20 Episode results for "Lynton crosby"

What is the fallout from Donald Tusk's Brexit strategy?

Coffee House Shots

09:52 min | 1 year ago

What is the fallout from Donald Tusk's Brexit strategy?

"Unwelcomed coffeehouse shots. I'm nar. Pentagon and stay joined by cables and phrase Nelson Donald test was giving a speech at air. And you had quite an interesting line in it. That's listen. I've been wondering what the special place in hell looks like for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan how to carry safely make. What did you make? It was a pretty extraordinary thing to say, especially the stage negotiations to resume about to arrive in Brussels tomorrow. And what does she get as welcomed on all talking about Briggs? This year's going to hell now sure you can say he was referring to the Briggs here leaders that will be people, of course, in the cabinet SAM's in your politicians, but not a he might say, all tears. It wasn't Theresa May herself. With course didn't campaign for Brexit in the referendum, but still this sets incredibly bad blood, and doesn't really am prepared reasonably to think he's going to get much of a good reception. When she turns up the question is why he decided to do it. He can build it as thought was a size. But then he tweeted it separately to make sure the Briggs. It's an hell message was was was well interested if Donald Trump had said something like this everybody would be condemning him for using incendiary undiplomatic language. So you you can't you. Use these analogies in diplomatic situations and not expect that a big response. So I'm not quite sure of much of an effect on British public opinion. If anything it will probably be like in the Bama moment, where break Obama said the Briton get to the back of the queue that got people's backs up as this will get people's banks up, but why would Donald to wants to do this? It might be because he's beginning to think the game is up the no going to reach an Aguzzi -ation in new deal is and inevitably any might be rhetorically preparing for it. Or he might be trying to harden his position and sort of snarl to resume hoping push home her case too hard when she arrives in Brussels tomorrow either way it serves to minder of what's certainly unifies like me will not miss about the EU the way as leaders can behave in this Trump esque manner. I mean, sure our politicians do now. Again, this terrible when it happens. Jeremy hunt was talking you by the EU as our shouldn't have done that. But the wasn't nother story behind his speech today that Katie was blogging. Yeah. I think actually everyone is very focused on the Brexit tears, and those he campaigned for Brexit without having a specific plan for after maybe have a special place in half. And it's understandably so we've seen politicians across the divide say that it's disrespectful. But I thought actually it was most telling about that press conference was don't his comments about a second referendum because he said, I know that still the very great number of fooling E K and on the continent wish for reversal of this decision. I have always been with you with all my heart. But he goes on to say the facts are unmistakable at the moment. The pro Brexit's dance, the prime minister and the leader of the opposition rules at this question. So space saying you're not going to get a second referendum, and I think that's really interesting because after trees May's suffered her historic defeat on her Brexit do to try to tweet, and it was not seen as helpful by the government that perhaps the happiest. Thing or the happiest ending would be to not do Brexit with us what he hinted and does being this repeated line from figures particularly to that. If you push the UK hard enough to happen as a second referendum and the K remaining in the EU that are no deal scenario. And that's something the U K government have found quite difficult to go up against because they feed saying actually, even if you had a second referendum, that's unlikely to be the result. And I think the fact that he said this in this conference today's just after all the recent votes on things the Brady amendment and also that the position of the of the labor side. There's now an acceptance that is very unlikely and actually that could despite will the anger today via slightly positive step forward because if the e- really derailed is the UK's leaving, and they don't want no deal to happen. We might start to see some meat on other things. But what can you incur in? Barney never mentioned is the biggest single factor behind this, which is public opinion public. Opinion shoes. If it were a second Reverend things haven't changed that were were silicon Trie broadly split and notice in Brussels, always talk in terms of what the Tory backbenchers wanted to screw serves condemnation of leaders of the Brexit's campaign rather than those who voted for Briggs. They're always airbrushed out of the EU version of politics. But that's not to say that MTA is so stupid that he can't see the way public opinion is going and public opinion does seem to be hardening behind a new deal Brexit, there is a an impending pool recently showing it was pretty much level-pegging were remain. And this is not a country, which is looking over the precipice, linking odors terrifying weekend. Do it. I think that's too expensive. You're actually might be counterproductive because it just reminds people was is that we're leaving. And why we are leaving it. You couldn't really look at the way they behave and talk and act and think vis looks like a great outfit. I really wish we would join this. We were. Engine in it already. So I think with TISCO so he was saying which reason is going to come to him with a proposal. And he's going to listen to I thought that was quite significant as well. Because previously the language is all been forget it Theresa. We don't care about you wanting this with withdrawal agreement is closed. The fact is that parliament as opposed to reason me said that it wants to look again that the Bank stop, and there's a deal to be done here. Now, if you're the EU, and you don't want to Briggs. And of course, they wouldn't want to you'll breaks. It would mean that Bernie is negotiations were all in vain. It would inflict completely unnecessary damage on the economies of north of France of Nederlands. I mean, nobody would want a destructive Brexit. There was a deal to be done as alternative and the deal to be done is quite a simple. She will say if you would give us a clause at allow us to exit the bank's top of six notice. Parliament would basically pass it is not much of an ask and two is very very close. To be able to pull something out of this fire. And at one of the thing to perhaps it's just one of the first stages of grief and actually accepting that UK is going and now we're going to start to see some progress because it's also outstep for some of the comments you heard from Angela the this week that she Santa quite positive at least suggesting that we should in a respectful manner come together and be creative. And that seemed to be the opposite of what happened, but the hell comments. But I think big a pitcher it does village things are starting to move to wonder Katie, obviously to skim you what he was doing with that hail comments. You could tell he phrased as an aside, but he was reading it very carefully from his script. He knew it would detonate. And I wonder if he did it because that might give him some leeway for conceding later on talking tough now, but being perhaps more conciliatory tomorrow to see a dead cat to use the Lynton Crosby tactic. Katie you in the chamber of PM cues did anything interesting happen. To raise me, wasn't average buys nature means that should be a little bit more interesting than on because we'll Jeremy couvert wasn't there as a result and between the two of them. It isn't really the the greatest oratory. I think that the comments has seen. Instead, we had David Livingston here is to raise as defacto and deputy little bit name and Emily Thornberry. And it was it was an interesting exchange. You had Emily Thornberry trying to push David linen to say the government commit to customer union as only way to solve the Baxter problem doesn't solve it completely. But as a way to get to solving that and you had David Lynton trying to say that he didn't want to do that. And I think it's been strange situation because most people David intimate quite keen to have a customs union, tons of his personal views on the and probably just want to stop Brexit, given her personal views, but they're doing the party's positions. I think it did put some pressure on the government side regarding how they found to get. Deal for because if Theresa May get me on the backstop, lots of people even the conserved party, he thinks she might be able to get a majority backing some form of customer geniune that is toxic to many people in the Tory party is highlighting that that route. For is interesting with us come back on the edge. And now the two there isn't an agreement on the Bank stop, then she will see to party will sorry guys in my tried my best, but I'm now going to get into bed with a whole chunk of the labor party. We're going to have a customs union that you're going to like very much. So this will is funny how Theresa May's prospects in careers, always can them goes from being almost over the edge is almost finished his bag news her things will look at the end of this. We thank you for his an KT, and we've got a special subscription author if he's scribes the magazine, you can get twelve weeks, which is twelve pounds as what is free Aspinall code Hoda worth sixty pounds. To get it. Just go to spectator. Could you k- Ford slash Aspen? Thanks listing undo. Join us again Moore.

Brexit Briggs EU Theresa May Brussels UK Katie Brexit Donald Trump Emily Thornberry Parliament Nelson Donald Pentagon Lynton Crosby labor party TISCO Brexit prime minister Obama
 Election 2019: on the campaign trail with Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn

Today in Focus

33:26 min | 8 months ago

Election 2019: on the campaign trail with Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn

"Today following Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn on the election campaign trail and and wildfires in Australia. Reach dangerous new levels as most Johnson given booze for this campaign he claims to have done he has been spotted sipping zipping through bits here and there on the campaign trail the Guardians. Deputy political editor Rowena Mason has spent this election election campaign criss crossing the country on the tail of Conservative leader. Boris Johnson close enough to watch his daily habits unnoticed. His optimism awesome about the likely outcome and I was on the tour bus last week. Boris Johnson in a huddle with journalists started talking Greek to us it was very ah cheerful excitable form and it just gave you the sense that even though he was saying that he wasn't really measuring the curse in Jaffna refuse to answer any questions about life in Downing Street the impression he was giving was he was pretty confident about where he was heading. Political editor have Stewart has been traveling with Labor leader. Jeremy Corbyn we know enough traveling around on trains watching how he keeps calm. As the tension builds a picture on Jeremy Cubans twitter feed and it was him on a train down to to an event on the coast in the South West somewhere and he was staring out the train window a lovely rainbow and I thought that I could imagine his aides thinking you know this is a great way to sort sort of calm him down and getting back into that Nice twinkly relaxed mood that where he owns his questions well and comes over much better. There are just two days to go until we vote in a momentous election. The decision made on Thursday could tip Britain straight into brexit under under a conservative government that has shifted to the right Aussie Labor offer. A second referendum and immediately start start to re nationalize key industries. The choice has rarely been so struck from the Guardian. I'm initiative Astana today in focus this on the campaign trail with Boris Johnson. And Jeremy Corbyn Heather if you can cast your mind back to the very start of this campaign. What was the mood like for the Labor leadership but then I went to the sort flown events today? We launched the most ambitious and radical campaign. Our country has ever say it was very upbeat. Lively in the art center The big audience. There was a real sense of these eon usual kind of temptation soundtrack and temptations. Yeah yeah they live with this sort of no. That's the wrong in Burton type. Tell him about the song right. Let's see this again Tom. I turned up about a half an hour for its stars. Didn't get a seat so I stood at the back trying to You Know Sit Cross legged getting fun story on my laptop in the Kuban question. It's a labor seat but with a small but to see the clouds were obsolete. Partially Wild Wild there was there was a woman named me middle-age woman you knew -lating thing us the word which account you can't do that means he's a real kind of almost desperation things can be better. Shouldn't be better. Shouldn't we have a different kind of world. which was the message that went down well in twenty seventeen and here it was? It was like a greatest hits feeling about the mentioned on the first week of the campaign didn't go well for the stories. Didn't it was pretty disastrous stress. Because of Jacob Rees Mocks Comments About Grenfell Tower when he was suggesting that people who took the advice of the fire service and stayed where they were talking common. Sense a a I think if either of us were whatever the fire brigade said we would leave a burning building that was the first real blow to their campaign since then I'm Jake rees-mogg a very close ally abortions effectively being benched Geno. I texted him just just after he'd made those comments to see if he would do a guardian event and he replied in many things. That is a very tempting invitation but I plan hardly to leave Somerset during the campaign and that has been worn out because he is only very rarely been spotted by several several reporters at being sent to look for him. I think I saw a Selfie at stonehenge. The other day then there was another could Husky and that was a Alan cans. Welsh L. Secretary resigned over some actions by one of his former aides in connection to a rape trial. He was accused of sabotaging today. He wrote to the Prime Prime Minister. This is a very sensitive matter and in light of continued speculation. I write to tender my resignation. As Secretary of State for Wales. He added that he was confident. He would be cleared of wrongdoing. If you talk to Tori strategist now. What they say is that they really tried to be ruthless about dealing with those two two incidents that the time forcing degrees to apologize straight away and then take him off the pitch and Allen Kearns doing a similar thing even though it was damaging to the campaign in Wales? That's the typical philosophy of Lynton crosby. WHO's a Tory election guru and a close friend? Boris Johnson of getting barnacles off the boat. That's how is being referred to internally He may have got those barnacles off the bait but it certainly didn't immediately improve. I mean you were on the campaign trail and one of the early things. That seem quite bad. Was it was major flooding cutting across the north of England and the Midlands and it took Boris Johnson. Quite a few days to get. We want to know why they took so long. Five days for us to really flat-footed of the prime minister to have taken quite a lot of time to go out to you. Shine to also have seemed to minimized it as a problem where eh not saying. It was a national emergency straightaway. It seemed that the campaign was really floundering at that. Point will lay feeling quite smug at that point. Yeah I think they were and I think there were aspects of. This is a close team around Jeremy. Corbyn effectively run a general election campaign before and it really did feel in those early days. The the Tories were making a series of sort of terrible missteps. That labor were able to capitalize on and they also quite quickly alighted on this idea of connecting brexit and Boris Johnson's version of Brexit. With the threat to the NHA. So we've now got evidence that under Boris Johnson the NHS is on table and will be up for sale two very strong issues that they got out there early. The peasants business running the campaign for the tourism cooled Isaac Libido he is former right hand man to Lynton crosby and very much seems to be in the crosby. I te mold of running elections actions which is safety first and having a small number of slogans that you hammer away over and over and over again we can get brexit done. We go seven days Brexit get it done by January thirty first and come out. Let's get brexit done. My friends get on with our P probably identify identify that with his campaign. Now he's got a small number of policies really that he's talking about all the time. Which are the twenty thousand police officers? We elite say the streets to be getting and the fifty thousand nurses which it subsequently emerged that not all of them will be new nurses qualifying beam thus retained his pad down the number of things. He's talking about a very slim number of things and that was reflected as well in the manifested through. She came quite late in the campaign again to minimize the potential for mistakes. Let's for sensible moderate tax cutting one nation conservative government. And take this country. Ford's thank you very much and it really honed down into these very few areas that he wants to focus on and of course returning people to Brexit and this idea uh-huh because after brexit done by January thirty even though of course it will drag on for years and years and years and have a in two thousand seventeen. The digital campaign for Labor was a massive thing is not the same this time round again. Yeah you've still got people in South side putting out very nice little slick videos and also there's a videographer. Who goes around? I'm with Cuban and takes little videos off him just launched on new manifesto. So I thought I'd take sixty seconds to run through his many. The policies of the mental is also putting out its own material of which is including I think more attacks against Boris Johnson. Johnson which is something that Jeremy Corbyn has tended personally to stay away from in that first interview. He did with him. He said they go wego high. But you've seen other senior diaper figures do that and you've certainly seen that in this multimedia material to say Boris Johnson lacks. A moral. Compass is like saying that the flat society lacks an actual compass to our we jealous in fact of Labour's incredible online out pope but they have made some changes in comparison to previous elections. They've got these two young dish leary's from New Zealand. Excellent and one of the hallmarks is shaky camera videos of Boris Johnson. Talking about his way. Like T- Varsha. I'm I'm good. How you what's been on your mind today with? The prime minister has been doing a lot of facebook life direct to the viewers type of many videos that spread across facebook. Good afternoon needed. I'm speaking to you live from my desk in Downing Street. And what media outlets in front of the line for interviews in the garden afraid not in front of the queue for major interviews have been the son which had a full absolute run through day on the campaign aim trial with or is Johnson. Day I I think genetic bunch late now I I. I sometimes succumbed flap Jax. We haven't been given a chance to have an in-depth grilling of him. But we've had a couple of questions as we asked him about his reaction to the London Bridge terror attack and politicizing it and which is what he was accused of pages by David Barrett. The father of Jack Merit. I'm GonNa Start Jack Merits. Let's father David Moore has said your response to the London. Bridge attack has been beyond disgusting and you also question. The Tory manifesto launch left the prime minister floundering. What was that about what happened was the conservatives changed their twitter handle from conservative? HQ to fact check UK's masquerading the fact is an independent fact checking and they go a whole heap of criticism including from Proper authentic fact checking organizations on twitter. South I'm afraid that the The twitter sphere is not really my My province but I what I what I can say is that I'm informed that don't the Labor have some sort of operation which is reinvested. Yes I was slowly taken by surprise probably because I was pretty sure he wasn't going to kill me for a question. They were sort of thrown off balance by the question. It's then started pretending that he had no idea what I was talking about. I I will. I will praise myself of the details of this but when it comes to as I say when it comes to trust import and then rambling on on about the content of the snark. There is one loose like the the hunting of the snark or the quest. The onset of Fermat's it's lost theorem more the riddle of the Sphinx. The Bermuda Triangle. He was like twitter. Look loud and the revealing thing is actually that. I'd also exactly not the same question a week earlier. Off Camera Sensing unexplained exactly what had happened. He didn't know what you did in terms of the media strategy more broadly. I mean I was amazed that when we tried item fail to get Jeremy Corbyn onto namesake's they said they haven't spoken to a single podcast so presumably it's quite traditional. Yeah I think is what tradition in a way. They've done plenty of those how's set-piece broadcasting's fees including of course that mom with Andrew Nailed it. Some Boris Johnson has dodged. Wouldn't you like to take this opportunity tonight to apologize apologize to the British Jewish community for what happened. What else I is this? I am determined that our society will be safe for people of all. Oh face I don KNAPP was aside Jeremy Corbyn he was tired. I think he can be a bit techy. He can bear defensive. Can I explain what we're trying to do you. Have you been given plenty of time to do. I asked you if you wanted to. He can also be Roy and warm and very happy to answer questions. I asked him a question last week at a press conference otherwise about brexit about Anti Semitism. And you know he owns a very robustly. But in that Neil interview you saw less pleasant side of him unfortunately that was the clip that then got shown on. Have I got news for you on the Friday. Night as a representation of Labor's campaign for that week Rowena Corbin and clearly felt stung by his under Neil interview. Not least because Labor for Boris Johnson was going to do as well in fact the prime minister. Although he's done head to head debates is refusing to do this despite all the other leaders putting themselves up for grilling that's bad. Isn't it bad for the BBC and bad for him is terrible really and an acknowledgement. That Andrew Nail is a very ferocious interviewer. They were furious when Andrea Neil had a popper. Ah Boris Johnson that went viral and has probably now been watch more on twitter. The actual program would have been. We have an interview prepared oven. Ready as Mister Johnson likes to say the theme running through our questions is trust and why so many times in his career in politics journalism critics and sometimes even those close to oh him of deemed him to be untrustworthy. It's just one of those things I think. The Tory campaign. We'll have taken the calculation that they can just get away with effectively because qualified people won't know Andrew Neil and the difference between him and other interviews. They might see him. Doing some debates awesome more softball programs such as this this morning. Good Morning Philip Scofield and Holly Willoughby although they were very tough on on Jeremy Corbyn and they did manage to get. I wanted to apologize for his comments about Muslim. Woman wearing full face veil being like letterboxes. I think what people want to know is what are we gonNA do now. What is going to be prime minister? Why would you say something like that coop? Industrial of questions at press conferences and he does take questions from a wide set of publications and I should also say you. You and I have both been at press conferences. In the past. I think where journalists have been booed or criticized and they've made a point at pretty much every 'cause I've been to this time of saying about about jumping. Donald said it very strongly the other day it's journalists job to ask questions and we will not do. I think it's dawned on them that that's not a very comradely approach. And he's not a great. Look Okay so you you know front the key for a sit down but you have got up close and personal with Boris Johnson in this campaign. I mean I wouldn't say that US us. Bus does usually two of them one. As the broadcasters one has the print journalists on it and then prime minister travel separately in a privately chauffered car but we have been following him around. We went to very safe Tory seat. Actually in Seoul's Bray he was allowed out by his mind is to do a walk amongst the general public. I think they wanted somewhere where the public would probably be more supportive of empathy within a marginal seat. He wounded around the Christmas market and his the middle of the day since quitnow older people who seem fairly excited about adding selfish with him a it was a mixed reception where few people shouting Stop Brexit or shame Komo knew. How does he react to that? He just ignores it. He just moves on and look for the next fatal changes one of the key. Parts of Labour's campaign seems to be these policy launches at which Corbin might speak and take questions. Were they like labor is good at running these events right so they're fairly slate is a theme to them. There's often a sort of handout document. This usually the local candidate and perhaps perhaps one of a small group of prominent front benches. So that's kind of narrow group of people who have been rolled out in this campaign over and over and over again again. They are back along Baylee they are and Raina. They are Richard Bergen. All of these are northern voices. Is there not super remaining voices so people like kiss dominant Emmy thumper for example. Here we heard from a lot during the travails in parliament. Though we've heard a lot less for them Jessica the bus. I have had one brief moment on the bus. They don't make a habit of taking journalists on the bus in a way. It's a kind of private space for Jeremy Corbyn to be able to relax and for them to be able to talk about strategy and deal with issues not the no into Ski Journal. No absolutely not said there was one occasion. I'm where I was offered a quick interview with Angela. Rainier it was when Labor launched national education service in this chance to go back into education later on in life. And you're gonNA give speech and they said well yes you can interview her but only if you jump on the bus which took us from Blackpool football club the town center I think looked tape afterwards and it was SORTA twelve minutes of conversation with aren somewhere a little bit further down the bus. Was Jeremy Corbyn talking to his aid. Soften very early starts. Then you're sort of shipped out somewhere. You're not quite sure where you're going. Because the advisers are very keep it very close but usually these kind of events held workplaces like factory of Brexit supporting businessmen and so the workforce there even though they're giving a question and answer session then not really incentivized to ask anything particularly testing tough. The exception to that actually was a Kentucky side. He was Depot and some of the questions. That were really tough. One of them off to all you can cut tax everybody talks. Do you mean low tax for people like you you tax for people like us question coincide with God that he accidentally let slip one of his major manifesto policies. which was he was planning to raise the national insurance? I showed are. We're going to be cutting a national insurance Up to twelve thousand everything points to it being a mistake. They've always was thrown into the disarray and pulling Brokaw's interviews go up to speed and what the policy actually was. It must be interesting to watch how Jeremy Binns advisors behavior around him. It was one of an IRA dot and I'm sort of wondering aim with my laptop and bits of paraphernalia getting ready. And and an eight comes out. And sort of shuffles me out of the way because Jerry's about to arrive with with a lot of hand gestures beckoning books Jeremy's about to arrive. And they want a nice clear klay short of him coming into the building. Because that's part of the footage they want. They have police protection for the campaign. And I think he's I think he's quite enjoy that they say bounce. Get there on time you these police outriders you make sure that you get up and down the aim one in double quick time or whatever and obviously I was joking about getting up close impersonal too. And but you have been able to watch Boris Johnson at fairly close quarters join this election campaign and historically. He's always kind of used his charisma. Let's get out of difficult awkward situations you know when he was abroad during the London. Riots he came back brandishing a broom and suggesting he was helping the cleanup. He got stuck on a zip wire and just sort of manage to laugh it off but do you think since he's been prime minister. All of that doesn't really work for him. He hasn't played the clown quite so much but off camera still sort of joshing around and very different from previous Prime Minister Mister. He would waste maintain. Some degree of distance on the campaign trail of the reaction of the public is to sort of see him in some sort of long. Lost friend. shouting Boris Boris Atom. And trying to get cell field trying to give him a hug and then on the other hand you get a very visceral angry angry reaction from people shouting shame and liar and protesting outside all of his events. Does that bother him talking to people close to him. Yeah I think. His image of himself is very different from other people's image of him. He is used to when he was mayor of London. Failing like he was as a populist list politician but people have such strong feelings about the referendum and his behavior in it. I think it came as a shock to him. After that point he wasn't as as popular as he remembered during his campaigns and perhaps most prominently in recent times very serious questions about his relationship with Jennifer Gray who appears that he had an affair with over for years and yet she was winning contracts that were linked to the mayor of London. While he's been shrugging off these accusations by his personal life in front of the cameras is is something that Labour candidates have been exploiting a lot on the doorstep and several of them have told me that he doesn't go down well with women voters in particular Sheila. I'm at every opportunity. The bringing up his personal relationships including his inability to answer the question of how many children he's got and they claim that This is something that really is quite putting two women. Voters have the review ever seen Labor candidates mentioned Boris Johnson's personal life on the doorstep. I have seen it and I haven't seen Jeremy Corbyn do it and that's something that's really important to remember. Is that while. I'm trading Jeremy Corbyn around looking at the sort of overarching strategy and they're rushing message. Each individual candidates are very much honing their own messages on the doorstep and and using whichever aspect of Boris Johnson's disadvantages. They can. How does Jeremy Corbyn get treated by the public when you've seen him walking around sir? It's very divided. I've been on events with him where he gets an incredibly warm reception a bit like we saw in two thousand seventeen and then other occasions so the day when I interviewed Angie Raynor and then we sorta stop the Labor Boston. Blackpool town centre. I sort of stood around for well. He gave a speech and I mean there was a car that slowdown roll down. The window beeped. Its whole hole and a number of Gestures laid out the passenger window. There was another woman who came out and berated. WanNa Jeremy Corbyn advisors about you know how could he lay a wreath at the remembrance. Sunday service when he doesn't support our troops. It was a very short stop. It was only five or ten minutes but there was a lot of hostility. There you know. He acknowledges they asked him about this list. Bates from Channel Four asked him. I've been talking to work until voters up and down the country and a lot of them. Say I don't not Jeremy Corbyn with which is something candidates you here on the doorstep and he said some people like Marmite and some people don't like it but I think it's good for you one of the few tongue-in-cheek moments of the press conference but it was a sort of a riot knowledge moment that he is quite a divisive figure and he knows he doesn't go down well in every household in the country. Rowena Kuban is admitting he's divisive on the doorstep and it's it's pretty clear from what you've said to us that the same is true for Boris. Johnson People WanNA get selfie with him more berate him as an offensive liar as we reach the end of this campaign. It seems that the Tories are pretty confident. Yesterday Johnson was a fish market in grimsby which hasn't had a tory. M P since nineteen forty five live but as you say it's not been a perfect campaign has it. In terms of the polling. Since the beginning of the campaign conservatives have dropped slightly and and Labour had gone out so the gap in the polls has narrowed but not as much as it did in the two thousand seventeen campaign and with a few days to go the gap. It's still possibly enough for burst Johnson to win a majority. Have a where calling you late on Monday. Because I know you've made it onto the Labour bus again. You've been out with Jeremy. Corbyn interviewing him for the Guardian. And it's interesting because we've just been hearing about how Labor remains stubbornly behind in the polls. What's the mood Jimmy? Kobe by Relax Knox today. I'll have to say I was speaking to him off the big rally. He did in Bristol which is really a sort of geeing up the activist type event. You know there were like a couple thousand people though bt gave a speech not cheering you know normally sunny day home crown fields to it and he was quite relaxed on the bus chassis. You know one point. We're going to this country site on the outskirts of Stroud. Any kind of breaks into what sounds like the country China coach tour and on your white ladies and dental and you know if they were very relaxed because this is coming to an end. But don't know so. I often of course what what you do on Friday morning. If you don't win you know there's been speculation that you might Step aside what interests that question will fighting is to win it We also talks talks about. What are the big stories in the news today? which is this poor little for your old life? He was pictured on the front of the daddy there this morning. Nine in a corridor at a hospital in AIDS with chips and things coming out of him because there wasn't any beds and it was a very audience. Isn't this morning where the prime minister will show a picture of that foyer by journalists and refuse to look at it only owned and to reporters away from him and puts it in his pocket which was just they felt like a symbolic moments or else Jimmy Kuban about that who you know. He wouldn't behave like that and he thought it was a very old but interestingly didn't do titians would have Dunham really go for Jones note and you know I said to him Shoot you if attacked I. Don't this is something you hear from Labor inside. It's quite. I think we really not going for Johnson wanting to talk him and I said Jeremy Copen Hall to land blows endorsed jumping and he really sort of made a bit of a face look impressed. That's the tool and said I'm not a boxer. You know some people would like me to be more more attacking up but it's not my style and it's quite interesting because it seems to me to encapsulate you like quite a bit about the way Labor folks campaign that was political editor Heather Stewart and deputy Rohingya Mason. You need to be following Bam and the rest of their brilliant Westminster team including Andrew Hendry Sparrow with his politics light blog over the next few days and beyond Goto Guardian Dot Com coming up Guardian Australia's Gabrielle Jackson Jackson on life under wildfire. Smoke now. Wildfires are not new for Australia but this year the sheer scale and distribution of fires is affecting the country like never before but while smoke-filled cities and burning rainforests provoking an unprecedented national conversation on Climate Change Guardian Audion Australia's Gabrielle. Jackson isn't sure that politicians or the media Aleksandra The smart smells like everything is on fire good slack. An acidic kind of metallic tastes in the back of your throat. I've lived in Sydney for thirty years. I've never seen anything like could. The city is just covered in blankets of smoke. The kind of get into your lungs. I've worked up and thought my house was on fire. I actually had had to get up out of my bid and check every window to save fazal burning around me because the smoke was so thick in my house. These fires vias a unprecedented in terms of the number of hectares burnt the area that has burnt so fast. Since the start of this fire season is three point nine million hectares that's bigger than wiles whilst he has always had bushfires but usually it's a concern of people who live in the country or live in forested stood areas now that the smoke is descending on cities it's really felt all the way around the country and it's not just that the FIS happening in one place vice as is usually the case fires happening in Western Australia. South Australia Victoria. Tasmania New South Wales Queensland. All at the same time what's burning now how is what eucalypt forests and actually sub tropical rainforests. We've never seen fires of this intensity in the places that they're burning running now and at Scorza via fix on the ecosystem and the ecology of those areas in one part of the New South Wales. They predict that about three hundred fifty. Koalas have died. You clips Have evolved to regenerate quickly but the fires of so harsh the ecologist holiest actually don't know how long it will take to regenerate this time and whether the Kuala population there can even survive Australia has baning quite severe drought in eastern parts of the country. For at least five five. He is this so much dry matter on the ground that can catch a lot easily. Are the three lightning strikes all through things like electricity power lines falling down Alan sparking FIS. You can't draw a direct line between climate change and these particular bushfires but climate change will make bushfires more severe and more intense and they make the bushfire season longer. So what we saw these see for the first time is the first week of spring a subtropical rainforest in Queensland Slam was on fire. That's that's crazy. We have a situation in Australia where the climate change debate has become really party political for for ten years. The conservative government coalition has just not been able to come up with a real climate change policy six years ago. They a Bait Labor on the back of a promise to repeal carbon tax a Labor government had put in place. A lot of the media is in support of a a government not having a real climate change policy. It's hard to say how things can change but the school climate strikes. I think have been really really positive. In terms of how many people have turned out. And how strongly young people feel about this issue and for that reason. I think it's not possible. Oh frustration governments to continue for much longer without some kind of policy so that was Gabrielle. Jackson Associate News editor at Guardian Australia. Before we finish today. I want to tell you that recently our very own Akzo so Kakuta won the Gold Award for best sound designer at the audio production awards beating an amazing lineup of nominees. I hope you can tell from today's focus episodes. Just how brilliant he is. We're really proud of him. That's it for today but keep listening we take you through this momentous political week. My thanks to Heather Stewart Rowena Mason and Gabrielle Jackson. This episode was produced by Hanna. More and Courtney Yousef sound design was by Axel Kukuchi. The executive producers are still may not and Nicole Jackson. We'll be back tomorrow

Mister Johnson Jeremy Corbyn Labor prime minister Brexit Jeremy Jeremy Corbyn Heather Prime Minister Australia twitter Boris Boris Atom Political editor Guardians London Alan cans Rowena Corbin Lynton crosby Jaffna
The Tories are off to a rocky start - can they turn things around?

Coffee House Shots

16:12 min | 9 months ago

The Tories are off to a rocky start - can they turn things around?

"Just before you start listening to this. podcast reminded that we have a special subscription offer. He can at twelve issues of the spectator for twelve pounds as well as the twenty pound Amazon voucher the go-to You spectator dot com forward slash voucher. If you'd like to get this offer coffeehouse shots but he says is dating and these days and daily politics podcast and on that note. We noted that there is several daily election pocus launching. I'd like listeners to remember that we've been ah always for you now. I'm joined by Jane. Saif and Marcus Roberts from YouGov and officially it's Day one of the campaign parliament's dissolved resolved bruce. Johnston has gone to see the Queen. He stood on the steps of Downing Street and declared that the campaign is on yet the Conservatives. Go into this. Having we had a difficult few days and James. I thought this was almost summed up and James Cleverly appear on the today programme this morning and instead of taking had to what the party she plans to the Fisher launched night. He had to deal with accusations against one cabinet minister who has since resigned. He had to talk about Jacob comments on Granville Andrew Bridge in the conserved. MP's comments trying to defend Jacob and had to deal a fake news right so how'd Conservatives Lick today is it fair to say the campaign has knock off to the best of our in how to torrid start the campaign now you can save these errors. There's all kind of individual areas they reflect a kind of campaign strategy. But I mean the problem for the Tories is the the errors imply to negative views. Voters have often. You have a multimillionaire cabinet minister suggesting that it would have been common sense to leave a building in a way that people living in a council didn't announce what he would have done movie. He'll done more more. People have survived. Jake SAKIC's mark. Yes I think. He fought through what he was saying. But that is how it has come across in how it is being played in the metro. There's an easterner that has lots of circulation and readership gets picked up against that gets left behind on trains and buses. It is without story on its front page. When you have Allen can't and so I think it is safe says no one of the best known members of the Cabinet? But here's a sexually state for wells are important battleground. He was sorry he was actually Dave Wells important battleground around in this campaign and he has had to resign because he endures someone to be a candidate who he appears to have known hide had collapsed a rape trial by giving evidence related to the victim's sexual history with zinc criticized by the judge for doing so and again that that suggests that the Therese Areso uncaring about other people in vence themselves at the expense of others the these all behind the it makes it a fundamentally bad start to the campaign for them. I don't think it puts more pressure on Boris Johnson. I launched now because it he has to change the school weber to move the debate or I and I think the problem for the Tories. They had a very quiet week. They essentially lead allowed to get out of the block saying well. We're going to do the transition from government to campaigning. And then we'll go for it and then on this first aid has taken on a greater reporting for them because of at Barrow new cycle has been stepped on by their mistakes. Marcus on that James Hutchison. The fact that today is the day that the Conservatives plan to kick start their campaign but other parties have been campaigning for some time and the Conservatives having going along with that issuing attack lines responding bit has filed under malt on this focus that almost labor have been leading the news agenda The past week. That might might not change. But do you think that's been a mistake. Staked the Tories to almost let their space dominated by different party. Yes I do and I think it's explained by your use of the word in your introduction of officially that stays officially started the campaign and I wonder to what extent of his at the spectator of written about this previously that this is shaped by a bad case ace of government titus that unfortunately for the Conservatives they have a mindset that says we're in government and the the campaign doesn't start officially for another week and therefore will continue governing wrapping up parliament's until then whereas in the public's mind and in certain opposition parties mind and especially in Labour's mind. The election started the moment. The election started. That was over a week ago and what has happened in that time. What has happened is the Labor Party is put on between four and six points from from where it was Roughly two weeks ago so the latest YouGov numbers have the Conservatives at Thirty Eight and Labor at twenty five now you could say that the Labor the Party was always going to get those voters back but how they got them back how easily they got back and how quickly they got them back matters. A better approach for the Conservatives would mean to have contested the media space would have been to have prevented that relies on the part of the Labor Party to the maximum extent impossible by making it harder for Labor to get airtime and that might have delayed the rise of those Labor returners as it is the Conservatives of just gifted labor the best start they could have hoped for James when it comes to the conserved message the papers today and the message recurrent getting to that they want Brexit Boris Johnson didn't want this election but he's going into any way. These are messages. We've had before now. We know that it comes to the playbook of to not be that repetitive messaging. Averaging is the way forward that the well whispers that we'd have a different stories talk about today and that was going to be a cost analysis of Labour's election plans pads or the manifest putting forward their policies. That didn't happen. Because apparently saw several stepped in and said the treasury couldn't have view civil servants to get these figures and now no one's quite sure whether figures are in relation to the public with the civil servants have them they were stopped midway but it does I say almost part of the tourist arsenal isn't ready because of a misunderstanding. Own Miscalculation of the rules. Yes I think that the difference. CHP Q. and A. Treasury estimate of cost is not that great but I think this is a mockup in that. Boris Johnson has been trying for election for quite some time time and it clearly would be more effective to have that done earlier. Also you know there are other ways you can divas one of the easy ways you can do. Is You have your own backbenches. Say asking parliamentary questions. And then this also has to please someone stands up and says can you tell me what the cost of the public sector will be of Labour's plans for a four day week and minister says no I call them but I will write back with the answer that point entirely properly civil service often say what the answer is and this is the tourist. I did a lot in the run-up to previous elections. I mean this is going to create a massive issue but if you get it raises. The military bodies river is dealing with the specter actor of two thousand seventeen so when anything goes wrong everyone begins to panic and says Oh my God it's GonNa be twenty seventeen all over again and one is on. The other stuff is in is errors by individuals this costing muck up but is a twenty seventeen style era in something that strategically has gone wrong. Somewhere in the system and Marcus. If we we've mentioned many things have gone wrong or to be kind not going right for the conservative. So far Wendy. NTSB can start to see where these things have had an impact on the conservative standing in the polls with ever elected. And I suppose we'll generally what is is the utilize plays pace to know. When you have cut for you on Initi- yeah so if an issues affecting brand you expect to see that firstly very intensely very quickly but secondly you expect that position to be sustained over a period of time so you'd look to see a sharp up tick or sharp drop Nepal and then you look to see that number more or less stay within that band for a period of weeks thereafter? So there's different indicators that we should look at that might tell us the story of how this election is playing out with with voters beyond just the headline horse race. There's the Horse Race for best prime minister at the moment. Boris Johnson has a commanding advantage. There forty forty three to twenty per release YouGov best. PM numbers but more conservatively for a Conservative Party that wants to run a brexit general election. Over the course of the last ten days we've seen Brexit as the most important issue fall from seventy percent to fifty-nine percent. We've now seen scene health rise a couple of points to thirty seven. We've seen concern about the economy rise to twenty nine. We've seen concern that the the environment is the number one issue facing voters up to twenty six percent so twenty six points rather so now this is a really interesting situation. In which the brexit number continues he needs to be chipped away at at a host of other issues. Continue to rise. You can see why strategist would worry again about a twenty seventeen relapse James just on CCS strategise. Could you talk us. Free the top team on this election because there's been some talk. Dominic Cummings is seen as brushing Smith senior aide in Downing Street but it's not dominant commits. He's in charge of this is is. VDI Say what does the shape of those in charge of this campaign looked like so as it is as is Constitutional Club with a twenty is in Australia has been drafted into run the campaign. He wasn't as and Cosby's firm he worked on Scott Morrison's thousands successful campaign. Sit prising indeed in Australia and he is he is going in day-to-day charge of the campaign. Pain now I think don't cummings is going to stay in Downing Street for the campaign so he's not gonNA NCC HQ. I will but but what I think is one thing worth not as the Libido has as not in terms of the electron messages in terms of the overall government position has inherited a pitch H.. Because Lynton Crosby is always been the the Tory party shouldn't talk about the NHL because you just like any more ministry because you just raise the settings when Abra she dominic Dominic Cummings is view is always been too big issue in British politics to try and ignore it or try and put it in a box he is always wanted to proactively talk about it. So this campaign. We'll be very much like some integral campaigns. You've seen in the past the attempt to create the fourth choice. You know. There's a lot of twenty fifteen in his campaign already in it. It's you you get brexit. Donald Boris or two referendums. Jeremy Corbyn is calcified milliband versus what was the all or stable government. Move David Cameron. Yeah so there's all of our but you'll see a lot more. NHS from the Tories that you would the newness in classic Crosby Campaign Marcus on that. Do you think meshes still still have strong level potency. We're voters because we've had warnings of referendums four. I'm taking a coalition of chaos comedy time. I've had my friend's home petit the Political Louisa because people look the Kirschner casting from the Conservatives the past couple of years and necessarily avoid if you the last word anyway so do you think warnings about referendums chaos on the SMP labor side still have the same cut free after several years of government. That hasn't mean particularly smooth. No I don't think they do because I think the it's the same with even if the NFIP successful in getting this dossier about Labor finances Out I generally think voters have more or less priced in the fact that Jeremy Corbyn wants to borrow a lot of money tax. A lot of people spend a lot of money. That's that's baked in. Can I also think that it's kind of baked in that. There's a choice between the Conservatives and there's a choice between other parties potentially working to a greater or lesser extent together indeed that could be potentially dangerous for the Conservatives if it helps voters self Schwartz in terms of tactical voting organization to find find a new one thousand nine hundred seven style scenario in which voters know who it is in each seat. They want themselves vote for that. Has the best chance of beating conservatives so in these instances. I'm not sure that the old Tory playbook of just repeating these top line concerns about chaos under under an alternative to unto the Conservatives as government or labour profligacy of spending going to be quite as effective as the conservative hope. Where do you think the main fighter concerns Arslan Arlon when it comes to the choice I mean what what do you think is the most potent issues? There's going to be a a real tension between the extent to which this is brexit election the extent to which this is a presidential race for prime minister between Johnson and Corbin and extent to which this is about all other issues. The Labor Party desperately want to be number three. This isn't an election which we're talking about hospitals now which we're talking about environment which we're talking about. Police cuts talking about overcrowded classrooms. They point he's going to be very happy. If this is an election that is constantly about. There's a choice between Johnson and Corbyn. Prime Minister and the Labor Party is going to stop brexit from happening. Then it's more headache. James finally given the campaign is now official. What can we expects in the coming days in terms of the schedule for this because Labor have had planned so much being leaked in terms of Brexit Day? NHTSA ARE WE GONNA see the Conservatives gang for similar gritted days so armee one of the most interesting things is so tonight. We'll have this. Boris Johnson Launch Seven. I in the Midlands. which is what the Tories? Interestingly Batori regard the Midland's is the key battleground more important than anywhere else to them and I think that is a big test because one of the things. The Tories are relying on is Boris Johnson. Abilities as a campaigner he enjoys be now campaigning. He enjoys beam of a crowd. Does that come across. And does that create the footage that they need to wit to lead the ten o'clock news. Tonight they will leads on what needs because it's all going to create enough of it regularly enough to get those lead news. Bulletins I mean. Interestingly tomorrow savage Abby Johnson going to be out and that is interesting in twenty seventeen there was very little to reactivate message and I think it is striking. That they'll going to try and attack Labor on the economy straight straightaway. I think they have a view one councilman says that means morning. We've got pretty much full employment and rising wages because sell that message and go off the Labor on Nick on the economic competence. How tomorrow lands is going to be quite important? I'm not so sure. Even that is the right call for the Conservatives here because Governments that tried to tell voters your doing great reelect us tend to encounter the reality that voters seldom ever say. Thank you a better approach. which is a sort of President Obama? Twenty twelve reelection style which is as

Brexit Boris Johnson James Hutchison Labor Party YouGov Jacob prime minister Marcus Roberts Lynton Crosby Conservative Party dominic Dominic Cummings Abby Johnson Labor Jeremy Corbyn Fisher Jane Granville Andrew Bridge Amazon Johnston treasury
Will Labour's NHS offensive swing the election?

Coffee House Shots

18:08 min | 8 months ago

Will Labour's NHS offensive swing the election?

"Just before you start listening to this. podcast reminded that we have a special subscription. He can at twelve issues with the spectator for twelve pounds as well as the twenty pound Amazon Voucher. The GO-TO YOU SPECTATOR DOT com forward slash voucher. If you like to get this offer unwelcomed coffeehouse shows spectators take daily politics. podcast I'm Cindy and I'm joined by Katie Booze and James for safe so today. The conservative campaign is trying to get itself back on track after yesterday turned handout. Be possibly the worst day for them. So far started off with Boris Johnson refusing to look at a picture of a four year old boy lying on the floor of Asia's hospital when questioned by an. It generalist I Katie. What happened then will versions refused? Look when he was presented The pitcher by J Pike have from our TV and then when he kept the John This Cup putting their in front of versions of responded by taking the fight opinions Polka and he have second thoughts by. This theresa may levels of awkwardness. You take the phone I think web before during some injuries make comparisons quite low. Yesterday was because it seemed fatty rebutting response so instead of I suppose saying empathy on having an emotive response Boris Johnson kept pirating lines on the NHL on funding the NHL. It's almost like a breaking record while picnics vein away. He seemed to have second thoughts on the phone. GotTa back out but quite quickly spiralled. You had to clip. It's TS front and have ice by getting viral online and it and it went from that it ends up Matt Hancock in to try and comes ration- dance to a hospital in leads to get into the health secretary did that but that point things. Go Fatty Nasty. There were intense tensions. The two parties are labor activists who to that society but verbally are very critical to be about Mahan Coke and then stop report started circulate. The has aid had been punched changed then and that was advice John this on twitter then video merge Shane. He wasn't actually punched. What happened was an walked into on on March and it wouldn't be a punch tape walks into the arm of of Seven? He was he was later. And here's this about how angry they were about the Tory government so now I'm including annoyed lots on the Labor side because you definitely had a story online for half nab obtention whether it's suggesting activists at assaulted someone so I think for the end. I think the bigger picture here is the fact that yesterday was all about any jazz and call Tories in a negative light. And we know that the view and number ten and those figures you've number ten to see CHP from this campaign a very focused at times. The APP on the news at six and the news at ten and the news buttons and the volcano in New Zealand was the number one story. But this second story on this bulletins ends was owned by the NHS old Boy and the Prime Minister Refuses Liquor Photo of him so I think it was a bad day for the Tories and I think the question is serveral papers. Today you will find each other in the mayor. Have a pitcher of baby is left waiting the other stories coming at. Is this going to be the theme of who loved the final days of this campaign or all. The tourists can manage either. I suppose change the topic. Ooh Change Narrative on the issue. Japan Asia's because it needs to be something because what they wanted to spend the final few days as we discussed the podcast yesterday during was doubling. Dan Leckie messages. And and instead it's an injustice top story and that's exactly what neighbor one exactly with a tour eastern James Lynton Crosby USA Tori. She just not hooked by the NHL A tour in this campaign pain. They've just turned that on. Its head whether it's extra funding extra nurses disappear more compassionate and really just tackle without nhs point voters want to hear about but yesterday seems to have undone on a lot of effort I think the NATO simply too big issue in the country to not talk about the to the tour attempt to constantly change. Here's the conversation away from it. I think it would really struggle right now. Particularly struggle because Boris Johnson led the vote leave campaign which made such a big deal of leaving the EU. You so you could spend more money on on the jets and so I mean that was a viable strategy for the dunes election. I think yesterday is the risk of a winter election election when it's NHS under the most pressure on one particularly the most pressure on on children services is winter and yesterday was the. What was the risk of this? Is the the two big risks over introduction wanting to you know web events flooding and energy stored like this. Because you know the pressure's on the house of us and yet we haven't the hasn't been in this country yet. A big flu epidemic or anything like that. But you're obviously these pictures. Aw I as you say this is this is. This is not how mature as close ion seventy two hours away election forty dollars now because they want the message to and in the gridlock getting brexit on moving on labor when it to be about the NHL. So I think the challenge them is whether they can get back own to that design closing messages today you were saying it was just the worst every campaign for. It wasn't as bad today as the day when you had the Jacob Komo Grenfell comments and Alan cans resigning bar at the start of the campaign. Detroit did however several probably days one Adriano before they can got a grip on it over the risks. Taking the bleeding obvious at this point. They can't afford this to go on. They need to get back onto their own messages now. Yup and Katie. It does seem like they might have things working out for the now this morning indicated Fox website release an eleven minute conversation a recording of a conversation with shadow health secretary. Jonathan Ashworth being out battle for Labor this morning. But he's saying this sort of stuff you might hear from Tory activists instead of a member of Taber from bench here as we say. I don't think we're going to get back. Yeah I mean I would play monsters. They're not still stiers supplier breath. These traditional Arab is anyone in this middle at the the midwest outside of the city city seats Sort of small town Midland's Inau it's abysmal. Outlast I mean. They don't mind Johnson books. I found Cohen and latest Brexit I don't think that long term sort of Gaines Vittori posse by can well see them going Tori this election and they fly up together. Presumably would fall. You know the main bucks but even the sketches no. I think I think kind of middle class graduates to the remaining. He people late was probably doing well above and sort of let them to public doing well but not in big enough numbers to deny the. It's always a majority is bonding I think of Apple said number ten. I think the the the the machine will quickly move to site. Scott I mean simple steps machine I mean Katie. What what are the political ramifications of this so the recordings comfortable listening for anyone who in the Labor Party in the sense? You have the health sector being very frank frank in his assessment of Jeremy Coleman someone who is unpopular on the do step tasty in these movin labor held seats or so worried about losing to the Tories. I think having a shadow cabinet member say in older. According they think number ten and various foods has been a government will have to get involved to restrain you leaders if they were to make it to. The place of High Office of Prime Minister is clearly quite damning as we normally have served Jeremy womanly talk about security security risks in terms of what this means for election race. Well clearly. The concept is moved topic away from the stories. I think that this has the potential to help them do. Ah for a couple of reasons. First off it's attention grabbing and I think this is going to be a story. It's going to run as the daycare on second just for the simple reason Otaly labor trying to tax tourism. NHS Today and they've been sending up. Jonathan Ashra Jimmy Dear Ryan try and land those points now whenever he. I appears on television or radio. He is going to be asked about his comments. Criticizing and expressing doubt in the suitability of his party leader to be prime minister and and that means they either going to have to send someone else. Isn't the House Secretary to talk. You may still be asked about it or they're going to have to accept that the message is going to not be solely on I suppose Tori issues on the edge us. Yeah I think that I think from the Tory point of view in various no memory Sharon cabinet. They would rav court out in this conversation by on the shadow health sexually because as Casey says it makes it much harder than ever Labor to bench on fresh off and we saw Barry Godhra Newsnight but the NHL attack is less effective when someone who is in doing that job. Isn't doing that brief tries to prosecuted. Oh they're not exact question. I think from the point of view of his analysis of a horse race and Quinn's unpopularity I doing not that surprising damaging today I think I think he is much more as about national security and this is somehow government machine would have to implications government. She would have somehow restrict journey with access to this stuff. This is quite wait. Extraordinary in this is someone who would be who is campaigning to make Jeremy Corbyn prime minister saying but there are certain things the the government machine would have to do to protect. I mean this is absolutely extraordinary away from the toys that because has Westminster loves a horse race story but the whole rice analysis of why the white hope middle class Guardian Reading Canterbury. But lose some of these New Orleans east as also. You would distract distract from that from that point I now I think I think in a way we now wait to see. Holly Hunter's drove Ashworth is meant doing a big hour-long into your own album delve evening. I'm I would be surprised if they decided to continue without Jonathan. I said that this makes him look like a right plonker. I mean the danger. The Labor is if a torching align going. But if I if this if this is even shadow cabinet think about him. What did you think about Jeremy? Corbyn I and I think ah the final point. Is You know sort of cabinets. Day about what they wanted to close the interview election to be and we all know at the Tories closing messages. Get brexit on this. Commencement thanked me. Look the only thing better. Frost and Brexit is corporate because Kuban appeals to both the iffy bits of Tory coalition to Tori Tori remain as it is fear of coping basically may means that they are sticking with the Tories and selection on lay believers on off on the Jeremy Corbyn. Either I mean Kenedy one of the things you keep hearing from Labor. MP's lay right to his resorts. Solely brexit issue not species the interaction of Brexit and Corwin with himself and say James on the front page of the Telegraph. Today we have a leaked memo from C. C. H. Q.. Really stressing how close this election is but sometimes it always reads as if it was the memo from a second referendum campaign were what are the similarities. They're both songs won't want to suggest. This election is really close because both signs wants to get that people to ton out and I mean. This is the challenge. The Tories one strand and the tourist big worry are they obviously. Yesterday was not a good day for the obvious potential problem for them. Today is as New People. Oh coming out at ten PM tonight. If shows a fairly comfortable Tory majority what they worry about. Is that least Tory voters you know. Not Venus motivates a ton out all torey remain in thinking. Oh I can stuck and give them a little kick by voicing Liberal Democrat and. There's no danger. Jeremy Corbyn will end up as prime minister and so they'll they want to emphasize its close for that reason and also the award they will have started to is that they would worry about those voters. Katie was married previously voted Labour. We're going to vote Tory on around. They see a comfortable tory-majority and they all. Maybe I don't have to do it. This time. Round May Brexit's going to get done anyway. Maybe I can vote my local local. MP who I like you know all those factors. so that's the Tory worry about it on the remain signed they want to basically ensure ever since. Don't give up hope. But they still out on they all very keen to encourage tobacco. Voting talk leading is that is a difficult thing to encourage. I think if you look back to to the point of the prime example where in recent history was the nineteen ninety seven election that was one easier to get tactical voting going because labor. Dem's hunt spent from Tony Anybody's election as Labour leader in ninety four but play footsie of each other to the extent. Remember the platform and might well have to be a coalition on the election so they seemed very politically close folks in this campaign labor in the loop Being being going at each other Jo Swinson says Jeremy Corbyn is unfit be province to Jeremy Corbyn never misses an opportunity to attack Lib Dem's for coalition and Austerity Nova and Zoe Internet times completing going now harder but if you do want Brexit to get gone you're lost best. Hope is mass Romania tactical voting. Because that's what could d-i-n-o-v-i-t-e Tourism George Casey in terms of coalition talks so far. We've not reconsidered the DP. But I mean as we get closer to through the deadline. What do you think the deep you could consider doing? If they did end up being kingmaker position once again John McDonnell yesterday in his speech left. Open the door food food coalition with the DP saying that they actually agreed on some things like higher wages. I forget the other areas of agreement. But do you think DP could lean either side Innis careless Asia making. I mean I think the if you wack labored depend very much in hued leader. The Labor Party is I think that he Jeremy Coleman and John McDonnell and the previous previous interactions when it comes to Irish politics are dating or something mason the DP could have a countenance and I think Nigel Dodds has been pretty clear and his opposition attention to those figures along with a deep. EMP's comments if you have a different Labour leader. I think things could start different but again it has to be from free. Not that wing of the Party and then obviously in terms of the Conservatives deep you've suggested they wouldn't but using the consensus wouldn't really want to be propped up by the DVD view because it means they have to write back on the Brexit and that's front and center of their entire campaign and the tourists have to try and piece together. A government propped up by the DP. He is not very stable government he behind an election again quite sane and. I think I did. The Tories. Election believe dumped the BREXIT. Bill they spent the whole of the election telling Halloween pass so they can stay in power for a couple of months. I don't think that has a tough decision isn't it. I mean if you're a DB Hans Ban away from majority I mean if you were Tories would you really say new hope and get into number ten instead. I mean having escaped campaigned on your brexit deal often ready to suddenly a junket for a bunch of the UPS's also wasn't so good after all also have difficulty in your own benches if you drought and suddenly say now going paying for no deal and I thought that was kind of interesting little store in the wind which was nice little jobs into the Sunday Telegraph when he said look if UK was aiming for tariff-free trade with the rest the va you bought with less involved concerns the deal was mauled interesting because the UK is aiming photography with the weather. It can get another question but that is definitely any the explicit aim Gumbo so by now at hemmings depress you both I silver in the event of a hung but the most linked knee hung hall. Moment is a Hong Paul. The Tories just showed the the if you believe always early models. The data practices one for Sunday Times. The toys of three ten is the kind of floor eaten. Go below VAT back and I mean if it always get close but Just not there. I think we could. Well we're heading for another election if they say February because I find it very hard to see how you could put together a governing arrangement on the side of the aisle because if Labour conservatories of majority Jeremy Corbyn would be inclined to step down. Joe's Winstons being buried them in the she would never put Jeremy Corbyn ten. You call in the DP and I have ten. MP's off but it's group of MP's saying okay. That's put Jeremy Corbyn Enjoyment Oland number ten given Katie says United Ireland. So I I have you could well anomalous situation where where nothing can happen in the next parliament. And they can't even agree on a second referendum. So they have no choice but to say okay. Let's let's all go again. Invertebrate just looked at my phone and we into here by Friday thirteenth election. The sense of that's when we get the results and if you hadn't February could potentially Friday the forty February Valentine's Day she's so lovely for everyone definitely will be very lovely February election. Thanks Katie and in James and tomorrow we'll be joined again by you guys Marcus Roberts to talk about his Amal people tonight. Thanks listening and join us again then

Jeremy Corbyn Katie Booze prime minister Brexit Boris Johnson NHL James Lynton Crosby NHS Jeremy Labor Party Brexit secretary John McDonnell Tori Tori Jeremy Coleman Jonathan Ashworth George Casey Amazon theresa
Can Boris still blow it?

