35 Burst results for "Michael Mckee"
Elevated Jobless Claims Reflect Cooling Labor Market
"We get the latest reading on the pandemics economic impact, economists predict Initial jobless claims remained elevated at 870,000. We get more from Bloomberg economics correspondent Michael McKee. It's hard to give a lot of credence to the level of US jobless claims these days as states but Really California work to root out fraud and eliminate backlogs. But the direction is meaningful, and it's not good claims unexpectedly increased last week and now analystsforecast. They'll stay up the bad news for the labor market outlook underscored yesterday by Fed governor label Brainerd, who noted the pace of improvement is decelerating. And now we have more business closures as the coded pandemic surges again.
The Verdict on Trump's Economic Stewardship
"President Trump speaking to the economic of New York and various economic clubs across the country and we had questioning from Senate O'CONNELL of the Economic Club of Florida David Rudenstine of DC and Mike. O'Neill. The New York we have Michael McKee with us now our chief. Correspondent for all things economic both and. and Michael a very serious conversation here the president's putting out some ideas couple of inflammatory statements like how Joe Biden Presidency would be a socialist dream in American nightmare. But at the end, he was asked about things like infrastructure stimulus national debt did we hear anything new from the President? No, but we haven't been hearing much new from him throughout this campaign. It's he mostly talks about what happened in the previous three or four years and he talks a lot about, of course what happened to the Obama Administration? The questions he was asked about infrastructure spending he didn't answer. He said what he always says about many different things that he has a plan, but there's never any plan they were coming close to a deal on infrastructure at least Democrats in the House and the president when the President got upset with Nancy Pelosi and broke off the talks and that was two years ago and nothing's been done on infrastructure since. The House and Senate have a very big differences about how you would pay for infrastructure and how you'd structure the program. He said today the walls one of the biggest infrastructure projects ever. That's not true. He did shut down the border under the guise pandemic protection. So that part of what he said about the wall was correct he was asked about the deficit. and. Has Somebody. Else says quite often about this. This is one of those. Up his down down his up trump statements, he said the deficit was falling and we were GONNA pay off interest costs and start paying down principal on the deficit before the pandemic hit. That's one hundred percent one, hundred, eighty degrees opposite from what was happening deficit was rising significantly before the pandemic because of the tax cuts so. It's hard to know exactly what he was trying to do other than insult. Joe Biden and and stir up his base. Yes. Absolutely I think that's probably what we can expect from him. As we approach the elections three weeks left and we're going to get viewers questions. You know at some point tomorrow night's tonight and facts as we will be hearing a lot more from the president on economic matters and so on. But really nothing moves the needle. Until we get some more idea of what happens with stimulus and Ardley Nancy Pelosi doesn't look like. She's about to give in to to to president trump's requests or whatever republicans are requesting not that that's now well, even here's the thing we have to remember that even if the speaker of the House and the Secretary of the Treasury agree on some kind of deal, it would have to pass the Senate as well as the house. A number of house members have already suggested Dowse House Democrats have suggested they would vote against it because. They don't think it's big enough and. The question then becomes how many Republicans would vote for it if it's not considered big enough then in the Senate, you don't have fifty senators who approve of it. The Democrats are pretty united against it and half of the Republican senators say they don't want to spend anything. So at this point, there's a lot of focus on wall, street about the talks talks. In quotation marks between Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin. But the odds of something actually happening particularly before election day very, very small. Yes and for some reason and she wasn't quite care about yesterday when she was speaking with Wolf Blitzer Nancy Pelosi is not willing to even consider this one point eight, trillion dollar stimulus. What is it in their Michael? Can you decipher? that. She's so against she was actually quite angry with the to Democrats that said that they should be accepting this. The part of the play. A part of it is the way the money is distributed. Part of it is the amount of money for states and localities is not enough they believe and part of it obviously is politics. They don't WanNa give, Donald Trump. He kind of victory before the election you remember the last time when the cares act was passed in the twelve hundred dollars was going out for those who got it in check form trump held up distribution of the checks until he could have his name printed on it and last thing Nancy Pelosi wants is for voters to be opening their mail the day before the election and seeing Donald Trump giving them twelve hundred dollars. Yes that is to I'm sure and also presumably that machine is up and running now. So there may not be so much of a delay this time around but there is an argument to suggest that people need cash. Now, no matter how it comes in a matter who gets the credit right Michael Danny lower on earlier saying this country is in trouble there is particularly because more people are losing their jobs. Now, as we're finding more companies go out of business and. The airlines are a perfect example not going out of business, but laying off tens of thousands of people because they don't have any business to do at this point, and that was one of the hopes of the stimulus bills that they could get aid to the airlines in the short-term But nother interesting statistic came out from the New York Fed yesterday of the people who got the stimulus checks the first time around average of about twenty four, hundred dollars each seventy one percent either save the money or paid down debt. They have money in the bank and so if this. Rebound continued to go faster than expected. We might have a tailwind and we might need less of the stimulus checks I think the biggest difference now is that there are going to be people who. Didn't save. Don't have the money who are losing jobs permanently who may need something yeah. I found that phenomenal as well when you consider just how many people are at food banks in food lines as well who were once you know happily employed or all of the people around Orlando that are living motels because they'll also job at. Disney. For example. have to move every two weeks. Otherwise they risk you know Being, a problem for the Ho- The motel owner because after two weeks you can't you know get victim normally you have to go through the court process i. mean there are an array of stories out there about people suffering, Michael. What should we be concentrating on over the next couple of days? It's feels like Joe Biden needs to get more of an economic message out there. Actually, Biden probably needs to publicize it Joe Biden. If you look on their website has a very extensive economic plan that. Involves taxes infrastructure Various Pandemic Recovery ideas and Donald Trump and I'm not saying this to be part of Donald Trump has nothing. If you go to his website, there are literally no proposals for a second term and so it's kind of hard to know. what he would do and Biden perhaps wants to make that case a little bit more Donald Trump talked today about. Biden plans but if you notice it in his speech, he didn't say what he would do. He talked a lot about how bad the Biden and the Democrat tar and that's one of the problems people have suggested that we're seeing with trump's poll numbers is that at this point he is. Talking, about the previous four years and a lot of people didn't like what happened in the previous four years outside of the tax cut. and. He's not talking about what happens in the next four years or even in the next year and that makes it hard to make a case for your election. Yeah, it's a it's a phenomenal time and a lot of people pointing out now that if we don't get something before the election, it's going to be January. Before we're able to do more stimulus Michael thank you really appreciate your input and listening to that for us with Michael McKee. International airports, and policy. Correspondent.
Persistently High Unemployment Claims Point to Slowing Jobs Market
"And we get another reading on the economic fallout from the virus today, with a government releases data on weekly jobless claims. Hey, with Morris Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee. Jobless claims rose at the end of July, the first increase in 14 weeks. The surgeon covert cases during the months leading many businesses that had reopened to close again. And so while Economistsforecasts, a downward trend will resume, they still see claims in the same range well over a 1,000,000 Google search data for unemployment benefits, which provide a rough proxy showed searches increasing this week. Continuing claims, which have reported with a one week lag, also posted their first increased since late May. Both factors point to a weakening recovery in the labor market that may be reflected in Friday's July jobs. Report.
