5 Burst results for "Michael Barr Tom Kaley"

"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:39 min | 10 months ago

"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Historical ranges in currency pairs any given commodity let's go through things one by one Dollar ruble life above 80 in recent history That's been tough It doesn't last very long crude life above a hundred tough doesn't last very long Jeff when you start to get to these levels do you use historical ranges just as a point to say maybe we should fade it now is that useful So it is useful but you have to wait that against volatility So how do you do that on a volatility adjusted basis And also volatility reflects current market activity market participation Again looking at our transaction data looking at our flow data there's just not that much going through rubles and right now If you wanted to liquidate you probably would have done it a long time ago be an international investor a domestic investor all the hedges are in place Actually we've seen about 80% of ruble longs and come off since last year when the stagflation trade was on That was the point of peak ruble strength and ruble holdings So that's totally dissected away from what's going on in the geopolitics So FX market overall feels okay about this right now All right Jeff so that's on the ruble front on the other part John mentioned oil near a $100 What is the read through potentially to an energy price shock to Federal Reserve monetary policy in the place of then evermore heightened inflation So this strikes at the heart of what central bankers are worried about right now As in a de anchoring of inflation expectations they're reading the headlines people in the UK across Europe they've opened up their gas bills already and the open up their home energy bubbles and saying oh my God it's so high and then they look at the headlines right now It's only going to be higher So how do central banks need to get back ahead of the curve to manage household inflation expectations That's going to be the big challenge and that's going to be the read through into what happens to monetary policy from higher oil prices right now Well in talking about monetary policy you say it will take 8 to ten hikes to get fed policy rates to neutral Jeff What do you see as the terminal rate and why is the market not there So right now we need to make a big distinction between what the terminal rate is Versus equilibrium rates So if we look at a terminal rate of we add 200 basis points or more compared to where we are right now you get to a range in between the two and a half to even three or something along those lines The terminal rates the way I look at it you want to look at where normal GDP is you want to look at where potential growth is and you want to look at where your inflation target is Look at all of that together The market is saying not just in the U.S. across the board the more you do right now the more the economy is going to struggle up ahead So the more unlikely you're going to satisfy the hikes you have in your forecast horizon for next year and beyond I look at New Zealand heading into next year So I'm heading into tomorrow There are about to hide markets don't think they can get to 2.6% which is probably one of the highest terminal rates within G ten right now because they think the economy is going to slow aggressively for this year so we can forget about tightening for next year and beyond I think that's the main concern The more you do right now the less you're going to be able to do further down the line One of the great bets forward in a 2022 that seems to be 1617 months long this year is the bet on the Pacific Rim is a general statement Do you buy it that we're going to see a real GDP and productivity pop in the Pacific Rim The southern half the F so ASEAN Australia borders are reopening I think that's where you're going to get the growth impetus and front Now China is an anchoring situation right now So domestically we are going to get more stimulus coming through I think that much has been signaled already And as the NPC opens in two weeks time we're going to see more positive headlines on coming through And I think there is value in certain sectors within the Chinese equity markets That's where you want to be risk on and the sort of disconnected from the geopolitics right now But what a real boost for global services traders is unlocking about $200 billion China's services deficit which can lift the global economy It will generate some supply issues but I think that's kind of a problem that we would welcome at this point But I don't think China is going to move away from dynamic zero in terms of COVID right now So I think that's the missing element But some parts of Asia and so some parts of apac searching is where you want to capture the growth for the time being Korea in particular hiking rates already more to come from other countries Jeff as always awesome from you sir It's going to catch up Jeff you there of BNY Mellon the prime minister Tom just as you and I were talking about it inconceivable for a major international sport event to happen in Russia There's also inconceivable that the tats would win and look where that went I mean that was quite a turnaround wasn't it That was quite a turnaround It was even for someone that doesn't understand the beautiful game I think the word you used in a text to me over the weekend was just epic Tom It was epic I like the guy from Sweden I know you're a big fan Flagged him earlier in the game with my vast knowledge and boy Did he get 21 years old John I mean you know he looked like you out there Not quite I can't quite run like that anymore Tom As I once was Full disclosure because we're fair and balanced I never No I never read like that ever ever It's okay and Kenny lodge Jonathan farrow Lisa back with us tomorrow some really strong language from the prime minister this morning The Russian action amounts to a renewed invasion of Ukraine Now are the actions the sanctions from the British prime minister proportional with the language And do we hear the same language from the administration here in the United States a little bit later They're the questions we need to be asking from New York This is Bloomberg Now the latest news from New York City and around the world here's Michael Barr Tom Kaley.