Coffee House Shots

14:13 min | 9 months ago

Can Boris still blow it?

"Hello and welcome to coffee. Shot spectators daily in these days. David unto two weeks weeks now until polling day and the Tories are still in the lead and people this week which got Westminster. Very excited suggested the Tories had there been an election this this week. We've won a majority in the region of sixty eight however as phrases hasn't as Telegraph column as we discuss on this podcast. There was still plenty of time for the Tories to blow it and there are some early signs as if you look at the days ahead that there are some obstacles they are going to have to and we will now go free. There's various ones but I think to begin with. That's just took fast about Bruce. Johnson and television appearances and scrutiny. Now openly on Thursday night we had a situation from abortions did not do the channel climate leaders debate instead. The Tories did organize a stunt of the rain. which went some way too distracting from this by sending Michael Grove data trying to get onto the stage not being allowed to do so and now there's another on about whether or not? Boris Johnson is going to face Andrew. Neil in the one to one lead interviews interviews every other mainly has agreed to this. And there's some talk that Berge can be bought from gay on the Angie safer until he agrees to this phrase raise. It has a slight with a twenty seventeen. Doesn't it in terms of Theresa. May's reluctance to go on. Various stages do set piece events. Boris Johnson's since allies would say we'll actually know how many things he's done already but if you take them in succession is not the best. Look no it's notes. I mean I do understand logic nick for a prime minister not doing these debates they tend to benefit the Challenger and the prime minister is ahead in the polls he would say look. What do I have to gain by stepping into this arena arena? I can also understand the logic saying look you journalist. You just want these debates for your own entertainment in your TV ratings. It's not to do with democracy. He is just all about you but the thing is we are. We are with these campaigns. The leadership debates have become a fairly big staple elections now over the course of his decades since David Cameron introduced them ten years ago. No so far. We've seen leaders debates. I haven't been that eliminating but we had the one to one interview and Renew Jeremy Corbyn Andrew Nicholas Sturgeon that were lot more illuminating allowed for follow up questions wherever leaders will through through the mincer. And it's always interesting to see how they fare. It looks a little bit cowardly. I'm afraid to save for Boris Johnson. To say okay let Corbin go through that Minster. Let Nicholas George. But I am not going to do. It's because I just didn't fancy it and the risk is that it can lead to the impression that you're taking the election victory for granted that you are adopting a safety first strategy and that you don't really think you've got to go out there to earn the votes of the people who are thinking thinking of you to support. IMA general election. The risk is that could backfire embarrassed that he looks lazy for looks complacent and he looks as if he's afraid of offer scrutiny. Rivals subjected themselves to James During the leadership contest. Boris Johnson did have a one on one interview. Angie Neal he still became came leader at Torrey Party and prime minister. So what's the difference in approach here. I think he was scheduled quite late in the process off. Most of the post-war it's out but I think he should do the interview for the simple reason this which is both Jeremy Corbyn and Nicholas Sturgeon had a tough time holding tweet but it was much less bound for Nicholas version than it was Jeremy Corbyn cushy made not perfect but much better fister defending her position and and then he wanted to be promised with United Kingdom. You'll be confident that you can get a half an hour interview defending you'll positions on a whole series issues. I mean these half an now in twos expose in a way. Were leaders debate. Don't because they allow forensic follow ups is weakness in position. You couldn't watch the android into into Nicholas Sturgeon and not. Come away from it thinking the S&P don't really have a proper answer to for currency question. You can watch animals into Jeremy Kuban. No come away the whole series the Ford about the fact that Germany doesn't seem to realize that government bonds government debt. But he seems deeply confused about what he would do a situation where you can take out what you could potentially take out the leader of terrorist groups such as Islamic state and that he he doesn't point you obviously doesn't really realize the scale and the gravity of the problem that we talked about Anti Semitism awesome. News is how the Rings not apologize but he denied that the problem has got worse since he became leader. I think Boris Johnson should be confident that he he is standing on a decent decent a pretty decent perspectives to become prime minister. And the only thing you can defend that perspectives in a half an hour or two and tonight we will not be seeing Boris Johnson on our television screens either but this is a preplanned non-attendance in the BBC's multi-party debate and you pay labour and the Tories sending on representatives who you need the Kuban Johnson's. Rebecca Long Baby Food Labor anniversary soon. ACT The conservatives James because leaders are not involved in this it does feel as though this is is perhaps less high stakes but you think there is still important in a debate like this for the Tories and is holding the line. There are so many parties in this he did in. The sense is going to be difficult for anyone to really is home to win a seven way debate similar similarly if we the other night the the Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn it was quite scrappy because of the format. I mean this is going to be even crappier because you're going to have seven people trying to speak up and make their case that points. I think the a big event is that is this time next week when we have the final. Boris Johnson. Jeremy Corbyn head to head debate on the BBC of the remaining TV debate as indefeasibly. Yeah that is the big the big moment say phrase of what else can go wrong. In the time we have left because he looked that Emma peephole this week yes yes. The Tories strategy in the mountains north seems to be paying off in winning some of these seats but the fractions at tiny as you look at some of these percentages one percent hair in that could really change a labor. She GonNa take these seats now. Professor Joan Curtis is that he thinks Arizona and is chance at being at Labor majority. But that's not talking about a Labor minority government propped up by SMP. Well it's funny. How often near zero percent? Chances Come true. I remember in twenty 2016 Princeton University. This model which is had predicted the two thousand twelve. US presidential election correctly and therefore there was a one percent chance of Donald Trump winning which he did Vernon Twenty fifteen. You had populous. Who came along with with what? They called the predictor. Not just an opinion pollster. They said it was lots of socio. Economic mkx data plugged into it. And they calculate your abilities to a fraction of a decimal point so you would have said zero point. Five percent chance of David Ever Cameron winning a majority a couple of weeks later. And that's exactly what he did so I think we ought to remember that opinion. Pollsters are still trying to adjust adjust to the new voting patterns were seeing on both sides of the Atlantic and until they get at least two elections right. I think we should all be rather cautious about their claims to have invented new technology. That can get the next election right and in fact during the seven days it took you. You got to do this. Pools the Tory lead went down by. I think sixteen seats. They had to knock off until they got to sixty eight. It doesn't take that much more of this trend continuing for the Tour de Majority to evaporate and slip through the prime minister's fingers quite quickly Jamison in response to this. What do you think the Conservative's strategy for the final part of the campaign is going to be doubling down or is it trying to actually change the pivot or pivoting different approach? Anything's everything's trying to make sure people too so I mean the first bit of us. Russia is desperate attempt to get Donald Trump. Not to say anything on his visit. Here today are very telling the boy shorts in this morning was basically saying to Donald Trump. Please stay out of our election. Remember how Barack Obama's intervention in two thousand sixteen referendum campaign backfire. I mean this was very public. Diplomacy please please. Don't say anything I I mean to feed them. We noticed that he was developing campaign cold. which could be the best defense given trump's Germanophobia against trump trying to get too close to the NATO summit offering the Tory message? The campaign is going to be we've gotTA GET Brexit. Don's country can move forward. That was a female surprising. Exactly the vows the theme of their press conference today and also it's going to be very like two thousand fifteen and this is where the you Goalpara. It provides them a problem which is going to be. It's I've Ashura hung parliament and if it's a hung parliament it's going to be the scholars nationalist calling the shots. Do you want that. I think we're GONNA see those. These two messages driven home relentlessly in the final week get brexit. Done is enough though. I mean sure that we never the BREXIT party voters. But what if they've really squeeze he's as much as they're going to add to that particular action and that right now as twenty seventeen people were thinking of domestic questions and finding which recent of much to say because I think they have have a decent argument but if next year is about another referendum. You won't get. I mean the twenty messages at its strongest when it's get brexit done so we can do X. Files Not oh hearing much of excellent point manifesto and say will would all you panting Steve because it has been but I've asked remarkable for its lack of ambition in many areas. Though I think the reason the manifest they seem so ambitious is exam done quite a lot in the first hundred days on an H.. Schools funding all. Those things. I think is interesting is wealth remembering how how the narrative changes which is a few weeks ago. Everyone was talking about. How can a fiscally reckless the Tories were? We've always big spending commitments now. Everyone's run saint by very ambitious in porn is because Labor's commitments all so bold so out there. Everything else pales in comparison Fraser. Razer is one potential issue. There isn't that because yes the narratives changed if the touristic more steak. Describe one of the things that leave every tapped into the referendum. Was this this idea of change and if the to restart look like perhaps not to us twenty seventeen the stable choice. That isn't necessarily going to get your high turn of non natives. People who don't know mediate t gallon. Vote for the Conservative Party. Your remember Lynton crosby saying in the two thousand fifteen campaign with the Tories triumphed. I am too gangsta laws. Look he was saying. Journalists complained all the time. How boring the message was you said Ed milliband gave them more stimulating campaign but these campaigns are not for the entertainment amount of journalists? This is to get a message across and if as a boarding message then maybe it stands a chance of getting into voters heads of his repetitive. Again that is ludicrously. It was proved right during their campaign. Everybody else was proved wrong. It could will be that the same tactics will prevail right now get brexit done is all you need to. I'm getting toward the majority for this campaign. That's what can I say I. I'm a journalist. I do quite want to know what's Boris Jones is going to do power any guests. When I read and the interview in this week's potato of James I thought finally he sings up meals because if he was saying that? Look I'm not the continuity candidate on lots the business of torture and misses the first before his Johnson of assume anything's we're going to do differently. I wanted to to change this change. That and I thought well finally he's perhaps adding a the second component to his rather boring election. Message get brexit done so we can do X. Y. instead but other than interview with you. I haven't heard much much along those lines. It doesn't work out. Whether like David Cameron the borders Johnson is frustrated and wants to say more but he's being told not to by his advisors or whether the the Tory campaign thinks no we want him to start at living on how he's going to transform transform that we just want to talk about brexit other think Asian Asian. I was struck by the not not not presumed speaker. Katie's both but what four one eight nine even distancing himself from austerity but uh also emphasis on how he would have a different agenda. This wouldn't be continuity. Governments will be changed. I think there is a big I would say goodnight -cause into the I did but I the basic indication that all were treasury rules on the funding infrastructure projects. They're going to be ripped up. So you get more infrastructure bill outside London southeast and so so if it was very radical he was saying look basically saying look Osborne's treasury they would assess these regions worker economically productive and if they failed a cooled heart attest they wouldn't get the money. Well I'm going to give them the money the I'm going to focus on regional inequality and that could have been really interesting to eat. Doesn't seem to be taking it much. Further perhaps him more of that in their coming days as particularly if the polls start to tighten the need to find a knee gear. And while we have you here you'd let him move from us but this time in a live setting we. Heaven event in January coffee has live the year ahead where myself Fraser and James we joined by some guests here. We get to invite and select and that'd be Emmanuel Center and all details on our events website. We don't yet know worksite. We would be discussing because it would be somewhat packed on the result come December twelve. Thank you James. Thank you Fraser. You won't see smile the she.

Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn Andrew Nicholas Tories prime minister David Ever Cameron Donald Trump Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn James I Labor Angie Neal Fraser Nicholas George Jeremy Kuban Bruce Theresa Neil Berge Boris Jones Michael Grove
 The Tories and their Islamophobia problem  podcast

Today in Focus

26:31 min | 1 year ago

The Tories and their Islamophobia problem podcast

"Today foam, a conservative chaff site of our seat on the party's problem with Islam phobia and the guardians meteor at Jim Watterson on who's behind. Facebook's mysterious. Brexit ads. Was should not be public live Muslim should be removed from our schools Muslim should be thrown off bridges Muslim should be deported. Simply for raising the issue of Islam phobia. Apparently, those vile comments were made by conservative councillors and candidates questions being asked about the way in which Theresa May and the party chair. Brandon Lewis have dealt with complaints more than a dozen members suspended by the Tories and then quietly let back in. A now this fresh criticism as the party refuses to accept a new definition of Islam phobia Aggripa labor in the lift dams from the guardian I'm new Astana today. Focus conservative peer and former chess ADA varsity on her party's problem with this phobia. We'll just tell me how much of a feature of your life. Growing up was religion race. Religion wasn't a feat actually grown race. Was you didn't know whether somebody was was more Hindu ac- Koi? Stop or whatever it was just British Asians. I think the same when I was growing up. I was the author as an Asian, and we were all Packie's, basically back. You was the term that was used for the likes of me and for everybody else. And it didn't really matter where you came from. But that was the catch all and it was all about the color of your skin. You. I remember feeling really upset when people call me, a pack. Oh, I think he did as a child, but I think there was a confident Asian community. I think definitely these t shirts came out in the eighties and nineties called pack one. And it was kind of owning the P word. We we became quite confident and cocky and saying, okay, you got a problem with this. Actually, I'm gonna own this. This is who I am. And but it was all about race. And I thought we we were heading the right direction. British Asians were making their Mark in music and Baltics and then bang. You know, it all changed and post nine eleven I stopped being rich Asian and our became bridge Muslim, I felt Britain had changed. And and you know, the time I was kind of having a pretty awful situation with my private life as well. And I checked out I left prison in about nine months after September eleven just when I thought we had fought and warden. And started to set off on that path of equality and equal worth equal value. Here we were having to start all over again, improve loyalty improve worth and prove value. And I to in this all over again, I've been here before think I took the easy route out and spent nearly a year away. And then just comebacker fight this one that was not the right decision just to walk away. And it's really interesting because like you say things are getting better than for me as British Hindi the continued to get better. And that wasn't the case for you as a British Muslim, you say that color, and perhaps later on religion politicized you in a way. But what find quite interesting is the way in which politicized you because if you look at voting records for the Tories, you don't do very well with ethnic minorities. Most people who aren't why don't turn to the conservative party. What made you, Tori? I believe in a small stay believe in low texicana me, I believe in you know, the state getting out of the way and let you get on with business. You know, as an entrepreneur, I was conservative in my values all of those things chimed with the centre-right space, irrespective of what the British Conservative Party had done or were doing, and then I became involved with the local party and the local party had some great people in and it was very inclusive and it felt like an exciting space to be. Whereas certainly at that time for me, the labor party just felt like it was it was dated. And you know, it wasn't in touch and in tune with what young British Asians wanted. And you know, the migrant experience of coming here working hard, not relying upon the state, you know, wanting to improve yourself, and, you know, keeping your head down staying within the law all of those things that our parents and grandparents did actually very much chimed with what you know. Good old-fashioned conservatives would consider to be responsible sit. Seasons. See tried to become the MP for Jews break into thousand and five and lost three years after that day. Become appointed you to the house of lords. And then a couple of years later, you chair of the party. It was a really quick rise. Did people resent it some people be resentful of any job that I've ever go in any aspect of my life. But hey, that's. You know, what men feeling threatened the icon compensate them for their insecurities? Do you think you've got permission? 'cause you're an Asian woman. I'm ups Lutely clear, you know, having worked with a whole bunch of mediocre white men that actually you know, that is that is it's easier to be a mediocre Whiteman than it is to be a mediocre Brown woman. Most jobs that I've had to go out to be four times as good to get off as much acknowledgment. But hey, you know, if that's what makes people feel better if they believe that the one Asian woman or woman breaks through and she just saw on on positive action. Not because the fact that actually there may be some talent amongst women or women of color, then that says a lot about them, really. And I often hear well, it's all political, correct? Impulsive action. And I'm like really you're moaning about being. Honestly, if that was the biggest worry, I had you know, I will problems guys get over it. Do you? Remember the first moment you saw Slama phobia in the conservative party. I don't think there's a single moment. You know, it's 'cause I don't know about you, occasionally, you kind of here's something or just hand that did they really say that did they mean it in that way. Because initially my instinct always is when I hear anything racist Slama phobic because to become a little bit of Barras to kind of almost pretend you had the haven't happened or not believe that it happened. I think it it takes a wild start to see the pattern and then say, wow, this is really really something deeply troubling. So let's have a look at the things that happened in the party that might have concerns. You. What I'm about to say is drawn from the British experience. But I believe there are general lessons for us. All I want to start Cameron because you were quite close to him. He quite divisive speech in two thousand and eleven in Munich, arguing that state multiculturalism it failed under the doctrine of state multiculturalism. We've encouraged different cultures to live separate lives apart from each other and apart from the mainstream we failed to provide a vision of society to which they feel they want to belong. Did you think that was a mistake did and you'll recall that just weeks before his Munich speech? I did my speech in LeicesteR where I said Islam phobia had passed the dinner table test. And I felt that I needed to do this speech pre Munich to set the tone. I mean, sometimes when you feel that losing the journal battle about trying to reason with somebody you just have to go public with it to seep into all societies away. What it is acceptable? Dinner. What is the dinner party test for me? It's the fact that it's found in the most respectable of settings, you know, people's middle class didn't tables where people will say things like, oh, we've had a Muslim family moving next. But you know, they're all right anything that is. You can't you know, what position do you stop from where you even start to pick? And and I think for me over stuff that we talked about earlier in terms of being called pack and chase down the street is actually easier to comprehend it's when you find that what I call respectable racism found in aditorial rooms in newspapers, and in think tanks, and in political policy spaces, and you know, an it's done by very well heeled successful people in very respectable surroundings. That stuff is punishes because it green lights the crazies on the streets. Like, we saw Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson is refusing to back down from controversial comments that have offended many Muslims in an article for the Daily Telegraph. He says the wearing of berkers is oppressive weird and bullying, adding it is absolutely ridiculous. That people should. Choose to go around looking like letterboxes and makes peaceful. He was making a har- column. Writing about letterboxes and Bank robbers is women who wear the burqa, but that led to real attacks on Australia. And there was evidence to show that women had had those comments shouted at them after that to Boras. Yeah. And and that's why I felt that he needed to the the party needed to reprimand him. And I'm really disappointed that, you know, there was a a apparently process. I'm not sure what that process is. I'm not sure who sound up process, and he was deemed not to be Slama phobic. And the question that has my party was that's fine. But what was the definition you used his Lama phobia to deem that he wasn't? There's no answer to that. There are many many examples of study con having shed platforms with having given surgeon to having made up. Jeez. For people who have extreme views and then for that person to try and close down questions by being casual with the use of words. Does sitcom mclondon less safe? Yes, or no. I think he's going to pulling judgment. Does. He is that Goldsmith Merrill campaign. What about set goals, miss Merrill, campaign? You know, real low moment for rose a cold out at the time. There were lots of things we could have said about Sidiq and lots of things that we could still say about Sunday Kabbah policy positions on a variety of things. But the one thing you can't say about Saudi is that he's a problematic Muslim inverted commas, you know, because if Saddik is problematic Muslim, I don't think that are any solutions if somebody like came who is inclusive and liberal and pro LGBT and feminist and absolutely an integrated part of British society, if he is still seen as a inverted commerce security risk problematic Muslim can't be trusted node, no doing wing campaign of, you know, slightly dodgy Muslim, the what is left after that. Then who else is actually acceptable? And it's not just a few high profile incidents. We now have dozens of. Claims about Islam phobia all levels, including people being back in after making some really quite -fensive remarks on social media. Is the conservative party institutionally, islamophobic. This been institutional failure in the way in which the party has dealt with Islamaphobia. And I've given the party examples of that. So. Cases, which the party fails to respond to cases, which the party. I knowledge cases, which the party says the didn't deal with because they want submitted in the right format and tragically the only time that the matters have been dealt with his when the Preska involved, and we have a big trial by Twitter. And then eventually something is done and that to me shows institutional failure, there's a reluctance lack of either political Wheelock capacity to deal with this issue. So how many cases are we talking about that is this lack of transparency about who what these numbers are? So we had I think we had a bunch of twenty five and then a bunch of fifteen and under the five, and then you know, it's kind of it. It's been it's been increasing. But that is no clarity and homely numbers. People have been expelled Omni have been suspended. How many of being letting how long they were suspended for an all of this opaqueness lead, you know, is clear institutional failure. And you know, this this survey from hope not. Hey, forty-nine percent of Tory voters think Islam is the threat to the British way of life. Forty seven percent believe there are sharia no go areas that non Muslims can enter recently. There's been this controversy that we've been reporting on in the guardian. More than a dozen conservative councillors have been suspended for Islam phobic racist content being quietly, let back into the party. I mean, are you talking to Brandon Lewis, and what's he doing? And what about Theresa May? Well to reason I wrote to nearly two years ago now and got very little joy with kind of gave up and then Brandon. Yeah. Of course, he's aware of this and these have been bought his attention. And and I think what I do give credit to the guardian is that you have been fighting and raising these issues on the basis of evidence. And now it's for the polity to either continue to deny it or face up to what is now overwhelming evidence. Why isn't the party accepting this same definition of Slama Fabu that labor in the Liptons of accepted? So these are the conversations that I've been having with the party. I think the two points of concern that were raised a word that they didn't want to adopt the definition as it stands that. They may want to make changes to it. And I literally had face. Face face palm emoji that you have where you had your face bar moment. If we don't let anything from the last two years where British Jewish communities along with lots of academics. And experts came to the labor party and said, this is our definition we'd like you to use it. And then somebody said, oh, no, thank you for that. But we'll give you our version of it. And then we quite rightly took them to task because I have two quite rightly took them to task for that. And I'm saying just about to do exactly the same. You're going to take a definition which has taken a year to put together has the support of eighty over eighty academe IX who are experts in this area has the support of over eight hundred institutions and organizations has has been signed by almost every Muslim parliamentarian has been adopted by the Liberal Democrats, the labor party plied, the mayor of London. The mayor of Manchester has the support of large sections of mainstream British Muslim communities, and you're just going to say, thanks for all of that guys. But I think we know better is the problem with a definition. I have no idea. So the detail of it hasn't been explained to me other than the fact that. They're not sure whether they're going to adopt all of the have been referred to some voices fringe voices within British Muslim communities. So what this is. Well, not all Muslims agree with this definition, albridge Jews agreed with HR a definition. But what you can't take is fringe voices within a community and superimpose them on the majority middle because that's exactly what labor defense was in relation to HR. As almost as if the last two years have taught us absolutely nothing about how we handle these issues. What was it like to speak out about Islam? Phobia. Have you faced about clash? More than the backlash. You get all the abuse that you get on social networks, but I think worse than the backlash has been the. The denial. You know, the wall of silence and say, yeah, this just doesn't exist. So it's been let one there's been no reaction. And then when the reaction has come it's been, oh, no. We don't have a problem. And then the third argument is being well, we do have a problem where daily with it. And you know, history has taught me that this is not the way you deal with things denial and silence in the end always leads to a full inquiry and acceptance of the challenge, and then the longer you've left it the worst becomes. Kinda just quickly ask you about leadership. We may well have a leadership contest saying you tweeted, something a long time. I mean, you you you tweeted about Michael job in the of Christ Church and attacks on Muslims. We need a leader who will ease not feed the beast of Islam phobia. I have in too many deeply troubling meetings. With Michael go to know that he is not the answer to a party knee-deep and allegations of racism, what did you mean by that? I'm not going to put on record cabinet meetings and cabinet committee meetings and national Security Council meetings. I think as a privy counsellor on no my responsibility in relation to those. But what I did do as during my time in government. In fact, was pulled up by number ten four it was very detailed notes of meetings because there were conversations that were happening that would deeply troubling. And and I make my judgments based upon those conversations that I heard, and you know, I'm not the only one can, you know, even David Cameron himself was raised concerns about the views that Michael has about communities, especially British Muslim communities. And I think it would be a deeply troubling time for our party if that was to happen, especially when we are so out of depth in challenging issue, racism, and Islamophobia and has such of it disappointed. You I mean, he took that extraordinarily strong line on shimmy Begum he tries to make very clear, but he's not practicing Muslim. Do you think he feels he needs to kind of wipe that clear in order to be a contender? I think if such it wants to be leader of the conservative party than the real sausage avid needs to step forward. And I think the worry for me is not what side believes or doesn't believe whether he's a Muslim or isn't a Muslim whether he defines himself as a Muslim or not whether is I just I just want him to work out who he is at the moment. This so much flip-flopping going on about it's almost if Saad works out who he wants to be at any one time, that's politically expedient and that goes with that. And I would love to see a, you know, an ethnic minority prime minister, I would love to see somebody called Sanjay Javid, become prime minister Britain. I mean that would be such a phenomenal moment for Britain. But the person who becomes that prime minister also needs to be sure and confident of who they are. And if he's still on some sort of journey working out who he is. I'm not sure that the prime ministerial office is a right place for him to be having that journey. Why are you still Tori because I'm a center at politician where else would center politician these days? Yes. My party's gonna little wonder off to the far right at the moment. But actually, the lib parties having wonder off to the far left, and I just don't know where else as a politician. You would say so. Yeah, look, you know, that a pulse of my party that frustrate me and the direction of travel for straights me concerns me. But there are some amazing colleagues, and we can't just give on the party. You know, however, hard isn't however is and however it would be just to check out of this disastrous kind of space that would him with politics at the moment of to stay in fine because you know. This is kind of two thousand three moment again for me when I left Britain, I left, but I I realized that that was a wrong thing to do you have to come back and fight this out. And and that's why I'm not prepared to leave. And I will continue to fi however hard is because we owe it to the TWA kids into their kids into the next generation of you know, ethnic minority kids who are growing up to say you can be yourself. You come be authentically yourself. You can truly be rooted in in in in who you are in the communities that you connected to and you can be confidently Muslim, and you can be proudly British, and I have to send that message out and to do that you have to stay rather than saying no space for people like me or British Muslims in the conservative party so universally. Thank you very much. Thank you. That was a conservative Pesci Diversey. She's often been a lone voice in speaking out about Islamophobia in conservative ranks since carrying out the interview, she's met with senior figures in the party and given them until the twenty third of April to come up with a plan. She went becoming publicly on individual cases until then. We put the allegations in this interview to the conservative party and a spokesperson came out with this statement, they said, quote, discrimination or abuse of any kind is wrong. When HQ that's conservative campaign headquarters has been made aware of the small number of such cases, we have acted swiftly suspending members launching immediate investigations in sharp contrast to other parties. Coming up. Have you spotted any of the online Facebook ads for a note deal? Brexit think they come from separate grassroots movements. Thank you. Learn the business principles that have made Disney a global leader in customer experience for over thirty years. Disney institute has helped business organizations. Learn the Disney approach they don't just tell you what works for them. They introduce you to another mode of thinking. Learn more at Disney institute dot com. Welcome back. Now. The guardians media editor Jim Waterson on his exclusive story revealing the company behind those mysterious. Brexit ads. Don't delay. Brexit toll Lisa to deliver Brexit, tell quasi a customs union is not a Brexit. Email your MP now. These outfits you might have seen running in Facebook over the last year or so coming from strange slightly mysterious, but largely just skill groups with names like mainstream network or Britain's future. If you see an advert in your feet, urging you to Email, your local MP, and you click that link it'll give you a sort of psalm Email to send to them what we believe is that they were some sort of fake grassroots campaign to give politicians the impression that there was a honest uprising in favor of a no deal. Brexit imagine you're an MP on the morning commute into parliament. And he pick up the phone. You look at your inbox. And this fifty or sixty more people that day urging you tobacco no deal, and they say their constituent that's got to start making you think or at least seeds out about the other options and make you think that at least a significant minority of people in your constituency. Do you want to know deal Brexit? These groups have been very much in the headlines recently, they've spent an extraordinary sum of money separately. But what people didn't realize until very recently is that those connections between all of them. So for instance, Britain's future is fronted by a thirty year old former two pints of lager and a packet of crisps script writer who lives in Manchester called Tim Dawson. And he was the man you just say I've raised some money. I'm booking some ads. You know, there's there's nothing else to it. It seems strange that he had four hundred thousand pounds to spend on Facebook cats what I've found out is that certainly in the background. These pages are being overseen by a small group of individuals who aren't the front people some of them who seem to work for the Solent. Crosby is a long-standing pro Brexit, conservative, strategists and Boris Johnson's former political adviser. There's no pinch of illegality about this outside election, period. There's very few restrictions on what people can do in terms of political campaigning. So really, this is just a question of whether we want people to be able to run these mass under the radar online, plus clarifies in campaigns, and how we feel about that society. And it also plays into white questions about why this is going on and one really big question of who is paying for. We just don't know who is ultimately picking up the tab. But this is a very very expensive campaign. Someone is spent at least a million may be substantially more in an attempt to undermine Theresa May over more than a year using targeted Facebook adverts. To the best knowledge. The remain campaign on doing anything similar what they are doing is urging people with sort of quite vague messages to sort of, you know, come out on the March come out and sign a petition and the question if you're a remain supporter listening to this is how would you feel if there was a second referendum of whether remains should also played thirty. And that's a big question. Do you view this as this is just the way that things are now this is how political campaigns of fourteen twenty nineteen or Devi? This is something that neither side should be doing. And the everyone should be banned from doing. That's all for today. My thanks Diversey and Jim Watterson. Today's episode was produced by Josh Kelly and Walker sound design was by axel Kuti. The executive producers are filming not and the coal Jackson have a lovely weekend. We'll see you on Monday.

British Conservative Party Britain Facebook Theresa May Brandon Lewis Boris Johnson Munich Jim Watterson David Cameron Manchester Michael Tori Pesci Diversey Astana ADA Packie Disney prime minister letterboxes Baltics
Has Jeremy Hunt angered the DUP?

Coffee House Shots

11:06 min | 1 year ago

Has Jeremy Hunt angered the DUP?

"And welcome to coffee has shown spectators, daily politics podcast. I'm joined by Isabel Hartman and James Recife. So another day of this leadership contest, and with another date comes at gaffe or two, now is about Jeremy hunt is himself in the firing lines day for comments, he has made on veterans what's going on. It's very strange. She's money to suggest a sort of equivalent between partitioned forces veterans, and I are a terrorists and is a gaffe on its own, but it's also a particularly bad gaffe, given the mood in the conservative party about the prosecution of veterans from troubles era potential fences. Because if you to the PM cues running up to men ounces, she was going, there were so many, angry emotional questions from conservative MP's about this, and something that the grass roots feel very strongly about as well. So for hunting ought to take care over that particular issues is particularly strange. I think and it's Kuester disagreement between driving hunt and the DP clearly the if Jeremy hunt defies all it mccombs prime minister, he is going to have to work closely with the DV. He needs support James bushings going on. Here are in there is there's a problem here, which is when part of being in government for certain amount of time, people begin to think, like officialdom on the issue for fishing him, is any provision that you extend the military you couldn't you'd have to extend to everyone to all sides in this conflict, personally, I think we should be unashamedly holding bushy soldiers to a higher standard than we hold terrace to we. They were holding the rule of law. And I think diverse people you think there should be no prosecutions. I really would recommend reading Doug as Murray's piece on, on Bloody Sunday and spectator from a few months ago. I mean that makes a very compelling case for why that should be. Kitchens in some circumstances. I think in a way that perhaps more damaging to hunt campaign was he got his words wrong about this Tober thirty first issue, he meant to accuse we Don from St. the Nava times he meant to accuse Boris Johnson, making false promise, and he get the UK out on the thirty first with a deal and instead he toward equal to the thirty first of fake deadline and that has the Johnson campaign to keep going with this dividing line of as hammering hunting, what will bought is your deadline. When when are we going to leave the EU, if your chart and that is the great concern of Tory members? So we now weakened distorted contests in the membership around the week started with Boris Johnson having quite spectacular front page wobble we he now seems to ROY -ted his ship, and it's now Jeremy hunt's tante to, to be a bit on certain. I think it allows the voice Johnson campaign to arkie. Jeremy hunt would be a continuation of Theresa May not. Just on Brexit. But on the treatment of veterans and other issues that conserved fem piece get particular agitated about, and as James said Boris Johnson might have started the week with a slew of negative headlines. He's managed to get things back together. Again, he's become a bit more Boris that clip of him talking bizarrely about his boss painting, Hoppy took us back to why people find him so compelling because he is a bit weird, but in quite a funny way, and this is different to the sort of the boys that I've been talking about from the past couple of years, where his comments in newspaper columns, for instance, about berkers have really angered people. I think that's been a more affectionate reaction to that to that bus revelation, which is probably reminded the party of, of what his appeal is. And on that bus revelation the serious part podcast, there's will say speculation that the Bush campaign that she just be shit. Genius, 'cause there's conspiracy theories guy rant that by to hang about buses in the way he did and painting buses from wine. Crates, if you Google Boris Johnson buses actually was buried on the system is, is the NHS very leave promise about buses. And what comes up is Boris Johnson talking about how much does painting them happy people on it. Jim, she thank him. This is just a streak of genius, which is in the conspiracy, theorists need to chill out doing that was the logic behind wars, a political point to what he said, which is I think he was trying to say that, that would get people talking kind of water cooler moment. But I don't think this was all about suppressing. The victim impact on the bus, and also to shamelessly steal the point of the various people made most of the people voting in this leadership election view, the free hundred million bus with affection. So is interested push that down the SEO rankings? I, sometimes think that. Cosby has an effect on some people on the life that they think that everything I mean, literally, a book Boris ca trip over his shoelaces, or whatever embarrassing instant. And there are some people on the left, you would think that lindzen cross Bhave cynical campaign based on understand deep on the study of human psychology obtained. This is on his mind manipulation. I mean, this is a this is not what it was always kind of always PCA levels of obsessions with dead cats from the left when it comes to Boris Johnson Lynton Crosby thing and James is quickly to give us an update on Boris Johnson's Brexit position he has given an inch to con- home today. What is the latest because he was asked if he would ignore parliament effectively on, if they tried to rule out no deal. So what do you currently see his evolving Brexit position as chief, but Bush is very keen. He hasn't ruled it out. But he's very keen say this perogie palm, I did doesn't appeal to him. But I think it's also fair to say the deal take a much more robust parliament to resume did when parliament trying to an extension, but in the real reveal embarrassments mindset was when he said yesterday, but no deal was going to million to one chance, which most people look at his restaurants that call me right? Because the saying. They won't reopen the withdrawal agreement and you'll sign unless they reopened the withdrawal agreement. The UK will leave the deal have a funny I but I think what it reveals is that Bush is genuinely completely convinced that when you put no deal on the table as an option and show, that you can that you'll prepared to face down palman, and deliver it the EU will, then rob a concession. So I mean this remains the, the essential trees amaze breakfast, rashy could be essentially summarizes playing Chiquita parliament Boris Johnson's is playing him the EU now meeting to labor. We have the new that Chris Williamson has had his suspension lifted is about, as some speculation again is could be various theories that given that labor MP's have all say sweeping asked, if they want to stand in the next election unto that the party nerve in two weeks that we could feed to see the start of diesel actions. So what do you think we should take from Labor's decision to readmit, Chris Williamson? Well, it certainly way of. Provoking, reopening, the massive rile, that's going on in the party over its handling of antisemitism. Chris Williamson was suspended because he said that his party had been too apologetic over its handling of antisemitism allegations, and it's, it's caused a massive upset amongst MP's who desperately trying to explain why they're staying in the labour party. When it does things like this, when it readmits people who behave like this is been really interesting watching the reaction of those MP's who part of the, the stay in fight movement. Which is really sort of gained a lot of ground over the past few months, not least, because of the collapse of change UK. They've been saying this shouldn't have just stayed with a three person panel of the national executive committee. It should've been referred to national constitutional committee, which takes more serious decisions on really serious, disciplinary matters. Suggesting the party hasn't taken it seriously enough, but it's very easy for the critics to say, we'll NEC NCC whatever the point is the leadership looks after its friends and uses the disciplinary process to damage its enemies, and it'll be a magic another occasion on which Tom Watson, and those around him seek to differentiate themselves from the leadership but innocence is very difficult to see how things again to change. Even if Jeremy Corbyn isn't leader, the next general election, if some one of his if someone else takes over is most likely be one of his allies, perhaps, oh, be able to articulate themselves slightly better than Jeremy Corbyn on certain things, perhaps, they may be able to claim that dealing with anti semitism. But, but if the party structurally continues to do this sort of thing, then it's going to be very difficult from peace who who want to fight antisemitism to explain why they're staying in the party. Now, one theory, ignorance, James on Chris rooms, and is he could actually be de-selected seen enough by his polity knows that present Hugh need to vote. If you have a trigger about it, do you think there's a chance of that, would you think people just trying to find a way to justify the actions of the labor party by readmitting him, awful people? When I was listening to all the national constitutional commission was over those people don't want to confront the reality of a labor party. They are now in they want to pretend that somehow this is always been the view, but labor. Right. But to every problem, there is a process organizational solution in this case, there is, but I also being the one of the interesting things is the labor. I mean, we spend a lot of time obviously to immense. Picker was always labor. Arnaud really bad state. There's a there's a poll out today. It's just one poll is very instructive about what the public thinks Jeremy Corbyn potty, eighty five percent of voters in that survey or dissatisfied with how the government is doing. Only eight percent asteroid is getting pretty much down to blood relations of Theresa May's downing street's dolph yet, despite that eighty five percent. Disasters action regiment. The governing party is leading in this poll. And if this doesn't tell you, but the public, grave understandable, reasons reservations about Jeremy Corbyn, Xavier potty, nothing. Well, thank you. James. Thank you is about, while your hair. Why not try another focused, a weekly spectator podcast this week is ver-? Hartman talks Jane's for Saif and committed. Tommy about Boris Johnson's plan for government.

Boris Johnson James Recife Jeremy Corbyn Jeremy hunt UK government EU Isabel Hartman Bush Theresa May Chris Williamson labour party prime minister Brexit Google MP NHS Cosby Jim
Does Hunt stand a chance in Tory hustings?

Coffee House Shots

16:28 min | 1 year ago

Does Hunt stand a chance in Tory hustings?

"Welcome to govern house shorts spectators, daily politics podcast between the ship is now in its final furlong with Boorda's Johnson and Jeremy hunt meeting in Birmingham tomorrow. And what could be the first of eighteen separates hustings. So what can we expect? I'm frizz Fresno, joined by James Cy, then Katie balls, James. Why are we bothering with this five weeks of what we knew is going to be Walker for Boris? I mean, the unexpected does happen in politics, Katie rose ner spectacle than recently, but surely no expecting Jeremy hunter witness from the very beginning of this process. Jeremy hunt was the opponent. But the Boris Johnson campaign wanted they fought he had three weaknesses that played Boris his hands. The first is that he voted a most important is the voices remain in twenty sixteen. The second is that he is being Theresa May's cabinet. Throughout the entire Brexit process on the furred is, the hunt is instinctively, mal mannered politician, he's not one who tended to impose himself on a debate. And so, I think what we will see at these hustings. The campaign, intense drawn turn these things into is to something more akin to political rallies and feeding is made him. Feel good occasions, you all on his own conserved, his wonderful, and that basic will make it very difficult to Jeremy hunt to land any place. Now, you, you said you describe this as a five price. It's not really because the postal votes will go out sometime around July six and all the Akron results addressed the both bulk those will return returned relatively quickly, so almost whatever happens Leith role in the process doesn't massive out much because I suspect that the vast majority of people voted long before MRs over so Casey house. Michael Goov going to be feeling this morning because he lost out by just two votes. James explains. Why Jeremy hunt Boras favourite candidate? We all know why he wouldn't when my congressional because my Hoover's fight Michael win. So do you think he's feeling injured on redressed unpaid this morning? I think my Gobi feeling very frustrated. And I also think just looking at the today's papers might be when those days when you keep the papers away from your boss, because his multiple papers saying, Boris Johnson takes revenge Michael gov. And the idea here is that tactical voting was at play. And I think there's any question that there was had to converting if you just look, for example, yesterday at the number of savage, avid, supporters after he was knocked out of the morning vote, thirty three of them yet, but he, he publicly declared to say they're going to back Boris Johnson. So a least full Mobley said they were going to vote to produce Johnson yet. Bruce Johnson's overall anyone by free votes in between the fasten. The second clearly that means that there is. And that's just once we know about that means people were not doing exactly as they said. And I think the only question is does that mean that it was Boris Johnson campaigns water tactics were Cup? Couple of Boris Johnson, supporting MP's freelancing and doing things the Rona quarter, no instruction Gavin Williamson, the former chief whip sush Machiavellian type character he has been in charge of the parliamentary stage. So that's how you get the data tricks outta Gatien's, which we're hearing from quite a few MP's, the sense that there was an effort to make it so Jeremy hunt the line not Michael grove. And if you dictate suggested supporters seemed like a lot of those have gone grove, that didn't go Boris, so it doesn't quite add up. I think there's some people who feel like they're scheming, but there was. Sasha. John invis-, our is wrecking the fifteen visible orders when to Boris there for that would suggest that team is lent between ten fifteen votes to Jeremy hunt that didn't need to steal it fair and square. But ultimately, what's happened seems that's been some political plotting shark in Westminster. The volt shock that the haves. I mean, they say was evidence prove it now it's a secret fantasy awesome here. You say guess does campaign does seem as low at the upper hand of the other campaigns. But then, again, this is Westminster politics. And there's always been a little bit of, you know, Hugh Hugh can get ahead by any means possible slight things. And I think there are some in the Boris Johnson camp and not official perhaps, he d think that this was a very mechanical process, the parliamentary stages of this contest and not so that of a campaign Scott brought down or consumed, or thinking about the media doing pitches and social media, actually, it was just about gay enough MP's free. Whether that is free telling the bad things that would happen, if they didn't back their candidate offering a carrot. I mean, government sin has always said that he prefers a shop carrots, which is suggestions that you combine a stick with a carrot short Kerr James, the stories, I've heard. Govern Williamson over the last few days, really being quite striking the former chief whip seems to be doing Francis Irqah tribute act here. I mean it's kind of stems silent threats some MP's. In other words, I've heard one MP say that he was told by volumes teams that basically unless you sign up to team Boras. You not going to work in parliament and this government again and I'm going to personally see to it. Now, you knew MP's tend to exaggerate these things, but there's been a highly effective whipping operation, but I'm wondering, are you sensing some worry in parliament that Boorda's because he's had pretty much a walkover at this stage he'll have a walkover in the candidate stage. There are lots of unanswered questions about him, not whether he's a big, but basically whether he is, so relaxed his leadership style, create a vacuum into which some party Hardiman might. Step in and the Boras regime might be lot less often cuddly than it seems from his juvenile exterior, I wanna miss telling things is that, that can abortion satellites then aren't really bothering to deny that was voting taking place. What I do say that certain senior people in that campaign might have been involved. They, they're trying to say is the forest in the candidate himself didn't know anything about it. And I mean that is the frankly the review. I also think, as you say that, that one of the things is playing into is very big questions within the as I is the magazines with Burr, they're gonna three different power orbits around bursts yet. Very old London marrow crew. There are his palment relaunches the people who have been with him through the ups and downs. You have at twenty sixty in the time in the wilderness. And then they're all the people who've come on board, like, Gavin Williamson and have helped deliver this victory for, and presumably, they expect. Power non-return. Yes. And the first two groups are worried about the Lhasa group. And so, I think one of the things we are going to see is a kind of an all too. What about Boris Johnson? But his natural style is not restrict himself to one source of vice to. He will quite like the fact that they're all of these people jostling for the king's there, but I think he has to make some choices because from the moment he is likely to enter Downing Street to October thirty. First, this pivotal Davis ship is only ninety nine days and that means he cannot afford to waste an hour of that time. And so he's going to have to have a very clear structure when he enters dining Serie, and a very clear knowledge of what he is going to do. Do you think he needs to be clear structure, now because today's the day with a civil service will start talks with booth, the Kansas. Jeremy hunting Boris Johnson this happens before elections civil service will talk to the opposition, just in case you win. What would you like us to do? So this is starting now. But from what I gather Boorda's has new running the transition team in team Boorda's itself. Nobody is in charge arrest the. Boris who tends not to be around. So euro really getting sort of creative chaos now vis creative, chaos is imported into number ten wouldn't this be exactly what Michael warned us about that Boris for all of his cheering MRs ability to rally the troops as intensity, he doesn't have the decisiveness and the presence of minds to making the several difficult decisions day that prime minister needs to do, and I'm wondering to what extent, we will see not when he gets into office? But right now in his transition team whether he's able to have a hierarchy to have somebody who's in charge. In other words together grip of all these tribes who've gathered around him as James says, I think he will stop to fake us on that. And I think part of the reason that Boris Johnson allies, very happy, Jeremy hunt than the final eight is because they fear that they can actually spit that time fairly evenly between pairing for hustings against some. That everything is the greatest rat. And trying to have government will say, he he was going to be doing what I understand that Lynton Crosby team. And now coming in to help at the hustings campaigns hosting that they are going to be helping with, and that means that he, he's about extra there that will give others. You've been doing the parliamentary stages time to stop focusing on the on the transition on how what you do. Exactly when you take government because as James says, in his cover piece, this is going to be the most important ninety nine days of any prime minister given that there is a hard deadline, which may be trying to avoid, but there is a hard Brexit dead. Let an end of October which could mean that you having to potentially face a general election. You've got to say what you've done James as a tour gathering for the hustings. They will also be fighting a violation, which we hear has been cold this morning. So breckon run the show. See held by the Dem's into relatively recently. They held the seat in the washing seventy Batori impede. Chris Davis was done for fiddling his expenses. He has now been recalled versus the seconds accessible Rico following the pizza by Rico works, a new tool in the political when days if a certain I should've up for I came on. But if a certain percentage of electric in a seat, sign a petition demanding the recall of in Bonn action, baguette one, this is the second time it's happened the first being Peterborough whose MP was caught Zambia for speeding offenses. Yeah. And so I think we wait to see what happens here. I think the suspect the to Ripon he manages will be desperate to get his bond action in before Boris Johnson, all whoever becomes prime minister. Earn it actual test. I think one say show is one of the difficulties of politics right now for the Tories, which is busy did Morgan 'evote to leave. But the warriors of the Tories is that you'll find the lib Dem's could've leader could've remain alliance in this election, while the Tories in the Brexit party split the Brexit vote. No, Katie lib Dem's have been having miraculously resurrection recently, I mentioned, they will have -solutely want to win this, especially if they'd be replacing Toury, who was found to have been on the hey Dolittle, yes, and is lipped helix. Recall, petition some thought that I think feel on a Sonya. It was much more high profile case in terms of the MB had done this, cool case, she is in, I think, is conservative MP's and neighboring seas to this Hugh was skeptical that you would reach the fresh hold for full Rico, but the lip dams are. Adamant and very keen to get the seat bag and said they've run a very active campaign to get they needed about five thousand people to sign it. They got over ten thousand so they have very high hopes, and I think you'll see from the action, this is the kind of thing the lib Dem's obscene to share the keep building momentum. Now. It'll be interesting because the Brexit party light lip dams very well in the EU and actions and then had a by-election they thought they could use to show that they were an unstoppable force that can take on the tea party system in the end, they missed it slightly and elated very well, given the time it did me in that the Brexit party, I think, has reduced a little bit of the mystique, who perhaps a sense that it would necessarily take on both Tories and labour, obviously has a big affect it can have on the Tory vote. But the sense that they were gonna get lost seats in general election, I think, is in a bit more doubt. Now, the lib Dem's I think it could work in the way here, if they could win the see I think will really build into his idea that they had the pro remain Pasi. They are the ones who flocked tape, but if they don't get it, then I think you'll see again, the sense of all EU elections, Representative of what happens in first-past-the-post. The big difference is the Lib Dems in this half. The data for the Brexit party didn't have impeachable. The Dem's pointing Bod actions ver- as long as communist pop is being going, and they know what to do to win these kind of sees. And of course, it remains to be seen if Kylie will outlast lib Dem's, Katie less nights. We saw a rather disturbing video emerge climate change. Protesters has managed to get through to the Mansion House speech where they're protesting against the content of fem Philip how awful speech or something like that. But we also saw Mark Fields manhandle the protesters outside holding her by the neck and captured a very clearly on camera. I was Newsnight last night, and the image came through quite quickly. And nobody believes there is what kind of 'em reactions there. Yes, this is the climate change. Protesters' and one woman he was part of the protest was storming towards that. The top table and mock as filmed leaving his seat push. Shing her to the to the wall. And then grabbing her neck, a much Herat and it clearly on the video very heavy handed. You had Greenpeace healing to the protests suggest that he should be done for assault. I think in immediate Tom's, what means is the government have suspended him as a foreign office minister, so pending an investigation. Mark field has himself put him said he wanted to be put forward for an investigation. He has apologized. He said he made a split sex, a split-second decision to, to base the respond thinking that this person could be carrying some kind of web fused excuse I've heard of you. And so she media saying, as you could be nor seem to stretch. Yeah, he's, he's made the point that he made a split-second decision on. I think the suggestion that he accepts that was the wrong decision. What would be interesting? I mean just watching how this plays I you've seen some Tory MP's come to defense today, publicly and say that they actually think that he did, and particularly wrong because. And are in so much danger these days and times the various attacks in France, they actually do you take a chance and presume this person isn't freshening? Do you just presume the west but Theresa May have been a number? Ten spokesman suggested being very disturbed by the footage. But that's wait-and-see with the two leaves ship candidacy hip, because Jeremy hunt is a good friend of mine fields Marshfield as minister in the foreign office. He wasn't as suspension today. So I think this is the test in terms of Halley handle. We might see Jeremy hunt standing of religion minister Boris Johnson spine over Shunichi to say you shouldn't release that way, tensely gives you and James. Thanks very much indeed. You can subscribe to this podcast, coffeehouse shorts, and we only chain store or to the magazine from just one pound a week spectator does could UK for slash. Subscribe, you can read James's cover story on what we should expect from the Boris Johnson premiership. Thanks for listening. Thanks to see. Thank Raja Hooper just the podcast.

