20 Burst results for "Michael Purvis"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Today's The Bloomberg top Business stories and Act. global This business is Bloomberg Business Week. Broadcasting I'm Carol 24 Masser and has I'm hours hungry. released a Palestinian day at And I'm bloomberg Tim prisoners Stenebeck. .com. as part Stay of with a temporary And us. the cease fire deal with Israel. Qatari and Israeli officials confirmed group a of 39 prisoners that included women and teenage boys have been released from three prisons. It came after the release 24 of hostages by Hamas. The hostages crossed into Egypt before being transferred to southern Israel. President Biden says Hamas wants to disrupt a deal to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That's what he told reporters Friday while speaking on the release of hostages held by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. I believe one of the reasons why Hamas struck when they did was they knew that I was working very closely with the Saudis and others in the region to bring peace to the region by having recognition of Israel. Biden says that's a major reason why Hamas brutally attacked Israel in early October. Administration has pushed for the normalization of ties between the two countries, which are Washington's two most powerful allies in the Middle East. Pro -Palestinian supporters are disrupting traffic and Black Friday shopping in Manhattan with another rally and another one planned for tomorrow. Here's Natalie Migliori. It's one of many Friday afternoons where pro -Palestinian supporters mobilized, marching from Park Washington north, Square their message always the same. They want a full ceasefire and to free Palestine. It comes after nearly three dozen pro -Palestinian supporters were arrested Thursday for disrupting the Thanksgiving Day parade while the New York Public Library's main branch was vandalized with pro -Palestinian messaging. Another pro -Palestinian group planning to hold a rally Saturday afternoon with organizers calling on participants to shut it down for Palestine. I'm Natalie Migliori, New York. Americans are being reminded to be safe when it comes to eating Thanksgiving leftovers according to the Department of Health and Human Services. Food can safely be eaten up to four days later if properly refrigerated, but they say you should not leave the food out for more than a couple of hours. I'm Matt Siegel. A new study shows that eating popcorn can help lower the risk of dementia. Sarah Lee Kessler has more. Researchers at Rush University in Chicago tracked 3 ,300 seniors for six years, and they found that those who ate at least three ounces of grains whole a day, such as popcorn or quinoa or cereal, had a smaller decline in cognitive scores than those who barely ate whole grains. Researchers say they only saw that effect in black participants. The reason? Well, they don't know, but six out of ten seniors who took part in the study were black. Anti -immigrant protests are breaking out in Ireland after five people were injured in a knife attack in In Dublin, Mark Mayfield says one man is being questioned. Reports say three children were among the victims who were stabbed Thursday in a downtown park. One of the children is said to be in serious condition. The attack triggered riots in downtown Dublin. Video shows protesters clashing with police and burning vehicles with some holding signs reading Irish Lives Matter. A local police commissioner called the protesters a complete lunatic hooligan faction driven by a far -right ideology. Details about the alleged attacker have not been released. I'm Mark Mayfield. A man who officials believe was a top assassin for El Chapo has been arrested in Mexico. Nestor Perez Salas was arrested by national security forces. Authorities are now looking to extradite him to the United States, for nearly three years. Salas was also allegedly head of security for four of El Chapo's sons. President Biden has praised the arrest as a result of bravery and cooperation between the U .S. and Mexico. Residents of Livingston, Kentucky are returning to the U around Wednesday afternoon spilling sulfur and starting a toxic chemical fire. On Thursday, CSX announced the fire is completely out and officials decided it was safe to let residents return home. Kentucky Governor Andy shear had declared a state of emergency. I'm Brad Siegel. And I'm Charlie Pellet at Bloomberg World headquarters. We do check markets all day long at another Bloomberg. winning It week was four in a row for the S &P 500 index up this week by today however stocks barely budged in a holiday shortened session what to expect for markets between now and the end of the year Michael Purvis is CEO and founder of Tallback and Capital Advisors. My working framework right now is that we will get a continuation of what we've seen and sort of the sprint to the end year -end. I think there's a lot of seasonal patterns at work. You know, if you go back I went back to 1928 and you look at how market the the market is up more than 10 % coming into Q4 more often than not the market is up nicely into year -end. Michael Purvis of Tallback and Capital Advisors and you can hear more of that conversation on the Surveillance Podcast, you can download it wherever you get your podcasts. At UBS Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan says the Fed's inflation fight is on track. There is very very there's very little evidence at all of price stickiness in the United States. When we look at the regional data. You can you can look at the metropolitan area inflation numbers which measures inflation in some of the big really cities of the States. Yes there are several parts of the States where inflation is already below 2%. Paul Donovan of UBS but with Fed rate hikes what does that mean for the economy? Anastas Novnitska is Global Macro Economist at Fidelity International in London and on surveillance this morning she told us she does see a recession next year. So we do expect two or three quarters of negative which is a recession and then a steady recovery. So it's not a very deep recession but nevertheless a slowdown across the board. Anastas Novnitska of Fidelity International. Next week investors will get data on home sales personal income and spending and the PCE deflator which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Justin Wolfers is a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan and on surveillance he talked about the Fed's progress in fighting inflation. One of the most notable things that has happened over the past year really is that Jay Powell has started to talk about inflation in terms of supply shocks. That's a real optimism that the bad times were due to supply and the supply shocks are behind us which gives you a whole lot of reason to feel optimistic that the better times are ahead of it. And you can hear more of the conversation with Justin Wolfers on the surveillance podcast. You can download it wherever you get your podcasts. Spot shares soared 39 % today on a report that the Amazon deal will win EU clearance. Stocks higher S &P up two points up just about one tenth of one percent. The Dow up 117 up three tenths while Nasdaq was down one tenth of one percent. Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Charlie Pelletin. is This Bloomberg Business Week. Insight from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine. Plus global business finance Tech news as it happens. Bloomberg Business Week with Caro Masur and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. Plenty ahead in our second hour of this holiday weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week. A very happy Thanksgiving to everybody. We've got coming up a conversation with the son of renowned chef Emeril Kossi on continuing a family tradition in the kitchen. And along those same lines the patriarch of coffee and espresso maker Ely Cafe tells us what's next for the 90 -year -old company. Plus Ozempic and other weight loss drugs appear to have made a big dent in Thanksgiving food consumption. While less focus on the turkey and trimmings could be an ominous sign of what's to come for food companies. Man it's a series of drugs that's just just in some in the kitchen. We have Panera
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Michael Purvis of tall back and capital advisors. And you can hear more of that conversation on the surveillance podcast. You can download it wherever you your get podcasts. At UBS, global chief economist Paul Donovan says the Fed's inflation fight is on track. There is very, very little evidence at all of price stickiness in the United States. When we look at the regional data, you can look at the metropolitan area inflation numbers which measures inflation in some of the really big cities of the States. Yes, there are several parts of the States where inflation is already below 50%. Paul Donovan of UBS, but with Fed rate hikes, what does that mean for the economy? Stotnitska is global macroeconomist at Fidelity International in London and on surveillance this morning she told us she does see a recession next year. So we do expect two or three quarters of negative growth which is a recession and then a steady recovery. So it's not a very deep recession but nevertheless a slowdown across the board. Anna Stotnitska of Fidelity International. Next week investors will get data on home sales, personal income and spending and the PCE deflator which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Justin Wolfers is a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan and on surveillance he talked about the Fed's progress in fighting inflation. One of the most notable things that has happened over the past year really is that Jay Powell has started to talk about inflation in terms of supply shocks. That's a real optimism that the bad times were due to supply and the supply shocks are behind us which gives you a whole lot of reason to feel optimistic that the better times are ahead of it. And you can hear more of the conversation with Justin Wolfers on the Surveillance Podcast. You can download it wherever you get your podcasts. iRobot shares soared 39 % today on a report that the Amazon deal will win EU clearance. Stocks higher S &P up two points, up just about one tenth of one percent, the Dow up 117 up three tenths, while Nasdaq was down one tenth of one percent. Global news 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Charlie Pelletin and this is Bloomberg. you took interactive brokers charges USD margin loan rates from 5 .83 % to 6 .83 % rated the lowest margin fees by stockbrokers .com their clients can also earn extra income by lending their fully paid shares of stock join interactive brokers clients from 200 plus countries and territories to invest in stocks options futures funds and bonds on 150 global markets great subject to change learn more at ibkr .com slash compare download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code I heart new customers can bet five dollars on the NFL thanksgiving action to score 150 instantly in bonus bets only on DraftKings Sportsbook with code I heart the crown is yours is gambling problem call 1 -800 -GAMBLER or visit 1 -800 -GAMBLER .net
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In 24 hours partnership with a the day Office at of Minority Bloomberg Health .com and Health and the Bloomberg Business Act. I and think the this American goes Medical higher Association, for longer, and I'm talking about equity markets right now. The data continues to come in pretty good. There's been tremendous momentum in the consumer. As we look forward, we think that those excess savings are basically spent. We're still actually a long way from price stability. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. Good morning everyone. Jonathan Ferrell, Lisa Brammetson, Tom Kean on radio, on television. Staggering August into is what we do, and we stagger tomorrow to the ISM data John Farrow taught me. It matters. Within all that we've got, earnings, economics, and all that John, we start tomorrow with that first indicator ISM. You make us all sound drunk Tom, going into the data tomorrow, staggering towards Amazon Amazon and Apple on Thursday. TK, it's a big week to kick off the month of August, just around the corner. It's a week big to do the data, and as I've said earlier, I think the earnings story here and the great misguess that we got on earnings and all that is part of the economic data. Apple and Amazon equates to ISM. Typically we would say the market's not the economy and would pick out the tech names that have raced to these double digit gains year to date and say they're tech, they're not representative of the economy. But the economy's been doing much much better than expected. And there are several stories outside of big tech which speak to the resilience of discretionary spending in America. We joked about cruise lines a little bit earlier this morning. The airlines as well have been a big story for trade. Maybe it's two Americas. Lisa, what I would go to, we mentioned this earlier, is very quietly the story of July reported as West Texas Intermediate 81 the barrel rounded up Brent crude $86 a barrel is up a nice percentage. And a lot of people are wondering why it didn't happen sooner given that everybody is going around whether it's cruise ships or whether planes right demand is better than the actual consumption of gas of oil has actually it has actually gone to some new record. So this isn't necessarily either an economy or a world moving away from fossil fuels or people who are slowing down, which raises a question of why it isn't even higher at a time when people say the supply demand balance is completely out of whack time as a deep into my sabbatical, the provost called said I have to publish off papers it. You know what my on what's working papers in peer review right now. Okay, the Tao of tank. It's going to be very good. Anyways, off my sabbatical, what intruded was the Bank of Japan. And I'm sorry, the Bank of Japan intrudes again. I got a 142 22. And yeah, and I guess against a nothing but the Bank of Japan has acted so the Bank of Japan in their own words haven't dropped yield curve control. They're just going to tolerate some breach of the point five ceiling that they've had for a while and pledged to come in at 1 % every single day if they need to, but then they came in at point 6%. So I think we're still asking the same questions from Friday is to line a in the sand. Do they care about pace or levels? Have they shifted policy tweaked it whatever word you want to pick on Friday to make the easing more sustainable or is this a genuine step towards tightening? And the fact that we're all sitting here trying figure to it out speaks to the ambiguity that you and I've been talking about at least for the last couple of days. It is by design and at the moment it's not having any negative consequences for now. At least if it starts to induce volatility and the market starts to test them because they're not providing that clarity then we've got a very very different story. And if you take it a step further is the strategic ambiguity that the Bank of Japan is executing only possible because we're also getting strategic ambiguity from the ECB and from the Federal Reserve. Where does strategic ambiguity come from? It was Friday, right? His nephew. But he actually... Somebody mentioned this, like the Bank of Japan or somebody? No, that was Jeff Yu, Was I believe. it Jeff Yu? And Mike Apin of Bank of America to disrupt the Federal Reserve. Sure. It's a phrase everyone's thrown around Tom at the moment. The idea here is they are not looking to provide non -guidance. They don't want guidance. They want the markets to go on their own accord according to the data and not driven by any expectation of their policy. My strategic ambiguity is that Red Sox couldn't get it done not once but twice against the San Francisco Giants this weekend. John, let's start the data check here. I'm going to go to the all -time high measure. How far are these equity indices away from the all -time high? SPX up 5%, Dow up 3%, NASDAQ 100 adjusted rebalance up 5 % as well. We're getting there. Wow, and some people are still calling it a bear Some people are. Not Michael Purvis will get there in a moment. equity futures right now positive by 0 .1 % on the S &P 500. There's that lift in crude at 1%. Lisa on top of that story. dollars $81 40 cents on WTI just about unchanged 395 .88 if you are just tuning in the data out of Europe GDP at least has some growth that's where the line is in Europe right now But CPI is still a problem. Core inflation in the Eurozone 5 .5 % Tom. with an ECP still I'm ignoring about what they're going to do in September. We launch into August right now with the most important interview of day. the He's a tallback in capital advisors and with decades of experience he writes a piercing direct note Michael Purvis joins us the CEO of tallback and Mike for congratulations on being in the saying market I've got to participate in the market what's the now what on a second leg you bounce off 73 big recession pop in 75 nobody in January of 76 was ready for the second leg how do you frame the second leg of this bull market right now well I think I mean the big tech has clearly done a lot of impressive lifting here they blazed the path forward they've had the most aggressive PE expansion I think too much be expansion you know you look at Nvidia's earnings which have been you know bottoms -up Street consensus estimates have doubled over the last quarter kind of steal some thunder from what's going to be coming I think later this summer so I I'm not sure you know the AI excitement you know I think we're going to go into much more of a Missouri show me type of mentality on on a lot of the AI narrative the rest of the market however value and cyclicals you know it's been a tough thing to own because we're supposed to get this recession right at some point there that said the valuation it's night and day
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Com. Air traffic is being slowed in Florida due to a huge computer malfunction. The FAA says air traffic control issues are triggering hours long flight delays to most of Florida's airports. Miami international, Fort Lauderdale Hollywood international and Orlando international airports are all reporting delays. The FAA says the commuter issues are being resolved. The man accused of stabbing and killing four university of Idaho students plans to wave extradition. Brian co burger's attorney said on Saturday that waving extradition to Idaho is a procedural issue. Co burger was arrested last week in Pennsylvania his home state, NBC News reports a big crack in the case came from DNA, specifically genetic genealogy, a 19 year old main man is being charged with attempted murder after allegedly attacking three New York City police officers and Times Square on New Year's Eve. The suspect Trevor bickford remains hospitalized after being shot in the shoulder, while the three officers have all been released from the hospital. I'm Tammy trujillo. Adam dived in these Pellegrini and the Bloomberg newsroom. They've closed the books on 2022. It's a new trading year and some including Michael purvis, CEO of tal Beck and capital adviser is probably glad to put the toughest year for the S&P 500 since the financial crisis behind them. From 2022, when I certainly got raw and coming into it, was the persistence of inflation, which I underestimated inflation, which means I underestimated rates, which means I overestimated the PE that the S&P 500 would maintain. And purpose with us there on Bloomberg radio, rebound for stocks in Europe, the German Dax gaining more than 1% and in Paris, the Kaka almost 1.9% London closed for the long weekend holiday in Asia, South Korea's Cosby slipped about a half a percent as a country limits travelers from China on COVID concerns travel stocks getting especially hard hit. Tesla's stock to watch as we head to the U.S. open tomorrow, the EV maker delivering a record number of vehicles last quarter, but still missed estimates. Investors in the U.S. on inflation alert, with the next fed meeting in February, and the monthly jobs data coming out this Friday. And then all the carnage on Wall Street in 2022, drug maker Merck actually had its best yearly gain in more than two decades, more from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet. Denise Merck was the top performing drug maker in the S&P 500 in 2022 as investors rewarded the company for strong earnings and upbeat clinical trial data, the stock gained 44% last year and is now trading at a record as the maker of the blockbuster cancer drug keytruda, an HPV vaccine gardasil got a boost from the companies solid earnings results. Denise? Thank you, Charlie. The fitness business bulking up for a fresh wave of business. Jim's across country, prepping for those new year's resolution memberships. West Jones has been managing gyms for over a decade. He says when people decide to pump up Jim's need to staff up. We have been taking the past couple of weeks to make sure that we're going to be properly staffed and that everybody's trained and ready for the influx. And John's manages a team at club four fit in Birmingham, Alabama
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Adam dug did these Pellegrini in the Bloomberg newsroom. They've closed the books on 2022. It's a new trading year and some including Michael purvis, CEO of tal Beck and capital advisers, probably glad to put the toughest year for the S&P 500 since the financial crisis behind them. From 2022, when I certainly got raw and coming into it, you know, was the persistence of inflation, which I underestimated inflation, which means I underestimated underestimated rates, which means I overestimated the PE that the S&P 500 would maintain. And purpose with their ugly burg radio, rebound first stocks in Europe, the German Dax gaining more than 1% and in Paris, the cat cup almost 1.9% London closed for the long weekend holiday in Asia, South Korea's Cosby slipped about a half a percent as a country limits travelers from China on COVID concerns travel stocks getting especially hard hit. Tesla's stock to watch as we head to the U.S. open tomorrow, the EV maker delivering a record number of vehicles last quarter, but still missed estimates. Investors in the U.S. on inflation alert, with the next fed meeting in February, and the monthly jobs data coming out this Friday. And then all the carnage on Wall Street in 2022, drug maker Merck actually had its best yearly gain in more than two decades, more from Bloomberg's Charlie pellet. Denise Merck was the top performing drug maker in the S&P 500 in 2022 as investors rewarded the company for strong earnings and upbeat clinical trial data, the stock gained 44% last year and is now trading at a record as the maker of the blockbuster cancer drug keytruda, an HPV vaccine gardasil got a boost from the companies solid earnings results. Denise, thank you, Charlie. The fitness business bulking up for a fresh wave of business. Jim's across country, prepping for those new year's resolution memberships. West Jones has been managing gyms for over a decade. He says when people decide to pump up gyms need to staff up. We have been taking the past couple of weeks to make sure that we're going to be properly staffed and that everybody's trained and ready for the influx. And John's manages a team at club four fit in Birmingham, Alabama. A dispute over a skull shaped bottles now more than a spirited debate, and as Bloomberg's Tracy junkie also reports a major retailer is now also involved in this. Call it the case of the crystal skull. Sounds like a murder mystery, but the plaintiff is a vodka brand founded by Dan Aykroyd, the star of comedy classics, Ghostbusters, and trading places. The company behind crystal head vodka is suing TJ Maxx for selling skull shaped glass bottles that allegedly look too much like its own skull shaped bottles. Tracy junkie, Bloomberg radio. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries. In the newsroom, I'm Denise Pellegrini. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"For the company a little over 40 flights or just 1% of in canceled today. The number is a huge drop from the almost 3000 each of the past few days which accounted for roughly 60% of all flights from the airline. Police confirm and arrest has been made in the brutal murders of four Idaho college students, Moscow, Idaho police chief James fry, identified 28 year old suspect Brian koberger and confirmed he was taken into custody today in Pennsylvania. President Biden is pardoning 6 people who already served time for crimes. The pardons announced Friday include 5 people convicted of minor drug or alcohol related offenses and a woman who killed your abusive husband in the 1970s. It's the third time this year the president has used his clemency power. House speaker Nancy Pelosi is announcing the house will raise its staff salary cap, the new maximum salary for House employees will be $212,100. The change comes 7 months after the cap was raised to nearly $204,000 in May. I'm Chris. And I'm Charlie pellet, at Bloomberg world headquarters. It is on to the trading year of 2023, stocks move lower on the final trading day of 2022, closing out the worst year in more than a decade for global equities and bonds. Even after a surge in dip buying in the last hour of trading, the S&P 500 did and lower for a third day. As for where we go from here, Josh wine is portfolio Mediterranean Hennessey funds, he says the markets are now set up nicely for a big year. We're at a good place. I think that the differential between an earnings yield of roughly 6 and a ten year of 3.8, that spread of over 2%. That's pretty compelling. I think over time that has presaged a big run in the market. Josh wein of Hennessy. But on everyone's mind heading into the new year is what happens with the path of interest rates and the Federal Reserve Christina hooper is chief global market strategist at invesco. My expectation is that they will pivot. I'm certainly they want to continue talking tough because they don't want markets to get ahead of themselves. They do, of course, keep in the backs of their heads. The failure in the 1970s of getting the job done. So clearly that is going to influence how aggressive and hawkish their rhetoric is. Invesco's Christina hooper, but at north star asset management, ivy Jack, co chief investment officer, says her list of concerns goes beyond the Federal Reserve. There's so many other factors at play, including China, whether or not China can open. How Europe deals with energy prices given the Ukraine western war. There's still so many variables that we just don't know about. That could lead to another really, really challenging year. North star's ivy Jack, so what went wrong with forecasts for this year, Michael purvis is the CEO of tall back in capital advisers. From 2022, when I certainly got wrong coming into it, you know, was the persistence of inflation, which I underestimated inflation, which means I underestimated underestimated rates, which means I overestimated the PE that the S&P 500 would maintain. Michael pervis, but for the new year, the inflation outlook does remain a wild card, Joe Gilbert is portfolio manager at integrity asset management. We just basically see inflation will come down. The fed will stop raising rates as earnings estimates will go down on earnings multiples will go up and we think that will lead to a strong equity performance. Joe Gilbert of integrity asset management, a down Friday, the S&P fell 9 points down .25% for all of 2022 it was down 19.4%. The Dow today down 73 down two tenths of 1% NASDAQ down 11 down one tenth of 1%. