10 Burst results for "Matthew Zeti"

"matthew zeti" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

06:38 min | 10 months ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

"President trump calls this the best economy ever is it. I'm David Brancaccio in New York. President trump addressed both houses of Congress Congress last night and took what can be seen as a victory lap regarding America's place in the world and the state of the economy. Tonight I stand before you to share ear. The incredible results jobs are booming incomes. Asari poverty is plummeting. Crime is falling Ling. Confidence is surging and our country is thriving and highly respected again. He said he was quote thrilled to report the. US economy is the best. It has ever been it. needs to be said that average growth in the economy as measured by gross gross domestic product during this administration is much lower than it was under presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan however the president headlined the Low Unemployment Rate Marketplace's replaces Nancy Marshall Genzer joins us now from Washington with some context on that and the president said the unemployment rate is at the lowest level in half a century. That's true The president also talked about what he called a blue collar. Boom wages are rising fast and wonderfully they arising fastest asked for low income workers who have seen a sixteen percent pay increase since my election. But David wages aren't rising as much as they normally would with an unemployment rate this low and one reason blue-collar pay is increasing is local and state governments raise. Is there minimum wages and the president also talked a lot about factory jobs manufacturing. He said his administration was restoring. Manufacturing's right well the president said the. US has gained twelve thousand new factories under his administration. That number is off. The bigger issue is most of those factories. As implied five people were fewer and the government has a very broad different definition of what a factory is and more traditional manufacturing has been in a slump with the Institute Institute for Supply Management reporting its manufacturing index fell for five straight months although it there was an increase last month marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer. Thank you you in that speech to Congress. We saw president pleased with the economy. As we say and America's Global Position Today the Senate will vote to keep Donald Trump in office despite impeachment teach me in the House of Representatives. His approval ratings. Haven't been going up or down. What does that mean for? The trump administration moving forward now Ian Bremmer is founder of the political risk consultancy called the Eurasia Group. Good Morning I was GonNa do it today just now. The president last night spoke again of a blue collar. Boom I'm and the economy helping the bottom half of American incomes. Not just the top you've written about this in. Does that mean the frustration. If not the anger of of people that perhaps fueled the president's election has subsided or will subside soon has subsided a little bit. I mean certainly. We're not just talking about market growth numbers. Wages are up a little bit even middle and working classes now from where they were three years ago and and to be clear there were no dem's Back in two thousand sixteen thought the US economy under trump in three years would be doing as well as it is right now but let's keep in mind it's on the back of these big tax cuts for corporates and for the wealthy and the US on the back of a lot of regulatory rollback which is problematic long-term and on the back up trillion dollar deficits and the US economy growing at a two percent clip. Given all of that is pretty anemic. Do you think this is now a president that can and get another tax cut through soon sometime soon. no no. I don't think that's particularly likely we don't think he's moving anywhere on infrastructure infrastructure either given what has just transpired in the Senate. If you think that Iowa caucuses were bad And created uncertainty in polarization. Not Not even close to what we're going to see in November and that I think is going to be important to markets because they think that this election is if it's trump if it's someone else they think there is some more about about what happens to Bernie Sanders becomes president. They don't think what happens if the risks is for weeks or months we actually don't know who's one and it's really contentious and quote unquote. Ray I I think that's the more proximate risk quote unquote rig not rigged. Certainly the perception of the losing side irrespective will be that. Yes you Bremmer. Advises advises corporate clients on political risk as founder of the New York based consultancy the Eurasia Group. Let's check the markets greasier. The footsie index in London is up six tenths percent Dan. Here Dow S&P NASDAQ futures are each up between seven and eight tenths of a percent crude oil up sharply up two and a half percent fifty eighty four a barrel This morning we'll get numbers. I from the Commerce Department on the trade picture covering all of twenty nineteen. Economists are expecting that our annual trade deficit with the rest of the world will go down which which is marketplace's Scott Tong reports doesn't necessarily reflect good news one of the big stories in the. US trade picture last year was that imports fell dramatically at the under twenty nineteen part of that says twitchy. BECCA economists Matthew Zeti is the. US raise tariffs on Chinese goods at the time. There's been a sharp decline in imports from Tena. In addition you had GM strike which led to significant declines in imports of auto parts. The fees one trade deal with China in January should boost our imports of Chinese goods and American exports to China in twenty twenty but the overall American trade picture where the world. Here's James Watson Augsburg Economics really we're GONNA see the West yes US trade since the financial crisis where really expecting to see imports and exports pretty much store woah which hurts consumer choice around the world he says global growth is uncertain and despite the initial trade deal with China the US still has a lot of tariffs in in place. I'm Scott Tong for marketplace and in New York. I'm David Brancaccio. You're listening to the marketplace morning report.