Fed Chairman Says Economy Faces 'New Challenges' from Virus
"Washington Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin weigh in on the economic toll from the pandemic when they deliver remarks to the House Financial Services Committee today. Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee reports. The Fed chairman will stress the importance of keeping the Corona virus contained as the U. S economy comes back. The rebound came perhaps sooner than expected, Paul says in his prepared remarks released last night by the Fed. While this bounce back in economic activity is welcome. It also presents new challenges, notably the need to keep the virus in check, he says. Howl and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will face questions from members of Congress on the disposition of the $2.7 trillion they've already appropriated. Has it saved jobs. How much has been lost to the Washington boogeyman of waste, fraud and abuse? Both are expected to argue the urgency of getting money out the door outweighs errors made And both are expected to tell Congress much more needs to be done to keep the
Futures extend declines after January jobs data
"And of course it is jobs day in the United States with non farm payrolls due out later in banks international economics and policy correspondent Michael McKee says that the jobs report will be seen in the context of US politics mother than the fed this time that puts an emphasis on earnings growth which slowed last month and hasn't shown the kind of strength a tight labor market should produce headline job growth will still matter and while gains overall have been slowing as workers become scarce this week's blowout eighty P. number two hundred ninety one thousand jobs created raises the possibility of a big number to start the year that would start a debate about how strong the economy can be through
Starbucks Shuts Stores, Apple Sees Disruptions: Virus Impact
"It is all Stephen will this morning in Hong Kong soon as the staff out to get him vegetables in the morning and he failed yeah you couldn't get vegetables in Hong Kong he just won the anecdotal things you see your family said in a monotone I've got members of the family over in China at the moment how they going day today what they do and their large their fancy there up a skyscraper and they're protected they live work from home and is it is a hormone my son's name is hormone over there is that what we on an afterthought progeny he said there's a lot of other people here that don't get to work on the cushion apartment you know thirty four floors although the sort of lack of foot traffic is heavy says you're in trouble business of fact and I'm really struck by the fact that Starbucks is closed more than two thousand outlets in China have you do that visitor arrivals mainly to have plunged seventy nine percent during this key holidays John I want to go to your observation on United Airlines what really struck me was British air taken what time line out to March in all this morning what's different is are now beginning to see timelines involved and United it just looking at the traffic looking of the bookings incitement to scale back a fast take bookings on that you've got the lights United B. I scanned them back to Lisa's point you've got stop us closing stores you've got Toyota holding production and operations in China until February ninth these are becoming much to output damage the consumption and then also the disruption to supply chains as well apple came out with the radio and the forecast for the coming quarter a white band because when the I'm not they do not know what things look like in China and I don't think anyone does yes CEO Tim cook saying that they're working on alternative sources for the components working a mitigation plans to make up for any expected production loss as they do expect this a coronavirus fought to continue features of twelve we welcome all the global wall street's two things you need to know guess what is John you mentioned it bonds and equities to couple this morning big difference you'll to lower down by two three by several and yet to one sixty three and let's be clear the moving bombs pre dates the corona virus scare the last couple of weeks this is been going since the start of the year you'll to lower your blood when your Slocum's flatter your distance between cities intends right now is just eighteen nineteen basis points and we just take the ten year a one sixty three that's below the fed funds right I guess one but that's on the right out of the federal reserve in the meeting today that's a great point I also want to say that we're seeing is bond you'll never say I agree I say it all the time Tom Kean this you have a great point you just made a great point data could today all right well I will just say this is that the air positive under the couch got that right all right well is that I'm looking right now oil prices actually up which is also non correlated to the bond yields going lower and I think one question is if the fed cuts rate will rates will that be enough given what it would take for them to make that move would that be enough to stay in the rally in and risk assets that we're seeing is Alan Ruskin was saying or not you two are going to be leaving the good life I'll be was scarlet fu doing the fed be it is not that good it's a snooze fest the fed meeting today is a snooze fest with with no hopes of success that's a success with this new system seriously what the new ones for Michael McKee in the press conference look I think the most powerful thing the fed is done in the last twelve months is not even the cuts is the shift to the reaction function effectively telling everyone that if things get worse will be there for you and if things get better we won't cap the upside and stuff hi can again the shift in the reaction function has been really really powerful point one point two there's gonna be a lot of attention on what happens with the bam she we're gonna catch up with the Dudley formally at the New York fed a little bit later on this program in the nine o'clock cat don't miss the conversation because there is a lot of confusion over the balance sheet operation at the fed and there are a lot of people in this market the fed would say mistakenly connecting the balance sheet operation to what was saying in risk assets there's also a feeling as Muhammad Ilarion was saying yesterday that the fed is running out of ammunition that they're sort of ability to continue to boost up both asset prices as well as fat I financial conditions is losing steam at this point and I know that in Davos there are a lot of discussions about potential coordination between fiscal policy makers and politicians which really enter some harassed her just a big distinction their ability to stimulate markets I think at the moment some question given what we've seen in the last twelve months their ability to stimulate economies I think that's why this might get
Investors Wait To Hear Federal Reserve decision On Interest Rate Cuts
"Nathan markets are quite this morning Karen as investors await word from the federal reserve the latest policy decision comes out at two PM Wall Street time and Michael McKee has a preview from a Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington the fed is forecast to deliver a third straight rate cut the question is whether that's the end of the easing cycle the fed's decision will come just hours after the latest GDP data are expected to show another slow down in the third quarter and just days before what's forecast to be a week payrolls report watch for a carefully crafted statement from German J. polities colleagues suggesting while policy is now accommodative they remain on guard against additional weakness and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion in Washington Michael McKee
Fed Jumps Into Market to Push Down Rates, a First Since the Financial Crisis
"Story dealers all bracing for another blast of cash from the fed today off it jumped into money market for the first time in over a decade more from Bloomberg start Christmas. early Tuesday morning a stunning jump in short term rates pointed to a scarcity of cash in the financial system the knock on effects at the fed's key fed funds rate to the operative it's targeted range a two and a quarter percent a move if unchecked could push a range of borrowing costs higher so the New York fed added liquidity by buying more than fifty three billion in securities and then like Tuesday the fed said it will do it again and conduct a second repo operation with as much as seventy five billion available I'm dead prisoner Bloomberg daybreak Europe now traders scrambled for clues as to what she calls the unexpected spike in the repo market but a senior Blackstone group executive says it's not a sign of a systemic problem that will affect the economy Tony James hopefully by that he believes the fed has the tools to solve these short term problems he doesn't see a ripple through to the economy the rates by close very scary but it's only overnight so that the actual cost of the system is not high as more of a concern to dealers is our technical it's a technical problem very short term that the defense addressing no tidy James added that he wasn't surprised that the fed stepped in to ensure stability will be well double line CEO Jeffrey complex as the spike in the repair rate may prompt the feds to expand its balance sheet he cools is a way of baby stepping to more clearly on the fed's repo operations come of course is policy makers meet to consider another cut to the fed funds rate Rubik's Michael McKee has that preview it's not so much what they do as what they plan to do next a twenty five basis point rate cut is baked into the decision but is that the last of eight mid cycle correction as chairman Jay Powell put it in July or do trade in geo political uncertainty mean more cuts are likely it's a communication challenge for Powell get it wrong and yields and the dollar may rise offsetting the fed's easy one more issue does the fed need to change its balance sheet strategy given the backup in repo rates this week. in Washington Michael McKee Bloomberg
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to give keynote speech
"All right after those minutes today showing the fed was prepared to act if the economy weakens the next week had like from the fed could come Friday that's when fed chair G. Powell delivers the keynote speech at a big fed symposium there and Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent Michael McKee is there already and he joins us now live so Mike how dovish was the fed news really I mean we had hints of big ready on Q. we and also the whole thing about being willing to overshoot the two percent inflation mandate well some people actually interpreted the minute the guessing that that might have been a little bit more hawkish than Wall Street had originally this decision because it does show there was a quite a bit of discussion about whether they should be cutting rates at all and some people didn't want to do that it could be people who hadn't voted so their opinions worked recorded by name the conditions though that that that used to justify it decision to cut rates in July are still in place we saw from the minute that they were talking about the trade war uncertainty about slowing growth overseas and about the the impact of the trade war with China all that is still happening so if they wanted to cut rates again in September presumably this is a road map for how they might do but it absolutely but I will give the market reaction Mike you seem to rather strange in fact it because it was almost as though they were looking for a reason today to find a book to find a reason to hold on to stocks and Babs Babs said by more you know there is the market reaction has been sort of unusual or disconnected from the data for some time now and it does seem that we get some immediate over reaction what direction or the other based on news these days and then we settle back into a pattern of markets hoping that we're going to see central bank actions not just from the U. S. that but from others and there then they rise again and that is probably what we're going to see in this case the initial headline attention with that you go on from there and the data company all right people get optimistic to get what other options do you think are all on the table does it seem like they're keeping you know mark Russell bond buying as potential next step it depends on which the debate you're talking about this is going to stick with cutting rates they basically said that that's their main policy instrument they don't want to go back Q. re unless they absolutely have to we're not anywhere close to recession right now so they don't have to look at the European central bank and there you have negative interest rates now that's hurting their financial system they could cut rates more probably will a little bit with their real tool is going to be quantitative easing more bond by and how they do that they have to figure out of the people who really can cut rates are the Chinese that they need to they have a lot of scope for movement so it's really kind of a question of where you are used to this point at Mike it come be easy for J. proud of being on the pressure all the time on a daily basis almost from your boss well technically he saw his boss so in that sense I suppose read a little bit easier but no it isn't fun to be a whipping boy for the president of the United States policy is very calm reason person and I think he knows that this is not personal and not really directed at him more of a straw man for the president to excuse the weakness in the economy how does he also has the support of all of the members of the open market committee everybody we speak to here is very strong it saying that they support a German style and they've got his back and like really quick about twenty seconds what do you think is the possibilities for the PPO see I mean they're going through this huge revamp of its benchmark interest rate but haven't seen a lot of stimulus aside from that well they wanted to try to do it through additional fiscal spending it doesn't appear to be working as well as they had hoped so it does bring the rate cut the plate because they're working with this great if they do reserve ratio cuts first before they move on to the main right and coming up here on bluebird daybreak Asia thank you so much Michael McKee for bringing best that from Jackson Hole will be covering more on trade in South Korea this is Bloomberg
