17 Burst results for "Martin Malone"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Get to the markets again and get you an overview of where we stand on the S&P 500 mini, we're barely called Laura. I mean, it's hard to call this risk off. Maybe the better description would be. Pausing for breath and waiting for clarification from all sides after the fall of a missile in Poland, your sense of three 81, 43, and the Bloomberg dollar index. Now just a little bit higher at about a tenth of 1%. I want to get to Martin Malone the alpha book chief economic adviser to try and understand this relative resilience in the global assets. Martin, what do you make of it? And how does it make sense to you? Well, it happened around 12 hours ago, and I think we have to be very, very cautious on jumping to any conclusions. The latest assessment is that it could have been a misfire from Ukraine and we're just going to have to be quite cautious about it. I think the G 7 issued a statement. They were very cautious about it. And there would be significant level number of meetings today. I think the good news is that the G 20 is going on in bally. So all of the leaders that matter are actually in the one place. And I think we've seen that in the last 12 hours with multiple meetings taking place. I mean, a swiftie deescalation Martin good morning, a swiftie escalation is what markets hope for. Do you think that there's any rationale between G and Biden who intimated I suppose a criticism of the nuclear threat
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of us? Bloomberg surveillance must listen. Must watch. I think they made a great decision, separate we are supposed. We demonize it 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television. Saudi Arabia has issued $5 billion in bonds and sukuk in its first foray into international debt markets since last November. It also offered to buy back more than $15 billion in bonds to you between now and 2026. It's about foxman has more. So quite a bit of a shift then and strategy, right? Well, you know what? It seems to really be about continuing its engagement with international debt markets. Sure, Saudi Arabia has made a lot of money on higher oil prices this year. But this is, as you pointed out, the first foray in international debt markets since last November, gulf borrowers haven't been very busy this year. In part, because of those oil revenues. But you know, Saudi Arabia needing to stay engaged in the market in the long term. It has lots of plans to keep building stuff ahead. And so yes, while we are retiring potentially some nearer term debt, pushing out the duration, this gets it into play, gets it in the mind of international investors. You know, I want to point out what we've seen in Saudi bonds recently particularly of looking at your ten year debt. We have a GTV go showing this. It was in a particular run up and yields over the last couple of months, no sign from the fed that that may be changing anytime soon. So maybe a desire to kind of get in while we're still at these 5.2% yields before we see anything moving higher. And Abu Dhabi, so I'm good to see you good to have you back. Abu Dhabi says it will transfer the ownership of the state carry carrier Etihad to the sovereign wealth fund a, DQ. Now what's the thinking behind that Maybe what are the ramifications? Yeah, officially, this part of a policy that Abu Dhabi has had to try and make itself a transport hub. 80 Q already owns a lot of aviation assets with their Abu Dhabi. It's a majority stakeholder there. It actually purchased as well. Some of Etihad's operational assets last year, and then earlier this week, it did a transaction or made an offer for a transaction rather that we leave it with a 59% share in the publicly traded company, Abu Dhabi, aviation, we've seen shares spike in the last couple of days on that. Also important, the potential Succession questions around Tony Douglas, the CEO of Etihad. There's been some speculation significant speculation that he may go and try to lead a new Saudi carrier. If he does leave, it would be helpful, probably, to have someone with this overall vision, some fun with this overall vision. Being able to determine the future of Etihad. And then Australia has ended its recognition of wester Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. What's behind that? If foreign minister penny Wong, calling this decision, a cynical play by the Morrison government, the previous government to win a buy election. They described the conflict and distress that this had created any international community. They hadn't actually physically moved the embassy from Tel Aviv. But this was so this mostly a rhetorical decision rather than one that actually has a huge impact on the ground. This really underscores a lot of the international concern about the policies that Israel has had over the last couple of years in terms of trying to find a peace agreement with the Palestinians. This is something that is a core issue for yair lapid and the upcoming elections. He essentially very critical of Benjamin Netanyahu, the previous prime minister for what he had done some of the hardline policies that he had adopted over the past couple of years. Does this move the needle in the elections? That probably not the case, however. So thank you very much for some of those updates that simulate foxman at the financial center at Doha from the realm of geopolitics that take you back to some of the corporate news. This one from one of the largest companies on the Dubai index. This is the logistics heavyweight aramex. They're announcing a deal. They're basically purchasing the ecommerce enabler platform my U.S.. Now, if you've used shop chip service of RMX, you would have used my U.S.. So this is a competitor and it comes at quite a significant ticket price here for approximately all cash at 265 million U.S. dollars, the transaction marks AMX's largest acquisition so far this year and they are saying the press release that they've obtained all the necessary regulatory approvals and they've completed the acquisition. We'll see how the stock reacts at the open in about an hour's time. I take you from aramex to equity futures in the United States where we're looking at the continuation of this pop back in stocks. I mean, over the last two trading sessions, the NASDAQ has been up almost 4% to 4.2%. Now look at the extended by an additional percent. We're talking earlier to Martin Malone from alpha book and he was saying yes, this does look like a bear market rally, but this could extend well into 2023 and largely depends on what kind of fed communication we're going to get as we count down to the end of 2022. Looking out at US Treasury yields as well where we are still close to the highest level since 2008, U.S. tens at four O two, 52, we're looking ahead to the beige book and some of the housing data later in the day as well. Much more
