40 Burst results for "Mckee"
Monitor Show 12:00 10-04-2023 12:00
"Looking for a convenient place to get that big fitness energy? It's Planet Fitness. Now through October 13th, you can join for just one dollar down, ten dollars a month. We've got over 2 ,400 locations with most open 24 hours. Join now to enjoy free fitness training and equipment for every workout. Whether you're new to a gym or a fitness pro, the judgment -free zone is the place for you. Join Planet Fitness today for one dollar down, ten dollars a month, no commitment. Cancel anytime. Deal ends October 13th. See Home Club for details. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. All right, coming up in this hour, we're going to check in with Michael McKee, Bloomberg's International Economics and Policy correspondent. Looks like we got kind of yield stabilizing here that's pushing markets higher, so we'll get his look outlook on the economy. Margie Battelle is going to join us as well. Senior Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments. We're going to get her market call. Then our C -suite conversation of the day, Brian Fairbank, CEO of a company by the name of Trex. T -R -E -X discusses the home building business. We need more homes, presumably. Steve Rappaport joins us right now. We're going to get a Bloomberg Business Flash. Kick everything off. Good morning or good afternoon. We check the markets all day long here at Bloomberg.
Fresh update on "mckee" discussed on The Big Take
"Tune and in to the you're Bloomberg listening Law to Show every weeknight Broadcasting at 24 10 p .m. hours Law Wall a Street Show. It is day of on a time. at strike. bloomberg lot .com I'm Seventy June and -five the the thousand U Bloomberg .S. Kaiser Permanente workers walked off the job today in multiple states in what is gearing up to be the largest health care strike in U .S. history. Meanwhile the United Auto Workers strike is in its 20th day. New York Governor Kathy Hochul says her state is feeling the impact of the UAW strike. She joined workers on the picket lines in Rockland County calling on four General Motors and Stellantis to offer fair contracts. They want good wages, they want benefits and I encourage the leaders of the auto companies to stay at the table, get back to the table and roll up their sleeves the and job get done. House Republicans are scrambling to find a new speaker after Kevin McCarthy was voted out of the roll this week. Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana both launched their bids on Wednesday. Oklahoma Congressman Kevin Hearn is also considered to be a likely contender. Former President Trump has left New York City as day three of his civil fraud trial moves on. Trump is accused by New York Attorney General Letitia James of inflating his net worth in order to get more favorable loans from banks. The Biden administration is canceling $9 billion in student loan debt for 125 ,000 borrowers. Lisa Taylor reports. While speaking from the White House, President Biden said the relief is changing the lives of Americans and is good for the economy. Forgiveness applies to borrowers who have been in an income -driven repayment plan and public service loan forgiveness program. The comes move just days after federal student loan payments restarted after a three -year pause due to the COVID -19 study published in the journal Nature Mental Health. Researchers found that those who experienced discrimination their had appetite stimulated and increased cravings for less healthy Republicans to expel Congressman Matt Gaetz. Mark Mayfield reports. In an op -ed for the Post Washington on Tuesday, Gaetz called Gaetz anti -Republican and claimed he was engaging in childish behavior and has become actively destructive to the conservative movement. Gingrich said Gaetz should be expelled from the House Republican Conference for his motion to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. I'm Mark Mayfield. The CDC says it's no longer distributing COVID -19 vaccine cards. There was a time when you practically couldn't leave home without it. It had to be shown at airports, Broadway theaters, and restaurants in many cities during the height of the COVID pandemic. International travelers no longer have to show their COVID vaccine cards when arriving from other countries. But the CDC says if you're leaving the U .S., you should check what the are rules wherever you're going. New York Governor Kathy Hochul is outlining major steps the state is taking to expand the legal cannabis market while cracking down on the illegal trade. Liz Warner reports. The governor announced hundreds of licenses are now being made available to those interested in growing, processing, distributing, also noted due to aggressive enforcement and increased penalties. The state has now seized more than 8 ,500 pounds of illicit product with an estimated value of more than 42 million. She also said New York's legal cannabis market is now poised to be one of the largest in the world ultimately generating hundreds of millions in revenue all while creating thousands of jobs, promoting small business growth, ensuring product quality and maintaining consumer safety. The 2030 World Cup will be played in six countries across three continents. Morocco, Spain and Portugal will be the official co -hosts of the tournament. Meanwhile FIFA awarded the three opening matches to Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay in honor of the 100th anniversary of the World Cup. I'm Brian Schuck. And I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. Let's check this hour's top business stories and the markets. We begin with the US labor market Payroll servicer ADP says American firms added the fewest number of jobs in September since 2021 and pay growth slowed Bloomberg's Michael McKee looks ahead to the non -farm payrolls on Friday Over the past year ADP has overstated the private sector job creation seven out of the 12 months so if that follows then we will have an unusually weak payrolls report on Friday but hard to square with what we saw from the ISM manufacturing numbers because ISM went positive and ADP says we lost 12 ,000 jobs Bloomberg's Michael McKee additionally 13 2 ,000 jobs were lost in trade and transportation and another 32 ,000 were lost and business services in other news some republican leaders are throwing their names into the hat for house speaker after Kevin McCarthy was ousted yesterday republican Steve Scalise is officially running and hardline republican representative Jim Jordan also wants the job questions remain from aid to Ukraine to averting a government shutdown in a little more than six weeks here's Bloomberg's Jonathan Tomari congress can't do anything or the house at least can't do anything until they elect a speaker so we're going to face some uncertain period of time here where they're basically doing no work other than trying to find a leader and then once they do elect a leader the republican conference has made clear they don't want to compromise with by just kicking out their own speaker the next person who takes the job is going to face a lot of pressure not to compromise and especially so soon after they assume the speakership will they really want their first big act as the leader to be a deal with Democrats after seeing the reaction from their own party just now the house will vote october 11th well opening statements began today in the fraud trial of ftx founder sam bankman freed a focal point was of alameda research a hedge fund affiliated with ftx she's also bankman freed's former girlfriend here's bloomberg shanali bassett Caroline Ellison is a key figure for both the prosecution and the defense when you look at the defense they had said that sam bankman freed guided caroline ellison to do more to protect alameda as a shareholder of alameda when the crypto crash was starting to arise his worries about crypto going south except instead of just upward as it had before that time and so this idea that porous management according to the defense is not intentional fraud and that that will have to be proven here in court for mister bankman freedom south that's one big shanali bassett let's check the markets briefly the hanxing index is up a third of a percent big gains in tokyo the nike advancing 1 .2 percent global news brought to you by 2700 journalists in 120 countries in hong kong this is bloomberg you're listening to the big take podcast on bloomberg today on the big take does buying a house need to be this hard for generations home ownership has been a central part of the american dream but for many people it still remains out of reach this despite government programs and institutions created to help people become homeowners bloomberg reporters heather pearlberg and noah boo higher took with a closer look at one of them a system of banks called the federal home loan banks they found that even though these institutions have billions of dollars to lend many home buyers still struggle to approved for a mortgage heather and noah spoke to home buyers across the country i did give up i got to the point where this is not going to work we're not going to get no house loan you the money thanks you know they don't really tell you what you need to do or try help you anyway more or just like
Monitor Show 14:00 09-20-2023 14:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. Trend cruising speed. We'll get the forecast from the Federal Reserve in about 20 seconds time alongside that Fed decision. Going into it, the price action looks like this on the S &P 500, positive by 0 .2%. On the NASDAQ, almost totally unchanged. To the bond market, yields on a two -year, shaping up as follows, near, in and around 5 % on a two -year in America, 5 .05%. Mike McKee has the decision. This is the very definition of a unanimous hawkish pause. The Fed leaves rates today in the range of five and a quarter to five and a half percent while saying growth is solid and inflation elevated, so hire for longer. Policymakers leave another rate move on the table for this year and take two reductions off the table for the next two years. The statement once again discusses, quote, the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate. And the dot plot shows that 12 members of the Open Market Committee still believes they will raise rates by another 25 basis points this year. The high dot at six and a quarter percent comes out of the dot plot with St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard's retirement. For 2024, the committee now sees a median effective Fed funds rate of 5 .1%, up 50 basis points from their June projection. And for 2025, 3 .9%, up from 3 .4 % in June. The long -run neutral rate is unchanged at two and a half percent, although the central tendency range moves up to 3 .3 % from 2 .8, and the dots show seven members think that the neutral is higher than two and a half.
