36 Burst results for "March. 2020"
What Bitcoin Did
A highlight from Bitcoin vs the Infinite Money Printer with Luke Gromen
"They're not going to cut the entitlements. They're going to print the money. And they're going to print the money with oil at 90. They're going to print the money with Bitcoin at 35 ,000. They're going to print the money. They're going to print the money. Happy Monday. How are you all doing? Did you have a good weekend? I did. OK. Real Bedford. They won on the weekend and were top of the league. So that is Real Bedford men and Real Bedford ladies both at the top of their respective league. What a start to the season. We've both got massive cup games this weekend. Get anywhere near Bedford and you want to come down, especially on Saturday, because before the men's game at 12 o 'clock, we've got a meet up. And I'm going to be joined by Robert Breedlove. So please do come down to Bedford. Come down to McMullen Park, enjoy some football, enjoy some Bitcoin, and hang out with the man Breedlove himself. Anyway, welcome to the What Bitcoin Did podcast, which is brought to you by the massive legends at Iris Energy, the largest NASDAQ listed Bitcoin miner using 100 % renewable energy. I'm your host, Peter McCormack. And today, we've got macro genius Luke Gorman back on the show. Now Luke is one of our absolute favorites here at WBD. Me, Danny, and producer Ben all love Luke, and he brought the fire this episode. We get into the infinite money printer, the bond market getting crushed, inflation, and social unrest in the US. We covered the lot. I know you're going to love this one, but if you've got any questions about this, any feedback, anything else, please do hit me up. It's hellowhatbitcoindid .com. And if you haven't checked out our event next year in April, Cheat Code, please head over to cheatcode .co .uk to get yourself a ticket. All right, on to the show. Luke, how are you? I'm doing well, Peter. How are you today? Yeah, I'm doing well. I do wonder if we'll ever jump on one of these calls. We do every six to 12 months and be like, yeah, do you know what? The economy's good. The banks are making good decisions. The government's doing well. It has no inflation. The world's all right. That would be nice, you know, we could all go to the beach and have a margarita or something. Yeah, it's a bit weird. It seems like everything's just getting worse. We had planned all these things to talk about and just while Danny was setting up the cameras, I was flicking through, I hate saying X, I'm going to keep it to Twitter. And our mutual friend Linaldin tweeted out that the Treasury expects to borrow nearly 1 .6 trillion in net new debt during the six month period covering this quarter and the next quarter. Is there no limit to how much money they're going to borrow? It seems like the bond market is maybe making the early noises about attempting to restrict what they can borrow without Fed help, but it's really ultimately a function of what's the dollar, what's the bond market doing, what's the dollar doing? It's that classic rates versus currency decision. Can you explain that? Can you walk us through that? What is the bond market saying and explain it so I understand. Sure, so there's sort of the case for most places and then there's a case for the US because where the reserve currency is sure. And you also have this giant offshore dollar borrowing market, right, the euro dollar market, but there's 13 trillion dollars in offshore dollar denominated debt according to the BIS. So means that the implications of that are that as the dollar goes higher, so the Fed raises rates, the dollar goes up, dollar goes up, the foreigners who have borrowed in dollars see their effective borrowing rate go up, the cost of servicing that dollar debt goes up and so they need to somehow raise dollars. Well, they can't print dollars like the Fed, so where do they get their dollars from? Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on which side of it you're on, foreigners have run surpluses against the United States by virtue of how the system works for a long time and particularly in the last 25 to 30 years. And so foreigners have about 18 trillion dollars net, so I don't want to say it's closer to 40 trillion gross, but I think it's 18 trillion dollars net in US dollar assets more than we have of theirs. It's this net international investment position I've talked about. So they have 18 trillion dollars of dollar assets, about seven point six trillion of that are Treasury bonds. And so, yes, they are short dollars, but only to the extent they are unwilling to sell treasuries to get dollars or sell stocks to get dollars to defend. And so what you see is this virtuous or vicious, I guess it is vicious cycle where the dollar goes up. Foreigners are forced to sell treasuries that rates go up as rates go up, the dollar goes up. You wash, rinse, repeat until we either get a calamity or more likely more. The way it's worked really increasingly frequently is the US Treasury market gets dysfunctional. And there's an index we follow called the move index. It's the volatility of the Treasury markets created by a gentleman named Harley Bassman who pointed out once that index goes over 150, the Fed has lost control of the bond market. And October 3rd of this year, it was 141. All of a sudden, everyone and their mother on the Fed came out and said, well, maybe the bond market's done our job for us. Maybe we're done raising rates. They tried jawboning the dollar down. It's it's sort of worked. It's stopped the dollar going up like every day, but it's it hasn't really gotten the dollar down. But that's ultimately as it relates to this situation for the US that as long as the dollar's going up, given this massive offshore dollar denominated debt and this US massive dollar asset net position that foreigners have that they can sell to get dollars. Ultimately, it's sort of all fun and games until the Treasury market loses an eye. And once the Treasury market loses an eye, the volatility gets to a point where it is indicating that the Fed is losing control of the Treasury market. That has been the point over the last four years. Where the Fed steps in and says no mas and at that point, they kind of say, well, it's not QE, we're growing our balance sheet, but it's not QE. You know, Jackson Hole, a couple of guys gave a speech that said it was a presentation. It was, you know, it's possible the Fed might have to do non -monetary policy purchases of treasuries. But it's important that we sort of lay that out that, you know, it's it's almost like, you know, those are those are trading sardines, not eating sardines. It's it's, you know, they're printing money for for market functioning reasons, not for monetary purposing reasons. And the market's not going to care. But that's ultimately that do they want if they want the Treasury market to function really well, given these levels of debt, they need the dollar to be a certain level lower than it is. If they want the dollar here, then they're going to need to restrict how much they're trying to borrow or be willing to lose control of the bond market and the Treasury market specifically. I'd like to pretend like I just understood all of that. I would. I really want to say I pretend I can understood all of that. But but it sounds complicated for the layman like me, the everyday guy, I can't interpret what that means. So basically what it means is unless the Fed prints the money to buy the rate down, then the rates are going to go up on the government until the government until rates ostensibly extremes inform the means. In theory, we the bond market could run away and then all of a sudden. The in theory, you can get to one hundred percent of your revenues in interest expense, nobody, nobody for anything else, in which case either the Fed prints the money or we say, sorry, Ukraine, sorry, Israel, sorry. Everywhere we're bringing our boys home. And in fact, they have to book their own tickets because we don't have the money. And boomers, you're on your own. I know we promised you hip, sneeze, drugs, docs, all that, but sorry. All we have is money is to pay the interest. So this is an issue of supply and demand in bonds. And the big risk is they cannot afford the interest on the debt they have themselves, because what is it like 30? Where are we at now on the debt? Thirty three trillion themselves? Thirty four. High interest rate is so it becomes unaffordable themselves. It's the only way to see that is it's more QE. Yeah, that's exactly I mean, it's ultimately a supply demand problem of of debt versus not just existing debt, new debt, and then also against the supply of balance sheet. Right. There's only so much global private balance sheet that can that the capacity to buy the stuff and continue to hold the old stuff and the balance sheet capacity increases as the dollar goes down, it decreases as the dollar goes up. And ultimately, that balance sheet capacity has repeatedly needed to be supplemented by the Fed's balance sheet, which is infinite. They can buy as much as they want. They will never run out. The flip side is, is that has implications for the dollar because you're effectively printing money to finance deficits. But if they do do that, would it be a case if they're trying to bring down the interest rates and they're using QE to do this? Isn't this just the cycle we've been going through over and over again? This will lead to more inflation and more inflation will lead to them having to raise interest rates again. You know, isn't this just a cycle that gets worse every every time we go through another cycle of this? Yeah, oh, it's to me, it's been a very it's a very I think it is the most important macro cycle. It's a very obvious cycle. In 2014, global central banks stopped growing their holdings of FX reserves. And what that means in plain English is foreign central banks stopped adding to their supply of treasuries. So if if one of your biggest marginal buyers stops buying, somebody else needs to buy. And as that happens, a couple of things, a couple of things happen. Number one, the dollar starts going up and number two, rates start going up. And that can manifest given the omnipresence of the dollar and the centrality of the dollar to the system that shows up a lot at different places. But dollar up rates up. And we've seen this sort of at first we regulated the banks in 2014 into, you know, it's a little bit like the cracks in the dam. Right. So the first crack in the dam is like, OK, foreign central banks are buying the debt anymore. OK, what are we going to have by what we have regulate the banks into doing. So they do that. And that works for a while. And then because the supply of water, which is U .S. federal deficits, just keeps growing and growing and growing. Right. Inevitably, the pressure from the water growing, growing another crack, money market funds. We're going to regulate them into that was 2015, 2016. Again, both of these things crowd out global dollar markets. They send LIBOR short term rates up. Then you end up driving the dollar up to levels that start creating problems around the world. What do we do? We weaken the dollar in 2016. We weaken the dollar in 2017 with the Treasury general account. Basically, the Treasury's checking account starts to inject our liquidity to kind of manage this process. 2018, more cracks, especially now that the Fed's QTing in earnest. We start regulating Trump, regulated U .S. corporate pensions into buying more treasuries, gave him a tax break. OK, now we've got our thumb in the in the in the wall. So and, you know, 2019, we get another crack with repo rate spikes. OK, oh, now the Fed has to step in. Now the Fed's growing their balance sheet. But it's not QE. It's just fixing the fact that repo went from two to eight overnight because there's too much supply of water and not enough demand for the water that kind of holds. That breaks again in March 2020 at the depths of the covid crisis. The Fed does mega QE. They call it QE. OK, leads to inflation. 2022, we're going to start backing off, we're going to tighten. They get, you know, whatever they really start getting aggressive in March, April of really tightening. And by September, the UK gilt market blows up. Uh oh. They all get together in Washington in October of 2022. And they give Janet Yellen, what we used to call on the desk, a hey MF 'er conversation and Yellen comes back and runs on the TGA. The dollar goes down 15 percent, buys time. Another, you know, so it's just this you it is a constant cycle that started 10 years ago, but it keeps getting faster and faster. Right. That 2014, we regulate the banks. We worry about it again to like 2015, 16 with money markets. And even then, you know, you didn't have to worry about the the dollar was not too high in that case till 2016, 2017 and had to be addressed. Then it was already end of 2018. The Fed had to stop raising rates. Then it was September 2019. Then you kind of covid sort of screwed up the pacing of it in terms of of getting a clean apples to apples read. But since then, it's accelerated, it's September 2019, you had March 2020, you had September as soon as they started raising rates, March 20 or September 2022, March 2023, September 20 or October 2023. Now, it just it's getting faster and faster. And so, yeah, it is really it fundamentally the problem is very simple, way too much U .S. deficits, not enough global private sector balance sheet unless the Fed is in there helping to buy this stuff of printed money. That's at the end of the day, that's it. That's the problem. Is it essentially paying off your credit cards with a new credit card? Absolutely. While the rates going up on it, if the Fed does step in and start buying bonds in that way, does the U .S. just turn into Japan? Japan? No, we turned into Argentina. Japan, Japan is. Night and day different than the United States in this situation, right, so Japan is a net international investment position, remember, so I said we have foreigners own 65 percent, that 18 trillion, 65 percent of US GDP. So the U .S. net international investment position is negative. Sixty five percent of US GDP. Japan's is positive. Sixty percent. So for starters, when Japan runs into that problem, the first thing they can do is ring, ring, ring, hey, Washington, it's Japan. Those dollar assets we have to the tune of 60 percent of of our GDP, we want to start selling five percent a year because we need to finance our our fiscal deficit of three percent a year and do two percent of stimulus. And they can do that for a long, long time. That's number one. Number two, they run a current account surplus, right, their trade surplus. So they are running the surpluses on the current account versus us running deficits. We need number three. OK, the deficits we're running, the twin deficits historically have been foreign financed. They have financed internally. So you can run you if you're financing internally as Japan, deflation is an option you're when you're financing internally. Right. Because now you can pay your people, you know, zero percent interest on long term bonds because the cost of living is fear and deflation. Your cost of living is falling. Living standards are rising politically. That works. You cannot do that when you're in the United States. If you're financing externally, you start running deflation as a twin deficit. You get into a debt spiral. Your debt pile gets bigger and bigger and bigger nonlinearly every year. And pretty soon you run into debt credibility issues. You also, as Japan, do not have to provide most of your defense because your friends, the United States, have provided it for most of the last 80 years. We have to provide our own defense and that defense appears to be getting much more expensive by the minute. And then lastly, the United States is very heterogeneous in population. And Japan is very homogeneous in population. So it's a lot easier to sort of get people to sort of, you know, go along to get along and take one for the team. Culturally, there's much more of a willingness to take one for the team. I think their government has probably all in all done probably a better job of maintaining their credibility or maybe losing their credibility less fast than ours has with its domestic populace, maybe a better way of putting it. And so when you roll those things together, but especially the net international investment position, the current account, you know, Japan can say ring ring Washington send us our money. We need it to finance ourselves. And that throws that, you know, sell treasuries. We're going to bring back the dollars and defend the yen with those by selling dollars and buying yen. And they can do that for a while. They have 60 percent of GDP in that area. There is no there is no ring ring for the U .S. The ring ring. They don't call anybody overseas. The ring ring is, hey, Fed, start printing again. And when you say when they have to do that again, whenever that is, because they're going to have to do that again. Yeah, then that's why it gets much more into an Argentina like dynamic. And as I've said, Argentina with U .S. characteristics, not Japan is what is going to be the outcome. I was out in Argentina recently, was it three or four months ago, Danny? And I made a documentary while I was there about inflation. And one of the interesting things about being in Argentina is if you're certainly in the middle class, you have access to dollar products, whether it's cash dollars or digital dollars or crypto dollars or U .S. equities or U .S. bonds, you have access to dollars to mitigate against inflation. And most people just get rid of their peso and get some kind of dollar products as soon as possible. But if if you're an American, there is there is no equivalent. I mean, yes, there's gold and yes, there's Bitcoin. And, you know, we've seen this rise in both gold and Bitcoin recently. Perhaps that's it. I mean, is that it? The short answer is yes. You know, you can kind of see right who is who has won over the last 10, 20 years in the U .S., right? It's if you if you own a lot of stocks, you're doing great.
Tech Path Crypto
Fresh update on "march. 2020" discussed on Tech Path Crypto
"But no, I don't think that we see it fully priced in until we have a new all time high personally. So, I've talked to a handful of traders, we've been on calls this week, last week, everybody's kind of pointing at this $50K target. In terms of a price prediction, if you look at early January, let's kind of run through the Santa rally, most likely we'll probably see a little bit of movement here toward the end of the year. My question is, what is your price prediction? How is your chart lining up for Bitcoin, say, in the first two to three months of 2024? Yeah, I'd love to share a chart here and my thoughts, let me pull this up. So Bitcoin chart right here in front of us, I really like doing this lately, just looking at $23K. It really brings me good energy. I'm a little worried because a lot of people, you're right, are saying $48K, $50K. And not to gloat, but last year, before this year even started, I was looking for $48K. So it's, I guess, comforting, but a little scary that many analysts are looking there. And I really see this playing out maybe one of two ways. We're already sitting at $38,500. This was basically the only monthly resistance we have from back in February of 2022. Above us is that $48,000 to $50,000 level. And I do think that we could see that even this year. I don't like to get too FOMO-y on people, but I think it is entirely possible that in December we see a rally up there. But I do have a little caution. So I was looking for $48K at the start of this year, but I unfortunately was looking for something else afterwards. And this is the kind of scary part. Just kind of equating this to the last bull run or bear market into bull run. We had that March 2020 sell-off, which was really extreme, and I think that's sitting with a lot of people right now. I think a lot of traders that were here in the last cycle are looking for a repeat. I'm not really on that boat because I think that would take a really catastrophic global black swan event to happen again for Bitcoin to go and potentially trade back to like $15,000. But what we've seen in Bitcoin's previous bull runs is large corrective moves that typically are very fast on the way up. It reminds me a lot of maybe 2016, where we saw 30%, 40% wicks, and maybe 24 hours price caught back up and continued rallying. So I think we will see some kind of corrective phase. Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to happen right now. I think that we're going to see that $48,000 first. And really, I think that we could see a shakeout that brings us down maybe to the low $20s. I would say, from a game theory, kind of just mental game of thinking about price action, I ask people what price would make you very excited and think, OK, the bull run is back. I was wrong. I'm going to buy back in, you know, whatever cover. And roughly $50,000 is that number. It's very psychological. You can almost see it in your head. The news lines, Bitcoin above $50,000 again, everything's great. I think that's going to be kind of the pivotal turning point there, where everyone jumps back in, then we see that corrective move. And where would that be that you would kind of say, I was totally wrong again, I got to get back out. I think that's below $25,000. It's a really volatile move and I kind of hope it doesn't happen. But until proven otherwise, I'm looking kind of for about $50,000 and then back into maybe the lows of September. Whatever the move is, I think it's going to leave people unsatisfied. The people looking to buy a dip aren't going to be able to buy there because they've already kind of made that mental, I'm going in, it's time. They're more likely to sell off on that dip. And I think that's just kind of Bitcoin's nature, you know, shaking the weak hands out.
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
A highlight from Crypto Couple: Making Bitcoin Fun, Affording Life and Family, Girl Boss Culture, AI, Bitcoin in 10 Years
"We realized, all right, let's see if we can try to take some of this knowledge that we are now gaining and put it into bite -sized forms, because that was also a great way for us to learn more, because trying to explain something in 60 seconds requires you to really know that. Hello and welcome to the Coin Stories podcast, where we get to explore the future of money, business, technology, and Bitcoin's revolutionary promise to boost economic prosperity around the world. I'm Natalie Brunell, and I'm here to learn with you. This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only. None of the discussions should constitute as official investment advice, and you should always do your own research. Please make sure you're subscribed to the show and hit that notifications button so you never miss out on any new episodes. This show is made possible and the content is free thanks to partnerships with companies I trust, and I'm very picky about who I choose to partner with, so I hope you take the time to listen to the ad reads throughout the show. Thanks for joining me, and if you're watching this on YouTube and want to see more videos like it, make sure to hit that like button. All right, it's time for the show. Welcome back to another episode. I'm so excited because I have two of my friends on this episode. Really excited to share Carla and Walker, better known as The Crypto Couple. Thanks so much for joining me. Thanks for having us. Thanks for having us. Okay, I want to hear a little bit about where you guys are from and how you became two of the funniest people and the most well -known in the space with your amazing videos. We kind of share similar Midwest roots and a little bit of the Eastern European flair between me and Carla. So tell me both of you a little bit about where you're from and how you grew up. So me, I was originally born in Bucharest, Romania. My dad escaped communism in 86. My mom and I came over in 93, and I grew up in Chicago, a great immigrant community in Chicago, Romanian immigrant community in Chicago is very lucky, but I always had a lot of education around money and authoritarianism just because of my background. So that definitely shaped a lot of things in my life that I didn't know they would just yet. It's definitely come into fruition now in the last three years, but yeah. Yeah, I grew up in the middle of nowhere, Wisconsin in a very small town. I think my hometown has a smaller population than the high school Carla went to. No way. Yeah, I think now it's up to about 2 ,500 people. So it's growing a little bit, but it was a very, very small town. Looking back, when you're young, it's like you can't wait to get out of your small home town. Can't wait to move into a big city and try things out, and then you get a little bit older and you get a taste of a few big cities and you start to think, man, I can't wait to get back to a small town again. It's amazing how our preferences change a little bit, but in contrast to Carla, I really did not grow up with a lot of certainly no monetary education. My parents were gracious enough to homeschool my sister and I, which was wonderful. And that was a, I'm very grateful for that experience overall, but there wasn't a lot of talk about money, financial knowledge in my household growing up. My parents did well enough to support us, but we were not by no means wealthy. We had a nice little life in a small town, but as I got older, I certainly learned a lot from Carla's dad about authoritarianism and monetary history. So I'm grateful for my American dad and my Romanian dad. Well, I can certainly relate to both of you, probably Carla a little bit more because I had the Eastern European immigrant parents as well who also grew up under communism and made sure to tell me not to trust anything that I hear, especially from the government. They were both gold bugs and all of that. So you guys met in college, right? Tell me about where you met and then your early careers before Bitcoin shifted things. So we actually, he's from Wisconsin, I'm from Chicago. Last minute, I decided to go to University of Wisconsin. Yeah, UW Madison, we met about the first, it was like the first week. Yeah, we were like 18. Yeah. So we've known each other for quite a while. A very long time. I was, I majored in industrial and systems engineering. Carla was in the journalism school, so we had journalism and business, no crossover for classes except for one site while I was still trying to chase her. People still wooed people back then. Well, she was, she said, she mentioned offhandedly that she was going to take this French class. I just wanted an easy A. Yeah. And I was like, well, you know, I could, I could parlay a little Francais. Yeah, he literally joined my French class. I was like, what are you doing? Which, which was very perfect. It worked out well, clearly, because here we sit today. But early career wise, I worked for Accenture as a, what do they call it? A digital business architect, whatever that means. Basically writing pseudocode for developers and spent about four years there before, before transitioning into a role with the family business. Where I've been working for the last 10 years. Yes. So Carla's got a little bit more time with the family business, including her entire childhood. But that was, it was nice to move out of the, the very massive corporate role at Accenture where I think there are like 350 ,000 people at that company. Like it's a small country to work in a family business where, yeah, you're, there's different types of stresses, but you feel like you're actually doing something that's more than just being a cog in a very, very, very large wheel. And like, admittedly, I, I went to grad school too for business just because like, again, realizing things now that I've gone into Bitcoin in the past, like I really was sort of in the rat race thinking that I had to get all these degrees and become this career woman. Like that was my plan for the longest time. And now here I am like about to become a mom and like doing creative stuff that I actually love. It's like a complete 180 that I literally never saw myself doing growing up. And I'm so much happier. Like it's crazy. Well, you guys are so perfect for it. Carla, did you always know that you were going to somehow end up working for the family business? And, and how did you guys come to start these creative videos that, that really have made such an important impact on the community? Because sometimes people take themselves way too seriously and you guys make it easy, but also fun to learn about Bitcoin. So if I always knew kind of, you know, when you're around a family business your whole life, I also wanted to give back because I'm very grateful for everything my parents have provided me and, you know, there's a business enabled to provide me. It's not a glamorous industry. It's like two way radio and distribution and system integration. So it's like nothing. It's very sexy. It's not sexy at all, but you know, it pays the bills. It's a job. But another part of it was my dad was always very supportive of, he always knew I was kind of a creative soul at heart. So he appreciated that I came to work for the business, but he also was very supportive when I was like, Hey, I also want to try something else on the side. So actually during the pandemic Walker and I started our own company on the side, just like to see, explore, like incubate a little startup, which we did for over a year. It's called get busy. And we were producing these hardware sensors and that was right when like the supply chain issues started. The timing could not have been worse for trying to source parts. Like we were, we needed chips and we were competing with like Sony and Nissan for chips. And actually we're still like, finally they're getting delivered in May, 2024. Like we placed these component orders like years ago. Whoa. But because we were in the startup mode, I started making content, video content again, just for the startup, which was like in the bar and nightclub industry. And I was like, Oh my gosh, I like forgot. I liked video editing. Like, you know, I'd studied some documentary filmmaking back in school and whatnot. And then once we got the news that no more manufacturing would happen for us for years, we were both like really sad and kind of depressed and on the couch. And I looked at Walker, I'm like, well, we make videos now. Like, why don't we just make a Bitcoin video? We both like, we both been on Twitter for a while. I think we both joined in like 2010 or 2011 and then discovered Bitcoin Twitter. This wonderful little sub, you know, sub vibe of Twitter. You know, probably around the start of the pandemic. 19? Well, yeah, 2019, 2020. And I'd just been lurking on there. And as you know, like we started making videos, I think May of 2021. Yeah, it was still a year. Started making crypto couple videos, May, 2021. And we had just been like, the vibes were not very great at that time. It was right after we'd blown off the first top from the initial all time high. After we like smash bought at 63. Yeah. You know, after, you know, buying like all the way up to that top and then watching it drop down to, I think it got down to like, you know, 28 at one point. And that was like in June of 2021. And the vibes were pretty harsh on Twitter at that time. And as you correctly said, people were just taking themselves so very seriously. And Carla literally looked at me and was like, you know, We had nothing to lose either. No, yeah. Like we had no audience. We had no plans. We were literally just on the couch. We were like, crypto couple has two C's like alliteration. That's fun. Let's just make a video. Ha ha. And then like it went viral, the first one on TikTok. On TikTok. So we weren't even on Twitter yet as our Bitcoin promoting personalities. This was just purely on TikTok. Like first one just took off. Before TikTok, like then later kind of shadow banned us. And now we don't use that really at all anymore. But it was your first video. It was the types of Bitcoin haters. It was like, you know, any time that's the beautiful thing about this industry is that both within it and externally, there is so much fodder for content because either people we can we can laugh at ourselves internally. There's plenty to laugh at. Oh, yeah. But there is so much more to laugh at from people not understanding it from without. Bitcoin? Yeah, I looked into it a little bit, but my managing director says it's probably going to get regulated. So hey, Jimbo, what's the score? Bitcoin is used for a lot of illicit demands, and that's what the U .S. dollar is for. Tulip mania, Ponzi scheme, bubble. I think that sums it up. To me, it's like, why do you need privacy if you have nothing to hide? We actually recommend that our high net worth clients launder their money with us to eliminate the risk of jail time. I just think we need to conserve our natural resources for more important things like YouTube or Christmas lights. Look at the price of Bitcoin, then look at the price of gold. The price of gold stays steady. In other news, Bitcoin is dead again. Back to you, Tom. And so, you know, we made it was very easy to pick like eight or 10 different people that hate Bitcoin, personify them and put it out there. And it struck a chord. And we were like, whoa, people really like this. So many people were commenting like, we need more stuff like this. So we were like, OK, like, again, no plan, no, you know, we just started accumulating costumes as we went. We had no idea that years later we'd be emceeing events or going on podcasts. Like it all just happened. I mean, if I will say anything, it's consistency. Like, yeah, we just kept producing. In the beginning, we were making over a video a day, which was a lot of work. It is crazy to think about. I mean, I can relate to that as well. I had no plans for my podcast to become my job. And I came out right around the same time as you guys. And you're but you're both so it just comes so naturally to you. I think that's why so many people love the videos. They like it's just you're so naturally funny and you guys don't take yourselves too seriously. But yet you get across these very, very important smart messages. But how did you discover Bitcoin? Did you both learn about it around the same time? Like, what's that story? It's time for a quick break to hear these messages from my partners. First up, Bitcoin Conference 2024, the world's largest Bitcoin event is coming to Nashville next year. Come join us for three full days of keynotes, panels, networking events, workshops, concerts and more. My first ever Bitcoin conference was back in 2021. And that's where I dropped my first episodes of Coin Stories. Not expecting this to become my full time job. Just hoping to meet Bitcoiners and find more guests for the show. Anything can happen here, especially if you dream of working in the industry. Ticket prices go up every month until the big event. So don't miss out. You want to get your tickets early. And for 10 % off, use the code HODL, H -O -D -L at B .TC slash conference. I'll see you in Nashville. Next up, Fold. Fold is the best Bitcoin rewards card and shopping app in the world. You can earn Bitcoin on everything you purchase from Amazon to groceries to your Bitcoin conference ticket with Fold's Bitcoin cashback debit card. And you can play to win free satoshis or even a whole Bitcoin by spinning the rewards wheel. This is a great app to get someone totally new to Bitcoin and way better than earning reward miles and points. Head to foldapp .com slash Natalie. And if you use my link, you'll get 10 ,000 sats when you sign up for Spin or Spin Plus and spend at least $20 on the card. All right, back to the show. Well, I first heard about Bitcoin in like 2014. We all heard about it in college for like some, you know. It was the Silk Road days. For the obvious reasons. And I had a buddy of mine that was utilizing the Silk Road. And he was like, dude, have you heard of this Bitcoin thing? Like I have to use it on the Silk Road. I'm like, dude, I don't care. I don't want to know what you're doing. We were young. You know, just whatever, man. And boy, it's like one of those things where you look back and you're like, wow, if only I would have not just dismissed it immediately. But like most people do dismiss it immediately. Right. Like more power to the people who heard about Bitcoin way back when and immediately were like, I get this. This is the most important thing that's ever going to exist in terms of money. That was not me. That was not most. That was. Yeah. And then next, your dad. So, yeah, for that, for me, like he didn't really none of us picked it anything up in college, like the next time we actually got exposure. My dad, because he follows things closely. He was like, oh, Carla, like, have you heard of this cryptocurrency? It's a very good imitation. Like I was like, no, what's that? But I'm like, OK, I'll look into it. And at the time, I obviously did not look into it much because I was like, oh, my gosh, like I can't spend that much on a Bitcoin. So I was like, well, I'll just buy Ethereum then because it's cheaper. This was like peak, though. This was like when Ethereum was like four hundred dollars. So I was like, yeah, I'm going to buy one ETH. Good for me. And I like start telling him because we were. What were we at the time? Are we engaged? I don't know. No, not not. I don't know. We were about to be engaged. But I was like, I bought this Ethereum. And he was like, well, I was like, man, I'm pretty short on cash right now. I can't even like I can't even afford a couple of ETH. I'll just get one of these lite coins because that's like that's like the third most expensive one. So like that'll probably maybe it'll get us, you know, be worth as much as Bitcoin sometime. And I'll make a bunch of money like no Bitcoin because I can't afford a full Bitcoin. It's like, yeah, again, did not go deep at all. And then it crashes down. And I was like, I'm never touching this again. This is stupid. I can't believe I did this. Like all of this is so dumb. And then you just tuck it away in the back of your brain for a few more years. And then the pandemic rolls around. And like it was, you know, March 2020, things start to get really weird. They start shutting things down. They start at this point. I was following kind of monetary news more carefully than I ever had before, because I was like, what is going on? Where is all this money coming from? How are they just sending stimulus checks to all these people? Like, you know, I got one. And like, why did I get one? Like, I don't really need this right now. But a lot of people are in this case. There's so much money and we had nothing better to do. I mean, so that's like 2020 is when I finally went down the rabbit hole, so to speak, or my journey into the never ending rabbit hole of Bitcoin and just started like slowly with whatever, you know, I had more spare cash because nobody was doing anything. We weren't going out. We'd moved to the middle of nowhere, Wisconsin. Our expenses dropped a lot. And so it was like, okay, let me just start buying a little bit of Bitcoin and learning more. And he brought it up to me and I was like, well, I got nothing better to do. And so that's honestly what happened. And at this point, again, that was when we kind of kicked up our start, our startup. So we, you know, we're not solely focused on Bitcoin. We were just DCA into it. We were learning more about it, you know, lurking on Twitter. And then after the startup kind of went on pause, still on pause, that was when we were both like, okay, now we've been, you know, we've stacked Bitcoin up to this recent, like, all time high. And now we're still stacking as it goes down to this little bottom. And that was when we decided, okay, let's start to share, like, let's bring a little bit of levity to the space, but let's also see, like, all the education that's out there is super long form, which is great. Like, it is wonderful once you've gone down the rabbit hole to listen to a four hour podcast between a couple of, you know, guys who are really going deep into monetary theory and all these things. But you know what, for like 99 % of people when they're just starting out, that is of no help or interest. Like, I'm in the space and I still, like, don't even always want to listen to that.
