19 Episode results for "Macos"
Una taza de Dios T#2 ep#20 Distanciado
"Decisively christopher literary compared competitor. Most podcasts cashew for your sh Can They did or idea on the radio about distant by But lucas Gwendal ya via Cassesse the committee on his advice yet. boost with a whole of number inch of ice guest idea committed the commandos. Bit chosun quoted According to your choice wouldn't get a visit by details in a senator. Tv could use in the guinness with esotique available than okay for votes initial restore and done. This could that allen those yes macos could be judith. Thrace so they think again got okay just garrett as as roma near me momma This for saturday Loss number What islam yes doping throw sent you also google but as aba Gme the dentist. Overdoses as said this amend who do Turn step looks at every shooters chose somebody.
Trumps First Presidential Pardon 26/11/20
"From the newsroom. At news dot com. Today you hi. I'm lexie kat. Right and i measured buck. Lows is the latest from the newsroom. It's thursday the twenty six th november. Already start in the. Us and donald trump has pod and his former national security adviser who pleaded guilty to lying to the fbi about his conversations with russia. Michael flynn was national security advisor for just twenty four days after mr trump took office in two thousand seventeen but he was sacked by the president. I made questions about his contacts with russia's ambassador to the us in light 2016 sixteen. Mr flynn subsequently pleaded guilty to line to the fbi about his contacts with the russian. Mr trump's move is expected to be the first in a series of presidential pardons which he's likely to make before he leaves office elsewhere and more than one point. seven million. Australians could be unemployed in twenty twenty one. What's the government's covid nineteen financial assistance. And that's according to frightening you modeling. The report from the australian housing and urban research institute says turtle unemployment could take fifteen point one percent next g under the most severe if three scenarios muddled even the mildest indicates more than one million or eight point. Seven percent will be left jobless or a bit more light how to now and a four year. Old boy has managed one hundred dollars worth of mcdonald's meals. He's mom's phone while she was in the show. little legend. yeah having watched his mom order. Take away food during the pandemic. The brave young kid used the voice request featured order faced even managing to confirm the address for delivery. Now food ordered was get this seeks. Promotional meals seeks happy meals. Special offer toys. Ten milkshakes ice mc sunday is just a normal thursday. Not you we'll take a break to entertain us and the royal family were reportedly informed of meghan macos miscarriage news in july and have been offering her support ever since. Just how much can you about. Meghan and harry's heartbreak has been the subject of debate among royal commentators following megan's personal sl in the new york times vanity fair's katie nicholl had decided. Well i understand. They've been very supportive of it. They were they were aware of what had happened. How he was in constant touch with This summer and you know they knew what they were going through. And as you send your introduction the not the first couple to go through this trauma and this heartache but certainly megan is the first royal to talk about it so publicly so graphically and so movingly and finishing in sport now and tributes have poured in for football legend diego maradona who died from a heart attack. I've not cristiano renaldo code maradonna a genius and an unparalleled magician. Lionel messi is that it was a very sad divergent tons and for football adding. He leaves us but does not leave because diego. He's eternal well that's from the newsroom. We'll have another update in the morning you. Headlines from news dot com.
Former PM Malcolm Turnbull Says Minister Involved In Historical Rape allegation Should Be Named 02/03/21
"From the newsroom. At news dot com today. You your buck la. And i'm lexie cotton and this is the latest from the newsroom. Meets tuesday the second of much prime minister malcolm. Turnbull has cold on the cabinet. Minister accused of ripe to stipe publicly. Who he is. The minister who is yet to be nine is accused of raping a woman in nineteen eighty-eight. She's since taken her are in life. Yes scott morrison told reporters yesterday that it's spoken to the minister in question absolutely denied the allegations. The minister has not yet been stood down his. What mr tembo had to say on the abc. I think for the sake of his colleagues the government everybody. He should front up and who it is to avenues and channel. Nine security guy was allegedly attacked yesterday by one of the leaders of an australian. Nair nazi groove. Yeah according to nine toma soul who leads the far right. National socialist network arrived at the melbourne office with an associate and demanded to say stuff from a current affair before story about his group was set to air. Now when mr soul was asked to leave he allegedly attacked a security guard. Who was later taken to hospital. Place are investigating the incident. I've essays now. In a co. in france has sentenced former president. Nicolas sarkozy to threes jail for trying to bribe a magistrate. The judge suspended two of the three es and said mr sarkozy could serve the remaining one under house arrest with an electronic tag. Mr sarkozy will face court again in just over a fortnight on separate charges. He stands accused of violating campaign finance regulations during his bid for reelection in twenty twelve which ended in fate. We'll be back in a moment. Alrighty to royal news and prince. Philip has been moved to a different hospital in london and is expected to stay there until at least end of this week. The joke is being treated for an infection and is also under observation for pre existing heart condition while the first days of prince harry and meghan macos tell into with oprah has been released harry batt being hounded by the press and speaks his mom. Diana have listen. I'm just really relieved here talking to you with my wife by my side because i can't begin to imagine what it must have been like for her going through this process by himself over years ago because it has been unbelievably tough for the two of us but at least we have each other. The interview is set to next week. Finishing the sport now in australian batsman david warner will make his cricketing return for new south wales in a one day game on thursday just a week. After the opener revealed the groin injury. He suffered last. November would continue to happy him for months. It's been included in the team. That will take on south australia in adelaide. Oh okay well. Let's hope he doesn't do any further damage. If you want to win some money have you say not cost of living survey and being the chance to win a share. Two thousand dollars. You can use dot com dot a u for slash win if episode of from the newsroom. We'll be back with an update in the update. From news dot com.
Full Circle Weekly News #212
"You're listening to full circle between news. These articles are compiled by eric. The unready and i'm your host maas bliss. This is episode to twelve covering twenty. One may twenty third thirtieth twenty twenty one eighty lennox. Mx addition twenty twenty one point zero five point two to his out containing selection of applications or creating and processing multimedia content the distribution is based on amac lyrics using the in repositories with improvements on the anti project in its own applications that make it easier. Configure and install software a lennox also use at the studio repositories with a collection of audio processing applications and additional packages of its own the distribution can function in live mode and is available for i three eighty six and x eighty six sixty four. The user environment is based on x f c e four with the open box window manager instead of x f. Wm package includes sound editors are ardo. Vs t harrison mixed bus blender three d design system view editors and lara open shot lives and tools for converting multimedia file formats hijack audio connection. Kit is offered for switching audio devices. Jack one slash q jack c. t. l. as used not check to slack kagins distribution supplied with a detailed seventy two page illustrated manual the minimalist audio player q. Em-empty one point five point zero as out. The collection of plug ins are not part of the main package has been updated. M people impact one point five point zero and testing of the queue. Meme p two point zero branch that has migrated to cuties. Six has begun the program as equipped with an interface based on the cutie library similar to win map. Xm ms and separates the connection of skins from data players human mmp is independent of g streamer and offered support for a variety of audio output systems to get the best sound experience. This includes os has four elsa pulse audio jack cute multimedia i cast wave out erect and was happy output. A project code is distributed under the dp. Lv to license a year development inks cape verdean. One point one must have released. The editor provides flexible drawing tools and provide support for reading and saving images of mpg. Open document drawing the ex f. w. m. f. e. m. f. s. k. One pdf eps her script and png formats. Anx pre builds. Her available for lennox macos and windows. Os gio live. Fourteen point zero distribution developed by the nonprofit organization s gio in order to provide an opportunity for quick acquaintance with various open geographic information systems without the need to install them the distribution is built on lube onto the size of the buddha images for point four gigabytes. Amd sixty four as well as an image for virtualization system for a box vm. Ware kvm et cetera. It includes about fifty open source applications for gio modeling. Spatial data management. Satellite imagery processing mapping spatial modeling and visualization. A quick step by step getting started guide is provided for each application. The kit also includes free maps and databases of geographic features. A graphical environment is based on the lx cute. Shell nf tables zero point nine point nine packet. Filter has been released. Which unifies the packet filtering interfaces for ip four p v. six arp and network bridging it aims to replace ip tables ip six table tables and eib tables at the same time. The release of the companion library live in fee l. One point two point zero as out which provide the low level. Api for interacting with the table subsystem that changes required for the nf tables zero point. Nine point nine release to worker included inland x five point. Thirteen dash rc. One colonel. The new approach taken allows users to significantly reduce the size of the filtering code working at the kernel level and move all the functions of parsing rules and logic for working with protocols into user space the developers of glimpse of fork of the game graphical editor founded by a group of activists who were dissatisfied with the negative associations that rose from the word gamp decided to stop development and move the repositories on. Get hub in the archive category. Currently the project no longer plans to release updates at has stopped accepting donations oracle in exact point four has been published based on red hat. Enterprise length eight point four. Earning on the x eighty six sixty four and arm sixty four a arch sixty four architectures unlimited and free access to the yum repository is open with binary updates of packages fixes for errors and security issues separately supported applications. Dri modules are also prepared for download it also features unbreakable enterprise. Kernel are six you too but is otherwise identical to rit l. Eight point four almo- mullenix eight point four synchronized with red hat. Enterprise lennox eight point. Four is out. The districts are prepared for the x eighty six sixty four architecture in the form of a beautiful minimal and full image in the near future arm architecture will be supported. The distributions considered ready for production deployments and is completely identical to rha l. ellen functionality. With the exception of changes related to rebranding and removal of our ag l. specific packages. It includes implementation of support for booting a new secure boot mode support for the open. Scap package creation The devel- repository had several new app streams modules and updates. The compilers almanacs is free for all categories of users developed with community involvement and using a management models similar to the organization of the fidora project antitax nineteen point four is released and i x four is lightweight desktop distribution that is completely system d free and has targeted variable hardware and systems. It uses his fee slash running it for service management tests and i x comes with four installer various full base coronet and gives you flexibility on install. You also get thirty two bit. Oh for very old systems. The us features links colonel four point nine point zero dash to sixty four fire fox. Seven eight point. Ten point zero are with see monkey browser added on the full and mesa editions. Other inclusions are lebron office. Seven point zero point. Four dash t to ice wm two point three point. Four the latest. Firmware back. Porch from debbie and sid and various upstream. Debbie and security upgrades case snip feature-packed cross platform screenshot tool that works with both x eleven and waylon has been updated version. One point nine point zero adding the ability to add user defined actions for taking screen shots and post processing daca bowl widgets and many other smaller new features and changes case. Nip is a free and open source. Cute he five screenshot tool that runs on. Excellent plasma wayland known wayland with this release. Xt g desktop. Puerto whalen windows and mac. Os material shall has been updated recently with gnome. Shell forty support. I knew overview as all his nudity k four settings material shell completely changes the conoco shell user interface to simplify navigation and reduce the need to manipulate windows in order to improve. Productivity among many features is a tiling engine that can automatically organize windows into multiple layouts including maximize flit simple half grid and ratio nitric one point. Four point one out with a new release for may twenty twenty one adding latest katie absent plasma desktop environment included a plasma five point. Twenty one point five k. The e gear twenty one point zero four one one as well as katie frameworks. Five point eighty two point zero. A katie plasma environment has been enriched with a new app plasma system monitor which replaces the old case guard system monitor app other new apps included update to parachute. He wrote games launcher for launching games on the epic game store and paxton command line utility. Help you install absent. Aren't available as deb. Packages one point four point one ships with lebron office seven point one three office suite missoula fire fox. Eight point zero point. One web browser escape one point. One vector graphics editor kate and live twenty one point zero four point one video editor and lennox karnal five point ten point thirty five. Lts as default kernel also supporting the five point four lts and five twelve colonel series team behind. kelly lennox has released Boxer a tool to help. Penetration testers use older applications. That don't work on modern operating systems apps that need to run an isolation and apps that are hard to package properly boxer packages apps in docker containers eight point three dash seven has offered for download built by rebuilding the source code of red hat. Enterprise length eight point three packages. The assemblies are prepared for x eighty six sixty four architecture and delivered in two versions full and compact system images for open stack. Docker have been prepared separately. Visi lennox is fully binary compatible with our h. e. l. and can be used transparently replace solutions based on our et l. Eight and sent us eight. Pray hunt opened the source code. Sirs verification of compromise passwords have. I been pawned however been pond dot com. It checks eleven point two billion accounts stolen through hacking five hundred. Thirty eight sites. Initially the intention open. The project code was announced in august last year at the process was delayed in the code was published only now. The service code is written in c. sharp and published under the best license. The project is planned to be though with the involvement as the community under the auspices of the nonprofit organization dot net foundation. You've been listening the whole circle. Weekly news find the site at full circle. Magazine dot org and me at bartik. Try it on twitter. As lead host tuxedo social mastodon on its smart dot com and at zaiwa on sponsors dot. Org if you'd like to buy a cup of coffee. I'll be back next week.
Expectations For Airlines As Earnings Take Off(Podcast)
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. And at bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well we had american airlines report numbers today smaller than expected loss cautiously optimistic about it continued recovery. Particularly in domestic. That's a little bit better than what we heard. From delta airlines and united. I think offered maybe a little bit more cautious here about the rebound in the airline business. Let's dig a little bit deeper in the airline business. We frank holmes ceo and chief investment officer of us global investors. Frank i know you have a lot of experience with all things aviation 'aeronautics you've got your etf jay Etf so a lot of experience. There what are you taking away here from what we've heard from some of the big. Us airlines well talk to you in new york is jets. Etf up the just football team. That's right and I think that big part is what happened last year in march the tsa started publishing daily. And you get on bloomberg as a nice functionality of how many people the tsa clear and prior to cove it it was two point seven million people a day two million people that they were just domestic travel seven hundred thousand work inbound from europe asia and latin america that number fell down to in april mid april last year down to less than ninety thousand people a day. Now what we've seen is a huge surge Over a million three million four a day now fly and as that daily published that longer stays up that number the faster the airlines can get to break. Even the business traveler is not going to come back in great numbers until the two most of the population vaccinated so the triangulation. Wanna take a look at it is what is the penetration of of a of the population vaccinated. Great scott confidence for travel. First big move has been tourist getting wait the airlines have. Reinvented where they fly to. Like san antonio to miami and i'm based in san antonio used to be nonstop every morning american airlines is not doing itself west the fort lauderdale. You're seeing all the reconfiguration of taking people From north to south the airlines have been able to move people for tourism business. Travelers gonna wait. It's probably i think is about sixty percent. Seventy percent of the people have had their second needle For the vaccine process right. I mean i love that you brought up the business travel. Correct me if i'm wrong but we think that the business travel is a higher profitable better margin traveler than the leisure traveler going on vacation. What does that mean then for the composition of the margin mix of the profitability for these airlines. They're looking to get back to being profitable explodes. Its massive and and the other big part that the real the win will be europe. Europe finally gets his act together and getting more people vaccinated and travel opens up over there. 'cause just as global airlines index Recalibrate mortar and thinking those with the strongest financial stocks. So i i think the the big opportunities will be business. Travel's more people vaccinate here in europe opens up this summer This'll this'll fasttrack. The profitability of the airlines from both business travel and international travel. The tickets are much more profitable across the pond. A travel francis or is there still a risk for some of these carriers here you know. They can't have stained profitability without their international travel without their business travel and again. We're seeing some pandemic numbers most notably today out of india. That are just really going the wrong way. Is there still that cloud hanging over whether these companies can survive particularly those with more leverage balance sheets. Well it's a great question. But i think what we've seen is the capital markets. I've been so fluid and and raising capital is been inexpensive. There's new mechanisms from An at the market mechanism. Atm they call it Ability to raise capital a we've seen price discovery explode in the past year with all the robinhood investors coming in and and that liquidity attracts other bigger fund managers and institutions. So i think the system is awash with capital. And i don't think it's it's it's easy to see how fast box or exploding and the capital markets are are two very exciting for investors and. I think we're going to continue to see more capital formation by these airlines. Be able to tap those council markets curveball here for going to go from jets into bitcoin. What pack are your clients asking you about bitcoin. And the shakeout below fifty five thousand well. I launched the first public company. The mind crypto currencies. It's called high blockchain technology and It it might be theory man. Bitcoin i get the bitcoin is going through a sort of normal big correction Think it's temporary. You're seeing more adoption. Pay pal then. Mo people can go on and buy a fraction of bitcoin. They don't have to worry about fifty five thousand dollar spending they can by five hundred thousand dollars And as you get more and more people at opting to this now thirty five million to forty million. They called wallets And you have a limited supply. Metcalfe's law suggests it goes to one hundred thousand. So i've always advocated a two percent waiting in that asset classes alternative asset classes. You can do it. Through the crypto mining companies. You do it directly. You can't buy stocks on your benmaller count. And you can't buy on pay pal but you can buy bitcoin. And and that is a more long-term long-term adoption frank holmes ceo chief investment officer for us global investors. Thank you so much for joining us today. Getting the report. Paul on jets airlines and bitcoin as queen base. It is three hundred level at three zero six. Yeah i know it's interesting. The volatility in bitcoin which is a driver of a coin base is with us in his franko suggesting maybe that's just a regular form of correction in that currency. So we'll have more coming up. This is bloomberg over the last year businesses have had to think about their digital commerce more than ever payments are an integral part of any business but too often they're thought of as a business necessity rather than a tool with which to unlock more value for that. You need checkout dot com check out dot com is a leading cloud based global payment solutions provider. Checkouts payment platform is purpose built with simplicity scale ability and speed in mind offering improved acceptance globally better and more actionable granular data. A flexible product structure. That merchants can adapt to their needs combined with truly personal white glove service. It's brands across the globe. Like pizza hut transfer. Wise klarna revolut and samsung trust. Checkout dot com request a free no commitment demo at checkout dot com slash business. That's checkout dot com slash business. Are we got the leading economic indicators point for the month of march came in it Where did it come in at one. Point three percent better than a one percent. Look so we had the the actual economic indicator increased one point. Three percent came in and won. Eleven point six. That's pretty good at follows. A one zero point one percent decrease in february so pretty strong numbers coming out of the month of march for the us economy. Let's dig down a little bit deeper. We will do that with altamont. Oslo trim senior director economics and global research chair at the conference board. So thanks so much for joining us once again. Pretty good numbers in march. Is that just kind of a catch up from what was a tough winter month in february. Good morning paul. Great to be here Yeah the leading indicators had quite a positive report this morning If february what slightly negative revised down a little bit so It was a rough sort of winter. in the beginning of the year So part of this catch but it really is also the continuation off the positive momentum that the leading index Had been building since you know. Say the middle of last year you know with the reopening of the economy And more good news is kind of Feeding into the economy And the leading indicators looking ahead now. I think what really stood out to me. Is that all ten components are contributed. -ly contributing positively. What are those ten components. What are you seeing. That is really leading this recovery. Yes so that is very good news indeed so all. Ten components are contributing positively. They are really kind of five areas. that are grouped together in the leading index And so those are labor markets manufacturing consumers outlook construction and financial indicators and all areas are flashing very positive So you in the program. You mentioned the unemployment insurance claims that is one of the components and it is continuing to drop And feeding into those positive contributions so good sign from labor markets and that really is kind of the beginning of a virtuous cycle that feeds on itself right and that's Manufacturing orders are rising supply. Managers are very positive about the outlook. Consumers outlook is also become a much more positive about The expectations And we would expect that to translate into more spending. Housing permits are increasing. After the bad winter months There's a pickup there. and financial indicators are also feeding positively in into the leading index out of an. It's kind of a weird paradox. That in the labor market you know we still have so many people unemployed much higher than we would like. Certainly economists would like yet what we hear from employers across the board is. They're having a very difficult time filling positions particularly on the lower end and they often cite the fact that it's tough to compete against some of the government fiscal stimulus in terms of a enhance unemployment. House that factoring into the economy is that a risk it all to the reopening of this economy So it it. It is one of the potential risks as the economy. Kind of momentum. there is Has been a lot of labor market disruption and You know it's not just in the macro top level numbers But when you look at the detail of the different sectors that laid off workers There's a lot of Variety across different sectors. That you know some continued along And some really shed a lot of workers which they're now trying to hire back And that sort of kind of perpetuates the disruption so that we've been seeing and that could The difficulty of finding and hiring workers could lead to wage pressures in different sectors differentially and Creates even more disruptions in a way it kind of trying to move workers from one sector to another is not that easy and you'd have to pay them even higher and And that's difficulty in hiring could continue and You know my colleagues at the conference board. have already started talking about labor shortages. Coming back this is not something that we saw over the last year and they may indeed come back earlier than we might have expected yet. It's a really interesting dynamic to what is improving labour-market autumn also drum. Thank you so much for joining us. Out of mine. Is the director of economic research and global research. Chair at the conference board again. The march leading economic indicator came in with a growth rate of one point three percent. The consensus was one percent so better than expected and his ottoman was mentioning. Kind of across the board improvements. Little catch up from the week when your minds but certainly a strong number know taylor back. In the day. I used to work at credit. Suisse was then known as credit. Suisse first boston. So i tend to follow the company for newsflow to see what's the latest there but boy they've been in the news but for all the wrong reasons. Let's get the latest on credit. Suisse we go to our ase banks analyst from bloomberg intelligence. That would be allison williams. She's been with bloomberg intelligence covering banks the beginning of bloomberg intelligence about twelve years ago before that she was at morgan. Stanley investment management investing in a lot of these big banks alison. Thanks for joining us. Here boy it just seems like credit. Suisse just goes from minefield to minefield and to step on these minds all the time. Give us the latest on. What's going on there. And how they're trying to get past it. I guess. I think that the latest today. A couple of key things first of all They did a convertible offering raising two billion of capital. I think that's i think that's a good step towards risk management right because even though they had the capital to absorb the loss. I think this will help. Steady the ship. It'll stop Questions swirling around their positions especially since we know that there's another Argos charge related coming next quarter. We know that there's probably a regulatory and legal out to calm so granted it is Dilutive to shareholders but But i think that It it it's smart from a risk management perspective and then much of the other changes are exactly what you'd expect. They're going to be pulling back within the prime brokerage unit Cutting that business by about a third they're going to be Polling which will result in paring down in the investment bank balance sheet By about ten percent There's obviously been changes in management for the prime brokerage unit. The advice and bank had the chief risk officer again These are all things you'd expect. They continue to do a review And they continue to make progress In the asset management business related to some of the green so issues alison big picture. It's interesting the timing. I'm in a class right now. Called managing financial risk where learning how to calculate var and expected shortfall. Lavar where were the risk parameters of credit suisse. That allowed this to happen. So i think the most important lesson on var which hopefully you're also learning is that it's a flawed measure and it's backwards so far is gonna look you know Pretty ugly for credit going forward. Although the interesting thing is that you know they this. This generally would be considered a contra revenue item because about because of the size of the item they booked at as a charge and as a provision of outside of their unit in contrast to more family that absorbed it within their revenue You know the the second part of it is you know to your point risk management and and in these divisions you know. There's there's generally all different types of tools by product by client by size of the exposure. And i think it's the size of the exposure versus the size of the unit That that really Was outside because if you think about you know credit suisse probably makes about a billion dollars a year for the last couple of years from prime brokerage. That's our estimate that five billion dollar Loss on this client. Morgan stanley You know is is is probably at least double that they've made forty billion over the last ten years and they had a one billion dollar loss in and they're much bigger in the business and then credit three so it signals that perhaps you know th this bank was taking outside risk. The question is you know where they where they taking outsize risks in terms of the you know the the exposure to this client just trying to get bigger in the business and then obviously there's As i'm sure you know and husband While discussed there were specific issues. A family office. The lack of transparency. Etcetera that were sort of unique to the situation allison again. I've got a lot of history with this firm and and it just seems like there's always some big big control issues. Some bad trades big bed investments charges. All over the place. when did. When does the board get held responsible. I mean blowing out your banking chief and you chief risk officer. Okay i get it. But when does the board take some responsibility here because it just seems systematical most of this firm. Well i you know. One of the reasons why credit suisse was able to offset. This loss was reduction in compensation. And you know one of the things that the bank did When they Had sort of flagged the initial or when they first size the four point four billion francs. Four point seven billion charge Turned out to be more but they went back and adjusted Executive compensation For the years prior. And that's and that's something. Also that that's i guess relatively new to the industry. But you know clawing back Compensation when when things like this happen. Yeah interesting just extraordinary to watch this happen. And again that two-billion-dollar convert offering perhaps strengthen that balance. Sheet allison williams. Thanks so much for joining us. We always appreciate getting your perspective on these big global investment banks alison leads are banks coverage for bloomberg intelligence. The research arm of bloomberg. And boy. Taylor just seems they can't get out of their own way sometimes. I just need her to do my our homework. Paul i need exactly yeah. I mean she's had a lot of experience again. You know investing in these bank. She knows all the management teams. She knows all the strategies. She knows where all the bodies are buried. And when you're looking at credit suisse again just so many things to be wary of if you are investing in that company but we'll have to see how plays out. This is bloomberg the only way we're going to get out of this. Pandemic is mass vaccination but the problem is many americans. Just don't trust vaccines skepticism. Didn't start with rollback. Seen or in march twenty twenty or even donald trump. This moment has been brewing for decades. I'm kristen be brown. The host of doubt a new series from bloomberg prognosis. In this podcast. We'll trace the rise vaccine skepticism in america to show how we got here. And where we're going doubt launches on march twenty third. Subscribe to prognosis today on apple podcasts. Spotify or wherever you get your time for bloomberg opinion today. We have carl smith bloomberg opinion columnist for bloomberg opinion. He's got a fascinating column here. Entitled repealing salt cap would be wrong. Move for democrats and then someone who lives in the metro new york area this high tax areas that cap on the state and local taxes really hit home. We follow the taxes. And it's not just the metro new york area. It's other high tax areas taylor where that was a big issue paul. It's the only thing we miss bill. Bond investors care about right now. It's the only reason we're doing this story. They knew i was going to be on radio. They push that miller out in berlin even knows what this is mean. Bond investors only care about this salt repeal if it gets repealed or not that cap deduction no. It's big it's big. It's something i bring up all the carl. Thanks so much for joining us here. I'd like to see the salt cap repealed. Why should democrats not pursue that well. So it's understandable. Why a lot of people in new york and california high cost areas Took a big bite on that. But we looked at the economics of the repeal It's it's putting It's pretty regressive. So i think there's been some analysis that like on net it's more regressive than the tax cuts and jobs act. Were that is more of the benefit from salt cap. Repeal would go to Fibers earners top. One percent of earners then went to that group during the tc je all together. So it's it's unusual for democrats and that's a little bit more skewed towards Higher earners than even sort of republican tax policy So that's why. I think it's kind of a kind of a bad fit for you. Know where democrats at least say. Their priorities are It also does take revenue and we're in a we're in a place now where you know don't spend a lot of money much of that was borrowed The president divide is indicated that he doesn't want to continue that he wants to fund most of the new initiatives and so that's gonna take revenue so if he wants to do the big things on infrastructure that's gonna take revenue salt caps with takes away from that. Few of those things can be done. And so it's kind of a policy that just doesn't fit with where the democrats wanna go and what. They say their priorities are. I also think that it's not really popular with A lot of republicans. Either so. it's coming to lose her on that side as well. y- call. I love that you bring up the fight between democrats and republicans really and maybe more importantly the fight within the democratic party. I mean think of the who say no way. This is a loophole for the rich. And then you have maybe more moderates. You're thinking chuck schumer saying we've really need this to be included. This repeal of we're gonna get through this broader tax plan. What are the conversations within the democratic party about how they're going to get this done or not. Is this all just cultural politics. So i think that one of the one of the things that made us really complicated is that during tc j. Republicans are looking for ways to fund the corporate tax cuts And something that economists really push for a long time is capping or get rid of getting rid of the state and local tax deduction We think that it's it. Basically subsidizes States that have high levels of taxation. And there's no particular reason to do that creates inefficiency but anyway republicans went towards that. But they had this problem in that it's a tax so how they justify this tax and Some of the president from allies got on the idea that we'll call it. The blue state tax increase emphasize. That only like blue states are gonna pay and in particular. They didn't get rid of the whole thing. The only captain ten because that was sort of maximized the damage to blue states. Well leaving some wealthy people in red states still able to deduct them that really big cultural issue. Yeah yeah call so that that kind of goes to where i wanted to go a lot of folks that are supporting the repealing. The salt cap said. Hey this was just a political dig. By president trump against those areas of the country that did not support him in the election. It had nothing to do with fair taxation or economics it was simply all political as a result. It deserves to be repealed. So it's become kind of it's more of a political issue than an economic issue if anything else is that how it's being played out in washington big part of it and i mean i think that's what's making making the split among democrats harder i mean I think among even sort of republican wonks democratic wants. They're kind of like both against The salt deduction but when trump's people came out and made it a cultural issue that made it hard for democrats to be in favor of capping salt especially democrats whose constituents run get hit by. And so you know it's it's a live issue. How precisely because trump made a cultural issue carleen throwing you a curveball here. But we know you're smart enough to handle it. And i've been studying a lot of the state local government budgets. I think of new york which after those tax increases you're looking at fifty five percent tax rate on some of the top earners than california and a lot of those budget assumptions. I think cuomo's assumes that the salt repeal indeed will go through. Are we getting into trouble when we're building budgets on a state level. That's based on something that's going to happen at the federal level that well. We're not quite sure that that's even going to happen. I mean i mean so. Obviously that's not. Why i mean not was from a budgetary standpoint It puts more pressure on representatives in new york. Since he's already said well. Look you know we're committed to this. We've already committed this. We're expecting you to come through. And so it makes sense as a political movement obviously You know it's a poor budgetary move and only makes things riskier for the state Going forward because I don't think that the salt cap is probably gonna get repealed so It'll be a big fight. But i think ultimately the it will be repealed. What's the sense of timing here. Carl about you know when we're gonna get some resolution here you know. I'm i'm not clear on that because You know so far. The president has said that he's he's not particularly interested in doing it. I know that's the position of the economist at the white house But schumer seems to be digging in on a pelosi is digging in on it and so It's really like a live ball right. I mean i. I would expect given the with his art at the president ultimately get his way on this if he sticks to what are the economists are telling him but because it has so much support among the democratic leadership. It's hard to say when things will really like Be resolved all right. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate that. Carl smith from bloomberg opinion. You can reach all you can read. All of carl's work and that of our good folks at bloomberg opinion at bloomberg dot com slash opinion. Lots of great work there as well as those debates in the afternoon. When i'm on tv we debate about if there's inflation or not. I think there is romain. Thinks that there's no inflation. I'm going to now start debating you on. Salt is a tax loophole. Is it not. i love it. Yeah i don't know. I don't know but it's certainly hit folks in the metro new york area. I think pretty hard And you know it's one of the incentives for living in this part of the countries you can get some tax relief on your state and local taxes. Which can be very high in certain jurisdictions around the country. And i guess what made it even worse as it was just a political game. Their political football in a lot of folks ended up paying the price just based upon where they live. But we'll certainly have more on that that'll be certainly a store that bloomberg news we'll be following going forward so we'll have more coming up. This is bloomberg markets. Thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter. At matt miller nineteen seventy-three false winnie. I'm on twitter at pt. Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us. Worldwide at bloombergradio joined blooberg lie for the bloomberg green summit on april twenty. Six twenty seven to hear from the honorable al gore climatologist dr michael e mann and global elected officials as. They discuss why they are committed to building a net zero economy also hear from national geographic explorers and executives from dow ariel investments and the us department of energy on what they're doing to enact lasting change register now at bloomberg dot com slash green summit radio using code summit twenty to watch sessions live or on demand.