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Charlie Pablo. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg businessweek podcast, a conversation with morning consult economist Kay LeBron about the strength of the U.S. consumer headed into 2023. My big concern is that consumer budgets are just starting off 2023 in a much weaker position than they did in 2022. We've seen in our surveys that we collect from among consumers that it's been rising all year the share who are saying that their monthly expenses, total more than their incomes. So they've been working away at their savings debt levels have been increasing and getting more expensive with interest rates. So all of those factors, I think are making the consumer a bit weaker. What's been surprising is how resilient spending has been so far, but the question now is kind of our incomes going to close the gap enough with inflation to kind of allow them to keep spending or we're seeing more price sensitivity, the holidays were a big toll on many. So are they going to be able to sustain possible growth in 2023? Well, I'm curious, Kayla, when you look at the data that we've gotten so far, have any of those ratios given you concerned because when you point those out to certain people and you say, this could be bad. They say, well, you have to compare it to the financial crisis and other sort of recessionary periods that we went through. And they say, well, it's not bad when you stack it up against that. What worries me is that, you know, you think about how what did consumers use to spend, they have incomes, they have savings, they have debt. And where we are now is they worked their way through the savings through their savings to a larger degree than they did at the start of last year. Incomes are still not keeping up with prices. If that changes, that could help, but for now purchasing power is going down. And then debt levels is that final piece, which has not been a big concern in
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is listening. Market analysis that goes beyond the ordinary. Again, I learned another function from Matt Miller today. Bloomberg markets with polls weenie and Matt Miller. Why is this stock so unloved? Weekdays at 10 a.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio. Day as we are seconds away from the opening bell lower that is the direction of travel, not much. This is an afterthought considering the political news of the morning. And that's to me, really notable considering where yields are. We were talking about the shift upward, lower we could see right now at the ten year yield 4.15% almost 4.16%. And to go off script here and our special coverage, we forgot claims it was right when the prime minister came out of the door of 10 Downing Street. We see him with mister Cameron and miss May and with Boris Johnson and claims gave Jerome Powell a 75 basis points statistic. Yeah, which is not exactly what he wants. And there is this fiction. A good number. Good news is bad news, and that's what we're seeing on Wall Street very much dominated right now by the United Kingdom and Liz truss stepping down a really highlighting though. The tenuousness of an inflationary environment for political parties globally. And our special coverage we're on until taught him wins again, right? So then we're going to schedule to the right now. We want to just get a sense so honestly. It is important to put this into perspective and Michael purvis can help us do that. Just briefly, before diving back into the political fray in the United Kingdom, Michael purvis, of top capital, as you've been parsing through, all of the political discussion, how much of a message you take back to markets, to this idea that they are in charge, and they're imposing fiscal discipline. Well, I think there's a really important overarching theme here that we can divine from this whole trust episode here, which is that, look, the fed has been on this sort of America first monetary policy that has been of course very hawkish as it needs to tamp down inflation here in the U.S.. But when you have fiscal experiments overseas that are put forward and that are that are not sensible policies, what it means for global risk assets is really, really sort of magnify here. So you have a collision. What you're saying here is that the range of big weird outcomes for the markets is much higher and you have this collision of bad fiscal policy with what that is doing right now. And I think that's very very, very important. I mean, I think it's a fair statement that central banks generally like low currency balls here. It just makes the job easier. And we're in a state of where we can talk about rate fall, being super high and of course equity falls high. But FX balls are super, super high here. And it ultimately makes the Central Bank, you know, we're all grappling through wind central banks are going to be more sort of not let around the nations by inflation and hydrocarbons. And when they can actually lead as opposed to reactive. And these types of situations only make central banks, whether it's the BOE or even spillover to the bed more reactive. Michael, that's right where I wanted to go. You know, sharing to join us later in this hour with a real focus on the United Kingdom economy, but as mister pervis folks talks about in the course of his careful study of the Pacific Rim and ADX, it is thrilling to bring you this morning Nick Bennet Brooke. He is Wells Fargo international economist, but he viscerally understands a Pacific Rim with his heritage of New Zealand and far more is the only person on the planet who has been award winning and foreign exchange in back to back years. Nick, I guess it's good you're not an FX strategist this morning. Pervis talks about FX vol give us the vow we're gonna see on British pound Sterling. Well, I think certainly for the next few days, we can expect this volatility to continue. It might actually be in the upwards direction because you could argue that political and policy uncertainty is reducing in the United Kingdom. And so we might see a bit more of a relief and go back towards the sort of even up to the one 13 one 14 level. So I think we're going to see some further up move. Over the months ahead, I think is the settles will start to see markets calm down a little and we might actually start to see the pound when it's faced with the reality of the UK economy, the pound might start to go back some of those gains. Nick, to what Michael pervis alluded to. And if it is Britain in crisis, maybe it's hungry and crisis, maybe it's Thailand in crisis, will Jerome Powell need to blink because of the international economics and politics. We observe. No, I don't think you will have to blink. I mean, we would still expect the 75 basis point increase at that November meeting from the field. And as one of your I think we still look for 50 and eventually getting to 5% on the fed funds rate. I think the UK events are instructive in the sense of it does come back as one of your previous gifts. Unorthodox or unusual out of the fiscal policies. And we are fairly unorthodox in the case of the UK just in terms of the magnitude and the way that they were delivered. And it doesn't look like here in the U.S., for example, or even across the Eurozone in general that we're going to see such expansive fiscal policy. So for the major markets, I think it won't be an issue. But for the markets that you mentioned, the likes of Hungary and Thailand, they may face some challenges. Michael purvis still with us and Michael, I'd love to get your take on what Nick is talking about, that there is some more stability, but the stability speaks to a more significant downturn, at least in the short run based on the lack of borrowing. How much are you factoring that into some of your outcomes in your thesis? Well, look, I think what this whole trust episode really sort of reiterates is that we need kind of boring policy, if you will. And I think there's this inevitable tension where a politician's biggest and one of their biggest enemies is surging food and energy inflation. And there's always sort of a temptation to put in novel novel fiscal policies when they're not when they're actually the worst things for the situation. So we kind of need to see things get a lot more boring. But I agree with my co guest that I think for the major markets here, if things can be a little bit more static and stable, then more of the blow ups will be relevant relegated to more than niche, the niche markets here. But I think if the takeaway here from this trust situation is that she's gone and we're going to go to a much more technocratic and less quote unquote innovative fiscal policy. So responses to this high inflation, that's going to be. Enhanced market stability here, which is sorely needed. Perhaps another way of saying talk of MMT might have died a very rapid death over the past few months. Nick Ben and brook is still with us. I'm wondering what this means in terms of energy policy for
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"There on the fed on the choices on the optionality, the degrees of freedom that any given Central Bank has he's been someone who says, look at inflation, here's what it could be interesting to see. If he visits Wall Street week this week and where professor summers is on the inflation report that we've seen, we're 12 minutes away from an incredibly important claims report, yes, PPI as well. I guess final demand PPI will be of interest, but claims to me is absolutely front and center. This is what we like to do. We are driven by the research of our guests. And when someone writes a piercing note, we say Michael purvis of tall back and we don't care that you're living large in Spain, we need to speak to you in the Spanish afternoon of a 4 p.m. with a sangria or a martini by his side, Michael pervis joins us on optimism on the market. Michael, I would predict every strategist, every market, savant has to come out this weekend and adjust. How did you adjust this morning? Well, look, I've been arguing that the recession economic contraction was really a pretty speculative argument that that was the argument that had been made pretty substantially. And this in the last two weeks, we've had the three most important economic data points, you know, the ISM, the services ISM, the non farm payroll, and then the inflation yesterday come in just the way you want them in terms of affirming that not necessarily in a high in place of negative growth or contractionary condition there. So when you look at positioning, Tom, and this is both treasury positioning and equity positioning. It is extremely barriers on both sides there, right? So the market is, there's a vacuum there. And when you have those three important data points line up, you're looking at Q two earnings that actually the beats on earnings from both evidence and earnings were better than the Q one D, you're looking at a situation where the market is going to move higher. So I have a tactical call up another 200 points to 4400 and my yearend call adjusted at 4500. I'm not saying we're completely out of the Woods, but I think the certainly for the near term water is going to move higher not lower. Michael, how much is your conviction right now underpinned by this idea that we just heard from Jim Paulsen, which is that we are at the beginning of an easing cycle that inflation is rolling off much more quickly than the fed is expecting and that they're going to have to catch up with the market. Look, I think there's sort of looking at the Euro dollar features curve and looking at the, I think it's 50 basis points right now, cuts next year. I think that's an aggressive assumption here, but from an how assets trade point of view, we see some stability where sort of peak hawkishness going from this fed pivot of just a year ago being categorically divers to now sort of categorically caucus, right? That's one of the most aggressive pivots that policy. You're going to have that asset prices disrupted. And we've had that, right? So I think right now, that is it. And so whether we get 50 basis points, 75 basis points or zero basis points in constant 23, I