Rising dollar knocks pound and euro
"Can use a single sentence you need to know I continue to think that cutting is not necessary in may prove to be a mistake as time goes by will speak to that strategist here in a moment Mr just a vote of alliance burns dean opposed to what we saw yesterday I love it the economist Francine request said she said it was a bizarre meeting and that really captured what John and I observed as Michael McKee was in the press conference yesterday the bazaar move John is dollars strange this morning is a key story yeah that is the continuation of the thing from yesterday the shock absorber in G. ten right now is the US dollar euro dollar breaking down to one ten one ten thirty three cable very briefly with one twenty handle one twenty one fifteen and there are now many watching your away from the brick city cable dynamic governor currently speaking now of the bank of England meeting Bloomberg surveillance this morning brunch but cone Resnick checkout business of baseball and original MLB video series exploring the business side of America's pastime visit Cohn Resnick dot com slash MLB corner as a kid visor re assurance tax and we think charisma is well Germany you bring in Gershon here with that fiery first sentence in his research we love having guests on the show let's bring in Goshen distance out alone spends thing co head of fixed income question just what me through your initial reaction to the last twenty four hours your morning jog your morning Tom that was a bizarre bizarre press conference I think I was on your show a couple weeks ago we talked about how you know maybe Alison how higher drugi to do his his press conferences because that guy's a maestro in terms of how we present thing so let it again in the house is not a very polished speaker he was he struggled big time yesterday that the government's messy speak to his intelligence but that he got to consideration but the thing the other two things are the fed is confused here it's just not clear why they're doing what they're doing and the the do you look at that against the backdrop of the longer term issues in the fed there's a lot of debate in the fed now about what is monetary policy supposed to be right does the Phillips curve even work anymore it certainly doesn't appear to work at least in the U. S. right how much are they willing to move in terms of overshooting in either direction how much they care about asset prices these are fundamental questions that haven't been answered so they're trying to make like a cyclical move within a secular confusion as to what they're really trying to accomplish over the long run thank goodness in a mid cycle adjustment what is a mid cycle adjustment made to you with the team at alliance burns thing right now well I had I we get you to think you know it when you look back at the school if all the noise in the market place you look back years from now and of those twenty five basis point either caught or hike really mean much in the real economy it's kind of around the area so it's more psychology than anything and you know it's it's we could see the think if they were going to call it it's going to end up being seventy five a hundred basis points something meaningful obviously not all at once but you know this this twenty five basis points were not for we're going to go I think it what's interesting is that everyone talk about now you know what's the data going to be starting of course with with payrolls tomorrow it's not just the data I think they're looking at it's also the flow of information and and the political scene what's going to happen on trade in the next couple of months what's gonna happen more globally globally political gonna happen the M. countries to go to insulation is one of the great doctrines it we've got the idea of goods disinflation maybe all right goods deflation and we've got service sectors the ability of a higher inflation are you in any kind of a camp that service sector inflation begins to diminish and come down towards the lower goods inflation well I think we're in we've been in a kind of secular change for for how the economy works for a long time that room because inflation and one could argue has been coming down for a very long time pending how you measure it and it's going into into service inflation I think inflation is a very hard thing to measure certainly the by the measures the fed is using it's not high enough and that could be a possible reason why they're trying to do this but again you know it if we don't expect to see major this of this this card is not going to change you know main street economy such that we're gonna see a big change in inflation why they do it is I'm struggling you know I think the best the best reason you can look at is if you look at kind of where the tips market has has really that were break even have gone there gone way down and check it yesterday but no one for the ritual of one point five on the ten year to pick back up to one point six one point seven break even rate and you know that's just that's below what they think the normal level is at a time when the economy is strong so if you think about it that way real rates were let's call it sixty seventy basis points and given how worried they are maybe they thought that was too high that's the best that desperation I can have the other the more cynical explanation as they're responding to the political winds and so you know they don't want to be seen as it I think the the I want to say that the fed ex central banks in general worldwide I think they have a lot more control over cycles but we actually do suggestion what does that mean for the yield curve right now because yesterday we saw some significant planning on Tuesday tens little bit of state Miceli this morning just how you guys position Goshen with that in mind at the moment yeah I think if you look at the you look at the totality of what happened yesterday equities lower the Kerr flatter as you site and the dollar much stronger that's exactly the opposite of what you want to cut rates actually tightening financial conditions so yeah what does it mean I I I I think it's a very hard to predict this in the short term I think investors continued the theme we've been talking about for awhile have to continue to expect lower returns across most asset classes going forward and the other I don't think this in itself changes much within the key is going to be not so much with a cut in September which I think clearly from the press coverage yesterday you have to conclude it's a coin flip because I'm not sure they know what they're going to do but or is this just a mid cycle kind of whatever that means of twenty five basis points or they're going to continue to cut we're gonna go closer to the old town of one to one and a half percent level wondering down Kirsten to a new terminal value a new terminal value for GDP for interest rates maybe the glide path of what the fed does where they have to bring it under two percent inflation target I mean is that really what all this job openings about well okay it's hard to say right consensus has been that rates are too low for a long time and it seems see begin now are saying yeah we're going to be in this apartment able to use one of our competitors for either the new normal wear just you gonna have loads ever heard that phrase me either I don't know that it I don't know how smart those people were but good morning but look at I think you know the we we're we're always so confident in in where we think markets are going to go now we think things in the low forever we really just don't know in the long term and you know it the it was it was less than a year ago less than a year ago we're sitting here how many times the figure the height the ten years on a four percent and now where the other way we should be a little bit humble yet activists the hunch your TV show just the other week it is the only industry where people can be wrong again and again and again and people still want to hear what they have to I remember some big name saying that once we cross three to sixty to sixty five on the ten year treasury that was it for the secular bull market guessing just a final question for you I hear on the grapevine the U. like loans at the moment can you just give me some clarity on that well hi I think that you know people investors bought loans for all the wrong reasons well they thought the yields are going to go up and we are we to bond how long do honestly outperform other forms of credit when when when rates go up and now that rates of man and no one expects rates to go up to a one to one point I mean floating rate debt anymore and that's also wrong in fact there's been some like thirty five straight weeks without flows from that the class that actually has on the way underperformed other parts of credit and there's some more value opportunities there so you know we're yeah we have more loan exposure in our broad funds and we've had in probably a decade this is an excellent person to say so thank you with this you can see him on the real yield it's important property of Bloomberg very soon afternoon maybe even called the real dollar maybe we need a foreign exchange program this week the way things are going good for the strength is well I want to go back to your one ten thirty eight it is really remote and we we've talked enough about it because of the brexit focus and sterling but nobody euro all one nine and your would be extraordinary just allows the last twelve months in the broken at this really tight trading range of in stock in it around one twelve between one twelve one of fourteen I would say for the most of this year Tom and now starting to break out and not with all the weakness with breaking out with all the strength and I don't know how many people were looking for that a month ago got into what they thought would pay anything cycle from the federal reserve shot of the David bloom he just we see in others that have talked of dollar stability in even a dollar strength I'm looking at the first strategist he hasn't tweeted on dollar yet this morning the wealth in Chile well he's he's open about his goods are doing something to Kentucky Senate comes today but we know the press got is still some foreign exchange I I can't imagine again when I look at their the simple D. X. Y. the mathematics of the Bloomberg D. X. Y. is excellent but the it's one ninety eight point eight four is a stronger U. S. dollar this is
How the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will affect Americans
"On the federal reserve a first rate cut in a decade bugs Michael McKee has the details a divided fed cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point and ended the reduction of its balance sheet now two months earlier than planned the rate cut to a range of two to two and a quarter percent comes the fed statement says in light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures as they did in June fed officials promised to continue monitoring economic developments and act as appropriate to sustain the expansion investors have taken that as a pledge to cut again and Powell didn't disabuse them he says however the fed isn't locked into a long rate cut cycle instead it's a mid cycle adjustment he says there's no prominent threat to the US
Fed Chair Powell Signals Rate Cut as Economic Risks Loom
"Good morning to everybody on Bloomberg television and radio worldwide I. Michael McKee bloomers international economics and policy correspondent in Victor at all at the rocky mountain economic summit with a very special guest Tom bark and he's the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond thank you for joining us today getting up early out here and joining us to be here you and I are kind of the warm up act for chairman Powell second day of testimony today so let's talk a little bit about that yesterday he went before the house of representatives and the markets took his comments as saying we are going to cut rates in July do the markets get the right impression well they're much more expert than I am on that I think he said the same thing yesterday that he's been saying for the last month and that we said in our last memo which is we don't have forward guidance anymore in the memo we're watching very carefully what's happening and data and we're looking very much on upside rescind downside risks and you know at this point they're a little more tilted to the downside which is why we're looking at well the market's basically priced in a hundred percent chance of a rate cut now can you go against the markets we have a lot of time left before the meeting we'll see what happens will have a lot of data that comes and CP I came in this morning and we'll get PC inflation we have retail sales will get consumer spending and markets are smart so if the data ends up with a different kind of outcome the market's sole I'm sure
How will the Fed respond to the May jobs report?