Boris Johnson Jeremy hunt Kerr James MP Gavin Williamson Theresa May Boorda Jeremy hunter prime minister Hugh Hugh Bruce Johnson Chris Davis Katie rose Michael Katie Lib Dems Fresno Michael Goov James Cy Walker
Saturday 12 October

Monocle 24: Midori House

29:21 min | 10 months ago

Saturday 12 October

"It's today the you're listening to monaco's house view first broadcast on the twelfth of october two thousand nineteen on monocle twenty four so they seem to have come to a possible arrangement and what we can discern from the prime minister yesterday refusing twice to say that northern ireland would be leaving the EU customs response to the turkish military offensive in northeastern syria we'll ask if the block has become the world's policeman after trump's america can no longer be relied upon oh that's in the a different place what they would do is stay in the EU customs union but also simultaneously stay in the new UK customs union therefore mind recapping it's very difficult to get it's very easy to get left behind in this thing in terms of explanation vincent would you mind take the floor and explain i mean is that they have gone back to plan which boris johnson eighteen months ago absolutely dismissed which jacob small cooled crassness which the as long with two hundred crossings more than the eastern flank of the whole of the EU there are roads which wind between there are waterways there was never any way to create irish t. shock when leo radcow is photograph strolling along tree lined path smiling alongside britain's prime minister boris johnson the world wondered if geology which is the group that's kind of now backing they've taken bar cinema ten are kind of reversed ferreting on and that would basically be that northern ireland despite the managing expectations very heavily is one of the only mint prime ministerial meetings i've ever seen where the media was not told the location and no one was invited there was no poor camera or anything aboard that would work and also even if you could it would be the center of new violence there was no way of getting around that so there's a border being the hour see the the the key right who's going to explain what the problem is briefly as they can you have to do this quite a lot don't need so if finally a breakthrough over arguably the toughest part of brexit had been found what to do about the border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland is not only a trade issue a UP's adamant saying that has to have the exact same relationship as the rest of the u. k. even though it has the moment abortion is legal there and same sex marriage is legal there already in the coming weeks could islands t. shock unlock brexit will discuss the trials and potential triumphs lovely over radka also ahead what can the e you do in you k will take if the tariff is different on a product from the new UK customs union to the new e u customs union the UK will is a problem that could mean the difference between peace and a return to the bloody violence of the troubles and mischief radka the man charged with standing up for the republic has a pit didn't want there to be an agreement that's interests of ireland in the united kingdom and the european union as a whole and i do see a pathway towards collect the tariff on behalf of the EU and pay it back i mean it is going to be that is the simplest version i can explain of it like newspapers to molecules has few starts now joining me in the studio federal speed what the problem is the first thing to say is that we don't actually know what this current proposal is that they have come to that meeting in merseyside with a hong kong one-country-two-systems as we as you said we we are trying to explain this to the extent word and explain to me one hundred times and then i understand that i don't so this is why arguably all these it suddenly becomes all about personality politics visit because the tech nicole part of it is is is incredibly difficult to fathom which is why i wonder everbody has just looked at layover radka and said well you know you might even his london bureau chief for from press and vincent mckinney UK correspondent for year in us welcome back to the studio good morning right let's begin with the so this out yeah i mean this is a bit new because until this recent meeting between johnson and variet- everybody was thinking okay negoti i'm very well suddenly there is a glimmer of hope so the ID's are they ready to compromise and to to to give somebody with this discussion lina option for him so i i guess yeah there is maybe a glimmer of hope because of this because they have to find something as complicated as easy to after three years asking oh by the way what's the backstop about so i must confess i do occasionally thing i don't know what the backstop is an and it's that whole thing that i've had boarder would be in the irish sea not on land between northern republic which we every time we've talked about this issue is that you there is no technological solution for this that borders three hundred and so also the program for the override curry's if there is no deal and he doesn't he doesn't need to be asked the questions then what would happen at the border in the rich brit said we won't have any control any checks control so that means yeah but it's island is the good friday agreement so they are higher goals but then the you said we will set control so actually the except this morning they said they wouldn't support any deal to trump northern ireland and the customs union or single market which is exactly what appears to have been done in this meeting between live radka embarrassed on attended parliament for over two years now in northern ireland you've got the dp who've quite fanatical quite difficult to deal with an also facing veep by doing an absolute u-turn by all of the stuff that he dismissed and the reason he left as the foreign secretary of he suddenly just was lying the whole time and he knows for the most charming of souls i mean this whole boris has a challenge thing he with a certain generation with a certain type of people people that like to hear his on we're going to to to create border is is is the is about game serb so i guess he's in a strange position because no dude is not from now i was actually quite surprised about the outcome of the meeting because boris johnson has the skills when he's in full flow to charm the birds from the trees and last week which would have to borders dp with the ones that went for all of the other political parties didn't and every business organisation in northern ireland was against it this is the problem you've had a just had the kind of more senior older echelons of it that then brought them into line with him so you know his charm and sometimes a little bit overrated with people kind of younger than forty asian will collapse there are two different position the EU on budge UK won't budge and now suddenly without all the details being known as an extra two difficult situation there and it's not clear yet whether the dp will back this we go to walk through the week a little bit and be like well even boris johnson manages to clutch victory from the jaws exit because you cannot move island you can't do anything about it is there how how do you think the rest of the of the leaders are going to be looked at he went back into parliament he had trouble the fellow two thousand fifteen generation and and if you look at who supported to in the election a lot of the newer conservative MP's the twenty autism in northern ireland but they went into that confidence-inspiring with dp because they had to the EPA the only ones going along with the government so the proposals and government shutdown wonder whether boris johnson had done a charm offensive on lear radka what appears to have happened is it almost the opposite has happened even though many people suggested live radka isn't ten twenty two thousand seventeen intake have never warmed to him they do not really like him he's never spent any time trying to build the ranks within the party they pushed the republic of ireland's image way way above its height he is literally at the frontline of the most difficult part of it in speeches yeah he does but for many young people it just seems so it seems weird and stretch he's slightly odd character and he made thirty that it can be but saving face on both sides of the border in the northern irish sea but a bit of border i dunno i mean how they managed is profiting of this occasion and yes i mean this is the who brexit story that put island in this situation you say it becomes such an important country suddenly correct correct thinking he's someone who we need pretension to i think they need to pay attention to ireland i'm not sure it's the question of personality i mean wherever is a in the european union far more it is the most economically deprived four nations in the UK you know there are there's the even if they find a way to have satisfied everybody then we'd be voted by by the parliament and that that's the next step and this is also a crucial one when you think about the fourteen scottish referendum led to a lot of soul searching about unionism this has been another big thing of thinking about it and you know whether they were at one point be a border poll whether it'd be doc in the historical legacies of conflict in whether you're unisom republican you know the british government's weren't meant to be showing any favor under the good friday agreement to specific on so whoever would be i mean veritas own style as who were joking before like it doesn't look like the happy and smiling guy robot he's doing the job i mean it especially in the telegraph is that like do even want to keep northern ireland because it costs more to to maintain northern ireland than it does to st positions have really struggled with its exposed at the highest ranks of our government a lack of understanding of the situation the tensions the people we had northern ireland secretary the nothing themselves to to reach this point so and whatever happens also like on brexit which really i wonder even if they find deal oh whether you know for whatever reason he's doing public is sort of pushing the united kingdom towards the door when you have a character like veronica who arguably who was stupid enough to actually say taking the job i didn't know that republicans voted one way and unionist voted another brexit story i think his remarks say an article came out in the telegraph common piece that many people took issue with but it was that thing of someone finding is really up to the u. they're they are very good for the keys all of this is is northern itself which has a very fractured political scene which is the parties are all their own problems with their own constituents because of there's there's been an issue a scheme a government scheme that was mismanaged reports come out on that so it is a credibly oh can of worms and twenty years after good friday agreement things had finally kinda settled a new generation had grown up without those troubles without that kind of conflict and this is taken them so far back but also brexit it's not the you know this is a real soul searching in orland in northern ireland as well they reintegrated the motives behind everyone was ireland being so strong because they thought it was a chance to reunify is incredibly complicated issue that i think british polls ah off the long and complicated history but there are no non didn't vote for brexit because he knew that in the referendum this would open up oraon now seems to have had second thoughts and the EU has reacted with the threat of sanctions so who can now become the world's police man floor it's very important for them like to feel that they can have the security of borders on again also in iraq but especially in syria away you know it's shown a real complacency in british treatment of northern ireland listening to medicals house view joining me today vincent massey the head of ireland has to to go with the EU to to to follow them they need their support allen is is not strong enough like to to to to do it on his own chris story i wrote twenty years ago was turkey threatening syria to bomb syria or if they don't do nothing to rain in the kurdish fighters so this has been a constant this applies to the the border with iraq because from iraq and syria were always group of kurdish fighters that would let's say a yes we have this desperate situation don't whether withdrawal of fifty US soldiers from northeastern syria led to absolute k. turkey which has been a nato ally and pretty stable one on one side since decades on the other side like groups of kurdish fighters take care based in northeast syria has taken everybody by surprise even donald trump who's withdrawal of american troops on the region acting as a green light to the turkish now so i mean it's not something new now the the real problem for for the you're or for trump is that you have to allies in the area like me as being metered upon towns and villages yeah but i think it's not a complete surprise because a few months ago airborne had already said we would like to add assist the anyway still and he does it just to stay in power a week in a week's time supersize day are as you got enough and peace to the dp on on board yet seems indian if you look in the long term strategy i mean you can conclude that well turkey will go on and yes obviously everybody would try murdering their attacks but but what can they do we have the wider issues don't we that we can no longer rely upon the united states even we've been supporting the western forces against is yeah so what do you do when you allies are fighting each other i mean but in in world war two as well so they no longer but also there was bands of kurdish fighters fighting in the second world war under britain as well so it's just historically but donald trump is trying to distract from that impeachment and he's always concerned about his own hustle he wants a trump tower in vinnie his UK correspondent for your needs and florence biedermann his london bureau chief for press now scaling -versity of turkey's military action against oily separate donald trump and his twitter account with the rest of the american government i think it really is you know he blindsided them with this there was no discussion of this wrong and he has no concern his tweet that he you have to remember everything for him as a reality show plotline you know he is a kadarshian president the n. which one is the more important the most stable the more poor for i mean so whatever the game is yes that we'd be threat of sanction there may be some sanction he was worried he watched the sunday shows impeachment was not going away so many stories have faded in his time this was getting bigger serious consequences and there have been warnings of economic sanctions from the US to completely different messages i think in this scenario you have to turkey which is not the case now but i mean this has been a constant that they feel the troops also had this kind of obsidian complex like the they are surrounded by enemies if many of them now decide with impeachment creeping up even a fox news poll this week said fifty one percent now impeachment and removal if that number keeps creeping up on me didn't and say what he thought was this guy was saying oh yeah you know just let us go back in maybe help you with your tower probably in a coded way and then he kurds can no longer protect those prisons because they've got fight turkey and he you know he's he's just like well they're not coming is statements this week they're not coming here you know that's for europe to deal with say the same thing in the space of twenty four hours i mean we had donald trump withdrawing the troops in northeastern syria and then already we have the defense secretary mark asper warning flayed himself for trump this cross the line even with him and he's been one of the most vociferous attackers and we'll see whether kind of congress have you throw a dead cat on the table no matter what you're talking about you suddenly go to talk about this dead cat that is you know a political strategy that lynton crosby famous in the UK has been using for a couple of years this could be the moment where even they decide it's not worth picking up this guy mitt romney strongly came out and chastised the president and we'll see sir securities on at the border and it's a constant in in turkish politics i mean since the kids like i've been busy in hong kong bureau chief for a remember the source of weapons for turkey anyway so you can have the again that that kind of reaction but indian i mean the priority for the one would be sometime we have the european union arguably the only body that can properly stand up toward on at the moment because we we have the threat of him sending millions of isn so you go thousands of isis fighters always done as pluck out those two to take them to create some kind of moment in the next couple of weeks where he's going to say i'm bringing the of which is what the likes of the other leaders think of leo varadkar if you see emmanuel macron has come across this quarter impatient in all this he's the one who's pushing richard the country and he won't he won't change anything in what he's doing pretty convinced like maybe he will sort on the offensive one or two i don't think we'll see stronger action by congress to put real sanctions and try to stop turkey that's the that's america's internal issues that it has as a result but in the mean and wider an enveloping more people we've seen that this week he's starting to throw rudy guiliani guiliani under the bus as well he is pure distraction it is dead cat strategies the house i think known now why because i mean you have these ambiguous towards turkey for years and years as i don't know i mean but as long as the turkish army won't consider the reach their goal they won't change the action why would they i mean they had kind of okay a strategy about protecting the cast he doesn't even understand the kurds are you know he falsely said this week will then other allies they went with us at normandy which is the most flippant thing ever we would like you to be part of the club but then there was so much reluctance they played this game for the kids and now turkey really abandon the idea of completely so then yes they can impose some sanctions i think already netherlands said they wouldn't send them weapons which i'm not sure it's the be used oh he's talked about this week is he's got two of the remaining members of the so-called beatles that kind of group that did all the videos of beheadings he were ever to citizens who were being stripped to their british citizenship agee's your way i think those those is description at france has now decided to consider imposing sanctions against turkey but how much influence can the e u was the win and maybe i should be more careful in the way i tweet and talk but in the end the reality is like there is this you know this is it is in america and it's amazing that lindsey graham the congressman from south carolina who has been a staunch defender of trump really justice against these guys who murdered US journalist james foley you know he's not caring as he is he's not carrying it going to be thousands of isis fighters that can suddenly get into europe for many people will give them less incentive to vote labour in this election probably vote lib dem because they don't want jeremy corbyn to carry on after losing another election he's already been through one that he assemble that's it he likes strong man and gone and he thinks he can get at trump tower that is it so he'll do what they're gonna say is completely blown down and convinced him to do this there is borough about jeremy corbyn because john macdonald who's affected deputy gave an interview yesterday finally enough to alistair campbell former labor spin doctor in which he said if they lose generally yes we've got a few minutes to go through the newspapers what does everybody found this morning yesterday it'll full of vodka who's who's the poster boy when you have such a fractured political system it's incredibly difficult to get anything done yes michael said well this

monaco prime minister ireland syria trump america EU UK twenty years fifty one percent twenty four hours eighteen months three years two years
Who are the factions competing for favour in Boris's court?

Coffee House Shots

20:23 min | 1 year ago

Who are the factions competing for favour in Boris's court?

"This podcast is kindly supported by Vodafone. Hello and welcome to coffee has shots spectators daily cuts on Katie balls joined by James Who Saif and the Mail on Sunday columnist Dan Hodges judges now is beginning to look inevitable that Boris Johnson's be crowned the next prime minister in two weeks time but what of how he will govern as ministers Johnson and novelists to be in his cabinet there are other the factions keep competing for his approval is being predicted that Boris Johnson will have more of a court than his predecessors groups of courtiers offering rival advice he will listen to these groups and play them off so which groups are vying lying for Johnston's ear. Now I've written this week on coffee has about this that I can't eight but I'm sure my guest today we'll be able to add some of their own but just to run free them. We have the old retain us and these the Oh time parliamentary supporters of Boris Chris Johnson Big Ben Wallace Nigel Adams Jake Berry these are supposed to see being with him since twenty sixteen and when he didn't have such luck with his Tory dealership campaign and of stock for him pre thick and then we have the new kids on the block. That's people like Gavin Williamson. James Wootton have come for the two thousand eighteen nineteen efforts as Lucy the city hall crit people he will around Boris Johnson. Here's mayor of London expect to have a prominent road if he takes number ten will walden at Lissa then there's the European research group spoken a lot many times on Coffee House shots figures that Jacob Frey Small Mark Francois Brexit is who want to see that brexit delivered. There's team vote leave. Those burr shirts knows from the referendum campaign. There are the Echavarri as as we could call them carry Simmons that goes with Ben Idiots and then there are the men and women of government those figures Trenton surely have a place in the Boris Johnson Cabinet and finally team Crosby Texter Lynton crosby and what role he is or isn't playing so Dan to start with year I've listed for I think some of the groups how do you see the various groups fooling around Boris Johnson. I think he's very accurate described. The groups that are forming around Boris but thanks quite interesting to step back and ask white is that we do have so many disparate groups sort of jostling for the kings of the moment and I think the fundamental problem that Boris Johnson in is GonNa face is it there are no Johnson nights as as such Boris when he takes over is going to be in my the one of the most personally isolated or maybe politically isolated prime minister's we've had when when black took over he was obviously at the hall of a very extensive very well disciplined very sophisticated <hes> audie logical stroke political oh movement it to the same extent when David Cameron took over the camera Kenwright sits at spent a number of years planning their political strategy buying into the political strategy organizing around there politicals strategy. acidy Boris is not going to have any of the of that at at and actually the person I think who he reminds me of in a sense is is Theresa May and when to resume took over and was himself quite an isolated quite early early on within cabinet and more broadly politically and I think that's why we've got this. We've already we're already seeing at within the campaign there is already degree of factional infighting which which is less actually factional and more personal personal for Boris his ear and I think as we move forward that is can be potentially be a serious problem. James Degree that erotic chaotic court. I think it's worth remembering which is whatever the political wisdom of this. This is kind the vote Boris Johnson once he doesn't like being tied down to one source of political advice. He likes this OBE yeah. He likes to sit there. As kind of Sun King with these people can orbiting around him and he doesn't doesn't like to distilling simply choose to buy one group or whatever now you can argue with that. It's going to be a recipe for trouble in Downing Street Cetera et Cetera et Cetera but I think we see that he has deliberately chosen to have this kind of open open door policy towards people. He's chosen to stay in touch with multiple people I think back to when Obama won the Labor leadership and his aides took his mobile phone off him on the basis that you know all communication was going to have to come through someone no noon taking Boris Johnson's mobile phone him and indeed. I think he still is in communication. A whole bunch of people why taxed but is what I think the role of idealistic comes in which the idea of someone who brought us trust you know he's Old City Hall Chief of Staff Somebody who you can try and to manage this process but let me talk to report is going to pick run essentially instrumental reason which is the in the current political predicament they are in. He is the person you can get them out of this mess and that's that is essentially the mission. He's had on your if he fails. He is going to be even learned even most people in politics but if he's accedes it will create its own momentum now. Let me look at the various groups that assum I think he would say that they actually have the greatest influence when it comes to speaking birth Johnson getting what they want but it isn't always that way John which figures you think has the most wheel the most influence on Johnson you've written previously no males on about the fact there seems to be this official campaign rain behind Boris Johnson said to have actual press rose and then those seems to be team carry at times and that's carry Simmons his partner. He listened the in the ECO warrior group so in part because he has a fix on environmentalism. Yes I think that was is a quite a generous demarcation for carries role within tim bars. I think speaking to team within people within the official campaign they see her influences going <hes> quite merely that the sinecure of green issues. I have to have to be honest. I know I mean I think she is obviously going to be an influential figure within his administration or certainly as he's campaigned currently seems to be structured. She's going to be going to influential. I mean being entirely honest there is there. Is there a number of very. The senior people around Boris Johnson who are very concerned about Kerry Solomon's potential influence upon his administration that is something that a number of people in our giving active thought too about how that is manage going forward but I think more broadly to sort of broaden out from from carrying I mean I think James is touching. I think the reality is that each of the people that you listed will at various times have a significant degree of influence over Boris depending on the the the the moment I think so depending on the political reality of the moment I think there is no doubt that the biggest decision he's going to have to make how he integrates the G. and that that sort of very hard of course grind the Tory Pro Brexit euroskeptism into into his administration because as James said that Boris Johnson has one job at the moment and and that job is to bring back to the Tory fold those Tory voters have abandoned the Tory party before the brexit party I mean the reality is it is not Boris Johnson that has one Johnson this leadership election. It is Nigel ferrall. She was one Boris Johnson. This leadership election and the moment Boris Johnson's accession was secured with European elections where the tourists were were annihilated by for ocean the Brexit Party so I think in the short term that is going to be the biggest fundamentally see how does integrate that as I say that hardcore orgeon element into his cabinet into his government without completely alienating the more moderate elements of the company. That's okay by that James because I mean look various groups. There are some that have I suppose more likely to run into or against each other and you have European Research Group you have Jacob Frey small in duncan-smith has not been given an official role in the membership stage of the contest to have the grape epidemic of government and by that I mean people like Matt Hancock Vicious do not generate Lucy Fraser. You wouldn't really expect to have too much in common but the people who go to E.. G. Meeting yet the current behind the same candidate so g think you conceive reached wet. Boris Johnson can keep Steve Fake happy and also keep the minimum government happy. Will they be happy just to have a job. Even if the guy for this very hard brexit so I think the Panglossian view is Boris. Johnson puts no deal on the table Europeans side that he is despite having said it's a million to one chance he is serious about this is perpetual lay a concession offered up on the backstop bodies sufficient to satisfy the DP the reopen the put it in Borgeson declared a great diplomatic triumph brings it back to parliament I'm because it is Boris Johnson selling it because what you're saying about stage two of the process you you don't get all of L._G._B._T.. Whistled down and most of them vote for it and some more Labor M._p.'s vote for it because they genuinely worried about no deal this time and he gets a deal through and suddenly he's off to the races. The assaults come out of the BREXIT party balloon. He's a few is bat too. Pessimistic views one pessimistic view would be the E._U.. Causes Bluff and and he is left at that point having to do it or not and which point parliament steps in and essentially everything comes tumbling down. I think there was there was a big question about the e O._R._G.. And the split blitz in it but occurred on the third time but maize deal was bought for collins when figures like in duncan-smith Jacob rees-mogg abortion himself voted for the deal to get brexit one is steep acre amount Francois continue to. To invade against that there is an interesting question about web g own on how much they really because ultimately the only basically withdrawal agreement that has lost forever is the laxed up and in fact by Stop Stop lost forever. Would they consider forty nine billion to get out of the E._U.. Cheaper the price on with a lot of are other concerns fade away because of direction Washington was promising to go in face to of negotiations. I mean there was a very interesting question passionate. About what is the test to serve his cabinet is it a willingness to publicly say the U._K.. Is leaving over the forty first. Come what may we would like to be a deal. We will leave on television. I come what may with the story is that the test and you see people such as I'm the RUB beginning to move themselves towards that point of view or is the test genuinely believing but no deal would be fine Nazis attention. I mean there are some people close to to no the only people who are in the camp and other people's. You'll government won't be boarding basically it's it's better to say look if you're prepared to publicly and privately support policy that is enough and licking teaser cabinet when you look at the the various factions there are some pretty on M._p.'s in the parliamentary arena but he looked at the older tena so that group of amputee with peanut versions in for the long haul now back when it was unfashionable to save because Ben Wallace Nigel Adams Jake Berry Corner to a degree down at least big. It's GONNA expect to get cabinet jobs in baton because you'll see people maybe in Gavin Williamson and then again. We have two cabinet ministers so there's going to be a scramble to test is loyalty is is the problem. This goes back to what I was talking about earlier when I was saying about I if you like that the lack of all Johnson nights as it were Johnson I organization I mean with the greatest respective of those people that you just listed as as the own retainers they are not people you would instinctively say are sitting at the top rank of talent within the parliamentary Conservative Party and there is going to be a decision Boris is going to have to make back the extent to which he rewards his allies but also has to reward and rely on those people who have not in instinctively been his allies and I think to follow up with I think I think James made a very very important important point. <hes> which again goes back to this balance between the G and those sort of government equalled what was it government's sort positive men and women and men and women women men and women men and women of men and women of government who are in a very different place from the I mean the reality is that Boris for all he's up. Boundless Optimism mm-hmm ISM is not going to be able to secure a markedly different offer from the European Union to that that was offered to reason to Theresa May and at that point there there are there are two questions one. To what extent will Leo G. BE PREPARED TO SELL A cell minor concessions to Boras as major concessions or concessions significant significant enough to give to give Boris's withdrawal agreement fare went fair wind and the second thing is if they can't sell that and Boris is presented with the option no the option but no deal to what extent the men and women of government who are prepared to as it will go along the right up until October thirty first at that point feel like they have to get to get off the ride because whilst you can see circumstances where saying I'm Barack for example can agree to serve in government to you try and as it were lend her weight to efforts to secure a deal and moves away from an ideal scenario to get your point where I'm barraged is actually standing up advocating no deal scenario before or on October thirty first that that is a real stretch this I would enough if he you slam the door and Boris Johnson's face and say we're not talking to you. The actually makes his life easier because I think the vast majority of those men of minimum government types cheese fries MONOGAM- <hes> Ka Katie is updated it. I think most of them and I've even maybe even rubbed with say look okay if he you won't negotiate then the blame lies that but if they aren't prepared to negotiate and the concessions that are offered they all they all genuine concessions not enough when that will matter one person. I think we haven't taught by who maybe should thank you. We Hugely Important is David Frost former Europe strategize thrown off his former British Chambas Bolton then went run the Scottish Whisky Association Boris Johnson Men recruited him to be his special adviser at the Foreign Office Boris Johnson as huge respect what his opinion I am only certain he will come into number ten and that he will play a big role in shaping Boris his brexit policy and I think the biggest single question of portions premiership is what does he choose to kind of essentially on for Brexit and I think is a lot of the work in the transition team on Brexit is in December Geoffrey Cox the current Attorney General because that to my mind's just but the instinct is more towards. Let's get a change backstop is impermanent Rav than a right that start writing this whole treaty with you're agreement treaty a from scratch now finally and James. I think he might have just answered the question but I've wanted to ask you by which figure who figures do you think listeners. Would you say perhaps the most when important people from your perspective when it comes to the court Boris Johnson Whoa I think the I'm not trying to duck the issue but I think what I'm GonNa do but I am trying to duck the issue but I we'll do not know I think as we said the nature of the of the Boris Johnson cooled is it is going to be so broad it is going to be so diffuse. It is going to be so normally. Logical in that sense that I think we all going to see a number of people rising and falling as the the political circumstances in the political situation demands and I think at at this stage to to pick out one individual I have to say I I make making it up and I think I think one of the things that he's concerning a number of conservative M._p.'s is there there is a perception all the eight lack of order and a lack of structure which walls may align itself with the more engaging and flam flamboyant aspects of our our next prime minister's character character is is something is causing concern about how it will actually work when it comes to the day to day administration is different I think usually with the wisdom of crowds on this. I'm someone who's the policy exchange on part of the other day said they looked out and they always massive donut of people crowding around here. Everyone ministers journalists spies and they wanted who've is was and they thought this must be the most powerful man in England and so being a politician what they did was they evasive work that way round to get close to see who this person was to them and it was Eddie Lester and I think that reveals how important he is going to be Boris. Johnson is going to be very important in the if you were talking about. What if you were an ambitious story the two phone numbers you want right now is Boris Johnson at yesterday's mobile numbers because if you can text Boris Johnson he might because the way he's mine was it might SIP is mind that you've texted him but if you lose texted you pretty could've guaranteeing your follow up and I think essentially what is to be a new chief of staff but the kind of gatekeeper I think it was I mean Boris's turning a lot of people but they are going to be in the room when big decisions are making a taken? The constants is for these meetings that kind of thing is going to be an idealist his hands and he used to determine the balance of the factions these key meetings also if I had to name your one person I think it would be too. I it was having this and other things remember. which is I mean? First Hundred Days Boris will be very different from the rest of his premiership. I understand the kind of essentially the deal with administers the he's coming in to get Boris through dot I days to October thirty first bit beyond but don't expect him. If Boris Johnson is prime minister for six seven years don't expect to be there at the end of it I mean at Easter is is going to only going to do this to guessing previous bid and then the Brussels and government will vote and I think if government if the government's advisers the big F it will view <hes> constantly regenerated cell phone come out in different types. We'll see we'll see I I. It's obviously going to be the Brexit Boris I then. I think you'll see the kind of big domestic reform government if he manages gotTa Brexit deal through. I think it will constantly keep evolving. Thank you James Thank you Dan and he liked this delivers a review on the eighteen stool and while you're here why not subscribe to the magazine if you haven't already we have a car and author twelve issues to twelve pounds along the twenty pound Amazon Betcha Discourtesy W._W._w.. Dot Spectator dot co two e Kaye Ford Sash Voucher.

Boris Johnson Boris Boris Chris Johnson Boris Johnson Cabinet prime minister James Johnson Mark Francois Brexit Dan Hodges Gavin Williamson official Ben Wallace Nigel Adams Jake B James Wootton Lucy Fraser Theresa May European Research Group Obama Jacob Frey Simmons
David King on Climate Repair

Talking Politics

50:50 min | 1 year ago

David King on Climate Repair

"Hello. My name's David Runciman. And this is talking politics today. An extra episode as part of our climate series, which looking David king who was chief scientific advisor to the plant and Brian governments. He was Britain's climate embassador at the Paris climate accords, and we're talking about extinction rebellion rephrasing the polls and saving the planet. Talking politics is brought to you in partnership with the London review of books as politics speeds up down with a subscription to the ele- where Brexit and Trump or any part of a picture that includes while everything else read, relevant pieces and subscribe at a special rate at eleby dot co dot U K forward slash talking. Just a few months three years since the Paris climate conference and the Paris climate accords. And we're gonna talk about what's changed since. Then if you just take his back 'cause you heavily involved you at that. And you instrumental in what came out of that conference at the time how big a success did you feel? It was how important and event at the the Paris climate agreement feel in December twenty fifteen it is a giant step forward because we had been struggling for so long to get an international agreement that had any bite to it at all. So if I take you back to Copenhagen where the agreement was all built around the Kyoto principle, which goes back to the beginning of these discussions. I wrote a blog before and ended up as an editorial in several newspapers saying Copenhagen could not be success. The reason was very simple the United States president as much as he wanted to sign up. And that was a bomber couldn't possibly do it because it was a top down agreement. The was trying to be reached in every country would be told how much they should reduce their emissions by what period of time and his Senate and congress had not approved. In fact, I think there were only ever to vote in favor of reaching the Kyoto agreement. So we had a complete failure in Copenhagen which caused quite a big setback for the climate change process. So we have to rebuild after Copenhagen, and we get to the point of Paris. We had to vitality and move away from top down agreement to an agreement in. Which each country was given the right to determine what each contribution would be to reducing emissions agreeing house gases, and this meant the president of the United States could come on board. We all knew that. And it was the only reason we abandoned the top down process, but this bottom up process, we arrived and a hundred ninety seven nations agreeing to and of course, some of those nations were making very few promises to manage their greenhouse gas emissions. But nevertheless, we had a global agreement and that agreement if I can encapsulate it in what I think with three most important elements the first we should aim towards not exceeding if possible. One point five degrees centigrade above the pre industrial level going forward in time. And in any case much less than two degrees. If I can pause on that for a moment and just say where the British. Government came in at a meeting of the Pacific nations forum, the head of the Paris meeting will met in appear NEW GUINEA, and it was at that meeting where there was a confrontation between the prime minister of stralia and the prime minister museum premise strata his speech was essentially Pacific island nations. Don't worry directly about climate change grow your economies. And then you can do whatever is needed and the new Zealand Prime Minister simply said, I agree with my colleague, the Pacific island, premiers every single one of them were just aghast at this. Because many of them could see their islands nations going underwater where you can't adapt when you disappear, right? So I quickly got the High Commissioner to the Fiji islands to run over and get a call suit number ten and say. Said David wants to change the British position to support them on the one point five degrees. And that that was the initial move towards one point five degrees came from that meeting, the stratum prime minister left the meeting and a bit of a rush got in his private plane about time he landed in the stray leeann lost his job. I was Tony of it happens in straight. So that's how we got to one point five. That's how we got to one point five. Let me just emphasize every nation agreed to that one point five fear. We then had every nation contributing what it could we hadn't been able prior to this meeting to add up what those contributions meant. But we could already see this was still on a three to four degrees centigrade world before the end of the century. But the third part of the agreement that I thought was critically important was and this would be reviewed so that we can Bech these two commitments going forward and twenty twenty is the deadline date for that review so three and a bit years is a long time in politics. We know a week is a long time threes is a very long time. We have a different American administration Britain has been overtaken by Brexit, which is more or less crowded out all other considerations. So the the politics. Changed? But also, we know more about the climate since then the tight those into stages so in a sense of Siam fair question, but given that Paris was geared to making it possible for the Americans come on booed. If you had known, what was coming next, would you? I mean you. But generally, you think a different approach would have been adopted always is still in a sense the best that we could have hopeful. I think it was the victory could heard for. I don't think any other agreement was possible. Because what was it very clear, and this was clear Copenhagen, if the United States doesn't sign China had said we want sign is the two was biggest emitted by far than sign. The the agreement was meaningless. So we have at least got an agreement and with United States taking the position that they will withdraw Trump city has withdrawn econ with Joe until two thousand twenty if they do is draw the rest of the world still. Feels we all have to act. This isn't a problem that can just be abandoned because it is critical for the future of humanity. So I think that around the world there's still a lot of action. But there is now a real lack of leadership the Bama played that role during his second period in the presidency prior to that I would say Tony Blair was the first major leader to step up to the plate that was critically important. What what Blair managed to do to say we in Britain were reduce our emissions by eighty percent by two thousand fifty regardless of negotiations. We know we consoles the problem we're any two to three percent of the world's emissions. But nevertheless, because it's at to us. And by the way, we are an island nation two with written heavily arising sea levels. If we can say what every nation should do. That was our principal. We can negotiate much more strongly. Now, the British government did more to achieve the Paris agreement. I would say than all other governments put together we also created an interesting leave. This was David Cameron, creating an international climate fund with initially four point five billion pounds in it. And then he added another four billion in the run-up to the Paris agreement. So the the British position internationally will seem to be absolutely clean handed and away. It's Roenick that I think most British citizens wouldn't recognize the idea that Britain was leading on this maybe internationally. But it's. It is one of the armies of the politics of climate change that often isn't appreciated by the citizens of the leading nations. Yeah. It is success story Britain's Royal and the fact that emissions significantly down over the last couple of decades. It's not known and his real question during the period when I was chief sound of your visor with Tony Blair. I was on television and radio and free to talk about everything we were doing when I came back into government into the Cameron coalition government. And then I stayed on all the way through to government. I was never allowed on television radio. And now, this is a very simple point. And I'm going to name names the person was Lynton Crosby, and it turned out the Lynton Crosby is not only a climate skipped dig, but he was telling Cameron. And then may this is not an issue that will get people to vote for you. And so every time the media came to me, it was turned not by the foreign office was turned number ten so the British public didn't have a chance of knowing all the very good things we were doing and always through to the may government. I would say still Britain was playing very good leap in the program. I had one hundred eighty five climate cultural attaches in embassies around the world that was down to sixty five when I left under may and with Boris Johnson as foreign secretary at that point, I left knowing that the numbers could will win down to zero. There is an issue and. It's an issue of global leadership leadership requires speaking to the public taking the public with you on the question of the one point five. So as you say, what what you got out of Paris was on the one hand a target and on the other hand set of commitments that clearly quite a long way short of that target. And then over time the hope was through this iterative process. The gap would narrow. What do you feel in the three since about the target now? Because of course question about how are we going to get governments and we'll come onto that. How are we gonna get governments to change behaviors including our own behavior? Does the one point five targets still look to you like it's in the right place. Or who we learn in the last three years more about the the pace of climate change that makes even that potentially dangerous. What we have learned is that actually the predictions in particular of a Cambridge scientists pita Waddams had already been saying we're losing ice in the Arctic at an unprecedented rate. And when the Arctic Ocean is joining the Arctic summer is open no longer covered by that region of the planet is going to heat up very rapidly. This is exactly what is now happening. And this is happening. Just over one degree above preindustrial averages only so. About half a degree below the target and is happening now. That's right. And just quickly say I think that the challenges to all of humanity from the melting of the Arctic ice it's floating ice on the Arctic doesn't racy levels as it melts. But it means the blue ocean is soaking up sunshine in the Arctic summer that region of the planet is heating up at nearly three times the rate of the rest of the planet, and this is upsetting our climate systems. We're enjoying a lovely early summer here. But the climate systems of the whole world being upset by this. But in the end the biggest challenge is Greenland sitting right next to the Arctic Ocean is likely to lose all of its ice. She levels then would rise by seven meters. And just to be clear is likely to lose it on current projections. Or from where we are now from where we are now in other words because the summer see is is already. Gone probably hitting the point of irreversible loss of Greenland ice, unless we step in with measures to try and rephrase the whole area. So when you talk about rephrase, it's a complete step change from say, the language of the Paris agreement which is about hitting certain targets limiting the damage making on the worst case trajectories we level off. You're not language which is much more directly about intervention and presumably people call geo engineering is that because you feel it. There is no other choice now. I mean, if we stayed on the Paris path is you'll be three years on that wouldn't cut it anymore. Then he let me be absolutely clear about this. We have to cut our emissions desirer as the priority. It's not as if we abandoned what we agreed in Paris. It we are emitting about forty five billion tonnes of conduct side equivalent every year and to take forty five billion tons a year out of the atmosphere would would cost much more than anything we could possibly afford. So first and foremost the priority reduce emissions zero as quickly as possible and just to be clear when you say as because again, people here conflicting messages about this is the cutoff date twenty fifty twenty seventy or on the more alarmist potentially scenarios twenty thirty California has declared it will hidden. It's hero in twenty twenty five. That's quite a big challenge. Is it do? I don't think it is. I think that if we're talking about net zero we've just got to remember that farming is a big emit. There's a lot of thing emitted from the farming processes, whether it's livestock or plants. So I don't think it's feasible to expect any given country to hit net zero unless that country is able to grow considerable amount of forest you Congo for us by twenty twenty five. We'll you can't. But you can start growing for a spy turned twenty five. I guess the point. I want to emphasize if we don't hit knits emissions is in game. Then if we do it net zero we just got to remember, we will only stabilize the temperature in about fifteen to twenty years after hit net zero and every process that has begun such as the melting of the Arctic and I haven't discussed the antibiotic as well. Every process that has begun. We'll continue. So what we need is to go beyond the net zero and see that we take greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. Let me give you some numbers. Two hundred seventy is the pre industrial parts per million of greenhouse gas equivalent in the atmosphere today, we're at four hundred four hundred and ten parts per million. I believe we need to get back to three hundred and fifty or less. So we've got to stabilize emissions to zero. And then we gotta pull greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere at the point where we get two zero one hundred ten is more likely to be worked for hundred and fifty or more. I mean, so we're not talking about getting from where we are. Now, we're talking about it could be considerably higher at the point. Whether it's twenty thirty twenty forty twenty. We've got good behavior, which we haven't got at the moment. This oppose we had good behavior. Then I would say four hundred and fifty. It could go to five hundred. But if we begin the process of drawing down Comdex from the atmosphere, of course, we may not hit that sort of level. I believe that if we get above four hundred and fifty we're going to get irreversible changes in the global political systems that would cause such chaos that the global economy will be destroyed our capacity to act itself by that point been destroyed. Yes. So let me just say why do I feel so gloomy about this? When I was in the foreign office. We ran a big program of work on risk analysis associated with climate change in India and China and both countries cooperated fully with us. We had army generals admirals security service, people onboard one hundred twenty total working for close on a year to produce a report. And in that report, we also brought in actuaries from the city of London insurance and reinsurance sectors. This hasn't been done before to actually take a risk analysis approach all saying, what is the most likely challenge is what is the low likelihood challenge that has a massive impact on your society. And each of the two countries were very cooperative and came up with four challenges and ask the insurance people to to work out what the risks were. And it was a big surprise. The first is rising sea levels in China. The heaviest density of population is on the southeast coast. And so there's nearly half a billion people who are at risk from storms say, but with increased sea level, meaning the incursion of the water goes further, but the biggest risk in China, and they're wrong going say in the world comes from their request. Can you look at rice production? What is the likelihood that in any given year are rice crops all fail, and that's obviously a key to this success? And that percentage at the moment is very low. It's not a tool lightly, but car degree one degree temporizing above the present level. And that becomes a very severe likelihood in a given year. We talking about one two percent, which is likely it will happen. The biggest risk is rising sea levels driving people away from their normal place of abode and the first city that will go under is Calcutta already suffering from storms at sea giving rise to floods in Calcutta. It will become an unlivable city and right across the Angie's mouth from Calcutta is Bangladesh. That'll be the first country that becomes on the. So you talking about one hundred sixty million people looking for somewhere else to both. China India taking these analyses on in their own countries because they see this risk as a very severest their future. So you've started not use a different kind of language when talking about this. And you start heard you talk about climate repair as a way of thinking about the challenge in that again, it's sort of step change. So it's a way from adoption mitigation to the idea that we have to step in and get back somehow to where we were before just a bit about what you mean by climate repair. What what would we have to repair? I mean, we'd have to repair the polls presumably, yes. And that is very challenging. I think both reducing greenhouse gases from the the atmosphere and rephrasing -ly the pulled both very challenging technically. But if we just remember landing person on the moon was impossible task that president Kennedy. Set his his scientists and technologists, but it was a chief d-, I think that we have to achieve this. We have to rephrase the polls you think that the future of humanity depends upon our ability to rephrase the polls, I do not see how we can put up with the rising sea levels to the level of let's say a fraction of the seven meters. That would in other words, if we lost a quarter of the green land is alone. That would be a couple of meters sea-level rise. I don't see how we would survive this because every city sitting on a coastline around the world. It's not only the island nations, but all of these coastal cities and roughly eighty percent of our cities are on coastlines. So I think. Let me come back to rice the biggest rice paddy fields in the world or in Vietnam. And in the Congleton now, there's a danger. If you get a rising sea levels in a storm and the rice paddy fields are completely flooded. They will become unproductive they will be completely salinated, and you won't be able to grow in Iraq in those paddy fields. So when we looked at China, we also had to look at the rest of the world and the impact on all of this because the Chinese have got deep pockets, they'd be out on the global market place. I believe the global marketplace will collapse. So when you ask me climate repair, I'm saying it's going to be necessary to do all of these measures. But I'm not sure which are the key measures. So for example, if we could bring greenhouse gases rapidly, and I'm talking about thirty years down to hundred and fifty. Parts per million. It may be that we then don't need to use other techniques to rephrase the Arctic. However, I think we need to get those techniques ready and do demonstrators to demonstrate that we can do it. Talking politics is brought to you in partnership with the London review of books. As you'll know then a big part of the China who will be one of the politics now is that those two imperatives possibly pull in different directions. So one is about behavioral change and social changes, well, leaving aside carbon capture but merely change people's behavior to get the amount of carbon in the atmosphere down could require dramatic political interventions I think most people would hear the phrase rephrasing, the polls and think well, that's nothing to do. With me. I'm not gonna does not can do to contribute to that. That's going to depend upon high level government spending. And then throw a scientists and other expert in devising new techniques. It's going to be for want of better word a very technocratic project, whereas reducing carbon emissions ought at some level to be a democratic project and the danger some people see it is that the conflicting messages they're actually make the democratic project harder because of a feeding well if in the. End. This is going to need a geo engineering solution. It doesn't actually depend on this. How do you bridge that? I mean in a way that's the fundamental political challenge of our time. How do you persuade people that in a world where technocracy is going to matter democracy still Mattis to I think the answer to question is look at what is already happening. So if we look at the cost of renewable to produce electricity initially fifty to seventy times the cost of gas and coal produced electricity. Germany nine thousand nine hundred nine so an opportunity for the German government and people if we put a feed in tariff on footabll takes for example, if I give you the option putting festival takes on your roof. I promise you that every kilowatt hour you put onto the grid. I will pay you much much more than you would have to pay for that kilowatt hour of electricity. They thought the whole world will mean these photovoltaics because of climate change nineteen eighty nine and Germany would produce them. So they would have the global market. So that was the sort of justification for putting quite a big tariff onto the taxpayers of Germany. This created a market pull an ink came produces producing federal takes in the price. Kept coming down Britain came in nine hundred ninety seven and by the two thousand and two we had most European governments with feed in tariffs. California came in at about that time as well. The net result was that the price of edible takes and winter on is now competitive with coal at least in all of the temperature done countries between the tropics it's cheaper to produce new power from renewable energy than it is from coal and gas, and that includes the intimacy figures and song. So what we see is a big potential opportunity for re growing our economies through these new technologies emerging and becoming competitive and then using the marketplace to spread them in two thousand fifteen even before we reached that agreement. In Paris, more than fifty percent of new electricity production around the whole world was renewable energy. So this was a major step forward. But what we don't have is a mechanism for dealing with the rate of change that is required. There's a tremendous inertia in built into the system. The inertia is first of all physical plant. If you go power stations that are co five you don't want to just switch them down before they have crumbled into the ground. You want to keep producing kill or thous pull the money in the second kind of inertia more difficult is the one that you're really asking questions about which is human behavior. So for example, if you happen to be a very wealthy person and you own a large number of coal mines or gas production. Or if you're in the oil business, you have a vested interest to maintain that. And you put a lot of money in a lot of. Effort into persuading government to keep funding. The work that you're doing and people to keep buying that. So we've got a kind of political inertia in the system that is very real. I mean, I'm going to say the big climate skeptic movement only occurs in English language, and the reason is because there are two guys in the United States. We've put traps of billion dollars plus into the anti climate change propaganda. So it is a very big issue. But if if your challenge to me is do we have to take a hit on our standard of living? I don't believe that is necessary. But I can't prove this. I believe all of these new technologies that are coming into the marketplace will be worth something like three four trillion dollars a year by twenty twenty four and as we stimulate this new economic growth, it's clean growth will be. Cleaning up the city's we'll all be breathing more healthier. We'd be living longer it's cetera et cetera. But do you think that that can be done without large-scale government intervention now? So the stimulus stimulus stimulus that the market will generate which will trigger among other things behavioral change, and then there's the kind of stimulus that's talked about in relation to a green new deal or whatever it is. Which is an attempt by governments to use that power to engineer dramatic change much quicker than it would happen under market conditions. So if you take the moment extinction rebellion have been slowly on the streets of London getting a lot of publicity and generating interest and people start to focus on their demands. One of their demands is tell the truth while I think you'll doing that one of their demands is Britain get two zero carbon by twenty twenty five which has many people pointed out, I mean, the phrases usually uses unrealistic. But I think the other thing that you'd have to it'd be massively coercive. I mean it would. Involve government acting in ways that were essentially using government power to force lifestyle changes. So that's a twenty twenty five targets is there any way of avoiding at some point facing up to the fact that government coercion is going to be required. I'm going to try to void the word coercion because it it has very negative. Does I'm using deliberately because we we can talk about stimulus and behavioral change in a market context and the other kind of change and I'll get onto this in a bit. Which is what happens on the conditions of war because people have often said, well, the thing that extinction rebellion want would require government action on a scale. We haven't seen since the second World War two which other people say, but that's exactly the thing that we need. I know I know any any fact we do we need this on a very large scale. But and I think is very important. We're not going to get a change like that in a democracy absent tool. Absent an actual war. But I'm going to say, nor would we get a change like that in China, for example, because I've spent an awful lot of time in China, the Chinese government, and the Chinese communist party wouldn't do that. Because they know that their own lifetime would be severely impaired by running up against the bulk of the population the economic growth in China is the biggest thing keeping the communist party in power, and they're not going to slow that down. Of course, what we need is to see if the people the private sector the city of London. It's all of those begin to understand the nature of the challenge and push our government into action. In other words, I'm gonna say the democratic principle is the right way to approach this. And I think this is why I feel somewhat positive about extinction rebellion. I certainly feel very positive. About the Swedish go to thunder. Yes. Or june. Berry sixteen year old is having a global impact. She speaks for the next generation. And she's saying to us what are you leaving us in? She's calling for climate general strike, that's another coercive measure politics at some level. Does come down to people forcing other people to change their behavior. Not just waiting markets. Wait politics forces. Yeah. The fundamental question of our time around climate, which is at what point do we think we're going to have to force change can be forced both ways. So it's not just governments forcing people as you say people, but it's forcing governments so extinction. Rebellion doing civil disobedience, which is one way, but it's the kind of civil disobedience we're talking about here is not on the kind of mass scale, a general strike is a huge step up from that an account believe. Going to happen a climate general strike, but people are started to that language of political compulsion, my own view, and this is really why I'm positive about extinction rebellion and the Swedish go, I believe that we are discussing this. And I've been on television and radio discussing it precisely because extinction billion is getting the attention of the media that it wants and greater Turnberry. She has a Nobel prize though. So so what we're seeing is the public is being made aware of the nature of the challenge faced with now. I'm not going to suggest that all of the media response to extinction rebellion is positive, and we need to think very hard about that. If the actions are seen to be leading to some form of violence, then of course, it's going to lead to very negative response. But nevertheless, just raising the public profile. Around the issue of time of changing getting it up there in the debate is critically important. That's part of the democratic process. Cannot get run your experiences as chief scientific adviser both in the Blair and Brown governments. So I was really struck by a passage Tony blows memoirs. And I'm sure you'll remember this. Well, you may not remember the bidding the memoirs during foot-and-mouth, many people listen to this may not remember this tool, but Tony Blair was planning to call a general election in may two thousand and one and then there was not break foot and mouth and the British countryside, and it had to be postponed. And then he describes in his memoirs meeting with you where you came in. And you you drew a graph on put up some tables showing if certain measures were followed on a particular parth. This is how the outbreak of foot mouth will be contained eventually radically it over a timeframe, and he more or less implied. That as you presenting. It seemed like wishful. Thinking, and then lo and behold, it all happened, and it happened as you described it and in one way to kind of shining example, what happens when governments take scientific advice, and he sort of says, it was amazing on the other hand, what comes across in his memoirs is the fear. The thing that that triggered the need to take this advice. Seriously, was this sense of powerlessness the sense that something had got out of the government's control. And it was interfering with the primary democratic event, which was an election. So you kind of positive and negative thing here, which is that governments. Do listen to advice when it's good advice, and they need to be really scared of something before they'll do it. So if you go from that to this, do you think governments I mean, governments have the capacity to listen to get advice. But are they not yet afraid enough? I mean, doing need it to to sort of impinge on their consciousness in the way that that did with black which is you're gonna have to postpone. Election. It's kind of absolutely cut through. And then he could hear what you had to say. Let me just go back to that foot mouth disease epidemic. Because without that. I would never have gained the confidence of the prime minister and the cabinet for six weeks. I was seeing the prime minister at least once a day, I was traveling around the country and helicopter. I was ready given the opportunity to make everything happen. I was given the British military to operate the whole exercise that we put in place. It was enormous. The total cost of the democ six billion pounds to the economy is the best estimate. I've seen it was enormous. It was the worst put him out Z's. Evidently, the world has seen. And it was science as you described the came to the rescue was epi -demia Logist working with me. And we produced these curves I took them into the prime minister in his autobiography, you can sense the desperation. He says I couldn't understand this. I really hoped it was true. And we had an epidemic that was growing daily on an exponential basis within two days, we tended around into financial decay. But this was a tremendous effort to do this and the the number of animals being culled was outrageous in order to manage this process but necessary, so I then had the attention of government. And then of course, I had an open door on the climate change issue. Is there a way of conveying climate change in a way that any sense would map onto that experience because the immediacy of that is what comes across like, you say it was there was almost a day a key day where Blair had run out of options and on that day memory it. Well. Well, I remember remember the news. I remember the and there was that feeling. This thing was out of control. And then suddenly it wasn't. It was in a way the perfect technocratic moment politics, and what Blair did we say to me on that day? Right. You're in child, and you're going out on television and radio not any minister me explaining what we're doing. And why we doing it that gave me voice on television and radio that I used and the climate change issue. So the answer to your question is. The first big piece of work. I did ofter dealing with the foot and mouth disease epidemic was to to head up a program on flooding coastal defences for the United Kingdom. And this was a heavy piece of work. It took two and a half years one hundred twenty British experts drawn from around Britain, those from other countries like Holland, and we produced a very detailed report using the best climate models out to two thousand eight what would Britain look like under a business as usual scenario. And how could we manage to improve? What looked like a disastrous scenario going forward? I presented that both house of laws. Parliament itself came to the meeting I had a very full meeting. I was actually asked by several MP's, please don't put this in the public domain. Why? Because my constituency seems to be going onto water on the your your modeling. And I said, no the. Whole point is that we want to keep your constituency out of out of the floods. The result of that was I believe getting old party agreement on time it change out of six hundred fifty three votes against the decision to reduce our emissions by eighty percent. Two thousand fifty and to set up the climate change committee of parliament. So it was everyone terrified of what would happen to Britain under the businesses usual scenario. So there is in that story the contingency foot and mouth produces dramatic change at the level of government in blast memoirs. The story that goes along side, which is the bleaker one is the other moment of absolute terror for his government. His first term was the fuel tax protests, which was another point where there was a day where he felt again for people don't remember there was a good brand introduced levian fuel. And then starting with the series. Of blockades of fuel depots, and in the very early days, the internet eat people using the internet kind of organize the country was more or less brought to a standstill and that was panic at the top level government. One thing it had in common with the foot and mouth was that the solution involved the army, I mean involved at least less threatening to hand this over to the army to reopen it, but also the the slightly discouraging feature of that. And it relates to the zone in France is that people can mobilize very quickly and put real pressure on government and the fear of God into government. When government tries to take action particularly through taxation in order to induce babies change. So we seen this in France with Macron and attacks on these. So there's also that question that too in it so relates the appointed by nurture, which is in some ways to billionaires spending money on climate skepticism can have this huge effect is also true that pressure on government doesn't just come on the right side in this. Question. It can also come from people reacting very strongly to attempts by government to change their behavior through through taxation. And again, I mean Blair took a lesson from that. Which is you have to be really really careful and in many ways politically risk averse when interfering peoples belief that they have a kind of right to drive a car. So you got to within in bless, I which was a fairly happy time in some respects, politically nothing terrible happened. But these two events the foot and mouth in the fuel tax which in some ways of both emblematic of the challenge that we face forgetting change around climate. And the army was the solution in both cases, which also gives me pause. Yes. Here's this kind of awkward conclusion, I reach from that the best way to deal with this problem is to put a carbon tax on emissions. So if you're producing electricity. And you have to pay a severe tax. If you're using Colo gas, Royal to produce the electricity. You will be incentivized and you'll be looking at the alternatives very quickly because otherwise you'll be wiped out of business by those who do and the problem is that word tax is a red flag word coercion. And it is a phone. But there are other ways to do it. So for example, the cap and trade process that has been introduced festival in Britain two thousand four weeks up across Europe, and that was putting a price on on carbon. But not in the form of attacks. It wasn't recognizable feed in tariffs instead of placing attacks. You give the utilities obligation and that in effect becomes a feed in tariff. Today, we have different prices for different forms of power on the grid. Everything is in the private sector, but government control has to come in to see that by two thousand fifty we're producing zero from it power onto the grid. And at the same time, we have to see that the private sector still maintains its operations doesn't go out of business. And so we put a different price on nuclear power different price on gas on the different price. On offshore wind, and these prices can change as the marketplace changes in particular is interesting of wind is now half, the price of Newton energy all of the arguments are used to make about the Mead for nuclear energy and very much weakened by this cheapening of of your win. In other words, avoid the word tax or you can use it in a positive way. How is the British government being encouraging people use electric vehicles? If you drive an electric vehicle. The first thing is zeroed tax now road taxes are very small element of what you pay when you buy drive car, but the impact of putting zero road tax on purchase of electric vehicles way beyond that very small loss of tax for the government. And soon you won't be allowed to drive anything electric vehicles into central London. So what you've got is regulation and. Obligation coming through in a way that the public can be taken along with. And I think this is crucial Nigeria for example, also ran into deep trouble when they put taxes on the use of oil and song, it's not easy to operate that way around in India. There's a there was a big big surprise. Because what they had was a massive public subsidy for all forms of energy. And the argument was poor people couldn't afford the electricity, and therefore we have to put a subsidy in very poor argument because the people who were using the electrically were actually the very wealthy people and the poor people were having to make do with other sources. So in fact, what they have introduced now is a gradual removal of all the subsidies except for the poor people and over a period of three years, they managed to remove very heavy subsidies from the. Hall of India rescue last question can blunt question. You've described a series of trends at work in the world, some of which positive changes in both government behavior, but also market-driven behavior by consumers, some of which frankly, pretty scary there things that we know we didn't even know the time of the Paris accords about the pace of climate change and some of these effects at no only now just coming through and the absence of global leadership. Do you think without something really triggering a significant change in global politics and global leadership a kind of global quivalent foot and mouth if you know what I mean, something that actually puts the fear of God and politicians that the positive trends on the rhino enough. Because my feeling is that probably they aren't. But then the thing is how is it possible to conceive a what the thing would be that? Would mean he knows another American president that might be significant political changes in India or China or whatever, but. Way you started which was the absence of global leadership in it's not going to be Britain B onus think not at the moment. Anyway, where's the global leadership can come? From is my interpersonal point of Jeremy Coleman love him love him or hate him. Jeremy Colin's commitment on climate change. Is it Queant to the green party? So he I think would take a global leadership position on this. But I'm not I'm not going to use that as as an answer to your question. I think because the question is is critically important. Clearly, a new president coming into the United States is an opportunity to turn this around. But if I look at all of the candidates that are beginning to emerge. I think I can only see two of them who really would push change the extent that is needed. One is Bernie Sanders and one is only saunder remind win and he might win. But he's a dicey candidate against Trump. But the country in the world that is now doing more on time it change than any other. And is pushing for action is China, and since China is the the biggest Amidror they are a very important part of determining the future. So I'm going to say we need to look at where economic growth is really happening today and see what is happening on climate change in those parts of the world in south East Asia in general where looking at countries that are keen to act on climate change very much driven by the positions of China and in Africa. They're more more countries that are understanding that they can leapfrog into the new clean technologies. Why should they go through the use of the dirty technologies? This of course, doesn't include. They're all rich countries like Nigeria, but for many countries, they are importers of oil. Why wouldn't they encourage electric vehicle? Vehicles. Why wouldn't they encourage net zero emissions because all of those things are good for their economy and economic growth as well. The country I'm working in in Rwanda economic growth. Average eight percent year is now increased nine percent, and we're heading towards ten percent here in just a few years time. A big part of this is removing their dependence on all purchases the most expensive on the world because there are landlocked country coming overland from Mumbai. So what what we see is economic growth hand in hand with moving away from fossil fuels in many of these countries. These are the areas of change that a positive, but if we look at the global situation, the west is still together the biggest emit in the world. And if we don't act we're not going to manage this problem, we all need to act together because the Chinese leadership. Is not seeing to be a leader by the western world. We can't depend on that. And nor do they say their operational chances in the western world to to take leadership position the much more likely to be leading in south East Asia and in Africa, which is what is happening. So I think without political leadership at the highest level in important countries used to be Britain was Germany for period was the United States, but never at a very strong level in the United States. I think we're seeing good leadership in California. I think without really the ship. We're not going to manage the problem. But having said that I think we need a political awakening of the general public as well pushing their leaders to put this on their agenda and take a serious view. Next week, a panel reconvenes, and we're going to catch up on the state of British politics. My name is David Runciman, and we've been talking politics. I have a weakness. And that is when I interviewed for some television, programmes itv's one. The do make here the makeup artist. That I I never had it before. Now. League. On.