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"New kashkari signaling the battle isn't over for the economy. Markets though are taking a cue from the strong corporate earnings and the latest fund manager survey from Bank of America suggests full capitulation suggesting a rally is set for 2023 screams of macro capitulation and that's the capitulation and policy capitulation. We'll come back to capitulatory behavior in a moment. Let's get to Martin Malone. Chief economic adviser to Alphabet, Martin, kashkari. There's no reason for me to pause because inflation is so sticky. And if we don't see progress, why would I stop at 4.5 .4 .75? Is that the zone of policy mistake rearing its head again? We're probably policy mistake on the way up. We didn't get started soon enough. When do we anchor policy mistake on doing too much? I think, unfortunately, managed, it's very good morning. It's very, very difficult to say. This second half of 2022 is very interesting because the consensus forecasts of inflation haven't really budged. In the second half of this year, after been ramped up over the last 18 months, but central banks have hiked 200 basis points and markets of hikes even more than central banks. So we all know they're behind. We're going to get potentially another 150 basis points before the end of the year from the fed on both November 2nd and on December 14th. But the big problem for all of us, but the Central Bank and the markets is the road over it inflation and the big declines in inflation are only going to come in 2023 and the big rollover is not going to come up until April and May. And unfortunately, markets with excessive volatility don't like waiting. And this is the dilemma. Both of the conditions were ripe for a short squeeze in equities and we're seeing quite a bit of a move to the upside over the last three trading sessions on the S&P 500. We are above the key 200 week moving average GTV go for the additional perspective. What kind of sounds are you looking for here that could tell you that this is just a bear market rally? Well, potentially it's a bear market rally. It all depends on what happens in 2023. As we just mentioned, central banks are going to do at that last they've been pulled to high rates. Now they all want to hike rates. That's pretty, very good news. And very good news for the U.S. unlike any country in the world. They have a hugely strong dollar around 20% in the last 18 months, which is also an anti inflationary measure. So the surprise of 2023 will probably be a collapsing inflation. Remember inflation in 2020? Okay, with a collapsing inflation then, what does that do to the dollar? We're looking at the Bank of America's survey. It's screaming capitulation, macro, investor, and policy, cash is at levels. We haven't seen since 2001 and investors are heavily underweight equities, but 68% see the dollar overvalued. If inflation collapses next year, will the bully in the schoolyard the dollar roll over and take a thump. Yes, so we have one word for this medicine. That is, you know, the most of this year, everything collapsed stocks, bonds, commodities, crypto. But if we shift from the stagnation trade, everything imploding to the peak trade and the peak trade is centered on one issue and that's inflation. He conflation means peak interest rates, he can face and peak interest rates in America means depict daughter and we've been bullish dollar for almost two years expecting DX one to go to one 20 We almost touched one 15. The third value of the past half century. So the answer to your question is all down to the word peak. Big inflation pick rates and we will get big dollar. I'm looking at the UK story where the government is catching a breath even if it's just for a few hours maybe, same for the Bank of England. And for some investors as well, run me through what the thinking is on year end when it comes to the inflation data that is expected late in the day because that is the market's live question. Will 10% inflation break UK guilt markets? And no, we've already broken the UK guild markets. UK guilds go into almost 5%, mortgage rates in the UK going very, very similar to the U.S., almost close to 6 or 7%. And the major problem actually is the Bank of England itself and the Bank of England has a policy rate just around 2%. This policy raise has to be 5% or potentially even higher. So we don't have any peak in UK inflation. And we're not confident in the roll over. We're not confident in this page at the decline. So unfortunately, the Bank of England is still in the bad box. Martin fantastic analysis, much appreciated Martin Malone, the chief economic adviser at Alphabet. Thanks again. We said much more to come on the show
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"6 30 on Wall Street good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. We are just about three hours away from the open of U.S. trading time for the 5 things you need to know to start your day and up first this morning. It's all about the pound, Sterling is a weakening sharply hitting an all time low of one O three against the dollar overnight. It has since rebounded to 1.0734 against the dollar and we get more from Bloomberg markets reporter Heather Burke. The pounds isn't a pretty desperate state. Basically, the UK government announced Friday this radical package to tax cuts and there's concern that the stimulus is going to drive the country's debt to unaffordable levels. The pound is looking more and more likely that Sterling is going to fall to parity against the dollar this year based on option market pricing. So there's a 60% probability spot that we're going to hit parity compared to 32% on Friday. Bloomberg's Heather Burke says the currency story is also playing out in UK stocks and we're seeing consumer Staples, which benefit from weaker Sterling, rising in London. And it's all putting pressure on the Bank of England, Karen, alpha book, chief economist Martin Malone says the Central Bank should have been more aggressive at last week's meeting. The fed actually started off on Wednesday with a very, very hawkish hike. The Bank of England then came in with just a very minimal hike. It's basically just not in the game at all. The Bank of England needs to hike interest rates by two or 300 basis points. Even so, alpha book chief economist Martin Malone does not see the Bank of England calling an emergency meeting to stem the slide in Sterling. On Nathan, let's turn to politics now where it's all about Italy this morning, Georgia maloney is when a clear majority in the Italian election, she's set to become the country's first female prime minister at the head of the most right-wing government since World War II and we get the latest from Bloomberg's francine lacqua in Rome. Job gender Whitney is a clear winner. Now I've seen her on stage multiple times. Some of the policies are extremely concerning to what people and Italy, but also people in Europe. This is on the values level. She is very Christian. She is anti giving more rights to LGBTQ communities. She's very anti immigration. She's very close to Victor Orban and frankly, she keeps on saying that she wants to put it to the first Bloomberg's francais laqua in Rome reports that Georgia maloney's alliance claimed 43% of the vote. And we're seeing oil continue its march lower this morning, Karen Brent slipped below $85 a barrel for the first time since January. Checking prices now, Brent is at 85 67, while West Texas intermediates down a half percent at $78 38 cents. That's the 5 things you need to know to start your day. Futures are