"Maze. Jobs report is due out this week and fed officials will be watching closely amid low inflation and political pressure to cut rates to discuss. This is Michael Mckee. Bloomberg international economics and policy, correspondent jobs have been looking too bad Montel now jobs have been part of a really healthy economy, so far. Two hundred sixty three thousand jobs created last month. Now, the forecast is for a significant decline to one hundred ninety thousand one hundred ninety thousand would have been considered a great report a few months ago. So at this point, it's still looks pretty good and the unemployment rate expected to stay at three point six percent. What about wage growth, though? Well wage growth was disappointing last month. If you consider a tenth of a percent, lower than forecast, disappointing, and we're expecting to make that up in the month of may. When we get the the report, but the year-over-year numbers. Is not going to change much three point. Two percent at still considered within the range of what the fed would like to see an expects to see when you have this low unemployment. It's just that it's not exceleron reading any faster. And that's kind of the confusion at the pet is why not we've been seeing more and more concern about the tariff wars, particularly with China. Is that going to affect things will show up in the judge of what we've already started to see it? We've started to see yield jobs go away. The steel industry has expanded in the United States, but largely through the use of automation. So while there was a ramp up in jobs in the beginning, it hasn't continued. And so we'll watch to see if that's the case we've seen jobs in appliance manufacturing drop the washing machine care that we saw last year this nonfarm payroll. So we won't get a real read on what's happened down on the farm because of the agriculture tears, but one can assume from some of the numbers we've seen arm bankrupt. That there may be fewer farmers out there as well. Yeah, we've heard lots of reports of distressing culture business. What about the fed? What are they going to be watching for all of these numbers in the jobs numbers? They keep an eye on the average hourly earnings. Because their main goal at this point is to keep track of inflation, and the theory is and low unemployment rate will raise wages and that will eventually feed through to higher prices companies make up for the loss margin when they have to pay workers more, but so far they've been able to absorb the pay increases and there hasn't been an uptick in inflation. Question is will there ever, be or has inflation dynamics change? Or is it just a late? And at some point we'll hit. That's what they're watching for. So what is it gonna take to get asking this question for years to get inflation burning? You know, before we get the jobs report, there's a big thank coverage in Chicago. Coming. Will be asking that question. What about the Fed's policies needs to change? Because the two percent inflation target hasn't been hit and over the last twenty years. A lot of people don't realize this, the inflation index that the fed falls has ever GE one point eight percent. And since they adopted the target in two thousand twelve it's average one point four percent. So is that still a realistic goal or can we live with lower inflation, that's going to be the question out there, because nobody really knows how to generate is that an an I think I can I think I can number or are we ever going to get to two percent? Well, it's one of those numbers that works in theory is we'll see higher inflation, and the fed will react once it gets above two percent for a little while. But the idea is that you create inflation expectations in the market, and that helps drive up inflation, and it hasn't happened and nobody quite knows why I asked you about terrorist earlier. How concerned is the fed about that. Well, they're keeping an eye on the Fed's last meeting was in March, and Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade war at the beginning of may. And so they haven't had a real chance to consider what will happen. There's always been a feeling out there in the market, certainly that a G. They this is just posturing. We will get an agreement in all. We'll be right with the world. And we've seen in the last week that maybe the markets are beginning to price in the possibility that all will not be right with the world. Trouble for the fed is, it's hard to measure what the impact is. Because you, you can guess it, how many jobs might be lost or how much GDP might be lost. But what's the impact of falling markets on spending, and on confidence? If the markets get scared that the China trade war is going to be damaging, so it's, it's, it's something they're keeping a close eye on. But they don't really know yet. The irony here is because of the tariffs, the president might get what he wants in. That is a rate cut. Well, it would take some. Some time for that to happen. The fed is content to sit on the sidelines. They're not going to be bullied by the markets. They sort of went on hold after the December ructions in the markets. But their view is the data would have told us to do that anyway. And so at this point, they're going to stay on hold as long as they can. Unless we see a significant dive in inflation that sustained over a couple of months they're going to stay on hold a nut cut rates because there's still the possibility that trade war ends. And there is the possibility that we see inflation at least maintained if not rise. So they don't see an urgency
Pressure On China To Agree To Trade Deal
"Radio. Even though we have a lot of liquidity offline from may happy made if you are taking today off there still some selected assets that are trading and some important events to look ahead to US equity futures advancing then he had apples upbeat forecasts. Traders expecting lower volumes throughout the day. Then bit of movement coming through in terms of US equity futures higher. You've got a bit of movement on the ASX two hundred straight up about eight tenths of one percent. Other than that. It's pretty quiet on the equity side in terms of the handover overnight. We did have course, they Tekere innings more generally with apple but also a little bit of a well, it was a weight on the shoulders from Google corporate earnings and develop the trade conflict between the US and China remain front and center, that's for sure I mean, running through some of the currency pairs here. You're looking here the Bloomberg dollar index. That's just barely about the flat line here quiet on the Major's front. So I mean, pretty much all of these pairs unchanged. Eurodollar one twelve twenty Donnie in one hundred and eleven fifty and cable is up less than a tenth of one percent. Short of one thirty fifty five commodities are on the pressure a little bit. Brent crude Coney down six tenths of one percent. We have higher inventories out of the US and the initial data overnight. Gold is lower by three tenths of one percent. So the metals on the pressure let me run through some of the news as well. In terms of the corporate earnings because we are getting of course, quite a few fast and furious start off with Sainsbury's fiscal year revenue at twenty nine point zero one billion pounds. You're looking here at fiscal year sales of thirty two point four one billion pounds to final dividend. Shares going to be seven point nine Pence. Few notes on guidance year Sainsbury saying the consumer outlook continues to be uncertain and that they are well-placed to navigate the external environment. So that's on the Sainsbury's front more retail input from next currently first quarter retail sales coming through a negative three point six percent. The market was looking for actually more of a contraction here down six point two one percents of slightly better than some of the analysts had pencilled in. I go to online sales eleven point eight percents the estimate heroes for twelve point eight percent. And so a little bit of a little bit better on the retail sales. But a little bit short of estimates on the online sales on guidance. They're still seeing fiscal year pre-tax at seven hundred and fifty million pounds and still see full price sales at up one point seven percent. And then also on the economic front. We've got some UK April house prices. They're up zero point four percent on the month. That's the nationwide. Up zero point nine percent on the years that is some economic input as well. So that's a bit of a flavor then on what's happening with these corporate earnings. Let's get now to some of the stories we're watching very carefully starting off with what's happening with the United States and China. The White House is ramping up pressure on China to reach a trade deal in the next two weeks. Bloomberg daybreak Asia anchor Bryan Curtis has more from Hong Kong, the US said once again, he would walk away from the talks if no deal, Mick Mulvaney, President Trump's acting chief of staff said negotiations would not go on forever. So the administration is making its impatience known a slight shift from the earlier more optimistic messaging still going into talks today. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US side had a nice working dinner last night with vice-president Leo hub, two of the quick notes. The F T says the US is likely to accept a watered-down commitment from China on security that to speed up a deal and. And Chinese regulators said today, both Chinese and foreign banks will no longer be subject to ownership caps on local banks Kong, Bryan Curtis. Bloomberg daybreak Europe. That means on world financial markets away. Today's Federal Reserve announcement on the US interest rates. Bloomberg's Michael Mckee has a preview. This fed meeting is widely expected to be a nun event except for that little possibility of a rate cut. No, not a policy cut to the fence target. But an adjustment to the rate of interest. The central Bank pays banks on excess reserves the effective federal funds rate traded a record five basis points above the excess reserves rate Tuesday most traders blamed technical rather than policy issues such as a rise in repo rates on other securities that suggests the fed doesn't need to do anything others note, though, it's been an ongoing problem and forecast a slight cut in the rake in Washington, Michael Mckee, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. And as the central Bank meant to weigh monetary policy. Donald Trump sought to pressure the fed to make drastic moves to boost and already healthy US economy in a pair of tweets Tuesday. Trump criticized the fed for having incessantly lifted interest rates and wonderfully low inflation Colfer steep interest rate cut and the resumption of bond purchases as well. The thing with the theme. The president's comments came as another political drama swirled around the central Bank on Capitol Hill Trump's plan nomination. He recalls Stephen Moore to the fed sports looks increasingly uncertain as a third Republican Senator voices downs. The story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. A key ally of the president told reporters that Moore would be quote, a very problematic nomination, though, he has not made up his mind. Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa and Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama on Monday voice. Their own concerns about more a Heritage Foundation fellow and a former Trump campaign adviser Ernst the senate's fourth ranking Republican told reporters, quote, I am not enthused about what he has said in various articles later, Monday Shelby. The former chairman of the banking committee said he thought the proposed nomination, quote has some problems Charlie Pellett. Bloomberg daybreak Europe. That's something singing. Singapore where Mark Cranfield and markets live team joins us, Mark. Let's start off with the mlive question of the day. The fed odds in terms of the likelihood of a move very contradictory and not really in line with what we're seeing the job market. Yes. Good morning, certainly the market by some as strong as it's been since the nineteen sixties in the United States pretty healthy condition. We've also saying some pretty good wage growth as well. Even though it hasn't really fit injuring flation too much. So Fava certainly in the GDP data from Las week, as well already know the picture is pretty healthy economy. We go to started go to the payrolls not becoming up on Friday, and the fed will certainly be thinking about this as well because it probably reinforce this very strong picture of job market. So when you have that in the background certainly makes a bit curious as to why the mock is getting so excited about the polls. Not of the fed may take the opportunity to to try and rain the market back in a little bit and try and get them back more to a neutral territory because of that. Let's talk about the greenback. It's climbed against all but three of its group ten currency peers and twenty nineteen to folks at TD North America point out that any further strengthening any wheat test of some of those twenty eighteen is could mean trouble for stocks can be trouble for high your credit and currencies as well. More. Generally. You're seeing that dollar bears can return to hibernation after the FOMC run me through your thinking. Yeah. So we had a little bit of softness in the dollar towards the individual pro, and that's not unusual this month and maneuvering which goes on. And it's quite often the case where people are just have to tidy things up in the came off a little, but the fundamental case for is is pretty hard to ignore right now, particularly against the emerging market currencies. You've got short term rates in America, which are very high in comparison to other g ten currencies relatively high compared to the emerging market world. Plus as we were saying this pretty strong background of data from the United States. And they made it very. Clear it's on a long-term polls here. So he's not really going to be going anywhere. We've monetary policy at the same time. There's other countries that want to lower interest rates in in Asia. We've had India of moved already we've got to Malaysia looking at it, South Korea looking at it Philippines, Indonesia, they're all heading towards lower rates environment. So that certainly from an investor's point to you. They're probably thinking that the fed is beginning to look like a high yield currency here. So we could save it. If a rebound once the fed is out the way people start looking ahead to Friday's jobs report. It's always a pleasure catching up. Thank you for stopping buying. It's Mark Cranfield. Remember the for real time market commentary and analysis to markets. Lifelock. That's the only Bloomberg terminal. Let's get into some of the corporate news because apple their their numbers of projected quarterly sales top analysts estimates more from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. The reports suggest demand for iphones stabilized after a disappointing holiday period. The company also reported solid revenue. Growth from its services business as consumer sign up for a growing Schwartz board of digital subscriptions. Apple shares have surged more than forty percent from twenty one month low in early January after lacklustre iphone sales prompted the company to cut its holiday revenue forecast. So far this year. Apple is up twenty seven point two percent in New York. Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg daybreak Europe and do better as demand for all. The shares offered in its IPO just one day after kicked off throat show in London. That's according to people familiar with the matter, the ride hailing company will continue meeting potential buyers in New York and San Francisco as it seeks to raise as much as nine billion dollars right time now for the latest elsewhere in the world with Bloomberg's leeann guarantee, man. Good morning Yussef Kwun guidos gamble to take control. Venezuela appears to have flops the position need publicly called on the armed forces toback his attempts to oust nNcholas Maduro, but the military command. And state loyal to the president the US reiterated its support for quite, but it seems to have little effect. Japan has seen the first voluntary handy of the chrysanthemum throne in more than two hundred gays. Bloomberg's Crisan STI has this report from Tokyo Japan. Welcome to new emperor on Wednesday with hito acceding to the throne in a ceremony attended only by males symbolic, Hugh leader ushers in a new era Ray, or beautiful harmony, one of the emperor's first major tasks will be to entertain US President Donald Trump who arrives later this month for state visit interfere Chris Asti, Bloomberg daybreak. You're in the UK. There's around with a neighbor vets policy on another e referendum some of the party's MP's won't want an Olsen Kim stances, while others would prefer a better Brexit deal general election yesterday, the ponies governing buddy agreed to stick to its policy of simply keeping the option of another poll on the table it disappointed labor backbencher Mary Cray danger. We're trying to ride. To wholesalers on nicest. Theresa May has demonstrated over the last two years is that you end up leasing date. The country is looking to the labor party for leadership. They're looking to labour leader for leadership, and this may French police carrying out full, potentially violent protests across the country. Bloomberg's Caroline Conan reports for the first time the universe will join climate activists any traditional union marches, but as many as fifteen hundred black blocks anarchists are also expected in Paris. French president mccone came up with a new wave of reforms last tweak. The two-thirds of the French said they were not convinced in Paris, counting Kernen, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. Cable news twenty four hours a day on air take takes on Twitter,.
Steady Fed sees no more hikes in 2019
"So lot of central Bank news coming through today. Of course, the fed front and center and fed chairman Jerome Powell said interest rates could be on hold for some time. That's after officials slash their projected interest rate increases this year two zero from two with more. Bloomberg's Mike Mckee reports from Washington the pause continues with no change in the feds target rate. But if you believe the dot plot policymakers think they're done for the year. The median dot now calls for no rate hikes this year, just one next year. The fed will also begin tapering its balance sheet runoff in may reducing the cap on monthly redemptions. Fifteen billion dollars. They'll stop altogether at the end of September with about three and a half trillion on the books in Washington. Michael Mckee, Bloomberg daybreak Europe. It was taken really dovish Lee. Certainly by the bond market. Interestingly we saw Kerr flattening on the twos. Tens was steeply up a little bit today and the chances in the market of a rate cut this year have increased as well off the back of that meeting. So really to me all the fed did was actually bring the dot plot to where the markets were already pricing. But then immediately the bond market starts asking for more on the flip side. We didn't quite get the rally inequities, you might have expected from a dovish no perhaps some concerns regarding growth going forward as the Federal Reserve also downgraded its growth forecasts for two thousand nine hundred ninety two point one percent is what it's now predicting for
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Much Michael Mckee that is our own Michael Mckee, speaking with New York fed president John Williams and everything from inflation to emerging markets to trade him, a wide ranging interview that really reflects this belief that the Federal Reserve is on a steady course of interest rate hikes does not seem to appear that believes that inflation is about to pick up dramatically, but that things. Also SIMS go, nor are the issues of trade and tariffs having an immediate effect. John Williams saying that they don't have a major factor. They don't factor into any kind of influence in the US economy in terms of jobs and inflation, at least at the moment, and that the no clear signs of upward pressure for inflation. You know, it's interesting as he was speaking. I was thinking that Federal Reserve members have actually been vindicated tremendously about the yield curve because a lot of us have been sort of harping on this point of a flattening yield curve, and fed members have said it doesn't concern us. We see positive signs in the economy now, it's actually starting to steep, and you're actually starting to see longer term yields rise more than shorter term yells. So it kind of gives them even more room to go ahead and raise rates. Yes. And I think the quote was he sees a pretty strong run for the US economy expects US GDP growth at or above three percent this year and above at two and a half percent. Next year. So not seeing any signs of recession. Definitely definitely seeing seeing strength. All right now. Let's check on what markets are doing right now. Let's go to Greg Jarett in the Bloomberg newsroom..