Britain Paris China Tony Blair United States Copenhagen twenty twenty prime minister India London review of books David Runciman Arctic president British government Germany California London
Boris' battle for Brexit and Zimbabwe after the death of Mugabe

Between The Lines

28:59 min | 11 months ago

Boris' battle for Brexit and Zimbabwe after the death of Mugabe

"This is an ABC podcast. Get in welcome to between the lines this. Is Tom Switzer always great to have you company now today later on the show Zim Bobby's former leader of forty years Robert Mugabe is dead and while the world so him as a despotic monster. They were tawny few who saw him like this. He was not hit. Let you cannot say he was a Hitler. He was responsible symbol for crimes against humanity he was responsible possibly for genocide but there was another side to him later later in the show what's next for. Zimbabwean stay with us for that but I the brexit circus continues in the UK and it's been more than threes since the biggest ever democratic vote in British history threes since more than thirty three million people went to the polls in a referendum threes since that vote authorize Britain's departure from the EU and yet Britain has filed to leave why I remember Boris Johnson's Dude manifesto deliver unite and defeat was the perfect acronym for election campaign since unfortunately it spills done but they forgot the final e my friends either energize. I say I say to all the dodgers dude food. We are going to the country. We're GONNA get Brits. It does deliver. WE'LL BREXIT is likely to be delayed again. Unite well as Britain conservatives who are divided more than ever defeat will. It's Boris who suffered several parliamentary defeats in the past week and energize is well. It's the reminders at least those in Westminster who are in so what on earth is going on so I'm in heaven is a high profile British commentator Haida and historian of more than three decades. He writes a regular column in the daily and Sunday Telegraph as well as the New Statesman. He's also a professor of history at the university city of Buckingham his new book staring at God version nineteen fourteen two nine hundred nineteen. That's published by Random House this month salmon. Welcome back to Irun. Thank you very much tom now. Give us a sense of where things stand with brexit well. We're supposed to believe in the European Union on the thirty first of October but apartment passed a law last week which was nothing to do with the government. It was the day that the opposition seize control of business in parliament of the law was to force Boris Johnson as prime minister to go to Brussels to ask for an extension until the thirty first of January he has said since then he won't do it if he doesn't do it he's breaking the law and he could be held in contempt of court and sent to prison so we're waiting to see what happens of course if he does go ask for the the extension. His credibility is completely torpedoed because ever since he started to fight his campaign for the Tory leadership in the summer it was on the basis that we would be leaving as he said do all die on the thirty first of October and if he does Austrian extension there's no guarantee also that the European Union will grant it it has it has to be grounded by unanimity of the other twenty seven members and they've been briefings over the last weekend from France that President Mackerel thinks we're just wasting wasting our time and the two where taking the Mickey out of the European Union. We leave immediately. We'll get to that in a moment but back to boras use side that he's credibility they will be damaged if he supports deadline of past the Halloween deadline of toby thirty one but surely some blog you'd that he's credibility is damaged because he has is expelled from the party twenty. One reminder rebels yeah. He's had a very difficult couple of weeks because he's strategist school dominic cummings who isn't isn't a member of the Conservative Party and isn't elected by anybody who has taken a scorched earth approach to those in the Conservative Party who oppose the idea that we might leave without a deal and Cummings Senator Johnson ten days ago have a force of Eight on this. If you lose the vote then throw out anybody who from your inside inside events against you and he is thrown out twenty one people including several former cabinet minister to X. Chancellors of the Exchequer an excellent translator and Nicholas serves Winston Churchill's grandson this caused tremendous outrage in in the Conservative Party in the country scorched earth tactics worthy of Donald Trump and that play will in a parliamentary. It's read democracy. It's very difficult and particularly in our parliamentary democracy add in Arkansas Seventy party whether there's always been ided individual constituency associations associations who choose candidates to become. MP's are independent of the center and can do more or less what they want and this is a very centralist almost dictatorship issue style way to run a political party which doesn't what one of the democracy okay well. The Commons has essentially overridden the prime minister by extending this deadline three months past October October thirty one but as you said before and as the support of all of the European Union governments what's the French likely to do well. France is is a problem and the European Union is not happy ship that the its adherence lighter percentages whenever there's an opinion poll in France it's neck and neck about whether French themselves ought to stay in the EU really yeah because they feel that this national sovereignty and their identity is French. People has been compromised by this also. They didn't like the fact act that they like the Germans are subsidizing other poorer countries who des necessary share all values in the suddenly anywhere near economically successful missile defenses in France the sixth biggest economy in the world we in Britain to the fifth so there's a lot of unrest about the European Union about interference in French live but President Macron Macron who of course his enemies early forties aspires to be the leader of Europe Anglo muckleshoot twenty five years older than him hasn't been well recently. She's twice while almost fainted in public appearances is standing down at the next election and she may not last much longer and it'd be a vacancy for the key player in Europe and macrumors to be that keyplayer he has a program he has a an idea of greater integration an almost federalization of Europe and he knows that written. If it were to stay in your opinion it will be completely opposed to that and so he wants personnel descriptors from your perspective from the perspective of other Conservative brexit tease you think the French could rescue rescue you by rejecting the the extension of the deadline yeah quite conceivable. They've changed their tune two or three times on this but then as recent word to come out of you've Paris last weekend was the British if granted a three-month extension would simply wasted. They've got no plan. There's negotiations getting on they haven't got a strategy to solve the problems that were in the deal that tourism April at Parliament in which was defeated three times because of its inadequacies and so the French are saying that foreign minister only real who spoke Sunday they're saying through him. We think the British had enough and we want to get them out so just say the French do due indeed reject this feel now that means that Britain will leave on October thirty one but still it just seems a fire that the only thing the British government is is doing at the moment and has been doing the lotteries is brexit. That's right. Actually it's an advertisement for what a wonderful thing that is not have government thing about the Belgium's about ten years ago and they didn't have government. That's right for about a year. I think we've we've we have passed laws in our country that I can remember. We've taken this different initiatives chiefs. We've just let people get on with this. Unemployment in Britain is about four and a half percent now. people frankly are unemployed in Britain. People whose health is cy battle junkies kids who just haven't called the brain power to get work. Everybody else go to job We've got very low inflation. We've got low interest rates. We're doing really well as a country economically and we are reasonably happy ship. It's really really brexit. It's appropriate. Maga Salmon Hefford the distinguished British columnist and historian. Let's turn to Boris Johnson. Someone you've known reasonably well over the last the best part of three decades in journalism now the Tory grassroots they love him. They voted for him to be their leader by warming the numbers you're leading conservative but you not like Boris Johnson. Why I Boris Johnson is a person. Who is you say I've known for years? A He is someone who has a very casual relationship with the truth he's known in the Labor Party. They put up tweets about him. Where they call Lavar Johnson I would get on Saturday but he certainly you finds the truth of difficult concept at times and I didn't think he's probity or the attention to detail all seriousness to be prime minister and the fact that he came into this office immediately cle- employed Mister Cummings as strategist and appeared to hand over the whole policy to him to do as immediately followed the as I say the scorched earth strategy suggest that Cummings Cummings his opponents rather than seeking to persuade the more reasonable him he just says because you're opposed to me you are clearly a worthless human being and I'm going. We're going to talk like Steve Bannon in the United States signed playbook but he's got more power than Steve Bounded had so this is this is very when Johnson was mayor of London. He had eight pitchy matters because he was notoriously idle. I'd had the attention to detail so he had to other people Lynton crosby officer Lynton of course was a former liberal rule and conservative party strategists seen all these well. Linson ran Boris Johnson's leadership election campaign and Boris Johnson wanted silence and when he collected his check which is a large one compact himself on the back of having a very successful job I didn't they with a Linson is still a a guiding Boris. There's been a word that he is but I presume has a general election and Boris Johnson has been trying to call on become get a majority sufficient in parliament eleven to approve that decision. Linda will be back in Blighty helping to run the election cabinet the many conservative voters and members of the Tory party the longtime readers of the Daily Telegraph often cruelly called the Tory graph they would read you and they might ask you does your hostility towards awards Boris out. Why your support for Brexit. No I really the thing I want most in life at the moment as an Englishman is for my country to be independent of European Union again I am hostile to Boris Johnson because I think he's very good record as a politician he was really second rate mayor of London where he wasted almost money the money and he was a truly bad foreign secretary he was a really I mean his officials at the Foreign Office absolutely detested him and he couldn't be trusted with any serious foreign policy. Theresa may continue to deal with the European policy with the policy towards America. He was allowed to go just places like darkest Africa unimportant to the Far East and shake hands there so he's he's not a capable politician. He hasn't got a grasp of detail and he's not serious and his response if you ask him a question he can't answer is to tell a joke. That's not good enough. I can't but he's defenders say he can unite the Party and in fairness opinion polls do show support for the conservative surging from twenty percent on the horizon May to thirty five percent under Boris add to that this is a point that phrase and Nelson the editor of the spectator. Mike's at two that the twelve percent support for the Briggs potty and you've got basically half the nation backing either Boris or Nausea Farraj saw even if the polls were to be tomorrow's election results you'd end up more or less with a fifty the strong majority for the Conservatives many people would say that's the best conservative results since Margaret Thatcher's third election victory in ninety seven well. There's a crucial assumption in which is an assumption rather than the facts in Fraser Nelson has jumped the gun on this and that this depends on there being a coalition between the Brexit Party and the Conservative Party is no oh such coalition at this stage at this stage but Nigel Farrell said the other day when Johnson went to see a variety of the Irish prime minister that he would regard leaving the European European Union without the deals offended of statecraft the minute that far out her that he said he's not serious about leaving without a deal therefore we can't do a deal with him. Okay Okay but just as soon there is a deal between Boris and Nargile Farraj between the Conservatives and the Brexit party this doing pretty good position because more than four hundred parliamentary entry states voted late in two thousand sixteen correct which is a lot more levers. That's true you must forget that there is a tribal determination of Labor Party vote. It is to fight for Labor Party even if it doesn't properly stand for Brexit so although Farrell she's very good at persuading working class former Labor voters to join the Brexit bandwagon had wagon we call it assume that they will also it's quite the puzzle says show a massive resurgence and support for the Liberal Democrats who are any two points behind the Labour party who basically written off when Cameron majority in two Thousand Fifteen yes and in twenty seven. I think they only had about twelve. MP's seventeen they WANNA by-election and they've had defections actions to them and I would confidently predict the Liberal Democrats win a lot of seats remain a tourism probably third of ill Tory party remains will vote for awesome in large quantities a lot of right wing. Labor people will them and quantities and the other problem that Johnson has got is it. He's loses his seats in Scotland because he's alienated. The Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson who retired at the age of about thirty eight last week saying that she'd had enough well. How vulnerable is Boris. I mean he has a majority in the Commons and I think you've argued elsewhere that he's hauled on his own. Marginal seat Ish Shakira era is what a majority of five thousand outs bridge which is a very mixed seat demographically in the West of London too high immigrant population many of whom are working working class middle class and not necessarily natural Conservative Party supporters of the Labor Party already flooding activists since oxbridge to to canvas and to try to defeat him so he could struggle to hold his seat but I think more than that the some of the things that he's Don John have really aggrieved people who supported him the early prorogation people thought the Queen in an embarrassing position the he's called call six votes on things such as calling a general election twice and other questions. He's lost all six of them. I don't see necessarily he's certain either to win the election far from it or even to hold his own seed. Well I mean this is a moving story and we clearly are in uncharted waters a back. Is it possible that brexit might not even happen. I've got about obviously if it doesn't happen it will be because he is. GonNa ask for an extension on what is being granted in those seconds as I say he's finished. He's in Party will turn on him. They that's not what they put him in there to do. Also it means that we will talk Frenchman so if we stay in until the study FESTA January. There's got to be some rapid footwork to get a deal together with the probably will be no extension after that. If we get a general election at a new party come in a policy of government then they might well call a second referendum the Labor Party at talking about doing that but the Labor Party is as divided if not more divided than the Conservative Party so we concentrate towards the party of government is a moment but Corbyn's is Labor Party isn't a real mess and they're far from shore to call the second referendum so we woke feticide the most lineup parliamentarians are reminders but a pretty significant segment of live party voters particularly in the north are brexit teeth. That's absolutely true. Yes apps and it's not just in the north. Actually I mean that's related. Halt outlined is about the demographic seems to show that there's a there's a substantial chunk of labor versus right across the country who share the view of a majority of people in Britain that we've had enough of European given all those divisions in the live a party. You remain confident that Jeremy Corbyn won't be number ten. I do. I think pitch it's going to be very harmful to conservative former majority government next time after the election and if the Labor Party do badly a large number of their employees who returned may decide to try to get rid of Corbin by some means or other and take part in some sort of coalition government that would include the Scottish. It's National Party the Liberal Democrats and maybe some disaffected Tories but at the moment I think I would put money on US leaving on the thirty first of October a report Monday those on us having to general elections in the next six months nine seven four yeah so great to have you in the studio on between the lines thank Puteaux that was salmon hevea calm with the daily and Sunday Telegraph. He's new book is called staring at God. It's about Britain and the Great War. It's out now now and we'll put a link to that on our website on Iran. This is between the lines with Tom Switzer but we're Robert Mugabe came to power about four decades ago. Zimbabwe was one of Africa's most prosperous nations. They was a strong economy excellent infrastructure stable institutions and independent judiciary and an excellent school system. No wonder the world held high hopes APPs for what was once known as regime but Mugabe destroyed all of this in a course of his thirty eight year rule from nine eighty two light 2017 think of the rampant corruption and economic disasters not to mention the murder of thousands of political opponents and civilians at the same time mcgabe made himself rich and he's tawny circle of cronies and relatives spectacularly rich that brutal dictatorship died last week at age ninety five now he more about Mugabe's legacy. Let's let's welcome back to the show. David Coltart he's Imbaba human rights lawyer and former cabinet minister and you'll solve the struggle continues fifty years. He's of tyranny in Zimbabwe David. We're going back to Iran. Thanks Tom Good to be with you now. You knew Mugabe. I've known Mugabe for a long long time. We've had aquatic chicken history. It goes rockaway back to nine hundred ninety one soon after independence. When I was a student leader in South Africa I was threatened with deportation by the participation Operation Mugabe heard about it and send me a personal telegram coating Roosevelt saying that in coming back to the Museum Bob we I had nothing to fear but fear itself so we go to two very good stocks and we're not Tang back his young lawyer. I thought that he was the bee's knees and but I got drawn into the vortex of the genocide which occurred in the southwest of the country in nineteen ninety-three ended up representing opposition political leaders and activists and I realized that there was another side to this man and that led me into conflict with him to such an extent by the nineteen ninety s he went on public television and say that I was an enemy of the state and that that persuaded by the two thousands is survive full assassination of teams and then things in a funny way came full circle because in two thousand and one I was brought in to the inclusive government into cabinets as minister of Education and you can imagine how tense suit was Tom when I was sworn in his essay sworn at by mcabe at the swearing in ceremony. He was very tense. He didn't want me as his minister of Education and as so we were forced into the working situation but funnily enough after a five years working in this inclusive government we established a functional working relationship we still disagreed on a wide variety variety of policy matters but when it came to education I found strangely that he was someone who had a passion for education and and was prepared to back me and enabled me to get a lot of things done so he was a complex man. There's no doubt he was a tyrant is no doubt that he has this alert of blood on his hand but you you have to put demand in context the context of redeem the context of our conform of apartheid and so when one county binary about this the two sides to the man is no dot he's. GonNa he had a very dockside. It was his dominant side but it was also positive to say you say you were the enemy of the state and and there were four assassination attempts on your life but tell us about taunt that Mugabe reached out to you after your daughter was mauled by a lion well that happened when I was minister education my daughter and at my family where the gamecocks she had this terrible accident. She's fine now fortunately but was severely mauled by by this. Lyonnaise was hospitalized and Mugabe in cabinet came up to me in and said how is huge has she got the best doctors use anything that we can do and I must admit I was completely taken aback by it and he continue to inquire off to her until she fully recovered so it does reinforced us this notion that he he was not a hit. You cannot say he was a Hitler. He was responsible for crimes against since two manatee. He was responsible possibly for genocide but there was another side to him. Yeah he became a champion of anti colonialism realism on the lift and he was even naught had by bridge and I think in the Minani's David but let's also remember he from the outset trod to consolidate power eradicate all opposition to his political party there of course he cities thugs on the what farmers in the Light Nani Nani about twenty years ago go and you mentioned the genocide. I think something like twenty thousand people were killed over five years in a genocide and at the time the Thatcher government the Australian government averted their guys while this was taking place because I invested too much in Mugabe Ron well absolutely but it wasn't just investing Mugabe lobby it was also the height of the Cold War. They were very concerned about Soviet influence in southern Africa and the Soviets. It's backed Mugabe's opponent Joshua Nkomo the Chinese back Mugabe and so that was one of the reasons that I voted the gates the absentee absolutely writes Mugabe right from the very beginning from the get-go in one thousand nine hundred was determined to impose a one party state on Zimbabweans options and he was determined to use any means to do seven so he systematically crushed joe showing Komo's OPCO party starting around nineteen ninety-two and human rights organizations as you say is about twenty thousand people were murdered during that period. My guess is dive. I have a call todd. He's an Education Minister Zimbabwe's coalition government from two thousand nine to thirteen. He's the author of the Struggle Continues Fifty Years of tyranny in Zimbabwe wait Mugabe Ville victim of a coup diving and his successor. MSN MANGO WANNA with Mugabe's death and he's bloody success is still in power. Is there any prospect of Liberal Democratic Zimbabwe and not in the short term. Tom One point time us make about Mugabe is that he was part of the system system when the coup could a lot of people in two thousand seventeen celebrated the day off to the coup. I wrote an article in which I sit optimism. Awesome was misplaced. I had always seen Mugabe's part of the problem. Not The problem self. He was part of this system to the essence of the problem in nation is that Paris is ultimately controlled by the military and the military elite and Mugabe had in many ways towards the end of his time in office become simply a porn four the military and so to that extent although he's died now the the system hasn't died actual affected in some respects the system is stronger than ever under Emmerson Mnangagwa and this Coterie of military electra leaders so unfortunately in the short term the prospects for Zimbabwe are dia couldn't mcgabe successes. Could I finish SHEA OR FRANCO PSI chalet or Franco and spine and restore order in God that country back to democracies that can save -able well that is what I hope up twin Mnangagwa's I came in. I hope that he'd had some sort of domes- king experience but he's not being in power for us to yes. He's consolidating. Lighting is power and in fact he's done. Some things not even mcgabe. Mugabe never shocked people in the streets of Harare in broad daylight. Mugabe Mugabe has shopped the intimate down and Mugabe the one thing about Mugabe. You got what you saw. There was very little guile in mcgabe. He was bile you sort with his successor as says one thing does another his success of his sheep sheep's clothing that whereas scoff if you literally wearing the scarf that trump trae himself as a cuddly leader whereas in fact. I think in many respects he's worse the Mugabe worse than Mugabe will then how should western governments respond to Mugabe successor we need to be held to Ernst ended ended the one positive legacy Mugabe's that he held the inclusive government rights and agree on a new constitution Zimbabwe which was was agreed to in two thousand and thirteen and that's what the new leader needs to be held to. We don't need any waste an agenda. We don't even need an African Hidden Agenda One African Standard that we must be held to count two. We have a good constitution agreed to in a referendum when ninety five percents of people who voted in the country voted in favor of this constitution came out of the process of dialogue and consultation it represents Zaentz the national benchmark and what Australia what the Commonwealth of Britain what America should do is hold Mr Mnangagwa's to that constitution institution the more in the breach cresent but that's what should guide the relationship between Australian Zimbabwe going forward if Mnangagwa's complies laws with the constitution game support if he continues to grow reach at every turn as he is doing prison then he should be given the cold old shoulder well. Let's hope this is the moment that sets Imbaba. We pack on course towards freedom and prosperity divers. You've played an instrumental role in the freedom fighting 'cause in Zimbabwe all the best to you and and this Nick Steijn Zimbabwe's future always glad to have you on the program thank you Tom. Thanks for your continued interest. David Coulthard is author of the struggle struggle continues fifty years of tyranny in Zimbabwe. Well that's the shy for between the lines this week and if you'd block to heed this or any other episode again you can go to waive sought. ABC Dot net dot edu slash Aaron and follow the prompts to between the lines all you can do it the easy way by downloading the IBC listen up and subscribing to between the lines. You can also download the program wherever else you get your podcast. I'm Tom Switzer hy-vee continuing again next week.

Robert Mugabe Senator Johnson Labor Party Brexit Conservative Party European Union Zimbabwe Britain Tom Switzer prime minister Boris Tom London Sunday Telegraph France Mugabe Ville Liberal Democrats Parliament
Boris vs Hunt gets personal, plus the fiscal and immigration plans of the next PM

FT Politics

37:17 min | 1 year ago

Boris vs Hunt gets personal, plus the fiscal and immigration plans of the next PM

"Capital. One is building a better Bank. One that feels nothing like a typical Bank. It's why they've reimagined banking and built something completely different Capital One. Cafes they offer checking accounts with no fees, or minimums and savings accounts with one of the best savings rates in America. This is banking reimagined with your needs in mind. Open an account today at any Capital, One location or online in five minutes, and experienced banking. Reimagined for yourself Capital One. What's in your wallet Capital, One NA member? FDIC. Welcome to politics, a Wiki discussion on what's happening in Westminster from the financial times. I'm Sebastian pain in this episode. We'll be discussing the latest round of skirmishes between Boris Johnson and Jeremy hunt and the general state of the Tory leadership contest. Plus, we'll be into the economic immigration policies of both candidates. I'm slide to be joined by our political editor, George Parker columnist, Robert shrimps, the economics, Aetate Chris Charles and deputy opinion, editor hundred green. Thank you, all for joining, if you find yourself liking this episode of FT politics than do subscribe through all the usual channels to receive it, every Saturday morning, the conservative party's leadership contest rumbled on this week and things became even more personal Jeremy hunt starts take big chunks out of Boris Johnson describing the fun as a coward for ducking a head to head TV debate on sky, while Johnson toughened up his language on leaving the EU on October thirty first come, what may do or die. But really the nothing. Has changed in the dynamics of the race with the lace PO the party's grassroots, so's, that both has more than double, the support of his rival George Parker now as sort of three weeks to go until the new prime minister is decided and Ozzy poised on had a big wobble. Last weekend in his campaign resulting from this at leaked recording of avow between him and his partner carry Simmons, and that really started the week with Boza uncertain footing. We saw big shakeup of his campaign team. And a media blitz from the fun run of sort of put him back to where he was this time last week. I think yes, I once the first hustings in Birmingham last Saturday. And it was the day after the story broke his domestic Rowan. He looked like a sort of shrunk configure as arrived at the international convention sense and avoiding the media in a very defensive posture. But you felt the jury in the week has confidence as returns and we were just observing before we came on air, that he looks bit more confidence in his most recent hustings down in Exeter, and you. You feel that he's gone through the fire pit Boris Johnson that he survived the interrogation of his private life. He's alighted on a position on Brexit hardline positional Brexit. Do or dies. You say on Brexit which he feels comfortable defending and the end of this week, you know, two thirds of party members appear still to be Buckingham. So he's, he's a pretty good position at this stage. I'd say and you say that there's three weeks ago until the leaders chosen. That's correct. But of course, the ballot papers go out in about a week's time party members will pretty thin and those ballot papers almost as soon as they received them. So we've got about ten days, I would say for Jeremy hunter, turn the tables, and Boris Johnston, somehow make an inroad into his apparently on saying, we'll lead. And that's going to be a big challenge for Mr. hunt that we saw from the latest con home poll, I mentioned earlier in the boys about sixty six percent of toyed grassroots member say that he's their favorite choice. Jeremy hunt is now up to thirty percent but he still got how could he even begin to try and turn on that kind of eat, unless this poll is entirely von? And in fact, Germany, hunts a lot more popular than people think with the grassroots members. Well, I don't think he is. I mean, Jeremy hunt's problem is a, he's a remain. I'm be his position on. Brexit is almost as incredible Spurs Johnson's for shutting is pretty incredible. The idea that you just keep on talking with no apparent way out of this morass and the party membership of clocks, and I think we were saying on the post last week, really the only thing that can stop Boris Johnson extraneous FOX's things that we haven't thought of, and indeed last time we were speaking, it was just before the carry Simon's row broke. So it's going to be something really big to not Boris Johnson. Of course, the Jeremy Johnson his own can do is it green? Do you think this anything towards his idea that Boris is ducking about now of the his campaign of decided they want to limit blue on blue attacks? And you notice when you've seen at the hustings or in his interviews, he a rally talks about Jeremy Honda. And only when asked direct the always says, I've a lot of respect for Jeremy. He's a great guy. I never really attacks him in a way, whereas hunt on the other hand has really gone verbose on this issue that he's ducking TV debates was meant to be a head to head. Debate on sky on Tuesday, boy, said he wasn't going to do it. And instead, jomie hunts sat and did some quite amusing tweets actually did Acuna with them, the good, people on social media. So they're huge dangers for a party when you're going through a leadership contest. I'm one of them is, as we've said round this table, the your front runner who in this case, we think will eventually become your leader ends up damaged by the contest. So that is a real danger. An I mean, I've been quite surprised in the last few days, Stu how much hunt personally and his camp have gone off to Johnson with these accusations of cowed nece and also untrustworthiness, that's quite a character is quite heavy accusation, to, you know, t to level the post news, probably going to be prime minister within weeks. So they're already into blue on blue. Right. Even if the poorest Johnson camper trying to avoid it, but I think it is quite sensible to have in the back of their mind. I mean when we had that awful BBC debate with the full of can. Candidates that turned into sort of our talking over each other and shouting. And not remembering the name of, of people who are asking him questions, etc. You know, somebody said to me, what's the opposite of a party political broadcast? You know, it's like anti advertising. So you do need to sort of bear in mind, that although in the next three weeks, the most important people in Britain, all the hundred sixty thousand members of the conservative party actually at some point. And at some point possibly not too far down the line. This person is going to have to face the voters. So you really don't want the thing that's lingering in their head to be the accusations that you've leveled at each other. It's poor form not to debates is really, really poor form. And it's quite an established principle now that people should do them, but it's not the Bill and Endel on, I think they're reasons for docking. It probably good ones Robertson is if we look back to last weekend, when Boris was doing very little media done. Not that many media interviews a tour and then after the row became public and as George said he had to do. I Haas things which I think it was fifteen times, also Mckee was asked, and then on Monday they started this media blitz. He didn't interview with Nick and LBC when he was twenty six times about the row and still didn't answer it. And then he gave this talk radio interview, where fairplay to journalists wolves Chem suited, who basically put words into his mouth, which was do we leave on the thirty first come? What may do or die which polish respondent come, what may do-or-die so that is now most own around his neck now, obviously will face him with the conservative party's membership. But when we come start inevitable exit crumbs, point, we've all talked about so many times, those words are going to hold him. How can he possibly vehicle out of a commitment that firm it will just you watch him? I think look, I don't think that the phrase do, although it was very, very pithy was a significant advance on his position over the last few weeks, he said, we've got to get out October thirty first, and he hasn't really wave from that. So although do-or-die has read my lips ish. Quality to it. It is fundamentally his position. And I think the onus is if you look. Bush from his engaging. It is a mammoth bluff, exercise with the European Union. He believes and he's been writing this for quite a long time. He believes that is a failure to suggest we're serious, but leaving without the deal as prevented the European Union from offering better terms than Theresa May manage to get on. This is a plausible argument a lot of them bite. But there's a logic to it, and I think his view is you have to sound what you mean it you have to look like you mean it, you have to plan like human it and hope that they blink. So it's the only strategy that he could possibly pursue what he can't go comes looking at probably won't leave with no deal. But, you know look, if we have to cave in let threes and made it, that's not gonna work. So he has to do this, and I think one of the fastest Boris Johnson that we won't come to understand is that he's not somebody who plans super long-term apart from the bit about wanting to be prime minister, he not someone who thinks about all of the detail the seven steps down the road. He thinks about the next step, and then he'll worry about the step off to that, when he's taken this step. So the truth is step. One is get to Downing Street step to worry about the rest of it off towards and I don't think he'll be. Bullet about any hostage fortune. He has given barring cat strolls, and then he'll be two bullet about this. If it gets him to number ten, and then he'll figure it out offers an if he has to say, look, you know, I had to sound tough to get a good deal. That's what do, I think, that's really interesting. Also from the point of view of what people project onto Boris when they're looking at him and thinking, whether they'll vote for him or not. There was a very interesting sort of mini BBC focus group on this in which actually his very unpredictability and the fact that they assumed that they couldn't really believe his promises was actually seen as a negotiating strength when up against the EU, you know, it was this kind of madman theory as adopted, you know, from the Putin camper now applied to Trump, which is if you behave in really peculiar manner. You might wrongfoot your negotiating opposite numbers, which actually those who trying to choose between hunt and Boris in this conservative, Egypt contests over. They saw hunters more trustworthy. They saw Boris his very unpredictability and the likelihood he would go back on commitments. As a strength. But George when you look what boys is kind of talked about this week as was. He has to put some policies out. I wanna talk later about who maybe choice chance to what's going on that, but there is a bit more thought than maybe what was suggesting in terms of what he's actually thinking about that. There is some policy work in the Johnson county. They've talked about how to save high streets. They've talked about some immigration, things, very rare. You bit more than I've been suggesting that as outrageous, he's piloting, they just pushing out policies to appeal to the hundred and sixty thousand conservative party members is shows a certain contempt. I think for the party members that these are the policies pushing because this one was he's devising poses to appeal to into the terrace end of the Southampton game. This, this isn't veal thought process. I think I'm gonna climb. I think I'm inclined to agree on certain agree with broker that Jones is whole stretchy is will cross that bridge when we come to it that far ahead. But yes, I mean the policies he's putting out their intentions across the next bridge, which is getting into number ten. I mean, just look at the policy on tax cuts, full higher Ennis policy, which then retreated from very quickly. We've got a new policy on cutting stumped GT, which is already retreating. I think the whole load of policies that are being put out there, which haven't been costed properly, which I suspect, he's going to retreat from, however, you can start see the shape of what abortion Johnson premiership would be about. And it's encapsulated by the slogan of Fullbrook, who's the stress just brought in to run the second part of the camp Johnson campaign, which is deliver Brexit unite the party and then defeats Jeremy Corbyn DVD or dot for short. That's the stretchy. And so the first step is to deliver Brexit, which I think, is going to be incredibly difficult hangs over the whole Johnston projects, and you may not never get beyond that point, of course. But if he does the policies he starting to articulate give you a flavor what he'd doing essentially. Did he do? Is he take the policies that worked for him in, in city hall is London mare? So, whether it's investing in cheap transport or housing or socially progressive policies like the London living wage that he promoted it'd be those kinds of policies, and you'll start to see that. And I think actually Boris Johnson genuine, the believes in that he wants to be likes he, he is chips of centrist politician apart from apart from on Brexit. The problem that Boris Johnson's got his. He's got to get over the Brexit hump first of all, which is part of the robot says while he can retract on this Trump was he's, he's sworn in blood to a sizable part of his party. European research group, the hardline eurosceptics that we will be out in the first box Hct as I said, before, we are not going to be out on the thirty first of all Tober, and they'll be a reckoning for him. And it's only a few months away. You've just mentioned beef there. George, Mark full book and the other thing we saw this week for Johnson was bit of a shake of his campaign team, which up in Duncan Smith. The former conservative party leader had been brought into Chad the campaign and multiple book, who I think was best known for running Zach goats Smith's problematic. Mayor campaign in twenty sixteen has been bought. Run things day today. Now the Johnson campaigns. And there was always going to be this transition from the first phase, the campaign sliver, the parliamentary stage and the second stage to win the grassroots membership. And yes, I guess the kind of guy grassroots members do like, but it is a sign that they read is something how to change the way they might actually be in a bit of trouble. Well, you're right. It's been a very bumpy transition from the first phase. Of course. Johnson campaign Westminster in the second phase, the first place was brilliantly executed with the help of people like James Watson, a former MP around his private office govern Williamson, the former chief whip I mean they delivered exactly what they said they were going to do. They got him half the parliamentary party got him into the second round out of Westminster into the country. The problem started obviously with the row that should the newspapers now. Not full burqas come in. He's a business partner of Lynton Crosby who's a close friend, of course Jon around his Merrill, campaigns successfully. But they've had a terrible run recently in British elections they've sought the Australian ones but they advise Boris Johnson in two thousand sixteen and his abortive leadership campaign. They advise the conservative party in. Disastrous two thousand seventeen campaign where they tried to build a personality cult around a leader, you hadn't any personality. And as you mentioned, they run that goldsmiths a polling campaigns balloons and mayor in two thousand sixteen where they basically round the dock was so racist campaign in a multicultural, tolerant, Sissy. It was obviously despicable. And so they brought this guy in their attentions. In the Johnson camp between the people around the first phase and not phobic is now running the second phase and I'm told it was marked Fullbrook first decision as the campaign chief executive to bring in, in Duncan Smith as the chairman, which in itself, was a fairly controversial thing with some of the people who've been with both Johnson away through Moore under, let's flip back to policy for moment. And I think, you know, jomie Honda's also put out some policy proposals this week, particularly on corporation tax spending a lot of money on defense and also want about juden tuition fees for entrepeneurship. And if we don't think both Johnson's policies are particularly thrown good. You couldn't say much for Jeremy Hans either. That's right. And I think sort of going back to this question of whether the whole thing is a good look for the Tory party. I'm really not. Not sure that these policy pledges are doing them any favors. I mean, we were thinking about, you know how full through the Johnson camps policy proposals are on. I would have said, you know, they're throwing them out left, right. And center by not really just the right and similarly with Jeremy hunt. You know, his idea for, you know, having a tuition fees amnesty for entrepreneurs. I mean if you look at the social background of entrepreneurs in the UK, this is the most privileged echelon of young people. It's completely bonkers. It's literally giving money to people who don't need it. And it kind of been thought for, for more than about a minute, before they came up with it simply I was interested on the defense spending thing. Because when you combine that with some of the tax cuts, you opening up a huge question, IVA fiscal responsibility. And you kind of one that also how much Tory voters have changed into whether they really want to hear that message on things like defense spending, which, you know, clearly goes down well in these hustings, but will it sort of carry forward into this mythical land beyond Brexit, which both candidates is so key? Into talk about in which we will never ever get to. Yeah. I mean, it reminded me that if you remember the scene in this one of the last series of the thick of it where the slightly new age, Tori campaign chief invite slow to people to sit in a circle a circle of positivity, and as they throw a ball to each other each one has to come up with an idea and everyone goes, yes. And that's what some of these policy ideas have reminded me of that. No one's that she sat and thought, well, if we do that there's a problem here we all come back on, with Georgia's point about Boris Johnson seeing himself since she has a much more one nation centrist figure. And I think it's true that he does see himself in that way. But I think the hook that he's got himself onto and the full Duncan Smith thing point is because of bricks he is surrounding himself with people who don't actually see themselves in that way, as we understand it, and who has times, get tough, and they can't do anything but get tough again to drag him towards positions, which are not the liberal, centrist position of the conservative party, because things are getting difficult. You're going to need to double down on the people who will ready simple, you, and that pushes you towards more populous positions. I don't think it's the Boris Johnson necessarily wants to be that person. I think the problem for him is he's going to be dragged in that direction by political necessity. And if we go back to the earliest age, the leadership contest, the purse through a couple of cannons to assert to the right of Boris Johnson, notably Dominic Robb, and was a lot of chatter in Westminster. The Dominic Robb was taken out of the contest by Bush Johnson's campaign, some back room maneuvers that inside that contest. And you know, we'll see what his cabinet looks like. But it's very likely that bosses cabinet will be much more to the vite because of that then Theresa May's. Well, I mean one of the more interesting, I think deliverable pledges that Boris Johnson made this week was to say that he will not have anyone in his cabinet who is not prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit. So that means no Murad. No David Gordon, Greg plot overseen Philip Hammond. I'm not sure I'm Rory Stewart. So already this cabin is of a different hue to the one, the a grand UniteR might go for. And I think that surveying point as well, but because you can see already emerging cabal on the conservative benches of the people who. Who've stopped no deal. Not may well, include to easily may Philip hummed, all the key people who are running the government at the moment, and we also saw George that Margot James, who's the digital ministers. She came out and set this week, I have more in common with Jo swinson. I do with Johnson again ruled out doing no deal. So it's all look incredibly difficult for putting on. He's going to come into office, his majority is probably gonna go down to three and is already enough conservatives who will say they will try and stop. No DO. But we still don't know actually if they would go for the confidence vote, which really, I guess is the killer way to try and stop no deal to bring down the government. Yes. And when it comes to the point where the rubber hits the road on the no deal exit and parliament votes on it. There's a lot of talk. Now, not just of conservative MP's voting to stop it happening. But when they do that, because obviously, they face de-selection by that local conservative parties, there would be a mass, defection from the Tory party. You mentioned mongo James to the Liberal Democrats, and one thing, we haven't mentioned is there's a pilot coming up quite seen in Brecon, and Radnor famous Brechin and Rodney by. And all, you know you throw it around. Fawzi young Liberal Democrats won. It was the ninety s they might actually those the issues. I think. I think it might not have even been the old liberal party that one actually put sensitives anyway. I, I wouldn't be too spicy, Liberal Democrats win, not by action at the end of July and that will give them additional impetus going in what will be a very difficult. Awesome. And won't be very long before Boris Johnson. Isn't that no deal confrontation with parliament? Because the demands, he's making on the EU for the renegotiation of frankly, not going to be deliverable just look at what he wants to rip up a withdrawal agreement that they spent two years, because she wants to take out the backstop is threatening not pay the money and in exchange for that he wants a quick trade deal done during an implementation periods which won't happen, because we sign the withdrawal agreement. So the confrontations coming in the day of reckoning is impending. I mean the one thing I think the person could do. I'm I'm slice surprise. He hasn't done so far is make an obvious appeal Fini by telling positions associations to lay off the Tories. They're trying to de-select the David gawks Dominic grease. I think you'll be very clever move of him and might just play him the bits of goodwill. He needs to say, I'm fed up with reading, but will these selections. I want my party to have room for all opinions, and I want you all to lay off these people. I think it would do him a lot of good in the party. He did it. One topic that both candidates have dived into this week is public spending and immigration on the boys Johnson side though. Increasing reports that Sanjay Javid is being lined up to be his chancellor, along with big pledges on public spending increases and boosting infrastructure around the country and trying to mitigate the effects of a no deal Brexit. The footman also plummeted interest and are strange style points based system to give the UK more control over its migration. But would it introduced numbers on one is behind this policy Smyrna glean, if we just begin with the immigration question here and Bush Johnson has, you know, he was the man behind the vote, leave campaign talked about control of borders, taking back control and back in two thousand sixteen. He talked about this Australian style points, based system, which has developed a ring around it, but I'm not entirely sure. People in Westminster fully understand wall today is what it means. I would even actually reduce my Gration from it's coming levels. This is a completely. Fascinating topic, because, you know, we've been told consistently that when Boris becomes prime minister he will govern in the same way that he governed as mayor of London, which was as I liberal one nation Tory. And as mayor of London, he had a very pro immigration stance, because, of course, you know, London is a kind of magnet globally for people coming here to make a better life on the other hand, as you say when he was on leave platform in two thousand sixteen he started talking about this Australian points based system of immigration, which was sold as a way to control it, but also to do so in what sounded like a fair way. So you've got objective criteria this originally surfaced in British politics, as a sort of policy objective, actually under the infamous campaign when Michael Howard was the conservative party leader also advised by Lynton Crosby who is, of course, Australian, and you remember that Michael held campaign, one of these, the posters said, are you thinking what we're thinking? I are you also against immigrants. So the background of you. Using this policy to signal things to voters is really quite interesting and relatively dark, I would argue because it can sound fair. We have objected criteria. But it can also sound as if we were dominating the immigration policy over country, which is white. And so it sort of seen as quite crafty way, I would say of disguising, the fact that you may not actually have settled on an immigration policy, but your learning from around the world, the interesting thing about high works in Australia is, of course, it is, it's a way of tempting a large number of immigrants into the country because you need their skills, and actually we had Joe McDermott, and who was an adviser to Julia Gillard in Australia. But also has worked if the labor party expanding the few translate, the UK you'd be talking about five hundred thousand people, a year, probably coming to the UK under such a system. So it's actually a liberal system, which conveniently during a campaign. Sounds tough to Chris Charles, this comes back to one of the fundamental contradictions. You look back at the two thousand sixteen referendum campaign, which is. People like Boris Johnson. Oppo? 'immigration. That's what they say. Yeah. I remember him standing up and giving one speech and say, I'm all for immigration. I'm poem magante? I just won't control here. But they won the Brexit referendum off the back of views of people who are not so pull immigration at all, and has just very eloquently explained this policy is designed to actually speak. Those people think it sounds like more control than reality. Isn't a not does sort of suggest that will be a clash at some point in the future, when if this policy came in, and it ended up actually increasing net migration may be it would produce more high skilled migration, which is what bothers Johnson keeps talking about. But those people who backed him and backed up referendum for the vote are not going to be particularly happy those clearly class because there's a lot of people in this country who don't want immigration, particularly immigration of people of a different race to UK white people. They see as UK people now but where disagree with Miranda slightly is the stadium style points based system, isn't actually policy because he have a number. Only because you have to say what the cutoff level is. So it might be a very liberal policy. It could be an extremely tight policies. Well, depending on what you say is the qualifying points. And also, whether you say you need to have a job as we currently do in this country before you can have access to the country of as an immigrant, or whether you say you don't which is sort of essentially a stadium policy again liberal, but you can have lots of different ways of looking at it. And so what is this wonderful sort of slogan, which is entirely meaningless until we know exactly what you get points, full because our immigration system now gives you credits for certain things for how skilled you all. And also where we think demand is in this country for jobs where which we can't supply ourselves. So the whole thing is completely ill defined and will cause a problem because you can't satisfy everyone, you can't satisfy the liberal parts of the conservative party, or other liberal parts of Britain, and the extreme. Family conservative parts Britain consumptive with a small see not wanting any change at the same time. I'm Boris's trying to ride two horses at once and at some point he's going to fall off. Imagine that the other thing about it is it doesn't solve the low skilled workers issue, which actually post Brexit for some, British industries, not least agriculture, caring social care. You actually need what are classified as unskilled low skilled workers, as well who under these proposals as they seem to stunned would not be allowed in. So that actually won't work just on on Chris's point the point about that five hundred thousand projectionist, thus based on, if we applied it in the way, the Australia has applied it where in fact that involves kind of one person being Okay'd to arrive every three minutes, which is just as about as frequent as a Tory spending pledge is being thrown out in this campaign agree. What Chris around just saying there about the vagueness of what Boris Johnson said, but I do think there will be a step change. Whoever becomes prime minister on immigration in a more liberal. Action wants to resume stops being prime minister, I don't use any doubts about that. The tens of thousands target is going to be dropped by Jeremy hunters. All that's the only thing he's really said about migration, he said that will go, such Javid, who we've been talking about the future chancellor, currently, the home secretary has already made it clear much more liberal approach to students coming here, allowing them to stay off. They complete their degree courses for at least two years. So, you know, if you think back to the discussions that were being hot around the cabinet table. When David Cameron was prime minister and subsequent trees, make became promise. It was obviously the trees are may was the person really holding the line on the tens of thousands target. Everybody else around the cabinet table. This is absolutely insane that we're turning away the on the brightest people that come into this country. The other factor, I would say, is that because of the Brexit vote happening. I suspect largely immigration has fallen as a salient issue in terms of the political priorities of the British people that may be because I think, because Brexit is going to happen. We will take control of our borders. It's less to worry about the certainly people are less concerned. About it now. So it's a more permissive attitude to make a more so economically sensible policy after Theresa May's gone. So Chris jaws is very nice segue into the next thing, which is the chancellor, and is obviously a key job in any government. But in the Johnson, government is going to be particularly crucial because a voice has made an awful lot of spending pledge throughout this campaign, that vici every day, there's a press release promising billions being spent on some area of public services. It's also go into matter with regards to Brexit as well, because one thing that Bose is talked about quite a lot on the campaign trail is that there was enough money put into planning for a no deal outcome to try and mitigate the impact to that, I won't we've appointed this week another papers as well as the Sajjan Javid. The home secretary is the foot run a candidate and is pretty much a dead. Cert this point to be asked to move over from the home office to the treasury, but he's an interesting choice because by temperament, here's a Thatcherite, who would want to cut taxes and keep public spending, low it. He's going to go into the treasury by then turn opened the spending taps. Yes, the you've put your finger on exactly the difficulty over the tension, that there will be not in the treasury, but among in the cabinet about spending. There is both a desire to cut taxes and keep spending low and go back to the eighties and also a desire to really make spending really happen. And I think the phrase from Boris his team this week has been to go gangbusters on the economy. And I really do Donald Trump, which means it does care about the deficit ATL spend more tax less and, and hope to get growth. Really powering ahead of what might be a difficult Brexit. It's going to be very, very difficult for them to get the economy growing extremely quickly ahead of Tober. If that is the, if the desire because they will come in, in July. The talk is of a budget, an emergency budget in September very hard to do anything much quicker than that because you've actually got to do some math. That's and work at what you actually want to do, and let the OB are actually work at how much it's going to cost an all these sorts of well boring procedural things, but it takes about six weeks, at least at about the quickest, so you're talking very early September is about the earliest, you could do it also, that's when you people back from parliament and the recess is over. So that is the time if you were going to do an emergency budget, you would do it. You're not gonna get any of these measures in bio table thirty. I literally none the best you could do while I was thirty, I would be to cut VAT, and that is one of the few spending ledges, we haven't heard yet. I'm sure that'll be coming down the track soon Melinda. I'm sure a lot of very dry, traditional toys people like Philip Hammond. The current chancellor biopsy despairing it this talk. And it's to be fair. It's not just from the boss Johnson campaign, Jeremy hunt, his pledging a lot of spending as well. And of course, you know, he'll have been thinking, well, I wish I could have done this, but he has been a deficit hawk. And if you think back to how much the conservatives talk. Talked about data and deficit in twenty ten the coalition years in twenty fifteen this, this sort of, now, knowledgeable that in fact, we just don't care anymore. We've just got to spend and they want to say authorities over, even though I think we've heard that about five times from different people. Well, that's right. And it's not just the spending pledges from the hunt camp as well. Of course, he wants to slash corporation tax. So there's a sort of double whammy on the fiscal rectitude is really interesting this, because it goes back in a way to what George was saying on the immigration policy, is the degree to which you can actually have a fresh start, and I would absolutely agree with George on immigration. Specifically there is an opportunity to kind of, you know, correct. What wasn't overly harsh regime on tax and spend? You know, you still got those constraints that your predecessors had essentially, however much you pretend you don't have them during a campaigning period like this current four weeks for the Tory leadership. And I think, you know, we, we will remember when the coalition came in and David Lewis found button note from his predecessor in the treasury. You know, a little note saying. Has no money left. You know. Live now he'd never lived down, never forgave. David Lewis releasing it either. But, you know, this is the thing you can go in with all sorts of thoughts by you're going to reinvent the landscape, but you do actually face the same constraints. It is going to be very interesting watching such in that position at the treasury, if, if he gets it because his Chris's said, you know, his whole political philosophy is such right? But we're now facing a moment when the conservative party realizes there's an enormous public backlash against austerity on the perceptions of what Austar ities done to the social fabric, and how do they square that circle, and George ward you make of the potential choice of science? We should clarify that Bose's team say nobody's being offered jobs, but his clearly bean some very deep conversations between the two of them. And it looks like it is happening. Why do you think they've gone facade in this row? Well on one very simple level. It will be highly attractive for Boris Johnson, so put into the treasury, the first ever norm. Whites charts. An Asian chancellor, especially giving Boris Johnson's weaknesses in terms of some of the things he said about race in the past butts on a much more substantial note. I think about that. They actually agree with each other quite on what they want to do with the economy. The Miranda says that such a Java is a Thatcherite, which is certainly tree famously had a picture of Margaret Thatcher his wall when he was the business secretary and the idolize too. But what I'm told by his friends and hell more, an idea magazine profile been earlier where we looked into a bit of his political philosophies that for a long time. He just believed in capitalism, in a very pure way thinking about it, but actually over time he's up. She'd become much more interested in the idea of building up social capital as well as actual physical capsule and so such Java to somebody who actually believes in investing in skills, and particularly investing in infrastructure and trying to boost the productive capacity of the economy. And you've heard such Javid talking about some setting one hundred billion pounds, infrastructure fund over five years when he was the community secretary he really riled for the Pam on the chance that by saying that there should be a fifty billion pound housing boring spree for housing, so. Such Chevy someone who is prepared to increase borrowing to invest, and I think that's something that Boris Johnson. We're very attracted to. So though, that he is a sort of thatch, right? And in many ways he is prepared spend money which is just mocks him out a bit from this trust. Who's currently the treasury chief secretary another person people speculated upon as being a possible. Chancellor an Johnson administration who is also a Thatcherite, but she somebody believes in low taxes and low public spending such Javi believes in low taxes, if you can get that work, but he's also quite prepared to spend money on investment. I mean, I think we have to boringly put some of the numbers in context, a little bit so one hundred billion over five years, twenty billion years as one percent of GDP, that's quite a lot of money, but is not huge. And this is where you sort of get into some of the comparisons with how because Hammond has also been chancellor who wanted to spend on infrastructure, and he has boosted infrastructure by at least that already. So if you had another one percent of GDP, bringing out title sort of infrastructure public investment net investment to about three to four percent. That would be really quite a change in the way. British government works. It'd be putting infrastructure much more at the heart of public spending than it is being it would also raise big questions about what happens to the current spending in departments outside health, and if wants he's education, pledges have gone, if you're in the police prisons, would you there for not get the money or local authorities because that's what we thought the spending of you is about it'd be about rectifying the difficulties that are currently here with the stereotype. But if you've to use Boris Johnson's own phrase, if you spent a whole lot of billions up the wall on infrastructure on everything, don't often tax cuts, like double digit billions of tax cuts. Then you at some point going to run into some big constraints on your public finances, and that is where the lack of strategy here in this toy in Egypt election is really playing that they haven't ever put it all together and said, who actually that's a lot of money. We've that sounds rather more. Like we used to be criticizing Jeremy Corbyn about than what we might think of as a traditional Tory government would do well finally all not note. And m eastern, a sense that the toys are just chasing. Labor's Taylor miss thing because all the Joe me cool been has his message from day one when he became opposition leader was, we have to spend more sturdy hasn't worked. It's damage the social fabric for society and the lack of infrastructures holding all calling me back and every speech, the John McDonnell has given has included that kind of sentiment and this is now looks if it's about to be adopted by the conservatives and you do wonder if we have a general election later this year, or in a couple of years time, it's going to be who can out spend two and the labour will say, oh, well, we won the argument, because the toys are now they don't care about the deficit and just spending more. Whereas at least we're going to increase taxes to fund off spending pledges. Why think Chris point is the key on really, which is, you've got to put it all together into some sort of strategy and some sort of plan that you can sell to the electric chasing spending commitments that labor have made will not work, and those were some of the errors that were made during the may erupt ticky, for example reviewing student. Finance this idea that you, you have to go Hof, the way to what labor is promising to neutralize their threat in specific policy areas hopeless. If you're going to go to the country, particularly in the autumn or next spring against Kuban e I mean, corbin's ratings are so low now that in a sense that, that threat has receded, but they would have to go with an economic plan on infrastructure on building all of these issues on the long-term skills challenge, which Georgia's quite right. It's excellent that we might have a chance to that really cares about behalf to go with something that looks like a strategy and looks far more like the individual policy tidbits that are coming out during this leadership contest, and that's it for this week's episode. Thank you to George Robert, Chris and Miranda, for joining in the meantime, if you've liked what you've heard would like to see more T journalism than do take a look at all eight to subscription office, which you can find F T dot com. Forced us offer. FD politics was presented by Mesa about us in pay. I'm produced by Caroline Grady until next time. Thanks for listening. Capital. One is building a better Bank. One that feels nothing like a typical Bank. It's why they've re imagined banking and built something completely different Capital One. Cafes they offer checking accounts with no fees, or minimums and savings accounts with one of the best savings rates in America. This is banking reimagined with your needs in mind. Open an account today at any Capital, One location or online in five minutes, and experienced banking. Reimagined for yourself Capital One. What's in your wallet Capital, One NA member? FDIC.