Fresh update on "mckee" discussed on Bloomberg Markets
"That helps kind of set a base case and when you're looking at the tape that we're seeing where people are either buying beaten down stocks or putting on a bit more risk those places are the that people immediately look to I remember before Tesla was added to the S &P 500 that was where a lot of money managers generating were alpha so they were getting exposure to Tesla to kind of slap that onto their general returns so it could be kind of just putting money to work that's one news leg going into earning season and again you're looking at Tesla right now at 257 bucks was trading close to 300 back in July when markets were on their way to their recent peaks so could be a rotation obviously also you do have kind of oil and everything shaking out within the energy space the oil prices are coming down so that's no good for Tesla right on the other hand Ford ticker is F said that it's electric f -150 pickup sales dropped 46 percent in in the third quarter they said it was because it shut its factory for expansion and delayed the delivery trucks of for quality checks and we knew that was happening so this isn't necessarily a surprise it's just a big number see people love the Ford f -150 lightning stunt I know one person who loves the Ford f -150 lightning but are the better than are the typical Ford f -150 owners out there are they clamoring to go electric or are they going grudgingly you know I I don't know if they are a monolith like that yeah I think there's probably a diversity of opinion and I would be interested to see a survey because I don't actually know answer the you're out in Ohio for two days well and I also am a lover of the f -150 I owned the first generation Raptor and the reason I didn't buy the second gen is because the first one I loved had a 6 .2 liter v8 then they went to the EcoBoost which is like a three and a half liter v6 with I'm not into it but but because I believed before batteries there's no replacement for displacement of course but now I think differently because if you drive an electric vehicle that's pretty darn good replacement all right there you go Bailey Lipschultz thanks so much for joining us Bailey covers the quities for Bloomberg News give us the update on these markets and here's my my headline of the day FIFA World Cup in 2030 to be hosted by Morocco Portugal and Spain that's pretty good that's a cool part of the world I would I'd go check out him oh I love going to Portugal I would love to go around to that never been to Morocco but I'd like to get they just had a recent horrible tragedy in Marrakesh yep but yeah that would be awesome I would love to go to if I if I if I could sit through an entire soccer game yeah it's a challenge I would definitely do that exactly all right let's check in with Michael McKee we can sit through talking to Michael McKee can't we Michael McKee he covers all the topics Bloomberg for I'm seeing yields pull back a little bit here today Michael is this just kind of a market timing thing is there anything really fundamentally behind it doesn't seem to be anything necessarily fundamentally behind it but there hasn't been a an agreed -upon fundamental reason for rates run up right in rates either there seem to be sort of two working well hire for longer right well that's one of the theories that we're seeing people react to the Fed and finally believe the Fed the Fed hadn't done anything so long enough but they changed the dot plot took them long enough they did change the dot plot and maybe that was the convincing factor but the point is is the Fed's been saying it forever and people didn't move up and there's also the idea that perhaps the issuance treasury at a time when the Fed has stepped out of the market is going to be causing some down concern the road and and that's pushing up prices are pushing prices prices down and yields up and it's it's hard to divine what which one of those things is probably right probably has more to do with of the Fed but it does seem to be sort of just a the market searching for a proper price in this environment we are seeing at the long end 10 -year note yields we're seeing a term premium come back positive which we haven't seen in years and can you put up finger on exactly what they're worried about so that's a lot of things out there right now that's the wire rates rising you know and we've seen this incredible rise in rates across the the curve today we're seeing rates come back down a little bit the 10 -year I think was getting closer to 49 right and we're looking at 473 right now so why are they coming down I thought two reasons maybe I saw the Janet Yellen headline last night and clicked on it holy camoly Janet Yellen's weighing in on higher for longer but then I read the details and it seemed like Janet Yellen's not really weighing in on it she just says she said I don't know yeah exactly although oh when I heard Tom mention it like seven times on surveillance this morning I thought maybe it is important you know the other thing I the other thing I heard on surveillance was you breaking the ADP numbers so that's the employment report that is not really so helpful in forecasting non on farm payrolls but we were looking for an additional hundred fifty thousand jobs in the survey and we only got eighty nine thousand yeah and historically obviously ADP does not match up well with non -farm payrolls but for the last I think five six months in a row ADP ADP measures private sector payroll so I you take got to the take government part out but ADP has come in higher than the non -farm payrolls private private sector number so if ADP is at eighty nine and the trend continues obviously you're going to have a bad report on Friday I think that maybe have played into a little bit of the psychology and little a bit with the ISM services not being a blowout number that the people may have been expecting for that and so couple that with perhaps a little exhaustion of the markets and a chance to consolidate and they're doing that I think it gets harder and harder to put explanations on things the closer you get to a defining event which should be Friday the jobs report yep so I think today tomorrow won't tell us a whole lot 831 I'll see you Friday we'll talk about it then and we're gonna get it for a moment we thought well for a couple weeks we thought we may not get that's right the BLS shut down workers could be just yep and sipping on a cocktail but they're gonna they had to have to work always servants work all right ISM services data came out today I mean I guess the headline it's still positive 53 .6 although it's lower than last month but still positive but the ISM new orders came in really really weak relative to last month ISM data what do you takeaways from any of that today well you understand the way the ISM works is it's a month -to -month comparison okay rather than a sort of linear comparison so yes it means that new orders were much slower last month and and I think that's why part of the reason that the
Monitor Show 15:00 09-14-2023 15:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context. And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. But I'm sorry that you missed the shows, at least we have the economic benefits of them. Kaylee, great to spend time with you this hour. We'll meet you later on Balance of Power. Our Bloomberg Business Week starts right now. I'm Tim Stanavec on Bloomberg Radio. Hello, hello, hello, everyone. Good afternoon. Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio streaming on YouTube and Bloomberg Originals, it's Thursday, September 14th, 2023. I'm Tim Stanavec along with my co -host, Bloomberg TV correspondent, Simone Foxman, in for Carol Masser once again this afternoon. Simone Stocks, look at this. The Dow above 4 ,500 right now, excuse me, the S &P 500 above 4 ,500 right now, up more than nine -tenths of 1%. Well, you know, we're back to where we were really at the start of the month. So I don't know that it really considers, we should consider this a huge turnaround in optimism, but hey, it's a green day, right? Yeah, it really is. There's strong economic reports earlier this morning reviving speculation that the Fed is going to really engineer a soft landing, even if it keeps interest rates higher for longer. We're going to have more on that with Abigail Doolittle and Michael McKee in just a few minutes. And then we got a big guest today. I'm so excited. You really are. I was a former hedge fund reporter, so this is so exciting to me. Legendary short seller and longtime China bear, Jim Cheney.
Fresh update on "mckee" discussed on Bloomberg Markets
"24. urn That's .com a urn .schemas You So capital we're talking plan. know, billions, the -microsoft So I'm big thing guessing is, the -com can you just dude. fix next plan Penn Station? So, um, urn will be Can you double do that, that? .schemas -microsoft tens of True. billions at least. of Can you make Penn dollars. Station -com That's urn Right. kind of the So, like .schemas -microsoft -com 24 hours a day. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Markets. With Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. We got a lot of green on the screen here, but the volume is light. We underestimate constantly the strength of the U consumer. .S. This is a market that's much more optimistic or bullish than maybe central bankers are. Breaking Market News. An insight from experts. Bloomberg There's still some concern out there in the market that there is room for things to deteriorate a little bit more than what they're indicating. As small and medium sized businesses struggle, they don't present as much competition. The supply chain has still got dislocations globally and here in the U .S. This is Bloomberg Markets. With Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Radio. All right, coming up in this hour, we're gonna check in with Michael McKee Bloomberg's International Economics and Policy correspondent. Looks like we got kind of yields stabilizing here that's pushing markets higher. So we'll get his outlook on the economy. Markie Patel is going to join us as well. Senior Portfolio Manager at AllSpring
Monitor Show 07:00 09-13-2023 07:00
"With Bloomberg, you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, behind your EV battery's environmental impact, behind sand, yeah, sand, you get context, and context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg .com to get context. Use Bloomberg Radio. Us along with many in the street, we're looking for a slowdown and looking for a recession this year. It just hasn't manifested. It's still a very strong labor market. The U .S. economy is far from robust. It's still in positive territory, absolutely, but the momentum seems to be shifting to the downside. I think the consumer is incredibly stretched right now. I think the reaction function of investors is to get out quick if the data starts to deteriorate. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. The most important data point of the month coming right up. Live from New York City this morning. Good morning, good morning from our audience worldwide. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on TV and radio alongside Tom Kean and Lisa Abramowitz. I'm Jonathan Farrow. Your equity market on the S &P slightly negative by 0 .1 % on the S &P 500. That data is 90 minutes away. TK, that data, U .S. CPI. It's going to be nominal data there, the core number, and then on top of it the inflation number. We studied it all. We'll give you Michael McKee's treatment here at 8 .30. Just printing moments ago, the 10 -year real yield, John, pops up to a 1 .96%. That's a two basis point move here, and that's underlying churn here between nominal analysis and real analysis. We'll do that at 8 .30. And the difference, Tom, between core and headline within the data itself. Core, we're making progress. Headline, do we have a problem? Lisa, Brent Crude, 92 .65, WTI, 89 .50. There's a big debate. Does headline matter? If you do see a pop up.
Fresh update on "mckee" discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York - Recording Feed
"Looking for a convenient place to get that big fitness energy? It's Planet Fitness. Now through October 13th, you can join for just one dollar down, ten dollars a month. We've got over 2,400 locations with most open 24 hours. Join now to enjoy free fitness training and equipment for every workout. Whether you're new to a gym or a fitness pro, the judgment-free zone is the place for you. Join Planet Fitness today for one dollar down, ten dollars a month, no commitment. Cancel anytime. Deal ends October 13th. See Home Club for details. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. All right, coming up in this hour, we're going to check in with Michael McKee, Bloomberg's International Economics and Policy correspondent. Looks like we got kind of yield stabilizing here that's pushing markets higher, so we'll get his look outlook on the economy. Margie Battelle is going to join us as well. Senior Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments. We're going to get her market call. Then our C-suite conversation of the day, Brian Fairbank, CEO of a company by the name of Trex. T-R-E-X discusses the home building business. We need more homes, presumably. Steve Rappaport joins us right now. We're going to get a Bloomberg Business Flash. Kick everything off. Good morning or good afternoon. We check the markets all day long here at Bloomberg.
Monitor Show 12:00 09-10-2023 12:00
"Investment advisors switch to interactive brokers for lowest cost global trading and turnkey custody solutions. No ticket charges and no conflicts of your interests at ibkr .com slash ria. To Bloomberg's Michael McKee. And that does it for this episode of Bloomberg Best, I'm Justin Milliner. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.
Fresh update on "mckee" discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
"The previous mentioned guest it, Atlanta Fed GDP now 4 .9%, at Citi we're tracking growth in the third quarter at 3 .2%, so just empirically we are accelerating in the third quarter. I'm not sure how long that lasts for, I'm not sure that that's sustainable, but that's going to add some inflationary pressure to the economy. It's how we started the program this morning Andrew, we were talking about risk cutting both ways, we're coming into Q4 and we're talking about a consumer -led slowdown potentially, but also same at the time simultaneously having a conversation about the potential to reaccelerate. Can we talk about the former a little bit more? I know your base case case is the latter, we get one more hike from November, Fed meeting because of the risk of that playing out, but just to slow down, do you why not lend too much weight to the risk of a consumer -led slowdown given what's happened with energy recently, what's happening with student repayments, where rates are, why do you not lend too much weight to that story? I think the economy will eventually slow down, I don't see it from the consumer now, and I don't see it from the consumer because we just don't see it, it's not there in the data, you see not only services consumption that's continued to hold up, but we're getting stronger goods consumption, people are buying autos, people are buying high houses, even at higher mortgage rates, even at higher prices, so there's a lot of strength in that consumer. Andrew, sit tight, it's timed it perfectly, the ADP jobs report about to drop in a couple of seconds time, the estimate 150 ,000, to bring you that economic data, let's cross over to Mike Mckee. Good morning guys, we get a number that is a a lot lower than people anticipated, just 89 ,000 jobs created in September according to the folks at automatic data processing, and you'll pay up 5 .9 percent, that's a drop, so it looks like at this point a weaker than expected jobs report could be a possibility, we always have to add that could be a disclaimer when you're talking about ADP and its relationship to the government payrolls number, now remember these are private sector jobs sector goods producing 8 ,000 jobs manufacturing ADP says loses 12 thousand jobs, construction gains 16 ,000 and only 81 ,000 jobs in service providers, leisure and hospitality leads that with 92 ,000 but we see 32 ,000 in professional and business services decline, now remember yesterday we got that jolt report that showed a big big rise in job openings in August for professional and business services so there are some disjointed data going around here, one last thing the change in establishment size small businesses 95 ,000 additional jobs, large businesses lose 83 ,000 jobs, pay growth slowed, job stayers up 5 .9%, job changers 9 % and remember the quits didn't move so people are still looking for other jobs expecting to get paid more so bottom line 89 ,000 jobs were created according to ADP we'll see how that affects everybody's forecast for Friday might Mike stay close we'll get into the data ahead of Friday as well this move this data goes against the grain better than expected data Monday Tuesday downsides of price Wednesday and this is the move in a bond market yields lower treasuries rally on a 10 -year yield we're down about