25 Burst results for "Michael Gove"
What Bitcoin Did
A highlight from The Debt Spiral with Preston Pysh & James Lavish
"It's not just some random Bitcoiner and some guy from Cincinnati talking about this debt spiral anymore. It's everybody on Wall Street. It's like very credible people. The math isn't working anymore. And this is looking like we're crossing the event horizon and there's there's no return. Hello, Bitcoiners. How are you all? It's surviving out there. You having a good week? Right. I've got a very cool show for you today. I'm going to get into that in a minute. But welcome to the What Bitcoin Did podcast, which is brought to you by the absolute legends at Iris Energy, the largest NASDAQ listed Bitcoin miner using 100 % renewable energy. I'm your host, Peter McCormack. And today on the show, I have got two legends. I've got James Lavish and Preston Pish. Now about a year ago, we recorded with James, we recorded with him and Greg Foss. We looked into the debt clock, we looked into the debt spiral. And a year on, we wanted to follow this up because the debt clock, I think it's increased by like $3 trillion. And we wanted to understand what's happened, what's changed, are things getting worse? What's this going to mean for us? What's it going to mean for Bitcoin? Is inflation coming? Is high inflation coming? Is hyperinflation coming? James is a great guy to work through this. And we all know Preston, we know the show we made with him about the monopoly board. So to get the two of them together and talk about this in LA was an opportunity we could not say no to. So let me know what you think of this. I do want your feedback. You know how to get hold of me. It's HelloWhatBitcoinDid .com. Morning, Preston. Hey, good morning. Morning, James. Good morning. How are you both? Needing coffee? Yeah. Thank you for the coffee. Thank you for the early show. Thank Danny for that. Actually, I've been up since half five. That's not bad. Half five. Not me. I didn't go out to play last night. Half five. You don't say half. Well, we'll say 5 .30. Okay. Sorry. I didn't even understand what you said. Half five means 5 .30. It's like, oh, whatever. I haven't done my American Duolingo yet. You go down south. It's tricky. 5 .30. 5 .30. Welcome both. How you been? Been great. When did I see you last? Was it Nashville? I don't know, man. Yeah, Nashville. It was Nashville. We were talking about BlackRock. Were we? Yeah. Did I last see you in Bedford? Or no Miami? I feel like no Miami. Yeah. It's like every few months we get to hang out now. Yeah. There's so many events. So many events. Do you remember what we spoke about about a year ago? No. You don't? With Fosse. With Fosse. Oh, yeah. That was fantastic. Yeah. We talked about, there was a debt problem coming. Yeah. Well, you retweeted that recently, again, because we were, when we were preparing, we're looking, always, you look through people's Twitter, see what they're talking about. And we saw your retweet of it again. Was it a pin tweet? You know what happened? Yeah, I had pinned it. What had happened was back in July, August of last year, Greg and I were having a conversation. We're talking about the debt. And he's like, you should probably write something about the debt spiral. I was like, yeah, that's probably a good idea. And then, you know, we, I wrote that and people were like, whoa, whoa, wait, wait, what? Yeah, what? How does this work? Yeah. Well, so I was going through that this morning and I hadn't realized that was the one you wrote a year ago. I thought it was recent. And I got down to the debt clock and I was like, oh, no, that's wrong. Because it was like 30 .7 trillion. And then I looked at the data and I was like, oh, shit, this was a year ago. And we're at, what, 3 trillion cents? Here we go. Oh, yeah. Well, here's the interesting part, which what's great about this is this is a great website, the usdebtclock .org. But they're using all of the data that's coming from the CBO and the Treasury here. So they're just pulling data from actual government sources. Right. So this isn't just made up. And you can see all the way in the top left, 33 .5 trillion dollars. Well, here's the crazy thing. We crossed 33 trillion just about two weeks ago, just over two weeks ago. So we've added 500 billion dollars of debt in two weeks. That's half the GDP of the UK. How are we doing? I think it's not GDP, about a trillion. I don't know. 1 .1 trillion I think the UK GDP is. You added that in two weeks, half of it. Well, we added the entire market cap of Bitcoin in two weeks. Yeah. How's that? But the whole premise of that thread was that we are spending far more than we're making. So if the US was a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, it would be called a zombie company because we're not covering our interest payments. So our interest payments here is the best part is that last year when I wrote that thread, the interest payments were like $600 billion. They're now approaching a trillion for the year. If this was my personal finances, my house would probably be foreclosed on. Very soon, you wouldn't be able to pay your credit card debt. And you'd be taking out more credit cards. And those interest rates would just be going higher because you're, OK. So this is what we talked about last year. I know. We're going to revisit it because I think it's worth it. OK. Well, I mean, the bottom line is that we're fucked. The punch line is, yeah. Well, the whole point was that we had compared. I compared it to like a single parent who was just trying to keep up, right? Yeah. And you and I talked about this. We talked about this at length, Preston and I almost daily. But the bottom line is it's like you're a single parent. You're trying to keep up. You know, you've got your mandatory expenses. OK. So you've got your mortgage, your car payment, the food for your kids. And so you've got to gas for the car. You've got to make these payments. And if you don't, then you're kind of screwed because you either lose your job, you lose your house. So you've got to. But you're not keeping up because of inflation. So what do you do? You take out a credit card and you start charging these credit cards. Well, of course, you're not keeping up because you're in a negative earnings position. So now you're taking out, you fill up that credit card. And then the interest payments on that credit card are so high that you start paying the interest payments on that credit card with another credit card and paying on your mandatory expenses. And it just goes into a spiral where you just can't get out of. So you literally go bankrupt. But the problem is, as your credit gets worse, the interest on the credit cards that you're offered is higher. So it makes it even worse. It just compounds it. And we said, well, some people won't even lend you money. Exactly. So we said, yes. And so we said last year that you get to the position where people won't lend you money and they're going to charge you a higher interest rate for it. And that's what's going to happen to the US debt when we get to a point where people realize, oh, god, this is not stopping. They're going to have to issue so much debt that I want a higher interest payment for this. I'm not going to lend them money at 3 % for 30 years. I want 5%, 6%, 7%. And here we are. Or like when I was in Argentina a couple of months ago, they're offering 150%. Yeah, well, that's hyperinflation, which we could get to. I don't think it's hyperinflation yet. Yeah, hyperinflation is 50 % a year. Yeah, exactly. That's an academic definition. It's ridiculous. OK. But my interest in this really is that, and I think the reason we have to revisit it is because lots of people listening to the show, they like Bitcoin, but they tend to tune into these conversations more. It's really a macro show. We call it what Bitcoin is, a macro show. And we know that because we'll get you two on and there'll be like 80, 100 ,000 people listening. We could get Nick Szabo on and it'll be less. So we know, and Nick Szabo people love, but we know that people want the macro because they're like, this is the shit that affects me right now. How bad is it? And what do I need to do? Yeah, because it's affecting your personal finances and the future, the future of Bitcoin. And having in the last few months been out to both Argentina and Lebanon, where I've seen a company, a country which has effectively collapsed in Lebanon, where the currency isn't worth shit. It's used as change, actually. So when you're going to Starbucks, you buy a coffee and you get your $12 change, you'll get $10 in the $2 in the lira. They use it for change. And the only people actually using it are government workers now. And they'll, yeah, I could tell you so many stories, but essentially they just put a new law in place. People who work for the army can get a second job because the money they get paid is worth shit. And so I've always been of the belief that hyperinflation is something that happens in developing economies or other parts of the world that you hear on the news. And it's never really going to come to the UK. It's never really going to come to the US. But actually, we spoke about this in the UK. We talked about one of the ideas is that you could run triple digit inflation to wipe out the debt. And so I think the reason it's important to keep covering this is you're the experts. Where are we? How bad is it? How bad could it get? What's the time frame? And what can people do? They're really important questions. To your point on the credit card example with the rates going higher. So when you look at the last year, we've seen inflation pull back, but yet you've seen treasury yields across the entire duration of the yield curve continue to go higher. Let's define that first. Inflation pull back. We still have inflation. It's just not as bad as it was, but prices are still inflating. So that's something that the government wants to confuse you on that. They say prices are going down. No, no, they're not. The rise, the rate of rise is going down, but it's still rising. So go ahead. That's a super important point. Let me add to that. That's where our prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has been gaslighting the British people because he's been saying, they asked about tax cuts recently, and he said a very honest thing about inflation. Have you seen this? Actually, this is wild. Get this up. But he did say also that I want to bring down inflation so people have more money in their pockets. I was like, hold on a second. If you bring down inflation, they're not going to have more money in their pockets. They're still going to have less money in their pockets. It's just at a decreasing rate, but you're still going to have less money because you've still got inflation. And that was a fucking lie. And I was like, are you lying, or do you not even understand it yourself? It's the same exact thing that we have with our press secretary here. She was gaslighting us, and they just refused to answer the questions. They just keep pointing back to, oh, it's getting better. Watch this. So this is some wild honesty. It's a tax. It's a tax that impacts the poorest people the most. And that is why the best tax cut that I can deliver