Boris Johnson Johnson prime minister George Jeremy hunt Westminster chancellor Philip Hammond Brexit Brexit treasury European Union UK Tory party Theresa May FDIC secretary Chris Jeremy Corbyn
DAILY TRAIL: Whats a billion Between Friends

LBC Election 2019

22:29 min | 9 months ago

DAILY TRAIL: Whats a billion Between Friends

"L. D. C. Election twenty-nine hello and welcome to the daily trail. If you're surprised to hear my voice rather than Dulcet tones of Sheila Fogarty I can only apologize on Matthew Thompson senior reporter in for Sheila today and as ever joining me in the studio is Dale in. Hello How's that for the first time. Well as on the podcast probably the anytime. Yes yes exactly. We'll take a view at the end. Shall we today. We've got quite lots of grind to cover we're GONNA talk about the ifes being less than complimentary. Let's say about some of the parties spending plans we've got Labor's pivot in strategy and we've got Johnson. Boris Johnson pledging to help women in politics. So let's start as they say at the beginning in the IFS that a stalwart of all tax and spend decisions in British politics the Institute for for Fiscal Studies less than complimentary today when it ran its rule over the various party. Manifestos that fair you. You just made the cardinal error broadcasting because you didn't preface ifs with much respected because we all have to respect everything the irs ever says because they fundable wisdom on economic matters unless you happen to disagree with them which of course both Labour the Conservatives dare. I wouldn't tear the the interesting thing in this is that they say that the Liberal Democrats are the most prudent party. I mean who the thought extraordinary it is. It is not what you would call a manifesto for belt tightening stairs. It isn't but compared to the other parties altis th th th the very face of fiscal responsibility. I saw groff recently a bar chart and it wasn't a Lib Dem on that showed the Greens Raines had committed to spending two trillion pounds worth of money in in them and if I stay labor was at one trillion. Maybe it maybe it was one that was the labor. were up to about four hundred billion. If you include all the nationalization stuff the Tories were about two hundred and ten and the Lib Dem's were about one nine three now. That was a couple of weeks ago. So they've all added to their titles since then particularly Labor with the waspy women and commitment. Now anybody who would describe themselves as a fiscal conservative people. He believed that you do need to balance the books at least over time is going to be a horrified by what any of the parties are promising at this election and if that is your main thing fiscal rectitude. Who Do you vote for in in this election? It's extraordinary that we've come such such away from election slogans of two thousand ten thousand fifteen which rolled by the importance of belt tightening and a matter of years that's just evaporated as a political strategist it completely because I think too. Many politicians nowadays take the voters for fools. They think that if they promised them all these nobles. They'll vote for them well. We will see on polling polling day but the thing is that there will promising that now I think people just don't believe any of it the waspy women from certainly from all of us we've been I've heard on the radio or my twitter feed. I think I found one so far. Who's going to vote Labour because of it because all the others think no this is too good to be true well that comes in for some particular criticism actually by this waspy woman pledge of fifty eight billion ponds and I think what Paul's Johnson direct to the says a boat? Is that if you're going to to criticize a policy that was announced fifteen years ago and is intended to redress some of the balance of inequalities. If you're going to oppose that and say that's unfair. Are you ever going to raise taxes on anyone. Well they say they're not going to raise taxes. It's going to be funded from burrowing well. Well they're not going to raise. Taxes is on the five percent while the clearly not genetic space that and you look at some of the lower. Those are thing in one of the papers today saying that if you are on various benefits and supports and you have an income of fourteen thousand. You're actually going to be on the Labor. I'm not by huge amount but you all going to be worse off and I I would say if you are on that kind of level even if you're fifty quals of you are going to notice that you've made worse off so a lot of these plans I think from. I'm all the parties that they put forward. They just haven't really been thought through and if the speaking had been thought for would it be presumably been in the Labour manifesto and beating their grey book. Because by this this decision they have completely undermined that what they did in the two thousand seventeen election where they become fully costed manifesto. They've said that this time and they clearly happened. I think one of the interesting things also by the conservative manifesto. Though is that Paul Johnson said that this is clearly a much more modest document than the labour. Party's but it it will. There's two things one. They said that it doesn't actually am end. Austerity because according to Paul Johnson Spending public services apart from healthcare but still be fourteen percent lower by twenty twenty twenty three twenty four than it was in two thousand ten eleven. The Tory manifesto doesn't actually end. They'll sturdy but also he said quite crucially that the he doesn't think George being entirely honest that they would actually have end up having to tax and spend more than they admit in this manifesto. Well that's always a mantra that any think tank group like the office always put forward that I can't remember them ever saying Yup. This is a completely credible plan Look voters have to make a decision in this election election on all sorts of things and if you are going to base your vote on fiscal rectitude. I called into the office. You should vote for the Liberal Democrats which would come as a surprise is to us? All the concepts maintain that they are maintaining fiscal rectitude. But you look at all of the promises and it's very difficult to actually justify that and with Labor we we know that they're not going to maintain fiscal rectitude and the problem that they've got is if they say they won the election with an overall majority which no one seems to think is a possibility. He's now say that happened. And within six months every the whole house of cards came tumbling down The financial markets crash the pound crashes crashes money flows out of the country What happens to all commitments? That they've now made all spend. It are costed that are costed convert in commerce. They wouldn't be able to put them in unless of course the neighbor party where they sat here would say the opposite that actual this investment will stimulate fantastic growth packages pitches and will do wonders for the economy. So that's just a sort of a difference of opinion. We may find out what we do about Labor though is it seems to be reported that they're having a a change of thought change of strategy. Perhaps it's we're told because of their own internal polling indicating that perhaps they're not performing as well in some of those northern and midland seats as they thought they might and then we have that of course that big YouGov m. r. p. multilevel regression post stratification. Poll done yesterday today. and which which seems to support that view that they're heading for a sixty eight majority conservative majority and largely expensive something like forty before Labor seats while the last election. I remember rubbishing this poll. Which did actually predicted right? And I I somebody sent me a tweet that I did. I mean I. I've got better things to do. Time and look up tweets that I wrote in two thousand seventeen but apparently not this tweet said One of us is going to have lots of egg on our faces after polling day and it turned out to be me. I find it a stretch to think that there'll be a sixty eight conservative majority. I think if there is a conservative majority it would be smaller than that but I I mean they they did get it right last this time but you look at the methodology of this poll. And it's actually quite difficult to get your head around. It seems to be incredibly complicated and you think well they said well if if one group of voters think this than they were to do that and then they do i. I do find it a stretch to think that the Tories would win by that much but Lynton crosby the Australian Po Campaigning. He has this phrase. You can't fatten a pig on market day. While there are now two weeks ago two weeks today we will be voting. I'm not sure that Labor can really introduce a definitive new message designed to appeal to Labor voters that they haven't thought of before because they've still got this policy a second referendum with a leader not saying how people should how eastern and the strategy appears to be getting more people like Ian Lavery and Richard Bergen and good London voters on television. If they if that's strategy really is to put Richard Burgundian Indian Labor in front of television cameras. All the Conservatives will think all that Christmas is come at once. What do you say to the argument? That actually pose like this. This he pulled from YouGov that gives the service a whopping majority of sixty eight is actually is actually Boris Johnson. Who will be most terrified at that because actually what it does? Is it engenders. Let's let's say complacency in there get the votes Strategy because people think well there's GonNa be a big majority so I'm not going to go out today if it's cold and I'm seventy five or whatever and actually at a lawyers people all who might be terrified. Let's to looks been looking at Finchley and golders green recently for example big Jewish vote and lots of people. They're terrified of Jeremy Corbyn government for example. So it would be more inclined to bite back Mac freer might mike freer standing for the conservative. But if they were confident of a massive tory-majority they'd be more likely to say well. Look I might as well vote for Luciana. Berger or whoever it is that. I won't vote for so this could actually be a damaging thing for the Conservative Party. We need to get the other candidates listed. Sorry Listen Dominic Cummings wrote a blog post yesterday saying exactly what. You've just said that there is no room for complacency here. He's not confident. They'll via Toyota Torretta now. You might say he would say that. Wouldn't he just to encourage people to go that extra mile deliver that extra straight with leaflets. norcal extra door just when you want to go home on a dark night fine but he does have a point because complacency can lead to rack and ruin an any election campaign and particularly when it said December election campaign because if next Thursday's cold and Wet and horrible and you're trying to not people up. I should explain that phrase that party activists go out in the evening and they try and get people who haven't voted to go down to the police station. Now that's going to be much more difficult on a December evening the June evening because I have someone knocked on my door at nine thirty in the evening and so you haven't voted yet. Can we get you go and vote not sure that I'd be likely to give them a warm reception. If I'm honest habit by post by the way so the final thing then of note today is the Liberal Democrat. Pledge To von the voter end rough sleeping now home credible credible do you think that it is within five years as a Liberal Democrat. Say that they can do if elected. Well it's a bit like the conservative pledge yesterday yesterday to say that there will be no bad mobile phone signals ever again. which actually when you look at it? They're they're saying yeah ninety. Five percent of the country will the five percent of the country's quite big land mass. I don't think anybody should ever promised to Andro sleeping. Because it is an impossibility because all of the the ponies are doing it. I mean the conservative part of the Green Party of all said that they want to do it. I don't believe a word of it because that all people who voluntarily homeless who involuntarily sleep on the streets now not many because why would you do that but there are lots of people with mental health problems. Who just will not be helped? Come what may and so. They will continue tinge to sleep rough wherever the state does to try and provide facilities for them not to do that. That's not to say that. They shouldn't be initiatives to help. Homeless people would accept that it's risen. It's it's not actually just since two thousand ten if you look all around the world famous nece is increasing. And I think there are lots of fighters to this the housing crisis you can. You can blame government policy in this country and that will have had an effect I imagined but there are other factors in it as well but I. I think it's an issue which is rising up the political agenda because middle class people do not like walking past homeless people. They feel a sense of guilt and even if they don't give many money which we shouldn't all homeless charities. Tell us not to give people on the streets money for all sorts of different reasons but it. Here's a big issue and I think more people are taking notice office which election issue though because once all the parties pledged to do something no one set apart on these his issues that anybody will say well. I'm voting for X.. Political party because of their policy on homelessness announced on that but I can't think that would be that many but it does give give me the opportunity to plug while undoing on December seventh. which is I'm going to be sleeping outside in Trafalgar Square on the world's big sleep out a lot of people have said? Oh that's it's just the chew signaling. Well I was kind of dragooned into it by Dame Louise Casey. I will admit that but I do think it's designed to raise the awareness of the issue and designed to raise money enough raise twelve thousand pounds so far apart second most of anybody in the country so if anybody who listens to this this podcast would like to sponsor me. Just go just type in Ian Dale Virgin giving insight there into Google and and You could sponsor me. It doesn't matter if any two pounds every every every little bit helps am signing on right. Excellent I'm glad you There was another story that I just. I wanted to quickly touch on which is about the donations that have been given to political parties in the last week Labor for the second running of had more nations than the Tories and I think it's about three million tourists to have lived only two two hundred and fifty thousand. SMP Any ten thousand pounds so it's very important for parties to raise a lot of money smaller smaller donations and largely. Because there's some statistics. Was it last week. The Tories had had a vast dump of donations over seven hundred. Seven thousand five hundred pounds. The thing can. It looked like they were massive. I'd spend the Labor Party but liberty says actually most other nations from small individual complete rubbish. Actually most of the money comes from the trade unions. Unions always has done probably always will see. That's something that I think in. The next parliament needs to be looked at the funding of political parties. Because people always always feel that the Tories whiff when it comes to how they're funny business Tonight's a lot of money and similarly with Labor and the trade unions. How much of a say to the trade unions have policy selection of candidates and similarly in the in the Tory party so? I suspect that he's going to be one of those things that needs to be looked at it in the next Parliament L. D. C. Election Twenty one thousand nine hundred. The hasn't actually been a lot of election news today. I mean I'm I'm thinking. What do I do my phone and on tonight I was thinking? I'm probably not going to do anything the election because nothing really has happened that I have any great interest however the DUP publish that manifesto when there's no news let's talk about northern the non exactly right now as you know law of my show But how'd you Is there anything in this manifesto. That's particularly and look. I mean I think I think the the central thrust of the DP manifesto today is about presenting unionism as united against Boris. Johnson's deal and they they are. They are staunchly against the idea of imposing any sort of border in the Irish Sea and they have they have committed to two things one to stopping that deliver breath using their ten votes to stop deal if they can oversee if at the sixty eight majority reports Johnson that seems less likely and the other thing they've committed to doing publicly is not ever backing Jeremy Corbyn. But here's what I think it gets very interesting for. The DP DP has an existential problem. This this deal that that has boris. Boris Johnson has got a is is just playing so terribly for them because it looks like they've been completely betrayed 'em it's playing badly for them domestically they've they've got to oppose it but the problem is that nature their strategy over the last couple of years has been that. There's there's very very few friends left in parliament. They can't go with Boris Johnson's conservatives. They can't go with the Labor Party in Jeremy Corbyn because they have consistently opposed and they have no one else to unite with. But here's what and I would predict in the event of a hung parliament. which is the only kind of time where they're ten votes are gonNA matter either way am or nine I mean or as I mean I think they could lose up to two seats in Belfast? For example There's another question on north. Don which is Might gain that from which was lady Sylvia Hermon seat for example and but the the point comes back to the point that if they have influence of any description and is most likely. Let's say in a scenario whereby there's a hung parliament. I would predict that in spite of the noise and sound and fury that they're making about not backing Jeremy Corbyn the possibility of labor second referendum gives them Gal jail free card on the matter of the deal. They are so implacably opposed to the deal that they cannot back the Conservatives. I wouldn't be surprised if actually the DP looking this election privately that they would never admit it publicly. The best result for them is a hung parliament in which Corbin is able to cobble together. Some sort of majority I. I wouldn't bet against them lending their votes in support of some sort of. I wouldn't say open shortly. That price would have to be a change. Well I'm sure they would negotiate for that but fundamentally it comes down to an ACO questions not you pay a bunch of political tarts. That's what it comes down to. I mean we. We know that from back in the Blair and Brown governments when they they I mean people talk about the billion not billion. The the Tories gave them. While you look at what Gordon Brown offer them as baubles to just to back the a ninety day terret attention legislation so I mean they they will they will vote in what they believed to be the best interest of the Union. You regard away. I I was going to say. They will prostitute themselves to anyone as long as they can get something out service and this is I think it is so crucial though for them because it's not simply a matter of a a billion here or a billionaire for them you cannot buy the. Up On the question of the Union. And that's why in spite of all the bluster by opposing. Jeremy Corbyn this that and the other. I wouldn't be surprised if when when the chips were dawn. They find themselves siding with a Labor Party. That's promising a second referendum. Of course it may not matter because we have a stonking conservative majority and there's there ten votes won't matter one way or the Northern Ireland is. I think it'd be much more interesting in this election. The end of it than it ever has been because Shin Fain of stood down in several seeds they in favor lever. SDLP The p the Alliance party. I think they're fighting every single into all eighteen seats. There was some suggestion whether are they might stand on in one or two. But they're actually making a thing of the fact that they're standing in all eighteen their likeliest is they they they might pick up one or two. It's possible probably more likely. Just one at the expense of the DP. Repeat most happened to the. Up The unions party. Because they when I was your age they they were the people in power nor deny the biggest influence and and yet I'm off to the Good Friday agreement they they seem to disappear the them and the SDLP. Of course I was trembling hume. who were the two guiding lights of the Good Friday Agreement? Basically what happened to both of them. They got out orange down the EP side and they got a green division vein side. And you actually had this rush to the extremes where the central ground owned of Northern Irish politics was hollowed out not dissimilar toy to being in the UK at the moment but they were out flanked by the up right flank by the DP and the GOP right flank and fame and the I have to say probably done a better job in recent years of of maintaining a degree of relevance the up of being through series of leaders that haven't been quite effective they do have some potential fertile ground knowledge though in the sense that unionism is angry with the DP up and the perceived tactical mess up. That's got themselves into this. Boris Johnson deal and there are questions over whether actually backing the Theresa may deal was the thing to do and it looks like I mean. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but looking at it the Theresa May deal from a union perspective is infinitely better than the one the bars Johnson's on offer so there is potentially fertile ground for the. Up under a new leader Steven can to to make some inroads on the DP on the issue of trust on the issue of this agreement and potentially moving into more remain focused. You know appealing to remain unionism. So they have. There are options for them as a couple of seats in which they might do well but they also attract a great deal attracted a great deal of criticism for not standing dine in another of number of other key seats and therefore of splitting the unionist vote. But it's the it's the the the question Northern Ireland is do you. Do you align only things to become a simple sectarian head kind or do you at least offer people choice in a bit of New Orleans and I. It's almost like you're never going to get away from the the the awful sectarianism ingredient orange politics. If you don't offer people choice and you can see why there's a you know from the unionist community. There might be a bit of pressure on them to stand on the law law and the DP contested fain in certain seats but also why not. Why not take the opportunity to try and make those inroads back into politics that they've been squeezed for the next decade? Well let's finish the podcast on highlight and give the candidates for Finchley notice greed. They are you see on the budget for the Lib Dem's Ross Houston for labor and Mike Freer for the conservative. I'll be back tomorrow with a daily trail with Sheila fogarty Don't forget also to download the new edition of the many podcasts which is on the same feed as this one. I'm Jacqui Smith. I recorded that last night so enjoy that a very goodbye. Goodbye maybe see you again. You never know L. D. C. election. Twenty nine thousand nine.

Boris Johnson Labor Jeremy Corbyn Labor Party Liberal Democrats Paul Johnson Sheila Fogarty Mike Freer Union L. D. Conservative Party Ian Dale Virgin Northern Ireland IFS Fiscal Studies Richard Burgundian Indian Labo twitter
Interview special: Lionel Barber

FT Politics

32:25 min | 7 months ago

Interview special: Lionel Barber

"Welcome to empty politics. Irregular discussion on what's happening in Westminster Mr from the Financial Times. I'm sebastian pain. After one of the most turbulent. Let's go years in living memory. Westminster has thankfully taken a break over Christmas and so a week. Brexit it's shuffling towards completion but with not much on the agenda right now it seems opportune moment to look back with a bit of perspective and to do just I'm joined by a very special guest. This week Lionel Barber who I'm sure listeners. Know is editor of the F. T.. He joined the paper in nineteen eighty five and served firstly as our Washington in correspondent plus was bureau chief news editor of the last fourteen years editor. He's overseeing the F. T. transformation for my print product to primarily a digital organ and he is stepping down at the beginning of January. So I thought it'd be good to sit down with a look back over British politics from his time at the F.. T. Line of thank you very much for joining. Thank you for the invitation set. So we're sitting here a week. After Boris Johnson's election victory which was quite a surprise forever and the sheer scale of that majority when when you saw the exit polls coming. What were your immediate thoughts thumping win? I thought he would win. The Conservatives would beat Jeremy Corbin's wins Labor they had a flawed candidate and as we said INARA Detoro a very flawed policy program. I thought maybe forty or fifty so. At not was above my expectations. Maybe above their expectations in some gorgeous. I think that's absolutely true that even inside the conservative campaign the day before they were saying oh a majority of one is still a victory so there was a lot of nervousness about that. Bush Johnson is quite curious characters prime minister in one that typically the FTE has always supported pro business candidates but both Johnson Pu something interesting question for us because he business than Jeremy Corbyn but his exit is it policy still leaves a lot of unanswered questions and potentially economic disruption to while I've known Boris Johnson since Nineteen ninety-two when I first met him actually in Lisbon at the summit in the summer I was told the you see that young men with long blond hair he's going to be your biggest competitive patches threat in Brussels and I thought man to watch well. He's done very well. Hasn't reached high office welby on journalism for the F.. T. We found found it very difficult to back him and the Tories this time round because he represented and led the brexit campaign and we would not in favor of Brexit on the other have a hand. The majority sentiment was clearly not in favor of another hung parliament and stars for another three years of what we've had we felt. Let's now have a fresh start. He's got a clear majority and something of a mandate but we need to know what kind of Brexit he wants. What kind kind of trade terms with Europe and all these things? We hope to shape in the future debate because of course even Boris Johnson has now banned the word brexit from actually johnny the thirty for civil servants and no longer allowed to use that word as so desperate to get that message of getting brexit done across. But as we've often said those those hard choices ahead head. What's The new word? Exit the Glorious Future. I Lo- Britain the people's Britain perhaps the channel people's governments thing. So when we get to this time next year which will be the big crunch point. Is there a trade deal. Do we spill out on. WTO terms or do we extend what would be your gut look slightly backwards. I if you think of the thousands tens of thousands of woods spilt about well again to crash out of the European Union. No I think and actually that wasn't gonNA happen because it serves no one's interest. They all play a game of chicken. I think Johnson's going to be much tougher in the negotiations this time. Round Theresa may was very passive accommodating. I think it will be a tough negotiation. I think probably it's going to be a bad bones. Trade Agreement demint so no tariffs but that's not necessarily friction free access to the single market. I think they'll want to do a deal on goods but sevices though want freedom from so if they can't agree they'll sort of say we'll have a mini deal and then we'll build on that in the future and I think it will come back to this dilemma. That in many of our colleagues have written about which is about fish versus financial services. That if you're looking at economic interests you would do a deal to keep us in lockstep with the blocks on in financial services to protect the city of London but in return for that the e will want to continue access to a fishing waters. and where Mister Johnson's new vote. Well it's not people in the city of London is people who have fishing poles well. Clearly financial services are a lot more important than fish but fish is politically a real stinker. But more seriously. I'm not sure whether we all the majority view in the government or indeed in the Bank of England and the Treasury is for close alignment with the European Union on financial services. Actually I think they'd be happy to diverge. I think a lot of those new conservative. MP's you've been elected for the first time are particularly concerned about goods because a lot of some come from manufacturing industry so as you said getting a break to deal in goods with zero tariffs is very straightforward. But it comes down to those non-tariff barriers in those supply fly chains and of course the litmus test I will be Nissan in Sunderland which is not quite represented by conservative. MP Area now has a big number of them and if that plant gets into trouble then knots tens of thousands of jobs on the line that and the supply chain. is you say around Nissen. The crucial thing is in two thousand twenty twenty. We're going to hear a lot more about one word and that's going to be standard because people were talking too much in terms of tariffs. That's not the issue you can and be prevented from access to market not just by Taras but actually by standards. That's the key. Yes and of course what Mr Johnson talked about about state aid. That's just the kind of thing that Brussels negotiators are going to want the UK to stay at the same level with the EU on that. And the you and I was there in November and I went and talked to all the key negotiators for an article. I was writing about which somewhat personal giving my career as a European correspondent based in Brussels cooled point of departure. When essentially I was saying we all GonNa leave and it was striking? How worried they were about out? state-aid rules being breached in effect. That Britain would also cut taxes dramatically and become sort of some offshore hedge fund. Well it's the Singapore on Thames thing that we hear so often about now. I mentioned this on which helpfully takes us right back to the beginning of your career when you joined the F.. T. in the mid eighties right. The pump of Thatcherism and there are some strange powers with British politics then and now. The European debate hadn't quite kicked off but Labor was in a left-wing wrote it was was getting saved by Neil Kinnock who the neo connect of today is going to be but when you look back on those thatch ears because a lot of conservatives viewed as a moment of on adulterated triumph is that how you view it. Well I started my career in Scotland in nineteen seventy nine on the Scotsman. And of course that matched when Margaret Thatcher Gotcha came to power. She made an impact so quickly with removing foreign exchange controls and then really letting the pound rise and manufacturing factoring got crucified. And I was the industrial correspondent. I moved to the Sunday Times. And someone said you'll like the monasteries correspondent under Henry the eighth because it was really being devastated. So you get through that. And then as you say Margaret Thatcher one thousand nine hundred eighty five eighty six eighty seven. She's in pump actually number one Europe is beginning to take off because of the single market. It's before the Maastricht treaty but this talk of a monetary union and Margaret Thatcher Eighty. Seven gives her Bruce Speech and the last point is the story that I made my reputation on in one thousand nine hundred eighty six sakes was the western too fat. Which essentially was Michael Hesseltine building? A case for you got to help this Western helicopter company. It should be a European. We don't want to go with the Americans and that was a proxy for the European political battle and it cost two cabinet ministers Leeann Britain and Michael Heseltine Sultani and she went for the American option in the end which was where her political heartless as opposed to you up but of course it was that time as well yes the UK was part of forming the single ullmark but it was also when Jack Law came to the TC conference and gave his famous speech. That said that you was going to be a social project. And that was when the left assaulted turned more pro European and the vice to determine more. US skeptic there was no evidence at that point the UK would ever think about exiting the project. You're quite right. That was a very important moment. Jack Log did come to the. TC there was no real. Talk of super-state. Everything changed in one thousand nine hundred ninety German German unification and the price exacted for German unification was what the French inject a law called an economic and monetary union on the one hand balanced by political union now for people in Britain and particularly if one or two they were called euro-sceptics in those days is not brexit as these people said. It's a European superstate now. I never believed this. And in Maastricht which major negotiated that was a brilliant cake and eat it exercise because we didn't join the single currency there was no common European army. We went in the Schengen agreement on free movement so it was a brilliant negotiating excise bought the fact is the federalists won the argument in the long term a moisture was seen as a sellout and when you think back to that time. There was the famous cover of the Spectator magazine which Chancellor Kohl on the phone with Nicholas Ridley painting a Hitler Moustache and he gave an interview you that was fairly inflammatory and said this whole thing is a German racket. One thing that I think is often forgotten is how skeptical Margaret Thatcher in the Conservatives. Were about the German reunification and the impact that would have on the future of U up. She tried to stop it along with Francois Mitterrand. I was in Washington at the time and I covered that story in detail because I was covering national security and foreign policy in America's was politics and the Americas Baker and Bush said No. We need German unification in in respect to Nicholas Ridley a brilliant man. He's completely wrong. This was not a German racket. Actually European Monetary Union and move at Maastricht was to contain German power to anchor a united Germany not to increase German power before we get to the Meiji he is you obviously based in Washington. DC for quite a long time during that and you must have witnessed a lot of the Thatcher Reagan relationship which was probably the high point of the special the relationship after the Second World War. What do people get long about the special relationship? Because they had a similar worldview they will pushing similar politics but were there. Strategic Strategic Aims always aligned. First of all there was a remarkable personal rapport between Thatcher and Reagan. I may say that Charles mows the volume which. I'm reading at the moment of the biography of Margaret Thatcher is excellent in this respect. He really captures this chemistry. Some of the people around Reagan thought. Why are we giving so much space to this this woman? She's dictating the tune but she was ahead of Ronald Reagan in the overtures to Gorbachev in Soviet Union. She anticipated that he was as a person. The West could do business with the same time. There were one or two moments of real tension off to the record summit. Reagan essentially wanted to get rid of nuclear missiles and Margaret Thatcher was pulled as well. They were diverging views on Bush and Thatcher on Germany formation. As I say she was also pulled by the invasion of Grenada but largely it was more the world view of dealing with Russia managing the end of the Cold War and the West was right and had the might and then also obviously deregulation just the whole sense of weaken the state. If you remember Reagan's is comment about seven. Most Cherry was in the English language. I'm from the government. Hi How can I help. Margaret Thatcher could have easily said that but then of course the fact she is tenants the Meiji Agius. And I think I've heard you say a couple of times before the John. Major was quite an underrated prime minister that he won the ninety two election when nobody expected him to. But it also of course he achieved Maastricht. Which you've said was cake and eat it? It was a good deal for the UK. He was underrated in the sense that had to manage judge a very slim majority in parliament. And therefore he was vulnerable but he warned against expectations. That ninety-two election against Neil Kinnock. What what then happened of course was a disaster? The explosion of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism that we had joined which was a fixed but adjustable title exchange rate system where we thought this would tame inflation and maybe it was a prelude to joining a single currency probably not but we joined joined the wrong rate and it exploded in Nineteen ninety-two and the Conservatives reputation for solid economic policy exploited by the way Nigel Olsson now. A big eurosceptic skeptic favored joining the are just want to say that but the crucial point was that John Major and can clog and Norman Lamont want reconstituted British economic policy and it was a great success and they left a great legacy for Tony Blair nineteen ninety-seven indeed and of course when Gordon Brown eventually came in he followed the same spending lose. Ken Clarke done over his previous couple of years as onslaught probably a mistake. Actually they could have eased up up a bit. They overcooked as I remember in ninety nine two thousand on the public spending but they were so keen to have credibility in the markets. What what they didn't do? I always remember this. They had one hundred seventy nine seat. Majority this was extraordinary. Lack crushed the conservatives in ninety-seven and and yet they were still worried about Europe. And I can remember in European summit in the Netherlands. ninety-seven Alister Campbell. Bounding over to me. And I'd known him when he was a Daily Mirror political editor under the Reagan Thatcher years. And he said what is this year of politics. That sort of summed up where we were going but when you look at that email see John Major is now come out as one of the biggest voices since in his retirement for the European caused. But then you sold the split splitting the Conservative Party was opening and many of the characters who oppose Maastricht under the same people who led the brexit campaign many decades later he managed to hold it together. He kept the summit together in that period when you moved to bustles and was the. FTC's bureau chief that. How did the major government representative south in those summits? How engaged was Britain? Because one of the things that you skeptics have always said is. Britain didn't have an influence bitten. Didn't have a voice. Well this is just not true. First of all on the security side we very very important. We were influential in the Balkans conflict. Douglas Hurd was then foreign secretary. Latterly Malcolm Rifkind. We will a serious Powell. With a serious worldview. Second we will always influential in trade matters is where we represented the free trade wing influencing the Germans and containing the French third. We were always influential on the rules around the single angle market. We were respected in that respect full we backed enlargement I to Austria Sweden and Finland. No way didn't make it and then to central and eastern Europe we had a massive influence. So this is completely rewriting history. What we did have would to awkward things? One was the beef war. We had the scandal so we had a beat boycott from the U.. And John Major's suffered that it was grim period and I think the the other point was he had a slim majority and so he looked a bit weak. I remember helmet. Kohl's national security advisor saying to me the trouble Johm Asia's and he did a sort of wavy. TV motion with his hand. He said he's like a skier. He's always sort of skiing around things but of course you only got a slim majority. That's what happens before we get to the blaze. There is one think I think the major era that we should mention the F.. T. which I still hear from conservative. MP's today which was a nineteen ninety-two election endorsement. Now says long before you became editor it was not your core but when the FT endorsed Neil Kinnock in nineteen ninety two. That was very infamous moment. That's gone down in the paper's history. Well I was actually fortunately absolutely in Berkeley California on Sabbatical after my tour in Washington and before going to Brussels and I remember being asked to give a lecture at Berkeley on the coming general election and I finished it with saying. I'm not really sure what's going to happen but I can be sure about. One thing that the Financial Times would not endorse Neil Okay and when people go back to read that leader extraordinary piece because basically makes the case for John Major accepting the power graph then swerves towards. Actually it's time unhealed kinnock. Yeah I think maybe some mice got to Attack it just before Winston print and we were criticized very heavily but we got through that I think people hold that over us and it's you know it's nearly thirty years ago. Please come you know have a statute of limitation so we come to the black bound years and you still in Brussels this poem before you came back as news editor of the F.. T. Antoni black came in on a very pro-european wave and he was also in favor of the euro. And eventually Gordon Gordon vowed turned against it advised by his then chief advisor later shadow. Chancellor Ed balls how did you see bless approach to you because it strikes you when you read back He. He came in on time to take a different approach. The Meteo and be fully integrated Orland now with you but then pressured by maybe some parts of the press some pots public opinion. He became pretty eurosceptic in some ways. Well I see it slightly differently. Set the first thing is to remember is how big black was laws in Europe. At the beginning he was seen as the young leader. Who got it right? How to win a huge majority the new Third Way and he just towered over all of his counterparts because Helmet Kohl was on his way out just fine Europe? I mean play was the big new thing. I think that Gordon Brown had serious economic doubts about joining the single currency. I think they were right. Peter Mandelson was whispering in Tony Blair's he is saying if you want to be a real. Your opinion should join Tony Blair. was you know. He's flexible shall we say. I'm not sure he absolutely committed but he gave the impression that he favored it. And do you think looking back on that debate the UK made the right decision about the US. No question because at that point obviously there was a huge huge debate. It's the first time dominic. Cummings now the Plymouth chief advisor in is probably going to shape. A lot of his government entered into the national picture because he ran the business for sterling campaign at that moment and what is interesting. There are some people I remember our Gideon Rachman with someone who is skeptical of joining the euro but that was a point again the ratcheting up of US skepticism for muster in the ninety S. Until we come to Brexit so this is fine they were right business sterling. This absolutely right and Dominic Cummings around Britain campaign but what they tend understand. was that again. We had cake and eat it. We were the offshore trade and Financial Center. Where all the money from the euro zone? We're capital flows around the single currency increased dramatically. They came to London. They didn't go to Frankfurt Onto Brussels or to Paris so we had the best of both worlds out of the single currency but took advantage of the single currency throughout financial. Send and I want to ask you about George W Bush and Tony Black. Because that's relationship. You must've watch developed over a period of time that what was it that drew those too close together was it. Tony Blair is designed to be a statesman because that was probably one of the mall closest special relationship since the faction Vega era. Well it's funny because the Brits were worried because Bla- actually had a very good relationship with Bill Clinton politically. They were very close David. The Third Way Third Way politicians. So I think Tony Blair was very anxious to get close to George W Bush. He saw this as the key relationship and of course I was a little bit of naive not enough to nine eleven. Everything changed. It was fine to get close to George W Bush from the Americans on invasion of Afghanistan and toppling. The Taliban the problem was faced too. And I remember having a tool with senior adviser to Tony Blair and he said you know. That's Iraq phase two we invade Iraq. That's a whole thing and the neo. Cons drove the policy and then when France sherack can should in Germany pushed back against the neons and against invasion of Blair found himself. We gotta choose and he thought he could influence Bush and the debate in the UN and get a UN resolution. Of course we failed and this was a disaster. Now you you became editor of the F.. T. In two thousand and five which was around the time of Tony. Blessed third and final and Labor's last election victory. We should point out as well then and that was when the mood began to move towards Gordon bound. He became promise to in two thousand seven. Of course he was hit very quickly with the financial crisis. Which I'm sure your degrees being if not the one of the defining finding stories of your editorship at the F.? T. Gordon bound is highly lauded as the guy who saved not just the. UK's according but a lot of the world banking system as well now but is often criticized. Prime Minister has not been too successful. Do you think history might be kind to Gordon Brown because of his role in the Christ. Oh there's no question that Gordon Brown played a leadership role in the global financial crisis. We were earlier to spot the flaws in the financial system. What needed to be done? In terms of recapitalizing the banks. I think we would take him very seriously. Around the table and we showed a leadership role with Nicolas Sarkozy than the Americans came in and finally he dealt with therein banking problem and the problem was the Europeans not responding so yes I do think that people will be kind to Golden Brown and then the Ft. Which I guess was your first? Election Dawson backed the Conservatives in twenty ten much to Gordon Brown's displeasure. I'm sure leaves a very unhappy but can imagine that phone call. What was the reason that you decided that Labour had had enough of that point that it was enough it was time for a change? Actually it wasn't a phone call. It was a conversation in person who a few few weeks off to it but I think that we just felt that David Cameron Joe's bone represented a new kind of conservative movement Kamaluddin more pro European with a bit of skepticism and it was and we just felt it was time for a change. We'd had thirteen years of labor and in the end and we saw that they can get a majority so I was very very keen to have coalition government which was a new experiment largely worked quite well until of course in in two thousand fifteen when On the Lynton Crosby David Cameron decided to kill the coalition. Indeed I think it was William Hague who comes to that time that when they signed the coalition. Do Go. He said to someone who was in the room we've assigned the death won't if the Liberal Democrats they knew at that point it would destroy their reputation as this independent centre-left voice that ah the coalition years on a lot of criticism even by Boris Johnson the Conservatives now because of how they handled austerity and how they handled that needs to deal with the public finances following the clash given what we now know about where interest rates are and how economy has developed. Do you still think austerity was the vine call for the team for the country to support so no question in two thousand ten eleven and probably to a degree into twelve. It was important. We running a budget deficit of around you know nearly eleven percent of GDP. Things could've gone terribly terribly wrong so I think it was correct. I think by the way. Ah The damage to public. Services really went too far. And we're really seeing the detriment to the criminal. Justice System for example local government woman and I think Georgia's won't probably overdid it. My criticism would be poly to box in the Labor Party to show that the Tories were tough on spending ending. I think that they could have been a little bit different on the tax policy. The biggest criticism is given that interest rates. Were going to Mamane so low for so long they could have been bolder on infrastructure spending his off the easiest. Say That in hindsight now because nobody knew we were going to be in this very low interest rate AOL. Some people did say that and if you look at the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and monetary policy actually could say that interest rates are going to be low for a long time when we came to the twenty fifth election the F. T. leader which I read recently the last how God has a note of caution in it about David Cameron's Europe policy which obviously he proved to be the undoing his whole government and we supported again. A Conservative led administration was the phrase that we use that when you look back that whole renegotiation Chan Dot drama. One thing is forgotten. Is that David. Cameron did get a new deal. It didn't include from the European perspective major compromises but that was the moment into which the US skeptics and the now ecstasies. They are outgunned expectations every time. And when that deal came back it was totally trashed and that whole period. I think you probably agree with his failure of statesmanship. Well it was a mouse and David Cameras. Teen didn't like what we said about that and we predicted it was going to be a mouse side of pretty heated conversation with one of them on the phone. One day it just never gonNA pass muster and he should have negotiated harder and he didn't do you think he could have got a much better deal than the one he got. I think he could have got a better deal. I think it should have been focused. You know the case for hypocrisy a lot of these other European countries. They say they've got something they say they'll do something. We we apply the rules. We go plate. He should have been tougher on the welfare. Payments for immigrants immigration was the key. If you say we absolutely kind of have anymore immigration. He should have fought harder for that. And one of the things we haven't talked about of course was the rise of UK. I think I think we underestimated that. At the F.. T. On when you look at the twenty nine thousand nine election result the reason the considers one such a big majority is because the U. Kit hip vote which became the party. Vote all went home. They essentially reunited divide whereas the left was split between the Liberal Democrats and labour. And that fundamentally is what drove boys Johnson to win an eighty majority. I think the Cummings Johnson analysis in this respect is absolutely right. We didn't approve of the tactics. Used to get the withdrawal bill through the Commons. But this notion of co-opting the brexit lobbying the European research group and you KIP was the best tactic and it worked very effectively would quickly jump over. The May tranmere shift because the less said the better in most people's perspective it was a pretty grim period wasn't it not much was achieved and we diminish as a country and I think it was that the country known for respecting its legal institutions. Parliamentary institutions came under much attack. And and when you look back on it. The has been the slightly Cathartic moment since the election. People feel. Brexit is now happening where there's been a lot of doubt throughout that three the Period Mrs May negotiate a deal which is basically bullish. Johnson's D allows we know in that period. But what do you think of the lessons from that pre diet three Since the referendum one of the lessons which is not talked about enough is that the British economy performed relatively speaking remarkably. Well I mean given what was done to it and given the amount of uncertainty of course has lost growth the opportunity cost of this stagnation and doing nothing and parliamentary paralysis for three years. But it does say something about British economy. When you talk about Cathal says of course I mean if the were a crash out that would be catharsis with a cold? Shell the second lesson is this country doesn't doesn't work well. If parties done majorities the third lesson is that wasn't a constructive opposition. Any decent opposition would have made mincemeat of the Conservatives and the fact that the Labor Party was hijacked by a radical. left-wing a figure out of the nineteen seventies does not speak well for Labor. It was remarked by one unconservative. MP that if ED milliband had been leading the Labor Party now he was a flawed leader as well. But he's got a much better chance of winning than Jeremy. Corbyn dead a better chance but I still would say that probably Johnson Cummings would have beaten miliband and finally just to look forward for what's going to happen so we talked about out the next year which is going to be dominated and policy terms by the brexit trade deal. But also we've got this constitutional review we've got the social CAC prices prices. Where do you see British politics going next? And all we entering the Johnson decade. Well it's too soon to talk about a decade. I mean he's got five years for me. The most important thing is what is the future of this country outside Europe. What are we gonNA come some trait on in terms of relative strength strength? The city of London's got to be one thing. Education further education is another. We've gotta be open to the best of talent around the world. And we've also got to really address some of these deep social economic problems in inequality and and what's happened well beyond the city state of London if you like. I think it'd be interesting interesting about constitutional reform. I wouldn't be against taking a look at the House of Lords that will be profitable but Johnson has to define what our priorities detainees. What kind of nation does he want? And how does it relate to the rest of the world and are we going to be still a medium sized power that punches above its weight and of course is the future of the UK self as well. And I know that one thing you'll quite passing against Scottish independence and that is coming right back the agenda again it feels like a second referendum is going to be on the cards and the cases probably stronger than it was in two thousand fourteen but there are still big questions about will the UK exist in five years time for me again. If the United Kingdom splits and we become smaller that will have an effect on how we L. Seen by the outside world and it will affect our relative influence and I also think we'd be much diminished by the loss of scone. Thank you very much faster fact checking to us. That's it for this episode of empty politics will be back next. Refer another Christmas special interview with another departing colleague all Whiter editor James Blitz. Let's in the meantime if you've liked what you've heard more F. T. journalism and you can find our latest subscription offers. ENTI votes last offer after politics was is presented by me. Sebastian produced by on a data until next time. Thanks for listening

UK Mister Johnson Europe Conservatives Britain Margaret Thatcher Labor editor Tony Blair Gordon Brown Brussels Neil Kinnock Maastricht Johnson Cummings US Brexit George W Bush Jeremy Corbin John Major Financial Times
144: EXTENSION REBELLION: Will Boris blink?

Remainiacs - the Brexit Podcast

1:00:27 hr | 10 months ago

144: EXTENSION REBELLION: Will Boris blink?