Thinking Crypto News & Interviews
A highlight from WILL SBF EXPOSE SEC GARY GENSLER'S DIRTY CRYPTO SECRETS?
"Welcome to the thinking crypto podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. If you are new here, please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify, Apple or Google, please leave a five star rating and review it supports the podcast and it doesn't cost you anything. Well, folks, I want to start off by talking about the price of Bitcoin because we did close at a reasonable price. Right now, Bitcoin is at thirty four thousand five hundred and sixty seven dollars. So we closed the week and we're going to close the month out pretty strong. So looking good, we're still looking bullish. You know, one analyst here said, sorry, but there is nothing to be bearish about on this chart. Speaking about the Bitcoin chart, he said Bitcoin is up one hundred and ten percent this year. Bullish market structure, higher highs and higher lows. The price is above the twenty twenty one open. And there is a clear accumulation below thirty K waiting for a dip higher low is reasonable. Waiting for new lows is not so essentially highlighting that the charts look bullish. I think we all have been anticipating higher prices. Bitcoin could go to forty or forty K plus, but this is not a move to new all time highs. It's kind of the transition from bear to bull market. I believe the official bull market starts next year in April at the Bitcoin halving. And then we go on a slow, steady rise upwards into a parabolic move into twenty twenty five. That's how I'm looking at it. I could be wrong. So I'm not saying that's guaranteed. That is just a thesis. I think it's the more likely thesis based on how the market has played out historically. So Raoul Pal, macro investor, who I recently had on the podcast, highlighted that crypto liquidity is back on the rise, showing that Bitcoin year over year is moving with the global money supply, which is M2. And you can see here on the chart, the data doesn't lie. So M2 money supply is increasing again globally now. And we're seeing Bitcoin move with it. Just last week, I shared with you guys that China injected a whole bunch of money into the economy. Right. So quantitative easing is going to come back, folks. We are in a debt based system. They're going to find excuses to paint the narrative that they have to print more money and they're going to continue kicking the can down the road. They have no choice or the economies will collapse. And we know what would happen, right? That would be the worst case scenario. The collapse of civilization, people on the street killing each other over for food and whatever else. Obviously, they don't want that to happen. Now, Raoul says it really loves global M2. This is when Bitcoin outperforms the NASDAQ and crypto becomes a supermassive black hole. Our weekly global liquidity index is about to break above zero. Our GMI total liquidity is above zero and rising to and the Fed is net liquidity. He says here and the sweet gentle sound of cowbell can be heard in the not too far distance. So showing here the BKX index. This is the data, folks. The data doesn't lie. And we are seeing similar patterns. What we've seen historically, right? We are in that quantitative tightening cycle. It won't last forever. They're going to have to go back to quantitative easing and then we will be back in the bull markets. Now here, Kevin Swenson had a great, great video he put out this weekend. I highly recommend you guys go subscribe to his YouTube channel, follow him on Twitter. And he did a great pattern of the S &P 500 and Bitcoin showing that what we've been talking for about for a long time, that Bitcoin and the crypto market move with the stock market, the equities markets, right? And you could argue kind of what Raoul Pal is arguing is not so much that it follows the stock market, but it follows the money supply, right? M2 and the stock market obviously rises based on the amount of liquidity in the market. And Bitcoin and crypto is also doing the same thing. However, we're seeing some sort of weird decoupling right now. Now this could be a temporary thing, right? Bitcoin may be still catching up to the rally that the stock market did. One of the things Kevin mentioned was that BlackRock's ETF is such a huge catalyst because BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager. They are swaying more capital from Wall Street to flow into Bitcoin and crypto. And that's why you're seeing for the first time in history, or as it appears to be on the charts, a full deviation. It's very interesting. Now we have to let it play out because look, tomorrow a Black Swan event could happen and everything tanks, right? We saw what happened in March, 2020, you all know about the whole crisis then. So we could have something similar happen, but right now, this is very, very interesting folks. I am studying this and looking at this, like what's happening? Is this the tipping point where a lot of institutional investors are going to come out of the stock market and the equities market and put a lot of capital in crypto? We'll have to see, fingers crossed, right? That maybe it is the tipping point and don't get me wrong, I am diversified. I have a real estate property, a rental property, I have stocks and a 401k and all that stuff, right? And I obviously am heavily invested in crypto, but folks, this is very, very interesting. So you can go check out that video from Kevin. It's really, really insightful. Now, quick word from our sponsor, and that is Uphold. Uphold is a great crypto platform that I've been using since 2018. They have over 260 plus cryptocurrencies. They're available in over 150 countries. They're transparent. They secure your crypto. They don't lend it out. They don't co -mingle like FTX. And it's a platform that I've interviewed their CEO, their CFO and many folks. So I trust this platform. I use it. And, you know, during the Ripple lawsuit, they were one of the only exchanges that still listed XRP. So they got a great legal team and a great team overall. In addition, you can trade precious metals on this platform, folks, and they make it very easy to swap between precious metals and fiat currencies and crypto. So if you'd like to learn more about Uphold, please visit the link in the description. All right, folks, we got some very interesting news coming from the consumer action for a stronger economy. The slogan on their website is the free market voice for America's consumers. This is a nonprofit organization and consumer action for a strong economy. Also abbreviated as case C A S E. Well, folks, you know, they do a lot of advocacy on behalf of consumers, exposing the government, challenging the government. Right. Which is what we should be doing when the government overreaches or abuses their powers. Well, folks, they are focusing in on Gary Gensler and the SEC and their role in the Sam Beckman freed FTS situation. What have I been talking about for so long? Not just me, but others. Gary Gensler and the SEC met with the FTS officials and Sam Beckman freed multiple times. It was rumored Sam Beckman freed was going to get a special broker dealer license, same that Promethean got. So I think FTS was going to be a plant by Gary Gensler, same way he tried to do with Promethean and then tried to shut down the rest of the exchanges, Coinbase and so forth. Right. So the SEC could control the market as much as possible. But we know they're trying to do it in an illegal way without actual regulations, without Congress acting. But this ad exposes Gary Gensler and the lies and the corruption, the things he's been hiding. Notice he has not sent Congress all the communications with FTS. What is he hiding? Right. We saw Congressman Patrick Henry call him out saying, I don't want to send you a subpoena and I don't want to be you to be the first SEC chair that we have to send a subpoena to. So Gary has a lot to hide here, folks. I remember when Sam Beckman freed was supposed to go testify before Congress, all of a sudden the SEC came out and a couple of these other agencies, right, to kind of steer that in the other direction and cancel that whole situation because they know they're going to get exposed. So let me play the clip for you. It's about a minute long. Just listen to everything that's said. Samuel Beckman freed was arrested and criminally charged with one of the biggest financial frauds in American history. Meanwhile, Wall Street multimillionaire turned SEC Chairman Gary Gensler held multiple meetings with SPF while this fraud was happening. Gensler made millions on Wall Street, even laughing about how well he's done since then. And is it correct to say that you made most of your personal wealth directly through your employment at this bank, Goldman Sachs? I've done well since then, too, sir.
The Bitboy Crypto Podcast
A highlight from When Will Bitcoin EXPLODE Next Year?
"There are a lot of things that are going to come to the head that I think is going to accelerate Bitcoin to all -time highs, past all -time highs. I think we'll go for the... As transparent as Bitcoin looked, it made me skeptical, right? I think I got in about $87, $89 of Bitcoin. This is why we still say it so early. The cat is out the bag. It's going to be one of these coins. There were signs to tell you Mt. Gox was going down. Where do you see the market going between now and July next year? What's up everybody? Good morning, good afternoon, good night. Wherever you're tuned in from, welcome to BitLab Academy. We're going to be diving into a conversation with a friend of mine in the space. I've been watching him for a long time. Mr. Crypto Blood himself. How are you doing? How are you feeling? How the hell did you get here to Atlanta? What are you doing here? I just kind of stumbled upon this great city that you guys have. Great traffic. Primo. Love it, love it. But it's been fun, man. The tour, you guys got like 32 ,000 square feet of space. It's insane. I didn't think it was going to be like this. Content factory. We were happy to have people like you here, different creators. For those of you that don't know Crypto Blood, he's one of the people among the first few content creators that I started following and watching in the space years ago. You've been doing this since 2017. You're among the first. I guess. I don't know. There's only a handful of people. I guess they're only. So you're right. When I got in, I was looking at Andreas Autonopoulos for a lot of info. I got into, started the channel because I wanted to just express my happiness that I finally got my dad into crypto. I've been begging him for about three years. Almost as long as I have been in it at that point. So like in 2014, after playing with it, getting an understanding of what's going on. I'm like, dad, I was telling everyone, actually, my peers and my guys, I smoked cigars with and that's back when everybody still thought we were crazy. We're talking about it. It wasn't until post 16, 17, 17 for, for about six months. And then the market crashed. And then it was, you're crazy again. And it took, it took all the way until around March after March, 2020. You're right. Until it started being okay to talk about without looking at you cross -eyed. Look on CNBC every day. Cause I always watch CNBC in the morning, trashing it Bitcoin back in 2013, 14, 15, 16. It was a kind of toggle. Yeah, it was good. Then they'll switch, you know, the Jim Cramer, you know, go back and forth, flip -flop and then as a, you know, you get into 17 now the narrative is changing. But in the early days, man, it was just, I would just shake my head. Cause I knew this technology was game changing. And so, yeah, I started the channel just as a first upload, just excited telling everyone I was going to tell my dad or show him, I should say how to set up this crypto. That's an exciting story. I think for each one of us, as we go through our own journey, we all in different aspects of our life have that aha moment ourselves. Yep. We feel a little bit crazy, but we stick with it long enough. If we do stick with it long enough, we achieve either some sort of success or some sort of comfort in the knowledge that we do have really seeing it broadcast out into the future and forecasting what can happen and then being able to share with somebody else. So before we go any further, I just want to let everybody out there. Know one, we appreciate you being here and I'm happy that you're here with us. Make sure you hit that like button, hit the subscribe button, drive the crypto engagement out because it doesn't just help this channel. It helps crypto blood channel helps. It helps crypto in general. So I wanted to ask you, because you've been in, you've been in a little bit longer than I have. And for anybody out there, whether they've been in a week, a month, a year. Just curious, we're going to be going through a little bit like what your origin story was getting into crypto and then a couple of the key lessons you learned along the way. So how about we just start that? What brought you to crypto and why did you stay, especially early on when it was such a questionable thing? What gave you that? For people to understand, like my background, I come from a technical background. I went to school for software engineering. A lot of people may not know that. Like I know how to program and things. And also I've always been into trading finance. I told you earlier, Forex is something I've been into very deeply for many years. So when I saw the concept on zero hedge, I immediately, literally, Kelly, I went that night. It was one o 'clock in the morning, got out the bed, went up to CVS.
Epicenter
A highlight from Guy Young: Ethena - USDe Synthetic Dollar via Delta-Neutral Staked Ethereum Hedging
"Welcome to Epicenter, the show which talks about the technologies, projects, and people driving decentralization and the blockchain revolution. I'm Felix, and today I'm speaking with Gai Yang, who's the founder and CEO of Ethina Labs. Dina is building EUSD, a delta neutral stablecoin backed by Staked Ether. We're going to dive into what that all means, but yeah, first of all, welcome, Gai. So glad to have you on. Yeah, thanks. Awesome. Yeah. So generally, we start more about your personal journey to crypto, you know, Epicenter is mostly about kind of how did people get into the space, what were their vision or why they're trying to work on future of decentralized finance. So yeah, when we start there, how do you like learn about crypto and get into the space and what did you do before? Yeah, sure. So before crypto, I was working at a hedge fund in the US. They focus primarily on financial services. So we're investing into everything from banks to insurance companies, specialty finance, and that was across the capital structure as well. I had a friend who was a DeFi founder back in 2019, introduced me to Ethereum and to DeFi back then. And it was just something that was immediately interesting to me. And I was investing into it on the side of my day job all the way through until when Luna collapsed. And it was when Luna went down, Arthur came out with his sort of thought piece around how we might think about a more secure and scalable crypto narrative step coin. And that's how we sort of landed with the idea of Athena. Yeah, that's a really interesting post there and sort of origins with Arthur's post and also like he's a founding advisor to Athena. And in the post, if you look through it in the ad, it actually says, right, if I find a team that does this, let's do it. So that recall you guys found each other there, I guess, we'd be curious to hear actually how that went down. Did you reach out to him? You started building it and then later when it had some shape, you were like, hey, Arthur, it's happening? Yeah, that's exactly right. I thought we wanted to flesh out the idea a bit. So you actually had a bit of a game plan and architecture behind the whole thing and a business plan that actually made sense that he could get behind rather than just sort of putting our hands up. So we put that together, had this sort of design and everything ready to go. And then had a connection into Akshat, who's the guy who's running his family office Maelstrom, had a few calls with them and then got introduced to Arthur directly there. Awesome. Yeah, that's pretty cool. So I also like, I guess, for our listeners, I think many people know Arthur Ace, right? It's like BitMax founder and like a sort of person that's very famed in the crypto space around macroeconomics and trading in general. And he wrote this post called, actually, I don't know, Dust on Crust, I think. It starts about skiing and kind of draws parallels to the crypto space. I think in general, Arthur is a pretty great writer. So I recommend reading some of his blog posts. And it goes into this idea of the NACA dollar, which is essentially sort of a new type of stablecoin that he was thinking about that is based around derivatives and sort of hedging out the price risk of cryptocurrencies. But we'll get into that. I think I wanted to start because I guess stablecoins, like huge topic. You also already mentioned Luna there, right? In general, stablecoins seem to be one of the kind of use cases of crypto that has gotten the most traction. So yeah, I wanted to kind of get your view of the history of stablecoins in the space. What did you find interesting and what was lacking, like going from DAI and these sort of like more centrally backed stablecoins? Can you just kind of talk through a bit how you were thinking about stablecoins before you started Ifti now? Yeah, sure. So the history of stablecoins goes all the way back to Tether and it was originally called Realcoin back in 2014. And then they launched officially as Tether on Bitfinex back in January 2015. So that really the key innovation there was a lot of the crypto businesses that existed were really struggling with banking relationships and being able to off -board and to interfere. And really the only innovation that they had there was if Tether could get the right banking rails set up, you only really needed them to be able to do that as sort of an off -ramp to the real world. And then everyone else within the crypto ecosystem could rely on Tether as transactional money within the space. And so that was really the first use case, which was just a trading pair on exchanges. And it's obviously evolved pretty significantly from then onwards. After that, I think actually the origins of Athena was probably the next example of how a stablecoin -like asset sort of surfaced. And so it was actually on Bitfinex where everything was BTC denominated. So single every instrument that in order to margin the derivative required Bitcoin as the collateral asset. And so if you wanted to get into a flower position, they got a short inverse perpetual against that BTC collateral. And that would in effect create a synthetic gold position out of those two things and ending off. And really that's kind of the origin of the Athena story, which is what we're trying to do is tokenize and export that as an actual product rather than just a trade that was sitting on Bitmax. Since those days of Bitmax, I think you saw a few different evolutions going away from the centralized model of stablecoins. So you saw MakerDAO and originally it was called SAI with single collateral being ETH and then move to DAO, which allowed different collateral types to come in there. At a very basic level, what was happening is you're putting up collateral on one side and then you're able to borrow the stablecoin into existence on the other. Really the key moment though for MakerDAO was in the March 2020 crash where the system basically became insolvent with what happened with the price crash in ETH. And in order to actually remedy that situation, they needed to onboard USDC as a collateral asset there. And so I think really that changed the course of history for MakerDAO where they sort of made the decision that they were going to take on centralized assets and that fundamentally sort of changed the actual profile of DAI as an asset going forward. And now you sort of look at it and it's more than 50 percent centralized assets, whether it's or RWAs USDC sitting in there. And then we obviously get to Luna. I think everyone's pretty aware of what went on then, happy to sort of jump into what we think went right and wrong there. But I think it's a pretty well spoken story at the moment. All right. Yeah, totally. I think very interesting to hear that I guess on BitMEX there was already this product there, but I guess it was only on the exchange, right? It didn't make its way into on -chain or DeFi. And that's sort of what you were after, since that also has evolved a lot. So it goes back quite far, which I guess most people maybe don't know. I think you were also mentioning in some of your materials the stablecoin Phrylema. Can you sort of expand on what's the trade -offs that stablecoins generally make and then how Athena fits in that? Yeah. Well, I think Trilemmas are used quite a bit within pitch decks in crypto, I think to make up problems and pretend that we're solving them to get a capital raise. But I think actually the Trilemma as it relates to stablecoins is actually a very real one. So the basic idea here is you've got decentralization, scalability and stability, and you only can really have two of those three components. We personally think that it's a pretty unhelpful sort of definition of the world where if you're focusing on these words, which are just very broad, like decentralization and scalability, it's quite unhelpful to actually say, are you actually attaining those qualities that you're actually after? And so for us, we're trying to think a bit more deeply about what are the more narrow qualities of each of those three pieces that we actually want to try and retain within our product. And what we arrived at is within this decentralization phase, what is actually the base that you're trying to solve for here? And that is actually having censorship resistance. So for us, that meant you don't want bonds or real world assets sitting within SPVs or banking structures in the real world, which a regulator or some of the entities can come in and shut down in the space of the day. And so for us, that was really the piece that we were trying to unlock. And it's something that was echoed in the sentiment of Arthur's piece, which is you're not actually trying to create a purely decentralized stablecoin because I don't actually think that they exist in reality. What you're trying to do is create a stablecoin, which is independent of the fiat system. And that's actually the quality that you're going for. So for us, yeah, like I said, it's a more narrow definition that we're going for. I don't think we've solved anything when it comes to the trilamor that's sort of presented as it is. But we are more narrowly defining what it is that we're trying to achieve. And in doing so, I hope that we're just presenting something that's honest to our users in terms of the type of trade -offs that we're making. Let's get into this in a sec. I think another one that's very common, like fear or concern in the stablecoin space, especially around Tether, is sort of this transparency angle. Is that kind of related to the censorship resistance for you or how do you think about that? Since I guess in Tether's case, many think, is the backing actually there, there's not enough audits? And yeah, is that something you're addressing as well? Yeah, 100%. So I think we felt like we weren't leveraging the openness and transparency of DeFi within our product. We'd be doing our users a massive disservice with the way that we put it together. So it does look slightly different here because we are leveraging centralized liquidity to put on the hedges. And we can jump into the reasons for that later on. But what you do have are wallets where you can see where the collateral is actually sitting. And then the corresponding hedges that offset that collateral, you can obviously just have a read from the exchange APIs to display that. So really what we're trying to do is elevate the local transparency here well beyond anything that you see, even from like a USDC where you're often waiting a month to get watered down or the reports come back. And here you can see a real -time dashboard of every single cent of collateral and hedge that sort of corresponds to that. And we think that showing that to our users and being fully transparent about it is the way that we really want to present the product to our users. Right. Yeah. Let's definitely get a bit more into this. I think maybe we take it back a bit around this actual principle of how the stable coin is created. So I guess in Athena it's called EUSD. And it mostly relies on this principle that you already said that you have the long asset, the core asset and a short position against it. Can you explain that maybe in a few sentences again for our listeners that maybe are not so familiar with financial products? Yeah, for sure. And maybe just before we jump into that, I know we've mentioned stable coins a few times on this. I think it's a word that we as a team have been thinking a bit more deeply around in terms of how we're marketing these type of products to people outside the space. So I just wanted to be clear before we jump to the mechanics that really the risks around this product look very different to having a normal stable coin with bonds basically sitting in a bank account in the real world. And so I think we're just thinking about repositioning the way that we describe the product as something that is closer to that synthetic dollar concept that I described earlier on. And yeah, really what goes into the synthetic dollar idea is you have, in Arthur's case, his idea was long BTC on one side and then short inverse perpetual on the other. And the basic idea there is that for every percentage change in the underlying collateral, those two positions are essentially netting off so that you always have one dollar of collateral that's in and out. One key change that we made to Arthur's post was thinking about swapping out Bitcoin for a stake Ethereum. There's a bunch of different reasons why we thought that that made sense. The main one being that you now have a positive carry to being long stake Ethereum. So you get paid some yield that's ranged between three and a half to six percent this year. And what that does is not only enable you to create what we think are really interesting yield products around the synthetic dollar, but then also it gives you a really interesting margin of safety because these hedges often do pay you to be short. So over the last three years, you get paid roughly seven percent to be short the ETH contract. But that's not always the case. And sometimes it is negative. So for periods during 2022, when the whole space was blowing up and centralized entities were getting liquidated, you did see that sort of briefly dip into into negative funding territory. And so having that stake return on one side obviously helps for you to be able to cover that risk as well and just create a more secure product. Right. So this funding rate, just to go into this a bit more, right, if you're shorting pay this funding rate to the other side, essentially. Right. And usually you get paid for putting on the short. So it's you can sort of think about it as there's a natural long demand for leverage within the system. And crypto is a long biased market where most people who are in the space think it's going up. And so they're willing to pay for that leverage to be longer than one X they're not worth. And so in our case, we're taking the opposite side of that position with a short and they're getting paid for that. But essentially the underlying to what if it's like negative or positive, the funding rate is essentially like a market dynamic of like supply and demand for short longs. Right. Yeah, exactly right. Yeah. Okay. And you mentioned already. So they that mostly it's like long bias, I guess we'll maybe get into a bit more like how this could turn out in the future and things. But I guess one other question that I had around, you know, like you already said, you know, switching out Bitcoin for Ether, but is there also a potential to, you know, have multiple assets as collateral in a system like also Bitcoin maybe or even like other proof of stake assets? Yeah, absolutely. For us, it's really just a question of sequencing. So Bitcoin's obviously got the deepest derivative market sitting behind it, but it's obviously got that issue of not having as much interesting yield for you to be able to create a product. And so the way that we thought about this is in order to bootstrap something from zero and, you know, fund an insurance fund that can sit behind the whole thing and ultimately actually just drive demand for it, we know that people within crypto respond to yields. And that's how you can sort of address that cold start problem in the beginning by interesting people with something that has a bit more yield. But as we sort of grow in scale and you start to tap out the potential of derivative market and staked Ethereum, you can obviously generalize that to look at Bitcoin and then also other proof of stake assets like Solana. The issue here is that on one hand, Bitcoin's more scalable due to the size of the derivative market that exists around it, but you don't have the yield. But then on the other hand, you've got something like Solana, which, yes, it's got a proof of stake yield that's attached to it, but the derivative market is like a 20th of the size of Ethereum. So really, it is a question of sequencing for us. But who knows where these markets grow over the next three to five years. But we are sort of restricting ourselves to staked Ethereum, aren't they? Right. Yeah, makes sense. Makes no sense. I think what's also interesting, I guess, is this insurance one you just mentioned or like sinking fund, I think it's called in Arthur's post. So like that's basically for these periods where the funding rate goes negative. Can you like expand a bit? How does it exist in how are you building this? What like sort of, I guess, portion of the yield is diverted to that? How do you how are you thinking about the system to do that? Yeah, you can you can think about the sources and uses for the insurance fund in basically two ways. So the first is just raising capital. So when we're raising capital at the equity for the Ethereum Labs business or within the if we eventually have a token and do treasury sales through that, you obviously have an ability to basically raise dollar capital in exchange for the equity yield tokens. And I think that that's just a pretty clean and easy way to get to get an initial insurance fund set up. The other interesting piece about this is to the extent that you're generating yields on the product that are above market. So roughly this year, this product has been running at around 12 percent unlevered. And that's with crypto rates being pretty close to the low of their cycles versus like the real rates in the real world at 5 percent. What's interesting there, I think, is, yes, initially you want to pay out most of that yield, I think, to users in order to sort of bootstrap liquidity and supply in the beginning. But there does come a point where that interest rate differential to rates in the real world. I'm not convinced that you need to pay out the full amount to keep sort of users in the product. And so there might be an equilibrium where, you know, rates in the real world are at five, four, three. And this product's at 10, 12, 15. That obviously gives you some scope there to be able to capture some of that yield to the insurance fund going forward. I think the interesting piece about that is obviously, as I mentioned, funding is typically skewed positive where you get 7 percent over the last three years. And if you just look at the distribution of sort of the days of positive funding versus negative, when you include the stakeholder yields, you get 89 percent of the days you're getting paid and you can add cash to the insurance fund and only 11 percent where you're going to be drawing from it. So really, it is in your favor that you're going to be accumulating cash into the insurance fund through the life of the product. And we think it's quite interesting because you're capturing, you know, some value within the token, within the product and actually helping to create a more safe and secure product going forward by capitalizing the insurance fund. Right. Right. That makes sense. And then I guess if it turns negative, the insurance fund would like sort of subsidize that to get the yield back for a while. Is that sort of the mechanic that it would? Yeah. Well, what itself performs is zero in that case. So we don't want to be in a position like with what you saw with Anker and Luna, where I think actually creating that inflexible endogenous interest rate there, I think was one of the biggest mistakes that they made because you really need external market forces, I think, to be calibrating the supply of the whole system. And whenever you're stepping in and trying to pay more yield than it's naturally producing, I think it's just a bit of a slippery slope where it eventually leads to breakages in the system at some other point. And so really what the insurance