moving lower this morning and straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports. This is Bloomberg. And at 6 33 on Wall Street, we're at 59° in Central Park still doing with that crash on eastbound Grand Central Parkway after the key gardens interchange, more coming up in traffic, first Michael Barr with what else is going on in New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael. Good morning, Nathan. Florida governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency as Ian is now a hurricane. Desantis and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Now more than half of enterprises think they need a complete supply chain revamp They're fed up with massive hits to revenue profits and reputation Thinking the same can help Hundreds of Fortune 500 and global 2000 enterprises count on G EP software to transform their supply chains for greater agility and resilience with complete visibility and better control GE P software strategy managed services Influential conversations from Bloomberg television Here's Manus cranny Let's see what kit jukes makes of as Martin Malone called it a vulgar style verbal shock was lael brainard's comments of Volker style verbal shock for bonds Well it was certainly received as a shark I mean I think it's pretty clear now that the fed sees inflation as the clear and present danger in front of it and everything that's happening other than that that threatens growth we'll deal with that when we really see properly how it's affecting the economy at the moment It sounds a holding up needs to be well The job numbers are good wage growth is strong What we have right in front of our noses is a big inflation problem and we need to hit it with a big hard hammer and we're going to do exactly that I think that was the message And the market's got to react I mean to answer your question about how far does this go this goes until other markets react enough because the US Treasury always gets to sell it its bonds If it doesn't sum up the fed it will sum for the private sector we will find a yield The money will come out of corporate bonds mortgages equities even down down the road That's where it will come out of to go into the treasury market so that we can fund the United States And it's when the pain is felt down there in a big way that's when the nut has been cracked and the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Council Influential conversations from Bloomberg television Here's Manus cranny Martin Malone is the chief economic adviser at Alphabet the core between G and Biden You said exposed a deepening divide You say the fact that Russia's aggression in Ukraine or even the Chinese didn't even use the word invasion Now from Friday to Sunday on CBS the ambassador saying you know there's a lot of disinformation You're negative on the overall read out aren't you China's main point and I think we can see it at the leadership level So we have to look at vice minister level and also you can see Yang Xi Chi in Rome before the patent C meeting and simply they feel that globalization through sanctions policy has been weaponized So you see that the basically mentioned two things it takes two hands to clap with basically means the proverb of they have to sit down and sort of figure out a solution here And I think that's basically China was trying to get to some levels of solutions last week And now it's all going to be super Thursday in Europe that we're going to have American Europe city down to also try and get some type of diplomatic solution as Ukraine and militia and talks continue Here more conversations like this one on Bloomberg television streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings The Bloomberg business app Quick take This is a Bloomberg business flash From new begs European headquarters here in London I'm Caroline Hepburn with this Bloomberg radio business flash so bond markets get a real wake-up call from Jerome Powell He's ready to back a half point rate hike in May if necessary bonds sing In terms of U.S. yields right now two 32 on the ten year so up by three basis points just starting trading here in Europe a 48 basis points for Germany is also heading hard by about a basis point The ECB for markets we see two rate rises from the ECB actually now priced in as for the U.S. what is priced in 50 basis points for may then 25 basis points for June July September November Also as a consequence really for this a much more hawkish rhetoric from pal the Japanese yen falling to a 6 year low against the U.S. dollar Japanese yen trades at one 2041 So softer by 8 tenths of 1% Bloomberg dollar spot index is stronger three tenths of 1% Moscow stock trading won't be open today the S&P says that it will withdraw ratings on all Russian entities as for European stocks they did do much yesterday futures pointing lower down though only around a tenth of 1% now S&P 500 indie features also down a tenth of 1% Natural gas prices fell yesterday in Europe down about 8% warmer weather part.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Issues around vat the green levees the warm homes funds But another one that has also been flagged significantly is the idea of a windfall tax on oil and gas profits Is the industry expecting that from the Chancellor how much would it help do you think We don't know whether or not the chance that we will do that it seems fairly unlikely but in the case that they do how much it will help it depend entirely on the scale of that windfall tax It depends on how it is attributed as well If it is just a blanket blanket refund to consumers that will be less effective than targeted support for vulnerable consumers But every consumer is going to suffer more in terms of cost of energy Because the cost is simply rising So it's completely down to how the Chancellor does it and what scale they do that at So that was Charles wood the deputy director of policy at energy UK the leading energy industry trade association You can listen to our full energy special Bloomberg Westminster as a podcast It's on our Bloomberg website or download it at Apple music or your preferred radio app today well worth listening to that as we expect Boris Johnson to come up with a full energy security plan this month Also we'll have much more in terms of but if politics at 12 noon on Bloomberg Westminster I'll be speaking to the labor MP Janet Davy who represents the British Iranian national and nusha asuri who was of course released to the UK from Iran alongside nazanin zagari Radcliffe just last week also Chile osuji is the former International Criminal Court president and judge So that also live at 12 noon on Bloomberg Westminster So on the war in Ukraine catch it live at 12 noon Now coming up next on Bloomberg daybreak Europe Obviously speaking to Martin Malone the chief economic adviser at Alphabet what are the off ramps now for Vladimir Putin And how are markets.