is to halve inflation. And that's why I set it out as the first. Economically, the impact that it has on people is to eat into their pockets, it puts up the prices of things, it effectively acts as a tax. And that's why we must bring it down, and that's why we are, and the plans are working. But my question to you, Prime Minister, this morning is about the impact of the changes that you have been making. And you're explaining that you think they're the right things to do. And you're basically saying, bring it on to your critics. But on the one specific, your close colleague, Michael Gove, this morning has said that you should commit to cutting taxes for working people before the next election. So she's trying to argue in the background, I don't know if you heard her, she's saying, but inflation is not a tax, and the Prime Minister is saying, yes, it is. And so now he's kind of being honest. Yeah, it's interesting. Yeah, which is wild. Well, you know, but I want to hear what else the press needs to say. Oh, no, no, I find it crazy that the BBC is arguing on the opposite side of that. That was crazy. No, so, and James's point is really important. So you have disinflation, which means the prices are still going up, they're just not going up as fast as they were when they were 8 % annually. But when you're looking at the yield curve, and you're seeing it continue to blow out, the yields are going higher, which means the prices are coming down, you would typically see that if inflation was rising, you would see that behavior in the fixed income market, because everybody would be trying to adjust and have some type of yield on top of that inflation rate, which is really kind of your keystone that you're trying to outpace or your hurdle rate is whatever that inflation rate is. So the fact that we're seeing that continue to sell off is effectively the example that he provided with the credit card where the rates keep going higher, because people don't, they're getting to the point where James wrote this article a year ago or whatever it was, and it was kind of like, oh, yeah, look at this guy over here. He's, he's some Twitter guy, a macro extremist. Look at this. Look at this. I had so many people come into the thread to say, you're out of your mind, you're exaggerating. Oh, you're exaggerating. And then Luke Roman told me, Luke Roman told me, he goes, it's not just some random Bitcoiner and some guy from Cincinnati talking about this debt spiral anymore. He says, it's everybody on Wall Street. It's like very credible people talking about what James highlighted a year ago, that the math isn't working anymore. And this is looking like we're crossing the event horizon and there's there's no return. Well, Caitlin Long said this to me four years ago. She said, even is it even longer? I'm not sure. Four or five years ago, I made a show with her and Safer Dean and she was like, they've got it. They're running out of bullets here. And I don't know when it's going to hit, but it's going to hit.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Think it's important in all of these situations whenever allegations are made that they are investigated impartially independently and in full. We don't want to precipitate Russian Dutchman, but we do once all the facts are laid out, need to decisive action, and that is what the prime is for this given state decisive action, but only after a full and proper investigation. Michael gove there, speaking to reporters on Sunday as that news broke, the government now wants to refocus on its plans to overhaul the NHS, but it heads into another week of disruption with strikes planned across multiple sectors. While Wall Street's focus will be split this week between the global central banks we've mentioned, but also big earnings with a preview of what to look out for his blue begs Charlie pellets. Microsoft and Intel rattled investors last week, Lisa shouted is chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley. She says it's a bad omen for the U.S. economy. There is definitive risk to the earnings profile as both pricing power and volumes declined coming off what has been a historic stimulus over the last two and a half years. And a pull forward in demand. This week we will hear from tech giants, including Apple, alphabet, metal platforms, Qualcomm, and Amazon also reporting ExxonMobil Ford GM McDonald's and Starbucks. In New York, Charlie pellets, Bloomberg, daybreak, Europe. Okay, those are a few of our top stories for you this morning. We've also had some breaking news though on the bleb data, the preliminary fourth quarter GDP figure for Germany has come out on the terminal. It falls two tenths of 1% quarter on quarter. So that's actually below the estimated 0% no growth in terms of the preliminary fourth quarter GDP number. We've been watching that closely for Germany. Obviously, you have largest economy, but not quite as good as had been hoped. No, I think there are hopes that it will improve come this quarter, considering the energy crisis hasn't been as bad as people had assumed it would be. But again, this does emphasize prices are still high, demand is being weighed down. Yeah, absolutely. Also, I had a really good conversation this morning with the lead at EY on the subject of profit warnings. I think worth mentioning as we get lots of earnings out today that the number of UK companies who issued profit warnings last year 305 basically up 50%. So we've been talking a long time, is there another shoe to drop? Will there be more defaults, et cetera, and I think that is one report to take note of. Yeah, the interesting thing, though, are the kind of companies who can, I guess, benefit for lack of better terms of this environment. I was speaking with the Ryanair CFO earlier this morning. Very much to one of those companies if there's concern about cost of living, perhaps you're not going to fly British Airways, perhaps you'll fly Ryan air instead, so he came in just abundantly full of confidence saying our bookings are so strong and we're able to rise our prices a bit too because of that. Okay, can I be acidic? I don't think I've ever heard an interview with one when they haven't been bullish. I can't be at times or bad. So, you know. Okay, but there's rare interviews with executives in general where they're not bullish. They're earnings. They have to be. They don't want to be all dour. They want to be optimistic about what's to come. Absolutely. Let's turn our attention then to the other major news that is dominating globally, the story out of India, from rebuttal to counter rebuttal, Gautam and Dani issued this 413 page response to the short seller Hindenburg research over the weekend, then by Monday morning, New York based Hindenburg had pointed out that it fails to specifically answer three quarters of their questions joining us now to discuss this in more depth is Bloomberg opinion columnist Shirley wren. Good morning, Shirley. One of the world's richest men in this very public fight now back and forth day after day with the U.S. short seller. Quite nationalistic this rebuttal calling Hindenburg and attack on India, the report about adani being an attack on India, what do you make of it? It was a quite nationalistic and emotional made up of Manhattan as well, even though the founder of the Hindenburg worked with the analysts who have covered Bernie Madoff's policy scheme. So if anything, please and highlight off. Regardless, what other Hindenburg's major allegation is Scott manipulation. And that it's a company insiders have used the offshore overseas investment entities to buy into a diving shares and the pump of the share price. So as such, adani really needs India regulators to be on my side because according to the India security law, if you have less than 25% of free flow on the public marketplace, then the stock will be forced to delist and the Hindenburg set for the 7 stocks actually cross that threshold. So I think they just want to whip up a bit of a nationalistic home and then to have the body government on this side. And we know the body government has taken that kind of time before. What could the Modi government do then to help? I mean, as you say, taking this nationalistic tone, but we're still looking at share prices fall this morning. So to what degree will that work? I think it's interesting because I mean, frankly, U.S. facing investors may not be the smartest by the biggest customers, right? The U.S. firm managers, they are big buyers into India and against stocks. Basically what happened was last year with all the China COVID zero and the developer defaults, global investor, American investors, they basically and they're so out of Chinese assets and they bought into the Indian growth story. I mean, they also has a population of 1.4 billion, but they are younger and the growth prospects are better. But the problem with India is that everything gets very expensive. I think India is blue chip stocking that's traded over 20 times earnings. Twice as much as China is at the moment in the U.S. stock market in a way. So global investors basically, they brush aside all sorts of corporate governance questions that bought into very expensive things. And the Hindenburg go report pointed out is like, wait a minute, you have to wake up at the look at what you have bought. And in that sense, I kind of agree that it was an attack on India or Indian assets. Okay, that's put it interesting. Shirley, thank you so much for being with us. Really great to have you on. We will continue to track this story, of course. I'm hugely important for global investors Bloomberg opinion columnist. Surely ren then on the adani group and what's happening with stocks and bonds in that Indian company. Well, let's turn to Europe and the rate of inflation in Spain unexpectedly jumped after months of easing. Now this news has prompted traders to boost bets on just how high the European Central Bank might raise interest rates, of course. There is a decision this week. Joining us now who will of course be in Frankfurt for that decision is Bloomberg's Europe correspondent Maria. Maria, last week everybody more or less thought Lagarde was bluffing, does this data change things? Is it time to finally listen to madam Lagarde? And Danny look, I'm so happy this morning because I'll be going to Frankfurt and everyone knows by now that I'm Spanish and funnily enough, this was a piece of data that I used to cover for so many years that I can kind of look at just that release with my eyes closed. I think look, you make a very good point. First of all, let's just look at the data. Today we have Spanish completion for January. The idea for a lot of
