9 Episode results for "Mark Mobius"
The Tom Dupree Show with David Curry- Open Doors USA HOUR1 4/10/21 (Season 12 Episode 24)
"Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. That's a serious students off ball what it's Actually gyco for hit a triple. We would waive. Are bats an yell. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more we never got to use it because it only hit home runs annoying the phrases from geico because they help save people money. Like oh yeah. They were a team sponsor. Geico fifteen minutes could save you. Fifteen percent or more coming is a paid program on six thirty wwl. This is the free show on newsradio. Six thirty w l a v and wwl. ap dot com. well cab. I guess you all know how not been off your shades. You know what the call you were. Welcome to the time decrease show this week joining us. We've got david curry. Who's a usa president and ceo of open doors. The organization advocates on behalf of those who are persecuted for their christian. Faith right tom. You know a lot of people keep that going that they don't realize that. This song is by. Paul mccartney not rod stewart and And they don't realize how much songwriting. Paul mccartney did after the beatles and You know. I just think every now and then i might even do a show one day. It's just the music. Paul mccartney and his wife linda late wife passed away several years ago. Linda eastman so it's just something for you guys. Okay psalm seventy three. This is the english standard version. Truly god is good to israel to those who are pure in heart but as for me my feet had almost stumbled. My steps had nearly slipped for hours envious of the arrogant when i saw the prosperity of the wicked for they have no pangs until death. Their bodies are fat and sleek they are not in trouble as others are they are not stricken like the rest of mankind. Therefore pride is their necklace. Violence covers them as a garment. There is swell out through fatness. Their hearts flow with follies. They scoff and speak with malice. Loftily they threaten oppression. They set their mouths against the heavens therefore his people turn back to them and find no fault in them and they say how can god no is their knowledge in the most high below these bill. Behold these are the wicked always at ease the increase in riches all in vain. Have i kept my heart clean and washed my hands in innocence for the whole day. Long i've been stricken and rebuked every morning. If i had said i will speak thus i would have betrayed the generation of your children but when i thought how to understand this it seemed to me a wearisome task until i went into the sanctuary of god. Then i discerned there in truly you set them in slip. Replaces you make them fall to ruin. How they are destroyed in a moment swept away utterly by terrors. Like a dream when one aerobics. Oh lord when you rouse yourself you do you. Despise ms phantoms. When my soul was embittered when i was pricked in heart. I was brutish ignorant. I was like a beast toward you. Nevertheless i'm continually with me. You hold my right hand. You guide me with council and afterward you will receive me to glory. Whom have i in heaven. But you and that's not all of it but it's most of psalm. Seventy three I've gotten david curry. The president of open doors usa and How have found him to be a guy that i just really like the more i get to know him the better. I like This organization Open doors usa Does things that are. If it were in the power of a human to do it it would be considered superhuman. But it's not because they have to rely upon the spirit of god to lead them and guide them in what they do in the help that they bring to people all over the world in almost a guerrilla like fa that's spelled g. u. e. r. l. not g. o. ara. I mean in a fashion. That is you know it's not necessarily ever conventional It is In ways that are creative in Require prayer and thought and yet compassion and love. And all those kinds of things So i i just admire this. This organization truly admire them and You know david. I guess i would just ask you. How's it going. Well thanks thanks for having me on tom. Elizabeth it's always a pleasure to talk with you. I'll tell you what this is a busy time when you talk about a ministry like ours which is designed to support care for Supply christians people who have faith in jesus around the world in places where they're discriminated against because their christian where they may even be attacked and some cases killed for their faith now open doors part of our origin story and and you sort of referred to their in your opening is that we began sixty five years ago smuggling bibles one i one man and then a group of people into the former soviet union because our founder and he took on the codename brother andrus. You will be familiar with his book. God's smuggler sold millions of copies telling the story but he knew that christians in the former soviet union. The government didn't want them to have a bible. They didn't want them to meet. That didn't want people sharing their faith and so he just simply said. I'm going to stand with these people. Go into behind the iron curtain dangerous. Plays give them a bible so they can read share and so forth. Now you jump forward me. How's it going right now. From east from from palm. Sunday to easter all the way through to orthodox easter where whenever that would be celebrated is one of the most dangerous moments in the calendar every year for christian to live in these countries where they're discriminated where they can be attacked because they're worshiping in places where they either have to do so underground or in some cases they they have a church service but in it's an environment or a culture where they're susceptible to attack and so it's been a busy difficult time. We haven't suicide bombing in indonesia on on palm sunday was that where they attacks the cathedral there. S also something Right yeah on on a it was at a catholic cathedral it was indeed. Yeah in makassar. In the south of sulawesi part of of indonesia to suicide bombers went in tried to get into a church. They were stopped but they still attend thirty in the morning as people at left blew up themselves and injured at least fourteen. Some they're all still alive as of now But in in various forms of critical condition Some of them so these are the kinds of things. Tom that that are happening around this easter and it kind of gives people a sense i think of of what happens around the world in these places where either the culture the government or or individuals are opposed to the gospel. Just being rad people have in the free will to choose for themselves with their faith would be that they will attack christian they will attack the churches and make it very difficult for them around easter. Let me ask you We've been over this before. But i think it helps to keep emphasizing it. What are the. I think there are many people who listen to this. Show that are people of prayer and that are disposed to pray for the needs of others throughout the world not only themselves and their families but other people and perhaps they might hear this and and be convicted. You know to pray for some of the things that we're talking about. Where are some of the places of the greatest need Where christians are in the most dire circumstances. And you need the most help right now. Well we provide a less for people who want to know all of the top fifty and really we go down into about seventy five countries where we're working and where we have researchers and teams and so forth where persecution is extreme but in the top fifty you you look at the top of the list for the last eighteen years north korea because you have communist post-communist prashant you have a government that has four now. Three generations a desire to set up a system that where it could be worshiped where the grandfather and the father worship. Now kim jong un is running he wants to be treated the god so you you have this mix of things you have the rigidity of this communist system Where it's a no god state. But then they add on this extra where but guess what you have to worship us as leaders and it doesn't leave room for for a christian faith or any other fate that would run contrary to the needs of the individuals who run north korea. So it's very very difficult. That's why it's number one on our world watchlist just to give people an idea. Okay so what are you guys. Are you able to get his. Is this something you can't talk about. I don't want you to talk about some. You can't talk about if it would put somebody endangered but is this something that you guys are able to extend your reach into and And and help the situation. Well sometimes You know we. We will work within Some countries using established christian networks. If you ask the the state department they'll say there are no christians right now in north korea but we know. There's about a half a million christians as far as how we work within some of these countries. I think the best way to say it is that we always will partner with People within that country If we possibly can if you look at our history of the story of how we've worked in difficult places it might give people an insight into some of the covert things. We do When we started all those years ago we were just brother andrew smuggling bibles across the border and then Caring for meeting with crane with a preaching to people in the former soviet union despite the fact that that was restricted. Now you look forward in time and he then started shipping company where he was taking and refrigerators than soviet union and stacking bibles into that. So i think that giving you that picture of the past helps you understand not not as relates to one specific country but some of the things we have to do to support and get supplies. Bibles food Resources training to pastors in countries on the world watch let You know. I'm trying to wrap my arms in mind around this whole thing. You have to have people that not only know about the bible in preaching in teaching scripture and leading people to cry. You gotta have food people that know about that. You gotta have logistics people that know kind of the wrinkles of every country and and how it operates you gotta know laws of of what you can do and what you can. how does somebody contain. I mean it's it's like what you guys are is like a ups for the gospel going into places where you know. You're not wanted i. It's i mean it's you're you're kind of a logistics company in addition to being a sort of missions organization. Take one of the you you phrased it well I hadn't thought of it like ups. I think that's a good analogy. Because our core guests really from the beginning has been to distribute to support to supply. And that's part of why we help so many other ministries because we don't need to be about open doors. We need to be about jesus and making sure that we're helping his people And give people the opportunity to read about jesus and decide for themselves what they think about him this. So there's no sense that we are trying to evangelize In american is or anything like that we just want to give people access to the bible and it requires this distribution skill. And it's just a simple tom knowing that that's how we began and so our team is really developed around. That is that we we have these logistical skills and abilities. And that we also now after all these years of doing decades and decades and decades of doing it we are really the foremost leader in in in explaining. What's happening because we have this data we have the story and it's not exhaustive Even the those. The data we provide in the world watch is a baseline. There's gonna be more people killed for their faith in weaken report is going to be more churches attacked and we can report but what we do know. And what we've report is significant enough that if people were paying attention rock you to your core and governments are are are surprised. They're shocked when we give the state department. They don't have these kinds of boots on the ground and get a sense of what's happening on religious liberty in nigeria or in indonesia india. They're looking at all manner of other things. So when we provide this to our government or other governments It certainly is a wakeup call them. I think if you're talking about hopefully there'll be people of faith listening to this broadcast if you are a person of fe and you understand what's happening would call you to prayer to pray for people to have trouble. Excuse me i'm sorry To to be able to pray for people who are having issues and trouble for their faith. I think chris is significant thing. Yeah i've been in the investment business for forty two years and and i've studied developing markets. John templeton was a guy that Did a whole lot in developing markets and there was a guy named mark mobius who traveled all over these crazy countries everywhere trying to find markets in which you could invest Some of them you know had horrible restrictions on lots of things But one of the things that i think it was mark said or maybe john. Evelyn said one time is basically throughout the world. people want the same thing And he also said in most cases governments are the problem to Keeping people from having a good life being able to be productive Pursue their faith Those sorts of things. My guess is that you have found that to be true that pretty much everywhere you go. People are the same and they're looking to kinda get the same things out alive absolutely That's true culturally. There are differences The some some people can look at arts of asia and say that they will they think that maybe more in groups and Than than individualistic Countries in the west all of those narrow nuances within it. The people want to have. What i i start with this freedom of conscience. Here's how i describe it the ability to decide for yourself what you think. Now that yeah. That's great right right. Yeah but it but it's not obvious around the world. It's there are places. Where if you decide for yourself. Hey you know what. I just read this scripture and You know what. I want. Investigate the claims of jesus if first of all you can't they don't want to have access to scripture in many places around countries or it's totally banned it's illegal to read it secondly if you decide in your own mind that that you you want to. Let's say accept the premise of of the life of jesus the easter story. All of these sorts of things you you are not allowed to practice that faith and they'll do everything they can. In some cases in some countries including malaysia and elsewhere. They will put you if you come from a different background. Let's say a muslim background. They can put you into reeducation camps and tried to brainwash you back into thinking something else. So there's any number of ways in which it's freedom of conscience is not allowed where you can't decide for yourself. Yeah i want to have a different faiths or no faith at all right four. She into context many of the countries on our world watch list are extreme. Have extreme islam either in the culture or in the government in pockets. Not all of islam but It's a significant force in in in the world. Today we have to recognize that that that the reformation that needs to happen within islam itself that the different subject but You have cultures. You have governments. That are forcing. They're taking away this freedom of conscience and trying to force people into one idea you're born this way into this culture into this religion and you can never change your mind but the answer your your initial question. Everybody innately wants to make up their own. Mind about their fate of a what they liked about what they don't like they wanna be able to read the books they wanna read they wanna be able to side what they think about it and that is at its root what we're saying. Let's give people a bible him decide what they think about it. Let them have the freedom to choose their faith or if they wanna say you know what. I don't believe in it that that's their choice as well and that surprising that sound is a radical idea. It's a radical idea right now in china where they're watching monitoring punishing christian Observance in all manners of ways as well as a people who want to practice muslim. Say because they're trying to institute their communist system and and control in in nigeria norton. The country very dangerous place you have. She's given us more people. Carry the hook will pick it up when we come out. You're listening to the time to pre show with david curry of open doors. We will be back in just a few minutes. Stay tuned Exactly what is happening right. Now thank the southern border. The border standpoint. You know what's happened newsradio. Six thirty w. l. a. p. This is tom. Depre- what actually makes a difference in life is it. Bitcoin is a goal. 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Six thirty wwl. Ap looking harder smell. Welcome back to the tom. Duprey show this week joining us. David curry from open doors. He's the usa president and ceo. So tom i'm gonna toss it over to you all right. We're back with david by the way this is from paul mccartney sort of nashville a phase. When he moved with his wife to the had a farm somewhere. I don't know maybe out around bleepers fork or so david We we've seen a lot of things happen here in the us. Me me me me. But also you the payroll fast. Forwards is favourite. Foreign film powder doughnut. Okay what's my line. The only line. I see here on. A script is get options based on your budget with the name your price tool from progressive man. That's a tongue twister I'm sorry i'm getting more minutes. Oh the swirl risk the bulbous well risk the name your price tool only from progressive. The our nfl of the comatose coxswain risk casualty insurance company and affiliates price and coverage limited by state nissan believes. You deserve a car that thrills you so we have to ask. Does your car thrill you. When you hit the pedal do you get something back. A chill your spine goosebumps on your goosebumps when you take off your fingers. Tighten around the steering wheel. Does your heartbeat in your stomach and your breath catch your chest. Does driving make you feel alive because it should and if your car thrilling ours will. This is the new nissan. Very strange things politically but It seems as if You know this thing of america being the land of the free and as i was listening to what you were saying about The people in these other countries where Desire to have everybody think exactly alike in in. Do exactly the same things you know. It just seems to me that in this country we're undergoing the very very same Process where in our case It isn't islam per se. But it's this Religion of of liberalism and The humanistic viewpoint and You know these kinds of things in it dominates the press and like the other viewpoints dominate. The press in other countries I do think we have A bulwark against it. And that is that there are people of faith here who pray in in in fast and ask god that move in their lives and that's gonna be true anywhere but let's just talk about china for a minute Most people will they have studied it. Say that It's when the hudson taylor. Missionaries were kicked out of china I dunno it. In the early nineteen hundreds there might have been a half million believers there and then it began this long period of persecution of christian believers and today the numbers closer to two hundred million. This i don't. I'm relying on other experts to give me those numbers but that it seems that over this time period of persecution in great difficulty that the church actually grew You are get a front row ga on this kind of thing You've had a front row vision of of it just seems to me that if that's crew in china it might possibly be true other places and i'm just going to get your take on that question while they're really two parts to this The i was the the question about you know what. What in the world do we make of what's happening here. Compared what's going on around the world and second part is does the does the church. Can we expect them to church to grow. If it's growing elsewhere under persecution. Well let me tear off that first part This way what we see now. I think a lot of people look around the are. We being persecuted. Compared to what is on our were watchlist. The level of violence oppression discrimination. Pardon me You the usa doesn't rank because what you see is shadows of perhaps thanks to come but that sort of understates it in a sense what what i refer to is totalitarianism. If you consider them we see this on our world. Watchlist can country. It is simply where nothing exists outside of the state. So everything within north korea which is the top of our watchlist is it's a totalitarianism of the everything relate to the state. Now what. I think you see developing here and the potential idea is what i call cultural totalitarianism where nothing is not sports. Not media night late night. Talk shows not comedy. Nothing happened which is outside of this cultural idea. Which is we've all got to have the same thing. You gotta be caller into all the things we like. otherwise you're going be cancelled. You'll be shout out you'll be you'll be called out you'll be whatever that idea is a dangerous swan i think so therefore we have to look at its Various forms whether it's the can't clean of of people for for speaking out for their values for biblical values whether it's people trying to censor certain viewpoint on social media and you can see shadows of this and where where it goes will be. I think a bit of a struggle. And i think it's worth calling those things out if you have viewpoint That are that are being de platforms. You can't you can't have your ideas on youtube or you can't have your ideas on amazon web services or are on twitter instagram. That's the beginning of a problem. Yeah so i think you know that those are the things i concern myself with as it relates that the church let me give you one idea you know more of these what i call issues where you had during the pandemic all these churches being closed down while they're one or two there was a case that thinking kentucky i know there is a case in washington state and nevada Where a church decided they were going to have a drive in service. Nobody gets out of their car. They don't roll down their window but they were still banned from having the drive in service even though it didn't violate any of the principals or the framework and there's a safe that least in washington. Nevada that those cases were were all about trying to restrict expression of religious sank. They're allowing people to go. Buy marijuana allowed. People go through drive through window but they can't go for the vital social and religious connection nate so Our buddy matt staffer at Liberty counsel he's been on this show twice He took his taken numerous cases of churches. Like the ones in chicago with the ukrainian or remain ian Pentecostal church that Mayor tried to shut down but but anyway He has done some remarkable things. you know. it's interesting because there's a country. And i don't know what you guys think about this particular country elizabeth and Have thought about maybe even going there. the country of poland If you look at what they went through During the cold war and and after a war to just a tremendous amount of Persecution and communism there in economic difficulties but there was this uprising freedom in the late eighties Lack linda then. Of course pope john paul. The second being from there and today they. They seem to be a country of fairly relatively high freedom. And you know the they're doing things like Going against big tech for censoring people in and they're they're not very bashful about it. I don't know if you're if you guys even need to work in poland these days because my my bet is you don't but Do you see any other countries that may be taking these steps towards freedom and beginning to throw off the shackles of totalitarianism. In in one way or the other. That are a couple out there. I mean you mentioned poland. We don't. We don't work in poland. But i think what what i see. More often rather than countries stepping up the fight. This sort of censorship is is right now. people are acquiescing to it. Because it's a monster that you know. Maybe it'll eat need last Kind of thinking So of right now. I don't think there are enough people standing up to it not even here in our country. We have to sort through this. There's some distasteful things that happen in a when when people who are angry. Or whatever have a chance to articulate their thoughts and social media it can be very toxic place to beat. You also have You also have some bad actors who are using that as a as a way in which to censor things and they don't wanna hear or things that they may not agree with and we're going to have to sort through that i think it's it's it's a wise tact take freedom of expression freedom of conscience that people have a right to worship as they choose to talk about their fate post about their fate For people to say no. I'm not interested in that and to move on with their life. It has to be a given a take a. We have to be an example that this sort of thing too often. I think you'll see christians following the culture When really we need to be following faith when you talk about cancel culture. The idea of forgiveness is nowhere in there. The idea the scriptural tenant of let's not take offense for other people which is right there in the scripture scriptures a strong thread throughout scripture. That's not involved in so we're right now. Sort of tossed by the culture less rooted in the biblical. Thanks so i think people facing to stand up for this idea. Okay david me. I'm gonna ask you some personal questions. Tell me about your journey in in the faith and You know where you grew up How you came to get involved in this particular ministry. What was it that was happening in your life at the time that The that brought you this way. Well i think you know when i look back. I'm a good example of people. Just inviting a friend i had. I played on a soccer team with somebody who invited me to come to church. And that was the beginning of my my faith journey which has You know how to an starts in my adolescent years and so forth and really when i was in college at a strong recommitment maffei and had been moving forward in that however imperfectly then but in my in my teenage years my mother gave be a copy of god's smuggler and if people haven't read it the story of a brother andrew who started open doors it. It's an amazing story. Because it's about his personal faith journey but it's about this covert concept that the bible is a dangerous book many people out what it is and And people want to stop people from reading it and people have to count the cost to even own one in dozens of countries right. So i read that book when i was seventeen in our amazed because i was obsessed with all those cool old sean connery. James bond movies. I saw like my world was coming together. I never dreamed that would be friends with brother. Andrew certainly never dreamed. I didn't even know what open doors was But you know that was that was part of it and part of my journey to open doors. No-one the story now if you'd forward in time. My ministry of had intersection with in countries. Where where there was oppression. And i learned some of those tough lessons. One of them in particular was when i worked in peru back in the in the nineties. There was a group called the shining pat. Oh yeah heiress group. Sendero luminoso was in day Go ahead yeah they. They had an one occasion. They threatened me and so forth. So i had some interaction with. Obviously i lived to tell about it but it helps me to know now today now been and working with open doors for eight years To know that this is i. Think the subject that we all need to be thinking about. And as as people of faith or even not people say Because it's it's gonna be it's gonna be a rising rising tide of issues in the decade to so if people wanna enter you know. I think a lot of people that listen to this show kind of like to interact if if if they can I know one way they can do it in. This is something i've done and liveth within both together have done is Contribute to open doors. Usa if they're not able to do that What might be some other ways that people could Will not only interact educate themselves about what's going on. We know that prayers important and just some other ideas that you might have. Well yeah some of these. You know talk about interaction. we have an app. Pray for the persecuted and we three or four times a week would pick you know some of the things that are happening around the world where you can pray for you. Just click the button. Hey i prayed for it but then it can go a step beyond. You're hearing first of all you can hear or see some of the prayer requests from the people in some of these restricted countries And you can just have that connection but we also give you a chance in many cases to write a letter write an email respond to them and then we deliver it to them in this very dangerous in between Role at where. You can't talk to these people because they may not be able to reveal themselves and so forth we will make sure you have that personal delivery contact with these people. So that's part. I think part of the story and then on our website open doors. Usa dot org videos stories of real human beings your brothers and sisters who are affected by the but if you're excited and you want to participate in there are all kinds of project available within certain country. They certain countries if if you're Touched by by a particular place that you could participate in where you can tangibly help them. I think all of those options are good ones to start with. So because i gave a couple of organizations i get these pop ups on my computer all the time and one of them. I don't think that christian thing it's international rescue mission or something it's kind of. It's it's a yellow thing and then it'll have some it's always got something about syria and They lately have stuff about yemen. And that's a country. That that i have asked you about in the past and That is a country that you guys are actually trying to help people in their their christians there in yemen who are caught between in the midst of both the cultural thing. That's going on that country. You have strong. Islamic extremists Entities their schools universities of which been osama bin laden. Ludden attended when he was forming his ideas. Those exist within yemen. These really embattled communities there are often in some of these places where who tees and and the saudi backed yemen forces are fighting it out so you have a lot going on in that country. That's created really. I think one of the most unique and severe humanitarian issues going on right in the center of it there these embattled christian commutes then the saudis seem to be supporting The people that are trying to take down the government. It's it's like they're in their in. Their support is not for the best purposes. From what i can tell. It's really a proxy war between iran and saudi arabia. Iran wants to to to have a strong influence shia influence the south of the saudi border. Saudi arabia wants to own. It's it's neighborhood and so it's backing some of the yemen forces. The hoochies wanna There which are the. The iran related groups are battling it out and they had been considered a terrorist group by administration will lifted that designation At least the short term rot. More emboldened meant On that group to try to make them insurgencies and so there's a lot going on there to be thoughtful to be perfect. Okay david you live. And perhaps the most occupied a state in the nation california. What's lifelike there. Well it's always seventy degrees stop but outside of that there's the country where This is this is the part of the world where you know when i talk about cultural talibanism after real idea here you have. It's a media hub of the world. It's got one ideology which is pumping out and I think you know obviously christian churches here sorta struggled to find their way. My sense is that this could be a trustee now not just hearing but around the country of churches. That are that are about the real deal. They're not of social club that they're about about teaching growing up able in their christian faith and they're going to be strong in the fate. Not just a cultural thing. Not just Something that's popular today and it's going to be different. Five years to now social mores change. I think this is going to be a refining for the american church in the next decade. I don't doubt that at all. I think i think there's gonna be entire denominations That are gonna be empty. And who is going to take over those buildings and things. I it's just gonna get worse and it's going to be very very tough for people who have sorta hitched a ride on the The conventional path. So anyway elizabeth. She wants to take it now. I'm happy to take over. You know how much time do i get driving the car. All my lord. Let's not even go and get into that. We're going to thank david curry for joining us. If you like. What you heard on the tom appreciate you can always find more episodes and you can listen to this episode again. At debris financial dot com. I always try to make sure enlists the the websites mentioned during the episode. So if you miss something that you want to find you can find it on the duprey. Financial dot com blog spot. Give money to open doors. Usa it's a good investment again. David thanks for joining us in the second hour. It's our pleasure always to have you will help. You'll come again in the second hour. We've got our financial guys that'll be here in just a minute. So stay tuned. For more of the time depre- show home. Always go to the podcast. Download our podcast of your favorite shows and go enjoy the great outdoors details and downloads at wwl. Am dot com. If you're wondering what's going on in the market these days you're not. It seems the conventional metrics of discerning value and markets has been thrown out the window. Perhaps it may help to look at interest rates which are lower than ever they are lower than in my dad's. I'm in the business. And in my grandad's time interest rates can justify valuations in the stock market and lower interest rates can support higher valuation. So maybe things. Aren't that. Chris we talk about stuff like this. It debris financial group for a no obligation review of your retirement investment portfolio. Call us at eight five nine. Two three three zero four hundred or go to pre-financial dot com and be sure to listen to the tom to pre show saturdays from seven to nine. Am at newsradio. Six thirty w. l. a. p. at w. l. a. p. dot com that's depre- financial group at two three three zero four hundred me but also you the payroll passports forwards favorite born film or not. Okay what's my line. The only line. I see here on a script. His options based on your budget with the name your price tool from progressive man. That's a tongue twister I'm sorry i'm gonna need a few more minutes. Boo us wall risk. The bulbous will risk the name your price tool from progressive. The our nfl of the comatose coxswain casualty insurance company and affiliates price and coverage match limited by state law.
Just The Headers #68
"Now entering podcast Majuro ooh ooh Hello Hello everybody welcome to the Bitcoin podcast just the hat as in a his a this. This is the big one podcast network just the headers just this is show where myself in the greatest man on the planet Jesse the man broke discuss. It's crypto headlines. How's your we- Jesse. It's it's been a week. How's your week been. Oh it's been a doozy They need to stop calling Labor Day and fucking with people's heads and just call Labor Week because that extra day you really enjoy it to the point. Where are your five day work. Week is compressed into four days and you're like wait a second worst muscles to be this hard. What's the what's going on here and then you realize oh I have missing an entire day. I'd rather just work every day than have that extra day off so oh man I I like day off. I you know I didn't even know Labor Day. Weekend was happening until it happened. In there was nothing on Monday this week. telemacho drinking drinking Canada Dry Diet Ginger L. and lemonade made from real ginger and real juice. One Percent Limoges twelve fluid ounces three hundred fifty five milliliters naturally flavor ginger own lemonade with other natural flavors. I feel like they keep on saying that. All of this can Ginger Ale J. by the way this Ginger Ale. Hey Hey did you know that this is Ginger Ale of high they all of the ginger okay so so anyways it is this is your first time listen to just the headers. I apologize in advance. If this is your sixty eight time listening to just the headers boy are you in for a doozy. We deleted all of our headlines. Big Facts. was attentional. It was not intentional so I got so frustrated looking at these headlines that I was like you know what I'm done with this shit cannily delete but in the leading I deleted the column headers for our strategy so no more automations pushing articles goals too so we're basically going to scrub the Internet in real time from cryptocurrency headline so you guys and by scrub the Internet pick pick the most engaging articles from Coin Telegraphic Coin Task and that's what you get okay. That's that's that's designed you signed up for this is what you signed up for. I saw the first article of the day today is by Anna Alexandra who I think is a fake person but nevertheless to ration- yeah yeah look at all the letters in there and add vendor as a lot of owls going on fed chair says agency monitoring crypto but not developing its own. ooh Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said that the United States Federal Reserve is monitoring digital currencies carefully but not working on his own at the moment speaking at a former zere sits airland on six Powell addressed the issue of cryptocurrencies arguing that central banks would likely Kalihi would likely will not you see that right. You may be right. It's bought ours threatened by arguing that central banks would likely will not release their own digital currency in the near. This is I think coin. Telegraph is like releasing botts. What's GonNa Investigate Doo Doo Doo Doo investigating in July. Powell acknowledged the possibility of a preeminent crucial currency redrawing the occurred financial landscape yet noted that as of yet this has fell short becoming a reality at a interesting. I think Google keeps messing with my volume getting louder and softer the did change ooh. That's going to be frustrating to listener. Maybe that can stop happenings anyways moving along. We have another article and this the second article is a it's a it's a fucking doozy Jesse. Okay bitcoin. Treasure hunt is coming to calls. How's campuses this fall. This is our in bodily coon. Who's actually real person. The buzzy scavenger hunt for a million dollars worth of Bitcoin Souto. She's treasure is coming. This fall to nearly two dozen calls campuses worldwide. The game is operated by small mysterious company based on tropical island figuring out more about the game itself is part of the bill and is sponsored by primitive ventures and other prominent investors eventually there will be hundreds of cryptographic McKie's around the world shrouded in puzzles and riddles in the first team to compile four hundred of the key fragments will be able to claim the prize according to Game co-creator Eric Meltzer Sir. I know that dude over a hundred thousand people are now on the email list for updates and announcements relate to such clues forty of each have been released so far now blockchain now block Vinci her coalition partners Tyler well honor and Philip Forte are kicking off a North American campus store with twenty universities hosting educational meet ups and Mini Hans Styles students joined the game. A lot of these students want to learn about blockchain crypto but the universities haven't caught up to them yet. We're looking to provide resources for lots of these different student groups. Look at those guys right there. It looked Kinda. FRAT Takkula tacky the clues incentivize incentivize you to discover new websites and tools to play around with bitcoin wallet a bit to see what technology can do. I can't find her. She might be about Thaci's about. That's a fucking last article before I kick it over to you. Jesse trump's trade war may be driving Chinese investors just to Bitcoin. This is a stupid article. It's very speculative. I'm not even GonNa read it but essentially they're. They're trying to make the claim that these terrorists are causing people to buy bitcoin in China. Was We know is false all right you're going our as Syrians instable hard fork implementation has been delayed. The early October with the delays come on the it's. The price is right on the price is right. They'll be like Oh. It's hard for them. all right serious telling you that going what do you mean. Wild price is not right. We know shit about. I don't know Ma'am I'm saying Shit Man. I don't know what I'm saying like. Nobody knows what anything's GONNA happen this year like not even the debts no They were probably ready. They've never been ready. I don't even think the Taller Nos I think at this point of the talks. Like what the fuck did I do. I just did one one this happen. Now getting probably elated. It's probably pretty man. I wonder what is like. Steve Atallah turn out man. I WANNA get wasted with holly you. You know what I mean. Vitol Lake Lake Liquor for like normal attire normal attire. The taller dislike gets drizzle. Jason bottles is a wine with the man kicked white talk about like life just chew whether you know what I'm saying like plays xbox fuck xbox xbox playstation. Will you WANNA get wasted on wine with him playing xbox playstation. Oh playstation yeah it's like it's it's like boxed wine. Maybe I don't know maybe a black box. Maybe some actual good wine twenty five to forty five dollars bottles of wine. You know not that cheap cheap shit but the ten dollar chip that like l'amour spins shit you know have a good time with the man maybe Grillo some steaks Save Atallah man. What's on your your mind. You got all another log on all of the theory a- math and shit but you just like to kick it like let's play some call duty man you ever wonder if he actually does play video games. no that's something. I can say confidently. I've never sat onboard but I'm pretty sure like those down on some video games He looks like plays Risk Online. You you play risk Did I just saying like you know. He's got to have some chill. Like what if he liked. geeks bag got a little bottle. Koniak link shorting is going well this week mom ooh. He does not drink cognac now. What would you the jury's priced as divided. Guy Jinro illuminated. Maybe with vodka is probably about Fulda Kiki Lag. Jake is rushing Keith's back with a Russian drink that comes in the copper copper Mug or I'm not aware of the meal. The Moscow mule did not know I knew because I'm Elke but as a Moscow mule pull back lament julep will meant Amir ladle sugar around the room because he is Batali after all that after that first sip the hunting is back goes away. He's own that feels good. You know saying that's awfully. How did we get get here now? What are we supposed to be talking about a theory of theorems Evelyn right here we go so let me let me read to you a little bit of this article so a serious tests net. APP activation of Istanbul Hartford has been pushed back to early October. According to the community manager of the therion Foundation Hudson Jameson name according to coin desk on September six Jamieson said on Bella pers- called at the test net launch of the hard work is now scheduled scheduled to take place in the beginning of October. He added for anyone listening in who doesn't know how this works we pick a block number that we estimate to be around the second of October however that might be one or two days behind or forward from that date based on how fast blocks are produced between now and then so that's what they do. They pick a block any. Mo- pick a blocked by their heavier ebay. Have your stuff ready. They do it so yeah. Coin Telegraph previously reported on twenty eight that parody of blockchain infrastructure company that runs core of the theory of network had already delayed the plan hard pork until September six Bertie core developer wage as at at at the time that the organization needed at least two more weeks before deb's could perceive in selecting a block number or the assemble or Tang said at Zion what we need time till six September to finish implementation not only because we accepted e. Ip's late but right now we just happen to EUBOEA large code base re factory and we probably want to merge them first before merging is steadily. Ip Okay Yeah also the articles. I think I've finished today. Think we ended. We switched over to the new line with me ending that ethereal article good because we were going into leadership shakeup at a savvy wallet as Big Business Surges so what bitcoins most experiments experimental starters has grown dramatically over the past year highlighting both the opportunities and pitfalls of open source development now Adam visor co-founder CBS e. k. snacks the firm behind the privacy centric was obviously was opposite wallet was. Savvy Wallet is stepping down from his role as CTO focus on research search as the company matures. I was just reviewing other people's code in managing people and that's not what I'm good at. I'm good at coding in Researching Privacy as getting to the point of being serious business end we have to be more conservative right and so he stepped down so so the industry impact mixing features from both Hobby and Samurai have become increasingly popular into nineteen samurais comparable world whole the`dressing three thousand two hundred transactions transactions since April two now's the nineteen according to data from the Bitcoin blockchain. That's slightly more than two hundred two thousand eight hundred ten coin joins in the same aim timeframe was obvious feels later toll five thousand six coin join transactions since launching an August twenty eighteen a still bitcoin consultant. Ud Worthy Meyer argue that Sabi said its own privacy features across the industry the analytics firm chain analysis reportedly estimated during a eleven are alone was responsible for mixing ninety million dollars with Bitcoin so savvy wallet is the walls uses like privacy preservation kind of wall and you can make your transactions to China hide. Your privacy up at obfuscates your financial activity on the Bitcoin blockchain chain. Yep had at the pool out the GRE study. Was that one your that one ops you skate eight inch. That telegram has a blockchain project Khalilzad. Tom Isn't it yeah. I didn't know already has raised raised one point seven billion in its tokens and yeah yeah that was last year is a Biggie but ah yeah telegram something I would never trust the blockchain so down now that one couldn't be me as were we. Are we going to do something failing. We don't have heading yeah you have because we lost. All the headlines screwed rude now. We can't structure what we're GONNA do man. I don't know I clicked on another article here. ah I like this. One crypto currency not proven safe haven says investors mark mobius. You look at this picture of me. Just sees may snipping living pool cut him out but it can slag do should I in general or random is a crypto headline general general okay. Can you see eyebrows. Oh Wow I could see that he died. He's eyebrows blonde is that what is that what it looks like when you die your eyebrows bond. I guess I'd never dye my eyebrows. Blonde relate yellow the yellow right yeah. It looks it's like someone peed on his eyebrows as badly be issue. Crank it yourself checkout yeah. You should drink some water hi liners. I guess he's reached the point of elderly nece were he knows nothing matters so he just doesn't care breath dressed though he's calling the Bruce Lee under t shirt caller he's wearing those Ryu from mm streetfighter. Yeah strider two colors yeah like it all right so mark mobias. That's the GUY major investor in founding partner of mobias capital partners is bearish on cryptocurrencies in blockchain technology. I don't think with some caveats speaking on CNBC's the squawk box this morning concerning emerging markets and safe haven asset classes mobius said cryptocurrencies like Fiat are backed by a faith in only hold utility as far as others are willing to use them quote. The bottom line is there is a whole generation of people are facing the Internet. They have faith in these crypto currencies indices the degree to which cryptocurrency can enable you to buy something in you believe that to be the case then that's fine mobius said a gold back a cryptocurrency run on the blockchain would be allegations of those would be of interest however there. If there is a crypto currency that is really backed by goal in there as meaningful cold grieving and some kind of modern thing connection than this can be quite interesting. He said on blockchain investor remain skeptical Moebius send the underlying acknowledges self remains open to attacks quote. I believe blockchain is very high. Risk situation anything that's created by man can be broken into it could be a it could be going back so I only have very careful watching the statements follow stable coin issuer PAXOS announced in goal back rebuke currency earlier. Today token is on the theory botchy pass packs cold entitles ulcers to a gold bar stored on the end the preposition in London by brink's but anyway I feel like we're going backwards. Do you feel like we're going backwards going backwards. No I just I. I would like to know what this guy's portfolio is now now that he said he likes cold and he doesn't like crypto. It's it's okay with me but like what other things do you like. Allama see what your definition in terms of if you think Fiat and grip ago our faith based which you know I agree l. Let me see what you are doing to hedge that face. 