five or six basis points to 473 it is 817 a .m. Eastern time and we've already had a 15 basis point trading range on a u .s. 10 -year year old much higher a little bit earlier earlier were pushing 490 and now we're back down to 470 something on a 30 -year yields were through 5 % earlier on this morning then back down to about 487 down about six basis points there off the back of that move equity spiking higher near session highs positive by about 0 .3 % on the s &p 500 and the dollar which has been absolutely salutely dominating the bulk of g10 with the exception of the japanese yen in the last 24 hours shown some weakness now against the euro 105 17 that currency pair positive by let's call it 0 .5 % tom that currency pair near session highs much more than normal john info she just simply look at the blinky blinky of the bloomberg launch pad the red and the green the amber on the screen john there's a lot of action there there's people there's people adjusting adjusting where we yeah downside surprise 89 000 on atp the estimate 150 looking head ahead to payrolls this is the number we're looking for 170 the previous number 187 to mckee's point after a number like that are we going to see some upgrades to the forecast or some downgrades going into friday andrew holland horse's city with us around the table andrew your reaction to that what would you expect on friday now based on this does change it anything for you it doesn't change anything i think just look at the scatter plot of adp versus nfp there's not a high correlation between the two so it's a big if if we get this number if we get this number though like mike mckee said it's big a if but if we get this number for payrolls on friday on this is goldilocks right around a hundred thousand per month that's about what the population growth can sustain um that would be a very sustainable so growth so if we see this number um that would be a goldilocks economy the heavyweight janet yellen i was out yesterday with some select comments that i'm sure your team saw as well there's another economist michael tyson who has a very famous quote about getting punched in the everybody's got a plan here how does the fed that you mean with the the trauma that we've seen the last week in the bond market i'm sorry there's a point here where the fed put comes back into place are we anywhere near where fed the looks at the financial trauma and says we got to adapt so remember what the fed is trying to do here is to raise interest rates and slow the economy they've raised policy rates but really what controls the economy a rates mortgage corporate borrowing rates those are going to dependent be dependent on the 10 -year yield so the fact that tenure yields are i think is probably consistent with what the fed is trying to achieve now like john was talking about earlier being in a 15 basis point trading range over the course of an hour or so in the day it is probably not the level of volatility the fed officials would like to see it so they're watching this as you know fed officials government officials always tell us they're watching um... and they'll be watching for do we see signs of liquidity stress that are emerging on if you saw those type of things then yes i think you could think about you know would the fed actually react to this and at first it would be with their rhetoric saying that you know maybe treasury yields have moved too far but i think we're still away from that point um... treasury yield curve is still inverted we still have ten year yields below to your yield and they've come up a lot we're not as inverted as we were on if you're not imminently looking at a recession not staring down a recession uh... it's not clear why that yield curve needs to be as inverted as was it a number of people have come on the show have said that a lot of the move in yields has not been fundamentally justified do you disagree do you think that fundamentally where the yield is currently on the ten year treasury and the thirty year treasury is completely justified and compensating you for inflation i think it depends on what you mean by fundamentals uh... but if you're including in those fundamentals the fact that we're running large deficits there's more treasury supply that's coming to the market so some people would call that a technical but i would say that is a fundamental structural part of u s economic backdrop right now uh... and along with that we're running higher inflation and that you you're just talking about this earlier there if we're running inflation that's above four percent still by a lot of measures it's not that surprising to see treasury yields above four percent you need that you'll just to be compensated for the inflation that we're running do you think this function helps the fed's cause i would not say that it helps the fed's cause i don't know if it helps anyone's cause uh... right now on you know the the developments it it does raise questions about you know whether we're going to be in another shutdown november seventeenth uh... and you saw markets that were trading that you saw markets that priced out some of the probability of a fed hike in november i think what the fed wants here is for the government to stay open which would allow them to respond to the economic data now what's going on and that is a fantastic answer well well played very diplomatic you use my favorite phrase in the whole of global finance from policy makers we're watching this that's trade and we often ask on this program what does that mean what on earth does that mean if they say we're watching this means they have a bloomberg you
Monitor Show 15:00 09-09-2023 15:00
"Still a little bit above pre -pandemic levels, but getting closer around three and a half percent versus around three percent or so. And medium and longer term inflation expectations are basically where they were before the pandemic. That's John Williams, the president of the New York Fed, speaking exclusively to Bloomberg's Michael McKee. And that does it for this episode of Bloomberg Best. I'm Justin Milliner. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. World leaders at the G20 summit stopped short of condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Instead, they urged nations to respect each other's borders. In a closing statement issued Saturday, the leaders called for a just and durable peace in Ukraine. It added that any use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The G20 declaration also called on Russia to reinstate the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukraine to export grain to help global food supplies. President Biden says the U .S. will provide assistance to Morocco following a deadly earthquake if requested. More than a thousand people were killed and hundreds more injured by Friday's magnitude six point eight earthquake. Biden issued a statement from the G20 summit in India today, saying he is deeply saddened by the loss of life and devastation. The Senate will start moving a package of government funding bills next week. Trey Thomas reports. This comes as Congress is racing to avoid a shutdown at the end of this month. The last thing Americans need right now is a pointless government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he expects the first votes on Monday. The top Democrat urged Republicans in the House to follow the Senate's lead.
Monitor Show 19:00 09-08-2023 19:00
"At a bit, they're still a little bit above pre -pandemic levels, but getting closer around three and a half percent versus around three percent or so. And medium and longer term inflation expectations are basically where they were before the pandemic. That's John Williams, the president of the New York Fed, speaking exclusively to Bloomberg's Michael McKee. And that does it for this episode of Bloomberg Best. I'm Justin Milliner. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. A federal judge is denying a request from former White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, to move the Georgia election interference case against him to federal court. Meadows argued on the grounds that he was a federal officer when the alleged election crimes took place. The move was seen as a better path for Meadows to perhaps get the charges dismissed. Last month, Meadows, former President Trump and 17 others were charged with felony racketeering and conspiracy counts in the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. The manufacturer of a widely used abortion pill is asking the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court ruling that would restrict access to the drug. If a Pristones maker is requesting the nation's highest court take up the case next year, the so -called floating border wall, which is meant to deter illegal immigration into Texas, is not going anywhere. Lieutenant Chris Olivarez with the Texas Department of Public Safety says it's unbelievable that the White House is trying to stop something that's working. The federal government continues to attack Governor Abbott for stepping up and taking on the responsibility to secure the border. The Justice Department is suing to get the border buoys out of the Rio Grande. A federal judge agreed, but an appeals court ruled in the state's favor, keeping the status quo.
Monitor Show 13:00 08-31-2023 13:00
"You're listening to Bloomberg Digital Radio on the Bloomberg Business App. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Radio. Now, from our nation's capital, this is Bloomberg Sound On. President's approval ratings are very low. The majority of Americans think he shouldn't run at all. The four years Donald Trump was in the White House were totally different from the four years that Biden has been there. People are going to say, I was doing better then than I am now. Bloomberg Sound On. Politics, policy and perspective. From DC's top names. You've got to work to get people back to work, but not only that, but to higher paying jobs. The Russian threat is being degraded and unfortunately it's being degraded at the cost of Ukrainian lives, blood, treasure. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. We're not out of the woods yet. Welcome to the fastest show in politics. As economic data out this morning, remind us the Fed has not yet won the war on inflation as consumers just keep on spending. We'll look behind the numbers. A lot to cover today with Bloomberg economics editor Michael McKee who joins from New York and insights from Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics here in the nation's capital. The White House is pushing Republicans now in Congress to embrace the idea of a stop gap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown next week.
Monitor Show 19:00 08-27-2023 19:00
"It's Michael McKee at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming at the end of last week. Rashad, thank you so much for spending the hour with us here as we get DBA underway for a Monday. We're about an hour away from trading in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul. First trading day of the week in Asia and it's the first chance for markets to react to what we heard from the Fed Chairman himself. We'll give you the latest on the price action update markets as well. Hour 2, DBA. It starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Monday, August 28th in Hong Kong, Sunday, August 27th in New York. Coming up today, markets brace for volatility after key central bankers signal interest rates will likely stay higher for longer. U .S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visits China to expand business ties. Beijing cuts its stock trade tax and pledges to slow the pace of IPOs to boost Chinese markets. Three Marines are killed in a plane crash in Australia. Florida is bracing for a hurricane. Russia confirms the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin. And in sports, Saudi Arabia will try to enter the Champions League. I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have news and sports coming up. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. On Bloomberg 1130 New York. Bloomberg 99 .1 Washington D .C. Bloomberg 106 .1 Boston. Bloomberg 960 San Francisco. Sirius XM 119. And around the world on BloombergRadio .com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. It's a little past 8 in the morning in Tokyo. Trading will get underway in less than an hour, not only in Japanese equities but in U .S. sovereign debt as well. If you're joining from Japan or anywhere in the U .S.
Monitor Show 14:00 08-25-2023 14:00
"Not real when you put your mugshot out there. I guess maybe if they're smiling we know it's not real now that we've seen the contrast here. I'm so confused about so many things. Jeannie, thank you so much. Rick Davis as well. They're gonna join us later, by the way, on Balance of Power, our closers, our signature panel. So meet all of us later on today on Bloomberg TV. In the meantime, we bring Kaylee Lyons into the conversation. Coming up next, Hour 2 of Sound On starts right now. It's been there. People are going to say I was doing better then than I am now. Bloomberg Sound On. Politics, policy and perspective from DC's top names. You got to work to get people back to work, but not only that, but to higher paying jobs. The Russian threat is being degraded and unfortunately it's being degraded at the cost of Ukrainian lives, blood, treasure. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew and Kaylee Lyons on Bloomberg Radio. The is fight not over. Welcome to Hour 2 of Sound On as Jay Powell makes it clear in Jackson Hole they have not yet won the fight against inflation. More hikes could be coming and rates could stay higher for longer. But you knew that already. We'll talk about what we learned today with two important interviews that Bloomberg's Michael McKee will bring us live from Jackson Hole this hour. Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester with analysis from Bloomberg Fed expert Kate Davidson. We've got a big hour ahead here and glad to say that Kaylee Lyons has joined us for it.
Monitor Show 07:00 08-24-2023 07:00
"Much more on that and more. Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. Now, unfortunately, we've seen this deterioration in breadth and it's sort of across the board. The consumer can spend if it wants, it has a lot of savings, but it's a question of confidence. They continue to prioritize services or continue to prioritize food and drinking places. The consumer will start to face headwinds in our humble opinion. It's going to be difficult to get to that last mile of inflation decline from 3 percent to 2 percent. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Kean, Jonathan Farrow, and Lisa Abramowitz. From New York City, for our audience worldwide, this is Bloomberg surveillance alongside Damien Sasseour and Gina Martin Adams. I'm Matt Miller. Tom, John, and Lisa are all in Jackson Hole ahead of our special coverage tomorrow. I'm told that they are doing some reporting today. Obviously, there are a lot of very important people there hanging out at that wherever the million dollar cowboy bar or the mangy moose or whatever the cool place is to go. And then tomorrow, starting at 8 a .m., we'll have our special coverage of Jackson Hole. So 8 a .m., I believe until noon New York time, it's 1 p .m. in London, 8 p .m. in Hong Kong. Definitely don't miss television. I can't wait to see if any of them is wearing a cowboy hat. Mike McKee had. Did you see him yesterday? I did. I was on radio with Mike. I saw him. Amazing outfit. He always comes. Fantastic. He always brings it to Jackson Hole.
Monitor Show 15:00 08-04-2023 15:00
"I'm not sure about that. I feel like you don't see those as much anymore. You put a bumper sticker on your Tesla? I don't know. I don't know. It was like the lifeblood of radio stations for so many years. I'd tell you to have a great weekend, but we've got a couple more things to do. I'll meet you on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV at 5 o 'clock. With my dear friend Kaylee Lyons, I'm Joe Matthew. And we'll see you then. We'll also see you back here Monday on Sound On, because Bloomberg Business Week starts right now. Broadcasting 24 hours a day at Bloomberg .com and the Bloomberg Business Act. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week. Insight from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. Bloomberg Business Week with Carole Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. Happy Friday, everyone. Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio, streaming on YouTube and on at Bloomberg Originals. It's Friday, August 4th, 2023. I'm Tim Stenebeck, along with Madison Mills. Carole Masser is out today. Maddy, how are you? I am so good on this Friday, unlike the stock market, Tim. Yeah, well, you know what? I was going to say that it's a reversal of what we saw over the last few days. Stocks rising, bond yields falling, but now stocks have gone negative. Thanks, Apple. Bond yields still falling. This after a mixed jobs report, doing little to change those bets on what the Fed is going to do. You know, Michael McKee is in here. He's international economics and policy correspondent. He's just getting warmed up, because he's been in here.