president US President trump David Brancaccio New York Nancy Marshall Genzer Eurasia Group Senate Scott Tong America Congress Congress founder Ian Bremmer Congress China David Bernie Sanders Institute Institute for Supply
"matthew zeti" Discussed on NPR's Business Story of the Day

NPR's Business Story of the Day

04:08 min | 1 year ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on NPR's Business Story of the Day

"This message comes from NPR sponsor. Get around with get around your idol car can actually earn you money. Just share it on the APP and Rinse it out when you're not using ED visit dot com slash share now to start sharing get around it's go time the Federal Reserve is expected to try to pump a little more air into the tires of the US economy today. Those tires have been showing some signs of a slow leak and central bankers are hoping to avoid an economic flat. The Fed's widely expected to cut interest rates for only the second time since the great recession but it's not clear. That's the boost. The economy needs right now. Here's NPR's Scott horsely the Fed ed will announce his decision on interest rates this afternoon and economists Kathy boss genetic of Oxford economic says financial markets will be both watching and listening watching for the anticipated it'd quarter point rate cut and also listening for what Fed Chairman drome Powell has to say about it just has to be very clear that we are going to do whatever it takes aches to sustain the expansion POWs been trying to send that message. He told an audience in Switzerland this month. The Fed is not predicting a recession but he acknowledged the economy could stall near the ongoing tariff war rattles enough business people to the point where they stop spending uncertainty around trade policy is causing some companies to hold back now now on investment and so our obligation is to use tools to support the economy and that's what we'll continue to pal and his colleagues also pointed to trade uncertain in deep back in July when they cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade the stock market wasn't satisfied in part because bowel seemed to suggest the time that might be the last rate cut for awhile boss. Johnson says t's hoping for not only an additional rate cut today but a signal about more cuts in the future it will be clear. It's not one and done and but he has to be careful that it's not too in done. He needs to leave the door open. Clearly to feature Rico's boss genetic is actually predicting two more rate cuts in October and December remember but even with that extra push from the Fed. She thinks economic growth will slow next year to just one point six percent the trade war isn't the only economic speed bump. You've also got slowing growth in other countries. The dwindling affects the two thousand seventeen tax cut and after the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia uncertainty about oil prices nervous about a slowing economy president trump has been browbeating the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively to zero or even lower others including former New York Fed President Bill Dudley have argued the Central Bank should stand pat and let trump feel the political fallout from the trade war. He started POW. L. Has repeatedly insisted the Fed will not be swayed by political pressure from either side political factors play absolutely no role in our process and my colleagues and I would not tolerate any attempt to include them. The stock market is counting on a rate cut today and would likely suffer a selloff pal and his colleagues don't don't deliver but Matthew Zeti of deutchebanks says it's not clear lower interest rates will do much to help the nation struggling factories we see the driving force of the slowdown certainly in manufacturing trade uncertainty and cutting the Fed funds rate is not going to be able to fully alleviate that uncertainty factories awesome and others have cut back on investment not because it's too expensive to borrow money but because they're not sure they can sell their products in that environment is Eddie says cutting interest rates can only do so much what would help is an end to the trade war and in recent days there have been signs of a possible thaw in U. S. China trade relations still boss Austrian success. She's not convinced a truce is imminent right now. That's all talk you know we have seen that before. We've seen encouraging talk and then both the markets it's and business leaders and consumers. Everyone ends up being disappointed because not only is there no trade truce. It actually ends up being ratcheted higher. The president has already ordered another tariff increase on Chinese imports in mid October if no agreement is reached before that Scott Horsely N._p._R. News

Federal Reserve NPR drome Powell president Scott horsely Johnson US Switzerland trump Bill Dudley Rico Saudi Arabia Chairman Kathy New York deutchebanks
Fed Eyes Another Interest Rate Cut To Prop Up The Slowing Economy