think as long as we can look at something that's resembling some sort of stability in the bond market, that's almost more important than what the average expectation for your dollars. Michael, how much do you take a look at this idea that you had the biggest increase in food prices going back to 1979, rents are surging. You see areas in nondiscretionary spending that are crimping the average American household balance sheet. And that has yet to fully play out. How do you factor that into your bullish thesis? Well, that's a very good, very fair point. And I do think there's very strong arguments for a lot of components of inflation to state higher, longer, right? But I think the question is, if the markets and the economy can sort of adjust to that, right? Then I think the paces of that sort of inflationary surges are going to be very different than what we've seen over the last 9 months, right? It's really the surge in the velocity of these inflation prints that have really disrupted the market. If we get to a point where we never get down to 2% and we're sort of adjusting to a new normal because of re global de globalization, we localization, higher food prices, energy supply that never really fully expand so that the oil gets down to 50 bucks again. Then I think you can look at a condition where those types of dynamics will play out in a much slower and basis and the economy can sort of adjust to them. But maybe the ten year doesn't go back to 2%. It may be that it's three to 4%, but if it stays there and then you can have the condition for risk assets to be supported. Is there going to be fundamental support though when we're thinking about earnings? Because as we talk about these inflationary pressures, there has been a lot of warning on the more bearish end of the spectrum from Mike Wilson, for example, about margin pressure coming on. And as I now look at an S&P 500 trading back at a multiple almost at 19 on forward earnings, when are we going to start to maybe have a problem with that denominator? Yeah, well, the earnings question, earnings, bottoms up consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg are up about 6 and a half percent from the beginning of the year. That's unusual. Usually they go down to the year. And the Q two numbers have been generally pretty good. I think it's important to recognize that if you have a high inflationary environment without an economic major economic contraction, meaning PMIs in the 40s or 30s, right? You will have high earnings growth in the 1970s. You didn't have a great real GDP condition. You had this had a lot of inflation. But earnings growth was literally twice as high in the 1970s than it was in the 1960s when real GDP averaged like 4.3% for that decade there. And I think that's one of those things that high nominal GDP in wash away it actually helped margins for many companies, right? And certainly the top line is inflated by revenues as well. So you're not seeing a lot of margin depression. The other story, the market, again, I'm talking about the S&P 500 Index level, right? Obviously, there's a lot of specific sectors where there's a lot
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Disney so just failure on someone What Bloomberg markets extensive essential and endlessly entertaining I'm not a pet person I'm a financial analyst By the way someone writes in and says I didn't realize Paul hated American values Week three mornings at ten eastern on Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Legendary comedic actress Betty White is being remembered by President Biden and Americans on Friday Biden telling reporters it's a shame she passed away just prior to celebrating what would have been her 100th birthday Officials in boulder county Colorado are allowing some residents to go back to their homes after the massive martial fire The partial reopening will return power to homes in the superior area but gas will remain shut off Well this woman says some of those displaced can relocate to an Airbnb The Airbnb listings for evacuees and refugees are free Officials say they don't expect the burn perimeter of the fire Now 6000 acres to get any bigger two people have been injured after a shooting inside the mall of America in Minnesota on Twitter police say it happened in the afternoon victims suffered non life threatening injuries Police say one man was shot in the leg a second victim appeared to be grazed by a bullet The crimson tide is moving on to the national championship the university of Alabama football team beat out Cincinnati 27 to 6 in the college football playoff semifinal I'm Scott Carr And I'm Charlie pellet nap Bloomberg world headquarters We closed the books on 2021 with a yearly gain of 26.9% for the S&P 500 Index can those gains continue into next year Michael purvis is the CEO of tall back in capital advisers I actually think it can And I think there's sort of an instinctive natural suspicion but hey you can't get four double digit years in the S&P 500 in a row That just not supposed to happen And I think while I appreciate that sort of instinctive concern I actually you know Mike price target for next year is 5500 which is up another 15% from where we are right now Michael purvis of tall backing as we look ahead to 2022 one of the big questions is the number of rate increases from the Federal Reserve Christina hooper is chief global market strategist at invesco I do believe that the fed will have only three rate hikes in 2022 or less And the market expects three rate hikes So I think that creates a relatively supportive environment for risk assets Christina hooper of investigo so stocks and the year with a rally that few predicted back in January even after a slide late in the final trading day the Dow the S&P and NASDAQ all declined in a choppy session with thin volumes S&P down today by 12 points down three tenths of 1% Dow industrials down 59 down two tenths of 1% NASDAQ down 96 a drop of 6 tenths of 1% Again for the year the S&P 500 Index was up 26.9% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take power by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie pellet this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Federal energy regulatory commission members have ten audits going on regarding gas market participant behavior Texas lawmakers have long questioned whether there was collusion regarding natural gas outages when the storms hit It would be a very happy new year indeed to whomever might end up winning one of the two massive lottery jackpots in the next two nights The jackpot for this evening's mega millions drawing is now at $221 million while there's 500 million bucks up for grabs and tomorrow night's Powerball drawing That's a combined total of $721 million I'm Scott Carr And I'm Charlie pellet nap Bloomberg world headquarters We close the books on 2021 with a yearly gain of 26.9% for the S&P 500 Index can those gains continue into next year Michael purvis is the CEO of tall back in capital advisers I actually think it can And I think there's sort of an instinctive natural suspicion but hey you can't get four double digit years in the S&P 500 in a row It just not supposed to happen And I think while I appreciate that sort of instinctive concern I actually you know my price target for next year is 5500 which is up another 15% from where we are right now Michael purvis of tall backing as we look ahead to 2022 one of the big questions is the number of rate increases from the Federal Reserve Christina hooper is chief global market strategist at invesco I do believe that the fed will have only three rate hikes in 2022 or less And the market expects three rate hikes So I think that creates a relatively supportive environment for risk assets Cristina hooper of invesco so stocks and the year with a rally that few predicted back in January even after a slide late in the final trading day the Dow the S&P and NASDAQ all declined in a choppy session with thin volumes S&P down today by 12 points down three tenths of 1% Dow industrials down 59 down two tenths of 1% NASDAQ down 96 a drop of 6 tenths of 1% Again for the year the S&P 500 Index was up 26.9% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take power by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie pallop this is Bloomberg This is masters in business with Barry Reynolds on Bloomberg radio I'm Barry Rita you're listening to masters of business on Bloomberg radio My extra special guest this week is professor Richard nesbitt He is the co director of the culture and cognition program at the University of Michigan focusing on culture and reasoning and basic cognitive processes No less than Malcolm gladwell called him the most influential thinker in my life and when professor David dunning yes that dunning offered to make an introduction I jumped at the chance professor Richard nisbit welcome to Bloomberg Thank you It's my pleasure to have you Before we dive in I just want to give you a little bit about my background because I have no real psychology background My bias is the worlds of behavioral finance and cognitive errors really in the context of investing decisions especially bad investing decisions So pardons some of the naivete that I may exhibit in some of my questions there's like the slightest bit of overlap between what I've looked at And your whole career and that's why I found it So interesting and let's start with your career There's nothing really in your background growing up in El Paso and in California That suggests an academic career in psychology What led you to the study of human reasoning and decision making I think it was just lock and key That's what I was meant to do but I learned it very early fortunately I read Calvin hall's primer of Freudian psychology and it was just that that's what I'm going to do Right Ryan interesting I really like the idea that has been talked about and you referenced it in your book thinking a memoir which we'll talk about in a few moments that the human propensity for floored reasoning was advantageous on the Savannah but it really doesn't serve us well in a modern society Tell us a little bit about that Right Well there's a whole enterprise I'm sure you're aware of and psychology and economics showing that people's reasoning is flawed in many respects And most of many people say well that can't be I can manage to get through my day pretty well That's sometimes self delusional but by and large it's correct to say we're not terrible at reasoning across the boards It's just that the industrial revolution and then in spades the information revolution just changed the nature of what we need to do And in our reasoning in everyday life It gave us data It gave us numbers it gave us graphs It gave us reports from people that we never heard of We encounter people that we don't know at all All of this is just completely unanticipated from the life of a hunter gatherer So the problem is the rug has been pulled out from under us So we make errors all the time Quite interesting Some of the research that you've done on cognition is really quite fascinating because it's so challenging to figure out what's actually going on in people's minds I was kind of intrigued by some of the research that was done on birth order and how that impacts people's career choices and aversion to risk-taking or not Tell us a little bit or even how they embrace riskier sports tell us a little bit about birth order and how did you figure out that was significant Well I was my adviser and graduate school at Columbia Stanley schachter Studied birth order and one thing he discovered is that first born females are more frightened of the prospect of electric shock than later born females And that's interesting because I've always been kind of afraid of getting hurt and my younger brother was getting hurt all the time When he was a kid So I sort of file that away And then I heard of one of these people who looks at primates and she studied monkeys And she just made us offhand observation that when a monkey mother has her first baby She's all arms and legs and tails Keep it in the tree You keep it from falling 30 feet down from the forest Canopy By the time her fourth or 5th get has come along the kids falls out of traditional and I'm going to have to pick the thing up She just so first Barnes are protected in a way that later borns aren't So I said how can I test this And I started looking at sports and the birth order of people who play dangerous sports versus non dangerous sports And it turns out there's a later born is about 50% more likely to play a dangerous sport than a first born So and that's I just found out recently There have been 20 studies since all supporting that general statistic And 50% is a giant number We're usually looking for a couple of percent here or there to identify some difference of note This is clearly not only replicable but very significant Yeah it's surprisingly strong If I had been predicting what I'd find myself maybe a ten or 15% edge but no it's huge Coming up we continue our conversation with University of Michigan's professor Richard nisbet discussing his newest book Thinking a memoir I'm Barry results you're listening to masters of business On Bloomberg radio You're listening to masters in business with Barry red holes on Bloomberg radio The market This.