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Driven by politics or by science There may be how we keep track of our lives from here on out What do you think the political effects of that impatience will be And through it all there's been Bloomberg We begin on Capitol Hill the most accurate business world and healthcare news before and after The fundamentals do not justify this price action Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening It's a huge day for markets equities and bonds the vigilantes are alive in the bond market The spillover into the equity market S&P 500 done 1% now but then NASDAQ grind zero when you reevaluate your growth to value proposition out of growth maybe it's too early to call it into value but what you've got is Ned Davis saying it's about the speed of this cycle as the rates market prices in 7 rate hikes use of some for Bernstein say buy equities despite the rise in use because the real yield can rise further Mizuho say look they're not seeing a sustained meltdown at the moment but there is definitely a shakedown in equities Absolutely It's been accelerating to the downside It is moments like these were consensus get splintered and you've seen a lot of different perspective on key issues here as we try and grapple with these potential 7 rate hikes from the fed in 2022 at least as priced by the swap markets BNP Paribas is cut their S&P 500 year round target to 4900 because of that outlook The market's life team has been doing some thinking about the jump and yields right Because this massive jump in your two year yields and I'll see the biggest one day move since 2009 And they're saying that the S&P 500 is still close to nearly 300 points above the January low And that gives U.S. yields actually the green light to push even higher And if equities are going to start to set off more aggressively money could move quickly into bonds again and it would limit the upside in yields What was the two way street isn't it It is indeed what the market is grappling with is bullard lit the fire under a 50 basis point hike for March Martin Malone has just been with us saying that that might not be such a huge shock it's actually what comes next Now for the dollar what you've got here is it rolled.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Bloomberg the world is listening Markets are on the move I want to jump in with you straight into the price action here on the S&P 500 mini NASDAQ futures down by as much as 1% as the market not just deals with the hot inflation data the hottest in about four decades but also with the swap markets now pricing in 7 25 basis point moves in 2022 There's this thinking how this is going to affect risk assets probably Mizuho doesn't yet see a sustained meltdown in risk assets and BNP Paribas on the other side of that they've actually cut their year on target to $4900 I think it just depends on the pace of these hikes when they come if you get a 50 basis point hackers Martin Malone just said to us now is a possibility he's channeling his inner 1994 Bond hike moves But the stock markets alpha Bernstein say look you can buy these equities Because real yields still remains negative This is the bond market We've just had Martin from alpha books saying to give already had this huge move in the bond market He says you can see another hundred basis points on ten year government bond yields years of this futures cash is closed we're above 2% so that is the risk Another hundred basis points in the very very near term Yeah absolutely And the dollar on the move as well getting charged up higher by the latest set of headlines That's of course affecting some of the pairs the Aussie dollar and the kiwi in particular this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Reacting to the four decade high U.S. CPI print Soft traders this morning pricing in 7 rate hikes this year Martin Malone is an alpha book where he's the chief economic adviser Martin You talk about an activist fed The risk now is 7 hikes this year in the market Bullard says he would not think a 50 basis point is something of shock and or how real is the risk of 50 basis points and would it at this stage really be a shock Good morning I don't think it would be a shock now because the markets have priced in this And we keep coming back to the market levels what we've seen here is no move by the feds but what we've seen is that the markets have priced in a 152 hundred basis points worth of fed hikes over the next world in 12 months So the markets have delivered significant rate hikes at well ahead of the fed Martha it's the only way for the fed to get inflation back on the control is to engineer an economic slowdown Maybe even force a recession And how do you invest their own that Well I think first of all the fed has to recognize like many other central banks that they've made significant mistakes here The major approach was to waste and see invasion was trying to treat and we would see a peak out in Q four And the peak out now inflation looks like it could be Q one or it could even shift into Q two And we know why the inflation levels are very very high very low base effects the energy is around half the level of inflation and just to dramatic levels of demand for durable goods from U.S. consumers These are the three reasons why inflation is up at 7% And in some U.S. state actually inflation is at 9% but the bottom line is the fed is just way behind where they need to be And they need to bend their agency approach and become very activist And that's what happened is that the market is there to shift now that the fed will have to quite significantly accelerate what they're doing So the risk in an activist fed in an accelerated mode If I look at the 5 tens I just want to give it to the guys on the chart a 5 two 6 it's in the GTV library What is the risk that this curve not just flattens but inverts and to use this point the fed inadvertently provokes some kind of a major slowdown near recession Well the country just don't have any choice here and what it used to be is that the fed was sort of the global leading Central Bank And when the fed shifted with actual policy moves then everybody else piled in And what we've seen already is almost 50 40 to 50 global central banks have moved ahead of the fed And we've seen some advanced economy in central banks move Iceland Norway New Zealand the UK it's highly unusual historically to see the fed so far behind so many central banks And actually the leading central banks actually are central banks like the Czech Republic and Chile not the fed Okay So let's talk about the trajectory of yields because that's what the market's life team has been asking And we saw some dramatic moves in U.S. two year yields the biggest one they moved since about 2009 How much further will treasury yields rise margin We call the rate structure in the U.S. has moved from zero one two to two three four and what we mean by two three four is at U.S. ten year yields sort of benchmark for everybody Everybody can see no matter what asset class you trade Treasuries are a 2% investment grade bonds which are way over $10 trillion or at 3% and mortgages now are at 4% We have a two three four structure And that's probably not enough to slow the economy down to the level that we need And it probably makes the end to further fiscal moves because we've had fiscal moves in the last two years of 25% of GDP And we've had a Central Bank of almost a similar balance sheet of a similar amount And this is basically what has to be curtailed and now we could ship to what the UK is doing which is both monetary and