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To thousands of rail workers from the TSS a union with a plan to stage strikes over multiple consecutive days in the new year, so I think this is something that we're going to be grappling with into 2023 Stephen. Yeah, certainly, well, that's just one of the stories in the papers today Leon you've been looking through some of the other stories to the Financial Times has the headline Michael gove and ante 1.4 billion pounds of devolution deal for northeast England. Tell us more. Yes, exactly. So the FD has a story on an announcement from the leveling up secretary Michael cove. He said a historic 1.4 billion pounds devolution deal with northeast England that will create the role of an elected mayor with new powers in the region. Michael gober's hailed the deal is giving local leaders more power Steven, more money and even greater say in how the areas are run. As you know, this is all part of the leveling up agenda that the conservatives are really invested in after a consultation process so we still waiting for that to happen. They are proposals for elections to happen in 2024. But we have to just point out the figures here so the government is promising to deliver 1.4 billion pounds, but it's over the next 30 years. So it's not immediate money into those areas. Okay, so that's one of the stories that you've picked out for us. The times meanwhile says that Tory chaos has made Britain a laughing stock. This is according to Lindsay hoyle. Yes, it is, and you know that Lindsay hoyle is the common speaker, and he's been talking to BBC Radio form the times newspaper has really picked up on this interview because he says Britain has been made a laughingstock on the international stage because politics has been absolute chaos this year and I know we've spoken a lot about politics on the show and he said he's never seen anything like it before when reflecting on the year in Westminster he said the whole thing has been the strangest of strangest of years and he mentioned Brexit really dividing the country families and people's respect for democracy has struggled actually since that boat happened. And he also says he's prepared to hound out those in parliament who do break the rules because there's been allegations about bullying and harassment that have emerged this year so we're seeing a really strong point of view there from the comments speaker Lindsay hoyle. Okay, so that's Lindsay hoyle and the times today. And another musical story you've picked out in The Guardian, I believe Leon and this is something that we should all be thankful to Harry Styles and Taylor Swift. Oh, I knew that they were so important in our lives, you know, Harry Styles and Taylor Swift, but apparently vinyl sales have surpassed CDs for the first time in 35 years, and that is thanks to fans of Taylor Swift and Harry Styles, Rick astley was topping the charts the last time vinyl sales were higher than those of CDs. And that was all the way back in 1987 when I was one years old, but I was just going to bring that up for you. But in cash terms, shoppers spent 160 million on vinyl and 98.3 million pounds on CDs from January to November this year. Midnight's Taylor Swift's the latest album absolutely excellent listening. I love it. Has been the biggest selling vinyl record for a century in the UK. Well, well, there we are, Steven. I think I found it more shocking people are spending that much money on CDs to be honest. Because sound purists will tell you that the sound of a violin is better and I feel like that retro trend has been on the. Oh, definitely. That's what I said earlier. As the room in their house proceedings. I know, but maybe they've got a seedy pack. You remember, you used to have that and be able to slide it into the plastic fault. They're terribly scratched. But you know what? I miss about CDs. One thing because when you open the cover, you get all the words to the lyrics. That was life-changing. Streaming services will give you that opportunity. Yes, they do. They do, but it's not the same. You can't sing off it as you like walking down the road. Yeah, yeah, that's true. But I'm just saying, isn't this amazing that basically vinyl is like you said it's coming back, it's one of those retro trends. Things like this always seem to happen. And I must admit Rick astley, one of my mom's favorites and I started singing one of the songs today. I'm not going to do it. For everybody, but it's available. All right. I mean, I don't know why that was going, but we'll board inside later, Leanne go, and thank you very much to that review of the newspapers this morning here in the UK. Let's get more on the story from China today, though countries across the world, adding were considering fresh restrictions on travelers from the country after Beijing moved to open up its borders. We can go live to Shanghai now and speak to Bloomberg's Alan Juan for the latest on this story Allen. Thanks very much for being with us. Can you bring us up to date in terms of the travel rules and which countries have said that they're doing what when it comes to travelers from China? Well, Japan was the first to say that it's going to require a negative COVID test. Upon arrival for a million Chinese residents, but the U.S. is considering new precautions as well, basically this concerns about our new variant emerging on China ever since the government announced that no longer going to require quarantining arrivals from January 8th. And it's going to start issuing passports against passports against people can travel. To be fair though, you know, the avocado right now sprinkles China isn't really dissimilar from what we've seen in the west. But I think that there's a lack of transparency about data in China that's fueling this concern. You could have a country as such as Malaysia and India, they have also imposed restrictions, but it seemed to be broader and less targeted. Are these rules and restrictions that other countries are adding? Are they going to dampen the appetite for travel from for people from China? Well enough on you. I just want some of my Chinese friends and they said they were a little offended And a little worried they may get quarantined upon arrival if they test positive, but they still want to travel after being confined for the past three years. I'm going to throw some numbers at you just to show how much demand there is. Right now, bookings for Alpine flights from male and China 254% yesterday from the day before. And the top 5 destinations
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"For direction with traders weighing the prospects for a slowdown in the pace of fed hikes against data showing that tighter policy might be needed for longer S&P E minis up to a quarter of a percent. NASDAQ futures also up a quarter of a percent, but here in Europe we're an hour into cash equities trading and the Euro stocks 600 is up, down, flat, pretty much flat. Also pretty much flat. In Asia, though, specifically Mainland China, the CSI 300, up a half of a percent that's on optimism that China's reopening will boy demand same story as it's been all week Tom. Okay, let's get you caught up now with the rest of today's top stories and the global economy is forecast to grow at one of its slowest rates since the early 90s next year with DGP set to rise by amiga 2.4% Bloomberg economic space case four season recession in Europe at the start of 2023 with the U.S. following suit towards the end of the year. Our markets correspondent critic Gupta points out that's a shift from other projections. The pricing that a lot of this recessionary talk in the end of 2022, early 2023, is only going to go further, which means the carnage in the equity markets and arguably the bond markets as well if you're in the camp that yields are going to go higher. So cell cell cell, then that is really where the pain trade is going to be because the timing is so hard to pin down. The detailed report from our economics team also warns that China could become an inflation wild card as a country emerges from COVID zero. Bloomberg has learned that the United States and the European Union are considering fresh tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium as part of a bid to fight carbon emissions. The move would mark a new approach as the U.S. and EU would seek to use tariffs usually employed in trade disputes to further their climate agenda. The idea which originated in President Biden's administration is still in the initial phase and hasn't yet been formally proposed. Rishi sunak meanwhile has dropped plans to impose mandatory house building targets on local councils as the prime minister caves in to pressure from backbench Tory MPs. Housing secretary Michael gove insists the decision doesn't weaken the Conservative Party. No, I think it makes the government look strong because we're delivering on the planning reform that we promised a year ago. When I arrived here, I said that we wanted to have a planning system that put beauty and local democracy at the heart of our planning system. That's what we've got now. Thanks to close engagement with MPs like Theresa villiers and bob Seeley, who really care about getting the right homes in the right places. Despite Michael gove's comments, the climb down once again underlines just how beholden sunak is to backbench MPs in his own party. Staying in the UK retail sales jumped by 4.1% in November, but the increase has been dwarfed by inflation. The British retail consortium says while promotions linked to Christmas and the World Cup have helped to breast growth, the numbers suggest that volumes continued to be lower than last year. Retailers are worried that buyers will soon start to scale back spending as higher costs constrain their budgets, with inflation running at 11.1%, analytics firm IgD says the UK retail market is seeing a decline in real terms. And talks with Britain's train unions have been derailed after the RMT rejected a 4% pay rise deal and announced extra strikes over the Christmas period. General secretary Mike lynch says they've escalated action because of a deadline set by network rail. What we've been faced with is an extremely detrimental offer. It's a very poor in relation to the pay elements. And our members simply aren't in a position of the feedback that we've had to accept the changes that the companies have put on the table. Mike lynch there criticizing network rails pay offer which the rail company called its best and final deal. The union now plans on strikes for Christmas Eve from Christmas Eve to the 27th of December. On top of 8 other days of walkouts. So there your top stories. We've got a brilliant chart on the terminal by aemon farhat Tom, highly recommend a look if you haven't seen it already. But it's an advent calendar of strikes here in the UK wonderful every day till Christmas. And in fact, he puts the strikes from different sectors on top of each other on each day, and when you lay it on its side, it looks something like a Christmas tree, but really a visual representation of how chaotic things are here in the UK. Prime minister Rishi sunak's addressing crisis cabinet meeting this morning to sort out what the governor is going to do about the rail unions, really the received wisdom is that if the strikes aren't called off before tomorrow, there's going to be no salvaging Christmas travel, but you have to wonder whether public opinion is going to turn if people can't get home for Christmas, right? I mean, it's a very brutal prospect, clearly for commuters and people looking to travel over the holiday period, but 4% within an inflationary environment are double digits. You can also see why the unions are pushing, pushing back on that. But as you say, we're facing a plethora of strikes and strike action industrial action. On so many different sectors, whether