'cause I'm curious. You know I wish people like which is show you their portfolio in percentages than that that would be like. Oh okay so that's why what you think because really it's all about like your opinion rate. Just your opinion ma'am. It's I'm gonNA stop saying opinion. what other. Oh Yeah. I know the other way does not gonNA say ever again. That's two words. I'm Never GonNa say you've ever again. It's from a movie man. That's remodeled irony. Even I don't care. It's the big Lebowski where he talks. Absolutely I mean I understand what you're saying. You're saying a lot of people what they say. The Shit that they spew out of their mouth is dependent upon what they own bags that they hold all sometimes but sometimes it doesn't maybe they just speeding out their ass in there. Just be me as a fucked crypto. How do you know look at his eyebrows. That's how I fucking know. Louis face as Zuni do not what you mean no. He looks like Dr Dr Robotics cousin he does. He looks like he's angry at Song Bedrock do. He looks like he's lost lost weight. He's he's angry at sonic because his cousins angry at sonic and he's a good cousin so he's just like you know what fuck you sonic. Okay zones like rail. You don't even know me and he's like one. You're coming at me way too jovial all right. I know my bra robotic does not like you so. I don't like you so as an on site when I see you. Don't get all that from his face. I I know Oh. I wish I did though you know what he looks like. Tell me he kind of looks like the real version of the the fake old guy in the Prometheus movie okay like the guy who was really eccentric doc in he wanted to live forever wanted to meet the aliens so he landed here. Guy Pearce guy appears yeah yeah so he looks like who that person would really look like ocean okay. I don't remember that guy. I mean like I know him the actor but I don't reduce. He's strictly tomato soup for lunch every day. This week looks well. Can't you see SLURP on that suit. Excuse Dame were making fun of them. Really hard was mark mobius mark mobius Jesus. I like his name his name. Mark mobias hangs out with callaway crane there. I knew a movie is in callaway. A crane team up for the biggest BITCOIN S in history was born nineteen thirty six Germans nineteen thirty six hot damn him he's been here kicking it for a while. You know what I talked to get a drink with him. Avatar at the same time. That'd be an interesting dynamic that he's okay so this is him so you'll mark mobias. How do you like your pockets blazing hot or just just get enough to eat right out of the microwave like the gold. Where are we? We need direction man. We keep we we gotta get these headlines takes because this fading of a he said ten percent gold bullion in your portfolio. I love gold the Tim. Tim Eyebrows are legit that color whole his eyebrows or gold air literally literally gold the he's Guy. They've just taken a shower in gold disgusting eighteen okay next article. Let's go to some some some scam news or ask him news. The flavors am Ravers. your Hemi fifteen arrested in China for allegedly bribing Internet cafe to mind crypto. Listen listen listenership. Chinese authorities arrested fifteen men ten suspected corrupting an Internet Cafe Administrator Mind crypto local crypto industry news outlet eight. BTC reported on timber third that police Hengyang a city in south central Chinese province Hunan Province arrested the man for crypto jacket back over nine thousand and Peter Administrators reportedly involved in helping the unauthorized mining operation a profitable whatever the cryptocurrency mind suspects in the four months ending July has been sold for over a hundred meal Ian Yawn about fourteen thirteen million bucks. Local police received a report suggesting that many local Internet cafes were running crypto Jacking Mala wear the findings. Ya Ah so you log into the Crypto cafe and our oil you log into the neighbor Cat Fan Jack. You're crypto. Es US perfect perfect degrade busy. It's brilliant model the best the findings they get gone home. Maybe I can keep this up. The findings of the preliminary investigation and now I can't do it. I don't even want to suggest that the valley where has been developed by a network technology company in Zang's ow and the company's head is surname named Song Tzong suspected personally bribing the Internet cafe administrators. Let him install the malware on their computers. All the fifteen men allegedly involved doc are now under arrest ooh. That's what you fucking. Get us. Damned thieves use bitch. This is your term Bro. I got to interesting articles. K Brillo bitcoin treasure hunt is coming to college campuses. This red temple show all right new head of China's teachers. They need direction so the Chinese Central Bank has a new digital digital Kurds chief who says its upcoming digital. You want has has features not offered by facebook. Libra Okay Chang Chung Ching Chung Mu. That is really ridiculous. Yes ma'am Okay tints over there previously deputy director of the payments and Settlements Division at the People's Bank China use the what he's the deputy director of the payments and settlement division at People's Bulls Bank of China. It's a mouthful is it is not the sheriff though definitely not share while why God everything no. Stop Stop Stop it all right arguing recently stepped into the lead role at the digital currency research institute Shanghai Securities News according to the state run news. Everything about China seems like state run. I want to go to China China. Ohno on speak whatever they they're speaking depending on the region that I'm in and just ask people what's going on. Like how so through like are you guys actually state run like everything. I would love to see that if if you had a video camera on your walking around with microphone like hey what's going on any state run or you stay ron latest around like our state I wonder how many days until you were black. Bagged in prison visit would be like less than a week twenty four hours. They'd be trying to down vote you to give you social currency or whatever that little program that they have over there and they can't find you in the the database come black bag. You throw you in a whole state run that cheese that she's right there. Did you have to buy that from the state a listen to me motherfucker. Don't you scuttle away cow in a row area. Are you state run. He's asking the cow. Disease is all of the of the couches uh-huh. You are state run the that's a state ruin cow right there anyway anyway all right so that's a it's China in China. They don't have another. They say they have like year of the Dragon near the Horse and all that bullshit released you're of the state and we ourselves up we do his new article. Massive one billion dollar bitcoin transaction makes waves a massive ninety any four point five while ninth out in read numbers ninety four thousand five hundred five bitcoin transaction mead crypto headlines investors investigators gators speculated from whence the BTC gave the wall at first access late on September fifth. Two Thousand Nineteen has been involved in only seven transactions including the massive wilmut other lose include six thousand six hundred twenty four deposit early in on September six and a deposit of six dollars and sixty six cents execute hours later what blockchain analysis firm token analysts noticed that many of the transactions came from who'll be wallets our team is looking into the validity claim set a will be spokesperson not surprisingly move change bigwigs price from ten thousand five sixty nine to ten thousand seven hundred ninety and follows a similarly mysterious seven hundred eighty million dollar. ATC move and took place last week others suggested the move was a deposit into the new backed warehouse product or liquidated funds from the plateau in bonds ski token analysts created in graphic that shows movement of the movie scenes the new wallet. I like the graphic post that yeah that graphics back his a good article here so we don't explored enough the price bitcoin price four key similarities to previous bull market corrections while back clients will be able to deposit their phones into the back where else next week on September six bitcoin prices trending downwards after falling below ten endows in the run up to the event so this is already priced in or the market cycles repeating themselves the cycle gives them the key similarities to previous bull markets in the chart labels and lines a common discussion lately on crew twitter suggests that there's a confluence between the so called Bitcoin price bubble top twenty only seventeen on top of the end of July at Thirteen Ninety five innocence parabolic movements tend to repeat the same stages over and over again however there are some substantial differences between them so the top twenty seventeen came at the end of a market cycle which essentially started with the confirmation of the launch week moving average and twenty one week exponential moving average during January twenty sixteen however the top July nineteen was essentially the first pick up above the one hundred week moving average and did not face the four year comparable the period in December twenty seventeen so are they comparable basically during the whole bull market twenty sixteen to says and there are several several bear bog movements ending inner retracement so basically they're saying like all the movement of this year here is not really similar to the the movement of the last bull market and here's another article lissome. Here's some some ripple news PNC Bank is using ripple ex current is interesting blockchain rising. Wow that stable coins up was. What's what's the metric of our cryptocurrency? Your is cryptocurrency interest writing. I think the metric is price. okay hey stable coins have goal have have a goal putting an end to the recent volatility the crypto market and in doing so they've opened the door to crucial uses for institutional investors which has long been considered an important milestone. Alston on the grow to mainstream adoption Jesse one of the ways that institutional investors are looking to implement crypto solution is in cross border payments and remittances. My my man sending money overseas holy. Shit the ripple net blockchain is one such product was as the reinvent how these payments are made man recently going demographic reported that PNC motherfucking PNC the eighth largest bank has become the first I country to use cross-border paves solution ex current. Bro The first earlier Quint Coin Telegraph reported that Spanish baking giant Santander or Sunday was also looked a use of the Susan for Rupel so this is fucking bananas Jesse. This is so bananas ripple out here in the streets doing the damn thing 'cause it's centralized schick on centralized shit are the few more articles seamless rap. We WanNA do out there. Give it a shot jerky messaging line messaging being in giant line when Japan lists Crypto Exchange Business Blue Line provider of Japan's most popular messaging APP has just been approved for recuperating not business license century. The News reported by coined S. Japan on Friday means that will be able to offer. It's not and services in Japan where it has eighty million monthly active users Caesar's. The new platform is to be called bit box. According to accompany license was warned by Japan's Financial Services Agency which indicated on its website that the registration was completed on September six in the name of L. VC court which oversees wines digital acid in watching business units I seen before and I used the APP APP. It's it's really really popular to him. Such pretty dope for them. It's just imagine if messenger or what's abused on yes oaths oops. Let's that's awesome it for them. I this marsh islands is issuing currency. Why who is doing what do the Marshall Islands Oh yeah and so they're gonNA issue sovereign currency digital or here's another article by on Alexander the Fake Person Okay Fred Wilson a financial co-founder venture capital firm Union Square ventures as revises bullsh- opinion on either bagging twenty seventeen Wilson has suggested that the market position to be through a bypass the market cap of Bitcoin INVINCIB- could be worth more per coin. However in a blog post will sitting ause eath has fallen short of this and that the underlying theory net restraints you problems theory uh-huh as many of you know confounds me it has shown the way to so many important things smart contracts? Rogo programmable trusts free computing particularly proof steak AAC and a lot more but it remains hard to build on scaling issues abound and me developers are looking elsewhere last month of Therion co-founder vitale himself slammed down. Moscow mule admitted that Therion blockchain is almost full UNICEF said at the time. If you're a bigger organization the Calculus is that if we join it will not only be more full but we'll be competing with everyone for transaction space as always read that article Braziers read that article article you read the I read that quote in another article or maybe even that article the tree capital's. The you read that title sounds different but the quote is the exact same to literally are lots running crypto news now men so station. You did read that quote so it's like what the fuck we need to go back to go back in time back in times like on September fourth. Let's go way back. WHO's this Guy CERIUM CO founder. Anthony Delauro in other guy stepped out the central. CEO Canadian started buying Jack's Crypto aww struggling to find reliable revenue model Anna said interesting here gnarly yeah go with that okay billionaire industry veteran the need alario founder of the Jacks Wallet Maker Central Retired this week to focus on quote philanthropic initiatives he told point desk if you're impo founder will continue funding central and approving budgets chairman of board meanwhile former product manager Maggie Shu you the lawyers girlfriend of two years will take the helm this company's new. CEO She develops a roadmap presents to meet what we funded depending on which resources she needs stories said quote. I'm happy to agree to continue funding decentral. If it makes sense stepping back into a eighteen Lori said crypto wallet had up two million monthly users in head process more than two billion dollars worth of purpose ops through partnership shapeshifts narrowest last year the company underwent an ambitious campaign to attract aid integrations with service providers such as loan startups and exchanges in futuristic office plans with a Hologram studio but then the bear market hit hard transaction his action fees shapeshifts integration were central primary revenue flow. Lauria said eating at three hundred thousand dollars a month when shapeshifts started requiring no your customer information last all revenue dwindled to a pittance to central laid off almost half of its staff. He said down to fourteen boys it has today. The central is hiring again. These days of development positions is it runs nearly a dozen notes to ease integrations data flows across the assets supported mobile app the chew told Coin Dusty Finally Security Grisham partnerships looting gift a jelly which should allow users to convert inside the APP and spend them with with theon dominated gift cards by twenty but we need to add functions functions people care about who should be by itself crypto converted to Fiat and send it. It won't meeting other people community. Xu said we're looking to bring back. Central meet UPS as a former lawyer radically juice at her combination of expertise. He's late the growing a growing marketing business more seamless over the next six months. You plants prioritize gration seek funding through strategic partnerships. She added a new version of the mobile wallet. Checks Liberty garnered two hundred fifty thousand downloads over the past year chupin include quotas about trying to move this whole movement the needs dream. You know all the topic of you know making shit work. It's very hard to make. It should work what you mean by that now. I'm just saying you others the the Gumy's like we've been working on that shit for so long wrong and even the latest batch i. Let's let a bunch of people try. It and I can't tell Thurs pandering and they're saying like he's he's good because when I tried it I was like man. This is still like really affecting sour and like long and like as far as like the effectiveness the product like it's either to effective or it's not effective enough and I I. I don't know we're having problems like hitting the right amount of ingredients. It seems like to make it taste good to make it work. Take time out. Let Smart Guy say you gotTa Fell Thousand Times before you succeed once some shit like that Benjamin Franklin those new like I didn't ended ended the liable but in thousands of ways to fail `ISMs and I don't know you know the code. Everyone knows the quote that was that was Edison but yeah Addison aw I guess it's it's late. Man Cowley had just fused Benjamin Franklin Okay Yeah Yeah we should. We should drafting some are. Let's keep going power through but man. This is what I'll say to the booze blocks. Are you're documenting everything right. What do you mean document. Everything like your percentages of things that you use in batches at this point like we failed so many times like I was keeping track of the losses like of of the dollar amount of losses of the batch going bed like like it's just not something that I want to sell and Bert. We're getting up there the budget okay or reading some losses okay. It's okay though you're learning right. I mean I yeah yeah morning. What what I don't want to sell learning that. I don't want to sell the currency like the mantras like fucking put together in ship it right now selling idea before you even have the product like I don't I don't I don't like that like I like having a good product and then just selling it like it's it's hard to. It's hard to make a good product. You're not wrong before you know like it's hard to have the market or have the product already ready to go to market. It's it's really really difficult. It's it's really easy to sell like shit to people to sell it something good to people yeah. You heard it here first. If you want to sell some shit it should be easy. I mean are wrongly. It is tough but how do we even get on this tangent. What were we talking about talking about. Some Shit coin okay We're losing steam on the show. We've both had a very long week. Reporting will later than usual everyone. We started recording very late in the evening yeah. I I fell asleep but he was kind enough to not worry about it. Yeah Jesse's doing all premed thing and were were really we're we're. We're getting a little time time constraints these weeks will we're making it work. We're going to wrap this episode. fix our headline machines net high pro- and come back next week strong for you guys. We went on a bunch of tangents. We apologize especially to mark mobius in callaway crane in high noon boys so don't buy Jesse's boost blocks because he can't he can't find the right recipe in starting starting to visit him off and do go to the big win by Gas Dot Com and join the slack and listen out for all the other so so that come through the network many many great episodes the best episodes the greatest most downloaded did episodes ever. I'd say there aren't any other podcasts that are are as good as ours in this. I can tell you this. I know that's all got so the I think Jesse no arguet's play ooh ooh ooh
Why western brands are closing shops in China; will Pompeo UK visit be hampered by Huawei deal; saving a London pop icon
"Thank you for listening to the leader. We bring you the evening. Standard's News Analysis and commentary every day at four PM. You can subscribe through your podcast provider and please. He's do share the show with your friends now from the Evening Standard in London. This is the leader Hi I'm David Moslem locking down doors and shutting up shop all POW fear has following the Karuna virus spread in China Toyota. Shut down several of its plants though since starbucks close to thousands of its four thousand shops over there. McDonald's and Cassie also closing stores the Evening Standard's Alex Lawson speaks to the leader as the UK prepares to fly its citizens out of Wuhan and straight into quarantine. Also when Boris Johnson became prime minister. I guess we all saw that the special relationship between Britain and the US will be improved through his friendship with Donald Trump. But it hasn't necessarily worked out that way you ask US Bond and David Gardner on tension between the White House and Downing Street with Mattis Secretary of state might compel in London ended and pistols the clash booze cokes. John's drunk all played. It just has a reputation for being a great place to see music protecting grassroots. The Streets Music Arts correspondent Rob Idex Hale special status being given to the iconic one hundred club in London. Doc taken from the Evening Standard's editorial column. This is the leader for the whole thing. Pick up the newspaper ahead to standard DOCO. UK slash comment in a moment the devastating eating effect of a deadly virus inside allocates. Go up in a city being locked down with the streets empty. It's being compared to a ghost town but the eleven million people who who lived there are refusing to be cared by Luna virus. Aw Come on Wuhan. They shouted from the windows of the homes. Many are all but confined to the defiance is a powerful message to the world. An editorial column says as we must all here it what should the response be alarm is natural oh panic can be avoided if the world works together already. There are good signs. The World Health Organization is he's taking the lead work has begun in several places on a vaccine. It has a very good chance of being effective although even if it is ready for testing by this summer it would not be set for widespread use until next winter through cooperation and openness the corona virus can be managed but as is often happens with flew. The bad news is that things will get worse before they get better while the UK governments to begin flying home citizens from Wuhan but we kept isolated for two weeks. Possibly in a military barracks. But if you're a civilian in the rest of mainland China might struggle to get out as cancelled all flights flights into and out of the country and then all the only company shutting down operations. They are business news editor Alex Lawson with me and Alex. What's happening in China? Yes I think what we've seen is in the early days of the virus outbreak. The the obvious come easy to expect to be affected. The hoteliers travel companies the retailers including burberry which one of the biggest British bronze Have seen the factor now. We're seeing that sort of tax wave companies react to this outbreak so today we've seen Toyota took down several of its plants though seen starbucks close to thousands of its four thousand shops over there McDonalds. KFC also closing stores. We've also seen British Airways suspend direct flights to mainland China until March a so really seeing the corporates Looking at this issue. You the main things that doing beyond that are ensuring that their staffers safe so timing them to work from home giving them hygiene advice Making sure this thing doesn't spread any further this must be hitting the market is On the first few days the appraisal significant falls of C.. was was down almost two percent on Monday which is unusual that has been tempered slightly from the music from the W. H. O.. which just at? The outbreak isn't as bad as first I feared but it just in today's paper. We've got veteran investor mark mobius saying that. GDP he in China could be hit by several basis. Points He's a veteran of that market. He saw so the Sol's outbreak he was working Hong Kong time So we're voice to be listened to them and as you suggested China itself. Alf is going to be hit by this yes I think so. I've got to take the bigger picture. which is there in the middle of a significant trade war with the US? Obviously we've had the signs that Washington and Beijing are willing to work together. We've had some agreements there but long term it doesn't look like a great position to be in For China we've already seen. Economic growth is slowing at around six percent which is still a knockout number of course But not the gains that. It was Same before that say. This won't help that situation. So what does that mean for businesses over here. Well of course in London. We have see huge numbers of Chinese tourists. Chris coming every year and they're big spenders. In fact during the Chinese New Year period the west end is full of shoppers after really high end items What we're likely to see is a slowdown in not number? If this persists particularly companies are looking at all the again. The hotels retailers Poke companies their estimate. Spend around seven hundred million pounds in the K.. In industry last year. And you can read more from Alex in the newspaper we also have up to the minute. KIRUNA virus updates on our live blog at Standard Okuda UK and for the latest video coverage visit the evening standard on Youtube next. I think it is absolutely vital. That people in this country do have access to the best technology available. The we also do absolutely nothing to imperil our relationship with the United States. Boris Johnson says ways involvement with five G. in the UK won't affect the relationship with the US Secretary of state. Mike pompeo agree the. US Secretary of State. Mike POMPEO's in London for meetings with the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary that's a day after the UK rejected American concerns over while ways involvement in five G. here and it's not the only cause of tension between the two countries right now the. US correspondent David Gardeners in La. David there's a bit of a strain on relations between Downing Street in the White House. Right now is in the. When Boris Johnson became prime minister? I guess we all thought that the special relationship between Britain and the US that have been somewhat fragile. In recent years we'll be improved through his friendship with Donald trump but it hasn't necessarily worked worked out that way I it was the answer. kudos affair the diplomat's wife who was involved in an accident with a teenage motorcyclist and then hotfooted back to America. She's still there refusing to come back. Conversely of course there's the Prince Andrew and Jeffrey Epstein situation the FBI one and to go over to the United States or at least acquiesce to an interview. So far he's refused to do that. It reminds me somewhat of the whole situation in in love. Actually the movie where Hugh Grant Prime Minister stands up against the American president. In this case. Of course there's no David Beckham's left foot. Maybe Harry Canes Hamstring. But it's a situation pats where Mr Johnson wants to show he's not Donald Trump's puppet Britain has its own mind he just won't be cast in the same kind of lights as Tony Blair was George Bush David yesterday. Three Republican senators wrote to the prime minister. Warning that any post brexit deal could be threatened threatened if while way was allowed to be part of the UK's five G. Network and yet it will be so. Is that likely to have any impact. There's certainly a very real possibility that the Americans will refuse to share intelligence with Britain. Britain's one of the the so-called five is nations where they share given take intelligence information that may be of any mutual benefit with America's suspicions about spyware involved in the Chinese technology. That may very welcome will problem. I I think he's unlikely that the trade deal be threatened then maybe some saber rattling by Mr Trump but he has an investment in Britain just as much as we have in dealing with him at the end of the day probably not enough to really fracture the special relationship relationship but it will test it some more now. London's One hundred club is a place where you can take a risk. Lay down a few pounds for a ticket. And you just might get treated to the next Louis Armstrong David Bowie Johnny Rotten. Every one of them has played. Its cavernous red basement and now it's been given protected status which will help it stay alive at a time when live music. Venues are struggling to survive the evening. Standard's arts correspondent. Robert DAX is covering the story and Robert. Why does the one hundred club deserve this? It's been a huge part of music scene. Since nineteen forty two which sort of speaks for itself it started out as a judge bar the social history the first crowder American. Gi's wanted to hit song music. They heard at home she meant American jazz else. Came over which meant British musicians breach funds. Her that music turned it around to something different with it. And then you had the halls of Jesse exploded after the war from that I mean after that as well as if that wasn't enough in seventies it was one of the places see punk bands when they started out the pistols the clash the buzzcocks. John's Douglas is that all played the. It just has a reputation for being a great place to see music. I mean it's hard to believe. The stone seemed to never stop tour in those a while all in the eighties. They didn't play. They didn't play for about seven years. Apart from one GIG and that one GIG was the hundred cloaks rob this clubs being given special status status. Is this a sign that the city is finally protecting grassroots venues. The Westminster deal is Western's consequences come with conditions and and I think the sticking point is the organizations that qualify for this rate relief must be not for profit now. Local government is starved of money. And they'd they don't don't give away cash easily but I think at some point they're gonNA have to look at maybe some kind of relief. Maybe no hundred percent on a sliding scale to places that are for profit venues because things really are difficult and they will lose these. These venues If don't a bit more to help but in a social media wild where youtube make stars new OUGHTA still need stages to perform in front of audiences I would say youtube automate certain kind of star and perhaps places like to make a different type of star People who are props more interested in the craft of live music and say well they can do in the studio we will always need stages I mean i. It's not even actually just about live music. I mean the hundred Is famous for being on the first places of Northern Soul in London and now those northern soul records you can hear on the radio you can go on Youtube but the people who live music won't be with other people who live at music. Listen to it at the same time is is simple so yeah we definitely need with eight venues other hunter equipment. We need to be done to help them. And that's the leader subscribe through your podcast provider and get in touch with us on social media with the Hashtag the leader podcast. We published every day at four PM A._M.. So let us know what you'd like to hear. We'll be back tomorrow.
Fast Money 04/22/20
"The IBM cloud is the cloud. That's open that secure. That's built for business. It's also the cloud that's leading the way but don't take our word for it. Chuck Gardner Peer Insights to see why customers rate IBM cloud of AWS. Google cloud and Microsoft Azure over the last twelve months as of February twenty eighth twenty twenty. Ibm Let's put smart to work. Gartner peer insights reviews constitute the subjective opinions of individual end users based on their own experiences. And do not represent the views of Gartner or its affiliates and welcome fast money. I'm Melissa Leo Traders for the Hour Tim Seymour Guy. Dummies Steve Grasso and Brian. Kelly coming up on fast accrued combat feels a big rally on Wall Street legendary investor mark. Mobius says don't believe today's bounce. He joins US straight ahead. Plus a retail reckoning NASC- shares tombo as a company looks to raise cash. We'll find out if any of our traders are shopping around in the same and later some healthy returns. We'll tell you what ten shares of Jan J to new all-time highs today but we begin with a double dose of earnings. Csx supports a read on the economy. Las Vegas Sands or read on consumer facing businesses. Both are on the move in the after our session. We've got full team coverage standing by to break down both of these reports. Let's kick things off with. Csx touching after hours highs with the call now underway. Let's get the Frank Hall and with the details Frank with Melissa shares of CSX more than a percent and a half after reporting revenues in line and six beat on EPS but the biggest headline the east coast rail pulling full year. Eps guidance. Something we've seen from another of a number of other companies and one of its competitor's Union Pacific on that Call Co. Jim Foot says production demand was simply too hard to forecast and this cove in nineteen environment also during the call. Cfo Kevin Boone said. The company recently raised five hundred million in dead end. Despite polling guidance the company believes it is in position for a potential recovery and is maintaining a strong cash. Reserve liquidity position is extremely strong with nearly two point. Five billion of tests and short term investment represents multiple what we would consider normal targeted cash level or cash may be strong but volumes. Were Week over week or year. Start Cue to the Kobe. Nine hundred impact on. Csx is already being seen in the three weeks since the first quarter ended with double digit declines each week now on the other side CEO Jim Foot. He's really praised. The rotors for their ability to work. During these conditions and keep critical goods flowing on the rail. The company also said a new efficiency metric for the first quarter. But I think right now Melissa. It's all eyes on cue to back over to you all right frank. Thank you Frank Holland. Guy. I'll start off with you. How long have we been doing this show on time? Thirteen years actually take longer than we ever started a show with. Csx earnings zero. I don't remember what happened yesterday. We'll why they're so interesting. This time around is what they're going to be saying about the economy. And how how they weathered this past quarter and what they have in common with other railroads going into this particularly You know tough environment is that they've already cut costs. They've cut labor. They've gone down on fuel costs. They've they've gotten lean ahead of the pandemic and they've actually the railroad. Csx WHAT SPECIFICALLY. But they're running these railroad so more efficiently than they were even three or four years ago. I mean Steve Grassi. Could probably speak to this. But a lot of ways. These railroads have become technology. Plays BELIEVE IT. Or Not so the efficiencies. You're seeing all on the back of the technology that they've spent a lot of money. Implementing in terms of the stock understanding. That all these companies are gonNA pull guidance out of the major railroad uncertain terms of multiple. Probably the cheapest. I think it's still has room to the upside. But if you WANNA play stock market here if it were to get the sixty four. That's the sort of fifty percent retracement of the recent high and obviously that trough low. We saw a few weeks ago so although I think it was a really wonderful quarter despite what's going on understanding that the pulling guidance I think if it gets a sixty four you pull the rip cord and live to fight another day. Operating margins were the best on record for the company. Expenses were down seven percent year on year. Steve Grosso if you're to believe that some sort of recovery around the corner is this the first place you want to be one of the first places you want to beat a place you want to be at all the these these places this segment of the economy? They actually lied to your point. So they're going to lead the first on the way down so as you said in the introductory they already cut. They've already established where this economy was going. So you're GONNA see your first signs of life in this segment of the economy in the transportation segment. I would go if I was forced to choose but I'd rather be in. Ups UPS is great at shipping bulk. Fedex is not so great. They ship parcells better. But if you're GONNA see a real leading indicator you could see it with the rails but if you wanna make some money early. Ups probably your best transport to buy. I like Rossa pulling out the south would you rather five minutes into the show that's throng? Pk where do you go here? Yeah so this is interesting. Not just because it's going to be a leading indicator going to get a read on. What inventories are like? And how when inventories normalized right. We know we had this. Huge serve surge as people started to hoard goods into it. But now inventories normalize it so you watch. Csx YOU WATCH CSX for a couple of different regions. They have intermodal which means you're going to kind of get a read on what's going on with the trucking sector as well as well as the shipping sector plus they have that export coal sector which is really important to get a read on what the global economy is doing so no surprise. They pulled guidance. I think every seat yoga world should do that. But I think this is the place you watch you. See leading the market. That's GonNa make you more Gulch. Intermodal was week. No surprise automotive was week. No surprise Tim. So so how are you feeling about? And if this is any sort of read through it but we're seeing the broader economy. Well do echo the sentiments the most important things for me. Investing in shipping companies right now are finding the best balance sheets and the best cost efficiencies which we talked about with. Csx puts you in a pretty good spot in terms of the relative performance to the market You could make an argument that actually a couple of these shippers have really underperformed this. Snap back in the market remember. Csx was in eighty dollars. Stock going into this traded all the way down around forty seven dollars snapping back valuation on a trailing basis. Looks pretty attractive. Question is what are they gonNA do going forward? I do think for investors that are looking for those stocks that they say out one to two years I'm a medium to long term investor the best of breed rails are certainly making sense and I think. Csx is one of those names open ended question guy air transport right here right now. Open ended question favourite. Well as you know Melissa I actually spend a day working at ups. So I would echo some of Steve Gross sentiment. But I don't know I mean I'm not looking. I don't think the shippers are really where you WANNA be. They've all had pretty significant. Runs off these lows. We made and I still think the market probably stops here at the twenty eight hundred level. So if you're forcing me to choose which you did ups. But I say that she did with serious Ashley Open ended question. I didn't force IT TO DO ANYTHING. But if you want to choose you choose. And that's what I'm going to move on. Now we've gotta hit gaming giant Las Vegas Sands I hitting after our session highs with the call now underway. Let's get to Contessa brewer with all the details. Contessa Melissa good to see you. And Gaming of course. Investors pay very close attention to the property even that's the earnings before interest and taxes and etc in. Macau which was the first of the properties to close and has already reopened that even number down ninety two percent from last year and also they're burning three hundred and five million dollars in operating expenses monthly chairman and CEO Sheldon Allison says the impact of the pandemic is unprecedented. That he's never seen anything like it in his more than seventy years in business and yet he remains optimistic. Things will turn around and soon I show you. I've not said you ain't eminence. Guy Backs put a less time looking forward to save them again hopefully soon. He says in fact as soon as things turn around he's going to get back with the board and they're going to revisit the whole issue of dividends. Here's some more good news. Las Vegas Sands has a strong balance sheet. Two point six billion in cash access to almost four billion in credit. So it's paying its employees globally. It's continuing with its capital expenditures in Macau and Singapore and they're intimidating A. I'm quoting here much better place in China this summer. They say far better than the. Us They're looking at a phase reopening in China perhaps one done which is a big feeder into Macau and that may be why you're seeing the stock now up an extended trading Such a big jump as the call continues here. Melissa OURIKA TESLA. Thank you contessa brewer with the latest on. Lvs which is up six point seven percent after our state. Grosso is this best in breed compared to a win compared to an MGM. So this has always been my favorite vegas. I shouldn't say Vegas stock. It's a it's just a gambling sector stock and it's more waited to Macau but what this has that the others do not have is what Contessa just said. The Singapore Revenue Stream. The others. Don't get that and by the way Las Vegas by market cap is multiples higher than MGM and win so that would make best in breed. I would guess if you're playing along at the home game for money. It's always been my favorite but if you look at the charts the charts say that. Mgm and win or a better by but Vegas seems to be the special one in the sector. I'd still be a buyer of. Lvs You gotta wonder though with a Singapore exposure while a good thing right at this moment in time. Maybe a bad thing since they're seeing the number of Cova cases rise as we speak. Here you gotta give props to Nomura here. Because last week they actually upgraded. Lvs Tim ahead of the quarter to a buy rating saying that they expect Macau Trans to be begin normalizing at the beginning of June which is basically right around the corner. Here I mean can we make that extrapolation then for some of the other names that are more exposed to China? Look I think the Macau trends are are obviously remember. We started getting US Macao data in November into December. But before that we're actually seeing gross gaming revenue begin to to reaccelerate into the holiday season. I Look I think Vegas also yes you can put it into the guys that have even more exposure but the one whose chopped its dividend and the one who seemingly has made prudent steps to actually managed. Free CAFO inbound. She I think is the one you feel more comfortable about in an environment like this but When when Kovic nineteen broke out I remember saying this Mel and you're probably at home with two very cute ones. I was saying I think we've got a dynamic where we don't have a consumer credit problem. We have a short term disruption. I've certainly had to make an adjustment. In that view. I think a lot of people have but ultimately the case here for a recovery. What we've already seen in other parts of the economy look at Taiwan. Sammy look at other parts of Asia for those economies. That didn't fully shut down. And you have to be encouraged at some of these early signs even though we know this is not going to be a straight line back higher. Yeah I ask myself the question very often guys. What is the first thing I'm GonNa go out and do things quote unquote open up hopping on a plane to Las Vegas out? Be Among the top or the top ten or the maybe it was never in the top five. Certainly not in the top twenty anymore. I mean listen soul to Ali you I. Singapore has shut down again because they because they've got more cases. You look at what happened in Beijing last week. They opened up their gyms. All of a sudden man explosion of cases and they had closed down again. So I think this is going to be. What's happening in this economy? It's GonNa be fits and starts and the absolute last thing that I wanna buy in this market while actually the last thing I want to buy cruise ships. The second. The last thing I want to buy is casinos last words. Well hopefully. Hopefully you've used this time to watch the Godfather. Maybe you learned something about casino business. Mums but what I will say is. I'll take the other side of bk and say I think Wynn resorts could probably still go. Higher said it last week and I think it could sort of continue to levitated into earnings. At the end of the month I think city just upgraded. The stock lowered their price. Target one seven. I don't think it's going there but I think this is the stock that can easily trade eighty five earning so I think win will get you done and I would use again the time you have at home to embrace both godfather one into yeah. I I have nothing else to do at home. Nothing else coming up sounding the alarm legendary investor mark. Mobius is with US why he says there may be more pain ahead for investors and later the race against time for retail. We'll tell you what's on shares of macy's tumbling today fast money back into the. Ibm Cloud is the cloud. That's open secure. That's built for business. It's also the cloud that's leading the way but don't take our word for it. Garner peer insights to see why customers rate. Ibm cloud above aws. Google cloud Microsoft Azure over the last twelve months as of February twenty. Eighth Twenty twenty IBM. Let's put smart to Work Gardner. Peer insights reviews constitute the subjective opinions of individual end users based on their own experiences and do not represent the views of Gartner or its affiliates. Welcome back to pass. Money crude clawing back today rallying about twenty percent but the energy market is so down big this year as a. Krahn virus spread stalls global demand. So can be ahead for this a commodity. Tim Are you. Are you in oil at all right now? Do you dare dip your toe in there I I I own a couple of the integrates. Chevron ione slumber J. I'm of the view that the kind of price action we saw this week is the kind that makes a bottom. I I recognize all the obvious supplies all the storage issues. The demand cuts that are going to be difficult and more difficult to work off from the supply going into the second and third quarter is something we will see. Aggregate oil demand is going higher by the end of the year. And I think this is a great long-term opportunity with the best of breed. But I want to be specific. The price action you saw this week. Convinces you bottom the equities or in the commodity? I think in the commodity and I think in the