"Smoked beef brisket with Nashville hot seasoning. It's topped with melted pepper Jack at our sweet and Tangy slob served piping hot toasted corn bread roll. Yeah a corner Are you hungry for the usual today for you ready to spice things up with the new Nashville hot brisket from firehouse subs we're kicking up our slows hello and welcome to the latest essentially impossible they should have remained acts some people and we're seeing a lot of conservative and piece of stayed within the Conservative Party really begin to feel uncomfortable about staying thank this week actually a referendum is looking slightly more likely than it was I think that is now fox becoming talked up as the INDIV- legislation being down immediately after the summit and we now know that the MP's are going to be sitting on the subsidy take oxbridge today Boston's constituency in front of me that filthy piece of Iraq tax money I'm onto Harrison helpless to code the latest Brexit signals from the paranoid polit bureau we have three of our regulars freshman weeks holiday and clearly delighted to be back and the you know effectively having no deal on the manifesto being thing that is going to push them over so I think on numbers are a guessing there I think we are going to see some turn out I think most of them M he's still terrified of a general election definitely don't want it so I think in I've been Bahasa Bedtime of sunshine very we even vaguely to not come back to reginald tire biking would quit to lead by donkeys to their own campaign to spoof those self-same ridiculous it's GonNa help from the winners of that get ready to mock Boris Johnson competition the winners have just been chosen by David Yeah Yeah but what we've just got to make sure we do is clear path to them to get in because wouldn't it be ironic extinction rebellion people's vote much that stopped the the people saying it's going to be generally it's going to be a general it's going to be a general I still think it is highly likely but I do think that a referendum is creeping up the pilot perpetuity teenager who was writing an opera that was attacking this orientalist idea of foreigners and Muslims as barbarians and referenced him on the Monday potentially so I think I'm feeding quite optimistic willing to heroes in the chamber if they're gonNA cut real rats they should they should be able to I mean purely in terms of timings obviously this is a vital important week but I think it will come down to the actual end of the month commando IANUCCI so go online and look at them political irises listen over the headline is go funds Ramona's with fifteen hundred quid women I think you did a very tough walking around looking like somebody shouldn't be disagreed with I think we should send you some Brussels to go in bloody hard yeah there's the the big people's vote much on nineteenth when they'll hopefully try to do the essay twenty four get your paper and then put down some kind of legislation around ahead to get ready for Brexit at at the start of the show we know this is annoyed some listeners but we can't block them without blocking lots of other legitimate so donating all the money will be a total of fifteen Emmett Smith chief executive bit best I'm a twitter tight senate known as me you recuperated for the final yeah I am I see it's I thoroughly recommend been much softer towards it and I think they're key on lockers of that wing of the Tory party so I'm feeling quite hopeful all right completing the same as an after Johnson's off who is rejected by Angela Merkel unnamed number ten spokesman has been ponding on the insults it's almost as if this was daddy plan all along as we will be discussing later by the way you may there's a lot of talk in the upper about European women bond for freedom isn't it I mean I just think it's is it typical that moats out in seven I I have the same feeling as Naomi I think things are very gently shifting now was there for them I've heard noises World War Johnson's office and physically you on the seventeenth big demos and the trump teeth what is your assessment of where we're at now nutshell I because ultimately it's only purposes trolling accomplishes when it's announced rather than the thing that comes out to ask them or someone scratching out twins from people like I'm barraged Kenneth Clarke who are very resistant to have over final say vote recently the it was a little talk about how this this coin supposedly with a date in ten days time hasn't yet been minted yet and how you doing can live up to that did you enjoy your taste of power the Pasha I love it I love it I should always be draped with also with US fresh from a triumphant performances Pasha Salim in Mozart's Seraglio at the Hackney Empire last night yes we've got culturing acne cygnets November for a very I remain live show in the north of England or soul food to be precise Dorien rose will be appearing at the lowry spectacular venues offered keys near Media City for matinee show on the first weekend after supposed- brexit day tickets are going fast and they may well constitute discount plus mugs and t shirts and early access to the podcast remind number two this Saturday the twelfth Tober it's the Rally for our rights in London Britain's only hard currency if no deal goes through so get Ios now before the surge when we announce our special guest next week they'll be traditional welby rattling around in your pocket as a reminder of how brexit didn't happen as could indeed get ready for Brexit as a reminder of how it didn't happen sort of bid against themselves a little bit we're going to get gelman game of chicken was dominant cummings increasingly unhinged briefings and strong arm tactics with all the EU countries later plus what's without government of national unity that still show and fifty five tuft and street which should be interesting be there if you can end next Saturday nineteenth of October it's the big one MP's actually getting into vote by the way isn't it the prime minister that said we've got pro parliament's W we don't need Palma for the next five weeks you need today now charming the letters B. Heard March in London from Park Lane to parliament this one you really have to get to we need to make it the biggest anti brexit across the sprawling and sixty two metroplex search lowry Romanians for tickets remember Patriot backers get early bird access to all our live tickets ended the mighty Pasha Resound Faris Song let the show reverberate with the joyful sound of our songs active cook writes a political anything he can't do Alexandra those cheerful subjects animal for this reminder from partially him in the boys just please note here performing ordinary briefing claiming that Michaels demands for Northern Ireland to remain in a Customs Union Mandel look quotes essentially impossible not just whatever it also made clear that they are willing to torpedo the reminder number one if the trains are still running after thirty first of October we're off to Manchester on Saturday the second Downing Street and certainly within the Conservative Party much more cautious and wouldn't take that approach but coming from him it was quite good when you put those two things together that long in this country this country what's your what do you think we're at I don't think it is I think it's the week after that we'll be crunch crunch twix Friday Agreement he said which is a bit rich coming from the people who've been ignoring the Good Friday Agreement so anyway the mess was compounded by an equally obnoxious leaked to the spectator which coming said that being no side of materializing and while nobody's looking project is actually coming true collapses in Cosima confidence of warnings of the largest deficit in fifty years should we leave on no deal static protests rather than a march protesters are meeting and sent Jones Gardening Westminster and then moving onto the Home Office the European Parliament UK office insent John Smith Square Quality Briggs to analysis and low quality Greg's jokes plus exclusive special merchandise appropriate from when Kewnyan sulfur is an everyone from the spectator which is just go became more more demented further went home and then the stuff that was sort of Banja merckel which was quite clear the three times as many them changed the date on that thing once before they just don't give a shit they will just keep on shining this stuff out take the stage is quite clear that they wanna move on from the deal no actually let me be clear cummings wants to move on from the deal onto the no deal prep because there are other forces within get Rumania will be there please be there if you can. That's remaining live at the lowry Manchester Two PM on Saturday second of November and search it's Dominic Cummings basically trying to brief into deal yes so the property is at the stage all this stuff is essentially the establishment of the narrative and the in St distance from it and it makes it look more plausible than it really is because it's a source right it's not like the person that's actually it seems like someone's going from underneath whereas action countries which opposed delay is an extension will go to the front of the queue on future cooperation on supporting delay will be seen by this hostile interference in domestic politics editor of politics DOT CO DOT UK all of the coming look how to be a liberal and that's exasperated Manu Sam television following weeks of renounced the brexit fifty eight not just by the degree of like that kind of pounding confidence that he uses trying to get your submission however it still matters because just by having an anonymous it gives down and if she says anything we will then repackage that into the Boston Germans taking control of Europe and now they've slapped off Britain and so if we go win there is a successful no-confidence motion is the precise purpose of it is to allow an alternate government to be formed and act doesn't affect the he's trying to dictate the policy so that matters and that's really all that we were getting from that was him trying to move onto the next stage of the narrative but you before that's triggered more resistance within the conservative because I'm John Keane come back for the fix this is shaping up to be the most crucial forthright since the referendum so that is the most crucial for the second that was then framed in this very cummings like way of Fuck you you moms a slack and by the way we can fucking leave it also red light one of his mouth explanatory notes to the fixed therm parliament acts make it clear that the purpose of that fourteen day periods off the if somebody resigns you see it when it happens you just like this is really very poor and if you made out of Plato you'll be better at executing this really is also really wrong because the hour of the queen to dismiss the PM it relies on the existence of that power to work and anyway we could easily put down a bit on twitter hadn't fifty years later we're still talking about the same shit it's just metropolitan elite you should turn continues metropolitan as I know Vienna Le- let's take them where she's going to have to fight me really is that the plan of course the same thing with per game over and over whenever the plan gets reviewed its mm-hmm that doesn't mean that we don't have a problem with this anonymous breathing thing because you know the one argument against that is to say look we fucking no it's him every time you read something from him obviously run by the Word Yeah and you had Richard Thais this morning or even late last night I can't remember it was saying this those have been briefing repeatedly as they can frustrate the Banamex but they've did concede on Friday that they actually have to write the letter we what can they do shield of putting the second class stamp on it vish and in this case it seemed that the plan was we're going to come up with this wacky to boarders sort of idea put it to the Europeans though rejected whatever chat on the phone to Angela planned but every time you see the plan it's always very very poor in the latest one is road queen basically just want a queen wants to try and get rid of me even in the confidence vote he nine so I didn't know much about the technical process of creating coinage and let the point at which it's too late to go back and forth I am disappointed in you all sorts of rumors this week one that he'll put the lesser in an earlier than the Merle expecting because some parliamentarians power and and lots of remains falling into the trap of thinking Oh victory here there's there's separation between you know the racist and wheel appears vote leaves these very moderates and calm people that can appeal to the breaking point again abortions once and coming one that's how they will get a huge majority there's also some uncertainty I think he'll he'll go really early he'll put the Lester and really and then he could even resign and then the food usually the as it is for the for the UK because UK's made up a bunch of different nation states course a complex geographical area so she probably would have said something alien his voice I mean you look at the content of what of what was being said do you think of course it seems completely reasonable just kind of compensation would be that you know it's a for instance us it's not the same for Germany point but none of this none of this is actually sort of legal consumption within the world of parliament is therefore consumption outside Russell number was was voted to do we have any more ideas on how they think they might might try to frustrate the ban act and well there's been June remaining six to support to show first up blame makes a man think things over and maybe it doesn't Johnson McLeod a phone call on Monday after each number ten basically cummings rushed out and extra necessarily have to be the permanent stories executive but it certainly has to be an on it's going to have majority support okay well a at what point do we give him on the nineteenth to submissive at by five pm to we have to leave it until twenty three fifty nine to try and force them to do it beforehand second top one was that they liked it because the May deal had been approved by Europe and this one hasn't it ranked so they considered better site reasons in the top one was that they trust Boris Johnson more because he's more authentic brexit too but the sleeved or e you face cover yesterday I repeat the word exactly but had a picture under Andrew McCall and it was we didn't win to notice unconstitional from pages isn't it let's be revolted in block capitals Brussel says no I you know Johnston companies basically is banking on a kind of visceral xenophobic bunch we saw this replicated we saw the the game theory about the chicken you know the game of chicken ways all team within Downing Street than he may have undisputed is the amazing plan that was gonna make all melt do you think it was the improvising is your last sick Dome Dome with the thing is that every time there's basic I think it's it comes down to Dominic Cummings having half read two books about Game Theory ten years ago thinking he understands it because we sold now from whom to SG can accept lesser yeah and I think it's a the exact phrasing but it's may have something in everyone getting excited and it leaks out there and they basically better tested via twitter and suddenly every lawyer says don't be need eighteen days kicks in and it puts huge pressure than Jeremy Kuban to not try and cooler general election or go for that and that's exactly what Jackie goes and he's now trying to apply the prisoner's dilemma which says that if you offer inducements you can divide people so that's what they're doing with members and possible opponents parliament you know courts the EU or and found out it doesn't work in an on binary scenario so you which just about goes to show everything you need to know about this whole cluster fuck Schrodinger office yeah it is I mean party and leave to e but I just think it's nonsense because that's exactly what they did in two thousand sixteen perfectly frame to say yeah we'll let leave to appeal to the xenophobe as a kind of a relevant authority but then there's a subplot saying and last authority has consensus behind you don't the prisoner's dilemma division of offering inducements to people to take a plea bargain absolutely relies on the prisoners being unable to negotiate the I two slightly disagree with both in the near me not in their analysis they are not a S- perfectly right but I just think there isn't a plan Ed Role Save Time Order your new Nashville hot brisket on the firehouse subs zapped today firehouse subs enjoy more subs- save more lives participating locations limited time only a you're meant to rip off the steering wheel throat out the window and then your opponent has no choice but to swerve and he tried to apply this to a situation where we're driving against ten so it that's a little bit unclear I haven't heard any more about this than that really Alex you're amused at the weekend by the opinion poll which said that Johnson's proposed deal is three times more popular amongst breakfast is than maize was even though it's ninety nine point nine percent identical the key reason they liked it was that it is unacceptable to the yeah they were asked it and come up with one answer so I don't understand how he thinks he can affect that but that is he doesn't he knows ECON I don't think there is a plan I think I think it's Nikki Dacosta in an office somewhere at the back of Downing Street looking up ancient fucking precedents going ooh a Richard Haass's perfectly happy for that kind of propaganda going out and say it's all part of this this narrative of of of shoeing their couvert classic dom data saying Ou if you if you support an extension you'll go to the bottom of the queue they negotiate as a block that's the whole point of the year the at that went where can they go all right I'll have a welshman drove some sheep across London Bridge then it would be an eagle that kind of thing yeah I mean it's I think it's that bad date with each other a neighbor to communicate to signal this Reggie the EU twenty seven we'll get in a fucking room and chat about there's no to bottom and top of the queue when they negotiate a deal it will be as a one block Saito knew what they're talking about I genuinely lethal blog posts did make the syntax cadences were all the same you can tell there's something about the words he uses as well he three players had quite a bit you can always tell when it's him is not for the consumption of the this is to go into the spectator this just to go into the Telegraph I'm working does I'm not sure he does I think he may be a bona fide this is about hostile Irish bossy Com continentals to win what we consider to be like a moral victory illness yeah I is cool stuff and we'll sister this run getting postcode wrongly Wa- all the all the you know again the second split Flab to to the EU Europe on the line is the lexi brain genius we know that much but I remember when he was writing in the spectator actually under a byline after referendum essentially him writing and he it did who got lucky a couple of times and is now seen as a genius until the whole thing folds apart Hutto with him isn't it because he's obviously not this huge point he was someone oppositions trembled before and thought Oh he's involved with we we've lost professor fell said trying to consolidate believe vote whether it's the Brexit party vo or people within the Conservative Party and on that basis what they wanted to satisfy those voters through rhetoric and through policy get him to come out for Radka he's he's doing an analysis of what this guy would be thinking if he was dominic cummings so he's payments refusing to allow us to leave that actually that victim status chimes more strongly with the coal votes than saying he got brexit Donna dusted yeah but that's not political consultants of their genius is until they're not whereas Lynton crosby today he was a genius all the way up until Zac Goldsmith design purpose at a professor. Bu Lord Bristol has long been saying that the case of this is that they actually don't care about brexit they care about power an thwarted Brexit auster London campaign and then the seventeen may election where is he now I know but the point is he was an unbeatable genius up to that today the is Europe EU nationals and migrants from on on once they're no longer the big bad wolf I think it turns Crapton the bird trap for the site of the next parliamentary session actually serves the conception staying in power more than actually delivering brexit would we think about that now that obviously entails drawn drive towards brexit if it was to to happen and everything goes catastrophically wrong which frankly is a very likely outcome of it happening especially under then there's a police do read it it's almost completely misunderstood it anyway just quickly look forward the lie because then it just becomes part of the wash it just becomes part of the debate and the truth is important he does seem like he's I think he's a complete idiot it's some sort of like you know basically sort of high school chess tournament that's the sort of level that he's operating on I think that's probably the right word is neither an idiot definitely not a they would just find someone else to blame I think it's shortsighted thing that they've only got one object to blame they always find some not often been my fear of I think that it it cements that air opponent victim status it creates the enemy is trapping those that's that's you know movin half of it back so it was like he didn't know you know what I mean I'm not suggesting that you have to be particularly intelligent to understand that he did actually know that and nevertheless shops by amnesty electric's Oth- rows day but you've done it I don't really by by the dichotomy because they think their political survival is based on just obviously we got the the first time since the Second World War whatever since the Falcons crisis sitting on Saturday coming up it's all going to go squeaky boomtime thank you and so the saw attitude you have like a really superficial understanding of how the EU operates what people's incentives are the proper way client deposits make the most of these special festive occasion he put out the cookies for Father Brexit and they're still there in the moment king that evening party decisions now for October the thirty first so they can properly celebrate no brexit day to Brexit Day so far I didn't think people have condone the level of Jason's rhetoric against Labor at the moment I still you know it's unhelpful and it's not in the cloud of spirit that we need to be you know united ax on the Liberal Democrats over tribal nonsense because it's it's not in the Liberal Democrats gift uh-huh chickpeas for the next six months forever Ooh meanwhile galaxy far far away the death star is almost within do we around the table think that Britain is leaving the yield on the thirty first of October Narda not until that'll be that people should stop me to create a canoe with Jeremy Irons leader even I it's not like everyone else agrees that should happen and we're just waiting for those nineteen votes from the Lib Dem's to come over and then we've got it as Winston could be like fine we'll accept Jeremy's in a PM caretaker pm it still isn't happening right you've still got the twenty one what's happening is that they're going to talk about all of the things that it could do on the times bond with which it would do it the time limited -ness of it that it would be paraphrase usually Philip Babur is what what do you mean they'll go to an election or they weren't good because if they don't go to an election they just don't have the rights to do and they just need the bride over yeah so that's suits the new to do what we could do they well so I think is that even people who aren't white and and that's how it continues I'm GonNa Post Phil Surpluses Threat on all social media networks because obviously the shore up completely misrepresented what he said holy depressing of course they didn't agree on who would be a caretaker pm but they were making strides on other fronts and continuing to talk to each other Hughley for the purposes of securing on delivering a referendum followed by a general election in not order within a timeframe of say they haven't come down the chimney and I can I tell you my party you'll beating a lot of chickpeas ten kilo sack yeah show me the numbers I think there's a lot of what going on for them to talk about okay what would you do so that's hockey lead sake. PM Vetos could some of the others however such as I think they're trying to get to the stage of if we can agree ninety five percent of it and just leave out the in June Who Do which rolls what SORTA vetos could be put in place so in order to accept Jeremy Corbyn the good thing I am I right okay well I've got a few business one I think the other MP's possibly and that's why I think some of the some of the language needs to be softened and toned down slightly and we also mustn't underestimate uh-huh labor the LIP DABS pay pay as far away as ever on Monday they can't decide when Johnson at or who should replace him as head of the Magical Imaginary Gnu off what's happening the there were the Opposition leader talks again this week the news that wasn't and he would actually lead thing right there yes she's a crack on with it or should they the wives of Akbar it's a trap on Fox escape pod inside the escape pod it's a common enemy of Johnson I also think that being branded as the blocker for mathematically accurate should just take steps the rebel alliance still can't get its act together who will get to run the fabled government of national unity even ever happens big party in the forest where the walks once brexit has been blades the whom those seats mind totally abhorrent and very very reliant on doubling quadrupling even the number of MP the psychological effect for having been burned buying relation and she was three or four years brexit voters why on earth would he want to be the person seen as getting into number ten via the back door and signing the Lib corn marginals so electorally disastrous to try and position yourself as somebody who is delivering a Prime Minister a commitment by doing that so I if you mean the the electro capital you know if political koksal in terms of the bridge building between ago that the suffered a complete collapse because they were seen as going into that was labor Ding job whether in the navy why nurse would cobain wanted this is the part I've never actually understood would it not be moved you know in a statesmanlike way I as you know for the good of the country I'm stepping aside so that Margaret You'd by being captain sensible over the summer and I it well what you think about the political science of it so she needs to Renault totally fallout so by being not news by beings so kind of hardcore about it is supposed to be burning a lot of political capital she's occur didn't to include does really bankers because the usual movement is that as some options appear on one side options crimen bringing Hammond sure as hell isn't going to bring the large numbers of conservatism that we sort of stuff I mean I don't necessarily other than being entrenched in tribal way of saying no it's our guy because actually put politically it makes much more sense for him to say here we are the sensible people in the middle saying that it'll be a democratic decision for voters and just look at what Dem's if you stand in the middle of the road you will get drop-off in the other but this has just been yanked wide-open elastic elastic over to sixty seven now yes support for him to keep himself if I use this position of relative neutrality and and he thinks he can still appeal to some traditional Labor doing this podcast that it would be ever termed away but it's interesting that the overton window this issue hasn't so much been dragged to one side as Yang's widen packet I was waiting for you to get to the point of who it would be if you're saying that it would be to offer it to good to know of really spending the whole you extreme conservatives that want an extreme version of rex set you've got extremely dems who just WANNA tear up democracy in revoke even though you said you want to leave in you know you have the air of the rebel scum what's going on what were the Guinea Yeah I mean it's just it seems to be circular negotiate your release the uh-huh potentially potentially but I mean I I just he he will have gone health has had some technocratic figure from another Labor MP this has been a forty year struggle fool them and they're not gonNA concede it back to the very people they've been fighting yeah for based in both directions by the people who is very proposal in a respected professor accountant or do you know what I'm GonNa can't they will go to a figure from from outwith politics and say the request for an extension referendum whatever why wouldn't he want to be kept pure as it were keep his powder dry for the next day I don't get it lean for prime minister he will the hat and now he's just certainly I am I am they're raised with power drunkenness. You're very skeptical of the whole thing the election anyway but then I think why would we even do this exact because once let's say we're past October thirty first right so the threat of no deal has been taken off the table for now outside politics because that is the more continental way that in time clothing a national unity they will go to some completion yes that's the point it's a technical problem that needs a practical solution he'll pitching on you I am look at the moment this debate is sort of almost neutralized because until we know how long the extension that the EU offers is we're not going to really know what's going to be happening on our end so it's now will be having the referendum without having to the countries to secure it with the idea of hosting it now I'm not strongly how to view but it does make me feel a little bit we make it shorter that's a new development it certainly won't be longer than June because the new seventeen year financial window but then this is a definite cutoff cummings is attempt to portray you as undemocratic sort of threat to the world of the people by forming a government that hasn't been voted for that doesn't wait for me to go either and then I have this stuff but which I feel less strongly about but does concern me a bit about the idea of a referendum without an electoral mandate holding it just nervous and it does I think you have to keep on thinking what does my opponent hope would do what would make his argument and on that basis on Yuri it's completely different situation we're into if it's June right in terms of referendums in terms of elections in terms of the maneuvering so first of all just sort of thing going into an election why would sort of nine point why would it be make any sense to have the election that way after you've assisted in if this were united pr election I would say absolutely go for it put it to the people at the people choose but the point is it's not the thing that would dictate the kind of response that we have the second one is incredibly tedious because it's quite obvious what the right thing is to do in this scenario just like first of all he's the leader of the opposition as a lot of accounting I can't agree with that for the very simple region reason that I think I passed the post skews the electoral maths as vote how does remain a tiny plan supports neoliberal economics vote in general election Tony Blair saying do them both on the same day as Lee he gets the first goal I mean of course he does not agree but it just by virtue of political reality of course he gets to I go and if that then you would try someone else and if you get to the end of the day doing ahead of an election seems to me that it would play into that narrative much more strongly than if he did it on the other side of election I in the electoral math is massively skewed eighty by first-past-the-post and be by the fact that parties can effectively talking about it until we've got an idea of how long the next stage we're lost it could even be shorted in January there's nothing to fucking guys over there so pissed off the boat use the candidates they put up in safe seats so if the Conservatives decide to put up a slate of really obediently Brexit MP's which I think is that truly undemocratic Situation Hang to go you know how does how does it Brexit ah that wants to nationalize railway you have the general election on the referendum on the same day so then people can say well I can't vote for Kuban but I can't vote for remaining in the US take my my concern is about the democratic legitimacy of the referendum in terms of a clear win so I think it's not great for two seven hundred sixty four has case tonight and then turn out and I think that you could end up in a situation where the boycott of a referendum and then a vastly reduced turnout on another referendum and then again it doesn't go away so I we need sixty forty I don't think fifty to forty eight the other way is going to resolve anything and it'd be great for the cost because we'll just beside her the general election even on the post I share all of your visa process to post the moment I mean there are some areas which sort of doesn't look too shabby everybody lose and I don't think that's the case but I'm not scared of a general action I'm just saying that it is likely to not produce a resolution stay up in although seeds then there is a very high probability that you will end up with generic mandate for an ideal brexit Nelia the canoe yeah yeah I don't I don't really get what the fuck were just someone who told me I mean first of all it seems to me Defra Cetinje the degree of competence in Downing Street about how they would win is misplaced I think in some of the analysis now looks the way in which would have remained seats we had the referendum for Brexit. I mean the Tories had in that manifesto they ran and they go to majority which we weren't expecting to get in on that basis they the referendum didn't give them in the country single poll this year that has leave ahead no but we are stuck fifty three Eh d- do you know me tell them sure for four decades that's why as far as I m may have a different view on it so you think it Kenneth Clarke is more likely than hurried home in effect okay okay so I run demented looking at those are the sort of work around the podium I don't lack much confidence in the election you would be a madman view be but that doesn't does not fit with the for the money against the fee doesn't take a belief in a technocratic solutions is very much a last bunches I ends put fucking money down in any direction on the way the election goes it's going to be tough and a lot of it's GonNa come down to touch screen voting and the kind of volatility that a campaign involves but I I'm I'm close probably to ends position just the I think we do need to resolve something through general action host of the good talked about the three hundred fifty million stuff during the campaign and when he talked about the figure he spent there's a bit in that specific he says he's a matter of fact we get you know a problem and I think Johnson should be allowed to go to the country and say vote for an ideal brexit and I will give you seventy billion for policemen and don't feel particularly pessimistic about it and I certainly think when Cummings puts out those statements it's an election day hate parliament you're going to get right tweeting that is meant to make us feel as if we would okay I mean for instance as you were just saying you know lots of limb don't lose them votes are anyway in seats where Labor doesn't figure in the first place the SNP obviously sort of earning vary yeah they did for a short while twenty fifteen hundred seventeen now twenty window right and so that I mean that's there it's ten ten points today in the poll of polls your you know I'm I'm telling you know forty seven fifty three and other she gave it to Billy Bragg somebody that you you there's an absence of clean I understand but we have a we have a technical off and Boris commits himself to know deal brexit which from the briefing coming out looks likely I think that question to hospitals we know but the point is that's a dishonest paper for refuge then Napa know how how participating enough auto part stores while supplies last minimum three items exclusions apply offer instant thirty one nineteen in Canada plus ever deal happens we'll be subject to eradicate which is that's that's the thing that needs to go forward reaching an economic change to just do it on the basis of a thirty five percent win an election so you're to leave you have sixty seconds to tell us what the Lisbon Treaty really is why people should shut up about it starting now should necessarily shut up about it it's quite an interesting topic and now a short musical excellent right after Anthony although the name article fifty four it features the voices are galaxy of stars from the Brexit mass from Theresa May and Boris Johnson James O'Brien and it's quite good a very authentic recorded this podcast a remarkable came to our attention a brexit disco concept album friend of the show Rhodri Marsden calories have recorded the hustle brexit discourse the practical thing that would actually solve this would be for parliament to get together and agree by an overwhelming majority now that what the minute in which to reduce it to send us Andrel this week it's ten and he gets popular leave a book by the Lisbon Treaty which talked about awful lot on leave twitter people say things like that s that is also one of the dangers isn't it of doing it before an election there's no deal to put down on about a pep whereas if you were to do it after not action or rather through unanimity so some changes dabid nothing to be particularly concerned about the irony

Nashville firehouse subs Brexit auster Conservative Party Dominic Cummings Manchester Lord Bristol London fifty years ninety five percent thirty five percent seventeen year eighteen days sixty seconds four decades fourteen day nine percent five weeks forty year four years
Boris big Brexit proposal and are the Tories ready for an election?

FT Politics

31:51 min | 10 months ago

Boris big Brexit proposal and are the Tories ready for an election?

"This Financial Times podcast is supported by capital. One capital one is building a better bank one that feels and acts nothing like typical bank. It's why they're reimagining banking making and building something completely different they offer accounts with no fiercer minimums the also offer one of the best savings rates in America and you can open a capital one account from anywhere in in five minutes capital one. This is banking reimagined open an account today. Inexperience banking reimagined for yourself capital one. What's in your wallet capital. One a welcome to politics a weekly discussion on what's happening in Westminster the Financial Times. I'm in pain in this episode will be discussing Bush Johnson's big new brexit proposals to resolve the Irish border backstop whether it has any chance of flying with EU if there is any chance for deal on the horizon before October thirty first plus who looking back at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester. The voice is keynote speech on how ready the party is for general election. I'm delighted to be joined by our political editor. George Polka Buick Chief Sam Fleming columnist Robert Shrimps and deputy editor on the Green. Thank you for joining and if you find yourself liking this episode of ethnic politics you know what to do these a positive review or subscribe to receive it every Saturday morning. Just as the Conservative Party conference wrapped up on Wednesday afternoon. Polish Johnson wrote a letter to John Claude Janka with his proposals for placing tricky Irish border backstop insurance policy. This is the thing the armistice things holding up his brexit deal getting through the House of Commons Downing Street has been quietly working on the plans full weeks which essentially to place the boxed up with two soft borders instead of the prospect of what heart border on the island of Ireland at home the proposal received well well by Brexit tests on some politicians from Northern Ireland but it received a frosty response from the EU raising the prospect at the plan is dead on arrival and Britain is once again and something towards an audio brexit George. Let's begin with these proposed which are not the easiest things in the world to understand they were released pretty much as soon as Johnson finished addressing addressing the Tory conference on a Wednesday in a letter to the president of the European Commission and a detailed policy paper and the legal text which we have not yet seen takes through. This is all all about well. The first thing to say is this doesn't change so most of Theresa May's Day over three times by the House of Commons still stands thirty nine billion pounds exit bill citizen's Rights Transition Fission period possibly lasting until twenty two are all still that this focuses exclusively on the so-called Irish boxed up this idea that trees are may have to the whole of the UK would stay in the the customs union for a period to avoid any sort of border in Ireland and as you say is replaced no border at island on the customs union proposal with two types of border. I A regulatory battery border the whole of Ireland including Northern Ireland the island of Ireland will be part of a single regulatory zone covering manufactured goods agricultural food that would throw up a regulatory border order in the Irish sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK and secondly most controversial it proposes that Northern Ireland must remain part of the UK for customs purposes that means they will be for the first time in many years a customs border but in Northern Ireland and the republic and that is the radio the big sticking point as we go and the way the Downing Street a pitching this idea George to say that look we all leaving the customs union which is something that tweets May said but then recanted on a bit while she was trying to make some headway with brexit and this very convoluted should I do to borders is allowing the UK to leave the customs union while avoiding the prospect of customs posts along that border between the public violent and Northern Ireland correct so I mean basically there will be a customs border between the two territories between the UK and the European Union but police Johnston insists you can do that without having some where the peaked cap and stripy poll on the border or indeed need any kind of physical inspection post whatsoever so he suggests that the inspections can be done in factories along the supply chain with few random spot checks of lorries and all the rest of it. This is Frankie Christoph. The US heard many many times before from Theresa May's is still to alternative arrangements so-called Max factor maximum facilitation and frankly the EAVES has the technology isn't isn't available on the snow of the border in the world operates like this to Sam Fleming ever since Bush Johnson became prime minister on that pledge to not just tweak but remove the backstop stop entirely fall to his withdrawal agreement the EU has been demanded. Give us some proposals. Give us some legal texts and we know that there's been lots of things going on behind the scenes at an official level but this was a big moment in Brexit and no matter how much you can criticize the proposals themselves. She'll get onto in the moment at least this looks like a a serious offer form the Johnson government that does have some legal weight behind it. That's right. I mean we had for many weeks now officially called negotiations but really haven't I've been negotiations between David Frost and his negotiating team for the UK and the European Commission on the other hand the reason for that is because the UK has been unwilling to put forward what the EU legally operable texts actual text that you can use the tun into proper binding legal agreements to replace what Theresa may negotiated with the so you all that time ago instead you've had the UK putting forward what known as non papers which are very brief documents containing concepts not actual proposals and really a complete standoff between the two sides because of a lack of tangible proposals to work with what we had this week on Wednesday was something more substantive. We had a less from the prime minister I putting forward his proposals plus some legal texts now the legal text itself has been put to the commission but is not being released to individual member states which is getting people's backs except back here but the UK really wants to keep this quite tight as it begins to sit down and negotiate with the e U Now. There are reasons on this side for some optimism on the EU side one possible reason is that Boris Johnson in his letter to John called. Janka said that this is a landing zone that he's proposing a deal could take shape within this area so he's not suggesting to take it'll leave it proposal and that means there is something at least for the two sides to sit down and negotiate the other big step forward was the willingness of the UK to keep Northern Ireland for at least for a period within the single market rules and therefore reduce the potential barriers that could be erected on the violent when it comes to product regulation only the realm of agriculture and food but also in manufactured goods that was welcomed on the east side however as Georges odors mentioned there are some massive problems with proposals well and one thing that Sam mentioned that George is whether this is the final offer because when this first emerged the signs getting from Downing Downing Street is that putting this forward and this take it or leave it proposal that we could tweak it around the edges and if you don't like it and if they hadn't had good signs in EU by the weekend then that's it we're full oh steam ahead towards no deal but then there was a bit of pulling back from that with other people down as she sang in fact as psalm this a landing zone. This is the beginning of negotiations his even though those negotiations have stuttering number ten is willing to negotiate and I guess this is the question now because the EU has been frosty. I believe is how often ofund page described it and how they received these proposals. The question is where does it go from here. Well that's right. I think there was a view that the the press team and number ten of the Forty Foreign Oren saying this was the the final offer and as you mentioned this is talking about a broad landing zone and in the House of Commons this week he was consistently pressed on whether this was a fine law for for Andy whether it was a starting point for negotiations and Boris Johnson refused to say whether this was indeed the final offer so the implication is that there is room for maneuver but the UK says thirty thirty two red lines on this first of all Northern Ireland must in all circumstances leave the U. Customs Union is part of the deal and the second thing is we haven't discussed. This is the point of consent incense. This idea that the northern assembly in Stormont should have give its consent to these new arrangements particularly relating to this idea of single e rulebook covering the whole of the island of Ireland. They say that's nonnegotiable but it's important to say that Boris Johnson I think is still extremely anxious about getting a deal and he is prepared to move a bit further up some tell us where the has problems with this because from the UK PSI this gives Bush on some what he wants. He wants a deal. He wants to be out of the customs union and he doesn't want to have a heart board. That's the aims from the UK side from the EU side. The seem to be these big questions about the ability of this thing and crucially seems is to go against one of those red lines which is that would be no new customs checks on the island of Ireland. Now boasts Johnson has tried to renege on that commitment to his made back in December twenty eighty seventeen that seems to be the big sticking point of all this on the customer side this is a profound as far as the US consent profound breach from what the UK previously asleep pledged as you as you say and what they're concerned about is that but the erection of this new customs border would massively disrupt trade north and South this is not a right now it runs very smoothly because of the minimal nature of that border but that would change that would have to be very complex procedures on both sides of the border in terms of goods declarations declarations and so on there'd be tariffs which would need to be paid. VAT would come into the difference. Differentials and excise would come into into the into play as well in terms of the perform that would need to be filled and effectively you're talking about there may not be checks on the physical border itself but that would have to be checks on the island of the potential for checks which could mean a very likely would mean government infrastructure where goods would have to be taken in order to be examined by inspectors which again is not what the EU is expecting getting in terms of friction lists largely friction trade on the island of Ireland the other problem so that's one problem the other problem is that the UK hasn't really spelled out much detail detail in terms of how it's new regime would take effect. There aren't anywhere else on the F- as a major trading areas like this where there's no physical destruction the border order but heavy use of electronic means for declaring goods paying fees and also checks away from the border either on premises of traders of of commercial companies or indeed in inspection posts away from the border which are owned by the government so the UK has a pretty big burden explaining how this might work and so so far it doesn't appear from the proposal tabled that there's enough detail in terms of how this would actually work there is a willingness on the UK to work at this during the transition period but that is not something that the EU is willing to sign up to it wants to see exactly how this word from day one and in case as we need to remind people. There isn't much time to work this stuff out. We have less than a month till the thirty first of October so they're trying to develop in a very short space of time radical new customs regime which is seen nowhere else on us and this is the big problem that the e GonNa have with these proposals which why you're already beginning to hear from some parts of Europe. Skepticism puts to put it mildly to this even could be a launching pad to a new deal on brexit well. This is the question for both of you. I George is we know. The basis aces of this deal are now where is the room for maneuver on both sides because the landing zone for this to us the night technical is pretty small because while the EU have been unfussy they've not dismissed out of hand which we know people in down the street with delighted by because they were worried that Dublin and other capitals would have just said no this is not acceptable which they have have done in the past the boss Johnson's Brexit's ideas they did say let's at least have some more informal talks about this but the key thing is when boys announced this it had the immediate support. Ford of two important groups won the the European research group of US skeptics in those people who kept voting down every brexit dot's a maple back and when it came to the third third vote the group split with about thirty or so MP's voting against it and the others still backed it but all of that group so far even the most hardline exits people like John John Redwood the Paleo skeptics have said they would back it and the other group that back there is the Democrat Unionist Party who notionally pup Bush Johnson's government but Davos a crucial both is a canary signed for the skeptics but also just basic palm numbers to get through and if you're going to have to start nudging and compromising omits to address them in the point point some just made he risks losing them so it's all very very tight does extremely tightened. I think maybe we should move away from the some of the technical stuff because Sam said it looks only some bridgeable the idea that the customs question particular because if the UK insists on taking the Northern Ireland out of the customs union that border has got to be managed and so for the UK hasn't come up with from the point of view applause boy managing the border but I think there's a much bigger strategic question that the EU now has to answer which is do they want to in any anyway engaged with us and try to get a deal in the next couple of weeks and bring at least the first phase of brexit agony to an end the biggest Johnson as you say sub compulsively say to them look if you give us a deal that accepted my proposals I can get it through the House of Commons the big question facing the EU is do they want to go for a deal. Now or more likely I suspect say if we don't give Boris Johnson the deal because what he's offering is just not good enough we can then force the prime minister's to seek an extension to the brexit process after that there will be a general election or second referendum a friend either of which might produce a government which is slightly more to our liking or in the case of a second referendum who knows possibly the possibility of reverse of the original leaf votes that is going to he's very tempting. There'll be a lot of people in the UK Political Establishment Light Tony Blair light dominic grieve former Tory attorney general saying pro sports Johnson to the edge and we can change the because of Brexit the line from tennis quite the opposite which is if you do that burst Johnson will be forced to run a very hard line election campaign while he'll be running against against the judges against parliament against the European Union and to fend off the threats of Nigel farage and is brexit party. He'll have to take a very tough line on brexit possibly standing. We're GONNA not platform so the person you might get back as prime minister in a couple of months time went. Nice Boris that we've seen a bit of this week but Nasty Boris and Sam what do you think a- any room for maneuver on this both practically and politically on the east side clearly. They're willing to sit down and talk a they need to be seen to be talking. No one wants to be blamed for the no deal brexit. No one wants to be painted. Neither side wants to be painted as being intransigent both sides highly incentivize right now to appear to be rolling up this season sitting down but in terms of the the basic red line that Boris Johnson put down what she wants to remove Northern Ireland from the customs union and keep it in the UK Customs Union which necessitates a border and checks customs checks on the island of Ireland that is a fundamental problem for the EU and it's very difficult to see how how they get around it now you can hear people already talking once again over the side about the idea of a Northern Ireland and the backstop which was the original version of the backstop before it was was moved to an all UK backstop in the later it's rations of Theresa May's unsuccessful negotiations. There's been talk of some sort of time limit on that backstop as being one way a of satisfying at least partly some of the concerns that you'll hear on the UK and Unionist side about such a such a development but we're a really long way away from that's tall idea and so it is quite hard right now frankly to see this notorious landing zone. Boris Johnson has said is is within sight at least in his letter Janka. The sense of what you're saying Sam is that there really isn't any oil much possibility of getting a new deal done and dusted and signed off at the next council meeting on the nineteenth of October and it does really seem to feed as if once again we are not going to believe in the EU October thirty first and one thing I was wondering is is there any any chance that you could unilaterally just say look. There's no deal we don't want no deal. Here's one last extension which we know. Labor the Liberal Democrats the SMP want because as if they just come out and offer that then it makes it a lot harder for Boris Johnson to dodge the ban act which forces him to a question of the delay well. You'll certainly beginning to here in Brussels. There's a lot more discussion about the extension. People are beginning to ask what sort of conditions might be attached to that extension so I think that dialogue is beginning to move back tolls focusing on what an extension might look like and what might the conditions and circumstances which will give rise to that extension even the idea of getting a deal before the thirty first of October so say for some reason the UK actually did decide that it was willing to move quite radically back towards northern either than the backstop which were then officer be greeted by the EU side and that could pave the way to a deal in quite short order even then you hear some people saying that would still require a technical extension and to do all the legal work which is involved in drafting that up and that will be in a sense an office shelf onset to this standoff because an old Nandana backstop out. She was drafted up last year but we're not there tool what we're talking about is a radical regime as I said being put forward by the UK which will require enormous amounts of legal work to understand to make an and for the both sides decide whether it could actually be operable and we're talking about days in which to do it so we really are starting to look much more towards the extension debate and then when you start thinking about that the EU has its own timetable to because it's trying to finalize its next big long funding round which runs runs from twenty twenty one for seven years after the longer they're unsure about whether the U K will be in your how long it'll be in the EU the longer they're unsure sure about the budgetary implications because the UK is a massive member of the EU with Bush makes a very large contribution to its budget so holdups and quite vital business on the east side as well so there are quite a lot of considerations attached to the extension. It's lengthened the terms attached to it as well which we haven't even started debate but it certainly is the case you're hearing the word extension quite a lot of the moment and George if you listen very carefully privately from Downing Street. You're beginning to hear that same word as well the even though Bosh Johnson devoted voted his conference a tub thumping references of we are leaving into get brexit done there. Is this growing sense that actually in fact an extension will be imposed on Boris Johnson either by the colts by parliament you name it and he's not going to resign. I think not as true. That's the sense of from people number ten this week but that if there's an extension attention he will oh so reluctant the end up coming to accept it then have an election rally against the establishment as you've said and that will probably work for his message quite well but this idea eh that we're leaving October. Thirty first really does seem to be receding after the events of this week. I've never thought it was all that lightly. We believe the thirty first votes. I'd rather that we didn't believe this this conversation for quite a while but now I think it's looking a lot less likely and as you say there is now a law of the land saying that we can't leave without a deal. I I suspect we'll challenge that in the High Court. I expect he'll take it to the Supreme Court where he doesn't seem to have all that many friends at the moment he'll probably lose then he'll get some poor sap in the civil service to go over and sign the act of surrenders stories would see us an aspirin extension and then the radically lease were into a general election period provided of course the Labor Party has the nerve to go with it because the situation Labor Party could face a very very very difficult opponent and Boris Johnson at the Tribune of the people against this but before all of that breaks fun it was the Tories term the annual gathering in Manchester it was Boris Johnson's first conference as party leader and is someone who the grassroots long left he national seemed a very warm reception when he lived at his keynote speech on Wednesday which went down well in the hall but was curiously lacking in any major new policy announcements to what's the commerce. Tell us about Web Oasis how the parties giving up general election so Robert Shrimps. You don't want to ask which number Tory conference. This is that you've been to but the message of this one was very clear. Get brexit. Don and it was very much a rally behind boys. I'm behind breaks it. It was a curious conferences. These things go because the activists you right. There were very much united gotcha behind him. They were happy as I've he's the they'd been waiting to scratch and now they've got him but they also know that. There are an appear to spend animation. They're waiting for the events that are coming this disagree of trepidation because this election game to be difficult. Many of them will representing areas that are going to be tough to hold so you had that sense of nervousness crikey. What's coming next having said which you also had a pretty united conference? There wasn't a lot of rebellion on the fringes. There was some pretty clear messaging as you said not only get brexit done but then the investment in schools police and hospitals you very much had the notion of a policy that knew what it's pitches gang to be what it's got to say and he's is also quite prepared to splash the cash investment that proposing his substantial sergeant jeff from his businesses. There's been lots of money paying their staff more than national minimum wage. This is supposedly in spending in campaigning mood and it felt right for them. Miranda Green Ho conference reminded me of that old Lynton crosby the Tory election strategists slogan which is getting Bamako's off the boat because the whole thing was very very disciplined in terms of message. Nobody went off-message even on you to the barnacles. All the boats at the moment well indeed but on the fringes winge is even the brakes was pretty united which is we're. GonNa Leave. At the end of October as we were just saying that may not happen but nobody was read dissented on either Policy Ooh brexit terms and it's amazing that you know boys proposing some pretty major compromise on brexit yet everybody except them and on spending as well it was proposing huge amounts amounts of new cash and the other fiscal conservative standing up saying hang on a minute is this the best use of public funds well. That might be the problem in the long-term Conservative Party. The conference is a different beast to the other two conscious that precede of course because it's not a decision making body whether kind of exercises in Party democracy all proper debates about policy so it's only ever kind of storefront for what the Tory party things is offering and clearly if we think there's an election a few weeks. That's what they needed needed it to be in spades. I think that the one dissenting voice thought I would sort of raise about how well it went in terms of unity of Message Walls Wolf Pretty Patel speech because this was a very very hard line anti immigration speech and for those who are worried about the source of Brexit that's coming coming worried about the role of the Home Office in enforcing restrictions on freedom of movement and even on what they're going to impose conditions on e. citizens in the UK. This is the sort of sound bite. The skies non tores okay for all that I agree with robots version of what was said particularly on the spending this idea that they are putting so much emphasis into those labor areas in the northern the midland traditionally Labor but they think that if they invest vested infrastructure if they talk a lot about public services housing etc they can sort of bring them onside. That's clearly the strategy but there's still the overtones of the brexit messaging and the brexit reality which gang to scare away a lot of moderate voters an I think that the pre-election strategy that you're seeing played out has a lot of optimism not just in terms of kind of mood music but overall optimism about what they can actually do on the ground. Without Pretty Patel Speech Dimension Robert is in some ways the classic thing you often get into a conference the hang on flog him kick him out speeches. Some people referred to as West you taking on immigration a tough line on crime and talking about giving nanny every police officer in the country tasers and again it goes back to her message career. Criminals should fear fear is what she has set and the calculation of Mister Johnson's Johnson team to reflect the opposite Mabel Manda was saying is that the public are much to the Vite of the Westminster Metropolitan Consensus. If you like on crime in fact thousand of does go down quite well probably not going to go down well with some floating voters saying Liberal Democrat marginals. I think that's right. I sat in the whole for Pretty Patel speech and I I have to say I've been in uglier holes in the Conservative Party conference relative. Yes regrettably agree with Miranda because although I share your critique of it. I think that they've put themselves where they won't be and where they think they need to be on crime Lord. There's never lot votes lost by being tough on crime and seeming tougher on on crime than anybody else and I think some of the messages and messaging has been very strong on some of the tweets. We're going to smash the county lines. Drug gangs great if it was that easy. Why haven't you done already but I think part of the coalition seeking to assemble especially if we're going into an election before brexit is resolved is a different sort of center to what we think covers being the one between the Conservatives and the Labour Party and I think for the people that getting off they may not have pitched it wrong on crime. But what about those other battlegrounds okay because is I get it. If you're overwhelmingly just looking at those midland's in the north seats think Johnson's team all know absolutely but there's an whole other flank which is very vulnerable honorable to them which has seats which Lib dem's could take off them and particularly if you get defective tactical voting and I wasn't so much talking about the crime messaging although what do think that going back to policies where we look more people up in prisoners sadly not where we should be going on in fact not where previous justice secretaries under the Tories have been going dying in recent years. I think it's a bad turn policy terms. I was talking about having a home secretary standing out with great joy and saying we will end freedom of movement. This is is like the May messaging on if you're a citizen of the world you're assist is enough nowhere. This reinforces the idea that the Tory party's not interested in in those molterer pro European voters and I think it's extremely questionable whether for example Boris Johnson in his speech making such efforts to be emollient and change his tone to say I mean at one point in his speech even said we're Europeans. I Love Europe and there was a kind of when the whole didn't respond at least I do for that brings us onto Bosa speech Robert which which was his first as party leader and I was in the whole for that actually sitting beside you of course and the thing about it was that June the leadership contest Boris was ferrying through Jasper. I saw him with a whole bunch of hustings and the rooms were smaller often only two thousand people with around the country and he seemed very pumped up an energized that hole in Manchester does kill any atmosphere because it's basically just an old railway station with some curtains hang format but to me it felt pretty flat actually that there was some good jokes and Khurana said he was definitely pitching towards the centigram with his message but it didn't really light up a spark in the way that some speeches by other particularly does have but others have said that it was is a great speech and they were very pleased with it wasn't a great speech. I think we can definitely agree on that. It was a perfectly okay speech. I think he's a not always entirely deserved. Served replaces being this extraordinarily public speaker. I think he's very good entertaining public speaking. I think he's not away so good. At serious long form policy speeches he was good on the steps so Downing Street on the day he won office Amazon a lot since that is really sweet short but I think part of it is that he was trying a different tone on Wednesday. I I think he didn't want to alienate e. You leaders on the day. He put his brexit offer. Thrusday has none of the brussels-bashing which the whole certainly would have enjoyed b- he is conscious. Whatever whatever he said he is aware that people think he went too far in some of his tone loss and he's tried to be bitten mullen? One of the phrase I was struck by was one where he said you know there are patriots on both both sides of the brexit debate which I've not heard him say before so that was definitely up to be a little bit more optimistic on the problem with being more optimistic as it just doesn't rouse those people as much as being really really angry and I think that's where he lost it a bit in the whole but I think it was absolutely fine as these things go leader's speech Israeli massive very much the waters close over over them very quickly and they probably closed over this already well this. Is it Miranda because I'd say the whole tone is this conference is one minister said to me was expected rather than exultant now. I think that the party is very much aware that election is coming. I think most people assume it's going to be before the end of this year. Maybe the latest early next year and that's GonNa be boys his moment to prove who've himself that we know the toy grassroots love and we know the tourism pays it behind him but he's still not been tested with the country last time was electorally test was in twenty twelve and the family different political atmosphere and a very different electorate and the message put across is designed to speak to those parts of the country tollways. Don't normally get so. It's all about spending in cash on public says it's delivering brexit and it was the whole thing was some of is I believe by him. As being a brexit he has a trying to like have more to Michael Hesseltine than Margareth over the Japan disagree somewhat on Brexit and I think that message did come across that it was an all traditional Tory stuff but you do have to wonder once we get into that election campaign. Those two things are still a lot of people quite contradictory so he ended his speech by saying. Let's get brexit dumb a unite the country both of those things are really really hard to do so. I agree with you that sort of more emollient tone those bits. We picked out all of us from the speech. It seemed to be much more reaching out to the other side. That's kind of important thing to do is a sort of correction because they had steered wildly to the right hand side of the road which they needed to come back from there earn. He personally needs to come back from that by really agree with robot. I think the whole thing felt a little bit like treading water. I'm actually everything in politics at the moment feels like treading water aww because no decisions are being taken and you can't go on for much longer being the prime minister claiming that you as he said the other day in his interview on the BBC before the speech have have been tasked by the country to do something specific when he has been untested in front of the electorate so until we actually get some sort of resolution that then put to to the country either in a referendum or election or God forbid both we don't really know what we're dealing with and we sort of inter kind of awful American pattern of permanent campaigning raining where no real decisions are made. No real policies can ever be proven successes or failures ones. I think his speech was it would have been roughly the right speech and it may be roughly the right speech if he's able to get a deal and go to the country having delivered brexit and is a deal so it's not chaotic shambolic and he's go other agendas and that speech attempt at a more inclusive tone works the problem is if he hasn't got a deal and he goes to the country fighting for Brexit and fighting about the parliament. That's betrayed the British people that turns right out the window again and got to go back to being angry and aggressive so as if it all comes back to Brexit. That's it for this week's episode. Thank you very much to George Sam Vauban Miranda for joining in the meantime. If you liked what you've heard then you know what to do find some more F. T. journalism by subscribing you you can find our latest details at F. T. Dot Com forward slash offer. Ft Politics was presented by mini Sebastian paint and produced by Caroline Grady until next time. Thanks for listening. This is Financial Times. PODCAST is supported by capital. One capital. One is building a better bank one that feels and acts nothing like typical bank. It's why they're reimagining banking king and building something completely different they offer accounts with no fiercer minimums the also offer one of the best savings rates in America and you can open a capital one account from anywhere in five five minutes capital one. This is banking reimagined open an account today inexperienced banking reimagined for yourself capital one. What's in your Wallet Capitol N._a.