fund is doing there is when it would be negative, you're just getting it to zero so that, you know, users aren't losing principle in the stablecoin. And then naturally what's going to happen is when you get paid zero percent to hold the stablecoin, we expect that some users would step out of the product. And in the process of doing so, we'd have to lift the shorts on the exchanges, which causes funding to mean Roberta going back above zero. So just to be totally clear on this one, the funding rate is not something that we're scared of. It really is like core to the whole design here, which is we want users to be responding to positive and negative interest rates. And when it does get too low, that means the supply of the stablecoin is too high relative to dynamics in the rest of the market and it needs to shrink. And we're not going to stand in the way of that. Right. I read this tweet where you answered basically some concerns of like each and Spartan there. And I found it very interesting that essentially the stablecoin can adjust by just people withdrawing and then you're closing out the shorts, like you just said. But there's also the just like general mechanics are not as many people might think, I think, in the that are like scarred from from Luna that it would be like totally collapsing at once or it's very, very hard to do that. Can you can you explain maybe why the like a deep hacking wouldn't be like, you know, from one dollar to zero versus instead maybe going like more gradually losing value in this sort of case? Yeah, for sure. So I think the the the key difference here is that you've actually got the collateral sitting behind the stablecoin. So Luna was obviously backed by basically just the faith that the Luna token had some sort of value and then market maker's ability to stand in and save the system a bit like a central backward in the real world. And the key difference here is, yes, even if you do have some of these issues and there are other risks outside of the negative funding, but we can just focus on this one, even if it does go negative, if you look at sort of the bottom twenty five centile of funding, are you like the worst quarter of where funding gets to, it's typically around sort of the negative five percent range. If you think about that on an annualized basis, if you're bringing that down to a daily attrition that you'd see within the stablecoin, it's literally one basis point per day. Right. So it's like not even comparable to a swap on curve or a little bit of slippage that you'd be paying like anywhere within this entire system. That's how much you're losing every day if this thing is at like the bottom quartile of the funding. And so really the risks are very different here where if something is going wrong, it's a very slow, gradual attrition of the principal of the stablecoin rather than something that sort of collapses to zero in the space of a day like you saw with Luna. Right. Totally. I think that's very interesting. I think maybe we can get a bit into like technically how it works. I think the interesting piece in Isina's case is I guess it has like the sort of interaction between CeFi and DeFi. So like there's there's elements on chain and there is like interaction with centralized parties. Can you just explain how that works and why you need that maybe? Yeah, for sure. So this is something that Arthur was pretty interesting on on his piece, which is the demand for this type of product we think is is here right now. And it's it's a product that sort of the need is immediate and urgent. And we don't really have the time to be able to wait for perpetual DEXs on chain to go to a size that would be able to accommodate for it. So centralized liquidity, rough numbers is between 25 to 30 times larger than what you see on chain. And part of the issue is that even on -chain DEXs, they're not a single unified source of liquidity. So you have Synthetix sitting on Optimism, you got GMX and Arbitrum, you got DYDX doing their app chain on Cosmos. These are all disparate areas and pools of liquidity, which you can't even sort of aggregate into one place to try and build this product. And so for us, it was really accepting the fact that you needed centralized liquidity in order to get this to scale, to achieve the goals that we have as a team and deliver a product that we think is useful for millions of people rather than thousands. And given that fact that you need to make those trade -offs, we ask ourselves the question of, can you do that in a trust -minimized way while you still retain the core pieces of decentralization that we care about? And so just going back to that original point that you're making around the trilemma, for us it was really asking a more narrow question of what is it that you actually care about when you have your assets on an exchange and what is it that you're trying to protect yourself from? And for us, it's really just you don't want your assets sitting on a centralized exchange. And so we've seen this over, if you have FTX 2 .0 out and again, where you want to be able to hold your assets and make sure that a centralized exchange is not going to basically withhold you being able to take them out. And so we've seen really interesting unlocks when it comes to custodian setups that have been put in place since FTX, where you have an ability now to hold your assets outside of the exchange, but then still use them as a marketing instrument for the derivative on the other side. And so what that unlocks is our ability to be able to, A, provide the transparency that I was describing earlier, so you can actually see those wallets and be able to read into them as a user on the other side. And we'll be providing that in dashboards on the app. And then B, it reduces that counterparty risk to the exchanges obviously enormously by being able to disaggregate the assets from sitting on that service.
Crypto Banter
A highlight from How Will The Israel War Affect Crypto? (Prepare Your Portfolio NOW!)
"What's happening in Israel right now is horrible, and my heart goes out to everyone that is affected by the conflict. But in today's video, I'm not going to pretend to be a geopolitical expert. What I am going to do is run you through how I think the current conflict can affect the crypto market and look at historical examples of how markets have reacted during times of war. So we're going to look at how Bitcoin could perform throughout this period, what's going to happen to altcoins, what the charts are telling us, and of course, also historically, what this typically means for markets, because it does have huge ramifications on things like CPI, and that could affect the Fed's response. And of course, there are many knock -on effects because of that for markets, which could potentially cause certain price action for Bitcoin and alt. So in today's video, we're going to look at that and also how you can position your portfolio to weather the storm, so to speak, if things get worse. And hopefully, the context that I provide you can help you navigate these markets better if you're just a little bit confused at the moment, because we have altcoins tanking, we have Bitcoin holding up surprisingly well, and we have many different opinions flying around about the market at the moment, which makes it pretty confusing from an investment standpoint to make decisions. So firstly, I want to go through what's currently happening in terms of the market impact of the conflict. We did see Bitcoin hold up relatively well over the last day or so, although we did have that rejection of the 200 EMA. We have altcoins significantly down, we have a slight pullback across equities, gold and oil have ticked up slightly as well. What I want to do is look at how the markets could react based on past data of how the market has reacted to past geopolitical and military events. We do have a sample size of events, as you can see in front of you, ranging from Pearl Harbor to the Iraq war. Then after that, we are going to get into the more recent conflict, which was the Russia Ukraine conflict earlier in the year. What I want to say about this data is that the unpredictable and fast changing nature of such events does make it really hard to make short -term predictions. We don't know if things are going to escalate, we don't know if things are going to wind down. As I said, I'm not going to give geopolitical opinions in today's video, you have to work that out for yourself. But what we do know is these events are really unpredictable and that makes trading them a really hard task. So in my opinion, the best thing to do is just make sure your portfolio is really built to weather the storm. I'm going to talk about how you can do that in a second. Instead of trying to time the market, you know, I don't think you should make rash decisions and like sell a bunch of alts into Bitcoin or sell a bunch of Bitcoin into alts just based on changing macro conditions. Because just as they can change for the worst, they can also change for the better. Now in the past, typically what has happened is markets have recovered actually relatively quickly from wars and other geopolitical shocks despite experiencing initial volatility. So what you can see here is many of these other wars and geopolitical events have begun with major drawdowns. You can see minus 3 .4, minus 3, minus 7, etc. And then three months later, they've actually hit their peak in terms of drawdowns. But by the 12 -month mark, you can see that the average return across markets is actually 8 .6%, which is almost in line of that 10 % average that we've seen from equities historically. So pretty much there is no real effect over a longer duration of these events, although you do see volatility blips in the short term. Long term, there isn't a huge impact on markets, which I find super interesting. Obviously, the size of the conflict does dictate how quickly the markets recover and the severity of the conflict, how many countries are involved, etc. But I thought this was super interesting data. Now on the crypto side, how does crypto typically respond during conflicts? Well, we can look at the Russia -Ukraine war as one sample size that we have from 2022 to give us a little bit of data as to how crypto and more specifically Bitcoin actually responds. So you can see here on the date that the US said that an invasion of Ukraine could occur at any time, Bitcoin, Ripple, Ether, and Binance are the biggest currencies at the time actually responded positively. Then they ended up having major declines over the following week. Then they had a small bounce and then by the end of the month, that essentially leveled out to the same price performance as on the day that the US said an invasion could occur. So pretty much we can't really take much from this data. Crypto performed pretty much negligibly, although it did have a bit of volatility and although it did have some downside by the end of the month, it had pretty much fully recovered. And if we compare Bitcoin to the Nasdaq, the S &P and also the All Country World Index, although Bitcoin initially outperformed, the performance ended up being very similar to equities and the fact that this graph was taken from a week prior to the US stating that an invasion could occur, it pretty much skews the data because Bitcoin performed positively heading into the conflict. So there's not much we can take there. Bitcoin essentially performed the same as equities over that period as well. And if you look at Bitcoin versus gold, well, it pretty much paints the same picture, although US 10 -year treasuries uptick slightly, so did gold and so did Bitcoin. Bitcoin actually responded decently during the initial beginning of the conflict, but then it had huge declines in the preceding months. Obviously, April, May, June, July last year were bearish months for Bitcoin, but you got to remember, Luna happened during that period and then FTX happened later that year. So the entire macro landscape for Bitcoin wasn't exactly conducive of good price performance. So it's very hard to extrapolate any data from this, but it's just interesting to note that despite a lot of headlines coming out around the time, Bitcoin pretty much didn't show any signs of flinching in terms of its price action. But nevertheless, that war, although it did escalate, it didn't end up getting to the point where it was like a full -on world war. And in the beginning, a lot of people were speculating on that maybe being the case if more countries got involved. And I'm not going to get into my theories on the Israel war or anything, but what I do think is prudent to do in these times is really consider how does your portfolio look? I think it's a good reminder that all portfolios should have some sort of hedging mechanism. They should have some sort of diversification because it's not only geopolitical events that affect markets, but it can be any sort of major supply shock, major events like we saw in March 2020 due to the pandemic. There are many reasons why your portfolio could experience volatility. And I think it's wise and it's prudent to be planning and preparing for these eventualities. So Bob Elliott did an amazing thread. I want to break down some of the key points from this thread that basically outlines how certain asset classes end up responding during times of uncertainty. So he said, Wars by nature are inflationary as goods requiring raw materials are produced and then destroyed without an increase in productivity. They are also a bad time for cash since governments keep financing costs low. Governments typically finance their expenditure by increasing their bond issuance during these periods. In order to keep those financing costs low, bond yields are also kept low. After the initial rise in bonds in response to the conflict, and we actually did see that during the Russia war as well as I showed you before, bonds dropped nearly 50%. Stocks perform poorly initially during conflicts because companies priority shift and there is a significant uncertainty about who will win. In the US's case, stocks were in a drawdown for much of the period until rallying once it became clear a victory would come. So pretty much you have that initial decline as I showed you in the graph before, when there's an initial uncertainty around a war. And then what you do see is as certainty comes to light, markets hate uncertainty as we know. The markets typically recover and by the 12 month point, the effect on the market is essentially negligible. And that is the point that he is also reiterating here. Of course, the outcome was much worse for the losers in the war, where stocks fell roughly 80 % and even worse in real terms. So countries closer to home in this scenario do end up performing worse. Commodities, however, do very well during war periods. And this is the interesting Bitcoin argument. From the time of Pearl Harbor until the end of the war, commodities delivered a 100 % plus return. So of course, commodities in a time of mass money printing are considered like inflation hedges to some extent. And you do need commodities to finance conflicts. So commodities that could be silver, that can be gold, that can be also usable commodities like food. But Bitcoin has also started to come to light during this time. And conversations around Bitcoin as a digital gold safe haven type asset have also come to the forefront. Now, I think just Bitcoin's price action itself does suggest that it is a lot more immune to these market conditions than other assets. And that's because Bitcoin's kind of in this place where it's not really a safe haven asset yet. But at times, for example, during the banking collapse, it does decide to behave like a safe haven asset. And it's my full belief that eventually Bitcoin gets to a place where it really is a true representation of digital gold. But I think the data we have in front of us due to its heavy correlation to risk assets such as tech stocks does suggest that Bitcoin is still a risk on asset until proven otherwise. And because it does have that safe haven narrative behind it, which is why it performs better than altcoins during these periods, you still have to accept that we aren't fully there yet. But Bitcoin, I wouldn't call it a fully fledged commodity as such. So I wouldn't be speculating on Bitcoin in times of uncertainty. I think that is a mistake. You have to accept that it's correlated and treated like a tech stock in most cases. But I would also accept that Bitcoin holds up better than other assets during this period as well. And maybe better than some like, you know, really risk on assets like altcoins, etc. In a minute, I'm going to talk about Bitcoin specifically and some of the reasons why I think it's outperforming alts and also what I think is going to happen to alts as well. So make sure you stick around for that because that's really, really important for our portfolios at the moment. So on Thursday this week, we have US CPI data. This is a really important reading as the last two CPI readings have actually upticked, which have shown a slight uptick in inflation and have been the reason why the Fed have continued to keep rates higher for longer. So they've continued on their rate hiking cycle. But we do want to see inflation starting to come down because if inflation starts coming down, then the Fed maybe can relax their stance slightly. The market is expecting though that rates don't move. So they don't hike or they don't cut with an 89 % probability of that being the case during the next meeting, which is on November 1st. Then on December 13th, there's a 70 % probability of no hike as well. And it's over 50 % all the way until March next year. So pretty much market anticipating the Fed does not do much. And we kind of see the effect of the previous rate hike start to bake into the market. But if there is a material change due to any sort of escalation here in the Israel conflict, then that could definitely start to affect the Fed stance. Because if we do see CPI starting to uptick due to let's say a crazy pump in oil prices, then the Fed may have to respond by hiking rates. And I think this is your number one risk when it comes to crypto and the macro side of things. It's oil and commodities going absolutely crazy. And then that impacts CPI. And then that has obviously knock -on effects because transportation becomes more expensive and pretty much that gets baked into goods and services. You see inflation, what does Fed do to combat inflation? It hikes rates. So I'm not saying this will necessarily be the case because there's nothing to say that this will escalate to the point where it really starts to affect the oil price. There are certain scenarios where of course it would. But during Russia Ukraine, we did see oil significantly uptick and then we also saw it start to come back down. It did obviously pump in response to the news of the conflict breaking out. And although I'm not panicking yet, it's certainly something to take note of. If oil prices continue to rise, how could that affect inflation? And thus, how could that affect the Fed's response? I don't think it's any reason to make any material portfolio changes but it is definitely something to note. And you can kind of see here simplified how markets react if there is an escalation. Rates go up, oil goes up, stocks go down and of course crypto which is a risk on asset as well as stocks also goes down. So this is the probably the scenario you see happening but altcoins going down more than Bitcoin of course because Bitcoin does have an element of you know safe haven -esque nature to it whereas altcoins don't. But that is with escalation. If things start to alleviate and calm down over the next few weeks, I think you can go back into kind of business as usual mode where the market is a little less jolty and we kind of start focusing back on the macro and also on the crypto specific events. For example, the Bitcoin spot ETF and the halving next year as well. So now's the time where I look at the charts and I talk about Bitcoin and I talk about Ethereum because these are definitely the two leading charts in crypto at the moment. On the Bitcoin side, you can see clearly that we rejected twice off the 200 EMA. Bitcoin signs showing of slowing down every time it heads into that pocket of resistance at 28K. This is pretty much no man's land. The way I would describe Bitcoin right now is it's in the middle of a range. So you've got your range extremity. So that's the lower end of the range right now at 25K. You have the upper echelon of the range up here at 30K. We tested and we ended up being rejected after multiple tests of the 31K level. Now we're just in the middle. So we're actually below the 200 MA which is marking out the mid -range perfectly at the moment. Until there's a concrete flip of this level, I don't think we can assert when necessarily heading up to the top of the range either. So what you would want to see on Bitcoin is it actually flip and not just deviate above but hold above. So close above on the daily the 200 MA and then start to make that thrust to the upwards bound of the range. That is something you would you want to be looking out for if you're a Bitcoin bull. But of course, we have rejected off this level. So if Bitcoin starts to make higher lows, then you can kind of start targeting this 25K level again. Because we're in the middle of the range and Bitcoin isn't exhibiting any momentum to either side just quite yet. It's pretty much I think for most people a no trade zone. Of course, you can pick off little altcoin scalps here and then. You can DCA into you know your favorite coins, Bitcoin ETH long term of course. We're still positioning ourselves for 2024 and 2025. But in terms of like any trades right now, you probably want to target more like extremity -based trades. So you know shorting when Bitcoin gets here or potentially longing a substantiated breakout or looking to take a support long at the 25K zone. Either end of the spectrum here I think is better than trying to punt in the middle of the range. That's just how I feel about Bitcoin. But how will altcoins continue to respond? Because altcoins have been hammered over the last week. And look, it's pretty much undeniable that dominance keeps going up and up and up. And the truth of the matter is A. Bitcoin responds better during times of uncertainty like we are in at the moment because it's considered by some to be a digital gold. And B. It's got the much stronger catalyst behind it. It's got the Bitcoin spot ETF. It's got the Bitcoin halving. We know that Bitcoin typically leads into the halving versus other altcoins. Bitcoin leads the beginning of cycles. Alts tend to get rotated into later when the market goes more risk -on and gets euphoric. In the early stages, Bitcoin tends to outperform. And Bitcoin dominance is in a clear uptrend until you see a clear reversal here. It's not altcoin season yet. It's not altcoin time to shine. Now, it's really a Bitcoin market. For me, that's why I've kept myself relatively capitalized in Bitcoin. I think around the 50 % mark, 40 % to 50%. And then, you know, the rest is Ethereum and alts. But it really depends on how risk -on you want to go in this environment. If you've got enough discretionary income to continue averaging into altcoin positions and you're willing just to accept the loss in the short term and hold for next cycle. Well, maybe you're in the boat where you just keep DCing down into alts and eventually wait for that rotation. I don't think a lot of people are in that boat though. It would take balls of steel to execute a strategy like that. And although I follow that to an extent, I can't lie. I am keeping some significant exposure to Bitcoin because I still believe that it does lead into next cycle. And Ethereum, on the other hand, is looking quite weak. So if we look at ETHBTC, it's finally made its way into my blue box which is my major support box for Ethereum BTC. Now, for the ETH bulls, you really want to see a reversal here or things could definitely accelerate to the downside. Note, we did get deviation below. So it's okay if ETHBTC drops below and then reclaims. That's fine. That's normal market behavior. But if you do see a substantiated breakdown below this level, then I think the warning bells are starting to go off a little bit because your next target isn't till the 3 -5 level. And at that point, ETHBTC will already be down another 38%. That's going to send altcoins spiraling because ETH is the leader of the alt market. It's really important for Ethereum to perform well, for alts to perform well. And when ETH's bleeding, you best believe altcoins are going to bleed. So ETHBTC right now looking quite shaky. What you do want to see if to be a buyer of this is a reversal here because we do have this slanting trend line. What you want to wait for is a breakout of this trend and that will be confirmation to long into ETHBTC. You can actually make a support buy at this level. If you are a believer in Ethereum and you want to DC in or maybe switching Bitcoin out for ETH. I mean, now technically is a support buy of ETHBTC but because it doesn't have momentum, I definitely wouldn't go all in until there's some sort of concrete reversal. You always want to wait for that confirmed pivot before putting your major size in. When it comes to DCing into positions, you can get an initial position in maybe between 20 % and 30%. But your major size to that remaining 70 % to 80 % should be reserved for a confirmed reversal. That's what you're waiting for on ETHBTC. There will be some on -chain signs for altcoins specifically that you are getting a reversal. One way that I actually monitor this is on Kyber AI. So Kyber AI is essentially a tool that enables you to gauge momentum using their proprietary AI mechanisms. So they have something called the Kyber Score which works out the momentum of an altcoin. So you'll be able to see whether based on the on -chain price action an altcoin is shifting from bearish to bullish territory or bullish to bearish territory. I'll give you an example of a strategy that I actually use on Kyber AI. What I do when I'm trading majors because we're talking here about an ETH reversal and a majors reversal is I go on to Kyber AI which is at the top here. I go on to rankings then I click all. Then I filter by market cap of more than 500 million because unless I'm trying to like scalp smaller coins typically for the bigger coins I'll use more than 500 million to filter and you know look at the major caps to try and find major reversals. Then what I'll do is I'll sort by Kyber Score and when we do see like an ETHBTC reversal and I look to get into altcoin positions I'll try and line this up with confluence for coins that are flipped from bearish into bullish territory and have held bullish territory because these are in four hour increments. I like to see a sample size over like a two to three day period that an altcoin has actually started to exhibit bullish momentum. So then I would go into the coin let's say take Arbitrum for example it's currently neutral right now let's say it starts to uptick. Once I affirm that it upticks I would go into on -chain analysis and then start looking at whether we are seeing significant buying starting to come in for the coin and you can see here they also have AI which amalgamates the buys and the sells to see whether there's more buyers or more on -chain sellers. You can also look at trading volume so you want to look for that major spike in volume because a move a reversal with no volume isn't really a confirmed move. You do want to see buyers step in with size so what I also look for is a volume uptick. I don't really like when there's not a volume uptick but there's a huge price pump typically that indicates that it's futures volume coming in so it's like speculation. So you also want to have a look at your CVDs on an application like Velo which can tell you whether it's spot positioning or futures positioning. Of course spot positioning is much better for sustainable pumps otherwise you can end up getting wrecked on the futures because people get liquidated then price tends to wicker and come back down. Also net flow to whale wallets is another pretty cool metric because I'll sort by month here so you can see it more clearly. You can essentially see whether the whales are buying or whether the whales are selling. So if you see positive inflow typically that means whales are starting to position themselves. So buying if you see negative net flow that generally means that whales are starting to sell. This is also an indicator that I'll measure. So that helps you get confluence on like specific altcoins when ETH does reverse just thought I would share that strategy because I haven't talked about it much on the show but it's something that I actively do. I love monitoring the majors because yeah sometimes on Kyber AI it can get a little bit distracting seeing all these like lower cap coins although that's great for on -chain scalping strategies. It's not the best if you're looking to trade majors and a lot of the time when the market first starts to reverse I want to look at the majors before I start looking at the small caps because why would I jump straight into small caps? I want to jump into the majors first. If you want to use Kyber AI you can sign up to beta access using the link in the description. For crypto bound to subscribers only we are expediting the sign -up process. So typically you in some situations would have to wait weeks or months to get access to the platform but for bound to subscribers only we are going to be speeding up the process to give you early access. So if you do want to use Kyber AI I've been using it in my research all the time you can click the link in the description and use it. It's completely free. So it's a completely free application that you can use to level up your crypto research and trading. Now why is Ethereum dropping so much more than Bitcoin and why is Bitcoin dominance just rapidly rising? Well on the ETH side of things there are a lot of ETH specific headwinds right now. You have the foundation actively selling Ethereum which is obviously not good. I don't necessarily blame the foundation. Like obviously they need to sell some ETH to keep themselves running. They have a DevCon coming up etc. I don't blame them like others but still it's not publicly a very good sign. The other factor is ETH is now technically inflationary because the activity has dried up in the crypto market. ETH has now ticked into inflationary territory despite it being deflationary for months. That's not great. That does put extra supply pressure on ETH. And speaking of supply pressure we also had the hacker who has been selling off Ethereum that he hacked during the whole FTX liquidation thing. So there's a few reasons why Ethereum is not performing well. EIP also got delayed which was the ETH's biggest catalyst. So look the ETH BTC trade is one that I took and then I got stopped out on and now I'm essentially just waiting again to get back in. So anyone that wants an update on that that's essentially my position here. I'm not entering any new ETH BTC position and the last position I made was on the hope that we got a bounce on the one day chart. We didn't get a bounce and that's exactly why I set stop losses folks because things just kept going down and down and down since then. So ETH BTC that's pretty much where it sits. ETH certainly looking bearish versus Bitcoin. If you're a long -term accumulator of ETH you probably like this relative weakness. If you're committed to DCing all the way down I think if you try and catch that falling knife you can get a lower cost basis because we accept we won't be able to always time the market. So with ETH that's something I'm happy to just DC into. In terms of the alts a little bit harder to catch a falling knife just because the price acceleration to the downside is usually much more drastic than you'll see on a token like Ethereum. By the way the data ownership protocol testnet is coming very very soon and this is what I'm super excited about because it's an application that's going to allow you essentially obfuscate your crypto assets to choose what you show to the public and what you don't show to the public. So you will essentially have your own choice over what you do with your data if you use the protocol. So you can essentially execute swaps and keep those swaps to yourself or hold assets in your wallet and keep those assets to yourself but having it done in an immutable decentralized fashion on the blockchain. So super excited for that testnet and it's going to give you the ability to pick up some DOP tokens as they're giving away 1 % of their DOP supply to early users of the product who are going to be rewarded. So just keep your eye out for that over the coming days. I've had a chance to play around with it and it's really really awesome. I can't wait to run you guys through it on the show because I think it's an application that we need especially with times like these when privacy is becoming more and more important in crypto. So there's a link in the description to DOP to check it out but that test that's going to be available soon to enable you to get your hands on some tokens as well. And I hope you enjoyed today's show. If you found it interesting let me know in the comments below.
Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
A highlight from 1397: Bitcoin Will Soar to $1 Million - Max Keiser
"Welcome, everyone, to another episode in today's show. Bitcoin's echoing March 2020 Black Swan crash. I'll be breaking down this latest research, as well as U .S. regulator slapped trading firm with one point seven billion dollars plus, with a penalty for defrauding thousands of victims, literally taking twenty nine thousand four hundred and twenty Bitcoin. Also breaking news, Vitalik's account has officially been hacked with over six hundred and ninety one thousand dollars drain thus far from victim wallets. We'll also be discussing crypto tycoon SBF seeks release from jail over trial prep and laptop complaints. We'll also be discussing many crypto currencies poised to benefit from Coinbase's institutional lending service. We'll also be discussing the latest from Max Kaiser, quitting him here. El Salvador bonds up 90 percent this year, the best performing in the world. Bukele plus Bitcoin equals rocket ship to the moon. He also says that El Salvador debt will soon be trading at a premium and volcano energy is powering El Salvador to become a Bitcoin powerhouse and that El Salvador will be debt free by 2030. He also says the Bitcoin has already and will continue to outperform everything else so spectacularly by one hundred X or more. I'm going to be breaking down his multiple seven figure Bitcoin price prediction. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market, all this plus so much more in today's show.
Tascha Labs Podcast | Crypto Investment through Macro Lens | Web3 | Blockchain
A highlight from How to Be in Sync with Market | Next Crypto Cycle | Is Ethereum Good Long-Term Investment?
"Hey guys, you are listening to the Tasha Labs podcast and as I mentioned last time, today I want to do a Q &A about some questions I received about the topic that we covered last time which is how to be in sync with market cycles or the market rhythm. So I got some interesting questions and I will be covering several of them including one question about how do you balance like being a contrarian versus going with the market flow. Secondly, there is a question about how can you also use some of the market cycle indicators to apply to individual stock or ticker or token. And certainly there is a question about is it a good idea to build models to automate some of these market cycle judgments. And lastly, I want to cover a question someone asked about longer term crypto cycles and how I think about like long term investing for crypto for like a bitcoin, ethereum, that kind of thing. Okay, so those are basically the things I'm going to go through today and first question it says you would advise to go with the market trend but the best investors are contrarians? Really? Like Warren Buffett said that when everyone else is losing their head you should keep yours. How do you balance between being a contrarian and going with the market trends? So first of all, I don't even know what a contrarian means unless you give me a very specific definition of what this person do. What does this person do in situation A and what does he do in situation B and that kind of thing like very quantifiable action. Otherwise, I just don't know what this means. People can post on Twitter all day long, oh market's too high, market's going to correct or we're at the bottom. People can spit out opinions all day long but unless they have an action plan attached to that opinion then I don't know what it means when you say someone is a contrarian and is he always a contrarian or just at some step of the market cycle that he becomes a quote -unquote contrarian because I can tell you for any type of investors no matter what your strategy or framework is at some point if you're doing your job about your market cycle analysis you will realize okay maybe this is the point and market will start to turn because you start to see some sign of market cycle turning but maybe the majority of trend the if you look at the price action is still going in the way of the previous trend. Do you call that a contrarian but you don't make that decision. You don't do that kind of judgment call every day. That's actually a relatively rare event and also that's one. There is no saying like you are contrarian and once and for all you are always a contrarian. Maybe there is a point based on your market cycle judgment and your framework, your assessment is that at current level maybe this price is going to correct or the opposite and the price is going to bounce and you have a strategy attached to it and that is different depends on what kind of investor you are, depends on your framework. For example, if you see the COVID -19 in March 2020 market was in freefall. Some people were shorting the hell out of the market but at some point maybe your market indicator says well the market is oversold we can be ready for a bounce guys so then our execution plan is to not initiate any short positions anymore and get ready to cover our existing positions if we see signs A, B, and C. That is a very specific action plan according to a very specific market judgment in terms of where we are in the cycle. Do you call that contrarian? Maybe because the market may be still falling but you see some sign of a market turning. But as opposed to maybe another type of investor who's more like a hardcore valuable investor would say we'll have the same judgment about the market say okay we think market is oversold here it's overreacting and it's overreacted too much and now it's a good opportunity to start looking for drastically undervalued asset to get them at a cheap price. And then that will be your action plan and you start looking for that type of things but that will be a very different action plan compared to the first type of investor even though you have broadly the same assessment about the market. Which one do you call contrarian? So I just don't find these very broad adages and general advice is helpful unless you put them in a specific context and because they're just not specific enough.
Cryptocurrency for Beginners: with Crypto Casey
A highlight from Bitcoin to Crash? Spike? Sideways through Dec 2023? (Tides Turning Pro-Crypto Globally! )
"Are the bears back in town for an extended stay or just a short getaway? Is this price action natural random market whims or was this a planned crash so Wall Street can accumulate as much cheap Bitcoin as possible before the SEC approves the highly anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF? Is this the final shakeout? Well, here's what we know for sure. When measured by leverage liquidation, this recent crash in the crypto market is the biggest price since FTX collapsed back in November of 2022 when Bitcoin dropped to around 15k. In taking a look at the Bitcoin chart, the price has fallen below the 200 -day moving average which is bearish. In taking a look at the main technical indicator I personally use to spot changes in long -term trends, the BSI or Bitcoin Strength Indicator. If we close below this 26k price level for the week, which is by the time this video is posted, we will know if it did or not, and if it does close below we are likely facing several weeks of sideways price action trending downwards. However, if we are able to stay above it, we may recover and continue the bullish trend we flipped into back in January of 2023. The last time the BSI flipped from bullish to bearish was back here in November 2021 when we reached the most recent all -time highs and the bearish trend continued until it flipped here like we said in January 2023. And now we are on the cusp of potentially flipping back to a bearish trend. So as crypto investors, it's important to note that the year before the Bitcoin halving is always a bit chaotic and right now the halving is slated to happen in March or April of 2024. And if you don't know what the Bitcoin halving is, check out this video guide for beginners by clicking on the link above. So the most recent scenario we can refer to is the year before the last halving where we see this bullish trend from April 2019 to September 2019 and then these four months of sideways bearish price movement until January 2020. And then of course here in March 2020 we have the black swan event coronavirus until finally here in May 2020 the halving happens and we flip bullish and start the journey to all -time highs. So if history repeats itself, we could be entering a sideways downward bearish trend for the next several months or weeks possibly through the rest of 2023. Or we recover quickly and remain on track or really anything can happen. We could have another significant drop or a crazy spike or boring sideways movement. At the end of the day we must take into consideration that Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the year so far, up 80%. Second best was IT stocks up only half as much as Bitcoin at 40 % and it also beat out other stocks, bonds, gold and everything else. And we also saw a few weeks ago Bitcoin turns less volatile than the S &P 500, tech stocks and gold. July saw lowest Bitcoin trading volume since November 2020, Digital Token's 30 -day volatility is sitting at 5 -year lows. And then just a couple days ago Bitcoin and Ethereum are now less volatile than oil according to Kiko Research. The summer doldrums are hitting Bitcoin and Ethereum hard, dampening the asset's historic volatility to multi -year lows. So my random wild guess is given the small market cap of the entire crypto industry, it's still extremely prone to manipulation. And this time around a lot of things are different in that we have political leaders all around the world talking about it and adopting it, as well as huge asset managers in financial institutions like BlackRock and Wall Street talking about it and adopting it. And they will do anything to shake out the cheapest Bitcoin they can from the weak hands before the SEC approves a spot Bitcoin ETF, allowing a ridiculous amount of money that's been on the sidelines due to regulatory uncertainty to start flooding in. Let me know what you think in the comments below. So what else has been going on? What should we be aware of? What should our game plan be for the rest of the year? Hello, I'm Crypto Casey and welcome to another episode of Crypto This Week. Let's take a look at the global news stories and the macro environment at large.
Markets Daily Crypto Roundup
A highlight from Crypto Update | Coinbase Acquires Stake in Circle
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. Hi, I'm Michelle Musso here with your crypto markets roundup. On today's show, we're talking Bitcoin, Coinbase, Circle and more. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a new source and does not provide investment advice. Bitcoin and Ether held steady over the past 24 hours. XRP and Cardano prices slid for a second day as traders eased off riskier alternative cryptocurrencies with no major token in the green. On -chain data analytics tool Santiment noted mentions of quote, buy the dip unquote on social media forums has faded amid the sideways price action. A technical analytics indicator shows extreme oversold conditions in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as surging bond yields weigh over risk assets. Bitcoin's 14 -day relative strength index has dropped well below 30, indicating oversold conditions. The indicator has dropped to its lowest since the coronavirus -induced crash of March 2020. Relative strength index is a momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100 that shows the asset's recent price movement in comparison with its average price movement over a specific period, usually 14 days. And now a look at last week's Bitcoin crash in the macro context. Bitcoin suffered one of its more dramatic declines ever last Thursday, at least in part thanks to the realization that a strengthening economy means interest rates are likely to stay on the rise. This week brings the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole economic symposium with a keynote speech Friday morning from U .S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. After last week's Fed meeting minutes, there seems to be a consensus in the market that Powell will skew on the hawkish side during the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Stay tuned for after the break when we'll take a look at Coinbase and Circle. Meet the all -new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned, modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Not investment advice. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated. The unpredictable nature of the crypto assets market can lead to loss of funds and profits, may be subject to capital gains tax. Welcome back. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is getting a minority stake in Circle Internet Financial. Additionally, the companies are dissolving their Sentry Consortium partnership that had issued USD Coin, the world's second largest stablecoin. As part of the move, Circle will bring issuance and governance of USDC fully in -house. Also, six more blockchains will gain native support of USDC, bringing the total number of supported blockchains to 15. Coinbase and Circle, in a blog post and interviews with CoinDesk, did not disclose the size of the stake acquired by Coinbase. Coinbase did not give Circle cash for the stake, according to a person familiar with the matter. Also, Coinbase and Circle did not identify the six additional blockchains. Back in September, Circle said it planned to add Polkadot, NEAR, Optimism and Cosmos in 2023. Subsequent to that, Coinbase started its own blockchain called Base. There have been recent techonic shifts in the world of dollar peg stablecoins. Most recently, fintech giant PayPal took a step to shake up the dominance of Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC by introducing its own stablecoin token. PayPal could prove a worthy adversary to the existing stablecoins given its deep ties in payments and remittances. We'll now take a look at the latest in SPF's ongoing hearings. Sam Beckman -Fried pleaded not guilty to fraud and money laundering charges tied to the collapse of his crypto empire FTX last year, a court appearance today. The FTX founder was arraigned in the Southern District of New York courthouse after a new indictment accused him of using customer funds for everything from buying personal real estate to political donations. Beckman -Fried's trial is currently set to kick off in early October. And that's it for today's show. I'm Michelle Musso here with Markets Daily. Have a great day. And that's our show for today. Thank you for listening. I'm Michelle Musso with Markets Daily. And for those of you who are still with us, we'd love to hear what you think. You can email us at podcast at coindesk .com with the subject line Markets Daily. This episode was produced and edited by Eleanor Paul with executive production by Jared Swartz. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. .
CoinDesk Podcast Network
A highlight from MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Coinbase Acquires Stake in Circle
"This episode of Markets Daily is sponsored by Kraken. It's Tuesday, August 22nd, 2023, and this is Markets Daily from CoinDesk. Hi, I'm Michelle Musso here with your crypto markets roundup. On today's show, we're talking Bitcoin, Coinbase, Circle and more. And just a reminder, CoinDesk is a new source and does not provide investment advice. Bitcoin and Ether held steady over the past 24 hours. XRP and Cardano prices slid for a second day as traders eased off riskier alternative cryptocurrencies with no major token in the green. On -chain data analytics tool Santiment noted mentions of quote, buy the dip unquote on social media forums has faded amid the sideways price action. A technical analytics indicator shows extreme oversold conditions in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as surging bond yields weigh over risk assets. Bitcoin's 14 -day relative strength index has dropped well below 30, indicating oversold conditions. The indicator has dropped to its lowest since the coronavirus -induced crash of March 2020. Relative strength index is a momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100 that shows the asset's recent price movement in comparison with its average price movement over a specific period, usually 14 days. And now a look at last week's Bitcoin crash in the macro context. Bitcoin suffered one of its more dramatic declines ever last Thursday, at least in part thanks to the realization that a strengthening economy means interest rates are likely to stay on the rise. This week brings the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole economic symposium with a keynote speech Friday morning from U .S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. After last week's Fed meeting minutes, there seems to be a consensus in the market that Powell will skew on the hawkish side during the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Stay tuned for after the break when we'll take a look at Coinbase and Circle. Meet the all -new Kraken Pro, the powerful, customizable, beautiful way to trade crypto. It's Kraken's most powerful trading platform ever, packed with trading features like advanced order management and analytics tools, all in a redesigned, modular trading interface. So head to pro .kraken .com and trade like a pro. Not investment advice. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated. The unpredictable nature of the crypto assets market can lead to loss of funds and profits, may be subject to capital gains tax. Welcome back. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is getting a minority stake in Circle Internet Financial. Additionally, the companies are dissolving their Sentry Consortium partnership that had issued USD Coin, the world's second largest stablecoin. As part of the move, Circle will bring issuance and governance of USDC fully in -house. Also, six more blockchains will gain native support of USDC, bringing the total number of supported blockchains to 15. Coinbase and Circle, in a blog post and interviews with CoinDesk, did not disclose the size of the stake acquired by Coinbase. Coinbase did not give Circle cash for the stake, according to a person familiar with the matter. Also, Coinbase and Circle did not identify the six additional blockchains. Back in September, Circle said it planned to add Polkadot, NEAR, Optimism and Cosmos in 2023. Subsequent to that, Coinbase started its own blockchain called Base. There have been recent techonic shifts in the world of dollar peg stablecoins. Most recently, fintech giant PayPal took a step to shake up the dominance of Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC by introducing its own stablecoin token. PayPal could prove a worthy adversary to the existing stablecoins given its deep ties in payments and remittances. We'll now take a look at the latest in SPF's ongoing hearings. Sam Beckman -Fried pleaded not guilty to fraud and money laundering charges tied to the collapse of his crypto empire FTX last year, a court appearance today. The FTX founder was arraigned in the Southern District of New York courthouse after a new indictment accused him of using customer funds for everything from buying personal real estate to political donations. Beckman -Fried's trial is currently set to kick off in early October. And that's it for today's show. I'm Michelle Musso here with Markets Daily. Have a great day. And that's our show for today. Thank you for listening. I'm Michelle Musso with Markets Daily. And for those of you who are still with us, we'd love to hear what you think. You can email us at podcast at coindesk .com with the subject line Markets Daily. This episode was produced and edited by Eleanor Paul with executive production by Jared Swartz. And just a reminder, Coindesk is a news source and does not provide investment advice. .
Crypto Banter
A highlight from LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED BITCOIN RALLIED 489% (Will History Repeat?)