equities I'M NOT GONNA. It's very difficult to make proclamations about. Have we seen the bottom on almost anything in this environment? But I can tell you the energy. Equities traded fantastic this week. And if you look at the performance of the early you can make an argument Even off the bottom of equities on March Thirteenth. That it's outperform. But but we've we've gotten a little bit more insight we've gotten inside into those integrated names like bp who might have to cut the dividend and others who. I don't think we've had that discussion all week. So I won't Belabor that one slumber J. Baker Hughes this morning you got a sense of where free cash flow as you got a sense of where CAP EX AND OP EX efficiencies are and I think for long term investors There's there's an opportunity here and I think you don't have to dive in but again. Those are stocks that I've been nibbling. Pk You look like. You're you're being thoughtful about what Tim is saying. So what are you thinking? What's in that? Noggin of yours. Well I mean I think what you saw this week in oil or at least today in particular is from the president the strategy to get crisis. Higher in the commodity. I YOU START TO BLAME IRAN. You start to provoke nat. People get concerned that there might be a war in the Middle East and your shortsellers disappear. So that's step number what. Let's hope it doesn't escalate and we don't get some kind of miscalculation going on but I think that's the strategy so it's a tennis point you know. I think you're starting to see the signs that a bottom companies here that being said we know that in Texas in West Texas particular because cushing the WTI cushing Oklahoma that is landlocked. You can't get that oil out of the way so you may see some at June expiration some fireworks again but in general if I look at the world price which is the Brent crude price. I think you're looking at partially a bottoming type of action. Well then guy does that that. Tell me that Tim may be right. In terms of finding some sort of floor in those energy equities you have to be encouraged by the fact that you know June crude got walloped. Yesterday the broader Mark Market. Got walloped yesterday. And it's Tim pointed out yesterday. The the energy stocks did reasonably well not very well to be case point. One hundred percent agree that president. Trump's tweet was absolutely aimed at the commodity market more so than our foes and I think for day at least that was successful so I think you have to take some encouragement of the fact that you know crew got smacked yesterday market got smacked yesterday but these energies equities did pretty well so maybe yesterday's good level in terms of a lot of these stocks to trade against a stop so yes seagrass in the oil patch where you got to be in the stocks you gotta be in the equities and specifically in the EMP companies exploration and production companies. These are the companies. That won't be allowed to fail. I can't speak to the overall commodity these to say your risk was down two zero. That no longer applies. You can go less than zero but when you look at these companies each. Ut IS UP THIRTY PERCENT YEAR Today C. O. G. is up ninety percent year to date the charts are unbelievable stay with the equities. Stay with the EMP companies. That's where you're gonNA make the money. Is that a reason I mean? Is that a reason to invest in them. That you believe that there's going to be a government backstop behind these industries because there are a lot of other industries getting backstop. That don't that great. I agree with you. And yes to a large extent when you look at these equities. They're relying on government intervention on a lot of different levels whether it's supply demand levels or whether it's actual bailouts where they're going to get paid not to pump so longer term to answer your question. I don't like the space. But if you're gonNA give me this this deal right now where. I can be paid not to produce and to cut back then. I'm going to use that as a reason. Why The stock's up thirty percent. So profits are agnostic at this point longer term you have a multitude of problems in headwinds for the oil sector disagree. Tim. I don't disagree I I just WANNA say. This scene government support oil prices. The wrong thing that that actually concerns me. I WANNA I wanna get all the damage on the table. I WANNA see shut-ins. I don't want to support the oil price and I certainly don't want a job on it What we're getting to a place here is obviously. The supply dynamics. The speaker has to be cut off or we'll be shot off and that's very good for oil prices against the price action this week but it's the action in the market this week. This is the kind of news you need to see. I don't WanNa see people funding bad balance sheets and keeping bad companies alive. It's not about protecting American industry. Of course we want to do that but I think you have to be careful all right. Let's bring in now. Legendary INVESTOR MARK mobias founding partner of Moebius capital partners mark. You're joining us in the midst of conversation about crude oil and I'm wondering where you stand on this commodity whether or not we've seen some sort of a floor and I've equities will seemingly continue to take their cues at least in the short term from crude. Well I personally have made a bet that this low price will not less. I mean as soon as this say the middle of this year later this year. I think your bicycle recover so I actually made a bet on that But for emerging markets. Wonderful the fact that you have these low prices is very good for these countries that are importing or like China India. Turkey you go through. That list is very very good news. And you notice that China's talking up if filling up I think they're reserves are now filled up seventy percent of their storage capacity. I think they'll let up more so it is good news. Generally is that enough of a reason to be interested in emerging market equities. That's one reason but the other interesting thing it's amazing. I spent doing some numbers and from the peak to the lowest point on this pair market S. and P. Five hundred was down about twenty eight percent. Mci Emerging Markets Index. About twenty nine cents. So the difference was amazing to me because I figure that emerging markets would be hit more. You know. Now there's been a recovery from the low as you've seen fifteen percent roughly process and P ten percents premacy is emerging markets but generally speaking the declines for. Snp have been about twenty percents where we are now and twenty three percent for emerging markets. So the difference is not significant but the big difference of course is that many more bargains in emerging markets now because some of the companies of course gone down by sixty seventy eighty percent from their peaks. So there's great opportunity. Is there one name in particular? That is catching your I. I wish we can be watching that. People at home could be trading. Well I think because these emerging market stocks traded in the USO. Go together but if you look at our portfolio up again this is not a recommendation. I mean I don't know whether it would be silos buying but Yum example is listed in China's Chinese branch. No Kentucky Fried Chicken. That's one name. We have in the portfolio but generally speaking we're looking at these emerging market of frito companies. That are taking advantage of the Internet and trying new things in terms of delivery and so forth. That's really with stories now. Mark Great to speak with you. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you mark mobius capital Tim Seymour. Go to you. Yum See Alibaba. Those are the types of names of this. Sounds like Marcus talking about well. Marcus talking about the consumption Demographic Dynamic and emerging markets that also has any en veteran. We've been investing in for a long time and and so yes. Alibaba has been very defensive throughout a lot of this crisis and I think it will continue to be. We talked about their investment in cloud We've talked about the The earnings to you know to the growth ratio. The peg ratio is very strong about Marcado Lebron Latin America. How about a Yawn Dexin Russia? How about different ways in which the consumers either playing some type of of a online ecommerce or cloud or essentially on media these are ways to get exposure to the consumer. That's how you're going to outperform emerging markets because it for falling the index. It's making ten year lows and has probably will continue to market mentioned the tailwind that economies could get from. This lower price became. No you're worried about Japan. This theoretically should be great for Japan. Which imports all of its energy. Right but yes so that that's a win for Japan it's jail wing for China and I think that's the really important thing that mark pointed out is that you have to do in this environment really know your emerging markets. You can't just go say. Hey I'm GONNA buy emerging markets because some of these countries are going to be losers. Some of these countries need revenue from Kotte these which have crater so. I think it's how culture Japan but just like L. price spell here in the US. That's great gas. Prices are low. But if you're not driving anywhere cares point. They're coming up the clock. Maybe ticking for macy's can the embattled retailer make the right moves to stay afloat. We'll dive in and later. We're fast tracking the data. The two charts. That may tell the story what is in store for us from the Corona virus threats subsides. Fast when he's back into welcome back to pass twenty macy's falling seven point six percent today on news. Accompanies looking to raise as much as five billion dollars in debt to ride out. The Corona virus pandemic and avoid bankruptcy and. The clock may be ticking for macy's as well as other retailers Cowan estimates that macy's has got only four months left before runs out of cash while Kohl's Nordstrom. Jc Penney may only have a few months more than that before their tapped out so guy a race against time for the retailers but if we flip the switch and we open tomorrow with that change your mind in terms of macy's no because the trajectory for macy's prior to this corona virus was this direction. Now maybe we got here faster. Obviously we probably did but this just sort of sped up the process unfortunately so no. Five billion dollars by the way from macy's is not an insignificant number and all that say staggering number. The only reason I think to buy macy's here is you're hoping for short-covering rally into earnings in the beginning of the May short of that I don't see any compelling reason to go plowing into letter remedies levels I mean the market capitalization of macy's is is a fraction of that right tim a fraction of five million dollars at this point. Yeah it's one one point six billion I think something that today and I think the if you look at some of the parts the way some of these dynamics terms and the acid base herald square is probably worth as much as the asset class. They've got about five and a half billion dollars in debt today before they do arrays. So that's that's how investors are doing their calculus right now all right. Let's bring in Oliver Chen the senior retail analyst over at Cowan Oliver. Great to speak with you and you put together that report outlining various number of months that each retailer might have in terms of liquidity. And you're also concerned about some other retailers that might be in position to trip their covenant. So if you were to formulate a list of sort of like the poster children of troubled retailers who would be out there will. Unfortunately we are cautiously optimistic. What's happening here is the mall is in trouble. We're looking at mall retailers much more risk I think. Jc Penney's as well. We're watching that. We think may season. The liquidity needs working capital is a key need so these retailers are both delaying. The accounts payable also need to purchase goods for the important fall season. And so what we're looking at is really a disruption and consumer confidence also a transformation at the same time we've had a lot of problems in the mall and mall. Traffic has been negative so store. Closures. Co tenancies these debt covenants. They're all key risk factors of that being said you know China's starting to see some brighter spots so the consumer is still there and as we survey consumers they will come back to retail stores at some point. It's just we're watching consumer confidence. We're watching unemployment in this transformation. Happening with curbside social distancing. These are all huge factors also unemployment rate. So a lot of variables. But you also don't want to forget macy's has about five billion dollars real estate and they also have credit card cash flow about five hundred million dollars. Those are some underlying assets to consider a distress situation. I mean it's important to look at the balance sheets Oliver. But as you had said it's all about the consumer in their ability to continue spending. So let's let's say things remain shut down almost to the summer and we're pretty much at back to school. Almost near the holiday season shopping season consumers aren't feeling that much better unemployment is not improving too much. How do you then foresee the future for some of these department store retailers? It'll be very problematic because about thirty four percent of the Dot is worth quarter in the musket very critical especially back to school. August school is transforming. So what happens with team retail? What happens Domino's needs another holiday? Selling period is where retailers make all their money so these capital raises are are really essential. And there's no doubt we'll have filings and we'll have bankruptcies and that will spiral as we get closer to July August. These are big issues. The other big issue is what if we have openings and closings that is going to be extremely painful because clothing and apparel is a lot like food really expires quickly. And that'll be very disruptive to manage as well and keep in mind on the other side of this tons of promotion so we'RE RECOMMENDING COSTCO RECOMMENDING TARGET WE'RE recommending Wal Mart and we also think beauty. Beauty's that resilient trends so beauties been essential for some customers and so they online transat retailers like. Ulta being off mall are are more positively positions. I saw your note about Ulta. I think it was last week or so and and their balance sheet was surprisingly strong. Yeah it's it's a good position. Alta I think. Furthermore the online trends even accelerating as people really think about skincare haircare at home. And the essentials that you need in beauty and that's a great long term business model with a very good loyalty program very good online interface and mass plus prestige. It's a concept for the future for the long term and furthermore it's off mall so we're generally much more positive off ball and keep in mind as we look at this event happening they'll be market share gains with pain so JC Penney has lots of beauty. Macy's has lots of beauty in. It's been tougher for them. A player like Ulta can gain. Share and beauty is a resilient industry as you think about other recession. How do you play stocks in recession the lipstick effect right and really thinking about lower access price points as well? So there's a thesis there in terms of being interested in that name in the recession in the context of the recession. And that's something we're thinking about for clients investing as well. Oliver thank you Oliver. Chen of Cowen and company grow. So you like to go for best of breed here yes so costco and Walmart are best in breed in this space and just think about it. Cosco has built its world around ball Bein. Way Before Corona virus and. I think that people's behavior has changed and I don't think they're going to stop bulk buying after we even come out of this. And then you get the kicker of the membership rates and the renewal rates on membership are off the charts new ity with Costco Walmart. I would like to be there as well. It's up ten percent year to date for all the obvious reasons. They're very strong. Ecommerce so I don't think you can go wrong either way the other one that's been thrown out though target down sixty percent year to date. Maybe you could bottom fish a little bit there. Because I think they're strong brand they will survive but all of these names you WanNa think about. Who's going to be best coming out of this? Whose behavior is not going to change. I'm going to throw one more in their Amazon. We think about it as the everything stock but think about Amazon Pantry. How many people are getting stuff on a regular basis delivered monthly now? That never did that before me included and they're not going to cancel that Prime Video Prime Music. That's all shelter replace stuff. Don't forget. Aws the original catalysts to the Amazon story cloud is more important than ever would shelter in place. I feel like if you open that door. That's behind Grosso. You're gonNA find dozens of rolls of toilet paper talking about bulk buying when we say best in breed we're talking about the ones that have held up though like a Walmart which is basically at highs. So how do you wrap your head around valuation there? You can't I mean that's been that's been my concern all along about Walmart. It's just it's expensive and what I've said for awhile incorrectly correctly that if you like Walmart its valuation you. GotTa Love Target. I mean I find also interesting because you know people like me are gonNA flock there for our Grecian formula seventeen or whatever we use for little grays. We get through in these times but in terms of best of breed. Is that the one just from home in or whatever it is you could tell you. You know it's funny. You mentioned that you could tell that. Obviously I haven't used it in quite some time. But what I will tell you is something. We've been steadfast. And if you recall the game we used to play of. What's that thing we call that? The power-pitch many moons ago. We talked about this little company called dollar general and that sucker continues to go higher so if you want to be in retail. I think digi is the one that gets you done now. Which by the way fast pitch for fast money anyway coming up today we'll tell you what J. J. Strategy One strategy one analyst calls a master stroke and later a massive comeback in the semi space is today's search signal more strength from the sector bullock for some answers when fast money in return. Welcome back to fast money. Shares of Johnson and Johnson getting a boost today analysts bank of America. Upgrading the stock to a by saying defensive name should fare best in this unprecedented environment. They also point out the John. Jay outperformed the S. and P. Five hundred during the last two recessions by twenty percent or more introduce. Oh again this time around Tim. It was interesting because just last night. Final trade was take provinces name. Which by the way hit a new high in today's session. Yes that's true also my power. Pitch Fast Pitch. Whatever we're calling that game Back early last year and I like John J. I actually think this is a great company the fact that it's defensive company and historically especially in recessionary times you own names like this. I get that report The reality is that John Jay in their q one actually gave a v-shaped recovery guidance. The stocks done a v-shaped recovery. So when when we talked about it last year it was trading at about a fifteen to eighteen percent discount to the SNP multiple. It's closed that gap. You can make an argument trades at a small premium. That's my argument. My argument is I want to own this company a bit cheaper and that despite what we know is a pretty decent environment for for Pharma Certainly medical devices. We'll see I think there are other risk for the company. I don't know that our material but I don't see how this company is going to lose you to the upside and therefore my taking profits. Last night I stand by performance as a whole though one convenient side effect of the whole pandemic if there is an upside to pandemic and of course there isn't but but for the farm industry lease is sort of removed the attention from pricing pressure. That that's gone by the wayside. We are thankful now that the Pharma Companies Big Pharma and biotech companies are working so hard to find vaccines cures etcetera that. All of that pricing pressure talk. That's all out the window grasso. Yeah I think that was the biggest tailwind I take away from this space. Where Jay Jay's farmer unit is getting hundreds of millions of dollars to work on vaccines hundreds of millions of dollars to work on therapies? We are throwing money as a government throwing money at any company. That could put anything together. Could do anything to battle this virus so gone are those days at least for now. We know that. Dc has a short memory but at least for now. We're not dealing with pricing concerns until somebody screws up on the Pharma side having said that one fifty five running into tremendous Problem in the charts for resistance it when I look at the chart. J. J. TO TIM's point. It looks like the recovery was already front loaded so somebody already bought this thing worrying about a recession that was going to take place. That was a force recession so it could be front loaded already but without that worry where you lead into this question with me about pricing concerns you might have a little bit of juice left in the tank and then don't discount when you start to see any more positive headlines on therapies vaccines moving forward this space the entire biotech space biotech and Pharma right down the line. We'll see their next spike in prices. Well that's when you could sell them completely all right up next. We're fast tracking the data. The two charts that give us an idea of what might be sore on the other side of the corona virus pandemic and do not miss our special coverage markets in turmoil. Data's coming up tonight seven. Pm Eastern time right here on CNBC. We'll be right back. Welcome back past money as corona virus pandemic continues to spread across the US. We're introducing a new segment called fasttrack. We track in trade the data to show what life might look like on the other side became flag some data out of China today so once you walk through this this is really interesting yes so in a world trying to get an edge on this life look like and for our purposes. What does the economy look like on the other side? Our people react so Tom Tom the. Gps Company does traffic indices. They do for every city out there. So this is for rule on which was the center of the outbreak. And you look at what it was like in two thousand nineteen. That's an orange and blue what it's like today and what you see is weekday traffic down about twenty one percent but on the weekend it's absolutely flatlined so if we kind of project and say well maybe that's how people are going to be here in the US. Going to go to work Monday through Friday. But on the weekend they're still gonNA honcker and hunger and play stay in place and maybe that's what the world looks like going for. Tim. How would you try this data because you can go a couple of ways you can do the extrapolation of the United States? Which is what. Bk's doing or you can do the extrapolation to the Chinese consumer and you may think that maybe the Chinese consumer while they are coming back there. Isn't that sort of return to quote unquote normal yet in China and I think the Chinese consumer are you has a little potentially a little bit more of a tailwind from stimulus came into this a little bit weaker and but at the same time we also have Chinese macro data. We're a couple of weeks away again from getting another. We're going to April. Pm is but we're GonNa April import exports and those numbers that we got a couple of weeks ago. We're very encouraging especially on imports. Showing that the consumer. They were effectively flat on March. And so that very encouraging for the economy. That obviously was the first to go down. I think these are interesting. But we're questioning throughout the world whether there's GonNa be some boomerang effect or some unfortunate return of sickness and and the new slow over the last couple of days so it doesn't really tell you how we're going to respond to wave to if in fact that unfortunate error happens or maybe at least tells us that there's going to be a tepid. A Cautious Response Guide. Dommie and that when things do open up. Let's say Las Vegas for Instance Win CEO is urging you know the country the state the governor the mayor whoever the WHO will listen to him to reopen the Strip there but if they reopened will people come and I think that's the question here. You're reopen the economy. Who's going to go? Yeah that's the thing I mean. It can open anything but if NOBODY WANTS TO GO I. It's not going to really help quickly. I'll say this you know it's not coincidentally that the market today the SNP closed at a spot on fifty percent retracement of the recent loan. The all time high as did 276 did apple which is probably a lot of what this report was focused on. So if you're in the bulk camp we're making a base if you're in the bear camp that we've run too much you take profits here. Tend to be in the take profits here. Camp Mel all right. Here's the next chart work fast-tracking Morgan Stanley putting a note. Today highlighting the air quality of four major manufacturing cities in China now according to the report cities Jeonju which is home to Chiaba manufacturer. Foxconn are seeing seasonally. High levels of nitrogen dioxide suggests that production may be picking up an apples and battled supply chain. Could BE ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY Steve. Grasso do take heart from this air quality chart. Yeah I always a skeptic of all this information but I guess too much information is better than no information at all and apple was one of those that we thought would be the first ones to get back to work so I do take Hartnett and two guys point that to seventy five level and apple is also the fifty day moving average. So if you go. I'm long apple from much lower as many of the viewers are. I'm staying long Apple. If you WANNA use this to add money used the two seventy five level but think about something else services business is going to have a huge tailwind with shelter in place right now. It's at forty six billion if you want to buy apple if you WANNA buy best and brand new you've talked about about that and a number of other sectors apple is best in breed. Apple has the brand apple also has five. G. ADDED THE WIND AT ITS BACK. It also has the cloud it has the forty six billion. It's not going anywhere. It's got a cash whore so if you're looking out on the horizon companies that you want to invest in that are going to be around apples at the top of that list all right coming up and tell on. Deck to report earnings tomorrow. What are the options markets pricing? And we'll have that trade of next welcome back to fast money. We will learn a whole lot more about the state of the semiconductors when Intel reports earnings after the bell tomorrow that sock broke into positive territory for the year in today's session trader in the options market is betting tomorrow's report could pave the way for a double digits summer surge. Thank does the action. Hey Mike I'm Melissa. So Intel traded about two times as many calls as puts today in the options market is implying a move of about six point six percent that compares to about the five and a half percent. It is averaged over the last day quarters given the environment. We're in maybe. That's only a very modest increase intimated volatility. The trade that I was looking at that I found interesting. Was the July fifty seventy risk reversal in this trade. The trader sold the fifty thousand times and then bought a thousand of the seventy strike calls and collected about eighty cents a share to do it in this trade. They're collecting about one point three percent of the current stock price in yield between now in July expiration. Worst case if the stock falls are GONNA own it at fifty bucks a share which is only modestly higher than the lows that we saw recently and I can understand why you wouldn't want to buy the stock up over thirty three percent since then but of course they're getting near term appreciation and we'll really see profits. The stock goes above that higher. Seventy dollars strike price by July expiration three months. Now all right. Thank you Mike for that. Check out the Siamese back surging almost six percent in today's rally Tim. You would say that. Semi-desert leading economic indicator right. This could be a great sign. But do you buy into that. We certainly have a tremendous recovery off of yesterday's technical breakdown with Intel. They have the best exposure to at least the part of data center etc. That's most insulated here They tend to be very conservative on guidance. But every time we expected semi's in the fall in the worst of the trade war dialogue to be under pressure they really outperformed through this We've gotten good guidance from orderbook on Taiwan semi etc so I remain constructive. Not Negative guy me. How do you feel about Intel going tomorrow? Cheap on valuation it was cheap on valuation. It was racing ahead of all. This nonsense thing was trained. Sixty nine wouldn't surprise me to see it back there. Post earnings on the Mike Co Commentary. All right for more options action and more my co commentary. Be sure to tune into the full show. That's Friday five thirty. Pm Eastern time up final trade same now for the final trae. We go around the horn. Brian Kelly. This one's going to be a strange one coming from me but I think might be. The place and rope began. Wild I had to do double take became Boeing Grasso West Rock right now. It's a cyclical comeback if the market does this v-shaped bottom its stock. That's been under pressure is cyclical. Pull us out of this. If the economy is strong West Rock. Wer Came Seymour. A funny thing has happened to the finances. The last few quarters. They reported they reported and they went down. They started to pick back up as people understood the data in the context of the global economy. More the case now J. P. Morgan guides on me that's sunny out. It's such a such a lovely day and you know you can see Mel Tim. Seymour's got me thinking sixty six. Thank you all for watching fast back tomorrow. Five mad money with Jim Starts Right now the IBM cloud is the cloud. That's open that secure. That's built for business. It's also the cloud that's leading the way. But don't take our word for it. Chuck Gardiner Peer Insights to see why customers rate. Ibm cloud above aws. Google cloud and Microsoft Azure over the last twelve months as of February twenty eighth twenty twenty. Ibm Let's put smart to work. Garner peer insights reviews constitute the subjective opinions of individual end users based on their own experiences. And do not represent the views of Gartner or its affiliates.
Black Friday bargains, women's pensions and investment trusts
"This is a message to all the accountants out there. If you are worried that a robot is going to take your job become a certified management accountant, you see we are only programmed to mine data and crunch numbers. You'll have control over the strategy and the decision making so become a CNA and robots like me will help you not hurt you unless we short-circuit then all bets are off the certification. You've gotta earn it. Visit CNA certification dot org for details. Will you be rushing to grab a bargain on black Friday? The back to sixty campaign aims to reduce the state pension age for women. Born in the nineteen fifties. Money books, presented joins me to assess its chances and investment trusts could small companies bring investors bee's full returns. Welcome to the money shea. The F weekly podcast about personal finance and investing. I'm clap our FD money at his hip bringing all of this week's money news. Black Friday discount sales held the day after thanksgiving in the states to tempt shoppers out after the holidays, but we can blame the US retailing giant Amazon for importing the phenomenon to our stores over the past five years, the growing allure of British black Friday has changed the shape of pre-christmas spending. And some would argue drag the finances of struggling retail groups further into the red worse. Summoned now, claiming the discounted bargains offer anything, but Giovannini the Eddie's retail correspondent, he many listeners will remember as the former money editor joins me in the studio. Welcome. Jonathon Hello, again, say why has black Friday become such a big thing in person because it's basically a marketing event designed to drive traffic and footfall said traditionally shops held sales to get rid of surplus stock to get rid of end of season stocks, if you think about fashion retailers, they have sailing January to get rid of all your winter club in time for spring and summer, but black Friday and all its other sorts of clones around the world singles day, I'm as in prime day, cyber Monday himself on a roll basically aimed at offering discounts on a narrow range of products to get people in the door in the hope that they then spend money on something else. All of the things that they weren't intending survi-, or perhaps, they just wandering without anything particular in mind and just end up spending money, and you're right many stories in the t about the failing health of the highstreet in general lots of casualties this year. But I'd imagine black Friday's about as welcome as the black death for some recesses. It says they. In increasingly privately, they will say to you got y are we doing this? And in fact, increasing numbers of them aren't doing it. Now, so marks and Spencer is for instance, he's not really participating in black Friday. These days the reason they keep doing it basically is because everybody else does it. But it is a disaster for their finances. All happens is it pulls spending forward from December. When shops should be selling stuff at Christmas full price and making the most resources make most of their profits in the six weeks around Christmas. And you'd think they would have learned because this has already happened once the new year sales used to start in the new year. And then they started starting on the twenty seventh twenty eighth now they all start sort of basically midnight on Boxing Day or worse on Christmas. Yes. Queen's speech, you sort of browsing Amazon football games and not chiefs. The same result is yeah, it's a very poor deal for retailers and a lot of them are going about it. Now in a completely different way to the way, they used to do it in order to look like they're still doing black Friday, but in fine by mitigating the effects on their margins. So if I were to ask you if you were planning to do any bargain-hunting on Friday, I suspect the answer would be no, well, not quite I premium snoop around. So an imploding, I think you can actually get there. Awesome. Good deals on all that, you know, they're all deals available for shops that you're interested in. So for instance, Super Dry is offering to twenty percents off everything installed that seems like a reasonable deal to me if you like this stuff, and I have already bought a Christmas present, we'll get this is the thing. So I'm instantly thinking my stepson's quite like that kind of thing. But Canley successfully by an item get the twenty percent off hide it and also makes. Sure that they like it. Because by the time Christmas has been gone. It might be too late to return it thus right returns, by the way. Because because I'm black Friday's overwhelming in an online event now. So seventy five percents of the money that Spence around in the black Friday week spent online now the cost of returns, by the way is astronomical for retailers, especially because of the youth today. You know, they'll by six tops on boohoo, and they'll send five of them back, and there's an enormous cost to the company of that. But that's an aside say where else might you be doing some shopping, right? So I'll have a look around the usual clothing outlets. I think where you're going to be really careful is consumer electronics. And and this is where it black Friday has changed a lot since there's sort of famous scenes of people fighting over TV's in Astor four or five years ago. So I got a couple of deals hair that is sort of fairly typical things I'm talking about. So PC world is offering Hewlett Packard stream compete this like a basic computer sort of thing he might give two. Teenagers. I love stop. And then call this thing at one hundred ninety nine pounds, which is advertised as a saving of one hundred thirty pounds. So you think oh great. That's that's a hefty chunk off all of that. And then this in tiny print, you see that the higher price was charged from the ninth of October to the fifteenth of November a of thirty six days now two hundred quid is a fair price for a computer of the specification, but if you've paid three hundred twenty nine pounds for this you want your head examining monas-, not a real price. It's a made up price to justify big discounts. And here's another one. So e the mobile phone network of the loss of black Friday deals and one of the ones that Trump's is not belie phone success. And they're saying save one hundred and fifty pounds. I point to make about that is the iphone success is three years old now. So these fairly ancient no phones. In fact, I've just jettisoned my own one and they're saying, well, there's no upfront cost twenty nine pounds a month for twenty four months. So if you do that bit of math. Not six hundred ninety six pounds. You can buy the handset everywhere for two hundred ninety nine pounds on its own. So what that means is you're paying three hundred ninety seven for the calls package over twenty four months which works out at sixteen pounds fifty a month for which you got on limited minutes on them, sit text and one gigabyte of data. Longest it's not very much. No, it's not you can get plus net. Sim only deal for six pounds a month. So ten pounds a month less. So is that a good deal? No, it's rubbish deal on Friday or any other day. Well, fantastic stuff there. Thank you very much there to John Neely, the retail correspondent and super shopper that the F T. I won't be buying anything this black Friday. And that's why I've run it past him. I the debate over whether women born in the nineteen fifties were adequately warned about the acceleration in the female state pension age has stepped up again the campaign with the social media hashtag back to sixty demands. That state pension age returns to sixty for nine hundred fifty four women who are arguing that they spent most of their working lives believing that they would indeed receive the state pension at this age pool. Louis the freelance journalist and BBC money books presented has been following the campaign and joins me now on the line to discuss is chances. Welcome pool. However, say do you think there's any hope of changes? To the state pension age being reversed to sixty for this group. Well, it pains me to say, but no, I think there's no hope at all the department were can pensions is estimated it would cost seventy seven billion pounds, which is almost as much as the state pension costs each year. So that kind of money is not going to be spent by any government, however, much women say, but it's our pension we paid for it. So it may be a great injustice. It certainly seems to be a great injustice, but it's not going to go back to sixty. Now, certainly do have sympathy for the financial hardship. That the changes are call some women. I do. Absolutely. I mean, it's quite clear from both tritter and emails and other articles and talking to some of the women that many of them never realized that their state, pension nature changed. Now, we can argue about why they didn't realize many people think go will. I knew they should have known it within the papers themselves, which of course, it was. But for some reason these women who are in there. Thirties early forties at the time. The publicity was was out that didn't internalize the idea that it would be then they would actually have to have another five years of working life, and they carried on planning as if they didn't have to have another five years of working life and that does caused great hardship. Because first of all women in that but women in their fifties. Another mind their sixties do find it hard to get work. There is discrimination against them on grounds of age. Absolutely, no doubt about that. If if they expected to leave work and get their pension, then if they've maybe they have left work. Many of them have been made redundant or whatever finding another job is difficult and then subject to all those difficult rules of working age people about looking for work not just once or twice a week, but every single day improving you're looking for work all to get what is a very small benefit of the in many cases, just. Seventy three pounds a week. So I do I am. Absolutely sure that great hardship been caused by it. And I have great sympathy for the people affected in that way. So is there another way that this problem could be tackled by the government? Well, I think it could have been tackled by the government in the number of ways, they could for example, have said the four transitional periods. Women over the age of sixty wouldn't have to fulfill all those onerous looking for work conditions, and possibly they could have had a higher benefit more like what school pension credit, which is a means tested benefit for people over pension age. So those things could have been done or you could have found a way to have some kind of compromise or transitional deal. I really think it's too late for that. Now for for many of them Frank field, the MP who's select committee has been looking into this. As suggested that maybe the women could choose to have their pension. Earlier than sixty five or so, but they could have it at a lower rate. Now, the women have rejected that idea because that no rate would lost the rest of their lives. So I think things could have been done the problem. Now is that the pressure to do anything is sort of inevitably going off the boil a third of these fifties women have already reached pension age. So anything you did for them would be retrospective not popular not very lightly. And that's time pass is more and more of them will have reached pension age. So the pressure on ministers to do anything is really diminishing year-by-year and by twenty twenty five it will vanish. So all ministers have to do is sit tight and do nothing. And I I'm afraid to say I think that's what they're going to do. Well, certainly with the way the Brexit talks gang looks like they might not have many other options with thanks very much. That's a pool Lewis. You can read his column back to sixty and unanswered pension questions on the anti money website. Now, go to Eddie dot com slash money. Money. And if you'd like to tell us what you think about this story in the back to sixty campaign, send us an Email money at F, T dot com. Investment trusts have always been a popular choice with readers of F T money as they offer strong dividend yields liquidity, and seemingly endless choice. Whatever your investment style. Desired sector or geographic exposure, there's a trust out nephew last week after money reports a Cape barely explored the latest trends, and she joins me now in studio. Welcome cates. I say smallest beautiful. Well, it certainly has seemed to be a bit of a theme this year. So we've had the launch of two thirty high profile small and mid cap trusts. Now one is is is from Terry Smith. He's obviously quite a renowned investor but normally for a large cap in on Smithson October seventeenth, and that became the most popular ever investment. Trust launch type beating Woodforde before him raising over eight hundred million now that's a global equity trust focused on small caps. The arguably not that small surveys. Companies ranging from five hundred million fifteen billion average size of seven billion in there. And it's gonna invest in the kind of things he buys me funds myth, but a smaller scale really so another fairly well nine investor. Mark Mobius he launched his trust to the maybe it's investment trust. And that's emerging markets fund that will be looking for and the kinds of things they used to buy Templeton, his former former funds, but in this neutral. And there's a lot of volatility on stock markets at the moment, especially the big tech stocks, which has been the big race story for much of the past decade, so could small companies perhaps have better grave prospects. Well, the theory behind smoke investing is that small companies do tend to over the very long term grow faster or grow to a greater extent than large cap Marci companies, and that has been actually proved in almost every major market in the world. So if you hold them for long enough, you will see that's the kind of share price appreciation the best total returns, get example that its European small caps which have delivered almost three times their turn of mainstream European large-caps over ten years. Equally of this tech rally does come to an end and could be time for a new type of companies takeover and Cabela's. Good time to invest in small caps. But this is an undeniably volatile rights as well. Well, yes with the economy appearing to take it turned for the worse. Smoothie companies may. Have the defenses that the bigger ones have his lights and change in all of this. But finally are there any particular regions, which looked to be good bets for small company investors at the moment. Well, as you say, one issues bear mind here is that we're not quite sure where we are in this market cycle. And how long things will keep kind of heading upwards. Or when we might get a big crashes in Tennessee. And when does come small companies will be hit quite hard. They tend to be affected more sharply than large cap. So there are areas of the world which are currently on quite big discounts one of those Europe. Now, that's partly because people are worried about the outlook for Europe. But it does mean that it's quite good value area to invest in small cap, particularly some of the companies, they're kind of household names in this moment cap markets, but looking a lot cheaper than the large cap counterparts. The analysts also say that if you want kind of Dipa toe into smoke investing global could be. Quite good idea. Because then, you know, you're not restricting yourself to one part of the world you can pick and choose or the manager can pick a choose from from everywhere. So that could be a good way it's going to get started. And then another area on a big discount that you mentioned in your piece is of course, Darrell Blighty. Yeah. Yes. You K smoke caps looking incredibly unloved at the moment as much of the UK markets. In fact, I mean that's in large part because you know, investors are worried about the outlook for small cap and domestic facing stocks as we kind of enduring Brexit, but if you are kind of a long term investor there could be some value there if you find hold. Yeah. Well, we keep a firm eye on what's happening in Westminster over the next few weeks theme will be coming to you and your money very soon. We'll thanks very much. There's Kate Billy. You can read more about her articles on investment trusts on our website FDA dot com slash money where you can also find some pieces that we've done about black Friday. In the meantime, that's it for the money show this week. I'd like to get in touch with our team of experts. You can Email us money at FDA dot com. Or follow us on Twitter needs alerts at F T money, and we'll be back though, the usual time next week goodbye. This is a message to all the accountants out there. If you are worried that a robot is going to take your job become a certified management accountant, you see we are only programmed to mine data and crunch numbers. You'll have control over the strategy and the decision making so become a CNA and robots like me will help you not hurt you unless we short-circuit then all bets are off the certification. You've got to earn it. Visit CNA certification dot org for details.