Mac OS Ken: 05.28.2021
"This is mac os. Ken considering watches and wearables. China is still a giant bleeping mess and facebook. Ps researchers to agree with facebook. It's friday the twenty eighth of may twenty twenty one nine. Ken ray and this is news from west. Ken brought to you by yours. Truly and sponsored by head space. Meditation made simple get a free one-month trial at head space dot com slash mecca west. Can this show is also supported by people. Like you patrons through patriarch on find out more in that your support at patriot dot com slash mackel. Wes can remember when we used to debate whether tablets should be counted among traditional. Pc's for the purposes of figuring market share. Yeah it kind of feels like we have a similar conversation around wearable technology. I saw a couple of stories on wearables numbers yesterday. That seemed to be at ought read the fine print though and they are not both. Idc and counterpoint. Research seemed to see apple. Watch commending more market and the first quarter of twenty twenty one versus the same quarter a year earlier though you have to read deep into the. Id stuff to see it. A piece from macrumors covered the idc numbers scanning the firms chart idc. Apple's first first-quarter wearables market share at just under twenty nine percent. That is down from the just over thirty two percent it enjoyed in the first quarter of twenty twenty. Wow we did enjoy things in the first quarter of twenty twenty. Didn't we anyway a piece from. I'm more covered the counterpoint numbers which seemed to show something different. They didn't but they seem to. According to the thing years. According to i'm more apple took a thirty three point. Five percent share of q one up from thirty point three percent on the same quarter last year. See where i stumbled is on what they were counting. Idc was wearables while counterpoint was counting smartwatches specifically limit. The discussion to apple watch and the firms seem to agree. Apple watch grew its market share in the march quarter versus the same quarter a year earlier. According to idc apple started twenty twenty one the same way ended twenty twenty as the clear leader in the worldwide wearables market appetite for its smartwatches remain strong with the less expensive s. e. n. series three gaining further traction in the market while its ear where inclusive of airpods and beads showed sequential declines after reaching record levels in the fourth. Quarter of twenty twenty. Now it's not that people like the heroles less rather there's more stuff and the wearables category now a lot of it's less expensive than the kit offered by market leaders like apple and samsung. Put them all together. And what have you got. Shrinking market share for the biggest players and more wearable tech than ever before the macrumors report on. Idc's number indicates that sales of wearables rose thirty four point four percent in the first quarter companies shipped a total of one hundred four point six million units from january through march the first time companies have moved over one hundred million wearables in a march quarter. Of course apple doesn't break out. Watches versus airpods reporting its wearables home and accessories revenue frustratingly. Ide- see doesn't even guess on the watch specifically counterpoint. Sings a similar song. The id sees where entry level models are concerned where idc saw the less expensive s e series three gaining further traction the market. i'm more has counterpoint. Senior analyst su jong lim saying apple was able to further solidify its leadership position in the market by widening the portfolio from watch s e two series. Six at the right time and other masterful use of apple kit as attention. Grabber every tech side on thursday including seen that ran a piece about carmaker kia giving away apple watches to new car buyers. But it's only one model of car and it's only the first fifteen hundred of them on thursday. Seen that says kia announced more details on its twenty. Twenty two e. b. six first edition and these i fifteen hundred cars will come with an apple watch as a gift kia said the free smartwatch will help owners connect to the kea connect suite of services bundled with the electric vehicle. Really though i'm thinking the cost of fifteen hundred apple watches is cheap versus the amount of free press. Kia god forgiving away. Fifteen hundred apple watches. That's especially true when you consider their free with the purchase of a car installing updates for apple watch series three is about to get both more reliable and more cumbersome after ongoing reports of trouble. Updating the oldest model apple still sells nine to five. Mac says the company has a plan unparalled watch than updated with the latest version to buy os watch os. The peace says apple seems to have given up trying to force users to delete apps and media manually which almost never solves the problem reports. I saw said apple was suggesting people. Unparalleled update the screenshot. In portuguese mma nine to five mac reader on twitter reads less like a suggestion and more like a roadblock to install the wash s update. The message says unfair. Your apple watch and perret again in the apple. Watch app on your iphone. All of this has nine to five. Mac wondering whether watchos seven we'll be the end of the line for apple watch series. Three will likely find out at the w. w. keynote and a little over a week speaking of ww d. c. apple has tweaked its developers for him heading into the big virtual show depth and context to be the names of the improvement game according to macrumors operas adding the ability for developers to post comments directly on questions to help provide context for the answer the ability to subscribe to an rss feed for a specific tag the ability to see the description of attack so developers are better able to choose the appropriate one and more wwe dc. Twenty twenty one. The center on the seventh of june through the eleventh. The socially distanced show kicks off with an opening keynote on monday. The seventh at ten. Am pacific one pm eastern. Which is stickier ios or apples dealings with china. Apple's first icloud data center in mainland china goes online that was the headline for my download blog. Citing the local report from chinois. The peace says the data center built in cooperation with a state owned company. Fired up on tuesday. The twenty fifth of may basically if apple wanted to keep doing business in china that had to sign the deal and twenty seventeen that would see customer data collected on mainland china stored locally in accordance with chinese regulation. What could go wrong actually. Quite a bit the piece from the site. The conversation has a blood chilling story of a chinese hackathon back in two thousand nineteen apple patched an active exploit nio s that. The company said was narrowly focused on sites of interest to china's wieger community. The peace says it has since emerged that the vulnerability in question was discovered at china's principal hacking competition. The cop where a professional hacker won a prize for his work in uncovering it. The normal protocol would be to inform apple of the vulnerability but it's alleged that instead the breach was kept secret with the chinese government acquiring it to spy on the country's muslim minority. But you know this is different or something sort of along. The lines of a free apple watch with the purchase of a car. Incoming freshman at the university of nevada said to receive free ipads this fall below. Insider says the school has done a deal with apple for new students to get an ipad. Air a smart keyboard folio and an apple pencil as part of the school's digital wolfpack initiative. The top will also come with pages numbers and keynote preinstalled. While i might quibble over the use of the term free kind of groove on the hardware for everybody plan brian son. The ball president of the university of nevada reno was quoted in the piece. He is stoked to provide a common learning platform that delivers equal access to technology and digital tools to his students hardware as not all schools. Getting out of apple apple will provide training to students on using the products apps and coding through its apple professional learning program according to apple insider more news in a moment but first a word from head space. Meditation made simple. I tried a new walking meditation last night. Add some joy. It's called sure. I could have been listening to news. Podcast make my blood boil instead. My guide kelton walked through reflecting on people and things for which i'm grateful and yes that made me feel better. Well i've been using head space for months. And while i have enjoyed the walking meditations i seriously just last night found head space move. I am genuinely excited to try. Mindful cardio over the next few days. So how could. I have been using head space for months and just come across this feature. But that's just how expensive head space is and how many different. Mindfulness offerings head space. Has they make it easy for to build a life. Changing meditation practice with mindfulness. That works for you on your schedule. Anytime anywhere you deserve to feel happier and head space is meditation made simple. Go to head. Space dot com slash mac. Os can that's head space dot com slash. Macos ken for a free one month. Trial with access to head spaces full library of meditations for every situation. This is the best deal offered right now. Head to head space dot com slash mac. Os ken today. A frustrating day for icloud mail users actually wanting to use. I cloud mail on thursday friend of the show. Paul let me note that the service was down while i'm more told everybody else mile. Everybody who wasn't checking apple system status page check night. It looks like the service was slow or unavailable for five and a half hours six thirty. Am to noon on the west coast. Nine thirty in the morning until three in the afternoon back east. That's not a busy time per email. Is it nominations for shows already out teasing a title to come to tales of apple tv. Plus today i the malcolm observer says the cupertino streamers kid shows ghost writer and help stirs are both in the running for this year's daytime emmy awards just playing the numbers. Ghost has the best shot at an award. That's because it's been nominated for five to the one nomination for help stirs tm o. Has ghost rider up for outstanding. Sound mixing and editing for a drama or daytime fiction program outstanding art direction set direction scenic design for a drama or daytime fiction program outstanding hairstyling for a drama or daytime fiction program outstanding music direction and composition for a daytime program and outstanding lighting direction for a drama or daytime fiction program. These are the daytime emmys. Do we really have to say daytime for everything. I guess we do. The helps there's nomination as for outstanding costume design. Styling wait a minute. Is that the daytime. I'm not sure now. The two thousand twenty one daytime. Emmys will air on friday. The twenty fifth of june on cbs. I don't know whether that's daytime. Or nighttime i will tell you though. It's kind of a weird thing to think about airing and scheduled broadcasts. Apparently things they still do an apple tv plus show. That is definitely not for kids. That a new promo on thursday. I'm more says the cupertino streamer drop the trailer for the euro's burn dark. Comedy physical set against the aerobics craze of nineteen eighties. I sort of hate recapping trailers for a couple of reasons first. Spoilers and second they're short it would take like three minutes or less to watch the whole thing for yourself. Here's what i will say. It looks twisted. I think in good way apple. Tv plus is set to get physical on friday. The eighteenth of june between now and then you can watch the trailer on you too seriously. It's less than three minutes and finally today. Facebook has paid for an academic study. That he what are you know takes facebook side. On tracking transparency apple insider says the paper written by someone from the university of florida levin college of law. Someone from the harvard business school and paid for by facebook is called harm competition and consumers under the guise of protecting privacy. Quoting part of the paid for by facebook paper while thinly veiled is a privacy. Protecting measure apples. Ios fourteen policy changes harm the entire ad-supported ecosystem from developers to advertisers to end consumers by sharply limiting the ability of third party apps to create value through personalized advertising. Apple's policy changes undermine competition. Of course apple is not limiting that ability. They're just requiring apps and advertisers to get the user's permission the problem according to the people paid by facebook is that apple is too misleading and users are to gullible to you know decide for themselves quoting apple insider again the writers of this paper describe how about messaging allegedly uses stark biased and misleading term 's which diminished consumers abilities to make meaningful and informed choices about data use. You know if i were smarter. I think i might be insulted coming up in a few minutes. Remember when that show was in the test kitchen today. Parallel host shelley. Brisbane plays that age old game. Who would you invite to dinner. Entertaining conversation is on the menu at shelly. Brisbane's dinner patty. The show was called in a few minutes. Find it and listen wherever you find. Endless and to podcasts mac. Os can brought to you by me and sponsored by head space meditation made simple get a free one-month trial at head space dot com slash mac. Os cabin this show was also supported by people like you patrons through patriot on find out more in that your support that patron dot com slash west cab. Advertising handled by back the media online at backbeat media dot com. You can reach me. A couple of ways info at monaco west. Ken dot com or call. Seven one six seven eight zero four zero eight zero until next time. That is news from mack. Go west ken. I'm ken rave cia.
M.M.LaFleur CEO Sarah LaFleur: 'We have this opportunity to rewrite the rules' of workwear
"Thanks for tuning in to the glossy. Podcast i'm your host jill manaf and today i sit down with sarah floor founder and ceo of fashion brand m leflore which is best known for women's work. Where with working from home in sweatpants no less becoming the norm. I wanted to ask. Sarah how her business has been affected and what changes. She's made to set it up for future success. Welcome sarah thank you so much jill seventy to see you and i guess i need to. I need to point this out. You're wearing the cutest pig. Is that like. It's like a hoodie. Hoodie the new work. Where i door thank you so much. Are you wearing representing your brand or siam. Actually but it's funny because there was a time when we first started our company. When i legitimately wouldn't wear clothes on the weekends. Although monday through friday you know going to the office. I did and we entered into more casual clothing. I wanna say in two thousand seventeen. And now i can say. I'm not just saying this for reasons. I can actually province you that even on the weekends. Now i have madman so. This sweater called the butler top. Which is one of our most comfortable ones in the in three colors. I love it. Yes it does look work two weekend. Talk to you about evolution. Twenty seventeen is about when you start introducing the more casualwear. Yeah you know it's It actually it came came from our san francisco customers. Initially because we had gone we were kind of always strictly the what you know. It seems so outdated to now say this but like business casual zone a lot of dresses slacks and tops and then we entered into business formal. So that's where we introduce suiting. And i think that was in two thousand sixteen and then we had a bunch of customers. Actually in san francisco. san francisco. San francisco was our third biggest market. And they would come to a saying. Hey love your clothes. But like i need something slightly more dressed down and it's not like i can wear hoodies and jeans to work because what all the engineering browser wearing. And that's not my style. But if i dress up too much. It looks like i'm interviewing like. Can you help me. Strike the right town and flirt san francisco. We interviewed a bunch of women who worked in the tax base. And macos said she was like. I can do something stylish for you. It doesn't have to be like this and We came out with that collection which we call it. Was we define the category as power casual and we launched that in twenty seventeen and you know it was it was probably like a fifteen or twenty percent of our business going into twenty twenty but kovic hit and boom. it's like now fifty percent so i'm it. I'm grateful that we had that kind of lean into especially during meals turbulent time also because so many of us are working from home and then t shirts. We introduce t shirts actually april. We had planned to do that. You know regardless of covid. That also could not have come at a better time. So i think luck has really worked in our favor. Yes is a fifty percent. Is that about where you wanna stick moving forward. You're you're gonna be about fifty percent more casual wear and is work. Where even in the marketing. Yeah it's well. I think actually this power casual category is going to become work. Where for the majority of women and and so we have taken down for suiting significantly. I mean we had already done that for last summer. Last fall But you know it's interesting. Like i think what what we're seeing like. We we just just launching. This collection called mentally. I'm here. I think a lot of people could probably relate to that feeling which is like okay. It's like a year into cova ed. It's still not over. Were very much still at home but mentally. Gosh don't we. Don't you wish you were somewhere else. So this collection was actually if you can believe it's shot in hawaii not thing. Yeah not a single one of our employees able was able to travel for this. I have a photographer who their local team local model and we shops collection on a beach. It was. It's the most gorgeous photos you i've ever seen But it's interesting so much what we featured there is like a much more dress down luck but we have these beautiful jackets that we made with this manufacturer in japan. It's called. it's a company called the owner. Tomi and You know they've been around for decades and they just make the most beautiful woven jackets. It kind of looks like a buco jacket from chanel but it very much hasn't twist on. It has a ton of stretch. It's so comfortable. You can really imagine yourself wearing it for an entire day knocking stiffen it and we're introducing that impairing that back with leggings or like silk t shirts subpoena. Cotton casual talks And i think so a lot of what we're is. Hey like there's a lot of casual wear that you can incorporate now into your quote unquote workday But every now and then it's nice to pair it with something as beautiful as this only told me jacket just to give yourself like a tiny boost your wearing this beautiful pink top and i just think like it's candy. You know and like right now. There's so few things to enjoy in life like isn't that part of it. It's like putting on the bubble gum pink top in for color for sure. Are you doing more color are looking for sparking sparking joy. Things that sparked joys what i keep hearing a so true and which is so i mean. I'm hatching japanese. And so i like this. Idea of like minimalism. Sparking joy is also kind of like incongruent. I think they're in. that lies. The kind of power of kumari but color for sure. I mean right now i happen to be wearing a black and white blue clay knit but this collection lots of greens pinks And we've actually brought in like some earthy tones which will be introducing in in march. But it's like it's like deep breaths deep green Yeah vibrant like just like a lot more vibrant. I compared to when we first started when we had primarily charcoal navy. Black and cetera. Yes is there anything that you're phasing out for good permanently. I was looking at your last call section and i was wondering is that going to be all their dresses. It's so true. Dresses is just a much smaller. Part of our business than it was like three years ago three years ago when we started just to take a step back we started with seven dresses and dresses with the majority of our business. We didn't even have pants until two thousand sixteen. And i think now it's probably less than twenty percent of our business. I think there will always be a place for dresses especially around occasions summer. Gosh everyone loves a good summer dress. right there's there's something about dresses just being so easy but i think maybe there that's the operative word easy dresses. I think there will always be a place for and things that are more formal tight fitting pencil etcetera. I just don't think that's really going to be a big part of our future merchandise. Yes you mentioned your start. What was the business model at the beginning. Oh gosh there was a year of us operating a model that we called dressing room which was similar to accommodate. i mean. There's no comparison. Right economists downturn so so many phases but this is when you could pick four dresses that he could try for free for a week and then keep what you like and return what you like very long story short that was a turtle inventory disaster. It was You know we would have presses every now and then and then all dresses would be out of stock and then basically two weeks later we get like fifty to seventy five percent of the dresses back in stock by which point presses died off it was just it was so impossible to manage And then eventually we. I should say somewhat kind of I guess this is a lot of like being pushed into a corner without any options and then landing on this model which was called bento which was an integration on it but essentially what would happen was customers would come to our site. Fill out a brief survey based on that it was our stylists. Who would put together a box for you and send that that box out to the customer in that business actually took off like wildfire. I think we launched it in. I want to say the late twenty fourteen and you know our business. Gosh quadruple. Maybe in the first year and a may double the next year. I mean it was just kind of insane growth that we were seeing Around that business. And i think around twenty seventeen twenty eighteen I think two things happen one. Is that although we never considered it a subscription model you always had to order an additional box in we. We always kept the e commerce channel open and so customers can migrate into that channel. And that is what we saw a lot of customers doing. We just saw that section kind of die down and also go out of favor. And i think frankly we always felt like we were a little bit handicapped by because our products were never cheap. I i don't again. I have to qualify. Take our dresses. Run the gamut anywhere from one. Twenty five all the way up to three sixty five so Not luxury brand quality but definitely. Maybe it's not fast fashion. And i think that's where the subscription messaging which is so much tied to okay. This is kind of at maybe Less expensive kind of Cheaper items that you want to regularly access an roi items were not you know we we work with some of the best mills in italy germany japan and we take so much production and so there was. I think like a branding incongruity there that we were always struggling. With and ultimately we moved away from that model in twenty nineteen and really focused on just operating our stores operating are econ channel and that business had been doing really well of course until covert hit so struggling there for sure you talked about that great growth. I recall being being in the subway on the way to work seeing your your ads in the subway. What was working. What was working for marketing. What drove that growth. I mean so much of it truthfully was Facebook i think. Yeah i'm sure like a lot of of guests that you've had this spoken about this as well but there was definitely this arbitrage opportunity. That was that existed. I wanna see between the years of twenty fourteen. And i think by twenty seventeen. Most of the major players had entered into facebook in a big way so any arbitrage that was there definitely died out. But this is i. Think true of any marketing right. You're kind of always a small brand. You have so few competitive advantages over those big brands and the only thing you can do is kind of move to the next advertising channel where there where. It's not crowded where there's opportunity. I think we even saw that with direct mail. Two years ago right. Suddenly all the big brands were pulling out of direct mail. Direct mail became cheaper in the sense. That people weren't getting a lot of mail in anymore you could suddenly catcher a customer's attention so much longer and And so. I think we were always looking. We're always looking at the next Marketing channel. but i think that was a particular moment in our history where digital advertising with able to get so specific in who they marketed to and the big players have moved into that advertising space. Yes now what was that do that necessitate a lot of fundraising what's been your approach to fundraising. And what was it early on. you know. we haven't really talked about fundraising your time. Even though we have raised vc funding. I think part of that is. Because i i never wanted us to be known as a brand with x million raised it was a. I don't think it's as true today. But i think even five years ago there was definitely the excitement or badge of honor around. Like gosh. can you believe like x. Company raises x million at why valuation and in my head. I was just like oh you just like gave up companies like. I'm not quite sure why. This is cause for celebration. And of course the growth. that would come with. It is exciting but that in of itself is not the excitement like all the growth that hopefully you can achieve on the back of that. That's the excitement. And so i was just like this. Is this to me like the press. I wanna be getting. And so we've been really i think purposely on on the down low with any fundraising that we've done but i'm very happy to share that we have raised money. I've talked about just kind of like the difficulty of raising money for a woman's clothing brand as a female entrepreneur. I think it. I think the market has gotten if not easier just significantly more aware of the challenges. Gosh like trying to raise money in thousand thirteen. I mean it's like it would be probably like less painful to pick up a chopstick and stabbed into my eyeball. You know like guy. It was torture but yeah. We're super lucky. I like the investors that we have brought on board and partly. Because he didn't want to touch us you know initially with a ten foot pole and the funding only came on later in our growth curve We got to be a little bit more selective with who we wanted to bring on board and who we wanted around the table. And i really genuinely like my investors which i know is a is a luxury that not all entrepreneurs have so yes. That's great let's talk about that growth. Well first of all your the reliance on facebook or the usa facebook and instagram ads. Is that still in swing. And what else are you doing. It's not a we still use it. I think as a channel it it definitely still has its place. It's just were much more conservative. It and again like that arbitrage is totally gone so it really only functions as a touch point in the whole marketing gamut. I think now our spend is. Maybe i think at one point. It was probably the majority of our digital advertising. Spend and now i wanna say it's less than twenty percent but we've leaned into so many other channels including direct mail We've done some out of home advertising as you were talking about and then even just I mean every brand is doing this now but leaning more into influencers influencers is always been a little bit of a tricky one for us. Because i think When we tried influencers in kind of a very very early stages of influencers i remember seeing there were certain influencers where it looked like it worked like magic and we got we got our like five x our money back and then some and then with certain influencers who had a huge following it would just fall so flat. Actually i remember there. Was this one influence that we worked with. She had a much bigger following than anyone. We have worked with until that point we were like. Wow this is going to be amazing. And as soon as she posted her post with us there was like a whole site that was dedicated to critiquing each of her post. And all of these. I mean it was. It was like the meanest part of the internet but there were like this is so fake. Like there's no way that she actually wears an looks like she's not like a working woman blah blah blah. I mean of course. He's a working woman less influence. But exactly and it was just like wow like cash. The internet is so critical and sometimes also so right because that was a real lesson for me. I was like she was total. She was like not in our sweet spot at all. I shouldn't say she was a little bit off. She was like off by twenty degrees and it totally backfired. And so i think like one of our biggest lessons since then like it doesn't matter if they have a tiny following but if if they're in your sweet spot then you will. You will pick up customers from that. Tell me about stores. You mentioned stores. I know that you started kind of concept shop and mta go. Yes kind of versus the show remodel. What's happening in terms of stores that you have opened in out there well and we we talking about marketing and then to go which is this the whip best rank and put it as like aids a kiosk bet like showcases our best bestsellers and so usually we don't have more than i would say like our top twenty merchandise in there and it's i think the one we had in brookfield place which is in the financial district. I think that was like less than three hundred square feet in a tiny tiny footprint and then the one we had in union station in washington. Dc was about seven hundred square feet. But you know as you can see like pretty small square footage and these went gangbusters. We i think the one in union station. We made our money back in two weeks time and it was it was. It was so exciting. Because i think everyone was like who reveals. Debt retail's dead in like for a company was very much econ. I we were. We entered it really with a lot of trepidation and And this was. I think we i mean the as the real estate saying goes location. Location location union station was just basically a bunch of our customers waiting for their trains. Saying like okay. This is the brand i heard about. I've been wanting to visit. And oh my gosh here. I have like thirty minutes to kill before a catch my amtrak. Like lemme check it out and so yeah. We wanted to just Open ten more of those in twenty twenty which was not to be. But it's a it's what we think of as an advertising channel that pays for itself it's probably some of the best marketing and then also you know frankly the pr that we get around a store. Location opening Is that was also Significant to in meaningful so as soon as as cova lifts and people start leaving their homes. That's another channel. We want to lean back into in a big way nice. Will you have any specifics. Anything in a new way to approach it new lines in the contract what we do before going again as in the lease we do a long term lease. I see i see. Oh my gosh. I mean i hope that ten year leases are officially a thing of a pat thing of a bass because i remember when we signed our ten year lease for office. I was like our company. Hasn't even been around for ten years in here we are. You know it just seemed like we were we. Were just taking deal that we had no concept of and I think with stores to a landlords to their credit. I think are becoming much more aware and these short term leases with with an to go the first one we in brookefield place. We started out with a three month lease and it was going so successfully that we decided to extend it to. I think seven months. Ultimately i'm union station was also six six months but i think your yearlong two year long leases like that's actually the sweet spot for us where we can invest a little bit into the bax knowing that we're going to be there and then actually build a base acquire customers and then if we actually see that city turning into a bigger market opening a much bigger footprint Is something we want to do in new york in dc. Where we know we've all we have a good amount of brand awareness and and especially dc because right now like that's actually a city where people are out in about or have to be out and about because of all the government ongoing yes majority of your sales. Is it like way up there. In terms of what's happening online versus in store maybe eighty twenty. Or oh my gosh. Yeah no i mean. I wanna say e com is probably right now like ninety percent of our sales because yeah we have in terms of our in the remaining ten percent one is what we call While one is our dc store which is open but we have also virtual appointments which have also taken off in a big way under. Calvin one is actually here to stay. Yeah so that is like shopping. A little bit late shopping one of our show rooms. You get to work with a stylist but it's all virtual. It's all over zoom and you know it's funny. I think in some ways it is actually one of the most working women friendly channels like these women are so busy they don't have time and yet we were saying like okay we're gonna we're gonna make shopping so stress-free we only want to see you in our store or four times a year like it's going to be an hour you're gonna have a glass of It's going to be relaxing. But like let's get this done and over with and i think when we moved that conversation online like now we have you know. Mom's logging on after. They put their kids to bed or Working people who just now have an hour and their day where they can do something for themselves so that actually has been one of our fastest growing channels. And i think that one is very much here to stay postcode. Yeah that require. A lot of new hires was it. Just the in-store peeps moving online exactly in store moving out live. I mean it's like you know. Bless them they're just like naturals thinking. There's no awkwardness with them. On zoo they just have learned. They're wonderful they have. I think i think they've been pleasantly surprised by how much they're able to do online. Like as a stylus so much of it is being able see the clothes on the human body but doom can get past a lot of that and i think. Also there's something very personal about like welcoming people into your home and you get to see their life situation. They're like oh. I get it okay. You have a tight living space. You live in new york city. Gosh your closet. Size of most people's go door were right and so we need to. We need to have closed with high impact. Or oh again it. That your your mom you need have closed. That are machine washable. Only like all those stories. I think are coming through in zoom. That probably wouldn't come through if you were just in the store so Yeah in some ways. It's it's a much more Working person friendly Channel business channel. Yeah as the online channel became more competitive in the last year has become more competitive Anything else that was. I guess that you had to do to improve your side. You're yeah ensure that it's it can handle the new traffic or yeah any other updates. Yeah i mean. I think one of the things that were were most excited about is just saying is the new way to dress and we very much want to lead there I think for so long women have been told. Okay this is what professional work. Where looks like honestly. There is a huge riff off of mens-suiting right that that that was what women's work where it looked like. I think we have this opportunity to rewrite the rules in say like okay like women are juggling so much But they wanna feel good about themselves including the day like it brings joy. of course. There's a practical element to it but it brings joy and so what does that new dress cut. Look like and i think so. Much of what works. I did do is help. Define what that new look is like no comfort. I think is never going away. I think that's going to be at the base of of everything i mean. It always has been at the base of everything we but i think. That's always there practicality you know things being machine washable wrinkle resistant. I think that's gonna continue being important. And then i think this idea of like i come home and then i get out of my work clothes and get into my like whatever it is home. Close if you're gonna stay home or dress up clothes. If you're gonna go out. I think those boundaries are going to continue to disappear. Her and i think we were excited to do is to continue dressing. That woman who's going to be going everywhere in one one piece. So that's what we're most excited about. Yes tell me about this community that you have. I know that you have a slack community. I saw this on your instagram. It's amazing we've got eighteen. Hundred of our initially started off is very much like a vip slack channel. We've invited some work customers into it but now we have kind of our our best of customers on slack day in day out talking about the often about 'em close and especially around new collection drops. But they're talking about like their lives honestly and when this started because when covid first happened i think there was this moment where we're like. Who who am. I gonna talk to during the day. Like where's my work wife whereas my work husband and we kicked off the slack channel and the customer's just kind of took off and ran it on their own so you know when when there was There was some some of our customers got laid off In the initial wave of covid and we had other customers saying like well. Let's start a job posting site. And so they were sharing jobs with each other and yeah and and and there was always child. There's a slack channel called childcare tips. Where they're sharing what they're doing to take care of their kids and so yes. Of course you know we see each other. Let me see customers up selling products to each other from time to time and sometimes criticizing of course But i think what's been most exciting as like. It's been embraced as its own community. That is way beyond the clothing. We sell that's awesome. I was reading this morning about Which plays into this. I guess community that you are launching peer to peer resale. What's happening. Oh yeah yes. That's that's a lifelong. I should say lifelong company long dream of mine. I've always wanted to do that. I think resale. I think now is very hot but i think i always saw an like purpose in the in the league clothing world. Not just about like settling but then also showing women how to wear it like the styling piece of it and actually teaching women how to take care of their clothing. So a lot of what we've done like we've done collaborations with laundry as we say sell some of their products action on our site like you don't need to send kashmir into dry cleaning every time you can hand wash it at home. That's actually much better for your kashmir and that's actually much better for the environment and then i think the the final piece in clothing jury is retiring that piece. Like if you're not wearing it like give it to someone else who will weary and get so much joy out of it like and and so that was always always part of our ethos that we wanted to execute on but truthfully it wasn't until recently when the technology really caught up with a with a think this brand value that we've had that we've been able to lean into it So we we were launching it going to be called. Mfs second act is gonna launch in late february and it'll be a platform for customers to sell their their gently worn and man on their site and then hopefully make some money back on it. So like who doesn't love that that's awesome and so it wasn't maybe as daunting or as big a an undertaking as you would think it's more so about the technology and finding the right partner totally. Yeah i mean we actually believe it or not Some of our team members tried to launch this and then we were just The logistics of like. Oh my gosh so customers are going to send it in to dry clean in like you know god forbid like what if are their bedbugs like you know there was just like we were like this. Seems like a such such a nightmare. But i think this peer to peer space. That's really taken off. You know takes the burden off of us in terms of Understanding in measuring the impact of every single Garment while also giving customers an opportunity to like share with each other. What it is that they want to settle. And then make money off of it. And i think there is a level of trust in the community if you shop at amendment. I know we're in good company together. And so i think that level of trust is really going to add to customers willingness to resell and by from the site. Yeah that's awesome. Well that's one thing you're launching this year. Let's talk twenty twenty one first of all your ten years in. This is your ten year anniversary. Are you doing something like celebratory. God so funny. I mean it is ten years. It's actually so we say officially that our company launched in two thousand thirteen but it is very much ten years. Leon i mean Chief creative officer. My co-founder started working together. And i just wanna get her something special so one of the longest standing relationships that i've ever had you know like top co-founder relationships like this is like we're just so lucky. We've never kind of had the kind of drama that i know plagues a lot of course relationships. She's truly my best partner outside of my husband. So i think she and i are going to have to sell rated some meeting. We actually went to india and twenty nine thousand nine hundred and for a week just to like stimulate the senses and it was magical so god i mean i really i. I hope there's a trip in our future related. I love it. Talked to me about where you guys met and kind of what how you guys balance with her strength with your strength. We met through a headhunter which people are always shocked to learn because she is japanese. I'm japanese unlike. That just happens to be a total coincidence. We interviewed. I mean when it was first business. I knew nothing about fashion. So i was like have to work with a head hunter. Who ended up being my fairy godmother that he said i had actually already. I wanted to go already. Met someone else who i was. You know who. I thought i would go with and he said no. There's this other person. I want you to me like i was like no now. I'm i i've already had the already had this other person in mind. I think we're done here. And he was like no no no just meet her and i met her and he was totally right. I was just kind of hit it off in this way. That felt very natural and and i think in some ways. It's i think one of the reasons why it works so well is because our lanes are very clear. You know she very lustrous fashion background head designer at zach posen with jason room for a long time like she just. That's the world she operated in. I came from the world of spreadsheets and Numbers are still very much my happy place like i think. I'm a creative person at heart. The branding marketing stuff like that gets me so excited. I think maybe. That's where i come together and i think You know it's so funny. I think bianco brings her fashion sensibility. And i'm probably much more commercial in my taste. But i like to think that that plays an important role in branding to and so. I think we're the to kind of me too nicely that that's our that's our brand But yeah it's and she always has. Oh i know nothing about number. They know nothing about business but she's honestly one of the most business savvy person i've i've matt and i think that's why this partnership works down. We understand each other but like but we're totally prepared to kind of seed control when it comes to that person's expertise. Yeah it sound perfect. I love that numbers. Are you're happy. Let's talk number. Twenty twenty chilled. That was the most amazing segue. Gosh you must be a journalist. I'll take that chance. That i can get it but tell me about twenty twenty kind of maybe compared to projections. Were you wound up or just if you want to jump into twenty twenty one and your your goals for for the year ahead after twenty twenty was a bad ear for business and i have no problems sharing that i think how You know initially our business dropped about two thirds. It was scary and data. We slowly started to see it. Pick up especially. I think League fall in and we did. We did sales for the first time in really our brand history. You know up until that point we had only done sales. It was only once sometimes twice a year and it was to existing customers only and then we had to. I think for a long time. And i'm very anti sale. Because gosh if you train customers chop sale only like it's the end of your brand the eyes of debt so as like no sale no sale no sale and i think there came a point where it was. Just clear that. That's you know we we would never be able to compete and fake. The mentality is like survival. It's not it's not about like beating are twenty nineteen goals. It was just like how do we make sure that we as a brand continued to stay a relevant and continue to maintain the things that matter most to us so that when the economy comes back were able to take advantage of it. And i give so much credit to my team. I have to caveat all with. I had a baby last year and i took three months of maternity leave. And you know and you're like a my mom you know who's kind of like your. She's she's very much a professional woman she was like. I mean i'm sorry. I didn't know a ceo was allowed to take a maternity leave. And i was like well. Is you know so yes and you gotta love my mother but my ceo. Eric you know just like amazing. And he was so wonderful about it and just really took control At a time that was that was scary for for the business and so you know he. He released sailed the ship right. I think Were were in a good place. The it's always it's always. It's always hard. I mean i think about you know even where our business wasn't early. Twenty twenty where bef- right before covert hit. I'm like gosh. I miss those kinds of numbers but Were in an. I would say like a new normal. Our we found stability in the in the cova times. Yes this may. June of last year where we were like. Where's the bottom. That's a really scary place to be. Yeah and i think You know were were not betting on kind of our industry coming back to where it was until i until i would say like q. Three q. four of this year. And i'm gonna say q. Three and talking about september which is which seems to be the time that a lot of people are saying like okay. We will had our vaccines. We will be out in the world again. Maybe we will be seeing people again. You know yes please right. And so. I think that's what we've projected and i think just even some certainty around that has allowed us to better planner business. And i think i'm hoping that twenty twenty two will be the chance that we get to execute are twenty twenty twenty plan. You know i think both but twenty twenty Yeah i think. I think that's what we're betting on. His two thousand twenty two is the year where we get to do. Twenty twenty but right in a new way. It's not going to be like there's no return to normal just like the new way. Yes last question i have to ask. You mentioned a ten year on your office. are you going to the. Are you stuck in that. Tim lease such a good question. We're actually we're trying to figure that out as we speak. We're like i don't know like a lot of us. Are design and production teams. They have to meet face to face and so they do it very carefully. Everyone's masks all that. But a lot of us i think. Feel like okay. There's some work that actually can be done at home so like just five days in the office actually makes sense probably not. Yeah exactly. Like i mean i i think were rethinking. Everything i guess that's the way I would put it and then also realizing that. Like sometimes. When i still see me go and i still see Our design team from time to time and seem the magic. Second happen when you are together. I think we were just going to be much more purposeful about when we decided to come together and when we decide to work from home but that office you know i don't know to be seen it sounds about right same here. Yeah well thank you. Sarah. this is a great conversation. Thanks so much still always a pleasure. Thanks for listening to the glossy. Podcast our theme. Music is by otis mcdonald. Please hedge the review section on itunes or wherever you're listening to this podcast to give us a rating and tell us what you think.