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Her last tweet from this past Tuesday was about the milestone saying she can't believe it's coming up President Biden told reporters today it's a shame she didn't make the one century old birthday on Twitter he called her a cultural icon who will be sorely missed The Biden administration's extending International Space Station operations through the year 2030 NASA administrator Bill Nelson said today the administration's committed to working with international partners to continue the research Russia has worked closely with the U.S. aboard the ISS for over 20 years In Colorado residents are coming together for help and support following destructive wildfires and parts of that state One resident offering some advice to those affected But the community be with you more with you help you and whatever way they can Governor Jared polis says the disaster happens so quickly basically taking place over half a day He spoke with President Biden who's authorizing a major disaster declaration I'm Scott Carr And I'm Charlie pellet nap Bloomberg world headquarters We close the books on 2021 with a yearly gain of 26.9% for the S&P 500 Index can those gains continue into next year Michael purvis is the CEO of tall back in capital advisers I actually think it can And I think there's sort of an instinctive natural suspicion but hey you can't get four double digit years in the S&P 500 in a row That just not supposed to happen And I think while I appreciate that sort of instinctive concern I actually you know Mike price target for next year is 5500 which is up another 15% from where we are right now Michael purvis of tall backing as we look ahead to 2022 one of the big questions is the number of rate increases from the Federal Reserve Christina hooper is chief global market strategist at invesco I do believe that the fed will have only three rate hikes in 2022 or less And the market expects three rate hikes So I think that creates a relatively supportive environment for risk assets Christina hooper of investigo so stocks and the year with a rally that few predicted back in January even after a slide late in the final trading day the Dow the S&P and NASDAQ all declined in a choppy session with thin volumes S&P down today by 12 points down three tenths of 1% Dow industrials down 59 down two tenths of 1% NASDAQ down 96 a drop of 6 tenths of 1% Again for the year the S&P 500 Index was up 26.9% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take power by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie pellet this is Bloomberg You're listening to Bloomberg business of sports from Bloomberg radio Thanks for joining us on the Bloomberg business of sports show where we explore the big money issues in the world of sports Michael Barr And I'm Mike lynch And let's continue our conversation now with Boston Globe sports columnist and associate editor Dan shaughnessy How has the game changed from the era when you and lynching were covering the Boston Celtics to the NBA game today on a business sense Well this gets tricky On the business end I mean the money's so big And obviously it's a product of it's a popular product And they Christmas Day for instance they used to be one game Christmas Day and the next would play at home because they had a large Jewish population And it wasn't going to affect the crowd They could sell out the garden on Christmas Day So the next plate at home And TV would pick that came up So that was it Now you've got a 5 game extravaganza coast to coast and time zones and featured all the best teams And it's a great popular product for them The money that the players make you're talking about half $1 billion contracts now And I mean it was always thought it was big but it's just exponentially so much bigger now And with that it's hard to get any kind of to get to know the players or to get near them and they connect with fans on social media directly And franchises are worth astronomical amounts of money So it's just a very money product and tickets are so expensive I mean try going to a Knicks game or something now It's like I don't know how people do it A lot of corporate money I suppose going into it But it's a very expensive product and that just wasn't the case since So a little bit taken away from the common folks And I think the players have at the same time gotten a little bit away from everybody else because the money is so great You see it in all sports but that league in particular it's way way beyond our imagination One of the central themes obviously of 2021 like 2020 was COVID-19 which league is best prepared to make it to the finish line with all their protocols Boy Mike that's a good question I mean the NFL they just go on as if nothing's happening And then they change the rules on the fly when it does We just saw it this week with Carson Wentz the quarterback I mean the rules of last week he couldn't play this weekend but everybody wants them to play in the colts are good And so they've reconfigured the rules Backstage unvaccinated and COVID and 5 day ten day et cetera So anyway they fell into it right from the jump And the first year this we hit in March 2020 there in the off season so they got 6 months to figure out while the others are all on the fly And they had their whole season and move a game here and there like that It's going to be challenging the next 6 weeks Clearly as they get through their playoffs but they tend to just soldier on regardless And they have big rosters They have 53 man rosters And that gave me the other night with a saints who are trying to play It was a farce But people watching TV don't know that the saints offensive linemen are the wrong guys or the second or third stringers I mean they're just they're just looking at the quarterbacks and skill positions in the uniforms and they see they see 11 saints out there So they're okay with it You notice it more clearly NBA right now when you got what used to be 15 Ann rosters now I don't know guys whatever but teams are having trouble getting 8 guys healthy enough to play That's problematic So the winner sports they're just getting crushed with it And then you've got the Canadian rules coming in and this is just it's messy So I think football just gets away with it better than anybody like everything else The NBA commissioner Adam silver says no we're not stopping We're going to keep on going We have no reason to stop What do you think about that I understand I think that the whole country the appetite for this is so people so worn out And we see it every day with schools and businesses and just in.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Back Bloomberg markets We are simulcasting Bloomberg radio Bloomberg TV Matt Miller Berlin Germany may pulse New York City 7 31 lex Bloomberg headquarters So Matt for New Year's Eve in Berlin do the kids go to Brandenburg gate and kind of ring in the new year What's the deal Okay so normally it sounds like an absolute war zone in Berlin On a typical New Year's Eve it would already be so loud behind me you know it's almost 5 30 p.m. here That you would be able to hear it for sure on Bloomberg radio and on Bloomberg television However it must be due to the omicron outbreak we haven't heard any fireworks yet Usually it's an extreme surprisingly shocking amount of fireworks that everyday people set off not a professional fireworks display This year we do have some kind of giant concert going on in the Brandenburg gate for those of you watching on Bloomberg television You can see it behind me If you're listening on Bloomberg radio you probably know that I broadcast from directly in front of the Brandenburg gate It's all it up in blue the quadriga which is the four horse statue on top is shining in gold and they're going to it looks like they're setting up for some kind of concert I don't know who it is if it's like Ariana Grande or be honest or who it is I wouldn't know probably anyway but it looks like it's gonna be a big deal All right good good We'll learn doing something in Times Square I'm not sure what but they're gonna try to limit the access to limit the number of people but they're getting out So we'll see how that all goes Let's talk markets for a little bit here Bringing Vincent Cinderella He's Bloomberg's global macro strategist And Vincent thanks so much for joining us here You know I'm sure you're going to be with the kids down in Times Square but before we let you get there love to get your thoughts on When you talk to traders how do they think 2022 is going to shape up Well I mean by and large the mood of your previous guest is optimism The hope I mean I call it more of a hope as opposed to some of what many are calling or believing as a reality is that the virus will burn itself out sometime around mid January Likely after new year's celebration gatherings and we get through that couple of week period And so they by and large are hoping that that is the case And that we don't see a wage price spiral in inflation And as long as inflation keeps pace with growth we'll continue to see corporate earnings hold up And therefore we'll continue to see stock prices go up I personally think there are so many things that can happen to upset the apple cart I am not as optimistic as I would say the majority of people are So do you expect losses then I mean after three years of stellar double digit gains in equities are we going to see a losing year in 2022 No I wouldn't say losing year necessarily but I would say better levels to buy I think there is going to be a bit of a downturn Besides take into account all of these potential super spreader events and whether or not the variant burns itself out remains to be seen Besides new year's you have the Super Bowl You have the Chinese Olympics You have Mardi Gras I mean there are so many so many things in the next two months where people are going to be getting together in mass And realistically everybody's tired of this thing So guard is dropping And people are not wearing masks maybe as much as they should be And there are still a variety of unvaccinated people out there So I just get the feeling that this is going to go a little bit further into the spring and that we're going to get some kind of a pullback and we're going to get opportunities to get involved and buy stocks at better levels And then going forward I think we'll see the optimism I think in the second half of the year I am so that people get Vincent I'm so pumped for the Super Bowl And for Super Bowl parties the states now I'm moving back Yes Not just in the states I'm moving back in one week and Vincent I'm gonna be living in scarsdale Probably I could hit your house with a golf ball from my place Yeah absolutely We're literally in the next town over So if you have a Super Bowl party I'm in I'm most interested to know what you think about earnings and what you think about multiples because these are two key factors into what happens in the markets right And our last guest sees earnings around two I think two 40 I talked to Michael purvis earlier He sees earnings at two 40 and change And our last guest also said he thinks forward multiples around 21 22 How do you see those two important factors I think we could see them end up there and as I said earlier I don't think we're going to start out that way We're starting to see the labor force have a leg up if you will on corporate America We're seeing some wage gains that we've never we haven't seen in a long time We've seen strikes from unions caterpillar Kellogg for instance and those unions winning out if you will to get better better wages So those wages are going to factor into corporate profits The key of course is whether or not those profits can be passed along and there will only be able to be passed along if the rest of the country the rest of the workforce manages to get wage gains to go with it And we're not talking about wage gains that I think are going to I don't think we're going to see this wage spiral that people talk about We're nowhere near that So the fed isn't going to have to worry about inflation running away necessarily Unless other factors intervene commodity prices for instance But I think in the near term multiples will suffer and earnings will suffer Until the cycle catches up until people are closer to accepting those higher prices All right Vince thank you so much for joining us Always appreciate getting your thoughts Your perspective you spend a lot of time on the street you talk to a lot of traders on the street You've got your finger on the pulse of that Vincent Cinderella Bloomberg's macro strategist giving us his thoughts a little bit more of a cautious outlook from Vince and I can understand that given his experience he's seen the market cycles There are some headwinds there are some bricks in that wall of worry if you will that market participants and markets in general are going to have to deal with in 2022 We'll have more coming up This is.