring any senior officials to attend an address. The president's in that Africa. That was quite a significance of how the U. S policy views the continent and it did not make any good for Our relations now and how Biden will take a different approach to hear with I'm not too or not overly optimistic about Africa the Empire test, particularly in the short term. By the Biden administration because I believe that still many domestic crisis points that the administration needs to focus on on that will be a priority that said his proposed Cabinet and senior officials are supporters of multilateralism and I want to point out the rumored appointment of Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Um Ambassador Michelle Gavin, who has a lot of experience and background in Africa, and we can only hope that she would want to advance beyond the usually conservative U. S policy on Africa that is focusing on anti terrorism and governments but rise to ambitions. But hopefully so just here. Yeah. Yes, but hopefully also rise to these ambitions that the continent has off having intra trade and trading as a block with the rest of the world. So that being the case would you want more support for the African Continental Free Trade area is that way you feel support should be or that there should be a renewal of our Goa or something like that. Certainly mean recognized the continent is focusing more on aid for trade on have a real trade partners to advance development of industries jobs on bond trade. So we would like to see more support around ago. Uh, see intentions surrounding the DFC Prosper Africa, which is a power Africa, which is an Obama era project as well as possible Africa, which is the Trump Administration project. How those three will come together to one's advance in the U. S s mandate in Becoming a leading invested in the continent. Thank you very much for joining us this morning, we'll hollow Kenny window and she's an economist on former minister in Botswana. Way gonna stay nearby. It is Zimbabwe were covered 19 has.

Africa President Joe Biden President Trump DFC Prosper Africa president Kenny Window Ella Lee United States Stephen managing director apple Zimbabwe Parliament Bama Assistant Secretary of State f Sierra Leone golf Botswana
"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

04:03 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

"This week, he sent federal troops into a province of his own country. Hundreds are reported dead in the northern region of Tigre and refugees air spilling over the border into Sudan. So what explains the shift from peace to conflict? Michelle Gavin is a former ambassador and senior fellow for African studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Ambassador Gavin We're talking about the Ethiopian province of Tigre, where the violence is happening. It's squeezed into the northwest corner of Ethiopia. Figure it straddles the border of Eritrea to its north. What is so important about Tigre relative to the rest of Ethiopia? Well for many years, the Tigre and People's Liberation Front that sort of dominant political and military entity in Tigre was really first among equals in the ruling coalition for all of Ethiopia so to Graham's played an incredibly prominent role in Ethiopian governance, politics, security But with the rise of the new Prime Minister Ahmed There's been a bit of a re balancing in Ethiopia. And this is kind of opened up contest station from ethnicities across this incredibly diverse country. And there has been kind of widespread feeling that for too long, a small minority from Tigre had too much control of the federal government. So there's political tension between Tigre and Addis Ababa. Are there also historical grievances between two grand central government that we need to mention? I mean, is there a back story here? Tigre is now fighting at us. There's a lot of back story Ethiopian and certainly to Gran's were and incredibly, they weren't just dominant, politically and in the security services for many years, certainly under the leadership of Prime minister malice, But they also suffered most in the long and very costly in blood and treasure war with your tria. So there is there's also you know, a sense of probably grievance in that sense. Abby's come to power they feel targeted by new personnel choices by new policy choices. What maybe others in Ethiopia see as a re balancing the Tigre ins can often feel like persecution despite the tremendous sacrifices that they have made for the country. There are reports from Tigre oven. Ethiopian air campaign heavy bombardment at times. I mean, what's at stake here as far as you can tell ambassador Is it a possible civil war between two grands and Ethiopian troops? There is Tigre saying. We've had enough. We want independence. How should we interpret what's going on? We should absolutely be worried about a civil war, which I don't think would necessarily be contained just Teo, the Tigre region, giving all of the other tensions and actors. So what's at stake? You know the wellbeing of over 110 million Ethiopians. Regional stability. Conflict in Ethiopia has a very high chance of drawing in Eritrea. Sudan, tipping the balance of Sudan zone very fragile transition. Ethiopia's incredibly important actor in trying to bring stability to Somalia to South Sudan distracted and weekend. Ethiopia is really quite devastating, Tio this entire horn region which is strategically really significant, and there are a lot of actors external to Africa. In the Gulf, the Chinese and from the West, all of whom care deeply about stability in this region, so the prospect of drawing others in of proxy conflict it's really a powder keg, and the consequence will not be confined solely to what's happening inside Ethiopia's borders. Michelle Gavin, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She also served as ambassador to Botswana from 2011 to 14. Ambassador Gavin Thank you very much. Thank you.