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"McKee in conversation with Boston fed president Susan Collins. Starting with the PCE inflation, that's about what was expected that is some positive news at the same time. Let me say two things about that One is that the monthly data really noisy. We've seen that. And so one month of move in a kind of more helpful direction is not something that really indicates a sustained change. And the other thing I'll say is that if you recognize the high elevated numbers we saw in December and January, this a bit lower number that we expected just means that the three month average is about what the 12 month average is. And so that's not a lot of progress. We still do have more work to do and more to see, to know that inflation is really on a sustained downward path. Well, you're on record as saying you favor at least one more move by the fed. Is this sort of lock it in for May that you do it because inflation is still at a high level and you don't pause for a month to see how things are going? Well, actually, I think I'm on record as saying is that I'm highly dated dependent. And so my assessment at the last meeting with the summary of economic projections did suggest an additional rate hike and then pausing and holding over the year. But I need to assess all of the data that's going to come in between now and when our next meeting is
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Actually remains pretty sound. Now, that's not true if you're in mortgage lending, that's not true. Obviously recently in the tech world. But in most of the businesses I talk to, it's still not the point where they pull that. And part of it is they really fought hard for 18 months to get workers. And they really reluctant to shed workers if it turns out that they didn't need to. And so I think there's still a reluctance. And when you see things like the recent jobs report or some of the consumer spending data we've seen for January, you start to see that in the businesses actual demands. And they're saying, we're not there yet. But of course we all know the world could turn and they could get there. I just don't think they're there yet. And that was Tom barkin president of the Richmond fed there, with Bloomberg's Michael McKee and Jonathan Farrell. And coming up, Steve iceman and why he's turning to balance. You're listening to Bloomberg best. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Bloomberg businessweek podcast, a conversation with Bloomberg opinion columnist, Leonid bershidsky, on the business week magazine cover story, Putin's war is crippling Ukraine's economy and Russia's two. The absolute numbers Russia has actually lost more than Ukraine because the Russian economy was so much bigger to start with before the war. So even though Russia is not economically devastated, it's not about to go bankrupt. It's not depending on external aid the way Ukraine is. But it's lost an enormous amount of money more than a hundred $1 billion in GDP terms. And that is before we start factoring in loss of life. All of these factors that are also related. Leonid and of course, the war continues. You talk about loss and you're right. You talk about the impact on economic activity, you name it. But the loss of life in terms of people who have actually died as a result of this war, but also people who are leaving the countries, whether it's Russia or Ukraine. You do think about the lasting impact of that that when we get fingers crossed on the other side of this, what it ultimately means. We see a huge influx of people from both Ukraine and Russia. And a year after the war began some of these families have settled in and a lot of these people, a lot of the Ukrainian
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Global economics and policy editor Mike McKee as usual. So the fed first meets and then the job report comes a couple of days later. We know what the fed is going to do pretty much in the coming week, right? We do. We don't know what they're going to do after that. And to answer the question you didn't ask yet that everybody will ask me before that is will the fed see the jobs numbers before they meet and know they will not. So they'll be as surprised as all of us. Friday when the jobs numbers come out. And that's going to be the interesting dynamic here. Jay Powell say about the future path of interest rates, two days before a report that could influence the future path of interest rates. So it's going to be an interesting interesting news conference from him. Okay, so remind to everybody the linkage between fed policy and jobs. Keeping full employment is one of their mandates. The other mandate is price keeping price stability. Price stability. And those are pretty closely linked. The price stability target is, as everybody knows, 2% as measured by the personal consumption expenditures indicator. Full employment mandate is not defined. It's kind of when you see it, the fed tends to think it's around 4%. So at 3.5% right now, we're below that. Forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the October payrolls as it will tick up to 3.6%, but still very low, still very strong labor market that suggests people have money to spend and they're spending it and the feds trying to bring demand down in order to bring prices down, and that generally means you end up with higher unemployment as companies produce less stuff they need fewer people. And that dynamic hasn't kicked in yet, except perhaps in the real estate industry. Okay, but they also have to pay them when all those people are working. And paying people money, that's inflationary, right? I forgot that. Those higher wages. Well, it's the higher wages. It's when employees start to ask for more money because of inflation is high that the fed gets worried. Because then it starts a circular problem for them. And so they want to get ahead of that. Surveys show that people think that inflation is still mostly contained. Their views are, it's risen a little bit. And so the fed is pretty much certain that it wants to do at least one more 75 basis point move because they want to try to get ahead of that. They want to convince us, by the way, is three quarters of a half. They want to get ahead of any kind of wage price spiral and let people know that they are on the job. Is there evidence of, is there a threat of a wage price spiral that we like we saw on the 70s? We haven't seen anything like that yet. And the best guess is we won't have anything like the 1970s. For one thing you don't have large pattern union contracts as you did then where one union in an industry gets a new contract with higher wages and everybody else has to match it. So that will help hold down that whole issue, but even now we're seeing 5, 6, 7% raises over the last two years, earnings rising by that much. And while that's great for workers, then companies have to make that up somehow. So they raise their prices. The problem is is that they haven't been able to find workers. There is a supply problem of labor. And so that means that a, they're much less interested in letting people go, which relates to the jobs report and B, they've had to pay up to get them. And now the question is, does the labor market stabilize? Do they find enough people that they can they don't have to keep paying more? And the only way they can the fed can affect that is by reducing demand. The higher rates they are having an impact and slowing things down, certainly in housing. Certainly in housing, housing basically kind of in a recession. Residential investment in the third quarter, according to the GDP report from last week, fell by 26%. That is the kind of numbers we saw in the great financial crisis when housing all collapsed and back in the early 1990s. It's a sector that is in deep trouble for right now. It's cyclical though. We know that it comes worse perhaps right now than it has been in a while, but at some point there will be more demand for housing and it'll pick back up again, but right now it's leading the way down. Okay, so I keep asking this question, but do they have to torpedo employment to get to their goal of bringing inflation down? Well, at the same time, I don't know. Would that employment full employment goal too? To stick with your metaphor, they don't need they don't necessarily need to torpedo employment. They can just let a little air out of the boat, but the problem is you don't know when you've actually successfully done that. Bloomberg global economics and policy editor
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Bloomberg business app. Hi everybody, I'm ja Tucker, and we're going to start today's program with the Federal Reserve, joining us now to talk about what to expect here's Bloomberg global economics and policy editor Michael McKee. So the Federal Reserve meeting, the expectation from the markets is what? That the fed will do 75 basis points. Raise raids by 75 days. On this program we say three quarters of a three quarters of a percent. And so that is likely. Now last time they told us they were going to go 50 and of course a couple of days beforehand, they dropped the news that they are leaked the news that they might go 75, which is what they ended up doing. And then of course the ECB this past week was going to do 25 and leaked the news that they would maybe go 50 which they did. Yeah. Is that troubling to you? It is. It's a legacy I think of forward guidance and the fact that central bankers have decided that markets should be able to price things in in advance and not be shocked. It used to be doctrine of central banks that markets should be surprised and they have decided over the years that you get a much better economic outcome. If you don't surprise the market. So in both cases, it appears that the data that came in after they went into their quiet period changed their minds about what they needed to do. And we saw the highest inflation ever in the Eurozone, and we saw that really bad CPI report in the United States. So both changed their minds and went bigger. Okay, so we're very data dependent. In fact, I think you told me that every little data point matters. What does all this data in addition to the CPI tell us? Well, you know, it's kind of funny because after the ECB meeting, everybody's initial reaction was forward guidance is dead. And yes, it is. Because the banks don't know. Put another way is sort of like fed officials and European officials. The central bankers guessing. That's kind of where they're at right now. I mean, for two decades, we had the great moderation and we were able to predict what the Central Bank was going to do based on the economic conditions everybody had the same information. But now markets are all over the place because they don't know what's going to happen. And some people take one side of the geopolitical and others take another side and the central banks want to wait and have the maximum flexibility so they don't have to be leaking to banks. If the banks are investors, we'll put it that way. If the investors are not convinced they're going to do one thing or another, they can't overload a trade and won't be shocked when the bank makes a late decision. There's no indication at this point that inflation is moderating or there are some. There are some indication we've seen gasoline prices down for over a month every day getting lower. Oil will be features have declined and we've seen some we've seen some decline in agricultural commodities. Now, those things take a while to feed into the economy. But they are happening. And so that may take the edge off inflation. As you say, people haven't noticed yet, maybe, because it's gas prices are still high. But we have seen the impact in the housing market with existing home sales dropping significantly. The last couple of months. What is all the lag time with this before we actually see this stuff show up in the real economy? That's because companies and people don't make borrowing decisions, big borrowing decisions every day. It takes them a while if your boss the majority owner of Bloomberg LP decided to redo this radio studio. It wouldn't be something that he just walks in and says, I don't like this. Let's change it tomorrow. It would be something that would be planned out and they would look at the costs and they would look at what it would cost us to get the money to do it. And they would have to plan the whole thing. So projects take a long time to get going, especially big projects which would have a major economic effect. And then for consumers, how many times do you buy a car or a house in a year? Not very often. Let's talk about the expectation consumers expectations of inflation. How important is that? It's become orthodoxy among central bankers that those expectations make a difference in inflation because if people expect inflation to happen on a regular basis, then they will go to their bosses and ask for raises to meet the inflation that's coming and then because they gave those people raises the bosses have to turn around and raise prices again and you get into this spiral. So the feeling is that it is better that inflation expectations stay anchored in the fed and most central banks around the world have set that at about 2%. And if people expect inflation to be stable over a relative period, then they're not going to have to demand extra compensation for it. The Federal Reserve pay attention to company earnings reports and the conference calls that these earnings calls that these companies deliver after they report. But for the fed, it's what you'd call anec data. It's anecdotal reports on what's going on. We saw a big decline in tech stocks over the past year at a time when the market was doing fine in the economy, was growing rapidly. So maybe we get a bad report from somebody like Apple, does that mean that the economy is going to fall off a cliff, not necessarily. A
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"You should see how fast Mike McKee runs into the studio to get ready to break these economic data points. It's just getting ready. Futures up 6 tenths of 1% on the S&P on the NASDAQ by about 7 cents of 1%. Mike knew the data would come out as a few seconds after 8 30 Eastern Time. It's out now. Mike, you've got the numbers in front of you. I don't. I'm having trouble saw signing into the machine. Break him down, Mike. All right. You break them down and I will try to figure out why this is not working. Housing starts month on month. Down about 2%, Mike, we were looking for a meeting estimate of two percentage points positive. We got negative two. Building permits month on month, we were looking for negative 2.7%. We've got negative zero point 6%. So making that what you will, Mike, housing starts just a little worse than expected. And I guess building permits a little better than expected. Yeah, but the building permits are down and that's kind of the overall question here is how long our builder is going to be able to expand, given the fact that demand seems to be falling off rather rapidly. So with building permits down, it does suggest that we're going to be slowing down and the question which will be answered later this week tomorrow actually with an existing home sales is when does all this have an impact on prices. Prices have been going up no matter what, which surprises people given the fact that mortgages are higher. And that is feeding into CPI and PCE and causing inflation on the core level to rise. So the question is, can we get that down, when does that start to go down? When do the higher mortgage rates and affordability start to impact the markets. But we did see a really, really bad drop in the home builders index yesterday. They're getting pessimistic, and you can see it in this data today. Mike, what's the nighttime typically between house prices coming down and rental prices getting hit? What's the relationship there? Well, it's kind of difficult. What the government does is they ask you what you think your house would rent for. And that's how they try to figure out what the cost of housing is. It's out rent prices are obviously available and we see rent prices going up, but you don't move every week. So you don't really notice the changes in the same way you do with gasoline. So it takes a while. It can take 6, 9 months to get into the system. And so the estimates are we're going to see this kind of change going forward for some months in housing. Now, we'll see other things maybe go down, but housing will still be contributing to inflation for a while. Well, to your point, Mike, on the home builder sentiment data that we got yesterday, the lowest reading since May of 2020 and the chairman of the NHD this quote to me just is fantastic. Production bottlenecks rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home. Are you surprised with how quickly things have deteriorated and housing sector that was so hot for so long? Not really. I mean, we saw mortgage rates rise, perhaps faster than anybody anticipated because they've been low for a very long time. And then they've jumped to rates we haven't seen in a while. And so the builders are looking out there and they're seeing demand fall off and we have seen the mortgages go down mortgage applications go down quite a bit. Now the next step is watch the employment numbers and we'll watch construction workers. If they start to lose their jobs, that would be the first sort of indication that higher interest rates are pushing up on unemployment and that's going to be key for the fed. The event you went to an Idaho is a precursor for Jackson hole. Link your Idaho event to what we may see the end of August injection. Well, the issue is really ejection hole. What is Jay Powell say? And that's going to depend a lot on the data. The general feeling at the Rocky Mountain summit in Idaho was that the CEOs and economists who were there really didn't know what's going on. They have a bad feeling about things, but the data are inconclusive because jobs have been strong. There's a mix between GDP and GDI gross domestic income that doesn't really give a clear picture of how the economy is doing. And yet inflation remains higher. Surprises to the upside. So the question is, what is Jay Powell say? And he probably is going to write his speech at the last minute given that we are waiting on the plane more. Even more inflation and jobs data. On the plane time. And give you a taste about the decision in September and The Wall Street Journal. Tom will be sitting next to him helping him. I did that with Corona once. How did that work out? I said, mister Corona picked him a room carpet. That's where we went. PH is up 7 cents to a better morning again. 8 cents or 1% on the NASDAQ 100. This is a great joy in perfectly time. He is Mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics and what you need to know in the absolute depth of O 8 O 9 world coming to an end GDP, doctor sandy was a lone voice saying there will be a recovery and we will get back to three ish and four ish GDP. And yes, there was volatility in quarter to quarter noise, but it was remarkable how he said patience will recover. Doctor sandy joins us this morning, Mark. Just as simple as I can. There's a lot of gloom out there, John talks about a mutual fund manager survey. You know the economic data as well as is anybody, can you look out to better times?