"Pattern played out on Bitcoin, price rallied over 400 % to make new all -time highs. So in today's video, we are going to be unpacking the data to work out what's next for Bitcoin and will it mirror this previous massive move. Now, just to break down the agenda for today's show, it's going to be a massive one to contextualize where we currently sit in the market. I'm going to be discussing what are Bitcoin's upcoming catalysts because there are two major things that are going to drive price over the next couple of months. I also want to discuss where do we currently sit in the current cycle? Are we entering a new bull market? Are we still in the depths of a bear market? And when can we look at a significant price recovery? Because even though we've swung off the lows to reach those figures that you probably hear floating around like 60K, 100K, Bitcoin is going to need to have a massive move and of course a massive catalyst to get it there. So we're going to talk about when that could happen based on where we are in the current cycle. And next, I want to talk about what's the best window to accumulate. So in the context of the data I'm about to show you, what does this mean for actually buying Bitcoin and buying altcoins? How will altcoins respond to Bitcoin price action? That is all stuff I'm going to be talking about today. So that is the agenda. And without further ado, let's kick it off with point number one. What are Bitcoin's upcoming catalysts? Well, there are two that I want to talk about today. The first one is Bitcoin spot ETFs. And actually over the last few days, we had some massive announcements regarding the Bitcoin spot ETF. Now, the Bitcoin spot ETF news obviously caused a massive rally in the Bitcoin price when it was first announced, but we have seen a slow bleed over the past few weeks as we've started to see the SEC delayed the approvals or rejections, mind you, of some of these ETFs. But I want to remind you just how big of a catalyst this actually is for Bitcoin, considering it's going to allow retail and participants institutional to now access Bitcoin via the stock market. So your parents, your grandparents, people that may not necessarily be so used to using crypto exchanges will now be able to talk to their stockbroker or use their brokerage app to buy Bitcoin. And I think this could be a huge vertical for retail adoption and also institutions as it will now allow them to put Bitcoin on their balance sheet within the current regulatory frameworks. It also gives more validity, I think, to Bitcoin as an asset that could potentially lead to more fund managers, more companies, et cetera, adding Bitcoin to their books. It is huge, but obviously the market is waiting out for this approval via the SEC. BlackRock clearly being the company that has the biggest AUM, so assets under management in the world, leading the pack here in terms of positioning. Although we will see ARK get their decision slightly before BlackRock because they filed first. So let's look at some of the latest updates that we have had in the ETF realm, considering it's such a big pivotal moment for Bitcoin and as an extension of that crypto. So as expected, a couple of days ago, we did have the SEC delaying the ARK Invest filing. So it was officially delayed and there was no decision made on grayscale to do with their case versus the SEC in trying to convert their current fund, which is a futures fund into an ETF. So those were the first two things that we were waiting out for the grayscale trust conversion, as well as the ARK approval, none of which we got a confirmed answer on because ARK was delayed and there was no grayscale decision yet. But here are the dates that you need to look out for because the SEC can't keep kicking the can down the road forever. Eventually, they're going to have to make a decision. And although they have the right to essentially delay the decision one, two, three times on the fourth time, they do need to make a decision. However, they can choose to approve or just flat out reject it in any moment leading up to that final deadline. So we had the first deadline where we did see a delay from the ARK ETF, but we do have some more deadlines that are soon approaching here. You can see the dates clearly. We have the 17th of October, the 16th of October as well for iShares and Bitwise. We are now probably going to see ARK get delayed into its next threshold here, which is in November. So what I would keep my eye out for is some of the September and October approvals. So the next closest deadline is the first deadline on iShares and Bitwise on the 2nd of September and the 1st of September. So the 1st of September is the date to watch that is in two weeks when it comes to the spot Bitcoin ETF approval. If denied, then we are looking towards mid -October for the second round of deadlines. And then we also have the ARK one to look forward to slightly after that in November. So they can keep delaying it. But what we do know is that their final deadlines will start to hit on January 10th for ARK. And if that's approved, then that should lead to the approvals of more of these deadlines for iShares, Bitwise, etc. leading down the list in March. So January is the first final deadline and then the rest of the final deadlines hit in March. But September 1st is the next date that you need to watch out for in terms of the next potential day where we could see an approval or rejection. But because they're being so slow with ARK and they decided to delay and because they decided to not give a grayscale decision, I do anticipate that they will kick the can down the road a little bit further, which will keep investors waiting. And clearly this is what investors are waiting for when you look at Bitcoin price action. It's the biggest story in the market. And it did result in this move of the 200 MA of 23 % to the upside from 25K to 31K for Bitcoin. But now investors are just starting to get a little impatient, a little bit bored. I think the whole Bitcoin spot ETF narrative was overplayed during this run -up. And this is where you see some sellers start to exit the market. So some of the weaker hands now starting to exit that were holding on for a approval pump. Now, I still do think we get an approval pump by the way, because the probability from Bloomberg analysts is 65 % that we get a spot ETF Bitcoin approval. So if it is 65 % and you want to assume the market is pricing it in at 65%, if it gets approved, well, there's a discrepancy there of 35 % that the market isn't baking in that will likely result in a pump. So I do think if we get approved, this will lead to the next wave up for Bitcoin. And if you do want to take a similar move to what happened before of 25%, let's assume the same move is replicated from the current levels, then that could potentially take us to the 36 to 38K price target for Bitcoin. And that could happen as soon as September 1st or as late as January next year, depending on what happens with some of these filings. They also may ask for amendments, but definitely at some point, we will get a concrete decision. What happens on the flip side? If it is rejected, well, if it's rejected, I do think Bitcoin comes back down to that 25 to 26K level. If we are assuming that the market stays constant. So let's assume nothing happens in the macro realm. Nothing happens with the finance and the Coinbase cases and everything is the same as today. And we get a rejection today. Then I think we would come down to 26 ish K in that environment. But of course, things are going to happen in the meantime in the lead up to a potential rejection. But I am on the bullish side that we will get approval because they have made multiple amendments. BlackRock also has never really lost any of its spot filings. It has an exemplary track record. It's only ever gotten rejected once in its history. And when the biggest asset manager in the world decides to file, you better believe they've done their due diligence. And I believe that it will set a precedent for some of these other funds who are now copying the structure of the BlackRock ETF filing. So I am cautiously optimistic there that we will get an approval, but we will just need to wait for those dates that I mentioned. All right. What is your catalyst number two? It's of course the Bitcoin halving. Remember after I talk about catalyst number two, the Bitcoin halving, we are going to get into the question of where are we now versus previous cycles and what's next for Bitcoin based on the data that you're probably eager to hear about. That's in the title of the video. We're getting into that. But the second really important event that we have to analyze here is the Bitcoin halving. And let's look at the historical performance of Bitcoin leading into the halving and after the halving to try and map where we are in the cycle before we bring in some other data. So the Bitcoin halving is now 235 days away. If you don't know what the Bitcoin halving is, essentially the issuance of Bitcoin to Bitcoin miners will be halved. It's halved every four years. And essentially over time, this creates more scarcity for the Bitcoin asset. Now, miners essentially earning less means less Bitcoin is coming onto the market and it does have an effect on supply, of course. And when supply is contracted in the market, then price tends to find a new equilibrium if demand stays constant. That is a law of economics. However, the Bitcoin halving isn't just a supply side factor. It's actually more of a demand side factor. Now, that may sound counterintuitive at first because it's not a demand side event, but the hype leading into the halving and the narrative that it's assumed in its own right actually creates demand for Bitcoin as an asset. And because the Bitcoin issuance is going down, people start to believe it's more scarce. And as it becomes more scarce, demand actually also increases. So it is a supply and a demand side event, which is why historically combined with some other business cycle reasons, the Bitcoin halving has resulted in huge positive price performance for Bitcoin. If we look based on previous cycles and this cycle in terms of the four -year halving cycles, Bitcoin is currently 82 % of the way there towards the next halving. And typically what we've seen into halvings is a nice run -up. So we have seen a run -up during this period in the 2017 cycle. We actually saw a decline followed by a run -up post halving last cycle. But if you just look at the data, we know that typically roughly a year after the Bitcoin halving is when you get your blow off top. So it happened in 2013. The blow off top happened around a year later. It also happened again in 2017. The blow off top happened around a year later. It also happened in 2021. The blow off top happened about a year later after the halving. So if we take that into account and we look at the halving cycle, then you could start to affirm, yes, we're heading into the next cycle, but Bitcoin won't put in its peak until 2025. Because if the halving happens in April 2024, as per the calendar here, and blow off tops tend to happen a bit later, then we're actually looking at 2025 for the absolute Bitcoin highs. But Bitcoin tends to perform very well around the halving period as well. So we do see the uptick start to begin post halving. So if you line that up to this cycle, that would be April to May. We're going to talk about a few caveats with it and why this cycle may be different though. But that is essentially how Bitcoin behaves in the midst of Bitcoin halving. And you can see here that Bitcoin has historically been very predictable, aligning to this four -year cycle with new highs occurring shortly after the halving every single time. It's actually a bit less than a year. It was 240 days and 220 days, but that would still put us into the early stages of 2025 if you were to follow the previous cycle. But I guess the major caveat is point number one that we talked about, the spot ETF narrative, and this could drive enough demand for Bitcoin to speed up this halving cycle. So in my opinion, we could actually see a peak earlier if we can affirm we are following the halving cycle due to external catalysts, because not every market is the same. We have seen previous halvings, as I just showed you, for example, 2014, where Bitcoin actually reached its all -time high very quickly after the halving, just 90 days. And the time that Bitcoin takes to peak after the halving has actually diminished in 2021 versus the 2018 cycle. So that was also an interesting thing to note as well. We saw the absolute peak happened to 20 days after, but that first initial peak, if that was to be the all -time high, it would actually be closer to 160 days after. So not quite that full year that some people are anticipating. So 2024 could end up putting in the peak, especially if that spot ETF gets approved. But there is a lot of data based on the current macro cycle I want to get into in a few minutes, which can contextualize it a little bit better. I'm just kind of giving the very basic halving explanation to help you understand where we sit in halving terms. Benjamin Cowen said, during the last three pre -halving years, Bitcoin fell below its bull market support band for August slash September. The purpose of this correction is to flush out as many of the scams and cash grabs prior to the halving. No guarantee it happens this time, but certainly a strong possibility. And that's something I will say, even though we may be in the beginning of a new cycle, and we'll get into more of that evidence later, of course, you still have to take into account that there's still major flush outs. I mean, just look at what happened during the March 2020 crash. Of course, that was a black swan event, but there was a huge flush out and a lot of old coins got wrecked during that period. And we tend to see these flushes for Bitcoin. You could see it happened here in 2016. You could see it happened here in 2020, of course, even in 2019, you see these major flushes that happen even in the lead up to new all -time highs. So don't fade the possibility of getting buying opportunities just because we are in a new cycle. There are still major drawdowns and people panic. And this is where the weak hands get shaken up because they think, Oh my God, we're in a bear market again. Everyone sell, sell, sell. Whereas in reality, it's very normal for Bitcoin to correct the course 20 to 30 % on the run up to a new all -time high. That is very normal price action from Bitcoin. And that is where you do get your really good buying opportunities for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and of course, all coins, which often do get erect, heavier than Bitcoin in the lead up. I just want to reiterate this point about this spot ETF being a major event to keep your eye on on the 1st of September. That's going to be your next major announcement there. I also found this in relation to the halving super interesting. So Delphi Digital, we're going to go into their report in a minute, which looks into where we currently sit in the cycle, posted this photo, which basically shows you where we currently sit in relation to Bitcoin halvings and they can map the Bitcoin price cycle versus the Bitcoin halving date. And you can see here, we see the halving, we see the peak, then we see typically around a two -year bear market. Once again, we had the halving, we saw the peak, then around a two -year bear market. And if that does line up with the current cycle, then you would start to see an uptick now heading into the end of 2023 and early 2024. History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes. So this might be a good chart for you to screenshot or something if you just want to contextualize where we sit in terms of the halving. Now, let's get into the next question. Where the hell are we versus previous cycles? And what's next? So there is a lot of macro data, which is now playing into the current cycle. So the cycle doesn't operate in isolation, in my opinion. I don't think the Bitcoin halving is ever the sole reason for a Bitcoin pump. There are other market conditions, for example, quantitative easing last cycle, which contributed. So we want to look at what the contributors are this cycle and try and use some of our knowledge around the cyclical nature of Bitcoin and the business cycle to refer back to where we currently sit. That is how we're going to get the best estimation of where we sit this cycle. And there are a couple really amazing reports I want to break down for you. And it should definitively answer the question in this video, where do we sit versus previous cycles? And it should really help answer that question, what is next for Bitcoin? Before we answer that question, I just want to give a quick shout out to one of our official show partner Smart Decks. It's a very, very cool deck donating the negative effects of impermanent loss with their proprietary adjustment method, meaning LPs no longer need to worry about impermanent loss. And actually, there can be impermanent gain the way that they rebalance their pools. So it's really good for LPs. But what they're also doing is they're using strategies to boost their APYs across a variety of pools. So if you want to look at the LPs right now on Arbitrum, you can see that they're Arbitrum USDC pools paying 24%. Their native token pools are paying almost 100%. And if you go into Polygon, you can see, you know, their MaticUSDC pool, for example, are paying huge percentages, some of the biggest percentages in the market, S 25%, USDC Decks, etc. 93%. So just huge, huge APRs. Now, they are incentivizing this. So people might ask, Miles, why is it a huge API? Is it a Ponzi scheme? No, it's not a Ponzi scheme. It's a normal LP pool that you can deposit liquidity into. Keep custody of your assets just like a normal pool and earn yields on it. But they are incentivizing it with these multipliers, as you can see. So they won't be this high forever. Of course, they're a relatively new index. So they're trying to get TVL onto the platform. So if you want to take advantage of the super high APRs, you can today. But just to make it even sweeter, Banta is doing a one Ethereum giveaway. That's right. An airdrop of one Ethereum every single week to a random stake of that deposits a minimum of $50 of liquidity into the platform. So if you want to win one Ethereum this week, which I'll be giving away on my show on Friday, you have two more days. All you so Polygon, Arbitrum or BNB deposit liquidity into any of their pools. If you don't exposure to their token, you don't need to. You can pick any of the other tokens in these pools. Of course, minimum $50 and then go onto the dashboard, which is linked in the description and enter your wallet address. And you will then enter the running for the one Ethereum giveaway, which will be on my show. Pretty crazy. One Ethereum every single week to valued at around $1 ,800 just for someone that deposits liquidity. So you can literally put $50 of your own money into a pool. You don't win and withdraw. So I mean, do what you want. It probably makes sense to keep the money in. If you're thinking you're earning a good yield risk adjusted, of course, based on your goals. But yeah, if you do want to just get in for the giveaway, nothing stopping you from doing that either, technically. So link in the description to SmartX, the wallet address deposit side, and then also the farming side. Thought I would give a quick shout out to them before we get on with this question. What's next and where do we sit versus the previous cycles? So the first thing I want to talk about is the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. And a lot of people have been asking me like, Miles, what the hell is happening with the market? It's so boring right now. Well, this isn't abnormal for Bitcoin to have a weird August slash September period. What typically happens in August is a lot of the fund managers and the big VCs and the big quants and all these guys, they go around the holidays, especially the Europeans. They go away. They don't trade much. They know the summer period is not very active. So they decide to concentrate their time and liquidity into the months where there is more volatility. So August, typically in crypto, been a pretty boring month. I mean, it's averaged 0 .69%. And it's been one of the most boring months, aka, I'm defining boring as what is closest to 0 % returns. It has been the most boring month, 10 % total return, total return since Bitcoin inception, which is crazy. September, however, is the worst month in crypto. So this is super interesting and it lines up with some of the peaks, sorry, the troughs that Benjamin Cowen was showing just before how a lot of the time Bitcoin falls below its support band heading into September. This does also line up with the data that I've been analyzing about September being the worst month. Actually, the last six Septembers in a row have historically ticked red, typically quite a red month. Now, if this is the case and we affirm that we're in a new cycle, we'll get into that data, then September could be your best DCA buying month if we do end up getting a dip just like previous months. So although it can be scary, this could actually be a big buying opportunity as one of your opportunities to snap up Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, whatever you would like to purchase the next cycle if you can affirm on the way to a new cycle. So be very interesting to see whether September is also a red month. I think it can be a possibility if we do get that delay on September 1st, because if we get delayed again on the ETFs, then the market has less catalysts, especially if liquidity conditions worsen globally, which we're already seeing are starting to happen, especially like the macro in the US looking quite shaky. That could line up with the Bitcoin spot ETF delay and subsequently poor performance in September. So it wouldn't shock me. I can't predict what will happen in September. All we can do is look historically and say, we've got to be prepared here. Don't expect the massive pump to happen in September. But afterwards, well, different story. Bitcoin typically does have very good early Q1 and late Q4 performance, which kind of lines up with this pre -halving run that we have seen in previous cycles as well, right? So that's also quite interesting. So if we also want to look at the stock market, because Bitcoin's very related to the stock market, we could see stocks did have an amazing run up, but have also pulled back and are around 8 % of their highs in the S &P and around 10 % on the NASDAQ. And Bitcoin actually showing similar correlation and uptick in correlation to stocks, although correlation for Bitcoin on aggregate is much lower than it has been in the past. So Bitcoin not responding as much to the stock market as it used to. I still think they're closely tied in. I still think markets are highly cyclical. And we're going to have a look at that just now. But just interesting to note that we have seen that slight uptick after the stock market started to pull backwards. Bitcoin was running on its own, in its own little ETF narrative prior to that. Let's look at this, though. Very interesting. Stocks are also mimicking their price action. It's not just Bitcoin with its halving cycle. It's also the stock market that's closely following its 2015 to 2017 price action, where you have that massive drawdown, then you have the recovery, then another drawdown. And what actually happened to stocks is they rallied into the end of the year. So could we see this September lull and then a rally into the end of the year? Well, if we do follow the pattern from 2015, then that could be the case. But of course, different liquidity environment can't always line it up one to one and assume what happened last cycle will happen this cycle. Okay, guys, this is the best thread that I have ever read this year on Bitcoin cycles. So if you're still paying attention now, 22 minutes into this stream, keep watching because this 5 next minutes or 10 minutes is going to be completely alpha packed. And I'm not even going to break this down. I'm just going to read some of the thread and then give you my thoughts on the thread because of how in depth and amazing this was. So it was written by Kevin Kelly. He is the founder of Delphi Digital. He works closely with their analysts and he basically contextualize where we sit in the cycle. And his work was very good and also very telling of what happened next for Bitcoin. So let's read this. Evidence is piling up that we're in the early stages of a new cycle. Risk assets like stocks plus crypto have been sniffing this out all year. This isn't another bear market rally. Stick with me because it'll come full circle. To outsiders, crypto may look like it lacks rhyme or reason, but crypto markets are actually quite cyclical. They're also surprisingly consistent in their timing between peak to trough bottoms, recovery time and timing of rallies to new cycle tops. Using Bitcoin as a benchmark, a typical cycle looks like this. Bitcoin hits new all -time high, as we've seen many times before, suffers an 80 % drawdown, as has happened every cycle, takes two years to recover to the prior high, as has happened every cycle, and price rallies for another year before reaching the new all -time high. The last three cycles have followed this blueprint almost exactly. Each of these cycles last typically four years. Bitcoin price peaks occur around the same time the ISM, that's the manufacturing index, shows signs of topping out. Active addresses, total transaction volumes, total fees, they all peaked alongside tops in the ISM too. As the business cycle shows signs of recovery, so too does network activity levels. So he's using the price manufacturing index, so that is your synonymous indicator with the business cycle in general, to contextualize that alongside Bitcoin. So he's making the point here that Bitcoin doesn't operate in isolation, it operates alongside the real world US business cycle. And that's also a reason for Bitcoin network usage. In fact, Bitcoin's year -on -year percentage change usually shows signs of a reversal near bottoms. And so far, that is exactly what we've seen. Now, this is the chart that's in the thumbnail of the video, maybe if we, because there's two thumbnail options I'm deciding between, but maybe in the thumbnail of the video, that is probably one of the most telling charts. We can see, typically, Bitcoin price ends up responding around the trough of the ISM. So we saw this crossover happen in 2015 -2016. We saw it happen in the lead up to the 2021 bull run. And then we also are now starting to see it happen again. Every time this line intersects, we start to see recoveries take place. It kind of oscillates between its highs and its lows. If this is the case, then you could affirm that last November, we had the lows set in on the PMI. And consequently, we had the lows set in on Bitcoin as well during the November FTX collapse. That's very interesting. What's also remarkable is how closely the ISM has tracked the trajectory of its prior cycles, including the timings of its peaks and troughs. Every 3 .5 years, it's rinse and repeat like clockwork. You can see it here. Business cycle peak to trough exhibits predictable pattern. You have the peaks, you have the troughs. You have the peaks, you have the troughs. We had a trough. Are we now going to be heading into another peak? Well, history would suggest we are every 3 .5 years. So this is quite interesting because it may give us some evidence that the Bitcoin halving is not just driven by the supply or demand side factors relative to solely Bitcoin. It may also be driven by the overall business cycle. And the reason that we get these pumps is because Bitcoin falls into the overall business cycle alongside its own halving narrative. And that's a powerful combination.
The Bitboy Crypto Podcast
A highlight from When Will Bitcoin And XRP Stop Falling? (SHIB About To Dump)
"Guys, historically, we have never, on Bitcoin, seen a red July that wasn't at least followed by a red August. We will keep going on here. You know, I want to start off with some SHIB TA just for you, Deezy. Hey, hey, let's pump my bag of $100 worth of SHIB. Out of curiosity, when did you purchase? I actually just pulled up Coinbase earlier today. I'm up like 4%. I think I got it last week. I think I just got it about a week ago. All right, well, I mean, anyone who purchased here back in June, you definitely have had a nice little rally going on. Someone clipped that. That was awesome. I'm sorry. Did you do a cool trick? I wasn't looking. It's all right. The moment's past. I got bad news for you, though, Deezy. Well, good news. You probably should look at taking profits at some point soon. The first thing I'm looking at right now, we do have a rising wedge on Shiba that traditionally breaks to the downside. There's a lot of things kind of coming in here saying we're a little overextended. Let's look. 4 -hour chart is what we're looking at here. I like using Sharp Prime. It is my favorite indicator to use, but everyone loves their own, so you'd use whatever works for you. Whenever you see this orange box on Sharp Prime, that is an overbought box. It did just flash here this morning. We are flowing up in the money flow, but we're getting a little overextended with our trend fusion. And of course, the RSI is coming up high. There's an outside chance it goes a little higher, but at the moment, if it does not, if we start seeing a pause in SHIB, you will see bearish divergence forming, and then you go out to the daily chart where we're also getting some reversal signals here. We've got a reversal red triangle right here and pulling up the dynamic reactor and trend assistant. We're coming into some strong rejection right with that rising level of rejection. And again, more often than not, rising wedges break to the downside. We're hitting resistance on several different things, so it's something to definitely keep your eye on. It's possibly time to take some profit. Last thing we can do is even take a look at some fib ranges from the last peak we had back in April down to what is currently the bottom. Right there, you're going to see the resistance coming in at 0 .5 on Fibonacci as well. Can we go to the left side of that green line? You see that green line form right there. Would you consider that a rising wedge that then led to a little parabolic? It's on the far left side of the TradingView screen you're looking at right now. Now it's over a little. You've changed the axis a little, but would you say that rising wedge led to that parabolic pump? Or is that just how the market was going? Rising wedge led to a parabolic...you mean a falling wedge? Go left, go left, move it to the left, slowly, slowly, slowly, right there. No, see that would actually be a time where it broke out the wrong direction. So rising wedges usually break to the downside. I'm sure if I were to go back and look at some news, something happened in August that pumped it. I was just asking, is that a rising wedge? That's a rising wedge that traditionally breaks to the downside. thesis So the I saw was the rising wedges typically break out to the upside. That's false. I don't know if this was typically. You just said he laid out some examples where it led to a parabolic run -up. And so I was going based off of that. But as you said, I do remember that typically they do break to the downside. So maybe you have something to check out with sheep. Because you see these rising wedges and then you see a little parabolic candle. So it's just an interesting coin that seems to play by its own rules on some levels. Yeah, you guys are wondering what he's talking about right here. It's not a rising wedgie. This is a rising wedge. And it's true. It is one. TA is never 100%. You're not going to find any technical analysts say that every single time you draw these formations, you get the same breakout. In this case, what you saw, I would actually kind of classify this, Deezy, as a little bit of a fake out. If you went back here, this is a rising wedge. We didn't hit the resistance. We broke through it, but then quickly dropped back into it. And take a look at this, what you're doing to predict what happens in price action. Come on now. You go from the opening of the wedge. You move that over to the breakout. And sure enough, that was the price action we ended up getting back down here a couple of months later. It took a while to play out. But it still played its route later on even after the fake out happened. We're going to briefly interrupt this. I just want to give a special shout out to our sponsor, Stake. Big shout out to Stake. We love them. So the same thing here, what I'm looking at. You know, you can't predict a false breakout, but you can start to sit here and say, based off how traders are trading this right now, it should move to the downside. And if it does break out at some point, let's just pretend maybe it breaks out somewhere over here. You're more than likely seeing another, should she be new, come down, what is that? One, two, three, four, five zeros, and then a six and a four follow it back down to levels we saw in June. It kind of matches with some other things that I believe about how the space is moving. Let's move over to Bitcoin this morning. Right now, I told you, short term, a little bullish on Bitcoin, but longer term still bearish. One of the things we just broke out on Bitcoin was a falling trading channel. So this is where the kind of micro bullishness comes in. Look at how we actually broke through the resistance, came back down, had some wicks drop below, but for the most part turned resistance into support. And now we're back trading within this flat range once again. So a short term pump back up to 29 .5 is definitely not out of the cards, but the macro, Deezy, this is where I get more concerned, especially when you go out towards two day and three day. You guys can see on oscillators, by the way, this is chart prime, but you're going to see the same thing if you go to normal oscillators, if you go to Market Cipher, if you go to Lux, whatever you're looking at, oscillators are dropping very rapidly. Money flow is dropping rapidly, and we're not oversold yet on these larger timeframes. I believe, Deezy, that we're going to continue to keep this former resistance level as support, but watch in this yellow box, I believe that a $28 ,000 price, Frankie talked about this yesterday, I think there's a chance we retouch this rising blue level of support later in August at $28 ,000, and then it's a decision time. Do we lose support at that point and drop down to $25 ,000 or lower, or do we make a bounce and try to set a new higher high? As I mentioned the other day, I did mention this yesterday briefly, not during the TA section, but just we were talking about price action in general. Let me go up to log chart here on Bitcoin. Guys, historically, we have never on Bitcoin seen a red July that wasn't at least followed by a red August. That one red August was in 2016, if I zoom in here just a little more for you guys, we had one more red month after a red July, and then we continue to rally, but you can see in 2011, that started a multi -month slide back in 2014, multi -month slide, and back in 2019, which the similarities between what we're seeing right now and 2019 continue to pile up. If we were to match it perfectly, we're not looking at a real bottom, not counting this COVID bottom that happened in March 2020, I'm more looking around this range of November, December, probably more November looking for a true bottom on Bitcoin. Ben talked about this yesterday, when you're looking at four -year cycle, it looks like November of this year more than likely should be the bottom, before a little bit of sideways action, which again, take out COVID and it would have been sideways. When you say the bottom, you mean 2023 bottom? I mean bottom for this, yeah you're right, not a new bear market bottom, but a new bottom for this little slump in Bitcoin price. I'm thinking somewhere between $25 ,000 to $20 ,000, I think if the bears get a lot of control, we're talking about $20 ,000, at the moment, I'm pretty convinced $25 ,000 will be touched once again by Bitcoin. The question is, does it happen here in the next couple weeks, or do we hold off till November? Either way, history would say, we technically have a green August right now, but after setting a red July, you do not see August turn green, and a lot of times you see August red, September red, and October red, and the question is what happens in November, that's what I'm going to keep my eye on. Alright, my hot take, it's going to be hard to predict, I think a lot of people may be looking at this, so I would be more apt to compare it to just broad four year cycles, versus looking at Julys, but I think different areas are going to be different. They back each other up though, so the four year cycle and looking at what red Julys do, they actually agree with each other that we should have some more red months, and here's another thing, I'm giving an unpopular take, but what's another unpopular take that I've given recently, and that is XRP back down to $0 .55, and guess what? Right now we are sitting down at $0 .66, and if you look at the daily chart, and you look at the oscillators, the oscillators and the money flow, everything is still flowing down. I know a lot of other traders have kind of looked at $0 .64 as an area to keep your eyes on, but what I'm seeing on these larger timeframes, as price is dropping on XRP, we're not really overextended yet, so let's watch what happens if the price gets to $0 .64, but I'm expecting it to continue to drop, and I think I'm going to be right. I think $0 .55, $0 .57 is in the cards. Market buy at $0 .56. Do not let it hit $0 .55. Just keep market buying, keep market buying. View maritime marvels and travel insightful itineraries. Learn more at visitnj .org slash history.