Jeff Federal Reserve China John Pacific Rim Europe BNY Mellon prime minister Tom UK NPC New Zealand U.S. Australia Korea
"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:43 min | 10 months ago

"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Inflation in the second half before they do such an aggressive move Well speaking of aggressive moves obviously the west is reacting to what we saw from that Vladimir Putin over the long weekend We're now hearing from the UK's Boris Johnson that the UK will sanction 5 Russian banks as well as individuals When we look at the potential implications for the fixed income market of this geopolitical crisis Leslie and specifically the energy complex what's the read through into break evens inflation expectations and therefore monetary policy ultimately Well you know it's interesting because if you look at things like the 5 year 5 year forward swap it's like a 2.3% Even if you look at the break even today we're not seeing this big rise in inflation expectations I think it's a component but I don't think it's going to be a driver And I don't think it's going to alter necessarily the fed's path which we do believe will be around 5 or 8 times by the end of the year It'll probably be a big gradual 25 with the data that we know right now But I don't think this is going to have a knee jerk reaction when the fed has to become even more hawkish because we're seeing rise in energy prices All right so there's obviously the break it evens component Leslie There's also the real yields component Do we reach positive territory Well they stay negative Well he was listening I think 5 year real yields are very negative I mean the ten year we've had a correction with we're down negative rate 50 right now We probably can go to plus or -20 but that 5 year real yield has remained strong in the negative And even though nominal yields in the 5 year side it got almost a 2% which by the way we don't think it's going to give that much higher However we do think those break-even inflation expectations are going to fall from that 2.9 level that we see right now Probably closer to that 5 year 5 year swap of about 2.3 So we are expecting really else to rise Whether or not they turn positive this year is a question mark but there could be close to it Leslie thank you for being with us What a busy morning for everybody Leslie falconio there of UBS global wealth management Right now happening right now in the UK the prime minister Boris Johnson addressing parliament saying Tom very early in this address that Russian action is what he calls a renewed invasion of Ukraine He's sanctioned 5 Russian banks sanctions on Russian banks and he's calling this Tom the first tranche of sanctions which implies obviously time There's more to come We're going to stop here because this is important Let me know what the clock is Brad when you can John I want you to explain to our American audience and this folks goes to my first time at harrods I was in the watch store in an oligarch walked in with some good you know ginormous fancy watch and said what's this worth and the woman in bed and eyelash and said a $150,000 John explain the Russian money in London I don't think he's lost on a global audience term There's a big Russian presence in London There's a big Russian presence in London property more specifically And there's a big Russian presence in some UK businesses as well You mentioned a football club Chelsea being an obvious one Somehow this rolls out how it plays out remains to be seen But for the prime minister call it the first tranche of sanctions certainly implies there's more to come Certainly implies more serious sanctions could still be to come And when they use that language I think that language Tom is so so important To call Russian action a renewed invasion of Ukraine what remains to be seen a little bit later if we hear from the president directly is whether he uses exactly the same words If he does Tom then you've got to wonder what kind of sanctions follow How did our reporting but I really wondered does President Biden speak to the nation this evening I don't know John I mean I don't know if that was warranted I'm sure it's under discussion with Ron klain and others at The White House But I would certainly say as you see mister starmer I believe it is John of labor speaking here of the sanctions but I would say John it's all bilateral or allied effort is the focus of Bloomberg today politically Well certainly some have been very united But on that particular question I think we've got to see if there is unity Yeah Whether you members with the UK with all NATO members including the United States on that particular question Do the actions of Russia over the weekend constitute an invasion a renewed invasion of the words of the prime minister And if they do where are these swift sphere united sanctions that secretary blinken is repeatedly promised Tom over the last few weeks There has been a hesitancy from this administration over the last 24 hours to call it what the prime minister just called it Johnson of Britain Putin's venture in Ukraine must fail Futures down a tenth of 1% on the S&P on the NASDAQ down a half of 1% From New York City throughout audience worldwide with crude very close to 100 earlier today a 99 handle on parent we back away On WTI Just shorter 94 from New York this is Bloomberg Now the latest news from New York City and around the world here's Michael Barr Tom Kaley John.

Leslie Boris Johnson UK Leslie falconio Tom fed Vladimir Putin John Ukraine London UBS President Biden Ron klain mister starmer Brad football united sanctions
"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:17 min | 10 months ago

"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Now the latest news from New York City and around the world here's Michael Barr Tom Kaley John as you just mentioned The White House is expected to announce significant sanctions against Russia today This after Vladimir Putin ordered troops into two Russian controlled separatist regions in eastern Ukraine that he recognized as independent After an emergency meeting with ministers and officials British prime minister Boris Johnson announced the UK is also slapping sanctions on Russia We will immediately institute package of economic sanctions which I think is people would expect obviously not just identities in Donbass and Uganda and Donetsk But in Russia itself targeting Russian economic interests as hard as we can During last night's emergency UN Security Council meeting Russian ambassador Vasily nabin Zia through translator blamed the west for egging Ukraine on and inflaming the situation Well for the last few weeks already whipping up unfounded panic around the allegedly impending Russian invasion of Ukraine our western colleagues have been unashamedly cramming weapons into the country Russian ambassador de benzia says they remain open to diplomacy for a solution Jurors are now deliberating federal hate crime charges against the men convicted of killing him out Aubrey During closing arguments prosecutors said Travis and Gregory mcmichael and their neighbor William Bryant had a history of using racial slurs against blacks Two years ago they followed Aubrey as he jogged through their Brunswick Georgia area neighborhood shooting and killing Aubrey in the street defense attorneys argue that the men were simply acting as concerned neighbors worried about recent break ins Closing arguments are expected today in the federal trial of the three former Minneapolis police officers who were with Derek Chauvin on the day he murdered George Floyd the three officers are charged with depriving Floyd of the civil rights Queen Elizabeth continues to isolate at Windsor Castle after her COVID diagnosis Buckingham Palace says she is experiencing mild cold like symptoms the queen turns 96 in April Live from the Bloomberg and interactive broker studios This is global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake Powered by more than 2700 journalists.