Mister Johnson Brexit European Union UK Ireland Brexit Northern Ireland Boris Johnson customs union UK Robert Shrimps prime minister Conservative Party Sam Fleming George Sam Vauban Miranda Financial Times US John Claude Janka George
Boris vs Gove round two, and Trump comes to Britain

FT Politics

35:12 min | 1 year ago

Boris vs Gove round two, and Trump comes to Britain

"Capital. One is building a better Bank. One that feels nothing like a typical Bank. It's why they've reimagined banking and built something completely different Capital One. Cafes they offer checking accounts with no fees, or minimums and savings accounts with one of the best savings rates in America. This is banking reimagined with your needs in mind. Open an account today at any Capital, One location or online in five minutes, and experienced banking. Reimagined for yourself Capital One. What's in your wallet Capital, One NA member? FDIC. Welcome to politics. A wicked discussion on what's happening in Westminster from the financial times. I'm Sebastian pain in this episode. We'll be discussing the latest in the conservative party leadership contest. What my Hancock has been saying to the F T, where Michael go viz. And why boys Johnson has yet to enter the race? Plus, we'll we looked to head to Donald Trump state visit to the UK at how Theresa May's going to navigate it as a lame duck. Prime minister I'm delighted to be joined by columnist, Robert shrimps. The deputy appeared to Miranda green why to- edited James blitz and chief foreign affairs. Commentator, Gideon Rachman. Thank you, all for joining, if you find yourself liking, this episode of F, T politics, then don't forget subscribe, the all the channels to receive it every Saturday morning. We also do quite like a positive review. So the toy leadership contest is yet to full me begin, yet, all the candidates are going, and there's a lot of them that are now eleven candidates in the. Race to succeed Theresa May when she steps down as party leader on June. The seven there are five main candidates, but a lot of other people phone the hat into the ring possibly just to try and get themselves a better job in the next government, if they haven't got a particular chance of making it into downing sheep. So what should be, let's begin with the top of the race. And where all those people are the most obvious thing is that the fun is Boris Johnson still has not declared his formerly running to be prime minister, even though we've seen more pose this week that show. He is the favorite person amongst the conservative party's grassroots in this state is still looks like it's his to lose. Yes. I think that's right. And I think he's engaged in a bit of expectation management, if you look at the polls and the names of people declared for the various candidates, as you say, there are a handful of front is all around between the twenty Twenty-nine Mark Jeremy hunt. Boris Johnson, Dominic Robb, and so on. What's interesting is some of them are working. Very hold. And Boris Johnson terms of visibility is not working hard. Tool. He's having his private meetings, he's talking to MP's. He's working on the people who are going to vote in this first part of the contest. And I think he is deliberately deflating the level of support. He's got the moment. He's being advised at least unofficially by Lynton Crosby. I think there is an expectation management game gang on him whereby they want people to think, well, you know, maybe he's only got forty or fifty maybe it could be up for grabs. And actually, he's got quite a lot more in the bag is my hunch. And so, I think it absolutely is Boris Johnson's to lose. And I think it's going to be very difficult for those people who want to try and keep him off the top to going to the members, the key thing for Boris Robert is he doesn't want to be seen as the phone because that's quite a dangerous place to be in this race. Because as we've seen is a lot of candidates will go and attack them for being in that position. He doesn't want to be front, but he is to front run. I think he's probably ambivalent about this state is on the one hand he doesn't want to be the target for everybody else. On the other hand, if you can absolutely streak ahead. Then it becomes a fight for second. In place. And if he can really establish himself in the first ballot of MP's, then everyone will turn their mind to being his opponent and not fighting him anymore. Now, maranda green, this is where I think a lot of the considered property, I look in our eat of your own side, with Boris Johnson fine. But then it's the question who is going to be the candidate to beat him because this whole thing will start which down when parliament returns and the nineteen twenty two committee starts to run the rounds to choose the final two candidates. The stop boys candidate was thought to be some by Jeremy hunt. A lot of support, but he made these comments about a new deal begs, and he's really flip flopped on this issue, as seems to be hemorrhaging MP's and momentum. He does he's tried to keep both wings of the pulmonary party happy, which, as we've seen during the unhappy premiership of MRs Ma is quite a difficult thing to pull off. And also, I think he sort of failed to say anything memorable on those Jill positions. Whereas Matt Hancock the health secretary. He gave an interview to all paper this week in which he really decided to take on Boris Johnson. You know with this decision to say where Boris said, f business, I say f f business, I the conservative party's dissolves, stress movement away from being the party of enterprise. The party of the economy has to be reversed. And that's a really important message to get across. I think hunts kind of ambivalence on Brexit has been sort of eclipsed by Hancock, which is why Hancock doing quite well, I do think we'd be mad not to talk about the Michael go fuck too, though. Because this question of who can actually stop Boris. Michael gov is obviously the other person on not leave campaign platform the morning after the referendum when their way at the time looking slightly disappointed to have one but, you know, in terms of actually trying to deliver something without wrecking the economy and trying to avoid no deal wall. Keeping the Tory grassroots onside. I would take in really quite strong position there. And of course because of his time at the agriculture department, he knows the implications of no deal. And if it comes to a debate, and he's one of the front running candidates, I think, in a face off with some of the more hard line. Brexit says he'd be able to wipe the floor with them. I might even bring over very hard line Brexit to grassroots members and I think it's very early days in this race Robert, but if you have a gut feeling now if things continue, as they are, it would end up Boras versus g-o-v again, which is really where we were in twenty sixteen and what Michael go seems to have going for him, is he's an acceptable Brexit to if your remain as if you're an MP won't person comes to mind is Tom tooken hat, who is the chair of the phone affairs select committee. He's remain, but he feels you've got to have a break sitter leading the party, and he wrote this in an op-ed in the Daily Telegraph. So I think that's absolutely right. And I do think Michael was an extremely interesting figure in this because Michael, the may loyalists the payroll vote, the mo- drips through Mainers. I'm going to big decision. Nate, which is do they get hind someone who actually is persona fixation what they believe a my hand caught? Maybe even a Rory Stewart who's having a wonderful campaign, or do they get behind bricks to they think they can do business with him. That's the fundamental question. My own gut feeling is. I'm not going to have a gut feeling close seeing the votes in the first ballot. Because I think it is very hard to call one of the things to bear in mind about Tory leadership contest is that the media sees is not really the real contest. The real conscious going on very quietly amongst three hundred people already or no each other, and probably have formed quite strong, gut views about who they're going to support and one of the reasons what Boris Johnson's positions is interesting because he's working the current electorate and the current electrodes only three hundred people, you only need to have a strong media stretching strong presence outside of the three hundred. If you're trying to persuade them there's something more to you than they already thought because again. Why Rory Stewart's campaign is very interesting. He's very little visible support. He's not seeing at the moment as being a strong candidate and he got a couple of backers. I think. But he's running this extraordinarily interesting social media campaign, which people are warranting in their liking him. And I think he's got a bit of authenticity is this something more there, I think he's still very much an outside up. But that kind of structure is quite clever. If you're trying to elbow, your way into a contest among big beasts, what can I say, on the voice to appoint, which is being the one of the kind of joyful things of this contesting him, just going out and talking to people, and it's not vital thing of authenticity. He's got that a lot of people said to easy may lack a lot of other consider party slack. But there are some MP who's just think what does he have. I go. Texan one MP said, you know, I think you're overestimating how impress toy MP's all with his weird too, isn't bothering with MP's. He doesn't really understand where the party is at the moment. So it's good publicity for him and his future. Talk about his time way. He smoked opium a wedding when he was walking across the middle. Never won. But it's not really serious. No one thinks even ROY, he's going to be the next prime minister with interesting, you should say it's not serious because one of his main contentions, is that politics is become very unserious. And he wants to call out, for example, the desire to refuse to compromise on Brexit as an unserious attitude. And of course, he was more keen on Theresa May's compromise Brexit deal than she was herself didn't energetic job trying to sell it. I think you're right about the campaign. But of course, you can't forget the in this Larry Asli crowded field. You know, eleven twelve so far, maybe even more penny Morton's who hasn't yet declared decides to jump on board as well. You've got a lot of people who are also not maneuvering for the leadership of the party, but they want to be in the next cabinet is Rory Stewart for has been in the cabinet for about two and a half minutes. But he wants to stay there. So he wants to catch the eye of whoever does become leader and become a sort of symbol of something in the next administration and. I think that's true as well. Over people like kit, Malthouse. The housing minister James cleverly the Brexit minister. All these candidates, lesser known who have declared because they want to just make sure they're going to get a better job by showing some support. But they do actually have to get some MP's on that side at some points, if they run and get less than say five MP's backing them then there's gonna look bit silly. I think that's absolutely right. And I think you Miranda both rights clearly about positioning for the next cabinet among some people really want should never underestimate the self-belief politicians have in them. But I think some of these candidacies are clearly silly, they're not going to get anywhere. And one has to wonder why they are dragging out these exercise. I think what they hope is, if you are one of the tail end as it were in this contest, and you are able to get five six seven votes. You can actually deliver those votes to the lead candidate of your choice and make a difference, untraded. It's not always the case that you can deliver them. But I think that is part of the process, and maranda the timetable of how this thing is going to. So parliament comes back next week and we've obviously got the Trump stay visit as we talk about later, but the key thing is nominated open next Friday that's when to his may resigned as conservative party leader, and then they will begin the voting process, and really by the end of June. We will know who those final two are then he goes out to the membership. And I guess that was when the race really blows out into the open. We'll get dramatic changes often between those stages of the voting, you get quite interesting things happen during those votes, the runoffs where the MP's voting on who will go forward as the two candidates, the party membership. And of course, last time you ended up with Andrea leads them in may and let them decided to just throw in the towel. So it never went to the membership. I think robots right. These kind of deals that are being done off the corridors of Westminster all partly to do with, well, if I don't come in the top thrill four, then all donate my backers to your campaign cetera an- as that goes on. It will change the nature of the contest. But I think that might also be some surprises in there. I think this question of whether they can as it were stop Boris. It's very interesting. This because these leadership contest can be very, very unpredictable. Of course. Look what happened with the labor party. Jeremy cobras name was on the ballot paper to in the phrase of the time, make sure there was a genuine debate between wings of the party, somebody might be on there for tactical reasons. But you could she see them coming through a winning? And I know that every single rule of politics is being rewritten in those few years, but it's still worth remembering that the front runner into religion. Contests has never made it before. So you don't really know he might not be a shoe in. I think the one metter story here apart from who wins for the conservative remains for the consumption models. They have this important decision to they have about who they want to be in the new. -servative party in under the regime of whoever it is Boris Johnson, Odom eight rob? They've got suicide. Do we want to be a bit like the l g were under Theresa May? Do we want to say we stand for this? We stand against no deal. And you cannot get past us. And if you try to go round us, we will create the havoc for you, but your creative for Theresa May, we cannot be ignored. I think that's a fundamental question for those conservatives on one thing we also found out this week manners that going to be TV debates in all this Emily made listen, the middle of June is going to have this sheet running. She's not running. I don't think. But again, she may still declare way you have all the comments on this podium. And that one, I think, is particularly difficult for Mr. Johnson because in that instance, all kinds will gang up probably on Boras about his, you know, perceived flaws and all the rest of it, and you can see that becoming bit of a mess, but then he's going to go down to a question time special, which is the final two and the Andrew Neil interviews, which I think will be varying should see how people like Boris were not as good on. Details. Do get picked up on that. So in my first one pot from how do they fit everybody onto a stage in how on earth? Do you manage eleven or twelve Wembley arena? Again, like the referendum exactly, it will be important to remember the point that robots made the actually the real audience is the MP's. So they'll be partly looking at how people are as performers, you know how they go over. And then when you get to this, the second round this question time, panel, I think that might be a difficult one for Boris Johnson if they do decide to gang up on him, but they may decide that that's actually not a good idea because in leadership contests as well. You've got to remember that if you are going to damage your future party leader, you are damaging your party's chances. So it's a very short term gain to slag them off properly on television us all the things against them that you know you could use against them. It's pretty dangerous. It can alienate the select. At the Tory party members themselves. And then you can end up Donna jingle brand by damaging your Fiji leader after might psych when I heard the notion that there will be a TV debate for the first round with as you say, ten or eleven I do this for living an idol. I left Robin you standing, I'll just reliving either want to watch this program. Just see them, we'll sit around actually I agree with Cato. Whatever is going to be absolutely awful. And you have to look what am I bothering to watch this show? The nine of you won't even be here in two weeks. Time I can wait for the final two. It's one of those things that we do is presumably because game of thrones is finished. Why are we doing this? I've no idea. Well, I'm sure grateful nation will be looking forward to watching that manage to circle back on web all the council, we've talked about Mr. Johnson. And we've talked about what Mr. go viz which will drop, Mr. Hancock and his comments to the F T, but we haven't talked about is Dominic Robb, who's being giving a series of interviews this week. Not on this spectator way he outlined why he doesn't see himself as a feminist and that has caused some waves as you might expect on Twitter. And social media. But again, for we doesn't matter. But his framing is quite interesting. Well, he's unapologetic about his world view, some people in the conservative party will think that, that's a strength because they share it. The problem is, you are eating a whole bunch of people if you don't try and engage with the way that the world is changing around you. So I do think that's a potential problem for him as the Tories decide he could get them elected at general election. That's the problem, even if they agree with him his decision to not sort of discuss it, and not admit that he might have spoken out of turn. I think could be a problem. I think more of a problem dominant rob to be honest is his behavior when he was Brexit secretary because he is saying various things about his record and his attempts to broker a compromise on the northern island back, stop, which are being really, seriously, disputed by other people who know what went on during that period. So I think the problem for him is also to do with him. Overplaying his hand as somebody who tried, but failed, not through his own fold on Brexit. I think the issue the dominant, rob. You know, was obnoxious bigots line about feminists is that what conservative leaders have to do is get rid of their negatives? You know, we don't expect any of the conservative party candidates to become leading lights in the feminist movement. That's not who they are. But they've got the not antagonistic to in the same way that David Cameron talked up what the conservative party was going to do for the national health service. It wasn't that if you really love any chance you're about to vote conservative on the back of it. But you had to shave the negative and the conservative party has to be conservative still, but it's got to look modern. It's gotten relevant. It's got to look like it's not a war with large chunks of the voters who support it's going to need in the end. And therefore, I think picking these culture, war fights and being unapologetic about them. We'll work in terms of guessing yourself elected conservative leader paps, but it's going to damage you in the long run, and they have to be very careful. How about the hostage to fortune? They leave when they get to general election, the they have created in their efforts to win the leadership at thought that the tweet by team sides, which is the campaign for the home secretary, Egypt bid which tweeted, this is what a feminist look with the picture of the cartoon, character morph kind of show that, that is the image. They're trying to put across in mims Davis, conservative MP's, one of his supporters said on an interview this week. The reason I'm backing Mr. Javid is because he's complete with modern Britain finding under this surprise person which AS Roma's alluded to a lot of people playing the hat into the ring here Philip Hammond, popped up on the radio this week. At hinted much the spies of everyone possibly, including Philip Hammond, if he wasn't happy with the Brexit positioning of the kind of he would think about himself, but he also talked about the chance of a second referendum. And I think the two questions that are really going to come dominate each of the candidates are will have general election, and we'll have a second, I friend because really to try, and so it's. You're gonna need one of those things I think you'll quite right on that. And presumably every leadership candidate is promising most of the Tory MP's coming to sound them out that they won't hold either. I think the real question is which of those commitments not to hold dinner election, not to hold a second referendum. They're willing to go back on his intially, because a second referendum might become inevitable. However, much some people on both sides of the argument don't want to have it. I think it is really significant that Hammond said, if nobody's prepared to Stanford, reasonable point of view, on Brexit, one that doesn't wreck the economy, I may be forced to put myself forward because again, it's this test of, is the conservative party still going to be able to claim that mantle of being the party of business in the part of the economy and he's obviously disgusted with his colleagues. They've lost it for him. Think flip. How has the potential to be quite a dangerous record in this company? Not because I think he will stand in the end because I think today on. He thought he had a chance he'd of stood already. But what he can do is play the role of viciously keeping everybody onus, we've also seen him attacking those making preposterous spending pledges that they can't really justify him. I think he's gonna play the role of we you said this, but actually that comparably work Cami, and that's very dangerous role to have someone playing. And I think is Miranda says is absolutely right. They all gonna face. Is it a second referendum is general election, if it's neither how are you going to do it? Then Boris Johnston's token to MP's privately. And he says, I want 'cause I'm going to go to a Macron, and I'm, I'm gonna go to Bonnie. I'm going to tell them like it is. And they're gonna give us a better deal. And that's you know, and even people who support him tremendously impressed with his own deep down. They're going to face this choice, the new leader of the conservative party and assembly. The next prime minister, how's the choice? Do I want to be the shortest serving prime minister in history by calling general election per take that risk? Or am I in the end gonna have to go back to the people who have much disliked this in a second, referendum and try and nail this, because the one thing about a second referendum is it will either gay. Get them off the hook of having to deliver Brexit or forced parliament, except the bricks. Then they have put to the people. Next week is going to be a big time full, the special relationship between the US and the UK President Donald Trump will come to Britain for his first state, visit while we welcomed at Buckingham Palace. He'll see to ease and you'll pop down to Portsmouth, to celebrate seventy five years since the d day landings, but the trip comes at a faith foot time, he arrives on the Monday and Theresa May is set to resign on the five day. Plus, there's the thorny issues of Brexit who's going to be the next prime minister, and how to deal with Hawaii, so Gideon Rachman these state visits happened. But once every presidency no me every president gets one. The Trump one is probably warned the more volatile ones in recent years. Not least because Mr. Trump is coming at a time in the UK where everything's up in the air, and we sensually have a lane duck prime minister Yang. It would have been awkward anyway, because that's quite a loss of anti-trump sentiment, particularly London. And so they're liable to be demonstrations. I think actually maybe people got a little bit more used to Trump is president. So were there will be demos that perhaps, isn't as big an issue. But as you point out, he arrives in the middle of this enormous political flux and crisis in the UK to May's on her way out. So any diplomatic discussions, he's gonna have we'll be basically pointless because he can discuss what way with a as much as he likes, but she'll be gone by Friday. But on the other hand, I'd done without already both him because I think, as far as he's concerned he's bringing the whole family of, it's like a kind of cross between a state visit and the family all day. I think he's very interested in the pump and circumstance. You know how many cannons fire off that kind of thing will matter Tim. I suspect more than the actual diplomatic details. And that's really why the president is coming because we know he likes the grandeur. And if there's one thing, the bitches state can do it is pomp and circumstance. Yeah. That's what we say, torsos. And I think that is true. These are very well established rituals kind of hard to go wrong with Buckingham Palace and Horseguards parade and all of that. So. Yeah. They'll do that. And they will on a him as they have honored the Chinese president Xi Jinping and many other American presidents in the past in a way. It's striking. How many presidents the Queen must have received probably starting with Eisenhower, so be quite hard to face. This is actually the hundred twelve leader that the Queen has welcomed on a state, visit gee became Queen back in the early fifties should James but such talk bit about what's going to be involved on the visit President Trump arrives on Monday morning where he'll be welcomed to Buckingham Palace for the sort of four part of the visit, and as getting, he's bringing his whole family with him that all four of Mr. Trump's eldest children are coming with their families, and I've been told the whole entourage is close to two hundred people will becoming and then there's the lunch Buckingham Palace, a state dinner that evening. But even the state banquet is proved quite political, and we know the Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of labour, Liberal, Democrats Vince cables, that they won't be attending to even the politics of it into the. Officialdom part of the visit. Yes. I mean, I state visit his something which most US president skit and the thing about this one, though is it's coming, very early indeed in the presidency. It's coming just within two years. And as we've already said, one of the strange things about it is that although it's happening with all the pomp and ceremony all the rest of it. It's actually a very hollow event. You have prime minister who is effectively an interim prime minister so there's nobody really talked to there. And we didn't know who the next person is definitely going to be, we know it could be Boris Johnson. It could be Michael go. But there's a hollowness of air, if you like Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition has already said that he is not going to attend the state banquet, nor is the speaker of the house of Commons. John berko, who could he doesn't want to see Mr. Trump, by the so a huge hollowness in the state, the one person who's probably top of the news, at the moment, politically in the UK, who is Nigel for us leader of the Brexit party who did extraordinarily well in the elections, he certainly would love to see Mr. Trump and I suspect, Mr. Trump would have no problem seeing him. But the. Likelihood is that they would meet the because that would just be too embarrassing. So all in all it's going to be a very strange event. And I think the risk in this event is that there will be some very uneasy moment. Some gas, you know, one of the problems with Mr. Trump, for example, in the past is, he's really been very critical of the way to raise the mayor's handled Brexit. And he said, very, very clearly that he thinks that he would have done it very differently. Now, if he veers off in that direction, once again, when the prime minister's really on her last legs, that's the kind of embarrassing thing that is going to make this really rather unpleasant. Experience say it would be seen as a kind of intervention in British polar six because the central question facing the Tory policy and also the country is how Trump like to be in dealings with the US Boris. Johnson has cited Trump as a model for dealing with Europe. In other words, saying, we should be much more aggressive, not play by the rules, shake things up. So if Trump were to encourage that kind of approach, he's in a sense, intervening in British and nothing's onto the. Second day of the Tuesday, witches the political Dana, it's going to begin with the business roundtable with CEO's and c level executives from the likes of GS, K MBA systems are going to be there to talk about trading and economic ties between the two countries Gideon, but then, don't Trump's going to go down and she'll be welcomed, and we'll have a lunch with Theresa May, and there'll be a press conference. And I guess really thought he's going to be the moment. Everyone will be watching to see whether Mr. Trump says something about the Tory leadership or about Hawalli over the relationship between the two countries that and this who always is going to be a big one, because the last person who came to the UK from the US was secretary of state Mike Pompeo who's coming back again on this trip. And he said, some very risk things about hallway and about the UK's approach, essentially accusing Treasa may of betraying the legacy of Margaret Thatcher by letting the Chinese state have what he sees as undue involvement. So I guess this chance for thousands of that. Sure, MRs may. Has attempted to strike a compromise, but it's not a compromise that the Americans are happy with. She said that, while we can get involved in the peripheral bits of the five, gene network, that Britain is just beginning to roll out the American say, no, no. You're laying yourselves wide open to espionage. And of course, this comes in the context of a trade war, that America is unleashed against China in the past month. And in an even broader context that trade war is being interpreted, as really an effort to block the rise of China will be at a rather belatedly, and the US expense that Britain has its oldest down. I will essentially go along with that the British, however, at least on the may are still trying to ride both horses. They are still in a way wedded to the previous mortar globalization, where trading with China was regarded as a good thing. They earn for what they call a golden era of economic relations with China, just as they're looking for a trade deal with America. They're also looking to develop a special economic relationship with a country. That's the second. Largest economy in the world. Phillip Hamman the chancellor of the exchequer and senior civil servants have all been to China recently. So the Brits will be loath to give up on that. And we'll feel that if they cut while off at the knees in response to American pressure. They will then sour the relationship with China. So they're really corn. And then James, finally, the last days, the Wednesday, which is when Mr. Trump and MRs may, and the Queen, and Prince Charles will oh, head down to Portsmouth, for the d day celebration. Seventy five years since the invasion of you, and that is going to symbolize the special relationship in a way in this idea of the US, and the UK working together, and then get a big moment for Mr. Trump to see all the military kit. And that kind of thing that he will then enjoy. And I think for MRs may she gets to that point without anything, Julie bad happening, she will be pretty relieved. She will be relieved. And of course that will be a moment to remind us of not only the US in UK role a delay. But also, of course of all the other empire and Commonwealth nations. That took part on the day. One should never forget that in one thousand nine hundred eighty four there were nine million British Commonwealth and imperial servicemen underarms of those four and a half million non-british. They have a huge role to play in this one hopes of that will be stressed. But a point the one wants to make this, I think we've already talked she want hallway on the differences there. The real problem, we have with this whole. Visit with Trump coming over is on the one hand, the British are basically saying, look one day we might need to do a free trade agreement with the US, and that's really important for us in the post Brexit world. And so that's what they're looking at with Trump, and that's why they want to get close and how the US close to use that phrase. But the trouble is most of the other areas of international policy. The British still a much closer to European sentiment that they ought to US. So on the scaling back of the Iran nuclear deal, there's a lot of tension between the European Union and the US over that over. Climate change. The British is still a much more. Whether to European view on the Middle East peace process, again, huge differences. And so although there will be lots of areas where the British do want to talk to the US, there really are an awful lot of differences underneath the surface, and that's going to be there in the background and not least the style between Mr. Trump and MRs may, that when she was the first foreign leader to go to the White House Gideon. It was so obvious. They're just very, very different people absolately, and she tried to make the best of his you remember by saying, oh, opposites attract, but in fact, that didn't really seem to be the case. I think they got on badly in the way that Trump and Merckel, evidently do get on badly, but there was never any connection there. But I think that if Trump or at least the people around him, thinking, strategically, they will be wondering and Pat, striving to capitalize on the idea that well, MRs may who had personality, but also James points out policy differences with Donald Trump. She's going if the next leader is indeed Boris Johnson, will he then a line Britain much more closely with the Trump? Ministration my guess is he would because we don't wear speech strategically competitive because if he went for a hard deal or no deal Brexit, with the European Union he would have almost to balance that get much closer to Washington. So I think some of those policy differences over Iran, maybe even over climate of in the Middle East peace process would begin to be a raised as London, once again, move places, Washington, and I think because Boris Johnson and laudatory, patio very historically minded. They see that as the natural lines this kind of d day memory is something that they think will this is where Britain's should be. And even though we may feel uncomfortable with Trump in many respects, essentially, that's Britain's scorelines. And of course, James, this is the big question. Can he resist saying something about the conservative party leadership contest that he was captured on camera on Thursday, making some comments where he sort of said, I like Nigel Farraj, I like Bosch Johnson, that friends, but I'm not going to get involved. But if we. The last time is Trump came to the UK. He got very involved. In said, Theresa May have messed up Brexit. She wasn't taking the opportunity. So although he's being quite restrained now and not getting involved in the UK's. Domestic situation is Gideon said it does feel as if he's going to come in and will end up saying something about who should be the next prime minister. And it's always it. He's going to want to Brexit as somebody who can do that trade deal with the US. Well, it's impossible to predict what Trumbull saying. I'm sure that press conferences. He will come under pressure to say that isn't gonna make a whole load of difference in the conservative leadership contest iffy. Suddenly comes out and says something very good about Boris Johnson. It might do but I don't think it will be decisive. I certainly don't think he'll endeared himself to large parts of the numbers, inviting, British public airlines themselves with Nigel Farraj. So we'll have to wait and see. He is a material figure, and he may say that sort of thing, but I think one thing he probably ought to take on board. Heard is that now that MRs may has said she's going we're going to end her a period of appreciation in the UK. What she tried to do. I think most people except she failed but she made a lot of strategic mistakes. But there's also knowledge that she was given an extraordinarily difficult hand, I think, by the white of public. So I think if he does anything to sort of say, well, I could have done it better or it could have done better by someone else. He really isn't going to endear himself to anyone. And I think it's worth remembering also that presidential interventionists in UK Palmer six or not on, but they also have a habit of backfiring. So you remember just before the Brexit referendum Barrack Obama was here was encouraged pretty clearly, by the Cameron government to say that a trade deal with America would not be easy to make that Britain would be as he put it at the back of the queue telltale British's them. Now, it's just somebody might have written it for him. But whatever it didn't work, it, anything it appeared to rile up the Brexit vote. So whatever Mr. Trump says. Says may have unintended effects as well as intended offense. Yes, I do wonder whether Boris Johnson would want that endorsement and whether it would help him, particularly to go into a general election. Because if Mr. Trump says, oh, Boris is the kind of guy I can do a deal without my help. But if he says, this is my kind of guy wag good friends, and that kind of thing, I'm not sure that will, particularly because, of course, they're all going to be huge protests for this is the whole of central Asia is essentially going to be shut down next central London that Boris was until recently, mayor over and claim to be in tune with indeed. So it's very tricky diplomatic visit to navigate that's it for this week's episode. Thank you. Miranda Gideon and James joining us, if like what you've heard, and like, two more journalism than do, take a look at all as subscription office, which you could find FT dot com slash offer. Politics, presented by me, Sebastian pain. I'm produced by an data until next time. Thanks for listening. Capital. One is building a better Bank. One that feels nothing like a typical Bank. It's why they've reimagined banking and built something completely different Capital One. Cafes they offer checking accounts with no fees, or minimums and savings accounts with one of the best savings rates in America. This is banking reimagined with your needs in mind. Open an account today at any Capital, One location or online in five minutes, and experienced banking. Reimagined for yourself Capital One. What's in your wallet Capital, One NA member? FDIC.

Boris Johnson Donald Trump MP Theresa May Brexit Miranda Gideon James prime minister UK US Britain Boris Prime minister UK Michael gov Brexit Trump America secretary Rory Stewart
For The Many: The Bravery of Crowds

LBC Election 2019

1:01:17 hr | 8 months ago

For The Many: The Bravery of Crowds

"COMP believe you've maybe this time of the morning wearing your jim-jams Ian Onto jim-jams as you. Well know that truly horrible picture though. I'm no I'm no Austar bollock naked. Are you still under the to say well you wearing. I've got my Hoodie on my my gap eighteen. I've got my with an JIM jam. Bottom were supposedly do like Jim. Jam Jammed Bottoms ups. Would you mean what's pull up. Are they like do they have one of those sort of codes. At the top. Or a bit of elasticated waistline laced live elasticated slide. Which is what people of my age? Were not easy to get off if you have a accent. So it's easy to get off the reason that we are recording. This so is because you are going to be an an. I'm going into the football cammo new ones and I have to apologize in advance just in Org because it is so disgusting. I am still having my early Morning Cup of tea and I think it would be to be honest. I do think think one of my human rights to be able to bring a big on your human rights. I remember how authoritarian you were when you were home. Secretaries let's loss over that one showy right. Let's just tell this podcast is going to be a tad short on noble weekend one but we will give good value for money no the paying any thing. That actually is being really good so many people have donated to my world. Big Sleep outs sponsorship thing. A lot of put in the comments about. Oh I'm just pay my subscription into the full. The many podcasts say. Thank you to everyone who's donated so far now. Raised over eleven thousand pounds with gift. I think that's about fourteen so so I'm one on the way to achieving the target. Twelve and a half thousand. There is still time to smoke somme. And you can do so if you just Google Ian Dale Virgin giving so so we can talk about oversee the London terror attack the people Channel Four and the way debates Nick Ferrari with Boris Johnson. Phillip Dance comments and also whether I would in fact be grilled by Andrew. Neil so start off with what happened in London yesterday. That must have brought back memories Fi. Well of course indeed every time there's a terror attack I'm taken back to the responsibilities. Not just the home secretary obviously of the security agencies the the emergency services and the you know what you have to do immediately after an attack which is firstly of course to try to prevent speculation and for those who are investigating to try to discover as much as possible as as quickly as possible and certainly quite a lot of information in the in the the newspapers in the news today so with that proviso about trying to avoid speculation. I suspect we will talk a little bit about some of the details. That seem to tain confirmed today. Well let's start off on that and then we'll come onto What what actually happened a little bit later? Yeah because he was a convicted terrorist. He was part of a plot to bomb the London Stock Exchange and was out on license and had a tag now a lot of people who say well how on earth was a man convicted of a terrorist. Act of planning a terrorist aloud. Why didn't you serve his full sentence? Well interesting thing Fab Ed Festival. Let me say that one of the things when I was home secretary and even since actually the I've often pondered and wondered about is knowing that we imprisoned a lot of terrorists actually People convicted for terrorism offenses. Both whilst I was home secretary just before since I it did always think at some point or another these people will be released and what is happening in the interim and how will we handle that and of course that was one of the reasons having controls in place because that was one of the ways that you were able to maintain surveillance over a terrorist but even hunt the go the government maintained the Control Order Asia in the way which was. Isn't you know it takes an awful lot of surveillance to keep an eye on somebody who who comes onto that Regime and of course the point with this The person was that he was convicted. I think it was in twenty twelve as you say say of Threatening the London Stock Exchange planning a terror attack. He was firstly imprisoned under an indeterminate sentence. which would have meant and he couldn't have been released unless the Parole Board was convinced that he was no longer a risk but he went to appeal and that was changed to Woah Determinate Sentence Sixteen years and he was actually released on licence? I'm halfway through that. So after you know just under in this case you want a minute to minute. Sixteen Years From Twenty twelve seven years. That was even half the sentence. No no and I don't know what the explanation for that is Ian but but I'm not And it was the parole board will look at this and will presumably think that this was not something that was I mean. It wasn't parole as I say. I don't think it doesn't seem clearly. It was the wrong thing to do. But P I'm I'm not somebody. Unlike the current Home Secretary who's ever believed that we should have a death sentence so we do need to recognize that people will be released from imprison in this case arguably too early given the original sentence that was passed bought. They will be. And how do we deal with that and the irony of this of course was it. It pays he was attending a event being held by the Criminology Criminology Society Department of Cambridge the university that was precisely discussing and thinking about the rehabilitation of offenders. That's an enormously difficult task which to be frank. I don't think any government that's all the criminal justice system has really got a grip of In recent in recent years I think the one thing that people will remember from from this terror attack for years to come is the bravery of those who tackled him and it wasn't just one or two people it was multiple people and I've just Venus into water than talking on the radio about it. I suppose we all think. What would we do in those circumstances? And you don't know until you confronted with it do you. And it's also worth noting given what we were previously talking about that it looks sounds as if some of those were themselves previous offenders. Who clearly were doing the the right thing in protecting others but no and you right you? You hope you'll be a hero. Although of course frankly some of the advice sees get yourself out of that that type of an attack going on but but the fact that people and how how fabulously British is it that one of them and Apparently grabbed a fife. Tusk from the fishmongers will was using it so say one of them had a five-foot talk and another one hadn't fire extinguisher. He was spraying this guy and another one was holding him down on the ground. And you know how I do think you yes. Of course it vices. Keep yourself safe and get away but actually those people for almost any that they were preventing further death and the injury up from that and you know how brilliant and well done to them along with us with the emergency services who have cost sounds as if the police. He's with that pretty quickly at five minutes From the moment the first nine co went in I think at one fifty eight They were there to three minutes. I too I think the other thing to say is the. It soon became evident that he was wearing a belt a suicide. I know it turned out to be a hoax. One but that didn't put people off. Just think I suppose when you're in the middle of that e- You don't in your brain is operating on a completely different level. And I I was sent a video of what happens. That turned are being circulating on twitter. And I we playing it and thinking. It's is this actually real because the police were dragging things somebody off him. I guess that was when they realized that there was a suicide belt. And that's when that's when they shot him so the people who would chase he might not have realized that he was wearing a suicide belt but but nevertheless whether they did or did not that was enormously brave. Because the guy had I heard this morning had a knife strapped to his hand. So it's actually very difficult to to disarm him and who knew whether or not he got weapons all will gone or anything that he could have attacked them with so they were enormously brave and as you say. When the police arrived realized he'd got suicide Potentially had a suicide vest dragged people away and quick as I understand it shot him and you know. There's a little bit of controversy about that but frankly you know there is some on twitter. Yes but my view Of lattice I think the police procedures of pretty clear clear that there was potentially a very serious risk to life and there is only one way of preventing that from happening when there's an active. They've attacked going on as it was. You know it will of course be subject to investigation. But I would not This moment broach any criticism of the a place for doing that so oversee. This is the first terror attack. The Boris Johnson has had to deal with Prime Minister All politicians who are taking part in the BBC debate. They oversee reacted to this and watching the debate. I watched bits of it. Ah Yeah well. We'll come on later but it how can I put this without sounding. All four seemed to bit routine because a seven of them. I mean they could only say the same thing really. I'm not blaming them. Carrie Lucas was the only one that didn't say anything about it in her opening opening statement but all the others did but it just sounds tonight so they had to say something so he said but to be honest I would whoa. What's what's dangerous in context of terror attack? But what's a risk at the moment is of course. We're this isn't just Boris. Boris Johnson's first. Terror attack is prime minister. We in the middle of a general election and actually I would rather those politicians had been rather more low key about it of course praised the emergency services in the things that they said Rav than to try to politicize this for the election. I think they probably you were playing it very carefully so that nobody could accuse them of doing it. And I actually thought that Boris Johnson statement when a bit close to that actually in terms terms of sort of suggesting policy. Initiatives would have prevented this from happening in terms of you know more police on the streets streets tougher sentencing etc Because of course this is an election of course people and talk about policies and contrasting thing that policies without the people but I think most of the public would see it as pretty distasteful to use an attack where of course people have died in order to make an electioneering points. And that's the reason why Somaly some campaign events are of course not happening today personally. I hope that doesn't go on for too long. Because of course one of the responses to to a terror attack is to not allow it to distort your way of life in the way that the terrorists want it to do so whilst it's respectful and rights for there to be a short pause. I think we need to get back to our democratic processes as quickly as possible. I guess the main thing for the investigating authorities now will be to work out whether he was acting on his own or whether he had help and on the face of it. You'd have to say this looks like a lone wolf. Attackers are called. That is the that's one of the things I remember when I faced these types of things as being the most worrying and that is to what extent is it a single offense Your mind turns to are there are a whole range of other you know. He's this part for much wider plot. Other other things going to happen because of course my first weekend and was the weekend when we had the foiled attack in London and then as it transpired the same terrorist driven up to Nikolov go and Into the Front of Glasgow Appleton Kassir Environment Cetera. But of course that's two events and until you're absolutely clear the that's the same people there is a feeling of Oh is two different sets of events. Are there other things being planned. That was the moment when when the second thing happened when I fell is people really know what's going on. This is really under control. What I can tell you is if the security agencies says anti counter-terror police are anything like and I'm sure they are what they were like? When I was home secretary? And we've seen how quickly they've they've already gathered a lot of evidence about the the The terrorist they The investigator ability is phenomenal. And they they will have joined the newest number dots already and be much talk about the situation but the agrees with you something Sir come here come on come here come here anything. I'm of course there will be a political angle to this and I can imagine the next time Geri McColgan is interviewed. The in the first question to him will be on. Do you think the police were right to shoot terrorist. De What what. What should he answer to that time? What do you think he will answer? My view is that he should answer Yes to protect life in those circumstances although paps wrapped around with you know. I'm sure it's being investigated and we'll need to see see what the what the situation was He should know that. I'm pretty sure it's still the case that that would be sort of standard police operating procedure in the case where they Somebody's potentially going to explode themselves. Something else in cools much y damage and of course one of the things about wearing a even a hoax suicide vest is sometimes terrorists. Do that precisely in order to be killed because they don't lean this case the guy was definitely heading straight back to prison again and I'm proud. You know they don't want that to happen. That's what he should say. I suspect he might say what he said in the Andrew. Neil interview which is if it's a tool possible you you should Apprehend people rather than shooting them. Which of course in one way is true? Of course that self evidently right. But Jeremy Copeland's problem is that people don't really think that he would take tough action either in the case of terror or in the case of what he says about our nuclear deterrent take for example. So he should try to overcome that but I suspect he probably won't well. I think it's interesting in the twenty seventeen eighteen election when there was a terror attack. Everyone thought that would be to the conservative advantage or cynical people did anyway but it didn't turn out that way and Corbin's opens reaction to that was actually in a sense L- very were. How say well planned? I didn't mean well plan it was it was it wasn't a reaction well-judged exactly and I think this is going to be quite a moment in this campaign in some ways. Because if he does do you think he might do he will be going against nine thousand nine percent of the British public. Yeah you're right. Although although the one percent of the public who was I suggested questioning that response will be precisely the one percent of the British public. KABC has previously spent a lot of his life with. Yeah well let's not even go. There now actually had that many pulses week though the one the the poll from YouGov on Wednesdays One. Everybody's concentrating recommended by the said it thought there would be conservative. Majority of sixty eight now now. This was the poll. I completely rubbished in two thousand seventeen and somebody. Somebody actually kindly sent me a tweet. That I did in where people find Wendy's tweets from but it said so what one of us is going to have a lot of Google on our face at the end of the election and it turned out to be me so I'm going to be slightly caveat response to this election by the way. Say Okay when I was growing up when I think it was probably Jackie magazine. Used to recommend face packs made with egg remember. Did you do them. Yeah I used to do all of that. Yeah yeah now it just pay ridiculous amounts of money for the the thing I put on. My face is navy. If amend I'M GONNA check out your wrinkles on ICU. Well that's the one thing I have to say I don't I don't have sprinkles but I could feel my neck going a bit scratchy. That's surgery love. We'll find we'll we'll get you a lift anyway back to the PO. What did you make of it? well as I don't really UNDERSTA DOC. I'm not an expert on polling techniques but clearly it is much more granular than the The the sort of national will stay at the party's polling and that makes me both sort of slightly suspicious but also of course it provides some enormously interesting and for Labor worrying Results what appeared to suggest was what some people had fed which is that in some of the Labor particularly sort of working class. What we would form he thought offers hartland seats but where there is a strong leave? Voting Element We risk losing them so seats in the black country in West Bromwich Tom Watson's old seat. For example potentially we could lose our good make Caroline Flint. I mean incidentally I don't I I don't think she will but it's interesting that those are the types of seats but perhaps or the current suggestion gene is perhaps Labor needs to tweak its campaign in order to give more prominence to leave supporting shadow cabinet members in order to reassure people. I think think that's wrong leap up. That's appears to be the conclusion that may have been drawn by from that result. It also of course gives Boris Johnson. A sixty something majority which would be I think the largest majority and certainly the worst performance for Labor since one thousand nine hundred eighty three. So it's all a bit low. It's all a bit on the on the down low in terms of the Labor action to that this week this idea that Labor can tweak his campaign with only ten days to go as Lynton crosby says as you can't fatten a pig on market day. If they say well we're going to put much more levy northern people at the front of the campaign. Will the two names being suggested a Richard. Bergen an IAN lavery avery. Good luck with APP. Yeah exactly yes it. It's too late. I mean Labor has had enough constantly said. I don't think neighbors had enough clarity about it's about brexit policy You can't stand around in them because let's be honest. Although the poll didn't accentuate this the sort Sousse remain ary middle-class circles I move in people are pretty pissed off with Labor there as well in a thinking about voting other things so so labor succeeded in this sort of sitting around in the center policy of alienating both sides of the argument and I think that's at the heart of some of the difficulties difficulties that are potentially going to face but of course the other interesting question that people were posing as does this of course itself or potentially alter the election. Because does it mean that people will be much more in that twenty seventeen position which he was of mocking me about on Wednesday which she's being able to campaign for. If you don't like Jeremy Corbyn nevertheless being able to campaign for good candidates like I was this week and say I e convoked the pre culinary Houston but jerry weren't become the prime minister. We need to protect good labor. MP's like this. It might mean that people think that in which case the poll itself prevents its results from being this -essarily achieved to the extent that it's just they would be well. I feel most. That is a point of view. I think think Dominic Cummings recognized that so he wrote the book pace that he did because complacency is the enemy of any political party in general election. I Look I look at the dam. That was a very big breath. You did. They're no allowed to Joe. Swanson's not allowed to win votes. It seems so she. She is the big loser. Serve this campaign so I watched the interview the Ranvir Singh did with for. It for their leaders debates emit try. I make a four second appearance and she. I came across rather well in that. She just doesn't seem to be striking a chord with the British public tool what I realize is particularly from listening to that BBC Question Time debate last week equip where they were all done individually. I mean I I agree with you. I'm I'm not one of these people. Think she's irradiating and you know I think for some people there is a fair amount love. She's she's young articulate and a female and we saw feel uncomfortable without you incidentally in but there's a bit of a touch of that in some of the commentary I think she she comes over assured I think her big mistake was. I'm going to be the next prime minister although it's pretty difficult to stand in an election and say I'm not going to win but anyway and then of course linked to that. If I form a government I will revoke article fifty because it feels liberal. Democrats supporters emphasize is that Democrat bit. And they it feels anti-democratic and it feels if you've misunderstood the nature of the concern in the country about how we get to a conclusion and I've come to the conclusion that the only way that you can reverse the 2016 referendum To return to the people again and the idea that you could do it without doing that. I think has gone down badly in the country and even with Liberal Democrats supporters and that seems to be a little bit of the heart of why she's not firing on all cylinders thing that subsidy right and the the nicer already out for her. The Liberal Democrats She really had far more enemies than you might think. Even when she was elected and I understand from Lib Dem sources is that they are incredibly concerned about losing her seat now normally party leaders get a bounce because they are the party leader but there are some people. Hey think she's not going to win in eastern Barton Chair. Is She getting who she lose it to. SMP isn't it isn't Nicholas Sturgeon say Experienced strong capable leader in this election. Yes and she is streets ahead of anyone else. We'll come onto the debate last night in a moment but she just walloped everyone in that without really having to try I think she she is an incredibly impressive but she is a bit like Jo Swinson. I don't know whether it is because of because like Jo Swinson. She's a woman but people do get incredibly irritated. Aided by her as well in a way that I don't think people do with male politicians I mean my partner joy I mean if he sees either the J. Swinson or Nicholas Sturgeon on the television television goes off immediately cannot stand either of them which I don't personally now. Well I do because I read something about powerful women for some up and put on in this country. There is something about half women that some people find little bit tricky to deal with right the BBC seven way debate last night. I have to say I lost the will to live after about ten minutes. I thought it was just awful and it wasn't anybody's fault. I mean Nate Robinson. I thought she had it brilliantly. Actually ball the whole format was just ridiculous with seven people. I mean what on Earth were Nicholas Surgeon and Adam price doing in that debate anyway because they're not standing candidates all over the United Kingdom Caroline. Lucas agreed party is stunning adding candidates. Well all over Great Britain. See if you have Nicholas Sturgeon and a Adam price why not have arlene foster why not have The policies Niamey Long. Well I think Nicholas Sturgeon might well argue that they they all the third largest party in the current parliament and therefore deserve their place. I don't buy that if your candidates all over if the country you don't get to play but you're going to be you you potentially. If there is a hung parliament could play an enormously important role in. WHO's the future providence them? But it's it's not possible to have a good debate with some people. Well I mean when I say I watched it I mean I literally did watch a little bit and I've watched a few clips since because I'm afraid I call upon Thursday nights. I'm a celebrity roller on it. I haven't gotten into tool. Have you ever go into it. Yes I've what most series but see. The problem is now because I don't get home till quarter past eleven. I'm afraid and I go to bed. Maybe an hour later. It's not going to spend our our what celebrity whereas when I got home a quite happily watch it live but I just don't anymore either even though the lovely Kate Galloway's how's how's she doing. She's doing well. Actually she managed to avoid the what she called an expulsion. Note that whatever as the last night in the being booted out because they've just started the booting out bit no she who babysit out Adele the DJ Jay Leno her. No we'll precisely and that's why I correctly prophesied that it would be. She's not she's nice enough. I funny enough. The only problem with with this year is everybody's getting on very very well so there isn't very much so beef and they're also doing incredibly well in the challenges so that eating in quite a lot. Not because I read in the papers that Ian Ryton James Haskell. They're the ones that people died. Like which you to fill in right would have been the most popular one enough he. I thought that he isn't coming over. That well actually comes over petulant mummy enough but but they ruled the. They're all pretty nice. Nice to each other so Anyway so recap distracted from the important business of politics to. I'm a celebrity like the vast majority of the British public is suspect. Yeah I tend to the various figures I think what I if if three million people watched that at the beginning I bet by the end of it was under under a million because it was like watching paint dry and they all well with a possible exception. Nicholas Sturgeon. They they all it just came across as a bit in hit on human in human human rebuttal by she. She helped their leadership. Campaign's GonNa talking of which Rebecca Bailey. I think she dominated it much to my surprise. She I think she had far more time than any of the others I am. I allowed to say that her voice is one of the most irritating voices. I think I know anybody that I've ever heard. No you knock Tuck it. You've just fallen into that trap that we were talking to be full of. I don't know now because she's a woman it's just a doesn't vary that her accent. What is one where I mean? Obviously everyone's got their own accents. Nikon sort of worship away. But Oh God I couldn't listen into a forty five minute speech at that. Yeah I'm she was better than I thought she would be. She no no I agree I agree with that. She's being given on the topic of politicians who haven't shown much in this election. We've done previously. She somebody who showed up Apollo. She's very well thought of She's a potential future leader and that was her opportunity which she didn't quite maximize. But it made you know she was well and truly on this of labor argument around getting onto the NHTSA all of the public service arguments that Labor is making some mm success during the course to this election campaign so I don't know if she probably they let a suspect. Labor thought it was reasonably good performance. Former I don't know if there's any sort of polling come out of it but I would have thought it was quite good. I mean the other interesting thing of course is labor. Put Up Rebecca Long Bailey. The tourist put Reshi soon. Aku who to be perfectly frank with you. I didn't really know at all before this election campaign but he's all over the place like a rash so is he he. Well full service here big rising. He's in the cabinet. Although his chief secretary to the Treasury said is he a peak rising style will borrow certainly think so. I don't know him. I don't think ever met him even. Sure I've interviewed him I thought the he says e personified the Tory campaign. It didn't really say anything. I mean he was reasonably impressive but again he seemed a little bit remote to he. Didn't he didn't connect emotionally with the audience. Which I think in these debates is really important do which in fact to be fair not sure any of them did which you have to have soda break through line or moment? Don't you and it is much more difficult when they're seven of you because there's nothing natural troll about that there's no give and take and flow of the argument. When you've got a setup like that Richard Thais I thought came across very badly? It's interesting that he did. It didn't a fraud that debate because he's a East I think he's sinking into depression is NI. It's very odd. I just didn't couldn't believe it when I saw Richard Thais was there. I'm not sure fry she's just. ESPN novice in this campaign. You have to ask why that is. I'm doing an interview with him on Thursday so I should be exploring these issues in that interview in a very bizarre caroline. Lucas was just incredibly incredibly predictable. Nicholas Sturgeon came across as very clear. She has been quite good put-downs to Richard Ties but she clearly clearly didn't like he had no self knowledge that he was six foot four towering over every body Nicholas Surges. What five foot six or something? And it's not it's not a good look when I know this from my inexperience when you are a big guy trying to to take apart a small woman. You've got to understand that it's not a good look. Can he didn't get a tool. Yeah Yeah how was Adam Price because my memory of I mean. He's come a long way since used to square up to people in the House of Commons. Use a bully. I wouldn't look so much a bully but a little bit so rural Komo Avenue. All you had to pay about a month. Did you know fists were deployed. But like I happy known later. Come if you think you're enough. ooh That's a tool. He's very animated. Massively very animated very eloquent but again not quite connecting with with the audience soper I think he he was one of the better better performance of the evening now. The channel four debate on climate a change. I didn't watch that so I don't know how that panned out but the point is I don't think anybody watched it but what they know is there was a block of ice in fact there were two blocks of ice and there was there was Voice Johnson's best mate and died in the foyer kicking in a bit of a stink. Well we talked about this quite a bit only daily trail podcast for Sheila. I mean what is there to say. That hasn't been said Eh. Frankly I thought that channel four are going to be in Quebec trouble with off. Calm over the ice sculpture. They may be in trouble over the fact that there wasn't they wouldn't allow toys to take part. I don't know about that one. But that was a political statement that they made with these ice sculptures. And that's not the job of news program but there is an ongoing going political story in this campaign about whether or not. Boris Johnson is backing out of interviews which arguably he should be doing. Now we've previously You know as it happens. It was quite a clever stunt. I don't think there that woulda been. Although climate change is an incredibly important issue. I doubt there would be massive viewing figures for it so perhaps he did make the right decision not to spend his time Doing it but you can't expect to do that. And not get any impact from it particularly at the point when everybody is going easy going to do the Sandra Neil interview. Isn't he going to our the BBC going to respond incidently just before we finish on Channel Four to respond by briefing that that you're going to review channels license is Pretty appalling anti-democratic stuff it would be. Would be worthy. The of Alister Campbell. Wouldn't it. I didn't think I could imagine him saying look I think that was. There's something that PR person says on the spur of the moment. Identity the any truth to that at all however you look at what. How Channel Four behaved Theresa you had Dorothy and and the head of news and current affairs in the McTaggart lecture? Say some terrible things about Boris Johnson and the government which is not her role to do and then it expects there to be no consequence. If I'd been Darah to communications number ten I would certainly have sent channel four to Coventry for at least six months and not put any one up so I don't see why they they. They think that they have a right to have politicians on that program. They don't actually. There are plenty of other programs politicians to appear serum like Andrew. Neil's I look. I think he will do it. I don't really think this will turn give but again if we we've talked about this before if if you're I were in number ten advising him we would both be saying doing nothing to gain from it right out the storm too risky. I agree I mean I'm I'm let me put my money on him never Ending up doing it. Because why why would he. You know everybody. WHO's done up to this point as is pretty much of a monitoring from hundred nail? And if you don't have to and this is the BBC's fault for not tying everybody vence if you don't have to. Why would you put yourself through that? He if we to believe Anything about the polls. The Tories are ahead. They need to battened down the hatches and not put things at risk and labor needs to Cutler Matlin with everything that they've that they've got at this particular stage in the campaign. I think I wonder whether or not the BBC will follow through with this because of course at the moment. There's the suggestion that they're saying. You can't come on mall on Sunday and to Boris Johnson. LSU also agree to do neal now. Of course. If I was was Andrew Maher be a little bit peeved that I'm being seen as the sort of easy thing that everybody will do versus true. Neil as the bold bulldog is at the right word of the of the interviewing world but nevertheless seems to be the situation for some fake news yesterday didn't he. Oh are you talking about. Let's talk about this. The Boris Johnson cutting across his throat symbol. We're in the middle of an interview. which apparently wasn't him selling Nick Ferrari to move on but was him mimicking nick? We're already doing it to his producer. She said Yeah. I mean this. This just got totally out of control yesterday because what actually happened was that they they were talking about social care and Boris Johnson. Having a bit of a tough time. And if you were watching the live stream what you saw was Boris Johnson. Doing this sort of throat-slitting thing thing as if it looked as if he wanted Ferrari to stop on social care and move on and therefore Nick Ferrari `obediently move on because they're bit chummy that that was how it was portrayed on social media later in the interview. You saw the explanation for this where Boris Johnson had seen gene on the Sky television screen. But you can't the viewer can't see the on the wall of the studio. He saw sky knees reporting this throats. Letting you could only see his mind. Wearing what on earth are they showing that for and so he says live to. Nick Ferrari. Have you seen this. This is extraordinary. This show me doing that. Three three city thing I I was just sort of coping with doing and he and what actually happened was the producer was speaking in his ear for sorry wanted him to stop because it was putting him off his line of questioning with Boris Johnson. So he did. Nick Ferrari did the threat sitting thing which didn't appear on camera because the camera happened to be on Boris Johnson. At that particular moment I do this all the time I if pretty uses have to judge when to speak to you in your and if it's an inappropriate moment you justify them to stop it that you don't want to be talked to but would you expect somebody that you were interviewing who who is in the middle of a really really tough interview to sort of mimic you like that. Well I think you've got to understand the relationship between borstal in Ferrari where it is a sort of joshing relationship and Boris Johnson. Even though he whether he did it to put Nick Ferrari off to move onto something else. Oh No bar the fact the fact is he was mimicking him. It's perfectly obvious that was happening happening and yet I mean David David Schneider. All sorts of people jumped on the bandwagon. Say this is the way. The media works a disgrace and all the rest of both of them did delete their tweets. Each slater has to be said. I said that that's the case but I still think it plays into my view of Boris. Johnson he was willing to dude. I taught for eleven years. He reminds me of the sort of probably clever. But Lazy and Disruptive Kid you could never focus in the matter in hand social care per important. Boris it would be nice if you've been concentrating on it. And instead he saw slightly missing out of a club that was me. I don't see that now. I don't think it was well. It was a pair I was always the one with the quick one liner to the teacher. And I agree with you there but you have to put it in in the context of the rest of the hour. which was that wasn't bits of joshing between the two of them and it wasn't the kind of engineer type into where he's got to be? He owns metal and all the time. That was a bit of Hema now. Look every interview is different in every interview style and Nick Ferrari style with Boris. Johnson often delivers very good. Souls Souls. I'm he did ask him. How many children which I remember saying to somebody in the leadership hustings imagine what would happen if I asked that uh-huh which wouldn't be inappropriate the lead ship Austin's but of course appropriate in a week in which you've been reported as the prime minister in criticizing single single mothers twenty years ago? If you've created sorry you know you were well paid agent but then again of course. I also tweeted video of Jeremy Corbyn On Press TV questioning whether Israel had the right to exist and of course that was years ago. Say anything that you said in your life is basically fair game. Isn't it cool right. We're running out of time because I do want to get to lots of questions. Lots of email questions today but just a quick words about Philip Dodd who is former defense defense minister constituency hustings accused his Labor his Labor opponent. He's a sea of talking through his turban. Now the Labor candidate has got very what use that word that you got into trouble for last week. got very exercised about this reported. Fill it onto the police for Hate Crime Roy. Now maybe it's my age. I just think this is just so overdone. I mean talking through three hat is an expression. So if you're wearing a turban why wouldn't talking through your turban expression because it's just christly idiotic looser process but it's not a hate crime. Well the police will decide whether or not the prosecutors choose not particularly but we're in a general election but I do think Phillip Janis an idiot and I don't think it's the same as saying talking. Why didn't they just say talking through? Your hat could upset that. Most people who say that to aren't wearing rats all day so that is a perfectly reasonable expression but to use it in relation to something that is part of somebody's religion and religious profile. I think asking for trouble. And you're an idiot. Okay right. Two questions Michael Says I remember listening to the podcast ages ago the issue was is the issue of abortion was brought up. Jackie mentioned. She didn't think there should be any limits on abortion does lay policy actually. What I said was battleship decriminalized while does Labor's policy of decriminalising abortion means that women can get an abortion at any time during pregnancy? I don't think it does. I know what it means is because what it means is that you wouldn't need the very restrictive process that you have to go through at the moment to get an abortion but this still remains the time limit In Law actually for abortion but it would be much easier to access which of course would mean. Actually you'd be much less likely for people to have later abortions and let's not forget that the vast vast awesome majority of abortions are carried out very early on in pregnancy actually very few even get anywhere near the time limit now. No one knew somebody tweeting saying I I was I was proposing people getting abortions eight and a half months I mean they would have to be some extremely rare Risk to a woman the I think that would even lead to an abortion at that sort of level but that isn't Labor's policy and that is what I said Brian Dolls. I just wanted to let you know how much I enjoy. The for. The many podcasts bearing in mind. We're about tough our third general election four and a half years. Do you think that the fixed term parliament act should be repealed. It certainly doesn't appear here to be working very well I think but I think whoever wins will repeal it. Don't you I agree. Yes isn't working the way it was intended. This is from Pool Nelson in the fluffy bunnies podcast. And who can forget that one. Jackie said she couldn't tell you about the first thing she was told US Home Secretary in that important job. How how often are you told about security secret issues and have to make a decision? Maybe you told me You told frequently. I'm just trying to think what a pro probably every day but certainly probably every week or fortnight fortnight's something that no only would you not say anything about that time but you would never say anything about threesome we sorry hesitating. Here's because I'm having to go through each email and slightly read it before Here we are Miranda was the says I can't remember an election when so many people genuinely frightened about the results have Jewish friends. Frightened recording government remained scared of a Tory majority conservatives conservatives like me scared of another paralyze Parliament Union Scott scared of another indie reference trump. One of the things. I find really hearty about your podcast is that you never seen that worried. What is your secret? who was that person's name Miranda Miranda? I'm sorry Miranda. I'm bloody miserable about this election. It's the worst one I've ever lived through and I feel utterly depressed about what the result will bake but we try and keep cheerful weird even in adversity not. We try and keep cheerful at all times. I think is something to do with age because I think you get a little bit of perspective with agent however worried you are things never quite turn out to be as bad as they seem at the time this is from Hillary earlier the seasoning in when a young man are still guests. If they'd ever change their mind about something after hearing someone else's opinion I'm not sure I heard you correctly but I think you said you change your mind about the European movement. I've only recently heard about this organization Dunham considering joining it. If you have the time I really appreciate it if you could expand on your comment. which way did did you change from being in favor or not being in favour well? This is on cross question on widened. State it was the last question to the panel. What are they changed their minds about and I said a AH in the one thousand nine hundred eighty s I used to be a member of the European movement? I do debates for them. Speak for them all about sort of the the European in pro project because the there was never really in the one thousand nine hundred eighty s and he thought they would ever be United States of Europe especially in enthuse. The European movement did promote that so I was very pro V. C. Back in the one thousand nine hundred eighty S. ICU debates against Labor Party. The people in the nineteen eighty-three election. who were breathing heavily again? Who who walking against Britain's staying in the Common Market so yes I have completely changed my mind on that? What's the issue that you really change your mind I? I used to be a member of see March against nuclear weapons and of change my mind on that. Thank God for that This is from James. He says is Jackie going to apologize for using the word. Upper thirty in your last podcast. That is now deemed racist. Even though she didn't know it was racist list. I mean who did Ayman homes into trouble this week to do you think it's offensive from people use. It accidentally should apologize using it. If you remember member I apologized on Wednesday off a goat. Yeah I apologize for using on Wednesday I genuinely did not know that it was Offense saved by except that it is. I'm sorry I used it. Declan says my parents live in a safe labor seat middle for central. They both separately commented to me that they haven't had any canvases. Knock on the door and I said it's probably unlikely due to the seat being so safe. They're both disappointed as they feel. It would be useful especially in these as politically divided times. I suppose my question is isn't a seat only safe until one day isn't. Isn't there a chance seats. Could change hands if other parties actually actually put effort into campaigning. There that's an interesting point that the thing that people don't understand is that generally political parties do not have armies of people all who can either deliver leaflets or go knocking on doors in some sees. The party might have four or five. Real activists are doing that and yet you hear this week in in Donkin Smith seat. Fires in the Labor candidate is how to turn activists away because there are too many to organize so this away. We sled era tasty when I heard from people say I haven't had anything through my door now. What if you go? Puff you're awesome politics deliver leaflets. Then you might get more leaflets through your door. That is all very fair. Ian And of course one of the criticisms of Labor's campaign was the there seem to be a suggestion from the national organization. Denies Ation that wasn't GonNa be any targeting that we were going to win every you know. Try and win everywhere and actually of course all of my experiences that you have to target your resources depending depending on the national polls either way you're going to need to defend seats away. You think you can take marginal seats. And of course I. My seat was always a very marginal seat. I always go resources targeted On me and what's more we got people from neighboring safe seats. Come and help us either. Because they were unwinnable winnable in which case as I am. Frankly to in from West Worcestershire going to seats where I think it would make more of a difference if I campaign. I'm all where AH people in those days felt pretty safe. I do agree. I don't think it's local campaigning. That's going to change a seat in the end. Local campaigning makes a bit of a difference. But it's not conclusive but I do think you get a you. You can get a political change as happened to Labor in Scotland for example where formerly very safe seats all of a sudden are no longer labor and in that case not having done the work and not having the data about voter contact for example example will prevent you from sort of holding back that way you're absolutely right and there is huge complacency Off The style that you described been labor in Scotland in a lot of Tory seats in England Well they just don't bother canvassing they just don't feel they need to. They regard their role as raising money to help marginal seats in the election. And some of them don't even think that they don't want to release their money because they want to keep it for their own seat no says which country would you like to visit for the first time in twenty twenty well I am going to visit India for the first argues. NC Yes in February break yet. In fact I will miss support at least one podcast. Oh well thanks to the wolves leave request. I would like to go to India to really because it's it's always a country that's fascinating me. The anything that puts me off going is everybody. I know that's being that has ended up being ill. I've got me Modiin. I would I would like to go to Japan. I've never been to the Far East and I always thought Japan such a fascinating country Another one up. He's from Malkin Manchester. How many complaints to off come and from? Which side do you think there would be if you interviewed yourself and then took 'cause seriously ours? Does the missing politician when they cancel at the last minute you're looking at this stems from the fact that we we talk about this on Wednesday. I think we did that fact that we didn't have a Labor guest on Tuesday and it's quite quite difficult on the radio to do a little sort of stunt so we didn't do that but it's very tempting. We have the situation again my my program well by the time you listen to this apob forty happen. So you'll know but we. We are expecting a front line Labor guests for an hour my Sunday morning show tomorrow night but as of now. We're calling this on Saturday morning. I don't know who that will be. I was going to say who is it because I really old. ooh I mean they were not pleased. I write a blog place about it all but I just see you have to call people out for this. I've done it to the Tory so I'm going to do it to Lakers. Well I was wondering what would happen on Thursday because we didn't have a Tory guest until think the lunchtime but we got Roma generate. Here's of famous name but is in the cabinet and he's actually. I thought rather impressive. I can see why the Tories an easing am I. If somebody I don't really know but what we have most to the hour talking about housing policy which I thought he really enjoys even a lot of challenging questions because he sets off as well. What else can I talk about housing for that that length of time because it's a hasn't featured in this campaign tool really You've got me a Wednesday night haven't you. And and yes showing cross question you're going to be on with Zak Polanski from the Green Party name coat and Co Alley. GM campaign. Yeah you order like her type bit crunching. Oh Oh sorry okay. Hit SORTA round one. Here's this from George ignoring the actual result in election night drama which run up up to agenda that election as being the most exciting over the years in which has been the most boring well for me personally. Obviously the run up to nineteen ninety-seven was the most exciting And this hasn't this one hasn't been boring. It's been upsetting and irritating I never find a general election boring. I always get excited by them so I can't think of bowling will. I am finding this election campaign incredibly boring I have to say I think I think nine hundred ninety ninety two would be the one those most exciting for me because people genuinely didn't know what the result was going to be after ought to to massive Tori landslides. This labor seemed to be in the ascendant. I was the campaign manager and a very marginal seat in Norwich and we genuinely thought we might lease. We won by two two hundred sixty six votes And I will maintain that was down to an extremely negative leaflet that we put out in the last week of the campaign that we put about hundred of them because we need the local press would do the job for us not because in political bias but because it was such an extreme leaflet and it was pointed out in Gibson's Gibson's trotskyist tendencies. Any looked like we. It was headlined a few things about your Labor candidate. The you should know and it was done on the red pay per. I say it did look a bit. This typical Liberal Democrat tactics. Really A it made the front page of the newspaper and and he and other Labor people said to me with the car he said well we lost as soon as you did. That was the Candida. The Tory candidate was absolutely outraged. Because we didn't tell them would done. I don't think you play tricks on your. I think we told him and he will maintain to this day that he would have won by five thousand. Had we not done that whereas I maintain that had we not done that he wouldn't have wanted to can. We will never know. You can't hate you idea that. Negative campaigning works. But it does right. We're going to let you go to nine and we train. Yeah you you go and I will say goodbye to everybody. All right cheerio everyone but by just a couple of housekeeping things. If you haven't worked out by now that she's not switching officiate. If you have worked out by now on this podcast feed you can also get the daily trail. PODCAST DO is Sheila fogarty every day for twenty minutes and don't forget also my book club which Jackie Smith Features on this week. We're talking about the second edition of Honorable Eighties down that from the Intel Book Club. PODCAST feed feed and they'll be an announcement on Monday about LBC's election-night Shea. So do tune in for that. So I'll be with you. Monday Thursday a seven. PM ON ABC do have a listen. Goodbye thank you for listening to this global label original podcast from LDC. If you enjoyed it would love it if you could leave rating under review on whichever podcast pugh using it helps other people find us she say. And if you like this podcast do try my other two weeks. He podcast the book club to be tougher with is about new books and cross question my weekly political. Oh panel debate show with top guests from the world of politics and the Media The book club. PODCAST is ready for download every Friday morning. 'cause question from ten pm every Wednesday tonight and don't forget to listen to my daily l._B._C.. Show from seven to ten PM Monday to Thursday.