it's the bus drivers or nurses or rail, it's going to be a really challenging few weeks and few months. Indeed, but the government's argument is that they've done so much to help when it comes to energy support, so cushioning the blow from the inflation. That if they were to give in to demands for a double digit pay rise, they'd be adding to the wage price spiral. I'm not sure that that argument there is catching on. Well, that debate continues. We'll see if they can cross and get something across the line before tomorrow as you say, which is an effective deadline. Lizzie Burton, of course, on the strike in industrial action planned at four and across the UK in the weeks ahead Let's get back to the broader economics there and Bloomberg's global medium term outlook is out as we mentioned in the top stories. The team forecasting a base case for 2023 of global growth at a meager 2.4% that's down from 3.2% in 20 22 and it's the lowest leaving inside the crisis years of 2009 and 2020 since 1993. Meanwhile, fed rate expectations while those spike sharply higher after data showed the U.S. economy growing faster than expected, let's bring in their chief Europe economist Jamie rush and markets editor Eddie van der Waals and let's start with you Jamie on these forecasts. First we'll have challenging is it to forecast growth with so many different cross currents and what is your projection in terms of Europe and the depth of any recession in the Eurozone? Well, I think by the time you've multiplied out an economic forecast and a weather forecast, which is what you require, what you need to do is be able to get the economic forecast right in Europe. You have some sense of how uncertain it is going into next year. But one thing that is important is that we have this energy crisis, layered on top of that, we have the ECB, the Bank of England's responses, the energy crisis, which are going to crimp demand very significantly as well. So maybe confident that coming down this pipeline, there is a huge monetary squeeze on Europe. There is also the energy crisis and the squeeze on household incomes we gain from that. So yeah, those are going to get a bad place for you of next year. An Eddie, it seems like good economic news really can be bad for markets. Yeah, absolutely, Lizzie. What we're seeing here at the moment is that the market is taking good news as bad news. And that is because it signals that the fed is probably going to hold the course, keep interest rates higher for longer, and that's what the market doesn't want. The market is worried, don't forget, not so much about the fed hiking, but about a hard landing. And the fed needs to engineer and narrative of a soft landing which means that they need to high grade just enough not to bring the economy, of course. And that's why the current mixed picture of positive and negative data is so worrying for markets because they don't know which way it's going to break. And anywhere are we then in the in the repricing of this terminal rate. We were speaking to Goldman Sachs, Sharon bell earlier on Bloomberg TV, she still expects a step down to 50 basis points in December. But her estimate like the markets now is you're going to be at 5% or plus 5% in terms of the terminal rate next year, where are we in pricing around that? Yeah, it's the market is pricing something like 5% for a terminal rate, but look, long range, bid forecasts are about as accurate as long range weather forecast. Nobody not the fed, not the market tends to get this right. So really, you know, when the market is talking about the fed hiking at a slower pace right now, that's the only thing that I think markets can price in
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"It's a big Middle East. On the road in Istanbul and Dubai. But let's pivot to the United Kingdom. The prime minister there is trust is preparing for a battle. Another bangle with the ruling Conservative Party this week to quash any attempt of rebellion just one month into a premiership. Let's bring in leann garin's. She's in London. So let's trust Leigh Anne is starting the week battling for her political career. This is about the backbenchers rallying against her in terms of complete and utter lack of faith in her and her Chancellor. So Manet's a Monday morning comes along and the prime minister is again baffling to keep her job. We heard about this last week, and it's actually not just her backbenchers who are being rebellious. It's also her cabinet ministers, we saw that, didn't we last week at the conservator party conference with people like penny morden speaking out against her possible benefits cut when she would not raise benefits with interest rates. She said, this is wrong. This is what needs to happen. And obviously, we saw the likes of the back benches whose Michael gove and grant chaps, they really came out and almost forced to U turn on tax cuts for the highest earners. So once again she arrives back here in London and tomorrow, the cabinet will meet and we understand that Liz truss is going to rally those rebellious backbench MPs and cabinet ministers to make sure she shores up her position and she can get her policies through the government because that's the main part of what she needs to do. Absolutely. There's just so much to consider when looking at UK politics at the moment. Leanne, thank you for helping us through that that's Bloomberg's the Anne guarantee quick note on gold here. According to the CFTC positioning numbers, a little bit more interest. In fact, the most interest we've seen since about early 2020 intraday at the moment a little bit lower off the back of a stronger greenback to the tune of about half of 1%, but
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Now the paper review on Bloomberg daybreak Europe. The news you need to know from today's papers. Well, let's go through the front pages with Bloomberg's Leon garin's the telegraph trailing Liz truss's speech the Conservative Party conference and later on today warning her reforms will cause disruption, but in her words that is the price of success, plans are being made by some backbenchers to remove Les trust number ten though, that's in The Guardian and the metro leaders can she fix it. The reference to the issues within the Conservative Party, leann, you have more on all of these stories. Let's start with the telegraph. Yes, indeed, Steven, good morning to you, so Liz truss is expected to say as she addresses her party this morning whenever there's change there is disruption. She is also going to warn that there'll be further disruption others will come as she fights to deliver economic growth, she will back quasi quants the Chancellor's mini budget, but after a turbulent week, the prime minister will acknowledge that not everyone will be in favor of her reforms. After facing days of opposition to her tax cutting agenda, she will also launch an attack on what she would call the anti growth coalition, we have heard and seen the rebels in the Tory party really come out. I wonder if this is who she will be directly addressing. And the telegraph also understands senior Tories are planning to enforce brutal party discipline when MPs return to parliament next week, and that is to shore up Liz truss's position. But I think what this is all telling us is the party conference has not gone as well as what was expected. It has certainly been a bit of a rough ride. And as a result of that rough ride are some backbenchers plotting to try and remove his trust already. This is perhaps the thinking in The Guardian story today. Yeah, you're absolutely right, Anna, rough ride, roller coaster, we've heard all of these words and as The Guardian state, Liz truss's cabinet is now in open warfare, strong words there. And this is really over that 45% tax U turn and the debate that is bubbling away over benefit cuts. Yesterday, the Home Secretary cuellar braverman, we heard her speaking, and she accused fellow Tory MPs of a coup against the prime minister grant shapps and Michael gove para probably the most senior ones really coming out there attacking some of the policies that were announced and grant chapter as I mentioned him the former transport secretary has also suggested Liz truss has about ten days to turn things around and signaled MPs may try to remove her if the polls continue to show labor is really on course for that landslide majority. The next election, however, two years away, we must bear that in mind. Leanne, I learned something about it this morning and that's you've never seen bob the builder because the headline of the metro can she fixes was lost on you. I know. I've never seen bob the builder and I must have actually never watched a lot of cartoons, but I didn't grow up in this country and didn't have a TV, so it isn't my fault, but apparently their metro asked the question can she fix it? Reference to bob the builder. The story is one that's really following this theme, the telegraph one and The Guardian that the prime minister is just on a survival trial right now at the moment as we know. She's really defending her position after just 29 days in the job. The paper says Liz truss will make the most important speech of her career today as she battles to stop this mutiny in her party. She will address her MPs while facing this open revolt from ministers and back benches over how she plans to fund her controversial
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stride the sort of Bronco ride that was what I can't take credit for describing it that way, but I thought it was a perfect way of describing what happened to Sterling and to guilt yields. That could be taken in stride too. Can it be by markets is a big question and then when do we get the medium term fiscal outlook? When do we actually get the nuts and bolts of spending and how it's going to be how the tax cuts are going to be afforded? Well, traditionally Caroline, it would be it. This is the conference. This is the point where the conservatives gather and annually build for the next election set out their policy agenda, reaffirm their ideological commitment to what they hold dear. But instead it seems to be a party playing catch up. It's dealing with the latest crises. It's dealing with the latest comms fallout and it's trying desperately to hold on to its MPs because if you can't handle your gathering of the party faithful, just wait until parliament gets back next week and you have to handle the leader of the opposition and your rebel MP's plotting and having shown up here. Yeah, absolutely. Well, in the speech, yes, they quasi quoting said that he would set out how the government plans to get the debt falling as a percentage of GDP over the medium term soon, so shortly was his word of the FT saying, it expects that to happen later this month, but we heard from those treasury select committee MPs that they would prefer for it to happen before the 3rd of November, which is the next Bank of England meeting. And I think what is interesting now is that has gone public. And you see the same thing with Michael gove and grant shap, who owned over the weekend, went public, which helped precipitate that big U turn in the first place. What is starting to happen is people are coming out of the woodwork and saying, I