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg radio We're going to have a very volatile year ahead of us Buy the dip half life as I like to call it has been shrinking We will not see a repeat of what we had in the last two years The volatility market is essentially already gotten used to this new normal We might just be back to this low growth sword of high inflation era that we were in pre-pandemic This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramovich From Berlin New York and London for our audience worldwide good morning This is Bloomberg surveillance live on Bloomberg television live on Bloomberg radio You can stream us on the Internet You can probably get us in smoke signals I'm Matt Miller alongside pretty Gupta and Danny Berger Tom Keane Jonathan farrow and Lisa abron witz are off Two of those people don't have a birthday today One of them does Happy birthday Jon fair I hope you're sleeping still In terms of the markets you might as well be asleep pretty We don't really see much going on For me and Danny I'm almost over in the U.S. of course you haven't opened yet and it looks like you're going to open down We have an open yet It's just getting started So don't what's the word here I'm looking for don't put the evil eye on it That's what I'm translating in my head from what my mom thinks Don't drink said that's what I'm saying Sorry truly international programming here folks Yeah you know what's interesting to me though is that the vix is actually higher We're looking at 18 handle when it comes to that volatility gauge I wonder though if it's going to increase as we start to see perhaps a sell off people getting rid of the positions that they do have in the market going into the last day of 2021 Maybe a little bit of a year end repositioning there We've been talking about the light volumes all day I've got another terminal function to throw out for you go Matt this is just really encapsulates just how little people are treating today Currently the composite volume on the stock 600 is 1.6 billion typically at this time of day it is 14 times that amount So you know everyone rightfully at home celebrating John farrow's birthday Yeah exactly And the end of 2020 one Thank goodness That we're ending this year Actually Andy peck ocean was telling us something concerning This is the official I guess or the unofficial two year anniversary of the beginning of COVID This is when the first when the world was first made aware on the Internet of the first case out of Wuhan today two years ago so it feels like it's been more like 15 or 16 years but I guess it's only been 24 months since the first case that we are aware of Let's talk about what we got coming up on this program I think Michael purvis is waiting in the wings somewhere But coming up savate Sith equity research analyst at Raymond James we also have Christina hooper global market strategy that investigo Dan tenenbaum of Oliver Wyman and Mercedes carnet found in the northwestern university feinberg school of medicine So even if the markets aren't moving that much we still have a lot to talk to you about and we are glad if you have joined us here on Bloomberg television and Bloomberg radio Oh the markets Didn't we just go through this I guess we did kind of the S&P futures are down 13 points Euro Right now unchanged at one 13 16 ten year yield also unchanged at one 50 32 The only really interesting move that I can see because the S&P futures that volume is so light it doesn't really matter that much but imex crew down one and a half percent It's not a huge drop but pretty you know I've been looking at nymex and Brent this month and thinking even if you have concerns about inflation even if you're worried about omicron this is an indication that mister market still expects economic demand remains strong Yeah the best really kind of take on whether growth or not is happening or not of course really tied to that gasoline consumption in the United States Of course the consumption in China and India as well the big question though is how much of what's happening in the oil market is a function of what's happening with the European gas crisis how much of that and there's plenty of politics with Russia is being factored in to the price of what you're seeing in Brent crude for that matter I'm so glad you mentioned that because that I think is the one exciting market today It is on track for its biggest drop ever in a week It's down some 24% Dutch front month futures I mean it's a boring day in markets maybe but it still is exciting when it comes to natural gas mat It's not boring at all It's super exciting Thanks for joining us I'm super television and radio Now Danny actually didn't you point out I mean we saw we see the Dutch contracts down like 13% Didn't you show U.S. Nat gas up like four people Yeah it is up It is of course the concern in Europe all has to do with supply more LNG shippers now going to Europe So that's helping to curb some of those record high prices We've seen But in the U.S. it's about cold weather It's a lot of the Midwest That's particularly cold so that means we're on track for gas to have its biggest rise in a year since 2016 So Matt I hope you are prepared for your U.S. move with a lot of parkas and blankets Yeah I'm looking forward to it I like to be able to wear more clothes You're loading up Actually I'm wearing khakis and a blazer today All week I'm not wearing a full suit That's my own personal protest Michael purvis joins us founder and CEO of talbach and capital advisers for all we know He might not be wearing pants But I'm pretty sure he is Michael how are you doing Thanks so much for joining us Happy New Year's Eve day to you What do you make of this I mean it's been an incredible year for people long equities up like 28% And the third year in a row of big double digit gains can this continue I actually think it can And I think there's sort of an instinctive national suspicion but hey you can't get four double digit years in the S&P 500 in a row but just not supposed to happen And I think while I appreciate that sort of instinctive concern I actually you know my price target for next year is 5500 which is up another 15% from where we are right now There And I think it's people have to look back this year I was you know I was among the highest for the year end for this year at 42 50 from 12 months ago when I upgraded that to 4800 in July And here we are almost 4800 I think we took it yesterday But look the arithmetic of the probabilities for me spell it a pretty obvious way The ten years time arrangement that reinforces a pretty healthy equity risk premium And you're looking at nominal GDP next year in the United States of 7 to 8% That's just based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is you can't expect to turn off a global economy and then just ramp it back up overnight Some central banks are going to push back against this market view of where rates are going These expectations are rate hikes next year for the fed They're pretty seriously overcooked There's been a real shift across the globe that seems to demonstrate that central bankers are inherently hawkish I think we will see the hawkish trend continue across global central banks This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich It is a changed more inflationary world Good morning this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg radio on Bloomberg television Tom cane Jonathan farrow Lisa abramo with Sean Ferrell of kaly lines very much in and I do wonder as we talk about the geopolitics this we have been all through this morning Tom how inflation really is the backdrop as we get higher than expected inflationary prints out of the Euro region and upcoming with PCE here in the United States We've been a bit off the market coverage today We're going to try to get back on tracks in this hour and Lisa to your point on inflation What I would suggest for the world leaders in Rome G 20 meeting and on to the 30,000 people in Glasgow What I would suggest is inflation is different in many many different areas It's not just American inflation Well said which really leads me Because I'm not that you did fantastic Honestly with your region what we saw with the ECB is the fact that they're dealing with so many imports The idea of you're still crying from the good job The inflationary print is more disinflationary than in the United States But how does this factor into some of the discussions Tom about supply chain disruptions about how to alleviate this on a global level at a time when there's so many other issues that are pressing And it gets us into November I mean Kaley we're setting up for the year and dash I love what Michael purvis said the beta chase Yeah not the meta chase the beta chase It's meta I don't know Ask Mark Zuckerberg His metaverse were just living in it But Tom I think it does raise the question for November and December what the holiday period is going to look like because what we heard from Amazon and Apple is that it may be disappointing and I know the keyhouse of my concern for whether or not they're going to get their iPhone 13s under the tree I do not agree with this Lisa help me here if there's a catastrophe and Amazon whole foods doesn't do sales They lose those sales right But it's physical tangible stuff We're gonna buy it anyways But here's the issue right At this point how much does that get redeployed or versus Kaylee This is a point you made yesterday People just not buying an addition and waiting for the next one to come out And that is the reason why you saw those shares down And frankly the bigger picture story is that these two stocks account for 10% of the S&P so it's not a minor kind of fall on the supply chain of labor market disruptions Hailey Yeah I mean I love the way analysts over and ever core ISI put it even Goliath feels the pain and Goliath being the operative word there These are the biggest companies out there that are feeling these supply side issues and to Lisa's point I talked about my Apple watch yesterday I didn't want to wait for a new one because I needed one now and I also wonder if I didn't buy an iPhone 13 Why would I take a risk that it's gonna take 6 months to get to me if I can just wait another 6 months and get the 14 which probably given apple's track track record will be even better Let's do a data check right now and we start with a colonnade It's Saint Peter's square There are 284 Doric columns that await the president of the United States in the First Lady is they leave the Pope and the Vatican they will move on to Italian dignitaries and then an important meeting with Bruno lamer's boss mister Macron at the French embassy scheduled later for this morning on the data front futures negative 22 the Vic 17.58 a yield reversal Lisa Let's end the data check right here At least I want you to bring in mister clemons but I'm sorry I've got whiplash in the bond market I don't understand really what's been driving some of the whiplash because we haven't gotten massive statements out of the central banks We haven't necessarily gotten any catalysts that go beyond any other economic data points and yet we have brought forward so much rate hiking expectations that we are talking about a new normal that's frankly central bankers are not pushing back that dramatically against Scott Clement's partner and chief investment strategist at Brown brothers Herriman joining us right now I would love to get your son Scott What you make of the volatility on the front end of the yield curve across the world bleeding into the longer end over the past few days when there really hasn't been a major identifiable catalyst And I think you're right what we're seeing is just a reflection of continued uncertainty in the economy The big sort of 100,000 foot lesson of the last 18 months is that for all of its volatility the economy financial markets are pretty finely tuned And when you dislocate them as COVID did for the past 18 months complex systems do not heal quickly And it almost any data series you look at be at the bond market being inflation GDP the labor market anything is still showing these signs of fibrillation And that's going to take some time to sort out So right now the bond market is being pushed and pulled between what do I believe A 2% GDP growth figure for the third quarter that we got yesterday or do I believe that inflation is the new normal And I think we're going to see more of this volatility on a daily basis as bond market participants sort those issues out Scott Clement Brown brothers harriman goes back almost as far as the setting of the obelisk in Saint Peter's square It's a venerable and ancient firm Your guys idea of short term is three years I'm gonna even say the bbh rule is short term as 5 or ten years How do our listeners and viewers invest for a true bbh long term You focus on the fundamentals and you accept the notion that price volatility is a feature of financial markets It is not a bug If anything I have been surprised that we haven't had more volatility in financial markets over the past 18 months We're getting a little bit now in the bond market We had a little bit in the equity markets in September To me the incoming tide the real driver of the equity market in particular is the growth we're seeing in corporate earnings And furthermore the growth and profitability of corporate earnings That's fundamental That's not day to today price volatility That's the fuel that drives markets forward And I think that's sort of an undertold story driving market sport on a secular basis not to deny but the likelihood even of short term volatility in prices But let's talk about those earnings because things were going well and then two of the biggest companies out there Apple and Amazon had big disappointments after the bell If tech isn't leading the way what does that mean for the broader equity market Well Kaylee is certainly something that worries me because the markets have become so top heavy in a handful of very familiar names that we all in all your viewers that know about that a stumble in some of those very large names like apple like Amazon for example could debt the markets just by virtue of them being such a large representation in the markets Here too we're cautioning our investors to look through that headline volatility and we're active investors so we can choose to avoid some of those large names in technology And find those companies that have been left behind and those companies that have certain characteristics that we think will see them through thick and thin almost no matter where we are in the economic cycle or where we are in the market cycle But as a potential source of near term price volatility absolutely Some of these large technology stocks stumbling for one reason or another is a potential source of price volatility at the index level Scott clemons a personal note and I really would love you to speak to this Ground zero of all that we invented here with Bloomberg on the economy and Bloomberg surveillance is 1907 in the structure of American finance You are on the board of the Morgan library And there is that study of JPMorgan's from 1907 when he saved this nation by simply writing a check What is.