Ethiopia president Tigre Congress Peru Martine Vizcarra Tigre oven Michelle Gavin Lima Eritrea Council on Foreign Relations Jorge Valencia Sudan President Martinez Kara Ahmed There senior fellow Manuel Medina
"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

07:18 min | 1 year ago

"michelle gavin" Discussed on KQED Radio

"This week, he sent federal troops into a province of his own country. Hundreds are reported dead in the northern region of Tigre and refugees air spilling over the border into Sudan. So what explains the shift from peace to conflict? Michelle Gavin is a former ambassador and senior fellow for African studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Ambassador Gavin We're talking about the Ethiopian province of Tigre, where the violence is happening. It's squeezed into the northwest corner of Ethiopia. Figure it straddles the border of Eritrea to its north. What is so important about Tigre relative to the rest of Ethiopia? Well for many years, the Tigre and People's Liberation Front that sort of dominant political and military entity in Tigre was really first among equals in the ruling coalition for all of Ethiopia so to Graham's played an incredibly prominent role in Ethiopian governance, politics, security But with the rise of the new Prime Minister Ahmed There's been a bit of a re balancing in Ethiopia. And this is kind of opened up contest station from ethnicities across this incredibly diverse country. And there has been kind of widespread feeling that for too long, a small minority from Tigre had too much control of the federal government. So there's political tension between Tigre and Addis Ababa. Are there also historical grievances between two grand central government that we need to mention? I mean, is there a back story here? Tigre is now fighting at us. There's a lot of back story Ethiopian and certainly to Gran's were and incredibly, they weren't just dominant, politically and in the security services for many years, certainly under the leadership of Prime minister malice, But they also suffered most in the long and very costly in blood and treasure war with your tria. So there is there's also you know, a sense of probably grievance in that sense. Abby's come to power they feel targeted by new personnel choices by new policy choices. What maybe others in Ethiopia see as a re balancing the Tigre ins can often feel like persecution despite the tremendous sacrifices that they have made for the country. There are reports from Tigre oven. Ethiopian air campaign heavy bombardment at times. I mean, what's at stake here as far as you can tell ambassador Is it a possible civil war between two grands and Ethiopian troops? There is Tigre saying. We've had enough. We want independence. How should we interpret what's going on? We should absolutely be worried about a civil war, which I don't think would necessarily be contained just Teo, the Tigre region, giving all of the other tensions and actors. So what's at stake? You know the wellbeing of over 110 million Ethiopians. Regional stability. Conflict in Ethiopia has a very high chance of drawing in Eritrea. Sudan, tipping the balance of Sudan zone very fragile transition. Ethiopia's incredibly important actor in trying to bring stability to Somalia to South Sudan distracted and weekend. Ethiopia is really quite devastating, Tio this entire horn region which is strategically really significant, and there are a lot of actors external to Africa. In the Gulf, the Chinese and from the West, all of whom care deeply about stability in this region, so the prospect of drawing others in of proxy conflict it's really a powder keg, and the consequence will not be confined solely to what's happening inside Ethiopia's borders. Michelle Gavin, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She also served as ambassador to Botswana from 2011 to 14. Ambassador Gavin Thank you very much. Thank you. Protesters are back on the streets of the Peruvian capital, Lima today. Also today in Peru. Just this morning, a new president got sworn in after peruse Congress removed former president Martine Vizcarra over corruption allegations. For more on this. We have the world's Latin American correspondent Jorge Valencia on the line. It seems to be a busy news day and Lima Jorge. First of all, why the protests? Oh, Marco. It's because it seems very few people are happy that President Martinez Kara was removed from office. In fact, the legislative body in the country is very unpopular. And President Martine Vizcarra, who is being accused of corruption. People are very upset. They're out on the streets with hearts and hands. It's ah Of you. If you look at the images that is a flood of people in downtown historic Lehman Today, we'll get to the impeachment drama in a moment, but first tell us about the new president of Peru. Yes. His name is Manuel. Merry No. He is a businessman and a politician, of course from northern Peru. He is a member of the center Right Action Bakula Popular Action party. And today he is best known as the man who spearheaded the multiple efforts of the two efforts to remove marking be scattered from office just in the last few months. And as to the impeachment of Martine Vizcarra as president. How and why was he removed from office? The hearing yesterday was over an investigation over still unproven allegations that he received about $630,000 in bribes when he was governor of a region in southern proved that was six years ago. And peruse. Congress has the ability to remove a president over an ongoing investigation. The Constitution doesn't require Congress that have full confirmation of wrongdoing. So I was a little bit confused by this, to be honest with you. So I called alone. So Cardona's He's a political analyst and Lima The times off this removal are not very clear. Because personally scholar was accused of several cases of corruption. But these cases were under investigation, so we don't know if he's guilty or not. Marco. The other piece of context to know here about what the law allows Congress to do is it allows Congress to remove a president if they believe that he is, and this is a direct quote of what it says a permanent moral incapacity. If Congress believes have enough members of Congress believe that the president has this Nebulous, permanent moral incapacity. They can remove him from office. So now Manuel Medina, who took office today, he is now the third president that proves had since 2016. In fact, there's a long list of Peruvian president for the last quarter century that are either in jail because of corruption or they're being investigated. So Jorge, How does this presidential turmoil in Peru now affect the country's ability to respond to the pandemic that there's no no matter how you look at it? It is terribly destabilizing. In fact, I wanted to get a doctor's perspective on this because this is a healthcare issue. So I called Edward Malaga three job. He is a neurobiologist at when you see that one Area, and actually, when I reached him, he was at the protests, protests taking place all over downtown Lima.