object to this and they're willing to go public and with people like govern shaps well known figures in the party, they're becoming lightning rods for other MPs criticism and now we see mouse stride and Anthony Brown say, well, we'd like this push forward as well. Other MPs are trying to shape their own government policy they're raising their hands and going, actually I have an idea of how this could work better. That is going to lead to difficulties for trust who is trying to have a unified ship because now she has to deal with basically people call it what they want from outside the tent. Okay. James, thanks so much for being with me, putting back James wolcott with me at the Conservative Party conference in live in Birmingham where Stephen, but the songs come up, people are starting to come out the Starbucks is open, so there you go. We've got lots of confidence members now turning up for their coffee for everyone much happier to see the Starbucks opened. Caroline and James in Birmingham, thank you more from you later in the program. This is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"They're going to try to frame it is to say we've removed the politically toxic part of the budget and the rest of it is all good. Look labor would have done the cut to the basic rate of income tax as well. There's nothing to disagree with here. The markets have bounced back everything's fine. Actually, there's still all the questions about credibility because remember, this is funded by borrowing and that comes back to the spending question, which is going to be a painful for any minister with a department whose budget they're going to be trying to protect, right? And they're just remain huge questions in terms of where the markets go from here. So when carting is speaking, I'm sure that investors are going to be listening to every single syllable. Yeah, and a longer and deeper recession than we had expected. That was the verdict of Bloomberg economics. Indeed, and it also comes down to what the Bank of England, but what doing. But what's interesting is that BOE rate bets have paired back. They're still over a hundred basis points, but they're lower than where they were on Friday. So it would be interesting to see how the Bank of England responds in November. I'm looking out over the floor of the ICC here in Birmingham right in the heart of Birmingham. You know, when we came in, there were quite a lot of protests, Jacob Rees mogg put that down to, you know, it's everybody's democratic right and that the protests were peaceful. But it does feel like it's getting very heated and also there are some really conspicuous absences from very big names at conference. It's starting to get quite crowded in the hall at what sort of hop I'll say in the morning here, but those absences are quite significant. Yeah, no Boris Johnson, no Rishi sunak. Lots of people soon are allies that we've been trying to speak to today out of interviews because they don't want to be seen criticizing the Chancellor, the prime minister in public, which says a lot to me. And really, I can not describe how difficult how different the atmosphere here is to when we were in Manchester for Tory conference this time last year. That seemed like a delayed victory round for Boris Johnson because of course they weren't able to celebrate his landslide victory because of the pandemic. This is a nail biting atmosphere. You're just waiting for the next thing to go wrong. And it's tense not just among delegates, but among MPs and ministers that we're seeing. And quarte was also asked about whether MPs would be angry that they were pinned down effectively that they were told by the party chairman and others that if they didn't vote in favor of the government's economic agenda that they'd be out of the parliamentary party. I mean, Jake berry in some ways is sort of ruffled quite a lot of feathers. And there have been quite a few other comments as well. Michael gove and George Osborne have both come out against the tax plan and sort of against, I would say the budget as a whole really in some ways have been quite critical, quite openly critical. Yeah, lots of people saying that the Michael gove comments saying that the top rate of income tax reversal was not in line with Tory values. What big statement? It is a huge statement. But what George Osborne was also saying was that they could boost their credibility by bringing forward the office for budget responsibility forecasts from November 23rd. I speak to people in markets and they agree with that. That would boost credibility. Interesting that I interviewed Rachel Reeves at Labor Party Congress. And she reminded me of George Osborne actually because both of them have a question. Why does Comcast business power more businesses than any other provider? It has technology solutions that put you ahead, like the fastest reliable network in serious savings. Ask how to get a $500 prepaid card with a qualifying gig bundle, offers ten 23 22, restricting supply, call for details. While you sigh on the market, George Osborne did back in 2012, it was something that he said in parliament. And she is able to explain why market moves matter for the government and married matter to ordinary people. And yet even this morning quasi quatre is blaming the market volatility on the international context when it's very obvious to anyone with a Bloomberg terminal that the pound has risen this morning because the government has U turned on this policy. Yes, there may be the backdrop of the war in Ukraine dollar strength, fed hikes, but when all of that is already priced in on top of that, you see the power moves the guilt moves. Okay. Also, I quite like this line that I picked up from Jacob Rees mogg, the business secretary who was speaking last night, a panel event speaking to small businesses. Businesses always ask for certainty but certainty is not in the gift of mankind to provide. I mean, it's those sorts of comments that are slightly worrying. I would have thought for business people. And then I was also we were speaking to the IEA this morning. Again, very influential, the institute of economic affairs to littlewood to Mark little wit about this. Known for the kind of libertarian free market thinking and influence on government. And he was defending the government saying it's great that we should have got rid of this one element of the mini budget because now we can focus on the main part of the budget, but there's also a question around entrepreneurial spirit whether this budget will tax cuts will unleash that here in the UK. Yeah, I think it was Chris Philip, who was pointing out to me that the business measures were warmly received by the institute of directors, the federation of small businesses. So that's a question as well for labor because they're desperately trying to court the business section of the demographics, but when Jacob Rees marks Jacob Bruce Mark makes comments like you just quoted. Remembering Johnson's business quote when quasi quoting says markets will react as they will. It's difficult for investors to feel like they're the primary audience here. Yeah. Absolutely. And then I suppose the other main question is around the pension term or whether that ends what the Bank of England does in terms of it sort of credibility, the fact that in October, the bond buying is going to come to an end. I mean, that is still a sort of open question in terms of markets. It is, and there's also the question of whether the pension sector needs to be regulated more and this huge spiraling out of control in the guilt market affected eldis. Are we going to get more regulation there? Immediately because this is something as lord wolfson of next. Set has said, it's been a problem a ticking time bomb since 2017. Okay. Lizzie Burton, thank you so much for being with me. Great to have you on Bloomberg radar. Our UK economy and government reporter Lizzie burden
podcast – Lawyers, Guns & Money
"michael gove" Discussed on podcast – Lawyers, Guns & Money
"He could constitutionally do these things. I don't think he will. But I thought he would have stood down after the vote in no confidence because every other one of his predecessors. Margaret Thatcher, Margaret Thatcher, if you remember, Michael heseltine stood against her in a leadership election, and she won. She just didn't win by enough, and so she stood down and resigned as party leader and ultimately as prime minister. That's the model that ordinary people would follow. Comparing ordinary people and Margaret Thatcher. But he hasn't done that. So who knows? There's still time for him to throw some of the curve ball. So I mean, I've seen a lot of speculation about this, but to your mind, after we go through this process, however long it takes, who is likely to be next and is there any will there be any effects on actual policy assuming that there's not another election? Is the British government going to do something else? And who's going to be the next prime minister? I hate that question. A few years ago, when Theresa May stood down, there's a ready short list. When David Cameron stood down, there was a ready short list. The conservatives have been in government now for 12 years. And the knock on effect this has is anybody who is considered an a lister. Anybody who's on the front bench. They've been in government long enough. They've been ministers long enough where they've had to make some unpopular decisions and they've alienated people. Not only people in the who vote against the conservatives, but they alienate people who support the conservatives for some of their policy choices. And so whereas in the past, you could see, well, even two years ago, Rishi sunak, the departed Chancellor of the exchequer. He was very popular. People thought he was going to be the next leader. And then he made some decisions in, I think, was the autumn statement, not a budget, but kind of a Proto budget. This is what the budget is going to look like in 6 months time. That was all about raising taxes, cutting spending. And raising taxes is not something that makes Conservative Party members very happy. And so his star faded quite a bit. Michael gove, same could be said about him, especially his duration as education minister. He only needed all the teachers. And so it's really difficult to find somebody who's going to lead the party who hasn't been somehow damaged within the party itself. And so this is why what I'm thinking will happen. It's going to be somebody we haven't heard of. The way it works is the parliamentary Conservative Party will whittle down the list to two, and then those two will be presented to the conservative membership and there's about a 100,000 Conservative Party members in the country who will make that decision. But I really think it's going to be somebody who we really haven't heard of. Again, much like when Thatcher stood down, people were looking at the Michael hesitancy in the tug was heard to the world. Nobody had heard of John Major. He came out of nowhere. Yeah, he had been Chancellor for 25 minutes or something like that. But the point being, he hadn't been in government long enough to alienate people. And so I honestly, I don't know an answer to that question in terms of policy. Again, it depends.