Tum kho Jana. Surabhi Jain. IINK Podcasts. Episode 10
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Looking Forward For Verizon Business, What Comes Next (Podcast)
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. And at bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now i want to get over the maasim. He joins us right now. He's a senior vice president of global enterprise for verizon business and i guess maximum your focus here is on five g. to me. It's so fascinating not just because all the protesters around here are concerned. That you know bill gates's using the vaccines to inject us with five g chips but because it's gonna make a big business a lot more exciting and our personal lives also a little bit easier. How do you think the most important leaps ahead will be will be met by the five g technology that you're that you're spreading around at a good morning poland matt first of all. Thank you for having been today's Five g Will change the way we leave as as normal people and and as employees. And it's probably the first generation of Wireless services that will be more focused or would bring more value for the enterprise. The consumers By g combined with ex computing will allowed to define the business processes and the engagement model with the consumer. Just think of the smart that store Think of money. Fettering think of telehealth i think of education. How can use the pr to be more effective In the way you the people The art of the possible with five g is infinite and actually what we're doing is to explore use gays on five g. with our partners and we'd our customer almost every industry i might as well give us a sense of timing here. I see ads from you. Guys mateen your other competitor saying five g s year. I don't think it's here. Where are we in. The rollout gives us a sense of the timetable. on the the different flavors. Five g five g at the ban. Pride gop wideband Find cheese here Now in seventy one cities for the rizon and we have that fix a lot of access in twenty eight days What are we say by. Five g i now because refunding the business processes for enterprise it will take time. You will change the way they work. So that's why. I even if some years is will be this will be available in in in a few months some. We'll take a few quarters but the time is now to work in defined what technology could do and how technology could change the way corporate works. What about the safety of this. I mean i was joking a little bit at the top. But you've got a robert kennedy who the globe and mail called a superspreader of medical misinformation nonetheless is a big name and has warned about safety concerns around five g. Is there any that. We should take seriously listen. We had a discussion about Safety every time we launch a new generation of water services so we heard the same on three g. We heard the same for g and we heard we were hitting the same feigen. We'll hear the same on sixty the listen. They said the security is paramount for offset and And why list will just bring technology and value to the beings so no concerned about security must know when will i have to go out and buy a five g phone one. Should i do that well. You should do that now. had set on five phone of five are available today in the market and And we'll bring value. Think of the house but for example the ability to capture a your your health data and your personal data In in in the middle east second to share a base that with With your physician and the experts but also think of the ability to consume media content that We had the View afforded last super bowl where you could have three d. view multiple view on the same screen using five g. So if you wanna arthur. Having an experienced in sports event but also have the ability to you know be in the forefront on the use of technology for your personal house than right time now to buy if i j are you working on six g already mentioned is already in the cards a mainly so i i think the art of the possible for five g internet the thank. You will probably take several years before you fool. Explore at the value of five what i could bring to people and to enterprises so We for franz think into the next acknowledgee. But we're not really focused on deploying five g and bringing the value of five g to everyone massimo. Thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate it getting the update on all things on the telecom front with five gene particular massimo pacelle senior vice president of global enterprise for variety. Business five g. The it's funny the telecom companies. They've spent billions of dollars on the spectrum. They will spend billions of dollars more developing more the infrastructure and the technology to support that spectrum then presumably as they roll out services and so on we will be incentive to go out and buy new five g phones in one. So we'll see how that plays out over the next several months and years over the last year businesses have had to think about their digital commerce more than ever payments are an integral part of any business but too often they're thought of as a business necessity rather than a strategic tool with which to unlock more value for that. You need checkout dot com check out dot com a leading cloud based global payment solutions provider. Checkouts payment platform is purpose built with simplicity scale ability and speed in mind offering improved acceptance globally. Better more actionable. Granular data a flexible product structure. That merchants can adapt to their needs combined with truly personal white glove service. it's why brands across the globe. Pizza hut transfer wise klarna revolut and samsung trust. Checkout dot com request a free no commitment demo at checkout dot com slash business. That's checkout dot com slash business now to get into the impact of the pandemic and while the reopening on travel and ecommerce. Adobe does that with its adobe digital economy index and here to talk about. That is the director of adobe digital insides. Taylor schreiner taylor. What kind of action are you seeing right now. Are we looking at a a lift off so to speak in terms of the airlines. Broadly speaking matt our turnaround across the board. But we're not out of the word with yet. So for instance we are seeing that bookings are nearly double what they were before. People were starting to get back needed. People are showing strong interest in travel. But if you compare today's bookings to what we're seeing in march of twenty nineteen. Were still down. Twenty percent so while people are eager to travel and they have increasing confidence and travel We're not even back to nineteen levels quite yet. tell us about some of the regional differences. You may be seeing in your data matinee earlier. we're talking about how successful it seems. That big states like texas in florida have been reopening ahead of other parts of the region. Are you seeing regional differences in terms of travel. We've seen a really strong By sorts southern mid western states being willing to travel today but on the other hand if you look at the northeast Where there's been a low of reluctance to travel and they have sort of less travel Than you would expect on average for the us the they have a greater responsiveness to vaccines more vaccines out. The faster folks in the northeast are willing to travel either because they themselves are vaccinated or because they have greater faith in trouble With more people acted so. If that's the case. I would expect when more people go out when more people eat at restaurants or more people take flights and more people hit the shops. Fewer people are sitting at home still using amazon and other e commerce sites to get their goods. am i mistaken It's a fair assumption. But actually we've seen fifty percent growth year over year this last march so people are really still used to making their purchases online. And they're not telling us that they are showing any signs of going back to pure in-person retail world. they're absolutely going to restaurants. You can see travel increasing but we simultaneously see continued growth in basic things like grocery shopping online and well We expect that to continue. Frankly broadly speaking through the year about outside the. Us taylor go look at the uk or and matt's based in germany are we seeing similar trends as relates to e commerce. Well this is the first year that adobe has released our insights on the whole global digital economy the first report rather and frankly there's some really big numbers out there you know. Last year we saw about three point five trillion dollars in online commerce. And we're seeing that grow of the first quarter and thirty eight percent so we see incredibly strong global e commerce growth In fact we're predicting four point two trillion dollars In ecommerce over the course of the year which is bigger than than two major economies. You'll see and in europe. Yeah but i wonder how they compare to the us. I mean ecommerce in the us versus e commerce in the eu. Are they similar sizes or is the us far ahead of what we see here in old europe. Well you know. E commerce globally is really dominated by the united states and china in terms of where overall dollars are getting spent. The overall money is getting spent but to your point really see Strong growth in europe. Uk for instance saw sixty six percent growth in the first quarter so just stunning frankly levels of e commerce growth that are continuing in europe. And it's going to be different country by country with very payment systems and cultural differences but no globally. We see incredibly strong growth and the us is at the moment on par with the global growth But there are a lot of countries that are going to get into the space and start to grow rapidly. All right so tell it. You're based in the bay area. San francisco right lucky. That's great all right. Give us a sense of how how that area kind of reopening here. What's the feeling there again. We think about the northeast. Maybe being a little bit more conservative. Texas and florida very aggressive in the reopening. What's it like where you are in california Well i can just speak for my area. You know you still see a lot of math. You still see a dearth of public transit but people are out I went to newseum This last weekend and went over to see friends to the street level. Commerce is definitely growing and people are thinking of travelling booking to travel You know one things. We saw him to travel staff. Is that people are booking thanksgiving and christmas now. That's the one area where bookings are above twenty thousand nine levels and you know just anecdotally in my area. That's that's what we see is that people are eager to travel and see friends and they're they're confident that by the fall. That will be possible interesting. I'd like to get out there. Yeah it's beautiful out there. West coast is where it's at man. I totally taylor. Thanks so much for joining us taylor schreiner. He's a director of a adobe digital insights thereafter digital economy index. Showing some good growth matt from you kinda pre vaccine timeframe in this pandemic but still below fifteen to twenty percent. And you're looking at Airline flights and hotel still below twenty percent from twenty one thousand nine levels but it but in commerce they point out that the e commerce in march of this year broke records adding almost another black friday in online spending. So it's been huge. Yeah it's been huge and know you talk to the retail folks. And they don't see that going back the market share that ecommerce has. It's here to stay busy week this week for earnings so busy week for economic data just today we had really strong consumer sentiment numbers. Come out and that's good news. Tomorrow we have the fed minutes in the press conference thursday. We get gdp report for the first quarter lots to dig into. We're fortunate to have marcus. A- schommer chief economist pineridge investments. Joining us marcus. I love the star with that. Gdp print that. We're going to see thursday. What do you expect to see. It should be a phenomenal number and then also for the next quarter as well. How are you thinking about that. Oh yeah the the numbers look really good for the for the entire summer The gdp number we'll be somewhere North of six percent probably We still don't know some of the some of them are variable. Parts trading inventories could be a little bit more negative but We know that consumer spending for example is on track for a nine percent quarter. I mean the number and it's likely with the with the the checks not fully distributed into first quarter at some of that is spilling into q. Two as well numbers of probably gonna stay like that through the summer. So we get consumer spending. We'll get personal spending and income on friday as well right and a lot of people have been talking about. The savings rate was so strong. And there's so much extra at least in the top cash to throw out into the system. Is that going to happen. Do you expect a dam. Break in terms of spending Well be we've seen it already. Had a super strong retail sales number in january and the only reason she wanted to actually because we this really visibly cold february which depressed everything and people couldn't go out and spend it and in parched. I came back and with another check in their pocket went out on a spending spree again. And then i assumed i'm the april and may retail sales. Numbers will look really good as well. Because you're right. It's just a check itself. But it's also the money that's been accumulating over the last litter with the last twelve months as people couldn't go on vacation couldn't couldn't go into the stores and that has built up the savings rate. It's not really that people were saving. There's just couldn't spend as a slightly different a different way of thinking about it. But some of that money bill seep into the economy over the next couple of months and i think that's why. Gdp will remain strong and q two and promptly spitting q. We as well question is what happens after that. Yeah that's kind of where i wanted to go here. I mean we're seeing kind of a wide range of gdp forecasts out there on the street for twenty twenty one. What's your call for the year. Twenty twenty one and then maybe also for next year as well For this year we are around six percent and next to you. Slow down back to something around three and a half percents the consensus. Next year. i think the near-term story is fairly clear and a stimulus pushes so strong. That is probably not a lot of disagreement where we where we are right now but the disagreement interesting where we will be a year from now because we'd see more risks arising sort of on the horizon the pandemic is not over yet in the world. We won't see really of a resumption of global growth for a while The fattest given up on the bond market and allowing you to rise and that takes away from the stimulus fiscal policies talking about tax hikes and not just spending increases all the time and then we up some political bruce coming with the midterms next year. We have maybe another spending package coming soon. From the biden administration. How important is it. do we need it no. We did beneath the last one. I mean way about what necessarily close to the output gap was so in such undiscovered country. By now it'd be happier. Nobody with the side effects of all this will be for example at some stage when there will be mixed will. There won't be those spending packages there will be a huge decline in the way fiscal policy is boosting gdp growth but could which could actually lead to much much lower that everybody's expecting because the economy's weak but because the comparison from the stimulus fuelled twenty twenty one to the maybe less stimulus fuelled twenty twenty two and certainly the republicans win the midterms. There will be no stimulus and twenty twenty three that change from twenty to twenty three could be rather abrupt and could cause a lot of micro ability and also some confusion. Some people may feel the economies already to week recession. Talk me start again all this all this excess that we're seeing right now is creating a lot of volatility in democra- numbers but also it will create volatility in the expectations for the future. Okay marcus i looked at just switch gears a little bit and talk about europe. We're we're matt is based in germany. Much tougher vaccine metrics there much perhaps not the stimulus having the same impact. It's having here in the us. What's your view of europe in the economic recovery. There well i mean right. The hearns situation that does not look good. And you know if you look at the indices there beautiful track. The difference between the us where services are surging now and europe with services of stall. Uk's of in the middle you could see once you start vaccinating enough of your population. You can start to reopen and services. Come back into seem with if they already a back in the us. The vaccinations picking up in europe as well. Exploding right now supplies exploding so giving give them another month. Give him another six weeks and they will be on the same track that we are on. So it's just a bit of a delay issue in europe. My mind is more There's there's a very different ways of of Policy stimulus they don't have to checks. They don't have the big packages and They have a lot of political groups coming up in the next couple of months. We have elections in germany and The that is very unclear and then something is being barred about. Four years is in in april of next twelve months from now. We have elections in france and data could be that could be a real nail biter if if the right wing candidate could give current president macron around prize money. Marcus where whereas always kirchen is a close to cologne so Maybe i should have western part of germany. I'm just stalking marcus here. On the bloomberg. He's sitting in berlin. And i'm a big germanic but i'd say is hurt. The lack vaccines here has hurt. Me and i will be interested to see if there's any scarring from that economically and also to see what happens if the greens actually take the cake in september. Because they've really run up in the polls even ahead of the cd. Ucs you in our latest aggregate poll which is totally shocking. We gotta get you back on mark as it was a pleasure talking to you. Thanks for spending some time with us. Markets schommer is chief economist at pine bridge investments. And it was great to hear from someone who isn't just. You know your typical red blooded american someone who has a little bit more interest in what's going on here in germany. This is bloomberg time to check in with bloomberg opinion. We're joined by opinion columnist mark gilbert. Who's talking about the many reasons. Bankers love hedge funds mark. I guess the the main reason is the main reasons are you know millions or billions of dollars and fees right money. It's all about money. It's all about the greenback's edge crumbs need to services. If the investment plans can provide they need to lend the money into so they can make leverage their pets. They need to borrow stocks off the when they shot in the market. There's a lot of specialist. I'm is that the investment banks provided hedge fund community on the money for all right mark full disclosure. I used to work at credit. Suisse back on us credit suisse first boston and i know what a huge business their prime brokerage businesses for them as it is for other leading wall street firms so was interested to see the credit suisse trimming its prime brokers exposure. Here post arcos to me. This just feels like a knee jerk reaction. They're going to be back at some point not in the not too distant future. What do you make of. What's going on at credit suisse. Well lipset that they're going to change by thirty five billion dollars which is about so that shows you. They've got hundred billion dollars out there to the hedge from community there they're five and prime brokerage fan but you're probably right. You know once once they get over the shock of losing this much money. They'll probably be back into that business because it's so lucrative to so much money to be made in it. Last year the revenue you could lake for providing any substance patch and family offices was moved with thirty billion dollars. It's grown at an average rates of about eight percents year since twenty fifteen and given how hard it is to generate alpha given how hard is for its from to generate the returns. They promised their investors in the current environments their demand for leverage is only going to increase so the money you can make from those services as an investment bank is only going ahead no yes argos and greenville right. They had a double whammy. And i'm wondering if hedge funds out there you know if you're a woman or or a dude who has a big risky trade and you need a prime brokerage services. You might not pick up the phone and call credit suisse. Right they might find it difficult to get that business back well to be honest. Talk to market is dominated by prefabs. Goldman sachs morgan. Stanley and j. p. morgan on if you're a hedge from the especially if you're a big edge from you probably have between three and five prime brokers use for your business you want to spread the risks around yourself as a hedge fund so the risks are not just one way plus you need them to be able to find the stocks to lend to you when you wanna go show On a position so the headstones themselves probably use a rough stor Game that the advantage that they're seeking by doing these kinds of trades by doing these leverage trades in the market. So it's interesting that fifty percent market share from three companies is just extraordinary so do even split size. Investment banks do. They even have prime brokerage businesses. When i think about maybe an rb for example high-quality kind of mid tier bank as a low invoking in the prime brokers business. I mean wells. Fog always is in the in the top. Ten citigroup's in the top. Ten bank of america's in the top ten There's there's a lotta to be had from from. What is a very large table and again just to repeat trae. Suites one hundred billion dollars of exposure till they said the street Which is you know that shows you how important it is to to be investment banks as a whole. I'm not eight percent growth. In revenue per year. Not many businesses thoughts steady growth announce barbosa kids. But also nobody wants to get burned again Like credit suisse did. And i'm guessing they're turning up there. Kind of risk of versity across the board. Is that naive of me. Mark or or are they gonna get more risk averse. You gotta take the risk to be able to do the business but the big banks should be in business. I've mentioned those risks adequately now there's been a winnowing over the past few years anyway more businesses flowing the bigger firms because a lot of the technology is down to the software that you have a lot of it is down to your your ability to measure the risks across your own the exposure that you have to the heads from the family office community. That's why the big banks have half of the market. They just not much better at assessing these that much better keeping track of what those exposures alike And funky that probably got much better squeezing the extra revenue out of the business that can find the kind of backoffice technology they need to be able to service these clients safely. I mean let's not forget goldman out completely unscathed -pletely unscathed and that's hoping to three in the risk management business. So yes you. They're all gonna be increased risks and take it on these kinds of traits but that should be the job of an investment banks and manage those risks to make sure it's been adequately compensates it because there is no such thing as about this because only compensation i'm bob measurements. Risk is policy. The business of being an investment bank risk is partly were hedge homes have made their money from being able to assess those risks is the core of a business Yes this is a wake up call but it's not gonna produce. I don't think any pulling back from the most the investment banking community. They will reassess risks. They will probably wanna ruin the realit- more family over the edge from community and the traits that they're doing but at the end of the day that's how you make money in this business mark. Is there something just an hair in the structure of credit suisse that they just are not good risk managers because it seems they are much more in the news than their peers. I'm talking over a ten or twenty year period. I think as we back his co. Skeletons it's kobe. Don't bank assad several of these blowups. Ubs reveals that they lost almost of dollars on on the on the biggest blow up so they're always going to be postles. They're always going to be sort of known. Knowns i dunno those the trick is how you react to them and the businesses how you respond to your own risk profile going forward and how you assess the to make sure your adequately compensated for the chaves that you on your book mark so much for that kind of goes to that risk adjusted return. Matt you know you got to. Is marcus suggesting yeah. I just wanted to say. Thanks as well to mark gilbert there by the way you can check out his piece and the work of his colleagues as well. If you have a bloomberg in front you just type o p i go on the web you can type bloomberg dot com slash opinion knee also has its own ticker as we have mentioned this east and gilbert gabbert for all of my ticket. Do you have your own tournament for a brief moment. If you typed in my number my name sorry you would get all the charts so you would hashtag btv go but someone intelligently removed from the terminal thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews an apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller is on twitter at matt miller nineteen seventy-three fall swinney. I'm on twitter at. Pt sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us. Worldwide at bloomberg radio join us on may fourth for a virtual event designed to provide private investors family offices and financial advisers actionable intelligence from coin base betterment mto private wealth delphi digital nationwide financial. And many more. They'll shed light on the most vexing questions and surprising. Opportunity is facing wealth management in a post pandemic world founding sponsor b. and y. mellon wealth management presenting sponsor. Gray scale investments registered bloomberglive.com slash wealth slash radio.