fiscal tightening at exactly the same time So we're probably in for an abrupt evening of GDP in coming quarters So the two three four structure that you referred to treasuries investment grade and mortgages are how much higher do you think the T three four structure needs to get to to slow the economy down and what the biggest move perhaps be in the credit space relative to treasuries Yes so I think basically we moved over a hundred basis points on all of those interest rates So we probably need to move another 100 Because it's all the chicken and egg situation how far we look like we have full employment we look like we've got an effective funds rate of 0.1 And so we believe in a hundred basis points and you can see the markets have priced in a hundred basis points in the first half of the year So we are already want this to be and the second half of the year is only 50 So this is looking like it's going to be like 1994 and that is we start in 1994 to 3% and we eventually got to 6% 300 basis points per maybe managed to remember But during 1994 the markets forces every single day And this is a move from wait and see to activist By then some big calls there We like that on this program but it's more than Malone He's the alpha book chief economic adviser On that note let's circle back briefly to the market action because we're sliding ever lower on futures in the United States on the equity side of things so at the moment on the S&P 500 mini called quite a bit lower and on the NASDAQ futures call this low as 1% as the market tries to digest the news of what we might get from the fed in terms of 7 potential rate hikes as the swap markets would suggest plenty more ahead This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg youssef Thank you very much for that Jules Let's get you done a bit of a preview of what's on the agenda for today We get German and twist CPI data that comes in at 11 and 1130 a.m. to buy time And in the same hour we're also getting still some earnings from a heavyweights like British American tobacco and on the Russian side you have rawson after the energy space and then you've got a great decision out of Russia actually It's two 30 that you need to factor in and then in the United States you have the minion energy they report before the market So to come we're going to talk regional economics for Goldman Sachs for plus the Uber Mina Pakistan general manager said Paul joins the team But up next it is those market moves on the red hot inflation print with the alphabet chief economic adviser Martin Malone who debates an activist fed This is Bloomberg Would you say it's more important to gather information fast or to have it first or to be the most accurate They can really move the needle when it comes to programs Is the level of support you get from companies for this What if you don't have to choose It also has enormous importance for the labor market How do they get ahead of different administrations we see this move towards digital currencies Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening We used to take our freedom of movement for granted not anymore It's not just the people who work for the airlines and it's natural to feel grateful for the things that kept you going Does America have.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Eldin is in Abu Dhabi for other pack We've got the news makers lined up for you across the next hour from Abu Dhabi as they say the new economy form kicks off in just 48 hours So we're descending on Singapore for that The world leaders and business voices were having the face to face discussion at a critical time in the evolution of the global economy We'll feature back to back lineup of high profile voices acts of Weber you from UBS No Quinn from HSBC the former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and the commerce secretary Gina raimondo a timely moment to take breath take stock and reset Henry Kissinger just two years ago of course calling the foothills of a Cold War here at the new economy form I want to take you to the foothills of the next potential Cold War It's in the bond market 5 days that rock the 5 year paper Took it up by 20 basis points We're off those highs this morning This is a convulsion in rates which is potentially got the ability to unseat some of the risk markets You're dealing with inflation at 6% You have a taper which is live and you have the Bank of America survey which has 86% say the taper will be done by the end of the second quarter And 56% see a rate hike in quarter three of next year So we see it a meaningful short covering go through on some of these markets But I want to show you what convulsion looks like It's more of versus liquidity Marvel is the volatility in the bond index versus liquidity which is imploding These two indicators are moving diametrically opposed directions That ladies and gentlemen and everybody else it's tuning in can potentially lead you to a var shock Let me take you to the equity markets no great fur or hook la la to be made of the American equity markets this morning But I take you to Europe 5 days record highs Richmond trading at a record high By the way there was no rolexes left in the window displays as I went through to buy airport They can't get any stock Richmond record high Deutsche telecom raising its guidance now The flow show from Bank of America says on stocks in Europe It's the only major region to see equity outflows Martin Malone sent me some stuff overnight on one top He's talking about you need to ramp up your vaccine I put America is likewise in the UK for vaccine number three or booster number three if you're gonna make the momentum last Austria goes into locking in people who are not vaccinated way for in Germany Goldman Sachs says the rally will continue in European equities fear not The rally will continue 13% upside is left in the market You want a barbell approach You want some value and you want some growth stocks in there Go miss stocks are long Goldman Sachs are long I get anybody else go wrong Let's get to annabelle drillers She's in Hong Kong annabelle Thanks menace Well it's all eyes on the China data dump that we had about a few hours ago now The numbers looking better than what economists had been expecting but it's still not out of the Woods just yet So if you can take a look here you can see retail sales industrial output both are beating on what economists have been expecting So certainly offering some level of relief to policymakers but certainly still a lot of headwinds in the months ahead and so that does lease and question marks everywhere authorities go next and you can talk more about that with in just a moment But flipping a board now for a check on the broader markets and we can see that China is still leading sentiment lower the CSI 300 and the hang sang both declined today Chinese property developers they are our main watch for us as well because we're seeing the developers resort to more extreme measures now to show up cash the likes of sunak China issuing new shares selling a stake in its property management unit Elsewhere we are seeing stocks looking a little bit more positive The nikkei climbing half a percent We didn't have that industrial production data at earlier rather We did see