NPR's Business Story of the Day

04:07 min | 1 year ago

Fed Eyes Another Interest Rate Cut To Prop Up The Slowing Economy

"This message comes from NPR sponsor. Get around with get around your idol car can actually earn you money. Just share it on the APP and Rinse it out when you're not using ED visit dot com slash share now to start sharing get around it's go time the Federal Reserve is expected to try to pump a little more air into the tires of the US economy today. Those tires have been showing some signs of a slow leak and central bankers are hoping to avoid an economic flat. The Fed's widely expected to cut interest rates for only the second time since the great recession but it's not clear. That's the boost. The economy needs right now. Here's NPR's Scott horsely the Fed ed will announce his decision on interest rates this afternoon and economists Kathy boss genetic of Oxford economic says financial markets will be both watching and listening watching for the anticipated it'd quarter point rate cut and also listening for what Fed Chairman drome Powell has to say about it just has to be very clear that we are going to do whatever it takes aches to sustain the expansion POWs been trying to send that message. He told an audience in Switzerland this month. The Fed is not predicting a recession but he acknowledged the economy could stall near the ongoing tariff war rattles enough business people to the point where they stop spending uncertainty around trade policy is causing some companies to hold back now now on investment and so our obligation is to use tools to support the economy and that's what we'll continue to pal and his colleagues also pointed to trade uncertain in deep back in July when they cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade the stock market wasn't satisfied in part because bowel seemed to suggest the time that might be the last rate cut for awhile boss. Johnson says t's hoping for not only an additional rate cut today but a signal about more cuts in the future it will be clear. It's not one and done and but he has to be careful that it's not too in done. He needs to leave the door open. Clearly to feature Rico's boss genetic is actually predicting two more rate cuts in October and December remember but even with that extra push from the Fed. She thinks economic growth will slow next year to just one point six percent the trade war isn't the only economic speed bump. You've also got slowing growth in other countries. The dwindling affects the two thousand seventeen tax cut and after the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia uncertainty about oil prices nervous about a slowing economy president trump has been browbeating the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively to zero or even lower others including former New York Fed President Bill Dudley have argued the Central Bank should stand pat and let trump feel the political fallout from the trade war. He started POW. L. Has repeatedly insisted the Fed will not be swayed by political pressure from either side political factors play absolutely no role in our process and my colleagues and I would not tolerate any attempt to include them. The stock market is counting on a rate cut today and would likely suffer a selloff pal and his colleagues don't don't deliver but Matthew Zeti of deutchebanks says it's not clear lower interest rates will do much to help the nation struggling factories we see the driving force of the slowdown certainly in manufacturing trade uncertainty and cutting the Fed funds rate is not going to be able to fully alleviate that uncertainty factories awesome and others have cut back on investment not because it's too expensive to borrow money but because they're not sure they can sell their products in that environment is Eddie says cutting interest rates can only do so much what would help is an end to the trade war and in recent days there have been signs of a possible thaw in U. S. China trade relations still boss Austrian success. She's not convinced a truce is imminent right now. That's all talk you know we have seen that before. We've seen encouraging talk and then both the markets it's and business leaders and consumers. Everyone ends up being disappointed because not only is there no trade truce. It actually ends up being ratcheted higher. The president has already ordered another tariff increase on Chinese imports in mid October if no agreement is reached before that Scott Horsely N._p._R. News

Federal Reserve NPR Drome Powell President Trump Scott Horsely Johnson United States Switzerland Donald Trump Bill Dudley Rico Saudi Arabia Chairman Kathy New York Deutchebanks
"matthew zeti" Discussed on On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts

On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts

03:04 min | 1 year ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on On Point with Tom Ashbrook | Podcasts

"They're willing to lose money today as a hedge a little bit of money as a hedge against losing a lot in the future chur if they stay another assets that is a big signal that something is very strange and wrong in the economy okay last year though <hes> in the new york times they had a great piece sort of an explainer on the yield curve here and <hes> they quoted a senior economist matthew zeti an economist at deutsche bank who talked about how <hes> long-term rates being pushed lower by that bond buying and short term rates being pushed higher because the fed was tightening its monetary policy policy so the yield curve had nowhere to go like it was going to just get flatter and so he said because of that in the current environment. It's a less reliable indicator of possible possible recession than it had been in the past <hes> absolutely you can make that argument's a number of my colleagues actually at the f. t. We were having a debate about this online this morning and some people people would argue that but what i would say is again. Look at all the other signs. Look at those signs. I just mentioned the fact that all of these forward looking indicators indicator have been down not just for a month or two but for a year and a half <hes> you know i could go on the we talk. We hear a lot particularly from our president about the robustness snus of the u._s. Consumer well. If you start to dig down below the headlines spending figures you see some worrying signs you see that people are getting worried about credit card debt and they're starting independent back and cut back on that <hes> you're seeing that in the middle of a holiday vacation season they're spending less on gasoline because they don't want to <hes> travel. The only forty two percent of americans are gonna take a vacation this year because they're worried about financial <hes> issues so i could go on but there are lots and lots of other indicators so i try i look at the whole universe and collect all the little red flags and i have a lot of them spread out on my table right now well but on the other hand. The president of the united states is tweeting <hes>. It just just tweeted this just yesterday on like others. Our economy is strong. <hes> i completely disagree. I don't know what else does i mean. I <hes> we are at the end of a recovery cycle. Recovery cycles typically historically last about ten years. <hes> were there <hes> <hes> we have used artificial. What i think are artificial means to jack up stock prices over the last ten years. I mean basically after the great financial crisis not only in the u._s. But around the world governments were good locked. We couldn't do real fiscal stimulus so central bankers you know well-meaning came in and cut rates and through a lot oughta money four trillion dollars. The u._s. was was dumped by the fed to try and get things going and even with all that what they call unconventional monetary policy. We still have miniscule wage growth. <hes> most of the fastest growing job categories in this country are low wage jobs. <hes> we have stock prices is that are pretty near record highs but they've enriched <hes> the twelve percent or so of the population that owns eighty percent of stocks..