Fast Money 03/25/2020
"What IS DECISION TECH BY FIDELITY? It's technology that can help you find a stock based on what's trending or investing goal. It's real time insights and information delivered in your own customized view of the market. It's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services. Llc MEMBER NYSE SIPC or no deal stocks giving up a big chunk of their game signs that a massive two trillion dollar relief bill could be delayed Bernie Sanders and four. Gop SENATORS WELCOME CBC's continuing coverage of these markets. I am Brian Sullivan checkup a late day. Move in the market and you could see the market taking a big hit into the close right at the end of the day. That's as Senator Bernie. Sanders came out and said that he will hold up the two trillion dollar package if the GOP senators do not change their views on what he calls corporate welfare. The Dow did manage to finish the day in the green however but well off ties still want to find a positive. It is the first back to back days in the gains in the Dow. Since early February. A lot of today's Riley was driven by Boeing optimism. Around bail out there helping Boeing post a twenty four percent gain. Its best day ever since the Nineteen Sixty two IPO. We're GONNA dig into all of this. Tonight's traitor panel guy. Tim Stephen K. They're all standing by for you. Plus you'll hear from New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. State just reported one of its biggest single-day jumps in corona virus cases where to speak with the governor about what is being done to stem the outbreak. And help all those hardworking men and women and their businesses in the garden state as is becoming a trend lately we are also waiting a White House briefing on the virus. We're going to bring it to you. Live as soon as it occurs but let us begin with that bombshell out of Capitol Hill where we are seeing new signs. That stimulus aid bill could be delayed. Latasha she is live in. Dc with more on this developing story Kayla. Brian there are some late day. Snags in the stimulus bill. That was supposed to sail through with bipartisan support. After days of round the clock negotiations now progressives Alexandria Akhazia Cortez and Bernie Sanders or vowing to gum up. The works and delay vote in either chamber if Senate Republicans succeed in getting changes that they have sought earlier today. A OC tweeting. There is absolutely no good reason. Why Senate Republicans are tying a historic corporate giveaway to getting relief? Money in the hands of Families Sanders says if Republicans get their way that he'll move to add more conditions to the five hundred billion dollar loan program that he is calling a corporate welfare fund earlier today three Senate Republicans objected to the fact that four. Some states workers who are laid off and get unemployment benefits would be making more than they would have made had they been employed. They say that that is a perverse incentive. Here's Senator Lindsey Graham describing earlier this bill pays you more not to work then. If you were working very few people are going to turn down a twenty four hour dollar deal not to work a GOP aide says that this is the result of trying to standardize. The dollar figure paid out to laid off workers in different states a second. Gop aide says that it's understood that there will be changes needed to appease either side but it's still unclear how substantive those would be Brian. Or a killer she in DC kill. Thank you very much. Of course we're going to hear much more in all of this tomorrow morning when we interviewed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. That'd be at nine. Am Eastern time. We may or may not have a deal by then all right. Let's now bring in tonight's trader panel making kind of feel like the fast money of old guy. Dhamma Tim Seymour. Steve Grasso and Brian Kelly names you know and trust great to chat with guys wherever you may be guided me. Let's begin with you as well. I Two Day Rally for the Dow it a month. Do you take some comfort from that absolutely in an hi Brian. Hi Everybody Yeah you have to take comfort and it without question Encouraging something I said yesterday sort of rings true as well. Today I know you've mentioned Bernie Sanders. And how he sort of putting a Kabosh on this rally a little bit today but I gotTa tell you something yesterday. The volatility index went from fifty two to sixty one today. The volatility index closed higher on the day and we can speak to how good indicator that's been in this environment but the fact that the vix is going higher on a day or two days when the Dow's up somewhat twenty five hundred or so points is a little bit is a little bit disconcerting. I think it speaks to me that I don't think we're necessarily out of the woods yet. Bryan yes a little bit weird there on that. Vic something to watch all right Tim Seymour. Let's talk about watching Boeing. At twenty four percent gain. The market is obviously betting that this stimulus deal is going to get done because Boeing I guess would be a massive beneficiary of it unless something material is changed in it between now and the vote. Well again Boeing's deal is also about the airlines getting a deal and Look at Airbus. We've talked about this in terms of the impact. The bigness for balling today was discussion. That 737 Max in June begins production. I think it's critical. It's critical certainly ultimately for a company that people want to believe the former business model worked and airlines have the same appetite. And obviously there's still a lot to work through on the public relations in the FAA side. But that that's the kind of movie you've seen and over the last two days. People done the math. I mean you know Boeing hit a low of ninety one or eighty nine dollars and at some point today. Intraday was in the in the seventies. So this is the kind of reaction that if this company has a balance sheet and again I focus on the commercial aircraft. Then this is a company. That's not only gonNA survive but it will remain one of the better companies out. There tremendous headwinds short to medium-term and I you know as someone that's long the name and actually believes in the longer term business model. It's far from easy sledding here but with support from the government with support from the airline industry and with a plan to get this plane back into production. That's what we're waiting for. Not An overstatement based on what we've seen to say that every day hundreds of thousands if not more. Americans are losing their jobs everyday so it's hard to believe that the senators are not going to kind of come to some conclusion and get a deal done. That said we've seen things happen. Congress before if a deal is delayed by a day or not signed for a day or a week. What's going to happen to the market? Yeah you know it's funny. Hey Brian I. It's really funny because I traded through Through multiple crisis but I remember distinctly trading through two thousand eight two thousand nine when everybody thought well obviously the Senate and the Congress has to pass our And they didn't and the market just tank and so you know. I think there's a danger of bat again. I'll be shocked if that happens but I do think there's a danger of that happening. I mean you know. Our government by design is supposed to be slow and clunky and inefficient. And we're trying to pass something that people need money today. I mean there are people with forty dollars in their bank account over forty percent of the. Us population has only four dollars in their bank account. You know by the end of this week. It's GonNa Start to get tight for people so this is more of a humanitarian crisis in a political issue. At this point I mean. Dsw warehouse ticket eighty percent of their staff on basically leave without direct compensation. They will have employee benefits. But they're not getting paid. Steve Grasso. That story is replicated all across the country. We know that the market is supposed to be discounting mechanism predict. The future may be six eight nine months out. Do you feel that Monday was a bottom? I don't know if you could necessarily call the bottom just yet Bryan. Obviously this market is going on stimulus right now because it wants a treatment Watson vaccine. We're not getting either one of those so it's all on stimulus. Right now. Was Monday bottom when I look across my desk and I see that equity stakes or what scooping the market now even with the stimulus. I don't know if you can call the bottom into you. Really get a treatment or a vaccine. But I'm definitely encourage going into month. And because of the woody amount that needs to be purchased for pension funds. Yeah and that's it. I mean there's so many large-scale problems out there guy. It's almost impossible to know where to start. I want to talk about apple though. Let's get a little bit micro. That stock fell in Nikkei reporting that apple. Maybe delaying its five g phones. We might start to see some longer term impacts if that indeed report is true on these names that have been powering. This rally. You guys have talked about fast money for five years. If if Microsoft an apple those they start to roll over continuously what then you gotta find a place where you think. It's safe to get back into the water in terms of apple and if you're looking for levels then again. I'm not suggesting by any stretch. It's getting there but you know that if you go back to the to twenty level which was sort of the the highs. We topped out in June and July. Two Thousand Nineteen and prior to that. And May I mean that makes a Lotta sense so you have to sort of say to yourself? Look if this stock gets to these levels regardless of what's happening in the world I'm going to step in and buy you know you have to have a plan going in because if it gets there I'll tell you right. Now it's GonNa look terrifying. But quickly on the Boeing Front and Dan Nathan alluded to this. I think the fact that Boeing came back and told the government they have no interest in being deluded by them in terms of an equity stake. I think that was really encouraging for the broader market. I think a lot of people were playing bowling from the short side thinking. It's going to get extraordinarily dilute of the stock. It's going to be have a fifty handle and I think that caught a lot of people off guard. So don't underestimate the power of the Boeing. Move on this broad rally over the last couple of days. Yeah Tim can I ask you to focus on Ford? The stock maybe thirty minutes ago the company getting its credit rating downgraded to junk by. Snp obviously for many reasons. The stock is down after hours. I brought this up last night with guest and I'll just ask you because I know that you're a plane speaker. Do you think that there needs some kind of a hold put on these credit rating downgrades? I'm not knocking Moody's Fitch I'm just saying these companies are facing these executives. Events is not because their business is inherently bad. Do you think we need to stop that or just let that function the way it always has. I wouldn't stop thing. I mean ultimately I want to understand what the the Bouchier these companies look like Ultimately debt covenants are what they are dead. Investors Invest in credit investors certainly are judging their entire livelihood based upon again the ability to pay dot the willingness. So I like. Gm was downgraded as well. Today what we're going to see what we've said all along while we got so worried about this trough of essentially tripled the debt. That was out there. Across the investment grade corporate sector is that the downgraded Johnke was gonna be dramatic and it was going to be significant having said all that again. I think if you look at the investment grade credit investment scenario not what a lot of our investors A lot of our audience look at but just in terms of understanding what is most oversold. I would say investment grade credit is probably cheap relative to its long-term average as much as any other part of the market but do I need credit rating credit rating agencies To step in now in downgrade. I mean you know. I'm not sure that's doing the a lot of good or telling me what I didn't already know. And again Ford over in terms of credit exposure and I would say that concerns there are significantly greater but look market has to do. Its job. Alice have to do their job. Transparency has to be there. You can't you can't placate you. Can't I think that that would be disturbing to me? The fact that the feds getting involved in handling where Both the public that consumer and certain companies need a bailout. That's fine but saying that we can't look at the market for what it is and understand where companies went into this over there sees and are now that much more beleaguered. I want to know that they need to do that job. Okay I hear. It's a fair point. Became I guess. My point is listen. Ford built up. Its own one hundred and fifty six billion in de the actual number. But if we're being told we can't leave the house to go buy a car. I mean we just can't actually do that in many states. I do wonder if companies are going to be sort of unfairly punished by the market. I mean fair is a subjective term. I get it. We've literally never had this kind of situation in modern American history. Yeah I mean listen we have a government mandated recession. Everybody closes desk. Stay at the grocery store and hopefully not to see your dot right and so. That's no company's fault necessarily You know so so. I think there's an argument to be made there that you need to kind of look through that That being said I actually think Ford is a really interesting stock to watch for tomorrow. I'm always looking for a stock that trades really well on bad news panthers that means it's flushed out. That means it's priced in so I would watch for tomorrow morning and see if that thing starts to go green that's going to be a really positive sign for the market because it means you know what everybody knew. This was coming. That's old news now. We're looking forward so I if there's one name I'm looking for tomorrow it's board and how traits green shoots for the blue light to hear it a little optimism. Pk There Steve. Grasso leave it with you. Listen tomorrow morning going to get that unemployment number of the weekly jobless claims number. I tweeted out last night. It could be a five million people. Applying for unemployment benefits does the economic data is going to impact trading at all or. Do you think everybody just no matter. How bad numbers are the market is probably already priced that in so so the problem is the market and intelligent. People can price that in but the market has had this systemic technology algorithm arrhythmic. Drive to it so I think the algorithms are GonNa read that number just as negative as if it wasn't out there already and just negative as if all of us didn't realize it was already gonna be. That's where you can get the flush but I think the other interesting point about Ford. Gm is that the way this rule is written in in the stimulus plan. I'm not sure that the Fed could find their debt so we have to get a little bit brand new. Maybe change that. Maybe we'll change the wording on that but I ask because interesting to say to the credit rating agencies. Take a powder. Let's revisit this in a month or two guys. We do appreciate it Guy Donnie Tim Seymour Bouquet. And Steve Grasso guys appreciate it. Be well thinking of you all right. Look forward to the day that everybody's around this guess again all right on the head of the. Us Chamber of Commerce is with us what he likes the relief bill and what businesses around America still need from it assuming it is ever signed and later on Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. His state now has the second highest number of cases in the nation. Were to talk to him about what he is doing. Just trying to stem the outbreak. Protect all those hardworking small businessmen and women across the garden state. Stick with us. What IS DECISION TECH BY FIDELITY? It's technology that can help you find a stock based on what's trending or an investing goal. It's real time insights and information delivered in your own customized view of the market. It's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity opening account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services. Llc member NYSE SIPC quarterback what we hopefully await the passage of the two trillion dollar relief built. Let's focus our attention to the economy. Hundred Sixty three million Americans during the labor force yesterday. Canada had five percent of its labor force file for unemployment benefits which means if we posted the same rate of jobless benefits tomorrow morning as Canada. Being five million Americans applying for unemployment benefits in one week and would array six years of job gains across the country joining us now. Is Tom Donahoe? Ceo of the US Chamber of Commerce. Tom It's good to chat with you again and I mean let's hope the number is not that large but at this point we just don't know and yet Congress continues to seem to dither over the details. Where do we stand on the bill? Are you optimistic? Something is going to done absolutely. I believe that we can count on something being done either this evening or the first thing in the morning the deal is all cut. There happened to be a few senators that are as sort of Exercising Some of their ability to have a different view. But it's GonNa get past and we're asking the House of Representatives and not the bonded. Come back they don't have to. There's a way to just have them approve it tomorrow. We need to do that because we need to. Take all of these resources. We've assembled under this. Very Good Bill and beginning mmediately to distribute them around this country so that no company goes bankrupt. Knows CITIZEN GOES bankrupt. No family goes bankrupt. We have things in this bill to avoid. Let's do it you. And what's amazing in sort of bizarre? Tom Is that you've got parts of the economy that are working. Obviously the first responders they are working all the hardworking people at the grocery store and the truck drivers and delivering it by the way. Some of us here as well. The Nasdaq but in other parts aren't and so we see this. We see like you talked about four getting its credit rating downgrade. And I brought up the idea of maybe pausing some of this stuff. Do we need just kind of a real two to three week? Total pause in the economy. I feel like we're kind of halfway there. Well YOU BRIAN. You know we can't. We can't pause. The part of the economy produces and delivers food to the shelves of stores in the people that sell them. We can't do that with gasoline. We can't do that with the people that provide power generation for the whole country. We and we can go on and on their hundreds of services and companies. That are out there doing their job. what we're trying to do if you look for a second on the pen dynamic is you're not going to cure this whole thing. The idea is to push down that bubble and get it down flatter so that we'll be able to have adequate services in every city across this country to take care of those that are really sick and need our soon after that. We're going to start moving more people back to work but that has to be done in an orderly cooperative business between the government the United States and the medical professionals both in the government and out of the government so that we make things better not worse. And I think we're on our way to get there not tomorrow not next week but soon. Is there any realistic estimate? Or indication of the financial damage that has been done to the small businesses across the United States. We have anything yet. Well we've talked about data in recent hours and the point is you're not gonna be able to figure that out until put the resources that we're going to put in place and see what is not there to be rescued and we can even then go back and bring people back into a company that have already been. Let go and have those loans which turn into grants and companies will be able to You know get out of a hole that they might be. I'm not sure what the number is GONNA be. It'll certainly be something but we're GonNa put a minimum right away of three hundred and fifty billion dollars in too many of these programs and when you add it all up for the big companies. The small companies the hospitals and everybody. That's going to get a break here. All the individual workers And then go to what the Federal Reserve and the and the Treasury are going to be able to do together. They're going to have a package that will go up four trillion dollars. You know the last two. Of course you're going to have to pay back but. I think we've taken a big step forward. We need to do it. Four and a half times larger than two thousand nine but quickly time you do remain optimistic. Bill will get signed by soon. I'm an Irishman. I've watched what this country could do for a long long time. We're doing it. We're a little slowdown with what's going on in Washington. Probably not heard this yet but we gotta move on it right now. I'm an absolute optimist. This country will stand for nothing else. Well Tom I'll tell you. What when this thing hol wraps up when we get back together again. The First Guinness is on me. Irishman Irishman. Tom Donahue thank you very much about it man. I'll be there all right. Choose Tonight at seven o'clock and important program for you to tune in to be sure to catch a special CNBC townhall pandemic and the path Ford. We're to speak with former chief White House advisor. Gary Cohn Mark Cuban Nasdaq CEO need a Freedman John. Rogers Ariel investments in former FDA heads Scott Godly to not miss it tonight. Seven all right up next to this back to your money. Market veteran mark mobius trying time the challenges all of our basic assumptions. However one thing that brings us all together is our common humanity now more than ever teams must come together and work together to solve big challenges and Trello is here to help trello part of Atlassian collaborative sweet as an APP with an easy to understand visual format plus tons of features that make working with your team functional and just plain fun teams of all shapes and sizes and companies like Google fender and even Cosco all used Trello to collaborate and get work done with Trello. You can work with your team wherever you are whether it's at home or in an office no matter what device you're using computer tablet or phone. Trello sinks across all of them so you can stay up to date on all the things your team cares about. Keep your workflow going from wherever you are with Trello try Trello for free and learn more at Trello DOT com. That's T. R. E. L. L. O. DOT COM TRELLO DOT COM. Find out where he is finding opportunity around the world and these wild swings and then New Jersey Governor Phil. Murphy's steak just reported one of the biggest single-day jumped in cases but he may have some good news on. We're GONNA ask about that. And what is being done to protect the garden state sticker up all right welcome back. We are very pleased to be joined on. Cnbc by Phil Murphy. Of course he is the governor of New Jersey Governor Murphy. Thank you very much for joining us. During these difficult times I saw Bryan. Thank you and you know as listed as a New Jersey resident. I'm glad to speak with you as well. And there's so much fear around what's going on right now. I understand that anxiety levels are up. I actually heard that you had a little bit of. I think good news earlier today where you said as bad as it is. We need to remember that. Eighty to eighty five percent of cases. End Up fairly mild. Is that correct data. I'd say moderate to mild Brian. And that's that's the that's the the worldwide trend and that's important for folks to know so we'll see where the number two impacted state right now. In America we have forty four hundred folks who've tested positive. We've lost sixty two precious lives. We knew these numbers. We're going to go up. Were in a war and I would just say to folks no time to panic but also no time for business as usual and this notion of staying home and social distancing and allow us to build out capacity aggressively in the Healthcare System. That combination will allow us to deal with this. And I've got a good friend. Who is a doctor at Robert Wood? Johnson obviously the doctors and nurses. They are working their tails off here night night and day. What is being done as far as extra facilities tents outside where do we stand on respirators ventilators? Yep So we've got On the I'll put aside social distancing and flattening the curve and staying at home to one side for a second although that's really important on the healthcare side there are three variables were trying to expand as dramatically as possible critical care beds personal protective equipment including a ventilators and thirdly the healthcare workforce who are heroes right now on the first two. That's a lot of not entirely and not exclusively but that's a lot Senator our relationship with the federal government. I was on with Vice President Pence earlier. We'll be back at it again tomorrow. About to get on a call. With the FEMA administrator we have four field hospitals being delivered right now from Femur region to the army chorus helping set them up. We're opening wings of hospitals. That were closed. We're looking at opening hole hospitals that were close converting things like dorm rooms for low symptom folks a lot going on there secondly on personal protective equipment. We just don't have enough And it's really frustrating. We've got a big asset to the federal government to their credit. They've given us to slugs but we we need a lot more. We're turning over every stone. Private sectors stepped up in a big way. We cancelled elective surgeries as a Friday. So those those Health Care Centers. We're going to get equipment. They're it's literally trying to scrap for every bit of it. The prices are going up the world market. We're all competing with each other as you can imagine if that's a big that's a big challenge and then expanding the workforce or things like school nurses retired nurses and healthcare workers Folks who are in the last semester in there to get their degree of folks who have a licensed state giving them a license to practice in New Jersey. So those are the three big initiatives on the healthcare system side. Were full speed ahead on all three trying to get out ahead of this thing. We're we're talking about this stimulus plan from a federal level governor. I wrote something quickly today. Basically saying you know like if you want to build a stadium you basically float the bonds and then you build the stadium and then you sort of pay it back with taxes and hotels and everything else. Is there something that New Jersey is looking at doing on the statewide level that we can New Jersey is a state where people the family owned? Restaurant still exists. It's not all big chains. Not taking anything away from them. How do we make sure that those small businesses across the state can survive discovery? Yeah I mean listen. Crushed As have the workers we had two choices. Bryant from the get-go we started meeting on this January. So we've been at this for months. One one possible road would have been to let the virus runamuck and taking nervous economic pain as a result with a lot of fatalities and folks who get sick the other road that we have chosen affirmatively to take every step of the way as to rip the band aid off take economic pain upfront but break. The back of the Corona virus hopefully keep our fatalities and sicknesses down and then reopened the economy. I still think that's the right way to go. I don't think you can reverse that order. And there's no price that's too much for us to try to save every single precious life. But in the meantime folks are getting crushed. The Federal Bill in Congress that you're referring to is a huge x factor for US assuming it comes out the right way and it gives us flexibility for workers who are unemployed for small businesses hospitals transit systems for the state itself. Frankly we're getting crushed as you can imagine That's a huge lifeline for us. Potentially going forward drove up here today on the TURNPIKE governor. And I don't need to tell you but it's but it's empty. What what also means is that the revenues for the Parkway and the Turnpike and the Lincoln Tunnel. These are lost. Revenues are the pension fund. Where do we stand on funding levels for critical services like the highways and roads? We need to get the trucks up and down into the grocery store as well as what's the state of the pension plan data the pension plan as you can imagine it's been is challenged The past couple of days in the market have been good ones and I don't know whether or not that continues or not. But the pension plans like any pension plans around the country have been hit sideways And so they're going to need some time here to stabilize Again I think the order of events here as painful as it is is to break the back of the virus and then responsibly begin to open society and the economy back. The president has mentioned Easter I listen I I hope he's right. I'll be the happiest guy in New Jersey. Just based on the data. We're looking at I. I don't know based on science and medicine and one. I don't think we're going to be there. Yeah I hope we are But we're prepared for the worst You Know Nj Transit got clobbered we asked for You know from the feds billion and a half or two The Parkway and the Turnpike Are largely self sustaining. Although as you rightfully point out traffic is way down which is by the way. That's what we want right now. We want people to stay at home as painful as that may be We're GONNA need the help from the federal government to get back on our feet. We're going to get through this. Where New Jersey? After all right. So we're GONNA get through this But AIN'T GONNA BE UNSCATHED AND IT won't be tomorrow but if we all do our part we will get there and we're still seeing price-gouging from what I understand hoarding price-gouging how do we stop that. Hoarding less so Although that's been a challenge price gouging the attorney general was with me yesterday. We're taking aggressive action We're also taking aggressive action at firms who employ people who don't let them work from home or don't allow them to social distance so or non compliant behavior. Some knucklehead was coughing on someone yesterday in a supermarket. Another guy was doing that today to medical personnel claiming he had the corona virus. Anybody who takes advantage of this time We will deal with swiftly and aggressively. Yeah I mean you gotTa Look at Criminal Charges for folks like that I mean. It's it's incomprehensible in this time. So what's the message to? I know there's a lot of people that are watching from New Jersey right now it's got a big CNBC audience. Many of them are business owners. Whether it's a restaurant a dry cleaner or financial services firm gas station. Whatever it is. You'll what's your message to them. Everybody right now. I think needs a little bit of hope. Listen WHO WE UNDERSTAND. It in anxiety is high and we get that. My job is to shoot straight with each other and listen. This is a war We we won World War Two. Not 'cause we panicked but we stayed the course. We were proactive. Smart aggressive. We worked our tails off. We had courage. That's exactly what we need right now and we know the pain is high right now. Both of isolation stay at home. Small businesses folks who are out of work but I I I know with all my heart. The order here is to kill the virus and get through the surge and get that behind us and then we can begin to get our economy and our society back on our feet if we all do our share. We all do our part from the little things washing with soap. All the way up to the bigger ones We will get through this and we will emerges estate stronger than ever before. I like the message final question if I could. Governor is a lot of people are also wondering about the schools. Because here's the challenge as you know there's millions of people around the country probably a million plus or more New Jersey who probably can't go back to work if their kids are home all day because school is effectively their childcare. How do we balance out? Keeping family safe teachers save kids safe school safe but also enabling people. That might need to go back to work to be able to do that. How do we make decisions on school so so Brian? I just made an announcement today that I had signed an executive order which is gonNA focus our daycare in specifically to first responders healthcare workers essential workers in our state to make sure it was there. Frankly exclusively for them. Schools are going to stay out for for for more time. I don't have an answer for yet in terms of how much longer but it's GonNa be a while longer And we understand the daycare pressure one hundred percent. We've got to start with healthcare. Healthcare workers first responders essential Workers in our current configuration and that we can expand in back in Phil from there We we had no choice but to close the schools. They'll be closed for a while longer. We've got to be able to get that balance right and again. Pull out of this stronger. I hope never before Governor Phil Murphy of the Great State of New Jersey Governor. Appreciate your time. Thank you for joining us. Good to be with you all right. Thank you all right still ahead. We are awaiting that White House. Press briefing on the corona virus. We're GONNA look for any comments on the aid package. That might be working. Its way through Congress as well also expected out mark mobius joining US feigned investor on what to do with the markets and your money right. Now stick around. I walk back. Let's get you up to speed on the very latest on the Pandemic Soomro back. It seemed to see. Hq With that. Sue Hello Brian. Hello everybody we're going to start as we usually do with the latest numbers. Global cases have risen above four hundred. Sixty thousand the death toll is nearing twenty. One thousand in the US there are more than sixty two thousand cases nearly nine hundred deaths. Apple's CEO Tim. Cook has gone on twitter to urge people to follow the guidelines from the health experts but he also announced a major donation by apple apple is has sourced procured and as donating ten million masks to the medical community in the United States. These people deserve our debt of gratitude for all of the work that they're doing on the front lines and we did a little digging and believe it or not. There is a patron saint of Epidemics. And she is Saint Corona. Yep you heard me correctly. A CATHEDRAL IN AACHEN. Germany has dug out the relics of the little known saint and is polishing her shrines. So people can come worship. After the corona virus pandemic passes Saint Corona was buried at the Cathedral which is one of Europe's oldest in eight fourteen as always for more on the corona virus coverage at CNBC GO TO CNBC DOT COM Ryan the patron saint of epidemics. Yes is seen Corona Corona. You heard me correctly. Double checked it. Actually I triple check. I don't doubt it I just. I hunt that some really good sign from above term. I hope so. Basically news organizations picked it up because people in Italy where we're praying to her very openly from their balconies and that people were like what do you mean? Sink RONA SO. That is where she is buried in this cathedral and that was an eight fourteen. But she is the patron saint of epidemics and they want people to come see her after the pandemic is done. I'm looking at me. Amazing live during the time of Marcus Aurelius Sue Herrera. Thank you very much soon. Got It BRAGWELL YOUTUBE ALL RIGHT. Coming up bailout. Crackdown media. Mogul Tom. Rodgers will join us and he says needs to happen if corporate America gets a big check from Uncle Sam. Later what you'd be doing with your money during these wild market swings to a wall. Street's top strategist join us on just that we come back and welcome back to see me. Sees continued coverage of the markets in turmoil of. You're just joining us. Stock surged today. A bit as investors waited final details of that two trillion dollar relief. Bill in Congress kill. She broke the news earlier today. That part of the stimulus bill could include a one year moratorium on stock buybacks that any company that takes a loan from the government must adhere to and your next guest wrote an op. Ed in Newsweek. Saying that's only the beginning of what needs to be done bringing win view executive chairman. Tom Rogers also the founder of this network. Cnbc serves number of corporate boards. Tom It's great to chat with you. Again is your belief that any company that takes money should not be allowed to do a share buyback. Yes no doubt but before I get into that let me just say having been CNBC at the launch. I have never been prouder of what you and your colleagues doing under incredibly tough circumstances and special Kudos to you and your producer Kevin. Flynn just doing terrifically. Informative show under very trying. I'm so I think during my from everybody. Cbc Thank You Look CEO pocketbooks. can't be our primary concern right. Now we got to think about everybody's help Workers pocketbooks main streets all businesses but part of all. This is maintaining support for the actions. That are being taken now and looking ahead to the consequences of all this unprecedented action and all the fear that everybody has right now about what's going on in the market and watching their pensions and 401K's diminish Is All GONNA turn from fear to anger if CEO's and corporate executives make it killing here and it's one thing to ban by backs during a bail out that's kind of an obvious issue and clearly a bad use of cash? Although I don't think a very likely use of cash but the rear backlash will come. If companies that are health Graham options to their top executives at these deeply beaten down prices and then off the back of government loans or government. Bail backs Their stock rebounds and they're able to make a killing having gotten stock options are restricted stock at these incredibly low levels. So it's one thing to watch out or wasteful use of money like buy backs in the midst of this. It's another thing to make sure that the kind of things that are really gonNA generate anger down the road. We protect against. Yeah I mean you you noted in your pet I mean the airlines have taken forty billion dollars in buybacks over the last ten years or so. Now they're looking for relief and they will probably get. It may deserve it because we need them to be up and running once. This is over but our memories Tom or not that long lost from two thousand eight two thousand nine two thousand ten. They're still going to be a lot of anger around this when all the dust is settled. I think that's absolutely right Brian. But you look back to two thousand eight and the auto bailouts and the CEO. Four at the time Got A reduced salary package shape some cash for the company in the midst of that but also a stock option package that somehow is valued at the time at about sixteen million dollars two years later in two thousand eleven that was worth two hundred million dollars and it just makes absolutely no sense to allow corporate executives who were getting bailouts that get stock grants of any kind that allow for that. Kind of huge compensation. Bonanza ends up in the midst of this and that's the kind of thing that will create enormous anger and has to be protected against Tom. One of the companies. You you work actually run win. View and others Involves online gaming. I WANT TO SWITCH GEARS. Just a bit online gaming. We're seeing the world change in many ways right now. We are learning that. Maybe we don't need to work in the way that we use to. Maybe we don't need to play in the way that we use to. There was a virtual NASCAR RACE ON LINEAR television on Fox sports over the weekend. What are your projections for? How this ultimately changes how we work. How live and how we play. Well I've been filing this area very closely. Because when view is you know is in the midst of a merger with two other companies one of which is a public company called toward East Sports. That specializes in car racing. And it has been putting on east sports competitions that are available to watch from home and the surge viewership this urge in His ability that they have gotten over the last week is quite astounding Something that I think is going to be part of a long term trend is we're all at home thinking more and more about how do you entertain yourself at home to able to have that kind of ongoing sporting events that is virtual not real? But has all the excitement of a real. Sporting event is something that is clearly a major macro trend so I am convinced that we will come out of this With a lot of pain tablets about entertainment about the work and Generally what it needs to turn your home into something where you can Be incredibly productive in ways that we haven't thought about before. Yeah certainly Tom. Rogers we appreciate your view on that or everybody to check out that op ED. Which is a Newsweek online? As WELL OF COURSE. Tom Be well best to you and your family and thank you very much for the kind words at the start. Thank you thanks Brian. All right coming up. It'll be another big day for the markets tomorrow because we'll get the first jobless claims since most of the country went on lockdown the numbers the estimates range anywhere from a million to four plus million. We're going to break out your Thursday market playbook when we come back take right now to the corona virus briefing at the White House being grounded the war against the virus. I want to thank the American people for answering the call following guidelines and making the sacrifices required to overcome this terrible threat more aggressively we commit to social distancing so important social distancing such an important phrase and we do it right now the more lives we can save and the sooner we can eventually get people back to work back to school and back to normal and their large sections of our country probably can go back much sooner than other sections and we're obviously looking at that. Also people were asking. Is that an alternative. I say absolutely. It is an alternative. I have now approved major disaster declarations for New York California Washington Iowa Louisiana Texas and Florida. That has great significance as you know and legal significance. We're in a constant grouping and I can say this we have a large group of people that does nothing but communicate with the various officials including that we've been spending a Lotta of time with New York officials because that really is by far the hottest spot they've got A number of very tough weeks ahead of them The governor's doing a very good job. I spoke to the Governor Governor Cuomo last night and this morning and he mentioned that In his remarks that he's using the that we are using and I think he feels because he understands negotiation. Okay that is the White House Task Force Review Krona Virus. You could see the treasury secretary. Is there vice president pence? Dr Anthony Fauci headlines are made or of Minutia takes the podium. We will jump back into that press conference and of course bringing any headlines as they occur right now though. Let's do what we do here. And talk about the markets and try to get you set up. What's going on joining us now? Is Laurie Calvin head of use Equity Strategy? Rbc Capital Markets and Lisa Charlotte chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lori was Monday the bottom for the stock market. I we'll have to see that. I think there's a good chance that it probably wasn't what we know about. Bottoms is that they do take time. I think we're we're pricing what we're pricing and now in the market is consistent with recession pricing. On Friday we dip slightly below the twenty three hundred mark. The market was starting to tell us that something more onerous than ordinary recession was at hand and I think that possibility is still out there. We really don't know what's going to happen in terms of the path of this virus and I think that's really the most important thing for markets right now you think. I don't think we're ready to declare bottom either But I guess where you know. We might differ. Is You know we are pretty constructive on the amount of firepower that is being thrown At this problem if you think about what the Fed has done in under the guise of whatever it takes It is highly likely. We're going to see a fed balance sheet that is approaching six to eight trillion dollars before this is all over The US is probably the US. Government is probably going to spend some somewhere upwards of the two trillion dollars in the bill in the three bills that have that have thus far been proposed and I think when you take those two things and total. You're talking about a massive massive commitment. You know order magnitude of you know nine to ten percent of US GDP In aggregate And so while we recognize that that you know the the healthcare related part of the crisis is not over You know what we do want to remind people Is that never before in the history of our country. Ever including in in the financial crisis. have policymakers work. This fast. This bold this kind of size Relatives GDP You know to to mitigate and so I do think that there's reason to be constructive law you said. You do not think that Monday was necessarily the bottom. If not how much more do you think could be on the downside? You know it's interesting. A lot of sort of in the trading community a lot of people are talking about two thousand twenty one hundred that seems to be consensus that starting to emerge my gut says we could probably trade a little bit below that if you just look at how bad we got hit in the tech bubble About a forty nine percent drop peak to trough. That would take you down to around seventeen hundred. I'm so I think I don't see the market hold you know around this twenty? Three hundred level bat would be the next level that I'd frankly be worried about And you know I just want to echo something. Lisa said you know. We do think that the stimulus that's coming through is extraordinary. My urine target for the S. and P. Five hundred is twenty seven fifty But also tell you that my earnings estimates for next year for the SNP is lower than what we had in two thousand nineteen. And I think there's not enough conversation going on around the street right now. About how behavior is changing. And what's the longer-term fallout from this? We will have that Laurie. Lisa thank you both very much. Appreciate your insight be. Well do not forget. It's seven o'clock tonight. A townhall pandemic and the path forward a big time. Line four tonight. Seven o'clock Gary Cohn Mark Cuban Adena Friedman John Rogers and Scott Gottlieb Fulla was here. Thanks for watching we'll see tomorrow night on CNBC. Jim Cramer picking up the coverage on that money right. Now take him. What IS DECISION TECH BY FIDELITY? It's technology that can help you find stock based on what's trending or an investing goal. It's real time insights and information delivered in your own customized view of the market. It's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions and it's only from fidelity open an account today at fidelity dot com slash trading fidelity brokerage services. Llc MEMBER NYSE SIPC.