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The jobs report in America ten seconds away the price action coming into it looks like this Futures negative 7 tenths of 1% on the S&P on the NASDAQ 100 down one four percentage point with your jobs report in America Here's Mike McKee Anticipated John 390,000 jobs were restored last month The forecast have dropped to three 18 after that 80 P number the change in private payrolls even better than 333,000 Of course both of those are down from last month Last month we'd seen 428,000 and 406,000 for private But manufacturing payrolls come in up 18,000 Those numbers from the prior month down 22,000 we've had a revision lower So it does look like the economy may be slowing down just a little bit The unemployment rate stays at 3.6% We had anticipated in the Bloomberg survey It would drop to three and a half in part that maybe because the labor participation rate didn't move all that much It does tick up to 62 three the expectation from 62.2 But we'll have to go underneath the numbers to get a better picture of what happened on the household side Average hour earnings that's the big number everybody's watching come in weaker than anticipated Three tenths of a percent higher for the month 5.2% on a year over year basis which is down from 5.5% Now this kind of upside down world that we've seen guys this is probably good news for the fed the numbers are weaker than expected but still strong So they do show maybe signs of a decelerating economy and decelerating inflation pressures without suggesting that the economy is going to fall off a cliff This one won't settle any arguments Let's push this through this market Futures recover just a little bit still negative a half of 1% on the S&P if you look at the bond market yields with a lift by a couple of basis points at a front end to two 65 further along the curve by three or four basis points to two 94 no major changes TK off the back of this one They're not but I'm going to do some math here John and I'm sorry with the revision up in the last 60 days John We've created an average of 413,000 jobs per month And I'm sorry It's a job formation machine Neil that's for an ice on macro calling it Goldilocks ish Mike McKee does that resonate with you No I think that's a fairly good way you could describe it given the situation This is only the beginning of what is supposed to be happening but we've talked about this and I know you guys have talked about it with some of your guests The idea that because the markets have front run the fed a lot and have pushed rates up You look at the whole yield curve It's above where they think neutral is maybe we're seeing transmission a little bit more quickly into the economy And that would be good news overall for the fed The biggest change that we have seen in terms of the employment data seems to be in leisure and hospitality Again up by 84,000 for the month food and drinking places up by 46,000 Now of course we're getting into the summer season when there would be more people going into the leisure business We'd see some of the amusement parks and things open up So there'll be some seasonal questions about that But professional and business services still are number two at 75,000 higher That suggests that companies are maybe starting to take on some part time workers or contract workers to see how it goes And if they need to continue Transportation and warehousing adding 47,000 jobs that's a category that we've only really just begun to watch because of the shift from buying in person to buying online Construction 36,000 it had been unchanged in April So the construction industry still strong in the month of May but we are seeing signs that that might be starting to roll over So all in all paints a picture similar to the base book that the economy is slowing a little bit but not falling off a cliff Mike McKee thank you Great work as always Let's talk about the ish of the Goldilocks ish Tom You've got an upside surprise on a headline number and to Mike's point you go through this the unemployment rate at 3.6% it didn't drop any lower You didn't see an upside surprise in wages You have seen a tick higher in the participation rate And when we spoke to an enzyme of mork and Stanley I said pick a number any number I can give you now which one would it be She said the participation rate just a little bit of a lift there Tom It's not a massive move It's not dramatic But if you were sitting here and you were the Federal Reserve what you'd like to see over a series of months was just for that supply side story to improve time without that inflationary experience being exacerbated by much time to labor market I'm going to give you no drama I'll get it Let me round it up here You go from two 92 to a two 95 ten year yield You're on your way back to that 3% number All of a sudden with that song We've had a move of I think more than 20 basis points now on the week on ten year treasury put together with what would happen with a German ten year bund which is up about 30 basis points It's been a big week for yields Random cross there were the first observations here Of course for the booth school of Chicago the former fed governor Randy I want to talk about what the fed actually does around the table at the eccles building with this report Do they value an analysis of the inflation adjusted wage Does the real wage matter Or it does Because they're looking both at the inflation to see where expectations are what is happening in the labor market And then they look at adjusting for inflation our real wages exploding There's certainly not exploding We've got inflation that's much higher than the 5 roughly 5 and a half percent growth of wages And so I think as you were saying the fed is going to take this as this is kind of what we were anticipating that we're not seeing an explosion on the wage side We're not seeing a collapse of the economy either I mean these are still very strong numbers Unemployment rate of 3.6% is still an extremely strong number It's very rare that the U.S. economy has a sustained unemployment rate below 4% And so I think it's very much consistent with the fed's forecasts and so that means there's nothing that's going to stop them from continuing this march of 50 basis point increases and is my former colleague from graduate school They're going to be marching through at least September in those 50 basis point rate increases Well that's exactly where I wanted to go Randy Does this jobs report give credence to the idea that they could go 50 basis points three meetings in a row and then follow it on with another 50 basis point rate hike even though last week some including Rafael bostic we're talking about a pause So as they always say their data dependent we have to see how the data come But if you get reports like this is going to give fed the confidence that they are doing the right thing that there's certainly didn't have a little bit of an impact on inflation And hopefully once they get in the two and a half 3% range they'll have more of an impact Inflation expectations have not gotten out of control The short term expectations are super high but that makes a lot of sense But the intermediate to longer run expectations are really not much out of the range where they've been over the last decade.
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Ain't nothing but I'm McKee thing The Bloomberg green business report a bill being considered by state lawmakers would make New York the first state in the nation to require fashion brands to disclose their climate and social impacts The firms would have to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions The fashion sustainability and social accountability act would apply to companies such as Nike and Armani with more than $100 million in annual worldwide sales that do business in New York Companies could be fined if they failed to comply The bill has been referred to a legislative committee It calls for companies to map at least 50% of their suppliers by volume identifying adverse impacts from greenhouse gas emissions and the use of water and chemicals The firms would have to set targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use across their supply chains They would be required to disclose information on the type of material used by suppliers and the volume of recycled materials used Jeff Bellinger Bloomberg radio What is dedication The thing that drives me every day is a dad is very honorable We call them odd day for short Every day he's hungry for something whether it's attention affection knowledge And there's this huge responsibility in making sure that when he's no longer under my wing that he's a good person I think the advice I would give is you don't need to know all the answers The craziest thing was believing that your dad knew everything So as a dad you felt like you had to know everything You had to get everything right It's okay to make mistakes As long as it's coming from love then you know it kind of starts to work itself out I want him to be able to sit.
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Hi everybody I'm John Tucker let's start today's program with the coming jobs report and joining us to preview this Bloomberg economics and policy correspondent Michael McKee Where are we in terms of the jobs market in the U.S. Pre-pandemic and post pandemic We still about 6 million short 6 to 8 million depending on how you look at it if you want to consider how many jobs would have been created had there not been a pandemic new jobs as opposed to the jobs that are being restored We're still quite short and that's one reason the fed thinks that the job market isn't all that tight The problem we've had is not enough people coming into the labor force looking for jobs or a lot of job openings and so one of the numbers that we'll be focused on and Wall Street will be focused on Friday is the labor force participation rate came in at 61.6% in October and the forecast is for only a slight tick up to 61.7% This is a really weird jobs market One of the big mysteries is why aren't people showing up or what's the problem Well there seem to be a couple of things going on One is that awful lot of people retired We knew the baby boomers were retiring in the participation rate has been declining for more than a decade The retired early but a lot of people who might have kept working even though they were eligible to retire just said the heck with it I'm going to you know collect my social security now And leave the labor force The last time we saw something like that happened was in the 1990s and remember the economy got so strong that a lot of retirees came out of retirement and came into the labor force to help pull down the unemployment rate to about 3.8% So that could happen again The other issue is are people fed up with the kind of work they were doing or afraid to do the kind of work they were doing because of COVID and I'm speaking of people who have a lot of customer facing jobs like waiters and waitresses bartenders like that who still may fear a COVID outbreak Okay but we would get an indication of that from if we looked deeper into these reports and say services where you do have that face to face customers stuff We haven't seen as many jobs come back in those areas as we lost Certainly That's been a big problem I would add that it's not just maybe people who don't want to go to those jobs but as you know from traveling around restaurants everywhere closed and did not reopen So a lot of jobs went away And it'll take time to get those back That's one of the federal reserves mandates Do they have the policy tools to comply with that mandate of full employment They have a very blunt tool and that's the benchmark interest rate for the United States And at this point demand is very strong The numbers we saw during the last week where people were pending money Still spending money and so were companies And so that's caused some of the supply chain problems that we've had that are pushing up inflation There's nothing that them buying QE can do to solve a supply problem in terms of goods or people working So the question is will they at their December 15th meeting Start tapering faster so they can have the option of raising rates sooner That's what they're going to be looking at because the inflation part of the mandate is starting to become more important How does that improve the employment situation by using that blunt tool or can it It doesn't help it to raise rates The idea would be that you would cool growth of maybe cool job growth So that's what the fed is reluctant to do at this point And that's the reason there's such a debate over what they should do because do you prioritize inflation or do you prioritize trying to get more people back to work The feds been doing the latter And they have believed that inflation would fall back on its own That's still the general view of economists on Wall Street But people are beginning to get a little more nervous because it's lasting longer than anticipated Is there evidence out there that businesses can't expand Because they don't have a good pool of workers from which to choose That is a problem particularly for smaller companies Small businesses report great difficulty about half of them say that they have openings that they can't fill because they can't find people to take the jobs and a smaller business would probably have more trouble raising its what it charges in order to pay its employees more And so that's something that is going to take a while to work out That's the job front what other data are we waiting for Manufacturing data from the institute for supply management the ISM number comes out on the first of the month And so everybody's going to be watching to see if manufacturing is still strong which is anticipated given the forecast by economists But underneath that the question is are we still seeing supply chain problems Supplier deliveries unfilled orders What's going to happen with those indexes Are they going to suggest that we're starting to see a little bit of easing in the supply chain That would be very helpful for the fed because then they would have more confidence inflation's going down And if you can buy what you want to buy.