fed president senior economist new york times matthew zeti deutsche bank united states ten years four trillion dollars forty two percent eighty percent twelve percent
"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:52 min | 1 year ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Calls me and Tom Keene. Pulse Videon for John Farrow feral at the elgar will talk about that a little bit surveillance correction. I thought he was going straight from the all gar to Madrid. He's not went to the garbage coming back and then I think he goes to Madrid right now. We need to do the economic indicators officials in negative fourteen. And the economic indicators is always brought to you by Commonwealth financial network the r I a broker dealer. This one, the JD power award for the highest in independent advisor satisfaction among financial investing firms that don't that five times in a row. Visit Commonwealth dot com. And we think Commonwealth financial network for their support a quiet day to day, but the later on Paul Suinian this, the securities beautifully to our next guest. We have some several many in. The minutes of the fed, which I find ridiculous. And the minutes used to be used to be to try to measure Arthur burns, the what the pipe smoke said out of his pipe. And then it was Greenspan multi syllable. Speeches. And now it's some several many Matthew Zeti joins your Bank right now on the American economy. What fail you miss you do you get out of the minutes? I think the value of the minutes depends on what has happened in between the meeting and today and I think that's a particularly important for about today's minutes. The minutes will typically today should show, the fed was a little bit more optimistic on the growth fund mystic on, on trade, and in global growth. And it clearly that's become stale, given that we've had the flair trade tensions since then I think, more importantly, we'll be looking at is how they talked about the inflation dynamics outlook. Well, let me look into that in moment, but this is really important. The minutes became a joke about some several in many do they still do that to the minute still say some of our districts, several members do they still have absolutely absolutely do. And, and you know, part of job is parsing through how many members and officials are represented by each camping anything on the inflation front, that's going to be an important distinction today. If they feel Matthew, I think from the feds perspective, they feel that inflation is let's call it. Stubbornly low, do you think the fed can even influence inflation? I think that's a key question. And we've certainly seen a number of fed officials and, and academics and others focusing on the fact that the Phillips curve fund, meaning that inflation, does not seem to be as responsive or sensitive to the unemployment rate in growth has been in the past week. We put in a note just recently early this week and it looked at how much of the core PC basket KENDALL said actually affect either through the economic growth or through the dollar. We think about two thirds of the basket. They can't affect that means that there's about a third of the basket that they cannot. And so it does put constraints I think on how much they can they can get inflation. Can I get back to two percent and from this policy framework, debate can even get above two percent if they wanted to so from your perspective, what can lead in a flation higher wage? Just looking at wages, you know three point two percent. That does not seem to be doing it. Yeah. I think wage growth has not been doing it or for a few reasons, one is that productivity growth has risen in line with wage growth. And so you haven't seen these costs push pressures come come through. In addition, these some of these components that, that cannot affect have been been weaker. But I think the fed, if they are looking to push inflation, higher, it's going to, to be through the economy, typing and more importantly to inflation expectations really, really important. How do they force inflation higher? Is there is there a legit published academic study that says a fed pushed inflation higher? I think the whole Phillips curve, framework, which has, has clearly come under question is about the fed being able to push inflation higher. But that's the effectiveness of that has declined because the sensitivity of inflation dislike has declined history. Well, let's go to Walter Heller. He was before you met the sixties did they, quote unquote push inflation higher. Or was it other forces that moved to play should higher? It was a combination if you look back to the sixties, you had an economy that clearly had head over tightened up. They continue to push unemployment rate lower at the same time. You had health care initiatives, that, that let this guy rocketing healthcare inflation. So that was outside their control. But I think most importantly, inflation expectations rose substantially inefficient expectations versus actually because the fed was really trying to get a hot economy at that time they could contain a push mower. And just in time, he had massive fiscal stimulus. So does it looks at that period and said this wasn't uninteresting inflation, expectations and they look forward? Look at that is the key. Way too short. Betsy was we gotta get you in your three hours at some point. He's working with Peter Hooper, just brilliant. Brilliant, research poetry simple. Folks, I'm not going to put out a lot of charts. I have to be honest. I don't have time to do it today. I'm worried about getting feral home for the all guard, but the European five year and then five year forward from their view. It's grim. The chart says G R M, it's not at record disinflation, but it's, it's ugly. The US one is not as ugly. It's, it's it has a nice lift up, which got everybody lathered up, including chairman, Paul. But by no means is outside of trend poll. No, it's not. And again, I think if you're the fed you can do in a victory lap here and say, I've engineered, we've engineered a, quote unquote, soft landing and relative to the rest of the world. We're doing just fine August snow. We fed beating. It's June nineteenth, I think I've memorized you nineteen what do they do July? Thirty one. What do we do July? Thirty one as investors. I think they sit on the sidelines. I think they sit on the sidelines. And so the data pushes them off the sidelines. Absolutely. And, and they've data dependent. And it's clear that they are in the date is on their side. We hope you just great conversation said he Albert oh, Gallow. Let's get national headlines right.