What Does It Take to Invest in Russia? ( w/ Harvey Sawikin )
"Harvey weekend weekend joins us today. He is the co founder and lead portfolio manager at firebird management which manages funds dedicated to investing in frontier emerging equities it was the first russian portfolio equity fund and has since expanded to include other countries in that region. Think kazahkstan in georgia where he has found stocks trading at massive discounts to intrinsic value emerging markets are often a blind spot for investors. Finding them requires risk. Geopolitical understanding discipline travel in throw in some good luck and timing as well. it's a specialized skill. we can learn a lot. From harvey's more than two decades of evaluating emerging and frontier market countries. Welcome harvey edgar. So let's start with your background. What drew you to investing in particular investing in russia in eastern europe while used to be an emanating lawyer. And i had i worked for five years. Who's very high powered firm in new york and I was sort of burned out of that. And i left a take some time off and i started to wanted to invest my savings to live off. Take some time off when it partners there who was a warren buffett. Fan said well if you want to invest in stocks You gotta read this book. And he gave me a engine. Graham's intelligent investor. So i read that and i said hey this seems pretty easy i could do this You know so. I i started going to Columbia business library to get these value line. You know like books to research stocks cause you know this was pre internet so you had to go and get books and while i was up there I ran into a college friend. Who had just come back from working in asia and early in frontier markets in asia. And he said he told me. Look if you wanna hear about value. I gotta tell you about the kind of things. Receding in emerging markets forget about six times earnings. How about two times earnings and forget about fifteen percent earnings growth quebec fifty So he definitely got my attention. We went to You know tom steiner from seinfeld of their columbia and over at lunch. He just mesmerized me with tales of merging markets frontier markets and one other insight that he had at that first lunch and i think it's informed the entire fiber experience was that he observed that most emerging market funds never actually seem to do very well like if you looked at templeton's track record. Who was the most famous mark. Mobius was most famous emerging markets investors time. He was not annualising Attractive rate and my my co-founder said you know there are guys in asia on trading desks who are compounding thirty forty percent a year on. Pa's and i was like well why is that and he said because they don't have all of these restrictions that templeton has with custody. And with you know all the things you need to have the bells and whistles of mutual fund he said the right way to do emerging markets is in some kind of a private vehicle Where you can get in when the insiders get it at bata and then when it gets listed on the new york stock exchange. That's when you take your profits you know and great so we so. In fact when we wrote our first fiber prospectus we had no model. We created it so there was only a one emerging market hedge fund. This is nineteen ninety-three at the time which was fun christmas which could debt. We were the first i will. I will make the claim that we were the first emerging market equity hedge fund. Now take us. That's your first trip to russia. This january nineteen ninety four. You went in the wintertime and you said you could smell the opportunity there. You are absolutely sure you were going to get rich especially with the russian privatization program. Yeah i mean people say to me. Sometimes you went to russia and you've invested there and at that time and wasn't weren't you afraid and you were taking such risk and unlike no you don't get it. I was sure. I couldn't wait to put money in there because it was so obvious i mean again. This story been told before by other people. Bill browder but you know we were looking at stocks that were valued at ninety nine percent discount to western comparable like the oil company that we investigate the first voucher option. We had a market cap of forty million dollars we knew that in the voucher privatization it would come out with about forty million dollar market cap and had the same amount of barrels of oil as mobile which was forty billion at the time theresa. Look this company doesn't have to be as good as mobile. It only needs to go from ninety nine percent worse to ninety five percent worse and will make five times money. Well in fact the company. Just go five times. I think at the peak company had gone up something like fifty times from that initial Voucher price so you know that was the opportunity on and we the problem was you know just sort of finding technical aspects of getting involved in how to get the money in which broker to us and how to and set up correctly from a tax point of view so there was some challenges in. I would last notes as you know. It wasn't a all luck. I mean we had some. We had a lot of luck. i'll never take. We didn't but a lot of the stocks that people thought were interesting at the beginning of the russian stock market. Never went anywhere you know like at the beginning. Everybody was interested in say goon department store. Because that's what people had heard of and people were like ignoring the oil companies and so we were least correct in identifying what sectors would be ones that had the long term potential and so we got into oil metals telecoms and some of those things have appreciated. You know hundred times. And what was the geopolitical situation. And you know yeltsin had just disbanded the parliament and started this mass privatization voucher program. So kind of what was it. Like jumping into it at that time right. I mean people the big story that the trigger of all this was the battle In russia in september of nineteen ninety. Three the fame or october ninety three to famous scene with yeltsin standing on the tank and he had disbanded parliament in order and and uh push through a new constitution annemasse privatization program So that was really the key. Trigger of this was the fact that they made a political decision to privatize wasn't back. Getting the maximum price free. Each company was about speed They felt that they had a window of opportunity to privatize economy. Before let's say the communist could get back into power and they had to push through is fast as possible. And that's why the around was designed the way it was not to extract maximum price now. I've seen privatization programs in other countries And they've been criticized over the years. But i think people misunderstand the political context that it really has to be done quickly on other countries which didn't have as a higher risk of let's say a reversion to communism like a estonia do a slower and more An an and extracted much higher value in their privatization programs but You know. I don't think russia was wrong to that way. Just it was the clinical context. It's easy in hindsight ceo. You know got ripped off but People would have to go back to nineteen ninety-three and see why it was done like that. You had three. Other co founders. When founding firebird manual one of them was dan cloud of who also is a a mentor. To your jeffrey bat. Did you learn from him. He obviously saw a lot of people making fortunes on emerging markets but there was a white space with overall emerging market funds. And you know he. He had treated very successfully in poland. Too yeah i think like said. Dan was person. I i mentioned who got me involved in sent had that phenomenal insight about doing a fun. That was like your. And and and letting the structure of the fund be determined by how to get the investment result he wants at rather than take whatever investment opportunities you could have based on a structure that you you felt compelled to do like a mutual fund on so i think that was an extraordinary observation that he made Also ian hague our our third co founder Was a soviet studies who still might partner today. And i was just on phone with a few minutes ago He was a soviet studies expert and so he understood very well sort of the political context what they were doing and through our long discussions. We i wouldn't say that we just leaped into it. And we spent a lot of time thinking about russia and thinking about the politics which i would say another insight that fiber and has had over the years was how important politics are in getting emerging markets right. And i see this all the time. I've seen it for twenty five years that people get so lost in the weeds. What what is the valuation of a company. What is the what is the pe. And they're missing the fact that you know coolest happening that will you know cause everything to crash on. I've seen it time and again. In emerging market funds especially jet global emerging market funds that are not specialists in any particular region are very frequently getting sort of hammered and caught flat-footed like with some sudden revolutions and like egypt which took so many funds down. so i think You know one of the insights that dan in and i had early on was we're going gonna let politics lead first macroeconomics following right close behind. Then look to see what stocks you could buy. Was their functioning market held liquid. Wasn't i think that's the right order to look at frontier market. On and over the years we've replicated the rush success. you know. Probably ten times. You know in romania. Kazahstan georgia estonia. And what these places all had in common was that the got the politics sorted out and by the way not always. The same doesn't always have to be a democracy could be a an autocracy like the way But you just have to look at. What are the exactly. How is this country. Being developed is consistent with capital markets development and gains. And you know. 'cause don we asked was Whereas let's say as john another dictatorship in central asia. We never touched it and we write about that. 'cause it's been phenomenal investment for us whereas azerbaijan. Never meet anybody any money. So i'd say that was set up. He insight that even to this day of this morning. We were talking about this russian hacking story and how significant incident as it can affect anything and you got to want to be an emerging markets investor. You know you've got to pay attention. No just ignore it while focusing on. What is your favorite. Stop at jeffrey bat. Talks about this wide Gap between the perception and the reality of emerging market when investing in it. Do you really try and identify that too and look for that too. I think that's very true. In frontier markets particularly which are not well understood the way iraq is now russia definitely was when we started in other countries that we came to and were being ignored by the world that we're not paying attention to reality happening there like georgia i think as markets mature evolve I would say that the perception and reality tend to enrich more so if you look at russia today i do. I do think there are misunderstandings. Crop up about one thing or another and you can see the markets move in a day for a day or two in the wrong direction based on a piece of news but the gap is not what was in one thousand nine hundred four. It's a much more mature market and we print you differently. I i mentioned that we have a big top down focus but in a market that's mature as russia. I would say the bottom up in the top down are much more synergistic unbalanced. you know. it's a little bit of both. And we are and our financial an hour investment research Becomes more traditional value oriented or fundamental orientation say as the market develops becomes whereas frontier market. You don't necessarily need the same kinds of things that you would expect more mature market. What type of data do you pay attention to when you are evaluating countries to invest in. There's course more data available in these more mature markets than frontier markets. Right well in the more developed markets. I mean you wanna you wanna see a country that has a fairly credible central bank And currency that is reasonably stable. A doesn't we do expect some Depreciation in these currencies on that you have to take that into account if you're buying let's russian bank You know that you're buying ruble earning organization and you might expect the ruble to devalue a bit over time key is to buy growth and those cases to by companies are going to grow faster and even in dollar terms you can bring home a really good return on it So you look at the currency. You look at the company's the country's balance sheet if the country runs current account deficits howard financed is somebody that's always going to the global markets for capital markets or. Is it through foreign direct investment. If you look at a country like georgia They run fairly large. Run fairly large current account. Deficits didn't bother us very much because of the way they were financing goes with foreign direct investment. that's stables i financing you look at other emerging markets with current accounts. It's like turkey where a large part of that was funded from the capital capital and portfolio Nesters that's a riskier. Play doesn't mean you won't do well. It just means you got to be careful because when the tide turns and people suddenly in. The market's close to Portfolio investors Runaway like what happens for example during coded me look during code the countries that that had the biggest problem for example turkey at really hurt because partially because the capital market. Suddenly were were not as interested in funding. Your current accounts sit whereas russia didn't have nearly as much problem when assessing risk when investing as you just described to you know. Have you had really any false starts before. I know you still can openly about mongolia. Or you know. I've been around for doing this for twenty six years and i would say that over that time. My partners have lost money in every possible way. You can lose money in in investing From an analytical mistakes are the company level at the country level at every level and You know so. I think that the most painful ones have been. I would say the macro over optimism about macro of the country. Ukraine is is a country that has always been next big thing in emerging markets and never seems tough. it's never seem to work out for portfolio investors. Something always goes wrong something political. It's usually political problem. And the inability for example to extract themselves from the grip of oligarchs And so we lost a lot of money and ukraine betting on the I on the orange revolution. That was the one that really was a huge disappointment back in before the crisis no way so i would say the biggest mistakes that cost the most money are a kind of a over optimistic assessment of the macro and the other problem. Is that if you re hard to get out if you go into frontier market with a lot of money and then it becomes obvious that scoring the wrong way. You're stuck you know you. Can't you're married to these stocks and you can't like turn around so i would say one of our biggest mistakes in past now is something extraordinarily focused on liquidity risks. You know you've got to can be tempting in emerging markets to take down positions in some ukrainian company or some frontier market Company imagine huge profits. You're gonna make but if you if you have a quantity profile that doesn't match the it doesn't match the redemption terms of your. Your open ended fund. A you could get really a big mismatch problem. So we had that experience in past and so now we've learned a also to make sure that we allen's quitting we don't use we don't short. We don't use derivatives. In fact. I've i've almost never in my life. Seen in emerging market fund succeed overtime using shorting or derivatives maybe some individual Prop traders do. But i've never seen a fun do it. So if you don't leverage at all your major risk would then be liquidity liquidity risk. And so those are the things that we've learned. We've learned to manage the years you know. How would you assess the current emerging market landscape. Today i read an f. T. article this morning. That said you know. Emerging markets have never been more popular there some countries with potential in your region. I know you mentioned ukraine but What are you keeping a close eye on. Today i'm ash bennington host of the rue vision daily briefing. Today's episode is sponsored by bit trust. Ira bitcoin is one of the best. 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I would say that you know they're gonna few false starts in emerging markets In the last few years on it seems like every time they start getting traction Some showstopper. Meko showstopper comes along a like this coded this year a couple of years ago. It was when the feds started to hike rates and the quickey on. So it's always tempting to say okay. This is it and then you find out. It's another false start. That said i do believe that. This is I think that the the dollar has begun a downtrend it. I think it actually started a couple of years ago. And then because of these covert and other macro vents. That got people back into dollars. It's slowed down delayed. But i do think the dollar has begun a sort of a down trend that collapsed for a while and is necessary to take some of the reliefs some of the pressure at created on the us economy and our export sectors after years and years of very strong currency. So these things have to happen. Periodically and and dollar strength and weakness. Probably the macro factor. That has the biggest impact on emerging markets on so for us. It's a huge headwind for the last few years since our fund is denominated in dollars and yet we're holding all these foreign currencies rubles in euros and so on but So i think that that the headwind is now become a tailwind. I don't know how to give a tailwind or how long it's gonna last but it right now. It's tailwind i mean are funded is up something. Like twenty percent since the beginning of november since biden was elected which one might have thought could be negative for russia. In fact we're a arrested fund is up twenty percent since biden's election but it's also if you notice is consistent with the sharp decline in the dollar against global currencies within our region. I would say that clearly. Russia is a very interesting value on it trades if you look at earnings twenty nineteen earnings twenty twenty s difficult because of the effects of code and the oil price going down if you look at twenty nineteen earnings and you. You assume that we'll get back to twenty nine nineteen earnings levels sometime in. Let's say second half twenty one or i have to twenty two. Which is what. I think is reasonable Stocks are trading at nearly undemanding multiples Maybe the resource companies may be five five or six p. and dividend yields and high single digits. Which is usually pretty pretty good entry point for russia and i would say that you might have to be a little patient of you can hold for two years. I'd say russian oils russian medals and some of the blue-chip blue chips like spare bank in moscow exchange are extremely attractive. Ity these levels Outside of russia you know there are countries that have kind of fallen off the radar screen. A little bit. Because of lack of liquidity in emerging market funds and specially frontier market funds in the last couple of years. So the country georgia. This is a sort of ronald reagan's dream come true. Guess was a libertarian. Government with low taxes no tax no corporate taxes Flat taxes. All the kinds of things. You would wanna see In from a economic macroeconomic point of view on and there are two or three extremely good stocks that are listed in london including georgia capital. Which is a holding company for the country bank of georgia which are two that we own Trading at extremely low valuations relative to Know historically a georgia capital and bank of georgia are owned by heavily owned by frontier market funds shut huge outflows on the last couple of years during tobin even before and now we see that frontier funds are starting to get inflows again. I should be very beneficial to these. Companies are listed in london so just one example and there are other countries. We've invested in that off the radar screen. A little bit caused on is another one that was popular frontier market funds and got hit by outflows. Seems now it's coming. Back is your investment strategy changing. Now that we're in a period of extended zero interest rate policy you know as we mentioned massive currency devaluations as central banks print unprecedented amounts of money. How will this impact investing in the next economy of a country that emerges out of disarray for example. Well as i said before. I think that the The dollar the downtrend in the dollar which is partially a result of the zero interest rate policy in the lack of any interest rates to franchise on. us bonds On on on. I think that You know we're we're just positioned to benefit in that period. All across the board. Beyond that i would say that The if you believe that we're in a low deflationary environment that can go on for awhile. Which i believe is probably the case and kind of low rates will be here for a while on you know obviously a growth stocks companies that can grow even in a sort of disinflationary environment become more attractive so what fiber has done is to reposition the portfolio over the last couple of years to be sort of more oriented towards growth stocks in our region and a bit less towards cyclicals. You can't you can't go out. Cicles entirely they make up a big part of our markets. The oil stocks the medals but You know we've definitely moved more toward a anx- tech including fintech And fortunately there are lot. They're getting a lot more listings. In our region of those kind of companies for example our number one position has become this company index. Which is the google uber of russia. On we've been investing that for few years That was part of our shifts to growth There's another company we own call dot t. s The amdex trades in new york to trades in london. Tci is the clinton player in russia. that's another one that we kind of attitudes and there are others that we think have growth potential mosca stock exchange. Aeroflot's the russian airline. So i would say that that's kind of how we have repositioned for this kind of a macro environment. We seem to be you said that. E t s have proven to be in a poor way to invest in emerging markets. Why might they not be as suitable. The problem with the with the etf is that emerging markets very often the largest market cap companies are not value creative companies They're very often. They tend to be stayed enterprises. On and in fact. I'm not against state owned enterprise. We own aeroflot's and Sner bank which are both Russian state owned but those are companies. That are really run like private more like private companies for the shareholders. But you also have a lot of companies emerging markets That are not that kind of instruments foreign policy. They're not really a shirt minority. Shareholders interests are somewhere down maybe fourth or fifth priority for the management. And you can tell you know the way they present on talk to them if you buy the each yes you so As an example you know we were. We've been investors hand x t c s for years several years. Now and now they're being added to the index as they've grown in market cats are grown. So you were in the etf. You missed that hall. You miss that whole growth before it got to be big enough to be in the index while you were sitting in gazprom which has gone from being the largest company in the index. And it's going down because it hasn't delivered for shareholders much over the years. And i say the second thing is that if you own an etf you're gonna be your job to sell as to be your judge figure out when things have gone to frothy to sell and if you believe that you're a really good market timer and no one to do that you could. I guess you could do it but You know in a fund like ours. It's our job to figure out when pullback back to shore. And i would say that over the years although we never did it perfectly. And i'm always hoping to be better given up on achieving perfection. Even though i never will but just wanted to be better So we never did it perfectly but we did preserve capital several times when it was necessary. And if you look at our long term track record we've outperformed. Our markets are benchmarks by thousands of percent. And some of it is stock. Picking some of it was just doing something to protect capital in the three or four times. It's been necessary in the last twenty six years. I'm sure it will be necessary again at least once or twice in my remaining career perfectly next time. And you describe your dream. Investor like what type of investor really allocates funds to emerging markets. What is a typical investor in your fun. That's an interesting question. Hairless changed a lot. Because again in this business long enough to see it come full circle completely And it's when. I started back in the nineties you know. Your typical investor was a high net worth individual or family office. Somebody forward looking And contrarian somebody who you know. Enter interested in in knowing who the managers were not so much whether it was a big name templeton but actually getting to know who is actually going to be managing your money at reading letters talking to us in understanding. That's the way it was in the ninety s so individuals and then some institutional investors Then we went through this period of massive growth fund funds and institutional interest in in hedge funds even emerging market hedge funds and that boom lasted about six or seven years. And now it's really back to the way it was in the nineties were. Most of our investors are individuals. Some family office says usually a run by very forward thinking person with a lot of investment experience themselves who reads are letters who kind of talks to us and tries to understand what our strategy is. Why we're delivering. Something may be better than and just an index fund or needs you have an institutional Not not as touche's are going to be more into the ats because era They're really a sort of achieving asset allocation targets That fit into an overall portfolio. And they're not maybe s concerned about any particular fund but rather getting the asset mix right and a low cost basis. So they're right now have been most typical investor in a fund lake ours. You know with information. readily available with access to the internet and so many more people involved in markets. All over the world. are you seeing. These markets tend to be more efficient. Maybe than they used to be. I think the more mature markets. That i was talking about like the way russian today. It's a lot more efficient than it used to be. But i still see massive inefficiencies crop up not infrequently on suddenly a stock will be offered as an example You know we. We participated in placement last week for a cut. This company this fintech company that i mentioned kind of very clear reasons why it was being done at very attractive valuation on and it was not massively oversubscribed. I think people didn't go through. I don't think they went through the same sort of analytical process. We did figure out that particular offering wild coming at that time. So i do see on which which related to the particular need of the owner of the controlling shareholder why he chose that moment to do it and not very Rich valuation so. Yeah i see. I see them crop up of course in frontier markets the the inefficiencies are much larger. I mean you can see things trading. A we own a company in kazakhstan. 'cause a telecom only trades locally has very little doesn't have a foreign eighty are anything and that one is valuation. Makes no sense at all. I mean it's trading at two times utah and it has a listed subsidiary in london which has a market cap which is equal to two thirds of market cap of the kazakh listed telecom. With which would mean that. A all. The other assets have earnings are hardly being valued at much at all so this is a kind of weird undervaluation that you see in frontier markets where there isn't a lot of foreign. There's no foreign l'estang it's harder to to access on so they do crop up not as much as they as they used to. I guess are you seeing a younger generation invest in russia and other countries in eastern europe. Today running some of these companies that you might invest in. Is there like a silicon valley rising there that you've identified. There's been a complete demographic change over and management of companies since we started. I mean when i started you know i would go to visit companies and it was like a red director was the same guy who was running. It went hundred soviet union and often they would have you know marxist memorabilia and you know they the way they talked showed that they didn't really understand what a public company even was on now. They're all western trained almost all western trained or educated or at least if if the russian educated you know all according to western principles of capital allocation profitability margins. So it's a completely different world. I used to say that. In the old days. If i if i met with ten russian companies over few days it would be one or two pretty good meetings one or two that were like weird and they were the rest of them. Were just mediocre. Now you know what. I go to meet with russian companies that come away wanting to invest in probably seven out of ten and there's usually one that's mediocre in one. That's still weird but so that's on the on management side. It's been huge. Change over in terms of the investor side. Yes i think that. Active active foreign investors in emerging markets are becoming a rarer and rare breed like like sort of dodo bird. And i feel like sometimes. I feel i've been i've been called a dinosaur on twitter and I i i accept that. I hope i'm just a cool. Dinosaur like velociraptor something. But i accept that i'm vanishing breed of active of foreign investor in emerging markets. But that isn't to say that there are active investors. There are the the locals. I mean if you look at the russian stock market. It's increasingly dominated by russian retail investors and by young fund managers managing local money And you know that's the number of accounts that retail counts of something like an eightfold over the last couple of years in russia and that changes everything the market more efficient. Because there's more people to find the second and third years it also makes the market more stable. In fact i saw this year during koga when You know the foreigners as always were selling on mass at the end of march and running for the exits and the russian market was much more resilient that it would have been in the old days because the local investors were buying from the foreigners who were puking stocks on so the decline was shallower and shorter than it would have been in the altay. So yeah i do see not just in russia. Same in romania And the baltics. I see a lot more retail participation stock markets tonight. I think it's a great thing. Yeah i mean. I think across the global media silver lining of. Kobe has been this this. The spark in financial literacy people wanting to really take control of their own finances in money a little bit more with this overall trend. We're seeing in retail investors around the world. You'd think central starring. Like i think the us market there was a time in the ninety s when the us market was becoming much. Us stock market was paying much more efficient. Because remember when. I started buying stocks in the early nineties. I thought it was very inefficient. Like i couldn't believe. How many obvious undervaluations i've found and i knew i was a beginner. And using these of benjamin graham and it was easy and then i noticed that by the mid nineties later ninety s became much harder. And i think that had to do with the introduction of e trade in all these retail of participation in stock market making it more efficient and then it got out of hand so then you have the bubble of ninety nine two thousand and nasdaq crash So and then for a while The retail investors were not a big presence again. Now they're back right with robin hood and everybody else and And they're very active all these young traders. And there's a part of me that thinks we may be experiencing the late nineties sort of cycle all in all in one year where they went from getting robinhood accounts to buying ev specs at you know with us for With twenty five billion dollar market valuations zero revenues All in one year So i i you know having been around a long time i would. It does remind me a little bit of the late nineties but just much more compressed And i i remember that ended. So i would be quite nervous about. You know what's happening in these in these Sort of check. Stop bubble bubble type stocks Just week after week. We're seeing new record highs in the last two months in the us market At the same time. I've been bullish on. Us stocks since two thousand nine. I thought in two thousand nine two thousand ten thought the us stock market was one of the greatest investment opportunities. i'd ever seen the equal of emerging markets because it was the first time in decades that the earnings yield on the us stock market was actually higher than the bond deal. Not just hire with. Triple the bond you and which was you had to go back to the nineteen fifties for the previous time that the earnings yield on stock market was higher than the bond yield the ten year treasury. You right now. So the markets had this incredible decade in. Everybody's done well guess what. The earnings yield is still higher than the than the treasury yields. So for me. You know people talk about all these ratios cape and so on for me. I live in the real world every day. I wake up. I have to decide how to allocate money And so does everybody else and you have a choice. You have a choice between cash on real estate stocks it coin whatever else and for me. Us stocks Besides my own funds. Which i know very well and i feel confidence about. Us stocks is the place to be. That isn't to say. I would put my whole portfolio into ev specs And you know. I feel a little bit too old for that and i'm not looking to shoot the lights out. I'm just looking to grow my capital at a reasonable rate. But i'm still buying stocks on down. Days i i tried to buy by index funds by the snp updates. I try to buy the s. And until until the bond yields go back up again which they will ensure at some point in future. I don't know what else you know doing. Some other things venture venture capital some direct investing. A lot of real estate but you must stocks to me. Still the only game in town. I'm ash bennington host of the real vision daily briefing. Today's episode is sponsored by wind dot com online ordering and delivery. 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The convenience of buying wine online wine dot com can bring the world of wine straight to your door go to wine dot com slash real to get thirty dollars off your first order terms. Apar- heard you talk about Prior prior investments in companies like you you know you own gold coins Not a lot you know. I bought some. I bought some. There was an anomaly in the gold market. Which was that gold coins of numismatic value. We're not trading at a. They were trading almost zero premium to the which was something that hadn't happened in decades. And so just. I bought some gold coins just to just to have him and i was a coin collector as a kid. So you know for me to buy some and not just gold coins i bought some other news medically interesting coins the bitcoin in cryptocurrency any receipt. Record no i understand the appeal of bitcoin guys who turns up by no zada on. It's like gold. You know it's it's as long as everybody agrees the to understand bitcoin. You have to understand that it's not about whether you can use it to buy something on you may be you can most likely can't it's it's like gold. It's if everybody agrees it's a store of value. Then it's a stored value. Just like an andy warhol painting is or an ounce of gold or a classic ferrari What it should be worth. Well it'll be worth whatever people say it's worth now. I haven't done. Bitcoin myself. Because frankly i would have to have so much bitcoin to make to move the needle for me out have to have so much bitcoin that is just. I can't imagine myself doing. I feel the same way about gold but for somebody who makes it. A doesn't have a very significant worth wants to make it a meaningful part of their portfolio. I say you know okay. Don't a but like with gold. You know you can't you can't be shaken out like That's why i am. Try to understand it and be sympathetic to us. I was also put off a little bit by things. Like hard forks in either was never a hard for can gold. I'm aware of so. I was looking at coin. And then they hartford said okay. This is too complicated for me. And i don't you know supposedly that was a one time thing but then it happened again and then somebody claimed that hart was wrong and she too complicated for me is cryptocurrency catching on in russia in eastern european countries. You you hear them talking about it. They're yeah i mean. It does tend to country not so much in russia but in countries where they don't have confidence in currency I think in venezuela. It's become a big thing on in certain african countries and You know that could really be another major source of demand. Bitcoin in a way that gold couldn't be like us. You can actually move around easily. And as long as there isn't a big scandal. Some local depository disappears. I wouldn't say so much. In russia though because russia has currency that has after all these many years established a lot of credibility and the central bank has lot of credibility. So i think but people are always you know the russians left gamble. Like that's a thing you re dostoevsky the gambler. You'll see russians left to gamble and anything that is exciting and fun. You're gonna find russians doing sure. There are plenty of crypto holders in russia yet seems like crypto currency could be more of a benefit to some of these frontier markets. But i love to also as we wrap just the last question here. Can you talk about the value of travel. How important is it to get to know the country on a personal level before investing in it you know. In russia in some of these other eastern european countries to you in a frontier market it's essential. I would not invest in a frontier market Unless i visited myself and got to know the feel of it met with people in their offices see how they relate to each other and spend some time there the way we did. In russia the way we did in romania and the baltics i think as countries mature as countries mature. I think it becomes a little less critical. Like i think you could invest in russia today without ever setting foot in moscow. You can meet russian companies in london. You can meet him in new york now. I've had more company meetings with russian and eastern european companies. This year that i've ever had any year before all from the comfort of my laptop and so I think you can do it. But i think frontier market requires some time to get the feeling the place in the culture and understand what people are like and get a sense of it but And i do miss it. Like even though i feel like i. I don't need to go to russia right now. To do my work. I can do it on zoom and i can do it. You know read research. But i miss you know i love traveling and if i ever and it's a lot of fun in new york late nobody knows who i am like nobody but when i go to russia unlike addict shot you know. Vip and everyone wants to take me out. Everybody wants to you know. They'll they'll kind of make sure everybody wants to be with me. And so it's exciting and fun and i love the country. I love the people and not just rush. I mean i love georgia's the most one of the most fun places. I've ever visited politics beautiful. I would recommend any of these countries for tourism especially georgia has each's ski resorts on wine and wine country all in one country. Everyone speaks english. And everyone's super friendly. And soon as we can all travel again to would be one of my top recommending. Anyone asked me where to go in the region. I'd say what moscow you've gotta see moscow. Incinerators it. After that i would say to will harvey yankee sound much for the time. This was a fascinating conversation. We really appreciate my pleasure.