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And the earnings overall are probably going to be certainly confirming the upward trend in earnings Michael purvis you are such a cynic to think there would be beta chase here at the end of the year Could you explain from your mortals Michael purvis Not that I've ever seen never beta chase What is beta chase It just simply a professional fund manager If the benchmarks up you know 18% or so year to date and they're at 12% They don't want to end the year trailing the benchmark where that much So they feel like hey maybe I missed something Maybe I was too conservative coming into this or it wasn't in the more aggressive higher risk sectors Let me make sure I'm allocated fully into your red So if they have some cash on the sidelines they put it to work and that helps propel equities into yearend And frankly it often spills over into the first week or 2 of January But if you go back to 1960 Tom you will see that November and December collectively and individually are easily put in the highest meaning of short terms Just shocked Michael purvis Thank you so much for giving us Lisa help me here This has gotta be the banner of the year You're going to bet a chase In the meta space Yes I mean come on That's a really work you gotta call it better Yeah better chase Yeah Honestly Tom I could tell what you think about it as the name Do you want to just make a comment on what you think of it Do you think it's a good name change for Facebook No I go back here No Lisa I go back to Jerry sigh And I grew up with in the shadow of the American can company Lisa my high school girlfriend Oh please Father worked at the American can company And it was taken out by financi fancy financiers from that liberal state of Connecticut and they changed the name to primary And whether it's primarily or sci-fi or all the rest of us Sorry Kelly It's just desperate I'm still trying to wonder what the relationship was You imagine this girlfriend's father and himself Well I wasn't thrilled And the truth is that I'm being sensitive here with President Biden at the Vatican I was at the convent at the time I'm sure you were Which side Convention We will continue if we can get out of this and keep our jobs negative 23 Now with the latest news from New York City and around the world here's Michael Barr DOM Lisa cayley president Joe Biden is meeting with Pope Francis today at the Vatican the two leaders will discuss the COVID-19 pandemic climate change and poverty However Biden support for abortion rights and same sex marriage has put him at odds with many U.S. bishops The house postponed a vote on a $1.75 trillion social spending bill and a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill House progressives were uncertain that the framework would win the support of moderate democratic senators Joe Manchin and Kirsten cinema progressives vowed not to vote on a bipartisan infrastructure Bill unless the spending bill was voted on at the same time Congresswoman pramila jayapal leader of the House progressives said she thinks the bills will pass soon Our plan is to try.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It makes a lot of sense. So in the near term, it's the Fed. How much is the Fed going to really allow yields to go up? So far? It's been fairly tolerant. We think that continues, but we're not calling for yields to go crazy. So Mark prospective a really huge number of these something like 1 50 at midyear, For instance, Michael do you see in the economic literature in the monetary literature? Any discussion of the appropriate fiscal statistic? All of a sudden, with the changing of the guard were two trillion 2.2 trillion. Who knows where that number will be tomorrow? Michael. Is there a number within the economic zeitgeist where they say that's too much? Not really. This is really become more of a political discussion time. You've got to think about also how these economic models work. They're linked to Looking at past data and how much past data do we have on pandemics? Not a heck of a lot. So there's one point from a century ago doesn't really give you a lot of comfort, so there's really no particular number you can point to and say this is it What is your best bet? Right now, You know we're doing so much theory and the you know the cosmopolitan political economics right now of Washington as well. What is your delegated best bet. It. Wells Fargo. Well, we're of course, big fans of the Tom Keen's back. But when you get past that, yes, we do think he'll get picked up. Let's say he's just muttering to himself about his plans for this back. Carry on, Mike, you mister, but nonetheless. Yields go up, we say by calling 30 40 basis points. Maybe it's the outside 20 to 30 more reasonably over the next few months, called the next 4 to 5 months that seems like a pretty good plate of us. In the meantime, big driver of recent vets of yield rising was the weakening dollar and this is one of the big consensus bets. It's been cooling off a little bit. Some people closing at Morgan Stanley actually moving away completely in the near term from their weaker dollar call. Where do you weigh in on this? Do you see the dollar strengthening from here? As people take a look at the situation in Europe? They see the pandemic and how bad it's getting. And they say, maybe the U. S isn't so bad. We do see some strengthening least it's a good point. We look at the dollar and say, longer term Probably not great, but near term. How about a bear market rally? These things happen? Dollars really been beaten down pretty dramatically over the last 78 months. As you point out Europe's doing poorly from a covert perspective. Also with US heels going up, you've got yield spreads going up quite a bit, too. So the yield advantage for the U. S. Over let's say Germany, France. Certainly Japan is increased pretty dramatically over the last couple months. That should give the dollar at least the near term boost. What's the compass for this, Mike? I mean it might. Mark McCormack of TD Securities came on and said that he's tracking the vaccination schedules in different nations to determine which country too invested that there is a correlation. There are at least some sort of association between the strength of the economy, the strength of the currency and vaccinations. What are you tracking to determine whether a dollar falls or arises? It's not so much the vaccination progress, although it's a big component really day today, that's a difficult thing to measure. If you look at some of the data, Israel is way out front. Everyone else is not doing all that well. So You wouldn't really aim it That way. We'll focus on more concrete. Lee, I would say is one of the central bank's tell us. What we see in terms of market reaction in interest rates. And do we see bond market yields rising enough to give the dollar boots that really has been the big driver? We think over the last few weeks as far as sending a dollar up. Michael the dynamics of the emerging markets. We talked to Michael Purvis earlier about the Pacific Rim. Wells Fargo's always had an affinity to watch the Pacific Rim. His rarely been hatters there much more to go. Perhaps a bit more again. Here. It's I would say it's a function of how accommodate over the big Central banks. I know we talked about the Molokai. But when you think about activity in the pack friend that really is driven by U. S dollar trade, for the most part, so yes, the Fed stays of the very lax policy. We think that's probably a pretty good sign for that area. Like Schumacher of Wells Fargo. Thank you so much for being with us, and we talk about rates in the economy right now, Tom. We have about an hour about 50 minutes until the initial jobless claims report from the United States and Tom. One thing that we really don't stress enough is the ongoing by for case in the labor market. Layla Brainard of the federal served yesterday came out and said At the lowest kin tile of US earners. The unemployment rate there is more than 20%. That is compares with less than 5% for the top, gentile just talking about how this gap has widened out, and you just wonder what the longer term structural consequences of that this is really, really important to fronts Wanted Quintile folks is 1/5 of the public. It's not a death style. It's a real hunk of the public without 20%, right, Lisa, I'm so glad you brought it up because the week has been so nuts. I didn't realize it was Thursday. Insurgent. You bring up claims and, you know, we get another statistic. Whatever it's gonna be. I don't have it in front of me. But normal is 220,000. We're miles from its 787,000 years taking up with your will to go to fewer digits as well. Yeah, you know, I'm trying to work for my vacation in Capri is well, Tom, You're weighing on it, Mike from the Bahamas emails in and says Abramowitz is killing it. You might as well go to three, You know, taking a 787,436 You worse unfair of Hey. Is that a compliment? Thank you. I'll take it. I will say I do drink this. We've been football free this week. Yeah, I go with what we have to change that. I will say, you know, honestly, it is fair, though. You could have come back at me and said Michael McKee will say those numbers don't matter anyway, because there's so much noise, so there is a question of what the significance is of 787 or 786 nonetheless. Very big Tom, and that is a concern for a lot of people is so what I see which is so important is what I see in the streets, and I know every street of America's different, but there's some huge stress out there. Yeah. It's it's tough time. Coming up. Matthew O'Connor, Deutsche Bank, lead US bank analysts were talking about bank earnings coming out tomorrow will also be perhaps Talking football. Maybe this is Bloomberg. Now, with the latest news from New York City and around the world, hears Michael Barr, Lisa Tom, thank you very much. President Donald Trump was impeached by the U. S House on a single charge of incitement of insurrection for his role. In a riot by his supporters that left five dead and the Capitol ransacked..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael purvis" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Appreciated into 2021 was a gentleman from Blue Bay Asset Management, at least so I went to the Bloomberg terminal. I get a fancy moving average study. I'm not gonna go into the details, but I got you want appreciation over 8%. 8% is big figures from that above seven level down to 6.46. That is tangible. Yeah, And there's a question of one The PBOC Oh, when the people whose Bank of China will step in See this is a problem. So far, they've taken pretty tepid action, particularly because versus the euro. There's been some consistency with the U N but really notable. I gotta say, Tom really were watching that dollar weakness. They're watching on 80 xy Michael Purvis. I know it, tell back and was really quite good on that too strong. Asian index that we've seen recently Fishes of 17 Dow Futures of 1 44 Lisa Branches Bond market dead in the water. I mean, 440.93% in 10 Year Yield. I mean, it's really done nothing right well, and this actually, you asked a fantastic question earlier, I will say, Tom, I'm gonna start the year off well on you did with this question of whether stocks are increasingly a proxy for bonds. And it was really interesting is here, David Riley talk about how as long as yields remain low. How can you get out of tech stocks, right. I mean, that's gonna be the discussion. A Credit Suisse call I Noah's well, a huge point there of do tech or do not do tech. It'll be one of our themes through January, coming up. The themes of politics in the nation. Julie Norman joins from UCL Stay with us with futures of 18 on radio on television. This is Bloomberg. Now, with the latest news from New York City and around the world, hears Michael Barr, Liza Tom, Thank.