The Bitboy Crypto Podcast
A highlight from "Buy Your Bitcoin Here!" (Elon Musk Building Crypto Trading Platform)
"Welcome. Yeah, we need to get that on. Hey, welcome to big boy crypto. Home of the BitSquad. Largest and greatest crypto community in all of the Interweb. Johnny! Thank you for joining everybody. Today is August 4th. It is 1130 AM Eastern Standard Time. Can we cut the TV on so I can see where the camera is at? Hey, it's just a simple press of a button. Ooh, it is opening up. Open up Hulu. No, no, no, Hulu. No, go to Disney+. I want to watch Mandalorian. Oh, I got a show to host. I guess I'll do that instead. Guys, we're going to get right into the crypto news. We got a lot of big stuff. We're talking about Bitcoin, of course. We're talking about the government. Some ETH updates happening as well. And we're going to talk about Elon Musk and X. Shout out to NWO, the wrestling group there, mid nineties, WCW. Make sure you're joining us on YouTube. Make sure you were subbed. I mean, so hit that button. Make sure you're following us on Twitter or X. I'm DZ underscore BTC. We also have BitBoy underscore crypto, I believe. All right. You ready to just get right into the news here. How are you feeling today, Tim? Are you feeling a little bit bullish? We got. Yeah. Oh, wow. We just flipped into the negative. It was like 0 .3 to green an hour ago. I think I'm a little bullish, maybe on a shorter timeframe still, but not bullish still on the like we're talking about the next couple of weeks. No, not really. Well, we have the market cap of the crypto tire ecosystem. It is flat. It is at 0 .0%. You actually don't see that that often. 24 hour volume coming in at $35 billion and gas is low. So if you want to get some cheap alts on Uniswap or something like that, now is the time is coming in at 28 Gwei there, 14 Paraguay. Life is deezier when you DZA. How about this? Life is easier when you hit the like button, everybody. So please hit that like button. Bitcoin is relatively flat folks. It is up, but it is only up slightly. It is up 0 .1%. Ethereum up 0 .4%. We have to scroll down pretty far before we see any kind of real action. We see Solana in the single digits. It is up 2 .2 % and Litecoin down 3 .2%. The DZ short on the day of the halving. You're still in profit. You're still in profit. I don't know. Maybe close it at some point. Shiba is up. Hey, I bought my first bag and now I'm up. There you go. Your first Shiba purchase ever? Ever. Wow. I have still yet to do that. Okay. Yeah. Just looking at it from a TA perspective, you are a TA guy. So it is very, very chart interesting there. I think it'll probably have a second run up for sure. I don't know if it'll hit all time highs, but we're still way, way low before we even get that. I think it was a 10X or something to get to all time highs. Do DZ and Tim have beef? No, we have a steak bet. It is a beef bet. Yeah, we have a beef bet. It is a beef bet. Yeah. I mean, we do have beef. Yeah. Are you going to cook like an impossible steak for me? Well, I won't have to cook it. So I was kind of wondering what you were going to do. I'll eat the steak that you buy me and cook. So I'm looking forward to it. Wait, so I have to buy the steak that you cook me after you lose? That doesn't seem right. Maybe we just go to Jason Kasper's farm and just be like, hey man, can we cut into your cow or something? We'll let it heal. We'll come back in six months. All right, let's look at the top gainers. Everybody, we have Kasper is up. I am feeling pale as a ghost for not buying any of this. It is up 8 .6%. We have fracks of the opposite 6 .8%. OKB is up 6 .7, flex up 6 .2. The previously mentioned Shiba curve on the way up, it is still down a 16 % on the week. So it was down about 20. Now it is up four and a half percent. After that though, then we're falling below 3%. So let's look at the top losers. We don't like losers, but we do like Beck and the Odelay album. Compound is down 4 .7%. Stacks is down about 4%. Then we have Litecoin, Kava, Gala, and the Graph rounding out the rest. So we now have Graph hitting $0 .10. Where is that in the historical? I think it went up to $2. It went above $2. So looking pretty flat. But then when you hit on that 90 day, you're like, oh, I could have definitely gotten a little bit cheaper, but hey, we're coming in close enough to a dime. I might look to scoop a little bit more of that. Today is Friday. DCA is the way for DZ, at least, you know, trying to DCA on Friday. What are you going to DCA into today? We see someone getting into some algo, algo, algo, algo all the way. Let's see. Beef coin. I don't know if there's a beef coin, folks. Bald? Bald's cheap. Isn't the inflation on Graph like bananas? Let's see. So we have circulating supplies. Well, look at it. It's at 91%. So maybe it was. All right. All right. So that's a good narrative. That is a good narrative. So at 91 % of the token is out. Look at sweet. Look at that. Look at some of these other coins and you can say, wow, 91 % is really, really good. So I like the tokenomics just from this brief cursory glance coming in at right under a billion dollars. Okay. ABT, quant, ETH, CAS, someone's getting some CAS, more quant, HBAR. Okay. More SHIB. All right. There's a lot of people. Okay. Fade and TradFi. I'm sure whatever DZ gets, you'll love his beef in your mouth. Sorry. Couldn't help myself. I'm in this crib together, everybody. All right. Are you ready to get into the charts? What do we have? We have T Bro. Is that, it's not T Shroom, is it? T Bro charts. Trading Bros. Oh, okay. Well, it's Investing Bros. So they got that wrong. But we will, we'll keep going on here. You know, I want to start off with some SHIB TA just for you, DZ. Let's pump my bag of $100 worth of SHIB. Out of curiosity, when did you purchase? What date? I actually just put up Coinbase earlier today. I'm up like 4%. I think I got it last week. I think I just got it about a week ago. All right. Well, I mean, anyone who purchased here back in June, you definitely have had a nice little rally going on. If you purchased a week ago. That was awesome. I'm sorry. Did you do a cool trick? I wasn't looking. That's all right. The moment's past. I got bad news for you though, DZ. Well, good news. You probably should look at taking profits at some point soon. The first thing I'm looking at right now, we do have a rising wedge on Shiba that traditionally breaks to the downside. There's a lot of things kind of coming in here saying we're a little overextended. Let's look for our chart. What we're looking at here. I like using Sharp Prime. It is my favorite indicator to use, but everyone loves their own. So you'd use whatever works for you. Whenever you see this orange box on Sharp Prime, that is an overbought box. It did just flash here this morning. We are flowing up in the money flow, but we're getting a little overextended with our confusion. Of course, the RSI is coming up high. There's an outside chance it goes a little higher, but at the moment, if it does not, if we start seeing a pause in SHIB, you will see bearish divergence forming. Then you go out to the daily chart where we're also getting some reversal signals here. We got a reversal red triangle right here and pulling up the dynamic reactor and trend assistant. We're coming into some strong rejection right with that rising level of rejection. Again, more often than not, rising wedges break to the downside. We're hitting resistance several on different things, so it's something to definitely keep your eye on. Possibly time to take some profit. Last thing we can do is even take a look at some fib ranges. From the last peak we had back in April down to what is currently the bottom, right there, you're going to see the resistance coming in at 0 .5 on Fibonacci as well. Can we go to the left side of that green line? You see that green line form right there. Would you consider that a rising wedge that then led to a little parabolic? It's on the far left side of the trading view screen you're looking at right now. Now it's over a little. You've changed the axis a little, but would you say that rising wedge led to that parabolic pump or is that just, you know, how the market was going? Rising wedge led to a parabolic, you mean a falling wedge? Go left, go left, move it to the left, slowly, slowly, slowly, right there. No, see that would actually be a time where it broke out the wrong direction. So rising wedges usually break to the downside. I'm sure if I were to go back and look at some news, something happened. Is that a rising wedge? Would you say that's a rising wedge? That's a rising wedge that broke down. Yeah. Okay. So the thesis I saw was the rising wedges typically break out to the upside. I don't know if this was typically, you just said, you know, he laid out some examples where it led to a parabolic run up. And so I was going based off of that. But as you say, I do remember, yeah, typically they do break to the downside. So maybe something to check out with sheep because you see these rising wedges and then you see a little parabolic candle. So it's just an interesting coin that seems to play by its own rules on some levels. Yeah. You guys are wondering what he's talking about right here. It's not a rising wedgie. This is a rising wedge and it's true. Like it is one, TA is never 100%. You're not going to find any technical analysts say that every single time you draw these formations, you get the same breakout. In this case, what you saw, I would actually kind of classify this DZ as a little bit of a fake out. If you went back here, this is a rising wedge. We didn't hit the resistance. We broke through it, but then quickly dropped back into it. And take a look at this, what you're doing to predict what happens in price action. Come on. Now you go from the opening of the wedge, you move that over to the breakout. And sure enough, that was the price. Actually, we ended up getting back down here a couple of months later, took a while to play out. But it's still played its route later on, even after the fake out happened. So the same thing here, what I'm looking at, you know, you predict can't a false breakout, but you can start to sit here and say, based off how traders are trading this right now, it should move to the downside. And if it does break out at some point, let's just pretend maybe it breaks out somewhere over here. You're more than likely seeing another come, should she be new, come down. What is that? One, two, three, four, five zeros, and then a six and a four follow it back down to levels we saw in June. It kind of matches with some other things that I believe about how the space is moving. Let's move over to Bitcoin this morning. Right now, I told you, short term, a little bullish on Bitcoin, but longer term, still bearish. One of the things we just broke out on Bitcoin was a falling trading channel. So this is where the kind of micro bullishness comes in. Look at how we actually broke through the resistance, came back down, had some wicks drop below, but for the most part, turned resistance into support. And now we're back trading within this flat range once again. So a short term pump back up to 29 .5 is definitely not out of the cards, but the macro, Deezy, this is where I get more concerned, especially when you go out towards two day and three day. You guys can see on oscillators, by the way, this is chart prime, but you're going to see the same thing if you go to normal oscillators, if you go to market cipher, if you go to Lux, whatever you're looking at, oscillators are dropping very rapidly. Money flow is dropping rapidly, and we're not oversold yet on these larger timeframes. I believe, Deezy, that we're going to continue to keep this former resistance level as support, but watch in this yellow box, I believe that a $28 ,000 price, Frankie talked about this yesterday, I think there's a chance we retouch this rising blue level of support later in August at $28 ,000, and then it's the decision time. Do we lose support at that point and drop down to $25 ,000 or lower, or do we make a bounce and try to set a new higher high? As I mentioned the other day, I did mention this yesterday briefly, not during the TA section, but just we were talking about price action in general. Let me go up to log chart here on Bitcoin. Guys, historically, we have never on Bitcoin seen a red July that wasn't at least followed by a red August. That one red August was in 2016, if I zoom in here just a little more for you guys, we had one more red month after a red July, and then we continue to rally, but you can see in 2011, that started a multi -month slide back in 2014, multi -month slide, and back in 2019, which the similarities between what we're seeing right now in 2019 continue to pile up. If we were to match it perfectly, we're not looking at a real bottom, not counting this COVID bottom that happened in March 2020, I'm more looking around this range of November, December, probably more November looking for a true bottom on Bitcoin. Ben talked about this yesterday, when you're looking at four -year cycle, it looks like November of this year more than likely should be the bottom before a little bit of sideways action, which again, take out COVID, and it would have been sideways. When you say the bottom, you mean 2023 bottom? I mean bottom for this, yeah, you're right, not a new bear market bottom, but a new bottom for this little slump in Bitcoin price. I'm thinking somewhere between $25 ,000 to $20 ,000. I think if the bears get a lot of control, we're talking about $20 ,000. At the moment, I'm pretty convinced $25 ,000 will be touched once again by Bitcoin. The question is, does it happen here in the next couple weeks, or do we hold off till November? Either way, history would say, guys, after setting, we technically have a green August right now, but after setting a red July, you do not see August turn green, and a lot of times, you see August red, September red, and October red, and the question is what happens in November. That's what I'm going to keep my eye on. All right, my hot take. It's going to be hard to predict. I think a lot of people may be looking at this, so I would be more apt to compare it to broad four -year cycles versus looking at Julys. They back each other up, though. The four -year cycle and looking at what red Julys do, they actually agree with each other that we should have some more red months. Here's another thing. I'm giving an unpopular take, but what's another unpopular take that I've given recently? That is XRP back down to $0 .55. Guess what? Right now, we are sitting down at $0 .66, and if you look at the daily chart and you look at the oscillators, the oscillators and the money flow, everything is still flowing down. I know a lot of other traders have kind of looked at $0 .64 as an area to keep your eyes on, but what I'm seeing on these larger time frames, as price is dropping on XRP, we're not really overextended yet, so let's watch what happens if the price gets to $0 .64, but I'm expecting it to continue to drop, and I think I'm going to be right. I think $0 .55, $0 .57 is in the cards. Well, XRP community, you have a challenge. Market buy at $0 .56. Do not let it hit $0 .55. Just keep market buying. Is mercury in retrograde? What's Saturn doing right now? Where's the moon? Wasn't it the super moon? Was it an orange one? Was it a pumpkin? I don't know. Some kind of special moon, too. Moon math. All right. Well, I think we're ready to talk about the top story. Tim, anything else you want to add? Do you want to talk about dominance? Do you want to talk about Bitcoin dominance? No, because I know I'm going to be right. Well, I mean, again, history says no. History is still playing out that the Bitcoin dominance should be seen. Let's just do the top story. Let's get it. Bitcoin will not hit 60 % dominance. All right. I'm sorry. What's your metric? 60%. On trading view. On trading view. Okay, so it was that like $58 on CoinGecko? $58 on Coin, on MarketCap, and I think $56 on Gecko. Okay. Well, we'll see. That was, you know, I allowed Tim to move the goalposts on that one because we did not say trading view, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap. He chose the one that was most favorable for his bet. And I allowed it to happen. So that's fine. I just wanted to point that out. I gave you trading view. Can we like turn this pissing match into something? Like, why does that matter to the studio audience? Why does that matter? Good point. So CoinGecko has a 4 % differential from trading view when it comes to Bitcoin dominance. And so there's some that say Bitcoin dominance is a little bit higher. Some are saying it's a little bit lower. I'm giving Tim the most favorable metric for his bet and the least favorable for mine. How is that going to make someone money? So me and Tim have a bet for a steak dinner that Bitcoin, I say it will not hit 60%. He says it will. This one might not be a money thing as much as it's a pride thing. So, Nick, you're right. We're getting a little into some nonsense, Deezy. You and I are really trying to cut back on that.
The Bitboy Crypto Podcast
A highlight from Binance Fraud Charges Coming? (SBF SECRET Connection EXPOSED)
"We are right here in Bahamas. We are going to make it right. If you became a millionaire, would you keep working? The commander is here. What's going on right now? California's trying to figure out. Oh, I can. Welcome to BitBoy Crypto, home of the BitSquad, home of me, home of you, home of everybody that cares about crypto, that cares about being sovereign, that cares about decentralization, that cares about fighting the good fight, that cares about stopping corruption. It is home for all of us. Please hit that like button. Today is August 3rd. It's 11 .31 AM Eastern Standard Time because we want to give you 60 seconds just to get up to speed. It wasn't us. It was not me. It was not Nick. It was not Tim. Ben will be popping up very soon. What? 10, 20 minutes? Something like that? Hopefully 5 to 10. Yeah, hopefully 5 to 10. So we'll see Ben very, very soon. He's finishing up filming something right now. I just saw him. I got my phone charged. I saw him just doing this. Hey, guys, you know, something, something crypto. So then he's filming. What is he filming? What's it? Nick knows this. What's the story? What's the video he's filming right now? Ooh. Can we share the alpha on what the next video is? Get a little tease. Maybe we can't. Yeah. It's a deep dive on Sam Altman. Oh, it's Altman. Altman. Yeah. Deep dive. Okay. It's going to be a good one. I don't know if I'll ever be able to say Sam Altman. I just have to say Altman. Altman. Also, we're going to have Crypto Face on. He's going to be talking charts. One of my favorite TA people out there, how do you feel about Crypto Face? You're big in TA. Did you used to watch him back in the day? No. No, I have watched him more recently. Here's the thing. You can't argue with the results. Crypto Face is clearly one of the best traders you're talking about. I'm the monkey talking right now. No, so you can't argue with his results, so he clearly knows what he's doing. I myself don't really use Market Cipher, but every time I watch people like Ben use it or when I watch Frankie use it or Kelly, I know, used to use it very heavily, I always had a very heavy respect for it, so I'm excited to have him on. We have a question for him that we came across the other day about when the green dots, the double dots, print and not print because we thought we knew. Snake eyes, there we go. Yeah, so I'm excited to have him on. I've been talking with him for the last couple of days, and it's going to be great. We could have some sort of a drinking game as to how many times he says non -family -friendly words. Okay, I have my water, and I have my black bean juice, and so maybe I'll do the bean juice, but then I don't want to get too wired. It's like I'm in an SPF polycule, you know, hopped up in amphetamines. Don't want that. Alright, let's get right into the show, folks. Let's look at CoinGecko. What is the crypto market doing? Let us know if you like us just jumping right into the news here. We have a refresh about to happen because I don't know if I trust this. Okay, yeah, we have fallen further. We are now down 0 .3 % for the entire crypto market cap coming in at $1 .21 trillion. I remember just yesterday it felt like 123. Bitcoin dominance coming in at 46 .9 and ETH coming in at 18 .2. Gas a little bit low but not super low coming in at 38 Gwei. Alright, well, let's check out what's Bitcoin doing, what are some of these larger coins doing, and the top gainers and losers of the past 24 hours. We have Bitcoin down 0 .4%, it's not looking great, it's 29 ,200, it's holding strong above 29 ,000. Tim, is there a level? We fall below, you're getting scared. What is that number? Well, I mean, I'm sitting at the moment not liking a lot of things. Actually, we're going to talk about some more Bitcoin stuff later today. Believe it or not, when we talk about the BlackRock stuff, we're going to pull up the Bitcoin chart, monthly chart, and look at what happens when we see red Julys. We're sitting on short -term support right now. I'm not going to do all of Crypto Face's job for him, I'm sure he'll go more in detail on this. So I actually think there's going to be somewhat of a pump today, shorter timeframes, four -hour, one -hour chart pumps, but when you go out to the daily, two -daily, three -daily, there's more room to the downside when you pull up oscillators. We're not necessarily sitting super low. We did have a bounce back over here, but we're kind of sitting in a spot, again, two -daily, three -daily, you're looking at oscillators, they still look like they're moving to the downside, concerning for me for the next couple of weeks, but I do think next 24, 48 hours, maybe a little green, especially after a red yesterday. Alright. And Flazik Travels has a question, Golden Cross, on what chart? If you watch ATB Morning Stream, we do a Morning Stream on ATB, it's 9 .30am to 10 .00am Eastern Standard Time. And I covered it, and XRP and Bitcoin have a Golden Cross on the three -day. So if you want to check that out, the three -day chart. The only thing though, let's ask Crypto Face what his thought is. I want to hear what other technical analysts think. To me, Golden and Death Crosses are some of the most worthless technical analysis signals. Alright, well, the Golden Cross for Bitcoin on the three -day has only happened twice. Another reason why it's not necessarily significant, you want to see history, you want to see something happen numerous times and play out at least 80 % of the time in a certain direction. It's like the Halley's Comet of market signals. When you look at Golden Crosses and Death Crosses, there's no consistency. It's like 50 -50, which is not a good call either way. So every single time you see a cross. Well, I think that depends on the timeframe, because in this particular instance, it isn't a 50 -50. It is a 2 -0 for this particular instance. So both times it's hit. Just to focus on the three -day here, it has happened twice. Both times, within 400 -500 days, we put in a new all -time high. And so, you know, just for the three days specifically, yeah, sure, it's maybe something to look at. So, you know, maybe check that out. Maybe we could try it on some different coins. Maybe try it on ETH and some other stuff. Alright, well, speaking of ETH, we have ETH, it is down 0 .2%. BNB is down to 4%. XRP down 2 .5%. Cardano down 2 .5%. Litecoin down 4%. And Nick, what do you think of this? I think I maybe found the new slam dunk trade, okay? Last time I shared a slam dunk trade, it was the old go woke, go broke. Next time you see a Fortune 500 company, just do some crazy insane stuff, you can probably short the stock. That was my last one. Here's the new alpha. Every single halving event has led to like two to three red candle days. Can you just short Litecoin the day before the halving? Can you just short Bitcoin the day before the halving? Fill in proof -of -work coin. Is this a foolproof method? What have you seen on some of these coins when they do have a halving date? People dump. People dump. Like the miners dump. Now, Tim brought up, you know, a metric, you know, sometimes you maybe can find a metric that's 80 % to the one side, you know, 20 % of the downside. Usually that gets found out and then, you know, it gets closer to closer to 50 % as people trade against each other. Is that the last good metric? If you had to say, is it 80 % of the time it dumps, 90 % of the time, 60 % of the time? How often does a coin dump the day after halving? I think for proof -of -work coins, it's in the 80%. There is also a pretty good correlation of network upgrades to proof -of -stake coins and then their coin also the price dumping. So like if Ethereum, every time there's been an Ethereum upgrade, Ethereum is dumped. Cardano upgrades, Cardano dumps, right? Like every single time. So well, there was that one period in 2021 where ETH had a record day of green candles, but I think that was just more about timing of the market and everything. Yeah, yeah, yeah. DZ, I'm going back and looking. Alright, now he's looking at the three -day here. Oh, God. I'm not sure. I'm not sure what you guys are saying. It's, again, it's happened twice on Bitcoin, right? And XRP. 50 -50. Here, positive. We have the red line. This is the 50 crossing above the, or sorry, yeah, the 50 crossing above the 200. Right here, three -daily. Positive. That was the bottom. Good. One for one. Let's go to the second time it happened. Red crosses above blue right here. Short -term pump, but continuation to the downside. That's one -in -one. That was not a new rally coming in. The continued market to crash after. Let's go to XRP. Alright, well, I would say there's an asterisk with that because of March 2020 and COVID. So, I mean, sure, you could say, yeah, it went down. I think if you remove COVID, the 2020 chart looks a lot like the 2016 chart. That's just kind of by, been my assessment for three years at this point. But here's the, I think if you don't have COVID crash, it would look a lot more similar to the previous cycle, and we would not have gone below that. This though, right here, DZ, that's COVID. This is not COVID. This is not COVID right here. This is just a pullback from the pre -bull market rally. I guess, yeah, we do come down here, but all this price action. No, no, the metric was 400 to 500 days later. I don't know what's going to happen 60 days later. I don't know what's going to happen 90 days later. The thing they're pointing at is 4 to 500 days later, new all -time high. Yeah, we're not talking about two months later, X happens. 4 to 500 days later sets in a new all -time high. That is the thing we need to be looking at. That is the bullish indicator. Yeah, you could say, well, 74 days later, it was bad. I think the main takeaway there, 4 to 500 days later. So 400 days, what is that? 365 days in a year. One year plus 35 days. It's 13 months. In 500 days, you add an extra 100 days, three months. So 13 months to 17 months later, 16 months later, you're going to have a new all -time high. It's happened twice before. Will it happen the third time? Do not argue with the dictator, says Krik Katz. How does your wife feel about that statement? Well, my wife and my girlfriend and my girlfriend's husband all know not to argue with me. Okay. So it's official. Nick's wife does not watch the show. Alright, let's look at the top gainers before we get to site. Alright, alright. I think we have someone ready. Speaking of gains, how's the gym been lately? It's been good. No worries here. Nick's wife's boyfriend is here. So here we are. Just kidding. We love her. She's great. She's great. She's great. Not in that way. Look, guys.
The Trish Regan Show
Tucker Carlson Exposes the Truth About Mainstream Media
"Start with Tucker Carlson. I showed some of this to you already. I just got to point out, his little clip got more views, more viewership than any of his Fox News shows. Watch. The undeniably big topics, the ones that will define our future, get virtually no discussion at all. War. Civil liberties, emerging science, demographic change, corporate power, natural resources. When was the last time you heard a legitimate debate about any of those issues? So you see, Tucker's making the point that it's very difficult nowadays to tell the truth. Don't I know that, don't we all know that? And when you do speak the truth, and you give full on what you're thinking, sometimes, well, people get a little bit mad. I experienced it myself. I mean, I had a lot to say. Don't forget back in March 2020, Fox didn't like it very much. So I've been in his shoes,
The Dinesh D'Souza Podcast
Former Levi's Top Executive Jennifer Sey on Her Derailed Career
"Jennifer, welcome to the podcast. Great to have you. Here's an article about you, a prominent article in The New York Times. She was a candidate to lead Levi's. Then she started tweeting. It sounds like tweeting proof to be your downfall. Talk about, well, let's start by talking about your career at Levi's. Was it a happy career? Did it? Did it just sort of take a sharp turn? Talk a little bit about that. Men will come to what happened to you. Yeah, it did take a pretty sharp turn in March 2020. I started at the company in 1999 as an entry level marketing assistant. I worked hard and rose through the ranks and became the chief marketing officer in 2013, held that job for 8 years, which is a really long time to hold that post and be successful in it. Helped lead the brand back from near brink of bankruptcy, honestly in 2011. I loved the company. I loved the brand. I had worn it since I was a small child. You know, I loved it there. I built a strong team and friends and I felt very much a part of the culture. And excelled there. And in 2020, in the fall, I was promoted to brand president. So I oversaw all the product development, all the genes, people wear, the store design, all of it, as well as the marketing at that point. But just a few months before that, in March of 2020, I was very outspoken about school closures and restrictions to children. And so yes, I tweeted about it, but I also wrote op eds and appeared on news shows, and eventually after a two year conflict, I was told I needed to resign because I was a reputational risk to the company that wasn't true. Our brand was doing great recovering from COVID. But essentially, you know, they didn't like what I said. I challenged a deep pillar apparently of the Democratic Party platform, right? Stay closed until zero COVID. And so I was too dangerous to have around.