Nasdaq's Dillard: The SPACs, IPO Pipeline Remains Strong
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. At bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I wanna get to a nasdaq guest. Lauren dillard joins us now. She's head of intelligence investment. Intelligence at at nasdaq where she's an executive vice president and learn. You've got a lot of great experience including working at the carlisle group. But you know the the nasdaq named jumped out at me today. Because the rotation that we've been seeing lately and then the huge jump today. Do you have any thoughts on value. Versus growth nasdaq versus dow tech versus old economy. Well first of all thank you for having me. And i am time you there and they joined hundred at the end of last year. So let's make sure we speak to that i Look i think a couple of things What you're certainly seeing our investors expressing you know concerns around rates Frankly some uncertainty and moving maybe into more cyclical sectors that. Were out of favor if you look back to march of last year The nasdaq composite has almost doubled so That was certainly an expression of a belief in what we would call the digital economy. That people certainly believe in nasdaq. One hundred represents We billion of influence. But i think what you're seeing now is is broadening expression with some of the uncertainty. That's going on so one of the things we've really seen over the last twelve months. It's really been fascinating has been the really the surge in specs. They started out with a trickle and we seem specs over the years. But it's been really a small part of the market. it's just exploded over the last twelve months. What do you make at it from your perspective at the nasdaq. You're exactly right. I think in two thousand fourteen. We have to start that they accounted for about three percent of the deals and year to date and twenty twenty one we have welcomed one hundred and forty six the so It's definitely a you know a significant way that people are accessing the public markets. I mean as the market provider. I think we saw several years and the states back. Of course to my time at the curl over where companies were staying private longer They were in the hands of private investors and that was certainly a trend. We were seeing. Now you're seeing companies accessing the public markets whether it's the ipo's whether it's the direct listings. And then of course back. I think of course there's an important sort of education Market understanding Underpinning that that is there but I i actually believe if you think about value creation For companies that accessing the public market and allowing companies to be in the hands of investors during more of valuation is is a long term thing. Now i think it's theoretically to me. It's so cool because it's like the democratization of earlier stage investing or someone called it a poor man's pe. I'm not going to be able to get into a private equity deal and not a sophisticated investors. So i think it'd be sweet to take a shot at a couple of hundred dollars of spac. The thing is it's it's gone beyond haywire at this point i mean there's a company called just another acquisition core the the number that you named already laura. Lauren are huge and you know. Cca iv for example trading. It like seventy dollars for awhile and then drop like sixty percent of the deal was announced with lucid. Isn't this a problem for retail investors mean. Aren't they getting in a little too. Deep i mean i think it goes back to market education. It will be interesting to see what are regulators decide to look at their obviously looking at some of the trends going on with lit markets With intelligent ticks. If you wanna get into some of the market structure so you know the regulators will have to decide where to look again I think you're probably right. There's a fine line between accessing the market. Which is good thing. I mean our whole belief at nasdaq is champion. Inclusive growth and prosperity so it aligns with market access and it aligns with getting valuation into the hands of investors but They are they are riskier and people have to understand their right lauren. What's the outlook for appeals. In two thousand twenty one. It looks like the stock market's ademir all-time highs seems we have an economy. Reopening seems like conditions. Look pretty good. Yeah the the pipeline is incredibly strong and already frankly has we've seen more companies I think it's one hundred forty eight. And i'm quoting that number Access actually the public the public markets year to date. So it's we've already are seen that i think that's a good thing again going back to investors And and certainly would argue. The window is open and we still have a strong pipeline. Just want to quickly ask you about trading what are what are your thoughts on the whole pay for order flow situations. We're talking about this already. Might as well get get into it. Your market provider this touches. Obviously everything that you do does does that worry you or do you think we're going to be able to find a decent solution to it. So i mean as a capital markets operator. We believe obviously and spare open markets and all market participants. So we have been saying that. The rise of the retail investor participating in our markets is is a good thing and it certainly reflected in In the numbers we've seen and frankly in time if you look back from a year from now the volumes of that have that have trained acted on the market between equities and options extraordinary and we as a market provider are very frankly proud about resiliency. I'm something we've invested in as you look forward for retail retail trading and the discussion about the the scc and finra are looking at. You know we've engaged with our regulators for close to two decades on you know very arguably esoteric but really important market structure concepts having market having price discovery We're obviously subject to regulatory oversight Intelligent text you heard in the sec. Just discussions around tick sizes and and all of that is with with the lens of making you know price discovery. Financial markets serve all investors including retail investors so without getting into the nuances of payment. I think broadly speaking we. As a capital markets provider want there to be fair and transparent markets we would like these investors stay in the market long-term. I think that's very important. Us halo aren't thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate it. We always like speaking to smart people that come out of the mob and school of business at the university of richmond my alumni. I'm an alumnus there. So it's great to speak with you. Laura z ep. Head of investment intelligence at the nasdaq private school allowed group wool title. What a cool. I mean there's an awesome title led to have but also what a cool career i mean. She managed more than thirty billion dollars in assets across six international offices at the carlisle group. Which is already an incredible name and then moving onto nasdaq which is kind of the you know the the modern story of equity markets. I mean the old stuff is like old and you know. I was talking about the dow jones industrial index earlier. The kids don't even don't even talk about john farrell. Yeah you can't talk about you can't quote. The dow jones industrials to john gets all upset. So we'll have more coming up. This is bloomberg right. Matt miller let me tell you one of my bucket list items. You probably wouldn't guess that is to take a trip. One of those big ocean going cargo ships in the wants to see out there on the issue with the container ships stacked twenty high. I have no idea how those things flow how they don't tip over how the cargo doesn't fall into the sea but maybe our next guests can help me hitch a ride there gary vogel. Ceo director of eagle bulk shipping their base at stanford connecticut boy. It's a public company. Trades on the nasdaq under the symbol e l. e. stocks had a great run as economy. Start to open up. Eighty six percent year to date up one hundred and eleven percent over the trailing twelve months. Gary thanks so much for joining us here. Boy when we talk to you. Gary we get a great great bird's eye view of the global economy. What can you tell us about global shipping. And what that's what that's telling you about the the global reopening. Yeah well as you said. It's it's really is about this This reopening twenty twenty was severely impacted. It was a tale of two halves. The first half of the year a real A real demand shock Dry bulk is highly correlated to global gdp. We actually don't carry containers are ships. Carry bulk cargoes commodities such grain mineral cement and fertilizer. But but really you know building building products if you will for the global economy and so but what we've seen is by the fourth quarter A real return in many many of our commodities to pre covid levels and That's that's also continued to into the first quarter and that's also on the back of what's been fairly muted supply growth as well on terms of ships so but these are ships. I mean you send them a long way right. They go all the way around the world not just like from charlotte to. I don't know jersey right absolutely no ever have stowaways or is there a way for paul to just buy a ticket and take a ride from like the horn of africa to australia is. That is that a possibility. Well we we. We take passengers There on occasion there are issues with stowaways but but the industry deals with that. But we don't take passengers on puerto ships. Now sorry about that. Gary one of the things we've seen and again. I'm really fascinated by the global shipping business in the big ships that you guys operate. But i've seen you know a lot of stories over the past a month or two about ships having a hard time unloading their goods in various ports around the world perhaps due in part to you know that just aren't enough workers there maybe due to cova to unload things and low things and what are you finding in that regard. Yeah i think what you're speaking to again is is The headlines been about the container industry and significant congestion. You know fortunately dry bulk we go to different terminals and notwithstanding certain areas of congestion in general the trade flows have been fairly normal. And so we've been able to to meet. Demand increased demand and and and get cargoes on and off ships now with the exception really of the second quarter into the third quarter of last year as as countries you know send people home to stop the spread of covid nineteen but we're really operating quite efficiently. Now you know one of the one of the challenges last year. Which if i can take a moment was the humanitarian crisis of trying to repatriate our seafarers our crew on board the ship who typically work about six months and as countries enacted these trade travel restrictions. Excuse me She's these people were unable to get home. And there's been a real push within the industry. We were fortunately able to you know Return to normal by by november and the industry is focused on now to ensure. That doesn't happen again. But that was probably the biggest challenge. We faced as an industry last year terrifying. Actually there's a bloomberg businessweek story about not shipping employees but crews employees that faced really traumatic conditions. Glad that's over for for your people. Gary and that the that the industry is seems so healthy right now. I wonder what the biggest concern going for. What what are the headwinds so to speak. There's literally no pun intended but is fueling an issue is the greening of the earth. A problem or is the way you can. Is there a good way. You can work with that. Yes so a few things to unpack. Their one is You know the the the you know challenge for for shipping rates. Historically has been an oversupply of tonnage. I mean fact. Tribal demand has grown in eighteen of the last twenty years. The two hours being the financial crisis last year covert. So we haven't had a demand issue. It's really as i mentioned linked to global gdp growth so supply. We've had an oversupply but at the moment supply of ships has actually had a twenty five year low at just six percent of the of the on the water fleet. So i think that bodes very well as you have you know demand. Gdp growth coming back with a limited amount of ships supply. Coming in. and you mentioned the greening you know. Emissions reduction and decarbonisation is on the forefront of all the discussions within shipping and and. Dry bulk is no exception. And and as we are looking towards zero emission vessels to get to the i. m. o. targets of a reduction of fifty percent by twenty fifty and so because of that uncertainty about what future regulations will mean is also a you know a a reduction of ordering because of that uncertainty. Right it's it's an impediment ordering because you simply don't know how long the vessel you order. Today will actually be allowed to trade due to emissions regulations all right. It's really interesting and we could do. That's another thing we could do a whole show on right now so go. I talked to a lot of up here. Well up in copenhagen and he talks a lot about the fuel issue as well gary. It's been great to have you on the program. Thanks very much. It's a bummer. That you don't even let a few people travel as passengers. Because i know it's not just your dream. People wanna get on a shipping container ship for a dry goods ship and take a long trip. Maybe as a stowaway. It's a little bit easier. Gary vogel there from eagle bulk. Let's get back to the market. Because of course greg was talking about the rally that we're seeing in equities and not the chicken sandwich maker. David dietz joins us right now. He's managing principal and senior portfolio. Strategist at ppac. Private wealth management david. I i wonder when i look at this. And i've been asking all of our guests. Today is the rotation that we saw kinda surprised rotation over from from growth to value as we see the nasdaq today rally and the dow not doing nearly as well. We'll certainly What's been driving the to tune here. Is this rapid rise in interest rates from the start of a year with a ten year treasury below one percent got up Close to about one point six percent and that did feed this huge rotation into stocks. We'll do well with the economic reopening Banks to loan money at higher rates Some of this uptick in interest rates is due to inflationary fears and so commodities energy industrials doing well and of course they rotated out of the nasdaq david door yesterday today. Of course it's going the other way round. David doesn't that march higher for rates doesn't have a lot further to go. I mean i've talked to a few people who are real outlier. Scott minored for example thinks the tenure could go negative but most other people are saying. Look with the incredible growth ahead of us. Bloomberg economics did a survey and found a seven point six percent expectation nominal. Gdp growth then rates have to keep going higher from here. I tell my clients. I said there's only one thing more difficult than predicting the direction of stock market and nesper predicting the direction of interest rates. But i'll tell you this if the vaccine will continues to march along well if the stimulus is well distributed and we see another infrastructure bill coming down the pike if the federal reserve does not try and somehow cap the rising interest rates if consumer confidence continues to go in the right direction. I do think there will be a normalization of the economy that will mean normalization of interest rates. Remember in two thousand nineteen interest rates ranged between two point. Eight and one point eight. Why wouldn't they go back to those levels so i that's the path of least resistance all right given that bullets background david. What are some of the names. You like right here that you guys are working on. Yeah absolutely so you gotta stay with tech. We got bill long-term themes Tailwinds for increase of technology. We've heard about the chip shortage. So i want to go with the number one chip producer in the world which is intel. And what i like about intel. It has a cyclical twist to it. Because it's a chip manufacturer. There's also has valued twist to it because of its valuation. You've got a almost two and a half percent dividend you about twelve times. Earnings is the largest in the world and also allows you for participation in For example artificial intelligence autonomous driving The movement to the cloud. And so you kinda have your best of both worlds. You've got the tech exposure. Plus you've got your your your value exposure. Which i think is going to do well this year. I think i heard you mentioned the word infrastructure and for me. This isn't one of the most exciting things about the not too distant future. We all know the two trillion dollar fiscal stimulus. Package is going to be. We're likely to see it pass in the next few days but for me even more exciting as thinking about what president biden will do in terms of stimulus spending or infrastructure spending. What do you expect there. So you know i think that do they not this. Early wind biden administration under their belt with the your two trillion or stimulus. I think they are going to push ahead and get something in infrastructure. What i think is going to be interesting. Here is not just going to be bridges. tunnels and roads. i think it's also going to include You know expansion of the internet to those who have less access to it so my stocked for my clients here for that is horizon now. Vries's the stock. That's still hasn't come back to where it was in late. Nineteen ninety s. But if you're talking about five g verizon they've just spent big time to get more spectrum They are by far the best wireless service out there. And so i think that you know With your four and a half percent event about twelve times. Earnings horizon is a low risk way to play. Expansion of the internet could be fueled by infrastructure package. Jim about thirty seconds. Visors on your list is it's been a pre pandemic players this your play on their vaccine. Yeah you know. I think it's both so the stuck ran up to about forty three on the excitement of being the first to get the emergency use authorization from the fda up to and now it's back down to thirty four. Why is that. Because there's two reasons one is if we have this big economic expansion. What does that do to healthcare. Do people use more drugs. Probably second there still concerned as to whether heavy-handed legislation comes out of washington. But i think that's well priced into the stock remember. Healthcare is the other sector. You got about a four and a half percent dividend on fire about thirteen fourteen times. The best darned de pipeline and those a great exposure overseas who want the same kind of deluxe healthcare that we have so. I think this is a nice way to participate in continued growth in the stock market without taking a whole lot of risk. David thanks so much. We really appreciate it. As always nobody pitches a name at better than david. Dt gets it all out there and twenty to thirty seconds. Nobody does it better. David dietz managing principal and senior portfolio. Strategist at ppac. Private wealth management in a lovely summit new jersey tip a look at the auto business about. I know. you're your big big auto fan gear head. Let's take a look at the car parts business. There's nobody better to do that with than left. Pekar he's the ceo of car parts dot com. Thanks so much for joining us here. Matt and i were just looking at the five year chart for your stock again. The symbol as pr trades on nasdaq. It was kind of just almost a penny stock there for the five year chart until you know kind of kind of march of last year and then it just exploded. Is this a pandemic play. Is that what you're stock has become. Yeah that's a common misconception. I think you know the business Wasn't really going anywhere for a long time You know the company's been public since two thousand eight Didn't really grow for twelve years. And then i an entirely. New management team came and I started in january of two thousand and nineteen and we executed a great turnaround plan focusing on solving customer problem and last quarter alone withdrew ninety percents For the full year we grew fifty eight percent to four hundred fifty million. And so you know. We're we're articulating really wild. I'm really proud of the way that humans executing right now and Way way beyond the pandemic now. But i mean it can't be just a coincidence that your stock is trading for like two or three bucks for four years. I mean it's fair to say that you executed on a plan to even double revenue but in march of two thousand twenty. You go from like a dollar thirty seven to more than twenty dollars a share. That's gotta be more have more to do something else than just doubling revenue right. I mean what's your outlook. Yeah so we just released a long-term model And what we believe that we can grow at twenty to twenty five percent kager Over over the long term We also believe that we can achieve eight to ten percent margins and so we have a really bright outlook. We're only limited by the inventory have there's no no demand issue at all Demanded this early strong and so By positioning the inventory. Closer to the customer we believe we can disrupt the industry where business has really been done the same way for the last six now. You're talking about the parts. Are you talking about the parts industry or the electric car industry. Because i know you're starting an evi A plug in hybrid hub as well to sell whole cars right. Correct not to sell whole cars You know we're really focused on Selling parts And so for us. disrupting the means. You know selling selling more parts M going against the likes of autozone none of the balance. And so the hub. If yeah yeah well for even as well Ninety percent of the parts that we sell our powertrain agnostic. And so you know. And the the vehicle have fame will hubs and shocks and struts and control arms and bumper covers mirror so a lot of the parts are really odd to the powertrain. And so we're just focused on solving customer problems getting them back under oath. Let's talk about the competitive position here. You mentioned a couple of your competitive. We're just car. Parts dot com stand in terms of market share in this business and kind of. What are your your goals and aspirations. Yeah so this is a really large industry Three hundred billion dollars Where a tiny company was only half a billion in revenue and so no we think that by getting closer to the customer we have unique value proposition that we get the parts from the factory with put them in our distribution centers and worship him straight to the customers so By cutting out the middleman we're able to pass on a lot of the savings to the customer so most of our parts are you know fifty to seventy percent cheaper than you. Buy them At your local events are autozone store and so that's how we believe we can win by passing on a lot of the savings to the consumer and cutting out. All the middlemen are you. Do you think that your customers are going to increase in number due to the pandemic in any way i mean the idea. That people won't wanna ride the subway anymore or buses. They're to want to buy cars. And maybe the used car market is a huge part of that. Is that part of your plan. That is correct. So few tailwinds here One that you know. More people will be relying on personal ability There's gonna be more used cars on the road Additionally it's not good for cars to be parked for awhile driven parts for a while then again. A lot of their over gas gets and things like that breakdown People have been delayed some of the maintenance because they haven't been driving as much So all of these are tailwinds because eventually you know car started breaking down and there are a lot of cars on the road today about two hundred seven million in the us And the average age of the vehicle is about twelve years so a lot of old cars on the road of great. I by the way you used to be adorama. Which if people don't know the The av space and cameras. it's huge. So it what are you bringing from. Adorama to car parts. I think it just a relentless focus on on the customer and You know eletronic the space to be in Because margins are so low and so you have to find a way to differentiate yourself From the other competitors best buy amazon. You have some some big guys in electronic state and so. I thought we did that by focusing on the customer and solving customer a customer problem. That's what we're doing here as well all right. Great talking you love pekar. They're coming to us from car. Parts dot com and what an interesting story at the stock has dropped more than i guess tenfold over the last year. Thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter. At matt miller nineteen seventy-three and on fall sweeney on twitter at p. T. sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us. Worldwide at bloombergradio. Climate change is at the center of everything. Bloomberg green is at the center of solving it by powerful and global newsroom. Bloomberg green is focused on solutions and the greatest opportunity of our generation bloomberg green solutions for a changing climate in partnership with general motors. J. l. l. and standard chartered visit bloomberg dot com slash green.
A big warning for the bond market, and a critical moment for Cathie Wood
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Io today see important information at masterwork dot io slash disclaimer live and the nasdaq market overlooking. New york city's times square. This is fast money. I'm melissa lee. Tonight's trainer lineup. Eighth and grasso victoria fernandez and james mcdonald tonight on bass colin bond's chart master sounding the alarm in the treasury market. Just wait until you hear where. Carter were yields headed plus. We're going bargain-hunting and tech land. Handful of big names are well off their fifty two week highs. Any of the worth a second look and later knock on wood. Why one trader says arkan. Best kathy would is facing a major moment of truth the one chart that makes plane at all but we start off tonight with that big warning in the bond market of stocks had record highs once again today the yield on the tenure fell to its lowest level since march third in the chart. Master says rates are going to collapse even further from here cornerstone. Macos carter workers a break it down. Kick it off carter. You bet i mean so hard to know of course but it's it's such an important subject then it's obviously one of the biggest single securities there as the ten year treasury bond and where yields are where rates are determined valuation for equities and mortgages. And so so much of this really matters and my hunch is this weakness is not or and that there is more downside to go basically. We're looking as low as one to five. Now you know we'll look if you charts but is that that much meaning where at one four five. Now we'll see so four charts. The first is the channel That you'll have been sending since last summer and so when this was introduced at least i'm sure other people have their own channels but in in our work we've relied on it heavily and in fact you see those arrows there. I've tried to make some tactical calls. Nt l. t. and the treasury market now. the issue is Starting in late may when we approached the bottom of the channel once again. We didn't really approach the by. The channel rates went sideways. They stall and the channel by rising they met they bumped into. That's an arbitrary moment in time. You don't get a bounce off the lower end of a channel if you haven't come down to it if you just mannered sideways and it's come up to you. Nothing happens and indeed we've broken below and you can see that on the chart now the second chart and this is why this we retired the channel if you will With honors so to speak the second chart shows why the channel is no longer relevant and that line drawn there. That is june thirty for rates to be in the channel. Rachel have to go back to one. Eight two in the next thirteen trading sessions. The not likely happen. Take a look at the next chart. That second line drawn. That's july thirty rates would have to be at two point one in order to get back into the channel by july thirty. I'd say the that zero so the question is Y down This this is so unexpected for consensus this move lower i I think it's it's it's it's got more to go and the final chart and you could say this arbitrary but it's really not the one to five level you'll see where i drawn the line. All of the moving yields was done in about thirty days. It was basically the last Days at january february went from one percent to one seven seven. and all. we've been doing since it's already mid june slumping and i think the slump continues all right carter. Thank you carter. Braxton worthless in a few minutes and options action all right in a world in which yields had one to five dan. What what does that look like. I mean in terms of the economy does that mean that we're in for a slowdown of some sort or funny. If you think back to after the financial crisis remember like in two thousand ten eleven twelve. The was a double dip recession right and it gave the fed a lotta covered. Kinda keep zirk and keep the quantitative easing the way it was and i think it's really important to kind of think back to what that play will book. It was i. I know a lot has changed but think about the taper tantrum in two thousand thirteen. We saw the ten year. Us treasury yield go to thirty three percent or so but once they started tapering. The yield went all the way down to one point five percent and they didn't start coming off that zero interest rate bound until two thousand and fifteen late two thousand and fifteen to carter's point. I think tim mentioned this. Last night. if the tapering is coming and if the data is getting maybe a little weaker we just had those too hot. cpi print. but we've had disappointing jobs prints if data's weaker maybe they start to taper a little bit they're going to sell off the corporate bonds. Maybe they buy less. Nbs is one thought but maybe rates can come in the two hundred eight moving average in the tenure us treasury yield down here one point one sort of the opposite. I mean just to fill people who who didn't watch. I mean i know some of you may not have fast money yesterday which is shocking. But that happens attempts where was making the point that perhaps we're seeing in terms of the slump and yields. Is that the bond market is anticipating a couple steps ahead of the stock market that the fed will in fact begin to taper because inflation is in fact transitory we get the economy reopened. They moved to taper bonds. Go up go down but what happens if we if the simple answer is we entered. We entered this into in a deflationary environment. So chairman powell said there was no inflation. What happens if there is no inflation. Is that bad for the markets. Is it good for the markets. It was good for the markets back. So what happens now. If you just said is that is that. Is that indicative of a slump in the economy. I think it's indicative that the market's going to run higher because the fed is going to be accommodative. we're going to have squishy financial policy and no one flation. So does that make you think. Assets or certain risk assets can continue to move higher. The problem is convalle. you move higher. So we've seen growth into value. What does value do well in a world. Windshields are one to five. Let's say victoria gives a massive reprieve for for the tech trade in particular the high valuation stocks across the tech trade or across industries. For that matter you're right so you talk about the growth in the value trae will that should be a little boost in the arm of the growth trade. Those are the stocks that got hit so hard when we saw yields move back up in march but that the yields were moving so much higher because people didn't have faith in what the fed was saying they didn't believe that inflation was going to be transitory. And i think there's been a consolidation of thought. There i think the market now believes probably the majority of inflation as transitory not all of it but the majority you're going to get a smaller infrastructure package so it makes sense the heels of come down a little bit. What i'm hoping we see. Not just because. I managed taxable fixed income portfolios that i hope we see rates turn around and go a little bit higher as the base effects roloff and we do see kind of a hand. Offload inflation from transitory to wages to rents things that are a little stickier. Europe starts to open up and pulls are yield higher. That way is well. And so. I think we can see rates. Yes they might come down in the short term. But i think we'll see a steeper yield curve with the fed maintaining where they are and inflation expectations starting to rise again as we get towards the end of the year. James what's your take on a world in which yields go to one to five. We've been looking at correlations equities first time with where it's being a risk factor and we've seen a lot of buying interest in tech Correlated with this Drop in treasuries here not just this past week but really for the past month and it also coincides with new potential fifty. Two week highs We're seeing that with the snp. We've seen it with the russell close and now nasdaq is getting back up there. We'd seen most pressure in the market around tacking. And we're gonna talk about some big tech names later in the show but we're knocking on another fifty two and i think that this moving treasuries is somewhat of an indicator of sentiment in terms of the equities going higher with this rate move with rates. Haven't been in discussion about risk before. So i think it's not necessarily reactionary. But i think is correlated. I tac is gonna the benefactor you just mentioned what are some trades right off of a lower interest rate environment. Which a lot of people. I think the rest of the panel is just said are not really position for and you think that the stock market some of the things that we're seeing so you mentioned a big big cap tech his bid. What about cat. What about deer. Cyclical names industrials that you saw a major rotation as people were coming out of tech into those things are rolling over right now. We're talking last night about home builders and you don't think about some of the input costs that we've seen in there. We've seen lumber come in thirty percent from those recent highs that seemed like a frenzy. We're talking about well. Those are the sorts of supply demand imbalances that. We've seen at least over my career that have fixed themselves. They tend to be pretty transitory. I don't think there's anything going to be. Structurally changed about how americans live. You know what. I mean that sort of thing at the end of the day i think you look under the hood. We're gonna get really comfortable with money going back in the big cat. We know the most we know the monopolies we know the management's that sort of thing and then you might see some of these things kind of overshot to the upside that did overshoot to the downside during the throws of the pandemic sell. They may start to come in and kind of get to a level where valuations make more sense and whether or not over anticipating a really strong economy. You're talking about. Is the infrastructure plan. That victoria spoke about if it's only six or eight percent real bridges tunnels roads. How can a cat a deer or you. Are i really run. Because we're talking about kicker ryan for those stocks that was predicated on an infrastructure. Bill panel higher reopening. So that's that's where. I've been perplexed because i when you look at rates rolling over catch should be sold when you look at the economy reopening catch be bought regardless of where rates are so. That's where i am. I'm somewhere in the middle where you on on on chemicals and material still long them because they've all doubled they've all these chemical names have doubled so i'm still long them but they are definitely flattening out to dan's point that they're not out there highs they're probably fifteen twenty percent off their highs but they're still forty fifty eighty percent higher than what i bought them. So i'm sort of waiting for this reopening. the has to happen to see what. How dang busters the economy goes. Because that's what i think is going to happen if the bond market's already two steps i mean in theory at the bond market isn't bacteria two steps ahead of the stock market victoria. Then that would tell me that it is time to rotate out of this reopening trait. It's time to get out of materials. It's time to get out of cyclicals. What's your take on where to be right now. If if the bond market is right. Melissa i know. People don't like to hear the word barbell when it comes to their portfolio. But i think this is the exact environment when a bar. Bell portfolio makes perfect sense. And it's exactly because of what steve was talking about. Some of the moves that we've seen really don't coincide with what you would expect what they reopening trae your with rates moving lower. So do you have exposure to some of those growth names. Those even secular growth names some of the techniques absolutely. I think you need them in your portfolio. Does that mean you completely come out of your cyclical names. Not at all. I mean i think you need a deer. You need a honeywell. We own those in our portfolio. You need a j. p. morgan in your portfolio. You need to have some of those cyclical components as well. This is where things are going to get really tough whereas maybe the last year it was easier to jump in on a sector or jumping on a theme and do well regardless now the fundamentals are really going to come into play. Stop picking is going to be key. You really need to pick your name to look at the balance sheet. But i think the barbell approach works james. I have known you for a long time. But i don't feel like you're a barbell kinda guy woes that an insult. No no no. I mean using barbells you investing style two different things but how would you characterize your portfolio's now at this juncture in the market. I agree with victoria. You have to be very disciplined about analyzing the merits of individual security both in the context of its individual fundamental performance and in the context of the environment and plays. And i think we're late cycle equities here We keep knocking on fifty. Two week highs. There've been record after record set and we're in an unusual period of monetary policy. And so i think examining the metrics within a specific security within the specific space and then obviously suitability. We're all focused here at hercules and so we are definitely analyzing individual securities. Because i think there's going to be a flight to quality as markets will need to get choppy coming into the summer and coming into the fall as we see how the reopening actually performs james just mentioned where choppy and. I think back to the post financial crisis. I just mentioned the obsession with the double dip recession fears but also global growth. This was a rolling credit crisis. If you recall we came out of at first and then it was in europe and asia. And if you think back to fifteen and sixteen when we were trying to normalize our interest rate policy we talk some tons of volatility across over every major asset class specifically about china growth. And that sort of thing. So i think that the idea that we're just going to be reopened and it's off to the races for the next decade doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense especially when you consider in two thousand and twenty one. We've got about three peak atop declines about four and a half percent. Those are pretty run of the mill here. So if there's any reason to sell off the complacency is very high you said the vix trade fifteen and a half today. It seems like we could be ready for some sort of growth sorta scare in the not so distant future app next. Everyone's a favorite stock picking game. That's all right. A friday edition or traded or or we were tackling a few beaten down tech names or any of them worth the second. Look plus the one chart that shows kathy would is facing a major moment of truth what it is and why it matters. Don't go anywhere fast monies back into your the hiring expert for your company in which you really need is making your shortlist of quality candidates. You need a hiring partner who helps make your life easier. You need indeed indeed. Is the job site that makes hirings easy. Easiest one two three post screen and interview all on indeed. Get your quality shortlists candidates whose resumes on indeed match. Your job description faster. Only pay for the candidates that meet must have qualifications and schedule and complete video interviews in. You're indeed dashboard with tools. Like indeed instant match giving you quality candidates whose resume on indeed featured job description immediately and indeed skills tests that on average reduces hiring time by twenty seven percent. You can choose from more than one hundred thirty skills tests then add your must have requirements. You only pay for applications. That beat them. According to the talent nest indeed delivers four times. More hires than all other job sites combined get started right now with a free seventy five dollars sponsored job credit to upgrade your job post at indeed dot com slash fast. Money get a seventy five dollars credit at indeed dot com slash fast money indeed dot com slash fast money offer valid through june thirtieth terms and conditions apply. Welcome back to fast money. The nas- canyon. Its fourth straight week of gains. That hasn't happened since january. The index is now up nearly five percent in just the past month but not everyone is come along for the ride. A handful of the names are well their fifty two week high so we thought it'd be a great time to play a little game of traded or faded. Let's kick it off with peleton thirty four percent off. Its fifty two week high. Dan what do you say trade it. I mean here's the thing stock still down twenty five percent on the year here. Listen i think there's a little nuance mel. I traded into making its right shoulder head and shoulders top. Because i think about ready to kind of make one last push higher you know maybe you see one twenty one twenty five or so but then you want to sell it listen. The company had that really bad period of pr. The whole tread thing bein went back. I'm very sorry to say but great company great streaming services and trading a pretty reasonable valuation relative to where what six months ago right and we have interest rates lower. So that could help this train at least for now grasso when he say i'm on the right shoulder trade. I'm a feeder of peleton smaller shoulder. But i think we've reached peak peleton. I've said this was about a buck. Twenty in the stock. You definitely traded off so to dan's point pop back you might have a little bit there but negative pr. And what are people doing. They're going back out to gyms. It's going to be a hard sale. I say this all right. Next up by wapping forty seven percent off the fifty two week. High victoria traded faded. I think when you look at where we are right now like you said forty percent off the high down fourteen fifteen percent on the year. This is it for us. We like the longer term secular growth component of it. They had great earnings. Their guidance was really good. I mean think they were. Fourteen to twenty four percent was the guidance for revenue growth. For next year they have the live streaming platform they're on and when you look at the advertising component and the part of the business. It's really sticky where they're managing companies websites. That grew tremendously to over twenty percent. So i think there's some runway here because it is pulled back so far we would go ahead and trade it dan. I'm fading right here. I think victoria made a great bulk as but she said long term and so right now so horribly. I do agree with her on evaluation basis. If you're expecting mid to high teens. Eps and sales growth is trading about sixteen and a half times next year. That makes perfect sense but from a trading perspective right now it does not act. Well it's very heavy. And some of the headlines in china in general are not particularly great. So i am fading all right. Let's get to zoom here. Thirty eight percent of its fifty two week high. James traded or fade it. If we can read lips or steve you want to do it. I'm going to go to victoria. This out victoria. What do you say. So we're going to trade it and that's actually a different stance for us during the year. We did not like names like zoom. We swam is really the play. But i mean even in our company were upgrading. Our zoom subscription. This week we have our new cio bob dole. He's doing a big presentation. We didn't have enough capacity for people to join it. We had to upgrade. And i think as zoom becomes more of the part of the day to day business plan of companies going forward and not just a pandemic solution. Then it's opened up. The runway is no longer going to be quite as volatile. We're not going to get the same growth that we saw over the last year. But i do think. There's some potential runway resume all right james. It can hear you. Now what do you say sorry about that. I think that zoom was the benefactor of a situation and the situation change in that was everybody was working from home. Everybody had to figure out how to move on with life in the pandemic and it got a tremendous live from that since late october since the vaccine was announced and i've got to expect that that trajectory is going to continue as we go back to normal important tool important communication medium but it was getting the tailwinds of a situation that is completely changed. All right we finish this game off with qualcomm twenty percent off fifty two week highs grasso. I'm willing to give this one. The benefit of the doubt. This one is in the growth bucket and rates are definitely coming in and i think vich rejected is lower for rates so it easier glide path for growth qualcomm is in that glide path just broke out of its declining trend line. It's down basically for the year. But i'm willing to say trade this one james. We're halfway through the year almost and it's continuing to suffer. I think that Relative to the tech sector relative computer sector earnings look good year over year revenues. Look good In florida earnings growth multiples even better than the sector. But it's continually losing money. And i think this is going to be a fade coming up the options traders signing on and doing a deep dive on a top software name options action kicks soft and just a few minutes but first a moment of truth for the arc innovation. Etf trade. we have the one chart that you need to see. We'll bring it to you. Invest money returnees. Welcome active fast. One if you're in kathy woods innovation. Etf you might want to knock on wood so to speak. The fund has been climbing back the last few weeks after seeing a big route in the spring. But dan says we coming up against a critical moment for this trade. So let's just look at that one year chart you look at that downtrend. It went from one sixty to one hundred. We talked about it earlier in the week. And it's just had that really nice bounce here and it's trading right. It's two hundred day. Moving average is just purely from a technical standpoint and that is a smoothing mechanism is our friends. W like to say here. Look at that chart right there. I just think it's a really critical spot. Yes it's great that it's over that downtrend but if it fails at the two hundred day which it did a few weeks ago we could be retesting. One hundred again all that being said look at the top holdings we know that tesla is about ten percent we know square and roku intel dot in a lot of these controversial names maybe high valuation high-growth name. So really why. This is important to me just from a sentiment standpoint. We know this isn't about means stocks. This is about companies that are about change the world. That's what she thinks is going to happen. But high valuations right but again it all comes back to interest rates and it certainly does and so does this trade rosso. It does when you look out chart. It's actually. I was looking at the fifty week moving average as well and it's the same exact as the two hundred day moving average so it's staggered they're right below and it's been playing games with a. It's done this a lot at. It does look like it. Set up to fail but if interest rates continue to move lower. You're going to get the bids in all of these top. Ten names that dan. Dan just pointed out victoria. Do any of these high valuation names fit on any end of the barbell that you have will. I think they hand names like square. That i think will do well going forward. They're part of that kind of secular growth as well. We think they're going to do well like the credit cards are going to do well going forward. That's maybe part of that reopening trae. You do have the really volatile names. Like a tesla that we don't own in our large-cap earlier we don't wanna own it. There i think you have to be careful and like you said it comes down to rates if you think carter worth is right and we get down to a one and a quarter on the tenure and it stays there then. This is your opportunity to get in. i don't think it is. I think yields are going higher. We're going to have a steeper curve and a lot of these names are going to pay with that all right. Let's get to the final trade around the horn. We go james mcdonald s k. I n twenty dollars price target on this vanity plate as your fast. Pitch victoria fernandez bora pull. It's my trade fifteen times right now. Much less than the other names there. And i think the catalyst boarded cloud space going floor. Dan nathan large has been volatile. I like pfizer here. Playing for removed back to those prior all-time highs steve goss out. Fisker again play. F asks are rates going lower. This one caught a bid. Faust aggressively will continue. Do so all right here on fast. What exchange is now a podcast. Brian sullivan join me. As we hit the biggest money stories from around the world breaking down the risks and rewards of global. Trade the news. You need to know. What real world actionable advice and even a little fun and unique content. You won't get anywhere else like the most random but interesting thing you'll hear all day. Subscribe to the world exchanged podcast today.