Report: Global trade war would hurt US the most
"Com. Bob. The Federal Reserve is set to boost interest rates for the third time. This year, the central Bank releases its decision policy statement and projections at two PM Wall Street time Michael Mckee has details from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington. The Fed's policy decision is assumed and priced in a twenty five basis point increase to a range of two to two and a quarter percent. So for investors. The question is what does the central bankers? Tell us about their next move. Richard Clarita joins the vote as vice-chairman will his forecast move the dot plot. Suggesting more support for a fourth rate move in December or by lower terminal rate. Do fed officials think they're close enough to stopping to drop their
U.S. job growth seen picking up, unemployment rate falling
"Candidate needs to reach a deal with the US by October first in order to join an agreement the US has already signed with Mexico. Now, let's talk more about the markets and cross over to Singapore. Where Mark cut more from the markets live team joins us. Mark great to have you with us a good day to you. So let's start with the prospect of a ramping up in the trade war weighing over markets. I'm wondering how much of that ease actually playing into the Asian equities session. Because one thing we should note is that when you look at the emerging markets index three quarters of that is Asian benchmark. So if anything it could be the Asian equities are just being swept up in the EM equity selloff.
U.S. second-quarter GDP growth revised up to 4.2 percent
"Good morning yes revised GDP data, from Washington, topping forecast second quarter now four point two percent annual growth rate. The, prior estimate four point one percent this four point two, percent more than forecast personal consumption consumer spending. Up, three point eight percent inflation. Gauge is little changed from the. Prior reading, three, percent two percent on the. GDP price index and core quarter over quarter, again GDP revised figures from the. Government topping forecast four point two percent edit Annual rate and higher than the. Initial estimate footnote from the Bloomberg based on the ten year moving average though GDP shows the economy has net, fully, bounced back from the financial, crisis the average still below two. Percent and before. You break up the, grape me hi. This, lags, the past.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Faster pace and with more here's Bloomberg's. Michael Mckee the fed chairman is saying that basically they're going to stay on the same path which according, to the minutes would call for a December rate increase after September all the odds are lower their data dependent on that but he doesn't suggest that. They're going to be anything they're gonna deviate at all from that as for the US. Economic outlook Stephen In Stanley is chief. Economist at, Amherst Pierpont securities the over arching theme for the fed terms of economies that the economy the US economy is strong and trade and emerging markets and. All the rest present potential downside risks which is the way that it was termed in the minutes but you know the base case is still for very strong economy for the near term and. Beyond Jackson Hole investors are also keeping an eye on. Trade talks and tariffs Laurie Calva senile is head of US equity strategy, at arby's see capital markets well, I, think it's. Definitely something. That's restraining enthusiasm bet I wouldn't say obviously it's not, pushing markets down that, people are watching. This out of the side of their I and it's it's it's unsettling well the s&p NASDAQ both end, the week. At records SNP up seventeen up six tenths of one percent NASDAQ up sixty seven up nine tenths of one percent the Dow up one hundred thirty three up, five tenths of one percent global news twenty four hours, a day on air and talk on Twitter power by. More than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred. Twenty Countries I'm Charlie Pellett this is Bloomberg You're listening. To Bloomberg best. On Bloomberg radio June Grosso and. I'm Ed Baxter still to come this hour the head of the world's largest shipping company warns that.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The recommendation is a boost for disney's prospects for closing the deal as it competes with comcast and that is your bloomberg business flash christine thank you very much the delphi fed president patrick hawker says he's not concerned with inflation running about two percent he spoke to bloomberg's michael mckee the rocky mountain economic summits in idaho voice said is that the target is symmetric targeted symmetric moving to say to five and sort of staying there i would be comfortable with i can't say because again i think it's a question of acceleration as opposed to the change in inflation as opposed to you overall number so if we're celebrating past to five and i do think we have an issue well harker also weighed in on that interest rate path in the beginning i three for this year three for next year off of that although i am open to a fourth increase this year inflation started to accelerate james reeve is the chief economist at samba financial group and he's still with tracy on myself so there you go this is contract harker signed in is if i think signing is they're building up an era of where we're prepared to run it a little bit hotter down our free disasters hawkers voices one of those saying look i'd be happy to let it run to what does that mean what does that mean for policy does that mean for hikes does it mean last does it mean more next year what are you what are you record i think it means fewer this year we still think there'll be anyone additional height this year the reason we think that is because of the increasing participation rate which is basically keeping the labor market cooler than it would be right and i also think that the inverted year well the nearly inverted yield curve is a big issue for for with policymakers now because an inverted yield curve is a harbinger of of recession and so they don't wanna raise rates of the short and unless they absolutely have to so he's saying well let's see let's have a little bit margin of of of overreach let's see how we go we have this symmetrical yes percents so we can go to point two two point three or one point seven whatever.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"There's a special place in hell for any foreign leader that engages in bad faith diplomacy with president donald j trump and then tries to stab him in the back on the way out the door and that's what bad faith justin trudeau did that stunt press conference the canadian dollar is can against all its major peers following the us criticism at the g seven summit it's a big week for central banks with policy decisions from the federal reserve the european central bank and bank of japan bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee reports the us federal reserve is on track to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on wednesday to the highest since two thousand eight for traders however the european central bank could steal the feds thunder a day later mario draghi may announce the end of europe qe bond buying thursday reinvestment will continue but an end date for new purchases should send market rates higher it would raise the question of when the ecb would raise its benchmark and when its balance sheet would begin to shrink tightening isn't on the agenda yet for the b o j disappointing inflation data has made it clear that the bank of japan remains a long way from its two percent target michael mckee bloomberg daybreak thanks mike one other fed note for you this morning according to a bloomberg survey of accountability of the federal reserve won't speed up the path of interest rate increases as the face of accelerated us growth to more increases this here including this week which matches the feds own projections back in march while investors will be watching the central bank decisions and the us north korea summit they will also be looking at a crucial week for brexit's let's go live to london and get the very latest from bloomberg sebastian sally good morning good morning bob and john.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And futures this morning are also lower dow futures are down one hundred fifty four points s and p futures down seventeen and nasdaq futures down ninety six bob finance ministers and central bankers from the group of twenty nations meet in blended aires today bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee is there treasury secretary mnuchin will get a chilly reception here in wayne iris president trump steel and aluminum tariffs are very unpopular with the other members of the g twenty bloomberg obtained a draft of the ministers communique it notes countries turning inward is the biggest threat to global growth treasury officials hope they can turn the focus of the meeting to china's trade practices which they say is the real motivation for the tariffs they say global cooperation is needed to change chinese behavior while many here agree it's a goal perhaps made more difficult by the steel tariffs and trump is on the verge of star getting a trade war in desirous michael mckee bloomberg daybreak and one us official is already making waves and aaron strategy under secretary for international affairs david malpass said at a conference yesterday that the us has ended a formal economic dialogue which it quickly walked back back comments saying he had misspoke which in turn led to some confusion on the status of dialogue between the us and china he sat down with us yesterday to clarify his remarks shifted to trying to have direct dialogue with senior chinese leaders on on these concerns the there's a lack of reciprocity in the relationship on both trade in goods and services and in the investment relationship that makes for imbalances that need to be discussed really at the highest levels of the government secretary mnuchin has been very involved in senior dialogue with china on how do we get their policies back on track in a way that would interact with the world in a more market oriented where treasury move quickly to correct the record after the initial comments from david malpass saying comprehensive are comprehensive talks with china have not been discontinued and in china the national people's congress approved ye gung as the new governor of the central bank bloomberg daybreak asia anchor bryan curtis has details from hong kong the selection of you suggest continuity at.