When a Nation Reaches the Point of No Return
"Broadcasting from the investor, our studios and all around the world. You're listening to the stands berry investor, our. Tune in each Thursday on itunes, Google play everywhere. You find podcasts for the latest episodes of the stands Berry investor our sign up for the free show archive at investor, our dot Com. Here's your host Dan Ferris. Hello and welcome to the stands Berry. Investor, our I'm your host Dan, Ferris. I'm also the editor of extreme value published by stands. Berry Research. Today we'll talk with Peter Fam-. Theater has a different way of looking at the world. We'll start by examining the meaning behind one of the funniest and best sentences. I've read all year, and then Peter Shares ideas about the Omega point explain that. And Mathematics and financial markets history of currencies, and what kind of portfolio he's holding today. This week in the mail bag. We'll talk about trailing stops. Cullen, Roach who we interviewed last week. Bank stocks and commodities lots of good stuff. In my opening rant this week, I'll talk about a day. I'll never forget August thirty, one, thousand, nine, hundred, ninety eight. Plus I've found it the motto for Twenty Twenty, a crazy year, F-, that and more right now on the stands berry investor our. The motto for Twenty Twenty is in. I found it. I found it in an article on. Actually NPR. Dot, org of all places I never wind up on that website and yet here I am and they linked to a Wall Street Journal article in the same topic, the motto for Twenty. Twenty has been established by. The proprietors of a theme park in Japan. The Fuji Q highland. Amusement Park near Tokyo. They have. NPR Calls Unorthodox request for their roller coaster riders. They've asked them not to scream while they ride. This roller coaster and you know in the Wall Street Journal version of the article. People were complaining. They're like. How can you ride a roller coaster without screaming? And of course, the reason is they don't want you to spread the corona virus. They don't want a little droplets of corona virus getting out from behind your mask that you're required to wear in public and getting on other writers or people below or whatever so you're not allowed to scream. And there's a video. There's a crazy video I hope this is not offensive. I mean in the in the most I. Kid because I love. Okay, it's to kind of straight laced looking Japanese businessmen who worked for this? Roller Coaster Company. And the whole videos four minutes long. It's just the two of them riding the roller coaster to prove that you could ride a roller coaster without screaming. And at the very end of it. It's in Japanese on the screen, but it says. Please scream inside your heart. And that's it. That's the motto for Twenty Twenty, isn't it? Please scream inside your heart. If you're stuck in your house and you're not allowed to go to work, please scream inside your heart. If you can't pay your bills because you're not allowed to go to work, please scream inside your heart, and just you can fill it in with anything that's happened in two thousand twenty. You know if your city is under siege for six straight weeks at the hands of an organized armed mob. Do you. Hear me, Portland Oregon. And the radical political leaders are practically egging them on. Please scream inside your heart. If you defend your home against one of these mobs on your property with weapons, you legally purchased. An armed angry mob breaks through the gate and you're gated community and the local district attorney files charges against you and not them. Stay with me. Please scream inside your heart. I'm sure you can fill this in with with your own list of crazy twenty twenty stuff. But that is what you must do. Please scream inside your heart. What an insane year, and I just wanted to share another like insane news item that kind of. It captures this moment as well as anything and it's actually a bloomberg headline. And the headline says it all. This was from couple of days ago July thirteenth. Headline is. Ten Thousand Day traders on our are buying Tesla shares. Ten Thousand Day traders our. I mean. Does this sound familiar to anybody as I'll tell you in a minute? I nine hundred and ninety eight all over again and last time we talked. I don't know if you remember I did. I mentioned Tesla and I thought it was crazy and it was like thirteen hundred dollars well it since been as high as seventeen, hundred and ninety four dollars ninety nine cents. Seventeen almost eighteen hundred dollars. Gold is eighteen hundred dollars it out. There's something a little bit crazy about the two of those things happening right around the same time you know. So, I couldn't help myself I went on twitter and Elon Musk responded to this news. Wow, you're just somebody. PUT UP THE TESLA share price and musk responded well. And, so I responded to him and I said something like you know so, what do you think they're? Sub Two hundred dollars within the next year because look. Tesla's market cap is now around two hundred and seventy-six billion dollars, and last time I I made a slight mistake I said the Toyota Motors. Market Cap was one hundred and thirty billion. It's actually the the share. Price is kind of pushing towards one thirty. It's in the mid one twenties, but the market cap I misspoke. The market cap is almost one hundred eighty billions, one, seventy, nine or something. So I think this is insane. Tesla is a market cap has a market cap. It's like. Bigger than BMW, GM, Honda and Fiat Chrysler combined combined. And you know they've they've made less cars in the recent quarter than they did a year ago I went over some of the stuff where everybody, but it's insane. We're living in an insane moment and all you can do about it is what say it with me? Scream inside your heart, so i WanNa talk about nine thousand, nine, hundred, a little bit I, told stands very readers, little something are digest I'll just the stands very digest is just for stands berry subscribers, but I'll share a little bit of it. I can't share you know the whole thing, but I wanNA share a little bit of the story until recently because I remember it so vividly. It was August thirty first nineteen ninety eight. And Porter stands variance Steve Sugar rudini poured. Steve worked up the stairs for me and I worked. You know I think they were in the third floor was on the second floor or something like that and I mean this was one thousand, nine, hundred, Eighty, eight I had my own ideas about things I wanted to invest in, and I was mostly into like mining stocks. Golden things. But I didn't know a whole lot. These guys you know they studied economics and finance and and Steve It worked for Hedge Fund and stuff. They knew a lot more than me that back then. So I'd go up there and I throw a few ideas with them. In every day we'd go and have lunch of the straight. August, thirty, first, nineteen, Ninety, eight I remember. We were standing at the corner of Saint. Paul and Preston in Baltimore Getting Ready to cross the street. And the market was in turmoil at that moment. The S. and P.. Five hundred was in turmoil. I think the index was thirteen percent off its July seventeen peak and that day that day. It fell like seven percent just that day, and that day just wiped out its year to date gain. and. Of course, the most famous thing that was happening then it was kind of an emerging markets collapsed, and a few other things were happening, but the most famous thing that happened that day was that the the collapse of the Hedge Fund? Long term capital management was hitting the news. Right and remember long term capital right? There were these genius guys. Two of them won Nobel Prizes, and you know they were. They had been featured in books and stuff and they were just. Just just well, known Wall Street Genius Tight Right, and they had leveraged this fun. Like as much as thirty two warn various times, and they use mathematical models. They had like a hundred different trading strategies. They had as many as seventy six hundred different positions right just modern insanity, modern financial insanity, and yet as complex and crazy is a stupid thing. was they insisted that other fancy math and degrees, and whatever else meant that they were taking little, if any risk, right? So. Whatever I think that's insane. Anybody who listened to that and didn't walk away crazy. The funded great. They made like forty percent a year for a couple of years. And? Then the dookie hit the fan and the emerging markets collapse in the summer of Nineteen, ninety eight hit them hard. They had started out doing these treasury bond arbitrage type positions, and then he got into all this other stuff equities and Russian debt, and all this stuff and there was a there was I looked for it I could not find it. There was a famous exchange that was I. don't even know if it was real or if the journalist made it up, but he said something like. Could you imagine like the Lt the long term capital management trader on the phone with his broker, talking about these Russian bonds. Get on the phone brokers said. Hey, what's going on? The Guy, said well your bid at your bid at seventy. So wow what happened. He said I don't know but your bid sixty. What's going on, is it I don't know but your bid at fifty and forty I mean it was just collapsing before their very eyes. And you know one hundred is par and anything below ninety means. Something's going on, so you know it's just a funny funny kind of a moment. The thing blew up. The market was tanking I'm standing there on the corner and I swear to you Steve Sugar and said the feds going to bail him out, and this is a great buying moment, and it was because the market just melted straight up from there, and it just really took off like a rocket ship all the way through to. March two thousand. And and Steve called it. He was right. He had a great feel for what was happening and I'll just never forget. Stand on. That corner was one of those things like. Where were you on nine eleven kind of a thing for me, it was. And I remember that was like the first time I was like really really impressed with these guys with Steve Porter. Day. At the point that I was trying to make recently when I wrote. This stuff in the stands digest last week was. You know people including myself are looking around, and they're looking for analogs right so I'm telling you. Hey, study the period from Nineteen, twenty nine to nineteen forty five. I'm not predicting another great depression, but I think there's something there study. Okay, and I think maybe this could be nineteen ninety eight moment, maybe in March in our big covid one month bear market was the equivalent of the long term capital management, emerging markets crisis of nineteen, Ninety Eight, and maybe Steve's melt up is coming next because he's been predicting that same thing another Melta and I wouldn't doubt it I wouldn't doubt it one bit. We're seeing unprecedented levels absolutely unprecedented off the charts levels of. Stimulus. Multi trillion dollars from the government. You know multi trillion dollars. The Fed has a seven billion dollar balance sheet now never happened. None of this has ever happened this degree before, and it was that way by the way you know in the nineteen thirties. That was all unprecedented to. And you could say the same thing about the financial crisis. They did anything like that. You know before that moment so. Who knows what the outcome will be I? Just think it's going to be a wide range about comes, and that's why I keep talking about. Certainly buy stocks, because part of that range of outcomes is everything recovers, and businesses do well, and you make money owning equities, but also hold plenty of cash. Gold and a little bit of Bitcoin. Because it's got multi hundred bagger upside, you can take one percent position, and potentially w net worth or something, so you know your liquid assets at least. So. That's what I told him I mean. There's a little more to it than that. I got into the whole idea of like. How valuable is it? To study history at all when we're talking about events that have never happened before. Out a basically, look at it. The last something kind of similar never happened before and saying yeah. Yeah, maybe something like that. But it's really hard. It's really hard, so I think studying history is a good idea and who can fault anyone for saying. Hey, it's like ninety, twenty, nine, one, thousand, nine, hundred, eighty eight, but I think the real point for me is be ready for anything. Man. Be ready for anything prepare. Don't predict you. Try to predict and you get it wrong. Ouch, what I'm saying! Is You try to predict? The stock market is gonNA. Go straight up for another five years, and you get that wrong and cash gold turn out to be the things to of owned, and you didn't own enough of them. You know ouch. That's what I'm talking about and vice versa. So in other words, don't when I say vice versa you don't sell out one hundred percent to cash or you don't own only cash gold. I don't think here. You've got to be truly diversified and I included in my in my digest included a little bit of this Cormac. McCarthy novel called the road. I mentioned this before post apocalyptic. Novel it looks like it was after some huge nuclear holocaust or something. All the cities are burned in the planet is covered with Ash, and there's hardly anybody alive, and there's like no food or anything it's it's hellish. It's a hell scape, a post apocalyptic hell scape. And there's a moment they come upon this old man who's just like he's not doing well, and and they share some food with or something, and they have a little conversation with this guy. The main characters are guy and his son, the man and the boy. They never tell you their names. And the man says to the old man. He says you knew it was coming and the old Manson's. Yeah, this or something like it. I always believed it. And the man says did you get? Did you try to get ready for it? And the old man says no, what would you do? In, the Manson I duNNo. And the old man says people were always getting ready for tomorrow. I didn't believe in that tomorrow wasn't getting ready for them. It didn't even know they were there. That, really caught my attention. I immediately like put a post. It note on that page because I knew I'd be telling you about it. At some point. Tomorrow wasn't getting ready for them. It didn't even know they were there. That's why you diversify right now. That's why you had the truly diversified portfolio. Your cash and stocks are still inside the financial system. And your golden, your bitcoin or outside the financial, system. and. I think there's probably a place for land in there, too. But that exchange kind of you know captured the sense of uncertainty and fear that a lot of people have right now at which I think is justified and manifest itself in this appreciation that a wide range of outcomes. We have the potential right now for a wide range of outcomes in the next five or ten years, and you better be ready for it. All. Right. That's it. That's what I had to say about that. Let's go ahead right now and talk with Peter Fam-. When my friend and colleague Steve SUGARUT TALKS I listen Steve predicted the rise of gold in two thousand three, the top of the DOT com bubble in two thousand, and he even called the bottom of the great recession in two thousand nine Steve is once again pounding the table on a new prediction. He believes that a mania will hit the US stock market and take most investors by surprise. He said that thousands if not millions of dollars will change hands. Hands as a result of the anomalies, he found in the market. If you want to find out how you can profit from Steve's prediction, he has laid everything out in a video that just went viral. Go to www dot investor, our true wealth dot com to watch the video and find out how you can profit in this roller coaster of a market I watched it, and what Steve found is astonishing again. That's www dot investor, our true wealth dot com. Today's guest Peter Fan. He is the founder and chairman of Phoenix capital, a bespoke advisory firm, offering analysis, strategies and insights on investment and finance the firm's Forte's in emerging markets recently partnering with Snp Dow Jones to construct the Socialist Republic of Vietnam's V N Thirty Equal Weight Index. His thoughts and opinions on finance have been featured in a variety of publications. The Motley fool seeking Alpha C. N. Money Bloomberg financial. Times Reuters Dow Jones the wall. Street Journal in a whole bunch more. His podcast series has been featured on itunes international in the new and noteworthy section. This series features numerous financial thought leaders including Jim Rogers Mark mobius James Altered Jack Swagger Rick Rule. Mark father with Halle cats a Nelson Aaron. Porter stands Berry Frank Curzio and Richard Maye Berry. They discuss market insights through casual thought provoking and at times, radical discussions Peter has acquired more than eighteen years of experience in capital markets and fund management. He is a force to be reckoned with Peter. FEM welcome to the program. Danae in here and we're going to expose the Matrix for what it is all right. That sounds good. But I'm telling you I have to begin. You send me a bunch of articles and you got a lot of ideas. A lot of them are very abstract. I'm not sure I understood at all, but then the thing I love about Peter's that every now and then you drop one of these bombs. And I hope you'll just indulge me for a moment just to deal with this one specific little bomb you dropped which I thought was one of the best sentences I've read all year and I read a lot of stuff. You said Moore's law of mad science every eighteen months. The minimum IQ q necessary to destroy the world drops by one point. I cracked up. It's hard to make me laugh by reading something, but I laughed out loud at that. And you know you did it in in a discussion about financial alchemy. Technocrats taken over the market and stuff but. Where did you get that that something? You read I've never heard that before. Did you make that up? It's an amalgamation of ideas then right? It's about Moore's law which we're all familiar with. It's just about basically what we're seeing in the news. The world over and the decisions that are being made that ultimately lack the wisdom of the world to assess the haves, and the have nots, so I felt like that line in one of my articles was just so. Relevance to everything that you're witnessing now, so in a nutshell that's that's the key thing. We're seeing experts that are providing a lot of information, but no one especially when you take into account things like co bid. No one is really thinking about the big picture and therefore decisions based on experts where I. Knowledge doesn't allow them to address the issue or identify cure for what we have forces them to make decisions that are basically extremely low. I Q. I see that's that's good. That's good, so let's start here. You have an idea about the life cycle of nations, which in and of itself is important to recognize, and you say that you know nations eventually reach something called the Omega Point in their history and as i. take what I read articles. It sounds like the Omega point is not a good moment to reach what? What does the mega point? Is that simply? When a nation falls apart, tell me about the mega point. The Omega point could be understood as like the ultimate form of centralization before the collapse of the country, so in in modern day context. What are we seeing? We are seeing basically countries like the united. States really pushed the limits of their debt ratios relative to GDP. And as a result, what many people don't understand his? It's nice that the bond market is going up in. People should be considering buying that relative to yields. What's more important, is that this is what I call on digits for the average individual, the average American, which now must bear the burden of debt, but ultimately what that does is, it allows the states to have that much more authority so when we talk about you know reaching the Omega point through the centralization of the state. It's happening in financial markets that people are ultimately not like the average. Average individual is not cognizant of is through the expansion of debt and the people that have to be responsible for servicing the dads are ultimately the taxpayers and the citizens of the country. So that's what you're seeing and then post once basically a country defaults than that leads to ultimately the possibility of creating a new country and this I think should be core curriculum as opposed to just learning history. Okay, so this is interesting because. I agree with you. Government seem to evolve. They just grow. We talked with John Dos Oh. We talked with Ron Paul and we all agree. Governments just grow Thomas. Jefferson knew it government. The nature of government is just grow over time, and over time they become more and more and more involved in everyone's life more centralized, and it sounds to me like you're saying we. We hit a point of centralization where they're involved in in way too many financial transactions and way too many aspects of daily civic life. And it starts to get dicey, and it starts to endanger the health of the country and the longevity. You're saying the longevity at that point is in question. Are you not that that's what I'm taking from us? Yes, right so the longevity of the United States of America as we have known it for one example maybe in question. It could be because typically the average empire has a life span of. Let's say two hundred fifty years. You're actually only like a decade away from that. If I'm not mistaken as far as the United States is concerned, remember I'm using the word empire. What does that imply about all other countries that have not reach the status of of the United States with basically a world reserve currency you know as a as a power in. In the global economy, this effectively implies Dan that countries that are vastly smaller than the United States as seeing through their credit rating percents a massive risk to potentially collapse or default, because some of them have actually centralize much faster, or some of them have been founded under the premise of centralization and sold through the ideas, socialism and I just wanted to share one quick thing is that many people don't stay become so disgruntled with the? States they are. told about a potential utopia that could exist, and that's kind of like what you're seeing. The World Vogue, or at least within the Western world, people are looking for change in some capacity. They don't know what to do, but they want things to change become better. That's the TOPI- that they're being presented with will what happens Dan typically is let's say a empire country were to collapse due to massive centralization or basically achieving some or debt defaults as far as a country is concerned, and these utopians achieved objective that they wanted to achieve. Will what we can see. Is that countries that attempted to create a new? New Utopia might achieve that Johnson, temporary period of time literally when a country astounded than basically the assets such as the land is stated back from the oppressive regime that was there previously, and then ultimately explored in terms of how that could be redistributed, so when I study socialist countries. You see that they hold a Gini Coefficient which is basically indication of economic parity amongst all citizens. It's very good or a period of time, but then as the state becomes more centralized as driven by the central planners, which I call technocrats Ultimately you start to see divide again, so it doesn't really matter is what? What I'm saying to you if you create new countries under Utopian ideas than what will happen, is a wealth of by will be created, hence why this is so vital for the audience to understand like ultimately the duration of countries, the beginning, and the end all predicated around an Omega Point and understanding the idea of Utopian perfection is unobtainable, because humans are involved. Okay, so it sounds like Peter overdoing. There is acknowledging the simple fact that not every country starts out as a what you might call a Free Democratic Republic right they they could start in the late. You know what we would consider the. The later phases of that republic, and then they'll probably accelerate their their timeline right. They'll have a shorter history. Probably I. Guess is what we're saying. They're correct. Yes, when you look at emerging markets, and you can start to see that that very few countries are actually able to become two hundred years old. The Nation of people right might be thousands of years like China actually. China as a country is very young, and that's what one of the advantages of studying these emerging markets. That's why Asia's young, but it's nation. A people are thousands of years old so that that's just the context I understand this. So. Let's before we move onto more of your ideas about how the world works. Can you tell me like you know your? Your firm's Forte's emerging markets as we said in the introduction. Can, you outlined for me in a in a very concrete way. Like what is your portfolio? If you if we look at what you're doing, then what you're saying will mean more to us. I think absolutely so let me share to you that everything has changed this year, and as a result I'll just share to you what? I had in two thousand nineteen and I'll share to you. What I have now is two thousand twenty twentieth concern because the whole world changed in twenty. Twenty, twenty, two, thousand, nineteen I owned a lot of basically like music royalties, things like that and other like you know licensing products in which I could collect royalties based on that, and then I owned a lot of precious metals at that time, and then I invested in some private equity investments going ultimately all of these things are sort of slightly as far as private equity investments are concerned, slightly higher up on the risk for so then two thousand and nineteen when equities. Equities were making all time highs. That's not exactly the best portfolio if you remember how precious metals had performed in two thousand nine news, okay, not the greatest relative to all the other more sexier assets at the time, but what was interesting? Dan Is that as soon as twenty twenty started come around the corner. I decided see basically come up with this idea. This approach called Vision Twenty twenty, ironically, a certain person individual running for president now is using that moniker, which is vision. Vision Twenty twenty. It's a great time to do sell, and then what I did with this portfolio is I looked at I. Understood one thing the most important thing is that as demand was being sucked out of the economy as determined by the states, the world over what adding he bits me as you simply had too much lower down the risk, and what do I mean by that? I mean as opposed to focusing on emerging markets only had to go into like big. Companies for example, I really need to reassess. Maybe getting some exposure to some multinational players, maybe even Boeing for goodness Sakes base on all this uncertainty that had happened throughout the throughout most of this year in twenty twenty, and then ultimately what I wanted to do was because I was in Asia I also. Understood the threats of what unknown virus coming out of China would have in the marketplace. I was wearing masks. Dan was selling masks in the month of every early February. At that time, and as far as the state is concerned I knew that happened much longer so that kind of day that was a great meeting indicator of being coast near Indus region. I understand the the ability that China had presented with. With this unknown virus at the time by the time ultimately reached the Western world and hit basically the shores of the United States, it became kind of like old news to me so throughout the the spread of Corona. E created great opportunities in windows to understand the top of the market, which was like February, at it also got needed feel comfortable with basically starting to by all these lower risk curve. During the end of March, and that's all the indicated. My twitter like I make the calls like live It's all time. Stand so I'm not just saying that many people as you know in lates march for probably earful of the market, but at that time I was like okay this I was getting bored in. Just thinking about this corona. Because to me, it happened in January February as opposed to like late March, but at that time you had hedge fund managers going on CNBC saying everyone the world. Is GonNa end, but to me I was like wait a minute. This is an opportunity and I. Kinda got excited about the fact that. All of Wall Street which rely on a lot of financial models in economic models would totally be disrupted, and that provided just even an individual. Let's say let's say retail investor some parody amongst Wall Street for the time. It wasn't about glycine about each. Yes, because one knew and for the first time Benham, it wasn't even about guessing about GDP figures. No one really knew you had. Had to have intuition, wisdom and knowledge influence to have identified all the greatest opportunities to invest in so I was telling you earlier in two thousand nineteen. What was I bite? I was into precious metals as into contents. Ironically as you know, precious metals are doing awesome, maybe not as exciting as the other asset that was really into which was context because while everyone was in. Basically streaming Netflix's like no tomorrow. They were listening to spotify like there was no tomorrow and the cash flow that could be derived does assets a truly signified to me? This idea that content is king. Overall that was kind of like. Fully and I'm building a portfolio towards tech companies in both the United. States and China and Eastern for China is strictly about saving. Did you say saving face. Your thesis about China is about saving face okay. I just wanted to clear that A. So China as you know. Being Accused of being the origin point of where the virus is coming from. The Asian mindset will not allow them another. Let's say hundred years of humiliation being an economic power that they are so if you notice the Shanghai index throughout this whole duration has actually held a lot of relative strength, but that's not based on fundamentals. There's the country's opening up locking down opening up locking down. It's this dead. This is strictly based on not wanting to have a stock market. That's underperforming imagine. How bad would it look like for China to basically? Basically say because they've already taken GDP out of the equation. They're basically saying we're not providing any guidance towards GDP for them to have the worst performing stock market in the world. They can't afford to allow that to happen so as part of a the aside. In Asian perception of wanting to you know save face, hold some dignity you WanNa have a good performing stock market because you've got a president. That's basically talking about markets making all time highs. Okay, okay. I just want our listener to know. Sam Is an Asian name. It is not anglo-saxon. He's from folks. Peter Fan is allowed to talk about the Asian mindset. Okay, 'cause. He's eighty seven I just wanted to put that out there because I know, some people are GonNa say who is this guy? He's racist or whatever, because that's in the air today. Right? Oh my gosh. Yes. Your point. Your point is already well made so the saving face. It's a real thing. It affects decisions at all levels of Chinese government is what you're telling me. Yes, and then perhaps I should quantify it, so it's not even this isn't going to be just like you know some antidote. Okay the way to quantify it as it relates to. China, and even the United States is if you notice throughout most of this year went bad unemployment. Unemployment figures or let's say a low GDP figures out in both countries. You can see that their central banks were so eager to basically stimulate the economy or provide newswires that were so positive towards stimulus that it superseded the negative economic data that was coming out. So that's what that is demonstration to you of this saving theory at at and what I mean by. That is when China was releasing GDP. Figgers, what they did is simultaneously. was also talking about how they're going to bolster the economy through stimulus and the Fed did that to when you had like I. Think it was maybe. A, few months ago, there was like job figures with massive unemployment, and then basically it's like bad. Come in and distraught money so that happened and they happen concurrently. So you know to saying I can one thing I can tell you as far as China is concerned is it's much more coordinated the new exit the Economic Data GonNa. Come out and I would assume that same of the United States, and then basically you're central banks. Say Hey, we're going to be a backstop. And hence why equities had levitated to the levels that they have. All right I, hear you and by the way I mean. We were two peas in a pod about about moving down the risk curve. You know trying to reduce overall risk in the portfolio I'm at the same place. So you know people get there by different means, so I WANNA talk I want shift gears a little bit now because I want to compare something that you wrote to something that Ben Graham said. And I'll read your thing. I you said in one of the articles that you sent me. Mathematics is not an abstraction. Numbers are real things it is mathematics is reality, and then you. You said it comes down to this. The game of finance is designed mathematically. Only through using mass backward engineering and today's computing systems. Can we have a chance to win this game of numbers this feature? The market will outlive any fat model of the day. It is the very nature of the market itself and I contrast that with Ben Graham I. Think you probably know enough about Ben grabbed a know where I'm headed. In the intelligent investor Graham said mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results, but in the stock market, the more elaborate abstract, the mathematics, the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions we draw there from whenever calculus is brought in or higher, Algebra, you can take it as a warning signal that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give to speculation the deceptive guise of investment, so we have some contracting views here between you and Ben Graham, and I want to try to make. Make it again as concrete as possible for the listener. What do you mean when you say? Mathematics is real because I know. A lot of people who are mathematicians and scientists say mathematics isn't really real. It's not the way every nature necessarily behaves all the time, though quite a bit of the time, and you say you know mathematics is real. The game a finance design mathematically you. You must do math to win this game of numbers. What are you telling me here? Are you telling me I have to be a? Sedan let's start off with. A simple thought experiments without going crazy about it, but I think people would have been suddenly. you start to understand the parallel. Is, Imagine Dan, whatever you're thinking about or imagine if you had a dream last night and Now anything as it relates to like words descriptions in feelings. That's almost see relevance, but if you had this thought or idea or dream. That had numbers as you know numbers. That transitions if you notice very well into the rest of the world's, so imagine that you have an idea that comes from the mind. it could be an image that doesn't translate well, but if you notice if you start thinking numbers, send, it translates very well, and it is the only truth in both the mind, and let's say the real world. To make it really simple if I dream that two plus two equal four and I feel terrible about it in the dream, the feeling terrible about it just doesn't mean anything really in the real world, it only means something subjectively to me, but two plus two is definitely four. Yes, okay I'm with you. Okay, so now that we've established that even ideas as it relates to like math and numbers, let's say numbers. Keep it even more simple. That translates very well into the real world. In fact, it really is probably part of our world and I'll give you a great example when we think about the economy, typically, economists divide the economy into two parts one. They call the real economy, which is kind of like you know whatever you can see sense in touch, and it's related to like the Common Joe, and how lives and then we talk about this financial economy, whatever that means right, the financial economy is why the stock market is reaching all time highs, but to the real economy is like why the average Joe on the street might be losing his. At and what a lot of the talking heads are doing and a lot of people, you're interviewing are saying. Is that. Hey, this doesn't make any sense. I don't get why we have stock markets, mckean all-time highs and while the average. Joe Is suffering hence why I want to revolt, but while they're being frustrated about what's happening these financial, this financial economy, which is highly driven by numbers this you know. How do you measure finance? You measure it through numbers. Is, ultimately getting bigger, hence creating this wealth divide. That's why mark, Zuckerberg maybe getting richer while everyone's becoming or because he threw. Let's say this websites tech social network company using a bunch of technology. All encoded numbers is then listed on a stock market, which is all. Understood through numbers that is being perpetuated through valuations. Are Not even part of the fundamental aspects of the valuation, but strictly based on like you know excitement's about the company as it relates to the multiple, so I know that a lot of people look at finance, and they focus on things like the underlining fundamentals i. get that, but you also know that there's a massive disconnect between the fundamentals and Frites, and that's what seems to be driving economy right now so to go back to your statement about Ben Graham. Let's take his greatest disciple, which is Warren Buffett. I'm what I wrote in one of those pieces then is. Interesting potentially very controversial. I'm willing to make the Bet Dan is that Warren Buffett in economy, not as developed and is successful as the united. States would not be Warren Buffett, and the primary reason to why Warren Buffett is successful investor is because he basically went long. US equities, which is the most financial, is economy or better, yet is the bellwether and the benchmark of basically global capitalism. That's why he's been able to hold some of these positions that socks and have done. Done well better than maybe using some of the models that Graham has talked about. I see where I see where you are here. Okay, I. Get it, but I think my sing with the Graham quote, the two sentences that really caught me. It's you said this feature. This this mathematical feature that you're you're describing about markets. You said it will outlive any fad model of the day, whereas Graham was kind of saying that these mathematical models and so forth are probably more faddish. It seems to me like you're saying you know this. This higher math may be. This is a this is a permanent feature. The stock market is always going to be like this and people like you know. Jim Simon's Hugh makes like whatever it is eighty percent a year for a while there by knowing this stuff. You know they're always going to make more money than other people because they know this stuff. and. And when you talk about like these tech companies like to me. This is a cyclical thing. We go through this every ten or twenty years where people get really super excited and they're convinced that facebook and Amazon and Google. We'll just stick with the really matthey ones right facebook. Google. Probably Microsoft, you know. That that these businesses are great. They're going to be great forever. You can pay any price you want, and you'll make a great return. They said the same thing about Cisco. Systems and other companies in March of two thousand, and of course they were all down eighty percent within two years. I'm actually kind of with you. Though because there are people like Jim Simon out there I just as I think through this allowed with you I. Think I can see what you're saying, but I also think there is a fad. If you agree with me that there's a fad element here, help me separate that from from what you say is the feature that will outlive the fad model. Like what what part of the fad and what part is the permanent feature? Okay so, let's use an analogy to make things very simple, so let's think about the ocean for a second and understand that the fundamentals that Ben Graham is discussing. Outs are kind of like the water molecules with into ocean. Now you understand that. In an ocean there's tons of waves or when we think about whether for example you notice that there's going to be like Tornados. In typhoons and Hurricanes and people build a whole profession out. Monitoring goes features in nature, but ultimately what is it? It's basically water molecules. It's all basically matter, but if you notice lot of these weather, phenomenon seen to have a life of its own now this is analogous to the out of the stock market. The stock market has. A fundamental underpinning to it, and then when we think about price, we think about we could use the analogy like waves for example that seemed to have a life of its own. That's why we refer to it. As the market and the market has life of its own, and ultimately, what is the market? The market is a bunch of participants that are buying and selling a stock, as and then the stock is basically the price discovery that's happening on a millisecond level for like for guys like renaissance. They're basically buying and selling. And ultimately this is the juxtaposition between price and value now. What am I saying to you I'm seeing that the market mechanism the mechanism of the stock market will outlive any. Method, we think we can use like for example in any kind of fundamental law any technical analysis that we could use. We're going to basically not going to be able to be there. and the under fundamental underpinning of the market mechanism will be there because it was created as such, and it will continue to outlive. Any kind of model indicates the Warren Buffett today. He fully confused about what to do with airlines, because he cannot assess demand, and ultimately demand is going to be one of the major inputs in his cash flow model as far as forecasting the revenue these businesses, but if you notice, why are these socks still being traded? They're missing a massive component towards his financial model, and maybe technician might be dumbfounded by what's happening in the market. But at the end of the day the stock market, which has been opened throughout the whole time of the lockdown is driven by the market mechanism, and it seems to have a life of its own as you see these prices making higher high. That's kind of what I mean about this situation. And therefore, if if you understand that about the market mechanism, you don't need to be an elaborate mathematician. Understand what's happening. What if you simply look at basically bids and ask and see Luke for some kind of influx of buyers relative to sellers? Clearly, you're gonNA. Start to see the waves get higher or the market price. Get Higher and again. That's the feature of the stock market. It's the market mechanism which I'm referring to. Okay, it sounds a bit. Yeah, it sounds like you're saying one way or another you better speak the language you better, you know. Speak the language of accounting or the language of price, the language of bid ask the language of cash flow. You better speak some of this mathematical language, or you're gonNA. Get run over is that that's what I'm taking? Is that what you're saying? Yes, and what I mean by the fads that if you only focused on maybe one, then you're going to be missing out on. Let's see demand was to be eradicated like it was in twenty twenty. Suddenly the cash flow models make no sense right, but there's other mechanisms that are working. You'd better be able to understand what's happening or else. You're GONNA miss basically a thirty forty percent. Percent Recovery in equities, and that's what you notice has happened to a lot of fund managers. Yeah has so. Let's start trying to tie this together. We've got the life. Cycle of nation states were were starting. You're starting to get concerned and you're holding a safer portfolio because you see this mega point approaching, which is basically it's based on governments financing their increased interferences and increased centralisation. which is to me, that's that's a phenomenal insight. Right there, you just you just paid your way. Buddy that that that is good stuff. And then you also, we've also made the point here that you know. We darn well better speak the language of some kind of mathematical language that goes along with investing whether it be the language of accounting or or technical analysis or someth-. You know quantitative analysis something you better speak this language or you're gonNA, get run over. If I could ask you to concisely kind of leave. You don't have to tile that up. If you don't want to. I just wanted to restate it for the listener, so if there's another point that you WanNa make I always ask all my guests at the end of the interview. You know if there's one thing that you could leave our listeners with. What would that be and if it's you know restating all this stuff? Fine, if if it's something completely different, what would that if you could leave him with one simple thought that they could just grab onto to understand the message that you are so passionately trying to tell them? What would that one thought be? The one thought would be is to study and understand. The trajectory and cycle of a currency and let's take the US dollar as the example now a lot of gold bugs which are probably listening to this podcast. Understand what the US dollar currently is. They understand that it is yacht money. Basically, it's not real now. Imagine that the whole economy is predicated on the US dollar. What does that mean? It didn't means that a lot of the Kadhamy must not be real. Hence w-why I encourage the listener to understand the distinction between the financial economy and the real economy. The real economy is what the average Joe is doing. He was essential worker working in the convenience store that is disgruntled about everything that's happening, and then you have this financial economy the. Financial Economy are the central bankers for example, or they're the politicians. Technocrats that are running the economy and day are perfect. Dating the wealth divide that is happening using a Fiat currency such as the US staller. You have a choice. Basically, the choice of everyone that is listening is either you become this satisfied and disheartened with what you're seeing, and then you're just gonNA. Sit there and you're gonNA complain. You'RE GONNA wind and maybe you're gonNA think you're going to buy gold, or you're going to buy hard assets as your counter rebellion to basically the the deepening of. Of the states and what I am here to do is tell you that you're absolutely incorrect to think that if you buy a hard asset that you've completely hedged herself from the states, because it is the state that acknowledges the value of a lot of the hard assets that you own such as real state without basically land laws, land ownership ownership rights. which are designed by the states, your hard assets would have no value that would be point number one point number two. Is that understand that countries? They ultimately don't last that long ago. So this whole idea that maybe you're gonNA. Hold something for generation after generation. Under very few circumstances. Do you see that happening? In fact, the oldest culture we see now is currently the one that we're focused on is currently the western culture which originated in the seventeenth century. And now we're getting close to that point in which empires tend to collapse. Is that to say that that's going to happen right away? No, but you should be cognizant of that faith in credit that the state has told you about to think about when you're buying these kind of assets, so it sounds to me. Like you're you're one? Thought it the way I'm interpreting this. Your one thought is really. If. You're reasonably intelligent, which is probably everybody listening to this podcast? You can study the history of currencies. And you will wind up one way or another. You'll wind up on on the Peter. FAM- train. You'll, you'll get and you'll realize that being truly diversified. Is desirable and a little more difficult and a little different than you would have thought before you studied that history. You think you know, but you have no idea. Right I do want to leave it. There are no you have a lot more to say and I encourage people to search you out on twitter, and and find out what all that is, but I have to tell you I've been reading your stuff and I've been talking and I was like Gosh. This is so abstract, but I know this guy. I know there's good ideas in here and I think we really sussed out some really great ones and I just I. Thank you for coming on and sharing with us. I hope you'll. You'll do it again sometime and keep very much. Dan was an honor to be on your podcast and I hope that we can like you said do this some time, and hopefully I'll have some more interesting things to say as it relates to investing in this climate. Of that, I have no doubt. Thanks a lot, Peter. For now. ANC Stan Talk to you soon. Aright. Talking to Peter Fam would would bring out some really just interesting viewpoints, or what may even be familiar themes to you, but he just has a little different way of putting things which I think is valuable I'm I'm glad we did this man. I'm really glad we talked with them, so let's go and see what's in the mail bag. High Ron Paul here today I have an urgent message for every American. Who's retired or thinking about retiring soon you see our own governments. Disastrous policies have now put you be everyone over the age of fifty. Eh Great Risk sometime in the near future. We're going to have yet another financial crisis. This one won't be solved with bailouts, and it will hit seniors hardest, I fear, there will be civil unrest a drop in stock prices. Pension Fund collapses big changes to social, security and Medicare. Medicare the erosion of personal liberties, bank and brokerage closings, and ultimately a major crisis as a US dollar is rejected for almost any non-paper alternative. Don't let this happen to your retirement Dr. Ron Paul strongly believes when the next crisis hits, there'll be no warning and the government won't save you. Go to www dot Ron Paul. Warning the number five dot com where you'll learn simple steps, you can take to protect your retirement. Go Online to www dot ron paul warning five dot com. In the mail bag each week. You and I get to have an honest conversation about investing or whatever is on your mind. Just send your questions, comments and politely worded criticisms to feedback at investor, our dot com, I read every word of every email you send me and I respond to as many as possible. Today, their first one is from Alvidi. And Alvie says regarding your stanbury investor our podcast on nine hundred twenty episode one sixty two. You discussed a question by Vojtech see who wrote that he tested many years of trailing stops and found. They are much inferior to simple random exits. But what you fail dimension in your response was that if you use the approach of trade stops by Trade Smith the point is that they get back in after trailing, stop gets hit once. The time is right to do so I recall vividly the seminar. Put on by Porter Stephen Doc I for a year or so ago where data were presented, that showed unequivocally that if you use the Trade Smith approach to trailing stops. You would have made many times more profit over the long. Long haul than simply exiting the trade and not getting back in at all, that's the great point about their approach trailing stops, and it's the main reason I purchased their newsletter. I'd like to hear your thoughts about this, because I think the questioner was wrong about his conclusion. Thanks for your podcast regard, LV thank you, Al! Thank you for reminding me of that. They did they did a big presentation and discussed it. Just as you laid it out and look, I'll go even farther al.. If there is one product that every stanbury subscriber ought to have. Its trade stops I've said that before I haven't maybe I. Haven't said it enough, but I'll say it again. Given the proclivities and just the normal. The normal human tendency of most people, I think trade stops can be a big help for the reasons. I discussed last week. It keeps you from having catastrophic losses right and for the reasons that you reminded me of today. There's a system for for getting back in. That does well over time. Thank you for the reminder. Next comes Derek and Derek is an alliance member and he says. Hi Dan. Cullen Roach who interviewed last week. Colin Roach said the US has not had inflation despite fed actions by referring to the CPI and goods and services prices. Why didn't he refer to the increase in asset, prices, stocks, metals and real estate. Instead the government fabricated CPI. He tried to explain over and over how complicated qe money printing treasury and fed actions all ours. Really Complex was his mantra. We are confused misconceived. What is going on? Maybe so, but if I personally tried any of the actions closely similar, I'd be arrested for counterfeiting. The government would not say it was too complicated to prove I if it quacks like a duck. Dot Dot dot I'll alliance member Derek I think you make a reasonable point about the difference between you know the CPI versus asset prices. It's clear that somebody somewhere thinks that stocks are worth. More than almost they're all time highest valuation which is where they are today. They're almost at all time highs valuation. Not, price valuation valuation is like price time sales, price times earnings that kind of stuff, and by the way for the S. and P.. Five hundred. The number is price time sales. That's the one historically that has correlated the best, the most negatively actually with subsequent ten and twelve year returns being when it's high subsequent ten twelve year returns in stocks are low when it's low returns are high. And it's up around two point three again, and it's all time. High was like two point four so. Really, expensive and obviously elevated so I hear you I didn't hit Colin Roach up with this. You can go, and you can go on twitter and ask him about it. And he he responded. He's responded to a couple of things on twitter and his last name's Aro. C., H., e. you had it spelled like the insect here. Just go look them up on twitter and ask him I'm curious to see what he might say. The next one is from mark in the last four or five years banks, and then he's got a bunch of ticker symbols and names fifth. Third State Street, be Oh. He says banks have done well facing the current economic pinch from covid. Is the outlook for banks, not good. Is it time to put money elsewhere? Thanks for your show. The guests are Great Mark P. Mark. v I I. Do have some ideas about banks. My basic idea is take a look at Europe. They all in and Mario Draghi famously said he'd do whatever it takes, and they pushed inter traits in the negative territory, and take a look at the price chart of Deutchebanks as that happened. You know straight down when? The the yield curve like that and it gets very flat. They have a harder time making money. Okay next comes. TJ S and T. J says I have to say while I have been listening long only a few months. This was the best guest so far. He's talking about last week Colin Roach. I've read books on the Fed modern monetary theory and I even have a degree in economics, so I have a putative understanding of our banking system works I never heard the effects of that system delivered in such an understandable way. Banking is a dark art to most people Colin Roach helped. Remove some of the darkness. Thank you very much, thank you, T J I'm going to let that stand on its own as it says it all. Finally this week. Jason W says hello, if someone thought commodities were undervalued, and they are not a professional trader or short-term market timer. Is there an index ETF? You would recommend to express that idea, maybe not a single commodity, but something that would mirror the direction of commodity prices as a whole, or is there a better investment to express the thesis of commodities undervalued? Thanks for all you do Jason W. Jason I hate to say this, but I got nothing for you in the way of a single e, T F and also. I wanted to address this question because there's something about the idea of all commodities. I mean my experience. Is that throwing them altogether like that? If you really are going to hang on for the long term, you think there will be inflation, or you know some other type of. Induced shortage of some kind over the long term may be, but the there's just something about a long-term bet on commodity prices in general. That bothers me a little bit because I know in inflation adjusted terms over the very long term. You know commodity prices can and should do fall. They should fall. That's the definition of progress. My Bet is more about gold and. Silver because of their monetary value and Their value as a store of value for the last several thousand years, and I think they'll probably be a store of value for another few thousand at least. But this idea of betting on the whole Commodity Complex I. Know People do it. It's not a crazy idea. I know people do this and think this way and I see charts. You know that show the commodities. Cycling, right rising falling, rising falling, it makes sense. But my comment you simply be. Be careful with us. Just be careful with it. I'm bullish gold. Golden Bullish on silver. I might even be bullish copper given. You know all its various uses and the fact that. It's sort of wanted the green oriented meddlesome. You know if if all the environmentalists get their way will probably be using more copper. And it's in general. You know Dr Copra Mozambican indicator the call they call copper Dr Copper, because it's supposed to be an indicator of general economic activity, so if you think general, economic. Is going to pick up over the next several years or that? There's going to be inflation of of any decent amount you know. Copper is one way to express that and there are copper APPs are Goldie. TF's. There's a silvery TF's. So you might look at. Whole complexes of commodities, precious metals, agriculture, other things, and there are ATF's for all of that stuff, so you could easily could go onto yahoo and find them easily and put together a little portfolio that expresses your view about all commodities. Just wanted to share their slots with Jason. It's a great question and I had some things on my mind and I. Thank you for giving me a chance to express them. and. That's another episode of the Stance Berry. INVESTOR OUR I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did. Do me a favor, subscribe to the show on I, tunes Google play, or wherever you listen to podcasts, and while you're there, help us grow with a rate and a review. You can also follow us on. FACEBOOK and INSTAGRAM are handle is at investor. Our also follow us on twitter. Where handle is at investor underscore our. Have a guest you want me to interview. Drop us a note at feedback at investor. Our DOT COM till next week. I'm Dan Ferris. Thanks for listening. You for listening to this episode of the stands Berry investor our to access today's notes, and received notice of upcoming episodes good to investor, our dot com, and enter your email have a question for Dan. Send him an email feedback at investor, our DOT COM. This broadcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice, trading stocks, and all other financial instruments involves risk. You should not make any investment decision based solely on what you hear stands Berry investor. Our is produced by Stanbury research. It is copyrighted by the stands. Berry Radio Network.