America First with Sebastian Gorka Podcast
Why Jennifer Sey Walked Away From Her Role at Levi's
"That theme of sacrificing children continued into what happened with you at Levi. So tell us your story of what it was, what awful sin you committed under the conditions of the pandemic here in America. Well, I lived in San Francisco at the time, which is a very left leaning city, and it had very much aligned with my values or what I thought they were up until that time. But in March 2020, when the schools shut and San Francisco was the first city in America to shut schools, they also shut playgrounds for close to ten months. Basically, anything kids could do was not allowed. And I was very outspoken about this being wrong from day one from March 13th, 2020, even before that, really. I asked questions on social media. I attended school board meetings. I wrote op eds. In defense of children, it was very clear from the first that the risk was very age stratified and that this was going to cause more harm for our kids. While being completely ineffective in quote unquote, slowing the spread. And in San Francisco's school stay closed for 18 months, disrupted for two and a half years, and we are seeing the impacts of that now. And like I said, I was very outspoken about this. I was warned, time and again, that I needed to stop. So let's get into the details. So tell us the first instance, what were you told by the powers that be? And what was their justification for curtailing your First Amendment rights? So I did not get a call until September of 2020. So I've been at it for 6 months and hadn't heard anything. And to be honest, I was sort of waiting and wondering when I might. My peer, the head of corporate communications called me, we were all working virtual, so nobody popped by the office. And she said, people are noticing your social media. You need to remember that when you speak, you speak on behalf of the company and I said, I don't. I'm a mom. I don't have the company or my title and my profile. I'm a mom of four public school children, and she said, well, people don't like it. And I said, I understand that. I don't see really why that matters. Your kids are going back to school at in person private. Why can't I advocate for the same for public school children? She didn't really have an answer. She asked me to hold the line. I said, I don't really know what that means. And I said, this was a continuation of advocacy for children that I'd done in regards to children in the Olympic movement in sports, and it was too important to me. And I would keep it to kids, you know, I wouldn't branch out beyond that to lock downs and all the other things I was opposed to. But that this was too important.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"march. 2020" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We have a little bit of stabilization across assets after a series of losses overnight across equities and beyond This is the state of play on the S&P 500 mini were called a little bit higher here half of 1% bear in mind that the move we saw in to the close in the U.S. was with quite a bit of conviction 20% above the recent average in terms of the volume of your vix is at 33 Treasuries catching a bit We are three 23 85 for U.S. tens The front of the belly of the curve trading a little bit richer the Bloomberg dollar index is up by half of 1% bouncing back from the worst two day drops its march of 2020 an oil is set for a loss A weekly loss with traders weighing the monetary tightening in what's set out to me is that the U.S. energy secretary is going to meet refiners next week to try and bring the gasoline prices down Let's flip the board till and get to this important chart here in terms of the moment to reflect on the carnage And on the dislocation the recession fears have buried stocks and this week's sell off comes a central banks raise rates and at the same time that takes the year to date market cap hit up to about 24 $1 trillion It could be even more pain to come Lisa saying that the worst case scenario for them according to historical president could mean that you could be looking at additional losses of 11 to 32% from here The S&P 500 looking stretch according to them although Credit Suisse are becoming tactically overweight on contrarian signals Here's the cryptocurrency space specifically on Bitcoin because we had again a monstrous defense of the $20,000 mark that continues even though intraday we are down about 6% Now let's get you some breaking news hitting the Bloomberg a red headline This is Banco Santander They're set to a point Hector greasy As this next CEO replacing the longtime executive Jose Antonio Alvarez greasy who's 55 is expected to take over fully in early 2023 It comes with a bit of a transition period That is according to people familiar with the move they asked not to be named ahead of the announcement We've reached out to the lender to try and get a comment They said not at the moment This is largely been expected to CEO change Now here's the caveat though 'cause the appointment requires an approval from the European Central Bank shares offset on their been down 10% so far this year still outperforming to some of the major European peers Let's see how markets in Asia are holding up the Juliet solly has those details She joins the shaman Singapore studio Hey Jules Hey Yusuf It's all about the BOJ They didn't do anything but you are still seeing the ten year yield test that upper resolve of .25% despite the fact that the bank of Japan did what was widely expecting leaving their yield curve control and their asset purchases in line with expectations in a rare move they did though site risks to the foreign exchange market and we know that is as we see the yen test these 24 year lows the NAB saying the bank of Japan still has time on its side to commit to this ultra easy policy even though we're seeing aggressive moves coming through in terms of heights from other central banks around the globe And that is because the Japanese economy is still trying to recover from the pandemic When we have a look at the Japanese yen it has been fluctuating around today We are seeing weaker at the moment by about one and a half percent against the dollar traders will be waiting to see what Corona says in the press conference later this afternoon And bank of Singapore saying it could wake into a 135 to 140 to the dollar elsewhere a lot of selling coming through in these equity markets the MSCI Asia Pacific index on track to close at a two year low no surprise you're seeing quite a bit of weakness coming through in Japan But we have been seeing China outperform somewhat and this is as we continue to see these bullish calls about upside for Chinese equities heading into the second half of the year Yusuf Yep some bright spots still very much in play over there Thank you very much Jules for the overview that's Juliet Sonny there I want to stay with the bank of Japan for a moment Now they've resisted the intensifying global wave of Central Bank tightening and the recent market pressures are global economics and policy editor Kathleen Hayes is here So Kathleen arguably the incision as expected but now the real test is going to come for the BOJ Well I say they're in the still in the middle of the real test wouldn't you I mean traders are who expected the BOJ to do something We're counting maybe a little too much on their ability to push the end to such a level where the BOJ would quote unquote have to act have to do something Here's the rare reference they made in their policy statement to the currency that it's necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices Now that doesn't seem like much On the other hand it is a rare reference In Central Bank ease they are acknowledging and admitting yes there is concern about this And yes they are watching it closely until very recently BOJ governor Corona was still saying hey look a weekend can help us because it.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"march. 2020" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"West Texas intermediate crude is down let's see 8 tenths of a percent 91 O three a barrel Comics gold is down a quarter of a percent of 1897 even announced that valerian won 1502 the Euro a dollar 1342 the British pound dollar 35 98 Ford is looking at ways to separate its electric vehicle operation from its century old legacy building business hoping to earn the sort of investor respect enjoyed by Tesla and other pure play EV makers Ford is up 3.3% right now That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues to have Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller All right Greg Jarrett thank you very much for that Pronunciation explainer on Eunice now you know and knowing half the battle Let's get over to back to the markets and get over to Wells Fargo security The head of equity strategy joins us Chris Harvey to talk about what's going on in these markets And Chris I guess you know your job has been made a lot more difficult the last few days because this geopolitical risk has to be harder to forecast than anything that feds ever done Yeah I think that's right The geopolitical is very hard to forecast We are very headline driven And it's just hard to parse out But I think getting back to the fed longer term it's really about the fed And we can talk about that as much or as Liz you want But until we get some sort of resolution on your current Russia it's going to continue to cause volatility But again I think the bigger picture which I really want to focus on longer term is the fed and what the fed is going to do All right let's go there Chris if you look at the wi RP function on the Bloomberg terminal it's new and improved It is new and improved It's pretty cool Talk about 7 rate increases in 2022 That seems kind of wacky to me to use the CFA term What do you think That's your scientific term I think What I find a little wacky is that they're still buying bonds but they've let 7 hikes come into the market We're still buying bonds I think when we look back over time we're going to realize we're going to scratch our heads Why do we continue to do this Why did we fed taper so long And tapering did cost some of the inflation that we're seeing Bigger picture the fed opened the door the fed really allowed themselves a lot of optionality to last meeting And I think they have to reduce that optionality because people are having a hard time planning They don't know if it's 25 or 50 They don't know if it's going to be 25 at a clip They really don't know what's going to happen when the balance sheet And I think the fed has to reduce their optionality They have to give people a little bit more clarity on the path that they're going to take And for us we're really focused on that march meeting because I don't think the diets cast just yet If they get very aggressive the second half in economically will be a lot tougher if they're much more moderate I think we can have a decent year and I think the economy will hold up just fine But you do think we're going to see a cut right You mean just don't know if it's a hike You just don't know if it's going to be 25 basis points or 50 That's right That's right So the markets tell you it's 25 that seems about right The fed hasn't been real clear about things but it would be surprising to me that if they go 50 but again anything's on the table they really need to provide a little bit more clarity and that's what's happening It's a market just uncertain about what they're doing And the speed of their turnarounds is often surprised people So until we get that March meeting it's just going to be a lot of volatility a lot of uncertainty And a lot of guessing by market participants Chris we're pretty much through this earnings season What are some of your takeaways here Did it leave any valuation risk you might have felt in this market Yeah forecasts have been slashed for earnings growth Exactly So one of the things that I think is happening under the same We talk a lot about supply chain The supply chain is kind of gotten swept away from the headlines with Ukraine and Russia But one of the positives that I've seen is the average company is having a difficult time with the supply chain But if you look at some of the larger companies Apple P and G even Walmart yesterday indicated this They seem to indicate that they could use their heft in their might to wrestle the supply chain and they did indicate that it seems for them that supply chain are the worst of the supply chain is over which I think is a good harbinger for other companies The other thing I would say about earnings season is we've been talking about higher prices and higher prices and I've never seen this kind of pricing in the summertime I was telling clients we've never seen this kind of pricing environment like 25 year career Now what we're seeing on pricing is pricing is still going higher but in the decelerating rate and one of the things we've been talking about does the consumer start to balk at some of these higher prices is a consumer is demand a little bit more elastic now than it was last year since pent up demand has been satisfied and it looks like we're beginning to see that And I think that's potentially a plus when it comes to inflation Hey Chris you guys are Wells Fargo You're over in Hudson yards right That's we have a number of offices but one of them is Hudson yards That's where our trading floor Yeah I mean what's it like over there I mean are people as I know they open this house They open Hudson yards it's amazing office complex and all the far west side of Manhattan But it's a high line over there Exactly But it seemed to open just before the pandemic Yep that's very cool What's it like over there Are there people there or is it a ghost town There are people there and what I would say so I live in New York or I live in the city And what I would say is whether on Saturday the weather was nice and people were out and about and it looked like a normal day Spring day whether it gets colder people come back inside I think the demand is there I think people want to get out I think they're willing to get out And I think in the springtime things are going to look a lot more normal I think people are a lot more comfortable I also have a child that goes to school in the city and I talked a lot in different parents and they're comfortable and they're ready to go Yeah I think I agree with you I think the city's going to explode in the next month or so Blossom Blossom is a much better Yeah it's just going to be I think there's a lot of pent up there All right Chris Harvey head of equity strategist at Wells Fargo securities.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"march. 2020" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Competed for China kept a big run in freestyle skiing won her third medal her second gold John stash Elliot Bloomberg's fourth John All right thanks a lot John It is now 6 37 on Wall Street This is Bloomberg daybreak Let's turn our attention to the fed and the economy right now joining us live with the Bloomberg interact and broker studios economics correspondent Mike McKee Mike good morning to you More fed officials are speaking You're sounding very hawkish Well you also have to take you to account Who is the answer is round up the usual suspects of hawks We've heard from some of the more hawkish members like Jim bullard at Esther George We're going to hear from a couple of key speakers today Charlie Evans seen as something of a moderate from Chicago He's speaking And John Williams who is the New York fed president and people pay a lot of attention to what he says because by tradition the fed New York fed president does not dissent from votes with the chairman So whatever he says will give you a pretty good idea of where Jay Powell is What are we expecting to hear The fed does feel that we've gone too far and inflation is too hot and they are going to raise interest rates but they're still not sure how far how fast we have pretty much come to a consensus on Wall Street in the last week that they're going to do between 5 and 7 rate increases this year There are 7 meetings left And does the fed think they need to go that far that fast I suspect we're going to hear an argument for being cautious and following the data these guys have to make their forecast for inflation and growth not knowing what's going to happen with the COVID pandemic whether we're going to have another variant And not knowing what's going to happen with Ukraine and Russia and what impact that might have on the economy So I think they're going to be more cautious than some people on Wall Street have been expecting How much of a difference is there between the Wall Street expectations and what the fed speakers have been saying I guess what I'm asking is are we set up for some big surprises to the markets I don't think we'll get big surprises The feds go to push back on the idea that they're locked into anything If you ask any of these fed officials are you going to do 7 rate increases this year they'll demur and say we are going to watch what happens in the economy before we decide But they are in agreement with the market that rates have to go up Big question is do they go up 50 basis points at the March meeting And I don't think we get an answer to that yet They'll want to wait until they see the next jobs and CPI figures in early March before they're meeting We're still buying assets still stimulating Does that matter or is it the rates that are the heavy lifters It doesn't matter to the economy because the amount they're buying is so small but the symbolism has been a problem for the fed And of course their issue is always communication with the markets and with the American people And the idea that they're still stimulating doesn't sit.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"march. 2020" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Since March 2020 but now more companies are giving employees the choice of whether they want to be in an office work from home or a hybrid of both Work is no longer defined by the location that it occurs in And that has that opens up a lot of opportunity but it presents a set of challenges both for the individuals as well as for the organizations that are part of Javier soltero is general manager and vice president at Google workspace He says employers play an important role in helping their employees navigate this new normal The most essential ingredient in tackling any worthwhile endeavor as a human race is a sense of connection that we establish amongst each other Salt Taro says Google relies on something called zero trust computing to lessen the chances of cyberattacks with people sharing information from virtually anywhere He says it's also important for both bosses and employees to be flexible and realize we can't ever know for sure what the future holds Jill Schneider Bloomberg radio This is a Bloomberg money minute The world is still recovering from the economic shock brought on by the shutdown nearly two years ago and while some shopping chains are never coming back COVID-19 may have helped save retail as a whole With the pandemic did was it created a huge incentive to change rapidly Bloomberg's Matt Townsend says COVID accelerated many of the changes that the rise of ecommerce brought on like online deliveries and new ways to connect with consumers Retailers of all sizes and shapes basically tried all this innovation invested a lot of money and they're still adapting to new trends Now the more shoppers are still working from home David Luke's his president and CEO of site centers corporation which leases and operates shopping centers There's more people in the suburbs They have more money And because of this ongoing hybrid work they're just around shopping centers more frequently so they're using convenience trips to drive a lot of sales And driving more retail leasing Luke says that he's seen in 20 years Nathan Hager Bloomberg radio It's.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"march. 2020" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"COVID-19 cases in the region at the same time we got asset manager Citadel Blackstone and millenniums saying that staff may once again work remotely at least for the next several weeks What a surprise today from the Bank of England to be shocked markets and raised interest rates for the first time in three years Governor Andrew Bailey said inflation prompted today's move Market is very tight at the moment And companies around the country when I talk to them tell me this This is the number one story Talk about difficult as a recruitment Secondly there are I have to say signs of the inflationary pressures which of course are difficult inflation and just over 5% is difficult What we've been looking at closely at is how persistent it's likely to be And there are signs now of more persistent price pressure Now these remarks do represent a shift in tone for the British Central Bank previously the BOE said most pressures on prices were temporary That's the transitory word right Well now governor Bailey is expecting the consumer price index to top 6% in the coming months That would be tripled to BOE's target Rashad Okay we've got the ECB the European Central Bank temporarily boosting regular monthly bond buying for half a year the ECB trying to soften the impact of a future withdrawal of stimulus President Kristin Nagar unveiled forecasting a strong economic rebound along with an outlook for faster inflation We are really making progress towards target Are we at target given that our target is 2% over the medium term And looking at the three criterias of our forward guidance not quite Is there an upside risk There is possibly an upside risk All right well I'd say much of the current inflation surge is driven by high energy prices and constrained supply saying that it should pass eventually Of course transitory again I guess Yeah right Central Bank policy clearly one of the big drivers for a lot of the price section that we're seeing these days we know is a result of yesterday's fed meeting where we're looking at an acceleration in the pace of tapering those asset purchases and we also know the fed is forecasting three rate hikes in the new year It was interesting today because the Euro dollar futures market removed some of those hikes This may be reflecting the risk of a policy error question has the fed waited too long and will the fed tighten too much And now as we get set for trading in Asia we pivot to Tokyo the bank of Japan holds center stage today for their policy meeting It seems as though the BOJ will stand pat If you look at what's happening right now we've got a stronger yen one 1367 against the dollar and the futures contract trading in Chicago for the nikkei 28,835 so we're about a hundred points or so below where we were in the cash market yesterday in Japan I would say look for a little bit of vulnerability in the technology space today NASDAQ composite was lower by two and a half percent throw at a couple of names for you Apple down 4% today Tesla shares off 5% Look at Adobe stock tumbled 10% and shares in Qualcomm weaker by about 6% today The entire U.S. yield curve shifted lower This may also reflect concern about growth going forward with another wave of virus infections that will hear about momentarily two year treasury 61 basis points a ten year at one 41 and the entire yield curve as I mentioned drifting lower So the dollar right now is a little soft with the Bloomberg dollar spot index kind of holding firm The offshore Chinese currency a little weaker here not by much at 6.3802 against the greenback We'll take another look at market action in about 15 minutes All right it is now coming up to 25 minutes to the top of the hour The U.S. Senate confirmed Nicholas burns as a U.S. ambassador to China Let's get over to San Francisco and join Ed Baxter Yeah this has been in the waiting been and now it's done.
TalkRadio 630 KHOW
"march. 2020" Discussed on TalkRadio 630 KHOW
"For the rest of this week through Friday's farewell episode, you'll want to be sure to call in and what will be our final Aloha Friday. For the 2 to 4 program. You know you thinking back at a time when Dr Anthony Fauci wasn't honest guy, right? And there was a time you're going to laugh. You're going to think well, he's full of crap now, and he's become political. And there are prayer candles made to honor him, and I can't trust a word that's coming out of that guy's mouth. None of that is false. But there are a couple clips that I want to play for you. That demonstrate there has been I guess you'd call the de evolution. Of Dr Fauci, and we'll start with the more recent one. This was march of 2020. You may have heard us referenced this before, but it's Dr Fauci be incredibly honest about the efficacy and need For masks during a pandemic. When you're in the middle of an outbreak. Wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better, and it might even block of droplet. But it's not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And often. There are unintended consequences. People keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face. Interesting. That's what Dr Jon Lapook on 60 minutes March 2020 and he made several good points. Many of which are the masks don't offer the perfect protection, it might block a droplet or two. But it doesn't block all of them. And for those in the know, and I've talked to many in the medical field, the N 95 surgical masks that are worn in operating rooms, primarily Are there to blunt bacterial infection bacterial droplets, which are much larger than viral droplets. The best defense. Against Covid the flu. I mean, you talk about things like Any kind of virus that is transmitted through an aerosol form. Is something that is going to sound like Joe Rogan said. Not that Long ago, but this is from two years ago. This is from two years ago, Dr Anthony Fauci offering advice. To an interviewer to prevent getting an infectious disease and having to have you as my doctor is what, um, wearing a mask? No, no do that Somebody can see they're ready to sneeze or cough. Walk away. You avoid all the paranoid aspects and do something positive. Okay, I want to stop it right there, and I want to rewind it. Listen to Dr Fauci is reaction when he's asked about somebody wearing a mask to avoid getting sick with the virus to prevent getting an infectious disease and having to have you as my doctor is what Um, wearing a mask? No, no, you do that. Uh, no, no, no, no now, and he laughs. He laughs right there, because it's ridiculous. And he knows that wearing a mask is not the best defense. Against infection. In fact, it is exposing yourself. To the natural process of gaining immunity to bacterial infections to viral infections, trusting and building your own immune system. And Fauci builds on that point, and we'll start it over to prevent getting an infectious disease and having to have you as my doctor is what, um, wearing a mask? No, no, You do that. If somebody's I can see the reading, radio sneeze or cough, walk away, you avoid all the paranoid aspects and do something positive. They Good diet B. You don't smoke. I know. I know You don't drink at least not very much. So that's pretty good. Get some exercise. I know that you don't get as much exercise as you should. That's correct. Good sleep. I think that the normal low tech healthy things are the best thing that you can do. David Estate, right? What? I'm going to try to do that. And hopefully when I next see you, I will be even Healthier than I am today. I would imagine you would be and I look forward to that. Thank you very much. You're welcome. I would imagine you would be but having a strong diet. Exercising. I mean, exactly what your doctor tells you to do, because why? Because you have to live your life. You have to go out into the wild. You have to go out in dealing with the public. You're going to expose yourself? Yes to sickness illness. And you're probably going to get sick at some point. Now you can choose to boost those immunities. With the vaccine. I struggle with the term vaccine when we have to protect the vaccinated from the unvaccinated. I don't remember them, saying that about polio. I don't remember them, saying that about the mumps. And I don't remember them, saying that about measles. Or rubella. So we get those inoculations when we're younger. There is more here. Herd immunity that has been built over the last 50 60 going on 70 years. With the polio vaccine. It's a work of wonder. It's a medical miracle that there is a polio vaccine that we no longer in the Western world. The first world. Have to worry about getting polio anymore. But even back then before there was a polio vaccine. We didn't shut down the country. Polio is far worse, far worse. Then Covid 19 from the vast majority of people. The degree to which we've responded to this pandemic, which is serious and needed to be addressed. But the overreach the overreaction the panic, the fear could continues to manifest itself in our media. Here's Dana Bash, CNN. Talking to our surgeon General Murthy. The government is already mandating masks to travel on a plane or a train. But I don't know if you've had this this experience, but I've been on planes recently. You're sitting there, people lift up their masks to eat and to drink. That's understandable. So given that reality is a public health official. Would it be a good idea to mandate the vaccine for travel on that plane or on a train before we get to Murphy's answer? There's a portion of this from Dana that I want to revisit. People lift up their masks to eat and to drink. That's understandable. Why is that understandable? If the masks are the end all and be all and they prevent and they are like a brick damn that that knocks down covid in its tracks prevents at 100% from being transmitted. Why are we permitted to take them off at all? Why was that? Okay? What For? That moment, people lift up their masks to eat and to drink. That's understandable. Why? Why? Can I not transmit Covid when I take off my mask to eat or to drink? The whole thing makes it foolish. The whole idea the notion of masks. It's foolish because most people don't know how to wear the mask directly. Won't wear them correctly. Move them. Adjust them. Like Dr Fauci said. On 60 minutes, you get schmutz up in there. And you know you've got the young carbon dioxide coming back into your mouth And you don't want to breathe that. You know you don't want to Consume that, you know there's no rhyme. Ration reason for wearing a mask. It's all arbitrary. It's all for show. It's all theater. It's all psychological so that people feel better. I compared it to the blanket that Linus has on peanuts. It makes them feel better. It makes them feel more secure. Does it do anything functionally? Not really not the way we're wearing them and that when Dana Bash says something like their masks to eat and to drink, that's understandable. No, it's not. If you're going letter of the law masks work. Come hell or high water, then you shouldn't take them off for any reason. Because the moment you take them off, that's what you're doing. And Biden's done this 100 times over the weekend During the 9 11 memorials, he takes off his mask to yell at people to project things spittle into the air. I've seen coaches do this on the sidelines in college basketball games in NBA games. They're wearing a mask right there wearing the mask, and then they lower the mask. To yell at their players, sometimes from close range, defeating the entire purpose of the mask. Whether they put it back on because it makes them look like they care and they're doing their part. Here's Dr Murthy is answer well,.
WTOP
"march. 2020" Discussed on WTOP
"Preparing for a lot of customers over the holidays. A Web analytics company says that Internet searches for December travel are five times higher than they were a year ago. One analyst predicts that home rentals this holiday season maybe as much as 82% higher than they were in 2019. If you haven't gone back to the office yet, but plan to W. T O P s Jeff Klee boss says, you might find it a little bit smaller 58% of businesses that still have office space say they have closed some of it since March, 2020. Mm. Digital dot coms as larger companies. Those with 500 or more employees are more likely to have shed some or even all of their office space, remote work and cutting expenses or top reasons. Even so, only 16% of business owners who have shed office space think that there are no benefits to having employees in the office. Up ahead here on W T O P some push back toward President Biden's new vaccine mandates. It's 8 56. Yes, week. One of the NFL is here is so much uncertainty, but I have something that certain on the Fed those sports for Gap. This is Dave Johnson. Vandal Sports book is celebrating with 40 to 1 odds on any week one NFL game. Yeah, go ahead and ask the question Who doesn't want to win? $200 on a $5 bet? Yeah. No need to answer. I know the answer. It really is that simple. You see new customers Get 40 to 1 odds when you place your first wager Vandal is sports betting made simple as I've told you. Fanjuls Sports What Gap is so easy to use? And for week one. I'll keep it simple. Go with the Ravens over the Raiders. Yeah, that's pretty simple and go ahead. You should see for yourself. Why Fanduel is America's number one sports book. Just sign up with the promo code, Dave Johnson and you could win $200 on.