podcast – Lawyers, Guns & Money
"michael gove" Discussed on podcast – Lawyers, Guns & Money
"She just happened to election. But that can't be helpful to Johnson at this point, right? I mean, he's not he's not personally popular. And having a new election would bring labor to power. Am I wrong about that? Well, yeah, those of us who are rational would look at it and go yeah, there's a chance labor would probably be a minority government. I don't think I don't think even now with an 8 point lead that the Labor Party will get a majority of seats. In parliament, but it would be a minority government definitely. So labor would be in power. But Johnson's not rational. He's been hanging on long past the period when most every other prime minister was confronted these series of actions. By his own members of his party, have walked with dignity. He didn't walk with dignity. And he could be thinking, well, I really love being prime minister. And as you saw from his resignation speech, it was defiant. He talked about he talked about his biggest conservative majority since 1987, the biggest popular vote chair for the conservatives since 1979 Brexit Brexit Brexit Brexit, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine. And he was basically taking credit for all of that. Because in his head, he's the reason. So if he does want to hold on to power, that's the last throw of the dice. Is he sufficiently vindictive that he would his anger is directed mainly at the Tories. And so he wouldn't be unhappy to result in a labor government. He shacked Michael gove, what last night, and Michael gove had heretofore been one of his conscious defenders. And Michael gove had the temerity to say, yeah, you might want to resign. And he sacked him from government. So that's a friendship gone. Yeah, he's clearly vindictive. And so I don't think he cares about the Conservative Party. Much in the same way where Jeremy Corbyn didn't care about the Labor Party. Jeremy Corbyn faced obviously a much smaller scale because it didn't dramatically affect the course of the country. But in 2016, again, following the Brexit referendum, the parliamentary Labor Party felt that Jeremy Corbyn didn't do enough to campaign to remain. And of course he wouldn't have, because he was always elected. He always wanted out of the European Union. And so there was a vote in no confidence in the parliamentary Labor Party against Jeremy Corbyn. 80% no confident. Most people would go right. I can't lead a party where 80% of the parliamentarians don't like me. He stayed. For another four years. You know, so.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Have got the European markets opening up for trading this morning in shares, starting the day with gains. We are seeing the stock 600 up by almost 1% at the start of trading, the FTSE 100 also up by 1%, the cat in Paris, off by 1.2% gains to on the FTSE mayor, but the Dax and the ibex 35 across the stocks, 600, we are seeing gains across all sectors today, the basic resources leading the gains there up by 2% at the open of trading, looking ahead towards street futures, they're up by a quarter of 1% in the S&P E minis, and we are seeing the dollar down slightly down two tens of 1%, the ore trading at one under one O two now while cable is at a 119 54. We are, of course, focused on UK politics. I also want to just take a quick detour to tell you that Hungary has hiked its surge, its deposit rate by 200 basis points. That's 2% onto their interest rate. This is all part of the global fight against inflation, of course, and I mentioned this because the expectation was that they would increase 50 basis points. They've done 200 basis points. So not half a percent, but 2%. That's all part of the global inflation narrative. Let's get back to the UK politics and our top stories. Boris Johnson is refusing to stand down after an avalanche of resignations from his government. He sacked his leveling up secretary Michael gove last night after he urged the prime minister to resign. 50 of Johnson's own MPs have quit their government roles, citing a lack of trust and integrity, Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis is the latest senior minister to go this morning, but conservative MP James doddridge, who is a parliamentary private secretary to Johnson, says the prime minister is not backing down. He's up for a fight. And he knows he's going to be difficult, but he asked me to leave
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Yeah, and so Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland secretary of the key person here. And also Helen Whatley, who was a treasury minister, Lewis is the one to look at. It's another very well known public figure senior captured key element. Brexit strategy. We were told yesterday morning by a senior source inside down inside Downing Street that the prime minister's kind of core team would consider themselves in deep trouble if 6 cabinet ministers quit in our lost three. So the numbers are mounting, of course, since then, we've had the line from Johnson spokesman last night, they determined to fight on. But the exodus continues essentially this morning. Okay. And that means many senior Tories, potentially interested in the leadership. Who are the runners and riders? I think you'd have to have the deems that are we at the top of that less probability. He refused he's been positioning himself at that except in the job of Chancellor the complicated for him is does he damage himself by backing the wrong horse at this stage of the game. Of the others. It is trust has long been touted as a potential candidate she's been maneuvering pretty openly, Rishi sunak stepped down as Chancellor earlier this week would be a more technocratic figure. Ben Wallace defense secretary has also kind of burnished his reputation during the Ukraine war. So there are quite a lot of candidates out there. There aren't really I think at this stage FrontRunner emerging. But I think the race is going to be getting underway in earnest pretty quickly. Michael gove being sacked was the sort of a twist in what was otherwise a stream of resignations yesterday. Are there other conflicts out there that Boris Johnson might seek to resolve in a similar way? That's a good question. I was trying to one of my colleagues Alex Wickham last night about all this. And his observation was that inside Downing Street they've realized that the game was up and they're just trying to take down as many people as they can before they go. I'm not sure quite who would be next on Johnson's hit list, but it does seem that he kind of entered the kind of the chaotic score settling phase of a premiership which surely can't go on very much longer. Okay, score settling. Oh dear. Well, does all of this increase the odds of a labor win at the next general election? I mean, the Labor Party in some ways looked to be taking a very big step back from this kind of bonfire. Yeah, I think that it's been also some intense, so much movement over the past few days. It's kind of difficult to think about where we're going to be when the dust settles, but one thing to bear in mind is that this Tory party has now been in number ten for 12 years, which is very long time in political terms. And so the political cycle would suggest that the Labor Party would be coming around again with the next election. Added to that, it's clearly been damaging for the Tories. The whole kind of implosion of the Johnson government over that over the last 6 months and the longer that Johnson holds on the worse, it's going to be. The new prime minister, whoever it is, will probably get a year or so to put their mark on the government and that will determine a lot about labor's chances. But you have to say that the more this goes on, the better it gets from labor. Okay, Ben sales our emerging editor for European economy and government. Thank you very much for joining us on that coming up later in the program we will be speaking to Jared Lyons who was previously the chief economic adviser to Boris Johnson during his second term as mayor of London. He's now chief economic strategist at net wealth. So we have more from him on that story later as well. This is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The vote party member. So she would do well there. Rishi sunak, who quit as Chancellor, triggering this crisis. This week is another potential contender. Although there is chatter in Westminster that he's potentially a bit tired of politics and may look to return to finance. And then perhaps Ben Wallace defense secretary who has really kind of raised his profile over the past few months of the war in Ukraine in those who probably be the first people who looked. Okay, so those are the runners and riders. Does all of this increase the odds though of a labor win at the next general election and when might that be? What's the speculation around that now? I think it has to to be honest. The way the Tory party is tearing itself apart, trying to get rid of Boris Johnson is really kind of unprecedented. That's extremely damaging to the party. It's other good luck with voters. And I think that when we put the people we speak to in the Labor Party, they've long been saying that while obviously they believe that the country, it's time for Johnson to step down and it's been stepped down now for several months. Then not on happy with this spectacle of him because they think a damage leader Is. really to their advantage. Ben, how important was the stocking of Michael gove and all of this? It does seem like that it was slightly telling the door after the horses bolted in some ways. Yeah, I think you're probably right there. It feels like it's a dramatic moment. I don't think it necessarily necessarily is a great strategic move. Obviously, if you think back to 2016, it was Michael gove who famously ended Johnson's first run at the leadership when he came out moments before Johnson was about to declare his candidacy and so he felt he wasn't fit to be prime minister. There's an element of revenge in that. It does those feel like a prime minister who is extremely short of our lives and needs people who can deliver for him. I'm not sure he really has the depth of resources to be able to fire someone like Michael gove who is a extremely effective as a minister and be in charge of one of the key policy areas for Johnson in terms of the leveling up agenda. Yeah, Ben, really fascinating. Thank you so much for being with us Ben sales. It's been a big managing editor for European economy and government. We'll get more on this story, of course, because the head of political polling from opinion Chris Curtis will be with us later on in the program and much more coverage on British politics, of course. This is Bloomberg. Now