1170: "Generational Justice"
"Seventy this is no agenda still fighting dark mode end broadcasting live from opportunities thirty three the Frontier Austin Texas capital drones boom is eyeball blows out Adam Curry John's divorced Thursday September fifth two thousand nineteen. This is your award-winning nation media assassination episode eleven. Why would anybody want to watch that? Well I watched a little bit of Elizabeth Warren I watch very little of Kamala GIG GIG ler out of a ten hour document I just needle dropped and found stuff it was that easy but when I'm when I'm saying Eh what's been going on I'll tell you what I did yesterday and then you tell me where you'd like to start because I watch a lot of that climate change townhall her yeah it's it's the whole thing from a television production standpoint what a losing piece of crap two examples of how setup scripted this was because of the way disagreeing with you right away it's not easy to pull out the gaps and I will say this that Scott Adams had a interesting take on Kamala Harris he says that she has it kind of comes out and just looking at this obviously the audience was stacked it wasn't really a town hall it was a CNN studio where they had it I think he's made you write about this. She has the personality of a submissive interesting because I I have a clip where that kind eight more gesticulate what is -gistically eating Schrool throwing her arms all over the place when she talks gotTa Laugh Yeah Yeah for me yes that's true do oh man what's been going on blues yeah the the last show you were so long it took us three three retakes to do it and now it's done one one and done you know the bogus changing images of Hurricane Doreen on on the big screen because of course we know that this is all due to what I was interested in how it was set up and you know if I were to produce this at I think someone had some humor it'd be like okay categorize them and American Indian to ask a question of the fake American Indian it's great idea. CNN First American climate refugees were the first American climate hear what she said but choosing something chuck she's right out of central casting she's perfect to ask an an American Indian which is the preferred way to Warren. Now let's get some questions for oh I know let's get an American Indian to ask her a question that'll be great yeah let's do that old induced asthma and from relief rally repeat flooding so my question to you is if President what changes would you make because John Comber del she's from a narrow island of land in Louisiana known as I'll Dijon Charles it's rapidly disappearing because of rising sea levels and not just one plan I decided I was going to try to look at climate in every part of the plans on working on so different places so for example on policy I can't it actually ends funding but I can't listen to it here's the problem I'll into the submissive Liz go into her spiel and she knew this was coming so let me start by saying very sorry I am refugees we had a front row seat to climate change for the past twenty years I was had to move my home from my home when I was little due to support communities like mine who face community-wide displacement and Cultural Racial Oh man I love the she said to cultural erasure or I got a lot of places where this comes in because that's how I see it's not gonna be a one and done that's all confined it's that it hits in when you have taken over and So I see it this way when when I think about climate now this was interesting the climate immigrants is bullcrap and and Elizabeth Warren is bullcrap. Let's move onto mayor Pete so mayor Pete Ah the whole Globe and that she makes huge circle with her arm she's thrown our arms left and right and left and right I mean it's like if she poked somebody's I added they were standing near that threatens all life on this planet feeling we're listening species exchanging the oceans are getting more acidic so when I I climate refugees no this oil and gas drilling it's erosion it's not because the sea level is rising actually we have one the John Charles has been a quote unquote sinking for decades because of the levees in Louisiana the Levy Stop the city assisted before but they finally start mapping it and it turns out the thing hasn't been even eroding that much the problem one road this woman hasn't lived there for most of her life but oh cultural what was it is bullcrap now the island is bullcrap you were so ready for this she took that and she says no let me tell you about this we didn't think about kind she turned to the camera and goes into a pre rehearsed spiel the founder and CEO of Jordan energy do solar panel installation as well as Co founder and board president of the let's share the Sun Foundation which is I'm a change because there was it was ten hours and everybody got a turn and it's easy to to grab the gaffes in the dumbness but it just took too the heart to watch your homelands disappear this and know that you've done everything you can do but that the forces pains issues discussed here today to the next generation and any children you may choose to raise we'll we're hoping to have kids one day and for the questions I get from kids about climate almost always either about gun violence or about climate remember remember children have been abused have been abused right now I also frankly think of it a little more selfishly because when we're talking about whether we hit this target of twenty fifty decarbonising our economy yeah just leave it will deconstruct it in a minute coastal erosion shantelle thank you very much for being with us what's your question Sean Tell Hank you so as from the Allergy Charles is there asking about whether they're going to be able to kids again it's why I think this isn't just saving the planet this is saving the future for specific people who are alive I started thinking about how to describe what will president I decided I wasn't GonNa do one climate plan no no no one no no no it was it was so icy at this way when when I think about climate the existential threat it is the one Oh have a gay guy ask him a question about children this is even funnier and let's make sure the gay guys into Solar Power Bill Jordan Troy New York Alexi Cheddar Marta chocolate dried. We've been dubbed as ninety by a this chunk Todd Chuck Chuck tour abroad I didn't ladies and gentlemen please put your oxygen mask on if they should drop from the ceiling of Your House because we're losing the world's oxygen it remember this is for the children and this is you can find all kinds of articles here from the from the New Orleans Lens the people of Dejong Charles aren't the country 'cause it should be climate erasure as this said Cultural Race Scher erasure about cultural climate erasure I didn't just look in for a term now that's why there is so much riding on this election and for me and everybody I know for the children that we hope to have for the people who will be alive at the turn of the century for the children that we hope to have for the people who will be alive at the turn of the century one if we don't change what we're doing we lose half the world's oxygen because what's going on is of a child right now with a straight face and say we're doing right by them we owe it to them to get this done before it's too late reducers of the no agenda show put a couple of things together to help me explain this exactly how this is not only works but is extremely effective look in the eyes of our children we can't do that let me we just need to go through briefly when there's a scripts by abusing other children to make them all afraid and just the choose the crap out of them and Pete seems to be good with this is a personal question breath so first of all if you want to put together some campaign with kids you've got to start by showing the kids playing playing grownups gripped to abusing children and getting this meam this message going and in this case is being abused and children are being abused for climate change a group and if we don't change what we're doing we could lose half the world's oxygen because of what's going on in the oceans that is unthinkable and we owe it to we just cannot look ACA twenty twenty and be proud of what we did to begin getting on the right track or realized we're the ones who blew it these are the years you know we talked about twenty thirty also the panels and poor parts of the world bill thank you for being a part of this what your question how do you and chasing think about leaving the world a better place particularly around the climates You know Lord Willing I plan to be here I would now wait for some stats in my sixty s by the time we know whether we have succeeded and can look them interact with adults making the adults obviously sound stupid and unaware of what's going on this is an example so much what he's saying we have to be underway by twenty twenty otherwise forget about it so vote hey because we have to get done by this election vote for me talk about twenty thirty as a deadline but in many ways twenty twenty as the deadline because if we're not underway I want to know that our kids can thrive when I got into this campaign I talked a lot about the idea of generational justice looked at me funny because I don't think it's something that's going in and out does very poorly supported and they don't want to keep this road going and there's a bunch oil and gas at the drill so they're rousting the people were this song has been in my head since the last show the threat many years excuse me a moment stuck about climate change so that that's how you start off a campaign then you had I love these kids are not here listen to do our part not only to be just to those around us but to those who will come in the future and I think when we're on the campaign trail now and more see this in real time with no agenda show the kids you've got to have them pitch the issue to the viewer and the audience addressed him in a little bit of a patronizing way showing them ignorant stupid it is we can lose half the world's oxygen how put issue most important to them climate scientists are now saying the only twelve years plus tax if we want to avoid catastrophic damage that's why we're lobbying the federal talk generation to write that one down generational justice goes right to the top of the list good walked about much but each of us has an obligation Ned Did but you're not doing enough point out the deadline like twelve years or twenty twenty as mayor Pete said and then you have to have some authority like scientists watched very little of it every time I turn it I watched my watching desk it was impossible Wei can Elizabeth Warren gesticulate sticks in your head like cheap chewing gum the do you like this song so like camping for night friends cheating poke him on an parents hustling them about screen time but we gave them a list man to the Borax Dodo when you say that they say it's has to happen we pulled kids across Canada and asked them to rank election issues in order of priority seventy four percent rights climate changes right now being exploited special thanks to Sir Felix Wilson and Jenny Fam- and Felix's friend take the let the kids vote campaign done expertly with all the elements you need so let's at the end but that's how it works in your all now going to donate to the show let's hope so now you have more on the used clips from something we played on the last show let the kids vote to music kind of like a we are the world vibe if you can get the kids to sing in a choir melody the age from Eighteen to eight so then you've got you've got to wrap it up you've got to have a catchy hook so you know like let the kids vote by the time the new president takes office we really have lost our last shies why there is so much riding on this weight and for me and everybody I know exploding and MacDill Ma'am I think we're too late for that one visit piece on your cheek that looks like Rachel matter is a deadline but in many ways twenty twenty as the deadline because if we're not underway by the trade the new president takes office we really have lost our last shot it's why there is intros exploding dillas number one concern because it sounds funding scientists say that we are in the of twelve years of schooling and well is using the four hundred parts per million as the tipping point which we've passed three six we pulled thirty three kids because getting our nation in the morning and awesome to rank issues that affect them in order of priority Aref's industry the ocean food chain but leave the climate intact then in two thousand thirteen co two concentrations in the atmosphere past four hundred million that's it's children before we era Salita Ninja adults that's why we've been exploited now for chief loss and to get donations for the no agenda Chard field our producers who sent me a long documents just fry fabulous and he goes honest as the island was even known until nineteen thirty five even though it apparently and here's a CNN weatherman Chad Myers little interstitial saying I used to be a climate skeptic but then it changed he was the tipping point right wasn't three fifty I think it was climate change three fifty three six hours three hundred sixty dot org three fifty dot org the earth would reach a greenhouse gas equilibrium for the ocean and plant life would absorb the excess co two that humans produced this would acidify the ocean killed could about these climate changing guests the science the facts and the myths when you sort the facts from the fiction you may see things as I do now so this and I knew the oceans and the plants couldn't keep up the demand we replacing on them there would be no equilibrium and the climate would change I so I went out to learn as much as oh and they condemned him and all the rest it's really worth following because this guy is pretty funny and this is Alan Jones versus the professors is the set at part one and mix Swang Jenny's dad as ned Jeffrey who wrote and recorded the Song Co wrote the lyrics and Squire Arlo Jeffrey we're in England it off Oh if you and I were in the meeting what we want to have a little fun with Mayor Pete how Gay Guy Ask him a question yeah the way the weather man and they call them the weather man not even meteorologist just weatherman weatherman he got to ask questions everybody it's like okay I was accused of downplaying the human impact on climate change of course no attempt was made contact me so that I could offer defense that's the key one of the guests was professor David Karoly refer to Australia atmospheric scientist based at the CSIRO and the question climate thing I have some clips have One other thing there was an interstitial that ran of a CNN weatherman our debts of one of the presenters on ABC Australian Broadcasting Company and he got into a beef because they did a climate thing denied before in your brain Jennings's statistics around humans I think it means human beings causing climate change and the roller strident specifically play is toed the line as you remember we had that clip with Al Gore in Judy and Judy made some allusion to somebody doubting these numbers we'll stats Jones and let the s off I the professor partout he said point four of a percent of the world's carbon dioxide was correct the other numbers that the the question and went on and three percent of that is created by human beings around the world and all that one point three percent is professor Karolyi replied not everything Jones says is factually correct now under he stumbled in seeking completely false I think I've seen this this bit it was very interesting I'm glad you pulled clips from it he i pulled the whole thing to part the eleven I interviewed Professor Keraly on Radio just play you an extract very brief of that interview it was very good his mediate me he went decide that while it is correct that point four percent of the world's atmosphere is carbon dioxide quote but okay sorry okay one two three six we're way best at temperatures have gone up in response to that much as three I was once a skeptic I get it years ago I didn't think the world's climate would actually change due to global warming gases I was convinced that excuse my bribe man gave you daddy bill I guess that's how the rest of the world works comes the train that get stuck in everybody's head so this was because the night before there's a bunch of climate people on it this is like the PBS Newshour the there are obliged to ask Professor Karoly the following I saw the radio commentator Ellen James on TV recently and he said that point four percent of the world's atmosphere is co two question referred to were three percent of that is what human beings created around the world and one point three percent of that three added biles dragons the questions it is that correct and if so is human activity really making a difference a pretty good question going on all over the world there are all these climate but there was a beef going on in Australia I don't know when this was but it seemed to be recent and this with Alan Jones and all I'm very friendly just this Fisa Crawley Good Morning Good morning how are you I'm very well thank you can I just begin firstly with a little bit of Maths Rhode Island and I I'm crying mm fishy going on to I think to something fishy captain obvious really okay so I noticed that there is a bunch of stuff at one point five percent LMU absolutely right absolutely right that is created by Australia's Karoly said though all his other numbers they must have been those last two numbers wrong will on the twenty fifth the same guy the night before that said he wasn't right so so this is and by the way people should pay attention to those numbers because we kind of we kind of lost track we can agree on a would you say it's an arguable that the level of carbon dioxide in the air is less than point four of a percent carbon dioxide is destroying the planet that's Keraly and the mobile on Q. and I would have you believe which brings us to the we're here in this country it'll stri children are being told her schools that Bondi beach could finish up at Baptist you've been tracking sea levels at various parts of the get this clear maths because you're the scientist I'm not point four of a percent of the is carbon dioxide and all of that point four of a percent ninety seven percents produced by nights human beings three percent now all of that three percent all Australian human activity transport industry agriculture mining power generation that stuff we produce one point heresy Lord Gorge jumped all over her I even suggesting such a thing and then she she relented to agree that the UN IPC intergovernmental panel on climate change says that of the Earth's annual production of carbon dioxide this point four of a percent anyway so this goes on and then we heard the numbers which put point four percent is four hundred parts per million by so let's listen to folks demonizing carbon dioxide demonizing qualified PA which is led us into this economic suicide miss business kind of the energy bill people at home can't afford the a hurdle walkie-talkie somewhere yeah yeah well I will take us out on on an up note on the left heaven forbid decieved by any means mud boss sheltered becomes annoyed if it gets wet so let's just listen to this I'm done with this segment I love Allen you're absolutely right that is that let's just put that aside I stand by what I've said for years we are talking about a global estimate record by checked it so there's something fishy about this whole thing because this was going on it's what you think to talk about sea levels who's one of the world's experts on sea level rises which kind of plays into your clip about the little island there in the middle of the Swan Electricity bill why well we export our coal so that others can have cheap electricity but we're not prepared to use it so that we can have cheap electricity because get the fact that that point four percent of the carbon dioxide ninety seven percent of it is produced by nature we got nothing to do with me toreador region and now we come closer to Stralia it's not even rising all edit has seen breath that absolute absolute sea level is not rising more than about one millimeter per year if we go to the you've just stop if it's that bad but okay now Jones did continue because this was really part of a show on something else which was he brought another guy in and this is where I ended with this but this is I just would throw this out there because I'm looking out and there's the big mudflats out there emory college professor tiffany unique this interesting tiffany spelled T. I p. h. a. n. e. I am nature's is the tip of tip so anyway so let's Jones bitching and moaning and making some generalities this is part three which says free no certainly not certainly not in the northern hemisphere and especially in the European we can prove and test present these facts we have hurricane doreen which made some very interesting moves but of course it was going to be the power the nuclear power plants Saint Lucy it was headed straight for it and then it pops up here's table for the last fifty to seventy years and death disaffected guide okay Oh this excuse me guys do you have a moment to talk about here she is talking about the Hurricane Hurricane Dorian professor unique you have said that the Caribbean is zero for the climate crisis and I want to say in the non stop coverage in the networks and of course it should be nonstop coverage of what's happening instead at that point because nitrogen is about seventy oxygen twenty one and then this on things like that but co two in the about point four of a percent wow that's a cool my sister's name is tiffany but she has the traditional tiff a and y this is that's a new one for me listening the best Glenn have you not for fifty years sea levels rising world wide which the climate change apologists keep telling us it's happening this you know you think wow that's a lot but you have to get down to the ground to see how bad it really is but this thing was supposed to come careening into Miami than it was going to be further north than it looked like devastated most of the Bahamas it's pretty bad and we really don't have any I'm just saying we just have that helicopter footage which he really never does it just hurricane there is almost no mention of climate change yeah so I don't know what she was watching good morning aiming combined one thank you ars stay in the morning everybody I'm Adam Curry from northern Silicon Valley I'm John That's a lot the point if if people are coal producers like Australia and they're exploring the code they should just stop producing one hundred percent all his T. I F. F. A. N. I. With a heart new guy that's a perfect one suggested to tiffany in the air nature produces ninety seven percents and human beings three percent of the annual flexible that go in and the Agnew Affleck come out so for having me again the truth is that these storms that are hitting the Caribbean with this intense magnitude are historic on president and these storms are manmade dorms. I love this I love this concept manmade storms this capital it's capital manmade though the the big term now amongst the climate deny climate change deniers but then you can see clear as day shooting across the southern part of the Florida peninsula a black band that shoots right into the get really dangerous storms once a decade and now we're beginning to see them regularly the Virgin Islands was hit by two category five storm forty seconds I put it in the show notes and you see Dorian swirling and he has a whole bunch of comments about the winds at the top and different altitudes which I won't get into you know it just takes forever to get the charge working but he had this radar image which was recorded image of about thirty five US North American capital in the Bahamas other ones that are most vulnerable to these things orangemen bed could be I mean we've been under the weather modification and whether there's a weapon is nothing new and then to see this thing Bob Straight towards Saint Louis signing that the people who are most vulnerable to these manmade storms are the ones who in all cases are not the and yeah that was one of my favorites this guy and Youtube Mike who does all the weather charts yes yes three million followers insane leading factors to the carbon emissions causing these storms these storms are being caused in part because of capital seventeen and to see now that the coverage is saying things like Dorian is going to hit the United States arms only two years ago while president trump indeed was our president category five storms and Maria into the on August twenty eighth when it hits Saint Thomas and Saint John it's as a doctor Campbell said it is quite ironic and later today is incredibly insulting and ongoing insult to the people of the United States Virgin Islands because Dorian hit the United States Virgin Islands the the the bottoms the bottom part of Dorian and kind of starts to whip it it almost like if you had a top in the you know you Wanda a rope around it and pulled it so this is kind of whipping it as if it was to to steer it in some direction I don't know what it is he doesn't know what it is but you can really Lucie nuclear power plant was interesting and that was the past trump thought it was gonna take an even drew a little little extras map but then it just Koreans very clear and I don't I don't think he's a faker it's very clear that something was pushing this thing so in a way I don't know if it was man made goes up the coast it was interesting but you know so when she says man made I believer only not in the context he's saying when I was growing up in the Caribbean we who of course also denied the Holocaust I'm still befuddled by that clip. This was Amy Goodman on democracy now amongst the climate change deniers is thermodynamic equilibrium and there's might never now from not mistake you're right yes correct and she has this nutcase come on and talk about this and she doesn't say anything like what we were guys been doing it for years and I've watched in many times but it usually give up because most of the time is like hold on that's the wrong chart oh I didn't work earth at this very moment is incomplete thermodynamic equilibrium meaning we have the right temperature for what we need. Don't ask me how they arrive at the at this information what makes you think so why would you miss it's on brand it's on message mess it up it's just beyond me so you don't have to go looking at it yourself sounds like a bogus term if ever but when I just to finish when I saw those that ten hours the word it's an internal state of thermodynamic system or relation between several thermodynamics is that term I think I would be in that category you're behind the Times my friend there's been several scientific papers showing that the horrible horrible way to go out you know he could have been you know the man who stood by Barack Obama side now he's the guy with the blown out eyeball zyppah blows out can happen yeah it's not very healthy though and it's not being addressed shake so getting so much blood pressure that them wrong repeating things that were wrong saying something opposite of what he said yesterday it's kind of a thing I maybe that's just age I don't think so some levels where some people do act but I don't think any of these people these weeks sister candidates for the Democratic Party nomination I think all of them are systems connected by more or less permeable or impermeable walls there you go so but that's I'm just telling you what the term is when they were like the high priest of the Church of climate you know it's the green religion and it's true and people are real that he got a bloodshot eye and it's the symptom of all kinds of other stuff in medication 'cause it was somebody suggested my suggestion he real read it to thermodynamic equilibrium is an axiomatic concept concept of through my den dynamics sounds legit concept the sad sad I'm sad for Joe not like this at all no he's not he's doing like he doesn't even doesn't want to nomination he's just doing it as kind of like a favor to his one son who does but that's AH watch this crap is the problem yes I'm sorry go on that was just going to say the the term yes that's it so bite and if you recall did run for president I think it was on a couple times way back before Baraga back in the eighties they could just got drugged him to get eyeball to blow up to make it make you know I think he's disguised not going to be the nominee what it is what did you think of his perform overall I didn't watch it Oh let's blow up yeah he was not good he was just not good he's not good her by the media media has picked her up as the leader because they don't have cameras a loser she can't pull it off and she ellery on their whether she's on on the podium or not you know timing is everything I think Joe Joe pulls out she swoops in we already in east would have started wearing it years ago when he had his plugs the cool thing is that he has the same sickness that trump has saying things wrong all in with the possible exception abidin an invite and blue is eyeball out that's and I think that was real that is days but a big a biggie would have to go and that Joe would-be OB- Elizabeth Warren the lot being especially her there's a lot being put on it happens happens yeah anyway Well I was GONNA follow up on the shootings we had text oh yeah that would be it would be all jacked up on something Benny's is jacked up and talking to like a mad man he's talking about climate change and going on and on boomer I think it's a style mixed with age bias way to remember autism scholarship that's my style just recently and I do that for a number of reasons mainly on my birthday my buddy and hall and called me from live on his morning radio show so we're we're it's really worldwide and I wanted to give a response to that and then follow up with what's going on here after the what we have I think everyone knows he's not gonNa make it and we all know who that nominee is going to be in a starting to appear thing is starting to very slowly move into the public consciousness hilary yes yeah he was a plagiarism and he also said he gets them degrees you never got he was actually humiliated out of one of the racist for lying about his college education oh I remember that yeah even camped he's unkempt you know he's all these have failed here now he's just ball if you had any thing going on he'd be wearing a weird in the UK and I'm GonNa make it very simple for people who are who are outside of the US our country was founded on where the citizens had a right and also owned guns and we have hundreds of millions of them in the United States is the US I've lived in the Netherlands I've lived in Belgium I've lived get his energy epilogue they get some some speed balls couple of shots and this and that and he got his blood pressure blue on an eyeball but Hillary's still not well you know this pictures of her out and about and you can see she's retaining water her ankles are concreting swollen now than I can't go she's swollen ankles runs because the in every country I've been in the the grasp that the closing in the the the notices the only reason we really have the guns I'm not GonNa bullcrap anyone about eight to be ready to be against their own government does that come with risks I would not disagree okay that's your standard bullcrap answer I appreciate it thank you for the many who emailed Have guns so if you really push us too far you politician will not be able to walk anywhere because we're everywhere and that's the removed Gillibrand which is good you can't have you can't have someone else coming from New York Yeah She's the Hillary Clinton so that would be as an obvious spot so that does free up some some is a lot of copycats and we may not have mentioned it but were very aware and people should be aware as well that you can own a machine gun sperry specifically that the people if they're tired of this shit then they can form new government well how do you do that well you can't do it without going on a fully automatic weapon in the United States but most don't because it's very expensive in the class three permit you have to get it through the national letters the forms they keep pushing you down and down and down and in the United States we have one ultimate deal which is we a Yukking it up and then he's like well I gotTa ask you the question everyone wants to know what's going on with all the guns and killing in America Dan's my birthday you want me to answer this question want so it's founded on the concept of having guns is a good idea if you if the government's the problem we have the constitution and in there it says tax stamp through the NFL National Firearms Act in you know con con can cost ten thousand dollars or more just to go through this process yes does that come with crap yeah absolutely it's not the biggest pool of people dying but it's really up it's no good that's just this for ten years and we appreciate it yes it's legal to have a an automatic weapon you have to go through a lot of hoops most people don't do it but there's plenty out there ground checks and let me see you have a clip here that I wanted to play this is yeah this Although we already know I wanted to know if the AK forty seven was sold in the United States as a semi automatic yes indeed and it is called the AK forty seven the Warren is the new chosen one by media and put Hillary comes in oh goodbye blow worn by yeah in gun Annan automatic pistol which everybody owns yeah automatic pistol is not a machine gun is just a pistol that Cox itself thank you know people send me like reams of tax than an email explaining that I'm wrong even though we we know this we've been El Paso Odessa so a lot of shooting going on here the first part A. and I've lived in many countries and the only country I've ever lived in failed a background check at a store which is how it's supposed to work but he had he had received a weapon from a friend every weapon and having lists of people lists is not a very loved idea certainly not lists of people who have guns I believe right and he was the same full of Shit Guy Back Dan before it was old yeah you're right it's kind of back where he was now hasn't really changed that much what's friction that's why we don't have them as probably a good thing although I don't know I know what difference it really makes but it's not you know yes but you could I do a lot better sadly the Washington Post reports today and they only quotes are says and what's change he should be cancelled for that cancelling now they only let him do his own thing I think on Monday suspected gunman who killed at least seven people and injured twenty two others and a shooting over the weekend had failed gun background check so he Sources familiar with it that Harpo the Health Advanced Research Project Agency US out your eyeball spring on Rwandan there where where it's not healthy at all then again sir this come from Turkey Science I know there's a real thing it's got a Wiki page and everything you know it's real it must it's the only way you can really enforce background checks on private sales is to have a guaranteed registration he's not gonNA and she's Giggling giggles and giggles and he's got a super spy she doesn't know what she's talking about anything so she's done and I mean somebody may still thinks that's where the problem is and obviously if this guy because you know there's all kinds of reports that he was shooting animals from the roof of his house with a gun that yeah is working with the of course the president the the the White House the complete administration in I'm reading the the the wording now in considering a proposal that would use Google Amazon apple to collect data on users who exhibit characteristics of mental illness that could and this is what they mean by comprehensive background checks but of course if as a private sale now on kicking the government's ass with guns the Brits is it not look we want to go here leave us alone they didn't leave us alone we fought him and we shot at them and the shot back and we you can win including Scott Adams who predicted her sometime Goni stay with well he's pretty hideous Janney who picked her picked her for some time ago but she's got no prayer chiefs violent behavior in other words a form of social credit score and so but the post is literally calling it a social credit scores such as China I'm flabby the problem but the Washington Post doesn't tell us who said this to him and I if obviously if this is true this is a this is a huge both the stopping aberrant fatal events by helping overcome mental extremes project oh God they came with an acronym dicks safe view if anyone's had wine they had guns to second amendment fine I'm telling you the basics of what we're about would you agree John Pasoan Dayton Ohio the Susan Right Foundation reapproach administration last week and proposed that Harpo include eight safe home acid I mean surely this this cannot be a true story if this is could be making it up to the I don't trust the Washington Post anymore that's the problem I have home officials discussed the proposed that the White House last week said to people familiar with the discussions these people and other spoke on the condition of anonymity because earliest there. I don't think they're acting they're really all in well I think all I don't think they're acting either I there are it does happen 2017 so this may be very old old but the idea has gained momentum in the wake of the of the latest mass shootings that killed thirty one people in one weekend took one simple example who's on antidepressants here's a question if someone is depressed should they have a gun this governor Abbot of Texas with information that I think it's been underutilized by the by the m five him but it's it's good Governor Greg Abbott it is the concept was advanced by the Suzanne Right Foundation and I discussed by officials on domestic on the Domestic Policy Council and senior White House. Staffers in June cels day one and I'm not I haven't changed my my stick on this dugout with it I would list of the nominees and who's running and who's GonNa win I keep him the sensitivity of the conversations but you read through this whole article and they're they're talking about having some kind of either an APP or you and we we don't and people dissents you're talking to overseas audiences there is a difference between an automatic rifle weapon machine you can you can if you're a criminal or let's create yeah you can you can make Jerry Reagan of course but I'm just fantasy have is you know I don't trust any publication really but you know USA Today is writing about voted somebody maybe some names Nana sources while they're doing something like a little flabbergasted I mean I think maybe let's look at a simple one and I know I'm not happy about saying this but if we just mm startup collaborated with the Communist Youth League of China to gather personal data from over seventy million young people the APP is called Eunuch town I'm sorry and if you need to be looked into that would be half the people that use these things so ordering contracts the lowest score is three hundred fifty and the highest is eight hundred uses with high scores above six hundred fifty can is when it comes to capitalizing on social credit it wants to build a system to cover all Chinese citizens between the ages of eighteen and forty five an estimated four hundred sixty the same as as Kacem yeah it's called an automatic but it's semi automatic so now we have this topic of God she young Young's company has developed a social credit APP it gives China's use a taste of the benefits one can have with a good social credit rating the Beijing China's China's Social Chris Credit Score update she onions company has developed a social credit APP it gives China's use a taste of the benefits using data directly from the big silicon valley companies to track you and see if your behavior is apparent Abirin take their guns away that's a start yeah that would do it well let's well let's check in by the way to John to top that's check in whether he had a not someone should have gone and looked looked in onset and check this ever failed a background check and so none of this is done so it's a lot of lip service and we certainly best price list price Marshall McLuhan I've heard the name throughout my life and never really knew who the guy was million people yeah it's future right there well we need to fight that if it by getting discounts on online courses or even be parachuted directly into the second round of job interviews China Youth Credit Management has more ambitious and so this is from nineteen sixty seven and just a three topics but all kinds of around the same idea when we talk about off the grid ot g years ago because every in car insurance company now has an APP you get extra savings for good behavior so the APP on your phone communications and satellites and how this would affect news satellite system broadcasting permits for example some unsafe behavior so your premiums are going up and it's here and there's no-one outraged about this great discount this talked about which is this is an APP that helps you get this dude google style I mean this is just disgusting story ended yes exactly who it is one can have with a good social credit rating is this Sargon of cod speaking sounds like I'll say this again with almost what you just just bad news if it isn't bad news it isn't news if it's good news it's likely to be PR or advertising and it takes an awful lot of bad else should here he is talking about now. This is before the Internet but not really before satellite satellite was out there and he saw substitute for participation in that event with satellite broadcasting you just go to the place and participate directly in the sufferings or the events of that area maybe a quick credit scores no but we didn't know and now Credit Karma and other companies of the like are owned by Google. Ah Canton Avian did you ever follow anything that he says I've read everything he is ever written I used him as a basis for a lot of my college papers holy crap it's or whatnot whether this will tend to create a new kind of news I know for example the present time what we automatically think office news how he's going to give us insight into what we're witnessing today on social media which back in the day was called the global village the electronic van landers column Writ Large and it doesn't necessarily mean harmony and peace and quiet but it does mean huge involvement in I wanted to play that here is now this he's also the guy that came up with the the the medium is the message was that his with news today so this is nine hundred sixty seven was three is fifty two years ago this guy was saying this either deconstructing perfectly before it even happened and the best book that he's written that we should read pertaining media understanding media so someone sent me a link to a documentary about him we should know we should know what's going on this is why you don't want install these asked why I was watching TV last night with the keeper and said You know John and I predicted this at least ten everybody else everybody else's affairs and so the global village is as big as a planet and as small as the village post office for example news to sell all that good news that we have to carry in our newspapers and magazines so just think of what he's saying here in relation to what we're seeing I immediate participation in events anywhere in the world ending all news reports what we call a news report is a verbalised h with the information explosion all the walls go out between age groups ethnic groups between family groups nation national groups between economies the walls all go out people suddenly have to adjust themselves to this new proximity this new interrelationship I new village does that go back to the sixties that term came from you guys were smart back then here he is which you don't necessarily have harmony you have extreme concern with everybody else's business and much involvement in everybody else's life it's a sort of mation jobs screwed screw by the way by the way what his deloyed commentary there while reflects on an earlier segment of the the user score based on six criteria personal information volunteer work social connections credit history consumption history and track record we'll villages not created by the motor car or even by the airplane is created by instant electronic information movement the global village you're required to be a part of the the discount program to have the APP the APP tracks you're the apple even know if you're holding onto your phone is this was very astute when I heard this and it made me start to think okay what exactly are we looking for a medium able in the car with use of the accelerometer he knows how fast you're going if you break suddenly it has all this data and oh I'm sorry you're you're exhibiting as if they were there because they witness the video they witnessed firsthand sell that's what he would call satellite now final clip short this is old medium because the old medium is always the content of the new medium as movies tend to be the content of TV and as wants plan there's why does the planet and small little town where everybody is maliciously engaged and poking his nose that everybody else's business the global village is a world no okay problem solved there's your list not go to the drug comes yet list or the Pharmacia list everyone on antidepressants where you got your call from Holland about shootings in Texas as if they should care yup there but in and they witnessed it wrote the book understanding Media Okay so that's definitely a but we have not discussed this book on the show ever that I can recall now I don't think it should be on the no agenda Book List for ah they're always completely unaware of this they don't really notice the new medium that is wrapping them up they think of the so merely to tell them that this has happened doesn't very helpful helpful what they need to know is if it is happening what does it mean to me for example in the matter of autumn but he yeah with this falls into the the conspiracy theory that a man made storms will go out wipe out Jeffrey Epstein's island and listening to Abba they were they were they made us get stone so he couldn't remember anything. Well here's a little jiggling of your handle looks used to be the content novels used to be the content of movies and so every time a new medium arrives the old medium is the content and it is highly observable highly notice for but the real real roughing up massaging it's done by the new medium it is ignored so what exactly is being not give him the hat trick three album arts in a row for episode eleven sixty nine that was titled Hockey Stick Hoax it was just a great collage of buttons including the disgust better dead than red the my other job is a podcast button you trigger me I'm scared and never reboot able news clips netflixing even net flicks netflixing up they do a degree they're creating something new but not really they're still doing the old live check it out for yourself it's free no agenda stream dot com I'd like to say a hardy in the morning to Darah Neil hat trick we how could we so part of something much bigger than the individual parts and maybe that's a good time for me to thank you for your courage and say in the morning to you the content on the new medium repurposing and producing in similar ways till maybe podcasting example of something that was completely new I say well we it was Well I thought nick the rats a we had this calm he had the scooters flying through the air really yeah I'm doing it to stay alive well part of it alive yes just like you fall into it on Mike Riley that was the competitive piece i Mike Riley had a piece that he was very good fun house it was horrible actually it was gruesome apple appeases Oh so a lot of people did the the UN housed with the homeless experience which was like a Disney ride yes in always at least one hundred people in there even the middle of the night they got they're talking they're trolling they're listening to shows and we got a ton of great shows lot of them happened I think Mike Riley did a very good version but it was so once you look at it in smaller format it was just so much going on and there was there was good art but let me just take a look at a lot of stuff but we did have a debate over uh for scooter NATO Oh yeah and then but we decided to use scooter NATO as the opening and then we had to title it something different it was very complicated the dame's tonight's out there in the morning to trolls in the troll room hey trolls how you doing now no agenda stream dot com where you can check in twenty four hours a day seven days a week is looking at it finally crap what is used it was too busy didn't pop yeah yeah the difference was is that the Darrow Neil buttons which were view which is a post modernist form of old medium is exactly what he's talking about which is why we're doing it apiece but it was it was all original art very nice piece make great poster or if you have if you blow it a really big and a- fall into it somebody's gotTa do it I have a feeling everyone who's a part of this value value network as in one way or the other new put the sea in Climate Eraser John C. Boras morning to you Mr Adam Curry also in the morning all ships at sea boots on the ground feet in the air subs in the water simple by comparison like a Mojo yes like a Mo fo mess right and mothers have a lot of is when you think you're done you still have a lot of work after the show everyone's off partying drinking smoking weed we are just choosing art and coming up with Oh that was also very good yeah I thought that was really a wonderful incredibly great piece it wasn't going to look as well as covering was gonNA popular the show that's why artists do we have ten times as much artwork as we done episodes were over fourteen thousand pieces of art no agenda art generator dot com when something like that just POPs out eight helps people listen it makes it reminds people oh something changed. We're one of the few podcasts that adhere to the SPEC as invented Where you change the album Martin I understand is hard we don't have producers but we have thousands of producers many of them do things sense Lou I love the consistent deconstruction you guys bring our e-last episodes commentary on Disneyland Experiencing Homelessness Ride they already have a walk-through ride all you need to do a state one of the Non Disney off perfect trio of of bits too I wanna say that one of the pieces from the show but the camping one yes by operative hotels you walk by people sleeping in under the streets on the streets behind benches people asking for money at Cetera? Sorry it's been a while since my last John you're my idol of technology as a dude named Ben I strive for the same amount of skepticism of tech as you the crank he geek I even have the t shirt nice it's a collectible yeah I would like to I don't even have one I