198 Leaders Make Good News Out of Bad
"This is recorded future inside security intelligence. Hello everyone and welcome to episode one hundred. Ninety eight of the recorded future podcast. I'm dave bittner from the cyber wire on today's program a conversation with a pair of ceo's from leading companies in the cybersecurity industry joining us. Our martin macos ceo of bug bounty platform provider hacker one and christopher ahlberg ceo atp recorded future. They share their insights on what it takes to be successful. Ceo in a rapidly changing cybersecurity. Field the importance or not having deep technical skills at differentiate yourself in a crowded marketplace and the ongoing challenges of the unknown unknowns. Stay with us so before we dig into some of the topics. We're going to talk about today. I'm our audiences Familiar with christopher. He's been on the show a few times but Martin can you give a little brief overview of of the type of work that you do at hacker one attack one. We crowd source security to a million ethical hackers in the world. They come in and they hack your systems and instead of breaking in they tell you what they find so you can fix it and in that way you reduce your cyber risk risk of data breach you know since we have this opportunity of of being to leaders of cybersecurity companies. When are we digging a little bit and talk about what that experience is like. What the day to day is like of running successful cybersecurity companies christopher. Why don't we start with you. Good question so i think about it. Sort of you got to have sort of balance your time First of all start with your customers or your clients. You know you gotta make sure the in you know the the thing when you run a company is that. There's so many things that people try to make you do so. You have to be vehemently focused on. Stay focused on customers trying to understand the problems they want to solve. You know figure out how you can do. Clever things without I'm a technical. Co deep by background. So i tend to try to think fair fairmont and spend time in our product stuff you know. How can we actually shape this. You know to to sold for for the customer problems and then making sure that you have the right people on board which means that you involved in recruiting and all kinds of different things. That are whether it's sort of very short-term get south sally or bob were lisa onto the team or you think about the long-term two three four five years. How do we make sure that we get great. People on board make sure that those can develop themselves in great ways inside the company. And just make sure that you have a great team so if you spend time on those three areas. I think you do pretty well. A lot of people tend to be focused on fundraising and all kinds of other weird things that i think. Sort of come for free. If you do what i just talked about sort of And and so customers and sort of product and technology being real clever about that and your people and then then things will work out great. I agree with what christopher said. But i would also say are being. I built a number of businesses in my career and in cybersecurity. While what i find intriguing is that we are all trying to make turn trying to turn bad news into good news Security is dealing with problems dealing with risks dealing with nasty things dealing with things. You wouldn't want to deal with dealing with things where people have made mistakes. So there's a lot of sort of cleaning up and dirt and bad stuff there but but for the business to work we have to turn it around and show the benefit of it and a customer sees so or anybody else in the security business. They don't want to be the one saying no in their company. They want to be a business enabler. So so it's meant thuillier demanding question how to turn all that bad stuff into good news for business and to me. That's that's an intriguing challenge with any cyber security business. Does that resonate with christopher. No i think so. It is very interesting and you know. In general running companies general running startups. I always like to say that people say they try to say that this startup stuff is sort of has good and bad days. And i'm like no you know it really. It has twenty nine bad days but it is just sat. One one day out of the thirty. That really awesome. That makes up for the twenty nine so you sort of generally in startup land live of pretty up and down and lots of downside of days and then you overly that to to morton's point the idea that you you frankly are dealing with you know potential bad constantly and it's it can be taxing and i'm fine with that. I'm sort of more than as a super strong guy. So he can sort of deal with that but you gotta make sure that your team can deal with that in a decent way and you know through the last year when you put sort of covert on top of. This is certainly hasn't been really easy. So i think it's a great point. Yeah there. is this a picture circulating social mediums cybersecurity people with this dog or cat sitting in a burning house and the their flames all over and then the animal says it's all right or it's good and it's it's yeah. This is fine exactly. It's so much the the reality that we have to deal with burning fires all the time and yet we have to maintain our calm and balance and composure. And and see the the good news in it. So that's that's what makes cybersecurity excites i think. What would you know. What's interesting is that. I think about our business being intelligence and our our job is to make sure that a c. So or other decision makers get the best information flow there can ever be. And what you're doing by sort of crowdsourcing vulnerabilities these ethical hackers sort of similar. You create a fantastic information flow in decision making sort of flow to to the sea so and and other people on the climb client side of things and you're right when you get that information flow. It's not unlike somebody who works in whether it's a you meant intelligence organization or organization. Whatever it is. It's sort of like you face having bad news coming out you potential bad news coming out you at high pace and if you start if you operate it away where you panic on that and yukon you just can't you know there's and i think that's sort of as leaders. Our job is to sort of take this. This sort of flow information. It just make sure that turned turns it into something good and i like that. I'm starting to think about product changes that we need to do to to think about that. That's very powerful. Yeah i tell our customers. Sometimes that somebody will break into your system and please let it be us and because when we do it we will actually help you fix it by. There are many other other people and groups and at not who will just break into stealing formation or disrupt operation or change change what goes into drinking water or something like that you know it strikes me that many startups begin because someone has an idea about a problem they wanna solve you know they they. There's something that they have an itch scratch. They want to fix something. That's out there but a lot of folks don't consider what it also takes to be the person running a company and that solving a problem and running a company are not the same thing and they quite often require different skill sets. I'm curious from both of you. How has that Adjustment been or how has that reality been is is running the business itself. Something that you enjoy martin with start with you yeah. Absolutely it's sort of is the only thing i can do. I don't have business ideas. I don't start great companies. Like i don't do that but but i do. Love getting people together. Aligning them behind a goal or mission that the founders figured out and then pushing driving getting to that gold climbing the hill together and and. I'm so thankful that there are founded out there. Who have these amazing start-up ideas. Because because i need something like that for to be successful as a ceo and and then i find founders. Who need me who who need sort of professional dedicated who loves just being the ceo. Christopher now i think that's Let's get so inspired. When i get to have dinner with more to spend have have some drinks with him and and sort of see is exceedingly good at what he just is described. So i'm more of the geek and been lucky to sort of stumble on to ideas one. I bought fire. That came out of my and then we'll be cooked up recorded future and that was more in that sort of like you know you find a big ads hammer and now you know you go look for nails to to sort of apply it to so so that's sort of what i've been doing We were lucky. In both cases now future to stumble on intelligence and threat intelligence as soda be becoming a very big neal to try to hit it on. I is certainly still love. The the geeky part of it About you know. Running the company and trying to set an operational height pace that sort of with effective sort of Execution is enticing to. So you know i like both. I certainly like both now. Martin came from outside of the cybersecurity field. What was that like for you. Getting up to speed and cyber. I love the question. Because i had decided i will not go into cyber. I told myself. I sort of falsely told myself that that industries full of negative cynical nitpicky people and i don't want to be there So when i when i've met with the founders of heiko on i came with really a lot of prejudice and sort of negativity but they turned around in a nanosecond. They told me how they think about security that you need to be open not closed. You need to collaborate not work in silos. You need to share not hide. And and suddenly i realized that they were revolutionizing cybersecurity to turn it into a positive constructive movement. So i was ready to sign on that moment was although i knew nothing about it like in a way i'm You could say. I'm repenting now. Because i've been there building internet software for twenty years. That didn't have any proper. Cyber security precautions are protections and we shipped my sequel without the password with a default password just to make it easy for people to us. We didn't do anything to to make it secure to sort of fix my own mistakes from the past by making sure that we build a new internet with act which actually is secure because what we built so far is a really crappy shitty prototype of a digital society fund. I remember when you called me. I also came from outside security but it had maybe had a few years. Have had What you say being just and you called me. Because you are coming to boston to visit your son i think and said look you to tell me a little bit about this security stuff. I don't know much but let me let me try to tell you the stuff that i do know. That was so so whatever. I wrong about cybersecurity. I'll just blame it on christopher. Because he was my first he was my first teacher. It seems like it worked out fine for both of you. we're working. Christopher will say that it's day one of the business and they've only touched the percent of the target market which is true for us. It's true you know. Look we're we're hundred and forty million and of sales and we think the market is twenty five billion. So you know we're it's early days. Well let's talk about. Then how do you go about Adding value in cybersecurity field. It's such a crowded space. How do you differentiate yourselves christopher. I know we've tried a couple of different ways. I think there is something going on in subject security that there's frankly too much money going around so people. Are you know advertising on formula. One cars applying ten million bucks on that or they're doing you know tb advertising on super bowl or or whatever sort of football thing. I can't say that. But you know the the and they spend literally crazy amounts of money on this stuff and we've tried be using information. We're an intelligence company so we bright intelligence. We started out as you. Well know own media outlet the record. We're publishing books where you know we're doing training on building a profession essentially of intel analysts. So we really try to take that sort of flow or approach to building an information sort of approach or content of content marketing. People call it start-up languages language because that's how we've tried to do it and that's seems to have been working out so i don't know what about you. Morton we differentiate by reducing our customer cyber risk faster than anything else We differentiate by getting paid for results not for empty promises. We don't sheep. You just more and more firewalls antivirus software to try to make you fat falsely. Believe you're safe where we deliver real value tangible value that nobody else could find. The vulnerabilities are hackers. Finding cannot be found or arnold found by scanners. They are found in pen testing. They're not founding. qa processes they are found only in two places by criminals and by our hackers. So you have to choose. Who do you want to find. Who want there to be the first one finding the vulnerability that's good and at some level. You know this is where. I think there's sort of interesting similarities to what we do with intelligence is that you know we go and infiltrate the the hackers themselves bad guy so we infiltrate them and try to find their intense and capabilities Before they come at you we try to. You know do likewise to go. After state state run actors iran and china and russia and so on understand their capabilities in tanzania and help you defend ahead of that you know getting getting ahead of the curve and here is probably think we're sort of in similar type of businesses even though we're going at it in a very different way is sort of trying to find the the bad news before before the bad guy. Bad guy comes along with it. I agree and here you could see the immaturity of the market that we are not yet coordinating our efforts as much as we could between recorded future hacker. One like we. We will come today when intelligence like you are collecting will be combined with the practical day-to-day findings of our world and that will produce an even clearer picture. What's going on much care than the criminals or the adversaries have their hands. And that's how we will ultimately beat them by by pooling defense and using all our resources on the defense side and then it will be much much stronger than any nation states any criminal group and the activities any terrorist. Whatever we have there on the other side. There's a great point because the you know. The criminals have some levels of sharing and in fact in many ways. They are pretty effective at share. You know whether it's sort of the russian criminals who are in their forums where they're sharing methodologies and you know so they have actually better sharing methodologies right now than what you know we have governments are trying to set up sharing mechanisms and so on and so i think the criminals are ahead of us now but to your point if we were smart around this week could outsmart these guys just because in sheer numbers since your body all of that. There's no reason they should be. Yeah and and we have a concrete example on our side. We've been running the hack of the pentagon program for years now for the pentagon we've found. Twenty five thousand vulnerabilities in the systems. There are now rolling out an extension of where they go to the private sector and say if you are a vendor to the dod you can be part of this program as well because dod knows that they are not secure until all their vendors suppliers are secure so now they're extending our program to private sector companies as well. That is a very good way of strengthening the cyber defences across organizational boundaries. And it hasn't been done before but we're doing it. it's great. i think that's a great point. And i think we've been very proud about it similarly we've been able to do with. Us cyber command and and sort of as our big contract there being able to be part of defending both core infrastructure for the government further into really sort of being able to use those bass resources to to make life miserable for the adversary and eventually will have a good effect. And people think there's a lot of adversaries and a lot of bad people. They are not many. They're bad and they're very bad but they are not very many so so by pooling our resources and getting everybody together. We're we will out power them. Outsmart them out. Run them outmaneuver them. Everything like we have just in our community we already have a million. Hackers signed up to do good work to hack for good. That's that's more than there are black cats in the whole world much much more. I'm curious you know it strikes me that something. Perhaps both of your companies have in common. Is that before your customers. Engage with you. It's likely that they don't know what they don't know that you provide insights. You provide them with information. They they likely would not have been able to get on their own is. Is that an accurate description. Yeah yes it is it is. It's very much and and of course everybody has. We all don't know what we don't know like universal truth by this. It is very pregnant in cyber security. Because that's where the worst threats and the worst breaches happened so when you look at the absolutely worst cases like an equifax or something well they knew about the vulnerability but it's it's the unknown. Unknown that produces the most dramatic terrible outcome. So you must look for them and then we have these unbiased hackers very creative very curious and because they don't know the company they're not inside the company they actually think much more creatively and find those unknown unknowns that you never can instruct software to find because the moment you instruct software to do something software will do only what you told but are hackers. They will have the creativity to go beyond any any instruction we give them. They will think the unthinkable and they will find the unknown unknowns and that is the power of the muddle and of course not all of them will all the time do it but when you have a million there's always somebody who does find it that's great and it's sort of similar when we think about intelligence you know you want to try to you know again you have to be careful seat on save with intelligence that look going to find you your unknown unknowns but if you sort of set up the right information streams the right information flows whether it's sort of trying to understand what are the bad guys up to. What's their intent. Is a little bit more fancy language. You know what what sort of capabilities to the have. What have we seen elsewhere. you know. there's a whole set of flow so you can set up and if you get yourself in the way of those in a creative way you're going to again get left of boom as people like to call it. You know the you you you can do it. And this is where intelligence really could make a difference now at the same time. I also think this is where we have to be humble it not make too grandiose claims about being able to catch every unknown known because we do then not only are companies but the industry in itself will of get in about place and this is where i think a lot of the cybersecurity industry is looks bad after thirty years of having thrown lots of dollars at the problem and and obviously haven't sold it so humble is the right way of going at it partially people used to think that in cybersecurity. It's possible to reach one hundred percent security. It isn't it's exactly like covid you can. You can be very safe and you can put one more mask on. You will reduce the risk. You'll never have zero risk. It's impossible but you will reduce it. And the the the wisdom is in reducing the risk not in crazily believing in some zero risk world. because because they don't exist so you have to reduce the risk always keep producing it and the other thing Which everybody has to do is act faster because we will given that risk will never be zero. We'll all be hacked or crack at some point no matter how weather even if you use recorded future and hecker one. You're not completely safe so you you must have reaction times when something bad is happening. You must see what's coming in and act quickly. And and that is how you maintain a high security not by believing that there is some wall that you can build. That will keep everything on the outside. It's just that success isn't that wall analogy is sort of. I think the whole idea that you know people think that they're just keep building every year thicker and thicker wall and a higher and higher wall. And there's so many problems that a the whole. The wall is obviously full of holes. That's number one and in fact it's full of holes that people are forgotten about and even if they try to keep inventory of this security industry. Has you know the such high turnover of people that people are manning. The wall running the wall. They turnover every eighteen months at all to hold forgotten. And that's why i think what you're doing. Morton is so important because you find those holes and basically many times maybe even report them back to people even if they at one point may have known about them. And we'd like to think that you know again with intelligence we can go seek out and understand where those bad guys are going to go look for holes but that wall analogy the walls. Sort of approach to people have taken to defense. This gotta go because it's really bad. Yeah and we have to remember the mall more you build walls. The more there are places for holes so we see sort of the minimize the amount of need walls here and there but the more you build them the more you create risk. So it's it's really hard with cyber security because you must be sort of a minimalist the strike to the minimum possible thing that will create security because for every piece of software yet. It's a security risk if you so so you should try to keep it lee and because that allows you to react quickly redeploy pull back whatever you need to do in real time when when something happens at. I think what was amazing. Here with the solar winds breach was how microsoft did like in a few days. Microsoft got all their cybersecurity people going. They revoked all those certificates. They traced down all the places where the malware had been like. I would like to read a book or a story about what happened. In those three four five days at microsoft in their in their cyber security centre when they decided on how to roll out the counterattacks to speak against against the solvents alouette and of course he was not just so long as we call it the solomons breach but there were there was more than just one company involved by there. It was beautiful to see how quickly somebody could act to stop it. Our thanks to martin macos. Ceo at hacker one and christopher burg's ceo at recorded future for joining us. Don't forget to sign up for the recorded future. Cyber daily email where every day you'll receive the top results trending technical indicators that are crossing the web cyber news targeted industries threat. Actors exploited vulnerabilities malware suspicious ip addresses and much more. That recorded future dot com slash intel. We hope you've enjoyed the show and that you'll subscribe and help spread the word. Among your colleagues an online the recorded future podcasts. Production team includes coordinating producer. Caitlyn mattingly the show is produced by the cyber wire with executive editor. Peter kilby and. I'm dave bittner. Thanks for listening.
Cumberland's Kotok: Not Seeing Inflationary Forces Yet
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. And at bloomberg dot com slash podcast. There is an elite group of economists and politicians bankers philanthropists. Who meet up every year camp kotok to cast a rod. I don't know if that's how you say it but david kotok joins us himself right now. Chairman and chief. Investment officer at cumberland advisers. David i feel like mckee has gone rid. holtz has gone kathleen hayes. I've never gotten invite to camp. Might be a reason Officially in the presence of anybody. Who's listening in care. You are invited this august and we would love to have you an amazing vain made. I could actually go home now. But i want to ask you a couple of questions david. I about the state of the us economy especially in light of today's jobs report. It looked great but there's still millions of people without jobs. We talk about the high savings rate. But there's so many people who can't even afford to pay rent is this is this k. Shaped recovery a problem for the fed for example. It appears though Jay pal said so others in the fed. Continue to say so and we shouldn't be deceived deceived by the six percent or so official unemployment rate when you re computed to reflect some technical differences closer to say ten percent. So you think about that you say gee there were about a hundred and fifty five million hundred and fifty two million something like that nonfarm payrolls before govan started and there's fifteen million people out of that group that are not employed today. Some of them with dropped out. Some of them are in the unemployment rate that the picture is recovery. Which is robust. But it's coming off a very deep bother them. So i wouldn't get sanguine that everything's going back to normal and everything's wonderful. I don't think we're there yet. But the trend is good. David you know we again. The trend is good. there's also been some. I guess the murmur starting to build here over the last couple of weeks about inflation and maybe not the good kind of inflation. How are you thinking about kind of what we're seeing. Maybe in the commodities markets seen the treasury's ten year over one point six percent Even earlier this morning. How do you think about inflation where we look at inflation expectations. They are building. There's various ways to estimate them and they're all saying that the expectation is rising. My colleague john musso talks about that all the time. The problem is expectations. Are one thing delivering a change in the price. Level of a strategic. Elevation is something else again. Hard to see it when you have a true unemployment rate somewhere around ten percent in the country so maybe down the road it comes. But we're more mild or sanguine about higher inflation risks than some of the others actually spoke yesterday with scott minored of guggenheim. He's well. I mean he's not liar right. He thinks tenure yield could go negative but his point was that disinflationary forces are much stronger than what he sees as transient inflation. He says you always see a spike in yields like this. But it's but it doesn't day do you look at it. Historically encounter the same conclusion. Pretty much so i saw the I saw the interview with scott and and and the other two camps. Now there's the campuses gene. The fed is printing all this money. We're having all this deficit spending. We're gonna get a big inflation. Well sometimes that happens. But there's a lot of history and says that doesn't happen and i raised a different perspective. I say to get inflation. You need two things. You need rising labour income. Which is robust. We don't have that yet. We're in a recovery. But it's not robust yet. And the second thing is you need private sector credit multipliers. And that's the monetary piece. We don't have either so to create a lot of bank reserves. And they sit there and they're sterilized and the transfer payments coming from the federal government are not capital investments. But what they're doing is rigging gaps across the valley to keep people's surviving. I don't see the inflation sources. He had in place in i. I don't believe you you trigger inflation by looking at a change in an oil price. The federal reserve can't drill for oil. It's in monetary and banking multipliers and the multipliers. Aren't there yet and it doesn't look like you're coming so quickly to us all right david if inflation is not at least a near term concern here it seems like the bulls. Have you kind of the runway here. Given the backdrop. They're seeing the fed with potentially a reopening trait here. Where are you finding the best opportunities right now in the stock market. We think you have to be in it. You have to be where we're looking at. Maybe s and p five hundred earnings at around two hundred dollar level in recovery and trending upward in the bond. Market you you know. We favored the municipal bond sector The tax free bond yields and structure and the tax free market are ignoring part of the value of arbitrage in the us. tax code. I for one. Don't see how tax rates go down. They may stay the same or they may go up. But there's the value in the tax free sector. It has to be understood. It's a different kind of market than a corporate treasury on market. So we like that as well david. I want to talk for a moment about the kind of fraud that you're seeing and if it's worrying you because it is in your latest note you go through some state by state cases. Is it a concern you think or should we be focused on the bigger picture. No i think there's a serious concern about flaws in the state by state data and we see it in florida. Now it's gonna cost us state of florida millions to redo their unemployment system. We see it in ohio. We see california's arizona. We see bits and pieces everywhere. I published that piece. And i had a response from a friend and said we have two hundred people in our company who were advised that their initial claims were processed and none of them applied for it. The fact is there's a problem and the problem has two implications number one. How do you rely on data win. You know it's flawed and the flaws are changing so they're not consistent and number two. It gives fuel to the people who don't want to help people though the the ones who needed to get across the valley. So it's a problem needs to fix. Hey david thanks so much for joining us. We always appreciate chatting with kotok chairman and chief investment officer of coupling advisers also. The author co author of the book adventures in milan. We'll have more coming up. This is bloomberg just talking about tech stocks. Jerry talk about tech stocks and tesla when you think about tech stocks matt. One of our faves is a den is. He's the managing director equity research at wedbush securities. Dan thanks so much for joining us. Really timely here you've been you know very bullish on your tech sector for long time. You've been very right tech stocks Getting the short end of this rotation trade if you will. Let's step back in love you to share your thoughts on some of the big tech names which have been so good for so long that sector. Now it's great to be on it right now to white knuckle period would what you're seeing the ten year in the rotation trade and and you're seeing some of these crowded names hit the sell button but to me. This is short term. I believe tech stocks in those thirty percent this year. We are in the midst in the middle of what i've used the most. I year bull rally for tech stocks. And that does machines with forty fifth. Moving the tenure. So what kind of valuations do you think are healthy then because some of them are really high. I mean i guess it's not fair to look at earnings for tesla but a thousand times. Look i think right. Now the conundrum only say the quagmire for investors is how do you value five trillion dollars of growth over the next decade. And that's really what the easy market is of course right now. Tessa matthew weeden that mark. And i think that's that's the question right. Now you see by gestion period and of course valuations is going to be nice right here but to me. These are stocks that are gonna grow into their evaluation paso furton center and reread. Hire an i view. this is just. It's a ten percent pullback what we've seen it a lot of high griffin's anywhere from thirty to forty percent in paul i've you. This is golden buying our cheney intact. I think we probably get this. This could be our shot in terms of this year. Just checked in or vs. Folks is coming on strong. They're targeting a fifty percent share in china and the us by twenty thirty. Two targeting seventy percent ev share in europe. And they have you know seventy billion dollars to invest to make it happen. Yeah it speaks to gm's on. Mary and then they're dive into the deep. End the pool any these. But we're taught to you like. Do you like volkswagen now to me. I like gm in particular in terms of one. That's going to have success. I think volkswagen the key with them is what they're doing on the modular were build out of. Eds and they're quantum's gave ownership. I think that's kings from the battery technology. And i think the the we're talking about probably the most transfer michel opportunity that i've seen in twenty plus years covering tacking disruptive technology. All right dan. let's back away from the tesla navy. A little bit talk to us about five g. That's another big theme that we hear coming out of technology companies telecommunications companies. How should we be thinking about five g. And what are the names that you like. As a play on five g five g worse still probably in the first inning of his all building in china. They've been ahead but when you look at what's happening. Us from five g perspective. This is really building out the infrastructure from a telecom services perspective of next decade and our best five g play continues to be apple because of the super cycle. That's playing out in real time. And i think that's still going to be a three trillion dollar mark cap this year. And then you look at some of the supply chain please like qualcomm as well as across semi's which is why we're bullish on semi is as well just the overall sector with five. Jesus how in apple clearly the biggest beneficiary there. What do you think. I read a story today. About china laying cable that goes i think from pakistan than around the horn of africa and then up onto a beach in marseilles. It's going to deliver in one second. The ability to play ninety thousand net flicks movies. I mean just super fast internet. But i instantly thought wow. I wonder where the back doors are built in like cybersecurity. Must be a huge issue or right now. Cyber security continues to what we've seen push solar winds pack as well as across the board. This is probably the biggest team. Point facing enterprise in government today especially as more and more moved to the cloud. And that's why there's is the scale or a pow sale point cybersecurity dab basket that axons probably worn of most bullish ariza tacking captives companies could get acquired in terms of consolidation. It will step back. It's a fourth generation industrial revolution. Going on that's why would i will. In terms of the trillions spent. We tossed it depends on the table. Moment unpack despite some of the white knuckles that we're seeing in many bears who've been hibernation mode last year now calling fired or thou- theater so dan when you talk to institutional investors. I don't you don't visit them anymore. In this in this order in by any do lots of phone calls and things like that the dude just yet all clients don't do zoom. I'm guessing it's hard to get him on the phone. But dan what do they. What's the pushback you're getting from people. That maybe have changed their minds on tech and in fact have turned negative on tech. I think the push back is are you. Are you catching a falling night. Or the stocks are going to continue to move high down in terms of valuation. Rereading the other way and and what gives you that confidence and that's where i think going to start to see in terms of the fundamental saving street. Numbers move up another ten to fifteen percent this year. But i think what we're going to see over the next week. I believe we're going to have a massive bounce back intact and that's where you start to see some of the green lights and technical starts to improve but right now. I think that's the biggest worry. No one wants to be the first to jump into the pool in terms of this market as an awesome story the other day bill gates and the actor robert downey junior are investing in a company called turn tied. It's still small publicly traded yet but they make a motor that is able to produce the same amount of power as another electric motor thirty percent less electricity. It's not all about batteries right. There are other improvements that can be made in vs. it's a green tidal wave. That did that. I believe is going to happen. The us biden's ribbon especially with the blue senate and we're talking some that's gonna change the whole eco-system not just off the shore and really close the whole matches domestic but globally. And i think there's a massive impact here the coming years. That's why i just cost him with investors when you're playing leaving the basket. I think that this continues. Probably one of the most unique opportunities the sector that i've seen in decades help someone figures out a way for us to make a sweet noise like i like a good. V8 exhaust note. But i don't know if fake is going to cut it anyway. Dan thanks so much for joining us. Always a pleasure talking to you. Dan is managing director for equity research at wedbush securities. This is bloomberg jobs. Number came out today. The headlines were certainly impressive to seventy seven thousand jobs. Edit unemployment rate officially a ticking down yet again let's get a sense of what's going on at street level at the company level. We do that with tom. Gimmel he's a founder and ceo of lasalle network based in chicago lasalle network is one of the leading staffing and recruiting firms in the country. Tom thanks so much for joining us here again. That the numbers we got today. Were certainly certainly positive. What are you hearing and seeing from the clients that you talk to on a daily basis. Positives and understatement. I mean we should be throwing parties in the street like it's mardi gras. I'm with you. i'm as optimistic. That gets on this kind of stuff. But i didn't think it was going to be this big. And what i've been seeing is companies of all shapes and sizes nine hospitality. Non restaurant have been hiring. I didn't think we were going to get this bump until the weather really got good in april or may job numbers So this is really a a sign that the second third quarter are really going to be fantastic. Companies are hiring in all all levels of positions across the board right now. There is an awesome chart. Tom this morning showing that investors are really betting on summer vacation. At least here in europe and we don't even have vaccines that you guys have the stock six hundred travel and leisure index. just absolutely soaring. Do you think we're going to see business. Travel keep up with the trips. Were all planning down to new orleans for example i. I think that'll be the laugh. One at the last thing to come back. Actually because the the economy's gonna grow organically and the neatly in the second and third quarter because of the bat theme because of summer and hospitality coming back that business travel won't need businesses will think they don't need to do business travel for the second and third quarter and we'll start to see as eventually that's when the small scrappy companies put people on airplanes. Because they know that if they get running people they'll do be able to differentiate. I think it'll be a real emergence of the entrepreneurial company because they will travel and big companies to keep earnings. Being positive will pull back on tnt. Because that's where they met a lot of their profit numbers in twenty twenty. So tom again. The headline numbers were very good. You dig down a little bit deeper. There were some issues for concern. The african unemployment rate actually ticked up a little bit. What's the concern that as we come out of this pandemic and out of this jobless issue that it's going to be perhaps more unequal than many would like why i think what we're really gonna have well on on the racial issue you know as as you saw during the election cycle last year is as the former administration wanted to tout how great things were For minority hiring because of the a lot of the lack of education and poverty areas that that tends to be one of the laggards which is a shame i think an education forward-thinking administration should help that where i'm really concerned about Into the future is the white collar blue collar service level. Divide and what i mean by. That is what we've seen over the past year. Is that white collar. Jobs can be done remotely but obviously blue collars jobs plus truck drivers plus the cash register. Workers cannot and eventually whether you're black brown white orange or green. It doesn't matter. There's gonna be resentment of wire you working from home when i'm going into the factory every day or driving the truck and we're going to have some real sociological issues that go beyond gender and or race into deeper and deeper issues than that. That's going to be an interesting economic job problem that we face tom. What do you think about the minimum wage debate. It looks like it's done for now. And less commonly harris kind of jumps in does something last minute or the government's able to do something separately but it is it just too hard for people in middle america to imagine paying fifteen dollars an hour. How does it shake out. Yeah that's the problem. Is that federal minimum wage floor. And and i think too many people look at it as got gotta be making and it really is a geographic Issue should somebody in new york beginning. Fifteen in our baby should somebody in tulsa. Maybe not. And i think if they could compromise somehow it's become seven seventy five fifteen and nothing in between and maybe it's time for a ten or eleven dollars an hour. Minimum wage federally but most of the municipalities are drawing that line up anyways. And i think you're looking at small retail businesses. Listen i i work in downtown chicago. We have sundries slash convenience store in our lobby that was run by an indian immigrant for twenty years. He's out of business now and even if he could come back vacant he's been he's gone because nobody was coming into the office even if he could he couldn't afford to keep it running by somebody fifteen dollars an hour to work with so we've got real problems to think that that's what's gonna be the the the stagger to keep the economy going. You gotta get people working and help people and paying them. More isn't going to help the entrepreneur in the small business owner. It's gonna hurt him. Hey tom thanks so much. We appreciate that as always tom. Gimbal founder and ceo of lasalle network. Love talking to tom on these jobs days. Tom is matt. We've been talking to tom for a long time. He's been pretty consistently bullish on the whole labor situation in this country. Really confident that jobs would come back as the vaccines get into the marketplace. I think it's pretty fascinating. The point he made about travel. Paul you know big companies not only are being counter saying look. We made so much money cutting back travel. Let's keep it. Let's keep it down but you've got big. Hr offices also who were saying. Nah not yet. Let's let's wait a couple more weeks a couple more months because they don't want their employees getting infected. That's when the small businesses are going to be able to get a leg up. Yeah i think that's a good. That's a good point so light at the end of the tunnel. Is we like to say. I am here in berlin. Germany has said. It's loosening the lockdown. But you really can't do anything except for go to the barber which is no use to me and and go to the flower shop. It's weird isn't it. Those are the two things they open. Hopefully by the end of the month. They'll start opening my favorite stores and restaurants in the. Us many states are doing that. But is it a good idea. Let's bring in lawrence our right now from johns hopkins university where she is an associate professor of emergency medicine. Lauren connecticut now joining texas and mississippi in reopening the state lifting restrictions is it too. Soon i mean germany's like nowhere near that. I mean my personal opinion. And i think the opinion of many my colleagues is. It is a bit too soon. It sort of feels like we've put in all this hard work we've done on all of this staying home and wearing the masks and and participating in all these restrictions that have been challenging for everyone and we're watching all of that hard work potentially crumble Just because of a few Weeks of good number. You know we have a little bit more of a ways to go. And i think we were all sort of hoping that we would see. These states maintained for just a bit longer. Lauren chemists a sense of how things are on the ground we know. The headline numbers generally are are trending very much in the right direction in terms of vaccinations and so on but the johns hopkins university hospital in baltimore. How are things going. Yeah the numbers are definitely looking better. It's still you know everything has to be in context right so you still have to remember that while the numbers look good and they're going down it's still from very high place right so We had some of the highest numbers So far in the pandemic just a couple of months ago and so that downward trend is great to see but our hospitals are so stressed. We're still seeing patients with covid We have seen a couple of reinfection. And i think all eyes are on what happens over the next few weeks to a month. When as vaccine you know sort of trickled through through the state i mean the us is crushing it in terms of vaccines. You guys are up to almost two million vaccines a day right here in germany which is the largest economy in europe by the way. I don't know what's going on. Very good. at building. Cars and stuff. They vaccinated like forty eight people in the past couple of weeks. What is the us done in in that sense lorne. I think one of the things that has been done right in in distribution of vaccines is Really a push to make decisions to get back into people's arms so the second we get hands on vaccine we push it through these systems. It has been challenging because the systems are disconnected Felt sluggish at first but we leveraged a global certain national level infrastructure to really put vaccine into the hands of local vaccinators. And that's huge. So the next step are improving access to those hard to reach communities Which many would argue myself included. That should have been done up front but we have a lot more work to do To make sure that people who can't you know simply drive up to their hospital. Wait in line or wait on that computer to get that to get that appointment And walk in and get it safely. still have access so if they don't have technology access if they don't have someone who can transport them to get vaccine all of those things where we really need to focus right now but you're right where we're doing. We're putting a lot of vaccine into a lot of people here. I wanna point out if germany were nearly as efficient and smart about this as the us. If germany was vaccinating at the same rate as you we'd be done we would've vaccinated every single man and woman over the age of fifteen. I don't know if they're vaccinating kids anywhere but all of us would be finished if we had done in the us way. Yeah it's it's hopefully. You guys can get momentum. They're mad but lorne one of the concerns that we all had and we still have obviously is the folks that don't get vaccinations. They don't trust vaccinations in general and maybe particular. They don't trust this. A covert vaccination for variety of reasons. Are you having those conversations with those people in. And how are they going. Yeah absolutely. I think a lot of work is being done right now to improve. Vaccine conversation particularly in vaccine causes group and a lot of that means working with community members working with people from vaccine hesitant communities who Really can tell the story to the vaccine distribution planners and the the access personnel About why there is. And i think that hesitancy gets sort of convoluted when you additionally add access issues so those have to be addressed in tandem Making sure that communities that have high levels of hesitancy don't have high levels of inaccessibility So that as people come on board to getting back scene and they make their decision. Okay i'm gonna go get the sexiness. They should then be able to get the vaccine. And that is a huge piece of the puzzle because if you have them from moment to get vaccines. They may change their mind. If it's just too hard by the way i've been. I've spent the last year collecting masks. I've got do khadi masks b. m. w. masks. I've got grateful dead masks. Am i gonna be able to keep using these or are we going to be done pretty soon. I think we're gonna see masks in in various degrees of use for quite some time to come. I mean i think as we're seeing already in the us max that mask mandates or being Taken away but that doesn't mean you can't use them and so in circumstances where people may be. You may feel safe as an individual or you may be going to a place where you feel more vulnerable We can you'll be able to use those masters long as you want But i do think there'll be a reduction of math usage as we get more people vaccinated a lauren. Thank you so much. We always appreciate this weekly check in helping us. Stay as smart as we can on this topic lawrence our associate professor of emergency medicine at the johns hopkins school of medicine. I should note that the bloomberg school of public health support about michael bloomberg founder of bloomberg lp to empty thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews with apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter at matt miller. Nineteen seventy-three on false winnie. I'm on twitter at pt. Swinney before the podcast. You can always catch us. Worldwide at bloombergradio climate change. Is that the center of everything. Bloomberg green is at the center of solving it bags by powerful data and global newsroom. Bloomberg green is focused on solutions and the greatest opportunity of our generation bloomberg green solutions for a changing climate in partnership with general motors. j. l. and standard chartered visit bloomberg dot com slash green.