KOMO
"march. 2020" Discussed on KOMO
"Porter Way the second lane from the right currently blocked with a bit of slowing back to the King Pierce County line from there are next combo traffic. Is it 1 44. Erin Zan checks are forecast. Sun breaks developing this afternoon highs in the mid seventies, and we're going to keep the sunshine around on Monday, so get ready for a very nice holiday temps a few degrees warmer on Monday, and then Tuesday and Wednesday. The clouds the morning afternoon sun in the couple of the student turns on common news. Cloudy sky 75 right now in Seattle Labor Day marks the end of the federal government's unemployment benefits that were extended because of Covid 19. Cuomo, Suzanne phone reports on the challenge many jobless workers are facing after having her baby Brianna Andrews headed straight back to work in the hospitality industry. Her husband is staying home to watch the four young kids and has been on unemployment since March. 2020. I'm working a full time job. I'm the only one who's you know, able to work right now, because he has to be home with the kids. We can't you know, justify sending our kids to school with adults, a variant. One federal unemployment benefits run out of Labor Day. Andrews's husband will lose $2800 a month and unemployment benefits, which has been critical in helping them get by. It's meant that we've been able to pay you know our utility bills. It's You know, putting a roof over my Children's head to federal unemployment benefit programs expire. One program provides jobless aid to self employed and gig workers. The other program extended benefits an extra 13 weeks after people ran out of regular unemployment benefits, millions more people will also lose the.
WSB-AM
"march. 2020" Discussed on WSB-AM
"Certainly could. But we're looking at an unusually widespread in the track forecast models in the extended range anywhere from the golf for South Going to east of, uh The Bermuda so it's really kind of strange right now. The official track takes it actually up the west Coast of Florida and into South Georgia next Tuesday or Wednesday. But as I said, the uncertain uncertainty level is much higher than normal. Okay, reason to check back with you. Hey, thanks, Kirk. Let's get back to the morning Drive again from our McKay this morning. It's Dr Bull. Found a problem with the DeKalb County interludes got 25 southbound. Actually, it's fire department activity in the left lane at Glenwood on the left shoulder north down there at exit 44 Glenwood to such slow in both directions on the WSB jam Cam and now to the northern suburbs, 400 make that 75 Excuse me, It's going to be slow before and after Highway five and waves down toward to 85. Still a bit of a slow zone. 5 75 south of Woodstock, near Highway 92. Most delays have ironed out out of Brazelton earlier Crash 85 South on Highway 2 11 and through Duluth to North Cross 85 is sluggish but improving 400 Ashley Frasca. Add 5 to 10 minutes to your commute Getting through Sandy Springs, 400 Coton really starting to bog down between Northridge and 2 85 traffic brought you by Premier tree Solutions for all of your tree care needs, check them out to chop my tree dot com That's chopped my tree dot com and now covering the South side, too. Triple team traffic. 95.5 WSB Chris Gap just slipped me a note. The Delta Flight Museum is opening today for the first time since March, 2020. You can look up the hours on Google. That's a great experience..
WCBM 680 AM
"march. 2020" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM
"2021. You are listening to the O. Reilly update. Here's what's happening across our nation. Investigators hunt for causes of the terrible condo collapsed near Miami. Donald Trump's attorney says the New York D A will not file charges against the former president. American travelers return to the airports in a big way majority of Republicans believe the pandemic is over. Democrats say Not so fast. Also, I had the iPhone is taking over the world, but first Investigators searching for answers over why an apartment building suddenly collapsed near Miami. Experts say it's too early to determine the exact cause. Some suggest structural integrity. Was compromised after 40 years of wind and erosion. Others believe saltwater spray from the ocean may have corroded metal support beams. Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Ronald Fischetti, telling reporters the Manhattan D a Cy Vance is not going to charge The former president. Said Mr Fischetti quote. It's a lot to do about nothing. This is so small. I can't believe I'm going to have to try a case like this. Definitive word should come down this week. Mr Trump returning to the border tomorrow for the first time Since leaving the White House, the former president will join Texas Governor Greg Abbott for a tour of the region. As you may know, Vice President Harris briefly stopped in El Paso last Friday before Getting off to a private home in Brentwood, California, Donald Trump, obviously looking to show up the Biden administration. The feds reporting the highest number of travelers since March, 2020. The S a screen more than two million passengers last weekend. That number could double during the Fourth of July holiday of coming Air travel plunged 96% Because of Covid. Survey from Gallup says 57% of Republicans believe the pandemic is now over that stat drops to 35% for independence. Just 4%. Democrats think Covid is vanquished. Cases of the contagion in the USA are down 98% from January with the deli death rate hovering at about 300, almost all Of those deceased are on Vax. In a moment. The iPhone takes over the planet..
NBC Nightly News
"march. 2020" Discussed on NBC Nightly News
"With record number of travelers returning to airports after historic pandemic lows. Tonight the tsa warning a memo obtained by the washington. Post that more than one hundred. Thirty of the nation's largest airports are struggling to staff airport screeners the ripple effect from the tsa shortage already being felt by travelers at major airports security lines. So long in austin in charlotte hundreds of travelers have missed their flights while airports in detroit denver and outside washington dc reportedly among the hardest hit like zoo with summer. Spike in air. Travel expected atop. Tsa official warning help ded asking tsa office workers to volunteer to manage long lines and other non security related tasks according to the memo union rep. Say this problem can be solved overnight. You can't train the metal weeks. Tsa is a very dangerous job at don't know what we get very minimum wage. Tsa releasing a statement insisting the agency is well positioned to meet rising traveler volumes pointing to a concerted recruitment effort. The agency began in the winter with thousand dollar incentives for positions nationwide. If you're traveling this summer experts say arrive at the airport two to three hours before your flight. And don't forget to wear your masks. Still a federal requirement. Both at the airport and in the air luster thanks. President biden is ended. Those negotiations on infrastructure with a republican senator and now a bipartisan group of lawmakers is moving forward with their own plan for a deal. Garrod hake has more for us from the capitol tonight. Infrastructure negotiations entering a new phase with president biden ending talks with a group of republicans led by senator shelley moore capito on tuesday and reaching out to members of a bipartisan group of moderate senators. The group huddling for three hours in a cramped capital basement office last night. We've come together with the proposal that Maybe the bridge the gap between the two sides. The senators haven't released any details of their proposal except that it won't raise taxes at all a red line for attracting. Gop votes that a difficult task with republicans opposed to much of the president's initial plan as frustration builds among some democrats to drop. Bipartisan talks. And move to pass as much as they can with just fifty democratic votes itself a work in progress. If this doesn't work would you be willing to go it alone with the democrat only option. I never give up. Never give up that. Bipartisan group knows. Time isn't on their side. One senator telling me today. They only have about a week to get a deal. Lester jared thank you now to the record migrant surge in our series american crossroads. Nbc's tom yomas getting a firsthand. Look at the extreme measures. Some migrants are now using to try to avoid the border patrol and get into the us more and more the coast of southern california turning into a floating crime scene a new surge at this border creating a life and.
Newsradio 600 KOGO
"march. 2020" Discussed on Newsradio 600 KOGO
"With being remembered by his home state. A section of West Virginia State Highway 34 has been named for the late Rocker Rock and Roll Hall of Famer was born in the tiny town of Slab Fork in the southern part of the state. He died in March. 2020 of Cupid She like of pussy, Okay, a million dollars for a fixer upper her Cobain's former home going up for sale. It's a two story Hollywood home just under 2500 Square feet. Theatric ng price is $998,000. Now you would think Well, it's sounds like a decent price. Well, here's the thing. It's called a major fixer, so you gotta take it all the way down to the studs. My friend. The home holds an important place in Nirvana History, The 2011 documentary. It's so hard claims that Cobain wrote most of the third and final Nirvana album in Utero in That home. Which makes you wonder. It's like, then how did it turn into such a hole? I don't know. But in this market, it's probably gonna go very fast for a lot. Probably a lot more. It's listed for. Yeah, yeah. Okay? Cure Gallagher brothers. They're naming the price it would take to get away suspect together. Speaking of Jonathan Ross show, Noel Gallagher said he would reunite the band for £100 million. So in U. S dollars, that's more than 141 million, Noll said..
103.5 KISS FM
"march. 2020" Discussed on 103.5 KISS FM
"This'll is what's trending logs in just a 2nd 1000 bucks about 10 minutes away. U. S deaths from the coronavirus fell to their lowest in nearly 14 months last week, and the number of new cases continued to decline. For 1/5 week in a row details for the weekend. It may 16 total 4165 the lowest weekly death toll since March, 2020 in the country reported 2200 deaths so infected in Texas. They reported no covert desk for the first time in 13 months, So maybe that's all good news. If you look outside, especially in certain parts of the country, it looks like nothing ever happened. I'm talking to you. Nashville over the weekend. Oh, my God. Um, it was I was on Broadway. You are? Yeah, I was that to it. See, I'm always in Texas. Yeah, well, they wanted me to perform, Of course, but I country song with. Oh, um, in a hurry to get things done. Oh, yeah. Is that Alabama? Yes. Yeah, it is. I think this morning I sell people not wearing masks. Outside. You don't have to know Is that happen when you're vaccinated or the CDC has a very clear Ah, very easy to understand. Yeah, and the CDC but then that the states have different, But, you know, regulations. Stores have different stuff. Chicago's different than everyone. So it's very simple to understand what you're able to do. And the math equation for restaurants vaccinated. None of that is really clear and concise. Not at all. I'm gonna somewhere about Chicago. We'll find out today. Laurie is gonna tell us Okay, what we're doing. Sorry. Yeah, well, you got a first name basis Whether I have course I'm not. I just call our marriage would of life One man me because I can't spit it out like she Whenever she's in here. I'm like Mayor Lowrie Life. Marah Marah, Larry, I call her everything. I just can't do it like this point. Don't even try like she just knows already. Gas prices in the U. S. Reached a new seven year high of $3.4 yesterday. Despite comes after the cyber attack on the nation's largest fuel pipeline and cost nearly weeklong outage. Mass panic buying Um yes, Your iPhone is taking invisible pictures of you. The video showing a mobile device snapping infrared images of an iPhone user is circulating around the Internet is a TIC tac video. A digital camera using an infrared lens is seen filming an iPhone user observing his home screen as the iPhone user stares of the device. This person's digital camera captures the phone, snapping multiple infrared images every 5 to 10 seconds Since the video was uploaded on social media, may 8th it has garnered 230,000 likes 18,000 shares. Um Apple says This is actually just an aspect of the iPhone that allows users to control their face. I'd And the animal emoji function. The company says that the features part of the new, true depth IR camera, the camera, housed in the back notch of the top of the display includes a number of high tech components like the flood illuminator infrared can, anyway, they're saying it's part of that how the thing takes pictures. But really, what it is is they're taking invisible photos of you. And you know it's listening to you. You know it is listening to you. Okay. Well, if you have good photos, please send them to me. My grandma's slacking and so I would appreciate it. What I love. People are worried about the coronavirus microchipping. You know that If you get the vaccine, your microchip get you still carry a phone around in your pocket all the time. That's listening to everything you say and taking pictures of you so much hardship me. Let's go. Let's keep that in the consumer. Let's just think about that for a second, U. S. Airlines might need to start weighing customers at the gate in order to comply with the FAA rules for safety reasons. Carriers have to calculate an aircraft's waiting balance. It has to be within allowable limits for the plane. The problem, the assumptions they've been using her passages are outdated. Americans are getting bigger, and the federal government wants airlines to find out how much bigger the passengers have gotten. According to the FAA. Airlines can use standard weights published by the CBC for larger aircraft, But they outline a method for smaller planes to determine actual passenger and bag waits. So it's possible that before you get on a plane, they might say, Put the bag on the deal and then put yourself on the deal. No girl. Oh, wait, like popping up in front of people who picks way. Don't need it. You can You imagine like if you're Too big and they're like, sorry you can't go because you know what I mean. Like I suppose I could happen, And it wouldn't necessarily matter if you're too big Did you would matter who else I guess waiting ahead of you right? So I don't know. It could be very demoralizing. 13 reason why Penn State will stop using the terms, freshman and sophomore. Their faculty Senate approved a proposition that would remove gendered and buy a merry terms from their course in program descriptions. The proposition recommends changing the terms Freshman sophomore junior and senior to first year second, you're third year and fourth year as well as replacing the terms underclassmen, an upperclassman with lower division. An upper division so we can't use those words anymore. On nearly two thirds of Americans say they are now more selfless than ever because of the pandemic. I don't know if I would have thought maybe You know, I mean, like, you've only had to worry about yourself for a year because he really can't worry about anybody else's see anybody else So I would think maybe you'd be more self ish. It's more self list. Researchers talk to 2000 people in the U. S valid 75 74% believe the 2020 has made them more aware of the needs of others. And since March of last year, 41% City of help a stranger across the street 38% of going out of their way to take out their neighbor's trash. Another 31% have walked a neighbor's dog. Yeah, that makes sense. Like I used to grocery shop for my neighbor because he was too old. So it does kind of forced you to think about other people. So yeah, I suppose it's national visit your relatives Day and National HIV Vaccine Awareness Day as well. We'll come back into blog's and get 2000 Bucks. French traffic This reporter sponsored by Whole Foods Market Indonesians 23 minutes late Cook Road Down to the Kennedy Junction Kennedy 35 minutes. So here into downtown the Eisenhower 53.
WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"march. 2020" Discussed on WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"Three degrees in Boston at 10 o'clock that evening. I'm Dan Walk ins. Here's what's happening. In the garden through eighth grade students and nearly 70 school District's are about to return to fully in person learning after getting a three week waiver from the state that time is up on Monday, and many students will be back in the classroom for the first time in a year. WBC's match here checked in with two of the biggest districts across the state. March 2020 was the last time Boston public school students were in the classroom full time. Was K through eight returns this week. There will be some new rules. Sorry. They need to be feeling well to come to school on Ben wearing their math, But Superintendent Brenda Cassie Alias expects more than a few smiles under those masks being greeted by the teachers. I'm sure they're all going to be really excited, so they'll be some celebrations in the street in Somerville. Superintendent Mary Skipper says those greetings won't come until late morning will be doing Two hour delay and then its students will come in. You know what is that all of our staff were able to do ah, over 19 rapid tests and despite the fact that it's nearly the end of April, she says, This feels like the first week of a whole New year match here, WBZ Boston's news radio in South Carolina tomorrow, school districts in the Palmetto State will be required to offer in person learning to students five days a week, However, a severe shortage of substitute teachers will complicate a return to the classroom. W S P A T V. Reporter Scotty K. Spoke to one state education official who was concerned about how the shortage will impact students. Patrick Kelly with the Palmetto State Teachers Association, says substitute teachers are more important now than they ever have them. As students have experienced incredible disruption to learning over the past 14 months because of Cove, it average year the district was able to fill 85% of daily teacher absences with a substitute teacher so they could kill 85% of those slots. This year. They've been trending closer to 45% and South Carolina's governor Henry McMaster.
WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"march. 2020" Discussed on WBZ NewsRadio 1030
"Drizzle turning into steady rain tonight and when England will continue to get a wintry mix with northwest of 4 95 Seeing a lot of ice drying cloudy tomorrow high 45. And then a sunny day for Wednesday up the 30, some snow coming in on Thursday up the 32. We could see several inches of snow and then that turning into rain for Friday right now it is 29 degrees. Some freezing rain in Boston at 4 45 live Local and fiercely independent. This is WBC news radio. Good afternoon on Madison Rodgers here. The five things you need to know at 4 45. Police in Manchester, New Hampshire. I'm looking for Timothy Johnson, who's accused of shooting a man to death over the weekend. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says Congress will establish an independent September 11th style commission looking into the capital riot on January 6th. Boston College fires basketball coach Jim Christian with a team of 3, 13 and 19 in a C C play. Massachusetts State police have identified the man who was struck and killed by a tractor trailer in Framingham on Saturday as Mustafa Fathi of Mar Mar. Grow Special Obamacare enrollment period opens today aimed at helping Americans who may have lost their health insurance during the pandemic. ABC is Elizabeth shells he has more from Washington. Starting today, uninsured Americans will have three months to buy health insurance under the Affordable Care act as part of an extended enrollment window. President Biden announced the move in an executive order last month. He continued about Kovar 19. Even more critical Americans that meaningful access to health care. In a statement this morning, Biden encouraged Americans to sign up for coverage at healthcare dot gov. And he made a push for his covert relief package that would increase federal subsidies for health care. Elizabeth Halsey, ABC NEWS Washington Lawmakers on the Cape aren't happy with the Baker administration. WBC's robbed. Woodward reports elected officials here on the Cape voicing their displeasure with Governor Charlie Baker in the Department of Public Health. Over the dearth of covert vaccines available on the Cape over 20 state lawmakers signed a letter to the governor last week asking him to reconsider several aspects of the state's vaccine rollout. Cape Cod State Senator Julian's here and state Reps. Dylan Fernandez and Tim Whalen criticized the vaccine rollout on Cape Cod last week and now found the town manager Julian Suso, also speaking out. Following the 975 doses coming to Barnstable County per week completely unacceptable. That was in a letter to the governor on Friday from the Cape Cod bureau. Rob ordered WBZ Boston's news radio covert cases are down across the country. But there's new worry about at least one of the virus mutations ABC. They're in Qatar ski has more. The very in first discovered in Britain is not only more contagious but also more deadly. Tempting, though it is for cities and states to ease restrictions has the caseload drop. Doctor. She's jot, the Brown University School of Public Health, told ABC News. Now is not the time. I totally understand why cases are down. They want to do it. I would say, Hold a little longer. Let's get a bunch of the Irish people vaccinated that it will be safer to do so. The U. S. Has now administering an average of 1.7 million vaccine doses every day. States say they could doom or if they had the supply. Aaron Carter SKI ABC NEWS New York New data looks at ER visits as a whole nation wide sense. The initial lockdown in March 2020. The number of Americans going to the ER went way down at first. But another statistic is grim visits because of drug overdoses decreased on Lee slightly. And then shot way up. Researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found visits to the emergency room plummeted in March, 2020 falling 43% compared to 2019, but drug overdoses were down only 4% before increasing again in April. The study also found weekly trips to the E R for overdoses were up 45% last year compared to 2019. The CDC says the pandemic may have accelerated drug overdose deaths specifically fatalities caused by synthetic opioids. Wendy Gillette CBS News Ah Weymouth couple has a vision. Hundreds of rainbow pride flags displayed all around town during Pride Month in June. So they started to make the way with pride Project to make their vision come true. WBC's Suzanne Saz Ville reports. It all started one day when Anne Marie Reardon was in her front yard and two people driving by stop to thank her for flying the rainbow flag outside her home in the first endeavor. Of this pride project is the Rainbow Flag Initiative. Her husband, Michael Jaworski, says they not only want to raise awareness but also help those in the LGBT Q. Community feel less alone. You could see a pride flag flying throughout the town. Then you know that there are other people like you. They hope to raise enough money to hand out 500 Pride flags for free. If they have any leftover money they love to do other things like create a scholarship fund for LGBT Q students. Suzanne Saz Bill WBZ Boston's news radio, Another date on a story We brought you yesterday. Massachusetts State police have identified the man who was struck and killed by a tractor trailer in Framingham on Saturday. Police say 57 year old moose stuff of Fathi of Marlboro was driving on route 90 Saturday morning when his car broke down. Thought he got out of the car and was later struck by a tractor trailer driven by a New Jersey man. No charges.
WTVN
"march. 2020" Discussed on WTVN
"To today's show. And you know how we can help our listeners navigate this turbulent, choppy time these financial markets and get him on the road to retirement. That's right and get their confidence. I think choppy waters is a good way to look at it. We've got a change in administrations, it appears, and it also appears that We have a shift in the power in Congress going from Republican to Democrat and you know, Mike when we see that and we see the pandemic still looming, it does make people uneasy. And rightly so. There's a lot of unknown out there The good news and you always say this. Your message is get a plan because if you do have a good, comprehensive plan for retirement, that's what instills the confidence that no matter what comes your way. You're going to make it through and I love that about the approach you take with your clients. I want to start out with a subject that maybe it's not our favorite. But boy, When you get a handle on it, it can make all the difference to your retirement and that's taxes as we kick off a new year. What should we be thinking about? How can we be proactive on this tax issue? Well, you know, certainly we've been covering this events. We just had events this prior week. A lot of people still coming out and you know, we're still hearing to covet, you know, procedures and whatnot. But we're going people are coming out that are really concerned. We're getting a lot of questions about taxes, and we've actually implemented some tax information throughout our presentations that we do local events throughout central aisle. You know, One of the things obviously concerned about is the new administration and what's gonna happen to taxes and, you know, back in October and November, you know, prior to the election, you know, people say what happens if Biden gets in, and obviously we had the election and then But you know, certainly taxes are going to go up, you know, and one of the things I stressed the people and let's let's go back down Memory Lane. Not not that we want to go back to 7 4008 09, But if you remember that period of time, that's when the mortgage collapse happened. Um and, you know, obviously, stock market dropped and You know, we were going out Wall Street banks, the car companies everything else. And do you remember Meghan? How much you know Congress stepped in and build out the U. S economy. You remember that number Was about 7 to $800 billion and back Then everyone's like $7800 billion. The feds gonna step in and do what You remember that? We're all shaking. Our hands were like calling MacLachlan from home alone. Remember? Remember that. Remember that movie? We're all like that. You know what I mean? Oh, yeah, We're like we're like, What is our government doing? You know, I can't believe that we're bound out the Wall Street banks in the car companies. You know, it was like unheard off. Let ZPass forward to march 2020. How much did did the Federal Reserve Dole out? Okay, This is the first time that us as Americans we got, you know if you get your lucky enough to get that extra 612 $100 stimulus one stimulus to check great that helped you and your family. But how much does that cost? Well. Estimates are between 4 to $6 trillion for covert one in just a few weeks ago. Towards the end of the year, Congress pushed through a $2.3 trillion relief aid covert to package So we're talking What $68 trillion conservatively that we have done? What issued that international debt. So what's gonna happen to taxes? You talked about that earlier. You know, it's a New year's taxes, taxes. Are they going to go down? The answer's no taxes are not gonna go down. In fact, taxes have to do what they've got to go up, and that's one of the concerns. I really tell people is that you know, the concern is what's going to happen in taxes going forward. Well, we're hearing there's gonna be repeal of capital gains. That could go up to 39%. But it's going to take some time. But now with by having both sides of the house in Senate, obviously that can be put through a lot quicker. So again, Roth conversions would be one of the big things that really stress were stressing the people. We have tax software that goes through these analysis to say. How much can we put into A Roth conversion. Let's say we're retired, or let's say you're still working. But you have another IRA from another employer work with the other couple. Other clients as well. They're working in a major corporation, but they got desire a 70 80 90 100,000. Now we're looking to do a Roth conversion on that, IRA. Why do we wanna do that conversion because we're at low tax rates right now. And if we grow this money, and we got 10 15 20 years to grow that money, including all the growth when we fought income, it's tax free. I pay zero in taxes. So you know again we have till the end of the year. 12 31 2021 to do rough conversions. Obviously, if you didn't do it prior year in and 2020, you can't do Roth conversions and I mean you could do it throughout the year of 2021. But you have the whole year to do that. I'm hoping that buying doesn't make significant sweet changes the tax code right away. You know, From that standpoint, I was gonna take him some time to get that pushed through. But the bottom line of it is a Roth conversion is a beautiful way to take to basically take into consideration our current tax code and have a meaningful impact on you during your retirement. So that's one area the second area, I would say, you know, if you're charitably inclined, weaken, do donor advised funds. We can show people how to utilize charities how to reduce their taxes and the third way we get into it. As we talk about, you know, if you have additional monies that you know you're you're already maxing out on your 401 case. Maybe you're putting 26,500 if you're over 50 and your 401 k, you know, maybe I could do that Roth, where I can put that in my 401 k or I set up a Roth outside the 41 cat can do $7000 a year. But the other way, If you're looking for tax free income is we can look at life insurance again. We saw for a low face a mountain as far as life insurance. We put as much as we can in the life insurance because again life insurance when you pull out distributions, 10 15 years down the road. That money also comes out his tax free income to the insured, So there's there's definitely ways that you can Start planning again. Having that plan is important. When we stressed about what's gonna happen when taxes we know taxes going to go up. How can you minimize your taxes? We can use the current tax code right now. Start.
KTAR 92.3FM
"march. 2020" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM
"Ended in March. 2020 because of the pandemic. A B C's faith of booby, the outgoing president is now the only president in U. S history to be impeached twice the earliest his trial in the Senate could start is the day Joe Biden is sworn in as president. While the House has made this judgment, it will be on the Senate and a divided Senate to decide exactly what to do about it. The consequences now in the balance, Just this. Joe Biden begins to take office. It will be a remarkable split screen in the first days of the Biden presidency to be continuing to litigate. President Trump and his legacy and, ultimately, his future and what he conduce moving forward. ABC News Political director Reclined Ah, week Before inauguration, The FBI and Secret Service briefed President elect Biden, according to his transition team. He was told about the potential for additional violence in the coming days. The team says Biden is taking the threats incredibly seriously. It's unclear whether there will be any changes to inauguration security. ABC is Pierre Thomas on the pandemic, The government says nearly all metropolitan areas over a half million in population are seeing a full resurgence. E of COVERT 19 the covert tracking project reports 4022 deaths in the latest reporting period. That is the third time the daily death toll topped 4000. You're listening to ABC News. Have you ever thought about saying good bye to your job? Just walking into your boss and saying I quit. And how would you like to commute to work without ever leaving your home will not long ago, A 39, year old entrepreneur from a billionaire family spent $20 million.3 years to find the best home based business in North America. He researched 70 different companies, and when he found the only one that had real long term potential, he bought it. And right now he's looking for people to help him turned this company into his next billion dollar success story. So if you're serious about making money from home without having to leave your home, we'll grab a pen because I'm about to give you the address of a website where you can learn all about.