3 Men Charged in Deadly 2018 Missouri Duck Boat Accident
"Three men face charges in a deadly duck boat accident on Missouri's table rock lake from twenty eighteen when a tourist duck boat sank on the Missouri lake during a severe thunderstorm seventeen people died federal charges against a boat captain and two other employees were dismissed now local authorities including those in stone county Missouri and the state are reviving the threat of long prison sentences with a total of sixty three felony charges Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmidt said is to hold the people allegedly responsible for the deaths accountable in an affidavit highway patrol sergeant mark green said the captain failed to exercise his duties by going on to the lake with the boat with a severe thunderstorm warning in effect the captain Kenneth Scott McKee aces seventeen charges of first degree involuntary manslaughter and twelve additional charges that he endangered child passengers on the boat five of whom died I'm Jennifer king
"mckee" Discussed on Protrusive Dental Podcast
"And there's gonna be a final question because there's so much we invite you about for a part two because being probably a useful. I think there's been exit. Appreciate that guys. Dr mckee right now is in a beautiful part time record today so again. Thank you so much. You're very kind So the next question then. Let me get my list. So what is because every patient's unique every joint mariah. Cbc t. we'll come back with a unique position but just as a sweeping statement if possible for generic average case. If they have someone who's getting let's say with a piper three be so that's when they have a displacement without reduction as infecting the lateral poll. And maybe they also presenting deviations and or deflections. What is your typical regimen in terms of. What kind of treatment. And they may be looking at is. Are you actually looking to change the shape of the teeth. Change inclusion away to better coordinate the joint or are you generally going to be at that point involving an orthodontist or is it. Usually something in removable appliance. They want to get things corrected in first before committing training bit more invasive if it depends on what they present with if they have problems might typical. I approach would be some type of an appliance. I do a lot of flat plain appliances with a piper three v. you could also do enter programmers wealth so that that's the situation so would be easy to do that as well I tend to do more flat plain appliances for joints though. Because i tend to have better success having support all the way around. I generally if they're not having any problems and they're just clicking a lot of times i'm just gonna monitor it to be honest with you. I mean i might do an operation if the teeth present with that. Because what i'm trying to do is to try and maintain and protect the teeth so if i could change the low distribution of the tooth level and that would benefit them..
"mckee" Discussed on The No Film School Podcast
"A in a job in an office and they're called into the boss's office. Ed suddenly given a promotion that they never expected. And it looks positive but suddenly in a fear on right and And you And you know that that is like a turning point somewhere in the middle so now you got him back saying. Why would somebody getting a promotion. Raise all that fear in them. Who is this person. How did their life again. What in any go back in in you. Yeah you put them in a in a university setting in there just graduating body annika certain them in parents certain relationships and so forth. Yes and like that and so. That's what i what. I when i met when i said it doesn't matter you can start in the middle. You can start in the beginning. You can start with rain climax. You can start with something that's actually ended up in the back story. You could start with a character. It doesn't matter what matters is that your mind has a full vision of story characters and events. And the you're starring tyler capable of thinking on all of those levels in terms of characters and their dimensionality complexities life family way momentum war you know or like gone nomad land woman. Land was wonderful. It of fun. Taoism illustrated you be trying to come into harmony with nature. And so you could start with a theme. don't excel in writing and then you've been riding. The problem is that we have cut ourselves off from the natural globes things and that is dallas at aged chinese doubts. I don't think it's an accident. The director that films chinese but that is a neither character right or an inciting incident team. Yeah it's a an idea. People are not living in harmony with the natural world and And chill out of that idea created character. Who did who. Liz out of harmony living in a company town husband dies and she starts wandering and she's offered you go back into society with by a guy who's a good guy by sister who take care of her and she keeps rejecting because there's something in her it says i'm out of sync with reality and she's trying buying that and yes. John's obscuring out of the pacific ocean. Whatever so it. Gerald character start with events startled usa setting. But if you're julia right you have a massive. Understanding of setting character event psychology sociology have a vision of were and you understand all of those parts ultimately after the fed and harmonize to make meaning movie motions. And so all this talk about where you start is really amateur. Because the actual execution knowledge of the bigger rain during the canvas artist. Professional artists doesn't worry about things like fried mine. Air mind is full of images and ideas people politics in nature and every a their thoughts are turning all the time they know what ultimately they have to create and where they start how they proceed britain enough script to know that every single screen by a road star in different looks dumped and scary her sometimes setting sometimes any sometimes genre. Menial started in a different place in matter ultimately they add to get rid. They were something something came to you. That then became a story from some other point. Yeah well i. i can't thank you enough. This has been really.
"mckee" Discussed on The No Film School Podcast
"Be an act. Tend to be right. Let you have to understand in these. Things is the degree of change. A scene is relatively minor. Change it significant by. It's relatively minor in terms of the impact on the character characters life and whether or not that change in that scene pushes the character closer to or further from what they want. So scene is relatively minor in terms of its impact on the characters designed a sequence climax series of scenes greets a moderate change a series of sequences brings about an act which is a major change major turning red affecting the characters movement toward what they want either closer let they want further a want and a long-term galavision a series of of major turns reads a movement which is a massive change massive meaning it goes both inward into the characters and so the fact is is dumb and so trying explain to people. The nature of as a measure expressed rather in a in event as it of negative ride in terms of one character. Watts and then net desire be conscious and also sub catches and so a the bush character toward what they want consciously and further for what they want really subconsciously and selling. It's very very complex. Yes and and because life is very very complex. But that's sub. The almost the sub atomic particle of it is that charge that you mentioned that change at the level of like a tiny shift on just a beat right and then that it it kind of grows to each thing and when you say a movement and you talk about long form television start thinking 'cause i i read story for the first time before i'd watch things like madman before there were these shows that we're doing these bigger arcs. Do you see these sort of like a season of television is that now. Where does that fall into the concept of it's like bigger than an act certainly right bigger than a half season. Do you think writers should start laying those kinds of things out on a charge new masons. Yea teach that salary law roach celebrated writing. See something like breaking bad. I'm trying to remember the numbers lead. There are twenty six storylines the central black twenty-five subplots over five virtually succeess. And i broke it into four movements where there's massive change right. It has to when you add up all the acts between the twenty six three lives over two hundred fifty sector alone. Heisenberg lot had something like ford acts. And so and so you you need you. Need an is too much to imagine in a sense. Yes costa the elliott right closer to epic the can get a sense of organization than i came up with the notion of move which goes from john major to mascot mass e. causes impact changes not only the characters like those aside but those four movements in breaking bad don't necessarily correspond to seasons in so you can't be that hat on it. Season is a boob. It may it may or may not so. Is it sometimes better. Almost if it isn't. I don't know if i should even use the word better but in some ways like leaving like allowing story to to be somewhere as long as all your scenes and an act are turning correctly. It doesn't necessarily matter where the movement turns right. 'cause it's building appropriately arrested so in so weird actually happens within the season or at the end of the season is to organic to It has the rest i mean. How are you going to hold interest for five or six years. Yeah it's a sarah seemingly impossible tasks change the change. The progressions have to get deeper and deeper and wider and while edge. Y you know those kinds of six seven. Eight season series are Very difficult so what you have instead. Now a lot is something in between so you have like fargo. Is you know each one. Each season is what like eighty episodes. And as one story it tastes eight episodes. So that you don't get into that. That is a movement at as an act. We come that mass. And so there's a lot of series now are but they're still still long true long-form. I'm watching the godfather of harlem regenerate drawing a lot going into the second season and the hook at the end of the season one was was in so i am nominee seasons. They can keep it going but it quality of stays. I like it is than it could become another wired sopranos rant. Your recommend is one. I'm definitely gonna check it out now. You own camera equipment that you're not always using at sugar dot com. You can earn extra money. Renting out that camera gear to local filmmakers and photographers share grid vets every renter and gives them access to instant insurance. To make sure your gear is always covered against damage or theft for one hundred percent of its value. Shade is the largest marine communities over a hundred thousand creatives sharing over one billion dollars worth of equipment. So don't films. school readers. Share grid has a special offer. That's just for you if you sign up today at share grid dot com slash. Nfs you will get one hundred dollars worth promotion credits fear listings. You can list all types of gear. Whatever you have from camera gear to lighting audio to grip the props even locations anything production related that you're not using can work to earn you money. So don't we start putting your gear to work go to share grid dot com slash. Nfl support for this. Podcast comes from invent together according to studies less than thirteen percent of all inventors holding. Us patent are women. Black and hispanic college graduates patented half the rate of their white counterparts. But we can fix that by increasing participation in innovation and patenting by underrepresented groups. It would quadruple. The number of american inventors and increase annual gdp by almost one trillion dollars. Invent together is a coalition of organizations companies. Universities and concerned citizens committed to ensuring that everyone has the opportunity to invent patent because the more diverse. The american patent system gets the stronger and more successful. Our nation will become. What can you.