Former Citi Chair Rhodes on the Threats to Global Recovery
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. At bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I wanna get an old friend of mine. One of my favorite guests with whom whom. I haven't spoken with since i moved here. Bill rhodes joins us. He used to be the chairman of city and He wrote the book banker to the world. Which i read when i was a young buck in my thirties and then kathleen hayes introduced us. I was i was star. Struck a bit but I've gotten bill. Thanks so much for joining us. It's been it's been too long. Let me ask your take first of all in the situation. We find ourselves in now. It's so different than last time. I spoke to you. Donald trump hadn't even been elected and central bank balance. While the fed balance sheet was was only only at four and a half trillion dollars. And we weren't looking at any kind of stimulus beyond the hundreds of billions. We had tarp. Now we're looking at seven and a half trillion from the central bank or in the on the fed balance sheet and four and a half trillion. Now six and a half trillion in stimulus. What does that mean to you. Well first of all matt. It's great to be talking again after so long time. And congratulations on your family situation. Father and all of that I think When you take a look at the fed balance sheet before the great recession it was eight. Hundred billion went to four four point. Five point seven then they started tapering down. And now it's seven and a half as you point out to eight. Plus we have massive stimulus On the on the on the fiscal side with his new stimulus. Bill of of one point nine trillion. And so i think this is being replicated. Also in europe in china and japan and I think we're covering up the world economy and the us is supposed to grow at least six percent this year. Some people think six and a half seven some even say eight percent uh china sixty eight percent europe is a laggard but my concern is. We're seeing this tremendous searching reach for yield That every time. I've seen before causes problems because eventually the fed is going to have to tighten and the rest of the central banks of the world will have to and when you see tightening that means rates going up Because you have inflation starting to move from where it's been so low for the last few years So i my concern is where we're going to be two years from now if the fed doesn't start taking measures at some point in time so bill. How concerned are you. How concerned should we be about this debt. We are taking on. I mean we always talk about it and somebody's he's gotta pay back our kids our grand children. When does it become a real fundamental problem in your mind. Well i think right now. The government is doing what it has to do. And i'm a big admire of john. You heal it She's a friend and You know for the moment. That's fine. But i think we have to be realistic. If we continue this for another year eighteen months ago. I think we could get ourselves into real difficult situation already. The people's bank of china is talking about tapering down because they are in a bubble on the real estate area and they moved their estimates for this year's growth from eight to six percent because they realized they have to start cutting back. The real danger is that we don't cut back and two years from now. We face a real real problem with another blow up. I wonder about what what the poorer countries are looking at me. We talk a lot about obviously america because we lived there or in the or the west because we lived there. But you cut your teeth. In latin america. You ran the bank's business in latin america and africa. What do you think about these economies. That have it so much worse. What's going to happen to them. And is this inequality that already is. They're gonna gonna grow even further. That's one of my biggest concerns. Because i just came out with a piece of morning on vaccines for debt Because i am so concerned that there's not the financing really Purchase from the pharmaceutical companies. Enough vaccines doing to unoccupied eight. The emerging markets latin america africa parts of southeast asia and So he The emerging markets Always catch a cold here after we sneeze because what happens is that interest rates tend to go up. They have a lot of foreign currency debt. they have problems You know paying back Just think a latin american debt crisis when volcker raise interest rates and eighty eighty one eighty two and the financial crisis in the nineties. And other words. I've seen this movie with different subtitles too many times and hopefully The powers that be at the fed and on the fiscal side. Both here europe. China's i said already is talking about cutting back. Some japan do so because the ones who will suffer the most particularly after this horrendous You know covid vaccine problem that you're you're facing with the pandemic in the emerging world. I think too. Little attention is being given to financing these countries to buy a proper purchase of vaccines. Well i just want to make the point that it's not just that they're poorer and worse off. It's not just that they're struck by this disease and people die and as human tragedy bill but obviously that leads to social unrest. The likes of which you've witnessed all too often that leads to problems for the entire world. So it's not just localized say. Venezuela gets hit hard which they're definitely likely to do. It's not just venezuela's problem. It's everyone's problem without a doubt if we do not take care of supplying the funding for a through kovacs or whatever program world bank and your american development bank or my suggestion of debt for vaccines the already Problem economies of the emerging markets are gonna get horrendous. So i am most concerned bill. Talk to us about your plan for vaccines and debt for vaccines. What just gives a sense of that. What you mean by that well I helped put together the original schemes of debt-for-equity Won the latin. American debt crisis took place. And then years later you had debt for nature. You know you had also a debt for health and and basically what it is is. The pharmaceutical companies agreed to accept Local currency debt To provide the vaccines and then they take the local currency either invested in the country If they have if they have an operation there or the sell it to somebody on the open market where they just decide to keep it. And this will i think Also enlarge the program of kovacs which the g twenty governments put forward and the work of the international financial institutions. But we've got to do it now. We can't just wait because as we all know We may cover You know vaccines here. In the united states and in europe and in china and japan. the world is Is now in a situation like it wasn't in you know in nineteen eighteen nineteen and twenty in the sense of travel. And if you have this problem exist in one part of the world. It'll migrate to another so we must look at this as an international problem. Not just as a domestic problem. And that's what really concerns me here. All right bill. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate that as always. It's great to check up with you check in with you. Get your latest thoughts particularly as relates to latin. America bills. Got so much experience bill rhodes. He's a presidency of. William r rhodes global advisors former chairman of citibank and man. I love talking to bill. His perspective is just extraordinary. His experiences is unparalleled and we will give them. Book bankers the world. I can't recommend reading that enough and he also wrote an op. Ed with stuart mcintosh who heads the g thirty you can check that out on project syndicate dot org. Yeah and he just brings up a really key issue about latin america trying to emerging markets in general trying to get them their doses. Talk about something near to my heart and that is tacos in germany. I make tacos almost on a weekly basis. So it's not super easy to get everything you need for it but I've got a speciality food store. Oddly it's an american food store. And i guess tacos mexican. I'm not sure. Let's ask somebody who knows jason kappa. Sola joins the ceo of del taco. Chasing let me first start by asking. What the pandemic was like for for you and your franchisees and what the outlook. What's the outlook now. Hey well thanks john. John john john jason. All right i wasn't going to correct you. But i'll take it. Don't just roll with it. You know something wrong. You can correct me. John kappa solar junior. All right. well. I'll take it Let me tell you talk about the pandemic a little bit. Obviously it was a challenging operating environment for everyone We were really proud of our team here. At del taco restaurant teams are our franchisees or support center staff and and really How we success successfully continue to navigate through a really challenging environment. That is you know that many of us have not had to face in our lifetime. So you know. We leaned into our core values and made sure our employees and guests felt comfortable through through our trusted and safe initiatives and and we continue to operate through our drive. Throughs are takeout capability and we also had a channel and delivery. Delivery that was rapidly expanding. I mean delivery grew three to four times during the pandemic so plenty of service modes and options for consumers to access the brand. We tried to take advantage of all of them. Even though our dining rooms were closed down we were able to get back to positive. Same store sales growth in q three and q four really sorry franchise business which represents a larger geographic footprint for us around fifteen states accelerate sequentially from q. Three to four and that mid single digit range and actually finished their eighth consecutive euro-positive positive. Same store sales growth so from an outlook perspective. And i look at twenty twenty one. We talk about continuing to grow our same store sales in our av's through our five drivers of of acceleration that we've outlined and and Having modest you know restaurant contribution margin expansion It out that will lead to growth in twenty twenty one john talked. I know you have a lot of exposure to the state of california and california's really aggressive shutting down restaurants. So i'm guessing. That was good news for the del tacos of the world. You know fast food or drive through business taught us how much that was a tailwind for you during the pandemic and to what extent a headwind going forward sure. Yeah there's definitely puts intakes in regards to that dynamic and california where we have. The heavy operating footprint clearly was very restrictive and we saw as we talked about on our earnings call Markets in california counties in california that were very restrictive where we're still running on the company side of the house negative Same store sales in q four and despite that we were able to overcome through performance and all of our other markets You know positive. Same store sales in q four on the company business and Clearly stated franchise has been very positive for some time now over a broader geographic footprint. So so we we feel good about how. We're positioned moving forward. Listen there will be a dynamic shift here as as Obviously vaccines get out and guess feel a lot more comfortable getting back out and about and being more active and and and and we think that's a good thing overall i mean when you think about Folks returning to school on a more regular basis day in day out going to work you know. Movie theaters opening backup normal activities. Starting to happen in the environment around us. That is a great thing for all restaurants and specifically for quick service restaurants. I think about that from the standpoint of value inconvenience the convenience that people need when they're on the go is pervasive in our category. We deliver on that. And then obviously i guess always need good value. So i think we're well positioned to how how sticky the behavior we've learned through the pandemic is going to be after you have a new store design fresh flex which i guess takes advantage of a panic situation rights. It's much easier to drive through. you've got two lanes. It's much easier to have third party deliver. You've got a special area for that station for third party. Pickup is this gonna stick. Do you think fresh flex is going to be more successful in places than your typical and your traditional restaurant. Listen i. I think that it needs to be a portfolio approach and the great thing about The silver lining. I should say that occurred through. This pandemic is that guests really and consumers. Figure it out. They you know adopted technology use technology to access the brands that they love or they could and Certainly with the growth and delivery and off premise in our category that was pretty evident so fresh flex definitely takes advantage of that and integrates technology well throughout our prototypes but the bigger piece is as we leaning towards franchise growth across the country We'll be able to offer our active developers really a portfolio menu venues initiative. That we call it where you can build restaurants from from twelve hundred square foot driver. Only buildings all the way up to a standard build out dining room and That gives you more access to real estate and gives you the opportunity to be a bit more entrepreneurial. In the way that you're thinking about build out we think that matches the environment from a consumer and a real estate perspective. Hey john thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate your thoughts here. John kappa sola junior. Ceo of del taco publicly traded company on nasdaq great symbol. T. a. c. o. We talked last hour about the taco business. Now we're talking barbecue and the reason we're talking barbecues because the great state of texas is reopening fully. Today no mask mandate anymore. What does that mean for business and life in texas in a better place to talk about it then. Lexington texas bringing talked to carry bexley carries. The owner of snows barbecue some infamous famous barbecue lexington texas. I looked at my google maps matt and again lexington texas is literally equally between austin texas and college station so just extraordinary kerry. Thanks so much for joining us here. I'd love to get your thoughts. On what the reopening move in your state of texas what that's gonna mean for your business. Well we're we're taking it pretty slow workout skeptical of a few things and again hopefully blessed to get back to normal activities at some point but Again we're just kinda taking it slow in your changes at of time. I'm worried about your pitmasters. Let's see is he's got to be four eighty five years old and She's got to be one of the most famous pitmasters now in the world. How she how. She survived through covid. She's continued to kind of operate. It normal again The social distancing in the mask wearing. She's done that and again. A lot of our reactions Stamps from her and a couple of other employees that are including myself. That are on up in age but She's she's doing great. She's like you said she's eighty five or eighty six here. I think in april and Man and we we just want to clone her and and more that can can keep going like she does but again. That's the reason we're like. I said some of our precautions. Were taking it slow and not just gonna flip the switch over night and and draw guard. How's it. how's it gonna work here. I mean you only open on saturdays anyway. So you've got to worry about one day a week. You open eight ish. Eight o'clock right. Do you tell people they have to stay six feet away from each other. Only letting people in with masks even though they're allowed to come in without a mass like what are you doing of our line. We don't regulate it very very closely. I mean everybody uses her own best judgment but once we enter our building and again. We're we're pretty smaller quarters or pretty tight when you enter the building or order and get your barbecue. It's massacre required. And we're going to continue to to leave that in place at this. Damn i mean everybody's kind of adapted we've had no problems Again the barbecue family is just a second to non as far as good quality people. We haven't had any. You know like i said any red flags or any problems with that and we're gonna leave that in place at the south kerry tell us about how your business was impacted. We've been twelve months into this pandemic here almost to the day here sense of how your bis changed march of last year. Well it was just kind of overnight. Switch you know i. We were real curious to see what kind of crowd we would have. And and it was just overwhelming. How good it was when it first hit and then wife and i got to talk in in our schools that shut down and everything and and ninety. Five percent of our clientele is out of country out of state out of town. And you know with our school shut down. We didn't want to be bringing the people in our town so at that time we made the decision to close In march of last year and we were closed completely from march until november Always focused on was our own line shipping it increased. We were fortunate enough to have that already in place since. Two thousand nate and it increased dramatically really. And you know it was almost a christmas rush again had a revamp and able to keep up and It's been that way kinda the whole time or online business picked up and does what. I want to hear about that ever carry. I want to hear about that. I know that i know that. In the past you've had customers who fly in from hong kong just to get your barbecue. That's no joke so but now you have an online business. And i how that has a developed. I mean i'm looking at. Your website snows barbecue dot com and just thinking about ordering a little brisket myself out here. And i'm in berlin wall again. It has been like. I said we were blessed already. Have that in place being a one day. A week Then you we. We had to have a place to go in order. We had anything left from day. One and that's why. Put the shipping in place and again from the pandemic kid it just Increase in our our feedback and a lot of our customers. I mean i don't know the percentage exactly but repeat customers that order on a regular basis. I mean we we manage just like we do on saturdays quality as our our main concern and customer service and like i said we're not not real large we're also on go belly which you can get the same thing on our website but It's been great I mean it's Far as quality when you re warm it in new york you'd lose very little and you know back to what you said our customers from all over the world and that is that's the case every saturday. It's kind of like a festival one day a week. I mean we have people from all over the world every saturday and we're just truly blessed and like i said the pandemic has hit does but we've been fortunate enough to make some changes and and handle it quite well. Well we wish you. The best carries on the best to your family and to tootsie down there and everybody in lexington as well. I'm so glad that you've survived and come out stronger on the other side of this. Well hopefully we get to the other side of this carry. Bexley there who runs snows barbecue voted. The best barbecue in texas and texas is a big state. So that's a very very big deal to jean chan's ainhoa bloomberg politics contributor. He's also a professor at iona to talk a little bit about this couple of trillion dollars were about to pump into the us economy. Jean what do you think. I mean my first question about this. Beyond where should they send. My check is is it going to be inflationary or are the deflationary forces so strong right now that we shouldn't be worried about that. I love how you said. Just a couple. Trillion dollars giver takes. Just a few and i think that's really you know part of what we're all just looking at today. Which is it's difficult to tell people the size of this thing. I think one point that really struck with me is that the watson institute had out a piece which said we spent in twenty years on the war on terror five point four trillion in the last year including this bill we spend six trillion on corona virus alone on this pandemic and so this is the largest standalone stimulus package in american history. Obviously so it's unprecedented in a biden arguably fifty fifty first day in office. But to your point that is the big question in the big debate is is this thing going to trigger inflation and i don't think we know we've heard some people even democrats say that it could and other people push back like janet yellen for instance. So i don't think we know if it just fills out the outpost gaps. It's going to be okay but if it does trigger inflation jerome powell has said he can deal with it you know. I think we have to take a wait-and-see attitude on that at this point all right so gene from a political perspective. What does it mean that this bill is likely to be passed and signed probably today into law strictly on party lines. No bipartisanship whatsoever. It means that despite the fact that six or seven out of ten americans including majorities of republicans said they support this bill. The republican party is hanging together and saying not so fast. And we heard liz cheney and other say the big problem here. Is that ninety percent of this bill. According to republicans has nothing to do with fighting the pandemic or restoring the economy. So they will point you to things. And i do think they have a point to a certain extent like the expansion of the aca. These have been longtime progressive democratic of wishes. They've been able to do that under this bill. It may according the cbo increased by about ad about one point. Seven million more to the insurance rolls. That's something democrats have wanted. And it's fascinating to me. When republicans have made this charge about them. Democrats have said yet and so what we absolutely are fulfilling our wishlist of things. So you know this. Bill has been so popular. Democrats are happy to run it. And we're gonna see. Joe biden out there tomorrow night. With his first address to the nation he has an obviously and fifty days. As you guys know better than i do even done a press conference yet. But i think we're going to see him out doing something like that in the next few days as well gee and he can do whatever he wants. They can do whatever they want. Now you know. I got about the other side i mean. Of course there was. Talk about unity at the inauguration. But there's nothing unity about this. They're gonna roll over the republicans does it matter. It does matter and it matters not just for people who don't like the bill it matters for democrats not only the joe biden promised bipartisanship. But it's a fifty fifty senate. You can't get anything done outside of reconciliation without ten republicans. And that's the big problem for him. Look he's talking about you. Know something around two three trillion dollar bill back better programs including infrastructure. It's unclear if he can do that on reconciliation. Maybe he can't but if he doesn't he's going to need republicans and so my big question is does he bring them on early and move it through with them or does he. Sort of put it on their lap and save supported. Or don't we can go ahead without you but we're talking about another huge spending bill if not more and that's not even mentioned immigration voting rights and the labor law. That was passed yesterday. Are you surprised. let's talk about that. You need some of the other legislation that this administration to get done probably sooner rather than later and you mentioned a few areas. Is it surprising to you that with a president. That's been so many years in the senate. Nobody knows the senate and it's working better than joe biden presumably then. Of course the vice president who was just came out of the senate presumably has those current relationships. Are you surprised that they haven't been able to get any bipartisan support. For this bill. I am not surprised because no matter how much joe biden or to your point kamala harris know and understand the senate and they do bite an arguably better than any president. We've had in recent history. We have a structural divide in our system which makes it very very tough for any president to get bills through congress but particularly even when their party controls but this narrow control of fifty fifty makes it that much tougher so i think my surprise was the other day when jen psaki said the president is not supporting still the filibuster reform or getting rid of the filibuster. I was a bit surprised. She said that. Because i'm not sure how he intends to achieve the rest of this. Mammoth program he has promised to the american public in the absence of that kind of reform. Well i you only want to get rid of the filibuster while you're in power right. Well that's the day that you did it absolutely true. Be careful what you wish for. That's the kind of thing that they would feel pretty bad about if they lost. Yes great talking to help. We can have you back on again soon. Gene chen zeno. There is a professor at iona so you can take her class if you go there. Also bloomberg politics contributors. You can read her column if you've come here it's going to be so fascinating to see how this plays out when it gets to the infrastructure part. Yeah that's going to be the big one mad. I mean that's going to be You know bigger numbers presumably it's infrastructure. So it should have some bipartisan support. Doesn't everybody like having bridges and tunnels built in their district. You would think so but we'll have to. We'll certainly have more on that coming up. This is thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews with apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter at matt. Miller nineteen seventy-three fall. Sweeney all twitter at pt. Swinney before the podcast. You can always catch us. Worldwide at bloombergradio. Climate change is at the center of everything. Bloomberg green is at the center of solving it bags by powerful data and a global newsroom. Bloomberg green is focused on solutions and the greatest opportunity of our generation bloomberg green solutions for a changing climate in partnership with general motors. J. l. l. and standard chartered visit bloomberg dot com slash green.
Small Caps Still Have Room To Run: George Young (Podcast)
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. And at bloomberg dot com slash podcast tech leading the way today. Kind of bringing that discussion point up about you know as with these markets atr near all time highs. Hattie a play it from here. Do you stick with some of those tech names that have been the drivers really since the end of the financial crisis. Were you in that. Rotation trade george young partner and portfolio manager at hillary and company. He joins us. George thoughts there the rotation trade into cyclicals into smaller caps. That has been a great trade for a lot of investors. Where do you stand on that. Portion of the market vis-a-vis some of the the big growth stocks. But we think small cap stocks here villain coming still have a good way to run There's been a huge rotation as you pointed out in the beginning in the fourth quarter of last year and it's extended here into the second quarter of this year. We see that people don't have that many options you've got ten year government bonds at one point six percent that's not overly attractive in the face of inflation. You've got cash yields about zero when you've got real estate that's pretty expensive. You can see that in a news left and right so we think the stock market and especially small and mid cap stocks for the way to go even know anytime you mentioned bonds might ears will perk up. You mentioned a one point. Six doesn't really look attractive especially in the facial face of inflation. We've comments from ray delio coming out as well saying he'd rather own bitcoin than a bond. Do you agree well. That's getting a little far afield. Bitcoin owners are going to have their day at some point It's amazing because a lot of questions that field or from a call them novice investors and this is very very reminiscent of the internet bubble. Back in two thousand two thousand one. A lot of people have not been in the market for some time. they say. I want to get invested. How about that doggy coyne. How about bitcoin. And that's what everybody wants and You know you've got to be very careful when you start here. Newly minute investors getting something. We're not really sure it's sort of like the old adage about poker games if you don't know who the patsy is at the table patsy. Maybe you george. I was in the market during that when the bubble burst the tech bubble burst in two thousand and it was not fun and it took a long time for nasdaq to retraced retrace that but boy he step back and you take a look at some of the mean stocks. Take a look at specs and had a run. They had late last year into early this year. And you look at the valuations of the snp at twenty three. I mean you could draw some you know some very close analogies between now and then are you concerned that this market is is frothy this to use a technical term. Yup that's a good technical term. I liked that one We've got about fifteen percent cash right now for our clients and our mutual funds of the balanced fund and villa. React whitman. it is it is and we're long term investors so Again measure our long-term attitude and the fact that we have discretion to invest where we want the fact we've got fifteen percent cash that means that we're not finding that many things we wanna buy. We've got the liberty of not having to invest if we shouldn't invest We got loyal clients. Who was in with us for some time. We were founded in one thousand nine hundred eleven so the clients we have trust us. And if we don't want to buy something we don't buy so this is more cash than normal so yes froth is Entirely appropriate term to use this moment. I think why would it take for you to put that in cash to work We need to see some cheaper evaluations. At the end of the day stocks should and usually do but not always on objectives metrics pe ratio p ratios need to come down off their aberrations in the stock market where individual stocks or individual sectors cheap. And that's when we're prepared to go ahead and buy So we have the cash. We've gotta be ready Another hate the dwell on old adages but when the ducks quacking you gotta feed them. Bars wanna buy go ahead and sell. What are some names right. Now that you guys do laker you are doing some work on short. Sure sure Well some that we own and we buy some more of if they become a little bit cheaper One of those is e healthy. Health offers medicare supplement insurance You may have heard their ten thousand. Plus americans turning sixty five each day. Each of these will be entitled to medicare but they need to get medicare supplements. Which aren't that expensive. But they are fairly complicated. So e health is good at navigating the waters of explaining complicated terms and complicated needs and to make sure that the right packages put together for a resident of texas versus idaho and to make sure that the doctors that you're comfortable with our part of your package so little bit complicated but we think it's a relatively cheap stock and then as an added interesting point there a couple of activist investors who have gotten involved in the company recently so that should make for an interesting Few months ahead. What about this payments processor. I see here pie. Abberley looking at credit card data checks right by is probably unknown and again we buy small mid cap stocks. We buy relatively unknown companies Their top twenty processor in the united states the number six in e commerce. They've got one hundred thousand customers two thousand different partners and they processed thirty three billion last year. Now they just make a minimum amount of money on that amount that they process last year but the fact that they are unknown. We like fact that they're very well. Organized well managed. We'd like think they can go with something. Like twenty percent per year it remains a cheap stock but it is you know one of the small cap stocks. It's not for the fearless. There will be some volatility. George thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate getting your thoughts on the markets and on some names here that might be of interest for folks in the small to mid cap world george partner and portfolio manager at villarreal and company. In interesting fifteen percent cash. that's the highest percent. I've heard any money manager. Come on here and talk about. But i've increasingly lot of profit taking in the last few weeks. Paul and you need a better entry point. And he mentioned it's hard with valuations with stocks and bonds. One sixty two. How do you buy that after exemption exactly so we'll have to see but fifteen percent. That's a big allegation. This is bloomberg several weeks ago. President joe biden pitched the first major set of tax increases since one thousand nine hundred ninety three another signs that maybe some anxiety is forming within congressional democrats. Not just on the republican side. Let's get the latest on that lord davidson. She's a congressional tax reporter. Large a sense here of how this going and it's kind of tied in with infrastructure but boy. The discussion is really focusing on the tax plan. Where are we right now. The point where biden has put out basically his plans and then has kicked over to congress for them to actually sort of put meat on the bones and write them out in legislative language. And this is what's starting to cause some angst and congress. 'cause they're looking at sort of the outline that the president put out and then trying to figure out. How do we make this work. So they're going and they're talking with with different members of the committee they're talking with stakeholders holding public. And they're asking you know what if we did this. What if we did that. And some of the ideas. They're throwing out. There would weaken a little bit. What biden has proposed. So they're kind of looking at. What is politically possible. What can get done. And specifically with an eye and members like joe manchin and cinema knowing that those are going to be critical votes in the senate even in the house where the broader majority. They still have to to know that. There's bigger political realities out there. Yeah what do you hear about the republican side. I've heard a few different proposals. Six hundred billion nine hundred billion a one point seven trillion. Where are we on the counter proposals and the realism of that. So infrastructure talks really. Hit a speed bump Late last week We're biden put out a proposal. One point seven five trillion down from his original two point two five trillion and republicans. Felt like he. He didn't concede that there wasn't enough of a back and forth negotiation going on You know we're in kind of the the last week before memorial day which is kind of considered the initial informal deadline to reach some sort of In you know high level top level. bipartisan deal. It looks like that can slip and we could still be kind of where we are in a couple of weeks from now biden wants to deal but the two sides really so far apart so our is fiscal stimulus and the tax plan. Are they linked. Can one go proceed without the other expenses. How that's developing. Well there's many different permutations of of what could happen here but the thing to know is. If there's a bipartisan infrastructure appeal it will not be funded by these tax increases. That biden has laid out. Republicans have said look. That's a red line for us. They're looking at other funding mechanisms whether it's user fees whether it's looking at bonds whether public private partnerships other ways to get money that aren't tax increases but are either cognizant that one of two things will happen if one these bipartisan talks fall apart and then they can move forward with the democrats only bill which will include bipartisan tax increases or two they do get some sort of smaller you know a couple of hundred billion dollar infrastructure deal with republicans and then they go back And they can do the rest of the biden. Four trillion dollar agenda which also include tax increases so. Really kind of no matter what happens. Tax increases are still on the table. It just depends kind of how quickly they move how much they'll need and what it will be paying for interesting. What is the pressure to get it done this year and not next year in a midterm election incredibly high You know basically everyone You know is wanting to get a deal done this year. This is informally seen as as a deadline. But you know it could slip till january february but once we start getting into the summer. Everyone's in campaign mode and passing a tax increase would be seen as a political a big a big mistake. Laura i think about president biden forty years in the senate granted they were many many years ago and i think out kamala harris just coming out of the senate are they going to have any ability to kind of work their magic and trying to get something through here. Ores assist too much opposition know. They really hope that they can. This is one of the reasons that you know the biden campaign. On one of the reasons he picked harris as his vp But you know there are really just a handful of senator. So it's really not looking at you. Know how do we get some a you know. A broad coalition together you know. How do we get two or three or four senators who are inclined Tough reelections ahead of them. Who have states that you know favorite trump or lean red you know. How do we get them personally on board. So that's looking at for you mentioned. How do we get a coal miners. Trained into new jobs for cinema. You know how do we sort of moderate some of these these tax increases. It's really specific versus a broad So on these these next steps. What can we look forward to you mentioned. We're coming up on memorial day one. Could we start to see a re invigoration perhaps of some of these discussions accessible season back and forth between republicans and democrats this week You know on if there's still momentum behind deal or if these talks just fall apart. That is also a possibility this year. We're also waiting to see from the senate parliamentarian who will basically rule about you know how democrats could proceed with eight with partisan bill on their end. Those will be kind of key points to watch for if not this week next week and then i don't really set the course for what the summer and fall looks like. What else is congress working at all. We hear about is infrastructure and taxes. Not that they're not huge issues but you're congressional reporter other other things going on that we should be paying attention to. There are other little things going. There's a lot of talk right now. And this really inflamed the partisan tensions and congress. Is this Doing a commission to investigate the january six attack on the capital. This narrowly passed the house last week. The senate is set to pick this up but Republicans even who initially said they were on board for supporting that have have since backed away. this is really a setting up. A lot of ill will between the two parties and doesn't bode well for doing something on a bipartisan basis. When it comes to economic policy all right thank you so much we appreciate that getting the update on all things happening in washington and we can do that because we have reporter who focuses on congressional tax issues. I mean nobody else has that. I can't imagine lord davidson congressional tax reporter for bloomberg news and again. It seems like it's going to be very difficult for president Abide from what. We're hearing from the reporting to get what he wants here. And there's got to be a significant compromise and you think about it you know. It's the first major set of tax increases since one thousand nine hundred ninety three. That tells you something about how difficult it is to raise taxes for administration wondering shinola bassett. She's a wall street reporter for bloomberg news. She joins us live. I said live and the bloomberg interactive brokers great to have everybody back together again sonali. Let's talk back here again. I mentioned earlier. That dave wilson would come in. Every day i stock reports and have to talk about three or four specs coming public and things like that. It's kinda petered out a little bit. But they're still out. There aren't they and they're still doing deals. There are certainly still out there and there is still a hope that once the rules get clarified. That they'll come back again and they'll be a great way for people to go public but right now there are a lot of questions around how investors are paid inspects the performance of them and then also all of the disclosures that come around specs for new people to really start investing in these companies. That are really that are really young right. They're really not mature companies. That are surefire things to succeed in public market. Is there a sense that the performance will turn around. Was the shakeout of some of the big highflyers seemed to breakdown. Was that as. Paul had said earlier a healthy correction or indicative of something more sinister that we haven't been understanding the way these work what i can give you. Taylor is the view from investment bankers right so from investment in front of you. It's good that the market has cooled down. Why because it was probably overheated companies. That shouldn't have gone. Public have been going public that brings down the average overall when it comes to performance and so it cooling down is not a bad thing. So what's happening in congress today. There's actually something kind of tangible here. They're really looking to rewrite the rules regarding to the securities act of nineteen thirty three thousand nine hundred eighty four exchange ninety four to add specs when it comes to forward looking statements in terms of their financial performance. So what they're really trying to do is rewrite the rules here to make it easier for the investor to know how well that company will do when it goes public but the specs that are still out there. They're out there and they're still able to deals right. Yes but the sec. Which is another kind of aspect of this. Today's congress we're looking at the securities exchange commission is looking at all those fax and saying. Okay wait a minute. Maybe we really need to treat you differently in terms of how you've already been doing your accounting so that is also spooking. Some people right. What does that mean for the supply side. As i think paul was alluding to of you create this regulatory overhang now non. Anyone can come assault wild west anymore so if you have skeletons in your closet. You're not gonna wanna do us back now. That is that is that is the bottom line if you have financial performance. That's or if you think you're making statements that are probably a little too rosy Everybody's got an eye on you from lawmakers to that see so you're probably going to want to not go public that way but but we still have a whole bunch of these facts out there. And they're all sitting there with dry powder. And i guess it was when we saw some of these celebrities and athletes start to and it seemed like they were just lending their name to the specs. Maybe create some interest me on the first day of trading get a pop and i suspect that might have been one of the things that got regulators attention. Yes and that's certainly true. But let me give you the flip side of this too and this is why i think there will be toned out but not a complete clampdown all. These famous people are investing in stocks. Anyways these folks are all already investing in high flying unicorns or starting their own jessica alba. Today we wrote a story about leonardo di caprio and orlando bloom. going on their. They're they're backing. This financial technology company and neil bank aspiration that is looking to go public either through an ib hours. That's a long story. Short is they're already in the venture. Markets backs are another form of venture capital. What is the new cool way now. Did we go back to direct listings. We go back to traditional. Ipo's did oatley last week. Do an ipo. That was one that we've been following exactly so to your point. Ipo's are still the hottest game in town. There's still tons of ipo's even though we were talking about specs There were more than twice the average of the last ten years going public and last year alone so this is good. Why is good because before we saw so many companies like for example wait forever to go public and then by the time of retail investor gets involved. It's very late in the game. So shouldn't they have the opportunity to invest in more young companies. The question is how young and the question is what kind of information to have to make an informed decision about that company you compare the the disclosure from us back to the disclosure for an ipo. When i was reading up here prospectuses. They were about you half an inch thick. Because i had to to the printers all night and make sure everything was perfect now. They're you know three four inches and you get the all the disclosures for a company to go public. Vn ipo that makes backs and direct listings. Maybe a little at least from that perspective a little bit more attractive. Let's just one. Oh one here you. Everyone should be picking up if you're going to invest if you're a retail investor you want to invest in ipo. They're hot right now. Go to the risk factors go to the risk factors and go to the financial analysis and see if that company is actually doing any well. I think that one of the earliest piece of advice. I got from a good investor in the day was when you get a perspective. The first place you go to is related transactions. That's a good. One risk factors have gotten so boilerplate. The related transactions and. Now they're fifty pages long. We may have a pandemic stuff but you go to the related transactions and that we get to see some if there's anything funky in terms of a we're paying this person this company this company that and there's these off balance sheet or kind of transactions. That's where they pop up so anyway that's just a little lesson learned. I guess schmolly thank you so much. We appreciate getting all things wall street. We're talking about specs today. Congress is holding a hearing on specs. Things might be changing in that market looking on my g. l. c. o. Go that's a global commodities page. Brings up everything you need to know about commodities pricing the metals year i see double digit gains most of the medals with one notable exception spot gold kind of flat on the year. Let's break it all down as we talk precious metals. We do that with everett. Precious metal specialist at gainesville coins. Every thanks so much for joining us here. Love to get your thoughts again. We see see a lot of positive momentum in the metal space here again. Exception is gold. Give us your thoughts on that precious metal so it does appear that gold has been in this consolidation pattern for a while. But i think it is poised to break out of that and resume a more gradual grind. Higher prices really just climbed too far too fast in the early part of the pandemic. And so i think we're seeing that kind of shake out and normalize. This is the first time that gold is traded above. Its two hundred day moving average since early january and the fact that the us dollar is a bit softer today. also helps But i think much will depend on what we're hearing out of the fed The rhetoric has certainly turned toward a tapering of asset purchases and the potential that will see interest interest rates rive sooner than anticipated. But i think it's a reasonable assumption that given the unprecedented nature of the post pandemic recovery. The fed and other central banks are gonna remain accommodative and so long as rates stay suppressed and inflation continues to rise Old comedy that will be good for. Gold is gold still in negatively correlated asset to bitcoin when it comes to price and flows. It certainly seems that way the past month or so the two markets have gone opposite directions and anecdotal anecdotally. I have heard quite a bit of confirmation of that. Those those flow trends from crypto traders that When there is a sell off in the crypto market that money flows into gold and vice versa. And i think the reasoning behind it is pretty straightforward that these are seen as alternative markets to equities and Other more traditional assets. So i think that that trend will probably continue until we see greater maturation in the crypto market. Where there is less of this panic selling all right. So in terms of the crypto market and as it relates to the gold here we've seen some extraordinary volatility in bitcoin eighteen percent decline yesterday. A rebound. Today we've seen these double digit moves almost on a daily basis from this currency. What are your thoughts on bitcoin. Here is is the volatility preventing it from becoming perceived as a real store value. Absolutely i do think that's the case Not only the volatility discouraging to More mainstream investors but these big price swings create network congestion Create higher transaction fees when trading cryptos and the fact that so many of these coins prices are highly correlated to one another all of that makes it less attractive to regular investors. There's just different risk assessment that goes on there and one other thing i think this reveals is that despite all the talk we hear in the crypto space about diamond hands and hobbling The behavior of crypto traders does speak to some inexperience that they haven't seen these big up and downs and markets and The panic selling those remain a feature. I do think that that is one of the major obstacles to more mainstream adoption. Go on over with us to some of the other metals that we've been watching iron ore steel copper china coming out with some big comments overnight. Seeing that it's trying to target speculators hoarders deal get the sense that within the commodity space a lot of this has been based on fundamentals and future growth or some of these crackdowns that we see overseas. I think the crackdowns are mainly to blame. In this case We have seen some lack of infrastructure growth and some uneven manufacturing numbers that could speak to the fundamental starting to shift more to the negative for commodities. But i think it is very telling that beijing has stepped in Commodity inflation is a big negative for a lot of the consumers though. A lot of countries are importing. These things so i think that the from the policy standpoint That is one of the major factors driving this. Because i've we've seen inflation has been mostly occurring across the board but especially in the commodity space. Hey ever let's just talk quickly about gold here. I know there's scarcity of physical silver boy on It gold's up slightly year today. What your thoughts on I'm sorry on silver Right yes What's interesting is that I think silver at the greatest upside among all the medals because not only does it combine some robust demand from various industries. But it is rising as an alternative to gold and in terms of physical bouillon The royal mint in the uk saw a five hundred percent increase. Year-on-year it's over bar sales and it doesn't help that. The one in bullion market association overstated silver inventory recently by over a hundred million ounces. The the idea isn't that silver itself. The raw resource is is scarce but yes the refined finished product. Silver polling is rather scarce. And it's just difficult to find on the market right now so that is driving prices higher ever. Thanks so much for joining us. Goes appreciate getting your thoughts on these precious metals every moment precious metals specialist four gainesville appoint. Thanks for listening to bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter. At matt miller nineteen seventy-three and i'll fall swinney. I'm on twitter at sweeney before the podcast you can always catch us. Worldwide at bloombergradio. This year could be a critical moment for climate finance. How far has wall street come. In addressing net zero transitions. How is interest in sustainability driven fixed income investment. Join bloomberg live in a monday on may twenty fifth for the future of sustainable investing a decisive year for es g to hear from senior industry leaders as they discuss how financial services are planning to fight global warming visit bloomberg dot com slash is stable investing radio to learn more.
