1 Burst results for "Matt Hershey"
"matt hershey" Discussed on Real Wealth Real Health
"Here's a great deal. It's time to pounds and we can buy cheaply enough so that we can ride out another year of problems if that's what we have to do, it's it's great, but that's. That's unique. That's ad hoc. It's not systemic. We'll know we'll know when we're out of this thing when things start to trade again and where where sellers are looking at last year's cap rates. Actually transacting. The. Interesting thing from my perspective is that. You know when we were coming out of of two thousand aid and. Depending on who you talk to people on our team, they would say you know never really even paid the price for two thousand eight. Where some things happening, you know the background in the way of quantitative easing in what have you that? Really allowed us to escape in the short term without really feeling the punishment, and no one does that come does come down the line at at some point, but that aside briefly your the question then was nowhere to. We need to see certain financial numbers in order to know warrant starting to make these trades again today. It feels a little bit different in that. The data point that we're looking for is much more qualitative raid, and there's a lot of uncertainty around what the world is going to look like. Going forward from a pure behavioral perspective as opposed to. A financial perspective in so be interested to hear how you think that distinction plays into the ultimate timing of. Any any rebound could expect to see her. Yeah. There was actually I will give a plug here. There was an interesting short article by a guy named Matt Hershey. Who is a business quaint of mine who works at a firm called host while they are? The. Very? Very top echelon of private equity oriented firms in the real estate space, and they've been very active in publishing along thought pieces. As this is going on in Matt Mix exactly that case when he says you know when we were when we were looking at. At reaction to the global financial crisis. You know it was painful. It was horrible it was. Awful, but at least we had very solid numbers on it. We could measure feds reaction. We could look at the banks. We these were all relatively objective data points that were available in that made decision making. Much much easier what you're describing now and and I agree with it is. Going, to be a lot of decisions are not made based on the underlying objective data. They're going to be made by choice for instance. What does this mean for housing in New York City You know the typical the typical you don't high-rise has thirty five stories at an elevator that six feet by six feet. That's has less than optimal in terms in. How does that work well? A lot of that is going to be dependent on how the residents feel about that are they walked into that? Is that a condominium product or or that sort of thing, and so the short answer to what you're saying is, it's going to be really hard to. Get solid metrics on his so much of it is going to be wrapped up in human choice in human feelings where it's not just data driven. It's going to be. Feelings driven and and concern driven. That squish year stuff you can measure it after the fact by seeing. Reactions but it's hard to do it in real time because. It's it's so squishy in it so imprecise if that makes sense. Yeah and the other thing that comes to mind when when you're saying this is you know as far as behavior, but also people's ability to pay rent with what with the job losses, and for for those who are on the unemployment entered getting the federal subsidy. Especially, they're able to pay their rent. You know people who maybe weren't even this much money before now they're making more and they're able to pay rent in. The lower lower income bracket, but as we also talked about their job losses going upstream in so, how how are people going to be able to pay rent in six months? Basically is what I'm getting because we're still going to see more job losses, even though the things will start to reopen, we also have civil unrest, which is a topic for another kind, but that's also going to affect a lot of things. We don't know the repercussions of that yet. So you know as you said it, you know indices are indicators. Sometimes lag, but also on future. Ideals are projections are, but it's so hard because we're getting. We're getting so many. Completely unanticipated unimaginable things getting thrown at us right now. And so you know a lot that I just said, but basically it comes down to you. You know it's almost like moment by moment right now. We don't even know what we're going to be in six months. That's precisely correct because every single. Facet of this every factor that goes into trying to assess how this is going to work okay I. Own a multifamily complex. What am I! collections look like what does the employment history of my current residents who may be? Are they getting close to not being able to pay rent, or are they actually doing a little bit better off for the time being until the federal subsidies run out? How is that going to play into this even in the larger economy? A- personal concern of mine is you know I? Don't know how the economy any I know how we did it. Last time there was a lot of quantitative easing over several rounds, because the assets that had been created got blown up so that they didn't get devalue quite so badly. How does that all play out here? What's what's the dollar will be worth? Are we going to be a period? I mean the classical economics would tell you yet? You write three and four trillion dollars worth of checks in excess of receipts, the only way ad that is to inflate the currency. However you're doing it in a you know a declining economic environment, so are you? Are you stuck like we were back in the late seventies with Kinda stagflation, which no one even knows about now. Where where you have inflation, but stagnation are on an economic front. So these, and in each case, it's sort of like. Okay, what does tenant demand lookalikes four high rise in new? York City I. Don't know, tell me how scared people are about getting into a six by six elevator and I'll let you know more, or is there a you know a staging tax fix that can be done to that to mitigate that problem. What it really boils down to is there these are going and rolling in a sorted out once we start start to see trends emerging as to how much each of these countervailing factors pushes against. Some other factor pushing exactly opposite in coming to an optimal solution and Unfortunately just to get back to Daniels question..