Ethiopia president Tigre Congress Peru Martine Vizcarra Tigre oven Michelle Gavin Lima Eritrea Council on Foreign Relations Jorge Valencia Sudan President Martinez Kara Ahmed There senior fellow Manuel Medina
Ethiopia's conflict spills over border as thousands flee

The World

04:03 min | 1 year ago

Ethiopia's conflict spills over border as thousands flee

"This week, he sent federal troops into a province of his own country. Hundreds are reported dead in the northern region of Tigre and refugees air spilling over the border into Sudan. So what explains the shift from peace to conflict? Michelle Gavin is a former ambassador and senior fellow for African studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Ambassador Gavin We're talking about the Ethiopian province of Tigre, where the violence is happening. It's squeezed into the northwest corner of Ethiopia. Figure it straddles the border of Eritrea to its north. What is so important about Tigre relative to the rest of Ethiopia? Well for many years, the Tigre and People's Liberation Front that sort of dominant political and military entity in Tigre was really first among equals in the ruling coalition for all of Ethiopia so to Graham's played an incredibly prominent role in Ethiopian governance, politics, security But with the rise of the new Prime Minister Ahmed There's been a bit of a re balancing in Ethiopia. And this is kind of opened up contest station from ethnicities across this incredibly diverse country. And there has been kind of widespread feeling that for too long, a small minority from Tigre had too much control of the federal government. So there's political tension between Tigre and Addis Ababa. Are there also historical grievances between two grand central government that we need to mention? I mean, is there a back story here? Tigre is now fighting at us. There's a lot of back story Ethiopian and certainly to Gran's were and incredibly, they weren't just dominant, politically and in the security services for many years, certainly under the leadership of Prime minister malice, But they also suffered most in the long and very costly in blood and treasure war with your tria. So there is there's also you know, a sense of probably grievance in that sense. Abby's come to power they feel targeted by new personnel choices by new policy choices. What maybe others in Ethiopia see as a re balancing the Tigre ins can often feel like persecution despite the tremendous sacrifices that they have made for the country. There are reports from Tigre oven. Ethiopian air campaign heavy bombardment at times. I mean, what's at stake here as far as you can tell ambassador Is it a possible civil war between two grands and Ethiopian troops? There is Tigre saying. We've had enough. We want independence. How should we interpret what's going on? We should absolutely be worried about a civil war, which I don't think would necessarily be contained just Teo, the Tigre region, giving all of the other tensions and actors. So what's at stake? You know the wellbeing of over 110 million Ethiopians. Regional stability. Conflict in Ethiopia has a very high chance of drawing in Eritrea. Sudan, tipping the balance of Sudan zone very fragile transition. Ethiopia's incredibly important actor in trying to bring stability to Somalia to South Sudan distracted and weekend. Ethiopia is really quite devastating, Tio this entire horn region which is strategically really significant, and there are a lot of actors external to Africa. In the Gulf, the Chinese and from the West, all of whom care deeply about stability in this region, so the prospect of drawing others in of proxy conflict it's really a powder keg, and the consequence will not be confined solely to what's happening inside Ethiopia's borders. Michelle Gavin, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She also served as ambassador to Botswana from 2011 to 14. Ambassador Gavin Thank you very much. Thank you.

Tigre Ethiopia Michelle Gavin Ambassador Gavin Prime Minister Ahmed Sudan Eritrea Council On Foreign Relations Addis Ababa Graham Federal Government Abby Somalia Africa Gulf Ambassador Gavin Thank Botswana