346. El podcasting feminista y el feminismo en el podcasting por @BornToBePank
"Nephew podcast cinta. I load to let me off on a up. A custody india unpredictable and they came in utah orla so he got either in benita. I little other than microphone. Women will study. I let us hold allow bill of podcast commit elephant minister quadra think netapp luxy mom into so what i meant it and this podcast episode. Ufm you stop the consumer echo. You're through these three within. But i got publico said to me and tennis with sinus. That that administers both guys. That yeah clara koskoff minister none of this could not those exclusive. Chris knows i see and does either. Book another thirty multiple ghesquiere people self-management familiar standard. A famous apple gasket does meet them. Bylaws for ministers is more than explicit that iki that the they the people are sorority that equal to boston. Don't gondola some basketball internet. Como la politica Study will wrap up owing wholesome issa. Balladur's pussycats clara explicit. tacoma feminist. Sell highly for me to be able to come at an owner's ailing inclusive of them is really that i'm chris. Persona this then authorised equal nuked as my sisters of lunch over goma harare. Not that. But i taught petronas. Los alamos shows podcasts. Kameda from you start the us couture. But i commend. Nobody was they automatically. Nauseated sangre went costano. Those military thin soberly laterally that could rally politic activity that ono student rapallo he as thirty mentioned going. Let's put i will cadaval most bruni. Well then we'll just tell us in walks spotify karmazin humans on the radio scheduler devotion to continue in. That is not clear blue. Kfiam the podium. Podcast podcastone caroliina victoria martine. Allard macos forbid lab the podium eaters. Spotify i through either format so you went on your vote. Costano better yet in at in we feel in galaxy uranium metallic eon they must conquer it does komo alexi told me the more or less elements l. fatal outland pepper email call upward as eastern low as three hundred hundred women show months yellow more established in gala owners facilities. It's the interest recommend noble kit before missing manal. Edl totaled same. ethan primavera sound. The format is stuck to the mat. Isa little gasket. And i'll gabbling to recall. Dude is today contemporaneous with that and if anything that they must gonna split coupon or cnn but is relevant everywhere you know my data center Quite simple task on a day after to see what's either that does both gas gets. Am up like punk own book. Guzman's welcome concealable move blank. You got the amendment. If do this. Chris theon abernathy abuse. Wouldn't that cut the around so you took me length grandma to put gas ludovico feminist bank in the perspective of minister. Gather missed the motel. Owner alaska's llamas. The democrats is put in the quinta in goofy. Was my tutor. Leathers yellow with in communities in the ocean governments in notre spotify. You apple podcasts. Even out here mutism was mustard. Gas stockpile simpler when he's moving elastic van land in already gone them. Wear them aruna miller with all black comparis- attend or foolish in the mirror immature fatal nopal stay. Little microphone not seen them spithill allies to bend the evan support woman muffled know if all tallow borakove media iraqi vote maria santo into the up the mass the wrentham aquarius in godolphin meta von doesn't revista masterclass. I've let on solid gusting the movement of staff alonso's bamian daughter is about casting device storytelling or more feminist. Put in motors must superintendent. I think as he got ta than is the peninsula is built The scientists that they might have be latin the podcast to your speedo irregularly. So i see them. The stash is my i literally maker.
Impossible To Get Labor Post-Stimulus: FAT Brands CEO
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. At bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's bring in now. Andy meter horn. He is the ceo of fat brands. They run own and run restaurants including johnny rockets. Fat burger and buffalo's cafe say they used to be a johnny rockets on third fifty. Sixth and i would go there and get a double bacon cheeseburger with that apple. Wood smoked bacon and peanut butter milk. Shake which. I would kill someone for one of those right now. But what's changed about the business. Andy since since i've been down there i'm in berlin the last five years so i haven't been back in the states. I don't even think that that restaurant on third avenue is open anymore. So what's what's johnny rockets. Let's fatburger like now. Well thanks for having me the rockets spray. We bought it six months ago And about three hundred twenty five restaurants. One hundred and seventy five of those are international. They're all over the place. All over europe oliver. Latin and south america And one hundred of them down there so they're everywhere today growing rapidly. We don't have one in manhattan today but hopefully we'll have another one there soon and you know businesses going all right so give us a just gives us a thirteen or fourteen months andy into this pandemic give us a kind of a before the pandemic and kind of where we are now has a pandemic impacted your businesses you. We've been We've been fortunate. In most of our brands have met or exceeded their their twenty nineteen levels. Now they've recovered. The burger brands staffer ovation burger. Which is an organic grass-fed burger chain on the east coast and johnny rockets recovering. Nicely allowed delivery into business So they were really fortunate to be able to take advantage of that market and they probably like eighty five percent of normal. There are a lot of special venues that aren't quite open yet. Like amusement parks theme parks. Things like that everywhere. Where johnny rockets new movie theaters has a lot of locations on the hurricane grill and wings. Buffalo's cafe those casual dining restaurants with full bars and outdoor dining rooms and all that there is like one hundred seventeen percent of normal so they're just recovering like crazy and part of that is because during the pandemic when outdoor dining was allowed Delivery and to go raised awareness and then when customers allowed to come back to the dining rooms. You have all this additional delivery business customers really know about before and so now there are over one hundred percent normal so doing very well a little bit of trouble in the mid west with our steakhouse unit Ponderosa and bonanza where a lot of closures for a long period of time probably lost some stores. They are but it's a small percentage of our total seven hundred restaurants. So we've been very fortunate. When you say organic grass-fed my mouth immediately starts to water and jumped on the fat burger web. Say site i see you have an ex ex ex. L triple king burger. That's a one and a half pounds. I would attempt it. I'm not sure. If i can only we we have a contest. If you eat that through the triple x. Challenge or it used to be called the triple king challenge you burger. You got a t shirt and a certificate but oftentimes we see guys and girls go into the restaurant and the girls always win because they're much smarter and they're not you french fries and drinking too much soda while they're trying to get that thing down and they're very methodical about it so it's definitely a contest brigger well as the grateful dead said the women are smarter. What i noticed is there's not a lot of fake meet here On fat burger on the johnny rockets menu. I do see a garden. Burger a black bean burger. What do you think about the fake meat trend. I dunno fake. Meat is a pejorative term. But you know what. I mean right. More and more people are so exactly we. We have please proteins across all of our brands today. the impossible burger domestically and it's To be on burger in some international markets because of distribution but the postal workers are great product Plant based proteins are here to stay Brand new adapt them and basically you take that that patty the tastes like beef and bleed like these and you add the toppings that come with your burger whether it's an innovation product or fabric or products johnny rockets product and. It's gonna taste like johnny rockets burger of fat burger. You know it's just got a different element of the patty but plant based proteins are here. They're not going away. They make up a segment of the market. Where it's much better than the ordinary garden burger or boca. Patty burger which we have also. But you know if you want the flavor of beef. Then you're going to have to go to the plant based protein and it's it's really because people don't wanna eat red meat it's not because they're the healthiest product in the market. Because they're not it's just delicious product on the cost side any tuchus about employees in ability to attract and retain employees. These as. there's so much talk out there. That stimulus impacting that words for you. Total nightmare labor market in the labor market and the restaurant industry right now has been decimated by the stimulus package and unemployment benefits and it's impossible to get people to come back to work and to get new fires new general managers new employees in the restaurants that are under construction to be built and this is not something that we experienced nine months ago when the first round of p loans and stimulus checks went out. We really didn't see this problem. But now we have people hanging around the who to get their checking spend their money instead of coming back to work and it's it's just been a problem. Obviously it's gonna wear off fairly soon. Unemployment benefits dropped off. In the seamless. Checks are spent right now. It's been very difficult. And it's driven up prices as well because the same problem exists at processing plants and for the distribution centers so we have shortages all over the country because the like sysco and us foods and all big broad line distributors have run out of drivers all right. We've heard that around the business. Andy reed or horn. Ceo fat brands. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate your thoughts on the restaurant. Industry and the latest shall we on some of the leading geopolitical issues. That are out there right now in the news when we do that we always liked to turn to admiral james dravida. She's a columnist for bloomberg opinion. Retired navy admiral. And a former military commander of nato and admiral street is always kind with his time. When we wanna talk some of these big geopolitical issues admiral. Thanks so much for joining us here. I'd love to start on the ukraine because that seems to be the most top here. We have russia massing troops on the border. There what do you think is going on. What do you think the. Us response should be if any we should. I start with working in two thousand fourteen. Russia actually invaded ukraine and carved a significant chunk out of their territory. The peninsula of crimea strategically important black sea. Russia has continue to service and support rebel groups in southeastern ukraine. So there's a lot of bad history there and now over the last two to three weeks we've seen reports vary but between two thousand and i saw a number as high as eighty thousand troops. This is a significant force. So the reason for it i think is threefold. One is a putin is rattling a samer at the united states because he knows that they're going to be some significant sanctions coming against his regime for the activities On cyber in our election and above all the solar winds hack number two Putin is playing to his home crowd if you will. All politics are local in the end. He's trying to If you will show the strength and the power of russia how can drive the dents and then third and finally he is seeking to Distract from The imprisonment and the poisoning of alexander of all his political opponents. So he's got a shopping list of things he wants to do. He's got eighty thousand troops on the border. Let's say. I think the chances are still low that he will actually conduct an invasion but he is certainly Seeking to demonstrate that he make things very difficult for the united states in the west if he desires to well in biden's ben pretty bold when talking to president putin and. I don't think it's unfair to say that. Donald trump seemingly adored the russian leader and biden comes right out of the gate kicking calling him a murderer on the other hand. Admiral it does seem as though a lot of these geopolitical hotspots. A lot of these bad actors are are showing strength right when this new administration comes into office is am i seeing it the wrong way or do the russians and the chinese just feel more comfortable doing these kind of things with democrats in office. I don't know if it's more comfortable. But they're certainly a long history on both sides republican and democrat of having to experience testing when you take over and so when president trump took a we saw kim jong un launch ballistic missiles When president biden takes over as you just saw we see ukraine. But the other one. And you're absolutely right is taiwan. We've seen the chinese. I twenty five fighters into the air defense zone of taiwan highest number Since taiwan started recording these kind of incidents china has carrier strike with operating. Just off the coast of taiwan right now. So i think it's very true to say that every administration gets tested early. The question is how do you respond. And in my most recent bloomberg opinion piece which came out this morning My prescription is you gotta stare put down. He is a killer and if you give in him if you appease him. There's no future in that process. So i think we gotta take a fairly strong stance Across that ukrainian border not with armed. Us military troops parachuting in there but giving more weapons to ukraine providing them training allowing them partnership agreements with nato. they're not members of nato but they've been a close ally are close partner of nato over the years so there's a lot we can do to demonstrate to putin that there'll be a significant cost to add to him. Admiral this brings up an issue You know i was kind of excited to see positive headline ari nato cooperation this morning at a meeting in brussels. They're going to put another five hundred. The us gonna put another five hundred troops here in germany. Where i am in berlin on the other hand i have been stationed here for the last five years and just shocked to see that the chancellor who otherwise it's considered a leader of the g twenty is so determined to get a pipeline up to russia essentially a pipeline that funneled cash to vladimir putin in exchange for his natural gas and now it looks like germans are also looking to get the russian vaccine. Is it important where you buy your commodities i mean. Aren't we funding a really problematic regime. Here we are and As i was saying just today in an interview with the german newspaper they were asking the same questions Let's add another controversy which is germany apparently is determined to use walkway to build their five g networks. In as i said to the german reporter life is full of choices for people and for alliances and it is important to the long-term relationship with the us in germany that Germany stands with the united states against these authoritarian regimes. Both russia and china all right. Let's move from hotspots planet earth to space. You also have another column out. You've been prolific talking about russia and china teaming up a new space race. What's the latest there and what's the ramifications for the us. Well the big news here is not just space. It is the way. Russia and china growing closer and closer and closer together. They're aligning themselves. Diplomatically economically militarily largest exercise military exercise conducted since the end of the cold. War was up on the siberian border between russia and china. About a year ago This latest thing us. That in china have come together in announce they will create an outpost on the move a A lunar outpost. This is a big deal because It has not only commercial economic implications but it also has real military Potential in in both of these nations. As i talked about in that bloomberg opinion piece both of them are really using their space programs in a highly militarized way so we ought to be quite concerned watching these two nations both authoritarian regimes. Both of whom we had difficult relationships with drawing closer and closer together in space in other areas admiral. Thanks very much for joining us. Always great to get your take on these issues. Admiral james dravida former supreme allied commander of nato. He is now of course retired from the us navy and a bloomberg opinion columnist as well as an executive consultant at the carlyle group and has a number of other interests got a book out. Twenty thirty four a novel of the next world war. I read the beginning. And i only put it down because i had to come to work. I actually thought about calling in sick and just reading reading the rest of the book. It's so good. And i'm really into that kind of stuff. So great to have general. Admiral james stavridis on talking about the geopolitical hotspots around the world according to new one poll research shared by pay com. Employees are so frustrated with tech. They use at work. That sixty seven percent said they're willing to take a pay cut for something better. Ouch only pay comes. Comprehensive technology automates their hr and payroll tasks in a single software. That's easy to use and for employers automatically measures the r. Y that results learn. How the right. Hr tech can help by visiting pay com dot com slash frustrations. That's pay com dot com slash frustrations johnson news. This morning. we do with one of our favourite voices and all things pharmaceutical that sam zell. He's a senior analyst for bloomberg intelligence based out of london jassem manages bloomberg intelligence for all of europe so we appreciate getting some of his valuable time. Sam thanks so much for joining us here. I look at the numbers. Being reported six cases out of almost seven million of observers. Say that's a pretty good result. Why are we pausing this thing when it's so important to get shots into arms i'd love to get your thoughts high pulls so I think it's absolutely the right thing. For the cdc in the fda to have done because number this this events this issue takes sometimes up to two weeks after the dose to uh rear its ugly head unfortunately. So it's very possible that the numbers will continue to rise possibly to ten or fifteen. Who knows continue. That'd be zenica. We're looking at something in the region of one hundred thousand depending on the age of the people who've been vaccinated that's the case. Then we we would expect to see more more here and that i think is widely. Cdc's done the they've done and of course the us does not need the j. vaccine to get the majority of its people vaccinated. And that's it. It's still a bummer. Sam because i was just just last night made final plans to fly back to new york to get the jj vaccine since it's proving very difficult to get it here in germany. That won't be the case now. I would still take it a and it seems to me. Correct me if i'm wrong. The problems that we've seen with blood clots and astra zeneca and the problems that we've seen in the j. j. vaccine blood clots seem to affect females under. Let's say the age of sixty if you like is that. Is that a fair assessment. Well so let's just be careful here though about and that is that it's only six cases in the us so that's more than enough number of people to make that decision in the uk where they've had the most cases in europe when you look at the reported incidence divided by the number of people of different sexes that have been vaccinated It doesn't have a unfortunately doesn't distinguish between men and women based in the uk. Maybe something different in the us. But i doubt it all right tim. You mentioned that when you are talking much earlier this morning you kind of. You made the comment to me again. We have plenty of supply here from five in moderna europe and think about other parts of the world. That may be relying more on a single dose. Shot like the johnson johnson. This could be problematic now. Yeah yep so. The the european union and the u k. I think we'll be fine. It might give it slower than than expected in terms of orientated in terms of Pfizer my take him within shots and then of course we'll have novak's but the rest of the world is where the problem starts because they have mostly either the j. ascertain comeback seen all the vaccine from russia or china. Don't forget the russian vaccine is also. And then i don't know virus and i would be amazed if that doesn't have the same side effects. Which of course would be incredible to have if he doesn't but then you have the china vaccines that so far. What we've seen published enough sorta has been published. They're not that effective. So you have a problem involving. Yeah i want to cover a couple of headlines bad headlines we're seeing come across the ticker right now first off new york city. Suspending atoned bound senior vaccine. Dr due to the j. and j. pause even at the jj pauses the right thing to do. It's unfortunate that they have to stop this effort to go around and vaccinate the people who need it most also the us is saying what they see with the j. j. vaccine is similar to the astros vaccine as far as the data that they have they are saying it's unclear if there's any link between the blood clots and birth control pills and this goes back to the female issue sam that we were talking about. They're saying they don't have any evidence to support that but clearly there's that speculation out their. Yeah but the european union's already answered that question two hundred and twenty two cases of this all v. itt schooled vaccine induced from both his with film subpoena. That's full this v. It two hundred twenty two twenty two cases and there's no obvious link so we have the answer. We don't need to ask any more questions on that one and what you get with these things with flights with contraceptive pill is just the clotting. You don't get that besides subpoena that loss of blood platelets that normally causes bleeding. It's very rare to have a bleeding issue and a clothing at the same time right. That's the problem here. All right tim. Thank you so much for joining us. Once again we turn to. You often wonder news on the vaccines. And this pandemic we appreciate you taking the time sampras l. He's a senior pharmaceutical analyst for bloomberg intelligence one of the absolute best for decades in the city of london that he's also the manager of all of bloomberg intelligence for europe getting the latest here on this johnson and johnson vaccine setback here the now the cdc seeing headlines that they expected the late to be in quote in a matter of days. So hopefully that is the way it turns out indeed. Is the job site that makes hiring is easy as one two three post screen and interview all on indeed get your quality shortlist of candidates whose resumes on indeed match. Your job description faster. Only pay for the candidates that meet must have qualifications and schedule and complete video interviews and your indeed dashboard. According to talent nest indeed delivers four times. More hires than all other job sites combined. If you're hiring you need indeed get started right now with a free seventy five dollars sponsored job credit to upgrade your job post at indeed dot com slash. Be news indeed. Dot com slash. Be news offer. Valid through june thirtieth terms and conditions apply. Who wanna get over to david garrity. Chief market strategist at laidlaw and company to talk to us about his expectations on the markets and tack and it. I always feel like i'm talking to someone famous when we have you on so i'm really excited to get some time with you. What do you think about the coin base. Ipo it's going to be what one hundred billion dollar valuation bigger than the exchange on which it's going to be listed. Is this a whole lot of hype or is this a growth industry. I mean coin base certainly and thank you for your kind words but coin base if we're looking at it certainly has been serving very much a gatekeeper Relative to the crypto currency market as a whole Given what they've got in terms of account base at fifty eight million accounts and arguably for an asset class that has certainly seen very strong performance over the last twelve months you know they are probably the preeminent exchange to go to certainly their business in which obviously a lot of other exchanges in other types of asset classes would like to be involved We don't necessarily see crypto currencies. You know going away much as we saw back in two thousand seventeen because now we see measures coming into place that the cryptocurrency market in its own way as being institutionalized now that said we can say got better traction now But we also say look at the valuation that you're paying for coin base you know less than two billion dollars in revenue last year one hundred billion dollar valuation. You know it's pretty rich valuation anytime you see something going out more than fifty times revenues. you know. Will they be able to grow into this. Valuation remains to be seen. But yeah you're paying a lot so this name all right. So but if i'm an investor here and all i hear is bitcoin this bitcoin that but i see it go up every day. I feel like i've missed it. Is this a way for me to maybe get exposure. And maybe this is mike. Crypto play writ large by getting into this coin base. I mean i would agree to it. And it's not just a matter of getting bitcoin exposure. But it's also getting exposure to the other crypto currencies that are listed whether we're looking at the of theory whether we're looking at the likes of lake coin tether or others So from that standpoint it a little bit of a picks and shovel Type of play if you will and in an important part of the infrastructure for the overall crypto currency ecosystem. So yes in that name. It is going to be a marquee holding for investors looking at the sector. Hey you do you. Do you have a forty five hundred price. Target on the s. and p. Because i'm looking at your note. And it says we'll earnings growth drive the s. and p. five hundred towards forty five hundred. Are we gonna hit that that level this year or are you thinking just sometime in the future in our view the trends are kind of moving in that direction and really here the doorstep of the first quarter earnings season for twenty twenty one. We just have to go back. And look at what kind of outperformance you've had over the second quarter third quarter fourth quarter twenty twenty earnings seasons and their. We've seen outperformance versus wall street expectations about thirteen percent. You know we think we're probably maybe not necessarily thirteen percent outperformance in the first quarter earnings season. But we think that nine percent you know isn't necessarily out of reach. You know if we can move and have a positive estimate revision up in terms of s and p five hundred earnings estimates are twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two if we can hold the p. e. multiple valuation constant. Yeah that'll get us to forty five hundred now. The question in terms of valuation multiples is. You know what's going on relative to the tenure and we saw the tenure cap out march first one point seven five percent and i think that basically the big surprise in terms of strategist expectations. Twenty twenty one. There's been the fact that the dollar instant weakening is actually strengthened and the strength of the dollar is important because it now allows for investors whether it's europeans whether it's japanese with insurance companies or others to you know buy into. Us treasuries on a currency hedged basis and certainly earn positive spread over what they can get back in their own home market so our view here is dollar strength leads to greater foreign demand for us fixed income which helps to slow down. The rate of interest rates rising from here in interest rate rises are moderating that arguably can work well for equities as long as earnings growth comes through and valuation levels. Hold i know it's a lot to ask but that's kind of how the mechanics work. Yeah i'd love to talk to you a little bit about the chip shortage that we're seeing in the technology space because it's not just a technology issue it's rippling out to other parts of the economy most notably. I think the auto industry has been calling out here for several quarters. How bad is it. What do you think the solution is. Well certainly dislocations and took place because things were shut down For the period of time that they were twenty twenty you know means you gotta let him imbalances and built in the supply chain. If we're looking at the lead times people have to have right now. I think the numbers of sixteen weeks depending upon the category of semi conductors You know orders to delivery but in some cases it's far worse. It's not just the auto industry if we were to look at network routers You know there were indications that order times of stretched out as far as a year And for the roll out of broadband capacity You know routers. Obviously her very critical element here and so we're seeing Points of constraint develop across the wider economy and not just in the auto sector. And certainly you know it was interesting about the biden administration. Summit would c. e. o.'s where they're talking about allocating fifty billion dollars of fiscal support towards easing semiconductor shortages. And putting more capacity here in the us is that you know there is competition whether it's amongst the auto industry other sectors who are trying to secure these chips supplies in the process. You know we have to look on a more medium to long-term solution that can put in place the capacity domestically arguably or at least close by happen on david second five to ten years. Are we making the super high tech chips at home. I'd say you know. Tsmc putting twelve billion dollars to work in their five. Nanometer manulife away for plant in phoenix. Arizona is important in that regard and yeah five to ten years. We're going to have that fab online as potentially a number of others. Obviously until made their own announcement. I think last week Twenty billion dollars. So yeah this. We're moving in that direction and we need to move in that direction because china s early indicated. They wanna be more self sufficient. I call on that asset. All right david. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate that as always david gary. Chief market strategist for laidlaw and companies also president at bt. Block two guys for all things technology. Thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter. At matt miller nineteen seventy-three and on false winnie. I'm on twitter at pt. Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us. Worldwide at bloombergradio can cryptocurrency reshape. The architecture of the global financial system join us on april twentieth for the next bloomberg new economy conversation with andrew brown. The ascent of digital money speakers include rajdeep motorin from mastercard gina open up from the international monetary fund hester emperors from the us securities and exchange commission and michael sonnen shine from grey scale investments register new economy forum dot com slash digital dash money.