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Worked in january a rebound just mathematically will hold down february wage gains don't expect a big drop though statistic cork's should provide support as would tight labor markets getting even tighter forecasts are for unemployment to fall to a fresh seventeen year low that would keep the fed on track to raise rates later this month in washington michael mckee bloomberg daybreak europe now you can't fficials don't expect to clinch a breads d by the end of this year and privately think that january is the real deadline to get an accord in time for exit day that's according to people who have knowledge of the matter and the familiar with the negotiations european union chief negociator michel barnier has long said he wants the withdrawal agreement done and dusted by toburk of this year so that there's time to go to the european parliament and the uk houses of parliament is what for approval the brags it sancutary david davis as indicated in public at least that the timetable could slit all right yes may be some realism creeping in here when it comes to the potential the brexit deal let's face it that deadline that to negotiate his set out for october always looked quite ambitious seeing all of the level of complication that we're dealing with hand let's face it more news now from around the world his loobox sandra can often your sticking to the european politics theme starting a german yes good morning mike has for social democrats well at nine am uk time announce which cabinet posts they're taking angloma makul's government then begs big again yan'an says the new finance minister isn't likely to change things up all obstacles the mayor of hamburg is set to be germany's new finance minister he's a proeuropean his pragmatic and committed to sound finances so he has a lot in common with chancellor angela merkel a uturn in europe is not on the agenda in villain it can handle book daybreak europe meanwhile french president amano michael heads to india today four three day visit bloomberg's and.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The bloomberg radio business flash now let's get back over to sandra kill off from warren was going on around the world cetera good morning not south african president jacob zuma is due to brief the media today according to the anc and several media reports it comes after the ruling party decided yesterday that its need elected leader silva mahfuza will replace him as prime president but set no timeframe for the transition of power businesses in the czech republic are warning that a debate on a new referendum little could trigger a vote on a brags it stall departure from the eu that would devastate the economy this comes after prime minister bobby she has arnaud party held talks last week with a farright leader whose openly calling to leave the world's largest trading bloc while bobby says he doesn't want to law to allow votes on eu and nato membership he has sought support from antiestablishment parties to back his minority government and amid growing support for president otto one investors are now concerned that the turkish leader will seek to capitalize by calling an early election that something odd ones party has never done during its fifteen years in power and officials insist the no plans to go to the polls before the sketch khaled date in november 2019 global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries i'm sandra kilholf this is bloomberg guy beat zone i'm guessing word of the day for our colleagues over the united states is going to be inflation the bloomberg daybreak team out of new york a getting ready good morning bob moon and you hit that right on the head guy wall street awaits the most closely watched inflation report in recent memory bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee we'll have a preview were still tracking market moves he was futures follow equities in europe and asia higher as the yen hits a fifteen month.
"michael mckee" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"Foreign markets thank you very much michael mckee bloomberg economic senator joining us from montreal site of the negotiations or renegotiations for nafta and earlier in the in this during the week of the us trade representative robert light haiser held nafta talks at at the davos world economic forum with canadian foreign minister christie of free ling let's go now to davos where my colleague and cohost tom keene has a special guest tom fox thank you so much uh so uh miss minister freedland yesterday of course she is actively in touch with mitral swelled good morning everyone good morning pimm fox it is the most interesting davos and you you look at the market futures up eleven dow futures up 77 and you can't but notice further dollar weakness we had dollar weakness than dollar strength of the president's comments and dollar weakness again those are market actions it would be a better that good time to speak to the laureate robert schiller of yale university we speak to him off and he's been wonderful in his support of what works surveillance and i wanna go professor schiller back to a book with an possibly young robert show or other covered the new financial order risk in the twentyfirst century at book was thirteen big years ago what you get one is we says it here in this in the twentyfirst century what has been your worse your your biggest shock i should say well i hadn't ranked them i'm thinking that the uh re the repeated that when i wrote that in two thousand three that was before the financial crisis yes we had the biggest financial crisis since the great depression uh and.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg now when it comes to our other top stories today we're gonna kick it off with donaldson the world economic forum us president donald trump arrives of the conference today joining a large delegation of us officials already there where he is expected to boast about us economic performance during his first year in office bloomberg's michael mckay has the full preview the white house surprised the world where did it out donald trump would be going to davos search normally thought of as the annual get together of the establishment elite he so vigorously campaigned against white house officials say he'll vigorously defend his america first first philosophy tout tax reform and take credit for a strong us economy his appearance will be in stark contrast to last year's strong defence of free trade by china's xi jinping and while trump won't be the first sitting american president to attend bill clinton went in two thousand he will no doubt dominate the proceedings in new york michael mckee bloomberg daybreak europe now the us president will be in davos for less than thirty six hours and in addition to the speech and hauled nothing with business leaders he will meet with several foreign leaders including british prime minister theresa may on a break from brexit may has her own agenda for the conference with more bloomberg's flabby across a jackson british prime minister theresa may takes a crusade against technology giant to davos quote no one wants to be known as the terrorists platform or the first choice at for paedophiles these are these words maize expected to say ahead of his speech thursday at the world economic forum technology companies still need to go further and stepping up the responsibilities for dealing with.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Russell leonard baxter continues you're listening to the bloomberg best on bloomberg radio i'm jim godsell and i'm ed baxter james billard says that president trump's one point five trillion dollar tax overhaul may spur investment and us economic growth but he's not sure if it will warrant higher interest rates amid low inflation the st louis fed president spoke with bloomberg's michael mckee from the eighty eight meeting in philadelphia word resortlike keeping our eyes open on this but i think on the tax cut issue the um i you know i'm very much less of a person that things that a lot of deficit spending you know has a lotta impact on the economy or if it does this usually temporary so i think the interesting part about the tax cut is whether it will drive productivity higher and the us drive business investment higher in the us and if it does i think we could get some gains out of that because that would move up the trend growth rate for the us economy so that would be good if we can get that but i feel like for now we can be waiting sees as far as monetary policymakers on that and also in the in the train growth world a couple of tents on the trend growth rate is a big deal but in the world of watching gdp from quarter to quarter couple attempts doesn't really register so um so i think it'll be hard to disentangle over the next couple of years whether you're getting a couple tents on the trend growth rate or not and if you are that would be important but it'll be it'll be hard to disentangle at from the data so you're still locked into the same regime and no rate where we we've got the lower regime but you know certain keep an eye open uh i think my baseline cases that were still in the same regime i i think there's some possibility that this could lighter fire under investment and really drive growth higher and if that.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And i ryan courtesy in hong kong let's get you caught up on this hour stop business stories and the market while stocks in asia started off the month on a positive note today there trading near alltime highs american consumer confidence data strengthen optimism in the growth outlook and investors have shrugged off the latest turmoil in washington and there was plenty of economic data to review the thai sheen china manufacturing pmi came in at fifty one point 04 october and that met expectations south korea's october exports rose seven point one percent year on year that was less than half of the estimate of fifteen point six percent but still deemed quite positive for the economy and imports were up seven point four percent and the estimate was for fourteen point eight percent sony is prospering again shares rose ten percent this morning to their highest level since two thousand an aid after the company increased annual operating profit outlook who will record five point six billion dollars while the fed kicking off a twoday policy meeting in washington today more from bloomberg's michael mckee it has to be a rather awkward meeting with many news outlets reporting janet yellen is about to be replaced as fed chair by someone sitting at the same table today fed governor jay powell not that it will make any policy difference powell has voted with the chair since joining the fed in two thousand twelve is voted everyone else is on the policy committee is expected to be for nochangeinrates nor are the central bankers forecast to make major changes to their statement wall street is betting they will make as little news as possible ahead of an expected fed chair announcement michael the key reporting let's get a check of some of these buoyant gains that i mentioned the nikkei up three hundred forty points a gain of one point six percent the hang seng index is peron gains of six tenths of a percent and the shanghai composite is up about a half of 1 percent global news 24 hours a day powered by our twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in a uttered and twenty countries from hong kong i'm brian curtis this is bloomberg this is currently rose on bloomberg radio.