fed Matthew Zeti Madrid Commonwealth financial Paul Suinian Tom Keene John Farrow Arthur burns advisor Phillips curve fund Walter Heller Peter Hooper US Greenspan KENDALL Phillips Albert
Fed, Matthew Zeti And Arthur Burns discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

04:48 min | 1 year ago

Fed, Matthew Zeti And Arthur Burns discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

"A quiet day to day, but the later on Paul Suinian this, the securities beautifully to our next guest. We have some several many in. The minutes of the fed, which I find ridiculous. And the minutes used to be used to be to try to measure Arthur burns, the what the pipe smoke said out of his pipe. And then it was Greenspan multi syllable. Speeches. And now it's some several many Matthew Zeti joins your Bank right now on the American economy. What fail you miss you do you get out of the minutes? I think the value of the minutes depends on what has happened in between the meeting and today and I think that's a particularly important for about today's minutes. The minutes will typically today should show, the fed was a little bit more optimistic on the growth fund mystic on, on trade, and in global growth. And it clearly that's become stale, given that we've had the flair trade tensions since then I think, more importantly, we'll be looking at is how they talked about the inflation dynamics outlook. Well, let me look into that in moment, but this is really important. The minutes became a joke about some several in many do they still do that to the minute still say some of our districts, several members do they still have absolutely absolutely do. And, and you know, part of job is parsing through how many members and officials are represented by each camping anything on the inflation front, that's going to be an important distinction today. If they feel Matthew, I think from the feds perspective, they feel that inflation is let's call it. Stubbornly low, do you think the fed can even influence inflation? I think that's a key question. And we've certainly seen a number of fed officials and, and academics and others focusing on the fact that the Phillips curve fund, meaning that inflation, does not seem to be as responsive or sensitive to the unemployment rate in growth has been in the past week. We put in a note just recently early this week and it looked at how much of the core PC basket KENDALL said actually affect either through the economic growth or through the dollar. We think about two thirds of the basket. They can't affect that means that there's about a third of the basket that they cannot. And so it does put constraints I think on how much they can they can get inflation. Can I get back to two percent and from this policy framework, debate can even get above two percent if they wanted to so from your perspective, what can lead in a flation higher wage? Just looking at wages, you know three point two percent. That does not seem to be doing it. Yeah. I think wage growth has not been doing it or for a few reasons, one is that productivity growth has risen in line with wage growth. And so you haven't seen these costs push pressures come come through. In addition, these some of these components that, that cannot affect have been been weaker. But I think the fed, if they are looking to push inflation, higher, it's going to, to be through the economy, typing and more importantly to inflation expectations really, really important. How do they force inflation higher? Is there is there a legit published academic study that says a fed pushed inflation higher? I think the whole Phillips curve, framework, which has, has clearly come under question is about the fed being able to push inflation higher. But that's the effectiveness of that has declined because the sensitivity of inflation dislike has declined history. Well, let's go to Walter Heller. He was before you met the sixties did they, quote unquote push inflation higher. Or was it other forces that moved to play should higher? It was a combination if you look back to the sixties, you had an economy that clearly had head over tightened up. They continue to push unemployment rate lower at the same time. You had health care initiatives, that, that let this guy rocketing healthcare inflation. So that was outside their control. But I think most importantly, inflation expectations rose substantially inefficient expectations versus actually because the fed was really trying to get a hot economy at that time they could contain a push mower. And just in time, he had massive fiscal stimulus. So does it looks at that period and said this wasn't uninteresting inflation, expectations and they look forward? Look at that is the key. Way too short. Betsy was we gotta get you in your three hours at some point. He's working with Peter Hooper, just brilliant. Brilliant,