"mckee" Discussed on The No Film School Podcast
"Thanks so much for being here. It's an honor to have you. I've i've read your books. I studied them. I found myself. I think with story way back when when i was screenwriting more i found myself thinking. How am i ever gonna remember all of this. Like i was taking notes like how this is all good. How will i remember it. And i tried to apply all of it and one of the things. I love and i want to talk about the new book and i wanna go back in time and talk about sort of where you started because i know theater was huge influence but one of the things i wanted to ask was just as an overarching principle. Sort of do you feel that you feel that there are truly consistent. Rules to good storytelling principles. No because i never used the word rule. Yeah that's a mistake to begin with just doubt word and so the answer of course is not a rule which the difference guidelines is that how you would say as principal right and so every art form as certain principles and or even better word. It has Certain forms to bring example job. You almost never paid a eighty square service or round service because those creates symmetry and in order to create a certain tension need a rectangle. And that's it's not a rule. Do you want to pay the square. Go ahead But you're gonna have difficulty creating at balance intention because don't wanna be symmetrical and and the energy will dissipate so there are these principles in all art forms because we've been doing this for tens of thousands of years and Certain forms event. The human mind is certain way we had one is in the middle of our warhead. The maybe a square canvas would work but we are binocular we have to us and therefore dealer service just seems to affect the mind. And so you have you. An art. form has certain forms of being caused by the way when human beings experience life. It's the way their senses work. The way their mind works away their sense of beginning middle and end of the passage of time their sense of conflict and Th- rant to life all this lives inside of human beings and and as a result certain artform established certain of underlying principles and but they're just principles. And and so you. As i said if you wanna pain on a circle go right ahead it because it's not a rule it dragged and when you do that you decide to to ignore the principle. Then you're going to have certain properties which you could salt is gun agreed way and a square servicer circle could produce a really wonderful piece of visual art. Why why not right and so And so that's a long answer But no that's a great answer because that's that's a very good explanation of the difference between a principal and a rule and what the consequences can be for making a choice conscience or otherwise to ignore principle of story and also sort of talks about where i mean you talked about where why principles exist because the human brain works in a certain way the human physiology exists in a certain way which brings me to another fought. I think a lot of your. I think you've said before a lot of what you talk about in terms of story principal comes right from aristotle. And i'm curious. Do you think or or if you have explained in the books. Forgive me and maybe you can you can recap for audience a little bit but do those principles that relate to story just like a rectangle relates to the human is. How do those story principles relate to the human being in terms of like how would create like what we are physically and mentally and experiential to me clear. Aristotle is actually very simple and very clear. But i don't think you could use the word file describing the poetics. He wasn't trying to be profound. He's very profound in in writing about the ethics in writing about jim. A human nature nature itself but when he's writing about the theater he's very descriptive and it very very clear. But it's relatively simple simply because what he was working with which is primarily the at ampex homer and the place of the athenian stage. Were relatively simple. They powerful tragedy. But they're not. They're not generally complicated. There's no subtexts. it's all the nose and yet the immense Certain plays of course break far because they feel very profound moral questions but oedipus immediate aristotle. Aristotle aristotle never gets involved in the buttocks in talking about the subtext or the the moral implications or a sense of faith or whatever so when you say that my when say that my writing is based near stout wow sure was was first but there has been tremendous Writings since aerosol. It goes far beyond. There's those writers in the nineteenth century century early twentieth century and today certainly went well beyond still so but what is said. We were obvious. Truisms a story operates in time. Therefore there's a beginning a middle and events there are people who obviously ignorant of aristotle who claimed that aristotle said they standard a three act structure in fact their salaries the word act and in fact the plays aristotle looking at especially at his rex. Basically one ax one hundred minutes less one ax and homer is not a play nor enact at all so it. You you In view The odyssey or the union and broke into major turning points which is the definition of an act a sequence scenes and sequences the climax at a major turning point if you broke the odyssey into act. I'm sure there are forty and within those many scenes. Turn you similarly if you if you you'd never done it. But if he said that can be jim storylines. There's that only a odysseus.
"mckee" Discussed on The No Film School Podcast
"How important are screen writing books. Manuals guides rules templates. This is a question that comes up. All the time there are countless books about how to write a screenplay one of the most important famous popular will read is robert mckee's story and our guest today. Is that very same. Robert we key. He has a new book out character. The art of role and cast designed for page stage and screen. It is available on amazon. You can check it out. You can read all of his other books. Including of course story substance structure style in the principles of screenwriting from back in one thousand nine hundred ninety seven. I've read a lot of robert mckee's work. I was really excited to speak with him. Key corrected some my conceptions about his work and its role in screenwriting. I've always been a person who's believed the best rules or guidelines are the ones that help you write or help you write stuff. You're proud of and happy to be writing. I think for the most part robert degrees. We got into some really interesting stuff as far as theory. Specifics he has wealth of knowledge about the history of storytelling. And that's to me a lot of fun stuff but you will definitely come out of this. I think excited to write because we talk about what makes writing exciting new rhyme meant. That was an accident..
Here Comes Biden's Generous Tax Credit for Electric Vehicles
"Everybody robbing our here and stay. We've got a bit of an update from yuan on the next iteration of the model y at giga berlin and texas. We've got a press conference for president. Biden at ford advocating for his instructor plan some news on tests stock from renaissance technologies and new research and a couple other stories as well. We'll start off with the stock. You're quickly tesla today. Finishing up two tenths of a percent to five hundred seventy seven dollars. Eighty seven cents a rare over performance for the stock as of late outpacing. The nasdaq which was down. Six tenths of a percent but to again just kind of drive the point home from yesterday's episode where we talked about the influence of rotation things that art innovation. Etf today up one point four percent before we get into the updates from. I did just want to quickly talk about. Biden's press conference and updates today on them structure plan. I think this was probably the most discussed topic that i saw out there for tesla today and kind of for good reason. I think the concerns. That were heightened. Today around this infrastructure plan are threefold. The first two are in one line of release statement from the white house on the instructor plan to day sharing a couple of details about how a consumer electric vehicle tax credit might be structured. It says quote these incentives will not go towards expensive luxury models and will also incentivize manufacturers. Who use good labor practices and quote so the first concern. They're being okay. Expensive luxury models. What exactly does that mean. It's unclear at this point in time and in second they're also using good labor practices. What exactly does that mean. We know that is a big union guy. Self-proclaimed and tesla is of course not unionized which i think brings in the third amplification of concern which was biden's press conference itself in which he frequently and consistently emphasized unions so bringing those down for the first concern in terms of expensive luxury models. I don't share too much of a concern on that. I think if we see an exclusion it's going to be an a price ban that still accommodates tussles model three model. Why lots of the competition right now is sitting in that price band including offerings from ford. Which biden was presenting today. Both with the ford mckee and then presumably also with the ford f one fifty lightning which was actually onstage behind biden at his
"mckee" Discussed on Fancy Free Podcast
"And era. And today i have with me sean. Mckee sean is a neuro radiologist a mother of two kids in college. A white thirty one years. An ultra marathoner and ironman triathlete. She's also professional bio hacker and she loves helping motivated women thirty five up flip the switch on their survival and vitality gene so they can be more resilient feel better do more and feel like twenty. Something again sean. Thank you so much for being with me today. You are welcome. I gosh i love the whole premise of this podcast. How refreshing my gosh. I have so much fun with it. It just brought so much laughter into my life. So yeah thank you fill in the blanks wet. Did i miss about who you are. And what you do as a neuro-radiologist. I was a person that just felt like. That's what i do i am. I am a neuro radiologist. That's what i am. And i can't be anything else and it's just an epiphany kind of slapped me in the face. One day when i was like how people live life like you know you've got family members to take. Her mom had cancer and had to take off two weeks ago. Be with her. She had major facial reconstructive surgery. And i was just like i don't have a job i am the job. How do people do. I was kind of like what is going on. And then you know low behold. I think you've probably discovered the very same thing you know you can reinvent yourself. You can do anything what nobody stopping you. Yeah it's awesome. It's so exciting. When you realize that and you think wait In my case. I went to all that school. I became a physician. I had this huge panel of patients and then all of a sudden. I just didn't do it anymore and i didn't die. Nobody talk and everybody just moved on with their lives. All my patients found new doctors. And i was okay. I enjoyed my new role. And and then you have to keep looking and keep reassessing right because as your circumstances change than you probably should react to it if you want to have your to that tugs. Yes let's get to know you a little bit better by doing some rapid fire questions. What was your very first job. I trained horses was training horses in giving riding lessons. My first customer was a dual taught him how to ride trained his six-year-old athletes horse. That had never been touched by humans out to triple amazing. Do you have a recurring dream. And what is it. Oh i do. It's horrible. I hate it okay. There's two of them. The first is. I'm in a car. And i am backing up in. Its dark and i'm in the woods on a dirt road. And i can't figure out you know where i'm going with the car Which is stressful. But it's not done last very long my one. I just carried on for hours at night. It seems as the one where. I'm back in medical school or i'm back in my residency and i've been there for a year and i'm not really officially they're I'm officially they're enrolled. But for whatever reason i'm i'm not doing what i'm not doing what i'm supposed to do i'm getting away. I'm going to all the lectures in the tumor boards. But i haven't dictated an x-ray ray report in a year and for whatever reason seems to notice that i'm not doesn't miss you out in your dream you just like riding waving enjoying it. I don't know i'm stressing out. You know that is so interesting. I have a recurring dream. That never actually voiced anyone. I don't think until just now. Because i wonder if you're listening to be the same as mine i dream that i'm in residency and i took a year off and i come back and i feel so discombobulated and behind and rusty and nobody's giving me any grace for it and then i wake up and i'm like did i take a year off what's happening and the thing is i'm on my seventeenth year of maternity leave but when i did my training i went straight through high school college. Med school residency. Dan and never took any time off. Which actually is inadvisable. If feels like imposter syndrome like panicky imposter syndrome. I hate it now. That's so funny. I think we have the same dream. Like i think the reason. I'm not reading anything. Not because i'm trying to get away with something. It's because i think that. I i've taken so much time off in behind him. The wilder just like you. I mean my gosh like the same dream. That's crazy so weird okay. I i wonder if male physicians ever dream things like that or if it's just a us because i don't know anyway i mean that's a whole nother rabbit hole and what's the most amazing thing you've ever won. I want a diamond necklace. I was at a fundraiser children's fundraiser. In the lexi glass box in in the box was the necklace in. They have given everyone keys and deep in conversation. And they're like will everyone's gone. There's only one key left in. I'm like wait. I didn't try my case. So i walked up. Open the thing. The david your Diamond necklaces with a rope to that with that was really cool. But i would love to tell you the coolest thing that somebody i know what to. I have two friends that were in a convention in one of the company. The company that i work with and they were giving away a chevy mustang but it was a pace car in the indianapolis pace car beautiful convertible they call to two of my friends. Names up there in the had a little box where they would get keys. You know everybody got a fake toy carplay within One by one by one. They would try their keys in my high school. Best friend's sister key started the car. She shows fifty thousand dollars instead of the car. Smart girl that's awesome. Wow fifty grand. That's a huge prize. No we were like urban. Confetti came from the ceiling was so fun that's awesome. Oh my gosh. Wow okay well as you know. The point of this podcast is to show our listeners. Not only how they can feel less alone by listening in on other people's embarrassing stories but how connection occurs through sharing these stories and how we can meet on solta so level when we show people are imperfections in our underbelly. So what do you have for us today. What is your degree all right so my sophomore year in high school and my parents were divorced and My mom moved to a small town about thirty miles. South of where my high school was. And so i didn't want to have to change schools because not on track to become violet valedictorian. The guy can't be taken off so i. I drove thirty five miles to school in back without a driver's license at eight fourteen. And gosh because i couldn't park in the parking lot. Because i didn't have driver's license is part of my friend's yard and ran across the football field and so next year of like that's probably not so good. Maybe i'll live with my stepdad for this year. And so i call the school's summer late summer. Unlike how do we know best to get on in a new house new neighborhood and they just laughed at me. And i'm like you know when it comes outside your front door. I'm like okay. So i did a soul on the bus was like golly no at least one person of bus was almost all started driving the wrong way. Oh we're going. Further out of town further town we pull into vanguard high school in my high school forest high school. And i'm shaking my head to myself. This is not happening but it is. This sounds like a bad dream. The first thing. I don't know how i got to go. I think maybe they yup. I think maybe the school had sent somebody out anyways match. Got back to my regular school like nine. Am or something and my guidance. Counselor at forest was so tickled. She had had to walk by. But to this classroom at announced why i was.