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To sign by christmas hopefully before christmas yellow v in the room standing front row so the president commented today at a meeting with business interest groups including the chamber of commerce and the business roundtable he wants to cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from the current thirty five percent meantime house ways and means committee chairman kevin brady says he doesn't plan to cut pretax contributions to four roland k's unless investment advisers say that it would lead workers to save more house tax riders planned to release a bill in washington tomorrow rish row bitcoin surging today to a new record high we're talking about six thousand four hundred and two bucks for each one of them is up to cme group reverse schools and said it plans to introduced bitcoin futures by the end of the big give me the rousseau schools that uh part of a bigger trend which legitimises the cryptocurrency earlier this year saying that it also exploring the river it is they feel to see gave writer x cryptocurrency trading platform approval to trade they claim that obviously this really adds to this in the sector and a kind of consolidate set a functioning derivatives market would help traders hedge positions in the digital currency and of course it would help traders and investors bet on bitcoin's volatility without actually owning it well the fed kicking off a two day policy meeting in washington today we get more from bloomberg's michael mckee it has to be a rather awkward meeting with many news outlets reporting janet yellen is about to be replaced as fed chair by someone sitting at the same table today that governor jay powell not that it will make any policy difference powell has voted with the chair since joining the fed in two thousand twelve is vote and everyone else is on the policy committee is expected to be for nochangeinrates nor are they central bankers forecast to make major changes to their statement wall street is betting they will make as little news as possible ahead of an expected fed chair announcement in washington michael mckee bloomberg daybreak asia and that fed chair announcement is expected on thursday in washington indeed looking what's going on with both sunni and sunnis being rudy looking a well this tell you something to watch a.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The us is front and center ready to go you is adamant about december but much more tentative about what the time line is for europe it will be fascinating at the ecb meeting and you i it's it's secondary tour us listeners but i wonder how much maybe we ought to be paying a little more attention to mr draghi in frankfurt michael mckee sitting down four thing needed a sitting down with eric rosengren the president the boston a fed of course mr rosengren now a voting member the fomc this year but delivering some comments on the need for tightening nothing unexpected there because he's been making that case for a long time but some interesting insights into the labour market arthri tom he said that we could see the unemployment rate dipped before four percent that was an exceptionally important interview anyone listening to this who's studying economics at the undergraduate of a high school level should go back and listen to the rosengren interview he gives a dissertation on the labour dynamics of labour demand labour supply and and howard folds into wage growth uh uh dr rosen agreeing with just really with mike mckee on this mystery of wage growth and whether you're at the on the mater of your grows and colby college anywhere else to go back and listen to that interview can find it a tv go on the bloomberg terminal bloombergcom fifth thing you know you're really quickly tom bank of america reporting early this morning and wells fargo reporting in about twenty minutes time will bring you those data as soon as they cross the bloomberg earning season squarely underway here in the us coming up here on bloomberg surveillance and a you're gonna be sitting down with david lipton the fruits managing director of the international monetary fund from the imf world bank annual meetings we're gonna carry that for you live here coming up on bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg radio things and finance keen to try though real chinese spicy hodhod one well now you can get your hands on.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Michael mckee for making a swift watch that video is it still exists i missed you gotta believe tried to take it down michael thank you so much he is with jp morgan on fixedincome a little bit there and crypto currencies let's get a check out natural headlines at here in new york for called michael barr michael good morning david good morning john president trump's again called for getting rid of the filibuster rule drop in a tweet a few minutes goes as we will have the votes were healthcare but not for the reconciliation doug line four friday after which we need sixty it comes a day after the authors of the republican effort to overhaul the obama health law acknowledged they do not have the votes ahead of a critical end of the week deadline president trump also tweeted this morning he spoke to roy moore who won last night's republican primary win for the us senate seat vacated by jeff sessions or beat incumbent luther is strange was backed by trump women we'll be able to drive in saudi arabia it will begin in june global news 24 hours a day powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries i'm michael barr this is bloomberg david tom now thanks so much michael really the vicks gusts by tension in a solid point three five points nine point eight four rudely signalling out a dash towards those record highs were not there the dow twenty two thousand to eighty four the dollar stronger this morning the yen one twelve 93 right you're 130 this is bloomberg qian to try though real chinese spicy ipod well now.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And there are a select few did give wonderful perspective back and also look forward like the end of alchemy are really want an identical the financial times giving has more than accolades as well a few years back futures up one doubt futures up to a tape is fed day two pm this afternoon wall street time scarlett who leads are coverage michael mckee in washington politics policy and power we don't have to make it matter we just need to show you wired does china and russia don't sound like the committee on board these having dinner at the white house tonight peter barnes and amy morris weekdays at noon eastern on bloomberg radio this is a bloomberg market minute stock futures are little changed as investors turned their attention to today's federal reserve decision now they focusing on the central bank's four and a half trillion dollar balance sheet right now as p futures are up less than a point nasdaq futures unchanged dow futures are up to us investors taking stock of more new record highs yesterday on wall street enron right across the board financial shares led the gainers adobe systems signals a potential slowdown in revenue from marketing services sparking concern about a business that the software maker is counting on to fuel future growth and bed bath and beyond is down about fourteen percent before the opening bell after its sales tumbled more than analysts predicted last quarter and the chain warned that recent hurricanes were taken toll on profit nymex crude is moving higher this morning it's up one point two percent at fifty dollars and eight cents a barrel gina sir batty bloomberg radio hey carry out keen to dry though real chinese spicy ipod well now you can get your hands on this flaming hot dish starting this october hainan airlines the first chinese airlines wanted a nonstop flight from new york to western china on board the new boeing seven eight seven fly without fivestar airline and book your trip to chongqing or turned you today visit hainan airlines dot com for more information broadcasting live to new york bloomberg human.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And a half trillion dollar balance sheet and each will offer a new set of forecasts for growth unemployment and inflation their views on the economy will inform their plans for monetary policy expressed in this whole called dark plot does the rate forecast fall at how does that impact the forecast for a december move finally chair janet yellen news conference where she'll be asked about the feds inflation models and her own future in washington michael mckee bloomberg daybreak europe and joined the radio on the tv crews for cover bridge of the fed special from seven pm london time we'll have the latest analysis the reaction in the markets and also voice from the former fed chair vice excuse me form of fed vice chair alice rivlin and black rocks chief fixed income strategist jeff rosenberg yeah so that'll be digesting the fed either is interesting finish sure chief economist at invest join me in the last hour omega and he said the five three sports the open sports on the fed at once the janet yellen steps on febrary they are a problem and he wants to see serious people put in today's their jobs by the us president and if you want to understand the complexity that they've got an extra one on your functions higo caroline have dots go and they and you click on you of b i fed spectrometer and you see who of the hawks who the neutrals who the doves and who are the arch duff's great stuff kit function love it may have all the uk the phone secretaries backed away from his threat to quit the government over theresa may's bags it strategy a day off the boys johnson openly discussed the possibility the of life out of office of hasn't familiar with his plans says that he will now attend may speech on friday about exiting the eu as scheduled to influence meanwhile the financial times is reporting that theresa may will offer twenty billion years to fill a hole in the eu budget after breaks it may gang some way towards the european union the question is will be enough yes will that break the deadlock that is the debate in the meantime there is well beyond markets syndical offers ever is here with us answer today with the latest breaking news from mexico good morning mannasseh state of.
"michael mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Even parts okay let's talk about some of the other top stories this morning the federal reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at yesterday's policy meeting and said that it would begin trimming its multi trillion dollar balance sheet relatively soon michael mckee has the details the benchmark rate stays with the range of one to one and a quarter percent but in what will be interpreted as a dovish move policymakers dropped a reference to inflation running somewhat below its two percent target the statement now says overall and cornflakes should have declined and our running below two percent the forecast language though hasn't changed inflation is is expected to remain somewhat bolo trooper senator to nearterm but stabilize around the committee's two percent objective over the medium term so a bit of a surprise on the balance sheet an inflation language but basically this leaves investors where they were going into the meeting anticipating a battle treat move in september at a rate move if it happens no earlier than december michael mckay bloomberg washington okay honestly that was the fed decision yesterday benefit known event but actually is an interesting so we in the this morning that the looming deadline about raising the us government's debt ceiling could actually add up complicating the feds plan to unwind the balance sheet if is significantly disrupts financial market so that's won't watch yes it once was unthinkable chance we were saying is the price of astra zeneca astor's any case jazz down fifteen point six percent and just ones aligning me this of course the pharmacy tickles company based in the united kingdom and the makki capitalist business now around at seventy seventy two two billion us dollars this is no small operations see size of share price they've fifteen point six cents at the south of trade this mystic combo the disappointments round mystic combo and how it performs as his chemo certainly something that has gripped said griggs analysts and something that said they see as being punished for right now at less which have some of our other coup oh put stories then and nestle has said that 2017 sales guys will be at the lower half of aids focused that's after the slowest fess half revenue growth this.