it sitting steady still in contraction and territory down 5.4% on the month This is certainly a key watch point for us here with that supply chain crunch Meanwhile we do have the BOJ governor corrode just speaking now He's speaking about the pace of the recovery and consumer spending saying that that does look quite uneven though we can't expect some sort of pickup and that it is of crucial importance to support households there And meanwhile one stock that is surging today that is P B FinTech The parent of online insurance marketplace policy to bizarre over in India Now we had seen initial share sales demand for that stock heavily oversubscribed you can see it up nearly 20% today Nana And about thank you very much at the very latest market update there from Hong Kong 200 nations signed off on the UN's cop 26 climate pact The deal it broke new ground in the fight against global warning But several delegates were left dissatisfied with the final agreement watering down the language on the ending of the use of coal following pressure from China and India cop 26 president Alex Sharma said the compromise was necessary to get the deal over the line I'm deeply sorry I also understand the deep disappointment But I think as you have noted it's also vital that we protect this package Let's bring in Jason Rogers Jason listen to Alex Sharma there There was a sense of disappointment versus John Kerry who says you know we're at the beginning of some substantial evolution Where do you see the take on the Glasgow climate pact I mean I think a lot of the disappointment is going to be around fossil fuels principally coal It is the dirty fossil fuel India and China were among those nations that basically got the tax water down so that we're talking about phasing down rather than phasing out the use of fossil fuels The context here in China is we just had industrial production and we've just seen that actually coal production rose to a record in October And that is in the context of an energy crisis here where Beijing has been forced to tell miners to dig up more utilities to burn more coal in order to get over this energy crisis So that's the context that.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Day the Bloomberg markets podcast with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller Are there some sectors that you want to have more or less exposure to We've got a vaccinate the whole world of Melissa of today's Wall Street actions Bloomberg intelligence Bloomberg opinion and influential newsmakers The bond market was the boss Bloomberg markets with all Sweeney and Matt Miller Subscribe today at Bloomberg radio dot com The Bloomberg business app or iTunes The S&P 500 fell the most since October on the back of the latest inflation reading the GMO founder Jeremy grantham thinks the fed is not handling the situation correctly This time the faith in the fed is so complete that when they say it's temporary we believe it The fed in my opinion hasn't done a thing right since Paul Volcker who was brilliant All of the others have encouraged a chain series of really dangerous asset bubbles Some severe warnings there from Jeremy grantham on the other side of the world China's stress property bomb market got some positive news I have a ground averting another default and we learned that the distress developer has paid delayed interest on two of its $3 bonds Is enough to stir the risk sentiment at state street artifice joins me Copeland Pfizer's head of emia investment research strategy I mean what a lambasting from Jeremy grantham on the capacity of the fed It's our blind faith in the fed and they've encouraged dangerous bubbles Is there a real risk That the fed could be seriously behind the curve when I look at these prints around the world The U.S. the highest in 30 years Japan the highs in 30 years Germany and the highest since 1977 It's the fed risking behind the curve Is it worth it Good morning Good morning Thanks for having me Yeah I do think that whether the fetish risking being behind the curve this will be the truest test of the fed's data driven policy that we've seen for decades And it's really about now it feels almost categorical that inflation is high And it's going to remain high than higher than what any kind of transitory definition would dictate So it's really now a question of looking at employment as well And if employment numbers start to come in that stronger than they have in the recent past And I think we are going to see a real push on action from the fed maybe a moving forward of tapering and that's certainly what the market is pricing right now So I think this is the biggest test with the set of space for a very long time Now a lot of people I'm just getting the right chance number here A lot of people have come on the show and they've chasing me for being obsessed about tapering But I was really only doing what everybody else was obsessed about They said I should be much more interested in where the terminal rate is So Martin Malone sent me a WhatsApp last night I've got a lovely chart for you The market's priced in 5 hikes 5 by the end of 2023 So in this cycle the market is saying 1.23% And if I look back in the 2000s it was 400 basis points in the 2010s it was 200 basis points So do you think that this next cycle when it starts and when it ends will be one and a quarter percent I think that's a reasonable effort but what we would say and our kind of our central case for rates over the medium to long term is that there are more secular pressures more long-term pressures which are going to keep rates low then they're going to see rates go up And so for us this terminal rate is not going to be anywhere near as high as it was decades ago like we say when inflation pressures were where were last where they are now So for us inflation may be less transitory than the fed would have liked us to believe but at the same time we don't see rates rocketing up and getting to the levels that they were back in the 90s by any stretch Hedging for inflation traditionally you me and the group think perhaps people that we live with we talk about bonds they talk about yen they talk about tips they talk about various ways of protecting any level Is there any discussion on taking a little bit of Bitcoin Maybe via ETF because the relationship I started to show with this the relationship between Bitcoin and Tanya break evens is almost almost like for like it's a .9 correlation coefficient of the 40 day on the 40 day charge Are you talking about Bitcoin Are you taking are you prepared to take a Bitcoin exposure with an inflation hedge mindset I don't think and we don't think that that Bitcoin has any relation to at the moment to financial market assets It's much more driven by retail and investor sentiment and flows But for us these correlations which have developed over the last few months are actually fused offense terminology transitory We don't think that they're kind of long-lasting correlation So for us when we look at inflation we think about hedges we have an overweight to real commodities and we've had those for a while We're finding more and more clients coming into our real asset strategy And for us that is the way to hedge against the inflation with real assets and in particular commodities We've moved away from gold and looked at more of a basket of real commodities tips as you say as well They're one of the truest inflation hedges And having some exposure like you mentioned as well to say they've been currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc So for us maybe not Bitcoin but certainly a basket of real assets and some diversification from safe haven currencies as well I'll tap I'm switching the pension portfolio over to the slightly older style portfolio construct I'm quite happy with what I know Real assets suit me I'll tap Qassam Thank you very much State street global advisers had of Amy investment strategy research over.