FED Matthew Zeti Arthur Burns Phillips Curve Fund Paul Suinian Walter Heller Greenspan Peter Hooper Kendall Betsy Phillips Two Percent Three Hours
"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:25 min | 1 year ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"What are you talking about more management? What are you saying that you're gonna make your investment decisions off the conference call? No. But the obviously we listen to a lot of conference calls here. We were bottom up stock pickers. That's how we form our outlook on the economy in the sample size today does little small, you know, something percent of the SNP as reported so far, and it's a somewhat limited group of companies industries. So we're looking for more, especially from industrial companies with exposure to China and Europe. So in the conference call they're going to glean for you when they give you a forward. Look, what do they give you is it a revenue look and Ernie's look, or is it just sort of management discussion and analysis. Yeah, we're not necessarily looking for guidance. Our analysts are responsible putting together models. But just. A general view on their outlook for for sales for margins for what were they see their business going over the near term? But probably more importantly, frankly, over the next call it five years, and we got that from say Disney last week, and that's because responded, and that's really more interested in So Chris we have the markets the equity markets kind of, you know, getting back to their all-time highs here yet we're coming into a first quarter earnings period's going to be especially week down magazine. Cepeda four or five percent. Maybe even bleeding into the second quarter. How do you guys view kind of the near and intermediate term earnings outlook, given what the market has been doing this year? Yeah. So the market is going to be driven over over the remainder of the year by what we call the three t's trade Trump treasuries. That's the backdrop near-term yet to that. What's happening with earnings and what's happening with the data. And yes, you mentioned there's potential for q one to be down year on year the first down earnings quarter in three years. I don't put a whole lot of import on that. Frankly. But you know, over the over the medium-term economy looks like it solid. The consumer is doing well at least in the US and that should be good good backdrop for yet to that. How'd you get to the market price? And so you've got to add animal spirits and. Volatilities been low. There's a lot of money on the sidelines. Fifty five billion equity outflows in the first quarter and something I wanna rush back in. That's the quote of the day there from young meringue idea. Let's this is so important. I'm going to do it again, the market's up fifteen percent and fifty five billion walked out the door inequity. You called foam. Oh, fear of missing out. And I think there are a lot of people who regret. Taking the money. So what do they do? I mean is that the ultimate bicycle? Probably not what should you do? You should probably buy and hold as as we do. I mean, if you had to put your money in the market a year ago. You'd be up probably ten percent in terms of total return and the SNP with some volatility along the way. So Kristie mention one of your T's being trade. Hell important is it for the market to get a real trade deal with China as opposed to just a headline type of deal looks like to get some clarity over the next few weeks. Yeah. That's right. I don't think the market expectations for a. A real deal are that high. They can market the president. I think is looking for almost any deal, and I think the market understands that and discounted. Some which is probably a better than than where we were three years ago. But not as good as as we could have gotten if if maybe we'd push a little harder because we're gonna come back and really dive into on Netflix. This'll be must listen real clear view here on media with Paul Sweeney, of course, and Tom Keene Chris worrying as well. Paul got any number of ways of going here and one of them. I've got a mentioned as gold south south south. You talk twelve seventy eight of meaningful price down thirteen dollars. An actually now a risk on lift to yields as well. The thirty year bond two point nine eight percent. So this really shapes up as a constructive tape this morning to say, the least it really does. I think you know, maybe had some of those Bank earnings that came in from the Bank of America's in the black rocks. The world a little bit better than expected still uncertainty around the banking sector. But I think the expectation certainly in the back half of the year. You listen to some of the. Cease. We come Terry pretty positive, but I would go wall at worry. I mean, it's a cliche and all that. I know there's eighteen was a worry. But as Christopher he mentioned the three TS. I mean, there's there's like three wells at work as well. Yeah. And you get the the market continues to grind higher. I think you know, I just think most of equity investor step back, and they say the one current that. I have a lot of confidences that the fed is on the sideline for the foreseeable future. Where also gonna put my money as an Christmas com. Data point about fifty five billion dollars coming out of the equity markets extrordinary number Matthew, Zeti, really must-listen Bank. We did that earlier in Deutsche Bank just saying, you know, they're not gonna game up or down in rates. They're just saying flat flat flat out in the distant future somewhat. Like what we heard from Mr Draghi as well. Don't forget ECB headlines today. I'll be honest. I really can't unpack tiered capital John Farrell explained it brilliantly. But the answer is euro moved on at one twelve ninety seven. On your a weaker year over the last two days with yen won twelve exactly dollar yen over the last week two weeks. Even we not to record week this or anything like that. But nevertheless, tension Brexit, sterling with remarkable stasis one thirty fifty eight there as well. This is a real treat Chris Wernicke with Paul Sweeney will look at net flicks, cultural and financial juggernaut that it is we stay with us futures up. Ten rule by this is Bloomberg. This is a blue what percentage of global GDP is the United States half two-thirds. Guess again America is just twenty four percent, which means that seventy six percent of global GDP comes from outside of the United States Oppenheimer funds believes opportunity..