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of his ministers, his top advisers quit, and is fired another Michael gove. He, though, is remaining defiant to stay in his job. The last thing this country needs frankly is election. The earliest date that I can see for a general election is two years from now. Yeah, saying death and defiantly, he will not quit. And now some very smart money had it that he would not last the day, but he has, and Bloomberg John author says it looks as if he'll hang on a while longer as well. Even though he doesn't now have enough people willing to be ministers to fill all the ministerial jobs in the British government, it's obvious that he is planning to move ahead. And it looks as though it can't come to a head before next week now because he is talking about launching a new economic plan on Monday. And that is when the two commit 1922 committee, sorry, the sort of organization of back bench MPs will meet to set a new executive and they can then decide whether to change the rules to allow MPs to take a vote on whether he should go. Now John says having said that, something else could happen at any moment. Heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan have now left 77 people dead over the last three weeks. Officials say 39 of the 77 died in rain related incidents calling it a national disaster. The widespread rain for Sydney has moved to the state's north and into less populated areas of evacuation order issued for singleton though more heavy rain they're expected into the day. Singapore has confirmed its first local case of monkeypox. The man is in stable condition and health officials are tracing in a close contacts. U.S. president Joe Biden has signed the final order in the American rescue plan, one that will protect union, pension plans. Today's actions, millions of workers will have the dignified retirement. They earned and they deserve. Biden saying U.S. economy has to be built from the middle class on out. U.S. and FBI treasury departments have issued a joint advisory against North Korean ransomware. They say North Korean state sponsored hackers have been involved in multiple incidents recently and the periods of disruption seem to be getting longer and are seemingly targeting healthcare now and FBI director Christopher wray on the same path he's in the UK is a warning of stepped up activity as well from China and says the threat to U.S. companies is getting worse. He also warned that if China attacks Taiwan, global economies will be hurt. In San Francisco Ahmed Baxter, this is Bloomberg, mister C in Hong Kong. All right, mister B, thank you very much 22 minutes here before the top of the arch time for sports. Dan Schwartzman covers sports for us and he's looking at Rafael Nadal moving on surviving at Wimbledon. What a match. It's one of those matches Brian, you just
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To us especially That's the chief financial officer of continental dura field speaking with Bloomberg after their first quarter results were out earlier interesting to keep an eye on how those auto parts manufacturers and of course tires being conscious on tiles big businesses playing into the wider supply chain story as well Yeah second biggest car parts made make it in Europe a pretty enormous company Fans fascinating readout on the state of the global economy Let's take a look at some of today's newspaper headlines here in the UK and not surprisingly yesterday's state opening of parliament is front of most of the papers The metro has an image of Prince Charles looking at the queen's crown after she pulled out of delivering the speech with the play on words wish you were ER The son has a similar splash with the headline I hope I did you proud mummy the son headline writers doing themselves pride I think with that one was off The Guardian claimed the Tories are bereft of ideas to tackle the cost of living crisis after criticism that the queen's speech didn't go far enough in supporting struggling families now some data outs on that today that are a number of people I think more than a million people could drop into what one think tank called destitution Yeah that's a really stark figures as well Interestingly the eye reporting today the prime minister making a U turn and could be revealing more in the coming days We're hearing a little bit more about the hopes for what Boris Johnson government can do from our UK economy portrait Lizzie Burton a little bit earlier on the program as well Yeah the daily express has the same story saying that Boris Johnson promising firepower to help hard hit families We're told by Michael gove that it won't be emergency budget but it does sound like something more is going to be coming from the government they're teasing some sort of statement over the coming days and weeks on that matter Yeah well the times is picking up on the proposal by the government to allow cancels to tax the profits of developers.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I think our plans for using those in gas surcharge are that would have windfall tax would have helped us a great deal and gone a little bit further towards attacking that huge height in bills But this is really the sorry tale of failure to manage the market allowing our storage systems to go by the buy And barely to invest in installation in our properties we should have been doing this for years and reducing those bills and investing much more heavily in renewable industries where we're coming to it now but we're still lagging behind some of our European trends and we should be we should be cracking on with this at first So that was the labor MP for Middlesbrough Andie MacDonald's speaking to us on Bloomberg Westminster reacting to the leveling up proposals from the government for Michael gove This was really the plan that won the government the vote in 2019 and its sizable majority We'll talk a lot more about politics today Tim Lawton the conservative MP for east worthing and sharing will be joining me Partly we're getting the policy blitz because the prime minister perhaps is under pressure You've got 13 now Conservative MPs his own backbenchers calling for him to resign and this also inflation already at a 30 year high So that's the other issue We're going to perhaps hear from the government today in response to off gems increase to the price cap which some see is perhaps up 50% for household energy bills What will the government do about it The telegraph reporting that Rishi sunak is considering loans to energy companies try to dampen down the effect and what will the Bank of England do about all of this not really within its remit but of course dealing with inflation is So Bloomberg's Lizzie Byrne will be back later on in the program to tell us more Pretty much baked into the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"michael gove" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg daybreak Europe The idea is we hold the economy in suspended animation until we get control this virus We are very much in the picture of monetary dominance We will get slower growth I mean let's not get confused about that We are in a national park I think it is for all parties to call together The Euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime Bloomberg daybreak Europe on Bloomberg radio Good morning from London I'm Caroline hep Ken And I'm Tom McKenzie you're listening To day break you're at life on London DAB digital radio So this has been the week of the fed and of the future of Boris Johnson We just learned this morning that actually the Metropolitan Police want all the key details strict out of the civil servants report into any parties at Downing Street Meanwhile in terms of markets quite interesting that U.S. yields are continuing to rise on the ten year and the two year one and a half basis points But if it's all going on between the earnings picture which is turned a little bit more positive with the likes of LVMH of course listed in France coming out with record sales Apple as well navigating those supply chains for a very stellar set of numbers with of course that readjustment to potentially 5 rate hikes in 2022 Yeah let's give you the numbers then briefly so European stocks are heading lower down 7 tenths of 1% to tax and even bigger drop of 1.1% futures for the U.S. though turn fairly positive as you say the strong apple earnings and asset features up 7 tenths of 1% S&P 500 even if it's also gaining two tenths of 1% Other markets that we're looking at so a strong dollar that continues today are a tenth of 1% this morning And oil continues to rise $86 95 now for WTI food features that up by four tenths of 1% But it's gold that suffering down three tenths of 1% so below 1800 and all in reaction to the feds stronger tone in terms of rate rises Okay so those are the markets We also have a redhead crossing now We had the French GDP coming in for the fourth quarter as a beat above estimates You got German GDP coming in now and this is again pointing to divergence between these two The two largest economies in the Eurozone germ the German economy actually contracted 0.7% in the fourth quarter the estimate was for a drop of 0.3% So the German economy contracting 0.7% in the fourth quarter versus estimate of zero a drop of 0.3% Again the divergence between Germany and France and the economic recoveries is pretty fascinating Let's get more though on the corporate stories here in the UK away from the big headline data and bring in Bloomberg's news editor breaking news editor Charles cable for all things UK when it comes to deals and M and a and acquisitions but also regulatory oversight as well And you've got the UK's go asking a minister of course asking the FCA to regulators in the CMA to look into the building insurance markets What are the details Indeed yeah so Michael gove here of course is the minister for leveling up housing and communities Has asked those regulators to look into the building insurance markets Now this is insurance that freeholders of perhaps a large apartment block might take out for the whole building but that is paid by the lease holders Now what gove said he is seeing is that the cost of this insurance has sometimes in some cases rapidly increase which he said is leaving leasehold residents with crippling costs He says the market lacks transparency and he says there's not currently enough useful data to explain the rationale for these increases So he's asking for feedback within three months and a report within 6 Yeah and this is all to do with the grenfell tower fire that killed 72 people back in 2017 that huge blades in London that really raised the issue around cladding and dangerous cladding on building So the continued fallout years later from that still unsolved Okay let's talk about renewing then Recycled materials trading at a higher price that's affecting their bottom line Absolutely So renew is one of these companies that takes away our waste and I had to dispose of it or turns it into a new material And what I thought was really interesting is that of course there's a general trend towards using more recycled materials in everyday products pencils for example or pens but you also have a high commodity prices which are now making recycled materials a perhaps more affordable option And that's kind of offsetting moving some of the demand over to that way And then that's making the price of recycled materials rise and in turn renewi says that they're underlying email ebit is now expected to be at least a 120 million for the year So that's compared to €73 million for 2021 And of that recycle at margins so the products from these recycled materials are expected to contribute about €40 million more than last year Okay so a silver lining there may be to the inflationary picture that we're seeing that upside demand For recycled goods even protection though saying that they still well they've managed to get on top of their supply chain disruptions It's interesting because we heard earlier from Givaudan which is a maker of fragrances and flavorings saying that these remain the input costs are going to remain elevated and supply chain constraints remain a struggle for them but Avon protection saying they've got a grip on this And that's kind of what I feel the story of this earnings season is starting to turn out to be especially amongst some of these companies that are more manufacturers that are experiencing these supply chain disruptions And you have some companies that seem to be on top of the matter and you have other companies that seem to be struggling with them a little bit So Avon protection makes protection materials sometimes they make things like body armor or helmets or things like that Now they say that although they warned of supply chain disruptions they continued but they are now largely stable and they're taking mitigating actions They also say that customer demand is robust but because of those longer lead times perhaps more of their profits are going to be towards the second half of the year Their shares are slightly down this morning but interesting comments they're nonetheless Yeah absolutely Charles Thanks so much for being with us It's great to have you on throughout the week of course every morning around this time Charles capable there's a Bloomberg breaking news editor picking us the morning rush Okay And with your top stories other top stories.