Boris Johnson secretary BBC Nick Ferrari Sandra Neil prime minister Carrie Lucas Nicholas Sturgeon London Google Andrew Maher London Stock Exchange Jeremy Corbyn Parole Board tain Adam Price football JIM jam twitter
What is Russia really doing in Libya?

Monocle 24: The Briefing

58:55 min | 7 months ago

What is Russia really doing in Libya?

"You're listening to the briefing first broadcast on the sixteenth of January. Two Thousand and twenty on twenty. Four briefing is brought to you in partnership with Rolex Hello and welcome to the briefing coming to you. Live from studio here at Midori House in London. I'm Andrew Miller coming up when the manages walk down the Hall Process Threshold old in history delivering articles of impeachment against the president of the United States purview of our and suction of the house. It and where off House Speaker Nancy. Pelosi sends the articles of impeachment to the Senate. Now what also ahead. President Vladimir Putin reorganizes Russia's Russia's government to the apparent surprise of Russia's government news panel will look at tentative tiptoes towards modernity by both the Vatican and British courts and. We'll wonder wonder why some people think it's worth spending half a million quid to hear this. Plus we'll get the latest business news and take a leaf through Monaco's new into weekly and find out. Why are you Welsh? Rebel song has followed an Irish rebel song to the top of the British British charts. All that and more coming up right here on the briefing on monocle. Twenty four and welcome to today's edition off the briefing with me. Andrew Miller such is the extreme weirdness of Donald Trump's presidency of the United States. The fact of obstacles impeachment being sent into the Senate somehow doesn't seem like that big a deal. It is a big deal however something that has happened before just twice in American history and this point of course imagining asterix attached to a footnote reminding that would have been three times had Richard. Nixon not resigned to forestall the inevitable. Trump is on the hook for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. His trial will begin on Tuesday. Unlikely two thirds majority of senators is required to convict him and remove him from office on join now by amy an associate fellow at the US and the Americas program at Chatham House. Amy The big and obvious question I the Republicans of course hold the Senate fifty three to forty seven is as the frontiers danger enough of them. Flip to end trump's presidency. It's highly unlikely that would happen. MC conceivably there could be some bit of information that the public become so outraged over that the members feel like they need to change their position but at this point in time that that seems unlikely to happen we will come back to that possibility or prospect of new information but that being the case it is as you point out extremely extremely unlikely given the GOP's loyalty to trump up to this point that they will seize upon this opportunity to dump him that being the case. Is this the sexually politically wise of the Democrats. I mean leaving aside what trump may or may not have done and the legal rightness of the impeachment. Is this politically smart. What I think? That's something that Speaker Pelosi has been dealing with since the beginning if you ask her just as a purely political strategy is this the right one I think she would say no and she had avoided moving toward impeachment hearings after the Muller report after other allegations of misconduct. What really pushed her here was at several fairly conservative? Members of the Democratic Party were so frustrated and fed up with the allegations that president trump was seeking taking the engagement of a foreign power in the US elections that they pushed her to take this move. I think otherwise. Pelosi may have been reluctant to do so because is it is not a political winner. We know where the Republicans stand. We know how the story is going to end. And she's taking a political risk because we do know where this is going. Don't we this is conventionally kind of a gift to president trump as we head into an election year it completely reinforces his undrained swamp deep state conspiring ordering to fool. The People's will thing doesn't it well. I think everyone is playing toward the undecided voter right now and we don't know what they think. It is possible that there's a group of if you look for example at suburban women in the Midwest whose frustration with trump has been growing who voted Surprisingly in favor of some Democratic candidates in key Republican districts for the last congressional race that group of people may be impacted acted. But there's no question that the Republican base is squarely in support of president trump and the democratic base is squarely in support of Speaker Pelosi and the Impeachment Schmidt trial. So everyone's playing to the Middle Right now and to knows how that will pan out ultimately. Well let's take a look at what we might expect from the trial itself self mean obviously we can expect it will be a total circus because everything that president trump touches becomes one but is it possible that Republicans can basically cle- Stymie the whole thing. Because if I've got this right a simple majority not. A two-thirds majority is needed to approve. Rules or call witnesses. And if Mitch McConnell Donald can take keep the entire. GOP Senate onboard. They can basically stop anything from happening. Company yeah they could push it through without any witnesses without got any meaningful discussion. The only things that we know for certain is that there will be opening statements given. That's it and what Speaker Pelosi is calculating at this moment in time is that there's enough evidence coming out that should push McConnell into holding some kind of trial that this new evidence about the president's advisors You know using surveillance and tried to damage Biden and the current ambassador and Ukraine. Rain that all of that is going to have enough impact and that he'll be effectively shamed into holding some kind of trial. Now that's still a gamble. Let Me Mitch. McConnell is not easily shamed and so he could very well decide to just push this forward without without regard for that new evidence on the subject of Ukraine reaching back to what you were saying earlier about the possibility of new information emerging. We were treated last night to an I. Are you always feel like. I need to insert the phrase even by current standards but even by current standards bizarre interview given by one of Rudy. Giuliani's these bagman live partners to Rachel maddow MSNBC. I mean assuming that we can take Mr partners at his word. It's it's more or less entirely. Dampening of trump's conduct something like that shift anything anymore. It's not clear it really corroborates information. That's already out there. I mean from this summer's whistle blower account every bit of information. That's come out has suggested. The president was aware of what was happening in Ukraine and that the president was was supportive of what was happening in Ukraine. And so it's not. It's not clear to me if you've already had the president's own ambassadors say that yes there was this The plan to dirty up Biden from coming from a Republican someone who supported the trump campaign. And that's not enough. It's not clear that that having less parnasse or any other Number folks further corroborate could further corroborate. Those allegations will make a difference but the the question that that I don't know the answer to is. What would sway Republican opinion or have we become so triable that it's just there's no way I mean? He poked thanks as always waist for joining us. You're listening to the briefing now with a look at the day's headlines Series Monaco's yelling go fund thanks. Andrew pro-government forces in Venezuela have attacked a convoy voyage political opponents outside the country's parliament the opposition leader who on Guido has claimed that the violence had forced him to transfer a planned meeting to a building on the outskirts. The Venezuelan capital Caracas. Television cameras are to be allowed to film in Crown Courts in England and Wales for the very first time the judiciary broadcasters there's Andy. UK government have welcome to move. We'll have more on the story with our news panel a little later on today's program and today's wonderful minute reports that Sacramento is now home to the largest on demand public transit system in the US. SMART ride allows the city's passengers using their smartphones to halo bus to a nearby pickup location for more on this has to Monaco dot com slash minutes. Does today's headlines back to you Andrew. Thank you your lane. Now in the last twenty four hours or so no phrase. We'll have been more heavily. googled in Russia than Mikhail Shusterman. The Economist and former ahead of the federal tax service appears the major beneficiary of yesterday surprise rearrangement arrangement of Russia's government by President Vladimir Putin Misdemeanor Huston has been nominated by President Putin to become Russia's next prime minister following the acceptance since by the Russian government of president. Putin's invitation to resign on mass. One joined with more on this in the studio by Stephen Deal. The Russia analyst Stephen Even as a long time Russia observe about twenty four hours ago. What would you have also done? MNUCHIN appear not being a gambling man in any case as per pretty long wanted heard of him it reminded me rather when Boris Yeltsin when he was still rushing president in August. Ninety nine hundred nine pointed Ledesma Putin as his new prime minister and everyone said let him know who he is global course of who the hell is he had. Look where we are now indeed So yeah it doesn't surprise me is that he has chosen a complete known entity that no one knows and someone who's not even really a politician because you've been head of the Tax Service Service But he is one of the circle. It's been very interesting watching twitter this morning and seeing following a number of Russians who don't necessarily spout the Kremlin line and Seeing things coming out about him the fact that his his wife earned eight million rubles over ten years which is about five times the annual salary and no one quite knows what she does the fact that he has a A son at school in Switzerland at a very expensive school I'm sure he has just been diligently saving his public servant Wages Ages and he'd have to save pretty damn hard not spending at all. I mean I guess to ask the obvious question. Is this all somehow about Volodymir Putin building a framework which will allow him to persist past two thousand twenty four as things currently stand of course He has to leave the presidency the on that date because he is in theory term limited in a word yes. It's obviously not quite as simple as that. But in two thousand and eight when On Putin completed his second term as president he did all of the constitution nominally by stepping down because the Russian constitution as it is now the nineteen ninety-three constitution says that the president cannot serve more than two consecutive terms So he put in his place. He was prime minister. Putin with Prime Minister Affect Freestyle Ran. The country came back in twenty one thing that Medvedev had done while he was there ensure that the parliament had passed a law saying that presidential term would be six years from now not four four years so Putin's now into his second six year term. So he wants to show look. This is a democracy. I on the constitution so he's signaling that he he will step down as president under the present terms but of course he's also signalled that there could be a new constitution by then and the new constitution might have it that the president doesn't doesn't have a restriction on the number of terms he can serve construct consecutively in which case Pepsi will carry on President. But it they they seem to be A number of options being bandied around. So that might happen happen. And he may give greater power to the the State Council which features all the governors with regions which he chairs anyway and suddenly the Chairman Limited State Council might become the most important person in which case the president could be a rather likelihood of German figure who symbolic and not really running the country So that that's another option He may say parliament has more power. I mean one of the things that amused me some of initial countries. They said that well he'd said Parliament Parliament will now appoint the prime minister then in the next breath he said and the president will have the power to veto that decision. So he's not really giving parliament under his buddy said yesterday. A huge amount of real power if what is going on here and it does seem the what's going on here. Is that Vladimir. Putin is attempting to inaugurate himself as effectively president for life. Do we have a sense of how that is going to play with actual Russians. I mean for all that Russian opinion in Paul's or anything you can rely on Putin does poll actually reasonably pretty favorably. But I I mean I. It's a difficult thing to reconcile with the audio that you are living in even a nominal democracy it is an the extraordinary thing to those of us looking from the outside. Is that despite the fact that Putin has now now been running the country for twenty years and in that time living conditions of fallen poverty has increased dramatically. The birth rate has fallen all of which he addressed rest yesterday as well actually in his speech. This has been rather overlooked because the second. The other people's bombshell of isn't changing the constitution but he acknowledged but he put all the blame on the government matt hence the government resigned. Because it hadn't done very well on these issues the real numbers. This can be my fault. I've only been president for twenty years absolutely so. How much longer can he go on saying that to to the people of course all almost all media in Russia is controlled by the by the government by the state So people. We must also remember that that that Moscow and Petersburg Russia in Russia is that huge country and the vast majority of people never traveled abroad would never meet a foreigner. Don't speak our language. And so they do get the information from the state media which means that The the opinion polls and so on that shows that he is very popular true in in the heart of the country. He is very popular because people don't know anything else and he's managed to keep up this idea that the government's fault the government has is responsible for taxation and pensions and school meal as he mentioned yesterday as well. We're going to give children hop school meals between the ages of four four and seven anyway And so all these things. He's he's kept that as someone else's fault Russia often say there are two questions they they love. Most of all one is What are we going to do? And the other is who's to blame and there was the way of saying someone else's to blame and Putin is very much playing that game at the moment. Just finally to allay to indulge indulge in a bit of old fashioned Kremlinology because it is something that makes me curious about the Colt Vladimir Putin is there no indication I mean clearly he's not making that elementary mm entry mistake of instituting any sort of succession plan because that tended to give the people in the lineage big ideas but is genuinely no indication of any body eighty in Russia or in his circle thinking come on might give someone else a crack not that we know of they they if they're if they're thinking that they've kept it very much to themselves because because what he has succeeded in doing particularly in this his third term and the present term is give ultimate power to the power ministries. The permanency doesn't mean electricity. Means that the secret service is the army The the the interior ministry in their their true. He's created effectively. A private army for example called Ross. Gerrad got more men in it and they tend to be thugs the actual army has so. He's he's he's used Physical Physical Strength to to keep people where he wants them and that goes for his the politicians around him as well. So no one has put the head above the parapet. Because they're so afraid would get no twelve stephen deal thanks as always for joining us. You're listening to the briefing monocle Rolex. Renew the pioneers. The pine fine as a brand new series that tells the stories of people improving the planet. A heroic supports the innovators with whom they share a passion to safeguard in the F for future generations gain precious insight into the fresh thinking that is disrupting received wisdom for the better and learn how Phyllis action continues to be the crucial driver of change. The pine his in partnership with Rolex. You are listening to the briefing with me Andrew. Camila it's time now to take a longer look at some of the day's other big stories on joined on today's panel by Alex Fong Toman The historian author and screenwriter and Mary Leconte political journalist and author. You should by all of their books as soon as you finish listening to this. First of all four an unprecedented two days running news panel is going to look at the internal machinations of the Vatican. Yesterday we address the apparent disagreement between the current and previous pope over taking a more flexible approach to priestly celibacy. Today we'll look at what an apparent Seidel away from another cornerstone of the Church's thinking which has long held that while women may have their uses. They're not really cut out for senior executive office. However ever Pope Francis has for the first time named a woman to the Vatican's secretariat of state? which handles the churches diplomatic relations she is? Francesca Giovanni Johny A long-serving Vatican lawyer Murray Festival are never quite sure what the correct acknowledgement is when a somewhat ossified institution drags it so kicking and screaming into the eighteenth century in this respect do we give them A. Is it Maury round of applause or a slow hand clap I would probably go for the slayer Ham club. I feel at people saying that. This is a big victory of massive move is it. Is it really the singular woman really to a job you know that that's another is relatively senior but is not. He'd need that no. I'm not impressed. I'll be honest Alex and you. I mean there's a similar question I guess it's always an we've seen it a lot in the coverage of this regarding you're describing Pope Francis says progressive. I mean these things are always relative but but seriously I mean it's within an institution that really does move as glacial pace over the centuries and not always in a forward direction or progressive direction to An I mean you know good. I suppose we're still quite a long way off sale woman becoming poke for instance Yeah good I suppose. I'm glad we didn't hang out the bunting and Organiz fireworks for this one. I mean the fact is the well seem. It's the fact I've never been pope in. It's it's it's unlikely I will be asked for a variety of reasons but I suspect one of the things you do have to take into consideration that trivial relatively vo. This seems there's going to be a significant noisy cohort of his flock who are going to find some way to be outraged by this. Probably and obviously there's a huge quite conservative conservative presidents within the church. Vatican's why do you think that you know pope. Francis could not have to select turn up and said by the way from now on Hoffa workforce of the Vatican will be women woman identified. It could have worked out. Second me crude. He kids whether that would be a good decision vision for the future of the Catholic in feature. I'm not entirely sure But then as I do think you know may maybe actually were being a bitchy snarky and maybe actually it. It is eight seven the right direction but all say the pace at which they can realistically move on that thought again. It's a it's a wide to question which which gets raised by things like this. which is that? Are we still for all that. It is now the year twenty twenty and this is supposed to supposed to be an age of reason enlightenment and so forth are we still generally actually too indulgent of any sort of ultra conservative backwardness when it is presented as religion religion. I mean if this was any sort of other major bureaucratic or governmental organization this would be regarded as outrageous. Yes and I mean the kind gold status that this situation has because of course the Catholic Church as a church can really do what it likes. I mean if people want to join US conservative. And that's really their business religion agents a private matter but it is also in terms of the Vatican. It is a state It it obviously has power that extends beyond the borders of that state is well particularly in parts of the world in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Various places that have large Catholic Christian populations parts of Africa as well This has a huge influence policy. So it's it's a bit different from a source of regular religion in terms of its institutional power on the other hand. It's complicated to say whether that makes accountable because the structure of religion is not a democracy. I mean people of course all free to leave it. Should they not like what it's doing. And there are sort of internal battles over at me and we've really seen that with Not Sir refers cinematic version even the two popes The currently hey around You know and and Rats and together former Pope Benedict you. Know has certainly not being quiet about his more conservative failings in the face of these enormous forms Like possibly rethinking that regional priests should be allowed to marry which obviously some people find very threatening But I think it's it's complicated ballots and I still feel that in a way outside just like me. I mean I'm not a Catholic there's limited extent to which I can have opinions. I can talk about it but you know none of my business. Marie is is there a thing as well and this is the second question. I'm going to put which my son on vaguely sympathetic to Pope Francis. It is a strange job. He has but he is their thing with any church. Like I guess other institutions which were founded centuries ago somehow persisted light royal families that if you modernize them past a certain in point you kind of end up on the morning the point of them. That's a very tough question. You have forty I'm not sure that that's I'm not entirely sure what to say to that. I suppose that again you know. I didn't think that I think that there has been revolutionary popes in the past things in this area as well for them so I think that that has appointed kind of moving slow pace and again you know I think when you compare what trump's France's actually has done so far with the way it's being covered you know it has very much been covered you know. He's sort of like great. So basically Seychelle Justice Warrior when again you know. He's done things like appointing one woman. I think he's really playing it quite well. Okay well let's move along somewhat but persist with the the theme of secretive and old fashioned institutions tiptoeing nervously into the sunlight and into the future for the first time television cameras are to be permitted into Crown Coats in England and Wales trials will not be televised as such broadcasts would be limited to the sentencing remarks of judges in criminal cases of significant public public interest so courtroom sketch artists need not seek alternative employment. Just yet Alex we will come along to the various Strictures being placed on this development but in general where are you on televising court proceedings in general. I think I've heard mixed views from the people that are actually involved. You Know Lawyers Bar Council and so on I mean I I think actually you know an Olympic context. This is about sentencing remarks. It's not about the whole trial trial. So everybody's cautious trying voiceover J Simpson Spectacle. And I think that's right. Try Avoid I actually think this could be quite a good thing on the basis that you know what we quite often here is simply the verdicts in any given Trial especially high profile ones often all sentencing remarks which really make a lot more sensitive verdict if you read them but they don't get the kind of publicity often that the simple verdict does so you're going to be coming out with all incredibly light sentence so oh you know this is up and actually without the context. It's sometimes quite difficult. I think to communicate that so I think it could be quite good potentially public communication to actually you know in the public understanding of the Lord engaged Gagen with the law to put sentencing remarks out. There I know there are some reservations in the ball council about it leading to attacks on individual judges And unpack sort of intimidation of them I mean if they feel that their faces gauge beyond the tally Does that somehow inhibit them I mean it is a concern but I think these things have to be balanced against each other in terms of their benefits and cost. Marie USA is something in that this idea that broadcasting broadcasting the sentencing remarks at least will remind people that it is often more complicated than it might look that just life in general the Lauren in general because it is something I have observed in my years of living among the British. I can't claim the destroying immune from this is that is that the the general reaction certainly certainly the online reaction to Basically any conviction for the most trivial crime is that the person does convicted should be probably drawn quartered beheaded remains locked up and the key thrown ceremoniously away. Would it help this. Perhaps take a encourage people to take a more nuanced view of justice. And I would hope so because I do think I've seen it was so many court cases especially on twitter and I'd like to think that I actually kind of nerdy on the nerd year end of the bubble media media but still. Yeah the amount of kind of decisions coming out and people criticizing them hugely and then two nephews people normally barristers kind kind of new meekly tweeting saying but you know actually if you would read what I can actually read i. It will make a lot more sense so I do think that everyone in and I'm sure I've done as well. It's very crazy to look at sentencing and just have opinions. I think forcing that putting into context. especially if it's going I think the purpose of it is to show On the news on Telly I think having being you know being able to have that segment of at an even eight thirty forty seconds of the judge can explaining something I would hope would help but as I said I do think that there there is one concern about the safety of judges especially in licking kind of You know the headlines. I think we've had over the past year. So I think enemies of the people being the obvious example Temple We do live in very polarized times. So whether that's actually going to be a warrior no I'm not sure I I'd like to thank you will not be. I do think it it it. It may end up being a problem down the line. Alex what do we make of the restrictions that so far at least two going to govern this development because as you the noting early it will just be the judge on camera. They won't be the victims. No jurors no witnesses no lawyers and so forth. Are they taking this slowly. I I think almost Vatican Spin I think the it's it's a cautious move and I think it's probably right to be cautious me for exactly the reasons we've been discussing if there is a kind of backlash to this. If there is trouble if it does get difficult I think they want to be able to move back from that and I think that's quite difficult school to feed gone the whole way to then reel it in. I think it's easier to bring it out bit by I think say quite seriously and I mean we already. You're in a situation Russian where it high profile trials people will. There will be banks of photographers outside taking pictures. It is very hard to hi- People's identities already a problem. It's a problem from with the collapse of trials. Of course sometimes you know when this when people start expressing their opinions on social media This can be prejudicial all sorts of you know I. It's right so ready. Pro having the general public giving their opinion and getting votes. I think it's kind of wise actually to limit that is there a worry Though Murray that we we may end up In eventually in a situation similar to the United States will maybe. You'll massively in favor of it. I don't know Alex mentioned early. The obvious ninety plus all of this which was the the trial of O. J. Simpson Circa. I should know this because I was in America. At the time nineteen ninety-five. I guess which was just an extraordinary absurd media circus and I I can remember feeling personally. This doesn't seem like how justice could shoot work when I was in like a bar in New York City tea at lunch time rammed full of people who come in off the street to hear the verdict. I just thought this see this would see me. convivial atmosphere for I didn't know a key sporting fixture you but this is a murder trial. This seems a bit weird I I mean I have to say. I was a child when that happened. So I didn't really have any to commemorate like shades to back up. My opinion Indian I I doubt it will happen. I do think there's a slight cultural differences. Wola I don't I don't actually. I can't really picture so like British. The British people can attending ending up in pubs watching murder trials. I don't really think it would have been writing was in quite interesting about the move. Is that everyone. Broadly seems to be quite happy with. It's like reading about it and actually most people in politics and on the law side seemed happy. I don't think it would be anyone's interest right now to change that or even the the next few years again I I really think that's something we have to worry about the next two years and again you know it's maybe a cliche thing to say the UK is going to have to deal with so much stuff over the next few years. So I think that I'm not sure. How much bandwidth there will be other issues anyway over the next flight? Five to even ten years bought moving seamlessly alone to that not so much stuff that the UK is going to have to deal with We should look finally on today's news panel at the further evidence that if the United Kingdom were a person it's younger relatives teams would have hidden. It's car keys and started putting their initials on the valuables. Britain's discourse of recent days has been consumed to disconcerting extent by a debate on whether the moment of Brexit. A little over fifteen days from now should be marked with the tolling of Big Ben the bill in Elizabeth Tower at the Palace of Westminster. Because the bill all is currently being restored this would necessitate a temporary restoration of the clapper. At an estimated. Cost of half million quid. A noisy cohort of the insane in believe this would be money. WELL SPENT ALEX regular listeners. To Monaco. Twenty four will probably be broadly aware of Al General View View where Brexit is concerned with. We probably aren't going to regard Friday week as a moment for Friday week Friday. Two weeks moment for celebration but even if is what strikes me about this even if you're somebody who's passionately invested in Brexit and passionately excited about it's happening in L. delivery to the sunlit uplands of whatever why would you care about this. He's I think he's got an old thing isn't it seems you know. There's a lot that I would care about in Brexit more than this. If I was a big thing and everything else would seem to me more important at the same time I do think you know I mean actually. I know this is unusual for me to say because I am a remainder and I'm in line on generally with the principles of This station that But actually I think if they want to have a policy. That's fine by me you know. I don't think kind of I think it remains to be careful not to be seen as you know stopping that because it's quite petty to stop it just into petty to have it in the first place but honestly I think they should be allowed to have the party if somebody does want to raise half a million quid to do this. I think that's fine. Don't really think it's brilliant use of tax money but actually that is what the prime minister has said You know there's this attempt to raise it privately space and you know if that's what people want to spend the money on then I suppose they're entitled to do so I think it's a difficult thing from the point of view of any future relationship ship with the European Union to look very celebrate. ery about the moment of leaving and it's obviously difficult thing in the country largest while which is still heavily divided on this issue And I think you know it's perhaps when there should be some celebrations Is when they make such a wonderful success of Brexit Once there's something to celebrate perhaps we can join. Marie is that is there something about this. Particular flap about Big Ben which has been indicative of Brexit. As a whole I mean I I think Alex is is entirely right if people who have worked and campaigned and yearn for this moment for a long time. Want to celebrate. Finally getting it fine. I can't see why anybody would would object to that. But is there something telling in the fact that certain cheerleaders for the BREXIT cores instead of organizing their massive party. Massive celebration have chosen. Isn't fixate. We've morbid obsessive obsessively. Is that even though you know what I'm saying. Have chosen to fixate morbidly on the one thing they can't have that they are being swatted from having by I don't know whoever's been faulting them that's two things the first one. She agreed Alex. I think if you're actually a very very committed brexit here and you were very happy on the twenty fourth of Gene Twenty six in the morning then Brexit has now been delayed several times so I can actually sort of understand the obsession with being you know all it can be anything it just has to be a symbol of. This is finally happening but equally. I think no I so agree with your point in that I think and that's remain is Brexit as as I think have been so used to jumping anything to be at each other's throats consistent the puzzle at three and a half years That is just become a habit so I do think that race it's still very much in that. Mindset of anything that happens is got to be a fight. You know. We've got to feel strongly about this and we've ever felt about anything is just a mindset which again and I think the remains have as well because the second that started you obviously had the other side saying you will. This country has gone to the dogs. Giving on. So you think it is just again kind of Nitty pavilion. The and at this point anything about Brexit you've got to take your side and in the trenches and start sheeting. Alex that does sound like an uncannily accurate diagnosis. Because it is weird. It has just now occurred to me. How incredible at ease to think of the parallel discourse in which you might have had breakfast thing? We quite like Big Ben to toll at the moment and being told well the bells being restored it will cost a fortune. It'll be a whole thing but you could do something else in the breakfast. Yeah Right. That seems fair fine. We'll just think. How far do you think we are as a nation from getting anywhere near point again? which that sort of conversation can be had? Well I mean. I think it's going to be a huge challenge. Isn't it because it doesn't seem I mean as as Maria said it doesn't seem to be ramping down. A tool people are still very much in this kind of Faisal flight mindset. I mean I suppose as I think a lot will depend on what happens this year And the two crucial dates kind of at the end of July at the end of December the potential date for any kind of delay and then the end of December. Remember the moment the They were actually leaving because of course what's going to happen really on the on. The first January is just a Sorta e you will still apply apply in February. And of course you have lots of people if you look look nothing's changed. It was all nonsense. It was all you know what a load of Nazi we'll be saying for the last couple of other people just as angry agree that we haven't already started rounding up Latvians yes absolutely they will And I mean you know we all misapprehension about a generally I mean actually nothing's really changed until December Because that's when when the you know the transition period is over theoretically we move into whatever the new phases which we don't currently know what it is. I mean there is you know personals and has a very large majority he now has A year really to see whether he can pull people together and get behind this project. We know that they are on employing certain strategies. They want to stop talking about the word Brexit the thirty first of January. I wish them luck with that. But I think that's going to be quite tricky. I think that word is now so embedded in our national consciousness that it's going to be quite hard to win people over but you. I know that's what they're going to try to do. is to move it into different phase. I think it is tricky unless they can come up with some sort of deal that perhaps should have been the case all along that was quite often often satisfies. Most people in the Middle East. Shall we say annoys everybody equally on the fringes. I cannot help but feel myself that the moment two weeks from tomorrow is somehow going to be herald by mark. Francois swaddled in a union. Jack on the roof of the Palace of Westminster. Shouting Bong through loudhailer Ed Murray Likud Alex Funds Tons Allman. Thank you both very much for joining us. You're listening to the briefing You're listening to the briefing time now to take a look the latest business headlines and joined as usual by Bloomberg's and bugs you and pots We will start with optimism in the world of microchips. Andrew Yes t s MC may not be a company which you know a great deal about apologies if you do. Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing is the world's biggest contract chip maker and it's today being issuing some rather punchy projections quarterly revenue growth now having some concerns amongst investors. The world's largest chipmaker could have problems with the tightening tightening restrictions on hallway. The Chinese furniture the leader in mobile technology and the rollout of the new five G.. Networks has been facing increasing pressure from the US and its allies concerns over ten tech security which the company denies but the Chairman of M. C.. Today saying that if it should lose holy business then those orders can very quickly replaced from other customers. Currently about ten percent of the company's revenues to Kuala Away Apple is also the apples main chip maker to apple comes really banking on the roll out of these fifth-generation enabled smartphones during twenty twenty and over the next couple of years northbound money being spent building these new networks a real boom for TSMC. It's a pretty interesting business chip business. According to one estimate the whole thing's worth about four hundred ten billion dollars. It's an enormous sector but it's very very cyclical worse than a lot of other sectors. Twenty nine team is not a good year across the sector. Revenues dropped by about twelve percent but Taiwan's having sully optimistic about this year. Cohort of people possibly less optimistic one with one thing and another mobile phone operators in India. Yeah I think Vati certainly a fair to say. Thirteen billion dollars is the cost to them of a co- case just been settled in the Indian Dean Supreme Court now. This has been rumbling. On for as long as twenty years the big mobile phone operators in India including Bharti airtel and Vodafone I dea have been challenging the way the authorities calculate their annual adjusted gross revenue now. That number is used to work out the amount of money which is paid hi to the government in license and spectrum fees and they've been disputing the way it's worked out but it's finally reached the top of the Indian court system and they have ruled in the government's is favor and this bill could be or we know it is as much as four billion dollars for Vodafone's India venture for three billion dollars for Bharti airtel title. Thirteen billion dollars across the sector. A lot of money is just the latest setback for mobile operators. India it's been a really really rough place to be running a mobile business back in twenty sixteen the new entry by Billionaire really disrupted the industry by offering free cool and cheap data not welcome by the other players at all so it's been a really tough place and this is not welcome news on top of that you and pulse. What's at Bloomberg? Thanks for joining us. You are listening to the briefing on monocle. Twenty four turn. This is the briefing with me. Andrew last month's UK general election. Victory by Boris Johnson's Conservative Party was the result of a a number of factors principally impatience among many voters over delays to Brexit and or suspicion of opposition leader. Jeremy Corbyn inside the Conservative Party itself itself however much credit is being extended to a young Australian political. Strategist Isaac La Vida. Here's a look at who the heck he even is at the end of this month. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union and in so doing fulfill the key election pledge of conservative prime minister. Boris Johnson. To you get brexit done. We have followed that. He's paralyzed blocked. Dinner Lean capable of functioning as Anaconda that swallowed the neither moving one way on the other. He's lean except of course that brexit will not get done on January thirty first Brexit exit will not get close to done on January thirty first if and when Brexit can truly be said to have got done it will be still further pointless tedious Diaz wasted years from now but none of this matters to the Prime Minister and party. Who promised to do it? What does matter at least to them is that they won a thumping majority in last month's general election for that the Tories Oak considerable thanks and have doubtless already paid considerable? Money to a rashly officially beaded thirty something from Port Macquarie New South Wales who served as the Party's campaign director. His name is Isaac Lovato. It is. It's always hard to know how much credit to extend to such figures. Strategists spin-doctors string-pullers special advisers. It seems reasonable to assume the people capable of subtly manipulating public opinion in favor of their paymasters Also able to cunningly inflate their own reputation for being able to do so but there is little doubt that Levino presently basks in the warmest regard of the recently returned conservatives Dominic Cummings Boris orest Johnson's senior adviser and a man not known for self deprecation in much. The same way that circles are not known for being square has described Libido As a hundred times better at running campaigns than me so who exactly is is a collado and how did he get here. La Vida learned his trade from his fellow. Australian Lynton Crosby a veteran political strategist. Who has made something of a speciality of coordinating somewhat belligerent and populist campaigns for parties wrightwood of center in Australia and elsewhere though crosby's record in the UK is not one of unalloyed success excess? He did twice help. Boris Johnson get elected mayor of London no small accomplishment in a city not generally hospitable to conservatives Isaac veto worked on Crosby's twenty seventeen general election campaign for Theresa May an enduring. Listen perhaps in what not to do as a nation. We face the most important potent five years. I can remember. That is why I took the decision to call a general election so that we have a strong and stable leadership we need old to see us through brexit and beyond but La Vida made his name properly back in Australia in two thousand eighteen where he served as deputy director of the Liberal Party party. Australia's annoyingly named Conservative Party in May two thousand nineteen the Liberals led by incumbent. Prime Minister Scott Morrison steeled themselves also a general election which nobody believed they could win. With the apparent exception of Isaac La Vida veto helped create a strategy which relied on a ruthless roofless focus on the merits of the prime minister such as they were the shortcomings of the opposition leader and brutally simple messaging. It was a template readily adaptable optimal to Boris Johnson. Jeremy Corbyn and getting brexit done as is proper for a habit to of the shadows. LA- Vito has done little press press and let little be known about him. The impression conveyed by colleagues however is far from that of a fire breathing bully reports to Picton Ernest. Decisive voices won't see working eighteen hour days and maintaining a clear focus on what is required for victory undistracted by the gaffes bloopers or short circuits of the candidate which in a campaign for Boris Johnson must require a superhuman serenity libido and his pair of young New Zealander Digital Gurus. Ben guerin and Sean topping also understood that social media campaigns need to be effective rather than outwardly sophisticated. They were clearly on embarrassed to be seen pushing what looked to anybody but angry. Daily Mail reading pensioners like absurd amateurish. Nonsense Libido was not however shy about removing other senior Tories from the spotlight. At the end of Shepherd's Crook early in the campaign at related would housing and Mannequin Jacob. Rees Mogg intoned some ill-advised remarks about the victims of the two thousand seventeen grenfell tower disaster. I think if either of us were in a fire whatever the brigade said we would leave the burning building. It just seems the common sense thing to do and it is such a tragedy that that didn't happen but I didn't do with race or class. Rees MOGG has has bailey been heard from since and for that much. Even the most ardent remainder should extend Isaac La Vida Victory Chewed for monocle twenty four. I'm Andrew Mullen monocle rolex. Bring you the pioneers. For the founder of Rolex Hands Wills dove the world was like Living Laboratory. He began to use it as a testing in ground for his watches from the nineteen thirties. Sending them to the most extreme locations supporting explorers who ventured into the unknown but the world has changed as the twenty for century unfolds. Exploration pure discovery has given way to exploration as a means to preserve the natural world rolex continues this legacy of its founder supporting voting explorers of day on the new mission to make the planet perpetual. Learn more with the pioneers in partnership with Rolex you are listening to the briefing with me. Andrew Mueller joined now by Mongols Senior Editor Rob bound to take a look at the new edition of Molecules Winter Weekly. This has been. This is a bit of a weight from edition. Three four of the current buses sort of matured over Christmas. I like none none. None of the rest of us So yes this is going to feature a bit of rustling of pages familiarize myself re familiarize myself audience intimately familiar this issue for the last one of our winter newspapers for the season And this one is centered into on Davos world economic kicking off next week in in in the Swiss mountains in the Alps. And we've deconstructed how the powers that be put on the devils Depend on the World Economic Forum on. We've broken things down. Statistics unsurprisingly. There's a bit of aviation spotters kind of stuff in here. A bit of plane-spotters stuff. I'm seeing a lot lot of helicopters on at anyone not at any one time over the course of the week. They'll be five hundred helicopters dashing out in hovering over the town There's one thousand five million for exactly and then presumably there'll be a far display. They weren't like That I grew up on army bases. The Cat did not like folks no indeed the cat the cat did a brilliant serviceable impersonation US nation of looking ahead to tales just heat under the bed So we've kind of tried to deconstruct all sorts of different parts of the World Economic Forum an in opening out as well Including I mean such writers as Andrew Miller. I'm asking the essay section. I'm how Earth we can Be To miss the next. It may have been at the pre Christmas. Sheri's re reading your before Christmas. Rob How is it holding up it. It is a it's just a it's a big Cheshire. Cat Grin and Pros Andrew. You'll you'll contents have not settled in transit. Oh good law. It's good stuff I- unthinkingly thinking. They have a go at the Canadian Finance Minister in a section at the back telling people not address or or or minutes to do you. Can you know how to uh-huh dressing the cold. He came out doesn't a jacket and tie looking like a snow. Yeti last year's conference look like Michael Jak Stat. She needs a solid Crombie coat and a stout boot Andrew. What would you? We sporting a at the world economic for probably look like Michael Pilot in the lumberjack. He'd be making great use of the fluffy wind Wind proof microphone out of thought I would have not been invited. Wants to delegates it gets read. My Essay suspect I never will be what. What else do we have We kind of tried to take it And we've kind of tried a little bit of a left field look at it. So we've got we went. I walk with the aim. The artist Hamish Fulton Omega. I called him. Amish Baxter. The Amish Artists Hamish Fulton Who's he's walking artist he's he's G- up Everest eastern sort of various things? We've tried to take the theme of Mountains in many and varied ways. We tell you how to cook a rusty we look at Japan. Ski Industry Mystery various things like this. And all the time helicopters imagine the sound of helicopters circling overhead and terrifying security detail. The Light Putin has never seen in his life. If if only listeners could see your Kurtz like thousand yard stare mattering about L L helicopters just dislike loads and loads of helicopters. So you've got the ceiling fan here in studio one. Exactly exactly the speed to terrify any vet and read. But I know that that's one of one of your things We also look in in in a more serious note in terms of snowy conferences We go to Bavaria and look at the Munich strategy for him where These powers Bay behind will be discussing Ron and we'll see the US Iran Relationship and many other things they do that in the snow being Bavarians unsecured and people with a with a decent security detail they unsurprisingly know how to dress in a snowy landscape. Is that the whole phone line lederhosen look. They've got going going on the road. Let's have a look at some of the pitches we've got some there's certainly some stat Well they've probably come from questionable political pedigree. Yeah and on that faintly inflammatory note. Robert Baden. Thank you very much for joining us. That is issue four of the monocle. Winter weekly on a newsstand. We need you now. You're listening to the briefing. You're listening to the briefing with me. Andrew Miller and finally on today's show at this admittedly early stage of the new decade there are indications that the twenty twenties may prove a golden age for inexplicably revived old folk songs with vaguely unsavory nationalistic edges last week in the UK. In what would have seemed like quite turn up most of the nineteen seventy S and nineteen ninety S. The I tunes chart was topped by the Wolfe tones. Come out ye black interns and admittedly stirring pro. IRA anthem launched up the charts as a protest against a proposed commemoration commemoration of Early Twentieth Century. Irish police forces this week. It appears to be the ton off royals in the form of death Younes ammo heath currently I tunes. UK Number One. It goes like this. Ah and joining me now to explain. How this has happened is Monaco's Toronto? Bureau chief Thomas Lewis whose qualifications to comment may be gleaned from his accent. I cannot help but suspect. Today's producer reese. James may be in on this as well Thomas. First of all to a non Welsh Ashley. Listenership who is death even well devotee. Wine is often described by non well speakers as I guess. The Welsh language is answer to figures. Like Bob Dylan Joan Baez. You know he was really the sort of voice and the singer of the Welsh languages protest movements from May when he was in his twenty s in the sixties was convulsed by its own protest movements like there were around the world as well but he really is an iconic feet figure to Welsh Welsh speakers and Amal Heat. And I can't deny your had you know has at the back of standing on end hearing that close to anthem as you get really for. Lots of Welsh speakers is one of those. There's rare songs for well. Speaking people there is songs like this many countries around the world where no matter who you ask wherever they are they will know that you and they will know the chorus for certain and it really is something whether you agree with the politics of the song. That really is something quite universal among among Welsh speakers. And it's been a welcome under the real surprise that it's now hit. The U K I jeans charts is quite a quite surprising thing. I think philosopher s what will having established that. It's basically the Welsh equivalent to minute. Minute works down under and the role that fulfills the my people. We'll talk about the the content of the song shortly but the fact of it being number number one which is why we're talking about. How and why has this happened? Well it's happened because of a sort of nascent. I suppose kind of campaigns look at the the idea of Welsh into patterns now Welsh independence as a notion is quite different to say sort of ideas of independence in Scotland. Free example given that in Wales's for for decades been tied to the language itself and that's why figures like. WD One who wrote them. All he have become such tokens really and in such towering figures for many Welsh speakers because the idea of an independent Wales meant living and thriving language a language that campaigners will tell you that for for for centuries you know various invaders of Wales and the English I among them try to stamp out and kill off and Amal. He'd means we are still here. What divy they wanna saying there is the language is still here despite all the attempts to kill it off entirely so this new campaign trying to to raise awareness for for wash independence used it as the theme music if you like For for a television campaign they've launched and it really has gained gained traction in this with people far beyond I suppose the remits and musical terms at least the remits the target audience that he was trying to get at. I suppose I mean as I noted in the introduction it does through bizarre happenstance follow to the top of the charts the Wolfe tones. Come out you black and tans which is fairly unmistakable in that sentiment not least because it is in English but this song obviously is Sung in Welsh in there for the subtleties of it may be lost on non well L. Speakers but is is there the same kind of belligerence underpinning a to resist a different kind of vision of independence. Nationalism when is basically basically a roll call of the injustices that have been carried out against the Welsh people by the English over the centuries and the big scene. If if you like in the song is the nine hundred and sixty nine investiture of Prince Charles. As Prince of Wales which was a hugely controversial moment for Welsh speakers across Ross Wales given that the optics of the son of an English monarch now gaining the the crown of the historic. Welsh principalities With something to be fought again stand. There's a long and rich history to the militancy and the the sort of protests that surrounded US prevented nine hundred sixty nine. This was written in one thousand eighty one and released in nineteen eighty three. And since then given the Wales has had varying agreeing sort of fortunes. If you like at the hands as campaigners would say of of london-based governments it has gained various different. Guises over those. Yes I think Back in two thousand nine signed the first Welsh language record label celebrated its fortieth anniversary and the crowning of those celebrations is a big concert in the closing. Number of that concert was d'avray one with all joined by a huge roster of the current great and good of Welsh folk and pop singing all sang this song together and he had tears in his eyes and there was a real moment. I think for Welsh speakers. At least that really saw that. This song is kind of a universal thing really no matter. What political era you find? Find yourself head. Thomas Lewis in monocle Welsh embassy in Canada. Thank you very much for joining us. That is all for today. The briefing was produced by reese James Bay H on yelling Goffin. It was research by Nick. toomey studio manager today was Louis Allen. I'm Andrew thanks very much for listening and

United States president President Vladimir Putin government Alex prime minister Brexit trump United Kingdom Russia Speaker Pelosi Senate GOP Donald Trump Rolex Andrew Miller twitter Pope Francis Democratic Party Brexit