Paul Sweeney SNP US China Chris Wernicke Bank of America Europe Ernie John Farrell Disney Netflix fed Deutsche Bank Oppenheimer president Kristie Bloomberg
"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:23 min | 1 year ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"It is all about Thursday, though. Retail south's come again the morning initial jobless claims coming out as well. And you will get euro-zone PM is on the same. Day and China GDP count up to big week ahead for the economic to tell China GDP as a huge deal in a mystery. And I get this cynicism to it. But but actually have a lot of value of has quite right. Yeah. It typically is while the Chinese say it is I'm in the camp the camp. No question about it. Matthew Zeti with us chief use economists joint you Bank and the joy of his research report is it is beyond loaded not only with charts. But with intelligence charts. It's like a it's like a three hour interview happening right now, John I want to go to something pretty obscure Matlock Zeti to begin with you really slice and dice, inventory, dynamics and business investment. Exactly. Where are the inventories of American business right now? Yeah. You're absolutely right. And I think it's really important for the near term growth outlook on on some measures inventories. You know, we've had a reasonably big inventory build in that back half of last year and some people I think have built in an inventory drag on growth in the first half of this year. When we look at it. It doesn't look like it's something that should significantly way on production. Instead, it looks to us like you had a big import increase the head of people that were expecting tariffs, and that that really has not built into manufacturing inventories. And if you have to be ISM when manufacturing firms don't think that their inventories are too high at this point. So we do not see a big inventory drag coming in the coming quarter from the US and as a result of that. I think we're above consensus on on US growth, we expect two point three percent growth this year where consensus probably closer to two percent looking at this year. And also we've got about two point four percent. For the median estimate going into next year is when a lot of people seat that deceleration Matt one point nine cassette estimate there while she twenty twenty view, we have some something very similar to that. I think you know, most people are looking out to twenty twenty they're expecting a modest fiscal drag versus the positive fiscal impulse. You had this year? There's some delay in the timing from the fed which can take about eighteen months to work its way through the system. And so we have one point nine percent goes again next year. I think more maybe more interestingly as you go out to twenty twenty one which is a very long time from now. But I think a lot of people expect to continue deceleration in the US in global economy. We actually ended up in twenty twenty one. And I think the reason is with the fed on hold. We've them not getting to restrictive stance. And with the fiscal not being either a strong, either driver drag. There's really no good reason. I don't think for the economy to deviates materially from two very the punchline. Did I hear you? You saying next year one point nine percent? We do. Yeah. If you add on any kind of Peter Hooper Deutsche Bank inflation calculation you talking about a sub four percent nominal GDP. Right. That's correct. Yes. Isn't it? You studied this UCLA? You wanted to go to library at UCLA, folks. Like game of thrones. You went into the library UCLA. Is there any politician in the history of mankind that can deal with a four percent or less nominal GDP? Don't they by definition have to always revert the fiscal expansion? Yeah. I I think you know, the there is a new normal in terms of thinking about growth on the in the nominal side. Whereas historically potential growth was three three percent or above we now potential growth in real terms closer to percent. And so along with that two percent real growth. You actually have pretty good labor market conditions. You have wage growth continue to pick up. We have the unemployment rate falling to three point six percent, which in decades until all that from a, you know, voter perspective from consumer perspective. Actioning looks a lot better than you would expect given two percent real four percent nominal gem. What Mr. Lozada just said there? I have. Never framed on the American economy is just absolutely original. Where we are given a Subir GDP McClay told me the three points. So shouldn't surprise two percent road. GDP is is basically pretension in the minds of many for the US economy. The shouldn't come as a shock. It was unthinkable in my childhood that right is a brand new world out there. But this is the new normal is, absolutely. It is you know, we I think we're a little bit more optimistic on getting productivity a bit higher. There is this tendency as the labor market titans has waitress picks up and incentivizes businesses to do. Cap ex and productivity move higher Souissi potential little bit above two percent. But the new normal is that potential is much lower than it's been historically. The fed funds rate is much lower than it's been historically. We think the feted at this point. And so for for markets. It's a new normal and thinking about how far the fake news. How much volatility you're gonna have fun of the quickly your assumption head the base case for the trajectories in the US economy is based on a fed that goes, no, no hikes next two years. It is it is. And and I think there's two countervailing forces here on on grossly. We're still pretty optimistic market continues to growth picks up on price inflation on the other hand. We don't see that that moving materially higher and in the context of the fed reviewing their two percent. Inflation target perhaps wanting. To get inflation a bit higher if they moved so Najer average inflation targeting regime. We don't see them tightening. As a result of that. This is wonderful was so much with Deutsche Bank. John is just stunning predictions. There starting I guess the flatness for for a good long period by the so, yeah, let's be clear. It goes up against what the administration wants. That's for. Sure. I mean, it's the base case of money communists, that we speak to a most straight looking for two percents up two percents slightly coming into next year. After that. I mean, we lessen the twenty twenty recession call where do you think that I think we've been we've started to price out the right cut stuff a little bit? Just a little bit. This is Bloomberg..