Michael Barr Tom Kaley John Russia Ukraine Donbass Russian ambassador Vasily nabi Aubrey de benzia Vladimir Putin Boris Johnson Donetsk Gregory mcmichael William Bryant White House New York City UN Security Council Uganda UK Derek Chauvin George Floyd
"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:15 min | 10 months ago

"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Is Bloomberg Now with the latest news from New York City and around the world here's Michael Barr Tom Kaley John Russia and Belarus began their largest joint military drills in years today Russia has repeatedly denied it plans to invade Ukraine after the U.S. and its NATO allies warned of a build up of about 130,000 Russian troops near the border NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said he has written to Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov to offer more talks To Russia But we must be prepared for the worst While remaining strongly committed to finding a political solution NATO Jens Stoltenberg spoke at a joint news conference in Brussels today with UK prime minister Boris Johnson Our intelligence I'm afraid to say remains grim and we're seeing the massing of huge numbers of tactical battalion groups potential groups on the borders of Ukraine prime minister Johnson says he did not believe Russian president Vladimir Putin had made a final decision on whether to send troops over into Ukraine More older people ages 65 and up are developing new conditions after they have COVID Doctor Ben Cohen is the lead author of a study published in the BMJ that found a third had new symptoms within 30 to a hundred days after the infection The most frequent was respiratory There was large incidence of individuals that had ongoing cough shortness of breath and exercise intolerance progressing all the way up to respiratory failure and those that were seriously ill in the ICU Doctor Cohen says the findings can help doctors anticipate future health complications and improve treatment planet One month after actor and comedian Bob Saget was found dead in an Orlando hotel room as grieving family announced that he died from head trauma Saget's family said authorities determined that he accidentally hit the back of his head on something thought nothing of it and went to sleep Figure skater Nathan Chen and snowboarder Chloe Kim of the U.S. won medals gold at the Beijing Olympics Live in the Bloomberg interactive broker studios global news 24.

Jens Stoltenberg NATO Michael Barr Tom Kaley John Russia Ukraine Sergei Lavrov minister Johnson Belarus Bloomberg Boris Johnson New York City Ben Cohen Brussels Vladimir Putin U.S. UK cough ICU Bob Saget Cohen
"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:54 min | 1 year ago

"michael barr tom kaley" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"From New York City and around the world here's Michael Barr Tom Kaley John Moore Americans can get an extra dose of a COVID vaccine a month after recommending boosters for some who got the Pfizer's shots now the CDC is recommending Moderna and Johnson & Johnson boosters for certain groups as well as mixing and matching vaccines CDC director doctor Rochelle Walensky spoke to ABC News this morning There may be people who have a preference for whatever reason to get something else We would encourage them to discuss it with their physician or pharmacist to come to the CDC website And that option is there too And then finally if the vaccine you originally got is not available to you for whatever reason The pharmacy you're visiting doesn't have it that day It is just fine to get a different one as well Doctor walensky says coming in the next few weeks could be a decision on a COVID vaccine for kids ages 5 to 11 The State Department says video of the Haitian gang leader behind the kidnapping of an American missionaries appears to be legitimate In the video the gang leader threatens to kill the hostages if his demands aren't met He wants $17 million for the 17 captives Western showalter is with Ohio Christian aid ministries who is the mission who the missionaries work for he is holding out hope These families are from Amish and Mennonite and other conservative anabaptist communities in Wisconsin Ohio Michigan Tennessee Pennsylvania Oregon and Ontario Canada Western showalter with Ohio Christian aid ministries investigators are still combing through a Florida swamp looking for more evidence after the discovery of human remains now confirmed to be those of Brian laundry the only person of interest in the murder of Gabby potato the FBI used dental records to confirm the remains found Wednesday in Florida's Carlton nature reserve our laundries Live from the.

CDC Michael Barr Tom Kaley Rochelle Walensky John Moore walensky Moderna Ohio Christian aid ministries Johnson & Johnson Pfizer ABC News Western showalter New York City State Department Brian laundry Wisconsin Tennessee Ohio Pennsylvania Michigan