Wildfire smoke is especially dangerous for children
"As the climate warms more devastating wildfires are raging across the west and filling the air with toxic smoke. The smoke at self is composed of hundreds of toxins predominantly though. The smoke consists of particular matter. That is very very small. Two point five microns or less and the reason. This is so dangerous as that particular matter of that size when it's inhaled it can go all the way to the base year long and crossover into the bloodstream. And then re kavak in many different ways throughout the body. That's mary mckee of the sean parker center for allergy and asthma research at stanford university. She says children are especially at risk because their bodies are still developing they also tend to more physically active than adults so they may inhale smoky air deeper into their lungs so she recommends that parents monitor air quality and keep their kids inside when the air is polluted and certainly if a child has any type of respiratory disorder. Make sure you have a prescription refilled and on hand. If they should need an inhaler or something like that in the moment she says these precautions can help keep kids. Safer as wildfire seasons. Get more extreme.
Senate confirms Gina Raimondo as commerce secretary in 84-15 vote
"Resigns as Rhode Island governor after a Senate vote, confirming her appointment as commerce secretary. She will be sworn in tonight with a ceremony at the White House. Meantime, Lieutenant Governor Daniel McKee Is now your new governor of Rhode Island Theater
Senate confirms Gina Raimondo as commerce secretary in 84-15 vote
"Former Rhode Island governor Gina Raimondo has now been confirmed as the new secretary of Commerce. Dan McKee is now your new governor of Rhode Island. It's
Senate Confirms Gina Raimondo as Biden's Commerce Secretary
"New governor in Rhode Island tonight. Dan McKee sworn in as the ocean State 76 governor sworn in after former governor Gina Raimondo officially joined President Biden's cabinet as commerce secretary after winning Senate confirmation. Your attendant no longer in the running to lead the budget office in Washington, the White House withdrawing her from consideration after she faced a mountain of opposition over highly partisan tweets and her
"mckee" Discussed on Scientific Sense
"Welcome to the site of accents. Podcast where we.
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg Radio and television. Jonathan Farrow. Tom Keen and Lisa Graham was John Farrow. Off today. Interesting to see how the unprecedented becomes mundane over and over and over again, Tom a remarkable week a highly unusual one to start the year with a lot of strategists having to change. Your year ahead. Outlooks days. Everyone you go have dead on Lisa. The idea from pre a measure of TD securities of a reassessment on January 8th. I mean, really, Lisa, that says it all. Yeah. And basically right now we're still in a winter of discontent is our next guest has phrased it. And yet we're looking ahead to a time with more fiscal support with a more consistent view of how the future will look. But Tom Highly uncertain given. We don't know when the pandemic want. I'm just hearing from Ellen Zentner of a difficult December labor economy. Of course, the jobs report here in 30 minutes. Lots of good perspective from Michael McKee on that is Well let me do the day that the news floated this morning is so extraordinary on radio and TV. We're gonna get through the day too quickly to give you the best we can and conversation futures up, 11 down, Futures up 85. The VIX flat now, 20 to 37 on the vics. Dollar comes back stronger dollar over the last two days. Oil oil oil, Part of the research zeitgeist this morning is higher Oil 55 33 brand and the wonders of the quality of inflation expectations were not going to do that right now to get to our esteemed guests, But I really want to make clear folks. There has been a shift in The discussion of the inflation to comment. I'll be one of our themes. Certainly next week here on Bloomberg surveillance right now, if we were to give out a trophy for original labor research in 2020 There are no contenders. There is only Daniel Alpert and Cornell University, and they're fabulous work on measuring the American labor economy, pre pandemic. And then within the collapse of the labor economy within this worsening pandemic, Mr Albert with Westwood Capital. His age of oversupply is definitive. Dan, I need an update on what you see on the American labor economy away from the usual statistics. Well, let's reset. At this point. We've had 74 million initial claims from employment insurance. And we're down about 8.5 million jobs overall. So what the market is exhibiting is enormous. Turn. You have people 750,000 tater 50,000 people each week. Claiming unemployment benefits and yet on we're about to see what's gonna happen in the 30. When the Japs number comes out for December. The jobs number hasn't the total agree Jobs number hasn't moved all that much. So the problem is, we got business instability that instability of employers out there and we've got them facing a very, very tough winter ahead because not only are they You know, slow down by by colder weather, and, you know difficult try serving meals, outside restaurants. And what have you that they are now facing this huge wall of accumulated liabilities, deferred rents to pay her debt service. Other obligations that have been suspended by moratoria and your parents. I want to talk about the four Barrington of at least and I want to stay in the labor economy right now. Dan Alpert, you summers and Blanche are 1986 talked about goods producing histories is about people staying out of work for a long time, and they can't sustain their job. Bring that over to the modern service sector economy. What the service sector histories. This looked like It's history, in theory should be slightly less of a problem because a lot of these service jobs don't involve tremendous levels or keeping keeping up on theory. In theory, however, what that does to the human being is, I think now not as well understood being out of work. The Tendency to not look for work. After a period of time, feelings of despondency, inability to support families collapse of households, those things all pay in Play into what is effectively a form of history's is and this is not likely to simply be absent wasn't absent during the global financial crisis took years to recover from On did this one where we still have 8.5 million, perhaps more people out of out of work relative to where they were in February of 2020. Um, you know, we are going to face it difficulty in reemployment people, but they will not be re employed. It's the businesses that employ them previously failed, and that is my biggest concern at this point, So Tom uses gamma beta and history says I'll just say it takes time when you take a look at the ramifications of what we have seen from the pandemic to know what the longer term effects will be. You talk about the turn the incredible turn underneath the labor market that is unlike anything we have ever seen. What will be the longer term effect the ramifications of that in a way that perhaps people are not considering People certainly will crave more longer term employment that now it's the difficulty in interpreting some of this data is none of this has ever been seen before. And so when you when you start to look at these huge disparity between unemployment claims and jobs numbers, you have to ask yourself what's that doing to both businesses and people? Are we developing? Just in time Labor Force, which is already well along the way prior to this crisis, But we have literally that you know, I employ a serious of kitchen staff and waiters in my restaurant on Lee in the summers in the fall. Right, and then I lay them all off in the winter. What kind of environment is that Create for people over the long term..
"mckee" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In Hong Kong and here in Singapore on Juliette's Ali and I'm Doug prisoner at the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio in New York, a record setting session in the U. S kind of sets the stage for what we're seeing Right now in Asia. We've got a rally in the market in Seoul market in Tokyo, advancing quite handsomely and positivity and Sydney as well, details coming up when we check all the price action with Brian Curtis Right now, A few of this hour's top business stories well, President Trump is losing his social media megaphone. We get more from Bloomberg's Curt Wag now that banned by Facebook for two weeks. Certainly that's A step far beyond what they've ever done, I think in Twitter's case is actually pretty significant as well. They only temporarily suspended President Trump. But they said at your next violation, we're going to kick you off entirely. So imagine a world in which No real Donald Trump doesn't exist at all. And so I think they have taken a pretty dramatic step. But of course, everything that he's done on those services up until now has really kind of Ah, led to the events that we saw yesterday. Sanctions against the president is spreading beyond social Media. The e commerce platform. Shopify is pulling all digital stores affiliated with the president. When Mr Trump becomes a private citizen, he'll be more vulnerable to permanent bands. If he breaks social Media rules here in the U. S tomorrow. 8 30 Wall Street time the December employment report. We have a preview now from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. Job creation has been falling off since the big rebound in June. The latest labor market data lend credence to the forecasts of some economists that we actually lost jobs. In December, ADP reported. Private payrolls fell by 123,000 and service industries lost jobs for the first time in four months, according to IAS. Um, given the surging virus, it will be hard to disappoint markets or the Fed who expect bad news. Employment data won't offer much information about where the economy is going. Just how big the hole is right now. Michael McKee Bloomberg Daybreak Asia China son Novak vaccine has proved 78% effective against covert 19 in Brazil. This, according to Sao Paulo state officials, This is the most definitive results so far. It came up. Two previous doctor sparked confusion and doubt over the shots. If a Cassim Son of ex parte They institution in Brazil Plans to request emergency use authorization from regulators started back on the supply side can make more than 600 million doses a year in China and group is planning to restructure its consumer credit business. We have more from Bloomberg's Tom Mackenzie. The change would involve placing ants to Main micro lending units, which had more than $260 billion of outstanding loans as of June into a consumer finance unit that would, in theory, allow the lending business to operate nationwide without new licenses. Aunt in its investors are still wrestling with the uncertainty around Beijing's new regulatory crack down. The central bank has stopped short of calling for a break up of the business, but has said it wants to see a timetable for ants over Whole a soon as possible. In Beijing. Tom Mackenzie Bloomberg, Daybreak Asia, Let's Get to Hong Kong Now with Brian Curtis for markets. Yeah, Julia, we've had the removal of some uncertainty in the markets with Georgia and now with transition, and so And also with the investors looking for a lot more stimulus coming with the Democratic controlled Congress. You do see gains in markets, the Nikkei's up 320 points. The ASX 200 is up about 2/10 of 1% of cost be with gains of 1.9% Samsung it's profit for the fourth quarter, missed analyst estimates. Due to weaker smartphone sales up. The stock is traded higher for much of the morning. Currently up about 1.7% Micron had some earnings. It's up 1.3% in the after hours session. Micron, giving a bullish forecast for the current period. That pretty much indicates that demand this is strengthening for its products used in phones and computers. So interesting to put those two together Samsung on Micron Technology. Beijing has ordered Chinese media sense of the coverage of Ali Baba will see how Ali Baba trades later today, it traded down 3/10 of a percent of the U. S session. One of these stories is well Young Day Stock up. 15%, the cable TV unit of the Korea Economic Daily says that Apple is in talks with young day to develop self driving electric cars. Report says that Apple has offered this cooperation. Jandi has considered it and is just awaiting the chairman's approval. Some of the numbers for you, the Cosby is now up 1.8%. Dollar is starting to weaken little after a very strong session in the U. S. Dolly in one of 3 79. The yield on the 10 year treasury now 1.8% Juliette back to you. Thanks Primal President Trump has for all intents and purposes, conceded the election. Let's get to Ed Baxter and San Francisco. He's covering all the latest it. Yeah, exactly. Julie. I did not hear him use those words. But we're gonna listen here hey, has used his Twitter account, which is still active to address the country. It covers the siege yesterday and the transition going forward. On also handed his future. This is the video tweet in full. I would like to begin by addressing the heinous attack on the United States Capitol. Like all Americans, I am outraged by the violence, lawlessness and mayhem. I immediately deployed the National Guard. And federal law enforcement to secure the building and expel the intruders. America is and must always be a nation of law and order. The demonstrators who infiltrated the capital have defiled the seat of American democracy to those who engaged in the acts of violence and destruction. You do not represent our country And to those who broke the law you will pay. We have just been through an intense election and emotions are high..