Taking NY Re-Opening News With Grain Of Salt: IMAX CEO (Podcast)
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market. Moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcasts on podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. And at bloomberg dot com slash podcast. More good news for those of us who work in live in new york city. Maybe people looking to visit new york city. We got president. The blasi saying hey. We're going to be fully open july first and that's good for a lot of businesses one of which is the theater of business the movie theater business and we are so fortunate today. Deb richard guelph on. He's the ceo. Of i max. Join us richard. I'm sure you're welcoming this news. Give us your sense of what this means for. I'm accent for the movie theater business. Well first of all. i'm. I liked the news but i'm a little bit cautious. I happen to be based in new york. I live here. And i've seen the dance. Go on between mayor defazio and governor cuomo for a long time. So you're quite correct. The mayor announced its opening. But we've seen. I've seen that movie before. And we'll see what the governor says if you remember impasse integrations. The mayor said one thing and the governor said another thing so it's a good first step but but i'm not doing the happy dance until i hear from the governor. What kind of return do you expect when if and when people are fully allowed to go back to the movies or the seats can be packed. Are you leaving a seat open in between viewers. How's it gonna work what we're gonna follow the regulation and You know we've done tremendous Tremendously well in asia where the pandemic is largely passed over so place like japan and china. There aren't middle seats empty. There aren't middle. Rows people wear masks. And you know. We've set records so in japan with even seventy five percent capacity Two of the movies have been the biggest movies in the history of japan. During this period of time there's been a lot of pent up. Demand and china Are december was up. Twenty eight percent over twenty was up over. Nineteen chinese new year was up thirty percent. Believe it or not. When people aren't locked in their houses they want to go back to their normal lives. And there's a lot of demand and go to the movies. So i think once it opens up you're gonna see a lot of people wanna go and even in the last few weeks got zillow versus con. Did some fairly good numbers. I'm actually we had over a thousand sold out shows on a weekend but the problem was capacity was only twenty five percent so the numbers will limit it. But i think once those limitations come off you know people are gonna come. Richard people will come. If there's product to see what is your understanding of how hollywood's gonna roll out movies. You know on the back half of this year so there's a pretty set schedule right now as you alluded to. There's been a lot of movement in the schedule. But i think it's pretty set now so around memorial day weekend a movie start coming quiet place to comes out in june I'm just naming. Some of the major blockbusters in june fast nine comes out in july black widow. Comes out suicide. Squad i think is in august The back half of the year There's top gun maverick Tom cruise. Which i think is going to be amazing There's the new bond movie coming out by the way both bond and topgun were filmed with. I'm ex cameras. And i ain't gonna see them in the only the only way thank you. I appreciate the commercial. And i. I'll give you one two. I'm an absolute cinema fanatic. And i love to amax films. The one my favorite theater here in berlin was in potsdamer. Plus it says temporarily closed. You're gonna open that up again. I don't know there was some local issues. If you remember there were two of them. They're one at the mercedes complex and one potsdamer plot. So i don't know The the one that puts summer pas right is temporary closed. I don't know what's gonna happen. You don't let me finish the list though you're going to really like it. Which is dune which is coming out at the end. Now and that's a real spectacle that really benefit from those huge. I match screens are a richer. Pay attention and we'll be looking forward to those movies interesting news again. New york about to reopen in in july. That is certainly good news. Richard gelfond. ceo of the i. Max corporation over the last year businesses have had to think about digital commerce more than ever payments are an integral part of any business but too often they're thought of as a business necessity rather than a strategic tool with which to unlock more value for that. You need checkout dot com check out dot com a leading cloud based global payment solutions provider. Checkouts payment platform is purpose built with simplicity scale ability and speed in mind offering improved acceptance globally better and more actionable granular data. A flexible product structure that merchants can adapt to their needs combined with truly personal white glove service. It's why brands across the globe. Like pizza hut transfer wise klarna revolut and samsung trust. Checkout dot com request a free no commitment demo at checkout dot com slash business that's checkout dot com slash business now. Let's talk about us gdp with constant hunter. She's the chief economist over at kpmg and constance. We saw gdp numbers. Come out this morning. Looks like we're going to see a pretty big growth swing six point. Four percent not matching the survey but still strong right. What's your view. Yeah and when. I'm dig down into the details right. It's it's good good goods. That's what drove this first quarter and if we look out for the rest of the year we think we're gonna see now pendulum swing over to services. Which of course have lagged since the pandemic started and We get news. Like new york city's reopening in july that just further confirms our perception that we're going to see a strong demand for services really driving growth for the rest of the air all right so constants given that where we are in this reopening trait here give us your perspective on fiscal stimulus. What do you think this economy really needs if anything so i think what the biden administration is looking to do is more than just stimulus right. They're looking to reorient Distribution gdp to The lower half or lower income With of the economy and and that is a little different than pure stimulus. i would say and so things like childcare credits and things like education These are investments. That they're thinking is in our future This is something i mean. The plan looks at a longtime period for these being implemented. And i would look at it less as fiscal stimulus and more as a reorientation although with that said Given where we are growth wise it would seem we do not need further stimulus right. That did that is that is bringing coals to newcastle for this economy constants. When i was a kid. I will cop to being a total supply side freak. I i got into as well in my teens. Right okay. I got into it and i was totally an austrian and i thought you know. Raising capital gains tax would just ruin the economy because nobody would invest. all of. Those views are gone. They're no more really prominent credible freshwater economists out everybody. You looked to is a saltwater. Joe stiglitz paul krugman jeff sachs pickety for crying out loud. What happened to the right in in in economics. Well i was with you right and so was biden by the way. He voted for the for the reagan tax plan when he was in when he was a senator and we thought that that orthodoxy made a lot of sense. And i think like everything things make sense up to a point when taken too far they actually can invert upon themselves and be very deleterious and i think i think what we're seeing especially with regard to our our tax code Is that we we may be. We may be crossed rubicon. Bit too far where he used to be effective. And you can't know that of course until you until you live it and so now we're seeing a viewpoint that we need to move back. I think that we need to be careful though with regard to that movement. I think it's it's better to take it in incremental steps but are there any milton. Friedman acolytes left. I think i think there are a few i mean. I think there's you know. There's the art laffer. Proponents of the world there are there are few. There are few freshwater economists out there you know you can you can find their op-eds here and there So so so the definitely out there. But i think one of the things that that were seeing is when we look at the productivity just the distribution of productivity gains throughout the economy from the seventies until now right we see them diminishing return to lower income household of those gains and that just not sustainable right we. we can't have a thriving economy going forward if that continues to be the distribution so thirty thirty seconds constant. What's the risk here. We're gonna be getting so much good economic data. What's the risk here. Well the risk is is that we overheat a little bit and the question mark which which towel addressed. I think very thoroughly yesterday is is that transitory as many economists expect we're does. It have the possibility of anchoring inflation expectations in which case the fed will have to act sooner Before they see full employment concepts great to get your take on this it is a pretty strong growth when you dig into the numbers and we're for six point seven percent six point four percent better than stick in the. I think we'll take it are there. She is the chief economist over at. Kpmg i want to bring in mark. Douglas right now is. Ceo of steel house. Steel house specializes in targeted. Ads are also the leader in highly targeted ads on connected tv and is a partner with facebook and mark the interesting thing. I've i've noticed the last couple of days talking to analysts about facebook. I thought the reopening would hurt. You know time spent on the website. Everyone that i talked to was saying you know the bigger the bigger problem is apple's privacy changes. This could really hit facebook hard. You don't see it that way. no. I don't and the reason i don't is because there are two methods by which facebook essentially connects with they users. I mean the technical connected so one is mobile device. Id's that's what everyone is talking about but also there are cookies. And i people here a lot about how cookies being blocked cookie. Facebook has cookies on virtually every interactive device in the world so if apple essentially blocks mobile device. Id's i should say you know not as many people opt into that. Facebook has a multi billion size cookie space so they they have options that those changes by apple and not going to hurt facebook in fact they're probably going to help facebook all right mark one of the things. We look across the some of these digital advertising businesses most notably a google and facebook and crushing top. Line numbers here. They both call out or and certainly facebook the apple. Privacy changes just briefly. Explain what those changes are and will they negatively impact the growth of digital advertising. Yeah it's really simple. Your device has a ninety. You know it's other than the phone number. And so that. I d is used in order to apps like the facebook app to be able to essentially no identify you or identified or device and and essentially keep information on it would apple is doing is. They're essentially saying you have to ask the user of that device for permission to do that and so that's the change at apple's doing it not blocking it. They're adding except to ask permission. And there's a fear that a lot of people may say no and so that's really what the issue is and like i said facebook has options and also. It's not clear that a lot of people are actually going to say no to essentially that type of tracking one of the Notable things that steve jobs you say was it's not about giving people what they need is about giving them giving them what they want but giving them what they need. And i feel like there's a lesson to be learned around targeted ads. People always say they hate targeted ads or there they find it creepy. But i personally appreciate having ads pop up that are relevant to me and not just random stuff that i don't wanna look at. Do you think that people may be want them more than they think or need them more than they think they do. Yeah i think the way to think about this is when you go and buy a product. Significant percentage of the cost that product was the cost of find you as a consumer. So if you go buy a mattress from an online mattress company as much and then mattress costs a thousand dollars as much as four hundred dollars of two thousand dollars is what it costs to market to you to advertise buying you as a consumer. So if you make it harder for the company you're actually going to raise that cost and eventually the cost of the mattress itself is going to have to go up but if you do the opposite then that costs goes down. That's why companies when you buy and they send you emails they'll send you discounts over email because it's cheaper to the market to you so it's not in a in consumer interest essentially make it harder to reach you as a consumer products. You actually want to buy literally just going to have to spend more on those products. And i think that's not clear by consumers but i think it's going to become more clear over time and they will opt to that type of essentially advertising and other forms of marketing. All right mark looking at some of the results again from these big digital media companies facebook google again crush it pinterest however came in lower than expected disappointed. Folks are we seeing a just i guess. More and more market share in terms of adspend digital ad spent go to the big platforms on. I'll even throw at amazon in there as well and it's just crumbs for everybody else. Well i think it goes a little bit back to the privacy issue which is as you have. Companies like google essentially shutting down. Third party cookies. You have apple hill centrally making most of these harder there essentially consolidating their position. They're they're not. Actually you know. Essentially making things more private because their data collection is being unaffected. They're just making it harder for everyone else. So they go goes in fact consolidating their position as a market leader through changes in chrome apple in some ways of doing that with their changes to mobile device. Id's and so that's going to negatively impact everyone else so you know the the the there is an element at but i think it's coming in the form of privacy. That is naturally private if their data collection is completely unaffected. Ask you about the yankees. They don't seem to be doing too well. At the beginning of the season here mark. i grew up right by the stadium in the bronx. Wha what do you expect from this team. So i well right this very minute. I'm living in the mexico for the last six months. I can't say following the season very closely. They'll give you one quick story. I grew up nine blocks from yankee stadium. But since i didn't have the money to go to the yankees games. I was like screw those guys. I'm going to root for the mets fan. Living there yankees say well you can afford to buy tickets to both both teams and not even go from bloom so great having you on mark. Douglas joining us the steel steel house. Ceo talking about targeted advertising with apple and facebook. This is bloomberg outta bring it now. Mace mccain president and chief investment officer at frost investment advisers. Who manage five point. One billion dollars worth of assets and we just had a strong gdp print. We had fed decision yesterday. Where you heard the words transitory transitory transitory and yet ford says the chip shortage is gonna cost two and a half billion dollars apple. Says it's going to be a three to four billion dollar hit. It's not just the chip shortage. I'm looking for parched. My bmw exhaust hanger and a gps. They're made out of aluminum in the company that makes them has trouble sourcing. It plus we just talked about copper prices. Iron ore is surging food. Gasoline is this really transitory are elements. I don't think can be transitory or there's other elements creeping in. I think we'll see pressure on upward on prices as we move forward all right so make sense of how you think. This federal reserve is performing right here given what matches kind of laid out is some certainly some signs of i think that They've kind of taken theirselves out of the game at a critical point here They've said that they're going indicated that they're not likely to remove qe or stimulus until the fourth quarter at the earliest as expectations. But some of these these pricing pressures as you pointed out. We're still seeing. In spite of a first quarter growth. We continued to see him in toys at a low level. And we also have not seen a resurgence yet and restaurants or hotels days. So we're going to see continued growth in pricing pressure In this and the supply chain and Some of these maybe transitory. But there's other indications that some of the other may not be transitory labor shortages Continued to be acute It's hard to get people to come back with the high government Payouts and seems like people are stuck on the sofa rather than looking for jobs. I think that's going to have an impact on the Liberates is one of the key factors. We've heard that also from we've had guests who restaurants and hotels and they just can't get anybody to come into work. Of course the answer to that conundrum is just to raise what you're paying them. That's another thing that then adds to inflation and the fed can't be terribly unhappy about that. They want to see to two and a half percent inflation. But are we going to see more than that. Could we see three or four percent over time. yes. I think we could especially in the short term We could see higher as we try to As you pointed out on the semiconductor side that's causing shortages. And autos and i think that does going to give the auto manufacturers lower pricing power and even some of the more commodity like industries like computers and technology equipment. I think are going to have pricing power short term. So i think to the short term we could see some some very high Reported inflation numbers. The question is gonna be is the fed right in their bet. That does be transitory. That's going to be the key thing we're going to be looking at going. Throughout the year is trying to determine is a transitory and how much of it's becoming ingrained in the economy. Let's go look at one of the big drivers of inflation. Oil prices here. Mesa looking at Brent crude at sixty eight dollars a barrel today up another one point. Three percents of definitely has been moving higher. We even met. And i were talking earlier this week about a bloomberg news story. Four dollar gasoline at the pump in california. When does energy the price of energy become perhaps a headwind for the economy. I'm not sure what it becomes a headwind. But i do believe it's going to be one of those non transitory price pressures because with the Policy the current administration We have stopped building pipelines which is going to make it more difficult to move supply in the united states so so going to be a detriment to drilling new areas We're also making more difficult into drill. Federal land all. These things are going to stack up at the same time to limit supply at the same time that we're about ready to increase demand. So i think you know. We've not eliminated the need for oil and gas in our economy and as a demand goes up with gonna continue to see Higher prices on the gas side in. That's probably one of those non transitory factors so if we start looking forward at non transitory factors we have labor rates which may become ingrained. It's going to be hard to see rates go back down and then certainly Energy prices so those are kind of starting to stack up In against the case all right. Mace thanks very much for joining us. Really appreciate your insight on this base mccain. President and chief investment officer at frost investment advisers as i said they have assets under management totalling more than five point one billion dollars thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter at matt miller. Nineteen seventy-three on false winnie. I'm on twitter at p. T. sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us. Worldwide at bloombergradio. Join us on me. Fourth virtual event designed to provide private investors family offices and financial advisers actionable intelligence from coin base betterment. Ngo private wealth delphi digital nationwide financial and many more bill. Shed light on the most vexing questions and surprising. Opportunities facing wealth management in a post pandemic world founding sponsor b. and y. mellon wealth management presenting sponsor. Gray scale investments register bloomberglive.com slash wealth slash radio.
Old and New Wall Street Will Converge This Week: Basak
"Welcome to the bloomberg markets podcast. I'm paul sweeney alongside macos manohar. Every business day we bring you interviews from. Ceo's market pros and bloomberg experts along with essential market moving news on the bloomberg markets. Podcast on apple podcasts. Or wherever you listen to podcasts. And at bloomberg dot com slash. Podcast rain wall street reporter schmolly vasic. Now who has taken a- five day many sabbatical to read jamie diamonds annual letter cinelli. I'm just wondering after you got through the sixty six page. Tome did it give us any hints as to what to expect from the earnings report coming on wednesday. Listen the fact that thinks that things are going to be good till twenty twenty three says a lot right because you have volatility now down a little bit which you know on. The face of it is fine. It's nice it's boring but banks make money when things get volatile banks. Don't make money when things get too rough for people to really engage in markets right. So what's the what our expectations. Here's we come in for these banks here this earnings Because we're gonna have a lot of the big ones on wednesday. Yeah i've got to say. I have moved on from jamie dimon. Daniel letter all the way to the situation. Aca motor white paper again. Because on wednesday we have both j. p. morgan reporting and coin basis direct listing. So you have old wall street new wall street. You have a confluence of events. That i think are very exciting. Actually and coin base is going to be using the direct listing motto. Which we've wondered for a long time. How much that type of a model is going to eat into the traditional. Ipo's that make the banks. Oh so much money. As we knew the banks make less money in. Do we know how much less they do make on direct listening versus a traditional view. Well here's what's interesting. They don't make less money per bank. they're just a lot less banks working on them. So where you can have a dozen or so underwriters direct listing. There's really only a few that work on a po. There's only a few that work on a direct listing so goldman and morgan stanley are really gotten ahead of this. They've been able to make a business for themselves. Sit out securities which is usually the market maker for these direct listings. They've made a big business for themselves. But on nasdaq. You don't need a market maker. Likes securities nasdaq kind of does the process for you And so it's a big day for the exchange and it's a big day for the you know i like how bloomberg intelligence puts it. You can expect coin base to eventually become a bank for crypto. It's also a big day for the bitcoin. Community or the crypto community because this is a much more democratic way of giving investors access to your shares right if you do an ipo. You need to be a buyer in that as a retail investor syndicate that means developed a long relationship with your broker. You have to be a big player you know. It almost seems unfair for a mom and pop investor. Because there's no hope in heck that they can ever get syndicate. They have to buy it after it starts trading typically after a pop right. Yeah that's really the hope here that the direct listings can make this much more democratic. Let's see how it works out at the end of the day right. Let's see how many people actually start to buy into coin base and then you know it. Also it's become a more than one hundred billion dollar company and private markets. Do they keep that evaluation as they become a retail play. You can make argument both ways right if bitcoin continues at its current pace if they add more products if you got more retail interests than you see coined based going much higher and it is good but other areas you can say maybe some of these companies have waited very late and do they face potential down rounds when they get into public. Mark also be interesting to see if the price in. Bitcoin fades a little into this. Because that's one hundred billion dollars that's essentially gonna come out of crypto market cap. isn't it. Yeah it's it's pretty incredible here. The coin as play is really looking beyond bitcoin. Right and looking at them getting into other assets like areas like custody right making bitcoin more easily held and tradable for large institutional firms because firms like j. p. Morgan right have been so slow to get into this kind of new new era finance. It's kind of where i wanted to see. What are the the big banks. Saying about crypto because it feels like late to the game it feels like they don't they have not made a big commitment. How are how our investors thinking about this. Well one thing. That's pretty incredible as we in recent. We've got news. That goldman and morgan stanley are taking steps to make it more available for their private wealth clients. There's a couple of ramifications for that one crypto was supposed to be this great equalizer yet at the banks. It's being made available to the wealthiest clients first so that is kind of against the whole heart of crypto is supposed to stand for the other thing about it is again. It's years later right. It's a crypt bitcoin. Above fifty thousand dollars is when they're starting to sell it. Does that big give a big boost to the price or are they getting in late. Only time will tell that story. You know the folks that have gotten in much earlier through other means. Outside of the banks are probably much happier today but you do see the banks trying to embrace it. Just got twenty seconds here but you speak to the wealthiest investors on wall street. Are you noticing an uptick in the number who are interested in bitcoin. Oh yeah even traditional hedge fund managers. You know watching. Dan loeb tweet about it. Over the weekend is is fun to change too much. Yeah that's interesting. I think the we are seeing that institutional uptake guys and even on the corporate side with a tesla obsolete putting it on its balance. Sheet schmolly So much for joining us giving that preview of earnings and previous coined base on wednesday wall street reporter for bloomberg news where we appreciate getting the update on off things wall street. Now let's go straight to dunkin alder joins us from general motors where he's the vice president global buick and gmc duncan gray tabby on the program. I gotta say. Ever since. I was a kid and arnold schwarzenegger started driving his mil. Spec h one hummer around la. I have wanted one. And i still want one preferably with a big six point. Seven liter turbo diesel. But you're bringing back the hammer in a much more aeko friendly way. What kind of demand are you seeing. Yeah good morning. Great to be with you. Well we're seeing huge demand. We revealed the a pickup truck version. All the gmc homework and october and we'd just revealed the suv version of it about a week. Also ago we started taking reservations and he says to say the The reservation county huge We we did a limited edition first edition. We sold out in minutes both the truck originally and then more recently for the suv. And this is very different. The vehicle that you just mentioned as you say. This is a true zero emission all electric vehicle but believe me the fullness capability that this generates really does original homa into the shade zero to sixty in three seconds to the truck a little bit longer for the suv The ability to go in the most Difficult off road terrains. This is a super truck and we coined the phrase on this because this really is the world's first patrol whether it being pickup truck or suv guys. All right. what are these super trucks gonna set me back. So we started eighty thousand dollars And they go all the way up. Two hundred thousand dollars But full that you get in an amazing amount of capability. I mentioned that The the zero to sixty type of figures. But you've also got four wheel steering so these big vehicles but they've got a turning circle thanks to all four wheels turning. That is the same. As a small colleges chevrolet sonic for example about full wheel stair function also allows you to go into what we call crop walk which means a vehicle can driving to diagnose fascism where she might think. Why do i need that. So when you get into extreme off road environments to help navigate around is an amazing feature. But to be honest he just makes you smile when you do it because you see the hurry. The horizon going in the wrong direction when you're driving an amazing feature The we have what's called an infiniti russo. The six panels which all come off the store in the front of the vehicle where an engine would be a traditional vehicle You can stole the infinity panel roof and the rear drop. Glass actually falls down. So you basically make these vehicle a convertible. We think it's probably the first all electric convertible in the world. And of course you get an amazing open. Air experience with A near silence of from the propulsion system. Because he's electric He's also super cruise the latest generation supra cruising this. He's well a lot of people. Refer to as autonomous driving. We call it a driver assist feature but it allows you to drive along the highway. Two hands off the wheel completely and they really even do overtaking maneuvers as well so this is a vehicle that he's truly revolutionary truly a super truck whilst the the overpriced bounds. We think it's incredible value of money. It will be amazing. I mean i'm looking forward to the suv version. Which comes out. I think what late twenty twenty three. And i think it's gorgeous. I gotta ask though dunkin. What's your answer to the current the current crop of gas powered super trucks. You've got the dodge ram extra. I think blew everybody away and ford plans to answer. Could they kind of flubbed it. And now they're gonna answer next year with the raptor are but these are more than six leaders. Va supercharged or turbocharged. With seven hundred horsepower. Does gm have an answer to that. Yeah we do and again you know. I still selling traditional base vehicles as well and i load the hippies before the looking for then quite honestly nothing can close to To the home reveal whether it being truck Pickup truck or suv guys. We're talking about eleven and a half thousand pounds toll which can about power on the truck in about eight thirty on the suv. And as i say that you're talking about instant acceleration zero to sixty three seconds on the truck in about three and a half on suv. so this is This gives truly kind of unprecedented levels of performance. And it doesn't just do it in a in a way that he's a purebred bowls for example when you choose to Go for this grade zero to sixty time. obviously in the safe conditions you engage. What's called watts to freedom mode and whatnot does it lowers the vehicle to its lowest level because the suspension goes up and down the seat styles. Vibration you get home with like an amusement parks theater within the victims all the screen begins to display things. And you came down and then boom you. You press the gospel story. You press the accelerator pedal of yo yo. Gas pedal very pedal now gas pro. Now all right. That was good car talk guys. I'm glad you guys got the chat your little auto. Stuff duncan aldred vice president global buick and gmc talking about electric vehicles coming to the truck market. And i know one. Matt miller is site. So that's good for him this week. We're going to see a big big. Ipo it's into crypto space coin based coming public this week via a direct listing at a staggering valuation staggering to me at least a proximity one hundred billion dollars. Let's get the latest on this. We can do that with john woo. He's the president of ap labs based in miami. So i john. Thanks so much for joining us here. I love few just simply describe what coin base is and white is so critical to the crypto world. All nice to be here so coin. Base is a crypto exchange. They are very important to crypto world. Because they are one of the few properly regulated exchanges allows fiat onto the don't world so they provide that service in a compliant way. And that's why it's so important. You know before i go to bed every night. I always like to dream about had. I bought like three thousand bitcoin when it was it. Seventy five dollars a piece. That i would have liked to sell it out around seventeen. Eighteen thousand that the peak and twenty thousand and then buy back in dropped again and then sell out again at like sixty thousand so i would be like a billionaire right now. Would i be able to do that on on coin base. Was that with the best place for me to do it Yeah you're allowed to do that. That's one of the places you can do it but You know like in test the fact from having been on the buy side before it's easier to just buy and hold the concept of trying to capture a move and being able to navigate the daily trading. These are dreams. john. This is my. This is my dream every night. It's nothing that i could actually have done. I think it would be ethically wrong for me. But is coined based on the best place to do big. Bitcoin trades securely for a us duster who wants an experience similar to what they do at the brokerage houses. The answer is yes all right so john. Is this a way for investors. If i wanted to buy into this point base. Ipo my major play. Here is hey. This gives me exposure to the crypto world. Yes absolutely. I think the one thing that you would have to consider though is how correlated is to just get coin i think seventy percent of the assets custody. These guys is just bitcoin. So if you wanna get exposure to anything below the top five coins this is okay way but it's not probably possibly the best way to do it. So where else should investors look then right now and does. This crypto boom still have room to run so in terms of. I answer it backwards in terms of the boom. I think you absolutely have room. Because the market cap in crypto has gone from about one trillion at the end of january two about two trillion part of that is just you know bitcoin price of btc going up. But if you look at what's beneath that in the fastest growing parts of it even coin bases custody it is cerium and some of the other alternatives. They has proven to the world. The first generation of crypto was good for a digital currency. Cerium is now showing people that hey they're utility. There's this whole define network popping up these nf t at you. And i have talked about in the past. So there's starting to be getting use case and what i call. Second generation of crypto which is new theory. I'm in some of the alternatives is a theory helped me out. Here is the theory competitor to bitcoin. Or is it just a use case bitcoin. Do we think about it in the context of bitcoin because we are hearing more and more about a theory. Stock price has the price of the currency continues to rise. Sure the easiest way to think of cerium is that it is showing the utility. It's kind of like i o s on apple. It is the platform that allows applications whether in the traditional world facebook or clubhouse or tiktok to build on top of that by s because it has a platform to allow developers to come in and be creative and create use cases on top of it That's the best way to think about theory. Whereas bitcoin the best use case actually frankly is still digital gold storage of value. And that is because he call it. Think of it as the operating system the mechanism Bitcoin has certain advantages. But it doesn't have be. It doesn't have transaction capability doesn't have smart contracts on top of. That's what he has provided. Now there's a whole new group while quipped three point zero and that's the guys below the fold and those guys are now making those transaction happened at a very very fast paced no latency and making it cheap. So you know we've talked. We've talked by. Nfc's in the past. There are people right. now go to syria. They purchase a fifty dollar. Nfc somewhere they had to pay thirty to forty dollars in gas prices which is effectively transaction costs. So that's gonna be prohibitive of creating a proper digital economy so you have a whole new generation now of call it platforms that are allowing better technology. Better way of setting things up allowing people to actually transact allowing digital comic to really thrive that medium exchange should not be prohibited to becoming a nice economy. So tell us quickly again. What you're doing eva labs because you you know. Come from a full ivy league pedigree. Nba harvard. You worked at tiger management. What what do you do in. What is your platform capable of. So i'm president of labs even labs is the team behind the protocol avalanches next generation blockchain. That is compatible with uranium. So exactly what. I said before where i think. The first turner should crypto. Bitcoin was digital money. Second generation was applications utility an ecosystem third-generation are gonna be avalanche light platforms that allow people to transact and exchange things cheaply. It's almost like my friendster my space and now we're in the world a facebook where we're gonna doubt the really take off all right. Well it's great to get your insight on all things crypto. John thanks again for joining us. Hope to have you back again soon. John woo there the president of evil labs talking to us about the coin base. Ipo this could be a hundred billion dollar company. it certainly is value. That way privately in the question is how will. Investors who've bid up crypto assets so quickly. You know embrace point coin yes absolutely and it's gonna be a direct listing matt so it's gonna be really interesting to see how this intrigued when it does come out. Yeah i think. The direct listing aspect of. It is really cool so you could get a lot more retail. This is bloomberg now. We're bringing analog rana. He is bloomberg intelligence senior industry analyst. And of course the chips summit is on today. We'll get to that but first off. This morning we saw microsoft headlines crossed. They're going to buy nuance in sixteen billion dollar deal. That is their second largest in history. I read your piece and you have a really cool chart about the reach. The product penetration of nuance. Ten thousand organizations use it. But i thought it was amazing. Ninety percent of hospitals in america use nuance solutions. What does this company do so in the simplest wave if finally doctor and i come back off visiting patients i need to transcribe. That saw that particular. You know dictation. Of the of the chalked the software it allows me to transcribe it. As as as you and i are talking the software transcribes conversation in the background and that really has been their forte for many years. And that's really where the price of the product is and this is what we think microsoft's to scale it much bigger all right so i mean nineteen point seven billion dollars. That's a that's a big number to the matt. Miller and paul sweeney's of the world But the microsoft. That's not so much here. So i guess they're thinking about the total addressable market. What's just give us a sense of the strategy behind microsoft what they think they can do with this asset so think about it for currently health kid accounts for close to eighteen percent of us gdp in terms of total expenses. It's an area which is probably the biggest problem area for any corporation. that's out there is a problem for all politicians but and we've always said for years. I everybody said for us. Only technology can solve this problem of you way stage now the pandemic is a catalyst for people to say. Can we do a lot more work or digitally and this is one of the the the you could say nuggets off aware as we go digital you wanna get more things that can transcribe using. You know voice using ai. Yeah i mean when you when you talk about what doctors use it for. I'm thinking like my mechanic could use this for my bike. I got car float clutch slippage. You know if you have an old bike those things are a problem but you could use it in so many different ways. For example financial the financial industry could use it in in looking at a client's portfolio. Are they gonna stick with just healthcare. Here i don't think so. In fact one of the things being pointed out in written research is conversation is increasingly becoming. The the most important we people interact with any application. So you know form the consumer point whether that's alexa or city but from other areas especially that it's your hr software down the road you know whether it's any other activity application that helps you become more Productive you will be using voice as the first we have command to interact with diverse and on the other side. And that's why is this software the guts of this offer so important because you can use it to create customer service jackpots. For example on our you've covered microsoft for a long time. They typically don't acquire a lot of stuff. They're not very active. In the emanate market. They did bide linked in. And now this deal in a couple of others. Is that going to stay the same or do you expect them to try to step up goose growth rate with with some acquisitions. I think the biggest thing i would say is they would want to grow traits not by actually acquiring something for the sake of revenue. But it's going to be technologies that have very large implications so for example this particular applications as both of you mentioned we'll have applications not just in the healthcare vertical but almost everything that microsoft does so You know it's it's it's a question of acquiring the software Where the end. Marcus is incredibly large. And i think that's really working. You will be looking at is whether they keep on investing in areas where You know the the end markets not tiny but have a very large addressable market so just want to quickly get your touch on the chip summit. That's happening today. We've seen the problems spread across a number of industries. Just thirty seconds here and are what do you expect to be accomplished. I don't think that it is going to accomplish anything. Concrete in a sense that that's a problem that just cannot be solved so quickly but we are unhappy that they're discussing this problem just because as a nation really needs to get a lot more semiconductor work done in the us rather than being A hostage to the vendors realistically on our will. We bring chip manufacturing to the states. I it's very difficult to say whether we physically bring a lot of really have a way to make sure that you know similar to the way we are getting drugs or getting the vaccine in the problem from anywhere in the world we need to make sure we get the first access to it before anybody else does all right on. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate that entourage a senior software. It services analysts for bloomberg intelligence. Helping us break down the microsoft deal again. Nineteen point seven billion dollars total consideration a big premium but as on was mentioning increases microsoft's positioning and enhances its positioning in healthcare as healthcare a moves into the twenty th century or so involved. Thanks for listening to the bloomberg markets. Podcast you can subscribe and listen to interviews apple podcasts. Or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm matt miller. I'm on twitter at matt miller. Nineteen on false swinney. I'm on twitter at pt. Sweeney before the podcast you can always catch us worldwide at bloomberg radio. Do you have the right technology to propel. Your firm's growth bloomberg by side solutions are engineered to deliver a seamless enterprise experience data analytics trading risk operations. The buy side from every side visit bloomberg dot com slash by side.