Overthrowing Education
"michael gove" Discussed on Overthrowing Education
"And we said, right, this is our plan. What do you think? And they sat down, I think it was about 6 p.m., so they weren't even supposed to be working because it wasn't school hours. They sat down with us on a Zoom call, bear in mind, we were in lockdown as well. So they could have said no and done other stuff. They sat down with us for about an hour and a half and said right. This is what we think this is what's good. This is what you should change. And they just supported us. And they still are supporting us. They still asking me, how's it going? Do you need any help? I can give you help. I can give you contacts. I can talk to this person. I can do that. So I think teachers or even parents wise, it's supporting that young person, all those young people, and just like I said, passing down that wisdom, passing down that experience, not saying no to them, like those teachers really could have. They could have easily said, oh, sorry, don't have the time or sorry, I can't be bothered. They actually took their time. Listen to what I had to say. Listen to my idea and then gave me feedback. So I think for teachers, it's opening up your mind, it's and then opening up your resources to young people, because as I teach you, you have so many resources available to you through your own personal contact all through school contacts through colleagues. You're going to have so much more resources and things that you can give them that young person. So it's just, you know, even if you think it's a crazy idea and you'll never work, believe in them. It's literally that simple, just believing in those young people believing that they can make a change in helping them any way that you can. Absolutely. And teachers can really ask guiding questions and give things to think about. And I think what you're saying is so often times adults look at something that younger people come up with and say, oh, that'll never work. Yeah. And my son is always coming up with amazing business ideas and different things. And maybe he doesn't follow through. But what we do is we actually guide him and say ask good questions to have him think about different things and have him think it through. And I think it's going to be fantastic for him. So teachers could really do that same thing. What are the questions you want them to think about? Instead of just saying, that's never going to work. You know, just actually really like you said, supporting them and saying, you know, what a cool idea. Yeah. But I wonder if, or have you thought about this or how would you do this and really help? And I think that's great. And I hope that teachers will do that. And maybe actually look for that and try to help develop student leadership in that way. I've had other episodes about developing student leadership. And I think it's just so important. And you're such a great example of that. Thank you. So I have a question for you if you could imagine there's no limits. What? Just completely out of the box. Yeah. If you could have the ideal education, your vision, we know that certainly it would involve being proactive about helping students with important life skills. But beyond that even, what would education be like? It could be anything. What would your fantasy of it be? So actually, sometimes this opinion is quite unpopular. Action with a lot of young people, which is crazy to believe, but is obviously unpopular with adults and teachers. One of the things that I would want is absolutely no exams, no grading. And I know you're probably thinking, oh, this is another young person who can't be able to do it down. No, actually, if those are two of my biggest changes that I think need to happen in education, no exams and tests they should be authentic and creative assessments and no grades, it should be feedback only and mastery. Yeah, because for me, some people have very good with the exams. They can cope with the exam stress. They can get through the exam period. I am the complete opposite. I stress, I get myself so worked up, you know, walking through the exam who I'm just absolutely terrified. So obviously getting rid of exams will stop that. But as much as I want to get rid of exams, they should be replaced. What you said sort of creative assessment in the UK in about, I think it was 2010 if I'm correct. An MP Michael gove completely scrapped the education system and rebuilt it. And he got rid of all of the coursework, which was extremely unpopular. So instead of subjects being half tests, half coursework, the now 99% test. And that is absolutely terrible. That is ridiculous. Yeah, so a couple of weeks ago in school, so in politics right now we're learning about U.S. and we're learning about the U.S. political system. And that's fine. We had a mock Congress debate. And I absolutely loved it. It was so fun. I think the motion was does the USA need democratic reform. So the teachers split us up split the pass up, half of the clause saying, yes, it does need support. I was on that side and half of class saying, no, it doesn't need support. It's fine. And we had an hour to prepare all of our notes and stuff. And then at the end, we did a vote to see who would win. I don't want to brag, but my team won. And I thought to myself, I thought that would be absolutely amazing as an assessment, just absolutely. It's been a mock debate getting involved. And even though there were some people that didn't talk, they sat there because they were either too nervous or they didn't know what to say. They still had to plan an argument as if they were going to talk. And people had different roles. So, for example, in my party, I was a party whip. So I had to go to the other team and I had to try and steal some votes. There were people who sat there and wrote notes down and research things, then there was people who stood up and spoke as well. So it's just things like that. It's writing course workers writing essays that you can express yourself. It's making pieces of music about something it's sowing things designing things drawing posters. It's doing mock debate is more of those creative get your mind thinking. It's things like that that I wish we had instead of these tests that sit down and I'm going to test you on something that you learn in September 2021. Right..
Morning News with Manda Factor and Gregg Hersholt
Britain to extend COVID-19 restrictions
"Steps forward in several steps back covered restrictions are being re implemented now. In Britain, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove acknowledges the new measures are being taken reluctantly. But in his words, they're absolutely necessary example. When it comes tio eating out to socializing, then it will be the case
AP News Radio
UK to impose tougher COVID-19 measures amid case spike
"British prime minister Boris Johnson is announcing new restrictions on social interaction as the government tries to slow the spread of Kobe nineteen before it spirals out of control defeating the restrictions happen not office minister Michael Gove since pubs and restaurants across England will be ordered to close at ten PM daily and people who can work from home will be encouraged to do so reversing the back to the office plan good says reducing social mixing is key to slowing the spread of the virus adding it was impossible to say how long the restrictions will be in place Britain has gradually been increasing restrictions as cases rise with people already barred from meeting in large groups Charles Taylor that's not London
AP News Radio
UK to impose tougher COVID-19 measures amid case spike
"British prime minister Boris Johnson is announcing new restrictions on social interaction as the government tries to slow the spread of Kobe nineteen before it spirals out of control defeating the restrictions happen not office minister Michael Gove since pubs and restaurants across England will be ordered to close at ten PM daily and people who can work from home will be encouraged to do so reversing the back to the office plan good says reducing social mixing is key to slowing the spread of the virus adding it was impossible to say how long the restrictions will be in place Britain has gradually been increasing restrictions as cases rise with people already barred from meeting in large groups Charles Taylor that's not London
BBC World Service
EU, UK in urgent meeting on lawbreaking British Brexit plan
"A hastily arranged meeting will take place in London today between Britain and the European Union about new legislation the British government has introduced which ignores parts of the Brexit agreement signed in January. European Commission's vice president, Moro's chef, Jovic will be meeting the Cabinet Office Minister Michael He is our Europe editor. Before leaving Brussels, Mr. Seferovic echoed off the European leaders when he insisted the withdrawal agreement was not up for renegotiation. He said he hoped Michael Gove would assure him that the letter, the spirit and the timetable of the agreement would be respected. If not, there's talk of Brussels, possibly taking legal action. The outcome of today's meeting is also significant for the future of trade talks between the two sides. The U says it's still wants a deal but that the UK respecting the federal agreement is fundamental.
The Leader
UK demands the public wear face coverings in shops
"UK. Government's announced that we compulsively to wear masks and shops in England. Oil Risk one hundred pounds fine. At least it will July twenty four th. That's ten days
Bloomberg Markets
Macy's stock is jumping after the retailer said reopened stores are doing well
"Macy's you know how to make some moves here I think maybe perhaps trying to get a little bit on firmer footing here they're opening up about four hundred fifty stores I got a new credit line the kind of shore up their balance sheet let's get the latest from Poonam Goyal she's a senior user U. S. retail analyst for Bloomberg intelligence put it thanks so much for joining us here give us the latest on what's going on it with our good friends at Macy's sure I will so I think you know we may see the largest question about having liquidity there answering back pretty nicely having security over three billion dollars and credits just recently have a clean three prior to that against their real estate story seeing as they just reported preliminary second quarter first quarter results and they have about one point five billion dollars in cash that coupled with the addition additional financial security but they have to curate the positions I'm in a good place to keep their liquidity and check and pay off any upcoming that they have about one billion dollars in debt coming due over the next two years so we think they're in a good position in terms of liquidity on sales you know there's been some cheer just that stories are reopening infielder getting better be at the I don't think that you know they won't after the positive territory in terms of positive sales growth until twenty twenty one Clinton what about employees by was speaking yesterday with the union had to adjust to negotiated the re opening agreement with Macy's now not the new contract that's still in negotiation but the re opening agreement which was a massive agreement with many many concessions I suppose you would say and also things that were negotiated between the two one of his points was that he doesn't think that everybody is coming back to work yeah I think you know right now Macy's has four hundred and fifty doors open and they're still a lot more open we think given the reduced hours not everyone will be retired immediately and you know to say what will happen over the course of the year will really depend on the productivity that they see and the stories in the warehouses and even digitally because overseeing as our stores have reopened at the department stores sales are at sixty percent levels roughly until last year and digital continues to be strong so you know when we get to near eighty ninety hundred collectivity is gonna probably start to see much of the labor force these are retailers are tearing some put him you based upon your discussions with investors that you talk to and and the executives at the retailers you cover is there any expectation that this changes pandemic has changed consumer behavior permanently maybe we'll see some changes in either how they shop how stores are arranged the hours you know R. is there some big changes coming for retail I think so yes I think the biggest change okay John and even more rapid rise in E. commerce so you know what's not what's new terror apparel retailers this time around Michael Gove provisionally you've seen that one of the grocers and mass merchants now apparel retailers have began to roll that out though as they institute curbside pickup and possibly even keep it posted condemning that's going to change the physical real estate that they own I mean I think they'll still want stories but I don't think the stories need to be as big as they are I don't think they need to have those stories of the two so I still stand by my view that we need a reduction in storage and I do think coming out of this pandemic occurs are renegotiating it many doors made out of will they be the doors inside the moles the ones that are sort of in the the higher end models you think Clinton would they be the easiest to close or some standalone I think it'll be a mix I think that the most risk it after a lorry here on Saturday whether small or off small predominantly involved so I think those are the retailers that you know will take advantage of the current situation and really look to accept those leases at a more favorable terms than originally if they were to try to access those places will online at Macy's do better because of this yes I think I might will do well in in general you know spectacles what environment clearance Macy's has about a quarter of its business online and online sales has pointedly in April in fact they're seeing some retailers call out as much as a sixty to seventy percent increase in online sales in the most recent month so we do think I will continue to have strong double digit increases and even triple that distance and categories like home enough to share all right
Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe
Boris Johnson spent the night in intensive care receiving oxygen treatment after his coronavirus symptoms worsened
"In the U. K. a dramatic turn in the corona virus outbreak prime minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care after he was hospitalized on Sunday and his condition got worse yesterday afternoon officials say Johnson is receiving oxygen but he's not on a ventilator Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is temporarily taking eva speaking to the BBC this morning cabinet minister Michael Gove said Johnson remains in intensive care at St Thomas's hospital here in