would like I would ask for don't send one I would ask for jobs come but I think it's more important to send good Karma to my son in the army currently stationed in Georgia hoover Washington which is nowhere near Vancouver Canada forgive me Fox well since near but not it's all right it's jumping it was a lot of science it was good very good so thank you for that and these things really help like that many of them help the show in other ways such as supporting financially and we'd like to stop In the first hour and pay some respect better Christopher Nolan Dolan a Dole and Dole and three three three dot five which is to commemorate obviously your birthday Melanson I'm sleeping on the job on whereas the five fifty real it seems his team's only the podcast or able to get me or get the word out about the long-term climate cycles chaser the sanity thank you he didn't ask for it but I'm going to hand out Karma here for that you've got Karma breath and that's vote for sorry about that Sir Dwayne I will be twins twins you got twins go along with our two year old three kids under three at forty no joe thanks for this nice and he's in Cambridge Massachusetts nuts just a happy birthday adam and jobs Karma please jobs jobs and jobs that's Ebben seventy let's people starting with Sir drab Scott of the E. L. be expressed who tops everyone with eleven hundred seventy dollars and fifty it's been awhile since molest donation I'm coming off a long or of coming off of the law of the fog of war of new a loved it in the last episode as it does to three of my as two thirds of my offspring are up in arms about climate changes into our executive producers and associate executive producers and this is for episode one thousand one hundred and seventy two seventy five fifty five from Tiger Oregon. It M Janssen Happy Birthday Atom even though you forgot my jingle I love the hockey Stick Expos Hallandale Beach Florida was Allendale beach looks like it three threes probably acute place three thirty three thirty Lar- The largest vapor trade associations in the space and since departing the organization I've consulted to companies larger and small the tithing that I can offer to the BP it you today podcast nervous with people were unfamiliar with the Code. How do birthday Adam the miles away or something forgive my forgive me podfather for I have bone word for far too long Mike Contribution of five five five five five yet so dwayne Mellon Sano where's are no I didn't I was sleeping sleeping inside Melanson being in the insane media coverage of the alleged lung illnesses I felt it was necessary to set the record straight was on with their background vapor industry is regulated but no vaping projects have been approved by the FDA in fact there's very little there you go you've got James I'm assuming as George of the State Not George of the country I've worked on regulatory and Legislation Vaping issue since twenty eleven I lead what was at the time and still holds the record for the the big donors were celebrating your birthday with the fifty five fifty five to five five to five A. James Anderson five hundred fifty five dollars and fifty cents and sittard an illegal product this is this is actually some interesting news this is content here so to address one of your quotes directly there are no approved and let's see the same data claims jewelers responsible for the epidemic of teen teen vaping lumps in lumped together nicotine based products with marijuana products that have gone through the regulatory process jewelry to routinely gets torn apart by the media the FDA and the CDC in every anti-tobacco group out there jewel has been excoriated they Karma run genetic Cynthia Cabrera in want factual information about the regulatory shit storm is about to destroy the vaping industry please feel free to contact me you know what Cynthia first of all thank you very much for this much everyone so they're not protected or immune from media coverage I don't work for jewel ultra took a thirty percent investment in jewel to the tune of thirteen billion and they don't products like nicotine containing liquids in them for a very good overview and more read this article from sleeping three sixty and as a euro wipe out all vapor products on the market as of May ten twenty twenty any vaping product that has not submitted a PM TA pre-market tobacco application will be says dreadful yeah that's an issue that somebody should address yes after they haven't got anybody on the board which is probably a bad idea as products which are used quite a bit amongst teens it is true that thc cartridge producers do not generally add nicotine to the mix although such product does exist media manipulation the making it sound like there's all kinds of stuff happening but it's behind it well you're so anyway I the so a lot of this has just virtue signaling there's no there's there's no regulation yet so it's all just me large and small I speak routinely at meetings like all like all the annual tobacco conference hosted events by the Food and drug law institutions including their media coverage the vaping illnesses being poorly reported on a largely attributed to synthetic THC or backroom type stuff yes we did say that not vaping it flat base and slamming me in the face okay so let me pick it up in fact there's a very large battle going on who's likely final outcome Oh new jobs Karma Police Ladies and gentlemen presents the Grand Duke at the Pacific Northwest says Wayne Mellon Song own the company Oh crap thirteen billion they only have thirty percent can you believe that in fact they don't even have a board seat and direct no activities jewel three Irishmen listening to your podcast three or four a so ago four so far away she's up to three hundred dollars and thirty three cents after listening to forty that lung damage well I would say this company is behind it because what they're trying to do is you'll yes why not of course it but bad publicity goat Karma especially do here you've got Karma feels good right any becomes up next with two hundred sixty five bucks From Sir Johnny I love what which was a couple years back and so this is good to know and even correcting us on the thirteen billion for only thirty percent of jewel that that would a monstrous company what a monster ORC no cuomo shirt shop blather cast dot com slash. Well well but is she thinks that the whole thing's going to go down the tubes well we're GONNA wind up with is just a few companies who them to the no agenda producing family and thank you so much for your support me hand you a Karma Oh this is new for you so you might enjoy that Johnny B link for link for link for I I lo- I love link for I loved shows deducing spent -duced after hearing Adam's comments on Asian anyway that's the end of that moment of humor sorry it's been awhile since I haven't been to Disneyland scillies for some time whatever came up came up I can't I love New York no yeah this is the one moment that you picked to do the thing where the sun is hitting the base of my monitor your shafts and very little there's no bowel going they said the large battle a large battle Um you want me to realize this is very small here well you might the problem is that but I use it for the newsletter at least push it out there who could could well just because it's dynamite peace yes all those will post dill signs that you see when you go on Don's sure dash short you might not in a way to deal with this reflection I put denied notice I moved over and it's coming it moves as the sun moves like a Obama you could die a happy birthday Adam this is my yearly five dollar a week donation and fifty five dollars for your birthday like money when I was yeah what kind of what kind of thirteen billion dollars around you put some and aboard maybe two people you know they've obviously been successful to give to sixty five k. well and five dollars for your birthday like the car from carceres on hold on a second I did gas g-go request been awhile since we had heard that Gitmo nation national anthem as well and split the end mine queuing nap I think we talk we've been following vapes vaporizing for a long time and went up to the Dallas Convention with with Dexter assured shop blather cast dot com. You're going to have to dig his he did because this is not a Europe as readable right okay mouth together request Cook Travel Karma's they head back to Riyadh this week and Adam thanks again for having supper with us last weekend a lady's got kicked to celebrate nine one nineteen o one of the two guys who's done that as they say family who know agenda together hits people in ago whilst going through a period frustration with the m five m a work colleague Neal's von Kujic smashed me in the city they're going to be the only guys doing it legally when all this is over maybe I thought that I put that in the book for Me Anyway Cynthia thank you gladness birthday from each of us name Isabella in Melody Answer Dave me along with the Pailin Pounder mation back out of hearing your coverage of the evening on the following show I'll bet they did should they were were amused it was a real fifty five he just says Happy Birthday Adam thank you Kevin Bill Watterson and pen trace that's true to to the head Hillary cackle and Karma for good measure sorry not to not forgive me to this re rule tanks or Mr Dave Logan though is here viscount of America's heartland and Saudi Arabia checks in at two hundred fifty dollars and nineteen cents House Nielsen Coke Nears von Calc we'll sense then my new found clarity a fortune to meet I would like to buy donation be added to Neil's account which will bring him two nights status recurs Dave Logan Zodda viscount of America's heartland in Saudi Arabia Day melody and the lovely and talented Dame Isabella and lasting feet lashing I love New York no Cuomo and love New York no Chris isn't that a reference to some sort of a phrase I love you know Homo Not Cuomo can get in I love angles Berry Great Britain ever heard of that no two hundred fifty bucks that's a long ways from here a little over a year got a note from Eric about that and he says a happy to do it but we just need the because you know we don't track everyone's accounting it's the honor system and why wouldn't we were one group we'll have sanctioned products and we kind of figured this out early on is that you know it's going to cost you have to do a million bucks to go through FDA approval per per flavor a little unconventional and a bit brash but I can but can I call out sir ten t ten t pledge allegiance Sir Jack The neal's of end stone creative Oregon doing a great thing Phil Waterson okay well this is not on the list I got it no in the morning happy belated birthday to Adam unhappy actual birthday to me it's my first time in the first half of the show and buddies were just hearing the whole family yes you just had dinner with him Yup donation if the five Cimoli answer product will the the thing that's in there is that this thirteen billion invested in the jewel in and a company that did the investment isn't helping with their pr would just throw let me just let me just throw them Karma and we'll we'll get that Gitmo nation athletes for you you've got Karma into the show that was I was I executive produce excellent I want to say thanks for keeping the keep me sane and the site due sh- bag call outs for sports teams one where the policy side didn't realize that I can I hit the button because you didn't realize the tribute to the birthday jingles he's got some jingles ever reverend Al respect you go Karma and that's true the travel carmen they needed Kevin on Ano- Cabrera baronet Yeah Cabrera couponer kick overnight switch to an extreme far-right God welcome to the Family Phil I'm glad you're here yet you say something global warnings bullshit the river day inside till you of the river dance right she guidance she's a pro we saw video of her dancing cool well let me GonNa say the competitors behind but when I see the media keep picking up the same exact stories virtual press release too you know so we just need meals to send his his numbers in not that we don't believe you we just WanNa make sure that we do it right so of Nielsen Sampling I've since I've since learned learned enlightenment is dangerous in show we have talked about this before he's cheering for the packers over the bears of this guy's a bears fan the bears he says this is suboptimal John Any if only for the fact that tonight he'll be cheering for the OH okay Um football game on tonight because he's GonNa be okay we will hold on a second stop the which is abhorrent when you think about it it is it's ridiculous but troops are not want the rings of well thank you very much John Foley you're on the list for Britanny has jingles getting lunch at spag donate to the no agenda show they don't do that because nobody had the packers the Green Bay packers not one person on that team listens to this show and Caralis talk costs lives probably your own as a symbol of my great gratitude to one of the finest men I I have had bag just you can sur could do be careful he he could do whatever he wants he has to deal with them tonight. Thoughts and reasoning has nearly got me beaten up though what I formerly considered normal people and my friends are astonished at my apparent overnight welcome my friend you've got Karma be careful with them who John Foley out of Chicago two hundred thirty two dollars and fifty five cents which is aw what we're doing it for now because for one thing douchebag in the packers isn't GonNa get as you know he's not going to drive anywhere from the packers all I got about that be commit you were the president of for me right now produce more then I promised early super bowl predictions yeah the rams away the Super Bowl and his time they'll win the that's an early predict rat and sewer chat as Hash browns you're chat tip of the hat to hug story. ps any Obama no no no and Putin don't worry be happy Okay and Putin right Adam did you get to mix I sent I don't know which makes that is I've gotten a lot of mixes to I need to know what the mix was probably that's the song he's trump he's trump the president thank you for your thank you for providing sanity in this insane world shout out to the troll room big ups to Nixon and I don I get to predict anything well you can predict all you want but he didn't ask you but let's back up a second we're not doing assaulted but yeah I don't blame you but I'm just telling everyone out there douchebag a different football baseball teams aaa the tortoise and the race Dasche Signal we've we've much resist we bunch and we will much Nord that is being built with the new medium while everyone obsesses over the old content in the new medium and with that I mean sleep data you've got Karma we play AW ESPN bail all JITTY ESP sat no real conflict this okay for you Scott but also give him a jobs Karma as he continues to seek out his dream job that I know he'll get that's the title he wants we have no tightly wants exactly second religious in abeyance yes but thank you very much in abeyance thank you very much feel Karma for you four dollars and twenty cents cyborg Dave is real name random manning and a random Fletcher ooh ooh David out there and they're and they're proud and living life in Abano no no no stop they're not out there they're here they're in this group were that's true true true I've been listening since the end of two thousand seventeen of sense hit my brothers Scott in the mouth please call him out as a Douche bag hand out I'm not attached to my social media or smartphone just know that there are some aberrations out there are outliers as we'd call them it is a three paycheck month we're jingle requests its trump is trump the president is trump to you know what that is twenty two cents from Tacoma Washington to Lucas Las bits not overboard just trying to get a down payment on a house together however and has it because he has an upcoming interview I'm a thirty year old millennial and hate being called as such I wanna be I don't want Ooh I like the Donald last on the list dude named Craig Fema region five in Warrenville Illinois which I assume as female goyce goose gort goose the G. E. U. S. I don't know how to pronounce that nets necessarily but I do know how to pronounce Ypsilanti Michigan that's where he's from she didn't you know I'm on we're wasn't all ADC's jingles it's another get during the gills at the beginning of this is really interesting that this on this show really the theme but he's looking for that's true a triple that's true that's true such choose to sorry liked that best subject crap ends poorly I should have faded out good one so lewis a loss bits comes in for two hundred twenty five dollars the region five in two hundred bucks John and Adam Itn please deduce me not do plus it's too easy what can we do to truly everybody doesn't it's true my consistent listening has finally you are the ones that are not crazy in all in our here most of them but I do enjoy making fun of it you're not find an exit strategy dude named Craig Fema region five Chicago Land Oh my goodness okay so I sincerely thank you for your courage also I constantly tell my smoking hot girlfriend kristen about subject matter policy yeah January told her about the show and she seemed intrigued and not triggered or annoyed boom yes boom yes of the content thank you for the birthday wishes great showing by our royalty our nights are dame's and some new people this is the way it should be with the exact could it produces an associate executive producer who all deserve the title you've now received as an exotic or Associate Zach of the no agenda show episodes A. and they'd be very happy to hear about it but generally speaking that's a that's not the normal person you run into this is bad policy no no propagate part formula is this we go out for yet people in the mouth would one thousand one hundred and seventy thank you so much wear that badge with pride and know that you are supporting the work that all of us work towards collectively a- and Associate Executive Producers for eleven seventy one of one of the top donation segments that we've done I love Oh care with tinfoil hat stuff talking about the a sniff test sodas yeah you're you're doing it wrong here's hoping and also a Karma for your brother Scott and the that's true that's true that's true jobs jobs jobs and jobs her from the show so give her a shot I'll just to say that means a lot to me that she keeps listening to the to me vent she listened first day this is a bad idea I mean you might get enough clues lie the end of the evening unless she some like Hillary Hater it's about Karma all you gotTa News as the neck includes a list of as a part of our value for value network and we'll do it again on Sunday go to Iraq dot org slash doubt you know more about vaping than most go out there I thought it was interesting that you went back to the ban any TV we played clips from and you pulled more clips from it well I went to the band okay well I've got some stuff that I this was a there's a guy that does kind of a financial oh video podcast host people on Wall Street what I call the I.. R. Departments of China which are the investment banks particularly Goldman Sachs commercial banks the lobbyists for China which is the the show Kristen Chris when we met on our first date I told her about the show okay that's stops. Exporting of Chinese overcapacity Chinese deflation in basic industrial goods in China has from the Chinese point of view has been quite brilliant doing this bent long enough that he's polished his act oh Mike Foale Mike came out of his little holder yes okay you know he's shoved back in the whole we go spec in all right all going to have to be held accountable for what went on in China what China was able to do in in basically coordination with the elites in the West was and I believe within these clips or be at least two or three things you've never known about before and you'll find interesting not necessarily the opening this is kind of a background or more interesting guy he's not quite took he took on Bannon Steve Bannon and Bannon has a very interesting our long spiel that he they've essentially taken three hundred fifty million of their people from kind of working poverty to middle class in four hundred people from abject poverty to working poverty the industrialize the industrial democracies of the West both Europe and the United States that's why Brexit in two thousand sixteen inextricably linked what it is is the so let's play I got a bunch of clips a lot of them are how long are these things are minute half minute there's one that's pretty long her that is just maybe a right wing gun nut and she hit you know this new there are certain women out there that yeah you can talk about the show immediately what trump the recent trump was I think so special he said hey this is not the way the world has to be and just for those who may have forgotten of bank giant Chinese banking and Chinese banking currencies banking and currency exchange currency trading that kind of thing is very gives and I've talked about it before and I've kept wanting to get clips Roy but in this case this guy's was better at drawing ban out his knee excuse me little aspects to this this one is and these are all different discrepant clips don't really connect there's just one different one after another says is for investors most Gezim Kyle Bass I saw this is the guy in the hangar yeah the guy in a hangar known he it's possible that you know maybe you're just a sexy man who you was something had to pursue this guy's got money collapsing is gonNA take luckily because if you listen to these other guys that were not so linked to the banking system over there because the apparently the banks are it's okay from from a from a strategy point of view but that has been exacerbated by the elites in the west of basically kind of finance it in in broader long in fact for informational purposes that's try this one bannon on Chinese students five Defense Department report on the infant this is political correctness and greed and avarice writ large. How did Cossack and time we some students are here on student visas right and the ten thousand contractors that we have the weapons labs that you know up to I think it's two thirds I writ large on this show is not interesting Marshall McLuhan news that in one of his said writ large we don't use it what does this mean it means it means to an extreme and greed and avarice writ large how did contractors cutting edge of national security how did it happen and so this has got to be done right away I don't know why it's been a huge bone of contention inside the administration the political traces of China into our research universities in our lab in a weapons lows weapons labs funded by Darpa the air force and why have why haven't we correctness of it all Stephen Financial Times of London leaked the other day the Mike Colleagues Stephen Miller who's a terrific young man actually had the in an one the one I sent to you was this Chinese guy is the same interview right yes same guy and two guys in expert in the basically the twenty five or thirty largest corporations that deal in China Day they're they're lobbyists in Washington DC these are all all the big private equity guys like Schwartzman these guys Dan in place to get all three hundred thousand Chinese students out of the country right of way to cut the visas off right away not that we're going to execute on it but so essentially two thirds of their of their population because their population I really think is closer to one point three or one point four billion than what they say one point one so what they've done is heroin and thirty but it's good let's try start with the summary Little summary overview this ban bitching and moaning Bannon is the number one guy complaining about China doesn't abandon talk about the South China Sea this is kind of interesting to Oh this is about the dash line yeah a little bit foreign thing I found that was shocking owns a big piece of the Seinfeld show and he has breitbart he is the guy knows he's been around he's got a lot of money and he's been around he doesn't care but he does hate the Chinese in China we only go through what's called safe navigation you go through with your radars off no fire control solutions like a good little boy just kind of go and you're basically kind of they are not prepared the first thing they'll tell you that the territorial integrity and the sovereignty of China is not to be questioned not to be questioned cried that someone like Susan is now owns a farm up in Maine because she was part of this kind of you know rational accommodation est it's kind of Stop Stop Okay let's get some dating advice here yes let's we need to do something to come do not discuss the show on into place a proper people management progress I want you to go back because I don't think people understand these reports these reports of essentially declassified reports that showed that the three hundred thousand call them at Booz Allen and all these contractors had of these contracts on these big government programs get so many Chinese nationals working in our weapons labs are weapons labs the international borders what we want to do when we want to do it because we're the United States Navy okay we keep the sea lanes free what I found out now as it got these res everything roots Yes conspicious attitudes are on many of our colleges they're funded directly by the PLA yeah why do our colleges allows Steve Bannon on the shown Stephan Banyan was the trump's right hand man when he first got into the White House NASA says he's Irascible you never shaves and he's kind of a message the looking guy doesn't keep them care of himself despite his Hollywood underpinnings and he knows the for a while of course during the campaign and then he mostly just kind of an intellectual law Mandy Kinda got ceremony yes yes relation in his claim in general is that it's our bankers are people that that we're all part of making China what it is and he thinks it's a house of cards it's GonNa it was even in the thinking and obviously he got leat in the in the Times it goes around the State Department cetera right look at all the appeasers I am so glad I take great I thought we talked about this big on tin foil hat shows Confucius Alex Jones top one more issue is the Confucius Institute is that the South China Sea when I was a young naval officer we went through the South China Sea guns up radar's up everything moving called free navigation we did in four okay okay let's go on and listen to this one this is kind of interesting distance thing I didn't know anything about the Confucius Institute asking their permission ago the South Carolina I was on the South China they consider they consider when they lost the International Court China considers the South China Sea to be excuse me like the it'd be like in China having something funded by the CIA that was derived the Catholic Church Catholic Church into events so it's it's not it might not like it has to be either I mean I'm Gonna I'M GONNA call you out on this tour Hong Kong I said it's not China proper and by the way we should be doing that really silly gonNA good work we've been doing two intelligence assets in some percentage or intelligence officers and they're working in our labs they're working our leads this weapons funded by our government are protests and they're not riots a couple of notes from producers who said you know yeah okay the extradition bill which now has been cancelled we'll make any difference donald trump don't trust China China is a little tidbit we read about so let's according to bannon insolvent in the whole thing is a mess and it's something but there'd meanwhile they're kicking our ass in different kinds of ways so let's not here's various different affect our sovereignty well how do so give me I've got a practical you got unwind how I think he just sit there and get a shut them down okay I think I don't think there's any way I softness in in the in the Defense Department in the in the State Department in our intelligence services that basically went along with China wanted to look the other way some people do if I do WANNA counter that although not completely in China the National Endowment for Democracy which is what he should have used they believe that that's reality you ask them what's going to happen the South China Sea said on my radio show five years ago being a shooting war journal says the China I know they play this clip box they think it's would they think it's a territorial sea this is something else the rents have risen three hundred percent in five years people are starving they can't you know the shit it's all kinds of corrupt shen there's this whole extradition bill was really about getting corrupt bankers hauled hauled back home to take care of them because the I think this whole thing about you got people saying oh well they're not that bad they're pushing culture and helping students learn mandarin hey the fan financed by the way in Beijing actually pick our bishops of the Catholic Church would not be a distance they've already it'll be equivalent of having CIS deny have a student center that an example is all over Hong Kong and we spent millions of dollars spurring Hong Kong freedom on particularly in the most border just Metaxas shortening for proposed destination based cashflow tax on imported goods also referred to his border adjustment last clip is another obscurity and this is a little interesting one just play the Alaska's Bannon on the bat tax the most elegant idea was the border adjustable tax which is nearly killed no it's Banyan anion varian draw banyan nothing ban in concise ways either that or or Banyan has been and they consider that non dot line the more people put it into documents the more people put it on TV shows the more people that that that reinforce that mean they want because loaded CIA culture right in China that ain't happening okay no what's not happening because the Chinese say that's kind of that's not going to happen because all of Hong Kong is one big scam it's a big financial scam the way I read it in Hong Kong the whole China's a complete scam these guys yes but when you when you're living in Hong Kong you getting a taste can a- taste da course they doesn't behoove them doesn't do a lot of people where it was a bunch of theirs it's really like you were born and you had nothing to do with the agreements go away I I understand the problem in Hong Kong was first introduced in one thousand nine hundred seven by collumnist Alan Auerbach who believes that Texas and would be in line with business goals national interests distinct was killed by the coke brothers is about citizens united and the coke brothers into the picture when neither one of those groups do I didn't think or the cobras not the Catholic Church and the Catholic church is kind of deal to let no no but there's a huge issue Pope Francis just cut a deal that lets the atheist that run the the regime we all know why got crushed I think that that is something that should be brought back up in very quickly in future years we could do away with tariffs if we are in a poster board of Justice Uh in good faith with the American public even though they you know they're libertarians and they have all these ideals and David Koch dies two weeks ago there's no you gotta explain the border adjustable tax I'm not quite sure Neil you'd ask yes I don't understand more importantly it seems to me who crushed it so I'd do a little research if you're that one yes in fact the coke brothers huge supporters of PBS news hour and everything in between and yes they should have given them a tribute but offers you go to the store and they have one of these products have to pay this tax you pay a with the bat tax border just tax depending on where the good is actually destination tax our border tax adjustment in this scenario exported goods are exempt from tax while imported goods sold in the United States or subject to the tax so there's no tariffs is just the tax it's the same thing it's the same damn thing it's not no terrorists are terrorists are before you pay in this case the You and I both know who I love I love that was in my opinion now by the way I am I am a huge believer that and it's if you did they talk about the the liquidity issues with the banks of the big banks for all the Big Bang Chinese banks consol so it's like a VAT tax only for certain products it's it's exactly like a VAT tax for imports oh well that's on out because it has been suggested support is really called a border adjustment tax is the bat and I'll read from Invest Topa Invest torpedoes you look at the price and you're curious thing I bet you with the tax added to the bottle of wine is still going to be cheaper than you're going to get it in France prospectives there's no thank you from pbs that I saw for supporting key was the big PBS support. Yes yes it's not but now it's just edges German if you look at a Mercedes for instance parts of America and some of its Chinese and those those are broken down on new vehicles I do not for example you know they're going to put the tax on cheese and wine from France at some point do that yeah of course so you got your bottle of wine and action to add to the mix but adds a little barrier to entry for the product but at the same time it gives you a realistic look at how values this product never supported him and they've never given their money even though apparently whatever they give their money to they win but they didn't all the stuff about citizens united it didn't affect trump one where the half of corporations ship tries to and then it gets complicated when you go back and forth with car parts and stuff like that but it's pretty much been worked out the cobras were were sending all their money against trump and says you can't associate trump with the coke brothers because they don't like him and server rooms in the few institutes fs going all this is going to be shot in America paperwork here's what the American people don't know this because nobody reports it no is getting these be if we have I questioned whether we really have much influence on these riots well the pro I got to tell you that I got the Bro we don't have brothers there's there's actually a couple other brands but that does not funny so it's coke bro but yeah and that's in in in Europe the prices advertised always include the value added tax so I don't think it's a brief break here and go to Ktla's reporter on the spot which had to reach out to the man who died in this pursuit They were unavailable for clued x percent of Bat. Yeah we'll be at yeah apparently a lot of people like descended it's been good to me Eddie well you can buy this product or by this imported product and he is we have to pay extra because it's imported yeah that's that's an interesting piece of what in fact is very uncommon in the United States where you buy something and then this who and there's five five cents sales tax I'm politicos and the coke brothers and yeah the coke brothers they'll come up into conversation must because everyone still tries to you know they they try to bring this the Democrats tried to bring this nonsense now of course not but the guys are like questioned sketchy but okay whatever I don't care now but not just for a second back to the for that and so they are those bits are taxed differently but that is before the consumer sees it so it's an interesting idea I must be against this kind of like you know Paul Ryan and I've had a differences when I I I do that said that's the solution exactly right that's the solution Galateri way of going at it I think I think comment Michael Back to you watch your when you that that well it's a single piece of B. A. T. instead of a value added tax would be a border adjustment tax that's a Jew automobiles they actually they do know exactly what percentage and look at Andrea Mitchell he's older they're married aren't they married Oh yeah interesting to me but he's he was always a little the other and so you see the conversation has dropped a little bit about it but there bring it back in but they're not working in Mumber and she's on CNN CNBC so there's not a conflict of interest in this case so he's under CNBC shows and they're talking about concomitant KTLA on the seat everybody yeah it was so banning if you get to see these these long lectures if you can find this one this is a good one to watch it's an hour and the economy because that's what he's supposed to to understand and then this negative interest rates which we've discussed on the show which is taking place in in multiple countries a I didn't I did not expect it to be clip of the day but I'll take Alan Greenspan made a rare appearance around the world certainly in Europe which in an odd way means if you if you put money in the Bank to save you actually have to pay the interest and Jimmy then for Mr Greenspan headline that you were talking about the idea of negative interest rates potentially happening in this country do you think that's something possible eight cents sales tax and that gets added on at the end in Minnesota so you wouldn't necessarily it would just be more expensive and they could specify Oh this how her value twenty years from now for thirty years as they age and they WanNa make sure that they have the resources Sept yes gonNa say he's ninety three then he's still pretty chipper actually I'm all in I'm give him this is look I didn't recognize I would get that thank you just to stay on sorry I you get that's no no no with this guy bass and it's online is such a year ago year and a half Kyle Bass I think his name is Bass Yeah well let's take oh it's linked to it's a youtube video dot edited that I can tell makes total sense we tried to reach out to the man who died in this pursuit they were points yeah well what's Greenspan said he thinks it won't may not even take that long problem liquidity drops like a rock as you approach the Ford pay me we have a pretty low interest rate on her house but it can only get better I'm thinking refi refi pay me quite visually has a population goes down and you see pretty much throughout the world it's just a matter of time before it's more golden that's no fun it sounds good on paper and it's it's always was very simple process but more recently you know they talk about all that interest rates housing should do this and that Don CNBC and he had some comments now we we think he's the guy who is that guy I'll old how old and people are recognizing the dying off at a much later date originally contemplated when they started to save and as the album between where I am now a negative interest rate there's going to be someone give me something cheaper I presume maybe maybe not you might be surprised how hard it is to get refi take that if you borrow money the money if you borrow money to buy a house they actually pay you or you don't have to pay the whole thing back which is just a phenomenal how do you think you could actually visit our sources well well hardly likely that it's been you know for deliver Japan you can see I don't know I I I am drawn to I'm sure I'm wrong semi sounds good to meet you now we're promoting it we make to keep themselves in place that is clearly fundamental for that's driving this but we don't know how far it'll go how far chairman Greenspan do you think it could be zero interest what does that mean them as the banks aren't going to give you that loan that you can do your refi with us not going to get it I mean you could emit ideally result of that governor to pick up fairly creek we lacked the US treasury very year yield is trip terrifically useful I'll say off said to the other things that are going on the throne out that's essentially but people are looking for basically resources which they know are going to taken X. amount say one hundred thousand dollars and then they send interest rate so they're just chipping away at it and put in their own coffers now gonNA loan it to you so that would cause Orca it's a real time the question the reason one of the reasons that gold price is rising assassins fifteen hundred dollars the United States I think the issue here is watched the thirty year treasury. I'm GonNa tell you what happened all right I'd be if so what would it signify well first of all what it signifies release of the world population is aging housing crisis because no one can get alone by a house and then we could cause a housing Panama we I know the answer no no firmly in atomic habit and gives my life a what's an atomic habit and gives my life so much balance ah you can't shake the money loose from these guys facet he's definitely not gonNA shake it loose there's negative interest rates because the banks are making money because you know the see for a moment Joe Kernan who is the kind of the older he's not even that old but the older host on that morning show and he who seems a little all hell to break loose and you're gonNA need a Bitcoin bitcoin son I stay with C. N. B. to change take all your money and put it in I have been stacking sats for quite a while okay good ever since I proclaim to be a maximalist I do that it's you know we you and I have an agreement we don't take Bitcoin as donations but I certainly convert you know a little bit every month a little bit I convert into bitcoin generation of people who have faith in the Internet they have faith in these crypto currencies that's all it takes the reason why people believe in the US dollars because they have faith blockchain can't be broken into no it can be anything has created by man can be broken into and it could create a big crisis it's very careful in Blockchain Okay Mr Techno wizard I think this is a seminal clip both of those mark mobius famous investor and he gets into this short exchange about bitcoin and you know what is it worth what happens is currencies that have inherent value like digital gold do you think bitcoin for example has inherent value crypto currency that is really backed by they both end up realizing that holy crap bitcoin is not that much different from anything else that were peddling on this channel you think that there are mm-hmm I was supposed to go a little better than that has realized while they were talking that's why he threw in some blockchain nonsense at the end that they're full of shit the dollars no more or less dependable than bitcoin gold and that is there is a meaningful agreement and some kind of monitoring of this connection then this you think people are going to begin to realize that this is a very very risky situations and by the way I believe blockchain is a very high risk situation allowed people's this Friday's meet up three hundred kilometers nice good good on you I started doing it around thirty nine hundred when when I maximized then where we look at where we are today so that's triple the money yeah you in fact I would argue it's less dependable because a bunch of Yahoo Jubran he's in charge of stuff I like that clip but you really honestly believe that this is a row Max Max Max sincere we all know maxis Toshi leave it where it is so this is happy birthday guy it was either that or the I think it was Richard Sir salver in Silver Spring Maryland no quickly she's a dame after all Dame Andrew and Sarah Kelly are driving three hundred kilometers to the Calgary meet up we want more southern Alberta Producers imbues the the asset with inherent value which is which is why they call it digital go but I mean we we seem to be okay and a lot of Fiat currencies that aren't backed by gold you know I I don't know the full faith in credit to the government but nothing's backed by gold anymore except me it comes to one oh one oh you're right well there you go fishery bucks fifty bucks now I'm very happy I think it's it's a seminal some little clip eighty five to say happy birthday to Adam but not dame andrea she came up with one hundred ten dollars in Rocky Mountain House in Alberta uh with the hands they can buy something so the degree to which a cryptocurrency can enable you to buy something and you believe that to be the case then it's it's fine but birthday to Adam happy birthday to me in total is wrong well but he has fifty five for my birthday and forty six for his birthday yeah which doesn't come to ninety one okay I mean why why why would we don't have any faith in any currency then no the bottom line is that they were yet a few people thank for show eleven seventy I wanted to start and I'm going to give you I'm going to turn it over to you when we get down onto the tanks happy birthday Adam or is this a pretty good list we got a lot of people that came in with fifty five fifty five or fifty five Jon Rubin a hundred bucks no comment Paul Arson New and he wants he says please help Darren O'Neill become a Knight Fellow Nights Schiphol Schiphol is I guess still where if he still does anything there you probably would know Paul von Carter Larr what is this he says I haven't listener donated much lately wanted to make up poem like some work it okay he's got some Karma coming at the end Sir Brian Fifty five dollars donors and you will thank them for stink for them saying happy birthday because you're taking it from here yes I will drawer Bonna from Illinois not a trusted into Ger Ninety one and he's all he's this is the one where he says okay this guy was saying yes a dialect part of the Netherlands we have Ralph Massaro parts unknown Stewart's by the way stop breath came later note saying oops Sir Brian Loss in white night of the Rainbow Nation fifty five sixty it was more like a semi Ralph Massaro I mentioned him thank you Stewart Faucets or Zenana Mus He is in Liverpool two hundred dollars by Richard Hillenbrand ninety one nineteen and I believe is either him or somebody else who would try to spin off to defy for your happy birthday so he's well thank you very much Peter Chong Lakewood Washington and he wants them Karma as well Arthur go bets from the Netherlands Christopher Astra client came in late dame astroid dame master yes and she comes in with happy birthday she's actually the best pitch in and help Darren to rise the knighthood so we assume that this hunter boxes for darrow neal's knighthood okay Google never says that someone else truckin comes in org happy birthday long lives the best host of the best podcast in Universe thank you very much he's known as through could you Ryan Benson New York Sir Geoffrey Pro of the rock wall happy birthday from fellow September baby we figured out why so many people celebrate a bird they in September try this on for size happy new year kind of explains it so now I know my parents were doing the I from Liberal Kansas thank you very much Andy Watts he says thank you for your courage Carolyn Blaney this is from the Hog cast I believe from Toronto now I know watch this show I have no idea whether he believes that are not more than what I can see people doing it I mean there's a lot of true believers on the Bitcoin I mean you do I think Max is Eric Eric via the valley he's he's a barone he says Happy Birthday in awe kittens yes they always worked Jonathan as we don't air from the friendliest podcast in universe hug story hosted by John Fletcher and Carolyn Blaney Happy Birthday Adam we love you way to get a plug in you're doing well for your birthday party did you did you sit in a bunch of chairs against the wall and stare at each other like they do in Holland I didn't have enough people to make a full Sir shod Thorpe fifty five fifty five Michael US asked flock talk last fall South Carolina anonymous that keep me anonymous we'll do sir own guy happy birthday you talented A one guy happy birthday you talented Mo fo Dave Bozeman in Wilmington North Carolina Sam Godwin in San Jose Mason Berryman in Marietta Georgia I Thomas hit Holler these fifty five leave he's in Austria Edward Chicken Chidgey in the United Kingdom's Raymond thank you for the constant infusion happy birthday infusion of sanity into mind my family lives William Geffen is gifted William Gaskin from thank you feel Coburn Wamu New South Wales fifty five years yes indeed thank you very much James Gilchrist Candida and there's a bunch of people I will say that tried to get into with different kinds of monies and then there was like turn out to be K. Mike Rinker rinker Ren- occur in Dubuque Iowa Sir other brother from Norman Oklahoma Joseph aim statea thank you very much Roy Stran- str Strahan from Australia and that was Karen s of the Bush's James Yes of Japan and all the disputed islands of the Japan sea don't say China Japan see the Japan sea gene from Graham Washington. Larry Hey mooresville North Carolina Clark Wallis Saint Thomas Ontario Sir night of the East Holy Crap Nice those kind of a happy birthday thing and so as Chuck Barnett to defy fifty five from we've real North Carolina the Wifi night on Chappel fifth hole it'd be interesting that would be that would be a no then is what you're telling me because there are people that think blockchain itself the Japan see Japan saw Japan's e Japan Z's yet Japan Japan's he's can't stand ya things dude goes on forever my goodness Sir Chris from Arlington yes Sir Sir James Kilo Fox said Oh by donate to know agenda imagine all the people who could do that'd be fabulous birthday baronet Chris of the north of North Austin happy birthday almost three years ahead of you with mine in October please pass Karma to my worthy citizen we'll do baronet Chris of North Aurora Roland Ruth in Parts Unknown Ray Fleischmann coral springs no jingles no Karma Miguel Ortiz have a wonderful Georgia David Walsh Carrara Queensland Australia Nicholas Hannah in Indianapolis Indiana Carina cut cut Tina Catania Korean or Chris Willis Hinders Hendersonville Tennessee Yancey summerer in Houston Texas Greg Alexi Brad King fifty-five vast sounds dumb dumb arosh September third my birthday to turning forty to add to the birthday list. Yes honey Serena isn't Serena idols arena this is hard Serena Montagnier Serena Catania drew sample fifty five dollars as well John Tennessee of we have birthday included but a lot of these aren't going to I'm not going to get to John Anyway I just I just I just WanNa read her donation he will become a baronet and he has a title change coming appropriately John Hall from El Paso Sir Craig Porter Portland Oregon Seventy Three's to you November seven even parts unknown Sir Christopher Baron of Buckeye from Buckeye Arizona of course Matthew Genesis Ski Chicago Illinois Doc or Lex Alexia Alexia Cayo blank In Houston Jason Dolan John Tierney Dame's unle parts unknown Scott Moore also Parts Unknown Era Darrien Cer- era darrien from California Melissa chastain Post BERTHEL will put you on lady Dain Happy Birthday love and light from Lady Dane Tag Lander from Kirkland Washington Sir Josh Mandel Greenville Thirty Three Steven Schnabel a fifty five ten double nickels on the dime but it's also a fifty five so it's got that in there and now we have all the Kevin Hotel Victor Quebec in Las Vegas Chris yes Sir Chris Arlington Virginia Sir James Did that Michael Henry in Snowville I broke Shara Barks are shower Barak from Ontario fifty five for the podfather fifty