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Improved meaningfully late in the quarter Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Juliet This is Bloomberg menace Jill thank you very much We tackle the regional markets with Credit Suisse head of Mina research Fahrenheit iqbal he joins me shortly but up next the broader market discussion alphabet chief economist Martin Malone joins me to discuss fed inflation and as if still full bull on risk When you reorganize and declutter we're probably the first thing you decide to keep Is there any serious contemplation of sanctions against China detailed financial and business reporting Tell us more about your customers and how they're doing now Expert analysis You're basically just changing a $5 bill into 5 ones Definitely essential Looking at high yield where does that take you these days Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening The composer Joseph Haydn famously said I listened more than I studied It sounds like a law school hypothetical Here at Bloomberg it's the same thing Do you maintain that low rate regime Can you see our two years How do you build a strategy with that eventuality in mind Experts information news The push sets up a potential fight What do we know about how it will go public Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com Bloomberg the world is listening The only way to start the morning is with optimism Jobs recovery was sluggish A lot of people agree on that Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan farrow and Lisa Abramovich Finally we got some of branwell's gloom to get in there The ultimate south signal might be when lasik capitulates Bloomberg surveillance Must watch Lisa your data point Go Tom you're great Never change We see mornings at 7 eastern on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television There are a lot of ways to look at the world right now Interesting that you've got an overweight on Hong Kong And the more of them you can access the better What has to be his strategy Perspective Who's doing school best clarity How do we get it so that the benefits.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Causing pain in plenty of places But one of our guests this week said Mina markets are well positioned to go into the final stretch of the year on a higher note and higher than expected hydrocarbon prices All of a catalog had a fixed income and global portfolios that masha capital joined us on Sunday So we have a contrarian view relative to I think a lot of the guests that have bid on your show We'd rather be in 30 year bonds than the short end right now and one of those reasons is oil If I take oil because it's very topical right now everyone's talking about oil leading to higher inflation But ultimately if oil does linger at these high levels and sticks around at $85 a barrel and then he goes to 90 or a hundred by year end That's expensive oil is going to choke off growth and that means it's likely to pull down the long end of the yield curve in our view and potentially you'll see great rising at the short end and that's what kind of phenomenon has played out with a flattening of the yield curve in recent days And we think that could continue into yearend You know all of our I think probably your early with the call I think possibly the world will follow you roubini was with me last week He wanted to be short of duration He wants to be longer of tips You're taking the other side of that trade So can I ask you Martin Malone sent me a chart over the weekend Two year yields Oliver have doubled in the United States of America over the past month I mean this puts it in context for you Don't know whether you can see it on the feedback to yourself I'm going all the way back to the 1960s So is this the top of this run in the repricing on the short end of the curve in the U.S. which translates to Middle East markets The top end of the pricing particularly as I said if commodity prices linger for longer and people start pricing in high rate rises next.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Do we really think what we're seeing now is going to move the dial on the medium term inflation attic And in fact you know I don't think that that's obvious I think the transitory component I use a perfect component And you see the wages and commodities and all the things like that So yeah you're probably an inflection point I'm a big camp of those who believe that those are in the main transitory I think that central banks would be able to get through them without having to depart very significantly from the plans that they have As the central banks taper rates go up It's not terrible Laws inflation isn't out of control There's a lot of debt out there And movements in interest rates will have a big impact Essential banks have some tricky calls to make and we all depend on them getting them right They should concern Inflation concerns that you've got music and me You've got to do for one inflation concerns There's certainly topping the agenda at the annual membership meeting A center of bankers face rising pressures Martin Malone joins me this morning Chief economist Alphabet Martin the narrative there We're going to debate this for the next three months by whether we're going to see continued rising inflation The consensus seems to be from every bit that joins me is yes You have a point about growth Everybody talks about stagflation In other words rising inflation and crashing growth You say we must be brave and look through you do not believe that the growth drop will crash on a permanent basis Why It's basically simply the drag from the delta variant We were going to have quite a phenomenal summer in Europe and in America But then the delta variant came along and was impacted almost all economies in July August and September And we can see it in the last two monthly payroll reports much much weaker than expected And we need to see dramatic levels of job growth And the economy is now fully reopened We're shifting now from pandemic to endemic And the vaccine rollout is 6 and a half billion units It will be 10 billion by the end of January And this is given a fantastic boost to growth for Q four and Q one So I would not get hung up on low growth at the present time It's actually future growth levels and we're very positive on future growth levels over the coming quarters Then high high can future inflation levels go Martin I started this show with coal up 70% which in some ways is idiosyncratic It gets hoarding Aluminium the highest since 2008 And oil up 14 15% in the