Bloomberg Surveillance
The alpha generating opportunity for the second half of 2020
"Of K P W as we enter the second half over this year, I think we have very little clarity, Visibility whatsoever. Government e Year and well this economy and the pandemic situation will look like from New York City this morning. Good morning to world alongside Tom Kay. Together with Lisa, Grab it some Jonathan Farrow, one hour, 12 minutes away from your opening about We roll over just a little bit. A mild move lover, down six points. The S and P 500 off by 2/10 of 1%. That's the equity market is the bond market for your Treasury yields have been lower. The curve has been flattered through much to the morning so far, your 10 year yield comes down to basics points. You're 30 year down almost three and a foreign exchange muted price. Actually, G 10 through much of this morning euro dollar Going absolutely nowhere. Poundsterling just a little bit weak. It's on the pound. Just a little bit lower. Well, interesting in the pound. Maybe Francine Lacqua, driving the pound weaker with her conversation with the chancellor of the exchequer earlier today, right now to have you reset for the second half of 2020 a guy who writes an incredibly interesting short research note. Michael Purvis is great because it six or seven or eight pages instead of the 30 pages a boilerplate that your eyes glaze over on. And in that he always tries to get out front of the trend. He did that to a tea with the Asia currency dynamics about 23 years ago. He is tall back and we're thrilled. Michael could join us this morning. Michael Purvis real simply. Where's the opportunity? Right now? What do you writing about is the truth. Alfa generating opportunity for the second half. You know, it's it's a tough question. Tough. I think for any of us, we were shifting. I would start by answering that question. If we were the first half was very fine area, you know, almost sort of wrist on wrist Call Allah 2010. The second half is going to be a much more nuanced sort of less binary set of analyses. And there's a lot of things that are just to come into the foreground. Just after we clear the Fourth of July holiday, which is all of that right around the corner. They're so I think the framework shift there, you know, in terms of how one position For the second half. I am looking, you know, opportunistically to sell volatility. I did that a couple of weeks ago when we had that big spike after the FOMC. There. You know, I'm looking at, you know, on my long equity portfolio toe have sort of a core ballast of what other people have. Which is you know the big cap tax, which is sort of an all weather type of Equity investment. It's almost a separate after classes to itself. There. I think the areas that are very interesting into the second half is looking at this potential sort of pivot where Europe, the European condition. Maybe moving into a into a more interesting place with stimulus slowly coming together and at the same time writing political risk in the United States. With a whole bunch of uncertainties. But what kind of policies were going to get out of D? C in 2021? There's no like I expect. I expect for the f B X, you know, to be most likely rangebound. I think it's gonna be hard to be a committed bear in the second half, but the same time it's gonna be hard to be That they committed bowl and then I think not too much that answer, But I would also suggest that look, you know it's it's arguably a consensus trade right now, but I've been Very constructive and precious metals for some time, and I continued to be so I think we're going to see a lot of pick up their particularly in the minors and silver. Well, Michael, that's basically a whole book. So let's pick out part of the story gets a Europe Do you think we could see re allowed performance on the continent? Well, I you know, Look, European equities have been the mother of all value traps for some time. We've all been there revolved and you know, sort of excited. You had a glimmer of hope in 2017 that lasts about 6 to 9 months. There. But I do think that there's something that investors have to keep their eye on here. Which is that there is, um you know, perhaps a bit as the catalyst has brought together. The new sense of European cohesion, and you're saying that with this with this very large 750 billion grow stimulus plan France, Germany over Anchoring there, and it seems like there's slowly getting old 26 countries on on board with it, but it's very important because it underscores declining. If it happens, it'll level harmonized. Interest rates across the eurozone. Um you know the spread of TB. The bones will come down and arguably, O'Neil should come higher as well. But at the same time, the political risk premium that's always exist in the euro should come down. I think I look, there's a lot Can happen between now and that you know whenever that might become a reality, but it represents a very, very important chefs in terms of training it, you know, it may be The long euro trait is the easier crazy and say my along the equities right now or or or the widow maker of sorting fun, but I think it's very, very important because over the long term mechanic tracked Very substantial capital flows that have been very US focus. Back into the eurozone, and that has implications that will ripple across. I think the whole the whole investment landscape. Again with the caveat gifted when it comes to happen, But there is a moment of building there that We had not seen before. Michael purpose
Bloomberg Surveillance
Recent developments surrounding the South China Sea
"Existing home sales that will be out at ten AM Wall Street time well to build a house. You've, got. A big Supply chain, and that supply chain is being disrupted by trade wars here to tell us, more is John Harrison. Managing director, for merging market macro strategy John Harrison thank you for being here for. From, t s lumbar how're, you doing this morning Very well thank you all right so, tell us. About your most recent look at supply chain risks particularly. As they affect emerging markets The way. Looking at. It in the context of the trade war between the US and, China Europe is is another matter But many of the country in south East Asia and north Asia Thailand, South Korea and so on Barrick's sports end up going. To China to, be to be re-exported to the US has really increasing compact complex global supply chains I means, they let's demand for, China's exports in United States and not, only fact in, the other Asian economies wet weather supply chain disrupted and exports fall, in, other countries. But not China If that's, the case when to US consumers see, these higher prices Yeah well rounded Tara Tita are really not. Much on consumer goods so US. Consumers are really happen you seeing some increases. Indirectly. At, the, moment The the next round of tariff which. Is due to be on the. Thirtieth of August after a period of consultation That Peres targeting consumer goods Habitable if they do go ahead as planned and the US consumers economic facing high prices Within this is the idea of informing politicians, you are expert, in really looked at actually how imports are done and exports are done whatever the nation what are the politicians most get wrong from the import expert dynamic from Shanghai or Hong Kong I think the effect on the US economy of implementing, the tariffs and, the complexity of the interactions between these various company companies country so it's not possible rage to Impose some On China without having any impact on on the US and the country, goes well the conversation last week with French hill from Little. Rock Arkansas the congressman from literally which is really. On this he was heated about the complexities to the Little Rock. Manufacturing community we spoke about this in terms, of Spartanburg, South Carolina where BMW has its. Largest, factory, well John if this is the case, for China what does this mean for countries such? As Brazil what are the? Political implications they've got an election coming up later, this year Yeah Resilient is still very uncertain situation buddy in terms of the trade? Wall Could be one of the few countries to benefit because That, prevailing often competing with the United States in agricultural products sleeping in particular China already has decided to import more soybeans from from Brazil another agricultural products from Brazil Up. Then that economy could benefit If that happens what happens to US farmers US, fav already facing lower prices I'm I'm sure that the the the bombers in US will be will be lobbying the the administration tried. To put a stop to this do you see global trade slowing now or is it something we're waiting for Things. The rate of, increase of year on year growth of trade, is is slowing Buddy's, still grow we haven't seen an actual contraction in world trade and I think we all still some way some way away from that but. Of course if we carry on down this Paul going then we will see Thank. You so much, John Harrison greatly appreciate it with tears Lombard, in England this morning You, just wonder where this is I don't have any wisdom at all. In the x axis the timeline of this because it's really is truly cliches uncharted. Territory but were there particular like this sub. Headline markets are complacent, on emerging market. Risks what we're seeing that feature that shirt today Good morning. Michael Purvis over it Weeden an x y Michael said eighteen months ago watch eighty. X y is the proxy and I'm sorry This is the bundled Pacific rim currency index extra pan. You take out the Janus -ness of Japan and some would say the Japan and it's like teach a class strong dollar week emerging market. And as a point that. I haven't even looked. At Filipino this morning PHP let me get that up here quickly to break through fifty. Four is a big deal we're not there yet, we are in a tight..
Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia
Sony Drops Most in Nearly Two Years on Cooling Smartphone Demand
"The eu and other nations and we'll have to wait and see they expire in less than six hours from now brian the bond market he said that the market can easily absorb more treasury supply us treasury borrowed four hundred eighty eight billion dollars last quarter that's the first quarter record more now on boring from bloomberg's at lisa parentally in washington the record borrowing was about forty seven billion dollars more than the treasury previously estimated the need to issue more treasuries is expected to grow as the fiscal picture deteriorates the budget deficit widened to six hundred billion dollars halfway through the fiscal year spending increased at three times the pace of revenue growth in the october to march period tax and spending measures approved by congress and president donald trump are expected to push the budget gap to eight hundred four billion dollars in the current fiscal year from six hundred sixty five billion in fiscal 2017 and the congressional budget office estimates it will surpass one trillion dollars by twenty twenty in washington i'm elise parental bloomberg daybreak asia and his brian mentioned earlier the japanese equity market will be up and running in about an hour and a half from now tokyo was closed for a holiday yesterday it's golden week there sony going to be a stock to watch in trading today the company's forecasting weaker sales and operating profits across most of its business unit for the coming year now sony is saying that sales of its playstation along with music movies mobile and home entertainment divisions are likely to decline in the year ending march twenty nineteen and briefly we had some earnings out from adds bank firsthalf cash profit two point eight eight billion australian the estimate three point five seven billion cash profit from continuing operations though was three point four nine billion well wall street kicked off a busy week on a down note more from bloomberg's charlie pellett in this wall street wrap stock benchmarks were pulled lower by technology and industrial shares with the s and p five hundred index finishing the final trading session of the month at session lows as for the earnings outlook michael purvis's chief global strategist at weeden and company going from a ten year treasury yield of two and a half up to three i do think has significant implications for the volatility surface it doesn't mean the snp can't rally this here but it does mean that the floor of the vicks.