US fed UCLA John China Matthew Zeti Peter Hooper Deutsche Bank Matlock Zeti Bank Deutsche Bank Bloomberg Actioning Mr. Lozada two percent four percent nine percent three three percent
"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:45 min | 1 year ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Suspect that you experienced housing discrimination file a complaint without so we can investigate it. Fair housing is your right? To learn more, visit HUD dot gov slash fairhousing. That's how dot gov slash fair housing or call one eight hundred six six nine nine seven seven seven one eight hundred six six nine nine seven seven seven. A public service message from HUD in partnership with the national fair housing alliance. This term Jonathan Ferrell. Join us later this morning crippling duck surveillance on most unloved bull market into earning season and on the media wars and streaming Christopher Maranghi joins of gabelli funds. And then we see Matthew Zeti of Deutsche Bank on the future for the fed windex of items. Donna get seven AM on Bloomberg eleven three of the Bloomberg business app and bloombergradio dot com. Bloomberg the world is listening. Are you interested in a challenging at exciting career one where you can be part of solving complex challenges across industries and geographies? Bloomberg's ever-expanding technology data news and media services foster innovation empower clients over nearly limitless opportunities for career growth. Visit Bloomberg dot com slash careers today. If you are current job opportunities, Bloomberg LP is an equal opportunity employer. The address once again is Bloomberg dot com slash careers. Asset managers who sees change to launch new strategies at distribution channels or exploit new technology to reengineer. The investor experience are often rewarded however in an industry paralyzed with complexity view act with a dilatot or decisively few run their businesses strategically yet the most competitive managers in the market, no with the right partner and a flexible operating system, you can go boldly toward change with SEI investment manager services. I'm Steve Meyer, president of SEI's investment manager services at SEI. We understand the emerging forces that will define success for asset managers and what firms will need to compete tomorrow. That's why we continually optimize SEI's global operating platform. If your business requires greater agility, our technology, integrative best in class systems and multi asset expertise can be your catalyst for business transformation. We SEI investment manager services, you lead the charge in a competitive marketplace. Learn more at as he is C dot com slash CS. Change. Global business news twenty four hours a day a dot com. Sibling book this to talk on Twitter. This is a Bloomberg business flash from Bloomberg's..

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"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:36 min | 2 years ago

"matthew zeti" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Twelve seventy six ten ounce the euro dollar fifteen seventy one the yen one ten point oh four the european union triggering the first phase of retaliation against the us over its metal import tariffs imposed on national security grounds making good on more than three months of threats to hit american goods material for tad levies the european commission in brussels giving final approval for a twentyfive percent duty on three point two billion dollars of eu imports on a range of us products the duties are to take affect on friday and that's a bloomberg business flash tom and john thanks so much after a lot of searchers surveillance team tried to go out and find an economist who doesn't give a damn about the world cup we succeeded matthew zeti joins us deutsche bank right now is it on the desk at deutsche bank is just like world cup does the thing just stop those germany we're certainly interested in in in in the world cup i worked for a year in london there focused landau but absolutely we're very focused on getting the job done stops what he's doing loved watch enough how to say we're focused absolutely there is there's a lot of interest in the world cup really the only reason you're here's your research report is so darn good i have to actually read every word of this the curious case of fed curve consternation folks we protect the copyright of our guests contact you're japan for that he's brilliant brilliant moment there were you talk about curve flattening and you say wait it's affected by this big balance sheet that we have discuss.

european union us european commission brussels matthew zeti deutsche bank landau bloomberg germany london japan Twelve seventy six ten ounce two billion dollars twentyfive percent three months