past 30 Sessions Is that what's driving ultimately driving the inflation narrative at the moment the energy component does that endure I honestly don't think it will endure simply because there is supply constraints and supply can actually be switched on So if we just look at OPEC has a very good chance to increase supply next year Russia has even then some of the states that have not been around for quite a long time like in Libya Iraq Iran So supply can be switched on on oil and known as the major producers want $100 or greater than above or a $100 oil because it will create significant difficulties for them going forward But the one big thing that everybody is missing on inflation we've spent 30 years trying to find inflation Now we have a little bit of inflation and everybody's running for to jump onto the table This should be welcomed not actually something that is going to be destabilizing for markets Hurrah Somebody finally that comes on the TV and says this is why we had ten years of QE Well done Martin Malone How do I train around it A little bit of inflation Is 5% inflation and healthy healthy What is a healthy level of inflation Martin And how do I position for that the Genie that's just come out of the bottle No I wouldn't go as far as 5% but levels above 2% are good at 3% level would be excellent for us in prices And then that would be with global growth at around 3% as well So we would have nominal growth of 5 or 6% That's a very good environment for any company And any economy to be involved in The one thing is that we are basically shifting from mass dislocations and we're trying to get back all the gaps in labor markets in commodity markets in consumer markets And that's going to just take time and the delta varied as I said disrupted that over the last three months And we just have to be a little bit more patient about the recovery setting itself down Patience is something that bond traders are not famed for and equity traders I suppose are a little bit more used to I can't talk for FX traders So Martin crossed the assets for me on a you think that we'll get back to 3% would return to 3% inflation with a round of 3% growth level Tell me what I've got to do in bonds first of all with your scenario 2022 quick call Bond markets we need to see higher yields This is very very good news We do not need to see lower yields lower yields is bad news It's deflationary disinflationary So 2% ten year bond yields in the short term We should be able to see levels above that Obviously we don't want the speed trade to go on because it will disrupt factors but 20 30 basis points in yields higher from here over the next four weeks is fine And then above 2% early next year Martin in 30 seconds given the scenario you've laid out for me on oil sir do I fade the move Or do you think we spike above a hundred before you fade the move in oil No you can trade the move from now I think oil prices are very good oil prices the current level there is no major supply justification for larger oil prices larger than here Demand is recovered very nicely to around 98 million barrels a day It was 90 last year very good news The producers do not want $100 oil And therein lies the point Thank you very much chief economist to add alphabet There's plenty of oil from the U.S. from Libya from Saudi Arabia We'll debate that point throughout the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"martin malone" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Tilt? From the FOMC could be the shock to come. Certainly the Bears are minding in anticipation. These the bond markets yields at 1.48% KK or Henry McVey. We'll hear more from him. In a moment infection is transitory. And this inflation psycho this boundary pricing narrative will take us to to And a half percent alphabet securities was with his yesterday, Martin Malone said. It would be a dereliction of duty in the Fed if they did not confirm that they're talking about taper because there's been a supply shock in the second quarter in the bond market to Bitcoin up by one and a quarter percent this morning up 9% since Friday, Paul Tudor joints I like a little bit of Bitcoin in my portfolio as a diversify. Is absolutely bullish on this. We seem to have capitulated, Don't we? We were talking about a break below the 200 day moving average careering towards 20,000 that is so historical so quickly for the moment another day, another Bitcoin story, But let's also talk about stocks because, Wow, I mean, it's all about Tech again. Not too long ago that industry was the worst performing So far this year on the S and P 500. The recent flood fund flows indicate that there is improving sentiment towards technology. Broadly at the moment of the NASDAQ futures were called about 1/10 of 1% higher JPMorgan, saying that the Fed tapering should commence from early next year as policymakers take steps to normalize policy. So what the strategists are advising clients to do is Basically stay long and financials. Consumer plays rebuild exposure to traditional cyclical. So that includes capital goods and semiconductors. Quick thoughts here on the Aussie dollar as well. 77 Cents, then just a little bit of downside there after the Arba sketched out several scenarios towards QE program that's due to be decided at the July meeting, but basically, members thought it would be premature to consider seizing the program. The Aussie dollar under pressure off the back of that the rest of markets turning around this morning, Julius Sally has that from Singapore jewels. 10 minutes, So we had Hong Kong and China come back online, and we did see some weakness there, which halted earlier rally on the CIA Asia Pacific index, although it is now back in the black and holding it three month highs. China, Of course, signal singled out rather at the G seven and then urging NATO not to exaggerate its military power China, saying it doesn't pose systemic challenges to other nations. You have seen weakness coming through Also in the back of the fact that the PBOC didn't offer any extra liquidity, and we've been seeing weakness coming through in uranium stocks and copper stocks to elsewhere, Japan looking pretty good people familiar with the Bank of Japan, telling Bloomberg that the BOJ is convinced there's no need for extra bond buying tweaks for now ahead of their policy meeting later in the week and then use it was touching on the album minutes, But we also had some pretty strong momentum coming through in first quarter House prices for Australia showing that market remains red hot. And Australia's market coming back after its holiday yesterday and holding at a record, Yousef Clearly you're providing more property. Jules. Thanks for that. For the moment. That's Julian son that's running also through the first one headlines from around the world and get out to support FAQs medulla. Simone. Hmm. Morning Youssif. President Biden says he's warned Vladimir Putin that relations between the US and Russia will be severely damaged if Alexei Navalny political opponent who was the victim of an apparent assassination attempt. Dies in prison. The comment came at a news conference following the NATO summit. Biden will meet Putin and Geneva on Wednesday for the first time as US president. Every World.